WorldWideScience

Sample records for wind hazard models

  1. Development of a Probabilistic Tornado Wind Hazard Model for the Continental United States Volume I: Main Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boissonnade, A; Hossain, Q; Kimball, J

    2000-01-01

    Since the mid-l980's, assessment of the wind and tornado risks at the Department of Energy (DOE) high and moderate hazard facilities has been based on the straight wind/tornado hazard curves given in UCRL-53526 (Coats, 1985). These curves were developed using a methodology that utilized a model, developed by McDonald, for severe winds at sub-tornado wind speeds and a separate model, developed by Fujita, for tornado wind speeds. For DOE sites not covered in UCRL-53526, wind and tornado hazard assessments are based on the criteria outlined in DOE-STD-1023-95 (DOE, 1996), utilizing the methodology in UCRL-53526; Subsequent to the publication of UCRL53526, in a study sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Pacific Northwest Laboratory developed tornado wind hazard curves for the contiguous United States, NUREG/CR-4461 (Ramsdell, 1986). Because of the different modeling assumptions and underlying data used to develop the tornado wind information, the wind speeds at specified exceedance levels, at a given location, based on the methodology in UCRL-53526, are different than those based on the methodology in NUREG/CR-4461. In 1997, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) was funded by the DOE to review the current methodologies for characterizing tornado wind hazards and to develop a state-of-the-art wind/tornado characterization methodology based on probabilistic hazard assessment techniques and current historical wind data. This report describes the process of developing the methodology and the database of relevant tornado information needed to implement the methodology. It also presents the tornado wind hazard curves obtained from the application of the method to DOE sites throughout the contiguous United States

  2. Wind vs Water in Hurricanes: The Challenge of Multi-peril Hazard Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    operational solution to collect wind and water level measurements, and to conduct observation based modeling of wind and water impacts. My presentation will discuss some of the challenges to wind and water hazard monitoring and modeling.

  3. Development of a tornado wind speed hazard model for limited area (TOWLA) for nuclear power plants at a coastline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Nohara, Daisuke; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Hattori, Yasuo

    2016-01-01

    It is necessary for Japanese electric power companies to assess tornado risks on the nuclear power plants according to a new regulation in 2013. The new regulatory guide recommends to select a long narrow strip area along a coast line with the width of 5 km to the seaward and landward sides as a target area of tornado risk assessment, because most of Japanese tornados have been reported near the coast line, where all of Japanese nuclear power plants are located. However, it is very difficult to evaluate a tornado hazard along a coast line, because there is no available information of F-scale and damage length/width on tornadic waterspouts. The purpose of this study is to propose a new tornado wind hazard model for limited area (TOWLA), which can be apply to a long narrow strip area along a coastline. In order to consider tornadic waterspouts moved inland, we evaluate the number of waterspouts entering/passing the targeting area, and add them to the total number of the tornado occurred in the area. A characteristic of the model is to use 'segment lengths' instead of damage lengths. The segment length is a part of the tornado foot print in the long narrow strip area. We show two methods for segment length computation. One is based on tornado records; latitude and longitude of tornado genesis and dissipation locations. The other is to compute the expected segment length based on the geometrical relationship among the damage length, area width, and directional characteristics of tornado movement. The new model can also consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and across the path width. (author)

  4. Methods for developing seismic and extreme wind-hazard models for evaluating critical structures and equipment at US Department of Energy facilities and commercial plutonium facilities in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coats, D.W.; Murray, R.C.; Bernreuter, D.L.

    1981-01-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is developing seismic and wind hazard models for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The work is part of a three-phase effort to establish building design criteria developed with a uniform methodology for seismic and wind hazards at the various DOE sites throughout the United States. In Phase 1, LLNL gathered information on the sites and their critical facilities, including nuclear reactors, fuel-reprocessing plants, high-level waste storage and treatment facilities, and special nuclear material facilities. Phase 2 - development of seismic and wind hazard models - is discussed in this paper, which summarizes the methodologies used by seismic and extreme-wind experts and gives sample hazard curves for the first sites to be modeled. These hazard models express the annual probability that the site will experience an earthquake (or windspeed) greater than some specified magnitude. In the final phase, the DOE will use the hazards models and LLNL-recommended uniform design criteria to evaluate critical facilities. The methodology presented in this paper also was used for a related LLNL study - involving the seismic assessment of six commercial plutonium fabrication plants licensed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Details and results of this reassessment are documented in reference

  5. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  6. Type IV Wind Turbine Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca Daniela; Margaris, Ioannis D.

    (WPP) will be considered. The aggregate WPP model, which will be based on the upscaling of the individual wind turbine model on the electrical part, will make use of an equivalent wind speed. The implemented model follows the basic structure of the generic standard Type 4 wind turbine model proposed...... by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), in the IEC61400-27-1 Committee Draft for electrical simulation models for wind power generation, which is currently under review, [1]. The Type 4 wind turbine model described in this report includes a set of adjustments of the standard Type 4 wind turbine model...... project to be incorporated in the wind power plant level. This document describes the Type 4 wind turbine simulation model, implemented in the EaseWind project. The implemented wind turbine model is one of the initial necessary steps toward integrating new control services in the wind power plant level...

  7. Modelling Wind for Wind Farm Layout Optimization Using Joint Distribution of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

    OpenAIRE

    Ju Feng; Wen Zhong Shen

    2015-01-01

    Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint distributions of wind speed and wind direction, which is based on the parameters of sector-wise Weibull distributions and interpolations between direction sectors. It is applied to the wind measurement data a...

  8. Semi-active control of monopile offshore wind turbines under multi-hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, C.

    2018-01-01

    The present paper studies the control of monopile offshore wind turbines subjected to multi-hazards consisting of wind, wave and earthquake. A Semi-active tuned mass damper (STMD) with tunable natural frequency and damping ratio is introduced to control the dynamic response. A new fully coupled analytical model of the monopile offshore wind turbine with an STMD is established. The aerodynamic, hydrodynamic and seismic loading models are derived. Soil effects and damage are considered. The National Renewable Energy Lab monopile 5 MW baseline wind turbine model is employed to examine the performance of the STMD. A passive tuned mass damper (TMD) is utilized for comparison. Through numerical simulation, it is found that before damage occurs, the wind and wave induced response is more dominant than the earthquake induced response. With damage presence in the tower and the foundation, the nacelle and the tower response is increased dramatically and the natural frequency is decreased considerably. As a result, the passive TMD with fixed parameters becomes off-tuned and loses its effectiveness. In comparison, the STMD retuned in real-time demonstrates consistent effectiveness in controlling the dynamic response of the monopile offshore wind turbines under multi-hazards and damage with a smaller stroke.

  9. Wind Farms: Modeling and Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimanzadeh, Maryam

    2012-01-01

    is minimized. The controller is practically feasible. Yet, the results on load reduction in this approach are not very significant. In the second strategy, the wind farm control problem has been divided into below rated and above rated wind speed conditions. In the above rated wind speed pitch angle and power....... Distributed controller design commences with formulating the problem, where a structured matrix approach has been put in to practice. Afterwards, an H2 control problem is implemented to obtain the controller dynamics for a wind farm such that the structural loads on wind turbines are minimized.......The primary purpose of this work is to develop control algorithms for wind farms to optimize the power production and augment the lifetime of wind turbines in wind farms. In this regard, a dynamical model for wind farms was required to be the basis of the controller design. In the first stage...

  10. Multi-hazard response analysis of a 5MW offshore wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, Evangelos; Sanz, A. Arrospide; Georgakis, Christos T.

    2017-01-01

    the structural integrity and reliability of these energy infrastructures. Along these lines, a multi-hazard environment was considered herein and the structural performance of a 5 MW offshore wind turbine was assessed through time domain analysis. A fully integrated model of the offshore structure consisting......Wind energy has already dominant role on the scene of the clean energy production. Well-promising markets, like China, India, Korea and Latin America are the fields of expansion for new wind turbines mainly installed in offshore environment, where wind, wave and earthquake loads threat...... of the blades, the nacelle, the tower and the monopile was developed with the use of an aeroelastic code considering the interaction between the elastic and inertial forces, developed in the structure, as well as the generated aerodynamic and hydrodynamic forces. Based on the analysis results, the dynamic...

  11. Wind speed dynamical model in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimanzadeh, Maryam; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2010-01-01

    , the dynamic model for wind flow will be established. The state space variables are determined based on a fine mesh defined for the farm. The end goal of this method is to assist the development of a dynamical model of a wind farm that can be engaged for better wind farm control strategies.......This paper presents a model for wind speed in a wind farm. The basic purpose of the paper is to calculate approximately the wind speed in the vicinity of each wind turbine in a farm. In this regard the governing equations of flow will be solved for the whole wind farm. In ideal circumstances...

  12. 77 FR 24505 - Hazard Mitigation Assistance for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-24

    ...] Hazard Mitigation Assistance for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings AGENCY... for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings. DATES: Comments must be received by... to protect existing one- and two-family residential buildings (not including manufactured housing...

  13. Modelling pulsar wind nebulae

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    In view of the current and forthcoming observational data on pulsar wind nebulae, this book offers an assessment of the theoretical state of the art of modelling them. The expert authors also review the observational status of the field and provide an outlook for future developments. During the last few years, significant progress on the study of pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe) has been attained both from a theoretical and an observational perspective, perhaps focusing on the closest, more energetic, and best studied nebula: the Crab, which appears in the cover. Now, the number of TeV detected PWNe is similar to the number of characterized nebulae observed at other frequencies over decades of observations. And in just a few years, the Cherenkov Telescope Array will increase this number to several hundreds, actually providing an essentially complete account of TeV emitting PWNe in the Galaxy. At the other end of the multi-frequency spectrum, the SKA and its pathfinder instruments, will reveal thousands of new pulsa...

  14. Modeling of Wind Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spacil, D.; Santarius, P. [VSB - Technical University of Ostrava, Department of Electrical Measurement, FEECS, 17. listopadu 15, 708 33 Ostrava- Poruba (Czech Republic); Dobrucky, B. [University of Zilina, Department of Mechatronics and Electronics, FEE, Univerzitna 1, 010 26 Zilina (Slovakia)

    2006-07-01

    The electrical power produced by the wind power plant has increased in the last years in the world and probably will increase further in the future. Therefore, wind power plants have a significant influence on the power production. In this article the connection of the wind turbine to a grid is described in order to determine the impact of the existing wind turbines as well as planned wind turbines on the grid and ensure the proper functioning of the wind turbine. The purpose of the presented work is to find an analytical generator model for the simulation of the wind power plant and determine the influence on the grid by programming with Matlab/Simulink.

  15. Modelling Wind for Wind Farm Layout Optimization Using Joint Distribution of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Ju; Shen, Wen Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint distribu......Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint...... quite well in terms of the coefficient of determination R-2. Then, the best of these joint distributions is used in the layout optimization of the Horns Rev 1 wind farm and the choice of bin sizes for wind speed and wind direction is also investigated. It is found that the choice of bin size for wind...... direction is especially critical for layout optimization and the recommended choice of bin sizes for wind speed and wind direction is finally presented....

  16. Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik

    Cost reductions for offshore wind turbines are a substantial requirement in order to make offshore wind energy more competitive compared to other energy supply methods. During the 20 – 25 years of wind turbines useful life, Operation & Maintenance costs are typically estimated to be a quarter...... the actions should be made and the type of actions requires knowledge on the accumulated damage or degradation state of the wind turbine components. For offshore wind turbines, the action times could be extended due to weather restrictions and result in damage or degradation increase of the remaining...... for Operation & Maintenance planning. Concentrating efforts on development of such models, this research is focused on reliability modeling of Wind Turbine critical subsystems (especially the power converter system). For reliability assessment of these components, structural reliability methods are applied...

  17. Active control: Wind turbine model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bindner, H.

    1999-01-01

    This report is a part of the reporting of the work done in the project 'Active Control of Wind Turbines'. This project aim is to develop a simulation model for design of control systems for turbines with pitch control and to use that model to designcontrollers. This report describes the model...... developed for controller design and analysis. Emphasis has been put on establishment of simple models describing the dynamic behavior of the wind turbine in adequate details for controller design. This hasbeen done with extensive use of measurements as the basis for selection of model complexity and model....... The models are all formulated as linear differential equations. The models are validated throughcomparisons with measurements performed on a Vestas WD 34 400 kW wind turbine. It is shown from a control point of view simple linear models can be used to describe the dynamic behavior of a pitch controlled wind...

  18. A combinatorial wind field model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimanzadeh, Maryam; Wisniewski, Rafal; Sloth, Christoffer

    2010-01-01

    of ordinary dierential equations (ODE). Considering some assumptions on the ow model (e.g. steadiness), the sys- tem can be approximated by a linear n dimensional system. Partitioning the state space into cells is performed by dening Lyapunov function sets, such that each cell is the region between two......This report is the deliverable 2.4 in the project Distributed Control of Large-Scale Oshore Wind Farms with the acronym Aeolus. The objective of this deliverable is to provide an understanding of the wind eld model and dynamic variations superimposed on the mean eld. In this report a dynamical...... model is developed for the wind ow in a wind farm based on nite volume method. Afterwards the model is transferred into a discrete framework called combinatorial, which determines the future behavior of the discrete system. In this regard, the dynamical model is de- rived and it is explained in terms...

  19. Active control: Wind turbine model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bindner, Henrik

    1999-07-01

    This report is a part of the reporting of the work done in the project `Active Control of Wind Turbines`. This project aim is to develop a simulation model for design of control systems for turbines with pitch control and to use that model to design controllers. This report describes the model developed for controller design and analysis. Emphasis has been put on establishment of simple models describing the dynamic behavior of the wind turbine in adequate details for controller design. This has been done with extensive use of measurements as the basis for selection of model complexity and model validation as well as parameter estimation. The model includes a simple model of the structure of the turbine including tower and flapwise blade bending, a detailed model of the gear box and induction generator, a linearized aerodynamic model including modelling of induction lag and actuator and sensor models. The models are all formulated as linear differential equations. The models are validated through comparisons with measurements performed on a Vestas WD 34 400 kW wind turbine. It is shown from a control point of view simple linear models can be used to describe the dynamic behavior of a pitch controlled wind turbine. The model and the measurements corresponds well in the relevant frequency range. The developed model is therefore applicable for controller design. (au) EFP-91. 18 ills., 22 refs.

  20. Equivalent models of wind farms by using aggregated wind turbines and equivalent winds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, L.M.; Garcia, C.A.; Saenz, J.R.; Jurado, F.

    2009-01-01

    As a result of the increasing wind farms penetration on power systems, the wind farms begin to influence power system, and therefore the modeling of wind farms has become an interesting research topic. In this paper, new equivalent models of wind farms equipped with wind turbines based on squirrel-cage induction generators and doubly-fed induction generators are proposed to represent the collective behavior on large power systems simulations, instead of using a complete model of wind farms where all the wind turbines are modeled. The models proposed here are based on aggregating wind turbines into an equivalent wind turbine which receives an equivalent wind of the ones incident on the aggregated wind turbines. The equivalent wind turbine presents re-scaled power capacity and the same complete model as the individual wind turbines, which supposes the main feature of the present equivalent models. Two equivalent winds are evaluated in this work: (1) the average wind from the ones incident on the aggregated wind turbines with similar winds, and (2) an equivalent incoming wind derived from the power curve and the wind incident on each wind turbine. The effectiveness of the equivalent models to represent the collective response of the wind farm at the point of common coupling to grid is demonstrated by comparison with the wind farm response obtained from the detailed model during power system dynamic simulations, such as wind fluctuations and a grid disturbance. The present models can be used for grid integration studies of large power system with an important reduction of the model order and the computation time

  1. Comparative Distributions of Hazard Modeling Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Abdul Wajid

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the comparison among the distributions used in hazard analysis. Simulation technique has been used to study the behavior of hazard distribution modules. The fundamentals of Hazard issues are discussed using failure criteria. We present the flexibility of the hazard modeling distribution that approaches to different distributions.

  2. Use of Citizen Science and Social Media to Improve Wind Hazard and Damage Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, F.; Meidani, H.

    2017-12-01

    Windstorm losses are significant in the U.S. annually and cause damage worldwide. A large percentage of losses are caused by localized events (e.g., tornadoes). In order to better mitigate these losses improvement is needed in understanding the hazard characteristics and physical damage. However, due to the small-scale nature of these events the resolution of the dedicated measuring network does not capture most occurrences. As a result damage-based assessments are sometimes used to gauge intensity. These damage assessments often suffer from a lack of available manpower, inability to arrive at the scene rapidly and difficulty accessing a damaged site. The use and rapid dissemination of social media, the power of crowds engaged in scientific endeavors, and the public's awareness of their vulnerabilities point to a paradigm shift in how hazards can be sensed in a rapid manner. In this way, `human-sensor' data has the potential to radically improve fundamental understanding of hazard and disasters and resolve some of the existing challenges in wind hazard and damage characterization. Data from social media outlets such as Twitter have been used to aid in damage assessments from hazards such as flood and earthquake, however, the reliability and uncertainty of participatory sensing has been questioned and has been called the `biggest challenge' for its sustained use. This research proposes to investigate the efficacy of both citizen science applications and social media data to represent wind hazards and associated damage. Research has focused on a two-phase approach: 1) to have citizen scientists perform their own `damage survey' (i.e., questionnaire) with known damage to assess uncertainty in estimation and 2) downloading and analysis of social media text and imagery streams to ascertain the possibility of performing `unstructured damage surveys'. Early results have shown that the untrained public can estimate tornado damage levels in residential structures with some

  3. Multi-hazard response analysis of a 5MW offshore wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, Evangelos; Sanz, A. Arrospide; Georgakis, Christos T.

    2017-01-01

    the structural integrity and reliability of these energy infrastructures. Along these lines, a multi-hazard environment was considered herein and the structural performance of a 5 MW offshore wind turbine was assessed through time domain analysis. A fully integrated model of the offshore structure consisting...... of the blades, the nacelle, the tower and the monopile was developed with the use of an aeroelastic code considering the interaction between the elastic and inertial forces, developed in the structure, as well as the generated aerodynamic and hydrodynamic forces. Based on the analysis results, the dynamic...

  4. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  5. Wind turbines and seismic hazard: a state-of-the-art review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, Evangelos; Thöns, Sebastian; Georgakis, Christos T.

    2016-01-01

    Wind energy is a rapidly growing field of renewable energy, and as such, intensive scientific and societal interest has been already attracted. Research on wind turbine structures has been mostly focused on the structural analysis, design and/or assessment of wind turbines mainly against normal...... and assessment of wind turbines. Based on numerical simulation, either deterministic or probabilistic approaches are reviewed, because they have been adopted to investigate the sensitivity of wind turbines’ structural capacity and reliability in earthquake-induced loading. The relevance of seismic hazard...

  6. An integrated modeling method for wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadaeinedjad, Roohollah

    To study the interaction of the electrical, mechanical, and aerodynamic aspects of a wind turbine, a detailed model that considers all these aspects must be used. A drawback of many studies in the area of wind turbine simulation is that either a very simple mechanical model is used with a detailed electrical model, or vice versa. Hence the interactions between electrical and mechanical aspects of wind turbine operation are not accurately taken into account. In this research, it will be shown that a combination of different simulation packages, namely TurbSim, FAST, and Simulink can be used to model the aerodynamic, mechanical, and electrical aspects of a wind turbine in detail. In this thesis, after a review of some wind turbine concepts and software tools, a simulation structure is proposed for studying wind turbines that integrates the mechanical and electrical components of a wind energy conversion device. Based on the simulation structure, a comprehensive model for a three-bladed variable speed wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator is developed. Using the model, the impact of a voltage sag on the wind turbine tower vibration is investigated under various operating conditions such as power system short circuit level, mechanical parameters, and wind turbine operating conditions. It is shown how an electrical disturbance can cause more sustainable tower vibrations under high speed and turbulent wind conditions, which may disrupt the operation of pitch control system. A similar simulation structure is used to model a two-bladed fixed speed wind turbine with an induction generator. An extension of the concept is introduced by adding a diesel generator system. The model is utilized to study the impact of the aeroelastic aspects of wind turbine (i.e. tower shadow, wind shears, yaw error, turbulence, and mechanical vibrations) on the power quality of a stand-alone wind-diesel system. Furthermore, an IEEE standard flickermeter model is implemented in a

  7. Wind model for offshore power simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Hervada Sala, Carme; Jarauta Bragulat, Eusebio; Gibergans Baguena, José; Buenestado Caballero, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Offshore wind energy is an alternative energy source of increased interest. A large offshore wind farms have been planned or under construction, mainly in northern Europe. One of the points needed to be able to implement offshore projects is to characterize and model the wind for marine generation. Models are needed for the design of the most appropriate control strategies. Some attempts have been done to do so; recently these models are implemented under a wind turbine block set in Matlab/Si...

  8. Advancements in Wind Integration Study Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Jones, W.; Searight, K.; Getman, D.; Harrold, S.; McCaa, J.; Cline, J.; Clark, C.

    2013-10-01

    Regional wind integration studies in the United States require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high-penetration scenarios. The wind data sets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as be time synchronized with available load profiles. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this paper fulfills these requirements. A wind resource dataset, wind power production time series, and simulated forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model run on a nationwide 2-km grid at 5-min resolution will be made publicly available for more than 110,000 onshore and offshore wind power production sites.

  9. Dynamic Models for Wind Turbines and Wind Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, M.; Santoso, S.

    2011-10-01

    The primary objective of this report was to develop universal manufacturer-independent wind turbine and wind power plant models that can be shared, used, and improved without any restrictions by project developers, manufacturers, and engineers. Manufacturer-specific models of wind turbines are favored for use in wind power interconnection studies. While they are detailed and accurate, their usages are limited to the terms of the non-disclosure agreement, thus stifling model sharing. The primary objective of the work proposed is to develop universal manufacturer-independent wind power plant models that can be shared, used, and improved without any restrictions by project developers, manufacturers, and engineers. Each of these models includes representations of general turbine aerodynamics, the mechanical drive-train, and the electrical characteristics of the generator and converter, as well as the control systems typically used. To determine how realistic model performance is, the performance of one of the models (doubly-fed induction generator model) has been validated using real-world wind power plant data. This work also documents selected applications of these models.

  10. Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik

    components. Thus, models of reliability should be developed and applied in order to quantify the residual life of the components. Damage models based on physics of failure combined with stochastic models describing the uncertain parameters are imperative for development of cost-optimal decision tools...... for Operation & Maintenance planning. Concentrating efforts on development of such models, this research is focused on reliability modeling of Wind Turbine critical subsystems (especially the power converter system). For reliability assessment of these components, structural reliability methods are applied....... Further, reliability modeling of load sharing systems is considered and a theoretical model is proposed based on sequential order statistics and structural systems reliability methods. Procedures for reliability estimation are detailed and presented in a collection of research papers....

  11. An Appropriate Wind Model for Wind Integrated Power Systems Reliability Evaluation Considering Wind Speed Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Karki

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Adverse environmental impacts of carbon emissions are causing increasing concerns to the general public throughout the world. Electric energy generation from conventional energy sources is considered to be a major contributor to these harmful emissions. High emphasis is therefore being given to green alternatives of energy, such as wind and solar. Wind energy is being perceived as a promising alternative. This source of energy technology and its applications have undergone significant research and development over the past decade. As a result, many modern power systems include a significant portion of power generation from wind energy sources. The impact of wind generation on the overall system performance increases substantially as wind penetration in power systems continues to increase to relatively high levels. It becomes increasingly important to accurately model the wind behavior, the interaction with other wind sources and conventional sources, and incorporate the characteristics of the energy demand in order to carry out a realistic evaluation of system reliability. Power systems with high wind penetrations are often connected to multiple wind farms at different geographic locations. Wind speed correlations between the different wind farms largely affect the total wind power generation characteristics of such systems, and therefore should be an important parameter in the wind modeling process. This paper evaluates the effect of the correlation between multiple wind farms on the adequacy indices of wind-integrated systems. The paper also proposes a simple and appropriate probabilistic analytical model that incorporates wind correlations, and can be used for adequacy evaluation of multiple wind-integrated systems.

  12. Uncertainty quantification in wind farm flow models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo

    uncertainties through a model chain are presented and applied to several wind energy related problems such as: annual energy production estimation, wind turbine power curve estimation, wake model calibration and validation, and estimation of lifetime equivalent fatigue loads on a wind turbine. Statistical...

  13. A Monte Carlo methodology for modelling ashfall hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurst, Tony; Smith, Warwick

    2004-12-01

    We have developed a methodology for quantifying the probability of particular thicknesses of tephra at any given site, using Monte Carlo methods. This is a part of the development of a probabilistic volcanic hazard model (PVHM) for New Zealand, for hazards planning and insurance purposes. We use an established program (ASHFALL) to model individual eruptions, where the likely thickness of ash deposited at selected sites depends on the location of the volcano, eruptive volume, column height and ash size, and the wind conditions. A Monte Carlo procedure allows us to simulate the variations in eruptive volume and in wind conditions by analysing repeat eruptions, each time allowing the parameters to vary randomly according to known or assumed distributions. Actual wind velocity profiles are used, with randomness included by selection of a starting date. This method can handle the effects of multiple volcanic sources, each source with its own characteristics. We accumulate the tephra thicknesses from all sources to estimate the combined ashfall hazard, expressed as the frequency with which any given depth of tephra is likely to be deposited at selected sites. These numbers are expressed as annual probabilities or as mean return periods. We can also use this method for obtaining an estimate of how often and how large the eruptions from a particular volcano have been. Results from sediment cores in Auckland give useful bounds for the likely total volumes erupted from Egmont Volcano (Mt. Taranaki), 280 km away, during the last 130,000 years.

  14. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior......One of the major challenges with the increase in wind power generation is the uncertain nature of wind speed. So far the uncertainty about wind speed has been presented through probability distributions. Also the existing models that consider the uncertainty of the wind speed primarily view...

  15. Improved diagnostic model for estimating wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Endlich, R.M.; Lee, J.D.

    1983-03-01

    Because wind data are available only at scattered locations, a quantitative method is needed to estimate the wind resource at specific sites where wind energy generation may be economically feasible. This report describes a computer model that makes such estimates. The model uses standard weather reports and terrain heights in deriving wind estimates; the method of computation has been changed from what has been used previously. The performance of the current model is compared with that of the earlier version at three sites; estimates of wind energy at four new sites are also presented.

  16. Wind farm models and control strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, Poul; Hansen, Anca D.; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.; Donovan, M.H.

    2005-08-01

    This report describes models and control strategies for 3 different concepts of wind farms. Initially, the potential in improvement of grid integration, structural loads and energy production is investigated in a survey of opportunities. Then simulation models are described, including wind turbine models for a fixed speed wind turbine with active stall control and a variable speed wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator. After that, the 3 wind farm concepts and control strategies are described. The 3 concepts are AC connected doubly fed turbines, AC connected active stall turbines and DC connected active stall turbines. Finally, some simulation examples and conclusions are presented. (au)

  17. Wind erosion modelling in a Sahelian environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faye-Visser, S.M.; Sterk, G.; Karssenberg, D.

    2005-01-01

    In the Sahel field observations of wind-blown mass transport often show considerable spatial variation related to the spatial variation of the wind erosion controlling parameters, e.g. soil crust and vegetation cover. A model, used to predict spatial variation in wind erosion and deposition is a

  18. Uncertainties in modeling hazardous gas releases for emergency response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In case of an accidental release of toxic gases the emergency responders need fast information about the affected area and the maximum impact. Hazard distances calculated with the models MET, ALOHA, BREEZE, TRACE and SAMS for scenarios with chlorine, ammoniac and butane releases are compared in this study. The variations of the model results are measures for uncertainties in source estimation and dispersion calculation. Model runs for different wind speeds, atmospheric stability and roughness lengths indicate the model sensitivity to these input parameters. In-situ measurements at two urban near-traffic sites are compared to results of the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA in order to quantify uncertainties in the meteorological input. The hazard zone estimates from the models vary up to a factor of 4 due to different input requirements as well as due to different internal model assumptions. None of the models is found to be 'more conservative' than the others in all scenarios. INCA wind-speeds are correlated to in-situ observations at two urban sites in Vienna with a factor of 0.89. The standard deviations of the normal error distribution are 0.8 ms-1 in wind speed, on the scale of 50 degrees in wind direction, up to 4°C in air temperature and up to 10 % in relative humidity. The observed air temperature and humidity are well reproduced by INCA with correlation coefficients of 0.96 to 0.99. INCA is therefore found to give a good representation of the local meteorological conditions. Besides of real-time data, the INCA-short range forecast for the following hours may support the action planning of the first responders.

  19. Uncertainties in modeling hazardous gas releases for emergency response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baumann-Stanzer, Kathrin; Stenzel, Sirma [Zentralanstalt fuer Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Vienna (Austria)

    2011-02-15

    In case of an accidental release of toxic gases the emergency responders need fast information about the affected area and the maximum impact. Hazard distances calculated with the models MET, ALOHA, BREEZE, TRACE and SAMS for scenarios with chlorine, ammoniac and butane releases are compared in this study. The variations of the model results are measures for uncertainties in source estimation and dispersion calculation. Model runs for different wind speeds, atmospheric stability and roughness lengths indicate the model sensitivity to these input parameters. In-situ measurements at two urban near-traffic sites are compared to results of the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) in order to quantify uncertainties in the meteorological input. The hazard zone estimates from the models vary up to a factor of 4 due to different input requirements as well as due to different internal model assumptions. None of the models is found to be 'more conservative' than the others in all scenarios. INCA wind-speeds are correlated to in-situ observations at two urban sites in Vienna with a factor of 0.89. The standard deviations of the normal error distribution are 0.8 ms{sup -1} in wind speed, on the scale of 50 degrees in wind direction, up to 4 C in air temperature and up to 10 % in relative humidity. The observed air temperature and humidity are well reproduced by INCA with correlation coefficients of 0.96 to 0.99. INCA is therefore found to give a good representation of the local meteorological conditions. Besides of real-time data, the INCA-short range forecast for the following hours may support the action planning of the first responders. (orig.)

  20. Colliding Stellar Wind Models with Orbital Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkin, Francis P.; O'Connor, Brendan

    2018-01-01

    We present thin-shell models for the collision between two ballistic stellar winds, including orbital motion.The stellar orbits are assumed circular, so that steady-state solutions exist in the rotating frame, where we include centrifugal and Coriolis forces. Exact solutions for the pre-shock winds are incorporated. Here we discuss 2-D model results for equal wind momentum-loss rates, although we allow for the winds to have distinct speeds and mass loss rates. For these unequal wind conditions, we obtain a clear violation of skew-symmetry, despite equal momentum loss rates, due to the Coriolis force.

  1. Wind Tunnel Modeling Of Wind Flow Over Complex Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, D.; Cochran, B.

    2010-12-01

    This presentation will describe the finding of an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) wind tunnel study conducted as part of the Bolund Experiment. This experiment was sponsored by Risø DTU (National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark) during the fall of 2009 to enable a blind comparison of various air flow models in an attempt to validate their performance in predicting airflow over complex terrain. Bohlund hill sits 12 m above the water level at the end of a narrow isthmus. The island features a steep escarpment on one side, over which the airflow can be expected to separate. The island was equipped with several anemometer towers, and the approach flow over the water was well characterized. This study was one of only two only physical model studies included in the blind model comparison, the other being a water plume study. The remainder were computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, including both RANS and LES. Physical modeling of air flow over topographical features has been used since the middle of the 20th century, and the methods required are well understood and well documented. Several books have been written describing how to properly perform ABL wind tunnel studies, including ASCE manual of engineering practice 67. Boundary layer wind tunnel tests are the only modelling method deemed acceptable in ASCE 7-10, the most recent edition of the American Society of Civil Engineers standard that provides wind loads for buildings and other structures for buildings codes across the US. Since the 1970’s, most tall structures undergo testing in a boundary layer wind tunnel to accurately determine the wind induced loading. When compared to CFD, the US EPA considers a properly executed wind tunnel study to be equivalent to a CFD model with infinitesimal grid resolution and near infinite memory. One key reason for this widespread acceptance is that properly executed ABL wind tunnel studies will accurately simulate flow separation

  2. Dynamic modeling and simulation of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghafari Seadat, M.H.; Kheradmand Keysami, M.; Lari, H.R.

    2002-01-01

    Using wind energy for generating electricity in wind turbines is a good way for using renewable energies. It can also help to protect the environment. The main objective of this paper is dynamic modeling by energy method and simulation of a wind turbine aided by computer. In this paper, the equations of motion are extracted for simulating the system of wind turbine and then the behavior of the system become obvious by solving the equations. The turbine is considered with three blade rotor in wind direction, induced generator that is connected to the network and constant revolution for simulation of wind turbine. Every part of the wind turbine should be simulated for simulation of wind turbine. The main parts are blades, gearbox, shafts and generator

  3. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian

    Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... are controlled by pitching the blades and by controlling the electro-magnetic torque of the generator, thus slowing the rotation of the blades. Improved control of wind turbines, leading to reduced fatigue loads, can be exploited by using less materials in the construction of the wind turbine or by reducing...... the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving...

  4. Extreme gust wind estimation using mesoscale modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries

    2014-01-01

    Currently, the existing estimation of the extreme gust wind, e.g. the 50-year winds of 3 s values, in the IEC standard, is based on a statistical model to convert the 1:50-year wind values from the 10 min resolution. This statistical model assumes a Gaussian process that satisfies the classical...... through turbulent eddies. This process is modeled using the mesoscale Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) model. The gust at the surface is calculated as the largest winds over a layer where the averaged turbulence kinetic energy is greater than the averaged buoyancy force. The experiments have been...

  5. Hazard Warning: model misuse ahead

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dickey-Collas, M.; Payne, Mark; Trenkel, V.

    2014-01-01

    The use of modelling approaches in marine science, and in particular fisheries science, is explored. We highlight that the choice of model used for an analysis should account for the question being posed or the context of the management problem. We examine a model-classification scheme based...

  6. Wind-Farm Parametrisations in Mesoscale Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we compare three wind-farm parametrisations for mesoscale models against measurement data from the Horns Rev I offshore wind-farm. The parametrisations vary from a simple rotor drag method, to more sophisticated models. Additional to (4) we investigated the horizontal resolution...

  7. Wind gust models derived from field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawronski, W.

    1995-01-01

    Wind data measured during a field experiment were used to verify the analytical model of wind gusts. Good coincidence was observed; the only discrepancy occurred for the azimuth error in the front and back winds, where the simulated errors were smaller than the measured ones. This happened because of the assumption of the spatial coherence of the wind gust model, which generated a symmetric antenna load and, in consequence, a low azimuth servo error. This result indicates a need for upgrading the wind gust model to a spatially incoherent one that will reflect the real gusts in a more accurate manner. In order to design a controller with wind disturbance rejection properties, the wind disturbance should be known at the input to the antenna rate loop model. The second task, therefore, consists of developing a digital filter that simulates the wind gusts at the antenna rate input. This filter matches the spectrum of the measured servo errors. In this scenario, the wind gusts are generated by introducing white noise to the filter input.

  8. Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik

    the actions should be made and the type of actions requires knowledge on the accumulated damage or degradation state of the wind turbine components. For offshore wind turbines, the action times could be extended due to weather restrictions and result in damage or degradation increase of the remaining...

  9. Wind Turbine Control: Robust Model Based Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood

    . This is because, on the one hand, control methods can decrease the cost of energy by keeping the turbine close to its maximum efficiency. On the other hand, they can reduce structural fatigue and therefore increase the lifetime of the wind turbine. The power produced by a wind turbine is proportional...... to the square of its rotor radius, therefore it seems reasonable to increase the size of the wind turbine in order to capture more power. However as the size increases, the mass of the blades increases by cube of the rotor size. This means in order to keep structural feasibility and mass of the whole structure...... reasonable, the ratio of mass to size should be reduced. This trend results in more flexible structures. Control of the flexible structure of a wind turbine in a wind field with stochastic nature is very challenging. In this thesis we are examining a number of robust model based methods for wind turbine...

  10. Modelling Wind Turbine Inflow: The Induction Zone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer Forsting, Alexander Raul

    to the rotor, but requires exact knowledge of the flow deceleration to estimate the available, undis- turbed kinetic energy. Thus this thesis explores, mostly numerically, any wind turbine or environmental dependencies of this deceleration. The computational fluid dynamics model (CFD) employed is validated......A wind turbine decelerates the wind in front of its rotor by extracting kinetic energy. The wind speed reduction is maximal at the rotor and negligible more than five rotor radii upfront. By measuring wind speed this far from the rotor, the turbine’s performance is determined without any rotor bias...... significant parameter. Exploiting this singu- lar dependency, a fast semi-empirical model is devised that accurately predicts the velocity deficit upstream of a single turbine. Near-rotor mea-surements in combination with this model are able to retrieve the kinetic energy available to the turbine in flat...

  11. Model of wind shear conditional on turbulence and its impact on wind turbine loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Natarajan, Anand; Kelly, Mark C.

    2015-01-01

    fatigue load is achieved. The proposed wind shear model based on the wind measurements is thereby probabilistic in definition, with shear jointly distributed with wind turbulence. A simplified model for the wind shear exponent is further derived from the full stochastic model. The fatigue loads over......We analyse high-frequency wind velocity measurements from two test stations over a period of several years and at heights ranging from 60 to 200 m, with the objective to validate wind shear predictions as used in load simulations for wind turbine design. A validated wind shear model is thereby...... different turbine components are evaluated under the full wind measurements, using the developed wind shear model and with standard wind conditions prescribed in the IEC 61400-1 ed. 3. The results display the effect of the Wöhler exponent and reveal that under moderate turbulence, the effect of wind shear...

  12. Modelling the wind climate of Ireland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, H.P.; Landberg, L.

    1997-01-01

    The wind climate of Ireland has been calculated using the Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model KAMM. The climatology is represented by 65 frequency classes of geostrophic wind that were selected as equiangular direction sectors and speed intervals with equal frequency in a sector. The results ar...

  13. Probabilistic Harmonic Modeling of Wind Power Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim H.; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

    2017-01-01

    A probabilistic sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a grid-connected voltage-source converter is used to estimate harmonic emissions in a wind power plant (WPP) comprised of Type-IV wind turbines. The SD representation naturally partitioned converter generated voltage harmonics into those...

  14. Geospatial subsidence hazard modelling at Sterkfontein Caves ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The geo-hazard subsidence model includes historic subsidence occurrances, terrain (water flow) and water accumulation. Water accumulating on the surface will percolate and reduce the strength of the soil mass, possibly inducing subsidence. Areas for further geotechnical investigation are identified, demonstrating that a ...

  15. Alternative methods of modeling wind generation using production costing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milligan, M.R.; Pang, C.K.

    1996-08-01

    This paper examines the methods of incorporating wind generation in two production costing models: one is a load duration curve (LDC) based model and the other is a chronological-based model. These two models were used to evaluate the impacts of wind generation on two utility systems using actual collected wind data at two locations with high potential for wind generation. The results are sensitive to the selected wind data and the level of benefits of wind generation is sensitive to the load forecast. The total production cost over a year obtained by the chronological approach does not differ significantly from that of the LDC approach, though the chronological commitment of units is more realistic and more accurate. Chronological models provide the capability of answering important questions about wind resources which are difficult or impossible to address with LDC models

  16. Hazard identification based on plant functional modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, B.; Whetton, C.

    1993-10-01

    A major objective of the present work is to provide means for representing a process plant as a socio-technical system, so as to allow hazard identification at a high level. The method includes technical, human and organisational aspects and is intended to be used for plant level hazard identification so as to identify critical areas and the need for further analysis using existing methods. The first part of the method is the preparation of a plant functional model where a set of plant functions link together hardware, software, operations, work organisation and other safety related aspects of the plant. The basic principle of the functional modelling is that any aspect of the plant can be represented by an object (in the sense that this term is used in computer science) based upon an Intent (or goal); associated with each Intent are Methods, by which the Intent is realized, and Constraints, which limit the Intent. The Methods and Constraints can themselves be treated as objects and decomposed into lower-level Intents (hence the procedure is known as functional decomposition) so giving rise to a hierarchical, object-oriented structure. The plant level hazard identification is carried out on the plant functional model using the Concept Hazard Analysis method. In this, the user will be supported by checklists and keywords and the analysis is structured by pre-defined worksheets. The preparation of the plant functional model and the performance of the hazard identification can be carried out manually or with computer support. (au) (4 tabs., 10 ills., 7 refs.)

  17. Modeling Innovations Advance Wind Energy Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    In 1981, Glenn Research Center scientist Dr. Larry Viterna developed a model that predicted certain elements of wind turbine performance with far greater accuracy than previous methods. The model was met with derision from others in the wind energy industry, but years later, Viterna discovered it had become the most widely used method of its kind, enabling significant wind energy technologies-like the fixed pitch turbines produced by manufacturers like Aerostar Inc. of Westport, Massachusetts-that are providing sustainable, climate friendly energy sources today.

  18. The New Zealand probabilistic tsunami hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, W. L.; Mueller, C.; Barberopoulou, A.; Wallace, L. M.; Wang, X.; Fraser, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    Effective mitigation of the risks posed by tsunami is an urgent priority for New Zealand, a country straddling the Pacific 'Ring of Fire' and its associated subduction zones. Methods of mitigation, which are in various stages of development, include evacuation mapping, land use planning, and engineering of tsunami resilient buildings and infrastructure. But for this mitigation to be effective an accurate estimate of the hazard posed by tsunamis is needed. This is the motivation behind the New Zealand probabilistic tsunami hazard model. The model considers all types of seismic tsunami sources, whether local, regional or distant to New Zealand. The potential for including other source types, such as landslide and volcanic sources, will be briefly discussed. A critical issue when defining tsunami sources for New Zealand is that the magnitude-frequency distributions of many key seismic sources are not accurately known. For the subduction interfaces and other offshore faults close to New Zealand the historical record of tsunamis is too short to derive magnitude frequency distributions empirically, while the paleotsunami record is incomplete. Fortunately some of the parameters that determine and constrain the magnitude frequency distributions can be estimated, albeit with uncertainty. We present a Monte-Carlo method in which those controlling parameters are randomly sampled, which leads to a process for sampling from the range of different possible magnitude-frequency distributions. Our Monte Carlo method requires the generation of many synthetic catalogues, which require rapid methods for estimating of tsunami heights in each scenario: the methods used for this purpose will be presented. The outputs from our probabilistic model can be presented as hazard curves, describing tsunami height as a function of return period for each section of the coast; these hazard curves include 'error bars' as determined by the uncertainties incorporated in our Monte-Carlo model. Most

  19. Spectral coherence model for power fluctuations in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vigueras-Rodriguez, A.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Viedma, A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides a model for the coherence between wind speeds located in a horizontal plane corresponding to hub height of wind turbines in a large wind farm. The model has been developed using wind speed and power measurements from the 72 Wind Turbines and two of the meteorological masts from...

  20. Model building in nonproportional hazard regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Girondo, Mar; Kneib, Thomas; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Abu-Assi, Emad

    2013-12-30

    Recent developments of statistical methods allow for a very flexible modeling of covariates affecting survival times via the hazard rate, including also the inspection of possible time-dependent associations. Despite their immediate appeal in terms of flexibility, these models typically introduce additional difficulties when a subset of covariates and the corresponding modeling alternatives have to be chosen, that is, for building the most suitable model for given data. This is particularly true when potentially time-varying associations are given. We propose to conduct a piecewise exponential representation of the original survival data to link hazard regression with estimation schemes based on of the Poisson likelihood to make recent advances for model building in exponential family regression accessible also in the nonproportional hazard regression context. A two-stage stepwise selection approach, an approach based on doubly penalized likelihood, and a componentwise functional gradient descent approach are adapted to the piecewise exponential regression problem. These three techniques were compared via an intensive simulation study. An application to prognosis after discharge for patients who suffered a myocardial infarction supplements the simulation to demonstrate the pros and cons of the approaches in real data analyses. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Time Series Model of Wind Speed for Multi Wind Turbines based on Mixed Copula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nie Dan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Because wind power is intermittent, random and so on, large scale grid will directly affect the safe and stable operation of power grid. In order to make a quantitative study on the characteristics of the wind speed of wind turbine, the wind speed time series model of the multi wind turbine generator is constructed by using the mixed Copula-ARMA function in this paper, and a numerical example is also given. The research results show that the model can effectively predict the wind speed, ensure the efficient operation of the wind turbine, and provide theoretical basis for the stability of wind power grid connected operation.

  2. Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation: Mesoscale to Microscale Wind Farm Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanz Rodrigo, Javier [National Renewable Energy Centre (CENER), Sarriguren Spain; Chávez Arroyo, Roberto Aurelio [National Renewable Energy Centre (CENER), Sarriguren Spain; Moriarty, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden CO USA; Churchfield, Matthew [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden CO USA; Kosović, Branko [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder CO USA; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan [Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Roskilde Denmark; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose [Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Lyngby Denmark; Hahmann, Andrea [Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Roskilde Denmark; Mirocha, Jeffrey D. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA USA; Rife, Daran [DNV GL, San Diego CA USA

    2016-08-31

    The increasing size of wind turbines, with rotors already spanning more than 150 m diameter and hub heights above 100 m, requires proper modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) from the surface to the free atmosphere. Furthermore, large wind farm arrays create their own boundary layer structure with unique physics. This poses significant challenges to traditional wind engineering models that rely on surface-layer theories and engineering wind farm models to simulate the flow in and around wind farms. However, adopting an ABL approach offers the opportunity to better integrate wind farm design tools and meteorological models. The challenge is how to build the bridge between atmospheric and wind engineering model communities and how to establish a comprehensive evaluation process that identifies relevant physical phenomena for wind energy applications with modeling and experimental requirements. A framework for model verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification is established to guide this process by a systematic evaluation of the modeling system at increasing levels of complexity. In terms of atmospheric physics, 'building the bridge' means developing models for the so-called 'terra incognita,' a term used to designate the turbulent scales that transition from mesoscale to microscale. This range of scales within atmospheric research deals with the transition from parameterized to resolved turbulence and the improvement of surface boundary-layer parameterizations. The coupling of meteorological and wind engineering flow models and the definition of a formal model evaluation methodology, is a strong area of research for the next generation of wind conditions assessment and wind farm and wind turbine design tools. Some fundamental challenges are identified in order to guide future research in this area.

