Wind tunnel experimental study on the effect of PAM on soil wind erosion control.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Ji-Jun; Cai, Qiang-Guo; Tang, Ze-Jun

2008-10-01

In recent years, high-molecular-weight anionic polyacrylamide (PAM) have been widely tested on a variety of soils, primarily in water erosion control. However, little information is available regarding the effectiveness of PAM on preventing soil loss from wind erosion. The research adopted room wind tunnel experiment, two kinds of soils were used which were from the agro-pastoral area of Inner Mongolia, the northwest of China, the clay content of soils were 22.0 and 13.7%, respectively. For these tests, all the treatments were performed under the condition of wind velocity of 14 m s(-1) and a blown angle of 8.75%, according to the actual situation of experimented area. The study results indicated that using PAM on the soil surface could enhance the capability of avoiding the wind erosion, at the same time, the effect of controlling wind soil erosion with 4 g m(-2) PAM was better than 2 g m(-2) PAM's. Economically, the 2 g m(-2) PAM used in soil surface can control wind erosion effectively in this region. The prophase PAM accumulated in soil could not improve the capability of avoiding the wind erosion, owing to the degradation of PAM in the soil and the continual tillage year after year. The texture of soil is a main factor influencing the capability of soil avoiding wind erosion. Soil with higher clay content has the higher capability of preventing soil from wind erosion than one with the opposite one under the together action of PAM and water.

[Estimation of the effect derived from wind erosion of soil and dust emission in Tianjin suburbs on the central district based on WEPS model].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Li; Han, Ting-Ting; Li, Tao; Ji, Ya-Qin; Bai, Zhi-Peng; Wang, Bin

2012-07-01

Due to the lack of a prediction model for current wind erosion in China and the slow development for such models, this study aims to predict the wind erosion of soil and the dust emission and develop a prediction model for wind erosion in Tianjin by investigating the structure, parameter systems and the relationships among the parameter systems of the prediction models for wind erosion in typical areas, using the U.S. wind erosion prediction system (WEPS) as reference. Based on the remote sensing technique and the test data, a parameter system was established for the prediction model of wind erosion and dust emission, and a model was developed that was suitable for the prediction of wind erosion and dust emission in Tianjin. Tianjin was divided into 11 080 blocks with a resolution of 1 x 1 km2, among which 7 778 dust emitting blocks were selected. The parameters of the blocks were localized, including longitude, latitude, elevation and direction, etc.. The database files of blocks were localized, including wind file, climate file, soil file and management file. The weps. run file was edited. Based on Microsoft Visualstudio 2008, secondary development was done using C + + language, and the dust fluxes of 7 778 blocks were estimated, including creep and saltation fluxes, suspension fluxes and PM10 fluxes. Based on the parameters of wind tunnel experiments in Inner Mongolia, the soil measurement data and climate data in suburbs of Tianjin, the wind erosion module, wind erosion fluxes, dust emission release modulus and dust release fluxes were calculated for the four seasons and the whole year in suburbs of Tianjin. In 2009, the total creep and saltation fluxes, suspension fluxes and PM10 fluxes in the suburbs of Tianjin were 2.54 x 10(6) t, 1.25 x 10(7) t and 9.04 x 10(5) t, respectively, among which, the parts pointing to the central district were 5.61 x 10(5) t, 2.89 x 10(6) t and 2.03 x 10(5) t, respectively.

Wind erosion potential after land application of biosolids

Science.gov (United States)

PI, H.; Sharratt, B. S.; Schillinger, W. F.; Bary, A.; Cogger, C.

2017-12-01

The world population is currently 7.6 billion and, along with continued population growth, comes the challenge of disposing of wastewater and sewage sludge (biosolids). Applying biosolids to agricultural land to replace synthetic fertilizers represents a relatively safe method to recycle or sustainably use biosolids. While land application of biosolids is recognized as a sustainable management practice for enhancing soil health, no studies have determined the effects of biosolids on soil wind erosion. Wind erosion potential of a silt loam was assessed using a portable wind tunnel after applying synthetic and biosolid fertilizer to conventional and conservation tillage practices during the summer fallow phase of a winter wheat-summer fallow rotation in 2015 and 2016 in east-central Washington. Little difference in soil loss was observed between biosolid and synthetic fertilizer treatments, but this result appeared to be dependent on susceptibility of the soil to erosion. Regression analysis between soil loss from fertilizer or tillage treatments indicated that soil loss was lower from biosolid versus synthetic fertilizer and conservation versus conventional tillage at high erosion rates. This suggests that biosolids may reduce wind erosion under highly erodible conditions. Meanwhile, heavy metal concentrations in the windblown sediment were similar for the biosolid and synthetic fertilizer treatments whereas metal loss in windblown sediment was 10% lower from biosolid than synthetic fertilizer. Our results indicate that land application of biosolids did not accelerate the loss of metals or nutrients from soils during high winds. KeywordsLand application of biosolids; wind erosion; wind tunnel; sustainable agriculture

Wind tunnel experiments on the effects of tillage ridge features on wind erosion horizontal fluxes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Kardous

2005-11-01

Full Text Available In addition to the well-known soil factors which control wind erosion on flat, unridged surfaces, two specific processes affect the susceptibility of tillage ridged surfaces to wind erosion: ridge-induced roughness and ridge- trapping efficiency. In order to parameterize horizontal soil fluxes produced by wind over tillage ridges, eight-ridge configurations composed of sandy soil and exhibiting ridge heights to ridge spacing (RH/RS ratios ranging from 0.18 to 0.38 were experimented in a wind tunnel. These experiments are used to develop a parameterization of the horizontal fluxes over tillage ridged surfaces based only on the geometric characteristics of the ridges. Indeed, the key parameters controlling the horizontal flux, namely the friction velocity, threshold friction velocity and the adjustment coefficient, are derived through specific expressions, from ridge heights (RH and ridge spacing (RS. This parameterization was evaluated by comparing the results of the simulations to an additional experimental data set and to the data set obtained by Hagen and Armbrust (1992. In both cases, predicted and measured values are found to be in a satisfying agreement. This parameterization was used to evaluate the efficiency of ridges in reducing wind erosion. The results show that ridged surfaces, when compared to a loose, unridged soil surface, lead to an important reduction in the horizontal fluxes (exceeding 60%. Moreover, the effect of ridges in trapping particles contributes for more than 90% in the flux reduction while the ridge roughness effect is weak and decreases when the wind velocity increases.

Modelling of environmental and climatic problems: Wind and water erosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aslan, Z.

2004-01-01

Magnitude of wind and water erosion mainly depend on wind velocity, rainfall rate, slope and soil characteristics. The main purpose of this lecture is to define the role of small, meso and large scale phenomena (local and synoptic fluctuations) on water and wind erosion. These lecture notes present some results on wind speed simulation and seasonal fluctuations of water deficit for the selected station in different erosion risque and transition regions of Turkey. (author)

Wind tunnel experiments on the effects of tillage ridge features on wind erosion horizontal fluxes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Kardous

2005-11-01

Full Text Available In addition to the well-known soil factors which control wind erosion on flat, unridged surfaces, two specific processes affect the susceptibility of tillage ridged surfaces to wind erosion: ridge-induced roughness and ridge- trapping efficiency.

In order to parameterize horizontal soil fluxes produced by wind over tillage ridges, eight-ridge configurations composed of sandy soil and exhibiting ridge heights to ridge spacing (RH/RS ratios ranging from 0.18 to 0.38 were experimented in a wind tunnel. These experiments are used to develop a parameterization of the horizontal fluxes over tillage ridged surfaces based only on the geometric characteristics of the ridges. Indeed, the key parameters controlling the horizontal flux, namely the friction velocity, threshold friction velocity and the adjustment coefficient, are derived through specific expressions, from ridge heights (RH and ridge spacing (RS. This parameterization was evaluated by comparing the results of the simulations to an additional experimental data set and to the data set obtained by Hagen and Armbrust (1992. In both cases, predicted and measured values are found to be in a satisfying agreement.

This parameterization was used to evaluate the efficiency of ridges in reducing wind erosion. The results show that ridged surfaces, when compared to a loose, unridged soil surface, lead to an important reduction in the horizontal fluxes (exceeding 60%. Moreover, the effect of ridges in trapping particles contributes for more than 90% in the flux reduction while the ridge roughness effect is weak and decreases when the wind velocity increases.

Spatial and temporal variations of wind erosion climatic erosivity in the farming-pastoral zone of Northern China

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Shuping; Yang, Ruixin; Yan, Yechao; Yang, Zhengwei; Wang, Dandan

2018-03-01

Wind erosion climatic erosivity is an important parameter to assess the possible effects of climatic conditions on wind erosion. In this paper, the wind erosion climatic factor (C-factor), which was used to quantify the wind erosion climatic erosivity, was calculated for the period 1960-2014 based on monthly meteorological data collected from 101 stations in the farming-pastoral zone of Northern China. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, trend analysis, and geostatistical analysis methods were used to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of the wind erosion climatic erosivity in this region. The result suggests that the annual C-factor, with a maximum of 76.05 in 1969 and a minimum of 26.57 in 2007, has a significant decreasing trend over the past 55 years. Strong seasonality in the C-factor was found, with the highest value in spring, which accounts for a significant proportion of the annual C-factor (41.46%). However, the coefficient of variation of the seasonal C-factor reaches a maximum in winter and a minimum in spring. The mean annual C-factor varies substantially across the region. Areas with high values of the mean annual C-factor (C ≥ 100) are located in Ulanqab and Dingxi, while areas with low values (C ≤ 10) lie in Lanzhou, Linxia, Dingxi, Xining, and Chengde. Spatial analysis on the trend of the C-factor reveals that 81% of the stations show statistically significant decreases at a 90% confidence level. An examination of the concentration ratio of the C-factor shows that the wind erosion climatic erosivity is concentrated in spring, especially in April, which makes this period particularly important for implementing soil conservation measures.

On the geoethical implications of wind erosion

Science.gov (United States)

Károly, Tatárvári

2016-04-01

Human activities exerts an ever growing impact on our environment, and this is undeniably the responsibility of mankind. In spite of this fact there is almost no process in our environment that can be described exactly with complete exactness, and the working of which is known in full extent. Wind erosion is such a process. Although water erosion is mentioned ever more often in scientific circles as a from of erosion, its effect is restrained to a certain region, although it may cause perceptibly damage of a greater extent in short time. Wind erosion, apart from the fact that it may have global impact, may play an important role in the warming of our climate according to recent studies. First of all, wind erosion may cause damage far from its origin in human health, nutrition, or in the environment in general. Today several surveys have proved, that erosion caused by wind significantly contributes to the air pollution of cities, the fine dust carried as drift by the wind may cause severe environmental damage in accumulation zones. Microbes, toxic material may attach themselves to the dust carried this way and carried on and by the wings of the wind they may cause health issues in humans animals and plants as well. In spite of these facts there are almost no measures against wind erosion employed in arable land, although our ever doughtier climate and changes would make these necessary. Reduction of organic matter content presents a great problem in a large part of cultivated land, so the risk of the production of high quality food raises questions of more and more ethical nature. Who is responsible? The fact, that the chemicals used in a growing extent by agriculture may reach many people causing considerable damage to the environment also raises serious ethical questions. More and more periods with extreme weather conditions are experienced in Hungary and Europe as the effect of climate change. Drought periods are longer and more frequent as the intensity of

Multi-scale wind erosion monitoring and assessment for US rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

Wind erosion is a major resource concern for rangeland managers. Although wind erosion is a naturally occurring process in many drylands, land use activities, and land management in particular, can accelerate wind-driven soil loss – impacting ecosystem dynamics and agricultural production, air quali...

Determining Wind Erosion in the Great Plains

OpenAIRE

Elwin G. Smith; Burton C. English

1982-01-01

Wind erosion is defined as the movement of soil particles resulting from strong turbulent winds. The movement of soil particles can be categorized as suspension, saltation, or surface creep. Fine soil particles can be suspended in the atmosphere and carried for great distances. Particles too large to be suspended move in a jumping action along the soil surface, known as saltation. Heavier particles have a rolling movement along the surface and this type of erosion is surface creep.

Accelerated rain erosion of wind turbine blade coatings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Shizhong

. There are four chapters in the thesis. In chapter 1, a literature survey provides background information to the field. Topics discussed are the global wind energy development, possible wind turbine constructions, blade structures and materials, blade coatings, and liquid erosion mechanisms. In chapter 2......During operation, the fast-moving blades of wind turbines are exposed to continuous impacts with rain droplets, hail, insects, or solid particles. This can lead to erosion of the blades, whereby the electrical efficiency is compromised and expensive repairs may be required. One possible solution...

Determination of wind erosion intensity on heavy clay soils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jana Kozlovsky Dufková

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Wind erosion, common problem of light-textured soils, was determined on heavy clay soils in the foothills of Bílé Karpaty Mountains, Czech Republic. Soil erodibility by wind was determined from the Map of potential erodibility of soil by wind and from the calculation of potential and real soil loss by wind. All the determinations show underestimation of soil erodibility by wind on heavy clay soils, because methods that are used for this are based above all on the assessment of clay particles content and the presumption the more clay particles soil contains, the less vulnerable to wind erosion is. The potential erodibility of soil by wind is 0,09 t . ha−1 per year. The determined value does not exceed the tolerable soil loss limit 10 t . ha−1 per year for deep soils. The real average erodibility of soil by wind has the highest value 1,47 g . m−2 on November 30th, 2008. Other soil losses that do not exceed the tolerable soil loss limit 1,4 g . m−2, were determined on March 18th and 28th, 2008. Big difficulties come with the assessment of the erodibility of heavy clay soils in the areas, where soil erosion ve­ri­fia­bly exists, but it is not assessable by objective calculating methods. Evident necessity of new know­ledge concerning the determination of wind erosion intensity follows from the results.

Application of fuzzy logic approach for wind erosion hazard mapping in Laghouat region (Algeria) using remote sensing and GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Saadoud, Djouher; Hassani, Mohamed; Martin Peinado, Francisco José; Guettouche, Mohamed Saïd

2018-06-01

Wind erosion is one of the most serious environmental problems in Algeria that threatens human activities and socio-economic development. The main goal of this study is to apply a fuzzy logic approach to wind erosion sensitivity mapping in the Laghouat region, Algeria. Six causative factors, obtained by applying fuzzy membership functions to each used parameter, are considered: soil, vegetation cover, wind factor, soil dryness, land topography and land cover sensitivity. Different fuzzy operators (AND, OR, SUM, PRODUCT, and GAMMA) are applied to generate wind-erosion hazard map. Success rate curves reveal that the fuzzy gamma (γ) operator, with γ equal to 0.9, gives the best prediction accuracy with an area under curve of 85.2%. The resulting wind-erosion sensitivity map delineates the area into different zones of five relative sensitivity classes: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. The estimated result was verified by field measurements and the high statistically significant value of a chi-square test.

Climate change and wind erosion by dust storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wheaton, E.E.; Wittrock, V.

1991-01-01

Dust storms and their associated wind erosion are thought to be almost synonymous with drought. Dust storms have varying impacts including sandblasting and burying crops, wind erosion of soil, health effects and traffic accidents. A comparison of drought periods for southern Saskatchewan with dust storm frequencies for the period 1977-1988 revealed that the worst drought conditions coincided with the greatest April dust storm frequencies, with 1981 having the worst drought, and secondary spring droughts occurring in 1977, 1988, 1980 and 1982, and spring dust storm peaks occurring, in order of magnitude, in 1981, 1977, 1987, and 1982. An increase in atmospheric dust particles may lead to enhanced atmospheric subsidence and associated drought, and could be a positive feedback for drought intensity. Wind erosion potential may rise with rising temperature due to decreased vegetation cover, but the effect might be offset by rising precipitation

Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia plateau

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B.S. Sharratt

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess the impact of climate change on wind erosion in the Columbia Plateau of the Pacific Northwest United States where wind erosion of agricultural lands can cause exceedance of national air quality standards. The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS was used to assess wind erosion and PM10 (particulate matter ≤10 µm in aerodynamic diameter emissions under a future climate projected by downscaling 18 Global Climate Models (GCM for a conservative emissions pathway. Wind erosion simulations were conducted at Lacrosse and Lind, WA and Moro, OR on a winter wheat-summer fallow (WW-SF rotation and at Lind on an additional winter wheat-camelina-summer fallow (WW-Cam-SF rotation. Each rotation was subject to conservation or conventional tillage practices for a baseline (1970–1999 and mid-21st century climate (2035–2064. A significant increase in temperature and nominal increases in precipitation were projected by an ensemble of climate models for the Columbia Plateau by the mid-21st century. Soil and PM10 losses were 25–84% lower for a mid-21st century climate, due in part to greater biomass production associated with CO2 fertilization and warmer temperatures. The reduction in soil and PM10 loss is projected to be more apparent for conservation tillage practices in the future. Soil and PM10 losses were greater from a WW-Cam-SF rotation than WW-SF rotation when conservation tillage practices were employed during the fallow phase of the rotations. Despite accounting for differences in the length of each rotation, annual soil and PM10 losses remained higher for the WW-Cam-SF rotation than the WW-SF rotation. Soil and PM10 losses were more variable across

Soil erosion rates caused by wind and saltating sand stresses in a wind tunnel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ligotke, M.W.

1993-02-01

Wind erosion tests were performed in a wind tunnel in support of the development of long-term protective barriers to cap stabilized waste sites at the Hanford Site. Controlled wind and saltating sand erosive stresses were applied to physical models of barrier surface layers to simulate worst-case eolian erosive stresses. The goal of these tests was to provide information useful to the design and evaluation of the surface layer composition of an arid-region waste site barrier concept that incorporates a deep fine-soil reservoir. A surface layer composition is needed that will form an armor resistant to eolian erosion during periods of extreme dry climatic conditions, especially when such conditions result in the elimination or reduction of vegetation by water deprivation or wildfire. Because of the life span required of Hanford waste barriers, it is important that additional work follow these wind tunnel studies. A modeling effort is planned to aid the interpretation of test results with respect to the suitability of pea gravel to protect the finite-soil reservoir during long periods of climatic stress. It is additionally recommended that wind tunnel tests be continued and field data be obtained at prototype or actual barrier sites. Results wig contribute to barrier design efforts and provide confidence in the design of long-term waste site caps for and regions

Crater Mound Formation by Wind Erosion on Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Steele, L. J.; Kite, E. S.; Michaels, T. I.

2018-01-01

Most of Mars' ancient sedimentary rocks by volume are in wind-eroded sedimentary mounds within impact craters and canyons, but the connections between mound form and wind erosion are unclear. We perform mesoscale simulations of different crater and mound morphologies to understand the formation of sedimentary mounds. As crater depth increases, slope winds produce increased erosion near the base of the crater wall, forming mounds. Peak erosion rates occur when the crater depth is ˜2 km. Mound evolution depends on the size of the host crater. In smaller craters mounds preferentially erode at the top, becoming more squat, while in larger craters mounds become steeper sided. This agrees with observations where smaller craters tend to have proportionally shorter mounds and larger craters have mounds encircled by moats. If a large-scale sedimentary layer blankets a crater, then as the layer recedes across the crater it will erode more toward the edges of the crater, resulting in a crescent-shaped moat. When a 160 km diameter mound-hosting crater is subject to a prevailing wind, the surface wind stress is stronger on the leeward side than on the windward side. This results in the center of the mound appearing to "march upwind" over time and forming a "bat-wing" shape, as is observed for Mount Sharp in Gale crater.

An extreme wind erosion event of the fresh Eyjafjallajökull 2010 volcanic ash.

Science.gov (United States)

Arnalds, Olafur; Thorarinsdottir, Elin Fjola; Thorsson, Johann; Waldhauserova, Pavla Dagsson; Agustsdottir, Anna Maria

2013-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can generate widespread deposits of ash that are subsequently subjected to erosive forces which causes detrimental effects on ecosystems. We measured wind erosion of the freshly deposited Eyjafjallajökull ash at a field site the first summer after the 2010 eruption. Over 30 wind erosion events occurred (June-October) at wind speeds > 10 m s(-1) in each storm with gusts up to 38.7 m s(-1). Surface transport over one m wide transect (surface to 150 cm height) reached > 11,800 kg m(-1) during the most intense storm event with a rate of 1,440 kg m(-1) hr(-1) for about 6½ hrs. This storm is among the most extreme wind erosion events recorded on Earth. The Eyjafjallajökull wind erosion storms caused dust emissions extending several hundred km from the volcano affecting both air quality and ecosystems showing how wind erosion of freshly deposited ash prolongs impacts of volcanic eruptions.

Manufacturing issues which affect coating erosion performance in wind turbine blades

Science.gov (United States)

Cortés, E.; Sánchez, F.; Domenech, L.; Olivares, A.; Young, T. M.; O'Carroll, A.; Chinesta, F.

2017-10-01

Erosion damage, caused by repeated rain droplet impact on the leading edges of wind turbine blades, is a major cause for cost concern. Resin Infusion (RI) is used in wind energy blades where low weight and high mechanical performance materials are demanded. The surface coating plays a crucial role in the manufacturing and performance response. The Leading Edge coating is usually moulded, painted or sprayed onto the blade surface so adequate adhesion in the layers' characterization through the thickness is required for mechanical performance and durability reasons. In the current work, an investigation has been directed into the resulting rain erosion durability of the coating was undertaken through a combination of mass loss testing measurements with manufacturing processing parameter variations. The adhesion and erosion is affected by the shock wave caused by the collapsing water droplet on impact. The stress waves are transmitted to the substrate, so microestructural discontinuities in coating layers and interfaces play a key role on its degradation. Standard industrial systems are based on a multilayer system, with a high number of interfaces that tend to accelerate erosion by delamination. Analytical and numerical models are commonly used to relate lifetime prediction and to identify suitable coating and composite substrate combinations and their potential stress reduction on the interface. In this research, the input parameters for the appropriate definition of the Cohesive Zone Modelling (CZM) of the coating-substrate interface are outlined by means of Pull off testing and Peeling testing results. It allowed one to optimize manufacturing and coating process for blades into a knowledge-based guidance for leading edge coating material development. It was achieved by investigating the erosion degradation process using both numerical and laboratory techniques (Pull off, Peeling and Rain Erosion Testing in a whirling arm rain erosion test facility).

A New Instrument for Testing Wind Erosion by Soil Surface Shape Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hai, C.; Yuan, X.; Jiang, H.; Zhou, R.; Wang, J.; Liu, B.; Ye, Y.; Du, P.

2010-01-01

Wind erosion, a primary cause of soil degeneration, is a problem in arid and semiarid areas throughout the world. Many methods are available to study soil erosion, but there is no an effective method for making quantitative measurements in the field. To solve this problem, we have developed a new instrument that can measure the change in the shape of the soil surface, allowing quick quantification of wind erosion. In this paper, the construction and principle of the new instrument are described. Field experiments are carried out using the instrument, and the data are analyzed. The erosion depth is found to vary by 11% compared to the average for measurement areas ranging from 30 x 30 cm 2 to 10 x 10 cm 2 . The results show that the instrument is convenient and reliable for quantitatively measuring wind erosion in the field.

Response of wind erosion dynamics to climate change and human activity in Inner Mongolia, China during 1990 to 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Haiyan; Fan, Jiangwen; Cao, Wei; Harris, Warwick; Li, Yuzhe; Chi, Wenfeng; Wang, Suizi

2018-10-15

Soil erosion caused by wind is a serious environmental problem that results in land degradation and threatens sustainable development. Accurately evaluating wind erosion dynamics is important for reducing the hazard of wind erosion. Separating the climatic and anthropogenic causes of wind erosion can improve the understanding of its driving mechanisms. Based on meteorological, remote sensing and field observation data, we applied the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) to simulate wind erosion in Inner Mongolia, China from 1990 to 2015. We used the variable control method by input of the average climate conditions to calculate human-induced wind erosion. The difference between natural wind erosion and human-induced wind erosion was determined to assess the effect of climate change on wind erosion. The results showed that the wind erosion modulus had a remarkable decline with a slope of 52.23 t/km 2 /a from 1990 to 2015. During 26 years, the average wind erosion for Inner Mongolia amounted to 63.32 billion tons. Wind erosion showed an overall significant decline of 49.23% and the partial severer erosion hazard significantly increased by 7.11%. Of the significant regional decline, 40.72% was caused by climate changes, and 8.51% was attributed to ecological restoration programs. For the significant regional increases of wind erosion, 4.29% was attributed to climate changes and 2.82% to human activities, mainly overgrazing and land use/cover changes. During the study, the driving forces in Inner Mongolia of wind erosion dynamics differed spatially. Timely monitoring based on multi-source data and highlighting the importance of positive human activities by increasing vegetation coverage for deserts, reducing grazing pressure on grasslands, establishing forests as windbreaks and optimizing crop planting rotations of farmlands can all act to reduce and control wind erosion. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wind erosion in the Sahelian zone of Niger : processes, models, and control techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sterk, G.

1997-01-01

In the Sahelian zone of Niger, severe wind erosion occurs mainly in the first half of the rainy season (May - July), when violent winds preceding thunderstorms result in intense sediment transport. Quantification of this wind erosion is difficult due to a high degree of temporal and spatial

Effect of vegetation cover and transitions on regional wind erosion in drylands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Youssef, I.F.

2012-01-01

Wind erosion is a critical environmental problem that threatens mainly the arid and semi-arid regions of our planet. Usually this problem is associated with desertification, poverty and other environmental and socioeconomic problems. Wind erosion causes the loss of fertile topsoil, and has a

Farmers' perceptions of erosion by wind and water in northern Burkina Faso

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, S.M.; Leenders, J.K.; Leeuwis, M.

2003-01-01

Wind and water erosion are widespread phenomena throughout the Sahel, especially in the early rainy season, when high-intensity rainstorms are often preceded by severe windstorms. This paper describes the results of a survey on the farmers' perceptions of wind and water erosion processes and control

Wind Erosion Processes and Control Techniques in the Sahelian Zone of Niger

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sterk, G.; Stroosnijder, L.; Raats, P.A.C.

1999-01-01

Wind Erosion Processes and Control Techniques in the Sahelian Zone of Niger G. Sterk, L. Stroosnijder, and P.A.C. Raats Abstract The objective of this paper is to present the main results and conclusions from three years of field research on wind erosion processes and control techniques in the

Early-season wind erosion influenced by soil-incorporated green manure in the Pacific Northwest

Science.gov (United States)

Management strategies are sought to minimize wind erosion of irrigated agricultural soils along the Columbia River of the Inland Pacific Northwest, particularly during the early season (March-April) when high winds coincide with sowing of vegetable crops. Early-season wind erosion potential from soi...

The National Wind Erosion Research Network: Building a standardized long-term data resource for aeolian research, modeling and land management

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Van Zee, Justin W; Courtright, Ericha M; Hugenholtz, Ted M; Zobeck, Ted M; Okin, Gregory S.; Barchyn, Thomas E; Billings, Benjamin J; Boyd, Robert A.; Clingan, Scott D; Cooper, Brad F; Duniway, Michael C.; Derner, Justin D.; Fox, Fred A; Havstad, Kris M.; Heilman, Philip; LaPlante, Valerie; Ludwig, Noel A; Metz, Loretta J; Nearing, Mark A; Norfleet, M Lee; Pierson, Frederick B; Sanderson, Matt A; Sharrat, Brenton S; Steiner, Jean L; Tatarko, John; Tedela, Negussie H; Todelo, David; Unnasch, Robert S; Van Pelt, R Scott; Wagner, Larry

2016-01-01

The National Wind Erosion Research Network was established in 2014 as a collaborative effort led by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the United States Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management, to address the need for a long-term research program to meet critical challenges in wind erosion research and management in the United States. The Network has three aims: (1) provide data to support understanding of basic aeolian processes across land use types, land cover types, and management practices, (2) support development and application of models to assess wind erosion and dust emission and their impacts on human and environmental systems, and (3) encourage collaboration among the aeolian research community and resource managers for the transfer of wind erosion technologies. The Network currently consists of thirteen intensively instrumented sites providing measurements of aeolian sediment transport rates, meteorological conditions, and soil and vegetation properties that influence wind erosion. Network sites are located across rangelands, croplands, and deserts of the western US. In support of Network activities, http://winderosionnetwork.org was developed as a portal for information about the Network, providing site descriptions, measurement protocols, and data visualization tools to facilitate collaboration with scientists and managers interested in the Network and accessing Network products. The Network provides a mechanism for engaging national and international partners in a wind erosion research program that addresses the need for improved understanding and prediction of aeolian processes across complex and diverse land use types and management practices.

Wind erosion potential of a winter wheat-summer fallow rotation after land application of biosolids

Science.gov (United States)

Pi, Huawei; Sharratt, Brenton; Schillinger, William F.; Bary, Andrew I.; Cogger, Craig G.

2018-06-01

Conservation tillage is a viable management strategy to control soil wind erosion, but other strategies such as land application of biosolids that enhance soil quality may also reduce wind erosion. No studies have determined the effects of biosolids on wind erosion. Wind erosion potential of a silt loam was assessed using a portable wind tunnel after applying synthetic and biosolids fertilizer to traditional (disk) and conservation (undercutter) tillage practices during the summer fallow phase of a winter wheat-summer fallow (WW-SF) rotation in 2015 and 2016 in east-central Washington. Soil loss ranged from 12 to 61% lower for undercutter than disk tillage, possibly due to retention of more biomass on the soil surface of the undercutter versus disk tillage treatment. In contrast, soil loss was similar to or lower for biosolids as compared with synthetic fertilizer treatment. Our results suggest that biosolids applications to agricultural lands will have minimal impact on wind erosion.

Wind Erosion Induced Soil Degradation in Northern China: Status, Measures and Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongling Guo

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Soil degradation is one of the most serious ecological problems in the world. In arid and semi-arid northern China, soil degradation predominantly arises from wind erosion. Trends in soil degradation caused by wind erosion in northern China frequently change with human activities and climatic change. To decrease soil loss by wind erosion and enhance local ecosystems, the Chinese government has been encouraging residents to reduce wind-induced soil degradation through a series of national policies and several ecological projects, such as the Natural Forest Protection Program, the National Action Program to Combat Desertification, the “Three Norths” Shelter Forest System, the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Engineering Project, and the Grain for Green Project. All these were implemented a number of decades ago, and have thus created many land management practices and control techniques across different landscapes. These measures include conservation tillage, windbreak networks, checkerboard barriers, the Non-Watering and Tube-Protecting Planting Technique, afforestation, grassland enclosures, etc. As a result, the aeolian degradation of land has been controlled in many regions of arid and semiarid northern China. However, the challenge of mitigating and further reversing soil degradation caused by wind erosion still remains.

WIND EROSION INTENSITY DETERMINATION USING SOIL PARTICLE CATCHER DEVICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lenka Lackóová

2013-12-01

Full Text Available To analyze wind erosion events in the real terrain conditions, we proposed to construct a prototype of soil particle catcher devices to trap soil particles. With these devices we are able to measure the intensity of wind erosion at six different heights above the soil surface in one location or at three different heights in two places. It is possible to use them for six different places at the same time as well. We performed field measurements to determine the amount of soil particles transported by the wind between 26th – 31st March 2012. Each measuring took 60 minutes. After this time the soil particle catchers were emptied and further measurements carried out. At the beginning we selected two places for measurement (soil HPJ 16 and 37 at two heights, one above the other. Then we used two measuring systems 40 m apart at two sites (D2 and D4 and the soil captured at two heights (0, 1. The maximum weight of soil particles trapped in measuring system D2 at height (0 was 1242.7 g at a wind speed of 9.6 ms-1. At measurement height (1 the maximum weight was 72.7 g trapped at the same average hourly rate, but during different measurement events. The measuring system at D4 trapped the highest amount of soil at a wind speed of 8.9 ms-1 (1141.7 g at height (0 and at a speed of 9.3 ms-1 (22.3 g at height (1. During the measurements with the two basic measuring systems D4 and D2, we measured the wind erosion intensity together with soil particle catchers D1 and D3. D3 was placed between devices D4 and D2, D1 was 20 m ahead D2. Soil particle catchers were placed on the soil surface at height position (0. We measured increasing soil erosion downwind on four locations spaced at 20 m. The results show that with there is an increasing quantity of particles collected as the erosive surface length increases, due to the so-called snowball effect. We analyzed selected trapped soil samples in order to determine the size of the soil particles and their proportion

The combined effect of wind and rain on interrill erosion processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erpul, G.; Gabriels, D.; Norton, L.D.

2004-01-01

flow-driven process begins to transport the detached soil particles. This is different from the approach of recent interrill erosion models that soil detached by the rain splash will be subsequently transported by overland flow. The results of the study showed that, when compared to the contribution of the flow-driven transport, the contribution of the rain splash transport was significant to the extent that it should not be neglected in accurately predicting water erosion from interrill areas under wind-driven rains

Wind erosion potential of a winter wheat–summer fallow rotation after land application of biosolids

Science.gov (United States)

While land application of biosolids is recognized as a sustainable management practice for enhancing soil health, no studies have determined the effects of biosolids on soil wind erosion. Wind erosion potential of a silt loam was assessed using a portable wind tunnel after applying synthetic and bio...

Wind erosion control with scattered vegetation in the Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leenders, J.K.

2006-01-01

The Sahelian zone ofAfricais the region that is globally most subjected to land degradation, with wind erosion being the most important soil degradation process. By using control measures, the negative effects of wind erosion can be reduced. At present, adoption of

Wind driven erosion and the effects of particulate electrification

Science.gov (United States)

Merrison, J. P.; Bak, E.; Finster, K.; Gunnlaugsson, H. P.; Holstein-Rathlou, C.; Knak Jensen, S.; Nørnberg, P.; Rasmussen, K. R.

2012-09-01

Several related aspects of Aeolian activity are presently being studied in the laboratory, the most recent advances in this field will be presented. These include simulating wind driven erosion in the laboratory, quantifying erosion rates and the study of mineral change due to mechanical activation. Also advances in our understanding of the electrification of sand/dust particles is being made and how this phenomenon affects their behavior.

Soil deflation analyses from wind erosion events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lenka Lackóová

2015-09-01

Full Text Available There are various methods to assess soil erodibility for wind erosion. This paper focuses on aggregate analysis by a laser particle sizer ANALYSETTE 22 (FRITSCH GmbH, made to determine the size distribution of soil particles detached by wind (deflated particles. Ten soil samples, trapped along the same length of the erosion surface (150–155 m but at different wind speeds, were analysed. The soil was sampled from a flat, smooth area without vegetation cover or soil crust, not affected by the impact of windbreaks or other barriers, from a depth of maximum 2.5 cm. Prior to analysis the samples were prepared according to the relevant specifications. An experiment was also conducted using a device that enables characterisation of the vertical movement of the deflated material. The trapped samples showed no differences in particle size and the proportions of size fractions at different hourly average wind speeds. It was observed that most of particles travelling in saltation mode (size 50–500 μm – 58–70% – moved vertically up to 26 cm above the soil surface. At greater heights, particles moving in suspension mode (floating in the air; size < 100 μm accounted for up to 90% of the samples. This result suggests that the boundary between the two modes of the vertical movement of deflated soil particles lies at about 25 cm above the soil surface.

The Dust Storm Index (DSI): A method for monitoring broadscale wind erosion using meteorological records

Science.gov (United States)

O'Loingsigh, T.; McTainsh, G. H.; Tews, E. K.; Strong, C. L.; Leys, J. F.; Shinkfield, P.; Tapper, N. J.

