WorldWideScience

Sample records for wind hazard model

  1. Using the RBFN model and GIS technique to assess wind erosion hazards of Inner Mongolia, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Huading; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhuang, Dafang; Hu, Yunfeng

    2006-08-01

    Soil wind erosion is the primary process and the main driving force for land desertification and sand-dust storms in arid and semi-arid areas of Northern China. Many researchers have paid more attention to this issue. This paper select Inner Mongolia autonomous region as the research area, quantify the various indicators affecting the soil wind erosion, using the GIS technology to extract the spatial data, and construct the RBFN (Radial Basis Function Network) model for assessment of wind erosion hazard. After training the sample data of the different levels of wind erosion hazard, we get the parameters of the model, and then assess the wind erosion hazard. The result shows that in the Southern parts of Inner Mongolia wind erosion hazard are very severe, counties in the middle regions of Inner Mongolia vary from moderate to severe, and in eastern are slight. The comparison of the result with other researches shows that the result is in conformity with actual conditions, proving the reasonability and applicability of the RBFN model.

  2. Development of a Probabilistic Tornado Wind Hazard Model for the Continental United States Volume I: Main Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boissonnade, A; Hossain, Q; Kimball, J

    2000-07-20

    Since the mid-l980's, assessment of the wind and tornado risks at the Department of Energy (DOE) high and moderate hazard facilities has been based on the straight wind/tornado hazard curves given in UCRL-53526 (Coats, 1985). These curves were developed using a methodology that utilized a model, developed by McDonald, for severe winds at sub-tornado wind speeds and a separate model, developed by Fujita, for tornado wind speeds. For DOE sites not covered in UCRL-53526, wind and tornado hazard assessments are based on the criteria outlined in DOE-STD-1023-95 (DOE, 1996), utilizing the methodology in UCRL-53526; Subsequent to the publication of UCRL53526, in a study sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Pacific Northwest Laboratory developed tornado wind hazard curves for the contiguous United States, NUREG/CR-4461 (Ramsdell, 1986). Because of the different modeling assumptions and underlying data used to develop the tornado wind information, the wind speeds at specified exceedance levels, at a given location, based on the methodology in UCRL-53526, are different than those based on the methodology in NUREG/CR-4461. In 1997, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) was funded by the DOE to review the current methodologies for characterizing tornado wind hazards and to develop a state-of-the-art wind/tornado characterization methodology based on probabilistic hazard assessment techniques and current historical wind data. This report describes the process of developing the methodology and the database of relevant tornado information needed to implement the methodology. It also presents the tornado wind hazard curves obtained from the application of the method to DOE sites throughout the contiguous United States.

  3. Wind shear hazard determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Michael S.

    1992-01-01

    The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: F-factor relationship with aircraft performance; F-factor formulations; the F-bar index; F-factor hazard limit; F-bar with Doppler sensors; and F-bar profile composite.

  4. Estimation of Typhoon Wind Hazard Curves for Nuclear Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young-Sun; Kim, Min-Kyu [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The intensity of such typhoons, which can influence the Korean Peninsula, is on an increasing trend owing to a rapid change of climate of the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Therefore, nuclear facilities should be prepared against future super-typhoons. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires that a new NPP should be designed to endure the design-basis hurricane wind speeds corresponding to an annual exceedance frequency of 10{sup -7} (return period of 10 million years). A typical technique used to estimate typhoon wind speeds is based on a sampling of the key parameters of typhoon wind models from the distribution functions fitting statistical distributions to the observation data. Thus, the estimated wind speeds for long return periods include an unavoidable uncertainty owing to a limited observation. This study estimates the typhoon wind speeds for nuclear sites using a Monte Carlo simulation, and derives wind hazard curves using a logic-tree framework to reduce the epistemic uncertainty. Typhoon wind speeds were estimated for different return periods through a Monte-Carlo simulation using the typhoon observation data, and the wind hazard curves were derived using a logic-tree framework for three nuclear sites. The hazard curves for the simulated and probable maximum winds were obtained. The mean hazard curves for the simulated and probable maximum winds can be used for the design and risk assessment of an NPP.

  5. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  6. Airborne in situ computation of the wind shear hazard index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oseguera, Rosa M.; Bowles, Roland L.; Robinson, Paul A.

    1992-01-01

    An algorithm for airborne in situ computation of the wind shear hazard index (F-factor) was developed and evaluated in simulation and verified in flight. The algorithm was implemented on NASA's B-737-100 airplane, and tested under severe maneuvering, nonhazardous wind conditions, and normal takeoffs and landings. The airplane was flown through actual microburst conditions in Orlando, FL, where the algorithm produced wind shear measurements which were confirmed by an independent, ground-based radar measurement. Flight test results indicated that the in situ F-factor algorithm correctly measured the effect of the wind environment on the airplane's performance, and produced no nuisance alerts.

  7. Lightning hazard reduction at wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kithil, R. [National Lightning Safety Institute, Louisville, CO (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The USA wind farm industry (WFI) largely is centered in low-lightning areas of the State of California. While some evidence of lightning incidents is reported here, the problem is not regarded as serious by most participants. The USA WFI now is moving eastward, into higher areas of lightning activity. The European WFI has had many years experience with lightning problems. One 1995 German study estimated that 80% of wind turbine insurance claims paid for damage compensation were caused by lightning strikes. The European and USA WFI have not adopted site criteria, design fundamentals, or certification techniques aimed at lightning safety. Sufficient evidence about lightning at wind farms is available to confirm that serious potential problems exist.

  8. Multi-hazard response analysis of a 5MW offshore wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, Evangelos; Sanz, A. Arrospide; Georgakis, Christos T.

    2017-01-01

    Wind energy has already dominant role on the scene of the clean energy production. Well-promising markets, like China, India, Korea and Latin America are the fields of expansion for new wind turbines mainly installed in offshore environment, where wind, wave and earthquake loads threat the struct......Wind energy has already dominant role on the scene of the clean energy production. Well-promising markets, like China, India, Korea and Latin America are the fields of expansion for new wind turbines mainly installed in offshore environment, where wind, wave and earthquake loads threat...... the structural integrity and reliability of these energy infrastructures. Along these lines, a multi-hazard environment was considered herein and the structural performance of a 5 MW offshore wind turbine was assessed through time domain analysis. A fully integrated model of the offshore structure consisting...

  9. Type IV Wind Turbine Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca Daniela; Margaris, Ioannis D.

    project to be incorporated in the wind power plant level. This document describes the Type 4 wind turbine simulation model, implemented in the EaseWind project. The implemented wind turbine model is one of the initial necessary steps toward integrating new control services in the wind power plant level....... In the project, this wind turbine model will be further incorporated in a wind power plant model together with the implementation in the wind power control level of the new control functionalities (inertial response, synchronising power and power system damping). For this purpose an aggregate wind power plant...... (WPP) will be considered. The aggregate WPP model, which will be based on the upscaling of the individual wind turbine model on the electrical part, will make use of an equivalent wind speed. The implemented model follows the basic structure of the generic standard Type 4 wind turbine model proposed...

  10. Identifying and modeling safety hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DANIELS,JESSE; BAHILL,TERRY; WERNER,PAUL W.

    2000-03-29

    The hazard model described in this paper is designed to accept data over the Internet from distributed databases. A hazard object template is used to ensure that all necessary descriptors are collected for each object. Three methods for combining the data are compared and contrasted. Three methods are used for handling the three types of interactions between the hazard objects.

  11. Cockpit display of hazardous wind shear information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanke, Craig; Hansman, R. John, Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Information on cockpit display of wind shear information is given in viewgraph form. Based on the current status of windshear sensors and candidate data dissemination systems, the near-term capabilities for windshear avoidance will most likely include: (1) Ground-based detection: TDWR (Terminal Doppler Weather Radar), LLWAS (Low-Level Windshear Alert System), Automated PIREPS; (2) Ground-Air datalinks: Air traffic control voice channels, Mode-S digital datalink, ACARS alphanumeric datalink. The possible datapaths for integration of these systems are illustrated in a diagram. In the future, airborne windshear detection systems such as lidars, passive IR detectors, or airborne Doppler radars may also become available. Possible future datalinks include satellite downlink and specialized en route weather channels.

  12. Semi-active control of monopile offshore wind turbines under multi-hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, C.

    2018-01-01

    The present paper studies the control of monopile offshore wind turbines subjected to multi-hazards consisting of wind, wave and earthquake. A Semi-active tuned mass damper (STMD) with tunable natural frequency and damping ratio is introduced to control the dynamic response. A new fully coupled analytical model of the monopile offshore wind turbine with an STMD is established. The aerodynamic, hydrodynamic and seismic loading models are derived. Soil effects and damage are considered. The National Renewable Energy Lab monopile 5 MW baseline wind turbine model is employed to examine the performance of the STMD. A passive tuned mass damper (TMD) is utilized for comparison. Through numerical simulation, it is found that before damage occurs, the wind and wave induced response is more dominant than the earthquake induced response. With damage presence in the tower and the foundation, the nacelle and the tower response is increased dramatically and the natural frequency is decreased considerably. As a result, the passive TMD with fixed parameters becomes off-tuned and loses its effectiveness. In comparison, the STMD retuned in real-time demonstrates consistent effectiveness in controlling the dynamic response of the monopile offshore wind turbines under multi-hazards and damage with a smaller stroke.

  13. Modelling Wind for Wind Farm Layout Optimization Using Joint Distribution of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

    OpenAIRE

    Ju Feng; Wen Zhong Shen

    2015-01-01

    Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint distributions of wind speed and wind direction, which is based on the parameters of sector-wise Weibull distributions and interpolations between direction sectors. It is applied to the wind measurement data a...

  14. Wind-driven rain and its implications for natural hazard management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzen, Miriam; Iserloh, Thomas; de Lima, João L. M. P.; Fister, Wolfgang; Ries, Johannes B.

    2017-04-01

    Prediction and risk assessment of hydrological extremes are great challenges. Following climate predictions, frequent and violent rainstorms will become a new hazard to several regions in the medium term. Particularly agricultural soils will be severely threatened due to the combined action of heavy rainfall and accompanying winds on bare soil surfaces. Basing on the general underestimation of the effect of wind on rain erosion, conventional soil erosion measurements and modeling approaches lack related information to adequately calculate its impact. The presented experimental-empirical approach shows the powerful impact of wind on the erosive potential of rain. The tested soils had properties that characterise three different environments 1. Silty loam of semi-arid Mediterranean dryfarming and fallow, 2. clayey loam of humid agricultural sites and 3. cohesionless sandy substrates as found at coasts, dune fields and drift-sand areas. Erosion was found to increase by a factor of 1.3 to 7.1, depending on site characteristics. Complementary tests with a laboratory procedure were used to quantify explicitly the effect of wind on raindrop erosion as well as the influence of substrate, surface structure and slope on particle displacement. These tests confirmed the impact of wind-driven rain on total erosion rates to be of great importance when compared to all other tested factors. To successfully adapt soil erosion models to near-future challenges of climate change induced rain storms, wind-driven rain is supposed to be introduced into the hazard management agenda.

  15. The relationship of an integral wind shear hazard to aircraft performance limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, M. S.; Robinson, P. A.; Hinton, D. A.; Bowles, R. L.

    1994-01-01

    The development and certification of airborne forward-looking wind shear detection systems has required a hazard definition stated in terms of sensor observable wind field characteristics. This paper outlines the definition of the F-factor wind shear hazard index and an average F-factor quantity, calculated over a specified averaging interval, which may be used to judge an aircraft's potential performance loss due to a given wind shear field. A technique for estimating airplane energy changes during a wind shear encounter is presented and used to determine the wind shear intensity, as a function of the averaging interval, that presents significant hazard to transport category airplanes. The wind shear hazard levels are compared to averaged F-factor values at various averaging intervals for four actual wind shear encounters. Results indicate that averaging intervals of about one kilometer could be used in a simple method to discern hazardous shears.

  16. Wind Farms: Modeling and Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimanzadeh, Maryam

    2012-01-01

    is minimized. The controller is practically feasible. Yet, the results on load reduction in this approach are not very significant. In the second strategy, the wind farm control problem has been divided into below rated and above rated wind speed conditions. In the above rated wind speed pitch angle and power....... Distributed controller design commences with formulating the problem, where a structured matrix approach has been put in to practice. Afterwards, an H2 control problem is implemented to obtain the controller dynamics for a wind farm such that the structural loads on wind turbines are minimized.......The primary purpose of this work is to develop control algorithms for wind farms to optimize the power production and augment the lifetime of wind turbines in wind farms. In this regard, a dynamical model for wind farms was required to be the basis of the controller design. In the first stage...

  17. A flexible additive multiplicative hazard model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2002-01-01

    Aalen's additive model; Counting process; Cox regression; Hazard model; Proportional excess harzard model; Time-varying effect......Aalen's additive model; Counting process; Cox regression; Hazard model; Proportional excess harzard model; Time-varying effect...

  18. Modelling Wind for Wind Farm Layout Optimization Using Joint Distribution of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Ju; Shen, Wen Zhong

    2015-01-01

    quite well in terms of the coefficient of determination R-2. Then, the best of these joint distributions is used in the layout optimization of the Horns Rev 1 wind farm and the choice of bin sizes for wind speed and wind direction is also investigated. It is found that the choice of bin size for wind......Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint...... distributions of wind speed and wind direction, which is based on the parameters of sector-wise Weibull distributions and interpolations between direction sectors. It is applied to the wind measurement data at Horns Rev and three different joint distributions are obtained, which all fit the measurement data...

  19. Wind speed dynamical model in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimanzadeh, Maryam; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a model for wind speed in a wind farm. The basic purpose of the paper is to calculate approximately the wind speed in the vicinity of each wind turbine in a farm. In this regard the governing equations of flow will be solved for the whole wind farm. In ideal circumstances......, the dynamic model for wind flow will be established. The state space variables are determined based on a fine mesh defined for the farm. The end goal of this method is to assist the development of a dynamical model of a wind farm that can be engaged for better wind farm control strategies....

  20. Virtual Research Environments for Natural Hazard Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napier, Hazel; Aldridge, Tim

    2017-04-01

    The Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) is a group of 17 collaborating public sector organisations providing a mechanism for co-ordinated advice to government and agencies responsible for civil contingency and emergency response during natural hazard events. The NHP has set up a Hazard Impact Model (HIM) group tasked with modelling the impact of a range of UK hazards with the aim of delivery of consistent hazard and impact information. The HIM group consists of 7 partners initially concentrating on modelling the socio-economic impact of 3 key hazards - surface water flooding, land instability and high winds. HIM group partners share scientific expertise and data within their specific areas of interest including hydrological modelling, meteorology, engineering geology, GIS, data delivery, and modelling of socio-economic impacts. Activity within the NHP relies on effective collaboration between partners distributed across the UK. The NHP are acting as a use case study for a new Virtual Research Environment (VRE) being developed by the EVER-EST project (European Virtual Environment for Research - Earth Science Themes: a solution). The VRE is allowing the NHP to explore novel ways of cooperation including improved capabilities for e-collaboration, e-research, automation of processes and e-learning. Collaboration tools are complemented by the adoption of Research Objects, semantically rich aggregations of resources enabling the creation of uniquely identified digital artefacts resulting in reusable science and research. Application of the Research Object concept to HIM development facilitates collaboration, by encapsulating scientific knowledge in a shareable format that can be easily shared and used by partners working on the same model but within their areas of expertise. This paper describes the application of the VRE to the NHP use case study. It outlines the challenges associated with distributed partnership working and how they are being addressed in the VRE. A case

  1. Modelling pulsar wind nebulae

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    In view of the current and forthcoming observational data on pulsar wind nebulae, this book offers an assessment of the theoretical state of the art of modelling them. The expert authors also review the observational status of the field and provide an outlook for future developments. During the last few years, significant progress on the study of pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe) has been attained both from a theoretical and an observational perspective, perhaps focusing on the closest, more energetic, and best studied nebula: the Crab, which appears in the cover. Now, the number of TeV detected PWNe is similar to the number of characterized nebulae observed at other frequencies over decades of observations. And in just a few years, the Cherenkov Telescope Array will increase this number to several hundreds, actually providing an essentially complete account of TeV emitting PWNe in the Galaxy. At the other end of the multi-frequency spectrum, the SKA and its pathfinder instruments, will reveal thousands of new pulsa...

  2. Computer Model Locates Environmental Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Catherine Huybrechts Burton founded San Francisco-based Endpoint Environmental (2E) LLC in 2005 while she was a student intern and project manager at Ames Research Center with NASA's DEVELOP program. The 2E team created the Tire Identification from Reflectance model, which algorithmically processes satellite images using turnkey technology to retain only the darkest parts of an image. This model allows 2E to locate piles of rubber tires, which often are stockpiled illegally and cause hazardous environmental conditions and fires.

  3. Modeling of Wind Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spacil, D.; Santarius, P. [VSB - Technical University of Ostrava, Department of Electrical Measurement, FEECS, 17. listopadu 15, 708 33 Ostrava- Poruba (Czech Republic); Dobrucky, B. [University of Zilina, Department of Mechatronics and Electronics, FEE, Univerzitna 1, 010 26 Zilina (Slovakia)

    2006-07-01

    The electrical power produced by the wind power plant has increased in the last years in the world and probably will increase further in the future. Therefore, wind power plants have a significant influence on the power production. In this article the connection of the wind turbine to a grid is described in order to determine the impact of the existing wind turbines as well as planned wind turbines on the grid and ensure the proper functioning of the wind turbine. The purpose of the presented work is to find an analytical generator model for the simulation of the wind power plant and determine the influence on the grid by programming with Matlab/Simulink.

  4. Modeling regional wind erosion using different model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhongling; Chang, Chunping; Wang, Rende; Li, Jifeng; Li, Qing

    2017-04-01

    Wind erosion is an important factor causing soil degradation in arid and semi-arid regions. The need to quantitatively evaluate wind induced soil erosion yields many wind erosion models. These models include Wind Erosion Equation (WEQ), Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ),Wind Erosion Predicted System (WEPS) etc. at a field scale and Wind Erosion Assessment Model (WEAM), Integrated Wind Erosion Modeling System (IWEMS), AUStralian Land Erodibility Model (AUSLEM) etc. at a regional scale. The challenge of precisely estimating wind erosion at a regional scale still remain to date. To assess regional wind erosion, WEQ, RWEQ and WEPS have been scaled up to regional versions. However, no attempt is performed to compare these models for regional wind erosion modeling. In this study, the regional versions of WEQ, RWEQ, WEPS and WEAM, IWEMS, AUSLEM will be selected to model regional wind erosion of farmlands in the Kangbao County of northern China with annual soil loss by wind erosion based on 137 Cs analysis. Remote sensing image is used to determine the size and shape of local farmlands. Weather data of 2000-2010, China Soil Survey and published soil data, crops rotations etc. are compiled to generate raster layers of inputs for selected models using ArcGIS 10.2. These models were rebuilt based on ArcGIS Model-builder Module. Spatial distribution of annual soil loss by wind erosion determined from different model will be tested using annual soil loss data by 137 Cs analysis. Performances of these models will be investigated, and restrictions of these models will be further ascertained.

  5. Active control: Wind turbine model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bindner, H.

    1999-01-01

    This report is a part of the reporting of the work done in the project 'Active Control of Wind Turbines'. This project aim is to develop a simulation model for design of control systems for turbines with pitch control and to use that model to designcontrollers. This report describes the model...... developed for controller design and analysis. Emphasis has been put on establishment of simple models describing the dynamic behavior of the wind turbine in adequate details for controller design. This hasbeen done with extensive use of measurements as the basis for selection of model complexity and model....... The models are all formulated as linear differential equations. The models are validated throughcomparisons with measurements performed on a Vestas WD 34 400 kW wind turbine. It is shown from a control point of view simple linear models can be used to describe the dynamic behavior of a pitch controlled wind...

  6. Modelling Wind for Wind Farm Layout Optimization Using Joint Distribution of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Feng

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint distributions of wind speed and wind direction, which is based on the parameters of sector-wise Weibull distributions and interpolations between direction sectors. It is applied to the wind measurement data at Horns Rev and three different joint distributions are obtained, which all fit the measurement data quite well in terms of the coefficient of determination . Then, the best of these joint distributions is used in the layout optimization of the Horns Rev 1 wind farm and the choice of bin sizes for wind speed and wind direction is also investigated. It is found that the choice of bin size for wind direction is especially critical for layout optimization and the recommended choice of bin sizes for wind speed and wind direction is finally presented.

  7. Comparative Distributions of Hazard Modeling Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Abdul Wajid

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the comparison among the distributions used in hazard analysis. Simulation technique has been used to study the behavior of hazard distribution modules. The fundamentals of Hazard issues are discussed using failure criteria. We present the flexibility of the hazard modeling distribution that approaches to different distributions.

  8. A combinatorial wind field model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimanzadeh, Maryam; Wisniewski, Rafal; Sloth, Christoffer

    2010-01-01

    This report is the deliverable 2.4 in the project Distributed Control of Large-Scale Oshore Wind Farms with the acronym Aeolus. The objective of this deliverable is to provide an understanding of the wind eld model and dynamic variations superimposed on the mean eld. In this report a dynamical mo...

  9. Wind energy: Overcoming inadequate wind and modeling uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kane, Vivek

    2010-09-15

    'Green Energy' is the call of the day, and significance of Wind Energy can never be overemphasized. But the key question here is - What if the wind resources are inadequate? Studies reveal that the probability of finding favorable wind at a given place on land is only 15%. Moreover, there are inherent uncertainties associated with wind business. Can we overcome inadequate wind resources? Can we scientifically quantify uncertainty and model it to make business sense? This paper proposes a solution, by way of break-through Wind Technologies, combined with advanced tools for Financial Modeling, enabling vital business decisions.

  10. Uncertainties in modeling hazardous gas releases for emergency response

    OpenAIRE

    Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer; Sirma Stenzel

    2011-01-01

    In case of an accidental release of toxic gases the emergency responders need fast information about the affected area and the maximum impact. Hazard distances calculated with the models MET, ALOHA, BREEZE, TRACE and SAMS for scenarios with chlorine, ammoniac and butane releases are compared in this study. The variations of the model results are measures for uncertainties in source estimation and dispersion calculation. Model runs for different wind speeds, atmospheric stability and roughness...

  11. Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik

    Cost reductions for offshore wind turbines are a substantial requirement in order to make offshore wind energy more competitive compared to other energy supply methods. During the 20 – 25 years of wind turbines useful life, Operation & Maintenance costs are typically estimated to be a quarter...... to one third of the total cost of energy. Reduction of Operation & Maintenance costs will result in significant cost savings and result in cheaper electricity production. Operation & Maintenance processes mainly involve actions related to replacements or repair. Identifying the right times when...... for Operation & Maintenance planning. Concentrating efforts on development of such models, this research is focused on reliability modeling of Wind Turbine critical subsystems (especially the power converter system). For reliability assessment of these components, structural reliability methods are applied...

  12. Wind tunnel AVERT model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian DOBRE

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The AVERT project aims to asses the oscillatory blowing on the flap for a high-lift configuration (wing with flap, and involves both experimental (low speed wind tunnel INCAS and numerical activities.At low speed the active flow control may lead to a reduction or elimination of the flow separation on the high-lift devices, such as flaps, and involves the introduction or re distribution of momentum within the boundary layer.High-lift systems utilized as particular profiles at a certain offset of the main wing may solve the disagreement between the requirements of cruise flight and landing, especially for low velocity take-off.

  13. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  14. Model county ordinance for wind projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

  15. Modeling and Control of Wind Turbine

    OpenAIRE

    Luis Arturo Soriano; Wen Yu; Jose de Jesus Rubio

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, the energy production by wind turbines has been increasing, because its production is environmentally friendly; therefore, the technology developed for the production of energy through wind turbines brings great challenges in the investigation. This paper studies the characteristics of the wind turbine in the market and lab; it is focused on the recent advances of the wind turbine modeling with the aerodynamic power and the wind turbine control with the nonlinear, fu...

  16. Wind model for offshore power simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Hervada Sala, Carme; Jarauta Bragulat, Eusebio; Gibergans Baguena, José; Buenestado Caballero, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Offshore wind energy is an alternative energy source of increased interest. A large offshore wind farms have been planned or under construction, mainly in northern Europe. One of the points needed to be able to implement offshore projects is to characterize and model the wind for marine generation. Models are needed for the design of the most appropriate control strategies. Some attempts have been done to do so; recently these models are implemented under a wind turbine block set in Matlab/Si...

  17. Advancements in Wind Integration Study Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Jones, W.; Searight, K.; Getman, D.; Harrold, S.; McCaa, J.; Cline, J.; Clark, C.

    2013-10-01

    Regional wind integration studies in the United States require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high-penetration scenarios. The wind data sets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as be time synchronized with available load profiles. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this paper fulfills these requirements. A wind resource dataset, wind power production time series, and simulated forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model run on a nationwide 2-km grid at 5-min resolution will be made publicly available for more than 110,000 onshore and offshore wind power production sites.

  18. Dynamic Models for Wind Turbines and Wind Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, M.; Santoso, S.

    2011-10-01

    The primary objective of this report was to develop universal manufacturer-independent wind turbine and wind power plant models that can be shared, used, and improved without any restrictions by project developers, manufacturers, and engineers. Manufacturer-specific models of wind turbines are favored for use in wind power interconnection studies. While they are detailed and accurate, their usages are limited to the terms of the non-disclosure agreement, thus stifling model sharing. The primary objective of the work proposed is to develop universal manufacturer-independent wind power plant models that can be shared, used, and improved without any restrictions by project developers, manufacturers, and engineers. Each of these models includes representations of general turbine aerodynamics, the mechanical drive-train, and the electrical characteristics of the generator and converter, as well as the control systems typically used. To determine how realistic model performance is, the performance of one of the models (doubly-fed induction generator model) has been validated using real-world wind power plant data. This work also documents selected applications of these models.

  19. Reliability Modeling of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik

    components. Thus, models of reliability should be developed and applied in order to quantify the residual life of the components. Damage models based on physics of failure combined with stochastic models describing the uncertain parameters are imperative for development of cost-optimal decision tools...... for Operation & Maintenance planning. Concentrating efforts on development of such models, this research is focused on reliability modeling of Wind Turbine critical subsystems (especially the power converter system). For reliability assessment of these components, structural reliability methods are applied....... Further, reliability modeling of load sharing systems is considered and a theoretical model is proposed based on sequential order statistics and structural systems reliability methods. Procedures for reliability estimation are detailed and presented in a collection of research papers....

  20. Uncertainties in modeling hazardous gas releases for emergency response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baumann-Stanzer, Kathrin; Stenzel, Sirma [Zentralanstalt fuer Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Vienna (Austria)

    2011-02-15

    In case of an accidental release of toxic gases the emergency responders need fast information about the affected area and the maximum impact. Hazard distances calculated with the models MET, ALOHA, BREEZE, TRACE and SAMS for scenarios with chlorine, ammoniac and butane releases are compared in this study. The variations of the model results are measures for uncertainties in source estimation and dispersion calculation. Model runs for different wind speeds, atmospheric stability and roughness lengths indicate the model sensitivity to these input parameters. In-situ measurements at two urban near-traffic sites are compared to results of the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) in order to quantify uncertainties in the meteorological input. The hazard zone estimates from the models vary up to a factor of 4 due to different input requirements as well as due to different internal model assumptions. None of the models is found to be 'more conservative' than the others in all scenarios. INCA wind-speeds are correlated to in-situ observations at two urban sites in Vienna with a factor of 0.89. The standard deviations of the normal error distribution are 0.8 ms{sup -1} in wind speed, on the scale of 50 degrees in wind direction, up to 4 C in air temperature and up to 10 % in relative humidity. The observed air temperature and humidity are well reproduced by INCA with correlation coefficients of 0.96 to 0.99. INCA is therefore found to give a good representation of the local meteorological conditions. Besides of real-time data, the INCA-short range forecast for the following hours may support the action planning of the first responders. (orig.)

  1. Uncertainties in modeling hazardous gas releases for emergency response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In case of an accidental release of toxic gases the emergency responders need fast information about the affected area and the maximum impact. Hazard distances calculated with the models MET, ALOHA, BREEZE, TRACE and SAMS for scenarios with chlorine, ammoniac and butane releases are compared in this study. The variations of the model results are measures for uncertainties in source estimation and dispersion calculation. Model runs for different wind speeds, atmospheric stability and roughness lengths indicate the model sensitivity to these input parameters. In-situ measurements at two urban near-traffic sites are compared to results of the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA in order to quantify uncertainties in the meteorological input. The hazard zone estimates from the models vary up to a factor of 4 due to different input requirements as well as due to different internal model assumptions. None of the models is found to be 'more conservative' than the others in all scenarios. INCA wind-speeds are correlated to in-situ observations at two urban sites in Vienna with a factor of 0.89. The standard deviations of the normal error distribution are 0.8 ms-1 in wind speed, on the scale of 50 degrees in wind direction, up to 4°C in air temperature and up to 10 % in relative humidity. The observed air temperature and humidity are well reproduced by INCA with correlation coefficients of 0.96 to 0.99. INCA is therefore found to give a good representation of the local meteorological conditions. Besides of real-time data, the INCA-short range forecast for the following hours may support the action planning of the first responders.

  2. An Appropriate Wind Model for Wind Integrated Power Systems Reliability Evaluation Considering Wind Speed Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Karki

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Adverse environmental impacts of carbon emissions are causing increasing concerns to the general public throughout the world. Electric energy generation from conventional energy sources is considered to be a major contributor to these harmful emissions. High emphasis is therefore being given to green alternatives of energy, such as wind and solar. Wind energy is being perceived as a promising alternative. This source of energy technology and its applications have undergone significant research and development over the past decade. As a result, many modern power systems include a significant portion of power generation from wind energy sources. The impact of wind generation on the overall system performance increases substantially as wind penetration in power systems continues to increase to relatively high levels. It becomes increasingly important to accurately model the wind behavior, the interaction with other wind sources and conventional sources, and incorporate the characteristics of the energy demand in order to carry out a realistic evaluation of system reliability. Power systems with high wind penetrations are often connected to multiple wind farms at different geographic locations. Wind speed correlations between the different wind farms largely affect the total wind power generation characteristics of such systems, and therefore should be an important parameter in the wind modeling process. This paper evaluates the effect of the correlation between multiple wind farms on the adequacy indices of wind-integrated systems. The paper also proposes a simple and appropriate probabilistic analytical model that incorporates wind correlations, and can be used for adequacy evaluation of multiple wind-integrated systems.

  3. Wind turbines and seismic hazard: a state-of-the-art review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, Evangelos; Thöns, Sebastian; Georgakis, Christos T.

    2016-01-01

    , India, Southern Europe and East Asia) highlight the necessity for thorough consideration of the seismic implications on these energy harnessing systems. Along these lines, this state-of-the-art paper presents a comparative survey of the published research relevant to the seismic analysis, design......Wind energy is a rapidly growing field of renewable energy, and as such, intensive scientific and societal interest has been already attracted. Research on wind turbine structures has been mostly focused on the structural analysis, design and/or assessment of wind turbines mainly against normal...... and assessment of wind turbines. Based on numerical simulation, either deterministic or probabilistic approaches are reviewed, because they have been adopted to investigate the sensitivity of wind turbines’ structural capacity and reliability in earthquake-induced loading. The relevance of seismic hazard...

  4. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian

    Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving...

  5. Uncertainty quantification in wind farm flow models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo

    uncertainties through a model chain are presented and applied to several wind energy related problems such as: annual energy production estimation, wind turbine power curve estimation, wake model calibration and validation, and estimation of lifetime equivalent fatigue loads on a wind turbine. Statistical...... the uncertainty in the lifetime performance of a wind turbine under realistic inflow conditions. Operational measurements of several large offshore wind farms are used to perform model calibration and validation of several stationary wake models. These results provide a guideline to identify the regions in which......This thesis formulates a framework to perform uncertainty quantification within wind energy. This framework has been applied to some of the most common models used to estimate the annual energy production in the planning stages of a wind energy project. Efficient methods to propagate input...

  6. Accelerated Hazards Mixture Cure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jiajia; Peng, Yingwei

    2010-01-01

    We propose a new cure model for survival data with a surviving or cure fraction. The new model is a mixture cure model where the covariate effects on the proportion of cure and the distribution of the failure time of uncured patients are separately modeled. Unlike the existing mixture cure models, the new model allows covariate effects on the failure time distribution of uncured patients to be negligible at time zero and to increase as time goes by. Such a model is particularly useful in some cancer treatments when the treat effect increases gradually from zero, and the existing models usually cannot handle this situation properly. We develop a rank based semiparametric estimation method to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the model. We compare it with existing models and methods via a simulation study, and apply the model to a breast cancer data set. The numerical studies show that the new model provides a useful addition to the cure model literature. PMID:19697127

  7. Hazard Warning: model misuse ahead

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dickey-Collas, M.; Payne, Mark; Trenkel, V.

    2014-01-01

    -users (i.e. mangers or policy developers). The combination of attributes leads to models that are considered to have empirical, mechanistic, or analytical characteristics, but not a combination of them. In fisheries science, many examples can be found of models with these characteristics. However, we......The use of modelling approaches in marine science, and in particular fisheries science, is explored. We highlight that the choice of model used for an analysis should account for the question being posed or the context of the management problem. We examine a model-classification scheme based...... on Richard Levins' 1966 work suggesting that models can only achieve two of three desirable model attributes: realism, precision, and generality. Model creation, therefore, requires trading-off of one of these attributes in favour of the other two: however, this is often in conflict with the desires of end...

  8. Colliding Stellar Wind Models with Orbital Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkin, Francis P.; O'Connor, Brendan

    2018-01-01

    We present thin-shell models for the collision between two ballistic stellar winds, including orbital motion.The stellar orbits are assumed circular, so that steady-state solutions exist in the rotating frame, where we include centrifugal and Coriolis forces. Exact solutions for the pre-shock winds are incorporated. Here we discuss 2-D model results for equal wind momentum-loss rates, although we allow for the winds to have distinct speeds and mass loss rates. For these unequal wind conditions, we obtain a clear violation of skew-symmetry, despite equal momentum loss rates, due to the Coriolis force.

  9. Wind farm models and control strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Iov, F.

    2005-01-01

    This report describes models and control strategies for 3 different concepts of wind farms. Initially, the potential in improvement of grid integration, structural loads and energy production is investigated in a survey of opportunities. Then simulationmodels are described, including wind turbine...... models for a fixed speed wind turbine with active stall control and a variable speed wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator. After that, the 3 wind farm concepts and control strategies are described.The 3 concepts are AC connected doubly fed turbines, AC connected active stall turbines and DC...

  10. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node....... a set of spatially distributed measurements from wind turbines. The information has to be communicated only within neighboring wind turbines. This will both reduce the calculation load by distributing them on all turbines and make the infrastructure more robust against faults and uncertainties. Moreover...

  11. Probabilistic Modeling of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei

    Wind energy is one of several energy sources in the world and a rapidly growing industry in the energy sector. When placed in offshore or onshore locations, wind turbines are exposed to wave excitations, highly dynamic wind loads and/or the wakes from other wind turbines. Therefore, most components...... in a wind turbine experience highly dynamic and time-varying loads. These components may fail due to wear or fatigue, and this can lead to unplanned shutdown repairs that are very costly. The design by deterministic methods using safety factors is generally unable to account for the many uncertainties. Thus......, a reliability assessment should be based on probabilistic methods where stochastic modeling of failures is performed. This thesis focuses on probabilistic models and the stochastic modeling of the fatigue life of the wind turbine drivetrain. Hence, two approaches are considered for stochastic modeling...

  12. Numerical Modelling of Extreme Natural Hazards in the Russian Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Surkova, Galina

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges and extreme waves are severe natural sea hazards. Due to the almost complete lack of natural observations of these phenomena in the Russian seas (Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic, White, Barents, Okhotsk, Kara), especially about their formation, development and destruction, they have been studied using numerical simulation. To calculate the parameters of wind waves for the seas listed above, except the Barents Sea, the spectral model SWAN was applied. For the Barents and Kara seas we used WAVEWATCH III model. Formation and development of storm surges were studied using ADCIRC model. The input data for models - bottom topography, wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover. In modeling of surges in the White and Barents seas tidal level fluctuations were used. They have been calculated from 16 harmonic constant obtained from global atlas tides FES2004. Wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover was taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2010, and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis for the period from 1979 to 2015. In modeling we used both regular and unstructured grid. The wave climate of the Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic and White seas was obtained. Also the extreme wave height possible once in 100 years has been calculated. The statistics of storm surges for the White, Barents and Azov Seas were evaluated. The contribution of wind and atmospheric pressure in the formation of surges was estimated. The technique of climatic forecast frequency of storm synoptic situations was developed and applied for every sea. The research was carried out with financial support of the RFBR (grant 16-08-00829).

  13. Wind gusts simulations using regional model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnova, M.; Rubinstein, K. G.; Kurbatov, G. A.

    2016-12-01

    Wind gusts are extreme event which can cause severe damage. They can reach significant values even at medium winds. However numerical atmospheric models are designed to represent average winds, not gusts. There are several methods to estimate wind gusts. They range from simple gust factor methods to complex methods using different variables that can be resolved by regional numeric weather models. Gusts can be considered as reflection from upper layers of the atmosphere or as fluctuations of wind speed connected with turbulence. Most frequently used methods were realized using WRF-ARW model forecasts. They are compared with each other and their performance in different cases was analyzed. Wind gusts obtained using different methods were compared to measurements on meteorological station network over European part of Russia as well as with high frequency wind speed measurements in several points. Most methods underestimate wind gusts except one which overestimates in many cases. A new combined method is suggested according to the results. According to stability type of atmospheric boundary layer different methods for estimation were chosen. These lead to obtain predictability of wind gust over 22 m/s over 80% in autumn and winter season. There are still some underestimate in summer season. Some methods used to detect convective instability areas with high probability of severe wind gusts. The authors acknowledge the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-05-00822 A)

  14. Aggregated wind power plant models consisting of IEC wind turbine models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Altin, Müfit; Göksu, Ömer; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2015-01-01

    speed wind turbine models (type 3 and type 4) with a power plant controller is presented. The performance of the detailed benchmark wind power plant model and the aggregated model are compared by means of simulations for the specified test cases. Consequently, the results are summarized and discussed...... turbines, parameters and models to represent each individual wind turbine in detail makes it necessary to develop aggregated wind power plant models considering the simulation time for power system stability studies. In this paper, aggregated wind power plant models consisting of the IEC 61400-27 variable...

  15. Atmospheric Dispersion Model Validation in Low Wind Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sawyer, Patrick

    2007-11-01

    Atmospheric plume dispersion models are used for a variety of purposes including emergency planning and response to hazardous material releases, determining force protection actions in the event of a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) attack and for locating sources of pollution. This study provides a review of previous studies that examine the accuracy of atmospheric plume dispersion models for chemical releases. It considers the principles used to derive air dispersion plume models and looks at three specific models currently in use: Aerial Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA), Emergency Prediction Information Code (EPIcode) and Second Order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF). Results from this study indicate over-prediction bias by the EPIcode and SCIPUFF models and under-prediction bias by the ALOHA model. The experiment parameters were for near field dispersion (less than 100 meters) in low wind speed conditions (less than 2 meters per second).

  16. A Comparison of Wind Flow Models for Wind Resource Assessment in Wind Energy Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Landry

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to assess the accuracy of various coupled mesoscale-microscale wind flow modeling methodologies for wind energy applications. This is achieved by examining and comparing mean wind speeds from several wind flow modeling methodologies with observational measurements from several 50 m met towers distributed across the study area. At the mesoscale level, with a 5 km resolution, two scenarios are examined based on the Mesoscale Compressible Community Model (MC2 model: the Canadian Wind Energy Atlas (CWEA scenario, which is based on standard input data, and the CWEA High Definition (CWEAHD scenario where high resolution land cover input data is used. A downscaling of the obtained mesoscale wind climate to the microscale level is then performed, where two linear microscale models, i.e., MsMicro and the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP, are evaluated following three downscaling scenarios: CWEA-WAsP, CWEA-MsMicro and CWEAHD-MsMicro. Results show that, for the territory studied, with a modeling approach based on the MC2 and MsMicro models, also known as Wind Energy Simulation Toolkit (WEST, the use of high resolution land cover and topography data at the mesoscale level helps reduce modeling errors for both the mesoscale and microscale models, albeit only marginally. At the microscale level, results show that the MC2-WAsP modeling approach gave substantially better results than both MC2 and MsMicro modeling approaches due to tweaked meso-micro coupling.

  17. Modelling the wind climate of Ireland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, H.P.; Landberg, L.

    1997-01-01

    The wind climate of Ireland has been calculated using the Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model KAMM. The climatology is represented by 65 frequency classes of geostrophic wind that were selected as equiangular direction sectors and speed intervals with equal frequency in a sector. The results...

  18. Small Signal Modeling of Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

    2017-01-01

    In large power electronic systems like a wind farm, the mutual interactions between the control systems of the power converters can lead to various stability and power quality problems. In order to predict the system dynamic behavior, this paper presents an approach to model a wind farm as a Multi...

  19. Probabilistic Harmonic Modeling of Wind Power Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim H.; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

    2017-01-01

    A probabilistic sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a grid-connected voltage-source converter is used to estimate harmonic emissions in a wind power plant (WPP) comprised of Type-IV wind turbines. The SD representation naturally partitioned converter generated voltage harmonics into those...... with deterministic phase and those with probabilistic phase. A case study performed on a string of ten 3MW, Type-IV wind turbines implemented in PSCAD was used to verify the probabilistic SD harmonic model. The probabilistic SD harmonic model can be employed in the planning phase of WPP projects to assess harmonic...

  20. Experimental Concepts for Testing Seismic Hazard Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, W.; Jordan, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Seismic hazard analysis is the primary interface through which useful information about earthquake rupture and wave propagation is delivered to society. To account for the randomness (aleatory variability) and limited knowledge (epistemic uncertainty) of these natural processes, seismologists must formulate and test hazard models using the concepts of probability. In this presentation, we will address the scientific objections that have been raised over the years against probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Owing to the paucity of observations, we must rely on expert opinion to quantify the epistemic uncertainties of PSHA models (e.g., in the weighting of individual models from logic-tree ensembles of plausible models). The main theoretical issue is a frequentist critique: subjectivity is immeasurable; ergo, PSHA models cannot be objectively tested against data; ergo, they are fundamentally unscientific. We have argued (PNAS, 111, 11973-11978) that the Bayesian subjectivity required for casting epistemic uncertainties can be bridged with the frequentist objectivity needed for pure significance testing through "experimental concepts." An experimental concept specifies collections of data, observed and not yet observed, that are judged to be exchangeable (i.e., with a joint distribution independent of the data ordering) when conditioned on a set of explanatory variables. We illustrate, through concrete examples, experimental concepts useful in the testing of PSHA models for ontological errors in the presence of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty. In particular, we describe experimental concepts that lead to exchangeable binary sequences that are statistically independent but not identically distributed, showing how the Bayesian concept of exchangeability generalizes the frequentist concept of experimental repeatability. We also address the issue of testing PSHA models using spatially correlated data.

  1. Modeling and robust control of wind turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilev, Bogdan

    2016-12-01

    In this paper a model of a wind turbine is evaluated, consisting of: wind speed model, mechanical and electrical model of generator and tower oscillation model. This model is linearized around of a nominal point. By using the linear model with uncertainties is synthesized a uncertain model. By using the uncertain model and robust control theory is developed a robust controller, which provide mode of stabilizing the rotor frequency and damping the tower oscillations. Finally is simulated work of nonlinear system and robust controller

  2. Extreme gust wind estimation using mesoscale modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries

    2014-01-01

    Currently, the existing estimation of the extreme gust wind, e.g. the 50-year winds of 3 s values, in the IEC standard, is based on a statistical model to convert the 1:50-year wind values from the 10 min resolution. This statistical model assumes a Gaussian process that satisfies the classical...... through turbulent eddies. This process is modeled using the mesoscale Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) model. The gust at the surface is calculated as the largest winds over a layer where the averaged turbulence kinetic energy is greater than the averaged buoyancy force. The experiments have been...... done for Denmark and two areas in South Africa. For South Africa, the extreme gust atlases from South Africa were created from the output of the mesoscale modelling using Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis (CFSR) forcing for the period 1998 – 2010. The extensive measurements including turbulence...

  3. Gradient lasso for Cox proportional hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohn, Insuk; Kim, Jinseog; Jung, Sin-Ho; Park, Changyi

    2009-07-15

    There has been an increasing interest in expressing a survival phenotype (e.g. time to cancer recurrence or death) or its distribution in terms of a subset of the expression data of a subset of genes. Due to high dimensionality of gene expression data, however, there is a serious problem of collinearity in fitting a prediction model, e.g. Cox's proportional hazards model. To avoid the collinearity problem, several methods based on penalized Cox proportional hazards models have been proposed. However, those methods suffer from severe computational problems, such as slow or even failed convergence, because of high-dimensional matrix inversions required for model fitting. We propose to implement the penalized Cox regression with a lasso penalty via the gradient lasso algorithm that yields faster convergence to the global optimum than do other algorithms. Moreover the gradient lasso algorithm is guaranteed to converge to the optimum under mild regularity conditions. Hence, our gradient lasso algorithm can be a useful tool in developing a prediction model based on high-dimensional covariates including gene expression data. Results from simulation studies showed that the prediction model by gradient lasso recovers the prognostic genes. Also results from diffuse large B-cell lymphoma datasets and Norway/Stanford breast cancer dataset indicate that our method is very competitive compared with popular existing methods by Park and Hastie and Goeman in its computational time, prediction and selectivity. R package glcoxph is available at http://datamining.dongguk.ac.kr/R/glcoxph.

  4. Modeling of the dynamics of wind to power conversion including high wind speed behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Bjerge, Martin Huus; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes and validates an efficient, generic and computationally simple dynamic model for the conversion of the wind speed at hub height into the electrical power by a wind turbine. This proposed wind turbine model was developed as a first step to simulate wind power time series...... for power system studies. This paper focuses on describing and validating the single wind turbine model, and is therefore neither describing wind speed modeling nor aggregation of contributions from a whole wind farm or a power system area. The state-of-the-art is to use static power curves for the purpose...... of power system studies, but the idea of the proposed wind turbine model is to include the main dynamic effects in order to have a better representation of the fluctuations in the output power and of the fast power ramping especially because of high wind speed shutdowns of the wind turbine. The high wind...

