WorldWideScience

Sample records for wildlife loss estimates

  1. Wildlife Loss Estimates and Summary of Previous Mitigation Related to Hydroelectric Projects in Montana, Volume Three, Hungry Horse Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, Daniel

    1984-10-01

    This assessment addresses the impacts to the wildlife populations and wildlife habitats due to the Hungry Horse Dam project on the South Fork of the Flathead River and previous mitigation of theses losses. In order to develop and focus mitigation efforts, it was first necessary to estimate wildlife and wildlife hatitat losses attributable to the construction and operation of the project. The purpose of this report was to document the best available information concerning the degree of impacts to target wildlife species. Indirect benefits to wildlife species not listed will be identified during the development of alternative mitigation measures. Wildlife species incurring positive impacts attributable to the project were identified.

  2. Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation

  3. Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II

    1994-09-01

    This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation.

  4. Estimates of soil ingestion by wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, W.N.; Connor, E.E.; Gerould, S.

    1994-01-01

    Many wildlife species ingest soil while feeding, but ingestion rates are known for only a few species. Knowing ingestion rates may be important for studies of environmental contaminants. Wildlife may ingest soil deliberately, or incidentally, when they ingest soil-laden forage or animals that contain soil. We fed white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) diets containing 0-15% soil to relate the dietary soil content to the acid-insoluble ash content of scat collected from the mice. The relation was described by an equation that required estimates of the percent acid-insoluble ash content of the diet, digestibility of the diet, and mineral content of soil. We collected scat from 28 wildlife species by capturing animals, searching appropriate habitats for scat, or removing material from the intestines of animals collected for other purposes. We measured the acid-insoluble ash content of the scat and estimated the soil content of the diets by using the soil-ingestion equation. Soil ingestion estimates should be considered only approximate because they depend on estimated rather than measured digestibility values and because animals collected from local populations at one time of the year may not represent the species as a whole. Sandpipers (Calidris spp.), which probe or peck for invertebrates in mud or shallow water, consumed sediments at a rate of 7-30% of their diets. Nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus, soil = 17% of diet), American woodcock (Scolopax minor, 10%), and raccoon (Procyon lotor, 9%) had high rates of soil ingestion, presumably because they ate soil organisms. Bison (Bison bison, 7%), black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus, 8%), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis, 8%) consumed soil at the highest rates among the herbivores studied, and various browsers studied consumed little soil. Box turtle (Terrapene carolina, 4%), opossum (Didelphis virginiana, 5%), red fox (Vulpes vulpes, 3%), and wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo, 9%) consumed soil

  5. Estimating Exposure of Terrestrial Wildlife to Contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents a general model for exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants (Sect. 2), methods for estimating parameters of the model (Sect. 3), species specific parameters for endpoint species on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (Sect. 4), and a sample application (Sect. 5). Exposure can be defined as the coincidence in both space and time of a receptor and a stressor, such that the receptor and stressor come into contact and interact (Risk Assessment Forum 1992). In the context of ecological risk assessment, receptors include all endpoint species or communities identified for a site [see Suter (1989) and Suter et al. (1994) for discussions of ecological endpoints for waste sites]. In the context of waste site assessments, stressors are chemical contaminations, and the contact and interaction are uptake of the contaminant by the receptor. Without sufficient exposure of the receptor to the contaminants, there is no ecological risk. Unlike some other endpoint assemblages, terrestrial wildlife are significantly exposed to contaminants in multiple media. They may drink or swim in contaminated water, ingest contaminated food and soil, and breath contaminated air. In addition, because most wildlife are mobile, moving among and within habitats, exposure is not restricted to a single location. They may integrate contamination from several spatially discrete sources. Therefore, exposure models for terrestrial wildlife must include multiple media. This document provides models and parameters for estimating exposure of birds and mammals. Reptiles and amphibians are not considered because few data exist with which to assess exposure to these organisms. In addition, because toxicological data are scarce for both classes, evaluation of the significance of exposure estimates is problematic. However, the general exposure estimation procedure developed herein for birds and mammals is applicable to reptiles and amphibians. Exposure models must be appropriate to the

  6. Performance of sampling methods to estimate log characteristics for wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa J. Bate; Torolf R. Torgersen; Michael J. Wisdom; Edward O. Garton

    2004-01-01

    Accurate estimation of the characteristics of log resources, or coarse woody debris (CWD), is critical to effective management of wildlife and other forest resources. Despite the importance of logs as wildlife habitat, methods for sampling logs have traditionally focused on silvicultural and fire applications. These applications have emphasized estimates of log volume...

  7. Estimating relative demand for wildlife: Conservation activity indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Gary G.; Larson, Joseph S.

    1982-09-01

    An alternative method of estimating relative demand among nonconsumptive uses of wildlife and among wildlife species is proposed. A demand intensity score (DIS), derived from the relative extent of an individual's involvement in outdoor recreation and conservation activities, is used as a weighting device to adjust the importance of preference rankings for wildlife uses and wildlife species relative to other members of a survey population. These adjusted preference rankings were considered to reflect relative demand levels (RDLs) for wildlife uses and for species by the survey population. This technique may be useful where it is not possible or desirable to estimate demand using traditional economic means. In one of the findings from a survey of municipal conservation commission members in Massachusetts, presented as an illustration of this methodology, poisonous snakes were ranked third in preference among five groups of reptiles. The relative demand level for poisonous snakes, however, was last among the five groups.

  8. Wanaket Wildlife Area Management Plan : Five-Year Plan for Protecting, Enhancing, and Mitigating Wildlife Habitat Losses for the McNary Hydroelectric Facility.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation Wildlife Program

    2001-09-01

    The Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (CTUIR) propose to continue to protect, enhance, and mitigate wildlife and wildlife habitat at the Wanaket Wildlife Area. The Wanaket Wildlife Area was approved as a Columbia River Basin Wildlife Mitigation Project by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and Northwest Power Planning Council (NWPPC) in 1993. This management plan will provide an update of the original management plan approved by BPA in 1995. Wanaket will contribute towards meeting BPA's obligation to compensate for wildlife habitat losses resulting from the construction of the McNary Hydroelectric facility on the Columbia River. By funding the enhancement and operation and maintenance of the Wanaket Wildlife Area, BPA will receive credit towards their mitigation debt. The purpose of the Wanaket Wildlife Area management plan update is to provide programmatic and site-specific standards and guidelines on how the Wanaket Wildlife Area will be managed over the next five years. This plan provides overall guidance on both short and long term activities that will move the area towards the goals, objectives, and desired future conditions for the planning area. The plan will incorporate managed and protected wildlife and wildlife habitat, including operations and maintenance, enhancements, and access and travel management. Specific project objectives are related to protection and enhancement of wildlife habitats and are expressed in terms of habitat units (HU's). Habitat units were developed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP), and are designed to track habitat gains and/or losses associated with mitigation and/or development projects. Habitat Units for a given species are a product of habitat quantity (expressed in acres) and habitat quality estimates. Habitat quality estimates are developed using Habitat Suitability Indices (HSI). These indices are based on quantifiable habitat features such

  9. Improving estimation of flight altitude in wildlife telemetry studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poessel, Sharon; Duerr, Adam E.; Hall, Jonathan C.; Braham, Melissa A.; Katzner, Todd

    2018-01-01

    Altitude measurements from wildlife tracking devices, combined with elevation data, are commonly used to estimate the flight altitude of volant animals. However, these data often include measurement error. Understanding this error may improve estimation of flight altitude and benefit applied ecology.There are a number of different approaches that have been used to address this measurement error. These include filtering based on GPS data, filtering based on behaviour of the study species, and use of state-space models to correct measurement error. The effectiveness of these approaches is highly variable.Recent studies have based inference of flight altitude on misunderstandings about avian natural history and technical or analytical tools. In this Commentary, we discuss these misunderstandings and suggest alternative strategies both to resolve some of these issues and to improve estimation of flight altitude. These strategies also can be applied to other measures derived from telemetry data.Synthesis and applications. Our Commentary is intended to clarify and improve upon some of the assumptions made when estimating flight altitude and, more broadly, when using GPS telemetry data. We also suggest best practices for identifying flight behaviour, addressing GPS error, and using flight altitudes to estimate collision risk with anthropogenic structures. Addressing the issues we describe would help improve estimates of flight altitude and advance understanding of the treatment of error in wildlife telemetry studies.

  10. A collaborative approach for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Jason I.; Kaczensky, Petra; Lubow, Bruce C.; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Altansukh, Nanjid

    2012-01-01

    Accurately estimating abundance of wildlife is critical for establishing effective conservation and management strategies. Aerial methodologies for estimating abundance are common in developed countries, but they are often impractical for remote areas of developing countries where many of the world's endangered and threatened fauna exist. The alternative terrestrial methodologies can be constrained by limitations on access, technology, and human resources, and have rarely been comprehensively conducted for large terrestrial mammals at landscape scales. We attempted to overcome these problems by incorporating local peoples into a simultaneous point count of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) and goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) across the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia. Paired observers collected abundance and covariate metrics at 50 observation points and we estimated population sizes using distance sampling theory, but also assessed individual observer error to examine potential bias introduced by the large number of minimally trained observers. We estimated 5671 (95% CI = 3611–8907) wild asses and 5909 (95% CI = 3762–9279) gazelle inhabited the 11,027 km2 study area at the time of our survey and found that the methodology developed was robust at absorbing the logistical challenges and wide range of observer abilities. This initiative serves as a functional model for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance while integrating local people into scientific and conservation projects. This, in turn, creates vested interest in conservation by the people who are most influential in, and most affected by, the outcomes.

  11. Wildlife

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadwell, L.L.; Simmons, M.A.

    1995-06-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the significant activities conducted in 1994 to monitor the wildlife resources of the Site. Wildlife populations inhabiting the Hanford Site are monitored in order to measure the status and condition of the populations and assess effects of Hanford operations.

  12. Wildlife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwell, L.L.; Simmons, M.A.

    1995-01-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the significant activities conducted in 1994 to monitor the wildlife resources of the Site. Wildlife populations inhabiting the Hanford Site are monitored in order to measure the status and condition of the populations and assess effects of Hanford operations

  13. Estimated annual economic loss from organ condemnation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    as a basis for the analysis of estimation of the economic significance of bovine .... percent involvement of each organ were used in the estimation of the financial loss from organ .... DVM thesis, Addis Ababa University, Faculty of Veterinary.

  14. Connecting above and below: the impacts of large wildlife loss and pastoralism on savanna carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, E. S.; Young, H. S.; Young, T.; Schimel, J.

    2016-12-01

    There is widespread evidence that large wildlife species contribute to ecosystem carbon efflux; however, their influence is not incorporated into traditional carbon models. As large wildlife loss continues in the Anthropocene and in the face of climate change, it becomes increasingly important to understand the impacts of their loss on ecosystem carbon. The charismatic, threatened wildlife in central Kenya's savanna provide an ideal framework for these questions. We compared differences in carbon efflux in the presence or absence of native herbivores and/or cattle, as a proxy for wildlife loss and the interaction of pastoralism. We measured carbon dynamics in situ with a closed-chamber system and microbial respiration rates in lab by incubating sampled soil. We discovered a significant effect of herbivore presence/absence on carbon efflux: incubated soils collected from plots with cattle only exhibit greater carbon accumulation and faster initial respiration rates than soils collected from plots with native herbivores and no cattle, native herbivores and cattle, and neither native herbivores nor cattle. When measured in situ, plots with no herbivores show higher efflux than plots with only native herbivores, and plots with both. The data also suggest that grazing pressure results in successively lower efflux. The differences in these studies imply that the impacts of large wildlife loss differ on microbial respiration as an isolated mechanism in ecosystem carbon exchange, and total carbon efflux. This is most likely because in situ efflux measurements encompass environmental variables as well as soil microbial respiration. The lab data suggest that cattle as the only herbivore causes greater soil microbial efflux compared to native herbivores alone, native herbivores with cattle, or no herbivores. The in situ data show that no herbivores results in increased carbon efflux, and suggest that increasing numbers of herbivores lowers efflux.These studies demonstrate

  15. Spatio-temporal patterns of attacks on human and economic losses from wildlife in Chitwan National Park, Nepal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamichhaen, B.R.; Persoon, G.A.; Leirs, H.; Poudel, S.; Subedi, N.; Pokheral, C.P.; Bhattarai, S.; Thapalia, B.P.; Iongh, de H.H.

    2018-01-01

    Wildlife attacks on humans and economic losses often result in reduced support of local communities for wildlife conservation. Information on spatial and temporal patterns of such losses in the highly affected areas contribute in designing and implementing effective mitigation measures. We analyzed

  16. Wildlife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    Animals from the Hanford environs were collected and analyzed for gamma-emitting radionuclides. Wildlife is a potential pathway for the exposure of people who hunt or fish near the Hanford Site. Low levels of radionuclides attributed to past operations at Hanford were observed in several samples of whitefish collected from the Columbia River and in ducks collected from onsite wastewater ponds. In addition, a special study conducted during 1980 determined that Hanford deer contained small amounts of 129 I attributable to onsite operations. Calculated doses resulting from assumed consumption of the samples were very small and far below dose standards

  17. Estimation of radiation losses from sheathed thermocouples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, I.L.; Coney, J.E.R.; Gibbs, B.M.

    2011-01-01

    Thermocouples are often used for temperature measurements in heat exchangers. However if the radiation losses from a thermocouple in a high temperature gas flow to colder surroundings are ignored significant errors can occur. Even at moderate temperature differences, these can be significant. Prediction of radiation losses from theory can be problematic, especially in situations where there are large variations in the measured temperatures as the emissivity and radiative heat transfer coefficient of the thermocouple are not constant. The following approach combines experimental results with established empirical relationships to estimate losses due to radiation in an annular heat exchanger at temperatures up to 950 o C. - Highlights: → Sheathed thermocouples are often used to measure temperatures in heat exchangers. → Errors are introduced if radiation losses are ignored. → Radiation losses are environment specific and may be significant. → Experimental and theoretical methods are used to estimate losses. → Hot side maximum temperature 950 o C.

  18. Drivers and annual estimates of marine wildlife entanglement rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McIntosh, R.R.; Kirkwood, Roger; Sutherland, D.R.; Dann, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Methods of calculating wildlife entanglement rates are not standardised between studies and often ignore the influence of observer effort, confounding comparisons. From 1997-2013 we identified 359 entangled Australian fur seals at Seal Rocks, south-eastern Australia. Most entanglement materials

  19. 7 A GIS Estimation of Soil Loss

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    of the river channel that is causing flooding in some parts of Accra, Ghana. ... Soil loss factors such as rainfall erosivity, soil erodibilty, .... High rainfall intensity will easily splash or remove top soil, and it can also cause mass movement. In USLE erosivity, (R) is empirically estimated as. (Burrough & McDonnell, 1998):.

  20. Projected gains and losses of wildlife habitat from bioenergy-induced landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarr, Nathan M.; Rubino, Matthew J.; Costanza, Jennifer K.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.; Abt, Robert C.

    2016-01-01

    Domestic and foreign renewable energy targets and financial incentives have increased demand for woody biomass and bioenergy in the southeastern United States. This demand is expected to be met through purpose-grown agricultural bioenergy crops, short-rotation tree plantations, thinning and harvest of planted and natural forests, and forest harvest residues. With results from a forest economics model, spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models, and species–habitat models, we projected change in habitat amount for 16 wildlife species caused by meeting a renewable fuel target and expected demand for wood pellets in North Carolina, USA. We projected changes over 40 years under a baseline ‘business-as-usual’ scenario without bioenergy production and five scenarios with unique feedstock portfolios. Bioenergy demand had potential to influence trends in habitat availability for some species in our study area. We found variation in impacts among species, and no scenario was the ‘best’ or ‘worst’ across all species. Our models projected that shrub-associated species would gain habitat under some scenarios because of increases in the amount of regenerating forests on the landscape, while species restricted to mature forests would lose habitat. Some forest species could also lose habitat from the conversion of forests on marginal soils to purpose-grown feedstocks. The conversion of agricultural lands on marginal soils to purpose-grown feedstocks increased habitat losses for one species with strong associations with pasture, which is being lost to urbanization in our study region. Our results indicate that landscape-scale impacts on wildlife habitat will vary among species and depend upon the bioenergy feedstock portfolio. Therefore, decisions about bioenergy and wildlife will likely involve trade-offs among wildlife species, and the choice of focal species is likely to affect the results of landscape-scale assessments. We offer general principals

  1. Improved sampling for airborne surveys to estimate wildlife population parameters in the African Savannah

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khaemba, W.; Stein, A.

    2002-01-01

    Parameter estimates, obtained from airborne surveys of wildlife populations, often have large bias and large standard errors. Sampling error is one of the major causes of this imprecision and the occurrence of many animals in herds violates the common assumptions in traditional sampling designs like

  2. Spatio-temporal patterns of attacks on human and economic losses from wildlife in Chitwan National Park, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamichhane, Babu Ram; Persoon, Gerard A; Leirs, Herwig; Poudel, Shashank; Subedi, Naresh; Pokheral, Chiranjibi Prasad; Bhattarai, Santosh; Thapaliya, Bishnu Prasad; de Iongh, Hans H

    2018-01-01

    Wildlife attacks on humans and economic losses often result in reduced support of local communities for wildlife conservation. Information on spatial and temporal patterns of such losses in the highly affected areas contribute in designing and implementing effective mitigation measures. We analyzed the loss of humans, livestock and property caused by wildlife during 1998 to 2016, using victim family's reports to Chitwan National Park authorities and Buffer Zone User Committees. A total of 4,014 incidents were recorded including attacks on humans, livestock depredation, property damage and crop raiding caused by 12 wildlife species. In total >400,000 US dollar was paid to the victim families as a relief over the whole period. Most of the attacks on humans were caused by rhino, sloth bear, tiger, elephant, wild boar and leopard. A significantly higher number of conflict incidents caused by rhino and elephant were observed during full moon periods. An increase in the wildlife population did not coincide with an equal rise in conflict incidents reported. Underprivileged ethnic communities were attacked by wildlife more frequently than expected. Number of attacks on humans by carnivores and herbivores did not differ significantly. An insignificant decreasing trend of wildlife attacks on humans and livestock was observed with significant variation over the years. Tiger and leopard caused >90% of livestock depredation. Tigers killed both large (cattle and buffalo) and medium sized (goat, sheep, pig) livestock but leopard mostly killed medium sized livestock. Most (87%) of the livestock killing during 2012-2016 occurred within the stall but close (conflict mitigation measures (electric and mesh wire fences) have contributed to keep the conflict incidents in control. Strengthening mitigation measures like construction of electric or mesh wire fences and predator-proof livestock corrals along with educating local communities about wildlife behavior and timely management of

  3. Estimation of fluctuation in restricted energy loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doke, T.; Hayashi, T.; Nagata, K.

    1983-01-01

    Restricted Energy Loss (REL) is defined as an energy loss [(dE/dX)/sub E//sub delta/<ν/] that produced the delta-rays of energies less than some specified energy ν and is often used as a simple measure of track structure. For example, REL is a measure of track formation threshold in plastic track detector and the growth rate of track in chemical etching solution is considered to depend only on REL given along the track. Using a stack of elastic sheets, recently, it became possible to identify isotopes of incident particles. In that case, the limit of mass resolution is determined by fluctuation of REL in the length of etch pit produced along the path of particle. A computer program was developed to calculate the probability distribution for energy deposition in absorber allowing for electron escape. In this calculation, it is assumed that all electrons with energies greater than a certain value epsilon/sub d/ escape. This means that this calculation directly gives the fluctuation of REL. Therefore, we tried to use the computer program to estimate the ultimate mass resolution in plastic detector. In this paper, we show firstly the comparison of ASB's calculation with the experimental results obtained by a gas counter and next the results of estimation of ultimate mass resolution in plastic detectors

  4. Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, J. A.; Caillaud, D.; Scurlock, B. M.; Maichak, E. J.; Edwards, W.H.; Cross, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

  5. Global biodiversity loss: Exaggerated versus realistic estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John C. Briggs

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For the past 50 years, the public has been made to feel guilty about the tragedy of human-caused biodiversity loss due to the extinction of hundreds or thousands of species every year. Numerous articles and books from the scientific and popular press and publicity on the internet have contributed to a propaganda wave about our grievous loss and the beginning of a sixth mass extinction. However, within the past few years, questions have arisen about the validity of the data which led to the doom scenario. Here I show that, for the past 500 years, terrestrial animals (insects and vertebrates have been losing less than two species per year due to human causes. The majority of the extinctions have occurred on oceanic islands with little effect on continental ecology. In the marine environment, losses have also been very low. At the same time, speciation has continued to occur and biodiversity gain by this means may have equaled or even surpassed the losses. While species loss is not, so far, a global conservation problem, ongoing population declines within thousands of species that are at risk on land and in the sea constitute an extinction debt that will be paid unless those species can be rescued.

  6. Estimation of Potential Population Level Effects of Contaminants on Wildlife; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loar, J.M.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this project is to provide DOE with improved methods to assess risks from contaminants to wildlife populations. The current approach for wildlife risk assessment consists of comparison of contaminant exposure estimates for individual animals to literature-derived toxicity test endpoints. These test endpoints are assumed to estimate thresholds for population-level effects. Moreover, species sensitivities to contaminants is one of several criteria to be considered when selecting assessment endpoints (EPA 1997 and 1998), yet data on the sensitivities of many birds and mammals are lacking. The uncertainties associated with this approach are considerable. First, because toxicity data are not available for most potential wildlife endpoint species, extrapolation of toxicity data from test species to the species of interest is required. There is no consensus on the most appropriate extrapolation method. Second, toxicity data are represented as statistical measures (e.g., NOAEL s or LOAELs) that provide no information on the nature or magnitude of effects. The level of effect is an artifact of the replication and dosing regime employed, and does not indicate how effects might increase with increasing exposure. Consequently, slight exceedance of a LOAEL is not distinguished from greatly exceeding it. Third, the relationship of toxic effects on individuals to effects on populations is poorly estimated by existing methods. It is assumed that if the exposure of individuals exceeds levels associated with impaired reproduction, then population level effects are likely. Uncertainty associated with this assumption is large because depending on the reproductive strategy of a given species, comparable levels of reproductive impairment may result in dramatically different population-level responses. This project included several tasks to address these problems: (1) investigation of the validity of the current allometric scaling approach for interspecies extrapolation

  7. Estimating economic losses from earthquakes using an empirical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2013-01-01

    We extended the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) empirical fatality estimation methodology proposed by Jaiswal et al. (2009) to rapidly estimate economic losses after significant earthquakes worldwide. The requisite model inputs are shaking intensity estimates made by the ShakeMap system, the spatial distribution of population available from the LandScan database, modern and historic country or sub-country population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and economic loss data from Munich Re's historical earthquakes catalog. We developed a strategy to approximately scale GDP-based economic exposure for historical and recent earthquakes in order to estimate economic losses. The process consists of using a country-specific multiplicative factor to accommodate the disparity between economic exposure and the annual per capita GDP, and it has proven successful in hindcast-ing past losses. Although loss, population, shaking estimates, and economic data used in the calibration process are uncertain, approximate ranges of losses can be estimated for the primary purpose of gauging the overall scope of the disaster and coordinating response. The proposed methodology is both indirect and approximate and is thus best suited as a rapid loss estimation model for applications like the PAGER system.

  8. Real Time Seismic Loss Estimation in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goretti, A.; Sabetta, F.

    2009-04-01

    By more than 15 years the Seismic Risk Office is able to perform a real-time evaluation of the earthquake potential loss in any part of Italy. Once the epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake are made available by the National Institute for Geophysiscs and Volca-nology, the model, based on the Italian Geographic Information Sys-tems, is able to evaluate the extent of the damaged area and the consequences on the built environment. In recent years the model has been significantly improved with new methodologies able to conditioning the uncertainties using observa-tions coming from the fields during the first days after the event. However it is reputed that the main challenges in loss analysis are related to the input data, more than to methodologies. Unlike the ur-ban scenario, where the missing data can be collected with enough accuracy, the country-wise analysis requires the use of existing data bases, often collected for other purposed than seismic scenario evaluation, and hence in some way lacking of completeness and homogeneity. Soil properties, building inventory and population dis-tribution are the main input data that are to be known in any site of the whole Italian territory. To this end the National Census on Popu-lation and Dwellings has provided information on the residential building types and the population that lives in that building types. The critical buildings, such as Hospital, Fire Brigade Stations, Schools, are not included in the inventory, since the national plan for seismic risk assessment of critical buildings is still under way. The choice of a proper soil motion parameter, its attenuation with distance and the building type fragility are important ingredients of the model as well. The presentation will focus on the above mentioned issues, highlight-ing the different data sets used and their accuracy, and comparing the model, input data and results when geographical areas with dif-ferent extent are considered: from the urban scenarios

  9. Estimation of Streamflow Characteristics for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Northeastern Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sando, Steven K.; Morgan, Timothy J.; Dutton, DeAnn M.; McCarthy, Peter M.

    2009-01-01

    Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) encompasses about 1.1 million acres (including Fort Peck Reservoir on the Missouri River) in northeastern Montana. To ensure that sufficient streamflow remains in the tributary streams to maintain the riparian corridors, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is negotiating water-rights issues with the Reserved Water Rights Compact Commission of Montana. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a study to gage, for a short period, selected streams that cross CMR, and analyze data to estimate long-term streamflow characteristics for CMR. The long-term streamflow characteristics of primary interest include the monthly and annual 90-, 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows and mean streamflows (Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, respectively), and the 1.5-, 2-, and 2.33- year peak flows (PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33, respectively). The Regional Adjustment Relationship (RAR) was investigated for estimating the monthly and annual Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, and the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33 for the short-term CMR gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as CMR stations). The RAR was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the long-term Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM on a monthly basis for the months of March through June, and also on an annual basis. For the months of September through January, the RAR regression equations did not provide acceptable results for any long-term streamflow characteristic. For the month of February, the RAR regression equations provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50 and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90, Q.80, and Q.20. For the months of July and August, the RAR provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50, Q.20, and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90 and Q.80. Estimation coefficients were developed for estimating the long-term streamflow characteristics for which the RAR did not provide

  10. Changing Patterns of Emerging Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife, Domestic Animals, and Humans Linked to Biodiversity Loss and Globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, A Alonso

    2017-12-15

    The fundamental human threats to biodiversity including habitat destruction, globalization, and species loss have led to ecosystem disruptions altering infectious disease transmission patterns, the accumulation of toxic pollutants, and the invasion of alien species and pathogens. To top it all, the profound role of climate change on many ecological processes has affected the inability of many species to adapt to these relatively rapid changes. This special issue, "Zoonotic Disease Ecology: Effects on Humans, Domestic Animals and Wildlife," explores the complex interactions of emerging infectious diseases across taxa linked to many of these anthropogenic and environmental drivers. Selected emerging zoonoses including RNA viruses, Rift Valley fever, trypanosomiasis, Hanta virus infection, and other vector-borne diseases are discussed in detail. Also, coprophagous beetles are proposed as important vectors in the transmission and maintenance of infectious pathogens. An overview of the impacts of climate change in emerging disease ecology within the context of Brazil as a case study is provided. Animal Care and Use Committee requirements were investigated, concluding that ecology journals have low rates of explicit statements regarding the welfare and wellbing of wildlife during experimental studies. Most of the solutions to protect biodiversity and predicting and preventing the next epidemic in humans originating from wildlife are oriented towards the developed world and are less useful for biodiverse, low-income economies. We need the development of regional policies to address these issues at the local level.

  11. Innovative Techniques for Estimating Illegal Activities in a Human-Wildlife-Management Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Paul; St. John, Freya A. V.; Khan, Saira; Petroczi, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Effective management of biological resources is contingent upon stakeholder compliance with rules. With respect to disease management, partial compliance can undermine attempts to control diseases within human and wildlife populations. Estimating non-compliance is notoriously problematic as rule-breakers may be disinclined to admit to transgressions. However, reliable estimates of rule-breaking are critical to policy design. The European badger (Meles meles) is considered an important vector in the transmission and maintenance of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle herds. Land managers in high bTB prevalence areas of the UK can cull badgers under license. However, badgers are also known to be killed illegally. The extent of illegal badger killing is currently unknown. Herein we report on the application of three innovative techniques (Randomized Response Technique (RRT); projective questioning (PQ); brief implicit association test (BIAT)) for investigating illegal badger killing by livestock farmers across Wales. RRT estimated that 10.4% of farmers killed badgers in the 12 months preceding the study. Projective questioning responses and implicit associations relate to farmers' badger killing behavior reported via RRT. Studies evaluating the efficacy of mammal vector culling and vaccination programs should incorporate estimates of non-compliance. Mitigating the conflict concerning badgers as a vector of bTB requires cross-disciplinary scientific research, departure from deep-rooted positions, and the political will to implement evidence-based management. PMID:23341973

  12. Innovative techniques for estimating illegal activities in a human-wildlife-management conflict.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Cross

    Full Text Available Effective management of biological resources is contingent upon stakeholder compliance with rules. With respect to disease management, partial compliance can undermine attempts to control diseases within human and wildlife populations. Estimating non-compliance is notoriously problematic as rule-breakers may be disinclined to admit to transgressions. However, reliable estimates of rule-breaking are critical to policy design. The European badger (Meles meles is considered an important vector in the transmission and maintenance of bovine tuberculosis (bTB in cattle herds. Land managers in high bTB prevalence areas of the UK can cull badgers under license. However, badgers are also known to be killed illegally. The extent of illegal badger killing is currently unknown. Herein we report on the application of three innovative techniques (Randomized Response Technique (RRT; projective questioning (PQ; brief implicit association test (BIAT for investigating illegal badger killing by livestock farmers across Wales. RRT estimated that 10.4% of farmers killed badgers in the 12 months preceding the study. Projective questioning responses and implicit associations relate to farmers' badger killing behavior reported via RRT. Studies evaluating the efficacy of mammal vector culling and vaccination programs should incorporate estimates of non-compliance. Mitigating the conflict concerning badgers as a vector of bTB requires cross-disciplinary scientific research, departure from deep-rooted positions, and the political will to implement evidence-based management.

  13. Innovative techniques for estimating illegal activities in a human-wildlife-management conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Paul; St John, Freya A V; Khan, Saira; Petroczi, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Effective management of biological resources is contingent upon stakeholder compliance with rules. With respect to disease management, partial compliance can undermine attempts to control diseases within human and wildlife populations. Estimating non-compliance is notoriously problematic as rule-breakers may be disinclined to admit to transgressions. However, reliable estimates of rule-breaking are critical to policy design. The European badger (Meles meles) is considered an important vector in the transmission and maintenance of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle herds. Land managers in high bTB prevalence areas of the UK can cull badgers under license. However, badgers are also known to be killed illegally. The extent of illegal badger killing is currently unknown. Herein we report on the application of three innovative techniques (Randomized Response Technique (RRT); projective questioning (PQ); brief implicit association test (BIAT)) for investigating illegal badger killing by livestock farmers across Wales. RRT estimated that 10.4% of farmers killed badgers in the 12 months preceding the study. Projective questioning responses and implicit associations relate to farmers' badger killing behavior reported via RRT. Studies evaluating the efficacy of mammal vector culling and vaccination programs should incorporate estimates of non-compliance. Mitigating the conflict concerning badgers as a vector of bTB requires cross-disciplinary scientific research, departure from deep-rooted positions, and the political will to implement evidence-based management.

  14. prediction of path loss estimate for a frequency modulation (fm)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Orinya

    Nigeria, FM station, Makurdi which is normally a major component in the ... and can be used to estimate path losses of FM signals in Benue State of ... limited in equipment to measure all the .... path loss while MATLAB R2007b software was.

  15. Measuring, calculating and estimating PEP's parasitic mode loss parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weaver, J.N.

    1981-01-01

    This note discusses various ways the parasitic mode losses from a bunched beam to a vacuum chamber can be measured, calculated or estimated. A listing of the parameter, k, for the various PEP ring components is included. A number of formulas for calculating multiple and single pass losses are discussed and evaluated for several cases. 25 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  16. Movement-based estimation and visualization of space use in 3D for wildlife ecology and conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff A Tracey

    Full Text Available Advances in digital biotelemetry technologies are enabling the collection of bigger and more accurate data on the movements of free-ranging wildlife in space and time. Although many biotelemetry devices record 3D location data with x, y, and z coordinates from tracked animals, the third z coordinate is typically not integrated into studies of animal spatial use. Disregarding the vertical component may seriously limit understanding of animal habitat use and niche separation. We present novel movement-based kernel density estimators and computer visualization tools for generating and exploring 3D home ranges based on location data. We use case studies of three wildlife species--giant panda, dugong, and California condor--to demonstrate the ecological insights and conservation management benefits provided by 3D home range estimation and visualization for terrestrial, aquatic, and avian wildlife research.

  17. Movement-based estimation and visualization of space use in 3D for wildlife ecology and conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracey, Jeff A.; Sheppard, James; Zhu, Jun; Wei, Fu-Wen; Swaisgood, Ronald R.; Fisher, Robert N.

    2014-01-01

    Advances in digital biotelemetry technologies are enabling the collection of bigger and more accurate data on the movements of free-ranging wildlife in space and time. Although many biotelemetry devices record 3D location data with x, y, and z coordinates from tracked animals, the third z coordinate is typically not integrated into studies of animal spatial use. Disregarding the vertical component may seriously limit understanding of animal habitat use and niche separation. We present novel movement-based kernel density estimators and computer visualization tools for generating and exploring 3D home ranges based on location data. We use case studies of three wildlife species – giant panda, dugong, and California condor – to demonstrate the ecological insights and conservation management benefits provided by 3D home range estimation and visualization for terrestrial, aquatic, and avian wildlife research.

  18. Movement-based estimation and visualization of space use in 3D for wildlife ecology and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracey, Jeff A; Sheppard, James; Zhu, Jun; Wei, Fuwen; Swaisgood, Ronald R; Fisher, Robert N

    2014-01-01

    Advances in digital biotelemetry technologies are enabling the collection of bigger and more accurate data on the movements of free-ranging wildlife in space and time. Although many biotelemetry devices record 3D location data with x, y, and z coordinates from tracked animals, the third z coordinate is typically not integrated into studies of animal spatial use. Disregarding the vertical component may seriously limit understanding of animal habitat use and niche separation. We present novel movement-based kernel density estimators and computer visualization tools for generating and exploring 3D home ranges based on location data. We use case studies of three wildlife species--giant panda, dugong, and California condor--to demonstrate the ecological insights and conservation management benefits provided by 3D home range estimation and visualization for terrestrial, aquatic, and avian wildlife research.

  19. INTERSPECIES CORRELATION ESTIMATION (ICE) FOR ACUTE TOXICITY TO AQUATIC ORGANISMS AND WILDLIFE. II. USER MANUAL AND SOFTWARE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asfaw, Amha, Mark R. Ellersieck and Foster L. Mayer. 2003. Interspecies Correlation Estimations (ICE) for Acute Toxicity to Aquatic Organisms and Wildlife. II. User Manual and Software. EPA/600/R-03/106. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effe...

  20. Efficient estimates of cochlear hearing loss parameters in individual listeners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fereczkowski, Michal; Jepsen, Morten Løve; Dau, Torsten

    2013-01-01

    It has been suggested that the level corresponding to the knee-point of the basilar membrane (BM) input/output (I/O) function can be used to estimate the amount of inner- and outer hair-cell loss (IHL, OHL) in listeners with a moderate cochlear hearing impairment Plack et al. (2004). According...... to Jepsen and Dau (2011) IHL + OHL = HLT [dB], where HLT stands for total hearing loss. Hence having estimates of the total hearing loss and OHC loss, one can estimate the IHL. In the present study, results from forward masking experiments based on temporal masking curves (TMC; Nelson et al., 2001...... estimates of the knee-point level. Further, it is explored whether it is possible to estimate the compression ratio using only on-frequency TMCs. 10 normal-hearing and 10 hearing-impaired listeners (with mild-to-moderate sensorineural hearing loss) were tested at 1, 2 and 4 kHz. The results showed...

  1. Estimating annualized earthquake losses for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope

    2015-01-01

    We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.

  2. Improved ice loss estimate of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Wahr, J.

    2013-01-01

    We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change...... estimate, we supplement the ICESat data with altimeter surveys from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper from 2002 to 2010 and NASA's Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor from 2010. The Airborne data are mainly concentrated along the ice margin and thus have a significant impact on the estimate of the volume...... change. Our results show that adding Airborne Topographic Mapper and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor data to the ICESat data increases the catchment-wide estimate of ice volume loss by 11%, mainly due to an improved volume loss estimate along the ice sheet margin. Furthermore, our results show...

  3. Harmonizing methods for wildlife abundance estimation and pathogen detection in Europe-a questionnaire survey on three selected host-pathogen combinations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schulz, Jana; Ryser-Degiorgis, Marie-Pierre; Kuiken, Thijs

    2017-01-01

    Background: The need for wildlife health surveillance as part of disease control in wildlife, domestic animals and humans on the global level is widely recognized. However, the objectives, methods and intensity of existing wildlife health surveillance programs vary greatly among European countries......, resulting in a patchwork of data that are difficult to merge and compare. This survey aimed at evaluating the need and potential for data harmonization in wildlife health in Europe. The specific objective was to collect information on methods currently used to estimate host abundance and pathogen prevalence...... estimation, there is an urgent need to develop tools for the routine collection of host abundance data in a harmonized way. Wildlife health experts are encouraged to apply the harmonized APHAEA protocols in epidemiological studies in wildlife and to increase cooperation....

  4. Loss of life estimation-Review, developments and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Maaskant, B.; Kolen, B.; Needham, J. T Jason

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the

  5. [New non-volumetric method for estimating peroperative blood loss].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tachoires, D; Mourot, F; Gillardeau, G

    1979-01-01

    The authors have developed a new method for the estimation of peroperative blood loss by measurement of the haematocrit of a fluid obtained by diluting the blood from swabs in a known volume of isotonic saline solution. This value, referred to a monogram, may be used to assess the volume of blood impregnating the compresses, in relation to the pre-operative or present haematocrit of the patient, by direct reading. The precision of the method is discussed. The results obtained justified its routine application in surgery in children, patients with cardiac failure and in all cases requiring precise compensation of per-operative blood loss.

  6. Loss and fragmentation of habitat for pastoral people and wildlife in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Little of the current focus on landscape fragmentation has focused on rangelands or pastoral lands. This paper investigates the existing evidence for causes and processes of fragmentation in pastoral lands and its effects of landscapes and peoples. More conceptual work is needed on the definition of loss and fragmentation ...

  7. Energetic Particle Loss Estimates in W7-X

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazerson, Samuel; Akaslompolo, Simppa; Drevlak, Micheal; Wolf, Robert; Darrow, Douglass; Gates, David; W7-X Team

    2017-10-01

    The collisionless loss of high energy H+ and D+ ions in the W7-X device are examined using the BEAMS3D code. Simulations of collisionless losses are performed for a large ensemble of particles distributed over various flux surfaces. A clear loss cone of particles is present in the distribution for all particles. These simulations are compared against slowing down simulations in which electron impact, ion impact, and pitch angle scattering are considered. Full device simulations allow tracing of particle trajectories to the first wall components. These simulations provide estimates for placement of a novel set of energetic particle detectors. Recent performance upgrades to the code are allowing simulations with > 1000 processors providing high fidelity simulations. Speedup and future works are discussed. DE-AC02-09CH11466.

  8. Dose estimates in a loss of lead shielding truck accident.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, Matthew L.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science & Technology Albuquerque, NM)

    2009-08-01

    The radiological transportation risk & consequence program, RADTRAN, has recently added an updated loss of lead shielding (LOS) model to it most recent version, RADTRAN 6.0. The LOS model was used to determine dose estimates to first-responders during a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident. Results varied according to the following: type of accident scenario, percent of lead slump, distance to shipment, and time spent in the area. This document presents a method of creating dose estimates for first-responders using RADTRAN with potential accident scenarios. This may be of particular interest in the event of high speed accidents or fires involving cask punctures.

  9. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  10. Comparison of physically based catchment models for estimating Phosphorus losses

    OpenAIRE

    Nasr, Ahmed Elssidig; Bruen, Michael

    2003-01-01

    As part of a large EPA-funded research project, coordinated by TEAGASC, the Centre for Water Resources Research at UCD reviewed the available distributed physically based catchment models with a potential for use in estimating phosphorous losses for use in implementing the Water Framework Directive. Three models, representative of different levels of approach and complexity, were chosen and were implemented for a number of Irish catchments. This paper reports on (i) the lessons and experience...

  11. Loss of life estimation – Review, developments and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonkman S.N. (Bas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the modelling approaches, input and output types and applications are discussed. Challenges to the field are summarized, including empirical data collection for validation and benchmarking and comparison studies.

  12. Estimation of organic carbon loss potential in north of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahriari, A.; Khormali, F.; Kehl, M.; Welp, G.; Scholz, Ch.

    2009-04-01

    The development of sustainable agricultural systems requires techniques that accurately monitor changes in the amount, nature and breakdown rate of soil organic matter and can compare the rate of breakdown of different plant or animal residues under different management systems. In this research, the study area includes the southern alluvial and piedmont plains of Gorgan River extended from east to west direction in Golestan province, Iran. Samples from 10 soil series and were collected from cultivation depth (0-30 cm). Permanganate-oxidizable carbon (POC) an index of soil labile carbon, was used to show soil potential loss of organic carbon. In this index shows the maximum loss of OC in a given soil. Maximum loss of OC for each soil series was estimated through POC and bulk density (BD). The potential loss of OC were estimated between 1253263 and 2410813 g/ha Carbon. Stable organic constituents in the soil include humic substances and other organic macromolecules that are intrinsically resistant against microbial attack, or that are physically protected by adsorption on mineral surfaces or entrapment within clay and mineral aggregates. However, the (Clay + Silt)/OC ratio had a negative significant (p < 0.001) correlation with POC content, confirming the preserving effect of fine particle.

  13. Simulation-based seismic loss estimation of seaport transportation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ung Jin Na; Shinozuka, Masanobu

    2009-01-01

    Seaport transportation system is one of the major lifeline systems in modern society and its reliable operation is crucial for the well-being of the public. However, past experiences showed that earthquake damage to port components can severely disrupt terminal operation, and thus negatively impact on the regional economy. The main purpose of this study is to provide a methodology for estimating the effects of the earthquake on the performance of the operation system of a container terminal in seaports. To evaluate the economic loss of damaged system, an analytical framework is developed by integrating simulation models for terminal operation and fragility curves of port components in the context of seismic risk analysis. For this purpose, computerized simulation model is developed and verified with actual terminal operation records. Based on the analytical procedure to assess the seismic performance of the terminal, system fragility curves are also developed. This simulation-based loss estimation methodology can be used not only for estimating the seismically induced revenue loss but also serve as a decision-making tool to select specific seismic retrofit technique on the basis of benefit-cost analysis

  14. Influence of Flow Velocity on Tsunami Loss Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Song

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Inundation depth is commonly used as an intensity measure in tsunami fragility analysis. However, inundation depth cannot be taken as the sole representation of tsunami impact on structures, especially when structural damage is caused by hydrodynamic and debris impact forces that are mainly determined by flow velocity. To reflect the influence of flow velocity in addition to inundation depth in tsunami risk assessment, a tsunami loss estimation method that adopts both inundation depth and flow velocity (i.e., bivariate intensity measures in evaluating tsunami damage is developed. To consider a wide range of possible tsunami inundation scenarios, Monte Carlo-based tsunami simulations are performed using stochastic earthquake slip distributions derived from a spectral synthesis method and probabilistic scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters. By focusing on Sendai (plain coast and Onagawa (ria coast in the Miyagi Prefecture of Japan in a case study, the stochastic tsunami loss is evaluated by total economic loss and its spatial distribution at different scales. The results indicate that tsunami loss prediction is highly sensitive to modelling resolution and inclusion of flow velocity for buildings located less than 1 km from the sea for Sendai and Onagawa of Miyagi Prefecture.

  15. Estimating soil erosion losses in Korea with fallout cesium-137

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menzel, R.G.; Pilkyun Jung; Kwanshig Ryu; Kitai Um

    1987-01-01

    The contents of fallout 137 Cs in soil profiles were used to estimate erosion losses from steeply sloping croplands in Korea. Seven undisturbed sites with no apparent erosion or deposition, and 15 cropland sites were examined to a depth of 30 cm. The cropland sites had been cultivated for periods ranging from 5 to more than 80 y (median 10 y), and their slopes ranged from 5 to 26% (median 13%). All except one of the cropland sites contained less 137 Cs than undisturbed sites in the same area. Three cropland sites contained essentially no 137 Cs, indicating erosion of the entire cultivated layer of soil in from 6 to 10 years. Other cropland sites, particularly those with sandy texture, showed little loss of 137 Cs over longer periods of cultivation. Cesium-137 measurements may be useful in identifying site characteristics that reduce the vulnerability of sloping soils to erosion damage. (author)

  16. An estimation of the bleaching losses of the iodine laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witte, K.J.

    1976-06-01

    Because of the variable transparency of the C 3 F 7 I the pump light energy absorbed in the oscillator mode is larger than the pump light energy absorbed in the amplifier mode. The estimation of the difference - here called bleaching losses and important in case of final amplifiers of high energy lasers - is studied in this investigation. It is shown that the ratio of these two energies is equivalent to the ratio of the optical energy stored in the amplifier mode and of the energy released in the oscillator mode. (orig.) [de

  17. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  18. Minimum variance linear unbiased estimators of loss and inventory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, K.B.

    1977-01-01

    The article illustrates a number of approaches for estimating the material balance inventory and a constant loss amount from the accountability data from a sequence of accountability periods. The approaches all lead to linear estimates that have minimum variance. Techniques are shown whereby ordinary least squares, weighted least squares and generalized least squares computer programs can be used. Two approaches are recursive in nature and lend themselves to small specialized computer programs. Another approach is developed that is easy to program; could be used with a desk calculator and can be used in a recursive way from accountability period to accountability period. Some previous results are also reviewed that are very similar in approach to the present ones and vary only in the way net throughput measurements are statistically modeled. 5 refs

  19. Estimating conditional quantiles with the help of the pinball loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinwart, Ingo

    2008-01-01

    Using the so-called pinball loss for estimating conditional quantiles is a well-known tool in both statistics and machine learning. So far, however, only little work has been done to quantify the efficiency of this tool for non-parametric (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. The goal of this work is to fill this gap by establishing inequalities that describe how close approximate pinball risk minimizers are to the corresponding conditional quantile. These inequalities, which hold under mild assumptions on the data-generating distribution, are then used to establish so-called variance bounds which recently turned out to play an important role in the statistical analysis of (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. To illustrate the use of the established inequalities, we then use them to establish an oracle inequality for support vector machines that use the pinball loss. Here, it turns out that we obtain learning rates which are optimal in a min-max sense under some standard assumptions on the regularity of the conditional quantile function

  20. Method for estimating off-axis pulse tube losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, T.; Mulcahey, T. I.; Taylor, R. P.; Spoor, P. S.; Conrad, T. J.; Ghiaasiaan, S. M.

    2017-12-01

    Some Stirling-type pulse tube cryocoolers (PTCs) exhibit sensitivity to gravitational orientation and often exhibit significant cooling performance losses unless situated with the cold end pointing downward. Prior investigations have indicated that some coolers exhibit sensitivity while others do not; however, a reliable method of predicting the level of sensitivity during the design process has not been developed. In this study, we present a relationship that estimates an upper limit to gravitationally induced losses as a function of the dimensionless pulse tube convection number (NPTC) that can be used to ensure that a PTC would remain functional at adverse static tilt conditions. The empirical relationship is based on experimental data as well as experimentally validated 3-D computational fluid dynamics simulations that examine the effects of frequency, mass flow rate, pressure ratio, mass-pressure phase difference, hot and cold end temperatures, and static tilt angle. The validation of the computational model is based on experimental data collected from six commercial pulse tube cryocoolers. The simulation results are obtained from component-level models of the pulse tube and heat exchangers. Parameter ranges covered in component level simulations are 0-180° for tilt angle, 4-8 for length to diameter ratios, 4-80 K cold tip temperatures, -30° to +30° for mass flow to pressure phase angles, and 25-60 Hz operating frequencies. Simulation results and experimental data are aggregated to yield the relationship between inclined PTC performance and pulse tube convection numbers. The results indicate that the pulse tube convection number can be used as an order of magnitude indicator of the orientation sensitivity, but CFD simulations should be used to calculate the change in energy flow more accurately.

  1. DNA-based hair sampling to identify road crossings and estimate population size of black bears in Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia

    OpenAIRE

    Wills, Johnny

    2008-01-01

    The planned widening of U.S. Highway 17 along the east boundary of Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge (GDSNWR) and a lack of knowledge about the refugeâ s bear population created the need to identify potential sites for wildlife crossings and estimate the size of the refugeâ s bear population. I collected black bear hair in order to collect DNA samples to estimate population size, density, and sex ratio, and determine road crossing locations for black bears (Ursus americanus) in G...

  2. An improved iron loss estimation for permanent magnet brushless machines

    CERN Document Server

    Fang, D

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents an improved approach for predicting iron losses in permanent magnet brushless machines. The new approach is based on the fundamental concept that eddy current losses are proportional to the square of the time rate of change of flux density. Expressions are derived for predicting hysteresis and eddy current losses in the stator teeth and yoke. The so-called anomalous or excess losses, caused by the induced eddy current concentration around moving magnetic domain walls and neglected in the conventional core loss calculation, are also included in the proposed approach. In addition, the model is also capable of accounting for the stator skewing, if present. The core losses obtained from the proposed approach are compared with those measured on an existing PM motor at several operating speeds, showing very good agreement. (14 refs).

  3. Ultrafast evolution and loss of CRISPRs following a host shift in a novel wildlife pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel F Delaney

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Measureable rates of genome evolution are well documented in human pathogens but are less well understood in bacterial pathogens in the wild, particularly during and after host switches. Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG is a pathogenic bacterium that has evolved predominantly in poultry and recently jumped to wild house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus, a common North American songbird. For the first time we characterize the genome and measure rates of genome evolution in House Finch isolates of MG, as well as in poultry outgroups. Using whole-genome sequences of 12 House Finch isolates across a 13-year serial sample and an additional four newly sequenced poultry strains, we estimate a nucleotide diversity in House Finch isolates of only ∼2% of ancestral poultry strains and a nucleotide substitution rate of 0.8-1.2×10(-5 per site per year both in poultry and in House Finches, an exceptionally fast rate rivaling some of the highest estimates reported thus far for bacteria. We also found high diversity and complete turnover of CRISPR arrays in poultry MG strains prior to the switch to the House Finch host, but after the invasion of House Finches there is progressive loss of CRISPR repeat diversity, and recruitment of novel CRISPR repeats ceases. Recent (2007 House Finch MG strains retain only ∼50% of the CRISPR repertoire founding (1994-95 strains and have lost the CRISPR-associated genes required for CRISPR function. Our results suggest that genome evolution in bacterial pathogens of wild birds can be extremely rapid and in this case is accompanied by apparent functional loss of CRISPRs.

  4. Estimates of Ionospheric Transport and Ion Loss at Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cravens, T. E.; Hamil, O.; Houston, S.; Bougher, S.; Ma, Y.; Brain, D.; Ledvina, S.

    2017-10-01

    Ion loss from the topside ionosphere of Mars associated with the solar wind interaction makes an important contribution to the loss of volatiles from this planet. Data from NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution mission combined with theoretical modeling are now helping us to understand the processes involved in the ion loss process. Given the complexity of the solar wind interaction, motivation exists for considering a simple approach to this problem and for understanding how the loss rates might scale with solar wind conditions and solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance. This paper reviews the processes involved in the ionospheric dynamics. Simple analytical and semiempirical expressions for ion flow speeds and ion loss are derived. In agreement with more sophisticated models and with purely empirical studies, it is found that the oxygen loss rate from ion transport is about 5% (i.e., global O ion loss rate of Qion ≈ 4 × 1024 s-1) of the total oxygen loss rate. The ion loss is found to approximately scale as the square root of the solar ionizing photon flux and also as the square root of the solar wind dynamic pressure. Typical ion flow speeds are found to be about 1 km/s in the topside ionosphere near an altitude of 300 km on the dayside. Not surprisingly, the plasma flow speed is found to increase with altitude due to the decreasing ion-neutral collision frequency.

  5. Influence of Sampling Effort on the Estimated Richness of Road-Killed Vertebrate Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bager, Alex; da Rosa, Clarissa A.

    2011-05-01

    Road-killed mammals, birds, and reptiles were collected weekly from highways in southern Brazil in 2002 and 2005. The objective was to assess variation in estimates of road-kill impacts on species richness produced by different sampling efforts, and to provide information to aid in the experimental design of future sampling. Richness observed in weekly samples was compared with sampling for different periods. In each period, the list of road-killed species was evaluated based on estimates the community structure derived from weekly samplings, and by the presence of the ten species most subject to road mortality, and also of threatened species. Weekly samples were sufficient only for reptiles and mammals, considered separately. Richness estimated from the biweekly samples was equal to that found in the weekly samples, and gave satisfactory results for sampling the most abundant and threatened species. The ten most affected species showed constant road-mortality rates, independent of sampling interval, and also maintained their dominance structure. Birds required greater sampling effort. When the composition of road-killed species varies seasonally, it is necessary to take biweekly samples for a minimum of one year. Weekly or more-frequent sampling for periods longer than two years is necessary to provide a reliable estimate of total species richness.

  6. Estimation of Transformer Parameters and Loss Analysis for High Voltage Capacitor Charging Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thummala, Prasanth; Schneider, Henrik; Ouyang, Ziwei

    2013-01-01

    In a bi-directional DC-DC converter for capacitive charging application, the losses associated with the transformer makes it a critical component. In order to calculate the transformer losses, its parameters such as AC resistance, leakage inductance and self capacitance of the high voltage (HV......) winding has to be estimated accurately. This paper analyzes the following losses of bi-directional flyback converter namely switching loss, conduction loss, gate drive loss, transformer core loss, and snubber loss, etc. Iterative analysis of transformer parameters viz., AC resistance, leakage inductance...

  7. Estimating Sustainable Live-Coral Harvest at Kamiali Wildlife Management Area, Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longenecker, Ken; Bolick, Holly; Langston, Ross

    2015-01-01

    Live coral is harvested throughout the Indo-West Pacific to make lime, used in the consumption of the world's fourth-most consumed drug, betel nut. Coral harvesting is an environmental concern; however, because lime-making is one of the few sources of income in some areas of Papua New Guinea (PNG), the practice is unlikely to stop. To better manage coral harvest, we used standard fishery-yield methods to generate sustainable-harvest guidelines for corymbose Acropora species found on the reef flat and crest at Lababia, PNG. We constructed a yield curve (weight-specific net annual-dry-weight production) by: 1) describing the allometric relationship between colony size and dry weight, and using that relationship to estimate the dry weight of Acropora colonies in situ; 2) estimating annual growth of Acropora colonies by estimating in situ, and describing the relationship between, colony dry weight at the beginning and end of one year; and 3) conducting belt-transect surveys to describe weight-frequencies and ultimately to predict annual weight change per square meter for each weight class. Reef habitat covers a total 2,467,550 m2 at Lababia and produces an estimated 248,397 kg/y (dry weight) of corymbose Acropora, of which 203,897 kg is produced on the reef flat/crest. We conservatively estimate that 30,706.6 kg of whole, dry, corymbose, Acropora can be sustainably harvested from the reef flat/crest habitat each year provided each culled colony weighs at least 1805 g when dry (or is at least 46 cm along its major axis). Artisanal lime-makers convert 24.8% of whole-colony weight into marketable lime, thus we estimate 7615.2 g of lime can be sustainably produced annually from corymbose Acropora. This value incorporates several safety margins, and should lead to proper management of live coral harvest. Importantly, the guideline recognizes village rights to exploit its marine resources, is consistent with village needs for income, and balances an equally strong village

  8. Estimating Sustainable Live-Coral Harvest at Kamiali Wildlife Management Area, Papua New Guinea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Longenecker

    Full Text Available Live coral is harvested throughout the Indo-West Pacific to make lime, used in the consumption of the world's fourth-most consumed drug, betel nut. Coral harvesting is an environmental concern; however, because lime-making is one of the few sources of income in some areas of Papua New Guinea (PNG, the practice is unlikely to stop. To better manage coral harvest, we used standard fishery-yield methods to generate sustainable-harvest guidelines for corymbose Acropora species found on the reef flat and crest at Lababia, PNG. We constructed a yield curve (weight-specific net annual-dry-weight production by: 1 describing the allometric relationship between colony size and dry weight, and using that relationship to estimate the dry weight of Acropora colonies in situ; 2 estimating annual growth of Acropora colonies by estimating in situ, and describing the relationship between, colony dry weight at the beginning and end of one year; and 3 conducting belt-transect surveys to describe weight-frequencies and ultimately to predict annual weight change per square meter for each weight class. Reef habitat covers a total 2,467,550 m2 at Lababia and produces an estimated 248,397 kg/y (dry weight of corymbose Acropora, of which 203,897 kg is produced on the reef flat/crest. We conservatively estimate that 30,706.6 kg of whole, dry, corymbose, Acropora can be sustainably harvested from the reef flat/crest habitat each year provided each culled colony weighs at least 1805 g when dry (or is at least 46 cm along its major axis. Artisanal lime-makers convert 24.8% of whole-colony weight into marketable lime, thus we estimate 7615.2 g of lime can be sustainably produced annually from corymbose Acropora. This value incorporates several safety margins, and should lead to proper management of live coral harvest. Importantly, the guideline recognizes village rights to exploit its marine resources, is consistent with village needs for income, and balances an equally

  9. Efficient 3D movement-based kernel density estimator and application to wildlife ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracey-PR, Jeff; Sheppard, James K.; Lockwood, Glenn K.; Chourasia, Amit; Tatineni, Mahidhar; Fisher, Robert N.; Sinkovits, Robert S.