2014-03-01

Wind erosion of soils is a natural process that has shaped the semi-arid and arid landscapes for millennia. This paper describes the Dust Storm Index (DSI); a methodology for monitoring wind erosion using Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) meteorological observational data since the mid-1960s (long-term), at continental scale. While the 46 year length of the DSI record is its greatest strength from a wind erosion monitoring perspective, there are a number of technical challenges to its use because when the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recording protocols were established the use of the data for wind erosion monitoring was never intended. Data recording and storage protocols are examined, including the effects of changes to the definition of how observers should interpret and record dust events. A method is described for selecting the 180 long-term ABM stations used in this study and the limitations of variable observation frequencies between stations are in part resolved. The rationale behind the DSI equation is explained and the examples of temporal and spatial data visualisation products presented include; a long term national wind erosion record (1965-2011), continental DSI maps, and maps of the erosion event types that are factored into the DSI equation. The DSI is tested against dust concentration data and found to provide an accurate representation of wind erosion activity. As the ABM observational records used here were collected according to WMO protocols, the DSI methodology could be used in all countries with WMO-compatible meteorological observation and recording systems.

Soil erosion rates from mixed soil and gravel surfaces in a wind tunnel: A preliminary report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ligotke, M.W.

1988-12-01

Tests of wind erosion were performed in a controlled-environment wind tunnel to support the development of natural-material protective barriers for long-term isolation of radioactive waste. Barrier performance standards currently being developed for internal and external barrier performance are expected to mandate a surface layer that is resistant to wind erosion. The purpose of this study was to initiate a series of tests to determine suitable soil and gravel mixtures for such a barrier and to test worst-case surface layer conditions under the influence of high wind speeds. Six mixed soil and gravel surfaces were prepared, weathered to represent natural wind-blown desert areas, and subjected to controlled wind erosion forces in a wind tunnel. The applied erosive forces, including surface shear forces, were characterized to provide a means of relating wind tunnel results with actual field conditions. Soil particle losses from the surfaces caused by suspension, saltation, and surface creep were monitored by aerosol sample probes and mass balance measurements. 23 refs., 22 figs., 3 tabs

Soil tillage and windbreak effects on millet and cowpea: I. Wind speed, evaporation, and wind erosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banzhaf, J.; Leihner, D.E.; Buerkert, A.; Serafini, P.G.

1992-01-01

Deforestation, overgrazing, and declining soil regeneration periods have resulted in increased wind erosion problems in dry areas of the West African Sahel, but little is known about the bio-physical factors involved. This research was conducted to determine the effects of ridging and four different windbreak spacings on wind erosion, potential evaporation, and soil water reserves. A field trial was conducted from 1985 to 1987 on 12 ha of a Psammentic Paleustalf in Southern Niger. Millet, Pennisetum glaucum (L.), and cowpea, Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp., were seeded in strips on flat and ridged soil. Windbreaks of savannah vegetation were spaced at 6, 20, 40, and 90 m. The effects of ridging on wind speed, evaporation, and wind erosion were small and mostly non-significant. However, average wind speed at 0.3 m above ground in the center of cowpea and millet strips was significantly reduced from 2.8 to 2.1 m s -1 as windbreak distances narrowed from 90 to 6 m. As a consequence, potential evaporation declined by 15% and the amount of windblown soil particles by 50% in ridged and by 70% in flat treatments. Despite reduced potential evaporation, average subsoil water reserves were 14 mm smaller in the 6- than in the 20-m windbreak spacing indicating excessive water extraction by the windbreak vegetation. Thus, establishing windbreaks with natural savannah vegetation may require a careful consideration of the agronomic benefits and costs to competing crops. 21 refs., 5 figs

Mapping wind erosion hazard in Australia using MODIS-derived ground cover, soil moisture and climate data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, X; Leys, J

2014-01-01

This paper describes spatial modeling methods to identify wind erosion hazard (WEH) areas across Australia using the recently available time-series products of satellite-derived ground cover, soil moisture and wind speed. We implemented the approach and data sets in a geographic information system to produce WEH maps for Australia at 500 m ground resolution on a monthly basis for the recent thirteen year period (2000–2012). These maps reveal the significant wind erosion hazard areas and their dynamic tendencies at paddock and regional scales. Dust measurements from the DustWatch network were used to validate the model and interpret the dust source areas. The modeled hazard areas and changes were compared with results from a rule-set approach and the Computational Environmental Management System (CEMSYS) model. The study demonstrates that the time series products of ground cover, soil moisture and wind speed can be jointly used to identify landscape erodibility and to map seasonal changes of wind erosion hazard across Australia. The time series wind erosion hazard maps provide detailed and useful information to assist in better targeting areas for investments and continuous monitoring, evaluation and reporting that will lead to reduced wind erosion and improved soil condition

Dryland Degradation by wind erosion and its control

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sterk, G.; Riksen, M.; Goossens, D.

2001-01-01

Global population growth, is expected to impose an increasing pressure on agricultural production in the world's drylands, which cover approximately 41␘f the continental area. The land resources in drylands are severely threatened by soil degradation, with wind erosion being, one of the major

Predicción de la erosión eólica potencial con el modelo EWEQ en dos suelos loesicos: efectos de las condiciones climáticas Wind erosion prediction with the EWEQ model in two loess soils: effects of climatic condition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia Beatriz Aimar

2011-12-01

Full Text Available La erosión eólica potencial del suelo (EEP es un dato básico utilizado en varios modelos de predicción para calcular la erosión eólica de suelos agrícolas. El objetivo de este estudio fue cuantificar la EEP de un Haplustol y un Ustipsammente de la Región Semiárida Pampeana (RSP y compararla con las predicciones del modelo Ecuación de Erosión Eólica en Español (EWEQ, realizadas con diferentes factores climáticos (C. Se efectuaron mediciones de EEP a campo durante un año en ambos suelos, mantenidos sin cobertura y con mínima rugosidad. Los resultados indicaron que la EEP medida a campo fue mayor en el Ustipsammente (270 Mg ha-1 año-1 que en el Haplustol (40 Mg ha-1 año -1 , con una reducción en el espesor del horizonte de 21,3 y 3,1 mm, respectivamente. La erosión del Ustipsammente fue dos veces mayor en primavera-verano que en otoño-invierno. Este efecto no se observó en el Haplustol, debido a su menor desecamiento y mayores contenidos de humedad luego de las lluvias. La erosión del Haplustol, por desecarse más lentamente luego de una lluvia, fue más condicionada por las precipitaciones que la del Ustipsammente. Un 40% de la erosión de ambos suelos fue definida por la duración de las tormentas. Las tasas de erosión (EEP por unidad de tiempo, Qt se correlacionaron positivamente con la velocidad promedio del viento (V, ajustando a una función polinómica en ambos suelos. A la misma V, Qt fue siempre mayor en el Ustipsammente. La EEP calculada con la EWEQ, utilizando el factor C correspondiente al año de muestreo (30,3, fue la más semejante a la erosión medida a campo, aunque el modelo la subestimó en un 43% en el Haplustol y en un 18% en el Ustipsammente. La EWEQ deberá ofrecer al usuario distintos factores C para poder predecir EEP en escenarios climáticos variables.The potential wind erosion of a soil (EEP is a basic data for predicting wind erosion of agricultural soils in most wind erosion prediction models

Wind born(e) landscapes: the role of wind erosion in agricultural land management and nature development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Riksen, M.J.P.M.

2006-01-01

Wind has played an important role in the geological development of the north-western Europe. Various aeolian deposits such as inland dunes, river dunes, cover sands, drift sands and coastal dunes, form the base of large areas in our present landscape. The role of wind erosion in today's north-west

Wind erosion on Deliblato (the largest European continental sandy terrain) studied using 210Pbex and 137Cs measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krmar, M.; Hansman, J.; Todorovic, N.; Mihailovic, A.; Vucinic-Vasic, M.; Savic, R.

2015-01-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the difference in wind erosion between two extreme situations: sandy soil permanently covered by grass and the nearby frequently ploughed area highly susceptible to wind erosion. The spatial pattern of soil erosion rate was investigated using 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex tracing technique. The spatial pattern of erosion rate obtained within the studied area reveal influence of topography as well as direction of prevailing winds on mobilization and transport of the soil particles. (author)

Wind erosion of waste impoundments in arid climates and mitigation of dust pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Blight, G E

2008-12-01

Wind can erode and disperse fine-grained material from an impoundment of mining, industrial or municipal waste that stands above the level of its surroundings. Such dust dispersion can be a serious nuisance as well as a health hazard to inhabitants and animals in nearby settlements. It can also degrade crops, making them less marketable, and pollute soil, surface water and ground water. Wind can seasonally erode waste impoundments in all types of climate, but the erosion intensifies and persists for more of each year as regional aridity increases. As clouds of dust are often observed billowing across the top surfaces of waste impoundments in dry windy weather, there is a common misconception that dust arises from erosion of the top surface of an impoundment, resulting in much effort and money being misspent on top treatments when in fact the sloped sides of the impoundments are the true source of blown dust. This paper offers a brief review of general waste impoundment wind erosion issues and then focuses in more detail on the mechanics of how wind erodes surfaces of waste impoundments. Recommendations are offered for mitigating the effects of wind-eroded dust.

Environmental risks associated to wind erosion in a metal mining area from SE Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia Fernandez, G.; Romero Diaz, A.

2009-01-01

Soils and mining wastes from the Mediterranean mining area placed in the Sierra Minera Mountains are highly enriched in heavy metals such as lead and zinc, but also other metals such as cadmium and arsenic. Wind erosion in this area could be considered extremely high and hazards associated to this eroded sediments seems to be high because the huge amount of metals present in this wastes. Therefore, combination of high erosion rates and high metal concentration in this mining waste, make those environmental risks can be considered high for the surrounding ecosystems, but also for public health of the nearby villages and towns. In order, to study these wind erosion processes over these mining materials, some experiments for the evaluation of the transportation of soil particles were carried out. Erosion rates in this realm is particularly important during spring months, when increased activity of the eastern winds brings intense soil dragging, with strong effects on the metals dispersion, including the massive removal of sediments. (Author) 16 refs.

Environmental risks associated to wind erosion in a metal mining area from SE Spain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia Fernandez, G.; Romero Diaz, A.

2009-07-01

Soils and mining wastes from the Mediterranean mining area placed in the Sierra Minera Mountains are highly enriched in heavy metals such as lead and zinc, but also other metals such as cadmium and arsenic. Wind erosion in this area could be considered extremely high and hazards associated to this eroded sediments seems to be high because the huge amount of metals present in this wastes. Therefore, combination of high erosion rates and high metal concentration in this mining waste, make those environmental risks can be considered high for the surrounding ecosystems, but also for public health of the nearby villages and towns. In order, to study these wind erosion processes over these mining materials, some experiments for the evaluation of the transportation of soil particles were carried out. Erosion rates in this realm is particularly important during spring months, when increased activity of the eastern winds brings intense soil dragging, with strong effects on the metals dispersion, including the massive removal of sediments. (Author) 16 refs.

Literature review of models for estimating soil erosion and deposition from wind stresses on uranium-mill-tailings covers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bander, T.J.

1982-11-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is investigating the use of a rock armoring blanket (riprap) to mitigate wind and water erosion of an earthen radon-suppression cover applied to uranium-mill tailings. The mechanics of wind erosion, as well as of soil deposition, are discussed in this report. Several wind erosion models are reviewed to determine if they can be used to estimate the erosion of soil from a mill-tailings cover. One model, developed by W.S. Chepil, contains the most-important factors that describe variables that influence wind erosion. Particular features of other models are also discussed, as well as the application of Chepil's model to a particular tailings pile. For this particular tailings pile, the estimated erosion was almost one inch per year for an unprotected tailings soil surface. Wide variability in the deposition velocity and lack of adequate deposition models preclude reliable estimates of the rate at which airborne particles are deposited

Literature review of models for estimating soil erosion and deposition from wind stresses on uranium-mill-tailings covers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bander, T.J.

1982-11-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is investigating the use of a rock armoring blanket (riprap) to mitigate wind and water erosion of an earthen radon-suppression cover applied to uranium-mill tailings. The mechanics of wind erosion, as well as of soil deposition, are discussed in this report. Several wind erosion models are reviewed to determine if they can be used to estimate the erosion of soil from a mill-tailings cover. One model, developed by W.S. Chepil, contains the most-important factors that describe variables that influence wind erosion. Particular features of other models are also discussed, as well as the application of Chepil's model to a particular tailings pile. For this particular tailings pile, the estimated erosion was almost one inch per year for an unprotected tailings soil surface. Wide variability in the deposition velocity and lack of adequate deposition models preclude reliable estimates of the rate at which airborne particles are deposited.

Crop production and economic loss due to wind erosion in hot arid ecosystem of India

Science.gov (United States)

Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, P. C.; Kumar, Mahesh; Soni, M. L.; Pandey, C. B.; Chaudhari, S. K.; Sikka, A. K.

2017-10-01

Wind erosion is a severe land degradation process in hot arid western India and affects the agricultural production system. It affects crop yield directly by damaging the crops through abrasion, burial, dust deposition etc. and indirectly by reducing soil fertility. In this study, an attempt was made to quantify the indirect impact of wind erosion process on crop production loss and associated economic loss in hot arid ecosystem of India. It has been observed that soil loss due to wind erosion varies from minimum 1.3 t ha-1 to maximum 83.3 t ha-1 as per the severity. Yield loss due to wind erosion was found maximum for groundnut (Arachis hypogea) (5-331 kg ha-1 yr-1), whereas minimum for moth bean (Vigna aconitifolia) (1-93 kg ha-1 yr-1). For pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum), which covers a major portion of arable lands in western Rajasthan, the yield loss was found 3-195 kg ha-1 yr-1. Economic loss was found higher for groundnut and clusterbean (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) than rest crops, which are about

Wind erosion research at an uranium mill tailings site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sehmel, G.A.

1977-07-01

A uranium mill tailings pile at Grants, New Mexico, was selected for wind erosion research since the configuration provides flat area containing fine sand and made up of larger particles. The wind erosion experiment is discussed. Experimental equipment consists of meteorological instrumentation to automatically activate air samplers as a function of wind speed increments and direction, particle cascade impactors to measure airborne respirable concentrations as a function of particle size, inertial impaction devices to measure nonrespirable fluxes of airborne particles, a virtual particle cascade impactor to measure airborne concentrations of toxic trace elements, and soil depth gauges to measure changes in surface soil elevations as a function of time. Both radioactive particles as well as toxic trace element concentrations are measured. Radioactive particles are measured with both particle cascade impactors as well as high-volume air samplers. In contrast, toxic trace element airborne concentrations are measured only with a two-stage virtual particle cascade impactor. Fluxes of nonrespirable airborne particles are measured with inertial impaction devices. At particle cascade impactor sites, a rotating cyclone preseparator collects nonrespirable particles. In addition at all sites, fluxes of nonrespirable particles are measured using an open cavity inertial impaction device

Ice-Release and Erosion Resistant Materials for Wind Turbines

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wei; Brinn, Cameron; Cook, Alex; Pascual-Marquez, Fernando

2017-11-01

Icing conditions may cause wind turbine generators to partially lose productivity or to be completely shut down to avoid structural damage. At present, commercially available technologies to mitigate this problem consist of expensive, energy hungry heating elements, which costs roughly 70,000 euro per medium size turbine. Conventional passive ice protection coating systems heavily rely on delicate surface structures and expensive materials to create water repellent superhydrophobic / low surface energy surfaces, which have been proven to be ineffective against ice accumulation. The lack of performance among conventional ice protection materials stems from a flaw in the approach to the problem: failure to recognize that water in its liquid form (WATER) and water in its solid form (ICE) are two different things. Something that works for WATER does not automatically work for ICE. Another reason is that many superhydrophobic materials are often reliant upon often fragile micro-structured surfaces to achieve their intended effects. This paper discusses a fundamentally different approach to the creation of a robust, low cost, durable, and multifunctional materials for ice release and erosion resistance. This National Science Foundation sponsored ice-release coating technology holds promise for protecting wind turbine blades and towers, thus potentially increasing reliability for power generation under icing conditions. Because of the vulnerability of wind turbine blades to ice buildup and erosion damages, wind farm facilities stand to reap considerable benefits.

Using Cesium-137 technique to study the characteristics of different aspect of soil erosion in the Wind-water Erosion Crisscross Region on Loess Plateau of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Mian; Li Zhanbin; Liu Puling; Yao Wenyi

2005-01-01

The most serious soil erosion on Loess Plateau exists in the Wind-water Erosion Crisscross Region. In the past 20 years, the types and intensity of soil erosion and its temporal and spatial distribution were studied, but studies on the difference of soil erosion between slope aspects and slope positions in this area have no report. However, it is very important to analyze and evaluate quantitatively the characteristics of different aspects and positions of soil loss for the prevention and treatment of soil erosion in this area. The spatial pattern of net soil loss on 4 downslope transects in four aspects (east, west, south and north) on a typical Mao (round loess mound) in Liudaogou catchment in Wind-water Erosion Crisscross Region was measured in 2000 using the resident cesium-137 deficit technique. The purposes of this investigation were undertaken to determine whether or not 137 Cs measurement would give a useful indication of the extent of soil loss and their characteristics from cultivated hillsides in different slope aspect and slope position in the study area. The results showed that the difference of soil erosion in different aspect was significant and the erosion rate was in this order: north>east>south>west. Compared with other areas, the difference of erosion rate between north hillside and south hillside was on the contrary, and the possible explanations could be the effect of wind erosion. Also, the percentage of wind erosion was estimated to be at least larger than 18% of total soil loss by comparing the difference of erosion amount in south hillside and north hillside. The erosion rates on different slope positions in all aspects were also different, the highest net soil loss occurred in the lower slope position, and the upper and middle slope positions were slight. The general trend of net soil loss on sloping surface was to increase in fluctuation with increasing downslope distance

Using Cesium-137 technique to study the characteristics of different aspect of soil erosion in the Wind-water Erosion Crisscross Region on Loess Plateau of China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li Mian E-mail: hnli-mian@163.com; Li Zhanbin; Liu Puling; Yao Wenyi

2005-01-01

The most serious soil erosion on Loess Plateau exists in the Wind-water Erosion Crisscross Region. In the past 20 years, the types and intensity of soil erosion and its temporal and spatial distribution were studied, but studies on the difference of soil erosion between slope aspects and slope positions in this area have no report. However, it is very important to analyze and evaluate quantitatively the characteristics of different aspects and positions of soil loss for the prevention and treatment of soil erosion in this area. The spatial pattern of net soil loss on 4 downslope transects in four aspects (east, west, south and north) on a typical Mao (round loess mound) in Liudaogou catchment in Wind-water Erosion Crisscross Region was measured in 2000 using the resident cesium-137 deficit technique. The purposes of this investigation were undertaken to determine whether or not {sup 137}Cs measurement would give a useful indication of the extent of soil loss and their characteristics from cultivated hillsides in different slope aspect and slope position in the study area. The results showed that the difference of soil erosion in different aspect was significant and the erosion rate was in this order: north>east>south>west. Compared with other areas, the difference of erosion rate between north hillside and south hillside was on the contrary, and the possible explanations could be the effect of wind erosion. Also, the percentage of wind erosion was estimated to be at least larger than 18% of total soil loss by comparing the difference of erosion amount in south hillside and north hillside. The erosion rates on different slope positions in all aspects were also different, the highest net soil loss occurred in the lower slope position, and the upper and middle slope positions were slight. The general trend of net soil loss on sloping surface was to increase in fluctuation with increasing downslope distance.

Evaluation of chemical stabilizers and windscreens for wind erosion control of uranium mill tailings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elmore, M.R.; Hartley, J.N.

1984-08-01

Potential wind erosion of uranium mill tailings is a concern for the surface disposal of tailings at uranium mills. Wind-blown tailings may subsequently be redeposited on areas outside the impoundment. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is investigating techniques for fugitive dust control at uranium mill tailings piles. Laboratory tests, including wind tunnel studies, were conducted to evaluate the relative effectiveness of 43 chemical stabilizers. Seventeen of the more promising stabilizers were applied to test plots on a uranium tailings pile at the American Nuclear Corporation-Gas Hills Project mill site in central Wyoming. The durabilities of these materials under actual site conditions were evaluated over time. In addition, field testing of commercially available windscreens was conducted. Test panels were constructed of eight different materials at the Wyoming test site to compare their durability. A second test site was established near PNL to evaluate the effectiveness of windscreens at reducing wind velocity, and thereby reduce the potential for wind erosion of mill tailings. Results of the laboratory land field tests of the chemical stabilizers and windscreens are presented, along with costs versus effectiveness of these techniques for control of wind erosion at mill tailings piles. 12 references, 4 figures, 6 tables

Leading edge erosion of coated wind turbine blades: Review of coating life models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Slot, H.M.; Gelinck, E.R.M.; Rentrop, A.; van der Heide, Emile

2015-01-01

Erosion of the leading edge of wind turbine blades by droplet impingement wear, reduces blade aerodynamic efficiency and power output. Eventually, it compromises the integrity of blade surfaces. Elastomeric coatings are currently used for erosion resistance, yet the life of such coatings cannot be

Dust emission and soil loss due to anthropogenic activities by wind erosion simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Katra, Itzhak; Swet, Nitzan; Tanner, Smadar

2017-04-01

Wind erosion is major process of soil loss and air pollution by dust emission of clays, nutrients, and microorganisms. Many soils throughout the world are currently or potentially associated with dust emissions, especially in dryland zones. The research focuses on wind erosion in semi-arid soils (Northern Negev, Israel) that are subjected to increased human activities of urban development and agriculture. A boundary-layer wind tunnel has been used to study dust emission and soil loss by simulation and quantification of high-resolution wind processes. Field experiments were conducted in various surface types of dry loess soils. The experimental plots represent soils with long-term and short term influences of land uses such as agriculture (conventional and organic practices), grazing, and natural preserves. The wind tunnel was operated under various wind velocities that are above the threshold velocity of aeolian erosion. Total soil sediment and particulate matter (PM) fluxes were calculated. Topsoil samples from the experimental plots were analysed in the laboratory for physical and chemical characteristics including aggregation, organic matter, and high-resolution particle size distribution. The results showed variations in dust emission in response to surface types and winds to provide quantitative estimates of soil loss over time. Substantial loss of particulate matter that is < 10 micrometer in diameter, including clays and nutrients, was recorded in most experimental conditions. Integrative analyses of the topsoil properties and dust experiment highlight the significant implications for soil nutrient resources and management strategies as well as for PM loading to the atmosphere and air pollution.

Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is 100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of

Ecological site‐based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Nicholas P; Herrick, Jeffrey E; Duniway, Michael C

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation, or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explored how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting, and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass–succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 ha). We identified vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area could be effectively controlled when bare ground cover was 100 cm in length was less than ∼35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the

An index guiding temporal planting policies for wind erosion reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhao, C.X.; Zheng, D.W.; Stigter, C.J.; He, W.Q.; Tuo, D.B.; Zhao, P.

2006-01-01

Vegetation cover has spatial as well as temporal characteristics, but the latter are often neglected. Temporal cover characteristics were explored to recommend planting policies for returning arable land into land better protected from serious wind erosion during late autumn, winter, and

Remote sensing of land use/cover changes and its effect on wind erosion potential in southern Iran

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rezaei, Mahrooz; Sameni, Abdolmajid; Fallah Shamsi, Seyed Rashid; Bartholomeus, Harm

2016-01-01

Wind erosion is a complex process influenced by different factors. Most of these factors are stable over time, but land use/cover and land management practices are changing gradually. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of changing land use/cover and land management on wind erosion

The development of U. S. soil erosion prediction and modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John M. Laflen

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Soil erosion prediction technology began over 70 years ago when Austin Zingg published a relationship between soil erosion (by water and land slope and length, followed shortly by a relationship by Dwight Smith that expanded this equation to include conservation practices. But, it was nearly 20 years before this work's expansion resulted in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, perhaps the foremost achievement in soil erosion prediction in the last century. The USLE has increased in application and complexity, and its usefulness and limitations have led to the development of additional technologies and new science in soil erosion research and prediction. Main among these new technologies is the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP model, which has helped to overcome many of the shortcomings of the USLE, and increased the scale over which erosion by water can be predicted. Areas of application of erosion prediction include almost all land types: urban, rural, cropland, forests, rangeland, and construction sites. Specialty applications of WEPP include prediction of radioactive material movement with soils at a superfund cleanup site, and near real-time daily estimation of soil erosion for the entire state of Iowa.

Wind erosion potential influenced by tillage in an irrigated potato-sweet corn rotation in the Columbia Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Wind erosion is a concern within the Columbia Basin of the Inland Pacific Northwest (PNW) United States due to the sandy texture of soils and small amount of residue retained on the soil surface after harvest of vegetable crops like potato. This study assessed potential wind erosion of an irrigated ...

Wind Erosion Caused by Land Use Changes Significantly Reduces Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Carbon Sequestration Potentials in Grassland

Science.gov (United States)

Li, P.; Chi, Y. G.; Wang, J.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Wind erosion exerts a fundamental influence on the biotic and abiotic processes associated with ecosystem carbon (C) cycle. However, how wind erosion under different land use scenarios will affect ecosystem C balance and its capacity for future C sequestration are poorly quantified. Here, we established an experiment in a temperate steppe in Inner Mongolia, and simulated different intensity of land uses: control, 50% of aboveground vegetation removal (50R), 100% vegetation removal (100R) and tillage (TI). We monitored lateral and vertical carbon flux components and soil characteristics from 2013 to 2016. Our study reveals three key findings relating to the driving factors, the magnitude and consequence of wind erosion on ecosystem C balance: (1) Frequency of heavy wind exerts a fundamental control over the severity of soil erosion, and its interaction with precipitation and vegetation characteristics explained 69% variation in erosion intensity. (2) With increases in land use intensity, the lateral C flux induced by wind erosion increased rapidly, equivalent to 33%, 86%, 111% and 183% of the net ecosystem exchange of the control site under control, 50R, 100R and TI sites, respectively. (3) After three years' treatment, erosion induced decrease in fine fractions led to 31%, 43%, 85% of permanent loss of C sequestration potential in the surface 5cm soil for 50R, 100R and TI sites. Overall, our study demonstrates that lateral C flux associated with wind erosion is too large to be ignored. The loss of C-enriched fine particles not only reduces current ecosystem C content, but also results in irreversible loss of future soil C sequestration potential. The dynamic soil characteristics need be considered when projecting future ecosystem C balance in aeolian landscape. We also propose that to maintain the sustainability of grassland ecosystems, land managers should focus on implementing appropriate land use rather than rely on subsequent managements on degraded soils.

Evaluation of the RWEQ and SWEEP in simulating soil and PM10 loss from a portable wind tunnel

Science.gov (United States)

Wind erosion threatens sustainable agriculture and environmental quality in the Columbia Plateau region of the US Pacific Northwest. Wind erosion models such as Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) have been developed as tools for identifying practices t...

The Current State of Predicting Furrow Irrigation Erosion

Science.gov (United States)

There continues to be a need to predict furrow irrigation erosion to estimate on- and off-site impacts of irrigation management. The objective of this paper is to review the current state of furrow erosion prediction technology considering four models: SISL, WEPP, WinSRFR and APEX. SISL is an empiri...

Numerical Modelling and Prediction of Erosion Induced by Hydrodynamic Cavitation

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, A.; Lantermann, U.; el Moctar, O.

2015-12-01

The present work aims to predict cavitation erosion using a numerical flow solver together with a new developed erosion model. The erosion model is based on the hypothesis that collapses of single cavitation bubbles near solid boundaries form high velocity microjets, which cause sonic impacts with high pressure amplitudes damaging the surface. The erosion model uses information from a numerical Euler-Euler flow simulation to predict erosion sensitive areas and assess the erosion aggressiveness of the flow. The obtained numerical results were compared to experimental results from tests of an axisymmetric nozzle.

PM2.5 and PM10 Emission from agricultural soils by wind erosion

Science.gov (United States)

Soil tillage and wind erosion are a major source of particulate matter less than 2.5 and 10 µm (PM2.5 and PM10) emission from cultivated soil. Fifteen cultivated soils collected from 5 states were tested as crushed (<2.0 mm) and uncrushed (natural aggregation) at 8, 10, and 13 m s-1 wind velocity in...

Relative contributions of wind and water erosion to total soil loss and its effect on soil properties in sloping croplands of the Chinese Loess Plateau.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuo, Dengfeng; Xu, Mingxiang; Gao, Guangyao

2018-08-15

Wind and water erosion are two dominant types of erosion that lead to soil and nutrient losses. Wind and water erosion may occur simultaneously to varying extents in semi-arid regions. The contributions of wind and water erosion to total erosion and their effects on soil quality, however, remains elusive. We used cesium-137 ( 137 Cs) inventories to estimate the total soil erosion and used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to quantify water erosion in sloping croplands. Wind erosion was estimated from the subtraction of the two. We also used 137 Cs inventories to calculate total soil erosion and validate the relationships of the soil quality and erosion at different slope aspects and positions. The results showed that wind erosion (1460tkm -2 a -1 ) on northwest-facing slope was responsible for approximately 39.7% of the total soil loss, and water erosion (2216tkm -2 a -1 ) accounted for approximately 60.3%. The erosion rates were 58.8% higher on northwest- than on southeast-facing slopes. Northwest-facing slopes had lower soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, clay, and silt contents than southeast-facing slopes, and thus, the 137 Cs inventories were lower, and the total soil erosions were higher on the northwest-facing slopes. The variations in soil physicochemical properties were related to total soil erosion. The lowest 137 Cs inventories and nutrient contents were recorded at the upper positions on the northwest-facing slopes due to the successive occurrence of more severe wind and water erosion at the same site. The results indicated that wind and water could accelerate the spatial variability of erosion rate and soil properties and cause serious decreases in the nutrient contents in sloping fields. Our research could help researchers develop soil strategies to reduce soil erosion according to the dominant erosion type when it occurs in a hilly agricultural area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A GIS-model for predicting the impact of climate change on shore erosion in hydroelectric reservoirs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penner, L.A.; Zimmer, T.A.M.; St Laurent, M.

2008-01-01

Shoreline erosion affects inland lakes and hydroelectric reservoirs in several ways. This poster described a vector-based geographic information system (GIS) model designed to predict changes in shore zone geometry, top-of-bluff recession, and eroded sediment volumes. The model was designed for use in Manitoba Hydro's reservoirs in northern Manitoba, and simulated near-shore downcutting and bank recession caused by wind-generated waves. Parameters for the model included deep water wave energy, and water level fluctuations. Effective wave energy was seen as a function of the water level fluctuation range, wave conditions, and near-shore slope. The model was validated by field monitoring studies that included repeated shore zone transect surveys and sediment coring studies. Results of the study showed that the model provides a systematic method of predicting potential changes in erosion associated with climatic change. The volume and mass of eroded sediment predicted for the different modelling scenarios will be used as input data for future sedimentation models. tabs., figs

Soil drying and wind erosion as affected by different types of shelterbelts planted in the desert region of western Rajasthan, India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, J.P.; Rao, G.G.S.N.; Gupta, G.N.; Rao, B.V.R.

1983-03-01

Studies on the effects of 8-year-old shelterbelt plantations indicate a general reduction in wind velocity, wind erosion and evaporative loss of moisture from fields protected with Prosopis juliflora, Cassia siamea and Acacia tortilis. Cassia siamea shelterbelts are the most effective in checking wind erosion and delaying drying of the soil. (Refs. 13).

Predicting of soil erosion with regarding to rainfall erosivity and soil erodibility

Science.gov (United States)

Suif, Zuliziana; Razak, Mohd Amirun Anis Ab; Ahmad, Nordila

2018-02-01

The soil along the hill and slope are wearing away due to erosion and it can take place due to occurrence of weak and heavy rainfall. The aim of this study is to predict the soil erosion degree in Universiti Pertahanan Nasional Malaysia (UPNM) area focused on two major factor which is soil erodibility and rainfall erosivity. Soil erodibility is the possibilities of soil to detach and carried away during rainfall and runoff. The "ROM" scale was used in this study to determine the degree of soil erodibility, namely low, moderate, high, and very high. As for rainfall erosivity, the erosive power caused by rainfall that cause soil loss. A daily rainfall data collected from January to April was analyzed by using ROSE index classification to identify the potential risk of soil erosion. The result shows that the soil erodibilty are moderate at MTD`s hill, high at behind of block Lestari and Landslide MTD hill, and critical at behind the mess cadet. While, the highest rainfall erosivity was recorded in March and April. Overall, this study would benefit the organization greatly in saving cost in landslide protection as relevant authorities can take early measures repairing the most affected area of soil erosion.

Wind power prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

1976-01-01

Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

Three procedures for estimating erosion from construction areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abt, S.R.; Ruff, J.F.

1978-01-01

Erosion from many mining and construction sites can lead to serious environmental pollution problems. Therefore, erosion management plans must be developed in order that the engineer may implement measures to control or eliminate excessive soil losses. To properly implement a management program, it is necessary to estimate potential soil losses from the time the project begins to beyond project completion. Three methodologies are presented which project the estimated soil losses due to sheet or rill erosion of water and are applicable to mining and construction areas. Furthermore, the three methods described are intended as indicators of the state-of-the-art in water erosion prediction. The procedures herein do not account for gully erosion, snowmelt erosion, wind erosion, freeze-thaw erosion or extensive flooding

Interactive effects of moss-dominated crusts and Artemisia ordosica on wind erosion and soil moisture in Mu Us sandland, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yongsheng; Bu, Chongfeng; Mu, Xingmin; Shao, Hongbo; Zhang, Kankan

2014-01-01

To better understand the effects of biological soil crusts (BSCs) on soil moisture and wind erosion and study the necessity and feasibility of disturbance of BSCs in the Mu Us sandland, the effects of four treatments, including moss-dominated crusts alone, Artemisia ordosica alone, bare sand, and Artemisia ordosica combined with moss-dominated crusts, on rainwater infiltration, soil moisture, and annual wind erosion were observed. The major results are as follows. (1) The development of moss-dominated crusts exacerbated soil moisture consumption and had negative effects on soil moisture in the Mu Us sandland. (2) Moss-dominated crusts significantly increased soil resistance to wind erosion, and when combined with Artemisia ordosica, this effect became more significant. The contribution of moss-dominated crusts under Artemisia ordosica was significantly lower than that of moss-dominated crusts alone in sites where vegetative coverage > 50%. (3) Finally, an appropriate disturbance of moss-dominated crusts in the rainy season in sites with high vegetative coverage improved soil water environment and vegetation succession, but disturbance in sites with little or no vegetative cover should be prohibited to avoid the exacerbation of wind erosion.

Sonic anemometry and sediment traps to evaluate the effectiveness of windbreaks in preventing wind erosion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro López

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The present work analyzes the effectiveness of windbreaks against wind erosion through the study of streamline patterns and turbulent flow by means of sonic anemometry and sediment traps. To this end, windbreaks composed of plastic meshes (7.5 m long and 0.7 m tall were used. Windbreaks are a good means to reduce wind erosion, as they produce a positive effect on the characteristics of air currents that are related to wind erosion processes. Due to their ease of installation and dismantling, plastic meshes are widely used in areas where they are not required permanently. In our study, the use of a mesh of 13 × 30 threads cm−2 and 39 % porosity resulted in an average reduction of 85 % in face velocity at a height of 0.4 m and a distance of 1 m from the windbreak. The turbulence intensity i increased behind the windbreak because the reduction of mean of air speed on the leeside caused by the flow of air through the windbreak. Fluctuation levels, however, remained stable. The mean values of turbulence kinetic energy k decreased by 65 % to 86 % at a distance of 1 m from the windbreak and at a height of 0.4 m. The windbreak reduces erosion and sediment transportation 2 m downwind (2.9 times the windbreak height. Nevertheless, sediment transportation was not reduced at a height of 1.0 m and the effect of the windbreak was not observed at a distance of 6 m downwind (8.6 m times the windbreak height.