  3. Small Signal Modeling of Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

    2017-01-01

    In large power electronic systems like a wind farm, the mutual interactions between the control systems of the power converters can lead to various stability and power quality problems. In order to predict the system dynamic behavior, this paper presents an approach to model a wind farm as a Multi......-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) dynamic system, where the current control loops with Phase-Locked Loops (PLLs) are linearized around an operating point. Each sub-module of the wind farm is modeled as a 2×2 admittance matrix in dq-domain and all are combined together by using a dq nodal admittance matrix....... The frequency and damping of the oscillatory modes are calculated by finding the poles of the introduced MIMO matrix. Time-domain simulation results obtained from a 400-MW wind farm are used to verify the effectiveness of the presented model....

  4. The New Italian Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, W.; Meletti, C.; Albarello, D.; D'Amico, V.; Luzi, L.; Martinelli, F.; Pace, B.; Pignone, M.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015 the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica - CPS) of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology was commissioned of coordinating the national scientific community with the aim to elaborate a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized to the update of seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap for releasing within three years a significantly renewed PSHA model, with regard both to the updated input elements and to the strategies to be followed. The main requirements of the model were discussed in meetings with the experts on earthquake engineering that then will participate to the revision of the building code. The activities were organized in 6 tasks: program coordination, input data, seismicity models, ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs), computation and rendering, testing. The input data task has been selecting the most updated information about seismicity (historical and instrumental), seismogenic faults, and deformation (both from seismicity and geodetic data). The seismicity models have been elaborating in terms of classic source areas, fault sources and gridded seismicity based on different approaches. The GMPEs task has selected the most recent models accounting for their tectonic suitability and forecasting performance. The testing phase has been planned to design statistical procedures to test with the available data the whole seismic hazard models, and single components such as the seismicity models and the GMPEs. In this talk we show some preliminary results, summarize the overall strategy for building the new Italian PSHA model, and discuss in detail important novelties that we put forward. Specifically, we adopt a new formal probabilistic framework to interpret the outcomes of the model and to test it meaningfully; this requires a proper definition and characterization of both aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that we accomplish through an ensemble modeling strategy. We use a weighting scheme

  5. Prediction models for wind speed at turbine locations in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas; Soltani, Mohsen

    2011-01-01

    turbulence models. The esti- mator includes a nonlinear time varying wind speed model, which compared with literature results in an adaptive filter. Given the estimated effective wind speed, it is possible to establish wind speed prediction models by system identification. As the prediction models are based...... manifested through the wind field is hence required. This paper develops models for this relationship. The result is based on two new contributions: the first is related to the estimation of effective wind speeds, which serves as a basis for the second contribution to wind speed prediction models. Based...... on standard turbine measurements such as rotor speed and power produced, an effective wind speed, which represents the wind field averaged over the rotor disc, is derived. The effective wind speed estimator is based on a continuous–discrete extended Kalman filter that takes advantage of nonlinear time varying...

  6. Report 3: Guidance document on practices to model and implement Extreme Weather hazards in extended PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Ostapchuk, S.; Borysiewicz, M.; Decker, K.; Kumar, Manorma; Haeggstroem, A.; Nitoi, M.; Groudev, P.; Parey, S.; Potempski, S.; Raimond, E.; Siklossy, T.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this report is to provide guidance on practices to model Extreme Weather hazards and implement them in extended level 1 PSA. This report is a joint deliverable of work package 21 (WP21) and work package 22 (WP22). The general objective of WP21 is to provide guidance on all of the individual hazards selected at the End Users Workshop. This guidance is focusing on extreme weather hazards, namely: extreme wind, extreme temperature and snow pack. Other hazards, however, are considered in cases where they are correlated/ associated with the hazard under discussion. Guidance developed refers to existing guidance whenever possible. As it was recommended by end users this guidance covers questions of developing integrated and/or separated extreme weathers PSA models. (authors)

  7. Multivariable Wind Modeling in State Space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Pedersen, B. J.

    2011-01-01

    -spectral density matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise. Finally, an accurate state space modeling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order, and estimation of a state space model......Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of wind turbines. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper an empirical...... cross-spectral density function for the along-wind turbulence component over the rotor plane is taken as the starting point. The spectrum is spatially discretized in terms of a Hermitian cross-spectral density matrix for the turbulence state vector which turns out not to be positive definite. Since...

  8. Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reiss, Martin A.; Temmer, Manuela; Veronig, Astrid M.

    2016-01-01

    and the background solar wind conditions. We found that both solar wind models are capable of predicting the large-scale features of the observed solar wind speed (root-mean-square error, RMSE ≈100 km/s) but tend to either overestimate (ESWF) or underestimate (WSA) the number of high-speed solar wind streams (threat...

  9. Wind atlas for South Africa: wind measurements and micro-scale modelling

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Szewczuk, S

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available . This paper will discuss the wind atlas method, provide an overview of the wind resource in South Africa, wind measurements that are being undertaken as well as the micro-scale modelling that is planned to be done as part of the Wind Atlas for South Africa...

  10. Modelling and Measuring Flow and Wind Turbine Wakes in Large Wind Farms Offshore

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs

    2009-01-01

    Average power losses due to wind turbine wakes are of the order of 10 to 20% of total power output in large offshore wind farms. Accurately quantifying power losses due to wakes is, therefore, an important part of overall wind farm economics. The focus of this research is to compare different types...... power losses due to wakes and loads. The research presented is part of the EC-funded UpWind project, which aims to radically improve wind turbine and wind farm models in order to continue to improve the costs of wind energy. Reducing wake losses, or even reduce uncertainties in predicting power losses...... from wakes, contributes to the overall goal of reduced costs. Here, we assess the state of the art in wake and flow modelling for offshore wind forms, the focus so for has been cases at the Horns Rev wind form, which indicate that wind form models require modification to reduce under-prediction of wake...

  11. Filament winding cylinders. I - Process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soo-Yong; Springer, George S.

    1990-01-01

    A model was developed which describes the filament winding process of composite cylinders. The model relates the significant process variables such as winding speed, fiber tension, and applied temperature to the thermal, chemical and mechanical behavior of the composite cylinder and the mandrel. Based on the model, a user friendly code was written which can be used to calculate (1) the temperature in the cylinder and the mandrel, (2) the degree of cure and viscosity in the cylinder, (3) the fiber tensions and fiber positions, (4) the stresses and strains in the cylinder and in the mandrel, and (5) the void diameters in the cylinder.

  12. Wind models for the NSTS ascent trajectory biasing for wind load alleviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, O. E.; Adelfang, S. I.; Batts, G. W.

    1990-01-01

    New concepts are presented for aerospace vehicle ascent wind profile biasing. The purpose for wind biasing the ascent trajectory is to provide ascent wind loads relief and thus decrease the probability for launch delays due to wind loads exceeding critical limits. Wind biasing trajectories to the the profile of monthly mean winds have been widely used for this purpose. The wind profile models presented give additional alternatives for wind biased trajectories. They are derived from the properties of the bivariate normal probability function using the available wind statistical parameters for the launch site. The analytical expressions are presented to permit generalizations. Specific examples are given to illustrate the procedures. The wind profile models can be used to establish the ascent trajectory steering commands to guide the vehicle through the first stage. For the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) program these steering commands are called I-loads.

  13. Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

    The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....

  14. Validation of the filament winding process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calius, Emilo P.; Springer, George S.; Wilson, Brian A.; Hanson, R. Scott

    1987-01-01

    Tests were performed toward validating the WIND model developed previously for simulating the filament winding of composite cylinders. In these tests two 24 in. long, 8 in. diam and 0.285 in. thick cylinders, made of IM-6G fibers and HBRF-55 resin, were wound at + or - 45 deg angle on steel mandrels. The temperatures on the inner and outer surfaces and inside the composite cylinders were recorded during oven cure. The temperatures inside the cylinders were also calculated by the WIND model. The measured and calculated temperatures were then compared. In addition, the degree of cure and resin viscosity distributions inside the cylinders were calculated for the conditions which existed in the tests.

  15. Wind turbine noise modeling : a comparison of modeling methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, L.; Strasser, A.

    2009-01-01

    All wind turbine arrays must undergo a noise impact assessment. DataKustik GmbH developed the Computer Aided Noise Abatement (Cadna/A) modeling software for calculating noise propagation to meet accepted protocols and international standards such as CONCAWE and ISO 9613 standards. The developer of Cadna/A, recommended the following 3 models for simulating wind turbine noise. These include a disk of point sources; a ring of point sources located at the tip of each blade; and a point source located at the top of the wind turbine tower hub. This paper presented an analytical comparison of the 3 models used for a typical wind turbine with a hub tower containing 3 propeller blades, a drive-train and top-mounted generator, as well as a representative wind farm, using Cadna/A. AUC, ISO and IEC criteria requirements for the meteorological input with Cadna/A for wind farm noise were also discussed. The noise predicting modelling approach was as follows: the simplest model, positioning a single point source at the top of the hub, can be used to predict sound levels for a typical wind turbine if receptors are located 250 m from the hub; a-weighted sound power levels of a wind turbine at cut-in and cut-off wind speed should be used in the models; 20 by 20 or 50 by 50 meter terrain parameters are suitable for large wind farm modeling; and ISO 9613-2 methods are recommended to predict wind farm noise with various metrological inputs based on local conditions. The study showed that the predicted sound level differences of the 3 wind turbine models using Cadna/A are less than 0.2 dB at receptors located greater than 250 m from the wind turbine hub, which fall within the accuracy range of the calculation method. All 3 models of wind turbine noise meet ISO9613-2 standards for noise prediction using Cadna/A. However, the single point source model was found to be the most efficient in terms of modeling run-time among the 3 models. 7 refs., 3 tabs., 15 figs.

  16. Modeling of the dynamics of wind to power conversion including high wind speed behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Bjerge, Martin Huus; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes and validates an efficient, generic and computationally simple dynamic model for the conversion of the wind speed at hub height into the electrical power by a wind turbine. This proposed wind turbine model was developed as a first step to simulate wind power time series...... speed shutdowns and restarts are represented as on–off switching rules that govern the output of the wind turbine at extreme wind speed conditions. The model uses the concept of equivalent wind speed, estimated from the single point (hub height) wind speed using a second-order dynamic filter...... measurements available from the DONG Energy offshore wind farm Horns Rev 2. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  17. Development and Analysis of a Hurricane Hazard Model for Disaster Risk Assessment in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pita, G. L.; Gunasekera, R.; Ishizawa, O. A.

    2014-12-01

    Hurricane and tropical storm activity in Central America has consistently caused over the past decades thousands of casualties, significant population displacement, and substantial property and infrastructure losses. As a component to estimate future potential losses, we present a new regional probabilistic hurricane hazard model for Central America. Currently, there are very few openly available hurricane hazard models for Central America. This resultant hazard model would be used in conjunction with exposure and vulnerability components as part of a World Bank project to create country disaster risk profiles that will assist to improve risk estimation and provide decision makers with better tools to quantify disaster risk. This paper describes the hazard model methodology which involves the development of a wind field model that simulates the gust speeds at terrain height at a fine resolution. The HURDAT dataset has been used in this study to create synthetic events that assess average hurricane landfall angles and their variability at each location. The hazard model also then estimates the average track angle at multiple geographical locations in order to provide a realistic range of possible hurricane paths that will be used for risk analyses in all the Central-American countries. This probabilistic hurricane hazard model is then also useful for relating synthetic wind estimates to loss and damage data to develop and calibrate existing empirical building vulnerability curves. To assess the accuracy and applicability, modeled results are evaluated against historical events, their tracks and wind fields. Deeper analyses of results are also presented with a special reference to Guatemala. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the

  18. Wind farm related mortality among avian migrants - a remote sensing study and model analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Desholm, M.

    -2006) of migrating birds at the Nysted offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea, Denmark. This thesis poses and answers the following questions: a) what hazard factors do offshore wind farming pose to wild birds, b) how should one choose the key focal species to study, c) how can remote sensing techniques be applied......This thesis is the result of a PhD study on bird-wind farm collisions and consists of a synopsis, five published papers, one submitted manuscript and another ready for submission. The papers describe the fi ndings from pre- and post-construction visual, radar and thermal imaging studies (1999...... to the study of bird wind farm interactions, and d) specifi cally, how do waterbirds react when approaching an offshore wind farm? The main aim of the study was the development of a predictive bird-wind farm collision model that incorporates the avoidance rate of birds at multiple scales. Out of 235...

  19. Simulation analysis of a wind farm with different aggregated models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, H.; Wang, H.; Zhao, B.

    2011-01-01

    Based on a wind farm including wind turbines with squirrel cage induction generators (SCIGs), different aggregated models of a wind farm, such as a single weighted average model, a reduced-order re-scaled model, a parameter transformed model and a single weighted arithmetic model were presented, ...

  20. IEA Wind Task 37: Systems Modeling Framework and Ontology for Wind Turbines and Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dykes, Katherine L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zahle, Frederik [Technical University of Denmark; Merz, Karl [SINTEF Energy Research; McWilliam, Mike [Technical University of Denmark; Bortolotti, Pietro [Technical University Munich

    2017-08-14

    This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the development of a system modeling framework and ontology for wind turbines and plants as part of the larger IEA Wind Task 37 on wind energy systems engineering. The goals of the effort are to create a set of guidelines for a common conceptual architecture for wind turbines and plants so that practitioners can more easily share descriptions of wind turbines and plants across multiple parties and reduce the effort for translating descriptions between models; integrate different models together and collaborate on model development; and translate models among different levels of fidelity in the system.

  1. The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

    OpenAIRE

    Jochen Woessner; Danciu Laurentiu; Domenico Giardini; Helen Crowley; Fabrice Cotton; G. Grünthal; Gianluca Valensise; Ronald Arvidsson; Roberto Basili; Mine Betül Demircioglu; Stefan Hiemer; Carlo Meletti; Roger W. Musson; Andrea N. Rovida; Karin Sesetyan

    2015-01-01

    The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It m...

  2. Stochastic Modeling Of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    reliable components are needed for wind turbine. In this paper focus is on reliability of critical components in drivetrain such as bearings and shafts. High failure rates of these components imply a need for more reliable components. To estimate the reliability of these components, stochastic models...

  3. SimWIND: A geospatial infrastructure model for optimizing wind power generation and transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, Benjamin R.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2012-01-01

    Wind is a clean, enduring energy resource with the capacity to satisfy 20% or more of U.S. electricity demand. Presently, wind potential is limited by a paucity of electrical transmission lines and/or capacity between promising wind resources and primary load centers. We present the model SimWIND to address this shortfall. SimWIND is an integrated optimization model for the geospatial arrangement and cost minimization of wind-power generation–transmission–delivery infrastructure. Given a set of possible wind-farm sites, the model simultaneously determines (1) where and how much power to generate and (2) where to build new transmission infrastructure and with what capacity in order to minimize the cost for delivering a targeted amount of power to load. Costs and routing of transmission lines consider geographic and social constraints as well as electricity losses. We apply our model to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Interconnection, considering scenarios that deliver up to 20 GW of new wind power. We show that SimWIND could potentially reduce ERCOT's projected ∼$5B transmission network upgrade line length and associated costs by 50%. These results suggest that SimWIND's coupled generation–transmission–delivery modeling approach could play a critical role in enhancing planning efforts and reducing costs for wind energy integration. - Highlights: ► Wind power is limited by transmission capacity between resources and demands. ► SimWIND is a coupled generation-transmission-delivery model for wind infrastructure. ► The model minimizes costs considering realistic transmission routing and networking. ► We show that SimWIND could save 50% of $5B costs for expanding the Texas grid. ► Results suggest SimWIND may play a critical role in enhancings wind planning efforts.

  4. Pitchcontrol of wind turbines using model free adaptivecontrol based on wind turbine code

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yunqian; Chen, Zhe; Cheng, Ming

    2011-01-01

    value is only based on I/O data of the wind turbine is identified and then the wind turbine system is replaced by a dynamic linear time-varying model. In order to verify the correctness and robustness of the proposed model free adaptive pitch controller, the wind turbine code FAST which can predict...

  5. Actuator disk model of wind farms based on the rotor average wind speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xing Xing; Xu, Chang; Liu, De You

    2016-01-01

    Due to difficulty of estimating the reference wind speed for wake modeling in wind farm, this paper proposes a new method to calculate the momentum source based on the rotor average wind speed. The proposed model applies volume correction factor to reduce the influence of the mesh recognition...

  6. Wind Turbine and Wind Power Plant Modelling Aspects for Power System Stability Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Altin, Müfit; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Göksu, Ömer

    2014-01-01

    is not reasonable regarding the focus of the study. Therefore the power system operators should be aware of the modelling aspects of the wind power considering the related stability study and implement the required model in the appropriate power system toolbox. In this paper, the modelling aspects of wind turbines...... and wind power plants are reviewed for power system stability studies. Important remarks of the models are presented by means of simulations to emphasize the impact of these modelling details on the power system.......Large amount of wind power installations introduce modeling challenges for power system operators at both the planning and operational stages of power systems. Depending on the scope of the study, the modeling details of the wind turbine or the wind power plant are required to be different. A wind...

  7. Unsteady aerodynamic modelling of wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coton, F.N.; Galbraith, R.A. [Univ. og Glasgow, Dept. of Aerospace Engineering, Glasgow (United Kingdom)

    1997-08-01

    The following current and future work is discussed: Collaborative wind tunnel based PIV project to study wind turbine wake structures in head-on and yawed flow. Prescribed wake model has been embedded in a source panel representation of the wind tunnel walls to allow comparison with experiment; Modelling of tower shadow using high resolution but efficient vortex model in tower shadow domain; Extension of model to yawing flow; Upgrading and tuning of unsteady aerodynamic model for low speed, thick airfoil flows. Glasgow has a considerable collection of low speed dynamic stall data. Currently, the Leishman - Beddoes model is not ideally suited to such flows. For example: Range of stall onset criteria used for dynamic stall prediction including Beddoes. Wide variation of stall onset prediction. Beddoes representation was developed primarily with reference to compressible flows. Analyses of low speed data from Glasgow indicate deficiencies in the current model; Predicted versus measured response during ramp down motion. Modification of the Beddoes representation is required to obtain a fit with the measured data. (EG)

  8. Modelling soil transport by wind in drylands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.H.A.

    1994-01-01

    Understanding the movement of windblown soil particles and the resulting formation of complex surface features are among the most intriguing problems in dryland research. This understanding can only be achieved trough physical and mathematical modelling and must also involve observational data and laboratory experiments. Some current mathematical models that have contributed to the basic understanding of the transportation and deposition of soil particles by wind are presented and solved in these notes. (author). 26 refs, 5 figs

  9. Wind farm electrical power production model for load flow analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segura-Heras, Isidoro; Escriva-Escriva, Guillermo; Alcazar-Ortega, Manuel

    2011-01-01

    The importance of renewable energy increases in activities relating to new forms of managing and operating electrical power: especially wind power. Wind generation is increasing its share in the electricity generation portfolios of many countries. Wind power production in Spain has doubled over the past four years and has reached 20 GW. One of the greatest problems facing wind farms is that the electrical power generated depends on the variable characteristics of the wind. To become competitive in a liberalized market, the reliability of wind energy must be guaranteed. Good local wind forecasts are therefore essential for the accurate prediction of generation levels for each moment of the day. This paper proposes an electrical power production model for wind farms based on a new method that produces correlated wind speeds for various wind farms. This method enables a reliable evaluation of the impact of new wind farms on the high-voltage distribution grid. (author)

  10. Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuting Wan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural wind is stochastic, being characterized by its speed and direction which change randomly and frequently. Because of the certain lag in control systems and the yaw body itself, wind turbines cannot be accurately aligned toward the wind direction when the wind speed and wind direction change frequently. Thus, wind turbines often suffer from a series of engineering issues during operation, including frequent yaw, vibration overruns and downtime. This paper aims to study the effects of yaw error on wind turbine running characteristics at different wind speeds and control stages by establishing a wind turbine model, yaw error model and the equivalent wind speed model that includes the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Formulas for the relevant effect coefficients Tc, Sc and Pc were derived. The simulation results indicate that the effects of the aerodynamic torque, rotor speed and power output due to yaw error at different running stages are different and that the effect rules for each coefficient are not identical when the yaw error varies. These results may provide theoretical support for optimizing the yaw control strategies for each stage to increase the running stability of wind turbines and the utilization rate of wind energy.

  11. Modeling lifetime of high power IGBTs in wind power applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busca, Cristian

    2011-01-01

    The wind power industry is continuously developing bringing to the market larger and larger wind turbines. Nowadays reliability is more of a concern than in the past especially for the offshore wind turbines since the access to offshore wind turbines in case of failures is both costly and difficult....... Lifetime modeling of future large wind turbines is needed in order to make reliability predictions about these new wind turbines early in the design phase. By doing reliability prediction in the design phase the manufacturer can ensure that the new wind turbines will live long enough. This paper represents...... an overview of the different aspects of lifetime modeling of high power IGBTs in wind power applications. In the beginning, wind turbine reliability survey results are briefly reviewed in order to gain an insight into wind turbine subassembly failure rates and associated downtimes. After that the most common...

  12. Economic performance indicators of wind energy based on wind speed stochastic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D’Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo; Prattico, Flavio

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a new and different wind energy production indicator. • We compute financial profitability of potential wind power sites. • The wind speed process is modeled as an indexed semi-Markov chain. • We check if the wind energy is a good investment with and without incentives. - Abstract: We propose the computation of different wind energy production indicators and financial profitability of potential wind power sites. The computation is performed by modeling the wind speed process as an indexed semi-Markov chain to predict and simulate the wind speed dynamics. We demonstrate that the indexed semi-Markov chain approach enables reproducing the indicators calculated on real data. Two different time horizons of 15 and 30 years are analyzed. In the first case we consider the government incentives on the energy price now present in Italy, while in the second case the incentives have not been taken into account

  13. IEA Wind Task 37 System Modeling Framework and Ontology for Wind Turbines and Plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dykes, K; Sanchez Perez Moreno, S.; Zahle, Frederik; Ning, A; McWilliam, M.; Zaayer, M B

    2017-01-01

    This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the development of a system modeling framework and ontology for wind turbines and plants as part of the larger IEA Wind Task 37 on wind energy systems engineering. The goals of the effort are to create a set of guidelines for a common

  14. Modelling of offshore wind turbine wakes with the wind farm program FLaP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lange, B.; Waldl, H.P.; Guerrero, A.G.

    2003-01-01

    The wind farm layout program FLaP estimates the wind speed at any point in a wind farm and the power output of the turbines. The ambient flow conditions and the properties of the turbines and the farm are used as input. The core of the program is an axisymmetric wake model describing the wake...

  15. Guest Editorial Modeling and Advanced Control of Wind Turbines/Wind Farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, J.; Hou, Y.; Zhu, Z.; Xu, D.; Xu, D.; Muljadi, E.; Liu, F.; Iwanski, G.; Geng, H.; Erlich, I.; Wen, J.; Harnefors, L.; Fan, L.; El Moursi, M. S.; Kjaer, P. C.; Nelson, R. J.; Cardenas, R.; Feng, S.; Islam, S.; Qiao, W.; Yuan, X.

    2017-09-01

    The papers in this special section brings together papers focused on the recent advancements and breakthroughs in the technology of modeling and enhanced active/reactive power control of wind power conversion systems, ranging from components of wind turbines to wind farms.

  16. An improved canopy wind model for predicting wind adjustment factors and wildland fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. J. Massman; J. M. Forthofer; M. A. Finney

    2017-01-01

    The ability to rapidly estimate wind speed beneath a forest canopy or near the ground surface in any vegetation is critical to practical wildland fire behavior models. The common metric of this wind speed is the "mid-flame" wind speed, UMF. However, the existing approach for estimating UMF has some significant shortcomings. These include the assumptions that...

  17. Model Predictive Control with Constraints of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2007-01-01

    Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure...... an efficient control of the wind turbine over the entire range of wind speeds. Both onshore and floating offshore wind turbines are tested with the controllers....

  18. Incorporation of all hazard categories into U.S. NRC PRA models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sancaktar, Selim; Ferrante, Fernando; Siu, Nathan; Coyne, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    Over the last two decades, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has maintained independent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models to calculate nuclear power plant (NPP) core damage frequency (CDF) from internal events at power. These models are known as Standardized Plan Analysis Risk (SPAR) models. There are 79 such models representing 104 domestic nuclear plants; with some SPAR models representing more than one unit on the site. These models allow the NRC risk analysts to perform independent quantitative risk estimates of operational events and degraded plant conditions. It is well recognized that using only the internal events contribution to overall plant risk estimates provides a useful, but limited, assessment of the complete plant risk profile. Inclusion, of all hazard categories applicable to a plant in the plant PRA model would provide a more comprehensive assessment of a plant risk. However, implementation of a more comprehensive treatment of additional hazard categories (e.g., fire, flooding, high winds, seismic) presents a number of challenges, including technical considerations. The U.S. NRC has been incorporating additional hazard categories into its set of nuclear power plant PRA models since 2004. Currently, 18 SPAR models include additional hazard categories such as internal flooding, internal fire, seismic, and wind events. In most cases, these external hazard models were derived from Generic Letter 88-20 Individual Plant Examination of External Events (IPEEE) reports. Recently, NRC started incorporating detailed Fire PRA (FPRA) information based on the current licensing effort that allows licensees to transition into a risk-informed fire protection framework, as well as additional external hazards developed by some licensees into enhanced SPAR models. These updated external hazards SPAR models are referred to as SPAR All-Hazard (SPAR-AHZ) models (i.e., they incorporate additional risk contributors beyond internal events). This paper

  19. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  20. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  1. Wind atlas for Egypt: Measurements, micro- and mesoscale modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, N.G.; Hansen, J.C.; Badger, J.

    2006-01-01

    with SRTM 3 elevation data and satellite imagery, provide the means for immediate WAsP wind resource assessments anywhere in Egypt. In addition to the very high wind resource in the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba, the wind atlas has discovered a large region in the Western Desert with a fairly high resource......The results of a comprehensive, 8-year wind resource assessment programme in Egypt are presented. The objective has been to provide reliable and accurate wind atlas data sets for evaluating the potential wind power output from large electricity-producing wind turbine installations. The regional...... wind climates of Egypt have been determined by two independent methods: a traditional wind atlas based on observations from more than 30 stations all over Egypt, and a numerical wind atlas based on long-term reanalysis data and a mesoscale model (KAMM). The mean absolute error comparing the two methods...

  2. Simulation analysis of a wind farm with different aggregated models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, H.; Wang, H.; Zhao, B.

    2011-01-01

    Based on a wind farm including wind turbines with squirrel cage induction generators (SCIGs), different aggregated models of a wind farm, such as a single weighted average model, a reduced-order re-scaled model, a parameter transformed model and a single weighted arithmetic model were presented, ...... by using Matlab/Simulink, based on the conditions of the wind speed disturbance and three-phase short-circuit fault at the point of connected grid. The results have shown that the presented wind farm models are correct and valid.......Based on a wind farm including wind turbines with squirrel cage induction generators (SCIGs), different aggregated models of a wind farm, such as a single weighted average model, a reduced-order re-scaled model, a parameter transformed model and a single weighted arithmetic model were presented......, as well as the detailed SCIG wind turbine model. Regarding for the two cases of a wind farm including SCIGs with identical parameters and different parameters, the dynamic characteristics and transient performances of the presented wind farm using different aggregated models were studied and compared...

  3. Forecasting wind power production from a wind farm using the RAMS model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tiriolo, L.; Torcasio, R. C.; Montesanti, S.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of wind power forecast is commonly recognized because it represents a useful tool for grid integration and facilitates the energy trading. This work considers an example of power forecast for a wind farm in the Apennines in Central Italy. The orography around the site is complex...... and the horizontal resolution of the wind forecast has an important role. To explore this point we compared the performance of two 48 h wind power forecasts using the winds predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for the year 2011. The two forecasts differ only for the horizontal resolution...... of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), whose horizontal resolution over Central Italy is about 25 km at the time considered in this paper. Because wind observations were not available for the site, the power curve for the whole wind farm was derived from the ECMWF wind operational analyses available...

  4. Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

  5. Wind climate modeling using Weibull and extreme value distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The expected number of stress cycles in the projected working life of a structure is related to the expected number of hours in the critical wind speed range and wind climate modelling is required to know this. The most popular model for this purpose is Weibull distribution. Again, wind energy is proportional to the cube of the ...

  6. Bibliography - Existing Guidance for External Hazard Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decker, Kurt

    2015-01-01

    The bibliography of deliverable D21.1 includes existing international and national guidance documents and standards on external hazard assessment together with a selection of recent scientific papers, which are regarded to provide useful information on the state of the art of external event modelling. The literature database is subdivided into International Standards, National Standards, and Science Papers. The deliverable is treated as a 'living document' which is regularly updated as necessary during the lifetime of ASAMPSA-E. The current content of the database is about 140 papers. Most of the articles are available as full-text versions in PDF format. The deliverable is available as an EndNote X4 database and as text files. The database includes the following information: Reference, Key words, Abstract (if available), PDF file of the original paper (if available), Notes (comments by the ASAMPSA-E consortium if available) The database is stored at the ASAMPSA-E FTP server hosted by IRSN. PDF files of original papers are accessible through the EndNote software

  7. Electric solar wind sail mass budget model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Janhunen

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The electric solar wind sail (E-sail is a new type of propellantless propulsion system for Solar System transportation, which uses the natural solar wind to produce spacecraft propulsion. The E-sail consists of thin centrifugally stretched tethers that are kept charged by an onboard electron gun and, as such, experience Coulomb drag through the high-speed solar wind plasma stream. This paper discusses a mass breakdown and a performance model for an E-sail spacecraft that hosts a mission-specific payload of prescribed mass. In particular, the model is able to estimate the total spacecraft mass and its propulsive acceleration as a function of various design parameters such as the number of tethers and their length. A number of subsystem masses are calculated assuming existing or near-term E-sail technology. In light of the obtained performance estimates, an E-sail represents a promising propulsion system for a variety of transportation needs in the Solar System.

  8. Incident Duration Modeling Using Flexible Parametric Hazard-Based Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruimin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Assessing and prioritizing the duration time and effects of traffic incidents on major roads present significant challenges for road network managers. This study examines the effect of numerous factors associated with various types of incidents on their duration and proposes an incident duration prediction model. Several parametric accelerated failure time hazard-based models were examined, including Weibull, log-logistic, log-normal, and generalized gamma, as well as all models with gamma heterogeneity and flexible parametric hazard-based models with freedom ranging from one to ten, by analyzing a traffic incident dataset obtained from the Incident Reporting and Dispatching System in Beijing in 2008. Results show that different factors significantly affect different incident time phases, whose best distributions were diverse. Given the best hazard-based models of each incident time phase, the prediction result can be reasonable for most incidents. The results of this study can aid traffic incident management agencies not only in implementing strategies that would reduce incident duration, and thus reduce congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses, but also in effectively predicting incident duration time.

  9. Wind resource modelling for micro-siting - Validation at a 60-MW wind farm site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, J.C.; Gylling Mortensen, N. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Said, U.S. [New and Renewable Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)

    1999-03-01

    This paper investigates and validates the applicability of the WAsP-model for layout optimization and micro-siting of wind turbines at a given site for a 60-MW wind farm at Zafarana at the Gulf of Suez in Egypt. Previous investigations show large gradients in the wind climate within the area. For the design and optimization of the wind farm it was found necessary to verify the WAsP extrapolation of wind atlas results from 2 existing meteorological masts located 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. On-site measurements at the 3.5 x 3.5 km{sup 2} wind farm site in combination with 7 years of near-site wind atlas measurements offer significant amounts of data for verification of wind conditions for micro-siting. Wind speeds, wind directions, turbulence intensities and guests in 47.5 m a.g.l. have been measured at 9 locations across the site. Additionally, one of the site masts is equipped as a reference mast, measuring both vertical profiles of wind speed and temperature as well as air pressure and temperature. The exercise is further facilitated by the fact that winds are highly uni-directional; the north direction accounting for 80-90% of the wind resource. The paper presents comparisons of 5 months of on-site measurements and modeled predictions from 2 existing meteorological masts located at distances of 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. Predictions based on terrain descriptions of the Wind Atlas for the Gulf of Suez 1991-95 showed over-predictions of wind speeds of 4-10%. With calibrated terrain descriptions, made based on measured data and a re-visit to critical parts of the terrain, the average prediction error of wind speeds was reduced to about 1%. These deviations are smaller than generally expected for such wind resource modeling, clearly documenting the validity of using WAsP modeling for micro-siting and layout optimization of the wind farm. (au)

  10. Development and Verification of CFD Models for Modeling Wind Conditions on Forested Wind Turbine Sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Q.; Mortensen, Kasper; Nielsen, Daniel E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a proposed CFD model to simulate the wind conditions on a forested site. The model introduces porous subdomains representing the forests in the terrain. Obtained simulation values are compared to field measurements in- and outside a forest. Initial results are very promising...

  11. Mathematical modeling of potentially hazardous nuclear objects with time shifts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gharakhanlou, J.; Kazachkov, I.V.

    2012-01-01

    The aggregate models for potentially hazardous objects with time shifts are used for mathematical modeling and computer simulation. The effects of time delays are time forecasts are analyzed. The influence of shift arguments on the nonlinear differential equations is discussed. Computer simulation has established the behavior of potentially hazardous nuclear object

  12. Simulation model of an active stall wind turbine controller

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jauch, C.; Hansen, A.D.; Soerensen, P. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Rosilde (Denmark); Blaabjerg, F. [Aalborg Univ., Inst. of Energy Technology (Denmark)

    2004-07-01

    This paper describes an active stall wind turbine controller. The objective is to develop a general model of an active stall controller in order to simulate the operation of grid connected active stall wind turbines. The active stall turbine concept and its control strategies are presented and evaluated on the basis of simulations. The presented controller is described for continuous operation under all wind speeds from start-up wind speed to shut doven wind speed. Due to its parametric implementation it is general i.e. it can represent different active stall wind turbine controllers and can be implemented in different simulation tools. (au)

  13. Prescribed wind shear modelling with the actuator line technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Troldborg, Niels

    2007-01-01

    A method for prescribing arbitrary steady atmospheric wind shear profiles combined with CFD is presented. The method is furthermore combined with the actuator line technique governing the aerodynamic loads on a wind turbine. Computation are carried out on a wind turbine exposed to a representative...... steady atmospheric wind shear profile with and without wind direction changes up through the atmospheric boundary layer. Results show that the main impact on the turbine is captured by the model. Analysis of the wake behind the wind turbine, reveal the formation of a skewed wake geometry interacting...

  14. Wind Plant Models in IEC 61400-27-2 and WECC - latest developments in international standards on wind turbine and wind plant modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fortmann, Jens; Miller, Nicholas; Kazachkov, Yuri

    This paper describes the latest developments in the standardization of wind plant and wind plant controller models. As a first step IEC TC88 WG 27 and WECC jointly developed generic wind turbine models which have been published by WECC in 2014 and IEC in 2015 as IEC 61400-27-1, which also include...

  15. Modeling of wind turbines for power system studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petru, T.

    2001-05-01

    When wind turbines are installed into the electric grid, the power quality is affected. Today, strict installation recommendations often prevail due to a lack of knowledge on this subject. Consequently, it is important to predict the impact of wind turbines on the electric grid before the turbines are installed. The thesis describes relevant power quality issues, discusses different configurations of wind turbines with respect to power quality and draw requirements regarding wind turbine modeling. A model of a stall-regulated, fixed-speed wind turbine system is introduced and its power quality impact on the electric grid is evaluated. The model is verified with field measurements.

  16. Uncovering wind turbine properties through two-dimensional stochastic modeling of wind dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raischel, Frank; Scholz, Teresa; Lopes, Vitor V; Lind, Pedro G

    2013-10-01

    Using a method for stochastic data analysis borrowed from statistical physics, we analyze synthetic data from a Markov chain model that reproduces measurements of wind speed and power production in a wind park in Portugal. We show that our analysis retrieves indeed the power performance curve, which yields the relationship between wind speed and power production, and we discuss how this procedure can be extended for extracting unknown functional relationships between pairs of physical variables in general. We also show how specific features, such as the rated speed of the wind turbine or the descriptive wind speed statistics, can be related to the equations describing the evolution of power production and wind speed at single wind turbines.

  17. Earth aeolian wind streaks: Comparison to wind data from model and stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen-Zada, A. L.; Maman, S.; Blumberg, D. G.

    2017-05-01

    Wind streak is a collective term for a variety of aeolian features that display distinctive albedo surface patterns. Wind streaks have been used to map near-surface winds and to estimate atmospheric circulation patterns on Mars and Venus. However, because wind streaks have been studied mostly on Mars and Venus, much of the knowledge regarding the mechanism and time frame of their formation and their relationship to the atmospheric circulation cannot be verified. This study aims to validate previous studies' results by a comparison of real and modeled wind data with wind streak orientations as measured from remote-sensing images. Orientations of Earth wind streaks were statistically correlated to resultant drift direction (RDD) values calculated from reanalysis and wind data from 621 weather stations. The results showed good agreement between wind streak orientations and reanalysis RDD (r = 0.78). A moderate correlation was found between the wind streak orientations and the weather station data (r = 0.47); a similar trend was revealed on a regional scale when the analysis was performed by continent, with r ranging from 0.641 in North America to 0.922 in Antarctica. At sites where wind streak orientations did not correspond to the RDDs (i.e., a difference of 45°), seasonal and diurnal variations in the wind flow were found to be responsible for deviation from the global pattern. The study thus confirms that Earth wind streaks were formed by the present wind regime and they are indeed indicative of the long-term prevailing wind direction on global and regional scales.

  18. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling; Ott, Søren; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly...

  19. Modeling and Identification of Harmonic Instability Problems In Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

    2016-01-01

    to identify harmonic instability problems in wind farms, where many wind turbines, cables, transformers, capacitor banks, shunt reactors, etc, typically are located. This methodology introduces the wind farm as a Multi-Input Multi-Outpur (MIMO) control system, where the linearized models of fast inner control...

  20. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling Installation and Decommissioning

    CERN Document Server

    Kaiser, Mark J

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind energy is one of the most promising and fastest growing alternative energy sources in the world. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a methodological framework to assess installation and decommissioning costs, and using examples from the European experience, provides a broad review of existing processes and systems used in the offshore wind industry. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a step-by-step guide to modeling costs over four sections. These sections cover: ·Background and introductory material, ·Installation processes and vessel requirements, ·Installation cost estimation, and ·Decommissioning methods and cost estimation.  This self-contained and detailed treatment of the key principles in offshore wind development is supported throughout by visual aids and data tables. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling is a key resource for anyone interested in the offshore wind industry, particularly those interested in the technical and economic aspects of installation and decom...

  1. Comparing satellite SAR and wind farm wake models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Vincent, P.; Husson, R.

    2015-01-01

    . These extend several tens of kilometres downwind e.g. 70 km. Other SAR wind maps show near-field fine scale details of wake behind rows of turbines. The satellite SAR wind farm wake cases are modelled by different wind farm wake models including the PARK microscale model, the Weather Research and Forecasting...... (WRF) model in high resolution and WRF with coupled microscale parametrization....

  2. A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.

    2017-12-01

    Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.

  3. On wake modeling, wind-farm gradients, and AEP predictions at the Anholt wind farm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Peña

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We investigate wake effects at the Anholt offshore wind farm in Denmark, which is a farm experiencing strong horizontal wind-speed gradients because of its size and proximity to land. Mesoscale model simulations are used to study the horizontal wind-speed gradients over the wind farm. From analysis of the mesoscale simulations and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA, we show that for westerly flow in particular, there is a clear horizontal wind-speed gradient over the wind farm. We also use the mesoscale simulations to derive the undisturbed inflow conditions that are coupled with three commonly used wake models: two engineering approaches (the Park and G. C. Larsen models and a linearized Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes approach (Fuga. The effect of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on annual energy production estimates is not found to be critical compared to estimates from both the average undisturbed wind climate of all turbines' positions and the undisturbed wind climate of a position in the middle of the wind farm. However, annual energy production estimates can largely differ when using wind climates at positions that are strongly influenced by the horizontal wind-speed gradient. When looking at westerly flow wake cases, where the impact of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on the power of the undisturbed turbines is largest, the wake models agree with the SCADA fairly well; when looking at a southerly flow case, where the wake losses are highest, the wake models tend to underestimate the wake loss. With the mesoscale-wake model setup, we are also able to estimate the capacity factor of the wind farm rather well when compared to that derived from the SCADA. Finally, we estimate the uncertainty of the wake models by bootstrapping the SCADA. The models tend to underestimate the wake losses (the median relative model error is 8.75 % and the engineering wake models are as uncertain as Fuga. These results are specific for

  4. Modelling direct tangible damages due to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.

    2012-04-01

    Europe has witnessed a significant increase in direct damages from natural hazards. A further damage increase is expected due to the on-going accumulation of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change, for instance, on the severity and frequency of drought events in the Mediterranean basin. In order to mitigate the impact of natural hazards an improved risk management based on reliable risk analysis is needed. Particularly, there is still much research effort needed to improve the modelling of damage due to natural hazards. In comparison with hazard modelling, simple approaches still dominate damage assessments, mainly due to limitations in available data and knowledge on damaging processes and influencing factors. Within the EU-project ConHaz, methods as well as data sources and terminology for damage assessments were compiled, systemized and analysed. Similarities and differences between the approaches concerning floods, alpine hazards, coastal hazards and droughts were identified. Approaches for significant improvements of direct tangible damage modelling with a particular focus on cross-hazard-learning will be presented. Examples from different hazards and countries will be given how to improve damage data bases, the understanding of damaging processes, damage models and how to conduct improvements via validations and uncertainty analyses.

  5. Modeling of wind turbines with doubly fed generator system

    CERN Document Server

    Fortmann, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Jens Fortmann describes the deduction of models for the grid integration of variable speed wind turbines and the reactive power control design of wind plants. The modeling part is intended as background to understand the theory, capabilities and limitations of the generic doubly fed generator and full converter wind turbine models described in the IEC 61400-27-1 and as 2nd generation WECC models that are used as standard library models of wind turbines for grid simulation software. Focus of the reactive power control part is a deduction of the origin and theory behind the reactive current requ

  6. Complete wind farm electromagnetic transient modelling for grid integration studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zubia, I.; Ostolaza, X.; Susperregui, A.; Tapia, G.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a modelling methodology to analyse the impact of wind farms in surrounding networks. Based on the transient modelling of the asynchronous generator, the multi-machine model of a wind farm composed of N generators is developed. The model incorporates step-up power transformers, distribution lines and surrounding loads up to their connection to the power network. This model allows the simulation of symmetric and asymmetric short-circuits located in the distribution network and the analysis of transient stability of wind farms. It can be also used to study the islanding operation of wind farms

  7. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined......, we simplify state prediction for the MPC. Consequently, the control problem of the nonlinear system is simplified into a quadratic programming. We consider uncertainty in the wind propagation time, which is the traveling time of wind from the LIDAR measurement point to the rotor. An algorithm based...... by the effective wind speed on the rotor disc. We take the wind speed as a scheduling variable. The wind speed is measurable ahead of the turbine using LIDARs, therefore, the scheduling variable is known for the entire prediction horizon. By taking the advantage of having future values of the scheduling variable...

  8. Frequency weighted model predictive control of wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klauco, Martin; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Mirzaei, Mahmood

    2013-01-01

    This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work...... are the rotational degree of freedom of the rotor and the tower for-aft movement. The MPC design is based on a receding horizon policy and a linearised model of the wind turbine. Due to the change of dynamics according to wind speed, several linearisation points must be considered and the control design adjusted...... accordingly. In practice is very hard to measure the effective wind speed, this quantity will be estimated using measurements from the turbine itself. For this purpose stationary predictive Kalman filter has been used. Stochastic simulations of the wind turbine behaviour with applied frequency weighted model...

  9. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca D.; Iov, Florin; Sørensen, Poul

    This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risø-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database...... speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept 3. Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies......, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine concepts, their performance in normal or fault operation being assessed and discussed by means of simulations. The described control...

  10. Global empirical wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere. I. Prevailing wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. I. Portnyagin

    Full Text Available An updated empirical climatic zonally averaged prevailing wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere (70-110 km, extending from 80°N to 80°S is presented. The model is constructed from the fitting of monthly mean winds from meteor radar and MF radar measurements at more than 40 stations, well distributed over the globe. The height-latitude contour plots of monthly mean zonal and meridional winds for all months of the year, and of annual mean wind, amplitudes and phases of annual and semiannual harmonics of wind variations are analyzed to reveal the main features of the seasonal variation of the global wind structures in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Some results of comparison between the ground-based wind models and the space-based models are presented. It is shown that, with the exception of annual mean systematic bias between the zonal winds provided by the ground-based and space-based models, a good agreement between the models is observed. The possible origin of this bias is discussed.

    Key words: Meteorology and Atmospheric dynamics (general circulation; middle atmosphere dynamics; thermospheric dynamics

  11. Models for wind turbines - a collection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, G.C.; Hansen, M.H. (eds.); Baumgart, A.

    2002-02-01

    This report is a collection of notes which were intended to be short communications. Main target of the work presented is to supply new approaches to stability investigations of wind turbines. The authors opinion is that an efficient, systematic stability analysis can not be performed for large systems of differential equations (i.e. the order of the differential equations > 100), because numerical 'effects' in the solution of the equations of motion as initial value problem, eigenvalue problem or whatsoever become predominant. It is therefore necessary to find models which are reduced to the elementary coordinates but which can still describe the physical processes under consideration with sufficiently good accuracy. Such models are presented. (au)

  12. Tornado hazard model with the variation effects of tornado intensity along the path length

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Nohara, Daisuke; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Hattori, Yasuo

    2015-01-01

    Most of Japanese tornados have been reported near the coast line, where all of Japanese nuclear power plants are located. It is necessary for Japanese electric power companies to assess tornado risks on the plants according to a new regulation in 2013. The new regulatory guide exemplifies a tornado hazard model, which cannot consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and consequently produces conservative risk estimates. The guide also recommends the long narrow strip area along the coast line with the width of 5-10 km as a region of interest, although the model tends to estimate inadequate wind speeds due to the limit of application. The purpose of this study is to propose a new tornado hazard model which can be apply to the long narrow strip area. The new model can also consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and across the path width. (author)

  13. Wind farm related mortality among avian migrants - a remote sensing study and model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desholm, M.