    2014-01-01

    We describe an efficient implementation of a 3D movement-based kernel density estimator for determining animal space use from discrete GPS measurements. This new method provides more accurate results, particularly for species that make large excursions in the vertical dimension. The downside of this approach is that it is much more computationally expensive than simpler, lower-dimensional models. Through a combination of code restructuring, parallelization and performance optimization, we were able to reduce the time to solution by up to a factor of 1000x, thereby greatly improving the applicability of the method.

  10. Estimating head and frictional losses through pipe fittings in building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    By extending pipe length by equal increments, with corresponding increments in number of sanitary appliances and total water flow rates to a water distribution system of a building, fractions of the total frictional loss throu-gh pipe fittings for varying work complexities were obtained. The fractions varied from 0.342 to 0.377 as ...

  11. Economic valuation of subsistence harvest of wildlife in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Christopher D; Bonds, Matthew H; Brashares, Justin S; Rasolofoniaina, B J Rodolph; Kremen, Claire

    2014-02-01

    Wildlife consumption can be viewed as an ecosystem provisioning service (the production of a material good through ecological functioning) because of wildlife's ability to persist under sustainable levels of harvest. We used the case of wildlife harvest and consumption in northeastern Madagascar to identify the distribution of these services to local households and communities to further our understanding of local reliance on natural resources. We inferred these benefits from demand curves built with data on wildlife sales transactions. On average, the value of wildlife provisioning represented 57% of annual household cash income in local communities from the Makira Natural Park and Masoala National Park, and harvested areas produced an economic return of U.S.$0.42 ha(-1) · year(-1). Variability in value of harvested wildlife was high among communities and households with an approximate 2 orders of magnitude difference in the proportional value of wildlife to household income. The imputed price of harvested wildlife and its consumption were strongly associated (p< 0.001), and increases in price led to reduced harvest for consumption. Heightened monitoring and enforcement of hunting could increase the costs of harvesting and thus elevate the price and reduce consumption of wildlife. Increased enforcement would therefore be beneficial to biodiversity conservation but could limit local people's food supply. Specifically, our results provide an estimate of the cost of offsetting economic losses to local populations from the enforcement of conservation policies. By explicitly estimating the welfare effects of consumed wildlife, our results may inform targeted interventions by public health and development specialists as they allocate sparse funds to support regions, households, or individuals most vulnerable to changes in access to wildlife. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Machine Learning Applications in Estimating Transformer Loss of Life

    OpenAIRE

    Majzoobi, Alireza; Mahoor, Mohsen; Khodaei, Amin

    2017-01-01

    Transformer life assessment and failure diagnostics have always been important problems for electric utility companies. Ambient temperature and load profile are the main factors which affect aging of the transformer insulation, and consequently, the transformer lifetime. The IEEE Std. C57.911995 provides a model for calculating the transformer loss of life based on ambient temperature and transformer's loading. In this paper, this standard is used to develop a data-driven static model for hou...

  13. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THE SHAPE PARAMETER OF THE GENERALISED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION UNDER DIFFERENT LOSS FUNCTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANKU DEY

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The generalized exponential (GE distribution proposed by Gupta and Kundu (1999 is an important lifetime distribution in survival analysis. In this article, we propose to obtain Bayes estimators and its associated risk based on a class of  non-informative prior under the assumption of three loss functions, namely, quadratic loss function (QLF, squared log-error loss function (SLELF and general entropy loss function (GELF. The motivation is to explore the most appropriate loss function among these three loss functions. The performances of the estimators are, therefore, compared on the basis of their risks obtained under QLF, SLELF and GELF separately. The relative efficiency of the estimators is also obtained. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the Bayes estimates under different situations.

  14. Estimating extreme losses for the Florida Public Hurricane Model—part II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulati, Sneh; George, Florence; Hamid, Shahid

    2018-02-01

    Rising global temperatures are leading to an increase in the number of extreme events and losses (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/). Accurate estimation of these extreme losses with the intention of protecting themselves against them is critical to insurance companies. In a previous paper, Gulati et al. (2014) discussed probable maximum loss (PML) estimation for the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) using parametric and nonparametric methods. In this paper, we investigate the use of semi-parametric methods to do the same. Detailed analysis of the data shows that the annual losses from FPHLM do not tend to be very heavy tailed, and therefore, neither the popular Hill's method nor the moment's estimator work well. However, Pickand's estimator with threshold around the 84th percentile provides a good fit for the extreme quantiles for the losses.

  15. Using Expert Elicitation to Estimate the Impacts of Plastic Pollution on Marine Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallos, N. J.; Wilcox, C.; Leonard, G. H.; Rodriquez, A. G.; Hardesty, B. D.

    2016-02-01

    With the rapid increase in global plastics production and the resulting large volume of litter that enters the marine environment, determining the consequences of this debris on marine fauna and ocean health has now become a critical environmental priority, particularly for threatened and endangered species. However, there are limited data about the impacts on debris on marine species from which to draw conclusions about the population consequences of anthropogenic debris. To address this knowledge gap, information was elicited from experts on the ecological threat of entanglement, ingestion and chemical contamination for three major marine taxa: seabirds, sea turtles and marine mammals. The threat assessment focused on the most common types of litter that are found along the world's coastlines, based on data gathered during three decades of international coastal clean-up efforts. Fishing related gear, balloons and plastic bags were estimated to pose the greatest entanglement risk to marine fauna. In contrast, experts identified a broader suite of items of concern for ingestion, with plastic bags and plastic utensils ranked as the greatest threats. Entanglement and ingestion affected a similar range of taxa, although entanglement was slightly worse as it is more likely to be lethal. Contamination was scored the lowest in terms of its impact, affecting a smaller portion of the taxa and being rated as having solely non-lethal impacts. Research designed to better understand and quantify the impacts of chemical contamination on marine fauna at individual, population and species levels should be a priority for conservation biologists. This work points towards a number of opportunities for both policy-based and consumer-driven changes in plastics use that could have demonstrable affects for a range of taxa that are ecologically important and serve as indicators of marine ecosystem health. Based on threat rankings, entanglement and ingestion should be a similar priority

  16. Improved ice loss estimate of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kjeldsen, K.K.; Khan, S.A.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Angelen, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change

  17. Wildlife law and policy

    OpenAIRE

    Bertouille, S.

    2012-01-01

    One of the crucial issues of our decades is how to stop the loss of biodiversity. Policy–makers need reliable data to base their decisions on. Managing wildlife populations requires, first of all, science–based knowledge of their abundance, dynamics, ecology, behaviour and dispersal capacities based on reliable qualitative data. The importance of dialogue and communication with the local actors should be stressed (Sennerby Forsse, 2010) as bag statistics and other monitoring data in wildlife ...

  18. Wildlife and wildlife habitat restoration and compensation in the event of an oil spill in the Beaufort Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, M.J.; Davies, S.L.

    1993-01-01

    A procedure for estimating the potential costs of a worst-case scenario for a Beaufort Sea oil spill has been developed by applying assessments of the vulnerability and sensitivity of valued wildlife species to oil, an evaluation of practicability of restoration options, and estimates of the costs of implementing specific measures to aid in the restoration of wildlife species and their habitat. The procedure was developed and tested using valued wildlife species and elements of selected worst-case oil spill scenarios. Proponent use of the procedure in a project-specific application will demand certain information prerequisites, including a project-specific oil spill scenario, an assessment of the potential impacts on wildlife and habitat, and the predicted effectiveness of countermeasures and cleanup. Total compensation costs that account for potential loss of harvest of wildlife in the event of a worst-case oil spill were estimated to be nearly $12.2 million. Recommendations were also made with respect to wildlife and wildlife habitat restoration, as well as with respect to compensation issues. 103 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  19. Wildlife Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steen, Kim Arild; Therkildsen, Ole Roland; Karstoft, Henrik

    This report contains a progress report for the ph.d. project titled “Wildlife Communication”. The project focuses on investigating how signal processing and pattern recognition can be used to improve wildlife management in agriculture. Wildlife management systems used today experience habituation...

  20. Estimation of economic losses due to Peste de Petits Ruminants in small ruminants in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Singh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To develop a simple mathematical model to assess the losses due to peste des petits ruminants (PPR in small ruminants in India. Materials and Methods: The study was based on cases and deaths in goats and sheep due to PPR from the average combined data on ovine/caprine as published by Government of India for the last 5 years (2008-2012. All possible direct and indirect losses due to the disease, viz. mortality losses, losses due to direct reduction in milk/wool yield, losses due to reproduction failure, body weight losses, treatment costs and opportunity costs, were considered to provide estimate of annual economic losses due to PPR in sheep and goats in India. Based on cases and deaths as reported in sample survey studies, the annual economic loss was also estimated. Results: On the basis of data reported by Government of India, the study has shown average annual economic loss of Rs. 167.83 lacs, of which Rs. 125.67 lacs and Rs. 42.16 lacs respectively are due to the incidence of the disease in goats and sheep. Morbidity losses constituted the greater share of the total loss in both goats and sheep (56.99% and 61.34%, respectively. Among different components of morbidity loss, direct body weight loss was the most significant in both goats and sheep. Based on cases and deaths as reported in sample survey studies, the estimated annual economic loss due to PPR in goats and sheep is Rs. 8895.12 crores, of which Rs. 5477.48 and Rs. 3417.64 crores respectively are due to the disease in goats and sheep. Conclusion: The low economic losses as reported based on Government of India data points towards underreporting of cases and deaths due to the disease. The study thus revealed a significant loss due to PPR in small ruminants on a large scale.

  1. The estimation of tissue loss during tangential hydrosurgical debridement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumura, Hajime; Nozaki, Motohiro; Watanabe, Katsueki; Sakurai, Hiroyuki; Kawakami, Shigehiko; Nakazawa, Hiroaki; Matsumura, Izumi; Katahira, Jiro; Inokuchi, Sadaki; Ichioka, Shigeru; Ikeda, Hiroto; Mole, Trevor; Smith, Jennifer; Martin, Robin; Aikawa, Naoki

    2012-11-01

    The preservation of healthy tissue during surgical debridement is desirable as this may improve clinical outcomes. This study has estimated for the first time the amount of tissue lost during debridement using the VERSAJET system of tangential hydrosurgery. A multicenter, prospective case series was carried out on 47 patients with mixed wound types: 21 (45%) burns, 13 (28%) chronic wounds, and 13 (28%) acute wounds. Overall, 44 (94%) of 47 patients achieved appropriate debridement after a single debridement procedure as verified by an independent photographic assessment. The percentage of necrotic tissue reduced from a median of 50% to 0% (P < 0.001). Median wound area and depth increased by only 0.3 cm (6.8%) and 0.5 mm (25%), respectively. Notably, 43 (91%) of 47 wounds did not progress into a deeper compartment, indicating a high degree of tissue preservation.

  2. Estimating coastal wetland gain and losses in Galveston County and Cameron County, Texas, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Entwistle, Clare; Mora, Miguel A; Knight, Robert

    2018-01-01

    Coastal wetlands serve many important ecological services. One of these important ecological services is their use as storm buffers. Coastal wetlands provide habitat for migratory birds and aquatic species and can improve water quality. In the late 1990s, the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) published a study outlining the trends of coastal wetlands from the 1950s to early 1990s. In the present study, wetland gains and losses were calculated for Galveston County and Cameron County, Texas, USA, between 2001 and 2011. Maps from the National Land Cover Database were used to determine wetland areas for the years 2001, 2006, and 2011. ArcGIS was used to compare land cover between the study periods to determine overall wetland losses and gains. A statistical analysis was performed between wetland loss and population data to determine whether increased population density led to a higher loss of wetlands. Our analysis indicates that wetland loss is still occurring, however at a lower rate of loss (0.14%-0.18% annually) than the USFWS study predicted earlier (2.7%). In addition, the majority of wetland losses were due to conversion to upland areas. We found a positive correlation between increased population density and decreased wetland area; however, the trend was not significant. The present study shows how the majority of wetland loss in Galveston and Cameron counties is occurring as a result of increased upland areas. In addition, the present study shows that the use of online mapping systems can be used as a low-cost alternative to assess land changes when field tests are not feasible. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:120-129. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  3. The impact of a and b value uncertainty on loss estimation in the reinsurance industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Streit

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available In the reinsurance industry different probabilistic models are currently used for seismic risk analysis. A credible loss estimation of the insured values depends on seismic hazard analysis and on the vulnerability functions of the given structures. Besides attenuation and local soil amplification, the earthquake occurrence model (often represented by the Gutenberg and Richter relation is a key element in the analysis. However, earthquake catalogues are usually incomplete, the time of observation is too short and the data themselves contain errors. Therefore, a and b values can only be estimated with uncertainties. The knowledge of their variation provides a valuable input for earthquake risk analysis, because they allow the probability distribution of expected losses (expressed by Average Annual Loss (AAL to be modelled. The variations of a and b have a direct effect on the estimated exceeding probability and consequently on the calculated loss level. This effect is best illustrated by exceeding probability versus loss level and AAL versus magnitude graphs. The sensitivity of average annual losses due to different a to b ratios and magnitudes is obvious. The estimation of the variation of a and b and the quantification of the sensitivity of calculated losses are fundamental for optimal earthquake risk management. Ignoring these uncertainties means that risk management decisions neglect possible variations of the earthquake loss estimations.

  4. ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS AND RELIABILITY FUNCTION OF EXPONENTIATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION: BAYESIAN APPROACH UNDER GENERAL ENTROPY LOSS FUNCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kumar Singh

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In this Paper we propose Bayes estimators of the parameters of Exponentiated Exponential distribution and Reliability functions under General Entropy loss function for Type II censored sample. The proposed estimators have been compared with the corresponding Bayes estimators obtained under Squared Error loss function and maximum likelihood estimators for their simulated risks (average loss over sample space.

  5. Experimental formulas and curves for estimating reactivity loss and radio-isotope yields on HWRR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xi Zhi; Zhu HuanNan

    1999-01-01

    Based on the elemental conception of reactor physics and experiments on HWRR for years. A set of experimental formulas and curves has been got, which can be used to estimate reactivity loss and radio isotopes yield. (author)

  6. Incorporation of Finite Element Analysis into Annual Energy Loss Estimation for Permanent Magnet Wind Turbine Generators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Matthew Lee; Jensen, Bogi Bech

    2013-01-01

    Several methods of estimating the annual energy losses for wind turbine generators are investigated in this paper. Utilizing a high amount of transient simulations with motion is first demonstrated. Usage of a space-time transformation for prediction of iron losses is also explored. The methods, ...

  7. Estimation of furrow irrigation sediment loss using an artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    The area irrigated by furrow irrigation in the U.S. has been steadily decreasing but still represents about 20% of the total irrigated area in the U.S. Furrow irrigation sediment loss is a major water quality issue and a method for estimating sediment loss is needed to quantify the environmental imp...

  8. A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, L. D.

    2016-01-01

    Since advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.

  9. Decay in blood loss estimation skills after web-based didactic training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo, Paloma; Eosakul, Stanley T; Goetz, Kristopher; Wong, Cynthia A; Grobman, William A

    2012-02-01

    Accuracy in blood loss estimation has been shown to improve immediately after didactic training. The objective of this study was to evaluate retention of blood loss estimation skills 9 months after a didactic web-based training. Forty-four participants were recruited from a cohort that had undergone web-based training and testing in blood loss estimation. The web-based posttraining test, consisting of pictures of simulated blood loss, was repeated 9 months after the initial training and testing. The primary outcome was the difference in accuracy of estimated blood loss (percent error) at 9 months compared with immediately posttraining. At the 9-month follow-up, the median error in estimation worsened to -34.6%. Although better than the pretraining error of -47.8% (P = 0.003), the 9-month error was significantly less accurate than the immediate posttraining error of -13.5% (P = 0.01). Decay in blood loss estimation skills occurs by 9 months after didactic training.

  10. Investigating the impact of uneven magnetic flux density distribution on core loss estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niroumand, Farideh Javidi; Nymand, Morten; Wang, Yiren

    2017-01-01

    is calculated according to an effective flux density value and the macroscopic dimensions of the cores. However, the flux distribution in the core can alter by core shapes and/or operating conditions due to nonlinear material properties. This paper studies the element-wise estimation of the loss in magnetic......There are several approaches for loss estimation in magnetic cores, and all these approaches highly rely on accurate information about flux density distribution in the cores. It is often assumed that the magnetic flux density evenly distributes throughout the core and the overall core loss...

  11. Visual estimation versus gravimetric measurement of postpartum blood loss: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Kadri, Hanan M F; Al Anazi, Bedayah K; Tamim, Hani M

    2011-06-01

    One of the major problems in international literature is how to measure postpartum blood loss with accuracy. We aimed in this research to assess the accuracy of visual estimation of postpartum blood loss (by each of two main health-care providers) compared with the gravimetric calculation method. We carried out a prospective cohort study at King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between 1 November 2009 and 31 December 2009. All women who were admitted to labor and delivery suite and delivered vaginally were included in the study. Postpartum blood loss was visually estimated by the attending physician and obstetrics nurse and then objectively calculated by a gravimetric machine. Comparison between the three methods of blood loss calculation was carried out. A total of 150 patients were included in this study. There was a significant difference between the gravimetric calculated blood loss and both health-care providers' estimation with a tendency to underestimate the loss by about 30%. The background and seniority of the assessing health-care provider did not affect the accuracy of the estimation. The corrected incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in Saudi Arabia was found to be 1.47%. Health-care providers tend to underestimate the volume of postpartum blood loss by about 30%. Training and continuous auditing of the diagnosis of postpartum hemorrhage is needed to avoid missing cases and thus preventing associated morbidity and mortality.

  12. An overall estimation of losses caused by diseases in the Brazilian fish farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares-Dias, Marcos; Martins, Maurício Laterça

    2017-12-01

    Parasitic and infectious diseases are common in finfish, but are difficult to accurately estimate the economic impacts on the production in a country with large dimensions like Brazil. The aim of this study was to estimate the costs caused by economic losses of finfish due to mortality by diseases in Brazil. A model for estimating the costs related to parasitic and bacterial diseases in farmed fish and an estimative of these economic impacts are presented. We used official data of production and mortality of finfish for rough estimation of economic losses. The losses herein presented are related to direct and indirect economic costs for freshwater farmed fish, which were estimated in US$ 84 million per year. Finally, it was possible to establish by the first time an estimative of overall losses in finfish production in Brazil using data available from production. Therefore, this current estimative must help researchers and policy makers to approximate the economic costs of diseases for fish farming industry, as well as for developing of public policies on the control measures of diseases and priority research lines.

  13. Estimating Phosphorus Loss at the Whole-Farm Scale with User-Friendly Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadas, P.; Powell, M.; Brink, G.; Busch, D.; Good, L.

    2014-12-01

    Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields and delivery to surface waters persists as a water quality impairment issue. For dairy farms, P can be lost from cropland, pastures, barnyards, and open-air cattle lots; and all these sources must be evaluated to determine which ones are a priority for P loss remediation. We used interview surveys to document land use, cattle herd characteristics, and manure management for four grazing-based dairy farms in Wisconsin, USA. We then used the APLE and Snap-Plus models to estimate annual P loss from all areas on these farms and determine their relative contribution to whole-farm P loss. At the whole-farm level, average annual P loss (kg ha-1) from grazing-based dairy farms was low (0.6 to 1.8 kg ha-1), generally because a significant portion of land was in permanently vegetated pastures or hay and had low erosion. However, there were areas on the farms that represented sources of significant P loss. For cropland, the greatest P loss was from areas with exposed soil, typically for corn production, and especially on steeper sloping land. The farm areas with the greatest P loss had concentrated animal housing, including barnyards, and over-wintering and young-stock lots. These areas can represent from about 5% to almost 30% of total farm P loss, depending on lot management and P loss from other land uses. Our project builds on research to show that producer surveys can provide reliable management information to assess whole-farm P loss. It also shows that we can use models like RUSLE2, Snap-Plus, and APLE to rapidly, reliably, and quantitatively estimate P loss in runoff from all areas on a dairy farm and identify areas in greatest need of alternative management to reduce P loss.

  14. A Temperature-Based Bioimpedance Correction for Water Loss Estimation During Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, Matthias; Lohmueller, Clemens; Rauh, Manfred; Mester, Joachim; Eskofier, Bjoern M

    2016-11-01

    The amount of total body water (TBW) can be estimated based on bioimpedance measurements of the human body. In sports, TBW estimations are of importance because mild water losses can impair muscular strength and aerobic endurance. Severe water losses can even be life threatening. TBW estimations based on bioimpedance, however, fail during sports because the increased body temperature corrupts bioimpedance measurements. Therefore, this paper proposes a machine learning method that eliminates the effects of increased temperature on bioimpedance and, consequently, reveals the changes in bioimpedance that are due to TBW loss. This is facilitated by utilizing changes in skin and core temperature. The method was evaluated in a study in which bioimpedance, temperature, and TBW loss were recorded every 15 min during a 2-h running workout. The evaluation demonstrated that the proposed method is able to reduce the error of TBW loss estimation by up to 71%, compared to the state of art. In the future, the proposed method in combination with portable bioimpedance devices might facilitate the development of wearable systems for continuous and noninvasive TBW loss monitoring during sports.

  15. Estimation of the energy loss at the blades in rowing: common assumptions revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmijster, Mathijs; De Koning, Jos; Van Soest, A J

    2010-08-01

    In rowing, power is inevitably lost as kinetic energy is imparted to the water during push-off with the blades. Power loss is estimated from reconstructed blade kinetics and kinematics. Traditionally, it is assumed that the oar is completely rigid and that force acts strictly perpendicular to the blade. The aim of the present study was to evaluate how reconstructed blade kinematics, kinetics, and average power loss are affected by these assumptions. A calibration experiment with instrumented oars and oarlocks was performed to establish relations between measured signals and oar deformation and blade force. Next, an on-water experiment was performed with a single female world-class rower rowing at constant racing pace in an instrumented scull. Blade kinematics, kinetics, and power loss under different assumptions (rigid versus deformable oars; absence or presence of a blade force component parallel to the oar) were reconstructed. Estimated power losses at the blades are 18% higher when parallel blade force is incorporated. Incorporating oar deformation affects reconstructed blade kinematics and instantaneous power loss, but has no effect on estimation of power losses at the blades. Assumptions on oar deformation and blade force direction have implications for the reconstructed blade kinetics and kinematics. Neglecting parallel blade forces leads to a substantial underestimation of power losses at the blades.

  16. A novel estimation of electrical and cooling losses in electric arc furnaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trejo, Eder; Martell, Fernando; Micheloud, Osvaldo; Teng, Lidong; Llamas, Armando; Montesinos-Castellanos, Alejandro

    2012-01-01

    A method to calculate electrical losses and a heat transfer model of a conventional Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) are presented. The application of a novel power theory for the EAF was used to compute electrical losses and it was compared with conventional power calculations. The electrical losses and electrical variables were used as input parameters to the proposed heat transfer model. Chemical energy sources were included as energy inputs to estimate the overall heat transferred including the heat losses in the cooling system. In the heat transfer model the furnace was divided in 11 inner surfaces and the radiation view factors between them were estimated by a commercial finite element software. Variations of the view factors for different arc coverage were evaluated. Different scenarios for cooling panels losses, with respect to arc coverage and thickness of slag layers adhered to cooling system panels, were analyzed. The approach presented in this work allows calculation of energy balances in electrical arc furnaces with low computational resources. Finally, the contribution of this research work is to define a framework for further research oriented to improve both the electrical and thermal energy efficiencies to increase productivity and reduce energy consumption in steel plants. -- Highlights: ► Radiation view factors for the electric arc furnace are estimated. ► Potential reduction in cooling losses is estimated to be 60 kWh/ton. ► Electrical losses are calculated based in the randomness power theory. ► The new approach yields an increase of 10% in the electrical losses. ► An analytic model is used to estimate the radiation mechanism.

  17. Parks beyond parks : genuine community-based wildlife eco-tourism or just another loss of land for Maasai pastoralists in Kenya?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rutten, M.M.E.M.

    2002-01-01

    In 1996 the Kenya Wildlife Services (KWS) embarked on a "Parks beyond Parks" programme, which aimed to bring some of the benefits of wildlife tourism to the local population. Under this programme, local people were allowed to start tented camps and other tourist activities in areas bordering

  18. Estimation of evaporative losses during storage of crude oil and petroleum products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihajlović Marina A.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Storage of crude oil and petroleum products inevitably leads to evaporative losses. Those losses are important for the industrial plants mass balances, as well as for the environmental protection. In this paper, estimation of evaporative losses was performed using software program TANKS 409d which was developed by the Agency for Environmental Protection of the United States - US EPA. Emissions were estimated for the following types of storage tanks: fixed conical roof tank, fixed dome roof tank, external floating roof tank, internal floating roof tank and domed external floating roof tank. Obtained results show quantities of evaporated losses per tone of stored liquid. Crude oil fixed roof storage tank losses are cca 0.5 kg per tone of crude oil. For floating roof, crude oil losses are 0.001 kg/t. Fuel oil (diesel fuel and heating oil have the smallest evaporation losses, which are in order of magnitude 10-3 kg/tone. Liquids with higher Reid Vapour Pressure have very high evaporative losses for tanks with fixed roof, up to 2.07 kg/tone. In case of external floating roof tank, losses are 0.32 kg/tone. The smallest losses are for internal floating roof tank and domed external floating roof tank: 0.072 and 0.044, respectively. Finally, it can be concluded that the liquid with low volatility of low BTEX amount can be stored in tanks with fixed roof. In this case, the prevailing economic aspect, because the total amount of evaporative loss does not significantly affect the environment. On the other hand, storage of volatile derivatives with high levels of BTEX is not justified from the economic point of view or from the standpoint of the environment protection.

  19. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolster, Carl H; Vadas, Peter A

    2013-07-01

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. Although it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study we assessed the effect of model input error on predictions of annual P loss by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our objectives were (i) to conduct a sensitivity analyses for all APLE input variables to determine which variables the model is most sensitive to, (ii) to determine whether the relatively easy-to-implement first-order approximation (FOA) method provides accurate estimates of model prediction uncertainties by comparing results with the more accurate Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the APLE model against measured P loss data when uncertainties in model predictions and measured data are included. Our results showed that for low to moderate uncertainties in APLE input variables, the FOA method yields reasonable estimates of model prediction uncertainties, although for cases where manure solid content is between 14 and 17%, the FOA method may not be as accurate as the MCS method due to a discontinuity in the manure P loss component of APLE at a manure solid content of 15%. The estimated uncertainties in APLE predictions based on assumed errors in the input variables ranged from ±2 to 64% of the predicted value. Results from this study highlight the importance of including reasonable estimates of model uncertainty when using models to predict P loss. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  20. Estimating milk yield and value losses from increased somatic cell count on US dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadrich, J C; Wolf, C A; Lombard, J; Dolak, T M

    2018-04-01

    Milk loss due to increased somatic cell counts (SCC) results in economic losses for dairy producers. This research uses 10 mo of consecutive dairy herd improvement data from 2013 and 2014 to estimate milk yield loss using SCC as a proxy for clinical and subclinical mastitis. A fixed effects regression was used to examine factors that affected milk yield while controlling for herd-level management. Breed, milking frequency, days in milk, seasonality, SCC, cumulative months with SCC greater than 100,000 cells/mL, lactation, and herd size were variables included in the regression analysis. The cumulative months with SCC above a threshold was included as a proxy for chronic mastitis. Milk yield loss increased as the number of test days with SCC ≥100,000 cells/mL increased. Results from the regression were used to estimate a monetary value of milk loss related to SCC as a function of cow and operation related explanatory variables for a representative dairy cow. The largest losses occurred from increased cumulative test days with a SCC ≥100,000 cells/mL, with daily losses of $1.20/cow per day in the first month to $2.06/cow per day in mo 10. Results demonstrate the importance of including the duration of months above a threshold SCC when estimating milk yield losses. Cows with chronic mastitis, measured by increased consecutive test days with SCC ≥100,000 cells/mL, resulted in higher milk losses than cows with a new infection. This provides farm managers with a method to evaluate the trade-off between treatment and culling decisions as it relates to mastitis control and early detection. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Bayesian Estimation of the Scale Parameter of Inverse Weibull Distribution under the Asymmetric Loss Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Yahgmaei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes different methods of estimating the scale parameter in the inverse Weibull distribution (IWD. Specifically, the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter in IWD is introduced. We then derived the Bayes estimators for the scale parameter in IWD by considering quasi, gamma, and uniform priors distributions under the square error, entropy, and precautionary loss functions. Finally, the different proposed estimators have been compared by the extensive simulation studies in corresponding the mean square errors and the evolution of risk functions.

  2. Improving PAGER's real-time earthquake casualty and loss estimation toolkit: a challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    We describe the on-going developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models, and discuss value-added web content that can be generated related to exposure, damage and loss outputs for a variety of PAGER users. These developments include identifying vulnerable building types in any given area, estimating earthquake-induced damage and loss statistics by building type, and developing visualization aids that help locate areas of concern for improving post-earthquake response efforts. While detailed exposure and damage information is highly useful and desirable, significant improvements are still necessary in order to improve underlying building stock and vulnerability data at a global scale. Existing efforts with the GEM’s GED4GEM and GVC consortia will help achieve some of these objectives. This will benefit PAGER especially in regions where PAGER’s empirical model is less-well constrained; there, the semi-empirical and analytical models will provide robust estimates of damage and losses. Finally, we outline some of the challenges associated with rapid casualty and loss estimation that we experienced while responding to recent large earthquakes worldwide.

  3. Estimating tag loss of the Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, using a multi-state model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Catherine Alyssa; McGowan, Conor P.; Grand, James B.; Smith, David

    2012-01-01

    The Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is a valuable resource along the Mid-Atlantic coast which has, in recent years, experienced new management paradigms due to increased concern about this species role in the environment. While current management actions are underway, many acknowledge the need for improved and updated parameter estimates to reduce the uncertainty within the management models. Specifically, updated and improved estimates of demographic parameters such as adult crab survival in the regional population of interest, Delaware Bay, could greatly enhance these models and improve management decisions. There is however, some concern that difficulties in tag resighting or complete loss of tags could be occurring. As apparent from the assumptions of a Jolly-Seber model, loss of tags can result in a biased estimate and underestimate a survival rate. Given that uncertainty, as a first step towards estimating an unbiased estimate of adult survival, we first took steps to estimate the rate of tag loss. Using data from a double tag mark-resight study conducted in Delaware Bay and Program MARK, we designed a multi-state model to allow for the estimation of mortality of each tag separately and simultaneously.

  4. Use of Annual Phosphorus Loss Estimator (APLE) Model to Evaluate a Phosphorus Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorellino, Nicole M; McGrath, Joshua M; Vadas, Peter A; Bolster, Carl H; Coale, Frank J

    2017-11-01

    The Phosphorus (P) Index was developed to provide a relative ranking of agricultural fields according to their potential for P loss to surface water. Recent efforts have focused on updating and evaluating P Indices against measured or modeled P loss data to ensure agreement in magnitude and direction. Following a recently published method, we modified the Maryland P Site Index (MD-PSI) from a multiplicative to a component index structure and evaluated the MD-PSI outputs against P loss data estimated by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model, a validated, field-scale, annual P loss model. We created a theoretical dataset of fields to represent Maryland conditions and scenarios and created an empirical dataset of soil samples and management characteristics from across the state. Through the evaluation process, we modified a number of variables within the MD-PSI and calculated weighting coefficients for each P loss component. We have demonstrated that our methods can be used to modify a P Index and increase correlation between P Index output and modeled P loss data. The methods presented here can be easily applied in other states where there is motivation to update an existing P Index. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  5. Recent applications for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses with ELER Software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demircioglu, M.B.; Erdik, M.; Kamer, Y.; Sesetyan, K.; Tuzun, C.

    2012-01-01

    A methodology and software package entitled Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) was developed for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region. The work was carried out under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 project entitled Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology (NERIES). The ELER methodology anticipates: 1) finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismo-tectonic data base; 2) estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region specific ground motion prediction models, bias-correcting the ground motion estimations with strong ground motion data, if available; 3) estimation of the spatial distribution of site-corrected ground motion parameters using regional geology database using appropriate amplification models; and 4) estimation of the losses and uncertainties at various orders of sophistication (buildings, casualties). The multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships which are coded into ELER. The present paper provides brief information on the methodology of ELER and provides an example application with the recent major earthquake that hit the Van province in the east of Turkey on 23 October 2011 with moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.2. For this earthquake, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) provided almost real time estimations in terms of building damage and casualty distribution using ELER. (author)

  6. Auditing wildlife

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.K. Reilly

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Reilly B.K. and Y. Reilly. 2003. Auditing wildlife. Koedoe 46(2: 97–102. Pretoria. ISSN 0075-6458. Accountants and auditors are increasingly confronted with the problem of auditing wildlife populations on game ranches as their clients' asset base expands into this industry. This paper aims to provide guidelines on these actions based on case study data and research in the field of wildlife monitoring. Parties entering into dispute on numbers of animals on a property often resort to their auditors for advice. This paper tracks a method of deciding on whether or not to audit the population based on wildlife value and an initial sample count. This will act as a guideline for the accounting profession when confronted by this problem.

  7. Wildlife Districts

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — The Wildlife Districts layer is part of a larger dataset contains administrative boundaries for Vermont's Agency of Natural Resources. The dataset includes feature...

  8. How many tigers Panthera tigris are there in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand? An estimate using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simcharoen, S.; Pattanavibool, A.; Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.

    2007-01-01

    We used capture-recapture analyses to estimate the density of a tiger Panthera tigris population in the tropical forests of Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand, from photographic capture histories of 15 distinct individuals. The closure test results (z = 0.39, P = 0.65) provided some evidence in support of the demographic closure assumption. Fit of eight plausible closed models to the data indicated more support for model Mh, which incorporates individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities. This model generated an average capture probability $\\hat p$ = 0.42 and an abundance estimate of $\\widehat{N}(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{N}])$ = 19 (9.65) tigers. The sampled area of $\\widehat{A}(W)(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{A}(W)])$ = 477.2 (58.24) km2 yielded a density estimate of $\\widehat{D}(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{D}])$ = 3.98 (0.51) tigers per 100 km2. Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary could therefore hold 113 tigers and the entire Western Forest Complex c. 720 tigers. Although based on field protocols that constrained us to use sub-optimal analyses, this estimated tiger density is comparable to tiger densities in Indian reserves that support moderate prey abundances. However, tiger densities in well-protected Indian reserves with high prey abundances are three times higher. If given adequate protection we believe that the Western Forest Complex of Thailand could potentially harbour >2,000 wild tigers, highlighting its importance for global tiger conservation. The monitoring approaches we recommend here would be useful for managing this tiger population.

  9. Landslides in Colorado, USA--Impacts and loss estimation for 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Highland, Lynn M.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this study is to investigate landslides and consequent losses which affected Colorado in the year 2010. By obtaining landslide reports from a variety of sources, this report will demonstrate the feasibility of creating a profile of landslides and their effects on communities. A short overview of the current status of landslide-loss studies for the United States is introduced, followed by a compilation of landslide occurrence and associated losses and impacts which affected Colorado for the year 2010. Direct costs are summarized in descriptive and tabular form, and where possible, indirect costs are also noted or estimated. Total direct costs of landslides in Colorado for the year 2010 were approximately $9,149,335.00 (2010 U.S. dollars). (Since not all data for damages and costs were obtained, this figure realistically could be considerably higher.) Indirect costs were noted where available but are not totaled due to the fact that most indirect costs were not obtainable for various reasons outlined later in this report. Casualty data are considered as being within the scope of loss evaluation, and are reported in Appendix 1, but are not assigned dollar losses. More details on the source material for loss data not found in the reference section are reported in Appendix 2, and Appendix 3 summarizes notes on landslide-loss investigations in general and lessons learned during the process of loss-data collection.

  10. Calorie Estimation in Adults Differing in Body Weight Class and Weight Loss Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Ruth E; Canning, Karissa L; Fung, Michael; Jiandani, Dishay; Riddell, Michael C; Macpherson, Alison K; Kuk, Jennifer L

    2016-03-01

    Ability to accurately estimate calories is important for weight management, yet few studies have investigated whether individuals can accurately estimate calories during exercise or in a meal. The objective of this study was to determine if accuracy of estimation of moderate or vigorous exercise energy expenditure and calories in food is associated with body weight class or weight loss status. Fifty-eight adults who were either normal weight (NW) or overweight (OW), and either attempting (WL) or not attempting weight loss (noWL), exercised on a treadmill at a moderate (60% HRmax) and a vigorous intensity (75% HRmax) for 25 min. Subsequently, participants estimated the number of calories they expended through exercise and created a meal that they believed to be calorically equivalent to the exercise energy expenditure. The mean difference between estimated and measured calories in exercise and food did not differ within or between groups after moderate exercise. After vigorous exercise, OW-noWL overestimated energy expenditure by 72% and overestimated the calories in their food by 37% (P food compared with both WL groups (P food. There was a wide range of underestimation and overestimation of calories during exercise and in a meal. Error in calorie estimation may be greater in overweight adults who are not attempting weight loss.

  11. Production loss due to new subclinical mastitis in Dutch dairy cows estimated iwth a test-day model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halasa, T.; Nielen, M.; Roos, de S.; Hoorne, van R.; Jong, de G.; Lam, T.J.G.M.; Werven, van T.; Hogeveen, H.

    2009-01-01

    Milk, fat, and protein loss due to a new subclinical mastitis case may be economically important, and the objective of this study was to estimate this loss. The loss was estimated based on test-day (TD) cow records collected over a 1-yr period from 400 randomly selected Dutch dairy herds. After

  12. Estimation of the energy loss at the blades in rowing: common assumptions revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofmijster, M.J.; de Koning, J.J.; van Soest, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    In rowing, power is inevitably lost as kinetic energy is imparted to the water during push-off with the blades. Power loss is estimated from reconstructed blade kinetics and kinematics. Traditionally, it is assumed that the oar is completely rigid and that force acts strictly perpendicular to the

  13. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogel, L.; Verschuure, H.; Ploeg, C.P.B. van der; Brug, J.; Raat, H.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512 adolescents

  14. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Vogel (Ineke); H. Verschuure (Hans); C.P.B. van der Ploeg (Catharina); J. Brug (Hans); H. Raat (Hein)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractObjectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512

  15. Directional maximum likelihood self-estimation of the path-loss exponent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, Y.; Leus, G.J.T.; Dong, Min; Zheng, Thomas Fang

    2016-01-01

    The path-loss exponent (PLE) is a key parameter in wireless propagation channels. Therefore, obtaining the knowledge of the PLE is rather significant for assisting wireless communications and networking to achieve a better performance. Most existing methods for estimating the PLE not only require

  16. Estimates of Annual Soil Loss Rates in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grasiela de Oliveira Rodrigues Medeiros

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Soil is a natural resource that has been affected by human pressures beyond its renewal capacity. For this reason, large agricultural areas that were productive have been abandoned due to soil degradation, mainly caused by the erosion process. The objective of this study was to apply the Universal Soil Loss Equation to generate more recent estimates of soil loss rates for the state of São Paulo using a database with information from medium resolution (30 m. The results showed that many areas of the state have high (critical levels of soil degradation due to the predominance of consolidated human activities, especially in growing sugarcane and pasture use. The average estimated rate of soil loss is 30 Mg ha-1 yr-1 and 59 % of the area of the state (except for water bodies and urban areas had estimated rates above 12 Mg ha-1 yr-1, considered as the average tolerance limit in the literature. The average rates of soil loss in areas with annual agricultural crops, semi-perennial agricultural crops (sugarcane, and permanent agricultural crops were 118, 78, and 38 Mg ha-1 yr-1 respectively. The state of São Paulo requires attention to conservation of soil resources, since most soils led to estimates beyond the tolerance limit.

  17. BN-FLEMOps pluvial - A probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roezer, V.; Kreibich, H.; Schroeter, K.; Doss-Gollin, J.; Lall, U.; Merz, B.

    2017-12-01

    Pluvial flood events, such as in Copenhagen (Denmark) in 2011, Beijing (China) in 2012 or Houston (USA) in 2016, have caused severe losses to urban dwellings in recent years. These floods are caused by storm events with high rainfall rates well above the design levels of urban drainage systems, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings. A projected increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in many areas and an ongoing urbanization may increase pluvial flood losses in the future. For an efficient risk assessment and adaptation to pluvial floods, a quantification of the flood risk is needed. Few loss models have been developed particularly for pluvial floods. These models usually use simple waterlevel- or rainfall-loss functions and come with very high uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties and improve the loss estimation, we present a probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods based on empirical data. The model was developed in a two-step process using a machine learning approach and a comprehensive database comprising 783 records of direct building and content damage of private households. The data was gathered through surveys after four different pluvial flood events in Germany between 2005 and 2014. In a first step, linear and non-linear machine learning algorithms, such as tree-based and penalized regression models were used to identify the most important loss influencing factors among a set of 55 candidate variables. These variables comprise hydrological and hydraulic aspects, early warning, precaution, building characteristics and the socio-economic status of the household. In a second step, the most important loss influencing variables were used to derive a probabilistic multi-variable pluvial flood loss estimation model based on Bayesian Networks. Two different networks were tested: a score-based network learned from the data and a network based on expert knowledge. Loss predictions are made

  18. Nitrogen losses from dairy manure estimated through nitrogen mass balance and chemical markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristov, Alexander N.; Zaman, S.; Vander Pol, M.; Ndegwa, P.; Campbell, L.; Silva, S.

    2009-01-01

    Ammonia is an important air and water pollutant, but the spatial variation in its concentrations presents technical difficulties in accurate determination of ammonia emissions from animal feeding operations. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between ammonia volatilization and ??15N of dairy manure and the feasibility of estimating ammonia losses from a dairy facility using chemical markers. In Exp. 1, the N/P ratio in manure decreased by 30% in 14 d as cumulative ammonia losses increased exponentially. Delta 15N of manure increased throughout the course of the experiment and ??15N of emitted ammonia increased (p < 0.001) quadratically from -31??? to -15 ???. The relationship between cumulative ammonia losses and ??15N of manure was highly significant (p < 0.001; r2 = 0.76). In Exp. 2, using a mass balance approach, approximately half of the N excreted by dairy cows (Bos taurus) could not be accounted for in 24 h. Using N/P and N/K ratios in fresh and 24-h manure, an estimated 0.55 and 0.34 (respectively) of the N excreted with feces and urine could not be accounted for. This study demonstrated that chemical markers (P, K) can be successfully used to estimate ammonia losses from cattle manure. The relationship between manure ??15N and cumulative ammonia loss may also be useful for estimating ammonia losses. Although promising, the latter approach needs to be further studied and verified in various experimental conditions and in the field. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

  19. Preventing land loss in coastal Louisiana: estimates of WTP and WTA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrolia, Daniel R; Kim, Tae-Goun

    2011-03-01

    A dichotomous-choice contingent-valuation survey was conducted in the State of Louisiana (USA) to estimate compensating surplus (CS) and equivalent surplus (ES) welfare measures for the prevention of future coastal wetland losses in Louisiana. Valuations were elicited using both willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept compensation (WTA) payment vehicles. Mean CS (WTP) estimates based on a probit model using a Box-Cox specification on income was $825 per household annually, and mean ES (WTA) was estimated at $4444 per household annually. Regression results indicate that the major factors influencing support for land-loss prevention were income (positive, WTP model only), perceived hurricane protection benefits (positive), environmental and recreation protection (positive), distrust of government (negative), age (positive, WTA model only), and race (positive for whites). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Improving volume loss estimates of the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet 2002-2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Niels Jákup; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup

    Studies have been carried out using various methods to estimate the Greenland ice sheet mass balance. Remote sensing techniques used to determine the ice sheet volume includes airborne and satellite radar and laser methods and measurements of ice flow of outlet glaciers use InSAR satellite radar......) does not work on sloping surfaces and is affected by radar penetration into the snow. InSAR estimates require knowledge of outlet glacier thickness. GRACE has limited spatial resolution and is affected by mass variations not just from ice changes, but also from hydrologic and ocean mass variability...... and mass redistribution within the solid Earth. The accuracy of ice mass and ice volume estimates can be assessed by comparing results from different techniques. Here, we focus on volume loss estimates from ICESat, ATM and LVIS data. We estimate catchment-wide ice volume change in northwest Greenland...

  1. The South African Tuberculosis Care Cascade: Estimated Losses and Methodological Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidoo, Pren; Theron, Grant; Rangaka, Molebogeng X; Chihota, Violet N; Vaughan, Louise; Brey, Zameer O; Pillay, Yogan

    2017-11-06

    While tuberculosis incidence and mortality are declining in South Africa, meeting the goals of the End TB Strategy requires an invigorated programmatic response informed by accurate data. Enumerating the losses at each step in the care cascade enables appropriate targeting of interventions and resources. We estimated the tuberculosis burden; the number and proportion of individuals with tuberculosis who accessed tests, had tuberculosis diagnosed, initiated treatment, and successfully completed treatment for all tuberculosis cases, for those with drug-susceptible tuberculosis (including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-coinfected cases) and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Estimates were derived from national electronic tuberculosis register data, laboratory data, and published studies. The overall tuberculosis burden was estimated to be 532005 cases (range, 333760-764480 cases), with successful completion of treatment in 53% of cases. Losses occurred at multiple steps: 5% at test access, 13% at diagnosis, 12% at treatment initiation, and 17% at successful treatment completion. Overall losses were similar among all drug-susceptible cases and those with HIV coinfection (54% and 52%, respectively, successfully completed treatment). Losses were substantially higher among rifampicin- resistant cases, with only 22% successfully completing treatment. Although the vast majority of individuals with tuberculosis engaged the public health system, just over half were successfully treated. Urgent efforts are required to improve implementation of existing policies and protocols to close gaps in tuberculosis diagnosis, treatment initiation, and successful treatment completion. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  2. Energy flow models for the estimation of technical losses in distribution network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Au, Mau Teng; Tan, Chin Hooi

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents energy flow models developed to estimate technical losses in distribution network. Energy flow models applied in this paper is based on input energy and peak demand of distribution network, feeder length and peak demand, transformer loading capacity, and load factor. Two case studies, an urban distribution network and a rural distribution network are used to illustrate application of the energy flow models. Results on technical losses obtained for the two distribution networks are consistent and comparable to network of similar types and characteristics. Hence, the energy flow models are suitable for practical application.

  3. Nitrogen losses from dairy manure estimated through nitrogen mass balance and chemical markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristov, Alexander N.; Zaman, S.; Vander Pol, M.; Ndegwa, P.; Campbell, L.; Silva, S.

    2009-01-01

    Ammonia is an important air and water pollutant, but the spatial variation in its concentrations presents technical difficulties in accurate determination of ammonia emissions from animal feeding operations. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between ammonia volatilization and ??15N of dairy manure and the feasibility of estimating ammonia losses from a dairy facility using chemical markers. In Exp. 1, the N/P ratio in manure decreased by 30% in 14 d as cumulative ammonia losses increased exponentially. Delta 15N of manure increased throughout the course of the experiment and ??15N of emitted ammonia increased (p rights reserved.

  4. High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Donat

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

    The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

  5. Body protein losses estimated by nitrogen balance and potassium-40 counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belyea, R.L.; Babbitt, C.L.; Sedgwick, H.T.; Zinn, G.M.

    1986-01-01

    Body protein losses estimated from N balance were compared with those estimated by 40K counting. Six nonlactating dairy cows were fed an adequate N diet for 7 wk, a low N diet for 9 wk, and a replete N diet for 3 wk. The low N diet contained high cell wall grass hay plus ground corn, starch, and molasses. Soybean meal was added to the low N diet to increase N in the adequate N and replete N diets. Intake was measured daily. Digestibilities, N balance, and body composition (estimated by 40K counting) were determined during each dietary regimen. During low N treatment, hay dry matter intake declined 2 kg/d, and supplement increased about .5 kg/d. Dry matter digestibility was not altered by N treatment. Protein and acid detergent fiber digestibilities decreased from 40 and 36% during adequate N to 20 and 2%, respectively, during low N. Fecal and urinary N also declined when cows were fed the low N diet. By the end of repletion, total intake, fiber, and protein digestibilities as well as N partition were similar to or exceeded those during adequate N intake. Body protein (N) loss was estimated by N balance to be about 3 kg compared with 8 kg by 40K counting. Body fat losses (32 kg) were large because of low energy digestibility and intake. Seven kilograms of body fat were regained during repletion, but there was no change in body protein

  6. Earthquake loss estimation for a gas lifeline transportation system in Colombia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamin, L.E.; Arambula, S.; Reyes, J.C. [Universidad de los Andes, Bogota (Colombia). Centro de Innovacion y Desarrollo Tecnologico; Belage, S.; Vega, A.; Gil, W. [TransGas de Occidente S.A., Bogota (Colombia)

    2004-07-01

    Methodologies are needed to estimate the seismic risk facing natural gas distribution systems in Colombia in order to establish insurance strategies, risk assessments and emergency plans. This study estimated the maximum probable losses associated with Colombia's 770 km long gas transportation system which stretches from Mariquita to Cali. The pipeline is vulnerable to seismic events, volcanic eruptions, extreme hydrological conditions, and their associated effects such as landslides, liquefaction and avalanches. A geographic information system (GIS) which includes seismic, volcanic, landslide and liquefaction hazards was used to estimate earthquake loss estimates for the natural gas distribution system. Elastic and inelastic finite element methods were used to evaluate the vulnerability of pipelines, bridges, underground crossings and valves. The results were incorporated into the GIS and were used to quantify the probable maximum losses for the system, the most critical associated event, the system's critical zones and the probable damage scenarios. The information was used to define insurance strategies, emergency and contingency plans. It was concluded that due to natural hazards, the natural gas distribution system is at moderate risk despite the low vulnerability of its components. Volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes could produce indirect phenomena such as landslides and liquefaction which could greatly influence the system and which would require adequate risk management. 14 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

  7. E-model MOS Estimate Improvement through Jitter Buffer Packet Loss Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Kovac

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Proposed article analyses dependence of MOS as a voice call quality (QoS measure estimated through ITU-T E-model under real network conditions with jitter. In this paper, a method of jitter effect is proposed. Jitter as voice packet time uncertainty appears as increased packet loss caused by jitter memory buffer under- or overflow. Jitter buffer behaviour at receiver’s side is modelled as Pareto/D/1/K system with Pareto-distributed packet interarrival times and its performance is experimentally evaluated by using statistic tools. Jitter buffer stochastic model is then incorporated into E-model in an additive manner accounting for network jitter effects via excess packet loss complementing measured network packet loss. Proposed modification of E-model input parameter adds two degrees of freedom in modelling: network jitter and jitter buffer size.

  8. The effects of war losses on mortality estimates for Italy: A first attempt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Bruzzone

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available For countries that experience substantial war losses in a given time period, the exclusion of military deaths can have an important impact on estimates of mortality and life expectancy. In this paper, we start by reviewing Vallin's work in accounting for French war losses. We then attempt to apply comparable methods to Italy in order to account for the effects of war. The results indicate that estimates currently available from the Human Mortality Database (HMD greatly underestimate period mortality during wartime among all Italian males, and may even underestimate mortality among civilian males. Finally, we discuss how failing to account for war mortality presents problems in making inter-country mortality comparisons.

  9. Erosivity factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation estimated from Finnish rainfall data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maximilian Posch

    1993-07-01

    Full Text Available Continuous rainfall data recorded for many years at 8 stations in Finland were used to estimate rainfall erosivity, a quantity needed for soil loss predictions with the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE. The obtained erosivity values were then used to determine the 2 parameters of a power-law function describing the relationship between daily precipitation and erosivity. This function is of importance in erosion modeling at locations where no breakpoint rainfall data are available. The parameters of the power-law were estimated both by linear regression of the log-transformed data and by non-linear least-square fitting of the original data. Results indicate a considerable seasonal (monthly variation of the erosivity, whereas the spatial variation over Finland is rather small.

  10. Estimation of the iron loss in deep-sea permanent magnet motors considering seawater compressive stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yongxiang; Wei, Yanyu; Zou, Jibin; Li, Jianjun; Qi, Wenjuan; Li, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Deep-sea permanent magnet motor equipped with fluid compensated pressure-tolerant system is compressed by the high pressure fluid both outside and inside. The induced stress distribution in stator core is significantly different from that in land type motor. Its effect on the magnetic properties of stator core is important for deep-sea motor designers but seldom reported. In this paper, the stress distribution in stator core, regarding the seawater compressive stress, is calculated by 2D finite element method (FEM). The effect of compressive stress on magnetic properties of electrical steel sheet, that is, permeability, BH curves, and BW curves, is also measured. Then, based on the measured magnetic properties and calculated stress distribution, the stator iron loss is estimated by stress-electromagnetics-coupling FEM. At last the estimation is verified by experiment. Both the calculated and measured results show that stator iron loss increases obviously with the seawater compressive stress.

  11. Estimation of the Iron Loss in Deep-Sea Permanent Magnet Motors considering Seawater Compressive Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxiang Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Deep-sea permanent magnet motor equipped with fluid compensated pressure-tolerant system is compressed by the high pressure fluid both outside and inside. The induced stress distribution in stator core is significantly different from that in land type motor. Its effect on the magnetic properties of stator core is important for deep-sea motor designers but seldom reported. In this paper, the stress distribution in stator core, regarding the seawater compressive stress, is calculated by 2D finite element method (FEM. The effect of compressive stress on magnetic properties of electrical steel sheet, that is, permeability, BH curves, and BW curves, is also measured. Then, based on the measured magnetic properties and calculated stress distribution, the stator iron loss is estimated by stress-electromagnetics-coupling FEM. At last the estimation is verified by experiment. Both the calculated and measured results show that stator iron loss increases obviously with the seawater compressive stress.

  12. A remote sensing method for estimating regional reservoir area and evaporative loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hua; Gorelick, Steven M.; Zimba, Paul V.; Zhang, Xiaodong

    2017-12-01

    Evaporation from the water surface of a reservoir can significantly affect its function of ensuring the availability and temporal stability of water supply. Current estimations of reservoir evaporative loss are dependent on water area derived from a reservoir storage-area curve. Such curves are unavailable if the reservoir is located in a data-sparse region or questionable if long-term sedimentation has changed the original elevation-area relationship. We propose a remote sensing framework to estimate reservoir evaporative loss at the regional scale. This framework uses a multispectral water index to extract reservoir area from Landsat imagery and estimate monthly evaporation volume based on pan-derived evaporative rates. The optimal index threshold is determined based on local observations and extended to unobserved locations and periods. Built on the cloud computing capacity of the Google Earth Engine, this framework can efficiently analyze satellite images at large spatiotemporal scales, where such analysis is infeasible with a single computer. Our study involves 200 major reservoirs in Texas, captured in 17,811 Landsat images over a 32-year period. The results show that these reservoirs contribute to an annual evaporative loss of 8.0 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 20% of their total active storage or 53% of total annual water use in Texas. At five coastal basins, reservoir evaporative losses exceed the minimum freshwater inflows required to sustain ecosystem health and fishery productivity of the receiving estuaries. Reservoir evaporative loss can be significant enough to counterbalance the positive effects of impounding water and to offset the contribution of water conservation and reuse practices. Our results also reveal the spatially variable performance of the multispectral water index and indicate the limitation of using scene-level cloud cover to screen satellite images. This study demonstrates the advantage of combining satellite remote sensing and

  13. Stellar model chromospheres. VI - Empirical estimates of the chromospheric radiative losses of late-type stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linsky, J. L.; Ayres, T. R.

    1978-01-01

    A method is developed for estimating the nonradiative heating of stellar chromospheres by measuring the net radiative losses in strong Fraunhofer line cores. This method is applied to observations of the Mg II resonance lines in a sample of 32 stars including the sun. At most a small dependence of chromospheric nonradiative heating on stellar surface gravity is found, which is contrary to the large effect predicted by recent calculations based on acoustic-heating theories.

  14. Estimation and comparison of intra operative blood loss in patients with and without venous thromboembolism prophylaxis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahsin, S.; Bashir, A.; Faiz, S.A.; Tahir, J.; Ijaz, A.

    2014-01-01

    To estimate and compare intraoperative blood loss in surgical patients with and without deep vein thrombosis (DVT) prophylaxis using unfractionated heparin Study Design: Clinical Trial Place and Duration: Surgery Department of Fauji Foundation Hospital and Physiology Department Foundation University Medical College from October 2011 to August 2012 Patients and Methodology: Patients were selected by non probability purposive sampling. Patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria were divided into 2 groups 25 each on the basis of order of presentation at Fauji Foundation Hospital until cohort numbers were reached. Group I received no heparin whereas group II received heparin. Written informed consent was taken from the patient after explaining the procedure of the study. Coagulation profile was done for both groups before the planned surgery. Heparin in a dose of 5000 units was administered subcutaneously to group II on the morning of the planned surgery and it was stopped 24 hours post operatively. Blood loss was estimated in both groups by weighing cotton swabs pre and post operatively. Data was analyzed by SPSS version 17. Results: Demographic data and surgical procedure time between the two groups did not differ. Blood loss between the two groups did not show any statistically significant difference. Conclusion: DVT prophylaxis using unfractionated heparin did not lead to any significant overt blood loss when compared with those without it. (author)

  15. Wildlife Habitat Evaluation Handbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neilson, Edward L., Jr.; Benson, Delwin E.