Development and validation of a method to estimate the potential wind erosion risk in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Roger; Deumlich, Detlef; Völker, Lidia

2017-04-01

The introduction of the Cross Compliance (CC) regulations for soil protection resulted in the demand for the classification of the the wind erosion risk on agricultural areas in Germany nationwide. A spatial highly resolved method was needed based on uniform data sets and validation principles, which provides a fair and equivalent procedure for all affected farmers. A GIS-procedure was developed, which derives the site specific wind erosion risk from the main influencing factors: soil texture, wind velocity, wind direction and landscape structure following the German standard DIN 19706. The procedure enables different approaches in the Federal States and comparable classification results. Here, we present the approach of the Federal State of Brandenburg. In the first step a complete soil data map was composed in a grid size of 10 x 10 m. Data were taken from 1.) the Soil quality Appraisal (scale 1:10.000), 2.) the Medium-scale Soil Mapping (MMK, 1:25.000), 3.) extrapolating the MMK, 4.) new Soil quality Appraisal (new areas after coal-mining). Based on the texture and carbon content the wind erosion susceptibility was divided in 6 classes. This map was combined with data of the annual average wind velocity resulting in an increase of the risk classes for wind velocities > 5 ms-1 and a decrease for structure is regarded by allocating a height to each landscape element, corresponding to the described features in the digital "Biotope and Land Use Map". The "hill shade" procedure of ArcGIS was used to set virtual shadows behind the landscape elements for eight directions. The relative frequency of wind from each direction was used as a weighting factor and multiplied with the numerical values of the shadowed cells. Depending on the distance to the landscape element the shadowing effect was combined with the risk classes. The results show that the wind erosion risk is obviously reduced by integrating landscape structures into the risk assessment. After the renewed

Retrospection of recent 30-year changes in the process of soil wind erosion in the Luanhe River Source Area of North China using Cesium-137

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen Zhifan [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xin Jie Kou Wai St., Beijing 100875 (China) and College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001 (China)], E-mail: chenzhf0604@163.com; Zhao Ye [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xin Jie Kou Wai St., Beijing 100875 (China)], E-mail: zhaoye@bnu.edu.cn; Qiao Jiejuan [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xin Jie Kou Wai St., Beijing 100875 (China); Zhang Qing [National Institute for Radiological Protection, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Protection, Beijing 100088 (China); Zhu Yuen [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xin Jie Kou Wai St., Beijing 100875 (China); Xu Cuihua [National Institute for Radiological Protection, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Protection, Beijing 100088 (China)

2009-10-15

The Luanhe River Source Area belongs to typical semi-arid, agro-pastoral ecotone of North China. It is very important for the prevention and treatment of soil erosion in North China to analyze and evaluate quantitatively the recent 30-year changes in the process of soil wind erosion in this area. Based on long field observations, soil samples from different depths in a representative wind-deposited soil profile in the Luanhe River Source Area were collected. Then the {sup 137}Cs activity of soil samples from different depths in the soil profile was determined using a GEM series HPGe (high-purity germanium) coaxial detector system (ADCAM-100), and their soil properties, such as the soil particle fraction and so on, were analyzed. According to the detected {sup 137}Cs activity of different depths, a continuous time sequence of the wind-deposited soil profile in the study area was established. Furthermore, through assumption on a soil relative wind erosion intensity index (SWEI), recent 30-year changes in the process of soil wind erosion in the Luanhe River Source Area were retrospected . The analysis results revealed that weaker soil wind erosion occurred in the study area from the 1970s to the early 1980s and from the late 1980s to the mid to late 1990s. Conversely, intense periods of soil wind erosion occurred in the mid-1980s and from the late 1990s to 2002.

Retrospection of recent 30-year changes in the process of soil wind erosion in the Luanhe River Source Area of North China using Cesium-137

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Zhifan; Zhao Ye; Qiao Jiejuan; Zhang Qing; Zhu Yuen; Xu Cuihua

2009-01-01

The Luanhe River Source Area belongs to typical semi-arid, agro-pastoral ecotone of North China. It is very important for the prevention and treatment of soil erosion in North China to analyze and evaluate quantitatively the recent 30-year changes in the process of soil wind erosion in this area. Based on long field observations, soil samples from different depths in a representative wind-deposited soil profile in the Luanhe River Source Area were collected. Then the 137 Cs activity of soil samples from different depths in the soil profile was determined using a GEM series HPGe (high-purity germanium) coaxial detector system (ADCAM-100), and their soil properties, such as the soil particle fraction and so on, were analyzed. According to the detected 137 Cs activity of different depths, a continuous time sequence of the wind-deposited soil profile in the study area was established. Furthermore, through assumption on a soil relative wind erosion intensity index (SWEI), recent 30-year changes in the process of soil wind erosion in the Luanhe River Source Area were retrospected . The analysis results revealed that weaker soil wind erosion occurred in the study area from the 1970s to the early 1980s and from the late 1980s to the mid to late 1990s. Conversely, intense periods of soil wind erosion occurred in the mid-1980s and from the late 1990s to 2002.

A universal meteorological method to identify potential risk of wind erosion on heavy-textured soils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Středová Hana

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The climate of Central Europe, mainly winter seasons with no snow cover at lower altitudes and a spring drought as well, might cause erosion events on heavy-textured soils. The aim of this paper is to define a universal method to identify the potential risk of wind erosion on heavy-textured soils. The categorization of potential wind erosion risk due to meteorological conditions is based on: (i an evaluation of the number of freeze-thaw episodes forming bare soil surfaces during the cold period of year; and (ii, an evaluation of the number of days with wet soil surfaces during the cold period of year. In the period 2001–2012 (from November to March, episodes with temperature changes from positive to negative and vice versa (thaw-freeze and freeze-thaw cycles and the effects of wet soil surfaces in connection with aggregate disintegration, are identified. The data are spatially interpolated by GIS tools for areas in the Czech Republic with heavy-textured soils. Blending critical categories is used to locate potential risks. The level of risk is divided into six classes. Those areas identified as potentially most vulnerable are the same localities where the highest number of erosive episodes on heavy-textured soils was documented.

Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

Science.gov (United States)

D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

2011-01-01

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

Wind Power Prediction Considering Nonlinear Atmospheric Disturbances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yagang Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the effect of nonlinear atmospheric disturbances on wind power prediction. A Lorenz system is introduced as an atmospheric disturbance model. Three new improved wind forecasting models combined with a Lorenz comprehensive disturbance are put forward in this study. Firstly, we define the form of the Lorenz disturbance variable and the wind speed perturbation formula. Then, different artificial neural network models are used to verify the new idea and obtain better wind speed predictions. Finally we separately use the original and improved wind speed series to predict the related wind power. This proves that the corrected wind speed provides higher precision wind power predictions. This research presents a totally new direction in the wind prediction field and has profound theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.

Soil wind erosion in ecological olive trees in the Tabernas desert (southeastern Spain): a wind tunnel experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Asensio, Carlos; Lozano, Francisco Javier; Gallardo, Pedro; Giménez, Antonio

2016-08-01

Wind erosion is a key component of the soil degradation processes. The purpose of this study is to find out the influence of material loss from wind on soil properties for different soil types and changes in soil properties in olive groves when they are tilled. The study area is located in the north of the Tabernas Desert, in the province of Almería, southeastern Spain. It is one of the driest areas in Europe, with a semiarid thermo-Mediterranean type of climate. We used a new wind tunnel model over three different soil types (olive-cropped Calcisol, Cambisol and Luvisol) and studied micro-plot losses and deposits detected by an integrated laser scanner. We also studied the image processing possibilities for examining the particles attached to collector plates located at the end of the tunnel to determine their characteristics and whether they were applicable to the setup. Samples collected in the traps at the end of the tunnel were analyzed. We paid special attention to the influence of organic carbon, carbonate and clay contents because of their special impact on soil crusting and the wind-erodible fraction. A principal components analysis (PCA) was carried out to find any relations on generated dust properties and the intensity and behavior of those relationships. Component 1 separated data with high N and OC contents from samples high in fine silt, CO3= and available K content. Component 2 separated data with high coarse silt and clay contents from data with high fine sand content. Component 3 was an indicator of available P2O5 content. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was carried out to analyze the effect of soil type and sampling height on different properties of trapped dust. Calculations based on tunnel data showed overestimation of erosion in soil types and calculation of the fraction of soil erodible by wind done by other authors for Spanish soils. As the highest loss was found in Cambisols, mainly due to the effect on soil crusting and the wind

Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. V. Drisya

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

Theoretical model for cavitation erosion prediction in centrifugal pump impeller

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rayan, M.A.; Mahgob, M.M.; Mostafa, N.H.

1990-01-01

Cavitation is known to have great effects on pump hydraulic and mechanical characteristics. These effects are mainly described by deviation in pump performance, increasing vibration and noise level as well as erosion of blade and casing materials. In the present work, only the hydrodynamic aspect of cavitation was considered. The efforts were directed toward the study of cavitation inception, cavity mechanics and material erosion in order to clarify the macrohydrodynamic aspects of cavitation erosive wear in real machines. As a result of this study, it was found that cavitation damage can be predicted from model data. The obtained theoretical results show good agreement with the experimental results obtained in this investigation and with results of some other investigations. The application of the findings of this work will help the design engineer in predicting the erosion rate, according to the different operating conditions. (author)

Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Predictive Tool for Spacecraft Polymers in Low Earth Orbit

Science.gov (United States)

Bank, Bruce A.; de Groh, Kim K.; Backus, Jane A.

2008-01-01

A predictive tool was developed to estimate the low Earth orbit (LEO) atomic oxygen erosion yield of polymers based on the results of the Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment (PEACE) Polymers experiment flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 2 (MISSE 2). The MISSE 2 PEACE experiment accurately measured the erosion yield of a wide variety of polymers and pyrolytic graphite. The 40 different materials tested were selected specifically to represent a variety of polymers used in space as well as a wide variety of polymer chemical structures. The resulting erosion yield data was used to develop a predictive tool which utilizes chemical structure and physical properties of polymers that can be measured in ground laboratory testing to predict the in-space atomic oxygen erosion yield of a polymer. The properties include chemical structure, bonding information, density and ash content. The resulting predictive tool has a correlation coefficient of 0.914 when compared with actual MISSE 2 space data for 38 polymers and pyrolytic graphite. The intent of the predictive tool is to be able to make estimates of atomic oxygen erosion yields for new polymers without requiring expensive and time consumptive in-space testing.

Evaluation of the 137Cs technique for estimating wind erosion losses for some sandy Western Australian soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, R.J.; Gilkes, R.J.

1994-01-01

The utility of the caesium-137 technique, for estimating the effects of wind erosion, was evaluated on the soils of a semi-arid agricultural area near Jerramungup, Western Australia. The past incidence of wind erosion was estimated from field observations of soil profile morphology and an existing remote sensing study. Erosion was limited to sandy surfaced soils (0-4% clay), with a highly significant difference (P 137 Cs values between eroded and non-eroded sandy soils, with mean values of 243±17 and 386±13 Bq m -2 respectively. Non-eroded soils, with larger clay contents, had a mean 137 Cs content of 421±26 Bq m -2 , however, due to considerable variation between replicate samples, this value was not significantly different from that of the non-eroded sands. Hence, although the technique discriminates between eroded and non-eroded areas, the large variation in 137 Cs values means that from 27 to 96 replicate samples are required to provide statistically valid estimates of 137 Cs loss. The occurrence of around 18% of the total 137 Cs between 10 and 20 cm depth in these soils, despite cultivation being confined to the surface 9 cm, suggests that leaching of 137 Cs occurs in the sandy soils, although there was no relationship between clay content and 137 Cs value for either eroded or non-eroded soils. In a multiple linear regression, organic carbon content and the mean grain size of the eroded soils explained 35% of the variation in 137 Cs content. This relationship suggests that both organic carbon and 137 Cs are removed by erosion, with erosion being more prevalent on soils with a finer sand fraction. Clay and silt contents do not vary with depth in the near-surface horizons of the eroded sandy soils, hence it is likely that wind erosion strips the entire surface horizon with its 137 Cs content, rather than selectively winnowing fine material. 71 refs., 6 tabs., 2 fig

Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model

Science.gov (United States)

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2010-01-01

Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70–90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale.

Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

2010-01-01

A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm...... to the case of a large number of wind farms in Europe and Australia among others is finally discussed....

Climatological changing effects on wind, precipitation and erosion: Large, meso and small scale analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aslan, Z.

2004-01-01

The Fourier transformation analysis for monthly average values of meteorological parameters has been considered, and amplitudes, phase angles have been calculated by using ground measurements in Turkey. The first order harmonics of meteorological parameters show large scale effects, while higher order harmonics show the effects of small scale fluctuations. The variations of first through sixth order harmonic amplitudes and phases provide a useful means of understanding the large and local scale effects on meteorological parameters. The phase angle can be used to determine the time of year the maximum or minimum of a given harmonic occurs. The analysis helps us to distinguish different pressure, relative humidity, temperature, precipitation and wind speed regimes and transition regions. Local and large scale phenomenon and some unusual seasonal patterns are also defined near Keban Dam and the irrigation area. Analysis of precipitation based on long term data shows that semi-annual fluctuations are predominant in the study area. Similarly, pressure variations are mostly influenced by semi-annual fluctuations. Temperature and humidity variations are mostly influenced by meso and micro scale fluctuations. Many large and meso scale climate change simulations for the 21st century are based on concentration of green house gases. A better understanding of these effects on soil erosion is necessary to determine social, economic and other impacts of erosion. The second part of this study covers the time series analysis of precipitation, rainfall erosivity and wind erosion at the Marmara Region. Rainfall and runoff erosivity factors are defined by considering the results of field measurements at 10 stations. Climatological changing effects on rainfall erosion have been determined by monitoring meteorological variables. In the previous studies, Fournier Index is defined to estimate the rainfall erosivity for the study area. The Fournier Index or in other words a climatic index

Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Prediction for Spacecraft Polymers in Low Earth Orbit

Science.gov (United States)

Banks, Bruce A.; Backus, Jane A.; Manno, Michael V.; Waters, Deborah L.; Cameron, Kevin C.; deGroh, Kim K.

2009-01-01

The ability to predict the atomic oxygen erosion yield of polymers based on their chemistry and physical properties has been only partially successful because of a lack of reliable low Earth orbit (LEO) erosion yield data. Unfortunately, many of the early experiments did not utilize dehydrated mass loss measurements for erosion yield determination, and the resulting mass loss due to atomic oxygen exposure may have been compromised because samples were often not in consistent states of dehydration during the pre-flight and post-flight mass measurements. This is a particular problem for short duration mission exposures or low erosion yield materials. However, as a result of the retrieval of the Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment (PEACE) flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 2 (MISSE 2), the erosion yields of 38 polymers and pyrolytic graphite were accurately measured. The experiment was exposed to the LEO environment for 3.95 years from August 16, 2001 to July 30, 2005 and was successfully retrieved during a space walk on July 30, 2005 during Discovery s STS-114 Return to Flight mission. The 40 different materials tested (including Kapton H fluence witness samples) were selected specifically to represent a variety of polymers used in space as well as a wide variety of polymer chemical structures. The MISSE 2 PEACE Polymers experiment used carefully dehydrated mass measurements, as well as accurate density measurements to obtain accurate erosion yield data for high-fluence (8.43 1021 atoms/sq cm). The resulting data was used to develop an erosion yield predictive tool with a correlation coefficient of 0.895 and uncertainty of +/-6.3 10(exp -25)cu cm/atom. The predictive tool utilizes the chemical structures and physical properties of polymers to predict in-space atomic oxygen erosion yields. A predictive tool concept (September 2009 version) is presented which represents an improvement over an earlier (December 2008) version.

Erosion Prediction Analysis and Landuse Planning in Gunggung Watershed, Bali, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Trigunasih, N. M.; Kusmawati, T.; Yuli Lestari, N. W.

2018-02-01

The purpose of this research is to predict the erosion that occurs in Gunggung watershed and sustainable landuse management plan. This research used the USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) methodology. The method used observation / field survey and soil analysis at the Soil Laboratory of Faculty of Agriculture, Udayana University. This research is divided into 5 stages, (1) land unit determination, (2) Field observation and soil sampling, (3) Laboratory analysis and data collection, (4) Prediction of erosion using USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) method, (5) The permissible erosion determination (EDP) then (6) determines the level of erosion hazard based on the depth of the soil, as well as the soil conservation plan if the erosion is greater than the allowed erosion, and (7) determining landuse management plan for sustainable agriculture. Erosion which value is smaller than soil loss tolerance can be exploited in a sustainable manner, while erosion exceeds allowable erosion will be conservation measures. Conservation action is the improvement of vegetation and land management. Land management like improvements the terrace, addition of organic matter, increase plant density, planting ground cover and planting layered header system will increase the land capability classes. Land use recommended after management is mixed plantation high density with forest plants, mix plantation high density with patio bench construction, seasonal cultivation and perennial crops, cultivation of perennial crops and cultivation of seasonal crops.

On the Predictability of Hub Height Winds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Draxl, Caroline

Wind energy is a major source of power in over 70 countries across the world, and the worldwide share of wind energy in electricity consumption is growing. The introduction of signicant amounts of wind energy into power systems makes accurate wind forecasting a crucial element of modern electrical...... grids. These systems require forecasts with temporal scales of tens of minutes to a few days in advance at wind farm locations. Traditionally these forecasts predict the wind at turbine hub heights; this information is then converted by transmission system operators and energy companies into predictions...... of power output at wind farms. Since the power available in the wind is proportional to the wind speed cubed, even small wind forecast errors result in large power prediction errors. Accurate wind forecasts are worth billions of dollars annually; forecast improvements will result in reduced costs...

Predicting the temporal relationship between soil cesium-137 and erosion rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kachanoski, R.G.; De Jong, E.

1984-01-01

A model was developed that predicts the amount of 137 Cs remaining in soil as a function of time and erosion rate. The model accounts for atmospheric deposition, radioactive decay, tillage dilution, and erosion transport of 137 Cs, as well as seasonal differences in 137 Cs deposition and erosion rates. The model was used to estimate minimum resolution of erosion estimates based on detection limits and accuracy of 137 Cs measurement by gamma spectroscopy, as a function of time and erosion rate. The analysis showed that under Saskatchewan conditions, changes in 137 Cs at a given site can be used to estimate erosion rates between 0.5 and 10 kg m -2 yr -1 with reasonable precision, provided the sampling interval is at least 15 yr. The relationship of fraction of 137 Cs lost vs. erosion as predicted by the model was compared with other methods being used. The model was used to estimate erosion from selected Saskatchewan soils where 137 Cs levels were measured in 1966 and again in 1981. Erosion rates calculated with the model varied from 1 kg m -2 yr -1 for a sandy loam soil in continuous forage to 19 kg m -2 yr -1 for a similar soil in a crop-fallow rotation. Erosion estimates using the model were higher than those calculated by assuming that soil loss was directly proportional to 137 Cs loss, especially when 137 Cs loss was high

Wind-Driven Erosion and Exposure Potential at Mars 2020 Rover Candidate-Landing Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Chojnacki, Matthew; Banks, Maria; Urso, Anna

2018-01-01

Aeolian processes have likely been the predominant geomorphic agent for most of Mars’ history and have the potential to produce relatively young exposure ages for geologic units. Thus, identifying local evidence for aeolian erosion is highly relevant to the selection of landing sites for future missions, such as the Mars 2020 Rover mission that aims to explore astrobiologically relevant ancient environments. Here we investigate wind-driven activity at eight Mars 2020 candidate-landing sites to constrain erosion potential at these locations. To demonstrate our methods, we found that contemporary dune-derived abrasion rates were in agreement with rover-derived exhumation rates at Gale crater and could be employed elsewhere. The Holden crater candidate site was interpreted to have low contemporary erosion rates, based on the presence of a thick sand coverage of static ripples. Active ripples at the Eberswalde and southwest Melas sites may account for local erosion and the dearth of small craters. Moderate-flux regional dunes near Mawrth Vallis were deemed unrepresentative of the candidate site, which is interpreted to currently be experiencing low levels of erosion. The Nili Fossae site displayed the most unambiguous evidence for local sand transport and erosion, likely yielding relatively young exposure ages. The downselected Jezero crater and northeast Syrtis sites had high-flux neighboring dunes and exhibited substantial evidence for sediment pathways across their ellipses. Both sites had relatively high estimated abrasion rates, which would yield young exposure ages. The downselected Columbia Hills site lacked evidence for sand movement, and contemporary local erosion rates are estimated to be relatively low. PMID:29568719

Wind-Driven Erosion and Exposure Potential at Mars 2020 Rover Candidate-Landing Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Chojnacki, Matthew; Banks, Maria; Urso, Anna

2018-02-01

Aeolian processes have likely been the predominant geomorphic agent for most of Mars' history and have the potential to produce relatively young exposure ages for geologic units. Thus, identifying local evidence for aeolian erosion is highly relevant to the selection of landing sites for future missions, such as the Mars 2020 Rover mission that aims to explore astrobiologically relevant ancient environments. Here we investigate wind-driven activity at eight Mars 2020 candidate-landing sites to constrain erosion potential at these locations. To demonstrate our methods, we found that contemporary dune-derived abrasion rates were in agreement with rover-derived exhumation rates at Gale crater and could be employed elsewhere. The Holden crater candidate site was interpreted to have low contemporary erosion rates, based on the presence of a thick sand coverage of static ripples. Active ripples at the Eberswalde and southwest Melas sites may account for local erosion and the dearth of small craters. Moderate-flux regional dunes near Mawrth Vallis were deemed unrepresentative of the candidate site, which is interpreted to currently be experiencing low levels of erosion. The Nili Fossae site displayed the most unambiguous evidence for local sand transport and erosion, likely yielding relatively young exposure ages. The downselected Jezero crater and northeast Syrtis sites had high-flux neighboring dunes and exhibited substantial evidence for sediment pathways across their ellipses. Both sites had relatively high estimated abrasion rates, which would yield young exposure ages. The downselected Columbia Hills site lacked evidence for sand movement, and contemporary local erosion rates are estimated to be relatively low.

Soil Erosion. LC Science Tracer Bullet.

Science.gov (United States)

Buydos, John F., Comp.

Soil erosion is the detachment and movement of topsoil or soil material from the upper part of the soil profile. It may occur in the form of rill, gully, sheet, or wind erosion. Agents of erosion may be water, wind, glacial ice, agricultural implements, machinery, and animals. Soil conservation measures require a thorough understanding of the…

Wind farms production: Control and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect

Wind Predictions Upstream Wind Turbines from a LiDAR Database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soledad Le Clainche

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This article presents a new method to predict the wind velocity upstream a horizontal axis wind turbine from a set of light detection and ranging (LiDAR measurements. The method uses higher order dynamic mode decomposition (HODMD to construct a reduced order model (ROM that can be extrapolated in space. LiDAR measurements have been carried out upstream a wind turbine at six different planes perpendicular to the wind turbine axis. This new HODMD-based ROM predicts with high accuracy the wind velocity during a timespan of 24 h in a plane of measurements that is more than 225 m far away from the wind turbine. Moreover, the technique introduced is general and obtained with an almost negligible computational cost. This fact makes it possible to extend its application to both vertical axis wind turbines and real-time operation.

Assessing and Predicting Erosion from Off Highway Vehicle Trails in Front-Range Rocky Mountain Watersheds.

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, M. J.; Silins, U.; Anderson, A.

2016-12-01

Off highway vehicle (OHV) trails have the potential to deliver sediment to sensitive headwater streams and increased OHV use is a growing watershed management concern in many Rocky Mountain regions. Predictive tools for estimating erosion and sediment inputs are needed to support assessment and management of erosion from OHV trail networks. The objective of this study was to a) assess erodibility (K factor) and total erosion from OHV trail networks in Rocky Mountain watersheds in south-west Alberta, Canada, and to b) evaluate the applicability of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) for predicting OHV trail erosion to support erosion management strategies. Measured erosion rates and erodibility (K) from rainfall simulation plots on OHV trails during the summers of 2014 and 2015 were compared to USLE predicted erosion from these same trails. Measured erodibility (K) from 23 rainfall simulation plots was highly variable (0.001-0.273 Mg*ha*hr/ha*MJ*mm) as was total seasonal erosion from 52 large trail sections (0.0595-43.3 Mg/ha) across trail segments of variable slope, stoniness, and trail use intensity. In particular, intensity of trail use had a large effect on both erodibility and total erosion that is not presently captured by erodibility indices (K) derived from soil characteristics. Results of this study suggest that while application of USLE for predicting erosion from OHV trail networks may be useful for initial coarse erosion assessment, a better understanding of the effect of factors such as road/trail use intensity on erodibility is needed to support use of USLE or associated erosion prediction tools for road/trail erosion management.

Prediction of Soil Erosion Rates in Japan where Heavily Forested Landscape with Unstable Terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Nanko, K.; Oguro, M.; Miura, S.; Masaki, T.

2016-12-01

Soil is fundamental for plant growth, water conservation, and sustainable forest management. Multidisciplinary interest in the role of the soil in areas such as biodiversity, ecosystem services, land degradation, and water security has been growing (Miura et al., 2015). Forest is usually protective land use from soil erosion because vegetation buffers rainfall power and erosivity. However, some types of forest in Japan show high susceptibility to soil erosion due to little ground cover and steep slopes exceeding thirty degree, especially young Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations (Miura et al., 2002). This is a critical issue for sustainable forest management because C. obtusaplantations account for 10% of the total forest coverage in Japan (Forestry Agency, 2009). Prediction of soil erosion rates on nationwide scale is necessary to make decision for future forest management plan. To predict and map soil erosion rates across Japan, we applied three soil erosion models, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), PESERA (Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment, Kirkby et al., 2003), and RMMF (Revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney, Morgan, 2001). The grid scale is 1-km. RUSLE and PESERA are most widely used erosion models today. RMMF includes interactions between rainfall and vegetation, such as canopy interception and ratio of canopy drainage in throughfall. Evaporated rainwater by canopy interception, generally accounts for 15-20% in annual rainfall, does not contribute soil erosion. Whereas, larger raindrops generated by canopy drainage produced higher splash erosion rates than gross rainfall (Nanko et al., 2008). Therefore, rainfall redistribution process in canopy should be considered to predict soil erosion rates in forested landscape. We compared the results from three erosion models and analyze the importance of environmental factors for the prediction of soil erosion rates. This research was supported by the Environment

Separation of dry and wet periods from regular weather station data for the analysis of wind erosion risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Naeini, Mohammadali Saremi; Fister, Wolfgang; Heckrath, Goswin Johann

importance, soil moisture content is often ignored in the analysis of wind data for wind erosion studies. The main reason most probably being the lack of soil moisture sensors in conventional climate stations. Soil moisture at a given point in time is determined by rain (e.g. rainfall amount, duration......), climate (e.g. air temperature, solar radiation, evaporation) and soil (e.g. infiltration rate, adhesion). The purpose of this study is to overcome the lack of soil moisture data for wind erosion risk assessment by developing a method to estimate the soil wetness based on easy available weather data......, such as daily precipitation, hourly/sub hourly ambient air temperature and hourly/sub hourly relative humidity. This new method was used to identify periods of wet and dry soil moisture conditions of a time series from 20 weather stations in Denmark. The length of the time series varied between 8 to 37 years...

Prediction method for cavitation erosion based on measurement of bubble collapse impact loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hattori, S; Hirose, T; Sugiyama, K

2009-01-01

The prediction of cavitation erosion rates is important in order to evaluate the exact life of components. The measurement of impact loads in bubble collapses helps to predict the life under cavitation erosion. In this study, we carried out erosion tests and the measurements of impact loads in bubble collapses with a vibratory apparatus. We evaluated the incubation period based on a cumulative damage rule by measuring the impact loads of cavitation acting on the specimen surface and by using the 'constant impact load - number of impact loads curve' similar to the modified Miner's rule which is employed for fatigue life prediction. We found that the parameter Σ(F i α xn i ) (F i : impact load, n i : number of impacts and α: constant) is suitable for the evaluation of the erosion life. Moreover, we propose a new method that can predict the incubation period under various cavitation conditions.

Interactions Between Wind Erosion, Vegetation Structure, and Soil Stability in Groundwater Dependent Plant Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Vest, K. R.; Elmore, A. J.; Okin, G. S.

2009-12-01

Desertification is a human induced global phenomenon causing a loss of biodiversity and ecosystem productivity. Semi-arid grasslands are vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts (i.e., groundwater pumping and surface water diversion) that decrease vegetation cover and increase bare soil area leading to a greater probability of soil erosion, potentially enhancing feedback processes associated with desertification. To enhance our understanding of interactions between anthropogenic, physical, and biological factors causing desertification, this study used a combination of modeling and field observations to examine the relationship between chronic groundwater pumping and vegetation cover change and its effects on soil erosion and stability. The work was conducted in Owens Valley California, where a long history of groundwater pumping and surface water diversion has lead to documented vegetation changes. The work examined hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical factors across thirteen sites in Owens Valley. We analyzed soil stability, vegetation and gap size, soil organic carbon, and we also installed Big Spring Number Eight (BSNE) catchers to calculate mass transport of aeolian sediment across sites. Mass transport calculations were used to validate a new wind erosion model that represents the effect of porous vegetation on surface windshear velocity. Results across two field seasons show that the model can be used to predict mass transport, and areas with increased groundwater pumping show a greater susceptibility to erosion. Sediment collected in BSNE catchers was positively correlated with site gap size. Additionally, areas with larger gap sizes have a greater threshold shear velocity and soil stability, yet mass transport was greater at these sites than at sites with smaller gap sizes. Although modeling is complicated by spatial variation in multiple model parameters (e.g., gap size, threshold shear velocity in gaps), our results support the hypothesis that soils

Integration of fluvial erosion factors for predicting landslides along meandering rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi-chin; Chang, Kang-tsung; Ho, Jui-yi

2015-04-01

River incision and lateral erosion are important geomorphologic processes in mountainous areas of Taiwan. During a typhoon or storm event, the increase of water discharge, flow velocity, and sediment discharge enhances the power of river erosion on channel bank. After the materials on toe of hillslope were removed by river erosion, landslides were triggered at outer meander bends. Although it has been long expected that river erosion can trigger landslide, studies quantifying the effects of river erosion on landslide and the application of river erosion index in landslide prediction are still overlooked. In this study, we investigated the effect of river erosion on landslide in a particular meanders landscape of the Jhoukou River, southern Taiwan. We developed a semi-automatic model to separate meandering lines into several reach segments based on the inflection points and to calculate river erosion indexes, e.g. sinuosity of meander, stream power, and stream order, for each reach segment. This model, then, built the spatial relationship between the reaches and its corresponding hillslopes, of which the toe was eroded by the reach. Based on the spatial relationship, we quantified the correlations between these indexes and landslides triggered by Typhoon Morakot in 2009 to examine the effects of river erosion on landslide. The correlated indexes were then used as landslide predictors in logistic regression model. Results of the study showed that there is no significant correlation between landslide density and meander sinuosity. This may be a result of wider channel dispersing the erosion at a meandering reach. On the other hand, landslide density at concave bank is significantly higher than that at convex bank in the downstream (stream order > 3), but that is almost the same in the upstream (stream order bank. In contrast, river sediment in the downstream is an erosion agent eroding the concave bank laterally, but also depositing on the concave side and protecting

A pan-European quantitative assessment of soil loss by wind

Science.gov (United States)

Borrelli, Pasqualle; Lugato, Emanuele; Panagos, Panos

2016-04-01

Soil erosion by wind is a serious environmental problem often low perceived but resulting in severe soil degradation forms. On the long-term a considerable part of topsoil - rich in nutrient and organic matters - could be removed compromising the agricultural productivity and inducing an increased use of fertilizers. Field scale studies and observations proven that wind erosion is a serious problem in many European sites. The state-of-the-art suggests a scenario where wind erosion locally affects the temperate climate areas of the northern European countries, as well as the semi-arid areas of the Mediterranean region. However, observations, field measurements and modelling assessments are extremely limited and unequally distributed across Europe. It implies a lack of knowledge about where and when wind erosion occurs, limiting policy actions aimed at mitigating land degradation. To gain a better understanding about soil degradation process, the Soil Resource Assessment working group of the Joint Research Centre carried out the first pan-European assessments of wind-erodible fraction of soil (EF) (Geoderma, 232, 471-478, 2014) and land susceptibility to wind erosion (Land Degradation & Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2318). Today's challenge is to integrate the insights archived by these pan-European assessments, local experiments and field-scale models into a new generation of regional-scale wind erosion models. A GIS version of the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) was developed with the aim to i) move a step forward into the aforementioned challenges, and ii) evaluate the soil loss potential due to wind erosion in the agricoltural land of the EU. The model scheme was designed to describe daily soil loss potential, combining spatiotemporal conditions of soil erodibility, crust factor, soil moisture content, vegetation coverage and wind erosivity at 1 km2 resolution. The average soil loss predicted by GIS-RWEQ in the EU arable land ranges from 0 to 39.9 Mg ha-1 yr

Improved Wind Speed Prediction Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ZHANG, Y.

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Wind power industry plays an important role in promoting the development of low-carbon economic and energy transformation in the world. However, the randomness and volatility of wind speed series restrict the healthy development of the wind power industry. Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to realize the stability of wind power integration and to guarantee the safe operation of the power system. In this paper, combined with the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD, the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF and the Least Square Support Vector Machine (SVM, an improved wind speed prediction model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD-RBF-LS-SVM is proposed. The prediction result indicates that compared with the traditional prediction model (RBF, LS-SVM, the EMD-RBF-LS-SVM model can weaken the random fluctuation to a certain extent and improve the short-term accuracy of wind speed prediction significantly. In a word, this research will significantly reduce the impact of wind power instability on the power grid, ensure the power grid supply and demand balance, reduce the operating costs in the grid-connected systems, and enhance the market competitiveness of the wind power.

Short-term wind power prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joensen, Alfred K.

2003-01-01

, and to implement these models and methods in an on-line software application. The economical value of having predictions available is also briefly considered. The summary report outlines the background and motivation for developing wind power prediction models. The meteorological theory which is relevant......The present thesis consists of 10 research papers published during the period 1997-2002 together with a summary report. The objective of the work described in the thesis is to develop models and methods for calculation of high accuracy predictions of wind power generated electricity...

