WorldWideScience

Sample records for weather and climate

  1. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  2. Climate, weather, and hops

    Science.gov (United States)

    As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

  3. Weather, Climate and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  4. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  5. NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

  6. Predictability of weather and climate

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Palmer, Tim; Hagedorn, Renate

    2006-01-01

    ... and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-quality chapter autho...

  7. Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc; hide

    2016-01-01

    Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

  8. Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

  9. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

  10. Periodic weather and climate variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Vladimir V

    2002-01-01

    Variations in meteorological parameters are largely due to periodic processes and can be forecast for several years. Many such processes are related to astronomical factors such as the gravitational influences of the Moon and the Sun, and the modulation of solar irradiance by lunar and planetary motion. The Moon, Jupiter, and Venus have the strongest effect. These influences produce lines in the spectra of meteorological variations, which are combinations of the harmonics of the frequencies of revolution of the planets, the Earth, and the Moon around the Sun with the harmonics of the lunar revolution around the Earth. Due to frequency differences between the orbital and radial motions, fine spectral features of three types appear: line splitting, line-profile complications due to radial oscillations, and additional lines due to the combination of radial-oscillation frequencies with perturbation harmonics. (reviews of topical problems)

  11. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  12. Mountain Weather and Climate, Third Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastenrath, Stefan

    2009-05-01

    For colleagues with diverse interests in the atmosphere, glaciers, radiation, landforms, water resources, vegetation, human implications, and more, Mountain Weather and Climate can be a valuable source of guidance and literature references. The book is organized into seven chapters: 1, Mountains and their climatological study; 2,Geographical controls of mountain meteorological elements; 3, Circulation systems related to orography; 4, Climatic characteristics of mountains; 5, Regional case studies; 6, Mountain bioclimatology; and 7, Changes in mountain climates. These chapters are supported by l78 diagrams and photographs, 47 tables, and some 2000 literature references. The volume has an appendix of units and energy conversion factors and a subject index, but it lacks an author index.

  13. Tackling Weather and Climate Change Creatively in Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Murray

    2013-01-01

    In this article, the author offers some practical support for teaching about weather, climate and climate change. In England, weather and climate are traditionally taught within the geography curriculum, although it is actually a very scientific subject, involving skills such as making careful observations and measurements, interpreting data…

  14. Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

    2017-12-01

    A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

  15. Lightning Applications in Weather and Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Colin G.

    2013-11-01

    Thunderstorms, and lightning in particular, are a major natural hazard to the public, aviation, power companies, and wildfire managers. Lightning causes great damage and death every year but also tells us about the inner working of storms. Since lightning can be monitored from great distances from the storms themselves, lightning may allow us to provide early warnings for severe weather phenomena such as hail storms, flash floods, tornadoes, and even hurricanes. Lightning itself may impact the climate of the Earth by producing nitrogen oxides (NOx), a precursor of tropospheric ozone, which is a powerful greenhouse gas. Thunderstorms themselves influence the climate system by the redistribution of heat, moisture, and momentum in the atmosphere. What about future changes in lightning and thunderstorm activity? Many studies show that higher surface temperatures produce more lightning, but future changes will depend on what happens to the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere, as well as changes in water balance, and even aerosol loading of the atmosphere. Finally, lightning itself may provide a useful tool for tracking climate change in the future, due to the nonlinear link between lightning, temperature, upper tropospheric water vapor, and cloud cover.

  16. Climatic and weather factors affecting fire occurrence and behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall P. Benson; John O. Roads; David R. Weise

    2009-01-01

    Weather and climate have a profound influence on wildland fire ignition potential, fire behavior, and fire severity. Local weather and climate are affected by large-scale patterns of winds over the hemispheres that predispose wildland fuels to fire. The characteristics of wildland fuels, especially the moisture content, ultimately determine fire behavior and the impact...

  17. Supercomputing for weather and climate modelling: convenience or necessity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate modelling require dedicated computer infrastructure in order to generate high-resolution, large ensemble, various models with different configurations, etc. in order to optimise operational forecasts and climate projections. High...

  18. A Severe Weather Laboratory Exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate Class Using Active Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundstein, Andrew; Durkee, Joshua; Frye, John; Andersen, Theresa; Lieberman, Jordan

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a new severe weather laboratory exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate class, appropriate for first and second year college students (including nonscience majors), that incorporates inquiry-based learning techniques. In the lab, students play the role of meteorologists making forecasts for severe weather. The…

  19. Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

  20. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  1. Climatic history - answers on the variability of weather and climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaser, R.; Hagedorn, H.

    1994-01-01

    The paper is concerned with various aspects of climatic history. Emphasis is on the spectrum of data and methods used in historical climatology. The following section is devoted to an outline of the short- and long-range climatic changes since 1500 A.D. that show how much the climate has varied in space and time. It is pointed out that climatic extremes have been an ever-recurrent phenomenon throughout history. (orig.) [de

  2. Games and Simulations for Climate, Weather and Earth Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, R. M.; Clark, S.

    2015-12-01

    We will demonstrate several interactive, computer-based simulations, games, and other interactive multimedia. These resources were developed for weather, climate, atmospheric science, and related Earth system science education. The materials were created by the UCAR Center for Science Education. These materials have been disseminated via our web site (SciEd.ucar.edu), webinars, online courses, teacher workshops, and large touchscreen displays in weather and Sun-Earth connections exhibits in NCAR's Mesa Lab facility in Boulder, Colorado. Our group has also assembled a web-based list of similar resources, especially simulations and games, from other sources that touch upon weather, climate, and atmospheric science topics. We'll briefly demonstrate this directory.

  3. Climate change, weather and road deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Leon

    2018-06-01

    In 2015, a 7% increase in road deaths per population in the USA reversed the 35-year downward trend. Here I test the hypothesis that weather influenced the change in trend. I used linear regression to estimate the effect of temperature and precipitation on miles driven per capita in urbanizedurbanised areas of the USA during 2010. I matched date and county of death with temperature on that date and number of people exposed to that temperature to calculate the risk per persons exposed to specific temperatures. I employed logistic regression analysis of temperature, precipitation and other risk factors prevalent in 2014 to project expected deaths in 2015 among the 100 most populous counties in the USA. Comparison of actual and projected deaths provided an estimate of deaths expected without the temperature increase. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  4. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  5. Report of a Policy Forum: Weather, Climate, and Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-07-01

    The report of a policy forum on Weather, Climate, and Energy presents findings and recommendations that, if implemented, could position the energy sector, the providers of weather and climate science and services, and energy consumers to mange more cooperatively and effectively the production, distribution, and consumption of electrical power and fossil fuels. Recent U.S. experience with a series of energy shortages encouraged the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program to join with the University of Oklahoma in the development of a forum to address the issues connected with responding to those shortages. Nearly 100 representatives from the public, private, and academic portions of the energy production sector, the meteorological community, political and corporate leaders, weather risk management analysts, and policy makers met on October 16-17, 2001 to discuss these policy issues.

  6. Climate and weather impact timing of emergence of bats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winifred F Frick

    Full Text Available Interest in forecasting impacts of climate change have heightened attention in recent decades to how animals respond to variation in climate and weather patterns. One difficulty in determining animal response to climate variation is lack of long-term datasets that record animal behaviors over decadal scales. We used radar observations from the national NEXRAD network of Doppler weather radars to measure how group behavior in a colonially-roosting bat species responded to annual variation in climate and daily variation in weather over the past 11 years. Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis form dense aggregations in cave roosts in Texas. These bats emerge from caves daily to forage at high altitudes, which makes them detectable with Doppler weather radars. Timing of emergence in bats is often viewed as an adaptive trade-off between emerging early and risking predation or increased competition and emerging late which restricts foraging opportunities. We used timing of emergence from five maternity colonies of Brazilian free-tailed bats in south-central Texas during the peak lactation period (15 June-15 July to determine whether emergence behavior was associated with summer drought conditions and daily temperatures. Bats emerged significantly earlier during years with extreme drought conditions than during moist years. Bats emerged later on days with high surface temperatures in both dry and moist years, but there was no relationship between surface temperatures and timing of emergence in summers with normal moisture levels. We conclude that emergence behavior is a flexible animal response to climate and weather conditions and may be a useful indicator for monitoring animal response to long-term shifts in climate.

  7. Toward seamless weather-climate and environmental prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunet, Gilbert

    2016-04-01

    Over the last decade or so, predicting the weather, climate and atmospheric composition has emerged as one of the most important areas of scientific endeavor. This is partly because the remarkable increase in skill of current weather forecasts has made society more and more dependent on them day to day for a whole range of decision making. And it is partly because climate change is now widely accepted and the realization is growing rapidly that it will affect every person in the world profoundly, either directly or indirectly. One of the important endeavors of our societies is to remain at the cutting-edge of modelling and predicting the evolution of the fully coupled environmental system: atmosphere (weather and composition), oceans, land surface (physical and biological), and cryosphere. This effort will provide an increasingly accurate and reliable service across all the socio-economic sectors that are vulnerable to the effects of adverse weather and climatic conditions, whether now or in the future. This emerging challenge was at the center of the World Weather Open Science Conference (Montreal, 2014).The outcomes of the conference are described in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) book: Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Months, (G. Brunet, S. Jones, P. Ruti Eds., WMO-No. 1156, 2015). It is freely available on line at the WMO website. We will discuss some of the outcomes of the conference for the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) long term goals and provide examples of seamless modelling and prediction across a range of timescales at convective and sub-kilometer scales for regional coupled forecasting applications at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

  8. The weather and Climate: emergent laws and multifractal cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.

    2016-12-01

    In the atmosphere, nonlinear terms are typically about a trillion times larger than linear ones; we anticipate the emergence of high level turbulence laws. The classical turbulence laws were restricted to homogeneous and isotropic systems; to apply them to the atmosphere they must be generalized to account for strong anisotropy (especially stratification) and variability (intermittency). Over the last 30 years, using scaling symmetry principles and multifractal cascades, this has been done. While hitherto they were believed applicable only up to ≈ 100 m, (generalized) turbulence laws now anisotropic and multifractal, they cover spatial scales up planetary in extent and in time well beyond weather scales to include the climate. These higher level laws are stochastic in nature and provide the theoretical basis both for stochastic parametrizations as well as stochastic forecasting. In the time domain the emergent laws for fluctuations DT (for example in temperature T) have means T > ≈ DtH i.e. they are scaling (power laws) in the time interval Dt. We find find exponents H>0 (fluctuations increase with scale) up to ≈ Dt ≈10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures, the analogous transition in the ocean is at Dt ≈ 1 year on Mars it is Dt ≈ 2 sols). At larger Dt, there is a transition to a new "macroweather" regime with H≈30 years (anthropocene; larger in the pre-industrial epoch), new climate processes begin to dominate, leading to H>0. "The climate is what you expect, the weather is what you get": the climate is thought to be a kind of "average weather". However this "expected" behavior is macroweather, not the climate. On the contrary, the climate is the new even lower frequency regime at scales Dt> 30 yrs and it has statistical properties very similar to the weather. At these scales, "macroweather is what you expect, the climate is what you get". The scaling in the macroweather regime implies that there is a long-term memory. We show how the

  9. Devils Lake Climate, Weather, and Water Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsfall, F. M.; Kluck, D. R.; Brewer, M.; Timofeyeva, M. M.; Symonds, J.; Dummer, S.; Frazier, M.; Shulski, M.; Akyuz, A.

    2010-12-01

    North Dakota’s Devils Lake area represents an example of a community struggling with a serious climate-related problem. The Devils Lake water level elevation has been rising since 1993 due to a prolonged wet period, and it is now approaching the spill stage into the Cheyenne River and ultimately into the Red River of the North. The impacts of the rising water have already caused significant disruption to the surrounding communities, and even greater impacts will be seen if the lake reaches the spill elevation. These impacts include flooding, water quality issues, impacts to agriculture and ecosystems, and impacts to local and regional economies. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through the National Weather Service (NWS), the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), and the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), provides the U.S. public with climate, water, and weather services, including meteorological, hydrological and climate data, warnings, and forecasts of weather and climate from near- to longer-term timescales. In support of the people of Devils Lake, the surrounding communities, the people of North Dakota, and the other Federal agencies with responsibilities in the area, NOAA launched the first ever climate-sensitive decision support web site (www.devilslake.noaa.gov) in July 2010. The website is providing integrated weather, water, and climate information for the area, and has links to information from other agencies, such as USGS, to help decision makers as they address this ongoing challenge. This paper will describe the website and other ongoing activities by NOAA in support of this community.

  10. Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, T N; Zanna, Laure

    2013-01-01

    The local instabilities of a nonlinear dynamical system can be characterized by the leading singular vectors of its linearized operator. The leading singular vectors are perturbations with the greatest linear growth and are therefore key in assessing the system’s predictability. In this paper, the analysis of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate and ensemble forecasting is discussed. An overview of the role of singular vectors in informing about the error growth rate in numerical models of the atmosphere is given. This is followed by their use in the initialization of ensemble weather forecasts. Singular vectors for the ocean and coupled ocean–atmosphere system in order to understand the predictability of climate phenomena such as ENSO and meridional overturning circulation are reviewed and their potential use to initialize seasonal and decadal forecasts is considered. As stochastic parameterizations are being implemented, some speculations are made about the future of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate for theoretical applications and at the operational level. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Lyapunov analysis: from dynamical systems theory to applications’. (review)

  11. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed

  12. Accelerating Climate and Weather Simulations through Hybrid Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Shujia; Cruz, Carlos; Duffy, Daniel; Tucker, Robert; Purcell, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Unconventional multi- and many-core processors (e.g. IBM (R) Cell B.E.(TM) and NVIDIA (R) GPU) have emerged as effective accelerators in trial climate and weather simulations. Yet these climate and weather models typically run on parallel computers with conventional processors (e.g. Intel, AMD, and IBM) using Message Passing Interface. To address challenges involved in efficiently and easily connecting accelerators to parallel computers, we investigated using IBM's Dynamic Application Virtualization (TM) (IBM DAV) software in a prototype hybrid computing system with representative climate and weather model components. The hybrid system comprises two Intel blades and two IBM QS22 Cell B.E. blades, connected with both InfiniBand(R) (IB) and 1-Gigabit Ethernet. The system significantly accelerates a solar radiation model component by offloading compute-intensive calculations to the Cell blades. Systematic tests show that IBM DAV can seamlessly offload compute-intensive calculations from Intel blades to Cell B.E. blades in a scalable, load-balanced manner. However, noticeable communication overhead was observed, mainly due to IP over the IB protocol. Full utilization of IB Sockets Direct Protocol and the lower latency production version of IBM DAV will reduce this overhead.

  13. The weather and climate: emergent laws and multifractal cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, Shaun; Schertzer, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Science in general and physics and geophysics in particular are hierarchies of interlocking theories and models with low level, fundamental laws such as quantum mechanics and statistical mechanics providing the underpinnings for the emergence of the qualitatively new, higher level laws of thermodynamics and continuum mechanics that provide the current bases for modelling the weather and climate. Yest it was the belief of generations of turbulence pioneers (notably Richardson, Kolmogorov, Obhukhov, Corrsin, Bolgiano) that at sufficiently high levels of nonlinearity (quantified by the Reynold's number, of the order 10**12 in the atmosphere) that new even higher level laws would emerge describing "fully developed turbulence". However for atmospheric applications, the pioneers' eponymous laws suffered from two basic restrictions - isotropy and homogeneity - that prevented them from being valid over wide ranges of scale. Over the last thirty years both of these restrictions have been overcome - the former with the generalization from isotropic to strongly anisotropic notions of scale (to account notably for stratification), and from homogeneity to strong heterogeneity (intermittency) via multifractal cascades. In this presentation we give an overview of recent developments and analyses covering huge ranges of space-time scales (including weather, macroweather and climate time scales). We show how the combination of strong anisotropy and strong intermittency commonly leads to the "phenomenological fallacy" in which morphology is confounded with mechanism. With the help of stochastic models, we show how processes with vastly different large and small scale morphologies can arise from a unique multifractal dynamical mechanisms [Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2013]. References: Lovejoy, S., and D. Schertzer (2013), The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades, 480 pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  14. Climate and Weather Analysis of Afghanistan Thunderstorms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    dry, continental polar (cP) air. The subtropical jet (STJ) and Extratropical storm track tend to lie south of Kabul. Mean high SFC temperatures...March-April-May (MAM). Note that AFG lies to the east of a broad trough centered over southern Europe and to the west of broad ridge centered over... Extratropical Cyclone FAR False Alarm Rate FOB Forward Operating Base FRN Forecaster Reference Notebook GFS Global Forecast System GoA

  15. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

    2017-06-19

    Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

  16. Effects of corpuscular radiation on weather and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucha, V.

    1989-01-01

    There is no doubt that the antropogenic effect play an important role in the effects of corpuscular radiation on weather and climate. The task, however, is to distinguish between antropogenic effect in the atmosphere due to human activities and natural climatic fluctuations influencing biological systems. The increase in global temperature during the past 100 years is in relatively good coincidence with the increase in geomagnetic (corpuscular) activity. It is concluded that it could have been the increase in temperature on the Northern Hemisphere, due to the processes occurring in the auroral oval under enhanced corpuscular radiation which led to an increased atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the past. Both processes, i.e., antropogenic and solar activity effects, should be therefore intensively studied due to their important role for elucidating the past and present global change mainly in temperature, climate and biological systems

  17. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  18. Atlas : A library for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deconinck, Willem; Bauer, Peter; Diamantakis, Michail; Hamrud, Mats; Kühnlein, Christian; Maciel, Pedro; Mengaldo, Gianmarco; Quintino, Tiago; Raoult, Baudouin; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.; Wedi, Nils P.

    2017-11-01

    The algorithms underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models that have been developed in the past few decades face an increasing challenge caused by the paradigm shift imposed by hardware vendors towards more energy-efficient devices. In order to provide a sustainable path to exascale High Performance Computing (HPC), applications become increasingly restricted by energy consumption. As a result, the emerging diverse and complex hardware solutions have a large impact on the programming models traditionally used in NWP software, triggering a rethink of design choices for future massively parallel software frameworks. In this paper, we present Atlas, a new software library that is currently being developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with the scope of handling data structures required for NWP applications in a flexible and massively parallel way. Atlas provides a versatile framework for the future development of efficient NWP and climate applications on emerging HPC architectures. The applications range from full Earth system models, to specific tools required for post-processing weather forecast products. The Atlas library thus constitutes a step towards affordable exascale high-performance simulations by providing the necessary abstractions that facilitate the application in heterogeneous HPC environments by promoting the co-design of NWP algorithms with the underlying hardware.