  5. Wave Modeling of the Solar Wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leon Ofman

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The acceleration and heating of the solar wind have been studied for decades using satellite observations and models. However, the exact mechanism that leads to solar wind heating and acceleration is poorly understood. In order to improve the understanding of the physical mechanisms that are involved in these processes a combination of modeling and observational analysis is required. Recent models constrained by satellite observations show that wave heating in the low-frequency (MHD, and high-frequency (ion-cyclotron range may provide the necessary momentum and heat input to coronal plasma and produce the solar wind. This review is focused on the results of several recent solar modeling studies that include waves explicitly in the MHD and the kinetic regime. The current status of the understanding of the solar wind acceleration and heating by waves is reviewed.

  6. Modeling Innovations Advance Wind Energy Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    In 1981, Glenn Research Center scientist Dr. Larry Viterna developed a model that predicted certain elements of wind turbine performance with far greater accuracy than previous methods. The model was met with derision from others in the wind energy industry, but years later, Viterna discovered it had become the most widely used method of its kind, enabling significant wind energy technologies-like the fixed pitch turbines produced by manufacturers like Aerostar Inc. of Westport, Massachusetts-that are providing sustainable, climate friendly energy sources today.

  7. Time Series Model of Wind Speed for Multi Wind Turbines based on Mixed Copula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nie Dan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Because wind power is intermittent, random and so on, large scale grid will directly affect the safe and stable operation of power grid. In order to make a quantitative study on the characteristics of the wind speed of wind turbine, the wind speed time series model of the multi wind turbine generator is constructed by using the mixed Copula-ARMA function in this paper, and a numerical example is also given. The research results show that the model can effectively predict the wind speed, ensure the efficient operation of the wind turbine, and provide theoretical basis for the stability of wind power grid connected operation.

  8. Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation: Mesoscale to Microscale Wind Farm Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanz Rodrigo, Javier [National Renewable Energy Centre (CENER), Sarriguren Spain; Chávez Arroyo, Roberto Aurelio [National Renewable Energy Centre (CENER), Sarriguren Spain; Moriarty, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden CO USA; Churchfield, Matthew [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden CO USA; Kosović, Branko [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder CO USA; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan [Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Roskilde Denmark; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose [Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Lyngby Denmark; Hahmann, Andrea [Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Roskilde Denmark; Mirocha, Jeffrey D. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA USA; Rife, Daran [DNV GL, San Diego CA USA

    2016-08-31

    The increasing size of wind turbines, with rotors already spanning more than 150 m diameter and hub heights above 100 m, requires proper modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) from the surface to the free atmosphere. Furthermore, large wind farm arrays create their own boundary layer structure with unique physics. This poses significant challenges to traditional wind engineering models that rely on surface-layer theories and engineering wind farm models to simulate the flow in and around wind farms. However, adopting an ABL approach offers the opportunity to better integrate wind farm design tools and meteorological models. The challenge is how to build the bridge between atmospheric and wind engineering model communities and how to establish a comprehensive evaluation process that identifies relevant physical phenomena for wind energy applications with modeling and experimental requirements. A framework for model verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification is established to guide this process by a systematic evaluation of the modeling system at increasing levels of complexity. In terms of atmospheric physics, 'building the bridge' means developing models for the so-called 'terra incognita,' a term used to designate the turbulent scales that transition from mesoscale to microscale. This range of scales within atmospheric research deals with the transition from parameterized to resolved turbulence and the improvement of surface boundary-layer parameterizations. The coupling of meteorological and wind engineering flow models and the definition of a formal model evaluation methodology, is a strong area of research for the next generation of wind conditions assessment and wind farm and wind turbine design tools. Some fundamental challenges are identified in order to guide future research in this area.

  9. Small Signal Modeling of Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

    2017-01-01

    In large power electronic systems like a wind farm, the mutual interactions between the control systems of the power converters can lead to various stability and power quality problems. In order to predict the system dynamic behavior, this paper presents an approach to model a wind farm as a Multi......-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) dynamic system, where the current control loops with Phase-Locked Loops (PLLs) are linearized around an operating point. Each sub-module of the wind farm is modeled as a 2×2 admittance matrix in dq-domain and all are combined together by using a dq nodal admittance matrix....... The frequency and damping of the oscillatory modes are calculated by finding the poles of the introduced MIMO matrix. Time-domain simulation results obtained from a 400-MW wind farm are used to verify the effectiveness of the presented model....

  10. Modelling of Wind Turbine Loads nearby a Wind Farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roscher, B.; Werkmeister, A.; Jacobs, G.; Schelenz, R.

    2017-05-01

    Each wind turbine experiences a variety of loads during its lifetime, especially inside a wind farm due to the wake effect between the turbines. This paper describes a possibility to observe a load spectrum while considering wake effects in a wind farm by through the turbulence intensity. The turbulence intensity is distributed along the wind rose of Alpha Ventus. For each turbulence intensity, a Weibull characteristic is calculated. The resulting wind fields are used to determine the loads through a multibody simulation of an imaginary wind turbine located at FINO-1, representing a closely placed wind turbine at the outer edge of a wind farm. These loads are analyzed and summed up. As expected, the change of the turbulence intensity due to the wake effect has an impact on the internal loading of a wind turbine inside a wind farm. Based on the assumed loading conditions, the maximum loads increased by a factor of almost 2.5.

  11. Estimate of airborne release of plutonium from Babcock and Wilcox plant as a result of severe wind hazard and earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishima, J.; Schwendiman, L.C.; Ayer, J.E.

    1978-10-01

    As part of an interdisciplinary study to evaluate the potential radiological consequences of wind hazard and earthquake upon existing commercial mixed oxide fuel fabrication plants, the potential mass airborne releases of plutonium (source terms) from such events are estimated. The estimated souce terms are based upon the fraction of enclosures damaged to three levels of severity (crush, puncture penetrate, and loss of external filter, in order of decreasing severity), called damage ratio, and the airborne release if all enclosures suffered that level of damage. The discussion of damage scenarios and source terms is divided into wind hazard and earthquake scenarios in order of increasing severity. The largest airborne releases from the building were for cases involving the catastrophic collapse of the roof over the major production areas--wind hazard at 110 mph and earthquakes with peak ground accelerations of 0.20 to 0.29 g. Wind hazards at higher air velocities and earthquakes with higher ground acceleration do not result in significantly greater source terms. The source terms were calculated as additional mass of respirable particles released with time up to 4 days; and, under these assumptions, approximately 98% of the mass of material of concern is made airborne from 2 h to 4 days after the event. The overall building source terms from the damage scenarios evaluated are shown in a table. The contribution of individual areas to the overall building source term is presented in order of increasing severity for wind hazard and earthquake.

  12. Spatial modelling of wind speed around windbreaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vigiak, O.; Sterk, G.; Warren, A.; Hagen, L.J.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a model to integrate windbreak shelter effects into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The GIS procedure incorporates the 1999 version windbreak sub-model of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS). Windbreak shelter is modeled in terms of friction velocity reduction, which

  13. Development and Analysis of a Hurricane Hazard Model for Disaster Risk Assessment in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pita, G. L.; Gunasekera, R.; Ishizawa, O. A.

    2014-12-01

    Hurricane and tropical storm activity in Central America has consistently caused over the past decades thousands of casualties, significant population displacement, and substantial property and infrastructure losses. As a component to estimate future potential losses, we present a new regional probabilistic hurricane hazard model for Central America. Currently, there are very few openly available hurricane hazard models for Central America. This resultant hazard model would be used in conjunction with exposure and vulnerability components as part of a World Bank project to create country disaster risk profiles that will assist to improve risk estimation and provide decision makers with better tools to quantify disaster risk. This paper describes the hazard model methodology which involves the development of a wind field model that simulates the gust speeds at terrain height at a fine resolution. The HURDAT dataset has been used in this study to create synthetic events that assess average hurricane landfall angles and their variability at each location. The hazard model also then estimates the average track angle at multiple geographical locations in order to provide a realistic range of possible hurricane paths that will be used for risk analyses in all the Central-American countries. This probabilistic hurricane hazard model is then also useful for relating synthetic wind estimates to loss and damage data to develop and calibrate existing empirical building vulnerability curves. To assess the accuracy and applicability, modeled results are evaluated against historical events, their tracks and wind fields. Deeper analyses of results are also presented with a special reference to Guatemala. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the

  14. Measuring and modelling of the wind on the scale of tall wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floors, Rogier Ralph

    and the negative wind speed bias at larger heights were not improved when a different synoptic forcing and a different vertical resolution were used in the model. The effect of baroclinity was explored for the two sites. The surface geostrophic wind, the gradient wind and the thermal wind were derived from...... simulations with a mesoscale model. In both locations the thermal wind up to 970 m was approximately Gaussianly distributed with a standard deviation of three m s−1 and the thermal wind vector varied seasonally due to temperature differences between sea and land. The wind veer was particularly sensitive...

  15. Multivariable Wind Modeling in State Space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Pedersen, B. J.

    2011-01-01

    Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of wind turbines. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper an empirical...... cross-spectral density function for the along-wind turbulence component over the rotor plane is taken as the starting point. The spectrum is spatially discretized in terms of a Hermitian cross-spectral density matrix for the turbulence state vector which turns out not to be positive definite. Since......-spectral density matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise. Finally, an accurate state space modeling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order, and estimation of a state space model...

  16. Modeling of Wind Turbine Gearbox Mounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morten K. Ebbesen

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper three bushing models are evaluated to find a best practice in modeling the mounting of wind turbine gearboxes. Parameter identification on measurements has been used to determine the bushing parameters for dynamic simulation of a gearbox including main shaft. The stiffness of the main components of the gearbox has been calculated. The torsional stiffness of the main shaft, gearbox and the mounting of the gearbox are of same order of magnitude, and eigenfrequency analysis clearly reveals that the stiffness of the gearbox mounting is of importance when modeling full wind turbine drivetrains.

  17. Further Results on Dynamic Additive Hazard Rate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengcheng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past, the proportional and additive hazard rate models have been investigated in the works. Nanda and Das (2011 introduced and studied the dynamic proportional (reversed hazard rate model. In this paper we study the dynamic additive hazard rate model, and investigate its aging properties for different aging classes. The closure of the model under some stochastic orders has also been investigated. Some examples are also given to illustrate different aging properties and stochastic comparisons of the model.

  18. Verification and Calibration of a Reduced Order Wind Farm Model by Wind Tunnel Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiber, J.; Nanos, E. M.; Campagnolo, F.; Bottasso, C. L.

    2017-05-01

    In this paper an adaptation of the FLORIS approach is considered that models the wind flow and power production within a wind farm. In preparation to the use of this model for wind farm control, this paper considers the problem of its calibration and validation with the use of experimental observations. The model parameters are first identified based on measurements performed on an isolated scaled wind turbine operated in a boundary layer wind tunnel in various wind-misalignment conditions. Next, the wind farm model is verified with results of experimental tests conducted on three interacting scaled wind turbines. Although some differences in the estimated absolute power are observed, the model appears to be capable of identifying with good accuracy the wind turbine misalignment angles that, by deflecting the wake, lead to maximum power for the investigated layouts.

  19. Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

    The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....

  20. Effective turbulence models and fatigue reliability in wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs; Tarp-Johansen, N.J.

    2008-01-01

    Modeling of turbulence within wind farms with 100 or more wind turbines is important both for extreme and fatigue limit states. Behind a wind turbine a wake is formed where the mean wind speed decreases slightly and the turbulence intensity increases significantly. This increase ill turbulence...... intensity in wakes behind wind turbines can imply a significant reduction in the fatigue lifetime of wind turbines placed in wakes. Ill this paper the design code model ill the wind turbine code [IEC 61400-1, Wind turbine generator systems - Part 1: Safety requirements. 2005] is evaluated from...

  1. Spectral coherence model for power fluctuations in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vigueras-Rodriguez, A.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Viedma, A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides a model for the coherence between wind speeds located in a horizontal plane corresponding to hub height of wind turbines in a large wind farm. The model has been developed using wind speed and power measurements from the 72 Wind Turbines and two of the meteorological masts from...... Nysted offshore wind farm during 9 months. The coherence model developed in this paper is intended for use of power fluctuations in large offshore wind farms. In this way, analysing the current coherence models it is shown the needing of a new one, adapted to the characteristic distances and the related...

  2. Wind farm related mortality among avian migrants - a remote sensing study and model analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Desholm, M.

    -2006) of migrating birds at the Nysted offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea, Denmark. This thesis poses and answers the following questions: a) what hazard factors do offshore wind farming pose to wild birds, b) how should one choose the key focal species to study, c) how can remote sensing techniques be applied......This thesis is the result of a PhD study on bird-wind farm collisions and consists of a synopsis, five published papers, one submitted manuscript and another ready for submission. The papers describe the fi ndings from pre- and post-construction visual, radar and thermal imaging studies (1999...... to the study of bird wind farm interactions, and d) specifi cally, how do waterbirds react when approaching an offshore wind farm? The main aim of the study was the development of a predictive bird-wind farm collision model that incorporates the avoidance rate of birds at multiple scales. Out of 235...

  3. Modelling and Measuring Flow and Wind Turbine Wakes in Large Wind Farms Offshore

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs

    2009-01-01

    Average power losses due to wind turbine wakes are of the order of 10 to 20% of total power output in large offshore wind farms. Accurately quantifying power losses due to wakes is, therefore, an important part of overall wind farm economics. The focus of this research is to compare different types...... power losses due to wakes and loads. The research presented is part of the EC-funded UpWind project, which aims to radically improve wind turbine and wind farm models in order to continue to improve the costs of wind energy. Reducing wake losses, or even reduce uncertainties in predicting power losses...

  4. Advances in wind erosion modelling in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrelli, Pasquale; Lugato, Emanuele; Alewell, Christine; Montanarella, Luca; Panagos, Panos

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion by wind is a serious environmental problem often resulting in severe forms of soil degradation. Wind erosion is also a phenomenon relevant for Europe, although this land degradation process has been overlooked until very recently. The state-of-the-art literature presents wind erosion as a process that locally affects the semi-arid areas of the Mediterranean region as well as the temperate climate areas of the northern European countries. Actual observations, field measurements and modelling assessments, however, are all extremely limited and highly unequally distributed across Europe. As a result, we currently lack comprehensive understanding about where and when wind erosion occurs in Europe, and the intensity of erosion that poses a threat to agricultural productivity. Today's challenge is to integrate the insights of local experiments and field-scale models into a new generation of large-scale wind erosion models. While naturally being less accurate than field-scale models, these large-scale modelling approaches still provide essential knowledge about where and when wind erosion occurs and can disclose the level of risk for agricultural productivity in specific areas. Here, we present a geographic information system (GIS) version of the RWEQ (named GIS-RWEQ) to quantitatively assess soil loss by wind over large study areas (Land Degradation & Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2588). The model designed to predict the daily soil loss potential at a ca. 1 km2 spatial resolution shows high consistency with local measurements reported in literature. The average soil loss predicted by GIS-RWEQ for the European arable land totals 62 million Mg yr-1, with an average area-specific soil loss of 0.53 Mg yr-1. The JRC model RUSLE2015, for the same area estimates 295 million Mg yr-1 of soil loss due to water erosion. Notably, soil loss by wind erosion in the European arable land could be as high as 20% of water erosion, even though the areas affected are mainly

  5. Wind Profiles and Wave Spectra for Potential Wind Farms in South China Sea. Part I: Wind Speed Profile Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yichao Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the setting of wind energy harvesting moving from coastal waters to deep waters, the South China Sea has been deemed to offer great potential for the construction of floating wind farms thanks to the abundance of wind energy resources. An engineering model describing the wind profiles and wave spectra specific to the South China Sea conditions, which is the precondition for offshore wind farm construction, has, however, not yet been proposed. In the present study, a series of numerical simulations have been conducted using the Weather Forecast and Research model. Through analyzing the wind and wave information extracted from the numerical simulation results, engineering models to calculate vertical profiles of wind speeds and wave spectra have been postulated. While the present paper focuses on the wind profile model, a companion paper articulates the wave spectrum model. For wind profiles under typhoon conditions, the power-law and log-law models have been found applicable under the condition that the Hellmann exponent α or the friction velocity u * are modified to vary with the wind strength. For wind profiles under non-typhoon conditions, the log-law model is revised to take into consideration the influence of the atmospheric stability.

  6. Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanz Rodrigo, Javier; Chávez Arroyo, Roberto Aurelio; Moriarty, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    structure with unique physics. This poses significant challenges to traditional wind engineering models that rely on surface-layer theories and engineering wind farm models to simulate the flow in and around wind farms. However, adopting an ABL approach offers the opportunity to better integrate wind farm......The increasing size of wind turbines, with rotors already spanning more than 150m diameter and hub heights above 100m, requires proper modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) from the surface to the free atmosphere. Furthermore, large wind farm arrays create their own boundary layer...... of meteorological and wind engineering flow models and the definition of a formal model evaluation methodology, is a strong area of research for the next generation of wind conditions assessment and wind farm and wind turbine design tools. Some fundamental challenges are identified in order to guide future research...

  7. Unified Model of Multiple Wind Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutule, A.; Kochukov, O.

    2014-08-01

    An approach is proposed to the modelling of wind farms in the electric power system long-term planning. It allows a specialist to perform calculations based on scanty information and offers a set of ready-to-use data for easy, fast, and precise modelling. The authors exemplify the calculations of wind speed probability density and power curves and give an idea for relevant corrections. They also show how to pass from a single wind turbine model to the unified model of multiple wind turbines which would meet the requirements of long-term planning tasks. The paper presents the data on wind farms that are operating in UK and Oceania Rakstā ir apskatīta vēja elektrostaciju modelēšana ilgtermiņa attīstības plānošanas uzdevumos. Modelēšana tika veikta, izmantojot ierobežotu datu apjomu, kuri bija piejami lietotājam. Gatavie dati deva iespēju veikt ātru un precīzu modelēšanu. Raksts piedāva metodi kā pāriet no viena vēja ģeneratora modeli uz vēja elektrostaciju (vairāki vēja ģeneratori) modeli, kas atbilst ilgtermiņa attīstības plānošanas prasībām. Rakstā atspoguļoti dati no Okeānijas un Lielbritānijas eksistējošām vēja elektrostacijām

  8. Simulation analysis of a wind farm with different aggregated models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, H.; Wang, H.; Zhao, B.

    2011-01-01

    Based on a wind farm including wind turbines with squirrel cage induction generators (SCIGs), different aggregated models of a wind farm, such as a single weighted average model, a reduced-order re-scaled model, a parameter transformed model and a single weighted arithmetic model were presented, ...

  9. IEA Wind Task 37: Systems Modeling Framework and Ontology for Wind Turbines and Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dykes, Katherine L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zahle, Frederik [Technical University of Denmark; Merz, Karl [SINTEF Energy Research; McWilliam, Mike [Technical University of Denmark; Bortolotti, Pietro [Technical University Munich

    2017-08-14

    This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the development of a system modeling framework and ontology for wind turbines and plants as part of the larger IEA Wind Task 37 on wind energy systems engineering. The goals of the effort are to create a set of guidelines for a common conceptual architecture for wind turbines and plants so that practitioners can more easily share descriptions of wind turbines and plants across multiple parties and reduce the effort for translating descriptions between models; integrate different models together and collaborate on model development; and translate models among different levels of fidelity in the system.

  10. Development and validation of computational wind field model (Wind scape)

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, D.; Kim, B. -Y

    2012-01-01

    Wind field data is essential for the accurate prediction of forest fire spread. For the accurate prediction of local wind field we developed computational fluid dynamics simulation procedure. Using terrain and wind information as input data three dimensional computational mesh is automatically generated. GIS data of the format DEM(Digital Elevation Map) is directly converted to quad surface mesh and full hexahedral space mesh is automatically generated. Around this mesh we made extended compu...

  11. Modeling wind speed and wind power distributions in Rwanda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safari, Bonfils [Department of Physics, National University of Rwanda, P.O. Box 117, Huye District, South Province (Rwanda)

    2011-02-15

    Utilization of wind energy as an alternative energy source may offer many environmental and economical advantages compared to fossil fuels based energy sources polluting the lower layer atmosphere. Wind energy as other forms of alternative energy may offer the promise of meeting energy demand in the direct, grid connected modes as well as stand alone and remote applications. Wind speed is the most significant parameter of the wind energy. Hence, an accurate determination of probability distribution of wind speed values is very important in estimating wind speed energy potential over a region. In the present study, parameters of five probability density distribution functions such as Weibull, Rayleigh, lognormal, normal and gamma were calculated in the light of long term hourly observed data at four meteorological stations in Rwanda for the period of the year with fairly useful wind energy potential (monthly hourly mean wind speed anti v{>=}2 m s{sup -1}). In order to select good fitting probability density distribution functions, graphical comparisons to the empirical distributions were made. In addition, RMSE and MBE have been computed for each distribution and magnitudes of errors were compared. Residuals of theoretical distributions were visually analyzed graphically. Finally, a selection of three good fitting distributions to the empirical distribution of wind speed measured data was performed with the aid of a {chi}{sup 2} goodness-of-fit test for each station. (author)

  12. Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis [Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew Thompson; Jord J. Warmink

    2017-01-01

    Modeling can play a critical role in assessing and mitigating risks posed by natural hazards. These modeling efforts generally aim to characterize the occurrence, intensity, and potential consequences of natural hazards. Uncertainties surrounding the modeling process can have important implications for the development, application, evaluation, and interpretation of...

  13. Coordinate descent methods for the penalized semiparametric additive hazards model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Scheike, Thomas

    . The semiparametric additive hazards model is a flexible alternative which is a natural survival analogue of the standard linear regression model. Building on this analogy, we develop a cyclic coordinate descent algorithm for fitting the lasso and elastic net penalized additive hazards model. The algorithm requires...

  14. Coordinate descent methods for the penalized semiprarametric additive hazard model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Scheike, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    . The semiparametric additive hazards model is a flexible alternative which is a natural survival analogue of the standard linear regression model. Building on this analogy, we develop a cyclic coordinate descent algorithm for fitting the lasso and elastic net penalized additive hazards model. The algorithm requires...

  15. Pitchcontrol of wind turbines using model free adaptivecontrol based on wind turbine code

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yunqian; Chen, Zhe; Cheng, Ming

    2011-01-01

    As the wind turbine is a nonlinear high-order system, to achieve good pitch control performance, model free adaptive control (MFAC) approach which doesn't need the mathematical model of the wind turbine is adopted in the pitch control system in this paper. A pseudo gradient vector whose estimation...... value is only based on I/O data of the wind turbine is identified and then the wind turbine system is replaced by a dynamic linear time-varying model. In order to verify the correctness and robustness of the proposed model free adaptive pitch controller, the wind turbine code FAST which can predict...

  16. Model Predictive Control with Constraints of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2007-01-01

    Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure a...... an efficient control of the wind turbine over the entire range of wind speeds. Both onshore and floating offshore wind turbines are tested with the controllers.......Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure...

  17. Benchmarking of Wind Turbine Wake Models in Large Offshore Windfarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaumond, M.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Bechmann, Andreas

    Quantifying accurately wind turbine wakes is a key aspect of wind farm economics in large wind farms. This research compares three engineering wake models with power production data from the Horns Rev and Lillgrund offshore wind farms. Single and multiple wake cases are investigated to verify...

  18. Unsteady aerodynamic modelling of wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coton, F.N.; Galbraith, R.A. [Univ. og Glasgow, Dept. of Aerospace Engineering, Glasgow (United Kingdom)

    1997-08-01

    The following current and future work is discussed: Collaborative wind tunnel based PIV project to study wind turbine wake structures in head-on and yawed flow. Prescribed wake model has been embedded in a source panel representation of the wind tunnel walls to allow comparison with experiment; Modelling of tower shadow using high resolution but efficient vortex model in tower shadow domain; Extension of model to yawing flow; Upgrading and tuning of unsteady aerodynamic model for low speed, thick airfoil flows. Glasgow has a considerable collection of low speed dynamic stall data. Currently, the Leishman - Beddoes model is not ideally suited to such flows. For example: Range of stall onset criteria used for dynamic stall prediction including Beddoes. Wide variation of stall onset prediction. Beddoes representation was developed primarily with reference to compressible flows. Analyses of low speed data from Glasgow indicate deficiencies in the current model; Predicted versus measured response during ramp down motion. Modification of the Beddoes representation is required to obtain a fit with the measured data. (EG)

  19. Landslide hazard assessment using digital elevation models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fenton, Gordon A; McLean, Amanda; Nadim, Farrokh; Griffiths, D.V

    2013-01-01

    .... A landslide hazard assessment framework capable of estimating regional probabilities of slope failure can be used to aid a vast number of communities currently living in landslide “danger zones...

  20. Model of wind shear conditional on turbulence and its impact on wind turbine loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Natarajan, Anand; Kelly, Mark C.

    2015-01-01

    different turbine components are evaluated under the full wind measurements, using the developed wind shear model and with standard wind conditions prescribed in the IEC 61400-1 ed. 3. The results display the effect of the Wöhler exponent and reveal that under moderate turbulence, the effect of wind shear...... on turbine blades. Although the influence of wind shear on extreme loads was found to be negligible, the IEC 61400-1 wind shear definition was found to result in non-conservative estimates of the 50 year extreme blade deflection toward the tower, especially under extreme turbulence conditions. Copyright...... proposed for flat terrain and that can significantly decrease the uncertainty associated with fatigue load predictions for wind turbines with large rotors. An essential contribution is the conditioning of wind shear on the 90% quantile of wind turbulence, such that the appropriate magnitude of the design...

  1. Incident Duration Modeling Using Flexible Parametric Hazard-Based Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruimin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Assessing and prioritizing the duration time and effects of traffic incidents on major roads present significant challenges for road network managers. This study examines the effect of numerous factors associated with various types of incidents on their duration and proposes an incident duration prediction model. Several parametric accelerated failure time hazard-based models were examined, including Weibull, log-logistic, log-normal, and generalized gamma, as well as all models with gamma heterogeneity and flexible parametric hazard-based models with freedom ranging from one to ten, by analyzing a traffic incident dataset obtained from the Incident Reporting and Dispatching System in Beijing in 2008. Results show that different factors significantly affect different incident time phases, whose best distributions were diverse. Given the best hazard-based models of each incident time phase, the prediction result can be reasonable for most incidents. The results of this study can aid traffic incident management agencies not only in implementing strategies that would reduce incident duration, and thus reduce congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses, but also in effectively predicting incident duration time.

  2. On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning; Chavas, Daniel

    2012-05-01

    This study revisits the parametric modeling of the hurricane surface wind field composed of the storm vortex and the environmental background flow. First, we investigate the parametric representation of the surface background wind by analyzing its empirical relationship with storm movement. A marked deceleration and counter-clockwise rotation of the surface background wind from the storm translation vector is detected, a result predicted by the Ekman theory but rarely applied in wind and surge modeling. Then, we examine the various parameters used to model the wind field and, through numerical simulations, quantify their induced uncertainties in the extreme wind and surge estimates at two coastal sites. Our analyses show that, over the range of accepted values and methods in the literature, the local wind and surge estimates are most sensitive to uncertainties in the surface wind reduction factor and storm wind profile but less sensitive to uncertainties in other wind parameters, such as inflow angle and surface background wind (varying in the observed range). The surge is more sensitive than the wind to uncertainties in the wind parameters, and these sensitivities are comparable to the sensitivity of the surge to the uncertainty in the sea surface drag coefficient. We also find that some commonly used wind parameters unsupported by theory or observations can induce significant errors in the wind and surge estimates. The results of this study provide new insights and references for future hurricane wind and surge analysis.

  3. Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuting Wan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural wind is stochastic, being characterized by its speed and direction which change randomly and frequently. Because of the certain lag in control systems and the yaw body itself, wind turbines cannot be accurately aligned toward the wind direction when the wind speed and wind direction change frequently. Thus, wind turbines often suffer from a series of engineering issues during operation, including frequent yaw, vibration overruns and downtime. This paper aims to study the effects of yaw error on wind turbine running characteristics at different wind speeds and control stages by establishing a wind turbine model, yaw error model and the equivalent wind speed model that includes the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Formulas for the relevant effect coefficients Tc, Sc and Pc were derived. The simulation results indicate that the effects of the aerodynamic torque, rotor speed and power output due to yaw error at different running stages are different and that the effect rules for each coefficient are not identical when the yaw error varies. These results may provide theoretical support for optimizing the yaw control strategies for each stage to increase the running stability of wind turbines and the utilization rate of wind energy.

  4. Contribution to a dynamic wind turbine model validation from a wind farm islanding experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jørgen Kaas; Pedersen, Knud Ole Helgesen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2003-01-01

    Measurements from an islanding experiment on the Rejsby Hede wind farm, Denmark, are used for the validation of the dynamic model of grid-connected, stall-controlled wind turbines equipped with induction generators. The simulated results are found to be in good agreement with the measurements...... and possible discrepancies are explained. The work with the wind turbine model validation relates to the dynamic stability investigations on incorporation of large amount of wind power in the Danish power grid, where the dynamic wind turbine model is applied....

  5. Actuator disk model of wind farms based on the rotor average wind speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xing Xing; Xu, Chang; Liu, De You

    2016-01-01

    Due to difficulty of estimating the reference wind speed for wake modeling in wind farm, this paper proposes a new method to calculate the momentum source based on the rotor average wind speed. The proposed model applies volume correction factor to reduce the influence of the mesh recognition...... of disk regions. The coefficient C4ε of the turbulent source term is also discussed and modified to improve the simulation accuracy. To validate the model, results are presented for the Nibe-B wind turbine and Horns Rev I offshore wind farm and show a good agreement with the measurements....

  6. Modelling of power fluctuations from large offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Vigueras-Rodriguez, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with modelling of power fluctuations from large wind farms. The modelling is supported and validated using wind speed and power measurements from the two large offshore wind farms in Denmark. The time scale in focus is from 1 min to a couple of hours, where significant power...... fluctuations have been observed from these wind farms. Power and wind speed are measured with 1 s sampling time in all individual wind turbines in almost 1 year, which provides a substantial database for the analyses. The paper deals with diversified models representing each wind turbine individually...... and with aggregation of a wind farm to be represented by a single large wind turbine model. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  7. Models for simulation of transient events in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, P.; Hansen, A. D.; Bindner, H.

    2002-01-01

    with different tools with each other and with measurements. This present paper limits to describe the models including our reflections on which effects we expect to be essential for obtaining useful simulation results. The models comprise the substation, where the wind farm is connected, the power collection...... system in the wind farm, and electric, mechanical and aerodynamic models for the wind turbines....

  8. Comparing satellite SAR and wind farm wake models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Vincent, P.; Husson, R.

    2015-01-01

    . These extend several tens of kilometres downwind e.g. 70 km. Other SAR wind maps show near-field fine scale details of wake behind rows of turbines. The satellite SAR wind farm wake cases are modelled by different wind farm wake models including the PARK microscale model, the Weather Research and Forecasting...

  9. Fluctuations of offshore wind generation: Statistical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Christensen, Lasse E.A.; Madsen, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    ) and Markov-Switching AutoRegressive (MSAR) models are considered. The particularities of these models are presented, as well as methods for the estimation of their parameters. Simulation results are given for the case of the Horns Rev and Nysted offshore wind farms in Denmark, for time-series of power...... production averaged at a 1, 5, and 10-minute rate. The exercise consists in one-step ahead forecasting of these time-series with the various regime-switching models. It is shown that the MSAR model, for which the succession of regimes is represented by a hidden Markov chain, significantly outperforms...

  10. IEA Wind Task 37 System Modeling Framework and Ontology for Wind Turbines and Plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dykes, K; Sanchez Perez Moreno, S.; Zahle, Frederik; Ning, A; McWilliam, M.; Zaayer, M.B.

    2017-01-01

    This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the development of a system modeling framework and ontology for wind turbines and plants as part of the larger IEA Wind Task 37 on wind energy systems engineering. The goals of the effort are to create a set of guidelines for a common

  11. An improved canopy wind model for predicting wind adjustment factors and wildland fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. J. Massman; J. M. Forthofer; M. A. Finney

    2017-01-01

    The ability to rapidly estimate wind speed beneath a forest canopy or near the ground surface in any vegetation is critical to practical wildland fire behavior models. The common metric of this wind speed is the "mid-flame" wind speed, UMF. However, the existing approach for estimating UMF has some significant shortcomings. These include the assumptions that...

  12. Guest Editorial Modeling and Advanced Control of Wind Turbines/Wind Farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, J.; Hou, Y.; Zhu, Z.; Xu, D.; Xu, D.; Muljadi, E.; Liu, F.; Iwanski, G.; Geng, H.; Erlich, I.; Wen, J.; Harnefors, L.; Fan, L.; El Moursi, M. S.; Kjaer, P. C.; Nelson, R. J.; Cardenas, R.; Feng, S.; Islam, S.; Qiao, W.; Yuan, X.

    2017-09-01

    The papers in this special section brings together papers focused on the recent advancements and breakthroughs in the technology of modeling and enhanced active/reactive power control of wind power conversion systems, ranging from components of wind turbines to wind farms.

  13. Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

  14. Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, A. C.; Erikson, L. H.; Barnard, P. L.

    2017-05-01

    While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975-2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves

  15. Operational Generation of Urban Wind Fields to Support Transport and Dispersion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, J. H.; Sheu, R.; Brown, M. J.

    2007-12-01

    A realistic wind field is a key component to any transport and dispersion model simulation. In the urban environment observing the wind field accurately is complicated by the presence of the building structures themselves. In situ measurements are only representative over a limited area near the point of observation due to the influence of nearby buildings. Winds observed remotely, via radar or lidar, have good spatial resolution, but are limited to making measurements above rooftop. The Urban Shield project is an emergency response system for hazardous atmospheric releases in Arlington County Virginia. To provide building aware wind fields over a 100 square kilometer area for transport and dispersion modeling we use a combined approach of remotely sensed wind observations and very high resolution, ~10 meters, diagnostic wind modeling. In brief, the system uses 3-D wind analyses from Doppler radar and lidar as input to Los Alamos National Laboratory's QUIC-Urb empirical wind model. An overview of the system and results will be presented.

  16. Wind modelling over complex terrain using CFD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avila, Matias; Owen, Herbert; Folch, Arnau; Prieto, Luis; Cosculluela, Luis

    2015-04-01

    The present work deals with the numerical CFD modelling of onshore wind farms in the context of High Performance Computing (HPC). The CFD model involves the numerical solution of the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations together with a κ-ɛ turbulence model and the energy equation, specially designed for Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flows. The aim is to predict the wind velocity distribution over complex terrain, using a model that includes meteorological data assimilation, thermal coupling, forested canopy and Coriolis effects. The modelling strategy involves automatic mesh generation, terrain data assimilation and generation of boundary conditions for the inflow wind flow distribution up to the geostrophic height. The CFD model has been implemented in Alya, a HPC multi physics parallel solver able to run with thousands of processors with an optimal scalability, developed in Barcelona Supercomputing Center. The implemented thermal stability and canopy physical model was developed by Sogachev in 2012. The k-ɛ equations are of non-linear convection diffusion reaction type. The implemented numerical scheme consists on a stabilized finite element formulation based on the variational multiscale method, that is known to be stable for this kind of turbulence equations. We present a numerical formulation that stresses on the robustness of the solution method, tackling common problems that produce instability. The iterative strategy and linearization scheme is discussed. It intends to avoid the possibility of having negative values of diffusion during the iterative process, which may lead to divergence of the scheme. These problems are addressed by acting on the coefficients of the reaction and diffusion terms and on the turbulent variables themselves. The k-ɛ equations are highly nonlinear. Complex terrain induces transient flow instabilities that may preclude the convergence of computer flow simulations based on steady state formulation of the

  17. Actuator Line Modeling of Wind Turbine Wakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Niels

    2009-01-01

    This thesis contains a comprehensive 3D Navier-Stokes computational study of the characteristics of wakes of wind turbines operating in various flow conditions including interacting wakes between a row of turbines. The computations were carried out using the actuator line technique combined...... and it is shown that the turbines are subject to rather severe yaw moments, even in situations where the mean wind is oriented along the row. This observation is indicative of large scale dynamics of the wakes....... with the 3D Navier Stokes solver EllipSys3D and a LES turbulence model. Simple models, based on applying body forces in the computational domain, are developed for imposing sheared and turbulent infow and their validity is discussed. A few computations on stand alone turbines are compared to measurements...

  18. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  19. Wind Turbine and Wind Power Plant Modelling Aspects for Power System Stability Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Altin, Müfit; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Göksu, Ömer

    2014-01-01

    Large amount of wind power installations introduce modeling challenges for power system operators at both the planning and operational stages of power systems. Depending on the scope of the study, the modeling details of the wind turbine or the wind power plant are required to be different. A wind...... turbine model which is developed for the short-term voltage stability studies can be inaccurate and sufficient for the frequency stability studies. Accordingly, a complete and detailed wind power plant model for every kind of study is not feasible in terms of the computational time and also...... and wind power plants are reviewed for power system stability studies. Important remarks of the models are presented by means of simulations to emphasize the impact of these modelling details on the power system....

  20. Forecasting wind power production from a wind farm using the RAMS model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tiriolo, L.; Torcasio, R. C.; Montesanti, S.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of wind power forecast is commonly recognized because it represents a useful tool for grid integration and facilitates the energy trading. This work considers an example of power forecast for a wind farm in the Apennines in Central Italy. The orography around the site is complex...... and the horizontal resolution of the wind forecast has an important role. To explore this point we compared the performance of two 48 h wind power forecasts using the winds predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for the year 2011. The two forecasts differ only for the horizontal resolution...... of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), whose horizontal resolution over Central Italy is about 25 km at the time considered in this paper. Because wind observations were not available for the site, the power curve for the whole wind farm was derived from the ECMWF wind operational analyses available...

  1. Attenuating wind turbine loads through model based individual pitch control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz; Niemann, Hans Henrik; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we consider wind turbine load attenuation through model based control. Asymmetric loads caused by the wind field can be reduced by pitching the blades individually. To this end we investigate the use of stochastic models of the wind which can be included in a model based individual....... The individual pitch controller design in investigated in simulations....... pitch controller design. In this way the variability of the wind can be estimated and compensated for by the controller. The wind turbine model is in general time-variant due to its rotational nature. For this reason the modeling and control is carried out in so-called multiblade coordinates...

  2. A model to predict the power output from wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

  3. Proportional hazards modeling of saccadic response times during reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Mattias; Nivre, Joakim

    2013-07-01

    In this article we use proportional hazards models to examine how low-level processes affect the probability of making a saccade over time, through the period of fixation, during reading. We apply the Cox proportional hazards model to investigate how launch distance (relative to word beginning), fixation location (relative to word center), and word frequency affect the hazard of a saccadic response. This model requires that covariates have a constant impact on the hazard over time, the assumption of proportional hazards. We show that this assumption is not supported. The impact of the covariates changes with the time passed since fixation onset. To account for the non-proportional hazards we fit step functions of time, resulting in a model with time-varying effects on the hazard. We evaluate the ability to predict the timing of saccades on held-out fixation data. The model with time-varying effects performs better in predicting the timing of saccades for fixations as short as 100 ms and as long as 500 ms, when compared both to a baseline model without covariates and a model which assumes constant covariate effects. This result suggests that the time-varying effects model better recovers the time course of low-level processes that influence the decision to move the eyes. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  4. Geospatial subsidence hazard modelling at Sterkfontein Caves ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper covers a GIS1 approach to identifying hazardous areas at the Sterkfontein Caves. It makes a contribution to risk assessment of land with shallow caves underneath it. The aim of the study is to ensure public safety in a concentrated area frequently visited by the public and is part of a programme to identify ...

  5. Estimation of Wind Turbulence Using Spectral Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The production and loading of wind farms are significantly influenced by the turbulence of the flowing wind field. Estimation of turbulence allows us to optimize the performance of the wind farm. Turbulence estimation is; however, highly challenging due to the chaotic behavior of the wind...... speed outside the wind field. The results show that the method is able to provide estimations which explain more than 50% of the wind turbulence from the distance of about 300 meters....

  6. Wind tunnel measurements of wake structure and wind farm power for actuator disk model wind turbines in yaw

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howland, Michael; Bossuyt, Juliaan; Kang, Justin; Meyers, Johan; Meneveau, Charles

    2016-11-01

    Reducing wake losses in wind farms by deflecting the wakes through turbine yawing has been shown to be a feasible wind farm control approach. In this work, the deflection and morphology of wakes behind a wind turbine operating in yawed conditions are studied using wind tunnel experiments of a wind turbine modeled as a porous disk in a uniform inflow. First, by measuring velocity distributions at various downstream positions and comparing with prior studies, we confirm that the nonrotating wind turbine model in yaw generates realistic wake deflections. Second, we characterize the wake shape and make observations of what is termed a "curled wake," displaying significant spanwise asymmetry. Through the use of a 100 porous disk micro-wind farm, total wind farm power output is studied for a variety of yaw configurations. Strain gages on the tower of the porous disk models are used to measure the thrust force as a substitute for turbine power. The frequency response of these measurements goes up to the natural frequency of the model and allows studying the spatiotemporal characteristics of the power output under the effects of yawing. This work has been funded by the National Science Foundation (Grants CBET-113380 and IIA-1243482, the WINDINSPIRE project). JB and JM are supported by ERC (ActiveWindFarms, Grant No. 306471).

  7. A Combined Reliability Model of VSC-HVDC Connected Offshore Wind Farms Considering Wind Speed Correlation

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a combined reliability model of voltage source converter-based high voltage direct current (VSCHVDC) connected offshore wind farms (WFs) using the frequency and duration technique. Firstly, a two-dimensional multi-state WF model is developed considering wind speed variations and WTGs outage. The wind speed correlation between different WFs is included in the two-dimensional multistate WF model by using an improved k-means clustering method. Then, the entire system with two...

  8. Wind climate modeling using Weibull and extreme value distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The most popular model for this purpose is Weibull distribution. Again, wind energy is proportional to the cube of the wind speed and the same Weibull model is appropriate for cubic wind speed with different parameters. But the problem with Weibull distribution is that it fails to describe the upper tail. The aim of this paper is ...

  9. Modelling and transient stability of large wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akhmatov, Vladislav; Knudsen, Hans; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

    2003-01-01

    The paper is dealing-with modelling and short-term Voltage stability considerations of large wind farms. A physical model of a large offshore wind farm consisting of a large number of windmills is implemented in the dynamic simulation tool PSS/E. Each windmill in the wind farm is represented by a...

  10. Electric solar wind sail mass budget model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Janhunen

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The electric solar wind sail (E-sail is a new type of propellantless propulsion system for Solar System transportation, which uses the natural solar wind to produce spacecraft propulsion. The E-sail consists of thin centrifugally stretched tethers that are kept charged by an onboard electron gun and, as such, experience Coulomb drag through the high-speed solar wind plasma stream. This paper discusses a mass breakdown and a performance model for an E-sail spacecraft that hosts a mission-specific payload of prescribed mass. In particular, the model is able to estimate the total spacecraft mass and its propulsive acceleration as a function of various design parameters such as the number of tethers and their length. A number of subsystem masses are calculated assuming existing or near-term E-sail technology. In light of the obtained performance estimates, an E-sail represents a promising propulsion system for a variety of transportation needs in the Solar System.

  11. Modelling of offshore wind turbine wakes with the wind farm program FLaP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lange, B.; Waldl, H.P.; Guerrero, A.G.

    2003-01-01

    behind one rotor. Here an approach based on the simplified Reynolds equation with eddy viscosity closure is chosen. The single-wakemodel is combined with a model for the vertical wind speed profile and a wind farm model, which takes care of the interaction of all wakes in a wind farm. The wake model has...... intensities in the wake are compared for single-, double- and quintuple-wake cases with different mean wind speed, turbulence intensity and atmospheric stability. It is found that within the measurement uncertainties the results of the wake model compare well with the measurements for the most important...... ambient conditions. The effect of the low turbulence intensity offshore on the wake development is modelled well for Vindeby wind farm. Deviations are found when atmospheric stability deviates from near-neutral conditions. For stable atmospheric conditions both the free vertical wind speed profile...

  12. A Novel Wind Speed Forecasting Model for Wind Farms of Northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian-Zhou; Wang, Yun

    2017-01-01

    Wind resources are becoming increasingly significant due to their clean and renewable characteristics, and the integration of wind power into existing electricity systems is imminent. To maintain a stable power supply system that takes into account the stochastic nature of wind speed, accurate wind speed forecasting is pivotal. However, no single model can be applied to all cases. Recent studies show that wind speed forecasting errors are approximately 25% to 40% in Chinese wind farms. Presently, hybrid wind speed forecasting models are widely used and have been verified to perform better than conventional single forecasting models, not only in short-term wind speed forecasting but also in long-term forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model is developed, the Similar Coefficient Sum (SCS) and Hermite Interpolation are exploited to process the original wind speed data, and the SVM model whose parameters are tuned by an artificial intelligence model is built to make forecast. The results of case studies show that the MAPE value of the hybrid model varies from 22.96% to 28.87 %, and the MAE value varies from 0.47 m/s to 1.30 m/s. Generally, Sign test, Wilcoxon's Signed-Rank test, and Morgan-Granger-Newbold test tell us that the proposed model is different from the compared models.

  13. Research on large-scale wind farm modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Longfei; Zhang, Baoqun; Gong, Cheng; Jiao, Ran; Shi, Rui; Chi, Zhongjun; Ding, Yifeng

    2017-01-01

    Due to intermittent and adulatory properties of wind energy, when large-scale wind farm connected to the grid, it will have much impact on the power system, which is different from traditional power plants. Therefore it is necessary to establish an effective wind farm model to simulate and analyze the influence wind farms have on the grid as well as the transient characteristics of the wind turbines when the grid is at fault. However we must first establish an effective WTGs model. As the doubly-fed VSCF wind turbine has become the mainstream wind turbine model currently, this article first investigates the research progress of doubly-fed VSCF wind turbine, and then describes the detailed building process of the model. After that investigating the common wind farm modeling methods and pointing out the problems encountered. As WAMS is widely used in the power system, which makes online parameter identification of the wind farm model based on off-output characteristics of wind farm be possible, with a focus on interpretation of the new idea of identification-based modeling of large wind farms, which can be realized by two concrete methods.

