Verification and implementation of microburst day potential index (MDPI) and wind INDEX (WINDEX) forecasting tools at Cape Canaveral Air Station

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, Mark

1996-01-01

This report details the research, development, utility, verification and transition on wet microburst forecasting and detection the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) did in support of ground and launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The unforecasted wind event on 16 August 1994 of 33.5 ms-1 (65 knots) at the Shuttle Landing Facility raised the issue of wet microburst detection and forecasting. The AMU researched and analyzed the downburst wind event and determined it was a wet microburst event. A program was developed for operational use on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) weather system to analyze, compute and display Theta(epsilon) profiles, the microburst day potential index (MDPI), and wind index (WINDEX) maximum wind gust value. Key microburst nowcasting signatures using the WSR-88D data were highlighted. Verification of the data sets indicated that the MDPI has good potential in alerting the duty forecaster to the potential of wet microburst and the WINDEX values computed from the hourly surface data do have potential in showing a trend for the maximum gust potential. WINDEX should help in filling in the temporal hole between the MDPI on the last Cape Canaveral rawinsonde and the nowcasting radar data tools.

What day-ahead reserves are needed in electric grids with high levels of wind power?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mauch, Brandon; Apt, Jay; Jaramillo, Paulina; Carvalho, Pedro M S

2013-01-01

Day-ahead load and wind power forecasts provide useful information for operational decision making, but they are imperfect and forecast errors must be offset with operational reserves and balancing of (real time) energy. Procurement of these reserves is of great operational and financial importance in integrating large-scale wind power. We present a probabilistic method to determine net load forecast uncertainty for day-ahead wind and load forecasts. Our analysis uses data from two different electric grids in the US with similar levels of installed wind capacity but with large differences in wind and load forecast accuracy, due to geographic characteristics. We demonstrate that the day-ahead capacity requirements can be computed based on forecasts of wind and load. For 95% day-ahead reliability, this required capacity ranges from 2100 to 5700 MW for ERCOT, and 1900 to 4500 MW for MISO (with 10 GW of installed wind capacity), depending on the wind and load forecast values. We also show that for each MW of additional wind power capacity for ERCOT, 0.16–0.30 MW of dispatchable capacity will be used to compensate for wind uncertainty based on day-ahead forecasts. For MISO (with its more accurate forecasts), the requirement is 0.07–0.13 MW of dispatchable capacity for each MW of additional wind capacity. (letter)

Nearshore circulation on a sea breeze dominated beach during intense wind events

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Puleo, Jack A.; DiCosmo, Nick; Allende-Arandía, Ma. Eugenia; Chardón-Maldonado, Patricia; López, José; Figueroa-Espinoza, Bernardo; de Alegria-Arzaburu, Amaia Ruiz; Figlus, Jens; Roberts Briggs, Tiffany M.; de la Roza, Jacobo; Candela, Julio

2017-12-01

A field experiment was conducted on the northern Yucatan coast from April 1 to April 12, 2014 to investigate the role of intense wind events on coastal circulation from the inner shelf to the swash zone. The study area is characterized by a micro-tidal environment, low-energy wave conditions, and a wide and shallow continental shelf. Furthermore, easterly trade winds, local breezes, and synoptic-scale events, associated with the passage of cold-fronts known as Nortes, are ubiquitous in this region. Currents were measured concurrently at different cross-shore locations during both local and synoptic-scale intense wind events to investigate the influence of different forcing mechanisms (i.e., large-scale currents, winds, tides, and waves) on the nearshore circulation. Field observations revealed that nearshore circulation across the shelf is predominantly alongshore-directed (westward) during intense winds. However, the mechanisms responsible for driving instantaneous spatial and temporal current variability depend on the weather conditions and the across-shelf location. During local strong sea breeze events (W > 10 m s-1 from the NE) occurring during spring tide, westward circulation is controlled by the tides, wind, and waves at the inner-shelf, shallow waters, and inside the surf/swash zone, respectively. The nearshore circulation is relaxed during intense land breeze events (W ≈ 9 m s-1 from the SE) associated with the low atmospheric pressure system that preceded a Norte event. During the Norte event (Wmax≈ 15 m s-1 from the NNW), westward circulation dominated outside the surf zone and was correlated to the Yucatan Current, whereas wave breaking forces eastward currents inside the surf/swash zone. The latter finding implies the existence of large alongshore velocity shear at the offshore edge of the surf zone during the Norte event, which enhances mixing between the surf zone and the inner shelf. These findings suggest that both sea breezes and Nortes play

Predictions of local ground geomagnetic field fluctuations during the 7-10 November 2004 events studied with solar wind driven models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Wintoft

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The 7-10 November 2004 period contains two events for which the local ground magnetic field was severely disturbed and simultaneously, the solar wind displayed several shocks and negative Bz periods. Using empirical models the 10-min RMS and at Brorfelde (BFE, 11.67° E, 55.63° N, Denmark, are predicted. The models are recurrent neural networks with 10-min solar wind plasma and magnetic field data as inputs. The predictions show a good agreement during 7 November, up until around noon on 8 November, after which the predictions become significantly poorer. The correlations between observed and predicted log RMS is 0.77 during 7-8 November but drops to 0.38 during 9-10 November. For RMS the correlations for the two periods are 0.71 and 0.41, respectively. Studying the solar wind data for other L1-spacecraft (WIND and SOHO it seems that the ACE data have a better agreement to the near-Earth solar wind during the first two days as compared to the last two days. Thus, the accuracy of the predictions depends on the location of the spacecraft and the solar wind flow direction. Another finding, for the events studied here, is that the and models showed a very different dependence on Bz. The model is almost independent of the solar wind magnetic field Bz, except at times when Bz is exceptionally large or when the overall activity is low. On the contrary, the model shows a strong dependence on Bz at all times.

Identification of zones of strong wind events in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Goliger, Adam M

2002-11-01

Full Text Available This paper summarises the initial stage of development of a wind damage/disaster risk model for South Africa. The aim is to identify the generic zones of various types of strong wind events. The extent of these zones will form the basis...

Counterstreaming solar wind halo electron events on open field lines?

Science.gov (United States)

Gosling, J. T.; Mccomas, D. J.; Phillips, J. L.

1992-01-01

Counterstreaming solar wind halo electron events have been identified as a common 1 AU signature of coronal mass ejection events, and have generally been interpreted as indicative of closed magnetic field topologies, i.e., magnetic loops or flux ropes rooted at both ends in the Sun, or detached plasmoids. In this paper we examine the possibility that these events may instead occur preferentially on open field lines, and that counterstreaming results from reflection or injection behind interplanetary shocks or from mirroring from regions of compressed magnetic field farther out in the heliosphere. We conclude that neither of these suggested sources of counterstreaming electron beams is viable and that the best interpretation of observed counterstreaming electron events in the solar wind remains that of passage of closed field structures.

Observations of neutral winds, wind shears, and wave structure during a sporadic-E/QP event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. F. Larsen

2005-10-01

Full Text Available The second Sporadic E Experiment over Kyushu (SEEK-2 was carried out on 3 August 2002, during an active sporadic-E event that also showed quasi-periodic (QP echoes. Two rockets were launched into the event from Kagoshima Space Center in southern Japan 15 min apart. Both carried a suite of instruments, but the second rocket also released a trimethyl aluminum (TMA trail to measure the neutral winds and turbulence structure. In a number of earlier measurements in similar conditions, large winds and shears that were either unstable or close to instability were observed in the altitude range where the ionization layer occurred. The SEEK-2 wind measurements showed similar vertical structure, but unlike earlier experiments, there was a significant difference between the up-leg and down-leg wind profiles. In addition, wave or billow-like fluctuations were evident in the up-leg portion of the trail, while the lower portion of the down-leg trail was found to have extremely strong turbulence that led to a rapid break-up of the trail. The large east-west gradient in the winds and the strong turbulence have not been observed before. The wind profiles and shears, as well as the qualitative characteristics of the strong turbulence are presented, along with a discussion of the implications of the dynamical features. Keywords. Ionosphere (Mid-latitude ionosphere; Ionospheric irregularities; Electric field and currents

An extreme wind erosion event of the fresh Eyjafjallajökull 2010 volcanic ash.

Science.gov (United States)

Arnalds, Olafur; Thorarinsdottir, Elin Fjola; Thorsson, Johann; Waldhauserova, Pavla Dagsson; Agustsdottir, Anna Maria

2013-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can generate widespread deposits of ash that are subsequently subjected to erosive forces which causes detrimental effects on ecosystems. We measured wind erosion of the freshly deposited Eyjafjallajökull ash at a field site the first summer after the 2010 eruption. Over 30 wind erosion events occurred (June-October) at wind speeds > 10 m s(-1) in each storm with gusts up to 38.7 m s(-1). Surface transport over one m wide transect (surface to 150 cm height) reached > 11,800 kg m(-1) during the most intense storm event with a rate of 1,440 kg m(-1) hr(-1) for about 6½ hrs. This storm is among the most extreme wind erosion events recorded on Earth. The Eyjafjallajökull wind erosion storms caused dust emissions extending several hundred km from the volcano affecting both air quality and ecosystems showing how wind erosion of freshly deposited ash prolongs impacts of volcanic eruptions.

Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) as tracers of solar wind conditions near Saturn: Event lists and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Roussos, E.; Jackman, C. M.; Thomsen, M. F.; Kurth, W. S.; Badman, S. V.; Paranicas, C.; Kollmann, P.; Krupp, N.; Bučík, R.; Mitchell, D. G.; Krimigis, S. M.; Hamilton, D. C.; Radioti, A.

2018-01-01

The lack of an upstream solar wind monitor poses a major challenge to any study that investigates the influence of the solar wind on the configuration and the dynamics of Saturn's magnetosphere. Here we show how Cassini MIMI/LEMMS observations of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) transients, that are both linked to energetic processes in the heliosphere such us Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs), can be used to trace enhanced solar wind conditions at Saturn's distance. SEP protons can be easily distinguished from magnetospheric ions, particularly at the MeV energy range. Many SEPs are also accompanied by strong GCR Forbush Decreases. GCRs are detectable as a low count-rate noise signal in a large number of LEMMS channels. As SEPs and GCRs can easily penetrate into the outer and middle magnetosphere, they can be monitored continuously, even when Cassini is not situated in the solar wind. A survey of the MIMI/LEMMS dataset between 2004 and 2016 resulted in the identification of 46 SEP events. Most events last more than two weeks and have their lowest occurrence rate around the extended solar minimum between 2008 and 2010, suggesting that they are associated to ICMEs rather than CIRs, which are the main source of activity during the declining phase and the minimum of the solar cycle. We also list of 17 time periods ( > 50 days each) where GCRs show a clear solar periodicity ( ∼ 13 or 26 days). The 13-day period that derives from two CIRs per solar rotation dominates over the 26-day period in only one of the 17 cases catalogued. This interval belongs to the second half of 2008 when expansions of Saturn's electron radiation belts were previously reported to show a similar periodicity. That observation not only links the variability of Saturn's electron belts to solar wind processes, but also indicates that the source of the observed periodicity in GCRs may be local. In this case GCR

Wind power forecast

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

2012-07-01

Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

Predictions of local ground geomagnetic field fluctuations during the 7-10 November 2004 events studied with solar wind driven models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Wintoft

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The 7-10 November 2004 period contains two events for which the local ground magnetic field was severely disturbed and simultaneously, the solar wind displayed several shocks and negative B_z periods. Using empirical models the 10-min RMS and at Brorfelde (BFE, 11.67° E, 55.63° N, Denmark, are predicted. The models are recurrent neural networks with 10-min solar wind plasma and magnetic field data as inputs. The predictions show a good agreement during 7 November, up until around noon on 8 November, after which the predictions become significantly poorer. The correlations between observed and predicted log RMS is 0.77 during 7-8 November but drops to 0.38 during 9-10 November. For RMS the correlations for the two periods are 0.71 and 0.41, respectively. Studying the solar wind data for other L1-spacecraft (WIND and SOHO it seems that the ACE data have a better agreement to the near-Earth solar wind during the first two days as compared to the last two days. Thus, the accuracy of the predictions depends on the location of the spacecraft and the solar wind flow direction. Another finding, for the events studied here, is that the and models showed a very different dependence on B_z. The model is almost independent of the solar wind magnetic field B_z, except at times when B_z is exceptionally large or when the overall activity is low. On the contrary, the model shows a strong dependence on B_z at all times.

Assessing Upper-Level Winds on Day-of-Launch

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.

2012-01-01

On the day-or-launch. the 45th Weather Squadron Launch Weather Officers (LWOS) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers to include NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP). During launch operations, the payload launch team sometimes asks the LWO if they expect the upper level winds to change during the countdown but the LWOs did not have the capability to quickly retrieve or display the upper-level observations and compare them to the numerical weather prediction model point forecasts. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a capability in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) that would allow them to plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Kennedy Space Center Doppler Radar Wind Profilers and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station rawinsondes and then overlay model point forecast profiles on the observation profiles to assess the performance of these models and graphically display them to the launch team. The AMU developed an Excel-based capability for the LWOs to assess the model forecast upper-level winds and compare them to observations. They did so by creating a GUI in Excel that allows the LWOs to first initialize the models by comparing the O-hour model forecasts to the observations and then to display model forecasts in 3-hour intervals from the current time through 12 hours.

Simulation and verification of transient events in large wind power installations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, P.; Hansen, A.D.; Christensen, P.; Meritz, M.; Bech, J.; Bak-Jensen, B.; Nielsen, H.

2003-10-01

Models for wind power installations excited by transient events have been developed and verified. A number of cases have been investigated, including comparisons of simulations of a three-phase short circuit, validation with measurements of tripping of single wind turbine, islanding of a group of two wind turbines, and voltage steps caused by tripping of wind turbines and by manual transformer tap-changing. A Benchmark model is also presented, enabling the reader to test own simulation results against results obtained with models developed in EMTDC and DIgSILENT. (au)

Optimized Swinging Door Algorithm for Wind Power Ramp Event Detection: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cui, Mingjian; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony R.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Ke, Deping; Sun, Yuanzhang

2015-08-06

Significant wind power ramp events (WPREs) are those that influence the integration of wind power, and they are a concern to the continued reliable operation of the power grid. As wind power penetration has increased in recent years, so has the importance of wind power ramps. In this paper, an optimized swinging door algorithm (SDA) is developed to improve ramp detection performance. Wind power time series data are segmented by the original SDA, and then all significant ramps are detected and merged through a dynamic programming algorithm. An application of the optimized SDA is provided to ascertain the optimal parameter of the original SDA. Measured wind power data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) are used to evaluate the proposed optimized SDA.

The impact of wind power on APX day-ahead electricity prices in the Netherlands VVM-Intermittency project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nieuwenhout, F.D.J. [ECN Policy Studies, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Brand, A.J. [ECN Wind Energy, Petten (Netherlands)

2013-02-15

A detailed analysis was conducted to assess to what extent availability of wind energy has influenced day-ahead electricity prices in the Netherlands over the period 2006-2009. With a meteorological model, time series of day-ahead wind forecasts were generated, and these were compared with APX-ENDEX day-ahead market prices. Wind energy contributes to only 4% of electricity generation in the Netherlands, but was found to depress average day-ahead market prices by about 5%. With the help of the bid curves on the APX-ENDEX day-ahead market for 2009, a model was developed to assess the impact of increasing levels of wind generation on power prices in the Netherlands. One of the main findings is that the future impact on prices will be less than in the past. With an increase of installed wind capacity from 2200 MW to 6000 MW, average day-ahead prices are expected to be depressed by an additional 6% in case no additional conventional generation is assumed. Taking into account existing government policy on wind and ongoing investments in new conventional power plants, prices in 2016 will be only 3% lower.

Geosynchronous Relativistic Electron Events Associated with High-Speed Solar Wind Streams in 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sungeun Lee

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Recurrent enhancements of relativistic electron events at geosynchronous orbit (GREEs were observed in 2006. These GREE enhancements were associated with high-speed solar wind streams coming from the same coronal hole. For the first six months of 2006, the occurrence of GREEs has 27 day periodicity and the GREEs were enhanced with various flux levels. Several factors have been studied to be related to GREEs: (1 High speed stream, (2 Pc5 ULF wave activity, (3 Southward IMF Bz, (4 substorm occurrence, (5 Whistler mode chorus wave, and (6 Dynamic pressure. In this paper, we have examined the effectiveness about those parameters in selected periods.

Numerical simulation of a mistral wind event occuring

Science.gov (United States)

Guenard, V.; Caccia, J. L.; Tedeschi, G.

2003-04-01

The experimental network of the ESCOMPTE field experiment (june-july 2001) is turned into account to investigate the Mistral wind affecting the Marseille area (South of France). Mistral wind is a northerly flow blowing across the Rhône valley and toward the Mediterranean sea resulting from the dynamical low pressure generated in the wake of the Alps ridge. It brings cold, dry air masses and clear sky conditions over the south-eastern part of France. Up to now, few scientific studies have been carried out on the Mistral wind especially the evolution of its 3-D structure so that its mesoscale numerical simulation is still relevant. Non-hydrostatic RAMS model is performed to better investigate this mesoscale phenomena. Simulations at a 12 km horizontal resolution are compared to boundary layer wind profilers and ground measurements. Preliminary results suit quite well with the Mistral statistical studies carried out by the operational service of Météo-France and observed wind profiles are correctly reproduced by the numerical model RAMS which appears to be an efficient tool for its understanding of Mistral. Owing to the absence of diabatic effect in Mistral events which complicates numerical simulations, the present work is the first step for the validation of RAMS model in that area. Further works will consist on the study of the interaction of Mistral wind with land-sea breeze. Also, RAMS simulations will be combined with aerosol production and ocean circulation models to supply chemists and oceanographers with some answers for their studies.

Lattice Wind Description and Characterization of Mexico City Local Wind Events in the 2001–2006 Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro Salcido

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Urban transformation and expansion in Mexico City continuously affect its urban morphology, and therefore the modes of wind circulation inside it and their occurrence probabilities. Knowledge on these topics is an important issue for urban planning and for other urban studies, such as air quality assessment. In this paper, using a lattice wind model at a meso-β scale, we develop a simple description and characterization of Mexico City local wind events that occurred during the period 2001–2006, including an estimation of the occurrence probabilities. This region was modeled as a 2D lattice domain of identical cells, and wind conditions in each cell were described by four wind attributes: the horizontal velocity components, divergence, and vorticity. Models of one and four cells were applied to wind data furnished by the meteorological network of the city. Results include the following: Early morning: low intensity winds (75% from N, NW, W and SW (75%, convergent (93%, with a slight predominance of cyclonic vorticity (54%. Morning and early afternoon: winds from N, NE and E (72% with speeds from 0.5 to 3.5 m/s, slight prevailing of convergent winds (51%, and slight predominance of cyclonic vorticity (57%. Late afternoon and night: winds blowing from N, NW, and S (63% with speeds from 1.5 to 3.5 m/s (66%, convergent (90%, and cyclonic (72%.

Detecting and characterising ramp events in wind power time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallego, Cristóbal; Cuerva, Álvaro; Costa, Alexandre

2014-01-01

In order to implement accurate models for wind power ramp forecasting, ramps need to be previously characterised. This issue has been typically addressed by performing binary ramp/non-ramp classifications based on ad-hoc assessed thresholds. However, recent works question this approach. This paper presents the ramp function, an innovative wavelet- based tool which detects and characterises ramp events in wind power time series. The underlying idea is to assess a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step, which is obtained by considering large power output gradients evaluated under different time scales (up to typical ramp durations). The ramp function overcomes some of the drawbacks shown by the aforementioned binary classification and permits forecasters to easily reveal specific features of the ramp behaviour observed at a wind farm. As an example, the daily profile of the ramp-up and ramp-down intensities are obtained for the case of a wind farm located in Spain

Solar wind heavy ions from energetic coronal events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bame, S.J.

1978-01-01

Ions heavier than those of He can be resolved in the solar wind with electrostatic E/q analyzers when the local thermal temperatures are low. Ordinarily this condition prevails in the low speed solar wind found between high speed streams, i.e. the interstream, IS, solar wind. Various ions of O, Si and Fe are resolved in IS heavy ion spectra. Relative ion peak intensities indicate that the O ionization state is established in the IS coronal source regions at approx. 2.1 x 10 6 K while the state of Fe is frozen in at approx. 1.5 x 10 6 K farther out. Occasionally, anomalous spectra are observed in which the usually third most prominent ion peak, O 8+ , is depressed as are the Fe peaks ranging from Fe 12+ to Fe 7+ . A prominent peak in the usual Si 8+ position of IS spectra is self-consistently shown to be Fe 16+ . These features demonstrate that the ionization states were frozen in at higher than usual coronal temperatures. The source regions of these hot heavy ion spectra are identified as energetic coronal events including flares and nonflare coronal mass ejections. 24 references

Temporal and spatial variation of maximum wind speed days during the past 20 years in major cities of Xinjiang

Science.gov (United States)

Baidourela, Aliya; Jing, Zhen; Zhayimu, Kahaer; Abulaiti, Adili; Ubuli, Hakezi

2018-04-01

Wind erosion and sandstorms occur in the neighborhood of exposed dust sources. Wind erosion and desertification increase the frequency of dust storms, deteriorate air quality, and damage the ecological environment and agricultural production. The Xinjiang region has a relatively fragile ecological environment. Therefore, the study of the characteristics of maximum wind speed and wind direction in this region is of great significance to disaster prevention and mitigation, the management of activated dunes, and the sustainable development of the region. Based on the latest data of 71 sites in Xinjiang, this study explores the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maximum wind speed in Xinjiang from 1993 to 2013, and highlights the distribution of annual and monthly maximum wind speed and the characteristics of wind direction in Xinjiang. Between 1993 and 2013, Ulugchat County exhibited the highest number of days with the maximum wind speed (> 17 m/s), while Wutian exhibited the lowest number. In Xinjiang, 1999 showed the highest number of maximum wind speed days (257 days), while 2013 showed the lowest number (69 days). Spring and summer wind speeds were greater than those in autumn and winter. There were obvious differences in the direction of maximum wind speed in major cities and counties of Xinjiang. East of the Tianshan Mountains, maximum wind speeds are mainly directed southeast and northeast. North and south of the Tianshan Mountains, they are mainly directed northwest and northeast, while west of the Tianshan Mountains, they are mainly directed southeast and northwest.

Medieval Day at Reynolds: An Interdisciplinary Learning Event

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, Nancy S.

2012-01-01

Medieval Day at Reynolds turned a typical Friday class day into an interdisciplinary learning event, which joined faculty and students into a community of learners. From classrooms issued tales of Viking and Mongol conquests, religious crusaders, deadly plague, and majestic cathedrals and art, all told by costumed faculty members with expertise in…

TAO/TRITON, RAMA, and PIRATA Buoys, 5-Day, 1989-present, Wind Stress

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset has 5-day Wind Stress data from the TAO/TRITON (Pacific Ocean, https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/ ), RAMA (Indian Ocean,...

Tropospheric mid-latitude geopotential wave characteristics associated with strong wind events in the North Atlantic/European region

Science.gov (United States)

Wild, Simon; Simmonds, Ian; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2015-04-01

The variability of strong synoptic scale wind events in the mid-latitudes have long been linked to baroclinic wave activity in the mid troposphere. Previous studies have also shown that greater amplitudes of planetary waves in the mid troposphere are likely to increase the occurrence of regional extremes in temperature and precipitation. In this study we examine whether characteristics of planetary and synoptic mid-latitude waves show systematic anomalies in the North Atlantic/ European region which can be related to the occurrence of a strong surface wind event. We will mainly focus on two questions: 1) Do amplitudes for waves with different wave lengths show a systematic anomaly when a strong wind event occurs? 2) Can phases of the individual wave components be detected that favour strong wind events? In order to decompose the mid-tropospheric flow into longitudinal waves we employ the fast Fourier transform to the meridional mean of the geopotential height in 500hPa between 35° and 60°N for i) the entire latitude belt and ii) for a North Atlantic/European sector (36°W to 36°E). Our definition of strong wind events is based on the Storm Severity Index (SSI) alongside a wind tracking algorithm identifying areas of exceedances of the local 98th percentile of the 10m wind speed. First results using ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 - 2014 for the extended winter season (ONDJFM) for the 50 most intense strong wind systems with respect to the SSI reveal a greater amplitude for all investigated wave numbers. Especially waves with wave lengths below 2000km show an increase of about 25% of the daily standard deviation on average. The distribution of wave phases for the different wave numbers with respect to the location of a strong wind event shows a less homogenous picture. There is however a high proportion of events that can be associated with phases around 3π/4 and 5π/4 of waves with lengths of around 6000km, equivalent to wave number 5 on a planetary scale

Gap winds and their effects on regional oceanography Part II: Kodiak Island, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Ladd, Carol; Cheng, Wei; Salo, Sigrid

2016-10-01

Frequent gap winds, defined here as offshore-directed flow channeled through mountain gaps, have been observed near Kodiak Island in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Gap winds from the Iliamna Lake gap were investigated using QuikSCAT wind data. The influence of these wind events on the regional ocean was examined using satellite and in situ data combined with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model runs. Gap winds influence the entire shelf width (> 200 km) northeast of Kodiak Island and extend an additional 150 km off-shelf. Due to strong gradients in the along-shelf direction, they can result in vertical velocities in the ocean of over 20 m d-1 due to Ekman pumping. The wind events also disrupt flow of the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC), resulting in decreased flow down Shelikof Strait and increased velocities on the outer shelf. This disruption of the ACC has implications for freshwater transport into the Bering Sea. The oceanographic response to gap winds may influence the survival of larval fishes as Arrowtooth Flounder recruitment is negatively correlated with the interannual frequency of gap-wind events, and Pacific Cod recruitment is positively correlated. The frequency of offshore directed winds exhibits a strong seasonal cycle averaging 7 days per month during winter and 2 days per month during summer. Interannual variability is correlated with the Pacific North America Index and shows a linear trend, increasing by 1.35 days per year. An accompanying paper discusses part I of our study (Ladd and Cheng, 2016) focusing on gap-wind events flowing out of Cross Sound in the eastern GOA.

Stochastic coordination of joint wind and photovoltaic systems with energy storage in day-ahead market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomes, I.L.R.; Pousinho, H.M.I.; Melício, R.; Mendes, V.M.F.

2017-01-01

This paper presents an optimal bid submission in a day-ahead electricity market for the problem of joint operation of wind with photovoltaic power systems having an energy storage device. Uncertainty not only due to the electricity market price, but also due to wind and photovoltaic powers is one of the main characteristics of this submission. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem. The optimal bids and the energy flow in the batteries are the first-stage variables and the energy deviation is the second stage variable of the problem. Energy storage is a way to harness renewable energy conversion, allowing the store and discharge of energy at conveniently market prices. A case study with data from the Iberian day-ahead electricity market is presented and a comparison between joint and disjoint operations is discussed. - • Joint wind and PV systems with energy storage. • Electricity markets. • Stochastic optimization. • Day-ahead market.

Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yuanjing

2015-01-01

This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Cornejo-Bueno

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

Prior history of Mistral and Tramontane winds modulates heavy precipitation events in southern France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ségolène Berthou

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events (HPEs are frequent in southern France in autumn. An HPE results from landward transport of low-level moisture from the Western Mediterranean: large potential instability is then released by local convergence and/or orography. In the upstream zone, the sea surface temperature (SST undergoes significant variations at the submonthly time scale primarily driven by episodic highly energetic events of relatively cold outflows from the neighbouring mountain ranges (the Mistral and Tramontane winds. Here, we study the HPE of 22–23 September 1994 which is preceded by a strong SST cooling due to the Mistral and Tramontane winds. This case confirms that the location of the precipitation is modulated by the SST in the upstream zone. In fact, changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes due to SST changes induce pressure and stratification changes which affect the low-level dynamics. Using three companion regional climate simulations running from 1989 to 2009, this article statistically shows that anomalies in the HPEs significantly correlate with the SST anomalies in the Western Mediterranean, and hence with the prior history of Mistral and Tramontane winds. In such cases, the role of the ocean as an integrator of the effect of past wind events over one or several weeks does indeed have an impact on HPEs in southern France.

Side event from the Coordination office at Warsaw: Latest developments on the French Wind Power Market: New rules, new challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassin, Fabrice; Elfassi, Paul; Froeding, Veronique; Petit, Jean-Francois

2010-01-01

At the occasion of the 2010 edition of the European Wind energy Conference (EWEC 2010), the French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a Side event on the latest developments of the French Wind Power Market. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - The new regulatory framework under the 'Grenelle' laws: Wind energy planning. French National Action Plan: the wind energy challenge (Fabrice Cassin); 2 - The upcoming enforcement of the dangerous installations rules (ICPe) to wind power plants (Veronique Froeding); 3 - New tax system for wind energy projects and local acceptance (Jean-Francois Petit)

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers in the Day-ahead Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaolin Liu

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Wind Power Producers (WPPs seek to maximize profit and minimize the imbalance costs when bidding into the day-ahead market, but uncertainties in the hourly available wind and forecasting errors make the bidding risky. This paper assumes that hourly wind power output given by the forecast follows a normal distribution, and proposes three different bidding strategies, i.e., the expected profit-maximization strategy (EPS, the chance-constrained programming-based strategy (CPS and the multi-objective bidding strategy (ECPS. Analytical solutions under the three strategies are obtained. Comparisons among the three strategies are conducted on a hypothetical wind farm which follows the Spanish market rules. Results show that bid under the EPS is highly dependent on market clearing price, imbalance prices, and also the mean value and standard deviation of wind forecast, and that bid under the CPS is largely driven by risk parameters and the mean value and standard deviation of the wind forecast. The ECPS combining both EPS and CPS tends to choose a compromise bid. Furthermore, the ECPS can effectively control the tradeoff between expected profit and target profit for WPPs operating in volatile electricity markets.

Six-day westward propagating wave in the maximum electron density of the ionosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Altadill

2003-07-01

Full Text Available Analyses of time-spatial variations of critical plasma frequency foF2 during the summer of 1998 reveal the existence of an oscillation activity with attributes of a 6-day westward propagating wave. This event manifests itself as a global scale wave in the foF2 of the Northern Hemisphere, having a zonal wave number 2. This event coincides with a 6-day oscillation activity in the meridional neutral winds of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT. The oscillation in neutral winds seems to be linked to the 6–7-day global scale unstable mode westward propagating wave number 1 in the MLT. The forcing mechanisms of the 6-day wave event in the ionosphere from the wave activity in the MLT are discussed.Key words. Ionosphere (Ionosphere-Atmosphere interactions; Mid-latitude Ionosphere – Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (waves and tides

Six-day westward propagating wave in the maximum electron density of the ionosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Altadill

Full Text Available Analyses of time-spatial variations of critical plasma frequency foF2 during the summer of 1998 reveal the existence of an oscillation activity with attributes of a 6-day westward propagating wave. This event manifests itself as a global scale wave in the foF2 of the Northern Hemisphere, having a zonal wave number 2. This event coincides with a 6-day oscillation activity in the meridional neutral winds of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT. The oscillation in neutral winds seems to be linked to the 6–7-day global scale unstable mode westward propagating wave number 1 in the MLT. The forcing mechanisms of the 6-day wave event in the ionosphere from the wave activity in the MLT are discussed.

Key words. Ionosphere (Ionosphere-Atmosphere interactions; Mid-latitude Ionosphere – Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (waves and tides

Day-ahead optimal dispatch for wind integrated power system considering zonal reserve requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Fan; Bie, Zhaohong; Liu, Shiyu; Ding, Tao

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Analyzing zonal reserve requirements for wind integrated power system. • Modeling day-ahead optimal dispatch solved by chance constrained programming theory. • Determining optimal zonal reserve demand with minimum confidence interval. • Analyzing numerical results on test and large-scale real-life power systems. - Abstract: Large-scale integration of renewable power presents a great challenge for day-ahead dispatch to manage renewable resources while provide available reserve for system security. Considering zonal reserve is an effective way to ensure reserve deliverability when network congested, a random day-ahead dispatch optimization of wind integrated power system for a least operational cost is modeled including zonal reserve requirements and N − 1 security constraints. The random model is transformed into a deterministic one based on the theory of chance constrained programming and a determination method of optimal zonal reserve demand is proposed using the minimum confidence interval. After solving the deterministic model, the stochastic simulation is conducted to verify the validity of solution. Numerical tests and results on the IEEE 39 bus system and a large-scale real-life power system demonstrate the optimal day-ahead dispatch scheme is available and the proposed method is effective for improving reserve deliverability and reducing load shedding after large-capacity power outage.

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, Emily B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Elmer, Nicholas J.

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Wind influence on a coastal buoyant outflow

Science.gov (United States)

Whitney, Michael M.; Garvine, Richard W.

2005-03-01

This paper investigates the interplay between river discharge and winds in forcing coastal buoyant outflows. During light winds a plume influenced by the Earth's rotation will flow down shelf (in the direction of Kelvin wave propagation) as a slender buoyancy-driven coastal current. Downwelling favorable winds augment this down-shelf flow, narrow the plume, and mix the water column. Upwelling favorable winds drive currents that counter the buoyancy-driven flow, spread plume waters offshore, and rapidly mix buoyant waters. Two criteria are developed to assess the wind influence on a buoyant outflow. The wind strength index (Ws) determines whether a plume's along-shelf flow is in a wind-driven or buoyancy-driven state. Ws is the ratio of the wind-driven and buoyancy-driven along-shelf velocities. Wind influence on across-shelf plume structure is rated with a timescale (ttilt) for the isopycnal tilting caused by wind-driven Ekman circulation. These criteria are used to characterize wind influence on the Delaware Coastal Current and can be applied to other coastal buoyant outflows. The Delaware buoyant outflow is simulated for springtime high-river discharge conditions. Simulation results and Ws values reveal that the coastal current is buoyancy-driven most of the time (∣Ws∣ Wind events, however, overwhelm the buoyancy-driven flow (∣Ws∣ > 1) several times during the high-discharge period. Strong upwelling events reverse the buoyant outflow; they constitute an important mechanism for transporting fresh water up shelf. Across-shelf plume structure is more sensitive to wind influence than the along-shelf flow. Values of ttilt indicate that moderate or strong winds persisting throughout a day can modify plume width significantly. Plume widening during upwelling events is accompanied by mixing that can erase the buoyant outflow.

U.S. Hail Frequency and the Global Wind Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Gensini, Vittorio A.; Allen, John T.

2018-02-01

Changes in Earth relative atmospheric angular momentum can be described by an index known as the Global Wind Oscillation. This global index accounts for changes in Earth's atmospheric budget of relative angular momentum through interactions of tropical convection anomalies, extratropical dynamics, and engagement of surface torques (e.g., friction and mountain). It is shown herein that U.S. hail events are more (less) likely to occur in low (high) atmospheric angular momentum base states when excluding weak Global Wind Oscillation days, with the strongest relationships found in the boreal spring and fall. Severe, significant severe, and giant hail events are more likely to occur during Global Wind Oscillation phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 during the peak of U.S. severe weather season. Lower frequencies of hail events are generally found in Global Wind Oscillation phases 4-7 but vary based on Global Wind Oscillation amplitude and month. In addition, probabilistic anomalies of atmospheric ingredients supportive of hail producing supercell thunderstorms closely mimic locations of reported hail frequency, helping to corroborate report results.

On the role of tides and strong wind events in promoting summer primary production in the Barents Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Le Fouest, Vincent; Postlethwaite, Clare; Morales Maqueda, Miguel Angel; Bélanger, Simon; Babin, Marcel

2011-11-01

Tides and wind-driven mixing play a major role in promoting post-bloom productivity in subarctic shelf seas. Whether this is also true in the high Arctic remains unknown. This question is particularly relevant in a context of increasing Arctic Ocean stratification in response to global climatic change. We have used a three-dimensional ocean-sea ice-plankton ecosystem model to assess the contribution of tides and strong wind events to summer (June-August 2001) primary production in the Barents Sea. Tides are responsible for 20% (60% locally) of the post-bloom primary production above Svalbard Bank and east of the Kola Peninsula. By contrast, more than 9% of the primary production is due to winds faster than 8 m s -1 in the central Barents Sea. Locally, this contribution reaches 25%. In the marginal ice zone, both tides and wind events have only a limited effect on primary production (central Barents Sea), respectively. When integrated over all Barents Sea sub-regions, tides and strong wind events account, respectively, for 6.8% (1.55 Tg C; 1 Tg C=10 12 g C) and 4.1% (0.93 Tg C) of the post-bloom primary production (22.6 Tg C). To put this in context, this contribution to summer primary production is equivalent to the spring bloom integrated over the Svalbard area. Tides and winds are significant drivers of summer plankton productivity in the Barents Sea.

Multi-Instrument Observations of Prolonged Stratified Wind Layers at Iqaluit, Nunavut

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, Zen; Dehghan, Armin; Gascon, Gabrielle; Joe, Paul; Hudak, David; Strawbridge, Kevin; Corriveau, Julien

2018-02-01

Data collected between October 2015 and May 2016 at Environment and Climate Change Canada's Iqaluit research site (64°N, 69°W) have revealed a high frequency (40% of all days for which observations were available) of stratified wind layer events that occur from near the surface up to about 7.2 km above sea level. These stratified wind layers are clearly visible as wind shifts (90 to 180°) with height in range-height indicator scans from the Doppler lidar and Ka-band radar and in wind direction profiles from the Doppler lidar and radiosonde. During these events, the vertical structure of the flow appears to be a stack of 4 to 10 layers ranging in vertical width from 0.1 to 4.4 km. The stratification events that were observed occurred predominantly (81%) during light precipitation and lasted up to 27.5 h. The integrated measurement platforms at Iqaluit permitted continuous observations of the evolution of stratification events in different meteorological conditions.

Non-Cooperative Regulation Coordination Based on Game Theory for Wind Farm Clusters during Ramping Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qi, Yongzhi; Liu, Yutian; Wu, Qiuwei

2017-01-01

With increasing penetration of wind power in power systems, it is important to track scheduled wind power output as much as possible during ramping events to ensure security of the system. In this paper, a non‐cooperative coordination strategy based on the game theory is proposed for the regulation...... of the regulation revenue function according to the derived Nash equilibrium condition, the ER strategy is the Nash equilibrium of the regulation competition. Case studies were conducted with the power output data of wind farms from State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company Limited of China to demonstrate...

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Folmer, M. J.; Jedlovec, G. J.

2014-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), 32-km North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) interpolated to a 12-km grid, and 13-km Rapid Refresh analyses.

The Use of Red Green Blue Air Mass Imagery to Investigate the Role of Stratospheric Air in a Non-convective Wind Event

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedlovec, G. J.; Molthan, A. L.

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event - The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

Science.gov (United States)

Gosling, J. T.; Asbridge, J. R.; Bame, S. J.; Feldman, W. C.; Zwickl, R. D.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Hynds, R. J.

1981-01-01

An ion velocity distribution function of the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event is obtained from data from the ISEE 2 and ISEE 3 experiments. The distribution function is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV. The ESP event studied (8/27/78) is superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. The observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient so that approximately 1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approximately 290 eV cubic centimeters.

Day-Ahead Coordination of Vehicle-to-Grid Operation and Wind Power in Security Constraints Unit Commitment (SCUC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Javad Abdollahi

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper security constraints unit commitment (SCUC in the presence of wind power resources and electrical vehicles to grid is presented. SCUC operation prepare an optimal time table for generation unit commitment in order to maximize security, minimize operation cost and satisfy the constraints of networks and units in a period of time, as one of the most important research interest in power systems. Today, the relationship between power network and energy storage systems is interested for many researchers and network operators. Using Electrical Vehicles (PEVs and wind power for energy production is one of the newest proposed methods for replacing fossil fuels.One of the effective strategies for analyzing of the effects of Vehicle 2 Grid (V2G and wind power in optimal operation of generation is running of SCUC for power systems that are equipped with V2G and wind power resources. In this paper, game theory method is employed for deterministic solution of day-ahead unit commitment with considering security constraints in the simultaneous presence of V2G and wind power units. This problem for two scenarios of grid-controlled mode and consumer-controlled mode in three different days with light, medium and heavy load profiles is analyzed. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the presence of V2G and wind power for decreasing of generation cost and improving operation indices of power systems.

The Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Elmer, Nicholas

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Evaluating the Impacts of Real-Time Pricing on the Cost and Value of Wind Generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siohansi, Ramteen

2010-01-01

One of the costs associated with integrating wind generation into a power system is the cost of redispatching the system in real-time due to day-ahead wind resource forecast errors. One possible way of reducing these redispatch costs is to introduce demand response in the form of real-time pricing (RTP), which could allow electricity demand to respond to actual real-time wind resource availability using price signals. A day-ahead unit commitment model with day-ahead wind forecasts and a real-time dispatch model with actual wind resource availability is used to estimate system operations in a high wind penetration scenario. System operations are compared to a perfect foresight benchmark, in which actual wind resource availability is known day-ahead. The results show that wind integration costs with fixed demands can be high, both due to real-time redispatch costs and lost load. It is demonstrated that introducing RTP can reduce redispatch costs and eliminate loss of load events. Finally, social surplus with wind generation and RTP is compared to a system with neither and the results demonstrate that introducing wind and RTP into a market can result in superadditive surplus gains.

Multi-event study of high-latitude thermospheric wind variations at substorm onset with a Fabry-Perot interferometer at Tromsoe, Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, H.; Shiokawa, K.; Oyama, S. I.; Otsuka, Y.

2017-12-01

We studied the high-latitude thermospheric wind variations near the onset time of isolated substorms. Substorm-related energy input from the magnetosphere to the polar ionosphere modifies the high-latitude ionosphere and thermosphere. For the first time, this study showed the characteristics of high-latitude thermospheric wind variations at the substorm onset. We also investigated the possibility of these wind variations as a potential trigger of substorm onset by modifying the ionospheric current system (Kan, 1993). A Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI) at Tromsoe, Norway provided wind measurements estimated from Doppler shift of both red-line (630.0 nm for the F region) and green-line (557.7 nm for the E region) emissions of aurora and airglow. We used seven-year data sets obtained from 2009 to 2015 with a time resolution of 13 min. We first identified the onset times of local isolated substorms using ground-based magnetometer data obtained at the Tromsoe and Bear Island stations, which belongs to the IMAGE magnetometer chain. We obtained 4 red-line events and 5 green-line events taken place at different local times. For all these events, the peak locations of westward ionospheric currents identified by the ground-based magnetometer chain were located at the poleward side of Tromsoe. Then, we calculated two weighted averages of wind velocities for 30 min around the onset time and 30 min after the onset time of substorms. We evaluated differences between these two weighted averages to estimate the strength of wind changes. The observed wind changes at these substorm onsets were less than 49 m/s (26 m/s) for red-line (green-line) events, which are much smaller than the typical plasma convection speed. This indicates that the plasma motion caused by substorm-induced thermospheric winds through ion-neutral collisions is a minor effect as the driver of high-latitude plasma convection, as well as the triggering of substorm onset. We discuss possible causes of these

Optimal day-ahead wind-thermal unit commitment considering statistical and predicted features of wind speeds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Yanan; Dong, Jizhe; Ding, Lijuan

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A day–ahead wind–thermal unit commitment model is presented. • Wind speed transfer matrix is formed to depict the sequential wind features. • Spinning reserve setting considering wind power accuracy and variation is proposed. • Verified study is performed to check the correctness of the program. - Abstract: The increasing penetration of intermittent wind power affects the secure operation of power systems and leads to a requirement of robust and economic generation scheduling. This paper presents an optimal day–ahead wind–thermal generation scheduling method that considers the statistical and predicted features of wind speeds. In this method, the statistical analysis of historical wind data, which represents the local wind regime, is first implemented. Then, according to the statistical results and the predicted wind power, the spinning reserve requirements for the scheduling period are calculated. Based on the calculated spinning reserve requirements, the wind–thermal generation scheduling is finally conducted. To validate the program, a verified study is performed on a test system. Then, numerical studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method are conducted.

The 4-5 day mode oscillation in zonal winds of Indian middle atmosphere during MONEX-79

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, R. S.; Mukherjee, B. K.; Indira, K.; Murty, B. V. R.

1985-12-01

In the early studies based on time series of balloon observations, the existence of 4 to 5 day period waves and 10 to 20 day wind fluctuations were found in the tropical lower stratosphere, and they are identified theoretically as the mixed Rossby-gravity wave and the Kelvin wave, respectively. On the basis of these studies, it was established that the vertically propagating equatorial waves play an important role in producing the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) in the mean zonal wind through the mechanism of wave-zonal interaction. These studies are mainly concentrated over the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Similar prominent wave disturbances have been observed over the region east of the Indian Ocean during a quasi-biennial oscillation. Zonal winds in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (10 to 20) km of the middle atmosphere over the Indian subcontinent may bear association with the activity of summer monsoon (June-September). Monsoon Experiment (MONEX-79) has provided upper air observations at Balasore (21 deg. 30 min.N; 85 deg. 56 min.E), during the peak of monsoon months July and August. A unique opportunity has, therefore, been provided to study the normal oscillations present in the zonal winds of lower middle atmosphere over India, which may have implication on large scale wave dynamics. This aspect is examined in the present study.

