Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

Science.gov (United States)

Patricia L. Andrews

2012-01-01

Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

Numerical Modelling of Extreme Natural Hazards in the Russian Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Surkova, Galina

2017-04-01

Storm surges and extreme waves are severe natural sea hazards. Due to the almost complete lack of natural observations of these phenomena in the Russian seas (Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic, White, Barents, Okhotsk, Kara), especially about their formation, development and destruction, they have been studied using numerical simulation. To calculate the parameters of wind waves for the seas listed above, except the Barents Sea, the spectral model SWAN was applied. For the Barents and Kara seas we used WAVEWATCH III model. Formation and development of storm surges were studied using ADCIRC model. The input data for models - bottom topography, wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover. In modeling of surges in the White and Barents seas tidal level fluctuations were used. They have been calculated from 16 harmonic constant obtained from global atlas tides FES2004. Wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover was taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2010, and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis for the period from 1979 to 2015. In modeling we used both regular and unstructured grid. The wave climate of the Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic and White seas was obtained. Also the extreme wave height possible once in 100 years has been calculated. The statistics of storm surges for the White, Barents and Azov Seas were evaluated. The contribution of wind and atmospheric pressure in the formation of surges was estimated. The technique of climatic forecast frequency of storm synoptic situations was developed and applied for every sea. The research was carried out with financial support of the RFBR (grant 16-08-00829).

Wind energy: Overcoming inadequate wind and modeling uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kane, Vivek

2010-09-15

'Green Energy' is the call of the day, and significance of Wind Energy can never be overemphasized. But the key question here is - What if the wind resources are inadequate? Studies reveal that the probability of finding favorable wind at a given place on land is only 15%. Moreover, there are inherent uncertainties associated with wind business. Can we overcome inadequate wind resources? Can we scientifically quantify uncertainty and model it to make business sense? This paper proposes a solution, by way of break-through Wind Technologies, combined with advanced tools for Financial Modeling, enabling vital business decisions.

Evaluation model of wind energy resources and utilization efficiency of wind farm

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Jie

2018-04-01

Due to the large amount of abandoned winds in wind farms, the establishment of a wind farm evaluation model is particularly important for the future development of wind farms In this essay, consider the wind farm's wind energy situation, Wind Energy Resource Model (WERM) and Wind Energy Utilization Efficiency Model(WEUEM) are established to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the wind farm. Wind Energy Resource Model (WERM) contains average wind speed, average wind power density and turbulence intensity, which assessed wind energy resources together. Based on our model, combined with the actual measurement data of a wind farm, calculate the indicators using the model, and the results are in line with the actual situation. We can plan the future development of the wind farm based on this result. Thus, the proposed establishment approach of wind farm assessment model has application value.

Type IV Wind Turbine Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anca Daniela; Margaris, Ioannis D.

. In the project, this wind turbine model will be further incorporated in a wind power plant model together with the implementation in the wind power control level of the new control functionalities (inertial response, synchronising power and power system damping). For this purpose an aggregate wind power plant......This document is created as part of the EaseWind project. The goal of this project is to develop and investigate new control features for primary response provided by wind power plants. New control features as inertial response, synchronising power and power system damping are of interest to EaseWind...... project to be incorporated in the wind power plant level. This document describes the Type 4 wind turbine simulation model, implemented in the EaseWind project. The implemented wind turbine model is one of the initial necessary steps toward integrating new control services in the wind power plant level...

Dynamic Models for Wind Turbines and Wind Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, M.; Santoso, S.

2011-10-01

The primary objective of this report was to develop universal manufacturer-independent wind turbine and wind power plant models that can be shared, used, and improved without any restrictions by project developers, manufacturers, and engineers. Manufacturer-specific models of wind turbines are favored for use in wind power interconnection studies. While they are detailed and accurate, their usages are limited to the terms of the non-disclosure agreement, thus stifling model sharing. The primary objective of the work proposed is to develop universal manufacturer-independent wind power plant models that can be shared, used, and improved without any restrictions by project developers, manufacturers, and engineers. Each of these models includes representations of general turbine aerodynamics, the mechanical drive-train, and the electrical characteristics of the generator and converter, as well as the control systems typically used. To determine how realistic model performance is, the performance of one of the models (doubly-fed induction generator model) has been validated using real-world wind power plant data. This work also documents selected applications of these models.

Wind speed dynamical model in a wind farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soleimanzadeh, Maryam; Wisniewski, Rafal

2010-01-01

, the dynamic model for wind flow will be established. The state space variables are determined based on a fine mesh defined for the farm. The end goal of this method is to assist the development of a dynamical model of a wind farm that can be engaged for better wind farm control strategies....

Evaluation of MEDALUS model for desertification hazard zonation using GIS; study area: Iyzad Khast plain, Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Egbal, Mahbobeh Nik

2007-08-15

In this study, the MEDALUS model along with GIS mapping techniques are used to determine desertification hazards for a province of Iran to determine the desertification hazard. After creating a desertification database including 20 parameters, the first steps consisted of developing maps of four indices for the MEDALUS model including climate, soil, vegetation and land use were prepared. Since these parameters have mostly been presented for the Mediterranean region in the past, the next step included the addition of other indicators such as ground water and wind erosion. Then all of the layers weighted by environmental conditions present in the area were used (following the same MEDALUS framework) before a desertification map was prepared. The comparison of two maps based on the original and modified MEDALUS models indicates that the addition of more regionally-specific parameters into the model allows for a more accurate representation of desertification processes across the Iyzad Khast plain. The major factors affecting desertification in the area are climate, wind erosion and low land quality management, vegetation degradation and the salinization of soil and water resources.

Wind power prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

1976-01-01

Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

Hazard analysis of typhoon-related external events using extreme value theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yo Chan; Jang, Seung Cheol [Integrated Safety Assessment Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Tae Jin [Dept. of Industrial Information Systems Engineering, Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors: project overview and strong Wind PRA methodology - 15031

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamano, H.; Nishino, H.; Kurisaka, K.; Okano, Y.; Sakai, T.; Yamamoto, T.; Ishizuka, Y.; Geshi, N.; Furukawa, R.; Nanayama, F.; Takata, T.; Azuma, E.

2015-01-01

This paper describes mainly strong wind probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development in addition to the project overview. In this project, to date, the PRA methodologies against snow, tornado and strong wind were developed as well as the hazard evaluation methodologies. For the volcanic eruption hazard, ash fallout simulation was carried out to contribute to the development of the hazard evaluation methodology. For the forest fire hazard, the concept of the hazard evaluation methodology was developed based on fire simulation. Event sequence assessment methodology was also developed based on plant dynamics analysis coupled with continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method in order to apply to the event sequence against snow. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated by using Weibull and Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. The obtained hazard curves were divided into five discrete categories for event tree quantification. Next, failure probabilities for decay heat removal related components were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or out-take in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. Finally, based on the event tree, the core damage frequency was estimated about 6*10 -9 /year by multiplying the discrete hazard probabilities in the Gumbel distribution by the conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the assumption that the operators could not extinguish fuel tank fire caused by the missile impacts and the fire induced loss of the decay heat removal system. (authors)

A Comparison of Wind Flow Models for Wind Resource Assessment in Wind Energy Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathieu Landry

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work was to assess the accuracy of various coupled mesoscale-microscale wind flow modeling methodologies for wind energy applications. This is achieved by examining and comparing mean wind speeds from several wind flow modeling methodologies with observational measurements from several 50 m met towers distributed across the study area. At the mesoscale level, with a 5 km resolution, two scenarios are examined based on the Mesoscale Compressible Community Model (MC2 model: the Canadian Wind Energy Atlas (CWEA scenario, which is based on standard input data, and the CWEA High Definition (CWEAHD scenario where high resolution land cover input data is used. A downscaling of the obtained mesoscale wind climate to the microscale level is then performed, where two linear microscale models, i.e., MsMicro and the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP, are evaluated following three downscaling scenarios: CWEA-WAsP, CWEA-MsMicro and CWEAHD-MsMicro. Results show that, for the territory studied, with a modeling approach based on the MC2 and MsMicro models, also known as Wind Energy Simulation Toolkit (WEST, the use of high resolution land cover and topography data at the mesoscale level helps reduce modeling errors for both the mesoscale and microscale models, albeit only marginally. At the microscale level, results show that the MC2-WAsP modeling approach gave substantially better results than both MC2 and MsMicro modeling approaches due to tweaked meso-micro coupling.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-12-01

Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

Wind Tunnel Modeling Of Wind Flow Over Complex Terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Banks, D.; Cochran, B.

2010-12-01

This presentation will describe the finding of an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) wind tunnel study conducted as part of the Bolund Experiment. This experiment was sponsored by Risø DTU (National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark) during the fall of 2009 to enable a blind comparison of various air flow models in an attempt to validate their performance in predicting airflow over complex terrain. Bohlund hill sits 12 m above the water level at the end of a narrow isthmus. The island features a steep escarpment on one side, over which the airflow can be expected to separate. The island was equipped with several anemometer towers, and the approach flow over the water was well characterized. This study was one of only two only physical model studies included in the blind model comparison, the other being a water plume study. The remainder were computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, including both RANS and LES. Physical modeling of air flow over topographical features has been used since the middle of the 20th century, and the methods required are well understood and well documented. Several books have been written describing how to properly perform ABL wind tunnel studies, including ASCE manual of engineering practice 67. Boundary layer wind tunnel tests are the only modelling method deemed acceptable in ASCE 7-10, the most recent edition of the American Society of Civil Engineers standard that provides wind loads for buildings and other structures for buildings codes across the US. Since the 1970’s, most tall structures undergo testing in a boundary layer wind tunnel to accurately determine the wind induced loading. When compared to CFD, the US EPA considers a properly executed wind tunnel study to be equivalent to a CFD model with infinitesimal grid resolution and near infinite memory. One key reason for this widespread acceptance is that properly executed ABL wind tunnel studies will accurately simulate flow separation

Modelling Wind for Wind Farm Layout Optimization Using Joint Distribution of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

OpenAIRE

Ju Feng; Wen Zhong Shen

2015-01-01

Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint distributions of wind speed and wind direction, which is based on the parameters of sector-wise Weibull distributions and interpolations between direction sectors. It is applied to the wind measurement data a...

Wind farm related mortality among avian migrants - a remote sensing study and model analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Desholm, M

2006-11-15

This thesis is the result of a PhD study on bird-wind farm collisions and consists of a synopsis, five published papers, one submitted manuscript and another ready for submission. The papers describe the findings from pre- and post-construction visual, radar and thermal imaging studies (1999-2006) of migrating birds at the Nysted offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea, Denmark. This thesis poses and answers the following questions: a) what hazard factors do offshore wind farming pose to wild birds, b) how should one choose the key focal species to study, c) how can remote sensing techniques be applied to the study of bird wind farm interactions, and d) specifically, how do water birds react when approaching an offshore wind farm? The main aim of the study was the development of a predictive bird-wind farm collision model that incorporates the avoidance rate of birds at multiple scales. Out of 235,136 migrating sea ducks only 47 individuals were predicted to collide with the wind turbine rotor-blades, equivalent to an overall mean collision risk of c. 0.02%. This thesis shows the added value of modelling in supplementing sound empirical studies in accessing the effects of major human development pressures on migratory bird populations. (au)

A Novel Wind Speed Forecasting Model for Wind Farms of Northwest China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian-Zhou; Wang, Yun

2017-01-01

Wind resources are becoming increasingly significant due to their clean and renewable characteristics, and the integration of wind power into existing electricity systems is imminent. To maintain a stable power supply system that takes into account the stochastic nature of wind speed, accurate wind speed forecasting is pivotal. However, no single model can be applied to all cases. Recent studies show that wind speed forecasting errors are approximately 25% to 40% in Chinese wind farms. Presently, hybrid wind speed forecasting models are widely used and have been verified to perform better than conventional single forecasting models, not only in short-term wind speed forecasting but also in long-term forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model is developed, the Similar Coefficient Sum (SCS) and Hermite Interpolation are exploited to process the original wind speed data, and the SVM model whose parameters are tuned by an artificial intelligence model is built to make forecast. The results of case studies show that the MAPE value of the hybrid model varies from 22.96% to 28.87 %, and the MAE value varies from 0.47 m/s to 1.30 m/s. Generally, Sign test, Wilcoxon's Signed-Rank test, and Morgan-Granger-Newbold test tell us that the proposed model is different from the compared models.

Estimated airborne release of plutonium from Westinghouse Cheswick site as a result of postulated damage from severe wind and seismic hazard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishima, J.; Schwendiman, L.C.; Ayer, J.E.

1979-06-01

The potential airborne releases of plutonium (source terms) from postulated damage sustained by the Westinghouse Plutonium Fuel Development Laboratories at the Cheswick site in Pennsylvania as a result of various levels of wind and seismic hazard are estimated. The source terms are based on damage scenarios originated by other specialists and range up to 260 mph for wind hazard and in excess of 0.39 g ground acceleration for seismic hazard. The approaches and factors used to estimate the source terms (inventories of dispersible materials at risk, damage levels and ratios, fractional airborne releases of dispersible materials under stress, atmosphere exchange rates, and source term ranges) are discussed. Source term estimates range from less than 10 -7 g plutonium to greater than 130 g plutonium over a four-day period

Wind model for low frequency power fluctuations in offshore wind farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vigueras-Rodríguez, A.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

2010-01-01

of hours, taking into account the spectral correlation between different wind turbines. The modelling is supported by measurements from two large wind farms, namely Nysted and Horns Rev. Measurements from individual wind turbines and meteorological masts are used. Finally, the models are integrated......This paper investigates the correlation between the frequency components of the wind speed Power Spectral Density. The results extend an already existing power fluctuation model that can simulate power fluctuations of wind power on areas up to several kilometers and for time scales up to a couple...

An Appropriate Wind Model for Wind Integrated Power Systems Reliability Evaluation Considering Wind Speed Correlations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rajesh Karki

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Adverse environmental impacts of carbon emissions are causing increasing concerns to the general public throughout the world. Electric energy generation from conventional energy sources is considered to be a major contributor to these harmful emissions. High emphasis is therefore being given to green alternatives of energy, such as wind and solar. Wind energy is being perceived as a promising alternative. This source of energy technology and its applications have undergone significant research and development over the past decade. As a result, many modern power systems include a significant portion of power generation from wind energy sources. The impact of wind generation on the overall system performance increases substantially as wind penetration in power systems continues to increase to relatively high levels. It becomes increasingly important to accurately model the wind behavior, the interaction with other wind sources and conventional sources, and incorporate the characteristics of the energy demand in order to carry out a realistic evaluation of system reliability. Power systems with high wind penetrations are often connected to multiple wind farms at different geographic locations. Wind speed correlations between the different wind farms largely affect the total wind power generation characteristics of such systems, and therefore should be an important parameter in the wind modeling process. This paper evaluates the effect of the correlation between multiple wind farms on the adequacy indices of wind-integrated systems. The paper also proposes a simple and appropriate probabilistic analytical model that incorporates wind correlations, and can be used for adequacy evaluation of multiple wind-integrated systems.

Model county ordinance for wind projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

1997-12-31

Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

Research on large-scale wind farm modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Longfei; Zhang, Baoqun; Gong, Cheng; Jiao, Ran; Shi, Rui; Chi, Zhongjun; Ding, Yifeng

2017-01-01

Due to intermittent and adulatory properties of wind energy, when large-scale wind farm connected to the grid, it will have much impact on the power system, which is different from traditional power plants. Therefore it is necessary to establish an effective wind farm model to simulate and analyze the influence wind farms have on the grid as well as the transient characteristics of the wind turbines when the grid is at fault. However we must first establish an effective WTGs model. As the doubly-fed VSCF wind turbine has become the mainstream wind turbine model currently, this article first investigates the research progress of doubly-fed VSCF wind turbine, and then describes the detailed building process of the model. After that investigating the common wind farm modeling methods and pointing out the problems encountered. As WAMS is widely used in the power system, which makes online parameter identification of the wind farm model based on off-output characteristics of wind farm be possible, with a focus on interpretation of the new idea of identification-based modeling of large wind farms, which can be realized by two concrete methods.

SimWIND: A geospatial infrastructure model for optimizing wind power generation and transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, Benjamin R.; Middleton, Richard S.

2012-01-01

Wind is a clean, enduring energy resource with the capacity to satisfy 20% or more of U.S. electricity demand. Presently, wind potential is limited by a paucity of electrical transmission lines and/or capacity between promising wind resources and primary load centers. We present the model SimWIND to address this shortfall. SimWIND is an integrated optimization model for the geospatial arrangement and cost minimization of wind-power generation–transmission–delivery infrastructure. Given a set of possible wind-farm sites, the model simultaneously determines (1) where and how much power to generate and (2) where to build new transmission infrastructure and with what capacity in order to minimize the cost for delivering a targeted amount of power to load. Costs and routing of transmission lines consider geographic and social constraints as well as electricity losses. We apply our model to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Interconnection, considering scenarios that deliver up to 20 GW of new wind power. We show that SimWIND could potentially reduce ERCOT's projected ∼$5B transmission network upgrade line length and associated costs by 50%. These results suggest that SimWIND's coupled generation–transmission–delivery modeling approach could play a critical role in enhancing planning efforts and reducing costs for wind energy integration. - Highlights: ► Wind power is limited by transmission capacity between resources and demands. ► SimWIND is a coupled generation-transmission-delivery model for wind infrastructure. ► The model minimizes costs considering realistic transmission routing and networking. ► We show that SimWIND could save 50% of $5B costs for expanding the Texas grid. ► Results suggest SimWIND may play a critical role in enhancings wind planning efforts.

Modelling Wind for Wind Farm Layout Optimization Using Joint Distribution of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feng, Ju; Shen, Wen Zhong

2015-01-01

Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint distribu...

Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

2010-01-01

Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

Numerical modeling on air quality in an urban environment with changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction.

Science.gov (United States)

Yassin, Mohamed F

2013-06-01

Due to heavy traffic emissions within an urban environment, air quality during the last decade becomes worse year by year and hazard to public health. In the present work, numerical modeling of flow and dispersion of gaseous emissions from vehicle exhaust in a street canyon were investigated under changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction. The three-dimensional flow and dispersion of gaseous pollutants were modeled using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model which was numerically solved using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The diffusion flow field in the atmospheric boundary layer within the street canyon was studied for different aspect ratios (W/H=1/2, 3/4, and 1) and wind directions (θ=90°, 112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°). The numerical models were validated against wind tunnel results to optimize the turbulence model. The numerical results agreed well with the wind tunnel results. The simulation demonstrated that the minimum concentration at the human respiration height within the street canyon was on the windward side for aspect ratios W/H=1/2 and 1 and wind directions θ=112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°. The pollutant concentration level decreases as the wind direction and aspect ratio increase. The wind velocity and turbulence intensity increase as the aspect ratio and wind direction increase.

Modeling and Modern Control of Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This book covers the modeling of wind power and application of modern control methods to the wind power control—specifically the models of type 3 and type 4 wind turbines. The modeling aspects will help readers to streamline the wind turbine and wind power plant modeling, and reduce the burden...... of power system simulations to investigate the impact of wind power on power systems. The use of modern control methods will help technology development, especially from the perspective of manufactures....

Tornado hazard model with the variation effects of tornado intensity along the path length

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Nohara, Daisuke; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Hattori, Yasuo

2015-01-01

Most of Japanese tornados have been reported near the coast line, where all of Japanese nuclear power plants are located. It is necessary for Japanese electric power companies to assess tornado risks on the plants according to a new regulation in 2013. The new regulatory guide exemplifies a tornado hazard model, which cannot consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and consequently produces conservative risk estimates. The guide also recommends the long narrow strip area along the coast line with the width of 5-10 km as a region of interest, although the model tends to estimate inadequate wind speeds due to the limit of application. The purpose of this study is to propose a new tornado hazard model which can be apply to the long narrow strip area. The new model can also consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and across the path width. (author)

Modeling of the dynamics of wind to power conversion including high wind speed behavior

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Bjerge, Martin Huus; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

2016-01-01

This paper proposes and validates an efficient, generic and computationally simple dynamic model for the conversion of the wind speed at hub height into the electrical power by a wind turbine. This proposed wind turbine model was developed as a first step to simulate wind power time series...... for power system studies. This paper focuses on describing and validating the single wind turbine model, and is therefore neither describing wind speed modeling nor aggregation of contributions from a whole wind farm or a power system area. The state-of-the-art is to use static power curves for the purpose...... of power system studies, but the idea of the proposed wind turbine model is to include the main dynamic effects in order to have a better representation of the fluctuations in the output power and of the fast power ramping especially because of high wind speed shutdowns of the wind turbine. The high wind...

Alternative methods of modeling wind generation using production costing models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milligan, M.R.; Pang, C.K.

1996-08-01

This paper examines the methods of incorporating wind generation in two production costing models: one is a load duration curve (LDC) based model and the other is a chronological-based model. These two models were used to evaluate the impacts of wind generation on two utility systems using actual collected wind data at two locations with high potential for wind generation. The results are sensitive to the selected wind data and the level of benefits of wind generation is sensitive to the load forecast. The total production cost over a year obtained by the chronological approach does not differ significantly from that of the LDC approach, though the chronological commitment of units is more realistic and more accurate. Chronological models provide the capability of answering important questions about wind resources which are difficult or impossible to address with LDC models

Turbulence Hazard Metric Based on Peak Accelerations for Jetliner Passengers

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Eric C.

2005-01-01

Calculations are made of the approximate hazard due to peak normal accelerations of an airplane flying through a simulated vertical wind field associated with a convective frontal system. The calculations are based on a hazard metric developed from a systematic application of a generic math model to 1-cosine discrete gusts of various amplitudes and gust lengths. The math model simulates the three degree-of- freedom longitudinal rigid body motion to vertical gusts and includes (1) fuselage flexibility, (2) the lag in the downwash from the wing to the tail, (3) gradual lift effects, (4) a simplified autopilot, and (5) motion of an unrestrained passenger in the rear cabin. Airplane and passenger response contours are calculated for a matrix of gust amplitudes and gust lengths. The airplane response contours are used to develop an approximate hazard metric of peak normal accelerations as a function of gust amplitude and gust length. The hazard metric is then applied to a two-dimensional simulated vertical wind field of a convective frontal system. The variations of the hazard metric with gust length and airplane heading are demonstrated.

A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.

2017-12-01

Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.

GIS and RS-based modelling of potential natural hazard areas in Pehchevo municipality, Republic of Macedonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milevski Ivica

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, one approach of Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS assessment of potential natural hazard areas (excess erosion, landslides, flash floods and fires is presented. For that purpose Pehchevo Municipality in the easternmost part of the Republic of Macedonia is selected as a case study area because of high local impact of natural hazards on the environment, social-demographic situation and local economy. First of all, most relevant static factors for each type of natural hazard are selected (topography, land cover, anthropogenic objects and infrastructure. With GIS and satellite imagery, multi-layer calculation is performed based on available traditional equations, clustering or discreditation procedures. In such way suitable relatively “static” natural hazard maps (models are produced. Then, dynamic (mostly climate related factors are included in previous models resulting in appropriate scenarios correlated with different amounts of precipitation, temperature, wind direction etc. Finally, GIS based scenarios are evaluated and tested with field check or very fine resolution Google Earth imagery showing good accuracy. Further development of such GIS models in connection with automatic remote meteorological stations and dynamic satellite imagery (like MODIS will provide on-time warning for coming natural hazard avoiding potential damages or even causalities.

Wind Turbine and Wind Power Plant Modelling Aspects for Power System Stability Studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Altin, Müfit; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Göksu, Ömer

2014-01-01

Large amount of wind power installations introduce modeling challenges for power system operators at both the planning and operational stages of power systems. Depending on the scope of the study, the modeling details of the wind turbine or the wind power plant are required to be different. A wind...... turbine model which is developed for the short-term voltage stability studies can be inaccurate and sufficient for the frequency stability studies. Accordingly, a complete and detailed wind power plant model for every kind of study is not feasible in terms of the computational time and also...... and wind power plants are reviewed for power system stability studies. Important remarks of the models are presented by means of simulations to emphasize the impact of these modelling details on the power system....

Wind farm models and control strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, Poul; Hansen, Anca D.; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.; Donovan, M.H.

2005-08-01

This report describes models and control strategies for 3 different concepts of wind farms. Initially, the potential in improvement of grid integration, structural loads and energy production is investigated in a survey of opportunities. Then simulation models are described, including wind turbine models for a fixed speed wind turbine with active stall control and a variable speed wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator. After that, the 3 wind farm concepts and control strategies are described. The 3 concepts are AC connected doubly fed turbines, AC connected active stall turbines and DC connected active stall turbines. Finally, some simulation examples and conclusions are presented. (au)

Wind Plant Models in IEC 61400-27-2 and WECC - latest developments in international standards on wind turbine and wind plant modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fortmann, Jens; Miller, Nicholas; Kazachkov, Yuri

2015-01-01

This paper describes the latest developments in the standardization of wind plant and wind plant controller models. As a first step IEC TC88 WG 27 and WECC jointly developed generic wind turbine models which have been published by WECC in 2014 and IEC in 2015 as IEC 61400-27-1, which also include...

On wake modeling, wind-farm gradients, and AEP predictions at the Anholt wind farm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Peña

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We investigate wake effects at the Anholt offshore wind farm in Denmark, which is a farm experiencing strong horizontal wind-speed gradients because of its size and proximity to land. Mesoscale model simulations are used to study the horizontal wind-speed gradients over the wind farm. From analysis of the mesoscale simulations and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA, we show that for westerly flow in particular, there is a clear horizontal wind-speed gradient over the wind farm. We also use the mesoscale simulations to derive the undisturbed inflow conditions that are coupled with three commonly used wake models: two engineering approaches (the Park and G. C. Larsen models and a linearized Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes approach (Fuga. The effect of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on annual energy production estimates is not found to be critical compared to estimates from both the average undisturbed wind climate of all turbines' positions and the undisturbed wind climate of a position in the middle of the wind farm. However, annual energy production estimates can largely differ when using wind climates at positions that are strongly influenced by the horizontal wind-speed gradient. When looking at westerly flow wake cases, where the impact of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on the power of the undisturbed turbines is largest, the wake models agree with the SCADA fairly well; when looking at a southerly flow case, where the wake losses are highest, the wake models tend to underestimate the wake loss. With the mesoscale-wake model setup, we are also able to estimate the capacity factor of the wind farm rather well when compared to that derived from the SCADA. Finally, we estimate the uncertainty of the wake models by bootstrapping the SCADA. The models tend to underestimate the wake losses (the median relative model error is 8.75 % and the engineering wake models are as uncertain as Fuga. These results are specific for

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-04-01

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

Wind farm related mortality among avian migrants - a remote sensing study and model analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Desholm, M.

,136 migrating sea ducks only 47 individuals were predicted to collide with the wind turbine rotor-blades, equivalent to an overall mean collision risk of c. 0.02%. This thesis shows the added value of modelling in supplementing sound empirical studies in accessing the effects of major human development......This thesis is the result of a PhD study on bird-wind farm collisions and consists of a synopsis, five published papers, one submitted manuscript and another ready for submission. The papers describe the fi ndings from pre- and post-construction visual, radar and thermal imaging studies (1999......-2006) of migrating birds at the Nysted offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea, Denmark. This thesis poses and answers the following questions: a) what hazard factors do offshore wind farming pose to wild birds, b) how should one choose the key focal species to study, c) how can remote sensing techniques be applied...

Global empirical wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere. I. Prevailing wind

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. I. Portnyagin

Full Text Available An updated empirical climatic zonally averaged prevailing wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere (70-110 km, extending from 80°N to 80°S is presented. The model is constructed from the fitting of monthly mean winds from meteor radar and MF radar measurements at more than 40 stations, well distributed over the globe. The height-latitude contour plots of monthly mean zonal and meridional winds for all months of the year, and of annual mean wind, amplitudes and phases of annual and semiannual harmonics of wind variations are analyzed to reveal the main features of the seasonal variation of the global wind structures in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Some results of comparison between the ground-based wind models and the space-based models are presented. It is shown that, with the exception of annual mean systematic bias between the zonal winds provided by the ground-based and space-based models, a good agreement between the models is observed. The possible origin of this bias is discussed.