  14. Wind resource modelling for micro-siting - Validation at a 60-MW wind farm site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, J.C.; Gylling Mortensen, N. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Said, U.S. [New and Renewable Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)

    1999-03-01

    This paper investigates and validates the applicability of the WAsP-model for layout optimization and micro-siting of wind turbines at a given site for a 60-MW wind farm at Zafarana at the Gulf of Suez in Egypt. Previous investigations show large gradients in the wind climate within the area. For the design and optimization of the wind farm it was found necessary to verify the WAsP extrapolation of wind atlas results from 2 existing meteorological masts located 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. On-site measurements at the 3.5 x 3.5 km{sup 2} wind farm site in combination with 7 years of near-site wind atlas measurements offer significant amounts of data for verification of wind conditions for micro-siting. Wind speeds, wind directions, turbulence intensities and guests in 47.5 m a.g.l. have been measured at 9 locations across the site. Additionally, one of the site masts is equipped as a reference mast, measuring both vertical profiles of wind speed and temperature as well as air pressure and temperature. The exercise is further facilitated by the fact that winds are highly uni-directional; the north direction accounting for 80-90% of the wind resource. The paper presents comparisons of 5 months of on-site measurements and modeled predictions from 2 existing meteorological masts located at distances of 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. Predictions based on terrain descriptions of the Wind Atlas for the Gulf of Suez 1991-95 showed over-predictions of wind speeds of 4-10%. With calibrated terrain descriptions, made based on measured data and a re-visit to critical parts of the terrain, the average prediction error of wind speeds was reduced to about 1%. These deviations are smaller than generally expected for such wind resource modeling, clearly documenting the validity of using WAsP modeling for micro-siting and layout optimization of the wind farm. (au)

  15. Development and Verification of CFD Models for Modeling Wind Conditions on Forested Wind Turbine Sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Q.; Mortensen, Kasper; Nielsen, Daniel E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a proposed CFD model to simulate the wind conditions on a forested site. The model introduces porous subdomains representing the forests in the terrain. Obtained simulation values are compared to field measurements in- and outside a forest. Initial results are very promising...

  16. Modelling Wind Turbine Inflow: The Induction Zone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer Forsting, Alexander Raul

    A wind turbine decelerates the wind in front of its rotor by extracting kinetic energy. The wind speed reduction is maximal at the rotor and negligible more than five rotor radii upfront. By measuring wind speed this far from the rotor, the turbine’s performance is determined without any rotor bi...

  17. A Combined Reliability Model of VSC-HVDC Connected Offshore Wind Farms Considering Wind Speed Correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a combined reliability model of voltage source converter-based high voltage direct current (VSCHVDC) connected offshore wind farms (WFs) using the frequency and duration technique. Firstly, a two-dimensional multi-state WF model is developed considering wind speed variations......-HVDC system and wind speed correlation on the system reliability were analyzed. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate the impact of repair time of the offshore VSC-HVDC system on system reliability....

  18. Prescribed wind shear modelling with the actuator line technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Troldborg, Niels

    2007-01-01

    A method for prescribing arbitrary steady atmospheric wind shear profiles combined with CFD is presented. The method is furthermore combined with the actuator line technique governing the aerodynamic loads on a wind turbine. Computation are carried out on a wind turbine exposed to a representative...... steady atmospheric wind shear profile with and without wind direction changes up through the atmospheric boundary layer. Results show that the main impact on the turbine is captured by the model. Analysis of the wake behind the wind turbine, reveal the formation of a skewed wake geometry interacting...

  19. Wind Plant Models in IEC 61400-27-2 and WECC - latest developments in international standards on wind turbine and wind plant modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fortmann, Jens; Miller, Nicholas; Kazachkov, Yuri

    This paper describes the latest developments in the standardization of wind plant and wind plant controller models. As a first step IEC TC88 WG 27 and WECC jointly developed generic wind turbine models which have been published by WECC in 2014 and IEC in 2015 as IEC 61400-27-1, which also include...

  20. a model based on crowsourcing for detecting natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, J.; Ma, C.; Zhang, J.; Liu, S.; Liu, J.

    2015-12-01

    Remote Sensing Technology provides a new method for the detecting,early warning,mitigation and relief of natural hazards. Given the suddenness and the unpredictability of the location of natural hazards as well as the actual demands for hazards work, this article proposes an evaluation model for remote sensing detecting of natural hazards based on crowdsourcing. Firstly, using crowdsourcing model and with the help of the Internet and the power of hundreds of millions of Internet users, this evaluation model provides visual interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images of hazards area and collects massive valuable disaster data; secondly, this evaluation model adopts the strategy of dynamic voting consistency to evaluate the disaster data provided by the crowdsourcing workers; thirdly, this evaluation model pre-estimates the disaster severity with the disaster pre-evaluation model based on regional buffers; lastly, the evaluation model actuates the corresponding expert system work according to the forecast results. The idea of this model breaks the boundaries between geographic information professionals and the public, makes the public participation and the citizen science eventually be realized, and improves the accuracy and timeliness of hazards assessment results.

  1. Modeling of wind turbines for power system studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petru, T.

    2001-05-01

    When wind turbines are installed into the electric grid, the power quality is affected. Today, strict installation recommendations often prevail due to a lack of knowledge on this subject. Consequently, it is important to predict the impact of wind turbines on the electric grid before the turbines are installed. The thesis describes relevant power quality issues, discusses different configurations of wind turbines with respect to power quality and draw requirements regarding wind turbine modeling. A model of a stall-regulated, fixed-speed wind turbine system is introduced and its power quality impact on the electric grid is evaluated. The model is verified with field measurements.

  2. Uncovering wind turbine properties through two-dimensional stochastic modeling of wind dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raischel, Frank; Scholz, Teresa; Lopes, Vitor V; Lind, Pedro G

    2013-10-01

    Using a method for stochastic data analysis borrowed from statistical physics, we analyze synthetic data from a Markov chain model that reproduces measurements of wind speed and power production in a wind park in Portugal. We show that our analysis retrieves indeed the power performance curve, which yields the relationship between wind speed and power production, and we discuss how this procedure can be extended for extracting unknown functional relationships between pairs of physical variables in general. We also show how specific features, such as the rated speed of the wind turbine or the descriptive wind speed statistics, can be related to the equations describing the evolution of power production and wind speed at single wind turbines.

  3. Coupled wake boundary layer model of wind-farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stevens, Richard Johannes Antonius Maria; Gayme, Dennice F.; Meneveau, Charles

    2015-01-01

    We present and test a coupled wake boundary layer (CWBL) model that describes the distribution of the power output in a wind-farm. This model couples the traditional, industry-standard wake model approach with a “top-down” model for the overall wind-farm boundary layer structure. The wake model

  4. Fourier Simulation of a Non-Isotropic Wind Field Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mann, J.; Krenk, S.

    Realistic modelling of three dimensional wind fields has become important in calculation of dynamic loads on same spatially extended structures, such as large bridges, towers and wind turbines. For some structures the along wind component of the of the turbulent flow is important while for others...

  5. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  6. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling Installation and Decommissioning

    CERN Document Server

    Kaiser, Mark J

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind energy is one of the most promising and fastest growing alternative energy sources in the world. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a methodological framework to assess installation and decommissioning costs, and using examples from the European experience, provides a broad review of existing processes and systems used in the offshore wind industry. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a step-by-step guide to modeling costs over four sections. These sections cover: ·Background and introductory material, ·Installation processes and vessel requirements, ·Installation cost estimation, and ·Decommissioning methods and cost estimation.  This self-contained and detailed treatment of the key principles in offshore wind development is supported throughout by visual aids and data tables. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling is a key resource for anyone interested in the offshore wind industry, particularly those interested in the technical and economic aspects of installation and decom...

  7. Wind Turbine Noise and Natural Sounds : Masking, Propagation and Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Bolin, Karl

    2009-01-01

    Wind turbines are an environmentally friendly and sustainable power source. Unfortunately, the noise impact can cause deteriorated living conditions for nearby residents. The audibility of wind turbine sound is influenced by ambient sound. This thesis deals with some aspects of noise from wind turbines. Ambient sounds influence the audibility of wind turbine noise. Models for assessing two commonly occurring natural ambient sounds namely vegetation sound and sound from breaking waves are pres...

  8. Wind model for low frequency power fluctuations in offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vigueras-Rodríguez, A.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the correlation between the frequency components of the wind speed Power Spectral Density. The results extend an already existing power fluctuation model that can simulate power fluctuations of wind power on areas up to several kilometers and for time scales up to a couple...... of hours, taking into account the spectral correlation between different wind turbines. The modelling is supported by measurements from two large wind farms, namely Nysted and Horns Rev. Measurements from individual wind turbines and meteorological masts are used. Finally, the models are integrated...... is an improvement, but the effect is relatively small. The effect of including the low frequency components in the model is much more significant. Therefore, that aggregated model is useful in the power system planning and operation, e.g. regarding load following and regulation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons...

  9. Wind Farm Wake Models From Full Scale Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    This investigation is part of the EU FP7 project “Distributed Control of Large-Scale Offshore Wind Farms”. The overall goal in this project is to develop wind farm controllers giving power set points to individual turbines in the farm in order to minimise mechanical loads and optimise power. One...... on real full scale data. The modelling is based on so called effective wind speed. It is shown that there is a wake for a wind direction range of up to 20 degrees. Further, when accounting for the wind direction it is shown that the two model structures considered can both fit the experimental data...

  10. Dynamic stall model for wind turbine airfoils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, J.W.; Nielsen, S.R.K.; Krenk, Steen

    2007-01-01

    conditions, nonstationary effects are included by three mechanisms: a delay of the lift coefficient of fully attached flow via a second-order filter, a delay of the development of separation represented via a first-order filter, and a lift contribution due to leading edge separation also represented via......A model is presented for aerodynamic lift of wind turbine profiles under dynamic stall. The model combines memory delay effects under attached flow with reduced lift due to flow separation under dynamic stall conditions. The model is based on a backbone curve in the form of the static lift...... as a function of the angle of attack. The static lift is described by two parameters, the lift at fully attached flow and the degree of attachment. A relationship between these parameters and the static lift is available from a thin plate approximation. Assuming the parameters to be known during static...

  11. Modeling of wind turbines with doubly fed generator system

    CERN Document Server

    Fortmann, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Jens Fortmann describes the deduction of models for the grid integration of variable speed wind turbines and the reactive power control design of wind plants. The modeling part is intended as background to understand the theory, capabilities and limitations of the generic doubly fed generator and full converter wind turbine models described in the IEC 61400-27-1 and as 2nd generation WECC models that are used as standard library models of wind turbines for grid simulation software. Focus of the reactive power control part is a deduction of the origin and theory behind the reactive current requ

  12. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...... by the effective wind speed on the rotor disc. We take the wind speed as a scheduling variable. The wind speed is measurable ahead of the turbine using LIDARs, therefore, the scheduling variable is known for the entire prediction horizon. By taking the advantage of having future values of the scheduling variable......, we simplify state prediction for the MPC. Consequently, the control problem of the nonlinear system is simplified into a quadratic programming. We consider uncertainty in the wind propagation time, which is the traveling time of wind from the LIDAR measurement point to the rotor. An algorithm based...

  13. Frequency weighted model predictive control of wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klauco, Martin; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Mirzaei, Mahmood

    2013-01-01

    accordingly. In practice is very hard to measure the effective wind speed, this quantity will be estimated using measurements from the turbine itself. For this purpose stationary predictive Kalman filter has been used. Stochastic simulations of the wind turbine behaviour with applied frequency weighted model......This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work...... are the rotational degree of freedom of the rotor and the tower for-aft movement. The MPC design is based on a receding horizon policy and a linearised model of the wind turbine. Due to the change of dynamics according to wind speed, several linearisation points must be considered and the control design adjusted...

  14. Radiowave Propagation Prediction in a Wind Farm Enviroment and Wind Turbine Scattering Model

    OpenAIRE

    Calo Casanova, Alejandro; Calvo Ramón, Miguel; Haro Ariet, Leandro de; Blanco Gonzalez, Pedro

    2010-01-01

    One of the environmental effects of wind farms is the electromagnetic interference due to the scattering produced by the wind turbines on the electromagnetic waves of different radio communication services propagating through them. A previous work [4] is updated here and the scattering models for the nacelle and the wind turbine are shown and validated. Radio wave propagation losses are estimated more precisely through a parabolic equation approach. Finally, a comparison bet...

  15. Global empirical wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere. I. Prevailing wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. I. Portnyagin

    Full Text Available An updated empirical climatic zonally averaged prevailing wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere (70-110 km, extending from 80°N to 80°S is presented. The model is constructed from the fitting of monthly mean winds from meteor radar and MF radar measurements at more than 40 stations, well distributed over the globe. The height-latitude contour plots of monthly mean zonal and meridional winds for all months of the year, and of annual mean wind, amplitudes and phases of annual and semiannual harmonics of wind variations are analyzed to reveal the main features of the seasonal variation of the global wind structures in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Some results of comparison between the ground-based wind models and the space-based models are presented. It is shown that, with the exception of annual mean systematic bias between the zonal winds provided by the ground-based and space-based models, a good agreement between the models is observed. The possible origin of this bias is discussed.

    Key words: Meteorology and Atmospheric dynamics (general circulation; middle atmosphere dynamics; thermospheric dynamics

  16. Wind farm related mortality among avian migrants - a remote sensing study and model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desholm, M.

    2006-11-15

    This thesis is the result of a PhD study on bird-wind farm collisions and consists of a synopsis, five published papers, one submitted manuscript and another ready for submission. The papers describe the findings from pre- and post-construction visual, radar and thermal imaging studies (1999-2006) of migrating birds at the Nysted offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea, Denmark. This thesis poses and answers the following questions: a) what hazard factors do offshore wind farming pose to wild birds, b) how should one choose the key focal species to study, c) how can remote sensing techniques be applied to the study of bird wind farm interactions, and d) specifically, how do water birds react when approaching an offshore wind farm? The main aim of the study was the development of a predictive bird-wind farm collision model that incorporates the avoidance rate of birds at multiple scales. Out of 235,136 migrating sea ducks only 47 individuals were predicted to collide with the wind turbine rotor-blades, equivalent to an overall mean collision risk of c. 0.02%. This thesis shows the added value of modelling in supplementing sound empirical studies in accessing the effects of major human development pressures on migratory bird populations. (au)

  17. Laser safety hazard assessment — A generic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyrer, J. R.; Vassie, L. H.; Clarke, A. A.; Soufi, B.

    The status of laser safety amongst UK manufacturers is reported. A disturbing proportion feel the need for practical guidance on laser safety issues. Furthermore no improvements in laser safety protocols in the past 5 years are evident. Closer studies of the much larger laser user community and also the HSE Inspectorate has revealed a matrix of issues pertinent to users and their laser application. A need to support the user with practical information is demonstrated. Laser safety research activities have investigated the task of hazard assessment and a novel 'Loughborough Laser Hazard Assessment Model' has been defined and tested. The model provides a general methodology for hazard assessment and, furthermore, is the kernel of an advisory software system. The methodical approach to hazard assessment can be extended to risk assessment processes in laser and non-laser related activities.

  18. Reduced-rank hazard regression for modelling non-proportional hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perperoglou, Aris; le Cessie, Saskia; van Houwelingen, Hans C

    2006-08-30

    The Cox proportional hazards model is the most common method to analyse survival data. However, the proportional hazards assumption might not hold. The natural extension of the Cox model is to introduce time-varying effects of the covariates. For some covariates such as (surgical)treatment non-proportionality could be expected beforehand. For some other covariates the non-proportionality only becomes apparent if the follow-up is long enough. It is often observed that all covariates show similar decaying effects over time. Such behaviour could be explained by the popular (gamma-) frailty model. However, the (marginal) effects of covariates in frailty models are not easy to interpret. In this paper we propose the reduced-rank model for time-varying effects of covariates. Starting point is a Cox model with p covariates and time-varying effects modelled by q time functions (constant included), leading to a pxq structure matrix that contains the regression coefficients for all covariate by time function interactions. By reducing the rank of this structure matrix a whole range of models is introduced, from the very flexible full-rank model (identical to a Cox model with time-varying effects) to the very rigid rank one model that mimics the structure of a gamma-frailty model, but is easier to interpret. We illustrate these models with an application to ovarian cancer patients. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Multi-hazard response analysis of a 5MW offshore wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, Evangelos; Sanz, A. Arrospide; Georgakis, Christos T.

    2017-01-01

    Wind energy has already dominant role on the scene of the clean energy production. Well-promising markets, like China, India, Korea and Latin America are the fields of expansion for new wind turbines mainly installed in offshore environment, where wind, wave and earthquake loads threat...... response of the turbine’s tower was found to be severely affected by the earthquake excitations. Moreover, fragility analysis based on acceleration capacity thresholds for the nacelle’s equipment corroborated that the earthquake excitations may adversely affect the reliability and availability of wind...

  20. Models for wind turbines - a collection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, G.C.; Hansen, M.H. (eds.); Baumgart, A.

    2002-02-01

    This report is a collection of notes which were intended to be short communications. Main target of the work presented is to supply new approaches to stability investigations of wind turbines. The authors opinion is that an efficient, systematic stability analysis can not be performed for large systems of differential equations (i.e. the order of the differential equations > 100), because numerical 'effects' in the solution of the equations of motion as initial value problem, eigenvalue problem or whatsoever become predominant. It is therefore necessary to find models which are reduced to the elementary coordinates but which can still describe the physical processes under consideration with sufficiently good accuracy. Such models are presented. (au)

  1. Wall modeled LES of wind turbine wakes with geometrical effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricteux, Laurent; Benard, Pierre; Zeoli, Stephanie; Moureau, Vincent; Lartigue, Ghislain; Vire, Axelle

    2017-11-01

    This study focuses on prediction of wind turbine wakes when geometrical effects such as nacelle, tower, and built environment, are taken into account. The aim is to demonstrate the ability of a high order unstructured solver called YALES2 to perform wall modeled LES of wind turbine wake turbulence. The wind turbine rotor is modeled using an Actuator Line Model (ALM) while the geometrical details are explicitly meshed thanks to the use of an unstructured grid. As high Reynolds number flows are considered, sub-grid scale models as well as wall modeling are required. The first test case investigated concerns a wind turbine flow located in a wind tunnel that allows to validate the proposed methodology using experimental data. The second test case concerns the simulation of a wind turbine wake in a complex environment (e.g. a Building) using realistic turbulent inflow conditions.

  2. Wind turbine model and loop shaping controller design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilev, Bogdan

    2017-12-01

    A model of a wind turbine is evaluated, consisting of: wind speed model, mechanical and electrical model of generator and tower oscillation model. Model of the whole system is linearized around of a nominal point. By using the linear model with uncertainties is synthesized a uncertain model. By using the uncertain model is developed a H∞ controller, which provide mode of stabilizing the rotor frequency and damping the tower oscillations. Finally is simulated work of nonlinear system and H∞ controller.

  3. Differences in simulated fire spread over Askervein Hill using two advanced wind models and a traditional uniform wind field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jason Forthofer; Bret Butler

    2007-01-01

    A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model and a mass-consistent model were used to simulate winds on simulated fire spread over a simple, low hill. The results suggest that the CFD wind field could significantly change simulated fire spread compared to traditional uniform winds. The CFD fire spread case may match reality better because the winds used in the fire...

  4. Causal Mediation Analysis for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model with a Smooth Baseline Hazard Estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Albert, Jeffrey M

    2017-08-01

    An important problem within the social, behavioral, and health sciences is how to partition an exposure effect (e.g. treatment or risk factor) among specific pathway effects and to quantify the importance of each pathway. Mediation analysis based on the potential outcomes framework is an important tool to address this problem and we consider the estimation of mediation effects for the proportional hazards model in this paper. We give precise definitions of the total effect, natural indirect effect, and natural direct effect in terms of the survival probability, hazard function, and restricted mean survival time within the standard two-stage mediation framework. To estimate the mediation effects on different scales, we propose a mediation formula approach in which simple parametric models (fractional polynomials or restricted cubic splines) are utilized to approximate the baseline log cumulative hazard function. Simulation study results demonstrate low bias of the mediation effect estimators and close-to-nominal coverage probability of the confidence intervals for a wide range of complex hazard shapes. We apply this method to the Jackson Heart Study data and conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the impact on the mediation effects inference when the no unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding assumption is violated.

  5. Glide back booster wind tunnel model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricop, M. V.; Cojocaru, M. G.; Stoica, C. I.; Niculescu, M. L.; Neculaescu, A. M.; Persinaru, A. G.; Boscoianu, M.

    2017-07-01

    Affordable space access requires partial or ideally full launch vehicle reuse, which is in line with clean environment requirement. Although the idea is old, the practical use is difficult, requiring very large technology investment for qualification. Rocket gliders like Space Shuttle have been successfullyoperated but the price and correspondingly the energy footprint were found not sustainable. For medium launchers, finally there is a very promising platform as Falcon 9. For very small launchers the situation is more complex, because the performance index (payload to start mass) is already small, versus medium and heavy launchers. For partial reusable micro launchers this index is even smaller. However the challenge has to be taken because it is likely that in a multiyear effort, technology is going to enable the performance recovery to make such a system economically and environmentally feasible. The current paper is devoted to a small unitary glide back booster which is foreseen to be assembled in a number of possible configurations. Although the level of analysis is not deep, the solution is analyzed from the aerodynamic point of view. A wind tunnel model is designed, with an active canard, to enablea more efficient wind tunnel campaign, as a national level premiere.

  6. Multiobjective Optimization Model for Wind Power Allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Alemany

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for the injection to the grid of renewable energy; therefore, to evaluate the optimal location of new renewable generation is an important task. The primary purpose of this work is to develop a multiobjective optimization model that permits finding multiple trade-off solutions for the location of new wind power resources. It is based on the augmented ε-constrained methodology. Two competitive objectives are considered: maximization of preexisting energy injection and maximization of new wind energy injection, both embedded, in the maximization of load supply. The results show that the location of new renewable generation units affects considerably the transmission network flows, the load supply, and the preexisting energy injection. Moreover, there are diverse opportunities to benefit the preexisting generation, contrarily to the expected effect where renewable generation displaces conventional power. The proposed methodology produces a diverse range of equivalent solutions, expanding and enriching the horizon of options and giving flexibility to the decision-making process.

  7. Empirical models for predicting wind potential for wind energy applications in rural locations of Nigeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Odo, F.C. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Akubue, G.U.; Offiah, S.U.; Ugwuoke, P.E. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria)

    2013-07-01

    In this paper, we use the correlation between the average wind speed and ambient temperature to develop models for predicting wind potentials for two Nigerian locations. Assuming that the troposphere is a typical heterogeneous mixture of ideal gases, we find that for the studied locations, wind speed clearly correlates with ambient temperature in a simple polynomial of 3rd degree. The coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error of the models are 0.81; 0.0024 and 0.56; 0.0041, respectively, for Enugu (6.40N; 7.50E) and Owerri (5.50N; 7.00E). These results suggest that the temperature-based model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, in predicting wind potentials needed for preliminary design assessment of wind energy conversion devices for the locations and others with similar meteorological conditions.

  8. The Wind Profile in the Coastal Boundary Layer: Wind Lidar Measurements and Numerical Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floors, Rogier; Vincent, Claire Louise; Gryning, Sven-Erik

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally it has been difficult to verify mesoscale model wind predictions against observations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we used measurements from a wind lidar to study the PBL up to 800 m above the surface at a flat coastal site in Denmark during a one month period in autu...

  9. Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reiss, Martin A.; Temmer, Manuela; Veronig, Astrid M.

    2016-01-01

    High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate...

  10. Wind Turbine Control: Robust Model Based Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood

    . Wind turbines are the most common wind energy conversion systems and are hoped to be able to compete economically with fossil fuel power plants in near future. However this demands better technology to reduce the price of electricity production. Control can play an essential part in this context...... wind turbine control using robust MPC. In general, robust MPC problems are very computationally demanding, however we have shown that with some approximations the resulting robust MPC problem can be specialized with reduced computational complexity. After a short introduction on wind energy and wind....... This is because, on the one hand, control methods can decrease the cost of energy by keeping the turbine close to its maximum efficiency. On the other hand, they can reduce structural fatigue and therefore increase the lifetime of the wind turbine. The power produced by a wind turbine is proportional...

  11. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  12. A high-resolution global flood hazard model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Christopher C; Smith, Andrew M; Bates, Paul D; Neal, Jeffrey C; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ∼90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ∼1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ∼5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  13. Stochastic wind turbine modeling for individual pitch control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz; Niemann, Hans Henrik; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2009-01-01

    By pitching the blades of a wind turbine individually it is possible to attenuate the asymmetric loads caused by a non-uniform wind field - this is denoted individual pitch control. In this work we investigate how to set up a simplified stochastic and deterministic description of the wind...... and a simplified description of the aerodynamics with sufficient detail to design model-based individual pitch controllers. Combined with a simplified model of the wind turbine, we exemplify how to use the model elements to systematically design an individual pitch controller. The design is investigated...

  14. Wall Correction Model for Wind Tunnels with Open Test Section

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Shen, Wen Zhong; Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming

    2004-01-01

    In th paper we present a correction model for wall interference on rotors of wind turbines or propellers in wind tunnels. The model, that is based on a onedimensional momentum approach, is validated against results from CFD computations using a generalized actuator disc principle. Generally......, the corrections from the model are in very good agreement with the CFD computaions, demonstrating that one-dimensional momentum theory is a reliable way of predicting corrections for wall interference in wind tunnels with closed as well as open cross sections. Keywords: Wind tunnel correction, momentum theory...

  15. A conflict model for the international hazardous waste disposal dispute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Kaixian; Hipel, Keith W; Fang, Liping

    2009-12-15

    A multi-stage conflict model is developed to analyze international hazardous waste disposal disputes. More specifically, the ongoing toxic waste conflicts are divided into two stages consisting of the dumping prevention and dispute resolution stages. The modeling and analyses, based on the methodology of graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), are used in both stages in order to grasp the structure and implications of a given conflict from a strategic viewpoint. Furthermore, a specific case study is investigated for the Ivory Coast hazardous waste conflict. In addition to the stability analysis, sensitivity and attitude analyses are conducted to capture various strategic features of this type of complicated dispute.

  16. Automatic Attitude Setting of a Wind Tunnel Model in a Transonic Wind Tunnel

    OpenAIRE

    HAKII, Kiyoshi; KOIKE, Akira; 波木井, 潔; 小池, 陽

    1980-01-01

    A description of an improved automatic attitude setting system, of a wind tunnel model in a 2m×2m transonic wind tunnel is presented. The purpose of this improvement is to save on manpower, and shorten the access time for setting from one testing condition to another. An 8K words mini-computer is employed, to control the electirically powered mechanism of the model supporting system. The desired angle of attack and yaw of the wind tunnel model are obtained by the appropriate combination of th...

  17. The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with

  18. Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo

    2015-01-01

    High-quality tall mast and wind lidar measurements over the North and Baltic Seas are used to validate the wind climatology produced from winds simulated by the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in analysis mode. Biases in annual mean wind speed between model and observations at heights...

  19. Accurate wind farm development and operation. Advanced wake modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brand, A.; Bot, E.; Ozdemir, H. [ECN Unit Wind Energy, P.O. Box 1, NL 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Steinfeld, G.; Drueke, S.; Schmidt, M. [ForWind, Center for Wind Energy Research, Carl von Ossietzky Universitaet Oldenburg, D-26129 Oldenburg (Germany); Mittelmeier, N. REpower Systems SE, D-22297 Hamburg (Germany))

    2013-11-15

    The ability is demonstrated to calculate wind farm wakes on the basis of ambient conditions that were calculated with an atmospheric model. Specifically, comparisons are described between predicted and observed ambient conditions, and between power predictions from three wind farm wake models and power measurements, for a single and a double wake situation. The comparisons are based on performance indicators and test criteria, with the objective to determine the percentage of predictions that fall within a given range about the observed value. The Alpha Ventus site is considered, which consists of a wind farm with the same name and the met mast FINO1. Data from the 6 REpower wind turbines and the FINO1 met mast were employed. The atmospheric model WRF predicted the ambient conditions at the location and the measurement heights of the FINO1 mast. May the predictability of the wind speed and the wind direction be reasonable if sufficiently sized tolerances are employed, it is fairly impossible to predict the ambient turbulence intensity and vertical shear. Three wind farm wake models predicted the individual turbine powers: FLaP-Jensen and FLaP-Ainslie from ForWind Oldenburg, and FarmFlow from ECN. The reliabilities of the FLaP-Ainslie and the FarmFlow wind farm wake models are of equal order, and higher than FLaP-Jensen. Any difference between the predictions from these models is most clear in the double wake situation. Here FarmFlow slightly outperforms FLaP-Ainslie.

  20. Evaluating winds and vertical wind shear from Weather Research and Forecasting model forecasts using seven planetary boundary layer schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Draxl, Caroline; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    The existence of vertical wind shear in the atmosphere close to the ground requires that wind resource assessment and prediction with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models use wind forecasts at levels within the full rotor span of modern large wind turbines. The performance of NWP models...... regarding wind energy at these levels partly depends on the formulation and implementation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations in these models. This study evaluates wind speeds and vertical wind shears simulated by theWeather Research and Forecasting model using seven sets of simulations...... with different PBL parameterizations at one coastal site over western Denmark. The evaluation focuses on determining which PBL parameterization performs best for wind energy forecasting, and presenting a validation methodology that takes into account wind speed at different heights. Winds speeds at heights...

  1. Hazard identification by extended multilevel flow modelling with function roles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Jing; Zhang, Laibin; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2014-01-01

    HAZOP studies are widely accepted in chemical and petroleum industries as the method for conducting process hazard analysis related to design, maintenance and operation of th e systems. In this paper, a HAZOP reasoning method based on function-oriented modelling, multilevel flow modelling (MFM...

  2. Model of a synthetic wind speed time series generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, N.B.; Holmstrøm, O.; Bak-Jensen, B.

    2008-01-01

    Wind energy has assumed a great relevance in the operation and planning of today's power systems due to the exponential increase of installations in the last 10 years. For this reason, many performed studies have looked at suitable representations of wind generation for power system analysis. One...... of the main elements to consider for this purpose is the model of the wind speed that is usually required as input. Wind speed measurements may represent a solution for this problem, but, for techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo simulation, they have to be long enough in order to describe a wide range...... of possible wind conditions. If these information are not available, synthetic wind speed time series may be a useful tool as well, but their generator must preserve statistical and stochastic features of the phenomenon. This paper deals with this issue: a generator for synthetic wind speed time series...

  3. A Reliability Based Model for Wind Turbine Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K. Rajeevan

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A wind turbine generator output at a specific site depends on many factors, particularly cut- in, rated and cut-out wind speed parameters. Hence power output varies from turbine to turbine. The objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical relationship between reliability and wind power generation. The analytical computation of monthly wind power is obtained from weibull statistical model using cubic mean cube root of wind speed. Reliability calculation is based on failure probability analysis. There are many different types of wind turbinescommercially available in the market. From reliability point of view, to get optimum reliability in power generation, it is desirable to select a wind turbine generator which is best suited for a site. The mathematical relationship developed in this paper can be used for site-matching turbine selection in reliability point of view.

  4. Space Particle Hazard Measurement and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    rejection. The method was applied to data obtained by the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescopes (REPT) on the Van Allen Probes satellites, providing new...capabilities of current instrumentation [37]. Van Allen Probe data continued to be evaluated to remove contamination and compared to models. Evaluated...AFRL/RVBX performed substantial research and development in the areas of the AE9/AP9/SPM standard radiation belt model, energetic space particle

  5. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...... by the effective wind speed on the rotor disc. We take the wind speed as a scheduling variable. The wind speed is measurable ahead of the turbine using LIDARs, therefore, the scheduling variable is known for the entire prediction horizon. By taking the advantage of having future values of the scheduling variable...... on wind speed estimation and measurements from the LIDAR is devised to find an estimate of the delay and compensate for it before it is used in the controller. Comparisons between the MPC with error compensation, the MPC without error compensation and an MPC with re-linearization at each sample point...

  6. A Method for Modeling of Floating Vertical Axis Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Kai; Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Moan, Torgeir

    2013-01-01

    It is of interest to investigate the potential advantages of floating vertical axis wind turbine (FVAWT) due to its economical installation and maintenance. A novel 5MW vertical axis wind turbine concept with a Darrieus rotor mounted on a semi-submersible support structure is proposed in this paper....... In order to assess the technical and economic feasibility of this novel concept, a comprehensive simulation tool for modeling of the floating vertical axis wind turbine is needed. This work presents the development of a coupled method for modeling of the dynamics of a floating vertical axis wind turbine....... This integrated dynamic model takes into account the wind inflow, aerodynamics, hydrodynamics, structural dynamics (wind turbine, floating platform and the mooring lines) and a generator control. This approach calculates dynamic equilibrium at each time step and takes account of the interaction between the rotor...

  7. Evaluation of MEDALUS model for desertification hazard zonation using GIS; study area: Iyzad Khast plain, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Egbal, Mahbobeh Nik

    2007-08-15

    In this study, the MEDALUS model along with GIS mapping techniques are used to determine desertification hazards for a province of Iran to determine the desertification hazard. After creating a desertification database including 20 parameters, the first steps consisted of developing maps of four indices for the MEDALUS model including climate, soil, vegetation and land use were prepared. Since these parameters have mostly been presented for the Mediterranean region in the past, the next step included the addition of other indicators such as ground water and wind erosion. Then all of the layers weighted by environmental conditions present in the area were used (following the same MEDALUS framework) before a desertification map was prepared. The comparison of two maps based on the original and modified MEDALUS models indicates that the addition of more regionally-specific parameters into the model allows for a more accurate representation of desertification processes across the Iyzad Khast plain. The major factors affecting desertification in the area are climate, wind erosion and low land quality management, vegetation degradation and the salinization of soil and water resources.

  8. Analysis of Precipitation (Rain and Snow) Levels and Straight-line Wind Speeds in Support of the 10-year Natural Phenomena Hazards Review for Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, Elizabeth J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Deola, Regina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-10

    This report provides site-specific return level analyses for rain, snow, and straight-line wind extreme events. These analyses are in support of the 10-year review plan for the assessment of meteorological natural phenomena hazards at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses follow guidance from Department of Energy, DOE Standard, Natural Phenomena Hazards Analysis and Design Criteria for DOE Facilities (DOE-STD-1020-2012), Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800, 2007) and ANSI/ ANS-2.3-2011, Estimating Tornado, Hurricane, and Extreme Straight-Line Wind Characteristics at Nuclear Facility Sites. LANL precipitation and snow level data have been collected since 1910, although not all years are complete. In this report the results from the more recent data (1990–2014) are compared to those of past analyses and a 2004 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration report. Given the many differences in the data sets used in these different analyses, the lack of statistically significant differences in return level estimates increases confidence in the data and in the modeling and analysis approach.

  9. Are winds in cities always slower than in the countryside? Modelling the Urban Wind Island Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droste, Arjan; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan

    2017-04-01

    Though the Urban Heat Island has been extensively studied, relatively little has been documented about differences in wind between the city as a whole and the countryside. Urban winds are difficult to capture in both observations and modelling, due to the complex urban canyon and neighbourhood geometry. This study uses a straightforward mixed-layer model (Tennekes & Driedonks, 1981) to investigate the contrast between the diurnal cycle of wind in the urban and the rural environment. The model contains one urban and one rural column, to identify differences in wind patterns between city and countryside under equal geostrophic forcing. The model has been evaluated against rural observations from the 213 m. Cabauw tower (the Netherlands), and the urban observations from the BUBBLE campaign (Basel, Rotach et al., 2005). The influence of the urban fabric on the wind is investigated by varying the surface underneath the column model using the 10 urban Local Climate Zones, thereby altering building height, fraction of impervious surface, and initial boundary-layer depth. First results show that for high initial urban boundary-layer depths compared to the rural boundary-layer depth, the urban column can be much windier than its rural counterpart: i.e. the urban Wind Island Effect. The effect appears to be most prominent in the morning and the late afternoon (up to 1 m/s), for Local Climate Zones with lower buildings (3 or 7). BUBBLE observations confirm the timing of the Wind Island Effect, though with weaker magnitude.

  10. Aerodynamic models for a Darrieus wind turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraunie, P.; Beguier, C.; Paraschivoiu, I.; Delclaux, F.

    1982-11-01

    Various models proposed for the aerodynamics of Darrieus wind turbines are reviewed. The magnitude of the L/D ratio for a Darrieus rotor blade is dependent on the profile, the Re, boundary layer characteristics, and the three-dimensional flow effects. The aerodynamic efficiency is theoretically the Betz limit, and the interference of one blade with another is constrained by the drag force integrated over all points on the actuator disk. A single streamtube model can predict the power available in a Darrieus, but the model lacks definition of the flow structure and the cyclic stresses. Techniques for calculating the velocity profiles and the consequent induced velocity at the blades are presented. The multiple streamtube theory has been devised to account for the repartition of the velocity in the rotor interior. The model has been expanded as the double multiple streamtube theory at Sandia Laboratories. Futher work is necessary, however, to include the effects of dynamic decoupling at high rotation speeds and to accurately describe blade behavior.

  11. Wind farm density and harvested power in very large wind farms: A low-order model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortina, G.; Sharma, V.; Calaf, M.

    2017-07-01

    In this work we create new understanding of wind turbine wakes recovery process as a function of wind farm density using large-eddy simulations of an atmospheric boundary layer diurnal cycle. Simulations are forced with a constant geostrophic wind and a time varying surface temperature extracted from a selected period of the Cooperative Atmospheric Surface Exchange Study field experiment. Wind turbines are represented using the actuator disk model with rotation and yaw alignment. A control volume analysis around each turbine has been used to evaluate wind turbine wake recovery and corresponding harvested power. Results confirm the existence of two dominant recovery mechanisms, advection and flux of mean kinetic energy, which are modulated by the background thermal stratification. For the low-density arrangements advection dominates, while for the highly loaded wind farms the mean kinetic energy recovers through fluxes of mean kinetic energy. For those cases in between, a smooth balance of both mechanisms exists. From the results, a low-order model for the wind farms' harvested power as a function of thermal stratification and wind farm density has been developed, which has the potential to be used as an order-of-magnitude assessment tool.

  12. Elements of extreme wind modeling for hurricanes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans; Kelly, Mark C.

    The report summarizes characteristics of the winds associated with Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons). It has been conducted by the authors across several years, from 2012-2015, to identify the processes and aspects that one should consider when building at useful computer support system...... for evaluation hurricane extreme wind conditions for a given offshore site. It was initiated by a grant from DNV that has as well been represented by one of the authors in this report. Finally, we wish to emphasize the debt of this report to an earlier work at the DTU-Wind Energy Department on “Extreme winds...

  13. A Reduced Wind Power Grid Model for Research and Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akhmatov, Vladislav; Lund, Torsten; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2007-01-01

    A reduced grid model of a transmission system with a number of central power plants, consumption centers, local wind turbines and a large offshore wind farm is developed and implemented in the simulation tool PowerFactory (DIgSILENT). The reduced grid model is given by Energinet.dk, Transmission...

  14. Modelling and measurements of wakes in large wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Rathmann, Ole; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents research conducted in the Flow workpackage of the EU funded UPWIND project which focuses on improving models of flow within and downwind of large wind farms in complex terrain and offshore. The main activity is modelling the behaviour of wind turbine wakes in order to improve p...

  15. Fuga - a fast flow model for offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ott, Søren

    2014-01-01

    The Fuga is a fast, yet surprisingly accurate tool that estimates wake losses in offshore wind farms. The Fuga model will be made commercially available in 2014.......The Fuga is a fast, yet surprisingly accurate tool that estimates wake losses in offshore wind farms. The Fuga model will be made commercially available in 2014....

  16. A noise generation and propagation model for large wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertagnolio, Franck

    2016-01-01

    A wind turbine noise calculation model is combined with a ray tracing method in order to estimate wind farm noise in its surrounding assuming an arbitrary topography. The wind turbine noise model is used to generate noise spectra for which each turbine is approximated as a point source. However......, the detailed three-dimensional directivity features are taken into account for the further calculation of noise propagation over the surrounding terrain. An arbitrary number of turbines constituting a wind farm can be spatially distributed. The noise from each individual turbine is propagated into the far...

  17. Experimental studies on power transformer model winding provided with MOVs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Kusumadevi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Surge voltage distribution across a HV transformer winding due to appearance of very fast rise time (rise time of order 1 μs transient voltages is highly non-uniform along the length of the winding for initial time instant of occurrence of surge. In order to achieve nearly uniform initial time instant voltage distribution along the length of the HV winding, investigations have been carried out on transformer model winding. By connecting similar type of metal oxide varistors across sections of HV transformer model winding, it is possible to improve initial time instant surge voltage distribution across length of the HV transformer winding. Transformer windings with α values 5.3, 9.5 and 19 have been analyzed. The experimental studies have been carried out using high speed oscilloscope of good accuracy. The initial time instant voltage distribution across sections of winding with MOV remains nearly uniform along length of the winding. Also results of fault diagnostics carried out with and without connection of MOVs across sections of winding are reported.

  18. TsuPy: Computational robustness in Tsunami hazard modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Andreas M.; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2017-05-01

    Modelling wave propagation is the most essential part in assessing the risk and hazard of tsunami and storm surge events. For the computational assessment of the variability of such events, many simulations are necessary. Even today, most of these simulations are generally run on supercomputers due to the large amount of computations necessary. In this study, a simulation framework, named TsuPy, is introduced to quickly compute tsunami events on a personal computer. It uses the parallelized power of GPUs to accelerate computation. The system is tailored to the application of robust tsunami hazard and risk modelling. It links up to geophysical models to simulate event sources. The system is tested and validated using various benchmarks and real-world case studies. In addition, the robustness criterion is assessed based on a sensitivity study comparing the error impact of various model elements e.g. of topo-bathymetric resolution, knowledge of Manning friction parameters and the knowledge of the tsunami source itself. This sensitivity study is tested on inundation modelling of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, showing that the major contributor to model uncertainty is in fact the representation of earthquake slip as part of the tsunami source profile. TsuPy provides a fast and reliable tool to quickly assess ocean hazards from tsunamis and thus builds the foundation for a globally uniform hazard and risk assessment for tsunamis.

  19. Limited Area Forecasting and Statistical Modelling for Wind Energy Scheduling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg

    forecast accuracy for operational wind power scheduling. Numerical weather prediction history and scales of atmospheric motion are summarised, followed by a literature review of limited area wind speed forecasting. Hereafter, the original contribution to research on the topic is outlined. The quality...... control of wind farm data used as forecast reference is described in detail, and a preliminary limited area forecasting study illustrates the aggravation of issues related to numerical orography representation and accurate reference coordinates at ne weather model resolutions. For the o shore and coastal...... sites studied limited area forecasting is found to deteriorate wind speed prediction accuracy, while inland results exhibit a steady forecast performance increase with weather model resolution. Temporal smoothing of wind speed forecasts is shown to improve wind power forecast performance by up to almost...

  20. Scaling forecast models for wind turbulence and wind turbine power intermittency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duran Medina, Olmo; Schmitt, Francois G.; Calif, Rudy

    2017-04-01

    The intermittency of the wind turbine power remains an important issue for the massive development of this renewable energy. The energy peaks injected in the electric grid produce difficulties in the energy distribution management. Hence, a correct forecast of the wind power in the short and middle term is needed due to the high unpredictability of the intermittency phenomenon. We consider a statistical approach through the analysis and characterization of stochastic fluctuations. The theoretical framework is the multifractal modelisation of wind velocity fluctuations. Here, we consider three wind turbine data where two possess a direct drive technology. Those turbines are producing energy in real exploitation conditions and allow to test our forecast models of power production at a different time horizons. Two forecast models were developed based on two physical principles observed in the wind and the power time series: the scaling properties on the one hand and the intermittency in the wind power increments on the other. The first tool is related to the intermittency through a multifractal lognormal fit of the power fluctuations. The second tool is based on an analogy of the power scaling properties with a fractional brownian motion. Indeed, an inner long-term memory is found in both time series. Both models show encouraging results since a correct tendency of the signal is respected over different time scales. Those tools are first steps to a search of efficient forecasting approaches for grid adaptation facing the wind energy fluctuations.

  1. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca D.; Iov, Florin; Sørensen, Poul

    This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risø-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database...... built-op and developed during several national research projects, carried out at Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy and Aalborg University, in the period 2001-2007. The overall objective of these projects was to create a wind turbine model database able to support the analysis...... of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built...

  2. Perceived Risk and Response to the Wind Turbine Ice Throw Hazard: Comparing Community Stakeholders and Operations and Maintenance Personnel in Two Regions of Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Greg

    Risk managers who work directly with wind energy know that accumulations of ice on wind turbine blades pose a substantial risk to wind farm employees and a lesser extent to the general public. However, overall, the hazards of ice throw are not generally known to the public, as there has not been a significant event in the U.S. which has drawn any media attention. As we continue to install more and more turbines, the number of people exposed greatly increases, and it is only a matter of time before the industry suffers a severe incident or even a fatality. Thus, the goals of this research were threefold: 1) to understand the extent to which two at-risk groups--community stakeholders as well as operations and maintenance personnel at wind farms might differ in their perceived levels of risk to the ice throw hazard; 2) to understand the degree to which community stakeholders and operations and maintenance might differ on choosing measures of protection for their affected areas; and 3) to improve safety by identifying protective measures that all stakeholders--community citizens, wind farm employees, contractors, and land owners--are willing to undertake to mitigate their risk against the ice throw hazard which includes adopting measures to reduce their own risk toward the hazard, as well as, their community's vulnerability toward the hazards and threat of ice throw from wind turbines. This research also makes a valuable contribution to the theoretical body of risk research with respect to a technological hazard for which little is known. This research found that the two groups differed on statistically significant variables for observed risk, perceived personal risk, risk to the community, levels of trust in safety leaders, best protective actions, and preferred warning systems; however, there was no statistical significance between the groups on perceived benefits of wind energy.

  3. Review of methods for modelling forest fire risk and hazard

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    need to identify a method or combination of methods to help model forest fire risk and hazard to enable the sustainability of the natural resources. ..... fire behaviour through variations in the amount of solar radiation andwind thatdifferentaspects ... drying both the soil and the vegetation. Slope. Slope is an extremely important ...

  4. The additive hazards model with high-dimensional regressors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers estimation and prediction in the Aalen additive hazards model in the case where the covariate vector is high-dimensional such as gene expression measurements. Some form of dimension reduction of the covariate space is needed to obtain useful statistical analyses. We study...