The importance of wind-flux feedbacks during the November CINDY-DYNAMO MJO event

Science.gov (United States)

Riley Dellaripa, Emily; Maloney, Eric; van den Heever, Susan

2015-04-01

High-resolution, large-domain cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations probing the importance of wind-flux feedbacks to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) convection are performed for the November 2011 CINDY-DYNAMO MJO event. The work is motivated by observational analysis from RAMA buoys in the Indian Ocean and TRMM precipitation retrievals that show a positive correlation between MJO precipitation and wind-induced surface fluxes, especially latent heat fluxes, during and beyond the CINDY-DYNAMO time period. Simulations are done using Colorado State University's Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The domain setup is oceanic and spans 1000 km x 1000 km with 1.5 km horizontal resolution and 65 stretched vertical levels centered on the location of Gan Island - one of the major CINDY-DYNAMO observation points. The model is initialized with ECMWF reanalysis and Aqua MODIS sea surface temperatures. Nudging from ECMWF reanalysis is applied at the domain periphery to encourage realistic evolution of MJO convection. The control experiment is run for the entire month of November so both suppressed and active, as well as, transitional phases of the MJO are modeled. In the control experiment, wind-induced surface fluxes are activated through the surface bulk aerodynamic formula and allowed to evolve organically. Sensitivity experiments are done by restarting the control run one week into the simulation and controlling the wind-induced flux feedbacks. In one sensitivity experiment, wind-induced surface flux feedbacks are completely denied, while in another experiment the winds are kept constant at the control simulations mean surface wind speed. The evolution of convection, especially on the mesoscale, is compared between the control and sensitivity simulations.

Day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch of wind integrated power system considering demand response of residential hybrid energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Yibo; Xu, Jian; Sun, Yuanzhang; Wei, Congying; Wang, Jing; Ke, Deping; Li, Xiong; Yang, Jun; Peng, Xiaotao; Tang, Bowen

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Improving the utilization of wind power by the demand response of residential hybrid energy system. • An optimal scheduling of home energy management system integrating micro-CHP. • The scattered response capability of consumers is aggregated by demand bidding curve. • A stochastic day-ahead economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power. - Abstract: As the installed capacity of wind power is growing, the stochastic variability of wind power leads to the mismatch of demand and generated power. Employing the regulating capability of demand to improve the utilization of wind power has become a new research direction. Meanwhile, the micro combined heat and power (micro-CHP) allows residential consumers to choose whether generating electricity by themselves or purchasing from the utility company, which forms a residential hybrid energy system. However, the impact of the demand response with hybrid energy system contained micro-CHP on the large-scale wind power utilization has not been analyzed quantitatively. This paper proposes an operation optimization model of the residential hybrid energy system based on price response, integrating micro-CHP and smart appliances intelligently. Moreover, a novel load aggregation method is adopted to centralize scattered response capability of residential load. At the power grid level, a day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power is constructed. Furthermore, simulation is conducted respectively on the modified 6-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system. The results show that with the method proposed, the wind power curtailment of the system decreases by 78% in 6-bus system. In the meantime, the energy costs of residential consumers and the operating costs of the power system reduced by 10.7% and 11.7% in 118-bus system, respectively.

Thanks-a-Latte, Seniors: The Library Hosts an Election Day Event

Science.gov (United States)

Repp, Anne

2009-01-01

This article presents the Louisa County High School Library's annual Thanks-a-Latte Day, an event that introduces the American political process to LCHS seniors in a real way. Thanks-a-Latte Day was born from an idea found in a "School Library Journal" article by Charli O'Dell published in 1999. Her basic idea was to promote the school library by…

Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event: The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gosling, J.T.; Asbridge, J.R.; Bame, S.J.; Feldman, W.C.; Zwickl, R.D.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Hynds, R.J.

1981-01-01

Data from the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory/Max-Planck-Institut fast plasma experiment on Isee 2 have been combined with data from the European Space Agency/Imperial College/Space Research Laboratory low-energy proton experiment on Isee 3 to obtain for the first time an ion velocity distribution function f(v) extending from solar wind energies (-1 keV) to 1.6 MeV during the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event. This study reveals that f(v) of the ESP population is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies out to 1.6 MeV. Emerging smoothly out of the solar wind thermal distribution, the ESP f(v) initially falls with increasing energy as E/sup -2.4/ in the solar wind frame. Above about 40 keV no single power law exponent adequately describes the energy dependence of f(v) in the solar wind frame. Above approx.200 keV in both the spacecraft frame and the solar wind frame, f(v) can be described by an exponential in speed (f(v)proportionale/sup -v/v//sub o/) with v/sub o/ = 1.05 x 10 8 cm s -1 . The ESP event studied (August 27, 1978) was superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. Our observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with the shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient that approx.1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approx.290 eV cm -3

Quality-Controlled Wind Data from the Kennedy Space Center 915 Megahertz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Network

Science.gov (United States)

Dryden, Rachel L.

2011-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has installed a five-instrument 915-Megahertz (MHz) Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) system that records atmospheric wind profile properties. The purpose of these profilers is to fill data gaps between the top of the KSC wind tower network and the lowest measurement altitude of the KSC 50-MHz DRWP. The 915-MHz DRWP system has the capability to generate three-dimensional wind data outputs from approximately 150 meters (m) to 6,000 m at roughly 15-minute (min) intervals. NASA s long-term objective is to combine the 915-MHz and 50-MHz DRWP systems to create complete vertical wind profiles up to 18,300 m to be used in trajectory and loads analyses of space vehicles and by forecasters on day-of-launch (DOL). This analysis utilizes automated and manual quality control (QC) processes to remove erroneous and unrealistic wind data returned by the 915-MHz DRWP system. The percentage of data affected by each individual QC check in the period of record (POR) (i.e., January to April 2006) was computed, demonstrating the variability in the amount of data affected by the QC processes. The number of complete wind profiles available at given altitude thresholds for each profiler in the POR was calculated and outputted graphically, followed by an assessment of the number of complete wind profiles available for any profiler in the POR. A case study is also provided to demonstrate the QC process on a day of a known weather event.

Recent changes in frost days events characteristics in Uruguay-Southeastern South America.

Science.gov (United States)

Renom, Madeleine; De Mello, Santiago

2015-04-01

There are few studies about extreme temperature events in Southeastern South America as is it mentioned in the SREX report (2009), although these events generate human health impacts and big economical looses. Southeastern South America is one of the major agricultural production regions worldwide. Particularly in Uruguay, agricultural production represents a high percentage of the GDP and, in the last 15 years there has been a significant increase in the area used for that economic activity. Although frost is not always is considered as an extreme event it causes, in the case of Uruguay, an impact on society, energy consumption and agricultural losses. Previous studies have shown a negative trend in the occurrence of cold nights (TN10) during winter (June-July-August) and autumn (March-April-May) in Uruguay. This work try to determine if these trends affects the occurrences and characteristics of frost days (Tmin< 0°C). Based on a high-quality daily minimum temperature for 11 meteorological stations that cover the period 1950-2009, we analyzed different features of frost days. Long term trends do not present a clear spatial behaviour suggesting that there is a not clear relationship between the percentile based index (TN10) and a fixed index (FD). At monthly scale, May and September show a negative trend, although these months present a low number of cases that difficult the statistical treatment. It is noticeable that from a decadal point of view the last decade (2000-2009) was the decade with fewer occurrences comparing with the rest, while the 90's is the decade that presents more cases. We also analyzed changes in frost period (FP) which commonly extends from May to September. In general all the stations present a decrease in the FP in accordance with the negative trend detected at monthly scale, suggesting a warming in autumn and spring time. Although we detected different behaviour in two stations, one located inner land and the other located on the

Variabilities of mesospheric tides and equatorial electrojet strength during major stratospheric warming events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Sridharan

2009-11-01

Full Text Available The present study demonstrates the relationship between the high latitude northern hemispheric major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW events and the reversal in the afternoon equatorial electrojet (EEJ, often called the counter-electrojet (CEJ, during the winter months of 1998–1999, 2001–2002, 2003–2004 and 2005–2006. As the EEJ current system is driven by tidal winds, an investigation of tidal variabilities in the MF radar observed zonal winds during the winters of 1998–1999 and 2005–2006 at 88 km over Tirunelveli, a site close to the magnetic equator, shows that there is an enhancement of semi-diurnal tidal amplitude during the days of a major SSW event and a suppression of the same immediately after the event. The significance of the present results lies in demonstrating the latitudinal coupling between the high latitude SSW phenomenon and the equatorial ionospheric current system with clear evidence for major SSW events influencing the day-to-day variability of the CEJ.

Long-term variability of dust events in Iceland (1949-2011)

Science.gov (United States)

Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P.; Arnalds, O.; Olafsson, H.

2014-12-01

The long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and interpreted together with earlier results obtained from northeastern (NE) Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust observations. However, frequent volcanic eruptions, with the re-suspension of volcanic materials and dust haze, increased the number of dust events fourfold (135 dust days annually). The position of the Icelandic Low determined whether dust events occurred in the NE (16.4 dust days annually) or in the southern (S) part of Iceland (about 18 dust days annually). The decade with the most frequent dust days in S Iceland was the 1960s, but the 2000s in NE Iceland. A total of 32 severe dust storms (visibility typically warm, occurring during summer/autumn (May-September) and during mild southwesterly winds, while the subarctic dust events (S Iceland) were mainly cold, occurring during winter/spring (March-May) and during strong northeasterly winds. About half of the dust events in S Iceland occurred in winter or at sub-zero temperatures. A good correlation was found between particulate matter (PM10) concentrations and visibility during dust observations at the stations Vík and Stórhöfði. This study shows that Iceland is among the dustiest areas of the world and that dust is emitted year-round.

Using Family Science Day Events to Inspire Future Scientists

Science.gov (United States)

Brevik, Corinne

2015-04-01

Dickinson State University organizes four Family Science Day events each fall to increase student engagement in the sciences. Offered on Saturday afternoons, each event focuses on a different science-related theme. Families can attend these events free of charge, and the kids participate in a large-variety of hands-on activities which center around the event's theme. Previous themes include The Amazing Telescope, Night of the Titanic, Dinosaur Prophecy, and Space Exploration. These events are amazing opportunities to show young children how much fun science can be. Many of the kids come from schools where science is neither interactive nor engaging. The activities help the children learn that science is a process of discovery that helps us better understand the world around us. University students staff all of the activity booths at these events, and this has proven to be a very valuable experience for them as well. Some of the students who help are majoring in a science field, and for them, the experience teaches public communication. They learn to break complicated concepts down into simpler terms that young kids can understand. Other students who help with these events are not science majors but may be taking a science course as part of their college curriculum. For these students, the experience reinforces various concepts that they are learning in their science class. For many of them, it also opens their eyes to the idea that science can be engaging. Some of them even discover that they have a true gift for teaching.

A Three-Stage Birandom Program for Unit Commitment with Wind Power Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Na Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The integration of large-scale wind power adds a significant uncertainty to power system planning and operating. The wind forecast error is decreased with the forecast horizon, particularly when it is from one day to several hours ahead. Integrating intraday unit commitment (UC adjustment process based on updated ultra-short term wind forecast information is one way to improve the dispatching results. A novel three-stage UC decision method, in which the day-ahead UC decisions are determined in the first stage, the intraday UC adjustment decisions of subfast start units are determined in the second stage, and the UC decisions of fast-start units and dispatching decisions are determined in the third stage is presented. Accordingly, a three-stage birandom UC model is presented, in which the intraday hours-ahead forecasted wind power is formulated as a birandom variable, and the intraday UC adjustment event is formulated as a birandom event. The equilibrium chance constraint is employed to ensure the reliability requirement. A birandom simulation based hybrid genetic algorithm is designed to solve the proposed model. Some computational results indicate that the proposed model provides UC decisions with lower expected total costs.

Quantifying uncertainties in wind energy assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Patlakas, Platon; Galanis, George; Kallos, George

2015-04-01

The constant rise of wind energy production and the subsequent penetration in global energy markets during the last decades resulted in new sites selection with various types of problems. Such problems arise due to the variability and the uncertainty of wind speed. The study of the wind speed distribution lower and upper tail may support the quantification of these uncertainties. Such approaches focused on extreme wind conditions or periods below the energy production threshold are necessary for a better management of operations. Towards this direction, different methodologies are presented for the credible evaluation of potential non-frequent/extreme values for these environmental conditions. The approaches used, take into consideration the structural design of the wind turbines according to their lifespan, the turbine failures, the time needed for repairing as well as the energy production distribution. In this work, a multi-parametric approach for studying extreme wind speed values will be discussed based on tools of Extreme Value Theory. In particular, the study is focused on extreme wind speed return periods and the persistence of no energy production based on a weather modeling system/hind cast/10-year dataset. More specifically, two methods (Annual Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold) were used for the estimation of extreme wind speeds and their recurrence intervals. Additionally, two different methodologies (intensity given duration and duration given intensity, both based on Annual Maxima method) were implied to calculate the extreme events duration, combined with their intensity as well as the event frequency. The obtained results prove that the proposed approaches converge, at least on the main findings, for each case. It is also remarkable that, despite the moderate wind speed climate of the area, several consequent days of no energy production are observed.

How uncertain are day-ahead wind forecasts?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grimit, E. [3TIER Environmental Forecast Group, Seattle, WA (United States)

2006-07-01

Recent advances in the combination of weather forecast ensembles with Bayesian statistical techniques have helped to address uncertainties in wind forecasting. Weather forecast ensembles are a collection of numerical weather predictions. The combination of several equally-skilled forecasts typically results in a consensus forecast with greater accuracy. The distribution of forecasts also provides an estimate of forecast inaccuracy. However, weather forecast ensembles tend to be under-dispersive, and not all forecast uncertainties can be taken into account. In order to address these issues, a multi-variate linear regression approach was used to correct the forecast bias for each ensemble member separately. Bayesian model averaging was used to provide a predictive probability density function to allow for multi-modal probability distributions. A test location in eastern Canada was used to demonstrate the approach. Results of the test showed that the method improved wind forecasts and generated reliable prediction intervals. Prediction intervals were much shorter than comparable intervals based on a single forecast or on historical observations alone. It was concluded that the approach will provide economic benefits to both wind energy developers and investors. refs., tabs., figs.

Detection and Modeling of a Meteotsunami in Lake Erie During a High Wind Event on May 27, 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, E. J.; Schwab, D. J.; Lombardy, K. A.; LaPlante, R. E.

2012-12-01

On May 27, 2012, a mesoscale convective system moved southeast across the central basin of Lake Erie (the shallowest of the Great Lakes) causing an increase in surface wind speed from 3 to 15 m/s over a few minutes. Although no significant pressure change was observed during this period (+1 mbar), the storm resulted in 3 reported edge waves on the southern shore (5 minutes apart), with wave heights up to 7 feet (2.13 m). Witnesses along the coast reported that the water receded before the waves hit, the only warning of the impending danger. After impact on the southern shore, several individuals were stranded in the water near Cleveland, Ohio. Fortunately, there were no fatalities or serious injury as a result of the edge waves. The storm event yielded two separate but similar squall line events that impacted the southern shore of Lake Erie several hours apart. The first event had little impact on nearshore conditions, however, the second event (moving south-eastward at 21.1 m/s or 41 knots), resulted in 7 ft waves near Cleveland as reported above. The thunderstorms generated three closely packed outflow boundaries that intersected the southern shore of Lake Erie between 1700 and 1730 UTC. The outflow boundaries were followed by a stronger outflow at 1800 UTC. Radial velocities on the WSR-88D in Cleveland, Ohio indicated the winds were stronger in the second outflow boundary. The radar indicated winds between 20.6 and 24.7 m/s (40 and 48 knots) within 240 meters (800 feet) above ground level. In order to better understand the storm event and the cause of the waves that impacted the southern shore, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Erie has been developed using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The model is being developed as part of the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting (GLCFS), a set of experimental real-time pre-operational hydrodynamic models run at the NOAA Great Lakes Research Laboratory that forecast currents, waves, temperature, and

The Strong Wind event of 24th January 2009 in Catalonia: a social impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Amaro, J.; Aran, M.; Barberia, L.; Llasat, M. C.

2009-09-01

Although strong winds are frequent in Catalonia, one of the events with the strongest impact in recent years was on January 24th 2009. An explosive cyclogenesis process took place in the Atlantic: pressure fell 30 hPa in less than 24 hours. The strong wind storm pounded the northern of Spain and the south of France with some fatalities and important economic losses in these regions. Several automatic weather stations recorded wind gusts higher than 100 km/h in Catalonia. Emergency services received more than 20.000 calls in 24 hours and there were 497 interventions in only 12 hours. As a consequence of fallen and uprooted trees railway and road infrastructures got damages and more than 30.000 customers had no electricity during 24 hours. Unfortunately there were a total of 6 fatalities, two of them because of fallen trees and the other ones when a sports centre collapsed over a group of children. In Spain, insurance policies cover damages due to strong winds when fixed thresholds are overcome and, according to the Royal Decree 300/2004 of 20th February, extraordinary risk are assumed by the Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros. Subsequently, Public Weather Services (PWS) had an increased on the number of requests received from people affected by this event and from insurance companies, for the corresponding indemnity or not. As an example, during the first month after the event, in the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya (SMC) more than 600 requests were received only related to these damages (as an average PWS of SMC received a total of 400 requests per month). Following the research started by the Social Impact Research Group of MEDEX project, a good vulnerability indicator of a meteorological risk can be the number of requests reported. This study uses the information received in the PWS of the SMC during the six months after the event, according the criteria and methodology established in Gayà et al (2008). The objective is to compare the vulnerability with the

The relation between Puelche wind and the occurrence of forest fires in Bio Bio region, Chile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inzunza, Juan Carlos

2009-01-01

This paper presents a study of the relation between Puelche wind and forest fires in the Bio Bio Region, Chile. To establish a relationship between Puelche wind and forest fire generation, different data analysis methods and statistics test were applied. The relation between the total number of fires in the season and the days with Puelche wind were not statistically significant. When analyzing daily averages of fires produced with and without Puelche wind for each season, the highest daily fire occurrence values were found when there is Puelche wind, indicating that this event produces a strong effect on the daily occurrence of fires since these increased by 90% in comparison to the days without Puelche wind. The results of the difference between the number of fires with and without Puelche wind with respect to the average number of total fires indicate that the days with Puelche wind surpass both the total and the average values for days without Puelche wind, confirming the strong effect that a Puelche wind day has on forest fires. The greatest number of fires produced with Puelche wind occurs in the Province of Concepcion. This Province is the most affected by Puelche wind conditions despite having the smallest surface area for the region studied. Still, it is the most populous province of the region and has the greatest surface area with forests and plantations with respect to its size. Consequently, Puelche wind is a factor that increases the occurrence of forest fires and favors their propagation.

Strategic wind power trading considering rival wind power production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Exizidis, Lazaros; Kazempour, Jalal; Pinson, Pierre

2016-01-01

In an electricity market with high share of wind power, it is expected that wind power producers may exercise market power. However, wind producers have to cope with wind’s uncertain nature in order to optimally offer their generation, whereas in a market with more than one wind producers, uncert...... depending on the rival’s wind generation, given that its own expected generation is not high. Finally, as anticipated, expected system cost is higher when both wind power producers are expected to have low wind power generation......In an electricity market with high share of wind power, it is expected that wind power producers may exercise market power. However, wind producers have to cope with wind’s uncertain nature in order to optimally offer their generation, whereas in a market with more than one wind producers......, uncertainty of rival wind power generation should also be considered. Under this context, this paper addresses the impact of rival wind producers on the offering strategy and profits of a pricemaker wind producer. A stochastic day-ahead market setup is considered, which optimizes the day-ahead schedules...

Near 7-day response of ocean bottom pressure to atmospheric surface pressure and winds in the northern South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Kun; Zhu, Xiao-Hua; Zhao, Ruixiang

2018-02-01

Ocean bottom pressures, observed by five pressure-recording inverted echo sounders (PIESs) from October 2012 to July 2014, exhibit strong near 7-day variability in the northern South China Sea (SCS) where long-term in situ bottom pressure observations are quite sparse. This variability was strongest in October 2013 during the near two years observation period. By joint analysis with European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data, it is shown that the near 7-day ocean bottom pressure variability is closely related to the local atmospheric surface pressure and winds. Within a period band near 7 days, there are high coherences, exceeding 95% significance level, of observed ocean bottom pressure with local atmospheric surface pressure and with both zonal and meridional components of the wind. Ekman pumping/suction caused by the meridional component of the wind in particular, is suggested as one driving mechanism. A Kelvin wave response to the near 7-day oscillation would propagate down along the continental slope, observed at the Qui Nhon in the Vietnam. By multiple and partial coherence analyses, we find that local atmospheric surface pressure and Ekman pumping/suction show nearly equal influence on ocean bottom pressure variability at near 7-day periods. A schematic diagram representing an idealized model gives us a possible mechanism to explain the relationship between ocean bottom pressure and local atmospheric forcing at near 7-day periods in the northern SCS.

Wind-drive coastal currents in the Gulf of Tehuatepec: HF radar observations and numerical model simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Velazquez, F. A.; Martinez, J. A.; Durazo, R.; Flament, P.

2007-12-01

Most of the studies on coastal dynamics in the Gulf of Tehuatepec (GT) have been focused on mixing processes and mesoscale eddies generated due to strong off-shore wind events, know as Nortes or Tehuanos. In order to investigate the spatial and temporal mesoscale variability of surface dynamic in the GT in February 2005, two HF Radar model WERA were deployed along the shore of Oaxaca, Mexico. The spatial coverage of radars reaches up to 120 km off-shore. The radial velocities were processed to obtain total velocity maps every hour in a regular grid of 5.5 km. space resolution. The information of surface velocity and quickscat/NCEP wind obtained during the first sample days show that exist a coastal current toward the west and, during the wind events, is accelerated and steered toward the southwest. In this same period, we find that spatial density of kinetic energy and divergence of velocity field increase during wind events while the vorticity becomes negative. When strong wind events are not present the surface circulation is weakened, mainly for the zonal component of the wind that is mostly positive (westward). These results are in agreement with the upwelling processes observed on the coast and the anticyclonic eddie generation west of the GT during Tehuanos. Images of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration are also used to observe the signature of wind events near the shore. Complementary to field observations, numerical simulation using a 3D primitive equations model (POM) are used to study the wind-driven circulation in the GT. It has been commonly accepted in previous studies that the strong wind events generate mesoscale eddies. We discuss the limited effect of the wind and the interaction of the wind with a coastal current required to generate long life eddies.

Temperature And Wind Velocity Oscillations Along a Gentle Slope During Sea-Breeze Events

Science.gov (United States)

Bastin, Sophie; Drobinski, Philippe

2005-03-01

The flow structure on a gentle slope at Vallon d’Ol in the northern suburbs of Marseille in southern France has been documented by means of surface wind and temperature measurements collected from 7 June to 14 July 2001 during the ESCOMPTE experiment. The analysis of the time series reveals temperature and wind speed oscillations during several nights (about 60--90 min oscillation period) and several days (about 120-180 min oscillation period) during the whole observing period. Oscillating katabatic winds have been reported in the literature from theoretical, experimental and numerical studies. In the present study, the dynamics of the observed oscillating katabatic winds are in good agreement with the theory.In contrast to katabatic winds, no daytime observations of oscillating anabatic upslope flows have ever been published to our knowledge, probably because of temperature inversion break-up that inhibits upslope winds. The present paper shows that cold air advection by a sea breeze generates a mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient, and hence baroclinicity in the atmosphere, which then allows low-frequency oscillations, similar to a katabatic flow. An expression for the oscillation period is derived that accounts for the contribution of the sea-breeze induced mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient. The theoretical prediction of the oscillation period is compared to the measurements, and good agreement is found. The statistical analysis of the wind flow at Vallon d’Ol shows a dominant north-easterly to easterly flow pattern for nighttime oscillations and a dominant south-westerly flow pattern for daytime oscillations. These results are consistent with published numerical simulation results that show that the air drains off the mountain along the maximum slope direction, which in the studied case is oriented south-west to north-east.

Streamwise evolution of statistical events and the triple correlation in a model wind turbine array

Science.gov (United States)

Viestenz, Kyle; Cal, Raúl Bayoán

2013-11-01

Hot-wire anemometry data, obtained from a wind tunnel experiment containing a 3 × 3 wind turbine array, are used to conditionally average the Reynolds stresses. Nine profiles at the centerline behind the array are analyzed to characterize the turbulent velocity statistics of the wake flow. Quadrant analysis yields statistical events occurring in the wake of the wind farm, where quadrants 2 and 4 produce ejections and sweeps, respectively. A balance between these quadrants is expressed via the ΔSo parameter, which attains a maximum value at the bottom tip and changes sign near the top tip of the rotor. These are then associated to the triple correlation term present in the turbulent kinetic energy equation of the fluctuations. The development of these various quantities is assessed in light of wake remediation, energy transport and possess significance in closure models. National Science Foundation: ECCS-1032647.

Climatological attribution of wind power ramp events in East Japan and their probabilistic forecast based on multi-model ensembles downscaled by analog ensemble using self-organizing maps

Science.gov (United States)

Ohba, Masamichi; Nohara, Daisuke; Kadokura, Shinji

2016-04-01

Severe storms or other extreme weather events can interrupt the spin of wind turbines in large scale that cause unexpected "wind ramp events". In this study, we present an application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) for climatological attribution of the wind ramp events and their probabilistic prediction. The SOM is an automatic data-mining clustering technique, which allows us to summarize a high-dimensional data space in terms of a set of reference vectors. The SOM is applied to analyze and connect the relationship between atmospheric patterns over Japan and wind power generation. SOM is employed on sea level pressure derived from the JRA55 reanalysis over the target area (Tohoku region in Japan), whereby a two-dimensional lattice of weather patterns (WPs) classified during the 1977-2013 period is obtained. To compare with the atmospheric data, the long-term wind power generation is reconstructed by using a high-resolution surface observation network AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System) in Japan. Our analysis extracts seven typical WPs, which are linked to frequent occurrences of wind ramp events. Probabilistic forecasts to wind power generation and ramps are conducted by using the obtained SOM. The probability are derived from the multiple SOM lattices based on the matching of output from TIGGE multi-model global forecast to the WPs on the lattices. Since this method effectively takes care of the empirical uncertainties from the historical data, wind power generation and ramp is probabilistically forecasted from the forecasts of global models. The predictability skill of the forecasts for the wind power generation and ramp events show the relatively good skill score under the downscaling technique. It is expected that the results of this study provides better guidance to the user community and contribute to future development of system operation model for the transmission grid operator.

Proceedings of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory Wind Energy Systems Engineering Workshop

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dykes, K.

2014-12-01

The second National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Wind Energy Systems Engineering Workshop was held in Broomfield, Colorado, from January 29 to February 1, 2013. The event included a day-and-a-half workshop exploring a wide variety of topics related to system modeling and design of wind turbines and plants. Following the workshop, 2 days of tutorials were held at NREL, showcasing software developed at Sandia National Laboratories, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Glenn Laboratories, and NREL. This document provides a brief summary of the various workshop activities and includes a review of the content and evaluation results from attendees.

Wireless AE Event and Environmental Monitoring for Wind Turbine Blades at Low Sampling Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Bouzid, Omar M.; Tian, Gui Y.; Cumanan, K.; Neasham, J.

Integration of acoustic wireless technology in structural health monitoring (SHM) applications introduces new challenges due to requirements of high sampling rates, additional communication bandwidth, memory space, and power resources. In order to circumvent these challenges, this chapter proposes a novel solution through building a wireless SHM technique in conjunction with acoustic emission (AE) with field deployment on the structure of a wind turbine. This solution requires a low sampling rate which is lower than the Nyquist rate. In addition, features extracted from aliased AE signals instead of reconstructing the original signals on-board the wireless nodes are exploited to monitor AE events, such as wind, rain, strong hail, and bird strike in different environmental conditions in conjunction with artificial AE sources. Time feature extraction algorithm, in addition to the principal component analysis (PCA) method, is used to extract and classify the relevant information, which in turn is used to classify or recognise a testing condition that is represented by the response signals. This proposed novel technique yields a significant data reduction during the monitoring process of wind turbine blades.

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

76 FR 37649 - Safety Zone; Northern California Annual Fireworks Events, Independence Day Fireworks

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-28

... Zone; Northern California Annual Fireworks Events, Independence Day Fireworks AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS... Independence Day Fireworks (Kings Beach 4th of July Fireworks) safety zone. This action is necessary to control... Fireworks in 33 CFR 165.1191 on July 3, 2011, from 7 a.m. through 10 p.m. The fireworks launch site is...

REGIONAL AIR-SEA INTERACTION (RASI) GAP WIND AND COASTAL UPWELLING EVENTS CLIMATOLOGY GULF OF PAPAGAYO, COSTA RICA V1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Regional Air-Sea Interactions (RASI) Gap Wind and Coastal Upwelling Events Climatology Gulf of Papagayo, Costa Rica dataset was created using an automated...

NASA Climate Days: Promoting Climate Literacy One Ambassador and One Event at a Time

Science.gov (United States)

Weir, H. M.; Lewis, P. M.; Chambers, L. H.; Millham, R. A.; Richardson, A.

2012-12-01

With so many informal outreach and education venues across the world, leveraging them for climate education allows vast amounts of information to be translated to the public in a familiar setting through trusted local sources. One of the challenges is the development of an effective process for training informal educators and providing them with adequate support materials. The 'NASA Climate Day Kit', and its related training strategy for Earth Ambassadors, is designed to address some of these issues. The purpose of the NASA Climate Day project is to collect existing NASA climate education materials, assemble a cadre of informal educators, and provide professional development on the subject of climate change. This training is accomplished through a series of exercises, games, science talks and place-based training. After their training and immersion in climate-related content, participants develop and implement a climate event at their local informal education venue. Throughout their training the Earth Ambassadors are exposed to a wide array of climate related exercises and background content. Some of these include one-on-one science content talks with NASA scientists who study climate on a daily basis. This allows the Ambassador to have direct access to new cutting edge data and information. To complement the science talks, participants explore activities and games that can engage all ages at their climate event. During their training, they also explore the 'Climate Day Kit'. This Kit is an assemblage of climate-related materials created by various NASA groups. Key components of this Kit include data visualizations, articles, electronic reference material, science talks, NASA Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) climate materials, and examples of Climate Day events that have been conducted in the past. As an on-going resource and to use for their own climate event, each group of Earth Ambassadors has access to a dynamic website that hosts all of the science

Using a Family Science Day Event to Engage Youth in Climate Change Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Brevik, C.; Brevik, E. C.

2015-12-01

Each fall, Dickinson State University organizes four Family Science Day events for elementary-aged children to increase their engagement in the sciences. Offered on Saturday afternoons, each event focuses on a different science-related theme. Families can attend these events free of charge, and the kids participate in a large variety of hands-on activities which center around the event's theme. This year, the November event focused on climate change and the roles soil plays in the climate system. The timing of this topic was carefully chosen. 2015 has been declared the International Year of Soil by the United Nations, and the Soil Science Society of America theme for the month of November was Soils and Climate. This public outreach event was an amazing opportunity to help the youth in our community learn about climate change and soil in a fun, interactive environment. The activities also helped the children learn how science is a process of discovery that allows them to better understand the world they live in. In addition to the hands-on activities, a planetarium show focusing on climate change was also offered during the event. The fully immersive, 360-degree show allowed the kids and their parents to personally observe phenomena that are otherwise difficult to visualize. All of the activities at the Family Science Day event were staffed by university students, and this proved to be a very valuable experience for them as well. Some of the students who helped are majoring in a science field, and for them, the experience taught public communication. They learned to break complicated concepts down into simpler terms that young kids can understand. Education majors who participated practiced communicating science concepts to children, and students in other majors who helped with this event gained experiences that reinforced various concepts they had learned in their general education science courses.

Wave Refraction During the May 2002 Rarefaction Event

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, C. W.; Mullan, D. J.; Ness, N. F.; Skoug, R. M.

2002-12-01

In previous work [Smith et al., 2001] we examined IMF wave refraction during the May 1999 rarefaction interval known as ``The Day The Solar Wind Disappeared.'' On that day, Alfvén speeds remained elevated over an extended region. Analysis of the recorded ACE fields and plasma data revealed depressed magnetic fluctuation levels, reduced compression in the fluctuations, and a reduced wave-like component within the region of elevated Alfvén speed, all consistent with wave refraction. The May 2002 event provides a third such period (the second identified event occured 2 weeks prior to the May 1999 period) and it again demonstrates properties which are consistent with refraction. Smith, C.~W., D.~J. Mullan, N.~F. Ness, R.~M. Skoug, and J.~Steinberg, Day the solar wind almost disappeared: Magnetic field fluctuations, wave refraction and dissipation, J. Geophys. Res., A106, 18,625--18,634, 2001. Efforts at the Bartol Research Institute were supported by CIT subcontract PC251439 under NASA grant NAG5-6912 for support of the ACE magnetic field experiment and by the NASA Delaware Space College Grant. Work at Los Alamos was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy with financial support from the NASA ACE program.

Soil deflation analyses from wind erosion events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lenka Lackóová

2015-09-01

Full Text Available There are various methods to assess soil erodibility for wind erosion. This paper focuses on aggregate analysis by a laser particle sizer ANALYSETTE 22 (FRITSCH GmbH, made to determine the size distribution of soil particles detached by wind (deflated particles. Ten soil samples, trapped along the same length of the erosion surface (150–155 m but at different wind speeds, were analysed. The soil was sampled from a flat, smooth area without vegetation cover or soil crust, not affected by the impact of windbreaks or other barriers, from a depth of maximum 2.5 cm. Prior to analysis the samples were prepared according to the relevant specifications. An experiment was also conducted using a device that enables characterisation of the vertical movement of the deflated material. The trapped samples showed no differences in particle size and the proportions of size fractions at different hourly average wind speeds. It was observed that most of particles travelling in saltation mode (size 50–500 μm – 58–70% – moved vertically up to 26 cm above the soil surface. At greater heights, particles moving in suspension mode (floating in the air; size < 100 μm accounted for up to 90% of the samples. This result suggests that the boundary between the two modes of the vertical movement of deflated soil particles lies at about 25 cm above the soil surface.

Mid-latitude thermospheric wind changes during the St. Patrick's Day storm of 2015 observed by two Fabry-Perot interferometers in China

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Cong; Xu, Ji-Yao; Zhang, Xiao-Xin; Liu, Dan-Dan; Yuan, Wei; Jiang, Guo-Ying

2018-04-01

In this work, we utilize thermospheric wind observations by the Fabry-Perot interferometers (FPI) from the Kelan (KL) station (38.7°N, 111.6°E, Magnetic Latitude: 28.9°N) and the Xinglong (XL) station (40.2°N, 117.4°E, Magnetic Latitude: 30.5°N) in central China during the St. Patrick's Day storm (from Mar. 17 to Mar. 19) of 2015 to analyze thermospheric wind disturbances and compare observations with the Horizontal Wind Model 2007 (HWM07). The results reveal that the wind measurements at KL show very similar trends to those at XL. Large enhancements are seen in both the westward and equatorward winds after the severe geomagnetic storm occurred. The westward wind speed increased to a peak value of 75 m/s and the equatorward wind enhanced to a peak value of over 100 m/s. There also exist obvious poleward disturbances in the meridional winds during Mar. 17 to Mar. 19. According to the comparison with HWM07, there exist evident wind speed and temporal differences between FPI-winds and the model outputs in this severe geomagnetic storm. The discrepancies between the observations and HWM07 imply that the empirical model should be used carefully in wind disturbance forecast during large geomagnetic storms and more investigations between measurements and numerical models are necessary in future studies.

Can high-energy proton events in solar wind be predicted via classification of precursory structures?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hallerberg, Sarah [Chemnitz University of Technology (Germany); Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (United States)

2011-07-01

Shock waves in the solar wind associated with solar coronal mass ejections produce fluxes of high-energy protons and ions with energies larger than 10 MeV. These fluxes present a danger to humans and electronic equipment in space, and also endanger passengers of over-pole air flights. The approaches that have been exploited for the prediction of high-energy particle events so far consist in training artificial neural networks on catalogues of events. Our approach towards this task is based on the identification of precursory structures in the fluxes of particles. In contrast to artificial neural networks that function as a ''black box'' transforming data into predictions, this classification approach can additionally provide information on relevant precursory events and thus might help to improve the understanding of underlying mechanisms of particle acceleration.

78 FR 54571 - Special Local Regulation for Marine Event Hampton Bay Days Festival, Hampton River; Hampton, VA

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-05

...-AA08 Special Local Regulation for Marine Event Hampton Bay Days Festival, Hampton River; Hampton, VA... Fifth Coast Guard District. This regulation applies only to the Hampton Bay Days Festival, which... Purpose Hampton Bay Days is sponsoring the three days Hampton Bay Days Festival, which includes a...

Dust emission and transport over Iraq associated with the summer Shamal winds

Science.gov (United States)

Bou Karam Francis, D.; Flamant, C.; Chaboureau, J.-P.; Banks, J.; Cuesta, J.; Brindley, H.; Oolman, L.

2017-02-01

In this study, we investigate the diurnal evolution of the summer Shamal wind (a quasi-permanent low-level northwesterly wind feature) and its role in dust emission and transport over Iraq, using ground-based and space-borne observations together with a numerical simulation performed with the mesoscale model meso-NH. A 6-year dataset from the synoptic stations over Iraq allows establishing the prominence of the link between strong near surface winds and reduced visibility in the summer. The detailed processes at play during Shamal events are explored on the basis of a meso-NH simulation for a given, representative case study (25 June-3 July 2010). The Shamal exhibits an out-of-phase relationship between the surface wind and winds in the lower troposphere (typically 500 m above ground level), the maximum surface wind speeds being observed during the day while in altitude the maximum wind speeds are observed at night. The daytime near surface winds, at the origin of dust emission, are associated with the downward transfer of momentum from the nocturnal low-level jet to the surface due to turbulent mixing after solar heating commences each day. For the first time, an estimate of the dust load associated with summer Shamal events over Iraq has been made using aerosol optical depths derived from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and the simulation. The dust load exhibits a large diurnal variability, with a daily minimum value of 1 Tg around 0600 UTC and a daily peak of 2.5 Tg or more around 1500 UTC, and is driven by the diurnal cycle of the near surface wind speed. The daily dust load peak associated with the summer Shamal over Iraq is in the same order of magnitude as those derived from simulations downstream of the Bodélé depression in Chad, known to be the world's largest dust source.

Wind energy: Overcoming inadequate wind and modeling uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kane, Vivek

2010-09-15

'Green Energy' is the call of the day, and significance of Wind Energy can never be overemphasized. But the key question here is - What if the wind resources are inadequate? Studies reveal that the probability of finding favorable wind at a given place on land is only 15%. Moreover, there are inherent uncertainties associated with wind business. Can we overcome inadequate wind resources? Can we scientifically quantify uncertainty and model it to make business sense? This paper proposes a solution, by way of break-through Wind Technologies, combined with advanced tools for Financial Modeling, enabling vital business decisions.

Proceedings of the Canadian Wind Energy Association's 2010 annual conference and exhibition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The wind power industry is now experiencing rapid growth in many of the developed countries who seek to expand their renewable energy portfolios and reduce harmful emissions into the atmosphere. The annual Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA) conference and exhibition provides a forum for members of the wind power industry as well as various other experts and stakeholders to exchange information and to discuss innovations and technologies designed to increase wind power capacity in Canada. The environmental impacts of wind turbines were examined, as well as some of the issues that are currently inhibiting growth of the wind power industry. New construction and operational strategies were presented. Business approaches for ensuring adequate investment in the industry were reviewed, and recommendations for government regulations and renewable energy investment incentives were provided. Advances in forecasting were outlined, and issues currently influencing the electric power industry in relation to wind power, reliability, and growth were also discussed. Methods of ensuring the reliability and safety of turbines in the event of icing and other meteorological events were also presented. The conference was divided into the following 5 tracks over a 3 day period: (1) project assessment, (2) project development, (3) business development, (4) technical, and (5) small wind. Each track was further sub-divided into sessions that covered a range of topics. Twenty-nine presentations were included in a poster session. The conference featured 118 presentations, of which 108 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs.

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to

A simple method to downscale daily wind statistics to hourly wind data

OpenAIRE

Guo, Zhongling

2013-01-01

Wind is the principal driver in the wind erosion models. The hourly wind speed data were generally required for precisely wind erosion modeling. In this study, a simple method to generate hourly wind speed data from daily wind statistics (daily average and maximum wind speeds together or daily average wind speed only) was established. A typical windy location with 3285 days (9 years) measured hourly wind speed data were used to validate the downscaling method. The results showed that the over...

Stable Low Cloud Phase II: Nocturnal Event Study

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, William H., III; Barrett, Joe, III

2007-01-01

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of nights that experienced rapid (formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). This work is the second phase of a similar AMU task that examined the same phenomena during the day. In the first phase of this work, the meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity (RH) beneath the inversion and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between nights with rapid low ceiling formation and nights with low ceilings resulting from other mechanisms. The AMU found that there was little to discern between the rapidly-forming ceiling nights and other low ceiling nights at TTS. When a rapid development occurred, the average RH below the inversions was 87% while non-events had an average RH of 79%. One key parameter appeared to be the vertical wind profile in the Cape Canaveral, FL radiosonde (XMR) sounding. Eighty-three percent of the rapid development events had veering winds with height from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15,000 ft) while 61% of the non-events had veering winds with height. Veering winds indicate a warm-advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motion and ultimately cloud formation in a moist environment. However, only six of the nights (out of 86 events examined) with low cloud ceilings had an occurrence of rapidly developing ceilings. Since only 7% rapid development events were observed in this dataset, it is likely that rapid low cloud development is not a common occurrence during the night, or at least not as common as during the day. In the AMU work on the daytime rapid low cloud development (Case and Wheeler 2005), nearly

Wind Turbine Providing Grid Support

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2011-01-01

changing the operation of the wind turbine to a more efficient working point.; When the rotational speed of the rotor reaches a minimum value, the wind turbine enters a recovery period to re-accelerate the rotor to the nominal rotational speed while further contributing to the stability of the electrical......A variable speed wind turbine is arranged to provide additional electrical power to counteract non-periodic disturbances in an electrical grid. A controller monitors events indicating a need to increase the electrical output power from the wind turbine to the electrical grid. The controller...... is arranged to control the wind turbine as follows: after an indicating event has been detected, the wind turbine enters an overproduction period in which the electrical output power is increased, wherein the additional electrical output power is taken from kinetic energy stored in the rotor and without...

Optimal bidding in Turkey day ahead electricity market for wind energy and pumped storage hydro power plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ceyhun Yıldız

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In electrical grid; when the demand power increases energy prices increase, when the demand decreases energy prices decrease. For this reason; to increase the total daily income, it is required to shift generations to the hours that high demand power values occurred. Wind Power Plants (WPP have unstable and uncontrollable generation characteristic. For this reason, energy storage systems are needed to shift the generations of WPPs in time scale. In this study, four wind power plants (WPP which are tied to the Turkish interconnected grid and a pumped hydro storage power plant (PSPP that meets the energy storage requirement of these power plants are investigated in Turkey day ahead energy market. An optimization algorithm is developed using linear programming technique to maximize the day ahead market bids of these plants which are going to generate power together. When incomes and generations of the plants that are operated with optimization strategy is analyzed, it is seen that annual income increased by 2.737% compared with WPPs ‘s alone operation and generations are substantially shifted to the high demand power occurred hours.

Inexact stochastic risk-aversion optimal day-ahead dispatch model for electricity system management with wind power under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ji, Ling; Huang, Guo-He; Huang, Lu-Cheng; Xie, Yu-Lei; Niu, Dong-Xiao

2016-01-01

High penetration of wind power generation and deregulated electricity market brings a great challenge to the electricity system operators. It is crucial to make optimal strategy among various generation units and spinning reserve for supporting the system safety operation. By integrating interval two-stage programming and stochastic robust programming, this paper proposes a novel robust model for day-ahead dispatch and risk-aversion management under uncertainties. In the proposed model, the uncertainties are expressed as interval values with different scenario probability. The proposed method requires low computation, and still retains the complete information. A case study is to validate the effectiveness of this approach. Facing the uncertainties of future demand and electricity price, the system operators need to make optimal dispatch strategy for thermal power units and wind turbine, and arrange proper spinning reserve and flexible demand response program to mitigate wind power forecasting error. The optimal strategies provide the system operators with better trade-off between the maximum benefits and the minimum system risk. In additional, two different market rules are compared. The results show that extra financial penalty for the wind power dispatch deviation is another efficient way to enhance the risk consciousness of decision makers and lead to more conservative strategy. - Highlights: • An inexact two-stage stochastic robust programming model for electricity system with wind power penetration. • Uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and probability distributions. • Demand response program was introduced to adjust the deviation in real-time market. • Financial penalty for imbalance risk from wind power generation was evaluated.