  19. A generalized theory of sun-climate/weather link and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-07-01

    We generalize the theory of Sun-Climate/weather links and climatic change developed earlier by the author. On the basis of this theory, we show mathematically that key climatic/weather parameters are continuously subjected to determinable amplitude modulations and other variations which may be useful in climatic prediction work. A number of new and known terrestrial oscillations in climate and atmospheric behaviour in general, including the known quasi-biennial oscillations and many others, are deduced from the theory and accounted for in terms of their causative physical processes. Finally we briefly discuss the possibility of applying the theory to the planets Mars and Venus as well as Saturn's largest satellite, Titan. (author). 30 refs, 1 fig

  20. Using Virtualization to Integrate Weather, Climate, and Coastal Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; Figueiredo, R.; Sheng, Y.

    2012-12-01

    To better understand and communicate the important roles of weather and climate on the coastal environment, a unique publically available tool is being developed to support research, education, and outreach activities. This tool uses virtualization technologies to facilitate an interactive, hands-on environment in which students, researchers, and general public can perform their own numerical modeling experiments. While prior efforts have focused solely on the study of the coastal and estuary environments, this effort incorporates the community supported weather and climate model (WRF-ARW) into the Coastal Science Educational Virtual Appliance (CSEVA), an education tool used to assist in the learning of coastal transport processes; storm surge and inundation; and evacuation modeling. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation, community developed and supported, mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to be used internationally for research, operations, and teaching. It includes two dynamical solvers (ARW - Advanced Research WRF and NMM - Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) as well as a data assimilation system. WRF-ARW is the ARW dynamics solver combined with other components of the WRF system which was developed primarily at NCAR, community support provided by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) division of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Included with WRF is the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) which is a set of programs to prepare input for real-data simulations. The CSEVA is based on the Grid Appliance (GA) framework and is built using virtual machine (VM) and virtual networking technologies. Virtualization supports integration of an operating system, libraries (e.g. Fortran, C, Perl, NetCDF, etc. necessary to build WRF), web server, numerical models/grids/inputs, pre-/post-processing tools (e.g. WPS / RIP4 or UPS), graphical user interfaces, "Cloud"-computing infrastructure and other tools into a

  1. Growing Diversity in Space Weather and Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, L. P.; Ng, C.; Marchese, P.; Austin, S.; Frost, J.; Cheung, T. D.; Robbins, I.; Carlson, B. E.; Steiner, J. C.; Tremberger, G.; Paglione, T.; Damas, C.; Howard, A.; Scalzo, F.

    2013-12-01

    Space Weather and Global Climate Impacts are critical items on the present national and international science agendas. Understanding and forecasting solar activity is increasingly important for manned space flight, unmanned missions (including communications satellites, satellites that monitor the space and earth environment), and regional power grids. The ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate is critical to survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies via advanced degrees and pursue careers related to these areas. This CUNY-based initiative, supported by NASA and NSF, provided undergraduate research experience for more than 70 students in topics ranging from urban impacts of global climate change to magnetic rope structure, solar flares and CMEs. Other research topics included investigations of the ionosphere using a CubeSat, stratospheric aerosols in Jupiter's atmosphere, and ocean climate modeling. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences included CUNY faculty, GISS and GSFC scientists. Students were recruited from CUNY colleges as well as other colleges including Spelman, Cornell, Rutgers and SUNY colleges. Fifty-eight percent of the undergraduate students were under-represented minorities and thirty-four percent were female. Many of the research teams included high school teachers and students as well as graduate students. Supporting workshops for students included data analysis and visualization tools, space weather, planetary energy balance and BalloonSats. The project is supported by NASA awards NNX10AE72G and NNX09AL77G, and NSF REU Site award 0851932.

  2. Enhanced weathering strategies for stabilizing climate and averting ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Lyla L.; Quirk, Joe; Thorley, Rachel M. S.; Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James; Ridgwell, Andy; Lomas, Mark R.; Banwart, Steve A.; Beerling, David J.

    2016-04-01

    Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m-2 yr-1) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

  3. Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Lyla L.; Quirk, Joe; Thorley, Rachel M. S.; Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James; Ridgwell, Andy; Lomas, Mark R.; Banwart, Steve A.; Beerling, David J.

    2015-01-01

    Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

  4. Weather and Climate Indicators for Coffee Rust Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, S.; Imbach, P. A.; Avelino, J.; Anzueto, F.; del Carmen Calderón, G.

    2014-12-01

    Coffee rust is a disease that has significant impacts on the livelihoods of those who are dependent on the Central American coffee sector. Our investigation has focussed on the weather and climate indicators that favoured the high incidence of coffee rust disease in Central America in 2012 by assessing daily temperature and precipitation data available from 81 weather stations in the INSIVUMEH and ANACAFE networks located in Guatemala. The temperature data were interpolated to determine the corresponding daily data at 1250 farms located across Guatemala, between 400 and 1800 m elevation. Additionally, CHIRPS five day (pentad) data has been used to assess the anomalies between the 2012 and the climatological average precipitation data at farm locations. The weather conditions in 2012 displayed considerable variations from the climatological data. In general the minimum daily temperatures were higher than the corresponding climatology while the maximum temperatures were lower. As a result, the daily diurnal temperature range was generally lower than the corresponding climatological range, leading to an increased number of days where the temperatures fell within the optimal range for either influencing the susceptibility of the coffee plants to coffee rust development during the dry season, or for the development of lesions on the coffee leaves during the wet season. The coffee rust latency period was probably shortened as a result, and farms at high altitudes were impacted due to these increases in minimum temperature. Factors taken into consideration in developing indicators for coffee rust development include: the diurnal temperature range, altitude, the environmental lapse rate and the phenology. We will present the results of our study and discuss the potential for each of the derived weather and climatological indicators to be used within risk assessments and to eventually be considered for use within an early warning system for coffee rust disease.

  5. Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

    2016-01-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  6. Variations in pollen counts largely explained by climate and weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Stephan; Damialis, Athanasios; Estrella, Nicole; Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2017-04-01

    The interaction between climate and vegetation is well studied within phenology. Climatic / weather conditions affect e.g. flowering date, length of vegetation period, start and end of the season and the plant growth. Besides phenological stages also pollen counts can be used to investigate the interaction between climate and vegetation. Pollen emission and distribution is directly influenced by temperature, wind speed, wind direction and humidity/precipitation. The objective of this project is to study daily/sub daily variations in pollen counts of woody and herbaceous plant species along an altitudinal gradient with different climatic conditions during the vegetation period. Measurements of pollen were carried out with three volumetric pollen traps installed at the altitudes 450 m a.s.l (Freising), 700 m a.s.l (Garmisch-Partenkirchen), and 2700 m a.s.l (Schneefernerhaus near Zugspitze) representing gradient from north of Munich towards the highest mountain of Germany. Airborne pollen concentrations were recorded during the years 2014-2015. The altitudinal range of these three stations accompanied by different microclimates ("space for time approach") can be used as proxy for climate change and to assess its impact on pollen counts and thus allergenic risk for human health. For example the pollen season is shortened and pollen amount is reduced at higher sites. For detailed investigations pollen of the species Plantago, Quercus, Poaceae, Cupressaceae, Cyperacea, Betula and Platanus were chosen, because those are found in appropriate quantities. In general, pollen captured in the pollen traps to a certain extent has its origin from the immediate surrounding. Thus, it mirrors local species distribution. But furthermore the distance of pollen transport is also based on (micro-) climatic conditions, land cover and topography. The pollen trap shortly below the summit of Zugspitze (Schneefernerhaus) has an alpine environment without vegetation nearby. Therefore, this

  7. Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Lesk, Corey; Bader, Daniel; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

  8. Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth -syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

  9. Weather and Climate Manipulation as an Optimal Control for Adaptive Dynamical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Soldatenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The weather and climate manipulation is examined as an optimal control problem for the earth climate system, which is considered as a complex adaptive dynamical system. Weather and climate manipulations are actually amorphous operations. Since their objectives are usually formulated vaguely, the expected results are fairly unpredictable and uncertain. However, weather and climate modification is a purposeful process and, therefore, we can formulate operations to manipulate weather and climate as the optimization problem within the framework of the optimal control theory. The complexity of the earth’s climate system is discussed and illustrated using the simplified low-order coupled chaotic dynamical system. The necessary conditions of optimality are derived for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This confirms that even a relatively simplified control problem for the atmospheric dynamics requires significant efforts to obtain the solution.

  10. Where to find weather and climatic data for forest research studies and management planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald A. Haines

    1977-01-01

    Forest-range research or operational study designs should include the possible effects of weather and climate. This document describes the meteorological observational networks, the data available from them, and where the information is stored.

  11. National programme for weather, climate and atmosphere research. Annual report 1984/85

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Louw, CW

    1984-12-01

    Full Text Available This report reviews the activities of the National Programme for Weather, Climate and Atmosphere Research (NPWCAR) for 1984/85, highlights the findings and also discusses future developments and general needs regarding research within the framework...

  12. Transportation system resilience, extreme weather and climate change : a thought leadership series

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    This report summarizes key findings from the Transportation System Resilience, Extreme Weather and Climate Change thought leadership series held at Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center from fall 2013 to spring 2014.

  13. Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

  14. Climate and weather risk in natural resource models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Nathaniel Henry

    This work, consisting of three manuscripts, addresses natural resource management under risk due to variation in climate and weather. In three distinct but theoretically related applications, I quantify the role of natural resources in stabilizing economic outcomes. In Manuscript 1, we address policy designed to effect the risk of cyanobacteria blooms in a drinking water reservoir through watershed wide policy. Combining a hydrologic and economic model for a watershed in Rhode Island, we solve for the efficient allocation of best management practices (BMPs) on livestock pastures to meet a monthly risk-based as well as mean-based water quality objective. In order to solve for the efficient allocations of nutrient control effort, we optimize a probabilistically constrained integer-programming problem representing the choices made on each farm and the resultant conditions that support cyanobacteria blooms. In doing so, we employ a genetic algorithm (GA). We hypothesize that management based on controlling the upper tail of the probability distribution of phosphorus loading implies different efficient management actions as compared to controlling mean loading. We find a shift to more intense effort on fewer acres when a probabilistic objective is specified with cost savings of meeting risk levels of up to 25% over mean loading based policies. Additionally, we illustrate the relative cost effectiveness of various policies designed to meet this risk-based objective. Rainfall and the subsequent overland runoff is the source of transportation of nutrients to a receiving water body, with larger amounts of phosphorus moving in more intense rainfall events. We highlight the importance of this transportation mechanism by comparing policies under climate change scenarios, where the intensity of rainfall is projected to increase and the time series process of rainfall to change. In Manuscript 2, we introduce a new economic groundwater model that incorporates the gradual shift

  15. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate.

  16. Cosmic rays and space weather. Effects on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorman, L.I.; Israel Space Agency; Russian Academy of Sciences

    2012-01-01

    We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate. (orig.)

  17. There's no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothing: climate, weather and active school transportation in Toronto, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Raktim; Faulkner, Guy

    2012-07-10

    Climatic conditions may enable or deter active school transportation in many North American cities, but the topic remains largely overlooked in the existing literature. This study explores the effect of seasonal climate (i.e., fall versus winter) and weekly weather conditions (i.e., temperature, precipitation) on active travelling to school across different built and policy environments. Home-to-school trips by 11-12-year-old children in the City of Toronto were examined using data from the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey. Binomial logistic regressions were estimated to explore the correlates of the choice of active (i.e., walking) versus non-active (i.e., private automobile, transit and school bus) mode for school trips. Climate and weather-related variables were not associated with choice of school travel mode. Children living within the sidewalk snow-plough zone (i.e., in the inner-suburban neighbourhoods) were less likely to walk to school than children living outside of the zone (i.e., in the inner-city neighbourhoods). Given that seasonality and short-term weather conditions appear not to limit active school transportation in general, built environment interventions designed to facilitate active travel could have benefits that spill over across the entire year rather than being limited to a particular season. Educational campaigns with strategies for making the trip fun and ensuring that the appropriate clothing choices are made are also warranted in complementing built environment modifications.

  18. Farm service agency employee intentions to use weather and climate data in professional services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel E. Schattman; Gabrielle Roesch-McNally; Sarah Wiener; Meredith T. Niles; David Y. Hollinger

    2018-01-01

    Agricultural service providers often work closely with producers, and are well positioned to include weather and climate change information in the services they provide. By doing so, they can help producers reduce risks due to climate variability and change. A national survey of United States Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency (FSA) field staff (n...

  19. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    L. I. Dorman; L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence ...

  20. The physics of Martian weather and climate: a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Read, P L; Mulholland, D P; Lewis, S R

    2015-01-01

    The planet Mars hosts an atmosphere that is perhaps the closest in terms of its meteorology and climate to that of the Earth. But Mars differs from Earth in its greater distance from the Sun, its smaller size, its lack of liquid oceans and its thinner atmosphere, composed mainly of CO 2 . These factors give Mars a rather different climate to that of the Earth. In this article we review various aspects of the martian climate system from a physicist’s viewpoint, focusing on the processes that control the martian environment and comparing these with corresponding processes on Earth. These include the radiative and thermodynamical processes that determine the surface temperature and vertical structure of the atmosphere, the fluid dynamics of its atmospheric motions, and the key cycles of mineral dust and volatile transport. In many ways, the climate of Mars is as complicated and diverse as that of the Earth, with complex nonlinear feedbacks that affect its response to variations in external forcing. Recent work has shown that the martian climate is anything but static, but is almost certainly in a continual state of transient response to slowly varying insolation associated with cyclic variations in its orbit and rotation. We conclude with a discussion of the physical processes underlying these long- term climate variations on Mars, and an overview of some of the most intriguing outstanding problems that should be a focus for future observational and theoretical studies. (review)

  1. High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porada, Philipp; Lenton, Tim; Pohl, Alexandre; Weber, Bettina; Mander, Luke; Donnadieu, Yannick; Beer, Christian; Pöschl, Ulrich; Kleidon, Axel

    2017-04-01

    Early non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician may have strongly increased chemical weathering rates of surface rocks at the global scale. This could have led to a drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and, consequently, a decrease in global temperature and an interval of glaciations. Under current climatic conditions, usually field or laboratory experiments are used to quantify enhancement of chemical weathering rates by non-vascular vegetation. However, these experiments are constrained to a small spatial scale and a limited number of species. This complicates the extrapolation to the global scale, even more so for the geological past, where physiological properties of non-vascular vegetation may have differed from current species. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate large-scale chemical weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. For this purpose, we use a process-based model of lichens and bryophytes, since these organisms are probably the closest living analogue to Late Ordovician vegetation. The model explicitly represents multiple physiological strategies, which enables the simulated vegetation to adapt to Ordovician climatic conditions. We estimate productivity of Ordovician vegetation with the model, and relate it to chemical weathering by assuming that the organisms dissolve rocks to extract phosphorus for the production of new biomass. Thereby we account for limits on weathering due to reduced supply of unweathered rock material in shallow regions, as well as decreased transport capacity of runoff for dissolved weathered material in dry areas. We simulate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 km3 (rock) per year, which we define as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. Our estimate is around 3 times larger than today's global chemical weathering flux. Furthermore, chemical weathering rates simulated by our model are highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration, which implies

  2. Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Alpert

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems. Potential relations between EM rainfall extremes to tropical systems, e.g. El Niño, Indian Monsoon and hurricanes, are demonstrated. For a specific event, high resolution modelling of the severe flood on 3-5 December 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the EM climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the Indian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors like the Red-Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust are also likely to contribute to the EM climate variability.

  3. Weather, climate and the future : B.C.'s plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-12-01

    This plan lays the groundwork for a comprehensive long-term response to climate change in British Columbia (BC). Three key objectives were identified: decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reducing vulnerability to future climate change; contributing to BC's economic revitalization by improving energy efficiency and supporting development of market opportunities; and ensuring BC's interests are protected in the implementation of national climate policies. A summary of actions was provided in the areas of sustainable energy production and sustainable forest management. Outlines of the government's plans to provide support to the BC Agriculture Council were also provided along with plans concerning infrastructure and the ways in which climate change will be incorporated into transportation planning and investment strategies. A list of government leadership and outreach actions was given, as well as details of water management plans. It was concluded that further policy developments will be required in incremental forest sinks, energy efficiency, bioenergy and fuel cell technology. Improved urban development and performance targets are necessary for public buildings. It was noted that regulatory changes to provide further incentives in these areas are necessary. Partnerships between the private sector, federal, local and regional governments will be essential for the future success of this plan. tabs., figs

  4. Solar origins of space weather and space climate

    CERN Document Server

    Komm, Rudolf; Pevtsov, Alexei; Leibacher, John

    2014-01-01

    This topical issue is based on the presentations given at the 26th National Solar Observatory (NSO) Summer Workshop held at the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak, New Mexico, USA from 30 April to 4 May 2012. This unique forum brought together experts in different areas of solar and space physics to help in developing a full picture of the origin of solar phenomena that affect Earth’s technological systems.  The articles include theory, model, and observation research on the origin of the solar activity and its cycle, as well as a discussion on how to incorporate the research into space-weather forecasting tools.  This volume is aimed at graduate students and researchers active in solar physics and space science.  Previously published in Solar Physics, Vol. 289/2, 2014.

  5. Managing weather and climate risks to agriculture in North America, Central America and the Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harlan D. Shannon

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, numerous weather- and climate-related natural disasters have impacted North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, repeatedly demonstrating how vulnerable local agriculture is to extreme episodic events. Given this recent history, and expectations that the frequency and intensity of some episodic events will increase with climate change, it is becoming increasingly important for farmers to proactively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture to protect their livelihoods. Some farmers in this region already apply various strategies to help reduce weather and climate risks and uncertainties, including farming in multiple locations, diversifying crops and varieties, seeking alternative sources of income, and purchasing crop insurance. Such efforts often help farmers maintain a more stable income while also protecting and preserving the productivity of the land. Other farmers, however, have failed to implement basic risk management strategies despite the clear benefits. Reasons for these failures can be attributed to inadequate farmer education and training, a lack of tools to help facilitate the practical application of risk management concepts, and poor communications between the agrometeorological and farming communities. The agrometeorological community can help overcome these obstacles by building upon existing efforts that have successfully educated farmers about weather and climate risks to agriculture and have equipped farmers with the data, tools, and applications necessary to manage these risks. Farmer input is critical to preparing effective educational and training materials and developing user-friendly risk management tools. The agrometeorological community should solicit input from farmers regularly to ensure that farmers are obtaining the information necessary to effectively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture.

  6. Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

    2017-12-05

    This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

  7. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  8. Effects of Climate on Co-evolution of Weathering Profiles and Hillscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, R. S.; Rajaram, H.; Anderson, S. P.