Key words: Meteorology and Atmospheric dynamics (general circulation; middle atmosphere dynamics; thermospheric dynamics

Pitchcontrol of wind turbines using model free adaptivecontrol based on wind turbine code

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Yunqian; Chen, Zhe; Cheng, Ming

2011-01-01

value is only based on I/O data of the wind turbine is identified and then the wind turbine system is replaced by a dynamic linear time-varying model. In order to verify the correctness and robustness of the proposed model free adaptive pitch controller, the wind turbine code FAST which can predict......As the wind turbine is a nonlinear high-order system, to achieve good pitch control performance, model free adaptive control (MFAC) approach which doesn't need the mathematical model of the wind turbine is adopted in the pitch control system in this paper. A pseudo gradient vector whose estimation...... the wind turbine loads and response in high accuracy is used. The results show that the controller produces good dynamic performance, good robustness and adaptability....

Active control: Wind turbine model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bindner, Henrik

1999-07-01

This report is a part of the reporting of the work done in the project `Active Control of Wind Turbines`. This project aim is to develop a simulation model for design of control systems for turbines with pitch control and to use that model to design controllers. This report describes the model developed for controller design and analysis. Emphasis has been put on establishment of simple models describing the dynamic behavior of the wind turbine in adequate details for controller design. This has been done with extensive use of measurements as the basis for selection of model complexity and model validation as well as parameter estimation. The model includes a simple model of the structure of the turbine including tower and flapwise blade bending, a detailed model of the gear box and induction generator, a linearized aerodynamic model including modelling of induction lag and actuator and sensor models. The models are all formulated as linear differential equations. The models are validated through comparisons with measurements performed on a Vestas WD 34 400 kW wind turbine. It is shown from a control point of view simple linear models can be used to describe the dynamic behavior of a pitch controlled wind turbine. The model and the measurements corresponds well in the relevant frequency range. The developed model is therefore applicable for controller design. (au) EFP-91. 18 ills., 22 refs.

A ¤flexible additive multiplicative hazard model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinussen, T.; Scheike, T. H.

2002-01-01

Aalen's additive model; Counting process; Cox regression; Hazard model; Proportional excess harzard model; Time-varying effect......Aalen's additive model; Counting process; Cox regression; Hazard model; Proportional excess harzard model; Time-varying effect...

Lightning hazard reduction at wind farms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kithil, R. [National Lightning Safety Institute, Louisville, CO (United States)

1997-12-31

The USA wind farm industry (WFI) largely is centered in low-lightning areas of the State of California. While some evidence of lightning incidents is reported here, the problem is not regarded as serious by most participants. The USA WFI now is moving eastward, into higher areas of lightning activity. The European WFI has had many years experience with lightning problems. One 1995 German study estimated that 80% of wind turbine insurance claims paid for damage compensation were caused by lightning strikes. The European and USA WFI have not adopted site criteria, design fundamentals, or certification techniques aimed at lightning safety. Sufficient evidence about lightning at wind farms is available to confirm that serious potential problems exist.

Wind gust models derived from field data

Science.gov (United States)

Gawronski, W.

1995-01-01

Wind data measured during a field experiment were used to verify the analytical model of wind gusts. Good coincidence was observed; the only discrepancy occurred for the azimuth error in the front and back winds, where the simulated errors were smaller than the measured ones. This happened because of the assumption of the spatial coherence of the wind gust model, which generated a symmetric antenna load and, in consequence, a low azimuth servo error. This result indicates a need for upgrading the wind gust model to a spatially incoherent one that will reflect the real gusts in a more accurate manner. In order to design a controller with wind disturbance rejection properties, the wind disturbance should be known at the input to the antenna rate loop model. The second task, therefore, consists of developing a digital filter that simulates the wind gusts at the antenna rate input. This filter matches the spectrum of the measured servo errors. In this scenario, the wind gusts are generated by introducing white noise to the filter input.

Model of wind shear conditional on turbulence and its impact on wind turbine loads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Natarajan, Anand; Kelly, Mark C.

2015-01-01

proposed for flat terrain and that can significantly decrease the uncertainty associated with fatigue load predictions for wind turbines with large rotors. An essential contribution is the conditioning of wind shear on the 90% quantile of wind turbulence, such that the appropriate magnitude of the design...... fatigue load is achieved. The proposed wind shear model based on the wind measurements is thereby probabilistic in definition, with shear jointly distributed with wind turbulence. A simplified model for the wind shear exponent is further derived from the full stochastic model. The fatigue loads over...... is most pronounced on the blade flap loads. It is further shown that under moderate wind turbulence, the wind shear exponents may be over-specified in the design standards, and a reduction of wind shear exponent based on the present measurements can contribute to reduced fatigue damage equivalent loads...

CFD Wake Modelling with a BEM Wind Turbine Sub-Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anders Hallanger

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Modelling of wind farms using computational fluid dynamics (CFD resolving the flow field around each wind turbine's blades on a moving computational grid is still too costly and time consuming in terms of computational capacity and effort. One strategy is to use sub-models for the wind turbines, and sub-grid models for turbulence production and dissipation to model the turbulent viscosity accurately enough to handle interaction of wakes in wind farms. A wind turbine sub-model, based on the Blade Momentum Theory, see Hansen (2008, has been implemented in an in-house CFD code, see Hallanger et al. (2002. The tangential and normal reaction forces from the wind turbine blades are distributed on the control volumes (CVs at the wind turbine rotor location as sources in the conservation equations of momentum. The classical k-epsilon turbulence model of Launder and Spalding (1972 is implemented with sub-grid turbulence (SGT model, see Sha and Launder (1979 and Sand and Salvesen (1994. Steady state CFD simulations were compared with flow and turbulence measurements in the wake of a model scale wind turbine, see Krogstad and Eriksen (2011. The simulated results compared best with experiments when stalling (boundary layer separation on the wind turbine blades did not occur. The SGT model did improve turbulence level in the wake but seems to smear the wake flow structure. It should be noted that the simulations are carried out steady state not including flow oscillations caused by vortex shedding from tower and blades as they were in the experiments. Further improvement of the simulated velocity defect and turbulence level seems to rely on better parameter estimation to the SGT model, improvements to the SGT model, and possibly transient- instead of steady state simulations.

Application of fuzzy logic approach for wind erosion hazard mapping in Laghouat region (Algeria) using remote sensing and GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Saadoud, Djouher; Hassani, Mohamed; Martin Peinado, Francisco José; Guettouche, Mohamed Saïd

2018-06-01

Wind erosion is one of the most serious environmental problems in Algeria that threatens human activities and socio-economic development. The main goal of this study is to apply a fuzzy logic approach to wind erosion sensitivity mapping in the Laghouat region, Algeria. Six causative factors, obtained by applying fuzzy membership functions to each used parameter, are considered: soil, vegetation cover, wind factor, soil dryness, land topography and land cover sensitivity. Different fuzzy operators (AND, OR, SUM, PRODUCT, and GAMMA) are applied to generate wind-erosion hazard map. Success rate curves reveal that the fuzzy gamma (γ) operator, with γ equal to 0.9, gives the best prediction accuracy with an area under curve of 85.2%. The resulting wind-erosion sensitivity map delineates the area into different zones of five relative sensitivity classes: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. The estimated result was verified by field measurements and the high statistically significant value of a chi-square test.

Improved diagnostic model for estimating wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Endlich, R.M.; Lee, J.D.

1983-03-01

Because wind data are available only at scattered locations, a quantitative method is needed to estimate the wind resource at specific sites where wind energy generation may be economically feasible. This report describes a computer model that makes such estimates. The model uses standard weather reports and terrain heights in deriving wind estimates; the method of computation has been changed from what has been used previously. The performance of the current model is compared with that of the earlier version at three sites; estimates of wind energy at four new sites are also presented.

Guest Editorial Modeling and Advanced Control of Wind Turbines/Wind Farms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, J.; Hou, Y.; Zhu, Z.; Xu, D.; Xu, D.; Muljadi, E.; Liu, F.; Iwanski, G.; Geng, H.; Erlich, I.; Wen, J.; Harnefors, L.; Fan, L.; El Moursi, M. S.; Kjaer, P. C.; Nelson, R. J.; Cardenas, R.; Feng, S.; Islam, S.; Qiao, W.; Yuan, X.

2017-09-01

The papers in this special section brings together papers focused on the recent advancements and breakthroughs in the technology of modeling and enhanced active/reactive power control of wind power conversion systems, ranging from components of wind turbines to wind farms.

Economic performance indicators of wind energy based on wind speed stochastic modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D’Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo; Prattico, Flavio

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We propose a new and different wind energy production indicator. • We compute financial profitability of potential wind power sites. • The wind speed process is modeled as an indexed semi-Markov chain. • We check if the wind energy is a good investment with and without incentives. - Abstract: We propose the computation of different wind energy production indicators and financial profitability of potential wind power sites. The computation is performed by modeling the wind speed process as an indexed semi-Markov chain to predict and simulate the wind speed dynamics. We demonstrate that the indexed semi-Markov chain approach enables reproducing the indicators calculated on real data. Two different time horizons of 15 and 30 years are analyzed. In the first case we consider the government incentives on the energy price now present in Italy, while in the second case the incentives have not been taken into account

Modeling the wind-fields of accidental releases with an operational regional forecast model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albritton, J.R.; Lee, R.L.; Sugiyama, G.

1995-01-01

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is an operational emergency preparedness and response organization supported primarily by the Departments of Energy and Defense. ARAC can provide real-time assessments of atmospheric releases of radioactive materials at any location in the world. ARAC uses robust three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, extensive geophysical and dose-factor databases, meteorological data-acquisition systems, and an experienced staff. Although it was originally conceived and developed as an emergency response and assessment service for nuclear accidents, the ARAC system has been adapted to also simulate non-radiological hazardous releases. For example, in 1991 ARAC responded to three major events: the oil fires in Kuwait, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and the herbicide spill into the upper Sacramento River in California. ARAC's operational simulation system, includes two three-dimensional finite-difference models: a diagnostic wind-field scheme, and a Lagrangian particle-in-cell transport and dispersion scheme. The meteorological component of ARAC's real-time response system employs models using real-time data from all available stations near the accident site to generate a wind-field for input to the transport and dispersion model. Here we report on simulation studies of past and potential release sites to show that even in the absence of local meteorological observational data, readily available gridded analysis and forecast data and a prognostic model, the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System, applied at an appropriate grid resolution can successfully simulate complex local flows

IEA Wind Task 37: Systems Modeling Framework and Ontology for Wind Turbines and Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dykes, Katherine L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zahle, Frederik [Technical University of Denmark; Merz, Karl [SINTEF Energy Research; McWilliam, Mike [Technical University of Denmark; Bortolotti, Pietro [Technical University Munich

2017-08-14

This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the development of a system modeling framework and ontology for wind turbines and plants as part of the larger IEA Wind Task 37 on wind energy systems engineering. The goals of the effort are to create a set of guidelines for a common conceptual architecture for wind turbines and plants so that practitioners can more easily share descriptions of wind turbines and plants across multiple parties and reduce the effort for translating descriptions between models; integrate different models together and collaborate on model development; and translate models among different levels of fidelity in the system.

Comparative Distributions of Hazard Modeling Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rana Abdul Wajid

2006-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present the comparison among the distributions used in hazard analysis. Simulation technique has been used to study the behavior of hazard distribution modules. The fundamentals of Hazard issues are discussed using failure criteria. We present the flexibility of the hazard modeling distribution that approaches to different distributions.

Advancements in Wind Integration Study Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Jones, W.; Searight, K.; Getman, D.; Harrold, S.; McCaa, J.; Cline, J.; Clark, C.

2013-10-01

Regional wind integration studies in the United States require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high-penetration scenarios. The wind data sets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as be time synchronized with available load profiles. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this paper fulfills these requirements. A wind resource dataset, wind power production time series, and simulated forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model run on a nationwide 2-km grid at 5-min resolution will be made publicly available for more than 110,000 onshore and offshore wind power production sites.

Wind Farms: Modeling and Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soleimanzadeh, Maryam

2012-01-01

is minimized. The controller is practically feasible. Yet, the results on load reduction in this approach are not very significant. In the second strategy, the wind farm control problem has been divided into below rated and above rated wind speed conditions. In the above rated wind speed pitch angle and power....... Distributed controller design commences with formulating the problem, where a structured matrix approach has been put in to practice. Afterwards, an H2 control problem is implemented to obtain the controller dynamics for a wind farm such that the structural loads on wind turbines are minimized.......The primary purpose of this work is to develop control algorithms for wind farms to optimize the power production and augment the lifetime of wind turbines in wind farms. In this regard, a dynamical model for wind farms was required to be the basis of the controller design. In the first stage...

Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics-based Wind Representation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hess, Stephen [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lin, Linyu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sampath, Ram [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-12-01

As a result of the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP and other operational NPP experience, there is an identified need to better characterize and evaluate the potential impacts of externally generated hazards on NPP safety. Due to the ubiquitous occurrence of high winds around the world and the possible extreme magnitude of the hazard that has been observed, the assessment of the impact of the high-winds hazard has been identified as an important activity by both NPP owner-operators and regulatory authorities. However, recent experience obtained from the conduct of high-winds risk assessments indicates that such activities have been both labor-intensive and expensive to perform. Additionally, the existing suite of methods and tools to conduct such assessments (which were developed decades ago) do not make use of modern computational architectures (e.g., parallel processing, object-oriented programming techniques, or simple user interfaces) or methods (e.g., efficient and robust numerical-solution schemes). As a result, the current suite of methods and tools will rapidly become obsolete. Physics-based 3D simulation methods can provide information to assist in the RISMC PRA methodology. This research is intended to determine what benefits SPH methods could bring to high-winds simulations for the purposes of assessing their potential impact on NPP safety. The initial investigation has determined that SPH can simulate key areas of high-wind events with reasonable accuracy, compared to other methods. Some problems, such as simulation voids, need to be addressed, but possible solutions have been identified and will be tested with continued work. This work also demonstrated that SPH simulations can provide a means for simulating debris movement; however, further investigations into the capability to determine the impact of high winds and the impacts of wind-driven debris that lead to SSC failures need to be done. SPH simulations alone would be limited in size

Wind models for zeta Orionis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olson, G.L.

1979-01-01

Several models for the winds of O stars have been proposed to explain the unexpected presence of high ionization potential ions such as N +4 and O +5 . Lamers and Snow (1978) proposed that the winds of stars showing N V and O VI lines have elevated temperatures near 4 +- 2 x 10 5 K while cooler stars with anomalous Si IV lines have Tsub(e) approximately 7+-3 x 10 4 K. Alternately, Cassinelli and Olson (1978, CO) and Olson (1978) have explained the presence of these ions by showing that a thin corona at the base of a cool wind (Tsub(e) < approximately Tsub(eff)) can produce these ions by the Auger photoionization process where a single X-ray photon causes the ejection of two electrons. A third possibility is that the winds are at only slightly elevated temperatures (40 000 to 60 000K) and photoionization in an optically thick wind produces the unexpected ions. The present analysis tests the ability of these three wind models to fit the observations of zeta Orionis A 09.7 Ib. (Auth.)

Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reiss, Martin A.; Temmer, Manuela; Veronig, Astrid M.

2016-01-01

and the background solar wind conditions. We found that both solar wind models are capable of predicting the large-scale features of the observed solar wind speed (root-mean-square error, RMSE ≈100 km/s) but tend to either overestimate (ESWF) or underestimate (WSA) the number of high-speed solar wind streams (threat......High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate...... high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ plasma measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the years 2011 to 2014. While the ESWF makes use of an empirical relation...

Reference Manual for the System Advisor Model's Wind Power Performance Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freeman, J.; Jorgenson, J.; Gilman, P.; Ferguson, T.

2014-08-01

This manual describes the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM) wind power performance model. The model calculates the hourly electrical output of a single wind turbine or of a wind farm. The wind power performance model requires information about the wind resource, wind turbine specifications, wind farm layout (if applicable), and costs. In SAM, the performance model can be coupled to one of the financial models to calculate economic metrics for residential, commercial, or utility-scale wind projects. This manual describes the algorithms used by the wind power performance model, which is available in the SAM user interface and as part of the SAM Simulation Core (SSC) library, and is intended to supplement the user documentation that comes with the software.

Probabilistic Modeling of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei

Wind energy is one of several energy sources in the world and a rapidly growing industry in the energy sector. When placed in offshore or onshore locations, wind turbines are exposed to wave excitations, highly dynamic wind loads and/or the wakes from other wind turbines. Therefore, most components...... in a wind turbine experience highly dynamic and time-varying loads. These components may fail due to wear or fatigue, and this can lead to unplanned shutdown repairs that are very costly. The design by deterministic methods using safety factors is generally unable to account for the many uncertainties. Thus......, a reliability assessment should be based on probabilistic methods where stochastic modeling of failures is performed. This thesis focuses on probabilistic models and the stochastic modeling of the fatigue life of the wind turbine drivetrain. Hence, two approaches are considered for stochastic modeling...

Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik

Cost reductions for offshore wind turbines are a substantial requirement in order to make offshore wind energy more competitive compared to other energy supply methods. During the 20 – 25 years of wind turbines useful life, Operation & Maintenance costs are typically estimated to be a quarter...... for Operation & Maintenance planning. Concentrating efforts on development of such models, this research is focused on reliability modeling of Wind Turbine critical subsystems (especially the power converter system). For reliability assessment of these components, structural reliability methods are applied...... to one third of the total cost of energy. Reduction of Operation & Maintenance costs will result in significant cost savings and result in cheaper electricity production. Operation & Maintenance processes mainly involve actions related to replacements or repair. Identifying the right times when...

Time Series Model of Wind Speed for Multi Wind Turbines based on Mixed Copula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nie Dan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Because wind power is intermittent, random and so on, large scale grid will directly affect the safe and stable operation of power grid. In order to make a quantitative study on the characteristics of the wind speed of wind turbine, the wind speed time series model of the multi wind turbine generator is constructed by using the mixed Copula-ARMA function in this paper, and a numerical example is also given. The research results show that the model can effectively predict the wind speed, ensure the efficient operation of the wind turbine, and provide theoretical basis for the stability of wind power grid connected operation.

Uncertainty quantification in wind farm flow models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo

uncertainties through a model chain are presented and applied to several wind energy related problems such as: annual energy production estimation, wind turbine power curve estimation, wake model calibration and validation, and estimation of lifetime equivalent fatigue loads on a wind turbine. Statistical...

Actuator disk model of wind farms based on the rotor average wind speed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Han, Xing Xing; Xu, Chang; Liu, De You

2016-01-01

Due to difficulty of estimating the reference wind speed for wake modeling in wind farm, this paper proposes a new method to calculate the momentum source based on the rotor average wind speed. The proposed model applies volume correction factor to reduce the influence of the mesh recognition of ...

Wind resource modelling for micro-siting - Validation at a 60-MW wind farm site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, J C; Gylling Mortensen, N [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Said, U S [New and Renewable Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)

1999-03-01

This paper investigates and validates the applicability of the WAsP-model for layout optimization and micro-siting of wind turbines at a given site for a 60-MW wind farm at Zafarana at the Gulf of Suez in Egypt. Previous investigations show large gradients in the wind climate within the area. For the design and optimization of the wind farm it was found necessary to verify the WAsP extrapolation of wind atlas results from 2 existing meteorological masts located 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. On-site measurements at the 3.5 x 3.5 km{sup 2} wind farm site in combination with 7 years of near-site wind atlas measurements offer significant amounts of data for verification of wind conditions for micro-siting. Wind speeds, wind directions, turbulence intensities and guests in 47.5 m a.g.l. have been measured at 9 locations across the site. Additionally, one of the site masts is equipped as a reference mast, measuring both vertical profiles of wind speed and temperature as well as air pressure and temperature. The exercise is further facilitated by the fact that winds are highly uni-directional; the north direction accounting for 80-90% of the wind resource. The paper presents comparisons of 5 months of on-site measurements and modeled predictions from 2 existing meteorological masts located at distances of 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. Predictions based on terrain descriptions of the Wind Atlas for the Gulf of Suez 1991-95 showed over-predictions of wind speeds of 4-10%. With calibrated terrain descriptions, made based on measured data and a re-visit to critical parts of the terrain, the average prediction error of wind speeds was reduced to about 1%. These deviations are smaller than generally expected for such wind resource modeling, clearly documenting the validity of using WAsP modeling for micro-siting and layout optimization of the wind farm. (au)

IEA-Task 31 WAKEBENCH: Towards a protocol for wind farm flow model evaluation. Part 2: Wind farm wake models

Science.gov (United States)

Moriarty, Patrick; Sanz Rodrigo, Javier; Gancarski, Pawel; Chuchfield, Matthew; Naughton, Jonathan W.; Hansen, Kurt S.; Machefaux, Ewan; Maguire, Eoghan; Castellani, Francesco; Terzi, Ludovico; Breton, Simon-Philippe; Ueda, Yuko

2014-06-01

Researchers within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Task 31: Wakebench have created a framework for the evaluation of wind farm flow models operating at the microscale level. The framework consists of a model evaluation protocol integrated with a web-based portal for model benchmarking (www.windbench.net). This paper provides an overview of the building-block validation approach applied to wind farm wake models, including best practices for the benchmarking and data processing procedures for validation datasets from wind farm SCADA and meteorological databases. A hierarchy of test cases has been proposed for wake model evaluation, from similarity theory of the axisymmetric wake and idealized infinite wind farm, to single-wake wind tunnel (UMN-EPFL) and field experiments (Sexbierum), to wind farm arrays in offshore (Horns Rev, Lillgrund) and complex terrain conditions (San Gregorio). A summary of results from the axisymmetric wake, Sexbierum, Horns Rev and Lillgrund benchmarks are used to discuss the state-of-the-art of wake model validation and highlight the most relevant issues for future development.

IEA-Task 31 WAKEBENCH: Towards a protocol for wind farm flow model evaluation. Part 2: Wind farm wake models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moriarty, Patrick; Rodrigo, Javier Sanz; Gancarski, Pawel; Chuchfield, Matthew; Naughton, Jonathan W; Hansen, Kurt S; Machefaux, Ewan; Maguire, Eoghan; Castellani, Francesco; Terzi, Ludovico; Breton, Simon-Philippe; Ueda, Yuko

2014-01-01

Researchers within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Task 31: Wakebench have created a framework for the evaluation of wind farm flow models operating at the microscale level. The framework consists of a model evaluation protocol integrated with a web-based portal for model benchmarking (www.windbench.net). This paper provides an overview of the building-block validation approach applied to wind farm wake models, including best practices for the benchmarking and data processing procedures for validation datasets from wind farm SCADA and meteorological databases. A hierarchy of test cases has been proposed for wake model evaluation, from similarity theory of the axisymmetric wake and idealized infinite wind farm, to single-wake wind tunnel (UMN-EPFL) and field experiments (Sexbierum), to wind farm arrays in offshore (Horns Rev, Lillgrund) and complex terrain conditions (San Gregorio). A summary of results from the axisymmetric wake, Sexbierum, Horns Rev and Lillgrund benchmarks are used to discuss the state-of-the-art of wake model validation and highlight the most relevant issues for future development

Short-term Wind Forecasting at Wind Farms using WRF-LES and Actuator Disk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kirkil, Gokhan

2017-04-01

Short-term wind forecasts are obtained for a wind farm on a mountainous terrain using WRF-LES. Multi-scale simulations are also performed using different PBL parameterizations. Turbines are parameterized using Actuator Disc Model. LES models improved the forecasts. Statistical error analysis is performed and ramp events are analyzed. Complex topography of the study area affects model performance, especially the accuracy of wind forecasts were poor for cross valley-mountain flows. By means of LES, we gain new knowledge about the sources of spatial and temporal variability of wind fluctuations such as the configuration of wind turbines.

Model of analysis of maximum loads in wind generators produced by extreme winds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrera – Sánchez, Omar; Schellong, Wolfgang; González – Fernández, Vladimir

2010-01-01

The use of the wind energy by means of the wind turbines in areas of high risk of occurrence of Hurricanes comes being an important challenge for the designers of wind farm at world for some years. The wind generator is not usually designed to support this type of phenomena, for this reason the areas of high incidence of tropical hurricanes of the planning are excluded, that which, in occasions disables the use of this renewable source of energy totally, either because the country is very small, or because it coincides the area of more potential fully with that of high risk. To counteract this situation, a model of analysis of maxims loads has been elaborated taken place the extreme winds in wind turbines of great behavior. This model has the advantage of determining, in a chosen place, for the installation of a wind farm, the micro-areas with higher risk of wind loads above the acceptable for the standard classes of wind turbines. (author)

On Practical tuning of Model Uncertainty in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

2015-01-01

Model predictive control (MPC) has in previous works been applied on wind turbines with promising results. These results apply linear MPC, i.e., linear models linearized at different operational points depending on the wind speed. The linearized models are derived from a nonlinear first principles...... model of a wind turbine. In this paper, we investigate the impact of this approach on the performance of a wind turbine. In particular, we focus on the most non-linear operational ranges of a wind turbine. The MPC controller is designed for, tested, and evaluated at an industrial high fidelity wind...

Scaling forecast models for wind turbulence and wind turbine power intermittency

Science.gov (United States)

Duran Medina, Olmo; Schmitt, Francois G.; Calif, Rudy

2017-04-01

The intermittency of the wind turbine power remains an important issue for the massive development of this renewable energy. The energy peaks injected in the electric grid produce difficulties in the energy distribution management. Hence, a correct forecast of the wind power in the short and middle term is needed due to the high unpredictability of the intermittency phenomenon. We consider a statistical approach through the analysis and characterization of stochastic fluctuations. The theoretical framework is the multifractal modelisation of wind velocity fluctuations. Here, we consider three wind turbine data where two possess a direct drive technology. Those turbines are producing energy in real exploitation conditions and allow to test our forecast models of power production at a different time horizons. Two forecast models were developed based on two physical principles observed in the wind and the power time series: the scaling properties on the one hand and the intermittency in the wind power increments on the other. The first tool is related to the intermittency through a multifractal lognormal fit of the power fluctuations. The second tool is based on an analogy of the power scaling properties with a fractional brownian motion. Indeed, an inner long-term memory is found in both time series. Both models show encouraging results since a correct tendency of the signal is respected over different time scales. Those tools are first steps to a search of efficient forecasting approaches for grid adaptation facing the wind energy fluctuations.

Climate change and ice hazards in the Beaufort Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barber, D. G.; McCullough, G.; Babb, D.

2014-01-01

Recent reductions in the summer extent of sea ice have focused the world’s attention on the effects of climate change. Increased CO2-derived global warming is rapidly shrinking the Arctic multi-year ice pack. This shift in ice regimes allows for increasing development opportunities for large oil...... will be a much more complex task than modeling average ice circulation. Given the observed reduction in sea ice extent and thickness this rather counterintuitive situation, associated with a warming climate, poses significant hazards to Arctic marine oil and gas development and marine transportation. Accurate...... forecasting of hazardous ice motion will require improved real-time surface wind and ocean current forecast models capable of ingesting local satellite-derived wind data and/or local, closely-spaced networks of anemometers and improved methods of determining high-frequency components of surface ocean current...

Ecological restoration and recovery in the wind-blown sand hazard areas of northern China: relationship between soil water and carrying capacity for vegetation in the Tengger Desert.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, XingRong; Zhang, ZhiShan; Tan, HuiJuan; Gao, YanHong; Liu, LiChao; Wang, XingPing

2014-05-01

The main prevention and control area for wind-blown sand hazards in northern China is about 320000 km(2) in size and includes sandlands to the east of the Helan Mountain and sandy deserts and desert-steppe transitional regions to the west of the Helan Mountain. Vegetation recovery and restoration is an important and effective approach for constraining wind-blown sand hazards in these areas. After more than 50 years of long-term ecological studies in the Shapotou region of the Tengger Desert, we found that revegetation changed the hydrological processes of the original sand dune system through the utilization and space-time redistribution of soil water. The spatiotemporal dynamics of soil water was significantly related to the dynamics of the replanted vegetation for a given regional precipitation condition. The long-term changes in hydrological processes in desert areas also drive replanted vegetation succession. The soil water carrying capacity of vegetation and the model for sand fixation by revegetation in aeolian desert areas where precipitation levels are less than 200 mm are also discussed.