A variance analysis of the capacity displaced by wind energy in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Giebel, Gregor

2007-01-01

into a longer-term context. The results are that wind energy can contribute more than 20% of the European demand without significant changes in the system and can replace conventional capacity worth about 10% of the installed wind power capacity. The long-term reference shows that the analysed year is the worst...... simulating the scheduling of the European power plants to cover the demand at every hour of the year. The wind power generation was modelled using wind speed measurements from 60 meteorological stations, for 1 year. The distributed wind power also displaces fossil-fuelled capacity. However, every assessment...... of the displaced capacity (or a capacity credit) by means of a chronological model is highly sensitive to single events. Therefore the wind time series was shifted by integer days against the load time series, and the different results were aggregated. The some set of results is shown for two other options, one...

SLS Trade Study 0058: Day of Launch (DOL) Wind Biasing

Science.gov (United States)

Decker, Ryan K.; Duffin, Paul; Hill, Ashley; Beck, Roger; Dukeman, Greg

2014-01-01

SLS heritage hardware and legacy designs have shown load exceedances at several locations during Design Analysis Cycles (DAC): MPCV Z bending moments; ICPS Electro-Mechanical Actuator (EMA) loads; Core Stage loads just downstream of Booster forward interface. SLS Buffet Loads Mitigation Task Team (BLMTT) tasked to study issue. Identified low frequency buffet load responses are a function of the vehicle's total angle of attack (AlphaTotal). SLS DOL Wind Biasing Trade team to analyze DOL wind biasing methods to limit maximum AlphaTotal in the M0.8 - 2.0 altitude region for EM-1 and EM-2 missions through investigating: Trajectory design process; Wind wavelength filtering options; Launch availability; DOL process to achieve shorter processing/uplink timeline. Trade Team consisted of personnel supporting SLS, MPCV, GSDO programs.

Analysis of extreme wind events at Høvsøre and the effect on wind turbine loads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hannesdóttir, Ásta; Kelly, Mark C.; Mann, Jakob

used to simulate wind turbine response in time domain. The simulations are made for the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine. Load analysis shows that the maximum tilt moment on the tower yaw bearing correlates well with the wind shear of the measurements. When these loads are compared with the extreme...... wind shear load case of the IEC standards, it is seen that they are of similar magnitude and in one case even higher....

Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Legates, David R.; Lins, Harry F.

2010-01-01

Daily precipitation from 22 National Weather Service first-order weather stations in the southwestern United States for water years 1951 through 2006 are used to examine variability and trends in the frequency of dry days and dry event length. Dry events with minimum thresholds of 10 and 20 consecutive days of precipitation with less than 2.54 mm are analyzed. For water years and cool seasons (October through March), most sites indicate negative trends in dry event length (i.e., dry event durations are becoming shorter). For the warm season (April through September), most sites also indicate negative trends; however, more sites indicate positive trends in dry event length for the warm season than for water years or cool seasons. The larger number of sites indicating positive trends in dry event length during the warm season is due to a series of dry warm seasons near the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Overall, a large portion of the variability in dry event length is attributable to variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially for water years and cool seasons. Our results are consistent with analyses of trends in discharge for sites in the southwestern United States, an increased frequency in El Niño events, and positive trends in precipitation in the southwestern United States.

Different magnetospheric modes: solar wind driving and coupling efficiency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Partamies

2009-11-01

Full Text Available This study describes a systematic statistical comparison of isolated non-storm substorms, steady magnetospheric convection (SMC intervals and sawtooth events. The number of events is approximately the same in each group and the data are taken from about the same years to avoid biasing by different solar cycle phase. The very same superposed epoch analysis is performed for each event group to show the characteristics of ground-based indices (AL, PCN, PC potential, particle injection at the geostationary orbit and the solar wind and IMF parameters. We show that the monthly occurrence of sawtooth events and isolated non-stormtime substorms closely follows maxima of the geomagnetic activity at (or close to the equinoxes. The most strongly solar wind driven event type, sawtooth events, is the least efficient in coupling the solar wind energy to the auroral ionosphere, while SMC periods are associated with the highest coupling ratio (AL/EY. Furthermore, solar wind speed seems to play a key role in determining the type of activity in the magnetosphere. Slow solar wind is capable of maintaining steady convection. During fast solar wind streams the magnetosphere responds with loading–unloading cycles, represented by substorms during moderately active conditions and sawtooth events (or other storm-time activations during geomagnetically active conditions.

Atmospheric dust events in central Asia: Relationship to wind, soil type, and land use

Science.gov (United States)

Pi, Huawei; Sharratt, Brenton; Lei, Jiaqiang

2017-06-01

Xinjiang Province in northwest China is one of the most important source regions of atmospheric dust in the world. Spatial-temporal characteristics of dust events in the province were investigated by time series analysis of annual dust event frequency and meteorological data collected at 101 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2007. Blowing dust frequency (BDF) and dust storm frequency (DSF) decreased with time in North, South, and East Xinjiang whereas floating dust frequency (FDF) decreased with time only in South and East Xinjiang. Dust concentrations were lower in North than in South Xinjiang and decreased with time in East Xinjiang. Wind significantly influenced the temporal trend in FDF, BDF, and DSF in South Xinjiang and DSF in North Xinjiang. Frequency of dust events was smaller by an order of magnitude in North (10.9 d yr-1) than in South Xinjiang (111.3 d yr-1), possibly due in part to higher annual precipitation in North Xinjiang. Floating dust was most frequently observed in East and South Xinjiang, while blowing dust was most frequently observed in North Xinjiang. The high frequency of floating dust in East and South Xinjiang is likely due to the enclosed terrain that characterizes these regions. Land use and soil type also influenced dust events. Although climate influences frequency of dust events, the occurrence of these events may be reduced most effectively by imposing better land management practices in deciduous forests or orchards characterized by saline soils in respectively North and East Xinjiang and meadows characterized by Guanyu soils in South Xinjiang.

Wind power statistics and an evaluation of wind energy density

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jamil, M.; Parsa, S.; Majidi, M. [Materials and Energy Research Centre, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

1995-11-01

In this paper the statistical data of fifty days` wind speed measurements at the MERC- solar site are used to find out the wind energy density and other wind characteristics with the help of the Weibull probability distribution function. It is emphasized that the Weibull and Rayleigh probability functions are useful tools for wind energy density estimation but are not quite appropriate for properly fitting the actual wind data of low mean speed, short-time records. One has to use either the actual wind data (histogram) or look for a better fit by other models of the probability function. (Author)

Proceedings of the Canadian Wind Energy Association's 2010 annual conference and exhibition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

The wind power industry is now experiencing rapid growth in many of the developed countries who seek to expand their renewable energy portfolios and reduce harmful emissions into the atmosphere. The annual Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA) conference and exhibition provides a forum for members of the wind power industry as well as various other experts and stakeholders to exchange information and to discuss innovations and technologies designed to increase wind power capacity in Canada. The environmental impacts of wind turbines were examined, as well as some of the issues that are currently inhibiting growth of the wind power industry. New construction and operational strategies were presented. Business approaches for ensuring adequate investment in the industry were reviewed, and recommendations for government regulations and renewable energy investment incentives were provided. Advances in forecasting were outlined, and issues currently influencing the electric power industry in relation to wind power, reliability, and growth were also discussed. Methods of ensuring the reliability and safety of turbines in the event of icing and other meteorological events were also presented. The conference was divided into the following 5 tracks over a 3 day period: (1) project assessment, (2) project development, (3) business development, (4) technical, and (5) small wind. Each track was further sub-divided into sessions that covered a range of topics. Twenty-nine presentations were included in a poster session. The conference featured 118 presentations, of which 108 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs.

Vertical velocity and turbulence aspects during Mistral events as observed by UHF wind profilers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-L. Caccia

2004-11-01

Full Text Available The general purpose of this paper is to experimentally study mesoscale dynamical aspects of the Mistral in the coastal area located at the exit of the Rhône-valley. The Mistral is a northerly low-level flow blowing in southern France along the Rhône-valley axis, located between the French Alps and the Massif Central, towards the Mediterranean Sea. The experimental data are obtained by UHF wind profilers deployed during two major field campaigns, MAP (Mesoscale Alpine Program in autumn 1999, and ESCOMPTE (Expérience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphériques et de Transports d'Emission in summer 2001. Thanks to the use of the time evolution of the vertical profile of the horizontal wind vector, recent works have shown that the dynamics of the Mistral is highly dependent on the season because of the occurrence of specific synoptic patterns. In addition, during summer, thermal forcing leads to a combination of sea breeze with Mistral and weaker Mistral due to the enhanced friction while, during autumn, absence of convective turbulence leads to substantial acceleration as low-level jets are generated in the stably stratified planetary boundary layer. At the exit of the Rhône valley, the gap flow dynamics dominates, whereas at the lee of the Alps, the dynamics is driven by the relative contribution of "flow around" and "flow over" mechanisms, upstream of the Alps. This paper analyses vertical velocity and turbulence, i.e. turbulent dissipation rate, with data obtained by the same UHF wind profilers during the same Mistral events. In autumn, the motions are found to be globally and significantly subsident, which is coherent for a dry, cold and stable flow approaching the sea, and the turbulence is found to be of pure dynamical origin (wind shears and mountain/lee wave breaking, which is coherent with non-convective situations. In summer, due to the ground heating and to the interactions with thermal circulation, the

Vertical velocity and turbulence aspects during Mistral events as observed by UHF wind profilers

Science.gov (United States)

Caccia, J.; Guénard, V.; Benech, B.; Campistron, B.; Drobinski, P.

2004-11-01

The general purpose of this paper is to experimentally study mesoscale dynamical aspects of the Mistral in the coastal area located at the exit of the Rhône-valley. The Mistral is a northerly low-level flow blowing in southern France along the Rhône-valley axis, located between the French Alps and the Massif Central, towards the Mediterranean Sea. The experimental data are obtained by UHF wind profilers deployed during two major field campaigns, MAP (Mesoscale Alpine Program) in autumn 1999, and ESCOMPTE (Expérience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphériques et de Transports d'Emission) in summer 2001. Thanks to the use of the time evolution of the vertical profile of the horizontal wind vector, recent works have shown that the dynamics of the Mistral is highly dependent on the season because of the occurrence of specific synoptic patterns. In addition, during summer, thermal forcing leads to a combination of sea breeze with Mistral and weaker Mistral due to the enhanced friction while, during autumn, absence of convective turbulence leads to substantial acceleration as low-level jets are generated in the stably stratified planetary boundary layer. At the exit of the Rhône valley, the gap flow dynamics dominates, whereas at the lee of the Alps, the dynamics is driven by the relative contribution of "flow around" and "flow over" mechanisms, upstream of the Alps. This paper analyses vertical velocity and turbulence, i.e. turbulent dissipation rate, with data obtained by the same UHF wind profilers during the same Mistral events. In autumn, the motions are found to be globally and significantly subsident, which is coherent for a dry, cold and stable flow approaching the sea, and the turbulence is found to be of pure dynamical origin (wind shears and mountain/lee wave breaking), which is coherent with non-convective situations. In summer, due to the ground heating and to the interactions with thermal circulation, the vertical motions are

Vertical velocity and turbulence aspects during Mistral events as observed by UHF wind profilers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caccia, J.L.; Guenard, V. [LSEET, CNRS/Univ. de Toulon, La Garde (France); Benech, B.; Campistron, B. [CRA/LA, CNRS/Obs. Midi-Pyrenees, Campistrous (France); Drobinski, P. [IPSL/SA, CNRS/Univ. de Paris VI, Paris (France)

2004-07-01

The general purpose of this paper is to experimentally study mesoscale dynamical aspects of the Mistral in the coastal area located at the exit of the Rhone-valley. The Mistral is a northerly low-level flow blowing in southern France along the Rhone-valley axis, located between the French Alps and the Massif Central, towards the Mediterranean Sea. The experimental data are obtained by UHF wind profilers deployed during two major field campaigns, MAP (mesoscale alpine program) in autumn 1999, and ESCOMPTE (Experience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modeles de Pollution atmospheriques et de Transports d'Emission) in summer 2001. Thanks to the use of the time evolution of the vertical profile of the horizontal wind vector, recent works have shown that the dynamics of the Mistral is highly dependent on the season because of the occurrence of specific synoptic patterns. In addition, during summer, thermal forcing leads to a combination of sea breeze with Mistral and weaker Mistral due to the enhanced friction while, during autumn, absence of convective turbulence leads to substantial acceleration as low-level jets are generated in the stably stratified planetary boundary layer. At the exit of the Rhone valley, the gap flow dynamics dominates, whereas at the lee of the Alps, the dynamics is driven by the relative contribution of ''flow around'' and ''flow over'' mechanisms, upstream of the Alps. This paper analyses vertical velocity and turbulence, i.e. turbulent dissipation rate, with data obtained by the same UHF wind profilers during the same Mistral events. In autumn, the motions are found to be globally and significantly subsident, which is coherent for a dry, cold and stable flow approaching the sea, and the turbulence is found to be of pure dynamical origin (wind shears and mountain/lee wave breaking), which is coherent with non-convective situations. In summer, due to the ground heating and to the interactions with

Atmospheric Wind Relaxations and the Oceanic Response in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Fewings, M. R.; Dorman, C. E.; Washburn, L.; Liu, W.

2010-12-01

On the West Coast of North America in summer, episodic relaxation of the upwelling-favorable winds causes warm water to propagate northward from southern to central California, against the prevailing currents [Harms and Winant 1998, Winant et al. 2003, Melton et al. 2009]. Similar wind relaxations are an important characteristic of coastal upwelling ecosystems worldwide. Although these wind relaxations have an important influence on coastal ocean dynamics, no description exists of the regional atmospheric patterns that lead to wind relaxations in southern California, or of the regional ocean response. We use QuikSCAT wind stress, North American Regional Reanalysis atmospheric pressure products, water temperature and velocity from coastal ocean moorings, surface ocean currents from high-frequency radars, and MODIS satellite sea-surface temperature and ocean color images to analyze wind relaxation events and the ocean response. We identify the events based on an empirical index calculated from NDBC buoy winds [Melton et al. 2009]. We describe the regional evolution of the atmosphere from the Gulf of Alaska to Baja California over the few days leading up to wind relaxations, and the coastal ocean temperature, color, and current response off southern and central California. We analyze ~100 wind relaxation events in June-September during the QuikSCAT mission, 1999-2009. Our results indicate south-central California wind relaxations in summer are tied to mid-level atmospheric low-pressure systems that form in the Gulf of Alaska and propagate southeastward over 3-5 days. As the low-pressure systems reach southern California, the atmospheric pressure gradient along the coast weakens, causing the surface wind stress to relax to near zero. The weak wind signal appears first at San Diego and propagates northward. QuikSCAT data indicate the relaxed winds extend over the entire Southern California Bight and up to 200 km offshore of central California. Atmospheric dynamics in

Tourist event "Days of plum" at Blace: Demographic and geographic analysis of visitors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lović Suzana

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The event "Days of Plum - My Plum" at Blace has been one of 42 events dedicated to fruits and vegetables and one of three events dedicated to plum in Serbia. It has been held for nine consecutive years in the town situated in the wide Toplica valley at the foot of Jastrebac, where in a relatively favourable climate conditions there are good conditions for development of plum, so it has become a traditional event. This paper analyzes the results of a survey conducted during the last event, August 2011. The survey is used as methodical procedure because in relatively short time period a relatively large amount of information and data has been obtained. The survey includes 304 randomly selected respondents of different gender, age and educational structures. It was performed to examine the tourism market, attitudes and behaviour of visitors, as well as tourism promotion. In addition to the survey, the tourist valorisation of events is done in which the elements of geographic and economic groups of criteria are analyzed in order to investigate the tourism potential in terms of development of tourism as an economic sector that can contribute to the development of Blace as an underdeveloped area. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47007

Wind and tornado guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, J.R.

1989-01-01

The objective of the Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Project is to provide guidance and criteria for design of new facilities and for evaluation of existing ones subjected to extreme winds, earthquakes, and floods. This paper describes the treatment of wind and tornado hazards. Four facility-use categories are defined which represent increasing levels of risk to personnel or the environment in the event of a high wind event. Facilities are assigned to a particular category, depending on their mission, value, or toxic material content. The assigned facility-use category determines the design and evaluation criteria. The criteria are based on probabilistic hazard assessment. Performance goals are also specified for each facility-use category. A uniform approach to design wind loads, based on the ANSI A58.1-1982 standard, allows treatment of high winds and hurricane and tornado winds in a similar manner. Based on the wind hazard models, some sites must account for the possibility of tornadoes while others do not. Atmospheric pressure changes and missiles must be taken into account when considering tornadoes. The design and evaluation guidelines are designed to establish consistent levels of risk for different natural phenomena hazards and for facilities at different geographical locations

Distribution and solar wind control of compressional solar wind-magnetic anomaly interactions observed at the Moon by ARTEMIS

Science.gov (United States)

Halekas, J. S.; Poppe, A. R.; Lue, C.; Farrell, W. M.; McFadden, J. P.

2017-06-01

A statistical investigation of 5 years of observations from the two-probe Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence, and Electrodynamics of Moon's Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) mission reveals that strong compressional interactions occur infrequently at high altitudes near the ecliptic but can form in a wide range of solar wind conditions and can occur up to two lunar radii downstream from the lunar limb. The compressional events, some of which may represent small-scale collisionless shocks ("limb shocks"), occur in both steady and variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions, with those forming in steady IMF well organized by the location of lunar remanent crustal magnetization. The events observed by ARTEMIS have similarities to ion foreshock phenomena, and those observed in variable IMF conditions may result from either local lunar interactions or distant terrestrial foreshock interactions. Observed velocity deflections associated with compressional events are always outward from the lunar wake, regardless of location and solar wind conditions. However, events for which the observed velocity deflection is parallel to the upstream motional electric field form in distinctly different solar wind conditions and locations than events with antiparallel deflections. Consideration of the momentum transfer between incoming and reflected solar wind populations helps explain the observed characteristics of the different groups of events.Plain Language SummaryWe survey the environment around the Moon to determine when and where strong amplifications in the charged particle density and magnetic field strength occur. These structures may be some of the smallest shock waves in the solar system, and learning about their formation informs us about the interaction of charged particles with small-scale magnetic fields throughout the solar system and beyond. We find that these compressions occur in an extended region downstream from the lunar dawn and dusk regions and

Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index

Science.gov (United States)

2015-11-25

univariate zonal wind EOF analysis, the mean number of continuing events exceeds 437 observations, though the observed number falls within the 95...year simulation period using the truncated, 464 observed SSTs. Approximately two-thirds of the observed events fall within 20-100 days with a 465...Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF 745 model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales, Q. J. Roy. Meteor . Soc.. 134, 1337

Conference on offshore wind energy in France and Germany: challenges of a promising segment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chrupek, Thierry; Falk, Thorsten; Hofmann, Stefanie; Gouverneur, Philippe; Le Visage, Christophe; Saint Martin, Gro de; Meyerjuergens, Tim; Dachicourt, Pierre-Georges; Hube, Wilfried

2008-01-01

The French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a conference on the development of offshore wind energy in France and Germany. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, more than 100 participants exchanged views on offshore wind energy development, and on the conflicts of usage between fishermen and offshore wind farms. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Offshore wind energy development in France (Thierry Chrupek); 2 - Present day situation of offshore wind energy development and use in Germany (Thorsten Falk); 3 - Risks and profitability of offshore wind energy (Philippe Gouverneur); 4 - Sea and shore integrated management: what impacts for offshore wind energy? (Christophe Le Visage); 5 - Towards and offshore grid? (Gro de Saint Martin); 6 - Grid connection of offshore wind farms in Germany (Tim Meyerjuergens); 7 - Conflicts of usage between professional fishing and offshore wind farms (Pierre-Georges Dachicourt); 8 - Ecological evaluative research for the use of offshore wind energy - Advantages, projects and studies. Environmental follow-up of wind energy projects (Stefanie Hofmann); 9 - Alpha Ventus offshore test park: context, progress of the installation and next steps (Wilfried Hube)

EWeA Offshore 2013 - Side event: 'Offshore wind energy - Potentialities and industrial opportunities in France and in Germany. French-German cross perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Genachte, Anne-Benedicte; Kavafyan, Philippe; Wagner, Andreas; Bour, Gregoire

2013-01-01

At the EWEA Offshore 2013 exhibition, the French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a side-conference on Offshore wind energy and its Potentialities and industrial opportunities in France and in Germany. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, about 50 participants exchanged views on the conditions for the development of a durable offshore wind energy industry both in France and in Germany. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Supporting industrial development of offshore wind in Europe (Anne-Benedicte Genachte); 2 - Offshore wind energy: the Bremerhaven experience. An asset for the deployment of a complete industrial field in France (Philippe Kavafyan); 3 - Status, Prospects and Challenges for Offshore Wind energy in Germany - incl. Legal Framework and Presentation of cost reduction study results (Andreas Wagner); 4 - Offshore grid connection in Germany - Challenges and recommendations (Gregoire Bour)

The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to a westerly wind burst in May 1986

Science.gov (United States)

McPhaden, Michael J.; Freitag, H. Paul; Hayes, Stanley P.; Taft, Bruce A.; Chen, Zeshi; Wyrtki, Klaus

1988-09-01

Western Pacific westerly wind bursts of 1- to 3-week duration are potentially important in triggering and sustaining El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. One such burst of 10-day duration and maximum speeds of greater than 10 m s-1 occurred in May 1986 west of the date line. The response to this westerly wind burst is documented from equatorial current meter moorings, thermistor chain moorings, and sea level and hydrographic data. At 0°, 165°E in the western Pacific the thermocline was depressed by 25 m, sea surface temperature dropped by 0.3°-0.4°C, and sea level rose by 10-15 cm a few days after the maximum in westerly wind speed. Likewise, the South Equatorial Current rapidly accelerated eastward and attained speeds in excess of 100 cm s-1. Vertical shear in an approximately 100 m deep surface layer reversed within a few days of the winds, consistent with a simple model of equatorial mixed layer dynamics in which vertical eddy viscosities are inferred to be O(100 cm2 s-1). A sharp Kelvin wavelike pulse in sea level propagated out of the directly forced region into the central and eastern Pacific. The pulse took 45 days to travel from Tarawa (1°N, 173°E) to La Libertad (2°S, 81°W) on the South American coast, at an average phase speed of about 300 cm s-1. This is of the same order of magnitude as, but significantly higher than, the phase speed of a first baroclinic mode Kelvin wave and is probably the result of Doppler shifting by the Equatorial Undercurrent. A rise in sea surface temperature of about 1°C in 2 days occurred at 0°N, 110°W with the passage of the pulse. However, coincidental meridional advection of a sharp sea surface temperature front, rather than zonal advection of downwelling associated with the pulse, appears to be responsible for this warming. The relevance of this wind-forced pulse to the subsequent evolution of the 1986-1987 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event is discussed in the light of these observations.

75 FR 35650 - Safety Zone; Northern California Annual Fireworks Events, Independence Day Fireworks

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-23

... Zone; Northern California Annual Fireworks Events, Independence Day Fireworks AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS... July Fireworks safety zone from 7 a.m. through 10 p.m. on July 3, 2010 in position 39[deg]13'55.37'' N... will enforce the safety zone for the annual Kings Beach 4th of July Fireworks in 33 CFR 165.1191 on...

Observability of wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonot, J.P.; Fraisse, J.L.

2009-01-01

The total installed capacity of wind power grows from a few hundred MW at the beginning of 2005 to 3400 MW at the end of 2008. With such a trend, a total capacity of 7000 MW could be reached by 2010. The natural variability of wind power and the difficulty of its predictability require a change in the traditional way of managing supply/demand balance, day-ahead margins and the control of electrical flows. As a consequence, RTE operators should be informed quickly and reliably of the real time output power of wind farms and of its evolvement some hours or days ahead to ensure the reliability of the French electrical power system. French specificities are that wind farms are largely spread over the territory, that 95 % of wind farms have an output power below 10 MW and that they are connected to the distribution network. In this context, new tools were necessary to acquire as soon as possible data concerning wind power. In two years long, RTE set up an observatory of wind production 'IPES system' enable to get an access to the technical characteristics of the whole wind farms, to observe in real time 75 % of the wind generation and to implement a forecast model related to wind generation. (authors)

Wind Program Newsletter: October 2014 Edition (Newsletter)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2014-10-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Program Newsletter, supported by the EERE Wind and Water Power Technologies office, highlights the Wind Program's key activities, events, and funding opportunities.

Seventh-day syndrome: a catastrophic event after liver transplantation: case report.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, M; Ferreira, I; Gandara, J; Ferreira, S; Lopes, V; Coelho, A; Vizcaino, R; Marinho, A; Daniel, J; Miranda, H P

2015-05-01

Seventh-day syndrome (7DS) is an early serious complication of liver transplantation, characterized by sudden failure of a previously normally functioning liver graft ∼1 week after the surgery. Although it is an uncommon event, it has major associated mortality. As its etiology is yet to be recognized, the only currently available treatment is retransplantation. We present 3 cases of orthotopic liver transplantation recipients who had an initial uneventful recovery after surgery followed by a dramatic rise of serum liver enzyme levels ∼7 days later and hepatic failure with subsequent graft loss and death despite high-dose immunosuppressive therapy. Histologic findings showed massive centrolobular hemorrhage and hepatocellular necrosis with reduced inflammation. It is essential to review and accumulate more clinical and laboratory information to better understand this syndrome and to better prevent and treat it. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wind power support during overfrequency emergency events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Das, Kaushik; Altin, Müfit; Hansen, Anca Daniela

2018-01-01

system model is developed to analyse the protection settings for this case and then to propose and discuss the design and recommendations for overfrequency control settings for wind turbines. The results of the investigation show that modification of the protection settings alone may not be sufficient...

Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Approach Based on SCADA and Meteorological Information, and Evaluating the Impact of Input-Data Dependency on Forecasting Accuracy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dehua Zheng

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The power generated by wind generators is usually associated with uncertainties, due to the intermittency of wind speed and other weather variables. This creates a big challenge for transmission system operators (TSOs and distribution system operators (DSOs in terms of connecting, controlling and managing power networks with high-penetration wind energy. Hence, in these power networks, accurate wind power forecasts are essential for their reliable and efficient operation. They support TSOs and DSOs in enhancing the control and management of the power network. In this paper, a novel two-stage hybrid approach based on the combination of the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT, genetic algorithm (GA and artificial neural network (ANN is proposed for day-ahead wind power forecasting. The approach is composed of two stages. The first stage utilizes numerical weather prediction (NWP meteorological information to predict wind speed at the exact site of the wind farm. The second stage maps actual wind speed vs. power characteristics recorded by SCADA. Then, the wind speed forecast in the first stage for the future day is fed to the second stage to predict the future day’s wind power. Comparative selection of input-data parameter sets for the forecasting model and impact analysis of input-data dependency on forecasting accuracy have also been studied. The proposed approach achieves significant forecasting accuracy improvement compared with three other artificial intelligence-based forecasting approaches and a benchmark model using the smart persistence method.

Wind Power in Mexico: Simulation of a Wind Farm and Application of Probabilistic Safety Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Martín del Campo–Márquez

2009-10-01

Full Text Available The most important aspects of wind energy in Mexico, including the potential for generating electricity and the major projects planned are presented here. Inparticular, the generation costs are compared to those of other energy sources. The results from the simulation of a 100 MWwind farm in the Tehuantepec Isthmus are also presented. In addition, the environmental impacts related to the wind farm in the mentioned zone are analyzed. Finally, some benefits of using Probabilistic Safety Analysis are discussed with respect to evaluating the risks associated with events that can occur in wind parks, being especially useful for design and maintenance of the parks and the wind turbines themselves. In particular, an event tree was developed to analyze possible accident sequences that could occur when the wind speed is too great. Also, fault trees were developed for each mitigating system considered, in order to determine the relative importance of the wind generator components to the failure sequences, in order to evaluate the yield of suggested improvements and the optimization of maintenance programs.

Extreme Winds from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob

2009-01-01

wind. We examined extreme winds in different places where the strongest wind events are weather phenomena of different scales, including the mid-latitude lows in Denmark, channelling winds in the Gulf of Suez, typhoons in the western North Pacific, cyclones in the Caribbean Sea, local strong winds...

Conference on wind turbines impact on birds and bats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ratzbor, Guenter; Dubourg-Savage, Marie-Jo; Andre, Yann; Kirchstetter, France; Bungart, Rolf; Neau, Paul; Gruendonner, Dieter; Lagrange, Hubert; Rufray, Vincent; Prie, Vincent; Haquart, Alexandre; Melki, Frederic; Fonio, Joseph; Brinkmann, Robert; Hoetker, Hermann; Grajetzki, Bodo; Mammen, Ubbo; Fagot, Guillaume; Hill, Reinhold

2008-01-01

The French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a conference on wind turbines impacts on birds and bats. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, more than 85 participants exchanged views on the impacts of wind energy development on birds and bats mortality, the legal aspects, the research programs and the remedial actions. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Wind energy and nature protection - Is there really a conflict? (Guenter Ratzbor); 2 - Taking bats into account in wind energy projects in the European legal framework (Marie-Jo Dubourg-Savage); 3 - Wind energy-biodiversity national program - Towards a biodiversity label for wind farms (Yann Andre); 4 - Development, construction and operation of a bats-friendly wind farm in France? (France Kirchstetter); 5 - Practical experience of bats protection rules in the framework of German wind energy projects - Examples taken from projects development (Rolf Bungart); 6 - Inclusion of birds and bats issues in wind energy planning documents: schemes and wind energy development area (Paul Neau); 7 - Inclusion of potential threats for birds and bats in the definition of wind energy exploitation areas in Germany (Dieter Gruendonner); 8 - Chirotech - Conciliation between wind energy development and bats preservation - Data collection status, first results and perspectives (Hubert Lagrange, Joseph Fonio); 9 - Bats and wind energy in Germany - Present day situation and research works for conflicts resolution (Robert Brinkmann); 10 - Wind turbines and raptors in Germany: experience gained and presentation of a new research project (Hermann Hoetker); 11 - Birds fauna analysis in the framework of the development of the Cote d'Albatre offshore wind energy project (Guillaume Fagot); 12 - Birds flight remote study methods around FINO 1 (Reinhold Hill)

Air pollution studies in Chicago considering lake breeze events and land use

Science.gov (United States)

Schmeling, M.; Treering, D. J.

2008-12-01

Trace elemental, ionic species and reactive trace gases were monitored and measured in Chicago air during the summers of 2002 to 2005. Weather data obtained for the same time periods provided information about major wind patterns. Sampling times and duration were selected to coincide with lake breezes, which occur with highest frequency in summer. Lake breezes were observed between 14 and 47 percent of total collection days per summer and appeared to be more frequent in the cooler summers of 2003 and 2004. Depending on the predominant wind direction on the day before, pollutants increased briefly during a lake breeze event. On days without the occurrence of a lake breeze, it was found that the highest concentrations of pollutants were transported by southerly wind currents. Some major sources, such as brick and cement manufacturing, steel industry and heavy road traffic, lay in the path of this wind current. Chicago area land use and transportation maps were analyzed using a Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify major industrial complexes, intermodal terminals, highways and railroads. We also included demographic information in the GIS maps to analyze whether certain population groups are disproportionally exposed to air pollution. Our results will not only be interesting for the science community, but also to policy makers when considering air pollutant exposure and are expected to inform decisions regarding air pollution policy in the future.

A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-02-23

The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

Vertical velocity and turbulence aspects during Mistral events as observed by UHF wind profilers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-L. Caccia

2004-11-01

Full Text Available The general purpose of this paper is to experimentally study mesoscale dynamical aspects of the Mistral in the coastal area located at the exit of the Rhône-valley. The Mistral is a northerly low-level flow blowing in southern France along the Rhône-valley axis, located between the French Alps and the Massif Central, towards the Mediterranean Sea. The experimental data are obtained by UHF wind profilers deployed during two major field campaigns, MAP (Mesoscale Alpine Program in autumn 1999, and ESCOMPTE (Expérience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphériques et de Transports d'Emission in summer 2001.

Thanks to the use of the time evolution of the vertical profile of the horizontal wind vector, recent works have shown that the dynamics of the Mistral is highly dependent on the season because of the occurrence of specific synoptic patterns. In addition, during summer, thermal forcing leads to a combination of sea breeze with Mistral and weaker Mistral due to the enhanced friction while, during autumn, absence of convective turbulence leads to substantial acceleration as low-level jets are generated in the stably stratified planetary boundary layer. At the exit of the Rhône valley, the gap flow dynamics dominates, whereas at the lee of the Alps, the dynamics is driven by the relative contribution of "flow around" and "flow over" mechanisms, upstream of the Alps. This paper analyses vertical velocity and turbulence, i.e. turbulent dissipation rate, with data obtained by the same UHF wind profilers during the same Mistral events.

In autumn, the motions are found to be globally and significantly subsident, which is coherent for a dry, cold and stable flow approaching the sea, and the turbulence is found to be of pure dynamical origin (wind shears and mountain/lee wave breaking, which is coherent with non-convective situations.

Variability of extreme wet events over Malawi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libanda Brigadier

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Adverse effects of extreme wet events are well documented by several studies around the world. These effects are exacerbated in developing countries like Malawi that have insufficient risk reduction strategies and capacity to cope with extreme wet weather. Ardent monitoring of the variability of extreme wet events over Malawi is therefore imperative. The use of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI has been recommended by many studies as an effective way of quantifying extreme wet events. In this study, ETCCDI indices were used to examine the number of heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rainfall days; daily and five-day maximum rainfall; very wet and extremely wet days; annual wet days and simple daily intensity. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT was employed at 5% significance level before any statistical test was done. Trend analysis was done using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test. All stations were found to be homogeneous apart from Mimosa. Trend results show high temporal and spatial variability with the only significant results being: increase in daily maximum rainfall (Rx1day over Karonga and Bvumbwe, increase in five-day maximum rainfall (Rx5day over Bvumbwe. Mzimba and Chileka recorded a significant decrease in very wet days (R95p while a significant increase was observed over Thyolo. Chileka was the only station which observed a significant trend (decrease in extremely wet rainfall (R99p. Mzimba was the only station that reported a significant trend (decrease in annual wet-day rainfall total (PRCPTOT and Thyolo was the only station that reported a significant trend (increase in simple daily intensity (SDII. Furthermore, the findings of this study revealed that, during wet years, Malawi is characterised by an anomalous convergence of strong south-easterly and north-easterly winds. This convergence is the main rain bringing mechanism to Malawi.

Solar wind dynamic pressure variations and transient magnetospheric signatures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sibeck, D.G.; Baumjohann, W.

1989-01-01

Contrary to the prevailing popular view, we find some transient ground events with bipolar north-south signatures are related to variations in solar wind dynamic pressure and not necessarily to magnetic merging. We present simultaneous solar wind plasma observations for two previously reported transient ground events observed at dayside auroral latitudes. During the first event, originally reported by Lanzerotti et al. [1987], conjugate ground magnetometers recorded north-south magetic field deflections in the east-west and vertical directions. The second event was reported by Todd et al. [1986], we noted ground rader observations indicating strong northward then southward ionospheric flows. The events were associated with the postulated signatures of patchy, sporadic, merging of magnetosheath and magnetospheric magnetic field lines at the dayside magnetospause, known as flux transfer events. Conversely, we demonstrate that the event reported by Lanzerotti et al. was accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind dynamic pressure, a magnetospheric compression, and a consequent ringing of the magnetospheric magnetic field. The event reported by Todd et al. was associated with a brief but sharp increase in the solar wind dynamic pressure. copyright American Geophysical Union 1989

Icing losses on wind turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duncan, T.; Fotsing, I.; Pearson, S. [Garrad Hassan Canada Inc., Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2010-07-01

This PowerPoint presentation discussed some of the energy losses that can occur as a result of icing on wind turbines. Airfoil deterioration can occur in the presence of rime and glaze ice. Anemometers are also impacted by ice, and shut-downs can occur as a result of icing events. Availability deficits that occur during the winter months can lead to annual energy losses of 0.5 percent. The impact of icing events on total wind power energy production in Quebec is estimated at between 1.3 percent to 2.7 percent. Ice loss estimates are considered during the pre-construction phases of wind power projects. However, ice loss prediction methods are often inaccurate. Studies have demonstrated that preconstruction masts show a reasonable correlation with wind turbine icing, and that icing losses are site-specific. tabs., figs.

Turbulent Reynolds stress and quadrant event activity in wind flow over a coastal foredune

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, Connie A.; Walker, Ian J.; Hesp, Patrick A.; Bauer, Bernard O.; Davidson-Arnott, Robin G. D.

2012-05-01

Recent research on quasi-instantaneous turbulent kinematic Reynolds stresses (RS, - u'w') and decomposed quadrant event activity (e.g., ejections and sweeps) over dunes in fluvial settings and in wind tunnels has shown that turbulent stresses at the toe of a dune often exceed time-averaged, streamwise shear stress (ρ u * 2) estimates. It is believed that semi-coherent turbulent structures are conveyed toward the bed along concave streamlines in this region and that impact of these structures cause fluctuations in local surface stresses that assist in grain entrainment. This has been hypothesized to explain how sand is supplied to the windward slope through a region of flow stagnation. Toward the crest, surface stress increases and becomes dominated by streamwise accelerations resulting from streamline compression and convexity that suppress vertical motions. High-frequency (32 Hz) measurements of turbulent wind flow from 3-D ultrasonic anemometers are analyzed for oblique onshore flow over a vegetated coastal foredune in Prince Edward Island, Canada. Reynolds stress and quadrant activity distributions varied with height (0.60 m and 1.66 m) and location over the dune. In general, quadrant 2 ejection (u' 0) and quadrant 4 sweep activity (u' > 0, w' 0, w' > 0) and quadrant 3 inward interaction (u' dune and may help to explain sand transport potential and dune maintenance. For example, areas with a high frequency of ejection and sweep activity may have higher rates of sediment entrainment and transport, whereas areas with lower ejection and sweep activity and an increase in outward and inward interactions, which contribute negatively to Reynolds stress generation, may experience a greater potential for deposition. Further research on associations between quadrant event activity and coincident sand transport is required to confirm this hypothesis and the resultant significance of the flow exuberance effect in aeolian dune morphodynamics.

He II lambda-4686 in Eta Carinae: Collapse of the Wind-Wind Collision Region During Periastron Passage

Science.gov (United States)

Teodoro, M.; Damineli, A.; Arias, J. I.; DeAraujo, F. X.; Barba, R. H.; Corcoran, M. F.; Fernandes, M. Borges; Fernandez-Lajus, E.; Fraga, L.; Gamen, R. C.;

Short-term Wind Forecasting at Wind Farms using WRF-LES and Actuator Disk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kirkil, Gokhan

2017-04-01

Short-term wind forecasts are obtained for a wind farm on a mountainous terrain using WRF-LES. Multi-scale simulations are also performed using different PBL parameterizations. Turbines are parameterized using Actuator Disc Model. LES models improved the forecasts. Statistical error analysis is performed and ramp events are analyzed. Complex topography of the study area affects model performance, especially the accuracy of wind forecasts were poor for cross valley-mountain flows. By means of LES, we gain new knowledge about the sources of spatial and temporal variability of wind fluctuations such as the configuration of wind turbines.

Northerly surface winds over the eastern North Pacific Ocean in spring and summer

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, S.V.; Cayan, D.R.; Graham, N.E.; Georgakakos, K.P.

2008-01-01

Persistent spring and summer northerly surface winds are the defining climatological feature of the western coast of North America, especially south of the Oregon coast. Northerly surface winds are important for upwelling and a vast array of other biological, oceanic, and atmospheric processes. Intermittence in northerly coastal surface wind is characterized and wind events are quantitatively defined using coastal buoy data south of Cape Mendocino on the northern California coast. The defined wind events are then used as a basis for composites in order to explain the spatial evolution of various atmospheric and oceanic processes. Wind events involve large-scale changes in the three-dimensional atmospheric circulation including the eastern North Pacific subtropical anticyclone and southeast trade winds. Composites of QSCAT satellite scatterometer wind estimates from 1999 to 2005 based on a single coastal buoy indicate that wind events typically last 72-96 h and result in anomalies in surface wind and Ekman pumping that extend over 1000 kin from the west coast of North America. It may be useful to consider ocean circulation and dependent ecosystem dynamics and the distribution of temperature, moisture, and aerosols in the atmospheric boundary layer in the context of wind events defined herein. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Characteristics of Solar Wind Density Depletions During Solar Cycles 23 and 24

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keunchan Park

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Solar wind density depletions are phenomena that solar wind density is rapidly decreased and keep the state. They are generally believed to be caused by the interplanetary (IP shocks. However, there are other cases that are hardly associated with IP shocks. We set up a hypothesis for this phenomenon and analyze this study. We have collected the solar wind parameters such as density, speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF data related to the solar wind density depletion events during the period from 1996 to 2013 that are obtained with the advanced composition explorer (ACE and the Wind satellite. We also calculate two pressures (magnetic, dynamic and analyze the relation with density depletion. As a result, we found total 53 events and the most these phenomena’s sources caused by IP shock are interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME. We also found that solar wind density depletions are scarcely related with IP shock’s parameters. The solar wind density is correlated with solar wind dynamic pressure within density depletion. However, the solar wind density has an little anti-correlation with IMF strength during all events of solar wind density depletion, regardless of the presence of IP shocks. Additionally, In 47 events of IP shocks, we find 6 events that show a feature of blast wave. The quantities of IP shocks are weaker than blast wave from the Sun, they are declined in a short time after increasing rapidly. We thus argue that IMF strength or dynamic pressure are an important factor in understanding the nature of solar wind density depletion. Since IMF strength and solar wind speed varies with solar cycle, we will also investigate the characteristics of solar wind density depletion events in different phases of solar cycle as an additional clue to their physical nature.

Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González-Aparicio, I.; Zucker, A.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Reduction wind power forecasting uncertainty for day ahead and intraday markets. • Statistical relationship between total load and wind power generation. • Accurately forecast expected revenues from wind producer’s perspective. - Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from variable renewable energy sources increases the stochastic nature of the power system. This has repercussions on the markets for electricity. Deviations from forecasted production schedules require balancing of a generator’s position within a day. Short term products that are traded on power and/or reserve markets have been developed for this purpose, providing opportunities to actors who can offer flexibility in the short term. The value of flexibility is typically modelled using stochastic scenario extensions of dispatch models which requires, as a first step, understanding the nature of forecast uncertainties. This study provides a new approach for determining the forecast errors of wind power generation in the time period between the closure of the day ahead and the opening of the first intraday session using Spain as an example. The methodology has been developed using time series analysis for the years 2010–2013 to find the explanatory variables of the wind error variability by applying clustering techniques to reduce the range of uncertainty, and regressive techniques to forecast the probability density functions of the intra-day price. This methodology has been tested considering different system actions showing its suitability for developing intra-day bidding strategies and also for the generation of electricity generated from Renewable Energy Sources scenarios. This methodology could help a wind power producer to optimally bid into the intraday market based on more accurate scenarios, increasing their revenues and the system value of wind.

Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during intense magnetic storms (1978--1979)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez, W.D.; Tsurutani, B.T.; Gonzalez, A.L.C.; Smith, E.J.; Tang, F.; Akasofu, S.

1989-01-01

The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling problem is investigated for the ten intense magnetic storms (Dst <-100 nT) that occurred during the 500 days (August 16, 1978 to December 28, 1979) studied by Gonzalez and Tsurutani [1987]. This investigation concentrates on the ring current energization in terms of solar wind parameters, in order to explain the | -Dst | growth observed during these storms. Thus several coupling functions are tested as energy input and several sets of the ring current decay time-constant τ are searched to find best correlations with the Dst response. From the fairly large correlation coefficients found in this study, there is strong evidence that large scale magnetopause reconnection operates during such intense storm events and that the solar wind ram pressure plays an important role in the ring current energization. Thus a ram pressure correction factor is suggested for expressions concerning the reconnection power during time intervals with large ram pressure variations

Estimate of airborne release of plutonium from Babcock and Wilcox plant as a result of severe wind hazard and earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishima, J.; Schwendiman, L.C.; Ayer, J.E.