    2006-11-15

    This thesis is the result of a PhD study on bird-wind farm collisions and consists of a synopsis, five published papers, one submitted manuscript and another ready for submission. The papers describe the findings from pre- and post-construction visual, radar and thermal imaging studies (1999-2006) of migrating birds at the Nysted offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea, Denmark. This thesis poses and answers the following questions: a) what hazard factors do offshore wind farming pose to wild birds, b) how should one choose the key focal species to study, c) how can remote sensing techniques be applied to the study of bird wind farm interactions, and d) specifically, how do water birds react when approaching an offshore wind farm? The main aim of the study was the development of a predictive bird-wind farm collision model that incorporates the avoidance rate of birds at multiple scales. Out of 235,136 migrating sea ducks only 47 individuals were predicted to collide with the wind turbine rotor-blades, equivalent to an overall mean collision risk of c. 0.02%. This thesis shows the added value of modelling in supplementing sound empirical studies in accessing the effects of major human development pressures on migratory bird populations. (au)

  14. Wall modeled LES of wind turbine wakes with geometrical effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricteux, Laurent; Benard, Pierre; Zeoli, Stephanie; Moureau, Vincent; Lartigue, Ghislain; Vire, Axelle

    2017-11-01

    This study focuses on prediction of wind turbine wakes when geometrical effects such as nacelle, tower, and built environment, are taken into account. The aim is to demonstrate the ability of a high order unstructured solver called YALES2 to perform wall modeled LES of wind turbine wake turbulence. The wind turbine rotor is modeled using an Actuator Line Model (ALM) while the geometrical details are explicitly meshed thanks to the use of an unstructured grid. As high Reynolds number flows are considered, sub-grid scale models as well as wall modeling are required. The first test case investigated concerns a wind turbine flow located in a wind tunnel that allows to validate the proposed methodology using experimental data. The second test case concerns the simulation of a wind turbine wake in a complex environment (e.g. a Building) using realistic turbulent inflow conditions.

  15. Methodologies for Wind Turbine and STATCOM Integration in Wind Power Plant Models for Harmonic Resonances Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freijedo Fernandez, Francisco Daniel; Chaudhary, Sanjay Kumar; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper approaches modelling methodologies for integration of wind turbines and STATCOM in harmonic resonance studies. Firstly, an admittance equivalent model representing the harmonic signature of grid connected voltage source converters is provided. A simplified type IV wind turbine modelling......-domain. As an alternative, a power based averaged modelling is also proposed. Type IV wind turbine harmonic signature and STATCOM active harmonic mitigation are considered for the simulation case studies. Simulation results provide a good insight of the features and limitations of the proposed methodologies....

  16. Wind turbine model and loop shaping controller design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilev, Bogdan

    2017-12-01

    A model of a wind turbine is evaluated, consisting of: wind speed model, mechanical and electrical model of generator and tower oscillation model. Model of the whole system is linearized around of a nominal point. By using the linear model with uncertainties is synthesized a uncertain model. By using the uncertain model is developed a H∞ controller, which provide mode of stabilizing the rotor frequency and damping the tower oscillations. Finally is simulated work of nonlinear system and H∞ controller.

  17. Glide back booster wind tunnel model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricop, M. V.; Cojocaru, M. G.; Stoica, C. I.; Niculescu, M. L.; Neculaescu, A. M.; Persinaru, A. G.; Boscoianu, M.

    2017-07-01

    Affordable space access requires partial or ideally full launch vehicle reuse, which is in line with clean environment requirement. Although the idea is old, the practical use is difficult, requiring very large technology investment for qualification. Rocket gliders like Space Shuttle have been successfullyoperated but the price and correspondingly the energy footprint were found not sustainable. For medium launchers, finally there is a very promising platform as Falcon 9. For very small launchers the situation is more complex, because the performance index (payload to start mass) is already small, versus medium and heavy launchers. For partial reusable micro launchers this index is even smaller. However the challenge has to be taken because it is likely that in a multiyear effort, technology is going to enable the performance recovery to make such a system economically and environmentally feasible. The current paper is devoted to a small unitary glide back booster which is foreseen to be assembled in a number of possible configurations. Although the level of analysis is not deep, the solution is analyzed from the aerodynamic point of view. A wind tunnel model is designed, with an active canard, to enablea more efficient wind tunnel campaign, as a national level premiere.

  18. Use of wind data in global modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pailleux, J.

    1985-01-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing operational global analyses every 6 hours and operational global forecasts every day from the 12Z analysis. How the wind data are used in the ECMWF golbal analysis is described. For each current wind observing system, its ability to provide initial conditions for the forecast model is discussed as well as its weaknesses. An assessment of the impact of each individual system on the quality of the analysis and the forecast is given each time it is possible. Sometimes the deficiencies which are pointed out are related not only to the observing system itself but also to the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme; then some improvements are generally possible through ad hoc modifications of the analysis scheme and especially tunings of the structure functions. Examples are given. The future observing network over the North Atlantic is examined. Several countries, coordinated by WMO, are working to set up an 'Operational WWW System Evaluation' (OWSE), in order to evaluate the operational aspects of the deployment of new systems (ASDAR, ASAP). Most of the new systems are expected to be deployed before January 1987, and in order to make the best use of the available resources during the deployment phase, some network studies are carried out at the present time, by using simulated data for ASDAR and ASAP systems. They are summarized.

  19. Multiobjective Optimization Model for Wind Power Allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Alemany

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for the injection to the grid of renewable energy; therefore, to evaluate the optimal location of new renewable generation is an important task. The primary purpose of this work is to develop a multiobjective optimization model that permits finding multiple trade-off solutions for the location of new wind power resources. It is based on the augmented ε-constrained methodology. Two competitive objectives are considered: maximization of preexisting energy injection and maximization of new wind energy injection, both embedded, in the maximization of load supply. The results show that the location of new renewable generation units affects considerably the transmission network flows, the load supply, and the preexisting energy injection. Moreover, there are diverse opportunities to benefit the preexisting generation, contrarily to the expected effect where renewable generation displaces conventional power. The proposed methodology produces a diverse range of equivalent solutions, expanding and enriching the horizon of options and giving flexibility to the decision-making process.

  20. Probabilistic Modeling of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei

    Wind energy is one of several energy sources in the world and a rapidly growing industry in the energy sector. When placed in offshore or onshore locations, wind turbines are exposed to wave excitations, highly dynamic wind loads and/or the wakes from other wind turbines. Therefore, most componen....../nodules on fatigue life of cast iron samples. The cast iron samples scanned by 3D tomography equipment at the DTU Wind Energy (Risø campus), and the distribution of nodules are used to estimate the fatigue life....

  1. Model of analysis of maximum loads in wind generators produced by extreme winds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrera – Sánchez, Omar; Schellong, Wolfgang; González – Fernández, Vladimir

    2010-01-01

    The use of the wind energy by means of the wind turbines in areas of high risk of occurrence of Hurricanes comes being an important challenge for the designers of wind farm at world for some years. The wind generator is not usually designed to support this type of phenomena, for this reason the areas of high incidence of tropical hurricanes of the planning are excluded, that which, in occasions disables the use of this renewable source of energy totally, either because the country is very small, or because it coincides the area of more potential fully with that of high risk. To counteract this situation, a model of analysis of maxims loads has been elaborated taken place the extreme winds in wind turbines of great behavior. This model has the advantage of determining, in a chosen place, for the installation of a wind farm, the micro-areas with higher risk of wind loads above the acceptable for the standard classes of wind turbines. (author)

  2. Empirical models for predicting wind potential for wind energy applications in rural locations of Nigeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Odo, F.C. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Akubue, G.U.; Offiah, S.U.; Ugwuoke, P.E. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria)

    2013-07-01

    In this paper, we use the correlation between the average wind speed and ambient temperature to develop models for predicting wind potentials for two Nigerian locations. Assuming that the troposphere is a typical heterogeneous mixture of ideal gases, we find that for the studied locations, wind speed clearly correlates with ambient temperature in a simple polynomial of 3rd degree. The coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error of the models are 0.81; 0.0024 and 0.56; 0.0041, respectively, for Enugu (6.40N; 7.50E) and Owerri (5.50N; 7.00E). These results suggest that the temperature-based model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, in predicting wind potentials needed for preliminary design assessment of wind energy conversion devices for the locations and others with similar meteorological conditions.

  3. The Wind Profile in the Coastal Boundary Layer: Wind Lidar Measurements and Numerical Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floors, Rogier; Vincent, Claire Louise; Gryning, Sven-Erik

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally it has been difficult to verify mesoscale model wind predictions against observations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we used measurements from a wind lidar to study the PBL up to 800 m above the surface at a flat coastal site in Denmark during a one month period in autu...

  4. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...

  5. Wind Plant Models in IEC 61400-27-2 and WECC - latest developments in international standards on wind turbine and wind plant modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fortmann, Jens; Miller, Nicholas; Kazachkov, Yuri

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes the latest developments in the standardization of wind plant and wind plant controller models. As a first step IEC TC88 WG 27 and WECC jointly developed generic wind turbine models which have been published by WECC in 2014 and IEC in 2015 as IEC 61400-27-1, which also included...... a draft plant controller model in an informative annex. In a second step, parallel activities have been going on in WECC and IEC TC88 WG 27 to create plant models that can include a number of wind turbines, a plant controller and optional equipment. The WECC models are intended to be finalized in 2015...

  6. Wall Correction Model for Wind Tunnels with Open Test Section

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Shen, Wen Zhong; Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming

    2004-01-01

    In th paper we present a correction model for wall interference on rotors of wind turbines or propellers in wind tunnels. The model, that is based on a onedimensional momentum approach, is validated against results from CFD computations using a generalized actuator disc principle. Generally......, the corrections from the model are in very good agreement with the CFD computaions, demonstrating that one-dimensional momentum theory is a reliable way of predicting corrections for wall interference in wind tunnels with closed as well as open cross sections. Keywords: Wind tunnel correction, momentum theory...

  7. SimWIND: A Geospatial Infrastructure Model for Wind Energy Production and Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, R. S.; Phillips, B. R.; Bielicki, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    Wind is a clean, enduring energy resource with a capacity to satisfy 20% or more of the electricity needs in the United States. A chief obstacle to realizing this potential is the general paucity of electrical transmission lines between promising wind resources and primary load centers. Successful exploitation of this resource will therefore require carefully planned enhancements to the electric grid. To this end, we present the model SimWIND for self-consistent optimization of the geospatial arrangement and cost of wind energy production and transmission infrastructure. Given a set of wind farm sites that satisfy meteorological viability and stakeholder interest, our model simultaneously determines where and how much electricity to produce, where to build new transmission infrastructure and with what capacity, and where to use existing infrastructure in order to minimize the cost for delivering a given amount of electricity to key markets. Costs and routing of transmission line construction take into account geographic and social factors, as well as connection and delivery expenses (transformers, substations, etc.). We apply our model to Texas and consider how findings complement the 2008 Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) Transmission Optimization Study. Results suggest that integrated optimization of wind energy infrastructure and cost using SimWIND could play a critical role in wind energy planning efforts.

  8. A canopy-type similarity model for wind farm optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markfort, Corey D.; Zhang, Wei; Porté-Agel, Fernando

    2013-04-01

    The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow through and over wind farms has been found to be similar to canopy-type flows, with characteristic flow development and shear penetration length scales (Markfort et al., 2012). Wind farms capture momentum from the ABL both at the leading edge and from above. We examine this further with an analytical canopy-type model. Within the flow development region, momentum is advected into the wind farm and wake turbulence draws excess momentum in from between turbines. This spatial heterogeneity of momentum within the wind farm is characterized by large dispersive momentum fluxes. Once the flow within the farm is developed, the area-averaged velocity profile exhibits a characteristic inflection point near the top of the wind farm, similar to that of canopy-type flows. The inflected velocity profile is associated with the presence of a dominant characteristic turbulence scale, which may be responsible for a significant portion of the vertical momentum flux. Prediction of this scale is useful for determining the amount of available power for harvesting. The new model is tested with results from wind tunnel experiments, which were conducted to characterize the turbulent flow in and above model wind farms in aligned and staggered configurations. The model is useful for representing wind farms in regional scale models, for the optimization of wind farms considering wind turbine spacing and layout configuration, and for assessing the impacts of upwind wind farms on nearby wind resources. Markfort CD, W Zhang and F Porté-Agel. 2012. Turbulent flow and scalar transport through and over aligned and staggered wind farms. Journal of Turbulence. 13(1) N33: 1-36. doi:10.1080/14685248.2012.709635.

  9. Accurate wind farm development and operation. Advanced wake modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brand, A.; Bot, E.; Ozdemir, H. [ECN Unit Wind Energy, P.O. Box 1, NL 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Steinfeld, G.; Drueke, S.; Schmidt, M. [ForWind, Center for Wind Energy Research, Carl von Ossietzky Universitaet Oldenburg, D-26129 Oldenburg (Germany); Mittelmeier, N. REpower Systems SE, D-22297 Hamburg (Germany))

    2013-11-15

    The ability is demonstrated to calculate wind farm wakes on the basis of ambient conditions that were calculated with an atmospheric model. Specifically, comparisons are described between predicted and observed ambient conditions, and between power predictions from three wind farm wake models and power measurements, for a single and a double wake situation. The comparisons are based on performance indicators and test criteria, with the objective to determine the percentage of predictions that fall within a given range about the observed value. The Alpha Ventus site is considered, which consists of a wind farm with the same name and the met mast FINO1. Data from the 6 REpower wind turbines and the FINO1 met mast were employed. The atmospheric model WRF predicted the ambient conditions at the location and the measurement heights of the FINO1 mast. May the predictability of the wind speed and the wind direction be reasonable if sufficiently sized tolerances are employed, it is fairly impossible to predict the ambient turbulence intensity and vertical shear. Three wind farm wake models predicted the individual turbine powers: FLaP-Jensen and FLaP-Ainslie from ForWind Oldenburg, and FarmFlow from ECN. The reliabilities of the FLaP-Ainslie and the FarmFlow wind farm wake models are of equal order, and higher than FLaP-Jensen. Any difference between the predictions from these models is most clear in the double wake situation. Here FarmFlow slightly outperforms FLaP-Ainslie.

  10. A Reliability Based Model for Wind Turbine Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K. Rajeevan

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A wind turbine generator output at a specific site depends on many factors, particularly cut- in, rated and cut-out wind speed parameters. Hence power output varies from turbine to turbine. The objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical relationship between reliability and wind power generation. The analytical computation of monthly wind power is obtained from weibull statistical model using cubic mean cube root of wind speed. Reliability calculation is based on failure probability analysis. There are many different types of wind turbinescommercially available in the market. From reliability point of view, to get optimum reliability in power generation, it is desirable to select a wind turbine generator which is best suited for a site. The mathematical relationship developed in this paper can be used for site-matching turbine selection in reliability point of view.

  11. Model predictive control for wind power gradients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Boyd, Stephen; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    We consider the operation of a wind turbine and a connected local battery or other electrical storage device, taking into account varying wind speed, with the goal of maximizing the total energy generated while respecting limits on the time derivative (gradient) of power delivered to the grid. We...... wind data and modern wind forecasting methods. The simulation results using real wind data demonstrate the ability to reject the disturbances from fast changes in wind speed, ensuring certain power gradients, with an insignificant loss in energy production....... ranges. The system dynamics are quite non-linear, and the constraints and objectives are not convex functions of the control inputs, so the resulting optimal control problem is difficult to solve globally. In this paper, we show that by a novel change of variables, which focuses on power flows, we can...

  12. Modeling and implementation of wind shear data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, Walter

    1987-01-01

    The problems of implementing the JAWS wind shear data are discussed. The data sets are described from the view of utilizing them in an aircraft performance computer program. Then, some of the problems of nonstandard procedures are described in terms of programming the equations of aircraft motion when the effects of temporal and spatially variable winds are included. Finally, some of the computed effects of the various wind shear terms are shown.

  13. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  14. Elements of extreme wind modeling for hurricanes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans; Kelly, Mark C.

    The report summarizes characteristics of the winds associated with Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons). It has been conducted by the authors across several years, from 2012-2015, to identify the processes and aspects that one should consider when building at useful computer support system...... for evaluation hurricane extreme wind conditions for a given offshore site. It was initiated by a grant from DNV that has as well been represented by one of the authors in this report. Finally, we wish to emphasize the debt of this report to an earlier work at the DTU-Wind Energy Department on “Extreme winds...

  15. Predicting extreme wind speeds on a tropical island for multi-peril catastrophe modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Moncoulon, David; Millinship, Ian; Raven, Emma

    2013-04-01

    Catastrophe models are important tools used by the reinsurance industry for assessing and managing risk. Here, we present the methods used to develop high-resolution wind hazard maps for the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion. As the recent Cyclone Dumile (January 2013) reminded us, the island is at considerable risk from the extreme weather associated with tropical cyclones. It also contains a significant proportion of the total value insured in French overseas territories. The wind maps, alongside flood and storm surge maps, were ultimately combined with exposure information in a multi-peril catastrophe model to provide probabilistic estimates of insured loss. Our wind mapping methodology used established extreme value theory statistics to estimate the annual probability of extreme wind speeds, including those exceeding the observed maxima of our 19 year record, at meteorological stations. This gave approximate wind speeds for a range of return periods at these specific locations. Since the spatial density of the stations was insufficient to resolve the numerous potential effects of the complex island topography, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were then developed to interpolate these cyclonic wind speeds across the entire island. Factors known to affect local wind speed such as elevation, surface roughness and coastal proximity were explicitly accounted for. Using this advanced interpolation method, wind hazard maps were produced for six return periods between 1 in 10 and 1 in 1000 years. Our maps compared favourably with those of historical events, and also showed patterns of wind speed in agreement with the findings of other studies investigating the effects of topography. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) further confirmed the satisfactory performance of the models in providing a robust and comprehensive description of wind patterns during cyclone passage. Uncertainty increased with return period as more extrapolation of the limited

  16. A Reduced Wind Power Grid Model for Research and Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akhmatov, Vladislav; Lund, Torsten; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2007-01-01

    A reduced grid model of a transmission system with a number of central power plants, consumption centers, local wind turbines and a large offshore wind farm is developed and implemented in the simulation tool PowerFactory (DIgSILENT). The reduced grid model is given by Energinet.dk, Transmission...

  17. Modelling and measurements of wakes in large wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Rathmann, Ole; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents research conducted in the Flow workpackage of the EU funded UPWIND project which focuses on improving models of flow within and downwind of large wind farms in complex terrain and offshore. The main activity is modelling the behaviour of wind turbine wakes in order to improve p...

  18. Calculation of extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, X.G..; Badger, J.

    2012-06-15

    The objective of this project is to develop new methodologies for extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling. Three independent methodologies have been developed. All three methodologies are targeted at confronting and solving the problems and drawbacks in existing methods for extreme wind estimation regarding the use of modeled data (coarse resolution, limited representation of storms) and measurements (short period and technical issues). The first methodology is called the selective dynamical downscaling method. For a chosen area, we identify the yearly strongest storms through global reanalysis data at each model grid point and run a mesoscale model, here the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, for all storms identified. Annual maximum winds and corresponding directions from each mesoscale grid point are then collected, post-processed and used in Gumbel distribution to obtain the 50-year wind. The second methodology is called the statistical-dynamical downscaling method. For a chosen area, the geostrophic winds at a representative grid point from the global reanalysis data are used to obtain the annual maximum winds in 12 sectors for a period of 30 years. This results in 360 extreme geostrophic winds. Each of the 360 winds is used as a stationary forcing in a mesoscale model, here KAMM. For each mesoscale grid point the annual maximum winds are post-processed and used to a Gumbel fit to obtain the 50-year wind. For the above two methods, the post-processing is an essential part. It calculates the speedup effects using a linear computation model (LINCOM) and corrects the winds from the mesoscale modeling to a standard condition, i.e. 10 m above a homogeneous surface with a roughness length 5 cm. Winds of the standard condition can then be put into a microscale model to resolve the local terrain and roughness effects around particular turbine sites. By converting both the measured and modeled winds to the same surface conditions through the post

  19. An optimization model for transportation of hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seyed-Hosseini, M.; Kheirkhah, A. S.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the optimal routing problem for transportation of hazardous materials is studied. Routing for the purpose of reducing the risk of transportation of hazardous materials has been studied and formulated by many researcher and several routing models have been presented up to now. These models can be classified into the categories: the models for routing a single movement and the models for routing multiple movements. In this paper, according to the current rules and regulations of road transportations of hazardous materials in Iran, a routing problem is designed. In this problem, the routs for several independent movements are simultaneously determined. To examine the model, the problem the transportations of two different dangerous materials in the road network of Mazandaran province in the north of Iran is formulated and solved by applying Integer programming model

  20. Wind turbine noise propagation modelling: An unsteady approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlas, Emre; Zhu, Wei Jun; Shen, Wen Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Wind turbine sound generation and propagation phenomena are inherently time dependent, hence tools that incorporate the dynamic nature of these two issues are needed for accurate modelling. In this paper, we investigate the sound propagation from a wind turbine by considering the effects of unste......Wind turbine sound generation and propagation phenomena are inherently time dependent, hence tools that incorporate the dynamic nature of these two issues are needed for accurate modelling. In this paper, we investigate the sound propagation from a wind turbine by considering the effects...

  1. A Method for Modeling of Floating Vertical Axis Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Kai; Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Moan, Torgeir

    2013-01-01

    It is of interest to investigate the potential advantages of floating vertical axis wind turbine (FVAWT) due to its economical installation and maintenance. A novel 5MW vertical axis wind turbine concept with a Darrieus rotor mounted on a semi-submersible support structure is proposed in this paper....... In order to assess the technical and economic feasibility of this novel concept, a comprehensive simulation tool for modeling of the floating vertical axis wind turbine is needed. This work presents the development of a coupled method for modeling of the dynamics of a floating vertical axis wind turbine...

  2. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  3. Experimental studies on power transformer model winding provided with MOVs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Kusumadevi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Surge voltage distribution across a HV transformer winding due to appearance of very fast rise time (rise time of order 1 μs transient voltages is highly non-uniform along the length of the winding for initial time instant of occurrence of surge. In order to achieve nearly uniform initial time instant voltage distribution along the length of the HV winding, investigations have been carried out on transformer model winding. By connecting similar type of metal oxide varistors across sections of HV transformer model winding, it is possible to improve initial time instant surge voltage distribution across length of the HV transformer winding. Transformer windings with α values 5.3, 9.5 and 19 have been analyzed. The experimental studies have been carried out using high speed oscilloscope of good accuracy. The initial time instant voltage distribution across sections of winding with MOV remains nearly uniform along length of the winding. Also results of fault diagnostics carried out with and without connection of MOVs across sections of winding are reported.

  4. Wind Farm Wake Models From Full Scale Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    on real full scale data. The modelling is based on so called effective wind speed. It is shown that there is a wake for a wind direction range of up to 20 degrees. Further, when accounting for the wind direction it is shown that the two model structures considered can both fit the experimental data......This investigation is part of the EU FP7 project “Distributed Control of Large-Scale Offshore Wind Farms”. The overall goal in this project is to develop wind farm controllers giving power set points to individual turbines in the farm in order to minimise mechanical loads and optimise power. One...... control configuration examined is distributed control where turbines only communicate with their nearest upwind neighbors. Design of such controllers needs wake models and these models should ideally be distributed. This paper compares two simple multiple wake models for this purpose. The study is based...

  5. Limited Area Forecasting and Statistical Modelling for Wind Energy Scheduling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg

    forecast accuracy for operational wind power scheduling. Numerical weather prediction history and scales of atmospheric motion are summarised, followed by a literature review of limited area wind speed forecasting. Hereafter, the original contribution to research on the topic is outlined. The quality...... control of wind farm data used as forecast reference is described in detail, and a preliminary limited area forecasting study illustrates the aggravation of issues related to numerical orography representation and accurate reference coordinates at ne weather model resolutions. For the o shore and coastal...... sites studied limited area forecasting is found to deteriorate wind speed prediction accuracy, while inland results exhibit a steady forecast performance increase with weather model resolution. Temporal smoothing of wind speed forecasts is shown to improve wind power forecast performance by up to almost...

  6. Reference Manual for the System Advisor Model's Wind Power Performance Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freeman, J.; Jorgenson, J.; Gilman, P.; Ferguson, T.

    2014-08-01

    This manual describes the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM) wind power performance model. The model calculates the hourly electrical output of a single wind turbine or of a wind farm. The wind power performance model requires information about the wind resource, wind turbine specifications, wind farm layout (if applicable), and costs. In SAM, the performance model can be coupled to one of the financial models to calculate economic metrics for residential, commercial, or utility-scale wind projects. This manual describes the algorithms used by the wind power performance model, which is available in the SAM user interface and as part of the SAM Simulation Core (SSC) library, and is intended to supplement the user documentation that comes with the software.

  7. Scaling forecast models for wind turbulence and wind turbine power intermittency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duran Medina, Olmo; Schmitt, Francois G.; Calif, Rudy

    2017-04-01

    The intermittency of the wind turbine power remains an important issue for the massive development of this renewable energy. The energy peaks injected in the electric grid produce difficulties in the energy distribution management. Hence, a correct forecast of the wind power in the short and middle term is needed due to the high unpredictability of the intermittency phenomenon. We consider a statistical approach through the analysis and characterization of stochastic fluctuations. The theoretical framework is the multifractal modelisation of wind velocity fluctuations. Here, we consider three wind turbine data where two possess a direct drive technology. Those turbines are producing energy in real exploitation conditions and allow to test our forecast models of power production at a different time horizons. Two forecast models were developed based on two physical principles observed in the wind and the power time series: the scaling properties on the one hand and the intermittency in the wind power increments on the other. The first tool is related to the intermittency through a multifractal lognormal fit of the power fluctuations. The second tool is based on an analogy of the power scaling properties with a fractional brownian motion. Indeed, an inner long-term memory is found in both time series. Both models show encouraging results since a correct tendency of the signal is respected over different time scales. Those tools are first steps to a search of efficient forecasting approaches for grid adaptation facing the wind energy fluctuations.

  8. Causal Mediation Analysis for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model with a Smooth Baseline Hazard Estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Albert, Jeffrey M

    2017-08-01

    An important problem within the social, behavioral, and health sciences is how to partition an exposure effect (e.g. treatment or risk factor) among specific pathway effects and to quantify the importance of each pathway. Mediation analysis based on the potential outcomes framework is an important tool to address this problem and we consider the estimation of mediation effects for the proportional hazards model in this paper. We give precise definitions of the total effect, natural indirect effect, and natural direct effect in terms of the survival probability, hazard function, and restricted mean survival time within the standard two-stage mediation framework. To estimate the mediation effects on different scales, we propose a mediation formula approach in which simple parametric models (fractional polynomials or restricted cubic splines) are utilized to approximate the baseline log cumulative hazard function. Simulation study results demonstrate low bias of the mediation effect estimators and close-to-nominal coverage probability of the confidence intervals for a wide range of complex hazard shapes. We apply this method to the Jackson Heart Study data and conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the impact on the mediation effects inference when the no unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding assumption is violated.

  9. Analysis of Precipitation (Rain and Snow) Levels and Straight-line Wind Speeds in Support of the 10-year Natural Phenomena Hazards Review for Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, Elizabeth J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Deola, Regina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-10

    This report provides site-specific return level analyses for rain, snow, and straight-line wind extreme events. These analyses are in support of the 10-year review plan for the assessment of meteorological natural phenomena hazards at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses follow guidance from Department of Energy, DOE Standard, Natural Phenomena Hazards Analysis and Design Criteria for DOE Facilities (DOE-STD-1020-2012), Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800, 2007) and ANSI/ ANS-2.3-2011, Estimating Tornado, Hurricane, and Extreme Straight-Line Wind Characteristics at Nuclear Facility Sites. LANL precipitation and snow level data have been collected since 1910, although not all years are complete. In this report the results from the more recent data (1990–2014) are compared to those of past analyses and a 2004 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration report. Given the many differences in the data sets used in these different analyses, the lack of statistically significant differences in return level estimates increases confidence in the data and in the modeling and analysis approach.

  10. Ecological restoration and recovery in the wind-blown sand hazard areas of northern China: relationship between soil water and carrying capacity for vegetation in the Tengger Desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, XingRong; Zhang, ZhiShan; Tan, HuiJuan; Gao, YanHong; Liu, LiChao; Wang, XingPing

    2014-05-01

    The main prevention and control area for wind-blown sand hazards in northern China is about 320000 km(2) in size and includes sandlands to the east of the Helan Mountain and sandy deserts and desert-steppe transitional regions to the west of the Helan Mountain. Vegetation recovery and restoration is an important and effective approach for constraining wind-blown sand hazards in these areas. After more than 50 years of long-term ecological studies in the Shapotou region of the Tengger Desert, we found that revegetation changed the hydrological processes of the original sand dune system through the utilization and space-time redistribution of soil water. The spatiotemporal dynamics of soil water was significantly related to the dynamics of the replanted vegetation for a given regional precipitation condition. The long-term changes in hydrological processes in desert areas also drive replanted vegetation succession. The soil water carrying capacity of vegetation and the model for sand fixation by revegetation in aeolian desert areas where precipitation levels are less than 200 mm are also discussed.

  11. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  12. Development of an Integrated Water and Wind Erosion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, D. C.; Ascough, J. C.; Wagner, L. E.; Geter, W. F.

    2006-12-01

    Prediction technologies for soil erosion by the forces of wind or water have largely been developed independently from one another, especially within the United States. Much of this has been due to the initial creation of equations and models which were empirical in nature (i.e., Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wind Erosion Equation) and based upon separate water erosion or wind erosion plot and field measurements. Additionally, institutional organizations in place typically divided research efforts and funding to unique wind or water erosion research and modeling projects. However, during the past 20 years computer technologies and erosion modeling have progressed to the point where it is now possible to merge physical process-based computer simulation models into an integrated water and wind erosion prediction system. In a physically- based model, many of the processes which must be simulated for wind and water erosion computations are the same, e.g., climate, water balance, runoff, plant growth, etc. Model components which specifically deal with the wind or water detachment, transport and deposition processes are those that must differ, as well as any necessary parameterization of input variables (e.g., adjusted soil erodibilities, critical shear stresses, etc.) for those components. This presentation describes current efforts towards development of a combined wind and water erosion model, based in part upon technologies present in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) models. Initial efforts during the past two years have resulted in modular modeling components that allow for prediction of infiltration, surface runoff, and water erosion at a hillslope scale within an Object Modeling System. Additional components currently in development include wind detachment at a single field point, continuous water balance, and unified plant growth. Challenges in this project are many, and include adequate field

  13. A conflict model for the international hazardous waste disposal dispute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Kaixian; Hipel, Keith W.; Fang, Liping

    2009-01-01

    A multi-stage conflict model is developed to analyze international hazardous waste disposal disputes. More specifically, the ongoing toxic waste conflicts are divided into two stages consisting of the dumping prevention and dispute resolution stages. The modeling and analyses, based on the methodology of graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), are used in both stages in order to grasp the structure and implications of a given conflict from a strategic viewpoint. Furthermore, a specific case study is investigated for the Ivory Coast hazardous waste conflict. In addition to the stability analysis, sensitivity and attitude analyses are conducted to capture various strategic features of this type of complicated dispute.

  14. A Multidirectional Wind Erosion Model for Western Saxony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; de Figueiredo, Tomás; Alewell, Christine

    2016-04-01

    Wind erosion can trigger a non-visible loss of fine soil up to 40 t ha-1 per single event and is as such a major soil threat and environmental concern in areas susceptible to wind erosion. Western Saxony was assessed to be among the most susceptible landscapes not only within Germany but even within Europe (Borelli et al., 2015; Borelli et al., 2014). Moreover, wind erosion events in eastern Germany cause very severe off-site effects with impacts on road traffic. So far the wind erosion model that is normally applied in Germany is based on the norm DIN standard 19706. The DIN standard 19706 was revised by new controlling factors and fuzzy logic to consider the multi-directionality of wind and make it more realistic to wind erosion processes. The new factors are based on different datasets like (i) wind and temperature data (1hr resolution) for 9 gauging stations and interpolated long-term wind speed (1981-2000, 200m resolution) provided by the German Weather Service, (ii) soil erodibility extracted from the digital soil map 1:50,000, (iii) landscape components from different data sources (ATKIS, OpenStreetMap and others), and (iv) a DEM (20m resolution) for local orographic modeling. For a risky sub-region, local wind speeds and directions were modelled based on the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Programs (WAsP) orography-model to assess road bodies for priority actions. Major improvements of the proposed model are the consideration of changing wind directions and the implementation of factors on soil cover and field length. An estimation of the long-term spatiotemporal variability under changing climate is possible with the model conception. The revised model assesses 3.6% of western Saxonies agricultural fields under very high risk to wind erosion. Larger fields (greater than 116 ha) are connected to a higher frequency (51.7%) of very high risk. Only a small proportion (5.2%) of the high risk class was found in small fields (smaller than 21 ha). Fields under

  15. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...... provides a description of the wind turbine modelling, both at a component level and at a system level....

  16. The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with

  17. Modelling of the urban wind profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gryning, Sven-Erik; Batchvarova, Ekaterina

    2008-01-01

    Analysis of meteorological measurements from tall masts in rural and urban areas show that the height of the boundary layer influences the wind profile even in the lowest hundreds of meters. A parameterization of the wind profile for the entire boundary layer is formulated with emphasis...... on the lowest 200-300 m and presented here. Results are shown from applying the parameterization of the wind profile on independent measurements from an urban experimental campaign that was carried out in Sofia, Bulgaria in 2003....

  18. INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

    KAUST Repository

    Elkantassi, Soumaya

    2017-10-03

    Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

  19. Computational Modelling of Materials for Wind Turbine Blades: Selected DTU Wind Energy Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard; Mishnaevsky, Leon

    2017-11-08

    Computational and analytical studies of degradation of wind turbine blade materials at the macro-, micro-, and nanoscale carried out by the modelling team of the Section Composites and Materials Mechanics, Department of Wind Energy, DTU, are reviewed. Examples of the analysis of the microstructural effects on the strength and fatigue life of composites are shown. Computational studies of degradation mechanisms of wind blade composites under tensile and compressive loading are presented. The effect of hybrid and nanoengineered structures on the performance of the composite was studied in computational experiments as well.

  20. Measuring and modelling of the wind on the scale of tall wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floors, Rogier Ralph

    and the friction velocity had a bias, which were related to the change in surface roughness. A higher-order boundary-layer scheme represented the wind profile of the westerly flow over sea better, while a first-order scheme modelled the flow from the east with low-level jets better. The wind profile shape...... to baroclinity. The variation of the resistance law constants in neutral, baroclinic conditions was approximately the same as in experiments that where assumed to be barotropic; part of the variation was explained by baroclinity showing the importance of including this effect when studying boundary-layer winds....

  1. Modelling and transient stability of large wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akhmatov, Vladislav; Knudsen, Hans; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

    2003-01-01

    by a physical model of grid-connected windmills. The windmill generators ate conventional induction generators and the wind farm is ac-connected to the power system. Improvements-of short-term voltage stability in case of failure events in the external power system are treated with use of conventional generator...... technology. This subject is treated as a parameter study with respect to the windmill electrical and mechanical parameters and with use of control strategies within the conventional generator technology. Stability improvements on the wind farm side of the connection point lead to significant reduction......The paper is dealing-with modelling and short-term Voltage stability considerations of large wind farms. A physical model of a large offshore wind farm consisting of a large number of windmills is implemented in the dynamic simulation tool PSS/E. Each windmill in the wind farm is represented...

  2. Capacity expansion model of wind power generation based on ELCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Bo; Zong, Jin; Wu, Shengyu

    2018-02-01

    Capacity expansion is an indispensable prerequisite for power system planning and construction. A reasonable, efficient and accurate capacity expansion model (CEM) is crucial to power system planning. In most current CEMs, the capacity of wind power generation is considered as boundary conditions instead of decision variables, which may lead to curtailment or over construction of flexible resource, especially at a high renewable energy penetration scenario. This paper proposed a wind power generation capacity value(CV) calculation method based on effective load-carrying capability, and a CEM that co-optimizes wind power generation and conventional power sources. Wind power generation is considered as decision variable in this model, and the model can accurately reflect the uncertainty nature of wind power.

  3. F-Region Neutral Winds Obtained from the Thermospheric Wind Assimilation Model (TWAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, I.; Scherliess, L.; Lomidze, L.

    2017-12-01

    Thermospheric neutral winds play a major role in the transport of energy and momentum in the Earth's upper atmosphere. They are also responsible for changes in the composition of the thermosphere and affect the dynamics and morphology of the ionospheric plasma. However, direct observations of the winds are limited both temporally and spatially, which makes global studies very difficult. On the other hand, ionospheric measurements are relatively easier to make and there is a very good distribution of various instruments worldwide. Data assimilation is a technique that combines information from observations and a physical model. Observed data are assimilated into the model as a constraint for the physical equations that describe the dynamics of the system, which allows estimates of unobserved driving forces, e.g., the neutral wind. The Thermospheric Wind Assimilation Model (TWAM) is a data assimilation model that uses the output of the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements Full Physics (GAIM-FP) model. GAIM-FP is an ionospheric data assimilation model that is based on an ensemble Kalman filter. The ionosphere and plasmasphere electron density and its associated errors are evolved using a physics-based Ionosphere-Plasmasphere Model which solves the ion and electron continuity and momentum equations numerically. TWAM uses an implicit Kalman filter and combines the magnetic meridional winds from GAIM-FP with the equation of motion of the neutral gas. TWAM also uses information from GAIM-FP about the 3-D electron density and ion diffusion velocities. The output of the model is the global zonal and meridional thermospheric neutral winds at low and mid latitudes. This approach has been successfully used to investigate the climatology of thermospheric neutral winds and the physical mechanisms that drive the Weddell Sea Anomaly. We present the first results of our efforts to develop TWAM to use it to analyze day-to-day quiet time data.

  4. A model of rotationally-sampled wind turbulence for predicting fatigue loads in wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spera, David A.

    1995-01-01

    Empirical equations are presented with which to model rotationally-sampled (R-S) turbulence for input to structural-dynamic computer codes and the calculation of wind turbine fatigue loads. These equations are derived from R-S turbulence data which were measured at the vertical-plane array in Clayton, New Mexico. For validation, the equations are applied to the calculation of cyclic flapwise blade loads for the NASA/DOE Mod-2 2.5-MW experimental HAWT's (horizontal-axis wind turbines), and the results compared to measured cyclic loads. Good correlation is achieved, indicating that the R-S turbulence model developed in this study contains the characteristics of the wind which produce many of the fatigue loads sustained by wind turbines. Empirical factors are included which permit the prediction of load levels at specified percentiles of occurrence, which is required for the generation of fatigue load spectra and the prediction of the fatigue lifetime of structures.

  5. Modelling of a chaotic load of wind turbines drivetrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielecki, Andrzej; Barszcz, Tomasz; Wójcik, Mateusz

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a model of the load of the wind turbine gears for simulation of real, varying operational conditions for modelling of wind turbine vibration. The characteristics of the wind, which generates chaotically varying loads on the drivetrain components generating load in teeth and bearings of gears during torque transfer, are discussed. A generator of variable load of wind turbines drivetrain is proposed. Firstly, the module for generation of wind speed is designed. It is based on the approach in which the wind speed was considered as a time series approximated by the Weierstrass function. Secondly, the rotational speed of the main shaft is proposed as a function of the wind speed value. The function depends on a few parameters that are fitted by using a genetic algorithm. Finally, the model of torque of the main shaft is introduced. This model has been created by using a multi-layer artificial neural network. The results show that the proposed approach yields a very good fit for the experimental data. The fit brings about the proper reproducing of all the aspects of the load that are crucial for causing fatigue and, as a consequence, damaging of gears of the wind turbines.

  6. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...

  7. Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanz Rodrigo, Javier; Chávez Arroyo, Roberto Aurelio; Moriarty, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    The increasing size of wind turbines, with rotors already spanning more than 150m diameter and hub heights above 100m, requires proper modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) from the surface to the free atmosphere. Furthermore, large wind farm arrays create their own boundary layer stru...

  8. Wind Power Curve Modeling in Simple and Complex Terrain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulaevskaya, V. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Wharton, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Irons, Z. [Enel Green Power North America, Andover, MA (United States); Qualley, G. [Pentalum, Colleyville, TX (United States)

    2015-02-09

    Our previous work on wind power curve modeling using statistical models focused on a location with a moderately complex terrain in the Altamont Pass region in northern California (CA). The work described here is the follow-up to that work, but at a location with a simple terrain in northern Oklahoma (OK). The goal of the present analysis was to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding information beyond the hub-height wind speed, such as wind speeds at other heights, as well as other atmospheric variables, to the power prediction model at this new location and compare the results to those obtained at the CA site in the previous study. While we reach some of the same conclusions at both sites, many results reported for the CA site do not hold at the OK site. In particular, using the entire vertical profile of wind speeds improves the accuracy of wind power prediction relative to using the hub-height wind speed alone at both sites. However, in contrast to the CA site, the rotor equivalent wind speed (REWS) performs almost as well as the entire profile at the OK site. Another difference is that at the CA site, adding wind veer as a predictor significantly improved the power prediction accuracy. The same was true for that site when air density was added to the model separately instead of using the standard air density adjustment. At the OK site, these additional variables result in no significant benefit for the prediction accuracy.

  9. Interval forecasts of a novelty hybrid model for wind speeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Qin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The utilization of wind energy, as a booming technology in the field of renewable energies, has been highly regarded around the world. Quantification of uncertainties associated with accurate wind speed forecasts is essential for regulating wind power generation and integration. However, it remains difficult work primarily due to the stochastic and nonlinear characteristics of wind speed series. Traditional models for wind speed forecasting mostly focus on generating certain predictive values, which cannot properly handle uncertainties. For quantifying potential uncertainties, a hybrid model constructed by the Cuckoo Search Optimization (CSO-based Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN is proposed to establish wind speed interval forecasts (IFs by estimating the lower and upper bounds. The quality of IFs is assessed quantitatively using IFs coverage probability (IFCP and IFs normalized average width (IFNAW. Moreover, to assess the overall quality of IFs comprehensively, a tradeoff between informativeness (IFNAW and validity (IFCP of IFs is examined by coverage width-based criteria (CWC. As an applicative study, wind speeds from the Xinjiang Region in China are used to validate the proposed hybrid model. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can construct higher quality IFs for short-term wind speed forecasts.

  10. Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle

    2018-01-01

    For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

  11. A Combined Reliability Model of VSC-HVDC Connected Offshore Wind Farms Considering Wind Speed Correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    and WTGs outage. The wind speed correlation between different WFs is included in the two-dimensional multistate WF model by using an improved k-means clustering method. Then, the entire system with two WFs and a threeterminal VSC-HVDC system is modeled as a multi-state generation unit. The proposed model...

  12. Wind model for low frequency power fluctuations in offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vigueras-Rodríguez, A.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2010-01-01

    of hours, taking into account the spectral correlation between different wind turbines. The modelling is supported by measurements from two large wind farms, namely Nysted and Horns Rev. Measurements from individual wind turbines and meteorological masts are used. Finally, the models are integrated...... into an aggregated model which is used for estimating some electrical parameters as power ramps and reserves requirements, showing a quite good agreement between simulations and measurement. The comparison with measurements generally show that the inclusion of the correlation between low frequency components...... is an improvement, but the effect is relatively small. The effect of including the low frequency components in the model is much more significant. Therefore, that aggregated model is useful in the power system planning and operation, e.g. regarding load following and regulation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons...

  13. An assessment of wind forcing impact on a spectral wave model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The focus of the present study is the assessment of the impact of wind forcing on the spectral wave model MIKE 21 SW in the Indian Ocean region. Three different wind fields, namely the ECMWF analyzed winds, the ECMWF blended winds, and the NCEP blended winds have been used to drive the model. The wave model ...

  14. Perceived Risk and Response to the Wind Turbine Ice Throw Hazard: Comparing Community Stakeholders and Operations and Maintenance Personnel in Two Regions of Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Greg

    Risk managers who work directly with wind energy know that accumulations of ice on wind turbine blades pose a substantial risk to wind farm employees and a lesser extent to the general public. However, overall, the hazards of ice throw are not generally known to the public, as there has not been a significant event in the U.S. which has drawn any media attention. As we continue to install more and more turbines, the number of people exposed greatly increases, and it is only a matter of time before the industry suffers a severe incident or even a fatality. Thus, the goals of this research were threefold: 1) to understand the extent to which two at-risk groups--community stakeholders as well as operations and maintenance personnel at wind farms might differ in their perceived levels of risk to the ice throw hazard; 2) to understand the degree to which community stakeholders and operations and maintenance might differ on choosing measures of protection for their affected areas; and 3) to improve safety by identifying protective measures that all stakeholders--community citizens, wind farm employees, contractors, and land owners--are willing to undertake to mitigate their risk against the ice throw hazard which includes adopting measures to reduce their own risk toward the hazard, as well as, their community's vulnerability toward the hazards and threat of ice throw from wind turbines. This research also makes a valuable contribution to the theoretical body of risk research with respect to a technological hazard for which little is known. This research found that the two groups differed on statistically significant variables for observed risk, perceived personal risk, risk to the community, levels of trust in safety leaders, best protective actions, and preferred warning systems; however, there was no statistical significance between the groups on perceived benefits of wind energy.

  15. Evaluating winds and vertical wind shear from Weather Research and Forecasting model forecasts using seven planetary boundary layer schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Draxl, Caroline; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    with different PBL parameterizations at one coastal site over western Denmark. The evaluation focuses on determining which PBL parameterization performs best for wind energy forecasting, and presenting a validation methodology that takes into account wind speed at different heights. Winds speeds at heights...... regarding wind energy at these levels partly depends on the formulation and implementation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations in these models. This study evaluates wind speeds and vertical wind shears simulated by theWeather Research and Forecasting model using seven sets of simulations...