Analysis of Precipitation (Rain and Snow) Levels and Straight-line Wind Speeds in Support of the 10-year Natural Phenomena Hazards Review for Los Alamos National Laboratory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelly, Elizabeth J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Deola, Regina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-12-10

This report provides site-specific return level analyses for rain, snow, and straight-line wind extreme events. These analyses are in support of the 10-year review plan for the assessment of meteorological natural phenomena hazards at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses follow guidance from Department of Energy, DOE Standard, Natural Phenomena Hazards Analysis and Design Criteria for DOE Facilities (DOE-STD-1020-2012), Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800, 2007) and ANSI/ ANS-2.3-2011, Estimating Tornado, Hurricane, and Extreme Straight-Line Wind Characteristics at Nuclear Facility Sites. LANL precipitation and snow level data have been collected since 1910, although not all years are complete. In this report the results from the more recent data (1990–2014) are compared to those of past analyses and a 2004 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration report. Given the many differences in the data sets used in these different analyses, the lack of statistically significant differences in return level estimates increases confidence in the data and in the modeling and analysis approach.

Wind-Farm Parametrisations in Mesoscale Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

2013-01-01

In this paper we compare three wind-farm parametrisations for mesoscale models against measurement data from the Horns Rev I offshore wind-farm. The parametrisations vary from a simple rotor drag method, to more sophisticated models. Additional to (4) we investigated the horizontal resolution dep...

A high-resolution global flood hazard model

Science.gov (United States)

Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

2015-09-01

Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

Estimated airborne release of plutonium from the 102 Building at the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center, Vallecitos, California, as a result of postulated damage from severe wind and earthquake hazard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishima, J.; Ayer, J.E.; Hays, I.D.

1980-12-01

This report estimates the potential airborne releases of plutonium as a consequence of various severities of earthquake and wind hazard postulated for the 102 Building at the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center in California. The releases are based on damage scenarios developed by other specialists. The hazard severities presented range up to a nominal velocity of 230 mph for wind hazard and are in excess of 0.8 g linear acceleration for earthquakes. The consequences of thrust faulting are considered. The approaches and factors used to estimate the releases are discussed. Release estimates range from 0.003 to 3 g Pu

Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lars Christian

Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving...

Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling Installation and Decommissioning

CERN Document Server

Kaiser, Mark J

2012-01-01

Offshore wind energy is one of the most promising and fastest growing alternative energy sources in the world. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a methodological framework to assess installation and decommissioning costs, and using examples from the European experience, provides a broad review of existing processes and systems used in the offshore wind industry. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a step-by-step guide to modeling costs over four sections. These sections cover: ·Background and introductory material, ·Installation processes and vessel requirements, ·Installation cost estimation, and ·Decommissioning methods and cost estimation.  This self-contained and detailed treatment of the key principles in offshore wind development is supported throughout by visual aids and data tables. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling is a key resource for anyone interested in the offshore wind industry, particularly those interested in the technical and economic aspects of installation and decom...

Modelling the wind climate of Ireland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frank, H.P.; Landberg, L.

1997-01-01

The wind climate of Ireland has been calculated using the Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model KAMM. The climatology is represented by 65 frequency classes of geostrophic wind that were selected as equiangular direction sectors and speed intervals with equal frequency in a sector. The results...... are compared with data from the European Wind Atlas which have been analyzed using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program, WA(S)P. The prediction of the areas of higher wind power is fair. Stations with low power are overpredicted....

Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kavasseri, Rajesh G.; Seetharaman, Krithika

2009-01-01

With the integration of wind energy into electricity grids, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate wind speed/power forecasts. Accurate wind speed forecasts are necessary to schedule dispatchable generation and tariffs in the day-ahead electricity market. This paper examines the use of fractional-ARIMA or f-ARIMA models to model, and forecast wind speeds on the day-ahead (24 h) and two-day-ahead (48 h) horizons. The models are applied to wind speed records obtained from four potential wind generation sites in North Dakota. The forecasted wind speeds are used in conjunction with the power curve of an operational (NEG MICON, 750 kW) turbine to obtain corresponding forecasts of wind power production. The forecast errors in wind speed/power are analyzed and compared with the persistence model. Results indicate that significant improvements in forecasting accuracy are obtained with the proposed models compared to the persistence method. (author)

High Resolution Atmospheric Modeling for Wind Energy Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simpson, M; Bulaevskaya, V; Glascoe, L; Singer, M

2010-03-18

The ability of the WRF atmospheric model to forecast wind speed over the Nysted wind park was investigated as a function of time. It was found that in the time period we considered (August 1-19, 2008), the model is able to predict wind speeds reasonably accurately for 48 hours ahead, but that its forecast skill deteriorates rapidly after 48 hours. In addition, a preliminary analysis was carried out to investigate the impact of vertical grid resolution on the forecast skill. Our preliminary finding is that increasing vertical grid resolution does not have a significant impact on the forecast skill of the WRF model over Nysted wind park during the period we considered. Additional simulations during this period, as well as during other time periods, will be run in order to validate the results presented here. Wind speed is a difficult parameter to forecast due the interaction of large and small length scale forcing. To accurately forecast the wind speed at a given location, the model must correctly forecast the movement and strength of synoptic systems, as well as the local influence of topography / land use on the wind speed. For example, small deviations in the forecast track or strength of a large-scale low pressure system can result in significant forecast errors for local wind speeds. The purpose of this study is to provide a preliminary baseline of a high-resolution limited area model forecast performance against observations from the Nysted wind park. Validating the numerical weather prediction model performance for past forecasts will give a reasonable measure of expected forecast skill over the Nysted wind park. Also, since the Nysted Wind Park is over water and some distance from the influence of terrain, the impact of high vertical grid spacing for wind speed forecast skill will also be investigated.

Modelling and Measuring Flow and Wind Turbine Wakes in Large Wind Farms Offshore

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs

2009-01-01

power losses due to wakes and loads. The research presented is part of the EC-funded UpWind project, which aims to radically improve wind turbine and wind farm models in order to continue to improve the costs of wind energy. Reducing wake losses, or even reduce uncertainties in predicting power losses...

Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

2017-01-01

predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

Modeling Innovations Advance Wind Energy Industry

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

In 1981, Glenn Research Center scientist Dr. Larry Viterna developed a model that predicted certain elements of wind turbine performance with far greater accuracy than previous methods. The model was met with derision from others in the wind energy industry, but years later, Viterna discovered it had become the most widely used method of its kind, enabling significant wind energy technologies-like the fixed pitch turbines produced by manufacturers like Aerostar Inc. of Westport, Massachusetts-that are providing sustainable, climate friendly energy sources today.

A Dynamic Wind Generation Model for Power Systems Studies

OpenAIRE

Estanqueiro, Ana

2007-01-01

In this paper, a wind park dynamic model is presented together with a base methodology for its application to power system studies. This detailed wind generation model addresses the wind turbine components and phenomena more relevant to characterize the power quality of a grid connected wind park, as well as the wind park response to the grid fast perturbations, e.g., low voltage ride through fault. The developed model was applied to the operating conditions of the selected sets of wind turbi...

Comparing satellite SAR and wind farm wake models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Vincent, P.; Husson, R.

2015-01-01

. These extend several tens of kilometres downwind e.g. 70 km. Other SAR wind maps show near-field fine scale details of wake behind rows of turbines. The satellite SAR wind farm wake cases are modelled by different wind farm wake models including the PARK microscale model, the Weather Research and Forecasting...... (WRF) model in high resolution and WRF with coupled microscale parametrization....

Frequency weighted model predictive control of wind turbine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klauco, Martin; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Mirzaei, Mahmood

2013-01-01

This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work are the rotatio...... predictive controller are presented. Statistical comparison between frequency weighted MPC, standard MPC and baseline PI controller is shown as well.......This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work...... are the rotational degree of freedom of the rotor and the tower for-aft movement. The MPC design is based on a receding horizon policy and a linearised model of the wind turbine. Due to the change of dynamics according to wind speed, several linearisation points must be considered and the control design adjusted...

Further Results on Dynamic Additive Hazard Rate Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengcheng Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the past, the proportional and additive hazard rate models have been investigated in the works. Nanda and Das (2011 introduced and studied the dynamic proportional (reversed hazard rate model. In this paper we study the dynamic additive hazard rate model, and investigate its aging properties for different aging classes. The closure of the model under some stochastic orders has also been investigated. Some examples are also given to illustrate different aging properties and stochastic comparisons of the model.

Measuring and modelling of the wind on the scale of tall wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Floors, Rogier Ralph

The air flow in the lower atmosphere on the spatial scale of the modern wind turbines is studied. Because wind turbines are nowadays often taller than 100 m, the validity of current analytical and numerical atmospheric models has to be evaluated and more knowledge about the structure of the atmos......The air flow in the lower atmosphere on the spatial scale of the modern wind turbines is studied. Because wind turbines are nowadays often taller than 100 m, the validity of current analytical and numerical atmospheric models has to be evaluated and more knowledge about the structure...

IEA-Task 31 WAKEBENCH: Towards a protocol for wind farm flow model evaluation. Part 2: Wind farm wake models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moriarty, Patrick; Rodrigo, Javier Sanz; Gancarski, Pawel

2014-01-01

Researchers within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Task 31: Wakebench have created a framework for the evaluation of wind farm flow models operating at the microscale level. The framework consists of a model evaluation protocol integrated with a web-based portal for model benchmarking (www.......windbench.net). This paper provides an overview of the building-block validation approach applied to wind farm wake models, including best practices for the benchmarking and data processing procedures for validation datasets from wind farm SCADA and meteorological databases. A hierarchy of test cases has been proposed...

Wind-wave modelling aspects within complicate topography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Christopoulos

Full Text Available Wave forecasting aspects for basins with complicate geomorphology, such as the Aegean Sea, are investigated through an intercomparison study. The efficiency of the available wind models (ECMWF, UKMO to reproduce wind patterns over special basins, as well as three wave models incorporating different physics and characteristics (WAM, AUT, WACCAS, are tested for selected storm cases representing the typical wind situations over the basin. From the wave results, discussed in terms of time-series and statistical parameters, the crucial role is pointed out of the wind resolution and the reliability of the different wave models to estimate the wave climate in such a basin. The necessary grid resolution is also tested, while for a specific test case (December 1991 ERS-1 satellite data are compared with those of the model.

Modeling of wind turbines for power system studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petru, T.

2001-05-01

When wind turbines are installed into the electric grid, the power quality is affected. Today, strict installation recommendations often prevail due to a lack of knowledge on this subject. Consequently, it is important to predict the impact of wind turbines on the electric grid before the turbines are installed. The thesis describes relevant power quality issues, discusses different configurations of wind turbines with respect to power quality and draw requirements regarding wind turbine modeling. A model of a stall-regulated, fixed-speed wind turbine system is introduced and its power quality impact on the electric grid is evaluated. The model is verified with field measurements.

The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with

Identification of natural hazards and classification of urban areas by TOPSIS model (case study: Bandar Abbas city, Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rasool Mahdavi Najafabadi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, among multi-criteria models for complex decision-making and multiple-attribute models for assigning the most preferable choice, the technique for order preference by similarity ideal solution (TOPSIS is implied. The main objective of this research is to identify potential natural hazards in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, using TOPSIS model, which is based on an analytical hierarchy process structure. A set of 12 relevant geomorphologic parameters, including earthquake frequency, distance from the earthquake epicentre, number of faults, flood, talus creep, landslide, land subsidence, tide, hurricane and tidal wave, dust storms with external source, wind erosion and sea level fluctuations are considered to quantify inputs of the model. The outputs of this study indicate that one region, among three assessed regions, has the maximum potential occurrence of natural hazards, while it has been urbanized at a greater rate compared to other regions. Furthermore, based on Delphi method, the earthquake frequency and the landslide are the most and the least dangerous phenomena, respectively.

A combinatorial wind field model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soleimanzadeh, Maryam; Wisniewski, Rafal; Sloth, Christoffer

2010-01-01

This report is the deliverable 2.4 in the project Distributed Control of Large-Scale Oshore Wind Farms with the acronym Aeolus. The objective of this deliverable is to provide an understanding of the wind eld model and dynamic variations superimposed on the mean eld. In this report a dynamical...

Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

2017-01-01

While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....

Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kostandyan, Erik

Cost reductions for offshore wind turbines are a substantial requirement in order to make offshore wind energy more competitive compared to other energy supply methods. During the 20 – 25 years of wind turbines useful life, Operation & Maintenance costs are typically estimated to be a quarter...... and uncertainties are quantified. Further, estimation of annual failure probability for structural components taking into account possible faults in electrical or mechanical systems is considered. For a representative structural failure mode, a probabilistic model is developed that incorporates grid loss failures...

Evaluation of a micro-scale wind model's performance over realistic building clusters using wind tunnel experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ning; Du, Yunsong; Miao, Shiguang; Fang, Xiaoyi

2016-08-01

The simulation performance over complex building clusters of a wind simulation model (Wind Information Field Fast Analysis model, WIFFA) in a micro-scale air pollutant dispersion model system (Urban Microscale Air Pollution dispersion Simulation model, UMAPS) is evaluated using various wind tunnel experimental data including the CEDVAL (Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Micro-Scale Dispersion Models) wind tunnel experiment data and the NJU-FZ experiment data (Nanjing University-Fang Zhuang neighborhood wind tunnel experiment data). The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings well, and the flow patterns in urban street canyons and building clusters can also be represented. Due to the complex shapes of buildings and their distributions, the simulation deviations/discrepancies from the measurements are usually caused by the simplification of the building shapes and the determination of the key zone sizes. The computational efficiencies of different cases are also discussed in this paper. The model has a high computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical models that solve the Navier-Stokes equations, and can produce very high-resolution (1-5 m) wind fields of a complex neighborhood scale urban building canopy (~ 1 km ×1 km) in less than 3 min when run on a personal computer.

Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuting Wan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Natural wind is stochastic, being characterized by its speed and direction which change randomly and frequently. Because of the certain lag in control systems and the yaw body itself, wind turbines cannot be accurately aligned toward the wind direction when the wind speed and wind direction change frequently. Thus, wind turbines often suffer from a series of engineering issues during operation, including frequent yaw, vibration overruns and downtime. This paper aims to study the effects of yaw error on wind turbine running characteristics at different wind speeds and control stages by establishing a wind turbine model, yaw error model and the equivalent wind speed model that includes the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Formulas for the relevant effect coefficients Tc, Sc and Pc were derived. The simulation results indicate that the effects of the aerodynamic torque, rotor speed and power output due to yaw error at different running stages are different and that the effect rules for each coefficient are not identical when the yaw error varies. These results may provide theoretical support for optimizing the yaw control strategies for each stage to increase the running stability of wind turbines and the utilization rate of wind energy.

Forecasting wind power production from a wind farm using the RAMS model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tiriolo, L.; Torcasio, R. C.; Montesanti, S.

2015-01-01

of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), whose horizontal resolution over Central Italy is about 25 km at the time considered in this paper. Because wind observations were not available for the site, the power curve for the whole wind farm was derived from the ECMWF wind operational analyses available......The importance of wind power forecast is commonly recognized because it represents a useful tool for grid integration and facilitates the energy trading. This work considers an example of power forecast for a wind farm in the Apennines in Central Italy. The orography around the site is complex...... and the horizontal resolution of the wind forecast has an important role. To explore this point we compared the performance of two 48 h wind power forecasts using the winds predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for the year 2011. The two forecasts differ only for the horizontal resolution...

Development of an Integrated Water and Wind Erosion Model

Science.gov (United States)

Flanagan, D. C.; Ascough, J. C.; Wagner, L. E.; Geter, W. F.

2006-12-01

Prediction technologies for soil erosion by the forces of wind or water have largely been developed independently from one another, especially within the United States. Much of this has been due to the initial creation of equations and models which were empirical in nature (i.e., Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wind Erosion Equation) and based upon separate water erosion or wind erosion plot and field measurements. Additionally, institutional organizations in place typically divided research efforts and funding to unique wind or water erosion research and modeling projects. However, during the past 20 years computer technologies and erosion modeling have progressed to the point where it is now possible to merge physical process-based computer simulation models into an integrated water and wind erosion prediction system. In a physically- based model, many of the processes which must be simulated for wind and water erosion computations are the same, e.g., climate, water balance, runoff, plant growth, etc. Model components which specifically deal with the wind or water detachment, transport and deposition processes are those that must differ, as well as any necessary parameterization of input variables (e.g., adjusted soil erodibilities, critical shear stresses, etc.) for those components. This presentation describes current efforts towards development of a combined wind and water erosion model, based in part upon technologies present in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) models. Initial efforts during the past two years have resulted in modular modeling components that allow for prediction of infiltration, surface runoff, and water erosion at a hillslope scale within an Object Modeling System. Additional components currently in development include wind detachment at a single field point, continuous water balance, and unified plant growth. Challenges in this project are many, and include adequate field

Empirical models of wind conditions on Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Buccola, Norman L.; Wood, Tamara M.

2010-01-01

Upper Klamath Lake is a large (230 square kilometers), shallow (mean depth 2.8 meters at full pool) lake in southern Oregon. Lake circulation patterns are driven largely by wind, and the resulting currents affect the water quality and ecology of the lake. To support hydrodynamic modeling of the lake and statistical investigations of the relation between wind and lake water-quality measurements, the U.S. Geological Survey has monitored wind conditions along the lakeshore and at floating raft sites in the middle of the lake since 2005. In order to make the existing wind archive more useful, this report summarizes the development of empirical wind models that serve two purposes: (1) to fill short (on the order of hours or days) wind data gaps at raft sites in the middle of the lake, and (2) to reconstruct, on a daily basis, over periods of months to years, historical wind conditions at U.S. Geological Survey sites prior to 2005. Empirical wind models based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multivariate-Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) algorithms were compared. ANNs were better suited to simulating the 10-minute wind data that are the dependent variables of the gap-filling models, but the simpler MARS algorithm may be adequate to accurately simulate the daily wind data that are the dependent variables of the historical wind models. To further test the accuracy of the gap-filling models, the resulting simulated winds were used to force the hydrodynamic model of the lake, and the resulting simulated currents were compared to measurements from an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The error statistics indicated that the simulation of currents was degraded as compared to when the model was forced with observed winds, but probably is adequate for short gaps in the data of a few days or less. Transport seems to be less affected by the use of the simulated winds in place of observed winds. The simulated tracer concentration was similar between model results when

ARIMA-Based Time Series Model of Stochastic Wind Power Generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Peiyuan; Pedersen, Troels; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a stochastic wind power model based on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process. The model takes into account the nonstationarity and physical limits of stochastic wind power generation. The model is constructed based on wind power measurement of one year from...... the Nysted offshore wind farm in Denmark. The proposed limited-ARIMA (LARIMA) model introduces a limiter and characterizes the stochastic wind power generation by mean level, temporal correlation and driving noise. The model is validated against the measurement in terms of temporal correlation...... and probability distribution. The LARIMA model outperforms a first-order transition matrix based discrete Markov model in terms of temporal correlation, probability distribution and model parameter number. The proposed LARIMA model is further extended to include the monthly variation of the stochastic wind power...

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aiqing Kang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

Wind Farm-LA Coordinated Operation Mode and Dispatch Model in Wind Power Accommodation Promotion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Lin

2018-05-01

Full Text Available With the support of a smart grid, a load aggregator (LA that aggregates the demand response resources of small- and medium-sized customers to participate in the electricity market would be a novel way to promote wind power accommodation. This paper proposes a wind farm–LA coordinated operation mode (WLCOM, which enables LAs to deal with wind farms directly at an agreement price. Afterwards, according to the accommodation demand of the wind farm, a coordinated dispatch model taking advantage of the various response capabilities of different flexible loads is set up to maximize the revenue of the LA. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed WLCOM and the coordinated dispatch model. The demonstration indicates that: (a load fluctuations and wind curtailment were obviously reduced; and (b both the LA and the wind farm participating in coordinated operation obtained higher revenues. Factors that influence the accommodation level, as well as revenues of wind farms and LA, are also investigated.

A VERSATILE FAMILY OF GALACTIC WIND MODELS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bustard, Chad; Zweibel, Ellen G. [Physics Department, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1150 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); D’Onghia, Elena, E-mail: bustard@wisc.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2535 Sterling Hall, 475 N. Charter Street, Madison, WI 53706 (United States)

2016-03-01

We present a versatile family of model galactic outflows including non-uniform mass and energy source distributions, a gravitational potential from an extended mass source, and radiative losses. The model easily produces steady-state wind solutions for a range of mass-loading factors, energy-loading factors, galaxy mass, and galaxy radius. We find that, with radiative losses included, highly mass-loaded winds must be driven at high central temperatures, whereas low mass-loaded winds can be driven at low temperatures just above the peak of the cooling curve, meaning radiative losses can drastically affect the wind solution even for low mass-loading factors. By including radiative losses, we are able to show that subsonic flows can be ignored as a possible mechanism for expelling mass and energy from a galaxy compared to the more efficient transonic solutions. Specifically, the transonic solutions with low mass loading and high energy loading are the most efficient. Our model also produces low-temperature, high-velocity winds that could explain the prevalence of low-temperature material in observed outflows. Finally, we show that our model, unlike the well-known Chevalier and Clegg model, can reproduce the observed linear relationship between wind X-ray luminosity and star formation rate (SFR) over a large range of SFR from 1–1000 M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} assuming the wind mass-loading factor is higher for low-mass, and hence, low-SFR galaxies. We also constrain the allowed mass-loading factors that can fit the observed X-ray luminosity versus SFR trend, further suggesting an inverse relationship between mass loading and SFR as explored in advanced numerical simulations.

Wind Turbine Model and Observer in Takagi-Sugeno Model Structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georg, Sören; Müller, Matthias; Schulte, Horst

2014-01-01

Based on a reduced-order, dynamic nonlinear wind turbine model in Takagi- Sugeno (TS) model structure, a TS state observer is designed as a disturbance observer to estimate the unknown effective wind speed. The TS observer model is an exact representation of the underlying nonlinear model, obtained by means of the sector-nonlinearity approach. The observer gain matrices are obtained by means of a linear matrix inequality (LMI) design approach for optimal fuzzy control, where weighting matrices for the individual system states and outputs are included. The observer is tested in simulations with the aero-elastic code FAST for the NREL 5 MW reference turbine, where it shows a stable behaviour in turbulent wind simulations

Unsteady aerodynamic modelling of wind turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coton, F.N.; Galbraith, R.A. [Univ. og Glasgow, Dept. of Aerospace Engineering, Glasgow (United Kingdom)

1997-08-01

The following current and future work is discussed: Collaborative wind tunnel based PIV project to study wind turbine wake structures in head-on and yawed flow. Prescribed wake model has been embedded in a source panel representation of the wind tunnel walls to allow comparison with experiment; Modelling of tower shadow using high resolution but efficient vortex model in tower shadow domain; Extension of model to yawing flow; Upgrading and tuning of unsteady aerodynamic model for low speed, thick airfoil flows. Glasgow has a considerable collection of low speed dynamic stall data. Currently, the Leishman - Beddoes model is not ideally suited to such flows. For example: Range of stall onset criteria used for dynamic stall prediction including Beddoes. Wide variation of stall onset prediction. Beddoes representation was developed primarily with reference to compressible flows. Analyses of low speed data from Glasgow indicate deficiencies in the current model; Predicted versus measured response during ramp down motion. Modification of the Beddoes representation is required to obtain a fit with the measured data. (EG)

Wind erosion modelling in a Sahelian environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Faye-Visser, S.M.; Sterk, G.; Karssenberg, D.

2005-01-01

In the Sahel field observations of wind-blown mass transport often show considerable spatial variation related to the spatial variation of the wind erosion controlling parameters, e.g. soil crust and vegetation cover. A model, used to predict spatial variation in wind erosion and deposition is a

Probabilistic Harmonic Modeling of Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim H.; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

2017-01-01

A probabilistic sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a grid-connected voltage-source converter is used to estimate harmonic emissions in a wind power plant (WPP) comprised of Type-IV wind turbines. The SD representation naturally partitioned converter generated voltage harmonics into those...... with deterministic phase and those with probabilistic phase. A case study performed on a string of ten 3MW, Type-IV wind turbines implemented in PSCAD was used to verify the probabilistic SD harmonic model. The probabilistic SD harmonic model can be employed in the planning phase of WPP projects to assess harmonic...

Modeling and Simulation of a 12 MW Wind Farm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GROZA, V.

2010-05-01

Full Text Available The installation of wind turbines in power systems has developed rapidly through the last 20 years. In this paper a complete simulation model of a 6 x 2 MW wind turbines is presented using data from a wind farm installed in Denmark. A model of the wind turbine with cage-rotor induction generator is presented in details. A set of simulations are performed and they show that it is possible to simulate a complete wind farm from wind to the grid. The simulation tool can also be used to simulate bigger wind farms connected to the grid.

Low-order aeroelastic models of wind turbines for controller design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sønderby, Ivan Bergquist

Wind turbine controllers are used to optimize the performance of wind turbines such as to reduce power variations and fatigue and extreme loads on wind turbine components. Accurate tuning and design of modern controllers must be done using low-order models that accurately captures the aeroelastic...... response of the wind turbine. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the necessary model complexity required in aeroelastic models used for controller design and to analyze and propose methods to design low-order aeroelastic wind turbine models that are suited for model-based control design....... The thesis contains a characterization of the dynamics that influence the open-loop aeroelastic frequency response of a modern wind turbine, based on a high-order aeroelastic wind turbine model. One main finding is that the transfer function from collective pitch to generator speed is affected by two low...

Model-based control of a ballast-stabilized floating wind turbine exposed to wind and waves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Christiansen, Soeren

2013-01-15

The wind turbine is a commercial product which is competing against other sources of energy, such as coal and gas. This competition drives a constant development to reduce costs and improve efficiency in order to reduce the total cost of the energy. The latest offshore development is the floating wind turbine, for water depths beyond 50 meters where winds are stronger and less turbulent. A floating wind turbine is subject to not only aerodynamics and wind induced loads, but also to hydrodynamics and wave induced loads. In contrast to a bottom fixed wind turbine, the floating structure, the hydrodynamics and the loads change the dynamic behavior of a floating wind turbine. Consequently, conventional wind turbine control cause instabilities on floating wind turbines. This work addresses the control of a floating spar buoy wind turbine, and focuses on the impact of the additional platform dynamics. A time varying control model is presented based on the wind speed and wave frequency. Estimates of the wind speed and wave frequency are used as scheduling variables in a gain scheduled linear quadratic controller to improve the electrical power production while reducing fatigue. To address the problem of negative damped fore-aft tower motion, additional control loops are suggested which stabilize the response of the onshore controller and reduce the impact of the wave induced loads. This research is then extended to model predictive control, to further address wave disturbances. In the context of control engineering, the dynamics and disturbances of a floating wind turbine have been identified and modeled. The objectives of maximizing the production of electrical power and minimizing fatigue have been reached by using advanced methods of estimation and control. (Author)

Dynamic modeling and simulation of wind turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghafari Seadat, M.H.; Kheradmand Keysami, M.; Lari, H.R.

2002-01-01

Using wind energy for generating electricity in wind turbines is a good way for using renewable energies. It can also help to protect the environment. The main objective of this paper is dynamic modeling by energy method and simulation of a wind turbine aided by computer. In this paper, the equations of motion are extracted for simulating the system of wind turbine and then the behavior of the system become obvious by solving the equations. The turbine is considered with three blade rotor in wind direction, induced generator that is connected to the network and constant revolution for simulation of wind turbine. Every part of the wind turbine should be simulated for simulation of wind turbine. The main parts are blades, gearbox, shafts and generator

Robust Model Predictive Control of a Wind Turbine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mirzaei, Mahmood; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

2012-01-01

In this work the problem of robust model predictive control (robust MPC) of a wind turbine in the full load region is considered. A minimax robust MPC approach is used to tackle the problem. Nonlinear dynamics of the wind turbine are derived by combining blade element momentum (BEM) theory...... of the uncertain system is employed and a norm-bounded uncertainty model is used to formulate a minimax model predictive control. The resulting optimization problem is simplified by semidefinite relaxation and the controller obtained is applied on a full complexity, high fidelity wind turbine model. Finally...... and first principle modeling of the turbine flexible structure. Thereafter the nonlinear model is linearized using Taylor series expansion around system operating points. Operating points are determined by effective wind speed and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is employed to estimate this. In addition...