1978-10-01

As part of an interdisciplinary study to evaluate the potential radiological consequences of wind hazard and earthquake upon existing commercial mixed oxide fuel fabrication plants, the potential mass airborne releases of plutonium (source terms) from such events are estimated. The estimated souce terms are based upon the fraction of enclosures damaged to three levels of severity (crush, puncture penetrate, and loss of external filter, in order of decreasing severity), called damage ratio, and the airborne release if all enclosures suffered that level of damage. The discussion of damage scenarios and source terms is divided into wind hazard and earthquake scenarios in order of increasing severity. The largest airborne releases from the building were for cases involving the catastrophic collapse of the roof over the major production areas--wind hazard at 110 mph and earthquakes with peak ground accelerations of 0.20 to 0.29 g. Wind hazards at higher air velocities and earthquakes with higher ground acceleration do not result in significantly greater source terms. The source terms were calculated as additional mass of respirable particles released with time up to 4 days; and, under these assumptions, approximately 98% of the mass of material of concern is made airborne from 2 h to 4 days after the event. The overall building source terms from the damage scenarios evaluated are shown in a table. The contribution of individual areas to the overall building source term is presented in order of increasing severity for wind hazard and earthquake

Science Hack Day: an opportunity for public engagement, art/science mash-ups, and inspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Bellis, Matthew

2013-04-01

The idea of a Science Hack Day (http://sciencehackday.com/) is to put non-scientists (designers, web developers, artists, interested enthusiasts) in a room with scientists and some good ideas, and see what science-themed project they can create in a weekend (about 24 hours of real hacking). The motto of the organizers is ``Get Excited and Make Things with Science!'' I have participated in several of these events including the first one held in the United State in Palo Alto in 2010 and as a remote advisor to participants in Nairobi, Kenya. To these events I have brought particle physics data from both the BaBar and the CMS (Compact Muon Solenoid) experiments, data from the CoGeNT dark matter direct-detection experiment, and my expertise and enthusiasm. The experience has been transformative for me as both a scientist and a science advocate. This talk will recount my experiences with Science Hack Day events in general and detail some projects that have come out of these days, including the Particle Physics Wind Chime (http://www.mattbellis.com/windchime/) and the Standard Model of Cocktail Physics (http://www.physicsdavid.net/2012/11/standard-model-of-cocktail-physics/). Opportunities for other scientists to take part in similar events will be discussed.

Investigation of wind characteristics and assessment of wind energy potential for Waterloo region, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Meishen; Li Xianguo

2005-01-01

Wind energy becomes more and more attractive as one of the clean renewable energy resources. Knowledge of the wind characteristics is of great importance in the exploitation of wind energy resources for a site. It is essential in designing or selecting a wind energy conversion system for any application. This study examines the wind characteristics for the Waterloo region in Canada based on a data source measured at an elevation 10 m above the ground level over a 5-year period (1999-2003) with the emphasis on the suitability for wind energy technology applications. Characteristics such as annual, seasonal, monthly and diurnal wind speed variations and wind direction variations are examined. Wind speed data reveal that the windy months in Waterloo are from November to April, defined as the Cold Season in this study, with February being the windiest month. It is helpful that the high heating demand in the Cold Season coincides with the windy season. Analysis shows that the day time is the windy time, with 2 p.m. in the afternoon being the windiest moment. Moreover, a model derived from the maximum entropy principle (MEP) is applied to determine the diurnal, monthly, seasonal and yearly wind speed frequency distributions, and the corresponding Lagrangian parameters are determined. Based on these wind speed distributions, this study quantifies the available wind energy potential to provide practical information for the application of wind energy in this area. The yearly average wind power density is 105 W/m 2 . The day and night time wind power density in the Cold Season is 180 and 111 W/m 2 , respectively

How good are remote sensors at measuring extreme winds?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sathe, A.R.; Courtney, M.; Mann, J.; Wagner, R.

2011-01-01

This article describes some preliminary efforts within the SafeWind project, aimed to identify the possible added value of using wind lidars to detect extreme wind events. Exceptionally good performance is now regularly reported in the measurement of the mean wind speed with some wind lidars in flat

Data Mining Methods to Generate Severe Wind Gust Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subana Shanmuganathan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Gaining knowledge on weather patterns, trends and the influence of their extremes on various crop production yields and quality continues to be a quest by scientists, agriculturists, and managers. Precise and timely information aids decision-making, which is widely accepted as intrinsically necessary for increased production and improved quality. Studies in this research domain, especially those related to data mining and interpretation are being carried out by the authors and their colleagues. Some of this work that relates to data definition, description, analysis, and modelling is described in this paper. This includes studies that have evaluated extreme dry/wet weather events against reported yield at different scales in general. They indicate the effects of weather extremes such as prolonged high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and severe wind gusts. Occurrences of these events are among the main weather extremes that impact on many crops worldwide. Wind gusts are difficult to anticipate due to their rapid manifestation and yet can have catastrophic effects on crops and buildings. This paper examines the use of data mining methods to reveal patterns in the weather conditions, such as time of the day, month of the year, wind direction, speed, and severity using a data set from a single location. Case study data is used to provide examples of how the methods used can elicit meaningful information and depict it in a fashion usable for management decision making. Historical weather data acquired between 2008 and 2012 has been used for this study from telemetry devices installed in a vineyard in the north of New Zealand. The results show that using data mining techniques and the local weather conditions, such as relative pressure, temperature, wind direction and speed recorded at irregular intervals, can produce new knowledge relating to wind gust patterns for vineyard management decision making.

Interplanetary Parameters Leading to Relativistic Electron Enhancement and Persistent Depletion Events at Geosynchronous Orbit and Potential for Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Pinto, Victor A.; Kim, Hee-Jeong; Lyons, Larry R.; Bortnik, Jacob

2018-02-01

We have identified 61 relativistic electron enhancement events and 21 relativistic electron persistent depletion events during 1996 to 2006 from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 8 and 10 using data from the Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) >2 MeV fluxes. We then performed a superposed epoch time analysis of the events to find the characteristic solar wind parameters that determine the occurrence of such events, using the OMNI database. We found that there are clear differences between the enhancement events and the persistent depletion events, and we used these to establish a set of threshold values in solar wind speed, proton density and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz that can potentially be useful to predict sudden increases in flux. Persistent depletion events are characterized by a low solar wind speed, a sudden increase in proton density that remains elevated for a few days, and a northward turning of IMF Bz shortly after the depletion starts. We have also found that all relativistic electron enhancement or persistent depletion events occur when some geomagnetic disturbance is present, either a coronal mass ejection or a corotational interaction region; however, the storm index, SYM-H, does not show a strong connection with relativistic electron enhancement events or persistent depletion events. We have tested a simple threshold method for predictability of relativistic electron enhancement events using data from GOES 11 for the years 2007-2010 and found that around 90% of large increases in electron fluxes can be identified with this method.

ACE/SWICS OBSERVATIONS OF HEAVY ION DROPOUTS WITHIN THE SOLAR WIND

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weberg, Micah J. [PhD Candidate in Space and Planetary Physics, 2435 Space Research Building, 2455 Hayward Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143, USA. (United States); Zurbuchen, Thomas H. [Professor, Space Science and Aerospace Engineering, Associate Dean for Entrepreneurship, 2429 Space Research Building, 2455 Hayward Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143, USA. (United States); Lepri, Susan T., E-mail: mjweberg@umich.edu, E-mail: thomasz@umich.edu, E-mail: slepri@umich.edu [Associate Research Scientist, 2417 Space Research Building, 2455 Hayward Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143, USA. (United States)

2012-11-20

We present the first in situ observations of heavy ion dropouts within the slow solar wind, observed for select elements ranging from helium to iron. For iron, these dropouts manifest themselves as depletions of the Fe/H ratio by factors up to {approx}25. The events often exhibit mass-dependent fractionation and are contained in slow, unsteady wind found within a few days from known stream interfaces. We propose that such dropouts are evidence of gravitational settling within large coronal loops, which later undergo interchange reconnection and become source regions of slow, unsteady wind. Previously, spectroscopic studies by Raymond et al. in 1997 (and later Feldman et al. in 1999) have yielded strong evidence for gravitational settling within these loops. However, their expected in situ signature plasma with heavy elements fractionated by mass was not observed prior to this study. Using data from the SWICS instrument on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), we investigate the composition of the solar wind within these dropouts and explore long term trends over most of a solar cycle.

ACE/SWICS OBSERVATIONS OF HEAVY ION DROPOUTS WITHIN THE SOLAR WIND

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weberg, Micah J.; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Lepri, Susan T.

2012-01-01

We present the first in situ observations of heavy ion dropouts within the slow solar wind, observed for select elements ranging from helium to iron. For iron, these dropouts manifest themselves as depletions of the Fe/H ratio by factors up to ∼25. The events often exhibit mass-dependent fractionation and are contained in slow, unsteady wind found within a few days from known stream interfaces. We propose that such dropouts are evidence of gravitational settling within large coronal loops, which later undergo interchange reconnection and become source regions of slow, unsteady wind. Previously, spectroscopic studies by Raymond et al. in 1997 (and later Feldman et al. in 1999) have yielded strong evidence for gravitational settling within these loops. However, their expected in situ signature plasma with heavy elements fractionated by mass was not observed prior to this study. Using data from the SWICS instrument on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), we investigate the composition of the solar wind within these dropouts and explore long term trends over most of a solar cycle.

Planetary wave-gravity wave interactions during mesospheric inversion layer events

Science.gov (United States)

Ramesh, K.; Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Bhavani Kumar, Y.

2013-07-01

lidar temperature observations over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show a few mesospheric inversion layer (MIL) events during 20-25 January 2007. The zonal mean removed SABER temperature shows warm anomalies around 50°E and 275°E indicating the presence of planetary wave of zonal wave number 2. The MIL amplitudes in SABER temperature averaged for 10°N-15°N and 70°E-90°E show a clear 2 day wave modulation during 20-28 January 2007. Prior to 20 January 2007, a strong 2day wave (zonal wave number 2) is observed in the height region of 80-90 km and it gets largely suppressed during 20-26 January 2007 as the condition for vertical propagation is not favorable, though it prevails at lower heights. The 10 day mean zonal wind over Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E) shows deceleration of eastward winds indicating the westward drag due to wave dissipation. The nightly mean MF radar observed zonal winds show the presence of alternating eastward and westward winds during the period of 20-26 January 2007. The two dimensional spectrum of Rayleigh lidar temperature observations available for the nights of 20, 22, and 24 January 2007 shows the presence of gravity wave activity with periods 18 min, 38 min, 38 min, and vertical wavelengths 6.4 km, 4.0 km, 6.4 km respectively. From the dispersion relation of gravity waves, it is inferred that these waves are internal gravity waves rather than inertia gravity waves with the horizontal phase speeds of ~40 m/s, ~37 m/s, and ~50 m/s respectively. Assuming the gravity waves are eastward propagating waves, they get absorbed only in the eastward local wind fields of the planetary wave thereby causing turbulence and eddy diffusion which can be inferred from the estimation of large drag force due to the breaking of gravity wave leading to the formation of large amplitude inversion events in alternate nights. The present study shows that, the mesospheric temperature inversion is caused mainly due to the gravity wave breaking and the inversion

A Comparison of the Performance of Advanced Statistical Techniques for the Refinement of Day-ahead and Longer NWP-based Wind Power Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Zack, J. W.

2015-12-01

Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the foundation for wind power forecasts for day-ahead and longer forecast horizons. The NWP models directly produce three-dimensional wind forecasts on their respective computational grids. These can be interpolated to the location and time of interest. However, these direct predictions typically contain significant systematic errors ("biases"). This is due to a variety of factors including the limited space-time resolution of the NWP models and shortcomings in the model's representation of physical processes. It has become common practice to attempt to improve the raw NWP forecasts by statistically adjusting them through a procedure that is widely known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). The challenge is to identify complex patterns of systematic errors and then use this knowledge to adjust the NWP predictions. The MOS-based improvements are the basis for much of the value added by commercial wind power forecast providers. There are an enormous number of statistical approaches that can be used to generate the MOS adjustments to the raw NWP forecasts. In order to obtain insight into the potential value of some of the newer and more sophisticated statistical techniques often referred to as "machine learning methods" a MOS-method comparison experiment has been performed for wind power generation facilities in 6 wind resource areas of California. The underlying NWP models that provided the raw forecasts were the two primary operational models of the US National Weather Service: the GFS and NAM models. The focus was on 1- and 2-day ahead forecasts of the hourly wind-based generation. The statistical methods evaluated included: (1) screening multiple linear regression, which served as a baseline method, (2) artificial neural networks, (3) a decision-tree approach called random forests, (4) gradient boosted regression based upon an decision-tree algorithm, (5) support vector regression and (6) analog ensemble

EWEA 2012: conference on the legal framework of wind energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Froeding, Veronique; Iuga, Dorina; Lintker, Stephanus; Edlich, Sophie

2012-01-01

At the occasion of 2012 Europe Wind energy event (EWEA), the French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a conference on the legal framework of wind energy. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, participants exchanged views on the French and German respective regulations and administrative procedures for wind energy projects. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Synthesis note of the wind turbines French regulation (Veronique Froeding); 2 - Wind Barriers Presentation - Administrative and Grid access barriers (Dorina Iuga); 3 - Wind energy in France - Legal framework: what's new? (Veronique Froeding); 4 - North Rhine-Westphalia and the Wind energy Decree from July 2011: NRW Pioneer in Wind energy in Germany (Stephanus Lintker); 5 - Duration and development costs of wind energy projects in France and in Germany (Sophie Edlich)

Single ICMEs and Complex Transient Structures in the Solar Wind in 2010 - 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Rodkin, D.; Slemzin, V.; Zhukov, A. N.; Goryaev, F.; Shugay, Y.; Veselovsky, I.

2018-05-01

the single-source and multi-source solar wind structures and compared them with the ICME signatures determined from the kinematic and magnetic field parameters of the solar wind. In single-source events, the ion charge state, as a rule, has a one-peak enhancement with an average duration of about one day, which is similar to the mean ICME duration of 1.12 days derived from the Richardson and Cane list. In the multi-source events, the total profile of the ion charge state consists of a sequence of enhancements that is associated with the interaction between the participating streams. On average, the total duration of the complex structures that appear as a result of the CME-CME and CME-HSS interactions as determined from their ion composition is 2.4 days, which is more than twice longer than that of the single-source events.

A COMPARISON OF ELEMENTAL ABUNDANCE RATIOS IN SEP EVENTS IN FAST AND SLOW SOLAR WIND REGIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kahler, S. W.; Tylka, A. J.; Reames, D. V.

2009-01-01

The solar energetic (E > 1 MeV nucleon -1 ) particles (SEPs) observed in gradual events at 1 AU are assumed to be accelerated by coronal/interplanetary shocks from ambient thermal or suprathermal seed particles. If so, then the elemental abundances of SEPs produced in different solar wind (SW) stream types (transient, fast, and slow) might be systematically distinguished from each other. We look for these differences in SEP energy spectra and in elemental abundance ratios (including Mg/Ne and Fe/C, which compare low/high first ionization potential elements), in a large number of SEP time intervals over the past solar cycle. The SW regions are characterized by the three-component stream classification of Richardson et al. Our survey shows no significant compositional or energy spectral differences in the 5-10 MeV nucleon -1 range for SEP events of different SW stream types. This result extends the earlier finding that SEP events are observed frequently in fast SW streams, although their higher Alfven and SW flow speeds should constrain SEP production by coronal mass ejection-driven shocks in those regions. We discuss the implications of our results for shock seed populations and cross-field propagation.

Lightning Location System Data from Wind Power Plants Compared to Meteorological Conditions of Warm- and Cold Thunderstorm Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogel, Stephan; Lopez, Javier; Garolera, Anna Candela

2016-01-01

of topography, height above mean sea level (AMSL), and average ground flash density. For three sites, the most severe lightning events have been identified during the warm and cold months whereas the other two locations exhibit severe lightning detections mainly during the warm months. In this work severity......Five years of Lightning Location System (LLS) data from five different wind turbine sites in Europe are analysed. The sites are located in Croatia, Italy, Spain, France and one offshore wind power plant in the North sea. Each location exhibits individual characteristic properties in terms...... of such an episode can vary from tens of minutes to several hours in the case of new storms being continuously developed in the same area. The distance of the charge separating -10◦ C and the ground is usually larger than 3000 meters. This analyse provides information about the different thunderstorm types which...

Wind-wave amplification mechanisms: possible models for steep wave events in finite depth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Montalvo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available We extend the Miles mechanism of wind-wave generation to finite depth. A β-Miles linear growth rate depending on the depth and wind velocity is derived and allows the study of linear growth rates of surface waves from weak to moderate winds in finite depth h. The evolution of β is plotted, for several values of the dispersion parameter kh with k the wave number. For constant depths we find that no matter what the values of wind velocities are, at small enough wave age the β-Miles linear growth rates are in the known deep-water limit. However winds of moderate intensities prevent the waves from growing beyond a critical wave age, which is also constrained by the water depth and is less than the wave age limit of deep water. Depending on wave age and wind velocity, the Jeffreys and Miles mechanisms are compared to determine which of them dominates. A wind-forced nonlinear Schrödinger equation is derived and the Akhmediev, Peregrine and Kuznetsov–Ma breather solutions for weak wind inputs in finite depth h are obtained.

Can Weather Radars Help Monitoring and Forecasting Wind Power Fluctuations at Large Offshore Wind Farms?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2011-01-01

The substantial impact of wind power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms calls for the development of dedicated monitoring and prediction approaches. Based on recent findings, a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) was installed at Horns Rev with the aim of improving predictability, controlability...... and potentially maintenance planning. Additional images are available from a Doppler radar covering the same area. The parallel analysis of rain events detection and of regime sequences in wind (and power) fluctuations demonstrates the interest of employing weather radars for a better operation and management...... of offshore wind farms....

On the spatial structure and time evolution of shamal winds over the Arabian Sea – a case study through numerical modelling.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

VinodKumar, K.; Seemanth, M.; Vethamony, P.; Aboobacker, V.M.

and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate a major winter shamal event (having duration of 3–5?days), which occurred in 2008 and analysed the spatial structure and time evolution of shamal winds over the Arabian Sea (AS). The study reveals that horizontally, shamal...

Integration of wind generation forecasts. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlstrom, M.; Zavadil, B.; Jones, L.

2005-01-01

WindLogics is a company that specializes in atmospheric modelling, visualization and fine-scale forecasting systems for the wind power industry. A background of the organization was presented. The complexities of wind modelling were discussed. Issues concerning location and terrain, shear, diurnal and interannual variability were reviewed. It was suggested that wind power producers should aim to be mainstream, and that variability should be considered as intrinsic to fuel supply. Various utility operating impacts were outlined. Details of an Xcel NSP wind integration study were presented, as well as a studies conducted in New York state and Colorado. It was concluded that regulations and load following impacts with wind energy integration are modest. Overall impacts are dominated by costs incurred to accommodate wind generation variability and uncertainty in the day-ahead time frame. Cost impacts can be reduced with adjustments to operating strategies, improvements in wind forecasting and access to real-time markets. Details of WindLogic's wind energy forecast system were presented, as well as examples of day ahead and hour ahead forecasts and wind speed and power forecasts. Screenshots of control room integration, EMS integration and simulations were presented. Details of a utility-scale wind energy forecasting system funded by Xcel Renewable Development Fund (RDF) were also presented. The goal of the system was to optimize the way that wind forecast information is integrated into the control room environment. Project components were outlined. It was concluded that accurate day-ahead forecasting can lead to significant asset optimization. It was recommended that wind plants share data, and aim to resolve issues concerning grid codes and instrumentation. refs., tabs., figs

Forest trees filter chronic wind-signals to acclimate to high winds.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnesoeur, Vivien; Constant, Thiéry; Moulia, Bruno; Fournier, Meriem

2016-05-01

Controlled experiments have shown that trees acclimate thigmomorphogenetically to wind-loads by sensing their deformation (strain). However, the strain regime in nature is exposed to a full spectrum of winds. We hypothesized that trees avoid overreacting by responding only to winds which bring information on local climate and/or wind exposure. Additionally, competition for light dependent on tree social status also likely affects thigmomorphogenesis. We monitored and manipulated quantitatively the strain regimes of 15 pairs of beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees of contrasting social status in an acclimated stand, and quantified the effects of these regimes on the radial growth over a vegetative season. Trees exposed to artificial bending, the intensity of which corresponds to the strongest wind-induced strains, enhanced their secondary growth by at least 80%. Surprisingly, this reaction was even greater - relatively - for suppressed trees than for dominant ones. Acclimated trees did not sense the different types of wind events in the same way. Daily wind speed peaks due to thermal winds were filtered out. Thigmomorphogenesis was therefore driven by intense storms. Thigmomorphogenesis is also likely to be involved in determining social status. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

On the Relationship Between High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Radiation Belt Electron Fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yihua

2011-01-01

Both past and recent research results indicate that solar wind speed has a close connection to radiation belt electron fluxes [e.g., Paulikas and Blake, 1979; Reeves et aI., 2011]: a higher solar wind speed is often associated with a higher level of radiation electron fluxes. But the relationship can be very complex [Reeves et aI., 2011]. The study presented here provides further corroboration of this viewpoint by emphasizing the importance of a global perspective and time history. We find that all the events during years 2010 and 2011 where the >0.8 MeV integral electron flux exceeds 10(exp 5) particles/sq cm/sr/s (pfu) at GEO orbit are associated with the high speed streams (HSS) following the onset of the Stream Interaction Region (SIR), with most of them belonging to the long-lasting Corotating Interaction Region (CIR). Our preliminary results indicate that during HSS events, a maximum speed of 700 km/s and above is a sufficient but not necessary condition for the > 0.8 MeV electron flux to reach 10(exp 5) pfu. But in the exception cases of HSS events where the electron flux level exceeds the 10(exp 5) pfu value but the maximum solar wind speed is less than 700 km/s, a prior impact can be noted either from a CME or a transient SIR within 3-4 days before the arrival of the HSS - stressing the importance of time history. Through superposed epoch analysis and studies providing comparisons with the CME events and the HSS events where the flux level fails to reach the 10(exp 5) pfu, we will present the quantitative assessment of behaviors and relationships of various quantities, such as the time it takes to reach the flux threshold value from the stream interface and its dependence on different physical parameters (e.g., duration of the HSS event, its maximum or average of the solar wind speed, IMF Bz, Kp). The ultimate goal is to apply what is derived to space weather forecasting.

Simulation and verification of transient events in large wind power installations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Christensen, P.

2003-01-01

of two wind turbines, and voltage steps caused by tripping of wind turbines and by manual transformer tap-changing. A Benchmark model is also presented, enabling the reader to test own simulation results againstresults obtained with models developed in EMTDC and DIgSILENT. This survey on of generator...

CubeSat Constellation Cloud Winds(C3Winds) A New Wind Observing System to Study Mesoscale Cloud Dynamics and Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, D. L.; Kelly, M.A.; Yee, J.-H.; Boldt, J.; Demajistre, R.; Reynolds, E. L.; Tripoli, G. J.; Oman, L. D.; Prive, N.; Heidinger, A. K.;

Metric of the 2–6 day sea-surface temperature response to wind stress in the Tropical Pacific and its sensitivity to the K-Profile Parameterization of vertical mixing

KAUST Repository

Wagman, Benjamin M.

2014-05-04

Uncertainty in wind forcing has long hampered direct tests of ocean model output against observations for the purpose of refining the boundary layer K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) of oceanic vertical mixing. Considered here is a short-term metric that could be sensitive to the ways in which the KPP directly affects the adjustment of sea surface temperatures for a given change in wind stress. In particular a metric is developed based on the lagged correlation between the 2–6 day filtered wind stress and sea surface temperature. The metric is normalized by estimated observational and model uncertainties such that the significance of differences may be assessed. For this purpose multiple wind reanalysis products and their blended combinations were used to represent the range of forcing uncertainty, while perturbed KPP parameter model runs explore the sensitivity of the metric to the parameterization of vertical mixing. The correlation metric is sensitive to perturbations to most KPP parameters, in ways that accord with expectations, although only a few parameters show a sensitivity on the same order as the sensitivity to switching between wind products. This suggests that uncertainties in wind forcing continue to be a significant limitation for applying direct observational tests of KPP physics. Moreover, model correlations are biased high, suggesting that the model lacks or does not resolve sources of variability on the 2–6 day time scale.

Metric of the 2–6 day sea-surface temperature response to wind stress in the Tropical Pacific and its sensitivity to the K-Profile Parameterization of vertical mixing

KAUST Repository

Wagman, Benjamin M.; Jackson, Charles S.; Yao, Fengchao; Zedler, Sarah; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2014-01-01

Uncertainty in wind forcing has long hampered direct tests of ocean model output against observations for the purpose of refining the boundary layer K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) of oceanic vertical mixing. Considered here is a short-term metric that could be sensitive to the ways in which the KPP directly affects the adjustment of sea surface temperatures for a given change in wind stress. In particular a metric is developed based on the lagged correlation between the 2–6 day filtered wind stress and sea surface temperature. The metric is normalized by estimated observational and model uncertainties such that the significance of differences may be assessed. For this purpose multiple wind reanalysis products and their blended combinations were used to represent the range of forcing uncertainty, while perturbed KPP parameter model runs explore the sensitivity of the metric to the parameterization of vertical mixing. The correlation metric is sensitive to perturbations to most KPP parameters, in ways that accord with expectations, although only a few parameters show a sensitivity on the same order as the sensitivity to switching between wind products. This suggests that uncertainties in wind forcing continue to be a significant limitation for applying direct observational tests of KPP physics. Moreover, model correlations are biased high, suggesting that the model lacks or does not resolve sources of variability on the 2–6 day time scale.

Nordic wind power conference 2007. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cutululis, Nicolaos; Soerensen, Poul

2007-11-01

This fourth Nordic Wind Power Conference was focused on power system integration and electrical systems of wind turbines and wind farms. NWPC presents the newest research results related to technical electrical aspects of wind power, spanning from power system integration to electrical design and control of wind turbines. The first NWPC was held in Trondheim (2000), Norway, the second in Gothenburg (2004), Sweden, and the third in Espoo (2006), Finland. Invited speakers, oral presentation of papers and poster sessions ensured this to be a valuable event for professionals and high-level students wanting to strengthen their knowledge on wind power integration and electrical systems. (au)

Nordic wind power conference 2007. Proceedings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cutululis, N; Soerensen, P [eds.

2007-11-15

This fourth Nordic Wind Power Conference was focused on power system integration and electrical systems of wind turbines and wind farms. NWPC presents the newest research results related to technical electrical aspects of wind power, spanning from power system integration to electrical design and control of wind turbines. The first NWPC was held in Trondheim (2000), Norway, the second in Gothenburg (2004), Sweden, and the third in Espoo (2006), Finland. Invited speakers, oral presentation of papers and poster sessions ensured this to be a valuable event for professionals and high-level students wanting to strengthen their knowledge on wind power integration and electrical systems. (au)

Sharing wind power forecasts in electricity markets: A numerical analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Exizidis, Lazaros; Pinson, Pierre; Kazempour, Jalal

2016-01-01

In an electricity pool with significant share of wind power, all generators including conventional and wind power units are generally scheduled in a day-ahead market based on wind power forecasts. Then, a real-time market is cleared given the updated wind power forecast and fixed day......-ahead decisions to adjust power imbalances. This sequential market-clearing process may cope with serious operational challenges such as severe power shortage in real-time due to erroneous wind power forecasts in day-ahead market. To overcome such situations, several solutions can be considered such as adding...... flexible resources to the system. In this paper, we address another potential solution based on information sharing in which market players share their own wind power forecasts with others in day-ahead market. This solution may improve the functioning of sequential market-clearing process through making...

2008 LHC Open Days: Super(-conducting) events and activities

CERN Multimedia

2008-01-01

Superconductivity will be one of the central themes of the programme of events and discovery activities of the forthcoming LHC Open Days on 5 and 6 April. Visitors will be invited to take part in a range of activities, experiments and exchanges all about this amazing aspect of the LHC project. Why superconductivity? Simply because it’s the principle on which the very operation of the LHC is based. At the heart of the LHC magnets lie 7000 kilometres of superconducting cables, each strand containing between 6000 and 9000 filaments of the superconducting alloy niobium-titanium in a copper coating. These cables, cooled to a temperature close to absolute zero, are able to conduct electricity without resistance. 12000 amp currents - an intensity some 30000 times greater than that of a 100 watt light bulb - pass through the cables of the LHC magnets.   Programme:   BLDG 163 (Saturday 5 and Sunday 6 April): See weird and wonderful experiments with your own eyes In the workshop where the 2...

A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiang, Yuewen; Chen, Meisen; You, Shi

2017-01-01

In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase...... in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view...... of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO) is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle...

Index Bioclimatic "Wind-Chill"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teodoreanu Elena

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an important bioclimatic index which shows the influence of wind on the human body thermoregulation. When the air temperature is high, the wind increases thermal comfort. But more important for the body is the wind when the air temperature is low. When the air temperature is lower and wind speed higher, the human body is threatening to freeze faster. Cold wind index is used in Canada, USA, Russia (temperature "equivalent" to the facial skin etc., in the weather forecast every day in the cold season. The index can be used and for bioclimatic regionalization, in the form of skin temperature index.

He II {lambda}4686 IN {eta} CARINAE: COLLAPSE OF THE WIND-WIND COLLISION REGION DURING PERIASTRON PASSAGE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Teodoro, M.; Damineli, A. [Instituto de Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Rua do Matao 1226, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo 05508-900 (Brazil); Arias, J. I. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de La Serena, Av. Cisternas 1200 Norte, La Serena (Chile); De Araujo, F. X.; Borges Fernandes, M.; Pereira, C. B. [Observatorio Nacional, Rua General Jose Cristino 77, Sao Cristovao, Rio de Janeiro 20921-400 (Brazil); Barba, R. H.; Gonzalez, J. F. [Instituto de Ciencias Astronomicas, de la Tierra, y del Espacio (ICATE-CONICET), Avenida Espana Sur 1512, J5402DSP San Juan (Argentina); Corcoran, M. F. [CRESST and X-ray Astrophysics Laboratory, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Fernandez-Lajus, E.; Gamen, R. C.; Solivella, G. R. [Facultad de Ciencias Astronomicas y Geofisicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Paseo del Bosque s/n, La Plata, BA, B1900FWA (Argentina); Fraga, L. [Southern Observatory for Astrophysical Research, Colina El Pino s/n, Casilla 603, La Serena (Chile); Groh, J. H. [Max-Planck-Institute fuer Radioastronomie, Auf dem Huegel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Marshall, J. L. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843-4242 (United States); McGregor, P. J.; Nicholls, D. C.; Parkin, E. R. [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics (RSAA), Mount Stromlo Observatory, Cotter Road, Weston, ACT 2611 (Australia); Morrell, N.; Phillips, M. M., E-mail: mairan@astro.iag.usp.br [Las Campanas Observatory, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, Casilla 601, La Serena (Chile); and others

2012-02-10

The periodic spectroscopic events in {eta} Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision (WWC) boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events, we performed a dense monitoring of {eta} Carinae with five Southern telescopes during the 2009 low-excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II {lambda}4686 emission line (L {approx} 310 L{sub Sun }) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the WWC region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II {lambda}4686 light curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II {lambda}4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the 'surface' of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.

He II λ4686 IN η CARINAE: COLLAPSE OF THE WIND-WIND COLLISION REGION DURING PERIASTRON PASSAGE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teodoro, M.; Damineli, A.; Arias, J. I.; De Araújo, F. X.; Borges Fernandes, M.; Pereira, C. B.; Barbá, R. H.; González, J. F.; Corcoran, M. F.; Fernández-Lajús, E.; Gamen, R. C.; Solivella, G. R.; Fraga, L.; Groh, J. H.; Marshall, J. L.; McGregor, P. J.; Nicholls, D. C.; Parkin, E. R.; Morrell, N.; Phillips, M. M.

2012-01-01

The periodic spectroscopic events in η Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision (WWC) boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events, we performed a dense monitoring of η Carinae with five Southern telescopes during the 2009 low-excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II λ4686 emission line (L ∼ 310 L ☉ ) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the WWC region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II λ4686 light curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II λ4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the 'surface' of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.

Doppler Wind Lidar Measurements and Scalability to Space

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global measurements of wind speed and direction from Doppler wind lidars, if available, would significantly improve forecasting of severe weather events such as...

A ``Cyber Wind Facility'' for HPC Wind Turbine Field Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Brasseur, James; Paterson, Eric; Schmitz, Sven; Campbell, Robert; Vijayakumar, Ganesh; Lavely, Adam; Jayaraman, Balaji; Nandi, Tarak; Jha, Pankaj; Dunbar, Alex; Motta-Mena, Javier; Craven, Brent; Haupt, Sue

2013-03-01

The Penn State ``Cyber Wind Facility'' (CWF) is a high-fidelity multi-scale high performance computing (HPC) environment in which ``cyber field experiments'' are designed and ``cyber data'' collected from wind turbines operating within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) environment. Conceptually the ``facility'' is akin to a high-tech wind tunnel with controlled physical environment, but unlike a wind tunnel it replicates commercial-scale wind turbines operating in the field and forced by true atmospheric turbulence with controlled stability state. The CWF is created from state-of-the-art high-accuracy technology geometry and grid design and numerical methods, and with high-resolution simulation strategies that blend unsteady RANS near the surface with high fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) in separated boundary layer, blade and rotor wake regions, embedded within high-resolution LES of the ABL. CWF experiments complement physical field facility experiments that can capture wider ranges of meteorological events, but with minimal control over the environment and with very small numbers of sensors at low spatial resolution. I shall report on the first CWF experiments aimed at dynamical interactions between ABL turbulence and space-time wind turbine loadings. Supported by DOE and NSF.

Average profiles of the solar wind and outer radiation belt during the extreme flux enhancement of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Kataoka

2008-06-01

Full Text Available We report average profiles of the solar wind and outer radiation belt during the extreme flux enhancement of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit (GEO. It is found that seven of top ten extreme events at GEO during solar cycle 23 are associated with the magnetosphere inflation during the storm recovery phase as caused by the large-scale solar wind structure of very low dynamic pressure (<1.0 nPa during rapid speed decrease from very high (>650 km/s to typical (400–500 km/s in a few days. For the seven events, the solar wind parameters, geomagnetic activity indices, and relativistic electron flux and geomagnetic field at GEO are superposed at the local noon period of GOES satellites to investigate the physical cause. The average profiles support the "double inflation" mechanism that the rarefaction of the solar wind and subsequent magnetosphere inflation are one of the best conditions to produce the extreme flux enhancement at GEO because of the excellent magnetic confinement of relativistic electrons by reducing the drift loss of trapped electrons at dayside magnetopause.

Multiple daytime nucleation events in semi-clean savannah and industrial environments in South Africa: analysis based on observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Hirsikko

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Recent studies have shown very high frequencies of atmospheric new particle formation in different environments in South Africa. Our aim here was to investigate the causes for two or three consecutive daytime nucleation events, followed by subsequent particle growth during the same day. We analysed 108 and 31 such days observed in a polluted industrial and moderately polluted rural environments, respectively, in South Africa. The analysis was based on two years of measurements at each site. After rejecting the days having notable changes in the air mass origin or local wind direction, i.e. two major reasons for observed multiple nucleation events, we were able to investigate other factors causing this phenomenon. Clouds were present during, or in between most of the analysed multiple particle formation events. Therefore, some of these events may have been single events, interrupted somehow by the presence of clouds. From further analysis, we propose that the first nucleation and growth event of the day was often associated with the mixing of a residual air layer rich in SO2 (oxidized to sulphuric acid into the shallow surface-coupled layer. The second nucleation and growth event of the day usually started before midday and was sometimes associated with renewed SO2 emissions from industrial origin. However, it was also evident that vapours other than sulphuric acid were required for the particle growth during both events. This was especially the case when two simultaneously growing particle modes were observed. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the relative contributions of estimated H2SO4 and other vapours on the first and second nucleation and growth events of the day varied from day to day, depending on anthropogenic and natural emissions, as well as atmospheric conditions.

An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS

Science.gov (United States)

Lupo, Kevin

2012-01-01

Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.

Boundary-Layer Characteristics of Persistent Regional Haze Events and Heavy Haze Days in Eastern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Huaqing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzed the surface conditions and boundary-layer climate of regional haze events and heavy haze in southern Jiangsu Province in China. There are 5 types with the surface conditions which are equalized pressure (EQP, the advancing edge of a cold front (ACF, the base of high pressure (BOH, the backside of high pressure (BAH, the inverted trough of low pressure (INT, and saddle pressure (SAP with the haze days. At that time, 4 types are divided with the regional haze events and each of which has a different boundary-layer structure. During heavy haze, the surface mainly experiences EQP, ACF, BOH, BAH, and INT which also have different boundary-layer structures.

Reliability of offshore wind power production under extreme wind conditions. Deliverable D 9.5. Work Package 9: Electrical grid

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Zeni, Lorenzo

years, with each year simulated with five random seeds, leading to a total of 25 annual wind power time series for six large offshore wind farms, summing up to a little over 330 wind turbines. Two storm control strategies were used. The analysis involved several aspects inspired from reliability studies....... The aspects investigated are storm events occurrences and durations, storm control strategy impact on the capacity factor (lost production), the loss of production (power produced from wind drops below a certain threshold due to high wind speeds and storm controller) and finally, the wind power production......Reliability of offshore wind production under extreme wind conditions was investigated in this report. The wind power variability from existing and future large offshore wind farms in Western Denmark were simulated using the Correlated Wind model developed at Risø. The analysis was done for five...

Observation of wind field over heterogeneous terrain by the French-German airborne Doppler lidar WIND

Science.gov (United States)

Dabas, A.; Werner, C.; Delville, P.; Reitebuch, O.; Drobinski, P.; Cousin, F.

2003-04-01

In summer 2001, the French-German airborne Doppler lidar WIND participated to field campaign ESCOMPTE. ESCOMPTE was carried out in the region of Marseille along the Mediterranean coast of France. It was dedicated to the observation of heavy pollution events in this industrialized, densely populated region of nearly 4 million inhabitants. The aim was to gather a data base as comprehensive as possible on several pollution events and use them to check the ability of several regional forecast models to predict such events. The specific mission devoted to WIND was the characterization at mesoscale of the wind field and the topography of the planetary boundary layer. Both are complex around Marseille due the heterogeneity of the surface with a transition sea/land to the south, the fore-Alps to the North, the Rhône valley to the North-West etc... Seven, 3-hr flights were carried out and gave excellent results. In 2002, first comparisons were made with mesoscale models. They will be shown during the presentation. They are good examples of the usefulness of airborne Doppler lidar for validating and improving atmospheric model simulations.

News Competition: Physics Olympiad hits Thailand Report: Institute carries out survey into maths in physics at university Event: A day for everyone teaching physics Conference: Welsh conference celebrates birthday Schools: Researchers in Residence scheme set to close Teachers: A day for new physics teachers Social: Network combines fun and physics Forthcoming events

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-01

Competition: Physics Olympiad hits Thailand Report: Institute carries out survey into maths in physics at university Event: A day for everyone teaching physics Conference: Welsh conference celebrates birthday Schools: Researchers in Residence scheme set to close Teachers: A day for new physics teachers Social: Network combines fun and physics Forthcoming events

RTE: the integration of wind energy in the power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glachant, Magali; Neau, Emmanuel

2011-03-01

The total installed capacity of wind power in France grew from a few hundred MW at the beginning of 2005 to 5500 MW at the end of 2010. This fast growth is set to continue, and the French Government's decision of 15 December 2009 on the country's long-term investment programs in power generation requires France to have at least 25 GW of installed wind capacity (including 6 GW offshore) by 2020. But the French specificities are that wind farms are largely spread over the territory, and 95 % of them have an output power below 12 MW which means they are mainly connected to the distribution network. As a consequence, this new intermittent and decentralized production is not 'naturally' observable by RTE, whereas it has nevertheless impacts on the operation of the transmission system for which RTE is responsible. The natural variability of wind power and the difficulty of its predictability require indeed a change in the traditional way of ensuring balancing between production and demand, of managing day-ahead margins and of controlling the electrical flows. Furthermore RTE operators have to be informed quickly and reliably of the real time output power of wind farms and of its evolvement some hours or days ahead to ensure the reliability of the French electrical power system. In this context, new tools were necessary to RTE to acquire as soon as possible data concerning wind power. In two years long, RTE set up an observatory of wind production called the 'IPES system'. 'IPES' enables to get information about technical characteristics of the whole wind farms in France and to observe the wind generation by two ways: in real time with tele-metered data and in the short term with a forecast model integrated into the system. In addition, RTE currently carries out studies about the behavior and the forecasting of wind production integrated into the grids, as internal activities (about forecast methods), and in different projects (such as European projects: Safewind for

Enigmatic Solar Wind Disappearance Events – Do We Understand ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Solar wind disappearance—polar field reversals—transient ... unlike its high speed counterpart that emanates only from large open field regions ..... Sheeley, N. R. Jr., Swanson, E. T., Wang, Y.-M. 1991, Out of the ecliptic tests of the inverse.

Hurricane Katrina Wind Investigation Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Desjarlais, A. O.

2007-08-15

This investigation of roof damage caused by Hurricane Katrina is a joint effort of the Roofing Industry Committee on Weather Issues, Inc. (RICOWI) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory/U.S. Department of Energy (ORNL/DOE). The Wind Investigation Program (WIP) was initiated in 1996. Hurricane damage that met the criteria of a major windstorm event did not materialize until Hurricanes Charley and Ivan occurred in August 2004. Hurricane Katrina presented a third opportunity for a wind damage investigation in August 29, 2005. The major objectives of the WIP are as follows: (1) to investigate the field performance of roofing assemblies after major wind events; (2) to factually describe roofing assembly performance and modes of failure; and (3) to formally report results of the investigations and damage modes for substantial wind speeds The goal of the WIP is to perform unbiased, detailed investigations by credible personnel from the roofing industry, the insurance industry, and academia. Data from these investigations will, it is hoped, lead to overall improvement in roofing products, systems, roofing application, and durability and a reduction in losses, which may lead to lower overall costs to the public. This report documents the results of an extensive and well-planned investigative effort. The following program changes were implemented as a result of the lessons learned during the Hurricane Charley and Ivan investigations: (1) A logistics team was deployed to damage areas immediately following landfall; (2) Aerial surveillance--imperative to target wind damage areas--was conducted; (3) Investigation teams were in place within 8 days; (4) Teams collected more detailed data; and (5) Teams took improved photographs and completed more detailed photo logs. Participating associations reviewed the results and lessons learned from the previous investigations and many have taken the following actions: (1) Moved forward with recommendations for new installation procedures

Assessing the effect of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) on length-of-day (LOD) variations under climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmann, E.; Hansen, F.; Ulbrich, U.; Nevir, P.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2009-04-01

While most studies on model-projected future climate warming discuss climatological quantities, this study investigates the response of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to climate warming for the 21th century and discusses its possible effects on future length-of-day variations. Following the derivation of the dynamic relation between atmosphere and solid earth by Barnes et al. (Proc. Roy. Soc., 1985) this study relates the axial atmospheric excitation function X3 to changes in length-of-day that are proportional to variations in zonal winds. On interannual time scales changes in the relative AAM (ERA40 reanalyses) are well correlated with observed length-of-day (LOD, IERS EOP CO4) variability (r=0.75). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Correspondingly, changes in observed LOD relate to ENSO due to observed strong wind anomalies. This study investigates the varying effect of AAM anomalies on observed LOD by relating AAM to variations to ENSO teleconnections (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) and the Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation for the 20th and 21st century. The differently strong effect of strong El Niño events (explained variance 71%-98%) on present time (1962-2000) observed LOD-AAM relation can be associated to variations in location and strength of jet streams in the upper troposphere. Correspondingly, the relation between AAM and SSTs in the NIÑO 3.4 region also varies between explained variances of 15% to 73%. Recent coupled ocean-atmosphere projections on future climate warming suggest changes in frequency and amplitude of ENSO events. Since changes in the relative AAM indicate shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change, AAM - ENSO relations are assessed in coupled atmosphere-ocean (ECHAM5-OM1) climate warming projections (A1B) for the 21st century. A strong rise (+31%) in

Quality Control of Wind Data from 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler

Science.gov (United States)

Vacek, Austin

2016-01-01

Upper-level wind profiles obtained from a 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) instrument at Kennedy Space Center are incorporated in space launch vehicle design and day-of-launch operations to assess wind effects on the vehicle during ascent. Automated and manual quality control (QC) techniques are implemented to remove spurious data in the upper-level wind profiles caused from atmospheric and non-atmospheric artifacts over the 2010-2012 period of record (POR). By adding the new quality controlled profiles with older profiles from 1997-2009, a robust database will be constructed of upper-level wind characteristics. Statistical analysis will determine the maximum, minimum, and 95th percentile of the wind components from the DRWP profiles over recent POR and compare against the older database. Additionally, this study identifies specific QC flags triggered during the QC process to understand how much data is retained and removed from the profiles.

Variation of the solar wind velocity following solar flares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Y.; Lee, Y.