  5. Toward Building a New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z.

    2015-12-01

    At present, the only publicly available seismic hazard model for mainland China was generated by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program in 1999. We are building a new seismic hazard model by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data using the methodology recommended by Global Earthquake Model (GEM), and derive a strain rate map based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones based on seismotectonics. For each zone, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) relationship to model the seismicity rates. We estimate the TGR a- and b-values from the historical earthquake data, and constrain corner magnitude using the seismic moment rate derived from the strain rate. From the TGR distributions, 10,000 to 100,000 years of synthetic earthquakes are simulated. Then, we distribute small and medium earthquakes according to locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes. Some large earthquakes are distributed on active faults based on characteristics of the faults, including slip rate, fault length and width, and paleoseismic data, and the rest to the background based on the distributions of historical earthquakes and strain rate. We evaluate available ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) by comparison to observed ground motions. To apply appropriate GMPEs, we divide the region into active and stable tectonics. The seismic hazard will be calculated using the OpenQuake software developed by GEM. To account for site amplifications, we construct a site condition map based on geology maps. The resulting new seismic hazard map can be used for seismic risk analysis and management, and business and land-use planning.

  6. MODELING OF THE BUILDING LOCAL PROTECTION (SHELTER – IN PLACE INCLUDING SORBTION OF THE HAZARDOUS CONTAMINANT ON INDOOR SURFACES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Belyayev

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Chemically hazardous objects, where toxic substances are used, manufactured and stored, and also main lines, on which the hazardous materials transportation is conducted, pose potential sources of atmosphere accidental pollution.Development of the CFD model for evaluating the efficiency of the building local protection from hazardous substantives ingress by using air curtain and sorption/desorption of hazardous substance on indoor surfaces. Methodology. To solve the problem of hydrodynamic interaction of the air curtain with wind flow and considering the building influence on this process the model of ideal fluid is used. In order to calculate the transfer process of the hazardous substance in the atmosphere an equation of convection-diffusion transport of impurities is applied. To calculate the process of indoors air pollution under leaking of foul air Karisson & Huber model is used. This model takes into account the sorption of the hazardous substance at various indoors surfaces. For the numerical integration of the model equations differential methods are used. Findings. In this paper we construct an efficient CFD model of evaluating the effectiveness of the buildings protection against ingress of hazardous substances through the use of an air curtain. On the basis of the built model a computational experiment to assess the effectiveness of this protection method under varying the location of the air curtain relative to the building was carried out. Originality. A new model was developed to compute the effectiveness of the air curtain supply to reduce the toxic chemical concentration inside the building. Practical value. The developed model can be used for design of the building local protection against ingress of hazardous substances.

  7. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...... provides a description of the wind turbine modelling, both at a component level and at a system level....

  8. A Multidirectional Wind Erosion Model for Western Saxony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; de Figueiredo, Tomás; Alewell, Christine

    2016-04-01

    Wind erosion can trigger a non-visible loss of fine soil up to 40 t ha-1 per single event and is as such a major soil threat and environmental concern in areas susceptible to wind erosion. Western Saxony was assessed to be among the most susceptible landscapes not only within Germany but even within Europe (Borelli et al., 2015; Borelli et al., 2014). Moreover, wind erosion events in eastern Germany cause very severe off-site effects with impacts on road traffic. So far the wind erosion model that is normally applied in Germany is based on the norm DIN standard 19706. The DIN standard 19706 was revised by new controlling factors and fuzzy logic to consider the multi-directionality of wind and make it more realistic to wind erosion processes. The new factors are based on different datasets like (i) wind and temperature data (1hr resolution) for 9 gauging stations and interpolated long-term wind speed (1981-2000, 200m resolution) provided by the German Weather Service, (ii) soil erodibility extracted from the digital soil map 1:50,000, (iii) landscape components from different data sources (ATKIS, OpenStreetMap and others), and (iv) a DEM (20m resolution) for local orographic modeling. For a risky sub-region, local wind speeds and directions were modelled based on the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Programs (WAsP) orography-model to assess road bodies for priority actions. Major improvements of the proposed model are the consideration of changing wind directions and the implementation of factors on soil cover and field length. An estimation of the long-term spatiotemporal variability under changing climate is possible with the model conception. The revised model assesses 3.6% of western Saxonies agricultural fields under very high risk to wind erosion. Larger fields (greater than 116 ha) are connected to a higher frequency (51.7%) of very high risk. Only a small proportion (5.2%) of the high risk class was found in small fields (smaller than 21 ha). Fields under

  9. Wind Speed Estimation and Wake model Re-calibration for Downregulated Offshore Wind Farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göçmen Bozkurt, Tuhfe; Giebel, Gregor; Kjølstad Poulsen, Niels; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Mirzaei, Mahmood

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, the wind farm sizes have increased tremendously and with increasing installed capacity, the wind farms are requested to downregulate from their maximum possible power more frequently, especially in the offshore environment. Determination of the possible (or available) power is crucial not only because the reserve power has considerable market value but also for wind farm developers to be properly compensated for the loss during downregulation. While the available power calculation is straightforward for a single turbine, it gets rather complicated for the whole wind farm due to the change in the wake characteristics. In fact, the wake losses generated by the upstream turbine(s) decrease during downregulation and the downstream turbines therefore see more wind compared to the normal operation case. Currently, the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) have no real way to determine exactly the available power of a whole wind farm which is downregulated. Therefore, the PossPOW project aims to develop a verified and internationally accepted way to determine the possible power of a down-regulated offshore wind farm. The first phase of the project is to estimate the rotor effective wind speed. Since the nacelle anemometers are not readily available and are known to have reliability issues, the proposed method is to use power, pitch angle and rotational speed as inputs and combine it with a generic Cp model to estimate the wind speed. The performance of the model has been evaluated for both normal operation and downregulation periods using two different case studies: Horns Rev-I wind farm and NREL 5MW single turbine. During downregulation, the wake losses are not as severe and the velocity deficits at the downstream turbines are smaller as if also the wake is "downregulated". On the other hand, in order to calculate the available power, the wakes that would have been produced normally (if the turbines were not curtailed) are of importance, not the

  10. INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

    KAUST Repository

    Elkantassi, Soumaya

    2017-10-03

    Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

  11. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling; Ott, Søren; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly......, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included...... in the model deliverables....

  12. Damage Analysis and Evaluation of Light Steel Structures Exposed to Wind Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Yang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Compared to hot-rolled steel structures, cold-formed steel structures are susceptible to extreme winds because of the light weight of the building and its components. Many modern cold-formed steel structures have sustained significant structural damage ranging from loss of cladding to complete collapse in recent cyclones. This article first provides some real damage cases for light steel structures induced by the high winds. After that, the paper reviews research on the damage analysis and evaluation of light steel structures caused by strong winds, which include connection failure, fatigue failure, purlin buckling, and primary frame component instability problems. Moreover, this review will mention some applications of structure damage assessment methods in this area, such as vulnerability analysis and performance-based theory, etc.

  13. Computational Modelling of Materials for Wind Turbine Blades: Selected DTU Wind Energy Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Pilgaard Mikkelsen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Computational and analytical studies of degradation of wind turbine blade materials at the macro-, micro-, and nanoscale carried out by the modelling team of the Section Composites and Materials Mechanics, Department of Wind Energy, DTU, are reviewed. Examples of the analysis of the microstructural effects on the strength and fatigue life of composites are shown. Computational studies of degradation mechanisms of wind blade composites under tensile and compressive loading are presented. The effect of hybrid and nanoengineered structures on the performance of the composite was studied in computational experiments as well.

  14. Computational Modelling of Materials for Wind Turbine Blades: Selected DTU Wind Energy Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard; Mishnaevsky, Leon

    2017-11-08

    Computational and analytical studies of degradation of wind turbine blade materials at the macro-, micro-, and nanoscale carried out by the modelling team of the Section Composites and Materials Mechanics, Department of Wind Energy, DTU, are reviewed. Examples of the analysis of the microstructural effects on the strength and fatigue life of composites are shown. Computational studies of degradation mechanisms of wind blade composites under tensile and compressive loading are presented. The effect of hybrid and nanoengineered structures on the performance of the composite was studied in computational experiments as well.

  15. Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reiss, Martin A.; Temmer, Manuela; Veronig, Astrid M.

    2016-01-01

    High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluat...... score, TS ≈ 0.37). The predicted high-speed streams show typical uncertainties in the arrival time of about 1 day and uncertainties in the speed of about 100 km/s. General advantages and disadvantages of the investigated solar wind models are diagnosed and outlined.......High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate...... high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ plasma measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the years 2011 to 2014. While the ESWF makes use of an empirical relation...

  16. A control-oriented dynamic wind farm flow model : "WFSim"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boersma, S.; Gebraad, P.M.O.; Vali, M.; Doekemeijer, B.M.; van Wingerden, J.W.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present and extend the dynamic medium fidelity control-oriented Wind Farm Simulator (WFSim) model. WFSim resolves flow fields in wind farms in a horizontal, two dimensional plane. It is based on the spatially and temporally discretised two dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and

  17. Magnetosonic Waveguide Model of Solar Wind Flow Tubes A. K. ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. We consider solar wind flow tubes as a magnetosonic wave- guide. Assuming a symmetric expansion in edges of slab-modelled wave- guide, we study the propagation characteristics of magnetosonic wave in the solar wind flow tubes. We present the preliminary results and discuss their implications. Key words.

  18. Wind Power Curve Modeling in Simple and Complex Terrain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulaevskaya, V. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Wharton, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Irons, Z. [Enel Green Power North America, Andover, MA (United States); Qualley, G. [Pentalum, Colleyville, TX (United States)

    2015-02-09

    Our previous work on wind power curve modeling using statistical models focused on a location with a moderately complex terrain in the Altamont Pass region in northern California (CA). The work described here is the follow-up to that work, but at a location with a simple terrain in northern Oklahoma (OK). The goal of the present analysis was to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding information beyond the hub-height wind speed, such as wind speeds at other heights, as well as other atmospheric variables, to the power prediction model at this new location and compare the results to those obtained at the CA site in the previous study. While we reach some of the same conclusions at both sites, many results reported for the CA site do not hold at the OK site. In particular, using the entire vertical profile of wind speeds improves the accuracy of wind power prediction relative to using the hub-height wind speed alone at both sites. However, in contrast to the CA site, the rotor equivalent wind speed (REWS) performs almost as well as the entire profile at the OK site. Another difference is that at the CA site, adding wind veer as a predictor significantly improved the power prediction accuracy. The same was true for that site when air density was added to the model separately instead of using the standard air density adjustment. At the OK site, these additional variables result in no significant benefit for the prediction accuracy.

  19. Modelling of a chaotic load of wind turbines drivetrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielecki, Andrzej; Barszcz, Tomasz; Wójcik, Mateusz

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a model of the load of the wind turbine gears for simulation of real, varying operational conditions for modelling of wind turbine vibration. The characteristics of the wind, which generates chaotically varying loads on the drivetrain components generating load in teeth and bearings of gears during torque transfer, are discussed. A generator of variable load of wind turbines drivetrain is proposed. Firstly, the module for generation of wind speed is designed. It is based on the approach in which the wind speed was considered as a time series approximated by the Weierstrass function. Secondly, the rotational speed of the main shaft is proposed as a function of the wind speed value. The function depends on a few parameters that are fitted by using a genetic algorithm. Finally, the model of torque of the main shaft is introduced. This model has been created by using a multi-layer artificial neural network. The results show that the proposed approach yields a very good fit for the experimental data. The fit brings about the proper reproducing of all the aspects of the load that are crucial for causing fatigue and, as a consequence, damaging of gears of the wind turbines.

  20. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...

  1. Interval forecasts of a novelty hybrid model for wind speeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Qin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The utilization of wind energy, as a booming technology in the field of renewable energies, has been highly regarded around the world. Quantification of uncertainties associated with accurate wind speed forecasts is essential for regulating wind power generation and integration. However, it remains difficult work primarily due to the stochastic and nonlinear characteristics of wind speed series. Traditional models for wind speed forecasting mostly focus on generating certain predictive values, which cannot properly handle uncertainties. For quantifying potential uncertainties, a hybrid model constructed by the Cuckoo Search Optimization (CSO-based Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN is proposed to establish wind speed interval forecasts (IFs by estimating the lower and upper bounds. The quality of IFs is assessed quantitatively using IFs coverage probability (IFCP and IFs normalized average width (IFNAW. Moreover, to assess the overall quality of IFs comprehensively, a tradeoff between informativeness (IFNAW and validity (IFCP of IFs is examined by coverage width-based criteria (CWC. As an applicative study, wind speeds from the Xinjiang Region in China are used to validate the proposed hybrid model. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can construct higher quality IFs for short-term wind speed forecasts.

  2. Modelling and control of large wind turbine

    OpenAIRE

    zafar, syed hammad

    2013-01-01

    In order to make the wind energy an economical alternative for energy production, upscaling of turbine to 10 - 15MW may be necessary to reduce the overall cost of energy production. This production target requires a considerable increase in the turbine size and placing the turbines at high wind speed locations. But increase in turbine size also increases the uneven load distribution across the turbine structure. Therefore an efficient load reduction technique is necessary to increase the turb...

  3. Evaluation of the wind direction uncertainty and its impact on wake modeling at the Horns Rev offshore wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaumond, M.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Ott, Søren

    2014-01-01

    Accurately quantifying wind turbine wakes is a key aspect of wind farm economics in large wind farms. This paper introduces a new simulation post-processing method to address the wind direction uncertainty present in the measurements of the Horns Rev offshore wind farm. This new technique replaces...... the traditional simulations performed with the 10 min average wind direction by a weighted average of several simulations covering a wide span of directions. The weights are based on a normal distribution to account for the uncertainty from the yaw misalignment of the reference turbine, the spatial variability...... of the wind direction inside the wind farm and the variability of the wind direction within the averaging period. The results show that the technique corrects the predictions of the models when the simulations and data are averaged over narrow wind direction sectors. In addition, the agreement of the shape...

  4. An assessment of wind forcing impact on a spectral wave model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The focus of the present study is the assessment of the impact of wind forcing on the spectral wave model. MIKE 21 SW in the Indian Ocean region. Three different wind fields, namely the ECMWF analyzed winds, the ECMWF blended winds, and the NCEP blended winds have been used to drive the model. The wave model ...

  5. An assessment of wind forcing impact on a spectral wave model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The focus of the present study is the assessment of the impact of wind forcing on the spectral wave model MIKE 21 SW in the Indian Ocean region. Three different wind fields, namely the ECMWF analyzed winds, the ECMWF blended winds, and the NCEP blended winds have been used to drive the model. The wave model ...

  6. Wind Tunnel Experiments with Active Control of Bridge Section Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henriette I.; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    This paper describes results of wind tunnel experiments with a bridge section model where movable flaps are integrated in the bridge girder so each flap is the streamlined part of the edge of the girder. This active control flap system is patented by COWIconsult and may be used to increase...... the flutter wind velocity for future ultra-long span suspension bridges. The purpose of the wind tunnel experiments is to investigate the principle to use this active flap control system. The bridge section model used in the experiments is therefore not a model of a specific bridge but it is realistic...

  7. Model based active power control of a wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2014-01-01

    in the electricity market that selling the reserve power is more profitable than producing with the full capacity. Therefore wind turbines can be down-regulated and sell the differential capacity as the reserve power. In this paper we suggest a model based approach to control wind turbines for active power reference...... tracking. We use model predictive control (MPC) as our control method. We compare three different control strategies, namely Max-Ω, Constant-Ω and Constant-λ and discuss their drawbacks and benefits by presenting analysis of the steady state operating points and simulations on a high fidelity wind turbine...... model....

  8. Atmospheric boundary layer wind profile at a flat coastal site – wind speed lidar measurements and mesoscale modeling results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floors, Rogier; Batchvarova, Ekaterina; Gryning, Sven-Erik

    2011-01-01

    Wind profiles up to 600m height are investigated. Measurements of mean wind speed profiles were obtained from a novel wind lidar and compared to model simulations from a mesoscale model (WRFARW v3.1). It is found that WRF is able to predict the mean wind profile rather well and typically within 1......–2ms−1 to the individual measured values. WRF underpredicts the normalized wind profile, especially for stable conditions. The effect of baroclinicity on the upper part of the wind profile is discussed....

  9. Finding conservatism in theoretical noise models for wind power projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drew, Teresa; Wierzba, Paul [RWDI Air, Inc (Canada)], email: teresa.drew@rwdi.com, email: paul.wierzba@rwdi.com

    2011-07-01

    Wind power projects have been scrutinized for their noise impact by public opinion, developers, and regulating bodies. Computer modelling is used to predict such noise impact, and is often run with conservative parameters, taken from the ISO 9613 standard, relative to the noise impact of industrial wind turbines. This paper examines the influence of the various modelling software parameters on wind power project noise impact results. This analysis leads to identification of parameters that can lend a measure of conservatism to future predictions by focusing primarily on software configuration and acoustic attenuation options, crucial points in determining realistic noise impact. Changes in the parameters of a hypothetical wind turbine influence the final noise predictions, and sensitivity to these changes is examined, to establish initial realistic assumptions with regard to localization and height of wind turbines.

  10. Current Methods of Natural Hazards Communication used within Catastrophe Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawber, C.; Latchman, S.

    2012-04-01

    In the field of catastrophe modelling, natural hazards need to be explained every day to (re)insurance professionals so that they may understand estimates of the loss potential of their portfolio. The effective communication of natural hazards to city professionals requires different strategies to be taken depending on the audience, their prior knowledge and respective backgrounds. It is best to have at least three sets of tools in your arsenal for a specific topic, 1) an illustration/animation, 2) a mathematical formula and 3) a real world case study example. This multi-faceted approach will be effective for those that learn best by pictorial means, mathematical means or anecdotal means. To show this we will use a set of real examples employed in the insurance industry of how different aspects of natural hazards and the uncertainty around them are explained to city professionals. For example, explaining the different modules within a catastrophe model such as the hazard, vulnerability and loss modules. We highlight how recent technology such as 3d plots, video recording and Google Earth maps, when used properly can help explain concepts quickly and easily. Finally we also examine the pitfalls of using overly-complicated visualisations and in general how counter-intuitive deductions may be made.

  11. PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WIND, AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, D.; (NOEMAIL), A.; Shine, G.

    2013-12-04

    Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities - tornadoes, straight winds, and heavy precipitation - are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 1998 by Weber, et al., are given. Using tornado statistics for the states of Georgia and South Carolina, we calculated the probability per year of any location within a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 1.15E-3 (1 chance in 870) per year and wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years, 125,000 years, and 1E+7 years (USDOE, 2012) were estimated to be 136 mph, 151 mph and 221 mph, respectively. In 1998 the strike probability for SRS was estimated to be 3.53 E-4 and the return period wind speeds were 148 mph every 50,000 years and 180 mph every 125,000 years. A 1E+7 year tornado wind speed was not calculated in 1998; however a 3E+6 year wind speed was 260 mph. The lower wind speeds resulting from this most recent analysis are largely due to new data since 1998, and to a lesser degree differences in the models used. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years, 173 mph every 125,000 years, and 230 mph every 1E+7 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS model and the SRS models are very similar, the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a Gumbel

  12. Model predictive control of wind energy conversion systems

    CERN Document Server

    Yaramasu, Venkata Narasimha R

    2017-01-01

    The authors provide a comprehensive analysis on the model predictive control of power converters employed in a wide variety of variable-speed wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The contents of this book includes an overview of wind energy system configurations, power converters for variable-speed WECS, digital control techniques, MPC, modeling of power converters and wind generators for MPC design. Other topics include the mapping of continuous-time models to discrete-time models by various exact, approximate, and quasi-exact discretization methods, modeling and control of wind turbine grid-side two-level and multilevel voltage source converters. The authors also focus on the MPC of several power converter configurations for full variable-speed permanent magnet synchronous generator based WECS, squirrel-cage induction generator based WECS, and semi-variable-speed doubly fed induction generator based WECS.

  13. Wall correction model for wind tunnels with open test section

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Shen, Wen Zhong; Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming

    2006-01-01

    In the paper we present a correction model for wall interference on rotors of wind turbines or propellers in wind tunnels. The model, which is based on a one-dimensional momentum approach, is validated against results from CFD computations using a generalized actuator disc principle. In the model...... the exchange of axial momentum between the tunnel and the ambient room is represented by a simple formula, derived from actuator disc computations. The correction model is validated against Navier-Stokes computations of the flow about a wind turbine rotor. Generally, the corrections from the model are in very...... good agreement with the CFD computations, demonstrating that one-dimensional momentum theory is a reliable way of predicting corrections for wall interference in wind tunnels with closed as well as open cross sections....

  14. Wind-Climate Estimation Based on Mesoscale and Microscale Modeling: Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling for Wind Energy Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Frank, Helmut; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2014-01-01

    turbine site. The method is divided into two parts: 1) preprocessing, in which the configurations for the mesoscale model simulations are determined, and 2) postprocessing, in which the data from the mesoscale simulations are prepared for wind energy application. Results from idealized mesoscale modeling......This paper demonstrates that a statistical dynamical method can be used to accurately estimate the wind climate at a wind farm site. In particular, postprocessing of mesoscale model output allows an efficient calculation of the local wind climate required for wind resource estimation at a wind...... experiments for a challenging wind farm site in northern Spain are presented to support the preprocessing method. Comparisons of modeling results with measurements from the same wind farm site are presented to support the postprocessing method. The crucial element in postprocessing is the bridging...

  15. Indexed semi-Markov process for wind speed modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.; Prattico, F.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing interest in renewable energy leads scientific research to find a better way to recover most of the available energy. Particularly, the maximum energy recoverable from wind is equal to 59.3% of that available (Betz law) at a specific pitch angle and when the ratio between the wind speed in output and in input is equal to 1/3. The pitch angle is the angle formed between the airfoil of the blade of the wind turbine and the wind direction. Old turbine and a lot of that actually marketed, in fact, have always the same invariant geometry of the airfoil. This causes that wind turbines will work with an efficiency that is lower than 59.3%. New generation wind turbines, instead, have a system to variate the pitch angle by rotating the blades. This system able the wind turbines to recover, at different wind speed, always the maximum energy, working in Betz limit at different speed ratios. A powerful system control of the pitch angle allows the wind turbine to recover better the energy in transient regime. A good stochastic model for wind speed is then needed to help both the optimization of turbine design and to assist the system control to predict the value of the wind speed to positioning the blades quickly and correctly. The possibility to have synthetic data of wind speed is a powerful instrument to assist designer to verify the structures of the wind turbines or to estimate the energy recoverable from a specific site. To generate synthetic data, Markov chains of first or higher order are often used [1,2,3]. In particular in [1] is presented a comparison between a first-order Markov chain and a second-order Markov chain. A similar work, but only for the first-order Markov chain, is conduced by [2], presenting the probability transition matrix and comparing the energy spectral density and autocorrelation of real and synthetic wind speed data. A tentative to modeling and to join speed and direction of wind is presented in [3], by using two models, first

  16. Mixture probability distribution functions to model wind speed distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kollu, Ravindra; Rayapudi, Srinivasa Rao; Pakkurthi, Krishna Mohan [J.N.T. Univ., Kakinada (India). Dept. of Electrical and Electronics Engineering; Narasimham, S.V.L. [J.N.T. Univ., Andhra Pradesh (India). Computer Science and Engineering Dept.

    2012-11-01

    Accurate wind speed modeling is critical in estimating wind energy potential for harnessing wind power effectively. The quality of wind speed assessment depends on the capability of chosen probability density function (PDF) to describe the measured wind speed frequency distribution. The objective of this study is to describe (model) wind speed characteristics using three mixture probability density functions Weibull-extreme value distribution (GEV), Weibull-lognormal, and GEV-lognormal which were not tried before. Statistical parameters such as maximum error in the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, root mean square error, Chi-square error, coefficient of determination, and power density error are considered as judgment criteria to assess the fitness of the probability density functions. Results indicate that Weibull- GEV PDF is able to describe unimodal as well as bimodal wind distributions accurately whereas GEV-lognormal PDF is able to describe familiar bell-shaped unimodal distribution well. Results show that mixture probability functions are better alternatives to conventional Weibull, two-component mixture Weibull, gamma, and lognormal PDFs to describe wind speed characteristics. (orig.)

  17. A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    Accurate wind speed simulation is an essential prerequisite to analyze the power systems with wind power. A wind speed model considering meteorological conditions and seasonal variations is proposed in this paper. Firstly, using the path analysis method, the influence weights of meteorological...... in capturing the characteristics of probability distribution, auto-correlation and seasonal variations of wind speed compared with the traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Furthermore, the proposed model was applied to adequacy assessment of generation...... systems with wind power. The assessment results of the modified IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 demonstrated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model....

  18. Engineering models for merging wakes in wind farm optimization applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machefaux, Ewan; Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo

    2015-01-01

    The present paper deals with validation of 4 different engineering wake superposition approaches against detailed CFD simulations and covering different turbine interspacing, ambient turbulence intensities and mean wind speeds. The first engineering model is a simple linear superposition of wake ...

  19. Wind-wave modelling aspects within complicate topography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Christopoulos

    Full Text Available Wave forecasting aspects for basins with complicate geomorphology, such as the Aegean Sea, are investigated through an intercomparison study. The efficiency of the available wind models (ECMWF, UKMO to reproduce wind patterns over special basins, as well as three wave models incorporating different physics and characteristics (WAM, AUT, WACCAS, are tested for selected storm cases representing the typical wind situations over the basin. From the wave results, discussed in terms of time-series and statistical parameters, the crucial role is pointed out of the wind resolution and the reliability of the different wave models to estimate the wave climate in such a basin. The necessary grid resolution is also tested, while for a specific test case (December 1991 ERS-1 satellite data are compared with those of the model.

  20. Wind power electric systems modeling, simulation and control

    CERN Document Server

    Rekioua, Djamila

    2014-01-01

    The book helps readers understand key concepts in standalone and grid connected wind energy systems and features analysis into the modeling and optimization of commonly used configurations through the implementation of different control strategies.Utilizing several electrical machinery control approaches, such as vector control and direct torque control 'Wind Power Electric Systems' equips readers with the means to understand, assess and develop their own wind energy systems and to evaluate the performance of such systems.Mathematical models are provided for each system and a corresponding MAT

  1. Penalized estimation for proportional hazards models with current status data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Minggen; Li, Chin-Shang

    2017-12-30

    We provide a simple and practical, yet flexible, penalized estimation method for a Cox proportional hazards model with current status data. We approximate the baseline cumulative hazard function by monotone B-splines and use a hybrid approach based on the Fisher-scoring algorithm and the isotonic regression to compute the penalized estimates. We show that the penalized estimator of the nonparametric component achieves the optimal rate of convergence under some smooth conditions and that the estimators of the regression parameters are asymptotically normal and efficient. Moreover, a simple variance estimation method is considered for inference on the regression parameters. We perform 2 extensive Monte Carlo studies to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the penalized approach and compare it with the 3 competing R packages: C1.coxph, intcox, and ICsurv. A goodness-of-fit test and model diagnostics are also discussed. The methodology is illustrated with 2 real applications. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. NASA wind shear model: Summary of model analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proctor, Fred

    1988-01-01

    A summary of an analysis of a wind shear model is presented in the form of vugraphs. Information is given on the Terminal Area Simulation System, two dimensional axisymmetric simulations, precipitation, ambient temperature and humidity profiles over Denver, and the structure of microbursts. It was concluded that the intensity of microbursts depends upon the environment temperature and humidity profile, the diameter of the microburst downdraft, the type of precipitation and the precipitation rate. The depth of the outflow layer depends primarily upon the diameter of the downdraft. Dry microbursts are more likely to be produced by precipitation initially falling as snow.

  3. Modeling and Identification of Harmonic Instability Problems In Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

    2016-01-01

    to identify harmonic instability problems in wind farms, where many wind turbines, cables, transformers, capacitor banks, shunt reactors, etc, typically are located. This methodology introduces the wind farm as a Multi-Input Multi-Outpur (MIMO) control system, where the linearized models of fast inner control...... loops of the grid-side converters are considered. Therefore, instability problems of the whole wind farm are predicted based on the poles of the introduced MIMO system. In order to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed analytical approach, time-domain simulations are performed in the PSCAD......In power electronics based power systems like wind farms, the interactions between the inner control systems of the power converters and the passive components may lead to high frequency oscillations, which can be called harmonic instability. In this paper, a simple methodology is presented...

  4. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Torcasio

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013 three-model ensemble (TME experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council – Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC, are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System, BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model, and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates. The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System. Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  5. Simulation platform to model, optimize and design wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iov, F.; Hansen, A.D.; Soerensen, P.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2004-03-01

    This report is a general overview of the results obtained in the project 'Electrical Design and Control. Simulation Platform to Model, Optimize and Design Wind Turbines'. The motivation for this research project is the ever-increasing wind energy penetration into the power network. Therefore, the project has the main goal to create a model database in different simulation tools for a system optimization of the wind turbine systems. Using this model database a simultaneous optimization of the aerodynamic, mechanical, electrical and control systems over the whole range of wind speeds and grid characteristics can be achieved. The report is structured in six chapters. First, the background of this project and the main goals as well as the structure of the simulation platform is given. The main topologies for wind turbines, which have been taken into account during the project, are briefly presented. Then, the considered simulation tools namely: HAWC, DIgSILENT, Saber and Matlab/Simulink have been used in this simulation platform are described. The focus here is on the modelling and simulation time scale aspects. The abilities of these tools are complementary and they can together cover all the modelling aspects of the wind turbines e.g. mechanical loads, power quality, switching, control and grid faults. However, other simulation packages e.g PSCAD/EMTDC can easily be added in the simulation platform. New models and new control algorithms for wind turbine systems have been developed and tested in these tools. All these models are collected in dedicated libraries in Matlab/Simulink as well as in Saber. Some simulation results from the considered tools are presented for MW wind turbines. These simulation results focuses on fixed-speed and variable speed/pitch wind turbines. A good agreement with the real behaviour of these systems is obtained for each simulation tool. These models can easily be extended to model different kinds of wind turbines or large wind

  6. Defaultable Game Options in a Hazard Process Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz R. Bielecki

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The valuation and hedging of defaultable game options is studied in a hazard process model of credit risk. A convenient pricing formula with respect to a reference filteration is derived. A connection of arbitrage prices with a suitable notion of hedging is obtained. The main result shows that the arbitrage prices are the minimal superhedging prices with sigma martingale cost under a risk neutral measure.

  7. Regularization Paths for Cox's Proportional Hazards Model via Coordinate Descent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noah Simon

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a pathwise algorithm for the Cox proportional hazards model, regularized by convex combinations of l1 and l2 penalties (elastic net. Our algorithm fits via cyclical coordinate descent, and employs warm starts to find a solution along a regularization path. We demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithm on real and simulated data sets, and find considerable speedup between our algorithm and competing methods.

  8. Demonstration of the Ability of RCAS to Model Wind Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonkman, J.; Cotrell, J.

    2003-08-01

    In recent years, the wind industry has sponsored the development, verification, and validation of comprehensive aeroelastic simulators, which are used for wind turbine design, certification, and research. Unfortunately, as wind turbines continue to grow in size and sometimes exhibit unconventional design characteristics, the existing codes do not always support the additional analysis features required for proper design. The development history, functionality, and advanced nature of RCAS (Rotorcraft Comprehensive Analysis System) make this code a sensible option. RCAS is an aeroelastic simulator developed over a 4-year cooperative effort amongst the U.S. Army's Aeroflightdynamics Directorate, Advanced Rotorcraft Technology (ART), Inc., and the helicopter industry. As its name suggests, RCAS was created for the rotorcraft industry but developed as a general purpose code for modeling the aerodynamic and structural response of any system with rotating and nonrotating subsystems (such as wind turbines). To demonstrate that RCAS can analyze wind turbines, models of a conventional, 1.5-MW, 3-bladed, upwind, horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) are created in RCAS and wind turbine analysis codes FAST (Fatigue, Aerodynamics, Structures, and Turbulence) and ADAMS (Automatic Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems). Using these models, a side-by-side comparison of structural response predictions is performed under several test scenarios.

  9. Estimation of wind energy potential using finite mixture distribution models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akpinar, Sinan [Physics Department, Firat University, 23279 Elazig (Turkey); Akpinar, Ebru Kavak [Mechanical Engineering Department, Firat University, 23279 Elazig (Turkey)

    2009-04-15

    In this paper has been investigated an analysis of wind characteristics of four stations (Elazig, Elazig-Maden, Elazig-Keban, and Elazig-Agin) over a period of 8 years (1998-2005). The probabilistic distributions of wind speed are a critical piece of information needed in the assessment of wind energy potential, and have been conventionally described by various empirical correlations. Among the empirical correlations, there are the Weibull distribution and the Maximum Entropy Principle. These wind speed distributions can not accurately represent all wind regimes observed in that region. However, this study represents a theoretical approach of wind speed frequency distributions observed in that region through applications of a Singly Truncated from below Normal Weibull mixture distribution and a two component mixture Weibull distribution and offer less relative errors in determining the annual mean wind power density. The parameters of the distributions are estimated using the least squares method and Statistica software. The suitability of the distributions is judged from the probability plot correlation coefficient plot R{sup 2}, RMSE and {chi}{sup 2}. Based on the results obtained, we conclude that the two mixture distributions proposed here provide very flexible models for wind speed studies. (author)

  10. Models for wind turbines - a collection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2002-01-01

    This report is a collection of notes which were intended to be short communications. Main target of the work presented is to supply new approaches to stability investigations of wind turbines. The author's opinion is that an efficient, systematicstability analysis can not be performed for large...

  11. Selection of References in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Lowering the cost of energy is one of the major focus areas in the wind turbine industry. Recent research has indicated that wind turbine controllers based on model predictive control methods can be useful in obtaining this objective. A number of design considerations have to be made when designing...... a model predictive controller for a wind turbine. One of the important aspects for a tracking control problem is how to setup the optimal reference tracking problem, as it might be relevant to track, e.g., the three concurrent references: optimal pitch angle, optimal rotational speed, and optimal power....... The importance if the individual references differ depending in particular on the wind speed. In this paper we investigate the performance of a reference tracking model predictive controller with two different setups of the used optimal reference signals. The controllers are evaluated using an industrial high...

  12. Wind Turbine Noise and Natural Sounds: Masking, Propagation and Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolin, Karl

    2009-05-15

    Wind turbines are an environmentally friendly and sustainable power source. Unfortunately, the noise impact can cause deteriorated living conditions for nearby residents. The audibility of wind turbine sound is influenced by ambient sound. This thesis deals with some aspects of noise from wind turbines. Ambient sounds influence the audibility of wind turbine noise. Models for assessing two commonly occurring natural ambient sounds namely vegetation sound and sound from breaking waves are presented in paper A and B. A sound propagation algorithm has been compared to long range measurements of sound propagation in paper C. Psycho-acoustic tests evaluating the threshold and partial loudness of wind turbine noise when mixed with natural ambient sounds have been performed. These are accounted for in paper D. The main scientific contributions are the following.Paper A: A semi-empiric prediction model for vegetation sound is proposed. This model uses up-to-date simulations of wind profiles and turbulent wind fields to estimate sound from vegetation. The fluctuations due to turbulence are satisfactory estimated by the model. Predictions of vegetation sound also show good agreement to measured spectra. Paper B: A set of measurements of air-borne sound from breaking waves are reported. From these measurements a prediction method of sound from breaking waves is proposed. Third octave spectra from breaking waves are shown to depend on breaker type. Satisfactory agreement between predictions and measurements has been achieved. Paper C: Long range sound propagation over a sea surface was investigated. Measurements of sound transmission were coordinated with local meteorological measurements. A sound propagation algorithm has been compared to the measured sound transmission. Satisfactory agreement between measurements and predictions were achieved when turbulence were taken into consideration in the computations. Paper D: The paper investigates the interaction between wind

  13. Modelling and measurements of power losses and turbulence intensity in wind turbine wakes at Middelgrunden offshore wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Frandsen, Sten Tronæs; Nielsen, Niels Morten

    2007-01-01

    Understanding of power losses and turbulence increase due to wind turbine wake interactions in large offshore wind forms is crucial to optimizing wind farm design. Power losses and turbulence increase due to wakes are quantified based on observations from Middel-grunden and state-of-the-art models....... Observed power losses due solely to wakes are approximately 10% on average. These are relatively high for a single line of wind turbines due in part to the close spacing of the wind farm. The wind form model Wind Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) is shown to capture wake losses despite operating...... beyond its specifications for turbine spacing. The paper describes two methods of estimating turbulence intensity. one based on the mean and standard deviation (SD) of wind speed from the nacelle anemometer, the other from mean power output and its SD. Observations from the nacelle anemometer indicate...

  14. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

  15. Global Partial Likelihood for Nonparametric Proportional Hazards Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kani; Guo, Shaojun; Sun, Liuquan; Wang, Jane-Ling

    2010-01-01

    As an alternative to the local partial likelihood method of Tibshirani and Hastie and Fan, Gijbels, and King, a global partial likelihood method is proposed to estimate the covariate effect in a nonparametric proportional hazards model, λ(t|x) = exp{ψ(x)}λ(0)(t). The estimator, ψ̂(x), reduces to the Cox partial likelihood estimator if the covariate is discrete. The estimator is shown to be consistent and semiparametrically efficient for linear functionals of ψ(x). Moreover, Breslow-type estimation of the cumulative baseline hazard function, using the proposed estimator ψ̂(x), is proved to be efficient. The asymptotic bias and variance are derived under regularity conditions. Computation of the estimator involves an iterative but simple algorithm. Extensive simulation studies provide evidence supporting the theory. The method is illustrated with the Stanford heart transplant data set. The proposed global approach is also extended to a partially linear proportional hazards model and found to provide efficient estimation of the slope parameter. This article has the supplementary materials online.

  16. Short-Term Wind Speed Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bias Correcting Study and Its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Mingfei Niu; Shaolong Sun; Jie Wu; Yuanlei Zhang

    2015-01-01

    The accuracy of wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. In particular, reliable short-term wind speed forecasting can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed, the forecasting of wind speed data using different patterns is difficult. This paper proposes a novel combination bias c...

  17. COMPARISON of FUZZY-BASED MODELS in LANDSLIDE HAZARD MAPPING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mijani

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Landslide is one of the main geomorphic processes which effects on the development of prospect in mountainous areas and causes disastrous accidents. Landslide is an event which has different uncertain criteria such as altitude, slope, aspect, land use, vegetation density, precipitation, distance from the river and distance from the road network. This research aims to compare and evaluate different fuzzy-based models including Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP, Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR. The main contribution of this paper reveals to the comprehensive criteria causing landslide hazard considering their uncertainties and comparison of different fuzzy-based models. The quantify of evaluation process are calculated by Density Ratio (DR and Quality Sum (QS. The proposed methodology implemented in Sari, one of the city of Iran which has faced multiple landslide accidents in recent years due to the particular environmental conditions. The achieved results of accuracy assessment based on the quantifier strated that Fuzzy-AHP model has higher accuracy compared to other two models in landslide hazard zonation. Accuracy of zoning obtained from Fuzzy-AHP model is respectively 0.92 and 0.45 based on method Precision (P and QS indicators. Based on obtained landslide hazard maps, Fuzzy-AHP, Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR respectively cover 13, 26 and 35 percent of the study area with a very high risk level. Based on these findings, fuzzy-AHP model has been selected as the most appropriate method of zoning landslide in the city of Sari and the Fuzzy-gamma method with a minor difference is in the second order.

  18. Comparison of Fuzzy-Based Models in Landslide Hazard Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mijani, N.; Neysani Samani, N.

    2017-09-01

    Landslide is one of the main geomorphic processes which effects on the development of prospect in mountainous areas and causes disastrous accidents. Landslide is an event which has different uncertain criteria such as altitude, slope, aspect, land use, vegetation density, precipitation, distance from the river and distance from the road network. This research aims to compare and evaluate different fuzzy-based models including Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP), Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR. The main contribution of this paper reveals to the comprehensive criteria causing landslide hazard considering their uncertainties and comparison of different fuzzy-based models. The quantify of evaluation process are calculated by Density Ratio (DR) and Quality Sum (QS). The proposed methodology implemented in Sari, one of the city of Iran which has faced multiple landslide accidents in recent years due to the particular environmental conditions. The achieved results of accuracy assessment based on the quantifier strated that Fuzzy-AHP model has higher accuracy compared to other two models in landslide hazard zonation. Accuracy of zoning obtained from Fuzzy-AHP model is respectively 0.92 and 0.45 based on method Precision (P) and QS indicators. Based on obtained landslide hazard maps, Fuzzy-AHP, Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR respectively cover 13, 26 and 35 percent of the study area with a very high risk level. Based on these findings, fuzzy-AHP model has been selected as the most appropriate method of zoning landslide in the city of Sari and the Fuzzy-gamma method with a minor difference is in the second order.

  19. Empirical Bayes estimation for additive hazards regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Debajyoti; McHenry, M Brent; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Ghosh, Malay

    2009-09-01

    We develop a novel empirical Bayesian framework for the semiparametric additive hazards regression model. The integrated likelihood, obtained by integration over the unknown prior of the nonparametric baseline cumulative hazard, can be maximized using standard statistical software. Unlike the corresponding full Bayes method, our empirical Bayes estimators of regression parameters, survival curves and their corresponding standard errors have easily computed closed-form expressions and require no elicitation of hyperparameters of the prior. The method guarantees a monotone estimator of the survival function and accommodates time-varying regression coefficients and covariates. To facilitate frequentist-type inference based on large-sample approximation, we present the asymptotic properties of the semiparametric empirical Bayes estimates. We illustrate the implementation and advantages of our methodology with a reanalysis of a survival dataset and a simulation study.

  20. Online identification of wind model for improving quadcopter trajectory monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniak, Ryszard; Gudzenko, Oleksandr

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we consider a problem of quadcopter control in severe weather conditions. One type of such weather conditions is a strong variable wind. In this paper, we ponder deterministic and stochastic models of winds at low altitudes with the quadcopter performing aggressive maneuvers. We choose an adaptive algorithm as our control algorithm. This algorithm might seem suitable one to solve the given problem, as it is able to adjust quickly to changing conditions. However, as shown in the paper, this algorithm is not applicable to rapidly changing winds and requires additional filters to smooth the impulse streams, so as not to lose the stability of the object.

  1. Experimental and numerical modeling of wind flow over complex topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, Ashkan

    Wind mapping is of utmost importance in various wind engineering, wind environment, and wind energy applications. The available wind atlases usually provide wind data with low resolutions relative to the wind turbine height and size and usually neglect the effect of topographic features with relatively large or sudden changes in elevation. Developing a cost effective methodology to predict the wind patterns and to obtain wind maps over any topographic terrain is absolutely needed for wind turbine/farm siting. As the previous analytic and empirical attempts to resolve the flow over topographic features were limited to basic geometries that hardly exist in nature, applying Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurement techniques in wind tunnel and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques in numerical simulation of the flow over topography seems to be the best alternative solution to the problem. PIV measurements and CFD simulations are carried out on a 1:3000 scale model of complex topographic area. Three distinct topographic features are investigated: a valley, a ridge and a hill. The PIV measurements compare well with hot-wire based mean velocity profiles for the three cases. Moreover, the turbulence intensity profiles match well for flow regions without recirculation. The ridge wake region shows discrepancies between the two techniques which are attributed to the complexity of the flow in this region and limitations of both techniques. A procedure incorporating Geographic Information System (GIS) and surface modeling techniques is introduced to build the CFD model of a complex terrain starting from the existing topography maps with desired resolutions. Moreover, a new approach is made to simulate the terrain roughness up to ultimate roughness heights, by implementing arrays of bell-shaped roughness elements in the CFD model. The velocity profiles and velocity vectors were compared with the PIV measurements and were found to be in good agreement near the ground

  2. Development of hazard-compatible building fragility and vulnerability models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaca, E.; Luco, N.

    2008-01-01

    We present a methodology for transforming the structural and non-structural fragility functions in HAZUS into a format that is compatible with conventional seismic hazard analysis information. The methodology makes use of the building capacity (or pushover) curves and related building parameters provided in HAZUS. Instead of the capacity spectrum method applied in HAZUS, building response is estimated by inelastic response history analysis of corresponding single-degree-of-freedom systems under a large number of earthquake records. Statistics of the building response are used with the damage state definitions from HAZUS to derive fragility models conditioned on spectral acceleration values. Using the developed fragility models for structural and nonstructural building components, with corresponding damage state loss ratios from HAZUS, we also derive building vulnerability models relating spectral acceleration to repair costs. Whereas in HAZUS the structural and nonstructural damage states are treated as if they are independent, our vulnerability models are derived assuming "complete" nonstructural damage whenever the structural damage state is complete. We show the effects of considering this dependence on the final vulnerability models. The use of spectral acceleration (at selected vibration periods) as the ground motion intensity parameter, coupled with the careful treatment of uncertainty, makes the new fragility and vulnerability models compatible with conventional seismic hazard curves and hence useful for extensions to probabilistic damage and loss assessment.

  3. Modeling Broadband X-Ray Absorption of Massive Star Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leutenegger, Maurice A.; Cohen,David H.; Zsargo, Janos; Martell, Erin M.; MacArthur, James P.; Owocki, Stanley P.; Gagne, Marc; Hillier, D. John

    2010-01-01

    We present a method for computing the net transition of X-rays emitted by shock-heated plasma distributed throughout a partially optically thick stellar wind from a massive star. We find the transmission by an exact integration of the formal solution, assuming the emitting plasma and absorbing plasma are mixed at a constant mass ratio above some minimum radius, below which there is assumed to be no emission. This model is more realistic than either the slab absorption associated with a corona at the base of the wind or the exospheric approximation that assumes all observed X-rays are emitted without attenuation from above the radius of optical depth unity. Our model is implemented in XSPEC as a pre-calculated table that can be coupled to a user-defined table of the wavelength dependent wind opacity. We provide a default wind opacity model that is more representative of real wind opacities than the commonly used neutral ISM tabulation. Preliminary modeling of Chandra grating data indicates that the X-ray hardness trend of OB stars with spectral subtype cars largely be understood as a wind absorption effect.

  4. Impacts of Wake Effect and Time Delay on the Dynamic Analysis of Wind Farms Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Fouly, Tarek H. M.; El-Saadany, Ehab F.; Salama, Magdy M. A.