Model predictive control of wind energy conversion systems

CERN Document Server

Yaramasu, Venkata Narasimha R

2017-01-01

The authors provide a comprehensive analysis on the model predictive control of power converters employed in a wide variety of variable-speed wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The contents of this book includes an overview of wind energy system configurations, power converters for variable-speed WECS, digital control techniques, MPC, modeling of power converters and wind generators for MPC design. Other topics include the mapping of continuous-time models to discrete-time models by various exact, approximate, and quasi-exact discretization methods, modeling and control of wind turbine grid-side two-level and multilevel voltage source converters. The authors also focus on the MPC of several power converter configurations for full variable-speed permanent magnet synchronous generator based WECS, squirrel-cage induction generator based WECS, and semi-variable-speed doubly fed induction generator based WECS.

Modeling of wind turbines with doubly fed generator system

CERN Document Server

Fortmann, Jens

2014-01-01

Jens Fortmann describes the deduction of models for the grid integration of variable speed wind turbines and the reactive power control design of wind plants. The modeling part is intended as background to understand the theory, capabilities and limitations of the generic doubly fed generator and full converter wind turbine models described in the IEC 61400-27-1 and as 2nd generation WECC models that are used as standard library models of wind turbines for grid simulation software. Focus of the reactive power control part is a deduction of the origin and theory behind the reactive current requ

Multi-hazard approaches to civil infrastructure engineering

CERN Document Server

LaFave, James

2016-01-01

This collection focuses on the development of novel approaches to address one of the most pressing challenges of civil engineering, namely the mitigation of natural hazards. Numerous engineering books to date have focused on, and illustrate considerable progress toward, mitigation of individual hazards (earthquakes, wind, and so forth.). The current volume addresses concerns related to overall safety, sustainability and resilience of the built environment when subject to multiple hazards: natural disaster events that are concurrent and either correlated (e.g., wind and surge); uncorrelated (e.g., earthquake and flood); cascading (e.g., fire following earthquake); or uncorrelated and occurring at different times (e.g., wind and earthquake). The authors examine a range of specific topics including methodologies for vulnerability assessment of structures, new techniques to reduce the system demands through control systems; instrumentation, monitoring and condition assessment of structures and foundations; new te...

Modelling of offshore wind turbine wakes with the wind farm program FLaP

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lange, B.; Waldl, H.P.; Guerrero, A.G.

2003-01-01

The wind farm layout program FLaP estimates the wind speed at any point in a wind farm and the power output of the turbines. The ambient flow conditions and the properties of the turbines and the farm are used as input. The core of the program is an axisymmetric wake model describing the wake...

Designsafe-Ci a Cyberinfrastructure for Natural Hazard Simulation and Data

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, C.; Rathje, E.; Stanzione, D.; Padgett, J.; Pinelli, J. P.

2017-12-01

DesignSafe is the web-based research platform of the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) network that provides the computational tools needed to manage and analyze critical data for natural hazards research, with wind and storm surge related hazards being a primary focus. One of the simulation tools under DesignSafe is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model, a coastal ocean model used in storm surge analysis. ADCIRC is an unstructured, finite element model with high resolution capabilities for studying storm surge impacts, and has long been used in storm surge hind-casting and forecasting. In this talk, we will demonstrate the use of ADCIRC within the DesignSafe platform and its use for forecasting Hurricane Harvey. We will also demonstrate how to analyze, visualize and archive critical storm surge related data within DesignSafe.

On wake modeling, wind-farm gradients and AEP predictions at the Anholt wind farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Ott, Søren

2017-01-01

of the mesoscale simulations and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), we show that for westerly flow in particular, there is a clear horizontal wind-speed gradient over the wind farm. We also use the mesoscale simulations to derive the undisturbed inflow conditions that are coupled with three commonly....... When looking at westerly flow wake cases, where the impact of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on the power of the undisturbed turbines is largest, the wake models agree with the SCADA fairly well; when looking at a southerly flow case, where the wake losses are highest, the wake models tend...... to underestimate the wake loss. With the mesoscale-wake model setup, we are also able to estimate the capacity factor of the wind farm rather well when compared to that derived from the SCADA. Finally, we estimate the uncertainty of the wake models by bootstrapping the SCADA. The models tend to underestimate...

Stochastic Modeling of Wind Derivatives in Energy Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred Espen Benth

2018-05-01

Full Text Available We model the logarithm of the spot price of electricity with a normal inverse Gaussian (NIG process and the wind speed and wind power production with two Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. In order to reproduce the correlation between the spot price and the wind power production, namely between a pure jump process and a continuous path process, respectively, we replace the small jumps of the NIG process by a Brownian term. We then apply our models to two different problems: first, to study from the stochastic point of view the income from a wind power plant, as the expected value of the product between the electricity spot price and the amount of energy produced; then, to construct and price a European put-type quanto option in the wind energy markets that allows the buyer to hedge against low prices and low wind power production in the plant. Calibration of the proposed models and related price formulas is also provided, according to specific datasets.

Accurate wind farm development and operation. Advanced wake modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brand, A.; Bot, E.; Ozdemir, H. [ECN Unit Wind Energy, P.O. Box 1, NL 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Steinfeld, G.; Drueke, S.; Schmidt, M. [ForWind, Center for Wind Energy Research, Carl von Ossietzky Universitaet Oldenburg, D-26129 Oldenburg (Germany); Mittelmeier, N. REpower Systems SE, D-22297 Hamburg (Germany))

2013-11-15

The ability is demonstrated to calculate wind farm wakes on the basis of ambient conditions that were calculated with an atmospheric model. Specifically, comparisons are described between predicted and observed ambient conditions, and between power predictions from three wind farm wake models and power measurements, for a single and a double wake situation. The comparisons are based on performance indicators and test criteria, with the objective to determine the percentage of predictions that fall within a given range about the observed value. The Alpha Ventus site is considered, which consists of a wind farm with the same name and the met mast FINO1. Data from the 6 REpower wind turbines and the FINO1 met mast were employed. The atmospheric model WRF predicted the ambient conditions at the location and the measurement heights of the FINO1 mast. May the predictability of the wind speed and the wind direction be reasonable if sufficiently sized tolerances are employed, it is fairly impossible to predict the ambient turbulence intensity and vertical shear. Three wind farm wake models predicted the individual turbine powers: FLaP-Jensen and FLaP-Ainslie from ForWind Oldenburg, and FarmFlow from ECN. The reliabilities of the FLaP-Ainslie and the FarmFlow wind farm wake models are of equal order, and higher than FLaP-Jensen. Any difference between the predictions from these models is most clear in the double wake situation. Here FarmFlow slightly outperforms FLaP-Ainslie.

Wind Farm Wake Models From Full Scale Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas

2012-01-01

This investigation is part of the EU FP7 project “Distributed Control of Large-Scale Offshore Wind Farms”. The overall goal in this project is to develop wind farm controllers giving power set points to individual turbines in the farm in order to minimise mechanical loads and optimise power. One...... on real full scale data. The modelling is based on so called effective wind speed. It is shown that there is a wake for a wind direction range of up to 20 degrees. Further, when accounting for the wind direction it is shown that the two model structures considered can both fit the experimental data...

Wind-Climate Estimation Based on Mesoscale and Microscale Modeling: Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling for Wind Energy Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Badger, Jake; Frank, Helmut; Hahmann, Andrea N.

2014-01-01

This paper demonstrates that a statistical dynamical method can be used to accurately estimate the wind climate at a wind farm site. In particular, postprocessing of mesoscale model output allows an efficient calculation of the local wind climate required for wind resource estimation at a wind...

Design and evaluation guidelines for Department of Energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, R.P.; Short, S.A.; McDonald, J.R.; McCann, M.W. Jr.; Murray, R.C.; Hill, J.R.

1990-06-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) and the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Panel have developed uniform design and evaluation guidelines for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of the guidelines is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. The guidelines apply to both new facilities (design) and existing facilities (evaluation, modification, and upgrading). The intended audience is primarily the civil/structural or mechanical engineers conducting the design or evaluation of DOE facilities. The likelihood of occurrence of natural phenomena hazards at each DOE site has been evaluated by the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazard Program. Probabilistic hazard models are available for earthquake, extreme wind/tornado, and flood. Alternatively, site organizations are encouraged to develop site-specific hazard models utilizing the most recent information and techniques available. In this document, performance goals and natural hazard levels are expressed in probabilistic terms, and design and evaluation procedures are presented in deterministic terms. Design/evaluation procedures conform closely to common standard practices so that the procedures will be easily understood by most engineers. Performance goals are expressed in terms of structure or equipment damage to the extent that: (1) the facility cannot function; (2) the facility would need to be replaced; or (3) personnel are endangered. 82 refs., 12 figs., 18 tabs

Design and evaluation guidelines for Department of Energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kennedy, R.P. (Structural Mechanics Consulting, Inc., Yorba Linda, CA (USA)); Short, S.A. (ABB Impell Corp., Mission Viejo, CA (USA)); McDonald, J.R. (Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (USA)); McCann, M.W. Jr. (Benjamin (J.R.) and Associates, Inc., Mountain View, CA (USA)); Murray, R.C. (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)); Hill, J.R. (USDOE Assistant Secretary for Environment, Safety, and He

1990-06-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) and the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Panel have developed uniform design and evaluation guidelines for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of the guidelines is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. The guidelines apply to both new facilities (design) and existing facilities (evaluation, modification, and upgrading). The intended audience is primarily the civil/structural or mechanical engineers conducting the design or evaluation of DOE facilities. The likelihood of occurrence of natural phenomena hazards at each DOE site has been evaluated by the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazard Program. Probabilistic hazard models are available for earthquake, extreme wind/tornado, and flood. Alternatively, site organizations are encouraged to develop site-specific hazard models utilizing the most recent information and techniques available. In this document, performance goals and natural hazard levels are expressed in probabilistic terms, and design and evaluation procedures are presented in deterministic terms. Design/evaluation procedures conform closely to common standard practices so that the procedures will be easily understood by most engineers. Performance goals are expressed in terms of structure or equipment damage to the extent that: (1) the facility cannot function; (2) the facility would need to be replaced; or (3) personnel are endangered. 82 refs., 12 figs., 18 tabs.

Model Predictive Control with Constraints of a Wind Turbine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

2007-01-01

Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure a...... an efficient control of the wind turbine over the entire range of wind speeds. Both onshore and floating offshore wind turbines are tested with the controllers.......Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure...

An aerodynamic noise propagation model for wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhu, Wei Jun; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Shen, Wen Zhong

2005-01-01

A model based on 2-D sound ray theory for aerodynamic noise propagation from wind turbine rotating blades is introduced. The model includes attenuation factors from geometric spreading, sound directivity of source, air absorption, ground deflection and reflection, as well as effects from temperat......A model based on 2-D sound ray theory for aerodynamic noise propagation from wind turbine rotating blades is introduced. The model includes attenuation factors from geometric spreading, sound directivity of source, air absorption, ground deflection and reflection, as well as effects from...... temperature and airflow. At a given receiver point, the sound pressure is corrected by taking into account these propagation effects. As an overall assumption, the noise field generated by the wind turbine is simplified as a point source placed at the hub height of the wind turbine. This assumtion...... is reasonable, for the receiver is located in the far field, at distances from the wind turbine that are much longer than the diameter of the rotor....

Simulation analysis of a wind farm with different aggregated models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, H.; Wang, H.; Zhao, B.

2011-01-01

Based on a wind farm including wind turbines with squirrel cage induction generators (SCIGs), different aggregated models of a wind farm, such as a single weighted average model, a reduced-order re-scaled model, a parameter transformed model and a single weighted arithmetic model were presented, ...

Earth aeolian wind streaks: Comparison to wind data from model and stations

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen-Zada, A. L.; Maman, S.; Blumberg, D. G.

2017-05-01

Wind streak is a collective term for a variety of aeolian features that display distinctive albedo surface patterns. Wind streaks have been used to map near-surface winds and to estimate atmospheric circulation patterns on Mars and Venus. However, because wind streaks have been studied mostly on Mars and Venus, much of the knowledge regarding the mechanism and time frame of their formation and their relationship to the atmospheric circulation cannot be verified. This study aims to validate previous studies' results by a comparison of real and modeled wind data with wind streak orientations as measured from remote-sensing images. Orientations of Earth wind streaks were statistically correlated to resultant drift direction (RDD) values calculated from reanalysis and wind data from 621 weather stations. The results showed good agreement between wind streak orientations and reanalysis RDD (r = 0.78). A moderate correlation was found between the wind streak orientations and the weather station data (r = 0.47); a similar trend was revealed on a regional scale when the analysis was performed by continent, with r ranging from 0.641 in North America to 0.922 in Antarctica. At sites where wind streak orientations did not correspond to the RDDs (i.e., a difference of 45°), seasonal and diurnal variations in the wind flow were found to be responsible for deviation from the global pattern. The study thus confirms that Earth wind streaks were formed by the present wind regime and they are indeed indicative of the long-term prevailing wind direction on global and regional scales.

Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

A model to predict the power output from wind farms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

1997-12-31

This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

Modeling wind energy potential in a data-poor region: A geographic information systems model for Iraq

Science.gov (United States)

Khayyat, Abdulkareem Hawta Abdullah Kak Ahmed

Scope and Method of Study: Most developing countries, including Iraq, have very poor wind data. Existing wind speed measurements of poor quality may therefore be a poor guide to where to look for the best wind resources. The main focus of this study is to examine how effectively a GIS spatial model estimates wind power potential in regions where high-quality wind data are very scarce, such as Iraq. The research used a mixture of monthly and hourly wind data from 39 meteorological stations. The study applied spatial analysis statistics and GIS techniques in modeling wind power potential. The model weighted important human, environmental and geographic factors that impact wind turbine siting, such as roughness length, land use⪉nd cover type, airport locations, road access, transmission lines, slope and aspect. Findings and Conclusions: The GIS model provided estimations for wind speed and wind power density and identified suitable areas for wind power projects. Using a high resolution (30*30m) digital elevation model DEM improved the GIS wind suitability model. The model identified areas suitable for wind farm development on different scales. The model showed that there are many locations available for large-scale wind turbines in the southern part of Iraq. Additionally, there are many places in central and northern parts (Kurdistan Region) for smaller scale wind turbine placement.

Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

2016-03-01

Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

Empirical models for predicting wind potential for wind energy applications in rural locations of Nigeria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Odo, F.C. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Akubue, G.U.; Offiah, S.U.; Ugwuoke, P.E. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria)

2013-07-01

In this paper, we use the correlation between the average wind speed and ambient temperature to develop models for predicting wind potentials for two Nigerian locations. Assuming that the troposphere is a typical heterogeneous mixture of ideal gases, we find that for the studied locations, wind speed clearly correlates with ambient temperature in a simple polynomial of 3rd degree. The coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error of the models are 0.81; 0.0024 and 0.56; 0.0041, respectively, for Enugu (6.40N; 7.50E) and Owerri (5.50N; 7.00E). These results suggest that the temperature-based model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, in predicting wind potentials needed for preliminary design assessment of wind energy conversion devices for the locations and others with similar meteorological conditions.

Aggregated Wind Park Models for Analysing Power System Dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poeller, Markus; Achilles, Sebastian [DIgSILENT GmbH, Gomaringen (Germany)

2003-11-01

The increasing amount of wind power generation in European power systems requires stability analysis considering interaction between wind-farms and transmission systems. Dynamics introduced by dispersed wind generators at the distribution level can usually be neglected. However, large on- and offshore wind farms have a considerable influence to power system dynamics and must definitely be considered for analyzing power system dynamics. Compared to conventional power stations, wind power plants consist of a large number of generators of small size. Therefore, representing every wind generator individually increases the calculation time of dynamic simulations considerably. Therefore, model aggregation techniques should be applied for reducing calculation times. This paper presents aggregated models for wind parks consisting of fixed or variable speed wind generators.

Reduced-order modelling of wind turbines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elkington, K.; Slootweg, J.G.; Ghandhari, M.; Kling, W.L.; Ackermann, T.

2012-01-01

In this chapter power system dynamics simulation(PSDS) isused to study the dynamics of large-scale power systems. It is necessary to incorporate models of wind turbine generating systems into PSDS software packages in order to analyse the impact of high wind power penetration on electrical power

Variable slip wind generator modeling for real-time simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gagnon, R.; Brochu, J.; Turmel, G. [Hydro-Quebec, Varennes, PQ (Canada). IREQ

2006-07-01

A model of a wind turbine using a variable slip wound-rotor induction machine was presented. The model was created as part of a library of generic wind generator models intended for wind integration studies. The stator winding of the wind generator was connected directly to the grid and the rotor was driven by the turbine through a drive train. The variable resistors was synthesized by an external resistor in parallel with a diode rectifier. A forced-commutated power electronic device (IGBT) was connected to the wound rotor by slip rings and brushes. Simulations were conducted in a Matlab/Simulink environment using SimPowerSystems blocks to model power systems elements and Simulink blocks to model the turbine, control system and drive train. Detailed descriptions of the turbine, the drive train and the control system were provided. The model's implementation in the simulator was also described. A case study demonstrating the real-time simulation of a wind generator connected at the distribution level of a power system was presented. Results of the case study were then compared with results obtained from the SimPowerSystems off-line simulation. Results showed good agreement between the waveforms, demonstrating the conformity of the real-time and the off-line simulations. The capability of Hypersim for real-time simulation of wind turbines with power electronic converters in a distribution network was demonstrated. It was concluded that hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation of wind turbine controllers for wind integration studies in power systems is now feasible. 5 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

A Hybrid Wind-Farm Parametrization for Mesoscale and Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Yang; Archer, Cristina L.

2018-04-01

To better understand the potential impact of wind farms on weather and climate at the regional to global scales, a new hybrid wind-farm parametrization is proposed for mesoscale and climate models. The proposed parametrization is a hybrid model because it is not based on physical processes or conservation laws, but on the multiple linear regression of the results of large-eddy simulations (LES) with the geometric properties of the wind-farm layout (e.g., the blockage ratio and blockage distance). The innovative aspect is that each wind turbine is treated individually based on its position in the farm and on the wind direction by predicting the velocity upstream of each turbine. The turbine-induced forces and added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) are first derived analytically and then implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized simulations of the offshore Lillgrund wind farm are conducted. The wind-speed deficit and TKE predicted with the hybrid model are in excellent agreement with those from the LES results, while the wind-power production estimated with the hybrid model is within 10% of that observed. Three additional wind farms with larger inter-turbine spacing than at Lillgrund are also considered, and a similar agreement with LES results is found, proving that the hybrid parametrization works well with any wind farm regardless of the spacing between turbines. These results indicate the wind-turbine position, wind direction, and added TKE are essential in accounting for the wind-farm effects on the surroundings, for which the hybrid wind-farm parametrization is a promising tool.

Wind turbines and health

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rideout, K.; Copes, R.; Bos, C.

2010-01-01

This document summarized the potential health hazards associated with wind turbines, such as noise and low frequency sound, vibration and infrasound; electromagnetic fields (EMF); shadow flicker; and ice throw and structural failure. Various symptoms can be attributed to wind turbines, including dizziness, sleep disruption, and headaches. A review of available research regarding potential health affects to residents living in close proximity to wind turbines showed that the sound level associated with wind turbines at common residential setbacks is not sufficient to damage hearing, but may lead to annoyance and sleep disturbance. Research has shown that wind turbines are not a significant source of EMF exposure, and although shadows caused by the blades may be annoying, they are not likely to cause epileptic seizures at normal operational speeds. The risk of injury from ice throw can be minimized with setbacks of 200 to 400 m. Examples of Canadian wind turbine setback guidelines and regulations were also offered. It was concluded that setbacks and operational guidelines can be utilized in combination to address safety hazards, sound levels, land use issues, and impacts on people. 46 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, A.C.; Jauch, C.; Soerensen, P.; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.

2003-12-01

The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. However, the main attention in this report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of two wind turbine concepts: 1. Active stall wind turbine with induction generator 2. Variable speed, variable pitch wind turbine with doubly fed induction generator. These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. For both these two concepts, control strategies are developed and implemented, their performance assessed and discussed by means of simulations. (au)

Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, A.D.; Jauch, C.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

2004-01-01

. This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The reportprovides a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level......-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). Theinitialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. However, the main attention in this report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of two wind turbine concepts: 1...... of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. For both these two concepts, control strategies are developed and implemented, their performance assessed and discussed by means of simulations....

Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, A.D.; Iov, F.; Soerensen, Poul.; Cutululis, N.; Jauch, C.; Blaabjerg, F.

2007-08-15

This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risoe-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database built-op and developed during several national research projects, carried out at Risoe DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy and Aalborg University, in the period 2001-2007. The overall objective of these projects was to create a wind turbine model database able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. The main attention in the report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of the following wind turbine concepts: (1) Fixed speed active stall wind turbine concept (2) Variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept (3) Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine

LiDAR-based 2D Localization and Mapping System using Elliptical Distance Correction Models for UAV Wind Turbine Blade Inspection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nikolov, Ivan Adriyanov; Madsen, Claus B.

2017-01-01

The wind energy sector faces a constant need for annual inspections of wind turbine blades for damage, erosion and cracks. These inspections are an important part of the wind turbine life cycle and can be very costly and hazardous to specialists. This has led to the use of automated drone inspect...

Active Subspaces for Wind Plant Surrogate Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

King, Ryan N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Quick, Julian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dykes, Katherine L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Adcock, Christiane [Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2018-01-12

Understanding the uncertainty in wind plant performance is crucial to their cost-effective design and operation. However, conventional approaches to uncertainty quantification (UQ), such as Monte Carlo techniques or surrogate modeling, are often computationally intractable for utility-scale wind plants because of poor congergence rates or the curse of dimensionality. In this paper we demonstrate that wind plant power uncertainty can be well represented with a low-dimensional active subspace, thereby achieving a significant reduction in the dimension of the surrogate modeling problem. We apply the active sub-spaces technique to UQ of plant power output with respect to uncertainty in turbine axial induction factors, and find a single active subspace direction dominates the sensitivity in power output. When this single active subspace direction is used to construct a quadratic surrogate model, the number of model unknowns can be reduced by up to 3 orders of magnitude without compromising performance on unseen test data. We conclude that the dimension reduction achieved with active subspaces makes surrogate-based UQ approaches tractable for utility-scale wind plants.

A high resolution WRF model for wind energy forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Vincent, Claire Louise; Liu, Yubao

2010-05-01

The increasing penetration of wind energy into national electricity markets has increased the demand for accurate surface layer wind forecasts. There has recently been a focus on forecasting the wind at wind farm sites using both statistical models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent advances in computing capacity and non-hydrostatic NWP models means that it is possible to nest mesoscale models down to Large Eddy Simulation (LES) scales over the spatial area of a typical wind farm. For example, the WRF model (Skamarock 2008) has been run at a resolution of 123 m over a wind farm site in complex terrain in Colorado (Liu et al. 2009). Although these modelling attempts indicate a great hope for applying such models for detailed wind forecasts over wind farms, one of the obvious challenges of running the model at this resolution is that while some boundary layer structures are expected to be modelled explicitly, boundary layer eddies into the inertial sub-range can only be partly captured. Therefore, the amount and nature of sub-grid-scale mixing that is required is uncertain. Analysis of Liu et al. (2009) modelling results in comparison to wind farm observations indicates that unrealistic wind speed fluctuations with a period of around 1 hour occasionally occurred during the two day modelling period. The problem was addressed by re-running the same modelling system with a) a modified diffusion constant and b) two-way nesting between the high resolution model and its parent domain. The model, which was run with horizontal grid spacing of 370 m, had dimensions of 505 grid points in the east-west direction and 490 points in the north-south direction. It received boundary conditions from a mesoscale model of resolution 1111 m. Both models had 37 levels in the vertical. The mesoscale model was run with a non-local-mixing planetary boundary layer scheme, while the 370 m model was run with no planetary boundary layer scheme. It was found that increasing the

A Response Surface-Based Cost Model for Wind Farm Design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Castillo, Luciano

2012-01-01

A Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model is developed for the engineering planning of wind farms. The RS-WFC model is developed using Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF) for onshore wind farms in the U.S. This model is then used to explore the influences of different design and economic parameters, including number of turbines, rotor diameter and labor cost, on the cost of a wind farm. The RS-WFC model is composed of three components that estimate the effects of engineering and economic factors on (i) the installation cost, (ii) the annual Operation and Maintenance (O and M) cost, and (iii) the total annual cost of a wind farm. The accuracy of the cost model is favorably established through comparison with pertinent commercial data. The final RS-WFC model provided interesting insights into cost variation with respect to critical engineering and economic parameters. In addition, a newly developed analytical wind farm engineering model is used to determine the power generated by the farm, and the subsequent Cost of Energy (COE). This COE is optimized for a unidirectional uniform “incoming wind speed” scenario using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). We found that the COE could be appreciably minimized through layout optimization, thereby yielding significant cost savings. - Highlights: ► We present a Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model for wind farm design. ► The model could estimate installation cost, Operation and Maintenance cost, and total annual cost of a wind farm. ► The Cost of Energy is optimized using Particle Swarm Optimization. ► Layout optimization could yield significant cost savings.

Incident Duration Modeling Using Flexible Parametric Hazard-Based Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruimin Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Assessing and prioritizing the duration time and effects of traffic incidents on major roads present significant challenges for road network managers. This study examines the effect of numerous factors associated with various types of incidents on their duration and proposes an incident duration prediction model. Several parametric accelerated failure time hazard-based models were examined, including Weibull, log-logistic, log-normal, and generalized gamma, as well as all models with gamma heterogeneity and flexible parametric hazard-based models with freedom ranging from one to ten, by analyzing a traffic incident dataset obtained from the Incident Reporting and Dispatching System in Beijing in 2008. Results show that different factors significantly affect different incident time phases, whose best distributions were diverse. Given the best hazard-based models of each incident time phase, the prediction result can be reasonable for most incidents. The results of this study can aid traffic incident management agencies not only in implementing strategies that would reduce incident duration, and thus reduce congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses, but also in effectively predicting incident duration time.

A wind turbine hybrid simulation framework considering aeroelastic effects

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Wei; Su, Weihua

2015-04-01

In performing an effective structural analysis for wind turbine, the simulation of turbine aerodynamic loads is of great importance. The interaction between the wake flow and the blades may impact turbine blades loading condition, energy yield and operational behavior. Direct experimental measurement of wind flow field and wind profiles around wind turbines is very helpful to support the wind turbine design. However, with the growth of the size of wind turbines for higher energy output, it is not convenient to obtain all the desired data in wind-tunnel and field tests. In this paper, firstly the modeling of dynamic responses of large-span wind turbine blades will consider nonlinear aeroelastic effects. A strain-based geometrically nonlinear beam formulation will be used for the basic structural dynamic modeling, which will be coupled with unsteady aerodynamic equations and rigid-body rotations of the rotor. Full wind turbines can be modeled by using the multi-connected beams. Then, a hybrid simulation experimental framework is proposed to potentially address this issue. The aerodynamic-dominant components, such as the turbine blades and rotor, are simulated as numerical components using the nonlinear aeroelastic model; while the turbine tower, where the collapse of failure may occur under high level of wind load, is simulated separately as the physical component. With the proposed framework, dynamic behavior of NREL's 5MW wind turbine blades will be studied and correlated with available numerical data. The current work will be the basis of the authors' further studies on flow control and hazard mitigation on wind turbine blades and towers.

Simulation platform to model, optimize and design wind turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iov, F.; Hansen, A.D.; Soerensen, P.; Blaabjerg, F.