1975-01-01

By use of the superposed epoch method, changes in the solar wind velocity following solar flares have been investigated by using the solar wind velocity data obtained by Pioneer 6 and 7 and Vela 3, 4, and 5 satellites. A significant increase of the solar wind velocity has been found on the second day following importance 3 solar flares and on the third day following importance 2 solar flares. No significant increase of the solar wind velocity has been found for limb flares. (auth)

Appendix I3-1 to Wind HUI Initiative 1: AWST-WindNET-Phase 1 Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Zack

2012-07-15

This report is an appendix to the Hawaii WindHUI efforts to develop and operationalize short-term wind forecasting and wind ramp event forecasting capabilities. The report summarizes the WindNET Phase 1 efforts on the Big Island of Hawaii and includes descriptions of modeling methodologies, use of field validation data, results and recommendations. The objective of the WindNET project was to investigate the improvement that could be obtained in short-term wind power forecasting for wind generation facilities operating on the island grids operated by Hawaiian Electric Companies through the use of atmospheric sensors deployed at targeted locations. WindNET is envisioned as a multiphase project that will address the short-term wind forecasting issues of all of the wind generation facilities on the all of the Hawaiian Electric Companies' island grid systems. The first phase of the WindNET effort (referred to as WindNET-1) was focused on the wind generation facilities on the Big Island of Hawaii. With complex terrain and marine environment, emphasis was on improving the 0 to 6 hour forecasts of wind power ramps and periods of wind variability, with a particular interest in the intra-hour (0-1 hour) look-ahead period. The WindNET project was built upon a foundation that was constructed with the results from a previously completed observation targeting study for the Big Island that was conducted as part of a project supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and interactions with the western utilities. The observational targeting study provided guidance on which variables to measure and at what locations to get the most improvement in forecast performance at a target forecast site. The recommendations of the observation targeting study were based on the application two techniques: (1) an objective method called ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) (Ancell and Hakim, 2007; Torn and Hakim, 2008; Zack et al, 2010); and (2) a subjective method based on a

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Joe H., III

2010-01-01

The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

A Cyber-Based Data-Enabled Virtual Organization for Wind Load Effects on Civil Infrastructures: VORTEX-Winds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahsan Kareem

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Despite many advances in the area of wind effects on structures in recent decades, research has been traditionally conducted within limited resources scattered geographically. With the trend toward increasingly complex designs of civil infrastructure combined with the escalating potential for losses by extreme wind events, a new culture of research needs to be established based on innovative and collaborative solutions for better management of the impact of extreme wind events. To address this change, this paper presents a new paradigm of a multiscale cyber-based laboratory framework for the analysis/design, modeling, and simulation of wind load effects based on an ongoing collaborative cyberinfrastructure-based platform, Virtual Organization for Reducing the Toll of EXtreme Winds (VORTEX-Winds, https://vortex-winds.org, and discusses its current status since its inception in 2007 and ongoing developments. This collaborative framework as it evolves would enable a paradigm shift by offering advanced cyber-enabled modules (e-modules for accelerating advances in research and education to achieve improved understanding and better modeling of wind effects on structures. Accordingly, it will enhance wind community’s analysis and design capabilities to address next-generation challenges posed by wind. Through empowering those without computational or experimental resources, the e-modules will encompass a large set of subject areas and topics categorized as Database-enabled design, Full-scale/Field site data repository, Statistical/Stochastic toolboxes, Tele-experimentation, Uncertainty modeling, Damage assessment, and Computational platforms. This prototype will allow access to the individual e-module, while it is envisaged that next level of development in VORTEX-Winds will have the capability for an automated and integrated analysis/design through a nexus of e-modules. A highlight of the e-modules currently completed or in development is presented

Analysis of Anholt offshore wind farm SCADA measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Volker, Patrick; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

SCADA measurements from the Danish Anholt offshore wind farm (ANH) for a period of 2½ years have been qualified. ANH covers 12 km × 22 km and is located between Djursland and the island Anholt in Kattegat, Denmark. This qualification encompasses identification of curtailment and idling periods......, start/stop events and a power curve control for each wind turbine in the wind farm. Data also include wind speed measurements from a nearby WindCube lidar and simulations from the WRF model for the same period as the SCADA. An equivalent wind speed (wsi) is derived from the combined power and pitch...

Appendix I1-2 to Wind HUI Initiative 1: Field Campaign Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Zack; Deborah Hanley; Dora Nakafuji

2012-07-15

This report is an appendix to the Hawaii WindHUI efforts to dev elop and operationalize short-term wind forecasting and wind ramp event forecasting capabilities. The report summarizes the WindNET field campaign deployment experiences and challenges. As part of the WindNET project on the Big Island of Hawaii, AWS Truepower (AWST) conducted a field campaign to assess the viability of deploying a network of monitoring systems to aid in local wind energy forecasting. The data provided at these monitoring locations, which were strategically placed around the Big Island of Hawaii based upon results from the Oahu Wind Integration and Transmission Study (OWITS) observational targeting study (Figure 1), provided predictive indicators for improving wind forecasts and developing responsive strategies for managing real-time, wind-related system events. The goal of the field campaign was to make measurements from a network of remote monitoring devices to improve 1- to 3-hour look ahead forecasts for wind facilities.

Representation of spatial and temporal variability of daily wind speed and of intense wind events over the Mediterranean Sea using dynamical downscaling: impact of the regional climate model configuration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Herrmann

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric datasets coming from long term reanalyzes of low spatial resolution are used for different purposes. Wind over the sea is, for example, a major ingredient of oceanic simulations. However, the shortcomings of those datasets prevent them from being used without an adequate corrective preliminary treatment. Using a regional climate model (RCM to perform a dynamical downscaling of those large scale reanalyzes is one of the methods used in order to produce fields that realistically reproduce atmospheric chronology and where those shortcomings are corrected. Here we assess the influence of the configuration of the RCM used in this framework on the representation of wind speed spatial and temporal variability and intense wind events on a daily timescale. Our RCM is ALADIN-Climate, the reanalysis is ERA-40, and the studied area is the Mediterranean Sea.

First, the dynamical downscaling significantly reduces the underestimation of daily wind speed, in average by 9 % over the whole Mediterranean. This underestimation has been corrected both globally and locally, and for the whole wind speed spectrum. The correction is the strongest for periods and regions of strong winds. The representation of spatial variability has also been significantly improved. On the other hand, the temporal correlation between the downscaled field and the observations decreases all the more that one moves eastwards, i.e. further from the atmospheric flux entry. Nonetheless, it remains ~0.7, the downscaled dataset reproduces therefore satisfactorily the real chronology.

Second, the influence of the choice of the RCM configuration has an influence one order of magnitude smaller than the improvement induced by the initial downscaling. The use of spectral nudging or of a smaller domain helps to improve the realism of the temporal chronology. Increasing the resolution very locally (both spatially and temporally improves the representation of spatial

The AFFORD clinical decision aid to identify emergency department patients with atrial fibrillation at low risk for 30-day adverse events.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Tyler W; Storrow, Alan B; Jenkins, Cathy A; Abraham, Robert L; Liu, Dandan; Miller, Karen F; Moser, Kelly M; Russ, Stephan; Roden, Dan M; Harrell, Frank E; Darbar, Dawood

2015-03-15

There is wide variation in the management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in the emergency department (ED). We aimed to derive and internally validate the first prospective, ED-based clinical decision aid to identify patients with AF at low risk for 30-day adverse events. We performed a prospective cohort study at a university-affiliated tertiary-care ED. Patients were enrolled from June 9, 2010, to February 28, 2013, and followed for 30 days. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients in ED presenting with symptomatic AF. Candidate predictors were based on ED data available in the first 2 hours. The decision aid was derived using model approximation (preconditioning) followed by strong bootstrap internal validation. We used an ordinal outcome hierarchy defined as the incidence of the most severe adverse event within 30 days of the ED evaluation. Of 497 patients enrolled, stroke and AF-related death occurred in 13 (3%) and 4 (aid included the following: age, triage vitals (systolic blood pressure, temperature, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, supplemental oxygen requirement), medical history (heart failure, home sotalol use, previous percutaneous coronary intervention, electrical cardioversion, cardiac ablation, frequency of AF symptoms), and ED data (2 hours heart rate, chest radiograph results, hemoglobin, creatinine, and brain natriuretic peptide). The decision aid's c-statistic in predicting any 30-day adverse event was 0.7 (95% confidence interval 0.65, 0.76). In conclusion, in patients with AF in the ED, Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter Outcome Risk Determination provides the first evidence-based decision aid for identifying patients who are at low risk for 30-day adverse events and candidates for safe discharge. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variability in large-scale wind power generation: Variability in large-scale wind power generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kiviluoma, Juha [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Holttinen, Hannele [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Weir, David [Energy Department, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo Norway; Scharff, Richard [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Söder, Lennart [Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Menemenlis, Nickie [Institut de recherche Hydro-Québec, Montreal Canada; Cutululis, Nicolaos A. [DTU, Wind Energy, Roskilde Denmark; Danti Lopez, Irene [Electricity Research Centre, University College Dublin, Dublin Ireland; Lannoye, Eamonn [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto California USA; Estanqueiro, Ana [LNEG, Laboratorio Nacional de Energia e Geologia, UESEO, Lisbon Spain; Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio [Renewable Energy Research Institute and DIEEAC/EDII-AB, Castilla-La Mancha University, Albacete Spain; Zhang, Qin [State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing China; Bai, Jianhua [State Grid Energy Research Institute Beijing, Beijing China; Wan, Yih-Huei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA; Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA

2015-10-25

The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net load events. The comparison shows regions with low variability (Sweden, Spain and Germany), medium variability (Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Denmark) and regions with higher variability (Quebec, Bonneville Power Administration and Electric Reliability Council of Texas in North America; Gansu, Jilin and Liaoning in China; and Norway and offshore wind power in Denmark). For regions with low variability, the maximum 1 h wind ramps are below 10% of nominal capacity, and for regions with high variability, they may be close to 30%. Wind power variability is mainly explained by the extent of geographical spread, but also higher capacity factor causes higher variability. It was also shown how wind power ramps are autocorrelated and dependent on the operating output level. When wind power was concentrated in smaller area, there were outliers with high changes in wind output, which were not present in large areas with well-dispersed wind power.

Increasing a Community's Knowledge about Drought, Watershed Ecosystems, and Water Quality Through Educational Activities Added to Coastal Cleanup Day Events

Science.gov (United States)

Brinker, R.; Allen, L.; Cole, P.; Rho, C.

2016-12-01

International Coastal Cleanup Day, held each September, is an effective campaign to bring volunteers together to clean trash from beaches and waterways and document results. Over 500,000 participants cleared over 9 million pounds of trash in 2015. To build on the enthusiasm for this event, the city of Livermore, California's Water Resource Department, the Livermore Valley Joint Unified School District, Livermore Area Recreation and Parks Department created a water education program to embed within the city's Coastal Cleanup Day events. Goals of the education program are to increase awareness of the local watershed and its geographic reach, impacts of climate change and drought on local water supplies, pollution sources and impacts of local pollution on the ocean, positive impacts of a recent plastic bag ban, water quality assessment, and action steps citizens can take to support a healthy watershed. Volunteers collect and test water samples (when water is in the creek) using modified GLOBE and World Water Monitoring Day protocols. Test results are uploaded to the World Water Monitoring Day site and documented on the program web site. Volunteers report that they did not know about watersheds, impacts of local pollution, and water quality components before the education program. Volunteers are encouraged to adopt a creek spot for one year, and continue to collect and document trash. High school and middle school science classes added the water quality testing into curriculum, and regularly visit creek sites to clean the spots and monitor habitats. Each year for the past five years, about 300 volunteers have worked on creek clean-up events, 20 have adopted creek sites, and collected over 4,000 gallons of trash annually. As a result of these efforts, sites have been downgraded from a trash hot spot of concern. Strategies will be shared to expand an established (or start a new) Coastal Cleanup Day event into a successful watershed and climate awareness citizen science

Paleo-event data standards for dendrochronology

Science.gov (United States)

Elaine Kennedy Sutherland; P. Brewer; W. Gross

2017-01-01

Extreme environmental events, such as storm winds, landslides, insect infestations, and wildfire, cause loss of life, resources, and human infrastructure. Disaster riskreduction analysis can be improved with information about past frequency, intensity, and spatial patterns of extreme events. Tree-ring analyses can provide such information: tree rings reflect events as...

A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuewen Jiang

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (QPSO. Finally, the impacts of associated parameters on the separate trading and unified trading model are analyzed to verify the superiority of the proposed model and algorithm.

Fabulous Weather Day

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

2007-01-01

Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

Operational warnings issued by the SMC in the 8th March snow event in Catalonia

Science.gov (United States)

Vilaclara, E.; Segalà, S.; Andrés, A.; Aran, M.

2010-09-01

The snowfall event of 8th March 2010 was one of the most important of the last years in Catalonia, with high societal impact in the communication and in the power distribution. Since 2002, after an agreement between Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) and Civil Protection authority, the SMC is the agency responsible to carry out meteorological warnings in Catalonia. These warnings are issued depending on the thresholds which are expected to be exceeded (three different probability degrees are defined), and are characterized by a high spatial and temporal resolution. In the snow event of 8th March, forecasting team of the SMC did the first meteorological warning three days before, on 5th March. During the two following days broadcasted four different warnings, taking into account the high probability of exceeding 2 cm of snow above 200 meters, 15 above 400 m and 30 above 800 m. Furthermore, the SMC disseminated also two special press releases with the aim to extend the forecast to the public. In the afternoon of Sunday, 7th March, the snow precipitation started in some areas of Catalonia. From this moment, the SMC followed the surveillance of situation with the remote sensing tools and the Meteorological Observers Network data. This network is formed by a hundred of spotters with mobile phones able to transmit observations in real time to our web site. This surveillance and the conceptual model of snow events in Catalonia allowed the forecasters to improve the estimation of the snow level forecasted by mesoscale meteorological models. In this event, the snow level obtained from these models was higher than the real one. In spite of the accuracy of the forecast, the impact was very important in Catalonia. On one hand, it was due to the exceptionality of the event, with 3 cm of snow in Barcelona in the afternoon of a working day. On the other hand, the large amount of wet snow precipitation (until 100 mm), and the wind, contributed to an important snow

Wind/solar resource in Texas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nelson, V.; Starcher, K.; Gaines, H. [West Texas A& M Univ., Canyon, TX (United States)

1997-12-31

Data are being collected at 17 sites to delineate a baseline for the wind and solar resource across Texas. Wind data are being collected at 10, 25, and 40 m (in some cases at 50 m) to determine wind shear and power at hub heights of large turbines. Many of the sites are located in areas of predicted terrain enhancement. The typical day in a month for power and wind turbine output was calculated for selected sites and combination of sites; distributed systems. Major result to date is that there is the possibility of load matching in South Texas during the summer months, even though the average values by month indicate a low wind potential.

SeaWinds - Oceans, Land, Polar Regions

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite makes global radar measurements -- day and night, in clear sky and through clouds. The radar data over the oceans provide scientists and weather forecasters with information on surface wind speed and direction. Scientists also use the radar measurements directly to learn about changes in vegetation and ice extent over land and polar regions.This false-color image is based entirely on SeaWinds measurements obtained over oceans, land, and polar regions. Over the ocean, colors indicate wind speed with orange as the fastest wind speeds and blue as the slowest. White streamlines indicate the wind direction. The ocean winds in this image were measured by SeaWinds on September 20, 1999. The large storm in the Atlantic off the coast of Florida is Hurricane Gert. Tropical storm Harvey is evident as a high wind region in the Gulf of Mexico, while farther west in the Pacific is tropical storm Hilary. An extensive storm is also present in the South Atlantic Ocean near Antarctica.The land image was made from four days of SeaWinds data with the aid of a resolution enhancement algorithm developed by Dr. David Long at Brigham Young University. The lightest green areas correspond to the highest radar backscatter. Note the bright Amazon and Congo rainforests compared to the dark Sahara desert. The Amazon River is visible as a dark line running horizontally though the bright South American rain forest. Cities appear as bright spots on the images, especially in the U.S. and Europe.The image of Greenland and the north polar ice cap was generated from data acquired by SeaWinds on a single day. In the polar region portion of the image, white corresponds to the largest radar return, while purple is the lowest. The variations in color in Greenland and the polar ice cap reveal information about the ice and snow conditions present.NASA's Earth Science Enterprise is a long-term research and technology program designed to examine Earth

Mass-gathering Medicine: Risks and Patient Presentations at a 2-Day Electronic Dance Music Event.

Science.gov (United States)

Lund, Adam; Turris, Sheila A

2015-06-01

Music festivals, including electronic dance music events (EDMEs), increasingly are common in Canada and internationally. Part of a US $4.5 billion industry annually, the target audience is youth and young adults aged 15-25 years. Little is known about the impact of these events on local emergency departments (EDs). Drawing on prospective data over a 2-day EDME, the authors of this study employed mixed methods to describe the case mix and prospectively compared patient presentation rate (PPR) and ambulance transfer rate (ATR) between a first aid (FA) only and a higher level of care (HLC) model. There were 20,301 ticketed attendees. Seventy patient encounters were recorded over two days. The average age was 19.1 years. Roughly 69% were female (n=48/70). Forty-six percent of those seen in the main medical area were under the age of 19 years (n=32/70). The average length of stay in the main medical area was 70.8 minutes. The overall PPR was 4.09 per 1,000 attendees. The ATR with FA only would have been 1.98; ATR with HLC model was 0.52. The presence of an on-site HLC team had a significant positive effect on avoiding ambulance transfers. Twenty-nine ambulance transfers and ED visits were avoided by the presence of an on-site HLC medical team. Reduction of impact to the public health care system was substantial. Electronic dance music events have predictable risks and patient presentations, and appropriate on-site health care resources may reduce significantly the impact on the prehospital and emergency health resources in the host community.

Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

2014-01-01

The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic...... regimes. Overall, it becomes clear that the first indications of an extreme wind event might come from the ECMWF deterministic and/or probabilistic components capturing very intense weather systems (possible windstorms) in the medium term. For early warnings, all available EPS Extreme Forecast Index (EFI......) formulations were used, by linking daily maximum wind speeds to EFI values for different forecast horizons. From all possible EFI schemes deployed for issuing early warnings, the highest skill was found for the Gust Factor formulation (EFI-10FGI). Using EFI-10FGI, the corresponding 99% threshold could provide...

Multiple Lightning Discharges in Wind Turbines Associated with Nearby Cloud-to-Ground Lightning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Candela Garolera, Anna; Cummins, Kenneth L.; Madsen, Søren Find

2015-01-01

This paper presents the analysis of five events where simultaneous lightning currents were registered in different wind turbines of a wind farm with lightning monitoring equipment installed. Measurements from current monitoring devices installed at the wind turbines and observations from auto......-triggering video cameras were correlated with data from the U.S. National Lighting Detection Network. In all five events, the correlation showed that a cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning stroke with high peak current struck the ground within 10 km of the affected turbines at the time of the currents in the wind...... by the nearby CG strokes, involving mechanisms that vary depending on the polarity of the associated CG stroke. The analysis also suggests that the event of upward lightning from wind turbines triggered by nearby lightning activity occurs very often and therefore it should be considered carefully...

Stochastic model for joint wave and wind loads on offshore structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

2002-01-01

_s,T_z)$ from the North Sea a well fitting joint distribution of $(H_s,T_z)$ is obtained as a so-called Nataf model. Since the wave field is wind driven, there is a correlation between the time averaged wind velocity pressure $Q$ and the characteristic wave height in the stationary situation. Using the Poisson...... process model to concentrate on those load events that are of importance for the evaluation of the safety of the structure, that is, events with $Q$ larger than some threshold $q_0$, available information about the wind velocity pressure distributionin high wind situations can be used to formulate a Nataf...

Ergosphere-driven winds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Punsly, B.; Coroniti, F.V.

1990-01-01

This paper is a discussion of a physical mechanism that allows large-scale magnetic fields to torque rapidly rotating black holes in an astrophysical context. The physics which is involved is that plasma in the ergosphere must rotate. Thus, if ergospheric plasma gets frozen onto large-scale magnetic field lines, then it can drive a magnetic wind to infinity, as is conjectured to occur in field-aligned pulsars. Included in this paper is a discussion of ingoing magnetic winds that accrete either toward the event horizon or to the equatorial plane in the ergosphere. 31 refs

Tracking transient events through geosynchronous orbit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korotova, G.I.; Sibeck, D.G.; Moretto, T.

1999-01-01

Impulsive events in high-latitude dayside ground magnetograms provide evidence for one or more modes of unsteady solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. We use geosynchronous magnetic field and energetic electron observations to demonstrate that the events correspond to abrupt global variations in ...

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics, St. Paul, MN (United States)

2014-04-30

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

Side event of the coordination office during the EWEA 2011 conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lapierre, Anne; Toxe, Laurence; Cassin, Fabrice; Doisne, Fabien

2011-01-01

At the occasion of the 2011 edition of the Europe Wind energy event (EWEA), the French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a conference entitled 'Fresh wind in the French regulatory framework'. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, participants exchanged views on the new fiscal and legal framework for the wind industry in France and its immediate and future impacts on the development of this industry. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Wind energy sector: the regulatory framework after 'Grenelle II' Law - Focus on the reform of business tax (Anne Lapierre, Laurence Toxe); 2 - The French planning exercise - Regional Wind Plan (SRe): Perspectives and Reality (Fabrice Cassin); 3 - Regional wind plan approach - Picardie: case study of the drawing up of a Regional Wind Plan (Fabien Doisne)

Wind offering in energy and reserve markets

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, T.; Pinson, P.; Morais, H.

2016-09-01

The increasing penetration of wind generation in power systems to fulfil the ambitious European targets will make wind power producers to play an even more important role in the future power system. Wind power producers are being incentivized to participate in reserve markets to increase their revenue, since currently wind turbine/farm technologies allow them to provide ancillary services. Thus, wind power producers are to develop offering strategies for participation in both energy and reserve markets, accounting for market rules, while ensuring optimal revenue. We consider a proportional offering strategy to optimally decide upon participation in both markets by maximizing expected revenue from day-ahead decisions while accounting for estimated regulation costs for failing to provide the services. An evaluation of considering the same proportional splitting of energy and reserve in both day- ahead and balancing market is performed. A set of numerical examples illustrate the behavior of such strategy. An important conclusion is that the optimal split of the available wind power between energy and reserve strongly depends upon prices and penalties on both market trading floors.

Wind power impacts and electricity storage - a time scale perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hedegaard, Karsten; Meibom, Peter

2012-01-01

Integrating large amounts of wind power in energy systems poses balancing challenges due to the variable and only partly predictable nature of wind. The challenges cover different time scales from intra-hour, intra-day/day-ahead to several days and seasonal level. Along with flexible electricity...... demand options, various electricity storage technologies are being discussed as candidates for contributing to large-scale wind power integration and these also differ in terms of the time scales at which they can operate. In this paper, using the case of Western Denmark in 2025 with an expected 57% wind...... power penetration, wind power impacts on different time scales are analysed. Results show consecutive negative and high net load period lengths indicating a significant potential for flexibility measures capable of charging/activating demand and discharging/inactivating demand in periods of 1 h to one...

Observations of Lake-Breeze Events During the Toronto 2015 Pan-American Games

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, Zen; Dehghan, Armin; Joe, Paul; Sills, David

2018-01-01

Enhanced meteorological observations were made during the 2015 Pan and Parapan American Games in Toronto in order to measure the vertical and horizontal structure of lake-breeze events. Two scanning Doppler lidars (one fixed and one mobile), a C-band radar, and a network including 53 surface meteorological stations (mesonet) provided pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind speed and direction measurements over Lake Ontario and urban areas. These observations captured the full evolution (prior, during, and after) of 27 lake-breeze events (73% of observation days) in order to characterize the convective and dynamic processes driving lake breezes at the local scale and mesoscale. The dominant signal of a passing lake-breeze front (LBF) was an increase in dew-point temperature of 2.3 ± 0.3°C, coinciding with a 180° shift in wind direction and a decrease in air temperature of 2.1 ± 0.2°C. Doppler lidar observations over the lake detected lake breezes 1 hour (on average) before detection by radar and mesonet. On days with the synoptic flow in the offshore direction, the lidars observed wedge-shaped LBFs with shallow depths, which inhibited the radar's ability to detect the lake breeze. The LBF's ground speed and inland penetration distance were found to be well-correlated (r = 0.78), with larger inland penetration distances occurring on days with non-opposing (non-offshore) synoptic flow. The observed enhanced vertical motion ({>} 1 m s^{-1}) at the LBF, observed by the lidar on 54% of lake-breeze days, was greater (at times {>} 2.5 m s^{-1}) than that observed in previous studies and longer-lasting over the lake than over land. The weaker and less pronounced lake-breeze structure over land is illustrated in two case studies highlighting the lifetime of the lake-breeze circulation and the impact of propagation distance on lake-breeze intensity.

Sharing wind power forecasts in electricity markets: A numerical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Exizidis, Lazaros; Kazempour, S. Jalal; Pinson, Pierre; Greve, Zacharie de; Vallée, François

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Information sharing among different agents can be beneficial for electricity markets. • System cost decreases by sharing wind power forecasts between different agents. • Market power of wind producer may increase by sharing forecasts with market operator. • Extensive out-of-sample analysis is employed to draw reliable conclusions. - Abstract: In an electricity pool with significant share of wind power, all generators including conventional and wind power units are generally scheduled in a day-ahead market based on wind power forecasts. Then, a real-time market is cleared given the updated wind power forecast and fixed day-ahead decisions to adjust power imbalances. This sequential market-clearing process may cope with serious operational challenges such as severe power shortage in real-time due to erroneous wind power forecasts in day-ahead market. To overcome such situations, several solutions can be considered such as adding flexible resources to the system. In this paper, we address another potential solution based on information sharing in which market players share their own wind power forecasts with others in day-ahead market. This solution may improve the functioning of sequential market-clearing process through making more informed day-ahead schedules, which reduces the need for balancing resources in real-time operation. This paper numerically evaluates the potential value of sharing forecasts for the whole system in terms of system cost reduction. Besides, its impact on each market player’s profit is analyzed. The framework of this study is based on a stochastic two-stage market setup and complementarity modeling, which allows us to gain further insights into information sharing impacts.

Wind tipping point

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wood, E.

2006-01-01

In this article the author looks at how in five years wind energy has rapidly evolved into a mainstream industry. The United States has begun to look at wind differently - from a macroeconomic perspective.'This country is going to become increasingly committed to renewable energy, and it's not about altruism', said Alan Waxman, managing director of Goldman Sachs and Co., a financial giant that has invested $1 billion in the resource. Wind is seen not just as an environmentally benign alternative, but also as a means to solve some large problems plaguing the energy business and ultimately the United States as a whole. The last year brought record-breaking electricity rate increases, in some cases doubling consumer costs, and escalating the flight of large enterprises out of high-cost energy regions - or out of business altogether. The rate hikes were caused by hurricanes that hit the southern states and disrupted natural gas and oil operations. Adding wind power to the grid is increasingly seen as a way to limit the price shock caused by such events. Wind power reduces reliance on gas and oil-fired generation and, in particular, creates a hedge against spikes in natural gas, a fuel that increasingly sets the marginal price. Large energy users, too, are becoming aware of wind's hedging benefits. The author looks at the cost issues and how the future of wind energy in the country can be sustained as a reliable alternative fuel

Toward Robust and Efficient Climate Downscaling for Wind Energy

Science.gov (United States)

Vanvyve, E.; Rife, D.; Pinto, J. O.; Monaghan, A. J.; Davis, C. A.

2011-12-01

This presentation describes a more accurate and economical (less time, money and effort) wind resource assessment technique for the renewable energy industry, that incorporates innovative statistical techniques and new global mesoscale reanalyzes. The technique judiciously selects a collection of "case days" that accurately represent the full range of wind conditions observed at a given site over a 10-year period, in order to estimate the long-term energy yield. We will demonstrate that this new technique provides a very accurate and statistically reliable estimate of the 10-year record of the wind resource by intelligently choosing a sample of ±120 case days. This means that the expense of downscaling to quantify the wind resource at a prospective wind farm can be cut by two thirds from the current industry practice of downscaling a randomly chosen 365-day sample to represent winds over a "typical" year. This new estimate of the long-term energy yield at a prospective wind farm also has far less statistical uncertainty than the current industry standard approach. This key finding has the potential to reduce significantly market barriers to both onshore and offshore wind farm development, since insurers and financiers charge prohibitive premiums on investments that are deemed to be high risk. Lower uncertainty directly translates to lower perceived risk, and therefore far more attractive financing terms could be offered to wind farm developers who employ this new technique.

On the Predictability of Hub Height Winds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Draxl, Caroline

Wind energy is a major source of power in over 70 countries across the world, and the worldwide share of wind energy in electricity consumption is growing. The introduction of signicant amounts of wind energy into power systems makes accurate wind forecasting a crucial element of modern electrical...... grids. These systems require forecasts with temporal scales of tens of minutes to a few days in advance at wind farm locations. Traditionally these forecasts predict the wind at turbine hub heights; this information is then converted by transmission system operators and energy companies into predictions...... of power output at wind farms. Since the power available in the wind is proportional to the wind speed cubed, even small wind forecast errors result in large power prediction errors. Accurate wind forecasts are worth billions of dollars annually; forecast improvements will result in reduced costs...

Improving short-term forecasting during ramp events by means of Regime-Switching Artificial Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Gallego, C.; Costa, A.; Cuerva, A.

2010-09-01

Since nowadays wind energy can't be neither scheduled nor large-scale storaged, wind power forecasting has been useful to minimize the impact of wind fluctuations. In particular, short-term forecasting (characterised by prediction horizons from minutes to a few days) is currently required by energy producers (in a daily electricity market context) and the TSO's (in order to keep the stability/balance of an electrical system). Within the short-term background, time-series based models (i.e., statistical models) have shown a better performance than NWP models for horizons up to few hours. These models try to learn and replicate the dynamic shown by the time series of a certain variable. When considering the power output of wind farms, ramp events are usually observed, being characterized by a large positive gradient in the time series (ramp-up) or negative (ramp-down) during relatively short time periods (few hours). Ramp events may be motivated by many different causes, involving generally several spatial scales, since the large scale (fronts, low pressure systems) up to the local scale (wind turbine shut-down due to high wind speed, yaw misalignment due to fast changes of wind direction). Hence, the output power may show unexpected dynamics during ramp events depending on the underlying processes; consequently, traditional statistical models considering only one dynamic for the hole power time series may be inappropriate. This work proposes a Regime Switching (RS) model based on Artificial Neural Nets (ANN). The RS-ANN model gathers as many ANN's as different dynamics considered (called regimes); a certain ANN is selected so as to predict the output power, depending on the current regime. The current regime is on-line updated based on a gradient criteria, regarding the past two values of the output power. 3 Regimes are established, concerning ramp events: ramp-up, ramp-down and no-ramp regime. In order to assess the skillness of the proposed RS-ANN model, a single

Determining the bounds of skilful forecast range for probabilistic prediction of system-wide wind power generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirk Cannon

2017-06-01

Full Text Available State-of-the-art wind power forecasts beyond a few hours ahead rely on global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the future large-scale atmospheric state. Often they provide initial and boundary conditions for nested high resolution simulations. In this paper, both upper and lower bounds on forecast range are identified within which global ensemble forecasts provide skilful information for system-wide wind power applications. An upper bound on forecast range is associated with the limit of predictability, beyond which forecasts have no more skill than predictions based on climatological statistics. A lower bound is defined at the lead time beyond which the resolved uncertainty associated with estimating the future large-scale atmospheric state is larger than the unresolved uncertainty associated with estimating the system-wide wind power response to a given large-scale state.The bounds of skilful ensemble forecast range are quantified for three leading global forecast systems. The power system of Great Britain (GB is used as an example because independent verifying data is available from National Grid. The upper bound defined by forecasts of GB-total wind power generation at a specific point in time is found to be 6–8 days. The lower bound is found to be 1.4–2.4 days. Both bounds depend on the global forecast system and vary seasonally. In addition, forecasts of the probability of an extreme power ramp event were found to possess a shorter limit of predictability (4.5–5.5 days. The upper bound on this forecast range can only be extended by improving the global forecast system (outside the control of most users or by changing the metric used in the probability forecast. Improved downscaling and microscale modelling of the wind farm response may act to decrease the lower bound. The potential gain from such improvements have diminishing returns beyond the short-range (out to around 2 days.

Lightning and severe thunderstorms in event management.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Katie M

2012-01-01

There are a few national position stands/guidelines that address environmental conditions in athletics, yet they do not govern all outdoor sports. Extreme heat and cold, lightning, and severe wind can all be fatal, yet the majority of outdoor sports have no published guidelines addressing these conditions in relation to activity. Available research on extreme heat and cold conditions in athletics provides prevention strategies, to include acclimatization. Lightning and severe wind are two environmental conditions to which humans cannot accommodate, and they both can be deadly. There are strong positions on extreme heat/cold and lightning safety in athletics, but none affiliated with severe winds. Medical personnel involved in planning large outdoor sporting events must know of the presence of nationally published weather-related documents and apply them to their event. In addition, research needs to be expanded in the realm of establishing guidelines for safety to participants and spectators in severe wind conditions.

Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

OpenAIRE

Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

2014-01-01

The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic stations (airports) of North Germany (Bremen, Hamburg and Hannover) were considered for the construction of time series of daily maximum wind speeds. All daily wind extremes were found to be linked...

Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

2005-07-01

Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are

Wind stress over the Arabian Sea from ship reports and Seasat scatterometer data

Science.gov (United States)

Perigaud, C.; Minster, J. F.; Delecluse, P.

1989-01-01

Seasat scatterometer data over the Arabian Sea are used to build wind-stress fields during July and August 1978. They are first compared with 3-day wind analyses from ship data along the Somali coast. Seasat scatterometer specifications of 2-m/s and 20-deg accuracy are fulfilled in almost all cases. The exceptions are for winds stronger than 14 m/s, which are underestimated by the scatterometer by 15 percent. Wind stress is derived from these wind data using a bulk formula with a drag coefficient depending on the wind intensity. A successive-correction objective analysis is used to build the wind-stress field over the Arabian Sea with 2 x 2-deg and 6-day resolution. The final wind-stress fields are not significantly dependent on the objective analysis because of the dense coverage of the scatterometer. The combination of scatterometer and coastal ship data gives the best coverage to resolve monsoon wind structures even close to the coast. The final wind stress fields show wind features consistent with other monthly mean wind stress field. However, a high variability is observed on the 6-day time scale.

Hourly Wind Speed Interval Prediction in Arid Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

2013-12-01

The long and extended warm and dry summers, the low rate of rain and humidity are the main factors that explain the increase of electricity consumption in hot arid regions. In such regions, the ventilating and air-conditioning installations, that are typically the most energy-intensive among energy consumption activities, are essential for securing healthy, safe and suitable indoor thermal conditions for building occupants and stored materials. The use of renewable energy resources such as solar and wind represents one of the most relevant solutions to overcome the increase of the electricity demand challenge. In the recent years, wind energy is gaining more importance among the researchers worldwide. Wind energy is intermittent in nature and hence the power system scheduling and dynamic control of wind turbine requires an estimate of wind energy. Accurate forecast of wind speed is a challenging task for the wind energy research field. In fact, due to the large variability of wind speed caused by the unpredictable and dynamic nature of the earth's atmosphere, there are many fluctuations in wind power production. This inherent variability of wind speed is the main cause of the uncertainty observed in wind power generation. Furthermore, producing wind power forecasts might be obtained indirectly by modeling the wind speed series and then transforming the forecasts through a power curve. Wind speed forecasting techniques have received substantial attention recently and several models have been developed. Basically two main approaches have been proposed in the literature: (1) physical models such as Numerical Weather Forecast and (2) statistical models such as Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, Neural Networks. While the initial focus in the literature has been on point forecasts, the need to quantify forecast uncertainty and communicate the risk of extreme ramp events has led to an interest in producing probabilistic forecasts. In short term

Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

2010-12-01

individual wind turbines. The information is utilized by several technologies including: a) the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which generates finely detailed simulations of future atmospheric conditions, b) the Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation System (RTFDDA), which performs continuous data assimilation providing the WRF model with continuous updates of the initial atmospheric state, 3) the Dynamic Integrated Forecast System (DICast®), which statistically optimizes the forecasts using all predictors, and 4) a suite of wind-to-power algorithms that convert wind speed to power for a wide range of wind farms with varying real-time data availability capabilities. In addition to these core wind energy prediction capabilities, NCAR implemented a high-resolution (10 km grid increment) 30-member ensemble RTFDDA prediction system that provides information on the expected range of wind power over a 72-hour forecast period covering Xcel Energy’s service areas. This talk will include descriptions of these capabilities and report on several topics including initial results of next-day forecasts and nowcasts of wind energy ramp events, influence of local observations on forecast skill, and overall lessons learned to date.

Dynamics of cyanobacterial bloom formation during short-term hydrodynamic fluctuation in a large shallow, eutrophic, and wind-exposed Lake Taihu, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Tingfeng; Qin, Boqiang; Zhu, Guangwei; Luo, Liancong; Ding, Yanqing; Bian, Geya

2013-12-01

Short-term hydrodynamic fluctuations caused by extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide because of global climate change, and such fluctuations can strongly influence cyanobacterial blooms. In this study, the cyanobacterial bloom disappearance and reappearance in Lake Taihu, China, in response to short-term hydrodynamic fluctuations, was investigated by field sampling, long-term ecological records, high-frequency sensors and MODIS satellite images. The horizontal drift caused by the dominant easterly wind during the phytoplankton growth season was mainly responsible for cyanobacterial biomass accumulation in the western and northern regions of the lake and subsequent bloom formation over relatively long time scales. The cyanobacterial bloom changed slowly under calm or gentle wind conditions. In contrast, the short-term bloom events within a day were mainly caused by entrainment and disentrainment of cyanobacterial colonies by wind-induced hydrodynamics. Observation of a westerly event in Lake Taihu revealed that when the 30 min mean wind speed (flow speed) exceeded the threshold value of 6 m/s (5.7 cm/s), cyanobacteria in colonies were entrained by the wind-induced hydrodynamics. Subsequently, the vertical migration of cyanobacterial colonies was controlled by hydrodynamics, resulting in thorough mixing of algal biomass throughout the water depth and the eventual disappearance of surface blooms. Moreover, the intense mixing can also increase the chance for forming larger and more cyanobacterial colonies, namely, aggregation. Subsequently, when the hydrodynamics became weak, the cyanobacterial colonies continuously float upward without effective buoyancy regulation, and cause cyanobacterial bloom explosive expansion after the westerly. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate that the strong wind happening frequently during April and October can be an important cause of the formation and expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu.

Substorm-related thermospheric density and wind disturbances derived from CHAMP observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Ritter

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The input of energy and momentum from the magnetosphere is most efficiently coupled into the high latitude ionosphere-thermosphere. The phenomenon we are focusing on here is the magnetospheric substorm. This paper presents substorm related observations of the thermosphere derived from the CHAMP satellite. With its sensitive accelerometer the satellite can measure the air density and zonal winds. Based on a large number of substorm events the average high and low latitude thermospheric response to substorm onsets was deduced. During magnetic substorms the thermospheric density is enhanced first at high latitudes. Then the disturbance travels at an average speed of 650 m/s to lower latitudes, and 3–4 h later the bulge reaches the equator on the night side. Under the influence of the Coriolis force the travelling atmospheric disturbance (TAD is deflected westward. In accordance with present-day atmospheric models the disturbance zonal wind velocities during substorms are close to zero near the equator before midnight and attain moderate westward velocities after midnight. In general, the wind system is only weakly perturbed (Δvy<20 m/s by substorms.

Effect of wind turbine wakes on summer-time wind profiles in the US Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodes, M. E.; Lundquist, J. K.; Aitken, M.

2011-12-01

Wind energy is steadily becoming a significant source of grid electricity in the United States, and the Midwestern United States provides one of the nation's richest wind resources. This study examines the effect of wind turbine wakes on the wind profile in central Iowa. Data were collected using a coherent Doppler LiDAR system located approximately 2.5 rotor diameters north of a row of modern multi-MW wind turbine generators. The prevailing wind direction was from the South allowing the LiDAR to capture wind turbine wake properties; however, a number of periods existed where the LiDAR captured undisturbed flow. The LiDAR system reliably obtained readings up to 200 m above ground level (AGL), spanning the entire rotor disk (~40 m to 120 m AGL) which far surpasses the information provided by traditional wind resource assessment instrumentation. We extract several relevant parameters from the lidar data including: horizontal wind speed, vertical velocity, horizontal turbulence intensity, wind shear, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). Each time period at a particular LiDAR measurement height was labeled "wake" or "undisturbed" based on the wind direction at that height. Wake and undisturbed data were averaged separately to create a time-height cross-section averaged day for each parameter. Significant differences between wake and undisturbed data emerge. During the day, wake conditions experience larger values of TKE within the altitudes of the turbine rotor disk while TKE values above the rotor disk are similar between waked and undisturbed conditions. Furthermore, the morning transition of TKE in the atmospheric boundary layer commences earlier during wake conditions than in undisturbed conditions, and the evening decay of TKE persists longer during wake conditions. Waked wind shear is consistently greater than undisturbed periods at the edges of the wind turbine rotor disk (40m & 120m AGL), but especially so during the night where wind shear values during wake

A comparison of the ground magnetic responses during the 2013 and 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xu, Z.; Hartinger, M. D.; Clauer, Robert C.

2017-01-01

The magnetosphere-ionosphere system response to extreme solar wind driving conditions depends on both the driving conditions and ionospheric conductivity. Since extreme driving conditions are rare, there are few opportunities to control for one parameter or another. The 17 March 2013 and 17 March...... 2015 geomagnetic storms driven by coronal mass ejections (CME) provide one such opportunity. The two events occur during the same solar illumination conditions; in particular, both occur near equinox on the same day of the year leading to similar ionospheric conductivity profiles. Moreover, both CMEs...... systems. There are dramatic differences between the intensity, onset time and occurrence, duration, and spatial structure of the current systems in each case. For example, differing solar wind driving conditions lead to interhemispheric asymmetries in the high-latitude ground magnetic response during...

Modeling and control of Type-2 wind turbines for sub-synchronous resonance damping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mancilla-David, Fernando; Domínguez-García, José Luis; De Prada, Mikel; Gomis-Bellmunt, Oriol; Singh, Mohit; Muljadi, Eduard

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Dynamic modeling of Type-2 wind turbines for sub-synchronous resonance studies. • Systematic design of a power system stabilizer for Type-2 wind turbines. • Assessment of Type-2 wind turbines to suppress sub-synchronous resonance events. - Abstract: The rapid increase of wind power penetration into power systems around the world has led transmission system operators to enforce stringent grid codes requiring novel functionalities from renewable energy-based power generation. For this reason, there exists a need to asses whether wind turbines (WTs) will comply with such functionalities to ensure power system stability. This paper demonstrates that Type-2 WTs may induce sub-synchronous resonance (SSR) events when connected to a series-compensated transmission line, and with proper control, they may also suppress such events. The paper presents a complete dynamic model tailored to study, via eigenanalysis, SSR events in the presence of Type-2 WTs, and a systematic procedure to design a power system stabilizer using only local and measurable signals. Results are validated through a case study based on the IEEE first benchmark model for SSR studies, as well as with transient computer simulations

Solar wind radiation damage in lunar dust grains and the characteristics of the ancient solar wind

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borg, J.; Chaumont, J.

1980-01-01

Current understanding of the exposure history of lunar dust grains to the ancient solar wind is reviewed, the work being based mostly on a Monte Carlo statistical code, describing the 'gardening' effects of the meteorite bombardment in the lunar regolith, and on analytical models, yielding the lifetimes of the grains against various types of destruction processes. Families of lunar dust grains are identified, and evidence is presented showing that lunar dust grains were not partially shielded from solar wind ions. Results of solar wind simulation experiments are used to interpret the thickness distribution of the amorphous coatings of solar wind radiation-damaged material observed on 1-micron lunar dust grains. It is argued that such distributions reflect the speed distribution of the ancient solar wind as averaged over periods of approximately 5000 years in duration, and that the ancient solar wind is less energetic than the present day solar wind

Combined Ulysses Solar Wind and SOHO Coronal Observations of Several West Limb Coronal Mass Ejections. Appendix 8

Science.gov (United States)

Funsten, H. O.; Gosling, J. T.; Riley, P.; St.Cyr, O. C.; Forsyth, R. J.; Howard, R. A.; Schwenn, R.