On the Material Characterisation of Wind Turbine Blade Coatings: The Effect of Interphase Coating–Laminate Adhesion on Rain Erosion Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrique Cortés

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Rain erosion damage, caused by repeated droplet impact on wind turbine blades, is a major cause for concern, even more so at offshore locations with larger blades and higher tip speeds. Due to the negative economic influence of blade erosion, all wind turbine Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs are actively seeking solutions. In most cases, since the surface coating plays a decisive role in the blade manufacture and overall performance, it has been identified as an area where a solution may be obtained. In this research, two main coating technologies have been considered: In-mould coatings (Gel coating applied during moulding on the entire blade surface and the post-mould coatings specifically developed for Leading Edge Protection (LEP. The coating adhesion and erosion is affected by the shock waves created by the collapsing water droplets on impact. The stress waves are reflected and transmitted to the laminate substrate, so microstructural discontinuities in coating layers and interfaces play a key role on its degradation and may accelerate erosion by delamination. Analytical and numerical models are commonly used to relate lifetime prediction and to identify suitable coating and composite substrate combinations based on their potential stress reduction on the interface. Nevertheless, in order to use them, it is necessary to measure the contact adhesion resistance of the multi-layered system interfaces. The rain erosion performance is assessed using an accelerated testing technique, whereby the test material is repeatedly impacted at high speed with water droplets in a Whirling Arm Rain Erosion Rig (WARER. The materials, specifically the coating–laminate interphase region and acoustic properties, are further characterised by several laboratory tests, including Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC, pull-off testing, peeling–adhesion testing and nanoindentation testing. This body of work includes a number of case studies. The first case

On the Material Characterisation of Wind Turbine Blade Coatings: The Effect of Interphase Coating–Laminate Adhesion on Rain Erosion Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Cortés, Enrique; Sánchez, Fernando; Madramany, Borja

2017-01-01

Rain erosion damage, caused by repeated droplet impact on wind turbine blades, is a major cause for concern, even more so at offshore locations with larger blades and higher tip speeds. Due to the negative economic influence of blade erosion, all wind turbine Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are actively seeking solutions. In most cases, since the surface coating plays a decisive role in the blade manufacture and overall performance, it has been identified as an area where a solution may be obtained. In this research, two main coating technologies have been considered: In-mould coatings (Gel coating) applied during moulding on the entire blade surface and the post-mould coatings specifically developed for Leading Edge Protection (LEP). The coating adhesion and erosion is affected by the shock waves created by the collapsing water droplets on impact. The stress waves are reflected and transmitted to the laminate substrate, so microstructural discontinuities in coating layers and interfaces play a key role on its degradation and may accelerate erosion by delamination. Analytical and numerical models are commonly used to relate lifetime prediction and to identify suitable coating and composite substrate combinations based on their potential stress reduction on the interface. Nevertheless, in order to use them, it is necessary to measure the contact adhesion resistance of the multi-layered system interfaces. The rain erosion performance is assessed using an accelerated testing technique, whereby the test material is repeatedly impacted at high speed with water droplets in a Whirling Arm Rain Erosion Rig (WARER). The materials, specifically the coating–laminate interphase region and acoustic properties, are further characterised by several laboratory tests, including Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), pull-off testing, peeling–adhesion testing and nanoindentation testing. This body of work includes a number of case studies. The first case study compares

On the Material Characterisation of Wind Turbine Blade Coatings: The Effect of Interphase Coating-Laminate Adhesion on Rain Erosion Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortés, Enrique; Sánchez, Fernando; O'Carroll, Anthony; Madramany, Borja; Hardiman, Mark; Young, Trevor M

2017-09-28

Rain erosion damage, caused by repeated droplet impact on wind turbine blades, is a major cause for concern, even more so at offshore locations with larger blades and higher tip speeds. Due to the negative economic influence of blade erosion, all wind turbine Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are actively seeking solutions. In most cases, since the surface coating plays a decisive role in the blade manufacture and overall performance, it has been identified as an area where a solution may be obtained. In this research, two main coating technologies have been considered: In-mould coatings (Gel coating) applied during moulding on the entire blade surface and the post-mould coatings specifically developed for Leading Edge Protection (LEP). The coating adhesion and erosion is affected by the shock waves created by the collapsing water droplets on impact. The stress waves are reflected and transmitted to the laminate substrate, so microstructural discontinuities in coating layers and interfaces play a key role on its degradation and may accelerate erosion by delamination. Analytical and numerical models are commonly used to relate lifetime prediction and to identify suitable coating and composite substrate combinations based on their potential stress reduction on the interface. Nevertheless, in order to use them, it is necessary to measure the contact adhesion resistance of the multi-layered system interfaces. The rain erosion performance is assessed using an accelerated testing technique, whereby the test material is repeatedly impacted at high speed with water droplets in a Whirling Arm Rain Erosion Rig (WARER). The materials, specifically the coating-laminate interphase region and acoustic properties, are further characterised by several laboratory tests, including Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), pull-off testing, peeling-adhesion testing and nanoindentation testing. This body of work includes a number of case studies. The first case study compares two

Chapter 4. Predicting post-fire erosion and sedimentation risk on a landscape scale

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, L.H.; Sampson, R.; Brady, D.; Juarros, L.; Martin, Deborah

2000-01-01

Historic fire suppression efforts have increased the likelihood of large wildfires in much of the western U.S. Post-fire soil erosion and sedimentation risks are important concerns to resource managers. In this paper we develop and apply procedures to predict post-fire erosion and sedimentation risks on a pixel-, catchment-, and landscape-scale in central and western Colorado.Our model for predicting post-fire surface erosion risk is conceptually similar to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). One key addition is the incorporation of a hydrophobicity risk index (HY-RISK) based on vegetation type, predicted fire severity, and soil texture. Post-fire surface erosion risk was assessed for each 90-m pixel by combining HYRISK, slope, soil erodibility, and a factor representing the likely increase in soil wetness due to removal of the vegetation. Sedimentation risk was a simple function of stream gradient. Composite surface erosion and sedimentation risk indices were calculated and compared across the 72 catchments in the study area.When evaluated on a catchment scale, two-thirds of the catchments had relatively little post-fire erosion risk. Steeper catchments with higher fuel loadings typically had the highest post-fire surface erosion risk. These were generally located along the major north-south mountain chains and, to a lesser extent, in west-central Colorado. Sedimentation risks were usually highest in the eastern part of the study area where a higher proportion of streams had lower gradients. While data to validate the predicted erosion and sedimentation risks are lacking, the results appear reasonable and are consistent with our limited field observations. The models and analytic procedures can be readily adapted to other locations and should provide useful tools for planning and management at both the catchment and landscape scale.

Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

2009-01-01

Optimal management and trading of wind generation calls for the providing of uncertainty estimates along with the commonly provided short-term wind power point predictions. Alternative approaches for the use of probabilistic forecasting are introduced. More precisely, focus is given to prediction...... risk indices aiming to give a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the spread of ensemble forecasts (i.e. a set...... of alternative scenarios for the coming period) for a single prediction horizon or over a took-ahead period. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how these prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and potential energy imbalances). Wind power...

Comparison of WEPP and APEX runoff and erosion prediction at field scale in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) are process-based models that can predict spatial and temporal distributions of erosion for hillslopes and watersheds. This study applies the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion for a 35-ha fie...

Drawing a representative sample from the NCSS soil database: Building blocks for the national wind erosion network

Science.gov (United States)

Developing national wind erosion models for the continental United States requires a comprehensive spatial representation of continuous soil particle size distributions (PSD) for model input. While the current coverage of soil survey is nearly complete, the most detailed particle size classes have c...

A simple method to downscale daily wind statistics to hourly wind data

OpenAIRE

Guo, Zhongling

2013-01-01

Wind is the principal driver in the wind erosion models. The hourly wind speed data were generally required for precisely wind erosion modeling. In this study, a simple method to generate hourly wind speed data from daily wind statistics (daily average and maximum wind speeds together or daily average wind speed only) was established. A typical windy location with 3285 days (9 years) measured hourly wind speed data were used to validate the downscaling method. The results showed that the over...

Wind prediction in Malaysia using Mycielski-1 approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S. W.; Kok, B. C.; Goh, K. C.; Goh, H. H.

2012-11-01

In this paper, the wind speed prediction in Kudat, Malaysia had been done by using Mycielski-1 approach. There is some improvement in obtaining the random number of Mycielski-1. The wind prediction is important to study a favorable site's wind potential. The prediction is based on 3 years history data provided by Meteorology Department of Malaysia and 1 year data as the reference to check the accuracy of this algorithm. The basic concept of this algorithm is to predict the next value by looking to history data. The result shows the prediction of Mycielski-1 algorithm is promising. The wind speed is predicted in order to obtain the mean power for energy planning.

Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

2017-01-01

predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

Assessing the vegetation canopy influences on wind flow using wind ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Artificial plastic vegetations with different porosity and canopy shape were introduced as ... Wind erosion is the Aeolian process by which soil particles are detached from ..... the stabilizing role of vegetation on wind erosion. And therefore, for ...

Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

Science.gov (United States)

Shuhui Dun; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; Dennis C. Flanagan; James R. Frankenberger; Robert E. Brown; Arthur C. Xu

2009-01-01

There has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of...

Cavitation erosion prediction on Francis turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bourdon, P.; Farhat, M.; Simoneau, R.; Lavigne, P. [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Pereira, F.; Dupont, P.; Avellan, F.; Caron, J.F. [IMHEF/EPFL, (France); Dorey, J.M.; Archer, A. [Electricite de France (EDF), 92 - Clamart (France). Dir. des Etudes et Recherches; and others

1997-12-31

On-board aggressiveness measurement methods were tested on a severely eroded prototype blade of a 266 MW Francis turbine: pressure, pit counting, DECER electrochemical and vibration measurements. The test program provided understanding of the heterogeneous erosion distribution of the prototype blades and quantitative data for comparison in subsequent tests on the model of the machine. Model tests and flow analysis were also performed, to detect cavitation on a Francis turbine model. The results are compared to those obtained on the prototype measurements. The model used for that study is built on the basis of a geometrical recovery of one of the most eroded blade of the prototype. Different methods were investigated to predict cavitation erosion on Francis turbines from model. They are based on measurement of pitting, pressure fluctuations and acceleration. The methods proposed are suitable to measure cavitation aggressiveness on model and on prototype, and that the level on the model is several orders of magnitude smaller than on the prototype. (author) 18 refs.

Frequency weighted model predictive control of wind turbine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klauco, Martin; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Mirzaei, Mahmood

2013-01-01

This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work are the rotatio...... predictive controller are presented. Statistical comparison between frequency weighted MPC, standard MPC and baseline PI controller is shown as well.......This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work...... are the rotational degree of freedom of the rotor and the tower for-aft movement. The MPC design is based on a receding horizon policy and a linearised model of the wind turbine. Due to the change of dynamics according to wind speed, several linearisation points must be considered and the control design adjusted...

Changes in wind erosion over a 25-year restoration chronosequence on the south edge of the Tengger Desert, China: implications for preventing desertification.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Quanlin; Fehmi, Jeffrey S; Zhang, Dekui; Fan, Baoli; Chen, Fang

2017-08-23

Wind erosion is a primary cause of desertification as well as being a serious ecological problem in arid and semi-arid areas across the world. To determine mechanisms for restoring desertified lands, an unrestored shifting sand dune and three formerly shifting sand dunes (desertified lands) that had been enclosed and afforested for 5, 15, and 25 years were selected for evaluation on the south edge of the Tengger Desert, China. Based on sampling heights between 0.2 and 3 m, the critical threshold average wind speed was 6.5 m s -1 at 2 m where the sand transport rate was reduced from 285.9 kg m -2  h -1 on the unrestored dunes to 9.1 and 1.8 kg m -2  h -1 on the sites afforested and enclosed for 5 and 15 years, respectively. The percentage of wind eroded area was reduced from 99.9% on the unrestored dune to 94.5, 9.0, and 0.5% on the sites afforested and enclosed for 5, 15, and 25 years, respectively. Wind erosion was effectively reduced after 15 years. Although there were different driving factors for wind erosion mitigation on the different restoration stages, an increase in the vegetation cover, surface roughness, soil shear strength, soil clay content, organic matter, and reduction in the near-surface wind speed were the primary variables associated with the restoration chronosequence. We conclude that reducing the wind speed and developing a biological crust through vegetation restoration were the critical components for restoration of desertified land.

Contributions of solar-wind induced potential sputtering to the lunar surface erosion rate and it's exosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Alnussirat, S. T.; Barghouty, A. F.; Edmunson, J. E.; Sabra, M. S.; Rickman, D. L.

2018-04-01

Sputtering of lunar regolith by solar-wind protons and heavy ions with kinetic energies of about 1 keV/amu is an important erosive process that affects the lunar surface and exosphere. It plays an important role in changing the chemical composition and thickness of the surface layer, and in introducing material into the exosphere. Kinetic sputtering is well modeled and understood, but understanding of mechanisms of potential sputtering has lagged behind. In this study we differentiate the contributions of potential sputtering from the standard (kinetic) sputtering in changing the chemical composition and erosion rate of the lunar surface. Also we study the contribution of potential sputtering in developing the lunar exosphere. Our results show that potential sputtering enhances the total characteristic sputtering erosion rate by about 44%, and reduces sputtering time scales by the same amount. Potential sputtering also introduces more material into the lunar exosphere.

Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C.

1997-01-01

Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aiqing Kang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

Comparison of 137Cs fallout redistribution analysis and conventional erosion-prediction models (WEPP, USLE)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sparovek, G.; Bacchi, O.O.S.; Ranieri, S.B.L.; Schnug, E.; De-Maria, I.C.

2002-01-01

Soil erosion is the most important component of the degradation of tropical agroecosystems. The rates of erosion should be considered in land evaluation and conservation planning assessment. The methods available for erosion prediction are not sufficiently well calibrated or validated for tropical soils, climates and crops. Thus, differences in estimated soil-erosion values may be expected, even if considering a single set of input data. Three methods for the estimation of soil erosion (USLE, WEPP, and 137 Cs) were applied to a watershed cultivated with sugarcane in southeastern Brazil. The absolute erosion-rate values and differences in the spatial distribution were evaluated. The overall results suggest important differences in the estimates obtained by the three methods. The differences occurred both in mean values and in geographic locations. The relative mean values for soil loss were USLE>> 137 Cs>WEPP and for standard deviations were USLE>WEPP> 137 Cs, indicating that USLE predicted the highest erosion values spread out over the widest range. The poor geographical coincidence of the results is evidence that values resulting from non-calibrated erosion methods should be considered only as qualitative indications. The method selection should consider overall site variability in relation to factors to which the methods are known to be sensitive. (author)

The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

2018-04-01

When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

Using meteorological forecasts in on-line predictions of wind power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Torben Skov; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

1999-01-01

This report describes a model investigation into wind power prediction model as well as a tool for predicting the power production from wind turbines in an area - the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT). The predictions are based on on-line measurements of power production for a selected set...

Quantifying accelerated soil erosion through ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion

Science.gov (United States)

This work explores how organising soil erosion assessments using established groupings of similar soils (ecological sites) can inform systems for managing accelerated soil erosion. We evaluated aeolian sediment transport and fluvial erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA...

Assessment and prediction of wind turbine noise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowson, M.V.

1993-01-01

The significance of basic aerodynamic noise sources for wind turbine noise are assessed, using information on the aero-acoustic mechanisms of other rotors, which have been studied in depth for many years. From the analysis, areas of potential improvement in wind turbine noise prediction are defined. Suggestions are made for approaches to wind turbine noise control which separate the noise problems at cut-in from those at rated power. Some of these offer the possibility of noise reduction without unfavourable effects on performance. Based on this analysis, a new model for prediction of wind turbine noise is presented and comparisons made between prediction and experiment. The model is based on well established aeroacoustic theory and published laboratory data for the two principal sources, inflow turbulence and boundary layer trailing edge interaction. The new method gives good agreement with experiment with the case studied so far. Parametric trends and sensitivities for the model are presented. Comparisons with previous prediction methods are also given. A consequence of the new model is to put more emphasis on boundary layer trailing edge interaction as a noise source. There are prospects for reducing noise from this source detail changes to the wind turbine design. (author)

Erosion prediction for alpine slopes: a symbiosis of remote sensing and a physical based erosion model

Science.gov (United States)

Kaiser, Andreas; Neugirg, Fabian; Haas, Florian; Schindewolf, Marcus; Schmidt, Jürgen

2014-05-01

As rainfall simulations represent an established tool for quantifying soil detachment on cultivated area in lowlands and low mountain ranges, they are rarely used on steep slopes high mountain ranges. Still this terrain represents productive sediment sources of high morphodynamic. A quantitative differentiation between gravitationally and fluvially relocated material reveals a major challenge in understanding erosion on steep slopes: does solifluction as a result of melting in spring or heavy convective rainstorms during summer cause the essential erosion processes? This paper aims to answer this question by separating gravitational mass movement (solifluction, landslides, mudflow and needle ice) and runoff-induced detachment. First simulated rainstorm experiments are used to assess the sediment production on bare soil on a strongly inclined plot (1 m², 42°) in the northern limestone Alps. Throughout precipitation experiments runoff and related suspended sediments were quantified. In order to enlarge slope length virtually to around 20 m a runoff feeding device is additionally implemented. Soil physical parameters were derived from on-site sampling. The generated data is introduced to the physically based and catchment-scaled erosion model EROSION 3D to upscale plot size to small watershed conditions. Thus infiltration, runoff, detachment, transport and finally deposition can be predicted for single rainstorm events and storm sequences. Secondly, in order to separate gravitational mass movements and water erosion, a LiDAR and structure-from-motion based monitoring approach is carried out to produce high-resolution digital elevation models. A time series analysis of detachment and deposition from different points in time is implemented. Absolute volume losses are then compared to sediment losses calculated by the erosion model as the latter only generates data that is connected to water induced hillside erosion. This methodology will be applied in other watersheds

Experimental study on influence of vegetation coverage on runoff in wind-water erosion crisscross region

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jinhua; Zhang, Ronggang; Sun, Juan

2018-02-01

Using artificial rainfall simulation method, 23 simulation experiments were carried out in water-wind erosion crisscross region in order to analyze the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield. The experimental plots are standard plots with a length of 20m, width of 5m and slope of 15 degrees. The simulation experiments were conducted in different vegetation coverage experimental plots based on three different rainfall intensities. According to the experimental observation data, the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and infiltration was analyzed. Vegetation coverage has a significant impact on runoff, and the higher the vegetation coverage is, the smaller the runoff is. Under the condition of 0.6mm/min rainfall intensity, the runoff volume from the experimental plot with 18% vegetation coverage was 1.2 times of the runoff from the experimental with 30% vegetation coverage. What’s more, the difference of runoff is more obvious in higher rainfall intensity. If the rainfall intensity reaches 1.32mm/min, the runoff from the experimental plot with 11% vegetation coverage is about 2 times as large as the runoff from the experimental plot with 53%vegetation coverage. Under the condition of small rainfall intensity, the starting time of runoff in the experimental plot with higher vegetation coverage is later than that in the experimental plot with low vegetation coverage. However, under the condition of heavy rainfall intensity, there is no obvious difference in the beginning time of runoff. In addition, the higher the vegetation coverage is, the deeper the rainfall infiltration depth is.The results can provide reference for ecological construction carried out in wind erosion crisscross region with serious soil erosion.

Wind Speed Prediction with Wavelet Time Series Based on Lorenz Disturbance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ZHANG, Y.

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Due to the sustainable and pollution-free characteristics, wind energy has been one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources. However, the intermittent and random fluctuation of wind speed presents many challenges for reliable wind power integration and normal operation of wind farm. Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to ensure the safe operation of power system and to develop wind energy resources. Therefore, this paper has presented a wavelet time series wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance. Therefore, in this paper, combined with the atmospheric dynamical system, a wavelet-time series improved wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance is proposed and the wind turbines of different climate types in Spain and China are used to simulate the disturbances of Lorenz equations with different initial values. The prediction results show that the improved model can effectively correct the preliminary prediction of wind speed, improving the prediction. In a word, the research work in this paper will be helpful to arrange the electric power dispatching plan and ensure the normal operation of the wind farm.

Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

The role of bathymetry, wave obliquity and coastal curvature in dune erosion prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Den Heijer, C.

2013-01-01

This study aims at reducing uncertainty in dune erosion predictions, in particular at complex dune coasts, in order to improve the assessment method for dune safety against flooding. To that end, state-of-the-art process-based dune erosion models are employed to further investigate issues

Experience in the application of erosion-corrosion prediction programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castiella Villacampa, E.; Cacho Cordero, L.; Pascual Velazquez, A.; Casar Asuar, M.

1994-01-01

Recently the results of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's follow-on programme relating to the application of erosion-corrosion supervision and control programs were published. The main problems encountered in their practical application are highlighted, namely those associated with prediction, calculation of minimum thickness acceptable by code, results analyses of the thicknesses measured using ultrasound technology, cases of incorrect substitution, etc. A number of power plants in Spain are currently using a computerised prediction and monitoring program for the erosion-corrosion phenomenon. The experience gained in the application of this program has been such that it has led to a number or benefits: an improvement in the application of the program, proof of its suitability to real situation, the establishment of a series of criteria relative to the inclusion or exclusion of consideration during data input, the monitoring of the phenomenon, selection of elements for inspection, etc. The report describes these areas, using typical examples as illustrations. (Author)

Parametrization of the increase of the aeolian erosion threshold wind friction velocity due to soil moisture for arid and semi-arid areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Fécan

1999-01-01

Full Text Available Large-scale simulation of the soil-derived dust emission in semi-arid regions needs to account for the influence of the soil moisture on the wind erosion threshold. Soil water retention consists of molecular adsorption on the soil grain surface and capillary forces between the grain. Interparticle capillary forces (characterized by the moisture tension are the main factor responsible for the increase of the wind erosion threshold observed when the soil moisture increases. When the soil moisture content is close to but smaller than the maximum amount of adsorbed water, w' (depending on the soil texture, these capillary forces are considered as not strong enough to significantly increase the erosion threshold. An expression of the moisture tension as a function of soil moisture and w' is derived from retention curves. From this expression, a parametrization of the ratio of the wet to dry erosion thresholds has been developed as a function of soil moisture and soil texture. The coefficients of this parametrization have been determined by using experimental data from the literature. An empirical relationship between w' and soil clay content has been established. The erosion threshold ratios simulated for different soil textures were found to be in good agreement with the experimental data.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (Aerosols and particles · Hydrology (soil moisture

Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

2012-01-01

Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

DES Prediction of Cavitation Erosion and Its Validation for a Ship Scale Propeller

Science.gov (United States)

Ponkratov, Dmitriy, Dr

2015-12-01

Lloyd's Register Technical Investigation Department (LR TID) have developed numerical functions for the prediction of cavitation erosion aggressiveness within Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. These functions were previously validated for a model scale hydrofoil and ship scale rudder [1]. For the current study the functions were applied to a cargo ship's full scale propeller, on which the severe cavitation erosion was reported. The performed Detach Eddy Simulation (DES) required a fine computational mesh (approximately 22 million cells), together with a very small time step (2.0E-4 s). As the cavitation for this type of vessel is primarily caused by a highly non-uniform wake, the hull was also included in the simulation. The applied method under predicted the cavitation extent and did not fully resolve the tip vortex; however, the areas of cavitation collapse were captured successfully. Consequently, the developed functions showed a very good prediction of erosion areas, as confirmed by comparison with underwater propeller inspection results.

Model Predictive Control with Constraints of a Wind Turbine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

2007-01-01

Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure a...... an efficient control of the wind turbine over the entire range of wind speeds. Both onshore and floating offshore wind turbines are tested with the controllers.......Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure...

Wind speed prediction using statistical regression and neural network

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Prediction of wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer is important for wind energy assess- ment,satellite launching and aviation,etc.There are a few techniques available for wind speed prediction,which require a minimum number of input parameters.Four different statistical techniques,viz.,curve fitting,Auto Regressive ...

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

Science.gov (United States)

Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

1985-01-01

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Erodibility of waste (Loess) soils from construction sites under water and wind erosional forces.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanner, Smadar; Katra, Itzhak; Argaman, Eli; Ben-Hur, Meni

2018-03-01

Excess soils from construction sites (waste soils) become a problem when exposed to soil erosion by water or wind. Understanding waste soil erodibility can contribute to its proper reuse for various surface applications. The general objective of the study was to provide a better understanding of the effects of soil properties on erodibility of waste soils excavated from various depths in a semiarid region under rainfall and wind erosive forces. Soil samples excavated from the topsoil (0-0.3m) and subsoil layers (0.3-0.9 and >1m depths) were subjected to simulated rainfall and wind. Under rainfall erosive forces, the subsoils were more erodible than the topsoil, in contrast to the results obtained under wind erosive forces. Exchangeable sodium percentage was the main factor controlling soil erodibility (K i ) under rainfall, and a significant logarithmic regression line was found between these two parameters. In addition, a significant, linear regression was found between K i and slaking values for the studied soil samples, suggesting that the former can be predicted from the latter. Soil erodibility under wind erosion force was controlled mainly by the dry aggregate characteristics (mean weight diameter and aggregate density): their higher values in the subsoil layers resulted in lower soil erodibility compared to the topsoil. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuela de Lucas

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. CONCLUSIONS: Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed. We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kamp, Derek van der [University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC (Canada); University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada); Curry, Charles L. [Environment Canada University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada); Monahan, Adam H. [University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada)

2012-04-15

A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979-2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well. (orig.)

Neural Network Classifiers for Local Wind Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Kretzschmar, Ralf; Eckert, Pierre; Cattani, Daniel; Eggimann, Fritz

2004-05-01

This paper evaluates the quality of neural network classifiers for wind speed and wind gust prediction with prediction lead times between +1 and +24 h. The predictions were realized based on local time series and model data. The selection of appropriate input features was initiated by time series analysis and completed by empirical comparison of neural network classifiers trained on several choices of input features. The selected input features involved day time, yearday, features from a single wind observation device at the site of interest, and features derived from model data. The quality of the resulting classifiers was benchmarked against persistence for two different sites in Switzerland. The neural network classifiers exhibited superior quality when compared with persistence judged on a specific performance measure, hit and false-alarm rates.

Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

1999-03-01

Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

Numerical Investigation of Temperature Distribution in an Eroded Bend Pipe and Prediction of Erosion Reduced Thickness

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hongjun; Feng, Guang; Wang, Qijun

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of erosion thickness is essential for pipe engineering. The objective of the present paper is to study the temperature distribution in an eroded bend pipe and find a new method to predict the erosion reduced thickness. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations with FLUENT software are carried out to investigate the temperature field. And effects of oil inlet rate, oil inlet temperature, and erosion reduced thickness are examined. The presence of erosion pit brings about the obvious fluctuation of temperature drop along the extrados of bend. And the minimum temperature drop presents at the most severe erosion point. Small inlet temperature or large inlet velocity can lead to small temperature drop, while shallow erosion pit causes great temperature drop. The dimensionless minimum temperature drop is analyzed and the fitting formula is obtained. Using the formula we can calculate the erosion reduced thickness, which is only needed to monitor the outer surface temperature of bend pipe. This new method can provide useful guidance for pipeline monitoring and replacement. PMID:24719576

A model to predict the power output from wind farms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

1997-12-31

This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

The Major Cause of Observed Erosion Surge on the Beaches North ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Surges in coastal erosion north of Dar es Salaam city have been documented from 1977 to the early 1980s and around 1997/98. Analysis of the wind data shows that the documented increase in coastal erosion coincided with increased wind speeds. Extreme winds in excess of 10-11 m s-1 were experienced during ...

Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Kariniotakis, George

2007-01-01

This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed

Using machine learning to predict wind turbine power output

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clifton, A; Kilcher, L; Lundquist, J K; Fleming, P

2013-01-01

Wind turbine power output is known to be a strong function of wind speed, but is also affected by turbulence and shear. In this work, new aerostructural simulations of a generic 1.5 MW turbine are used to rank atmospheric influences on power output. Most significant is the hub height wind speed, followed by hub height turbulence intensity and then wind speed shear across the rotor disk. These simulation data are used to train regression trees that predict the turbine response for any combination of wind speed, turbulence intensity, and wind shear that might be expected at a turbine site. For a randomly selected atmospheric condition, the accuracy of the regression tree power predictions is three times higher than that from the traditional power curve methodology. The regression tree method can also be applied to turbine test data and used to predict turbine performance at a new site. No new data are required in comparison to the data that are usually collected for a wind resource assessment. Implementing the method requires turbine manufacturers to create a turbine regression tree model from test site data. Such an approach could significantly reduce bias in power predictions that arise because of the different turbulence and shear at the new site, compared to the test site. (letter)

Effects of Long-term Conservation Tillage on Soil Nutrients in Sloping Fields in Regions Characterized by Water and Wind Erosion

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Chunjian; Cao, Xue; Yuan, Shuai; Wang, Weiyu; Feng, Yongzhong; Qiao, Bo

2015-12-01

Conservation tillage is commonly used in regions affected by water and wind erosion. To understand the effects of conservation tillage on soil nutrients and yield, a long-term experiment was set up in a region affected by water and wind erosion on the Loess Plateau. The treatments used were traditional tillage (CK), no tillage (NT), straw mulching (SM), plastic-film mulching (PM), ridging and plastic-film mulching (RPM) and intercropping (In). Our results demonstrate that the available nutrients in soils subjected to non-traditional tillage treatments decreased during the first several years and then remained stable over the last several years of the experiment. The soil organic matter and total nitrogen content increased gradually over 6 years in all treatments except CK. The nutrient content of soils subjected to conservative tillage methods, such as NT and SM, were significantly higher than those in soils under the CK treatment. Straw mulching and film mulching effectively reduced an observed decrease in soybean yield. Over the final 6 years of the experiment, soybean yields followed the trend RPM > PM > SM > NT > CK > In. This trend has implications for controlling soil erosion and preventing non-point source pollution in sloping fields by sacrificing some food production.

Wind power prediction based on genetic neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Suhan

2017-04-01

The scale of grid connected wind farms keeps increasing. To ensure the stability of power system operation, make a reasonable scheduling scheme and improve the competitiveness of wind farm in the electricity generation market, it's important to accurately forecast the short-term wind power. To reduce the influence of the nonlinear relationship between the disturbance factor and the wind power, the improved prediction model based on genetic algorithm and neural network method is established. To overcome the shortcomings of long training time of BP neural network and easy to fall into local minimum and improve the accuracy of the neural network, genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters and topology of neural network. The historical data is used as input to predict short-term wind power. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method is verified by the actual data of a certain wind farm as an example.

Improving urban wind flow predictions through data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Jorge; Gorle, Catherine

2017-11-01

Computational fluid dynamic is fundamentally important to several aspects in the design of sustainable and resilient urban environments. The prediction of the flow pattern for example can help to determine pedestrian wind comfort, air quality, optimal building ventilation strategies, and wind loading on buildings. However, the significant variability and uncertainty in the boundary conditions poses a challenge when interpreting results as a basis for design decisions. To improve our understanding of the uncertainties in the models and develop better predictive tools, we started a pilot field measurement campaign on Stanford University's campus combined with a detailed numerical prediction of the wind flow. The experimental data is being used to investigate the potential use of data assimilation and inverse techniques to better characterize the uncertainty in the results and improve the confidence in current wind flow predictions. We consider the incoming wind direction and magnitude as unknown parameters and perform a set of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulations to build a polynomial chaos expansion response surface at each sensor location. We subsequently use an inverse ensemble Kalman filter to retrieve an estimate for the probabilistic density function of the inflow parameters. Once these distributions are obtained, the forward analysis is repeated to obtain predictions for the flow field in the entire urban canopy and the results are compared with the experimental data. We would like to acknowledge high-performance computing support from Yellowstone (ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc) provided by NCAR.

Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

2004-01-01

One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Probabilistic maximum-value wind prediction for offshore environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Staid, Andrea; Pinson, Pierre; Guikema, Seth D.

2015-01-01

statistical models to predict the full distribution of the maximum-value wind speeds in a 3 h interval. We take a detailed look at the performance of linear models, generalized additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines models using meteorological covariates such as gust speed, wind speed......, convective available potential energy, Charnock, mean sea-level pressure and temperature, as given by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts forecasts. The models are trained to predict the mean value of maximum wind speed, and the residuals from training the models are used to develop...... the full probabilistic distribution of maximum wind speed. Knowledge of the maximum wind speed for an offshore location within a given period can inform decision-making regarding turbine operations, planned maintenance operations and power grid scheduling in order to improve safety and reliability...

Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

2010-01-01

Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

Automated lake-wide erosion predictions and economic damage calculations upstream of the Moses-Saunders power dam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuzek, P.; Baird, W.F.; International Joint Commission, Ottawa, ON

2008-01-01

This presentation discussed an automated flood and erosion prediction system designed for the upstream sections of the Moses-Saunders power dam. The system included a wave prediction component along with 3-D maps, hourly run-ups, geographic information system (GIS) tools and a hazard analysis tool. Parcel, reach, township, and county databases were used to populate the system. The prediction system was used to develop detailed study sites of shore units in the study area. Shoreline classes included sand and cohesive buffs, low banks, coarse beaches, and cobble or boulder lags. Time series plots for Lake Ontario water and wave levels were presented. Great Lakes ice cover data were also included in the system as well as erosion predictions from 1961 to 1995. The system was also used to develop bluff recession equations and cumulative recession analyses for different regulation plans. Cumulative bluff recession and protection requirements were outlined. Screenshots of the flood and erosion prediction system interface were also included. tabs., figs

Repetitive model predictive approach to individual pitch control of wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Stoustrup, Jakob; Odgaard, Peter Fogh

2011-01-01

prediction. As a consequence, individual pitch feed-forward control action is generated by the controller, taking ”future” wind disturbance into account. Information about the estimated wind spatial distribution one blade experience can be used in the prediction model to better control the next passing blade......Wind turbines are inherently exposed to nonuniform wind fields with of wind shear, tower shadow, and possible wake contributions. Asymmetrical aerodynamic rotor loads are a consequence of such periodic, repetitive wind disturbances experienced by the blades. A controller may estimate and use...... this peculiar disturbance pattern to better attenuate loads and regulate power by controlling the blade pitch angles individually. A novel model predictive (MPC) approach for individual pitch control of wind turbines is proposed in this paper. A repetitive wind disturbance model is incorporated into the MPC...

Wind Power Plant Prediction by Using Neural Networks: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Z.; Gao, W.; Wan, Y. H.; Muljadi, E.

2012-08-01

This paper introduces a method of short-term wind power prediction for a wind power plant by training neural networks based on historical data of wind speed and wind direction. The model proposed is shown to achieve a high accuracy with respect to the measured data.

Evaluation of different machine learning models for predicting and mapping the susceptibility of gully erosion

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmati, Omid; Tahmasebipour, Nasser; Haghizadeh, Ali; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

2017-12-01

Gully erosion constitutes a serious problem for land degradation in a wide range of environments. The main objective of this research was to compare the performance of seven state-of-the-art machine learning models (SVM with four kernel types, BP-ANN, RF, and BRT) to model the occurrence of gully erosion in the Kashkan-Poldokhtar Watershed, Iran. In the first step, a gully inventory map consisting of 65 gully polygons was prepared through field surveys. Three different sample data sets (S1, S2, and S3), including both positive and negative cells (70% for training and 30% for validation), were randomly prepared to evaluate the robustness of the models. To model the gully erosion susceptibility, 12 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors. Finally, the goodness-of-fit and prediction skill of the models were evaluated by different criteria, including efficiency percent, kappa coefficient, and the area under the ROC curves (AUC). In terms of accuracy, the RF, RBF-SVM, BRT, and P-SVM models performed excellently both in the degree of fitting and in predictive performance (AUC values well above 0.9), which resulted in accurate predictions. Therefore, these models can be used in other gully erosion studies, as they are capable of rapidly producing accurate and robust gully erosion susceptibility maps (GESMs) for decision-making and soil and water management practices. Furthermore, it was found that performance of RF and RBF-SVM for modelling gully erosion occurrence is quite stable when the learning and validation samples are changed.

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model: A dynamic approach for predicting soil loss on rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

In this study we present the improved Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM V2.3), a process-based erosion prediction tool specific for rangeland application. The article provides the mathematical formulation of the model and parameter estimation equations. Model performance is assessed agains...

Rain erosion of wind turbine blade coatings using discrete water jets: Effects of water cushioning, substrate geometry, impact distance, and coating properties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Shizhong; Dam-Johansen, Kim; Bernad, Pablo L.

2015-01-01

Rapid and reliable rain erosion screening of blade coatings for wind turbines is a strong need in the coatings industry. One possibility in this direction is the use of discrete water jets, where so-called jet slugs are impacted on a coating surface. Previous investigations have mapped...... the influence of water jet slug velocity and impact frequency. In the present work, the effects on coating erosion of water cushioning, substrate curvature, and water nozzle-coating distance were explored. The investigations showed that in some cases water cushioning (the presence of a liquid film...... on the coating surface prior to impact) influences the erosion. Contrary to this, substrate curvature and the water nozzle-coating distance (

Prediction models for wind speed at turbine locations in a wind farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas; Soltani, Mohsen

2011-01-01

In wind farms, individual turbines disturb the wind field by generating wakes that influence other turbines in the farm. From a control point of view, there is an interest in dynamic optimization of the balance between fatigue and production, and an understanding of the relationship between turbines...... on standard turbine measurements such as rotor speed and power produced, an effective wind speed, which represents the wind field averaged over the rotor disc, is derived. The effective wind speed estimator is based on a continuous–discrete extended Kalman filter that takes advantage of nonlinear time varying...... on the result related to effective wind speed, it is possible to predict wind speeds at neighboring turbines, with a separation of over 700 m, up to 1 min ahead reducing the error by 30% compared with a persistence method. The methodological results are demonstrated on data from an off-shore wind farm...