    2008-01-01

    This article investigates the impacts of proper modeling of the wake effects and wind speed delays, between different wind turbines' rows, on the dynamic performance accuracy of the wind farms models. Three different modeling scenarios were compared to highlight the impacts of wake effects and wind speed time-delay models. In the first scenario,…

  5. A Numerical Model for a Floating TLP Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kumari Ramachandran, Gireesh Kumar Vasanta

    A numerical model is developed for a TLP configuration of a floating offshore wind turbine. The platform dynamics and hydrodynamic forces are derived and implemented in an advanced aero-elastic code, Flex5, to compute the hydro-aero-servo-elastic loads and responses on the floater and the wind...... turbine. This is achieved through three steps. In the first step, an independent 2D code with fourteen degrees of freedom (DOFs) is developed and the responses are verified for load cases concerning steady and spatially coherent turbulent wind with regular and irregular waves. In the second step, the 2D...... irregular waves. In addition, the effect of wind-wave misalignment is investigated. Further, in the third step, the 3D platform dynamics and wave loading are implemented into Flex5, resulting in a fully coupled hydro-aero-servo-elastic code. The implementation is tested to make the model reliable and robust...

  6. A refined QSAR model for prediction of chemical asthma hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, J; Seed, M J; Stocks, S J; Agius, R M

    2015-11-01

    A previously developed quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model has been extern ally validated as a good predictor of chemical asthma hazard (sensitivity: 79-86%, specificity: 93-99%). To develop and validate a second version of this model. Learning dataset asthmagenic chemicals with molecular weight (MW) chemicals for which no reported case(s) of occupational asthma had been identified were selected at random from UK and US occupational exposure limit tables. MW banding was used in an attempt to categorically match the control group for MW distribution of the asthmagens. About 10% of chemicals in each MW category were excluded for use as an external validation set. An independent researcher utilized a logistic regression approach to compare the molecular descriptors present in asthmagens and controls. The resulting equation generated a hazard index (HI), with a value between zero and one, as an estimate of the probability that the chemical had asthmagenic potential. The HI was determined for each compound in the external validation set. The model development sets comprised 99 chemical asthmagens and 204 controls. The external validation showed that using a cut-point HI of 0.39, 9/10 asthmagenic (sensitivity: 90%) and 23/24 non-asthmagenic (specificity: 96%) compounds were correctly predicted. The new QSAR model showed a better receiver operating characteristic plot than the original. QSAR refinement by iteration has resulted in an improved model for the prediction of chemical asthma hazard. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Infinite Ergodic Index of the Ehrenfest Wind-Tree Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Málaga Sabogal, Alba; Troubetzkoy, Serge Eugene

    2017-12-01

    The set of all possible configurations of the Ehrenfest wind-tree model endowed with the Hausdorff topology is a compact metric space. For a typical configuration we show that the wind-tree dynamics has infinite ergodic index in almost every direction. In particular some ergodic theorems can be applied to show that if we start with a large number of initially parallel particles their directions decorrelate as the dynamics evolve, answering the question posed by the Ehrenfests.

  8. Multivariate Modelling of Extreme Load Combinations for Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2015-01-01

    We demonstrate a model for estimating the joint probability distribution of two load components acting on a wind turbine blade cross section. The model addresses the problem of modelling the probability distribution of load time histories with large periodic components by dividing the signal...

  9. Nonlinear Eddy Viscosity Models applied to Wind Turbine Wakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laan, van der, Paul Maarten; Sørensen, Niels N.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan

    2013-01-01

    The linear k−ε eddy viscosity model and modified versions of two existing nonlinear eddy viscosity models are applied to single wind turbine wake simulations using a Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes code. Results are compared with field wake measurements. The nonlinear models give better results...

  10. Evaluation of RCAS Inflow Models for Wind Turbine Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tangler, J.; Bir, G.

    2004-02-01

    The finite element structural modeling in the Rotorcraft Comprehensive Analysis System (RCAS) provides a state-of-the-art approach to aeroelastic analysis. This, coupled with its ability to model all turbine components, results in a methodology that can simulate complex system interactions characteristic of large wind. In addition, RCAS is uniquely capable of modeling advanced control algorithms and the resulting dynamic responses.

  11. An aerodynamic noise propagation model for wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Wei Jun; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Shen, Wen Zhong

    2005-01-01

    A model based on 2-D sound ray theory for aerodynamic noise propagation from wind turbine rotating blades is introduced. The model includes attenuation factors from geometric spreading, sound directivity of source, air absorption, ground deflection and reflection, as well as effects from temperat......A model based on 2-D sound ray theory for aerodynamic noise propagation from wind turbine rotating blades is introduced. The model includes attenuation factors from geometric spreading, sound directivity of source, air absorption, ground deflection and reflection, as well as effects from...

  12. Modelling of wind power plant controller, wind speed time series, aggregation and sample results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca Daniela; Altin, Müfit; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    This report describes the modelling of a wind power plant (WPP) including its controller. Several ancillary services like inertial response (IR), power oscillation damping (POD) and synchronising power (SP) are implemented. The focus in this document is on the performance of the WPP output...

  13. Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Barbosa de Alencar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Generation of electric energy through wind turbines is one of the practically inexhaustible alternatives of generation. It is considered a source of clean energy, but still needs a lot of research for the development of science and technologies that ensures uniformity in generation, providing a greater participation of this source in the energy matrix, since the wind presents abrupt variations in speed, density and other important variables. In wind-based electrical systems, it is essential to predict at least one day in advance the future values of wind behavior, in order to evaluate the availability of energy for the next period, which is relevant information in the dispatch of the generating units and in the control of the electrical system. This paper develops ultra-short, short, medium and long-term prediction models of wind speed, based on computational intelligence techniques, using artificial neural network models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and hybrid models including forecasting using wavelets. For the application of the methodology, the meteorological variables of the database of the national organization system of environmental data (SONDA, Petrolina station, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2017, were used. A comparison among results by different used approaches is also done and it is also predicted the possibility of power and energy generation using a certain kind of wind generator.

  14. GIS and RS-based modelling of potential natural hazard areas in Pehchevo municipality, Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milevski Ivica

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, one approach of Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS assessment of potential natural hazard areas (excess erosion, landslides, flash floods and fires is presented. For that purpose Pehchevo Municipality in the easternmost part of the Republic of Macedonia is selected as a case study area because of high local impact of natural hazards on the environment, social-demographic situation and local economy. First of all, most relevant static factors for each type of natural hazard are selected (topography, land cover, anthropogenic objects and infrastructure. With GIS and satellite imagery, multi-layer calculation is performed based on available traditional equations, clustering or discreditation procedures. In such way suitable relatively “static” natural hazard maps (models are produced. Then, dynamic (mostly climate related factors are included in previous models resulting in appropriate scenarios correlated with different amounts of precipitation, temperature, wind direction etc. Finally, GIS based scenarios are evaluated and tested with field check or very fine resolution Google Earth imagery showing good accuracy. Further development of such GIS models in connection with automatic remote meteorological stations and dynamic satellite imagery (like MODIS will provide on-time warning for coming natural hazard avoiding potential damages or even causalities.

  15. Overload prevention in model supports for wind tunnel model testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton IVANOVICI

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Preventing overloads in wind tunnel model supports is crucial to the integrity of the tested system. Results can only be interpreted as valid if the model support, conventionally called a sting remains sufficiently rigid during testing. Modeling and preliminary calculation can only give an estimate of the sting’s behavior under known forces and moments but sometimes unpredictable, aerodynamically caused model behavior can cause large transient overloads that cannot be taken into account at the sting design phase. To ensure model integrity and data validity an analog fast protection circuit was designed and tested. A post-factum analysis was carried out to optimize the overload detection and a short discussion on aeroelastic phenomena is included to show why such a detector has to be very fast. The last refinement of the concept consists in a fast detector coupled with a slightly slower one to differentiate between transient overloads that decay in time and those that are the result of aeroelastic unwanted phenomena. The decision to stop or continue the test is therefore conservatively taken preserving data and model integrity while allowing normal startup loads and transients to manifest.

  16. Wind Tunnel Management and Resource Optimization: A Systems Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Derya, A.; Aasen, Curtis A.

    2000-01-01

    Time, money, and, personnel are becoming increasingly scarce resources within government agencies due to a reduction in funding and the desire to demonstrate responsible economic efficiency. The ability of an organization to plan and schedule resources effectively can provide the necessary leverage to improve productivity, provide continuous support to all projects, and insure flexibility in a rapidly changing environment. Without adequate internal controls the organization is forced to rely on external support, waste precious resources, and risk an inefficient response to change. Management systems must be developed and applied that strive to maximize the utility of existing resources in order to achieve the goal of "faster, cheaper, better". An area of concern within NASA Langley Research Center was the scheduling, planning, and resource management of the Wind Tunnel Enterprise operations. Nine wind tunnels make up the Enterprise. Prior to this research, these wind tunnel groups did not employ a rigorous or standardized management planning system. In addition, each wind tunnel unit operated from a position of autonomy, with little coordination of clients, resources, or project control. For operating and planning purposes, each wind tunnel operating unit must balance inputs from a variety of sources. Although each unit is managed by individual Facility Operations groups, other stakeholders influence wind tunnel operations. These groups include, for example, the various researchers and clients who use the facility, the Facility System Engineering Division (FSED) tasked with wind tunnel repair and upgrade, the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Fabrication (FAB) group which fabricates repair parts and provides test model upkeep, the NASA and LARC Strategic Plans, and unscheduled use of the facilities by important clients. Expanding these influences horizontally through nine wind tunnel operations and vertically along the NASA management structure greatly increases the

  17. New stratagies for modelling and forecasting the background solar wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Rui; Rouillard, Alexis; Brun, Sacha

    2017-04-01

    The large-scale solar wind speed distribution varies in time in response to the cyclic variations of the strength and geometry of the magnetic field of the corona. Semi-empirical predictive laws (such as in the widely-used WSA law) parametrise the asymptotic solar wind speed via simple parameters describing the geometry of the coronal magnetic field. In practice, such scaling laws require ad-hoc corrections and empirical fits to in-situ spacecraft data, and a predictive law based solely on physical principles is still missing. I will discuss improvements to this kind of laws based on the analysis of very large samples of wind acceleration profiles in open flux-tubes (both from MHD simulations and potential-field extrapolations), and show that flux-tube expansion effectively control the locations of the slow and fast wind flows (as in WSA), but that the actual asymptotic wind speeds attained - specially those of the slow wind - are also dependent on field-line inclination. I will furthermore present a new solar wind model - MULTI-VP - which takes a coronal magnetic field map as input (past data or forecast), and computes a collection of solar wind profiles (1 to 30 Rsun) spanning a region of interest of the solar atmosphere (up to a full synoptic map) at any instant desired in quasi-real time, while keeping a good description the plasma heating and cooling mechanisms. MULTI-VP provides full sets of inner boundary conditions for heliospheric propagation models (such as ENLIL; see https://stormsweb.irap.omp.eu/doku.php?id=windmaptable), bypassing the need to rely on semi-empirical approaches. I will fully discuss the predictive capabilities of the model (synthetic imagery and in-situ time series) and its suitability to real-time space-weather applications. This is work is supported by the FP7 project #606692 (HELCATS).

  18. Modeling the nonlinear effect of wind on rectilinear tidal flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruessink, B. G.; Houwman, K. T.; Grasmeijer, B. T.

    2006-10-01

    Observations of near-bed alongshore flow in 4-10 m depth at Terschelling, Netherlands, show that strong alongshore winds (≈15-20 m/s) in the flood direction reduce the tide current range and alter the tidal flow curve by bringing maximum flood flow forward in time and delaying maximum ebb flow. These nonlinear effects, which are more pronounced in shallower water, are reproduced well by a single-point model in the vertical driven by large-scale (O(km)) sea surface gradients and wind stress, using a quadratic bottom stress formulation and a time-dependent eddy viscosity derived from a k-ɛ turbulence closure model. Subsequent idealized model simulations using a (Terschelling based) M2 sea-surface gradient and wind speeds between 0 and 20 m/s show that the wind-induced modifications of the tidal flow are consistent with the interaction of the wind-induced flow with the tidal flow through the quadratic bed stress. The wind-driven flow enhances friction during the flood phase more than it reduces friction during the ebb flow, thereby increasing friction over a tidal cycle and, as a consequence, reducing the tide current range. The predicted increase in asymmetry of bed friction during flood and ebb flow with increasing wind speed also increases (decreases) the M4 (M6) amplitude, consistent with the observations. The M4/M2 amplitude ratio is predicted to be largest when the flow has just become unidirectional (that is, when the wind-driven flow equals the tidal current).

  19. Modular structure of wind turbine models in IEC 61400-27-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Andresen, Bjørn; Fortmann, Jens

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the modular structure of wind turbine models to be published in a new standard IEC 61400-27 for “Electrical simulation models for wind power generation”. The purpose of this standardization work is to define generic simulation models for wind turbines (Part 1) and wind power p...

  20. Model 0A wind turbine generator FMEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, William E.; Lalli, Vincent R.

    1989-01-01

    The results of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) conducted for the Wind Turbine Generators are presented. The FMEA was performed for the functional modes of each system, subsystem, or component. The single-point failures were eliminated for most of the systems. The blade system was the only exception. The qualitative probability of a blade separating was estimated at level D-remote. Many changes were made to the hardware as a result of this analysis. The most significant change was the addition of the safety system. Operational experience and need to improve machine availability have resulted in subsequent changes to the various systems which are also reflected in this FMEA.

  1. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  2. Modelling of a PMSG Wind Turbine with Autonomous Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Nan Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to model an autonomous control wind turbine driven permanent magnetic synchronous generator (PMSG which feeds alternating current (AC power to the utility grid. Furthermore, this research also demonstrates the effects and the efficiency of PMSG wind turbine which is integrated by autonomous controllers. In order for well autonomous control, two voltage source inverters are used to control wind turbine connecting with the grid. The generator-side inverter is used to adjust the synchronous generator as well as separating the generator from the grid when necessary. The grid-side inverter controls the power flow between the direct current (DC bus and the AC side. Both of them are oriented control by space vector pulse width modulation (PWM with back-to-back frequency inverter. Moreover, the proportional-integral (PI controller is enhanced to control both of the inverters and the pitch angle of the wind turbine. Maximum power point tracking (MPPT is integrated in generator-side inverter to track the maximum power, when wind speed changes. The simulation results in Matlab Simulink 2012b showing the model have good dynamic and static performance. The maximum power can be tracked and the generator wind turbine can be operated with high efficiency.

  3. IEA-Task 31 WAKEBENCH: Towards a protocol for wind farm flow model evaluation. Part 2: Wind farm wake models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moriarty, Patrick; Rodrigo, Javier Sanz; Gancarski, Pawel

    2014-01-01

    Researchers within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Task 31: Wakebench have created a framework for the evaluation of wind farm flow models operating at the microscale level. The framework consists of a model evaluation protocol integrated with a web-based portal for model benchmarking (www....

  4. The additive hazards model with high-dimensional regressors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers estimation and prediction in the Aalen additive hazards model in the case where the covariate vector is high-dimensional such as gene expression measurements. Some form of dimension reduction of the covariate space is needed to obtain useful statistical analyses. We study...... the partial least squares regression method. It turns out that it is naturally adapted to this setting via the so-called Krylov sequence. The resulting PLS estimator is shown to be consistent provided that the number of terms included is taken to be equal to the number of relevant components in the regression...

  5. Stochastic Optimization of Wind Turbine Power Factor Using Stochastic Model of Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Siano, Pierluigi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    . The optimization algorithm utilizes the stochastic models of wind power generation (WPG) and load demand to take into account their stochastic variation. The stochastic model of WPG is developed on the basis of a limited autoregressive integrated moving average (LARIMA) model by introducing a crosscorrelation......This paper proposes a stochastic optimization algorithm that aims to minimize the expectation of the system power losses by controlling wind turbine (WT) power factors. This objective of the optimization is subject to the probability constraints of bus voltage and line current requirements...... structure to the LARIMA model. The proposed stochastic optimization is carried out on a 69-bus distribution system. Simulation results confirm that, under various combinations of WPG and load demand, the system power losses are considerably reduced with the optimal setting of WT power factor as compared...

  6. Modelling hazardous surface hoar layers in the mountain snowpack over space and time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Simon Earl

    Surface hoar layers are a common failure layer in hazardous snow slab avalanches. Surface hoar crystals (frost) initially form on the surface of the snow, and once buried can remain a persistent weak layer for weeks or months. Avalanche forecasters have difficulty tracking the spatial distribution and mechanical properties of these layers in mountainous terrain. This thesis presents numerical models and remote sensing methods to track the distribution and properties of surface hoar layers over space and time. The formation of surface hoar was modelled with meteorological data by calculating the downward flux of water vapour from the atmospheric boundary layer. The timing of surface hoar formation and the modelled crystal size was verified at snow study sites throughout western Canada. The major surface hoar layers over several winters were predicted with fair success. Surface hoar formation was modelled over various spatial scales using meteorological data from weather forecast models. The largest surface hoar crystals formed in regions and elevation bands with clear skies, warm and humid air, cold snow surfaces, and light winds. Field surveys measured similar regional-scale patterns in surface hoar distribution. Surface hoar formation patterns on different slope aspects were observed, but were not modelled reliably. Mechanical field tests on buried surface hoar layers found layers increased in shear strength over time, but had persistent high propensity for fracture propagation. Layers with large crystals and layers overlying hard melt-freeze crusts showed greater signs of instability. Buried surface hoar layers were simulated with the snow cover model SNOWPACK and verified with avalanche observations, finding most hazardous surface hoar layers were identified with a structural stability index. Finally, the optical properties of surface hoar crystals were measured in the field with spectral instruments. Large plate-shaped crystals were less reflective at shortwave

  7. Flood hazard maps from SAR data and global hydrodynamic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giustarini, Laura; Chini, Marci; Hostache, Renaud; Matgen, Patrick; Pappenberger, Florian; Bally, Phillippe

    2015-04-01

    With flood consequences likely to amplify because of growing population and ongoing accumulation of assets in flood-prone areas, global flood hazard and risk maps are greatly needed for improving flood preparedness at large scale. At the same time, with the rapidly growing archives of SAR images of floods, there is a high potential of making use of these images for global and regional flood management. In this framework, an original method is presented to integrate global flood inundation modeling and microwave remote sensing. It takes advantage of the combination of the time and space continuity of a global inundation model with the high spatial resolution of satellite observations. The availability of model simulations over a long time period offers the opportunity to estimate flood non-exceedance probabilities in a robust way. The probabilities can later be attributed to historical satellite observations. SAR-derived flood extent maps with their associated non-exceedance probabilities are then combined to generate flood hazard maps with a spatial resolution equal to that of the satellite images, which is most of the time higher than that of a global inundation model. The method can be applied to any area of interest in the world, provided that a sufficient number of relevant remote sensing images are available. We applied the method on the Severn River (UK) and on the Zambezi River (Mozambique), where large archives of Envisat flood images can be exploited. The global ECMWF flood inundation model is considered for computing the statistics of extreme events. A comparison with flood hazard maps estimated with in situ measured discharge is carried out. An additional analysis has been performed on the Severn River, using high resolution SAR data from the COSMO-SkyMed SAR constellation, acquired for a single flood event (one flood map per day between 27/11/2012 and 4/12/2012). The results showed that it is vital to observe the peak of the flood. However, a single

  8. Flexible hazard regression modeling for medical cost data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Arvind K; Strawderman, Robert L

    2002-03-01

    The modeling of lifetime (i.e. cumulative) medical cost data in the presence of censored follow-up is complicated by induced informative censoring, rendering standard survival analysis tools invalid. With few exceptions, recently proposed nonparametric estimators for such data do not extend easily to handle covariate information. We propose to model the hazard function for lifetime cost endpoints using an adaptation of the HARE methodology (Kooperberg, Stone, and Truong, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1995, 90, 78-94). Linear splines and their tensor products are used to adaptively build a model that incorporates covariates and covariate-by-cost interactions without restrictive parametric assumptions. The informative censoring problem is handled using inverse probability of censoring weighted estimating equations. The proposed method is illustrated using simulation and also with data on the cost of dialysis for patients with end-stage renal disease.

  9. Short-Circuit Modeling of a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, E.; Gevorgian, V.

    2011-03-01

    This paper investigates the short-circuit behavior of a WPP for different types of wind turbines. The short-circuit behavior will be presented. Both the simplified models and detailed models are used in the simulations and both symmetrical faults and unsymmetrical faults are discussed.

  10. Comparison of aerodynamic models for Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simao Ferreira, C.J.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Barone, M.; Roscher, B.; Deglaire, P.; Arduin, I.

    2014-01-01

    Multi-megawatt Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs) are experiencing an increased interest for floating offshore applications. However, VAWT development is hindered by the lack of fast, accurate and validated simulation models. This work compares six different numerical models for VAWTS: a multiple

  11. Modeling of Exterior Rotor Permanent Magnet Machines with Concentrated Windings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vu Xuan, H.

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis modeling, analysis, design and measurement of exterior rotor permanent magnet (PM) machines with concentrated windings are dealt with. Special attention is paid to slotting effect. The PM machine is integrated in flywheel and used for small-scale ship application. Analytical model and

  12. Response of an ocean general circulation model to wind and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The stretched-coordinate ocean general circulation model has been designed to study the observed variability due to wind and thermodynamic forcings. The model domain extends from 60°N to 60°S and cyclically continuous in the longitudinal direction. The horizontal resolution is 5° × 5° and 9 discrete vertical levels.

  13. Robust Model Predictive Control of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2012-01-01

    and first principle modeling of the turbine flexible structure. Thereafter the nonlinear model is linearized using Taylor series expansion around system operating points. Operating points are determined by effective wind speed and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is employed to estimate this. In addition...

  14. Comparison of aerodynamic models for Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferreira, C. Simão; Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Barone, M.

    2014-01-01

    Multi-megawatt Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs) are experiencing an increased interest for floating offshore applications. However, VAWT development is hindered by the lack of fast, accurate and validated simulation models. This work compares six different numerical models for VAWTS: a multipl...

  15. Conceptual models of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Marshall, D.P.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2013-01-01

    Conceptual models are a vital tool for understanding the processes that maintain the global ocean circulation, both in nature and in complex numerical ocean models. In this chapter we provide a broad overview of our conceptual understanding of the wind-driven circulation, the thermohaline

  16. MATHEW: a mass-consistent wind field model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherman, C.S.

    1978-05-01

    MATHEW, a regional three-dimensional time-independent wind field model, utilizes a variational analysis technique to determine a three-component non-divergent velocity field which can be used to provide the advection velocities in atmospheric pollutant transport and diffusion models. The regions of interest have horizontal distances of 10 to 200 km and extend less than 2 km above topography.

  17. Introducing WISDEM:An Integrated System Modeling for Wind Turbines and Plant (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dykes, K.; Graf, P.; Scott, G.; Ning, A.; King, R.; Guo, Y.; Parsons, T.; Damiani, R.; Felker, F.; Veers, P.

    2015-01-01

    The National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better understanding of how to improve system-level performance and achieve system-level cost reductions. This work illustrates a few case studies with WISDEM that focus on the design and analysis of wind turbines and plants at different system levels.

  18. Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Calkin; Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex...

  19. Uncertainty in natural hazards, modeling and decision support: An introduction to this volume [Chapter 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karin Riley; Matthew Thompson; Peter Webley; Kevin D. Hyde

    2017-01-01

    Modeling has been used to characterize and map natural hazards and hazard susceptibility for decades. Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards analysis, including a limited ability to predict where and when extreme events will occur, with what consequences, and driven by what contributing factors. Modeling efforts are challenged by the intrinsic...

  20. Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Georgiadou, Paraskevi S. [Hellenic Institute for Occupational Health and Safety, Liossion 143 and Theirsiou 6, Athens 104 45 (Greece)]. E-mail: pgeor@central.ntua.gr; Papazoglou, Ioannis A. [Systems Reliability and Industrial Safety Laboratory, National Center of Scientific Research ' Demokritos' , Agia Paraskevi, Athens 153 10 (Greece)]. E-mail: yannisp@ipta.demokritos.gr; Kiranoudis, Chris T. [School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Zografou Campus, Athens 157 80 (Greece)]. E-mail: kyr@chemeng.ntua.gr; Markatos, Nikolaos C. [School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Zografou Campus, Athens 157 80 (Greece)]. E-mail: n.markatos@ntua.gr

    2007-10-15

    A model providing the temporal and spatial distribution of the population under evacuation around a major hazard facility is developed. A discrete state stochastic Markov process simulates the movement of the evacuees. The area around the hazardous facility is divided into nodes connected among themselves with links representing the road system of the area. Transition from node-to-node is simulated as a random process where the probability of transition depends on the dynamically changed states of the destination and origin nodes and on the link between them. Solution of the Markov process provides the expected distribution of the evacuees in the nodes of the area as a function of time. A Monte Carlo solution of the model provides in addition a sample of actual trajectories of the evacuees. This information coupled with an accident analysis which provides the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme phenomenon following an accident, determines a sample of the actual doses received by the evacuees. Both the average dose and the actual distribution of doses are then used as measures in evaluating alternative emergency response strategies. It is shown that in some cases the estimation of the health consequences by the average dose might be either too conservative or too non-conservative relative to the one corresponding to the distribution of the received dose and hence not a suitable measure to evaluate alternative evacuation strategies.

  1. Proportional Hazards Model with Covariate Measurement Error and Instrumental Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xiao; Wang, Ching-Yun

    2014-12-01

    In biomedical studies, covariates with measurement error may occur in survival data. Existing approaches mostly require certain replications on the error-contaminated covariates, which may not be available in the data. In this paper, we develop a simple nonparametric correction approach for estimation of the regression parameters in the proportional hazards model using a subset of the sample where instrumental variables are observed. The instrumental variables are related to the covariates through a general nonparametric model, and no distributional assumptions are placed on the error and the underlying true covariates. We further propose a novel generalized methods of moments nonparametric correction estimator to improve the efficiency over the simple correction approach. The efficiency gain can be substantial when the calibration subsample is small compared to the whole sample. The estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Performance of the estimators is evaluated via simulation studies and by an application to data from an HIV clinical trial. Estimation of the baseline hazard function is not addressed.

  2. Generic aerodynamic model for simulation of variable speed wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortmann, Jens [REpower Systems AG, Osterroenfeld (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    There is an increased international interest in electrical simulation models of wind turbines for stability analysis and interconnection studies. So-called ''generic'' models, with a model structure that is publicly available, have been required in the USA by many utilities. A working group of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) and IEEE has developed models for different types of generators, among others for wind turbines using doubly fed induction generators (DFIG) and full size converters (FSC). Those models were so far mainly used in the USA, and the models were able to represent wind turbines with respect to common US grid code requirements. Due to an increased international interest in generic models, there is a need for updating existing models in order to improve the accuracy of the models since validation requirements in many countries now require a comparison with measurements (and not to more detailed simulation models only). It can be shown that the proposed model allows for an improved representation of the aerodynamic effects during grid faults compared to existing model approaches based on cp {lambda}-tables while still requiring far less parameters. The results of simulations using the proposed generator model are compared to measurements during voltage dips of a 2MW and 6MW wind turbine. The new generic aerodynamic model will be proposed as extension for the WECC/IEEE aerodynamic models as well as basis for the draft of the IEC TC88 working group 27 (61400-27) on modelling and model validation. (orig.)

  3. Surface Winds and Dust Biases in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evan, A. T.

    2018-01-01

    An analysis of North African dust from models participating in the Fifth Climate Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggested that, when forced by observed sea surface temperatures, these models were unable to reproduce any aspects of the observed year-to-year variability in dust from North Africa. Consequently, there would be little reason to have confidence in the models' projections of changes in dust over the 21st century. However, no subsequent study has elucidated the root causes of the disagreement between CMIP5 and observed dust. Here I develop an idealized model of dust emission and then use this model to show that, over North Africa, such biases in CMIP5 models are due to errors in the surface wind fields and not due to the representation of dust emission processes. These results also suggest that because the surface wind field over North Africa is highly spatially autocorrelated, intermodel differences in the spatial structure of dust emission have little effect on the relative change in year-to-year dust emission over the continent. I use these results to show that similar biases in North African dust from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) version 2 surface wind field biases but that these wind biases were not present in the first version of MERRA.

  4. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  5. Modeling velocity space-time correlations in wind farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukassen, Laura J.; Stevens, Richard J. A. M.; Meneveau, Charles; Wilczek, Michael

    2016-11-01

    Turbulent fluctuations of wind velocities cause power-output fluctuations in wind farms. The statistics of velocity fluctuations can be described by velocity space-time correlations in the atmospheric boundary layer. In this context, it is important to derive simple physics-based models. The so-called Tennekes-Kraichnan random sweeping hypothesis states that small-scale velocity fluctuations are passively advected by large-scale velocity perturbations in a random fashion. In the present work, this hypothesis is used with an additional mean wind velocity to derive a model for the spatial and temporal decorrelation of velocities in wind farms. It turns out that in the framework of this model, space-time correlations are a convolution of the spatial correlation function with a temporal decorrelation kernel. In this presentation, first results on the comparison to large eddy simulations will be presented and the potential of the approach to characterize power output fluctuations of wind farms will be discussed. Acknowledgements: 'Fellowships for Young Energy Scientists' (YES!) of FOM, the US National Science Foundation Grant IIA 1243482, and support by the Max Planck Society.

  6. Development of CFD-based icing model for wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Marie Cecilie; Martinez, Benjamin; Yin, Chungen

    2015-01-01

    Operation of wind turbines in cold climate areas is challenged by icing-induced problems, such as loss of production, safety issues and blade fatique. Production losses are especially a big issue in Sweden, and due to difficulties with on-site measurements, simulations are often used to get...... an understanding and to predict icing events. In this paper a case study of modeling icing using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is proposed. The case study aims to form the basic of a general CFD model for icing on wind turbine blade sections....

  7. Using Bayes Model Averaging for Wind Power Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preede Revheim, Pål; Beyer, Hans Georg

    2014-05-01

    For operational purposes predictions of the forecasts of the lumped output of groups of wind farms spread over larger geographic areas will often be of interest. A naive approach is to make forecasts for each individual site and sum them up to get the group forecast. It is however well documented that a better choice is to use a model that also takes advantage of spatial smoothing effects. It might however be the case that some sites tends to more accurately reflect the total output of the region, either in general or for certain wind directions. It will then be of interest giving these a greater influence over the group forecast. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical post-processing method for producing probabilistic forecasts from ensembles. Raftery et al. [1] show how BMA can be used for statistical post processing of forecast ensembles, producing PDFs of future weather quantities. The BMA predictive PDF of a future weather quantity is a weighted average of the ensemble members' PDFs, where the weights can be interpreted as posterior probabilities and reflect the ensemble members' contribution to overall forecasting skill over a training period. In Revheim and Beyer [2] the BMA procedure used in Sloughter, Gneiting and Raftery [3] were found to produce fairly accurate PDFs for the future mean wind speed of a group of sites from the single sites wind speeds. However, when the procedure was attempted applied to wind power it resulted in either problems with the estimation of the parameters (mainly caused by longer consecutive periods of no power production) or severe underestimation (mainly caused by problems with reflecting the power curve). In this paper the problems that arose when applying BMA to wind power forecasting is met through two strategies. First, the BMA procedure is run with a combination of single site wind speeds and single site wind power production as input. This solves the problem with longer consecutive periods where the input data

  8. Evaluation protocol for the WIND system atmospheric models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fast, J.D.

    1991-12-31

    Atmospheric transport and diffusion models have been developed for real-time calculations of the location and concentration of toxic or radioactive materials during a accidental release at the Savannah River Site (SRS). These models are have been incorporated into an automated menu-driven computer based system called the WIND (Weather INformation and Display) system. In an effort to establish more formal quality assurance procedures for the WIND system atmospheric codes, a software evaluation protocol is being developed. An evaluation protocol is necessary to determine how well they may perform in emergency response (real-time) situations. The evaluation of high-impact software must be conducted in accordance with WSRC QA Manual, 1Q, QAP 20-1. This report will describe the method that will be used to evaluate the atmospheric models. The evaluation will determine the effectiveness of the atmospheric models in emergency response situations, which is not necessarily the same procedure used for research purposes. The format of the evaluation plan will provide guidance for the evaluation of atmospheric models that may be added to the WIND system in the future. The evaluation plan is designed to provide the user with information about the WIND system atmospheric models that is necessary for emergency response situations.

  9. Evaluation protocol for the WIND system atmospheric models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fast, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    Atmospheric transport and diffusion models have been developed for real-time calculations of the location and concentration of toxic or radioactive materials during a accidental release at the Savannah River Site (SRS). These models are have been incorporated into an automated menu-driven computer based system called the WIND (Weather INformation and Display) system. In an effort to establish more formal quality assurance procedures for the WIND system atmospheric codes, a software evaluation protocol is being developed. An evaluation protocol is necessary to determine how well they may perform in emergency response (real-time) situations. The evaluation of high-impact software must be conducted in accordance with WSRC QA Manual, 1Q, QAP 20-1. This report will describe the method that will be used to evaluate the atmospheric models. The evaluation will determine the effectiveness of the atmospheric models in emergency response situations, which is not necessarily the same procedure used for research purposes. The format of the evaluation plan will provide guidance for the evaluation of atmospheric models that may be added to the WIND system in the future. The evaluation plan is designed to provide the user with information about the WIND system atmospheric models that is necessary for emergency response situations.

  10. Research on wind turbine rotor models using NACA profiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vardar, Ali; Alibas, Ilknur [Department of Agricultural Machinery, Faculty of Agriculture, Uludag University, Gorukle Kampusu, 16059 Bursa (Turkey)

    2008-07-15

    In this study, rotation rates and power coefficients of miniature wind turbine rotor models manufactured using NACA profiles were investigated. For this purpose, miniature rotor models with 310 mm diameter were made from ''Balsa'' wood. When all properties of rotor models were taken into account, a total of 180 various combinations were obtained. Each combination was coded with rotor form code. These model rotors were tested in a wind tunnel measurement system. Rotation rates for each rotor form were determined based on wind speed. Power coefficient values were calculated using power and tip speed rates of wind. Rotor models produced a rotation rate up to 3077 rpm, with a power coefficient rate up to 0.425. Rotor models manufactured by using NACA 4412 profiles with 0 grade twisting angle, 5 grade blade angle, double blades had the highest rotation rate, while those manufactured by using NACA 4415 profiles with 0 grade twisting angle, 18 grade blade angle, 4 blades had the highest power coefficient. (author)

  11. Aeroservoelastic Wind-Tunnel Test of the SUGAR Truss Braced Wing Wind-Tunnel Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Robert C.; Allen, Timothy J.; Funk, Christie J.; Castelluccio, Mark A.; Sexton, Bradley W.; Claggett, Scott; Dykman, John; Coulson, David A.; Bartels, Robert E.

    2015-01-01

    The Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research (SUGAR) Truss-Braced Wing (TBW) aeroservoelastic (ASE) wind-tunnel test was conducted in the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) and was completed in April, 2014. The primary goals of the test were to identify the open-loop flutter boundary and then demonstrate flutter suppression. A secondary goal was to demonstrate gust load alleviation (GLA). Open-loop flutter and limit cycle oscillation onset boundaries were identified for a range of Mach numbers and various angles of attack. Two sets of control laws were designed for the model and both sets of control laws were successful in suppressing flutter. Control laws optimized for GLA were not designed; however, the flutter suppression control laws were assessed using the TDT Airstream Oscillation System. This paper describes the experimental apparatus, procedures, and results of the TBW wind-tunnel test. Acquired system ID data used to generate ASE models is also discussed.2 study.

  12. Self-Consistent and Time-Dependent Solar Wind Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, K. K.; Musielak, Z. E.; Rosner, R.; Suess, S. T.; Sulkanen, M. E.

    1997-01-01

    We describe the first results from a self-consistent study of Alfven waves for the time-dependent, single-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solar wind equations, using a modified version of the ZEUS MHD code. The wind models we examine are radially symmetrical and magnetized; the initial outflow is described by the standard Parker wind solution. Our study focuses on the effects of Alfven waves on the outflow and is based on solving the full set of the ideal nonlinear MHD equations. In contrast to previous studies, no assumptions regarding wave linearity, wave damping, and wave-flow interaction are made; thus, the models naturally account for the back-reaction of the wind on the waves, as well as for the nonlinear interaction between different types of MHD waves. Our results clearly demonstrate when momentum deposition by Alfven waves in the solar wind can be sufficient to explain the origin of fast streams in solar coronal holes; we discuss the range of wave amplitudes required to obtained such fast stream solutions.

  13. Sustainable business models for wind and solar energy in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nichifor Maria Alexandra

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy has become a crucial element for the business environment as the need for new energy resources and the degree of climate change are increasing. As developed economies strive towards greater progress, sustainable business models are of the essence in order to maintain a balance between the triple bottom line: people, planet and profit. In recent years, European Union countries have installed important capacities of renewable energy, especially wind and solar energy to achieve this purpose. The objective of this article is to make a comparative study between the current sustainable business models implemented in companies that are active in the wind and solar energy sector in Romania. Both sectors underwent tremendous changes in the last two years due to changing support schemes which have had a significant influence on the mechanism of the renewable energy market, as well as on its development. Using the classical Delphi method, based on questionnaires and interviews with experts in the fields of wind and solar energy, this paper offers an overview of the sustainable business models of wind and solar energy companies, both sectors opting for the alternative of selling electricity to trading companies as a main source of revenue until 2013 and as the main future trend until 2020. Furthermore, the participating wind energy companies noted a pessimistic outlook of future investments due to legal instability that made them to reduce their projects in comparison to PV investments, which are expected to continue. The subject of the article is of interest to scientific literature because sustainable business models in wind and photovoltaic energy have been scarcely researched in previous articles and are essential in understanding the activity of the companies in these two fields of renewable energy.

  14. VHub - Cyberinfrastructure for volcano eruption and hazards modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, G. A.; Jones, M. D.; Bursik, M. I.; Calder, E. S.; Gallo, S. M.; Connor, C.; Carn, S. A.; Rose, W. I.; Moore-Russo, D. A.; Renschler, C. S.; Pitman, B.; Sheridan, M. F.

    2009-12-01

    Volcanic risk is increasing as populations grow in active volcanic regions, and as national economies become increasingly intertwined. In addition to their significance to risk, volcanic eruption processes form a class of multiphase fluid dynamics with rich physics on many length and time scales. Risk significance, physics complexity, and the coupling of models to complex dynamic spatial datasets all demand the development of advanced computational techniques and interdisciplinary approaches to understand and forecast eruption dynamics. Innovative cyberinfrastructure is needed to enable global collaboration and novel scientific creativity, while simultaneously enabling computational thinking in real-world risk mitigation decisions - an environment where quality control, documentation, and traceability are key factors. Supported by NSF, we are developing a virtual organization, referred to as VHub, to address this need. Overarching goals of the VHub project are: Dissemination. Make advanced modeling and simulation capabilities and key data sets readily available to researchers, students, and practitioners around the world. Collaboration. Provide a mechanism for participants not only to be users but also co-developers of modeling capabilities, and contributors of experimental and observational data sets for use in modeling and simulation, in a collaborative environment that reaches far beyond local work groups. Comparison. Facilitate comparison between different models in order to provide the practitioners with guidance for choosing the "right" model, depending upon the intended use, and provide a platform for multi-model analysis of specific problems and incorporation into probabilistic assessments. Application. Greatly accelerate access and application of a wide range of modeling tools and related data sets to agencies around the world that are charged with hazard planning, mitigation, and response. Education. Provide resources that will promote the training of the

  15. Model-based control of a ballast-stabilized floating wind turbine exposed to wind and waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christiansen, Soeren

    2013-01-15

    The wind turbine is a commercial product which is competing against other sources of energy, such as coal and gas. This competition drives a constant development to reduce costs and improve efficiency in order to reduce the total cost of the energy. The latest offshore development is the floating wind turbine, for water depths beyond 50 meters where winds are stronger and less turbulent. A floating wind turbine is subject to not only aerodynamics and wind induced loads, but also to hydrodynamics and wave induced loads. In contrast to a bottom fixed wind turbine, the floating structure, the hydrodynamics and the loads change the dynamic behavior of a floating wind turbine. Consequently, conventional wind turbine control cause instabilities on floating wind turbines. This work addresses the control of a floating spar buoy wind turbine, and focuses on the impact of the additional platform dynamics. A time varying control model is presented based on the wind speed and wave frequency. Estimates of the wind speed and wave frequency are used as scheduling variables in a gain scheduled linear quadratic controller to improve the electrical power production while reducing fatigue. To address the problem of negative damped fore-aft tower motion, additional control loops are suggested which stabilize the response of the onshore controller and reduce the impact of the wave induced loads. This research is then extended to model predictive control, to further address wave disturbances. In the context of control engineering, the dynamics and disturbances of a floating wind turbine have been identified and modeled. The objectives of maximizing the production of electrical power and minimizing fatigue have been reached by using advanced methods of estimation and control. (Author)

  16. Advancements in the global modelling of coastal flood hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges and high tides can cause catastrophic floods. Due to climate change and socio-economic development the potential impacts of coastal floods are increasing globally. Global modelling of coastal flood hazard provides an important perspective to quantify and effectively manage this challenge. In this contribution we show two recent advancements in global modelling of coastal flood hazard: 1) a new improved global dataset of extreme sea levels, and 2) an improved vertical datum for extreme sea levels. Both developments have important implications for estimates of exposure and inundation modelling. For over a decade, the only global dataset of extreme sea levels was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL), which uses a static approximation to estimate total water levels for different return periods. Recent advances have enabled the development of a new dynamically derived dataset: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here we present a comparison of the DCESL and GTSR extreme sea levels and the resulting global flood exposure for present-day conditions. While DCESL generally overestimates extremes, GTSR underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. This results in differences in estimates of flood exposure. When using the 1 in 100-year GTSR extremes, the exposed global population is 28% lower than when using the 1 in 100-year DCESL extremes. Previous studies at continental to global-scales have not accounted for the fact that GTSR and DCESL are referenced to mean sea level, whereas global elevation datasets, such as SRTM, are referenced to the EGM96 geoid. We propose a methodology to correct for the difference in vertical datum and demonstrate that this also has a large effect on exposure. For GTSR, the vertical datum correction results in a 60% increase in global exposure.

  17. On Practical tuning of Model Uncertainty in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) has in previous works been applied on wind turbines with promising results. These results apply linear MPC, i.e., linear models linearized at different operational points depending on the wind speed. The linearized models are derived from a nonlinear first principles...... turbine simulator. We show how the linearization results in modeling errors, leading to major performance issues, which in the worst cases cause safety shutdowns of the wind turbine due to, e.g., too high rotor speeds. We propose an approach in which this problem is handled by adjusting relevant model...... parameters in the linearized model to fit the actual physical wind turbine behavior. We evaluate the MPC with the different model parameters, and show that, e.g., over-speed events are avoided, and a good performance of the wind turbine control is obtained....

  18. Internal tide modelling and the influence of wind effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Philip; Davies, Alan M.

    2007-05-01

    Initially the development of shallow sea three-dimensional barotropic tidal models is briefly reviewed with a view to determining what were the key measurements that allowed progress in this field and rigorous model validation. Subsequently this is extended to a brief review of baroclinic tidal models to try to determine a "way forward" for baroclinic model development. The difficulty of high spatial variability, and wind influence are identified as possibly important issues that must be considered in validating baroclinic tidal models. These are examined using a three-dimensional unstructured grid model of the M2 internal tide on the shelf edge region off the west coast of Scotland. The model is used to investigate the spatial variability of the M2 internal tide, and associated turbulence energy and mixing in the region. Initial calculations are performed with tidal forcing only, with subsequent calculations briefly examining how the tidal distribution is modified by down-welling and up-welling favourable winds. Calculations with tidal forcing only, show that there is significant spatial variability in the internal tide and associated mixing in the region. In addition, these are influenced by wind effects which may have to be taken into account in any model validation exercise. The paper ends by discussing the comprehensive nature of data sets that need to be collected to validate internal tidal models to the same level currently attained with three dimensional barotropic tidal models.

  19. Distributed Model Predictive Control of A Wind Farm for Optimal Active Power Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic discrete-time Piece- Wise Affine (PWA) model of a wind turbine for the optimal active power control of a wind farm. The control objectives include both the power reference tracking from the system operator and the wind turbine mechanical load minimization. Instead...... of partial linearization of the wind turbine model at selected operating points, the nonlinearities of the wind turbine model are represented by a piece-wise static function based on the wind turbine system inputs and state variables. The nonlinearity identification is based on the clustering-based algorithm......) or other advanced optimal control applications of a wind farm....

  20. SOFIA 2 model telescope wind tunnel test report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keas, Paul

    1995-01-01

    This document outlines the tests performed to make aerodynamic force and torque measurements on the SOFIA wind tunnel model telescope. These tests were performed during the SOFIA 2 wind tunnel test in the 14 ft wind tunnel during the months of June through August 1994. The test was designed to measure the dynamic cross elevation moment acting on the SOFIA model telescope due to aerodynamic loading. The measurements were taken with the telescope mounted in an open cavity in the tail section of the SOFIA model 747. The purpose of the test was to obtain an estimate of the full scale aerodynamic disturbance spectrum, by scaling up the wind tunnel results (taking into account differences in sail area, air density, cavity dimension, etc.). An estimate of the full scale cross elevation moment spectrum was needed to help determine the impact this disturbance would have on the telescope positioning system requirements. A model of the telescope structure, made of a light weight composite material, was mounted in the open cavity of the SOFIA wind tunnel model. This model was mounted via a force balance to the cavity bulkhead. Despite efforts to use a 'stiff' balance, and a lightweight model, the balance/telescope system had a very low resonant frequency (37 Hz) compared to the desired measurement bandwidth (1000 Hz). Due to this mechanical resonance of the balance/telescope system, the balance alone could not provide an accurate measure of applied aerodynamic force at the high frequencies desired. A method of measurement was developed that incorporated accelerometers in addition to the balance signal, to calculate the aerodynamic force.

  1. Modelling of a CFD Microscale Model and Its Application in Wind Energy Resource Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Jie-shun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of a wind farm near the wind turbines has a significant effect on the safety as well as economy of wind power generation. To assess the wind resource distribution within a complex terrain, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD based wind farm forecast microscale model is developed. The model uses the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS model to characterize the turbulence. By using the results of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF mesoscale weather forecast model as the input of the CFD model, a coupled model of CFD-WRF is established. A special method is used for the treatment of the information interchange on the lateral boundary between two models. This established coupled model is applied in predicting the wind farm near a wind turbine in Hong Gang-zi, Jilin, China. The results from this simulation are compared to real measured data. On this basis, the accuracy and efficiency of turbulence characterization schemes are discussed. It indicates that this coupling system is easy to implement and can make these two separate models work in parallel. The CFD model coupled with WRF has the advantage of high accuracy and fast speed, which makes it valid for the wind power generation.