2001-01-01

From October 1996 to January 1997, Ulysses was situated roughly above the west limb of the Sun as observed from Earth at a heliocentric distance of about 4.6 AU and a latitude of about 25 deg. This presents the first opportunity to compare Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) limb observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) directly with their solar wind counterparts far from the Sun using the Ulysses data. During this interval, large eruptive events were observed above the west limb of the Sun by the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on SOHO on October 5, November 28, and December 21-25, 1996. Using the combined plasma and magnetic field data from Ulysses, the October 5 event was clearly identified by several distinguishing signatures as a CME. The November 28 event was also identified as a CME that trailed fast ambient solar wind, although it was identified only by an extended interval of counterstreaming suprathermal electrons. The December 21 event was apparently characterized by a six-day interval of nearly radial field and a plasma rarefaction. For the numerous eruptive events observed by the LASCO coronagraph during December 23-25, Ulysses showed no distinct, CMEs, perhaps because of intermingling of two or more of the eruptive events. By mapping the Ulysses observations back in time to the Sun assuming a constant flow speed, we have identified intervals of plasma that were accelerated or decelerated between the LASCO and Ulysses observations.

Flexible reserve markets for wind integration

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, Alisha R.

reserve market, identifying the operational constraints that inhibit a multi-purpose dam facility to meet the desired flexible energy demand. The second study transitions from the hydroelectric facility as the decision maker providing flex reserve services to the wind plant as the decision maker purchasing these services. In this second study, methods for allocating the costs of flex reserve services under different wind policy scenarios are explored that aggregate farms into different groupings to identify the least-cost strategy for balancing the costs of hourly day-ahead forecast errors. The least-cost strategy may be different for an individual wind plant and for the system operator, noting that the least-cost strategy is highly sensitive to cost allocation and aggregation schemes. The latter may also cause cross-subsidies in the cost for balancing wind forecast errors among the different wind farms. The third study builds from the second, with the objective to quantify the amount of flex reserves needed for balancing future forecast errors using a probabilistic approach (quantile regression) to estimating future forecast errors. The results further examine the usefulness of separate flexible markets PJM could use for balancing oversupply and undersupply events, similar to the regulation up and down markets used in Europe. These three studies provide the following results and insights to large-scale wind integration using actual PJM wind farm data that describe the markets and generators within PJM. • Chapter 2 provides an in-depth analysis of the valuable, yet highly-constrained, energy services multi-purpose hydroelectric facilities can provide, though the opportunity cost for providing these services can result in large deviations from the reservoir policies with minimal revenue gain in comparison to dedicating the whole of dam capacity to providing day-ahead, baseload generation. • Chapter 3 quantifies the system-wide efficiency gains and the distributive

WIND VARIABILITY IN BZ CAMELOPARDALIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Honeycutt, R. K.; Kafka, S.; Robertson, J. W.

2013-01-01

Sequences of spectra of the nova-like cataclysmic variable (CV) BZ Cam were acquired on nine nights in 2005-2006 in order to study the time development of episodes of wind activity known to occur frequently in this star. We confirm the results of Ringwald and Naylor that the P-Cygni absorption components of the lines mostly evolve from higher expansion velocity to lower velocity as an episode progresses. We also commonly find blueshifted emission components in the Hα line profile, whose velocities and durations strongly suggest that they are also due to the wind. Curiously, Ringwald and Naylor reported common occurrences of redshifted Hα emission components in their BZ Cam spectra. We have attributed these emission components in Hα to occasions when gas concentrations in the bipolar wind (both front side and back side) become manifested as emission lines as they move beyond the disk's outer edge. We also suggest, based on changes in the P-Cygni profiles during an episode, that the progression from larger to smaller expansion velocities is due to the higher velocity portions of a wind concentration moving beyond the edge of the continuum light of the disk first, leaving a net redward shift of the remaining absorption profile. We derive a new orbital ephemeris for BZ Cam, using the radial velocity of the core of the He I λ5876 line, finding P = 0.15353(4). Using this period, the wind episodes in BZ Cam are found to be concentrated near the inferior conjunction of the emission line source. This result helps confirm that the winds in nova-like CVs are often phase dependent, in spite of the puzzling implication that such winds lack axisymmetry. We argue that the radiation-driven wind in BZ Cam receives an initial boost by acting on gas that has been lifted above the disk by the interaction of the accretion stream with the disk, thereby imposing flickering timescales onto the wind events, as well as leading to an orbital modulation of the wind due to the non

Offshore winds mapped from satellite remote sensing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hasager, Charlotte Bay

2014-01-01

the uncertainty on the model results on the offshore wind resource, it is necessary to compare model results with observations. Observations from ground-based wind lidar and satellite remote sensing are the two main technologies that can provide new types of offshore wind data at relatively low cost....... The advantages of microwave satellite remote sensing are 1) horizontal spatial coverage, 2) long data archives and 3) high spatial detail both in the coastal zone and of far-field wind farm wake. Passive microwave ocean wind speed data are available since 1987 with up to 6 observations per day with near...

Mechanics of Interrill Erosion with Wind-Driven Rain (WDR)

Science.gov (United States)

This article provides an evaluation analysis for the performance of the interrill component of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for Wind-Driven Rain (WDR) events. The interrill delivery rates (Di) were collected in the wind tunnel rainfall simulator facility of the International Cen...

Classification of Rotor Induced Shearing Events in the Near Wake of a Wind Turbine Array Boundary Layer

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Sarah; Viggiano, Bianca; Ali, Naseem; Cal, Raul Bayoan

2017-11-01

Flow perturbation induced by a turbine rotor imposes considerable turbulence and shearing effects in the near wake of a turbine, altering the efficiency of subsequent units within a wind farm array. Previous methods have characterized near wake vorticity of a turbine and recovery distance of various turbine array configurations. This study aims to build on previous analysis with respect to a turbine rotor within an array and develop a model to examine stress events and energy contribution in the near wake due to rotational effects. Hot wire anemometry was employed downstream of a turbine centrally located in the third row of a 3x3 array. Data considered points planar to the rotor and included simultaneous streamwise and wall-normal velocities as well as concurrent streamwise and transverse velocities. Conditional analysis of Reynolds stresses induced by the rotor agree with former near wake research, and examination of stresses in terms of streamwise and transverse velocity components depicts areas of significant rotational effects. Continued analysis includes spectral decomposition and conditional statistics to further characterize shearing events at various points considering the swept area of the rotor.

Distinct wind convergence patterns in the Mexico City basin due to the interaction of the gap winds with the synoptic flow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. de Foy

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Mexico City lies in a high altitude basin where air quality and pollutant fate is strongly influenced by local winds. The combination of high terrain with weak synoptic forcing leads to weak and variable winds with complex circulation patterns. A gap wind entering the basin in the afternoon leads to very different wind convergence lines over the city depending on the meteorological conditions. Surface and upper-air meteorological observations are analysed during the MCMA-2003 field campaign to establish the meteorological conditions and obtain an index of the strength and timing of the gap wind. A mesoscale meteorological model (MM5 is used in combination with high-resolution satellite data for the land surface parameters and soil moisture maps derived from diurnal ground temperature range. A simple method to map the lines of wind convergence both in the basin and on the regional scale is used to show the different convergence patterns according to episode types. The gap wind is found to occur on most days of the campaign and is the result of a temperature gradient across the southern basin rim which is very similar from day to day. Momentum mixing from winds aloft into the surface layer is much more variable and can determine both the strength of the flow and the pattern of the convergence zones. Northerly flows aloft lead to a weak jet with an east-west convergence line that progresses northwards in the late afternoon and early evening. Westerlies aloft lead to both stronger gap flows due to channelling and winds over the southern and western basin rim. This results in a north-south convergence line through the middle of the basin starting in the early afternoon. Improved understanding of basin meteorology will lead to better air quality forecasts for the city and better understanding of the chemical regimes in the urban atmosphere.

Distinct wind convergence patterns in the Mexico City basin due to the interaction of the gap winds with the synoptic flow

Science.gov (United States)

de Foy, B.; Clappier, A.; Molina, L. T.; Molina, M. J.

2006-04-01

Mexico City lies in a high altitude basin where air quality and pollutant fate is strongly influenced by local winds. The combination of high terrain with weak synoptic forcing leads to weak and variable winds with complex circulation patterns. A gap wind entering the basin in the afternoon leads to very different wind convergence lines over the city depending on the meteorological conditions. Surface and upper-air meteorological observations are analysed during the MCMA-2003 field campaign to establish the meteorological conditions and obtain an index of the strength and timing of the gap wind. A mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) is used in combination with high-resolution satellite data for the land surface parameters and soil moisture maps derived from diurnal ground temperature range. A simple method to map the lines of wind convergence both in the basin and on the regional scale is used to show the different convergence patterns according to episode types. The gap wind is found to occur on most days of the campaign and is the result of a temperature gradient across the southern basin rim which is very similar from day to day. Momentum mixing from winds aloft into the surface layer is much more variable and can determine both the strength of the flow and the pattern of the convergence zones. Northerly flows aloft lead to a weak jet with an east-west convergence line that progresses northwards in the late afternoon and early evening. Westerlies aloft lead to both stronger gap flows due to channelling and winds over the southern and western basin rim. This results in a north-south convergence line through the middle of the basin starting in the early afternoon. Improved understanding of basin meteorology will lead to better air quality forecasts for the city and better understanding of the chemical regimes in the urban atmosphere.

Emerging Wind Energy Opportunities in the Federal Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robichaud, Robi

2016-08-08

Robi Robichaud made this presentation as part of an Energy Technology session at the Energy Exchange event, which is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. The presentation discusses a wind energy industry update, technology trends, financing options at federal facilities, and creative approaches for developing wind projects at federal facilities.

Facilitating wind development: the importance of electric industry structure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirby, Brendan; Milligan, Michael

2008-04-15

ISOs and RTOs, with their day-ahead and real-time markets, large geographies to aggregate diverse wind resources, large loads to aggregate with wind, large generation pools that tap conventional-generator flexibility, and regional transmission planning efforts, offer the best environments for wind generation to develop. (author)

Application and verification of ECMWF seasonal forecast for wind energy

Science.gov (United States)

Žagar, Mark; Marić, Tomislav; Qvist, Martin; Gulstad, Line

2015-04-01

A good understanding of long-term annual energy production (AEP) is crucial when assessing the business case of investing in green energy like wind power. The art of wind-resource assessment has emerged into a scientific discipline on its own, which has advanced at high pace over the last decade. This has resulted in continuous improvement of the AEP accuracy and, therefore, increase in business case certainty. Harvesting the full potential output of a wind farm or a portfolio of wind farms depends heavily on optimizing operation and management strategy. The necessary information for short-term planning (up to 14 days) is provided by standard weather and power forecasting services, and the long-term plans are based on climatology. However, the wind-power industry is lacking quality information on intermediate scales of the expected variability in seasonal and intra-annual variations and their geographical distribution. The seasonal power forecast presented here is designed to bridge this gap. The seasonal power production forecast is based on the ECMWF seasonal weather forecast and the Vestas' high-resolution, mesoscale weather library. The seasonal weather forecast is enriched through a layer of statistical post-processing added to relate large-scale wind speed anomalies to mesoscale climatology. The resulting predicted energy production anomalies, thus, include mesoscale effects not captured by the global forecasting systems. The turbine power output is non-linearly related to the wind speed, which has important implications for the wind power forecast. In theory, the wind power is proportional to the cube of wind speed. However, due to the nature of turbine design, this exponent is close to 3 only at low wind speeds, becomes smaller as the wind speed increases, and above 11-13 m/s the power output remains constant, called the rated power. The non-linear relationship between wind speed and the power output generally increases sensitivity of the forecasted power

Constraining 20th Century Pacific Trade-Wind Variability Using Coral Mn/Ca

Science.gov (United States)

Sayani, H. R.; Thompson, D. M.; Carilli, J.; Ireland, T. J.; Cobb, K. M.; Atwood, A. R.; Grothe, P. R.; Miller, S. J.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.

2017-12-01

Global mean surface temperatures during the 20th century are characterized by multidecadal periods of either accelerated or reduced rates of warming that cannot be explained by external forcings alone. Both observations and modeling studies suggest that the reduced rate of global surface warming during the early-2000s can be largely explained by decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific, specifically changes in trade-wind strength [e.g. Meehl et al., 2016]. However, the relationship between Pacific trade-wind strength and global surface warming is poorly constrained due to the lack of instrumental wind observations prior to the 1970s. Surface corals are now routinely used to generate records of past sea-surface temperature (SST) change, and have dramatically improved our understanding of oceanic variability in the tropical Pacific. Yet, there are few direct measurements of the atmospheric response to this SST variability. Skeletal Mn/Ca ratios in corals from Tarawa Atoll (1.3˚N, 173˚E) have been shown to track El Niño-related westerly wind events on interannual timescales [Shen et al., 1992], and the strength of Pacific trade winds on decadal timescales [Thompson et al., 2015]. Here, we investigate the utility of this novel wind proxy at Kiritimati Atoll (Christmas Island; 2˚N, 157.5˚W), a site that is hydrographically similar to Tarawa. We use a series of seawater samples collected across the 2015/16 El Niño to characterize and quantify the relationship between westerly wind events and seawater Mn variability around Kiritimati. Anchored by this modern-day calibration, we present a new reconstruction of westerly winds across the late-20thcentury from Kiritimati Atoll. We also assess the reproducibility of coral Mn/Ca across cores collected at varying distances from the lagoon, which represents the primary source of seawater Mn to the reef at our site. Lastly, we discuss the strengths and limitations of this novel proxy, as well as the potential for

Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2015-05-21

This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

Observed Benefits to On-site Medical Services during an Annual 5-day Electronic Dance Music Event with Harm Reduction Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Munn, Matthew Brendan; Lund, Adam; Golby, Riley; Turris, Sheila A

2016-04-01

With increasing attendance and media attention, large-scale electronic dance music events (EDMEs) are a subset of mass gatherings that have a unique risk profile for attendees and promoters. Shambhala Music Festival (Canada) is a multi-day event in a rural setting with a recognized history of providing harm reduction (HR) services alongside medical care. Study/Objective This manuscript describes the medical response at a multi-day electronic music festival where on-site HR interventions and dedicated medical care are delivered as parallel public health measures. This study was a descriptive case report. Medical encounters and event-related data were documented prospectively using an established event registry database. In 2014, Shambhala Music Festival had 67,120 cumulative attendees over a 7-day period, with a peak daily attendance of 15,380 people. There were 1,393 patient encounters and the patient presentation rate (PPR) was 20.8 per one thousand. The majority of these (90.9%) were for non-urgent complaints. The ambulance transfer rate (ATR) was 0.194 per one thousand and 0.93% of patient encounters were transferred by ambulance. No patients required intubation and there were no fatalities. Harm reduction services included mobile outreach teams, distribution of educational materials, pill checking facilities, a dedicated women's space, and a "Sanctuary" area that provided non-medical peer support for overwhelmed guests. More than 10,000 encounters were recorded by mobile and booth-based preventive and educational services, and 2,786 pills were checked on-site with a seven percent discard rate. Dedicated medical and HR services represent two complementary public health strategies to minimize risk at a multi-day electronic music festival. The specific extent to which HR strategies reduce the need for medical care is not well understood. Incorporation of HR practices when planning on-site medical care has the potential to inform patient management, reduce

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijland, L.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of

Multi-Day Activity Scheduling Reactions to Planned Activities and Future Events in a Dynamic Model of Activity-Travel Behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijland, L.; Arentze, T.; Timmermans, H.

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of

Sun-Earth Day, 2001

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Mitzi L.; Mortfield, P.; Hathaway, D. H.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

To promote awareness of the Sun-Earth connection, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, in collaboration with the Stanford SOLAR Center, sponsored a one-day Sun-Earth Day event on April 27, 2001. Although "celebrated" on only one day, teachers and students from across the nation, prepared for over a month in advance. Workshops were held in March to train teachers. Students performed experiments, results of which were shared through video clips and an internet web cast. Our poster includes highlights from student experiments (grades 2 - 12), lessons learned from the teacher workshops and the event itself, and plans for Sun-Earth Day 2002.

Full scale experimental analysis of wind direction changes (EOD)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

2007-01-01

wind direction gust amplitudes associated with the investigated European sites are low compared to the recommended IEC- values. However, these values, as function of the mean wind speed, are difficult to validate thoroughly due to the limited number of fully correlated measurements....... the magnitudes of a joint gust event defined by a simultaneously wind speed- and direction change in order to obtain an indication of the validity of the magnitudes specified in the IEC code. The analysis relates to pre-specified recurrence periods and is based on full-scale wind field measurements. The wind......A coherent wind speed and wind direction change (ECD) load case is defined in the wind turbine standard. This load case is an essential extreme load case that e.g. may be design driving for flap defection of active stall controlled wind turbines. The present analysis identifies statistically...

Reliability of Offshore Wind Turbine Drivetrains based on Measured Shut-down Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Natarajan, Anand; Buhl, Thomas

2015-01-01

by initiating blade pitching to feather and also sometimes using the generator torqueas a brake mechanism. The shutdowns due to wind speed variation nearcut-out are predicted using an Inverse First Order Reliability Model(IFORM) whereby an expected annual frequency of normal shutdownsat cut-out is put forth...... normal operation and with shutdowns. The maximum coefficient of variation (CoV) due to varying wind conditions was found on the low speed shaft torsion, but the shutdowns by themselves were not seento significantly change the fatigue loads....

Dynamical Changes Induced by the Solar Proton Events in October-November 2003

Science.gov (United States)

Jackman, C. H.; Roble, R. G.; Fleming, E. L.

2006-05-01

The very large solar storms in October-November 2003 caused solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth and impacted the upper atmospheric polar cap regions. The Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Mode (TIME-GCM) was used to study the atmospheric dynamical influence of the solar protons that occurred in Oct-Nov 2003, the fourth largest period of SPEs measured in the past 40 years. The highly energetic solar protons caused ionization and changes in the electric field, which led to Joule heating of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This heating led to temperature increases up to 4K in the upper mesosphere. The solar proton-induced ionization, as well as dissociation processes, led to the production of odd hydrogen (HOx) and odd nitrogen (NOy). Substantial (>40%) short-lived ozone decreases followed these enhancements of HOx and NOy and led to a cooling of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. This cooling led to temperature decreases up to 2.5K. The solar proton-caused temperature changes led to maximum meridional and zonal wind variations of +/- 2 m/s on background winds up to +/- 30 m/s. The solar proton-induced wind perturbations were computed to taper off over a period of several days past the SPEs. Solar cycle 23 was accompanied by ten very large SPEs between 1998 and 2005, along with numerous smaller events. These solar proton-driven atmospheric variations need to be carefully considered when examining other polar changes.

Vandenberg Air Force Base Pressure Gradient Wind Study

Science.gov (United States)

Shafer, Jaclyn A.

2013-01-01

Warning category winds can adversely impact day-to-day space lift operations at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. NASA's Launch Services Program and other programs at VAFB use wind forecasts issued by the 30 Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) to determine if they need to limit activities or protect property such as a launch vehicle. The 30 OSSWF tasked the AMU to develop an automated Excel graphical user interface that includes pressure gradient thresholds between specific observing stations under different synoptic regimes to aid forecasters when issuing wind warnings. This required the AMU to determine if relationships between the variables existed.

Global Pc 5 event of November 14--15, 1979

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higbie, P.R.; Baker, D.N.; Zwickl, R.D.; Belian, R.D.; Asbridge, J.R.; Fennell, J.F.; Wilken, B.; Arthur, C.W.

1982-01-01

Large-amplitude Pc 5 waves with 7--8 min quasi-periodic variations were observed almost continuously for the 48 hours of November 14--15, 1979, by several spacecraft in or near geostationary orbit on the dayside portions of their orbits. The waves were observed as large modulations in both the electron and ion fluxes over a wide range of energies (approx.1 to 500 keV) by the spacecraft 1976--059, 1977-007, 1979-053, P78-2, and GEOS 2 and as magnetic field peak-to-peak modulations of 15--25 γ by the P78-2 and GOES 2 and 3 magnetometers. The remarkably long persistence of these waves contrasts substantially with observations of typical flux modulation events which usually last less than 1 hour and which typically show little modulation of the > or =150 keV proton fluxes. Data taken concurrently by the ISEE spacecraft in the solar wind and outer magnetosphere indicate that the solar wind also had unusually properties. ISEE 3 measurements indicate that the solar wind velocity (approx.350 km/s) and density (approx.2 cm -3 ) were simultaneously very low for this period. The alpha-to-proton ratio for the solar wind plasma attained an extremely low value (<1%) early in the event. These solar wind properties imply such a much reduced dynamic pressure on the magnetosphere during this period. Consequently, the ISEE 1 and 2 spacecraft passed through the magnetopause at the uncommonly large radial distance of 18 R/sub E/ at approx.0830 local time where the typical magnetopause geocentric distance is 12 R/sub E/. The exceptional solar wind and outer magnetospheric conditions may have determined the unusual properties of the ULF event observed near geostationary orbit. Some candidate mechanisms for producing these oscillations are presented, but no definitive explanation for this event can be given at present

Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: 7, "Protestant Wind"-"Popish Wind": The Revolusion of 1688 in England.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindgrén, S.; Neumann, J.

1985-06-01

James II, King of England from 1685 to 1688, increasingly antagonized his people by his forced attempts to restore the Catholic faith to a position of eminence in England; many of his actions were contrary to acts passed by earlier Parliaments (he ruled without Parliament most of his reign). Leading dignitaries of the Church of England, of the Protestant nobility, and some of the high officers of the Army and Navy came to the conclusion that the only remedy to the country's ills was to call in William, the Prince of Orange and Chief Magistrate ("Stadholder") of the Netherlands, whose spouse Mary, James' daughter, was, until July 1688, the heir-presumptive to the English crown; the prince himself had a position in the list of succession, bring a nephew of James.Over and above the prince's personal ambitions, it was his conviction and that of several other leading personalities in the Dutch Republic that it was in the vital interest of the Netherlands to influence England's policies, and, in particular, to prevent a line-up of England with the France of Louis XIV, who had hostile designs on the Republic. As long as the danger of a French assault on the Netherlands was imminent, the States-General of the Republic would not authorize the "descent" on England, but when late in September 1688 Louis decided to attack the German States on the Middle-Rhine first, the "descent" gained approval.The peak of the crisis about James' policies in England was reached in summer-early fall of 1688. In the meantime, William assembled a large fleet and force in the Netherlands to "descend" on England, but his sailing was hindered by winds that in September and October blew with nearly total persistence from the westerly quarter. People in England and in the Netherlands were daily watching for weeks the direction of wind. They called the easterly winds "Protestant winds" and the westerly winds "Popish winds." In addition to making possible the invasion, the "Protestant winds" made it

Observational analyses of dramatic developments of a severe air pollution event in the Beijing area

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ju; Sun, Jielun; Zhou, Mingyu; Cheng, Zhigang; Li, Qingchun; Cao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jingjiang

2018-03-01

A rapid development of a severe air pollution event in Beijing, China, at the end of November 2015 was investigated with unprecedented observations collected during the field campaign of the Study of Urban Rainfall and Fog/Haze (SURF-15). Different from previous statistical analyses of air pollution events and their correlations with meteorological environmental conditions in the area, the role of turbulent mixing in the pollutant transfer was investigated in detail. The analyses indicate that the major pollution source associated with high particulate matter of diameter 2.5 µm (PM2.5) was from south of Beijing. Before the day of the dramatic PM2.5 increase, the nighttime downslope flow from the mountains to the west and north of Beijing reduced the surface PM2.5 concentration northwest of Beijing. The nighttime surface stable boundary layer (SBL) not only kept the relatively less-polluted air near the surface, it also shielded the rough surface from the pollutant transfer by southwesterly winds above the SBL, leading to the fast transport of pollutants over the Beijing area at night. As the daytime convective turbulent mixing developed in the morning, turbulent mixing transported the elevated polluted air downward even though the weak surface wind was from northeast, leading to the dramatic increase of the surface PM2.5 concentration in the urban area. As a result of both turbulent mixing and advection processes with possible aerosol growth from secondary aerosol formation under the low-wind and high-humidity conditions, the PM2.5 concentration reached over 700 µg m-3 in the Beijing area by the end of the day. Contributions of the two transporting processes to the PM2.5 oscillations prior to this dramatic event were also analyzed. The study demonstrates the important role of large-eddy convective turbulent mixing in vertical transfer of pollutants and the role of the SBL in not only decoupling vertical transport of trace gases and aerosols but also in

The influence of solar wind on extratropical cyclones – Part 1: Wilcox effect revisited

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Rybanský

2009-01-01

mean VAI response to SBP associated with the north-to-south reversal of BZ is leading by up to 2 days the mean VAI response to SBP associated with the south-to-north reversal of BZ. For the latter, less geoeffective events, the VAI minimum deepens (with the above exception of the Northern Hemisphere low-aerosol 500-mb VAI and the VAI maximum is delayed. The phase shift between the mean VAI responses obtained for these two subsets of SBP events may explain the reduced amplitude of the overall Wilcox effect. In a companion paper, Prikryl et al. (2009 propose a new mechanism to explain the Wilcox effect, namely that solar-wind-generated auroral atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs influence the growth of extratropical cyclones. It is also observed that severe extratropical storms, explosive cyclogenesis and significant sea level pressure deepenings of extratropical storms tend to occur within a few days of the arrival of high-speed solar wind. These observations are discussed in the context of the proposed AGW mechanism as well as the previously suggested atmospheric electrical current (AEC model (Tinsley et al., 1994, which requires the presence of stratospheric aerosols for a significant (Wilcox effect.

Sunwatchers Across Time: Sun-Earth Day from Ancient and Modern Solar Observatories

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, I.; Vondrak, R.

Humans across all cultures have venerated, observed, and studied the Sun for thousands of years. The Sun, our nearest star, provides heat and energy, is the cause of the seasons, and causes space weather effects that influence our technology-dependent society. The Sun is also part of indigenous tradition and culture. The Inca believed that the Sun had the power to make things grow, and it does, providing us with the heat and energy that are essential to our survival. From a NASA perspective, Sun-Earth Connection research investigates the effects of our active Sun on the Earth and other planets, namely, the interaction of the solar wind and other dynamic space weather phenomena with the solar system. We present plans for Sun-Earth Day 2005, a yearly celebration of the Sun-Earth Connection sponsored by the NASA Sun-Earth Connection Education Forum (SECEF). SECEF is one of four national centers of space science education and public outreach funded by NASA Office of Space Science. Sun-Earth Day involves an international audience of schools, science museums, and the general public in activities and events related to learning about the Sun-Earth Connection. During the year 2005, the program will highlight cultural and historical perspectives, as well as NASA science, through educational and public outreach events intended to involve diverse communities. Sun-Earth Day 2005 will include a series of webcasts from solar observatories produced by SECEF in partnership with the San Francisco Exploratorium. Webcasts from Chaco Culture National Historical Park in New Mexico, USA, and from Chichen Itza, Mexico, will be accessed by schools and the public. Sun-Earth Day will also feature NASA Sun-Earth Connection research, missions, and the people who make it possible. One of the goals of this talk is to inform and engage COSPAR participants in these upcoming public events sponsored by NASA. Another goal is to share best practices in public event programming, and present impact

Science Activities in Energy: Wind Energy.

Science.gov (United States)

Oak Ridge Associated Universities, TN.

Included in this science activities energy package are 12 activities related to wind energy for elementary students. Each activity is outlined on a single card and is introduced by a question. Topics include: (1) At what time of day is there enough wind to make electricity where you live?; (2) Where is the windiest spot on your schoolground?; and…

Wind farm layout optimization in complex terrain with CFD wakes: Paper presented at EWEA 2015, Europe's Premier Wind Energy Event, 17 - 20 November 2015, Paris, France

OpenAIRE

Schmidt, J.; Stoevesandt, B.

2015-01-01

For a complex terrain site in Bahia, Brazil, 28 CFDRANS simulations were carried out, representing the relevant states of a wind rose with three degrees resolution. The resulting wind fields provide the background wind for the layout optimization of a wind farm with 64 wind turbines based on the AEP. The underlying wake model was deduced from CFD-RANS simulation results of an isolated actuator disk. We find that a hybrid optimization algorithm that combines genetic and gradient-based optimize...

Apportionment of the sources of high fine particulate matter concentration events in a developing aerotropolis in Taoyuan, Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Chuang, Ming-Tung; Chen, Yu-Chieh; Lee, Chung-Te; Cheng, Chung-Hao; Tsai, Yu-Jen; Chang, Shih-Yu; Su, Zhen-Sen

2016-07-01

To investigate the characteristics and contributions of the sources of fine particulate matter with a size of up to 2.5 μm (PM2.5) during the period when pollution events could easily occur in Taoyuan aerotropolis, Taiwan, this study conducted sampling at three-day intervals from September 2014 to January 2015. Based on the mass concentration of PM2.5, the sampling days were classified into high PM2.5 concentration event days (PM2.5>35 μg m(-3)) and non-event days (PM2.5<35 μg m(-3)). In addition, the chemical species, including water-soluble inorganic ions, carbonaceous components, and metal elements, were analyzed. The sources of pollution and their contributions were estimated using the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Furthermore, the effect of the weather type on the measurement results was also explored based on wind field conditions. The mass fractions of Cl(-) and NO3(-) increased when a high PM2.5 concentration event occurred, and they were also higher under local emitted conditions than under long range transported conditions, indicating that secondary nitrate aerosols were the major increasing local species that caused high PM2.5 concentration events. Seven sources of pollution could be distinguished using the PMF model on the basis of the characteristics of the species. Industrial emissions, coal combustion/urban waste incineration, and local emissions from diesel/gasoline vehicles were the main sources that contributed to pollution on high PM2.5 concentration event days. In order to reduction of high PM2.5 concentration events, the control of diesel and gasoline vehicle emission is important and should be given priority. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

2012-12-31

ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

KAUST Repository

Zhu, Xinxin

2012-04-01

The emphasis on renewable energy and concerns about the environment have led to large-scale wind energy penetration worldwide. However, there are also significant challenges associated with the use of wind energy due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High-quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This article begins with an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends. It then reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented. © 2012 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2012 International Statistical Institute.

Wind speed power spectrum analysis for Bushland, Texas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eggleston, E.D. [USDA-Agricultural Research Service, Bushland, TX (United States)

1996-12-31

Numerous papers and publications on wind turbulence have referenced the wind speed spectrum presented by Isaac Van der Hoven in his article entitled Power Spectrum of Horizontal Wind Speed Spectrum in the Frequency Range from 0.0007 to 900 Cycles per Hour. Van der Hoven used data measured at different heights between 91 and 125 meters above the ground, and represented the high frequency end of the spectrum with data from the peak hour of hurricane Connie. These facts suggest we should question the use of his power spectrum in the wind industry. During the USDA - Agricultural Research Service`s investigation of wind/diesel system power storage, using the appropriate wind speed power spectrum became a significant issue. We developed a power spectrum from 13 years of hourly average data, 1 year of 5 minute average data, and 2 particularly gusty day`s 1 second average data all collected at a height of 10 meters. While the general shape is similar to the Van der Hoven spectrum, few of his peaks were found in the Bushland spectrum. While higher average wind speeds tend to suggest higher amplitudes in the high frequency end of the spectrum, this is not always true. Also, the high frequency end of the spectrum is not accurately described by simple wind statistics such as standard deviation and turbulence intensity. 2 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

The environment of the wind-wind collision region of η Carinae

Science.gov (United States)

Panagiotou, C.; Walter, R.

2018-02-01

Context. η Carinae is a colliding wind binary hosting two of the most massive stars and featuring the strongest wind collision mechanical luminosity. The wind collision region of this system is detected in X-rays and γ-rays and offers a unique laboratory for the study of particle acceleration and wind magneto-hydrodynamics. Aim. Our main goal is to use X-ray observations of η Carinae around periastron to constrain the wind collision zone geometry and understand the reasons for its variability. Methods: We analysed 10 Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) observations, which were obtained around the 2014 periastron. The NuSTAR array monitored the source from 3 to 30 keV, which allowed us to grasp the continuum and absorption parameters with very good accuracy. We were able to identify several physical components and probe their variability. Results: The X-ray flux varied in a similar way as observed during previous periastrons and largely as expected if generated in the wind collision region. The flux detected within 10 days of periastron is lower than expected, suggesting a partial disruption of the central region of the wind collision zone. The Fe Kα line is likely broadened by the electrons heated along the complex shock fronts. The variability of its equivalent width indicates that the fluorescence region has a complex geometry and that the source obscuration varies quickly with the line of sight.

Using wind speed from a blade-mounted flow sensor for power and load assessment on modern wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Mads M.; Larsen, Torben J.; Madsen, Helge Aa

2017-01-01

In this paper an alternative method to evaluate power performance and loads on wind turbines using a blade-mounted flow sensor is investigated. The hypothesis is that the wind speed measured at the blades has a high correlation with the power and loads such that a power or load assessment can...... be performed from a few hours or days of measurements. In the present study a blade-mounted five-hole pitot tube is used as the flow sensor as an alternative to the conventional approach, where the reference wind speed is either measured at a nearby met mast or on the nacelle using lidar technology or cup...... anemometers. From the flow sensor measurements, an accurate estimate of the wind speed at the rotor plane can be obtained. This wind speed is disturbed by the presence of the wind turbine, and it is therefore different from the free-flow wind speed. However, the recorded wind speed has a high correlation...

2016 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Musial, Walter; Beiter, Philipp; Schwabe, Paul; Tian, Tian; Stehly, Tyler; Spitsen, Paul; Robertson, Amy; Gevorgian, Vahan

2017-08-08

The 2016 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and is intended to provide offshore wind policymakers, regulators, developers, researchers, engineers, financiers, and supply chain participants, with quantitative information about the offshore wind market, technology, and cost trends in the United States and worldwide. In particular, this report is intended to provide detailed information on the domestic offshore wind industry to provide context to help navigate technical and market barriers and opportunities. The scope of the report covers the status of the 111 operating offshore wind projects in the global fleet through December 31, 2016, and provides the status and analysis on a broader pipeline of 593 projects at some stage of development. In addition, this report provides a wider assessment of domestic developments and events through the second quarter of 2017 to provide a more up-to-date discussion of this dynamically evolving industry.

Long-term rise in geomagnetic activity - A close connection between quiet days and storms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vennerstrøm, Susanne

2000-01-01

Geomagnetic quiet days and magnetic storms are naturally believed to be due to very different solar wind conditions. In this study we however demonstrate that the long-term variation of geomagnetic quiet and disturbed days are surprisingly similar. By the use of daily averages of the geomagnetic.......7. The results indicate that the longterm,increase is due to an increase in the background solar wind parameters, rather than in the number of solar wind disturbances....

The first SPIE software Hack Day

Science.gov (United States)

Kendrew, S.; Deen, C.; Radziwill, N.; Crawford, S.; Gilbert, J.; Gully-Santiago, M.; Kubánek, P.

2014-07-01

We report here on the software Hack Day organised at the 2014 SPIE conference on Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation in Montréal. The first ever Hack Day to take place at an SPIE event, the aim of the day was to bring together developers to collaborate on innovative solutions to problems of their choice. Such events have proliferated in the technology community, providing opportunities to showcase, share and learn skills. In academic environments, these events are often also instrumental in building community beyond the limits of national borders, institutions and projects. We show examples of projects the participants worked on, and provide some lessons learned for future events.

Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during intense magnetic storms (1978-1979)

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, Walter D.; Gonzalez, Alicia L. C.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Smith, Edward J.; Tang, Frances

1989-01-01

The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling problem during intense magnetic storms was investigated for ten intense magnetic storm events occurring between August 16, 1978 to December 28, 1979. Particular attention was given to the dependence of the ring current energization on the ISEE-measured solar-wind parameters and the evolution of the ring current during the main phase of the intense storms. Several coupling functions were tested as energy input, and several sets of the ring current decay time-constant were searched for the best correlation with the Dst response. Results indicate that a large-scale magnetopause reconnection operates during an intense storm event and that the solar wind ram pressure plays an important role in the energization of the ring current.

Vertical and interhemispheric links in the stratosphere-mesosphere as revealed by the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS temperature data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Xu

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes.

In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days.

Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates

Vertical and interhemispheric links in the stratosphere-mesosphere as revealed by the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS temperature data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Xu

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes. In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days. Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates that the temporal

Forecasting winds over nuclear power plants statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marais, Ch.

1997-01-01

In the event of an accident at nuclear power plant, it is essential to forecast the wind velocity at the level where the efflux occurs (about 100 m). At present meteorologists refine the wind forecast from the coarse grid of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasts by developing a statistical adaptation method which corrects the NWP forecasts by using statistical comparisons between wind forecasts and observations. The Multiple Linear Regression method is used here to forecast the 100 m wind at 12 and 24 hours range for three Electricite de France (EDF) sites. It turns out that this approach gives better forecasts than the NWP model alone and is worthy of operational use. (author)

Observational analyses of dramatic developments of a severe air pollution event in the Beijing area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Li

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A rapid development of a severe air pollution event in Beijing, China, at the end of November 2015 was investigated with unprecedented observations collected during the field campaign of the Study of Urban Rainfall and Fog/Haze (SURF-15. Different from previous statistical analyses of air pollution events and their correlations with meteorological environmental conditions in the area, the role of turbulent mixing in the pollutant transfer was investigated in detail. The analyses indicate that the major pollution source associated with high particulate matter of diameter 2.5 µm (PM2.5 was from south of Beijing. Before the day of the dramatic PM2.5 increase, the nighttime downslope flow from the mountains to the west and north of Beijing reduced the surface PM2.5 concentration northwest of Beijing. The nighttime surface stable boundary layer (SBL not only kept the relatively less-polluted air near the surface, it also shielded the rough surface from the pollutant transfer by southwesterly winds above the SBL, leading to the fast transport of pollutants over the Beijing area at night. As the daytime convective turbulent mixing developed in the morning, turbulent mixing transported the elevated polluted air downward even though the weak surface wind was from northeast, leading to the dramatic increase of the surface PM2.5 concentration in the urban area. As a result of both turbulent mixing and advection processes with possible aerosol growth from secondary aerosol formation under the low-wind and high-humidity conditions, the PM2.5 concentration reached over 700 µg m−3 in the Beijing area by the end of the day. Contributions of the two transporting processes to the PM2.5 oscillations prior to this dramatic event were also analyzed. The study demonstrates the important role of large-eddy convective turbulent mixing in vertical transfer of pollutants and the role of the SBL in not only decoupling vertical transport of trace gases and

Conference on 'How to finance wind energy?'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metzler, Vincent; Weiler, Sibylle; Mous, Dirk; Hodges, Charlie; Talagrand, Romain; Soerensen, Hans Chr.; Feddersen, Hans; Dosdall, Bjoern; Jourdain, Pierre; Duval, Jocelyn

2010-01-01

The French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a conference on wind energy financing. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, more than 150 participants exchanged views on the existing financing solutions for wind energy projects in France, Germany, UK and Denmark. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - How to go on with wind energy projects financing? What evolution of the senior wind energy debt? (Vincent Metzler); 2 - Financing of wind energy projects - Legal aspects (Sibylle Weiler); 3 - Current and future trends in offshore wind financing in Germany (Dirk Mous); 4 - Financing offshore wind: a UK perspective (Charlie Hodges); 5 - Financing the UK Offshore Wind Sector - Transverse analysis of French and European Offshore Wind energy financing (Romain Talagrand); 6 - Cooperative ownership of Danish Wind Turbines (Hans Chr. Soerensen); 7 - Development and financing of a citizen's wind farm - Buergerwindpark (Hans Feddersen); 8 - Citizens' wind farms in Germany - as seen by a project developer (Bjoern Dosdall); 9 - Wind turbines in Vilaine region - A cooperative and pedagogical wind farm: a unique experience in France (Pierre Jourdain); 10 - Status of French participative models (Jocelyn Duval)

Observations and Predictability of Gap Winds in the Salmon River Canyon of Central Idaho, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This work investigates gap winds in a steep, deep river canyon prone to wildland fire. The driving mechanisms and the potential for forecasting the gap winds are investigated. The onset and strength of the gap winds are found to be correlated to the formation of an along-gap pressure gradient linked to periodic development of a thermal trough in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Numerical simulations are performed using a reanalysis dataset to investigate the ability of numerical weather prediction (NWP to simulate the observed gap wind events, including the timing and flow characteristics within the canyon. The effects of model horizontal grid spacing and terrain representation are considered. The reanalysis simulations suggest that horizontal grid spacings used in operational NWP could be sufficient for simulating the gap flow events given the regional-scale depression in which the Salmon River Canyon is situated. The strength of the events, however, is under-predicted due, at least in part, to terrain smoothing in the model. Routine NWP, however, is found to have mixed results in terms of forecasting the gap wind events, primarily due to problems in simulating the regional sea level pressure system correctly.

Tropospheric weather influenced by solar wind through atmospheric vertical coupling downward control

Science.gov (United States)

Prikryl, Paul; Bruntz, Robert; Tsukijihara, Takumi; Iwao, Koki; Muldrew, Donald B.; Rušin, Vojto; Rybanský, Milan; Turňa, Maroš; Šťastný, Pavel

2018-06-01

Occurrence of severe weather in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere (MIA) system is investigated. It is observed that significant snowfall, wind and heavy rain, particularly if caused by low pressure systems in winter, tend to follow arrivals of high-speed solar wind. Previously published statistical evidence that explosive extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere tend to occur within a few days after arrivals of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes (Prikryl et al., 2009, 2016) is corroborated for the southern hemisphere. Cases of severe weather events are examined in the context of the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere (MIA) coupling. Physical mechanism to explain these observations is proposed. The leading edge of high-speed solar wind streams is a locus of large-amplitude magneto-hydrodynamic waves that modulate Joule heating and/or Lorentz forcing of the high-latitude lower thermosphere generating medium-scale atmospheric gravity waves that propagate upward and downward through the atmosphere. Simulations of gravity wave propagation in a model atmosphere using the Transfer Function Model (Mayr et al., 1990) reveal that propagating waves originating in the lower thermosphere can excite a spectrum of gravity waves in the lower atmosphere. In spite of significantly reduced amplitudes but subject to amplification upon reflection in the upper troposphere, these gravity waves can provide a lift of unstable air to release instabilities in the troposphere and initiate convection to form cloud/precipitation bands. It is primarily the energy provided by release of latent heat that leads to intensification of storms. These results indicate that vertical coupling in the atmosphere exerts downward control from solar wind to the lower atmospheric levels influencing tropospheric weather development.

Wind power bidding in electricity markets with high wind penetration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vilim, Michael; Botterud, Audun

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We analyze the pricing systems and wind power trading in electricity markets. • We propose a model that captures the relation between market prices and wind power. • A probabilistic bidding model can increase profits for wind power producers. • Profit maximizing bidding strategies carry risks for power system operators. • We conclude that modifications of current market designs may be needed. - Abstract: Objective: The optimal day-ahead bidding strategy is studied for a wind power producer operating in an electricity market with high wind penetration. Methods: A generalized electricity market is studied with minimal assumptions about the structure of the production, bidding, or consumption of electricity. Two electricity imbalance pricing schemes are investigated, the one price and the two price scheme. A stochastic market model is created to capture the price effects of wind power production and consumption. A bidding algorithm called SCOPES (Supply Curve One Price Estimation Strategy) is developed for the one price system. A bidding algorithm called MIMICS (Multivariate Interdependence Minimizing Imbalance Cost Strategy) is developed for the two price system. Results: Both bidding strategies are shown to have advantages over the assumed “default” bidding strategy, the point forecast. Conclusion: The success of these strategies even in the case of high deviation penalties in a one price system and the implicit deviation penalties of the two price system has substantial implications for power producers and system operators in electricity markets with a high level of wind penetration. Practice implications: From an electricity market design perspective, the results indicate that further penalties or regulations may be needed to reduce system imbalance

Inflow characteristics associated with high-blade-loading events in a wind farm

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, N. D.

1993-07-01

The stochastic characteristics of the turbulent inflow have been shown to be of major significance in the accumulation of fatigue in wind turbines. Because most of the wind turbine installations in the U.S. have taken place in multi-turbine or windfarm configurations, the fatigue damage associated with the higher turbulence levels within such arrangements must be taken into account when making estimates of component service lifetimes. The simultaneous monitoring of two adjacent wind turbines over a wide range of turbulent inflow conditions has given the authors more confidence in describing the structural load distributions that can be expected in such an environment. The adjacent testing of the two turbines allowed the authors to postulate that observed similarities in the response dynamics and load distributions could be considered quasi-universal, while the dissimilarities could be considered to result from the differing design of the rotors. The format has also allowed them to begin to define appropriate statistical load distribution models for many of the critical components in which fatigue is a major driver of the design. In addition to the adjacent turbine measurements, they also briefly discuss load distributions measured on a teetered-hub turbine.

Winds in cataclysmic variable stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cordova, F.A.; Ladd, E.F.; Mason, K.O.