Optimal day-ahead wind-thermal unit commitment considering statistical and predicted features of wind speeds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Yanan; Dong, Jizhe; Ding, Lijuan

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A day–ahead wind–thermal unit commitment model is presented. • Wind speed transfer matrix is formed to depict the sequential wind features. • Spinning reserve setting considering wind power accuracy and variation is proposed. • Verified study is performed to check the correctness of the program. - Abstract: The increasing penetration of intermittent wind power affects the secure operation of power systems and leads to a requirement of robust and economic generation scheduling. This paper presents an optimal day–ahead wind–thermal generation scheduling method that considers the statistical and predicted features of wind speeds. In this method, the statistical analysis of historical wind data, which represents the local wind regime, is first implemented. Then, according to the statistical results and the predicted wind power, the spinning reserve requirements for the scheduling period are calculated. Based on the calculated spinning reserve requirements, the wind–thermal generation scheduling is finally conducted. To validate the program, a verified study is performed on a test system. Then, numerical studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method are conducted.

Erosion of Earthen Levees by Wave Action

Science.gov (United States)

Ozeren, Y.; Wren, D. G.; Reba, M. L.

2016-02-01

Earthen levees of aquaculture and irrigation reservoirs in the United States often experience significant erosion due to wind-generated waves. Typically constructed using local soils, unprotected levees are subjected to rapid erosion and retreat due to wind generated waves and surface runoff. Only a limited amount of published work addresses the erosion rates for unprotected levees, and producers who rely on irrigation reservoirs need an economic basis for selecting a protection method for vulnerable levees. This, in turn, means that a relationship between wave energy and erosion of cohesive soils is needed. In this study, laboratory experiments were carried out in order to quantify wave induced levee erosion and retreat. A model erodible bank was packed using a soil consisting of approximately 14% sand, 73% silt, and 13% clay in a 20.6 m long 0.7 m wide and 1.2 m deep wave tank at the USDA-ARS, National Sedimentation Laboratory in Oxford MS. The geometry of the levee face was monitored by digital camera and the waves were measured by means of 6 capacitance wave staffs. Relationships were established between levee erosion, edge and retreat rates, and incident wave energy.

Prediction for disruption erosion of ITER plasma facing components; a comparison of experimental and numerical results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laan, J.G. van der; Akiba, M.; Seki, M.; Hassanein, A.; Tanchuk, V.

1991-01-01

An evaluation is given for the prediction for disruption erosion in the International Thermonuclear Engineering Reactor (ITER). At first, a description is given of the relation between plasma operating paramters and system dimensions to the predictions of loading parameters of Plasma Facing Components (PFC) in off-normal events. Numerical results from ITER parties on the prediction of disruption erosion are compared for a few typical cases and discussed. Apart from some differences in the codes, the observed discrepancies can be ascribed to different input data of material properties and boundary conditions. Some physical models for vapour shielding and their effects on numerical results are mentioned. Experimental results from ITER parties, obtained with electron and laser beams, are also compared. Erosion rates for the candidate ITER PFC materials are shown to depend very strongly on the energy deposition parameters, which are based on plasma physics considerations, and on the assumed material loss mechanisms. Lifetimes estimates for divertor plate and first wall armour are given for carbon, tungsten and beryllium, based on the erosion in the thermal quench phase. (orig.)

Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

2005-01-01

Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

Using data-driven approach for wind power prediction: A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taslimi Renani, Ehsan; Elias, Mohamad Fathi Mohamad; Rahim, Nasrudin Abd.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Double exponential smoothing is the most accurate model in wind speed prediction. • A two-stage feature selection method is proposed to select most important inputs. • Direct prediction illustrates better accuracy than indirect prediction. • Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system outperforms data mining algorithms. • Random forest performs the worst compared to other data mining algorithm. - Abstract: Although wind energy is intermittent and stochastic in nature, it is increasingly important in the power generation due to its sustainability and pollution-free. Increased utilization of wind energy sources calls for more robust and efficient prediction models to mitigate uncertainties associated with wind power. This research compares two different approaches in wind power forecasting which are indirect and direct prediction methods. In indirect method, several times series are applied to forecast the wind speed, whereas the logistic function with five parameters is then used to forecast the wind power. In this study, backtracking search algorithm with novel crossover and mutation operators is employed to find the best parameters of five-parameter logistic function. A new feature selection technique, combining the mutual information and neural network is proposed in this paper to extract the most informative features with a maximum relevancy and minimum redundancy. From the comparative study, the results demonstrate that, in the direct prediction approach where the historical weather data are used to predict the wind power generation directly, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system outperforms five data mining algorithms namely, random forest, M5Rules, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine and multilayer perceptron. Moreover, it is also found that the mean absolute percentage error of the direct prediction method using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system is 1.47% which is approximately less than half of the error obtained with the

Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

Science.gov (United States)

D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

2013-01-01

At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillslopes and channels can be created and simulated with this GUI. However,...

Robust Model Predictive Control of a Wind Turbine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mirzaei, Mahmood; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

2012-01-01

In this work the problem of robust model predictive control (robust MPC) of a wind turbine in the full load region is considered. A minimax robust MPC approach is used to tackle the problem. Nonlinear dynamics of the wind turbine are derived by combining blade element momentum (BEM) theory...... of the uncertain system is employed and a norm-bounded uncertainty model is used to formulate a minimax model predictive control. The resulting optimization problem is simplified by semidefinite relaxation and the controller obtained is applied on a full complexity, high fidelity wind turbine model. Finally...... and first principle modeling of the turbine flexible structure. Thereafter the nonlinear model is linearized using Taylor series expansion around system operating points. Operating points are determined by effective wind speed and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is employed to estimate this. In addition...

Empirical models for predicting wind potential for wind energy applications in rural locations of Nigeria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Odo, F.C. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Akubue, G.U.; Offiah, S.U.; Ugwuoke, P.E. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria)

2013-07-01

In this paper, we use the correlation between the average wind speed and ambient temperature to develop models for predicting wind potentials for two Nigerian locations. Assuming that the troposphere is a typical heterogeneous mixture of ideal gases, we find that for the studied locations, wind speed clearly correlates with ambient temperature in a simple polynomial of 3rd degree. The coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error of the models are 0.81; 0.0024 and 0.56; 0.0041, respectively, for Enugu (6.40N; 7.50E) and Owerri (5.50N; 7.00E). These results suggest that the temperature-based model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, in predicting wind potentials needed for preliminary design assessment of wind energy conversion devices for the locations and others with similar meteorological conditions.

Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

2011-01-01

The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Innovazione, Universita del Salento, Via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce (Italy)

2011-04-15

The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

Short-term prediction method of wind speed series based on fractal interpolation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiu, Chunbo; Wang, Tiantian; Tian, Meng; Li, Yanqing; Cheng, Yi

2014-01-01

Highlights: • An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed. • The chaos optimization algorithm is used to obtain the iterated function system. • The fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction of wind speed series is performed. - Abstract: In order to improve the prediction performance of the wind speed series, the rescaled range analysis is used to analyze the fractal characteristics of the wind speed series. An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed to predict the wind speed series whose Hurst exponents are close to 1. An optimization function which is composed of the interpolation error and the constraint items of the vertical scaling factors in the fractal interpolation iterated function system is designed. The chaos optimization algorithm is used to optimize the function to resolve the optimal vertical scaling factors. According to the self-similarity characteristic and the scale invariance, the fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction can be performed by extending the fractal characteristic from internal interval to external interval. Simulation results show that the fractal interpolation prediction method can get better prediction result than others for the wind speed series with the fractal characteristic, and the prediction performance of the proposed method can be improved further because the fractal characteristic of its iterated function system is similar to that of the predicted wind speed series

Predicting rainfall erosivity by momentum and kinetic energy in Mediterranean environment

Science.gov (United States)

Carollo, Francesco G.; Ferro, Vito; Serio, Maria A.

2018-05-01

Rainfall erosivity is an index that describes the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion and it is used around the world for assessing and predicting soil loss on agricultural lands. Erosivity can be represented in terms of both rainfall momentum and kinetic energy, both calculated per unit time and area. Contrasting results on the representativeness of these two variables are available: some authors stated that momentum and kinetic energy are practically interchangeable in soil loss estimation while other found that kinetic energy is the most suitable expression of rainfall erosivity. The direct and continuous measurements of momentum and kinetic energy by a disdrometer allow also to establish a relationship with rainfall intensity at the study site. At first in this paper a comparison between the momentum-rainfall intensity relationships measured at Palermo and El Teularet by an optical disdrometer is presented. For a fixed rainfall intensity the measurements showed that the rainfall momentum values measured at the two experimental sites are not coincident. However both datasets presented a threshold value of rainfall intensity over which the rainfall momentum assumes a quasi-constant value. Then the reliability of a theoretically deduced relationship, linking momentum, rainfall intensity and median volume diameter, is positively verified using measured raindrop size distributions. An analysis to assess which variable, momentum or kinetic energy per unit area and time, is the best predictor of erosivity in Italy and Spain was also carried out. This investigation highlighted that the rainfall kinetic energy per unit area and time can be substituted by rainfall momentum as index for estimating the rainfall erosivity, and this result does not depend on the site where precipitation occurs. Finally, rainfall intensity measurements and soil loss data collected from the bare plots equipped at Sparacia experimental area were used to verify the reliability of some

Testing and prediction of erosion-corrosion for corrosion resistant alloys used in the oil and gas production industry

Science.gov (United States)

Rincon, Hernan E.

The corrosion behavior of CRAs has been thoroughly investigated and documented in the public literature by many researchers; however, little work has been done to investigate erosion-corrosion of such alloys. When sand particles are entrained in the flow, the degradation mechanism is different from that observed for sand-free corrosive environment. There is a need in the oil and gas industry to define safe service limits for utilization of such materials. The effects of flow conditions, sand rate, pH and temperature on the erosion-corrosion of CRAs were widely studied. An extensive experimental work was conducted using scratch tests and flow loop tests using several experimental techniques. At high erosivity conditions, a synergistic effect between erosion and corrosion was observed. Under the high sand rate conditions tested, erosivity is severe enough to damage the passive layer protecting the CRA thereby enhancing the corrosion rate. In most cases there is likely a competition between the rates of protective film removal due to mechanical erosion and protective film healing. Synergism occurs for each of the three alloys examined (13Cr and Super13Cr and 22Cr); however, the degree of synergism is quite different for the three alloys and may not be significant for 22Cr for field conditions where erosivities are typically much lower that those occurring in the small bore loop used in this research. Predictions of the corrosion component of erosion-corrosion based on scratch test data compared reasonably well to test results from flow loops for the three CRAs at high erosivity conditions. Second order behavior appears to be an appropriate and useful model for representing the repassivation process of CRAs. A framework for a procedure to predict penetration rates for erosion-corrosion conditions was developed based on the second order model behavior observed for the re-healing process of the passive film of CRAs and on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations

An adaptive short-term prediction scheme for wind energy storage management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blonbou, Ruddy; Monjoly, Stephanie; Dorville, Jean-Francois

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → We develop a real time algorithm for grid-connected wind energy storage management. → The method aims to guarantee, with ±5% error margin, the power sent to the grid. → Dynamic scheduling of energy storage is based on short-term energy prediction. → Accurate predictions reduce the need in storage capacity. -- Abstract: Efficient forecasting scheme that includes some information on the likelihood of the forecast and based on a better knowledge of the wind variations characteristics along with their influence on power output variation is of key importance for the optimal integration of wind energy in island's power system. In the Guadeloupean archipelago (French West-Indies), with a total wind power capacity of 25 MW; wind energy can represent up to 5% of the instantaneous electricity production. At this level, wind energy contribution can be equivalent to the current network primary control reserve, which causes balancing difficult. The share of wind energy is due to grow even further since the objective is set to reach 118 MW by 2020. It is an absolute evidence for the network operator that due to security concerns of the electrical grid, the share of wind generation should not increase unless solutions are found to solve the prediction problem. The University of French West-Indies and Guyana has developed a short-term wind energy prediction scheme that uses artificial neural networks and adaptive learning procedures based on Bayesian approach and Gaussian approximation. This paper reports the results of the evaluation of the proposed approach; the improvement with respect to the simple persistent prediction model was globally good. A discussion on how such a tool combined with energy storage capacity could help to smooth the wind power variation and improve the wind energy penetration rate into island utility network is also proposed.

Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

2016-03-01

Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

Science.gov (United States)

Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

1983-01-01

A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

Development of Wind Farm AEP Prediction Program Considering Directional Wake Effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Kyoungboo; Cho, Kyungho; Huh, Jongchul [Jeju Nat’l Univ., Jeju (Korea, Republic of)

2017-07-15

For accurate AEP prediction in a wind farm, it is necessary to effectively calculate the wind speed reduction and the power loss due to the wake effect in each wind direction. In this study, a computer program for AEP prediction considering directional wake effect was developed. The results of the developed program were compared with the actual AEP of the wind farm and the calculation result of existing commercial software to confirm the accuracy of prediction. The applied equations are identical with those of commercial software based on existing theories, but there is a difference in the calculation process of the detection of the wake effect area in each wind direction. As a result, the developed program predicted to be less than 1% of difference to the actual capacity factor and showed more than 2% of better results compared with the existing commercial software.

Improved USLE-K factor prediction: A case study on water erosion areas in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bin Wang

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Soil erodibility (K-factor is an essential factor in soil erosion prediction and conservation practises. The major obstacles to any accurate, large-scale soil erodibility estimation are the lack of necessary data on soil characteristics and the misuse of variable K-factor calculators. In this study, we assessed the performance of available erodibility estimators Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE, Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC and the Geometric Mean Diameter based (Dg model for different geographic regions based on the Chinese soil erodibility database (CSED. Results showed that previous estimators overestimated almost all K-values. Furthermore, only the USLE and Dg approaches could be directly and reliably applicable to black and loess soil regions. Based on the nonlinear best fitting techniques, we improved soil erodibility prediction by combining Dg and soil organic matter (SOM. The NSE, R2 and RE values were 0.94, 0.67 and 9.5% after calibrating the results independently; similar model performance was showed for the validation process. The results obtained via the proposed approach were more accurate that the former K-value predictions. Moreover, those improvements allowed us to effectively establish a regional soil erodibility map (1:250,000 scale of water erosion areas in China. The mean K-value of Chinese water erosion regions was 0.0321 (t ha h·(ha MJ mm−1 with a standard deviation of 0.0107 (t ha h·(ha MJ mm−1; K-values present a decreasing trend from North to South in water erosion areas in China. The yield soil erodibility dataset also satisfactorily corresponded to former K-values from different scales (local, regional, and national.

WPPT, a tool for on-line wind power prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skov Nielsen, T. [Dept. of Mathematical Modelling (IMM-DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Madsen, H. [Dept. of Mathematical Modelling (IMM-DTU) Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (Denmark)

2004-07-01

This paper dsecribes VPPT (Wind Power Prediction Tool), an application for assessing the future available wind power up to 36 hours ahead in time. WPPT has been installed in the Eltra/Elsam central dispatch center since October 1997. The paper describes the prediction model used, the actual implementation of WPPT as well as the experience gained by the operators in the dispatch center (au)

Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Landberg, L.

2001-01-01

This paper will describe a system which predicts the expected power output of a number of wind farms. The system is automatic and operates on-line. The paper will quantify the accuracy of the predictions and will also give examples of the performance for specific storm events. An actual...

Using Wind Tunnels to Predict Bird Mortality in Wind Farms: The Case of Griffon Vultures

OpenAIRE

de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F. E.

2012-01-01

Background: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. Methodology/Principal Findings: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topo...

Verification of some numerical models for operationally predicting mesoscale winds aloft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cornett, J.S.; Randerson, D.

1977-01-01

Four numerical models are described for predicting mesoscale winds aloft for a 6 h period. These models are all tested statistically against persistence as the control forecast and against predictions made by operational forecasters. Mesoscale winds aloft data were used to initialize the models and to verify the predictions on an hourly basis. The model yielding the smallest root-mean-square vector errors (RMSVE's) was the one based on the most physics which included advection, ageostrophic acceleration, vertical mixing and friction. Horizontal advection was found to be the most important term in reducing the RMSVE's followed by ageostrophic acceleration, vertical advection, surface friction and vertical mixing. From a comparison of the mean absolute errors based on up to 72 independent wind-profile predictions made by operational forecasters, by the most complete model, and by persistence, we conclude that the model is the best wind predictor in the free air. In the boundary layer, the results tend to favor the forecaster for direction predictions. The speed predictions showed no overall superiority in any of these three models

Load prediction of stall regulated wind turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjoerck, A.; Dahlberg, J.Aa. [Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Carlen, I. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Div. of Marine Structural Engineering; Ganander, H. [Teknikgruppen AB, Sollentua (Sweden)

1996-12-01

Measurements of blade loads on a turbine situated in a small wind farm shows that the highest blade loads occur during operation close to the peak power i.e. when the turbine operates in the stall region. In this study the extensive experimental data base has been utilised to compare loads in selected campaigns with corresponding load predictions. The predictions are based on time domain simulations of the wind turbine structure, performed by the aeroelastic code VIDYN. In the calculations a model were adopted in order to include the effects of dynamic stall. This paper describes the work carried out so far within the project and key results. 5 refs, 10 figs

[Biological soil crust nitrogenase activity and its responses to hydro-thermic factors in different erosion regions on the Loess Plateau, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Ming, Jiao; Zhao, Yun-Ge; Xu, Ming-Xiang; Yang, Li-Na; Wang, Ai-Guo

2013-07-01

Based on field survey, the biological soil crusts at their stable development stage were collected from the water erosion region, water-wind erosion region, and wind erosion region on the Loess Plateau, aimed to study the effects of the variations of moisture and temperature on the crusts nitrogenase activity (NA). The NA of the crusts in the erosion regions decreased in the order of water erosion region (127.7 micromol x m(-2) x h(-1)) > water-wind erosion region (34.6 micromol x m(-2) x h(-1)) > wind erosion region (6.0 micromol x m(-2) x h(-1)), and the optimal temperature for the crust nitrogen fixation was 35 degrees C, 25 degrees C, and 15 degrees C, respectively. At the optimal temperature and 100% -40% field water-holding capacity, the NA of the crusts from the water erosion and water-wind erosion regions had no significant difference. The NA of the crusts from the wind erosion region was more sensitive to the variation of moisture, showing a dramatic decline when the moisture decreased to 80% field water-holding capacity, and totally lost when the moisture decreased to 20% field water-holding capacity. The differences in the NA of the crusts from the three erosion regions and the responses of the NA to the variations of moisture and temperature were likely associated with the climate, environment, and the crust species composition.

7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

.... (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R × K... 22161.) (b) The factors in the USLE equation are: (1) A is the estimation of average annual soil loss in... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water...

Selection of References in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

2015-01-01

a model predictive controller for a wind turbine. One of the important aspects for a tracking control problem is how to setup the optimal reference tracking problem, as it might be relevant to track, e.g., the three concurrent references: optimal pitch angle, optimal rotational speed, and optimal power......Lowering the cost of energy is one of the major focus areas in the wind turbine industry. Recent research has indicated that wind turbine controllers based on model predictive control methods can be useful in obtaining this objective. A number of design considerations have to be made when designing....... The importance if the individual references differ depending in particular on the wind speed. In this paper we investigate the performance of a reference tracking model predictive controller with two different setups of the used optimal reference signals. The controllers are evaluated using an industrial high...

Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) Users Guide

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

ARL-TR-7573● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s Guide by David P Sauter...manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an official endorsement or approval of the use thereof. Destroy this report when it is no longer needed. Do...not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7573 ● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER

Modeling the fluid/soil interface erosion in the Hole Erosion Test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kissi B.

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon which yields at its final stage to insidious fluid leakages under the hydraulic infrastructures known as piping and which are the main cause of their rupture. The Hole Erosion Test is commonly used to quantify the rate of piping erosion. In this work, The Hole Erosion Test is modelled by using Fluent software package. The aim is to predict the erosion rate of soil during the hole erosion test. The renormalization group theory – based k–ε turbulence model equations are used. This modelling makes it possible describing the effect of the clay concentration in flowing water on erosion. Unlike the usual one dimensional models, the proposed modelling shows that erosion is not uniform erosion along the hole length. In particular, the concentration of clay is found to increase noticeably the erosion rate.

Forest soil erosion prediction as influenced by wildfire and roads

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, L.; Brooks, E. S.; Elliot, W.

2017-12-01

Following a wildfire, the risk of erosion is greatly increased. Forest road networks may change the underlying topography and alter natural flow paths. Flow accumulation and energy can be redistributed by roads and alter soil erosion processes. A LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) DEM makes it possible to quantify road topography, and estimate how roads influence surface runoff and sediment transport in a fire-disturbed watershed. With GIS technology and a soil erosion model, this study was carried out to evaluate the effect of roads on erosion and sediment yield following the Emerald Fire southwest of Lake Tahoe. The GeoWEPP model was used to estimate onsite erosion and offsite sediment delivery from each hillslope polygon and channel segment before and after fire disturbance in part of the burned area. The GeoWEPP flow path method was used to estimate the post-fire erosion rate of each GIS pixel. A 2-m resolution LiDAR DEM was used as the terrain layer. The Emerald Fire greatly increased onsite soil loss and sediment yields within the fire boundary. Following the fire, 78.71% of the burned area had predicted sediment yields greater than 4 Mg/ha/yr, compared to the preburn condition when 65.3% of the study area was estimated to generate a sediment yield less than 0.25 Mg/ha/yr. Roads had a remarkable influence on the flow path simulation and sub-catchments delineation, affecting sediment transport process spatially. Road segments acted as barriers that intercepted overland runoff and reduced downslope flow energy accumulation, therefore reducing onsite soil loss downslope of the road. Roads also changed the boundary of sub-catchment and defined new hydrological units. Road segments can transport sediment from one sub-catchment to another. This in turn leads to the redistribution of sediment and alters sediment yield for some sub-catchments. Culverts and road drain systems are of vital importance in rerouting runoff and sediment. Conservation structures can be

Pelton turbine Needle erosion prediction based on 3D three- phase flow simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chongji, Z; Yexiang, X; Wei, Z; Yangyang, Y; Lei, C; Zhengwei, W

2014-01-01

Pelton turbine, which applied to the high water head and small flow rate, is widely used in the mountainous area. During the operation period the sediment contained in the water does not only induce the abrasion of the buckets, but also leads to the erosion at the nozzle which may damage the needle structure. The nozzle and needle structure are mainly used to form high quality cylindrical jet and increase the efficiency of energy exchange in the runner to the most. Thus the needle erosion will lead to the deformation of jet, and then may cause the efficiency loss and cavitation. The favourable prediction of abrasion characteristic of needle can effectively guide the optimization design and maintenance of needle structure. This paper simulated the unsteady three-dimensional multi-phase flow in the nozzle and injected jet flow. As the jet containing water and sediment is injected into the free atmosphere air with high velocity, the VOF model was adopted to predict the water and air flow. The sediment is simplified into round solid particle and the discrete particle model (DPM) was employed to predict the needle abrasion characteristic. The sand particle tracks were analyzed to interpret the mechanism of sand erosion on the needle surface. And the numerical result of needle abrasion was obtained and compared with the abrasion field observation. The similarity of abrasion pattern between the numerical results and field observation illustrated the validity of the 3D multi-phase flow simulation method

Pelton turbine Needle erosion prediction based on 3D three- phase flow simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Chongji, Z.; Yexiang, X.; Wei, Z.; Yangyang, Y.; Lei, C.; Zhengwei, W.

2014-03-01

Pelton turbine, which applied to the high water head and small flow rate, is widely used in the mountainous area. During the operation period the sediment contained in the water does not only induce the abrasion of the buckets, but also leads to the erosion at the nozzle which may damage the needle structure. The nozzle and needle structure are mainly used to form high quality cylindrical jet and increase the efficiency of energy exchange in the runner to the most. Thus the needle erosion will lead to the deformation of jet, and then may cause the efficiency loss and cavitation. The favourable prediction of abrasion characteristic of needle can effectively guide the optimization design and maintenance of needle structure. This paper simulated the unsteady three-dimensional multi-phase flow in the nozzle and injected jet flow. As the jet containing water and sediment is injected into the free atmosphere air with high velocity, the VOF model was adopted to predict the water and air flow. The sediment is simplified into round solid particle and the discrete particle model (DPM) was employed to predict the needle abrasion characteristic. The sand particle tracks were analyzed to interpret the mechanism of sand erosion on the needle surface. And the numerical result of needle abrasion was obtained and compared with the abrasion field observation. The similarity of abrasion pattern between the numerical results and field observation illustrated the validity of the 3D multi-phase flow simulation method.

Vegetation morphologic and aerodynamic characteristics reduce aeolian erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Miri, Abbas; Dragovich, Deirdre; Dong, Zhibao

2017-10-09

Vegetation cover is crucial to controlling aeolian erosion but highly efficient vegetation is critical. How this efficiency is influenced by vegetation response to airflow is not clear. Here we evaluate the responses of Cosmos bipinnatus and Ligustrum lucidum Ait to a range of wind speeds in a wind tunnel. For both species, we calculate shelter effect and sand flux. We show that plant effectiveness in reducing wind speed and sediment transport is linked to their aerodynamic response to airflow which results from their morphology. We demonstrate that in low-density cover the flow-response and resistance of individuals is most critical in the optimal effectiveness of a canopy. Our wind tunnel experiment suggests that vegetation morphology and structure must be priority parameters in facilitating aeolian erosion control.

Predicting annoyance by wind turbine noise

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, S.A.; Vos, H.; Eisses, A.R.; Pedersen, E.

2010-01-01

While wind turbines have beneficial effects for the environment, they inevitably generate environmental noise. In order to protect residents against unacceptable levels of noise, exposure-response relationships are needed to predict the expected percentage of people annoyed or highly annoyed at a

Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

2013-01-01

, we simplify state prediction for the MPC. Consequently, the control problem of the nonlinear system is simplified into a quadratic programming. We consider uncertainty in the wind propagation time, which is the traveling time of wind from the LIDAR measurement point to the rotor. An algorithm based......The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...... on wind speed estimation and measurements from the LIDAR is devised to find an estimate of the delay and compensate for it before it is used in the controller. Comparisons between the MPC with error compensation, the MPC without error compensation and an MPC with re-linearization at each sample point...

Measurement of erosion: Is it possible?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stroosnijder, L.

2005-01-01

Reasons for erosion measurements are: (1) to determine the environmental impact of erosion and conservation practices, (2) scientific erosion research; (3) development and evaluation of erosion control technology; (4) development of erosion prediction technology and (5) allocation of conservation

Prediction and analysis of infra and low-frequency noise of upwind horizontal axis wind turbine using statistical wind speed model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Gwang-Se; Cheong, Cheolung, E-mail: ccheong@pusan.ac.kr [School of Mechanical Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-745, Rep. of Korea (Korea, Republic of)

2014-12-15

Despite increasing concern about low-frequency noise of modern large horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs), few studies have focused on its origin or its prediction methods. In this paper, infra- and low-frequency (the ILF) wind turbine noise are closely examined and an efficient method is developed for its prediction. Although most previous studies have assumed that the ILF noise consists primarily of blade passing frequency (BPF) noise components, these tonal noise components are seldom identified in the measured noise spectrum, except for the case of downwind wind turbines. In reality, since modern HAWTs are very large, during rotation, a single blade of the turbine experiences inflow with variation in wind speed in time as well as in space, breaking periodic perturbations of the BPF. Consequently, this transforms acoustic contributions at the BPF harmonics into broadband noise components. In this study, the ILF noise of wind turbines is predicted by combining Lowson’s acoustic analogy with the stochastic wind model, which is employed to reproduce realistic wind speed conditions. In order to predict the effects of these wind conditions on pressure variation on the blade surface, unsteadiness in the incident wind speed is incorporated into the XFOIL code by varying incident flow velocities on each blade section, which depend on the azimuthal locations of the rotating blade. The calculated surface pressure distribution is subsequently used to predict acoustic pressure at an observing location by using Lowson’s analogy. These predictions are compared with measured data, which ensures that the present method can reproduce the broadband characteristics of the measured low-frequency noise spectrum. Further investigations are carried out to characterize the IFL noise in terms of pressure loading on blade surface, narrow-band noise spectrum and noise maps around the turbine.

Prediction and analysis of infra and low-frequency noise of upwind horizontal axis wind turbine using statistical wind speed model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gwang-Se Lee

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Despite increasing concern about low-frequency noise of modern large horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs, few studies have focused on its origin or its prediction methods. In this paper, infra- and low-frequency (the ILF wind turbine noise are closely examined and an efficient method is developed for its prediction. Although most previous studies have assumed that the ILF noise consists primarily of blade passing frequency (BPF noise components, these tonal noise components are seldom identified in the measured noise spectrum, except for the case of downwind wind turbines. In reality, since modern HAWTs are very large, during rotation, a single blade of the turbine experiences inflow with variation in wind speed in time as well as in space, breaking periodic perturbations of the BPF. Consequently, this transforms acoustic contributions at the BPF harmonics into broadband noise components. In this study, the ILF noise of wind turbines is predicted by combining Lowson’s acoustic analogy with the stochastic wind model, which is employed to reproduce realistic wind speed conditions. In order to predict the effects of these wind conditions on pressure variation on the blade surface, unsteadiness in the incident wind speed is incorporated into the XFOIL code by varying incident flow velocities on each blade section, which depend on the azimuthal locations of the rotating blade. The calculated surface pressure distribution is subsequently used to predict acoustic pressure at an observing location by using Lowson’s analogy. These predictions are compared with measured data, which ensures that the present method can reproduce the broadband characteristics of the measured low-frequency noise spectrum. Further investigations are carried out to characterize the IFL noise in terms of pressure loading on blade surface, narrow-band noise spectrum and noise maps around the turbine.

How to diagnose rheumatoid arthritis early: a prediction model for persistent (erosive) arthritis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, Henk; le Cessie, Saskia; Vos, Koen; Breedveld, Ferdinand C.; Hazes, Johanna M. W.

2002-01-01

To develop a clinical model for the prediction, at the first visit, of 3 forms of arthritis outcome: self-limiting, persistent nonerosive, and persistent erosive arthritis. A standardized diagnostic evaluation was performed on 524 consecutive, newly referred patients with early arthritis.

Control of Eolian soil erosion from waste site surface barriers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ligotke, M.W.

1994-11-01

Physical models were tested in a wind tunnel to determine optimum surface-ravel admixtures for protecting silt-loam soil from erosion by, wind and saltating, sand stresses. The tests were performed to support the development of a natural-material surface barrier for and waste sites. Plans call for a 2-m deep silt-loam soil reservoir to retain infiltrating water from rainfall and snowmelt. The objective of the study was to develop a gravel admixture that would produce an erosion-resistant surface layer during, periods of extended dry climatic stress. Thus, tests were performed using simulated surfaces representing dry, unvegetated conditions present just after construction, after a wildfire, or during an extended drought. Surfaces were prepared using silt-loam soil mixed with various grades of sand and Travel. Wind-induced surface shear stresses were controlled over the test surfaces, as were saltating, sand mass flow rates and intensities. Tests were performed at wind speeds that approximated and exceeded local 100-year peak gust intensities. Surface armors produced by pea gravel admixtures were shown to provide the best protection from wind and saltating sand stresses. Compared with unprotected silt-loam surfaces, armored surfaces reduced erosion rates by more than 96%. Based in part on wind tunnel results, a pea gravel admixture of 15% will be added to the top 1 in of soil in a prototype barrier under construction in 1994. Field tests are planned at the prototype site to provide data for comparison with wind tunnel results

A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

2012-01-01

As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

Compressor Impeller Erosion Resistant Surface Treatment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Riley, Michael

2000-01-01

...). Coatings based on tungsten carbide tantalum carbide. titanium carbide all with a cobalt matrix were evaluated for high velocity particle erosion in conventional wear test studies as well as wind tunnel testing...

A new approach to very short term wind speed prediction using k-nearest neighbor classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yesilbudak, Mehmet; Sagiroglu, Seref; Colak, Ilhami

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Wind speed parameter was predicted in an n-tupled inputs using k-NN classification. ► The effects of input parameters, nearest neighbors and distance metrics were analyzed. ► Many useful and reasonable inferences were uncovered using the developed model. - Abstract: Wind energy is an inexhaustible energy source and wind power production has been growing rapidly in recent years. However, wind power has a non-schedulable nature due to wind speed variations. Hence, wind speed prediction is an indispensable requirement for power system operators. This paper predicts wind speed parameter in an n-tupled inputs using k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification and analyzes the effects of input parameters, nearest neighbors and distance metrics on wind speed prediction. The k-NN classification model was developed using the object oriented programming techniques and includes Manhattan and Minkowski distance metrics except from Euclidean distance metric on the contrary of literature. The k-NN classification model which uses wind direction, air temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity parameters in a 4-tupled space achieved the best wind speed prediction for k = 5 in the Manhattan distance metric. Differently, the k-NN classification model which uses wind direction, air temperature and atmospheric pressure parameters in a 3-tupled inputs gave the worst wind speed prediction for k = 1 in the Minkowski distance metric

Hourly Wind Speed Interval Prediction in Arid Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

2013-12-01

context, probabilistic forecasts might be more relevant than point forecasts for the planner to build scenarios In this paper, we are interested in estimating predictive intervals of the hourly wind speed measures in few cities in United Arab emirates (UAE). More precisely, given a wind speed time series, our target is to forecast the wind speed at any specific hour during the day and provide in addition an interval with the coverage probability 0flexible because it does not need a specification of the model to work with (such as normal distribution or a linear relation). Here, we use a covariable that is correlated to the wind speed. In practice, many possible choices of the covariate are available. In fact, in addition to its historical data, the wind speed is highly correlated to temperature, humidity and wind direction. In this paper a comparison, in terms of Mean Absolute Prediction Errors and Interquartile Range, between those choices will be provided to show which covariates are more suitable to forecast wind speed.

Water erosion risk prediction in eucalyptus plantations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mayesse Aparecida da Silva

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Eucalyptus plantations are normally found in vulnerable ecosystems such as steep slope, soil with low natural fertility and lands that were degraded by agriculture. The objective of this study was to obtain Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE factors and use them to estimate water erosion risk in regions with eucalyptus planted. The USLE factors were obtained in field plots under natural rainfall in the Rio Doce Basin, MG, Brazil, and the model applied to assess erosion risk using USLE in a Geographic Information System. The study area showed rainfall-runoff erosivity values from 10,721 to 10,642 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Some soils (Latosols had very low erodibility values (2.0 x 10-4 and 1.0 x 10-4t h MJ-1 mm-1, the topographic factor ranged from 0.03 to 10.57 and crop and management factor values obtained for native forest, eucalyptus and planted pasture were 0.09, 0.12 and 0.22, respectively. Water erosion risk estimates for current land use indicated that the areas where should receive more attention were mainly areas with greater topographic factors and those with Cambisols. Planning of forestry activities in this region should consider implementation of other conservation practices beyond those already used, reducing areas with a greater risk of soil erosion and increasing areas with very low risk.

Model Predictive Voltage Control of Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei

2018-01-01

the efficacy of the proposed WFVC, two case scenarios were designed: the wind farm is under normal operating conditions and the internal wind power fluctuation is considered; and besides internal power fluctuation, the impact of the external grid on the wind farm is considered.......This chapter proposes an autonomous wind farm voltage controller (WFVC) based on model predictive control (MPC). It also introduces the analytical expressions for the voltage sensitivity to tap positions of a transformer. The chapter then describes the discrete models for the wind turbine...... generators (WTGs) and static var compensators (SVCs)/static var generators (SVGs). Next, it describes the implementation of the on‐load tap changing (OLTC) in the MPC. Furthermore, the chapter examines the cost function as well as the constraints of the MPC‐based WFVC for both control modes. In order to test...