  2. Wind Profiles and Wave Spectra for Potential Wind Farms in South China Sea. Part II: Wave Spectrum Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yichao Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Along with the commercialization of offshore wind energy in China, the South China Sea has been identified as ideal for constructing offshore wind farms, especially for farms consisting of floating wind turbines over deep waters. Since the wind profiles and wave spectra are somewhat primitive for the design of an offshore wind turbine, engineering models describing the wind and wave characteristics in the South China Sea area are necessary for the offshore wind energy exploitation given the meteorological, hydrological, and geographical differences between the South China Sea and the North/Norwegian Sea, where the commonly used wind profile and wave spectrum models were designated. In the present study; a series of numerical simulations were conducted to reveal the wave characteristics in the South China Sea under both typhoon and non-typhoon conditions. By analyzing the simulation results; the applicability of the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP spectrum model; in terms of characterizing the wind-induced wave fields in the South China Sea; was discussed. In detail; the key parameters of the JONSWAP spectrum model; such as the Phillips constant; spectral width parameter; peak-enhancement factor, and high frequency tail decay; were investigated in the context of finding suitable values.

  3. A Subgrid Parameterization for Wind Turbines in Weather Prediction Models with an Application to Wind Resource Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. H. Fiedler

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A subgrid parameterization is offered for representing wind turbines in weather prediction models. The parameterization models the drag and mixing the turbines cause in the atmosphere, as well as the electrical power production the wind causes in the wind turbines. The documentation of the parameterization is complete; it does not require knowledge of proprietary data of wind turbine characteristics. The parameterization is applied to a study of wind resource limits in a hypothetical giant wind farm. The simulated production density was found not to exceed 1 W m−2, peaking at a deployed capacity density of 5 W m−2 and decreasing slightly as capacity density increased to 20 W m−2.

  4. Microtab dynamic modelling for wind turbine blade load rejection

    OpenAIRE

    MacQuart, Terence; Maheri, Alireza; Busawon, Krishna

    2014-01-01

    A dynamic model characterising the effect of microtab deployment on the aerodynamics of its base aerofoil is presented. The developed model predicts the transient aerodynamic coefficients consistent with the experimental and computational data reported in the literature. The proposed model is then used to carry out investigation on the effectiveness of microtabs in load alleviation and lifespan increase of wind turbine blades. Simulating a bang–bang controller, different load rejection scenar...

  5. Flying with the wind: Scale dependency of speed and direction measurements in modelling wind support in avian flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, Kamran; Kranstauber, Bart; Weinzierl, Rolf P.; Griffin, Larry; Reese, Eileen C.; Cabot, David; Cruz, Sebastian; Proaño, Carolina; Takekawa, John Y.; Newman, Scott H.; Waldenström, Jonas; Bengtsson, Daniel; Kays, Roland; Wikelski, Martin; Bohrer, Gil

    2013-01-01

    Background: Understanding how environmental conditions, especially wind, influence birds' flight speeds is a prerequisite for understanding many important aspects of bird flight, including optimal migration strategies, navigation, and compensation for wind drift. Recent developments in tracking technology and the increased availability of data on large-scale weather patterns have made it possible to use path annotation to link the location of animals to environmental conditions such as wind speed and direction. However, there are various measures available for describing not only wind conditions but also the bird's flight direction and ground speed, and it is unclear which is best for determining the amount of wind support (the length of the wind vector in a bird’s flight direction) and the influence of cross-winds (the length of the wind vector perpendicular to a bird’s direction) throughout a bird's journey.Results: We compared relationships between cross-wind, wind support and bird movements, using path annotation derived from two different global weather reanalysis datasets and three different measures of direction and speed calculation for 288 individuals of nine bird species. Wind was a strong predictor of bird ground speed, explaining 10-66% of the variance, depending on species. Models using data from different weather sources gave qualitatively similar results; however, determining flight direction and speed from successive locations, even at short (15 min intervals), was inferior to using instantaneous GPS-based measures of speed and direction. Use of successive location data significantly underestimated the birds' ground and airspeed, and also resulted in mistaken associations between cross-winds, wind support, and their interactive effects, in relation to the birds' onward flight.Conclusions: Wind has strong effects on bird flight, and combining GPS technology with path annotation of weather variables allows us to quantify these effects for

  6. Code Shift: Grid Specifications and Dynamic Wind Turbine Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ackermann, Thomas; Ellis, Abraham; Fortmann, Jens

    2013-01-01

    Grid codes (GCs) and dynamic wind turbine (WT) models are key tools to allow increasing renewable energy penetration without challenging security of supply. In this article, the state of the art and the further development of both tools are discussed, focusing on the European and North American...

  7. PIV in a model wind turbine rotor wake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Knud Erik; Naumov, Igor; Karbadin, Ivan

    2013-01-01

    Stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements of the flow in the wake of scale model of a horizontal axis wind turbine is presented Near the rotor, measurements are made in vertical planes intersecting the rotor axis These planes capture flow effect from the tip and root vortices...

  8. Stochastic Models for Strength of Wind Turbine Blades using Tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    The structural cost of wind turbine blades is dependent on the values of the partial safety factors which reflect the uncertainties in the design values, including statistical uncertainty from a limited number of tests. This paper presents a probabilistic model for ultimate and fatigue strength...

  9. Optical process model for laser-assisted tape winding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baran, Ismet; Akkerman, Remko; Reichardt, J.M.; Drechsler, K.

    2016-01-01

    The present work is part of the EU-funded ambliFibre project in which a model-based on-line monitoring solution is being developed for the laser assisted tape winding (LATW) process of tubular fibre reinforced thermoplastic composite parts. Within this framework, an optical process simulation tool

  10. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  11. Importance of Dynamic Inflow Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Knudsen, Torben; Overgaard, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The efficiency of including dynamic inflow in the model based design of wind turbine controller has been discussed for many years in the wind energy community with out getting to a safe conclusion. This paper delivers a good argument in favor of including dynamic inflow. The main contributions...... pronounces. For this the well accepted NREL 5MW reference turbine simulated with FAST is used. The main result is a reduction in tower fatigue load at 22% while power error, rotor speed error, generator torque and pitch rate is improved from 2 to 33%....

  12. Scale Adaptive Simulation Model for the Darrieus Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rogowski, K.; Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Maroński, R.

    2016-01-01

    the scale adaptive simulation (SAS) approach for performance analysis of a one-bladed Darrieus wind turbine working at a tip speed ratio of 5 and at a blade Reynolds number of 40 000. The three-dimensional incompressible unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are used. Numerical results of aerodynamic loads......Accurate prediction of aerodynamic loads for the Darrieus wind turbine using more or less complex aerodynamic models is still a challenge. One of the problems is the small amount of experimental data available to validate the numerical codes. The major objective of the present study is to examine...

  13. Scale Adaptive Simulation Model for the Darrieus Wind Turbine

    OpenAIRE

    Rogowski, K.; Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Maroński, R.; Lichota, P.

    2016-01-01

    Accurate prediction of aerodynamic loads for the Darrieus wind turbine using more or less complex aerodynamic models is still a challenge. One of the problems is the small amount of experimental data available to validate the numerical codes. The major objective of the present study is to examine the scale adaptive simulation (SAS) approach for performance analysis of a one-bladed Darrieus wind turbine working at a tip speed ratio of 5 and at a blade Reynolds number of 40 000. The three-dimen...

  14. Thermophysical Modeling of Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (85989) 1999 JD6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Sean E.; Howell, Ellen S.; Vervack, Ronald J.; Magri, Christopher; Crowell, Jenna L.; Fernandez, Yanga R.; Campbell, Donald B.; Nolan, Michael C.; Reddy, Vishnu; Pravec, Petr; Bozek, Brandon

    2017-10-01

    We present thermal and photometric properties of potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid (85989) 1999 JD6, a contact binary with a maximum breadth of three kilometers. JD6's shape and rotation state are well constrained by radar and lightcurve observations. We used the absolutely calibrated lightcurves to determine JD6's photometric properties. We observed JD6 from NASA's InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF) on three nights in 2010 (from 0.8 to 4 microns) and on two nights in 2015 (from 0.7 to 5 microns). Additionally, JD6 has been observed in the mid-infrared using Spitzer (in 2008 and 2009) and WISE (in 2010). We compared those observations to model spectra from our SHERMAN software to determine JD6's thermal properties.

  15. Preliminary deformation model for National Seismic Hazard map of Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meilano, Irwan; Gunawan, Endra; Sarsito, Dina; Prijatna, Kosasih; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z. [Geodesy Research Division, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institute of Technology Bandung (Indonesia); Susilo,; Efendi, Joni [Agency for Geospatial Information (BIG) (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    Preliminary deformation model for the Indonesia’s National Seismic Hazard (NSH) map is constructed as the block rotation and strain accumulation function at the elastic half-space. Deformation due to rigid body motion is estimated by rotating six tectonic blocks in Indonesia. The interseismic deformation due to subduction is estimated by assuming coupling on subduction interface while deformation at active fault is calculated by assuming each of the fault‘s segment slips beneath a locking depth or in combination with creeping in a shallower part. This research shows that rigid body motion dominates the deformation pattern with magnitude more than 15 mm/year, except in the narrow area near subduction zones and active faults where significant deformation reach to 25 mm/year.

  16. Structure and predictive skill of strong northeasterly wind events using a limited area numerical weather prediction model at Iqaluit, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Hanesiak

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Strong northeasterly wind events are infrequent over Baffin Island, but are potentially hazardous for aviation and the local community of Iqaluit (the capital of Nunavut, Canada. Three strong northeasterly wind events in this region are examined in this study, using the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale-Limited Area Model (GEM-LAM with a horizontal grid spacing of 2.5 km; in-situ observations; and reanalysis data. The skill of the GEM-LAM in simulating these events is examined. With the exception of one event, the GEM-LAM was successful at predicting the large-scale flow in terms of the circulation pattern, timing of the synoptic set-up and the low-level flow over the Hall Peninsula. The onset and cessation of strong winds and timing of major wind shifts was typically well handled by the model to within ~3 h, but with a tendency to underestimate the peak wind speed. The skill of the surface wind forecasts at Iqaluit is critically dependent on the predicted timing and location of the hydraulic jump and the grid point selected to represent Iqaluit. Examination of the observed and modelled data suggest that the strong northeasterly wind events have several features in common: (1 strong gradient-driven flow across the Hall Peninsula, (2 mean-state critical layer (or reverse shear over the Hall Peninsula, (3 a low-level inversion, typically above the maximum barrier height immediately upstream of the Hall Peninsula, (4 subcritical flow, typically present upstream of the Hall Peninsula and (5 a hydraulic jump in the vicinity of Frobisher Bay. The modelled atmospheric conditions upwind of the Hall Peninsula immediately prior to the formation of the hydraulic jump (and acceleration of winds over the lee slope are largely consistent with the prediction of propagating hydraulic jumps presented in the literature.

  17. Efficient pan-European river flood hazard modelling through a combination of statistical and physical models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paprotny, D.; Morales Napoles, O.; Jonkman, S.N.

    2017-01-01

    Flood hazard is currently being researched on continental and global scales, using models of increasing complexity. In this paper we investigate a different, simplified approach, which combines statistical and physical models in place of conventional rainfall-run-off models to carry out flood

  18. A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Lane, Emily; Gillibrand, Philip

    2013-09-01

    Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.

  19. Some challenges of wind modelling for modern wind turbines: The Weibull distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gryning, Sven-Erik; Batchvarova, Ekatarina; Floors, Rogier

    2012-01-01

    Wind power assessments, as well as forecast of wind energy production, are key issues in wind energy and grid related studies. However the hub height of today’s wind turbines is well above the surface layer. Wind profiles studies based on mast data show that the wind profile above the surface layer...... and the turning of the wind direction with height will be touched upon, but we mainly will discuss the long term distribution of the wind speed, which is often represented by a Weibull distribution. It was found that above 100 meters both the measured scale (A) and shape (k) parameter are larger than predicted...

  20. Model Predictive Control for Load Frequency Control with Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable load frequency (LFC control is crucial to the operation and design of modern electric power systems. Considering the LFC problem of a four-area interconnected power system with wind turbines, this paper presents a distributed model predictive control (DMPC based on coordination scheme. The proposed algorithm solves a series of local optimization problems to minimize a performance objective for each control area. The scheme incorporates the two critical nonlinear constraints, for example, the generation rate constraint (GRC and the valve limit, into convex optimization problems. Furthermore, the algorithm reduces the impact on the randomness and intermittence of wind turbine effectively. A performance comparison between the proposed controller with and that without the participation of the wind turbines is carried out. Good performance is obtained in the presence of power system nonlinearities due to the governors and turbines constraints and load change disturbances.

  1. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, E.A., E-mail: elizabeth.masden@uhi.ac.uk [Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College-UHI, University of the Highlands and Islands, Ormlie Road, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7EE (United Kingdom); Cook, A.S.C.P. [British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-15

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  2. The Making of a Second-generation Wind Farm Efficiency Model Complex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Sten Tronæs; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

    2009-01-01

    kilometres down to the size of the individual wind turbine. Flow within wind farms is difficult to predict. The analytical and modified WAsP/park models show promise; however, these require further development/evaluation. For the flow downwind of the wind farm, several intermediate-scale models fit......The paper presents research to develop a model complex that takes into account the interaction between the wind farm and the atmosphere, and between closely spaced wind farms. Six models have been reviewed and developed/adapted for use in wind farm modelling, covering scales from several hundred...

  3. Modelling wave-boundary layer interaction for wind power applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, A. D.; Barstad, I.; Gupta, A.; Adakudlu, M.

    2012-04-01

    Marine wind power production facilities are subjected to direct and indirect effects of ocean waves. Direct effects include forces due to wave orbital motions and slamming of the water surface under breaking wave conditions, corrosion and icing due to sea spray, and the effects of wave-generated air bubbles. Indirect effects include include the influence of waves on the aerodynamic sea-surface roughness, air turbulence, the wind velocity profile, and air velocity oscillations, wave-induced currents and sediment transport. Field observations within the boundary layers from floating measurement may have to be corrected to account for biases induced as a result of wave-induced platform motions. To estimate the effect of waves on the atmospheric boundary layer we employ the WRF non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmosphere model, using the default YSU planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and the WAM spectral wave model, running simultaneously and coupled using the open-source coupler MCEL which can interpolate between different model grids and timesteps. The model is driven by the WRF wind velocity at 10 m above the surface. The WRF model receives from WAM updated air-sea stress fields computed from the wind input source term, and computes new fields for the Charnock parameter and marine surface aerodynamic roughness. Results from a North Atlantic and Nordic Seas simulation indicate that the two-way coupling scheme alters the 10 metre wind predicted by WRF by up to 10 per cent in comparison with a simulation using a constant Charnock parameter. The changes are greatest in developing situations with passages of fronts, moving depressions and squalls. This may be directly due to roughness length changes, or may be due to changes in the timing of front/depression/squall passages. Ongoing work includes investigating the effect of grid refinement/nesting, employing different PBL schemes, and allowing the wave field to change the direction of the total air-sea stress.

  4. Understanding Dynamic Model Validation of a Wind Turbine Generator and a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard; Zhang, Ying Chen; Gevorgian, Vahan; Kosterev, Dmitry

    2016-09-01

    Regional reliability organizations require power plants to validate the dynamic models that represent them to ensure that power systems studies are performed to the best representation of the components installed. In the process of validating a wind power plant (WPP), one must be cognizant of the parameter settings of the wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the operational settings of the WPP. Validating the dynamic model of a WPP is required to be performed periodically. This is because the control parameters of the WTGs and the other supporting components within a WPP may be modified to comply with new grid codes or upgrades to the WTG controller with new capabilities developed by the turbine manufacturers or requested by the plant owners or operators. The diversity within a WPP affects the way we represent it in a model. Diversity within a WPP may be found in the way the WTGs are controlled, the wind resource, the layout of the WPP (electrical diversity), and the type of WTGs used. Each group of WTGs constitutes a significant portion of the output power of the WPP, and their unique and salient behaviors should be represented individually. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the process of dynamic model validations of WTGs and WPPs, the available data recorded that must be screened before it is used for the dynamic validations, and the assumptions made in the dynamic models of the WTG and WPP that must be understood. Without understanding the correct process, the validations may lead to the wrong representations of the WTG and WPP modeled.

  5. Stochastic Modeling Of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    are needed for initial defects and damage accumulation. In this paper, stochastic models are formulated considering some of the failure modes observed in these components. The models are based on theoretical considerations, manufacturing uncertainties, size effects of different scales. It is illustrated how...

  6. Sensitivity of storm wave modeling to wind stress evaluation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yingjian; Yu, Xiping

    2017-06-01

    The application of the wave boundary layer model (WBLM) for wind stress evaluation to storm wave modeling is studied using Hurricane Katrina (2005) as an example, which is chosen due to its great intensity and good availability of field data. The WBLM is based on the momentum and energy conservation equations and takes into account the physical details of air-sea interaction processes as well as energy dissipation due to the presence of sea spray. Four widely-used bulk-type formulas are also used for comparison. Simulated significant wave heights with WBLM are shown to agree well with the observed data over deep water. The WBLM yields a smaller wind stress coefficient on the left hand side of the hurricane track, which is reasonable considering the effect of the sea state on momentum transfer. Quantitative results show that large differences of the significant wave height are observed in the hurricane core among five wind stress evaluation methods and the differences are up to 12 m, which is in agreement with the general knowlege that the ocean dynamic processes under storm conditions are very sensitive to the amount of momentum exchange at the air-sea interface. However, it is the depth-induced energy dissipation, rather than the wind energy input, that dominates the wave height in the shallow water region. A larger value of depth-induced breaking parameter in the wave model results in better agreement with the measurements over shallow water.

  7. Modelling the Spectra of Quasars: Clumpy Winds and Unification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, J.

    2015-09-01

    Blue shifted broad absorption lines (BALs) in the ultraviolet (UV) are seen in approximately 20% of quasi- stellar objects (QSOs), providing clear evidence that mass-loaded outflows are present in such systems (known as BALQSOs). These outflows may take the form of winds emanating from the accretion disk, and provide potential for a feedback mechanism with the host galaxy. Disk winds are also important in unification scenarios for QSOs and active galactic nuclei (AGN). We present Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations using a simple biconical disk wind model which has already successfully reproduced BAL profiles. Previous models exhibited a well-documented 'over-ionization problem' - it is difficult to maintain an ionization state which produces significant line opacity in UV resonance species such as CIV, while remaining consistent with observed X-ray luminosities of QSOs. We attempt to address this problem by examining the effect of clumping on the ionization state and inferred X-ray properties. We find that clumping allows for realistic X-ray properties compared to QSO/AGN samples and also produces significant broad emission lines at low inclinations. Our work suggests that such a disk wind geometry is a promising candidate for a unified model.

  8. Examination of the wind speed limit function in the Rothermel surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews; Miguel G. Cruz; Richard C. Rothermel

    2013-01-01

    The Rothermel surface fire spread model includes a wind speed limit, above which predicted rate of spread is constant. Complete derivation of the wind limit as a function of reaction intensity is given, along with an alternate result based on a changed assumption. Evidence indicates that both the original and the revised wind limits are too restrictive. Wind limit is...

  9. X-band COSMO-SkyMed wind field retrieval, with application to coastal circulation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Montuori

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, X-band COSMO-SkyMed© synthetic aperture radar (SAR wind field retrieval is investigated, and the obtained data are used to force a coastal ocean circulation model. The SAR data set consists of 60 X-band Level 1B Multi-Look Ground Detected ScanSAR Huge Region COSMO-SkyMed© SAR data, gathered in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea during the summer and winter seasons of 2010. The SAR-based wind vector field estimation is accomplished by resolving both the SAR-based wind speed and wind direction retrieval problems independently. The sea surface wind speed is retrieved by means of a SAR wind speed algorithm based on the azimuth cut-off procedure, while the sea surface wind direction is provided by means of a SAR wind direction algorithm based on the discrete wavelet transform multi-resolution analysis. The obtained wind fields are compared with ground truth data provided by both ASCAT scatterometer and ECMWF model wind fields. SAR-derived wind vector fields and ECMWF model wind data are used to construct a blended wind product regularly sampled in both space and time, which is then used to force a coastal circulation model of a southern Tyrrhenian coastal area to simulate wind-driven circulation processes. The modeling results show that X-band COSMO-SkyMed© SAR data can be valuable in providing effective wind fields for coastal circulation modeling.

  10. Comparison of wake models with data for offshore wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rados, K. [Robert Gordon Univ., School of Engineering, Aberdeen (United Kingdom); Larsen, G.; Barthelmie, R. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Schelz, W. [Garrad Hassan and Partners Ltd., Bristol (United Kingdom); Lange, B. [Oldenburg Univ., Dept. of Energy and Semiconductor Research EHF, Oldenburg (Germany); Schepers, G.; Hegberg, T. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation ECN, Solar and Wind Energy Dept., Petten (Netherlands); Magnisson, M. [Uppsala Univ., Dept. of Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2001-07-01

    A major objective of the ENDOW project is to evaluate the performance of wake models in offshore wind farm environments in order to ascertain the improvements required to enhance the prediction of power output within large offshore wind farms. The strategy for achieving this is to compare the performance of the models in a wide range of conditions which are expected to be encountered during turbine operation offshore. Six models of varying complexity have been evaluated initially against the Vindeby single wake data where it was found that almost all of them overestimate the wake effects and also significant inconsistencies between the model predictions appeared in the near wake and turbulence intensity results. Based on the conclusions of that study, the ENDOW wake modeling groups have already implemented a number of modifications to their original models. In the present paper, new single wake results are presented against experimental data at Vindeby and Bockstigen wind farms. Clearly, some of the model discrepancies previously observed in Vindeby cases have been smoothed and overall the performance is improved. (Author)

  11. Sequence Domain Harmonic Modeling of Type-IV Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim Høj; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

    2017-01-01

    A sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a gridconnected voltage-source converter is developed for decoupling converter generated voltage harmonics from voltage harmonics in the external grid. The modeling procedure includes a derivation of the baseband frequency response for regular......-sampled pulsewidth modulation and an analysis of converter generated voltage harmonics due to compensated dead-time. The decoupling capabilities of the proposed the SD harmonic model are verified through a power quality (PQ) assessment of a 3MW Type-IV wind turbine. The assessment shows that the magnitude and phase...... of low-order odd converter generated voltage harmonics are dependent on the converter operating point and the phase of the fundamental component of converter current respectively. The SD harmonic model can be used to make PQ assessments of Type-IV wind turbines or incorporated into harmonic load flows...

  12. Model test of new floating offshore wind turbine platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunkyoung Shin

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the model test results of 3 new spar platforms which were developed based on the OC3-Hywind spar to support a 5-MW wind turbine. By changing the shape but keeping both volume and mass of OC3-Hywind spar platform, those platforms were expected to experience different hydrodynamic and hydrostatic loads. The scale models were built with a 1/128 scale ratio. The model tests were carried out in waves, including both rotating rotor effect and mean wind speed. The characteristic motions of the 3 new models were measured; Response Amplitude Operators (RAO and significant motions were calculated and compared with those of OC3-Hywind.

  13. Distribution modeling of hazardous airborne emissions from industrial campuses in Iraq via GIS techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salwan Al-Hasnawi, S.; Salam Bash AlMaliki, J.; Falih Nazal, Zainab

    2017-08-01

    The presence of considerable amounts of hazardous elements in air may represent prolonged lethal effects for the residential and/or commercial campuses and activities, especially those around the emission activities, hence it is so important to monitor and anticipate these concentrations and design an effective spatial forecasting models for that sake. Geographic information systems GIS were utilized to monitor, analyze and model the presence and concentrations for airborne Pb, Cr, and Zn elements in the atmosphere around certain industrial campuses at the northern part of Iraq. Diffusion patterns were determined for these elements via the adaptation of GIS extension; the geostatistical and spatial analysis that implement Kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW) methods to interpolate a raster surface. The main determination factors like wind speed, ambient temperature and topographic distributions were considered in order to design a prediction model that serves as early alert of future possible accidents. Results of eight months observation program have proved that the concentrations of the three elements had significantly exceeded the Iraqi and WHO limits at most of the observed locations especially for summer times. Also, the predicted models were validated with the field measures and have proved close match especially for the geostatistical analysis map that had around 4% percentage error for the three tested elements.

  14. Comoving frame models of hot star winds. II. Reduction of O star wind mass-loss rates in global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krtička, J.; Kubát, J.

    2017-10-01

    We calculate global (unified) wind models of main-sequence, giant, and supergiant O stars from our Galaxy. The models are calculated by solving hydrodynamic, kinetic equilibrium (also known as NLTE) and comoving frame (CMF) radiative transfer equations from the (nearly) hydrostatic photosphere to the supersonic wind. For given stellar parameters, our models predict the photosphere and wind structure and in particular the wind mass-loss rates without any free parameters. Our predicted mass-loss rates are by a factor of 2-5 lower than the commonly used predictions. A possible cause of the difference is abandoning of the Sobolev approximation for the calculation of the radiative force, because our models agree with predictions of CMF NLTE radiative transfer codes. Our predicted mass-loss rates agree nicely with the mass-loss rates derived from observed near-infrared and X-ray line profiles and are slightly lower than mass-loss rates derived from combined UV and Hα diagnostics. The empirical mass-loss rate estimates corrected for clumping may therefore be reconciled with theoretical predictions in such a way that the average ratio between individual mass-loss rate estimates is not higher than about 1.6. On the other hand, our predictions are by factor of 4.7 lower than pure Hα mass-loss rate estimates and can be reconciled with these values only assuming a microclumping factor of at least eight.

  15. Effect of wind turbine generator model and siting on wind power changes out of large WECS arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleuter, R. A.; Park, G. L.; Lotfalian, M.; Dorsey, J.; Shayanfar, H.

    1981-01-01

    Methods of reducing the WECS generation change through selection of the wind turbine model for each site, selection of an appropriate siting configuration, and wind array controls are discussed. An analysis of wind generation change from an echelon and a farm for passage of a thunderstorm is presented. Reduction of the wind generation change over ten minutes is shown to reduce the increase in spinning reserve, unloadable generation and load following requirements on unit commitment when significant WECS generation is present and the farm penetration constraint is satisfied. Controls on the blade pitch angle of all wind turbines in an array or a battery control are shown to reduce both the wind generation change out of an array and the effective farm penetration in anticipation of a storm so that the farm penetration constraint may be satisfied.

  16. Mathematical model “The electric line - wind farm”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merenco V.

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available It is considered the problem of finding of the mathematical model of a circuit “electric line – wind farm” with the purpose of analysis of operating modes by a method of mathematical simulation. The mathematical model is based on a method of characteristics, takes into account heterogeneity of a circuit and allows realizing various modes and changes in structure of a circuit simple change of values of sizes set as the concentrated parameters.

  17. Changes in Surface Wind Speed over North America from CMIP5 Model Projections and Implications for Wind Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujay Kulkarni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The centennial trends in the surface wind speed over North America are deduced from global climate model simulations in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5 archive. Using the 21st century simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, 5–10 percent increases per century in the 10 m wind speed are found over Central and East-Central United States, the Californian Coast, and the South and East Coasts of the USA in winter. In summer, climate models projected decreases in the wind speed ranging from 5 to 10 percent per century over the same coastal regions. These projected changes in the surface wind speed are moderate and imply that the current estimate of wind power potential for North America based on present-day climatology will not be significantly changed by the greenhouse gas forcing in the coming decades.

  18. Key aspects of stratospheric tracer modeling using assimilated winds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bregman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study describes key aspects of global chemistry-transport models and their impact on stratospheric tracer transport. We concentrate on global models that use assimilated winds from numerical weather predictions, but the results also apply to tracer transport in general circulation models. We examined grid resolution, numerical diffusion, air parcel dispersion, the wind or mass flux update frequency, and time interpolation. The evaluation is performed with assimilated meteorology from the "operational analyses or operational data" (OD from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. We also show the effect of the mass flux update frequency using the ECMWF 40-year re-analyses (ERA40. We applied the three-dimensional chemistry-transport Tracer Model version 5 (TM5 and a trajectory model and performed several diagnoses focusing on different transport regimes. Covering different time and spatial scales, we examined (1 polar vortex dynamics during the Arctic winter, (2 the large-scale stratospheric meridional circulation, and (3 air parcel dispersion in the tropical lower stratosphere. Tracer distributions inside the Arctic polar vortex show considerably worse agreement with observations when the model grid resolution in the polar region is reduced to avoid numerical instability. The results are sensitive to the diffusivity of the advection. Nevertheless, the use of a computational cheaper but diffusive advection scheme is feasible for tracer transport when the horizontal grid resolution is equal or smaller than 1 degree. The use of time interpolated winds improves the tracer distributions, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere. Considerable improvement is found both in the large-scale tracer distribution and in the polar regions when the update frequency of the assimilated winds is increased from 6 to 3 h. It considerably reduces the vertical dispersion of air parcels in the tropical lower stratosphere. Strong

  19. Winding number order in the Haldane model with interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alba, E.; Pachos, J. K.; García-Ripoll, J. J.

    2016-03-01

    We study the Haldane model with nearest-neighbor interactions. This model is physically motivated by the associated implementation with ultracold atoms. We show that the topological phase of the interacting model can be characterized by a physically observable winding number. The robustness of this number extends well beyond the topological insulator phase towards attractive and repulsive interactions that are comparable to the kinetic energy scale of the model. We identify and characterize the relevant phases of the model as a function of the interaction strength.

  20. Optimization Model for Economic Evaluation of Wind Farms - How to Optimize a Wind Energy Project Economically and Technically

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Sousa de Oliveira

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes a review and systematize methods and techniques of economic evaluation applied to renewable energy projects, specific to wind energy projects. Both project and cost methodologies of economic evaluation are reviewed for a model optimization construction for a proposed optimization model with its objective function most appropriated. It is necessary to engage in different approaches, but complementary, microeconomic project evaluation methods and optimization methods applied to engineering solutions in wind energy converter systems. Optimization model for economic evaluation of wind farms can be as an efficient planning and resource management, which is the key to the success of an energy project. Wind energy is one of the most potent alternative energy resources; however the economics of wind energy is not yet universally favorable to place wind at a competitive platform with coal and natural gas (fossil fuels. Economic evaluation models of wind projects developed would allow investors to better plan their projects, as well as provide valuable insight into the areas that require further development to improve the overall economics of wind energy projects.

  1. Sensitivity analysis of nacelle lidar free stream wind speed measurements to wind-induction reconstruction model and lidar range configuration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Elin; Borraccino, Antoine; Meyer Forsting, Alexander Raul

    The sensitivity of nacelle lidar wind speed measurements to wind-induction models and lidar range configurations is studied using experimental data from the Nørrekær Enge (NKE) measurement campaign and simulated lidar data from Reynold-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) aerodynamic computational fluid...

  2. A modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures in multi-hazard environments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Nathanael J. K.; Gearhart, Jared Lee; Jones, Dean A.; Nozick, Linda Karen; Prince, Michael

    2013-09-01

    Currently, much of protection planning is conducted separately for each infrastructure and hazard. Limited funding requires a balance of expenditures between terrorism and natural hazards based on potential impacts. This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project that created a modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures focused on multiple hazards, including terrorism. To develop this framework, three modeling elements were integrated: natural hazards, terrorism, and interdependent infrastructures. For natural hazards, a methodology was created for specifying events consistent with regional hazards. For terrorism, we modeled the terrorists actions based on assumptions regarding their knowledge, goals, and target identification strategy. For infrastructures, we focused on predicting post-event performance due to specific terrorist attacks and natural hazard events, tempered by appropriate infrastructure investments. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with various examples, including protection of electric power, roadway, and hospital networks.

  3. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca Daniela; Iov, F.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    , mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. The main attention in the report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of the following wind turbine concepts: 1. Fixed speed active stall wind turbine concept 2. Variable...... speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept 3. Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies...

  4. Developments of the offshore wind turbine wake model Fuga

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ott, Søren; Nielsen, Morten

    features to Fuga and turn it into a useful tool for offshore wind farm developers. The new features consist in - Flexibility. Including the ability to cope with several types of turbines in the same project, thus making it possible to predict inter farm interactions. The graphical user interface has been...... from Horns Rev has been made in order to quantify the impact of non-stationarity of the wind direction. The results are generalized so as to account for the uncertainties imposed by a ten minute mean value trend as well as by the distance between turbines and the met mast. The old model has been......This is the final report of the project entitled Risø DTU Modelling Services carried out by DTU Wind Energy (formerly known as Risø National Laboratory) as part of the Carbon Trust's Offshore Wind Accelerator Stage 2 under a contract with Carbon Trust. The project is a follow-up to a Carbon Trust...

  5. The Effect of Wind Forcing on Modeling Coastal Circulation at a Marine Renewable Test Site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Ren

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The hydrodynamic circulation in estuaries is primarily driven by tides, river inflows and surface winds. While tidal and river data can be quite easily obtained for input to hydrodynamic models, sourcing accurate surface wind data is problematic. Inaccurate wind data can lead to inaccuracies in the surface currents computed by three-dimensional hydrodynamic models. In this research, a high-resolution wind model was coupled with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary on the west coast of Ireland, to investigate the effect of wind forcing on model accuracy. Two wind-forcing conditions were investigated: (1 using wind data measured onshore on the NUI Galway campus (NUIG and (2 using offshore wind data provided by a high resolution wind model (HR. A scenario with no wind forcing (NW was also assessed. The onshore wind data varied with time but the speed and direction were applied across the full model domain. The modeled offshore wind fields varied with both time and space. The effect of wind forcing on modeled hydrodynamics was assessed via comparison of modeled surface currents with surface current measurements obtained from a High-Frequency (HF radar Coastal Ocean Dynamics Applications Radar (CODAR observation system. Results indicated that winds were most significant in simulating the north-south surface velocity component. The model using high resolution temporally- and spatially-varying wind data achieved better agreement with the CODAR surface currents than the model using the onshore wind measurements and the model without any wind forcing.

  6. Numerical modelling for real-time forecasting of marine oil pollution and hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Dominicis, Michela; Pinardi, Nadia; Bruciaferri, Diego; Liubartseva, Svitlana

    2015-04-01

    (MEDESS4MS) system, which is an integrated operational multi-model oil spill prediction service, that can be used by different users to run simulations of oil spills at sea, even in real time, through a web portal. The MEDESS4MS system gathers different oil spill modelling systems and data from meteorological and ocean forecasting systems, as well as operational information on response equipment, together with environmental and socio-economic sensitivity maps. MEDSLIK-II has been also used to provide an assessment of hazard stemming from operational oil ship discharges in the Southern Adriatic and Northern Ionian (SANI) Seas. Operational pollution resulting from ships consists of a movable hazard with a magnitude that changes dynamically as a result of a number of external parameters varying in space and time (temperature, wind, sea currents). Simulations of oil releases have been performed with realistic oceanographic currents and the results show that the oil pollution hazard distribution has an inherent spatial and temporal variability related to the specific flow field variability.

  7. MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF FLOW PARAMETERS FOR SINGLE WIND TURBINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is known that on the territory of the Russian Federation the construction of several large wind farms is planned. The tasks connected with design and efficiency evaluation of wind farm work are in demand today. One of the possible directions in design is connected with mathematical modeling. The method of large eddy simulation developed within the direction of computational hydrodynamics allows to reproduce unsteady structure of the flow in details and to determine various integrated values. The calculation of work for single wind turbine installation by means of large eddy simulation and Actuator Line Method along the turbine blade is given in this work. For problem definition the numerical method in the form of a box was considered and the adapted unstructured grid was used.The mathematical model included the main equations of continuity and momentum equations for incompressible fluid. The large-scale vortex structures were calculated by means of integration of the filtered equations. The calculation was carried out with Smagorinsky model for determination of subgrid scale turbulent viscosity. The geometrical parametersof wind turbine were set proceeding from open sources in the Internet.All physical values were defined at center of computational cell. The approximation of items in equations was ex- ecuted with the second order of accuracy for time and space. The equations for coupling velocity and pressure were solved by means of iterative algorithm PIMPLE. The total quantity of the calculated physical values on each time step was equal to 18. So, the resources of a high performance cluster were required.As a result of flow calculation in wake for the three-bladed turbine average and instantaneous values of velocity, pressure, subgrid kinetic energy and turbulent viscosity, components of subgrid stress tensor were worked out. The re- ceived results matched the known results of experiments and numerical simulation, testify the opportunity

  8. Research collaboration, hazard modeling and dissemination in volcanology with Vhub

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palma Lizana, J. L.; Valentine, G. A.

    2011-12-01

    Vhub (online at vhub.org) is a cyberinfrastructure for collaboration in volcanology research, education, and outreach. One of the core objectives of this project is to accelerate the transfer of research tools to organizations and stakeholders charged with volcano hazard and risk mitigation (such as observatories). Vhub offers a clearinghouse for computational models of volcanic processes and data analysis, documentation of those models, and capabilities for online collaborative groups focused on issues such as code development, configuration management, benchmarking, and validation. A subset of simulations is already available for online execution, eliminating the need to download and compile locally. In addition, Vhub is a platform for sharing presentations and other educational material in a variety of media formats, which are useful in teaching university-level volcanology. VHub also has wikis, blogs and group functions around specific topics to encourage collaboration and discussion. In this presentation we provide examples of the vhub capabilities, including: (1) tephra dispersion and block-and-ash flow models; (2) shared educational materials; (3) online collaborative environment for different types of research, including field-based studies and plume dispersal modeling; (4) workshops. Future goals include implementation of middleware to allow access to data and databases that are stored and maintained at various institutions around the world. All of these capabilities can be exercised with a user-defined level of privacy, ranging from completely private (only shared and visible to specified people) to completely public. The volcanological community is encouraged to use the resources of vhub and also to contribute models, datasets, and other items that authors would like to disseminate. The project is funded by the US National Science Foundation and includes a core development team at University at Buffalo, Michigan Technological University, and University

  9. Parker's Model for Stellar Wind and Magnetohydrodynamic Extensions

    CERN Document Server

    Shivamoggi, B K

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we first revisit Parker's hydrodynamic model for a stellar wind and make further analytic considerations. We show that the visualization of an effective de Laval type nozzle associated with Parker's model is valid only in a superficial sense and not on the dynamical level. We then make an analytic considerations on the Weber-Davis magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) extension of Parker's model with a view to provide a qualitative understanding of the coupling between the magnetic field and the plasma motion in the stellar wind. We find that, *the MHD azimuthal velocity profile actually resembles that for hydrodynamic Lamb-Oseen vortex; *Keplerian-orbit conditions prevail near a strong rotator even in a magnetized situation; *Parker's hydrodynamic scenario \\cite{Par} seems to reappear in the strong magnetization regime.\\end{itemize}

  10. Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macneice, P. J.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Taktakishvili, A.

    2009-01-01

    Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.

  11. Modeling and investigation of Gulf El-Zayt wind farm for stability studying during extreme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Noureldeen

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of extreme gust wind as a case of wind speed variation on a wind farm interconnected electrical grid. The impact of extreme gust wind speed variation on active and reactive power of the wind farms is studied for variable speed wind farm equipped with Doubly Fed Induction Generators (DFIGs. A simulation model of the under implementation 120 MW wind farm at Gulf El-Zayt region, Red Sea, Egypt, is simulated as a case study. A detailed model of extreme gust wind speed variation is implemented and simulated, using MATLAB/Simulink toolbox, based on International Electrotechnical Commission IEC 61400-1 and climate characteristic of Gulf El-Zayt site. The simulation results show the influence of different extreme gust wind speed variations on the fluctuation of active power and reactive power at the Point of Common Coupling (PCC of the studied wind farm.

  12. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  13. A semi-parametric generalization of the Cox proportional hazards regression model: Inference and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Devarajan, Karthik; Ebrahimi, Nader

    2011-01-01

    The assumption of proportional hazards (PH) fundamental to the Cox PH model sometimes may not hold in practice. In this paper, we propose a generalization of the Cox PH model in terms of the cumulative hazard function taking a form similar to the Cox PH model, with the extension that the baseline cumulative hazard function is raised to a power function. Our model allows for interaction between covariates and the baseline hazard and it also includes, for the two sample problem, the case of two...

  14. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified......In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature...... and the relevance to natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated....

  15. A Predictive Model for Wind Farms Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Vaughan; Meneveau, Charles; Gayme, Dennice

    2016-11-01

    In this work we extend traditional dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to develop a linear predictive model for the time evolution of the velocity field for a multiple-turbine wind farm. Traditional DMD identifies a set of DMD modes which can be used to produce a linear system that approximates the dynamics of the original system. Typically, these DMD modes consist of those that both grow and decay, but in order to develop a predictive model we need a system that evolves along a manifold that neither grows nor decays. Here we modify the DMD calculation to build such a model. We then apply this method to three dimensional large eddy simulations (LES) of a multi-turbine wind farm. Our predictive wind farm model is initialized with a small time series of data independent of the original data used to create the system. When initialized in this manner our DMD based model can reproduce the subsequent time evolution of the velocity field over ten inter-turbine convective timescales with a gradual falloff in performance. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation (Grants ECCS-1230788 and OISE-1243482, the WINDINSPIRE project).

  16. A Critical Review on Wind Turbine Power Curve Modelling Techniques and Their Applications in Wind Based Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaishali Sohoni

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power curve of a wind turbine depicts the relationship between output power and hub height wind speed and is an important characteristic of the turbine. Power curve aids in energy assessment, warranty formulations, and performance monitoring of the turbines. With the growth of wind industry, turbines are being installed in diverse climatic conditions, onshore and offshore, and in complex terrains causing significant departure of these curves from the warranted values. Accurate models of power curves can play an important role in improving the performance of wind energy based systems. This paper presents a detailed review of different approaches for modelling of the wind turbine power curve. The methodology of modelling depends upon the purpose of modelling, availability of data, and the desired accuracy. The objectives of modelling, various issues involved therein, and the standard procedure for power performance measurement with its limitations have therefore been discussed here. Modelling methods described here use data from manufacturers’ specifications and actual data from the wind farms. Classification of modelling methods, various modelling techniques available in the literature, model evaluation criteria, and application of soft computing methods for modelling are then reviewed in detail. The drawbacks of the existing methods and future scope of research are also identified.

  17. Comparison of Standard Wind Turbine Models with Vendor Models for Power System Stability Analysis: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honrubia-Escribano, A.; Gomez Lazaro, E.; Jimenez-Buendia, F.; Muljadi, Eduard

    2016-11-01

    The International Electrotechnical Commission Standard 61400-27-1 was published in February 2015. This standard deals with the development of generic terms and parameters to specify the electrical characteristics of wind turbines. Generic models of very complex technological systems, such as wind turbines, are thus defined based on the four common configurations available in the market. Due to its recent publication, the comparison of the response of generic models with specific vendor models plays a key role in ensuring the widespread use of this standard. This paper compares the response of a specific Gamesa dynamic wind turbine model to the corresponding generic IEC Type III wind turbine model response when the wind turbine is subjected to a three-phase voltage dip. This Type III model represents the doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine, which is not only one of the most commonly sold and installed technologies in the current market but also a complex variable-speed operation implementation. In fact, active and reactive power transients are observed due to the voltage reduction. Special attention is given to the reactive power injection provided by the wind turbine models because it is a requirement of current grid codes. Further, the boundaries of the generic models associated with transient events that cannot be represented exactly are included in the paper.

  18. CFD Wake Modelling with a BEM Wind Turbine Sub-Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Hallanger

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling of wind farms using computational fluid dynamics (CFD resolving the flow field around each wind turbine's blades on a moving computational grid is still too costly and time consuming in terms of computational capacity and effort. One strategy is to use sub-models for the wind turbines, and sub-grid models for turbulence production and dissipation to model the turbulent viscosity accurately enough to handle interaction of wakes in wind farms. A wind turbine sub-model, based on the Blade Momentum Theory, see Hansen (2008, has been implemented in an in-house CFD code, see Hallanger et al. (2002. The tangential and normal reaction forces from the wind turbine blades are distributed on the control volumes (CVs at the wind turbine rotor location as sources in the conservation equations of momentum. The classical k-epsilon turbulence model of Launder and Spalding (1972 is implemented with sub-grid turbulence (SGT model, see Sha and Launder (1979 and Sand and Salvesen (1994. Steady state CFD simulations were compared with flow and turbulence measurements in the wake of a model scale wind turbine, see Krogstad and Eriksen (2011. The simulated results compared best with experiments when stalling (boundary layer separation on the wind turbine blades did not occur. The SGT model did improve turbulence level in the wake but seems to smear the wake flow structure. It should be noted that the simulations are carried out steady state not including flow oscillations caused by vortex shedding from tower and blades as they were in the experiments. Further improvement of the simulated velocity defect and turbulence level seems to rely on better parameter estimation to the SGT model, improvements to the SGT model, and possibly transient- instead of steady state simulations.

  19. Modeling large offshore wind farms under different atmospheric stability regimes with the Park wake model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peña, Alfredo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Rathmann, Ole

    2013-01-01

    Here, we evaluate a modified version of the Park wake model against power data from a west-east row in the middle of the Horns Rev I offshore wind farm. The evaluation is performed on data classified in four different atmospheric stability conditions, for a narrow wind speed range, and a wide range...... of westerly wind directions observed at the wind farm. Simulations (post-processed to partly account for the wind direction uncertainty) and observations show good agreement for all stability classes, being the simulations using a stability-dependent wake decay coefficient closer to the data for the last...... turbines and those using the WAsP recommended value closer to the data for the first turbines. It is generally seen that under stable and unstable atmospheric conditions the power deficits are the highest and lowest, respectively, but the wind conditions under both stability regimes are different...

  20. Modeling large offshore wind farms under different atmospheric stability regimes with the Park wake model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Rathmann, Ole

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate a modified version of the Park wake model against power data from a west-east row in the middle of the Horns Rev I offshore wind farm. The evaluation is performed on data classified in four different atmospheric stability conditions, for a narrow wind speed range, and a wide range...... of westerly wind directions observed at the wind farm. Simulations (post-processed to partly account for the wind direction uncertainty) and observations show good agreement for all stability classes, being the simulations using a stability-dependent wake decay coefficient closer to the data for the last...... turbines on the row and those using the WAsP recommended value closer to the data for the first turbines. It is generally seen that under stable and unstable atmospheric conditions the power deficits are the highest and lowest, respectively, but the wind conditions under both stability regimes...