    The National 4-H Wildlife Invitational is a competitive event to teach youth about the fundamentals of wildlife management. Youth learn that management for wildlife means management of wildlife habitat and providing for the needs of wildlife. This handbook provides information about wildlife habitat management concepts in both urban and rural…

  16. Estimated costs of Sustaining Agricultural Production Through Erosional Control and Replenishment of Nutrient Losses in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    Soil erosion is one of the major causes of nutrient depletion in sub-Saharan Africa. Highlights of losses from erosion can be used to explain why agricultural production in this region is not sustainable. annual macronutrient losses were calculated from experimental results at 8 sites in Kenya between 1986 and 1990. these losses were used along with the current local prices of fertiliser to estimate the annual national budget required for there replenishment. On average, 5.72, 29.3 and 0.82 kg ha -1 yr -1 of N, P and K, respectively, were lost annually. These losses are determined by soil types, slope, crop cover characteristics and rainfall amounts. soil losses can be reduced by terracing, contour farming and intercropping to improve crop cover. These efforts reduce the adverse effects of sporadic rainfall on fragile soil types. in order to ensure sustainability however, control measures have to be supplemented by national additions of 64 000 t, 323 000 t and 10 000 t of N, P and K respectively per year. The equivalent costs of these fertilisers will be Ksh 1,408 Ksh 8721 Ksh 220 million for the respective nutrients. This would require a total of some US$256 million (Ksh 10 349 million) annually from the national budget

  17. A generalized muon trajectory estimation algorithm with energy loss for application to muon tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzidakis, Stylianos; Liu, Zhengzhi; Hayward, Jason P.; Scaglione, John M.

    2018-03-01

    This work presents a generalized muon trajectory estimation algorithm to estimate the path of a muon in either uniform or nonuniform media. The use of cosmic ray muons in nuclear nonproliferation and safeguard verification applications has recently gained attention due to the non-intrusive and passive nature of the inspection, penetrating capabilities, as well as recent advances in detectors that measure position and direction of the individual muons before and after traversing the imaged object. However, muon image reconstruction techniques are limited in resolution due to low muon flux and the effects of multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS). Current reconstruction algorithms, e.g., point of closest approach (PoCA) or straight-line path (SLP), rely on overly simple assumptions for muon path estimation through the imaged object. For robust muon tomography, efficient and flexible physics-based algorithms are needed to model the MCS process and accurately estimate the most probable trajectory of a muon as it traverses an object. In the present work, the use of a Bayesian framework and a Gaussian approximation of MCS is explored for estimation of the most likely path of a cosmic ray muon traversing uniform or nonuniform media and undergoing MCS. The algorithm's precision is compared to Monte Carlo simulated muon trajectories. It was found that the algorithm is expected to be able to predict muon tracks to less than 1.5 mm root mean square (RMS) for 0.5 GeV muons and 0.25 mm RMS for 3 GeV muons, a 50% improvement compared to SLP and 15% improvement when compared to PoCA. Further, a 30% increase in useful muon flux was observed relative to PoCA. Muon track prediction improved for higher muon energies or smaller penetration depth where energy loss is not significant. The effect of energy loss due to ionization is investigated, and a linear energy loss relation that is easy to use is proposed.

  18. Northwest Montana Wildlife Mitigation Habitat Protection : Advance Design : Final Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, Marilyn A.

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the habitat protection process developed to mitigate for certain wildlife and wildlife habitat losses due to construction of Hungry Horse and Libby dams in northwestern Montana.

  19. Regional earthquake loss estimation in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Winter, Benjamin

    2013-04-01

    Beside storm events geophysical events cause a majority of natural hazard losses on a global scale. However, in alpine regions with a moderate earthquake risk potential like in the study area and thereupon connected consequences on the collective memory this source of risk is often neglected in contrast to gravitational and hydrological hazards processes. In this context, the comparative analysis of potential disasters and emergencies on a national level in Switzerland (Katarisk study) has shown that earthquakes are the most serious source of risk in general. In order to estimate the potential losses of earthquake events for different return periods and loss dimensions of extreme events the following study was conducted in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy). The applied methodology follows the generally accepted risk concept based on the risk components hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability, whereby risk is not defined holistically (direct, indirect, tangible and intangible) but with the risk category losses on buildings and inventory as a general risk proxy. The hazard analysis is based on a regional macroseismic scenario approach. Thereby, the settlement centre of each community (116 communities) is defined as potential epicentre. For each epicentre four different epicentral scenarios (return periods of 98, 475, 975 and 2475 years) are calculated based on the simple but approved and generally accepted attenuation law according to Sponheuer (1960). The relevant input parameters to calculate the epicentral scenarios are (i) the macroseismic intensity and (ii) the focal depth. The considered macroseismic intensities are based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Italian earthquake catalogue on a community level (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile). The relevant focal depth are considered as a mean within a defined buffer of the focal depths of the harmonized earthquake catalogues of Italy and Switzerland as well as

  20. Mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect milk losses due to clinical mastitis in dairy cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detilleux, J; Kastelic, J P; Barkema, H W

    2015-03-01

    Milk losses associated with mastitis can be attributed to either effects of pathogens per se (i.e., direct losses) or effects of the immune response triggered by intramammary infection (indirect losses). The distinction is important in terms of mastitis prevention and treatment. Regardless, the number of pathogens is often unknown (particularly in field studies), making it difficult to estimate direct losses, whereas indirect losses can be approximated by measuring the association between increased somatic cell count (SCC) and milk production. An alternative is to perform a mediation analysis in which changes in milk yield are allocated into their direct and indirect components. We applied this method on data for clinical mastitis, milk and SCC test-day recordings, results of bacteriological cultures (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus uberis, coagulase-negative staphylococci, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, and streptococci other than Strep. dysgalactiae and Strep. uberis), and cow characteristics. Following a diagnosis of clinical mastitis, the cow was treated and changes (increase or decrease) in milk production before and after a diagnosis were interpreted counterfactually. On a daily basis, indirect changes, mediated by SCC increase, were significantly different from zero for all bacterial species, with a milk yield decrease (ranging among species from 4 to 33g and mediated by an increase of 1000 SCC/mL/day) before and a daily milk increase (ranging among species from 2 to 12g and mediated by a decrease of 1000 SCC/mL/day) after detection. Direct changes, not mediated by SCC, were only different from zero for coagulase-negative staphylococci before diagnosis (72g per day). We concluded that mixed structural equation models were useful to estimate direct and indirect effects of the presence of clinical mastitis on milk yield. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Bayesian Estimation Of Shift Point In Poisson Model Under Asymmetric Loss Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    uma srivastava

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with estimating  shift point which occurs in any sequence of independent observations  of Poisson model in statistical process control. This shift point occurs in the sequence when  i.e. m  life data are observed. The Bayes estimator on shift point 'm' and before and after shift process means are derived for symmetric and asymmetric loss functions under informative and non informative priors. The sensitivity analysis of Bayes estimators are carried out by simulation and numerical comparisons with  R-programming. The results shows the effectiveness of shift in sequence of Poisson disribution .

  2. Survival Bayesian Estimation of Exponential-Gamma Under Linex Loss Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizki, S. W.; Mara, M. N.; Sulistianingsih, E.

    2017-06-01

    This paper elaborates a research of the cancer patients after receiving a treatment in cencored data using Bayesian estimation under Linex Loss function for Survival Model which is assumed as an exponential distribution. By giving Gamma distribution as prior and likelihood function produces a gamma distribution as posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is used to find estimatior {\\hat{λ }}BL by using Linex approximation. After getting {\\hat{λ }}BL, the estimators of hazard function {\\hat{h}}BL and survival function {\\hat{S}}BL can be found. Finally, we compare the result of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Linex approximation to find the best method for this observation by finding smaller MSE. The result shows that MSE of hazard and survival under MLE are 2.91728E-07 and 0.000309004 and by using Bayesian Linex worths 2.8727E-07 and 0.000304131, respectively. It concludes that the Bayesian Linex is better than MLE.

  3. Effects of the loss of correlation structure on Phase 1 dose estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, J.C.

    1991-11-01

    In Phase I of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project, a step-by-step (modular) calculational structure was used. This structure was intended (1) to simplify the computational process, (2) to allow storage of intermediate calculations for later analyses, and (3) to guide the collection of data by presenting understandable structures for its use. The implementation of this modular structure resulted in the loss of correlation among inputs and outputs of the code, resulting in less accurate dose estimates than anticipated. The study documented in this report investigated two types of correlations in the Phase I model: temporal and pathway. Temporal correlations occur in the simulation when, in the calculation, data estimated for a previous time are used in a subsequent calculation. If the various portions of the calculation do not use the same realization of the earlier estimate, they are no longer correlated with respect to time. Similarly, spatial correlations occur in a simulation when, in the calculation, data estimated for a particular location are used in estimates for other locations. If the various calculations do not use the same value for the original location, they are no longer correlated with respect to location. The loss of the correlation structure in the Phase I code resulted in dose estimates that are biased. It is recommended that the air pathway dose model be restructured and the intermediate histograms eliminated. While the restructured code may still contain distinct modules, all input parameters to each module and all out put from each module should be retained in a database such that subsequent modules can access all the information necessary to retain the correlation structure

  4. Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

    Science.gov (United States)

    karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.; Erberik, M. A.; Yakut, A.

    2015-12-01

    Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active strike-slip faults as North Anatolian Fault, North East Anatolian Fault and Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of physical as well as economical losses. These losses are attributed to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. This study focuses on the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan using both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events simulated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. Through these models, the inelastic dynamic structural responses are investigated with non-linear time history analysis. To assess the potential seismic damage in the study area, fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results are observed to have a reasonable match indicating the efficiency of the ground motion simulations and building analyses.

  5. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  6. Assessing patterns of human-wildlife conflicts and compensation around a Central Indian protected area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krithi K Karanth

    Full Text Available Mitigating crop and livestock loss to wildlife and improving compensation distribution are important for conservation efforts in landscapes where people and wildlife co-occur outside protected areas. The lack of rigorously collected spatial data poses a challenge to management efforts to minimize loss and mitigate conflicts. We surveyed 735 households from 347 villages in a 5154 km(2 area surrounding Kanha Tiger Reserve in India. We modeled self-reported household crop and livestock loss as a function of agricultural, demographic and environmental factors, and mitigation measures. We also modeled self-reported compensation received by households as a function of demographic factors, conflict type, reporting to authorities, and wildlife species involved. Seventy-three percent of households reported crop loss and 33% livestock loss in the previous year, but less than 8% reported human injury or death. Crop loss was associated with greater number of cropping months per year and proximity to the park. Livestock loss was associated with grazing animals inside the park and proximity to the park. Among mitigation measures only use of protective physical structures were associated with reduced livestock loss. Compensation distribution was more likely for tiger related incidents, and households reporting loss and located in the buffer. Average estimated probability of crop loss was 0.93 and livestock loss was 0.60 for surveyed households. Estimated crop and livestock loss and compensation distribution were higher for households located inside the buffer. Our approach modeled conflict data to aid managers in identifying potential conflict hotspots, influential factors, and spatially maps risk probability of crop and livestock loss. This approach could help focus allocation of conservation efforts and funds directed at conflict prevention and mitigation where high densities of people and wildlife co-occur.

  7. Assessing patterns of human-wildlife conflicts and compensation around a Central Indian protected area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, Krithi K; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M; DeFries, Ruth; Ballal, Natasha

    2012-01-01

    Mitigating crop and livestock loss to wildlife and improving compensation distribution are important for conservation efforts in landscapes where people and wildlife co-occur outside protected areas. The lack of rigorously collected spatial data poses a challenge to management efforts to minimize loss and mitigate conflicts. We surveyed 735 households from 347 villages in a 5154 km(2) area surrounding Kanha Tiger Reserve in India. We modeled self-reported household crop and livestock loss as a function of agricultural, demographic and environmental factors, and mitigation measures. We also modeled self-reported compensation received by households as a function of demographic factors, conflict type, reporting to authorities, and wildlife species involved. Seventy-three percent of households reported crop loss and 33% livestock loss in the previous year, but less than 8% reported human injury or death. Crop loss was associated with greater number of cropping months per year and proximity to the park. Livestock loss was associated with grazing animals inside the park and proximity to the park. Among mitigation measures only use of protective physical structures were associated with reduced livestock loss. Compensation distribution was more likely for tiger related incidents, and households reporting loss and located in the buffer. Average estimated probability of crop loss was 0.93 and livestock loss was 0.60 for surveyed households. Estimated crop and livestock loss and compensation distribution were higher for households located inside the buffer. Our approach modeled conflict data to aid managers in identifying potential conflict hotspots, influential factors, and spatially maps risk probability of crop and livestock loss. This approach could help focus allocation of conservation efforts and funds directed at conflict prevention and mitigation where high densities of people and wildlife co-occur.

  8. Estimates of Workers with Noise-Induced Hearing Loss and Population at Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyakita, T.; Ueda, A.

    1997-08-01

    Towards the goal of protecting workers from damage due to noise exposure, a vast store of knowledge has been generated about its nature, etiology and time course. There still exists, however, a strong need to reclarify the locations, nature and magnitude of the problem of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). Based on the rate of positive results in a hearing screening test in the workplace, this paper presents an attempt to estimate the total number of workers with more than 40 dB hearing loss at 4 kHz caused by occupational noise exposure. The estimated values in major industry groups were as follows: about 780 000 in manufacturing; 410 000 in construction; 360 000 in agriculture; forestry and fishing; and around 2 million in total. Although it is rather difficult to estimate the number of workers exposed to noise above 85 dB(A), it may be reasonable to believe that at least several million workers exposed to noise should be covered by the 1992 guidelines for the prevention of noise hazards.

  9. A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Lentz, A.; Vrijling, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    In assessing the safety of engineering systems in the context of quantitative risk analysis one of the most important consequence types concerns the loss of life due to accidents and disasters. In this paper, a general approach for loss of life estimation is proposed which includes three elements: (1) the assessment of physical effects associated with the event; (2) determination of the number of exposed persons (taking into account warning and evacuation); and (3) determination of mortality amongst the population exposed. The typical characteristics of and modelling approaches for these three elements are discussed. This paper focuses on 'small probability-large consequences' events within the engineering domain. It is demonstrated how the proposed approach can be applied to various case studies, such as tunnel fires, earthquakes and flood events.

  10. Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

    2006-01-01

    Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions

  11. On Assessment and Estimation of Potential Losses due to Land Subsidence in Urban Areas of Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Andreas, Heri; Gumilar, Irwan; Sidiq, Teguh P.

    2016-04-01

    subsidence have also relation among each other, the accurate quantification of the potential losses caused by land subsidence in urban areas is not an easy task to accomplish. The direct losses can be easier to estimate than the indirect losses. For example, the direct losses due to land subsidence in Bandung was estimated to be at least 180 Million USD; but the indirect losses is still unknown.

  12. The Expected Loss in the Discretization of Multistage Stochastic Programming Problems - Estimation and Convergence Rate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 165, č. 1 (2009), s. 29-45 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : multistage stochastic programming problems * approximation * discretization * Monte Carlo Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.961, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-the expected loss in the discretization of multistage stochastic programming problems - estimation and convergence rate.pdf

  13. Regional economic activity and absenteeism: a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of employee productivity loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bankert, Brian; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Wells, Aaron

    2015-02-01

    This paper presents a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of health-related absenteeism. Productivity losses related to employee absenteeism have negative business implications for employers and these losses effectively deprive the business of an expected level of employee labor. The approach herein quantifies absenteeism cost using an output per labor hour-based method and extends employer-level results to the region. This new approach was applied to the employed population of 3 health insurance carriers. The economic cost of absenteeism was estimated to be $6.8 million, $0.8 million, and $0.7 million on average for the 3 employers; regional losses were roughly twice the magnitude of employer-specific losses. The new approach suggests that costs related to absenteeism for high output per labor hour industries exceed similar estimates derived from application of the human capital approach. The materially higher costs under the new approach emphasize the importance of accurately estimating productivity losses.

  14. Optical losses due to tracking error estimation for a low concentrating solar collector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sallaberry, Fabienne; García de Jalón, Alberto; Torres, José-Luis; Pujol-Nadal, Ramón

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A solar thermal collector with low concentration and one-axis tracking was tested. • A quasi-dynamic testing procedure for IAM was defined for tracking collector. • The adequation between the concentrator optics and the tracking was checked. • The maximum and long-term optical losses due to tracking error were calculated. - Abstract: The determination of the accuracy of a solar tracker used in domestic hot water solar collectors is not yet standardized. However, while using optical concentration devices, it is important to use a solar tracker with adequate precision with regard to the specific optical concentration factor. Otherwise, the concentrator would sustain high optical losses due to the inadequate focusing of the solar radiation onto its receiver, despite having a good quality. This study is focused on the estimation of long-term optical losses due to the tracking error of a low-temperature collector using low-concentration optics. For this purpose, a testing procedure for the incidence angle modifier on the tracking plane is proposed to determinate the acceptance angle of its concentrator even with different longitudinal incidence angles along the focal line plane. Then, the impact of maximum tracking error angle upon the optical efficiency has been determined. Finally, the calculation of the long-term optical error due to the tracking errors, using the design angular tracking error declared by the manufacturer, is carried out. The maximum tracking error calculated for this collector imply an optical loss of about 8.5%, which is high, but the average long-term optical loss calculated for one year was about 1%, which is reasonable for such collectors used for domestic hot water

  15. Estimation of break location and size for loss of coolant accidents using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Man Gyun; Shin, Sun Ho; Jung, Dong Won; Kim, Soong Pyung; Jeong, Ji Hwan; Lee, Byung Chul

    2004-01-01

    In this work, a probabilistic neural network (PNN) that has been applied well to the classification problems is used in order to identify the break locations of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) such as hot-leg, cold-leg and steam generator tubes. Also, a fuzzy neural network (FNN) is designed to estimate the break size. The inputs to PNN and FNN are time-integrated values obtained by integrating measurement signals during a short time interval after reactor scram. An automatic structure constructor for the fuzzy neural network automatically selects the input variables from the time-integrated values of many measured signals, and optimizes the number of rules and its related parameters. It is verified that the proposed algorithm identifies very well the break locations of LOCAs and also, estimate their break size accurately

  16. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  17. Fast state estimation subject to random data loss in discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahdi Alavi, S. M.; Saif, Mehrdad

    2013-12-01

    This paper focuses on the design of the standard observer in discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems subject to random data loss. By the assumption that the system response is incrementally bounded, two sufficient conditions are subsequently derived that guarantee exponential mean-square stability and fast convergence of the estimation error for the problem at hand. An efficient algorithm is also presented to obtain the observer gain. Finally, the proposed methodology is employed for monitoring the Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) via a wireless communication network. The effectiveness of the designed observer is extensively assessed by using an experimental tested-bed that has been fabricated for performance evaluation of the over wireless-network estimation techniques under realistic radio channel conditions.

  18. Estimation of fuel loss due to idling of vehicles at a signalized intersection in Chennai, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasantha Kumar, S.; Gulati, Himanshu; Arora, Shivam

    2017-11-01

    The vehicles while waiting at signalized intersections are generally found to be in idling condition, i.e., not switching off their vehicles during red times. This phenomenon of idling of vehicles during red times at signalized intersections may lead to huge economic loss as lot of fuel is consumed by vehicles when they are in idling condition. The situation may even be worse in countries like India as different vehicle types consume varying amount of fuel. Only limited studies have been reported on estimation of fuel loss due to idling of vehicles in India. In the present study, one of the busy intersections in Chennai, namely, Tidel Park Junction in Rajiv Gandhi salai was considered. Data collection was carried out in one approach road of the intersection during morning and evening peak hours on a typical working day by manually noting down the red timings of each cycle and the corresponding number of two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger cars, light commercial vehicles (LCV) and heavy motorized vehicles (HMV) that were in idling mode. Using the fuel consumption values of various vehicles types suggested by Central Road Research Institute (CRRI), the total fuel loss during the study period was found to be Rs. 4,93,849/-. The installation of red timers, synchronization of signals, use of non-motorized transport for short trips and public awareness are some of the measures which government need to focus to save the fuel wasted at signalized intersections in major cities of India.

  19. Oregon wildlife planning coordination project: Annual report, October 1, 1998 to September 30, 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, S.P.

    1999-01-01

    The intent of the Oregon Wildlife Planning Coordination project is to fund Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) staff to facilitate wildlife mitigation coordination and planning between Oregon wildlife managers. The primary goal of ODFW wildlife mitigation planning/coordination staff is to foster, facilitate, and manage a statewide cooperative wildlife mitigation planning and implementation effort between the Oregon wildlife managers (the Oregon Wildlife Coalition or OWC) to mitigate for wildlife losses in Oregon caused by the development and operation of the hydropower system

  20. Inverse modelling estimates of N2O surface emissions and stratospheric losses using a global dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Aalto, T.; Haszpra, L.; Meinhardt, F.; O'Doherty, S.; Moncrieff, J. B.; Popa, M.; Steinbacher, M.; Jordan, A.; Schuck, T. J.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Kort, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS), as it is a precursor of NO and NO2, which catalytically destroy ozone in the stratosphere. Recently, N2O emissions have been recognised as the most important ODS emissions and are now of greater importance than emissions of CFC's. The growth in atmospheric N2O is predominantly due to the enhancement of surface emissions by human activities. Most notably, the intensification and proliferation of agriculture since the mid-19th century, which has been accompanied by the increased input of reactive nitrogen to soils and has resulted in significant perturbations to the natural N-cycle and emissions of N2O. There exist two approaches for estimating N2O emissions, the so-called 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' approaches. Top-down approaches, based on the inversion of atmospheric measurements, require an estimate of the loss of N2O via photolysis and oxidation in the stratosphere. Uncertainties in the loss magnitude contribute uncertainties of 15 to 20% to the global annual surface emissions, complicating direct comparisons between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we present a novel inversion framework for the simultaneous optimization of N2O surface emissions and the magnitude of the loss, which avoids errors in the emissions due to incorrect assumptions about the lifetime of N2O. We use a Bayesian inversion with a variational formulation (based on 4D-Var) in order to handle very large datasets. N2O fluxes are retrieved at 4-weekly resolution over a global domain with a spatial resolution of 3.75° x 2.5° longitude by latitude. The efficacy of the simultaneous optimization of emissions and losses is tested using a global synthetic dataset, which mimics the available atmospheric data. Lastly, using real

  1. Economic Estimation of the Losses Caused by Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China From the Perspective of Water Bodies’ Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Yao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of surface water pollution accidents (abbreviated as SWPAs has increased substantially in China in recent years. Estimation of economic losses due to SWPAs has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Law of China promulgated in 2014. From the perspective of water bodies’ functions, pollution accident damages can be divided into eight types: damage to human health, water supply suspension, fishery, recreational functions, biological diversity, environmental property loss, the accident’s origin and other indirect losses. In the valuation of damage to people’s life, the procedure for compensation of traffic accidents in China was used. The functional replacement cost method was used in economic estimation of the losses due to water supply suspension and loss of water’s recreational functions. Damage to biological diversity was estimated by recovery cost analysis and damage to environmental property losses were calculated using pollutant removal costs. As a case study, using the proposed calculation procedure the economic losses caused by the major Songhuajiang River pollution accident that happened in China in 2005 have been estimated at 2263 billion CNY. The estimated economic losses for real accidents can sometimes be influenced by social and political factors, such as data authenticity and accuracy. Besides, one or more aspects in the method might be overestimated, underrated or even ignored. The proposed procedure may be used by decision makers for the economic estimation of losses in SWPAs. Estimates of the economic losses of pollution accidents could help quantify potential costs associated with increased risk sources along lakes/rivers but more importantly, highlight the value of clean water to society as a whole.

  2. Economic Estimation of the Losses Caused by Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China From the Perspective of Water Bodies’ Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; You, Zhen; Liu, Bo

    2016-01-01

    The number of surface water pollution accidents (abbreviated as SWPAs) has increased substantially in China in recent years. Estimation of economic losses due to SWPAs has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Law of China promulgated in 2014. From the perspective of water bodies’ functions, pollution accident damages can be divided into eight types: damage to human health, water supply suspension, fishery, recreational functions, biological diversity, environmental property loss, the accident’s origin and other indirect losses. In the valuation of damage to people’s life, the procedure for compensation of traffic accidents in China was used. The functional replacement cost method was used in economic estimation of the losses due to water supply suspension and loss of water’s recreational functions. Damage to biological diversity was estimated by recovery cost analysis and damage to environmental property losses were calculated using pollutant removal costs. As a case study, using the proposed calculation procedure the economic losses caused by the major Songhuajiang River pollution accident that happened in China in 2005 have been estimated at 2263 billion CNY. The estimated economic losses for real accidents can sometimes be influenced by social and political factors, such as data authenticity and accuracy. Besides, one or more aspects in the method might be overestimated, underrated or even ignored. The proposed procedure may be used by decision makers for the economic estimation of losses in SWPAs. Estimates of the economic losses of pollution accidents could help quantify potential costs associated with increased risk sources along lakes/rivers but more importantly, highlight the value of clean water to society as a whole. PMID:26805869

  3. Economic Estimation of the Losses Caused by Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China From the Perspective of Water Bodies' Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; You, Zhen; Liu, Bo

    2016-01-22

    The number of surface water pollution accidents (abbreviated as SWPAs) has increased substantially in China in recent years. Estimation of economic losses due to SWPAs has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Law of China promulgated in 2014. From the perspective of water bodies' functions, pollution accident damages can be divided into eight types: damage to human health, water supply suspension, fishery, recreational functions, biological diversity, environmental property loss, the accident's origin and other indirect losses. In the valuation of damage to people's life, the procedure for compensation of traffic accidents in China was used. The functional replacement cost method was used in economic estimation of the losses due to water supply suspension and loss of water's recreational functions. Damage to biological diversity was estimated by recovery cost analysis and damage to environmental property losses were calculated using pollutant removal costs. As a case study, using the proposed calculation procedure the economic losses caused by the major Songhuajiang River pollution accident that happened in China in 2005 have been estimated at 2263 billion CNY. The estimated economic losses for real accidents can sometimes be influenced by social and political factors, such as data authenticity and accuracy. Besides, one or more aspects in the method might be overestimated, underrated or even ignored. The proposed procedure may be used by decision makers for the economic estimation of losses in SWPAs. Estimates of the economic losses of pollution accidents could help quantify potential costs associated with increased risk sources along lakes/rivers but more importantly, highlight the value of clean water to society as a whole.

  4. ESTIMATING ANNUAL SOIL LOSS BY WATER EROSION IN THE MIDDLE PRUT PLAIN, REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TUDOR CASTRAVEŢ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Estimating annual soil loss by water erosion in the middle Prut Plain, Republic of Moldova. Modern technology has provided efficient tools such as advanced models and Geographic Information Systems to facilitate decision making for environmental management. Studies at this subject are available in literature, ranging from those that use a simple model such as USLE to others of a more sophisticated nature. In this study the model selected (modified Universal Soil Loss Equation – USLE and the case itself is kept simple due to significant limitations in data on land processes. An effective investigation of soil loss by using GIS – USLE integration requires spatially distributed data on several parameters describing the terrain surface. Such parameters include topography, rainfall characteristics, soil types, vegetation, land use, and the similar. In Republic of Moldova data on most of these parameters are collected often on a local or individual basis, and therefore, a well-organized regional or basin-wide database is not available. In the Republic of Moldova soil erosion is often as high as 30 tons/ha/year and more than 1.4*106 ha run a potential risk of erosion (Summer & Diernhof, 2003. The model estimated an annual quantity of soil eroded ranging over the Prut River tributaries watersheds between the mean values of 6.2 and 20.4 t/ha/yr. Much of the areas are within the range 10-20 t/ha/yr. The highest values of the quantity of eroded soil is carried out on strong inclined slopes corresponding to areas with agricultural lands and herbaceous vegetation. The results have shown that GIS can be effectively used to investigate critical regions within a basin with respect to erosion.

  5. Flood Damage and Loss Estimation for Iowa on Web-based Systems using HAZUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildirim, E.; Sermet, M. Y.; Demir, I.

    2016-12-01

    Importance of decision support systems for flood emergency response and loss estimation increases with its social and economic impacts. To estimate the damage of the flood, there are several software systems available to researchers and decision makers. HAZUS-MH is one of the most widely used desktop program, developed by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), to estimate economic loss and social impacts of disasters such as earthquake, hurricane and flooding (riverine and coastal). HAZUS used loss estimation methodology and implements through geographic information system (GIS). HAZUS contains structural, demographic, and vehicle information across United States. Thus, it allows decision makers to understand and predict possible casualties and damage of the floods by running flood simulations through GIS application. However, it doesn't represent real time conditions because of using static data. To close this gap, an overview of a web-based infrastructure coupling HAZUS and real time data provided by IFIS (Iowa Flood Information System) is presented by this research. IFIS is developed by the Iowa Flood Center, and a one-stop web-platform to access community-based flood conditions, forecasts, visualizations, inundation maps and flood-related data, information, and applications. Large volume of real-time observational data from a variety of sensors and remote sensing resources (radars, rain gauges, stream sensors, etc.) and flood inundation models are staged on a user-friendly maps environment that is accessible to the general public. Providing cross sectional analyses between HAZUS-MH and IFIS datasets, emergency managers are able to evaluate flood damage during flood events easier and more accessible in real time conditions. With matching data from HAZUS-MH census tract layer and IFC gauges, economical effects of flooding can be observed and evaluated by decision makers. The system will also provide visualization of the data by using augmented reality for

  6. Estimating annual soil carbon loss in agricultural peatland soils using a nitrogen budget approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, Emilie R; van Kessel, Chris; Horwath, William R; Linquist, Bruce A

    2015-01-01

    Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM) oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa) production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 - 4 % combined). Shallow groundwater contributed 24 - 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 - 81 % of plant N uptake (129 - 149 kg N ha-1) was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 - 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 - 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices.

  7. Estimating annual soil carbon loss in agricultural peatland soils using a nitrogen budget approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilie R Kirk

    Full Text Available Around the world, peatland degradation and soil subsidence is occurring where these soils have been converted to agriculture. Since initial drainage in the mid-1800s, continuous farming of such soils in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta has led to subsidence of up to 8 meters in places, primarily due to soil organic matter (SOM oxidation and physical compaction. Rice (Oryza sativa production has been proposed as an alternative cropping system to limit SOM oxidation. Preliminary research on these soils revealed high N uptake by rice in N fertilizer omission plots, which we hypothesized was the result of SOM oxidation releasing N. Testing this hypothesis, we developed a novel N budgeting approach to assess annual soil C and N loss based on plant N uptake and fallow season N mineralization. Through field experiments examining N dynamics during growing season and winter fallow periods, a complete annual N budget was developed. Soil C loss was calculated from SOM-N mineralization using the soil C:N ratio. Surface water and crop residue were negligible in the total N uptake budget (3 - 4 % combined. Shallow groundwater contributed 24 - 33 %, likely representing subsurface SOM-N mineralization. Assuming 6 and 25 kg N ha-1 from atmospheric deposition and biological N2 fixation, respectively, our results suggest 77 - 81 % of plant N uptake (129 - 149 kg N ha-1 was supplied by SOM mineralization. Considering a range of N uptake efficiency from 50 - 70 %, estimated net C loss ranged from 1149 - 2473 kg C ha-1. These findings suggest that rice systems, as currently managed, reduce the rate of C loss from organic delta soils relative to other agricultural practices.

  8. Measuring the economic value of wildlife: a caution

    Science.gov (United States)

    T. H. Stevens

    1992-01-01

    Wildlife values appear to be very sensitive to whether species are evaluated separately or together, and value estimates often seem inconsistent with neoclassical economic theory. Wildlife value estimates must therefore be used with caution. Additional research about the nature of individual value structures for wildlife is needed.

  9. Estimating Losses from Volcanic Ash in case of a Mt. Baekdu Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Soonyoung; Yoon, Seong-Min; Kim, Sung-Wook; Choi, Eun-Kyeong

    2014-05-01

    We will present the preliminary result of economic losses in South Korea in case of a Mt. Baedu eruption. The Korean peninsula has Mt. Baekdu in North Korea, which will soon enter an active phase, according to volcanologists. The anticipated eruption will be explosive given the viscous and grassy silica-rich magma, and is expected to be one of the largest in recent millennia. We aim to assess the impacts of this eruption to South Korea and help government prepare for the volcanic disasters. In particular, the economic impact from volcanic ash is estimated given the distance from Mt. Baedu to South Korea. In order to scientifically estimate losses from volcanic ash, we need volcanic ash thickness, inventory database, and damage functions between ash thickness and damage ratios for each inventory item. We use the volcanic ash thickness calculated by other research groups in Korea, and they estimated the ash thickness for each eruption scenario using average wind fields. Damage functions are built using the historical damage data in the world, and inventory database is obtained from available digital maps in Korea. According to the preliminary results, the economic impact from volcanic ash is not significant because the ash is rarely deposited in South Korea under general weather conditions. However, the ash can impact human health and environment. Also worst case scenarios can have the significant economic impacts in Korea, and may result in global issues. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-3] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

  10. A pragmatic method for estimating seepage losses for small reservoirs with application in rural India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblinger, Jennifer A.; Moysey, Stephen M. J.; Ravindrinath, Rangoori; Guha, Chiranjit

    2010-05-01

    SummaryThe informal construction of small dams to capture runoff and artificially recharge ground water is a widespread strategy for dealing with water scarcity. A lack of technical capacity for the formal characterization of these systems, however, is often an impediment to the implementation of effective watershed management practices. Monitoring changes in reservoir storage provides a conceptually simple approach to quantify seepage, but does not account for the losses occurring when seepage is balanced by inflows to the reservoir and the stage remains approximately constant. To overcome this problem we evaluate whether a physically-based volume balance model that explicitly represents watershed processes, including reservoir inflows, can be constrained by a limited set of data readily collected by non-experts, specifically records of reservoir stage, rainfall, and evaporation. To assess the impact of parameter non-uniqueness associated with the calibration of the non-linear model, we perform a Monte Carlo analysis to quantify uncertainty in the total volume of water contributed to the subsurface by the 2007 monsoon for a dam located in the Deccan basalts near the village of Salri in Madhya Pradesh, India. The Monte Carlo analysis demonstrated that subsurface losses from the reservoir could be constrained with the available data, but additional measurements are required to constrain reservoir inflows. Our estimate of seepage from the reservoir (7.0 ± 0.6 × 10 4 m 3) is 3.5 times greater than the recharge volume estimated by considering reservoir volume changes alone. This result suggests that artificial recharge could be significantly underestimated when reservoir inflows are not explicitly included in models. Our seepage estimate also accounts for about 11% of rainfall occurring upstream of the dam and is comparable in magnitude to natural ground water recharge, thereby indicating that the reservoir plays a significant role in the hydrology of this small

  11. Spatial Data Mining for Estimating Cover Management Factor of Universal Soil Loss Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, F.; Lin, T. C.; Chiang, S. H.; Chen, W. W.

    2016-12-01

    Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is a widely used mathematical model that describes long-term soil erosion processes. Among the six different soil erosion risk factors of USLE, the cover-management factor (C-factor) is related to land-cover/land-use. The value of C-factor ranges from 0.001 to 1, so it alone might cause a thousandfold difference in a soil erosion analysis using USLE. The traditional methods for the estimation of USLE C-factor include in situ experiments, soil physical parameter models, USLE look-up tables with land use maps, and regression models between vegetation indices and C-factors. However, these methods are either difficult or too expensive to implement in large areas. In addition, the values of C-factor obtained using these methods can not be updated frequently, either. To address this issue, this research developed a spatial data mining approach to estimate the values of C-factor with assorted spatial datasets for a multi-temporal (2004 to 2008) annual soil loss analysis of a reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan. The idea is to establish the relationship between the USLE C-factor and spatial data consisting of vegetation indices and texture features extracted from satellite images, soil and geology attributes, digital elevation model, road and river distribution etc. A decision tree classifier was used to rank influential conditional attributes in the preliminary data mining. Then, factor simplification and separation were considered to optimize the model and the random forest classifier was used to analyze 9 simplified factor groups. Experimental results indicate that the overall accuracy of the data mining model is about 79% with a kappa value of 0.76. The estimated soil erosion amounts in 2004-2008 according to the data mining results are about 50.39 - 74.57 ton/ha-year after applying the sediment delivery ratio and correction coefficient. Comparing with estimations calculated with C-factors from look-up tables, the soil erosion

  12. Bayesian Estimation of Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution Using Extension of Jeffreys' Prior Information with Three Loss Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Bambey Guure

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Weibull distribution has been observed as one of the most useful distribution, for modelling and analysing lifetime data in engineering, biology, and others. Studies have been done vigorously in the literature to determine the best method in estimating its parameters. Recently, much attention has been given to the Bayesian estimation approach for parameters estimation which is in contention with other estimation methods. In this paper, we examine the performance of maximum likelihood estimator and Bayesian estimator using extension of Jeffreys prior information with three loss functions, namely, the linear exponential loss, general entropy loss, and the square error loss function for estimating the two-parameter Weibull failure time distribution. These methods are compared using mean square error through simulation study with varying sample sizes. The results show that Bayesian estimator using extension of Jeffreys' prior under linear exponential loss function in most cases gives the smallest mean square error and absolute bias for both the scale parameter α and the shape parameter β for the given values of extension of Jeffreys' prior.

  13. Rainwater Wildlife Area Management Plan : Executive Summary.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Childs, Allen B.; Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation in Oregon.

    2002-02-01

    The purpose of the project is to protect, enhance, and mitigate fish and wildlife resources impacted by Columbia River Basin hydroelectric development. The effort is one of several wildlife mitigation projects in the region developed to compensate for terrestrial habitat losses resulting from the construction of McNary and John Day Hydroelectric facilities located on the mainstem Columbia River. While this project is driven primarily by the purpose and need to mitigate for wildlife habitat losses, it is also recognized that management strategies will also benefit many other non-target fish and wildlife species and associated natural resources. The Northwest Power Act directs the NPPC to develop a program to ''protect, mitigate, and enhance'' fish and wildlife of the Columbia River and its tributaries. The overarching goals include: A Columbia River ecosystem that sustains an abundant, productive, and diverse community of fish and wildlife; Mitigation across the basin for the adverse effects to fish and wildlife caused by the development and operation of the hydrosystem; Sufficient populations of fish and wildlife for abundant opportunities for tribal trust and treaty right harvest and for non-tribal harvest; and Recovery of the fish and wildlife affected by the development and operation of the hydrosystem that are listed under the Endangered Species Act.

  14. Novel point estimation from a semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE): long-term health outcomes from short-term linear data, with application to weight loss in obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman-Miller, Deborah

    2013-11-02

    Point estimation is particularly important in predicting weight loss in individuals or small groups. In this analysis, a new health response function is based on a model of human response over time to estimate long-term health outcomes from a change point in short-term linear regression. This important estimation capability is addressed for small groups and single-subject designs in pilot studies for clinical trials, medical and therapeutic clinical practice. These estimations are based on a change point given by parameters derived from short-term participant data in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The development of the change point in initial OLS data and the point estimations are given in a new semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE) model. The new response function is taken as a ratio of two-parameter Weibull distributions times a prior outcome value that steps estimated outcomes forward in time, where the shape and scale parameters are estimated at the change point. The Weibull distributions used in this ratio are derived from a Kelvin model in mechanics taken here to represent human beings. A distinct feature of the SPRE model in this article is that initial treatment response for a small group or a single subject is reflected in long-term response to treatment. This model is applied to weight loss in obesity in a secondary analysis of data from a classic weight loss study, which has been selected due to the dramatic increase in obesity in the United States over the past 20 years. A very small relative error of estimated to test data is shown for obesity treatment with the weight loss medication phentermine or placebo for the test dataset. An application of SPRE in clinical medicine or occupational therapy is to estimate long-term weight loss for a single subject or a small group near the beginning of treatment.

  15. Agricultural intensification : saving space for wildlife?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baudron, F.

    2011-01-01

    Key words: agricultural frontier; smallholder; intensification; semi-arid area; wildlife; conservation agriculture; cotton; Zimbabwe.

    Increasing agricultural production and preventing further losses in biodiversity are both legitimate objectives, but they compete strongly in the

  16. Rainwater Wildlife Area Habitat Evaluation Procedures Report; A Columbia Basin Wildlife Mitigation Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Childs, Allen B.

    2004-01-01

    The 8,768 acre Rainwater Wildlife Area was acquired in September 1998 by the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (CTUIR) through an agreement with Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) to partially offset habitat losses associated with construction of the John Day and McNary hydroelectric facilities on the mainstem Columbia River. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) were used to determine the number of habitat units credited to BPA for acquired lands. Upland and riparian forest, upland and riparian shrub, and grassland cover types are evaluated in this study. Targeted wildlife species include downy woodpecker (Picoides pubescens), black-capped chickadee (Parus atricopillus), blue grouse (Dendragapus obscurus), great blue heron (Ardea herodias), yellow warbler (Dendroica petechia), mink (Mustela vison), and Western meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta). Habitat surveys were conducted in 1998 and 1999 in accordance with published HEP protocols and included 65,300, 594m{sup 2}2 plots, and 112 one-tenth-acre plots. Between 153.3 and 7,187.46 acres were evaluated for each target wildlife mitigation species. Derived habitat suitability indices were multiplied by corresponding cover-type acreages to determine the number of habitat units for each species. The total baseline habitat units credited to BPA for the Rainwater Wildlife Area and its seven target species is 5,185.3 habitat units. Factors limiting habitat suitability are related to the direct, indirect, and cumulative effects of past livestock grazing, road construction, and timber harvest which have simplified the structure, composition, and diversity of native plant communities. Alternatives for protecting and improving habitat suitability include exclusion of livestock grazing, road de-commissioning/obliteration, reforestation and thinning, control of competing and unwanted vegetation (including noxious weeds), reestablishing displaced or reduced native

  17. Magnetic resonance measurement of turbulent kinetic energy for the estimation of irreversible pressure loss in aortic stenosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyverfeldt, Petter; Hope, Michael D; Tseng, Elaine E; Saloner, David

    2013-01-01

    The authors sought to measure the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the ascending aorta of patients with aortic stenosis and to assess its relationship to irreversible pressure loss. Irreversible pressure loss caused by energy dissipation in post-stenotic flow is an important determinant of the hemodynamic significance of aortic stenosis. The simplified Bernoulli equation used to estimate pressure gradients often misclassifies the ventricular overload caused by aortic stenosis. The current gold standard for estimation of irreversible pressure loss is catheterization, but this method is rarely used due to its invasiveness. Post-stenotic pressure loss is largely caused by dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy into heat. Recent developments in magnetic resonance flow imaging permit noninvasive estimation of TKE. The study was approved by the local ethics review board and all subjects gave written informed consent. Three-dimensional cine magnetic resonance flow imaging was used to measure TKE in 18 subjects (4 normal volunteers, 14 patients with aortic stenosis with and without dilation). For each subject, the peak total TKE in the ascending aorta was compared with a pressure loss index. The pressure loss index was based on a previously validated theory relating pressure loss to measures obtainable by echocardiography. The total TKE did not appear to be related to global flow patterns visualized based on magnetic resonance-measured velocity fields. The TKE was significantly higher in patients with aortic stenosis than in normal volunteers (p < 0.001). The peak total TKE in the ascending aorta was strongly correlated to index pressure loss (R(2) = 0.91). Peak total TKE in the ascending aorta correlated strongly with irreversible pressure loss estimated by a well-established method. Direct measurement of TKE by magnetic resonance flow imaging may, with further validation, be used to estimate irreversible pressure loss in aortic stenosis. Copyright © 2013 American

  18. Sound absorption coefficient in situ: an alternative for estimating soil loss factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Rosane; Meletti de Abreu, Marco Henrique; Okada, Rafael Yuri; Soares, Paulo Fernando; GranhenTavares, Célia Regina

    2015-01-01

    The relationship between the sound absorption coefficient and factors of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was determined in a section of the Maringá Stream basin, Paraná State, by using erosion plots. In the field, four erosion plots were built on a reduced scale, with dimensions of 2.0×12.5m. With respect to plot coverage, one was kept with bare soil and the others contained forage grass (Brachiaria), corn and wheat crops, respectively. Planting was performed without any type of conservation practice in an area with a 9% slope. A sedimentation tank was placed at the end of each plot to collect the material transported. For the acoustic system, pink noise was used in the measurement of the proposed monitoring, for collecting information on incident and reflected sound pressure levels. In general, obtained values of soil loss confirmed that 94.3% of material exported to the basin water came from the bare soil plot, 2.8% from the corn plot, 1.8% from the wheat plot, and 1.1% from the forage grass plot. With respect to the acoustic monitoring, results indicated that at 16kHz erosion plot coverage type had a significant influence on the sound absorption coefficient. High correlation coefficients were found in estimations of the A and C factors of the USLE, confirming that the acoustic technique is feasible for the determination of soil loss directly in the field. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Leakage Detection and Estimation Algorithm for Loss Reduction in Water Piping Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazeem B. Adedeji

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Water loss through leaking pipes constitutes a major challenge to the operational service of water utilities. In recent years, increasing concern about the financial loss and environmental pollution caused by leaking pipes has been driving the development of efficient algorithms for detecting leakage in water piping networks. Water distribution networks (WDNs are disperse in nature with numerous number of nodes and branches. Consequently, identifying the segment(s of the network and the exact leaking pipelines connected to this segment(s where higher background leakage outflow occurs is a challenging task. Background leakage concerns the outflow from small cracks or deteriorated joints. In addition, because they are diffuse flow, they are not characterised by quick pressure drop and are not detectable by measuring instruments. Consequently, they go unreported for a long period of time posing a threat to water loss volume. Most of the existing research focuses on the detection and localisation of burst type leakages which are characterised by a sudden pressure drop. In this work, an algorithm for detecting and estimating background leakage in water distribution networks is presented. The algorithm integrates a leakage model into a classical WDN hydraulic model for solving the network leakage flows. The applicability of the developed algorithm is demonstrated on two different water networks. The results of the tested networks are discussed and the solutions obtained show the benefits of the proposed algorithm. A noteworthy evidence is that the algorithm permits the detection of critical segments or pipes of the network experiencing higher leakage outflow and indicates the probable pipes of the network where pressure control can be performed. However, the possible position of pressure control elements along such critical pipes will be addressed in future work.

  20. National-scale estimation of gross forest aboveground carbon loss: a case study of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyukavina, A; Potapov, P V; Turubanova, S A; Hansen, M C; Stehman, S V; Baccini, A; Goetz, S J; Laporte, N T; Houghton, R A

    2013-01-01

    Recent advances in remote sensing enable the mapping and monitoring of carbon stocks without relying on extensive in situ measurements. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is among the countries where national forest inventories (NFI) are either non-existent or out of date. Here we demonstrate a method for estimating national-scale gross forest aboveground carbon (AGC) loss and associated uncertainties using remotely sensed-derived forest cover loss and biomass carbon density data. Lidar data were used as a surrogate for NFI plot measurements to estimate carbon stocks and AGC loss based on forest type and activity data derived using time-series multispectral imagery. Specifically, DRC forest type and loss from the FACET (Forêts d’Afrique Centrale Evaluées par Télédétection) product, created using Landsat data, were related to carbon data derived from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Validation data for FACET forest area loss were created at a 30-m spatial resolution and compared to the 60-m spatial resolution FACET map. We produced two gross AGC loss estimates for the DRC for the last decade (2000–2010): a map-scale estimate (53.3 ± 9.8 Tg C yr −1 ) accounting for whole-pixel classification errors in the 60-m resolution FACET forest cover change product, and a sub-grid estimate (72.1 ± 12.7 Tg C yr −1 ) that took into account 60-m cells that experienced partial forest loss. Our sub-grid forest cover and AGC loss estimates, which included smaller-scale forest disturbances, exceed published assessments. Results raise the issue of scale in forest cover change mapping and validation, and subsequent impacts on remotely sensed carbon stock change estimation, particularly for smallholder dominated systems such as the DRC. (letter)

  1. An Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Losses during the 1980s. Appendix K

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, Robert M.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Shia, Run-Lie; Yang, Yajaing; Zhou, Shuntai; Molnar, Gyula

    1997-01-01

    In order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979-90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: 1) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface-troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depiction and the model's 2 x CO, climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.

  2. A quantitative model for estimating mean annual soil loss in cultivated land using 137Cs measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Hao; Zhao Qiguo; Du Mingyuan; Minami, Katsuyuki; Hatta, Tamao

    2000-01-01

    The radioisotope 137 Cs has been widely used to determine rates of cultivated soil loss, Many calibration relationships (including both empirical relationships and theoretical models) have been employed to estimate erosion rates from the amount of 137 Cs lost from the cultivated soil profile. However, there are important limitations which restrict the reliability of these models, which consider only the uniform distribution of 137 Cs in the plough layer and the depth. As a result, erosion rates they may be overestimated or underestimated. This article presents a quantitative model for the relation the amount of 137 Cs lost from the cultivate soil profile and the rate of soil erosion. According to a mass balance model, during the construction of this model we considered the following parameters: the remaining fraction of the surface enrichment layer (F R ), the thickness of the surface enrichment layer (H s ), the depth of the plough layer (H p ), input fraction of the total 137 Cs fallout deposition during a given year t (F t ), radioactive decay of 137 Cs (k), and sampling year (t). The simulation results showed that the amounts of erosion rates estimated using this model were very sensitive to changes in the values of the parameters F R , H s , and H p . We also observed that the relationship between the rate of soil loss and 137 Cs depletion is neither linear nor logarithmic, and is very complex. Although the model is an improvement over existing approaches to derive calibration relationships for cultivated soil, it requires empirical information on local soil properties and the behavior of 137 Cs in the soil profile. There is clearly still a need for more precise information on the latter aspect and, in particular, on the retention of 137 Cs fallout in the top few millimeters of the soil profile and on the enrichment and depletion effects associated with soil redistribution (i.e. for determining accurate values of F R and H s ). (author)

  3. Conservatism of loss-of-coolant accident licensing analysis compared to experimental results and best-estimate calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, F.; Friedmann, P.

    1986-01-01

    The paper compares results of loss-of-coolant accident licensing analysis with experimental results and results of best-estimate calculations. The large safety margins resulting from the more realistic best-estimate results are used to show the high conservatism inherent in the licensing process of pressurized water reactors. (orig.) [de

  4. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Ineke; Verschuure, Hans; van der Ploeg, Catharina P B; Brug, Johannes; Raat, Hein

    2010-06-01

    We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. In 2007, 1512 adolescents (aged 12-19 years) in Dutch secondary schools completed questionnaires about their music-listening behavior and whether they experienced hearing-related symptoms after listening to high-volume music. We used their self-reported data in conjunction with published average sound levels of music players, discotheques, and pop concerts to estimate their noise exposure, and we compared that exposure to our own "loosened" (i.e., less strict) version of current European safety standards for occupational noise exposure. About half of the adolescents exceeded safety standards for occupational noise exposure. About one third of the respondents exceeded safety standards solely as a result of listening to MP3 players. Hearing symptoms that occurred after using an MP3 player or going to a discotheque were associated with exposure to high-volume music. Adolescents often exceeded current occupational safety standards for noise exposure, highlighting the need for specific safety standards for leisure-time noise exposure.

  5. Wildlife Protection, Mitigation and Enhancement Planning for Grand Coulee Dam, Final Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Creveling, Jennifer

    1986-08-01

    The development and operation of Grand Coulee Dam inundated approximately 70,000 acres of wildlife habitat under the jurisdictions of the Colville Confederated Tribes, the Spokane Tribe, and the State of Washington. Under the provisions of the Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act of 1980, this study reviews losses to wildlife and habitat, and proposes mitigation for those losses. Wildlife loss estimates were developed from information available in the literature. Habitat losses and potential habitat gains through mitigation were estimated by a modified Habitat Evaluation Procedure. The mitigation plan proposes (1) acquisition of sufficient land or management rights to land to protect Habitat Units equivalent to those lost (approximately 73,000 acres of land would be required), (2) improvement and management of those lands to obtain and perpetuate target Habitat Units, and (3) protection and enhancement of suitable habitat for bald eagles. Mitigation is presented as four actions to be implemented over a 10-year period. A monitoring program is proposed to monitor mitigation success in terms of Habitat Units and wildlife population trends.

  6. Estimation of loss of 40K during different cooking procedures of rice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aparna, K.R.; Karunakara, N.; Selvi, B.S.; Joshi, R.M.; Ravi, P.M.

    2008-01-01

    The present regulations on toxic element intake is based on the assumption that 100% of the toxin present in raw materials such as cereals, pulses and vegetables are taken up by human being through ingestion. This is not realistic because of the fact that many of the toxic materials are lost during various cooking processes such as washing, peeling, etc. In order to take into account the loss of radionuclide during cooking, some of the regulatory agencies use Retention Factors (F r ) and Processing Efficiencies (P e ) for impact assessment. In Karnataka, rice is the major dietary item and the cooking procedure varies from place to place. This paper presents the results of estimation of F r and P e for two types of cooking procedures of raw rice and boiled rice commonly used in Karnataka. 40 K is used as tracer in the present study because of its natural abundance, easy detection by gamma ray spectrometry and chemical resemblance with 137 Cs. The concentration of 40 K in raw and processed food was estimated by gamma ray spectrometry using an HPGe detector and F r and P e were estimated. The value of F r ranges from 0.6 to 0.85 and 0.41 to 0.72 for raw rice and boiled rice respectively. Similarly, the values of P e vary from 0.9 to 1 for both types of rice. In the absence of site-specific data for 137 Cs, this data can be used for calculation of 137 Cs in cooked rice during accidental conditions of nuclear installations. (author)

  7. A simulation of Earthquake Loss Estimation in Southeastern Korea using HAZUS and the local site classification Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S.; Kim, K.

    2013-12-01

    Regionally varying seismic hazards can be estimated using an earthquake loss estimation system (e.g. HAZUS-MH). The estimations for actual earthquakes help federal and local authorities develop rapid, effective recovery measures. Estimates for scenario earthquakes help in designing a comprehensive earthquake hazard mitigation plan. Local site characteristics influence the ground motion. Although direct measurements are desirable to construct a site-amplification map, such data are expensive and time consuming to collect. Thus we derived a site classification map of the southern Korean Peninsula using geologic and geomorphologic data, which are readily available for the entire southern Korean Peninsula. Class B sites (mainly rock) are predominant in the area, although localized areas of softer soils are found along major rivers and seashores. The site classification map is compared with independent site classification studies to confirm our site classification map effectively represents the local behavior of site amplification during an earthquake. We then estimated the losses due to a magnitude 6.7 scenario earthquake in Gyeongju, southeastern Korea, with and without the site classification map. Significant differences in loss estimates were observed. The loss without the site classification map decreased without variation with increasing epicentral distance, while the loss with the site classification map varied from region to region, due to both the epicentral distance and local site effects. The major cause of the large loss expected in Gyeongju is the short epicentral distance. Pohang Nam-Gu is located farther from the earthquake source region. Nonetheless, the loss estimates in the remote city are as large as those in Gyeongju and are attributed to the site effect of soft soil found widely in the area.

  8. Economic Benefits, Conservation and Wildlife Tourism

    OpenAIRE

    Tisdell, Clement A.

    2012-01-01

    Different economic methods are being used to estimate the economic benefits generated by nature (wildlife) tourism. The most prominent of these are economic valuation analysis and economic impact analysis. These methods often provide divergent and conflicting estimates of the economic benefits obtained from wildlife tourism, as is demonstrated in this article by the use of a microeconomic model. Tourism Research Australia has estimated the economic benefits to Australia of nature tourism base...

  9. A Modified Gash Model for Estimating Rainfall Interception Loss of Forest Using Remote Sensing Observations at Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaokui Cui

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall interception loss of forest is an important component of water balance in a forested ecosystem. The Gash analytical model has been widely used to estimate the forest interception loss at field scale. In this study, we proposed a simple model to estimate rainfall interception loss of heterogeneous forest at regional scale with several reasonable assumptions using remote sensing observations. The model is a modified Gash analytical model using easily measured parameters of forest structure from satellite data and extends the original Gash model from point-scale to the regional scale. Preliminary results, using remote sensing data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS products, field measured rainfall data, and meteorological data of the Automatic Weather Station (AWS over a picea crassifolia forest in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China, showed reasonable accuracy in estimating rainfall interception loss at both the Dayekou experimental site (R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 0.34 mm∙d −1 and the Pailugou experimental site (R2 = 0.82, RMSE = 0.6 mm∙d −1, compared with ground measurements based on per unit area of forest. The interception loss map of the study area was shown to be strongly heterogeneous. The modified model has robust physics and is insensitive to the input parameters, according to the sensitivity analysis using numerical simulations. The modified model appears to be stable and easy to be applied for operational estimation of interception loss over large areas.

  10. Soil loss estimation and prioritization of sub-watersheds of Kali River basin, Karnataka, India, using RUSLE and GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markose, Vipin Joseph; Jayappa, K S

    2016-04-01

    Most of the mountainous regions in tropical humid climatic zone experience severe soil loss due to natural factors. In the absence of measured data, modeling techniques play a crucial role for quantitative estimation of soil loss in such regions. The objective of this research work is to estimate soil loss and prioritize the sub-watersheds of Kali River basin using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. Various thematic layers of RUSLE factors such as rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), topographic factor (LS), crop management factor (C), and support practice factor (P) have been prepared by using multiple spatial and non-spatial data sets. These layers are integrated in geographic information system (GIS) environment and estimated the soil loss. The results show that ∼42 % of the study area falls under low erosion risk and only 6.97 % area suffer from very high erosion risk. Based on the rate of soil loss, 165 sub-watersheds have been prioritized into four categories-very high, high, moderate, and low erosion risk. Anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, construction of dams, and rapid urbanization are the main reasons for high rate of soil loss in the study area. The soil erosion rate and prioritization maps help in implementation of a proper watershed management plan for the river basin.