Wind-eroded silicate as a source of hydrogen peroxide on Mars

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bak, Ebbe Norskov; Merrison, Jonathan P.; Jensen, Svend Knak

-sists of silicates [4] that due to wind erosion has a very fine grained texture. Based on the composition of the surface material and investigations showing that crushing of silicates can give rise to reactive oxygen species [5], we hypothesized that wind erosion of silicates can explain the reactivity of Martian...... soil. Wind-erosion of silicate could thus be one of several causes of the soil’s reactivity. As our experiments show, the globally distributed wind eroded silicate dust can lead to the production of hydrogen peroxide which might explain the reactivity of the Martian soil. The reactivity of eroded...

Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

2016-08-01

The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

Artificial intelligence to predict short-term wind speed

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pinto, Tiago; Soares, Joao; Ramos, Sergio; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - ISEP

2012-07-01

The use of renewable energy is increasing exponentially in many countries due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on energy and on the environment makes the efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system extremely important. Several European countries have been seeing a high penetration of wind power, representing, gradually, a significant penetration on electricity generation. The introduction of wind power in the network power system causes new challenges for the power system operator due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind power generation. As result, the scheduling dispatch has a significantly portion of uncertainty. In order to deal with the uncertainty in wind power and, with that, introduce improvements in the power system operator efficiency, the wind power forecasting may reveal as a useful tool. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology to forecast wind speed. This method is based on the use of data mining techniques applied to a real database of historical wind data. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years to predict wind speed at 5 minute intervals. (orig.)

Soil erosion model predictions using parent material/soil texture-based parameters compared to using site-specific parameters

Science.gov (United States)

R. B. Foltz; W. J. Elliot; N. S. Wagenbrenner

2011-01-01

Forested areas disturbed by access roads produce large amounts of sediment. One method to predict erosion and, hence, manage forest roads is the use of physically based soil erosion models. A perceived advantage of a physically based model is that it can be parameterized at one location and applied at another location with similar soil texture or geological parent...

Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

2010-12-01

Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on

PREDICTION OF POWER GENERATION OF SMALL SCALE VERTICAL AXIS WIND TURBINE USING FUZZY LOGIC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Altab Hossain

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Renewable energy from the wind turbine has been focused for the alternative source of power generation due to the following advances of the of the wind turbine. Firstly, the wind turbine is highly efficient and eco-friendly. Secondly, the turbine has the ability to response for the changeable power generation based on the wind velocity and structural framework. However, the competitive efficiency of the wind turbine is necessary to successfully alternate the conventional power sources. The most relevant factor which affects the overall efficiency of the wind turbine is the wind velocity and the relative turbine dimensions. Artificial intelligence systems are widely used technology that can learn from examples and are able to deal with non-linear problems. Compared with traditional approach, fuzzy logic approach is more efficient for the representation, manipulation and utilization. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between wind turbine power generation and wind velocity, and to illustrate how fuzzy expert system might play an important role in prediction of wind turbine power generation. The main purpose of the measurement over the small scaled prototype vertical axis wind turbine for the wind velocity is to predict the performance of full scaled H-type vertical axis wind turbine. Prediction of power generation at the different wind velocities has been tested at the Thermal Laboratory of Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Industri Selangor (UNISEL and results concerning the daily prediction have been obtained.

PREDICTION OF POWER GENERATION OF SMALL SCALE VERTICAL AXIS WIND TURBINE USING FUZZY LOGIC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Altab Md. Hossain

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Renewable energy from the wind turbine has been focused for the alternative source of power generation due to the following advances of the of the wind turbine. Firstly, the wind turbine is highly efficient and eco-friendly. Secondly, the turbine has the ability to response for the changeable power generation based on the wind velocity and structural framework. However, the competitive efficiency of the wind turbine is necessary to successfully alternate the conventional power sources. The most relevant factor which affects the overall efficiency of the wind turbine is the wind velocity and the relative turbine dimensions. Artificial intelligence systems are widely used technology that can learn from examples and are able to deal with non-linear problems. Compared with traditional approach, fuzzy logic approach is more efficient for the representation, manipulation and utilization. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between wind turbine power generation and wind velocity, and to illustrate how fuzzy expert system might play an important role in prediction of wind turbine power generation. The main purpose of the measurement over the small scaled prototype vertical axis wind turbine for the wind velocity is to predict the performance of full scaled H-type vertical axis wind turbine. Prediction of power generation at the different wind velocities has been tested at the Thermal Laboratory of Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Industri Selangor (UNISEL and results concerning the daily prediction have been obtained.

Wind Turbine Generator Efficiency Based on Powertrain Combination and Annual Power Generation Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongmyung Kim

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Wind turbine generators are eco-friendly generators that produce electric energy using wind energy. In this study, wind turbine generator efficiency is examined using a powertrain combination and annual power generation prediction, by employing an analysis model. Performance testing was conducted in order to analyze the efficiency of a hydraulic pump and a motor, which are key components, and so as to verify the analysis model. The annual wind speed occurrence frequency for the expected installation areas was used to predict the annual power generation of the wind turbine generators. It was found that the parallel combination of the induction motors exhibited a higher efficiency when the wind speed was low and the serial combination showed higher efficiency when wind speed was high. The results of predicting the annual power generation considering the regional characteristics showed that the power generation was the highest when the hydraulic motors were designed in parallel and the induction motors were designed in series.

Assessment of wind erosion threat for soils in cadastral area of Hajske

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muchova, Z.; Stredanska, A.

2008-01-01

This contribution illustrates the application of methods of erosion threat assessment in lan adaptation projects. Calculations of the soil erosion index of particular soil blocks are demonstrated for the cadastral area of Hajske. Two methods for assessment of erosion threat have been applied. First the assessment based on the ecological soil-quality units (ESQU) has been performed. Next, the Pasak method for a detailed analysis of the soil erosion threat was applied. Both of the mentioned approaches are recommended for the land adaption projects. Based on the results, the soil blocks have been ranked by their soil erosion threat. (authors)

Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

2018-01-01

This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

A study of single multiplicative neuron model with nonlinear filters for hourly wind speed prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Xuedong; Zhu, Zhiyu; Su, Xunliang; Fan, Shaosheng; Du, Zhaoping; Chang, Yanchao; Zeng, Qingjun

2015-01-01

Wind speed prediction is one important methods to guarantee the wind energy integrated into the whole power system smoothly. However, wind power has a non–schedulable nature due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty nature of wind speed. Therefore, wind speed prediction is an indispensable requirement for power system operators. Two new approaches for hourly wind speed prediction are developed in this study by integrating the single multiplicative neuron model and the iterated nonlinear filters for updating the wind speed sequence accurately. In the presented methods, a nonlinear state–space model is first formed based on the single multiplicative neuron model and then the iterated nonlinear filters are employed to perform dynamic state estimation on wind speed sequence with stochastic uncertainty. The suggested approaches are demonstrated using three cases wind speed data and are compared with autoregressive moving average, artificial neural network, kernel ridge regression based residual active learning and single multiplicative neuron model methods. Three types of prediction errors, mean absolute error improvement ratio and running time are employed for different models’ performance comparison. Comparison results from Tables 1–3 indicate that the presented strategies have much better performance for hourly wind speed prediction than other technologies. - Highlights: • Developed two novel hybrid modeling methods for hourly wind speed prediction. • Uncertainty and fluctuations of wind speed can be better explained by novel methods. • Proposed strategies have online adaptive learning ability. • Proposed approaches have shown better performance compared with existed approaches. • Comparison and analysis of two proposed novel models for three cases are provided

Soil Erosion Prediction Using Morgan-Morgan-Finney Model in a GIS Environment in Northern Ethiopia Catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Even though scientific information on spatial distribution of hydrophysical parameters is critical for understanding erosion processes and designing suitable technologies, little is known in Geographical Information System (GIS application in developing spatial hydrophysical data inputs and their application in Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF erosion model. This study was aimed to derive spatial distribution of hydrophysical parameters and apply them in the Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF model for estimating soil erosion in the Mai-Negus catchment, northern Ethiopia. Major data input for the model include climate, topography, land use, and soil data. This study demonstrated using MMF model that the rate of soil detachment varied from 170 t ha−1 y−1, whereas the soil transport capacity of overland flow (TC ranged from 5 t ha−1 y−1 to >42 t ha−1 y−1. The average soil loss estimated by TC using MMF model at catchment level was 26 t ha−1 y−1. In most parts of the catchment (>80%, the model predicted soil loss rates higher than the maximum tolerable rate (18 t ha−1 y−1 estimated for Ethiopia. Hence, introducing appropriate interventions based on the erosion severity predicted by MMF model in the catchment is crucial for sustainable natural resources management.

Design, construction and calibration of a portable boundary layer wind tunnel for field use

Science.gov (United States)

Wind tunnels have been used for several decades to study wind erosion processes. Portable wind tunnels offer the advantage of testing natural surfaces in the field, but they must be carefully designed to insure that a logarithmic boundary layer is formed and that wind erosion processes may develop ...

Soil Erosion: Advanced Crop and Soil Science. A Course of Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Larry E.

The course of study represents the last of six modules in advanced crop and soil science and introduces the agriculture student to the topic of soil erosion. Upon completion of the two day lesson, the student will be able to: (1) define conservation, (2) understand how erosion takes place, and (3) list ways of controlling wind and water erosion.…

Model predictive control of wind energy conversion systems

CERN Document Server

Yaramasu, Venkata Narasimha R

2017-01-01

The authors provide a comprehensive analysis on the model predictive control of power converters employed in a wide variety of variable-speed wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The contents of this book includes an overview of wind energy system configurations, power converters for variable-speed WECS, digital control techniques, MPC, modeling of power converters and wind generators for MPC design. Other topics include the mapping of continuous-time models to discrete-time models by various exact, approximate, and quasi-exact discretization methods, modeling and control of wind turbine grid-side two-level and multilevel voltage source converters. The authors also focus on the MPC of several power converter configurations for full variable-speed permanent magnet synchronous generator based WECS, squirrel-cage induction generator based WECS, and semi-variable-speed doubly fed induction generator based WECS.

Process-based coastal erosion modeling for Drew Point (North Slope, Alaska)

Science.gov (United States)

Ravens, Thomas M.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Zhang, Jinlin; Arp, Christopher D.; Schmutz, Joel A.

2012-01-01

A predictive, coastal erosion/shoreline change model has been developed for a small coastal segment near Drew Point, Beaufort Sea, Alaska. This coastal setting has experienced a dramatic increase in erosion since the early 2000’s. The bluffs at this site are 3-4 m tall and consist of ice-wedge bounded blocks of fine-grained sediments cemented by ice-rich permafrost and capped with a thin organic layer. The bluffs are typically fronted by a narrow (∼ 5  m wide) beach or none at all. During a storm surge, the sea contacts the base of the bluff and a niche is formed through thermal and mechanical erosion. The niche grows both vertically and laterally and eventually undermines the bluff, leading to block failure or collapse. The fallen block is then eroded both thermally and mechanically by waves and currents, which must occur before a new niche forming episode may begin. The erosion model explicitly accounts for and integrates a number of these processes including: (1) storm surge generation resulting from wind and atmospheric forcing, (2) erosional niche growth resulting from wave-induced turbulent heat transfer and sediment transport (using the Kobayashi niche erosion model), and (3) thermal and mechanical erosion of the fallen block. The model was calibrated with historic shoreline change data for one time period (1979-2002), and validated with a later time period (2002-2007).

Rill erosion rates in burned forests

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph W. Wagenbrenner; Peter R. Robichaud

2011-01-01

Introduction Wildfires often produce large increases in runoff and erosion rates (e.g., Moody and Martin, 2009), and land managers need to predict the frequency and magnitude of postfire erosion to determine the needs for hazard response and possible erosion mitigation to reduce the impacts of increased erosion on public safety and valued resources. The Water Erosion...

Vertical Wind Tunnel for Prediction of Rocket Flight Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hoani Bryson

2016-03-01

Full Text Available A customized vertical wind tunnel has been built by the University of Canterbury Rocketry group (UC Rocketry. This wind tunnel has been critical for the success of UC Rocketry as it allows the optimization of avionics and control systems before flight. This paper outlines the construction of the wind tunnel and includes an analysis of flow quality including swirl. A minimal modelling methodology for roll dynamics is developed that can extrapolate wind tunnel behavior at low wind speeds to much higher velocities encountered during flight. The models were shown to capture the roll flight dynamics in two rocket launches with mean roll angle errors varying from 0.26° to 1.5° across the flight data. The identified model parameters showed consistent and predictable variations over both wind tunnel tests and flight, including canard–fin interaction behavior. These results demonstrate that the vertical wind tunnel is an important tool for the modelling and control of sounding rockets.

Complex terrain wind resource estimation with the wind-atlas method: Prediction errors using linearized and nonlinear CFD micro-scale models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Troen, Ib; Bechmann, Andreas; Kelly, Mark C.

2014-01-01

Using the Wind Atlas methodology to predict the average wind speed at one location from measured climatological wind frequency distributions at another nearby location we analyse the relative prediction errors using a linearized flow model (IBZ) and a more physically correct fully non-linear 3D...... flow model (CFD) for a number of sites in very complex terrain (large terrain slopes). We first briefly describe the Wind Atlas methodology as implemented in WAsP and the specifics of the “classical” model setup and the new setup allowing the use of the CFD computation engine. We discuss some known...

The statistical prediction of offshore winds from land-based data for wind-energy applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Walmsley, J.L.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Burrows, W.R.

2001-01-01

Land-based meteorological measurements at two locations on the Danish coast are used to predict offshore wind speeds. Offshore wind-speed data are used only for developing the statistical prediction algorithms and for verification. As a first step, the two datasets were separated into nine...... percentile-based bins, with a minimum of 30 data records in each bin. Next, the records were randomly selected with approximately 70% of the data in each bin being used as a training set for development of the prediction algorithms, and the remaining 30% being reserved as a test set for evaluation purposes....... The binning procedure ensured that both training and test sets fairly represented the overall data distribution. To base the conclusions on firmer ground, five permutations of these training and test sets were created. Thus, all calculations were based on five cases, each one representing a different random...

Estimation of Separation Buffers for Wind-Prediction Error in an Airborne Separation Assistance System

Science.gov (United States)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Hoadley, Sherwood T.; Allen, B. Danette

2009-01-01

Wind prediction errors are known to affect the performance of automated air traffic management tools that rely on aircraft trajectory predictions. In particular, automated separation assurance tools, planned as part of the NextGen concept of operations, must be designed to account and compensate for the impact of wind prediction errors and other system uncertainties. In this paper we describe a high fidelity batch simulation study designed to estimate the separation distance required to compensate for the effects of wind-prediction errors throughout increasing traffic density on an airborne separation assistance system. These experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assurance systems. In this experiment, wind-prediction errors were varied between zero and forty knots while traffic density was increased several times current traffic levels. In order to accurately measure the full unmitigated impact of wind-prediction errors, no uncertainty buffers were added to the separation minima. The goal of the study was to measure the impact of wind-prediction errors in order to estimate the additional separation buffers necessary to preserve separation and to provide a baseline for future analyses. Buffer estimations from this study will be used and verified in upcoming safety evaluation experiments under similar simulation conditions. Results suggest that the strategic airborne separation functions exercised in this experiment can sustain wind prediction errors up to 40kts at current day air traffic density with no additional separation distance buffer and at eight times the current day with no more than a 60% increase in separation distance buffer.

Estimation Model of Soil Freeze-Thaw Erosion in Silingco Watershed Wetland of Northern Tibet

OpenAIRE

Kong, Bo; Yu, Huan

2013-01-01

The freeze-thaw (FT) erosion is a type of soil erosion like water erosion and wind erosion. Limited by many factors, the grading evaluation of soil FT erosion quantities is not well studied. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the evaluation indices of soil FT erosion, we for the first time utilized the sensitivity of microwave remote sensing technology to soil moisture for identification of FT state. We established an estimation model suitable to evaluate the soil FT erosion quantity in S...

Predictability and Variability of Wave and Wind

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chozas, Julia Fernandez; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, Hans Christian

This project covers two fields of study: a) Wave energy predictability and electricity markets. b) Variability of the power output of WECs in diversified systems : diversified renewable systems with wave and offshore wind production. See page 2-4 in the report for a executive summery....

VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 70 meter height

Data.gov (United States)

Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 70m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

VT Predicted Mean Wind Power - 50 meter height

Data.gov (United States)

Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind power predictions at 50m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 30 meter height

Data.gov (United States)

Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 30m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

Wind tunnel simulation of Martian sand storms

Science.gov (United States)

Greeley, R.

1980-01-01

The physics and geological relationships of particles driven by the wind under near Martian conditions were examined in the Martian Surface Wind Tunnel. Emphasis was placed on aeolian activity as a planetary process. Threshold speeds, rates of erosion, trajectories of windblown particles, and flow fields over various landforms were among the factors considered. Results of experiments on particles thresholds, rates of erosion, and the effects of electrostatics on particles in the aeolian environment are presented.

A new wind power prediction method based on chaotic theory and Bernstein Neural Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Cong; Zhang, Hongli; Fan, Wenhui; Fan, Xiaochao

2016-01-01

The accuracy of wind power prediction is important for assessing the security and economy of the system operation when wind power connects to the grids. However, multiple factors cause a long delay and large errors in wind power prediction. Hence, efficient wind power forecasting approaches are still required for practical applications. In this paper, a new wind power forecasting method based on Chaos Theory and Bernstein Neural Network (BNN) is proposed. Firstly, the largest Lyapunov exponent as a judgment for wind power system's chaotic behavior is made. Secondly, Phase Space Reconstruction (PSR) is used to reconstruct the wind power series' phase space. Thirdly, the prediction model is constructed using the Bernstein polynomial and neural network. Finally, the weights and thresholds of the model are optimized by Primal Dual State Transition Algorithm (PDSTA). The practical hourly data of wind power generation in Xinjiang is used to test this forecaster. The proposed forecaster is compared with several current prominent research findings. Analytical results indicate that the forecasting error of PDSTA + BNN is 3.893% for 24 look-ahead hours, and has lower errors obtained compared with the other forecast methods discussed in this paper. The results of all cases studying confirm the validity of the new forecast method. - Highlights: • Lyapunov exponent is used to verify chaotic behavior of wind power series. • Phase Space Reconstruction is used to reconstruct chaotic wind power series. • A new Bernstein Neural Network to predict wind power series is proposed. • Primal dual state transition algorithm is chosen as the training strategy of BNN.

Development of a wind farm noise propagation prediction model - project progress to date

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, P.; Bullmore, A.; Bass, J.; Sloth, E.

1998-01-01

This paper describes a twelve month measurement campaign which is part of a European project (CEC Project JOR3-CT95-0051) with the aim to substantially reduce the uncertainties involved in predicting environmentally radiated noise levels from wind farms (1). This will be achieved by comparing noise levels measure at varying distances from single and multiple sources over differing complexities of terrain with those predicted using a number of currently adopted sound propagation models. Specific objectives within the project are to: establish the important parameters controlling the propagation of wind farm noise to the far field; develop a planning tool for predicting wind farm noise emission levels under practically encountered conditions; place confidence limits on the upper and lower bounds of the noise levels predicted, thus enabling developers to quantify the risk whether noise emission from wind farms will cause nuisance to nearby residents. (Author)

Advanced experimental and numerical techniques for cavitation erosion prediction

CERN Document Server

Chahine, Georges; Franc, Jean-Pierre; Karimi, Ayat

2014-01-01

This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the cavitation erosion phenomenon and state-of-the-art research in the field. It is divided into two parts. Part 1 consists of seven chapters, offering a wide range of computational and experimental approaches to cavitation erosion. It includes a general introduction to cavitation and cavitation erosion, a detailed description of facilities and measurement techniques commonly used in cavitation erosion studies, an extensive presentation of various stages of cavitation damage (including incubation and mass loss), and insights into the contribution of computational methods to the analysis of both fluid and material behavior. The proposed approach is based on a detailed description of impact loads generated by collapsing cavitation bubbles and a physical analysis of the material response to these loads. Part 2 is devoted to a selection of nine papers presented at the International Workshop on Advanced Experimental and Numerical Techniques for Cavitation Erosion (Gr...

A methodology for the prediction of offshore wind energy resources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watson, S J; Watson, G M [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Holt, R.J. [Univ. of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom)] Barthelmie, R.J. [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Zuylen, E.J. van [Ecofys Energy and Environment, Utrecht (Netherlands)] Cleijne, J.W. [Kema Sustainable, Arnhem (Netherlands)

1999-03-01

There are increasing constraints on the development of wind power on land. Recently, there has been a move to develop wind power offshore, though the amount of measured wind speed data at potential offshore wind farm sites is sparse. We present a novel methodology for the prediction of offshore wind power resources which is being applied to European Union waters. The first stage is to calculate the geostrophic wind from long-term pressure fields over the sea area of interest. Secondly, the geostrophic wind is transformed to the sea level using WA{sup s}P, taking account of near shore topography. Finally, these values are corrected for land/sea climatology (stability) effects using an analytical Coastal discontinuity Model (CDM). These values are further refined using high resolution offshore data at selected sites. The final values are validated against existing offshore datasets. Preliminary results are presented of the geostrophic wind speed validation in European Union waters. (au)

Microbiology of Wind-eroded Sediments: Current Knowledge and Future Research Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Wind erosion is a threat to the sustainability and productivity of soils that takes place at local, regional, and global scales. Current estimates of cost of wind erosion have not included the costs associated with the loss of soil biodiversity and reduced ecosystem functions. Microorganisms carrie...

Modeling soil erosion in a watershed

OpenAIRE

Lanuza, R.

1999-01-01

Most erosion models have been developed based on a plot scale and have limited application to a watershed due to the differences in aerial scale. In order to address this limitation, a GIS-assisted methodology for modeling soil erosion was developed using PCRaster to predict the rate of soil erosion at watershed level; identify the location of erosion prone areas; and analyze the impact of landuse changes on soil erosion. The general methodology of desktop modeling or soil erosion at watershe...

Evaluation of the rusle and disturbed wepp erosion models for predicting soil loss in the first year after wildfire in NW Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández, Cristina; Vega, José A

2018-05-04

Severe fire greatly increases soil erosion rates and overland-flow in forest land. Soil erosion prediction models are essential for estimating fire impacts and planning post-fire emergency responses. We evaluated the performance of a) the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), modified by inclusion of an alternative equation for the soil erodibility factor, and b) the Disturbed WEPP model, by comparing the soil loss predicted by the models and the soil loss measured in the first year after wildfire in 44 experimental field plots in NW Spain. The Disturbed WEPP has not previously been validated with field data for use in NW Spain; validation studies are also very scarce in other areas. We found that both models underestimated the erosion rates. The accuracy of the RUSLE model was low, even after inclusion of a modified soil erodibility factor accounting for high contents of soil organic matter. We conclude that neither model is suitable for predicting soil erosion in the first year after fire in NW Spain and suggest that soil burn severity should be given greater weighting in post-fire soil erosion modelling. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Cornejo-Bueno

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

A Free Wake Numerical Simulation for Darrieus Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Performance Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Belu, Radian

2010-11-01

In the last four decades, several aerodynamic prediction models have been formulated for the Darrieus wind turbine performances and characteristics. We can identified two families: stream-tube and vortex. The paper presents a simplified numerical techniques for simulating vertical axis wind turbine flow, based on the lifting line theory and a free vortex wake model, including dynamic stall effects for predicting the performances of a 3-D vertical axis wind turbine. A vortex model is used in which the wake is composed of trailing stream-wise and shedding span-wise vortices, whose strengths are equal to the change in the bound vortex strength as required by the Helmholz and Kelvin theorems. Performance parameters are computed by application of the Biot-Savart law along with the Kutta-Jukowski theorem and a semi-empirical stall model. We tested the developed model with an adaptation of the earlier multiple stream-tube performance prediction model for the Darrieus turbines. Predictions by using our method are shown to compare favorably with existing experimental data and the outputs of other numerical models. The method can predict accurately the local and global performances of a vertical axis wind turbine, and can be used in the design and optimization of wind turbines for built environment applications.

Wind tunnel tests of biodegradable fugitive dust suppressants being considered to reduce soil erosion by wind at radioactive waste construction sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ligotke, M.W.; Dennis, G.W.; Bushaw, L.L.

1993-10-01

Wind tunnel tests were performed of three fugitive dust control agents derived from potato and sugar beet products. These materials are being considered for use as dust suppressants to reduce the potential for transport of radioactive materials by wind from radioactive waste construction and remediation sites. Soil and dust control agent type, solution concentrations, application quantities, aging (or drying) conditions, surface disturbance, and wind and saltating sand eolian erosive stresses were selected and controlled to simulate application and exposure of excavated soil surfaces in the field. A description of the tests, results, conclusions, and recommendations are presented in this report. The results of this study indicate that all three dust control agents can protect exposed soil surfaces from extreme eolian stresses. It is also clear that the interaction and performance of each agent with various soil types may differ dramatically. Thus, soils similar to that received from ML should be best protected by high concentration (∼2.5%) solutions of potato starch at low water application levels (∼1 to 2 L/m 2 ). Because the effectiveness of PS on this soil type is degraded after a moderate amount of simulated rainfall, other options or additives should be considered if surfaces are to be protected for long intervals or during periods of intermittent rainfall and hot, windy conditions. On the other hand, XDCA should be considered when excavating sandy soils. It should be noted, however, that because the Hanford soil test results are based on a small number of tests, it would be prudent to perform additional tests prior to selecting a fugitive dust control agent for use at the Hanford Site. While fermented potato waste was not the best fixative used on either soil, it did perform reasonably well on both soil types (better than XDCA on Idaho soil and better than PS on Hanford soil)

Wind erosion risk in the southwest of Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, and its relationship to the productivity index

Science.gov (United States)

Silenzi, Juan C.; Echeverría, Nora E.; Vallejos, Adrián G.; Bouza, Mariana E.; De Lucia, Martín P.

2012-01-01

Wind erosion risk (WER) for soils of each municipality in the southwest (SW) of Buenos Aires Province (10,491,172 ha) was determined using the wind erosion equation (WEQ) model. WER results from multiplying the soil erodibility index (" I") of the soil by the climatic factor ( C). WER (Mg ha -1 year -1) of each municipality was: Bahía Blanca: 22.4, Coronel Dorrego: 18.6, Coronel Pringles: 4.5, Coronel Rosales: 48.2, Coronel Suárez: 4.5, Guaminí: 3.0, Patagones: 104.6, Puan: 12.2, Saavedra: 3.0, Tornquist: 6.8, and Villarino: 31.7. The maximum weighted average of " I" (Mg ha -1 year -1) corresponded to Coronel Rosales (87.6), Patagones (87.2), Villarino (85.7), Puan (67.9); Guaminí (59.6), Coronel Dorrego (53.1), and Bahía Blanca (39.3); the remaining municipalities ranged between 34.9 and 32.1 Mg ha -1 year -1. The highest C (%) corresponded to Patagones (120), Bahía Blanca (57), Coronel Rosales (55), Villarino (37), Coronel Dorrego (35), Tornquist (21), and Puan (18); for the remaining municipalities it was 14%. The productivity index (PI) is known to establish a numerical value of the productive capacity of lands. The relationship between WER and PI, weighted averages, in all the studied municipalities was fitted by means of a linear model, WER (Mg ha -1 year -1) = 95.23 - 2.09 * PI (%) ( R2 = 66%), and a second-order polynomial model, WER (Mg ha -1 year -1) = 139.41 - 5.86 * PI (%) + 0.07 * PI 2 (%) ( R2 = 74%). No statistically significant relationship was found between WER and PI for each municipality.

Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea

OpenAIRE

Deockho Kim; Jin Hur

2017-01-01

Due to the intermittency of wind power generation, it is very hard to manage its system operation and planning. In order to incorporate higher wind power penetrations into power systems that maintain secure and economic power system operation, an accurate and efficient estimation of wind power outputs is needed. In this paper, we propose the stochastic prediction of wind generating resources using an enhanced ensemble model for Jeju Island’s wind farms in South Korea. When selecting the poten...

Aerodynamic performance prediction of Darrieus-type wind turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion NILĂ

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The prediction of Darrieus wind turbine aerodynamic performances provides the necessarydesign and operational data base related to the wind potential. In this sense it provides the type ofturbine suitable to the area where it is to be installed. Two calculation methods are analyzed for arotor with straight blades. The first one is a global method that allows an assessment of the turbinenominal power by a brief calculation. This method leads to an overestimation of performances. Thesecond is the calculation method of the gust factor and momentum which deals with the pale as beingcomposed of different elements that don’t influence each other. This method, developed based on thetheory of the turbine blades, leads to values close to the statistical data obtained experimentally. Thevalues obtained by the calculation method of gust factor - momentum led to the concept of a Darrieusturbine, which will be tested for different wind values in the INCAS subsonic wind tunnel.

Understanding and Predicting Gun Barrel Erosion

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Johnston, Ian A

2005-01-01

The Australian Defence Force will soon have to contend with gun barrel erosion issues arising from the use of new low-vulnerability gun propellants, the acquisition of new ammunition and gun systems...

Correaltion of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft. Phase 2: Wind tunnel test, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 1: Drag predictions, wind tunnel data analysis and correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Macwilkinson, D. G.; Blackerby, W. T.; Paterson, J. H.

1974-01-01

The degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft is determined between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. An analysis of wind tunnel tests on a 0.0275 scale model at Reynolds number up to 3.05 x 1 million/MAC is reported. Model support interference corrections are evaluated through a series of tests, and fully corrected model data are analyzed to provide details on model component interference factors. It is shown that predicted minimum profile drag for the complete configuration agrees within 0.75% of flight test data, using a wind tunnel extrapolation method based on flat plate skin friction and component shape factors. An alternative method of extrapolation, based on computed profile drag from a subsonic viscous theory, results in a prediction four percent lower than flight test data.

Erosion-Oxidation Response of Boiler Grade Steels: A Mathematical Investigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. K. Das

2008-01-01

Full Text Available A ductile erosion model embodying the mechanisms of erosion involving cutting wear and repeated plastic deformation has been developed to predict erosion rates of boiler grade steels. The issue of erosion-oxidation interaction has also been addressed to further predict the mass loss resulted from this composite mechanism. A deterministic formalism for the kinetics of oxide-scale growth and a probabilistic approach to characterize the material loss are employed to describe simultaneous actions of high-temperature oxidation and mechanical erosion. The model predictions are in good agreement with the published data.

Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

Science.gov (United States)

Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

2016-01-01

Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

Distributed Model Predictive Control for Active Power Control of Wind Farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

2014-01-01

This paper presents the active power control of a wind farm using the Distributed Model Predictive Controller (D- MPC) via dual decomposition. Different from the conventional centralized wind farm control, multiple objectives such as power reference tracking performance and wind turbine load can...... be considered to achieve a trade-off between them. Additionally, D- MPC is based on communication among the subsystems. Through the interaction among the neighboring subsystems, the global optimization could be achieved, which significantly reduces the computation burden. It is suitable for the modern large......-scale wind farm control....

A novel implementation of kNN classifier based on multi-tupled meteorological input data for wind power prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yesilbudak, Mehmet; Sagiroglu, Seref; Colak, Ilhami

2017-01-01

Highlights: • An accurate wind power prediction model is proposed for very short-term horizon. • The k-nearest neighbor classifier is implemented based on the multi-tupled inputs. • The variation of wind power prediction errors is evaluated in various aspects. • Our approach shows the superior prediction performance over the persistence method. - Abstract: With the growing share of wind power production in the electric power grids, many critical challenges to the grid operators have been emerged in terms of the power balance, power quality, voltage support, frequency stability, load scheduling, unit commitment and spinning reserve calculations. To overcome such problems, numerous studies have been conducted to predict the wind power production, but a small number of them have attempted to improve the prediction accuracy by employing the multidimensional meteorological input data. The novelties of this study lie in the proposal of an efficient and easy to implement very short-term wind power prediction model based on the k-nearest neighbor classifier (kNN), in the usage of wind speed, wind direction, barometric pressure and air temperature parameters as the multi-tupled meteorological inputs and in the comparison of wind power prediction results with respect to the persistence reference model. As a result of the achieved patterns, we characterize the variation of wind power prediction errors according to the input tuples, distance measures and neighbor numbers, and uncover the most influential and the most ineffective meteorological parameters on the optimization of wind power prediction results.

On Practical tuning of Model Uncertainty in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

2015-01-01

Model predictive control (MPC) has in previous works been applied on wind turbines with promising results. These results apply linear MPC, i.e., linear models linearized at different operational points depending on the wind speed. The linearized models are derived from a nonlinear first principles...... model of a wind turbine. In this paper, we investigate the impact of this approach on the performance of a wind turbine. In particular, we focus on the most non-linear operational ranges of a wind turbine. The MPC controller is designed for, tested, and evaluated at an industrial high fidelity wind...

Reduction of wind power induced reserve requirements by advanced shortest-term forecasts and prediction intervals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dobschinski, Jan; Wessel, Arne; Lange, Bernhard; Bremen, Lueder von [Fraunhofer Institut fuer Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (IWES), Kassel (Germany)

2009-07-01

In electricity systems with large penetration of wind power, the limited predictability of the wind power generation leads to an increase in reserve and balancing requirements. At first the present study concentrates on the capability of dynamic day-ahead prediction intervals to reduce the wind power induced reserve and balancing requirements. Alternatively the reduction of large forecast errors of the German wind power generation by using advanced shortest-term predictions has been evaluated in a second approach. With focus on the allocation of minute reserve power the aim is to estimate the maximal remaining uncertainty after trading activities on the intraday market. Finally both approaches were used in a case study concerning the reserve requirements induced by the total German wind power expansion in 2007. (orig.)

Predicting wind shear effects: A study of Minnesota wind data collected at heights up to 70 meters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Artig, R. [Minnesota Dept. of Public Service, St. Paul, MN (United States)

1997-12-31

The Minnesota Department of Public Service (DPS) collects wind data at carefully selected sites around the state and analyzes the data to determine Minnesota`s wind power potential. DPS recently installed advanced new monitoring equipment at these sites and began to collect wind data at 30, 50, and 70 meters above ground level, with two anemometers at each level. Previously, the Department had not collected data at heights above ground level higher than 30 meters. DPS also, with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), installed four sophisticated monitoring sites as part of a Tall Tower Wind Shear Study that is assessing the effects of wind shear on wind power potential. At these sites, wind data are being collected at the 10, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 meter heights. This paper presents the preliminary results of the analysis of wind data from all sites. These preliminary results indicate that the traditional 1/7 power law does not effectively predict wind shear in Minnesota, and the result is an underestimation of Minnesota`s wind power potential at higher heights. Using a power factor of 1/5 or 1/4 may be more accurate and provide sound justification for installing wind turbines on taller towers in Minnesota.

A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

2011-01-01

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2018-01-01

The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...... monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution...

Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2018-01-01

monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoon-Kyung Park

2009-12-01

Full Text Available We reevaluate the Burton equation (Burton et al. 1975 of predicting Dst index using high quality hourly solar wind data supplied by the ACE satellite for the period from 1998 to 2006. Sixty magnetic storms with monotonously decreasing main phase are selected. In order to determine the injection term (Q and the decay time (tau of the equation, we examine the relationships between Dst* and VB_s, Delta Dst* and VB_s, and Delta Dst* and Dst* during the magnetic storms. For this analysis, we take into account one hour of the propagation time from the ACE satellite to the magnetopause, and a half hour of the response time of the magnetosphere/ring current to the solar wind forcing. The injection term is found to be Q({nT}/h=-3.56VB_s for VB_s>0.5mV/m and Q({nT}/h=0 for VB_s leq0.5mV/m. The tau (hour is estimated as 0.060 Dst* + 16.65 for Dst*>-175nT and 6.15 hours for Dst* leq -175nT. Based on these empirical relationships, we predict the 60 magnetic storms and find that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted Dst* is 0.88. To evaluate the performance of our prediction scheme, the 60 magnetic storms are predicted again using the models by Burton et al. (1975 and O'Brien & McPherron (2000a. The correlation coefficients thus obtained are 0.85, the same value for both of the two models. In this respect, our model is slightly improved over the other two models as far as the correlation coefficients is concerned. Particularly our model does a better job than the other two models in predicting intense magnetic storms (Dst* lesssim -200nT.