  16. A noise generation and propagation model for large wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertagnolio, Franck

    2016-01-01

    A wind turbine noise calculation model is combined with a ray tracing method in order to estimate wind farm noise in its surrounding assuming an arbitrary topography. The wind turbine noise model is used to generate noise spectra for which each turbine is approximated as a point source. However......, the detailed three-dimensional directivity features are taken into account for the further calculation of noise propagation over the surrounding terrain. An arbitrary number of turbines constituting a wind farm can be spatially distributed. The noise from each individual turbine is propagated into the far......-field using the ray tracing method. These results are added up assuming the noise from each turbine is uncorrelated. The methodology permits to estimate a wind farm noise map over the surrounding terrain in a reasonable amount of computational time on a personal computer....

  17. Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

  18. TsuPy: Computational robustness in Tsunami hazard modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Andreas M.; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2017-05-01

    Modelling wave propagation is the most essential part in assessing the risk and hazard of tsunami and storm surge events. For the computational assessment of the variability of such events, many simulations are necessary. Even today, most of these simulations are generally run on supercomputers due to the large amount of computations necessary. In this study, a simulation framework, named TsuPy, is introduced to quickly compute tsunami events on a personal computer. It uses the parallelized power of GPUs to accelerate computation. The system is tailored to the application of robust tsunami hazard and risk modelling. It links up to geophysical models to simulate event sources. The system is tested and validated using various benchmarks and real-world case studies. In addition, the robustness criterion is assessed based on a sensitivity study comparing the error impact of various model elements e.g. of topo-bathymetric resolution, knowledge of Manning friction parameters and the knowledge of the tsunami source itself. This sensitivity study is tested on inundation modelling of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, showing that the major contributor to model uncertainty is in fact the representation of earthquake slip as part of the tsunami source profile. TsuPy provides a fast and reliable tool to quickly assess ocean hazards from tsunamis and thus builds the foundation for a globally uniform hazard and risk assessment for tsunamis.

  19. IEA-Task 31 WAKEBENCH: Towards a protocol for wind farm flow model evaluation. Part 2: Wind farm wake models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moriarty, Patrick; Rodrigo, Javier Sanz; Gancarski, Pawel

    2014-01-01

    .windbench.net). This paper provides an overview of the building-block validation approach applied to wind farm wake models, including best practices for the benchmarking and data processing procedures for validation datasets from wind farm SCADA and meteorological databases. A hierarchy of test cases has been proposed...

  20. Model predictive control of wind energy conversion systems

    CERN Document Server

    Yaramasu, Venkata Narasimha R

    2017-01-01

    The authors provide a comprehensive analysis on the model predictive control of power converters employed in a wide variety of variable-speed wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The contents of this book includes an overview of wind energy system configurations, power converters for variable-speed WECS, digital control techniques, MPC, modeling of power converters and wind generators for MPC design. Other topics include the mapping of continuous-time models to discrete-time models by various exact, approximate, and quasi-exact discretization methods, modeling and control of wind turbine grid-side two-level and multilevel voltage source converters. The authors also focus on the MPC of several power converter configurations for full variable-speed permanent magnet synchronous generator based WECS, squirrel-cage induction generator based WECS, and semi-variable-speed doubly fed induction generator based WECS.

  1. Wall correction model for wind tunnels with open test section

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Shen, Wen Zhong; Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming

    2006-01-01

    In the paper we present a correction model for wall interference on rotors of wind turbines or propellers in wind tunnels. The model, which is based on a one-dimensional momentum approach, is validated against results from CFD computations using a generalized actuator disc principle. In the model...... the exchange of axial momentum between the tunnel and the ambient room is represented by a simple formula, derived from actuator disc computations. The correction model is validated against Navier-Stokes computations of the flow about a wind turbine rotor. Generally, the corrections from the model are in very...... good agreement with the CFD computations, demonstrating that one-dimensional momentum theory is a reliable way of predicting corrections for wall interference in wind tunnels with closed as well as open cross sections....

  2. Robust Model Predictive Control of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2012-01-01

    , a new sensor is introduced in the EKF to give faster estimations. Wind speed estimation error is used to assess uncertainties in the linearized model. Significant uncertainties are considered to be in the gain of the system (B matrix of the state space model). Therefore this special structure......In this work the problem of robust model predictive control (robust MPC) of a wind turbine in the full load region is considered. A minimax robust MPC approach is used to tackle the problem. Nonlinear dynamics of the wind turbine are derived by combining blade element momentum (BEM) theory...... and first principle modeling of the turbine flexible structure. Thereafter the nonlinear model is linearized using Taylor series expansion around system operating points. Operating points are determined by effective wind speed and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is employed to estimate this. In addition...

  3. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  4. On Practical tuning of Model Uncertainty in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    model of a wind turbine. In this paper, we investigate the impact of this approach on the performance of a wind turbine. In particular, we focus on the most non-linear operational ranges of a wind turbine. The MPC controller is designed for, tested, and evaluated at an industrial high fidelity wind......Model predictive control (MPC) has in previous works been applied on wind turbines with promising results. These results apply linear MPC, i.e., linear models linearized at different operational points depending on the wind speed. The linearized models are derived from a nonlinear first principles...... parameters in the linearized model to fit the actual physical wind turbine behavior. We evaluate the MPC with the different model parameters, and show that, e.g., over-speed events are avoided, and a good performance of the wind turbine control is obtained....

  5. Wind-wave modelling aspects within complicate topography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Christopoulos

    Full Text Available Wave forecasting aspects for basins with complicate geomorphology, such as the Aegean Sea, are investigated through an intercomparison study. The efficiency of the available wind models (ECMWF, UKMO to reproduce wind patterns over special basins, as well as three wave models incorporating different physics and characteristics (WAM, AUT, WACCAS, are tested for selected storm cases representing the typical wind situations over the basin. From the wave results, discussed in terms of time-series and statistical parameters, the crucial role is pointed out of the wind resolution and the reliability of the different wave models to estimate the wave climate in such a basin. The necessary grid resolution is also tested, while for a specific test case (December 1991 ERS-1 satellite data are compared with those of the model.

  6. Engineering models for merging wakes in wind farm optimization applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machefaux, Ewan; Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo

    2015-01-01

    The present paper deals with validation of 4 different engineering wake superposition approaches against detailed CFD simulations and covering different turbine interspacing, ambient turbulence intensities and mean wind speeds. The first engineering model is a simple linear superposition of wake ...

  7. Quantitative analysis of a wind energy conversion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucker, Florian; Gräbner, Anna; Strunz, Andreas; Meyn, Jan-Peter

    2015-01-01

    A rotor of 12 cm diameter is attached to a precision electric motor, used as a generator, to make a model wind turbine. Output power of the generator is measured in a wind tunnel with up to 15 m s −1 air velocity. The maximum power is 3.4 W, the power conversion factor from kinetic to electric energy is c p = 0.15. The v 3 power law is confirmed. The model illustrates several technically important features of industrial wind turbines quantitatively. (paper)

  8. An aerodynamic noise propagation model for wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Wei Jun; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Shen, Wen Zhong

    2005-01-01

    A model based on 2-D sound ray theory for aerodynamic noise propagation from wind turbine rotating blades is introduced. The model includes attenuation factors from geometric spreading, sound directivity of source, air absorption, ground deflection and reflection, as well as effects from...... temperature and airflow. At a given receiver point, the sound pressure is corrected by taking into account these propagation effects. As an overall assumption, the noise field generated by the wind turbine is simplified as a point source placed at the hub height of the wind turbine. This assumtion...

  9. Wind power electric systems modeling, simulation and control

    CERN Document Server

    Rekioua, Djamila

    2014-01-01

    The book helps readers understand key concepts in standalone and grid connected wind energy systems and features analysis into the modeling and optimization of commonly used configurations through the implementation of different control strategies.Utilizing several electrical machinery control approaches, such as vector control and direct torque control 'Wind Power Electric Systems' equips readers with the means to understand, assess and develop their own wind energy systems and to evaluate the performance of such systems.Mathematical models are provided for each system and a corresponding MAT

  10. Quantitative analysis of a wind energy conversion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucker, Florian; Gräbner, Anna; Strunz, Andreas; Meyn, Jan-Peter

    2015-03-01

    A rotor of 12 cm diameter is attached to a precision electric motor, used as a generator, to make a model wind turbine. Output power of the generator is measured in a wind tunnel with up to 15 m s-1 air velocity. The maximum power is 3.4 W, the power conversion factor from kinetic to electric energy is cp = 0.15. The v3 power law is confirmed. The model illustrates several technically important features of industrial wind turbines quantitatively.

  11. Sequence Domain Harmonic Modeling of Type-IV Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim Høj; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

    2017-01-01

    -sampled pulsewidth modulation and an analysis of converter generated voltage harmonics due to compensated dead-time. The decoupling capabilities of the proposed the SD harmonic model are verified through a power quality (PQ) assessment of a 3MW Type-IV wind turbine. The assessment shows that the magnitude and phase...... of low-order odd converter generated voltage harmonics are dependent on the converter operating point and the phase of the fundamental component of converter current respectively. The SD harmonic model can be used to make PQ assessments of Type-IV wind turbines or incorporated into harmonic load flows...... for computation of PQ in wind power plants....

  12. The additive hazards model with high-dimensional regressors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers estimation and prediction in the Aalen additive hazards model in the case where the covariate vector is high-dimensional such as gene expression measurements. Some form of dimension reduction of the covariate space is needed to obtain useful statistical analyses. We study...

  13. Toward Building a New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z.

    2015-12-01

    At present, the only publicly available seismic hazard model for mainland China was generated by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program in 1999. We are building a new seismic hazard model by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data using the methodology recommended by Global Earthquake Model (GEM), and derive a strain rate map based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones based on seismotectonics. For each zone, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) relationship to model the seismicity rates. We estimate the TGR a- and b-values from the historical earthquake data, and constrain corner magnitude using the seismic moment rate derived from the strain rate. From the TGR distributions, 10,000 to 100,000 years of synthetic earthquakes are simulated. Then, we distribute small and medium earthquakes according to locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes. Some large earthquakes are distributed on active faults based on characteristics of the faults, including slip rate, fault length and width, and paleoseismic data, and the rest to the background based on the distributions of historical earthquakes and strain rate. We evaluate available ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) by comparison to observed ground motions. To apply appropriate GMPEs, we divide the region into active and stable tectonics. The seismic hazard will be calculated using the OpenQuake software developed by GEM. To account for site amplifications, we construct a site condition map based on geology maps. The resulting new seismic hazard map can be used for seismic risk analysis and management, and business and land-use planning.

  14. PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WIND, AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, D.; (NOEMAIL), A.; Shine, G.

    2013-12-04

    Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities - tornadoes, straight winds, and heavy precipitation - are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 1998 by Weber, et al., are given. Using tornado statistics for the states of Georgia and South Carolina, we calculated the probability per year of any location within a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 1.15E-3 (1 chance in 870) per year and wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years, 125,000 years, and 1E+7 years (USDOE, 2012) were estimated to be 136 mph, 151 mph and 221 mph, respectively. In 1998 the strike probability for SRS was estimated to be 3.53 E-4 and the return period wind speeds were 148 mph every 50,000 years and 180 mph every 125,000 years. A 1E+7 year tornado wind speed was not calculated in 1998; however a 3E+6 year wind speed was 260 mph. The lower wind speeds resulting from this most recent analysis are largely due to new data since 1998, and to a lesser degree differences in the models used. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years, 173 mph every 125,000 years, and 230 mph every 1E+7 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS model and the SRS models are very similar, the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a Gumbel

  15. Simulation platform to model, optimize and design wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iov, F.; Hansen, A.D.; Soerensen, P.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2004-03-01

    This report is a general overview of the results obtained in the project 'Electrical Design and Control. Simulation Platform to Model, Optimize and Design Wind Turbines'. The motivation for this research project is the ever-increasing wind energy penetration into the power network. Therefore, the project has the main goal to create a model database in different simulation tools for a system optimization of the wind turbine systems. Using this model database a simultaneous optimization of the aerodynamic, mechanical, electrical and control systems over the whole range of wind speeds and grid characteristics can be achieved. The report is structured in six chapters. First, the background of this project and the main goals as well as the structure of the simulation platform is given. The main topologies for wind turbines, which have been taken into account during the project, are briefly presented. Then, the considered simulation tools namely: HAWC, DIgSILENT, Saber and Matlab/Simulink have been used in this simulation platform are described. The focus here is on the modelling and simulation time scale aspects. The abilities of these tools are complementary and they can together cover all the modelling aspects of the wind turbines e.g. mechanical loads, power quality, switching, control and grid faults. However, other simulation packages e.g PSCAD/EMTDC can easily be added in the simulation platform. New models and new control algorithms for wind turbine systems have been developed and tested in these tools. All these models are collected in dedicated libraries in Matlab/Simulink as well as in Saber. Some simulation results from the considered tools are presented for MW wind turbines. These simulation results focuses on fixed-speed and variable speed/pitch wind turbines. A good agreement with the real behaviour of these systems is obtained for each simulation tool. These models can easily be extended to model different kinds of wind turbines or large wind

  16. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Torcasio

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013 three-model ensemble (TME experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council – Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC, are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System, BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model, and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates. The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System. Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  17. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  18. Goodness-of-fit test for proportional subdistribution hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bingqing; Fine, Jason; Laird, Glen

    2013-09-30

    This paper concerns using modified weighted Schoenfeld residuals to test the proportionality of subdistribution hazards for the Fine-Gray model, similar to the tests proposed by Grambsch and Therneau for independently censored data. We develop a score test for the time-varying coefficients based on the modified Schoenfeld residuals derived assuming a certain form of non-proportionality. The methods perform well in simulations and a real data analysis of breast cancer data, where the treatment effect exhibits non-proportional hazards. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Wind tunnel modeling of roadways: Comparison with mathematical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidorn, K.; Davies, A.E.; Murphy, M.C.

    1991-01-01

    The assessment of air quality impacts from roadways is a major concern to urban planners. In order to assess future road and building configurations, a number of techniques have been developed including mathematical models, which simulate traffic emissions and atmospheric dispersion through a series of mathematical relationships and physical models. The latter models simulate emissions and dispersion through scaling of these processes in a wind tunnel. Two roadway mathematical models, HIWAY-2 and CALINE-4, were applied to a proposed development in a large urban area. Physical modeling procedures developed by Rowan Williams Davies and Irwin Inc. (RWDI) in the form of line source simulators were also applied, and the resulting carbon monoxide concentrations were compared. The results indicated a factor of two agreement between the mathematical and physical models. The physical model, however, reacted to change in building massing and configuration. The mathematical models did not, since no provision for such changes was included in the mathematical models. In general, the RWDI model resulted in higher concentrations than either HIWAY-2 or CALINE-4. Where there was underprediction, it was often due to shielding of the receptor by surrounding buildings. Comparison of these three models with the CALTRANS Tracer Dispersion Experiment showed good results although concentrations were consistently underpredicted

  20. Demonstration of the Ability of RCAS to Model Wind Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonkman, J.; Cotrell, J.

    2003-08-01

    In recent years, the wind industry has sponsored the development, verification, and validation of comprehensive aeroelastic simulators, which are used for wind turbine design, certification, and research. Unfortunately, as wind turbines continue to grow in size and sometimes exhibit unconventional design characteristics, the existing codes do not always support the additional analysis features required for proper design. The development history, functionality, and advanced nature of RCAS (Rotorcraft Comprehensive Analysis System) make this code a sensible option. RCAS is an aeroelastic simulator developed over a 4-year cooperative effort amongst the U.S. Army's Aeroflightdynamics Directorate, Advanced Rotorcraft Technology (ART), Inc., and the helicopter industry. As its name suggests, RCAS was created for the rotorcraft industry but developed as a general purpose code for modeling the aerodynamic and structural response of any system with rotating and nonrotating subsystems (such as wind turbines). To demonstrate that RCAS can analyze wind turbines, models of a conventional, 1.5-MW, 3-bladed, upwind, horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) are created in RCAS and wind turbine analysis codes FAST (Fatigue, Aerodynamics, Structures, and Turbulence) and ADAMS (Automatic Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems). Using these models, a side-by-side comparison of structural response predictions is performed under several test scenarios.

  1. Fluctuations of offshore wind generation: Statistical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Christensen, Lasse E.A.; Madsen, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    The magnitude of power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms has a significant impact on the control and management strategies of their power output. If focusing on the minute scale, one observes successive periods with smaller and larger power fluctuations. It seems that different regimes yi...

  2. Stellar wind models of subluminous hot stars

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krtička, J.; Kubát, Jiří; Krtičková, I.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 593, September (2016), A101/1-A101/14 ISSN 0004-6361 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-10589S Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LM2010005 Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : stars * winds * outflows Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 4.378, year: 2014

  3. NLTE wind models of hot subdwarf stars

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krtička, J.; Kubát, Jiří

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 329, 1-2 (2010), s. 145-150 ISSN 0004-640X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0031 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10030501 Keywords : stars * winds * outflows Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 1.437, year: 2010

  4. Models for wind turbines - a collection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2002-01-01

    This report is a collection of notes which were intended to be short communications. Main target of the work presented is to supply new approaches to stability investigations of wind turbines. The author's opinion is that an efficient, systematicstability analysis can not be performed for large...

  5. Reducing Turbine Mechanical Loads Using Flow Model-Based Wind Farm Controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kazda, Jonas; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    WindFarm [2]. SimWindFarm allows for the simultaneous simulation of the turbulent hub height flow field in the wind farm, the turbine dynamics and the wind farm control. The tests show a reduction of loads when compared to other optimal wind farm control approaches. Future work shall enhance the controller......Cumulated O&M costs of offshore wind farms are comparable with wind turbine CAPEX of such wind farm. In wind farms, wake effects can result in up to 80% higher fatigue loads at downstream wind turbines [1] and consequently larger O&M costs. The present work therefore investigates to reduce...... these loads during the provision of grid balancing services using optimal model-based wind farm control. Wind farm controllers coordinate the operating point of wind turbines in a wind farm in order to achieve a given objective. The investigated objective of the control in this work is to follow a total wind...

  6. The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Frankel, Arthur; Zeng, Yuehua; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Harmsen, Stephen; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Chen, Rui; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell; Williams, Robert; Olsen, Anna H.

    2015-01-01

    New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

  7. Influence of Regional Climate Model spatial resolution on wind climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Nikulin, G.; Jones, C.

    2010-12-01

    Global and regional climate models are being run at increasingly fine horizontal and vertical resolution with the goal of increased skill. However, relatively few studies have quantified the change in modeled wind climates that derives from applying a Regional Climate Model (RCM) at varying resolutions, and the response to varying resolution may be highly non-linear since most models run in climate mode are hydrostatic. Thus, herein we examine the influence of grid-resolution on modelled wind speeds and gusts and derived extremes thereof over southern Scandinavia using output from the Rossby Centre (RCA3) RCM run at four different resolutions from 50 x 50 km to 6 x 6 km, and with two different vertical grid-spacings. Domain averaged fifty-year return period wind speeds and wind gusts derived using the method of moments approach to compute the Gumbel parameters, increase with resolution (Table 1), though the change is strongly mediated by the model grid-cell surface characteristics. Power spectra of the 3-hourly model time-step ‘instantaneous’ wind speeds and daily wind gusts at all four resolutions show clear peaks in the variance associated with bi-annual, annual, seasonal and synoptic frequencies. The variance associated with these peaks is enhanced with increased resolution, though not in a monotonic fashion, and is more marked in wind gusts than wind speeds. Relative to in situ observations, the model generally underestimates the variance, particularly associated with the synoptic time scale, even for the highest resolution simulations. There is some evidence to suggest that the change in the power spectra with horizontal resolution is less marked in the transition from 12.5 km to 6.25 km, than from 50 to 25 km, or 25 km to 12.5 km.Table 1. Domain averaged mean annual wind speed (U), 50-year return period extreme wind speed (U50yr) and wind gust (Gust50yr) (m/s) from the four RCA3 simulations at different resolution based on output from 1987-2008. The

  8. A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

    2017-12-01

    We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

  9. Comparison of wind and wind shear climatologies derived from high-resolution radiosondes and the ECMWF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houchi, K.; Stoffelen, A.; Marseille, G. J.; de Kloe, J.

    2010-11-01

    The climatology of atmospheric horizontal wind and its vertical gradient, i.e., wind shear, is characterized as a function of climate region. For a better representation of the average atmospheric wind and shear and their variabilities, high-resolution radiosonde wind profiles up to about 30 km altitude are compared with the collocated operational ECMWF model for short-range forecast winds. Statistics of zonal and meridional winds are established from both data sets. The results show mainly similarity in the probability distributions of the modeled and observed horizontal winds, practically at all levels of the atmosphere, while at the same time the vertical shear of the wind is substantially underestimated in the model. The comparison of shear statistics of radiosonde and ECMWF model winds shows that the model wind shear mean and variability are on average a factor of 2.5 (zonal) and 3 (meridional) smaller than of radiosondes in the free troposphere, while in the stratosphere, the planetary boundary layer results are more variable. By applying vertical averaging to the radiosonde data, it is found that the effective vertical resolution of the ECMWF model is typically 1.7 km. Moreover, it is found for individually collocated radiosonde model wind and shear profiles that the model wind may lack in some cases variability larger than 5 m s-1 and 0.015 s-1, respectively, due mainly to the effect of lacking vertical resolution, in particular near the jets. Besides the general importance of this study in highlighting the difference in the representation of the atmospheric wind shear by model and observations, it is more specifically relevant for the future Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM-Aeolus) of the European Space Agency due for launch in 2012. The results presented here are used to generate a realistic global atmospheric database, which is necessary to conduct simulations of the Aeolus Doppler wind lidar in order optimize its vertical sampling and processing.

  10. Online identification of wind model for improving quadcopter trajectory monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniak, Ryszard; Gudzenko, Oleksandr

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we consider a problem of quadcopter control in severe weather conditions. One type of such weather conditions is a strong variable wind. In this paper, we ponder deterministic and stochastic models of winds at low altitudes with the quadcopter performing aggressive maneuvers. We choose an adaptive algorithm as our control algorithm. This algorithm might seem suitable one to solve the given problem, as it is able to adjust quickly to changing conditions. However, as shown in the paper, this algorithm is not applicable to rapidly changing winds and requires additional filters to smooth the impulse streams, so as not to lose the stability of the object.

  11. Online identification of wind model for improving quadcopter trajectory monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beniak Ryszard

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a problem of quadcopter control in severe weather conditions. One type of such weather conditions is a strong variable wind. In this paper, we ponder deterministic and stochastic models of winds at low altitudes with the quadcopter performing aggressive maneuvers. We choose an adaptive algorithm as our control algorithm. This algorithm might seem suitable one to solve the given problem, as it is able to adjust quickly to changing conditions. However, as shown in the paper, this algorithm is not applicable to rapidly changing winds and requires additional filters to smooth the impulse streams, so as not to lose the stability of the object.

  12. Short-Term Wind Speed Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bias Correcting Study and Its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Mingfei Niu; Shaolong Sun; Jie Wu; Yuanlei Zhang

    2015-01-01

    The accuracy of wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. In particular, reliable short-term wind speed forecasting can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed, the forecasting of wind speed data using different patterns is difficult. This paper proposes a novel combination bias c...

  13. IEA-Task 31 WAKEBENCH: Towards a protocol for wind farm flow model evaluation. Part 2: Wind farm wake models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moriarty, Patrick; Rodrigo, Javier Sanz; Gancarski, Pawel; Chuchfield, Matthew; Naughton, Jonathan W; Hansen, Kurt S; Machefaux, Ewan; Maguire, Eoghan; Castellani, Francesco; Terzi, Ludovico; Breton, Simon-Philippe; Ueda, Yuko

    2014-01-01

    Researchers within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Task 31: Wakebench have created a framework for the evaluation of wind farm flow models operating at the microscale level. The framework consists of a model evaluation protocol integrated with a web-based portal for model benchmarking (www.windbench.net). This paper provides an overview of the building-block validation approach applied to wind farm wake models, including best practices for the benchmarking and data processing procedures for validation datasets from wind farm SCADA and meteorological databases. A hierarchy of test cases has been proposed for wake model evaluation, from similarity theory of the axisymmetric wake and idealized infinite wind farm, to single-wake wind tunnel (UMN-EPFL) and field experiments (Sexbierum), to wind farm arrays in offshore (Horns Rev, Lillgrund) and complex terrain conditions (San Gregorio). A summary of results from the axisymmetric wake, Sexbierum, Horns Rev and Lillgrund benchmarks are used to discuss the state-of-the-art of wake model validation and highlight the most relevant issues for future development

  14. A Numerical Model for a Floating TLP Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kumari Ramachandran, Gireesh Kumar Vasanta

    A numerical model is developed for a TLP configuration of a floating offshore wind turbine. The platform dynamics and hydrodynamic forces are derived and implemented in an advanced aero-elastic code, Flex5, to compute the hydro-aero-servo-elastic loads and responses on the floater and the wind...... turbine. This is achieved through three steps. In the first step, an independent 2D code with fourteen degrees of freedom (DOFs) is developed and the responses are verified for load cases concerning steady and spatially coherent turbulent wind with regular and irregular waves. In the second step, the 2D...... irregular waves. In addition, the effect of wind-wave misalignment is investigated. Further, in the third step, the 3D platform dynamics and wave loading are implemented into Flex5, resulting in a fully coupled hydro-aero-servo-elastic code. The implementation is tested to make the model reliable and robust...

  15. SIMWEST - A simulation model for wind energy storage systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edsinger, R. W.; Warren, A. W.; Gordon, L. H.; Chang, G. C.

    1978-01-01

    This paper describes a comprehensive and efficient computer program for the modeling of wind energy systems with storage. The level of detail of SIMWEST (SImulation Model for Wind Energy STorage) is consistent with evaluating the economic feasibility as well as the general performance of wind energy systems with energy storage options. The software package consists of two basic programs and a library of system, environmental, and control components. The first program is a precompiler which allows the library components to be put together in building block form. The second program performs the technoeconomic system analysis with the required input/output, and the integration of system dynamics. An example of the application of the SIMWEST program to a current 100 kW wind energy storage system is given.

  16. Impacts of Wake Effect and Time Delay on the Dynamic Analysis of Wind Farms Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Fouly, Tarek H. M.; El-Saadany, Ehab F.; Salama, Magdy M. A.

    2008-01-01

    This article investigates the impacts of proper modeling of the wake effects and wind speed delays, between different wind turbines' rows, on the dynamic performance accuracy of the wind farms models. Three different modeling scenarios were compared to highlight the impacts of wake effects and wind speed time-delay models. In the first scenario,…

  17. A high resolution WRF model for wind energy forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Claire Louise; Liu, Yubao

    2010-05-01

    The increasing penetration of wind energy into national electricity markets has increased the demand for accurate surface layer wind forecasts. There has recently been a focus on forecasting the wind at wind farm sites using both statistical models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent advances in computing capacity and non-hydrostatic NWP models means that it is possible to nest mesoscale models down to Large Eddy Simulation (LES) scales over the spatial area of a typical wind farm. For example, the WRF model (Skamarock 2008) has been run at a resolution of 123 m over a wind farm site in complex terrain in Colorado (Liu et al. 2009). Although these modelling attempts indicate a great hope for applying such models for detailed wind forecasts over wind farms, one of the obvious challenges of running the model at this resolution is that while some boundary layer structures are expected to be modelled explicitly, boundary layer eddies into the inertial sub-range can only be partly captured. Therefore, the amount and nature of sub-grid-scale mixing that is required is uncertain. Analysis of Liu et al. (2009) modelling results in comparison to wind farm observations indicates that unrealistic wind speed fluctuations with a period of around 1 hour occasionally occurred during the two day modelling period. The problem was addressed by re-running the same modelling system with a) a modified diffusion constant and b) two-way nesting between the high resolution model and its parent domain. The model, which was run with horizontal grid spacing of 370 m, had dimensions of 505 grid points in the east-west direction and 490 points in the north-south direction. It received boundary conditions from a mesoscale model of resolution 1111 m. Both models had 37 levels in the vertical. The mesoscale model was run with a non-local-mixing planetary boundary layer scheme, while the 370 m model was run with no planetary boundary layer scheme. It was found that increasing the

  18. Wind and tornado guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    The objective of the Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Project is to provide guidance and criteria for design of new facilities and for evaluation of existing ones subjected to extreme winds, earthquakes, and floods. This paper describes the treatment of wind and tornado hazards. Four facility-use categories are defined which represent increasing levels of risk to personnel or the environment in the event of a high wind event. Facilities are assigned to a particular category, depending on their mission, value, or toxic material content. The assigned facility-use category determines the design and evaluation criteria. The criteria are based on probabilistic hazard assessment. Performance goals are also specified for each facility-use category. A uniform approach to design wind loads, based on the ANSI A58.1-1982 standard, allows treatment of high winds and hurricane and tornado winds in a similar manner. Based on the wind hazard models, some sites must account for the possibility of tornadoes while others do not. Atmospheric pressure changes and missiles must be taken into account when considering tornadoes. The design and evaluation guidelines are designed to establish consistent levels of risk for different natural phenomena hazards and for facilities at different geographical locations

  19. Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong YAN

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

  20. Stochastic wind turbine modeling for individual pitch control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz; Niemann, Hans Henrik; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2009-01-01

    and a simplified description of the aerodynamics with sufficient detail to design model-based individual pitch controllers. Combined with a simplified model of the wind turbine, we exemplify how to use the model elements to systematically design an individual pitch controller. The design is investigated...

  1. Nonlinear Eddy Viscosity Models applied to Wind Turbine Wakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laan, van der, Paul Maarten; Sørensen, Niels N.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan

    2013-01-01

    The linear k−ε eddy viscosity model and modified versions of two existing nonlinear eddy viscosity models are applied to single wind turbine wake simulations using a Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes code. Results are compared with field wake measurements. The nonlinear models give better results...

  2. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...

  3. Evaluation of RCAS Inflow Models for Wind Turbine Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tangler, J.; Bir, G.

    2004-02-01

    The finite element structural modeling in the Rotorcraft Comprehensive Analysis System (RCAS) provides a state-of-the-art approach to aeroelastic analysis. This, coupled with its ability to model all turbine components, results in a methodology that can simulate complex system interactions characteristic of large wind. In addition, RCAS is uniquely capable of modeling advanced control algorithms and the resulting dynamic responses.

  4. Modelling the Spatial Distribution of Wind Energy Resources in Latvia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aniskevich, S.; Bezrukovs, V.; Zandovskis, U.; Bezrukovs, D.

    2017-12-01

    The paper studies spatial wind energy flow distribution in Latvia based on wind speed measurements carried out at an altitude of 10 m over a period of two years, from 2015 to 2016. The measurements, with 1 min increments, were carried out using certified measuring instruments installed at 22 observation stations of the Latvian National Hydrometeorological and Climatological Service of the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre (LEGMC). The models of the spatial distribution of averaged wind speed and wind energy density were developed using the method of spatial interpolation based on the historical measurement results and presented in the form of colour contour maps with a 1×1 km resolution. The paper also provides the results of wind speed spatial distribution modelling using a climatological reanalysis ERA5 at the altitudes of 10, 54, 100 and 136 m with a 31×31 km resolution. The analysis includes the comparison of actual wind speed measurement results with the outcomes of ERA5 modelling for meteorological observation stations in Ainazi, Daugavpils, Priekuli, Saldus and Ventspils.

  5. Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Barbosa de Alencar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Generation of electric energy through wind turbines is one of the practically inexhaustible alternatives of generation. It is considered a source of clean energy, but still needs a lot of research for the development of science and technologies that ensures uniformity in generation, providing a greater participation of this source in the energy matrix, since the wind presents abrupt variations in speed, density and other important variables. In wind-based electrical systems, it is essential to predict at least one day in advance the future values of wind behavior, in order to evaluate the availability of energy for the next period, which is relevant information in the dispatch of the generating units and in the control of the electrical system. This paper develops ultra-short, short, medium and long-term prediction models of wind speed, based on computational intelligence techniques, using artificial neural network models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and hybrid models including forecasting using wavelets. For the application of the methodology, the meteorological variables of the database of the national organization system of environmental data (SONDA, Petrolina station, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2017, were used. A comparison among results by different used approaches is also done and it is also predicted the possibility of power and energy generation using a certain kind of wind generator.

  6. Wave modelling for the North Indian Ocean using MSMR analysed winds

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vethamony, P.; Sudheesh, K.; Rupali, S.P.; Babu, M.T.; Jayakumar, S.; Saran, A.K.; Basu, S.K.; Kumar, R.; Sarkar, A.

    NCMRWF (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) winds assimilated with MSMR (Multi-channel Scanning Microwave Radiometer) winds are used as input to MIKE21 Offshore Spectral Wave model (OSW) which takes into account wind induced wave...

  7. Rockfall hazard analysis using LiDAR and spatial modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Hengxing; Martin, C. Derek; Zhou, Chenghu; Lim, Chang Ho

    2010-05-01

    Rockfalls have been significant geohazards along the Canadian Class 1 Railways (CN Rail and CP Rail) since their construction in the late 1800s. These rockfalls cause damage to infrastructure, interruption of business, and environmental impacts, and their occurrence varies both spatially and temporally. The proactive management of these rockfall hazards requires enabling technologies. This paper discusses a hazard assessment strategy for rockfalls along a section of a Canadian railway using LiDAR and spatial modeling. LiDAR provides accurate topographical information of the source area of rockfalls and along their paths. Spatial modeling was conducted using Rockfall Analyst, a three dimensional extension to GIS, to determine the characteristics of the rockfalls in terms of travel distance, velocity and energy. Historical rockfall records were used to calibrate the physical characteristics of the rockfall processes. The results based on a high-resolution digital elevation model from a LiDAR dataset were compared with those based on a coarse digital elevation model. A comprehensive methodology for rockfall hazard assessment is proposed which takes into account the characteristics of source areas, the physical processes of rockfalls and the spatial attribution of their frequency and energy.

  8. Using albedo to reform wind erosion modelling, mapping and monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Adrian; Webb, Nicholas P.

    2016-12-01

    Wind erosion and dust emission models are used to assess the impacts of dust on radiative forcing in the atmosphere, cloud formation, nutrient fertilisation and human health. The models are underpinned by a two-dimensional geometric property (lateral cover; L) used to characterise the three-dimensional aerodynamic roughness (sheltered area or wakes) of the Earth's surface and calibrate the momentum it extracts from the wind. We reveal a fundamental weakness in L and demonstrate that values are an order of magnitude too small and significant aerodynamic interactions between roughness elements and their sheltered areas have been omitted, particularly under sparse surface roughness. We describe a solution which develops published work to establish a relation between sheltered area and the proportion of shadow over a given area; the inverse of direct beam directional hemispherical reflectance (black sky albedo; BSA). We show direct relations between shadow and wind tunnel measurements and thereby provide direct calibrations of key aerodynamic properties. Estimation of the aerodynamic parameters from albedo enables wind erosion assessments over areas, across platforms from the field to airborne and readily available satellite data. Our new approach demonstrated redundancy in existing wind erosion models and thereby reduced model complexity and improved fidelity. We found that the use of albedo enabled an adequate description of aerodynamic sheltering to characterise fluid dynamics and predict sediment transport without the use of a drag partition scheme (Rt) or threshold friction velocity (u∗t). We applied the calibrations to produce global maps of aerodynamic properties which showed very similar spatial patterns to each other and confirmed the redundancy in the traditional parameters of wind erosion modelling. We evaluated temporal patterns of predicted horizontal mass flux at locations across Australia which revealed variation between land cover types that would not

  9. Overload prevention in model supports for wind tunnel model testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton IVANOVICI

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Preventing overloads in wind tunnel model supports is crucial to the integrity of the tested system. Results can only be interpreted as valid if the model support, conventionally called a sting remains sufficiently rigid during testing. Modeling and preliminary calculation can only give an estimate of the sting’s behavior under known forces and moments but sometimes unpredictable, aerodynamically caused model behavior can cause large transient overloads that cannot be taken into account at the sting design phase. To ensure model integrity and data validity an analog fast protection circuit was designed and tested. A post-factum analysis was carried out to optimize the overload detection and a short discussion on aeroelastic phenomena is included to show why such a detector has to be very fast. The last refinement of the concept consists in a fast detector coupled with a slightly slower one to differentiate between transient overloads that decay in time and those that are the result of aeroelastic unwanted phenomena. The decision to stop or continue the test is therefore conservatively taken preserving data and model integrity while allowing normal startup loads and transients to manifest.

  10. Wind Tunnel Management and Resource Optimization: A Systems Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Derya, A.; Aasen, Curtis A.

    2000-01-01

    Time, money, and, personnel are becoming increasingly scarce resources within government agencies due to a reduction in funding and the desire to demonstrate responsible economic efficiency. The ability of an organization to plan and schedule resources effectively can provide the necessary leverage to improve productivity, provide continuous support to all projects, and insure flexibility in a rapidly changing environment. Without adequate internal controls the organization is forced to rely on external support, waste precious resources, and risk an inefficient response to change. Management systems must be developed and applied that strive to maximize the utility of existing resources in order to achieve the goal of "faster, cheaper, better". An area of concern within NASA Langley Research Center was the scheduling, planning, and resource management of the Wind Tunnel Enterprise operations. Nine wind tunnels make up the Enterprise. Prior to this research, these wind tunnel groups did not employ a rigorous or standardized management planning system. In addition, each wind tunnel unit operated from a position of autonomy, with little coordination of clients, resources, or project control. For operating and planning purposes, each wind tunnel operating unit must balance inputs from a variety of sources. Although each unit is managed by individual Facility Operations groups, other stakeholders influence wind tunnel operations. These groups include, for example, the various researchers and clients who use the facility, the Facility System Engineering Division (FSED) tasked with wind tunnel repair and upgrade, the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Fabrication (FAB) group which fabricates repair parts and provides test model upkeep, the NASA and LARC Strategic Plans, and unscheduled use of the facilities by important clients. Expanding these influences horizontally through nine wind tunnel operations and vertically along the NASA management structure greatly increases the

  11. Some challenges of wind modelling for modern wind turbines: The Weibull distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gryning, Sven-Erik; Batchvarova, Ekatarina; Floors, Rogier

    2012-01-01

    Wind power assessments, as well as forecast of wind energy production, are key issues in wind energy and grid related studies. However the hub height of today’s wind turbines is well above the surface layer. Wind profiles studies based on mast data show that the wind profile above the surface layer...

  12. Forwards and Backwards Modelling of Ashfall Hazards in New Zealand by Monte Carlo Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurst, T.; Smith, W. D.; Bibby, H. M.

    2003-12-01

    We have developed a technique for quantifying the probability of particular thicknesses of airfall ash from a volcanic eruption at any given site, using Monte Carlo methods, for hazards planning and insurance purposes. We use an established program (ASHFALL) to model individual eruptions, where the likely thickness of ash deposited at selected sites depends on the location of the volcano, eruptive volume, column height and ash size, and the wind conditions. A Monte Carlo formulation then allows us to simulate the variations in eruptive volume and in wind conditions by analysing repeat eruptions, each time allowing the parameters to vary randomly according to known or assumed distributions. Actual wind velocity profiles are used, with randomness included by selection of a starting date. We show how this method can handle the effects of multiple volcanic sources by aggregation, each source with its own characteristics. This follows a similar procedure which we have used for earthquake hazard assessment. The result is estimates of the frequency with which any given depth of ash is likely to be deposited at the selected site, accounting for all volcanoes that might affect it. These numbers are expressed as annual probabilities or as mean return periods. We can also use this method for obtaining an estimate of how often and how large the eruptions from a particular volcano have been. Results from ash cores in Auckland can give useful bounds for the likely total volumes erupted from the volcano Mt Egmont/Mt Taranaki, 280 km away, during the last 140,000 years, information difficult to obtain from local tephra stratigraphy.

  13. Defaultable Game Options in a Hazard Process Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz R. Bielecki

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The valuation and hedging of defaultable game options is studied in a hazard process model of credit risk. A convenient pricing formula with respect to a reference filteration is derived. A connection of arbitrage prices with a suitable notion of hedging is obtained. The main result shows that the arbitrage prices are the minimal superhedging prices with sigma martingale cost under a risk neutral measure.

  14. Exploration of dispatch model integrating wind generators and electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haque, A.N.M.M.; Ibn Saif, A.U.N.; Nguyen, P.H.; Torbaghan, S.S.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel business model for the BRPs is analyzed. • Imbalance cost of wind generation is considered in the UC-ED model. • Smart charging of EVs is included into the UC-ED problem to mitigate the imbalance cost. • Effects of smart charging on generation cost, CO 2 emissions and total network load are assessed. - Abstract: In recent years, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the electricity generation mix has been expanding rapidly. However, limited predictability of the RES poses challenges for traditional scheduling and dispatching mechanisms based on unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED). This paper presents an advanced UC-ED model to incorporate wind generators as RES-based units alongside conventional centralized generators. In the proposed UC-ED model, an imbalance cost is introduced reflecting the wind generation uncertainty along with the marginal generation cost. The proposed UC-ED model aims to utilize the flexibility of fleets of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to optimally compensate for the wind generation uncertainty. A case study with 15 conventional units and 3 wind farms along with a fixed-sized PEV fleet demonstrates that shifting of PEV fleets charging at times of high wind availability realizes generation cost savings. Nevertheless, the operational cost saving incurred by controlled charging appears to diminish when dispatched wind energy becomes considerably larger than the charging energy of PEV fleets. Further analysis of the results reveals that the effectiveness of PEV control strategy in terms of CO 2 emission reduction is strongly coupled with generation mix and the proposed control strategy is favored in cases where less pollutant-based plants like nuclear and hydro power are profoundly dominant.

  15. Modeling X-ray Emission of Galactic Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomesh, Teague; Gould Zweibel, Ellen; Bustard, Chad

    2017-06-01

    Despite galaxies being the main players on the cosmological scene, and our living inside of one, the processes of evolution which create these structures are still a mystery. Galactic winds are an important component of galaxy evolution and the mechanisms which drive these outflows have yet to be explained. We have incorporated x-ray production into a preexisting model of galactic outflows in order to generate predictions of x-ray luminosity to test current wind theories against observations. Specifically, the model is a representation of thermally driven winds. First, we incorporated the equations for x-ray luminosity into the wind model and tested its effects over a wide range of parameter space. We then created models to match the parameters of several cool galactic outflows previously studied. Finally, we searched the relevant literature for observations of these galaxies that we could use to compare with our predicted luminosities. Our models consistently predicted luminosities within a factor of two of the observed values. This led to the conclusion that if the hot and cool gas are coupled then thermal energy may play a role in the driving of these winds. Unraveling this mystery will be key to understanding galactic outflows and galactic evolution overall.

  16. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  17. Modelling of a PMSG Wind Turbine with Autonomous Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Nan Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to model an autonomous control wind turbine driven permanent magnetic synchronous generator (PMSG which feeds alternating current (AC power to the utility grid. Furthermore, this research also demonstrates the effects and the efficiency of PMSG wind turbine which is integrated by autonomous controllers. In order for well autonomous control, two voltage source inverters are used to control wind turbine connecting with the grid. The generator-side inverter is used to adjust the synchronous generator as well as separating the generator from the grid when necessary. The grid-side inverter controls the power flow between the direct current (DC bus and the AC side. Both of them are oriented control by space vector pulse width modulation (PWM with back-to-back frequency inverter. Moreover, the proportional-integral (PI controller is enhanced to control both of the inverters and the pitch angle of the wind turbine. Maximum power point tracking (MPPT is integrated in generator-side inverter to track the maximum power, when wind speed changes. The simulation results in Matlab Simulink 2012b showing the model have good dynamic and static performance. The maximum power can be tracked and the generator wind turbine can be operated with high efficiency.

  18. Stochastic Optimization of Wind Turbine Power Factor Using Stochastic Model of Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Siano, Pierluigi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic optimization algorithm that aims to minimize the expectation of the system power losses by controlling wind turbine (WT) power factors. This objective of the optimization is subject to the probability constraints of bus voltage and line current requirements....... The optimization algorithm utilizes the stochastic models of wind power generation (WPG) and load demand to take into account their stochastic variation. The stochastic model of WPG is developed on the basis of a limited autoregressive integrated moving average (LARIMA) model by introducing a crosscorrelation...... structure to the LARIMA model. The proposed stochastic optimization is carried out on a 69-bus distribution system. Simulation results confirm that, under various combinations of WPG and load demand, the system power losses are considerably reduced with the optimal setting of WT power factor as compared...

  19. Modular structure of wind turbine models in IEC 61400-27-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Andresen, Bjørn; Fortmann, Jens

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the modular structure of wind turbine models to be published in a new standard IEC 61400-27 for “Electrical simulation models for wind power generation”. The purpose of this standardization work is to define generic simulation models for wind turbines (Part 1) and wind power p...

  20. Model-Based Control of a Ballast-Stabilized Floating Wind Turbine Exposed to Wind and Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Søren

    2013-01-01

    wind turbine, for water depths beyond 50 meters where winds are stronger and less turbulent. A floating wind turbine is subject to not only aerodynamics and wind induced loads, but also to hy-drodynamics and wave induced loads. In contrast to a bottom fixed wind turbine, the floating structure....... A time varying control model is presented based on the wind speed and wave frequency. Estimates of the wind speed and wave frequency are used as scheduling variables in a gain scheduled linear quadratic controller to improve the electrical power production while reducing fatigue. To address the problem...... of negative damped fore--aft tower motion, addi-tional control loops are suggested which stabilize the response of the onshore controller and reduce the impact of the wave induced loads. This research is then extended to model predictive control, to further address wave disturbances. In the context of control...

  1. Recent Experiences in Aftershock Hazard Modelling in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerstenberger, M.; Rhoades, D. A.; McVerry, G.; Christophersen, A.; Bannister, S. C.; Fry, B.; Potter, S.