  11. Estimating grain yield losses caused by septoria leaf blotch on durum wheat in Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samia Berraies

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Septoria leaf blotch (SLB, caused by Zymoseptoria tritici (Desm. Quaedvlieg & Crous, 2011 (teleomorph: Mycosphaerella graminicola (Fuckel J. Schrot., is an important wheat disease in the Mediterranean region. In Tunisia, SLB has become a major disease of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp. durum [Desf.] Husn. particularly during favorable growing seasons where significant yield losses and increase of fungicides use were recorded over the last three decades. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of SLB severity on grain yield of new elite durum wheat breeding lines and to measure the relative effect of fungicide control on grain yield. Experiments were conducted during 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 cropping seasons. A set of 800 breeding lines were screened for reaction to SLB under natural infection at Beja research station. To estimate the disease effect, correlation between disease severity at early grain filling stage and grain yield was performed. Results showed that susceptible varieties yield was significantly reduced by SLB. Average yield reduction was as high as 384 and 325 kg ha-1 for every increment in disease severity on a 0-9 scale in both seasons, respectively. A negative correlation coefficient varied between -0.61 and -0.66 in both seasons. Treated and untreated trials conducted during 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 showed that yield of treated plots increased by 50% on the commonly cultivated susceptible varieties. The results of this investigation suggested that septoria incidence is related to large grain yield losses particularly on susceptible high yielding cultivars. However, appropriate fungicide application at booting growth stage could be beneficial for farmers. The development and use of more effective fungicide could be sought to alleviate the disease effects and therefore could be considered as a part of the integrated pest management and responsible use strategy on septoria leaf blotch in Tunisia.

  12. Estimating fish exploitation and aquatic habitat loss across diffuse inland recreational fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kerckhove, Derrick Tupper; Minns, Charles Kenneth; Chu, Cindy

    2015-01-01

    The current state of many freshwater fish stocks worldwide is largely unknown but suspected to be vulnerable to exploitation from recreational fisheries and habitat degradation. Both these factors, combined with complex ecological dynamics and the diffuse nature of inland fisheries could lead to an invisible collapse: the drastic decline in fish stocks without great public or management awareness. In this study we provide a method to address the pervasive knowledge gaps in regional rates of exploitation and habitat degradation, and demonstrate its use in one of North America's largest and most diffuse recreational freshwater fisheries (Ontario, Canada). We estimated that (1) fish stocks were highly exploited and in apparent danger of collapse in management zones close to large population centres, and (2) fish habitat was under a low but constant threat of degradation at rates comparable to deforestation in Ontario and throughout Canada. These findings confirm some commonly held, but difficult to quantify, beliefs in inland fisheries management but also provide some further insights including (1) large anthropogenic projects greater than one hectare could contribute much more to fish habitat loss on an area basis than the cumulative effect of smaller projects within one year, (2) hooking mortality from catch-and-release fisheries is likely a greater source of mortality than the harvest itself, and (3) in most northern management zones over 50% of the fisheries resources are not yet accessible to anglers. While this model primarily provides a framework to prioritize management decisions and further targeted stock assessments, we note that our regional estimates of fisheries productivity and exploitation were similar to broadscale monitoring efforts by the Province of Ontario. We discuss the policy implications from our results and extending the model to other jurisdictions and countries.

  13. Estimated loss of juvenile salmonids to predation by northern squawfish, walleyes, and smallmouth bass in John Day Reservoir, Columbia River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rieman, B.E.; Beamesderfer, R.C.; Vigg, S.; Poe, T.P.

    1991-01-01

    The authors estimated the loss of juvenile salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. to predation by northern squawfish Ptychocheilus oregonensis, walleyes Stizostedion vitreum, and smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in John Day Reservoir during 1983-1986. Their estimates were based on measures of daily prey consumption, predator numbers, and numbers of juvenile salmonids entering the reservoir during the April-August period of migration. They estimated the mean annual loss was 2.7 million juvenile salmonids. Northern squawfish were responsible for 78% of the total loss; walleyes accounted for 13% and smallmouth bass for 9%. Twenty-one percent of the loss occurred in a small area immediately below McNary Dam at the head of John Day Reservoir. The authors estimated that the three predator species consumed 14% of all juvenile salmonids that entered the reservoir. Mortality changed by month and increased late in the migration season. Monthly mortality estimates ranged from 7% in June and 61% in August. Mortality from predation was highest for chinook salmon O. tshawytscha, which migrated in July and August. Despite uncertainties in the estimates, it is clear that predation by resident fish predators can easily account for previously explained mortality of out-migrating juvenile salmonids. Alteration of the Columbia River by dams and a decline in the number of salmonids could have increased the fraction of mortality caused by predation over what is was in the past

  14. A Simple Estimation of Coupling Loss Factors for Two Flexible Subsystems Connected via Discrete Interfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple formula is proposed to estimate the Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA coupling loss factors (CLFs for two flexible subsystems connected via discrete interfaces. First, the dynamic interactions between two discretely connected subsystems are described as a set of intermodal coupling stiffness terms. It is then found that if both subsystems are of high modal density and meanwhile the interface points all act independently, the intermodal dynamic couplings become dominated by only those between different subsystem mode sets. If ensemble- and frequency-averaged, the intermodal coupling stiffness terms can simply reduce to a function of the characteristic dynamic properties of each subsystem and the subsystem mass, as well as the number of interface points. The results can thus be accommodated within the theoretical frame of conventional SEA theory to yield a simple CLF formula. Meanwhile, the approach allows the weak coupling region between the two SEA subsystems to be distinguished simply and explicitly. The consistency and difference of the present technique with and from the traditional wave-based SEA solutions are discussed. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the good performance of the present technique.

  15. A methodology for the estimation of the radiological consequences of a Loss of Coolant Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kereszturi, Andras; Brolly, Aron; Panka, Istvan; Pazmandi, Tamas; Trosztel, Istvan [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). MTA EK, Centre for Energy Research

    2017-09-15

    For calculation of the radiological consequences of Large Break Loss of Coolant (LBLOCA) events, a set of various computer codes modeling the corresponding physical processes, disciplines and their appropriate subsequent data exchange are necessary. For demonstrating the methodology applied in MTA EK, a LBLOCA event at shut down reactor state - when only limited configuration of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) is available - was selected. In this special case, fission gas release from a number of fuel pins is obtained from the analyses. This paper describes the initiating event and the corresponding thermal hydraulic calculations and the further physical processes, the necessary models and computer codes and their connections. Additionally the applied conservative assumptions and the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (B+U) evaluation applied for characterizing the pin power and burnup distribution in the core are presented. Also, the fuel behavior processes. Finally, the newly developed methodology to predict whether the fuel pins are getting in-hermetic or not is described and the the results of the activity transport and dose calculations are shown.

  16. Trapped sweat in basketball uniforms and the effect on sweat loss estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Lindsay B; Reimel, Adam J; Sopeña, Bridget C; Barnes, Kelly A; Nuccio, Ryan P; De Chavez, Peter John D; Stofan, John R; Carter, James M

    2017-09-01

    The aims of this study were to determine: (1) trapped sweat (TS) in basketball uniforms and the effect on sweat loss (SL) estimates during a laboratory-based basketball simulation protocol; (2) the impact of exercise intensity, body mass, age, and SL on TS; and (3) TS during on-court training to assess the ecological validity of the laboratory-based results. Twenty-four recreational/competitive male basketball players (23 ± 10 years, 77.0 ± 16.7 kg) completed three randomized laboratory-based trials (Low, Moderate, and High intensity) consisting of 150-min intermittent exercise. Eighteen elite male players (23 ± 4 years, 92.0 ± 20.6 kg) were observed during coach-led, on-court training. Nude and clothed body mass were measured pre and postexercise to determine TS. Data are mean ± SD. There was a significant effect of intensity on SL and TS ( P  Inc. on behalf of The Physiological Society and the American Physiological Society.

  17. Estimating the magnitude of prediction uncertainties for field-scale P loss models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, an uncertainty analysis for the Annual P Loss Estima...

  18. Northeast Oregon Wildlife Mitigation Project. Final environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-08-01

    Development of the hydropower system in the Columbia River Basin has had far-reaching effects on many species of wildlife. The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) is responsible for mitigating the loss of wildlife habitat caused by the Federal portion of this system, as allocated to the purpose of power production. BPA needs to mitigate for loss of wildlife habitat in the Snake River Subbasin

  19. Estimation on the Flow Phenomena and the Pressure Loss for the Inlet Part of a Research Reactor Vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Kyoung Woo; Oh, Jae Min; Seo, Jae Kwang; Yoon, Ju Hyeon; Lee, Doo Jeong

    2009-01-01

    For a research reactor, a conceptual primary cooling system (PCS) was designed for an adequate cooling to the reactor core. The developed primary cooling circuit consisted of decay tanks, pumps, heat exchangers, vacuum breakers, some isolation and check valves, connection piping, and instruments. The main function of the primary cooling pumps (PCPs) of the PCS was to circulate the reactor coolant through the fuel core and the heat exchangers during a normal operation. The head according to the design flow rate which was determined by the thermal hydraulic design analysis for the core should be estimated to design the PCPs in the fluid system. The pressure loss in the PCS can be calculated by the dimensional analysis of the pipe flow and the head loss coefficient of the components. However, it is insufficient to estimate the pressure loss for 3-dimensional flow phenomena such as the flow path in the reactor with the theoretical dimensional analysis based on experimental data. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the pressure loss of the part of a research reactor vessel. For evaluating the pressure loss, the commercially available CFD computer model, FLUENT, was employed. First, for validating the application of FLUENT to the pressure loss, a simple case was calculated and compared with the Idelchik empirical correlation. Secondly, several cases for the inlet part of a research reactor vessel were estimated by a FLUENT 3- dimensional calculation

  20. Robust Improvement in Estimation of a Covariance Matrix in an Elliptically Contoured Distribution Respect to Quadratic Loss Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Khodadadi

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Let S be matrix of residual sum of square in linear model Y = Aβ + e where matrix e is distributed as elliptically contoured with unknown scale matrix Σ. In present work, we consider the problem of estimating Σ with respect to squared loss function, L(Σˆ , Σ = tr(ΣΣˆ −1 −I 2 . It is shown that improvement of the estimators were obtained by James, Stein [7], Dey and Srivasan [1] under the normality assumption remains robust under an elliptically contoured distribution respect to squared loss function

  1. Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean

    2017-01-01

    Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the

  2. Near-real-time and scenario earthquake loss estimates for Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, M.; Zuñiga, R.

    2017-12-01

    The large earthquakes of 8 September 2017, M8.1, and 19 September 2017, M7.1 have focused attention on the dangers of Mexican seismicity. The near-real-time alerts by QLARM estimated 10 to 300 fatalities and 0 to 200 fatalities, respectively. At the time of this submission the reported death tolls are 96 and 226, respectively. These alerts were issued within 96 and 57 minutes of the occurrence times. For the M8.1 earthquake the losses due to a line model could be calculated. The line with length L=110 km extended from the initial epicenter to the NE, where the USGS had reported aftershocks. On September 19, no aftershocks were available in near-real-time, so a point source had to be used for the quick calculation of likely casualties. In both cases, the casualties were at least an order of magnitude smaller than what they could have been because on 8 September the source was relatively far offshore and on 19 September the hypocenter was relatively deep. The largest historic earthquake in Mexico occurred on 28 March 1787 and likely had a rupture length of 450 km and M8.6. Based on this event, and after verifying our tool for Mexico, we estimated the order of magnitude of a disaster, given the current population, in a maximum credible earthquake along the Pacific coast. In the countryside along the coast we expect approximately 27,000 fatalities and 480,000 injured. In the special case of Mexico City the casualties in a worst possible earthquake along the Pacific plate boundary would likely be counted as five digit numbers. The large agglomerate of the capital with its lake bed soil attracts most attention. Nevertheless, one should pay attention to the fact that the poor, rural segment of society, living in buildings of weak resistance to shaking, are likely to sustain a mortality rate about 20% larger than the population in cities on average soil.

  3. The Impact of Atmospheric Modeling Errors on GRACE Estimates of Mass Loss in Greenland and Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Ryan A.; Nerem, R. Steven; Wiese, David N.

    2017-12-01

    Systematic errors in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly mass estimates over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets can originate from low-frequency biases in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Operational Analysis model, the atmospheric component of the Atmospheric and Ocean Dealising Level-1B (AOD1B) product used to forward model atmospheric and ocean gravity signals in GRACE processing. These biases are revealed in differences in surface pressure between the ECMWF Operational Analysis model, state-of-the-art reanalyses, and in situ surface pressure measurements. While some of these errors are attributable to well-understood discrete model changes and have published corrections, we examine errors these corrections do not address. We compare multiple models and in situ data in Antarctica and Greenland to determine which models have the most skill relative to monthly averages of the dealiasing model. We also evaluate linear combinations of these models and synthetic pressure fields generated from direct interpolation of pressure observations. These models consistently reveal drifts in the dealiasing model that cause the acceleration of Antarctica's mass loss between April 2002 and August 2016 to be underestimated by approximately 4 Gt yr-2. We find similar results after attempting to solve the inverse problem, recovering pressure biases directly from the GRACE Jet Propulsion Laboratory RL05.1 M mascon solutions. Over Greenland, we find a 2 Gt yr-1 bias in mass trend. While our analysis focuses on errors in Release 05 of AOD1B, we also evaluate the new AOD1B RL06 product. We find that this new product mitigates some of the aforementioned biases.

  4. Wildlife health investigations: needs, challenges and recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    In a fast changing world with growing concerns about biodiversity loss and an increasing number of animal and human diseases emerging from wildlife, the need for effective wildlife health investigations including both surveillance and research is now widely recognized. However, procedures applicable to and knowledge acquired from studies related to domestic animal and human health can be on partly extrapolated to wildlife. This article identifies requirements and challenges inherent in wildlife health investigations, reviews important definitions and novel health investigation methods, and proposes tools and strategies for effective wildlife health surveillance programs. Impediments to wildlife health investigations are largely related to zoological, behavioral and ecological characteristics of wildlife populations and to limited access to investigation materials. These concerns should not be viewed as insurmountable but it is imperative that they are considered in study design, data analysis and result interpretation. It is particularly crucial to remember that health surveillance does not begin in the laboratory but in the fields. In this context, participatory approaches and mutual respect are essential. Furthermore, interdisciplinarity and open minds are necessary because a wide range of tools and knowledge from different fields need to be integrated in wildlife health surveillance and research. The identification of factors contributing to disease emergence requires the comparison of health and ecological data over time and among geographical regions. Finally, there is a need for the development and validation of diagnostic tests for wildlife species and for data on free-ranging population densities. Training of health professionals in wildlife diseases should also be improved. Overall, the article particularly emphasizes five needs of wildlife health investigations: communication and collaboration; use of synergies and triangulation approaches; investments

  5. Inadmissibility of Usual and Mixed Estimators of Two Ordered Gamma Scale Parameters Under Reflected Gamma Loss Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Meghnatisi

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Let Xi1, · · · , Xini be a random sample from a gamma distribution with known shape parameter νi > 0 and unknown scale parameter βi > 0, i = 1, 2, satisfying 0 < β1 6 β2. We consider the class of mixed estimators for estimation of β1 and β2 under reflected gamma loss function. It has been shown that the minimum risk equivariant estimator of βi, i = 1, 2, which is admissible when no information on the ordering of parameters are given, is inadmissible and dominated by a class of mixed estimators when it is known that the parameters are ordered. Also, the inadmissible estimators in the class of mixed estimators are derived. Finally the results are extended to some subclass of exponential family

  6. Soil loss estimation using geographic information system in enfraz watershed for soil conservation planning in highlands of Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gizachew Tiruneh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Accelerated soil erosion is a worldwide problem because of its economic and environmental impacts. Enfraz watershed is one of the most erosion-prone watersheds in the highlands of Ethiopia, which received little attention. This study was, therefore, carried out to spatially predict the soil loss rate of the watershed with a Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE adapted to Ethiopian conditions was used to estimate potential soil losses by utilizing information on rainfall erosivity (R using interpolation of rainfall data, soil erodibility (K using soil map, vegetation cover (C using satellite images, topography (LS using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and conservation practices (P using satellite images. Based on the analysis, about 92.31% (5914.34 ha of the watershed was categorized none to slight class which under soil loss tolerance (SLT values ranging from 5 to 11 tons ha-1 year-1. The remaining 7.68% (492.21 ha of land was classified under moderate to high class about several times the maximum tolerable soil loss. The total and an average amount of soil loss estimated by RUSLE from the watershed was 30,836.41 ton year-1 and 4.81 tons ha-1year-1, respectively.

  7. Hurricane Loss Estimation Models: Opportunities for Improving the State of the Art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Charles C., Jr.; Johnson, Mark E.

    2004-11-01

    The results of hurricane loss models are used regularly for multibillion dollar decisions in the insurance and financial services industries. These models are proprietary, and this “black box” nature hinders analysis. The proprietary models produce a wide range of results, often producing loss costs that differ by a ratio of three to one or more. In a study for the state of North Carolina, 324 combinations of loss models were analyzed, based on a combination of nine wind models, four surface friction models, and nine damage models drawn from the published literature in insurance, engineering, and meteorology. These combinations were tested against reported losses from Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew as reported by a major insurance company, as well as storm total losses for additional storms. Annual loss costs were then computed using these 324 combinations of models for both North Carolina and Florida, and compared with publicly available proprietary model results in Florida. The wide range of resulting loss costs for open, scientifically defensible models that perform well against observed losses mirrors the wide range of loss costs computed by the proprietary models currently in use. This outcome may be discouraging for governmental and corporate decision makers relying on this data for policy and investment guidance (due to the high variability across model results), but it also provides guidance for the efforts of future investigations to improve loss models. Although hurricane loss models are true multidisciplinary efforts, involving meteorology, engineering, statistics, and actuarial sciences, the field of meteorology offers the most promising opportunities for improvement of the state of the art.

  8. Gross margin losses due to Salmonella Dublin infection in Danish dairy cattle herds estimated by simulation modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Dahl; Kudahl, Anne Braad; Østergaard, S.

    2013-01-01

    and dynamic simulation model. The model incorporated six age groups (neonatal, pre-weaned calves, weaned calves, growing heifers, breeding heifers and cows) and five infection stages (susceptible, acutely infected, carrier, super shedder and resistant). The effects of introducing one S. Dublin infectious......Salmonella Dublin affects production and animal health in cattle herds. The objective of this study was to quantify the gross margin (GM) losses following introduction and spread of S. Dublin within dairy herds. The GM losses were estimated using an age-structured stochastic, mechanistic...... with poorer management and herd size, e.g. average annual GM losses were estimated to 49 euros per stall for the first year after infection, and to 8 euros per stall annually averaged over the 10 years after herd infection for a 200 cow stall herd with very good management. In contrast, a 200 cow stall herd...

  9. Eating to save wildlife

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerris, Mickey; Birkved, Morten; Gamborg, Christian

    2016-01-01

    are to work for sustainability and species conservation – should food served in zoos be part of considerations – and to what extent? To answer this question the paper presents the goals of EAZA along with environmental impact profiles, relying on previously published life cycle assessments of the entirety (i......According to the European Association of Zoos and Aquaria (EAZA, 2016) their mission is ”to facilitate cooperation…towards the goals of education, research and conservation”. Livestock production is one of the leading causes of often-irreversible land use changes, greenhouse gas emissions, loss...... of biodiversity and different types of environmental degradation – all affecting wildlife negatively, and hence undermining conservation policies that aim to protect individuals, populations and species. But what is the link between livestock production and zoos and aquariums? One link, putting it a bit boldly...

  10. Spatial and temporal estimation of soil loss for the sustainable management of a wet semi-arid watershed cluster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rejani, R; Rao, K V; Osman, M; Srinivasa Rao, Ch; Reddy, K Sammi; Chary, G R; Pushpanjali; Samuel, Josily

    2016-03-01

    The ungauged wet semi-arid watershed cluster, Seethagondi, lies in the Adilabad district of Telangana in India and is prone to severe erosion and water scarcity. The runoff and soil loss data at watershed, catchment, and field level are necessary for planning soil and water conservation interventions. In this study, an attempt was made to develop a spatial soil loss estimation model for Seethagondi cluster using RUSLE coupled with ARCGIS and was used to estimate the soil loss spatially and temporally. The daily rainfall data of Aphrodite for the period from 1951 to 2007 was used, and the annual rainfall varied from 508 to 1351 mm with a mean annual rainfall of 950 mm and a mean erosivity of 6789 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1). Considerable variation in land use land cover especially in crop land and fallow land was observed during normal and drought years, and corresponding variation in the erosivity, C factor, and soil loss was also noted. The mean value of C factor derived from NDVI for crop land was 0.42 and 0.22 in normal year and drought years, respectively. The topography is undulating and major portion of the cluster has slope less than 10°, and 85.3% of the cluster has soil loss below 20 t ha(-1) year(-1). The soil loss from crop land varied from 2.9 to 3.6 t ha(-1) year(-1) in low rainfall years to 31.8 to 34.7 t ha(-1) year(-1) in high rainfall years with a mean annual soil loss of 12.2 t ha(-1) year(-1). The soil loss from crop land was higher in the month of August with an annual soil loss of 13.1 and 2.9 t ha(-1) year(-1) in normal and drought year, respectively. Based on the soil loss in a normal year, the interventions recommended for 85.3% of area of the watershed includes agronomic measures such as contour cultivation, graded bunds, strip cropping, mixed cropping, crop rotations, mulching, summer plowing, vegetative bunds, agri-horticultural system, and management practices such as broad bed furrow, raised sunken beds, and harvesting available water

  11. Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technical abstract: Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, we conduct an uncertainty analys...

  12. VT Wildlife Linkage Habitat

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) The Wildlife Linkage Habitat Analysis uses landscape scale data to identify or predict the location of potentially significant wildlife linkage...

  13. Inadmissibility of Usual and Mixed Estimators of Two Ordered Gamma Scale Parameters Under Reflected Gamma Loss Function

    OpenAIRE

    Z. Meghnatisi; N. Nematollahi

    2009-01-01

    Let Xi1, · · · , Xini be a random sample from a gamma distribution with known shape parameter νi > 0 and unknown scale parameter βi > 0, i = 1, 2, satisfying 0 < β1 6 β2. We consider the class of mixed estimators for estimation of β1 and β2 under reflected gamma loss function. It has been shown that the minimum risk equivariant estimator of βi, i = 1, 2, which is admissible when no information on the ordering of parameters are given, is inadmissible and dominated by a cla...

  14. Multidisciplinary Wildlife Teaching Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernbrode, William R., Ed.

    This guide provides information and activities descriptions designed to allow the teacher to use wildlife concepts in the teaching of various subjects. The author suggests that wildlife and animals are tremendous motivators for children and hold their attention. In the process, concepts of wildlife interaction with man and the environment are…

  15. Firewood and wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew B. Carey; John D. Gill

    1980-01-01

    The increased demand for firewood threatens the habitat of many wildlife species. Dead or dying trees that commonly are cut for firewood are vital to wildlife species that nest in tree cavities. Likewise, healthy trees of many species preferred for firewood are important components of wildlife habitat. Tree species or species groups are value-rated for both firewood...

  16. A methodology for the estimation of release of fission products during LOCA with loss of ECCS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lele, H.G.; Majumdar, P.; Mukhopadhyay, D.; Gupta, S.K.; Venkat Raj, V.

    2002-01-01

    A Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in a nuclear reactor along with the failure of the Emergency Core Cooling System can cause sustained voiding of the core. In such a situation the core experiences very low flow which leads to poor heat removal from the reactor core. The heat to be removed from the core includes stored heat, heat generated due to metal water reaction at high temperatures, decay heat etc. The poor heat removal leads to heating of the fuel pins to high temperatures. The heating of fuel pins is further enhanced due to metal-water reaction at high temperatures. These high temperatures of the fuel pins can lead to fission product release, which is transported into the Primary Heat Transport (PHT) system and can enter the containment through the break. Analysis is involved due to the complexity of the system and the phenomena to be simulated. In this paper a multistage analysis methodology is presented that involves the development and application of a number of computer programs to model the various phenomena involved. The computer code PHTACT computes the activity release from the fuel as a function of fuel temperatures and cladding oxidation, its distribution into the PHT system and release into the containment. Computation of thermal hydraulic parameters during LOCA is done using the thermal hydraulic analysis code RELAP5. The detailed simulation of fuel pin temperatures is done using computer code HT/MOD4. The convective boundary conditions required for the code are obtained from RELAP5. Creep deformation is considered in the computation of dimensional changes of the coolant channel and estimation of flow blockage due to clad ballooning. The progression of various reaction layers due to high temperature reaction between fuel and clad and clad and steam is also computed, which affects the structural strength of the clad. Different approaches are possible and analysis can be carried out in different phases depending upon the complexities to be

  17. Estimation of parasitic losses in a proposed mesoscale resonant engine: Experiment and model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

    2014-02-01

    A resonant engine in which the piston-cylinder assembly is replaced by a flexible cavity is realized at the mesoscale using flexible metal bellows to demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. A four stroke motoring technique is developed and measurements are performed to determine parasitic losses. A non-linear lumped parameter model is developed to evaluate the engine performance. Experimentally, the heat transfer and friction effects are separated by varying the engine speed and operating frequency. The engine energy flow diagram showing the energy distribution among various parasitic elements reveals that the friction loss in the bellows is smaller than the sliding friction loss in a typical piston-cylinder assembly.

  18. Canadian Estimate of Bird Mortality Due to Collisions and Direct Habitat Loss Associated with Wind Turbine Developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ryan. Zimmerling

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available We estimated impacts on birds from the development and operation of wind turbines in Canada considering both mortality due to collisions and loss of nesting habitat. We estimated collision mortality using data from carcass searches for 43 wind farms, incorporating correction factors for scavenger removal, searcher efficiency, and carcasses that fell beyond the area searched. On average, 8.2 ± 1.4 birds (95% C.I. were killed per turbine per year at these sites, although the numbers at individual wind farms varied from 0 - 26.9 birds per turbine per year. Based on 2955 installed turbines (the number installed in Canada by December 2011, an estimated 23,300 birds (95% C.I. 20,000 - 28,300 would be killed from collisions with turbines each year. We estimated direct habitat loss based on data from 32 wind farms in Canada. On average, total habitat loss per turbine was 1.23 ha, which corresponds to an estimated total habitat loss due to wind farms nationwide of 3635 ha. Based on published estimates of nest density, this could represent habitat for ~5700 nests of all species. Assuming nearby habitats are saturated, and 2 adults displaced per nest site, effects of direct habitat loss are less than that of direct mortality. Installed wind capacity is growing rapidly, and is predicted to increase more than 10-fold over the next 10-15 years, which could lead to direct mortality of approximately 233,000 birds / year, and displacement of 57,000 pairs. Despite concerns about the impacts of biased correction factors on the accuracy of mortality estimates, these values are likely much lower than those from collisions with some other anthropogenic sources such as windows, vehicles, or towers, or habitat loss due to many other forms of development. Species composition data suggest that < 0.2% of the population of any species is currently affected by mortality or displacement from wind turbine development. Therefore, population level impacts are unlikely

  19. Financial loss estimation of bovine fasciolosis in slaughtered cattle in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishmael Festus Jaja

    2017-11-01

    The present study reveals the economic loss due to liver condemnation from Fasciola infection and provides regional baseline information regarding the prevalence of Fasciola in cattle at three abattoirs.

  20. Leakage Detection and Estimation Algorithm for Loss Reduction in Water Piping Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Kazeem B. Adedeji; Yskandar Hamam; Bolanle T. Abe; Adnan M. Abu-Mahfouz

    2017-01-01

    Water loss through leaking pipes constitutes a major challenge to the operational service of water utilities. In recent years, increasing concern about the financial loss and environmental pollution caused by leaking pipes has been driving the development of efficient algorithms for detecting leakage in water piping networks. Water distribution networks (WDNs) are disperse in nature with numerous number of nodes and branches. Consequently, identifying the segment(s) of the network and the exa...

  1. Planting and care of fine hardwood seedlings: Diagnosing and controlling wildlife damage in hardwood plantations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James McKenna; Keith Woeste

    2004-01-01

    Once trees are planted and begin growing, damage from wildlife can threaten their quality. In this publication we discuss how to identify and manage injury to hardwoods from wildlife to minimize losses.

  2. Circumpolar assessment of rhizosphere priming shows limited increase in carbon loss estimates for permafrost soils but large regional variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, B.; Keuper, F.; Kummu, M.; Beer, C.; Blume-Werry, G.; Fontaine, S.; Gavazov, K.; Gentsch, N.; Guggenberger, G.; Hugelius, G.; Jalava, M.; Koven, C.; Krab, E. J.; Kuhry, P.; Monteux, S.; Richter, A.; Shazhad, T.; Dorrepaal, E.

    2017-12-01

    Predictions of soil organic carbon (SOC) losses in the northern circumpolar permafrost area converge around 15% (± 3% standard error) of the initial C pool by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 warming scenario. Yet, none of these estimates consider plant-soil interactions such as the rhizosphere priming effect (RPE). While laboratory experiments have shown that the input of plant-derived compounds can stimulate SOC losses by up to 1200%, the magnitude of RPE in natural ecosystems is unknown and no methods for upscaling exist so far. We here present the first spatial and depth explicit RPE model that allows estimates of RPE on a large scale (PrimeSCale). We combine available spatial data (SOC, C/N, GPP, ALT and ecosystem type) and new ecological insights to assess the importance of the RPE at the circumpolar scale. We use a positive saturating relationship between the RPE and belowground C allocation and two ALT-dependent rooting-depth distribution functions (for tundra and boreal forest) to proportionally assign belowground C allocation and RPE to individual soil depth increments. The model permits to take into account reasonable limiting factors on additional SOC losses by RPE including interactions between spatial and/or depth variation in GPP, plant root density, SOC stocks and ALT. We estimate potential RPE-induced SOC losses at 9.7 Pg C (5 - 95% CI: 1.5 - 23.2 Pg C) by 2100 (RCP 8.5). This corresponds to an increase of the current permafrost SOC-loss estimate from 15% of the initial C pool to about 16%. If we apply an additional molar C/N threshold of 20 to account for microbial C limitation as a requirement for the RPE, SOC losses by RPE are further reduced to 6.5 Pg C (5 - 95% CI: 1.0 - 16.8 Pg C) by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Although our results show that current estimates of permafrost soil C losses are robust without taking into account the RPE, our model also highlights high-RPE risk in Siberian lowland areas and Alaska north of the Brooks Range. The small overall impact of

  3. WILDLIFE HEALTH AND PUBLIC TRUST RESPONSIBILITIES FOR WILDLIFE RESOURCES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Daniel J; Schuler, Krysten; Forstchen, Ann B; Wild, Margaret A; Siemer, William F

    2016-10-01

    A significant development in wildlife management is the mounting concern of wildlife professionals and the public about wildlife health and diseases. Concurrently, the wildlife profession is reexamining implications of managing wildlife populations as a public trust and the concomitant obligation to ensure the quality (i.e., health) and sustainability of wildlife. It is an opportune time to emphasize the importance of wildlife health, specifically to advocate for comprehensive and consistent integration of wildlife health in wildlife management. We summarize application of public trust ideas in wildlife population management in the US. We argue that wildlife health is essential to fulfilling public trust administration responsibilities with respect to wildlife, due to the central responsibility of trustees for ensuring the well-being of wildlife species (i.e., the core resources of the trust). Because both health of wildlife and risk perceptions regarding threats posed by wildlife disease to humans and domestic animals are issues of growing concern, managing wildlife disease and risk communication vis-à-vis wildlife health is critical to wildlife trust administration. We conclude that wildlife health professionals play a critical role in protecting the wildlife trust and that current conditions provide opportunities for important contributions by wildlife health professionals in wildlife management.

  4. A numerical method to estimate AC loss in superconducting coated conductors by finite element modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Z; Jiang, Q; Pei, R; Campbell, A M; Coombs, T A [Engineering Department, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)

    2007-04-15

    A finite element method code based on the critical state model is proposed to solve the AC loss problem in YBCO coated conductors. This numerical method is based on a set of partial differential equations (PDEs) in which the magnetic field is used as the state variable. The AC loss problems have been investigated both in self-field condition and external field condition. Two numerical approaches have been introduced: the first model is configured on the cross-section plane of the YBCO tape to simulate an infinitely long superconducting tape. The second model represents the plane of the critical current flowing and is able to simulate the YBCO tape with finite length where the end effect is accounted. An AC loss measurement has been done to verify the numerical results and shows a good agreement with the numerical solution.

  5. Relation between temporal envelope coding, pitch discrimination, and compression estimates in listeners with sensorineural hearing loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bianchi, Federica; Santurette, Sébastien; Fereczkowski, Michal

    2015-01-01

    Recent physiological studies in animals showed that noise-induced sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) increased the amplitude of envelope coding in single auditory-nerve fibers. The present study investigated whether SNHL in human listeners was associated with enhanced temporal envelope coding...... resolvability. For the unresolved conditions, all five HI listeners performed as good as or better than NH listeners with matching musical experience. Two HI listeners showed lower amplitude-modulation detection thresholds than NH listeners for low modulation rates, and one of these listeners also showed a loss......, whether this enhancement affected pitch discrimination performance, and whether loss of compression following SNHL was a potential factor in envelope coding enhancement. Envelope processing was assessed in normal-hearing (NH) and hearing-impaired (HI) listeners in a behavioral amplitude...

  6. Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge : Wildlife Inventory Plan

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Interior — This Wildlife Inventory Plan for Ottawa NWR describes the inventory program’s relation to Refuge objectives and outlines the program’s policies and administration....

  7. DXA, bioelectrical impedance, ultrasonography and biometry for the estimation of fat and lean mass in cats during weight loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borges Naida C

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Few equations have been developed in veterinary medicine compared to human medicine to predict body composition. The present study was done to evaluate the influence of weight loss on biometry (BIO, bioimpedance analysis (BIA and ultrasonography (US in cats, proposing equations to estimate fat (FM and lean (LM body mass, as compared to dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA as the referenced method. For this were used 16 gonadectomized obese cats (8 males and 8 females in a weight loss program. DXA, BIO, BIA and US were performed in the obese state (T0; obese animals, after 10% of weight loss (T1 and after 20% of weight loss (T2. Stepwise regression was used to analyze the relationship between the dependent variables (FM, LM determined by DXA and the independent variables obtained by BIO, BIA and US. The better models chosen were evaluated by a simple regression analysis and means predicted vs. determined by DXA were compared to verify the accuracy of the equations. Results The independent variables determined by BIO, BIA and US that best correlated (p r2, 19 equations were selected (12 for FM, 7 for LM; however, only 7 equations accurately predicted FM and one LM of cats. Conclusions The equations with two variables are better to use because they are effective and will be an alternative method to estimate body composition in the clinical routine. For estimated lean mass the equations using body weight associated with biometrics measures can be proposed. For estimated fat mass the equations using body weight associated with bioimpedance analysis can be proposed.

  8. Afrika Statistika ISSN 2316-090X Quadratic loss estimation of a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    vector X is normally distributed with mean θ and of covariance matrix the identity Ip. In this setting, the random vectors X and U are independent then the situation becomes the same as when just the vector X is available, so here, we do not consider the residual vector. U. So in the first step, we study the quadratic loss ...

  9. Estimation of soil loss by gully erosion in Mubi, Adamawa state ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Six locations in Mubi, Adamawa State (Digil, Muvur, Vimtim Gella, Lamorde and Madanya) affected by gully erosion were surveyed between April, 2003 and November, 2004. Parameters related to soil erosion losses such as slope, topography, vegetation and land use were noted or measured. Photographs of the affected ...

  10. Yield loss prediction models based on early estimation of weed pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asif, Ali; Streibig, Jens Carl; Andreasen, Christian

    2013-01-01

    thresholds are more relevant for site-specific weed management, because weeds are unevenly distributed in fields. Precision of prediction of yield loss is influenced by various factors such as locations, yield potential at the site, variation in competitive ability of mix stands of weed species and emergence...

  11. Debris flows risk analysis and direct loss estimation: the case study of Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blahůt, Jan; Glade, T.; Sterlacchini, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 2 (2014), s. 288-307 ISSN 1672-6316 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : Debris flows * Risk analysis * Economic losses * Central Alps * Italy Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Physical geography Impact factor: 0.963, year: 2014

  12. Estimation of loss due to post harvest diseases of potato in markets ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    2011-09-26

    Sep 26, 2011 ... percentage loss of potatoes due to important diseases occurring in the ... Survey of diseased potato and Collection of disease sample ... alcohol swab. A piece of ..... temperature of 17 to 25°C over 70% relative humidity and.

  13. Methodology used in Cuba for estimating economic losses caused by forest fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos Pedro Ramos Rodríguez; Raúl González Rodríguez

    2013-01-01

    Assessment of economic losses caused by forest fires is a highly complex but important activity. It is complicated first by the large number of effects, in different periods, brought about in the social, economic and environmental fields. Secondly, the difficulty of assigning a market value to resources such as biodiversity or endangered species should be mentioned. It...

  14. soil loss estimation through usle and mmf methods in the lateritic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    relative comparison and suitability of both methods in the precise estimation of ... district, West Bengal and eastern Shikaripara ... the cartographic works, ranging from ... crop cover management factor; combines the C and P factors of USLE.

  15. Estimated carbon emission from recent rapid forest loss in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, A.; Zeng, Z.; Peng, L.; Fei, S.

    2017-12-01

    Driven by agricultural expansion, industrial logging, oil palm and rubber plantations, and urbanization, Southeast Asia (SEA) is one of the hotspots for tropical deforestation over recent decades. The extent of the tropical SEA deforestation rate, as well as its impacts on carbon cycle and biodiversity, however, is still highly uncertain. In relevant work using high resolution global maps of the 21st-century forest cover, we find tropical SEA lost 22 million hectares, or 9%, of forest area during 2000-2014, a much higher deforestation rate than previously reported. Here we further conduct research investigating carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in SEA with satellite data of forest cover, a global tropical forest biomass map, and Earth system models. Preliminary results suggest that deforestation in SEA causes about 2.8 Tg C emissions to the atmosphere during the same period, also higher than that of previous studies. Meanwhile, carbon emission from deforestation shows high variations across different countries, topography and between the insular and maritime SEA. Indonesia and Malaysia tops in both total carbon loss and loss from per unit land area. Our results indicates that previous studies have underestimated the carbon loss due to deforestation in SEA. And until further effective forest conservation measures can be adopted, tropical SEA will continue playing a role of atmospheric carbon source in the coming decades.

  16. Fuel treatment impacts on estimated wildfire carbon loss from forests in Montana, Oregon, California, and Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Scott L.; Boerner, Ralph E.J.; Maghaddas, Jason J.; Maghaddas, Emily E.Y.; Collins, Brandon M.; Dow, Christopher B.; Edminster, Carl; Fiedler, Carl E.; Fry, Danny L.; Hartsough, Bruce R.; Keeley, Jon E.; Knapp, Eric E.; McIver, James D.; Skinner, Carl N.; Youngblood, Andrew P.

    2012-01-01

    Using forests to sequester carbon in response to anthropogenically induced climate change is being considered across the globe. A recent U.S. executive order mandated that all federal agencies account for sequestration and emissions of greenhouse gases, highlighting the importance of understanding how forest carbon stocks are influenced by wildfire. This paper reports the effects of the most common forest fuel reduction treatments on carbon pools composed of live and dead biomass as well as potential wildfire emissions from six different sites in four western U.S. states. Additionally, we predict the median forest product life spans and uses of materials removed during mechanical treatments. Carbon loss from modeled wildfire-induced tree mortality was lowest in the mechanical plus prescribed fire treatments, followed by the prescribed fire-only treatments. Wildfire emissions varied from 10–80 Mg/ha and were lowest in the prescribed fire and mechanical followed by prescribed fire treatments at most sites. Mean biomass removals per site ranged from approximately 30–60 dry Mg/ha; the median lives of products in first use varied considerably (from 50 years). Our research suggests most of the benefits of increased fire resistance can be achieved with relatively small reductions in current carbon stocks. Retaining or growing larger trees also reduced the vulnerability of carbon loss from wildfire. In addition, modeled vulnerabilities to carbon losses and median forest product life spans varied considerably across our study sites, which could be used to help prioritize treatment implementation.

  17. Estimating the welfare loss to households from natural disasters in developing countries: a contingent valuation study of flooding in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navrud, Ståle; Tuan, Tran Huu; Tinh, Bui Duc

    2012-01-01

    Background Natural disasters have severe impacts on the health and well-being of affected households. However, we find evidence that official damage cost assessments for floods and other natural disasters in Vietnam, where households have little or no insurance, clearly underestimate the total economic damage costs of these events as they do not include the welfare loss from mortality, morbidity and well-being experienced by the households affected by the floods. This should send a message to the local communities and national authorities that higher investments in flood alleviation, reduction and adaptive measures can be justified since the social benefits of these measures in terms of avoided damage costs are higher than previously thought. Methods We pioneer the use of the contingent valuation (CV) approach of willingness-to-contribute (WTC) labour to a flood prevention program, as a measure of the welfare loss experienced by household due to a flooding event. In a face-to-face household survey of 706 households in the Quang Nam province in Central Vietnam, we applied this approach together with reported direct physical damage in order to shed light of the welfare loss experienced by the households. We asked about households’ WTC labour and multiplied their WTC person-days of labour by an estimate for their opportunity cost of time in order to estimate the welfare loss to households from the 2007 floods. Results The results showed that this contingent valuation (CV) approach of asking about willingness-to-pay in-kind avoided the main problems associated with applying CV in developing countries. Conclusion Thus, the CV approach of WTC labour instead of money is promising in terms of capturing the total welfare loss of natural disasters, and promising in terms of further application in other developing countries and for other types of natural disasters. PMID:22761603

  18. Estimating hypothetical present-day insured losses for past intense hurricanes in the French Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Desarthe, Jérémy; Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Garnier, Emmanuel; Liu, Ye; Moncoulon, David

    2015-04-01

    On the islands of the French Antilles, the period for which systematic meteorological measurements and historic event loss data are available is short relative to the recurrence intervals of very intense, damaging hurricanes. Additionally, the value of property at risk changes through time. As such, the recent past can only provide limited insight into potential losses from extreme storms in coming years. Here we present some research that seeks to overcome, as far as is possible, the limitations of record length in assessing the possible impacts of near-future hurricanes on insured properties. First, using the archives of the French overseas departments (which included administrative and weather reports, inventories of damage to houses, crops and trees, as well as some meteorological observations after 1950) we reconstructed the spatial patterns of hazard intensity associated with three historical events. They are: i) the 1928 Hurricane (Guadeloupe), ii) Hurricane Betsy (1956, Guadeloupe) and iii) Hurricane David (1979, Martinique). These events were selected because all were damaging, and the information available on each is rich. Then, using a recently developed catastrophe model for hurricanes affecting Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin, we simulated the hypothetical losses to insured properties that the reconstructed events might cause if they were to reoccur today. The model simulated damage due to wind, rainfall-induced flooding and storm surge flooding. These 'what if' scenarios provided an initial indication of the potential present-day exposure of the insurance industry to intense hurricanes. However, we acknowledge that historical events are unlikely to repeat exactly. We therefore extended the study by producing a stochastic event catalogue containing a large number of synthetic but plausible hurricane events. Instrumental data were used as a basis for event generation, but importantly the statistical methods we applied permit

  19. Bias and efficiency loss in regression estimates due to duplicated observations: a Monte Carlo simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Sarracino

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies documented that survey data contain duplicate records. We assess how duplicate records affect regression estimates, and we evaluate the effectiveness of solutions to deal with duplicate records. Results show that the chances of obtaining unbiased estimates when data contain 40 doublets (about 5% of the sample range between 3.5% and 11.5% depending on the distribution of duplicates. If 7 quintuplets are present in the data (2% of the sample, then the probability of obtaining biased estimates ranges between 11% and 20%. Weighting the duplicate records by the inverse of their multiplicity, or dropping superfluous duplicates outperform other solutions in all considered scenarios. Our results illustrate the risk of using data in presence of duplicate records and call for further research on strategies to analyze affected data.

  20. The deforestation debate; estimates vary widely over the extent of forest loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monastersky, R.

    1993-01-01

    While tropical forests are vanishing at a disturbing rate, the wide-spread disagreement over deforestation estimates makes it difficult for government officials and scientists to assess the problem. In turn this hampers efforts to gauge the threat of related issues such as habitat destruction and global warming. Creating more confusion is the realization that partly deforested, but not stripped, lands have not been completely taken into account. In addition lands in tropical regions but outside the tropical rain forest are poorly represented. This article uses Brazil as an example of the conflicting estimates. The efforts of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to improve its estimates are described. An on-going NASA project to help is also described

  1. Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972-2002: Best estimates, uncertainties and research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Jane; Shearman, Phil; Ash, Julian; Kirkpatrick, J B

    2010-01-01

    Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (+/-13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (+/-18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (+/-18%), rising from 24 Mt (+/-15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Analytical estimation show low depth-independent water loss due to vapor flux from deep aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selker, John S.

    2017-06-01

    Recent articles have provided estimates of evaporative flux from water tables in deserts that span 5 orders of magnitude. In this paper, we present an analytical calculation that indicates aquifer vapor flux to be limited to 0.01 mm/yr for sites where there is negligible recharge and the water table is well over 20 m below the surface. This value arises from the geothermal gradient, and therefore, is nearly independent of the actual depth of the aquifer. The value is in agreement with several numerical studies, but is 500 times lower than recently reported experimental values, and 100 times larger than an earlier analytical estimate.

  3. Sampling designs and methods for estimating fish-impingement losses at cooling-water intakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murarka, I.P.; Bodeau, D.J.

    1977-01-01

    Several systems for estimating fish impingement at power plant cooling-water intakes are compared to determine the most statistically efficient sampling designs and methods. Compared to a simple random sampling scheme the stratified systematic random sampling scheme, the systematic random sampling scheme, and the stratified random sampling scheme yield higher efficiencies and better estimators for the parameters in two models of fish impingement as a time-series process. Mathematical results and illustrative examples of the applications of the sampling schemes to simulated and real data are given. Some sampling designs applicable to fish-impingement studies are presented in appendixes

  4. Estimation of hysteretic losses for MgB2 tapes under the operating conditions of a generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vargas-Llanos, Carlos Roberto; Zermeño, Víctor M R; Grilli, Francesco; Sanz, Santiago; Trillaud, Frederic

    2016-01-01

    Hysteretic losses in the MgB 2 wound superconducting coils of a 550 kW synchronous hybrid scaled generator were estimated as part of the European project SUPRAPOWER led by the Spanish Fundación Tecnalia Research and Innovation. Particular interest was given to the losses caused by the magnetic flux ripples in the rotor coils originating from the conventional stator during nominal operation. To compute these losses, a 2D finite element analysis was conducted and Maxwell’s equations written in the H-formulation were solved considering the nonlinear material properties of the conductor materials. The modeled tapes are made of multiple MgB 2 filaments embedded in a Ni matrix and soldered to a high purity copper strip and insulated with Dacron braid. Three geometrical models of single tape cross sections of decreasing complexity were studied: (1) the first model reproduced closely the actual cross section obtained from tape micrographs. (2) The second model was obtained from the computed elasto-plastic deformation of a round Ni wire. (3) The third model was based on a simplified cross section with the superconducting filaments bundled in a single elliptical bulky structure. The last geometry allowed the validation of the modeling technique by comparing numerical losses with results from well-established analytical expressions. Additionally, the following cases of filament transpositions of the multi-filamentary tape were studied: no transposition, partial and full transposition; thereby improving understanding of the relevance of the tape fabrication process on the magnitude of the determination of ac losses. Finally, choosing the right level of geometrical detail, the following operational regimes of the machine and its impact on individual superconducting tape losses in the rotor were studied: bias-dc current, ramping current under ramping background field and magnetic flux ripples under dc background current and field. (paper)

  5. A Simple Method for Estimating the Economic Cost of Productivity Loss Due to Blindness and Moderate to Severe Visual Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckert, Kristen A; Carter, Marissa J; Lansingh, Van C; Wilson, David A; Furtado, João M; Frick, Kevin D; Resnikoff, Serge

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the annual loss of productivity from blindness and moderate to severe visual impairment (MSVI) using simple models (analogous to how a rapid assessment model relates to a comprehensive model) based on minimum wage (MW) and gross national income (GNI) per capita (US$, 2011). Cost of blindness (COB) was calculated for the age group ≥50 years in nine sample countries by assuming the loss of current MW and loss of GNI per capita. It was assumed that all individuals work until 65 years old and that half of visual impairment prevalent in the ≥50 years age group is prevalent in the 50-64 years age group. For cost of MSVI (COMSVI), individual wage and GNI loss of 30% was assumed. Results were compared with the values of the uncorrected refractive error (URE) model of productivity loss. COB (MW method) ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $2.5 billion in the United States, and COMSVI ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $5.3 billion in the US. COB (GNI method) ranged from $0.1 million in Honduras to $7.8 billion in the US, and COMSVI ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $16.5 billion in the US. Most GNI method values were near equivalent to those of the URE model. Although most people with blindness and MSVI live in developing countries, the highest productivity losses are in high income countries. The global economy could improve if eye care were made more accessible and more affordable to all.

  6. Estimation of hysteretic losses for MgB2 tapes under the operating conditions of a generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Llanos, Carlos Roberto; Zermeño, Víctor M. R.; Sanz, Santiago; Trillaud, Frederic; Grilli, Francesco

    2016-03-01

    Hysteretic losses in the MgB2 wound superconducting coils of a 550 kW synchronous hybrid scaled generator were estimated as part of the European project SUPRAPOWER led by the Spanish Fundación Tecnalia Research & Innovation. Particular interest was given to the losses caused by the magnetic flux ripples in the rotor coils originating from the conventional stator during nominal operation. To compute these losses, a 2D finite element analysis was conducted and Maxwell’s equations written in the H-formulation were solved considering the nonlinear material properties of the conductor materials. The modeled tapes are made of multiple MgB2 filaments embedded in a Ni matrix and soldered to a high purity copper strip and insulated with Dacron braid. Three geometrical models of single tape cross sections of decreasing complexity were studied: (1) the first model reproduced closely the actual cross section obtained from tape micrographs. (2) The second model was obtained from the computed elasto-plastic deformation of a round Ni wire. (3) The third model was based on a simplified cross section with the superconducting filaments bundled in a single elliptical bulky structure. The last geometry allowed the validation of the modeling technique by comparing numerical losses with results from well-established analytical expressions. Additionally, the following cases of filament transpositions of the multi-filamentary tape were studied: no transposition, partial and full transposition; thereby improving understanding of the relevance of the tape fabrication process on the magnitude of the determination of ac losses. Finally, choosing the right level of geometrical detail, the following operational regimes of the machine and its impact on individual superconducting tape losses in the rotor were studied: bias-dc current, ramping current under ramping background field and magnetic flux ripples under dc background current and field.

  7. The Implications of Summer Learning Loss for Value-Added Estimates of Teacher Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershenson, Seth; Hayes, Michael S.

    2018-01-01

    School districts across the United States increasingly use value-added models (VAMs) to evaluate teachers. In practice, VAMs typically rely on lagged test scores from the previous academic year, which necessarily conflate summer with school-year learning and potentially bias estimates of teacher effectiveness. We investigate the practical…

  8. Motor unit number estimation in the quantitative assessment of severity and progression of motor unit loss in Hirayama disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chaojun; Zhu, Yu; Zhu, Dongqing; Lu, Feizhou; Xia, Xinlei; Jiang, Jianyuan; Ma, Xiaosheng

    2017-06-01

    To investigate motor unit number estimation (MUNE) as a method to quantitatively evaluate severity and progression of motor unit loss in Hirayama disease (HD). Multipoint incremental MUNE was performed bilaterally on both abductor digiti minimi and abductor pollicis brevis muscles in 46 patients with HD and 32 controls, along with handgrip strength examination. MUNE was re-evaluated approximately 1year after initial examination in 17 patients with HD. The MUNE values were significantly lower in all the tested muscles in the HD group (Pdisease duration (Pmotor unit loss in patients with HD within approximately 1year (P4years. A reduction in the functioning motor units was found in patients with HD compared with that in controls, even in the early asymptomatic stages. Moreover, the motor unit loss in HD progresses gradually as the disease advances. These results have provided evidence for the application of MUNE in estimating the reduction of motor unit in HD and confirming the validity of MUNE for tracking the progression of HD in a clinical setting. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimating gene gain and loss rates in the presence of error in genome assembly and annotation using CAFE 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Mira V; Thomas, Gregg W C; Lugo-Martinez, Jose; Hahn, Matthew W

    2013-08-01

    Current sequencing methods produce large amounts of data, but genome assemblies constructed from these data are often fragmented and incomplete. Incomplete and error-filled assemblies result in many annotation errors, especially in the number of genes present in a genome. This means that methods attempting to estimate rates of gene duplication and loss often will be misled by such errors and that rates of gene family evolution will be consistently overestimated. Here, we present a method that takes these errors into account, allowing one to accurately infer rates of gene gain and loss among genomes even with low assembly and annotation quality. The method is implemented in the newest version of the software package CAFE, along with several other novel features. We demonstrate the accuracy of the method with extensive simulations and reanalyze several previously published data sets. Our results show that errors in genome annotation do lead to higher inferred rates of gene gain and loss but that CAFE 3 sufficiently accounts for these errors to provide accurate estimates of important evolutionary parameters.

  10. Post-Formation Sodium Loss on the Moon: A Bulk Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, P.; Killen, R. M.; Airapetian, V.; Petro, N. E.; Mandell, A. M.

    2018-01-01

    The Moon and Earth are generally similar in terms of composition, but there exist variations in the abundance of certain elements among the two bodies. These differences are a likely consequence of differing physical evolution of the two bodies over the solar system's history. While previous works have assumed this may be due to conditions during the Moonâ€"TM"s formation, we explore the likelihood that the observed depletion in Sodium in lunar samples may be partially due to post-formation mechanisms. Solar effects, loss from a primordial atmosphere and impacts are some of the dominant post-formation mechanisms that we examine. We describe how our past and current modeling efforts indicate that a significant fraction of the observed depletion of sodium in lunar samples relative to a bulk silicate earth composition may have been due to solar activity, atmospheric loss and impacts. Using profiles of sodium abundances from lunar crustal samples may thus serve as a powerful tool towards exploring conditions on the Moon's surface throughout solar system history. Conditions on the Moon immediately after formation may still be recorded in the lunar crust and may provide a window towards interpreting observations from some of the first rocky exoplanets that will be most amenable to characterization. Potential spatial variation of sodium in the lunar crust may be a relevant consideration for future sample return efforts. Sodium Depletion in the Lunar Crust: Lunar

  11. An eddy current vector potential formulation for estimating hysteresis losses of superconductors with FEM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenvall, A; Tarhasaari, T

    2010-01-01

    Many people these days employ only commercial finite element method (FEM) software when solving for the hysteresis losses of superconductors. Thus, the knowledge of a modeller is in the capability of using the black boxes of software efficiently. This has led to a relatively superficial examination of different formulations while the discussion stays mainly on the usage of the user interfaces of these programs. Also, if we stay only at the mercy of commercial software producers, we end up having less and less knowledge on the details of solvers. Then, it becomes more and more difficult to conceptually solve new kinds of problem. This may prevent us finding new kinds of method to solve old problems more efficiently, or finding a solution for a problem that was considered almost impossible earlier. In our earlier research, we presented the background of a co-tree gauged T-ψ FEM solver for computing the hysteresis losses of superconductors. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of FEM and eddy current vector potential formulation in the same problem.

  12. Multitemporal analysis of estimated soil loss for the river Mourão watershed, Paraná - Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graça, C H; Passig, F H; Kelniar, A R; Piza, M A; Carvalho, K Q; Arantes, E J

    2015-12-01

    The multitemporal behavior of soil loss by surface water erosion in the hydrographic basin of the river Mourão in the center-western region of the Paraná state, Brazil, is analyzed. Forecast was based on the application of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with the data integration and estimates within an Geography Information System (GIS) environment. Results had shown high mean annual rain erosivity (10,000 MJ.mm.ha(-1).h(-1).year(-1)), with great concentration in January and December. As a rule, soils have average erodibilities, exception of Dystroferric Red Latisol (low class) and Dystrophic Red Argisol (high class). Although the topographic factor was high (>20), rates lower than 1 were predominant. Main land uses comprise temporal crops and pasture throughout the years. The watershed showed a natural potential for low surface erosion. When related to usage types, yearly soil loss was also low (Soil loss over the years did not provide great distinctions in distribution standards, although it becames rather intensified in some sectors, especially in the center-eastern and southwestern sections of the watershed.

  13. Multitemporal analysis of estimated soil loss for the river Mourão watershed, Paraná – Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. H. Graça

    Full Text Available The multitemporal behavior of soil loss by surface water erosion in the hydrographic basin of the river Mourão in the center-western region of the Paraná state, Brazil, is analyzed. Forecast was based on the application of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE with the data integration and estimates within an Geography Information System (GIS environment. Results had shown high mean annual rain erosivity (10,000 MJ.mm.ha–1.h–1.year–1, with great concentration in January and December. As a rule, soils have average erodibilities, exception of Dystroferric Red Latisol (low class and Dystrophic Red Argisol (high class. Although the topographic factor was high (>20, rates lower than 1 were predominant. Main land uses comprise temporal crops and pasture throughout the years. The watershed showed a natural potential for low surface erosion. When related to usage types, yearly soil loss was also low (<50 ton.ha–1.year–1, with more critical scores that reach rates higher than 150 ton.ha–1.year–1. Soil loss over the years did not provide great distinctions in distribution standards, although it becames rather intensified in some sectors, especially in the center-eastern and southwestern sections of the watershed.