  1. Assessment of changes in extreme wind speeds from regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Michael; Rauthe, Monika; Mohr, Susanna

    2010-05-01

    Extratropical cyclones that usually develop and amplify over the Northern Atlantic are characteristic compartments of Europeans climate. Associated destructive wind speeds along with a large horizontal extent may cause substantial amount of damage. In Central Europe, winter storms are responsible for more than the half of the total economic loss caused by natural hazards. In light of global warming it is an important and still open question to what extent the frequency and/or intensity of severe winter storms may change by greenhouse gas forcing conditions (IPCC, 2007). To study regional impacts of climate change on the local storm climatology in Central Europe, different scenarios from two regional climate models (RCM) with a horizontal resolution of 10 and 18 km, respectively, are used. We considered three emission scenarios (A1B, B1, A2) and two RCMs, the Regional Model (REMO) and the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (CCLM), where the latter is initialized by two different runs of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Extreme value statistics are applied to calculate gust wind speeds for a specific return period at each grid point. Changes in the regional storm climate are quantified by differences in the gusts between a projection period (2021-2050) and a control period (1971-2000). The evaluation of extreme wind speeds for a 10-year return period within the control period show that the spatial patterns as well as the characteristics of extremes are quite well reproduced by the models. The magnitude of the gusts, however, are significantly underestimated by 10 to 30%. This can be attributed to deficiencies in the gust parameterization schemes and the coarse resolution of the model chain which is unable to reproduce strong pressure gradients. These effects, however, will vanish when considering relative differences between two different time periods. Expected changes in extreme wind speeds for the future show a high variability both between the grid points

  2. Experimental model of a wind energy conversion system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasar, C.; Rat, C. L.; Prostean, O.

    2018-01-01

    The renewable energy domain represents an important issue for the sustainable development of the mankind in the actual context of increasing demand for energy along with the increasing pollution that affect the environment. A significant quota of the clean energy is represented by the wind energy. As a consequence, the developing of wind energy conversion systems (WECS) in order to achieve high energetic performances (efficiency, stability, availability, competitive cost etc) represents a topic of permanent actuality. Testing and developing of an optimized control strategy for a WECS direct implemented on a real energetic site is quite difficult and not cost efficient. Thus a more convenient solution consists in a flexible laboratory setup which requires an experimental model of a WECS. Such approach would allow the simulation of various real conditions very similar with existing energetic sites. This paper presents a grid-connected wind turbine emulator. The wind turbine is implemented through a real-time Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) emulator, which will be analyzed extensively in the paper. The HIL system uses software implemented in the LabVIEW programming environment to control an ABB ACS800 electric drive. ACS800 has the task of driving an induction machine coupled to a permanent magnet synchronous generator. The power obtained from the synchronous generator is rectified, filtered and sent to the main grid through a controlled inverter. The control strategy is implemented on a NI CompactRIO (cRIO) platform.

  3. Wind Wave Numerical Modeling in the Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoodi, R.; Ardalan, A. A.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Numerical simulation results of wind wave in the Caspian Sea by using wind forcing data are presented. The numerical modeling which is applied in this study is based on numerical spectral wave model which is based on Navier-Stokes equations. It solves these equations through each of mesh elements. Moreover, in this model high-resolution unstructured grid for the Caspian Sea has been used in order to reach finer accuracy. The wind forcing data are given from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The measurement data, which are gained from Ports and Marine Organisation (PMO) of Iran, are used in order to estimate the accuracy of the model. The results have shown better accuracy in comparison with PMO simulation. Mean of the coefficient of determination (R-squared) for significant wave height in this simulation is 0.8059, though, in PMO simulation this coefficient is reported 0.7056. Better accuracy requires more measurement data and also finer resolution of bathymetry data.

  4. WIND WAVE NUMERICAL MODELING IN THE CASPIAN SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Mahmoodi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulation results of wind wave in the Caspian Sea by using wind forcing data are presented. The numerical modeling which is applied in this study is based on numerical spectral wave model which is based on Navier-Stokes equations. It solves these equations through each of mesh elements. Moreover, in this model high-resolution unstructured grid for the Caspian Sea has been used in order to reach finer accuracy. The wind forcing data are given from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. The measurement data, which are gained from Ports and Marine Organisation (PMO of Iran, are used in order to estimate the accuracy of the model. The results have shown better accuracy in comparison with PMO simulation. Mean of the coefficient of determination (R-squared for significant wave height in this simulation is 0.8059, though, in PMO simulation this coefficient is reported 0.7056. Better accuracy requires more measurement data and also finer resolution of bathymetry data.

  5. Impact of tower modeling on wind turbine wakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleusberg, Elektra; Schlatter, Philipp; Henningson, Dan

    2017-11-01

    Recent research suggests the importance of modeling the support structure (tower and nacelle) when investigating the wake development behind wind turbines. These investigations are however mostly limited to low ambient turbulence levels which seldomly occur in field conditions. We present numerical simulations of wind turbine wakes using the actuator line method under different inflow conditions including varying turbulence levels and sheared inflow. The wind turbine, which employs the NREL S826 airfoil, is modeled after experiments conducted at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. The rotor is investigated when perpendicular to the inflow and at a yaw angle of 30 degrees. The support structure is modeled using lift and drag body forces based on tabulated data. The simulations are performed with the spectral-element code Nek5000. After discussing the setup of the numerical domain and the turbulent inflow boundary condition, the influence of the tower model is characterized under turbulent, sheared and uniform inflow and the impact on downstream turbines is evaluated.

  6. Offshore Wind Resources Assessment from Multiple Satellite Data and WRF Modeling over South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Chang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using accurate inputs of wind speed is crucial in wind resource assessment, as predicted power is proportional to the wind speed cubed. This study outlines a methodology for combining multiple ocean satellite winds and winds from WRF simulations in order to acquire the accurate reconstructed offshore winds which can be used for offshore wind resource assessment. First, wind speeds retrieved from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR and Scatterometer ASCAT images were validated against in situ measurements from seven coastal meteorological stations in South China Sea (SCS. The wind roses from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS and ASCAT agree well with these observations from the corresponding in situ measurements. The statistical results comparing in situ wind speed and SAR-based (ASCAT-based wind speed for the whole co-located samples show a standard deviation (SD of 2.09 m/s (1.83 m/s and correlation coefficient of R 0.75 (0.80. When the offshore winds (i.e., winds directed from land to sea are excluded, the comparison results for wind speeds show an improvement of SD and R, indicating that the satellite data are more credible over the open ocean. Meanwhile, the validation of satellite winds against the same co-located mast observations shows a satisfactory level of accuracy which was similar for SAR and ASCAT winds. These satellite winds are then assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF Model by WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA system. Finally, the wind resource statistics at 100 m height based on the reconstructed winds have been achieved over the study area, which fully combines the offshore wind information from multiple satellite data and numerical model. The findings presented here may be useful in future wind resource assessment based on satellite data.

  7. Measurements and modeling of the wind profile up to 600 meters at a flat coastal site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batchvarova, Ekaterina; Gryning, Sven-Erik; Floors, Rogier Ralph

    2014-01-01

    This study shows long-term ABL wind profile features by comparing long-range wind lidar measurements and the output from a mesoscale model. The study is based on one-year pulsed lidar (Wind Cube 70) measurements of wind speed and direction from 100 to 600 meters with vertical resolution of 50...... as function of height. It is found that 1) WRF is generally under predicting both the profiles of the measured wind speed, direction and power density, 2) the scatter of observations to model results of the wind speed does not change significantly with height between 100 and 600 meters, and 3) the scale (A...... meters and time resolution of 10 minutes at a coastal site on the West coast of Denmark and WRF ARW (NCAR) simulations for the same period. The model evaluation is performed based on wind speed, wind direction, as well as statistical parameters of the Weibull distribution of the wind speed time series...

  8. Wind Farm parametrization in the mesoscale model WRF

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2012-01-01

    significantly lower computational costs compared to high resolution models. Due to the fact that its typical horizontal grid spacing is on the order of 2km, the energy extracted by the turbine, as well as the wake development inside the turbine- containing grid cells, are not described explicitly......, but are parametrized as another sub-grid scale process. In order to appropriately capture the wind farm wake recovery and its direction, two properties are important, among others, the total energy extracted by the wind farm and its velocity deficit distribution. In the considered parametrization the individual...... turbines produce a thrust dependent on the background velocity. For the sub-grid scale velocity deficit, the entrainment from the free atmospheric flow into the wake region, which is responsible for the expansion, is taken into account. Furthermore, since the model horizontal distance is several times...

  9. An electronic scanner of pressure for wind tunnel models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauffman, Ronald C.; Coe, Charles F.

    1986-01-01

    An electronic scanner of pressure (ESOP) has been developed by NASA Ames Research Center for installation in wind tunnel models. An ESOP system consists of up to 20 pressure modules (PMs), each with 48 pressure transducers and a heater, an analog-to-digital (A/D) converter module, a microprocessor, a data controller, a monitor unit, a control and processing unit, and a heater controller. The PMs and the A/D converter module are sized to be installed in the models tested in the Ames Aerodynamics Division wind tunnels. A unique feature of the pressure module is the lack of moving parts such as a pneumatic switch used in other systems for in situ calibrations. This paper describes the ESOP system and the results of the initial testing of the system. The initial results indicate the system meets the original design goal of 0.15 percent accuracy.

  10. Nonlinear model predictive control of floating wind turbines with individual pitch control

    OpenAIRE

    Raach, Steffen; Schlipf, David; Sandner, Frank; Matha, Denis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2014-01-01

    In this work a nonlinear model predictive controller with individual pitch control for a floating offshore wind turbine is presented. An aerodynamic model of the collective pitch control approach is extended by describing pitching and yawing moments based on rotor disk theory. This extension is implemented in a reduced nonlinear model of the floating wind turbine including disturbance preview of wind speed, linear vertical and horizontal wind shear, and wave height to compute optimal input tr...

  11. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.D.; Jauch, C.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2004-01-01

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create amodel database in different simulation tools......-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). Theinitialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. However, the main attention in this report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of two wind turbine concepts: 1....... This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The reportprovides a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level...

  12. Finite element modeling of the filament winding process using ABAQUS

    OpenAIRE

    Miltenberger, Louis C.

    1992-01-01

    A comprehensive stress model of the filament winding fabrication process, previously implemented in the finite element program, WACSAFE, was implemented using the ABAQUS finite element software package. This new implementation, referred to as the ABWACSAFE procedure, consists of the ABAQUS software and a pre/postprocessing routine that was developed to prepare necessary ABAQUS input files and process ABAQUS displacement results for stress and strain computation. The ABWACSAF...

  13. Modeling and Simulation for Hybrid of PV-Wind system

    OpenAIRE

    Maged N. F. Nashed; Salah G. Ramadan; Abeer A. M. El-Hady; Shawky H. Arafa

    2015-01-01

    The rising consumption rate of fossil fuels causes a significant pollution impact on the atmosphere, unwanted greenhouse gases has drawn worldwide attention towards renewable energy sources. Moreover, in recent year’s generation of electricity using the different types of renewable sources are specifically evaluated in the economical performance of the overall equipment. This paper focuses on the modeling and analysis of a Standalone Photovoltaic (PV)- wind energy hybr...

  14. Signal processing for airborne doppler radar detection of hazardous wind shear as applied to NASA 1991 radar flight experiment data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxa, Ernest G., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Radar data collected during the 1991 NASA flight tests have been selectively analyzed to support research directed at developing both improved as well as new algorithms for detecting hazardous low-altitude windshear. Analysis of aircraft attitude data from several flights indicated that platform stability bandwidths were small compared to the data rate bandwidths which should support an assumption that radar returns can be treated as short time stationary. Various approaches at detection of weather returns in the presence of ground clutter are being investigated. Non-coventional clutter rejection through spectrum mode tracking and classification algorithms is a subject of continuing research. Based upon autoregressive modeling of the radar return time sequence, this approach may offer an alternative to overcome errors in conventional pulse-pair estimates. Adaptive filtering is being evaluated as a means of rejecting clutter with emphasis on low signal-to-clutter ratio situations, particularly in the presence of discrete clutter interference. An analysis of out-of-range clutter returns is included to illustrate effects of ground clutter interference due to range aliasing for aircraft on final approach. Data are presented to indicate how aircraft groundspeed might be corrected from the radar data as well as point to an observed problem of groundspeed estimate bias variation with radar antenna scan angle. A description of how recorded clutter return data are mixed with simulated weather returns is included. This enables the researcher to run controlled experiments to test signal processing algorithms. In the summary research efforts involving improved modelling of radar ground clutter returns and a Bayesian approach at hazard factor estimation are mentioned.

  15. Impact of wind power in autonomous power systems—power fluctuations—modelling and control issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Margaris, Ioannis D.; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2011-01-01

    for diesel and steam generation plants are applied. The power grid, including speed governors, automatic voltage regulators, protection system and loads is modelled in the same platform. Results for different load and wind profile cases are being presented for the case study of the island Rhodes, in Greece......This paper describes a detailed modelling approach to study the impact of wind power fluctuations on the frequency control in a non-interconnected system with large-scale wind power. The approach includes models for wind speed fluctuations, wind farm technologies, conventional generation...... technologies, power system protection and load. Analytical models for wind farms with three different wind turbine technologies, namely Doubly Fed Induction Generator, Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator and Active Stall Induction Generator-based wind turbines, are included. Likewise, analytical models...

  16. Trailing edge noise model applied to wind turbine airfoils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertagnolio, F.

    2008-01-15

    The aim of this work is firstly to provide a quick introduction to the theory of noise generation that are relevant to wind turbine technology with focus on trailing edge noise. Secondly, the socalled TNO trailing edge noise model developed by Parchen [1] is described in more details. The model is tested and validated by comparing with other results from the literature. Finally, this model is used in the optimization process of two reference airfoils in order to reduce their noise signature: the RISOE-B1-18 and the S809 airfoils. (au)

  17. Dynamic Modeling of Wind Turbine Gearboxes and Experimental Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rune

    is presented. The model takes into account the effects of load and applied grinding corrections. The results are verified by comparing to simulated and experimental results reported in the existing literature. Using gear data loosely based on a 1 MW wind turbine gearbox, the gear mesh stiffness is expanded...... analysis in relation to gear dynamics. A multibody model of two complete 2.3MWwind turbine gearboxes mounted back-to-back in a test rig is built. The mean values of the proposed gear mesh stiffnesses are included. The model is validated by comparing with calculated and measured eigenfrequencies and mode...

  18. Data Mining Methods to Generate Severe Wind Gust Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subana Shanmuganathan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Gaining knowledge on weather patterns, trends and the influence of their extremes on various crop production yields and quality continues to be a quest by scientists, agriculturists, and managers. Precise and timely information aids decision-making, which is widely accepted as intrinsically necessary for increased production and improved quality. Studies in this research domain, especially those related to data mining and interpretation are being carried out by the authors and their colleagues. Some of this work that relates to data definition, description, analysis, and modelling is described in this paper. This includes studies that have evaluated extreme dry/wet weather events against reported yield at different scales in general. They indicate the effects of weather extremes such as prolonged high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and severe wind gusts. Occurrences of these events are among the main weather extremes that impact on many crops worldwide. Wind gusts are difficult to anticipate due to their rapid manifestation and yet can have catastrophic effects on crops and buildings. This paper examines the use of data mining methods to reveal patterns in the weather conditions, such as time of the day, month of the year, wind direction, speed, and severity using a data set from a single location. Case study data is used to provide examples of how the methods used can elicit meaningful information and depict it in a fashion usable for management decision making. Historical weather data acquired between 2008 and 2012 has been used for this study from telemetry devices installed in a vineyard in the north of New Zealand. The results show that using data mining techniques and the local weather conditions, such as relative pressure, temperature, wind direction and speed recorded at irregular intervals, can produce new knowledge relating to wind gust patterns for vineyard management decision making.

  19. Field Validation of IEC 61400-27-1 Wind Generation Type 3 Model with Plant Power Factor Controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Göksu, Ömer; Altin, Müfit; Fortmann, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Generic electrical simulation models of wind power generation have been developed as standards, such as the IEC 61400-27-1, to be used by wind industry, system operators, and academia for power system stability studies. In this paper, the IEC type 3 wind turbine model with wind turbine level...... voltage controller and with wind power plant level power factor controller is validated based on field measurements from a 52-MW wind power plant. In addition to the validation of the IEC type 3 wind turbine and wind power plant controller models, a comparison of the validation approaches, which...... of the reference wind power plant model are given....

  20. Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

    2016-04-01

    1. Introduction Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are functional for giving information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Several mesoscale models and families of models are being used, and each often contains thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. To remedy this problem and for evaluating the capabilities of mesoscale models to estimate site wind conditions, a tailored benchmarking study has been co-organized by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the European Energy Research Alliance Joint Programme Wind Energy (EERA JP WIND). EWEA hosted results and ensured that participants were anonymous. The blind evaluation was performed at the Wind Energy Department of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) with the following objectives: (1) To highlight common issues on mesoscale modelling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and (2) To identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. 2. Approach Three experimental sites were selected: FINO 3 (offshore, GE), Høvsore (coastal, DK), and Cabauw (land-based, NL), and three other sites without observations based on . The three mast sites were chosen because the availability of concurrent suitable time series of vertical profiles of winds speed and other surface parameters. The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, etc., at various vertical heights for a complete year. The methodology used to derive the time series was left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a brief description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and

  1. SAR Observation and Modeling of Gap Winds in the Prince William Sound of Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Volz

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Alaska’s Prince William Sound (PWS is a unique locale tending to have strong gap winds, especially in the winter season. To characterize and understand these strong surface winds, which have great impacts on the local marine and aviation activities, the surface wind retrieval from the Synthetic Aperture Radar data (SAR-wind is combined with a numerical mesoscale model. Helped with the SAR-wind observations, the mesoscale model is used to study cases of strong winds and relatively weak winds to depict the nature of these winds, including the area of extent and possible causes of the wind regimes. The gap winds from the Wells Passage and the Valdez Arm are the most dominant gap winds in PWS. Though the Valdez Arm is north-south trending and Wells Passage is east-west oriented, gap winds often develop simultaneously in these two places when a low pressure system is present in the Northern Gulf of Alaska. These two gap winds often converge at the center of PWS and extend further out of the Sound through the Hinchinbrook Entrance. The pressure gradients imposed over these areas are the main driving forces for these gap winds. Additionally, the drainage from the upper stream glaciers and the blocking effect of the banks of the Valdez Arm probably play an important role in enhancing the gap wind.

  2. A semi-parametric generalization of the Cox proportional hazards regression model: Inference and Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devarajan, Karthik; Ebrahimi, Nader

    2011-01-01

    The assumption of proportional hazards (PH) fundamental to the Cox PH model sometimes may not hold in practice. In this paper, we propose a generalization of the Cox PH model in terms of the cumulative hazard function taking a form similar to the Cox PH model, with the extension that the baseline cumulative hazard function is raised to a power function. Our model allows for interaction between covariates and the baseline hazard and it also includes, for the two sample problem, the case of two Weibull distributions and two extreme value distributions differing in both scale and shape parameters. The partial likelihood approach can not be applied here to estimate the model parameters. We use the full likelihood approach via a cubic B-spline approximation for the baseline hazard to estimate the model parameters. A semi-automatic procedure for knot selection based on Akaike's Information Criterion is developed. We illustrate the applicability of our approach using real-life data.

  3. Dynamic Modelling of a Wind Farm and Analysis of Its Impact on a Weak Power System

    OpenAIRE

    Suvire, Gastón Orlando; Mercado, Pedro Enrique

    2010-01-01

    In this chapter, the model aspects and the impact of wind power onto a weak power system have been described. A wind system model was presented that takes into account factors such as a rapidly varying turbulence component of the wind and the aerodynamic effects associated to the layout of wind turbines throughout the farm. A test system was used and case studies for different instances of wind farm operation were analyzed, aiming at evaluating the interaction of the wind farm with the power ...

  4. Comparing mixing-length models of the diabatic wind profile over homogeneous terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Gryning, Sven-Erik; Hasager, Charlotte Bay

    2010-01-01

    within a wide range of atmospheric stability conditions, which allows a comparison of the models with the average wind profile computed in seven stability classes, showing a better agreement than compared to the traditional surface-layer wind profile. The wind profile is measured by combining cup......Models of the diabatic wind profile over homogeneous terrain for the entire atmospheric boundary layer are developed using mixing-length theory and are compared to wind speed observations up to 300 m at the National Test Station for Wind Turbines at Høvsøre, Denmark. The measurements are performed...

  5. Mixed H2/H∞ Pitch Control of Wind Turbine with a Markovian Jump Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lin, Zhongwei; Liu, Jizhen; Wu, Qiuwei

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a Markovian jump model and the corresponding H2 /H∞ control strategy for the wind turbine driven by the stochastic switching wind speed, which can be used to regulate the generator speed in order to harvest the rated power while reducing the fatigue loads on the mechanical side...... of wind turbine. Through sampling the low-frequency wind speed data into separate intervals, the stochastic characteristic of the steady wind speed can be represented as a Markov process, while the high-frequency wind speed in the each interval is regarded as the disturbance input. Then, the traditional...... operating points of wind turbine can be divided into separate subregions correspondingly, where the model parameters and the control mode can be fixed in each mode. Then, the mixed H2 /H∞ control problem is discussed for such a class of Markovian jump wind turbine working above the rated wind speed...

  6. A high performance finite element model for wind farm modeling in forested areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Herbert; Avila, Matias; Folch, Arnau; Cosculluela, Luis; Prieto, Luis

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy has grown significantly during the past decade and is expected to continue growing in the fight against climate change. In the search for new land where the impact of the wind turbines is small several wind farms are currently being installed in forested areas. In order to optimize the distribution of the wind turbines within the wind farm the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes equations are solved over the domain of interest using either commercial or in house codes. The existence of a canopy alters the Atmospheric Boundary Layer wind profile close to the ground. Therefore in order to obtain a more accurate representation of the flow in forested areas modification to both the Navier Stokes and turbulence variables equations need to be introduced. Several existing canopy models have been tested in an academic problem showing that the one proposed by Sogachev et. al gives the best results. This model has been implemented in an in house CFD solver named Alya. It is a high performance unstructured finite element code that has been designed from scratch to be able to run in the world's biggest supercomputers. Its scalabililty has recently been tested up to 100000 processors in both American and European supercomputers. During the past three years the code has been tuned and tested for wind energy problems. Recent efforts have focused on the canopy model following industry needs. In this work we shall benchmark our results in a wind farm that is currently being designed by Scottish Power and Iberdrola in Scotland. This is a very interesting real case with extensive experimental data from five different masts with anemometers at several heights. It is used to benchmark both the wind profiles and the speed up obtained between different masts. Sixteen different wind directions are simulated. The numerical model provides very satisfactory results for both the masts that are affected by the canopy and those that are not influenced by it.

  7. Numerical simulation of the aerodynamic field in complex terrain wind farm based on actuator disk model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Chang; Li, Chen Qi; Han, Xing Xing

    2015-01-01

    Study on the aerodynamic field in complex terrain is significant to wind farm micro-sitting and wind power prediction. This paper modeled the wind turbine through an actuator disk model, and solved the aerodynamic field by CFD to study the influence of meshing, boundary conditions and turbulence ...

  8. Utilization Probability Map for Migrating Bald Eagles in Northeastern North America: A Tool for Siting Wind Energy Facilities and Other Flight Hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mojica, Elizabeth K; Watts, Bryan D; Turrin, Courtney L

    2016-01-01

    Collisions with anthropogenic structures are a significant and well documented source of mortality for avian species worldwide. The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) is known to be vulnerable to collision with wind turbines and federal wind energy guidelines include an eagle risk assessment for new projects. To address the need for risk assessment, in this study, we 1) identified areas of northeastern North America utilized by migrating bald eagles, and 2) compared these with high wind-potential areas to identify potential risk of bald eagle collision with wind turbines. We captured and marked 17 resident and migrant bald eagles in the northern Chesapeake Bay between August 2007 and May 2009. We produced utilization distribution (UD) surfaces for 132 individual migration tracks using a dynamic Brownian bridge movement model and combined these to create a population wide UD surface with a 1 km cell size. We found eagle migration movements were concentrated within two main corridors along the Appalachian Mountains and the Atlantic Coast. Of the 3,123 wind turbines ≥100 m in height in the study area, 38% were located in UD 20, and 31% in UD 40. In the United States portion of the study area, commercially viable wind power classes overlapped with only 2% of the UD category 20 (i.e., the areas of highest use by migrating eagles) and 4% of UD category 40. This is encouraging because it suggests that wind energy development can still occur in the study area at sites that are most viable from a wind power perspective and are unlikely to cause significant mortality of migrating eagles. In siting new turbines, wind energy developers should avoid the high-use migration corridors (UD categories 20 & 40) and focus new wind energy projects on lower-risk areas (UD categories 60-100).

  9. Utilization Probability Map for Migrating Bald Eagles in Northeastern North America: A Tool for Siting Wind Energy Facilities and Other Flight Hazards.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth K Mojica

    Full Text Available Collisions with anthropogenic structures are a significant and well documented source of mortality for avian species worldwide. The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus is known to be vulnerable to collision with wind turbines and federal wind energy guidelines include an eagle risk assessment for new projects. To address the need for risk assessment, in this study, we 1 identified areas of northeastern North America utilized by migrating bald eagles, and 2 compared these with high wind-potential areas to identify potential risk of bald eagle collision with wind turbines. We captured and marked 17 resident and migrant bald eagles in the northern Chesapeake Bay between August 2007 and May 2009. We produced utilization distribution (UD surfaces for 132 individual migration tracks using a dynamic Brownian bridge movement model and combined these to create a population wide UD surface with a 1 km cell size. We found eagle migration movements were concentrated within two main corridors along the Appalachian Mountains and the Atlantic Coast. Of the 3,123 wind turbines ≥100 m in height in the study area, 38% were located in UD 20, and 31% in UD 40. In the United States portion of the study area, commercially viable wind power classes overlapped with only 2% of the UD category 20 (i.e., the areas of highest use by migrating eagles and 4% of UD category 40. This is encouraging because it suggests that wind energy development can still occur in the study area at sites that are most viable from a wind power perspective and are unlikely to cause significant mortality of migrating eagles. In siting new turbines, wind energy developers should avoid the high-use migration corridors (UD categories 20 & 40 and focus new wind energy projects on lower-risk areas (UD categories 60-100.

  10. Power System Modeling of 20% Wind-Generated Electricity by 2030: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hand, M.; Blair, N.; Bolinger, M.; Wiser, R.; O' Connell, R.; Hern, T.; Miller, B.

    2008-06-01

    This paper shows the results of the Wind Energy Deployment System model used to estimate the costs and benefits associated with producing 20% of the nation's electricity from wind technology by 2030.

  11. Weichselian Late Pleniglacial surface winds over Northwest and Central Europe: a model-data comparison.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Kasse, C.; Vandenberghe, J.; Lorenz, S.J.

    2007-01-01

    Reconstructions of the Weichselian Late Pleniglacial wind direction in northwest and central Europe are reviewed and compared with palaeoclimate simulations performed with an atmospheric general circulation model. These reconstructions are based on proxy data containing information on former wind

  12. Analytical Model for Mean Flow and Fluxes of Momentum and Energy in Very Large Wind Farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markfort, Corey D.; Zhang, Wei; Porté-Agel, Fernando

    2018-01-01

    As wind-turbine arrays continue to be installed and the array size continues to grow, there is an increasing need to represent very large wind-turbine arrays in numerical weather prediction models, for wind-farm optimization, and for environmental assessment. We propose a simple analytical model for boundary-layer flow in fully-developed wind-turbine arrays, based on the concept of sparsely-obstructed shear flows. In describing the vertical distribution of the mean wind speed and shear stress within wind farms, our model estimates the mean kinetic energy harvested from the atmospheric boundary layer, and determines the partitioning between the wind power captured by the wind turbines and that absorbed by the underlying land or water. A length scale based on the turbine geometry, spacing, and performance characteristics, is able to estimate the asymptotic limit for the fully-developed flow through wind-turbine arrays, and thereby determine if the wind-farm flow is fully developed for very large turbine arrays. Our model is validated using data collected in controlled wind-tunnel experiments, and its usefulness for the prediction of wind-farm performance and optimization of turbine-array spacing are described. Our model may also be useful for assessing the extent to which the extraction of wind power affects the land-atmosphere coupling or air-water exchange of momentum, with implications for the transport of heat, moisture, trace gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and ecologically important oxygen.

  13. Analytical Model for Mean Flow and Fluxes of Momentum and Energy in Very Large Wind Farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markfort, Corey D.; Zhang, Wei; Porté-Agel, Fernando

    2017-08-01

    As wind-turbine arrays continue to be installed and the array size continues to grow, there is an increasing need to represent very large wind-turbine arrays in numerical weather prediction models, for wind-farm optimization, and for environmental assessment. We propose a simple analytical model for boundary-layer flow in fully-developed wind-turbine arrays, based on the concept of sparsely-obstructed shear flows. In describing the vertical distribution of the mean wind speed and shear stress within wind farms, our model estimates the mean kinetic energy harvested from the atmospheric boundary layer, and determines the partitioning between the wind power captured by the wind turbines and that absorbed by the underlying land or water. A length scale based on the turbine geometry, spacing, and performance characteristics, is able to estimate the asymptotic limit for the fully-developed flow through wind-turbine arrays, and thereby determine if the wind-farm flow is fully developed for very large turbine arrays. Our model is validated using data collected in controlled wind-tunnel experiments, and its usefulness for the prediction of wind-farm performance and optimization of turbine-array spacing are described. Our model may also be useful for assessing the extent to which the extraction of wind power affects the land-atmosphere coupling or air-water exchange of momentum, with implications for the transport of heat, moisture, trace gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and ecologically important oxygen.

  14. Wind profile modelling using WAsP and "tall" wind measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floors, Rogier Ralph; Kelly, Mark C.; Troen, Ib

    2015-01-01

    A and B in the geostrophic drag law was taken into account by specifying a mean offset between the thermal and surface geostrophic wind vector and a mean magnitude of the thermal wind vector. Wind lidar and mast measurements from 11 different sites (that were not used in determining the empirical...

  15. Modeling of the Coupled Magnetospheric and Neutral Wind Dynamos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayer, Jeffrey P.

    1997-01-01

    Over the past four years of funding, SRI, in collaboration with the University of Texas at Dallas, has been involved in assessing the influence of thermospheric neutral winds on the electric field and current systems at high latitudes. The initial direction of the project was to perform a set of numerical experiments concerning the contribution of the magnetospheric and neutral wind dynamo processes, under specific boundary conditions, to the polarization electric field and/or the field-aligned current distribution at high latitudes. To facilitate these numerical experiments we developed a numerical scheme that relied on using output from the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIGCM), expanding them in the form of spherical harmonics and solving the dynamo equations spectrally. Once initial calculations were completed, it was recognized that the neutral wind contribution could be significant but its actual contribution to the electric field or currents depended strongly on the generator properties of the magnetosphere. Solutions to this problem are not unique because of the unknown characteristics of the magnetospheric generator, therefore the focus was on two limiting cases. One limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a voltage generator delivering a fixed voltage to the high-latitude ionosphere and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the current system. The second limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a current generator and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the generation of polarization electric fields. This work was completed and presented at the l994 Fall AGU meeting. The direction of the project then shifted to applying the Poynting flux concept to the high-latitude ionosphere. This concept was more attractive as it evaluated the influence of neutral winds on the high-latitude electrodynamics without actually having to determine the generator characteristics of

  16. Benchmarking of wind farm scale wake models in the EERA - DTOC project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Barthelmie, R.J.

    2013-01-01

    Designing offshore wind farms next to existing or planned wind farm clusters has recently become a common practice in the North Sea. These types of projects face unprecedented challenges in term of wind energy siting. The currently ongoing European project FP7 EERA - DTOC (Design Tool for Offshore...... wind farm Clusters) is aiming at providing a new type of model work-flow to address this issue. The wake modeling part of the EERA - DTOC project is to improve the fundamental understanding of wind turbine wakes and modeling. One of these challenges is to create a new kind of wake modeling work......-flow to combine wind farm (micro) and cluster (meso) scale wake models. For this purpose, a benchmark campaign is organized on the existing wind farm wake models available within the project, in order to identify which model would be the most appropriate for this coupling. A number of standardized wake cases...

  17. Do regional weather models contribute to better wind power forecasts? A few Norwegian case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bremnes, John Bjørnar; Giebel, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    In most operational wind power forecasting systems statistical methods are applied to map wind forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models into wind power forecasts. NWP models are complex mathematical models of the atmosphere that divide the earth’s surface into a grid. The spatial...... resolution of this grid determines how accurate meteorological processes can be modeled and thereby also limits forecast quality. In this study, two global and four regional operational NWP models with spatial horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 to 32 km were applied to make wind power forecasts up to 66...... hours ahead for one offshore and two onshore Norwegian wind farms. A statistical meta-Gaussian method was applied to generate both probabilistic and deterministic wind power forecasts based on the NWP model wind forecasts. The experiments showed that the regional NWP models with higher resolution did...

  18. Validation and comparison of aerodynamic modelling approaches for wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blondel, F.; Boisard, R.; Milekovic, M.; Ferrer, G.; Lienard, C.; Teixeira, D.

    2016-09-01

    The development of large capacity Floating Offshore Wind Turbines (FOWT) is an interdisciplinary challenge for the design solvers, requiring accurate modelling of both hydrodynamics, elasticity, servodynamics and aerodynamics all together. Floating platforms will induce low-frequency unsteadiness, and for large capacity turbines, the blade induced vibrations will lead to high-frequency unsteadiness. While yawed inflow conditions are still a challenge for commonly used aerodynamic methods such as the Blade Element Momentum method (BEM), the new sources of unsteadiness involved by large turbine scales and floater motions have to be tackled accurately, keeping the computational cost small enough to be compatible with design and certification purposes. In the light of this, this paper will focus on the comparison of three aerodynamic solvers based on BEM and vortex methods, on standard, yawed and unsteady inflow conditions. We will focus here on up-to-date wind tunnel experiments, such as the Unsteady Aerodynamics Experiment (UAE) database and the MexNext international project.

  19. Scale Adaptive Simulation Model for the Darrieus Wind Turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogowski, K.; Hansen, M. O. L.; Maroński, R.; Lichota, P.

    2016-09-01

    Accurate prediction of aerodynamic loads for the Darrieus wind turbine using more or less complex aerodynamic models is still a challenge. One of the problems is the small amount of experimental data available to validate the numerical codes. The major objective of the present study is to examine the scale adaptive simulation (SAS) approach for performance analysis of a one-bladed Darrieus wind turbine working at a tip speed ratio of 5 and at a blade Reynolds number of 40 000. The three-dimensional incompressible unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are used. Numerical results of aerodynamic loads and wake velocity profiles behind the rotor are compared with experimental data taken from literature. The level of agreement between CFD and experimental results is reasonable.

  20. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-04-01

    Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

  1. Investigation and validation of wake model combinations for large wind farm modelling in neutral atmospheric boundary layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tromeur, E.; Puygrenier, S.; Sanquer, S.

    2016-09-01

    This study is focused on assessing the ability of two refined large wind farm models to describe the disturbance of the neutral atmospheric flow caused by large offshore wind farms. Sensitivity studies of internal boundary layer parameters are carried out. An optimum large wind farm correction is then proposed and combined with two different standard single wake models, the Park and EVM models. The large wind farm wake effect is evaluated and validated against measurements of two offshore wind farms at Horns Rev and Nysted and four standard wake models by computing velocity deficit and normalized power. All large wind farm models proposed were able to capture wake width to some degree and the decrease of power output moving through the wind farm. Despite some uncertainties, this very promising model combinations allows us to take into account the slowdown in large wind farms.

  2. Modelling the costs of natural hazards in games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru-Dan, M.

    2012-04-01

    City are looked for today, including a development at the University of Torino called SimTorino, which simulates the development of the city in the next 20 years. The connection to another games genre as video games, the board games, will be investigated, since there are games on construction and reconstruction of a cathedral and its tower and a bridge in an urban environment of the middle ages based on the two novels of Ken Follett, "Pillars of the Earth" and "World Without End" and also more recent games, such as "Urban Sprawl" or the Romanian game "Habitat", dealing with the man-made hazard of demolition. A review of these games will be provided based on first hand playing experience. In games like "World without End" or "Pillars of the Earth", just like in the recently popular games of Zynga on social networks, construction management is done through providing "building" an item out of stylised materials, such as "stone", "sand" or more specific ones as "nail". Such approach could be used also for retrofitting buildings for earthquakes, in the series of "upgrade", not just for extension as it is currently in games, and this is what our research is about. "World without End" includes a natural disaster not so analysed today but which was judged by the author as the worst of manhood: the Black Death. The Black Death has effects and costs as well, not only modelled through action cards, but also on the built environment, by buildings remaining empty. On the other hand, games such as "Habitat" rely on role playing, which has been recently recognised as a way to bring games theory to decision making through the so-called contribution of drama, a way to solve conflicts through balancing instead of weighting, and thus related to Analytic Hierarchy Process. The presentation aims to also give hints on how to design a game for the problem of earthquake retrofit, translating the aims of the actors in such a process into role playing. Games are also employed in teaching of urban

  3. A study of valley winds using the MIUU meso-scale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergström, Hans; Juuso, Nikolaus

    2006-01-01

    High winds are sometimes found in low-altitude terrain in mountain valleys. The reasons for this and the possibilities to find such sites from modelled wind fields are investigated. The higher-order closure MIUU model developed at Uppsala University is used for a general study of channelling of winds in mountain valleys. The importance of length, width and depth of the valley is investigated. Comparisons are made with wind measurements. Copyright

  4. Recommendations on Model Fidelity for Wind Turbine Gearbox Simulations: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Y.; Keller, J.; La Cava, W.; Austin, J.; Nejad, A. R.; Halse, C.; Bastard, L.; Helsen, J.

    2015-01-01

    This work investigates the minimum level of fidelity required to accurately simulate wind turbine gearboxes using state-of-the-art design tools. Excessive model fidelity including drivetrain complexity, gearbox complexity, excitation sources, and imperfections, significantly increases computational time, but may not provide a commensurate increase in the value of the results. Essential design parameters are evaluated, including the planetary load-sharing factor, gear tooth load distribution, and sun orbit motion. Based on the sensitivity study results, recommendations for the minimum model fidelities are provided.

  5. Three Dimensional Dynamic Model Based Wind Field Reconstruction from Lidar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raach, Steffen; Schlipf, David; Haizmann, Florian; Cheng, Po Wen

    2014-06-01

    Using the inflowing horizontal and vertical wind shears for individual pitch controller is a promising method if blade bending measurements are not available. Due to the limited information provided by a lidar system the reconstruction of shears in real-time is a challenging task especially for the horizontal shear in the presence of changing wind direction. The internal model principle has shown to be a promising approach to estimate the shears and directions in 10 minutes averages with real measurement data. The static model based wind vector field reconstruction is extended in this work taking into account a dynamic reconstruction model based on Taylor's Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis. The presented method provides time series over several seconds of the wind speed, shears and direction, which can be directly used in advanced optimal preview control. Therefore, this work is an important step towards the application of preview individual blade pitch control under realistic wind conditions. The method is tested using a turbulent wind field and a detailed lidar simulator. For the simulation, the turbulent wind field structure is flowing towards the lidar system and is continuously misaligned with respect to the horizontal axis of the wind turbine. Taylor's Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis is taken into account to model the wind evolution. For the reconstruction, the structure is discretized into several stages where each stage is reduced to an effective wind speed, superposed with a linear horizontal and vertical wind shear. Previous lidar measurements are shifted using again Taylor's Hypothesis. The wind field reconstruction problem is then formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem, which minimizes the residual between the assumed wind model and the lidar measurements to obtain the misalignment angle and the effective wind speed and the wind shears for each stage. This method shows good results in reconstructing the wind characteristics of a three dimensional

  6. How Many Model Evaluations Are Required To Predict The AEP Of A Wind Power Plant?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Natarajan, Anand

    2015-01-01

    the traditional binning method with trapezoidal and Simpson's integration rules. The wind farm flow model used in this study is the semi-empirical wake model developed by Larsen [1]. Three test cases are studied: a single turbine, a simple and a real offshore wind power plant. A reduced number of model......Wind farm flow models have advanced considerably with the use of large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations. The main limitation of these techniques is their high computational time requirements; which makes their use for wind farm annual energy production...... (AEP) predictions expensive. The objective of the present paper is to minimize the number of model evaluations required to capture the wind power plant's AEP using stationary wind farm flow models. Polynomial chaos techniques are proposed based on arbitrary Weibull distributed wind speed and Von Misses...

  7. An intercomparison of mesoscale models at simple sites for wind energy applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria

    2017-01-01

    of the output from 25 NWP models is presented for three sites in northern Europe characterized by simple terrain. The models are evaluated sing a number of statistical properties relevant to wind energy and verified with observations. On average the models have small wind speed biases offshore and aloft ( ...Understanding uncertainties in wind resource assessment associated with the use of the output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is important for wind energy applications. A better understanding of the sources of error reduces risk and lowers costs. Here, an intercomparison...... decreases the accuracy of the models, but we found no evidence that using a grid spacing smaller than 3 km is necessary for these simple sites. Applying the models to a simple wind energy offshore wind farm highlights the importance of capturing the correct distributions of wind speed and direction....

  8. A Chance-Constrained Economic Dispatch Model in Wind-Thermal-Energy Storage System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanzhe Hu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As a type of renewable energy, wind energy is integrated into the power system with more and more penetration levels. It is challenging for the power system operators (PSOs to cope with the uncertainty and variation of the wind power and its forecasts. A chance-constrained economic dispatch (ED model for the wind-thermal-energy storage system (WTESS is developed in this paper. An optimization model with the wind power and the energy storage system (ESS is first established with the consideration of both the economic benefits of the system and less wind curtailments. The original wind power generation is processed by the ESS to obtain the final wind power output generation (FWPG. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM distribution is adopted to characterize the probabilistic and cumulative distribution functions with an analytical expression. Then, a chance-constrained ED model integrated by the wind-energy storage system (W-ESS is developed by considering both the overestimation costs and the underestimation costs of the system and solved by the sequential linear programming method. Numerical simulation results using the wind power data in four wind farms are performed on the developed ED model with the IEEE 30-bus system. It is verified that the developed ED model is effective to integrate the uncertain and variable wind power. The GMM distribution could accurately fit the actual distribution of the final wind power output, and the ESS could help effectively decrease the operation costs.

  9. Scaling up from field to region for wind erosion prediction using a field-scale wind erosion model and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobeck, T.M.; Parker, N.C.; Haskell, S.; Guoding, K.

    2000-01-01

    Factors that affect wind erosion such as surface vegetative and other cover, soil properties and surface roughness usually change spatially and temporally at the field-scale to produce important field-scale variations in wind erosion. Accurate estimation of wind erosion when scaling up from fields to regions, while maintaining meaningful field-scale process details, remains a challenge. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the feasibility of using a field-scale wind erosion model with a geographic information system (GIS) to scale up to regional levels and to quantify the differences in wind erosion estimates produced by different scales of soil mapping used as a data layer in the model. A GIS was used in combination with the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ), a field-scale wind erosion model, to estimate wind erosion for two 50 km2 areas. Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery from 1993 with 30 m resolution was used as a base map. The GIS database layers included land use, soils, and other features such as roads. The major land use was agricultural fields. Data on 1993 crop management for selected fields of each crop type were collected from local government agency offices and used to 'train' the computer to classify land areas by crop and type of irrigation (agroecosystem) using commercially available software. The land area of the agricultural land uses was overestimated by 6.5% in one region (Lubbock County, TX, USA) and underestimated by about 21% in an adjacent region (Terry County, TX, USA). The total estimated wind erosion potential for Terry County was about four times that estimated for adjacent Lubbock County. The difference in potential erosion among the counties was attributed to regional differences in surface soil texture. In a comparison of different soil map scales in Terry County, the generalised soil map had over 20% more of the land area and over 15% greater erosion potential in loamy sand soils than did the detailed soil map. As

  10. Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Blahut, J.; P. Horton; Sterlacchini, S.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2010-01-01

    Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of th...

  11. Hydrodynamic modelling of small upland lakes under strong wind forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, L.; French, J.; Burningham, H.

    2012-04-01

    Small lakes (Area Stokes equations using a 3D unstructured mesh and a finite volume scheme. The model is forced by meteorological boundary conditions. Improvements made to the FVCOM code include a new graphical user interface to pre- and post process the model input and results respectively, and a JONSWAT wave model to include the effects of wind-wave induced bottom stresses on lake sediment dynamics. Modelled internal scale waves are validated against summer temperature measurements acquired from a thermistor chain deployed at the deepest part of the lake. Seiche motions were validated using data recorded by high-frequency level sensors around the lake margins, and the velocity field and the circulation patterns were validated using the data recorded by an ADCP and GPS drifters. The model is shown to reproduce the lake hydrodynamics and reveals well-developed seiches at different frequencies superimposed on wind-driven circulation patterns that appear to control the distribution of bottom sediments in this small upland lake.

  12. Modelling Wind Turbine Failures based on Weather Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reder, Maik; Melero, Julio J.

    2017-11-01

    A large proportion of the overall costs of a wind farm is directly related to operation and maintenance (O&M) tasks. By applying predictive O&M strategies rather than corrective approaches these costs can be decreased significantly. Here, especially wind turbine (WT) failure models can help to understand the components’ degradation processes and enable the operators to anticipate upcoming failures. Usually, these models are based on the age of the systems or components. However, latest research shows that the on-site weather conditions also affect the turbine failure behaviour significantly. This study presents a novel approach to model WT failures based on the environmental conditions to which they are exposed to. The results focus on general WT failures, as well as on four main components: gearbox, generator, pitch and yaw system. A penalised likelihood estimation is used in order to avoid problems due to for example highly correlated input covariates. The relative importance of the model covariates is assessed in order to analyse the effect of each weather parameter on the model output.

  13. 3D wake measurements from a scanning wind lidar in combination with a fast wind field reconstruction model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Torben Krogh; Herges, T. G.; Astrup, Poul

    2017-01-01

    -Stokes CFD code “Lincom Cyclop-buster model,”3 the corresponding 3D wind vector field (u, v, w) can be reconstructed under constraints for conservation of mass and momentum. The resulting model calculated line-of-sight projections of the 3D wind velocity vectors will become consistent with the line......High-resolution lidar wake measurements are part of an ongoing field campaign being conducted at the Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility1 by Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory using a customized scanning “DTU SpinnerLidar”2 from the Technical...... University of Denmark. The purpose of the SpinnerLidar measurements at SWIFT is to measure the response of a V27 turbine wake to varying inflow conditions and turbine operating states. Although our fast scanning SpinnerLidar is able to measure the line-of-sight projected wind speed at up to 400 points per...