    2017-12-01

    Considerable debate revolves around the relative importance of rock type, tectonics, and climate in creating the architecture of the critical zone. It has recently been proposed that differences in the depths and patterns of weathering between landscapes in Colorado's Front Range and South Carolina's piedmont can be attributed to the state of stress in the rock imposed by the magnitude and orientation the regional stresses with respect to the ridgelines (St. Claire et al., 2016). We argue for the importance of the climate, and in particular, in temperate regions, the amount of recharge. We employ numerical models of hillslope evolution between bounding erosional channels, in which the degree of rock weathering governs the rate of transformation of rock to soil. As the water table drapes between the stream channels, fresh rock is brought into the weathering zone at a rate governed by the rate of incision of the channels. We track the chemical weathering of rock, represented by alteration of feldspar to clays, which in turn requires calculation of the concentration of reactive species in the water along hydrologic flow paths. We present results from analytic solutions to the flow field in which travel times can be efficiently assessed. Below the water table, flow paths are hyperbolic, taking on considerable lateral components as they veer toward the bounding channels that serve as drains to the hillslope. We find that if water is far from equilibrium with respect to weatherable minerals at the water table, as occurs in wet, slowly-eroding landscapes, deep weathering can occur well below the water table to levels approximating the base of the bounding channels. In dry climates, on the other hand, the weathering zone is limited to a shallow surface - parallel layer. These models capture the essence of the observed differences in depth to fresh rock in both wet and dry climates without appeal to the state of stress in the rock.

  9. Understanding, representing and communicating earth system processes in weather and climate within CNRCWP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek; de Elia, Ramon; Déry, Stephen; Duguay, Claude; Gachon, Philippe; Gyakum, John; Laprise, René; Marshall, Shawn; Monahan, Adam; Scinocca, John; Thériault, Julie; Verseghy, Diana; Zwiers, Francis

    2017-04-01

    The Canadian Network for Regional Climate and Weather Processes (CNRCWP) provides significant advances and innovative research towards the ultimate goal of reducing uncertainty in numerical weather prediction and climate projections for Canada's Northern and Arctic regions. This talk will provide an overview of the Network and selected results related to the assessment of the added value of high-resolution modelling that has helped fill critical knowledge gaps in understanding the dynamics of extreme temperature and precipitation events and the complex land-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks in Canada's northern and Arctic regions. In addition, targeted developments in the Canadian regional climate model, that facilitate direct application of model outputs in impact and adaptation studies, particularly those related to the water, energy and infrastructure sectors will also be discussed. The close collaboration between the Network and its partners and end users contributed significantly to this effort.

  10. Sun as a maker of weather and climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willett, H C

    1976-01-01

    The theory that an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the combustion of fossil fuels could best explain the warming trend observed from 1920 to 1940 has long stimulated popular concern and debate. An alternative explanation proposing that variations in solar activity best fit recent observed climatic fluctuations, and offering a very sketchy physical hypothesis is presented. Patterns of atmospheric circulation on earth reflect cyclic changes in the sun. By studying solar cycles, a ''little ice age'' bringing extremes of cold is predicted by the year 2200. However, the next age of widespread glaciation is still too distant to be seen.

  11. Global warming and ocean acidification through halted weathering feedback during the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Ploeg, R.; Selby, D. S.; Cramwinckel, M.; Bohaty, S. M.; Sluijs, A.; Middelburg, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) represents a 500 kyr period of global warming 40 million years ago associated with a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but its cause remains enigmatic. Moreover, on the timescale of the MECO, an increase in silicate weathering rates on the continents is expected to balance carbon input and restore the alkalinity of the oceans, but this is in sharp disagreement with observations of extensive carbonate dissolution. Here we show, based on osmium isotope ratios of marine sediments from three different sites, that CO2 rise and warming did not lead to enhanced continental weathering during the MECO, in contrast to expectations from carbon cycle theory. Remarkably, a minor shift to lower, more unradiogenic osmium isotope ratios rather indicates an episode of increased volcanism or reduced continental weathering. This disproves silicate weathering as a geologically constant feedback to CO2 variations. Rather, we suggest that global Early and Middle Eocene warmth diminished the weatherability of continental rocks, ultimately leading to CO2 accumulation during the MECO, and show the plausibility of this scenario using carbon cycle modeling simulations. We surmise a dynamic weathering feedback might explain multiple enigmatic phases of coupled climate and carbon cycle change in the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

  12. Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P

    2013-09-01

    Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.

  13. Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

    2017-04-01

    Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

  14. A Coupled Surface Nudging Scheme for use in Retrospective Weather and Climate Simulations for Environmental Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    A surface analysis nudging scheme coupling atmospheric and land surface thermodynamic parameters has been implemented into WRF v3.8 (latest version) for use with retrospective weather and climate simulations, as well as for applications in air quality, hydrology, and ecosystem mo...

  15. Constraining climate sensitivity and continental versus seafloor weathering using an inverse geological carbon cycle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Catling, David C

    2017-05-22

    The relative influences of tectonics, continental weathering and seafloor weathering in controlling the geological carbon cycle are unknown. Here we develop a new carbon cycle model that explicitly captures the kinetics of seafloor weathering to investigate carbon fluxes and the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 and ocean pH since 100 Myr ago. We compare model outputs to proxy data, and rigorously constrain model parameters using Bayesian inverse methods. Assuming our forward model is an accurate representation of the carbon cycle, to fit proxies the temperature dependence of continental weathering must be weaker than commonly assumed. We find that 15-31 °C (1σ) surface warming is required to double the continental weathering flux, versus 3-10 °C in previous work. In addition, continental weatherability has increased 1.7-3.3 times since 100 Myr ago, demanding explanation by uplift and sea-level changes. The average Earth system climate sensitivity is  K (1σ) per CO 2 doubling, which is notably higher than fast-feedback estimates. These conclusions are robust to assumptions about outgassing, modern fluxes and seafloor weathering kinetics.

  16. The CAMI Project - Weather and Climate Services for Caribbean Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotman, Adrian; Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Food security is major focus of Caribbean governments, with production being of particular concern. For the past three decades, Caribbean agriculture has been declining in relative importance, both in terms of its contribution to GDP and its share of the labour force. One of the problems Caribbean agriculture faces is the destructive impacts from weather and climate extremes. These include flood, drought, extreme temperatures, and strong winds from tropical cyclones. Other potential disasters, such as from pests and diseases attacks, are also weather and climate driven. These make weather and climate information critically important to decision-making in agriculture in the Caribbean region. In an effort to help reduce weather and climate related risks to the food security sector, The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, along with its partners the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and ten National Meteorological Services from within the Caribbean Community launched and implemented the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI). From 2010 to 2013, CAMI set out to provide relevant information to farmers, and the industry in general, for decision and policy making. The project is funded by the European Union through the Science and Technology Programme of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of Countries' (ACP). The overarching objective of CAMI was to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information, using an integrated and coordinated approach. Currently, this is done through (i) provision of relevant climate information appropriately disseminated, (ii) predictions on seasonal rainfall and temperature, (iii) support for improved irrigation management, (iv) the development of strategically selected weather-driven pest and disease models, (v) use of crop simulation models

  17. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

  18. Introduction to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John E. Hay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This Special Issue documents not only the more recent progress made in detecting and attributing changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the observational record, but also in projecting changes in such extremes at regional and local scales. It also deals with the impacts and other consequences and implications of both the historic and anticipated changes in extreme weather and climate events. Impact assessments using both dynamical downscaling and statistical modelling for two tropical cyclones are reported, as well as for storm surge and extreme wave changes. The Special Issue concludes with a consideration of some policy implications and practical applications arising from our relatively robust understanding of how the build up of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere affects weather and climate extremes.

  19. Impacts of Severe Weather, Climate Zone, and Energy Factors on Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering Management Christopher L. Teke, Major, USAF Major...the science behind severe weather occurrences and climate zone. Chapter 3 further details the methodology used in the analysis and sets the stage... actuarial estimates and should be thought of as insurance premiums, and ought to remain a budgeted cost if a base stays open. In contrast, if a base is

  20. The effect of different weather data sets and their resolution on climate-based daylight modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, A; Svendsen, Svend; Nielsen, Toke Rammer

    2013-01-01

    Climate-based daylight modelling is based on the available weather data, which means that the weather data used as input to the daylight simulations are of great importance. In this paper, the effect on the outcome of the daylight simulations of using one weather data file rather than another...

  1. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B

  2. Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

    2013-12-01

    Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching

  3. Monitoring the impacts of weather and climate extremes on global agricultural production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Johansson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB, under the direction of the Department of Agriculture's Office of the Chief Economist, employs a staff of agricultural meteorologists whose mission is to monitor and assess the impacts of weather and climate on crops in key growing areas throughout the world. The results of those analyses contribute to the deliberations conducted by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICEC led by analysts at the World Agricultural Outlook Board. The results of those deliberations can be found in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE report, one of the designated Principle Federal Economic Indicators issued monthly by the Federal Government (White House (Office of Management and Budget, 2015. The process used to develop those estimates each month requires the integration of an assessment of the current climatic conditions with knowledge of the agricultural practices and market conditions of a particular country. Weather and climate data are used in conjunction with information on when and where crops are planted, production practices including irrigation, which varieties are best suited for that particular climate, and what naturally occurring hazards can be expected in any given year. Being able to closely compare current conditions to historic observations of weather and realized output on a fine scale, temporally and geographically, is a key component of the international estimates in the WASDE process.

  4. Fantasy and Reality in the History of Weather and Climate Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, J. R.

    2005-12-01

    This presentation examines the history of large-scale weather and climate engineering since 1840, with special reference to imaginative and speculative literature and with special relevance to ethical and policy issues. Ultimate control of the weather and climate embodies both our wildest fantasies and our greatest fears. Fantasy often informs reality (and vice-versa). NASA managers know this well, as do Trekkies. The best science fiction authors typically build from the current state of a field to construct futuristic scenarios that reveal and explore the human condition. Scientists as well often venture into flights of fancy. Though not widely documented, the fantasy-reality axis is also a prominent aspect of the history of the geosciences. James Espy's proposal in the 1840s to enhance precipitation by lighting huge fires, thus stimulating convective updrafts, preceded the widespread charlatanism of the rain-makers, or so-called "pluviculturalists," in the western U.S. One hundred years later, promising discoveries in "cloud seeding" by Irving Langmuir and his associates at the General Electric Corporation rapidly devolved into unsupportable proposals and questionable practices by military and commercial rain-makers seeking to control the weather. During the Cold War, Soviet engineers also promoted a chilling vision (to Westerners) of global climate control. Recently, rather immodest proposals to "fix" a climate system perceived to be out of control have received wide circulation. In 2003 the U.S. Pentagon released a report recommending that the government should "explore geo-engineering options that control the climate." In 2004 a symposium in Cambridge, England set out to "identify, debate, and evaluate" possible, but highly controversial options for the design and construction of engineering projects for the management and mitigation of global climate change. This talk will locate the history of weather and climate modification within a long tradition of

  5. Influence of cirrus clouds on weather and climate processes A global perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, K.-N.

    1986-01-01

    Current understanding and knowledge of the composition and structure of cirrus clouds are reviewed and documented in this paper. In addition, the radiative properties of cirrus clouds as they relate to weather and climate processes are described in detail. To place the relevance and importance of cirrus composition, structure and radiative properties into a global perspective, pertinent results derived from simulation experiments utilizing models with varying degrees of complexity are presented; these have been carried out for the investigation of the influence of cirrus clouds on the thermodynamics and dynamics of the atmosphere. In light of these reviews, suggestions are outlined for cirrus-radiation research activities aimed toward the development and improvement of weather and climate models for a physical understanding of cause and effect relationships and for prediction purposes.

  6. Weather, climate, and resource Information should meet the needs of Sahelian pastoralists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Laura Vang; Mertz, Ole; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2014-01-01

    There has been an increasing focus on providing better weather, climate, and resource information for decision making in drylands. This study explores what kind of information pastoralists in the Sahel received in 2013 and how they responded to this information. Moreover, the study assesses whether...... the disseminated information corresponds to the actual needs of pastoralists. The overall objective is thus to identify the outcome of providing weather, climate, and resource information to pastoralists and thereby to explore whether and how various products may guide their mobility and decision-making patterns....... Such information could be used to adjust the purchase of supplementary fodder, to make qualified choices on transhumance destinations, and to make changes in herd composition. As pastoralists primarily acquire this information by calling friends and family in nearby areas, the results point to a strong disconnect...

  7. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  8. Preparing Middle School Teachers to Use Science Models Effectively when Teaching about Weather and Climate Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarker, M. B.; Stanier, C. O.; Forbes, C.; Park, S.

    2012-12-01

    According to the National Science Education Standards (NSES), teachers are encouraged to use science models in the classroom as a way to aid in the understanding of the nature of the scientific process. This is of particular importance to the atmospheric science community because climate and weather models are very important when it comes to understanding current and future behaviors of our atmosphere. Although familiar with weather forecasts on television and the Internet, most people do not understand the process of using computer models to generate weather and climate forecasts. As a result, the public often misunderstands claims scientists make about their daily weather as well as the state of climate change. Therefore, it makes sense that recent research in science education indicates that scientific models and modeling should be a topic covered in K-12 classrooms as part of a comprehensive science curriculum. The purpose of this research study is to describe how three middle school teachers use science models to teach about topics in climate and weather, as well as the challenges they face incorporating models effectively into the classroom. Participants in this study took part in a week long professional development designed to orient them towards appropriate use of science models for a unit on weather, climate, and energy concepts. The course design was based on empirically tested features of effective professional development for science teachers and was aimed at teaching content to the teachers while simultaneously orienting them towards effective use of science models in the classroom in a way that both aids in learning about the content knowledge as well as how models are used in scientific inquiry. Results indicate that teachers perceive models to be physical representations that can be used as evidence to convince students that the teacher's conception of the concept is correct. Additionally, teachers tended to use them as ways to explain an idea to

  9. Impact of climate and weather on the activities of the building and construction industry in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Villiers, GDT

    1986-01-01

    Full Text Available This study represents a quantitative survey of the impact of the climate and weather on the activities of the building and construction industry in South Africa. Seasonal productivity problems, the seasonal provision of special facilities...

  10. Climate change or variable weather: Rethinking Danish homeowners' perceptions of floods and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we under...

  11. Climate and weather of the Sun-Earth system (CAWSES) highlights from a priority program

    CERN Document Server

    Lübken, Franz-Josef

    2012-01-01

    CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) is the most important scientific program of SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). CAWSES has triggered a scientific priority program within the German Research Foundation for a period of 6 years. Approximately 30 scientific institutes and 120 scientists were involved in Germany with strong links to international partners. The priority program focuses on solar influence on climate, atmospheric coupling processes, and space climatology. This book summarizes the most important results from this program covering some impor

  12. Web processing service for climate impact and extreme weather event analyses. Flyingpigeon (Version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempelmann, Nils; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Brockmann, Patrick; Falk, Wolfgang; Hoffmann, Jörg; Kindermann, Stephan; Koziol, Ben; Nangini, Cathy; Radanovics, Sabine; Vautard, Robert; Yiou, Pascal

    2018-01-01

    Analyses of extreme weather events and their impacts often requires big data processing of ensembles of climate model simulations. Researchers generally proceed by downloading the data from the providers and processing the data files ;at home; with their own analysis processes. However, the growing amount of available climate model and observation data makes this procedure quite awkward. In addition, data processing knowledge is kept local, instead of being consolidated into a common resource of reusable code. These drawbacks can be mitigated by using a web processing service (WPS). A WPS hosts services such as data analysis processes that are accessible over the web, and can be installed close to the data archives. We developed a WPS named 'flyingpigeon' that communicates over an HTTP network protocol based on standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), to be used by climatologists and impact modelers as a tool for analyzing large datasets remotely. Here, we present the current processes we developed in flyingpigeon relating to commonly-used processes (preprocessing steps, spatial subsets at continent, country or region level, and climate indices) as well as methods for specific climate data analysis (weather regimes, analogues of circulation, segetal flora distribution, and species distribution models). We also developed a novel, browser-based interactive data visualization for circulation analogues, illustrating the flexibility of WPS in designing custom outputs. Bringing the software to the data instead of transferring the data to the code is becoming increasingly necessary, especially with the upcoming massive climate datasets.

  13. Best Practices in Weathering Climate Risks: Advancing Corporate and Community Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Winkelman, S.

    2012-12-01

    As the annual costs of severe weather events in the US grow into the billions of dollars, companies and communities are examining how best to plan ahead to protect their assets and bolster their bottom line. The Center for Clean Air Policy's Weathering Climate Risks program aims to help cities and companies enhance resilience to the economic impacts of severe weather and a changing climate. This presentation will highlight three communication techniques aimed at different types of audiences such as businesses, policymakers, the media, and society. First, we find that although planning for natural hazards now saves money later, stakeholders must fi¬nd their own self-interest if they are going to engage in a solution. Thus we research best practices and hold informational, off-the-record interviews to better understand the different stakeholders' perspectives, key concerns, and issues surrounding adaptation, resilience, and/or hazard mitigation. Diverse stakeholders find it attractive when a solution has multiple co-benefits such as climate resilience, greenhouse gas reduction, reduced costs, and social benefits. Second, we use off-the-record dialogues emphasizing candid public-private discussion to promote collaborative problem solving. Our high-level workshops typically consist of 30-40 scientists, companies, communities, and policymakers. We begin with presenting background material, such as geographic information systems (GIS) maps. Then we move to informal conservation. Topics include ideas such as "Ask the Climate Question": How will infrastructure, land development, and investment decisions affect GHG emissions and resilience to climate change impacts? We find these dialogues help stakeholders share their perspectives and advance public-private collaboration on climate resilience to protect critical urban infrastructure, ensure business continuity, and increase extreme weather resilience. Third, we find that communication to the general public must capture

  14. Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review

    OpenAIRE

    Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Armstrong, Ben; Fleming, Lora E.; Elson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Nichols, Gordon L.

    2017-01-01

    Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critica...

  15. Mechanical weathering and rock erosion by climate-dependent subcritical cracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eppes, Martha-Cary; Keanini, Russell

    2017-06-01

    This work constructs a fracture mechanics framework for conceptualizing mechanical rock breakdown and consequent regolith production and erosion on the surface of Earth and other terrestrial bodies. Here our analysis of fracture mechanics literature explicitly establishes for the first time that all mechanical weathering in most rock types likely progresses by climate-dependent subcritical cracking under virtually all Earth surface and near-surface environmental conditions. We substantiate and quantify this finding through development of physically based subcritical cracking and rock erosion models founded in well-vetted fracture mechanics and mechanical weathering, theory, and observation. The models show that subcritical cracking can culminate in significant rock fracture and erosion under commonly experienced environmental stress magnitudes that are significantly lower than rock critical strength. Our calculations also indicate that climate strongly influences subcritical cracking—and thus rock weathering rates—irrespective of the source of the stress (e.g., freezing, thermal cycling, and unloading). The climate dependence of subcritical cracking rates is due to the chemophysical processes acting to break bonds at crack tips experiencing these low stresses. We find that for any stress or combination of stresses lower than a rock's critical strength, linear increases in humidity lead to exponential acceleration of subcritical cracking and associated rock erosion. Our modeling also shows that these rates are sensitive to numerous other environment, rock, and mineral properties that are currently not well characterized. We propose that confining pressure from overlying soil or rock may serve to suppress subcritical cracking in near-surface environments. These results are applicable to all weathering processes.