  14. Variable selection for confounder control, flexible modeling and Collaborative Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation in causal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnitzer, Mireille E.; Lok, Judith J.; Gruber, Susan

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriateness of the integration of flexible propensity score modeling (nonparametric or machine learning approaches) in semiparametric models for the estimation of a causal quantity, such as the mean outcome under treatment. We begin with an overview of some of the issues involved in knowledge-based and statistical variable selection in causal inference and the potential pitfalls of automated selection based on the fit of the propensity score. Using a simple example, we directly show the consequences of adjusting for pure causes of the exposure when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Such variables are likely to be selected when using a naive approach to model selection for the propensity score. We describe how the method of Collaborative Targeted minimum loss-based estimation (C-TMLE; van der Laan and Gruber, 2010) capitalizes on the collaborative double robustness property of semiparametric efficient estimators to select covariates for the propensity score based on the error in the conditional outcome model. Finally, we compare several approaches to automated variable selection in low-and high-dimensional settings through a simulation study. From this simulation study, we conclude that using IPTW with flexible prediction for the propensity score can result in inferior estimation, while Targeted minimum loss-based estimation and C-TMLE may benefit from flexible prediction and remain robust to the presence of variables that are highly correlated with treatment. However, in our study, standard influence function-based methods for the variance underestimated the standard errors, resulting in poor coverage under certain data-generating scenarios. PMID:26226129

  15. Estimation of friction loss under forced flow pulsations in a channel with discrete roughness elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davletshin, I. A.; Dushina, O. A.; Mikheev, N. I.; Kolchin, S. A.

    2017-11-01

    The pulsating flow in a circular channel with semicircular annular ribs as discrete roughness elements has been studied experimentally. Air flow under atmospheric conditions at the channel inlet has been considered. Steady and pulsating air flow has been studied under different frequencies and amplitudes of forced pulsations generated by periodic blockage of the channel cross section by a rotating flap. Flow resistance in pulsating regimes has been estimated from the average static pressure drop. The resistance values attained twice the steady flow ones.

  16. Estimating Snow Water Equivalent with Backscattering at X and Ku Band Based on Absorption Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yurong Cui

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Snow water equivalent (SWE is a key parameter in the Earth’s energy budget and water cycle. It has been demonstrated that SWE can be retrieved using active microwave remote sensing from space. This necessitates the development of forward models that are capable of simulating the interactions of microwaves and the snow medium. Several proposed models have described snow as a collection of sphere- or ellipsoid-shaped ice particles embedded in air, while the microstructure of snow is, in reality, more complex. Natural snow usually forms a sintered structure following mechanical and thermal metamorphism processes. In this research, the bi-continuous vector radiative transfer (bi-continuous-VRT model, which firstly constructs snow microstructure more similar to real snow and then simulates the snow backscattering signal, is used as the forward model for SWE estimation. Based on this forward model, a parameterization scheme of snow volume backscattering is proposed. A relationship between snow optical thickness and single scattering albedo at X and Ku bands is established by analyzing the database generated from the bi-continuous-VRT model. A cost function with constraints is used to solve effective albedo and optical thickness, while the absorption part of optical thickness is obtained from these two parameters. SWE is estimated after a correction for physical temperature. The estimated SWE is correlated with the measured SWE with an acceptable accuracy. Validation against two-year measurements, using the SnowScat instrument from the Nordic Snow Radar Experiment (NoSREx, shows that the estimated SWE using the presented algorithm has a root mean square error (RMSE of 16.59 mm for the winter of 2009–2010 and 19.70 mm for the winter of 2010–2011.

  17. Global distribution of revenue loss from tax avoidance: Re-estimation and country results

    OpenAIRE

    Cobham, Alex; Janský, Petr

    2017-01-01

    International corporate tax is an important source of government revenue, especially in lower-income countries. An important recent study of the scale of this problem was carried out by International Monetary Fund researchers Ernesto Crivelli, Ruud De Mooij, and Michael Keen. We first re-estimate their innovative model, and then explore the effects of introducing higher-quality revenue data from the ICTD-WIDER Government Revenue Database. Whereas Crivelli et al. report results for two country...

  18. A GIS based estimation of loss of particulate nitrogen and phosphorus in typical drainage area of Pearl River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaonan; Wu, Zhifeng; Cheng, Jiong; Liu, Ping

    2008-10-01

    The output of nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural activities is the main source for water eutrophication. The fully developed agriculture in vegetables, fruits and flowers in Pearl River Delta gives rise to excessive use of chemical matter such as fertilizer and pesticide and thus bring about the serious water pollution because of the loss of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from the farmland in the region. Based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and soil pollution data, Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and source type method are used to estimate the loads of particulate N and P from the soil of different land use types in the drainage area of Liuxi River in Guangzhou, China. So the key regions those the NPS pollution occurred can be confirmed and the technical support for the pollution control target and the capital flow concentration can be provided by the results. The study shows that, (1) The total loss of particulate N and P in the drainage area is 582.49 t/a and 424.74 t/a respectively. Among them the loss of particulate N from paddy soil occupies 40.02% and that of forest 6.31%, while the loss of particulate P from the soil of dry-land accounts for 28.75% and that of paddy soil 26.31%. (2) There are significantly different losses of particulate N and P per unit area from the soils of different source land use types in the drainage area. The losses of particulate N and P per unit area are both the highest from the soil of dry-land, which is 7.72 kg/hm2 and 9.50 kg/hm2 respectively, followed by those of orchard, which is 7.20 kg/hm2 and 6.56 kg/hm2 respectively. The causes are excessive use of chemical matter, unreasonable cultivation pattern, and the soil erosion of different land use. (3) The excessive N and P come from the loss of particulate N and P from the fertilization in agricultural production, and they are the main source of the pollutants in Liuxi River water.

  19. The INCOTUR model : estimation of losses in the tourism sector in Alcudia due to a hydrocarbon spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergueiro, J.R.; Moreno, S.; Guijarro, S.; Santos, A.; Serr, F.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented a computer model that calculates the economic losses incurred by a hydrocarbon spill on a coastal area. In particular, it focused on the Balearic Islands in the Bay of Alcudia where the economy depends mainly on tourism. A large number of oil tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Balearic Sea. Any pollution resulting from a fuel spill can have a significant economic impact on both the tourism sector and the Balearic society in general. This study focused on the simulation of 18 spills of Jet A1 fuel oil, unleaded gasoline and Bunker C fuel oil. Simulations of the study area were produced with OILMAP, MIKE21, GNOME and ADIOS models which estimated the trajectories of various spills and the amount of oil washed ashore. The change in physical and chemical properties of the spilled hydrocarbons was also determined. The simulation models considered the trajectory followed by spills according to the type and amount of spill, weather conditions prevailing during the spill and the period immediately following the spill. The INCOTUR model was then used to calculate the economic losses resulting from an oil spill by considering the number of tonnes of oil washed ashore; number of days needed to organize cleanup; the percentage of tourism that will be maintained despite the effects of the spill; number of hotel beds; percentage of hotel occupancy by month; cost of package holidays; petty cash expenses; and, cost of advertising campaign for the affected area. With this data, the model can determine the number of days needed to clean and restore the coastline; monthly rate of recovery in tourism levels; and, losses in tourism sector. According to the INCOTUR model, the total losses incurred by a spill of 40,000 tonnes of Bunker C fuel, was estimated at 472 million Euros. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 12 figs

  20. The INCOTUR model : estimation of losses in the tourism sector in Alcudia due to a hydrocarbon spill

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergueiro, J.R.; Moreno, S.; Guijarro, S.; Santos, A.; Serr, F. [Iles Balears Univ., Palma de Mallorca, Balearic Islands (Spain). Dept. of Chemistry

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented a computer model that calculates the economic losses incurred by a hydrocarbon spill on a coastal area. In particular, it focused on the Balearic Islands in the Bay of Alcudia where the economy depends mainly on tourism. A large number of oil tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Balearic Sea. Any pollution resulting from a fuel spill can have a significant economic impact on both the tourism sector and the Balearic society in general. This study focused on the simulation of 18 spills of Jet A1 fuel oil, unleaded gasoline and Bunker C fuel oil. Simulations of the study area were produced with OILMAP, MIKE21, GNOME and ADIOS models which estimated the trajectories of various spills and the amount of oil washed ashore. The change in physical and chemical properties of the spilled hydrocarbons was also determined. The simulation models considered the trajectory followed by spills according to the type and amount of spill, weather conditions prevailing during the spill and the period immediately following the spill. The INCOTUR model was then used to calculate the economic losses resulting from an oil spill by considering the number of tonnes of oil washed ashore; number of days needed to organize cleanup; the percentage of tourism that will be maintained despite the effects of the spill; number of hotel beds; percentage of hotel occupancy by month; cost of package holidays; petty cash expenses; and, cost of advertising campaign for the affected area. With this data, the model can determine the number of days needed to clean and restore the coastline; monthly rate of recovery in tourism levels; and, losses in tourism sector. According to the INCOTUR model, the total losses incurred by a spill of 40,000 tonnes of Bunker C fuel, was estimated at 472 million Euros. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 12 figs.

  1. Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan - a data integration approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, T.; McAneney, K. J.; Chen, K.

    2011-12-01

    Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data - census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data - this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US 12.5 billion). Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like that presented here have

  2. Losses of soil carbon by converting tropical forest to plantations: erosion and decomposition estimated by δ(13) C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Thomas; Damris, Muhammad; Kuzyakov, Yakov

    2015-09-01

    Indonesia lost more tropical forest than all of Brazil in 2012, mainly driven by the rubber, oil palm, and timber industries. Nonetheless, the effects of converting forest to oil palm and rubber plantations on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks remain unclear. We analyzed SOC losses after lowland rainforest conversion to oil palm, intensive rubber, and extensive rubber plantations in Jambi Province on Sumatra Island. The focus was on two processes: (1) erosion and (2) decomposition of soil organic matter. Carbon contents in the Ah horizon under oil palm and rubber plantations were strongly reduced up to 70% and 62%, respectively. The decrease was lower under extensive rubber plantations (41%). On average, converting forest to plantations led to a loss of 10 Mg C ha(-1) after about 15 years of conversion. The C content in the subsoil was similar under the forest and the plantations. We therefore assumed that a shift to higher δ(13) C values in plantation subsoil corresponds to the losses from the upper soil layer by erosion. Erosion was estimated by comparing the δ(13) C profiles in the soils under forest and under plantations. The estimated erosion was the strongest in oil palm (35 ± 8 cm) and rubber (33 ± 10 cm) plantations. The (13) C enrichment of SOC used as a proxy of its turnover indicates a decrease of SOC decomposition rate in the Ah horizon under oil palm plantations after forest conversion. Nonetheless, based on the lack of C input from litter, we expect further losses of SOC in oil palm plantations, which are a less sustainable land use compared to rubber plantations. We conclude that δ(13) C depth profiles may be a powerful tool to disentangle soil erosion and SOC mineralization after the conversion of natural ecosystems conversion to intensive plantations when soils show gradual increase of δ(13) C values with depth. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Measurement of spinal or peripheral bone mass to estimate early postmenopausal bone loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riis, B.J.; Christiansen, C.

    1988-01-01

    This report presents data from 153 healthy, early postmenopausal women who were randomly allocated to two years of treatment with estrogen or placebo. Bone mineral content in the forearms was measured by single-photon absorptiometry, and bone mineral density of the lumbar spine and total-body bone mineral by dual-photon absorptiometry, before and after one and two years of treatment. At the end of the two years, there were highly significant differences of 6 to 7 percent between the estrogen and the placebo groups at all sites measured. The range of the changes of the spine measurement was twice that of the forearm and total-body measurements. It is concluded that measurement of the forearm by single-photon absorptiometry is superior to measurement of the spine by dual-photon absorptiometry both in clinical studies and in the individual patient for detecting estrogen-dependent bone loss and its treatment by estrogen replacement

  4. Wildlife and Tamarix

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this chapter, we present a synthesis of published literature and preliminary reports on the use of Tamarix by wildlife in riparian systems. We discuss how several groups of wildlife; specifically herpetofauna, birds, and mammals utilize or avoid Tamarix and discuss the impacts of methods for cont...

  5. Wildlife value orientations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamborg, Christian; Jensen, Frank Søndergaard

    2016-01-01

    This article examined value orientations toward wildlife among the adult general Danish public in relation to age, sex, past and present residence, education, and income, using a U.S. survey instrument on Wildlife Value Orientations (WVO). The study used an Internet-based questionnaire sent...

  6. Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Flint, Paul L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Koch, Joshua C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Oakley, Karen L.; Pearce, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions.

  7. Evaluation of soil loss estimation using the RUSLE model and SCS-CN method in hillslope mining areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayan Kayet

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Mining operations result in the generation of barren land and spoil heaps which are subject to high erosion rate during the rainy season. The present study uses the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number process to estimate in Kiruburu and Meghahatuburu mining sites areas. The geospatial model of annual average soil loss rate was determined by integrating environmental variables parameters in a raster pixels-based GIS framework. GIS layers with, rainfall passivity and runoff erosivity (R, soil erodibility (K, slope length and steepness (LS, cover management(C and conservation practice (P factors were calculated to determine their effects on annual soil erosion in the study area. The coefficient of determination (r2 was 0.834, which indicates a strong correlation of soil loss with runoff and rainfall. Sub -watersheds 5,9,10 and 2 experienced high level of highly runoff. Average annual soil loss was calculated (30*30 m raster grid cell to determine the critical soil loss areas (Sub-watershed 9 and 5. Total soil erosion area was classified into five class, slight (10,025 ha, moderate (3125 ha, high (973 ha, very high (260 ha and severe (53 ha. The resulting map shows greatest soil erosion of >40 t h-1 y-1 (severe through connection to grassland, degraded and open forestry on the erect mining side-escutcheon. The Landsat pan sharpening image and DGPS survey field data were used in the verification of soil erosion results.

  8. Estimation of Annual Average Soil Loss, Based on Rusle Model in Kallar Watershed, Bhavani Basin, Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahaman, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.; Ajeez, S. Abdul

    2015-10-01

    Soil erosion is a widespread environmental challenge faced in Kallar watershed nowadays. Erosion is defined as the movement of soil by water and wind, and it occurs in Kallar watershed under a wide range of land uses. Erosion by water can be dramatic during storm events, resulting in wash-outs and gullies. It can also be insidious, occurring as sheet and rill erosion during heavy rains. Most of the soil lost by water erosion is by the processes of sheet and rill erosion. Land degradation and subsequent soil erosion and sedimentation play a significant role in impairing water resources within sub watersheds, watersheds and basins. Using conventional methods to assess soil erosion risk is expensive and time consuming. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), coupled with the use of an empirical model (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation- RUSLE) to assess risk, can identify and assess soil erosion potential and estimate the value of soil loss. GIS data layers including, rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodability (K), slope length and steepness (LS), cover management (C) and conservation practice (P) factors were computed to determine their effects on average annual soil loss in the study area. The final map of annual soil erosion shows a maximum soil loss of 398.58 t/ h-1/ y-1. Based on the result soil erosion was classified in to soil erosion severity map with five classes, very low, low, moderate, high and critical respectively. Further RUSLE factors has been broken into two categories, soil erosion susceptibility (A=RKLS), and soil erosion hazard (A=RKLSCP) have been computed. It is understood that functions of C and P are factors that can be controlled and thus can greatly reduce soil loss through management and conservational measures.

  9. Lungworm outbreaks in adult dairy cows: estimating economic losses and lessons to be learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzhauer, M; van Schaik, G; Saatkamp, H W; Ploeger, H W

    2011-11-05

    Two lungworm outbreaks in dairy herds were investigated in order to estimate the resulting economic costs. On the two farms, with 110 and 95 cows, total costs were estimated at €159 and €167 per cow, respectively. Overall, milk production reduced by 15 to 20 per cent during the outbreaks. Five cows died on one farm, while on the other farm seven cows died as a result of the lungworm outbreak. On one farm, 51.7 per cent of the total costs was due to reduced milk production and 33.1 per cent was due to disposal of dead animals. On the other farm, it was 36.3 and 50.9 per cent, respectively. The remaining 13 to 15 per cent of the total costs were due to extra inseminations, laboratory diagnosis and treatments. The history and development of the outbreaks are described. One lesson from these outbreaks is that recognising that potentially lungworm-naïve animals are to be introduced into the adult herd allows for timely measures (for example, vaccination) to prevent a lungworm outbreak.

  10. A new approach to flood loss estimation and vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.

    2013-10-01

    The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is proposed that studies the nature of vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide key findings and guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of key vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. This in turn facilitates the production of strategies for mitigating and managing the losses threatened by such extreme climate events.

  11. Uncertainties and constraints on breaching and their implications for flood loss estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir Wood, Robert; Bateman, William

    2005-06-15

    Around the coasts of the southern North Sea, flood risk is mediated everywhere by the performance of natural and man-made flood defences. Under the conditions of extreme surge with tide water levels, the performance of the defences determines the extent of inland flooding. Sensitivity tests reveal the enormous increase in the volume of water that can pass through a defence once breaching is initiated, with a 1m reduction in sill elevation doubling the loss. Empirical observations of defence performance in major storm surges around the North Sea reveal some of the principal controls on breaching. For the same defence type, the maximum size and depth of a breach is a function of the integral of the hydraulic gradient across the defence, which is in turn determined by the elevation of the floodplain and the degree to which water can continue to flow inland away from the breach. The most extensive and lowest floodplains thereby "generate" the largest breaches. For surges that approach the crest height, the weaker the protection of the defence, the greater the number of breaches. Defence reinforcement reduces both the number and size of the breaches.

  12. Estimating surface soil erosion losses and mapping erosion risk for Yusufeli micro-catchment (Artvin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Tüfekçioğlu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Sheet erosion, one of the most important types of water erosion, takes place on the top soil as tiny soil layer movement that affects lake and stream ecosystem. This type of erosion is very important because the productive soil layer on the top soil can be lost in a very short period of time. The goal of this study was to quantify the amount of surface (sheet and rill soil erosion, and to identify areas under high erosion risk within the study area at Yusufeli province in Artvin by using RUSLE erosion methodology. As a result of the study it was found that the average annual potential soil loss by surface erosion was 3.6 ton ha-1yr-1. Additionally, the maps produced and conclusions reached by the study revealed that the areas of high erosion risk were identified spatially and measures to control erosion on some of these high risk areas can be possible with appropriate erosion control techniques.

  13. Estimated crop loss due to coconut mite and financial analysis of controlling the pest using the acaricide abamectin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezende, Daniela; Melo, José W S; Oliveira, José E M; Gondim, Manoel G C

    2016-07-01

    Reducing the losses caused by Aceria guerreronis Keifer has been an arduous task for farmers. However, there are no detailed studies on losses that simultaneously analyse correlated parameters, and very few studies that address the economic viability of chemical control, the main strategy for managing this pest. In this study the objectives were (1) to estimate the crop loss due to coconut mite and (2) to perform a financial analysis of acaricide application to control the pest. For this, the following parameters were evaluated: number and weight of fruits, liquid albumen volume, and market destination of plants with and without monthly abamectin spraying (three harvests). The costs involved in the chemical control of A. guerreronis were also quantified. Higher A. guerreronis incidence on plants resulted in a 60 % decrease in the mean number of fruits harvested per bunch and a 28 % decrease in liquid albumen volume. Mean fruit weight remained unaffected. The market destination of the harvested fruit was also affected by higher A. guerreronis incidence. Untreated plants, with higher A. guerreronis infestation intensity, produced a lower proportion of fruit intended for fresh market and higher proportions of non-marketable fruit and fruit intended for industrial processing. Despite the costs involved in controlling A. guerreronis, the difference between the profit from the treated site and the untreated site was 18,123.50 Brazilian Real; this value represents 69.1 % higher profit at the treated site.

  14. Loss tangent and complex modulus estimated by acoustic radiation force creep and shear wave dispersion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amador, Carolina; Urban, Matthew W; Chen, Shigao; Greenleaf, James F

    2012-03-07

    Elasticity imaging methods have been used to study tissue mechanical properties and have demonstrated that tissue elasticity changes with disease state. In current shear wave elasticity imaging methods typically only shear wave speed is measured and rheological models, e.g. Kelvin-Voigt, Maxwell and Standard Linear Solid, are used to solve for tissue mechanical properties such as the shear viscoelastic complex modulus. This paper presents a method to quantify viscoelastic material properties in a model-independent way by estimating the complex shear elastic modulus over a wide frequency range using time-dependent creep response induced by acoustic radiation force. This radiation force induced creep method uses a conversion formula that is the analytic solution of a constitutive equation. The proposed method in combination with shearwave dispersion ultrasound vibrometry is used to measure the complex modulus so that knowledge of the applied radiation force magnitude is not necessary. The conversion formula is shown to be sensitive to sampling frequency and the first reliable measure in time according to numerical simulations using the Kelvin-Voigt model creep strain and compliance. Representative model-free shear complex moduli from homogeneous tissue mimicking phantoms and one excised swine kidney were obtained. This work proposes a novel model-free ultrasound-based elasticity method that does not require a rheological model with associated fitting requirements.

  15. Estimation of single-year-of-age counts of live births, fetal losses, abortions, and pregnant women for counties of Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Bismark; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-05-08

    We provide a methodology for estimating counts of single-year-of-age live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women from aggregated age-group counts. As a case study, we estimate counts for the 254 counties of Texas for the year 2010. We use interpolation to estimate counts of live-births, fetal-losses, and abortions by women of each single-year-of-age for all Texas counties. We then use these counts to estimate the numbers of pregnant women for each single-year-of-age, which were previously available only in aggregate. To support public health policy and planning, we provide single-year-of-age estimates of live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women for all Texas counties in the year 2010, as well as the estimation method source code.

  16. Wildlife Inventory, Craig Mountain, Idaho.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassirer, E. Frances

    1995-06-01

    Wildlife distribution/abundance were studied at this location during 1993 and 1994 to establish the baseline as part of the wildlife mitigation agreement for construction of Dworshak reservoir. Inventory efforts were designed to (1) document distribution/abundance of 4 target species: pileated woodpecker, yellow warbler, black-capped chickadee, and river otter, (2) determine distribution/abundance of rare animals, and (3) determine presence and relative abundance of all other species except deer and elk. 201 wildlife species were observed during the survey period; most were residents or used the area seasonally for breeding or wintering. New distribution or breeding records were established for at least 6 species. Pileated woodpeckers were found at 35% of 134 survey points in upland forests; estimated densities were 0-0.08 birds/ha, averaging 0.02 birds/ha. Yellow warblers were found in riparian areas and shrubby draws below 3500 ft elev., and were most abundant in white alder plant communities (ave. est. densities 0.2-2. 1 birds/ha). Black-capped chickadees were found in riparian and mixed tall shrub vegetation at all elevations (ave. est. densities 0-0.7 birds/ha). River otters and suitable otter denning and foraging habitat were observed along the Snake and Salmon rivers. 15 special status animals (threatened, endangered, sensitive, state species of special concern) were observed at Craig Mt: 3 amphibians, 1 reptile, 8 birds, 3 mammals. Another 5 special status species potentially occur (not documented). Ecosystem-based wildlife management issues are identified. A monitoring plant is presented for assessing effects of mitigation activities.

  17. Oregon Trust Agreement Planning Project : Potential Mitigations to the Impacts on Oregon Wildlife Resources Associated with Relevant Mainstem Columbia River and Willamette River Hydroelectric Projects.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1993-10-01

    A coalition of the Oregon wildlife agencies and tribes (the Oregon Wildlife Mitigation Coalition) have forged a cooperative effort to promote wildlife mitigation from losses to Oregon wildlife resources associated with the four mainstream Columbia River and the eight Willamette River Basin hydroelectric projects. This coalition formed a Joint Advisory Committee, made up of technical representatives from all of the tribes and agencies, to develop this report. The goal was to create a list of potential mitigation opportunities by priority, and to attempt to determine the costs of mitigating the wildlife losses. The information and analysis was completed for all projects in Oregon, but was gathered separately for the Lower Columbia and Willamette Basin projects. The coalition developed a procedure to gather information on potential mitigation projects and opportunities. All tribes, agencies and interested parties were contacted in an attempt to evaluate all proposed or potential mitigation. A database was developed and minimum criteria were established for opportunities to be considered. These criteria included the location of the mitigation site within a defined area, as well as other criteria established by the Northwest Power Planning Council. Costs were established for general habitats within the mitigation area, based on estimates from certified appraisers. An analysis of the cost effectiveness of various types of mitigation projects was completed. Estimates of operation and maintenance costs were also developed. The report outlines strategies for gathering mitigation potentials, evaluating them, determining their costs, and attempting to move towards their implementation.

  18. Biomass burning losses of carbon estimated from ecosystem modeling and satellite data analysis for the Brazilian Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Christopher; Brooks Genovese, Vanessa; Klooster, Steven; Bobo, Matthew; Torregrosa, Alicia

    To produce a new daily record of gross carbon emissions from biomass burning events and post-burning decomposition fluxes in the states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE), 1991. Anuario Estatistico do Brasil, Vol. 51. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil pp. 1-1024). We have used vegetation greenness estimates from satellite images as inputs to a terrestrial ecosystem production model. This carbon allocation model generates new estimates of regional aboveground vegetation biomass at 8-km resolution. The modeled biomass product is then combined for the first time with fire pixel counts from the advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) to overlay regional burning activities in the Amazon. Results from our analysis indicate that carbon emission estimates from annual region-wide sources of deforestation and biomass burning in the early 1990s are apparently three to five times higher than reported in previous studies for the Brazilian Legal Amazon (Houghton et al., 2000. Nature 403, 301-304; Fearnside, 1997. Climatic Change 35, 321-360), i.e., studies which implied that the Legal Amazon region tends toward a net-zero annual source of terrestrial carbon. In contrast, our analysis implies that the total source fluxes over the entire Legal Amazon region range from 0.2 to 1.2 Pg C yr -1, depending strongly on annual rainfall patterns. The reasons for our higher burning emission estimates are (1) use of combustion fractions typically measured during Amazon forest burning events for computing carbon losses, (2) more detailed geographic distribution of vegetation biomass and daily fire activity for the region, and (3) inclusion of fire effects in extensive areas of the Legal Amazon covered by open woodland, secondary forests, savanna, and pasture vegetation. The total area of rainforest estimated annually to be deforested did not differ substantially among the previous analyses cited and our own.

  19. General Constraints on Sampling Wildlife on FIA Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larissa L. Bailey; John R. Sauer; James D. Nichols; Paul H. Geissler

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews the constraints to sampling wildlife populations at FIA points. Wildlife sampling programs must have well-defined goals and provide information adequate to meet those goals. Investigators should choose a State variable based on information needs and the spatial sampling scale. We discuss estimation-based methods for three State variables: species...

  20. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  1. Tilting at wildlife: reconsidering human-wildlife conflict

    OpenAIRE

    Redpath, Stephen Mark; Bhatia, Saloni; Young, Juliette

    2015-01-01

    Conflicts between people over wildlife are widespread and damaging to both the wildlife and people involved. Such issues are often termed human–wildlife conflicts. We argue that this term is misleading and may exacerbate the problems and hinder resolution. A review of 100 recent articles on human–wildlife conflicts reveals that 97 were between conservation and other human activities, particularly those associated with livelihoods. We suggest that we should distinguish between human–wildlife i...

  2. Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan – a data integration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Okada

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data – census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data – this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US$ 12.5 billion. Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like

  3. VT Wildlife Crossing Value

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) WCV describes the value of the Wildlife Habitat Suitability as it approaches the state highway system. This analysis was designed to use the...

  4. Fish and wildlife surveillance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poston, T.M.

    1995-06-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the monitoring of radioactive contaminants in fish and wildlife species that inhabit the Colombia River and Hanford Site. Wildlife have access to areas of the Site containing radioactive contamination, and fish can be exposed to contamination in spring water entering the river along the shoreline. Therefore, samples are collected at various locations annually, generally during the hunting or fishing season, for selected species.

  5. Fish and wildlife surveillance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poston, T.M.

    1995-01-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the monitoring of radioactive contaminants in fish and wildlife species that inhabit the Colombia River and Hanford Site. Wildlife have access to areas of the Site containing radioactive contamination, and fish can be exposed to contamination in spring water entering the river along the shoreline. Therefore, samples are collected at various locations annually, generally during the hunting or fishing season, for selected species

  6. Foodborne parasites from wildlife

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kapel, Christian Moliin Outzen; Fredensborg, Brian Lund

    2015-01-01

    The majority of wild foods consumed by humans are sourced from intensively managed or semi-farmed populations. Management practices inevitably affect wildlife density and habitat characteristics, which are key elements in the transmission of parasites. We consider the risk of transmission...... of foodborne parasites to humans from wildlife maintained under natural or semi-natural conditions. A deeper understanding will be useful in counteracting foodborne parasites arising from the growing industry of novel and exotic foods....

  7. Tuberculosis in Tanzanian wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleaveland, S; Mlengeya, T; Kazwala, R R; Michel, A; Kaare, M T; Jones, S L; Eblate, E; Shirima, G M; Packer, C

    2005-04-01

    Bovine tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is a pathogen of growing concern in free-ranging wildlife in Africa, but little is known about the disease in Tanzanian wildlife. Here, we report the infection status of Mycobacterium bovis in a range of wildlife species sampled from protected areas in northern Tanzania. M. bovis was isolated from 11.1% (2/18) migratory wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) and 11.1% (1/9) topi (Damaliscus lunatus) sampled systematically in 2000 during a meat cropping program in the Serengeti ecosystem, and from one wildebeest and one lesser kudu (Tragelaphus imberbis) killed by sport hunters adjacent to Tarangire National Park. A tuberculosis antibody enzyme immunoassay (EIA) was used to screen serum samples collected from 184 Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) and 19 lions from Ngorongoro Crater sampled between 1985 and 2000. Samples from 212 ungulates collected throughout the protected area network between 1998 and 2001 also were tested by EIA. Serological assays detected antibodies to M. bovis in 4% of Serengeti lions; one positive lion was sampled in 1984. Antibodies were detected in one of 17 (6%) buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in Tarangire and one of 41 (2%) wildebeest in the Serengeti. This study confirms for the first time the presence of bovine tuberculosis in wildlife of northern Tanzania, but further investigation is required to assess the impact on wildlife populations and the role of different wildlife species in maintenance and transmission.

  8. Recurrent anterior shoulder instability: accuracy of estimations of glenoid bone loss with computed tomography is insufficient for therapeutic decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huijsmans, Polydoor Emile [Haga Hospital, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, The Hague (Netherlands); Witte, Pieter Bas de [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Leiden (Netherlands); Villiers, Richard V.P. de; Kruger, Niel Ruben [Van Wageningen and Partners, Radiology Department, Somerset West (South Africa); Wolterbeek, Derk Willem; Warmerdam, Piet [Haga Hospital, Department of Radiology, The Hague (Netherlands); Beer, Joe F. de [Cape Shoulder Institute, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Cape Town (South Africa)

    2011-10-15

    To evaluate the reliability of glenoid bone loss estimations based on either axial computed tomography (CT) series or single sagittal (''en face'' to glenoid) CT reconstructions, and to assess their accuracy by comparing with actual CT-based bone loss measurements, in patients with anterior glenohumeral instability. In two separate series of patients diagnosed with recurrent anterior glenohumeral instability, glenoid bone loss was estimated on axial CT series and on the most lateral sagittal (en face) glenoid view by two blinded radiologists. Additionally, in the second series of patients, glenoid defects were measured on sagittal CT reconstructions by an independent observer. In both series, larger defects were estimated when based on sagittal CT images compared to axial views. In the second series, mean measured bone loss was 11.5% (SD = 6.0) of the total original glenoid area, with estimations of 9.6% (SD = 7.2) and 7.8% (SD = 4.2) for sagittal and axial views, respectively. Correlations of defect estimations with actual measurements were fair to poor; glenoid defects tended to be underestimated, especially when based on axial views. CT-based estimations of glenoid bone defects are inaccurate. Especially for axial views, there is a high chance of glenoid defect underestimation. When using glenoid bone loss quantification in therapeutic decision-making, measuring the defect instead of estimating is strongly advised. (orig.)

  9. Wildlife mitigation program. Draft environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-08-01

    Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) is responsible for mitigating the loss of wildlife habitat caused by the development of the Federal Columbia River Power System. BPA accomplishes this mitigation by funding projects consistent with those recommended by the Northwest Power Planning Council (Council). The projects are submitted to the Council from Indian Tribes, state agencies, property owners, private conservation groups, and other Federal agencies. Future wildlife mitigation actions with potential environmental impacts are expected to include land acquisition and management, water rights acquisition and management, habitat restoration and enhancement, installation of watering devices, riparian fencing, and similar wildlife conservation actions. BPA needs to ensure that individual wildlife mitigation projects are planned and managed with appropriate consistency across projects, jurisdictions, and ecosystems, as well as across time. BPA proposes to standardize the planning and implementation of individual wildlife mitigation projects funded by BPA. Alternative 1 is the No Action alternative. Five standardizing alternatives are identified to represent the range of possible strategies, goals, and procedural requirements reasonably applicable to BPA-funded projects under a standardized approach to project planning and implementation. All action alternatives are based on a single project planning process designed to resolve site-specific issues in an ecosystem context and to adapt to changing conditions and information

  10. Wildlife mitigation program final environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-03-01

    BPA is responsible for mitigating the loss of wildlife habitat caused by the development of the Federal Columbia River Power System. BPA accomplishes this mitigation by funding projects consistent with those recommended by the Northwest Power Planning Council (Council). The projects are submitted to the Council from Indian Tribes, state agencies, property owners, private conservation groups, and other Federal agencies. future wildlife mitigation actions with potential environmental impacts are expected to include land acquisition and management, water rights acquisition and management, habitat restoration and improvement, installation of watering devices, riparian fencing, and similar wildlife conservation actions. BPA needs to ensure that individual wildlife mitigation projects are planned and managed with appropriate consistency across projects, jurisdictions, and ecosystems, as well as across time. BPA proposes to standardize the planning and implementation of individual wildlife mitigation projects funded by BPA. Alternative 1 is the No Action alternative, i.e., not to establish program-wide standards. Five standardizing (action) alternatives are identified to represent the range of possible strategies, goals, and procedural requirements reasonably applicable to BPA-funded projects under a standardized approach to project planning and implementation. All action alternatives are based on a single project planning process designed to resolve site-specific issues in an ecosystem context and to adapt to changing conditions and information

  11. ESTIMATION OF DECREASING LOSSES OF ACTIVE POWER IN TRANSFORMERS IN SETTING BATTERY OF LOW-VOLTAGE CAPACITORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Radkevich

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an estimation method of decreasing losses of active power in power transformers with voltage 10(6/0,4 kV after installation of devices of reactive power compensation on output side depending on voltage level, connected to capacity devices, taking into account dielectric loss in capacitors. Analysis of functional dependences was carried out. Investigation of function with a help of derivations was carried out. Points of function extremum and also its intervals of rise and fall rates were founded. This paper describes graphic investigation of obtained functional dependence, which is introduced by quartic polynominal. It is established that decreasing of losses of active power depends on technical parameters and load factor of transformer, coefficient of loading power of electricity consumers, voltage value connected to capacitor unit.Using obtained functional dependences, calculations for the main size-types of power transformers with voltage 10(6/0,4 kV serie ТМГ 11 and ТМГ12 were done. It is established that depending on technical characteristics of certain transformer, coefficient of its loading and power, there is a definite value of deviation of real voltage value from working voltage of capacitor installation when it will be observed positive technical and economical effect from installed capacitor battery unit. For taken value of loading coefficient and transformer’s power the maximum decrease of losses of active power takes place under voltage directed to capacitor unit, which is lower then nominal value. For all taken size-types of power transformers the argument of investigating function for its maximal value is out of standard permissible of voltage deviations from nominal value.These functional dependents can be used for preliminary calculations, which are needed for making decision on compensation of reactive power in electric power supply systems of industrial objects. Their consideration allows more

  12. Rainwater Wildlife Area Management Plan Executive Summary : A Columbia Basin Wildlife Mitigation Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Childs, Allen B.

    2002-02-01

    access. During the past two years, non-Indian public concern over big game hunting issues has at times overwhelmed other issues related to the wildlife area. In 2001, the CTUIR Fish and Wildlife Committee closed the wildlife area to tribal branch antlered bull elk harvest in response to harvest data that indicated harvest rates were greater than expected. In addition, illegal harvest of mature bull elk in southeastern Washington during the 2001 season exceeded the legal tribal and nontribal harvest combined which has created a potential significant regression in the bull;cow ratio in the Blue Mountain Elk herd. CTUIR Fish and Wildlife Committee and staff and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Regional Director and staff have been coordinating regularly to develop strategies to address harvest rates and ensure protection of viable big game herds in southeastern Washington. The CTUIR Fish and Wildlife Committee and WDFW has jointly agreed to continue close coordination on this and other issues and continue working together to ensure the long-term vigor of the elk herd on the Rainwater Wildlife Area. The purpose of the project is to protect, enhance, and mitigate fish and wildlife resources impacted by Columbia River Basin hydroelectric development. The effort is one of several wildlife mitigation projects in the region developed to compensate for terrestrial habitat losses resulting from the construction of McNary and John Day Hydroelectric facilities located on the mainstem Columbia River. While this project is driven primarily by the purpose and need to mitigate for wildlife habitat losses, it is also recognized that management strategies will also benefit many other non-target fish and wildlife species and associated natural resources.

  13. The Use of Camera Traps in Wildlife

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasin Uçarlı

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Camera traps are increasingly used in the abundance and density estimates of wildlife species. Camera traps are very good alternative for direct observation in case, particularly, steep terrain, dense vegetation covered areas or nocturnal species. The main reason for the use of camera traps is eliminated that the economic, personnel and time loss in a continuous manner at the same time in different points. Camera traps, motion and heat sensitive, can take a photo or video according to the models. Crossover points and feeding or mating areas of the focal species are addressed as a priority camera trap set locations. The population size can be finding out by the images combined with Capture-Recapture methods. The population density came out the population size divided to effective sampling area size. Mating and breeding season, habitat choice, group structures and survival rates of the focal species can be achieved from the images. Camera traps are very useful to obtain the necessary data about the particularly mysterious species with economically in planning and conservation efforts.

  14. Utilization of the cropgro-soybean model to estimate yield loss caused by Asian rust in cultivars with different cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael de Ávila Rodrigues

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, crop models have increasingly been used to simulate agricultural features. The DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer is an important tool in modeling growth; however, one of its limitations is related to the unaccounted-for effect of diseases. Therefore, the goals of this study were to calibrate and validate the CSM CROPGRO-Soybean for the soybean cultivars M-SOY 6101 and MG/BR 46 (Conquista, analyze the performance and the effect of Asian soybean rust on these cultivars under the environmental conditions of Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The experimental data for the evaluation, testing, and adjustment of the genetic coefficients for the cultivars, M-SOY 6101 and MG/BR 46 (Conquista, were obtained during the 2006/2007, 2007/2008 and 2009/2010 growing seasons. GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation was used for the estimation of the genetic coefficients, and pedotransfer functions have been utilized to estimate the physical characteristics of the soil. For all of the sowing dates, the early season cultivar, M-SOY 6101, exhibited a lower variance in yield, which represents more stability with regard to the interannual climate variability, i.e., the farmers who use this cultivar will have in 50% of the crop years analyzed, a higher yield than a late-season cultivar. The MG/BR 46 (Conquista cultivar demonstrated a greater probability of obtaining higher yield in years with favorable weather conditions. However, in the presence of the Asian soybean rust, yield is heavily affected. The early cultivar, M-SOY 6101, showed a lower risk of being affected by the rust and consequently exhibited less yield loss considering the scenario D90 (condensation on the leaf surface occurs when the relative humidity is greater than or equal to 90%, for a sowing date of November 14.

  15. Stochastic LMP (Locational marginal price) calculation method in distribution systems to minimize loss and emission based on Shapley value and two-point estimate method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azad-Farsani, Ehsan; Agah, S.M.M.; Askarian-Abyaneh, Hossein; Abedi, Mehrdad; Hosseinian, S.H.

    2016-01-01

    LMP (Locational marginal price) calculation is a serious impediment in distribution operation when private DG (distributed generation) units are connected to the network. A novel policy is developed in this study to guide distribution company (DISCO) to exert its control over the private units when power loss and green-house gases emissions are minimized. LMP at each DG bus is calculated according to the contribution of the DG to the reduced amount of loss and emission. An iterative algorithm which is based on the Shapley value method is proposed to allocate loss and emission reduction. The proposed algorithm will provide a robust state estimation tool for DISCOs in the next step of operation. The state estimation tool provides the decision maker with the ability to exert its control over private DG units when loss and emission are minimized. Also, a stochastic approach based on the PEM (point estimate method) is employed to capture uncertainty in the market price and load demand. The proposed methodology is applied to a realistic distribution network, and efficiency and accuracy of the method are verified. - Highlights: • Reduction of the loss and emission at the same time. • Fair allocation of loss and emission reduction. • Estimation of the system state using an iterative algorithm. • Ability of DISCOs to control DG units via the proposed policy. • Modeling the uncertainties to calculate the stochastic LMP.

  16. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss of a building portfolio based on hailfall intensity determined by radar measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aller, D.; Hohl, R.; Mair, F.; Schiesser, H.-H.

    2003-04-01

    Extreme hailfall can cause massive damage to building structures. For the insurance and reinsurance industry it is essential to estimate the probable maximum hail loss of their portfolio. The probable maximum loss (PML) is usually defined with a return period of 1 in 250 years. Statistical extrapolation has a number of critical points, as historical hail loss data are usually only available from some events while insurance portfolios change over the years. At the moment, footprints are derived from historical hail damage data. These footprints (mean damage patterns) are then moved over a portfolio of interest to create scenario losses. However, damage patterns of past events are based on the specific portfolio that was damaged during that event and can be considerably different from the current spread of risks. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss to a building portfolio is presented. It is shown that footprints derived from historical damages are different to footprints of hail kinetic energy calculated from radar reflectivity measurements. Based on the relationship between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings, scenario losses can be calculated. A systematic motion of the hail kinetic energy footprints over the underlying portfolio creates a loss set. It is difficult to estimate the return period of losses calculated with footprints derived from historical damages being moved around. To determine the return periods of the hail kinetic energy footprints over Switzerland, 15 years of radar measurements and 53 years of agricultural hail losses are available. Based on these data, return periods of several types of hailstorms were derived for different regions in Switzerland. The loss set is combined with the return periods of the event set to obtain an exceeding frequency curve, which can be used to derive the PML.

  17. A Sample-Based Forest Monitoring Strategy Using Landsat, AVHRR and MODIS Data to Estimate Gross Forest Cover Loss in Malaysia between 1990 and 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Potapov

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Insular Southeast Asia is a hotspot of humid tropical forest cover loss. A sample-based monitoring approach quantifying forest cover loss from Landsat imagery was implemented to estimate gross forest cover loss for two eras, 1990–2000 and 2000–2005. For each time interval, a probability sample of 18.5 km × 18.5 km blocks was selected, and pairs of Landsat images acquired per sample block were interpreted to quantify forest cover area and gross forest cover loss. Stratified random sampling was implemented for 2000–2005 with MODIS-derived forest cover loss used to define the strata. A probability proportional to x (πpx design was implemented for 1990–2000 with AVHRR-derived forest cover loss used as the x variable to increase the likelihood of including forest loss area in the sample. The estimated annual gross forest cover loss for Malaysia was 0.43 Mha/yr (SE = 0.04 during 1990–2000 and 0.64 Mha/yr (SE = 0.055 during 2000–2005. Our use of the πpx sampling design represents a first practical trial of this design for sampling satellite imagery. Although the design performed adequately in this study, a thorough comparative investigation of the πpx design relative to other sampling strategies is needed before general design recommendations can be put forth.

  18. The combined use of Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for loss estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroselli, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Romano, N.

    2012-12-01

    The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model widely used to estimate losses and direct runoff from a given rainfall event, but its use is not appropriate at sub-daily time resolution. To overcome this drawback, a mixed procedure, referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), was recently developed including the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model and aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method. The main concept of the proposed mixed procedure is to use the initial abstraction and the total volume given by the SCS-CN to calibrate the Green-Ampt soil hydraulic conductivity parameter. The procedure is here applied on a real case study and a sensitivity analysis concerning the remaining parameters is presented; results show that CN4GA approach is an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess analysis at sub-daily time resolution, in particular for ungauged basin lacking of discharge observations.

  19. NORTHWOODS Wildlife Habitat Data Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark D. Nelson; Janine M. Benyus; Richard R. Buech

    1992-01-01

    Wildlife habitat data from seven Great Lakes National Forests were combined into a wildlife-habitat matrix named NORTHWOODS. Several electronic file formats of NORTHWOODS data base and documentation are available on floppy disks for microcomputers.

  20. Evaluation of the 137Cs technique for estimating wind erosion losses for some sandy Western Australian soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, R.J.; Gilkes, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    The utility of the caesium-137 technique, for estimating the effects of wind erosion, was evaluated on the soils of a semi-arid agricultural area near Jerramungup, Western Australia. The past incidence of wind erosion was estimated from field observations of soil profile morphology and an existing remote sensing study. Erosion was limited to sandy surfaced soils (0-4% clay), with a highly significant difference (P 137 Cs values between eroded and non-eroded sandy soils, with mean values of 243±17 and 386±13 Bq m -2 respectively. Non-eroded soils, with larger clay contents, had a mean 137 Cs content of 421±26 Bq m -2 , however, due to considerable variation between replicate samples, this value was not significantly different from that of the non-eroded sands. Hence, although the technique discriminates between eroded and non-eroded areas, the large variation in 137 Cs values means that from 27 to 96 replicate samples are required to provide statistically valid estimates of 137 Cs loss. The occurrence of around 18% of the total 137 Cs between 10 and 20 cm depth in these soils, despite cultivation being confined to the surface 9 cm, suggests that leaching of 137 Cs occurs in the sandy soils, although there was no relationship between clay content and 137 Cs value for either eroded or non-eroded soils. In a multiple linear regression, organic carbon content and the mean grain size of the eroded soils explained 35% of the variation in 137 Cs content. This relationship suggests that both organic carbon and 137 Cs are removed by erosion, with erosion being more prevalent on soils with a finer sand fraction. Clay and silt contents do not vary with depth in the near-surface horizons of the eroded sandy soils, hence it is likely that wind erosion strips the entire surface horizon with its 137 Cs content, rather than selectively winnowing fine material. 71 refs., 6 tabs., 2 fig

  1. Body composition during weight loss in obese patients estimated by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry and by total body potassium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendel, H W; Gotfredsen, A; Andersen, T

    1996-01-01

    for FFM were strong (r = 0.92 and 0.93). Bland and Altman plots showed limits of agreement of +/-9 kg before and after weight loss; DXA underestimated FFM in women and overestimated FFM in men. DXA accounted for 80% of the lost body weight. The composition of the lost body mass did not differ from...... that estimated by TBK (7.6% FFM and 92.4% FM by TBK; 11% FFM and 89% FM by DXA). CONCLUSION: DXA estimates accurately the body composition and the composition of weight loss in groups of obese subjects. However, the scan table may be too small for patients weighing more than 95 kg....

  2. Science and Civics: Sustaining Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Council for Environmental Education, 2011

    2011-01-01

    Project WILD's new high school curriculum, "Science and Civics: Sustaining Wildlife", is designed to serve as a guide for involving students in environmental action projects aimed at benefitting the local wildlife found in a community. It involves young people in decisions affecting people, wildlife, and their shared habitat in the community. The…

  3. Oak woodlands as wildlife habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Tietje; K. Purcell; S. Drill

    2005-01-01

    This chapter provides local planners and policymakers with information on the diversity and abundance of oak woodland wildlife, wildlife habitat needs, and how local planning activities can influence wildlife abundance and diversity. Federal and state laws, particularly the federal and California Endangered Species Act and the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA...

  4. Great Basin wildlife disease concerns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ Mason

    2008-01-01

    In the Great Basin, wildlife diseases have always represented a significant challenge to wildlife managers, agricultural production, and human health and safety. One of the first priorities of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Division of Fish and Wildlife Services was Congressionally directed action to eradicate vectors for zoonotic disease, particularly rabies, in...

  5. Perceived damage and areas of needed research for wildlife pests of California agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Roger A; Salmon, Terrell P; Schmidt, Robert H; Timm, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Many wildlife species cause extensive damage to a variety of agricultural commodities in California, with estimates of damage in the hundreds of millions annually. Given the limited availability of resources to solve all human-wildlife conflicts, we should focus management efforts on issues that provide the greatest benefit to agricultural commodities in California. This survey provides quantitative data on research needs to better guide future efforts in developing more effective, practical and appropriate methods for managing these species. We found that ground squirrels, pocket gophers, birds, wild pigs, coyotes and voles were the most common agricultural wildlife pest species in California. The damage caused by these species could be quite high, but varied by agricultural commodity. For most species, common forms of damage included loss of crop production and direct death of the plant, although livestock depredation was the greatest concern for coyotes. Control methods used most frequently and those deemed most effective varied by pest species, although greater advancements in control methods were listed as a top research priority for all species. Collectively, the use of toxicants, biocontrol and trapping were the most preferred methods for control, but this varied by species. In general, integrated pest management practices were used to control wildlife pests, with a special preference for those approaches that were efficacious and quick and inexpensive to apply. This information and survey design should be useful in establishing research and management priorities for wildlife pest species in California and other similar regions. © 2013 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  6. TRAFFIC - Wildlife Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    growing in Eastern and Southern Africa in response to increased human populations and poverty. fuel-trees etc. Conversely, extreme poverty of others means they regard wildlife as a means to meet their short worldwide. You can also find us online in: mainland China, India, Japan, Taiwan TRAFFIC is a strategic

  7. Wildlife Mitigation and Restoration for Grand Coulee Dam: Blue Creek Project, Phase 1.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merker, Christopher

    1993-04-01

    This report is a recommendation from the Spokane Tribe to the Northwest Power Planning Council (NPPC) for partial mitigation for the extensive wildlife and wildlife habitat losses on the Spokane Indian Reservation caused by the construction of Grand Coulee Dam. NPPC`s interim wildlife goal over the next 7 years for the Columbia hydropower system, is to protect, mitigate and enhance approximately 35% basin wide of the lost habitat units. Grand Coulee Dam had the greatest habitat losses of any Dams of the Wildlife Rule.

  8. A review of the (Revised) Universal Soil Loss Equation (R/USLE): with a view to increasing its global applicability and improving soil loss estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Benavidez, Rubianca; Jackson, Bethanna; Maxwell, Deborah; Norton, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Soil erosion is a major problem around the world because of its effects on soil productivity, nutrient loss, siltation in water bodies, and degradation of water quality. By understanding the driving forces behind soil erosion, we can more easily identify erosion-prone areas within a landscape and use land management and other strategies to effectively manage the problem. Soil erosion models have been used to assist in this task. One of the most commonly used soil erosion models is the Univers...

  9. Validating the use of 137Cs and 210Pbex measurements to estimate rates of soil loss from cultivated land in southern Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E.

    2012-01-01

    Soil erosion represents an important threat to the long-term sustainability of agriculture and forestry in many areas of the world, including southern Italy. Numerous models and prediction procedures have been developed to estimate rates of soil loss and soil redistribution, based on the local topography, hydrometeorology, soil type and land management. However, there remains an important need for empirical measurements to provide a basis for validating and calibrating such models and prediction procedures as well as to support specific investigations and experiments. In this context, erosion plots provide useful information on gross rates of soil loss, but are unable to document the efficiency of the onward transfer of the eroded sediment within a field and towards the stream system, and thus net rates of soil loss from larger areas. The use of environmental radionuclides, particularly caesium-137 ( 137 Cs) and excess lead-210 ( 210 Pb ex ), as a means of estimating rates of soil erosion and deposition has attracted increasing attention in recent years and the approach has now been recognised as possessing several important advantages. In order to provide further confirmation of the validity of the estimates of longer-term erosion and soil redistribution rates provided by 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex measurements, there is a need for studies aimed explicitly at validating the results obtained. In this context, the authors directed attention to the potential offered by a set of small erosion plots located near Reggio Calabria in southern Italy, for validating estimates of soil loss provided by 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex measurements. A preliminary assessment suggested that, notwithstanding the limitations and constraints involved, a worthwhile investigation aimed at validating the use of 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex measurements to estimate rates of soil loss from cultivated land could be undertaken. The results demonstrate a close consistency between the measured rates of soil loss and

  10. Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

    2012-12-01

    We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be

  11. Wildlife tourism in Gonarezhou National Park, southeast Zimbabwe: opportunities for wildlife viewing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gandiwa, E.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to (i) estimate wild animal abundances, distribution and species diversity and (ii) examine the opportunities for wildlife viewing in major tourist areas in the southern part of Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), southeast Zimbabwe. In this study, road strip counts were used.

  12. Estimating and controlling chromatic aberration losses for two-junction, two-terminal devices in refractive concentrator systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, S.R. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); O`Neill, M.J. [ENTECH, Inc., Keller, TX (United States)

    1996-05-01

    Although previous studies have measured and calculated chromatic aberration losses and proposed methods for reducing these by modifying the optics, significant work remains to be done toward understanding how to quantity the losses and how various parameters affect this loss. This paper presents an analytical definition and calculation method for chromatic aberration losses. The effects of sheet resistance of the midlayers of the cell, total irradiance, incident spectrum, cell width, and diode quality factor are studied. A method for measuring the midlayer resistance in finished sells is described.

  13. The estimated reduction in the odds of loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles equipped with electronic stability control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Paul E; Woodrooffe, John

    2006-01-01

    Using data from the NASS General Estimates System (GES), the method of induced exposure was used to assess the effects of electronic stability control (ESC) on loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles. Sport utility vehicles were classified into crash types generally associated with loss of control and crash types most likely not associated with loss of control. Vehicles were then compared as to whether ESC technology was present or absent in the vehicles. A generalized additive model was fit to assess the effects of ESC, driver age, and driver gender on the odds of loss of control. In addition, the effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were compared to effects on roads that were dry. Overall, the estimated percentage reduction in the odds of a loss-of-control crash for sport utility vehicles equipped with ESC was 70.3%. Both genders and all age groups showed reduced odds of loss-of-control crashes, but there was no significant difference between males and females. With respect to driver age, the maximum percentage reduction of 73.6% occurred at age 27. The positive effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were significantly greater than on roads that were dry.

  14. A Model for Estimating Current and Future Timber Volume Loss from Stem Decay Caused by Heterobasidion annosum and Other Fungi in Stands of True Fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory M. Filip

    1989-01-01

    In 1979, an equation was developed to estimate the percentage of current and future timber volume loss due to stem decay caused by Heterobasidion annosum and other fungi in advance regeneration stands of grand and white fir in eastern Oregon and Washington. Methods for using and testing the equation are presented. Extensive testing in 1988 showed the...

  15. Estimation of phosphorous loss from agricultural land in the Heartland region of the U.S.A. using the APEX model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accurate phosphorus (P) loss estimation from agricultural land is important for development of best management practices and protection of water quality. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model is a powerful simulation model designed to simulate edge-of-field water, sediment, an...

  16. Estimation on the Pressure Loss of the Conceptual Primary Cooling System and Design of the Primary Cooling Pump for a Research Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Kyoung Woo; Oh, Jae Min; Park, Jong Hark; Chae, Hee Taek; Seo, Jae Kwang; Park, Cheon Tae; Yoon, Ju Hyeon; Lee, Doo Jeong

    2009-01-01

    A new conceptual primary cooling system (PCS) for a research reactor has been designed for an adequate cooling to the reactor core which has various powers ranging from 30MW through 80MW. The developed primary cooling system consisted of decay tanks, pumps, heat exchangers, vacuum breakers, some isolation and check valves, connection piping, and instruments. Because the system flow rate should be determined by the thermal hydraulic design analysis for the core, the heads to design the primary cooling pumps (PCPs) in a PCS will be estimated by the variable system flow rates. The heads of the part of a research reactor vessel was evaluated by the previous study. The various pressure losses of the PCS can be calculated by the dimensional analysis of the pipe flow and the head loss coefficient of the components. The purpose of this research is to estimate the various pressure losses and to design the PCPs

  17. Deforestation and hunting effects on wildlife across Amazonian indigenous lands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro de Araujo Lima. Constantino

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation and hunting are main wildlife threats in Amazonia, affecting the ecosystem and dwellers that rely on game meat. Data from 9109 hunted animals from 35 villages of 8 Pano indigenous lands in Brazilian Amazonia were used to build 4 indicators of wildlife status based on ecological models and to analyze the effects of deforestation, hunting pressure, and socioeconomic aspects on wildlife variation. Although variation in wildlife status indicated depletion in certain locations, hunters from most villages continued to hunt their preferred game after decades of intensive hunting. Indigenous hunting resulted in local depletion of species because of the dispersal of animals away from the source of hunting. This local effect can be explained by the permanent hunting of wildlife in the region, the behavior of Pano hunters, and the design and scale of this study analysis. Regionally, however, deforestation and associated factors are the cause of reduced population density and hunting success, extirpating sensitive species. Roads exacerbated hunting effects through disturbance, encroachment, and provision of access to livestock meat at markets. To avoid local depletion, indigenous people must review their subsistence hunting practices, whereas to achieve regional wildlife conservation and to maintain indigenous societies in Amazonia, wildlife habitat loss should be limited.