2004-03-01

This report is a general overview of the results obtained in the project 'Electrical Design and Control. Simulation Platform to Model, Optimize and Design Wind Turbines'. The motivation for this research project is the ever-increasing wind energy penetration into the power network. Therefore, the project has the main goal to create a model database in different simulation tools for a system optimization of the wind turbine systems. Using this model database a simultaneous optimization of the aerodynamic, mechanical, electrical and control systems over the whole range of wind speeds and grid characteristics can be achieved. The report is structured in six chapters. First, the background of this project and the main goals as well as the structure of the simulation platform is given. The main topologies for wind turbines, which have been taken into account during the project, are briefly presented. Then, the considered simulation tools namely: HAWC, DIgSILENT, Saber and Matlab/Simulink have been used in this simulation platform are described. The focus here is on the modelling and simulation time scale aspects. The abilities of these tools are complementary and they can together cover all the modelling aspects of the wind turbines e.g. mechanical loads, power quality, switching, control and grid faults. However, other simulation packages e.g PSCAD/EMTDC can easily be added in the simulation platform. New models and new control algorithms for wind turbine systems have been developed and tested in these tools. All these models are collected in dedicated libraries in Matlab/Simulink as well as in Saber. Some simulation results from the considered tools are presented for MW wind turbines. These simulation results focuses on fixed-speed and variable speed/pitch wind turbines. A good agreement with the real behaviour of these systems is obtained for each simulation tool. These models can easily be extended to model different kinds of wind turbines or large wind

Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

2016-04-01

1. Introduction Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are functional for giving information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Several mesoscale models and families of models are being used, and each often contains thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. To remedy this problem and for evaluating the capabilities of mesoscale models to estimate site wind conditions, a tailored benchmarking study has been co-organized by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the European Energy Research Alliance Joint Programme Wind Energy (EERA JP WIND). EWEA hosted results and ensured that participants were anonymous. The blind evaluation was performed at the Wind Energy Department of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) with the following objectives: (1) To highlight common issues on mesoscale modelling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and (2) To identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. 2. Approach Three experimental sites were selected: FINO 3 (offshore, GE), Høvsore (coastal, DK), and Cabauw (land-based, NL), and three other sites without observations based on . The three mast sites were chosen because the availability of concurrent suitable time series of vertical profiles of winds speed and other surface parameters. The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, etc., at various vertical heights for a complete year. The methodology used to derive the time series was left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a brief description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and

Evaluation of the wind direction uncertainty and its impact on wake modeling at the Horns Rev offshore wind farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gaumond, M.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Ott, Søren

2014-01-01

of the wind direction inside the wind farm and the variability of the wind direction within the averaging period. The results show that the technique corrects the predictions of the models when the simulations and data are averaged over narrow wind direction sectors. In addition, the agreement of the shape...... of the power deficit in a single wake situation is improved. The robustness of the method is verified using the Jensen model, the Larsen model and Fuga, which are three different engineering wake models. The results indicate that the discrepancies between the traditional numerical simulations and power...... production data for narrow wind direction sectors are not caused by an inherent inaccuracy of the current wake models, but rather by the large wind direction uncertainty included in the dataset. The technique can potentially improve wind farm control algorithms and layout optimization because both...

Methodologies for Wind Turbine and STATCOM Integration in Wind Power Plant Models for Harmonic Resonances Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Freijedo Fernandez, Francisco Daniel; Chaudhary, Sanjay Kumar; Guerrero, Josep M.

2015-01-01

-domain. As an alternative, a power based averaged modelling is also proposed. Type IV wind turbine harmonic signature and STATCOM active harmonic mitigation are considered for the simulation case studies. Simulation results provide a good insight of the features and limitations of the proposed methodologies.......This paper approaches modelling methodologies for integration of wind turbines and STATCOM in harmonic resonance studies. Firstly, an admittance equivalent model representing the harmonic signature of grid connected voltage source converters is provided. A simplified type IV wind turbine modelling...... is then straightforward. This linear modelling is suitable to represent the wind turbine in the range of frequencies at which harmonic interactions are likely. Even the admittance method is suitable both for frequency and time domain studies, some limitations arise in practice when implementing it in the time...

Advanced Issues of Wind Turbine Modelling and Control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simani, Silvio

2015-01-01

The motivation for this paper comes from a real need to have an overview about the challenges of modelling and control for very demanding systems, such as wind turbine systems, which require reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety over power conversion efficiency. These issues have begun to stimulate research and development in the wide control community particularly for these installations that need a high degree of “sustainability”. Note that this topic represents a key point mainly for offshore wind turbines with very large rotors, since they are characterised by challenging modelling and control problems, as well as expensive and safety critical maintenance works. In this case, a clear conflict exists between ensuring a high degree of availability and reducing maintenance times, which affect the final energy cost. On the other hand, wind turbines have highly nonlinear dynamics, with a stochastic and uncontrollable driving force as input in the form of wind speed, thus representing an interesting challenge also from the modelling point of view. Suitable control methods can provide a sustainable optimisation of the energy conversion efficiency over wider than normally expected working conditions. Moreover, a proper mathematical description of the wind turbine system should be able to capture the complete behaviour of the process under monitoring, thus providing an important impact on the control design itself. In this way, the control scheme could guarantee prescribed performance, whilst also giving a degree of “tolerance” to possible deviation of characteristic properties or system parameters from standard conditions, if properly included in the wind turbine model itself. The most important developments in advanced controllers for wind turbines are addressed, and open problems in the areas of modelling of wind turbines are also outlined. (paper)

Wave and Wind Model Performance Metrics Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, J. K.; Wang, D. W.

2016-02-01

Continual improvements and upgrades of Navy ocean wave and wind models are essential to the assurance of battlespace environment predictability of ocean surface wave and surf conditions in support of Naval global operations. Thus, constant verification and validation of model performance is equally essential to assure the progress of model developments and maintain confidence in the predictions. Global and regional scale model evaluations may require large areas and long periods of time. For observational data to compare against, altimeter winds and waves along the tracks from past and current operational satellites as well as moored/drifting buoys can be used for global and regional coverage. Using data and model runs in previous trials such as the planned experiment, the Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real Time (DART), we demonstrated the use of accumulated altimeter wind and wave data over several years to obtain an objective evaluation of the performance the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model running in the Adriatic Sea. The assessment provided detailed performance of wind and wave models by using cell-averaged statistical variables maps with spatial statistics including slope, correlation, and scatter index to summarize model performance. Such a methodology is easily generalized to other regions and at global scales. Operational technology currently used by subject matter experts evaluating the Navy Coastal Ocean Model and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model can be expanded to evaluate wave and wind models using tools developed for ArcMAP, a GIS application developed by ESRI. Recent inclusion of altimeter and buoy data into a format through the Naval Oceanographic Office's (NAVOCEANO) quality control system and the netCDF standards applicable to all model output makes it possible for the fusion of these data and direct model verification. Also, procedures were developed for the accumulation of match-ups of modelled and observed parameters to form a data base

IEA Wind Task 37 System Modeling Framework and Ontology for Wind Turbines and Plants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dykes, K; Sanchez Perez Moreno, S.; Zahle, Frederik; Ning, A; McWilliam, M.; Zaayer, M B

2017-01-01

This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the development of a system modeling framework and ontology for wind turbines and plants as part of the larger IEA Wind Task 37 on wind energy systems engineering. The goals of the effort are to create a set of guidelines for a common

Linear and non-linear autoregressive models for short-term wind speed forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydia, M.; Suresh Kumar, S.; Immanuel Selvakumar, A.; Edwin Prem Kumar, G.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Models for wind speed prediction at 10-min intervals up to 1 h built on time-series wind speed data. • Four different multivariate models for wind speed built based on exogenous variables. • Non-linear models built using three data mining algorithms outperform the linear models. • Autoregressive models based on wind direction perform better than other models. - Abstract: Wind speed forecasting aids in estimating the energy produced from wind farms. The soaring energy demands of the world and minimal availability of conventional energy sources have significantly increased the role of non-conventional sources of energy like solar, wind, etc. Development of models for wind speed forecasting with higher reliability and greater accuracy is the need of the hour. In this paper, models for predicting wind speed at 10-min intervals up to 1 h have been built based on linear and non-linear autoregressive moving average models with and without external variables. The autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction and annual trends have been built using data obtained from Sotavento Galicia Plc. and autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction, wind shear and temperature have been built on data obtained from Centre for Wind Energy Technology, Chennai, India. While the parameters of the linear models are obtained using the Gauss–Newton algorithm, the non-linear autoregressive models are developed using three different data mining algorithms. The accuracy of the models has been measured using three performance metrics namely, the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

2017-01-01

Accurate wind speed simulation is an essential prerequisite to analyze the power systems with wind power. A wind speed model considering meteorological conditions and seasonal variations is proposed in this paper. Firstly, using the path analysis method, the influence weights of meteorological...... systems with wind power. The assessment results of the modified IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 demonstrated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model....

Developing a Local Neurofuzzy Model for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Faghihnia

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Large scale integration of wind generation capacity into power systems introduces operational challenges due to wind power uncertainty and variability. Therefore, accurate wind power forecast is important for reliable and economic operation of the power systems. Complexities and nonlinearities exhibited by wind power time series necessitate use of elaborative and sophisticated approaches for wind power forecasting. In this paper, a local neurofuzzy (LNF approach, trained by the polynomial model tree (POLYMOT learning algorithm, is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. The LNF approach is constructed based on the contribution of local polynomial models which can efficiently model wind power generation. Data from Sotavento wind farm in Spain was used to validate the proposed LNF approach. Comparison between performance of the proposed approach and several recently published approaches illustrates capability of the LNF model for accurate wind power forecasting.

Fatigue reliability and effective turbulence models in wind farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs; Tarp-Johansen, N.J.

2007-01-01

behind wind turbines can imply a significant reduction in the fatigue lifetime of wind turbines placed in wakes. In this paper the design code model in the wind turbine code IEC 61400-1 (2005) is evaluated from a probabilistic point of view, including the importance of modeling the SN-curve by linear...

Documentation, User Support, and Verification of Wind Turbine and Plant Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robert Zavadil; Vadim Zheglov; Yuriy Kazachkov; Bo Gong; Juan Sanchez; Jun Li

2012-09-18

As part of the Utility Wind Energy Integration Group (UWIG) and EnerNex's Wind Turbine Modeling Project, EnerNex has received ARRA (federal stimulus) funding through the Department of Energy (DOE) to further the progress of wind turbine and wind plant models. Despite the large existing and planned wind generation deployment, industry-standard models for wind generation have not been formally adopted. Models commonly provided for interconnection studies are not adequate for use in general transmission planning studies, where public, non-proprietary, documented and validated models are needed. NERC MOD (North American Electric Reliability Corporation) reliability standards require that power flow and dynamics models be provided, in accordance with regional requirements and procedures. The goal of this project is to accelerate the appropriate use of generic wind turbine models for transmission network analysis by: (1) Defining proposed enhancements to the generic wind turbine model structures that would allow representation of more advanced; (2) Comparative testing of the generic models against more detailed (and sometimes proprietary) versions developed by turbine vendors; (3) Developing recommended parameters for the generic models to best mimic the performance of specific commercial wind turbines; (4) Documenting results of the comparative simulations in an application guide for users; (5) Conducting technology transfer activities in regional workshops for dissemination of knowledge and information gained, and to engage electric power and wind industry personnel in the project while underway; (6) Designing of a "living" homepage to establish an online resource for transmission planners.

Condition Parameter Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Wind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonglong Yan

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system, used widely in wind farms to obtain operational and condition information about wind turbines (WTs, is of important significance for anomaly detection in wind turbines. The paper presents a novel model for wind turbine anomaly detection mainly based on SCADA data and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN for automatic selection of the condition parameters. The SCADA data sets are determined through analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of wind speed and the relationship between output power and wind speed. The automatic BPNN-based parameter selection is for reduction of redundant parameters for anomaly detection in wind turbines. Through investigation of cases of WT faults, the validity of the automatic parameter selection-based model for WT anomaly detection is verified.

Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anca D.; Iov, Florin; Sørensen, Poul

, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine concepts, their performance in normal or fault operation being assessed and discussed by means of simulations. The described control......This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risø-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database...... of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built...

Modular structure of wind turbine models in IEC 61400-27-1

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Andresen, Bjørn; Fortmann, Jens

2013-01-01

This paper presents the modular structure of wind turbine models to be published in a new standard IEC 61400-27 for “Electrical simulation models for wind power generation”. The purpose of this standardization work is to define generic simulation models for wind turbines (Part 1) and wind power...... plants (Part 2), which are intended for short-term power system stability analyses. Part 1 has passed the first committee draft stage, whereas Part 2 is in an early stage of development. Initially, the paper describes the interfaces between wind turbine, wind power plant and grid models, and then gives...... a more detailed description of the modular structure of the types of wind turbines that are included in Part 1....

Wind farm density and harvested power in very large wind farms: A low-order model

Science.gov (United States)

Cortina, G.; Sharma, V.; Calaf, M.

2017-07-01

In this work we create new understanding of wind turbine wakes recovery process as a function of wind farm density using large-eddy simulations of an atmospheric boundary layer diurnal cycle. Simulations are forced with a constant geostrophic wind and a time varying surface temperature extracted from a selected period of the Cooperative Atmospheric Surface Exchange Study field experiment. Wind turbines are represented using the actuator disk model with rotation and yaw alignment. A control volume analysis around each turbine has been used to evaluate wind turbine wake recovery and corresponding harvested power. Results confirm the existence of two dominant recovery mechanisms, advection and flux of mean kinetic energy, which are modulated by the background thermal stratification. For the low-density arrangements advection dominates, while for the highly loaded wind farms the mean kinetic energy recovers through fluxes of mean kinetic energy. For those cases in between, a smooth balance of both mechanisms exists. From the results, a low-order model for the wind farms' harvested power as a function of thermal stratification and wind farm density has been developed, which has the potential to be used as an order-of-magnitude assessment tool.

An optimization model for transportation of hazardous materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seyed-Hosseini, M.; Kheirkhah, A. S.

2005-01-01

In this paper, the optimal routing problem for transportation of hazardous materials is studied. Routing for the purpose of reducing the risk of transportation of hazardous materials has been studied and formulated by many researcher and several routing models have been presented up to now. These models can be classified into the categories: the models for routing a single movement and the models for routing multiple movements. In this paper, according to the current rules and regulations of road transportations of hazardous materials in Iran, a routing problem is designed. In this problem, the routs for several independent movements are simultaneously determined. To examine the model, the problem the transportations of two different dangerous materials in the road network of Mazandaran province in the north of Iran is formulated and solved by applying Integer programming model

Wind scatterometry with improved ambiguity selection and rain modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Draper, David Willis

Although generally accurate, the quality of SeaWinds on QuikSCAT scatterometer ocean vector winds is compromised by certain natural phenomena and retrieval algorithm limitations. This dissertation addresses three main contributors to scatterometer estimate error: poor ambiguity selection, estimate uncertainty at low wind speeds, and rain corruption. A quality assurance (QA) analysis performed on SeaWinds data suggests that about 5% of SeaWinds data contain ambiguity selection errors and that scatterometer estimation error is correlated with low wind speeds and rain events. Ambiguity selection errors are partly due to the "nudging" step (initialization from outside data). A sophisticated new non-nudging ambiguity selection approach produces generally more consistent wind than the nudging method in moderate wind conditions. The non-nudging method selects 93% of the same ambiguities as the nudged data, validating both techniques, and indicating that ambiguity selection can be accomplished without nudging. Variability at low wind speeds is analyzed using tower-mounted scatterometer data. According to theory, below a threshold wind speed, the wind fails to generate the surface roughness necessary for wind measurement. A simple analysis suggests the existence of the threshold in much of the tower-mounted scatterometer data. However, the backscatter does not "go to zero" beneath the threshold in an uncontrolled environment as theory suggests, but rather has a mean drop and higher variability below the threshold. Rain is the largest weather-related contributor to scatterometer error, affecting approximately 4% to 10% of SeaWinds data. A simple model formed via comparison of co-located TRMM PR and SeaWinds measurements characterizes the average effect of rain on SeaWinds backscatter. The model is generally accurate to within 3 dB over the tropics. The rain/wind backscatter model is used to simultaneously retrieve wind and rain from SeaWinds measurements. The simultaneous

The New Italian Seismic Hazard Model

Science.gov (United States)

Marzocchi, W.; Meletti, C.; Albarello, D.; D'Amico, V.; Luzi, L.; Martinelli, F.; Pace, B.; Pignone, M.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.

2017-12-01

In 2015 the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica - CPS) of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology was commissioned of coordinating the national scientific community with the aim to elaborate a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized to the update of seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap for releasing within three years a significantly renewed PSHA model, with regard both to the updated input elements and to the strategies to be followed. The main requirements of the model were discussed in meetings with the experts on earthquake engineering that then will participate to the revision of the building code. The activities were organized in 6 tasks: program coordination, input data, seismicity models, ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs), computation and rendering, testing. The input data task has been selecting the most updated information about seismicity (historical and instrumental), seismogenic faults, and deformation (both from seismicity and geodetic data). The seismicity models have been elaborating in terms of classic source areas, fault sources and gridded seismicity based on different approaches. The GMPEs task has selected the most recent models accounting for their tectonic suitability and forecasting performance. The testing phase has been planned to design statistical procedures to test with the available data the whole seismic hazard models, and single components such as the seismicity models and the GMPEs. In this talk we show some preliminary results, summarize the overall strategy for building the new Italian PSHA model, and discuss in detail important novelties that we put forward. Specifically, we adopt a new formal probabilistic framework to interpret the outcomes of the model and to test it meaningfully; this requires a proper definition and characterization of both aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that we accomplish through an ensemble modeling strategy. We use a weighting scheme

Model-Based Control of a Ballast-Stabilized Floating Wind Turbine Exposed to Wind and Waves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Søren

2013-01-01

wind turbine, for water depths beyond 50 meters where winds are stronger and less turbulent. A floating wind turbine is subject to not only aerodynamics and wind induced loads, but also to hy-drodynamics and wave induced loads. In contrast to a bottom fixed wind turbine, the floating structure......, the hydrodynamics and the loads change the dynamic behavior of a floating wind turbine. Consequently, conventional wind turbine control cause instabilities on floating wind turbines. This work addresses the control of a floating spar buoy wind turbine, and focuses on the impact of the additional platform dynamics....... A time varying control model is presented based on the wind speed and wave frequency. Estimates of the wind speed and wave frequency are used as scheduling variables in a gain scheduled linear quadratic controller to improve the electrical power production while reducing fatigue. To address the problem...

Complete wind farm electromagnetic transient modelling for grid integration studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zubia, I.; Ostolaza, X.; Susperregui, A.; Tapia, G.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a modelling methodology to analyse the impact of wind farms in surrounding networks. Based on the transient modelling of the asynchronous generator, the multi-machine model of a wind farm composed of N generators is developed. The model incorporates step-up power transformers, distribution lines and surrounding loads up to their connection to the power network. This model allows the simulation of symmetric and asymmetric short-circuits located in the distribution network and the analysis of transient stability of wind farms. It can be also used to study the islanding operation of wind farms

Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

2011-01-01

The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Innovazione, Universita del Salento, Via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce (Italy)

2011-04-15

The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

Development of Seismic Demand for Chang-Bin Offshore Wind Farm in Taiwan Strait

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Kai Wang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Taiwan is located on the Pacific seismic belt, and the soil conditions of Taiwan’s offshore wind farms are softer than those in Europe. To ensure safety and stability of the offshore wind turbine supporting structures, it is important to assess the offshore wind farms seismic forces reasonably. In this paper, the relevant seismic and geological data are obtained for Chang-Bin offshore wind farm in Taiwan Strait, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA is carried out, and the first uniform hazard response spectrum for Chang-Bin offshore wind farm is achieved. Compared with existing design response spectrum in the local regulation, this site-specific seismic hazard analysis has influence on the seismic force considered in the design of supporting structures and therefore affects the cost of the supporting structures. The results show that a site-specific seismic hazard analysis is required for high seismic area. The paper highlights the importance of seismic hazard analysis to assess the offshore wind farms seismic forces. The follow-up recommendations and research directions are given for Taiwan’s offshore wind turbine supporting structures under seismic force considerations.

Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

1990-01-01

The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

Wind turbine model and loop shaping controller design

Science.gov (United States)

Gilev, Bogdan

2017-12-01

A model of a wind turbine is evaluated, consisting of: wind speed model, mechanical and electrical model of generator and tower oscillation model. Model of the whole system is linearized around of a nominal point. By using the linear model with uncertainties is synthesized a uncertain model. By using the uncertain model is developed a H∞ controller, which provide mode of stabilizing the rotor frequency and damping the tower oscillations. Finally is simulated work of nonlinear system and H∞ controller.

Hazard identification based on plant functional modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, B.; Whetton, C.

1993-10-01

A major objective of the present work is to provide means for representing a process plant as a socio-technical system, so as to allow hazard identification at a high level. The method includes technical, human and organisational aspects and is intended to be used for plant level hazard identification so as to identify critical areas and the need for further analysis using existing methods. The first part of the method is the preparation of a plant functional model where a set of plant functions link together hardware, software, operations, work organisation and other safety related aspects of the plant. The basic principle of the functional modelling is that any aspect of the plant can be represented by an object (in the sense that this term is used in computer science) based upon an Intent (or goal); associated with each Intent are Methods, by which the Intent is realized, and Constraints, which limit the Intent. The Methods and Constraints can themselves be treated as objects and decomposed into lower-level Intents (hence the procedure is known as functional decomposition) so giving rise to a hierarchical, object-oriented structure. The plant level hazard identification is carried out on the plant functional model using the Concept Hazard Analysis method. In this, the user will be supported by checklists and keywords and the analysis is structured by pre-defined worksheets. The preparation of the plant functional model and the performance of the hazard identification can be carried out manually or with computer support. (au) (4 tabs., 10 ills., 7 refs.)

Data Driven Modelling of the Dynamic Wake Between Two Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas

2012-01-01

turbine. This paper establishes flow models relating the wind speeds at turbines in a farm. So far, research in this area has been mainly based on first principles static models and the data driven modelling done has not included the loading of the upwind turbine and its impact on the wind speed downwind......Wind turbines in a wind farm, influence each other through the wind flow. Downwind turbines are in the wake of upwind turbines and the wind speed experienced at downwind turbines is hence a function of the wind speeds at upwind turbines but also the momentum extracted from the wind by the upwind....... This paper is the first where modern commercial mega watt turbines are used for data driven modelling including the upwind turbine loading by changing power reference. Obtaining the necessary data is difficult and data is therefore limited. A simple dynamic extension to the Jensen wake model is tested...

Identification of wind fields for wave modeling near Qatar

Science.gov (United States)

Nayak, Sashikant; Balan Sobhana, Sandeepan; Panchang, Vijay

2016-04-01

Due to the development of coastal and offshore infrastructure in and around the Arabian Gulf, a large semi-enclosed sea, knowledge of met-ocean factors like prevailing wind systems, wind generated waves, and currents etc. are of great importance. Primarily it is important to identify the wind fields that are used as forcing functions for wave and circulation models for hindcasting and forecasting purposes. The present study investigates the effects of using two sources of wind-fields on the modeling of wind-waves in the Arabian Gulf, in particular near the coastal regions of Qatar. Two wind sources are considered here, those obtained from ECMWF and those generated by us using the WRF model. The wave model SWAN was first forced with the 6 hourly ERA Interim daily winds (from ECMWF) having spatial resolution of 0.125°. For the second option, wind fields were generated by us using the mesoscale wind model (WRF) with a high spatial resolution (0.1°) at every 30 minute intervals. The simulations were carried out for a period of two months (7th October-7th December, 2015) during which measurements were available from two moored buoys (deployed and operated by the Qatar Meteorological Department), one in the north of Qatar ("Qatar North", in water depth of 58.7 m) and other in the south ("Shiraouh Island", in water depth of 16.64 m). This period included a high-sea event on 11-12th of October, recorded by the two buoys where the significant wave heights (Hs) reached as high as 2.9 m (i.e. max wave height H ~ 5.22 m) and 1.9 (max wave height H ~ 3.4 m) respectively. Model results were compared with the data for this period. The scatter index (SI) of the Hs simulated using the WRF wind fields and the observed Hs was found to be about 30% and 32% for the two buoys (total period). The observed Hs were generally reproduced but there was consistent underestimation. (Maximum 27% for the high-sea event). For the Hs obtained with ERA interim wind fields, the underestimation was

Wind speed and direction shears with associated vertical motion during strong surface winds

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, M. B.; Camp, D. W.

1984-01-01

Strong surface winds recorded at the NASA 150-Meter Ground Winds Tower facility at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, are analyzed to present occurrences representative of wind shear and vertical motion known to be hazardous to the ascent and descent of conventional aircraft and the Space Shuttle. Graphical (percentage frequency distributions) and mathematical (maximum, mean, standard deviation) descriptions of wind speed and direction shears and associated updrafts and downdrafts are included as functions of six vertical layers and one horizontal distance for twenty 5-second intervals of parameters sampled simultaneously at the rate of ten per second during a period of high surface winds.

Wind Profiles and Wave Spectra for Potential Wind Farms in South China Sea. Part II: Wave Spectrum Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yichao Liu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Along with the commercialization of offshore wind energy in China, the South China Sea has been identified as ideal for constructing offshore wind farms, especially for farms consisting of floating wind turbines over deep waters. Since the wind profiles and wave spectra are somewhat primitive for the design of an offshore wind turbine, engineering models describing the wind and wave characteristics in the South China Sea area are necessary for the offshore wind energy exploitation given the meteorological, hydrological, and geographical differences between the South China Sea and the North/Norwegian Sea, where the commonly used wind profile and wave spectrum models were designated. In the present study; a series of numerical simulations were conducted to reveal the wave characteristics in the South China Sea under both typhoon and non-typhoon conditions. By analyzing the simulation results; the applicability of the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP spectrum model; in terms of characterizing the wind-induced wave fields in the South China Sea; was discussed. In detail; the key parameters of the JONSWAP spectrum model; such as the Phillips constant; spectral width parameter; peak-enhancement factor, and high frequency tail decay; were investigated in the context of finding suitable values.

40 CFR 265.251 - Protection from wind.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Protection from wind. 265.251 Section... FACILITIES Waste Piles § 265.251 Protection from wind. The owner or operator of a pile containing hazardous waste which could be subject to dispersal by wind must cover or otherwise manage the pile so that wind...

Using Bayes Model Averaging for Wind Power Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Preede Revheim, Pål; Beyer, Hans Georg

2014-05-01

For operational purposes predictions of the forecasts of the lumped output of groups of wind farms spread over larger geographic areas will often be of interest. A naive approach is to make forecasts for each individual site and sum them up to get the group forecast. It is however well documented that a better choice is to use a model that also takes advantage of spatial smoothing effects. It might however be the case that some sites tends to more accurately reflect the total output of the region, either in general or for certain wind directions. It will then be of interest giving these a greater influence over the group forecast. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical post-processing method for producing probabilistic forecasts from ensembles. Raftery et al. [1] show how BMA can be used for statistical post processing of forecast ensembles, producing PDFs of future weather quantities. The BMA predictive PDF of a future weather quantity is a weighted average of the ensemble members' PDFs, where the weights can be interpreted as posterior probabilities and reflect the ensemble members' contribution to overall forecasting skill over a training period. In Revheim and Beyer [2] the BMA procedure used in Sloughter, Gneiting and Raftery [3] were found to produce fairly accurate PDFs for the future mean wind speed of a group of sites from the single sites wind speeds. However, when the procedure was attempted applied to wind power it resulted in either problems with the estimation of the parameters (mainly caused by longer consecutive periods of no power production) or severe underestimation (mainly caused by problems with reflecting the power curve). In this paper the problems that arose when applying BMA to wind power forecasting is met through two strategies. First, the BMA procedure is run with a combination of single site wind speeds and single site wind power production as input. This solves the problem with longer consecutive periods where the input data

Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

OpenAIRE

Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

2014-01-01

A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

Modelling seabird collision risk with off-shore wind farms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mateos, Maria; Arroyo, Gonzalo Munoz; Rosario, Jose Juan Alonso del

2011-07-01

Full text: Recent concern about the adverse effects of collision mortality of avian migrants at wind farms has highlighted the need to understand bird-wind turbine interactions. Here, a stochastic collision model, based on data of seabird behaviour collected on- site, is presented, as a flexible and easy to take tool to assess the collisions probabilities of off-shore wind farms in a pre-construction phase. The collision prediction model considering the wind farm area as a risk window has been constructed as a stochastic model for avian migrants, based on Monte Carlo simulation. The model calculates the probable number of birds collided per time unit. Migration volume, wind farm dimensions, vertical and horizontal distribution of the migratory passage, flight direction and avoidance rates, between other variables, are taken into account in different steps of the model as the input variables. In order to assess the weighted importance of these factors on collision probability predictions, collision probabilities obtained from the set of scenarios resulting from the different combinations of the input variables were modelled by using Generalised Additive Models. The application of this model to a hypothetical project for erecting a wind farm at the Strait of Gibraltar showed that collision probability, and consequently mortality rates, strongly depend on the values of the avoidance rates taken into account, and the distribution of birds into the different altitude layers. These parameters should be considered as priorities to be addressed in post-construction studies. (Author)

Dynamic Federalism and Wind Farm Siting

Science.gov (United States)

2014-05-18

shining through the rotating blades. The turbines can interfere with 19 television and radio reception. Wind farms are known to kill birds and bats...Id. at 332.20 NAT’L WIND COORDINATING COLLABORATIVE, WIND TURBINE INTERACTIONS WITH 21 BIRDS , BATS, AND THEIR HABITATS: A SUMMARY OF RESEARCH...drawbacks, however. Among these, the mechanical and electromagnetic properties of wind turbines pose significant hazards and complications to U.S

Small signal modeling of wind farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

2017-01-01

-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) dynamic system, where the current control loops with Phase-Locked Loops (PLLs) are linearized around an operating point. Each sub-module of the wind farm is modeled as a 2×2 admittance matrix in dq-domain and all are combined together by using a dq nodal admittance matrix....... The frequency and damping of the oscillatory modes are calculated by finding the poles of the introduced MIMO matrix. Time-domain simulation results obtained from a 400-MW wind farm are used to verify the effectiveness of the presented model....