  14. Fatigue Reliability and Effective Turbulence Models in Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Frandsen, S.; Tarp-Johansen, N.J.

    2007-01-01

    Offshore wind farms with 100 or more wind turbines are expected to be installed many places during the next years. Behind a wind turbine a wake is formed where the mean wind speed decreases slightly and the turbulence intensity increases significantly. This increase in turbulence intensity in wakes...

  15. Modelling renewable electric resources: A case study of wind

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernow, S.; Biewald, B.; Hall, J.; Singh, D. [Tellus Institute, Boston, MA (United States)

    1994-07-01

    The central issue facing renewables in the integrated resource planning process is the appropriate assessment of the value of renewables to utility systems. This includes their impact on both energy and capacity costs (avoided costs), and on emissions and environmental impacts, taking account of the reliability, system characteristics, interactions (in dispatch), seasonality, and other characteristics and costs of the technologies. These are system-specific considerations whose relationships may have some generic implications. In this report, we focus on the reliability contribution of wind electric generating systems, measured as the amount of fossil capacity they can displace while meeting the system reliability criterion. We examine this issue for a case study system at different wind characteristics and penetration, for different years, with different system characteristics, and with different modelling techniques. In an accompanying analysis we also examine the economics of wind electric generation, as well as its emissions and social costs, for the case study system. This report was undertaken for the {open_quotes}Innovative IRP{close_quotes} program of the U.S. Department of Energy, and is based on work by both Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and Tellus Institute, including America`s Energy Choices and the UCS Midwest Renewables Project.

  16. Dynamical and statistical-dynamical modelling of wind farm flows with WRF

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2016-01-01

    A pledge to increase the share of renewable energies has led to a focus on offshore wind energy in many western European countries. With an increasing number of offshore wind farms to be installed it becomes important to understand (I) the degree to which wakes from neighbouring wind farms affect...... the power production of a target wind farm and (II) how large wind farms can get if they are to remain efficient and productive power generators. The modelling of wind farm wake flows is challenging, since it includes processes from the micro- to mesoscale meteorology. We use the Weather Research...

  17. The suitability of the IEC 61400-2 wind model for small wind turbines operating in the built environment★

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Samuel P.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the applicability of the assumed wind fields in International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC standard 61400 Part 2, the design standard for small wind turbines, for a turbine operating in the built environment, and the effects these wind fields have on the predicted performance of a 5 kW Aerogenesis turbine using detailed aeroelastic models developed in Fatigue Aerodynamics Structures and Turbulence (FAST. Detailed wind measurements were acquired at two built environment sites: from the rooftop of a Bunnings Ltd. warehouse at Port Kennedy (PK (Perth, Australia and from the small wind turbine site at the University of Newcastle at Callaghan (Newcastle, Australia. For both sites, IEC 61400-2 underestimates the turbulence intensity for the majority of the measured wind speeds. A detailed aeroelastic model was built in FAST using the assumed wind field from IEC 61400-2 and the measured wind fields from PK and Callaghan as an input to predict key turbine performance parameters. The results of this analysis show a modest increase in the predicted mean power for the higher turbulence regimes of PK and Callaghan as well as higher variation in output power. Predicted mean rotor thrust and blade flapwise loading showed a minor increase due to higher turbulence, with mean predicted torque almost identical but with increased variations due to higher turbulence. Damage equivalent loading for the blade flapwise moment was predicted to be 58% and 11% higher for a turbine operating at Callaghan and PK respectively, when compared with IEC 61400-2 wind field. Time series plots for blade flapwise moments and power spectral density plots in the frequency domain show consistently higher blade flapwise bending moments for the Callaghan site with both the sites showing a once-per-revolution response.

  18. Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul

    2017-12-01

    Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

  19. ARIMA-Based Time Series Model of Stochastic Wind Power Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Pedersen, Troels; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic wind power model based on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process. The model takes into account the nonstationarity and physical limits of stochastic wind power generation. The model is constructed based on wind power measurement of one year from...... the Nysted offshore wind farm in Denmark. The proposed limited-ARIMA (LARIMA) model introduces a limiter and characterizes the stochastic wind power generation by mean level, temporal correlation and driving noise. The model is validated against the measurement in terms of temporal correlation...... and probability distribution. The LARIMA model outperforms a first-order transition matrix based discrete Markov model in terms of temporal correlation, probability distribution and model parameter number. The proposed LARIMA model is further extended to include the monthly variation of the stochastic wind power...

  20. A classical model wind turbine wake “blind test” revisited by remote sensing lidars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sjöholm, Mikael; Angelou, Nikolas; Nielsen, Morten Busk

    2017-01-01

    One of the classical model wind turbine wake “blind test” experiments1 conducted in the boundary-layer wind tunnel at NTNU in Trondheim and used for benchmarking of numerical flow models has been revisited by remote sensing lidars in a joint experiment called “Lidars For Wind Tunnels” (L4WT) under...... steering of two wedge-shaped prisms and a translational motor stage for the focusing of the light. In addition, a small telescope (Lidic) was placed inside the wind tunnel and connected to the WindScanner steering system allowing for synchronized measurements. The diameter of the model turbine studied...

  1. Experimental study on the wind-turbine wake meandering inside a scale model wind farm placed in an atmospheric-boundary-layer wind tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coudou, N.; Buckingham, S.; van Beeck, J.

    2017-05-01

    Increasing use of wind energy over the years results in more and larger clustered wind farms. It is therefore fundamental to have an in-depth knowledge of wind-turbine wakes, and especially a better understanding of the well-known but less understood wake-meandering phenomenon which causes the wake to move as a whole in both horizontal and vertical directions as it is convected downstream. This oscillatory motion of the wake is crucial for loading on downstream turbines because it increases fatigue loads and in particular yaw loads. In order to address this phenomenon, experimental investigations were carried out in an atmospheric-boundary-layer wind tunnel using a 3 × 3 scaled wind farm composed of three-bladed rotating wind-turbine models subject to a neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) corresponding to a slightly rough terrain, i.e. to offshore conditions. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements were performed in a horizontal plane, at hub height, in the wake of the three wind turbines in the wind-farm centreline. From the PIV velocity fields obtained, the wake-centrelines were determined and a spectral analysis was performed to obtain the characteristics of the wake-meandering phenomenon. In addition, Hot-Wire Anemometry (HWA) measurements were performed in the wakes of the same wind turbines to validate the PIV results. The spectral analysis performed with the spatial and temporal signals obtained from PIV and HWA measurements respectively, led to Strouhal numbers St = fD/Uhub ≃ 0.20 - 0.22.

  2. An engineering model for hazard prediction of ammunition magazine doors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voort, M.M. van der; Conway, R.; Kummer, P.O.; Rakvåg, K.; Weerheijm, J.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental explosion in an ammunition magazine may break-up the structure and cause a significant debris hazard. Experimental and theoretical research mainly focusses on the break-up of the reinforced concrete or brick magazine walls. The behaviour of the door has usually been ignored in the

  3. Modeling the Benchmark Active Control Technology Wind-Tunnel Model for Application to Flutter Suppression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waszak, Martin R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes the formulation of a model of the dynamic behavior of the Benchmark Active Controls Technology (BACT) wind-tunnel model for application to design and analysis of flutter suppression controllers. The model is formed by combining the equations of motion for the BACT wind-tunnel model with actuator models and a model of wind-tunnel turbulence. The primary focus of this paper is the development of the equations of motion from first principles using Lagrange's equations and the principle of virtual work. A numerical form of the model is generated using values for parameters obtained from both experiment and analysis. A unique aspect of the BACT wind-tunnel model is that it has upper- and lower-surface spoilers for active control. Comparisons with experimental frequency responses and other data show excellent agreement and suggest that simple coefficient-based aerodynamics are sufficient to accurately characterize the aeroelastic response of the BACT wind-tunnel model. The equations of motion developed herein have been used to assist the design and analysis of a number of flutter suppression controllers that have been successfully implemented.

  4. Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

  5. Comparing offshore wind farm wake observed from satellite SAR and wake model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bay Hasager, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    are modeled by various types of wake models. In the EERA DTOC project the model suite consists of engineering models (Ainslie, DWM, GLC, PARK, WASP/NOJ), simplified CFD models (FUGA, FarmFlow), full CFD models (CRES-flowNS, RANS), mesoscale model (SKIRON, WRF) and coupled meso-scale and microscale models. The comparison analysis between the satellite wind wake and model results will be presented and discussed. It is first time a comprehensive analysis is performed on this subject. The topic gains increasing importance because there is a growing need to precisely model also mid- and far-field wind farms wakes for development and planning of offshore wind farm clusters.

  6. Summary Report: The Shadow effect of large wind farms: measurements, data analysis and modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Sten Tronæs; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Rathmann, Ole

    : • Measurements were carried out at the Nysted and Horns Rev demonstration wind farms for several years. Doing so included design, installation and operation of the measurement system • A data base was built from the incoming data. The data have been organized to facilitate verification of the models developed......It was the goal of the project – by means of data from the demonstration wind farms Horns Rev and Nysted, analyses of these data and modelling – to facilitate prediction of the power losses from a wind farm should a new wind farm be built upwind relative to the prevailing wind direction....... Or conversely, predict with adequate accuracy the production of a new wind farm built downwind of an existing wind farm. The project should be seen in the perspective of the two existing demonstration wind farms that extend 5-10 km in each direction. In order to e.g. use the existing electrical infrastructure...

  7. Short-Term Wind Speed Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bias Correcting Study and Its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingfei Niu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The accuracy of wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. In particular, reliable short-term wind speed forecasting can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed, the forecasting of wind speed data using different patterns is difficult. This paper proposes a novel combination bias correcting forecasting method, which includes the combination forecasting method and forecasting bias correcting model. The forecasting result shows that the combination bias correcting forecasting method can more accurately forecast the trend of wind speed and has a good robustness.

  8. Modelling and control of variable speed wind turbines for power system studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michalke, Gabriele; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2010-01-01

    and implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. Important issues like the fault ride-through and grid support capabilities of these wind turbine concepts are addressed. The paper reveals that advanced control of variable speed wind turbines can improve power system stability. Finally......Modern wind turbines are predominantly variable speed wind turbines with power electronic interface. Emphasis in this paper is therefore on the modelling and control issues of these wind turbine concepts and especially on their impact on the power system. The models and control are developed......, it will be shown in the paper that wind parks consisting of variable speed wind turbines can help nearby connected fixed speed wind turbines to ride-through grid faults. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  9. Documentation, User Support, and Verification of Wind Turbine and Plant Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Zavadil; Vadim Zheglov; Yuriy Kazachkov; Bo Gong; Juan Sanchez; Jun Li

    2012-09-18

    As part of the Utility Wind Energy Integration Group (UWIG) and EnerNex's Wind Turbine Modeling Project, EnerNex has received ARRA (federal stimulus) funding through the Department of Energy (DOE) to further the progress of wind turbine and wind plant models. Despite the large existing and planned wind generation deployment, industry-standard models for wind generation have not been formally adopted. Models commonly provided for interconnection studies are not adequate for use in general transmission planning studies, where public, non-proprietary, documented and validated models are needed. NERC MOD (North American Electric Reliability Corporation) reliability standards require that power flow and dynamics models be provided, in accordance with regional requirements and procedures. The goal of this project is to accelerate the appropriate use of generic wind turbine models for transmission network analysis by: (1) Defining proposed enhancements to the generic wind turbine model structures that would allow representation of more advanced; (2) Comparative testing of the generic models against more detailed (and sometimes proprietary) versions developed by turbine vendors; (3) Developing recommended parameters for the generic models to best mimic the performance of specific commercial wind turbines; (4) Documenting results of the comparative simulations in an application guide for users; (5) Conducting technology transfer activities in regional workshops for dissemination of knowledge and information gained, and to engage electric power and wind industry personnel in the project while underway; (6) Designing of a "living" homepage to establish an online resource for transmission planners.

  10. An Experimental Investigation of FNN Model for Wind Speed Forecasting Using EEMD and CS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhou Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With depletion of traditional energy and increasing environmental problems, wind energy, as an alternative renewable energy, has drawn more and more attention internationally. Meanwhile, wind is plentiful, clean, and environmentally friendly; moreover, its speed is a very important piece of information needed in the operations and planning of the wind power system. Therefore, choosing an effective forecasting model with good performance plays a quite significant role in wind power system. A hybrid CS-EEMD-FNN model is firstly proposed in this paper for multistep ahead prediction of wind speed, in which EEMD is employed as a data-cleaning method that aims to remove the high frequency noise embedded in the wind speed series. CS optimization algorithm is used to select the best parameters in the FNN model. In order to evaluate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed hybrid model, three other short-term wind speed forecasting models, namely, FNN model, EEMD-FNN model, and CS-FNN model, are carried out to forecast wind speed using data measured at a typical site in Shandong wind farm, China, over three seasons in 2011. Experimental results demonstrate that the developed hybrid CS-EEMD-FNN model outperforms other models with more accuracy, which is suitable to wind speed forecasting in this area.

  11. Wind laws for shockless initialization. [numerical forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Shkoller, B.

    1976-01-01

    A system of diagnostic equations for the velocity field, or wind laws, was derived for each of a number of models of large-scale atmospheric flow. The derivation in each case is mathematically exact and does not involve any physical assumptions not already present in the prognostic equations, such as nondivergence or vanishing of derivatives of the divergence. Therefore, initial states computed by solving these diagnostic equations should be compatible with the type of motion described by the prognostic equations of the model and should not generate initialization shocks when inserted into the model. Numerical solutions of the diagnostic system corresponding to a barotropic model are exhibited. Some problems concerning the possibility of implementing such a system in operational numerical weather prediction are discussed.

  12. Design and Study of a Low-Cost Laboratory Model Digital Wind Power Meter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Rugmini; Karthika, S.

    2010-01-01

    A vane-type low-cost laboratory model anemometer cum power meter is designed and constructed for measuring low wind energy created from accelerating fluids. The constructed anemometer is a device which records the electrical power obtained by the conversion of wind power using a wind sensor coupled to a DC motor. It is designed for its…

  13. Review of dWindDS Model Initial Results; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baring-Gould, Ian; Gleason, Michael; Preus, Robert; Sigrin, Ben

    2015-06-17

    The dWindDS model analyses the market diffusion of distributed wind generation for behind the meter applications. It is consumer decision based and uses a variety of data sets including a high resolution wind data set. It projects market development through 2050 based on input on specified by the user. This presentation covers some initial runs with draft base case assumptions.

  14. Model Borne Data Management System for Wind Tunnel Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-11-01

    AD-A276 296 WL-TR-93-3 125 MODEL BORNE DATA MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR WIND TUNNEL TESTING PHASE II SBIR FINAL REPORT Lee F. Webster T.S. Paige TeSCO , Inc...DIRECTORATE AEROMECHANICS DIVISION, WL/FIMH TeSCO -TR-93-1 WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH 45433-7936 9. SPONSOR-.NG/MOn!TOR!NG AGENCY NM.ME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10...INTRODUCTION TeSCO , Inc., with support from Wright Patterson Air Force Base, has developed and demonstrated new techniques and data acquisition hardware

  15. Digital Control System For Wind-Tunnel Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoadley, Sherwood T.; Mcgraw, Sandra

    1995-01-01

    Multiple functions performed by multiple coordinated processors for real-time control. Multiple input, multiple-output, multiple-function digital control system developed for wind-tunnel model of advanced fighter airplane with actively controlled flexible wings. Digital control system provides flexibility in selection of control laws, sensors, and actuators, plus some redundancy to accommodate failures in some of its subsystems. Implements feedback control scheme providing simultaneously for suppression of flutter, control of roll angle, roll-rate tracking during maximized roll maneuvers, and alleviation of loads during roll maneuvers.

  16. Wind turbine noise propagation modelling: An unsteady approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlas, Emre; Zhu, Wei Jun; Shen, Wen Zhong

    2016-01-01

    of unsteady flow around it and time dependent source characteristics. For the acoustics modelling we employ the Parabolic Equation (PE) method while Large Eddy Simulation (LES) as well as synthetically generated turbulence fields are used to generate the medium flow upon which sound propagates. Unsteady...... acoustic simulations are carried out for three incoming wind shear and various turbulence intensities, using a moving source approach to mimic the rotating turbine blades. The focus of the present paper is to study the near and far field amplitude modulation characteristics and time evolution of Sound...

  17. Wind turbine fatigue damage evaluation based on a linear model and a spectral method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tibaldi, Carlo; Henriksen, Lars Christian; Hansen, Morten Hartvig

    2015-01-01

    presents a method to estimate wind turbine fatigue damage suited for optimization design applications. The method utilizes a high-order linear wind turbine model. The model comprehends a detailed description of the wind turbine and the controller. The fatigue is computed with a spectral method applied......Wind turbine multidisciplinary design optimization is currently the focus of several investigations because it has showed potential in reducing the cost of energy. This design approach requires fast methods to evaluate wind turbine loads with a sufficiently high level of fidelity. This paper...... to power spectral densities of wind turbine sensor responses to turbulent wind. In this paper, the model is validated both in time domain and frequency domain with a nonlinear aeroservoelastic model. The approach is compared quantitatively against fatigue damage obtained from the power spectra of time...

  18. Comparison of aerodynamic models for Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simão Ferreira, C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Barone, M.; Roscher, B.; Deglaire, P.; Arduin, I.

    2014-06-01

    Multi-megawatt Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs) are experiencing an increased interest for floating offshore applications. However, VAWT development is hindered by the lack of fast, accurate and validated simulation models. This work compares six different numerical models for VAWTS: a multiple streamtube model, a double-multiple streamtube model, the actuator cylinder model, a 2D potential flow panel model, a 3D unsteady lifting line model, and a 2D conformal mapping unsteady vortex model. The comparison covers rotor configurations with two NACA0015 blades, for several tip speed ratios, rotor solidity and fixed pitch angle, included heavily loaded rotors, in inviscid flow. The results show that the streamtube models are inaccurate, and that correct predictions of rotor power and rotor thrust are an effect of error cancellation which only occurs at specific configurations. The other four models, which explicitly model the wake as a system of vorticity, show mostly differences due to the instantaneous or time averaged formulation of the loading and flow, for which further research is needed.

  19. An OSSE on Mesoscale Model Assimilation of Simulated HIRAD-Observed Hurricane Surface Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albers, Cerese; Miller, Timothy; Uhlhorn, Eric; Krishnamurti, T. N.

    2012-01-01

    The hazards of landfalling hurricanes are well known, but progress on improving the intensity forecasts of these deadly storms at landfall has been slow. Many cite a lack of high-resolution data sets taken inside the core of a hurricane, and the lack of reliable measurements in extreme conditions near the surface of hurricanes, as possible reasons why even the most state-of-the-art forecasting models cannot seem to forecast intensity changes better. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for observing hurricanes, and is operated and researched by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in partnership with the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida, the University of Michigan, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. This instrument?s purpose is to study the wind field of a hurricane, specifically observing surface wind speeds and rain rates, in what has traditionally been the most difficult areas for other instruments to study; the high wind and heavy rain regions. Dr. T. N. Krishnamurti has studied various data assimilation techniques for hurricane and monsoon rain rates, and this study builds off of results obtained from utilizing his style of physical initializations of rainfall observations, but obtaining reliable observations in heavy rain regions has always presented trouble to our research of high-resolution rainfall forecasting. Reliable data from these regions at such a high resolution and wide swath as HIRAD provides is potentially very valuable to mesoscale forecasting of hurricane intensity. This study shows how the data assimilation technique of Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to incorporate wind, and later rain rate, data into a mesoscale model forecast of hurricane intensity. The study makes use of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) with a simulated

  20. MODELING OF THE WIND VELOCITY FIELD – RENEWABLE SOURCES OF ENERGY IN KRASNODAR REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Kiseleva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of the potential of wind energy in the Krasnodar region obtained by mapping the wind speed at the height of 50, 80 and 100 meters. The technique of modeling, based on the global experience of assessing the potential of wind energy, including data on the average annual wind speed at the meteorological network and estimates of surface roughness . The algorithm for automated mapping.

  1. Investigation of a Hybrid Winding Concept for Toroidal Inductors using 3D Finite Element Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Henrik; Andersen, Thomas; Mønster, Jakob Døllner

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates a hybrid winding concept for a toroidal inductor by simulating the winding resistance as a function of frequency. The problem of predicting the resistance of a non-uniform and complex winding shape is solved using 3D Finite Element Modeling. A prototype is built and tested...... experimentally to verify the simulation results. Finally COMSOL LiveLink to CAD is utilized to highlight a bottleneck for this kind of winding scheme....

  2. Aspects of Using CFD for Wind Comfort Modeling Around Tall Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Andersen, Lars

    2008-01-01

    The Light*House complex is investigated for uncomfortable wind climate and dangerous winds at pedestrian level. A CFD model is used for simulating the wind effect for 12 different directions and correlated to the wind statistics of a nearby meteorological station. Comparing to practical standards...... for safety and comfort, the results indicates that the building is safe for pedestrians. However, when designing surrounding builds, care shall be taken to avoid interaction between buildings....

  3. Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model

    OpenAIRE

    Haixiang Zang; Lei Fan; Mian Guo; Zhinong Wei; Guoqiang Sun; Li Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EE...

  4. Computer models used to support cleanup decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; DePhillips, M.P.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1992-07-01

    Massive efforts are underway to cleanup hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the US To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no Agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) Identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes; and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study.

  5. Model for vortex turbulence with discontinuities in the solar wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. P. Verkhoglyadova

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A model of vortex with embedded discontinuities in plasma flow is developed in the framework of ideal MHD in a low b plasma. Vortex structures are considered as a result of 2-D evolution of nonlinear shear Alfvén waves in the heliosphere. Physical properties of the solutions and vector fields are analyzed and the observational aspects of the model are discussed. The ratio of normal components to the discontinuity Br /Vr can be close to -2. The alignment between velocity and magnetic field vectors takes place. Spacecraft crossing such vortices will typically observe a pair of discontinuities, but with dissimilar properties. Occurrence rate for different discontinuity types is estimated and agrees with observations in high-speed solar wind stream. Discontinuity crossing provides a backward rotation of magnetic field vector and can be observed as part of a backward arc. The Ulysses magnetometer data obtained in the fast solar wind are compared with the results of theoretical modelling.

  6. Towards a Wind Turbine Wake Reduced-Order Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Nicholas; Viggiano, Bianca; Calaf, Marc; Tutkun, Murat; Cal, Raúl Bayoán

    2017-11-01

    A reduced-order model for a wind turbine wake is sought for prediction and control. Basis functions from the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) represent the spatially coherent turbulence structures in the wake; eigenvalues delineate the turbulence kinetic energy associated with each mode. Back-projecting the POD modes onto the velocity snapshots produces coefficients that express the amplitude of each mode in time. A reduced-order model of the wind turbine wake (wakeROM) is defined through a series of polynomial parameters that quantify mode interaction and the evolution of each mode coefficient. Tikhonov regularization is employed to recalibrate the dynamical system, reducing error in the modeled mode coefficients and adding stability to the system. The wakeROM is periodically reinitialized by relating the incoming turbulent velocity to the POD mode coefficients. A high-level view of the wakeROM provides as a platform to discuss promising research direction, alternate processes that will enhance stability, and portability to control methods. NSF- ECCS-1032647, NSF-CBET-1034581, Research Council of Norway Project Number 231491.

  7. The Triple Spar campaign: Model tests of a 10MW floating wind turbine with waves, wind and pitch control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredmose, Henrik; Lemmer, F.; Borg, Michael Borg

    2017-01-01

    Results of a test campaign for a floating wind turbine in simultaneous wind and wave forcing at scale 1:60 are presented. The floater is the Triple Spar floater, a hybrid between a spar buoy and a semi submersible tri-floater, tested here for the first time. The turbine is a model scale version...... of the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine, which, also for the first time, is tested with active blade pitch control. The tests focus on the effects of aerodynamic damping and interaction effects between the wind forcing, wave forcing and the blade pitch control algorithm. Special focus is devoted...... to the instability of the platform pitch natural mode, that can occur if a standard land-based controller is applied....

  8. Nonspherical Radiation Driven Wind Models Applied to Be Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arauxo, F. X.

    1990-11-01

    ABSTRACT. In this work we present a model for the structure of a radiatively driven wind in the meridional plane of a hot star. Rotation effects and simulation of viscous forces were included in the motion equations. The line radiation force is considered with the inclusion of the finite disk correction in self-consistent computations which also contain gravity darkening as well as distortion of the star by rotation. An application to a typical BlV star leads to mass-flux ratios between equator and pole of the order of 10 and mass loss rates in the range 5.l0 to Mo/yr. Our envelope models are flattened towards the equator and the wind terminal velocities in that region are rather high (1000 Km/s). However, in the region near the star the equatorial velocity field is dominated by rotation. RESUMEN. Se presenta un modelo de la estructura de un viento empujado radiativamente en el plano meridional de una estrella caliente. Se incluyeron en las ecuaciones de movimiento los efectos de rotaci6n y la simulaci6n de fuerzas viscosas. Se consider6 la fuerza de las lineas de radiaci6n incluyendo la correcci6n de disco finito en calculos autoconsistentes los cuales incluyen oscurecimiento gravitacional asi como distorsi6n de la estrella por rotaci6n. La aplicaci6n a una estrella tipica BlV lleva a cocientes de flujo de masa entre el ecuador y el polo del orden de 10 de perdida de masa en el intervalo 5.l0 a 10 Mo/ano. Nuestros modelos de envolvente estan achatados hacia el ecuador y las velocidads terminales del viento en esa regi6n son bastante altas (1000 Km/s). Sin embargo, en la regi6n cercana a la estrella el campo de velocidad ecuatorial esta dominado por la rotaci6n. Key words: STARS-BE -- STARS-WINDS

  9. Fault diagnostics in power transformer model winding for different alpha values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Kusumadevi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Transient overvoltages appearing at line terminal of power transformer HV windings can cause failure of winding insulation. The failure can be from winding to ground or between turns or sections of winding. In most of the cases, failure from winding to ground can be detected by changes in the wave shape of surge voltage appearing at line terminal. However, detection of insulation failure between turns may be difficult due to intricacies involved in identifications of faults. In this paper, simulation investigations carried out on a power transformer model winding for identifying faults between turns of winding has been reported. The power transformer HV winding has been represented by 8 sections, 16 sections and 24 sections. Neutral current waveform has been analyzed for same model winding represented by different number of sections. The values of α (‘α’ value is the square root of total ground capacitance to total series capacitance of winding considered for windings are 5, 10 and 20. Standard lightning impulse voltage (1.2/50 μs wave shape have been considered for analysis. Computer simulations have been carried out using software PSPICE version 10.0. Neutral current and frequency response analysis methods have been used for identification of faults within sections of transformer model winding.

  10. Bayes estimation of the mixture of hazard-rate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, K.K.; Krishna, Hare; Singh, Bhupendra

    1997-01-01

    Engineering systems are subject to continuous stresses and shocks which may (or may not) cause a change in the failure pattern of the system with unknown probability q( =1 - p), 0 < p < 1. Conceptualising a mixture of hazard-rate or failure-rate patterns representing a realistic situation, the failure time distribution is given in the corresponding case. Classical and Bayesian estimation of the parameters and reliability characteristics of this failure time distribution is the subject matter of the present study.

  11. Multibody Model for Planetary Gearbox of 500 kW Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Martin Felix; Pedersen, Niels Leergaard; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

    The aim of the work is to simulate the loadings in a planetary gearbox of a wind turbine using a multibody program. A realistic wind turbine gearbox of a 500 kW wind turbine is examined using turbulent inflow data. An aeroelastic model of the wind turbine has been set up using the FLEX5-code...... the gearbox fatigue loads, the effect of wind turbulence on the power production/output torque on the highspeed shaft and for calibration and verification of the gearbox model....

  12. Dynamic model of frequency control in Danish power system with large scale integration of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basit, Abdul; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2013-01-01

    This work evaluates the impact of large scale integration of wind power in future power systems when 50% of load demand can be met from wind power. The focus is on active power balance control, where the main source of power imbalance is an inaccurate wind speed forecast. In this study, a Danish...... power system model with large scale of wind power is developed and a case study for an inaccurate wind power forecast is investigated. The goal of this work is to develop an adequate power system model that depicts relevant dynamic features of the power plants and compensates for load generation...

  13. Occupational hazard evaluation model underground coal mine based on unascertained measurement theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Quanlong; Jiang, Zhongan; Sun, Yaru; Peng, Ya

    2017-05-01

    In order to study how to comprehensively evaluate the influence of several occupational hazard on miners’ physical and mental health, based on unascertained measurement theory, occupational hazard evaluation indicator system was established to make quantitative and qualitative analysis. Determining every indicator weight by information entropy and estimating the occupational hazard level by credible degree recognition criteria, the evaluation model was programmed by Visual Basic, applying the evaluation model to occupational hazard comprehensive evaluation of six posts under a coal mine, and the occupational hazard degree was graded, the evaluation results are consistent with actual situation. The results show that dust and noise is most obvious among the coal mine occupational hazard factors. Excavation face support workers are most affected, secondly, heading machine drivers, coal cutter drivers, coalface move support workers, the occupational hazard degree of these four types workers is II mild level. The occupational hazard degree of ventilation workers and safety inspection workers is I level. The evaluation model could evaluate underground coal mine objectively and accurately, and can be employed to the actual engineering.

  14. Atmospheric Probe Model: Construction and Wind Tunnel Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Jerald M.

    1998-01-01

    The material contained in this document represents a summary of the results of a low speed wind tunnel test program to determine the performance of an atmospheric probe at low speed. The probe configuration tested consists of a 2/3 scale model constructed from a combination of hard maple wood and aluminum stock. The model design includes approximately 130 surface static pressure taps. Additional hardware incorporated in the baseline model provides a mechanism for simulating external and internal trailing edge split flaps for probe flow control. Test matrix parameters include probe side slip angle, external/internal split flap deflection angle, and trip strip applications. Test output database includes surface pressure distributions on both inner and outer annular wings and probe center line velocity distributions from forward probe to aft probe locations.

  15. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A.D.; Iov, F.; Soerensen, Poul.; Cutululis, N.; Jauch, C.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2007-08-15

    This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risoe-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database built-op and developed during several national research projects, carried out at Risoe DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy and Aalborg University, in the period 2001-2007. The overall objective of these projects was to create a wind turbine model database able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. The main attention in the report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of the following wind turbine concepts: (1) Fixed speed active stall wind turbine concept (2) Variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept (3) Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine

  16. Application of a wind-wave-current coupled model in the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean sea), for wind energy purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    María Palomares, Ana; Navarro, Jorge; Grifoll, Manel; Pallares, Elena; Espino, Manuel

    2016-04-01

    This work shows the main results of the HAREAMAR project (including HAREMAR, ENE2012-38772-C02-01 and DARDO, ENE2012-38772-C02-02 projects), concerning the local Wind, Wave and Current simulation at St. Jordi Bay (NW Mediterranean Sea). Offshore Wind Energy has become one of the main topics within the research in Wind Energy research. Although there are quite a few models with a high level of reliability for wind simulation and prediction in onshore places, the wind prediction needs further investigations for adaptation to the Offshore emplacements, taking into account the interaction atmosphere-ocean. The main problem in these ocean areas is the lack of wind data, which neither allows for characterizing the energy potential and wind behaviour in a particular place, nor validating the forecasting models. The main objective of this work is to reduce the local prediction errors, in order to make the meteo-oceanographic hindcast and forecast more reliable. The COAWST model (Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave Sediment Transport Model; Warner et al., 2010) system has been implemented in the region considering a set of downscaling nested meshes to obtain high-resolution outputs in the region. The adaptation to this particular area, combining the different wind, wave and ocean model domains has been far from simple, because the grid domains for the three models differ significantly. This work shows the main results of the COAWST model implementation to this particular area, including both monthly and other set of tests in different atmospheric situations, especially chosen for their particular interest. The time period considered for the validation is the whole year 2012. A comparative study between the WRF, SWAN and ROMS model outputs (without coupling), the COWAST model outputs, and a buoy measurements moored in the region was performed for this year. References Warner, J.C., Armstrong, B., He, R., and Zambon, J.B., 2010, Development of a Coupled Ocean

  17. A multi-state model for wind farms considering operational outage probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Lin; Liu, Manjun; Sun, Yuanzhang

    2013-01-01

    developed by considering the following factors: running time, operating environment, operating conditions, and wind speed fluctuations. A multi-state model for wind farms is also established. Numerical results illustrate that the proposed model can be well applied to power system reliability assessment......As one of the most important renewable energy resources, wind power has drawn much attention in recent years. The stochastic characteristics of wind speed lead to generation output uncertainties of wind energy conversion system (WECS) and affect power system reliability, especially at high wind...... power penetration levels. Therefore, a more comprehensive analysis toward WECS as well as an appropriate reliability assessment model are essential for maintaining the reliable operation of power systems. In this paper, the impact of wind turbine outage probability on system reliability is firstly...

  18. Statistical modelling of space-time processes with application to wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzi, Amanda

    . This thesis aims at contributing to the wind power literature by building and evaluating new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations and lead times using spatio-temporal information. By exploring the features of a rich portfolio of wind farms in western Denmark, we investigate...... different types of models and provide several forms of predictions. Starting with spatial prediction, we then extend the methodology to spatio-temporal prediction of individual wind farms and aggregated wind power at monitored locations as well as at locations where recent observations are not available. We...... propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial...

  19. Prediction models for wind speed at turbine locations in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas; Soltani, Mohsen

    2011-01-01

    In wind farms, individual turbines disturb the wind field by generating wakes that influence other turbines in the farm. From a control point of view, there is an interest in dynamic optimization of the balance between fatigue and production, and an understanding of the relationship between turbine....... Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  20. Wind Power Curve Modeling Using Statistical Models: An Investigation of Atmospheric Input Variables at a Flat and Complex Terrain Wind Farm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bulaevskaya, V. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Irons, Z. [Enel Green Power North America, Andover, MA (United States); Qualley, G. [Infigen Energy, Dallas, TX (United States); Newman, J. F. [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Miller, W. O. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-09-28

    The goal of our FY15 project was to explore the use of statistical models and high-resolution atmospheric input data to develop more accurate prediction models for turbine power generation. We modeled power for two operational wind farms in two regions of the country. The first site is a 235 MW wind farm in Northern Oklahoma with 140 GE 1.68 turbines. Our second site is a 38 MW wind farm in the Altamont Pass Region of Northern California with 38 Mitsubishi 1 MW turbines. The farms are very different in topography, climatology, and turbine technology; however, both occupy high wind resource areas in the U.S. and are representative of typical wind farms found in their respective areas.

  1. Foundation stiffness in the linear modeling of wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Chih-Hung; Yu, Chih-Peng; Chen, Yan-Hao; Lai, Jiunnren; Hsu, Keng-Tsang; Cheng, Chia-Chi

    2017-04-01

    Effects of foundation stiffness on the linear vibrations of wind turbine systems are of concerns for both planning and construction of wind turbine systems. Current study performed numerical modeling for such a problem using linear spectral finite elements. The effects of foundation stiffness were investigated for various combinations of shear wave velocity of soil, size of tower base plate, and pile length. Multiple piles are also included in the models such that the foundation stiffness can be analyzed more realistically. The results indicate that the shear wave velocity of soil and the size of tower base plate have notable effects on the dominant frequency of the turbine-tower system. The larger the lateral dimension, the stiffer the foundation. Large pile cap and multiple spaced piles result in higher stiffness than small pile cap and a mono-pile. The lateral stiffness of a mono-pile mainly depends on the shear wave velocity of soil with the exception for a very short pile that the end constraints may affect the lateral vibration of the superstructure. Effective pile length may be determined by comparing the simulation results of the frictional pile to those of the end-bearing pile.

  2. a study of the slope of cox proportional hazard and weibull models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adejumo & Ahmadu

    ABSTRACT. Parametric models require that the distribution of survival time is known and the hazard function is completely specified except for the values of the unknown parameters. These include the Weibull model, the exponential model, and the log-normal model. In this research work, Weibull Model is used for ...

  3. Measurement of unsteady loading and power output variability in a micro wind farm model in a wind tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael F.; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan

    2017-01-01

    Unsteady loading and spatiotemporal characteristics of power output are measured in a wind tunnel experiment of a microscale wind farm model with 100 porous disk models. The model wind farm is placed in a scaled turbulent boundary layer, and six different layouts, varied from aligned to staggered, are considered. The measurements are done by making use of a specially designed small-scale porous disk model, instrumented with strain gages. The frequency response of the measurements goes up to the natural frequency of the model, which corresponds to a reduced frequency of 0.6 when normalized by the diameter and the mean hub height velocity. The equivalent range of timescales, scaled to field-scale values, is 15 s and longer. The accuracy and limitations of the acquisition technique are documented and verified with hot-wire measurements. The spatiotemporal measurement capabilities of the experimental setup are used to study the cross-correlation in the power output of various porous disk models of wind turbines. A significant correlation is confirmed between streamwise aligned models, while staggered models show an anti-correlation.

  4. Analytical Modeling of Wind Farms: A New Approach for Power Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Niayifar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Wind farm power production is known to be strongly affected by turbine wake effects. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a new analytical model for the prediction of wind turbine wakes and the associated power losses in wind farms. The new model is an extension of the one recently proposed by Bastankhah and Porté-Agel for the wake of stand-alone wind turbines. It satisfies the conservation of mass and momentum and assumes a self-similar Gaussian shape of the velocity deficit. The local wake growth rate is estimated based on the local streamwise turbulence intensity. Superposition of velocity deficits is used to model the interaction of the multiple wakes. Furthermore, the power production from the wind turbines is calculated using the power curve. The performance of the new analytical wind farm model is validated against power measurements and large-eddy simulation (LES data from the Horns Rev wind farm for a wide range of wind directions, corresponding to a variety of full-wake and partial-wake conditions. A reasonable agreement is found between the proposed analytical model, LES data, and power measurements. Compared with a commonly used wind farm wake model, the new model shows a significant improvement in the prediction of wind farm power.

  5. Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Blahut

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal, and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy. The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R, developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland. An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise

  6. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sloughter, J. M; Gneiting, Tilmann; Raftery, Adrian E

    2008-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are becoming critical as interest grows in wind as a clean and renewable source of energy, in addition to a wide range of other uses, from aviation to recreational boating...

  7. Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

    2014-06-01

    Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical "downscaling" of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations.

  8. Wind atlas for Egypt: Measurements, micro- and mesoscale modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, N.G.; Hansen, J.C.; Badger, J.

    2006-01-01

    with SRTM 3 elevation data and satellite imagery, provide the means for immediate WAsP wind resource assessments anywhere in Egypt. In addition to the very high wind resource in the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba, the wind atlas has discovered a large region in the Western Desert with a fairly high resource...

  9. Wind load modeling for topology optimization of continuum structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zakhama, R.; Abdalla, M.M.; Gürdal, Z.; Smaoui, H.

    2010-01-01

    Topology optimization of two and three dimensional structures subject to dead and wind loading is considered. The wind loading is introduced into the formulation by using standard expressions for the drag force, and a strategy is devised so that wind pressure is ignored where there is no surface

  10. Analysis of error-prone survival data under additive hazards models: measurement error effects and adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ying; Yi, Grace Y

    2016-07-01

    Covariate measurement error occurs commonly in survival analysis. Under the proportional hazards model, measurement error effects have been well studied, and various inference methods have been developed to correct for error effects under such a model. In contrast, error-contaminated survival data under the additive hazards model have received relatively less attention. In this paper, we investigate this problem by exploring measurement error effects on parameter estimation and the change of the hazard function. New insights of measurement error effects are revealed, as opposed to well-documented results for the Cox proportional hazards model. We propose a class of bias correction estimators that embraces certain existing estimators as special cases. In addition, we exploit the regression calibration method to reduce measurement error effects. Theoretical results for the developed methods are established, and numerical assessments are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of our methods.

  11. Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz

    This thesis presents both an applied study and a theoretical study within the field of control theory. Control theory is an interdisciplinary branch between mathematics and engineering dealing with the manipulation of systems to produce a desired output. The applied study deals with wind turbine...... as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time......-domain constraints on signals. During the last decades several theoretical advances have been made, so that it can handle a wide variety of system structures. In this thesis, the focus is on handling uncertain linear system description. To this end the so-called Youla parameterizations have been used. Two methods...

  12. Reliability model for offshore wind farms; Paalidelighedsmodel for havvindmoelleparker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, P.; Lundtang Paulsen, J.; Lybech Toegersen, M.; Krogh, T. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Raben, N.; Donovan, M.H.; Joergensen, L. [SEAS (Denmark); Winther-Jensen, M.

    2002-05-01

    A method for the prediction of the mean availability for an offshore windfarm has been developed. Factors comprised are the reliability of the single turbine, the strategy for preventive maintenance the climate, the number of repair teams, and the type of boats available for transport. The mean availability is defined as the sum of the fractions of time, where each turbine is available for production. The project has been carried out together with SEAS Wind Technique, and their site Roedsand has been chosen as the example of the work. A climate model has been created based on actual site measurements. The prediction of the availability is done with a Monte Carlo-simulation. Software was developed for the preparation of the climate model from weather measurements as well as for the Monte carlo-simulation. Three examples have been simulated, one with guessed parametres, and the other two with parameters more close to the Roedsand case. (au)

  13. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Stirling

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration, and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g., short-term forecasting. The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  14. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stirling, Mark; Bebbington, Mark; Brenna, Marco; Cronin, Shane; Christophersen, Annemarie; Deligne, Natalia; Hurst, Tony; Jolly, Art; Jolly, Gill; Kennedy, Ben; Kereszturi, Gabor; Lindsay, Jan; Neall, Vince; Procter, Jonathan; Rhoades, David; Scott, Brad; Shane, Phil; Smith, Ian; Smith, Richard; Wang, Ting; White, James D. L.; Wilson, Colin J. N.; Wilson, Tom

    2017-06-01

    We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g. short-term forecasting). The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  15. Numerical Study of Wind Turbine Wake Modeling Based on a Actuator Surface Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Huai-yang; Xu, Chang; Han, Xing Xing

    2017-01-01

    In the Actuator Surface Model (ALM), the turbine blades are represented by porous surfaces of velocity and pressure discontinuities to model the action of lifting surfaces on the flow. The numerical simulation is implemented on FLUENT platform combined with N-S equations. This model is improved...... and far wake of a Nibe A wind turbine, which combines wake velocity, turbulent intensity and vortex structure. Results show that ASM has better prediction accuracy and verify it's feasibility on numerical simulation of wind turbine wake....

  16. Modeling the Benchmark Active Control Technology Wind-Tunnel Model for Active Control Design Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waszak, Martin R.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the formulation of a model of the dynamic behavior of the Benchmark Active Controls Technology (BACT) wind tunnel model for active control design and analysis applications. The model is formed by combining the equations of motion for the BACT wind tunnel model with actuator models and a model of wind tunnel turbulence. The primary focus of this report is the development of the equations of motion from first principles by using Lagrange's equations and the principle of virtual work. A numerical form of the model is generated by making use of parameters obtained from both experiment and analysis. Comparisons between experimental and analytical data obtained from the numerical model show excellent agreement and suggest that simple coefficient-based aerodynamics are sufficient to accurately characterize the aeroelastic response of the BACT wind tunnel model. The equations of motion developed herein have been used to aid in the design and analysis of a number of flutter suppression controllers that have been successfully implemented.

  17. A model checking method for the proportional hazards model with recurrent gap time data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chiung-Yu; Luo, Xianghua; Follmann, Dean A

    2011-07-01

    Recurrent events are the natural outcome in many medical and epidemiology studies. To assess covariate effects on the gaps between consecutive recurrent events, the Cox proportional hazards model is frequently employed in data analysis. The validity of statistical inference, however, depends on the appropriateness of the Cox model. In this paper, we propose a class of graphical techniques and formal tests for checking the Cox model with recurrent gap time data. The building block of our model checking method is an averaged martingale-like process, based on which a class of multiparameter stochastic processes is proposed. This maneuver is very general and can be used to assess different aspects of model fit. Numerical simulations are conducted to examine finite-sample performance, and the proposed model checking techniques are illustrated with data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register.

  18. A survey of modelling methods for high-fidelity wind farm simulations using large eddy simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breton, S-P; Sumner, J; Sørensen, J N; Hansen, K S; Sarmast, S; Ivanell, S

    2017-04-13

    Large eddy simulations (LES) of wind farms have the capability to provide valuable and detailed information about the dynamics of wind turbine wakes. For this reason, their use within the wind energy research community is on the rise, spurring the development of new models and methods. This review surveys the most common schemes available to model the rotor, atmospheric conditions and terrain effects within current state-of-the-art LES codes, of which an overview is provided. A summary of the experimental research data available for validation of LES codes within the context of single and multiple wake situations is also supplied. Some typical results for wind turbine and wind farm flows are presented to illustrate best practices for carrying out high-fidelity LES of wind farms under various atmospheric and terrain conditions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Wind energy in complex terrains'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  19. A survey of modelling methods for high-fidelity wind farm simulations using large eddy simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breton, S.-P.; Sumner, J.; Sørensen, J. N.; Hansen, K. S.; Sarmast, S.; Ivanell, S.

    2017-03-01

    Large eddy simulations (LES) of wind farms have the capability to provide valuable and detailed information about the dynamics of wind turbine wakes. For this reason, their use within the wind energy research community is on the rise, spurring the development of new models and methods. This review surveys the most common schemes available to model the rotor, atmospheric conditions and terrain effects within current state-of-the-art LES codes, of which an overview is provided. A summary of the experimental research data available for validation of LES codes within the context of single and multiple wake situations is also supplied. Some typical results for wind turbine and wind farm flows are presented to illustrate best practices for carrying out high-fidelity LES of wind farms under various atmospheric and terrain conditions. This article is part of the themed issue 'Wind energy in complex terrains'.

  20. Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina

    are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...... a nacelle mounted cup-anemometer. The model setup is based on the downscaled 5MW NREL reference wind turbine. Modifications on the downscaled model to match the actual full-scale wind turbine (mass and natural frequency) are applied. Extreme and mean measured loads from the free wind and the wake sectors...... due to wind-wave misalignment cases is examined. The higher measured net damping is then used in the design process of the sub-structure/foundation for material savings. A detailed ultimate strength, stability strength and fatigue analysis are performed in the baseline and the modified designs...