    2014-12-01

    The occurrence of several sequences of earthquakes in New Zealand in the last few years has meant that GNS Science has gained significant recent experience in aftershock hazard and forecasting. First was the Canterbury sequence of events which began in 2010 and included the destructive Christchurch earthquake of February, 2011. This sequence is occurring in what was a moderate-to-low hazard region of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM): the model on which the building design standards are based. With the expectation that the sequence would produce a 50-year hazard estimate in exceedance of the existing building standard, we developed a time-dependent model that combined short-term (STEP & ETAS) and longer-term (EEPAS) clustering with time-independent models. This forecast was combined with the NSHM to produce a forecast of the hazard for the next 50 years. This has been used to revise building design standards for the region and has contributed to planning of the rebuilding of Christchurch in multiple aspects. An important contribution to this model comes from the inclusion of EEPAS, which allows for clustering on the scale of decades. EEPAS is based on three empirical regressions that relate the magnitudes, times of occurrence, and locations of major earthquakes to regional precursory scale increases in the magnitude and rate of occurrence of minor earthquakes. A second important contribution comes from the long-term rate to which seismicity is expected to return in 50-years. With little seismicity in the region in historical times, a controlling factor in the rate is whether-or-not it is based on a declustered catalog. This epistemic uncertainty in the model was allowed for by using forecasts from both declustered and non-declustered catalogs. With two additional moderate sequences in the capital region of New Zealand in the last year, we have continued to refine our forecasting techniques, including the use of potential scenarios based on the aftershock

  2. Stochastic life-cycle cost analysis of wind parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagaros, Nikos D.; Karlaftis, Matthew G.; Paida, Maria K.

    2015-01-01

    We develop a life-cycle cost model for assessing wind parks; implementing the model requires calculation of cost components that are related to wind tower structural performance for multiple wind hazard levels. We compute the structural capacity of the wind towers by means of nonlinear static structural analysis for three wind hazard levels; then, the limit state dependent and life-cycle costs for the wind park are calculated based on the proposed model. The wind load for each wind hazard level is based on actual collected data and is generated probabilistically. Application of the proposed life-cycle cost analysis model is tested for a wind park with known characteristics (number and location of wind towers, wind potential, and so on). - Highlights: • A life-cycle cost model for wind parks based on nonlinear structural analysis. • The wind load for each wind hazard level is considered by means of stochastic fields. • Implementation of the life-cycle cost analysis model to a wind park in Cyprus.

  3. A BROADBAND EMISSION MODEL OF MAGNETAR WIND NEBULAE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanaka, Shuta J. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Konan University, 8-9-1 Okamoto, Kobe, Hyogo 658-8501 (Japan)

    2016-08-20

    Angular momentum loss by the plasma wind is considered as a universal feature of isolated neutron stars including magnetars. The wind nebulae that are powered by magnetars allow us to compare the wind properties and the spin evolution of magnetars with those of rotation-powered pulsars (RPPs). In this paper, we construct a broadband emission model of magnetar wind nebulae (MWNe). This model is similar to past studies of young pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe) around RPPs, but is modified for the application to MWNe that have far less observational information than the young PWNe. We apply the model to the MWN around the youngest (∼1 kyr) magnetar, 1E 1547.0-5408, which has the largest spin-down power L {sub spin} among all the magnetars. However, the MWN is faint because of the low L {sub spin} of 1E 1547.0-5408 when compared to the young RPPs. Since most parameters are not well constrained by only an X-ray flux upper limit of the MWN, we adopt the model’s parameters from the young PWN Kes 75 around PSR J1846-0258, which is a peculiar RPP showing magnetar-like behaviors. The model predicts that γ -ray flux will be detected in a future TeV γ -ray observation by CTA (Cherenkov Telescope Array). The MWN spectrum does not allow us to test the hypothesis that 1E 1547.0-5408 had a period of milliseconds at its birth because the particles injected during the early phase of evolution suffered from severe adiabatic and synchrotron losses. Furthermore, both observational and theoretical studies of the wind nebulae around magnetars are required to constrain the wind and the spin-down properties of magnetars.

  4. Numerical wind wave model with a dynamic boundary layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. G. Polnikov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A modern version of a numerical wind wave model of the fourth generation is constructed for a case of deep water. The following specific terms of the model source function are used: (a a new analytic parameterization of the nonlinear evolution term proposed recently in Zakharov and Pushkarev (1999; (b a traditional input term added by the routine for an atmospheric boundary layer fitting to a wind wave state according to Makin and Kudryavtsev (1999; (c a dissipative term of the second power in a wind wave spectrum according to Polnikov (1991. The direct fetch testing results showed an adequate description of the main empirical wave evolution effects. Besides, the model gives a correct description of the boundary layer parameters' evolution, depending on a wind wave stage of development. This permits one to give a physical treatment of the dependence mentioned. These performances of the model allow one to use it both for application and for investigation aims in the task of the joint description of wind and wave fields.

  5. Numerical wind wave model with a dynamic boundary layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polnikov, V. G.; Volkov, Y. A.; Pogarskii, F. A.

    A modern version of a numerical wind wave model of the fourth generation is constructed for a case of deep water. The following specific terms of the model source function are used: (a) a new analytic parameterization of the nonlinear evolution term proposed recently in Zakharov and Pushkarev (1999); (b) a traditional input term added by the routine for an atmospheric boundary layer fitting to a wind wave state according to Makin and Kudryavtsev (1999); (c) a dissipative term of the second power in a wind wave spectrum according to Polnikov (1991). The direct fetch testing results showed an adequate description of the main empirical wave evolution effects. Besides, the model gives a correct description of the boundary layer parameters' evolution, depending on a wind wave stage of development. This permits one to give a physical treatment of the dependence mentioned. These performances of the model allow one to use it both for application and for investigation aims in the task of the joint description of wind and wave fields.

  6. Wind Power in Europe. A Simultaneous Innovation-Diffusion Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soederholm, P.; Klaassen, G.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector. We derive a simultaneous model of wind power innovation and diffusion, which combines a rational choice model of technological diffusion and a learning curve model of dynamic cost reductions. These models are estimated using pooled annual time series data for four European countries (Denmark, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom) over the time period 1986-2000. The empirical results indicate that reductions in investment costs have been important determinants of increased diffusion of wind power, and these cost reductions can in turn be explained by learning activities and public R and D support. Feed-in tariffs also play an important role in the innovation and diffusion processes. The higher the feed-in price the higher, ceteris paribus, the rate of diffusion, and we present some preliminary empirical support for the notion that the impact on diffusion of a marginal increase in the feed-in tariff will differ depending on the support system used. High feed-in tariffs, though, also have a negative effect on cost reductions as they induce wind generators to choose high-cost sites and provide fewer incentives for cost cuts. This illustrates the importance of designing an efficient wind energy support system, which not only promotes diffusion but also provides continuous incentives for cost-reducing innovations

  7. Short-Circuit Modeling of a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, E.; Gevorgian, V.

    2011-03-01

    This paper investigates the short-circuit behavior of a WPP for different types of wind turbines. The short-circuit behavior will be presented. Both the simplified models and detailed models are used in the simulations and both symmetrical faults and unsymmetrical faults are discussed.

  8. Conceptual models of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Marshall, D.P.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2013-01-01

    Conceptual models are a vital tool for understanding the processes that maintain the global ocean circulation, both in nature and in complex numerical ocean models. In this chapter we provide a broad overview of our conceptual understanding of the wind-driven circulation, the thermohaline

  9. Comparison of aerodynamic models for Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simao Ferreira, C.J.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Barone, M.; Roscher, B.; Deglaire, P.; Arduin, I.

    2014-01-01

    Multi-megawatt Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs) are experiencing an increased interest for floating offshore applications. However, VAWT development is hindered by the lack of fast, accurate and validated simulation models. This work compares six different numerical models for VAWTS: a multiple

  10. Comparison of aerodynamic models for Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferreira, C. Simão; Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Barone, M.

    2014-01-01

    Multi-megawatt Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs) are experiencing an increased interest for floating offshore applications. However, VAWT development is hindered by the lack of fast, accurate and validated simulation models. This work compares six different numerical models for VAWTS: a multipl...

  11. Response of an ocean general circulation model to wind and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The stretched-coordinate ocean general circulation model has been designed to study the observed variability due to wind and thermodynamic forcings. The model domain extends from 60°N to 60°S and cyclically continuous in the longitudinal direction. The horizontal resolution is 5° × 5° and 9 discrete vertical levels.

  12. Models for simulation of transient events in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, P.; Hansen, A. D.; Bindner, H.

    2002-01-01

    with different tools with each other and with measurements. This present paper limits to describe the models including our reflections on which effects we expect to be essential for obtaining useful simulation results. The models comprise the substation, where the wind farm is connected, the power collection...

  13. Bayes estimation of the general hazard rate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarhan, A.

    1999-01-01

    In reliability theory and life testing models, the life time distributions are often specified by choosing a relevant hazard rate function. Here a general hazard rate function h(t)=a+bt c-1 , where c, a, b are constants greater than zero, is considered. The parameter c is assumed to be known. The Bayes estimators of (a,b) based on the data of type II/item-censored testing without replacement are obtained. A large simulation study using Monte Carlo Method is done to compare the performance of Bayes with regression estimators of (a,b). The criterion for comparison is made based on the Bayes risk associated with the respective estimator. Also, the influence of the number of failed items on the accuracy of the estimators (Bayes and regression) is investigated. Estimations for the parameters (a,b) of the linearly increasing hazard rate model h(t)=a+bt, where a, b are greater than zero, can be obtained as the special case, letting c=2

  14. Comparison of Fuzzy-Based Models in Landslide Hazard Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mijani, N.; Neysani Samani, N.

    2017-09-01

    Landslide is one of the main geomorphic processes which effects on the development of prospect in mountainous areas and causes disastrous accidents. Landslide is an event which has different uncertain criteria such as altitude, slope, aspect, land use, vegetation density, precipitation, distance from the river and distance from the road network. This research aims to compare and evaluate different fuzzy-based models including Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP), Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR. The main contribution of this paper reveals to the comprehensive criteria causing landslide hazard considering their uncertainties and comparison of different fuzzy-based models. The quantify of evaluation process are calculated by Density Ratio (DR) and Quality Sum (QS). The proposed methodology implemented in Sari, one of the city of Iran which has faced multiple landslide accidents in recent years due to the particular environmental conditions. The achieved results of accuracy assessment based on the quantifier strated that Fuzzy-AHP model has higher accuracy compared to other two models in landslide hazard zonation. Accuracy of zoning obtained from Fuzzy-AHP model is respectively 0.92 and 0.45 based on method Precision (P) and QS indicators. Based on obtained landslide hazard maps, Fuzzy-AHP, Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR respectively cover 13, 26 and 35 percent of the study area with a very high risk level. Based on these findings, fuzzy-AHP model has been selected as the most appropriate method of zoning landslide in the city of Sari and the Fuzzy-gamma method with a minor difference is in the second order.

  15. Modeling the wind-fields of accidental releases with an operational regional forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albritton, J.R.; Lee, R.L.; Sugiyama, G.

    1995-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is an operational emergency preparedness and response organization supported primarily by the Departments of Energy and Defense. ARAC can provide real-time assessments of atmospheric releases of radioactive materials at any location in the world. ARAC uses robust three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, extensive geophysical and dose-factor databases, meteorological data-acquisition systems, and an experienced staff. Although it was originally conceived and developed as an emergency response and assessment service for nuclear accidents, the ARAC system has been adapted to also simulate non-radiological hazardous releases. For example, in 1991 ARAC responded to three major events: the oil fires in Kuwait, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and the herbicide spill into the upper Sacramento River in California. ARAC's operational simulation system, includes two three-dimensional finite-difference models: a diagnostic wind-field scheme, and a Lagrangian particle-in-cell transport and dispersion scheme. The meteorological component of ARAC's real-time response system employs models using real-time data from all available stations near the accident site to generate a wind-field for input to the transport and dispersion model. Here we report on simulation studies of past and potential release sites to show that even in the absence of local meteorological observational data, readily available gridded analysis and forecast data and a prognostic model, the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System, applied at an appropriate grid resolution can successfully simulate complex local flows

  16. Detailed signal model of coherent wind measurement lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yuechao; Li, Sining; Lu, Wei

    2016-11-01

    Lidar is short for light detection and ranging, which is a tool to help measuring some useful information of atmosphere. In the recent years, more and more attention was paid to the research of wind measurement by lidar. Because the accurate wind information can be used not only in weather report, but also the safety guarantee of the airplanes. In this paper, a more detailed signal model of wind measurement lidar is proposed. It includes the laser transmitting part which describes the broadening of the spectral, the laser attenuation in the atmosphere, the backscattering signal and the detected signal. A Voigt profile is used to describe the broadening of the transmitting laser spectral, which is the most common situation that is the convolution of different broadening line shapes. The laser attenuation includes scattering and absorption. We use a Rayleigh scattering model and partially-Correlated quadratic-Velocity-Dependent Hard-Collision (pCqSDHC) model to describe the molecule scattering and absorption. When calculate the particles scattering and absorption, the Gaussian particles model is used to describe the shape of particles. Because of the Doppler Effect occurred between the laser and atmosphere, the wind velocity can be calculated by the backscattering signal. Then, a two parameter Weibull distribution is used to describe the wind filed, so that we can use it to do the future work. After all the description, the signal model of coherent wind measurement lidar is decided. And some of the simulation is given by MATLAB. This signal model can describe the system more accurate and more detailed, so that the following work will be easier and more efficient.

  17. Introducing WISDEM:An Integrated System Modeling for Wind Turbines and Plant (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dykes, K.; Graf, P.; Scott, G.; Ning, A.; King, R.; Guo, Y.; Parsons, T.; Damiani, R.; Felker, F.; Veers, P.

    2015-01-01

    The National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better understanding of how to improve system-level performance and achieve system-level cost reductions. This work illustrates a few case studies with WISDEM that focus on the design and analysis of wind turbines and plants at different system levels.

  18. The additive hazards model with high-dimensional regressors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers estimation and prediction in the Aalen additive hazards model in the case where the covariate vector is high-dimensional such as gene expression measurements. Some form of dimension reduction of the covariate space is needed to obtain useful statistical analyses. We study...... model. A standard PLS algorithm can also be constructed, but it turns out that the resulting predictor can only be related to the original covariates via time-dependent coefficients. The methods are applied to a breast cancer data set with gene expression recordings and to the well known primary biliary...

  19. Modeling the Long-Term Market Penetration of Wind in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Short, W.; Blair, N.; Heimiller, D.; Singh, V.

    2003-07-01

    This paper presents an overview of the Wind Deployment Systems Model (WinDS). WinDS is a multiregional, multitime-period, Geographic Information System (GIS), and linear programming model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the United States. WinDS is designed to address the principal market issues related to the penetration of wind energy technologies into the electric sector. These principal market issues include access to and cost of transmission, and the intermittency of wind power. WinDS addresses these issues through a highly discretized regional structure, explicit accounting for the variability in wind output over time, and consideration of ancillary services requirements and costs.

  20. Modelling public risk evaluation of natural hazards: a conceptual approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plattner, Th.

    2005-04-01

    In recent years, the dealing with natural hazards in Switzerland has shifted away from being hazard-oriented towards a risk-based approach. Decreasing societal acceptance of risk, accompanied by increasing marginal costs of protective measures and decreasing financial resources cause an optimization problem. Therefore, the new focus lies on the mitigation of the hazard's risk in accordance with economical, ecological and social considerations. This modern proceeding requires an approach in which not only technological, engineering or scientific aspects of the definition of the hazard or the computation of the risk are considered, but also the public concerns about the acceptance of these risks. These aspects of a modern risk approach enable a comprehensive assessment of the (risk) situation and, thus, sound risk management decisions. In Switzerland, however, the competent authorities suffer from a lack of decision criteria, as they don't know what risk level the public is willing to accept. Consequently, there exists a need for the authorities to know what the society thinks about risks. A formalized model that allows at least a crude simulation of the public risk evaluation could therefore be a useful tool to support effective and efficient risk mitigation measures. This paper presents a conceptual approach of such an evaluation model using perception affecting factors PAF, evaluation criteria EC and several factors without any immediate relation to the risk itself, but to the evaluating person. Finally, the decision about the acceptance Acc of a certain risk i is made by a comparison of the perceived risk Ri,perc with the acceptable risk Ri,acc.

  1. Surface Winds and Dust Biases in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evan, A. T.

    2018-01-01

    An analysis of North African dust from models participating in the Fifth Climate Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggested that, when forced by observed sea surface temperatures, these models were unable to reproduce any aspects of the observed year-to-year variability in dust from North Africa. Consequently, there would be little reason to have confidence in the models' projections of changes in dust over the 21st century. However, no subsequent study has elucidated the root causes of the disagreement between CMIP5 and observed dust. Here I develop an idealized model of dust emission and then use this model to show that, over North Africa, such biases in CMIP5 models are due to errors in the surface wind fields and not due to the representation of dust emission processes. These results also suggest that because the surface wind field over North Africa is highly spatially autocorrelated, intermodel differences in the spatial structure of dust emission have little effect on the relative change in year-to-year dust emission over the continent. I use these results to show that similar biases in North African dust from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) version 2 surface wind field biases but that these wind biases were not present in the first version of MERRA.

  2. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  3. Modeling of the maintenance policy of an offshore wind farm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maddens, L.; Labeau, P.E.

    2004-01-01

    Wind energy has a key position in the market of renewable electricity production means. Offshore wind farms offer additional surfaces to exploit this form of energy, together with more favourable wind conditions. Yet offshore windmills ask for higher investment and maintenance costs. Optimising the latter costs should therefore turn out to be particularly beneficial for this technology. The present paper summarizes the main modelling aspects of the maintenance of a typical offshore wind farm, such as the accessibility of the wind turbines and the impact of weather conditions, the cost of the different transport resources, the number of maintenance teams, a tolerated unavailability of part of the windmills, the opportunity to combine corrective and preventive maintenance actions on one or several windmills. All these features were embedded in a Petri net model of the maintenance policy of the farm, allowing to estimate the maintenance costs entailed by several strategies. Advantages and drawbacks of using Petri nets for the modelling of such a maintenance strategy are finally discussed. (authors)

  4. Model of a synthetic wind speed time series generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, N.B.; Holmstrøm, O.; Bak-Jensen, B.

    2008-01-01

    is described and some statistical issues (seasonal characteristics, autocorrelation functions, average values and distribution functions) are used for verification. The output of the model has been designed as input for sequential Monte Carlo simulation; however, it is expected that it can be used for other...... of the main elements to consider for this purpose is the model of the wind speed that is usually required as input. Wind speed measurements may represent a solution for this problem, but, for techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo simulation, they have to be long enough in order to describe a wide range...

  5. Selection of References in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    a model predictive controller for a wind turbine. One of the important aspects for a tracking control problem is how to setup the optimal reference tracking problem, as it might be relevant to track, e.g., the three concurrent references: optimal pitch angle, optimal rotational speed, and optimal power....... The importance if the individual references differ depending in particular on the wind speed. In this paper we investigate the performance of a reference tracking model predictive controller with two different setups of the used optimal reference signals. The controllers are evaluated using an industrial high...

  6. MODELING WIND TURBINES IN THE GRIDLAB-D SOFTWARE ENVIRONMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuller, J.C.; Schneider, K.P.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the rapid expansion of wind power has resulted in a need to more accurately model the effects of wind penetration on the electricity infrastructure. GridLAB-D is a new simulation environment developed for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the Pacifi c Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in cooperation with academic and industrial partners. GridLAB-D was originally written and designed to help integrate end-use smart grid technologies, and it is currently being expanded to include a number of other technologies, including distributed energy resources (DER). The specifi c goal of this project is to create a preliminary wind turbine generator (WTG) model for integration into GridLAB-D. As wind power penetration increases, models are needed to accurately study the effects of increased penetration; this project is a beginning step at examining these effects within the GridLAB-D environment. Aerodynamic, mechanical and electrical power models were designed to simulate the process by which mechanical power is extracted by a wind turbine and converted into electrical energy. The process was modeled using historic atmospheric data, collected over a period of 30 years as the primary energy input. This input was then combined with preliminary models for synchronous and induction generators. Additionally, basic control methods were implemented, using either constant power factor or constant power modes. The model was then compiled into the GridLAB-D simulation environment, and the power outputs were compared against manufacturers’ data and then a variation of the IEEE 4 node test feeder was used to examine the model’s behavior. Results showed the designs were suffi cient for a prototype model and provided output power similar to the available manufacturers’ data. The prototype model is designed as a template for the creation of new modules, with turbine-specifi c parameters to be added by the user.

  7. Quantifying wind resource assessment and grid integration challenges for Delaware offshore wind power utilizing mesoscale modeling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, Joseph F.

    Offshore wind in the United States continues to be a focused area of research as our society grapples with the Earth's changing climate and our ongoing and increasing demand for electricity. While the first offshore wind project in the U.S. is expected to be operational soon, much still remains to be done to help improve viability of offshore wind in additional locations. This dissertation discusses three studies conducted to improve the understanding of and expectations from developing wind energy in the Delaware Wind Energy Area off the Delaware coast. The first study examines the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to account for variations in wind farm array geometries in an idealized set-up of the model, and determines features of those array geometries that can positively influence the energy production of an offshore farm. The second study investigates the impacts that the misprediction of wind ramp events would have on the interaction of an offshore wind farm with the electricity grid, quantifying some of these impacts and discussing factors which contribute to grid instability. The third study combines the knowledge gained in the first two studies to evaluate potential wind farm array geometries in a regional study of the Delaware Wind Energy Area using WRF along with a selection of case study dates selected to examine the impacts of the synoptic variability of the region throughout the year. These studies demonstrate that careful consideration of the meteorology and climatology of a region when determining the layout of an offshore wind array can improve the power production of the farm, thereby improving wind farm viability. It is shown that using a mesoscale model that incorporates a wind farm parameterization can improve resource assessment by allowing the assessment to evaluate the wind farm's interactions with the weather and climate in the Delaware Wind Energy Area. Furthermore, it is shown that while certain synoptic

  8. A model for the origin of solar wind stream interfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hundhausen, A.J.; Burlaga, L.F.

    1975-01-01

    The basic variations in solar wind properties that have been observed at 'stream interfaces' near 1 AU are explained by a gas dynamic model in which a radially propagating stream, produced by a temperature variation in the solar envelope, steepens nonlinearly while moving through interplanetary space. The region thus identified with the stream interface separates the ambient solar wind from the fresh hot material originally in the stream. However, the interface regions given by the present model are thicker than most stream interfaces observed in the solar wind, a fact suggesting that some additional physical process may be important in determining that thickness. Variations in the density, speed, or Alfven pressure alone appear not to produce streams with such an interface

  9. Comparing different CFD wind turbine modelling approaches with wind tunnel measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalvig, Siri; Manger, Eirik; Hjertager, Bjørn

    2014-12-01

    The performance of a model wind turbine is simulated with three different CFD methods: actuator disk, actuator line and a fully resolved rotor. The simulations are compared with each other and with measurements from a wind tunnel experiment. The actuator disk is the least accurate and most cost-efficient, and the fully resolved rotor is the most accurate and least cost-efficient. The actuator line method is believed to lie in between the two ends of the scale. The fully resolved rotor produces superior wake velocity results compared to the actuator models. On average it also produces better results for the force predictions, although the actuator line method had a slightly better match for the design tip speed. The open source CFD tool box, OpenFOAM, was used for the actuator disk and actuator line calculations, whereas the market leading commercial CFD code, ANSYS/FLUENT, was used for the fully resolved rotor approach.

  10. An Approach to Comprehensive and Sustainable Solar Wind Model Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Boblitt, J. M.; Wiegand, C.

    2017-12-01

    The number of models of the corona and inner heliosphere and of their updates and upgrades grows steadily, as does the number and character of the model inputs. Maintaining up to date validation of these models, in the face of this constant model evolution, is a necessary but very labor intensive activity. In the last year alone, both NASA's LWS program and the CCMC's ongoing support of model forecasting activities at NOAA SWPC have sought model validation reports on the quality of all aspects of the community's coronal and heliospheric models, including both ambient and CME related wind solutions at L1. In this presentation I will give a brief review of the community's previous model validation results of L1 wind representation. I will discuss the semi-automated web based system we are constructing at the CCMC to present comparative visualizations of all interesting aspects of the solutions from competing models.This system is designed to be easily queried to provide the essential comprehensive inputs to repeat andupdate previous validation studies and support extensions to them. I will illustrate this by demonstrating how the system is being used to support the CCMC/LWS Model Assessment Forum teams focused on the ambient and time dependent corona and solar wind, including CME arrival time and IMF Bz.I will also discuss plans to extend the system to include results from the Forum teams addressing SEP model validation.

  11. Sustainable business models for wind and solar energy in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nichifor Maria Alexandra

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy has become a crucial element for the business environment as the need for new energy resources and the degree of climate change are increasing. As developed economies strive towards greater progress, sustainable business models are of the essence in order to maintain a balance between the triple bottom line: people, planet and profit. In recent years, European Union countries have installed important capacities of renewable energy, especially wind and solar energy to achieve this purpose. The objective of this article is to make a comparative study between the current sustainable business models implemented in companies that are active in the wind and solar energy sector in Romania. Both sectors underwent tremendous changes in the last two years due to changing support schemes which have had a significant influence on the mechanism of the renewable energy market, as well as on its development. Using the classical Delphi method, based on questionnaires and interviews with experts in the fields of wind and solar energy, this paper offers an overview of the sustainable business models of wind and solar energy companies, both sectors opting for the alternative of selling electricity to trading companies as a main source of revenue until 2013 and as the main future trend until 2020. Furthermore, the participating wind energy companies noted a pessimistic outlook of future investments due to legal instability that made them to reduce their projects in comparison to PV investments, which are expected to continue. The subject of the article is of interest to scientific literature because sustainable business models in wind and photovoltaic energy have been scarcely researched in previous articles and are essential in understanding the activity of the companies in these two fields of renewable energy.

  12. Sensitivity analysis of nacelle lidar free stream wind speed measurements to wind-induction reconstruction model and lidar range configuration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Elin; Borraccino, Antoine; Meyer Forsting, Alexander Raul

    configurations. The wind speeds were reconstructed using both a onedimensional and two-dimensional induction model to test the sensitivity towards the wind-induction model. In all cases, the sensitivity of the reconstructed wind speed was determined from the wind speed error and root mean square error (RMSE...... based on the NKE sensitivity analysis results. Based on these results, it is recommended to configure nacelle lidars to measure at approximately 3-5 ranges. The minimum distance should be configured to roughly 0.5 rotor diameters (Drot) while it is recommended that the maximum range lay within 1-1.5Drot...

  13. Report 6: Guidance document. Man-made hazards and Accidental Aircraft Crash hazards modelling and implementation in extended PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahia, S.; Brinkman, H.; Bareith, A.; Siklossy, T.; Vinot, T.; Mateescu, T.; Espargilliere, J.; Burgazzi, L.; Ivanov, I.; Bogdanov, D.; Groudev, P.; Ostapchuk, S.; Zhabin, O.; Stojka, T.; Alzbutas, R.; Kumar, M.; Nitoi, M.; Farcasiu, M.; Borysiewicz, M.; Kowal, K.; Potempski, S.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this report is to provide guidance on practices to model man-made hazards (mainly external fires and explosions) and accidental aircraft crash hazards and implement them in extended Level 1 PSA. This report is a joint deliverable of work package 21 (WP21) and work package 22 (WP22). The general objective of WP21 is to provide guidance on all of the individual hazards selected at the first ASAMPSA-E End Users Workshop (May 2014, Uppsala, Sweden). The objective of WP22 is to provide the solutions for purposes of different parts of man-made hazards Level 1 PSA fulfilment. This guidance is focusing on man-made hazards, namely: external fires and explosions, and accidental aircraft crash hazards. Guidance developed refers to existing guidance whenever possible. The initial part of guidance (WP21 part) reflects current practices to assess the frequencies for each type of hazards or combination of hazards (including correlated hazards) as initiating event for PSAs. The sources and quality of hazard data, the elements of hazard assessment methodologies and relevant examples are discussed. Classification and criteria to properly assess hazard combinations as well as examples and methods for assessment of these combinations are included in this guidance. In appendixes additional material is presented with the examples of practical approaches to aircraft crash and man-made hazard. The following issues are addressed: 1) Hazard assessment methodologies, including issues related to hazard combinations. 2) Modelling equipment of safety related SSC, 3) HRA, 4) Emergency response, 5) Multi-unit issues. Recommendations and also limitations, gaps identified in the existing methodologies and a list of open issues are included. At all stages of this guidance and especially from an industrial end-user perspective, one must keep in mind that the development of man-made hazards probabilistic analysis must be conditioned to the ability to ultimately obtain a representative risk

  14. Model-based control of a ballast-stabilized floating wind turbine exposed to wind and waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christiansen, Soeren

    2013-01-15

    The wind turbine is a commercial product which is competing against other sources of energy, such as coal and gas. This competition drives a constant development to reduce costs and improve efficiency in order to reduce the total cost of the energy. The latest offshore development is the floating wind turbine, for water depths beyond 50 meters where winds are stronger and less turbulent. A floating wind turbine is subject to not only aerodynamics and wind induced loads, but also to hydrodynamics and wave induced loads. In contrast to a bottom fixed wind turbine, the floating structure, the hydrodynamics and the loads change the dynamic behavior of a floating wind turbine. Consequently, conventional wind turbine control cause instabilities on floating wind turbines. This work addresses the control of a floating spar buoy wind turbine, and focuses on the impact of the additional platform dynamics. A time varying control model is presented based on the wind speed and wave frequency. Estimates of the wind speed and wave frequency are used as scheduling variables in a gain scheduled linear quadratic controller to improve the electrical power production while reducing fatigue. To address the problem of negative damped fore-aft tower motion, additional control loops are suggested which stabilize the response of the onshore controller and reduce the impact of the wave induced loads. This research is then extended to model predictive control, to further address wave disturbances. In the context of control engineering, the dynamics and disturbances of a floating wind turbine have been identified and modeled. The objectives of maximizing the production of electrical power and minimizing fatigue have been reached by using advanced methods of estimation and control. (Author)

  15. Numerical simulation of the aerodynamic field in complex terrain wind farm based on actuator disk model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Chang; Li, Chen Qi; Han, Xing Xing

    2015-01-01

    Study on the aerodynamic field in complex terrain is significant to wind farm micro-sitting and wind power prediction. This paper modeled the wind turbine through an actuator disk model, and solved the aerodynamic field by CFD to study the influence of meshing, boundary conditions and turbulence...... model on the calculation results. Comparison with the measured data of a wind farm was applied to find an appropriate method for simulating the aerodynamic field in the complex terrain wind farm. Related research can provide reference for wind farm micro-siting and wind power prediction....

  16. Modelling of a CFD Microscale Model and Its Application in Wind Energy Resource Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Jie-shun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of a wind farm near the wind turbines has a significant effect on the safety as well as economy of wind power generation. To assess the wind resource distribution within a complex terrain, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD based wind farm forecast microscale model is developed. The model uses the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS model to characterize the turbulence. By using the results of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF mesoscale weather forecast model as the input of the CFD model, a coupled model of CFD-WRF is established. A special method is used for the treatment of the information interchange on the lateral boundary between two models. This established coupled model is applied in predicting the wind farm near a wind turbine in Hong Gang-zi, Jilin, China. The results from this simulation are compared to real measured data. On this basis, the accuracy and efficiency of turbulence characterization schemes are discussed. It indicates that this coupling system is easy to implement and can make these two separate models work in parallel. The CFD model coupled with WRF has the advantage of high accuracy and fast speed, which makes it valid for the wind power generation.

  17. Modelling of hydro and wind power in the regulation market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiviluoma, J.; Holttinen, H.; Meibom, P.

    2006-01-01

    The amount of required regulation capacity in the power system is affected by the wind power prediction errors. A model has been developed which can evaluate the monetary effects of prediction errors. The model can be used to evaluate (1) the regulation costs of wind power, (2) regulation market prices including effects related to the participation of power producers in the regulating power market, (3) value of accurate wind forecasts and (4) the effect of decreasing the length of the spot market clearance. This article discusses the problems related to developing a realistic model of the regulating power market including the interaction between the spot market and the regulating power market. There are several issues that make things complicated. (1) How to calculate the minimum amount of needed secondary (minute) reserves. Traditionally the Nordic TSOs have used an N-1 criteria in each country to determine the required amounts of positive secondary reserve, but as installed wind power capacity grows, it will become relevant to include the wind power prediction errors in the estimation of secondary reserves. (2) Consumption forecast errors and plant outages also contribute to activation of regulating power and should have stochastic input series besides wind power. (3) Risk premiums and transaction costs in the regulating power market are difficult to estimate as well as the effects of the possible use of market power. This is especially true in the Nordic system with the high share of hydro power, since the water value and hydrological limitations make things more complex than in a thermal system. (4) The available regulation capacity is not necessarily equal to the truly available capacity. All producers don't participate in the regulation market although in principle they could. (orig.)

  18. Modelling the pultrusion process of off shore wind turbine blades

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baran, Ismet

    This thesis is devoted to the numerical modelling of the pultrusion process for industrial products such as wind turbine blades and structural profiles. The main focus is on the thermo-chemical and mechanical analyses of the process in which the process induced tresses and shape distortions together

  19. Modeling of uncertainties for wind turbine blade design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Toft, Henrik Stensgaard

    2014-01-01

    Wind turbine blades are designed by a combination of tests and numerical calculations using finite element models of the blade. The blades are typically composite structures with laminates of glass-fiber and/or carbon-fibers glued together by a matrix material. This paper presents a framework...

  20. Stochastic Models for Strength of Wind Turbine Blades using Tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    The structural cost of wind turbine blades is dependent on the values of the partial safety factors which reflect the uncertainties in the design values, including statistical uncertainty from a limited number of tests. This paper presents a probabilistic model for ultimate and fatigue strength...

  1. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  2. Code Shift: Grid Specifications and Dynamic Wind Turbine Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ackermann, Thomas; Ellis, Abraham; Fortmann, Jens

    2013-01-01

    Grid codes (GCs) and dynamic wind turbine (WT) models are key tools to allow increasing renewable energy penetration without challenging security of supply. In this article, the state of the art and the further development of both tools are discussed, focusing on the European and North American e...

  3. Wind Tunnel Experiments with Active Control of Bridge Section Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henriette I.; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    This paper describes results of wind tunnel experiments with a bridge section model where movable flaps are integrated in the bridge girder so each flap is the streamlined part of the edge of the girder. This active control flap system is patented by COWIconsult and may be used to increase...

  4. PIV in a model wind turbine rotor wake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Knud Erik; Naumov, Igor; Karbadin, Ivan

    2013-01-01

    Stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements of the flow in the wake of scale model of a horizontal axis wind turbine is presented Near the rotor, measurements are made in vertical planes intersecting the rotor axis These planes capture flow effect from the tip and root vortices...

  5. A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.E.

    1997-03-01

    A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

  6. Polymer Nanocomposites for Wind Energy Applications: Perspectives and Computational Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mishnaevsky, Leon; Zhou, H.W.; Peng, R.D.

    2013-01-01

    Strength and reliability of wind blades produced from polymer composites are the important preconditions for the successful development of wind energy. One of the ways to increase the reliability and lifetime of polymer matrix composites is the nanoengineering of matrix or fiber/matrix interfaces...... in these composites. The potential and results of nanoclay reinforcements for the improvement of the mechanical properties of polymer composites are investigated using continuum mechanics and micromechanics methods and effective phase model. It is demonstrated that nanoreinforcement allows to increase the stiffness...

  7. Fourier Simulation of a Non-Isotropic Wind Field Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mann, J.; Krenk, S.

    -spectra. In this paper a method is described which builds on a recently developed model of a spectral tensor for atmospheric surface layer turbulence at high wind speeds. Although the tensor does not in principle contain more information than the cross-spectra, it leads to a more natural and direct representation...... the vertical velocity fluctuations give rise to loads. There may even be structures where combinations of velocity fluctuations in different direction are of importance. Most methods that have been developed to simulate the turbulent wind field are based on one-point (cross-)spectra and two-point cross...

  8. Importance of Dynamic Inflow Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Knudsen, Torben; Overgaard, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The efficiency of including dynamic inflow in the model based design of wind turbine controller has been discussed for many years in the wind energy community with out getting to a safe conclusion. This paper delivers a good argument in favor of including dynamic inflow. The main contributions...... pronounces. For this the well accepted NREL 5MW reference turbine simulated with FAST is used. The main result is a reduction in tower fatigue load at 22% while power error, rotor speed error, generator torque and pitch rate is improved from 2 to 33%....

  9. 3D modeling of dual wind-up extensional rheometers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yu, Kaijia; Román Marín, José Manuel; Rasmussen, Henrik K.

    2010-01-01

    Fully three-dimensional numerical simulations of a dual wind-up drum rheometer of the Sentmanat Extensional Rheometer (SER; Sentmanat, 2004 [1]) or the Extensional Viscosity Fixture (EVF; Garritano and Berting, 2006 [2]) type have been performed. In the SER and EVF a strip of rectangular shape...... is attached onto two drums, followed by a rotation of both drums in opposite direction. The numerical modeling is based on integral constitutive equations of the K-BKZ type. Generally, to ensure a proper uni-axial extensional deformation in dual wind-up drum rheometers the simulations show that a very small...

  10. Wake Development of a Model Vertical Axis Wind Turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadum, Hawwa; Friedman, Sasha; Camp, Elizabeth; Cal, Rau'l.

    2015-11-01

    At the Portland State University wind tunnel facility, an experiment is conducted to observe the downstream development of the wake past a model vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT). The flow domain is composed of streamwise-spanwise planes at mid-height of the VAWT rotor and data is obtained via particle image velocimetry (PIV). The flow field is assessed by analyzing contours of mean velocities and the full Reynolds stress tensor. Furthermore, profiles of the aforementioned quantities and flow parameters are discussed in the context of downstream evolution/flow development.

  11. Stochastic models for strength of wind turbine blades using tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, H.S.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    The structural cost of wind turbine blades is dependent on the values of the partial safety factors which reflect the uncertainties in the design values, including statistical uncertainty from a limited number of tests. This paper presents a probabilistic model for ultimate and fatigue strength...... of wind turbine blades especially considering the influence of prior knowledge and test results and how partial safety factors can be updated when additional full-scale tests are performed. This updating is performed by adopting a probabilistic design basis based on Bayesian statistical methods....

  12. Wind Farm parametrization in the mesoscale model WRF

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2012-01-01

    , but are parametrized as another sub-grid scale process. In order to appropriately capture the wind farm wake recovery and its direction, two properties are important, among others, the total energy extracted by the wind farm and its velocity deficit distribution. In the considered parametrization the individual...... the extracted force is proportional to the turbine area interfacing a grid cell. The sub-grid scale wake expansion is achieved by adding turbulence kinetic energy (proportional to the extracted power) to the flow. The validity of both wind farm parametrizations has been verified against observational data. We...... turbines produce a thrust dependent on the background velocity. For the sub-grid scale velocity deficit, the entrainment from the free atmospheric flow into the wake region, which is responsible for the expansion, is taken into account. Furthermore, since the model horizontal distance is several times...

  13. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, E.A., E-mail: elizabeth.masden@uhi.ac.uk [Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College-UHI, University of the Highlands and Islands, Ormlie Road, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7EE (United Kingdom); Cook, A.S.C.P. [British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-15

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  14. Understanding Dynamic Model Validation of a Wind Turbine Generator and a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard; Zhang, Ying Chen; Gevorgian, Vahan; Kosterev, Dmitry

    2016-09-01

    Regional reliability organizations require power plants to validate the dynamic models that represent them to ensure that power systems studies are performed to the best representation of the components installed. In the process of validating a wind power plant (WPP), one must be cognizant of the parameter settings of the wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the operational settings of the WPP. Validating the dynamic model of a WPP is required to be performed periodically. This is because the control parameters of the WTGs and the other supporting components within a WPP may be modified to comply with new grid codes or upgrades to the WTG controller with new capabilities developed by the turbine manufacturers or requested by the plant owners or operators. The diversity within a WPP affects the way we represent it in a model. Diversity within a WPP may be found in the way the WTGs are controlled, the wind resource, the layout of the WPP (electrical diversity), and the type of WTGs used. Each group of WTGs constitutes a significant portion of the output power of the WPP, and their unique and salient behaviors should be represented individually. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the process of dynamic model validations of WTGs and WPPs, the available data recorded that must be screened before it is used for the dynamic validations, and the assumptions made in the dynamic models of the WTG and WPP that must be understood. Without understanding the correct process, the validations may lead to the wrong representations of the WTG and WPP modeled.

  15. A Generalized Equatorial Model for the Accelerating Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasnim, S.; Cairns, Iver H.; Wheatland, M. S.

    2018-02-01

    A new theoretical model for the solar wind is developed that includes the wind's acceleration, conservation of angular momentum, deviations from corotation, and nonradial velocity and magnetic field components from an inner boundary (corresponding to the onset of the solar wind) to beyond 1 AU. The model uses a solution of the time-steady isothermal equation of motion to describe the acceleration and analytically predicts the Alfvénic critical radius. We fit the model to near-Earth observations of the Wind spacecraft during the solar rotation period of 1-27 August 2010. The resulting data-driven model demonstrates the existence of noncorotating, nonradial flows and fields from the inner boundary (r = rs) outward and predicts the magnetic field B = (Br,Bϕ), velocity v = (vr,vϕ), and density n(r,ϕ,t), which vary with heliocentric distance r, heliolatitude ϕ, and time t in a Sun-centered standard inertial plane. The description applies formally only in the equatorial plane. In a frame corotating with the Sun, the transformed velocity v' and a field B' are not parallel, resulting in an electric field with a component Ez' along the z axis. The resulting E'×B'=E'×B drift lies in the equatorial plane, while the ∇B and curvature drifts are out of the plane. Together these may lead to enhanced scattering/heating of sufficiently energetic particles. The model predicts that deviations δvϕ from corotation at the inner boundary are common, with δvϕ(rs,ϕs,ts) comparable to the transverse velocities due to granulation and supergranulation motions. Abrupt changes in δvϕ(rs,ϕs,ts) are interpreted in terms of converging and diverging flows at the cell boundaries and centers, respectively. Large-scale variations in the predicted angular momentum demonstrate that the solar wind can drive vorticity and turbulence from near the Sun to 1 AU and beyond.

  16. Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgiadou, Paraskevi S.; Papazoglou, Ioannis A.; Kiranoudis, Chris T.; Markatos, Nikolaos C.

    2007-01-01

    A model providing the temporal and spatial distribution of the population under evacuation around a major hazard facility is developed. A discrete state stochastic Markov process simulates the movement of the evacuees. The area around the hazardous facility is divided into nodes connected among themselves with links representing the road system of the area. Transition from node-to-node is simulated as a random process where the probability of transition depends on the dynamically changed states of the destination and origin nodes and on the link between them. Solution of the Markov process provides the expected distribution of the evacuees in the nodes of the area as a function of time. A Monte Carlo solution of the model provides in addition a sample of actual trajectories of the evacuees. This information coupled with an accident analysis which provides the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme phenomenon following an accident, determines a sample of the actual doses received by the evacuees. Both the average dose and the actual distribution of doses are then used as measures in evaluating alternative emergency response strategies. It is shown that in some cases the estimation of the health consequences by the average dose might be either too conservative or too non-conservative relative to the one corresponding to the distribution of the received dose and hence not a suitable measure to evaluate alternative evacuation strategies

  17. Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Calkin; Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex...

  18. Mapping Winds over Martian Sand Dunes from Ripples and Digital Terrain Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, M. B.; Zimbelman, J. R.

    2015-05-01

    Sand dunes preserve wind flow patterns in their ripple formations. DTMs can be used with wind modeling software to simulate wind speed and direction over these dunes. Results can be compared and together offer a more complete picture of recent wind.

  19. Aspects of Using CFD for Wind Comfort Modeling Around Tall Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Andersen, Lars

    2008-01-01

    The Light*House complex is investigated for uncomfortable wind climate and dangerous winds at pedestrian level. A CFD model is used for simulating the wind effect for 12 different directions and correlated to the wind statistics of a nearby meteorological station. Comparing to practical standards...

  20. Examination of the wind speed limit function in the Rothermel surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews; Miguel G. Cruz; Richard C. Rothermel

    2013-01-01

    The Rothermel surface fire spread model includes a wind speed limit, above which predicted rate of spread is constant. Complete derivation of the wind limit as a function of reaction intensity is given, along with an alternate result based on a changed assumption. Evidence indicates that both the original and the revised wind limits are too restrictive. Wind limit is...

  1. Distributed Model Predictive Control for Active Power Control of Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the active power control of a wind farm using the Distributed Model Predictive Controller (D- MPC) via dual decomposition. Different from the conventional centralized wind farm control, multiple objectives such as power reference tracking performance and wind turbine load can......-scale wind farm control....

  2. How Many Model Evaluations Are Required To Predict The AEP Of A Wind Power Plant?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Natarajan, Anand

    2015-01-01

    (AEP) predictions expensive. The objective of the present paper is to minimize the number of model evaluations required to capture the wind power plant's AEP using stationary wind farm flow models. Polynomial chaos techniques are proposed based on arbitrary Weibull distributed wind speed and Von Misses......Wind farm flow models have advanced considerably with the use of large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations. The main limitation of these techniques is their high computational time requirements; which makes their use for wind farm annual energy production...... distributed wind direction. The correlation between wind direction and wind speed are captured by defining Weibull-parameters as functions of wind direction. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these methods the expectation and variance of the wind farm power distributions are compared against...

  3. Sting Dynamics of Wind Tunnel Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-05-01

    Titanium Alloys . *N1ckle-Base Superalloys *Steel Alloys * Cobalt -Base Superalloys *Molybdenum Alloys *Tungsten Sintered Tungsten-Titanium Carbide Alloys E... Carbide -Steel Sting... • 0 • • • • • • • • . . . 11 13 14 19 6. Sting Coordinate Systems a. Planar Deflection Geometry of the Sting-Model Concentrated...36 b. Cl’p::; 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75 deg . . . . . . 37 10. Motion History for ATT Model and Carbide -Steel Sting, Condition No

  4. Effect of wind turbine generator model and siting on wind power changes out of large WECS arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleuter, R. A.; Park, G. L.; Lotfalian, M.; Dorsey, J.; Shayanfar, H.