  18. Radioactivity and wildlife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, V.H.; Horrill, A.D.; Livens, F.R.

    1990-01-01

    The official assumption is that if levels of radioactivity are safe for humans, they are safe for wildlife too. NCC sponsored a research project by the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology to find out what was known in this field. It appears that the assumption is justified to a certain extent in that mammals are identified as the organisms most vulnerable to the damaging effects of radioactivity. Other general principles are put forward: where there are radioactive discharges to the marine environment, coastal muds and saltmarshes can be particularly contaminated; upland habitats, with low nutrient status and subject to high rainfall, are likely to accumulate radioactivity from atmospheric discharges (e.g. Chernobyl, the wildlife effects of which are reported here). The document concludes that no deleterious effects of radioactivity on wild plants and animals have been detected in the UK, but acknowledges that there are still many gaps in our knowledge of the behaviour of radioisotopes in the natural environment. (UK)

  19. Cystic echinococcosis in marketed offal of sheep in Basrah, Iraq: Abattoir-based survey and a probabilistic model estimation of the direct economic losses due to hydatid cyst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulhameed, Mohanad F; Habib, Ihab; Al-Azizz, Suzan A; Robertson, Ian

    2018-02-01

    Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a highly endemic parasitic zoonosis in Iraq with substantial impacts on livestock productivity and human health. The objectives of this study were to study the abattoir-based occurrence of CE in marketed offal of sheep in Basrah province, Iraq, and to estimate, using a probabilistic modelling approach, the direct economic losses due to hydatid cysts. Based on detailed visual meat inspection, results from an active abattoir survey in this study revealed detection of hydatid cysts in 7.3% (95% CI: 5.4; 9.6) of 631 examined sheep carcasses. Post-mortem lesions of hydatid cyst were concurrently present in livers and lungs of more than half (54.3% (25/46)) of the positive sheep. Direct economic losses due to hydatid cysts in marketed offal were estimated using data from government reports, the one abattoir survey completed in this study, and expert opinions of local veterinarians and butchers. A Monte-Carlo simulation model was developed in a spreadsheet utilizing Latin Hypercube sampling to account for uncertainty in the input parameters. The model estimated that the average annual economic losses associated with hydatid cysts in the liver and lungs of sheep marketed for human consumption in Basrah to be US$72,470 (90% Confidence Interval (CI); ±11,302). The mean proportion of annual losses in meat products value (carcasses and offal) due to hydatid cysts in the liver and lungs of sheep marketed in Basrah province was estimated as 0.42% (90% CI; ±0.21). These estimates suggest that CE is responsible for considerable livestock-associated monetary losses in the south of Iraq. These findings can be used to inform different regional CE control program options in Iraq.

  20. Estimation of Soil loss by USLE Model using GIS and Remote Sensing techniques: A case study of Muhuri River Basin, Tripura, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Bera

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion is a most severe environmental problem in humid sub-tropical hilly state Tripura. The present study is carried out on Muhuri river basin of Tripura state, North east India having an area of 614.54 Sq.km. In this paper, Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE model, with Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS have been used to quantify the soil loss in the Muhuri river basin. Five essential parameters such as Runoff-rainfall erosivity factor (R, soil erodibility Factor (K, slope length and steepness (LS, cropping management factor (C, and support practice factor (P have been used to estimate soil loss amount in the study area. All of these layers have been prepared in GIS and RS platform (Mainly Arc GIS 10.1 using various data sources and data preparation methods. In these study DEM and LISS satellite data have been used. The daily rainfall data (2001-2010 of 6 rain gauge stations have been used to predict the R factor. Soil erodibility (K factor in Basin area ranged from 0.15 to 0.36. The spatial distribution map of soil loss of Muhuri river basin has been generated and classified into six categories according to intensity level of soil loss. The average annual predicted soil loss ranges between 0 to and 650 t/ha/y. Low soil loss areas (70 t/ha/y of soil erosion was found along the main course of Muhuri River.

  1. Rainwater Wildlife Area, Watershed Management Plan, A Columbia Basin Wildlife Mitigation Project, 2002.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Childs, Allen B.

    2002-03-01

    to protect, enhance, and mitigate fish and wildlife resources impacted by Columbia River Basin hydroelectric development. The effort is one of several wildlife mitigation projects in the region developed to compensate for terrestrial habitat losses resulting from the construction of McNary and John Day Hydroelectric facilities located on the mainstem Columbia River. While this project is driven primarily by the purpose and need to mitigate for wildlife habitat losses, it is also recognized that management strategies will also benefit many other non-target fish and wildlife species and associated natural resources. The Rainwater project is much more than a wildlife project--it is a watershed project with potential to benefit resources at the watershed scale. Goals and objectives presented in the following sections include both mitigation and non-mitigation related goals and objectives.

  2. Species distributions models in wildlife planning: agricultural policy and wildlife management in the great plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Joseph J.; Jorgensen, Christopher; Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Zach, Eric S.; Decker, Karie L.

    2017-01-01

    We know economic and social policy has implications for ecosystems at large, but the consequences for a given geographic area or specific wildlife population are more difficult to conceptualize and communicate. Species distribution models, which extrapolate species-habitat relationships across ecological scales, are capable of predicting population changes in distribution and abundance in response to management and policy, and thus, are an ideal means for facilitating proactive management within a larger policy framework. To illustrate the capabilities of species distribution modeling in scenario planning for wildlife populations, we projected an existing distribution model for ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) onto a series of alternative future landscape scenarios for Nebraska, USA. Based on our scenarios, we qualitatively and quantitatively estimated the effects of agricultural policy decisions on pheasant populations across Nebraska, in specific management regions, and at wildlife management areas. 

  3. Accounting for density reduction and structural loss in standing dead trees: Implications for forest biomass and carbon stock estimates in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domke Grant M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Standing dead trees are one component of forest ecosystem dead wood carbon (C pools, whose national stock is estimated by the U.S. as required by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Historically, standing dead tree C has been estimated as a function of live tree growing stock volume in the U.S.'s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Initiated in 1998, the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program (responsible for compiling the Nation's forest C estimates began consistent nationwide sampling of standing dead trees, which may now supplant previous purely model-based approaches to standing dead biomass and C stock estimation. A substantial hurdle to estimating standing dead tree biomass and C attributes is that traditional estimation procedures are based on merchantability paradigms that may not reflect density reductions or structural loss due to decomposition common in standing dead trees. The goal of this study was to incorporate standing dead tree adjustments into the current estimation procedures and assess how biomass and C stocks change at multiple spatial scales. Results Accounting for decay and structural loss in standing dead trees significantly decreased tree- and plot-level C stock estimates (and subsequent C stocks by decay class and tree component. At a regional scale, incorporating adjustment factors decreased standing dead quaking aspen biomass estimates by almost 50 percent in the Lake States and Douglas-fir estimates by more than 36 percent in the Pacific Northwest. Conclusions Substantial overestimates of standing dead tree biomass and C stocks occur when one does not account for density reductions or structural loss. Forest inventory estimation procedures that are descended from merchantability standards may need to be revised toward a more holistic approach to determining standing dead tree biomass and C attributes (i.e., attributes of tree biomass outside of sawlog

  4. Effects of dietary cellulose levels on the estimation of endogenous amino acid losses and amino acid digestibility for growing pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengqun Liu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Two experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of dietary cellulose levels on the determination of the ileal endogenous losses (IEL of amino acids (AA, apparent ileal digestibility (AID and standardized ileal digestibility (SID of AA in corn-soybean meal diets for growing pigs. In the first experiment, 28 pigs (BW, 45.1 ± 2.0 kg that were fitted with simple T-cannulas at the distal ileum were fed 4 nitrogen-free diets consisting of 4 dietary cellulose levels (0, 3%, 6% and 9% in a randomized complete block design. In the second experiment, 28 pigs (BW, 45.6 ± 2.0 kg fitted with simple T-cannulas at the distal ileum were fed 4 corn-soybean meal diets consisting of 4 dietary cellulose levels (0, 3%, 6% and 9% in a randomized complete block design. There were 7 replicates per diet with 1 pig as a replicate in each treatment. Both experiments consisted of a 7-d adjustment period and a 2-d ileal digesta collection period on d 8 and 9. Chromic oxide was used as an indigestible marker to calculate IEL and digestibility of AA. The results showed that the IEL of AA for growing pigs was not influenced by dietary cellulose supplementation (P > 0.05. The AID of Thr, Ser, Glu, Cys, Ile, Tyr, Phe, Lys and His decreased with increasing cellulose supplementation levels for pigs fed corn-soybean meal diets (P < 0.05. The SID of Thr, Ser, Cys, Val, Ile, Tyr, Phe, Lys and His decreased with increasing cellulose supplementation levels in corn-soybean meal diets (P < 0.05. In summary, dietary cellulose levels had no effect on the estimation of IEL of AA for growing pigs. The AID and SID of most AA in corn-soybean meal diets decreased with increasing levels of dietary cellulose supplementation.

  5. Model for Estimating Noise-Induced Hearing Loss Associated With Occupational Noise Exposure in a Specified US Navy Population

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tufts, Jennifer; Weathersby, Paul K; Marshall, Lynne; Sachs, Felix

    2007-01-01

    This report details the initial steps in the development of a method for modeling the noise-induced hearing loss accrued by a population of Sailors exposed to high-level steady-state occupational noise...

  6. Quality criteria, expiration period and marketing loss estimations of pre-treated and cold stored mullet fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan, Ibrahim M.

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of protein breakdown products and lipid autoxidation in farmed mullet fish as a function of a proposed treatments prior to chilling process at 3 °C ± 1 was carried out. Furthermore, sensory evaluation of three investigated treatments, whole mullet fish (RM-eviscerated and soaked in distilled water (WSRM-eviscerated and soaked in a solution containing 5% K-sorbate + 5% Na4P2O7 + 2% Na-citrate + 0.2% ascorbic acid (SSRM, were followed during chilling storage. Estimation of the predicted length of cold storage period as well as the marketing losses of the marketable mullet fish was also elucidated. The marketing losses of mullet fish at whole or retail market levels were also estimated by using a pre-tested questionnaire. Total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N and trimethylamine nitrogen (TMA-N increased concomitantly during cold storage of differently treated mullet fish. Moreover, lipid oxidation and hydrolysis products were followed by determining peroxide value (PV, thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS and ratio of absorbance (A400/A450 as well as acid value (AV and free volatile fatty acids (FVFA. Mostly, these parameters show upward trend with different rates depending on the applied treatment. Soaking treatment greatly retarded fish spoilage during cold storage. As regards, SSRM samples withstand spoilage up to about 15 days compared to only 8 and 9 days for both RM and WSRM samples, respectively.

    El trabajo presenta los resultados de la evolución de productos de rotura de proteínas y de la autoxidación de lípidos del pescado mujol criado en cautividad en función de los tratamientos propuestos antes de su enfriamiento a 3 °C ± 1. Además se sigue la evolución organoléptica durante el almacenamiento en frío de tres tratamientos: pez entero sin vísceras (RM, sin vísceras sumergido en agua destilada (WSRM y sumergido en una solución conteniendo 5

  7. Validating the use of 137Cs and 210Pbex measurements to estimate rates of soil loss from cultivated land in southern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E

    2012-04-01

    Soil erosion represents an important threat to the long-term sustainability of agriculture and forestry in many areas of the world, including southern Italy. Numerous models and prediction procedures have been developed to estimate rates of soil loss and soil redistribution, based on the local topography, hydrometeorology, soil type and land management. However, there remains an important need for empirical measurements to provide a basis for validating and calibrating such models and prediction procedures as well as to support specific investigations and experiments. In this context, erosion plots provide useful information on gross rates of soil loss, but are unable to document the efficiency of the onward transfer of the eroded sediment within a field and towards the stream system, and thus net rates of soil loss from larger areas. The use of environmental radionuclides, particularly caesium-137 ((137)Cs) and excess lead-210 ((210)Pb(ex)), as a means of estimating rates of soil erosion and deposition has attracted increasing attention in recent years and the approach has now been recognised as possessing several important advantages. In order to provide further confirmation of the validity of the estimates of longer-term erosion and soil redistribution rates provided by (137)Cs and (210)Pb(ex) measurements, there is a need for studies aimed explicitly at validating the results obtained. In this context, the authors directed attention to the potential offered by a set of small erosion plots located near Reggio Calabria in southern Italy, for validating estimates of soil loss provided by (137)Cs and (210)Pb(ex) measurements. A preliminary assessment suggested that, notwithstanding the limitations and constraints involved, a worthwhile investigation aimed at validating the use of (137)Cs and (210)Pb(ex) measurements to estimate rates of soil loss from cultivated land could be undertaken. The results demonstrate a close consistency between the measured rates of soil

  8. Estimating the month-specific effect of complementary food on weight loss occurrence rate in less than 2 years old children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Abadi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Weight loss in children is one of the health problems that could occur several times for achild; therefore it is categorized as a recurrent event. In this study, we investigated the weight loss riskfactors firstly by using proportional rates model and then by applying time-dependent coefficient ratesmodel.Materials and Methods: In this study, the information of 1673 babies who were born in 2006 or 2007and were visited for monthly check ups at Tehran east health centers during their first two years of life wereincluded in the analysis. We first fitted the standard proportional rates model to this data with the purposeof determining weigh loss major risk factors. After adjusting these factors, the month-specific effect ofcomplementary foods on weight loss occurrence rate was explored using time-varying coefficient ratesmodel.Results: Our findings showed that the risk of weight loss gets heightened as with the increase in theintake of complementary foods. This negative effect is likely to be the most between 9 and 11 months ofage and then tends to weaken as the baby grows older. The results of Wald-type statistic showed that theimpact of complementary food on the occurrence of weight loss is significantly different with respect to thechild ‘age (P<0.001.Conclusion: Considering the variability of the effect of complementary food on the occurrence of weightloss, time-varying coefficient rates model can give more appropriate estimation of this effect thanproportional rates model.

  9. 50 CFR 216.87 - Wildlife research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Wildlife research. 216.87 Section 216.87 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION... Pribilof Islands Administration § 216.87 Wildlife research. (a) Wildlife research, other than research on...

  10. A Technique to Estimate the Equivalent Loss Resistance of Grid-Tied Converters for Current Control Analysis and Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Ana; Yepes, Alejandro G.; Fernandez, Francisco Daniel Freijedo

    2015-01-01

    Rigorous analysis and design of the current control loop in voltage source converters (VSCs) requires an accurate modeling. The loop behavior can be significantly influenced by the VSC working conditions. To consider such effect, converter losses should be included in the model, which can be done...... by means of an equivalent series resistance. This paper proposes a method to identify the VSC equivalent loss resistance for the proper tuning of the current control loop. It is based on analysis of the closed-loop transient response provided by a synchronous proportional-integral current controller......, according to the internal model principle. The method gives a set of loss resistance values linked to working conditions, which can be used to improve the tuning of the current controllers, either by online adaptation of the controller gains or by open-loop adaptive adjustment of them according to prestored...

  11. Estimation of the loss of Offsite power frequency for the probabilistic safety assessment of the Juragua NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vilaragut Llanes, J.J.; Valhuerdi Debesa, C.

    1996-01-01

    The loss offsite power is defined as the interruption of the preferred power supply to the essential and non essential switchgear buses necessitating or resulting in the use of emergency AC power supply. Because many safety system required for reactor core decay heat removal and containment heat removal depend on AC power, a loss of offsite power, if emergency power supply (diesel generators) fails, could be severe accidents The purpose of this work was to determine, for the Probabilistic Safety Assessment of the Juragua NPP, the causes, frequency and duration relationships of the loss of offsite power. A description is presented of the different factor that determine the occurrence of this event and the characteristics for the Juragua NPP

  12. Assessment of two loss methods for estimation of surface runoff in Zaafrania urban catchment, North-East of Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahdouh Yacina

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Surface runoff is a major problem in urban catchments; its generation is always related to the amount of effective rainfall dropped over the surface, however in urban catchments the process is considerably altered by the emergence of impervious areas. In this study the Soil Consevation Service – curve number (SCS-CN and the Green–Ampt loss methods were used in rainfall-runoff modelling in the Zaafrania urban catchment which is located in Annaba city in the north east of Algeria. The two loss methods were carried out within Hydrologic Engineering Center – Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS, the choice of the appropriate method for simulating runoff hydrographs in the study area was made by comparing the simulated hydrographs versus observed data using visual inspection and statistical analysis. The results indicate that SCS-CN loss method fit better in the case of 100 years return period NSE (0.462 than in 10 years NSE (0.346 and the results of calibration of Green–Ampt loss method for the 100 years return period NSE (0.417 provide best fit than the case of 10 years NSE (0.381. Furthermore, the results of both return periods (10 and 100 years of SCS-CN loss method provide best fit than the results of return periods (10 and 100 years of Green–Ampt loss method. It could be concluded that SCS-CN method is preferred to the Green–Ampt method for event based rainfall-runoff modelling.

  13. Toxicological Benchmarks for Wildlife

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E. Opresko, D.M. Suter, G.W.

    1993-01-01

    Ecological risks of environmental contaminants are evaluated by using a two-tiered process. In the first tier, a screening assessment is performed where concentrations of contaminants in the environment are compared to no observed adverse effects level (NOAEL)-based toxicological benchmarks. These benchmarks represent concentrations of chemicals (i.e., concentrations presumed to be nonhazardous to the biota) in environmental media (water, sediment, soil, food, etc.). While exceedance of these benchmarks does not indicate any particular level or type of risk, concentrations below the benchmarks should not result in significant effects. In practice, when contaminant concentrations in food or water resources are less than these toxicological benchmarks, the contaminants may be excluded from further consideration. However, if the concentration of a contaminant exceeds a benchmark, that contaminant should be retained as a contaminant of potential concern (COPC) and investigated further. The second tier in ecological risk assessment, the baseline ecological risk assessment, may use toxicological benchmarks as part of a weight-of-evidence approach (Suter 1993). Under this approach, based toxicological benchmarks are one of several lines of evidence used to support or refute the presence of ecological effects. Other sources of evidence include media toxicity tests, surveys of biota (abundance and diversity), measures of contaminant body burdens, and biomarkers. This report presents NOAEL- and lowest observed adverse effects level (LOAEL)-based toxicological benchmarks for assessment of effects of 85 chemicals on 9 representative mammalian wildlife species (short-tailed shrew, little brown bat, meadow vole, white-footed mouse, cottontail rabbit, mink, red fox, and whitetail deer) or 11 avian wildlife species (American robin, rough-winged swallow, American woodcock, wild turkey, belted kingfisher, great blue heron, barred owl, barn owl, Cooper's hawk, and red

  14. Assessment of two loss methods for estimation of surface runoff in Zaafrania urban catchment, North-East of Algeria

    OpenAIRE

    Dahdouh Yacina; Ouerdachi Lahbassi

    2018-01-01

    Surface runoff is a major problem in urban catchments; its generation is always related to the amount of effective rainfall dropped over the surface, however in urban catchments the process is considerably altered by the emergence of impervious areas. In this study the Soil Consevation Service – curve number (SCS-CN) and the Green–Ampt loss methods were used in rainfall-runoff modelling in the Zaafrania urban catchment which is located in Annaba city in the north east of Algeria. The two loss...

  15. Cost of unreliability method to estimate loss of revenue based on unreliability data: Case study of Printing Company

    Science.gov (United States)

    alhilman, Judi

    2017-12-01

    In the production line process of the printing office, the reliability of the printing machine plays a very important role, if the machine fail it can disrupt production target so that the company will suffer huge financial loss. One method to calculate the financial loss cause by machine failure is use the Cost of Unreliability(COUR) method. COUR method works based on down time machine and costs associated with unreliability data. Based on the calculation of COUR method, so the sum of cost due to unreliability printing machine during active repair time and downtime is 1003,747.00.

  16. Wildlife disease and risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanisch-Kirkbride, Shauna L; Riley, Shawn J; Gore, Meredith L

    2013-10-01

    Risk perception has an important influence on wildlife management and is particularly relevant to issues that present health risks, such as those associated with wildlife disease management. Knowledge of risk perceptions is useful to wildlife health professionals in developing communication messages that enhance public understanding of wildlife disease risks and that aim to increase public support for disease management. To promote knowledge of public understanding of disease risks in the context of wildlife disease management, we used a self-administered questionnaire mailed to a stratified random sample (n = 901) across the continental United States to accomplish three objectives: 1) assess zoonotic disease risk perceptions; 2) identify sociodemographic and social psychologic factors underlying these risk perceptions; and 3) examine the relationship between risk perception and agreement with wildlife disease management practices. Diseases we assessed in the surveys were rabies, plague, and West Nile virus. Risk perception, as measured by an index consisting of severity, susceptibility, and dread, was greatest for rabies and West Nile virus disease (x = 2.62 and 2.59, respectively, on a scale of 1 to 4 and least for plague (x = 2.39). The four most important variables associated with disease risk perception were gender, education, prior exposure to the disease, and concern for health effects. We found that stronger risk perception was associated with greater agreement with wildlife disease management. We found particular concern for the vulnerability of wildlife to zoonotic disease and for protection of wildlife health, indicating that stakeholders may be receptive to messages emphasizing the potential harm to wildlife from disease and to messages promoting One Health (i.e., those that emphasize the interdependence of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health).

  17. Hydrological Components of a Young Loblolly Pine Plantation on a Sandy Soil with Estimates of Water Use and Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah A. Abrahamson; Phillip M. Dougherty; Stanley J. Zarnoch

    1998-01-01

    Fertilizer and irrigation treatments were applied in a 7- to l0-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation on a sandy soil near Laurinburg, North Carolina. Rainfall, throughfall, stemflow, and soil water content were measured throughout the study period. Monthly interception losses ranged from 4 to 15% of rainfall. Stemflow ranged from 0.2...

  18. Nitrogen mobility, ammonia volatilization, and estimated leaching loss from long-term manure incorporation in red soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitrogen (N) loss from fertilization in agricultural fields has an unavoidable negative impact on the environment, and a better understanding of the major pathways can assist in developing best management practices. The aim of this study was to evaluate the fate of N fertilizers applied to acidic re...

  19. Land Cover Mapping using GEOBIA to Estimate Loss of Salacca zalacca Trees in Landslide Area of Clapar, Madukara District of Banjarnegara

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permata, Anggi; Juniansah, Anwar; Nurcahyati, Eka; Dimas Afrizal, Mousafi; Adnan Shafry Untoro, Muhammad; Arifatha, Na'ima; Ramadhani Yudha Adiwijaya, Raden; Farda, Nur Mohammad

    2016-11-01

    Landslide is an unpredictable natural disaster which commonly happens in highslope area. Aerial photography in small format is one of acquisition method that can reach and obtain high resolution spatial data faster than other methods, and provide data such as orthomosaic and Digital Surface Model (DSM). The study area contained landslide area in Clapar, Madukara District of Banjarnegara. Aerial photographs of landslide area provided advantage in objects visibility. Object's characters such as shape, size, and texture were clearly seen, therefore GEOBIA (Geography Object Based Image Analysis) was compatible as method for classifying land cover in study area. Dissimilar with PPA (PerPixel Analyst) method that used spectral information as base object detection, GEOBIA could use spatial elements as classification basis to establish a land cover map with better accuracy. GEOBIA method used classification hierarchy to divide post disaster land cover into three main objects: vegetation, landslide/soil, and building. Those three were required to obtain more detailed information that can be used in estimating loss caused by landslide and establishing land cover map in landslide area. Estimating loss in landslide area related to damage in Salak (Salacca zalacca) plantations. This estimation towards quantity of Salak tree that were drifted away by landslide was calculated in assumption that every tree damaged by landslide had same age and production class with other tree that weren't damaged. Loss calculation was done by approximating quantity of damaged trees in landslide area with data of trees around area that were acquired from GEOBIA classification method.

  20. Wildlife in Chernobyl forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mary Mycio

    2007-01-01

    The article is a review of a book addressed Wormwood Forest: a natural history of Chernobyl which describes life in Europe's largest wildlife sanctuary in the region surrounding the Chernobyl station. Since the accident, the area has largely been a safe haven from hunters and farmers, allowing the wildlife to live in an undisturbed environment. Against this backdrop, the book describes in detail, a highly controversial programme that released an endangered species of horse into the zone. Lack of funding for such programmes makes it nearly impossible to administer them. The book blends reportage, popular science and encounters with the zone's few residents. The result is an account of a remarkable land, its people and animals seen through the eyes of the locals, the author and the zoologists, botanists and radiologists who travelled with her around the zone. The radiation is the book's ever-present protagonist, as the author describes in detail how it works itself through the entire food chain and environment. Along the author's journey through the affected regions of Belarus and Ukraine she debunks several myths surrounding Chernobyl and the nuclear industry in general. In fact, while there have been a small number of cases of mutations observed in some species, these are not as dramatic as the Chernobyl mythology.

  1. Origin of Human Losses due to the Emilia Romagna, Italy, M5.9 Earthquake of 20 May 2012 and their Estimate in Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, M.

    2012-12-01

    Estimating human losses within less than an hour worldwide requires assumptions and simplifications. Earthquake for which losses are accurately recorded after the event provide clues concerning the influence of error sources. If final observations and real time estimates differ significantly, data and methods to calculate losses may be modified or calibrated. In the case of the earthquake in the Emilia Romagna region with M5.9 on May 20th, the real time epicenter estimates of the GFZ and the USGS differed from the ultimate location by the INGV by 6 and 9 km, respectively. Fatalities estimated within an hour of the earthquake by the loss estimating tool QLARM, based on these two epicenters, numbered 20 and 31, whereas 7 were reported in the end, and 12 would have been calculated if the ultimate epicenter released by INGV had been used. These four numbers being small, do not differ statistically. Thus, the epicenter errors in this case did not appreciably influence the results. The QUEST team of INGV has reported intensities with I ≥ 5 at 40 locations with accuracies of 0.5 units and QLARM estimated I > 4.5 at 224 locations. The differences between the observed and calculated values at the 23 common locations show that the calculation in the 17 instances with significant differences were too high on average by one unit. By assuming higher than average attenuation within standard bounds for worldwide loss estimates, the calculated intensities model the observed ones better: For 57% of the locations, the difference was not significant; for the others, the calculated intensities were still somewhat higher than the observed ones. Using a generic attenuation law with higher than average attenuation, but not tailored to the region, the number of estimated fatalities becomes 12 compared to 7 reported ones. Thus, attenuation in this case decreased the discrepancy between observed and reported death by approximately a factor of two. The source of the fatalities is

  2. Wildlife values of North American ricelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eadie, J.M.; Elphick, C.S.; Reinecke, K.J.; Miller, M.R.; Manley, Scott W.

    2008-01-01

    Ricelands have become an indispensable component of waterbird habitat and a leading example of integrating agricultural and natural resource management in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, Gulf Coast, and Central California. Residual rice, weed seeds, and invertebrates provide food for many avian species during fall and winter. In North America, considerable information exists on the use of ricefields by wintering waterbirds, the value of ricelands as breeding habitat for birds, and the effects of organic chemicals on birds that- feed in ricefields. Recent research has also examined the influence of field management practices, such as winter flooding and post-harvest straw manipulation, on the suitability of ricefields for wildlife. Whereas early studies focused on detrimental effects of wildlife on rice production (e.g., crop depredation), it has become apparent that waterbirds may benefit producers by enhancing straw decomposition, reducing weed and pest pressure, and providing additional income through hunting and wildlife viewing opportunities. A comprehensive evaluation of agronomic and environmental issues is needed to meet the challenges of producing food and sustaining wildlife in twenty-first-century rice lands. Changes in agricultural markets, pressures of increased urban development, conflicting needs for limited resources such as water, endangered species constraints, and concerns over water quality must be addressed in developing a sustainable, mutually beneficial partnership among the rice industry, wildlife, and environmental interests. Research is also needed to evaluate potential reductions in the wildlife carrying capacity of ricelands resulting from new harvest and field management techniques, crop conversion, or loss of rice acreage. Key uncertainties include: (1) changes in waste grain abundance and availability due to various harvest and post-harvest management practices; (2) evaluating food depletion by birds feeding in rice6elds and

  3. U.S. Geological Survey—Energy and Wildlife Research Annual Report for 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Mona

    2016-09-09

    Recent growth and development of renewable energy and unconventional oil and gas extraction are rapidly diversifying the energy supply of the United States. Yet, as our Nation works to advance energy security and conserve wildlife, some conflicts have surfaced. To address these challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting innovative research and developing workable solutions to reduce the impacts of energy production on wildlife. USGS scientists collaborate on many studies with scientists from other Federal, State, and local government agencies; Tribal nations; academic research institutions; and nongovernmental and private organizations.The mix of fuels used for electricity generation is evolving. Solar, natural gas, and wind energy made up most electricity generation additions in 2015 and 2016. The United States now leads the world in natural gas production, with new record highs for each year from 2011 through 2015. More than 48,000 wind turbines now contribute to power grids in most States, providing about 5 percent of U.S. end-use electricity demand in an average year. The number of utility-scale solar-energy projects is growing rapidly with solar energy projected to contribute to the largest electricity generation addition in 2016.A substantial number of large energy projects have been constructed on undeveloped public lands, and more are anticipated at an increasing rate, creating new stress to wildlife. Direct impacts include collisions with wind turbines and structures at solar facilities and loss of habitat which may negatively affect sensitive species. Recent estimates suggest 250,000 to 500,000 birds die each year at wind turbine facilities. Bat fatality rates at wind turbine facilities are less certain, but may average several hundred thousand per year throughout North America. Because new projects may be located in or near sensitive wildlife habitats, ecological science plays a key role in helping to guide project siting and operational

  4. Estimation of steady-state and transcient power distributions for the RELAP analyses of the 1963 loss-of-flow and loss-of-pressure tests at BR2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dionne, B.; Tzanos, C.P.

    2011-01-01

    To support the safety analyses required for the conversion of the Belgian Reactor 2 (BR2) from highly-enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel, the simulation of a number of loss-of-flow tests, with or without loss of pressure, has been undertaken. These tests were performed at BR2 in 1963 and used instrumented fuel assemblies (FAs) with thermocouples (TC) imbedded in the cladding as well as probes to measure the FAs power on the basis of their coolant temperature rise. The availability of experimental data for these tests offers an opportunity to better establish the credibility of the RELAP5-3D model and methodology used in the conversion analysis. In order to support the HEU to LEU conversion safety analyses of the BR2 reactor, RELAP simulations of a number of loss-of-flow/loss-of-pressure tests have been undertaken. Preliminary analyses showed that the conservative power distributions used historically in the BR2 RELAP model resulted in a significant overestimation of the peak cladding temperature during the transient. Therefore, it was concluded that better estimates of the steady-state and decay power distributions were needed to accurately predict the cladding temperatures measured during the tests and establish the credibility of the RELAP model and methodology. The new approach ('best estimate' methodology) uses the MCNP5, ORIGEN-2 and BERYL codes to obtain steady-state and decay power distributions for the BR2 core during the tests A/400/1, C/600/3 and F/400/1. This methodology can be easily extended to simulate any BR2 core configuration. Comparisons with measured peak cladding temperatures showed a much better agreement when power distributions obtained with the new methodology are used.

  5. Patterns of Wildlife Value Orientations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harry C. Zinn; Michael J. Manfredo; Susan C. Barro

    2002-01-01

    Public value orientations toward wildlife may be growing less utilitarian and more protectionist. To better understand one aspect of this trend, we investigated patterns of wildlife value orientations within families. Using a mail survey, we sampled Pennsylvania and Colorado hunting license holders 50 or older; obtaining a 54% response rate (n = 599). Males (94% of...

  6. Has the time come for big science in wildlife health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeman, Jonathan M.

    2013-01-01

    The consequences of wildlife emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecological integrity. Examples of health threats to wildlife include Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which causes a cutaneous fungal infection of amphibians and is linked to declines of amphibians globally; and the recently discovered Pseudogymnoascus (Geomyces) destructans, the etiologic agent of white nose syndrome which has caused precipitous declines of North American bat species. Of particular concern are the novel pathogens that have emerged as they are particularly devastating and challenging to manage. A big science approach to wildlife health research is needed if we are to make significant and enduring progress in managing these diseases. The advent of new analytical models and bench assays will provide us with the mathematical and molecular tools to identify and anticipate threats to wildlife, and understand the ecology and epidemiology of these diseases. Specifically, new molecular diagnostic techniques have opened up avenues for pathogen discovery, and the application of spatially referenced databases allows for risk assessments that can assist in targeting surveillance. Long-term, systematic collection of data for wildlife health and integration with other datasets is also essential. Multidisciplinary research programs should be expanded to increase our understanding of the drivers of emerging diseases and allow for the development of better disease prevention and management tools, such as vaccines. Finally, we need to create a National Fish and Wildlife Health Network that provides the operational framework (governance, policies, procedures, etc.) by which entities with a stake in wildlife health cooperate and collaborate to achieve optimal outcomes for human, animal, and ecosystem health.

  7. Assessment of Human-Wildlife Conflicts in Poba Reserved Forest, Dhemaji District, Assam (INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajeswar Pegu

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Human-wildlife conflicts from 1971-2013 in Poba Reserved Forest is presented here. Data collection included interview, records of forest department and participant observation. There is an increasing trend of human-wildlife conflict in Poba RF. Encroachment for agricultural expansion, frequent venturing into forests to collect minor forest products and livestock grazing are major causes of conflicts. Most cases of conflict occurred in forests and crop fields suggesting encroachment and venturing into animal habitat exposed human to conflict with wildlife. Pearson's correlation at 0.01 level of significance showed positive correlation between wildlife injured/killed and livestock killed/injured (0.819411 and wildlife injured/killed and property damaged (0.658009 but negative correlation between wildlife injured/killed and crop damaged (-0.04104. Crop raiding by wildlife caused considerable damage to crops and property resulting in food insecurity and economic loss to farmers; farmers also suffered economic loss due to livestock lifting by prey animals. Long years of exposure to crop and property loss and risk to life are associated with negative attitude towards wildlife. The present report will be useful in understanding the nature of conflicts and help local forest department in initiating appropriate conservation measures in Poba RF

  8. The Zambian wildlife ranching industry: scale, associated benefits, and limitations affecting its development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey, Peter A; Barnes, Jonathan; Nyirenda, Vincent; Pumfrett, Belinda; Tambling, Craig J; Taylor, W Andrew; t'Sas Rolfes, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The number and area of wildlife ranches in Zambia increased from 30 and 1,420 km(2) in 1997 to 177 and ∼6,000 km(2) by 2012. Wild ungulate populations on wildlife ranches increased from 21,000 individuals in 1997 to ∼91,000 in 2012, while those in state protected areas declined steeply. Wildlife ranching and crocodile farming have a turnover of ∼USD15.7 million per annum, compared to USD16 million from the public game management areas which encompass an area 29 times larger. The wildlife ranching industry employs 1,200 people (excluding jobs created in support industries), with a further ∼1,000 individuals employed through crocodile farming. Wildlife ranches generate significant quantities of meat (295,000 kg/annum), of which 30,000 kg of meat accrues to local communities and 36,000 kg to staff. Projected economic returns from wildlife ranching ventures are high, with an estimated 20-year economic rate of return of 28%, indicating a strong case for government support for the sector. There is enormous scope for wildlife ranching in Zambia due to the availability of land, high diversity of wildlife and low potential for commercial livestock production. However, the Zambian wildlife ranching industry is small and following completion of field work for this study, there was evidence of a significant proportion of ranchers dropping out. The industry is performing poorly, due to inter alia: rampant commercial bushmeat poaching; failure of government to allocate outright ownership of wildlife to landowners; bureaucratic hurdles; perceived historical lack of support from the Zambia Wildlife Authority and government; a lack of a clear policy on wildlife ranching; and a ban on hunting on unfenced lands including game ranches. For the wildlife ranching industry to develop, these limitations need to be addressed decisively. These findings are likely to apply to other savanna countries with large areas of marginal land potentially suited to wildlife ranching.

  9. The Zambian Wildlife Ranching Industry: Scale, Associated Benefits, and Limitations Affecting Its Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey, Peter A.; Barnes, Jonathan; Nyirenda, Vincent; Pumfrett, Belinda; Tambling, Craig J.; Taylor, W. Andrew; Rolfes, Michael t’Sas

    2013-01-01

    The number and area of wildlife ranches in Zambia increased from 30 and 1,420 km2 in 1997 to 177 and ∼6,000 km2 by 2012. Wild ungulate populations on wildlife ranches increased from 21,000 individuals in 1997 to ∼91,000 in 2012, while those in state protected areas declined steeply. Wildlife ranching and crocodile farming have a turnover of ∼USD15.7 million per annum, compared to USD16 million from the public game management areas which encompass an area 29 times larger. The wildlife ranching industry employs 1,200 people (excluding jobs created in support industries), with a further ∼1,000 individuals employed through crocodile farming. Wildlife ranches generate significant quantities of meat (295,000 kg/annum), of which 30,000 kg of meat accrues to local communities and 36,000 kg to staff. Projected economic returns from wildlife ranching ventures are high, with an estimated 20-year economic rate of return of 28%, indicating a strong case for government support for the sector. There is enormous scope for wildlife ranching in Zambia due to the availability of land, high diversity of wildlife and low potential for commercial livestock production. However, the Zambian wildlife ranching industry is small and following completion of field work for this study, there was evidence of a significant proportion of ranchers dropping out. The industry is performing poorly, due to inter alia: rampant commercial bushmeat poaching; failure of government to allocate outright ownership of wildlife to landowners; bureaucratic hurdles; perceived historical lack of support from the Zambia Wildlife Authority and government; a lack of a clear policy on wildlife ranching; and a ban on hunting on unfenced lands including game ranches. For the wildlife ranching industry to develop, these limitations need to be addressed decisively. These findings are likely to apply to other savanna countries with large areas of marginal land potentially suited to wildlife ranching. PMID:24367493

  10. Spatiotemporal Variation and the Role of Wildlife in Seasonal Water Quality Declines in the Chobe River, Botswana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Tyler Fox

    Full Text Available Sustainable management of dryland river systems is often complicated by extreme variability of precipitation in time and space, especially across large catchment areas. Understanding regional water quality changes in southern African dryland rivers and wetland systems is especially important because of their high subsistence value and provision of ecosystem services essential to both public and animal health. We quantified seasonal variation of Escherichia coli (E. coli and Total Suspended Solids (TSS in the Chobe River using spatiotemporal and geostatistical modeling of water quality time series data collected along a transect spanning a mosaic of protected, urban, and developing urban land use. We found significant relationships in the dry season between E. coli concentrations and protected land use (p = 0.0009, floodplain habitat (p = 0.016, and fecal counts from elephant (p = 0.017 and other wildlife (p = 0.001. Dry season fecal loading by both elephant (p = 0.029 and other wildlife (p = 0.006 was also an important predictor of early wet season E. coli concentrations. Locations of high E. coli concentrations likewise showed close spatial agreement with estimates of wildlife biomass derived from aerial survey data. In contrast to the dry season, wet season bacterial water quality patterns were associated only with TSS (p<0.0001, suggesting storm water and sediment runoff significantly influence E. coli loads. Our data suggest that wildlife populations, and elephants in particular, can significantly modify river water quality patterns. Loss of habitat and limitation of wildlife access to perennial rivers and floodplains in water-restricted regions may increase the impact of species on surface water resources. Our findings have important implications to land use planning in southern Africa's dryland river ecosystems.

  11. Rapid exposure and loss estimates for the May 12, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake provided by the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Porter, K.A.; Hearne, M.G.

    2008-01-01

    One half-hour after the May 12th Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system distributed an automatically generated alert stating that 1.2 million people were exposed to severe-to-extreme shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII or greater). It was immediately clear that a large-scale disaster had occurred. These alerts were widely distributed and referenced by the major media outlets and used by governments, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses. The PAGER alerts and Web pages included predictive ShakeMaps showing estimates of ground shaking, maps of population density, and a list of estimated intensities at impacted cities. Manual, revised alerts were issued in the following hours that included the dimensions of the fault rupture. Within a half-day, PAGER’s estimates of the population exposed to strong shaking levels stabilized at 5.2 million people. A coordinated research effort is underway to extend PAGER’s capability to include estimates of the number of casualties. We are pursuing loss models that will allow PAGER the flexibility to use detailed inventory and engineering results in regions where these data are available while also calculating loss estimates in regions where little is known about the type and strength of the built infrastructure. Prototype PAGER fatality estimates are currently implemented and can be manually triggered. In the hours following the Wenchuan earthquake, these models predicted fatalities in the tens of thousands.

  12. The role of native birds and other wildlife on the emergence of zoonotic diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friend, Milton; McLean, Robert G.; Burroughs, T.; Knobler, S.; Lederberg, J.

    2001-01-01

    Wildlife can be an important source of transmission of infectious disease to humans. One potential transmission route involves hunting and fishing, both common activities in the United States and worldwide. For example, during 1996, approximately 11 million Americans, about 40 percent of the total population 16 years of age and older, took part in some recreational activity relating to wildlife and fish. Another potential route of infection focuses on urban and suburban environments. These locations are of special concern because of their increasing role as wildlife habitat, the greater interface between humans and wildlife that takes place within those environments, the paucity of knowledge about disease in those wildlife populations, and the general lack of orderly management for wildlife within those environments. In the wild, several trends are contributing to the growing importance of zoonotic diseases. First, the spectrum of infectious diseases affecting wildlife today is greater than at any time during the previous century. Second, the occurrence of infectious diseases has changed, from sporadic, self-limiting outbreaks that generally resulted in minor losses to frequently occurring events that generally result in major losses of wildlife. Third, disease emergence has occurred on a worldwide scale in a broad spectrum of wildlife species and habitats. Given the scope of the problem, current disease surveillance efforts are inadequate. Few state wildlife agencies allocate personnel and resources to address wildlife disease, despite their statutory responsibility for managing nonmigratory wildlife. Some state agencies provide minimal support for regional programs based at universities. At the federal level, the primary surveillance effort is conducted by the National Wildlife Health Center, operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. Outside of government, some veterinary schools, agriculture diagnostic laboratories, and other programs provide additional

  13. Light Pollution and Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffek, J.

    2008-12-01

    for Educational Program IYA Dark Skies Education Session Fall American Geophysical Union San Francisco, December 15-19, 2008 Light Pollution and Wildlife This is a very exciting time to be a part of the mission to keep the nighttime skies natural. The International Year of Astronomy (IYA) 2009 is developing programs for all areas of Dark Skies Awareness. For many years the issue of light pollution focused on the impact to the astronomy industry. While this is an important area, research has shown that light pollution negatively impacts wildlife, their habitat, human health, and is a significant waste of energy. Since the message and impact of the effects of light pollution are much broader now, the message conveyed to the public must also be broader. Education programs directed at youth are a new frontier to reach out to a new audience about the adverse effects of too much artificial light at night. The International Dark-Sky Association (IDA) has developed educational presentations using the National Science Teachers Association Education Standards. These programs focus on youth between the ages of 5 to 17exploring new territory in the education of light pollution. The IDA education programs are broken down into three age groups; ages 5-9, 8-13, 12 and older. The presentations come complete with PowerPoint slides, discussion notes for each slide, and workbooks including age appropriate games to keep young audiences involved. A new presentation reflects the growing area of interest regarding the effects of too much artificial light at night on wildlife. This presentation outlines the known problems for ecosystems caused by artificial light at night. Insects are attracted to artificial lights and may stay near that light all night. This attraction interferes with their ability to migrate, mate, and look for food. Such behavior leads to smaller insect populations. Fewer insects in turn affect birds and bats, because they rely on insects as a food source. The IDA

  14. Leucocytozoonosis in Canada Geese at the Seney National Wildlife Refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, C.M.; Barrow, J.H.; Tarshis, I.B.

    1975-01-01

    A history is given of the Seney National Wildlife Refuge and the losses of goslings of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) recorded since inception of the refuge in 1935. Since 1960, when more reliable data became available, losses have been extensive every 4 years. Gosling deaths are attributed to the infection with Leucocytozoon simondi. The blackfly (Simulium innocens) is considered to be the prime vector in the transmission of this blood parasite to goslings.

  15. Grain yield losses in yellow-rusted durum wheat estimated using digital and conventional parameters under field conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Vergara-Diaz

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The biotrophic fungus Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici is the causal agent of the yellow rust in wheat. Between the years 2010–2013 a new strain of this pathogen (Warrior/Ambition, against which the present cultivated wheat varieties have no resistance, appeared and spread rapidly. It threatens cereal production in most of Europe. The search for sources of resistance to this strain is proposed as the most efficient and safe solution to ensure high grain production. This will be helped by the development of high performance and low cost techniques for field phenotyping. In this study we analyzed vegetation indices in the Red, Green, Blue (RGB images of crop canopies under field conditions. We evaluated their accuracy in predicting grain yield and assessing disease severity in comparison to other field measurements including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, leaf chlorophyll content, stomatal conductance, and canopy temperature. We also discuss yield components and agronomic parameters in relation to grain yield and disease severity. RGB-based indices proved to be accurate predictors of grain yield and grain yield losses associated with yellow rust (R2 = 0.581 and R2 = 0.536, respectively, far surpassing the predictive ability of NDVI (R2 = 0.118 and R2 = 0.128, respectively. In comparison to potential yield, we found the presence of disease to be correlated with reductions in the number of grains per spike, grains per square meter, kernel weight and harvest index. Grain yield losses in the presence of yellow rust were also greater in later heading varieties. The combination of RGB-based indices and days to heading together explained 70.9% of the variability in grain yield and 62.7% of the yield losses.

  16. Estimating soil losses by using radiotracers and the USLE in the valley of the river Boussouab (NE, Morocco)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadiki, A.; Faleh, A.; Navas, A.; Bouhlassa, S.

    2006-01-01

    The main objective of this work is to estimate the erosion rates by using two techniques, namely an empire equation (USLE) and a radiometric method (fallout 137 Cs). Information derived from this research could be of interest in implementing measures for soil conservation

  17. Damage, Loss, and Needs Assessment Guidance Notes : Volume 3. Estimation of Post-Disaster Needs for Recovery and Reconstruction

    OpenAIRE

    Jovel, Roberto J.; Mudahar, Mohinder

    2010-01-01

    This is a guideline for World Bank task team leaders (TTLs) entrusted with the design and execution of assessments to determine disaster impacts as well as post-disaster needs for recovery, reconstruction, and disaster risk reduction or management. Assessments estimate, first, the short-term government interventions required to initiate recovery and second, the financial requirements to ac...

  18. Malheur River Wildlife Mitigation Project, Annual Report 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashley, Paul

    2004-01-01

    Hydropower development within the Columbia and Snake River Basins has significantly affected riparian, riverine, and adjacent upland habitats and the fish and wildlife species dependent upon them. Hydroelectric dams played a major role in the extinction or major loss of both anadromous and resident salmonid populations and altered instream and adjacent upland habitats, water quality, and riparian/riverine function. Hydroelectric facility construction and inundation directly affected fish and wildlife species and habitats. Secondary and tertiary impacts including road construction, urban development, irrigation, and conversion of native habitats to agriculture, due in part to the availability of irrigation water, continue to affect wildlife and fish populations throughout the Columbia and Snake River Basins. Fluctuating water levels resulting from facility operations have created exposed sand, cobble, and/or rock zones. These zones are generally devoid of vegetation with little opportunity to re-establish riparian plant communities. To address the habitat and wildlife losses, the United States Congress in 1980 passed the Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act (Act) (P.L. 96-501), which authorized the states of Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington to create the Northwest Power Planning Council (Council). The Act directed the Council to prepare a program in conjunction with federal, state, and tribal wildlife resource authorities to protect, mitigate, and enhance fish and wildlife species affected by the construction, inundation and operation of hydroelectric dams in the Columbia River Basin (NPPC 2000). Under the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (Program), the region's fish and wildlife agencies, tribes, non-government organizations (NGOs), and the public propose fish and wildlife projects that address wildlife and fish losses resulting from dam construction and subsequent inundation. As directed by the Council, project

  19. Application of the extreme value theory to beam loss estimates in the SPIRAL2 linac based on large scale Monte Carlo computations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Duperrier

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The influence of random perturbations of high intensity accelerator elements on the beam losses is considered. This paper presents the error sensitivity study which has been performed for the SPIRAL2 linac in order to define the tolerances for the construction. The proposed driver aims to accelerate a 5 mA deuteron beam up to 20   A MeV and a 1 mA ion beam for q/A=1/3 up to 14.5 A MeV. It is a continuous wave regime linac, designed for a maximum efficiency in the transmission of intense beams and a tunable energy. It consists in an injector (two   ECRs   sources+LEBTs with the possibility to inject from several sources+radio frequency quadrupole followed by a superconducting section based on an array of independently phased cavities where the transverse focalization is performed with warm quadrupoles. The correction scheme and the expected losses are described. The extreme value theory is used to estimate the expected beam losses. The described method couples large scale computations to obtain probability distribution functions. The bootstrap technique is used to provide confidence intervals associated to the beam loss predictions. With such a method, it is possible to measure the risk to loose a few watts in this high power linac (up to 200 kW.

  20. Project W-026, Waste Receiving and Processing (WRAP) Facility Module 1: Maximum possible fire loss (MPFL) decontamination and cleanup estimates. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinkle, A.W.; Jacobsen, P.H.; Lucas, D.R.

    1994-01-01

    Project W-026, Waste Receiving and Processing (WRAP) Facility Module 1, a 1991 Line Item, is planned for completion and start of operations in the spring of 1997. WRAP Module 1 will have the capability to characterize and repackage newly generated, retrieved and stored transuranic (TRU), TRU mixed, and suspect TRU waste for shipment to the Waste isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). In addition, the WRAP Facility Module 1 will have the capability to characterize low-level mixed waste for treatment in WRAP Module 2A. This report documents the assumptions and cost estimates for decontamination and clean-up of a maximum possible fire loss (MPFL) as defined by DOE Order 5480.7A, FIRE PROTECTION. The Order defines MPFL as the value of property, excluding land, within a fire area, unless a fire hazards analysis demonstrates a lesser (or greater) loss potential. This assumes failure of both automatic fire suppression systems and manual fire fighting efforts. Estimates were developed for demolition, disposal, decontamination, and rebuilding. Total costs were estimated to be approximately $98M

  1. Wildlife reserves, populations, and hunting outcome with smart wildlife

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Frank; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Strange, Niels

    2014-01-01

    We consider a hunting area and a wildlife reserve and answer the question: How does clever migration decision affect the social optimal and the private optimal hunting levels and population stocks? We analyze this in a model allowing for two-way migration between hunting and reserve areas, where...... the populations’ migration decisions depend on both hunting pressure and relative population densities. In the social optimum a pure stress effect on the behavior of smart wildlife exists. This implies that the population level in the wildlife reserve tends to increase and the population level in the hunting area...... and hunting levels tend to decrease. On the other hand, the effect on stock tends to reduce the population in the wildlife reserve and increase the population in the hunting area and thereby also increase hunting. In the case of the private optimum, open-access is assumed and we find that the same qualitative...

  2. Occupational heat stress and associated productivity loss estimation using the PHS model (ISO 7933): a case study from workplaces in Chennai, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, Karin; Kuklane, Kalev; Venugopal, Vidhya

    2014-01-01

    Heat stress is a major occupational problem in India that can cause adverse health effects and reduce work productivity. This paper explores this problem and its impacts in selected workplaces, including industrial, service, and agricultural sectors in Chennai, India. Quantitative measurements of heat stress, workload estimations, and clothing testing, and qualitative information on health impacts, productivity loss, etc., were collected. Heat strain and associated impacts on labour productivity between the seasons were assessed using the International Standard ISO 7933:2004, which applies the Predicted Heat Strain (PHS) model. All workplaces surveyed had very high heat exposure in the hot season (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature =29.7), often reaching the international standard safe work values (ISO 7243:1989). Most workers had moderate to high workloads (170-220 W/m2), with some exposed to direct sun. Clothing was found to be problematic, with high insulation values in relation to the heat exposure. Females were found to be more vulnerable because of the extra insulation added from wearing a protective shirt on top of traditional clothing (0.96 clo) while working. When analysing heat strain--in terms of core temperature and dehydration--and associated productivity loss in the PHS model, the parameters showed significant impacts that affected productivity in all workplaces, apart from the laundry facility, especially during the hot season. For example, in the canteen, the core temperature limit of 38°C predicted by the model was reached in only 64 min for women. With the expected increases in temperature due to climate change, additional preventive actions have to be implemented to prevent further productivity losses and adverse health impacts. Overall, this study presented insight into using a thermo-physiological model to estimate productivity loss due to heat exposure in workplaces. This is the first time the PHS model has been used for this purpose. An exploratory

  3. An attempt to estimate the economic value of the loss of human life due to landslide and flood events in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvati, Paola; Bianchi, Cinzia; Hussin, Haydar; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2013-04-01

    Landslide and flood events in Italy cause wide and severe damage to buildings and infrastructure, and are frequently involved in the loss of human life. The cost estimates of past natural disasters generally refer to the amount of public money used for the restoration of the direct damage, and most commonly do not account for all disaster impacts. Other cost components, including indirect losses, are difficult to quantify and, among these, the cost of human lives. The value of specific human life can be identified with the value of a statistical life (VLS), defined as the value that an individual places on a marginal change in their likelihood of death This is different from the value of an actual life. Based on information of fatal car accidents in Italy, we evaluate the cost that society suffers for the loss of life due to landslide and flood events. Using a catalogue of fatal landslide and flood events, for which information about gender and age of the fatalities is known, we determine the cost that society suffers for the loss of their life. For the purpose, we calculate the economic value in terms of the total income that the working-age population involved in the fatal events would have earned over the course of their life. For the computation, we use the pro-capita income calculated as the ratio between the GDP and the population value in Italy for each year, since 1980. Problems occur for children and retired people that we decided not to include in our estimates.

  4. Mapping and estimating land change between 2001 and 2013 in a heterogeneous landscape in West Africa: Loss of forestlands and capacity building opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badjana, Hèou Maléki; Olofsson, Pontus; Woodcock, Curtis E.; Helmschrot, Joerg; Wala, Kpérkouma; Akpagana, Koffi

    2017-12-01

    In West Africa, accurate classification of land cover and land change remains a big challenge due to the patchy and heterogeneous nature of the landscape. Limited data availability, human resources and technical capacities, further exacerbate the challenge. The result is a region that is among the more understudied areas in the world, which in turn has resulted in a lack of appropriate information required for sustainable natural resources management. The objective of this paper is to explore open source software and easy-to-implement approaches to mapping and estimation of land change that are transferrable to local institutions to increase capacity in the region, and to provide updated information on the regional land surface dynamics. To achieve these objectives, stable land cover and land change between 2001 and 2013 in the Kara River Basin in Togo and Benin were mapped by direct multitemporal classification of Landsat data by parameterization and evaluation of two machine-learning algorithms. Areas of land cover and change were estimated by application of an unbiased estimator to sample data following international guidelines. A prerequisite for all tools and methods was implementation in an open source environment, and adherence to international guidelines for reporting land surface activities. Findings include a recommendation of the Random Forests algorithm as implemented in Orfeo Toolbox, and a stratified estimation protocol - all executed in the QGIS graphical use interface. It was found that despite an estimated reforestation of 10,0727 ± 3480 ha (95% confidence interval), the combined rate of forest and savannah loss amounted to 56,271 ± 9405 ha (representing a 16% loss of the forestlands present in 2001), resulting in a rather sharp net loss of forestlands in the study area. These dynamics had not been estimated prior to this study, and the results will provide useful information for decision making pertaining to natural resources management, land

  5. A travel cost analysis of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    William T. Zawacki; Allan Marsinko; J. Michael Bowker

    2000-01-01

    Increased emphasis on sustainable resource management in forestry has effectuated a demand for various nontimber values. Nonconsumptive wildlife recreation is an important nontimber service produced on forest and rangeland. Travel cost models and data from the 1991 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting and Wildlife-Associated Recreation are used to estimate the demand...

  6. 7 CFR 371.6 - Wildlife Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Wildlife Services. 371.6 Section 371.6 Agriculture..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION, FUNCTIONS, AND DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY § 371.6 Wildlife Services. (a) General statement. Wildlife Services (WS) manages problems caused by wildlife. (b) Deputy Administrator of...

  7. 36 CFR 1002.2 - Wildlife protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Wildlife protection. 1002.2... RECREATION § 1002.2 Wildlife protection. (a) The following are prohibited: (1) The taking of wildlife. (2) The feeding, touching, teasing, frightening or intentional disturbing of wildlife nesting, breeding or...

  8. 40 CFR 230.32 - Other wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Other wildlife. 230.32 Section 230.32... Characteristics of the Aquatic Ecosystem § 230.32 Other wildlife. (a) Wildlife associated with aquatic ecosystems... cover, travel corridors, and preferred food sources for resident and transient wildlife species...

  9. Are Wildlife Films Really "Nature Documentaries"?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouse, Derek

    1998-01-01

    Examines origins of wildlife films. Outlines their tension between education and entertainment. Looks at how Disney codified wildlife films as a coherent genre by imposing conventionalized narrative frameworks upon them. Discusses factors influencing wildlife television in the 1990s. Concludes that wildlife films are a valid and distinct film and…

  10. Low-order model of the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) reactor plant for use in Kalman filter-based optimal estimators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tylee, J.L.

    1980-01-01

    A low-order, nonlinear model of the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) reactor plant, for use in Kalman filter estimators, is developed, described, and evaluated. This model consists of 31 differential equations and represents all major subsystems of both the primary and secondary sides of the LOFT plant. Comparisons between model calculations and available LOFT power range testing transients demonstrate the accuracy of the low-order model. The nonlinear model is numerically linearized for future implementation in Kalman filter and optimal control algorithms. The linearized model is shown to be an adequate representation of the nonlinear plant dynamics

  11. Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A; Wilkinson, Bethany E; Wallenstein, Gene V

    2017-08-01

    RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P 20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.

  12. 78 FR 3909 - Big Oaks National Wildlife Refuge, IN; Glacial Ridge National Wildlife Refuge, MN; Northern...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-17

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Fish and Wildlife Service [FWS-R3-R-2012-N283; FXRS1265030000-134-FF03R06000] Big Oaks National Wildlife Refuge, IN; Glacial Ridge National Wildlife Refuge, MN; Northern Tallgrass Prairie National Wildlife Refuge, MN; Whittlesey Creek National Wildlife Refuge, WI AGENCY: Fish...