  16. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

  17. Catchment chemostasis revisited: water quality responds differently to variations in weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godsey, Sarah; Kirchner, James

    2017-04-01

    Solute concentrations in streamflow typically vary systematically with stream discharge, and the resulting concentration-discharge relationships are important signatures of catchment (bio)geochemical processes. Solutes derived from mineral weathering often exhibit decreasing concentrations with increasing flows, suggesting dilution of a kinetically limited weathering flux by a variable flux of water. However, Godsey et al. (2009) showed that concentration-discharge relationships of weathering-derived solutes in 59 headwater catchments were much flatter than this simple dilution model would predict. Instead, their analysis showed that these catchments behaved almost like chemostats, with rates of solute production and/or mobilization that were nearly proportional to water fluxes, on both event and inter-annual time scales. Here we re-examine these findings using data from roughly 1000 catchments, ranging from ˜10 to >1,000,000 km2 in drainage area, and spanning a wide range of lithologic and climatic settings. Concentration-discharge relationships among this much larger set of much larger catchments are broadly consistent with the chemostatic behavior described by Godsey et al. (2009). Among these same catchments, however, site-to-site variations in mean concentrations are strongly (negatively) correlated with long-term average precipitation and discharge, suggesting strong dilution of stream concentrations under long-term leaching of the critical zone. The picture that emerges is one in which, on event and inter-annual time scales, stream solute concentrations are chemostatically buffered by groundwater storage and fast chemical reactions (such as ion exchange), but on much longer time scales, the catchment's chemostatic "set point" is determined by climatically driven critical zone evolution. Examples illustrating the different influences of (short-term) weather and (long-term) climate on water quality will be presented, and their implications will be discussed

  18. RNCEP: global weather and climate data at your fingertips

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemp, M.U.; van Loon, E.E.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.; Bouten, W.

    2012-01-01

    Atmospheric conditions strongly influence ecological systems, and tools that simplify the access and processing of atmospheric data can greatly facilitate ecological research. We have developed RNCEP, a package of functions in the open-source R language, to access, organise and visualise freely

  19. National Intelligence Survey. Spain. Section 23. Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    1963-07-01

    on to successor organiza- tions. In 1934 the meteorological services were organized as the Servicio Meteorolögico Nacional (S.M.N.). Spain became a...service’s communications system for collecting data relies heavily on tele- phone, telegraph, and CW-radio broadcasts. A micro -wave radio teletype

  20. Teaching Introductory Weather and Climate Using Popular Movies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yow, Donald M.

    2014-01-01

    Addressing the need for an introductory atmospheric science course for nonscience majors, a course was developed that provides a general understanding of atmospheric processes by examining how meteorological events are portrayed in movies. The course also uses films to study the causes of, impacts associated with, and potential adaptations to…

  1. The Fluvial Geochemistry of the Rivers of Eastern Siberia and Implications for the Effect of Climate on Weathering

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Huh, Youngsook

    1998-01-01

    The dependence of weathering on climate (temperature and precipitation) forms the core of a negative feedback proposed to have maintained the Earth's atmospheric CO2 within habitable limits for most of...

  2. Transport of Aerosols: Regional and Global Implications for Climate, Weather, and Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Yu, Hongbin; Bian, Huisheng; Remer, Lorraine; Kahn, Ralph

    2008-01-01

    Long-range transport of atmospheric aerosols can have a significant impact on global climate, regional weather, and local air quality. In this study, we use a global model GOCART together with satellite data and ground-based measurements to assess the emission and transport of pollution, dust, biomass burning, and volcanic aerosols and their implications. In particular, we will show the impact of emissions and long-range transport of aerosols from major pollution and dust source regions to (1) the surface air quality, (2) the atmospheric heating rates, and (3) surface radiation change near the source and downwind regions.

  3. Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

  4. Soils and climate: redness and weathering as indicators of mean annual precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucke, Bernhard

    2016-04-01

    Paleosols can be used as archives of past changes of climate and landscapes, but their interpretation has to be based on modern analogies such as Budyko's law of soil zonality. These can be very useful if the respective processes of soil formation are sufficiently well understood. However, some soils such as the Terra Rossa or Red Mediterranean Soils, that are widespread at the fringes of the steppes and deserts, are still disputed with regard to their genesis and environmental significance. In particular, there is no agreement whether they resemble current environmental conditions, or are inherited from climates or sediments of the past. In this context, a remarkable change of the color of surface soils can be observed when driving from the city of Irbid in Jordan towards the east. Soil color apparently changes slowly, but steadily from dark red to yellow colors. However, attempting to express these color changes in numerical form is challenging, and it seemed questionable whether color is indeed connected with soil weathering intensity, or an optical illusion. However, a systematic comparison of different approaches of calculating soil redness found that the CIELAB-color system is suited for numerical expressions of soil redness and performs better than the Munsell charts. Along the investigated transect in Jordan, soil color seems strongly connected with weathering intensity, since various weathering indicators point to a steady increase of soil development with moisture. This suggests that such indices can well be used in semi-arid areas of 250-600 mm of mean annual precipitation. A very strong correlation of magnetic enhancement and rainfall indicates that the investigated soils are forming in equilibrium with current climatic conditions, and regressions based on this gradient might be suited for estimating paleorainfalls recorded by buried paelosols. It seems therefore that surface Terra Rossa soils in Jordan can be in equilibrium with current climate

  5. Beyond Climate and Weather Science: Expanding the Forecasting Family to Serve Societal Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, E. J.

    2009-05-01

    The ability to "anticipate" the future is what makes information from the Earth sciences valuable to society - whether it is the prediction of severe weather or the future availability of water resources in response to climate change. An improved ability to anticipate or forecast has the potential to serve society by simultaneously improving our ability to (1) promote economic vitality, (2) enable environmental stewardship, (3) protect life and property, as well as (4) improve our fundamental knowledge of the earth system. The potential is enormous, yet many appear ready to move quickly toward specific mitigation and adaptation strategies assuming that the science is settled. Five important weakness must be addressed first: (1) the formation of a true "climate services" function and capability, (2) the deliberate investment in expanding the family of forecasting elements to incorporate a broader array of environmental factors and impacts, (3) the investment in the sciences that connect climate to society, (4) a deliberate focus on the problems associated with scale, in particular the difference between the scale of predictive models and the scale associated with societal decisions, and (5) the evolution from climate services and model predictions to the equivalent of "environmental intelligence centers." The objective is to bring the discipline of forecasting to a broader array of environmental challenges. Assessments of the potential impacts of global climate change on societal sectors such as water, human health, and agriculture provide good examples of this challenge. We have the potential to move from a largely reactive mode in addressing adverse health outcomes, for example, to one in which the ties between climate, land cover, infectious disease vectors, and human health are used to forecast and predict adverse human health conditions. The potential exists for a revolution in forecasting, that entrains a much broader set of societal needs and solutions. The

  6. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

    2013-12-01

    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  7. Climate-change effects on soils: Accelerated weathering, soil carbon and elemental cycling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qafoku, Nikolla

    2015-04-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2, and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils are the subject of active current investigations, with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries, identifies key research needs, and highlights opportunities offered by the climate-change effects on soils.

  8. Influences of extreme weather, climate and pesticide use on invertebrates in cereal fields over 42 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewald, Julie A; Wheatley, Christopher J; Aebischer, Nicholas J; Moreby, Stephen J; Duffield, Simon J; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Morecroft, Michael B

    2015-11-01

    Cereal fields are central to balancing food production and environmental health in the face of climate change. Within them, invertebrates provide key ecosystem services. Using 42 years of monitoring data collected in southern England, we investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long-term changes in temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance. Of the 26 invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events. Average abundance increased in hot/dry years and decreased in cold/wet years for Araneae, Cicadellidae, adult Heteroptera, Thysanoptera, Braconidae, Enicmus and Lathridiidae. The average abundance of Delphacidae, Cryptophagidae and Mycetophilidae increased in both hot/dry and cold/wet years relative to other years. The abundance of all 10 groups usually returned to their long-term trend within a year after the extreme event. For five of them, sensitivity to cold/wet events was lowest (translating into higher abundances) at locations with a westerly aspect. Some long-term trends in invertebrate abundance correlated with temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect them. However, pesticide use was more important in explaining the trends, suggesting that reduced pesticide use would mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Weather influences feed intake and feed efficiency in a temperate climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Davina L; Wall, Eileen

    2017-03-01

    A key goal for livestock science is to ensure that food production meets the needs of an increasing global population. Climate change may heighten this challenge through increases in mean temperatures and in the intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of extreme weather events, such as heat waves. Under high ambient temperatures, livestock are expected to decrease dry matter intake (DMI) to reduce their metabolic heat production. High yielding dairy cows require high DMI to support their levels of milk production, but this may increase susceptibility to heat stress. Here, we tested how feed intake and the rate of converting dry matter to milk (feed efficiency, FE) vary in response to natural fluctuations in weather conditions in a housed experimental herd of lactating Holstein Friesians in the United Kingdom. Cows belonged to 2 lines: those selected for high genetic merit for milk traits (select) and those at the UK average (control). We predicted that (1) feed intake and FE would vary with an index of temperature and humidity (THI), wind speed, and the number of hours of sunshine, and that (2) the effects of (1) would depend on the cows' genetic merit. Animals received a mixed ration, available ad libitum, from automatic feed measurement gates. Using >73,000 daily feed intake and FE records from 328 cows over 8 yr, we found that select cows produced more fat- and protein-corrected milk, and had higher DMI and FE than controls. Cows of both lines decreased DMI and fat- and protein-corrected milk but, importantly, increased FE as THI increased. This suggests that improvements in the efficiency of converting feed to milk may partially offset the costs of reduced milk yield owing to a warmer climate, at least under conditions of mild heat stress. The rate of increase in FE with THI was steeper in select cows than in controls, which raises the possibility that select cows use more effective coping tactics. This is, to our knowledge, the first longitudinal study

  10. Insect community responses to climate and weather across elevation gradients in the Sagebrush Steppe, eastern Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S.; Rohde, Ashley T.

    2016-11-17

    Executive SummaryIn this study, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the use of insects as bioindicators of climate change in sagebrush steppe shrublands and grasslands in the Upper Columbia Basin. The research was conducted in the Stinkingwater and Pueblo mountain ranges in eastern Oregon on lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management.We used a “space-for-time” sampling design that related insect communities to climate and weather along elevation gradients. We analyzed our insect dataset at three levels of organization: (1) whole-community, (2) feeding guilds (detritivores, herbivores, nectarivores, parasites, and predators), and (3) orders within nectarivores (i.e., pollinators). We captured 59,517 insects from 176 families and 10 orders at the Pueblo Mountains study area and 112,305 insects from 185 families and 11 orders at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area in 2012 and 2013. Of all the individuals captured at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area, 77,688 were from the family Cecidomyiidae (Diptera, gall gnats).We found that the composition of insect communities was associated with variability in long-term (30-yr) temperature and interannual fluctuations in temperature. We found that captures of certain fly, bee, moth, and butterfly pollinators were more strongly associated with some climate and vegetation variables than others. We found that timing of emergence, as measured by first detection of families, was associated with elevation. When analyzed by feeding guilds, we found that all guilds emerged later at high elevations except for detritivores, which emerged earlier at high elevations. The abundance of most taxa varied through time, mostly in response to temperature and precipitation. Of the pollinators, bees (particularly, Halictidae and Megachilidae) peaked in abundance in late June and early July, whereas butterflies and moths peaked in August. Flies peaked in abundance in July.Overall, our interpretation of these patterns is that

  11. Evaluation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) for Weather and Climate using the Multi-testbed approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, B.; Lee, T.; Buban, M.; Dumas, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Evaluation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) for Weather and Climate using the Multi-testbed approachC. Bruce Baker1, Ed Dumas1,2, Temple Lee1,2, Michael Buban1,21NOAA ARL, Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division, Oak Ridge, TN2Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, TN The development of a small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) testbeds that can be used to validate, integrate, calibrate and evaluate new technology and sensors for routine boundary layer research, validation of operational weather models, improvement of model parameterizations, and recording observations within high-impact storms is important for understanding the importance and impact of using sUAS's routinely as a new observing platform. The goal of the multi-testbed approach is to build a robust set of protocols to assess the cost and operational feasibility of unmanned observations for routine applications using various combinations of sUAS aircraft and sensors in different locations and field experiments. All of these observational testbeds serve different community needs, but they also use a diverse suite of methodologies for calibration and evaluation of different sensors and platforms for severe weather and boundary layer research. The primary focus will be to evaluate meteorological sensor payloads to measure thermodynamic parameters and define surface characteristics with visible, IR, and multi-spectral cameras. This evaluation will lead to recommendations for sensor payloads for VTOL and fixed-wing sUAS.

  12. Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification - Supplementary Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Lyla L.; Quirk, Joe; Thorley, Rachel M. S.; Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James; Ridgwell, Andy; Lomas, Mark R.; Banwart, Steve A.; Beerling, David J.

    2015-01-01

    Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp. -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

  13. SCOSTEP: Understanding the Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

    2011-01-01

    The international solar-terrestrial physics community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by the Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP). The CAWSES program is the current major scientific program of SCOSTEP that will continue until the end of the year 2013. The CAWSES program has brought scientists from all over the world together to tackle the scientific issues behind the Sun-Earth connected system and explore ways of helping the human society. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and other SCOSTEP activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations, capacity building, and public outreach.

  14. Climate - Change - Alps. Tourism and regional planning in weather load. Proceedings; Klima - Wandel - Alpen. Tourismus und Raumplanung im Wetterstress. Tagungsband

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    Within the international annual conference ''Climate-Change-Alps Tourism and regional planning under weather load'' between 18th and 20th May, 2006, in Bad Hindelang (federal Republic of Germany) lectures were held to the following topics: (a) CIPRA resolution; (b) Future in the Alps - Distribution of knowledge, networking of people; (c) Climatic change and climate protection; (d) Planning of nature dangers; (e) Tourism.

  15. The effects of radionuclides in the atmosphere on weather, climate and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jager, D. de.

    1992-10-01

    A literature study on the effects of the released radionuclides in the atmosphere on weather, climate and environment are reported. In this report a science outlook of these effects is presented. The emissions generated by the electricity are the central issue. For the global effects the released krypton-85 (half-life time 10,78 years) which are caused by reprocessing factories would take an important role, but for local effects the releasing of short-living isotopes as xenon-133 and xenon-135 produced by nuclear reactors and radon-222 produced by mining activities must be taken into account. The production, emission and distribution of these related important isotopes are discussed, just like air-electric circuits (global), the chemistry of the atmosphere (local) and the consequences of it for the weather, climate and environment on earth. Radionuclides could affect on the development of the thunderstorm, rainfall, cloud formation, air dampness, acid- and aerosol formations and also indirect, for example, for the greenhouse effect and acid rainfall. (author). 133 refs., 22 figs., 11 tabs

  16. How to use The National Gallery as a cross curricular approach to weather and climate studies at primary level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, P. J. K.

    2009-09-01

    How to use The National Gallery as a cross curricular approach to weather and climate studies at primary level. Pål J. Kirkeby Hansen Faculty of Education and International Studies, Oslo University College (PalKirkeby.Hansen@lui.hio.no) Weather and climate are topics in natural science and geography in primary and secondary education in most countries. The pupils are often doing own weather observations and measurements and are presenting the results oral, by posters or with digital aids. They also use the Internet with all its relevant resources in their studies to develop vocabulary, practical and conceptual knowledge. Knowledge about weather and climate is parts of liberal education and could be projected to other topics in science and to topics in other subjects, for instance: history, social geography, literature and arts. This article reports from a case study in grade 3 classes (age 9 year) during their Weather Week. Their science teacher was, quite untypical, also educated in art history. She arranged a visited to The National Gallery with the double agenda: 1. To introduce the pupils to Norwegian canon paintings from the national romantic period, our so-called "golden age”. 2. To look for and discuss weather elements in this paintings. For one hour the museum curator guided the pupils around the water cycle by using the paintings. While the pupils' own observations of weather, clouds and wind and measurements of temperature and precipitation during the Weather Week only are point checks, the guided tour in The National Gallery gave literally "the whole picture” of the Norwegian weather and climate and of the water cycle. During the tour, the curator constantly invited the pupils to tell about and discuss what weather and water elements they were looking at when standing in front of a painting. The pupils were responsive and interested all the time. Back at school, they demonstrated that they had learned much about both weather elements, the water

  17. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

    2017-03-27

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

  18. Erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico - the effects of climate and weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2016-04-01

    Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic

  19. How climate and weather affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic

  20. Ca isotopes, chemical weathering, and geomorphic controls on long-term climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J.; Jacobson, A. D.; Holmden, C. E.; Craw, D.

    2009-12-01

    Calcium isotope geochemistry (δ44Ca) offers a unique opportunity to directly quantify proportions of riverine Ca originating from silicate versus carbonate weathering, which is essential for understanding how geomorphic processes affecting landscape evolution, such as tectonic uplift and glaciation, influence the long-term cycling of atmospheric CO2. We measured the elemental and δ44Ca chemistry of river and rock samples from the New Zealand Southern Alps. In combination with our geochemical data, we used runoff and suspended sediment fluxes to elucidate relationships between chemical weathering, mechanical erosion, and long-term climate. The S. Alps have uniform bedrock chemistry but significant tectonic and climatic gradients. West of the main topographic divide, watersheds drain schist and experience high runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. East of the main divide, watersheds drain greywacke or schist and experience lower runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. Glaciated watersheds with high erosion rates are present throughout the mountain range. Both schist and greywacke contain up to 3% metamorphic and hydrothermal calcite. Waters exhibit two-component mixing between calcite and silicate end-members when plotted as δ44Ca versus Ca/Sr. Scatter about the mixing curve is generally smaller than the analytical uncertainty of the measurements and likely reflects variability of the end-member compositions rather than fractionation. We used the mixing relationships to calculate percentages of Ca from silicate weathering. Rivers draining greywacke average 27.6% of Ca from silicate weathering with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 41.8 and 19.5%, respectively. Rivers draining schist average 9.8% with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 17.7 and 3.9%, respectively. Although Ca fluxes are larger west of the main divide where erosion and runoff are higher, the percentage of Ca from silicate weathering is smaller. Hence, long-term atmospheric CO2

  1. Regulatory applications of the relationships between natural gas usage and weather; Climate information for the application of solar energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gray, J.A.; Patterson, D.L.; Proctor, M.S.; Warren, H.E.; Robles-Gil, S.