Coordinated Voltage Control of a Wind Farm based on Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

2016-01-01

This paper presents an autonomous wind farm voltage controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The reactive power compensation and voltage regulation devices of the wind farm include Static Var Compensators (SVCs), Static Var Generators (SVGs), Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) and On...... are calculated based on an analytical method to improve the computation efficiency and overcome the convergence problem. Two control modes are designed for both voltage violated and normal operation conditions. A wind farm with 20 wind turbines was used to conduct case studies to verify the proposed coordinated...

Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koukoura, Christina

To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...

Comparison of measured and simulated friction velocity and threshold friction velocity using SWEEP

Science.gov (United States)

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) was developed by the USDA Agricultural Research Service as a tool to predict wind erosion and assess the influence of control practices on windblown soil loss. Occasional failure of the WEPS erosion submodel (SWEEP) to simulate erosion in the Columbia Platea...

A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

2011-01-15

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches. (author)

Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Kuilin; Yu, Jie

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A novel hybrid modeling method is proposed for short-term wind speed forecasting. • Support vector regression model is constructed to formulate nonlinear state-space framework. • Unscented Kalman filter is adopted to recursively update states under random uncertainty. • The new SVR–UKF approach is compared to several conventional methods for short-term wind speed prediction. • The proposed method demonstrates higher prediction accuracy and reliability. - Abstract: Accurate wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. Particularly, reliable short-term wind speed prediction can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, this task remains challenging due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed. In this study, unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is integrated with support vector regression (SVR) based state-space model in order to precisely update the short-term estimation of wind speed sequence. In the proposed SVR–UKF approach, support vector regression is first employed to formulate a nonlinear state-space model and then unscented Kalman filter is adopted to perform dynamic state estimation recursively on wind sequence with stochastic uncertainty. The novel SVR–UKF method is compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs), SVR, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive integrated with Kalman filter (AR-Kalman) approaches for predicting short-term wind speed sequences collected from three sites in Massachusetts, USA. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method has much better performance in both one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead wind speed predictions than the other approaches across all the locations

Challenges in soil erosion research and prediction model development

Science.gov (United States)

Quantification of soil erosion has been traditionally considered as a surface hydrologic process with equations for soil detachment and sediment transport derived from the mechanics and hydraulics of the rainfall and surface flow. Under the current erosion modeling framework, the soil has a constant...

Sand transport, erosion and granular electrification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Merrison, J.P.

2012-01-01

is expanding our current understanding and outline the areas of advancement needed in the future. Presentation is made of current models for wind driven detachment/entrainment and the transport rates of sand and dust, including the effects of contact induced grain electrification. This ubiquitous phenomenon...... can affect grain transport through the generation of intense electric fields and processes of electrostatic assembly. Importantly the transport of sand is characterized by saltation, which is known to be an active process for erosion and therefore a source for dust and sand formation. Using novel...... erosion simulation techniques the link between grain transport rates and erosion rates has been quantified. Furthermore this can be linked to production rates for dust and has been associated with chemical and mineral alteration through a process of mechanical activation of fractured surfaces. This work...

Upper Gastrointestinal Symptoms Predictive of Candida Esophagitis and Erosive Esophagitis in HIV and Non-HIV Patients

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Yuta; Nagata, Naoyoshi; Shimbo, Takuro; Nishijima, Takeshi; Watanabe, Koji; Aoki, Tomonori; Sekine, Katsunori; Okubo, Hidetaka; Watanabe, Kazuhiro; Sakurai, Toshiyuki; Yokoi, Chizu; Mimori, Akio; Oka, Shinichi; Uemura, Naomi; Akiyama, Junichi

2015-01-01

Abstract Upper gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms are common in both HIV and non-HIV-infected patients, but the difference of GI symptom severity between 2 groups remains unknown. Candida esophagitis and erosive esophagitis, 2 major types of esophagitis, are seen in both HIV and non-HIV-infected patients, but differences in GI symptoms that are predictive of esophagitis between 2 groups remain unknown. We aimed to determine whether GI symptoms differ between HIV-infected and non-HIV-infected patients, and identify specific symptoms of candida esophagitis and erosive esophagitis between 2 groups. We prospectively enrolled 6011 patients (HIV, 430; non-HIV, 5581) who underwent endoscopy and completed questionnaires. Nine upper GI symptoms (epigastric pain, heartburn, acid regurgitation, hunger cramps, nausea, early satiety, belching, dysphagia, and odynophagia) were evaluated using a 7-point Likert scale. Associations between esophagitis and symptoms were analyzed by the multivariate logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex, and proton pump inhibitors. Endoscopy revealed GI-organic diseases in 33.4% (2010/6.011) of patients. The prevalence of candida esophagitis and erosive esophagitis was 11.2% and 12.1% in HIV-infected patients, respectively, whereas it was 2.9% and 10.7 % in non-HIV-infected patients, respectively. After excluding GI-organic diseases, HIV-infected patients had significantly (P symptom scores for heartburn, hunger cramps, nausea, early satiety, belching, dysphagia, and odynophagia than non-HIV-infected patients. In HIV-infected patients, any symptom was not significantly associated with CD4 cell count. In multivariate analysis, none of the 9 GI symptoms were associated with candida esophagitis in HIV-infected patients, whereas dysphagia and odynophagia were independently (P HIV-infected patients. However, heartburn and acid regurgitation were independently (P symptom scores were reliable in both HIV (α, 0.86) and non-HIV-infected patients

A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

Mapping Soil Erosion Factors and Potential Erosion Risk for the National Park "Central Balkan"

Science.gov (United States)

Ilieva, Diliana; Malinov, Ilia

2014-05-01

Soil erosion is widely recognised environmental problem. The report aims at presenting the main results from assessment and mapping of the factors of sheet water erosion and the potential erosion risk on the territory of National Park "Central Balkan". For this purpose, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was used for predicting soil loss from erosion. The influence of topography (LS-factor) and soil erodibility (K-factor) was assessed using small-scale topographic and soil maps. Rainfall erosivity (R-factor) was calculated from data of rainfalls with amounts exceeding 9.5 mm from 14 hydro-meteorological stations. The values of the erosion factors (R, K and LS) were presented for the areas of forest, sub-alpine and alpine zones. Using the methods of GIS, maps were plotted presenting the area distribution among the classes of the soil erosion factors and the potential risk in the respective zones. The results can be used for making accurate decisions for soil conservation and sustainable land management in the park.

Wind gust estimation by combining numerical weather prediction model and statistical post-processing

Science.gov (United States)

Patlakas, Platon; Drakaki, Eleni; Galanis, George; Spyrou, Christos; Kallos, George

2017-04-01

The continuous rise of off-shore and near-shore activities as well as the development of structures, such as wind farms and various offshore platforms, requires the employment of state-of-the-art risk assessment techniques. Such analysis is used to set the safety standards and can be characterized as a climatologically oriented approach. Nevertheless, a reliable operational support is also needed in order to minimize cost drawbacks and human danger during the construction and the functioning stage as well as during maintenance activities. One of the most important parameters for this kind of analysis is the wind speed intensity and variability. A critical measure associated with this variability is the presence and magnitude of wind gusts as estimated in the reference level of 10m. The latter can be attributed to different processes that vary among boundary-layer turbulence, convection activities, mountain waves and wake phenomena. The purpose of this work is the development of a wind gust forecasting methodology combining a Numerical Weather Prediction model and a dynamical statistical tool based on Kalman filtering. To this end, the parameterization of Wind Gust Estimate method was implemented to function within the framework of the atmospheric model SKIRON/Dust. The new modeling tool combines the atmospheric model with a statistical local adaptation methodology based on Kalman filters. This has been tested over the offshore west coastline of the United States. The main purpose is to provide a useful tool for wind analysis and prediction and applications related to offshore wind energy (power prediction, operation and maintenance). The results have been evaluated by using observational data from the NOAA's buoy network. As it was found, the predicted output shows a good behavior that is further improved after the local adjustment post-process.

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques to reduce post-fire runoff and erosion in Mediterranean pine stands - does cover matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Vieira, Diana; Nunes, João; Prats, Sergio; Serpa, Dalila; Keizer, Jan

2016-04-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many forest ecosystems of the Mediterranean. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters make it prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. Furthermore, climate change and continuation of current land management practices and planning are generally expected to further increase this threat. The wide recognition of the effects of wildfires to enhance runoff and erosion has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire forestry operations to mitigate these responses. Such a tool should allow to identify areas with elevated risks of soil erosion and to evaluate which measures should be applied and when to minimize these risks. A key element in evaluating these measures is also their costs, in order to optimize the use of the limited resources that are typically available for post-fire land management. In this study, two "treatments" are compared with control conditions (i.e. doing nothing) after a wildfire with a moderate soil burn severity: (i) 4 erosion plots were treated with hydro-mulch, (ii) 4 erosion plots were untreated but had a high pine needle cover quickly after the fire, due to needle cast from scorched pine crowns (often referred to as "natural mulching") (iii) 4 plots were untreated and had a very reduced protective litter cover . The main objective of this study was to asses if the revised MMF model could effectively predict the impacts of hydro-mulching and natural mulching with pine needle on runoff generation and the associated soil losses. If MMF could predict well the impact of natural mulching, it could be very useful in limiting the areas that should be considered for specific soil mitigation measures, especially in the case of wildfires that affect large areas with moderate severity. The

Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao

2017-07-01

The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

Control of eolic erosion in a coal Port, by means of re-vegetation of arid areas and operational procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velasquez Pilar

1992-01-01

To the phenomenon of haulage of floor particles for the wind is known as erosion by deflation, and one in the ways of eolic erosion existent, although many authors constitutes they refer to her as eolic erosion. The eolic erosion includes the movement processes, transport, separation and deposition, it can present in any area that presents the following conditions: 1) Soil dry and loose until certain finely divided degree, 2) flat surface with little or any vegetable cover, 3) quite extensive land 4) sufficiently strong wind to transport the earth particles. It is considered that to begin the movement of particles 0.1 mm of diameter winds they are needed to 30 cm of height of 4,4m/s (FAO, 1961). All these conditions are presented in Port Bolivar in more or smaller measure. In port Bolivar two main groups of areas have been identified in process of material movement

Erosion and erosion-corrosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isomoto, Yoshinori

2008-01-01

It is very difficult to interpret the technical term of erosion-corrosion' which is sometimes encountered in piping systems of power plants, because of complicated mechanisms and several confusing definitions of erosion-corrosion phenomena. 'FAC (flow accelerated corrosion)' is recently introduced as wall thinning of materials in power plant systems, as a representative of 'erosion-corrosion'. FAC is, however, not necessarily well understood and compared with erosion-corrosion. This paper describes firstly the origin, definition and fundamental understandings of erosion and erosion-corrosion, in order to reconsider and reconfirm the phenomena of erosion, erosion-corrosion and FAC. Next, typical mapping of erosion, corrosion, erosion-corrosion and FAC are introduced in flow velocity and environmental corrosiveness axes. The concept of damage rate in erosion-corrosion is finally discussed, connecting dissolution rate, mass transfer of metal ions in a metal oxide film and film growth. (author)

Improving Wind Farm Dispatchability Using Model Predictive Control for Optimal Operation of Grid-Scale Energy Storage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Douglas Halamay

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper demonstrates the use of model-based predictive control for energy storage systems to improve the dispatchability of wind power plants. Large-scale wind penetration increases the variability of power flow on the grid, thus increasing reserve requirements. Large energy storage systems collocated with wind farms can improve dispatchability of the wind plant by storing energy during generation over-the-schedule and sourcing energy during generation under-the-schedule, essentially providing on-site reserves. Model predictive control (MPC provides a natural framework for this application. By utilizing an accurate energy storage system model, control actions can be planned in the context of system power and state-of-charge limitations. MPC also enables the inclusion of predicted wind farm performance over a near-term horizon that allows control actions to be planned in anticipation of fast changes, such as wind ramps. This paper demonstrates that model-based predictive control can improve system performance compared with a standard non-predictive, non-model-based control approach. It is also demonstrated that secondary objectives, such as reducing the rate of change of the wind plant output (i.e., ramps, can be considered and successfully implemented within the MPC framework. Specifically, it is shown that scheduling error can be reduced by 81%, reserve requirements can be improved by up to 37%, and the number of ramp events can be reduced by 74%.

A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Jie; Chen, Kuilin; Mori, Junichi; Rashid, Mudassir M.

2013-01-01

Optimizing wind power generation and controlling the operation of wind turbines to efficiently harness the renewable wind energy is a challenging task due to the intermittency and unpredictable nature of wind speed, which has significant influence on wind power production. A new approach for long-term wind speed forecasting is developed in this study by integrating GMCM (Gaussian mixture copula model) and localized GPR (Gaussian process regression). The time series of wind speed is first classified into multiple non-Gaussian components through the Gaussian mixture copula model and then Bayesian inference strategy is employed to incorporate the various non-Gaussian components using the posterior probabilities. Further, the localized Gaussian process regression models corresponding to different non-Gaussian components are built to characterize the stochastic uncertainty and non-stationary seasonality of the wind speed data. The various localized GPR models are integrated through the posterior probabilities as the weightings so that a global predictive model is developed for the prediction of wind speed. The proposed GMCM–GPR approach is demonstrated using wind speed data from various wind farm locations and compared against the GMCM-based ARIMA (auto-regressive integrated moving average) and SVR (support vector regression) methods. In contrast to GMCM–ARIMA and GMCM–SVR methods, the proposed GMCM–GPR model is able to well characterize the multi-seasonality and uncertainty of wind speed series for accurate long-term prediction. - Highlights: • A novel predictive modeling method is proposed for long-term wind speed forecasting. • Gaussian mixture copula model is estimated to characterize the multi-seasonality. • Localized Gaussian process regression models can deal with the random uncertainty. • Multiple GPR models are integrated through Bayesian inference strategy. • The proposed approach shows higher prediction accuracy and reliability

Molybdenum erosion measurements in Alcator C-Mod

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wampler, W.R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); LaBombard, B.; Lipshultz, B.; Pappas, D.; Pitcher, C.S. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States); McCracken, G.M. [JET Joint Undertaking, Abingdon (United Kingdom)

1998-05-01

Erosion of molybdenum was measured on a set of 21 tiles after a run campaign of 1,090 shots in the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. The net erosion of molybdenum, was determined from changes in the depth of a thin chromium marker layer measured by Rutherford backscattering. Net Mo erosion was found to be approximately 150 nm near the outer divertor strike point, and much less everywhere else. Gross erosion rates by sputtering were estimated using ion energies and fluxes obtained from Langmuir probe measurements of edge-plasma conditions. Predicted net erosion using calculated gross erosion with prompt redeposition and measured net erosion agree within a factor of 3. Sputtering by boron and molybdenum impurities dominates erosion.

The effects of tropical wind data on the prediction of ultralong waves

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, W. E.

1981-01-01

The influence of tropical wind data on the prediction of planetary waves were studied. Two assimilation experiments were performed, one with and one without FGGE tropical winds. The planetary wave error was then analyzed in 72 h forecasts from the initial conditions provided by the two assimilations.

Soil erosion assessment - Mind the gap

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jongho; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Fatichi, Simone

2016-12-01

Accurate assessment of erosion rates remains an elusive problem because soil loss is strongly nonunique with respect to the main drivers. In addressing the mechanistic causes of erosion responses, we discriminate between macroscale effects of external factors - long studied and referred to as "geomorphic external variability", and microscale effects, introduced as "geomorphic internal variability." The latter source of erosion variations represents the knowledge gap, an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response, significantly impacting the low predictability skill of deterministic models at field-catchment scales. This is corroborated with experiments using a comprehensive physical model that dynamically updates the soil mass and particle composition. As complete knowledge of microscale conditions for arbitrary location and time is infeasible, we propose that new predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components in deterministic assessments of external and internal types of geomorphic variability.

Application of a ray theory model to the prediction of noise emissions from isolated wind turbines and wind parks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prospathopoulos, John M.; Voutsinas, Spyros G.

2006-01-01

Various propagation models have been developed to estimate the level of noise near residential areas. Predictions and measurements have proven that proper modelling of the propagation medium is of particular importance. In the present work, calculations are performed using a ray theory methodology. The ray trajectory and transport equations are derived from the linear acoustics equations for a moving medium in three dimensions. Ground and atmospheric absorption, wave refraction and diffraction and atmospheric turbulence are taken into account by introducing appropriate coefficients in the equations. In the case of a wind turbine (W/T) it is assumed that noise is produced by a point source located at the rotor centre. Given the sound power spectrum, the noise spectrum at the receiver is obtained by solving the axisymmetric propagation problem. The procedure consists of (a) finding the eigenrays, (b) calculating the energy losses along the eigenrays and (c) synthesizing the sound pressure level (SPL) by superposing the contributions of the eigenrays. In the case of a wind park the total SPL is calculated by superposing the contributions of all W/Ts. Application is made to five cases of isolated W/Ts in terrains of varying complexity. In flat or even smooth terrain the predictions agree well with the measurements. In complex terrain the predictions can be considered satisfactory, taking into account the assumption of constant wind velocity profile. Application to a wind park shows clearly the influence of the terrain on the wind velocity and consequently on the SPL. (Author)

A Gaussian process regression based hybrid approach for short-term wind speed prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Chi; Wei, Haikun; Zhao, Xin; Liu, Tianhong; Zhang, Kanjian

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A novel hybrid approach is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. • This method combines the parametric AR model with the non-parametric GPR model. • The relative importance of different inputs is considered. • Different types of covariance functions are considered and combined. • It can provide both accurate point forecasts and satisfactory prediction intervals. - Abstract: This paper proposes a hybrid model based on autoregressive (AR) model and Gaussian process regression (GPR) for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. In the proposed approach, the AR model is employed to capture the overall structure from wind speed series, and the GPR is adopted to extract the local structure. Additionally, automatic relevance determination (ARD) is used to take into account the relative importance of different inputs, and different types of covariance functions are combined to capture the characteristics of the data. The proposed hybrid model is compared with the persistence model, artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) for one-step ahead forecasting, using wind speed data collected from three wind farms in China. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method can not only improve point forecasts compared with other methods, but also generate satisfactory prediction intervals.

Tidal influence on offshore wind fields and resource predictions[Efficient Development of Offshore Windfarms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khan, D. [Entec UK Ltd., Doherty Innovation Centre, Penicuik (United Kingdom); Infield, D. [Loughborough Univ., Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Tecnology, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

2002-03-01

The rise and fall of the sea surface due to tides effectively moves an offshore wind turbine hub through the wind shear profile. This effect is quantified using measured data from 3 offshore UK sites. Statistical evidence of the influence of tide on mean wind speed and turbulence is presented. The implications of this effect for predicting offshore wind resource are outlined. (au)

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-05

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

Analysis of C-MOD molybdenum divertor erosion and code/data comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brooks, J.N., E-mail: brooksjn@purdue.edu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Allain, J.P. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Whyte, D.G.; Ochoukov, R.; Lipschultz, B. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (United States)

2011-08-01

We analyze an important 15 year old Alcator C-MOD study of campaign-integrated molybdenum divertor erosion in which the measured net erosion was significantly higher ({approx}X3) than originally predicted by a simple model . We perform full process sputtering erosion/redeposition computational analysis including the effect of a possible RF induced sheath. The simulations show that most sputtered Mo atoms are ionized close to the surface and strongly redeposited, via Lorentz force motion and collisional friction with the high density incoming plasma. The predicted gross erosion profile is a reasonable match to MoI influx data, however, the critically important net erosion comparison with post-exposure Mo tile analysis is poor, with {approx}X10 higher peak erosion measured than computed. An RF sheath increases predicted erosion by {approx}45%, thus being significant but not fundamental. We plan future analysis.

Nourishment of perched sand dunes and the issue of erosion control in the Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, William M.

1990-09-01

Although limited in coverage, perched sand dunes situated on high coastal bluffs are considered the most prized of Great Lakes dunes. Grand Sable Dunes on Lake Superior and Sleeping Bear Dunes on Lake Michigan are featured attractions of national lakeshores under National Park Service management. The source of sand for perched dunes is the high bluff along their lakeward edge. As onshore wind crosses the bluff, flow is accelerated upslope, resulting in greatly elevated levels of wind stress over the slope brow. On barren, sandy bluffs, wind erosion is concentrated in the brow zone, and for the Grand Sable Bluff, it averaged 1 m3/yr per linear meter along the highest sections for the period 1973 1983. This mechanism accounts for about 6,500 m3 of sand nourishment to the dunefield annually and clearly has been the predominant mechanism for the long-term development of the dunefield. However, wind erosion and dune nourishment are possible only where the bluff is denuded of plant cover by mass movements and related processes induced by wave erosion. In the Great Lakes, wave erosion and bluff retreat vary with lake levels; the nourishment of perched dunes is favored by high levels. Lake levels have been relatively high for the past 50 years, and shore erosion has become a major environmental issue leading property owners and politicians to support lake-level regulation. Trimming high water levels could reduce geomorphic activity on high bluffs and affect dune nourishment rates. Locally, nourishment also may be influenced by sediment accumulation associated with harbor protection facilities and by planting programs aimed at stabilizing dunes.

Finite element method for one-dimensional rill erosion simulation on a curved slope

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lijuan Yan

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Rill erosion models are important to hillslope soil erosion prediction and to land use planning. The development of rill erosion models and their use has become increasingly of great concern. The purpose of this research was to develop mathematic models with computer simulation procedures to simulate and predict rill erosion. The finite element method is known as an efficient tool in many other applications than in rill soil erosion. In this study, the hydrodynamic and sediment continuity model equations for a rill erosion system were solved by the Galerkin finite element method and Visual C++ procedures. The simulated results are compared with the data for spatially and temporally measured processes for rill erosion under different conditions. The results indicate that the one-dimensional linear finite element method produced excellent predictions of rill erosion processes. Therefore, this study supplies a tool for further development of a dynamic soil erosion prediction model.

Solid particle erosion of polymers and composites

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, K.; Almajid, A. A.

2014-05-01

After a general introduction to the subject of solid particle erosion of polymers and composites, the presentation focusses more specifically on the behavior of unidirectional carbon fiber (CF) reinforced polyetheretherketone (PEEK) composites under such loadings, using different impact conditions and erodents. The data were analyzed on the basis of a newly defined specific erosive wear rate, allowing a better comparison of erosion data achieved under various testing conditions. Characteristic wear mechanisms of the CF/PEEK composites consisted of fiber fracture, matrix cutting and plastic matrix deformation, the relative contribution of which depended on the impingement angles and the CF orientation. The highest wear rates were measured for impingement angles between 45 and 60°. Using abrasion resistant neat polymer films (in this case PEEK or thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) ones) on the surface of a harder substrate (e.g. a CF/PEEK composite plate) resulted in much lower specific erosive wear rates. The use of such polymeric films can be considered as a possible method to protect composite surfaces from damage caused by minor impacts and erosion. In fact, they are nowadays already successfully applied as protections for wind energy rotor blades.

Advancements in Hydrology and Erosion Process Understanding and Post-Fire Hydrologic and Erosion Model Development for Semi-Arid Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, C. Jason; Pierson, Frederick B.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Nearing, Mark A.; Hernandez, Mariano; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Goodrich, David C.

2017-04-01

Fire activity continues to increase in semi-arid regions around the globe. Private and governmental land management entities are challenged with predicting and mitigating post-fire hydrologic and erosion responses on these landscapes. For more than a decade, a team of scientists with the US Department of Agriculture has collaborated on extensive post-fire hydrologic field research and the application of field research to development of post-fire hydrology and erosion predictive technologies. Experiments funded through this research investigated the impacts of fire on vegetation and soils and the effects of these fire-induced changes on infiltration, runoff generation, erodibility, and soil erosion processes. The distribution of study sites spans diverse topography across grassland, shrubland, and woodland landscapes throughout the western United States. Knowledge gleaned from the extensive field experiments was applied to develop and enhance physically-based models for hillslope- to watershed-scale runoff and erosion prediction. Our field research and subsequent data syntheses have identified key knowledge gaps and challenges regarding post-fire hydrology and erosion modeling. Our presentation details some consistent trends across a diverse domain and varying landscape conditions based on our extensive field campaigns. We demonstrate how field data have advanced our understanding of post-fire hydrology and erosion for semi-arid landscapes and highlight remaining key knowledge gaps. Lastly, we briefly show how our well-replicated experimental methodologies have contributed to advancements in hydrologic and erosion model development for the post-fire environment.

The Monitoring Erosion of Agricultural Land and spatial database of erosion events

Science.gov (United States)

Kapicka, Jiri; Zizala, Daniel

2013-04-01

In 2011 originated in The Czech Republic The Monitoring Erosion of Agricultural Land as joint project of State Land Office (SLO) and Research Institute for Soil and Water Conservation (RISWC). The aim of the project is collecting and record keeping information about erosion events on agricultural land and their evaluation. The main idea is a creation of a spatial database that will be source of data and information for evaluation and modeling erosion process, for proposal of preventive measures and measures to reduce negative impacts of erosion events. A subject of monitoring is the manifestations of water erosion, wind erosion and slope deformation in which cause damaged agriculture land. A website, available on http://me.vumop.cz, is used as a tool for keeping and browsing information about monitored events. SLO employees carry out record keeping. RISWC is specialist institute in the Monitoring Erosion of Agricultural Land that performs keeping the spatial database, running the website, managing the record keeping of events, analysis the cause of origins events and statistical evaluations of keeping events and proposed measures. Records are inserted into the database using the user interface of the website which has map server as a component. Website is based on database technology PostgreSQL with superstructure PostGIS and MapServer UMN. Each record is in the database spatial localized by a drawing and it contains description information about character of event (data, situation description etc.) then there are recorded information about land cover and about grown crops. A part of database is photodocumentation which is taken in field reconnaissance which is performed within two days after notify of event. Another part of database are information about precipitations from accessible precipitation gauges. Website allows to do simple spatial analysis as are area calculation, slope calculation, percentage representation of GAEC etc.. Database structure was designed

Rainfall erosivity factor estimation in Republic of Moldova

Science.gov (United States)

Castraveš, Tudor; Kuhn, Nikolaus

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity represents a measure of the erosive force of rainfall. Typically, it is expressed as variable such as the R factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) or its derivates. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 minutes intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable for wide regions and countries. Usually, there are three issues regarding precipitation data: low temporal resolution, low spatial density and limited access to the data. This is especially true for some of postsoviet countries from Eastern Europe, such as Republic of Moldova, where soil erosion is a real and persistent problem (Summer, 2003) and where soils represents the main natural resource of the country. Consequently, researching and managing soil erosion is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a model based on commonly available rainfall data, such as event, daily or monthly amounts, to calculate rainfall erosivity for the territory of Republic of Moldova. Rainfall data collected during 1994-2015 period at 15 meteorological stations in the Republic of Moldova, with 10 minutes temporal resolution, were used to develop and calibrate a model to generate an erosivity map of Moldova. References 1. Summer, W., (2003). Soil erosion in the Republic of Moldova — the importance of institutional arrangements. Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 279. 2. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1965). Predicting rainfall-erosion losses from cropland east of the Rocky Mountains. Agr. Handbook No. 282, U.S. Dept. Agr., Washington, DC 3. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1978). Predicting rainfall erosion losses. Agr. handbook No. 537, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Science and Education Administration.

An appraisal of wind speed distribution prediction by soft computing methodologies: A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petković, Dalibor; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Saboohi, Hadi; Abdul Wahab, Ainuddin Wahid; Protić, Milan; Zalnezhad, Erfan; Mirhashemi, Seyed Mohammad Amin

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Probabilistic distribution functions of wind speed. • Two parameter Weibull probability distribution. • To build an effective prediction model of distribution of wind speed. • Support vector regression application as probability function for wind speed. - Abstract: The probabilistic distribution of wind speed is among the more significant wind characteristics in examining wind energy potential and the performance of wind energy conversion systems. When the wind speed probability distribution is known, the wind energy distribution can be easily obtained. Therefore, the probability distribution of wind speed is a very important piece of information required in assessing wind energy potential. For this reason, a large number of studies have been established concerning the use of a variety of probability density functions to describe wind speed frequency distributions. Although the two-parameter Weibull distribution comprises a widely used and accepted method, solving the function is very challenging. In this study, the polynomial and radial basis functions (RBF) are applied as the kernel function of support vector regression (SVR) to estimate two parameters of the Weibull distribution function according to previously established analytical methods. Rather than minimizing the observed training error, SVR p oly and SVR r bf attempt to minimize the generalization error bound, so as to achieve generalized performance. According to the experimental results, enhanced predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved using the SVR approach compared to other soft computing methodologies

Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

Science.gov (United States)

Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

2016-09-01

We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

Comparison of four Adaboost algorithm based artificial neural networks in wind speed predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei; Zhang, Lei

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Four hybrid algorithms are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Adaboost algorithm is adopted to provide a hybrid training framework. • MLP neural networks are built to do the forecasting computation. • Four important network training algorithms are included in the MLP networks. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, four different hybrid methods are proposed for the high-precision multi-step wind speed predictions based on the Adaboost (Adaptive Boosting) algorithm and the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) neural networks. In the hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture, four important algorithms are adopted for the training and modeling of the MLP neural networks, including GD-ALR-BP algorithm, GDM-ALR-BP algorithm, CG-BP-FR algorithm and BFGS algorithm. The aim of the study is to investigate the promoted forecasting percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm’ optimization under various training algorithms. The hybrid models in the performance comparison include Adaboost–GD-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP, Adaboost–BFGS–MLP, GD-ALR-BP–MLP, GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, CG-BP-FR–MLP and BFGS–MLP. Two experimental results show that: (1) the proposed hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture is effective for the wind speed predictions; (2) the Adaboost algorithm has promoted the forecasting performance of the MLP neural networks considerably; (3) among the proposed Adaboost–MLP forecasting models, the Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP model has the best performance; and (4) the improved percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm decrease step by step with the following sequence of training algorithms as: GD-ALR-BP, GDM-ALR-BP, CG-BP-FR and BFGS

Predicted erosion and sediment delivery of fallout plutonium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foster, G.R.; Hakonson, T.E.

1984-01-01

Plutonium (Pu) from fallout after atmospheric explosion of nuclear weapons in the 1950s and 1960s is being redistributed over the landscape by soil erosion and carried on sediment by streams to oceans. Erosion rates computed with the Universal Soil Loss Equation for about 200,000 sample points on nonfederal land across the US were used to estimate Pu removal rates by soil erosion by water, Pu delivery in several major rivers, and concentration of Pu on the transported sediment. Estimates of average annual Pu delivery on sediment ranged from 0.002% of the initial fallout Pu inventory for the Savannah River basin to 0.08% for the Mississippi River basin. If the deposition of Pu had been uniformly 37 Bq/m 2 , the estimated Pu activity on suspended sediment ranged from about 0.26 Bq/kg of sediment for the Savannah River basin to 0.52 Bq/kg for the Columbia and Rio Grande river basins. After 1000 yr, about 9 to 48% of the initial Pu inventory will remain in US soils that are eroding. Much of the Pu on eroded sediment will travel only a short distance from its origin before its host sediment particles are deposited and permanently located, at least for a few hundred years. As much as 90% of the initially deposited Pu will remain, redistributed over the landscape by erosion and deposition. Although the delivery rate of Pu by rivers will not decrease greatly in the next 100 yr, a significant decrease will likely occur by 1000 yr

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

Science.gov (United States)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Predicting soil erosion risk at the Alqueva dam watershed

OpenAIRE

Ferreira, Vera; Panagopoulos, Thomas

2012-01-01

Soil erosion is serious economic and environmental concern. Assessing soil erosion risk in the Alqueva dam watershed is urgently needed to conserve soil and water resources and prevent the accelerated dam siltation, taking into account the possible land-use changes, due to tourism development, intensification of irrigated farming and biomass production, as well as climate change. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model and Geographic Info...

Performance and wake predictions of HAWTs in wind farms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leclerc, C.; Masson, C.; Paraschivoiu, I. [Ecole Polytechnique, Montreal (Canada)

1997-12-31

The present contribution proposes and describes a promising way towards performance prediction of an arbitrary array of turbines. It is based on the solution of the time-averaged, steady-state, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with an appropriate turbulence closure model. The turbines are represented by distributions of momentum sources in the Navier-Stokes equations. In this paper, the applicability and viability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using an axisymmetric implementation. The k-{epsilon} model has been chosen for the closure of the time-averaged, turbulent flow equations and the properties of the incident flow correspond to those of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer. The proposed mathematical model is solved using a Control-Volume Finite Element Method (CVFEM). Detailed results have been obtained using the proposed method for an isolated wind turbine and for two turbines one behind another. In the case of an isolated turbine, accurate wake velocity deficit predictions are obtained and an increase in power due to atmospheric turbulence is found in agreement with measurements. In the case of two turbines, the proposed methodology provides an appropriate modelling of the wind-turbine wake and a realistic prediction of the performance degradation of the downstream turbine.

Development of a catchment/landscape erosion prediction model (MINErosion 4) for post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Khalifa, Ashraf; Yu, Bofu; Ghadiri, Hossain; Carroll, Chris; So, Hwat-Bing

2010-05-01

industry further require a tool that enables them to predict and manage the impact of on-site and offsite discharges from storm events and to identify the areas of high erosion risk. Work is in progress to develop a user friendly package MINErosion 4 by combining the hillslope model MINErosion 3 with ARC-GIS 9, which allows the prediction of sediment losses and deposition from proposed post-mining landscapes (designed based on criteria derived from MINErosion3) subjected to rainstorms with known recurrence intervals for selected locations. An option is provided to derive mean annual soil loss from these catchments and landscapes. Soil samples were collected from various locations on 6 minesites to provide a measure of variability in erodibilities across a minesite. The model was validated against 9 years of catchment data collected from previous projects and the agreement between predicted (Y) and measured (X) soil losses are good with regression equations of Y = 0.919 X (R2 = 0.81) for individual rainstorms, and Y= 1.473 X (R2 = 0.726) for average annual soil loss.

Wind resource estimation and siting of wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundtang Petersen, Erik; Mortensen, N.G.; Landberg, L.

1994-01-01

Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of the natural wind is necessary for the design, planning and operational aspect of wind energy systems. Here, we shall only be concerned with those meteorological aspects of wind energy planning that are termed wind resource estimation. The estimation...... of the wind resource ranges from the overall estimation of the mean energy content of the wind over a large area - called regional assessment - to the prediction of the average yearly energy production of a specific wind turbine at a specific location - called siting. A regional assessment will most often...... lead to a so-called wind atlas. A precise prediction of the wind speed at a given site is essential because for aerodynamic reasons the power output of a wind turbine is proportional to the third power of the wind speed, hence even small errors in prediction of wind speed may result in large deviations...

Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

2013-01-01

A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time...

Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jassmann, U; Matzke, D; Reiter, M; Abel, D; Berroth, J; Schelenz, R; Jacobs, G

2014-01-01

Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine

Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

Science.gov (United States)

Jassmann, U.; Berroth, J.; Matzke, D.; Schelenz, R.; Reiter, M.; Jacobs, G.; Abel, D.