  13. WICCI Wildlife Working Group Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeDee, Olivia E.; Hagell, Suzanne; Martin, K.; McFarland, David; Meyer, Michael; Paulios, Andy; Ribic, Christine A.; Sample, D.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

    2013-01-01

    Wisconsin is world-renowned for its diversity of ecological landscapes and wildlife populations.  The northern forests, southern prairies, and interior and coastal wetlands of the state are home to more than 500 terrestrial animal species.  These animals supply the Wisconsin public with aesthetic, cultural, and economic benefits; our identity and economy are intertwined with these natural resources.  Climate change is altering the behavior, distribution, development, reproduction, and survival of these animal populations.  In turn, these changes will alter the aesthetic, cultural, and economic benefits we receive from them.  The focus of the Wildlife Working Group is to document past and current impacts, anticipate changes in wildlife distribution and abundance, and develop adaptation strategies to maintain the vitality and diversity of Wisconsin's wildlife populations.

  14. The Wildlife Institute of India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 9. Careers in Nature Conservation: The Wildlife Institute of India. T R Shankar Raman. Information and Announcements Volume 1 Issue 9 September 1996 pp 89-93 ...

  15. Changing patterns of wildlife diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, R.G.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this paper was not to analyze the effects of global warming on wildlife disease patterns, but to serve as a springboard for future efforts to identify those wildlife diseases, including zoonotic diseases, that could be influenced the most by warming climates and to encourage the development of models to examine the potential effects. Hales et al. (1999) examined the relationship of the incidence of a vector-borne human disease, Dengue fever, and El Nino southern oscillations for South Pacific Island nations. The development of similar models on specific wildlife diseases which have environmental factors strongly associated with transmission would provide information and options for the future management of our wildlife resources.

  16. 'WORLD OF BIRDS' WILDLIFE SANCTUARY

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development and activities of the 'World of Birds' Wildlife. Sanctuary, near Cape Town, are .... For the time being the benefit for school outings will be mainly visual ... feed, sing, display, build nests, incubate, feed chicks - and even fight.

  17. Loss distribution approach for operational risk capital modelling under Basel II: Combining different data sources for risk estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel V. Shevchenko

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks very different from market and credit risks. In response, Basel Committee for banking Supervision has developed a regulatory framework, referred to as Basel II, that introduced operational risk category and corresponding capital requirements. Over the past five years, major banks in most parts of the world have received accreditation under the Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA by adopting the loss distribution approach (LDA despite there being a number of unresolved methodological challenges in its implementation. Different approaches and methods are still under hot debate. In this paper, we review methods proposed in the literature for combining different data sources (internal data, external data and scenario analysis which is one of the regulatory requirement for AMA.

  18. Estimation of Life-Year Loss and Lifetime Costs for Different Stages of Colon Adenocarcinoma in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Po-Chuan; Lee, Jenq-Chang; Wang, Jung-Der

    2015-01-01

    Life-expectancy of colon cancer patients cannot be accurately answered due to the lack of both large datasets and long-term follow-ups, which impedes accurate estimation of lifetime cost to treat colon cancer patients. In this study, we applied a method to estimate life-expectancy of colon cancer patients in Taiwan and calculate the lifetime costs by different stages and age groups. A total of 17,526 cases with pathologically verified colon adenocarcinoma between 2002 and 2009 were extracted from Taiwan Cancer Registry database for analysis. All patients were followed-up until the end of 2011. Life-expectancy, expected-years-of-life-lost and lifetime costs were estimated, using a semi-parametric survival extrapolation method and borrowing information from life tables of vital statistics. Patients with more advanced stages of colon cancer were generally younger and less co-morbid with major chronic diseases than those with stages I and II. The LE of stage I was not significantly different from that of the age- and sex-matched general population, whereas those of stages II, III, and IV colon cancer patients after diagnosis were 16.57 ± 0.07, 13.35 ± 0.07, and 4.05 ± 0.05 years, respectively; the corresponding expected-years-of-life-lost were 1.28 ± 0.07, 5.93 ± 0.07 and 16.42 ± 0.06 years, significantly shorter than the general population after accounting for lead time bias. Besides, the lifetime cost of managing stage II colon cancer patients would be US $8,416 ± 1939, 14,334 ± 1,755, and 21,837 ± 1,698, respectively, indicating a big saving for early diagnosis and treatment after stratification for age and sex. Treating colon cancer at younger age and earlier stage saves more life-years and healthcare costs. Future studies are indicated to apply these quantitative results into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of screening program for colon cancers.

  19. Development and validation of a CFD based methodology to estimate the pressure loss of flow through perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barros Filho, Jose A.; Navarro, Moyses A.; Santos, Andre A.C. dos; Jordao, E.

    2011-01-01

    In spite of the recent great development of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), there are still some issues about how to assess its accurateness. This work presents the validation of a CFD methodology devised to estimate the pressure drop of water flow through perforated plates similar to the ones used in some reactor core components. This was accomplished by comparing the results of CFD simulations against experimental data of 5 perforated plates with different geometric characteristics. The proposed methodology correlates the experimental data within a range of ± 7.5%. The validation procedure recommended by the ASME Standard for Verification and Validation in Computational Fluid Dynamics and Heat Transfer-V and V 20 is also evaluated. The conclusion is that it is not adequate to this specific use. (author)

  20. Estimating the success rate of ovulation and early litter loss rate in the Japanese black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) by examining the ovaries and uteri.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanaka, Atsushi; Yamauchi, Kiyoshi; Tsujimoto, Tsunenori; Mizoguchi, Toshio; Oi, Toru; Sawada, Seigo; Shimozuru, Michito; Tsubota, Toshio

    2011-02-01

    In order to develop a method for estimating the success/failure rates of reproductive processes, especially those of ovulation and neonate nurturing, in the Japanese black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus), we examined offspring status, corpora lutea (CLs), placental scars (PSs) and corpora albicantia (CAs) in 159 females (0-23 years old) killed as nuisances on Honshu Island of Japan during 2001-2009. PSs were found to remain in the uterus at least until November of the year of parturition. CA detectability began to decline after September of the year of parturition. Monthly and age-specific proportions of CL-present females revealed that the post-mating season starts in August, and that the age of first ovulation is 4 years. These results indicate that the success rate of ovulation (SRO: the probability that solitary/non-lactating mature females actually succeed in ovulation) can be estimated by calculating the proportion of CL-present females among > or = 4-year-old females without PSs captured from August to November; the early litter loss rate (ELLR: the probability that parenting females lose all of their cubs [0-year-old offspring] before mating season) can be estimated by calculating the proportion of CL-present females among those with PSs and CAs captured in August or later. The estimated values of SRO and ELLR were 0.93 (62/67) and 0.27 (6/22), respectively.

  1. Wildlife disease prevalence in human-modified landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brearley, Grant; Rhodes, Jonathan; Bradley, Adrian; Baxter, Greg; Seabrook, Leonie; Lunney, Daniel; Liu, Yan; McAlpine, Clive

    2013-05-01

    Human-induced landscape change associated with habitat loss and fragmentation places wildlife populations at risk. One issue in these landscapes is a change in the prevalence of disease which may result in increased mortality and reduced fecundity. Our understanding of the influence of habitat loss and fragmentation on the prevalence of wildlife diseases is still in its infancy. What is evident is that changes in disease prevalence as a result of human-induced landscape modification are highly variable. The importance of infectious diseases for the conservation of wildlife will increase as the amount and quality of suitable habitat decreases due to human land-use pressures. We review the experimental and observational literature of the influence of human-induced landscape change on wildlife disease prevalence, and discuss disease transmission types and host responses as mechanisms that are likely to determine the extent of change in disease prevalence. It is likely that transmission dynamics will be the key process in determining a pathogen's impact on a host population, while the host response may ultimately determine the extent of disease prevalence. Finally, we conceptualize mechanisms and identify future research directions to increase our understanding of the relationship between human-modified landscapes and wildlife disease prevalence. This review highlights that there are rarely consistent relationships between wildlife diseases and human-modified landscapes. In addition, variation is evident between transmission types and landscape types, with the greatest positive influence on disease prevalence being in urban landscapes and directly transmitted disease systems. While we have a limited understanding of the potential influence of habitat loss and fragmentation on wildlife disease, there are a number of important areas to address in future research, particularly to account for the variability in increased and decreased disease prevalence. Previous studies

  2. Estimation of the degree of soil P saturation from Brazilian Mehlich-1 P data and field investigations on P losses from agricultural sites in Minas Gerais.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, P; Pöthig, R; Gücker, B; Venohr, M

    The degree of phosphorus saturation (DPS) of agricultural soils is studied worldwide for risk assessment of phosphorus (P) losses. In previous studies, DPS could be reliably estimated from water-soluble P (WSP) for European and Brazilian soils. In the present study, we correlated measured WSP and Mehlich-1 P (M1P) from soils of Minas Gerais (MG) and Pernambuco (PE) (R(2) = 0.94, n = 59) to create a DPS map from monitoring data. The resulting DPS map showed high spatial variability and low values of DPS (54 ± 22%, mean and standard deviation; n = 1,827). Measured soil DPS values amounted to 63 ± 14% and resulted in relatively low dissolved P concentrations measured in a surface runoff study in MG. However, fertilizer grains on the soil surface led to high WSP values (>30 mg/kg) indicating high risks of dissolved P losses. We suppose that small Oxisol particles with Fe and Al hydroxides sorbed most of the dissolved fertilizer P in runoff so that P was mainly exported in particulate form. In soils with lower contents of P sorption and binding partners, e.g. Entisols in PE, this effect may be less dominant. Consequently, superficial fertilizer effects have to be considered in addition to DPS in risk assessment of P losses from agricultural areas in Brazil.

  3. Bonneville Power Administration Wildlife Mitigation Program : Draft Environmental Impact Statement.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1996-08-01

    Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) is responsible for mitigating the loss of wildlife habitat caused by the development of the Federal Columbia River Power System. BPA accomplishes this mitigation by funding projects consistent with those recommended by the Northwest Power Planning Council (Council). The projects are submitted to the Council from Indian Tribes, state agencies, property owners, private conservation groups, and other Federal agencies. Future wildlife mitigation actions with potential environmental impacts are expected to include land acquisition and management, water rights acquisition and management, habitat restoration and enhancement, installation of watering devices, riparian fencing, and similar wildlife conservation actions. BPA needs to ensure that individual wildlife mitigation projects are planned and managed with appropriate consistency across projects, jurisdictions, and ecosystems, as well as across time. BPA proposes to standardize the planning and implementation of individual wildlife mitigation projects funded by BPA. Alternative 1 is the No Action alternative. Five standardizing alternatives are identified to represent the range of possible strategies, goals, and procedural requirements reasonably applicable to BPA-funded projects under a standardized approach to project planning and implementation. All action alternatives are based on a single project planning process designed to resolve site-specific issues in an ecosystem context and to adapt to changing conditions and information.

  4. Hypotensive anesthesia: Comparing the effects of different drug combinations on mean arterial pressure, estimated blood loss, and surgery time in orthognathic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, James; Portnof, Jason E; Kalayeh, Mona; Hardigan, Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Sevoflurane, an inhalational hypotensive anesthetic agent with a vasodilatory property, has been commonly used as a single agent to induce hypotension and effectively decrease blood loss in orthognathic surgery. However, it is common for patients to receive other hypotensive anesthetic agents in combination with sevoflurane. The purpose of our retrospective cohort study is to investigate whether administering an additional hypotensive agent has greater effect at reducing mean arterial pressure (MAP), estimated blood loss (EBL) and surgery time during orthognathic surgery. 57 subjects, aged 0-89 of both genders, who underwent orthognathic surgery were investigated in this study. Each patient's anesthesia records were reviewed to record the following variables of interest: EBL, duration of surgery, and MAP reduction in %. 41 subjects were placed in Group I and they received sevoflurane alone. 16 subjects were placed in Group II and they received sevoflurane plus a "supportive" agent. These "supportive" agents were esmolol, labetalol, metoprolol, nicardipine, and dexmedetomidine. The significant differences between two groups were assessed by using ANCOVA and p surgery time. Subjects in Group II experienced a greater reduction in MAP during surgery than subjects in Group I, 27.30% and 20.44%, respectively (p = 0.027). There was no significant difference for sex (p = 0.417) or age group (p = 0.113) in estimated blood loss, however. The mean surgery time in Group I was 1.93, 2.77, and 4.54 h with respect to LeFort, BSSO/IVRO, and double jaw surgery. Patients in Group II had a mean surgery time of 1.73, 2.07, and 5.64 h with respect to LeFort, BSSO/IVRO, and double jaw surgery. No statistically significant difference was demonstrated in surgery time between Group I vs. Group II (p > 0.05). Subjects in Group II experienced, on average, more blood loss than subjects in Group I, 355.50 ml and 238.90 ml, respectively. The use of multi-drug combination may offer

  5. 50 CFR 31.12 - Sale of wildlife specimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Sale of wildlife specimens. 31.12 Section 31.12 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (CONTINUED) THE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE SYSTEM WILDLIFE SPECIES MANAGEMENT Terms and Conditions of Wildlife...

  6. Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph O Ogutu

    Full Text Available There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya's land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72-88% and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson's gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy's zebra and waterbuck in Kenya's rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2% but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%, camels (13.1% and donkeys (6.7% evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011-2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977-1980. Most of Kenya's wildlife (ca. 30% occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total "national" wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife

  7. Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Joseph O.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Said, Mohamed Y.; Ojwang, Gordon O.; Njino, Lucy W.; Kifugo, Shem C.; Wargute, Patrick W.

    2016-01-01

    There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya’s land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72–88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson’s gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy’s zebra and waterbuck in Kenya’s rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011–2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977–1980. Most of Kenya’s wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total “national” wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate

  8. Benefits of the fire mitigation ecosystem service in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthum, Bryan M.; Pindilli, Emily J.; Hogan, Dianna

    2017-01-01

     The Great Dismal Swamp (GDS) National Wildlife Refuge delivers multiple ecosystem services, including air quality and human health via fire mitigation. Our analysis estimates benefits of this service through its potential to reduce catastrophic wildfire related impacts on the health of nearby human populations. We used a combination of high-frequency satellite data, ground sensors, and air quality indices to determine periods of public exposure to dense emissions from a wildfire within the GDS. We examined emergency department (ED) visitation in seven Virginia counties during these periods, applied measures of cumulative Relative Risk to derive the effects of wildfire smoke exposure on ED visitation rates, and estimated economic losses using regional Cost of Illness values established within the US Environmental Protection Agency BenMAP framework. Our results estimated the value of one avoided catastrophic wildfire in the refuge to be \\$3.69 million (2015 USD), or \\$306 per hectare of burn. Reducing the frequency or severity of extensive, deep burning peatland wildfire events has additional benefits not included in this estimate, including avoided costs related to fire suppression during a burn, carbon dioxide emissions, impacts to wildlife, and negative outcomes associated with recreation and regional tourism. We suggest the societal value of the public health benefits alone provides a significant incentive for refuge mangers to implement strategies that will reduce the severity of catastrophic wildfires.

  9. Spatially explicit modeling of conflict zones between wildlife and snow sports: prioritizing areas for winter refuges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braunisch, Veronika; Patthey, Patrick; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2011-04-01

    Outdoor winter recreation exerts an increasing pressure upon mountain ecosystems, with unpredictable, free-ranging activities (e.g., ski mountaineering, snowboarding, and snowshoeing) representing a major source of stress for wildlife. Mitigating anthropogenic disturbance requires the spatially explicit prediction of the interference between the activities of humans and wildlife. We applied spatial modeling to localize conflict zones between wintering Black Grouse (Tetrao tetrix), a declining species of Alpine timberline ecosystems, and two free-ranging winter sports (off-piste skiing [including snow-boarding] and snowshoeing). Track data (snow-sports and birds' traces) obtained from aerial photographs taken over a 585-km transect running along the timberline, implemented within a maximum entropy model, were used to predict the occurrence of snow sports and Black Grouse as a function of landscape characteristics. By modeling Black Grouse presence in the theoretical absence of free-ranging activities and ski infrastructure, we first estimated the amount of habitat reduction caused by these two factors. The models were then extrapolated to the altitudinal range occupied by Black Grouse, while the spatial extent and intensity of potential conflict were assessed by calculating the probability of human-wildlife co-occurrence. The two snow-sports showed different distribution patterns. Skiers' occurrence was mainly determined by ski-lift presence and a smooth terrain, while snowshoers' occurrence was linked to hiking or skiing routes and moderate slopes. Wintering Black Grouse avoided ski lifts and areas frequented by free-ranging snow sports. According to the models, Black Grouse have faced a substantial reduction of suitable wintering habitat along the timberline transect: 12% due to ski infrastructure and another 16% when adding free-ranging activities. Extrapolating the models over the whole study area results in an overall habitat loss due to ski infrastructure of

  10. Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) Report : Rainwater Wildlife Area, 1998-2001 Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Childs, Allen

    2004-01-01

    The 8,768 acre Rainwater Wildlife Area was acquired in September 1998 by the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (CTUIR) through an agreement with Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) to partially offset habitat losses associated with construction of the John Day and McNary hydroelectric facilities on the mainstem Columbia River. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) were used to determine the number of habitat units credited to BPA for acquired lands. Upland and riparian forest, upland and riparian shrub, and grassland rover types are evaluated in this study. Targeted wildlife species include downy woodpecker (Picoides pubescens), black-capped chickadee (Parus atricopillus), blue grouse (Dendragapus obscurus), great blue heron (Ardea herodias), yellow warbler (Dendroica petechia), mink (Mustela vison), and Western meadowlark (Sturnella neglects). Habitat surveys were conducted in 1998 and 1999 in accordance with published HEP protocols and included 65,300, 594m{sup 2} plots, and 112 one-tenth-acre plots. Between 153.3 and 7,187.46 acres were evaluated for each target wildlife mitigation species. Derived habitat suitability indices were multiplied by corresponding cover-type acreages to determine the number of habitat units for each species. The total baseline habitat units credited to BPA for the Rainwater Wildlife Area and its seven target species is 5,185.3 habitat units. Factors limiting habitat suitability are related to the direct, indirect, and cumulative effects of past livestock grazing, road construction, and timber harvest which have simplified the structure, composition, and diversity of native plant communities. Alternatives for protecting and improving habitat suitability include exclusion of livestock grazing, road de-commissioning/obliteration, reforestation and thinning, control of competing and unwanted vegetation (including noxious weeds), reestablishing displaced or reduced native

  11. Man-Made Wildlife Tourism Destination: The Visitors Perspective on Lok Kawi Wildlife Park, Sabah, Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Boyd Sun Fatt; Johnny Cindy; Bakansing Shirley M.

    2014-01-01

    Sabah is blessed with natural forest habitats and rich with floras and faunas. Amongst its’ attraction is wildlife endemism. Lok Kawi Wildlife Park was established to provide an alternative wildlife tourism destination with its inhabitants from the wildlife species of Borneo. Since its opening in 2007, multitudes of tourists have visited the park. However, there has been no study to identify the visitor’s perspective on Lok Kawi Wildlife Park as man-made wildlife tourism destination. The stud...

  12. Disease spread models to estimate highly uncertain emerging diseases losses for animal agriculture insurance policies: an application to the U.S. farm-raised catfish industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagmutt, Francisco J; Sempier, Stephen H; Hanson, Terril R

    2013-10-01

    Emerging diseases (ED) can have devastating effects on agriculture. Consequently, agricultural insurance for ED can develop if basic insurability criteria are met, including the capability to estimate the severity of ED outbreaks with associated uncertainty. The U.S. farm-raised channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) industry was used to evaluate the feasibility of using a disease spread simulation modeling framework to estimate the potential losses from new ED for agricultural insurance purposes. Two stochastic models were used to simulate the spread of ED between and within channel catfish ponds in Mississippi (MS) under high, medium, and low disease impact scenarios. The mean (95% prediction interval (PI)) proportion of ponds infected within disease-impacted farms was 7.6% (3.8%, 22.8%), 24.5% (3.8%, 72.0%), and 45.6% (4.0%, 92.3%), and the mean (95% PI) proportion of fish mortalities in ponds affected by the disease was 9.8% (1.4%, 26.7%), 49.2% (4.7%, 60.7%), and 88.3% (85.9%, 90.5%) for the low, medium, and high impact scenarios, respectively. The farm-level mortality losses from an ED were up to 40.3% of the total farm inventory and can be used for insurance premium rate development. Disease spread modeling provides a systematic way to organize the current knowledge on the ED perils and, ultimately, use this information to help develop actuarially sound agricultural insurance policies and premiums. However, the estimates obtained will include a large amount of uncertainty driven by the stochastic nature of disease outbreaks, by the uncertainty in the frequency of future ED occurrences, and by the often sparse data available from past outbreaks. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Wildlife Abundance and Diversity as Indicators of Tourism Potential in Northern Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winterbach, Christiaan W.; Whitesell, Carolyn; Somers, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    Wildlife tourism can provide economic incentives for conservation. Due to the abundance of wildlife and the presence of charismatic species some areas are better suited to wildlife tourism. Our first objective was to develop criteria based on wildlife abundance and diversity to evaluate tourism potential in the Northern Conservation Zone of Botswana. Secondly we wanted to quantify and compare tourism experiences in areas with high and low tourism potential. We used aerial survey data to estimate wildlife biomass and diversity to determine tourism potential, while data from ground surveys quantified the tourist experience. Areas used for High Paying Low Volume tourism had significantly higher mean wildlife biomass and wildlife diversity than the areas avoided for this type of tourism. Only 22% of the Northern Conservation Zone has intermediate to high tourism potential. The areas with high tourism potential, as determined from the aerial survey data, provided tourists with significantly better wildlife sightings (ground surveys) than the low tourism potential areas. Even Low Paying tourism may not be economically viable in concessions that lack areas with intermediate to high tourism potential. The largest part of the Northern Conservation Zone has low tourism potential, but low tourism potential is not equal to low conservation value. Alternative conservation strategies should be developed to complement the economic incentive provided by wildlife-based tourism in Botswana. PMID:26308859

  14. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.

    2008-01-01

    With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS

  15. Occupational heat stress and associated productivity loss estimation using the PHS model (ISO 7933): a case study from workplaces in Chennai, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, Karin; Kuklane, Kalev; Venugopal, Vidhya

    2014-01-01

    Background Heat stress is a major occupational problem in India that can cause adverse health effects and reduce work productivity. This paper explores this problem and its impacts in selected workplaces, including industrial, service, and agricultural sectors in Chennai, India. Design Quantitative measurements of heat stress, workload estimations, and clothing testing, and qualitative information on health impacts, productivity loss, etc., were collected. Heat strain and associated impacts on labour productivity between the seasons were assessed using the International Standard ISO 7933:2004, which applies the Predicted Heat Strain (PHS) model. Results and conclusions All workplaces surveyed had very high heat exposure in the hot season (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature x¯ =29.7), often reaching the international standard safe work values (ISO 7243:1989). Most workers had moderate to high workloads (170–220 W/m2), with some exposed to direct sun. Clothing was found to be problematic, with high insulation values in relation to the heat exposure. Females were found to be more vulnerable because of the extra insulation added from wearing a protective shirt on top of traditional clothing (0.96 clo) while working. When analysing heat strain – in terms of core temperature and dehydration – and associated productivity loss in the PHS model, the parameters showed significant impacts that affected productivity in all workplaces, apart from the laundry facility, especially during the hot season. For example, in the canteen, the core temperature limit of 38°C predicted by the model was reached in only 64 min for women. With the expected increases in temperature due to climate change, additional preventive actions have to be implemented to prevent further productivity losses and adverse health impacts. Overall, this study presented insight into using a thermo-physiological model to estimate productivity loss due to heat exposure in workplaces. This is the first time the PHS

  16. Occupational heat stress and associated productivity loss estimation using the PHS model (ISO 7933: a case study from workplaces in Chennai, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Lundgren

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Heat stress is a major occupational problem in India that can cause adverse health effects and reduce work productivity. This paper explores this problem and its impacts in selected workplaces, including industrial, service, and agricultural sectors in Chennai, India. Design: Quantitative measurements of heat stress, workload estimations, and clothing testing, and qualitative information on health impacts, productivity loss, etc., were collected. Heat strain and associated impacts on labour productivity between the seasons were assessed using the International Standard ISO 7933:2004, which applies the Predicted Heat Strain (PHS model. Results and conclusions: All workplaces surveyed had very high heat exposure in the hot season (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature x¯ =29.7, often reaching the international standard safe work values (ISO 7243:1989. Most workers had moderate to high workloads (170–220 W/m2, with some exposed to direct sun. Clothing was found to be problematic, with high insulation values in relation to the heat exposure. Females were found to be more vulnerable because of the extra insulation added from wearing a protective shirt on top of traditional clothing (0.96 clo while working. When analysing heat strain – in terms of core temperature and dehydration – and associated productivity loss in the PHS model, the parameters showed significant impacts that affected productivity in all workplaces, apart from the laundry facility, especially during the hot season. For example, in the canteen, the core temperature limit of 38°C predicted by the model was reached in only 64 min for women. With the expected increases in temperature due to climate change, additional preventive actions have to be implemented to prevent further productivity losses and adverse health impacts. Overall, this study presented insight into using a thermo-physiological model to estimate productivity loss due to heat exposure in workplaces. This is the

  17. Quadcopter applications for wildlife monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radiansyah, S.; Kusrini, M. D.; Prasetyo, L. B.

    2017-01-01

    Recently, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) had been use as an instrument for wildlife research. Most of that, using an airplane type which need space for runaway. Copter is UAV type that can fly at canopy space and do not need runaway. The research aims are to examine quadcopter application for wildlife monitoring, measure the accuracy of data generated and determine effective, efficient and appropriate technical recommendation in accordance with the ethics of wildlife photography. Flight trials with a camera 12 - 24 MP at altitude ranges from 50-200 m above ground level (agl), producing aerial photographs with spatial resolution of 0.85 - 4.79 cm/pixel. Aerial photos quality depends on the type and setting of camera, vibration damper system, flight altitude and punctuality of the shooting. For wildlife monitoring the copter is recommended to take off at least 300 m from the target, and flies at 50 - 100 m agl with flight speed of 5 - 7 m/sec on fine weather. Quadcopter presence with a distance more than 30 m from White-bellied Sea Eagles (Haliaeetus leucogaster) nest and Proboscis Monkey (Nasalis larvatus) did not cause negative response. Quadcopter application should pay attention to the behaviour and characteristic of wildlife.

  18. Wildlife reserves, populations and hunting outcome with smart wildlife

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Frank; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    reach ambiguous results when comparing a situation with and without stress effects. A pure stress effect implies that the population level in a wildlife reserve increase and the population level in the hunting area decrease in optimum. However, this change in optimal population levels increase migration...... from the wildlife reserve to the hunting area in the social optimum. The total effect is, therefore, ambiguous. For the private optimum open-access is assumed and exactly the same results arise as in the social optimum when comparing a situation with and without stress effects....

  19. A new method for the production of social fragility functions and the result of its use in worldwide fatality loss estimation for earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    A review of over 200 fatality models over the past 50 years for earthquake loss estimation from various authors has identified key parameters that influence fatality estimation in each of these models. These are often very specific and cannot be readily adapted globally. In the doctoral dissertation of the author, a new method is used for regression of fatalities to intensity using loss functions based not only on fatalities, but also using population models and other socioeconomic parameters created through time for every country worldwide for the period 1900-2013. A calibration of functions was undertaken from 1900-2008, and each individual quake analysed from 2009-2013 in real-time, in conjunction with www.earthquake-report.com. Using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database containing socioeconomic loss information for 7208 damaging earthquake events from 1900-2013 including disaggregation of secondary effects, fatality estimates for over 2035 events have been re-examined from 1900-2013. In addition, 99 of these events have detailed data for the individual cities and towns or have been reconstructed to create a death rate as a percentage of population. Many historical isoseismal maps and macroseismic intensity datapoint surveys collected globally, have been digitised and modelled covering around 1353 of these 2035 fatal events, to include an estimate of population, occupancy and socioeconomic climate at the time of the event at each intensity bracket. In addition, 1651 events without fatalities but causing damage have also been examined in this way. The production of socioeconomic and engineering indices such as HDI and building vulnerability has been undertaken on a country-level and state/province-level leading to a dataset allowing regressions not only using a static view of risk, but also allowing for the change in the socioeconomic climate between the earthquake events to be undertaken. This means that a year 1920 event in a country, will not simply be

  20. Mercury Hazard Assessment for Piscivorous Wildlife in Glacier National Park

    KAUST Repository

    Stafford, Craig P.

    2016-12-14

    We examined the mercury hazard posed to selected piscivorous wildlife in Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana. Logging Lake was our focal site where we estimated the dietary mercury concentrations of wildlife (common loon [Gavia immer], American mink [Neovison vison], river otter [Lontra canadensis], and belted kingfisher [Megaceryle alcyon]) by assuming that fishes were consumed in proportion to their relative abundances. To evaluate if Logging Lake provided a suitable baseline for our study, we made geographic comparisons of fish mercury levels and investigated the distribution and abundance of high mercury fishes within GNP. We complimented our assessment by examining selenium:mercury molar ratios in fishes from Logging Lake and Saint Mary Lake. Our results suggest fish consumption does not imperil wildlife from Logging Lake based on published thresholds for adverse mercury effects, but some hazard may exist particularly if there is strong feeding selectivity for the most contaminated species, northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis). The geographic comparisons of fish mercury levels, together with the distribution and abundance of high mercury fishes within GNP, suggest that Logging Lake provided a relatively protective baseline among our study lakes. Risk may be further reduced by the molar excess of selenium relative to mercury, particularly in the smaller fishes typically consumed by GNP wildlife. Our findings contrast with studies from northeastern US and southeastern Canada where greater mercury hazard to wildlife exists. An emergent finding from our research is that waterborne concentrations of methylmercury may provide limited insight into regional differences in fish mercury levels.

  1. Mercury Hazard Assessment for Piscivorous Wildlife in Glacier National Park

    KAUST Repository

    Stafford, Craig P.; Downs, Christopher C.; Langner, Heiko W.

    2016-01-01

    We examined the mercury hazard posed to selected piscivorous wildlife in Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana. Logging Lake was our focal site where we estimated the dietary mercury concentrations of wildlife (common loon [Gavia immer], American mink [Neovison vison], river otter [Lontra canadensis], and belted kingfisher [Megaceryle alcyon]) by assuming that fishes were consumed in proportion to their relative abundances. To evaluate if Logging Lake provided a suitable baseline for our study, we made geographic comparisons of fish mercury levels and investigated the distribution and abundance of high mercury fishes within GNP. We complimented our assessment by examining selenium:mercury molar ratios in fishes from Logging Lake and Saint Mary Lake. Our results suggest fish consumption does not imperil wildlife from Logging Lake based on published thresholds for adverse mercury effects, but some hazard may exist particularly if there is strong feeding selectivity for the most contaminated species, northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis). The geographic comparisons of fish mercury levels, together with the distribution and abundance of high mercury fishes within GNP, suggest that Logging Lake provided a relatively protective baseline among our study lakes. Risk may be further reduced by the molar excess of selenium relative to mercury, particularly in the smaller fishes typically consumed by GNP wildlife. Our findings contrast with studies from northeastern US and southeastern Canada where greater mercury hazard to wildlife exists. An emergent finding from our research is that waterborne concentrations of methylmercury may provide limited insight into regional differences in fish mercury levels.

  2. Estimativa do potencial de perda de fósforo através da metodologia "P Index" Estimating P loss potencial by P Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana F. M. de Oliveira

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available O fósforo (P é considerado o elemento limitante da eutrofização, cuja perda, via escoamento superficial, pode comprometer a qualidade da água. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar o potencial de perda de P do solo para a água, por meio da metodologia "P index" (Índice de P - IP utilizando-se dados experimentais brasileiros e comparar os dados estimados com os valores de P solúvel, P particulado e P total, determinados analiticamente. O IP foi desenvolvido nos Estados Unidos da América, em 1993, e tem sido amplamente utilizado em várias versões. Neste artigo se analisaram quatro versões da metodologia IP, utilizando-se dados de publicações científicas desenvolvidas no sul do Brasil, a partir das quais o valor do IP foi obtido e correlacionado com os dados de concentração e perda de P no escoamento superficial. Além da análise de correlação utilizou-se, também, a regressão "stepwise" para avaliar a influência de diferentes componentes do IP na concentração e perda de P. A versão do IP Original mostrou as melhores correlações considerando-se a concentração de P no escoamento superficial; já as análises de regressão indicaram que o fator erosão do solo não influenciou na concentração nem na perda de P do solo para a água.Phosphorus (P is the limiting element of eutrophication. The P losses by runoff can affect water quality. The objective of this study was to estimate the P loss from soil to water through the P Index method with Brazilian experimental data and to compare this estimated data with the analytically determined soluble P, particulate P and total P. The P Index was developed in the United States of America, in 1993, and has been widely used in several versions. In this study, four P Index versions were analysed using experiments from southern Brazil. The estimated P Indices were compared with the P concentration and loss in runoff. Besides the correlation analysis, the stepwise regression was used

  3. A review of wildlife tourism and meta-analysis of parasitism in Africa's national parks and game reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odeniran, Paul Olalekan; Ademola, Isaiah Oluwafemi; Jegede, Henry Olanrewaju

    2018-06-14

    The recent increase of parasitic diseases associated with wildlife tourism can be traced to human contact with wildlife and intense modification of wildlife habitat. The continental estimates of parasitic diseases among visited wildlife-tourists and mammalian wildlife present in conservation areas are lacking; therefore, a general review was necessary to provide insights into Africa's parasitic disease burden and transmission between humans and wildlife. A two-step analysis was conducted with searches in Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science and Global Health. All diseases reported without prevalence were grouped and analysed as categorical data while meta-analysis of prevalence rates of parasitic diseases in wildlife from national parks and reserves in Africa was conducted. Only 4.7% of the tourist centres reported routine wildlife diagnosis for parasitic diseases. Disease intensity shows that cryptosporidiosis and seven other parasitic diseases were observed in both human and wildlife; however, no significant difference in intensity between human and wildlife hosts was observed. Schistosomiasis intensity reports showed a significant increase (P tourism. Pre- and post-travel clinical examinations are important for tourists while routine examination, treatment and rational surveillance are important for these animals to improve wildlife tourism.

  4. A GIS-based estimation of soil erosion parameters for soil loss potential and erosion hazard in the city of Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tshikeba Kabantu, Martin; Muamba Tshimanga, Raphael; Onema Kileshye, Jean Marie; Gumindoga, Webster; Tshimpampa Beya, Jules

    2018-05-01

    Soil erosion has detrimental impacts on socio economic life, thus increasing poverty. This situation is aggravated by poor planning and lack of infrastructure especially in developing countries. In these countries, efforts to planning are challenged by lack of data. Alternative approaches that use remote sensing and geographical information systems are therefore needed to provide decision makers with the so much needed information for planning purposes. This helps to curb the detrimental impacts of soil erosion, mostly emanating from varied land use conditions. This study was carried out in the city of Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo with the aim of using alternative sources of data, based on earth observation resources, to determine the spatial distribution of soil loss and erosion hazard in the city of Kinshasa. A combined approach based on remote sensing skills and rational equation of soil erosion estimation was used. Soil erosion factors, including rainfall-runoff erosivity R), soil erodibility (K), slope steepness and length (SL), crop/vegetation and management (C) were calculated for the city of Kinshasa. Results show that soil loss in Kinshasa ranges from 0 to 20 t ha-1 yr-1. Most of the south part of the urban area were prone to erosion. From the total area of Kinshasa (996 500 ha), 25 013 ha (2.3 %) is of very high ( > 15 t ha-1 yr-1) risk of soil erosion. Urban areas consist of 4.3 % of the area with very high ( > 15 t ha-1 yr-1) risk of soil erosion compared to a very high risk of 2.3 % ( > 15 t ha-1 yr-1) in the rural area. The study shows that the soil loss in the study area is mostly driven by slope, elevation, and informal settlements.

  5. Estimating Loss to Follow-Up in HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: The Effect of the Competing Risk of Death in Zambia and Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwango, Albert; Stringer, Jeffrey; Ledergerber, Bruno; Mulenga, Lloyd; Bucher, Heiner C.; Westfall, Andrew O.; Calmy, Alexandra; Boulle, Andrew; Chintu, Namwinga; Egger, Matthias; Chi, Benjamin H.

    2011-01-01

    Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings. PMID:22205933

  6. Asteroseismology of old open clusters with Kepler: direct estimate of the integrated red giant branch mass-loss in NGC 6791 and 6819

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miglio, A.; Brogaard, Karsten Frank; Stello, D.

    2012-01-01

    Mass-loss of red giant branch (RGB) stars is still poorly determined, despite its crucial role in the chemical enrichment of galaxies. Thanks to the recent detection of solar-like oscillations in G–K giants in open clusters with Kepler, we can now directly determine stellar masses...... for a statistically significant sample of stars in the old open clusters NGC 6791 and 6819. The aim of this work is to constrain the integrated RGB mass-loss by comparing the average mass of stars in the red clump (RC) with that of stars in the low-luminosity portion of the RGB [i.e. stars with L≲L(RC)]. Stellar...... masses were determined by combining the available seismic parameters νmax and Δν with additional photometric constraints and with independent distance estimates. We measured the masses of 40 stars on the RGB and 19 in the RC of the old metal-rich cluster NGC 6791. We find that the difference between...

  7. Using non-performing loan ratios as default rates in the estimation of credit losses and macroeconomic credit risk stress testing: A case from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guray Kucukkocaoglu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, inspired by the Credit Portfolio View approach, we intend to develop an econometric credit risk model to estimate credit loss distributions of Turkish Banking System under baseline and stress macro scenarios, by substituting default rates with non-performing loan (NPL ratios. Since customer number based historical default rates are not available for the whole Turkish banking system’s credit portfolio, we used NPL ratios as dependent variable instead of default rates, a common practice for many countries where historical default rates are not available. Although, there are many problems in using NPL ratios as default rates such as underestimating portfolio losses as a result of totally non-homogeneous total credit portfolios and transferring non-performing loans to asset management companies from banks’ balance sheets, our aim is to underline and limit some ignored problems using accounting based NPL ratios as default rates in macroeconomic credit risk modeling. Developed models confirm the strong statistical relationship between systematic component of credit risk and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Stress test results also are compatible with the past experiences

  8. Women, Human-Wildlife Conflict, and CBNRM: Hidden Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Kwandu Conservancy, Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Elizabeth Khumalo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM programmes are designed to ensure that rural residents benefit from conservation initiatives. But where human-wildlife conflict threatens life and livelihood, wildlife impacts can undermine the goals of CBNRM. Based on research on women′s experiences in Namibia′s Kwandu Conservancy, we examine both the visible and hidden impacts of human-wildlife conflict. In Kwandu Conservancy, the effects of human-wildlife conflict are ongoing, reaching beyond direct material losses to include hidden impacts such as persistent worries about food insecurity, fears for physical safety, and lost investments. Existing vulnerabilities related to poverty and marital statuses make some women more susceptible to wildlife impacts, and less able to recover from losses or to access compensation. This process may actually deepen the vulnerability of women whose economic status is already marginal. Because the benefits of wildlife conservation accrue at multiple scales, we recommend that the cost of human-wildlife conflict be better distributed, with additional resources for prevention and compensation made available for conservancy residents.

  9. Wildlife management using the AHP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.P. Fatti

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Two applications of Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process towards solving decision problems in Wildlife Management are discussed. The first involves structuring the management objectives of a National Park and establishing priorities for the implementation of various possible strategic management plans in the Park. The second deals with the problem faced by the various non-governmental organisations concerned with the conservation of the Rhino and Elephant populations in Southern Africa, of deciding how best to allocate their funds towards this purpose. General conclusions are drawn concerning the use of analytical techniques, particularly the AHP, in planning and decision making in Wildlife Management.

  10. Design of a wildlife avoidance planning system for autonomous harvesting operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bochtis, Dionysis D.; Grøn Sørensen, Claus; Green, Ole

    2014-01-01

    Harvesting and mowing operations are among the main potential stressors affecting wildlife within agricultural landscapes, leading to large animal losses. A number of studies have been conducted on harvesting practices to address the problem of wildlife mortality, providing a number of management...... actions or field area coverage strategies. Nevertheless, these are general rules limited to simple-shaped fields, and which are not applicable to more complex operational situations. The objectives of the present study were to design a system capable of deriving a wildlife avoidance driving pattern...

  11. Status Review of Wildlife Mitigation at 14 of 27 Major Hydroelectric Projects in Idaho, 1983-1984 Final Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Robert C.; Mehrhoff, L.A.

    1985-01-01

    The Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act and wildlife and their habitats in the Columbia River Basin and to compliance with the Program, the wildlife mitigation status reports coordination with resource agencies and Indian Tribes. developed the Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program development, operation, and maintenance of hydroelectric projects on existing agreements; and past, current, and proposed wildlife factual review and documentation of existing information on wildlife meet the requirements of Measure 1004(b)(l) of the Program. The mitigation, enhancement, and protection activities were considered. In mitigate for the losses to those resources resulting from the purpose of these wildlife mitigation status reports is to provide a resources at some of the Columbia River Basin hydroelectric projects the river and its tributaries. To accomplish this goal, the Council were written with the cooperation of project operators, and in within Idaho.

  12. Book review: Foundations of wildlife diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Riper, Charles

    2016-01-01

    A new textbook for practitioners and students of wildlife disease is available. Rick Botzler and Richard Brown have provided an excellent addition to the wildlife disease literature with Foundations of Wildlife Diseases. It has been 8 years since the last major wildlife disease book (Wobeser 2006), and over 40 years since the first major wildlife disease compilation (Page 1975), an edited summary of the 3rd International Wildlife Disease meeting in Munich, Germany. Many people interested in wildlife diseases have waited eagerly for this book, and they will not be disappointed.Book information: Foundations of Wildlife Diseases. By Richard G. Botzler and Richard N. Brown. University of California Press, Oakland, California, USA. 2014. 429 pp., viii preface material. ISBN: 9780520276093. 

  13. A Strain-Based Method to Detect Tires’ Loss of Grip and Estimate Lateral Friction Coefficient from Experimental Data by Fuzzy Logic for Intelligent Tire Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Yunta

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Tires are a key sub-system of vehicles that have a big responsibility for comfort, fuel consumption and traffic safety. However, current tires are just passive rubber elements which do not contribute actively to improve the driving experience or vehicle safety. The lack of information from the tire during driving gives cause for developing an intelligent tire. Therefore, the aim of the intelligent tire is to monitor tire working conditions in real-time, providing useful information to other systems and becoming an active system. In this paper, tire tread deformation is measured to provide a strong experimental base with different experiments and test results by means of a tire fitted with sensors. Tests under different working conditions such as vertical load or slip angle have been carried out with an indoor tire test rig. The experimental data analysis shows the strong relation that exists between lateral force and the maximum tensile and compressive strain peaks when the tire is not working at the limit of grip. In the last section, an estimation system from experimental data has been developed and implemented in Simulink to show the potential of strain sensors for developing intelligent tire systems, obtaining as major results a signal to detect tire’s loss of grip and estimations of the lateral friction coefficient.

  14. A Strain-Based Method to Detect Tires' Loss of Grip and Estimate Lateral Friction Coefficient from Experimental Data by Fuzzy Logic for Intelligent Tire Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunta, Jorge; Garcia-Pozuelo, Daniel; Diaz, Vicente; Olatunbosun, Oluremi

    2018-02-06

    Tires are a key sub-system of vehicles that have a big responsibility for comfort, fuel consumption and traffic safety. However, current tires are just passive rubber elements which do not contribute actively to improve the driving experience or vehicle safety. The lack of information from the tire during driving gives cause for developing an intelligent tire. Therefore, the aim of the intelligent tire is to monitor tire working conditions in real-time, providing useful information to other systems and becoming an active system. In this paper, tire tread deformation is measured to provide a strong experimental base with different experiments and test results by means of a tire fitted with sensors. Tests under different working conditions such as vertical load or slip angle have been carried out with an indoor tire test rig. The experimental data analysis shows the strong relation that exists between lateral force and the maximum tensile and compressive strain peaks when the tire is not working at the limit of grip. In the last section, an estimation system from experimental data has been developed and implemented in Simulink to show the potential of strain sensors for developing intelligent tire systems, obtaining as major results a signal to detect tire's loss of grip and estimations of the lateral friction coefficient.

  15. 75 FR 67095 - Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge and UL Bend National Wildlife Refuge, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Fish and Wildlife Service [FWS-R6-R-2010-N215; 60138-1261-6CCP-S3] Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge and UL Bend National Wildlife Refuge, Montana AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior (DOI). ACTION: Notice; extension of comment period. SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish...

  16. 75 FR 54381 - Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge and UL Bend National Wildlife Refuge, MT

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-07

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Fish and Wildlife Service [FWS-R6-R-2010-N078; 60138-1261-6CCP-S3] Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge and UL Bend National Wildlife Refuge, MT AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of availability: Draft comprehensive conservation plan and draft...

  17. Application of best estimate and uncertainty safety analysis methodology to loss of flow events at Ontario's Power Generation's Darlington Nuclear Generating Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huget, R.G.; Lau, D.K.; Luxat, J.C.

    2001-01-01

    Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is currently developing a new safety analysis methodology based on best estimate and uncertainty (BEAU) analysis. The framework and elements of the new safety analysis methodology are defined. The evolution of safety analysis technology at OPG has been thoroughly documented. Over the years, the use of conservative limiting assumptions in OPG safety analyses has led to gradual erosion of predicted safety margins. The main purpose of the new methodology is to provide a more realistic quantification of safety margins within a probabilistic framework, using best estimate results, with an integrated accounting of the underlying uncertainties. Another objective of the new methodology is to provide a cost-effective means for on-going safety analysis support of OPG's nuclear generating stations. Discovery issues and plant aging effects require that the safety analyses be periodically revised and, in the past, the cost of reanalysis at OPG has been significant. As OPG enters the new competitive marketplace for electricity, there is a strong need to conduct safety analysis in a less cumbersome manner. This paper presents the results of the first licensing application of the new methodology in support of planned design modifications to the shutdown systems (SDSs) at Darlington Nuclear Generating Station (NGS). The design modifications restore dual trip parameter coverage over the full range of reactor power for certain postulated loss-of-flow (LOF) events. The application of BEAU analysis to the single heat transport pump trip event provides a realistic estimation of the safety margins for the primary and backup trip parameters. These margins are significantly larger than those predicted by conventional limit of the operating envelope (LOE) analysis techniques. (author)

  18. Alanine-scanning mutagenesis of human signal transducer and activator of transcription 1 to estimate loss- or gain-of-function variants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Reiko; Fujiki, Ryoji; Tsumura, Miyuki; Sakata, Sonoko; Nishimura, Shiho; Itan, Yuval; Kong, Xiao-Fei; Kato, Zenichiro; Ohnishi, Hidenori; Hirata, Osamu; Saito, Satoshi; Ikeda, Maiko; El Baghdadi, Jamila; Bousfiha, Aziz; Fujiwara, Kaori; Oleastro, Matias; Yancoski, Judith; Perez, Laura; Danielian, Silvia; Ailal, Fatima; Takada, Hidetoshi; Hara, Toshiro; Puel, Anne; Boisson-Dupuis, Stéphanie; Bustamante, Jacinta; Casanova, Jean-Laurent; Ohara, Osamu; Okada, Satoshi; Kobayashi, Masao

    2017-07-01

    Germline heterozygous mutations in human signal transducer and activator of transcription 1 (STAT1) can cause loss of function (LOF), as in patients with Mendelian susceptibility to mycobacterial diseases, or gain of function (GOF), as in patients with chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis. LOF and GOF mutations are equally rare and can affect the same domains of STAT1, especially the coiled-coil domain (CCD) and DNA-binding domain (DBD). Moreover, 6% of patients with chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis with a GOF STAT1 mutation have mycobacterial disease, obscuring the functional significance of the identified STAT1 mutations. Current computational approaches, such as combined annotation-dependent depletion, do not distinguish LOF and GOF variants. We estimated variations in the CCD/DBD of STAT1. We mutagenized 342 individual wild-type amino acids in the CCD/DBD (45.6% of full-length STAT1) to alanine and tested the mutants for STAT1 transcriptional activity. Of these 342 mutants, 201 were neutral, 30 were LOF, and 111 were GOF mutations in a luciferase assay. This assay system correctly estimated all previously reported LOF mutations (100%) and slightly fewer GOF mutations (78.1%) in the CCD/DBD of STAT1. We found that GOF alanine mutants occurred at the interface of the antiparallel STAT1 dimer, suggesting that they destabilize this dimer. This assay also precisely predicted the effect of 2 hypomorphic and dominant negative mutations, E157K and G250E, in the CCD of STAT1 that we found in 2 unrelated patients with Mendelian susceptibility to mycobacterial diseases. The systematic alanine-scanning assay is a useful tool to estimate the GOF or LOF status and the effect of heterozygous missense mutations in STAT1 identified in patients with severe infectious diseases, including mycobacterial and fungal diseases. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Optimization of automation: II. Estimation method of ostracism rate based on the loss of situation awareness of human operators in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Min; Kim, Man Cheol; Kim, Jong Hyun; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We analyze the relationship between Out-of-the-Loop and the loss of human operators’ situation awareness. • We propose an ostracism rate estimation method by only considering the negative effects of automation. • The ostracism rate reflects how much automation interrupts human operators to receive information. • The higher the ostracism rate is, the lower the accuracy of human operators’ SA will be. - Abstract: With the introduction of automation in various industries including the nuclear field, its side effect, referred to as the Out-of-the-Loop (OOTL) problem, has emerged as a critical issue that needs to be addressed. Many studies have been attempted to analyze and solve the OOTL problem, but this issue still needs a clear solution to provide criteria for introducing automation. Therefore, a quantitative estimation method for identifying negative effects of automation is proposed in this paper. The representative aspect of the OOTL problem in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is that human operators in automated operations are given less information than human operators in manual operations. In other words, human operators have less opportunity to obtain needed information as automation is introduced. From this point of view, the degree of difficulty in obtaining information from automated systems is defined as the Level of Ostracism (LOO). Using the LOO and information theory, we propose the ostracism rate, which is a new estimation method that expresses how much automation interrupts human operators’ situation awareness. We applied production rules to describe the human operators’ thinking processes, Bayesian inference to describe the production rules mathematically, and information theory to calculate the amount of information that human operators receive through observations. The validity of the suggested method was proven by conducting an experiment. The results show that the ostracism rate was significantly related to the accuracy

  20. Wildlife Habitat Improvement Guide for Minnesota Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsey, Clifton

    This publication outlines projects to increase wildlife, primarily fowl and deer, and to help rural youth better understand wildlife requirements. The publication outlines six basic steps that are involved in initiating a wildlife project. These are: (1) Determine the types of wild animals for which the land is best suited; (2) Study the life…

  1. 32 CFR 644.429 - Wildlife purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Wildlife purposes. 644.429 Section 644.429... ESTATE HANDBOOK Disposal Disposal of Fee-Owned Real Property and Easement Interests § 644.429 Wildlife... for wildlife conservation purposes by the agency of the state exercising administration over the...

  2. Blurred Boundaries in Wildlife Management Practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonman-Berson, S.H.

    2016-01-01

    Human-wildlife conflicts have been increasing at alarming rates over the last few decades. Wildlife management practices deal with preventing and disentangling these conflicts. However, which approach should be taken is widely disputed in research, policy, in-the-field-wildlife management and local

  3. 36 CFR 2.2 - Wildlife protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Wildlife protection. 2.2... PROTECTION, PUBLIC USE AND RECREATION § 2.2 Wildlife protection. (a) The following are prohibited: (1) The taking of wildlife, except by authorized hunting and trapping activities conducted in accordance with...

  4. Wildlife and electric power transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, D.H.; Goodwin, J.G.; Hunt, J.R.; Fletcher, John L.; Busnel, R.G.

    1978-01-01

    Hundreds of thousands of miles of transmission lines have been introduced into our natural environment. These lines and their corridors can be damaging or beneficial to wildlife communities depending on how they are designed, where they are placed, and when they are constructed and maintained. With the current trend toward UHV systems, new problems (associated with additional increments in audible noise, electric and magnetic force fields, etc.) must be addressed. We recommend the following areas for careful study: (1) the response of wilderness species to transmission lines and line construction and maintenance activities (2) the magnitude of bird collision and electrocution mortality, (3) the response of power corridor and power tower in habiting wildlife to laboratory and field doses of electro-chemical oxidants, corona noise, electric and magnetic fields, etc., (4) the productivity of tower inhabiting birds compared with nearby non-tower nesters, and (5) the influence of powerline corridors on mammalian and avian migration patterns. It is our hope that the questions identified in this study will help stimulate further research so that we can maximize wildlife benefits and minimize wildlife detriments.

  5. Journal of Wildlife Management guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    William M. Block; Frank R. Thompson; Dawn Hanseder; Allison Cox; Anna Knipps

    2011-01-01

    These Guidelines apply to all Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM, The Journal) submissions. Publishing a professional manuscript proceeds most smoothly if authors understand the policy, procedures, format, and style of the outlet to which they are submitting a manuscript. These instructions supersede all previous guidelines. Manuscripts that clearly deviate from this...

  6. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, A.W.

    1990-01-01

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  7. 50 CFR 36.32 - Taking of fish and wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Taking of fish and wildlife. 36.32 Section 36.32 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (CONTINUED) THE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE SYSTEM ALASKA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGES Other Refuge Uses § 36.32...

  8. 50 CFR 31.1 - Determination of surplus wildlife populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Determination of surplus wildlife populations. 31.1 Section 31.1 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (CONTINUED) THE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE SYSTEM WILDLIFE SPECIES MANAGEMENT Surplus...

  9. Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Courtot, Karen N.; Krause, Crystal M.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Courtot, Karen N.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here

  10. Accounting for wetlands loss in a changing climate in the estimation of long-term flood risks of Devils Lake, North Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulbin, S.; Kirilenko, A.; Zhang, X.

    2016-12-01

    Endorheic (terminal) lakes with no water outlets are sensitive indicators of changes in climate and land cover in the watershed. Regional variation in precipitation pattern in the US Northern Great Plaines lead to a long term flooding of Devils Lake (DL), ND, leading to a 10-m water level rise in just two decades, with estimated flood mitigation costs of over $1 billion. While the climate change contribution to flooding has been established, the role of large scale land conversion to agriculture has not been researched. Wetlands play a very important part in hydrological balance by storing, absorbing and slowing peak water discharge. In ND, 49 % of wetlands are drained and converted to agriculture. We investigated the role of wetlands loss in DL flooding in current and future climate. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow in all DL watershed subbasins. The model was calibrated using the 1991-2000 USGS gauge data for the first 10 years of study period and validated for the second 10 years (2001-2010), resulting in a satisfactory model performance compared against the measured water discharge in five streams in the watershed and against observed DL water level. A set of wetland loss scenarios were created based on the historical data and the Compound Topographic Index. To emulate the historical and future climate conditions, an ensemble of CMIP5 weather integrations based on IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios was downscaled with the MarkSim weather simulator. Model simulations indicate that the land use change in the DL watershed increased the impacts of climate change on hydrology by further elevating DL water level. Conversely, wetland restoration reduce the flooding and moderates risks of a potential high-impact DL overspill to the Sheyenne River watershed. Further research will concentrate on differentiation of climate change impacts under different types of land use change scenarios.

  11. Application of realistic (best- estimate) methodologies for large break loss of coolant (LOCA) safety analysis: licensing of Westinghouse ASTRUM evaluation model in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lage, Carlos; Frepoli, Cesare

    2010-01-01

    When the LOCA Final Acceptance Criteria for Light Water Reactors was issued in Appendix K of 10CFR50 both the USNRC and the industry recognized that the rule was highly conservative. At that time, however, the degree of conservatism in the analysis could not be quantified. As a result, the USNRC began a research program to identify the degree of conservatism in those models permitted in the Appendix K rule and to develop improved thermal-hydraulic computer codes so that realistic accident analysis calculations could be performed. The overall results of this research program quantified the conservatism in the Appendix K rule and confirmed that some relaxation of the rule can be made without a loss in safety to the public. Also, from a risk-informed perspective it is recognized that conservatism is not always a complete defense for lack of sophistication in models. In 1988, as a result of the improved understanding of LOCA phenomena, the USNRC staff amended the requirements of 10 CFR 50.46 and Appendix K, 'ECCS Evaluation Models', so that a realistic evaluation model may be used to analyze the performance of the ECCS during a hypothetical LOCA. Under the amended rules, best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) thermal-hydraulic analysis may be used in place of the overly prescriptive set of models mandated by Appendix K rule. Further guidance for the use of best-estimate codes was provided in Regulatory Guide 1.157 To demonstrate use of the revised ECCS rule, the USNRC and its consultants developed a method called the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology as an approach for defining and qualifying a best-estimate thermal-hydraulic code and quantifying the uncertainties in a LOCA analysis. More recently the CSAU principles have been generalized in the Evaluation Model Development and Assessment Process (EMDAP) of Regulatory Guide 1.203. ASTRUM is the Westinghouse Best Estimate Large Break LOCA evaluation model applicable to two-, three

  12. Molecular survey of Coxiella burnetii in wildlife and ticks at wildlife-livestock interfaces in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndeereh, David; Muchemi, Gerald; Thaiyah, Andrew; Otiende, Moses; Angelone-Alasaad, Samer; Jowers, Michael J

    2017-07-01

    Coxiella burnetii is the causative agent of Q fever, a zoonotic disease of public health importance. The role of wildlife and their ticks in the epidemiology of C. burnetii in Kenya is unknown. This study analysed the occurrence and prevalence of the pathogen in wildlife and their ticks at two unique wildlife-livestock interfaces of Laikipia and Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR) with the aim to determine the potential risk of transmission to livestock and humans. Blood from 79 and 73 animals in Laikipia and MMNR, respectively, and 756 and 95 ixodid ticks in each of the areas, respectively, was analysed. Ticks were pooled before analyses into 137 and 29 samples in Laikipia and MMNR, respectively, of one to eight non-engorged ticks according to species and animal host. Real-time PCR amplifying the repetitive insertion element IS1111a of the transposase gene was used to detect C. burnetii DNA. Although none of the animals and ticks from MMNR tested positive, ticks from Laikipia had an overall pooled prevalence of 2.92% resulting in a maximum-likelihood estimate of prevalence of 0.54%, 95% CI 0.17-1.24. Ticks positive for C. burnetii DNA belonged to the genus Rhipicephalus at a pooled prevalence of 2.96% (maximum-likelihood estimate of prevalence of 0.54%, 95% CI 0.17-1.26). These ticks were Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, R. pulchellus and R. evertsi at pooled prevalence of 3.77, 3.03 and 2.04%, respectively. The presence of C. burnetii in ticks suggests circulation of the pathogen in Laikipia and demonstrates they may play a potential role in the epidemiology of Q fever in this ecosystem. The findings warrant further studies to understand the presence of C. burnetii in domestic animals and their ticks within both study areas.