1984-01-01

Ultraviolet spectrophotometry of two dwarf novae, CN Ori and RX And, at various phases of their outburst cycles confirms that the far uv flux increases dramatically about 1-2 days after the optical outburst begins. At this time the uv spectral line profiles indicate the presence of a high velocity wind. The detectability of the wind depends more on the steepness of the spectrum, and thus on the flux in the extreme ultraviolet, than on the absolute value of the far uv luminosity. The uv continuum during outburst consists of (at least) two components, the most luminous of which is located behind the wind and is completely absorbed by the wind at the line frequencies. Several pieces of evidence suggest that the uv emission lines that are observed in many cataclysmic variables during quiescence have a different location in the binary than the wind, and are affected very little by the outburst

A Wind Power Plant with Thermal Energy Storage for Improving the Utilization of Wind Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chang Liu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The development of the wind energy industry is seriously restricted by grid connection issues and wind energy generation rejections introduced by the intermittent nature of wind energy sources. As a solution of these problems, a wind power system integrating with a thermal energy storage (TES system for district heating (DH is designed to make best use of the wind power in the present work. The operation and control of the system are described in detail. A one-dimensional system model of the system is developed based on a generic model library using the object-oriented language Modelica for system modeling. Validations of the main components of the TES module are conducted against experimental results and indicate that the models can be used to simulate the operation of the system. The daily performance of the integrated system is analyzed based on a seven-day operation. And the influences of system configurations on the performance of the integrated system are analyzed. The numerical results show that the integrated system can effectively improve the utilization of total wind energy under great wind power rejection.

Mild Wind Series, Minute Steak Event

Science.gov (United States)

1992-11-20

radioactive gas and debris from reaching the atmosphere, thereby complying with the test ban treaty. distance from the source point to the surface was...percent of the active data recorded on film is also important in the event of excessive radioactive release. The weighing of the experiments is arbitrary...in a water-base Polution . S41 ’ The caldera 245 feet In diameter and 17 feet deep formed at +23 minutes (figure 4.2). There was consistent

Intercalibration of HRDI and WINDII wind measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. D. Burrage

1997-09-01

Full Text Available The High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI and the Wind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII in- struments, which are both on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, measure winds by sensing the Doppler shift in atmospheric emission features. Because the two observation sets are frequently nearly coincident in space and time, each provides a very e.ective validation test of the other. Discrepancies due to geophysical di.erences should be much smaller than for comparisons with other techniques (radars, rockets, etc., and the very large sizes of the coincident data sets provide excellent statistics for the study. Issues that have been examined include relative systematic o.sets and the wind magnitudes obtained with the two systems. A significant zero wind position di.erence of ~6 m s–1 is identified for the zonal component, and it appears that this arises from an absolute perturbation in WINDII winds of –4 m s–1 and in HRDI of +2 m s–1. Altitude o.sets appear to be relatively small, and do not exceed 1 km. In addition, no evidence is found for the existence of a systematic wind speed bias between HRDI and WINDII. However, considerable day-to-day variability is found in the quality of the agreement, and RMS di.erences are surprisingly large, typically in the range of 20±30 m s–1.

Noise from wind turbines. Final report of project JOU2-CT92-0124

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Borg, N.; Andersen, B.; Mackinnon, A.; Klug, H.; Theofiloyannakos, D.

1995-04-01

Part of the planning procedure for the erection of a wind turbine or a wind farm is the prediction of the acoustic noise due to the wind turbine(s) at the nearest dwelling. The noise is normally predicted using the acoustic characteristics of the regarded wind turbine as measured on a wind turbine of equal make and model and using a general noise propagation model. Both inputs introduce uncertainties in the predicted noise level: (a) turbines of equal make and model may have different acoustic characteristics; (b) the acoustic characteristics of a turbine may change in time - from day to day (repeatability of the measurement), - during the years (ageing of the turbine); (c) the general propagation model does not take into account the effects of source elevation and wind. The project aimed at the quantification of these uncertainties and at the development of a wind turbine noise propagation model. Statistical information has been collected on the individual differences of the sound power and tonality of turbines of equal make and model by measuring 6 different types of wind turbines. Of each type 5 individual turbines have been measured (total 30 turbines). Additionally the sound power of a series of 4 wind turbines and of a series of 29 wind turbines (from earlier measurements) have been introduced into the project. Statistical information has been collected on the day to day variations of the sound power and tonality of wind turbines by measuring 3 different turbines 5 times (total 15 measurements). Statistical information has been collected on the effect of ageing on the sound power and tonality of wind turbines by the repeated measurement of 5 wind turbines that have been measured in an identical situation 3 to 7 years earlier. A method for the prediction of wind turbine noise propagation has been developed based on measurements of sound propagation from an elevated noise source and theoretical calculations. (Abstract Truncated)

Impact of active and break wind spells on the demand-supply balance in wind energy in India

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, Sumeet; Deo, M. C.; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-02-01

With an installed capacity of over 19,000 MW, the wind power currently accounts for almost 70% of the total installed capacity among the renewable energy sector in India. The extraction of wind power mainly depends on prevailing meteorology which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. The monsoon season is characterized by significant fluctuations in between periods of wet and dry spells. During the dry spells, the demand for power from agriculture and cooling equipment increases, whereas during the wet periods, such demand reduces, although, at the same time, the power supply increases because of strong westerly winds contributing to an enhanced production of wind energy. At this backdrop, we aim to assess the impact of intra-seasonal wind variability on the balance of energy supply and demand during monsoon seasons in India. Further, we explore the probable cause of wind variability by relating it to El Nino events. It is observed that the active and break phases in wind significantly impact the overall wind potential output. Although the dry spells are generally found to reduce the overall wind potential, their impact on the potential seems to have declined after the year 2000. The impact of meteorological changes on variations in wind power studied in this work should find applications typically in taking investment decisions on conventional generation facilities, like thermal, which are currently used to maintain the balance of power supply and demand.

Effect of wind speed and solar irradiation on the optimization of a PV-Wind-Battery system to supply a telecommunications station

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dufo-Lopez, Rodolfo; Bernal-Agustin, Jose L.; Lujano, Juan; Zubi, Ghassan [Zaragoza Univ. (Spain). Electrical Engineerign Dept.

2010-07-01

This paper shows the optimization of a PV-Wind hybrid system with batteries storage to supply the electrical power to a small telecommunications station. The load demanded by the station is 100 W continuously. We have considered 6 different wind speed profiles, from 2 m/s average speed (low wind speed in many places in Spain) to 8 m/s average (very high wind speed, in few places in Spain) and 3 different irradiation profiles, from the lowest average daily irradiation in Spain, about 2.5 kWh/m{sup 2}/day, to the highest one in Spain, about 5 kWh/m{sup 2}/day. Therefore we have considered 6 x 3 = 18 combinations of wind speed and irradiation profiles. For each combination of wind speed and irradiation profiles, we have optimized the PV-Wind-Battery system to supply the power demand, considering some different PV panels, wind turbines and batteries. We have also considered in the optimization non-hybrid systems (PV-Battery systems and Wind-Battery systems). The simulation of the system performance has been done hourly. The optimal system for each combination of wind speed and irradiation is the one which can supply the whole demand of the telecommunications station with the lowest Net Present Cost of the system. Simulation and optimization has been done using HOGA (Hybrid Optimization by Genetic Algorithms) software, developed by some of the authors. The results show that, with actual prices of PV panels and wind turbines, in 13 of the 18 combinations of wind speed and irradiation profiles the optimal system is a hybrid system (it includes PV panels, wind turbine and batteries). In the other 5 combinations (the ones with lowest wind speed and/or highest irradiation), the optimal system is PV-Battery, i.e., without wind turbine. We conclude that, in most of the places in Spain, the optimal system to supply the demand of a communications station (with continous demand profile) is a hybrid system (PV-Wind-Batteries) instead of a PV-Batteries system or a Wind

Mesoscale wind fluctuations over Danish waters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vincent, Claire Louise

in generated power are a particular problem for oshore wind farms because the typically high concentration of turbines within a limited geographical area means that uctuations can be correlated across large numbers of turbines. Furthermore, organised mesoscale structures that often form over water......Mesoscale wind uctuations aect the large scale integration of wind power because they undermine the day-ahead predictability of wind speed and power production, and because they can result in large uctuations in power generation that must be balanced using reserve power. Large uctuations...... that realistic hour-scale wind uctuations and open cellular convection patterns develop in WRF simulations with 2km horizontal grid spacing. The atmospheric conditions during one of the case studies are then used to initialise a simplied version of the model that has no large scale weather forcing, topography...

Influence of Westerly Wind Events stochasticity on El Niño amplitude: the case of 2014 vs. 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Puy, Martin; Vialard, Jérôme; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Guilyardi, Eric; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Voldoire, Aurore; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Madec, Gurvan; Menkes, Christophe; Mcphaden, Michael J.

2017-10-01

The weak El Niño of 2014 was preceded by anomalously high equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV) and strong Westerly Wind Events (WWEs), which typically lead to record breaking El Nino, like in 1997 and 2015. Here, we use the CNRM-CM5 coupled model to investigate the causes for the stalled El Niño in 2014 and the necessary conditions for extreme El Niños. This model is ideally suited to study this problem because it simulates all the processes thought to be critical for the onset and development of El Niño. It captures El Niño preconditioning by WWV, the WWEs characteristics and their deterministic behaviour in response to warm pool displacements. Our main finding is, that despite their deterministic control, WWEs display a sufficiently strong stochastic component to explain the distinct evolutions of El Niño in 2014 and 2015. A 100-member ensemble simulation initialized with early-spring equatorial conditions analogous to those observed in 2014 and 2015 demonstrates that early-year elevated WWV and strong WWEs preclude the occurrence of a La Niña but lead to El Niños that span the weak (with few WWEs) to extreme (with many WWEs) range. Sensitivity experiments confirm that numerous/strong WWEs shift the El Niño distribution toward larger amplitudes, with a particular emphasis on summer/fall WWEs occurrence which result in a five-fold increase of the odds for an extreme El Niño. A long simulation further demonstrates that sustained WWEs throughout the year and anomalously high WWV are necessary conditions for extreme El Niño to develop. In contrast, we find no systematic influence of easterly wind events (EWEs) on the El Niño amplitude in our model. Our results demonstrate that the weak amplitude of El Niño in 2014 can be explained by WWEs stochastic variations without invoking EWEs or remote influences from outside the tropical Pacific and therefore its peak amplitude was inherently unpredictable at long lead-time.

The Role of Southwesterly Flow in MCS Formation During a Heavy Rain Event in Taiwan on 12 - 13 June 2005

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang-Ching Chien

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a numerical study of a heavy rain event that occurred in southern Taiwan in June 2005. From 11 - 13 June 2005, a weak Mei-yu front moved southeastward from China to Taiwan, while mesoscale convective systems (MCSs were developing and moving northward over the northern South China Sea (SCS. During the first day of the event the southwesterly flow intensified when a ridge associated with the Pacific high extended northwestward from the Philippines to the southern Taiwan Strait (TS. This pressure pattern produced a large northwestward pressure gradient force that created a southeasterly wind speed increase followed by intensification of the southwesterly flow through Coriolis acceleration. An low-level jet (LLJ formed consequently and transported moisture and unstable air toward the southwestern coast of Taiwan. MCSs were triggered in the southwesterly flow because the potentially unstable air was lifted in a low-level convergence and shearing vorticity environment. They intensified, became organized, and moved northeastward overland, resulting in heavy rainfall in southern Taiwan. On the second day, low pressure formed near the southern TS because of the combined effect of a travelling short-wave trough and a pressure reduction resulting from the latent heat release by the evolving MCSs. This pressure change produced down-gradient acceleration in the northeastward direction, resulting in southwesterly flow strengthening. The local wind acceleration was smaller than that of the first day because the dominant pressure system was local scale, while that of the first day was synoptic scale.

NAWIG News: The Quarterly Newsletter of the Native American Wind Interest Group, Fall 2008, Wind & Hydropower Technologies Program (Brochure)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2008-09-01

As part of its Native American outreach, DOE?s Wind Powering America program produces a newsletter to present Native American wind information, including projects, interviews with pioneers, issues, WPA activities, and related events. This issue features an interview with Dave Danz, a tribal planner for the Grand Portage Band of Chippewa in northeastern Minnesota, and a feature on the new turbine that powers the KILI radio station on the Pine Ridge Reservation.

Use of Dual-Polarization Radar Variables to Assess Low-Level Wind Shear in Severe Thunderstorm Near-storm Environments in the Tennessee Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Crowe, Christina C.; Schultz, Christopher J.; Kumjian, Matthew; Carey, Lawerence D.; Petersen, Walter A.

2011-01-01

The upgrade of the National Weather Service (NWS) network of S ]band dual-polarization radars is currently underway, and the incorporation of polarimetric information into the real ]time forecasting process will enhance the forecaster fs ability to assess thunderstorms and their near ]storm environments. Recent research has suggested that the combination of polarimetric variables differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP) can be useful in the assessment of low level wind shear within a thunderstorm. In an environment with strong low ]level veering of the wind, ZDR values will be largest along the right inflow edge of the thunderstorm near a large gradient in horizontal reflectivity (indicative of large raindrops falling with a relative lack of smaller drops), and take the shape of an arc. Meanwhile, KDP values, which are proportional to liquid water content and indicative of a large number of smaller drops, are maximized deeper into the forward flank precipitation shield than the ZDR arc as the smaller drops are being advected further from the updraft core by the low level winds than the larger raindrops. Using findings from previous work, three severe weather events that occurred in North Alabama were examined in order to assess the utility of these signatures in determining the potential for tornadic activity. The first case is from October 26, 2010, where a large number of storms indicated tornadic potential from a standard reflectivity and velocity analysis but very few storms actually produced tornadoes. The second event is from February 28, 2011, where tornadic storms were present early on in the event, but as the day progressed, the tornado threat transitioned to a high wind threat. The third case is from April 27, 2011, where multiple rounds of tornadic storms ransacked the Tennessee Valley. This event provides a dataset including multiple modes of tornadic development, including QLCS and supercell structures. The overarching goal

Potentiality of wind power generation along the Bangladesh coast

Science.gov (United States)

Shaikh, Md. Akramuzzaman; Chowdhury, K. M. Azam; Sen, Sukanta; Islam, Mohammad Masudul

2017-12-01

Nowadays Bangladesh is facing the problem with electricity as the production is less comparing to the demand. A significant amount of electricity is consumed in urban areas especially by industries whereas in rural or coastal areas most of the people are not having it. Around 40 millions of people living in the 724 km long coast in Bangladesh. Moreover, it is surprising that throughout the year there is sufficient wind blow in coastal areas by which we can produce a massive amount of electricity. However, day by day the utilization of wind energy is increasing in the world which reduces costs of renewable energy technology, improves efficiency. It would be a good alternative solution instead of dependency on natural gas. Wind energy is mainly potential in coastal and offshore areas with strong wind regimes. Wind energy is vital for ensuring a green energy for the future. The agricultural land of Bangladesh needs the supply of water at right time for better yielding. The installation of windmills will be very much convenient for operating the water supply pumps. This research highlights the possibility of wind energy and describes the necessary steps to implement and develop wind energy sector in Bangladesh by using other's successful ideas. Supportive policies, rules, and decree can be applied to make government, non-government organization, and donor organizations work together to develop wind energy sector in Bangladesh.

Dynamical Changes Induced by the Very Large Solar Proton Events in October-November 2003

Science.gov (United States)

Jackman, Charles H.; Roble, Raymond G.

2006-01-01

The very large solar storms in October-November 2003 caused solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth and impacted the upper atmospheric polar cap regions. The Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Mode (TIME-GCM) was used to study the atmospheric dynamical influence of the solar protons that occurred in Oct-Nov 2003, the fourth largest period of SPEs measured in the past 40 years. The highly energetic solar protons caused ionization and changes in the electric field, which led to Joule heating of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This heating led to temperature increases up to 4K in the upper mesosphere. The solar proton-induced ionization, as well as dissociation processes, led to the production of odd hydrogen (HO(x)) and odd nitrogen (NO(y)). Substantial (>40%) short-lived ozone decreases followed these enhancements of HO(x) and NO(y) and led to a cooling of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. This cooling led to temperature decreases up to 2.5K. The solar proton-caused temperature changes led to maximum meridional and zonal wind variations of +/- 2 m/s on background winds up to +/- 30 m/s. The solar proton-induced wind perturbations were computed to taper off over a period of several days past the SPEs. Solar cycle 23 was accompanied by ten very large SPEs between 1998 and 2005, along with numerous smaller events. These solar proton-driven atmospheric variations need to be carefully considered when examining other polar changes.

An event- and network-level analysis of college students' maximum drinking day.

Science.gov (United States)

Meisel, Matthew K; DiBello, Angelo M; Balestrieri, Sara G; Ott, Miles Q; DiGuiseppi, Graham T; Clark, Melissa A; Barnett, Nancy P

2018-04-01

Heavy episodic drinking is common among college students and remains a serious public health issue. Previous event-level research among college students has examined behaviors and individual-level characteristics that drive consumption and related consequences but often ignores the social network of people with whom these heavy drinking episodes occur. The main aim of the current study was to investigate the network of social connections between drinkers on their heaviest drinking occasions. Sociocentric network methods were used to collect information from individuals in the first-year class (N=1342) at one university. Past-month drinkers (N=972) reported on the characteristics of their heaviest drinking occasion in the past month and indicated who else among their network connections was present during this occasion. Average max drinking day indegree, or the total number of times a participant was nominated as being present on another students' heaviest drinking occasion, was 2.50 (SD=2.05). Network autocorrelation models indicated that max drinking day indegree (e.g., popularity on heaviest drinking occassions) and peers' number of drinks on their own maximum drinking occasions were significantly associated with participant maximum number of drinks, after controlling for demographic variables, pregaming, and global network indegree (e.g., popularity in the entire first-year class). Being present at other peers' heaviest drinking occasions is associated with greater drinking quantities on one's own heaviest drinking occasion. These findings suggest the potential for interventions that target peer influences within close social networks of drinkers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wind to Hydrogen in California: Case Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antonia, O.; Saur, G.

2012-08-01

This analysis presents a case study in California for a large scale, standalone wind electrolysis site. This is a techno-economic analysis of the 40,000 kg/day renewable production of hydrogen and subsequent delivery by truck to a fueling station in the Los Angeles area. This quantity of hydrogen represents about 1% vehicle market penetration for a city such as Los Angeles (assuming 0.62 kg/day/vehicle and 0.69 vehicles/person) [8]. A wind site near the Mojave Desert was selected for proximity to the LA area where hydrogen refueling stations are already built.

Nowcasting wind power for grid operation at RWE Transportnetz from Strom GmbH (RWE TSO)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ernst, B.; Vanzetta, J.

2008-01-01

This paper presented new methods of balancing power supply and demand for electricity systems that have a large share of wind power. Wind power forecasting plays a key role in integrating a large share of wind power into an electricity system, as it links the weather dependent production with the scheduled production of conventional power plants and the forecast of the electricity demand. Wind power forecasts are essential for grid operation. Since most European electricity markets focus on the day ahead market, wind balancing is also done the day ahead. A current trend is that the intra day markets are increasing in popularity and becoming more liquid. Therefore, nowcasting will play a vital role in improving wind power related economics because shorter timeframes are much easier and better to predict. Nowcasting uses actual measurements of weather and also considers power data. Many wind power prediction tools for day ahead forecasts are available. Most models have 3 common steps, notably numerical weather prediction, wind-to-power model and regional up-scaling. A comparison between recent measurements with the output of numerical weather models showed that nowcasting provides a forecast that outperforms a pure numerical weather forecast. The first results were very promising. All 3 nowcasting solutions were found to have their own unique advantages and limitations. Ongoing research will continue to improve wind power prediction. 2 refs., 3 figs

Ionosonde and optical determinations of thermospheric neutral winds over the Antarctic Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Foppiano, A. J.; Won, Y.-I.; Torres, X. A.; Flores, P. A.; Veloso, A. Daniel; Arriagada, M. A.

2016-11-01

Ionosonde observations have been made at Great Wall station (62.22°S; 58.97°W), King George Island, and at further south Vernadsky station (65.25°S; 64.27°W), Argentine Islands, for many years. For several days at the two locations the magnetic meridional component of the thermospheric neutral wind has also been derived using three different algorithms with ionosonde data input. At King Sejong station (62.22°S; 58.78°W), close to Great Wall, almost simultaneous thermospheric winds were measured with a Fabry-Perot Interferometer (FPI) during a few days in 1997. All days correspond to intervals of low solar and geomagnetic activity levels and for different seasons. Here, the geographic meridional FPI winds measured at the geographic south pointing location are compared with the magnetic meridional component of the wind derived from ionosonde observations at Vernadsky. Also, the magnetic meridian FPI winds measured using all four cardinal pointing locations are compared with the magnetic meridional component of the wind derived from ionosonde observations at Great Wall. The patterns of the diurnal variations of the magnetic meridional component of ionosonde derived winds using the three different techniques are similar in most cases. However, the amplitudes of these variations and some individual values can differ by more than 150 m/s depending on season, particularly during daytime. Comparison of the autumn FPI with the ionosonde winds for Vernadsky and Great Wall shows that they coincide within observation uncertainties. Results for other seasons are not so good. Some of the discrepancies are discussed in relation to the hour-to-hour variability of ionosonde based winds and the latitudinal gradients of ionospheric characteristics. Other discrepancies need to be further explained. Recently reported FPI mean winds for tens of days in different seasons for Palmer (64.77°S; 64.05°W), Anvers Island, are found to be particularly close to ionosonde derived mean

Extreme inflow events and synoptic forcing in Sydney catchments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepler, Acacia S; Rakich, Clinton S

2010-01-01

The Sydney catchment region encompasses over 16,000km 2 , supplying water to over 4 million inhabitants. However, few studies have investigated the synoptic and climatic influences on inflow in this region, which are crucial for understanding the vulnerability of water supply in a changing climate. This study identifies extremely high and low inflow events between 1960 and 2008 based on catchment averages. The focus of the study is an analysis of the synoptic cause/s of each extreme inflow event. The events are evaluated to identify any trends and also to determine the concurrent significant climatic influences on rainfall over the catchments. Relationships between catchment inflow, rainfall, tropical SST indices, and other influencing factors such as observed wind and temperatures are investigated. Our results show that East Coast Lows and anomalously easterly flow are the drivers of high inflow events, with low inflow events dominated by westerly wind patterns and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Hourly temporal distribution of wind

Science.gov (United States)

Deligiannis, Ilias; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2016-04-01

The wind process is essential for hydrometeorology and additionally, is one of the basic renewable energy resources. Most stochastic forecast models are limited up to daily scales disregarding the hourly scale which is significant for renewable energy management. Here, we analyze hourly wind timeseries giving emphasis on the temporal distribution of wind within the day. We finally present a periodic model based on statistical as well as hydrometeorological reasoning that shows good agreement with data. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Hari Prasad

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

Severe Weather Events over Southeastern Brazil during the 2016 Dry Season

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda Rehbein

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Southeastern Brazil is the most populated and economically developed region of this country. Its climate consists of two distinct seasons: the dry season, extending from April to September, the precipitation is significantly reduced in comparison to that of the wet season, which extends from October to March. However, during nine days of the 2016 dry season, successive convective systems were associated with atypical precipitation events, tornadoes and at least one microburst over the southern part of this region. These events led to flooding, damages to buildings, shortages of electricity and water in several places, many injuries, and two documented deaths. The present study investigates the synoptic and dynamical features related to these anomalous events. The convective systems were embedded in an unstable environment with intense low-level jet flow and strong wind shear and were supported by a sequence of extratropical cyclones occurring over the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. These features were intensified by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO in its phase 8 and by intense negative values of the Pacific South America (PSA 2 mode.

On the market impact of wind energy forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2010-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of how day-ahead electricity spot prices are affected by day-ahead wind power forecasts. Demonstration of this relationship is given as a test case for the Western Danish price area of the Nord Pool's Elspot market. Impact on the average price behaviour is investigated as well as that on the distributional properties of the price. By using a non-parametric regression model to assess the effects of wind power forecasts on the average behaviour, the non-linearities and time variations in the relationship are captured well and the effects are shown to be quite substantial. Furthermore, by evaluating the distributional properties of the spot prices under different scenarios, the impact of the wind power forecasts on the price distribution is proved to be considerable. The conditional price distribution is moreover shown to be non-Gaussian. This implies that forecasting models for electricity spot prices for which parameters are estimated by a least squares techniques will not have Gaussian residuals. Hence the widespread assumption of Gaussian residuals from electricity spot price models is shown to be inadequate for these model types. The revealed effects are likely to be observable and qualitatively similar in other day-ahead electricity markets significantly penetrated by wind power. (author)

Assessing noise from wind farm developments in Ireland: A consideration of critical wind speeds and turbine choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, E.A.; Pilla, F.; Mahon, J.

2012-01-01

Wind farms are becoming increasingly popular in Ireland in an effort to increase the production of green energy within the state. As with any infrastructural development, wind farms must consider potential environmental impacts prior to construction. One particular issue that must be examined is the emission of noise from the development. In Ireland wind farm developments must adhere to planning conditions that usually outline permissible noise levels for both the construction and operational phases of the development. The critical wind speed is often cited as the wind speed at which these limits apply. This paper examines how the critical wind speed is determined and investigates its relationship with background noise levels and turbine choice. The study consisted of ten one-week monitoring periods during which meteorological conditions and background noise levels were simultaneously recorded. It was found that the critical wind speed is non-transferable, i.e. it depends on both the turbine choice and background noise environment and is specific to that particular turbine/site combination. Furthermore the critical wind speed during the night-time is often different to the overall critical wind speed suggesting that future noise studies should consider a range of critical wind speeds, particularly for night-time noise assessments. - Highlights: ► This paper considers the use of the critical wind speed when assessing noise impacts from wind farms. ► It was found that the critical wind speed could vary depending on the time of the day. ► The critical wind speed was found to be a non-transferable value. ► Noise assessments for wind farms should be developed over a range of critical wind speeds.

Wind turbine reliability : a database and analysis approach.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Linsday, James (ARES Corporation); Briand, Daniel; Hill, Roger Ray; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.; Benjamin, Allan S. (ARES Corporation)

2008-02-01

The US wind Industry has experienced remarkable growth since the turn of the century. At the same time, the physical size and electrical generation capabilities of wind turbines has also experienced remarkable growth. As the market continues to expand, and as wind generation continues to gain a significant share of the generation portfolio, the reliability of wind turbine technology becomes increasingly important. This report addresses how operations and maintenance costs are related to unreliability - that is the failures experienced by systems and components. Reliability tools are demonstrated, data needed to understand and catalog failure events is described, and practical wind turbine reliability models are illustrated, including preliminary results. This report also presents a continuing process of how to proceed with controlling industry requirements, needs, and expectations related to Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety. A simply stated goal of this process is to better understand and to improve the operable reliability of wind turbine installations.

Predicting Ionization Rates from SEP and Solar Wind Proton Precipitation into the Martian Atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Jolitz, R.; Dong, C.; Lee, C. O.; Curry, S.; Lillis, R. J.; Brain, D.; Halekas, J. S.; Larson, D. E.; Bougher, S. W.; Jakosky, B. M.

2017-12-01

Precipitating energetic particles ionize planetary atmospheres and increase total electron content. At Mars, the solar wind and solar energetic particles (SEPs) can precipitate directly into the atmosphere because solar wind protons can charge exchange to become neutrals and pass through the magnetosheath, while SEPs are sufficiently energetic to cross the magnetosheath unchanged. In this study we will present predicted ionization rates and resulting electron densities produced by solar wind and SEP proton ionization during nominal solar activity and a CME shock front impact event on May 16 2016. We will use the Atmospheric Scattering of Protons and Energetic Neutrals (ASPEN) model to compare ionization by SEP and solar wind protons currently measured by the SWIA (Solar Wind Ion Analyzer) and SEP instruments aboard the MAVEN spacecraft. Results will help to quantify how the ionosphere responds to extreme solar events during solar minimum.

Intercalibration of HRDI and WINDII wind measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. D. Burrage

Full Text Available The High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI and the Wind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII in- struments, which are both on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, measure winds by sensing the Doppler shift in atmospheric emission features. Because the two observation sets are frequently nearly coincident in space and time, each provides a very e.ective validation test of the other. Discrepancies due to geophysical di.erences should be much smaller than for comparisons with other techniques (radars, rockets, etc., and the very large sizes of the coincident data sets provide excellent statistics for the study. Issues that have been examined include relative systematic o.sets and the wind magnitudes obtained with the two systems. A significant zero wind position di.erence of ~6 m s^–1 is identified for the zonal component, and it appears that this arises from an absolute perturbation in WINDII winds of –4 m s^–1 and in HRDI of +2 m s^–1. Altitude o.sets appear to be relatively small, and do not exceed 1 km. In addition, no evidence is found for the existence of a systematic wind speed bias between HRDI and WINDII. However, considerable day-to-day variability is found in the quality of the agreement, and RMS di.erences are surprisingly large, typically in the range of 20±30 m s^–1.

Jupiter Night and Day

Science.gov (United States)

2001-01-01

Day and night side narrow angle images taken on January 1, 2001 illustrating storms visible on the day side which are the sources of visible lightning when viewed on the night side. The images have been enhanced in contrast. Note the two day-side occurrences of high clouds, in the upper and lower parts of the image, are coincident with lightning storms seen on the darkside. The storms occur at 34.5 degrees and 23.5 degrees North latitude, within one degree of the latitudes at which similar lightning features were detected by the Galileo spacecraft. The images were taken at different times. The storms' longitudinal separation changes from one image to the next because the winds carrying them blow at different speeds at the two latitudes.

Integrated Bidding and Operating Strategies for Wind-Storage Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ding, Huajie; Pinson, Pierre; Hu, Zechun

2016-01-01

Due to their flexible charging and discharging capabilities, energy storage systems (ESS) are considered a promising complement to wind farms (WFs) participating in electricity markets. This paper presents integrated day-ahead bidding and real-time operation strategies for a wind-storage system...

Wind speed estimation using multilayer perceptron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velo, Ramón; López, Paz; Maseda, Francisco

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We present a method for determining the average wind speed using neural networks. • We use data from that site in the short term and data from other nearby stations. • The inputs used in the ANN were wind speed and direction data from a station. • The method allows knowing the wind speed without topographical data. - Abstract: Wind speed knowledge is prerequisite in the siting of wind turbines. In consequence the wind energy use requires meticulous and specified knowledge of the wind characteristics at a location. This paper presents a method for determining the annual average wind speed at a complex terrain site by using neural networks, when only short term data are available for that site. This information is useful for preliminary calculations of the wind resource at a remote area having only a short time period of wind measurements measurement in a site. Artificial neural networks are useful for implementing non-linear process variables over time, and therefore are a useful tool for estimating the wind speed. The neural network used is multilayer perceptron with three layers and the supervised learning algorithm used is backpropagation. The inputs used in the neural network were wind speed and direction data from a single station, and the training patterns used correspond to sixty days data. The results obtained by simulating the annual average wind speed at the selected site based on data from nearby stations with correlation coefficients above 0.5 were satisfactory, compared with actual values. Reliable estimations were obtained, with errors below 6%

Wind distribution and capacity factor estimation for wind turbines in the coastal region of South Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayodele, T.R.; Jimoh, A.A.; Munda, J.L.; Agee, J.T.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We evaluate capacity factor of some commercially available wind turbines. ► Wind speed in the sites studied can best be modelled using Weibull distribution. ► Site WM05 has the highest wind power potential while site WM02 has the lowest. ► More wind power can be harnessed during the day period compared to the night. ► Turbine K seems to be the best turbine for the coastal region of South Africa. - Abstract: The operating curve parameters of a wind turbine should match the local wind regime optimally to ensure maximum exploitation of available energy in a mass of moving air. This paper provides estimates of the capacity factor of 20 commercially available wind turbines, based on the local wind characteristics of ten different sites located in the Western Cape region of South Africa. Ten-min average time series wind-speed data for a period of 1 year are used for the study. First, the wind distribution that best models the local wind regime of the sites is determined. This is based on root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) which are used to test goodness of fit. First, annual, seasonal, diurnal and peak period-capacity factor are estimated analytically. Then, the influence of turbine power curve parameters on the capacity factor is investigated. Some of the key results show that the wind distribution of the entire site can best be modelled statistically using the Weibull distribution. Site WM05 (Napier) presents the highest capacity factor for all the turbines. This indicates that this site has the highest wind power potential of all the available sites. Site WM02 (Calvinia) has the lowest capacity factor i.e. lowest wind power potential. This paper can assist in the planning and development of large-scale wind power-generating sites in South Africa.

Conference on raw materials and jobs cost variation - Impact on wind turbine manufacturers and operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chabot, Bernard; Falk, Thorsten; Braeuninger, Michael; Rehfeldt, Knud; Brand, Ruth; Buhr, Ingo de; Jenne, Markus

2007-01-01

In the framework of the 2007 Husum Wind exhibition, the French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a side event on In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, participants exchanged views on raw materials and jobs cost variations in the wind power industry in both countries. Its aim was to compare and analyse the French and German respective support systems to renewable energy sources. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Protecting wind energy tariffs against inflation effects: analysis and suggestions from the French experience (Bernard Chabot); 2 - Wind energy in Germany - Tariff structure in the EEG renewable energy law (Thorsten Falk); 3 - Wind energy competitiveness (Michael Braeuninge, Knud Rehfeldt); 4 - Influence of raw materials price rise on the production costs of ENERCON wind turbines maker (Ruth Brand); 5 - Presentation of the overall costs of an offshore wind energy project (Ingo de Buhr); 6 - Comparison between French and German tariffs profitability using a model wind farm: presentation of the pros and cons of both systems (Markus Jenne)

The effects of forecast errors on the merchandising of wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roon, Serafin von

2012-01-01

A permanent balance between consumption and generation is essential for a stable supply of electricity. In order to ensure this balance, all relevant load data have to be announced for the following day. Consequently, a day-ahead forecast of the wind power generation is required, which also forms the basis for the sale of the wind power at the wholesale market. The main subject of the study is the short-term power supply, which compensates errors in wind power forecasting for balancing the wind power forecast errors at short notice. These forecast errors effects the revenues and the expenses by selling and buying power in the day-ahead, intraday and balance energy market. These price effects resulting from the forecast errors are derived from an empirical analysis. In a scenario for the year 2020 the potential of conventional power plants to supply power at short notice is evaluated from a technical and economic point of view by a time series analysis and a unit commitment simulation.

Incidência de eventos adversos cirúrgicos em hospital dia | Incidence of surgical adverse events at a day hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eliana Auxiliadora M. Costa

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Os eventos adversos cirúrgicos têm especial relevância pelo impacto sobre a saúde dos pacientes e por serem preveníveis. A despeito do crescente número de publicações nessa área, persistem lacunas de conhecimento acerca desses eventos na modalidade da assistência cirúrgica ambulatorial. Esta pesquisa objetivou estimar a incidência de eventos adversos cirúrgicos em hospital dia. Trata-se de um estudo de coorte retrospectiva de 55.879 pacientes operados num hospital dia entre os anos de 2010 e 2014. A incidência de eventos adversos cirúrgicos foi de 0,51%. Destes eventos, 0,31% foram de Infecções do sítio cirúrgico e 0,19% de outros eventos adversos cirúrgicos distribuídos proporcionalmente em: deiscência da ferida cirúrgica (12,90%, hemorragia (5,20%, flebite (5,20% e trombose dos membros inferiores (4,90%. Os resultados deste estudo ratificam que a cirurgia realizada em regime ambulatorial de hospital dia está relacionada a menores incidências de eventos adversos cirúrgicos, entretanto, é indispensável um sistema de seguimento dos pacientes após alta, no sentido de evitar a subnotificação e sub-registros dos dados, que, na ausência desse, pode ocultar dados e identificar taxas irreais. ============================================== Surgical adverse events are especially relevant because of their impact on patients’ health and because they are preventable events. Despite the growing number of publications in this area, there are still gaps in knowledge about these events in the ambulatory surgical care modality. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of surgical adverse events at a day hospital. It is a retrospective cohort study of 55,879 patients operated in a hospital between 2010 and 2014. The incidence of surgical adverse events was 0.51%. Of these, 0.31% were surgical site infections and 0.19% of other surgical adverse events proportionally distributed in surgical wound dehiscence (12.90%, hemorrhage (5

Wind offering in energy and reserve markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soares, Tiago; Pinson, Pierre; Morais, Hugo

2016-01-01

The increasing penetration of wind generation in power systems to fulfil the ambitious European targets will make wind power producers to play an even more important role in the future power system. Wind power producers are being incentivized to participate in reserve markets to increase...... their revenue, since currently wind turbine/farm technologies allow them to provide ancillary services. Thus, wind power producers are to develop offering strategies for participation in both energy and reserve markets, accounting for market rules, while ensuring optimal revenue. We consider a proportional...... offering strategy to optimally decide upon participation in both markets by maximizing expected revenue from day-ahead decisions while accounting for estimated regulation costs for failing to provide the services. An evaluation of considering the same proportional splitting of energy and reserve in both...

Modulation of cosmic rays on geomagnetically most quiet days

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwal Mishra, Rekha; Agarwal Mishra, Rekha; Mishra, Rajesh Kumar

The aim of this work is to study the first three harmonics of cosmic ray intensity on geomagnetically quiet days over the period 1980-1990 for Deep River and Tokyo neutron monitoring stations. The amplitude of first harmonic remains high for Deep River having low cutoff rigidity as compared to Tokyo neutron monitor having high cutoff rigidity on quiet days.. The diurnal time of maximum significantly shifts to an earlier time as compared to the corotational/1800 Hr direction at both the stations having different cutoff rigidities. The time of maximum for first harmonic significantly shifts towards later hours and for second harmonic it shifts towards earlier hours at low cutoff rigidity station i.e. Deep River as compared to the high cut off rigidity station i.e. Tokyo on quiet days. The amplitude of semi/tri-diurnal anisotropy have a good positive correlation with solar wind velocity, while the others (i.e. amplitude and phase) have no significant correlation on quiet days for Deep River and Tokyo having different cutoff rigidity during 1980-1990. The solar wind velocity significantly remains in the range 350 to 425 km/s i.e. being nearly average on quiet days. The amplitude and direction of the anisotropy on quiet days are weakly dependent on high-speed solar wind streams for two neutron monitoring station of low and high cutoff rigidity threshold. The semi-diurnal amplitude has a significant anti-correlation, whereas the amplitude of third harmonic and direction of first harmonic has a good anti-correlation with IMF Bz and the product V x Bz on quiet days at Deep River station. However, the direction of first harmonic has a significant anti-correlation and the direction of second harmonic has a good anti-correlation with IMF Bz and the product V x Bz on quiet days at Tokyo station.

NAWIG News: The Quarterly Newsletter of the Native American Wind Interest Group, Summer 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2007-06-01

DOE's Wind Powering America program has initiated a quarterly NAWIG newsletter to present Native American wind information, including projects, interviews with pioneers, issues, WPA activities, and related events.

Coastal upwelling by wind-driven forcing in Jervis Bay, New South Wales: A numerical study for 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Youn-Jong; Jalón-Rojas, Isabel; Wang, Xiao Hua; Jiang, Donghui

2018-06-01

The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) was used to investigate an upwelling event in Jervis Bay, New South Wales (SE Australia), with varying wind directions and strengths. The POM was adopted with a downscaling approach for the regional ocean model one-way nested to a global ocean model. The upwelling event was detected from the observed wind data and satellite sea surface temperature images. The validated model reproduced the upwelling event showing the input of bottom cold water driven by wind to the bay, its subsequent deflection to the south, and its outcropping to the surface along the west and south coasts. Nevertheless, the behavior of the bottom water that intruded into the bay varied with different wind directions and strengths. Upwelling-favorable wind directions for flushing efficiency within the bay were ranked in the following order: N (0°; northerly) > NNE (30°; northeasterly) > NW (315°; northwesterly) > NE (45°; northeasterly) > ENE (60°; northeasterly). Increasing wind strengths also enhance cold water penetration and water exchange. It was determined that wind-driven downwelling within the bay, which occurred with NNE, NE and ENE winds, played a key role in blocking the intrusion of the cold water upwelled through the bay entrance. A northerly wind stress higher than 0.3 N m-2 was required for the cold water to reach the northern innermost bay.

Pamphlet day

OpenAIRE

Eastwood, Phil; Dunne, Chris; Fowler, Stephen

2017-01-01

Pamphlet Day: A Political Protest Pamphlet and Zine Event focused around the occupation of Loughborough Public Library, Granby Street, Loughborough, LE11 3DZ, UK. ABSTRACT “Throughout the 20th Century artists have engaged provocatively with text, images and performance, publishing writings, pamphlets, and manifestos that challenge the status quo.” (1) Loughborough Echo, May 2017 https://www.loughboroughecho.net/whats-on/arts-culture-news/pamphlet-art-feature-events-13038989 A s...

Average thermospheric wind patterns over the polar regions, as observed by CHAMP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Lühr

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Measurements of the CHAMP accelerometer are utilized to investigate the average thermospheric wind distribution in the polar regions at altitudes around 400 km. This study puts special emphasis on the seasonal differences in the wind patterns. For this purpose 131 days centered on the June solstice of 2003 are considered. Within that period CHAMP's orbit is precessing once through all local times. The cross-track wind estimates of all 2030 passes are used to construct mean wind vectors for 918 equal-area cells. These bin averages are presented in corrected geomagnetic coordinates. Both hemispheres are considered simultaneously providing summer and winter responses for the same prevailing geophysical conditions. The period under study is characterized by high magnetic activity (Kp=4− but moderate solar flux level (F10.7=124. Our analysis reveals clear wind features in the summer (Northern Hemisphere. Over the polar cap there is a fast day-to-night flow with mean speeds surpassing 600 m/s in the dawn sector. At auroral latitudes we find strong westward zonal winds on the dawn side. On the dusk side, however, an anti-cyclonic vortex is forming. The dawn/dusk asymmetry is attributed to the combined action of Coriolis and centrifugal forces. Along the auroral oval the sunward streaming plasma causes a stagnation of the day-to-night wind. This effect is particularly clear on the dusk side. On the dawn side it is evident only from midnight to 06:00 MLT. The winter (Southern Hemisphere reveals similar wind features, but they are less well ordered. The mean day-to-night wind over the polar cap is weaker by about 35%. Otherwise, the seasonal differences are mainly confined to the dayside (06:00–18:00 MLT. In addition, the larger offset between geographic and geomagnetic pole in the south also causes hemispheric differences of the thermospheric wind distribution.

Average thermospheric wind patterns over the polar regions, as observed by CHAMP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Lühr

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Measurements of the CHAMP accelerometer are utilized to investigate the average thermospheric wind distribution in the polar regions at altitudes around 400 km. This study puts special emphasis on the seasonal differences in the wind patterns. For this purpose 131 days centered on the June solstice of 2003 are considered. Within that period CHAMP's orbit is precessing once through all local times. The cross-track wind estimates of all 2030 passes are used to construct mean wind vectors for 918 equal-area cells. These bin averages are presented in corrected geomagnetic coordinates. Both hemispheres are considered simultaneously providing summer and winter responses for the same prevailing geophysical conditions. The period under study is characterized by high magnetic activity (K_p=4− but moderate solar flux level (F10.7=124. Our analysis reveals clear wind features in the summer (Northern Hemisphere. Over the polar cap there is a fast day-to-night flow with mean speeds surpassing 600 m/s in the dawn sector. At auroral latitudes we find strong westward zonal winds on the dawn side. On the dusk side, however, an anti-cyclonic vortex is forming. The dawn/dusk asymmetry is attributed to the combined action of Coriolis and centrifugal forces. Along the auroral oval the sunward streaming plasma causes a stagnation of the day-to-night wind. This effect is particularly clear on the dusk side. On the dawn side it is evident only from midnight to 06:00 MLT. The winter (Southern Hemisphere reveals similar wind features, but they are less well ordered. The mean day-to-night wind over the polar cap is weaker by about 35%. Otherwise, the seasonal differences are mainly confined to the dayside (06:00–18:00 MLT. In addition, the larger offset between geographic and geomagnetic pole in the south also causes hemispheric differences of the thermospheric wind distribution.

World Town Planning Day and GIS Day to be celebrated

OpenAIRE

Trulove, Susan

2003-01-01

On Wednesday, Nov. 19, Montgomery County will unveil the county's new comprehensive plan during a joint celebration of the fifth anniversary of Geographic Information Systems Day and the 30th anniversary of World Town Planning Day. The event will feature programs by the Virginia Tech Center for Geospatial Information Technology (CGIT) and Virginia's Geospatial Extension Program (GEP).