    1997-05-01

    This books includes two articles, each with an abstract dealing with the economic aspects of natural gas usage and solar energy usage both depending on the data about weather forecasting. The demand of natural gas depends on weather and the analysis of gas usage is required in a rate case in order to properly estimate the volumes and revenues that would be recovered from current rate under conditions of normal weather. The actual uses of the principal types of solar energy systems, based on their climatic, technological and economical context are needed for future estimation concerning this energy sources which would have a more significant role in the future

  2. Crossing the chasm: how to develop weather and climate models for next generation computers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. N. Lawrence

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate models are complex pieces of software which include many individual components, each of which is evolving under pressure to exploit advances in computing to enhance some combination of a range of possible improvements (higher spatio-temporal resolution, increased fidelity in terms of resolved processes, more quantification of uncertainty, etc.. However, after many years of a relatively stable computing environment with little choice in processing architecture or programming paradigm (basically X86 processors using MPI for parallelism, the existing menu of processor choices includes significant diversity, and more is on the horizon. This computational diversity, coupled with ever increasing software complexity, leads to the very real possibility that weather and climate modelling will arrive at a chasm which will separate scientific aspiration from our ability to develop and/or rapidly adapt codes to the available hardware. In this paper we review the hardware and software trends which are leading us towards this chasm, before describing current progress in addressing some of the tools which we may be able to use to bridge the chasm. This brief introduction to current tools and plans is followed by a discussion outlining the scientific requirements for quality model codes which have satisfactory performance and portability, while simultaneously supporting productive scientific evolution. We assert that the existing method of incremental model improvements employing small steps which adjust to the changing hardware environment is likely to be inadequate for crossing the chasm between aspiration and hardware at a satisfactory pace, in part because institutions cannot have all the relevant expertise in house. Instead, we outline a methodology based on large community efforts in engineering and standardisation, which will depend on identifying a taxonomy of key activities – perhaps based on existing efforts to develop

  3. Crossing the chasm: how to develop weather and climate models for next generation computers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Bryan N.; Rezny, Michael; Budich, Reinhard; Bauer, Peter; Behrens, Jörg; Carter, Mick; Deconinck, Willem; Ford, Rupert; Maynard, Christopher; Mullerworth, Steven; Osuna, Carlos; Porter, Andrew; Serradell, Kim; Valcke, Sophie; Wedi, Nils; Wilson, Simon

    2018-05-01

    Weather and climate models are complex pieces of software which include many individual components, each of which is evolving under pressure to exploit advances in computing to enhance some combination of a range of possible improvements (higher spatio-temporal resolution, increased fidelity in terms of resolved processes, more quantification of uncertainty, etc.). However, after many years of a relatively stable computing environment with little choice in processing architecture or programming paradigm (basically X86 processors using MPI for parallelism), the existing menu of processor choices includes significant diversity, and more is on the horizon. This computational diversity, coupled with ever increasing software complexity, leads to the very real possibility that weather and climate modelling will arrive at a chasm which will separate scientific aspiration from our ability to develop and/or rapidly adapt codes to the available hardware. In this paper we review the hardware and software trends which are leading us towards this chasm, before describing current progress in addressing some of the tools which we may be able to use to bridge the chasm. This brief introduction to current tools and plans is followed by a discussion outlining the scientific requirements for quality model codes which have satisfactory performance and portability, while simultaneously supporting productive scientific evolution. We assert that the existing method of incremental model improvements employing small steps which adjust to the changing hardware environment is likely to be inadequate for crossing the chasm between aspiration and hardware at a satisfactory pace, in part because institutions cannot have all the relevant expertise in house. Instead, we outline a methodology based on large community efforts in engineering and standardisation, which will depend on identifying a taxonomy of key activities - perhaps based on existing efforts to develop domain-specific languages

  4. EarthLabs Modules: Engaging Students In Extended, Rigorous Investigations Of The Ocean, Climate and Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manley, J.; Chegwidden, D.; Mote, A. S.; Ledley, T. S.; Lynds, S. E.; Haddad, N.; Ellins, K.

    2016-02-01

    EarthLabs, envisioned as a national model for high school Earth or Environmental Science lab courses, is adaptable for both undergraduate middle school students. The collection includes ten online modules that combine to feature a global view of our planet as a dynamic, interconnected system, by engaging learners in extended investigations. EarthLabs support state and national guidelines, including the NGSS, for science content. Four modules directly guide students to discover vital aspects of the oceans while five other modules incorporate ocean sciences in order to complete an understanding of Earth's climate system. Students gain a broad perspective on the key role oceans play in fishing industry, droughts, coral reefs, hurricanes, the carbon cycle, as well as life on land and in the seas to drive our changing climate by interacting with scientific research data, manipulating satellite imagery, numerical data, computer visualizations, experiments, and video tutorials. Students explore Earth system processes and build quantitative skills that enable them to objectively evaluate scientific findings for themselves as they move through ordered sequences that guide the learning. As a robust collection, EarthLabs modules engage students in extended, rigorous investigations allowing a deeper understanding of the ocean, climate and weather. This presentation provides an overview of the ten curriculum modules that comprise the EarthLabs collection developed by TERC and found at http://serc.carleton.edu/earthlabs/index.html. Evaluation data on the effectiveness and use in secondary education classrooms will be summarized.

  5. Climate change mitigation: potential benefits and pitfalls of enhanced rock weathering in tropical agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, David P; Lim, Felix; James, Rachael H; Pearce, Christopher R; Scholes, Julie; Freckleton, Robert P; Beerling, David J

    2017-04-01

    Restricting future global temperature increase to 2°C or less requires the adoption of negative emissions technologies for carbon capture and storage. We review the potential for deployment of enhanced weathering (EW), via the application of crushed reactive silicate rocks (such as basalt), on over 680 million hectares of tropical agricultural and tree plantations to offset fossil fuel CO 2 emissions. Warm tropical climates and productive crops will substantially enhance weathering rates, with potential co-benefits including decreased soil acidification and increased phosphorus supply promoting higher crop yields sparing forest for conservation, and reduced cultural eutrophication. Potential pitfalls include the impacts of mining operations on deforestation, producing the energy to crush and transport silicates and the erosion of silicates into rivers and coral reefs that increases inorganic turbidity, sedimentation and pH, with unknown impacts for biodiversity. We identify nine priority research areas for untapping the potential of EW in the tropics, including effectiveness of tropical agriculture at EW for major crops in relation to particle sizes and soil types, impacts on human health, and effects on farmland, adjacent forest and stream-water biodiversity. © 2017 The Author(s).

  6. Data Mashups: Linking Human Health and Wellbeing with Weather, Climate and the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, L. E.; Sarran, C.; Golding, B.; Haines, A.; Kessel, A.; Djennad, M.; Hajat, S.; Nichols, G.; Gordon Brown, H.; Depledge, M.

    2016-12-01

    A large part of the global disease burden can be linked to environmental factors, underpinned by unhealthy behaviours. Research into these linkages suffers from lack of common tools and databases for investigations across many different scientific disciplines to explore these complex associations. The MEDMI (Medical and Environmental Data-a Mash-up Infrastructure) Partnership brings together leading organisations and researchers in climate, weather, environment, and human health. We have created a proof-of-concept central data and analysis system with the UK Met Office and Public Health England data as the internet-based MEDMI Platform (www.data-mashup.org.uk) to serve as a common resource for researchers to link and analyse complex meteorological, environmental and epidemiological data in the UK. The Platform is hosted on its own dedicated server, with secure internet and in-person access with appropriate safeguards for ethical, copyright, security, preservation, and data sharing issues. Via the Platform, there is a demonstration Browser Application with access to user-selected subsets of the data for: a) analyses using time series (e.g. mortality/environmental variables), and b) data visualizations (e.g. infectious diseases/environmental variables). One demonstration project is linking climate change, harmful algal blooms and oceanographic modelling building on the hydrodynamic-biogeochemical coupled models; in situ and satellite observations as well as UK HAB data and hospital episode statistics data are being used for model verification and future forecasting. The MEDMI Project provides a demonstration of the potential, barriers and challenges, of these "data mashups" of environment and health data. Although there remain many challenges to creating and sustaining such a shared resource, these activities and resources are essential to truly explore the complex interactions between climate and other environmental change and health at the local and global scale.

  7. Climate and weather across scales: singularities and stochastic Levy-Clifford algebra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, Daniel; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia

    2016-04-01

    There have been several attempts to understand and simulate the fluctuations of weather and climate across scales. Beyond mono/uni-scaling approaches (e.g. using spectral analysis), this was done with the help of multifractal techniques that aim to track and simulate the scaling singularities of the underlying equations instead of relying on numerical, scale truncated simulations of these equations (Royer et al., 2008, Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2013). However, these techniques were limited to deal with scalar fields, instead of dealing directly with a system of complex interactions and non trivial symmetries. The latter is unfortunately indispensable to answer to the challenging question of being able to assess the climatology of (exo-) planets based on first principles (Pierrehumbert, 2013) or to fully address the question of the relevance of quasi-geostrophic turbulence and to define an effective, fractal dimension of the atmospheric motions (Schertzer et al., 2012). In this talk, we present a plausible candidate based on the combination of Lévy stable processes and Clifford algebra. Together they combine stochastic and structural properties that are strongly universal. They therefore define with the help of a few physically meaningful parameters a wide class of stochastic symmetries, as well as high dimensional vector- or manifold-valued fields respecting these symmetries (Schertzer and Tchiguirinskaia, 2015). Lovejoy, S. & Schertzer, D., 2013. The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades. Cambridge U.K. Cambridge Univeristy Press. Pierrehumbert, R.T., 2013. Strange news from other stars. Nature Geoscience, 6(2), pp.81-83. Royer, J.F. et al., 2008. Multifractal analysis of the evolution of simulated precipitation over France in a climate scenario. C.R. Geoscience, 340(431-440). Schertzer, D. et al., 2012. Quasi-geostrophic turbulence and generalized scale invariance, a theoretical reply. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, pp.327-336. Schertzer, D

  8. Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Bradley S; Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R

    2018-01-01

    Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by

  9. Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

    2012-01-01

    Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

  10. Long-range weather prediction and prevention of climate catastrophes: a status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldeira, K; Caravan, G; Govindasamy, B; Grossman, A; Hyde, R; Ishikawa, M; Ledebuhr, A; Leith, C; Molenkamp, C; Teller, E; Wood, L

    1999-01-01

    As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge-and then control-of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living-and, indeed, reliability of life itself-become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one, Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more

  11. Long-range Weather Prediction and Prevention of Climate Catastrophes: A Status Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, K.; Caravan, G.; Govindasamy, B.; Grossman, A.; Hyde, R.; Ishikawa, M.; Ledebuhr, A.; Leith, C.; Molenkamp, C.; Teller, E.; Wood, L.

    1999-08-18

    As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge--and then control--of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living--and, indeed, reliability of life itself--become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one. Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more

  12. Fractionaly Integrated Flux model and Scaling Laws in Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, Daniel; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2013-04-01

    The Fractionaly Integrated Flux model (FIF) has been extensively used to model intermittent observables, like the velocity field, by defining them with the help of a fractional integration of a conservative (i.e. strictly scale invariant) flux, such as the turbulent energy flux. It indeed corresponds to a well-defined modelling that yields the observed scaling laws. Generalised Scale Invariance (GSI) enables FIF to deal with anisotropic fractional integrations and has been rather successful to define and model a unique regime of scaling anisotropic turbulence up to planetary scales. This turbulence has an effective dimension of 23/9=2.55... instead of the classical hypothesised 2D and 3D turbulent regimes, respectively for large and small spatial scales. It therefore theoretically eliminates a non plausible "dimension transition" between these two regimes and the resulting requirement of a turbulent energy "mesoscale gap", whose empirical evidence has been brought more and more into question. More recently, GSI-FIF was used to analyse climate, therefore at much larger time scales. Indeed, the 23/9-dimensional regime necessarily breaks up at the outer spatial scales. The corresponding transition range, which can be called "macroweather", seems to have many interesting properties, e.g. it rather corresponds to a fractional differentiation in time with a roughly flat frequency spectrum. Furthermore, this transition yields the possibility to have at much larger time scales scaling space-time climate fluctuations with a much stronger scaling anisotropy between time and space. Lovejoy, S. and D. Schertzer (2013). The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades. Cambridge Press (in press). Schertzer, D. et al. (1997). Fractals 5(3): 427-471. Schertzer, D. and S. Lovejoy (2011). International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 21(12): 3417-3456.

  13. A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, V.; Simon, A.; Bhardwaj, A.; Ghosh, T.; Ross, R.

    2016-06-01

    This review provides a summary of work in the area of ensemble forecasts for weather, climate, oceans, and hurricanes. This includes a combination of multiple forecast model results that does not dwell on the ensemble mean but uses a unique collective bias reduction procedure. A theoretical framework for this procedure is provided, utilizing a suite of models that is constructed from the well-known Lorenz low-order nonlinear system. A tutorial that includes a walk-through table and illustrates the inner workings of the multimodel superensemble's principle is provided. Systematic errors in a single deterministic model arise from a host of features that range from the model's initial state (data assimilation), resolution, representation of physics, dynamics, and ocean processes, local aspects of orography, water bodies, and details of the land surface. Models, in their diversity of representation of such features, end up leaving unique signatures of systematic errors. The multimodel superensemble utilizes as many as 10 million weights to take into account the bias errors arising from these diverse features of multimodels. The design of a single deterministic forecast models that utilizes multiple features from the use of the large volume of weights is provided here. This has led to a better understanding of the error growths and the collective bias reductions for several of the physical parameterizations within diverse models, such as cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer physics, and radiative transfer. A number of examples for weather, seasonal climate, hurricanes and sub surface oceanic forecast skills of member models, the ensemble mean, and the superensemble are provided.

  14. Stable and Radiogenic Sr Isotopes in Barite - Clues on the Links Between Weathering, Climate and the C Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paytan, A.; Eisenhauer, A.; Wallmann, K. J. G.; Griffith, E. M.; Ridgwell, A.

    2017-12-01

    The radiogenic Sr-isotopic signature (87Sr/86Sr) of seawater fluctuates primarily in response to changes in the inputs of Sr from weathering and hydrothermal activity, which have distinct 87Sr/86Sr values. Changes in the isotopic ratio of the weathered terrain also contribute to observed changes in 87Sr/86Sr. The stable Sr-isotope ratios in seawater (mass dependent isotopic fractionation; δ88/86Sr) fluctuate primarily in response to the rate of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) accumulation at the seafloor. Together the radiogenic and stable Sr can constrain the coupling between weathering and sedimentation and shed light on the relation between weathering, CaCO3 deposition, the global carbon (C) cycle and climate. Reconstruction of the coupled stable and radiogenic Sr seawater curves over the past 35 Ma of Earth history indicates that the location and rate of CaCO3 burial in the ocean fluctuated considerably over the past 35 Ma. Between 35 to 18 Ma a reduction in neritic CaCO3 burial and increased burial in pelagic settings is observed. The trend was reversed between 20 and 3 Ma and finally over the last 3 million years a rapid change from neritic to pelagic burial is seen. The lack of continues increase of pelagic CaCO3 burial rates suggests that silicate weathering rates have not increased monotonically over the past 35 Ma implying strong feedbacks operating in the climate system - lower atmospheric pCO2 and cooling trends (which control chemical weathering as seen from carbonate deposition in the ocean) countered the effects of uplift (which controls physical weathering) - modulating weathering rates and preventing a runaway ice-house. In addition the data suggests considerable fluctuations in seawater Sr concentrations over time. These data demonstrate how using multiple isotope proxies can help constrain interpretations of the geological record.

  15. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  16. Research Data Alliance's Interest Group on "Weather, Climate and Air Quality"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Benincasa, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    Research Data Alliance's Interest Group on "Weather, Climate and Air Quality" More than ever in the history of Earth sciences, scientists are confronted with the problem of dealing with huge amounts of data that grow continuously at a rate that becomes a challenge to process and analyse them using conventional methods. Data come from many different and widely distributed sources, ranging from satellite platforms and in-situ sensors to model simulations, and with different degrees of openness. How can Earth scientists deal with this diversity and big volume and extract useful information to understand and predict the relevant processes? The Research Data Alliance (RDA, https://rd-alliance.org/), an organization that promotes and develops new data policies, data standards and focuses on the development of new technical solutions applicable in many distinct areas of sciences, recently entered in its third phase. In this framework, an Interest Group (IG) comprised of community experts that are committed to directly or indirectly enable and facilitate data sharing, exchange, or interoperability in the fields of weather, climate and air quality has been created recently. Its aim is to explore and discuss the challenges for the use and efficient analysis of large and diverse datasets of relevance for these fields taking advantage of the knowledge generated and exchanged in RDA. At the same time, this IG intends to be a meeting point between members of the aforementioned communities to share experiences and propose new solutions to overcome the forthcoming challenges. Based on the collaboration between several research meteorological and European climate institutes, but also taking into account the input from the private (from the renewable energies, satellites and agriculture sectors for example) and public sectors, this IG will suggest practical and applicable solutions for Big Data issues, both at technological and policy level, encountered by these communities. We

  17. Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbero, R; Abatzoglou, J T; Steel, E A; K Larkin, Narasimhan

    2014-01-01

    Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections. (letter)

  18. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace I. Davies

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  19. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2014-12-23

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  20. Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    April E Reside

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species. METHODOLOGY: We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008. These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year averages of the same climatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.

  1. The Influence of Runoff and Surface Hydrology on Titan's Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulk, S.; Lora, J. M.; Mitchell, J.; Moon, S.

    2017-12-01

    Titan's surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle, producing characteristic weather and seasonal climate patterns. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane "wetlands" reservoirs realistically produce observed cloud features and temperature profiles of Titan's atmosphere, whereas "aquaplanet" simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan's surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan's large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow of a global or regional methane table. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan's hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan's global climate, and lays the groundwork for further surface hydrology developments in Titan

  2. Space Solar Patrol data and changes in weather and climate, including global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avakyan, S V; Leonov, N B; Voronin, N A; Baranova, L A; Savinov, E P

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, the results obtained during the execution of several ISTC projects are presented. The general aim of these projects has been the study of global changes in the environment, connected with solar activity. A brief description of the optical apparatus of the Space Solar Patrol (SSP) developed and built in the framework of the ISTC projects 385, 385.2, 1523 and 2500 is given. The SSP is intended for permanent monitoring of spectra and absolute fluxes of soft x-ray and extreme ultraviolet (x-ray/EUV) radiation from the full disk of the Sun which ionizes the upper atmosphere of the Earth. Permanent solar monitoring in the main part of the ionizing radiation spectra 0.8–115 (119) nm does not exist. The apparatus of the SSP was developed in the years 1996–2005 with multiyear experience of developing such apparatus in S I Vavilov State Optical Institute. The basis of this apparatus is the use of unique detectors of ionizing radiation—open secondary electron multipliers, which are 'solar blind' to near UV, visible and IR radiation from the Sun, and new methodology of these solar spectroradiometric absolute measurements. The prospects are discussed of using the SSP data for the investigation and forecast of the influence of solar variability on the weather and climate including global warming and also on the biosphere including human beings (proposal 3878)

  3. Climate, weather, socio-economic and electricity usage data for the residential and commercial sectors in FL, U.S

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayanti Mukherjee

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the data that is used in the article entitled “Climate sensitivity of end-use electricity consumption in the built environment: An application to the state of Florida, United States” (Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi, 2017 [1]. The data described in this paper pertains to the state of Florida (during the period of January 1990 to November 2015. It can be classified into four categories of (i state-level electricity consumption data; (ii climate data; (iii weather data; and (iv socio-economic data. While, electricity consumption data and climate data are obtained at monthly scale directly from the source, the weather data was initially obtained at daily-level, and then aggregated to monthly level for the purpose of analysis. The time scale of socio-economic data varies from monthly-level to yearly-level. This dataset can be used to analyze the influence of climate and weather on the electricity demand as described in Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi (2017 [1].