    1981-01-01

    Methods of reducing the WECS generation change through selection of the wind turbine model for each site, selection of an appropriate siting configuration, and wind array controls are discussed. An analysis of wind generation change from an echelon and a farm for passage of a thunderstorm is presented. Reduction of the wind generation change over ten minutes is shown to reduce the increase in spinning reserve, unloadable generation and load following requirements on unit commitment when significant WECS generation is present and the farm penetration constraint is satisfied. Controls on the blade pitch angle of all wind turbines in an array or a battery control are shown to reduce both the wind generation change out of an array and the effective farm penetration in anticipation of a storm so that the farm penetration constraint may be satisfied.

  5. Changes in Surface Wind Speed over North America from CMIP5 Model Projections and Implications for Wind Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujay Kulkarni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The centennial trends in the surface wind speed over North America are deduced from global climate model simulations in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5 archive. Using the 21st century simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, 5–10 percent increases per century in the 10 m wind speed are found over Central and East-Central United States, the Californian Coast, and the South and East Coasts of the USA in winter. In summer, climate models projected decreases in the wind speed ranging from 5 to 10 percent per century over the same coastal regions. These projected changes in the surface wind speed are moderate and imply that the current estimate of wind power potential for North America based on present-day climatology will not be significantly changed by the greenhouse gas forcing in the coming decades.

  6. Key aspects of stratospheric tracer modeling using assimilated winds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bregman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study describes key aspects of global chemistry-transport models and their impact on stratospheric tracer transport. We concentrate on global models that use assimilated winds from numerical weather predictions, but the results also apply to tracer transport in general circulation models. We examined grid resolution, numerical diffusion, air parcel dispersion, the wind or mass flux update frequency, and time interpolation. The evaluation is performed with assimilated meteorology from the "operational analyses or operational data" (OD from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. We also show the effect of the mass flux update frequency using the ECMWF 40-year re-analyses (ERA40. We applied the three-dimensional chemistry-transport Tracer Model version 5 (TM5 and a trajectory model and performed several diagnoses focusing on different transport regimes. Covering different time and spatial scales, we examined (1 polar vortex dynamics during the Arctic winter, (2 the large-scale stratospheric meridional circulation, and (3 air parcel dispersion in the tropical lower stratosphere. Tracer distributions inside the Arctic polar vortex show considerably worse agreement with observations when the model grid resolution in the polar region is reduced to avoid numerical instability. The results are sensitive to the diffusivity of the advection. Nevertheless, the use of a computational cheaper but diffusive advection scheme is feasible for tracer transport when the horizontal grid resolution is equal or smaller than 1 degree. The use of time interpolated winds improves the tracer distributions, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere. Considerable improvement is found both in the large-scale tracer distribution and in the polar regions when the update frequency of the assimilated winds is increased from 6 to 3 h. It considerably reduces the vertical dispersion of air parcels in the tropical lower stratosphere. Strong

  7. Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kavasseri, Rajesh G.; Seetharaman, Krithika

    2009-01-01

    With the integration of wind energy into electricity grids, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate wind speed/power forecasts. Accurate wind speed forecasts are necessary to schedule dispatchable generation and tariffs in the day-ahead electricity market. This paper examines the use of fractional-ARIMA or f-ARIMA models to model, and forecast wind speeds on the day-ahead (24 h) and two-day-ahead (48 h) horizons. The models are applied to wind speed records obtained from four potential wind generation sites in North Dakota. The forecasted wind speeds are used in conjunction with the power curve of an operational (NEG MICON, 750 kW) turbine to obtain corresponding forecasts of wind power production. The forecast errors in wind speed/power are analyzed and compared with the persistence model. Results indicate that significant improvements in forecasting accuracy are obtained with the proposed models compared to the persistence method. (author)

  8. A multimodal location and routing model for hazardous materials transportation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuanchang; Lu, Wei; Wang, Wen; Quadrifoglio, Luca

    2012-08-15

    The recent US Commodity Flow Survey data suggest that transporting hazardous materials (HAZMAT) often involves multiple modes, especially for long-distance transportation. However, not much research has been conducted on HAZMAT location and routing on a multimodal transportation network. Most existing HAZMAT location and routing studies focus exclusively on single mode (either highways or railways). Motivated by the lack of research on multimodal HAZMAT location and routing and the fact that there is an increasing demand for it, this research proposes a multimodal HAZMAT model that simultaneously optimizes the locations of transfer yards and transportation routes. The developed model is applied to two case studies of different network sizes to demonstrate its applicability. The results are analyzed and suggestions for future research are provided. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Models for estimating the radiation hazards of uranium mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wise, K.N.

    1990-01-01

    Hazards to the health of workers in uranium mines derive from the decay products of radon and from uranium and its descendants. Radon daughters in mine atmospheres are either attached to aerosols or exist as free atoms and their physical state determines in which part of the lung the daughters deposit. The factors which influence the proportions of radon daughters attached to aerosols, their deposition in the lung and the dose received by the cells in lung tissue are discussed. The estimation of dose to tissue from inhalation of ingestion or uranium and daughters is based on a different set of models which have been applied in recent ICRP reports. The models used to describe the deposition of particulates, their movement in the gut and their uptake by organs, which form the basis for future limits on the concentration of uranium and daughters in air or on their intake with food, are outlined. 34 refs., 12 tabs., 9 figs

  10. Actuator Line Modeling of Wind Turbine Wakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Niels

    2009-01-01

    with the 3D Navier Stokes solver EllipSys3D and a LES turbulence model. Simple models, based on applying body forces in the computational domain, are developed for imposing sheared and turbulent infow and their validity is discussed. A few computations on stand alone turbines are compared to measurements...... inflow shows that besides an expected vertical skewed wake the wake also becomes increasingly asymmetric in the horizontal direction as it is convected downstream. The latter phenomena, which is also often observed in measurements, is argued to be caused by the rotation of the wake. A detailed study...

  11. A simple GMM estimator for the semi-parametric mixed proportional hazard model

    OpenAIRE

    Bijwaard, G.E.; Ridder, G.; Woutersen, T.

    2012-01-01

    Ridder and Woutersen (Ridder, G., and T. Woutersen. 2003. “The Singularity of the Efficiency Bound of the Mixed Proportional Hazard Model.” Econometrica 71: 1579–1589) have shown that under a weak condition on the baseline hazard, there exist root-N consistent estimators of the parameters in a semiparametric Mixed Proportional Hazard model with a parametric baseline hazard and unspecified distribution of the unobserved heterogeneity. We extend the linear rank estimator (LRE) of Tsiatis (Tsiat...

  12. The k-ε-fP model applied to wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laan, van der, Paul Maarten; Sørensen, Niels N.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan

    2015-01-01

    The recently developed k-ε-fP eddy-viscosity model is applied to one on-shore and two off-shore wind farms. The results are compared with power measurements and results of the standard k-ε eddy-viscosity model. In addition, the wind direction uncertainty of the measurements is used to correct...... by the turbulence models becomes smaller for wind turbines that are located further downstream. Moreover, the difference between the capability of the turbulence models to estimate the wind farm efficiency reduces with increasing wind farm size and wind turbine spacing. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  13. MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF FLOW PARAMETERS FOR SINGLE WIND TURBINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is known that on the territory of the Russian Federation the construction of several large wind farms is planned. The tasks connected with design and efficiency evaluation of wind farm work are in demand today. One of the possible directions in design is connected with mathematical modeling. The method of large eddy simulation developed within the direction of computational hydrodynamics allows to reproduce unsteady structure of the flow in details and to determine various integrated values. The calculation of work for single wind turbine installation by means of large eddy simulation and Actuator Line Method along the turbine blade is given in this work. For problem definition the numerical method in the form of a box was considered and the adapted unstructured grid was used.The mathematical model included the main equations of continuity and momentum equations for incompressible fluid. The large-scale vortex structures were calculated by means of integration of the filtered equations. The calculation was carried out with Smagorinsky model for determination of subgrid scale turbulent viscosity. The geometrical parametersof wind turbine were set proceeding from open sources in the Internet.All physical values were defined at center of computational cell. The approximation of items in equations was ex- ecuted with the second order of accuracy for time and space. The equations for coupling velocity and pressure were solved by means of iterative algorithm PIMPLE. The total quantity of the calculated physical values on each time step was equal to 18. So, the resources of a high performance cluster were required.As a result of flow calculation in wake for the three-bladed turbine average and instantaneous values of velocity, pressure, subgrid kinetic energy and turbulent viscosity, components of subgrid stress tensor were worked out. The re- ceived results matched the known results of experiments and numerical simulation, testify the opportunity

  14. Study of wind turbine wake modeling based on a modified actuator disk model and extended k-ε turbulence model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Chang; Han, Xingxing; Wang, Xin

    2015-01-01

    This paper presented an improved computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for simulating a horizontal-axis wind turbine wake. The model used the actuator disk model to simplify the wind turbine effect on the aerodynamic field by adding an extra momentum source and an improved term to correct...... the underestimation issue of the wind speed deficit when applying the STD k-ε model. In addition, the model also introduced a radial distribution function to assess the non-uniform load on the actuator disk and a coefficient C4ε of the turbulent source. To validate the model, the wind turbines of Nibe `B' and Dawin...

  15. The Effect of Wind Forcing on Modeling Coastal Circulation at a Marine Renewable Test Site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Ren

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The hydrodynamic circulation in estuaries is primarily driven by tides, river inflows and surface winds. While tidal and river data can be quite easily obtained for input to hydrodynamic models, sourcing accurate surface wind data is problematic. Inaccurate wind data can lead to inaccuracies in the surface currents computed by three-dimensional hydrodynamic models. In this research, a high-resolution wind model was coupled with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary on the west coast of Ireland, to investigate the effect of wind forcing on model accuracy. Two wind-forcing conditions were investigated: (1 using wind data measured onshore on the NUI Galway campus (NUIG and (2 using offshore wind data provided by a high resolution wind model (HR. A scenario with no wind forcing (NW was also assessed. The onshore wind data varied with time but the speed and direction were applied across the full model domain. The modeled offshore wind fields varied with both time and space. The effect of wind forcing on modeled hydrodynamics was assessed via comparison of modeled surface currents with surface current measurements obtained from a High-Frequency (HF radar Coastal Ocean Dynamics Applications Radar (CODAR observation system. Results indicated that winds were most significant in simulating the north-south surface velocity component. The model using high resolution temporally- and spatially-varying wind data achieved better agreement with the CODAR surface currents than the model using the onshore wind measurements and the model without any wind forcing.

  16. VHub - Cyberinfrastructure for volcano eruption and hazards modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, G. A.; Jones, M. D.; Bursik, M. I.; Calder, E. S.; Gallo, S. M.; Connor, C.; Carn, S. A.; Rose, W. I.; Moore-Russo, D. A.; Renschler, C. S.; Pitman, B.; Sheridan, M. F.

    2009-12-01

    Volcanic risk is increasing as populations grow in active volcanic regions, and as national economies become increasingly intertwined. In addition to their significance to risk, volcanic eruption processes form a class of multiphase fluid dynamics with rich physics on many length and time scales. Risk significance, physics complexity, and the coupling of models to complex dynamic spatial datasets all demand the development of advanced computational techniques and interdisciplinary approaches to understand and forecast eruption dynamics. Innovative cyberinfrastructure is needed to enable global collaboration and novel scientific creativity, while simultaneously enabling computational thinking in real-world risk mitigation decisions - an environment where quality control, documentation, and traceability are key factors. Supported by NSF, we are developing a virtual organization, referred to as VHub, to address this need. Overarching goals of the VHub project are: Dissemination. Make advanced modeling and simulation capabilities and key data sets readily available to researchers, students, and practitioners around the world. Collaboration. Provide a mechanism for participants not only to be users but also co-developers of modeling capabilities, and contributors of experimental and observational data sets for use in modeling and simulation, in a collaborative environment that reaches far beyond local work groups. Comparison. Facilitate comparison between different models in order to provide the practitioners with guidance for choosing the "right" model, depending upon the intended use, and provide a platform for multi-model analysis of specific problems and incorporation into probabilistic assessments. Application. Greatly accelerate access and application of a wide range of modeling tools and related data sets to agencies around the world that are charged with hazard planning, mitigation, and response. Education. Provide resources that will promote the training of the

  17. Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macneice, P. J.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Taktakishvili, A.

    2009-01-01

    Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.

  18. Wind field and trajectory models for tornado-propelled objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    1978-01-01

    This report contains the results of the second phase of a research program which has as its objective the development of a mathematical model to predict the trajectory of tornado-borne objects postulated to be in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. An improved tornado wind field model satisfies the no-slip ground boundary condition of fluid mechanics and includes the functional dependence of eddy viscosity with altitude. Sub-scale wind tunnel data are obtained for all of the missiles currently specified for nuclear plant design. Confirmatory full-scale data are obtained for a 12-inch pipe and automobile. The original six-degree-of-freedom trajectory model is modified to include the improved wind field and increased capability as to body shapes and inertial characteristics that can be handled. The improved trajectory model is used to calculate maximum credible speeds, which for all of the heavy missiles are considerably less than those currently specified for design. Equivalent coefficients for use in three-degree-of-freedom models are developed and the sensitivity of range and speed to various trajectory parameters for the 12-inch diameter pipe is examined

  19. Repetitive model predictive approach to individual pitch control of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Stoustrup, Jakob; Odgaard, Peter Fogh

    2011-01-01

    Wind turbines are inherently exposed to nonuniform wind fields with of wind shear, tower shadow, and possible wake contributions. Asymmetrical aerodynamic rotor loads are a consequence of such periodic, repetitive wind disturbances experienced by the blades. A controller may estimate and use this....... A simulation comparison betweeen the proposed controller and an industry-standard PID controller shows better mitigation of drive-train, blade and tower loads.......Wind turbines are inherently exposed to nonuniform wind fields with of wind shear, tower shadow, and possible wake contributions. Asymmetrical aerodynamic rotor loads are a consequence of such periodic, repetitive wind disturbances experienced by the blades. A controller may estimate and use...... this peculiar disturbance pattern to better attenuate loads and regulate power by controlling the blade pitch angles individually. A novel model predictive (MPC) approach for individual pitch control of wind turbines is proposed in this paper. A repetitive wind disturbance model is incorporated into the MPC...

  20. Modeling and investigation of Gulf El-Zayt wind farm for stability studying during extreme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Noureldeen

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of extreme gust wind as a case of wind speed variation on a wind farm interconnected electrical grid. The impact of extreme gust wind speed variation on active and reactive power of the wind farms is studied for variable speed wind farm equipped with Doubly Fed Induction Generators (DFIGs. A simulation model of the under implementation 120 MW wind farm at Gulf El-Zayt region, Red Sea, Egypt, is simulated as a case study. A detailed model of extreme gust wind speed variation is implemented and simulated, using MATLAB/Simulink toolbox, based on International Electrotechnical Commission IEC 61400-1 and climate characteristic of Gulf El-Zayt site. The simulation results show the influence of different extreme gust wind speed variations on the fluctuation of active power and reactive power at the Point of Common Coupling (PCC of the studied wind farm.

  1. Comparison of Standard Wind Turbine Models with Vendor Models for Power System Stability Analysis: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honrubia-Escribano, A.; Gomez Lazaro, E.; Jimenez-Buendia, F.; Muljadi, Eduard

    2016-11-01

    The International Electrotechnical Commission Standard 61400-27-1 was published in February 2015. This standard deals with the development of generic terms and parameters to specify the electrical characteristics of wind turbines. Generic models of very complex technological systems, such as wind turbines, are thus defined based on the four common configurations available in the market. Due to its recent publication, the comparison of the response of generic models with specific vendor models plays a key role in ensuring the widespread use of this standard. This paper compares the response of a specific Gamesa dynamic wind turbine model to the corresponding generic IEC Type III wind turbine model response when the wind turbine is subjected to a three-phase voltage dip. This Type III model represents the doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine, which is not only one of the most commonly sold and installed technologies in the current market but also a complex variable-speed operation implementation. In fact, active and reactive power transients are observed due to the voltage reduction. Special attention is given to the reactive power injection provided by the wind turbine models because it is a requirement of current grid codes. Further, the boundaries of the generic models associated with transient events that cannot be represented exactly are included in the paper.

  2. CFD Wake Modelling with a BEM Wind Turbine Sub-Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Hallanger

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling of wind farms using computational fluid dynamics (CFD resolving the flow field around each wind turbine's blades on a moving computational grid is still too costly and time consuming in terms of computational capacity and effort. One strategy is to use sub-models for the wind turbines, and sub-grid models for turbulence production and dissipation to model the turbulent viscosity accurately enough to handle interaction of wakes in wind farms. A wind turbine sub-model, based on the Blade Momentum Theory, see Hansen (2008, has been implemented in an in-house CFD code, see Hallanger et al. (2002. The tangential and normal reaction forces from the wind turbine blades are distributed on the control volumes (CVs at the wind turbine rotor location as sources in the conservation equations of momentum. The classical k-epsilon turbulence model of Launder and Spalding (1972 is implemented with sub-grid turbulence (SGT model, see Sha and Launder (1979 and Sand and Salvesen (1994. Steady state CFD simulations were compared with flow and turbulence measurements in the wake of a model scale wind turbine, see Krogstad and Eriksen (2011. The simulated results compared best with experiments when stalling (boundary layer separation on the wind turbine blades did not occur. The SGT model did improve turbulence level in the wake but seems to smear the wake flow structure. It should be noted that the simulations are carried out steady state not including flow oscillations caused by vortex shedding from tower and blades as they were in the experiments. Further improvement of the simulated velocity defect and turbulence level seems to rely on better parameter estimation to the SGT model, improvements to the SGT model, and possibly transient- instead of steady state simulations.

  3. Modeling and Control of Direct Driven PMSG for Ultra Large Wind Turbines

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed M. Hemeida; Wael A. Farag; Osama A. Mahgoub

    2011-01-01

    This paper focuses on developing an integrated reliable and sophisticated model for ultra large wind turbines And to study the performance and analysis of vector control on large wind turbines. With the advance of power electronics technology, direct driven multi-pole radial flux PMSG (Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator) has proven to be a good choice for wind turbines manufacturers. To study the wind energy conversion systems, it is important to develop a wind turbin...

  4. Experimental model of a wind energy conversion system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasar, C.; Rat, C. L.; Prostean, O.

    2018-01-01

    The renewable energy domain represents an important issue for the sustainable development of the mankind in the actual context of increasing demand for energy along with the increasing pollution that affect the environment. A significant quota of the clean energy is represented by the wind energy. As a consequence, the developing of wind energy conversion systems (WECS) in order to achieve high energetic performances (efficiency, stability, availability, competitive cost etc) represents a topic of permanent actuality. Testing and developing of an optimized control strategy for a WECS direct implemented on a real energetic site is quite difficult and not cost efficient. Thus a more convenient solution consists in a flexible laboratory setup which requires an experimental model of a WECS. Such approach would allow the simulation of various real conditions very similar with existing energetic sites. This paper presents a grid-connected wind turbine emulator. The wind turbine is implemented through a real-time Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) emulator, which will be analyzed extensively in the paper. The HIL system uses software implemented in the LabVIEW programming environment to control an ABB ACS800 electric drive. ACS800 has the task of driving an induction machine coupled to a permanent magnet synchronous generator. The power obtained from the synchronous generator is rectified, filtered and sent to the main grid through a controlled inverter. The control strategy is implemented on a NI CompactRIO (cRIO) platform.

  5. Modeling pulsations in hot stars with winds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noels, Arlette; Godart, Melanie [Institut d' Astrophysique et de Geophysique, Liege (Belgium); Dupret, Marc-Antoine [Observatoire de Paris-Meudon, LESIA (France)], E-mail: Arlette.Noels@ulg.ac.be, E-mail: ma.dupret@obspm.fr, E-mail: Melanie.Godart@ulg.ac.be

    2008-10-15

    The interaction pulsation/mass loss takes different aspects. Pulsations can trigger mass loss as in LBVs and Miras; on the other hand, mass loss can modify the driving conditions within the stars. But the most spectacular aspect is the effect on stellar models which, in turn, opens a royal way to asteroseismology to test physical conditions inside massive stars, such as the extent of convective cores or the appearance of new driving mechanisms. We start with a discussion on MS stars and their strange mode instabilities. We then move on to the excitation of the LBV phenomenon. WR stars and the newly observed MOST period in WR123 are discussed in view of the power of asteroseismology. We then turn to B supergiants, in particular HD163899, and show how asteroseismology can really probe convection, semiconvection and mass loss.

  6. Modeling pulsations in hot stars with winds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noels, Arlette; Godart, Melanie; Dupret, Marc-Antoine

    2008-01-01

    The interaction pulsation/mass loss takes different aspects. Pulsations can trigger mass loss as in LBVs and Miras; on the other hand, mass loss can modify the driving conditions within the stars. But the most spectacular aspect is the effect on stellar models which, in turn, opens a royal way to asteroseismology to test physical conditions inside massive stars, such as the extent of convective cores or the appearance of new driving mechanisms. We start with a discussion on MS stars and their strange mode instabilities. We then move on to the excitation of the LBV phenomenon. WR stars and the newly observed MOST period in WR123 are discussed in view of the power of asteroseismology. We then turn to B supergiants, in particular HD163899, and show how asteroseismology can really probe convection, semiconvection and mass loss.

  7. A 3D Convective Model for the Jovian Wind Bands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, H. G.; Chan, K. L.

    2004-01-01

    In an earlier paper, we proposed that Jupiter's alternating wind bands are a manifestation of the global interaction between rotation and convection in a shallow layer. The model, however, was obtained from linearization of the 2D equations of motions. At HKUST/Hong Kong, we are now trying to study this problem by rigorous numerical simulation. Using a three-dimensional spectral numerical code, we compute models for the outermost layer of Jupiter's convective envelope. Two cases have been studied. In one the atmospheric pressure varies from 1 to 23 bar, and in the other from 1 to 115 bar. The physical parameters (internal energy flux, rotation rate) are chosen to be close to those expected, but solar heating, chemistry, as well as dynamical influences from deeper layers are ignored. The models generate wind field patterns that contain alternating jet streams with resemblance to the Jovian bands. Instantaneous values of the mean zonal flow at the equator reach 80 m/sec. Yet the mean meridional flows are less than 1% of such value. The meridional temperature profile at the cloud top level also shows a double hump structure of a few degrees (as observed) in the subtropics. Though there is not complete quantitative agreement (caused perhaps by neglected effects like solar radiation), these models demonstrate, in principle, the feasibility of generating a Jovian type wind pattern through the interaction of fast rotation and convection in a thin shell.

  8. Impact of tower modeling on wind turbine wakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleusberg, Elektra; Schlatter, Philipp; Henningson, Dan

    2017-11-01

    Recent research suggests the importance of modeling the support structure (tower and nacelle) when investigating the wake development behind wind turbines. These investigations are however mostly limited to low ambient turbulence levels which seldomly occur in field conditions. We present numerical simulations of wind turbine wakes using the actuator line method under different inflow conditions including varying turbulence levels and sheared inflow. The wind turbine, which employs the NREL S826 airfoil, is modeled after experiments conducted at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. The rotor is investigated when perpendicular to the inflow and at a yaw angle of 30 degrees. The support structure is modeled using lift and drag body forces based on tabulated data. The simulations are performed with the spectral-element code Nek5000. After discussing the setup of the numerical domain and the turbulent inflow boundary condition, the influence of the tower model is characterized under turbulent, sheared and uniform inflow and the impact on downstream turbines is evaluated.

  9. Preliminary deformation model for National Seismic Hazard map of Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meilano, Irwan; Gunawan, Endra; Sarsito, Dina; Prijatna, Kosasih; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z. [Geodesy Research Division, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institute of Technology Bandung (Indonesia); Susilo,; Efendi, Joni [Agency for Geospatial Information (BIG) (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    Preliminary deformation model for the Indonesia’s National Seismic Hazard (NSH) map is constructed as the block rotation and strain accumulation function at the elastic half-space. Deformation due to rigid body motion is estimated by rotating six tectonic blocks in Indonesia. The interseismic deformation due to subduction is estimated by assuming coupling on subduction interface while deformation at active fault is calculated by assuming each of the fault‘s segment slips beneath a locking depth or in combination with creeping in a shallower part. This research shows that rigid body motion dominates the deformation pattern with magnitude more than 15 mm/year, except in the narrow area near subduction zones and active faults where significant deformation reach to 25 mm/year.

  10. Offshore Wind Resources Assessment from Multiple Satellite Data and WRF Modeling over South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Chang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using accurate inputs of wind speed is crucial in wind resource assessment, as predicted power is proportional to the wind speed cubed. This study outlines a methodology for combining multiple ocean satellite winds and winds from WRF simulations in order to acquire the accurate reconstructed offshore winds which can be used for offshore wind resource assessment. First, wind speeds retrieved from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR and Scatterometer ASCAT images were validated against in situ measurements from seven coastal meteorological stations in South China Sea (SCS. The wind roses from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS and ASCAT agree well with these observations from the corresponding in situ measurements. The statistical results comparing in situ wind speed and SAR-based (ASCAT-based wind speed for the whole co-located samples show a standard deviation (SD of 2.09 m/s (1.83 m/s and correlation coefficient of R 0.75 (0.80. When the offshore winds (i.e., winds directed from land to sea are excluded, the comparison results for wind speeds show an improvement of SD and R, indicating that the satellite data are more credible over the open ocean. Meanwhile, the validation of satellite winds against the same co-located mast observations shows a satisfactory level of accuracy which was similar for SAR and ASCAT winds. These satellite winds are then assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF Model by WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA system. Finally, the wind resource statistics at 100 m height based on the reconstructed winds have been achieved over the study area, which fully combines the offshore wind information from multiple satellite data and numerical model. The findings presented here may be useful in future wind resource assessment based on satellite data.

  11. A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Lane, Emily; Gillibrand, Philip

    2013-09-01

    Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.

  12. Finite element modeling of the filament winding process using ABAQUS

    OpenAIRE

    Miltenberger, Louis C.

    1992-01-01

    A comprehensive stress model of the filament winding fabrication process, previously implemented in the finite element program, WACSAFE, was implemented using the ABAQUS finite element software package. This new implementation, referred to as the ABWACSAFE procedure, consists of the ABAQUS software and a pre/postprocessing routine that was developed to prepare necessary ABAQUS input files and process ABAQUS displacement results for stress and strain computation. The ABWACSAF...

  13. Modelling and Simulation of VSC-HVDC Connection for Wind Power Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chaudhary, Sanjay Kumar; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the modelling and simulation of offshore wind power plants (WPP) connected to the onshore power system grid by VSC based HVDC transmission. Offshore wind power plant is modelled with several wind turbine generators connected to two separate collector buses with their own plant...... wind turbines. Simulation of power ramping up and down as well as steady state operation has been demonstrated. As an additional case, the primary reserve control logic has been implemented and simulated in PSCAD model....

  14. Data Mining Methods to Generate Severe Wind Gust Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subana Shanmuganathan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Gaining knowledge on weather patterns, trends and the influence of their extremes on various crop production yields and quality continues to be a quest by scientists, agriculturists, and managers. Precise and timely information aids decision-making, which is widely accepted as intrinsically necessary for increased production and improved quality. Studies in this research domain, especially those related to data mining and interpretation are being carried out by the authors and their colleagues. Some of this work that relates to data definition, description, analysis, and modelling is described in this paper. This includes studies that have evaluated extreme dry/wet weather events against reported yield at different scales in general. They indicate the effects of weather extremes such as prolonged high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and severe wind gusts. Occurrences of these events are among the main weather extremes that impact on many crops worldwide. Wind gusts are difficult to anticipate due to their rapid manifestation and yet can have catastrophic effects on crops and buildings. This paper examines the use of data mining methods to reveal patterns in the weather conditions, such as time of the day, month of the year, wind direction, speed, and severity using a data set from a single location. Case study data is used to provide examples of how the methods used can elicit meaningful information and depict it in a fashion usable for management decision making. Historical weather data acquired between 2008 and 2012 has been used for this study from telemetry devices installed in a vineyard in the north of New Zealand. The results show that using data mining techniques and the local weather conditions, such as relative pressure, temperature, wind direction and speed recorded at irregular intervals, can produce new knowledge relating to wind gust patterns for vineyard management decision making.

  15. Trailing edge noise model applied to wind turbine airfoils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertagnolio, F.

    2008-01-15

    The aim of this work is firstly to provide a quick introduction to the theory of noise generation that are relevant to wind turbine technology with focus on trailing edge noise. Secondly, the socalled TNO trailing edge noise model developed by Parchen [1] is described in more details. The model is tested and validated by comparing with other results from the literature. Finally, this model is used in the optimization process of two reference airfoils in order to reduce their noise signature: the RISOE-B1-18 and the S809 airfoils. (au)

  16. A Mathematical Model for the Industrial Hazardous Waste Location-Routing Problem

    OpenAIRE

    Boyer, Omid; Sai Hong, Tang; Pedram, Ali; Mohd Yusuff, Rosnah Bt; Zulkifli, Norzima

    2013-01-01

    Technology progress is a cause of industrial hazardous wastes increasing in the whole world . Management of hazardous waste is a significant issue due to the imposed risk on environment and human life. This risk can be a result of location of undesirable facilities and also routing hazardous waste. In this paper a biobjective mixed integer programing model for location-routing industrial hazardous waste with two objectives is developed. First objective is total cost minimization including tr...

  17. Data Driven Modelling of the Dynamic Wake Between Two Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    turbine. This paper establishes flow models relating the wind speeds at turbines in a farm. So far, research in this area has been mainly based on first principles static models and the data driven modelling done has not included the loading of the upwind turbine and its impact on the wind speed downwind......Wind turbines in a wind farm, influence each other through the wind flow. Downwind turbines are in the wake of upwind turbines and the wind speed experienced at downwind turbines is hence a function of the wind speeds at upwind turbines but also the momentum extracted from the wind by the upwind....... This paper is the first where modern commercial mega watt turbines are used for data driven modelling including the upwind turbine loading by changing power reference. Obtaining the necessary data is difficult and data is therefore limited. A simple dynamic extension to the Jensen wake model is tested...

  18. How Many Model Evaluations Are Required To Predict The AEP Of A Wind Power Plant?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murcia, J P; Réthoré, P E; Natarajan, A; Sørensen, J D

    2015-01-01

    Wind farm flow models have advanced considerably with the use of large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations. The main limitation of these techniques is their high computational time requirements; which makes their use for wind farm annual energy production (AEP) predictions expensive. The objective of the present paper is to minimize the number of model evaluations required to capture the wind power plant's AEP using stationary wind farm flow models. Polynomial chaos techniques are proposed based on arbitrary Weibull distributed wind speed and Von Misses distributed wind direction. The correlation between wind direction and wind speed are captured by defining Weibull-parameters as functions of wind direction. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these methods the expectation and variance of the wind farm power distributions are compared against the traditional binning method with trapezoidal and Simpson's integration rules.The wind farm flow model used in this study is the semi-empirical wake model developed by Larsen [1]. Three test cases are studied: a single turbine, a simple and a real offshore wind power plant. A reduced number of model evaluations for a general wind power plant is proposed based on the convergence of the present method for each case. (paper)

  19. Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

    2016-04-01

    1. Introduction Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are functional for giving information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Several mesoscale models and families of models are being used, and each often contains thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. To remedy this problem and for evaluating the capabilities of mesoscale models to estimate site wind conditions, a tailored benchmarking study has been co-organized by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the European Energy Research Alliance Joint Programme Wind Energy (EERA JP WIND). EWEA hosted results and ensured that participants were anonymous. The blind evaluation was performed at the Wind Energy Department of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) with the following objectives: (1) To highlight common issues on mesoscale modelling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and (2) To identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. 2. Approach Three experimental sites were selected: FINO 3 (offshore, GE), Høvsore (coastal, DK), and Cabauw (land-based, NL), and three other sites without observations based on . The three mast sites were chosen because the availability of concurrent suitable time series of vertical profiles of winds speed and other surface parameters. The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, etc., at various vertical heights for a complete year. The methodology used to derive the time series was left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a brief description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and

  20. Atmospheric stability-dependent infinite wind-farm models and the wake-decay coefficient

    OpenAIRE

    Peña, Alfredo; Rathmann, Ole

    2014-01-01

    We extend the infinite wind-farm boundary-layer (IWFBL) model of Frandsen to take into account atmospheric static stability effects. This extended model is compared with the IWFBL model of Emeis and to the Park wake model used inWind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP), which is computed for an infinite wind farm. The models show similar behavior for the wind-speed reduction when accounting for a number of surface roughness lengths, turbine to turbine separations and wind speeds und...

  1. An intercomparison of mesoscale models at simple sites for wind energy applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria

    2017-01-01

    of the output from 25 NWP models is presented for three sites in northern Europe characterized by simple terrain. The models are evaluated sing a number of statistical properties relevant to wind energy and verified with observations. On average the models have small wind speed biases offshore and aloft ( ... decreases the accuracy of the models, but we found no evidence that using a grid spacing smaller than 3 km is necessary for these simple sites. Applying the models to a simple wind energy offshore wind farm highlights the importance of capturing the correct distributions of wind speed and direction....

  2. Ionization and thermal equilibrium models for O star winds based on time-independent radiation-driven wind theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, J. E.

    1989-01-01

    Ab initio ionization and thermal equilibrium models are calculated for the winds of O stars using the results of steady state radiation-driven wind theory to determine the input parameters. Self-consistent methods are used for the roles of H, He, and the most abundant heavy elements in both the statistical and the thermal equilibrium. The model grid was chosen to encompass all O spectral subtypes and the full range of luminosity classes. Results of earlier modeling of O star winds by Klein and Castor (1978) are reproduced and used to motivate improvements in the treatment of the hydrogen equilibrium. The wind temperature profile is revealed to be sensitive to gross changes in the heavy element abundances, but insensitive to other factors considered such as the mass-loss rate and velocity law. The reduced wind temperatures obtained in observing the luminosity dependence of the Si IV lambda 1397 wind absorption profile are shown to eliminate any prospect of explaining the observed O VI lambda 1036 line profiles in terms of time-independent radiation-driven wind theory.

  3. Ionization and thermal equilibrium models for O star winds based on time-independent radiation-driven wind theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drew, J.E.

    1989-01-01

    Ab initio ionization and thermal equilibrium models are calculated for the winds of O stars using the results of steady state radiation-driven wind theory to determine the input parameters. Self-consistent methods are used for the roles of H, He, and the most abundant heavy elements in both the statistical and the thermal equilibrium. The model grid was chosen to encompass all O spectral subtypes and the full range of luminosity classes. Results of earlier modeling of O star winds by Klein and Castor (1978) are reproduced and used to motivate improvements in the treatment of the hydrogen equilibrium. The wind temperature profile is revealed to be sensitive to gross changes in the heavy element abundances, but insensitive to other factors considered such as the mass-loss rate and velocity law. The reduced wind temperatures obtained in observing the luminosity dependence of the Si IV lambda 1397 wind absorption profile are shown to eliminate any prospect of explaining the observed O VI lambda 1036 line profiles in terms of time-independent radiation-driven wind theory. 55 refs

  4. Hydrodynamic modelling of small upland lakes under strong wind forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, L.; French, J.; Burningham, H.

    2012-04-01

    Small lakes (Area important source of water supply. Lakes also provide an important sedimentary archive of environmental and climate changes and ecosystem function. Hydrodynamic controls on the transport and distribution of lake sediments, and also seasonal variations in thermal structure due to solar radiation, precipitation, evaporation and mixing and the complex vertical and horizontal circulation patterns induced by the action of wind are not very well understood. The work presented here analyses hydrodynamic motions present in small upland lakes due to circulation and internal scale waves, and their linkages with the distribution of bottom sediment accumulation in the lake. For purpose, a 3D hydrodynamic is calibrated and implemented for Llyn Conwy, a small oligotrophic upland lake in North Wales, UK. The model, based around the FVCOM open source community model code, resolves the Navier-Stokes equations using a 3D unstructured mesh and a finite volume scheme. The model is forced by meteorological boundary conditions. Improvements made to the FVCOM code include a new graphical user interface to pre- and post process the model input and results respectively, and a JONSWAT wave model to include the effects of wind-wave induced bottom stresses on lake sediment dynamics. Modelled internal scale waves are validated against summer temperature measurements acquired from a thermistor chain deployed at the deepest part of the lake. Seiche motions were validated using data recorded by high-frequency level sensors around the lake margins, and the velocity field and the circulation patterns were validated using the data recorded by an ADCP and GPS drifters. The model is shown to reproduce the lake hydrodynamics and reveals well-developed seiches at different frequencies superimposed on wind-driven circulation patterns that appear to control the distribution of bottom sediments in this small upland lake.

  5. A modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures in multi-hazard environments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Nathanael J. K.; Gearhart, Jared Lee; Jones, Dean A.; Nozick, Linda Karen; Prince, Michael

    2013-09-01

    Currently, much of protection planning is conducted separately for each infrastructure and hazard. Limited funding requires a balance of expenditures between terrorism and natural hazards based on potential impacts. This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project that created a modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures focused on multiple hazards, including terrorism. To develop this framework, three modeling elements were integrated: natural hazards, terrorism, and interdependent infrastructures. For natural hazards, a methodology was created for specifying events consistent with regional hazards. For terrorism, we modeled the terrorists actions based on assumptions regarding their knowledge, goals, and target identification strategy. For infrastructures, we focused on predicting post-event performance due to specific terrorist attacks and natural hazard events, tempered by appropriate infrastructure investments. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with various examples, including protection of electric power, roadway, and hospital networks.

  6. A high performance finite element model for wind farm modeling in forested areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Herbert; Avila, Matias; Folch, Arnau; Cosculluela, Luis; Prieto, Luis

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy has grown significantly during the past decade and is expected to continue growing in the fight against climate change. In the search for new land where the impact of the wind turbines is small several wind farms are currently being installed in forested areas. In order to optimize the distribution of the wind turbines within the wind farm the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes equations are solved over the domain of interest using either commercial or in house codes. The existence of a canopy alters the Atmospheric Boundary Layer wind profile close to the ground. Therefore in order to obtain a more accurate representation of the flow in forested areas modification to both the Navier Stokes and turbulence variables equations need to be introduced. Several existing canopy models have been tested in an academic problem showing that the one proposed by Sogachev et. al gives the best results. This model has been implemented in an in house CFD solver named Alya. It is a high performance unstructured finite element code that has been designed from scratch to be able to run in the world's biggest supercomputers. Its scalabililty has recently been tested up to 100000 processors in both American and European supercomputers. During the past three years the code has been tuned and tested for wind energy problems. Recent efforts have focused on the canopy model following industry needs. In this work we shall benchmark our results in a wind farm that is currently being designed by Scottish Power and Iberdrola in Scotland. This is a very interesting real case with extensive experimental data from five different masts with anemometers at several heights. It is used to benchmark both the wind profiles and the speed up obtained between different masts. Sixteen different wind directions are simulated. The numerical model provides very satisfactory results for both the masts that are affected by the canopy and those that are not influenced by it.

  7. Model of a generator end-winding cage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leger, A.C.; Fanton, J.P.; Davies, C.

    1994-09-01

    This document presents some studies concerning the vibratory characterization of particular structures called: generator end-winding cages. These structures are mainly made up of the endings of armature windings. The question of their good mechanical behaviour is of prime importance, since they are submitted to high electromagnetic efforts during the different electrical ratings encountered during operation. The designer (GEC-Alsthom) and the user (EDF) have both undertaken numerical calculations in order to characterize a given machine, in this case a 600 MW bipolar generator; it appeared interesting to compare such calculations. The models realized respectively by GEC-Alsthom and EDF make use of different techniques and hypotheses. GEC-Alsthom represents the sets of rods and spacers by plates, which properties are determined by a pre-processor. The model is simplified to take into account the existing symmetries. It takes profit of previous experience and aims at a fast utilisation. The EDF model tends to allow a further comprehensive calculation, form the electromagnetic efforts to the determination of local stresses. The whole set of the constituting elements of the structure is modelled by beams, which leads to an important size for the model (21 000 degrees of freedom). The validation performed on the two models has been focused on the comparison between respective results and also with experimental results. Each model provides values for the first eigenfrequencies and the associated modes shapes. (authors). 3 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  8. LINCOM wind flow model: Application to complex terrain with thermal stratification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dunkerley, F.; Moreno, J.; Mikkelsen, T.

    2001-01-01

    LINCOM is a fast linearised and spectral wind flow model for use over hilly terrain. It is designed to rapidly generate mean wind field predictions which provide input to atmospheric dispersion models and wind engineering applications. The thermal module, LINCOM-T, has recently been improved to p...

  9. Wind and Water Power Modeling and Simulation at the NWTC (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-02-01

    Researchers and engineers at the National Wind Technology Center have developed a wide range of computer modeling and simulation tools to support the wind and water power industries with state-of-the-art design and analysis capabilities.

  10. Research collaboration, hazard modeling and dissemination in volcanology with Vhub

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palma Lizana, J. L.; Valentine, G. A.

    2011-12-01

    Vhub (online at vhub.org) is a cyberinfrastructure for collaboration in volcanology research, education, and outreach. One of the core objectives of this project is to accelerate the transfer of research tools to organizations and stakeholders charged with volcano hazard and risk mitigation (such as observatories). Vhub offers a clearinghouse for computational models of volcanic processes and data analysis, documentation of those models, and capabilities for online collaborative groups focused on issues such as code development, configuration management, benchmarking, and validation. A subset of simulations is already available for online execution, eliminating the need to download and compile locally. In addition, Vhub is a platform for sharing presentations and other educational material in a variety of media formats, which are useful in teaching university-level volcanology. VHub also has wikis, blogs and group functions around specific topics to encourage collaboration and discussion. In this presentation we provide examples of the vhub capabilities, including: (1) tephra dispersion and block-and-ash flow models; (2) shared educational materials; (3) online collaborative environment for different types of research, including field-based studies and plume dispersal modeling; (4) workshops. Future goals include implementation of middleware to allow access to data and databases that are stored and maintained at various institutions around the world. All of these capabilities can be exercised with a user-defined level of privacy, ranging from completely private (only shared and visible to specified people) to completely public. The volcanological community is encouraged to use the resources of vhub and also to contribute models, datasets, and other items that authors would like to disseminate. The project is funded by the US National Science Foundation and includes a core development team at University at Buffalo, Michigan Technological University, and University

  11. Distributed Model Predictive Control of A Wind Farm for Optimal Active Power Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

    2015-01-01

    , which combines the clustering, linear identification and pattern recognition techniques. The developed model, consisting of 47 affine dynamics, is verified by the comparison with a widely-used nonlinear wind turbine model. It can be used as a predictive model for the Model Predictive Control (MPC......This paper presents a dynamic discrete-time Piece- Wise Affine (PWA) model of a wind turbine for the optimal active power control of a wind farm. The control objectives include both the power reference tracking from the system operator and the wind turbine mechanical load minimization. Instead...... of partial linearization of the wind turbine model at selected operating points, the nonlinearities of the wind turbine model are represented by a piece-wise static function based on the wind turbine system inputs and state variables. The nonlinearity identification is based on the clustering-based algorithm...

  12. From deterministic hazard modelling to risk and loss estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quan Luna, B.; van Westen, C.J.; ... [et al.],; Malet, J.-P.; Glade, T.; Casagli, N.

    2010-01-01

    Several steps need to be accomplished for a quantitative landslide risk assessment. First, an analysis of the hazardous process and intensity has to be performed. Afterwards, the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard need to be quantified, preferentially in monetary values. For that purpose,

  13. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  14. Wind turbine fatigue damage evaluation based on a linear model and a spectral method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tibaldi, Carlo; Henriksen, Lars Christian; Hansen, Morten Hartvig

    2015-01-01

    presents a method to estimate wind turbine fatigue damage suited for optimization design applications. The method utilizes a high-order linear wind turbine model. The model comprehends a detailed description of the wind turbine and the controller. The fatigue is computed with a spectral method applied...... to power spectral densities of wind turbine sensor responses to turbulent wind. In this paper, the model is validated both in time domain and frequency domain with a nonlinear aeroservoelastic model. The approach is compared quantitatively against fatigue damage obtained from the power spectra of time...

  15. Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Deockho Kim; Jin Hur

    2017-01-01

    Due to the intermittency of wind power generation, it is very hard to manage its system operation and planning. In order to incorporate higher wind power penetrations into power systems that maintain secure and economic power system operation, an accurate and efficient estimation of wind power outputs is needed. In this paper, we propose the stochastic prediction of wind generating resources using an enhanced ensemble model for Jeju Island’s wind farms in South Korea. When selecting the poten...

  16. Signal processing for airborne doppler radar detection of hazardous wind shear as applied to NASA 1991 radar flight experiment data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxa, Ernest G., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Radar data collected during the 1991 NASA flight tests have been selectively analyzed to support research directed at developing both improved as well as new algorithms for detecting hazardous low-altitude windshear. Analysis of aircraft attitude data from several flights indicated that platform stability bandwidths were small compared to the data rate bandwidths which should support an assumption that radar returns can be treated as short time stationary. Various approaches at detection of weather returns in the presence of ground clutter are being investigated. Non-coventional clutter rejection through spectrum mode tracking and classification algorithms is a subject of continuing research. Based upon autoregressive modeling of the radar return time sequence, this approach may offer an alternative to overcome errors in conventional pulse-pair estimates. Adaptive filtering is being evaluated as a means of rejecting clutter with emphasis on low signal-to-clutter ratio situations, particularly in the presence of discrete clutter interference. An analysis of out-of-range clutter returns is included to illustrate effects of ground clutter interference due to range aliasing for aircraft on final approach. Data are presented to indicate how aircraft groundspeed might be corrected from the radar data as well as point to an observed problem of groundspeed estimate bias variation with radar antenna scan angle. A description of how recorded clutter return data are mixed with simulated weather returns is included. This enables the researcher to run controlled experiments to test signal processing algorithms. In the summary research efforts involving improved modelling of radar ground clutter returns and a Bayesian approach at hazard factor estimation are mentioned.