Introducing WISDEM:An Integrated System Modeling for Wind Turbines and Plant (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dykes, K.; Graf, P.; Scott, G.; Ning, A.; King, R.; Guo, Y.; Parsons, T.; Damiani, R.; Felker, F.; Veers, P.

2015-01-01

The National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better understanding of how to improve system-level performance and achieve system-level cost reductions. This work illustrates a few case studies with WISDEM that focus on the design and analysis of wind turbines and plants at different system levels.

Wind turbine noise propagation modelling: An unsteady approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barlas, Emre; Zhu, Wei Jun; Shen, Wen Zhong

2016-01-01

Wind turbine sound generation and propagation phenomena are inherently time dependent, hence tools that incorporate the dynamic nature of these two issues are needed for accurate modelling. In this paper, we investigate the sound propagation from a wind turbine by considering the effects of unste...... Pressure Level (SPL).......Wind turbine sound generation and propagation phenomena are inherently time dependent, hence tools that incorporate the dynamic nature of these two issues are needed for accurate modelling. In this paper, we investigate the sound propagation from a wind turbine by considering the effects...... of unsteady flow around it and time dependent source characteristics. For the acoustics modelling we employ the Parabolic Equation (PE) method while Large Eddy Simulation (LES) as well as synthetically generated turbulence fields are used to generate the medium flow upon which sound propagates. Unsteady...

Model Predictive Voltage Control of Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei

2018-01-01

the efficacy of the proposed WFVC, two case scenarios were designed: the wind farm is under normal operating conditions and the internal wind power fluctuation is considered; and besides internal power fluctuation, the impact of the external grid on the wind farm is considered.......This chapter proposes an autonomous wind farm voltage controller (WFVC) based on model predictive control (MPC). It also introduces the analytical expressions for the voltage sensitivity to tap positions of a transformer. The chapter then describes the discrete models for the wind turbine...... generators (WTGs) and static var compensators (SVCs)/static var generators (SVGs). Next, it describes the implementation of the on‐load tap changing (OLTC) in the MPC. Furthermore, the chapter examines the cost function as well as the constraints of the MPC‐based WFVC for both control modes. In order to test...

An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lund, P.D.

1995-01-01

An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lund, P D [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

1996-12-31

An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

1995-12-31

An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

Parameter study of electric power production in wind farms - experiments using two model scale wind turbines

OpenAIRE

Ceccotti, Clio

2015-01-01

Wind farms are widely developed even if several unsolved problems need to be faced. The rotor-wake interaction involves different physical phenomena, not yet fully understood, directly affecting the overall wind farm power production. Numerical models and engineering rules have always been used to design wind farm layout but a spread between power predictions and results is verified. In this context wind energy research assumes a "back to basic" approach, by means of wind tunne...

Quantitative analysis of a wind energy conversion model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zucker, Florian; Gräbner, Anna; Strunz, Andreas; Meyn, Jan-Peter

2015-01-01

A rotor of 12 cm diameter is attached to a precision electric motor, used as a generator, to make a model wind turbine. Output power of the generator is measured in a wind tunnel with up to 15 m s −1 air velocity. The maximum power is 3.4 W, the power conversion factor from kinetic to electric energy is c p = 0.15. The v 3 power law is confirmed. The model illustrates several technically important features of industrial wind turbines quantitatively. (paper)

Wind power electric systems modeling, simulation and control

CERN Document Server

Rekioua, Djamila

2014-01-01

The book helps readers understand key concepts in standalone and grid connected wind energy systems and features analysis into the modeling and optimization of commonly used configurations through the implementation of different control strategies.Utilizing several electrical machinery control approaches, such as vector control and direct torque control 'Wind Power Electric Systems' equips readers with the means to understand, assess and develop their own wind energy systems and to evaluate the performance of such systems.Mathematical models are provided for each system and a corresponding MAT

Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

2010-01-01

Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

Markov Chain model for the stochastic behaviors of wind-direction data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masseran, Nurulkamal

2015-01-01

Highlights: • I develop a Markov chain model to describe about the stochastic and probabilistic behaviors of wind direction data. • I describe some of the theoretical arguments regarding the Markov chain model in term of wind direction data. • I suggest a limiting probabilities approach to determine a dominant directions of wind blow. - Abstract: Analyzing the behaviors of wind direction can complement knowledge concerning wind speed and help researchers draw conclusions regarding wind energy potential. Knowledge of the wind’s direction enables the wind turbine to be positioned in such a way as to maximize the total amount of captured energy and optimize the wind farm’s performance. In this paper, first-order and higher-order Markov chain models are proposed to describe the probabilistic behaviors of wind-direction data. A case study is conducted using data from Mersing, Malaysia. The wind-direction data are classified according to an eight-state Markov chain based on natural geographical directions. The model’s parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method and the linear programming formulation. Several theoretical arguments regarding the model are also discussed. Finally, limiting probabilities are used to determine a long-run proportion of the wind directions generated. The results explain the dominant direction for Mersing’s wind in terms of probability metrics

Aggregated Modelling for Wind Farms for Power System Transient Stability Studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Hongzhi; Chen, Zhe

2012-01-01

Wind energy is consistently attracting great research effort and actively developed in many countries. As a result, the penetration level of wind power in the power grid is increasing as well as the size of wind farms. A large-scale wind farm may consist of hundreds of wind turbines and its total...... on a wind farm with permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) wind turbines. Simulation results of the aggregated models and the detailed model are compared and analyzed respectively to prove the effectiveness of the aggregating techniques.......Wind energy is consistently attracting great research effort and actively developed in many countries. As a result, the penetration level of wind power in the power grid is increasing as well as the size of wind farms. A large-scale wind farm may consist of hundreds of wind turbines and its total...... installed capacity could be at a level of 1000MW or even more. Consequently, the large-scale wind farm could seriously impact the operation and control of the grid. To represent a large-scale wind farm, aggregated modelling takes advantage of fast computation and simplified implementation compared...

Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

2014-06-01

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical "downscaling" of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations.

Evaluating winds and vertical wind shear from Weather Research and Forecasting model forecasts using seven planetary boundary layer schemes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Draxl, Caroline; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

2014-01-01

with different PBL parameterizations at one coastal site over western Denmark. The evaluation focuses on determining which PBL parameterization performs best for wind energy forecasting, and presenting a validation methodology that takes into account wind speed at different heights. Winds speeds at heights...... regarding wind energy at these levels partly depends on the formulation and implementation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations in these models. This study evaluates wind speeds and vertical wind shears simulated by theWeather Research and Forecasting model using seven sets of simulations...

Repetitive model predictive approach to individual pitch control of wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Stoustrup, Jakob; Odgaard, Peter Fogh

2011-01-01

prediction. As a consequence, individual pitch feed-forward control action is generated by the controller, taking ”future” wind disturbance into account. Information about the estimated wind spatial distribution one blade experience can be used in the prediction model to better control the next passing blade......Wind turbines are inherently exposed to nonuniform wind fields with of wind shear, tower shadow, and possible wake contributions. Asymmetrical aerodynamic rotor loads are a consequence of such periodic, repetitive wind disturbances experienced by the blades. A controller may estimate and use...... this peculiar disturbance pattern to better attenuate loads and regulate power by controlling the blade pitch angles individually. A novel model predictive (MPC) approach for individual pitch control of wind turbines is proposed in this paper. A repetitive wind disturbance model is incorporated into the MPC...

Modeling lahar behavior and hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Manville, Vernon; Major, Jon J.; Fagents, Sarah A.

2013-01-01

Lahars are highly mobile mixtures of water and sediment of volcanic origin that are capable of traveling tens to > 100 km at speeds exceeding tens of km hr-1. Such flows are among the most serious ground-based hazards at many volcanoes because of their sudden onset, rapid advance rates, long runout distances, high energy, ability to transport large volumes of material, and tendency to flow along existing river channels where populations and infrastructure are commonly concentrated. They can grow in volume and peak discharge through erosion and incorporation of external sediment and/or water, inundate broad areas, and leave deposits many meters thick. Furthermore, lahars can recur for many years to decades after an initial volcanic eruption, as fresh pyroclastic material is eroded and redeposited during rainfall events, resulting in a spatially and temporally evolving hazard. Improving understanding of the behavior of these complex, gravitationally driven, multi-phase flows is key to mitigating the threat to communities at lahar-prone volcanoes. However, their complexity and evolving nature pose significant challenges to developing the models of flow behavior required for delineating their hazards and hazard zones.

Atmospheric stability-dependent infinite wind-farm models and the wake-decay coefficient

OpenAIRE

Peña, Alfredo; Rathmann, Ole

2014-01-01

We extend the infinite wind-farm boundary-layer (IWFBL) model of Frandsen to take into account atmospheric static stability effects. This extended model is compared with the IWFBL model of Emeis and to the Park wake model used inWind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP), which is computed for an infinite wind farm. The models show similar behavior for the wind-speed reduction when accounting for a number of surface roughness lengths, turbine to turbine separations and wind speeds und...

Multivariable Wind Modeling in State Space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Pedersen, B. J.

2011-01-01

Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of wind turbines. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper an empirical...... for the vector turbulence process incorporating its phase spectrum in one stage, and its results are compared with a conventional ARMA modeling method....... the succeeding state space and ARMA modeling of the turbulence rely on the positive definiteness of the cross-spectral density matrix, the problem with the non-positive definiteness of such matrices is at first addressed and suitable treatments regarding it are proposed. From the adjusted positive definite cross...

Capacity expansion model of wind power generation based on ELCC

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Bo; Zong, Jin; Wu, Shengyu

2018-02-01

Capacity expansion is an indispensable prerequisite for power system planning and construction. A reasonable, efficient and accurate capacity expansion model (CEM) is crucial to power system planning. In most current CEMs, the capacity of wind power generation is considered as boundary conditions instead of decision variables, which may lead to curtailment or over construction of flexible resource, especially at a high renewable energy penetration scenario. This paper proposed a wind power generation capacity value(CV) calculation method based on effective load-carrying capability, and a CEM that co-optimizes wind power generation and conventional power sources. Wind power generation is considered as decision variable in this model, and the model can accurately reflect the uncertainty nature of wind power.

Modeling Compound Flood Hazards in Coastal Embayments

Science.gov (United States)

Moftakhari, H.; Schubert, J. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Luke, A.; Matthew, R.; Sanders, B. F.

2017-12-01

Coastal cities around the world are built on lowland topography adjacent to coastal embayments and river estuaries, where multiple factors threaten increasing flood hazards (e.g. sea level rise and river flooding). Quantitative risk assessment is required for administration of flood insurance programs and the design of cost-effective flood risk reduction measures. This demands a characterization of extreme water levels such as 100 and 500 year return period events. Furthermore, hydrodynamic flood models are routinely used to characterize localized flood level intensities (i.e., local depth and velocity) based on boundary forcing sampled from extreme value distributions. For example, extreme flood discharges in the U.S. are estimated from measured flood peaks using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution. However, configuring hydrodynamic models for coastal embayments is challenging because of compound extreme flood events: events caused by a combination of extreme sea levels, extreme river discharges, and possibly other factors such as extreme waves and precipitation causing pluvial flooding in urban developments. Here, we present an approach for flood risk assessment that coordinates multivariate extreme analysis with hydrodynamic modeling of coastal embayments. First, we evaluate the significance of correlation structure between terrestrial freshwater inflow and oceanic variables; second, this correlation structure is described using copula functions in unit joint probability domain; and third, we choose a series of compound design scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling based on their occurrence likelihood. The design scenarios include the most likely compound event (with the highest joint probability density), preferred marginal scenario and reproduced time series of ensembles based on Monte Carlo sampling of bivariate hazard domain. The comparison between resulting extreme water dynamics under the compound hazard scenarios explained above provides an insight to the

Probabilistic wind power forecasting with online model selection and warped gaussian process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kou, Peng; Liang, Deliang; Gao, Feng; Gao, Lin

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A new online ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. • Quantifying the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power. • Online model selection that tracks the time-varying characteristic of wind generation. • Dynamically altering the input features. • Recursive update of base models. - Abstract: Based on the online model selection and the warped Gaussian process (WGP), this paper presents an ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. This model provides the non-Gaussian predictive distributions, which quantify the non-Gaussian uncertainties associated with wind power. In order to follow the time-varying characteristics of wind generation, multiple time dependent base forecasting models and an online model selection strategy are established, thus adaptively selecting the most probable base model for each prediction. WGP is employed as the base model, which handles the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power series. Furthermore, a regime switch strategy is designed to modify the input feature set dynamically, thereby enhancing the adaptiveness of the model. In an online learning framework, the base models should also be time adaptive. To achieve this, a recursive algorithm is introduced, thus permitting the online updating of WGP base models. The proposed model has been tested on the actual data collected from both single and aggregated wind farms

Space and time: Wind in an investment planning model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhoff, Karsten; Ehrenmann, Andreas; Butler, Lucy; Cust, Jim; Hoexter, Harriet; Keats, Kim; Kreczko, Adam; Sinden, Graham

2008-01-01

Investment planning models inform investment decisions and government policies. Current models do not capture the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, restricting the applicability of the models for high penetrations of renewables. We provide a methodology to capture spatial variation in wind output in combination with transmission constraints. The representation of wind distributions using stochastic approaches or using extensive historic data sets exceeds computational constraints for real world application. Hence we restrict the amount of input data, and use bootstrapping to illustrate the robustness of the results. For the UK power system we model wind deployment and the value of transmission capacity

A reward semi-Markov process with memory for wind speed modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.; Prattico, F.

2012-04-01

The increasing interest in renewable energy leads scientific research to find a better way to recover most of the available energy. Particularly, the maximum energy recoverable from wind is equal to 59.3% of that available (Betz law) at a specific pitch angle and when the ratio between the wind speed in output and in input is equal to 1/3. The pitch angle is the angle formed between the airfoil of the blade of the wind turbine and the wind direction. Old turbine and a lot of that actually marketed, in fact, have always the same invariant geometry of the airfoil. This causes that wind turbines will work with an efficiency that is lower than 59.3%. New generation wind turbines, instead, have a system to variate the pitch angle by rotating the blades. This system able the wind turbines to recover, at different wind speed, always the maximum energy, working in Betz limit at different speed ratios. A powerful system control of the pitch angle allows the wind turbine to recover better the energy in transient regime. A good stochastic model for wind speed is then needed to help both the optimization of turbine design and to assist the system control to predict the value of the wind speed to positioning the blades quickly and correctly. The possibility to have synthetic data of wind speed is a powerful instrument to assist designer to verify the structures of the wind turbines or to estimate the energy recoverable from a specific site. To generate synthetic data, Markov chains of first or higher order are often used [1,2,3]. In particular in [1] is presented a comparison between a first-order Markov chain and a second-order Markov chain. A similar work, but only for the first-order Markov chain, is conduced by [2], presenting the probability transition matrix and comparing the energy spectral density and autocorrelation of real and synthetic wind speed data. A tentative to modeling and to join speed and direction of wind is presented in [3], by using two models, first

Characterization of the wind loads and flow fields around a gable-roof building model in tornado-like winds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Hui; Yang, Zifeng; Sarkar, Partha [Iowa State University, Department of Aerospace Engineering, Ames, IA (United States); Haan, Fred [Iowa State University, Department of Aerospace Engineering, Ames, IA (United States); Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Terre Haute, IN (United States)

2011-09-15

An experimental study was conducted to quantify the characteristics of a tornado-like vortex and to reveal the dynamics of the flow-structure interactions between a low-rise, gable-roof building model and swirling, turbulent tornado-like winds. The experimental work was conducted by using a large-scale tornado simulator located in the Aerospace Engineering Department of Iowa State University. In addition to measuring the pressure distributions and resultant wind loads acting on the building model, a digital Particle Image Velocimetry system was used to conduct detailed flow field measurements to quantify the evolution of the unsteady vortices and turbulent flow structures around the gable-roof building model in tornado-like winds. The effects of important parameters, such as the distance between the centers of the tornado-like vortex and the test model and the orientation angles of the building model related to the tornado-like vortex, on the evolutions of the wake vortices and turbulent flow structures around the gable-roof building model as well as the wind loads induced by the tornado-like vortex were assessed quantitatively. The detailed flow field measurements were correlated with the surface pressure and wind load measurements to elucidate the underlying physics to gain further insight into flow-structure interactions between the gable-roof building model and tornado-like winds in order to provide more accurate prediction of wind damage potential to built structures. (orig.)

Proportional hazards models of infrastructure system recovery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barker, Kash; Baroud, Hiba

2014-01-01

As emphasis is being placed on a system's ability to withstand and to recover from a disruptive event, collectively referred to as dynamic resilience, there exists a need to quantify a system's ability to bounce back after a disruptive event. This work applies a statistical technique from biostatistics, the proportional hazards model, to describe (i) the instantaneous rate of recovery of an infrastructure system and (ii) the likelihood that recovery occurs prior to a given point in time. A major benefit of the proportional hazards model is its ability to describe a recovery event as a function of time as well as covariates describing the infrastructure system or disruptive event, among others, which can also vary with time. The proportional hazards approach is illustrated with a publicly available electric power outage data set

A Method for Modeling of Floating Vertical Axis Wind Turbine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Kai; Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Moan, Torgeir

2013-01-01

It is of interest to investigate the potential advantages of floating vertical axis wind turbine (FVAWT) due to its economical installation and maintenance. A novel 5MW vertical axis wind turbine concept with a Darrieus rotor mounted on a semi-submersible support structure is proposed in this paper....... In order to assess the technical and economic feasibility of this novel concept, a comprehensive simulation tool for modeling of the floating vertical axis wind turbine is needed. This work presents the development of a coupled method for modeling of the dynamics of a floating vertical axis wind turbine....... This integrated dynamic model takes into account the wind inflow, aerodynamics, hydrodynamics, structural dynamics (wind turbine, floating platform and the mooring lines) and a generator control. This approach calculates dynamic equilibrium at each time step and takes account of the interaction between the rotor...

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Three Dimensional Dynamic Model Based Wind Field Reconstruction from Lidar Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raach, Steffen; Schlipf, David; Haizmann, Florian; Cheng, Po Wen

2014-01-01

Using the inflowing horizontal and vertical wind shears for individual pitch controller is a promising method if blade bending measurements are not available. Due to the limited information provided by a lidar system the reconstruction of shears in real-time is a challenging task especially for the horizontal shear in the presence of changing wind direction. The internal model principle has shown to be a promising approach to estimate the shears and directions in 10 minutes averages with real measurement data. The static model based wind vector field reconstruction is extended in this work taking into account a dynamic reconstruction model based on Taylor's Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis. The presented method provides time series over several seconds of the wind speed, shears and direction, which can be directly used in advanced optimal preview control. Therefore, this work is an important step towards the application of preview individual blade pitch control under realistic wind conditions. The method is tested using a turbulent wind field and a detailed lidar simulator. For the simulation, the turbulent wind field structure is flowing towards the lidar system and is continuously misaligned with respect to the horizontal axis of the wind turbine. Taylor's Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis is taken into account to model the wind evolution. For the reconstruction, the structure is discretized into several stages where each stage is reduced to an effective wind speed, superposed with a linear horizontal and vertical wind shear. Previous lidar measurements are shifted using again Taylor's Hypothesis. The wind field reconstruction problem is then formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem, which minimizes the residual between the assumed wind model and the lidar measurements to obtain the misalignment angle and the effective wind speed and the wind shears for each stage. This method shows good results in reconstructing the wind characteristics of a three

Investigation on the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

BAO Nengsheng; MA Xiuqian; NI Weidou

2007-01-01

The integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm is needed when estimating the wind farm's output over a period of time in the future.The actual wind speed power model and calculation method of a wind farm made up of many wind turbine units are discussed.After analyzing the incoming wind flow characteristics and their energy distributions,and after considering the multi-effects among the wind turbine units and certain assumptions,the incoming wind flow model of multi-units is built.The calculation algorithms and steps of the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm are provided.Finally,an actual power output of the wind farm is calculated and analyzed by using the practical measurement wind speed data.The characteristics of a large-scale wind farm are also discussed.

The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Frankel, Arthur; Zeng, Yuehua; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Harmsen, Stephen; Boyd, Oliver; Field, Edward; Chen, Rui; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell; Williams, Robert; Olsen, Anna H.

2015-01-01

New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

Computer modelling of the UK wind energy resource: UK wind speed data package and user manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burch, S F; Ravenscroft, F

1993-12-31

A software package has been developed for IBM-PC or true compatibles. It is designed to provide easy access to the results of a programme of work to estimate the UK wind energy resource. Mean wind speed maps and quantitative resource estimates were obtained using the NOABL mesoscale (1 km resolution) numerical model for the prediction of wind flow over complex terrain. NOABL was used in conjunction with digitised terrain data and wind data from surface meteorological stations for a ten year period (1975-1984) to provide digital UK maps of mean wind speed at 10m, 25m and 45m above ground level. Also included in the derivation of these maps was the use of the Engineering Science Data Unit (ESDU) method to model the effect on wind speed of the abrupt change in surface roughness that occurs at the coast. With the wind speed software package, the user is able to obtain a display of the modelled wind speed at 10m, 25m and 45m above ground level for any location in the UK. The required co-ordinates are simply supplied by the user, and the package displays the selected wind speed. This user manual summarises the methodology used in the generation of these UK maps and shows computer generated plots of the 25m wind speeds in 200 x 200 km regions covering the whole UK. The uncertainties inherent in the derivation of these maps are also described, and notes given on their practical usage. The present study indicated that 23% of the UK land area had speeds over 6 m/s, with many hill sites having 10m speeds over 10 m/s. It is concluded that these `first order` resource estimates represent a substantial improvement over the presently available `zero order` estimates. (18 figures, 3 tables, 6 references). (author)

Measuring power output intermittency and unsteady loading in a micro wind farm model

OpenAIRE

Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan

2016-01-01

In this study porous disc models are used as a turbine model for a wind-tunnel wind farm experiment, allowing the measurement of the power output, thrust force and spatially averaged incoming velocity for every turbine. The model's capabilities for studying the unsteady turbine loading, wind farm power output intermittency and spatio temporal correlations between wind turbines are demonstrated on an aligned wind farm, consisting of 100 wind turbine models.

An Improved Car-Following Model Accounting for Impact of Strong Wind

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dawei Liu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In order to investigate the effect of strong wind on dynamic characteristic of traffic flow, an improved car-following model based on the full velocity difference model is developed in this paper. Wind force is introduced as the influence factor of car-following behavior. Among three components of wind force, lift force and side force are taken into account. The linear stability analysis is carried out and the stability condition of the newly developed model is derived. Numerical analysis is made to explore the effect of strong wind on spatial-time evolution of a small perturbation. The results show that the strong wind can significantly affect the stability of traffic flow. Driving safety in strong wind is also studied by comparing the lateral force under different wind speeds with the side friction of vehicles. Finally, the fuel consumption of vehicle in strong wind condition is explored and the results show that the fuel consumption decreased with the increase of wind speed.

Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

2011-11-15

The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

Numeric-modeling sensitivity analysis of the performance of wind turbine arrays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lissaman, P.B.S.; Gyatt, G.W.; Zalay, A.D.

1982-06-01

An evaluation of the numerical model created by Lissaman for predicting the performance of wind turbine arrays has been made. Model predictions of the wake parameters have been compared with both full-scale and wind tunnel measurements. Only limited, full-scale data were available, while wind tunnel studies showed difficulties in representing real meteorological conditions. Nevertheless, several modifications and additions have been made to the model using both theoretical and empirical techniques and the new model shows good correlation with experiment. The larger wake growth rate and shorter near wake length predicted by the new model lead to reduced interference effects on downstream turbines and hence greater array efficiencies. The array model has also been re-examined and now incorporates the ability to show the effects of real meteorological conditions such as variations in wind speed and unsteady winds. The resulting computer code has been run to show the sensitivity of array performance to meteorological, machine, and array parameters. Ambient turbulence and windwise spacing are shown to dominate, while hub height ratio is seen to be relatively unimportant. Finally, a detailed analysis of the Goodnoe Hills wind farm in Washington has been made to show how power output can be expected to vary with ambient turbulence, wind speed, and wind direction.

Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration within IEA Wind Task 23: Phase IV Results Regarding Floating Wind Turbine Modeling; Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jonkman, J.; Larsen, T.; Hansen, A.; Nygaard, T.; Maus, K.; Karimirad, M.; Gao, Z.; Moan, T.; Fylling, I.

2010-04-01

Offshore wind turbines are designed and analyzed using comprehensive simulation codes that account for the coupled dynamics of the wind inflow, aerodynamics, elasticity, and controls of the turbine, along with the incident waves, sea current, hydrodynamics, and foundation dynamics of the support structure. This paper describes the latest findings of the code-to-code verification activities of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, which operates under Subtask 2 of the International Energy Agency Wind Task 23. In the latest phase of the project, participants used an assortment of codes to model the coupled dynamic response of a 5-MW wind turbine installed on a floating spar buoy in 320 m of water. Code predictions were compared from load-case simulations selected to test different model features. The comparisons have resulted in a greater understanding of offshore floating wind turbine dynamics and modeling techniques, and better knowledge of the validity of various approximations. The lessons learned from this exercise have improved the participants' codes, thus improving the standard of offshore wind turbine modeling.

Comparison of Standard Wind Turbine Models with Vendor Models for Power System Stability Analysis: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Honrubia-Escribano, A.; Gomez Lazaro, E.; Jimenez-Buendia, F.; Muljadi, Eduard

2016-11-01

The International Electrotechnical Commission Standard 61400-27-1 was published in February 2015. This standard deals with the development of generic terms and parameters to specify the electrical characteristics of wind turbines. Generic models of very complex technological systems, such as wind turbines, are thus defined based on the four common configurations available in the market. Due to its recent publication, the comparison of the response of generic models with specific vendor models plays a key role in ensuring the widespread use of this standard. This paper compares the response of a specific Gamesa dynamic wind turbine model to the corresponding generic IEC Type III wind turbine model response when the wind turbine is subjected to a three-phase voltage dip. This Type III model represents the doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine, which is not only one of the most commonly sold and installed technologies in the current market but also a complex variable-speed operation implementation. In fact, active and reactive power transients are observed due to the voltage reduction. Special attention is given to the reactive power injection provided by the wind turbine models because it is a requirement of current grid codes. Further, the boundaries of the generic models associated with transient events that cannot be represented exactly are included in the paper.

MENTAT: A New Magnetic Meridional Neutral Wind Model for Earth's Thermosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Dandenault, P. B.

2017-12-01

We present a new model of thermosphere winds in the F region obtained from variations in the altitude of the peak density of the ionosphere (hmF2). The new Magnetic mEridional NeuTrAl Thermospheric (MENTAT) wind model produces magnetic-meridional neutral winds as a function of year, day of year, solar local time, solar flux, geographic latitude, and geographic longitude. The winds compare well with Fabry-Pérot Interferometer (FPI) wind observations and are shown to provide accurate specifications in regions outside of the observational database such as the midnight collapse of hmF2 at Arecibo, Puerto Rico. The model winds are shown to exhibit the expected seasonal, diurnal, and hourly behavior based on geophysical conditions. The magnetic meridional winds are similar to those from the well-known HWM14 model but there are important differences. For example, Townsville, Australia has a strong midnight collapse similar to that at Arecibo, but winds from HWM14 do not reproduce it. Also, the winds from hmF2 exhibit a moderate solar cycle dependence under certain conditions, whereas, HWM14 has no solar activity dependence. For more information, please visit http://www.mentatwinds.net/.