  4. Validating Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Properties for Weather and Climate Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.; Smith, W., Jr.; Yost, C. R.; Bedka, S. T.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D.; Sun-Mack, S.; Trepte, Q.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.

    2014-12-01

    Cloud properties determined from satellite imager radiances are increasingly used in weather and climate applications, particularly in nowcasting, model assimilation and validation, trend monitoring, and precipitation and radiation analyses. The value of using the satellite-derived cloud parameters is determined by the accuracy of the particular parameter for a given set of conditions, such as viewing and illumination angles, surface background, and cloud type and structure. Because of the great variety of those conditions and of the sensors used to monitor clouds, determining the accuracy or uncertainties in the retrieved cloud parameters is a daunting task. Sensitivity studies of the retrieved parameters to the various inputs for a particular cloud type are helpful for understanding the errors associated with the retrieval algorithm relative to the plane-parallel world assumed in most of the model clouds that serve as the basis for the retrievals. Real world clouds, however, rarely fit the plane-parallel mold and generate radiances that likely produce much greater errors in the retrieved parameter than can be inferred from sensitivity analyses. Thus, independent, empirical methods are used to provide a more reliable uncertainty analysis. At NASA Langley, cloud properties are being retrieved from both geostationary (GEO) and low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellite imagers for climate monitoring and model validation as part of the NASA CERES project since 2000 and from AVHRR data since 1978 as part of the NOAA CDR program. Cloud properties are also being retrieved in near-real time globally from both GEO and LEO satellites for weather model assimilation and nowcasting for hazards such as aircraft icing. This paper discusses the various independent datasets and approaches that are used to assessing the imager-based satellite cloud retrievals. These include, but are not limited to data from ARM sites, CloudSat, and CALIPSO. This paper discusses the use of the various

  5. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  6. Ethno-meteorology and scientific weather forecasting: Small farmers and scientists’ perspectives on climate variability in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwatoyin Dare Kolawole

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent trends in abrupt weather changes continue to pose a challenge to agricultural production most especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper specifically addresses the questions on how local farmers read and predict the weather; and how they can collaborate with weather scientists in devising adaptation strategies for climate variability (CV in the Okavango Delta of Botswana. Recent trends in agriculture-related weather variables available from country’s climate services, as well as in freely available satellite rainfall products were analysed. The utility of a seasonal hydrological forecasting system for the study area in the context of supporting farmer’s information needs were assessed. Through a multi-stage sampling procedure, a total of 592 households heads in 8 rural communities in the Okavango Delta were selected and interviewed using open and close-ended interview schedules. Also, 19 scientists were purposively selected and interviewed using questionnaires. Key informant interviews, focus group and knowledge validation workshops were used to generate qualitative information from both farmers and scientists. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used in summarising the data. Analysis of satellite rainfall products indicated that there was a consistent increase in total annual rainfall throughout the region in the last 10 years, accompanied by an increase in number of rain days, and reduction of duration of dry spells. However, there is a progressive increase in the region’s temperatures leading to increase in potential evaporation. Findings from social surveys show that farmers’ age, education level, number of years engaged in farming, sources of weather information, knowledge of weather forecasting and decision on farming practices either had a significant relationship or correlation with their perceptions about the nature of both local [ethno-meteorological] and scientific weather knowledge. Nonetheless, there was a

  7. Climate control: United States weather modification in the cold war and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Kristine C

    2008-03-01

    Rainmaking, hail busting, fog lifting, snowpack enhancing, lightning suppressing, hurricane snuffing...weather control. At the lunatic fringe of scientific discussion in the early twentieth century--and the subject of newspaper articles with tones ranging from skeptical titters to awestruck wonder--weather modification research became more serious after World War II. In the United States, the 'seeds' of silver iodide and dry ice purported to enhance rainfall and bust hailstorms soon became seeds of controversy from which sprouted attempts by federal, state and local government to control the controllers and exploit 'designer weather' for their own purposes.

  8. A support system for assessing local vulnerability to weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletti, Alex; Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks—defined and prioritized qualitatively by users—can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.

  9. Influence of weather and climate on subjective symptom intensity in atopic eczema

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vocks, E.; Busch, R.; Fröhlich, C.; Borelli, S.; Mayer, H.; Ring, J.

    The frequent clinical observation that the course of atopic eczema, a skin disease involving a disturbed cutaneous barrier function, is influenced by climate and weather motivated us to analyse these relationships biometrically. In the Swiss high-mountain area of Davos the intensity of itching experienced by patients with atopic eczema was evaluated and compared to 15 single meteorological variables recorded daily during an entire 7-year observation period. By means of univariate analyses and multiple regressions, itch intensity was found to be correlated with some meteorological variables. A clear-cut inverse correlation exists with air temperature (coefficient of correlation: -0.235, P<0.001), but the effects of water vapour pressure, air pressure and hours of sunshine are less pronounced. The results show that itching in atopic eczema is significantly dependent on meteorological conditions. The data suggest that, in patients with atopic eczema, a certain range of thermo-hygric atmospheric conditions with a balance of heat and water loss on the skin surface is essential for the skin to feel comfortable.

  10. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  11. Teaching weather and climate science in primary schools - a pilot project from the UK Met Office

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orrell, Richard; Liggins, Felicity; Challenger, Lesley; Lethem, Dom; Campbell, Katy

    2017-04-01

    Wow Schools is a pilot project from the Met Office with an aim to inspire and educate the next generation of scientists and, uniquely, use the data collected by schools to improve weather forecasts and warnings across the UK. Wow Schools was launched in late 2015 with a competition open to primary schools across the UK. 74 schools entered the draw, all hoping to be picked as one of the ten lucky schools taking part in the pilot scheme. Each winning school received a fully automatic weather station (AWS), enabling them to transmit real-time local weather observations to the Met Office's Weather Observation Website (WOW - wow.metoffice.gov.uk), an award winning web portal for uploading and sharing a range of environmental observations. They were also given a package of materials designed to get students out of the classroom to observe the weather, get hands-on with the science underpinning weather forecasting, and analyse the data they are collecting. The curriculum-relevant materials were designed with the age group 7 to 11 in mind, but could be extended to support other age groups. Each school was offered a visit by a Wow Schools Ambassador (a Met Office employee) to bring the students' learning to life, and access to a dedicated forecast for its location generated by our new supercomputer. These forecasts are improved by the school's onsite AWS reinforcing the link between observations and forecast production. The Wow Schools pilot ran throughout 2016. Here, we present the initial findings of the project, examining the potential benefits and challenges of working with schools across the UK to: enrich students' understanding of the science of weather forecasting; to source an ongoing supply of weather observations and discover how these might be used in the forecasting process; and explore what materials and business model(s) would be most useful and affordable if a wider roll-out of the initiative was undertaken.

  12. Space Solar Patrol data and changes in weather and climate, including global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avakyan, S. V.; Baranova, L. A.; Leonov, N. B.; Savinov, E. P.; Voronin, N. A.

    2010-08-01

    In this paper, the results obtained during the execution of several ISTC projects are presented. The general aim of these projects has been the study of global changes in the environment, connected with solar activity. A brief description of the optical apparatus of the Space Solar Patrol (SSP) developed and built in the framework of the ISTC projects 385, 385.2, 1523 and 2500 is given. The SSP is intended for permanent monitoring of spectra and absolute fluxes of soft x-ray and extreme ultraviolet (x-ray/EUV) radiation from the full disk of the Sun which ionizes the upper atmosphere of the Earth. Permanent solar monitoring in the main part of the ionizing radiation spectra 0.8-115 (119) nm does not exist. The apparatus of the SSP was developed in the years 1996-2005 with multiyear experience of developing such apparatus in S I Vavilov State Optical Institute. The basis of this apparatus is the use of unique detectors of ionizing radiation—open secondary electron multipliers, which are 'solar blind' to near UV, visible and IR radiation from the Sun, and new methodology of these solar spectroradiometric absolute measurements. The prospects are discussed of using the SSP data for the investigation and forecast of the influence of solar variability on the weather and climate including global warming and also on the biosphere including human beings (proposal 3878). This article was originally submitted for inclusion with the papers from the 9th International Symposium on Measurement Science and Intelligent Instruments (ISMTII-2009), published in the May 2010 issue.

  13. Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Erhard M.

    1987-06-01

    Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

  14. Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley S Law

    Full Text Available Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012 of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species, unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not

  15. Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Armstrong, Ben; Fleming, Lora E; Elson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Nichols, Gordon L

    2017-06-01

    Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM) and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE). In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae); TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter). Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior), reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias, healthcare access

  16. Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Lo Iacono

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE. In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae; TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter. Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior, reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias

  17. Inventing Caribbean climates: how science, medicine, and tourism changed tropical weather from deadly to healthy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Mark

    2011-01-01

    This article examines how four major historical factors--geographical features, social conditions, medicine, and tourism--affected European and North American views of the tropical Caribbean climate from approximately 1750 to 1950. It focuses on the British West Indies, a region barely examined in the historiography of climate, and examines the views of physicians, residents, government officials, travelers, and missionaries. International perceptions of the tropical Caribbean climate shifted markedly over time, from the deadly, disease-ridden environment of colonial depictions in the eighteenth century to one of the world's most iconic climatic paradises, where tourists sought sun-drenched beaches and healing breezes, in the twentieth. This analysis of how environmental conditions, knowledge systems, social relations, politics, and economics shaped scientific and popular understandings of climate contributes to recent studies on the cultural construction of climate. The approach also offers important lessons for present-day discussions of climate change, which often depict climate too narrowly as simply temperature.

  18. Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). Part I. Sectoral Analysis of Climate Impacts in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galeotti, M.; Goria, A.; Spantidaki, E.; Mombrini, P.

    2004-02-01

    This paper focuses on the results of the research work carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) within the WISE project. This project aims at investigating the effects and the impacts of extreme weather events, particularly very warm summers, mild winters and storms, on the socio-economic systems of European countries. The output consists of a series of empirical studies, both of quantitative and qualitative descriptive nature. The work of FEEM in the WISE project covers the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate extremes on the socio-economic system in Italy and the analysis of individuals' perception of climate extremes based on results from individuals' surveys. In this paper is presented the statistical modelling of the impact of weather, through quantitative analysis of activity time series. In particular, the core sectors analysed include fires, health, energy use, tourism and agriculture

  19. Strategies for Effective Implementation of Science Models into 6-9 Grade Classrooms on Climate, Weather, and Energy Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarker, M. B.; Stanier, C. O.; Forbes, C.; Park, S.

    2011-12-01

    As atmospheric scientists, we depend on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. We use them to predict weather patterns, to understand external forcing on the atmosphere, and as evidence to make claims about atmospheric phenomenon. Therefore, it is important that we adequately prepare atmospheric science students to use computer models. However, the public should also be aware of what models are in order to understand scientific claims about atmospheric issues, such as climate change. Although familiar with weather forecasts on television and the Internet, the general public does not understand the process of using computer models to generate a weather and climate forecasts. As a result, the public often misunderstands claims scientists make about their daily weather as well as the state of climate change. Since computer models are the best method we have to forecast the future of our climate, scientific models and modeling should be a topic covered in K-12 classrooms as part of a comprehensive science curriculum. According to the National Science Education Standards, teachers are encouraged to science models into the classroom as a way to aid in the understanding of the nature of science. However, there is very little description of what constitutes a science model, so the term is often associated with scale models. Therefore, teachers often use drawings or scale representations of physical entities, such as DNA, the solar system, or bacteria. In other words, models used in classrooms are often used as visual representations, but the purpose of science models is often overlooked. The implementation of a model-based curriculum in the science classroom can be an effective way to prepare students to think critically, problem solve, and make informed decisions as a contributing member of society. However, there are few resources available to help teachers implement science models into the science curriculum effectively. Therefore, this research project looks at

  20. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

    2001-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

  1. Picture the Atmosphere: Adding the Arts to Weather, Climate, and Air Quality Learning Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardiner, L. S.; Hatheway, B.; Ristvey, J. D., Jr.; Kirn, M.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation will highlight projects that connect visual arts and atmospheric science education - profiling varied strategies designed to help learners of all ages grow their understanding of weather, climate, and air quality with connections to the arts including (1) ways of combining art and geoscience in K-12 education, (2) methods of using art to communicate about science in museum exhibits and the web, and (3) opportunities for fostering a dialog between artists, geoscientists, and the public. For K-12 education, we have developed classroom resources that incorporate the arts in science learning in ways that help students grow their observational skills. Making observations of the environment is a skill that many artists and scientist share, although the observations are for different purposes. Emphasizing the observational skills that both artists and scientists use provides additional pathways for students to understand geoscience. For informal education, we have developed museum exhibits and content for websites and social media that utilize visual art and illustration to facilitate science communication. This allows explanation of atmospheric phenomena and processes that are too small to see, such as greenhouse gases trapping heat or ozone formation, or too large to see such as global atmospheric circulation. These illustrations also help connect with audiences that are not often drawn to geoscience. To foster a dialog between artists, geoscientists, and the public, we host temporary exhibits and public events at the National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesa Lab in Boulder, Colorado, that feature numerous exhibits highlighting connections between art and atmospheric science. This provides innovative opportunities for science education and communication and a forum for conversations between artists and scientists that provides people with different ways of exploring and describing the Earth to find common ground.

  2. Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistry, Malcolm N.; Wing, Ian Sue; De Cian, Enrica

    2017-07-01

    Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981-2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Department of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs’ responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

  3. Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). Part 2. Individual Perception of Climate Extremes in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galeotti, M.; Goria, A.; Spantidaki, E.; Mombrini, P.

    2004-02-01

    This paper focuses on the results of the research work carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) within the WISE project. This project aims at investigating the effects and the impacts of extreme weather events, particularly very warm summers, mild winters and storms, on the socio-economic systems of European countries. The output consists of a series of empirical studies, both of quantitative and qualitative descriptive nature. The work of FEEM in the WISE project covers the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate extremes on the socio-economic system in Italy and the analysis of individuals' perception of climate extremes based on results from individuals' surveys. In this paper is considered the study of the perception of weather impacts through questionnaire survey to the general public. With regard to the individuals' perception survey, a sample of 300 individuals were interviewed by telephone: 150 extracted from the North of Italy and 150 from the South of Italy. Individuals were asked general questions about their perception of climate extremes, and about the impacts of weather extremes on their daily habits at work, at home, in their leisure activities, on their transport patterns, on their health and tourism choices

  4. CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) Science: Progress thus far and the next steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallamraju, D.; Kozyra, J.; Basu, S.

    Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System CAWSES is the current program of Scientific Committee for Solar Terrestrial Physics SCOSTEP for 2004 - 2008 The main aim of CAWSES is to bring together scientists from various nations to address the coupled and global nature of the Sun-Earth System phenomena Towards that end CAWSES provides a platform for international cooperation in observations data analysis theory and modeling There has been active international participation thus far with endorsement of the national CAWSES programs in some countries and many scientists around the globe actively volunteering their time in this effort The CAWSES Science Steering Group has organized the CAWSES program into five Themes for better execution of its science Solar Influence on Climate Space Weather Science and Applications Atmospheric Coupling Processes Space Climatology and Capacity Building and Education CAWSES will cooperate with International programs that focus on the Sun-Earth system science and at the same time compliment the work of programs whose scope is beyond the realm of CAWSES This talk will briefly review the science goals of CAWSES provide salient results from different Themes with emphasis on those from the Space Weather Theme This talk will also indicate the next steps that are being planned in this program and solicit inputs from the community for the science efforts to be carried out in the future

  5. Weather on Steroids: The Art of Climate Change Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudrias, M. A.; Gershunov, A.; Sizonenko, T.; Wiese, A.; Fox, H.

    2017-12-01

    There have been many different kinds of efforts to improve climate change literacy of diverse audiences in the past several years. The challenge has been to balance science content with audience-specific messaging that engages them in both rational and affective ways. In the San Diego Region, Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other community leaders to develop a suite of programs and activities to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. CEP has partnered with the La Jolla Historical Society and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in a unique exhibition of art inspired by climate science, a project blending science and art to communicate the science of climate change in a new way and engage audiences more effectively. Weather on Steroids: the Art of Climate Change Science explores the question of consequences, challenges, and opportunities that arise from the changing climate on our planet. The exhibition merges the artistic and scientific to create a visual dialogue about the vexing problem of climate change, explores how weather variability affects the day-to-day life of local communities, and investigates Southern California vulnerability to climate change. Science serves as the inspiration for the creative responses from visual artists, who merge subjective images with empirical observation to reveal how climate variations upset the planet's balance with extreme weather impacts. Both the scientists and artists created didactic pages to explain their perspectives and each pair worked closely to incorporate the information into the creative piece so that the connection of each of 11 art installations to the science that inspired them is clear. By illuminating the reality of climate change, Weather on Steroids aspires to proactively stimulate public dialogue about one of the most important issues of our time.

  6. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  7. Influence of weather and climate variables on the basal area growth of individual shortleaf pine trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradip Saud; Thomas B. Lynch; Duncan S. Wilson; John Stewart; James M. Guldin; Bob Heinemann; Randy Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson

    2015-01-01

    An individual-tree basal area growth model previously developed for even-aged naturally occurring shortleaf pine trees (Pinus echinata Mill.) in western Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma did not include weather variables. Individual-tree growth and yield modeling of shortleaf pine has been carried out using the remeasurements of over 200 plots...

  8. U. S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Almost three million people and businesses lost power due to the complexes of thunderstorms coupled with strong winds, also known as a derecho , that...www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/hazards/2012/6#storms. NOAA. 2012e. “NWS (National Weather Service) Baltimore/Washington: The Derecho of June 29, 2012.” National Oceanic

  9. Controls on carbon storage and weathering in volcanic ash soils across a climate gradient on Mauna Kea, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, M. G.; Chadwick, O.