  13. Wildlife response on the Alaska North Slope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costanzo, D.; McKenzie, B.

    1992-01-01

    Recognizing the need for a comprehensive plan to deal with potentially oiled wildlife on the Alaskan North Slope, a multifaceted wildlife protection strategy was developed and implemented during 1991. The strategy incorporated all aspects of wildlife response including protection of critical habitat, hazing, capture and stabilization, long term rehabilitation, and release. The primary wildlife response strategy emphasizes controlling of the release and spreading of spilled oil at the source to prevent or reduce contamination of potentially affected species and/or their habitat. A secondary response strategy concentrates on keeping potentially affected wildlife away from an oiled area through the use of deterrent techniques. Tertiary response involves the capture and treatment of oiled wildlife. Implementation of the strategy included the development of specialized training, the procurement of equipment, and the construction of a bird stabilization center. The result of this initiative is a comprehensive wildlife response capability on the Alaskan North Slope. 1 ref., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  14. Assessment of quality of water provided for wildlife in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve, Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selebatso, Moses; Maude, Glyn; Fynn, Richard W. S.

    2018-06-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have low and unpredictable rainfall patterns resulting in limited availability of surface water for wildlife. In the Central Kalahari Game Reserve (CKGR) wildlife populations have lost access to natural surface water through cordon fences, livestock and human encroachment along the access routes. Artificial waterholes have been developed in the reserve to compensate for this loss. However, there have not been any assessments of the quality of water provided for wildlife and how that may be contributing to populations declines in the CKGR. We assessed water quality from 12 artificial waterholes against both Botswana and international livestock standards for drinking. Overall the quality of water provided is poor and poses a health risk to both animals and humans. Eight out of twelve boreholes tested exceeded the maximum acceptable Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) limits while three and four boreholes have toxic levels of lead and arsenic, respectively. Thus, pumping ground water could have more negative than positive impacts on wildlife thus defeating the intended management purpose. Failure to provide water of acceptable quality is a major concern for wildlife management in the CKGR and it may underlie some wildlife declines in the reserve. These findings confirm that restriction of populations from natural water sources create complex management challenges, especially where safe and sustainable alternative sources are scarce. Restriction of access of the population to natural water sources by fences and provision of poor quality water could compromise the overall fitness of wildlife populations and contribute to their decline.

  15. Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge Workbook Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montag, Jessica M.; Stinchfield, Holly M.

    2009-01-01

    The Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge in eastern Maine is currently developing a comprehensive conservation plan (CCP) that will guide Refuge management over the next 15 years. Workbooks were provided to local residents as part of the scoping process in order to get feedback on current and future management issues from the public. The workbooks asked questions regarding residents' use of the Refuge, conservation problems and issues in the region, the acceptability of Refuge management actions, and the importance of, satisfaction with, and acceptability of various activities allowed on the Refuge. The focus of this report is to present the results of the completed workbooks. Because of the small number of returned workbooks, it is not possible to generalize these findings to the broader public, nor is it possible to determine if respondents represent the average user. However, the results do provide an idea of possible conflicts and important issues that the Refuge may have to address in the future. The permitted uses of the Refuge are one possible conflict area. Many respondents were supportive of consumptive recreation (hunting, fishing, and trapping), but a few were adamantly opposed to these sorts of activities on the Refuge. Another issue that received several comments was motorized recreation. While some people felt strongly that ATVs and snowmobiles should be allowed, others felt just as strongly that motorized recreation of any type should not be allowed in the Refuge. Many in the sample were also very concerned about Refuge development and its effects on the human and natural environments. Issues mentioned include the loss of access to private land for consumptive recreation, concern about fish and wildlife habitat degradation, and water quality.

  16. Wildlife management using the AHP

    OpenAIRE

    L.P. Fatti

    2003-01-01

    Two applications of Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process towards solving decision problems in Wildlife Management are discussed. The first involves structuring the management objectives of a National Park and establishing priorities for the implementation of various possible strategic management plans in the Park. The second deals with the problem faced by the various non-governmental organisations concerned with the conservation of the Rhino and Elephant populations in Southern Africa, of deci...

  17. Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Ip, Hon S.

    2015-01-01

    Fifty years ago, infectious diseases were rarely considered threats to wildlife populations, and the study of wildlife diseases was largely a neglected endeavor. Furthermore, public health leaders at that time had declared that “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases and the war against pestilence won,” a quote attributed to Dr. William H. Stewart in 1967. There is some debate whether he actually said these words; however, they reflect the widespread belief at that time (Spellberg, 2008). Leap forward to today, and the book on infectious diseases has been dusted off. There is general consensus that the global environment favors the emergence of infectious diseases, and in particular, diseases of wildlife origin (Taylor et al., 2001). Examples of drivers of these infectious diseases include climate and landscape changes, human demographic and behavior changes, global travel and trade, microbial adaptation, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for wildlife disease control and prevention (Daszak et al., 2001). The consequences of these emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy and food security, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecosystem integrity. For example, 35 million people are currently living with HIV infection globally (http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en); 400 million poultry have been culled since 2003 as a result of efforts to control highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (http://www.fao.org/avianflu/en/index.html), and there are increasing biological and ecological consequences.

  18. Taming wildlife disease: bridging the gap between science and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Maxwell B.; Mihaljevic, Joseph R.; Arellano, Ana Lisette; Kueneman, Jordan G.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Pieter T.J.

    2013-01-01

    1.Parasites and pathogens of wildlife can threaten biodiversity, infect humans and domestic animals, and cause significant economic losses, providing incentives to manage wildlife diseases. Recent insights from disease ecology have helped transform our understanding of infectious disease dynamics and yielded new strategies to better manage wildlife diseases. Simultaneously, wildlife disease management (WDM) presents opportunities for large-scale empirical tests of disease ecology theory in diverse natural systems. 2.To assess whether the potential complementarity between WDM and disease ecology theory has been realized, we evaluate the extent to which specific concepts in disease ecology theory have been explicitly applied in peer-reviewed WDM literature. 3.While only half of WDM articles published in the past decade incorporated disease ecology theory, theory has been incorporated with increasing frequency over the past 40 years. Contrary to expectations, articles authored by academics were no more likely to apply disease ecology theory, but articles that explain unsuccessful management often do so in terms of theory. 4.Some theoretical concepts such as density-dependent transmission have been commonly applied, whereas emerging concepts such as pathogen evolutionary responses to management, biodiversity–disease relationships and within-host parasite interactions have not yet been fully integrated as management considerations. 5.Synthesis and applications. Theory-based disease management can meet the needs of both academics and managers by testing disease ecology theory and improving disease interventions. Theoretical concepts that have received limited attention to date in wildlife disease management could provide a basis for improving management and advancing disease ecology in the future.

  19. Ülkemizde Transfer Fiyatlandırmasının Yol Açtığı Tahmini Kurumlar Vergisi Kaybı(The Estimated Corporate Tax Loss Due To Transfer Pricing In Our Country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serdar PEHLİVAN

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available States, though in order to grasp taxable income have created legal infrastructure; with the reason of lack of efficient tax audit, they have been exposed to important tax losses due to transfer pricing.The amount of tax losses due to over invoiced imports and under invoiced exports that are determined as estimation; has shown that tax audit had not been efficient in transfer pricing. In order to minimize corporate tax losses that occured due to transfer pricing, it is required to take precautionary measures oriented in increasing efficiency in tax audit

  20. Wildlife studies on the Hanford site: 1994 Highlights report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadwell, L.L. [ed.

    1995-04-01

    The purposes of the project are to monitor and report trends in wildlife populations; conduct surveys to identify, record, and map populations of threatened, endangered, and sensitive plant and animal species; and cooperate with Washington State and federal and private agencies to help ensure the protection afforded by law to native species and their habitats. Census data and results of surveys and special study topics are shared freely among cooperating agencies. Special studies are also conducted as needed to provide additional information that may be required to assess, protect, or manage wildlife resources at Hanford. This report describes highlights of wildlife studies on the Site in 1994. Redd counts of fall chinook salmon in the Hanford Reach suggest that harvest restrictions directed at protecting Snake River salmon may have helped Columbia River stocks as well. The 1994 count (5619) was nearly double that of 1993 and about 63% of the 1989 high of approximately 9000. A habitat map showing major vegetation and land use cover types for the Hanford Site was completed in 1993. During 1994, stochastic simulation was used to estimate shrub characteristics (height, density, and canopy cover) across the previously mapped Hanford landscape. The information provided will be available for use in determining habitat quality for sensitive wildlife species. Mapping Site locations of plant species of concern continued during 1994. Additional sensitive plant species data from surveys conducted by TNC were archived. The 10 nesting pairs of ferruginous hawks that used the Hanford Site in 1993 represented approximately 25% of the Washington State population.

  1. Wildlife studies on the Hanford site: 1994 Highlights report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwell, L.L.

    1995-04-01

    The purposes of the project are to monitor and report trends in wildlife populations; conduct surveys to identify, record, and map populations of threatened, endangered, and sensitive plant and animal species; and cooperate with Washington State and federal and private agencies to help ensure the protection afforded by law to native species and their habitats. Census data and results of surveys and special study topics are shared freely among cooperating agencies. Special studies are also conducted as needed to provide additional information that may be required to assess, protect, or manage wildlife resources at Hanford. This report describes highlights of wildlife studies on the Site in 1994. Redd counts of fall chinook salmon in the Hanford Reach suggest that harvest restrictions directed at protecting Snake River salmon may have helped Columbia River stocks as well. The 1994 count (5619) was nearly double that of 1993 and about 63% of the 1989 high of approximately 9000. A habitat map showing major vegetation and land use cover types for the Hanford Site was completed in 1993. During 1994, stochastic simulation was used to estimate shrub characteristics (height, density, and canopy cover) across the previously mapped Hanford landscape. The information provided will be available for use in determining habitat quality for sensitive wildlife species. Mapping Site locations of plant species of concern continued during 1994. Additional sensitive plant species data from surveys conducted by TNC were archived. The 10 nesting pairs of ferruginous hawks that used the Hanford Site in 1993 represented approximately 25% of the Washington State population

  2. The Zambian wildlife ranching industry: scale, associated benefits, and limitations affecting its development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter A Lindsey

    Full Text Available The number and area of wildlife ranches in Zambia increased from 30 and 1,420 km(2 in 1997 to 177 and ∼6,000 km(2 by 2012. Wild ungulate populations on wildlife ranches increased from 21,000 individuals in 1997 to ∼91,000 in 2012, while those in state protected areas declined steeply. Wildlife ranching and crocodile farming have a turnover of ∼USD15.7 million per annum, compared to USD16 million from the public game management areas which encompass an area 29 times larger. The wildlife ranching industry employs 1,200 people (excluding jobs created in support industries, with a further ∼1,000 individuals employed through crocodile farming. Wildlife ranches generate significant quantities of meat (295,000 kg/annum, of which 30,000 kg of meat accrues to local communities and 36,000 kg to staff. Projected economic returns from wildlife ranching ventures are high, with an estimated 20-year economic rate of return of 28%, indicating a strong case for government support for the sector. There is enormous scope for wildlife ranching in Zambia due to the availability of land, high diversity of wildlife and low potential for commercial livestock production. However, the Zambian wildlife ranching industry is small and following completion of field work for this study, there was evidence of a significant proportion of ranchers dropping out. The industry is performing poorly, due to inter alia: rampant commercial bushmeat poaching; failure of government to allocate outright ownership of wildlife to landowners; bureaucratic hurdles; perceived historical lack of support from the Zambia Wildlife Authority and government; a lack of a clear policy on wildlife ranching; and a ban on hunting on unfenced lands including game ranches. For the wildlife ranching industry to develop, these limitations need to be addressed decisively. These findings are likely to apply to other savanna countries with large areas of marginal land potentially suited to wildlife

  3. Managing the livestock– Wildlife interface on rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    du Toit, Johan T.; Cross, Paul C.; Valeix, Marion

    2017-01-01

    On rangelands the livestock–wildlife interface is mostly characterized by management actions aimed at controlling problems associated with competition, disease, and depredation. Wildlife communities (especially the large vertebrate species) are typically incompatible with agricultural development because the opportunity costs of wildlife conservation are unaffordable except in arid and semi-arid regions. Ecological factors including the provision of supplementary food and water for livestock, together with the persecution of large predators, result in livestock replacing wildlife at biomass densities far exceeding those of indigenous ungulates. Diseases are difficult to eradicate from free-ranging wildlife populations and so veterinary controls usually focus on separating commercial livestock herds from wildlife. Persecution of large carnivores due to their depredation of livestock has caused the virtual eradication of apex predators from most rangelands. However, recent research points to a broad range of solutions to reduce conflict at the livestock–wildlife interface. Conserving wildlife bolsters the adaptive capacity of a rangeland by providing stakeholders with options for dealing with environmental change. This is contingent upon local communities being empowered to benefit directly from their wildlife resources within a management framework that integrates land-use sectors at the landscape scale. As rangelands undergo irreversible changes caused by species invasions and climate forcings, the future perspective favors a proactive shift in attitude towards the livestock–wildlife interface, from problem control to asset management.

  4. US 93 north wildlife-vehicle collision and wildlife crossing monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Human safety: Wildlife-vehicle collisions : Habitat connectivity: Wildlife use crossing structures : Cost-benefit analyses : Contract research : WTI-MSU and CSKT : Students and other partners at MSU and UofM

  5. A Combined Experimental and Finite Element Analysis Method for the Estimation of Eddy-Current Loss in NdFeB Magnets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Fratila

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available NdFeB permanent magnets (PMs are widely used in high performance electrical machines, but their relatively high conductivity subjects them to eddy current losses that can lead to magnetization loss. The Finite Element (FE method is generally used to quantify the eddy current loss of PMs, but it remains quite difficult to validate the accuracy of the results with complex devices. In this paper, an experimental test device is used in order to extract the eddy current losses that are then compared with those of a 3D FE model.

  6. A combined experimental and finite element analysis method for the estimation of eddy-current loss in NdFeB magnets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fratila, Radu; Benabou, Abdelkader; Tounzi, Abdelmounaïm; Mipo, Jean-Claude

    2014-05-14

    NdFeB permanent magnets (PMs) are widely used in high performance electrical machines, but their relatively high conductivity subjects them to eddy current losses that can lead to magnetization loss. The Finite Element (FE) method is generally used to quantify the eddy current loss of PMs, but it remains quite difficult to validate the accuracy of the results with complex devices. In this paper, an experimental test device is used in order to extract the eddy current losses that are then compared with those of a 3D FE model.

  7. Blue Creek Winter Range: Wildlife Mitigation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    This preliminary Environmental Assessment examines the potential environmental effects of securing land and conducting wildlife habitat enhancement and long term management activities within the boundaries of the Spokane Indian Reservation. Four proposed activities are analyzed: Habitat protection; Habitat enhancement; Operation and maintenance; and Monitoring and evaluation. The proposed action is intended to meet the need for mitigation of wildlife and wildlife habitat adversely affected by the construction of Grand Coulee Dam and its reservoir

  8. Hearing loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decreased hearing; Deafness; Loss of hearing; Conductive hearing loss; Sensorineural hearing loss; Presbycusis ... Symptoms of hearing loss may include: Certain sounds seeming too loud Difficulty following conversations when two or more people are talking ...

  9. Phase II Water Rental Pilot Project: Snake River Resident Fish and Wildlife Resources and Management Recommendations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stovall, Stacey H.

    1994-08-01

    The Idaho Water Rental Pilot Project was implemented in 1991 as part of the Non-Treaty Storage Fish and Wildlife Agreement between Bonneville Power Administration and the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Authority. The goal of the project is to quantify resident fish and wildlife impacts resulting from salmon flow augmentation releases made from the upper Snake River Basin. Phase I summarized existing resource information and provided management recommendations to protect and enhance resident fish and wildlife habitat resulting from storage releases for the I improvement of an adromous fish migration. Phase II includes the following: (1) a summary of recent biological, legal, and political developments within the basin as they relate to water management issues, (2) a biological appraisal of the Snake River between American Falls Reservoir and the city of Blackfoot to examine the effects of flow fluctuation on fish and wildlife habitat, and (3) a preliminary accounting of 1993--1994 flow augmentation releases out of the upper Snake, Boise, and Payette river systems. Phase III will include the development of a model in which annual flow requests and resident fish and wildlife suitability information are interfaced with habitat time series analysis to provide an estimate of resident fish and wildlife resources.

  10. Reducing Wildlife Damage with Cost-Effective Management Programmes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl R Krull

    Full Text Available Limiting the impact of wildlife damage in a cost effective manner requires an understanding of how control inputs change the occurrence of damage through their effect on animal density. Despite this, there are few studies linking wildlife management (control, with changes in animal abundance and prevailing levels of wildlife damage. We use the impact and management of wild pigs as a case study to demonstrate this linkage. Ground disturbance by wild pigs has become a conservation issue of global concern because of its potential effects on successional changes in vegetation structure and composition, habitat for other species, and functional soil properties. In this study, we used a 3-year pig control programme (ground hunting undertaken in a temperate rainforest area of northern New Zealand to evaluate effects on pig abundance, and patterns and rates of ground disturbance and ground disturbance recovery and the cost effectiveness of differing control strategies. Control reduced pig densities by over a third of the estimated carrying capacity, but more than halved average prevailing ground disturbance. Rates of new ground disturbance accelerated with increasing pig density, while rates of ground disturbance recovery were not related to prevailing pig density. Stochastic simulation models based on the measured relationships between control, pig density and rate of ground disturbance and recovery indicated that control could reduce ground disturbance substantially. However, the rate at which prevailing ground disturbance was reduced diminished rapidly as more intense, and hence expensive, pig control regimes were simulated. The model produced in this study provides a framework that links conservation of indigenous ecological communities to control inputs through the reduction of wildlife damage and suggests that managers should consider carefully the marginal cost of higher investment in wildlife damage control, relative to its marginal conservation

  11. Burlington Bottoms Wildlife Mitigation Project. Final Environmental Assessment/Management Plan and Finding of No Significant Impact.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-12-01

    Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) proposes to fund wildlife management and enhancement activities for the Burlington bottoms wetlands mitigation site. Acquired by BPA in 1991, wildlife habitat at Burlington bottoms would contribute toward the goal of mitigation for wildlife losses and inundation of wildlife habitat due to the construction of Federal dams in the lower Columbia and Willamette River Basins. Target wildlife species identified for mitigation purposes are yellow warbler, great blue heron, black-capped chickadee, red-tailed hawk, valley quail, spotted sandpiper, wood duck, and beaver. The Draft Management Plan/Environmental Assessment (EA) describes alternatives for managing the Burlington Bottoms area, and evaluates the potential environmental impacts of the alternatives. Included in the Draft Management Plan/EA is an implementation schedule, and a monitoring and evaluation program, both of which are subject to further review pending determination of final ownership of the Burlington Bottoms property.

  12. Burlington Bottoms Wildlife Mitigation Project. Final environmental assessment/management plan and finding of no significant impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) proposes to fund wildlife management and enhancement activities for the Burlington bottoms wetlands mitigation site. Acquired by BPA in 1991, wildlife habitat at Burlington bottoms would contribute toward the goal of mitigation for wildlife losses and inundation of wildlife habitat due to the construction of Federal dams in the lower Columbia and Willamette River Basins. Target wildlife species identified for mitigation purposes are yellow warbler, great blue heron, black-capped chickadee, red-tailed hawk, valley quail, spotted sandpiper, wood duck, and beaver. The Draft Management Plan/Environmental Assessment (EA) describes alternatives for managing the Burlington Bottoms area, and evaluates the potential environmental impacts of the alternatives. Included in the Draft Management Plan/EA is an implementation schedule, and a monitoring and evaluation program, both of which are subject to further review pending determination of final ownership of the Burlington Bottoms property

  13. 50 CFR 16.22 - Injurious wildlife permits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Injurious wildlife permits. 16.22 Section 16.22 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR TAKING, POSSESSION, TRANSPORTATION, SALE, PURCHASE, BARTER, EXPORTATION, AND IMPORTATION OF WILDLIFE AND...

  14. 50 CFR 17.4 - Pre-Act wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Pre-Act wildlife. 17.4 Section 17.4 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (CONTINUED) TAKING, POSSESSION, TRANSPORTATION, SALE, PURCHASE, BARTER, EXPORTATION, AND IMPORTATION OF WILDLIFE AND...

  15. 50 CFR 70.9 - Wildlife species management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Wildlife species management. 70.9 Section 70.9 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (CONTINUED) MANAGEMENT OF FISHERIES CONSERVATION AREAS NATIONAL FISH HATCHERIES § 70.9 Wildlife species...

  16. 50 CFR 14.52 - Clearance of imported wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Clearance of imported wildlife. 14.52 Section 14.52 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR TAKING, POSSESSION, TRANSPORTATION, SALE, PURCHASE, BARTER, EXPORTATION, AND IMPORTATION OF WILDLIFE AND...

  17. 50 CFR 14.51 - Inspection of wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Inspection of wildlife. 14.51 Section 14.51 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR TAKING, POSSESSION, TRANSPORTATION, SALE, PURCHASE, BARTER, EXPORTATION, AND IMPORTATION OF WILDLIFE AND PLANTS...

  18. Fish & Wildlife Annual Project Summary, 1983.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1984-07-01

    BPA's Division of Fish and Wildlife was created in 1982 to develop, coordinate and manage BPA's fish and wildlife program. Division activities protect, mitigate, and enhance fish and wildlife resources impacted by hydroelectric development and operation in the Columbia River Basin. At present the Division spends 95% of its budget on restoration projects. In 1983, 83 projects addressed all aspects of the anadromous fish life cycle, non-migratory fish problems and the status of wildlife living near reservoirs.

  19. Wildlife Linkages - San Joaquin Valley [ds417

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The California Departments of Fish and Game, Parks and Recreation, and Transportation (Caltrans) are collaborating to improve planning information for wildlife...

  20. Wildlife Corridors - San Joaquin Valley [ds423

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The California Departments of Fish and Game, Parks and Recreation, and Transportation (Caltrans) are collaborating to improve planning information for wildlife...

  1. Field Manual of Wildlife Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franson, J. Christian; Friend, Milton; Gibbs, Samantha E.J.; Wild, Margaret A.

    2015-01-01

    Welcome to a new version of the “Field Manual of Wildlife Diseases.” Unlike the previous printed versions of this publication, this new version is being developed as a “living“ electronic publication. Content will periodically be added and (or) updated as warranted, and it will always be reviewed by scientific experts (“peer reviewed”) before it is released. Thus, this publication will never be completed, and readers should download revised versions of specific chapters, glossaries, and the appendixes whenever they visit the publication Web site.

  2. Uso de geoprocessamento na estimativa da perda de solo em microbacia hidrográfica do semiárido brasileiro.= Applied geoprocessing for soil loss estimation in a Brazilian semiarid watershed.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Carlos Guerreiro Chaves

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays soil loss by erosion is one of the most serious environmental problems which has caused the degradation of various resources, especially soil and water. The aim of this study was to predict the soil loss due to erosion at a small watershed sited in Semiarid region of Ceara State, Brazil, through an arrangement of Geographic Information System tools with a quantitative model of soil loss, by the Universal Soil Loss Equation, USLE. The watershed delimitation was performed using the Digital Elevation Model. The density of drainage network was estimated using the extension ArcHydro/ArcMap 9.1. The soil loss in 74% of the studied small watershed presents a value smaller than 11 t ha-1 year-1 in more plain and vegetated areas. It was observe that more than 90% of the area presented a soil loss below 37 t ha-1 year-1, being this characteristic very influenced by the local geography, which is smooth and low sloped in more than 83% of the area of the small watershed. 66% of the area presents a low vulnerability to erosion (<10 t ha-1 year-1, being associated to this region cover vegetation and low values of slope factors. The integrated use of GIS and USLE has allowed a fast and dynamic analysis of the study area, beyond identifying most vulnerable areas to the soil loss process within the basin.

  3. Wildlife-livestock interactions in a western rangeland setting: quantifying disease-relevant contacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrich zu Dohna; Dannele E. Peck; Bruce K. Johnson; Aaron Reeves; Brant A. Schumaker

    2014-01-01

    Disease transmission between wild ungulates and domestic livestock is an important and challenging animal health issue. The potential for disease transmission between wildlife and livestock is notoriously difficult to estimate. The first step for estimating the potential for between-species disease transmission is to quantify proximity between individuals of different...

  4. The Contribution of Wildlife to Sustainable Natural Resource Utilization in Namibia: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana L. van Schalkwyk

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Namibia is the driest country in sub-Saharan Africa, but well known for its richness in species and sustainable natural resource utilization. The Namibian farming sector consists mainly of extensive farming systems. Cattle production contributes 54% of the livestock sector’s production output, followed by sheep and goats (25%, hides and skins (9%, and other forms of agricultural production (12%. Namibia’s freehold farmers have obtained ownership rights over land and livestock since the early 1900s; commercial rights over wildlife and plants were given to freehold farmers in 1967 and to communal farmers in 1996. Natural resource-based production systems then overtook agricultural production systems and exceeded it by a factor of at least two. The shift from practicing conservation to sustainable utilization of natural resources contributed to the rapid growth of wildlife utilization. The wildlife industry in Namibia is currently the only animal production system that is expanding. There are in total at least two million head of different wildlife species. The broader impact of the utilization of wildlife on the economy is estimated to be around N$ 1.3 billion. Tourism, live sales and trophy hunting, cannot sustain further growth. Wildlife farming could offer better opportunities for ensuring long-term sustainability. As the game meat trade in Namibia is not formalized, harvesting wildlife to satisfy the demand for game meat in export markets is still in its infancy. Sustainable harvesting of wildlife for meat production, however, has the potential to increase earnings to the beneficiaries in the wildlife sector.

  5. An international database of radionuclide concentration ratios for wildlife: development and uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Copplestone, D.; Beresford, N.A.; Brown, J.E.; Yankovich, T.

    2013-01-01

    A key element of most systems for assessing the impact of radionuclides on the environment is a means to estimate the transfer of radionuclides to organisms. To facilitate this, an international wildlife transfer database has been developed to provide an online, searchable compilation of transfer parameters in the form of equilibrium-based whole-organism to media concentration ratios. This paper describes the derivation of the wildlife transfer database, the key data sources it contains and highlights the applications for the data. -- Highlights: • An online database containing wildlife radionuclide transfer parameters is described. • Database underpins recent ICRP and IAEA data wildlife transfer compilations. • Database contains equilibrium based whole organism to media concentration ratios

  6. Wildlife conservation and reproductive cloning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, William V; Pickard, Amanda R; Prather, Randall S

    2004-03-01

    Reproductive cloning, or the production of offspring by nuclear transfer, is often regarded as having potential for conserving endangered species of wildlife. Currently, however, low success rates for reproductive cloning limit the practical application of this technique to experimental use and proof of principle investigations. In this review, we consider how cloning may contribute to wildlife conservation strategies. The cloning of endangered mammals presents practical problems, many of which stem from the paucity of knowledge about their basic reproductive biology. However, situations may arise where resources could be targeted at recovering lost or under-represented genetic lines; these could then contribute to the future fitness of the population. Approaches of this type would be preferable to the indiscriminate generation of large numbers of identical individuals. Applying cloning technology to non-mammalian vertebrates may be more practical than attempting to use conventional reproductive technologies. As the scientific background to cloning technology was pioneered using amphibians, it may be possible to breed imminently threatened amphibians, or even restore extinct amphibian species, by the use of cloning. In this respect species with external embryonic development may have an advantage over mammals as developmental abnormalities associated with inappropriate embryonic reprogramming would not be relevant.

  7. The Nature of the Nuisance—Damage or Threat—Determines How Perceived Monetary Costs and Cultural Benefits Influence Farmer Tolerance of Wildlife

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate Goodale

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity-friendly farming is a growing area of discussion among farmers, as well as in government departments and non-government organizations interested in conservation on private land. Those seeking to encourage biodiversity on farms must understand the production challenges presented by wildlife. Such species destroy agricultural commodities or present threats to family, pets, or infrastructure. A survey of farmers in the Canadian Maritime provinces sought to understand the drivers of tolerance. Our results demonstrated that estimated monetary losses from a species were largely unrelated to the perceived acceptability of those losses. Rather, the type of nuisance—damage to crops/property or threat to the safety of people, pets, or livestock—determined whether a loss would be perceived as acceptable and if that acceptability would influence tolerance. For damaging species, the perception of cultural benefits seemed able to convert high estimated economic losses to acceptable ones, for overall tolerance. For threatening species, however, minor perceived financial losses seemed augmented by low perceived benefits and made unacceptable, leading to intolerance. Female, older, and part-time farmers were most likely to identify threatening species as a nuisance. The use of an elicitation-based survey design provided novel insight as a result of the lack of prompts, but also presented analytical challenges that weakened predictive power. Recommendations are given for further research and management.

  8. Wildlife of southern forests habitat & management: Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    James G. Dickson

    2003-01-01

    The temperate climate, productive soils, and lush forests of the South support an abundant and diverse wildlife community. But these forests and the wildlife that inhabit them have never been stable. They have continually been molded by a variety of forces. Early, during the Pleistocene period, drastic periodic climatic shifts wrought wholesale changes to the nature...

  9. Livestock grazing, wildlife habitat, and rangeland values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul R. Krausman; David E. Naugle; Michael R. Frisina; Rick Northrup; Vernon C. Bleich; William M. Block; Mark C. Wallace; Jeffrey D. Wright

    2009-01-01

    Livestock managers make and implement grazing management decisions to achieve a variety of objectives including livestock production, sustainable grazing, and wildlife habitat enhancement. Assessed values of grazing lands and ranches are often based on aesthetics and wildlife habitat or recreational values, which can exceed agricultural values, thus providing...

  10. A technical guide for monitoring wildlife habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.M. Rowland; C.D. Vojta

    2013-01-01

    Information about status and trend of wildlife habitat is important for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service to accomplish its mission and meet its legal requirements. As the steward of 193 million acres (ac) of Federal land, the Forest Service needs to evaluate the status of wildlife habitat and how it compares with desired conditions. Habitat monitoring...

  11. Wildlife Conservation Society: Myanmar Program Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-06-01

    The Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) is one of the world's leading NGOS involved in conserving wildlife and ecosystems throughout the world through research, training and education. WCS Myamar Program is trying its best to carry out wide-ranging activities in order to achieve the goal of effective conservation of the flora and fauna of the country

  12. New England wildlife: management forested habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard M. DeGraaf; Mariko Yamasaki; William B. Leak; John W. Lanier

    1992-01-01

    Presents silvicultural treatments for six major cover-type groups in New England to produce stand conditions that provide habitat opportunities for a wide range of wildlife species. Includes matrices for species occurrence and utilization by forested and nonforested habitats, habitat breadth and size class, and structural habitat features for the 338 wildlife species...

  13. Indirect effects of recreation on wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole; Peter B. Landres

    1995-01-01

    Most of this book focuses on direct impacts to wildlife that result from contact with people. The purpose of our chapter is to provide a broad overview of the indirect influences that recreation has on wildlife. Recreational activities can change the habitat of an animal. This, in turn, affects the behavior, survival, reproduction, and distribution of individuals....

  14. Estimated losses of energy in a power system using a semi-statistical methodology; Estimacion de perdidas de energia en un sistema electrico de potencia mediante una metodologia semi-estadistica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez Martinez, D [Centro Universitario UAEM, Valle de Teotihuacan (Mexico)]. E-mail: david_2mtz@hotmail.com; Martinez Lendech, J.F [Instituto Tecnologico de Estudios Superiores del Oriente del Estado de Hidalgo (Mexico)]. E-mail: mrtzlendech@hotmail.com; Garcia Herrera, C; Olvera Ricano, J.G. [Centro Universitario UAEM, Valle de Teotihuacan (Mexico)]. E-mails: cozobi_garcia@yahoo.com.mx; jgolverar@uaemex.mx

    2013-03-15

    Determination of electrical losses is one of the most important tasks for any enterprise dedicated to generation, transmission, transformation and/or distribution of electric energy. Any enterprise dedicated to these activities does continuously energy balances in order to estimate whole electrical losses of specific processes. However, it is necessary to classify the whole electrical losses into technical and non-technical losses. This paper presents a proposal for estimating technical and non-technical losses in an electrical power system. [Spanish] La determinacion de las perdidas de energia electrica es una de las labores mas importantes en cualquier empresa dedicada a la generacion, transmision, transformacion y/o distribucion de energia electrica. Es indudable que toda empresa dedicada a cualquiera de las actividades mencionadas anteriormente realiza periodicamente balances de energia que permiten estimar el valor de las perdidas totales de energia del proceso considerado. No obstante, para poder realizar un mejor analisis de la problematica de las perdidas de energia, es necesario separar el valor total de perdidas obtenido mediante un balance de energia, en perdidas tecnicas y perdidas no tecnicas. El presente trabajo presenta una propuesta para la estimacion de perdidas tecnicas y no tecnicas en un sistema electrico de potencia.

  15. How do humans affect wildlife nematodes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Sara B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2015-01-01

    Human actions can affect wildlife and their nematode parasites. Species introductions and human-facilitated range expansions can create new host–parasite interactions. Novel hosts can introduce parasites and have the potential to both amplify and dilute nematode transmission. Furthermore, humans can alter existing nematode dynamics by changing host densities and the abiotic conditions that affect larval parasite survival. Human impacts on wildlife might impair parasites by reducing the abundance of their hosts; however, domestic animal production and complex life cycles can maintain transmission even when wildlife becomes rare. Although wildlife nematodes have many possible responses to human actions, understanding host and parasite natural history, and the mechanisms behind the changing disease dynamics might improve disease control in the few cases where nematode parasitism impacts wildlife.

  16. Human-wildlife donflict and its implication for conservation around Bwindi Impenetrable National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margaret Aharikundira; M. Tweheyo

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed the impact of wildlife on farmers who lived around the Bwindi Impenetrable National Park (BINP). The objectives were to assess the extent of damage exerted upon local farmers and to establish problem animal control strategies employed for park management and community members. Respondents identified crop loss as the major form of damage (40%),...

  17. 77 FR 65574 - Lake Andes National Wildlife Refuge Complex, Lake Andes, SD; Draft Comprehensive Conservation...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-29

    ... Freedom of Information Act by a private citizen or organization, the Service may provide copies of such... of compatible wildlife-dependent recreation. Approximately 15,000 people visit the WPAs of the... habitat degradation or loss on private lands. Karl E. Mundt NWR was established in 1974, under the...

  18. 77 FR 31870 - Final Comprehensive Conservation Plan for the Bowdoin National Wildlife Refuge Complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-30

    .... Water level manipulation is used to improve wetland habitats and invasive and non-native plant species... nonnative plants that are causing habitat losses and fragmentation would be controlled or eradicated...-led. A sanctuary area would be created for waterfowl on the east side of the Bowdoin National Wildlife...

  19. Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Hlawatsch

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The intention of a loan loss provision is the anticipation of the loan's expected losses by adjusting the book value of the loan. Furthermore, this loan loss provision has to be compared to the expected loss according to Basel II and, in the case of a difference, liable equity has to be adjusted. This however assumes that the loan loss provision and the expected loss are based on a similar economic rationale, which is only valid conditionally in current loan loss provisioning methods according to IFRS. Therefore, differences between loan loss provisions and expected losses should only result from different approaches regarding the parameter estimation within each model and not due to different assumptions regarding the outcome of the model. The provisioning and accounting model developed in this paper overcomes the before-mentioned shortcomings and is consistent with an economic rationale of expected losses. Additionally, this model is based on a close-to-market valuation of the loan that is in favor of the basic idea of IFRS. Suggestions for changes in current accounting and capital requirement rules are provided.

  20. Pregnancy Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... To receive Pregnancy email updates Enter email Submit Pregnancy loss Pregnancy loss is a harsh reality faced ... have successful pregnancies. Expand all | Collapse all Why pregnancy loss happens As many as 10 to 15 ...

  1. Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Takekawa, John Y.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.

    2012-01-01

    Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

  2. Libby/Hungry Horse Dams Wildlife Mitigation : Montana Wildlife Habitat Protection : Final Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, Marilyn

    1992-12-01

    The purpose of this project was to develop and obtain information necessary to evaluate and undertake specific wildlife habitat protection/enhancement actions in northwest Montana as outlined in the Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program. Three waterfowl projects were evaluated between September 1989 and June 1990. Weaver's Slough project involved the proposed acquisition of 200 acres of irrigated farmland and a donated conservation easement on an additional 213 acres. The proposal included enhancement of the agricultural lands by conversion to upland nesting cover. This project was rated the lowest priority based on limited potential for enhancement and no further action was pursued. The Crow Creek Ranch project involved the proposed acquisition of approximately 1830 acres of grazing and dryland farming lands. The intent would be to restore drained potholes and provide adjacent upland nesting cover to increase waterfowl production. This project received the highest rating based on the immediate threat of subdivision, the opportunity to restore degraded wetlands, and the overall benefits to numerous species besides waterfowl. Ducks Unlimited was not able to participate as a cooperator on this project due to the jurisdiction concerns between State and tribal ownership. The USFWS ultimately acquired 1,550 acres of this proposed project. No mitigation funds were used. The Ashley Creek project involved acquisition of 870 acres adjacent to the Smith Lake Waterfowl Production Area. The primary goal was to create approximately 470 acres of wetland habitat with dikes and subimpoundments. This project was rated second in priority due to the lesser threat of loss. A feasibility analysis was completed by Ducks Unlimited based on a concept design. Although adequate water was available for the project, soil testing indicated that the organic soils adjacent to the creek would not support the necessary dikes. The project was determined not feasible for mitigation

  3. An estimation of core damage frequency of a pressurized water reactor during midloop operation due to loss of residual heat removal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chao, C.C.; Chen, C.T.; Lee, M.

    1995-01-01

    The core damage frequency caused by loss of residual heat removal (RHR) events was assessed during midloop operation of a Westinghouse-designed three-loop pressurized water reactor. The assessment considers two types of outages (refueling and drained maintenance) and uses failure data collected specifically for shutdown condition. Event trees were developed for five categories of loss of RHR events. Human actions to mitigate the loss of RHR events were identified and human error probabilities were quantified using the human cognitive reliability (HCR) and the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) models. The results showed that the core damage frequency caused by loss of RHR events during midloop operation was 3.4 x 10 -5 per year. The results also showed that the core damage frequency can be reduced significantly by removing a pressurizer safety valve before entering midloop operation. The establishment of reflux cooling, i.e., decay heat removal through the steam generator secondary side, also plays an important role in mitigating the loss of RHR events during midloop operation

  4. Quantifying soil carbon loss and uncertainty from a peatland wildfire using multi-temporal LiDAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Ashwan D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Wurster, F.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Ward, S.; Newcomb, Doug; Murray, R.

    2015-01-01

    Peatlands are a major reservoir of global soil carbon, yet account for just 3% of global land cover. Human impacts like draining can hinder the ability of peatlands to sequester carbon and expose their soils to fire under dry conditions. Estimating soil carbon loss from peat fires can be challenging due to uncertainty about pre-fire surface elevations. This study uses multi-temporal LiDAR to obtain pre- and post-fire elevations and estimate soil carbon loss caused by the 2011 Lateral West fire in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, VA, USA. We also determine how LiDAR elevation error affects uncertainty in our carbon loss estimate by randomly perturbing the LiDAR point elevations and recalculating elevation change and carbon loss, iterating this process 1000 times. We calculated a total loss using LiDAR of 1.10 Tg C across the 25 km2 burned area. The fire burned an average of 47 cm deep, equivalent to 44 kg C/m2, a value larger than the 1997 Indonesian peat fires (29 kg C/m2). Carbon loss via the First-Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) was estimated to be 0.06 Tg C. Propagating the LiDAR elevation error to the carbon loss estimates, we calculated a standard deviation of 0.00009 Tg C, equivalent to 0.008% of total carbon loss. We conclude that LiDAR elevation error is not a significant contributor to uncertainty in soil carbon loss under severe fire conditions with substantial peat consumption. However, uncertainties may be more substantial when soil elevation loss is of a similar or smaller magnitude than the reported LiDAR error.

  5. Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) Report; Iskuulpa Wildlife Mitigation and Watershed Project, Technical Report 1998-2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quaempts, Eric

    2003-01-01

    U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) were used to determine the number of habitat units credited to evaluate lands acquired and leased in Eskuulpa Watershed, a Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation watershed and wildlife mitigation project. The project is designed to partially credit habitat losses incurred by BPA for the construction of the John Day and McNary hydroelectric facilities on the Columbia River. Upland and riparian forest, upland and riparian shrub, and grasslands cover types were included in the evaluation. Indicator species included downy woodpecker (Picuides puhescens), black-capped chickadee (Pams atricopillus), blue grouse (Beadragapus obscurus), great blue heron (Ardea herodias), yellow warbler (Dendroica petschia), mink (Mustela vison), and Western meadowlark (Sturnello neglects). Habitat surveys were conducted in 1998 and 1999 in accordance with published HEP protocols and included 55,500 feet of transects, 678 m2 plots, and 243 one-tenth-acre plots. Between 123.9 and f 0,794.4 acres were evaluated for each indicator species. Derived habitat suitability indices were multiplied by corresponding cover-type acreages to determine the number of habitat units for each species. The total habitat units credited to BPA for the Iskuulpa Watershed Project and its seven indicator species is 4,567.8 habitat units. Factors limiting habitat suitability are related to the direct, indirect, and cumulative effects of past livestock grazing, road construction, and timber harvest, which have simplified the structure, composition, and diversity of native plant communities. Alternatives for protecting and improving habitat suitability include exclusion of livestock grazing or implementation of restoration grazing schemes, road de-commissioning, reforestation, large woody debris additions to floodplains, control of competing and unwanted vegetation, reestablishing displaced or reduced native vegetation species

  6. Man-Made Wildlife Tourism Destination: The Visitors Perspective on Lok Kawi Wildlife Park, Sabah, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyd Sun Fatt

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Sabah is blessed with natural forest habitats and rich with floras and faunas. Amongst its’ attraction is wildlife endemism. Lok Kawi Wildlife Park was established to provide an alternative wildlife tourism destination with its inhabitants from the wildlife species of Borneo. Since its opening in 2007, multitudes of tourists have visited the park. However, there has been no study to identify the visitor’s perspective on Lok Kawi Wildlife Park as man-made wildlife tourism destination. The study aims to assist the park’s management for the betterment of the park’s facilities and future development. A convenience sampling and a designed questionnaire was applied in this study, distributed after the visitors visited the park. The results showed that majority of the visitors were Malaysian and only a quarter were foreign visitors. Majority indicated that visiting the park is for recreational outing (holiday and only a few indicated that is an educational visit. Majority of the respondents knew the meaning of wildlife tourism and visiting the park’s is part of wildlife tourism. Most of the respondents came to know about the park’s existence through the local media and mostly agreed that the park indeed provide an authentic learning experience about wildlife, whilst creating wildlife conservation awareness.

  7. An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizinga, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    Streamflow data, basin characteristics, and rainfall data from 39 streamflow-gaging stations for urban areas in and adjacent to Missouri were used by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Metropolitan Sewer District of St. Louis to develop an initial abstraction and constant loss model (a time-distributed basin-loss model) and a gamma unit hydrograph (GUH) for urban areas in Missouri. Study-specific methods to determine peak streamflow and flood volume for a given rainfall event also were developed.

  8. Fish and wildlife evaluation of wetlands created by mining activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kepler, S.R.; Sabolcik, T.M.

    1994-01-01

    Four lacustrine wetland systems in Pennsylvania created by mining activities, either by sand and gravel or bituminous coal removal, were samples to determine the functional values of the fish and wildlife habitat. Most of the sampled sites were remnants of pre-act (1977) mining where minimal, if any, reclamation techniques were used. Natural succession within these impoundments have created ecosystems different in quality based on the availability of suitable habitat. Sampling techniques used to evaluate the wetland systems included initial water quality analyses, and aquatic habitat mapping using visual observations, LCD recorder, and computerized chart recorder. Fish populations were sampled using a boat mounted D.C. electrofishing unit with game fish being collected, weighted and measured and population estimates calculated as catch per unit effort (CPUE). Wildlife utilization of each site was conducted during the spring nesting season. Each site was surveyed for species utilization, nest searches determined whether nesting occurred and nesting success was noted. Wildlife utilization was determined by observation, tracks, calls, scat, etc. Whenever possible sites were monitored during the fall migration period to determine whether the sites were being utilized by migratory waterfowl. Wetland vegetative studies were also conducted at each site. Wetland species were identified and concentrations and dispersion of each wetland species were noted. Each sampled wetland data set is presented separately because of the variabilities between sampled sites based on the geology, reclamation status, and habitat

  9. Efforts to standardize wildlife toxicity values remain unrealized.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayfield, David B; Fairbrother, Anne

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife toxicity reference values (TRVs) are routinely used during screening level and baseline ecological risk assessments (ERAs). Risk assessment professionals often adopt TRVs from published sources to expedite risk analyses. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) developed ecological soil screening levels (Eco-SSLs) to provide a source of TRVs that would improve consistency among risk assessments. We conducted a survey and evaluated more than 50 publicly available, large-scale ERAs published in the last decade to evaluate if USEPA's goal of uniformity in the use of wildlife TRVs has been met. In addition, these ERAs were reviewed to understand current practices for wildlife TRV use and development within the risk assessment community. The use of no observed and lowest observed adverse effect levels culled from published compendia was common practice among the majority of ERAs reviewed. We found increasing use over time of TRVs established in the Eco-SSL documents; however, Eco-SSL TRV values were not used in the majority of recent ERAs and there continues to be wide variation in TRVs for commonly studied contaminants (e.g., metals, pesticides, PAHs, and PCBs). Variability in the toxicity values was driven by differences in the key studies selected, dose estimation methods, and use of uncertainty factors. These differences result in TRVs that span multiple orders of magnitude for many of the chemicals examined. This lack of consistency in TRV development leads to highly variable results in ecological risk assessments conducted throughout the United States. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  10. Estimating environmental value losses from earth materials excavation and infilling for large-scale airport construction: a case of Dalian Offshore Airport, Dalian, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Hua-Kun; Wang, Nuo; Wu, Nuan; Song, Nan-Qi; Zhu, Dao-Li

    2017-09-01

    Large-scale airport construction removes large quantities of earth materials, resulting in serious environmental pollution and ecosystem damage. However, studies of environmental concerns caused by the materials used in airport construction are still preliminary, and those case studies on the impacts of large-scale offshore airport development are very limited. China's Dalian Offshore Airport is considered here to study the environmental value loss from 240 million m 3 of materials excavations and 21 km 2 of artificial island infillings. The findings show that the calculated annual environmental value loss for the development of the Dalian Offshore Airport is approximately US$7.75 million, including US$1.81 million and US$1.47 million of direct economic loss of timber resources and marine biology resources, respectively, and US$1.53 million and US$2.79 million value losses of forest and marine ecosystem services damaged caused by materials excavation and infilling, respectively. The conclusions of this study provide an important foundation to quantitatively analyse the environmental impact of the Dalian Offshore Airport's development and can be used as a reference for similar engineering and environment impact assessment programs.

  11. Estimation of phosphorus loss from agricultural land in the Heartland region using the APEX model: a first step to evaluating phosphorus indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purpose. Phosphorus (P) indices are a key tool to minimize P loss from agricultural fields but there is insufficient water quality data to fully test them. Our goal is to use the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender Model (APEX), calibrated with existing edge-of-field runoff data, to refine P...

  12. Carbofuran affects wildlife on Virginia corn fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stinson, E.R.; Hayes, L.E.; Bush, P.B.; White, D.H.

    1994-01-01

    Forty-four Virginia corn fields on 11 farms were searched for evidence of dead or debilitated wildlife following in-furrow application of granular carbofuran (Furadan 15G) during April and May 1991. Evidence of pesticide poisoned wildlife, including dead animals, debilitated animals, feather spots, and fur spots was found on 33 fields on 10 farms. Carcasses of 61 birds, 4 mammals, and 1 reptile were recovered. Anticholinesterase poisoning was confirmed or suspected as the cause of most wildlife deaths based on the circumstances surrounding kills, necropsies of Carcasses, residue analyses, and brain ChE assays.

  13. The importance of vegetation density for tourists' wildlife viewing experience and satisfaction in African savannah ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbieu, Ugo; Grünewald, Claudia; Schleuning, Matthias; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    Southern African protected areas (PAs) harbour a great diversity of animals, which represent a large potential for wildlife tourism. In this region, global change is expected to result in vegetation changes, such as bush encroachment and increases in vegetation density. However, little is known on the influence of vegetation structure on wildlife tourists' wildlife viewing experience and satisfaction. In this study, we collected data on vegetation structure and perceived mammal densities along 196 road transects (each 5 km long) and conducted a social survey with 651 questionnaires across four PAs in three Southern African countries. Our objectives were 1) to assess visitors' attitude towards vegetation, 2) to test the influence of perceived mammal density and vegetation structure on the easiness to spot animals, and 3) on visitors' satisfaction during their visit to PAs. Using a Boosted Regression Tree procedure, we found mostly negative non-linear relationships between vegetation density and wildlife tourists' experience, and positive relationships between perceived mammal densities and wildlife tourists' experience. In particular, wildlife tourists disliked road transects with high estimates of vegetation density. Similarly, the easiness to spot animals dropped at thresholds of high vegetation density and at perceived mammal densities lower than 46 individuals per road transect. Finally, tourists' satisfaction declined linearly with vegetation density and dropped at mammal densities smaller than 26 individuals per transect. Our results suggest that vegetation density has important impacts on tourists' wildlife viewing experience and satisfaction. Hence, the management of PAs in savannah landscapes should consider how tourists perceive these landscapes and their mammal diversity in order to maintain and develop a sustainable wildlife tourism.

  14. The importance of vegetation density for tourists’ wildlife viewing experience and satisfaction in African savannah ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grünewald, Claudia; Schleuning, Matthias; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    Southern African protected areas (PAs) harbour a great diversity of animals, which represent a large potential for wildlife tourism. In this region, global change is expected to result in vegetation changes, such as bush encroachment and increases in vegetation density. However, little is known on the influence of vegetation structure on wildlife tourists’ wildlife viewing experience and satisfaction. In this study, we collected data on vegetation structure and perceived mammal densities along 196 road transects (each 5 km long) and conducted a social survey with 651 questionnaires across four PAs in three Southern African countries. Our objectives were 1) to assess visitors’ attitude towards vegetation, 2) to test the influence of perceived mammal density and vegetation structure on the easiness to spot animals, and 3) on visitors’ satisfaction during their visit to PAs. Using a Boosted Regression Tree procedure, we found mostly negative non-linear relationships between vegetation density and wildlife tourists’ experience, and positive relationships between perceived mammal densities and wildlife tourists’ experience. In particular, wildlife tourists disliked road transects with high estimates of vegetation density. Similarly, the easiness to spot animals dropped at thresholds of high vegetation density and at perceived mammal densities lower than 46 individuals per road transect. Finally, tourists’ satisfaction declined linearly with vegetation density and dropped at mammal densities smaller than 26 individuals per transect. Our results suggest that vegetation density has important impacts on tourists’ wildlife viewing experience and satisfaction. Hence, the management of PAs in savannah landscapes should consider how tourists perceive these landscapes and their mammal diversity in order to maintain and develop a sustainable wildlife tourism. PMID:28957420

  15. Wildlife-friendly farming benefits rare birds, bees and plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pywell, Richard F; Heard, Matthew S; Bradbury, Richard B; Hinsley, Shelley; Nowakowski, Marek; Walker, Kevin J; Bullock, James M

    2012-10-23

    Agricultural intensification is a leading cause of global biodiversity loss, especially for threatened and near-threatened species. One widely implemented response is 'wildlife-friendly farming', involving the close integration of conservation and extensive farming practices within agricultural landscapes. However, the putative benefits from this controversial policy are currently either unknown or thought unlikely to extend to rare and declining species. Here, we show that new, evidence-based approaches to habitat creation on intensively managed farmland in England can achieve large increases in plant, bee and bird species. In particular, we found that habitat enhancement methods designed to provide the requirements of sensitive target biota consistently increased the richness and abundance of both rare and common species, with 10-fold to greater than 100-fold more rare species per sample area than generalized conventional conservation measures. Furthermore, targeting landscapes of high species richness amplified beneficial effects on the least mobile taxa: plants and bees. Our results provide the first unequivocal support for a national wildlife-friendly farming policy and suggest that this approach should be implemented much more extensively to address global biodiversity loss. However, to be effective, these conservation measures must be evidence-based, and developed using sound knowledge of the ecological requirements of key species.

  16. Columbia River wildlife mitigation habitat evaluation procedures report: Scotch Creek Wildlife Area, Berg Brothers, and Douglas County pygmy rabbit projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashley, P.R.; Ratassepp, J.; Berger, M.; Judd, S.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Habitat Evaluation Procedure study was conducted to determine baseline habitat units (HUs) on the Scotch Creek, Mineral Hill, Pogue Mountain, Chesaw and Tunk Valley Habitat Areas (collectively known as the Scotch Creek Wildlife Area) in Okanogan County, Sagebrush Flat and the Dormaler property in Douglas County, and the Berg Brothers ranch located in Okanogan County within the Colville Reservation. A HEP team comprised of individuals from the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (Appendix A) conducted baseline habitat surveys using the following HEP evaluation species: mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus), pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginiana), mink (Mustela vison), Canada goose (Branta canadensis), downy woodpecker (Picoides pubescens), Lewis woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis), and Yellow warbler (Dendroica petechia). Results of the HEP analysis are listed below. General ratings (poor, marginal, fair, etc.,) are described in Appendix B. Mule deer habitat was marginal lacking diversity and quantify of suitable browse species. Sharp-tailed grouse habitat was marginal lacking residual nesting cover and suitable winter habitat Pygmy rabbit habitat was in fair condition except for the Dormaier property which was rated marginal due to excessive shrub canopy closure at some sites. This report is an analysis of baseline habitat conditions on mitigation project lands and provides estimated habitat units for mitigation crediting purposes. In addition, information from this document could be used by wildlife habitat managers to develop management strategies for specific project sites

  17. Columbia River Wildlife Mitigation Habitat Evaluation Procedures Report / Scotch Creek Wildlife Area, Berg Brothers, and Douglas County Pygmy Rabbit Projects.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashley, Paul R.

    1997-01-01

    This Habitat Evaluation Procedure study was conducted to determine baseline habitat units (HUs) on the Scotch Creek, Mineral Hill, Pogue Mountain, Chesaw and Tunk Valley Habitat Areas (collectively known as the Scotch Creek Wildlife Area) in Okanogan County, Sagebrush Flat and the Dormaler property in Douglas County, and the Berg Brothers ranch located in Okanogan County within the Colville Reservation. A HEP team comprised of individuals from the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (Appendix A) conducted baseline habitat surveys using the following HEP evaluation species: mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus), pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginiana), mink (Mustela vison), Canada goose (Branta canadensis), downy woodpecker (Picoides pubescens), Lewis woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis), and Yellow warbler (Dendroica petechia). Results of the HEP analysis are listed below. General ratings (poor, marginal, fair, etc.,) are described in Appendix B. Mule deer habitat was marginal lacking diversity and quantify of suitable browse species. Sharp-tailed grouse habitat was marginal lacking residual nesting cover and suitable winter habitat Pygmy rabbit habitat was in fair condition except for the Dormaier property which was rated marginal due to excessive shrub canopy closure at some sites. This report is an analysis of baseline habitat conditions on mitigation project lands and provides estimated habitat units for mitigation crediting purposes. In addition, information from this document could be used by wildlife habitat managers to develop management strategies for specific project sites.

  18. 77 FR 38317 - Wildlife and Hunting Heritage Conservation Council

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Fish and Wildlife Service [FWS-R9-EA-2012-N150; FF09D00000-FXGO1664091HCC05D-123] Wildlife and Hunting Heritage Conservation Council AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of teleconference. SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, announce a...

  19. 78 FR 10200 - Proposed Information Collection; Captive Wildlife Safety Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-13

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Fish and Wildlife Service [FWS-HQ-LE-2013-N020; FF09L00200-FX-LE12200900000] Proposed Information Collection; Captive Wildlife Safety Act AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice; request for comments. SUMMARY: We (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) will ask the...

  20. 76 FR 39433 - Wildlife and Hunting Heritage Conservation Council

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Fish and Wildlife Service [FWS-R9-EA-2011-N125; 90100-1664-1HCC-5A] Wildlife and Hunting Heritage Conservation Council AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of teleconference. SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service), announce a public...