Computational Modelling of Materials for Wind Turbine Blades: Selected DTU Wind Energy Activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard; Mishnaevsky, Leon

2017-11-08

Computational and analytical studies of degradation of wind turbine blade materials at the macro-, micro-, and nanoscale carried out by the modelling team of the Section Composites and Materials Mechanics, Department of Wind Energy, DTU, are reviewed. Examples of the analysis of the microstructural effects on the strength and fatigue life of composites are shown. Computational studies of degradation mechanisms of wind blade composites under tensile and compressive loading are presented. The effect of hybrid and nanoengineered structures on the performance of the composite was studied in computational experiments as well.

Recursive wind speed forecasting based on Hammerstein Auto-Regressive model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ait Maatallah, Othman; Achuthan, Ajit; Janoyan, Kerop; Marzocca, Pier

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Developed a new recursive WSF model for 1–24 h horizon based on Hammerstein model. • Nonlinear HAR model successfully captured chaotic dynamics of wind speed time series. • Recursive WSF intrinsic error accumulation corrected by applying rotation. • Model verified for real wind speed data from two sites with different characteristics. • HAR model outperformed both ARIMA and ANN models in terms of accuracy of prediction. - Abstract: A new Wind Speed Forecasting (WSF) model, suitable for a short term 1–24 h forecast horizon, is developed by adapting Hammerstein model to an Autoregressive approach. The model is applied to real data collected for a period of three years (2004–2006) from two different sites. The performance of HAR model is evaluated by comparing its prediction with the classical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and a multi-layer perceptron Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Results show that the HAR model outperforms both the ARIMA model and ANN model in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). When compared to the conventional models, the new HAR model can better capture various wind speed characteristics, including asymmetric (non-gaussian) wind speed distribution, non-stationary time series profile, and the chaotic dynamics. The new model is beneficial for various applications in the renewable energy area, particularly for power scheduling

Comparing offshore wind farm wake observed from satellite SAR and wake model results

Science.gov (United States)

Bay Hasager, Charlotte

2014-05-01

are modeled by various types of wake models. In the EERA DTOC project the model suite consists of engineering models (Ainslie, DWM, GLC, PARK, WASP/NOJ), simplified CFD models (FUGA, FarmFlow), full CFD models (CRES-flowNS, RANS), mesoscale model (SKIRON, WRF) and coupled meso-scale and microscale models. The comparison analysis between the satellite wind wake and model results will be presented and discussed. It is first time a comprehensive analysis is performed on this subject. The topic gains increasing importance because there is a growing need to precisely model also mid- and far-field wind farms wakes for development and planning of offshore wind farm clusters.

Benchmarking of wind farm scale wake models in the EERA - DTOC project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Barthelmie, R.J.

2013-01-01

-flow to combine wind farm (micro) and cluster (meso) scale wake models. For this purpose, a benchmark campaign is organized on the existing wind farm wake models available within the project, in order to identify which model would be the most appropriate for this coupling. A number of standardized wake cases......Designing offshore wind farms next to existing or planned wind farm clusters has recently become a common practice in the North Sea. These types of projects face unprecedented challenges in term of wind energy siting. The currently ongoing European project FP7 EERA - DTOC (Design Tool for Offshore...... wind farm Clusters) is aiming at providing a new type of model work-flow to address this issue. The wake modeling part of the EERA - DTOC project is to improve the fundamental understanding of wind turbine wakes and modeling. One of these challenges is to create a new kind of wake modeling work...

INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

KAUST Repository

Elkantassi, Soumaya

2017-10-03

Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

KAUST Repository

Elkantassi, Soumaya; Kalligiannaki, Evangelia; Tempone, Raul

2017-01-01

Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

Velocity measurement of model vertical axis wind turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, D.A.; McWilliam, M. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

2006-07-01

An increasingly popular solution to future energy demand is wind energy. Wind turbine designs can be grouped according to their axis of rotation, either horizontal or vertical. Horizontal axis wind turbines have higher power output in a good wind regime than vertical axis turbines and are used in most commercial class designs. Vertical axis Savonius-based wind turbine designs are still widely used in some applications because of their simplistic design and low wind speed performance. There are many design variables that must be considered in order to optimize the power output in a given wind regime in a typical wind turbine design. Using particle image velocimetry, a study of the air flow around five different model vertical axis wind turbines was conducted in a closed loop wind tunnel. A standard Savonius design with two semi-circular blades overlapping, and two variations of this design, a deep blade and a shallow blade design were among the turbine models included in this study. It also evaluated alternate designs that attempt to increase the performance of the standard design by allowing compound blade curvature. Measurements were collected at a constant phase angle and also at random rotor orientations. It was found that evaluation of the flow patterns and measured velocities revealed consistent and stable flow patterns at any given phase angle. Large scale flow structures are evident in all designs such as vortices shed from blade surfaces. An important performance parameter was considered to be the ability of the flow to remain attached to the forward blade and redirect and reorient the flow to the following blade. 6 refs., 18 figs.

Performing wind-tunnel modeling for better management of near-field risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Ju-Chrong; Weber, A.H.

1992-01-01

All industrial complexes must be able to demonstrate that air pollutant concentrations from normal and accidental releases are within the bounds of stringent acceptance criteria. The offsite concentrations are comparatively easy to compute with the standard Gaussian models. By contrast, the onsite (in particular, near-field) concentrations can be more complex since the wind flows can interact with various structures in complex ways to create regions of relatively high local concentrations. Three methods can be used to predict the air pollutant concentrations: (1) mathematical models, (2) field experiments, and (3) fluid models (wind-tunnel testing). The complex flow in the vicinity of buildings is not amenable to simple mathematical generalizations. Field experiments cannot encompass the wind spectrum of meteorological conditions in the time generally allotted. Wind tunnel testing works best where numerical models fail and field testing is not applicable. This paper covers the following aspects related to the wind-tunnel modeling studies: (1) planning strategies; (2) types of wind-tunnel modeling studies flow visualization and concentration measurement experiments; (3) highlights (video tape show) of the wind tunnel experiments; (4) technical challenges; and (5) various applications

A comparison of the WIND System atmospheric models and RASCAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fast, J.D.

1991-01-01

A detailed comparison of the characteristics of the WIND System atmospheric models and the NRC's RASCAL code was made. The modeling systems differ substantially in the way input is entered and the way output is displayed. Nevertheless, using the same source term and meteorological input parameters, the WIND System atmospheric models and RASCAL produce similar results in most situations. The WIND System atmospheric model predictions and those made by RASCAL are within a factor of two at least 70% of the time and are within a factor of four 89% of the time. Significant differences in the dose between the models may occur during conditions of low wind speeds, strong atmospheric stability, and/or wet deposition as well as for many atmospheric cases involving cloud shine. Even though the numerical results are similar in most cases, there are many site-specific and operational characteristics that have been incorporated into the WIND System atmospheric models to provide SRS emergency response personnel with a more effective emergency response tool than is currently available from using RASCAL

A Chance-Constrained Economic Dispatch Model in Wind-Thermal-Energy Storage System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanzhe Hu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available As a type of renewable energy, wind energy is integrated into the power system with more and more penetration levels. It is challenging for the power system operators (PSOs to cope with the uncertainty and variation of the wind power and its forecasts. A chance-constrained economic dispatch (ED model for the wind-thermal-energy storage system (WTESS is developed in this paper. An optimization model with the wind power and the energy storage system (ESS is first established with the consideration of both the economic benefits of the system and less wind curtailments. The original wind power generation is processed by the ESS to obtain the final wind power output generation (FWPG. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM distribution is adopted to characterize the probabilistic and cumulative distribution functions with an analytical expression. Then, a chance-constrained ED model integrated by the wind-energy storage system (W-ESS is developed by considering both the overestimation costs and the underestimation costs of the system and solved by the sequential linear programming method. Numerical simulation results using the wind power data in four wind farms are performed on the developed ED model with the IEEE 30-bus system. It is verified that the developed ED model is effective to integrate the uncertain and variable wind power. The GMM distribution could accurately fit the actual distribution of the final wind power output, and the ESS could help effectively decrease the operation costs.

Modelling of wind power plant controller, wind speed time series, aggregation and sample results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anca Daniela; Altin, Müfit; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

This report describes the modelling of a wind power plant (WPP) including its controller. Several ancillary services like inertial response (IR), power oscillation damping (POD) and synchronising power (SP) are implemented. The focus in this document is on the performance of the WPP output...... and not the impact of the WPP on the power system. By means of simulation tests, the capability of the implemented wind power plant model to deliver ancillary services is investigated....

A Reliability Based Model for Wind Turbine Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.K. Rajeevan

2013-06-01

Full Text Available A wind turbine generator output at a specific site depends on many factors, particularly cut- in, rated and cut-out wind speed parameters. Hence power output varies from turbine to turbine. The objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical relationship between reliability and wind power generation. The analytical computation of monthly wind power is obtained from weibull statistical model using cubic mean cube root of wind speed. Reliability calculation is based on failure probability analysis. There are many different types of wind turbinescommercially available in the market. From reliability point of view, to get optimum reliability in power generation, it is desirable to select a wind turbine generator which is best suited for a site. The mathematical relationship developed in this paper can be used for site-matching turbine selection in reliability point of view.

Surface Winds and Dust Biases in Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Evan, A. T.

2018-01-01

An analysis of North African dust from models participating in the Fifth Climate Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggested that, when forced by observed sea surface temperatures, these models were unable to reproduce any aspects of the observed year-to-year variability in dust from North Africa. Consequently, there would be little reason to have confidence in the models' projections of changes in dust over the 21st century. However, no subsequent study has elucidated the root causes of the disagreement between CMIP5 and observed dust. Here I develop an idealized model of dust emission and then use this model to show that, over North Africa, such biases in CMIP5 models are due to errors in the surface wind fields and not due to the representation of dust emission processes. These results also suggest that because the surface wind field over North Africa is highly spatially autocorrelated, intermodel differences in the spatial structure of dust emission have little effect on the relative change in year-to-year dust emission over the continent. I use these results to show that similar biases in North African dust from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) version 2 surface wind field biases but that these wind biases were not present in the first version of MERRA.

Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. A. Bastidas

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Blahut

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal, and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy. The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R, developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland. An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise

Report 6: Guidance document. Man-made hazards and Accidental Aircraft Crash hazards modelling and implementation in extended PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kahia, S.; Brinkman, H.; Bareith, A.; Siklossy, T.; Vinot, T.; Mateescu, T.; Espargilliere, J.; Burgazzi, L.; Ivanov, I.; Bogdanov, D.; Groudev, P.; Ostapchuk, S.; Zhabin, O.; Stojka, T.; Alzbutas, R.; Kumar, M.; Nitoi, M.; Farcasiu, M.; Borysiewicz, M.; Kowal, K.; Potempski, S.

2016-01-01

The goal of this report is to provide guidance on practices to model man-made hazards (mainly external fires and explosions) and accidental aircraft crash hazards and implement them in extended Level 1 PSA. This report is a joint deliverable of work package 21 (WP21) and work package 22 (WP22). The general objective of WP21 is to provide guidance on all of the individual hazards selected at the first ASAMPSA-E End Users Workshop (May 2014, Uppsala, Sweden). The objective of WP22 is to provide the solutions for purposes of different parts of man-made hazards Level 1 PSA fulfilment. This guidance is focusing on man-made hazards, namely: external fires and explosions, and accidental aircraft crash hazards. Guidance developed refers to existing guidance whenever possible. The initial part of guidance (WP21 part) reflects current practices to assess the frequencies for each type of hazards or combination of hazards (including correlated hazards) as initiating event for PSAs. The sources and quality of hazard data, the elements of hazard assessment methodologies and relevant examples are discussed. Classification and criteria to properly assess hazard combinations as well as examples and methods for assessment of these combinations are included in this guidance. In appendixes additional material is presented with the examples of practical approaches to aircraft crash and man-made hazard. The following issues are addressed: 1) Hazard assessment methodologies, including issues related to hazard combinations. 2) Modelling equipment of safety related SSC, 3) HRA, 4) Emergency response, 5) Multi-unit issues. Recommendations and also limitations, gaps identified in the existing methodologies and a list of open issues are included. At all stages of this guidance and especially from an industrial end-user perspective, one must keep in mind that the development of man-made hazards probabilistic analysis must be conditioned to the ability to ultimately obtain a representative risk

Natural phenomena hazards, Hanford Site, Washington

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrads, T.J.

1998-01-01

This document presents the natural phenomena hazard loads for use in implementing DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, and supports development of double-shell tank systems specifications at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The natural phenomena covered are seismic, flood, wind, volcanic ash, lightning, snow, temperature, solar radiation, suspended sediment, and relative humidity

Fault diagnostics in power transformer model winding for different alpha values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G.H. Kusumadevi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Transient overvoltages appearing at line terminal of power transformer HV windings can cause failure of winding insulation. The failure can be from winding to ground or between turns or sections of winding. In most of the cases, failure from winding to ground can be detected by changes in the wave shape of surge voltage appearing at line terminal. However, detection of insulation failure between turns may be difficult due to intricacies involved in identifications of faults. In this paper, simulation investigations carried out on a power transformer model winding for identifying faults between turns of winding has been reported. The power transformer HV winding has been represented by 8 sections, 16 sections and 24 sections. Neutral current waveform has been analyzed for same model winding represented by different number of sections. The values of α (‘α’ value is the square root of total ground capacitance to total series capacitance of winding considered for windings are 5, 10 and 20. Standard lightning impulse voltage (1.2/50 μs wave shape have been considered for analysis. Computer simulations have been carried out using software PSPICE version 10.0. Neutral current and frequency response analysis methods have been used for identification of faults within sections of transformer model winding.

Map-Based Repowering and Reorganization of a Wind Resource Area to Minimize Burrowing Owl and Other Bird Fatalities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee Neher

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Wind turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (Alameda/Contra Costa Counties, California, USA generate about 730 GWh of electricity annually, but have been killing thousands of birds each year, including >2,000 raptors and hundreds of burrowing owls. We have developed collision hazard maps and hazard ratings of wind turbines to guide relocation of existing wind turbines and careful repowering to modern turbines to reduce burrowing owl fatalities principally, and other birds secondarily. Burrowing owls selected burrow sites lower on slopes and on smaller, shallower slopes than represented by the average 10 × 10 m2 grid cell among 187,908 grid cells sampled from 2,281,169 grid cells comprising a digital elevation model (DEM of the study area. Fuzzy logic and discriminant function analysis produced likelihood surfaces encompassing most burrowing owl burrows within a fraction of the study area, and the former corresponded with burrowing owl fatalities and the latter with other raptor fatalities. Our ratings of wind turbine hazard were more predictive of burrowing owl fatalities, but would be more difficult to implement. Careful repowering to modern wind turbines would most reduce fatalities of burrowing owls and other birds while adding about 1,000 GWh annually toward California’s 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard.

Map-based repowering and reorganization of a wind resource area to minimize burrowing owl and other bird fatalities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smallwood, K. S. [Research Ecologist, 3108 Finch Street, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Neher, L. [Gis Specialist, Neher Consulting, 7241 34th Street, North Highlands, CA 95660 (United States); Bell, D. A. [East Bay Regional Park District, 2950 Peralta Oaks Court, Oakland, CA 94605-0381 (United States)

2009-07-01

Wind turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (Alameda/Contra Costa Counties, California, USA) generate about 730 GWh of electricity annually, but have been killing thousands of birds each year, including >2,000 raptors and hundreds of burrowing owls. We have developed collision hazard maps and hazard ratings of wind turbines to guide relocation of existing wind turbines and careful repowering to modern turbines to reduce burrowing owl fatalities principally, and other birds secondarily. Burrowing owls selected burrow sites lower on slopes and on smaller, shallower slopes than represented by the average 10 x 10 m{sup 2} grid cell among 187,908 grid cells sampled from 2,281,169 grid cells comprising a digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area. Fuzzy logic and discriminant function analysis produced likelihood surfaces encompassing most burrowing owl burrows within a fraction of the study area, and the former corresponded with burrowing owl fatalities and the latter with other raptor fatalities. Our ratings of wind turbine hazard were more predictive of burrowing owl fatalities, but would be more difficult to implement. Careful repowering to modern wind turbines would most reduce fatalities of burrowing owls and other birds while adding about 1,000 GWh annually toward California's 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard. (author)

Sensitivity of a numerical wave model on wind re-analysis datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Lavidas, George; Venugopal, Vengatesan; Friedrich, Daniel

2017-03-01

Wind is the dominant process for wave generation. Detailed evaluation of metocean conditions strengthens our understanding of issues concerning potential offshore applications. However, the scarcity of buoys and high cost of monitoring systems pose a barrier to properly defining offshore conditions. Through use of numerical wave models, metocean conditions can be hindcasted and forecasted providing reliable characterisations. This study reports the sensitivity of wind inputs on a numerical wave model for the Scottish region. Two re-analysis wind datasets with different spatio-temporal characteristics are used, the ERA-Interim Re-Analysis and the CFSR-NCEP Re-Analysis dataset. Different wind products alter results, affecting the accuracy obtained. The scope of this study is to assess different available wind databases and provide information concerning the most appropriate wind dataset for the specific region, based on temporal, spatial and geographic terms for wave modelling and offshore applications. Both wind input datasets delivered results from the numerical wave model with good correlation. Wave results by the 1-h dataset have higher peaks and lower biases, in expense of a high scatter index. On the other hand, the 6-h dataset has lower scatter but higher biases. The study shows how wind dataset affects the numerical wave modelling performance, and that depending on location and study needs, different wind inputs should be considered.

Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Stirling, Mark; Bebbington, Mark; Brenna, Marco; Cronin, Shane; Christophersen, Annemarie; Deligne, Natalia; Hurst, Tony; Jolly, Art; Jolly, Gill; Kennedy, Ben; Kereszturi, Gabor; Lindsay, Jan; Neall, Vince; Procter, Jonathan; Rhoades, David; Scott, Brad; Shane, Phil; Smith, Ian; Smith, Richard; Wang, Ting; White, James D. L.; Wilson, Colin J. N.; Wilson, Tom

2017-06-01

We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g. short-term forecasting). The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Stirling

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration, and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g., short-term forecasting. The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

Fourier Simulation of a Non-Isotropic Wind Field Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mann, J.; Krenk, S.

Realistic modelling of three dimensional wind fields has become important in calculation of dynamic loads on same spatially extended structures, such as large bridges, towers and wind turbines. For some structures the along wind component of the of the turbulent flow is important while for others...

A high performance finite element model for wind farm modeling in forested areas

Science.gov (United States)

Owen, Herbert; Avila, Matias; Folch, Arnau; Cosculluela, Luis; Prieto, Luis

2015-04-01

Wind energy has grown significantly during the past decade and is expected to continue growing in the fight against climate change. In the search for new land where the impact of the wind turbines is small several wind farms are currently being installed in forested areas. In order to optimize the distribution of the wind turbines within the wind farm the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes equations are solved over the domain of interest using either commercial or in house codes. The existence of a canopy alters the Atmospheric Boundary Layer wind profile close to the ground. Therefore in order to obtain a more accurate representation of the flow in forested areas modification to both the Navier Stokes and turbulence variables equations need to be introduced. Several existing canopy models have been tested in an academic problem showing that the one proposed by Sogachev et. al gives the best results. This model has been implemented in an in house CFD solver named Alya. It is a high performance unstructured finite element code that has been designed from scratch to be able to run in the world's biggest supercomputers. Its scalabililty has recently been tested up to 100000 processors in both American and European supercomputers. During the past three years the code has been tuned and tested for wind energy problems. Recent efforts have focused on the canopy model following industry needs. In this work we shall benchmark our results in a wind farm that is currently being designed by Scottish Power and Iberdrola in Scotland. This is a very interesting real case with extensive experimental data from five different masts with anemometers at several heights. It is used to benchmark both the wind profiles and the speed up obtained between different masts. Sixteen different wind directions are simulated. The numerical model provides very satisfactory results for both the masts that are affected by the canopy and those that are not influenced by it.

Simulation model of an active stall wind turbine controller

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jauch, C.; Hansen, A.D.; Soerensen, P. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Rosilde (Denmark); Blaabjerg, F. [Aalborg Univ., Inst. of Energy Technology (Denmark)

2004-07-01

This paper describes an active stall wind turbine controller. The objective is to develop a general model of an active stall controller in order to simulate the operation of grid connected active stall wind turbines. The active stall turbine concept and its control strategies are presented and evaluated on the basis of simulations. The presented controller is described for continuous operation under all wind speeds from start-up wind speed to shut doven wind speed. Due to its parametric implementation it is general i.e. it can represent different active stall wind turbine controllers and can be implemented in different simulation tools. (au)

Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2017-04-01

Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and

Modelling and Simulation of VSC-HVDC Connection for Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chaudhary, Sanjay Kumar; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro

2009-01-01

This paper describes the modelling and simulation of offshore wind power plants (WPP) connected to the onshore power system grid by VSC based HVDC transmission. Offshore wind power plant is modelled with several wind turbine generators connected to two separate collector buses with their own plant...... wind turbines. Simulation of power ramping up and down as well as steady state operation has been demonstrated. As an additional case, the primary reserve control logic has been implemented and simulated in PSCAD model....

Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erasmo Cadenas

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Two on step ahead wind speed forecasting models were compared. A univariate model was developed using a linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. This method’s performance is well studied for a large number of prediction problems. The other is a multivariate model developed using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (NARX. This uses the variables: barometric pressure, air temperature, wind direction and solar radiation or relative humidity, as well as delayed wind speed. Both models were developed from two databases from two sites: an hourly average measurements database from La Mata, Oaxaca, Mexico, and a ten minute average measurements database from Metepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. The main objective was to compare the impact of the various meteorological variables on the performance of the multivariate model of wind speed prediction with respect to the high performance univariate linear model. The NARX model gave better results with improvements on the ARIMA model of between 5.5% and 10. 6% for the hourly database and of between 2.3% and 12.8% for the ten minute database for mean absolute error and mean squared error, respectively.

Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jassmann, U; Matzke, D; Reiter, M; Abel, D; Berroth, J; Schelenz, R; Jacobs, G

2014-01-01

Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine

Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

Science.gov (United States)

Jassmann, U.; Berroth, J.; Matzke, D.; Schelenz, R.; Reiter, M.; Jacobs, G.; Abel, D.

2014-06-01

Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine to

A proposed wind shift model for the German reactor safety study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aldrich, D.C.; Bayer, A.; Schueckler, M.

1979-04-01

To account for hourly wind direction changes, a wind shift model has been proposed. Using hourly recorded wind speed and direction data, the model modifies the angular distribution of radionuclide concentrations calculated by a straightline model, and is intended to better represent the concentrations in areas close to the reactor where potential doses might exceed the threshold level for early fatalities. 115 weather sequences were used, both with and without the proposed wind shift model, to calculate probability distributions for early fatalities. The use of the proposed model results in a reduction of the mean and peak values of that distribution by 36% and 29%, respectively. (orig./HP) [de

Vector wind and vector wind shear models 0 to 27 km altitude for Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, O. E.

1976-01-01

The techniques are presented to derive several statistical wind models. The techniques are from the properties of the multivariate normal probability function. Assuming that the winds can be considered as bivariate normally distributed, then (1) the wind components and conditional wind components are univariate normally distributed, (2) the wind speed is Rayleigh distributed, (3) the conditional distribution of wind speed given a wind direction is Rayleigh distributed, and (4) the frequency of wind direction can be derived. All of these distributions are derived from the 5-sample parameter of wind for the bivariate normal distribution. By further assuming that the winds at two altitudes are quadravariate normally distributed, then the vector wind shear is bivariate normally distributed and the modulus of the vector wind shear is Rayleigh distributed. The conditional probability of wind component shears given a wind component is normally distributed. Examples of these and other properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution function as applied to Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California, wind data samples are given. A technique to develop a synthetic vector wind profile model of interest to aerospace vehicle applications is presented.

A local-circulation model for Darrieus vertical-axis wind turbines

Science.gov (United States)

Masse, B.

1986-04-01

A new computational model for the aerodynamics of the vertical-axis wind turbine is presented. Based on the local-circulation method generalized for curved blades, combined with a wake model for the vertical-axis wind turbine, it differs markedly from current models based on variations in the streamtube momentum and vortex models using the lifting-line theory. A computer code has been developed to calculate the loads and performance of the Darrieus vertical-axis wind turbine. The results show good agreement with experimental data and compare well with other methods.

Computer model for large-scale offshore wind-power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dambolena, I G [Bucknell Univ., Lewisburg, PA; Rikkers, R F; Kaminsky, F C

1977-01-01

A computer-based planning model has been developed to evaluate the cost and simulate the performance of offshore wind-power systems. In these systems, the electricity produced by wind generators either satisfies directly demand or produces hydrogen by water electrolysis. The hydrogen is stored and later used to produce electricity in fuel cells. Using as inputs basic characteristics of the system and historical or computer-generated time series for wind speed and electricity demand, the model simulates system performance over time. A history of the energy produced and the discounted annual cost of the system are used to evaluate alternatives. The output also contains information which is useful in pointing towards more favorable design alternatives. Use of the model to analyze a specific wind-power system for New England indicates that electric energy could perhaps be generated at a competitive cost.

Report 5: Guidance document. Implementation of biological infestation hazards in extended PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasnaoui, C.; Georgescu, G.; Joel, P.; Sperbeck, S.; Kollasko, H.; Kumar, M.

2016-01-01

This report covers the assessment of biological hazards with PSA. It provides an overview of the available data and available practices in modelling this type of hazard. First researches in the national and international literature regarding PSA for external and internal hazards shows that probabilistic analyses were very rarely carried out in order to quantify the risk induced by biological hazards. Nevertheless, Section 3 provides some data from some countries. History has shown that this hazard can happened and can be highly safety significant. Screening out this event must be done with great care. The overall analysis approach for Level 1 PSA for internal events can be used for the biological hazards with some care to take into impact the nature of the hazard as it impacts many systems at different times and duration. A proposed detailed methodology is described in Section 4. Still some open issues remain: the methodology must also consider event combination of biological infestation with other external hazards wind or flooding or rainfall and multi-units impact. These aspects present still a lot of challenges to PSA developers. The ASAMPSA-E report recommends that further emphasis shall be put on these two aspects of PSA modelling: multi-units site impact and hazards combinations. (authors)

Modelling and measurements of wakes in large wind farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Rathmann, Ole; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs

2007-01-01

The paper presents research conducted in the Flow workpackage of the EU funded UPWIND project which focuses on improving models of flow within and downwind of large wind farms in complex terrain and offshore. The main activity is modelling the behaviour of wind turbine wakes in order to improve...

Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

2013-01-01

, we simplify state prediction for the MPC. Consequently, the control problem of the nonlinear system is simplified into a quadratic programming. We consider uncertainty in the wind propagation time, which is the traveling time of wind from the LIDAR measurement point to the rotor. An algorithm based......The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...... on wind speed estimation and measurements from the LIDAR is devised to find an estimate of the delay and compensate for it before it is used in the controller. Comparisons between the MPC with error compensation, the MPC without error compensation and an MPC with re-linearization at each sample point...

Advanced modelling of doubly fed induction generator wind turbine under network disturbance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seman, S.; Iov, Florin; Niiranen, J.

This paper presents a variable speed wind turbine simulator. The simulator is used for a 2 MW wind turbine transient behavior study during a short-term symmetrical network disturbance. The mechanical part of wind turbine model consists of the rotor aerodynamic model, the wind turbine control...... converter, the model of the main transformer and a simple model of the grid. The simulation results obtained by means of the detailed wind turbine model are compared with the results obtained from a simplified simulator with an analytical model and FEM model of DFIG. The comparison of the results shows...... and the drive train model. The Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) is represented by an analytical two-axis model with constant lumped parameters and by Finite Element Method (FEM) based model. The model of the DFIG is coupled with the model of the passive crowbar protected and DTC controlled frequency...