    2017-12-01

    Volcanic ash soils retain the largest and most persistent soil carbon pools of any ecosystem. However, the mechanisms governing soil carbon accumulation and weathering during initial phases of weathering are not well understood. We examined soil organic matter dynamics and weathering across a high altitude (3563 - 3013 m) 20 ky climate gradient on Mauna Kea in Hawaii. Four elevation sites were selected ( 250-500 mm rainfall) which range from arid-periglacial to sites which contain a mix of shrubs and grasses. At each site, between 2-3 pits were dug and major diagnostic horizons down to bedrock (in-tact lava) were sampled. Soils were analyzed for particle size, organic C and N, soil pH, exchangeable cations, base saturation, NaF pH, phosphorous sorption and bulk elements. Mass loss and pedogenic metal accumulation (hydroxlamine Fe, Al and Si extractions) were used to measure extent of weathering, leaching, changes in soil mineralogy and carbon accumulation with the short-range-ordered (SRO) minerals. Reactive-phase (SRO) minerals show a general trend of increasing abundance through the soil depth profile with increasing rainfall. However carbon accumulation patterns across the climate gradient are largely decoupled from these trends. The results suggest that after 20ky, pedogenic processes have altered the nature and composition of the volcanic ash such that it is capable of retaining soil C even where organic acid influences from plant material and leaching from rainfall is severely limited. Comparisons with lower elevation soils on Mauna Kea and other moist mesic (2500mm rainfall) sites on Hawaii suggest that these soils have reached only between 1-15 % of their capacity to retain carbon. Our results suggest that in low rainfall and a cold climate, after 20ky, weathering has advanced but is decoupled from soil carbon accumulation patterns and the associated influence of vegetation on soil development. Changes in soil carbon composition and amount across the entire

  10. Modification of input datasets for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction based on large scale climatic indices and weather generator

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Daňhelka, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 528, September (2015), s. 720-733 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : seasonal forecasting * ESP * large-scale climate * weather generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.043, year: 2015

  11. Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumul, Graciano P; Cruz, Nathaniel A; Servando, Nathaniel T; Dimalanta, Carla B

    2011-04-01

    Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

  12. Applying the 0-1 test on the analysis of climate and weather data ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrological and climate data are presented through time series. Chaos Theory offers excellent results in analyzing and forecasting time series. This theory analyzes chaotic parameters to study the behavior of time series, detect chaos and to make the related predictions. Due to the nature of climate data in the time series of ...

  13. The representation of low-level clouds during the West African monsoon in weather and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniffka, Anke; Hannak, Lisa; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The West African monsoon is one of the most important large-scale circulation features in the tropics and the associated seasonal rainfalls are crucial to rain-fed agriculture and water resources for hundreds of millions of people. However, numerical weather and climate models still struggle to realistically represent salient features of the monsoon across a wide range of scales. Recently it has been shown that substantial errors in radiation and clouds exist in the southern parts of West Africa (8°W-8°E, 5-10°N) during summer. This area is characterised by strong low-level jets associated with the formation of extensive ultra-low stratus clouds. Often persisting long after sunrise, these clouds have a substantial impact on the radiation budget at the surface and thus the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we present some first results from a detailed analysis of the representation of these clouds and the associated PBL features across a range of weather and climate models. Recent climate model simulations for the period 1991-2010 run in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) offer a great opportunity for this analysis. The models are those used for the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but for YOTC the model output has a much better temporal resolution, allowing to resolve the diurnal cycle, and includes diabatic terms, allowing to much better assess physical reasons for errors in low-level temperature, moisture and thus cloudiness. These more statistical climate model analyses are complemented by experiments using ICON (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model), the new numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ICON allows testing sensitivities to model resolution and numerical schemes. These model simulations are validated against (re-)analysis data, satellite observations (e.g. CM SAF cloud and

  14. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)

    1992-05-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

  15. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  16. Weathering and landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

    2005-04-01

    In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

  17. ClimoBase: Rouse Canadian Surface Observations of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Variables, 1984-1998

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — ClimoBase is a collection of surface climate measurements collected in Northern Canada by Dr. Wayne Rouse between 1984 and 1998 in three locations: Churchill,...

  18. Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

    2015-01-01

    Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.

  19. Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

    2015-01-01

    Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357

  20. Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, J.B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 ?? 8 km2 areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

  1. Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

  2. GLOBE Atmosphere and AMS Diversity Program Content to Foster Weather and Climate Science Awareness at HBCUs: A Curriculum Enhancement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padgett, D.

    2017-12-01

    Tennessee State University (TSU) is a member of the "Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Mission Earth" project. The World Regional Geography (GEOG 1010/1020) courses are required for Education majors. Pre-service teachers must complete several exercises to be certified in the GLOBE Atmosphere Protocols. The pre-service teachers are required to develop GLOBE-based lessons to high school students. The exercise theme is "Exploring the Impacts of Urban Heat Islands (UHI) using Geospatial Technology." Surface temperature, ambient air temperature, and cloud cover data are collected. Sample point locations are logged using Garmin GPS receivers and then mapped using ArcGIS Online (http://arcg.is/1oiD379). The service learning outreach associated with this experience requires collegians to thoroughly understand the physical, social, and health science content associated with UHIs and then impart the information to younger learners. The precollegiate students are motivated due to their closeness in age and social context to the college students. All of the students have the advantage of engaging in hands-on problem-based learning of complex meteorology, climate science, and geospatial technology concepts. The optimal result is to have pre-service teachers enroll in the Weather and Climate (GEOG 3500) course, which is supported by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Weather and Climate Studies Curriculum. Tennessee State University faculty have completed training to deliver the curriculum through the AMS Diversity Program. The AMS Weather Studies and Climate Studies programs have been institutionalized at Tennessee State University (TSU) since fall 2005. Approximately 250 undergraduate students have been exposed to the interactive AMS learning materials over the past 10-plus years. Non-STEM, and education majors are stimulated by the real-time course content and are encouraged to think critically about atmospheric systems science, and

  3. Weather uncertainty versus climate change uncertainty in a short television weather broadcast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, J.; Ward, B.; Maibach, E.

    2011-12-01

    For TV meteorologists talking about uncertainty in a two-minute forecast can be a real challenge. It can quickly open the way to viewer confusion. TV meteorologists understand the uncertainties of short term weather models and have different methods to convey the degrees of confidence to the viewing public. Visual examples are seen in the 7-day forecasts and the hurricane track forecasts. But does the public really understand a 60 percent chance of rain or the hurricane cone? Communication of climate model uncertainty is even more daunting. The viewing public can quickly switch to denial of solid science. A short review of the latest national survey of TV meteorologists by George Mason University and lessons learned from a series of climate change workshops with TV broadcasters provide valuable insights into effectively using visualizations and invoking multimedia-learning theories in weather forecasts to improve public understanding of climate change.

  4. The Effects of Heat Advection on UK Weather and Climate Observations in the Vicinity of Small Urbanized Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, Richard; Cai, Xiaoming; Chapman, Lee; Heaviside, Clare; Thornes, John E.

    2017-10-01

    Weather and climate networks traditionally follow rigorous siting guidelines, with individual stations located away from frost hollows, trees or urban areas. However, the diverse nature of the UK landscape suggests that the feasibility of siting stations that are truly representative of regional climate and free from distorting local effects is increasingly difficult. Whilst the urban heat island is a well-studied phenomenon and usually accounted for, the effect of warm urban air advected downwind is rarely considered, particularly at rural stations adjacent to urban areas. Until recently, urban heat advection (UHA) was viewed as an urban boundary-layer process through the formation of an urban plume that rises above the surface as it is advected. However, these dynamic UHA effects are shown to also have an impact on surface observations. Results show a significant difference in temperatures anomalies (p careful interpretation of long-term temperature data taken near small urban areas.

  5. Towards the development of a climate model evaluation system in the Centre for Australian Weather and climate research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rikus, Lawrie; Hu, Ben; Dix, Martin; Watterson, Ian; Elliott, Tracey

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the philosophy of the climate model evaluation scheme being developed within CAWCR as well as the database of observational data-sets which under-pins it. It argues that model evaluation should measure 'fitness-of-purpose', that it should be objective and that it should be based on the largest possible number of observational data-sets. Time series plots of smoothed observational data and the relevance of the disparity between data from different sources are discussed. The paper calls for active participation of the Australian climate research community in the project.

  6. Public health and climate change. The example of extreme weather events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal, M.; Pirard, P.; Medina, S.; Viso, A.C.; Caserio-Schonemann, C.; Beaudeau, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Health surveillance Systems can be used 1) to trigger early warning Systems, 2) to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, 3) to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and 4) to evaluate these measures. InVS proposed a method to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for strengthened health surveillance Systems, taking into account environment, individual and social behaviors, demography and health state. Extreme climate events are illustrated here. These events have short, medium and long term impacts that could be reduced through efficient prevention. To better understand these impacts and orientate prevention, interdisciplinary studies will be needed. (authors)

  7. Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

    2010-12-01

    Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

  8. Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.

    2012-01-01

    The influence of recent climate change on the world’s biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation, yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 38C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

  9. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Russell A. Parsons; Ian D. Davies; Karen J. King; Chao Li; Ross A. Bradstock; Malcolm Gill

    2013-01-01

    An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide...

  10. Multi-year and reference year weather data for building energy labelling in north Italy climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pernigotto, G.; Prada, A.; Costola, D.; Gasparella, A.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    Representative weather information is essential for a reliable building energy performance evaluation. Even if detailed energy analyses can be carried out considering the multi-year weather data, generally a single reference year is adopted. Thus, this artificial year has to correctly approximate

  11. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

  12. Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, D. B.

    1997-10-01

    The skill in predicting spatially varying weather/climate maps depends on the definition of the measure of similarity between the maps. Under the justifiable approximation that the anomaly maps are distributed multinormally, it is shown analytically that the choice of weighting metric, used in defining the anomaly correlation between spatial maps, can change the resulting probability distribution of the correlation coefficient. The estimate of the numbers of degrees of freedom based on the variance of the correlation distribution can vary from unity up to the number of grid points depending on the choice of weighting metric. The (pseudo-) inverse of the sample covariance matrix acts as a special choice for the metric in that it gives a correlation distribution which has minimal kurtosis and maximum dimension. Minimal kurtosis suggests that the average predictive skill might be improved due to the rarer occurrence of troublesome outlier patterns far from the mean state. Maximum dimension has a disadvantage for analogue prediction schemes in that it gives the minimum number of analogue states. This metric also has an advantage in that it allows one to powerfully test the null hypothesis of multinormality by examining the second and third moments of the correlation coefficient which were introduced by Mardia as invariant measures of multivariate kurtosis and skewness. For these reasons, it is suggested that this metric could be usefully employed in the prediction of weather/climate and in fingerprinting anthropogenic climate change. The ideas are illustrated using the bivariate example of the observed monthly mean sea-level pressures at Darwin and Tahitifrom 1866 1995.

  13. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Compton J.; Yager, Karina; Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

    2011-01-01

    Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to

  14. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2018-06-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  15. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2017-08-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  16. Evaluating the effects of terrestrial ecosystems, climate and carbon dioxide on weathering over geological time: a global-scale process-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Lyla L.; Banwart, Steve A.; Valdes, Paul J.; Leake, Jonathan R.; Beerling, David J.

    2012-01-01

    Global weathering of calcium and magnesium silicate rocks provides the long-term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on a timescale of millions of years by causing precipitation of calcium carbonates on the seafloor. Catchment-scale field studies consistently indicate that vegetation increases silicate rock weathering, but incorporating the effects of trees and fungal symbionts into geochemical carbon cycle models has relied upon simple empirical scaling functions. Here, we describe the development and application of a process-based approach to deriving quantitative estimates of weathering by plant roots, associated symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi and climate. Our approach accounts for the influence of terrestrial primary productivity via nutrient uptake on soil chemistry and mineral weathering, driven by simulations using a dynamic global vegetation model coupled to an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model of the Earth's climate. The strategy is successfully validated against observations of weathering in watersheds around the world, indicating that it may have some utility when extrapolated into the past. When applied to a suite of six global simulations from 215 to 50 Ma, we find significantly larger effects over the past 220 Myr relative to the present day. Vegetation and mycorrhizal fungi enhanced climate-driven weathering by a factor of up to 2. Overall, we demonstrate a more realistic process-based treatment of plant fungal–geosphere interactions at the global scale, which constitutes a first step towards developing ‘next-generation’ geochemical models. PMID:22232768

  17. Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

    2009-12-01

    In this study we explore the potential for re-insurance schemes built on regional climatic forecasts. We focus on micro-insurance contracts indexed on precipitation in 9 villages in Kenya, Tanzania (Eastern Africa) and Malawi (Southern Africa), and analyze the precipitation patterns and payouts resulting from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inability to manage future climate risk represents a “poverty trap” for several African regions. Weather shocks can potentially destabilize not only household, but also entire countries. Governments in drought-prone countries, donors and relief agencies are becoming aware of the importance to develop an ex-ante risk management framework for weather risk. Joint efforts to develop innovative mechanisms to spread and pool risk such as microinsurance and microcredit are currently being designed in several developing countries. While ENSO is an important component in modulating the rainfall regime in tropical Africa, the micro-insurance experiments currently under development to address drought risk among smallholder farmers in this region do not take into account ENSO monitoring or forecasting yet. ENSO forecasts could be integrated in the contracts and reinsurance schemes could be designed at the continental scale taking advantage of the different impact of ENSO on different regions. ENSO is associated to a bipolar precipitation pattern in Southern and Eastern Africa. La Niña years (i.e. Cold ENSO Episodes) are characterized by dry climate in Eastern Africa and wet climate in Southern Africa. During El Niño (or Warm Episode) the precipitation dipole is inverted, and Eastern Africa experiences increased probability for above normal rainfall (Halpert and Ropelewski, 1992, Journal of Climate). Our study represents the first exercise in trying to include ENSO forecasts in micro weather index insurance contract design. We analyzed the contracts payouts with respect to climate variability. In particular (i) we simulated

  18. Climate, Weather and Daily Mobility : Transport Mode Choices and Travel Experiences in the Randstad Holland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Böcker, L.

    2014-01-01

    Intuitively, weather plays an important role in everyday mobility. How often do we not expose ourselves to cold, heat, sun, rain, snow or wind when we are travelling on foot or by bicycle; waiting at a bus stop; walking towards a parked car; or driving under slippery road conditions. Recently,

  19. On the usage of classical nucleation theory in predicting the impact of bacteria on weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahyoun, Maher; Woetmann Nielsen, Niels; Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Finster, Kai; Bay Gosewinkel Karlson, Ulrich; Šantl-Temkiv, Tina; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik

    2014-05-01

    Bacteria, e.g. Pseudomonas syringae, have previously been found efficient in nucleating ice heterogeneously at temperatures close to -2°C in laboratory tests. Therefore, ice nucleation active (INA) bacteria may be involved in the formation of precipitation in mixed phase clouds, and could potentially influence weather and climate. Investigations into the impact of INA bacteria on climate have shown that emissions were too low to significantly impact the climate (Hoose et al., 2010). The goal of this study is to clarify the reason for finding the marginal impact on climate when INA bacteria were considered, by investigating the usability of ice nucleation rate parameterization based on classical nucleation theory (CNT). For this purpose, two parameterizations of heterogeneous ice nucleation were compared. Both parameterizations were implemented and tested in a 1-d version of the operational weather model (HIRLAM) (Lynch et al., 2000; Unden et al., 2002) in two different meteorological cases. The first parameterization is based on CNT and denoted CH08 (Chen et al., 2008). This parameterization is a function of temperature and the size of the IN. The second parameterization, denoted HAR13, was derived from nucleation measurements of SnomaxTM (Hartmann et al., 2013). It is a function of temperature and the number of protein complexes on the outer membranes of the cell. The fraction of cloud droplets containing each type of IN as percentage in the cloud droplets population were used and the sensitivity of cloud ice production in each parameterization was compared. In this study, HAR13 produces more cloud ice and precipitation than CH08 when the bacteria fraction increases. In CH08, the increase of the bacteria fraction leads to decreasing the cloud ice mixing ratio. The ice production using HAR13 was found to be more sensitive to the change of the bacterial fraction than CH08 which did not show a similar sensitivity. As a result, this may explain the marginal impact of

  20. Sealed Attics Exposed to Two Years of Weathering in a Hot and Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, William A [ORNL; Railkar, Sudhir [GAF; Shiao, Ming C [ORNL; Desjarlais, Andre Omer [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Field studies in a hot, humid climate were conducted to investigate the thermal and hygrothermal performance of ventilated attics and non-ventilated semi-conditioned attics sealed with open-cell and with closed-cell spray polyurethane foam insulation. Moisture pin measurements made in the sheathing and absolute humidity sensor data from inside the foam and from the attic air show that moisture is being stored in the foam. The moisture in the foam diffuses to and from the sheathing dependent on the pressure gradient at the foam-sheathing interface which is driven by the irradiance and night-sky radiation. Ventilated attics in the same hot, humid climate showed less moisture movement in the sheathing than those sealed with either open- or closed-cell spray foam. In the ventilated attics the relative humidity drops as the attic air warms; however, the opposite was observed in the sealed attics. Peaks in measured relative humidity in excess of 80 90% and occasionally near saturation (i.e., 100%) were observed from solar noon till about 8 PM on hot, humid days. The conditioned space of the test facility is heated and cooled by an air-to-air heat pump. Therefore the partial pressure of the indoor air during peak irradiance is almost always less than that observed in the sealed attics. Field data will be presented to bring to light the critical humidity control issues in sealed attics exposed to hot, humid climates.