The typhoon effect on the aerodynamic performance of a floating offshore wind turbine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhe Ma

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The wind energy resource is considerably rich in the deep water of China South Sea, where wind farms have to face the challenge of extreme typhoon events. In this work, the typhoon effect on the aerodynamic performance of the 5MW OC3-Hywind floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT system has been investigated, based on the Aero-Hydro-Servo-Elastic FAST code. First, considering the full field observation data of typhoon “Damrey” is a long duration process with significant turbulence and high wind speed, so one 3-h representative truncated typhoon wind speed time history has been selected. Second, the effects of both the (variable-speed and collective-pitch control system of NREL 5 MW wind turbine and the motion of the floating platform on the blade aerodynamic performance of the FOWT system during the representative typhoon time history has been investigated, based on blade element momentum (BEM theory (coupled with potential theory for the calculation of the hydrodynamic loads of the Spar platform. Finally, the effects of different wind turbine control strategies, control parameter (KP–KI combinations, wave heights and parked modes on the rotor aerodynamic responses of the FOWT system have been clarified. The extreme typhoon event can result in considerably large extreme responses of the rotor thrust and the generated power due to the possible blade pitch angle error phenomenon. One active-parked strategy has been proposed for reducing the maximum aerodynamic responses of the FOWT system during extreme typhoon events.

Calculating the Motion and Direction of Flux Transfer Events with Cluster

Science.gov (United States)

Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Sibeck, D. G.

2012-01-01

For many years now, the interactions of the solar wind plasma with the Earth's magnetosphere has been one of the most important problems for Space Physics. It is very important that we understand these processes because the high-energy particles and also the solar wind energy that cross the magneto sphere could be responsible for serious damage to our technological systems. The solar wind is inherently a dynamic medium, and the particles interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere can be steady or unsteady. Unsteady interaction include transient processes like bursty magnetic reconnection. Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) are magnetopause signatures that usually occur during transient times of reconnection. They exhibit bipolar signatures in the normal component of the magnetic field. We use multi-point timing analysis to determine the orientation and motion of ux transfer events (FTEs) detected by the four Cluster spacecraft on the high-latitude dayside and flank magnetopause during 2002 and 2003. During these years, the distances between the Cluster spacecraft were greater than 1000 km, providing the tetrahedral configuration needed to select events and determine velocities. Each velocity and location will be examined in detail and compared to the velocities and locations determined by the predictions of the component and antiparallel reconnection models for event formation, orientation, motion, and acceleration for a wide range of spacecraft locations and solar wind conditions.

Southern Ocean carbon-wind stress feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Bronselaer, Ben; Zanna, Laure; Munday, David R.; Lowe, Jason

2018-02-01

The Southern Ocean is the largest sink of anthropogenic carbon in the present-day climate. Here, Southern Ocean pCO2 and its dependence on wind forcing are investigated using an equilibrium mixed layer carbon budget. This budget is used to derive an expression for Southern Ocean pCO2 sensitivity to wind stress. Southern Ocean pCO2 is found to vary as the square root of area-mean wind stress, arising from the dominance of vertical mixing over other processes such as lateral Ekman transport. The expression for pCO2 is validated using idealised coarse-resolution ocean numerical experiments. Additionally, we show that increased (decreased) stratification through surface warming reduces (increases) the sensitivity of the Southern Ocean pCO2 to wind stress. The scaling is then used to estimate the wind-stress induced changes of atmospheric pCO_2 in CMIP5 models using only a handful of parameters. The scaling is further used to model the anthropogenic carbon sink, showing a long-term reversal of the Southern Ocean sink for large wind stress strength.

Long-period polar rain variations, solar wind and hemispherically symmetric polar rain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makita, K.; Meng, C.

1987-01-01

On the basic of electron data obtained by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F2 satellite the long-period variations of the polar rain flux are examined for four consecutive solar rotations. It is clearly demonstrated that the asymmetric enhancement of the polar rain flux is strongly controlled by the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). However, the orbit-to-orbit and day-to-day variations of the polar rain flux are detected even during a very stable sector period, and the polar rain flux does not have any clear relationship to the magnitude of the IMF B/sub x/ or B/sub y/. Thus the polarity of B/sub x/ controls only the accessibility of a polar region. It is also noticed that the intensity of polar rain fluxes does not show any relationship to the density of the solar wind, suggesting that the origin of the polar rain electrons is different from the commonly observed part of the solar wind electron distribution function. In addition to the asymmetric polar rain distribution, increasing polar rain fluxes of similar high intensity are sometimes detected over both polar caps. An examination of more than 1 year's data from the DMSP F2 and F4 satellites shows that simultaneous intense uniform precipitations (>10 7 electrons/cm 2 s sr) over both polar caps are not coincidental; it also shows that the spectra are similar. The occurrence of hemispherically symmetric events is not common. They generally are observed after an IMF sector transition period, during unstable periods in the sector structure, and while the solar wind density is high. copyright American Geophysical Union 1987

Conference on wind energy development and biodiversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gossement, Arnaud; Prevors, Lionel; Nagel, Paul-Bastian; Otto, Iris; Gourat, Fabrice; Sornin-Petit, Nicolas; Kelm, Volker; Beucher, Yannick; Rosenthal, Sonja; Strobl, Reinhard; Kozlowski, Sonia; Herrholz, Thomas; Hannemann, Thomas; Lange, Helmut; Behr, Oliver; Hochradel, Klaus; Mages, Juergen; Nagy, Martina; Korner-Nievergelt, Fraenzi; Niermann, Ivo; Simon, Ralph; Stiller, Florian; Weber, Natalie; Brinkmann, Robert

2013-01-01

The French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a conference on wind energy development and biodiversity. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, about 90 participants exchanged views on the existing regulatory systems for nature protection in a wind energy context in both countries. In particular, birds fauna and chiropters protection were in the center of the debates. The question of wind energy development in a forest environment was addressed as well. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - The development of onshore wind farms and the French environmental Code (Arnaud Gossement); 2 - Wind energy development priority - recent advances in environmental regulation (Lionel Prevors); 3 - environmental legislation and wind power deployment in Germany: An overview (Paul-Bastian Nagel); 4 - Avifauna and wind energy plants - To bring the expansion of wind energy in line with environmental issues (Iris Otto) 5 - environmental impact study in France and Germany: what challenges and what bird fauna specificities? (Fabrice Gourat); 6 - How to take into account the chiropters' aspect in authorization procedures? Regional scale experience feedback: the Champagne-Ardenne case (Nicolas Sornin-Petit); 7 - France and Germany - a comparison of bat monitoring experience (Volker Kelm, Yannick Beucher); 8 - Bat-friendly operation algorithms: reducing bat fatalities at wind turbines in central Europe (Oliver Behr); 9 - Wind energy use in forests? specifics from an environmental planning perspective (Sonja Rosenthal); 10 - expansion of wind energy in the Bavarian State Forest (Reinhard Strobl); 11 - Environmental impact assessment and environmental follow-up study for the forest wind farms: experience feedback (Sonia Kozlowski); 12 - German aviation light regulations - German aviation light regulations. Case study: eno 92 at wind farm Schoenerlinde (Thomas Herrholz); 13 - Welcome to

Apportionment of the sources of high fine particulate matter concentration events in a developing aerotropolis in Taoyuan, Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chuang, Ming-Tung; Chen, Yu-Chieh; Lee, Chung-Te; Cheng, Chung-Hao; Tsai, Yu-Jen; Chang, Shih-Yu; Su, Zhen-Sen

2016-01-01

To investigate the characteristics and contributions of the sources of fine particulate matter with a size of up to 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) during the period when pollution events could easily occur in Taoyuan aerotropolis, Taiwan, this study conducted sampling at three-day intervals from September 2014 to January 2015. Based on the mass concentration of PM 2.5 , the sampling days were classified into high PM 2.5 concentration event days (PM 2.5 >35 μg m −3 ) and non-event days (PM 2.5 <35 μg m −3 ). In addition, the chemical species, including water-soluble inorganic ions, carbonaceous components, and metal elements, were analyzed. The sources of pollution and their contributions were estimated using the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Furthermore, the effect of the weather type on the measurement results was also explored based on wind field conditions. The mass fractions of Cl − and NO 3 − increased when a high PM 2.5 concentration event occurred, and they were also higher under local emitted conditions than under long range transported conditions, indicating that secondary nitrate aerosols were the major increasing local species that caused high PM 2.5 concentration events. Seven sources of pollution could be distinguished using the PMF model on the basis of the characteristics of the species. Industrial emissions, coal combustion/urban waste incineration, and local emissions from diesel/gasoline vehicles were the main sources that contributed to pollution on high PM 2.5 concentration event days. In order to reduction of high PM 2.5 concentration events, the control of diesel and gasoline vehicle emission is important and should be given priority. - Highlights: • The mass fractions of NH 4 + , K + , Cl − and NO 3 − increased during PM 2.5 event days. • Reduction of coal combustion/urban waste incineration emissions should be prioritized. • The control of vehicle emission is important in the locally emitted periods. • Secondary

NASA's Newest SeaWinds Instrument Breezes Into Operation

Science.gov (United States)

2003-01-01

satellites will enable detailed studies of ocean circulation, air-sea interaction and climate variation simply not possible until now.'The released image, obtained from data collected January 28-29, depicts Earth's continents in green, polar glacial ice-covered regions in blue-red and sea ice in gray. Color and intensity changes over ice and land are related to ice melting, variations in land surface roughness and vegetation cover. Ocean surface wind speeds, measured during a 12-hour period on January 28, are shown by colors, with blues corresponding to low wind speeds and reds to wind speeds up to 15 meters per second (30 knots). Black arrows denote wind direction. White gaps over the oceans represent unmeasured areas between SeaWinds swaths (the instrument measures winds over about 90 percent of the oceans each day).SeaWinds transmits high-frequency microwave pulses to Earth's land masses, ice cover and ocean surface and measures the strength of the radar pulses that bounce back to the instrument. It takes millions of radar measurements covering about 93 percent of Earth's surface every day, operating under all weather conditions, day and night. Over the oceans, SeaWinds senses ripples caused by the winds, from which scientists can compute wind speed and direction. These ocean surface winds drive Earth's oceans and control the exchange of heat, moisture and gases between the atmosphere and the sea.Launched December 14, 2002, from Japan, the instrument was first activated on January 10 and transitioned to its normal science mode on January 28. A four-day dedicated checkout period was completed on January 31. A six-month calibration/validation phase will begin in April, with regular science operations scheduled to begin this October.SeaWinds on Midori 2 is managed for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, D.C., by JPL, which developed the instrument and performs instrument operations and science data processing, archiving and distribution. NASA also provides U

High Temporal Resolution Tropospheric Wind Profile Observations at NASA Kennedy Space Center During Hurricane Irma

Science.gov (United States)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.; Huddleston, Lisa; Brauer, Thomas; Wilfong, Timothy

2018-01-01

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) operates a 48-MHz Tropospheric/Stratospheric Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (TDRWP) on a continual basis generating wind profiles between 2-19 km in the support of space launch vehicle operations. A benefit of the continual operability of the system is the ability to provide unique observations of severe weather events such as hurricanes. Over the past two Atlantic Hurricane seasons the TDRWP has made high temporal resolution wind profile observations of Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Hurricane Irma was responsible for power outages to approximately 2/3 of Florida's population during its movement over the state(Stein,2017). An overview of the TDRWP system configuration, brief summary of Hurricanes Irma and Matthew storm track in proximity to KSC, characteristics of the tropospheric wind observations from the TDRWP during both events, and discussion of the dissemination of TDRWP data during the event will be presented.

4th Optimization Day

CERN Document Server

Eberhard, Andrew; Ralph, Daniel; Glover, Barney M

1999-01-01

Although the monograph Progress in Optimization I: Contributions from Aus­ tralasia grew from the idea of publishing a proceedings of the Fourth Optimiza­ tion Day, held in July 1997 at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, the focus soon changed to a refereed volume in optimization. The intention is to publish a similar book annually, following each Optimization Day. The idea of having an annual Optimization Day was conceived by Barney Glover; the first of these Optimization Days was held in 1994 at the University of Ballarat. Barney hoped that such a yearly event would bring together the many, but widely dispersed, researchers in Australia who were publishing in optimization and related areas such as control. The first Optimization Day event was followed by similar conferences at The University of New South Wales (1995), The University of Melbourne (1996), the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (1997), and The University of Western Australia (1998). The 1999 conference will return to Ballarat ...

Upward lightning attachment analysis on wind turbines and correlated current parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogel, Stephan; Ishii, M.; Saito, M.

2017-01-01

This work provides insight in the attachment characteristics of upward initiated lightning discharges to wind turbines and their possible consequences for the lightning protection of wind turbine blades. All discharges were recorded at the Japanese coast of the Sea of Japan which is known...... for intense upward lightning activity. 172 video recordings of lightning discharges on rotating wind turbines are analysed and attachment angle, detachment angle, and the resulting angular displacement were determined. A classification between self-initiated and other-triggered upward lightning events...... is performed by means of video analysis. The results reveal that the majority of discharges are initiated on vertical blades; however, also attachments to horizontal blades are reported. Horizontal attachment (or a slightly inclined blade state) is often related with a triggered lightning event prior...

An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Alessandrini, S.; Pinson, P.; Hagedorn, R.; Decimi, G.; Sperati, S.

2011-02-01

The wind power forecasts of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast applied in this study is based on meteorological models that provide the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. For this purpose a training of a Neural Network (NN) to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has been performed. One wind farm has been examined located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). First we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by the combination of models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error (normalized by nominal power) of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Finally we have focused on the possibility of using the ensemble model system (EPS by ECMWF) to estimate the hourly, three days ahead, power forecast accuracy. Contingency diagram between RMSE of the deterministic power forecast and the ensemble members spread of wind forecast have been produced. From this first analysis it seems that ensemble spread could be used as an indicator of the forecast's accuracy at least for the first three days ahead period.

Cooperative Optimal Operation of Wind-Storage Facilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe

2014-01-01

investment cost. We suggest benefitting the storage unit as a regulation service provider beside its normal operation for mitigating wind power imbalances. This idea comes from the fact that storage units have a fast ramping capability which is necessary to meet close to real-time regulation needs......As the penetration of wind power increases in power systems across the world, wind forecast errors become an emerging problem. Storage units are reliable tools to be used in cooperation with wind farms to mitigate imbalance penalties. Nevertheless they are not still economically viable due to huge....... In this paper a framework is proposed to formulate the optimal design of storage unit’s operation under different scenarios. These scenarios include whether the wind farm is actually generating more or less than the scheduled level submitted to day-ahead market. The results emphasize that the deployment...

Low-Frequency Rotation of Surface Winds over Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard B. Richardson

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Hourly surface observations from the Canadian Weather Energy and Engineering Dataset were analyzed with respect to long-term wind direction drift or rotation. Most of the Canadian landmass, including the High Arctic, exhibits a spatially consistent and remarkably steady anticyclonic rotation of wind direction. The period of anticyclonic rotation recorded at 144 out of 149 Canadian meteostations directly correlated with latitude and ranged from 7 days at Medicine Hat (50°N, 110°W to 25 days at Resolute (75°N, 95°W. Only five locations in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast were found to obey a “negative” (i.e., cyclonic rotation. The observed anticyclonic rotation appears to be a deterministic, virtually ubiquitous, and highly persistent feature of continental surface wind. These findings are directly applicable to probabilistic assessments of airborne pollutants.

[Process study on hysteresis of vegetation cover influencing sand-dust events].

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xing-Kui; Wang, Xiao-Tao; Zhang, Feng

2009-02-15

Data analysis from satellite and weather stations during 1982-2000 shows nonlinear relationship between vegetation cover and sand-dust events is present in most part of China. Vegetation cover ratio in summer can impact significantly on the frequency of sand-dust storms from winter to spring in the source regions of sand-dust events. It is not quite clear about the hysteresis that vegetation cover in summer influence sand-dust events during winter and spring. A quasi-geostrophic barotropic model is used under the condition of 3 magnitude of frictional coefficient to investigate the cause of the hysteresis. Wind velocity shows a greatest decline at 90% during 72 h as initial wind velocity is 10 m/s for magnitude of frictional coefficient between atmosphere and water surface, greatest decline at 100% during 18 h for magnitude of frictional coefficient between atmosphere and bare soil and a 100% reduction of wind speed during 1 h for magnitude of frictional coefficient between atmosphere and vegetation cover. Observation and simulation prove that residual root and stem from summervegetation are one of factors to influence sand-dust events happened during winter and spring. Air inhibition from residual root and stem is a most important reason for hysteresis that vegetation cover influence sand-dust events.

Large-scale introduction of wind power stations in the Swedish grid: a simulation study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsson, L

1978-08-01

This report describes a simulation study on the factors to be considered if wind power were to be introduced to the south Swedish power grid on a large scale. The simulations are based upon a heuristic power generation planning model, developed for the purpose. The heuristic technique reflects the actual running strategies of a big power company with suitable accuracy. All simulations refer to certain typical days in 1976 to which all wind data and system characteristics are related. The installed amount of wind power will not be subject to optimization. All differences between planned and real wind power generation is equalized by regulation of the hydro power. The simulations made differ according to how the installed amount of wind power is handled in the power generation planning. The simulations indicate that the power system examined could well bear an introduction of wind power up to a level of 20% of the total power installed. This result is of course valid only for the days examined and does not necessarily apply to the present day structure of the system.

Stennis Space Center celebrates Diversity Day

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Kendall Mitchell of the Naval Oceanographic Office (right) learns about the culture of Bolivia from Narda Inchausty, president of the Foreign Born Wives Association in Slidell, La., during 2009 Diversity Day events at NASA's John Stennis Space Center. Stennis hosted Diversity Day activities for employees on Oct. 7. The day's events included cultural and agency exhibits, diversity-related performances, a trivia contest and a classic car and motorcycle show. It also featured the first-ever sitewide Stennis Employee Showcase.

Changes in Surface Wind Speed over North America from CMIP5 Model Projections and Implications for Wind Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sujay Kulkarni

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The centennial trends in the surface wind speed over North America are deduced from global climate model simulations in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5 archive. Using the 21st century simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, 5–10 percent increases per century in the 10 m wind speed are found over Central and East-Central United States, the Californian Coast, and the South and East Coasts of the USA in winter. In summer, climate models projected decreases in the wind speed ranging from 5 to 10 percent per century over the same coastal regions. These projected changes in the surface wind speed are moderate and imply that the current estimate of wind power potential for North America based on present-day climatology will not be significantly changed by the greenhouse gas forcing in the coming decades.

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic agent-based model of activity-travel behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijland, E.W.L.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2009-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention today in activity-based transport demand modeling. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that

Golf in the Wind: Exploring the Effect of Wind on the Accuracy of Golf Shots

Science.gov (United States)

Yaghoobian, Neda; Mittal, Rajat

2015-11-01

Golf play is highly dependent on the weather conditions with wind being the most significant factor in the unpredictability of the ball landing position. The direction and strength of the wind alters the aerodynamic forces on a ball in flight, and consequently its speed, distance and direction of travel. The fact that local wind conditions on any particular hole change over times-scales ranging all the way from a few seconds to minutes, hours and days introduces an element of variability in the ball trajectory that is not understood. Any such analysis is complicated by the effect of the local terrestrial and vegetation topology, as well as the inherent complexity of golf-ball aerodynamics. In the current study, we use computational modeling to examine the unpredictability of the shots under different wind conditions over Hole-12 at the Augusta National Golf Club, where the Masters Golf Tournament takes place every year. Despite this being the shortest hole on the course, the presence of complex vegetation canopy around this hole introduces a spatial and temporal variability in wind conditions that evokes uncertainty and even fear among professional golfers. We use our model to examine the effect of wind direction and wind-speed on the accuracy of the golf shots at this hole and use the simulations to determine the key aerodynamic factors that affect the accuracy of the shot.

Wind energy applications of synthetic aperture radar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruun Christiansen, M.

2006-11-15

Synthetic aperture radars (SAR), mounted on satellites or aircraft, have proven useful for ocean wind mapping. Wind speeds at the height 10 m may be retrieved from measurements of radar backscatter using empirical model functions. The resulting wind fields are valuable in offshore wind energy planning as a supplement to on site measurements, which are costly and sparse, and model wind fields, which are not fully validated. Two applications of SAR measurements in offshore wind energy planning are addressed here: the study of wind farm wake effects and the potential of using SAR winds in offshore wind resource assessment. Firstly, wind wakes behind two large offshore wind farms in Denmark Horns Rev and Nysted are identified. A region of reduced wind speed is found downstream of both wind farms from the SAR wind fields. The wake extent and magnitude depends on the wind speed, the atmospheric stability, and the fraction of turbines operating. Wind farm wake effects are detected up to 20 km downwind of the last turbine. This distance is longer than predicted by state-of-the art wake models. Wake losses are typically 10-20% near the wind farms. Secondly, the potential of using SAR wind maps in offshore wind resource assessment is investigated. The resource assessment is made through Weibull fitting to frequency observations of wind speed and requires at least 100 satellite observations per year for a given site of interest. Predictions of the energy density are very sensitive to the wind speed and the highest possible accuracy on SAR wind retrievals is therefore sought. A 1.1 m s{sup -1} deviation on the mean wind speed is found through comparison with mast measurements at Horns Rev. The accuracy on mean wind speeds and energy densities found from satellite measurements varies with different empirical model functions. Additional uncertainties are introduced by the infrequent satellite sampling at fixed times of the day. The accuracy on satellite based wind resource

A 31-day battery-operated recording weather station.

Science.gov (United States)

Richard J. Barney

1972-01-01

The battery-powered recording weather station measures and records wet bulb temperature, dry bulb temperature, wind travel, and rainfall for 31 days. Assembly procedures and cost of supplies and components are discussed.

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosgaard, M. H.; Giebel, Gregor; Nielsen, T. S.

2012-01-01

model to be developed in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. This integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting......This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the working title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The project commenced October 1, 2011, and the goal is to integrate a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely...

Wind Tunnel Modeling Of Wind Flow Over Complex Terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Banks, D.; Cochran, B.

2010-12-01

, vortex shedding, and local turbulence intensity and wind shear values. To achieve accurate results, attention must of course be paid to issues such as ensuring Reynolds number independence, avoiding blockage issues, and properly matching the velocity power spectrum, but once this is done, the laws of fluid mechanics take care of the rest. There will not be an overproduction of turbulent kinetic energy at the top of escarpments, or unacceptable dissipation of inlet turbulence levels. Modern atmospheric boundary layer wind tunnels are also often used to provide validation data for evaluating the performance of CFD model in complex flow environments. Present day computers have further increased the quality and quantity of data that can be economically obtained in a timely manner, for example through wind speed measurement using a computer controlled 3-D measurement positioning system Given this accuracy and widespread acceptance, it is perhaps surprising that ours was the only wind tunnel model in the Bolund blind experiment, an indication of how seldom physical modelling is used when estimating terrain effect for wind farms. In demonstrating how the Bolund test was modeled, this presentation will provide background on wind tunnel testing, including the governing scaling parameters. And we’ll see how our results compared to the full scale tests.

60th anniversary celebrations: events in the coming 10 days

CERN Multimedia

2014-01-01

This is an eventful week. Read this summary and don’t miss these unique events!   Saturday 20 September: Particle Fever film screening and Comedy Night show: the event is sold out but the discussion that will take place between 8.45 p.m. and 9.30 p.m. will be available on webcast. Thursday 25 and Friday 26 September: Researchers' Night - POPscience. To make the Researchers' Night even more POPular, CERN will meet its public outside the Laboratory: at FNAC Rive, the Salle Centrale Madeleine (free entrance, reservation possible), and the Théâtre du Bordeau in Saint-Genis-Pouilly. A unique mix of arts, poetry, theatre, music, science and encounters. Friday 26 September: From Physics to daily life colloquium in the Main Auditorium will feature talks by several scientists and experts of the technologies that have changed our life. The webcast in English and French will be available from 9 a.m. Monday 29 ...

Wind energy resources assessment for Yanbo, Saudi Arabia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehman, Shafiqur

2004-01-01

The paper presents long term wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal and diurnal variations at Yanbo, which is located on the west coast of Saudi Arabia. The wind speed and wind direction hourly data for a period of 14 years between 1970 and 1983 is used in the analysis. The analysis showed that the seasonal and diurnal pattern of wind speed matches the electricity load pattern of the location. Higher winds of the order of 5.0 m/s and more were observed during the summer months of the year and noon hours (09:00 to 16:00 h) of the day. The wind duration availability is discussed as the percent of hours during which the wind remained in certain wind speed intervals or bins. Wind energy calculations were performed using wind machines of sizes 150, 250, 600, 800, 1000, 1300, 1500, 2300 and 2500 kW rated power. Wind speed is found to remain above 3.5 m/s for 69% of the time during the year at 40, 50, 60, and 80 m above ground level. The energy production analysis showed higher production from wind machines of smaller sizes than the bigger ones for a wind farm of 30 MW installed capacity. Similarly, higher capacity factors were obtained for smaller wind machines compared to larger ones

Observational evidence of quasi-27-day oscillation propagating from the lower atmosphere to the mesosphere over 20° N

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. M. Huang

2015-10-01

Full Text Available By using meteor radar, radiosonde and satellite observations over 20° N and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 81 days from 22 December 2004 to 12 March 2005, a quasi-27-day oscillation propagating from the troposphere to the mesosphere is reported. A pronounced 27-day periodicity is observed in the raw zonal wind from meteor radar. Spectral analysis shows that the oscillation also occurs in the meridional wind and temperature and propagates westward with wavenumber s = 1; thus the oscillation is of Rossby wave type. The oscillation attains a large amplitude of about 12 m s−1 in the eastward wind shear region of the troposphere. When the wind shear reverses, its amplitude rapidly decays, and the background wind gradually evolves to be westward. However, the oscillation can penetrate through the weak westward wind field due to its relatively large phase speed. After this, the oscillation restrengthens with its upward propagation and reaches about 20 m s−1 in the mesosphere. Reanalysis data show that the oscillation can propagate to the mid and high latitudes from the low latitudes and has large amplitudes over there. There is another interesting phenomenon that a quasi-46-day oscillation appears simultaneously in the troposphere, but it cannot penetrate through the westward wind field because of its smaller phase speed. In the observational interval, a quasi-27-day periodicity in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR and specific humidity is found in a latitudinal zone of 5–20° N. Thus the quasi-27-day oscillation may be an atmospheric response to forcing due to the convective activity with a period of about 27 days in the tropical region.

Long-range transport of air pollution under light gradient wind conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurita, H.; Sasaki, K.; Muroga, H.; Ueda, H.; Wakamatsu, S.

1985-01-01

The long-range transport of air pollution on clear days under light gradient wind conditions is investigated from an analysis of all days with high oxidant concentrations in 1979 at locations in central Japan that are far from pollutant sources. Surface-level wind and pressure distributions over a 300 x 300 km area were analyzed, together with concentration isopleths of oxidants and suspended particles produced by photochemical reactions

Wind farm electrical power production model for load flow analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Segura-Heras, Isidoro; Escriva-Escriva, Guillermo; Alcazar-Ortega, Manuel

2011-01-01

The importance of renewable energy increases in activities relating to new forms of managing and operating electrical power: especially wind power. Wind generation is increasing its share in the electricity generation portfolios of many countries. Wind power production in Spain has doubled over the past four years and has reached 20 GW. One of the greatest problems facing wind farms is that the electrical power generated depends on the variable characteristics of the wind. To become competitive in a liberalized market, the reliability of wind energy must be guaranteed. Good local wind forecasts are therefore essential for the accurate prediction of generation levels for each moment of the day. This paper proposes an electrical power production model for wind farms based on a new method that produces correlated wind speeds for various wind farms. This method enables a reliable evaluation of the impact of new wind farms on the high-voltage distribution grid. (author)

WIND SPEED Monitoring in Northern Eurasia

Science.gov (United States)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2016-12-01

The wind regime of Russia varies a great deal due to the large size of the country's territory and variety of climate and terrain conditions. Changes in the regime of surface wind are of great practical importance. They can affect heat and water balance. Strong wind is one of the most hazardous meteorological event for various sectors of economy and for infrastructure. The main objective of this research is to monitoring wind speed change in Northern Eurasia At meteorological stations wind speed and wind direction are measured at the height of 10-12 meters over the land surface with the help of wind meters or wind wanes. Calculations were made on the basis of data for the period of 1980-2015. It allowed the massive scale disruption of homogeneity to be eliminated and sufficient period needed to obtain sustainable statistic characteristics to be retained. Data on average and maximum wind speed measured at 1457 stations of Russia were used. The analysis of changes in wind characteristics was made on the basis of point data and series of average characteristics obtained for 18 quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Statistical characteristics (average and maximum values of wind speed, prevailing wind direction, values of the boundary of the 90%, 95% and 99%-confidence interval in the distribution of maximum wind speed) were obtained for all seasons and for the year as a whole. Values of boundaries of the 95% and 99%-confidence interval in the distribution of maximum wind speed were considered as indicators of extremeness of the wind regime. The trend of changes in average and maximum wind speed was assessed with a linear trend coefficient. A special attention was paid to wind changes in the Arctic where dramatic changes in surface air temperature and sea ice extent and density have been observed during the past decade. The analysis of the results allowed seasonal and regional features of changes in the wind regime on the territory of the northern part of Eurasia to be

Trading wind energy on the basis of probabilistic forecasts both of wind generation and of market quantities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zugno, Marco; Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

2013-01-01

in liberalized electricity markets and to assess its performance. At first, the so-called optimal quantile strategy is revisited. It is proved that without market power, i.e. under the price-taker assumption, this strategy maximizes expected market revenues. Forecasts of wind power production, of day......-ahead and real-time market prices and of the system imbalance are inputs to this strategy. Subsequently, constraining of the bid that maximizes the expected revenues is proposed as a way to overcome the strategy's disregard of practical limitations and, at the same time, of risk. Two constraining techniques......Wind power is not easily predictable and non-dispatchable. Nevertheless, wind power producers are increasingly urged to participate in electricity market auctions in the same manner as conventional power producers. The aim of this paper is to propose an operational strategy for trading wind energy...

Wind shear coefficients and their effect on energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehman, Shafiqur; Al-Abbadi, Naif M.

2005-01-01

This paper provides realistic values of wind shear coefficients calculated using measured values of wind speed at 20, 30 and 40 m above the ground for the first time in Saudi Arabia in particular and, to the best of the authors' knowledge, in the Gulf region in general. The paper also presents air density values calculated using the measured air temperature and surface pressure and the effects of wind shear factor on energy production from wind machines of different sizes. The measured data used in the study covered a period of almost three years between June 17, 1995 and December 1998. An overall mean value of wind shear coefficient of 0.194 can be used with confidence to calculate the wind speed at different heights if measured values are known at one height. The study showed that the wind shear coefficient is significantly influenced by seasonal and diurnal changes. Hence, for precise estimations of wind speed at a height, both monthly or seasonal and hourly or night time and day time average values of wind shear coefficient must be used. It is suggested that the wind shear coefficients must be calculated either (i) using long term average values of wind speed at different heights or (ii) using those half hourly mean values of wind speed for which the wind shear coefficient lies in the range 0 and 0.51. The air density, calculated using measured temperature and pressure was found to be 1.18 kg/m 3 . The air density values were also found to vary with the season of the year and hour of the day, and hence, care must be taken when precise calculations are to be made. The air density values, as shown in this paper, have no significant variation with height. The energy production analysis showed that the actual wind shear coefficient presented in this paper produced 6% more energy compared to that obtained using the 1/7 power law. Similarly, higher plant capacity factors were obtained with the wind shear factor of 0.194 compared to that with 0.143

Hazard analysis of typhoon-related external events using extreme value theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yo Chan; Jang, Seung Cheol [Integrated Safety Assessment Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Tae Jin [Dept. of Industrial Information Systems Engineering, Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

2016 Fee Wind energy directory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-12-01

France is currently engaged in the energy transition where ambitious goals are at stake to allow the country to be one of the leading European countries in renewable energies. The cost of onshore wind is getting more and more competitive and for this reason, wind energy professionals are committed in contributing actively to reach the 32 % objective of renewable energies in the final energy consumption and 40 % of renewable energies in the electricity mix for 2030. 2014 was marked by a swift growth of the installed onshore wind energy, the positive trend is confirmed in 2015 with more than 500 MW connected to the grid in the first half of the year, corresponding to the annual forecast of 1,200 MW for 2015. Thanks to the energy transition law, operational policies will be implemented through the multi-annual energy programming (PPE- programmation pluriannuelle de l'energie). France will therefore continue increasing its development of renewable energies. This law will also allow France to develop offshore wind energy and to strengthen its position regarding wind energy: with an objective of 15 GW of fixed offshore wind energy and 6 GW of floating wind energy to be built in the 2030 horizon, the sector will be able to guarantee its development, especially in the current context of strong worldwide competition. Some 10,000 direct and indirect jobs are awaited for offshore wind energy on the national territory and wind energy professionals underline that the development of the offshore wind sector will contribute to the economic dynamism of the country. This sector is thus a job creating sector as confirmed in the figures of the wind employment monitor (observatoire de l'emploi) in France, recording a significant growth in 2013 with 10,800 jobs. This upward trend was confirmed in 2014. This proves the continuous commitment of the wind industry in seeing the success of the energy transition in France in a context marked by numerous energy and climate events

Advanced Offshore Wind Energy - Atlantic Consortium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kempton, Willett

2015-11-04

This project developed relationships among the lead institution, U of Delaware, wind industry participants from 11 companies, and two other universities in the region. The participating regional universities were University of Maryland and Old Dominion University. Research was carried out in six major areas: Analysis and documentation of extreme oceanic wind events & their impact on design parameters, calibration of corrosivity estimates measured on a coastal turbine, measurment and modeling of tower structures, measurement and modeling of the tribology of major drive components, and gearbox conditioning monitoring using acoustic sensors. The project also had several educational goals, including establishing a course in wind energy and training graduate students. Going beyond these goals, three new courses were developed, a graduate certificate program in wind power was developed and approved, and an exchange program in wind energy was established with Danish Technical University. Related to the installation of a Gamesa G90 turbine on campus and a Gamesa-UD research program established in part due to this award, several additional research projects have been carried out based on mutual industry-university interests, and funded by turbine revenues. This award and the Gamesa partnership have jointly led to seven graduate students receiving full safety and climb training, to become “research climbers” as part of their wind power training, and contributing to on-turbine research. As a result of the educational program, already six graduate students have taken jobs in the US wind industry.

Science Hack Day uses CMS data

CERN Multimedia

Katerina Sandoval

2012-01-01

Science Hack events: a new way for scientists, designers and other techno-savvy people to interact. The most recent Science Hack Day was held in San Francisco and with it the CMS collaboration found an original and simple way to present its data. Science Hack events: a new way for scientists, designers and other techno-savvy people to interact. The most recent Science Hack Day was held in San Francisco and with it the CMS collaboration found an original and simple way to present its data.   Participants in the CMS hack event. (Photo credit: Morris Mwanga.) First of all, you need to know what “hack” means. A hack is a quick solution to a problem, often the cleverest one if not the most elegant. So, a Science Hack Day is a 48-hour all-night event that brings together “hackers” to create innovative solutions to scientific problems. This year’s event was held in San Francisco from 12 to 13 November and was a huge success! It hosted around 150 s...

Conference on territorial planning of wind energy - engine or hindrance of climate policy? A French-German comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lengyel, Jacques; Von Nicolai, Helmuth; Thomas, Isabelle; Lueer, Michael; Eric Virvaux

2009-01-01

In the framework of the 2009 edition of the European Wind Energy Conference, the French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a side event on the territorial planning of wind energy. During this French-German exchange of experience, participants exchanged views on: the importance given to climate policy with respect to other territorial planning goals, like nature protection; the involvement of project managers and citizens; the conciliation between 'regional development scheme' and wind energy development areas; and the regional implementation of government objectives. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Territorial planning of wind energy (Jacques Lengyel); 2 - The German planning systems for the definition of wind energy development areas (Helmuth von Nicolai); 3 - The wind energy regional scheme in Brittany - Accompanying the deployment of 1000 MW by 2010 (Isabelle Thomas); 4 - Definition of wind energy development areas in the framework of the German regional planning - Advantages and drawbacks for the wind energy industry (Michael Lueer); 5 - Implementation of the regional schemes for the development of renewable energies: the Renewable Energies Syndicate (SER)/France Wind Energy (FEE) proposals for the wind energy aspect (Eric Virvaux)

Analysis of Highly Wind Power Integrated Power System model performance during Critical Weather conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Basit, Abdul; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

2014-01-01

, is provided by the hour-ahead power balancing model, i.e. Simulation power Balancing model (SimBa. The regulating power plan is prepared from day-ahead power production plan and hour-ahead wind power forecast. The wind power (forecasts and available) are provided by the Correlated Wind power fluctuations (Cor......Wind) model, where the wind turbine storm controllers are also implemented....

Variations of Kelvin waves around the TTL region during the stratospheric sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere winter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Jia

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variabilities of Kelvin waves during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW events are investigated by the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and the results are validated by the COSMIC temperature data. A case study on an exceptionally large SSW event in 2009, and a composite analysis comprising 18 events from 1980 to 2013 are presented. During SSW events, the average temperature increases by 20 K in the polar stratosphere, while the temperature in the tropical stratosphere decreases by about 4 K. Kelvin wave with wave numbers 1 and 2, and periods 10–20 days, clearly appear around the tropical tropopause layer (TTL during SSWs. The Kelvin wave activity shows obvious coupling with the convection localized in the India Ocean and western Pacific (Indo-Pacific region. Detailed analysis suggests that the enhanced meridional circulation driven by the extratropical planetary wave forcing during SSW events leads to tropical upwelling, which further produces temperature decrease in the tropical stratosphere. The tropical upwelling and cooling consequently result in enhancement of convection in the equatorial region, which excites the strong Kelvin wave activity. In addition, we investigated the Kelvin wave acceleration to the eastward zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere during SSW events. The composite analysis shows that the proportion of Kelvin wave contribution ranges from 5 to 35 % during SSWs, much larger than in the non-SSW mid-winters (less than 5 % in the stratosphere. However, the Kelvin wave alone is insufficient to drive the equatorial eastward zonal wind anomalies during the SSW events, which suggests that the effects of other types of equatorial waves may not be neglected.

Winds and the distribution of nearshore phytoplankton in a stratified lake.

Science.gov (United States)

Cyr, Hélène

2017-10-01

The distribution of phytoplankton in lakes is notoriously patchy and dynamic, but wind-driven currents and algal buoyancy/motility are thought to determine where algae accumulate. In this study, nearshore phytoplankton were sampled from different parts of a lake basin twice a day for 4-5 consecutive days, in the spring and in late summer, to test whether short-term changes in phytoplankton biomass and community composition can be predicted from wind-driven currents. On windy days, phytoplankton biomass was higher at downwind than at upwind nearshore sites, and the magnitude of this difference increased linearly with increasing wind speed. However, contrary to the generally assumed downwind phytoplankton aggregations, these differences were mostly due to upwelling activity and the dilution of phytoplankton at upwind nearshore sites. The distribution of individual taxa was also related to wind speed, but only during late stratification (except for cryptophytes), and these relationships were consistent with the buoyancy and motility of each group. On windy days, large diatoms and cyanobacteria concentrated upwind, neutrally buoyant taxa (green algae, small diatoms) were homogeneously distributed, and motile taxa (cryptophytes, chrysophytes, dinoflagellates) concentrated downwind. Predictable differences in the biomass and composition of phytoplankton communities could affect the efficiency of trophic transfers in nearshore areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

75 FR 23263 - Alta Wind I, LLC; Alta Wind II, LLC; Alta Wind III, LLC; Alta Wind IV, LLC; Alta Wind V, LLC...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-03

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. EL10-62-000] Alta Wind I, LLC; Alta Wind II, LLC; Alta Wind III, LLC; Alta Wind IV, LLC; Alta Wind V, LLC; Alta Wind VI, LLC; Alta Wind VII, LLC; Alta Wind VIII, LLC; Alta Windpower Development, LLC; TGP Development Company, LLC...

77 FR 29633 - Alta Wind VII, LLC, Alta Wind IX, LLC, Alta Wind X, LLC, Alta Wind XI, LLC, Alta Wind XII, LLC...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-18

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. EL12-68-000] Alta Wind VII, LLC, Alta Wind IX, LLC, Alta Wind X, LLC, Alta Wind XI, LLC, Alta Wind XII, LLC, Alta Wind XIII, LLC, Alta Wind XIV, LLC, Alta Wind XV, LLC, Alta Windpower Development, LLC, TGP Development Company, LLC...

27-day variation in solar-terrestrial parameters: Global characteristics and an origin based approach of the signals

Science.gov (United States)

Poblet, Facundo L.; Azpilicueta, Francisco

2018-05-01

The Earth and the near interplanetary medium are affected by the Sun in different ways. Those processes generated in the Sun that induce perturbations into the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system are called geoeffective processes and show a wide range of temporal variations, like the 11-year solar cycle (long term variations), the variation of ∼27 days (recurrent variations), solar storms enduring for some days, particle acceleration events lasting for some hours, etc. In this article, the periodicity of ∼27 days associated with the solar synodic rotation period is investigated. The work is mainly focused on studying the resulting 27-day periodic signal in the magnetic activity, by the analysis of the horizontal component of the magnetic field registered on a set of 103 magnetic observatories distributed around the world. For this a new method to isolate the periodicity of interest has been developed consisting of two main steps: the first one consists of removing the linear trend corresponding to every calendar year from the data series, and the second one of removing from the resulting series a smoothed version of it obtained by applying a 30-day moving average. The result at the end of this process is a data series in which all the signal with periods larger than 30 days are canceled. The most important characteristics observed in the resulting signals are two main amplitude modulations: the first and most prominent related to the 11-year solar cycle and the second one with a semiannual pattern. In addition, the amplitude of the signal shows a dependence on the geomagnetic latitude of the observatory with a significant discontinuity at approx. ±60°. The processing scheme was also applied to other parameters that are widely used to characterize the energy transfer from the Sun to the Earth: F10.7 and Mg II indices and the ionospheric vertical total electron content (vTEC) were considered for radiative interactions; and the solar wind velocity for the non

Interannual variations in length-of-day (LOD) as a tool to assess climate variability and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmann, E.

2016-12-01

On interannual time scales the atmosphere affects significantly fluctuations in the geodetic quantity of length-of-day (LOD). This effect is directly proportional to perturbations in the relative angular momentum of the atmosphere (AAM) computed from zonal winds. During El Niño events tropospheric westerlies increase due to elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific inducing peak anomalies in relative AAM and correspondingly, in LOD. However, El Niño events affect LOD variations differently strong and the causes of this varying effect are yet not clear. Here, we investigate the LOD-El Niño relationship in the 20th and 21st century (1982-2100) whether the quantity of LOD can be used as a geophysical tool to assess variability and change in a future climate. In our analysis we applied a windowed discrete Fourier transform on all de-seasonalized data to remove climatic signals outside of the El Niño frequency band. LOD (data: IERS) was related in space and time to relative AAM and SSTs (data: ERA-40 reanalysis, IPCC ECHAM05-OM1 20C, A1B). Results from mapped Pearson correlation coefficients and time frequency behavior analysis identified a teleconnection pattern that we term the EN≥65%-index. The EN≥65%-index prescribes a significant change in variation in length-of-day of +65% and more related to (1) SST anomalies of >2° in the Pacific Niño region (160°E-80°W, 5°S-5°N), (2) corresponding stratospheric warming anomalies of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and (3) strong westerly winds in the lower equatorial stratosphere. In our analysis we show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean conditions prescribed in the EN≥65%-index apply to the extreme El Niño events of 19982/83 and 1997/98, and to 75% of all El Niño events in the last third of the 21st century. At that period of time the EN≥65%-index describes a projected altered base state of the equatorial Pacific that shows almost continuous El Niño conditions under climate warming.

Application of microwave radiometer and wind profiler data in the estimation of wind gust associated with intense convective weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, P W; Wong, K H

2008-01-01

Estimates of the wind gusts associated with intense convective weather could be obtained using empirical relationships such as GUSTEX based on radiosonde measurements. However, such data are only available a couple of times a day and may not reflect the rapidly changing atmospheric condition in spring and summer times. The feasibility of combining the thermodynamic profiles from a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiles given by radar wind profilers in the continuous estimation of wind gusts is studied in this paper. Based on the results of a 4-month trial of a microwave radiometer in Hong Kong in 2004, the estimated and the actual gusts are reasonably well correlated. It is also found that the wind gusts so estimated provide better indications of the strength of squalls compared with those based on radiosonde measurements and with a lead time of about one hour

Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

2012-01-01

In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

Collision risk of birds with modern large wind turbines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krijgsveld, K.L.; Akershoek, K.; Schenk, F.; Dijk, van F.; Dirksen, J.

2009-01-01

We studied collision rate of birds with modern, large 1.65 MW wind turbines in three wind farms in The Netherlands during three months in autumn and winter. Collision rate, after correction for retrieval and disappearance rate, was 0.08 birds per turbine per day on average (range 0.05-0.19).

Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. V. Drisya

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.