Limited Area Forecasting and Statistical Modelling for Wind Energy Scheduling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg

forecast accuracy for operational wind power scheduling. Numerical weather prediction history and scales of atmospheric motion are summarised, followed by a literature review of limited area wind speed forecasting. Hereafter, the original contribution to research on the topic is outlined. The quality...... control of wind farm data used as forecast reference is described in detail, and a preliminary limited area forecasting study illustrates the aggravation of issues related to numerical orography representation and accurate reference coordinates at ne weather model resolutions. For the o shore and coastal...... sites studied limited area forecasting is found to deteriorate wind speed prediction accuracy, while inland results exhibit a steady forecast performance increase with weather model resolution. Temporal smoothing of wind speed forecasts is shown to improve wind power forecast performance by up to almost...

Wall correction model for wind tunnels with open test section

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Shen, Wen Zhong; Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming

2006-01-01

In the paper we present a correction model for wall interference on rotors of wind turbines or propellers in wind tunnels. The model, which is based on a one-dimensional momentum approach, is validated against results from CFD computations using a generalized actuator disc principle. In the model...... good agreement with the CFD computations, demonstrating that one-dimensional momentum theory is a reliable way of predicting corrections for wall interference in wind tunnels with closed as well as open cross sections....

Siemens Wind Power 3.6 MW wind turbines for large offshore wind farms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Akhmatov, Vladislav; Nygaard Nielsen, Joergen; Thisted, Jan; Groendahl, Erik; Egedal, Per; Noertoft Frydensbjerg, Michael; Jensen, Kim Hoej [Siemens Wind Power A/S, Brande (Denmark)

2008-07-01

Siemens Wind power A/S is the key player on the offshore wind power market. The Siemens Wind Power 3.6 MW variable-speed wind turbine is among the word's largest, most advanced and competitive wind turbines with a solid portfolio of large offshore wind farms. Transmission system operators and developers require dynamic wind turbine models for evaluation of fault-ride-through capability and investigations of power system stability. The even larger size of the on- and offshore wind farms has entailed that the grid impact of the voltage and frequency control capability of the wind farm can be appropriated modelled and evaluated. Siemens Wind Power has developed a dynamic model of the 3.6 MW variable-speed wind turbine with the fault-ride-through sequences and models of the voltage and frequency controllers to be applied for large offshore wind farms. The dynamic models have been implemented in the commercially available simulation tools such as DIgSILENT PowerFactory and Siemens PTI PSS/E and successfully validated from measurements. (orig.)

LINCOM wind flow model: Application to complex terrain with thermal stratification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dunkerley, F.; Moreno, J.; Mikkelsen, T.

2001-01-01

LINCOM is a fast linearised and spectral wind flow model for use over hilly terrain. It is designed to rapidly generate mean wind field predictions which provide input to atmospheric dispersion models and wind engineering applications. The thermal module, LINCOM-T, has recently been improved to p...

Robust multi-model control of an autonomous wind power system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cutululis, Nicolas Antonio; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Soerensen, Poul [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Ceanga, Emil [' Dunarea de Jos' Univ., Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Galati (Romania)

2006-07-01

This article presents a robust multi-model control structure for a wind power system that uses a variable speed wind turbine (VSWT) driving a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) connected to a local grid. The control problem consists in maximizing the energy captured from the wind for varying wind speeds. The VSWT-PMSG linearized model analysis reveals the resonant nature of its dynamic at points on the optimal regimes characteristic (ORC). The natural frequency of the system and the damping factor are strongly dependent on the operating point on the ORC. Under these circumstances a robust multi-model control structure is designed. The simulation results prove the viability of the proposed control structure. (Author)

Robust multi-model control of an autonomous wind power system

Science.gov (United States)

Cutululis, Nicolas Antonio; Ceanga, Emil; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul

2006-09-01

This article presents a robust multi-model control structure for a wind power system that uses a variable speed wind turbine (VSWT) driving a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) connected to a local grid. The control problem consists in maximizing the energy captured from the wind for varying wind speeds. The VSWT-PMSG linearized model analysis reveals the resonant nature of its dynamic at points on the optimal regimes characteristic (ORC). The natural frequency of the system and the damping factor are strongly dependent on the operating point on the ORC. Under these circumstances a robust multi-model control structure is designed. The simulation results prove the viability of the proposed control structure. Copyright

An intercomparison of mesoscale models at simple sites for wind energy applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria

2017-01-01

of the output from 25 NWP models is presented for three sites in northern Europe characterized by simple terrain. The models are evaluated sing a number of statistical properties relevant to wind energy and verified with observations. On average the models have small wind speed biases offshore and aloft ( ... %) and larger biases closer to the surface over land (> 7 %). A similar pattern is detected for the inter-model spread. Strongly stable and strongly unstable atmospheric stability conditions are associated with larger wind speed errors. Strong indications are found that using a grid spacing larger than 3 km...... decreases the accuracy of the models, but we found no evidence that using a grid spacing smaller than 3 km is necessary for these simple sites. Applying the models to a simple wind energy offshore wind farm highlights the importance of capturing the correct distributions of wind speed and direction....

Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

2005-01-01

Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

A Collision Risk Model to Predict Avian Fatalities at Wind Facilities: An Example Using Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos.

Science.gov (United States)

New, Leslie; Bjerre, Emily; Millsap, Brian; Otto, Mark C; Runge, Michael C

2015-01-01

Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year-1) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80th quantile, 6

Changes in Surface Wind Speed over North America from CMIP5 Model Projections and Implications for Wind Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sujay Kulkarni

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The centennial trends in the surface wind speed over North America are deduced from global climate model simulations in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5 archive. Using the 21st century simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, 5–10 percent increases per century in the 10 m wind speed are found over Central and East-Central United States, the Californian Coast, and the South and East Coasts of the USA in winter. In summer, climate models projected decreases in the wind speed ranging from 5 to 10 percent per century over the same coastal regions. These projected changes in the surface wind speed are moderate and imply that the current estimate of wind power potential for North America based on present-day climatology will not be significantly changed by the greenhouse gas forcing in the coming decades.

Risk reserve constrained economic dispatch model with wind power penetration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, W.; Sun, H.; Peng, Y. [Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024 (China)

2010-12-15

This paper develops a modified economic dispatch (ED) optimization model with wind power penetration. Due to the uncertain nature of wind speed, both overestimation and underestimation of the available wind power are compensated using the up and down spinning reserves. In order to determine both of these two reserve demands, the risk-based up and down spinning reserve constraints are presented considering not only the uncertainty of available wind power, but also the load forecast error and generator outage rates. The predictor-corrector primal-dual interior point method is utilized to solve the proposed ED model. Simulation results of a system with ten conventional generators and one wind farm demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. (authors)

Modeling and analysis of doubly fed induction generator wind energy systems

CERN Document Server

Fan, Lingling

2015-01-01

Wind Energy Systems: Modeling, Analysis and Control with DFIG provides key information on machine/converter modelling strategies based on space vectors, complex vector, and further frequency-domain variables. It includes applications that focus on wind energy grid integration, with analysis and control explanations with examples. For those working in the field of wind energy integration examining the potential risk of stability is key, this edition looks at how wind energy is modelled, what kind of control systems are adopted, how it interacts with the grid, as well as suitable study

Frequency of damage by external hazards based on geographical information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, G. [RISA Sicherheitsanalysen GmbH, Berlin (Germany); Camarinopoulos, A.; Karali, T. [ERRA, Athens (Greece); Camarinopoulos, L. [Piraeus Univ. (Greece); Schubert, B. [VENE, Hamburg (Germany)

2013-07-01

External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighborhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. In all cases, some accident is a necessary condition for a hazard. Another probabilistic element is the probability of ignition. If transport causes the explosion, the location of the accident will influence the consequences. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. In order to avoid unnecessarily pessimistic approaches, geographical information can be used in addition to local weather statistics. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. This information can be used to find frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. A probabilistic model has been developed. It is based on: - A joint probability density function for wind direction and wind speed, which has been estimated from local weather statistics, - Frequency of hazards for neighboring plants and various types of traffic, - Statistics on the amounts and types of explosive materials, - The model has been implemented using one numerical integrations method and two variants of Monte Carlo method. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Northern Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. In its present form, it makes use of design criteria specific for nuclear power plants, but these could be replaced by different criteria. (orig.)

Frequency of damage by external hazards based on geographical information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, G.; Camarinopoulos, A.; Karali, T.; Camarinopoulos, L.; Schubert, B.

2013-01-01

External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighborhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. In all cases, some accident is a necessary condition for a hazard. Another probabilistic element is the probability of ignition. If transport causes the explosion, the location of the accident will influence the consequences. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. In order to avoid unnecessarily pessimistic approaches, geographical information can be used in addition to local weather statistics. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. This information can be used to find frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. A probabilistic model has been developed. It is based on: - A joint probability density function for wind direction and wind speed, which has been estimated from local weather statistics, - Frequency of hazards for neighboring plants and various types of traffic, - Statistics on the amounts and types of explosive materials, - The model has been implemented using one numerical integrations method and two variants of Monte Carlo method. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Northern Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. In its present form, it makes use of design criteria specific for nuclear power plants, but these could be replaced by different criteria. (orig.)

Active control: Wind turbine model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bindner, H.

1999-01-01

This report is a part of the reporting of the work done in the project 'Active Control of Wind Turbines'. This project aim is to develop a simulation model for design of control systems for turbines with pitch control and to use that model to designcontrollers. This report describes the model...... validation as well as parameter estimation. The model includes a simple model of the structure of the turbine including tower and flapwise blade bending,a detailed model of the gear box and induction generator, a linearized aerodynamic model including modelling of induction lag and actuator and sensor models...

Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

2015-12-01

Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonglong YAN

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

The Effect of Wind Forcing on Modeling Coastal Circulation at a Marine Renewable Test Site

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Ren

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The hydrodynamic circulation in estuaries is primarily driven by tides, river inflows and surface winds. While tidal and river data can be quite easily obtained for input to hydrodynamic models, sourcing accurate surface wind data is problematic. Inaccurate wind data can lead to inaccuracies in the surface currents computed by three-dimensional hydrodynamic models. In this research, a high-resolution wind model was coupled with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary on the west coast of Ireland, to investigate the effect of wind forcing on model accuracy. Two wind-forcing conditions were investigated: (1 using wind data measured onshore on the NUI Galway campus (NUIG and (2 using offshore wind data provided by a high resolution wind model (HR. A scenario with no wind forcing (NW was also assessed. The onshore wind data varied with time but the speed and direction were applied across the full model domain. The modeled offshore wind fields varied with both time and space. The effect of wind forcing on modeled hydrodynamics was assessed via comparison of modeled surface currents with surface current measurements obtained from a High-Frequency (HF radar Coastal Ocean Dynamics Applications Radar (CODAR observation system. Results indicated that winds were most significant in simulating the north-south surface velocity component. The model using high resolution temporally- and spatially-varying wind data achieved better agreement with the CODAR surface currents than the model using the onshore wind measurements and the model without any wind forcing.

Wind waves modelling on the water body with coupled WRF and WAVEWATCH III models

Science.gov (United States)

Kuznetsova, Alexandra; Troitskaya, Yuliya; Kandaurov, Alexander; Baydakov, Georgy; Vdovin, Maxim; Papko, Vladislav; Sergeev, Daniil

2015-04-01

Simulation of ocean and sea waves is an accepted instrument for the improvement of the weather forecasts. Wave modelling, coupled models modelling is applied to open seas [1] and is less developed for moderate and small inland water reservoirs and lakes, though being of considerable interest for inland navigation. Our goal is to tune the WAVEWATCH III model to the conditions of the inland reservoir and to carry out the simulations of surface wind waves with coupled WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and WAVEWATCH III models. Gorky Reservoir, an artificial lake in the central part of the Volga River formed by a hydroelectric dam, was considered as an example of inland reservoir. Comparing to [2] where moderate constant winds (u10 is up to 9 m/s) of different directions blowing steadily all over the surface of the reservoir were considered, here we apply atmospheric model WRF to get wind input to WAVEWATCH III. WRF computations were held on the Yellowstone supercomputer for 4 nested domains with minimum scale of 1 km. WAVEWATCH III model was tuned for the conditions of the Gorky Reservoir. Satellite topographic data on altitudes ranged from 56,6° N to 57,5° N and from 42.9° E to 43.5° E with increments 0,00833 ° in both directions was used. 31 frequencies ranged from 0,2 Hz to 4 Hz and 30 directions were considered. The minimal significant wave height was changed to the lower one. The waves in the model were developing from some initial seeding spectral distribution (Gaussian in frequency and space, cosine in direction). The range of the observed significant wave height in the numerical experiment was from less than 1 cm up to 30 cm. The field experiments were carried out in the south part of the Gorky reservoir from the boat [2, 3]. 1-D spectra of the field experiment were compared with those obtained in the numerical experiments with different parameterizations of flux provided in WAVEWATCH III both with constant wind input and WRF wind input. For all the

Statistical modelling of space-time processes with application to wind power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lenzi, Amanda

. This thesis aims at contributing to the wind power literature by building and evaluating new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations and lead times using spatio-temporal information. By exploring the features of a rich portfolio of wind farms in western Denmark, we investigate...... propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial...

Results of verification and investigation of wind velocity field forecast. Verification of wind velocity field forecast model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogawa, Takeshi; Kayano, Mitsunaga; Kikuchi, Hideo; Abe, Takeo; Saga, Kyoji

1995-01-01

In Environmental Radioactivity Research Institute, the verification and investigation of the wind velocity field forecast model 'EXPRESS-1' have been carried out since 1991. In fiscal year 1994, as the general analysis, the validity of weather observation data, the local features of wind field, and the validity of the positions of monitoring stations were investigated. The EXPRESS which adopted 500 m mesh so far was improved to 250 m mesh, and the heightening of forecast accuracy was examined, and the comparison with another wind velocity field forecast model 'SPEEDI' was carried out. As the results, there are the places where the correlation with other points of measurement is high and low, and it was found that for the forecast of wind velocity field, by excluding the data of the points with low correlation or installing simplified observation stations to take their data in, the forecast accuracy is improved. The outline of the investigation, the general analysis of weather observation data and the improvements of wind velocity field forecast model and forecast accuracy are reported. (K.I.)

Modelling and measurements of wakes in large wind farms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barthelmie, R J; Rathmann, O; Frandsen, S T; Hansen, K S; Politis, E; Prospathopoulos, J; Rados, K; Cabezon, D; Schlez, W; Phillips, J; Neubert, A; Schepers, J G; Pijl, S P van der

2007-01-01

The paper presents research conducted in the Flow workpackage of the EU funded UPWIND project which focuses on improving models of flow within and downwind of large wind farms in complex terrain and offshore. The main activity is modelling the behaviour of wind turbine wakes in order to improve power output predictions

Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

1999-03-01

Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

Stochastic Optimization of Wind Turbine Power Factor Using Stochastic Model of Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Peiyuan; Siano, Pierluigi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a stochastic optimization algorithm that aims to minimize the expectation of the system power losses by controlling wind turbine (WT) power factors. This objective of the optimization is subject to the probability constraints of bus voltage and line current requirements....... The optimization algorithm utilizes the stochastic models of wind power generation (WPG) and load demand to take into account their stochastic variation. The stochastic model of WPG is developed on the basis of a limited autoregressive integrated moving average (LARIMA) model by introducing a crosscorrelation...... structure to the LARIMA model. The proposed stochastic optimization is carried out on a 69-bus distribution system. Simulation results confirm that, under various combinations of WPG and load demand, the system power losses are considerably reduced with the optimal setting of WT power factor as compared...

Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Antonio

2016-04-01

Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

Modeling of the UAE Wind Turbine for Refinement of FAST{_}AD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jonkman, J. M.

2003-12-01

The Unsteady Aerodynamics Experiment (UAE) research wind turbine was modeled both aerodynamically and structurally in the FAST{_}AD wind turbine design code, and its response to wind inflows was simulated for a sample of test cases. A study was conducted to determine why wind turbine load magnitude discrepancies-inconsistencies in aerodynamic force coefficients, rotor shaft torque, and out-of-plane bending moments at the blade root across a range of operating conditions-exist between load predictions made by FAST{_}AD and other modeling tools and measured loads taken from the actual UAE wind turbine during the NASA-Ames wind tunnel tests. The acquired experimental test data represent the finest, most accurate set of wind turbine aerodynamic and induced flow field data available today. A sample of the FAST{_}AD model input parameters most critical to the aerodynamics computations was also systematically perturbed to determine their effect on load and performance predictions. Attention was focused on the simpler upwind rotor configuration, zero yaw error test cases. Inconsistencies in input file parameters, such as aerodynamic performance characteristics, explain a noteworthy fraction of the load prediction discrepancies of the various modeling tools.

A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman; Shoaeifar, Nasser; Shoaeifar, Parva

2018-03-01

The evaluation of evidence provided by geological studies and historical catalogs indicates that in some seismic regions and faults, multiple large earthquakes occur in cluster. Then, the occurrences of large earthquakes confront with quiescence and only the small-to-moderate earthquakes take place. Clustering of large earthquakes is the most distinguishable departure from the assumption of constant hazard of random occurrence of earthquakes in conventional seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, a time-dependent recurrence model is proposed to consider a series of large earthquakes that occurs in clusters. The model is flexible enough to better reflect the quasi-periodic behavior of large earthquakes with long-term clustering, which can be used in time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with engineering purposes. In this model, the time-dependent hazard results are estimated by a hazard function which comprises three parts. A decreasing hazard of last large earthquake cluster and an increasing hazard of the next large earthquake cluster, along with a constant hazard of random occurrence of small-to-moderate earthquakes. In the final part of the paper, the time-dependent seismic hazard of the New Madrid Seismic Zone at different time intervals has been calculated for illustrative purpose.

The Red Sea: An Arena for Wind-Wave Modeling in Enclosed Seas

KAUST Repository

Langodan, Sabique

2016-12-01

Wind and waves play a major role in important ocean dynamical processes, such as the exchange of heat, momentum and gases between atmosphere and ocean, that greatly contributes to the earth climate and marine lives. Knowledge on wind and wave weather and climate is crucial for a wide range of applications, including oceanographic studies, maritime activities and ocean engineering. Despite being one of the important world shipping routes, the wind-wave characteristics in the Red Sea are yet to be fully explored. Because of the scarcity of waves data in the Red Sea, numerical models become crucial and provide very powerful tools to extrapolate wind and wave data in space, and backward and forward in time. Unlike open oceans, enclosed basins wave have different characteristics, mainly because of their local generation processes. The complex orography on both sides of the Red Sea makes the local wind, and consequently wave, modeling very challenging. This thesis considers the modeling of wind-wave characteristics in the Red Sea, including their climate variability and trends using state-of-the-art numerical models and all available observations. Different approaches are investigated to model and understand the general and unusual wind and wave conditions in the basin using standard global meteorological products and customised regional wind and wave models. After studying and identifying the main characteristics of the wind-wave variability in the Red Sea, we demonstrate the importance of generating accurate atmospheric forcing through data assimilation for reliable wave simulations. In particular, we show that the state-of-the-art physical formulation of wave models is not suitable to model the unique situation of the two opposing wind-waves systems in the Red Sea Convergence Zone, and propose and successfully test a modification to the input and white-capping source functions to address this problem. We further investigate the climate variability and trends of wind

The international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the coastal hazards symposium

Science.gov (United States)

Breivik, Øyvind; Swail, Val; Babanin, Alexander V.; Horsburgh, Kevin

2015-05-01

Following the 13th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 4th Coastal Hazards Symposium in October 2013 in Banff, Canada, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here, we give a brief overview of the history of the conference since its inception in 1986 and of the progress made in the fields of wind-generated ocean waves and the modelling of coastal hazards before we summarize the main results of the papers that have appeared in the topical collection.

Numerical modeling of wind turbine aerodynamic noise in the time domain.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seunghoon; Lee, Seungmin; Lee, Soogab

2013-02-01

Aerodynamic noise from a wind turbine is numerically modeled in the time domain. An analytic trailing edge noise model is used to determine the unsteady pressure on the blade surface. The far-field noise due to the unsteady pressure is calculated using the acoustic analogy theory. By using a strip theory approach, the two-dimensional noise model is applied to rotating wind turbine blades. The numerical results indicate that, although the operating and atmospheric conditions are identical, the acoustical characteristics of wind turbine noise can be quite different with respect to the distance and direction from the wind turbine.

A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

Science.gov (United States)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

2017-12-01

We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Barbosa de Alencar

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Generation of electric energy through wind turbines is one of the practically inexhaustible alternatives of generation. It is considered a source of clean energy, but still needs a lot of research for the development of science and technologies that ensures uniformity in generation, providing a greater participation of this source in the energy matrix, since the wind presents abrupt variations in speed, density and other important variables. In wind-based electrical systems, it is essential to predict at least one day in advance the future values of wind behavior, in order to evaluate the availability of energy for the next period, which is relevant information in the dispatch of the generating units and in the control of the electrical system. This paper develops ultra-short, short, medium and long-term prediction models of wind speed, based on computational intelligence techniques, using artificial neural network models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and hybrid models including forecasting using wavelets. For the application of the methodology, the meteorological variables of the database of the national organization system of environmental data (SONDA, Petrolina station, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2017, were used. A comparison among results by different used approaches is also done and it is also predicted the possibility of power and energy generation using a certain kind of wind generator.

Intercomparison of middle-atmospheric wind in observations and models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Rüfenacht

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Wind profile information throughout the entire upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (USLM is important for the understanding of atmospheric dynamics but became available only recently, thanks to developments in remote sensing techniques and modelling approaches. However, as wind measurements from these altitudes are rare, such products have generally not yet been validated with (other observations. This paper presents the first long-term intercomparison of wind observations in the USLM by co-located microwave radiometer and lidar instruments at Andenes, Norway (69.3° N, 16.0° E. Good correspondence has been found at all altitudes for both horizontal wind components for nighttime as well as daylight conditions. Biases are mostly within the random errors and do not exceed 5–10 m s−1, which is less than 10 % of the typically encountered wind speeds. Moreover, comparisons of the observations with the major reanalyses and models covering this altitude range are shown, in particular with the recently released ERA5, ECMWF's first reanalysis to cover the whole USLM region. The agreement between models and observations is very good in general, but temporally limited occurrences of pronounced discrepancies (up to 40 m s−1 exist. In the article's Appendix the possibility of obtaining nighttime wind information about the mesopause region by means of microwave radiometry is investigated.

PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WIND, AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Werth, D.; (NOEMAIL), A.; Shine, G.

2013-12-04

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities - tornadoes, straight winds, and heavy precipitation - are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 1998 by Weber, et al., are given. Using tornado statistics for the states of Georgia and South Carolina, we calculated the probability per year of any location within a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 1.15E-3 (1 chance in 870) per year and wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years, 125,000 years, and 1E+7 years (USDOE, 2012) were estimated to be 136 mph, 151 mph and 221 mph, respectively. In 1998 the strike probability for SRS was estimated to be 3.53 E-4 and the return period wind speeds were 148 mph every 50,000 years and 180 mph every 125,000 years. A 1E+7 year tornado wind speed was not calculated in 1998; however a 3E+6 year wind speed was 260 mph. The lower wind speeds resulting from this most recent analysis are largely due to new data since 1998, and to a lesser degree differences in the models used. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years, 173 mph every 125,000 years, and 230 mph every 1E+7 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS model and the SRS models are very similar, the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a Gumbel

An Experimental Investigation of FNN Model for Wind Speed Forecasting Using EEMD and CS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianzhou Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available With depletion of traditional energy and increasing environmental problems, wind energy, as an alternative renewable energy, has drawn more and more attention internationally. Meanwhile, wind is plentiful, clean, and environmentally friendly; moreover, its speed is a very important piece of information needed in the operations and planning of the wind power system. Therefore, choosing an effective forecasting model with good performance plays a quite significant role in wind power system. A hybrid CS-EEMD-FNN model is firstly proposed in this paper for multistep ahead prediction of wind speed, in which EEMD is employed as a data-cleaning method that aims to remove the high frequency noise embedded in the wind speed series. CS optimization algorithm is used to select the best parameters in the FNN model. In order to evaluate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed hybrid model, three other short-term wind speed forecasting models, namely, FNN model, EEMD-FNN model, and CS-FNN model, are carried out to forecast wind speed using data measured at a typical site in Shandong wind farm, China, over three seasons in 2011. Experimental results demonstrate that the developed hybrid CS-EEMD-FNN model outperforms other models with more accuracy, which is suitable to wind speed forecasting in this area.

Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anca Daniela; Iov, F.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine concepts, their performance in normal or fault operation being assessed and discussed by means of simulations. The described control......This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risø-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database...... of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built...

Modeling of a Switched Reluctance Motor under Stator Winding Fault Condition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Hao; Han, G.; Yan, Wei

2016-01-01

A new method for modeling stator winding fault with one shorted coil in a switched reluctance motor (SRM) is presented in this paper. The method is based on artificial neural network (ANN), incorporated with a simple analytical model in electromagnetic analysis to estimate the flux-linkage charac......A new method for modeling stator winding fault with one shorted coil in a switched reluctance motor (SRM) is presented in this paper. The method is based on artificial neural network (ANN), incorporated with a simple analytical model in electromagnetic analysis to estimate the flux......-linkage characteristics of SRM under the stator winding fault. The magnetic equivalent circuit method with ANN is applied to calculate the nonlinear flux-linkage characteristics under stator winding fault condition. A stator winding fault 12/8 SRM prototype system is developed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed...... method. The results for a stator winding fault with one shorted coil are obtained from the proposed method and from the experimental work on a developed prototype. It is shown that the simulation results are close to the test results....

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

The Red Sea: A Natural Laboratory for Wind and Wave Modeling

KAUST Repository

Langodan, Sabique

2014-12-01

The Red Sea is a narrow, elongated basin that is more than 2000km long. This deceivingly simple structure offers very interesting challenges for wind and wave modeling, not easily, if ever, found elsewhere. Using standard meteorological products and local wind and wave models, this study explores how well the general and unusual wind and wave patterns of the Red Sea could be reproduced. The authors obtain the best results using two rather opposite approaches: the high-resolution Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) local model and the slightly enhanced surface winds from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. The reasons why these two approaches produce the best results and the implications on wave modeling in the Red Sea are discussed. The unusual wind and wave patterns in the Red Sea suggest that the currently available wave model source functions may not properly represent the evolution of local fields. However, within limits, the WAVEWATCH III wave model, based on Janssen\\'s and also Ardhuin\\'s wave model physics, provides very reasonable results in many cases. The authors also discuss these findings and outline related future work.

The Red Sea: A Natural Laboratory for Wind and Wave Modeling

KAUST Repository

Langodan, Sabique; Cavaleri, Luigi; Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2014-01-01

The Red Sea is a narrow, elongated basin that is more than 2000km long. This deceivingly simple structure offers very interesting challenges for wind and wave modeling, not easily, if ever, found elsewhere. Using standard meteorological products and local wind and wave models, this study explores how well the general and unusual wind and wave patterns of the Red Sea could be reproduced. The authors obtain the best results using two rather opposite approaches: the high-resolution Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) local model and the slightly enhanced surface winds from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. The reasons why these two approaches produce the best results and the implications on wave modeling in the Red Sea are discussed. The unusual wind and wave patterns in the Red Sea suggest that the currently available wave model source functions may not properly represent the evolution of local fields. However, within limits, the WAVEWATCH III wave model, based on Janssen's and also Ardhuin's wave model physics, provides very reasonable results in many cases. The authors also discuss these findings and outline related future work.

Complex terrain wind resource estimation with the wind-atlas method: Prediction errors using linearized and nonlinear CFD micro-scale models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Troen, Ib; Bechmann, Andreas; Kelly, Mark C.

2014-01-01

Using the Wind Atlas methodology to predict the average wind speed at one location from measured climatological wind frequency distributions at another nearby location we analyse the relative prediction errors using a linearized flow model (IBZ) and a more physically correct fully non-linear 3D...... flow model (CFD) for a number of sites in very complex terrain (large terrain slopes). We first briefly describe the Wind Atlas methodology as implemented in WAsP and the specifics of the “classical” model setup and the new setup allowing the use of the CFD computation engine. We discuss some known...

Modeling and Hazard Analysis Using STPA