  17. Scaling up from field to region for wind erosion prediction using a field-scale wind erosion model and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobeck, T.M.; Parker, N.C.; Haskell, S.; Guoding, K.

    2000-01-01

    Factors that affect wind erosion such as surface vegetative and other cover, soil properties and surface roughness usually change spatially and temporally at the field-scale to produce important field-scale variations in wind erosion. Accurate estimation of wind erosion when scaling up from fields to regions, while maintaining meaningful field-scale process details, remains a challenge. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the feasibility of using a field-scale wind erosion model with a geographic information system (GIS) to scale up to regional levels and to quantify the differences in wind erosion estimates produced by different scales of soil mapping used as a data layer in the model. A GIS was used in combination with the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ), a field-scale wind erosion model, to estimate wind erosion for two 50 km2 areas. Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery from 1993 with 30 m resolution was used as a base map. The GIS database layers included land use, soils, and other features such as roads. The major land use was agricultural fields. Data on 1993 crop management for selected fields of each crop type were collected from local government agency offices and used to 'train' the computer to classify land areas by crop and type of irrigation (agroecosystem) using commercially available software. The land area of the agricultural land uses was overestimated by 6.5% in one region (Lubbock County, TX, USA) and underestimated by about 21% in an adjacent region (Terry County, TX, USA). The total estimated wind erosion potential for Terry County was about four times that estimated for adjacent Lubbock County. The difference in potential erosion among the counties was attributed to regional differences in surface soil texture. In a comparison of different soil map scales in Terry County, the generalised soil map had over 20% more of the land area and over 15% greater erosion potential in loamy sand soils than did the detailed soil map. As

  18. A study of the slope of cox proportional hazard and Weibull models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, when the distributional assumptions for Weibull Model is not satisfied, Cox Proportional Hazard Model will be used, although semi-parametric, because it possessed a similar characteristic of covariates inclusion. The main objective of this research work is to determine if the cox proportional hazard model depend ...

  19. Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration within IEA Wind Task 23: Phase IV Results Regarding Floating Wind Turbine Modeling; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonkman, J.; Larsen, T.; Hansen, A.; Nygaard, T.; Maus, K.; Karimirad, M.; Gao, Z.; Moan, T.; Fylling, I.

    2010-04-01

    Offshore wind turbines are designed and analyzed using comprehensive simulation codes that account for the coupled dynamics of the wind inflow, aerodynamics, elasticity, and controls of the turbine, along with the incident waves, sea current, hydrodynamics, and foundation dynamics of the support structure. This paper describes the latest findings of the code-to-code verification activities of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, which operates under Subtask 2 of the International Energy Agency Wind Task 23. In the latest phase of the project, participants used an assortment of codes to model the coupled dynamic response of a 5-MW wind turbine installed on a floating spar buoy in 320 m of water. Code predictions were compared from load-case simulations selected to test different model features. The comparisons have resulted in a greater understanding of offshore floating wind turbine dynamics and modeling techniques, and better knowledge of the validity of various approximations. The lessons learned from this exercise have improved the participants' codes, thus improving the standard of offshore wind turbine modeling.

  20. Measurements and modeling of the wind profile up to 600 meters at a flat coastal site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batchvarova, Ekaterina; Gryning, Sven-Erik; Floors, Rogier Ralph

    2014-01-01

    This study shows long-term ABL wind profile features by comparing long-range wind lidar measurements and the output from a mesoscale model. The study is based on one-year pulsed lidar (Wind Cube 70) measurements of wind speed and direction from 100 to 600 meters with vertical resolution of 50......) and shape (k) parameters of the Weibull dis-tribution above 100 m. The latter signifies that the model suggests a wider distri-bution in the wind speed compared to measurements....... meters and time resolution of 10 minutes at a coastal site on the West coast of Denmark and WRF ARW (NCAR) simulations for the same period. The model evaluation is performed based on wind speed, wind direction, as well as statistical parameters of the Weibull distribution of the wind speed time series...

  1. Modelling Wind Turbine Failures based on Weather Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reder, Maik; Melero, Julio J.

    2017-11-01

    A large proportion of the overall costs of a wind farm is directly related to operation and maintenance (O&M) tasks. By applying predictive O&M strategies rather than corrective approaches these costs can be decreased significantly. Here, especially wind turbine (WT) failure models can help to understand the components’ degradation processes and enable the operators to anticipate upcoming failures. Usually, these models are based on the age of the systems or components. However, latest research shows that the on-site weather conditions also affect the turbine failure behaviour significantly. This study presents a novel approach to model WT failures based on the environmental conditions to which they are exposed to. The results focus on general WT failures, as well as on four main components: gearbox, generator, pitch and yaw system. A penalised likelihood estimation is used in order to avoid problems due to for example highly correlated input covariates. The relative importance of the model covariates is assessed in order to analyse the effect of each weather parameter on the model output.

  2. Fatigue reliability and effective turbulence models in wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs; Tarp-Johansen, N.J.

    2007-01-01

    Offshore wind farms with 100 or more wind turbines are expected to be installed many places during the next years. Behind a wind turbine a wake is formed where the mean wind speed decreases slightly and the turbulence intensity increases significantly. This increase in turbulence intensity in wak...

  3. Utilization Probability Map for Migrating Bald Eagles in Northeastern North America: A Tool for Siting Wind Energy Facilities and Other Flight Hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mojica, Elizabeth K; Watts, Bryan D; Turrin, Courtney L

    2016-01-01

    Collisions with anthropogenic structures are a significant and well documented source of mortality for avian species worldwide. The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) is known to be vulnerable to collision with wind turbines and federal wind energy guidelines include an eagle risk assessment for new projects. To address the need for risk assessment, in this study, we 1) identified areas of northeastern North America utilized by migrating bald eagles, and 2) compared these with high wind-potential areas to identify potential risk of bald eagle collision with wind turbines. We captured and marked 17 resident and migrant bald eagles in the northern Chesapeake Bay between August 2007 and May 2009. We produced utilization distribution (UD) surfaces for 132 individual migration tracks using a dynamic Brownian bridge movement model and combined these to create a population wide UD surface with a 1 km cell size. We found eagle migration movements were concentrated within two main corridors along the Appalachian Mountains and the Atlantic Coast. Of the 3,123 wind turbines ≥100 m in height in the study area, 38% were located in UD 20, and 31% in UD 40. In the United States portion of the study area, commercially viable wind power classes overlapped with only 2% of the UD category 20 (i.e., the areas of highest use by migrating eagles) and 4% of UD category 40. This is encouraging because it suggests that wind energy development can still occur in the study area at sites that are most viable from a wind power perspective and are unlikely to cause significant mortality of migrating eagles. In siting new turbines, wind energy developers should avoid the high-use migration corridors (UD categories 20 & 40) and focus new wind energy projects on lower-risk areas (UD categories 60-100).

  4. Utilization Probability Map for Migrating Bald Eagles in Northeastern North America: A Tool for Siting Wind Energy Facilities and Other Flight Hazards.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth K Mojica

    Full Text Available Collisions with anthropogenic structures are a significant and well documented source of mortality for avian species worldwide. The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus is known to be vulnerable to collision with wind turbines and federal wind energy guidelines include an eagle risk assessment for new projects. To address the need for risk assessment, in this study, we 1 identified areas of northeastern North America utilized by migrating bald eagles, and 2 compared these with high wind-potential areas to identify potential risk of bald eagle collision with wind turbines. We captured and marked 17 resident and migrant bald eagles in the northern Chesapeake Bay between August 2007 and May 2009. We produced utilization distribution (UD surfaces for 132 individual migration tracks using a dynamic Brownian bridge movement model and combined these to create a population wide UD surface with a 1 km cell size. We found eagle migration movements were concentrated within two main corridors along the Appalachian Mountains and the Atlantic Coast. Of the 3,123 wind turbines ≥100 m in height in the study area, 38% were located in UD 20, and 31% in UD 40. In the United States portion of the study area, commercially viable wind power classes overlapped with only 2% of the UD category 20 (i.e., the areas of highest use by migrating eagles and 4% of UD category 40. This is encouraging because it suggests that wind energy development can still occur in the study area at sites that are most viable from a wind power perspective and are unlikely to cause significant mortality of migrating eagles. In siting new turbines, wind energy developers should avoid the high-use migration corridors (UD categories 20 & 40 and focus new wind energy projects on lower-risk areas (UD categories 60-100.

  5. Developments of the offshore wind turbine wake model Fuga

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ott, Søren; Nielsen, Morten

    with the modified equations. - Meandering. Meandering has been included in the form of a post processing of the model results that bend and twist the wake centreline. The meandering centrelines are calculated using a Gaussian process developed on the basis of measured spectra. An analysis of meteorological data...... from Horns Rev has been made in order to quantify the impact of non-stationarity of the wind direction. The results are generalized so as to account for the uncertainties imposed by a ten minute mean value trend as well as by the distance between turbines and the met mast. The old model has been...... with data is made. Even if the model predictions fall within estimated error bars, the model seems to over predict the measured efficiencies by a few percent. The model works best for unstable, neutral and light stable conditions whereas the results for stable and very stable conditions are questionable. We...

  6. Multivariate Modelling of Extreme Load Combinations for Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2015-01-01

    We demonstrate a model for estimating the joint probability distribution of two load components acting on a wind turbine blade cross section. The model addresses the problem of modelling the probability distribution of load time histories with large periodic components by dividing the signal...... into a periodic part and a perturbation term, where each part has a known probability distribution. The proposed model shows good agreement with simulated data under stationary conditions, and a design load envelope based on this model is comparable to the load envelope estimated using the standard procedure...... for determining contemporaneous loads. By defining a joint probability distribution and full return-period contours for multiple load components, the suggested procedure gives the possibility for determining the most critical loading direction in a blade cross section, or for carrying out reliability analysis...

  7. Filament winding cylinders. II - Validation of the process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calius, Emilio P.; Lee, Soo-Yong; Springer, George S.

    1990-01-01

    Analytical and experimental studies were performed to validate the model developed by Lee and Springer for simulating the manufacturing process of filament wound composite cylinders. First, results calculated by the Lee-Springer model were compared to results of the Calius-Springer thin cylinder model. Second, temperatures and strains calculated by the Lee-Springer model were compared to data. The data used in these comparisons were generated during the course of this investigation with cylinders made of Hercules IM-6G/HBRF-55 and Fiberite T-300/976 graphite-epoxy tows. Good agreement was found between the calculated and measured stresses and strains, indicating that the model is a useful representation of the winding and curing processes.

  8. The suitability of the IEC 61400-2 wind model for small wind turbines operating in the built environment★

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Samuel P.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the applicability of the assumed wind fields in International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC standard 61400 Part 2, the design standard for small wind turbines, for a turbine operating in the built environment, and the effects these wind fields have on the predicted performance of a 5 kW Aerogenesis turbine using detailed aeroelastic models developed in Fatigue Aerodynamics Structures and Turbulence (FAST. Detailed wind measurements were acquired at two built environment sites: from the rooftop of a Bunnings Ltd. warehouse at Port Kennedy (PK (Perth, Australia and from the small wind turbine site at the University of Newcastle at Callaghan (Newcastle, Australia. For both sites, IEC 61400-2 underestimates the turbulence intensity for the majority of the measured wind speeds. A detailed aeroelastic model was built in FAST using the assumed wind field from IEC 61400-2 and the measured wind fields from PK and Callaghan as an input to predict key turbine performance parameters. The results of this analysis show a modest increase in the predicted mean power for the higher turbulence regimes of PK and Callaghan as well as higher variation in output power. Predicted mean rotor thrust and blade flapwise loading showed a minor increase due to higher turbulence, with mean predicted torque almost identical but with increased variations due to higher turbulence. Damage equivalent loading for the blade flapwise moment was predicted to be 58% and 11% higher for a turbine operating at Callaghan and PK respectively, when compared with IEC 61400-2 wind field. Time series plots for blade flapwise moments and power spectral density plots in the frequency domain show consistently higher blade flapwise bending moments for the Callaghan site with both the sites showing a once-per-revolution response.

  9. Alternative wind power modeling methods using chronological and load duration curve production cost models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, M R

    1996-04-01

    As an intermittent resource, capturing the temporal variation in windpower is an important issue in the context of utility production cost modeling. Many of the production cost models use a method that creates a cumulative probability distribution that is outside the time domain. The purpose of this report is to examine two production cost models that represent the two major model types: chronological and load duration cure models. This report is part of the ongoing research undertaken by the Wind Technology Division of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in utility modeling and wind system integration.

  10. Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul

    2017-12-01

    Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

  11. Simulation Model of an Active-stall Fixed-speed Wind Turbine Controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jauch, Clemens; Hansen, Anca D.; Soerensen, Poul

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes an active-stall wind turbine controller. The objective is to develop a general model of an active stall controller in order to simulate the operation of grid connected active stall wind turbines. The active stall turbine concept and its control strategies are presented...... and evaluated by simulations. The presented controller is described for continuous operation under all wind speeds from start-up wind speed to shut down wind speed. Due to its parametric implementation it is general i.e. it can represent different active stall wind turbine controllers and can be implemented...

  12. Wind-induced response of CN-Tower: comparison of model and full scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monbaliu, J.; Ruigrok, C.; Isyumov, N.

    1985-01-01

    The approximately 555-m high CN Communications Tower in Toronto has now been operational for nearly a decade. The action of wind on this tower was extensively tested at the Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory during the design of the tower. This study provided information on the overall wind loads and responses of the structure, the action of wind on various components, and its effects on the tower performance including transmission quality. A program of monitoring and recording the wind induced response and various meteorological data was started in 1977. This paper presents some results of that program and makes comparisons with wind tunnel model data. (author)

  13. Simulation model of an active-stall fixed-speed wind turbine controller

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jauch, C.; Hansen, A.D.; Sorensen, P.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2004-07-01

    This paper describes an active-stall wind turbine controller. The objective is to develop a general model of an active stall controller in order to simulate the operation of grid connected active stall wind turbines. The active stall turbine concept and its control strategies are presented and evaluated by simulations. The presented controller is described for continuous operation under all wind speeds from start-up wind speed to shut down wind speed. Due to its parametric implementation it is general i. e. it can represent different active stall wind turbine controllers and can be implemented in different simulation tools. (author)

  14. Systematic Wind Farm Measurement Data Filtering Tool for Wake Model Calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rethore, Pierre-Elouan Mikael; Johansen, Nicholas Alan; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs

    A set of systematic methods for characterizing the sensors of a wind farm and using these sensors to filter more accurately large volumes of measurement data is proposed. These methods are based on the experience accumulated while processing datasets from two large offshore wind farms in Denmark....... Both wake model developers and wind farm operators seeking to determine how the wind farm operates under specific conditions can find these methods valuable. The methods are general and can be applied successfully to any wind farm by taking into consideration the specific aspects of each wind farm....

  15. ARIMA-Based Time Series Model of Stochastic Wind Power Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Pedersen, Troels; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic wind power model based on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process. The model takes into account the nonstationarity and physical limits of stochastic wind power generation. The model is constructed based on wind power measurement of one year from...... the Nysted offshore wind farm in Denmark. The proposed limited-ARIMA (LARIMA) model introduces a limiter and characterizes the stochastic wind power generation by mean level, temporal correlation and driving noise. The model is validated against the measurement in terms of temporal correlation...... and probability distribution. The LARIMA model outperforms a first-order transition matrix based discrete Markov model in terms of temporal correlation, probability distribution and model parameter number. The proposed LARIMA model is further extended to include the monthly variation of the stochastic wind power...

  16. Evaluating the hazard from Siding Spring dust: Models and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christou, A.

    2014-12-01

    Long-period comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will pass at a distance of ~140 thousand km (9e-4 AU) - about a third of a lunar distance - from the centre of Mars, closer to this planet than any known comet has come to the Earth since records began. Closest approach is expected to occur at 18:30 UT on the 19th October. This provides an opportunity for a ``free'' flyby of a different type of comet than those investigated by spacecraft so far, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko currently under scrutiny by the Rosetta spacecraft. At the same time, the passage of the comet through Martian space will create the opportunity to study the reaction of the planet's upper atmosphere to a known natural perturbation. The flip-side of the coin is the risk to Mars-orbiting assets, both existing (NASA's Mars Odyssey & Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter and ESA's Mars Express) and in transit (NASA's MAVEN and ISRO's Mangalyaan) by high-speed cometary dust potentially impacting spacecraft surfaces. Much work has already gone into assessing this hazard and devising mitigating measures in the precious little warning time given to characterise this object until Mars encounter. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of how the meteoroid stream and comet coma dust impact models evolved since the comet's discovery and discuss lessons learned should similar circumstances arise in the future.

  17. Advanced modelling of doubly fed induction generator wind turbine under network disturbance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seman, S.; Iov, Florin; Niiranen, J.

    This paper presents a variable speed wind turbine simulator. The simulator is used for a 2 MW wind turbine transient behavior study during a short-term symmetrical network disturbance. The mechanical part of wind turbine model consists of the rotor aerodynamic model, the wind turbine control...... and the drive train model. The Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) is represented by an analytical two-axis model with constant lumped parameters and by Finite Element Method (FEM) based model. The model of the DFIG is coupled with the model of the passive crowbar protected and DTC controlled frequency...

  18. Linear and non-linear autoregressive models for short-term wind speed forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydia, M.; Suresh Kumar, S.; Immanuel Selvakumar, A.; Edwin Prem Kumar, G.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Models for wind speed prediction at 10-min intervals up to 1 h built on time-series wind speed data. • Four different multivariate models for wind speed built based on exogenous variables. • Non-linear models built using three data mining algorithms outperform the linear models. • Autoregressive models based on wind direction perform better than other models. - Abstract: Wind speed forecasting aids in estimating the energy produced from wind farms. The soaring energy demands of the world and minimal availability of conventional energy sources have significantly increased the role of non-conventional sources of energy like solar, wind, etc. Development of models for wind speed forecasting with higher reliability and greater accuracy is the need of the hour. In this paper, models for predicting wind speed at 10-min intervals up to 1 h have been built based on linear and non-linear autoregressive moving average models with and without external variables. The autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction and annual trends have been built using data obtained from Sotavento Galicia Plc. and autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction, wind shear and temperature have been built on data obtained from Centre for Wind Energy Technology, Chennai, India. While the parameters of the linear models are obtained using the Gauss–Newton algorithm, the non-linear autoregressive models are developed using three different data mining algorithms. The accuracy of the models has been measured using three performance metrics namely, the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

  19. Comprehensive Modeling of the Effects of Hazardous Asteroids Mitigation Techniques

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A key challenge for the future of humanity is to develop and understand what technological options are viable for deflecting or mitigating hazardous asteroids. While...

  20. Wind laws for shockless initialization. [numerical forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Shkoller, B.

    1976-01-01

    A system of diagnostic equations for the velocity field, or wind laws, was derived for each of a number of models of large-scale atmospheric flow. The derivation in each case is mathematically exact and does not involve any physical assumptions not already present in the prognostic equations, such as nondivergence or vanishing of derivatives of the divergence. Therefore, initial states computed by solving these diagnostic equations should be compatible with the type of motion described by the prognostic equations of the model and should not generate initialization shocks when inserted into the model. Numerical solutions of the diagnostic system corresponding to a barotropic model are exhibited. Some problems concerning the possibility of implementing such a system in operational numerical weather prediction are discussed.

  1. Summary Report: The Shadow effect of large wind farms: measurements, data analysis and modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Sten Tronæs; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Rathmann, Ole

    It was the goal of the project – by means of data from the demonstration wind farms Horns Rev and Nysted, analyses of these data and modelling – to facilitate prediction of the power losses from a wind farm should a new wind farm be built upwind relative to the prevailing wind direction......: • Measurements were carried out at the Nysted and Horns Rev demonstration wind farms for several years. Doing so included design, installation and operation of the measurement system • A data base was built from the incoming data. The data have been organized to facilitate verification of the models developed....... Or conversely, predict with adequate accuracy the production of a new wind farm built downwind of an existing wind farm. The project should be seen in the perspective of the two existing demonstration wind farms that extend 5-10 km in each direction. In order to e.g. use the existing electrical infrastructure...

  2. Modelling and control of variable speed wind turbines for power system studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michalke, Gabriele; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2010-01-01

    and implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. Important issues like the fault ride-through and grid support capabilities of these wind turbine concepts are addressed. The paper reveals that advanced control of variable speed wind turbines can improve power system stability. Finally......, it will be shown in the paper that wind parks consisting of variable speed wind turbines can help nearby connected fixed speed wind turbines to ride-through grid faults. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.......Modern wind turbines are predominantly variable speed wind turbines with power electronic interface. Emphasis in this paper is therefore on the modelling and control issues of these wind turbine concepts and especially on their impact on the power system. The models and control are developed...

  3. Documentation, User Support, and Verification of Wind Turbine and Plant Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Zavadil; Vadim Zheglov; Yuriy Kazachkov; Bo Gong; Juan Sanchez; Jun Li

    2012-09-18

    As part of the Utility Wind Energy Integration Group (UWIG) and EnerNex's Wind Turbine Modeling Project, EnerNex has received ARRA (federal stimulus) funding through the Department of Energy (DOE) to further the progress of wind turbine and wind plant models. Despite the large existing and planned wind generation deployment, industry-standard models for wind generation have not been formally adopted. Models commonly provided for interconnection studies are not adequate for use in general transmission planning studies, where public, non-proprietary, documented and validated models are needed. NERC MOD (North American Electric Reliability Corporation) reliability standards require that power flow and dynamics models be provided, in accordance with regional requirements and procedures. The goal of this project is to accelerate the appropriate use of generic wind turbine models for transmission network analysis by: (1) Defining proposed enhancements to the generic wind turbine model structures that would allow representation of more advanced; (2) Comparative testing of the generic models against more detailed (and sometimes proprietary) versions developed by turbine vendors; (3) Developing recommended parameters for the generic models to best mimic the performance of specific commercial wind turbines; (4) Documenting results of the comparative simulations in an application guide for users; (5) Conducting technology transfer activities in regional workshops for dissemination of knowledge and information gained, and to engage electric power and wind industry personnel in the project while underway; (6) Designing of a "living" homepage to establish an online resource for transmission planners.

  4. An Experimental Investigation of FNN Model for Wind Speed Forecasting Using EEMD and CS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhou Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With depletion of traditional energy and increasing environmental problems, wind energy, as an alternative renewable energy, has drawn more and more attention internationally. Meanwhile, wind is plentiful, clean, and environmentally friendly; moreover, its speed is a very important piece of information needed in the operations and planning of the wind power system. Therefore, choosing an effective forecasting model with good performance plays a quite significant role in wind power system. A hybrid CS-EEMD-FNN model is firstly proposed in this paper for multistep ahead prediction of wind speed, in which EEMD is employed as a data-cleaning method that aims to remove the high frequency noise embedded in the wind speed series. CS optimization algorithm is used to select the best parameters in the FNN model. In order to evaluate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed hybrid model, three other short-term wind speed forecasting models, namely, FNN model, EEMD-FNN model, and CS-FNN model, are carried out to forecast wind speed using data measured at a typical site in Shandong wind farm, China, over three seasons in 2011. Experimental results demonstrate that the developed hybrid CS-EEMD-FNN model outperforms other models with more accuracy, which is suitable to wind speed forecasting in this area.

  5. Design and Study of a Low-Cost Laboratory Model Digital Wind Power Meter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Rugmini; Karthika, S.

    2010-01-01

    A vane-type low-cost laboratory model anemometer cum power meter is designed and constructed for measuring low wind energy created from accelerating fluids. The constructed anemometer is a device which records the electrical power obtained by the conversion of wind power using a wind sensor coupled to a DC motor. It is designed for its…

  6. Comparing mixing-length models of the diabatic wind profile over homogeneous terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Gryning, Sven-Erik; Hasager, Charlotte Bay

    2010-01-01

    Models of the diabatic wind profile over homogeneous terrain for the entire atmospheric boundary layer are developed using mixing-length theory and are compared to wind speed observations up to 300 m at the National Test Station for Wind Turbines at Høvsøre, Denmark. The measurements are performed...

  7. Markov Chain model for the stochastic behaviors of wind-direction data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masseran, Nurulkamal

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • I develop a Markov chain model to describe about the stochastic and probabilistic behaviors of wind direction data. • I describe some of the theoretical arguments regarding the Markov chain model in term of wind direction data. • I suggest a limiting probabilities approach to determine a dominant directions of wind blow. - Abstract: Analyzing the behaviors of wind direction can complement knowledge concerning wind speed and help researchers draw conclusions regarding wind energy potential. Knowledge of the wind’s direction enables the wind turbine to be positioned in such a way as to maximize the total amount of captured energy and optimize the wind farm’s performance. In this paper, first-order and higher-order Markov chain models are proposed to describe the probabilistic behaviors of wind-direction data. A case study is conducted using data from Mersing, Malaysia. The wind-direction data are classified according to an eight-state Markov chain based on natural geographical directions. The model’s parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method and the linear programming formulation. Several theoretical arguments regarding the model are also discussed. Finally, limiting probabilities are used to determine a long-run proportion of the wind directions generated. The results explain the dominant direction for Mersing’s wind in terms of probability metrics

  8. Model Validation at the 204 MW New Mexico Wind Energy Center: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, E.; Butterfield, C. P.; Ellis, A.; Mechenbier, J.; Hochheimer, J.; Young, R.; Miller, N.; Delmerico, R.; Zavadil, R.; Smith, J. C.

    2006-06-01

    In this paper, we describe methods to derive and validate equivalent models for a large wind farm. FPL Energy's 204-MW New Mexico Wind Energy Center, which is interconnected to the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) transmission system, was used as a case study. The methods described are applicable to any large wind power plant.

  9. Investigation of a Hybrid Winding Concept for Toroidal Inductors using 3D Finite Element Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Henrik; Andersen, Thomas; Mønster, Jakob Døllner

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates a hybrid winding concept for a toroidal inductor by simulating the winding resistance as a function of frequency. The problem of predicting the resistance of a non-uniform and complex winding shape is solved using 3D Finite Element Modeling. A prototype is built and tested...

  10. Modeling large offshore wind farms under different atmospheric stability regimes with the Park wake model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Rathmann, Ole

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate a modified version of the Park wake model against power data from a west-east row in the middle of the Horns Rev I offshore wind farm. The evaluation is performed on data classified in four different atmospheric stability conditions, for a narrow wind speed range, and a wide range...... turbines on the row and those using the WAsP recommended value closer to the data for the first turbines. It is generally seen that under stable and unstable atmospheric conditions the power deficits are the highest and lowest, respectively, but the wind conditions under both stability regimes...

  11. Modeling large offshore wind farms under different atmospheric stability regimes with the Park wake model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peña, Alfredo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Rathmann, Ole

    2013-01-01

    Here, we evaluate a modified version of the Park wake model against power data from a west-east row in the middle of the Horns Rev I offshore wind farm. The evaluation is performed on data classified in four different atmospheric stability conditions, for a narrow wind speed range, and a wide range...... turbines and those using the WAsP recommended value closer to the data for the first turbines. It is generally seen that under stable and unstable atmospheric conditions the power deficits are the highest and lowest, respectively, but the wind conditions under both stability regimes are different...

  12. Comparison of aerodynamic models for Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simão Ferreira, C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Barone, M.; Roscher, B.; Deglaire, P.; Arduin, I.

    2014-06-01

    Multi-megawatt Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs) are experiencing an increased interest for floating offshore applications. However, VAWT development is hindered by the lack of fast, accurate and validated simulation models. This work compares six different numerical models for VAWTS: a multiple streamtube model, a double-multiple streamtube model, the actuator cylinder model, a 2D potential flow panel model, a 3D unsteady lifting line model, and a 2D conformal mapping unsteady vortex model. The comparison covers rotor configurations with two NACA0015 blades, for several tip speed ratios, rotor solidity and fixed pitch angle, included heavily loaded rotors, in inviscid flow. The results show that the streamtube models are inaccurate, and that correct predictions of rotor power and rotor thrust are an effect of error cancellation which only occurs at specific configurations. The other four models, which explicitly model the wake as a system of vorticity, show mostly differences due to the instantaneous or time averaged formulation of the loading and flow, for which further research is needed.

  13. Modeling utility-scale wind power plants, part 1: Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, M.

    2000-06-29

    As the worldwide use of wind turbine generators continues to increase in utility-scale applications, it will become increasingly important to assess the economic and reliability impact of these intermittent resources. Although the utility industry in the United States appears to be moving towards a restructured environment, basic economic and reliability issues will continue to be relevant to companies involved with electricity generation. This paper is the first of two that address modeling approaches and results obtained in several case studies and research projects at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This first paper addresses the basic economic issues associated with electricity production from several generators that include large-scale wind power plants. An important part of this discussion is the role of unit commitment and economic dispatch in production-cost models. This paper includes overviews and comparisons of the prevalent production-cost modeling met hods, including several case studies applied to a variety of electric utilities. The second paper discusses various methods of assessing capacity credit and results from several reliability-based studies performed at NREL.

  14. Model for vortex turbulence with discontinuities in the solar wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. P. Verkhoglyadova

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A model of vortex with embedded discontinuities in plasma flow is developed in the framework of ideal MHD in a low b plasma. Vortex structures are considered as a result of 2-D evolution of nonlinear shear Alfvén waves in the heliosphere. Physical properties of the solutions and vector fields are analyzed and the observational aspects of the model are discussed. The ratio of normal components to the discontinuity Br /Vr can be close to -2. The alignment between velocity and magnetic field vectors takes place. Spacecraft crossing such vortices will typically observe a pair of discontinuities, but with dissimilar properties. Occurrence rate for different discontinuity types is estimated and agrees with observations in high-speed solar wind stream. Discontinuity crossing provides a backward rotation of magnetic field vector and can be observed as part of a backward arc. The Ulysses magnetometer data obtained in the fast solar wind are compared with the results of theoretical modelling.

  15. Towards a Wind Turbine Wake Reduced-Order Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Nicholas; Viggiano, Bianca; Calaf, Marc; Tutkun, Murat; Cal, Raúl Bayoán

    2017-11-01

    A reduced-order model for a wind turbine wake is sought for prediction and control. Basis functions from the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) represent the spatially coherent turbulence structures in the wake; eigenvalues delineate the turbulence kinetic energy associated with each mode. Back-projecting the POD modes onto the velocity snapshots produces coefficients that express the amplitude of each mode in time. A reduced-order model of the wind turbine wake (wakeROM) is defined through a series of polynomial parameters that quantify mode interaction and the evolution of each mode coefficient. Tikhonov regularization is employed to recalibrate the dynamical system, reducing error in the modeled mode coefficients and adding stability to the system. The wakeROM is periodically reinitialized by relating the incoming turbulent velocity to the POD mode coefficients. A high-level view of the wakeROM provides as a platform to discuss promising research direction, alternate processes that will enhance stability, and portability to control methods. NSF- ECCS-1032647, NSF-CBET-1034581, Research Council of Norway Project Number 231491.

  16. Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model

    OpenAIRE

    Haixiang Zang; Lei Fan; Mian Guo; Zhinong Wei; Guoqiang Sun; Li Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EE...

  17. The Triple Spar campaign: Model tests of a 10MW floating wind turbine with waves, wind and pitch control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredmose, Henrik; Lemmer, F.; Borg, Michael Borg

    2017-01-01

    Results of a test campaign for a floating wind turbine in simultaneous wind and wave forcing at scale 1:60 are presented. The floater is the Triple Spar floater, a hybrid between a spar buoy and a semi submersible tri-floater, tested here for the first time. The turbine is a model scale version...... of the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine, which, also for the first time, is tested with active blade pitch control. The tests focus on the effects of aerodynamic damping and interaction effects between the wind forcing, wave forcing and the blade pitch control algorithm. Special focus is devoted...... to the instability of the platform pitch natural mode, that can occur if a standard land-based controller is applied....

  18. Zero Information in the Two-Sample Mixed Proportional Hazards Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, Chris A.J.; Lenstra, Andries J.

    2000-01-01

    The mixed proportional hazards model generalizes the Cox model by incorporating a random effect. In the case of two samples, it is chiefly determined by a triple consisting of a number representing the treatment effect, the integrated base-line hazard, and the distribution of the unobserved random

  19. Nonspherical Radiation Driven Wind Models Applied to Be Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arauxo, F. X.

    1990-11-01

    ABSTRACT. In this work we present a model for the structure of a radiatively driven wind in the meridional plane of a hot star. Rotation effects and simulation of viscous forces were included in the motion equations. The line radiation force is considered with the inclusion of the finite disk correction in self-consistent computations which also contain gravity darkening as well as distortion of the star by rotation. An application to a typical BlV star leads to mass-flux ratios between equator and pole of the order of 10 and mass loss rates in the range 5.l0 to Mo/yr. Our envelope models are flattened towards the equator and the wind terminal velocities in that region are rather high (1000 Km/s). However, in the region near the star the equatorial velocity field is dominated by rotation. RESUMEN. Se presenta un modelo de la estructura de un viento empujado radiativamente en el plano meridional de una estrella caliente. Se incluyeron en las ecuaciones de movimiento los efectos de rotaci6n y la simulaci6n de fuerzas viscosas. Se consider6 la fuerza de las lineas de radiaci6n incluyendo la correcci6n de disco finito en calculos autoconsistentes los cuales incluyen oscurecimiento gravitacional asi como distorsi6n de la estrella por rotaci6n. La aplicaci6n a una estrella tipica BlV lleva a cocientes de flujo de masa entre el ecuador y el polo del orden de 10 de perdida de masa en el intervalo 5.l0 a 10 Mo/ano. Nuestros modelos de envolvente estan achatados hacia el ecuador y las velocidads terminales del viento en esa regi6n son bastante altas (1000 Km/s). Sin embargo, en la regi6n cercana a la estrella el campo de velocidad ecuatorial esta dominado por la rotaci6n. Key words: STARS-BE -- STARS-WINDS

  20. Fault diagnostics in power transformer model winding for different alpha values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Kusumadevi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Transient overvoltages appearing at line terminal of power transformer HV windings can cause failure of winding insulation. The failure can be from winding to ground or between turns or sections of winding. In most of the cases, failure from winding to ground can be detected by changes in the wave shape of surge voltage appearing at line terminal. However, detection of insulation failure between turns may be difficult due to intricacies involved in identifications of faults. In this paper, simulation investigations carried out on a power transformer model winding for identifying faults between turns of winding has been reported. The power transformer HV winding has been represented by 8 sections, 16 sections and 24 sections. Neutral current waveform has been analyzed for same model winding represented by different number of sections. The values of α (‘α’ value is the square root of total ground capacitance to total series capacitance of winding considered for windings are 5, 10 and 20. Standard lightning impulse voltage (1.2/50 μs wave shape have been considered for analysis. Computer simulations have been carried out using software PSPICE version 10.0. Neutral current and frequency response analysis methods have been used for identification of faults within sections of transformer model winding.

  1. Modelling the costs of natural hazards in games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru-Dan, M.

    2012-04-01

    City are looked for today, including a development at the University of Torino called SimTorino, which simulates the development of the city in the next 20 years. The connection to another games genre as video games, the board games, will be investigated, since there are games on construction and reconstruction of a cathedral and its tower and a bridge in an urban environment of the middle ages based on the two novels of Ken Follett, "Pillars of the Earth" and "World Without End" and also more recent games, such as "Urban Sprawl" or the Romanian game "Habitat", dealing with the man-made hazard of demolition. A review of these games will be provided based on first hand playing experience. In games like "World without End" or "Pillars of the Earth", just like in the recently popular games of Zynga on social networks, construction management is done through providing "building" an item out of stylised materials, such as "stone", "sand" or more specific ones as "nail". Such approach could be used also for retrofitting buildings for earthquakes, in the series of "upgrade", not just for extension as it is currently in games, and this is what our research is about. "World without End" includes a natural disaster not so analysed today but which was judged by the author as the worst of manhood: the Black Death. The Black Death has effects and costs as well, not only modelled through action cards, but also on the built environment, by buildings remaining empty. On the other hand, games such as "Habitat" rely on role playing, which has been recently recognised as a way to bring games theory to decision making through the so-called contribution of drama, a way to solve conflicts through balancing instead of weighting, and thus related to Analytic Hierarchy Process. The presentation aims to also give hints on how to design a game for the problem of earthquake retrofit, translating the aims of the actors in such a process into role playing. Games are also employed in teaching of urban

  2. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-04-01

    Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

  3. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A.D.; Iov, F.; Soerensen, Poul.; Cutululis, N.; Jauch, C.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2007-08-15

    This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risoe-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database built-op and developed during several national research projects, carried out at Risoe DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy and Aalborg University, in the period 2001-2007. The overall objective of these projects was to create a wind turbine model database able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. The main attention in the report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of the following wind turbine concepts: (1) Fixed speed active stall wind turbine concept (2) Variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept (3) Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine

  4. Do regional weather models contribute to better wind power forecasts? A few Norwegian case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bremnes, John Bjørnar; Giebel, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    In most operational wind power forecasting systems statistical methods are applied to map wind forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models into wind power forecasts. NWP models are complex mathematical models of the atmosphere that divide the earth’s surface into a grid. The spatial...... resolution of this grid determines how accurate meteorological processes can be modeled and thereby also limits forecast quality. In this study, two global and four regional operational NWP models with spatial horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 to 32 km were applied to make wind power forecasts up to 66...

  5. A simplified model predicting the weight of the load carrying beam in a wind turbine blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard

    2016-01-01

    Based on a simplified beam model, the loads, stresses and deflections experienced by a wind turbine blade of a given length is estimated. Due to the simplicity of the model used, the model is well suited for work investigating scaling effects of wind turbine blades. Presently, the model is used t...

  6. Modeling and simulation of matrix converter for wind power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masood, F.; Mahmood, T.; Choudhry, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a matrix converter structure is proposed which is suitable for wind power generation applications. The matrix converter (MC) is the most general converter type in the family of AC-AC converters. It is a single-stage converter which has an array of m x n bidirectional power switches to connect, directly, an m- phase voltage source to an n-Phase load. It does not have any DC-link circuit and does not need any large energy storage elements. The key element in a matrix converter is the fully controlled four quadrant bidirectional switch, which allows highfrequency operation. The proposed converter uses MOSFETs as bidirectional switches. The model has been implemented using MATLAB/SIMULINK. The results obtained are presented. The waveforms for input current and output voltage are sinusoidal with very low total harmonic distortion (THD). Low THD is an indication that the model is suitable for wind power generation applications. The simulation results confirm the reduction of conversion losses by 10% to 12% as compared to conventional two stage converters thereby increasing the overall conversion efficiency. The MOSFETs which have been used as switching devices have four to five times more switching frequency as compared to IGBTs thus improving the resulting wave shapes. (author)

  7. Slow Solar Wind: Observable Characteristics for Constraining Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofman, L.; Abbo, L.; Antiochos, S. K.; Hansteen, V. H.; Harra, L.; Ko, Y. K.; Lapenta, G.; Li, B.; Riley, P.; Strachan, L.; von Steiger, R.; Wang, Y. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Slow Solar Wind (SSW) origin is an open issue in the post SOHO era and forms a major objective for planned future missions such as the Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus.Results from spacecraft data, combined with theoretical modeling, have helped to investigate many aspects of the SSW. Fundamental physical properties of the coronal plasma have been derived from spectroscopic and imaging remote-sensing data and in-situ data, and these results have provided crucial insights for a deeper understanding of the origin and acceleration of the SSW.Advances models of the SSW in coronal streamers and other structures have been developed using 3D MHD and multi-fluid equations.Nevertheless, there are still debated questions such as:What are the source regions of SSW? What are their contributions to the SSW?Which is the role of the magnetic topology in corona for the origin, acceleration and energy deposition of SSW?Which are the possible acceleration and heating mechanisms for the SSW?The aim of this study is to present the insights on the SSW origin and formationarisen during the discussions at the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) by the Team entitled ''Slowsolar wind sources and acceleration mechanisms in the corona'' held in Bern (Switzerland) in March2014--2015. The attached figure will be presented to summarize the different hypotheses of the SSW formation.

  8. A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    factors are calculated. Secondly, the meteorological data are classified into several states using an improved Fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm. Then the Markov chain is used to model the chronological characteristics of meteorological states and wind speed. The proposed model was proved to be more accurate...

  9. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca Daniela; Iov, F.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risø-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database...... speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept 3. Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies......, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine concepts, their performance in normal or fault operation being assessed and discussed by means of simulations. The described control...

  10. Wind Power Curve Modeling Using Statistical Models: An Investigation of Atmospheric Input Variables at a Flat and Complex Terrain Wind Farm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bulaevskaya, V. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Irons, Z. [Enel Green Power North America, Andover, MA (United States); Qualley, G. [Infigen Energy, Dallas, TX (United States); Newman, J. F. [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Miller, W. O. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-09-28

    The goal of our FY15 project was to explore the use of statistical models and high-resolution atmospheric input data to develop more accurate prediction models for turbine power generation. We modeled power for two operational wind farms in two regions of the country. The first site is a 235 MW wind farm in Northern Oklahoma with 140 GE 1.68 turbines. Our second site is a 38 MW wind farm in the Altamont Pass Region of Northern California with 38 Mitsubishi 1 MW turbines. The farms are very different in topography, climatology, and turbine technology; however, both occupy high wind resource areas in the U.S. and are representative of typical wind farms found in their respective areas.

  11. Eolian Modeling System: Predicting Windblown Dust Hazards in Battlefield Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-03

    l=ðlþ1Þ1 CAþ yr 1 CA 21 CCA 1=2 . ð14Þ In many cases of interest, including the Soda Lake example described below, the values of the incomplete gamma...the wind velocity profile above a rough surface is a function of the aerodynamic roughness length, which, during sal tation, is a function of both

  12. A non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Pircalabu, Anca

    2018-01-01

    The recent introduction of wind power futures written on the German wind power production index has brought with it new interesting challenges in terms of modeling and pricing. Some particularities of this product are the strong seasonal component embedded in the underlying, the fact that the wind...... index is bounded from both above and below, and also that the futures are settled against a synthetically generated spot index. Here, we consider the non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) in the context of modeling the wind power production...... index. We discuss the properties of the model and estimation of the model parameters. Further, the model allows for an analytical formula for pricing wind power futures. We provide an empirical study, where the model is calibrated to 37 years of German wind power production index that is synthetically...

  13. Investigation of transient models and performances for a doubly fed wind turbine under a grid fault

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, M.; Zhao, B.; Li, H.

    2011-01-01

    of the grid-side converter and the rotor-side converter of DFIG. Secondly, the transient performances of the presented doubly fed wind turbine under a grid fault were compared and evaluated with different equivalent models, parameters and initial operational conditions. And thirdly, the effects of the active......In order to investigate the impacts of the integration of wind farms into utilities network, it is necessary to analyze the transient performances of wind turbine generation systems (WTGS) with the appropriate transient models. According to the grid code requirements for a wind turbine with doubly...... trip time. Firstly, the different mathematical models of the doubly fed wind turbine were presented, including the electromagnetic transient models of DFIG, a one-mass lumped model, a two-mass shaft flexible model of the wind turbine drive train system, and the power decoupling control strategies...

  14. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A.C.; Jauch, C.; Soerensen, P.; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2003-12-01

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. However, the main attention in this report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of two wind turbine concepts: 1. Active stall wind turbine with induction generator 2. Variable speed, variable pitch wind turbine with doubly fed induction generator. These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. For both these two concepts, control strategies are developed and implemented, their performance assessed and discussed by means of simulations. (au)

  15. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sloughter, J. M; Gneiting, Tilmann; Raftery, Adrian E

    2008-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are becoming critical as interest grows in wind as a clean and renewable source of energy, in addition to a wide range of other uses, from aviation to recreational boating...

  16. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2012-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is ...

  17. Modelling of environmental and climatic problems: Wind and water erosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aslan, Z.

    2004-01-01

    Magnitude of wind and water erosion mainly depend on wind velocity, rainfall rate, slope and soil characteristics. The main purpose of this lecture is to define the role of small, meso and large scale phenomena (local and synoptic fluctuations) on water and wind erosion. These lecture notes present some results on wind speed simulation and seasonal fluctuations of water deficit for the selected station in different erosion risque and transition regions of Turkey. (author)

  18. Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

    2014-06-01

    Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical "downscaling" of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations.

  19. Results of verification and investigation of wind velocity field forecast. Verification of wind velocity field forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, Takeshi; Kayano, Mitsunaga; Kikuchi, Hideo; Abe, Takeo; Saga, Kyoji

    1995-01-01

    In Environmental Radioactivity Research Institute, the verification and investigation of the wind velocity field forecast model 'EXPRESS-1' have been carried out since 1991. In fiscal year 1994, as the general analysis, the validity of weather observation data, the local features of wind field, and the validity of the positions of monitoring stations were investigated. The EXPRESS which adopted 500 m mesh so far was improved to 250 m mesh, and the heightening of forecast accuracy was examined, and the comparison with another wind velocity field forecast model 'SPEEDI' was carried out. As the results, there are the places where the correlation with other points of measurement is high and low, and it was found that for the forecast of wind velocity field, by excluding the data of the points with low correlation or installing simplified observation stations to take their data in, the forecast accuracy is improved. The outline of the investigation, the general analysis of weather observation data and the improvements of wind velocity field forecast model and forecast accuracy are reported. (K.I.)

  20. A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman; Shoaeifar, Nasser; Shoaeifar, Parva

    2018-03-01

    The evaluation of evidence provided by geological studies and historical catalogs indicates that in some seismic regions and faults, multiple large earthquakes occur in cluster. Then, the occurrences of large earthquakes confront with quiescence and only the small-to-moderate earthquakes take place. Clustering of large earthquakes is the most distinguishable departure from the assumption of constant hazard of random occurrence of earthquakes in conventional seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, a time-dependent recurrence model is proposed to consider a series of large earthquakes that occurs in clusters. The model is flexible enough to better reflect the quasi-periodic behavior of large earthquakes with long-term clustering, which can be used in time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with engineering purposes. In this model, the time-dependent hazard results are estimated by a hazard function which comprises three parts. A decreasing hazard of last large earthquake cluster and an increasing hazard of the next large earthquake cluster, along with a constant hazard of random occurrence of small-to-moderate earthquakes. In the final part of the paper, the time-dependent seismic hazard of the New Madrid Seismic Zone at different time intervals has been calculated for illustrative purpose.