2014-06-01

Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine to

MRI of the wrist and finger joints in inflammatory joint diseases at 1-year interval: MRI features to predict bone erosions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savnik, Anette; Malmskov, Hanne; Graff, Lykke B.; Danneskiold-Samsoee, Bente; Bliddal, Henning; Thomsen, Henrik S.; Nielsen, Henrik; Boesen, Jens

2002-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of MRI determined synovial volumes and bone marrow oedema to predict progressions in bone erosions after 1 year in patients with different types of inflammatory joint diseases. Eighty-four patients underwent MRI, laboratory and clinical examination at baseline and 1 year later. Magnetic resonance imaging of the wrist and finger joints was performed in 22 patients with rheumatoid arthritis less than 3 years (group 1) who fulfilled the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria for rheumatoid arthritis, 18 patients with reactive arthritis or psoriatic arthritis (group 2), 22 patients with more than 3 years duration of rheumatoid arthritis, who fulfilled the ACR criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (group 3), and 20 patients with arthralgia (group 4). The volume of the synovial membrane was outlined manually before and after gadodiamide injection on the T1-weighted sequences in the finger joints. Bones with marrow oedema were summed up in the wrist and fingers on short-tau inversion recovery sequences. These MRI features was compared with the number of bone erosions 1 year later. The MR images were scored independently under masked conditions. The synovial volumes in the finger joints assessed on pre-contrast images was highly predictive of bone erosions 1 year later in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (groups 1 and 3). The strongest individual predictor of bone erosions at 1-year follow-up was bone marrow oedema, if present at the wrist at baseline. Bone erosions on baseline MRI were in few cases reversible at follow-up MRI. The total synovial volume in the finger joints, and the presence of bone oedema in the wrist bones, seems to be predictive for the number of bone erosions 1 year later and may be used in screening. The importance of very early bone changes on MRI and the importance of the reversibility of these findings remain to be clarified. (orig.)

Predicting geomagnetic storms from solar-wind data using time-delay neural networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Gleisner

1996-07-01

Full Text Available We have used time-delay feed-forward neural networks to compute the geomagnetic-activity index Dst one hour ahead from a temporal sequence of solar-wind data. The input data include solar-wind density n, velocity V and the southward component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field. Dst is not included in the input data. The networks implement an explicit functional relationship between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbance, including both direct and time-delayed non-linear relations. In this study we especially consider the influence of varying the temporal size of the input-data sequence. The networks are trained on data covering 6600 h, and tested on data covering 2100 h. It is found that the initial and main phases of geomagnetic storms are well predicted, almost independent of the length of the input-data sequence. However, to predict the recovery phase, we have to use up to 20 h of solar-wind input data. The recovery phase is mainly governed by the ring-current loss processes, and is very much dependent on the ring-current history, and thus also the solar-wind history. With due consideration of the time history when optimizing the networks, we can reproduce 84% of the Dst variance.

Advances in modeling soil erosion after disturbance on rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

Research has been undertaken to develop process based models that predict soil erosion rate after disturbance on rangelands. In these models soil detachment is predicted as a combination of multiple erosion processes, rain splash and thin sheet flow (splash and sheet) detachment and concentrated flo...

I Got Them Dust Bowl Blues: Wind Erosion in the Music of the Southern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, J. A.

2017-12-01

This paper deals with the role of wind erosion and blowing dust on the music of the Dust Bowl region, a portion of the southern Great Plains of the United States. A defining characteristic of the region is dust storms, and in the 1930s, severe dust storms created dramatic images that came to symbolize all of the economic, social and environmental hardships suffered by the people during the 1930s. The music of the time, by Woody Guthrie and others, suggested that the region was being destroyed, never to recover. The region was resilient, however, and in recent decades, dust has been depicted in songs either as an adversity to be endured or simply as a normal part of life in the area. It may be that blowing dust has become a defining characteristic of the region because of a somewhat warped sense of pride in living in an often-difficult environment.

Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deockho Kim

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Due to the intermittency of wind power generation, it is very hard to manage its system operation and planning. In order to incorporate higher wind power penetrations into power systems that maintain secure and economic power system operation, an accurate and efficient estimation of wind power outputs is needed. In this paper, we propose the stochastic prediction of wind generating resources using an enhanced ensemble model for Jeju Island’s wind farms in South Korea. When selecting the potential sites of wind farms, wind speed data at points of interest are not always available. We apply the Kriging method, which is one of spatial interpolation, to estimate wind speed at potential sites. We also consider a wind profile power law to correct wind speed along the turbine height and terrain characteristics. After that, we used estimated wind speed data to calculate wind power output and select the best wind farm sites using a Weibull distribution. Probability density function (PDF or cumulative density function (CDF is used to estimate the probability of wind speed. The wind speed data is classified along the manufacturer’s power curve data. Therefore, the probability of wind speed is also given in accordance with classified values. The average wind power output is estimated in the form of a confidence interval. The empirical data of meteorological towers from Jeju Island in Korea is used to interpolate the wind speed data spatially at potential sites. Finally, we propose the best wind farm site among the four potential wind farm sites.

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

2016-08-01

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

Soil erosion in Iran: Issues and solutions

Science.gov (United States)

Hamidreza Sadeghi, Seyed; Cerdà, Artemi

2015-04-01

Journal of Geosciences, 7(5), 1941-1950. Khaledi Darvishan, A., Sadeghi, S. H., Homaee, M., Arabkhedri, M. 2013. Measuring sheet erosion using synthetic color-contrast aggregates. Hydrological Processes. Mahmoodabadi, M. Cerdà, A. 2013. WEPP calibration for improved predictions on interril erosion in semi-arid to arid enviorments. Geoderma, 204-205,75-83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2013.04.013, Mehdizade, B., Asadi, H., Shabanpour, M., Ghadiri, H. 2013. Impact of erosion and tillage on the productivity and quality of selected semiarid soils of Iran. International Agrophysics, 27(3), 291-297. Moghadam, B. K., Jabarifar, M., Bagheri, M., Shahbazi, E. 2015. Effects of land use change on soil splash erosion in the semi-arid region of Iran. Geoderma, 241, 210-220. Nosrati, K., Ahmadi, F. 2013. Monitoring of soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks in different land use under surface water erosion in a semi-arid drainage basin of Iran. Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management, 17(2), 225-230. Nourzadeh, M., Bahrami, H. A., Goossens, D., Fryrear, D. W. 2013. Determining soil erosion and threshold friction velocity at different soil moisture conditions using a portable wind tunnel. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, 57(1), 97-109. Sadeghi, S. H. R., Seghaleh, M. B., Rangavar, A. S. 2013. Plot sizes dependency of runoff and sediment yield estimates from a small watershed. Catena, 102, 55-61. Sadeghi, S. H. R., Seghaleh, M. B., Rangavar, A. S. 2013. Plot sizes dependency of runoff and sediment yield estimates from a small watershed. Catena, 102, 55-61. Sadeghi, S. H., Najafi, S., Riyahi Bakhtiari, A., Abdi, P. 2014. Ascribing soil erosion types for sediment yield using composite fingerprinting technique. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(9), 1753-1762. Taghizadeh-Mehrjardi, R., Minasny, B., Sarmadian, F., Malone, B. P. 2014. Digital mapping of soil salinity in Ardakan region, central Iran. Geoderma, 213, 15-28.

Watershed-scale evaluation of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in the Lake Tahoe basin

Science.gov (United States)

Erin S. Brooks; Mariana Dobre; William J. Elliot; Joan Q. Wu; Jan Boll

2016-01-01

Forest managers need methods to evaluate the impacts of management at the watershed scale. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) has the ability to model disturbed forested hillslopes, but has difficulty addressing some of the critical processes that are important at a watershed scale, including baseflow and water yield. In order to apply WEPP to...

Erosivity, surface runoff, and soil erosion estimation using GIS-coupled runoff-erosion model in the Mamuaba catchment, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Marques da Silva, Richarde; Guimarães Santos, Celso Augusto; Carneiro de Lima Silva, Valeriano; Pereira e Silva, Leonardo

2013-11-01

This study evaluates erosivity, surface runoff generation, and soil erosion rates for Mamuaba catchment, sub-catchment of Gramame River basin (Brazil) by using the ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AvSWAT) model. Calibration and validation of the model was performed on monthly basis, and it could simulate surface runoff and soil erosion to a good level of accuracy. Daily rainfall data between 1969 and 1989 from six rain gauges were used, and the monthly rainfall erosivity of each station was computed for all the studied years. In order to evaluate the calibration and validation of the model, monthly runoff data between January 1978 and April 1982 from one runoff gauge were used as well. The estimated soil loss rates were also realistic when compared to what can be observed in the field and to results from previous studies around of catchment. The long-term average soil loss was estimated at 9.4 t ha(-1) year(-1); most of the area of the catchment (60%) was predicted to suffer from a low- to moderate-erosion risk (soil erosion was estimated to exceed > 12 t ha(-1) year(-1). Expectedly, estimated soil loss was significantly correlated with measured rainfall and simulated surface runoff. Based on the estimated soil loss rates, the catchment was divided into four priority categories (low, moderate, high and very high) for conservation intervention. The study demonstrates that the AvSWAT model provides a useful tool for soil erosion assessment from catchments and facilitates the planning for a sustainable land management in northeastern Brazil.

Predicting the Extreme Loads on a Wind Turbine Considering Uncertainty in Airfoil Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abdallah, Imad; Natarajan, Anand; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

The sources contributing to uncertainty in a wind turbine blade static airfoil data include wind tunnel testing, CFD calculations, 3D rotational corrections based on CFD or emprircal models, surface roughness corrections, Reynolds number corrections, expansion to the full 360-degree angle of attack...... range, validation by full scale measurements, and geometric distortions of the blade during manufacturing and under loading. In this paper a stochastic model of the static airfoil data is proposed to supplement the prediction of extreme loads effects for large wind turbines. It is shown...... that the uncertainty in airfoil data can have e significant impact on the prediction of extreme loads effects depending on the component, and the correlation along the span of the blade....

Active Anti-erosion Protection Strategy in Tamarisk (Tamarix aphylla)

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Zhiwu; Yin, Wei; Zhang, Junqiu; Niu, Shichao; Ren, Luquan

2013-12-01

Plants have numerous active protection strategies for adapting to complex and severe environments. These strategies provide endless inspiration for extending the service life of materials and machines. Tamarisk (Tamarix aphylla), a tree that thrives in raging sandstorm regions, has adapted to blustery conditions by evolving extremely effective and robust erosion resistant characteristics. However, the relationships among its surface cracks, internal histology and biomechanics, such as cracks, rings, cells, elasticity modulus and growth stress, which account for its erosion resistance, remain unclear. This present study reveals that the directionally eccentric growth rings of tamarisk, which are attributed to reduced stress and accelerated cell division, promote the formation of surface cracks. The windward rings are more extensive than the leeward side rings. The windward surfaces are more prone to cracks, which improves erosion resistance. Our data provide insight into the active protection strategy of the tamarisk against wind-sand erosion.

Wind Power Grid Connected Capacity Prediction Using LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qunli Wu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Given the stochastic nature of wind, wind power grid-connected capacity prediction plays an essential role in coping with the challenge of balancing supply and demand. Accurate forecasting methods make enormous contribution to mapping wind power strategy, power dispatching and sustainable development of wind power industry. This study proposes a bat algorithm (BA–least squares support vector machine (LSSVM hybrid model to improve prediction performance. In order to select input of LSSVM effectively, Stationarity, Cointegration and Granger causality tests are conducted to examine the influence of installed capacity with different lags, and partial autocorrelation analysis is employed to investigate the inner relationship of grid-connected capacity. The parameters in LSSVM are optimized by BA to validate the learning ability and generalization of LSSVM. Multiple model sufficiency evaluation methods are utilized. The research results reveal that the accuracy improvement of the present approach can reach about 20% compared to other single or hybrid models.

Estimation model of soil freeze-thaw erosion in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Bo; Yu, Huan

2013-01-01

The freeze-thaw (FT) erosion is a type of soil erosion like water erosion and wind erosion. Limited by many factors, the grading evaluation of soil FT erosion quantities is not well studied. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the evaluation indices of soil FT erosion, we for the first time utilized the sensitivity of microwave remote sensing technology to soil moisture for identification of FT state. We established an estimation model suitable to evaluate the soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet using weighted summation method of six impact factors including the annual FT cycle days, average diurnal FT phase-changed water content, average annual precipitation, slope, aspect, and vegetation coverage. Finally, with the support of GIS, we classified soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland. The results showed that soil FT erosion are distributed in broad areas of Silingco watershed wetland. Different soil FT erosions with different intensities have evidently different spatial and geographical distributions.

Enhanced Voltage Control of VSC-HVDC Connected Offshore Wind Farms Based on Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

2018-01-01

This paper proposes an enhanced voltage control strategy (EVCS) based on model predictive control (MPC) for voltage source converter based high voltage direct current (VSCHVDC) connected offshore wind farms (OWFs). In the proposed MPC based EVCS, all wind turbine generators (WTGs) as well...... as the wind farm side VSC are optimally coordinated to keep voltages within the feasible range and reduce system power losses. Considering the high ratio of the OWF collector system, the effects of active power outputs of WTGs on voltage control are also taken into consideration. The predictive model of VSC...

Wind erodibility of soils from North Darfur State

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medani, G. H.; Mustafa, M. A.

2003-01-01

Wind erodibility of soils (WE) is a prime factor for the prediction, assessment and mapping of wind erosion. Hence, this study was undertaken to generate WE data and pertinent relationships for North Darfur State. Surface soil samples (0-3 cm) were collected from forty farms scattered all over the state. Non-erodible soil particles (NEP) (>0.84 mm in diameter), WE and various relevant physical and chemical soil properties were determined. Regression analysis showed that NEP significantly (p 2 =0.825), clay (r 2 =0.754), silt (r 2 =0.737) and clay/ (silt + sand) ratio (r 2 =0.663), and decreased with increase in sand (r 2 =0.761), (silt+sand) / clay ratio (r 2 =0.766) and (silt+sand) / (clay+organic matter) ratio (r 2 =0.811). The four basic soil properties and their ratios gave the reverse effects on WE with slightly lower coefficients of determinations. Although organic matter is a slightly better predictor of both NEP and WE than (Si+S)/ (C+OM) ratio, the latter is preferred because it integrates in addition to OM resilient soil properties. A multiple regression equation with a relatively high coefficient of determination (R 2 =0.830) may also be used for predicting NEP from knowledge of the four prime soil properties. These properties accounted for only 62% of the variation of WE, thus it is not recommended for prediction purposes. The determined wind erodibility groups correlated very well with those established else where.(Author)

Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ballabio, C; Meusburger, K; Klik, A

2017-01-01

to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive...... and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part...... selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency...

Discussion of “Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm generation forecasts” and “Combined nonparametric prediction intervals for wind power generation”

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Tastu, Julija

2014-01-01

A new score for the evaluation of interval forecasts, the so-called coverage width-based criterion (CWC), was proposed and utilized.. This score has been used for the tuning (in-sample) and genuine evaluation (out-ofsample) of prediction intervals for various applications, e.g., electric load [1......], electricity prices [2], general purpose prediction [3], and wind power generation [4], [5]. Indeed, two papers by the same authors appearing in the IEEE Transactions On Sustainable Energy employ that score and use it to conclude on the comparative quality of alternative approaches to interval forecasting...

Adjoint-based model predictive control of wind farms : Beyond the quasi steady-state power maximization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vali, M.; Petrović, Vlaho; Boersma, S.; van Wingerden, J.W.; Kuhn, Martin; Dochain, Denis; Henrion, Didier; Peaucelle, Dimitri

2017-01-01

In this paper, we extend our closed-loop optimal control framework for wind farms to minimize wake-induced power losses. We develop an adjoint-based model predictive controller which employs a medium-fidelity 2D dynamic wind farm model. The wind turbine axial induction factors are considered here

Soil erosion assessment on hillslope of GCE using RUSLE model

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, Md. Rabiul; Jaafar, Wan Zurina Wan; Hin, Lai Sai; Osman, Normaniza; Din, Moktar Aziz Mohd; Zuki, Fathiah Mohamed; Srivastava, Prashant; Islam, Tanvir; Adham, Md. Ibrahim

2018-06-01

A new method for obtaining the C factor (i.e., vegetation cover and management factor) of the RUSLE model is proposed. The method focuses on the derivation of the C factor based on the vegetation density to obtain a more reliable erosion prediction. Soil erosion that occurs on the hillslope along the highway is one of the major problems in Malaysia, which is exposed to a relatively high amount of annual rainfall due to the two different monsoon seasons. As vegetation cover is one of the important factors in the RUSLE model, a new method that accounts for a vegetation density is proposed in this study. A hillslope near the Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE), Malaysia, is chosen as an experimental site whereby eight square plots with the size of 8× 8 and 5× 5 m are set up. A vegetation density available on these plots is measured by analyzing the taken image followed by linking the C factor with the measured vegetation density using several established formulas. Finally, erosion prediction is computed based on the RUSLE model in the Geographical Information System (GIS) platform. The C factor obtained by the proposed method is compared with that of the soil erosion guideline Malaysia, thereby predicted erosion is determined by both the C values. Result shows that the C value from the proposed method varies from 0.0162 to 0.125, which is lower compared to the C value from the soil erosion guideline, i.e., 0.8. Meanwhile predicted erosion computed from the proposed C value is between 0.410 and 3.925 t ha^{-1 } yr^{-1} compared to 9.367 to 34.496 t ha^{-1} yr^{-1 } range based on the C value of 0.8. It can be concluded that the proposed method of obtaining a reasonable C value is acceptable as the computed predicted erosion is found to be classified as a very low zone, i.e. less than 10 t ha^{-1 } yr^{-1} whereas the predicted erosion based on the guideline has classified the study area as a low zone of erosion, i.e., between 10 and 50 t ha^{-1 } yr^{-1}.

Energy Coordinative Optimization of Wind-Storage-Load Microgrids Based on Short-Term Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changbin Hu

2015-02-01

Full Text Available According to the topological structure of wind-storage-load complementation microgrids, this paper proposes a method for energy coordinative optimization which focuses on improvement of the economic benefits of microgrids in the prediction framework. First of all, the external characteristic mathematical model of distributed generation (DG units including wind turbines and storage batteries are established according to the requirements of the actual constraints. Meanwhile, using the minimum consumption costs from the external grid as the objective function, a grey prediction model with residual modification is introduced to output the predictive wind turbine power and load at specific periods. Second, based on the basic framework of receding horizon optimization, an intelligent genetic algorithm (GA is applied to figure out the optimum solution in the predictive horizon for the complex non-linear coordination control model of microgrids. The optimum results of the GA are compared with the receding solution of mixed integer linear programming (MILP. The obtained results show that the method is a viable approach for energy coordinative optimization of microgrid systems for energy flow and reasonable schedule. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by examples.

Dust records in the Pleistocene sediments of Fraser Island: palaeoclimatic reconstruction of wind erosion over the last 600 ka

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Longmore, M.E.; McTainsh, G.H.

1997-01-01

Full text: Pleistocene lake sediments from a relic perched freshwater lake on Fraser Island have been found to date back to ca.600 ka using U/Th analysis of the organics. This sequence is one of the three longest terrestrial records of environmental change in Australia and the contained evidence of vegetation, fire and lake level changes (Longmore and Heijnis, 1996) and is an invaluable contribution to palaeoclimatic reconstruction. A younger sequence, dated by conventional radiocarbon analysis, has 6.5 m of continuous organic sedimentation from ca. 30 ka to the present. The last 8.5 ka has been analysed in detail, showing a mid-Holocene 'dry' period (Longmore, 1996). Continental aeolian dust from extreme wind erosional events has been measured in modern atmospheres (McTainsh, 1989; Knight et al., 1995) and deep sea cores (Hesse, 1994), but the terrestrial record of wind erosion during the Pleistocene is sparse. We will report on a pilot project to determine the presence of aeolian dust from extreme wind erosional events in the past in the sediments of Fraser Island lakes. Due to the highly weathered, well-sorted, siliceous nature of the dune sands forming the Island and the highly organic nature of the lake sediments (80-95% LOI), these are some of the few terrestrial sequences that permit separation of aeolian dust from local catchment materials. In the future, oxygen isotope and XRD analysis of the extracted dust will allow the most likely source of the entrained material to be determined and thus provide further evidence as to the wind regime during the last 600ka and 30ka respectively. The separation of dust from these terrestrial sequences is a major achievement and potentially may make a significant contribution to global palaeoclimatic models

Estimated erosion rate at the SRP burial ground

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horton, J.H.; Wilhite, E.L.

1978-04-01

The rate of soil erosion at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) burial ground can be calculated by means of the universal soil loss equation. Erosion rates estimated by the equation are more suitable for long-term prediction than those which could be measured with a reasonable effort in field studies. The predicted erosion rate at the SRP burial ground ranges from 0.0007 cm/year under stable forest cover to 0.38 cm/year if farmed with cultivated crops. These values correspond to 170,000 and 320 years, respectively, to expose waste buried 4 ft deep

Numerical and experimental investigations on cavitation erosion

Science.gov (United States)

Fortes Patella, R.; Archer, A.; Flageul, C.

2012-11-01

A method is proposed to predict cavitation damage from cavitating flow simulations. For this purpose, a numerical process coupling cavitating flow simulations and erosion models was developed and applied to a two-dimensional (2D) hydrofoil tested at TUD (Darmstadt University of Technology, Germany) [1] and to a NACA 65012 tested at LMH-EPFL (Lausanne Polytechnic School) [2]. Cavitation erosion tests (pitting tests) were carried out and a 3D laser profilometry was used to analyze surfaces damaged by cavitation [3]. The method allows evaluating the pit characteristics, and mainly the volume damage rates. The paper describes the developed erosion model, the technique of cavitation damage measurement and presents some comparisons between experimental results and numerical damage predictions. The extent of cavitation erosion was correctly estimated in both hydrofoil geometries. The simulated qualitative influence of flow velocity, sigma value and gas content on cavitation damage agreed well with experimental observations.

Active Power Optimal Control of Wind Turbines with Doubly Fed Inductive Generators Based on Model Predictive Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo Jiuwang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Because of the randomness and fluctuation of wind energy, as well as the impact of strongly nonlinear characteristic of variable speed constant frequency (VSCF wind power generation system with doubly fed induction generators (DFIG, traditional active power control strategies are difficult to achieve high precision control and the output power of wind turbines is more fluctuated. In order to improve the quality of output electric energy of doubly fed wind turbines, on the basis of analyzing the operating principles and dynamic characteristics of doubly fed wind turbines, this paper proposes a new active power optimal control method of doubly fed wind turbines based on predictive control theory. This method uses state space model of wind turbines, based on the prediction of the future state of wind turbines, moves horizon optimization, and meanwhile, gets the control signals of pitch angle and generator torque. Simulation results show that the proposed control strategies can guarantee the utilization efficiency for wind energy. Simultaneously, they can improve operation stability of wind turbines and the quality of electric energy.

Vegetation in drylands: Effects on wind flow and aeolian sediment transport

Science.gov (United States)

Drylands are characterised by patchy vegetation, erodible surfaces and erosive aeolian processes. Empirical and modelling studies have shown that vegetation elements provide drag on the overlying airflow, thus affecting wind velocity profiles and altering erosive dynamics on desert surfaces. However...

KwaZulu-Natal coastal erosion events of 2006/2007 and 2011: A predictive tool?

OpenAIRE

Alan Smith; Lisa A. Guastella; Andrew A. Mather; Simon C. Bundy; Ivan D. Haigh

2013-01-01

Severe coastal erosion occurred along the KwaZulu-Natal coastline between mid-May and November 2011. Analysis of this erosion event and comparison with previous coastal erosion events in 2006/2007 offered the opportunity to extend the understanding of the time and place of coastal erosion strikes. The swells that drove the erosion hotspots of the 2011 erosion season were relatively low (significant wave heights were between 2 m and 4.5 m) but of long duration. Although swell height was import...

A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

Science.gov (United States)

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Bridge, Thomas M.; Amaya, Max A.

2014-01-01

A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

[Species-associated differences in foliage-root coupling soil-reinforcement and anti-erosion].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fu-quan; Liu, Jing; Nao, Min; Yao, Xi-jun; Zheng, Yong-gang; Li, You-fang; Su, Yu; Wang, Chen-jia

2015-02-01

This paper took four kinds of common soil and water conservation plants of the study area, Caragana microphylla, Salix psammophila, Artemisia sphaerocephala and Hippophae rhamnides at ages of 4 as the research object. Thirteen indicators, i.e., single shrub to reduce wind velocity ration, shelterbelt reducing wind velocity ration, community reducing wind velocity ration, taproot tensile strength, representative root constitutive properties, representative root elasticity modulus, lateral root branch tensile strength, accumulative surface area, root-soil interface sheer strength, interface friction coefficient, accumulative root length, root-soil composite cohesive, root-soil composite equivalent friction angle, reflecting the characteristics of windbreak and roots, were chose to evaluate the differences of foliage-root coupling soil-reinforcement and anti-erosion among four kinds of plants by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) under the condition of spring gale and summer rainstorm, respectively. The results showed the anti-erosion index of foliage-root coupling was in the sequence of S. psammophila (0.841) > C. microphylla (0.454) > A. sphaerocephala (-0.466) > H. rhamnides (-0.829) in spring gale, and C. microphylla (0.841) > S. psammophila (0. 474) > A. sphaerocephala (-0.470) > H. rhamnides (-0.844) in summer rainstorm. S. psammophila could be regarded as one of the most important windbreak and anti-erosion species, while C. microphylla could be the most valuable soil and water conservation plant for the study area.

Soil erodibility for water erosion: A perspective and Chinese experiences

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bin; Zheng, Fenli; Römkens, Mathias J. M.; Darboux, Frédéric

2013-04-01

Knowledge of soil erodibility is an essential requirement for erosion prediction, conservation planning, and the assessment of sediment related environmental effects of watershed agricultural practices. This paper reviews the status of soil erodibility evaluations and determinations based on 80 years of upland area erosion research mainly in China and the USA. The review synthesizes the general research progress made by discussing the basic concepts of erodibility and its evaluation, determination, and prediction as well as knowledge of its spatio-temporal variations. The authors found that soil erodibility is often inappropriately or inaccurately applied in describing soil loss caused by different soil erosion component processes and mechanisms. Soil erodibility indicators were related to intrinsic soil properties and exogenic erosional forces, measurements, and calculations. The present review describes major needs including: (1) improved definition of erodibility, (2) modified erodibility determinations in erosion models, especially for specific geographical locations and in the context of different erosion sub-processes, (3) advanced methodologies for quantifying erodibilities of different soil erosion sub-processes, and (4) a better understanding of the mechanism that causes temporal variations in soil erodibility. The review also provides a more rational basis for future research on soil erodibility and supports predictive modeling of soil erosion processes and the development of improved conservation practices.

Application of model predictive control for optimal operation of wind turbines

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Yuan; Cao, Pei; Tang, J.

2017-04-01

For large-scale wind turbines, reducing maintenance cost is a major challenge. Model predictive control (MPC) is a promising approach to deal with multiple conflicting objectives using the weighed sum approach. In this research, model predictive control method is applied to wind turbine to find an optimal balance between multiple objectives, such as the energy capture, loads on turbine components, and the pitch actuator usage. The actuator constraints are integrated into the objective function at the control design stage. The analysis is carried out in both the partial load region and full load region, and the performances are compared with those of a baseline gain scheduling PID controller. The application of this strategy achieves enhanced balance of component loads, the average power and actuator usages in partial load region.

Assessing soil erosion risk in the Tillabery landscape, Niger ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The results show that soil erosion output scenarios predict greater soil erosion in the study area from 2070 onwards. They suggest that human disturbance and topographic factors are the main impact factors in the affected areas. Key words: Tillabéry landscape (Niger), sheet and rill erosion modelling, data mining.

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in reducing post-fire runoff and erosion at plot scale with the RUSLE, MMF and PESERA models.

Science.gov (United States)

Vieira, D C S; Serpa, D; Nunes, J P C; Prats, S A; Neves, R; Keizer, J J

2018-08-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters, make this a region prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. This threat is expected to be aggravated in the future due to climate change and land management practices and planning. The wide recognition of wildfires as a driver for runoff and erosion in burnt forest areas has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire management operations to mitigate these responses. In this study, the effectiveness of two post-fire treatments (hydromulch and natural pine needle mulch) in reducing post-fire runoff and soil erosion was evaluated against control conditions (i.e. untreated conditions), at different spatial scales. The main objective of this study was to use field data to evaluate the ability of different erosion models: (i) empirical (RUSLE), (ii) semi-empirical (MMF), and (iii) physically-based (PESERA), to predict the hydrological and erosive response as well as the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in fire-affected areas. The results of this study showed that all three models were reasonably able to reproduce the hydrological and erosive processes occurring in burned forest areas. In addition, it was demonstrated that the models can be calibrated at a small spatial scale (0.5 m 2 ) but provide accurate results at greater spatial scales (10 m 2 ). From this work, the RUSLE model seems to be ideal for fast and simple applications (i.e. prioritization of areas-at-risk) mainly due to its simplicity and reduced data requirements. On the other hand, the more complex MMF and PESERA models would be valuable as a base of a possible tool for assessing the risk of water contamination in fire-affected water bodies and

Wear Resistance Performance of Conventional and Non-Conventional Wind Turbine Blades with TiN Nano-Coating

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Hasibul Hasan

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Efficiency and durability are critical issues that affect widely-adopted aerofoil-power generator as a sustainable source of electrical power. Even though high wind power density can be achieved; installing wind turbines in desert condition has difficulties including thermal variation, high turbulence and sand storms. Sand blasting on turbine blade surface at high velocities causes erosion resulting turbine efficiency drop. Damage-induced erosion phenomena and aeroelastic performance of the blades needed to be investigated. Suitable coating may prevent erosion to a great extent. A numerical investigation of erosion on NACA 4412 wind turbine blade has been performed using commercial computational fluid dynamics software ANSYS FLUENT 14.5 release. Discrete phase model (DPM has been used for modelling multi-phase flow of air and sand particles over the turbine blade. Governing equations have been solved by finite volume method (FVM. Conventional 30-70% glass fibre resin and non-conventional jute fibre composite have been used as turbine blade material. Sand particles of  diameter have been injected from 20, 30, 45, 60 and 90 degree angles at 500C temperature. Erosion rate, wall shear stress and strain rate have been calculated for different wind velocities and impingement angles. Simulation results for higher velocities deviate from the results observed at lower wind velocities. In simulation, erosion rate is highest for impingement angle at low wind velocities, which has been validated by experiment with a mean absolute error (MAE of 5.56%. Erosion rate and wall shear stress are higher on jute composite fibre than glass fibre resin. Developed shear stress on wind turbine blade surface is highest for  impingement angle at all velocities. On the other hand, exerted pressure on turbine blade surface is found highest for 9  angle of attack. Experimental results, with or without Titanium nitride(TiN nano-coating, also revealed that surface roughness

Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lars Christian

Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving...

Performance of the SWEEP model affected by estimates of threshold friction velocity

Science.gov (United States)

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) is a process-based model and needs to be verified under a broad range of climatic, soil, and management conditions. Occasional failure of the WEPS erosion submodel (Single-event Wind Erosion Evaluation Program or SWEEP) to simulate erosion in the Columbia Pl...

Feature selection in wind speed prediction systems based on a hybrid coral reefs optimization – Extreme learning machine approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Pastor-Sánchez, A.; Prieto, L.; Blanco-Aguilera, A.; García-Herrera, R.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction is presented. • The system is formed by a coral reefs optimization algorithm and an extreme learning machine. • Feature selection is carried out with the CRO to improve the ELM performance. • The method is tested in real wind farm data in USA, for the period 2007–2008. - Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction based on a Coral Reefs Optimization algorithm (CRO) and an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), using meteorological predictive variables from a physical model (the Weather Research and Forecast model, WRF). The approach is based on a Feature Selection Problem (FSP) carried out with the CRO, that must obtain a reduced number of predictive variables out of the total available from the WRF. This set of features will be the input of an ELM, that finally provides the wind speed prediction. The CRO is a novel bio-inspired approach, based on the simulation of reef formation and coral reproduction, able to obtain excellent results in optimization problems. On the other hand, the ELM is a new paradigm in neural networks’ training, that provides a robust and extremely fast training of the network. Together, these algorithms are able to successfully solve this problem of feature selection in short-term wind speed prediction. Experiments in a real wind farm in the USA show the excellent performance of the CRO–ELM approach in this FSP wind speed prediction problem

Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgarpour, Masoud

2017-01-01

monitoring, fault detection and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

Quantification Of Erosion Rates Of Agriculturally Used Soils By Artificial

Science.gov (United States)

Jha, Abhinand

2010-05-01

0.0.1 1. Introduction to soil erosion measurement by radionuclides Soil erosion by water, wind and tillage affects both agriculture and the natural environment. Studying this phenomenon would be one of the advancements in science. Soil erosion occurs worldwide and since the last two decades it has been a main topic of discussion all over the world. The use of environmental radionuclides such as 90Sr, 137Cs to study medium term soil erosion (40 yrs) started in the early 1990's. Using these new techniques better knowledge about erosion can be gained and this knowledge can be implemented for erosion risk management. The erosion and sedimentation study by using man-made and natural radioisotopes is a key technique, which has developed over the past 30 years. Fallout 137Cs and Cosmogenic 7Be are radionuclides that have been used to provide independent measurements of soil-erosion and sediment-deposition rates and patterns [1] [2] [3] [4]. Erosion measurements using radionuclides 137Cs, 7Be Caesium-137 from atmospheric nuclear-weapons tests in the 1950s and 1960s (Fig.1) is a unique tracer of erosion and sedimentation, since there are no natural sources of 137Cs. Unique events such as the Chernobyl accident in April 1986 caused regional dispersal of 137Cs that affects the total global deposition budget. This yearly pattern of fallout can be used to develop a chronology of deposition horizons in lakes, reservoirs, and floodplains. 137Cs can be easily measured by gamma spectroscopy. Using 137Cs is a fast and cheap method to study erosion-deposition processes compared to the traditional methods like silt bags. PIC Figure 1: Global 137Cs fallout (Modified from SAAS Bulletin 353, Part E, DDR, 1986) When 137Cs, 7Be reach the soil surface by wet and dry deposition, they are quickly and strongly adsorbed by ion exchange and are essentially non exchangeable in most environments. Each radionuclide is distributed differently in the soil because of differences in half-lives (30 yrs

Development of ANN Model for Wind Speed Prediction as a Support for Early Warning System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Marović

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of natural disasters increases every year with more casualties and damage to property and the environment. Therefore, it is important to prevent consequences by implementation of the early warning system (EWS in order to announce the possibility of the harmful phenomena occurrence. In this paper, focus is placed on the implementation of the EWS on the micro location in order to announce possible harmful phenomena occurrence caused by wind. In order to predict such phenomena (wind speed, an artificial neural network (ANN prediction model is developed. The model is developed on the basis of the input data obtained by local meteorological station on the University of Rijeka campus area in the Republic of Croatia. The prediction model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches, after which it was found that it is possible to perform very good wind speed prediction for time steps Δt=1 h, Δt=3 h, and Δt=8 h. The developed model is implemented in the EWS as a decision support for improvement of the existing “procedure plan in a case of the emergency caused by stormy wind or hurricane, snow and occurrence of the ice on the University of Rijeka campus.”

How Many Model Evaluations Are Required To Predict The AEP Of A Wind Power Plant?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Natarajan, Anand

2015-01-01

(AEP) predictions expensive. The objective of the present paper is to minimize the number of model evaluations required to capture the wind power plant's AEP using stationary wind farm flow models. Polynomial chaos techniques are proposed based on arbitrary Weibull distributed wind speed and Von Misses...... distributed wind direction. The correlation between wind direction and wind speed are captured by defining Weibull-parameters as functions of wind direction. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these methods the expectation and variance of the wind farm power distributions are compared against...... the traditional binning method with trapezoidal and Simpson's integration rules. The wind farm flow model used in this study is the semi-empirical wake model developed by Larsen [1]. Three test cases are studied: a single turbine, a simple and a real offshore wind power plant. A reduced number of model...

EVALUATION OF SOIL EROSION IN REGHIN HILLS USING THE USLE METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. SZILAGYI

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Soil erosion is one of the main causes of degradation of large areas of agricultural land, causing great economic loss by removing fertile soil. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE predicts the long term average annual rate of erosion on a field slope based on rainfall pattern, soil type, topography, crop system and management practices but does not however predict the soil loss resulting from gully erosion.

Prediction of wind energy distribution in complex terrain using CFD