  1. Probabilistic wind power forecasting with online model selection and warped gaussian process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kou, Peng; Liang, Deliang; Gao, Feng; Gao, Lin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A new online ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. • Quantifying the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power. • Online model selection that tracks the time-varying characteristic of wind generation. • Dynamically altering the input features. • Recursive update of base models. - Abstract: Based on the online model selection and the warped Gaussian process (WGP), this paper presents an ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. This model provides the non-Gaussian predictive distributions, which quantify the non-Gaussian uncertainties associated with wind power. In order to follow the time-varying characteristics of wind generation, multiple time dependent base forecasting models and an online model selection strategy are established, thus adaptively selecting the most probable base model for each prediction. WGP is employed as the base model, which handles the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power series. Furthermore, a regime switch strategy is designed to modify the input feature set dynamically, thereby enhancing the adaptiveness of the model. In an online learning framework, the base models should also be time adaptive. To achieve this, a recursive algorithm is introduced, thus permitting the online updating of WGP base models. The proposed model has been tested on the actual data collected from both single and aggregated wind farms

  2. Reliability model for offshore wind farms; Paalidelighedsmodel for havvindmoelleparker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, P.; Lundtang Paulsen, J.; Lybech Toegersen, M.; Krogh, T. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Raben, N.; Donovan, M.H.; Joergensen, L. [SEAS (Denmark); Winther-Jensen, M.

    2002-05-01

    A method for the prediction of the mean availability for an offshore windfarm has been developed. Factors comprised are the reliability of the single turbine, the strategy for preventive maintenance the climate, the number of repair teams, and the type of boats available for transport. The mean availability is defined as the sum of the fractions of time, where each turbine is available for production. The project has been carried out together with SEAS Wind Technique, and their site Roedsand has been chosen as the example of the work. A climate model has been created based on actual site measurements. The prediction of the availability is done with a Monte Carlo-simulation. Software was developed for the preparation of the climate model from weather measurements as well as for the Monte carlo-simulation. Three examples have been simulated, one with guessed parametres, and the other two with parameters more close to the Roedsand case. (au)

  3. Comparison of Model Output of Wind and Wave Parameters with Spaceborne Altimeter Measurements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hwang, Paul

    1998-01-01

    .... While comparisons with point measurements from discrete and sparsely distributed wave buoys provide some measure of statistical confidence, the spatial distribution of the modeled wind and wave...

  4. Numerical Study of Wind Turbine Wake Modeling Based on a Actuator Surface Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Huai-yang; Xu, Chang; Han, Xing Xing

    2017-01-01

    on the basis of actuator line model(ALM). By using ASM, the model of turbine can be simplified and the quantity of grids and computing time can be significantly reduced. A linear distribution model and a ASM Grid identification method are presented. This paper compares the ASM with ALM by computing both near...... and far wake of a Nibe A wind turbine, which combines wake velocity, turbulent intensity and vortex structure. Results show that ASM has better prediction accuracy and verify it's feasibility on numerical simulation of wind turbine wake....

  5. A Hybrid Wind-Farm Parametrization for Mesoscale and Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yang; Archer, Cristina L.

    2018-04-01

    To better understand the potential impact of wind farms on weather and climate at the regional to global scales, a new hybrid wind-farm parametrization is proposed for mesoscale and climate models. The proposed parametrization is a hybrid model because it is not based on physical processes or conservation laws, but on the multiple linear regression of the results of large-eddy simulations (LES) with the geometric properties of the wind-farm layout (e.g., the blockage ratio and blockage distance). The innovative aspect is that each wind turbine is treated individually based on its position in the farm and on the wind direction by predicting the velocity upstream of each turbine. The turbine-induced forces and added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) are first derived analytically and then implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized simulations of the offshore Lillgrund wind farm are conducted. The wind-speed deficit and TKE predicted with the hybrid model are in excellent agreement with those from the LES results, while the wind-power production estimated with the hybrid model is within 10% of that observed. Three additional wind farms with larger inter-turbine spacing than at Lillgrund are also considered, and a similar agreement with LES results is found, proving that the hybrid parametrization works well with any wind farm regardless of the spacing between turbines. These results indicate the wind-turbine position, wind direction, and added TKE are essential in accounting for the wind-farm effects on the surroundings, for which the hybrid wind-farm parametrization is a promising tool.

  6. Effects of Freestream Turbulence in a Model Wind Turbine Wake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaqing Jin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The flow structure in the wake of a model wind turbine is explored under negligible and high turbulence in the freestream region of a wind tunnel at R e ∼ 7 × 10 4 . Attention is placed on the evolution of the integral scale and the contribution of the large-scale motions from the background flow. Hotwire anemometry was used to obtain the streamwise velocity at various streamwise and spanwise locations. The pre-multiplied spectral difference of the velocity fluctuations between the two cases shows a significant energy contribution from the background turbulence on scales larger than the rotor diameter. The integral scale along the rotor axis is found to grow linearly with distance, independent of the incoming turbulence levels. This scale appears to reach that of the incoming flow in the high turbulence case at x / d ∼ 35–40. The energy contribution from the turbine to the large-scale flow structures in the low turbulence case increases monotonically with distance. Its growth rate is reduced past x / d ∼ 6–7. There, motions larger than the rotor contribute ∼ 50 % of the total energy, suggesting that the population of large-scale motions is more intense in the intermediate field. In contrast, the wake in the high incoming turbulence is quickly populated with large-scale motions and plateau at x / d ∼ 3 .

  7. Application of aeroacoustic models to design of wind turbine rotors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglsang, P.; Madsen, H.A. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    A design method is presented for wind turbine rotors. The design process is split into overall design of the rotor and detailed design of the blade tip. A numerical optimization tool is used together with a semi-empirical noise prediction code for overall rotor design. The noise prediction code is validated with measurements and good agreement is obtained both on the total noise emission and on the sensitivity to wind speed, tip pitch angle and tip speed. A design study for minimum noise emission for a 300 kW rotor shows that the total sound power level can be reduced by 3 dB(A) without loss in energy production and the energy production can be increased by 2% without increase in the total noise. Detailed CFD calculations are subsequently done to resolve the blade tip flow. The characteristics of the general flow and the tip vortex are found, and the relevant parameters for the aeroacoustic models are derived for a sharp rectangular tip. (au) 16 refs.

  8. Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

  9. Coordinated Voltage Control of a Wind Farm based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an autonomous wind farm voltage controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The reactive power compensation and voltage regulation devices of the wind farm include Static Var Compensators (SVCs), Static Var Generators (SVGs), Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) and On...... are calculated based on an analytical method to improve the computation efficiency and overcome the convergence problem. Two control modes are designed for both voltage violated and normal operation conditions. A wind farm with 20 wind turbines was used to conduct case studies to verify the proposed coordinated...

  10. Application of a ray theory model to the prediction of noise emissions from isolated wind turbines and wind parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prospathopoulos, John M.; Voutsinas, Spyros G.

    2006-01-01

    Various propagation models have been developed to estimate the level of noise near residential areas. Predictions and measurements have proven that proper modelling of the propagation medium is of particular importance. In the present work, calculations are performed using a ray theory methodology. The ray trajectory and transport equations are derived from the linear acoustics equations for a moving medium in three dimensions. Ground and atmospheric absorption, wave refraction and diffraction and atmospheric turbulence are taken into account by introducing appropriate coefficients in the equations. In the case of a wind turbine (W/T) it is assumed that noise is produced by a point source located at the rotor centre. Given the sound power spectrum, the noise spectrum at the receiver is obtained by solving the axisymmetric propagation problem. The procedure consists of (a) finding the eigenrays, (b) calculating the energy losses along the eigenrays and (c) synthesizing the sound pressure level (SPL) by superposing the contributions of the eigenrays. In the case of a wind park the total SPL is calculated by superposing the contributions of all W/Ts. Application is made to five cases of isolated W/Ts in terrains of varying complexity. In flat or even smooth terrain the predictions agree well with the measurements. In complex terrain the predictions can be considered satisfactory, taking into account the assumption of constant wind velocity profile. Application to a wind park shows clearly the influence of the terrain on the wind velocity and consequently on the SPL. (Author)

  11. Taxonomic analysis of perceived risk: modeling individual and group perceptions within homogeneous hazard domains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraus, N.N.; Slovic, P.

    1988-01-01

    Previous studies of risk perception have typically focused on the mean judgments of a group of people regarding the riskiness (or safety) of a diverse set of hazardous activities, substances, and technologies. This paper reports the results of two studies that take a different path. Study 1 investigated whether models within a single technological domain were similar to previous models based on group means and diverse hazards. Study 2 created a group taxonomy of perceived risk for only one technological domain, railroads, and examined whether the structure of that taxonomy corresponded with taxonomies derived from prior studies of diverse hazards. Results from Study 1 indicated that the importance of various risk characteristics in determining perceived risk differed across individuals and across hazards, but not so much as to invalidate the results of earlier studies based on group means and diverse hazards. In Study 2, the detailed analysis of railroad hazards produced a structure that had both important similarities to, and dissimilarities from, the structure obtained in prior research with diverse hazard domains. The data also indicated that railroad hazards are really quite diverse, with some approaching nuclear reactors in their perceived seriousness. These results suggest that information about the diversity of perceptions within a single domain of hazards could provide valuable input to risk-management decisions

  12. Advanced Modeling System for Optimization of Wind Farm Layout and Wind Turbine Sizing Using a Multi-Level Extended Pattern Search Algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DuPont, Bryony; Cagan, Jonathan; Moriarty, Patrick

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents a system of modeling advances that can be applied in the computational optimization of wind plants. These modeling advances include accurate cost and power modeling, partial wake interaction, and the effects of varying atmospheric stability. To validate the use of this advanced modeling system, it is employed within an Extended Pattern Search (EPS)-Multi-Agent System (MAS) optimization approach for multiple wind scenarios. The wind farm layout optimization problem involves optimizing the position and size of wind turbines such that the aerodynamic effects of upstream turbines are reduced, which increases the effective wind speed and resultant power at each turbine. The EPS-MAS optimization algorithm employs a profit objective, and an overarching search determines individual turbine positions, with a concurrent EPS-MAS determining the optimal hub height and rotor diameter for each turbine. Two wind cases are considered: (1) constant, unidirectional wind, and (2) three discrete wind speeds and varying wind directions, each of which have a probability of occurrence. Results show the advantages of applying the series of advanced models compared to previous application of an EPS with less advanced models to wind farm layout optimization, and imply best practices for computational optimization of wind farms with improved accuracy.

  13. A simple GMM estimator for the semi-parametric mixed proportional hazard model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijwaard, G.E.; Ridder, G.; Woutersen, T.

    2013-01-01

    Ridder and Woutersen (Ridder, G., and T. Woutersen. 2003. “The Singularity of the Efficiency Bound of the Mixed Proportional Hazard Model.” Econometrica 71: 1579–1589) have shown that under a weak condition on the baseline hazard, there exist root-N consistent estimators of the parameters in a

  14. Wind Speed Estimation and Parametrization of Wake Models for Downregulated Offshore Wind Farms within the scope of PossPOW Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Göçmen Bozkurt, Tuhfe; Giebel, Gregor; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2014-01-01

    With increasing installed capacity, wind farms are requested to downregulate more frequently, especially in the offshore environment. Determination and verification of possible (or available) power of downregulated offshore wind farms are the aims of the PossPOW project (see PossPOW.dtu.dk). Two ...... period. The re-calibrated model has to be further parametrized to include dynamic effects such as wind direction variability and meandering also considering different averaging time scales before implemented in full scale wind farms....

  15. Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erasmo Cadenas

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Two on step ahead wind speed forecasting models were compared. A univariate model was developed using a linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. This method’s performance is well studied for a large number of prediction problems. The other is a multivariate model developed using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (NARX. This uses the variables: barometric pressure, air temperature, wind direction and solar radiation or relative humidity, as well as delayed wind speed. Both models were developed from two databases from two sites: an hourly average measurements database from La Mata, Oaxaca, Mexico, and a ten minute average measurements database from Metepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. The main objective was to compare the impact of the various meteorological variables on the performance of the multivariate model of wind speed prediction with respect to the high performance univariate linear model. The NARX model gave better results with improvements on the ARIMA model of between 5.5% and 10. 6% for the hourly database and of between 2.3% and 12.8% for the ten minute database for mean absolute error and mean squared error, respectively.

  16. Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

  17. Statistical meandering wake model and its application to yaw-angle optimisation of wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Emil; Tranberg, Bo; Herp, Jürgen

    2017-01-01

    wakes are treated as independently and identically distributed random variables. When carefully calibrated to the Nysted wind farm, the ensemble average of the statistical model produces the same wind-direction dependence of the power efficiency as obtained from the standard Jensen model. Upon using...... the JWM to perform a yaw-angle optimisation of wind-farm power output, we find an optimisation gain of 6.7% for the Nysted wind farm when compared to zero yaw angles and averaged over all wind directions. When applying the obtained JWM-based optimised yaw angles to the SMWM, the ensemble-averaged gain......The wake produced by a wind turbine is dynamically meandering and of rather narrow nature. Only when looking at large time averages, the wake appears to be static and rather broad, and is then well described by simple engineering models like the Jensen wake model (JWM). We generalise the latter...

  18. A discrete force allocation algorithm for modelling wind turbines in computational fluid dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Sørensen, Niels N.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an algorithm for allocating discrete forces in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Discrete forces are useful in wind energy CFD. They are used as an approximation of the wind turbine blades’ action on the wind (actuator disc/line), to model forests and to model turbulent inf...... applicable in other fields of CFD that use discrete body forces. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....... inflows. Many CFD codes are designed with collocated variables layout. Although this approach has many attractive features, it can generate a numerical decoupling between the pressure and the velocities. This issue is addressed by the Rhie–Chow control volume momentum interpolation. However......This paper describes an algorithm for allocating discrete forces in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Discrete forces are useful in wind energy CFD. They are used as an approximation of the wind turbine blades’ action on the wind (actuator disc/line), to model forests and to model turbulent...

  19. Adaptive modelling and forecasting of offshore wind power fluctuations with Markov-switching autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    optimized is based on penalized maximum-likelihood, with exponential forgetting of past observations. MSAR models are then employed for 1-step-ahead point forecasting of 10-minute resolution time-series of wind power at two large offshore wind farms. They are favourably compared against persistence and Auto......Wind power production data at temporal resolutions of a few minutes exhibits successive periods with fluctuations of various dynamic nature and magnitude, which cannot be explained (so far) by the evolution of some explanatory variable. Our proposal is to capture this regime-switching behaviour......Regressive (AR) models. It is finally shown that the main interest of MSAR models lies in their ability to generate interval/density forecasts of significantly higher skill....

  20. Adaptive modelling and forecasting of offshore wind power fluctuations with Markov-switching autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    optimized is based on penalized maximum likelihood, with exponential forgetting of past observations. MSAR models are then employed for one-step-ahead point forecasting of 10 min resolution time series of wind power at two large offshore wind farms. They are favourably compared against persistence......Wind power production data at temporal resolutions of a few minutes exhibit successive periods with fluctuations of various dynamic nature and magnitude, which cannot be explained (so far) by the evolution of some explanatory variable. Our proposal is to capture this regime-switching behaviour...... and autoregressive models. It is finally shown that the main interest of MSAR models lies in their ability to generate interval/density forecasts of significantly higher skill....

  1. Source Surface Models and Their Impact on Solar Wind Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, I. V.; Roussev, I. I.; Gombosi, T. I.; Liu, Y.

    2005-05-01

    To perform realistic modeling of the important processes in the solar corona, such as coronal mass ejections, flares, as well as the acceleration of solar particles, one needs to incorporate into the physical models any complicated pattern of the coronal magnetic field. The coronal magnetic field topology is determined by the helmet streamers (with closed field lines), the coronal holes (with open field lines) as well as the fine, but crucially important, details of the small-scale active regions. The standard practice to recover the global 3-D structure of the solar magnetic field from observations is to use the source surface model, in which the field is assumed to be potential, i.e., current-free. This approach ignores any volumetric current there may be present in the corona, and also neglects the existence of the equatorial current sheet, which starts from a height of 3-5 Rs above the solar surface. The fully potential solar magnetic field would have only closed field lines, not allowing for the solar wind to exist. In our Solar Corona model, incorparated into the Space Weather Modelling Framework, the solar magnetic field is split into two constituitive parts: one potential part which is recovered from the magnetic field data (e.g., from WSO, MWO, or MDI data) using the source surface method; and, one other non-potential part. For the potential field, we keep only the spherical harmonics decreasing with distance from the Sun or, equivalently, we use a very large value of the source surface radius. For the non-potential field, we solve the time-dependent induction equation with zero boundary condition at the solar surface. The full set of conservation laws for the MHD system is solved numerically using the BATS-R-US code. To power the solar wind in our model, we use a phenomenological turbulence model described in an earlier paper. The resulting steady-state MHD solution includes the well-resolved current sheet and helmet streamers. The modeled structure of

  2. Computer models used to support cleanup decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; DePhillips, M.P.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1992-07-01

    Massive efforts are underway to cleanup hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the US To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no Agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) Identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes; and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study

  3. Computer models used to support cleanup decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; DePhillips, M.P.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1992-07-01

    Massive efforts are underway to cleanup hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the US To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no Agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) Identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes; and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study.

  4. The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

  5. Static Aeroelastic Scaling and Analysis of a Sub-Scale Flexible Wing Wind Tunnel Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting, Eric; Lebofsky, Sonia; Nguyen, Nhan; Trinh, Khanh

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to the development of a scaled wind tunnel model for static aeroelastic similarity with a full-scale wing model. The full-scale aircraft model is based on the NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) with flexible wing structures referred to as the Elastically Shaped Aircraft Concept (ESAC). The baseline stiffness of the ESAC wing represents a conventionally stiff wing model. Static aeroelastic scaling is conducted on the stiff wing configuration to develop the wind tunnel model, but additional tailoring is also conducted such that the wind tunnel model achieves a 10% wing tip deflection at the wind tunnel test condition. An aeroelastic scaling procedure and analysis is conducted, and a sub-scale flexible wind tunnel model based on the full-scale's undeformed jig-shape is developed. Optimization of the flexible wind tunnel model's undeflected twist along the span, or pre-twist or wash-out, is then conducted for the design test condition. The resulting wind tunnel model is an aeroelastic model designed for the wind tunnel test condition.

  6. Progress in IEC 61400-27. Electrical simulation models for wind power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, Poul [DTU Wind Energy, Roskilde (Denmark); Andresen, Bjoern; Bech, John [Siemens Wind Power, Brande (Denmark). Electrical Systems and Generators; Fortmann, Jens [REpower Systems AG, Osterroenfeld (Germany). Wind Power Plant; Pourbeik, Pouyan [Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States). Grid Operations and Planning

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents the status of the ongoing work in IEC Technical Committee 88 Working Group 27 (TC88 WG27) developing a standard IEC 61400-27 for ''Electrical simulation models for wind power generation''. The purpose of this standardization work is to define generic simulation models for wind turbines (part 1) and wind power plants (part 2), which are intended for short-term power system stability analyses. WG27 submitted the first CD of Part 1 in December 2012. The CD describes generic wind turbine models and a procedure for validation of wind turbine models. The generic model description consists of a general model structure intending to cover existing as well as future types of wind turbines, and specific fundamental frequency positive sequence models for the four wind turbine types which are widely used today. The validation procedure can be applied to the generic models specified in the standard, or to manufacturer specific fundamental frequency models. The paper will provide a general description of the wind turbine models, a more detailed description of type 4 models, a description of the validation procedure and finally a validation example. Part 2 is in an early stage of development. IEC has approved the New Work Item Proposal (NWIP) of part 2, and this work has officially started 1 October 2012. (orig.)

  7. Field Validation of IEC 61400-27-1 Wind Generation Type 3 Model with Plant Power Factor Controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Göksu, Ömer; Altin, Müfit; Fortmann, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Generic electrical simulation models of wind power generation have been developed as standards, such as the IEC 61400-27-1, to be used by wind industry, system operators, and academia for power system stability studies. In this paper, the IEC type 3 wind turbine model with wind turbine level...

  8. Numerical modeling of wind turbine aerodynamic noise in the time domain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seunghoon; Lee, Seungmin; Lee, Soogab

    2013-02-01

    Aerodynamic noise from a wind turbine is numerically modeled in the time domain. An analytic trailing edge noise model is used to determine the unsteady pressure on the blade surface. The far-field noise due to the unsteady pressure is calculated using the acoustic analogy theory. By using a strip theory approach, the two-dimensional noise model is applied to rotating wind turbine blades. The numerical results indicate that, although the operating and atmospheric conditions are identical, the acoustical characteristics of wind turbine noise can be quite different with respect to the distance and direction from the wind turbine.

  9. Modeling and analysis of doubly fed induction generator wind energy systems

    CERN Document Server

    Fan, Lingling

    2015-01-01

    Wind Energy Systems: Modeling, Analysis and Control with DFIG provides key information on machine/converter modelling strategies based on space vectors, complex vector, and further frequency-domain variables. It includes applications that focus on wind energy grid integration, with analysis and control explanations with examples. For those working in the field of wind energy integration examining the potential risk of stability is key, this edition looks at how wind energy is modelled, what kind of control systems are adopted, how it interacts with the grid, as well as suitable study

  10. Calibrated Blade-Element/Momentum Theory Aerodynamic Model of the MARIN Stock Wind Turbine: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goupee, A.; Kimball, R.; de Ridder, E. J.; Helder, J.; Robertson, A.; Jonkman, J.

    2015-04-02

    In this paper, a calibrated blade-element/momentum theory aerodynamic model of the MARIN stock wind turbine is developed and documented. The model is created using open-source software and calibrated to closely emulate experimental data obtained by the DeepCwind Consortium using a genetic algorithm optimization routine. The provided model will be useful for those interested in validating interested in validating floating wind turbine numerical simulators that rely on experiments utilizing the MARIN stock wind turbine—for example, the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30’s Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continued, with Correlation project.

  11. Impact of wind power in autonomous power systems—power fluctuations—modelling and control issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Margaris, Ioannis D.; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2011-01-01

    technologies, power system protection and load. Analytical models for wind farms with three different wind turbine technologies, namely Doubly Fed Induction Generator, Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator and Active Stall Induction Generator-based wind turbines, are included. Likewise, analytical models...... for diesel and steam generation plants are applied. The power grid, including speed governors, automatic voltage regulators, protection system and loads is modelled in the same platform. Results for different load and wind profile cases are being presented for the case study of the island Rhodes, in Greece...

  12. A New Analytical Model for Wind-Turbine Wakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastankhah, Majid; Porté-Agel, Fernando

    2013-04-01

    The intention of this study is to propose and validate a simple and efficient analytical model for the prediction of the wake velocity downwind of a stand-alone wind-turbine. Extensive efforts have been carried out to model the wake region analytically. One of the most popular models, proposed by Jensen, assumes a top-hat distribution of the velocity deficit at any plane perpendicular to the wake. That model has been extensively used in the literature and commercial softwares, but it has two important limitations that should be pointed out: (a) Even though this model is supposed to satisfy momentum conservation, in reality mass conservation is only used to derive it; (b) the assumption of a top-hat distribution of the velocity deficit is expected to underestimate that deficit in the center of the wake, and overestimate it near the edge of the wake. In order to overcome the above-mentioned limitations, here we propose an alternative analytical model that satisfies both mass and momentum conservation, and assumes a Gaussian distribution of the velocity deficit. For this purpose, we apply momentum and mass conservation to two different control volumes which have been previously used in the context of analytical modeling of wakes. The velocity profiles obtained with our proposed model are in good agreement with large-eddy simulation data and experimental measurements. By contrast, the top hat models, as expected, clearly underestimate the velocity deficit at the center of the wake region and overestimate it near the edge of the wake.

  13. Nonparametric Stochastic Model for Uncertainty Quantifi cation of Short-term Wind Speed Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    AL-Shehhi, A. M.; Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

    2014-12-01

    Wind energy is increasing in importance as a renewable energy source due to its potential role in reducing carbon emissions. It is a safe, clean, and inexhaustible source of energy. The amount of wind energy generated by wind turbines is closely related to the wind speed. Wind speed forecasting plays a vital role in the wind energy sector in terms of wind turbine optimal operation, wind energy dispatch and scheduling, efficient energy harvesting etc. It is also considered during planning, design, and assessment of any proposed wind project. Therefore, accurate prediction of wind speed carries a particular importance and plays significant roles in the wind industry. Many methods have been proposed in the literature for short-term wind speed forecasting. These methods are usually based on modeling historical fixed time intervals of the wind speed data and using it for future prediction. The methods mainly include statistical models such as ARMA, ARIMA model, physical models for instance numerical weather prediction and artificial Intelligence techniques for example support vector machine and neural networks. In this paper, we are interested in estimating hourly wind speed measures in United Arab Emirates (UAE). More precisely, we predict hourly wind speed using a nonparametric kernel estimation of the regression and volatility functions pertaining to nonlinear autoregressive model with ARCH model, which includes unknown nonlinear regression function and volatility function already discussed in the literature. The unknown nonlinear regression function describe the dependence between the value of the wind speed at time t and its historical data at time t -1, t - 2, … , t - d. This function plays a key role to predict hourly wind speed process. The volatility function, i.e., the conditional variance given the past, measures the risk associated to this prediction. Since the regression and the volatility functions are supposed to be unknown, they are estimated using

  14. Three Models of Wind-Gust Disturbances for the Analysis of Antenna Pointing Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawronski, W.

    2002-01-01

    This article develops and compares three wind models that are used to simulate antenna servo errors. The first model represents wind forces acting on the antenna dish, and it closely represents actual wind action. The second model represents wind gusts as torque disturbances applied to the antenna drives. The third model represents gusts acting at the antenna rate input. A wind filter introduced in this article makes the wind gusts of the third model equivalent to the gusts of the second model. The third model is of recent interest, since it is applicable to the currently developed models of the antenna closed-loop systems. Simulink models of the 34-m and 70-m antennas' closed-loop systems were developed to simulate antenna servo errors in wind gusts. The article shows that for the 34-m and 70-m antennas all three models give similar results, and that the results are comparable to the field measurements of the servo errors taken in wind.

  15. Occupational hazard evaluation model underground coal mine based on unascertained measurement theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Quanlong; Jiang, Zhongan; Sun, Yaru; Peng, Ya

    2017-05-01

    In order to study how to comprehensively evaluate the influence of several occupational hazard on miners’ physical and mental health, based on unascertained measurement theory, occupational hazard evaluation indicator system was established to make quantitative and qualitative analysis. Determining every indicator weight by information entropy and estimating the occupational hazard level by credible degree recognition criteria, the evaluation model was programmed by Visual Basic, applying the evaluation model to occupational hazard comprehensive evaluation of six posts under a coal mine, and the occupational hazard degree was graded, the evaluation results are consistent with actual situation. The results show that dust and noise is most obvious among the coal mine occupational hazard factors. Excavation face support workers are most affected, secondly, heading machine drivers, coal cutter drivers, coalface move support workers, the occupational hazard degree of these four types workers is II mild level. The occupational hazard degree of ventilation workers and safety inspection workers is I level. The evaluation model could evaluate underground coal mine objectively and accurately, and can be employed to the actual engineering.

  16. Using Bayesian Belief Networks to model volcanic hazards interaction: an application for rain-triggered lahars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Odbert, Henry; Phillips, Jeremy; Woodhouse, Mark; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner

    2016-04-01

    Quantification of volcanic hazards is a challenging task for modern volcanology. Assessing the large uncertainties involved in the hazard analysis requires the combination of volcanological data, physical and statistical models. This is a complex procedure even when taking into account only one type of volcanic hazard. However, volcanic systems are known to be multi-hazard environments where several hazardous phenomena (tephra fallout, Pyroclastic Density Currents -PDCs-, lahars, etc.) may occur whether simultaneous or sequentially. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are a flexible and powerful way of modelling uncertainty. They are statistical models that can merge information coming from data, physical models, other statistical models or expert knowledge into a unified probabilistic assessment. Therefore, they can be applied to model the interaction between different volcanic hazards in an efficient manner. In this work, we design and preliminarily parametrize a BBN with the aim of forecasting the occurrence and volume of rain-triggered lahars when considering: (1) input of pyroclastic material, in the form of tephra fallout and PDCs, over the catchments around the volcano; (2) remobilization of this material by antecedent lahar events. Input of fresh pyroclastic material can be modelled through a combination of physical models (e.g. advection-diffusion models for tephra fallout such as HAZMAP and shallow-layer continuum models for PDCs such as Titan2D) and uncertainty quantification techniques, while the remobilization efficiency can be constrained from datasets of lahar observations at different volcanoes. The applications of this kind of probabilistic multi-hazard approach can range from real-time forecasting of lahar activity to calibration of physical or statistical models (e.g. emulators) for long-term volcanic hazard assessment.

  17. Wind erosion in semiarid landscapes: Predictive models and remote sensing methods for the influence of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musick, H. Brad

    1993-01-01

    The objectives of this research are: to develop and test predictive relations for the quantitative influence of vegetation canopy structure on wind erosion of semiarid rangeland soils, and to develop remote sensing methods for measuring the canopy structural parameters that determine sheltering against wind erosion. The influence of canopy structure on wind erosion will be investigated by means of wind-tunnel and field experiments using structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments using model roughness elements to simulate plant canopies. The canopy structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments as important in determining vegetative sheltering against wind erosion will then be measured at a number of naturally vegetated field sites and compared with estimates of these variables derived from analysis of remotely sensed data.

  18. Study on optimized decision-making model of offshore wind power projects investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tian; Yang, Shangdong; Gao, Guowei; Ma, Li

    2018-02-01

    China’s offshore wind energy is of great potential and plays an important role in promoting China’s energy structure adjustment. However, the current development of offshore wind power in China is inadequate, and is much less developed than that of onshore wind power. On the basis of considering all kinds of risks faced by offshore wind power development, an optimized model of offshore wind power investment decision is established in this paper by proposing the risk-benefit assessment method. To prove the practicability of this method in improving the selection of wind power projects, python programming is used to simulate the investment analysis of a large number of projects. Therefore, the paper is dedicated to provide decision-making support for the sound development of offshore wind power industry.

  19. Description of signature scales in a floating wind turbine model wake subjected to varying turbulence intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadum, Hawwa; Rockel, Stanislav; Holling, Michael; Peinke, Joachim; Cal, Raul Bayon

    2017-11-01

    The wake behind a floating model horizontal axis wind turbine during pitch motion is investigated and compared to a fixed wind turbine wake. An experiment is conducted in an acoustic wind tunnel where hot-wire data are acquired at five downstream locations. At each downstream location, a rake of 16 hot-wires was used with placement of the probes increasing radially in the vertical, horizontal, and diagonally at 45 deg. In addition, the effect of turbulence intensity on the floating wake is examined by subjecting the wind turbine to different inflow conditions controlled through three settings in the wind tunnel grid, a passive and two active protocols, thus varying in intensity. The wakes are inspected by statistics of the point measurements, where the various length/time scales are considered. The wake characteristics for a floating wind turbine are compared to a fixed turbine, and uncovering its features; relevant as the demand for exploiting deep waters in wind energy is increasing.

  20. Wake interaction and power production of variable height model wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vested, Malene Hovgaard; Hamilton, N.; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

    2014-01-01

    Understanding wake dynamics is an ongoing research topic in wind energy, since wakes have considerable effects on the power production when wind turbines are placed in a wind farm. Wind tunnel experiments have been conducted to study the wake to wake interaction in a model wind farm in tandem...... with measurements of the extracted power. The aim is to investigate how alternating mast height influences the interaction of the wakes and the power production. Via the use of stereo-particle image velocimetry, the flow field was obtained in the first and last rows of the wind turbine array as a basis...... of comparison. It was found that downstream of the exit row wind turbine, the power was increased by 25% in the case of a staggered height configuration. This is partly due to the fact that the taller turbines reach into a flow area with a softened velocity gradient. Another aspect is that the wake downstream...

  1. Multibody Model for Planetary Gearbox of 500 kW Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Martin Felix; Pedersen, Niels Leergaard; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

    The aim of the work is to simulate the loadings in a planetary gearbox of a wind turbine using a multibody program. A realistic wind turbine gearbox of a 500 kW wind turbine is examined using turbulent inflow data. An aeroelastic model of the wind turbine has been set up using the FLEX5-code...... (industrial standard software). The FLEX5 model as well as the developed multibody code has been verified from strain gauge measurements, giving e.g. the main shaft torque, and met mast wind data measurements. The realistic measurements on both input and output variables form an excellent base for studying...... the gearbox fatigue loads, the effect of wind turbulence on the power production/output torque on the highspeed shaft and for calibration and verification of the gearbox model....

  2. Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Blahut

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal, and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy. The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R, developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland. An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise

  3. Low-order aeroelastic models of wind turbines for controller design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderby, Ivan Bergquist

    Wind turbine controllers are used to optimize the performance of wind turbines such as to reduce power variations and fatigue and extreme loads on wind turbine components. Accurate tuning and design of modern controllers must be done using low-order models that accurately captures the aeroelastic...... response of the wind turbine. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the necessary model complexity required in aeroelastic models used for controller design and to analyze and propose methods to design low-order aeroelastic wind turbine models that are suited for model-based control design...... stall using only few states. A set of reduced-order models obtained at various operating points are shown to be easily connected by interpolation and are thereby suited for gain-scheduling control design. A new method is proposed to reduce separately the number of structural and aerodynamic states...

  4. A Collision Risk Model to Predict Avian Fatalities at Wind Facilities: An Example Using Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie New

    Full Text Available Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year-1 in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4; 80th

  5. A Collision Risk Model to Predict Avian Fatalities at Wind Facilities: An Example Using Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, Leslie; Bjerre, Emily; Millsap, Brian; Otto, Mark C; Runge, Michael C

    2015-01-01

    Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year-1) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80th quantile, 6

  6. Comparison of Transient Behaviors of Wind Turbines with DFIG Considering the Shaft Flexible Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Zhe; Ye, Ren-jie; Hui, Li

    2008-01-01

    on the electrical transient performances of doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) wind turbines with different operationally states is investigated. In order to compare the transient performances of DFIG wind turbines during electrical transients, a DFIG model with simple one-mass lumped model and a two-mass shaft...

  7. Analysis of error-prone survival data under additive hazards models: measurement error effects and adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ying; Yi, Grace Y

    2016-07-01

    Covariate measurement error occurs commonly in survival analysis. Under the proportional hazards model, measurement error effects have been well studied, and various inference methods have been developed to correct for error effects under such a model. In contrast, error-contaminated survival data under the additive hazards model have received relatively less attention. In this paper, we investigate this problem by exploring measurement error effects on parameter estimation and the change of the hazard function. New insights of measurement error effects are revealed, as opposed to well-documented results for the Cox proportional hazards model. We propose a class of bias correction estimators that embraces certain existing estimators as special cases. In addition, we exploit the regression calibration method to reduce measurement error effects. Theoretical results for the developed methods are established, and numerical assessments are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of our methods.

  8. Mapping Offshore Winds Around Iceland Using Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar and Mesoscale Model Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Badger, Merete; Nawri, Nikolai

    2015-01-01

    The offshore wind climate in Iceland is examined based on satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR), coastal meteorological station measurements, and results from two atmospheric model data sets, HARMONIE and NORA10. The offshore winds in Iceland are highly influenced by the rugged coastline. Lee...... effects, gap flow, coastal barrier jets, and atmospheric gravity waves are not only observed in SAR, but are also modeled well from HARMONIE. Offshore meteorological observations are not available, but wind speed and wind direction measurements from coastal meteorological masts are found to compare well...

  9. Dynamic modeling and control of DFIG-based wind turbines under balanced network conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mehdipour, Cyrous; Hajizadeh, Amin; Mehdipour, Iman

    2016-01-01

    The performance of wind power station is researched by utilizing a detailed model which includes a wind turbine (WT), doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) and power electronic devices. In the initial stage, a comprehensive review and definition of each part of this system are presented....... Then dynamic modeling and simulation of a sample power system are carried out. The operation of a DFIG coupled with WT under balanced condition of a power grid is investigated and stationary reference frame is utilized for analysis of a wind energy conversion system. At the second step, a wind power station...

  10. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stirling, Mark; Bebbington, Mark; Brenna, Marco; Cronin, Shane; Christophersen, Annemarie; Deligne, Natalia; Hurst, Tony; Jolly, Art; Jolly, Gill; Kennedy, Ben; Kereszturi, Gabor; Lindsay, Jan; Neall, Vince; Procter, Jonathan; Rhoades, David; Scott, Brad; Shane, Phil; Smith, Ian; Smith, Richard; Wang, Ting; White, James D. L.; Wilson, Colin J. N.; Wilson, Tom

    2017-06-01

    We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g. short-term forecasting). The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  11. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Stirling

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration, and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g., short-term forecasting. The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  12. Modeling Vortex Generators in the Wind-US Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudek, Julianne C.

    2010-01-01

    A source term model which simulates the effects of vortex generators was implemented into the Wind-US Navier Stokes code. The source term added to the Navier-Stokes equations simulates the lift force which would result from a vane-type vortex generator in the flowfield. The implementation is user-friendly, requiring the user to specify only three quantities for each desired vortex generator: the range of grid points over which the force is to be applied and the planform area and angle of incidence of the physical vane. The model behavior was evaluated for subsonic flow in a rectangular duct with a single vane vortex generator, supersonic flow in a rectangular duct with a counterrotating vortex generator pair, and subsonic flow in an S-duct with 22 co-rotating vortex generators. The validation results indicate that the source term vortex generator model provides a useful tool for screening vortex generator configurations and gives comparable results to solutions computed using a gridded vane.

  13. Global Magnetospheric Simulations: coupling with ionospheric and solar wind models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenta, Giovanni; Olshevskyi, Vyacheslav; Amaya, Jorge; Deca, Jan; Markidis, Stefano; Vapirev, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    We present results on the global fully kinetic model of the magnetosphere of the Earth. The simulations are based on the iPic3D code [1] that treats kinetically all plasma species solving implicitly the equations of motion for electrons and ions, coupled with the Maxwell equations. We present results of our simulations and discuss the coupling at the inner boundary near the Earth with models of the ionosphere and at the outer boundary with models of the arriving solar wind. The results are part of the activities of the Swiff FP7 project: www.swiff.eu [1] Stefano Markidis, Giovanni Lapenta, Rizwan-uddin, Multi-scale simulations of plasma with iPIC3D, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Volume 80, Issue 7, March 2010, Pages 1509-1519, ISSN 0378-4754, 10.1016/j.matcom.2009.08.038 [2] Giovanni Lapenta, Particle simulations of space weather, Journal of Computational Physics, Volume 231, Issue 3, 1 February 2012, Pages 795-821, ISSN 0021-9991, 10.1016/j.jcp.2011.03.035.

  14. A new solar wind-driven global dynamic plasmapause model: 2. Model and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Fei; Zhang, Xiao-Xin; Lin, Rui-Lin; Fok, Mei-Ching; Katus, Roxanne M.; Liemohn, Mike W.; Gallagher, Dennis L.; Nakano, Shinya

    2017-07-01

    A new solar wind-driven global dynamic plasmapause (NSW-GDP) model has been constructed based on the largest currently available database containing 49,119 plasmapause crossing locations and 3957 plasmapause profiles (corresponding to 48,899 plasmapause locations), from 18 satellites during 1977-2015 covering four solar cycles. This model is compiled by the Levenberg-Marquardt method for nonlinear multiparameter fitting and parameterized by VSW, BZ, SYM-H, and AE. Continuous and smooth magnetic local time dependence controlled mainly by the solar wind-driven convection electric field ESW is also embedded in this model. Compared with previous empirical models based on our database, this new model improves the forecasting accuracy and capability for the global plasmapause. The diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle variations of the plasmapause can be captured by the new model. The NSW-GDP model can potentially be used to forecast the global plasmapause shape with upstream solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and corresponding predicted values of SYM-H and AE and can also be used as input parameters for other inner magnetospheric coupling models, such as dynamic radiation belt and ring current models and even MHD models.

  15. Modelling the solar wind interaction with Mercury by a quasi-neutral hybrid model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kallio

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Quasi-neutral hybrid model is a self-consistent modelling approach that includes positively charged particles and an electron fluid. The approach has received an increasing interest in space plasma physics research because it makes it possible to study several plasma physical processes that are difficult or impossible to model by self-consistent fluid models, such as the effects associated with the ions’ finite gyroradius, the velocity difference between different ion species, or the non-Maxwellian velocity distribution function. By now quasi-neutral hybrid models have been used to study the solar wind interaction with the non-magnetised Solar System bodies of Mars, Venus, Titan and comets. Localized, two-dimensional hybrid model runs have also been made to study terrestrial dayside magnetosheath. However, the Hermean plasma environment has not yet been analysed by a global quasi-neutral hybrid model. In this paper we present a new quasi-neutral hybrid model developed to study various processes associated with the Mercury-solar wind interaction. Emphasis is placed on addressing advantages and disadvantages of the approach to study different plasma physical processes near the planet. The basic assumptions of the approach and the algorithms used in the new model are thoroughly presented. Finally, some of the first three-dimensional hybrid model runs made for Mercury are presented. The resulting macroscopic plasma parameters and the morphology of the magnetic field demonstrate the applicability of the new approach to study the Mercury-solar wind interaction globally. In addition, the real advantage of the kinetic hybrid model approach is to study the property of individual ions, and the study clearly demonstrates the large potential of the approach to address these more detailed issues by a quasi-neutral hybrid model in the future.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (planetary magnetospheres; solar wind-magnetosphere interactions – Space plasma

  16. Modeling of wind turbine vortex generators in considering the inter-effects between arrays

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Zhenzhou; Shen, Wenzhong; Wang, Ruixin

    2017-01-01

    Vortex generators (VGs) are commonly placed on wind turbine blades to delay flow separation in the boundary layer. VGs can be parametrically modeled in computational fluid dynamics for effective and efficient simulations of wind blade flow fields. Many researchers have studied the vortex circulat......Vortex generators (VGs) are commonly placed on wind turbine blades to delay flow separation in the boundary layer. VGs can be parametrically modeled in computational fluid dynamics for effective and efficient simulations of wind blade flow fields. Many researchers have studied the vortex....... Compared to the solid VG model, the array type model has similar streamlines and surface pressure coefficients on the suction surface. The array type VG model can effectively reduce the number of grid points and yield highly accurate predictions of wind turbine blade aerodynamic characteristics....

  17. Wind Turbine Generator Modeling and Simulation Where Rotational Speed is the Controlled Variable

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mihet-Popa, Lucian; Blaabjerg, Frede; Boldea, Ion

    2004-01-01

    the interaction between a wind turbine and the power system. The model is intended to simulate the behaviour of the wind turbine using induction generators both during normal operation. Sample simulation results for two induction generators (2/0.5 MW) validate the fundamental issues.......To optimise the power produced in a wind turbine, the speed of the turbine should vary with the wind speed. A simple control method is proposed that will allow an induction machine to run a turbine at its maximum power coefficient. Various types of power control strategies have been suggested...... for application in variable speed wind turbines. The usual strategy is to control the power or the torque acting on the wind turbine shafts. This paper presents an alternative control strategy, where the rotational speed is the controlled variable. The paper describes a model, which is being developed to simulate...

  18. Dynamic model of frequency control in Danish power system with large scale integration of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basit, Abdul; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2013-01-01

    This work evaluates the impact of large scale integration of wind power in future power systems when 50% of load demand can be met from wind power. The focus is on active power balance control, where the main source of power imbalance is an inaccurate wind speed forecast. In this study, a Danish...... power system model with large scale of wind power is developed and a case study for an inaccurate wind power forecast is investigated. The goal of this work is to develop an adequate power system model that depicts relevant dynamic features of the power plants and compensates for load generation...... imbalances, caused by inaccurate wind speed forecast, by an appropriate control of the active power production from power plants....

  19. Subsides to the creation of a regional model of forest fire hazard: Taquari River Springs Park, MS—A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Albuquerque, L. M. Mercê; Paranhos Filho, A. C.; Torres, T. G.; Kassar, E.; de Matos Filho, H. J. S.; Carrijo, M. G. G.; Pavão, H. G.; de Souza, A.

    Using map algebra, in the GIS (geographic information system) environment, this study integrates the B-RAMS, Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Models Software (CPTEC, 2005) climate model data with remote sensing data, intending to obtain a wildfire hazard map. The Taquari River Springs Park (TRSP) was chosen as a case study, due to the presence of springs which are considered important contributors to the Upper Paraguay River Basin, and it also contains essential remnants of the Cerrado Biome. The B-RAMS model has provided relative humidity, components of the horizontal wind and temperature. The TRSP land cover was identified by object oriented classification of a LANDSAT ETM+ image, supported by field observations. From the land cover phytophysionomic type characterization, a forest wildfire fuel map has been elaborated. The integration of the different maps has been made using a GIS, and a new map with its associated GIS database was generated showing the most vulnerable zones to wildfire hazard.

  20. Modeling of seismic hazards for dynamic reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizutani, M.; Fukushima, S.; Akao, Y.; Katukura, H.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriate indices of seismic hazard curves (SHCs) for seismic reliability analysis. In the most seismic reliability analyses of structures, the seismic hazards are defined in the form of the SHCs of peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Usually PGAs play a significant role in characterizing ground motions. However, PGA is not always a suitable index of seismic motions. When random vibration theory developed in the frequency domain is employed to obtain statistics of responses, it is more convenient for the implementation of dynamic reliability analysis (DRA) to utilize an index which can be determined in the frequency domain. In this paper, we summarize relationships among the indices which characterize ground motions. The relationships between the indices and the magnitude M are arranged as well. In this consideration, duration time plays an important role in relating two distinct class, i.e. energy class and power class. Fourier and energy spectra are involved in the energy class, and power and response spectra and PGAs are involved in the power class. These relationships are also investigated by using ground motion records. Through these investigations, we have shown the efficiency of employing the total energy as an index of SHCs, which can be determined in the time and frequency domains and has less variance than the other indices. In addition, we have proposed the procedure of DRA based on total energy. (author)