  1. Modification of input datasets for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction based on large scale climatic indices and weather generator

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Daňhelka, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 528, September (2015), s. 720-733 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : sea sonal forecasting * ESP * large-scale climate * weather generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.043, year: 2015

  2. Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

    1999-10-01

    We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

  3. Using Content-Aligned Assessments to Identify Weaknesses in Students' Understanding of Fundamental Weather and Climate Ideas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertheim, J.; Willard, S.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing interest in ensuring that citizens understand weather and climate sufficiently to make informed decisions, and these topics are gaining increased attention in K-12 education. The National Research Council recently released A Framework for K-12 Science Education with the expectation that U.S. 12th graders must have a sophisticated knowledge of climate change, including the role of deep time, variability, and computer modeling in the prediction of climate impacts on the planet and human activity. This requirement demands that students extend their understanding of climate change to the past and future, but it is important to recognize that many students know little about prerequisite ideas, such as daily and annual weather and climate processes, and this problem must be addressed prior to introducing the complexities of the climate system. In order to diagnose weaknesses in students' foundational understanding of the complex climate system, we primarily assessed a middle school (MS)-level understanding of the core elements of the system, in addition to a high school (HS)-level understanding of seasons. We described grade appropriate, coherent, functioning conceptual models for each targeted idea, and decomposed them into explicit learning goals. We then applied Project 2061's rigorous item development procedure to produce 235 high-quality, misconception-based multiple choice test items. These items were tested with a national sample of approximately 20,000 students, grades 6-12, in two phases (Spring 2010 & 2011). Here we report results from the second phase, including items targeting knowledge about convection, daily and annual air temperature patterns, factors that influence air temperature, and seasons. Overall, HS students outperformed MS students on these items by an average of only 3% (MS:31% correct; HS:34% correct). These data show a few strong misconceptions (e.g., 47% of students think that the North Pole is always angled toward the Sun

  4. Multiscale Geophysical Characterization of Weathering Fronts Along a Climate and Vegetation Gradient in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Bo, I.; Klotzsche, A.; Schaller, M.; Ehlers, T. A.; Vereecken, H.; Van Der Kruk, J.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding how weathering processes act is non-trivial. Direct methods are spatially restricted, time consuming, and expensive. Here, we show how to upscale and extend the point-scale layering information from dug pits deploying a multi-scale geophysical approach. Many studies have recently shown the potential of geophysics in bridging the gap between scales, although limited to specific environments. We applied Electromagnetic Induction (EMI), Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), and Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) in four study areas separated by 1600 km in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera, and ranging from the arid Atacama Desert in the north and temperate forests in the south. The main goals were to understand how the soil profile and the weathering front vary: 1) from north to south along these gradients, 2) in north- and south-facing hillslopes, and 3) within a single hillslope. We measured at the large-scale (EMI), at the profile scale (EMI, ERT, and GPR), and at the point-scale (GPR). The total length of the EMI, GPR and ERT measurements was 28.95 km, 3.67 km, and 0.27 km. GPR wide angle reflection and refraction measurements were the link between ground-truth data and geophysics. The low electrical conductivity (EC) regime limited the applicability of the EMI and ERT. However, still relative patterns of apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) from EMI could be used. Generally, ECa increased moving uphill and from north to south. Due to the low EC values in the study areas, GPR could image several reflections up to 8 m depth partially confirmed by the pit layering. Thicker layers on GPR profiles were present going from north to south and in the bottom-mid part of the hillslopes, as confirmed by ground-truth data. The main recognizable feature in the GPR profiles was the transition between B and C horizon. Here, hyperbolic-shape signatures were observed that probably were related to the presence of heterogeneities. The soil pits showed deeper layers in

  5. Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models: COST Action ES0905 Final Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun–Ichi Yano

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The research network “Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models” was organized with European funding (COST Action ES0905 for the period of 2010–2014. Its extensive brainstorming suggests how the subgrid-scale parameterization problem in atmospheric modeling, especially for convection, can be examined and developed from the point of view of a robust theoretical basis. Our main cautions are current emphasis on massive observational data analyses and process studies. The closure and the entrainment–detrainment problems are identified as the two highest priorities for convection parameterization under the mass–flux formulation. The need for a drastic change of the current European research culture as concerns policies and funding in order not to further deplete the visions of the European researchers focusing on those basic issues is emphasized.

  6. DOE Workshop; Pan-Gass Conference on the Representation of Atmospheric Processes in Weather and Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, Hugh [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-11-12

    This is the first meeting of the whole new GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project that has been formed from the merger of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Project and the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS). As such, this meeting will play a major role in energizing GEWEX work in the area of atmospheric parameterizations of clouds, convection, stable boundary layers, and aerosol-cloud interactions for the numerical models used for weather and climate projections at both global and regional scales. The representation of these processes in models is crucial to GEWEX goals of improved prediction of the energy and water cycles at both weather and climate timescales. This proposal seeks funds to be used to cover incidental and travel expenses for U.S.-based graduate students and early career scientists (i.e., within 5 years of receiving their highest degree). We anticipate using DOE funding to support 5-10 people. We will advertise the availability of these funds by providing a box to check for interested participants on the online workshop registration form. We will also send a note to our participants' mailing lists reminding them that the funds are available and asking senior scientists to encourage their more junior colleagues to participate. All meeting participants are encouraged to submit abstracts for oral or poster presentations. The science organizing committee (see below) will base funding decisions on the relevance and quality of these abstracts, with preference given to under-represented populations (especially women and minorities) and to early career scientists being actively mentored at the meeting (e.g. students or postdocs attending the meeting with their adviser).

  7. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  8. Improving high impact weather and climate prediction for societal resilience in Subtropical South America: Proyecto RELAMPAGO-CACTI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesbitt, S. W.; Salio, P. V.; Varble, A.; Trapp, R. J.; Roberts, R. R.; Dominguez, F.; Machado, L.; Saulo, C.

    2017-12-01

    Subtropical South America is host to many types of weather and climate hazards. The convective systems that initiate near and apart from the complex terrain of the Andes and Sierras de Córdoba are by many measures the most intense in the world, producing hazards such as damaging winds, hail, tornadoes, extreme and unusual lightning behavior, and flash and riverine flooding. These systems are modulated by interannual, intraseasonal, and synoptic drivers, however multi-scale models suffer from extreme biases in low level temperature and humidity due to their poor representation of organized convection and representation of convection near complex terrain, which hampers predictive skill of relevant processes across all timescales. To address these cross-cutting issues, we have proposed a large, multi-agency international field campaign called RELAMPAGO-CACTI, which will address key gaps in physical process understanding in the production of convective storms in this region. RELAMPAGO (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations), funded by NSF/NOAA/NASA/MinCyT/FAPESP, will be a 24-month hydrological-meteorological field campaign, with an intensive observing period 1 Nov - 15 Dec 2018 in the near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), the Andes foothills near Mendoza, and the region near São Borja, Brazil. A complementary funded 7-month DOE field campaign called Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI), which will focus on detailed observations of cloud and aerosol lifecycle near the SDC while an intensive observing period featuring aircraft observations will match RELAMPAGO's. While collecting the observations will enhance knowledge of the processes acting to modulate extremes in the region, a coordinated modeling effort will aim to evaluate coupled weather, climate, and hydrologic models using RELAMPAGO-CACTI observations. In addition, partnerships with the Servicio Meteorol

  9. In a warming climate, just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Landman7_2011.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 3538 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Landman7_2011.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 In a warming climate... at UK Met Office N9 members SA Japan UKUSA USA Brazil* SA SASA * IBSA-Ocean In use Near future Far future VCM/UTCM ENSEMBLES Strong anthropogenically forced warming trends have been observed over southern Africa and are projected...

  10. Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubuis, E.

    2010-01-01

    The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

  11. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

  12. The influence of regional urbanization and abnormal weather conditions on the processes of human climatic adaptation on mountain resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artamonova, M.; Golitsyn, G.; Senik, I.; Safronov, A.; Babyakin, A.; Efimenko, N.; Povolotskaya, N.; Topuriya, D.; Chalaya, E.

    2012-04-01

    This work is a further development in the study of weather pathogenic index (WPI) and negative influence of urbanization processes on the state of people's health with adaptation disorder. This problem is socially significant. According to the data of the WHO, in the world there are from 20 to 45% of healthy people and from 40 to 80% of people with chronic diseases who suffer from the raised meteosensitivity. As a result of our researches of meteosensitivity of people during their short-duration on mountain resorts there were used negative adaptive reactions (NAR) under 26 routine tests, stress-reactions under L.H. Garkavi's hemogram, vegetative indices, tests of neuro-vascular reactivity, signs of imbalance of vegetative and neurohumoral regulation according to the data of biorhythm fractal analysis and sudden aggravations of diseases (SAD) as an indicator of negative climatic and urbanization influence. In 2010-2011 the Caucasian mountain resorts were having long periods of climatic anomalies, strengthening of anthropogenic emissions and forest fires when record-breaking high waves of NAR and SAD were noticed. There have also been specified indices ranks of weather pathogenicity from results of comparison of health characteristics with indicators of synoptico-dynamic processes according to Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); air ionization N+, N-, N+/N- spectra of aerosol particles (the size from 500 to 20000 nanometers) and concentrations of chemically active gases (O3, NO, NO2, ), volatile phytoorganic substances in the surface atmosphere, bactericidal characteristics of vegetation by criterion χ2 (not above 0,05). It has allowed us to develop new physiological optimum borders, norm and pessimum, to classify emergency ecologo-weather situations, to develop a new techniques of their forecasting and prevention of meteopathic reactions with meteosensitive patients (Method of treatment and the early (emergency) and planned prevention meteopatic reactions

  13. The radiogenic and stable Sr isotope geochemistry of basalt weathering in Iceland: Role of hydrothermal calcite and implications for long-term climate regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, M. Grace; Jacobson, Andrew D.

    2017-10-01

    Several studies have examined the geochemistry of Icelandic rivers to quantify the relationship between basalt weathering and long-term climate regulation. Recent research has suggested that the chemical weathering of hydrothermal and metamorphic calcite contributes significant quantities of HCO3- to the Icelandic riverine flux (Jacobson et al., 2015). Because the HCO3- derives from volcanic CO2 that was sequestered in mineral form prior to atmospheric injection, the strength of the basalt weathering feedback occurring in Iceland may be lower than previously realized. To test these hypotheses, we analyzed the radiogenic and stable Sr isotope composition (87Sr/86Sr and δ88/86Sr) of the same suite of water, rock, and mineral samples as examined in Jacobson et al. (2015), and we developed a simple model of the long-term C cycle that considers the transformation of volcanic CO2 to HCO3- during subsurface silicate weathering, which is a precursor to hydrothermal calcite formation. Interpretations based on 87Sr/86Sr and Ca/Sr ratios suggest that conservative, three-component mixing between basalt, calcite, and atmospheric deposition adequately explains river geochemistry. On average, the δ88/86Sr values of glacial and non-glacial rivers (0.414‰ and 0.388‰, respectively) are generally higher than those for basalt (0.276‰); however, calcite δ88/86Sr values (0.347‰) are also higher than those for basalt and span the range of riverine values. Thus, riverine δ88/86Sr values are also consistent three-component mixing between basalt, calcite, and atmospheric deposition. Isotopic fractionation is not required to explain riverine trends. Finally, model equations for the long-term C cycle demonstrate that subsurface silicate weathering reduces the magnitude of the volcanic CO2 degassing flux, which in turn causes the atmosphere to stabilize at lower pCO2 values compared to the case where no subsurface silicate weathering occurs. However, the proportion of the net

  14. Osmium isotope perturbations during the Pliensbachian-Toarcian (Early Jurassic): Relationships between volcanism, weathering, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Percival, Lawrence; Cohen, Anthony; Davies, Marc; Dickson, Alexander; Jenkyns, Hugh; Hesselbo, Stephen; Mather, Tamsin; Xu, Weimu; Storm, Marisa

    2016-04-01

    weathering, and note that both excursions coincide with negative excursions in δ13C (indicating a massive release of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere) and positive excursions in Hg/TOC (indicating enhanced volcanic activity associated with the Karoo-Ferrar LIP). These concurrent changes suggest that carbon-emissions related to the Karoo-Ferrar may have aided climate warming, leading to the enhanced weathering and marine anoxia recorded in Toarcian strata. Additionally, we record a potential lag in the recovery of 187Os/188Os compared to δ13C; such a lag would support previous hypotheses that enhanced weathering contributed towards draw-down of excess atmospheric carbon, alleviating the Toarcian warming. Finally, our recording of a second (stratigraphically lower) excursion in Os isotopes, coincident with previously recorded excursions, indicates that major climate change during the Toarcian in fact began, albeit to a lesser degree, at the Pl-To boundary, rather than being restricted solely to the T-OAE.

  15. Extending to seasonal scales the current usage of short range weather forecasts and climate projections for water management in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Camino, Ernesto; Voces, José; Sánchez, Eroteida; Navascues, Beatriz; Pouget, Laurent; Roldan, Tamara; Gómez, Manuel; Cabello, Angels; Comas, Pau; Pastor, Fernando; Concepción García-Gómez, M.°; José Gil, Juan; Gil, Delfina; Galván, Rogelio; Solera, Abel

    2016-04-01

    This presentation, first, briefly describes the current use of weather forecasts and climate projections delivered by AEMET for water management in Spain. The potential use of seasonal climate predictions for water -in particular dams- management is then discussed more in-depth, using a pilot experience carried out by a multidisciplinary group coordinated by AEMET and DG for Water of Spain. This initiative is being developed in the framework of the national implementation of the GFCS and the European project, EUPORIAS. Among the main components of this experience there are meteorological and hydrological observations, and an empirical seasonal forecasting technique that provides an ensemble of water reservoir inflows. These forecasted inflows feed a prediction model for the dam state that has been adapted for this purpose. The full system is being tested retrospectively, over several decades, for selected water reservoirs located in different Spanish river basins. The assessment includes an objective verification of the probabilistic seasonal forecasts using standard metrics, and the evaluation of the potential social and economic benefits, with special attention to drought and flooding conditions. The methodology of implementation of these seasonal predictions in the decision making process is being developed in close collaboration with final users participating in this pilot experience.

  16. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Variability Provide a Lens to How Shallow Lakes May Respond to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Havens

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Shallow lakes, particularly those in low-lying areas of the subtropics, are highly vulnerable to changes in climate associated with global warming. Many of these lakes are in tropical cyclone strike zones and they experience high inter-seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall and runoff. Both of those factors strongly modulate sediment–water column interactions, which play a critical role in shallow lake nutrient cycling, water column irradiance characteristics and cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (CyanoHAB dynamics. We illustrate this with three examples, using long-term (15–25 years datasets on water quality and plankton from three shallow lakes: Lakes Okeechobee and George (Florida, USA and Lake Taihu (China. Okeechobee and Taihu have been impacted repeatedly by tropical cyclones that have resulted in large amounts of runoff and sediment resuspension, and resultant increases in dissolved nutrients in the water column. In both cases, when turbidity declined, major blooms of the toxic CyanoHAB Microcystis aeruginosa occurred over large areas of the lakes. In Lake George, periods of high rainfall resulted in high dissolved color, reduced irradiance, and increased water turnover rates which suppress blooms, whereas in dry periods with lower water color and water turnover rates there were dense cyanobacteria blooms. We identify a suite of factors which, from our experience, will determine how a particular shallow lake will respond to a future with global warming, flashier rainfall, prolonged droughts and stronger tropical cyclones.

  17. Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Stephenson, D. B.

    2011-01-01

    he skill in predicting spatially varying weather/climate maps depends on the definition of the measure of similarity between the maps. Under the justifiable approximation that the anomaly maps are distributed multinormally, it is shown analytically that the choice of weighting metric, used in defining the anomaly correlation between spatial maps, can change the resulting probability distribution of the correlation coefficient. The estimate of the numbers of degrees of freedom based on the var...

  18. How weather impacts the forced climate response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States)

    2011-12-15

    The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870-1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control. (orig.)

  19. Initiation of soil formation in weathered sulfidic Cu-Pb-Zn tailings under subtropical and semi-arid climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Fang; Dalal, Ram; Huang, Longbin

    2018-08-01

    Field evidence has been scarce about soil (or technosol) formation and direct phytostabilization of base metal mine tailings under field conditions. The present study evaluated key attributes of soil formation in weathered and neutral Cu-Pb-Zn tailings subject to organic amendment (WC: woodchips) and colonization of pioneer native plant species (mixed native woody and grass plant species) in a 2.5-year field trial under subtropical and semi-arid climatic conditions. Key soil indicators of engineered soil formation process were characterized, including organic carbon fractions, aggregation, microbial community and key enzymatic activities. The majority (64-87%) of the OC was stabilized in microaggregate or organo-mineral complexes in the amended tailings. The levels of OC and water soluble OC were elevated by 2-3 folds across the treatments, with the highest level in the treatment of WC and plant colonization (WC+P). Specifically, the WC+P treatment increased the proportion of water stable macroaggregates. Plants further contributed to the N rich organic matter in the tailings, favouring organo-mineral interactions and organic stabilization. Besides, the plants played a major role in boosting microbial biomass and activities in the treated tailings. WC and plants enhanced the contents of organic carbon (OC) associated with aggregates (e.g., physically protected OC), formation of water-stable aggregates (e.g., micro and macroaggregates), chemical buffering capacity (e.g., cation exchange capacity). Microbial community and enzymatic activities were also stimulated in the amended tailings. The present results showed that the formation of functional technosol was initiated in the eco-engineered and weathered Cu-Pb-Zn tailings under field conditions for direct phytostabilization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. The Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process – Its discovery and vital importance for weather and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trude Storelvmo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process refers to the rapid growth of ice crystals at the expense of surrounding cloud droplets, which frequently occurs in atmospheric mixed-phase clouds. The process is a result of the difference in saturation vapor pressures with respect to liquid and ice, and may in some circumstances lead to abrupt and complete cloud glaciation at temperatures between −40 °C and 0 °C in the Earth's atmosphere. The process is named after three eminent scientists who were active in the first half of the 20th century, among them being German meteorologist Walter Findeisen (1909–1945. In his classical paper published in 1938, Findeisen described the contemporary understanding of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process and other key cloud microphysical processes. Here, we compare the understanding of the aforementioned processes at the time with that of the present, and find that they are remarkably similar. We also discuss how the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process is implemented in state-of-the-art numerical models of the atmosphere, and highlight its importance for both weather and climate.

  1. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  2. Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E.; Dorigo, Wouter A.; Quiring, Steven M.; Ford, Trenton W.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Ek, Michael B.; Koster, Randal Dean; hide

    2016-01-01

    Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses out perform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

  3. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  4. Evaluating the effects of historical land cover change on summertime weather and climate in New Jersey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wichansky, Paul Stuart

    The 19th-century agrarian landscape of New Jersey (NJ) and the surrounding region has been extensively transformed to the present-day land cover by urbanization, reforestation, and localized areas of deforestation. This study used a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model to investigate the sensitivity of the warm season climate of NJ to these land cover changes. Reconstructed 1880s-era and present-day land cover datasets were used as surface boundary conditions for a set of simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Three-member ensembles with historical and present-day land cover were compared to examine the sensitivity of surface air and dewpoint temperatures, rainfall, the individual components of the surface energy budget, horizontal and vertical winds, and the vertical profiles of temperature and humidity to these land cover changes. Mean temperatures for the present-day landscape were 0.3-0.6°C warmer than for the historical landscape over a considerable portion of NJ and the surrounding region, with daily maximum temperatures at least 1.0°C warmer over some of the highly urbanized locations. Reforested regions in the present-day landscape, however, showed a slight cooling. Surface warming was generally associated with repartitioning of net radiation from latent to sensible heat flux, and conversely for cooling. Reduced evapotranspiration from much of the present-day land surface led to dewpoint temperature decreases of 0.3-0.6°C. While urbanization was accompanied by strong surface albedo decreases and increases in net shortwave radiation, reforestation and potential changes in forest composition have generally increased albedos and also enhanced landscape heterogeneity. The increased deciduousness of forests may have further reduced net downward longwave radiation. These land cover changes have modified boundary-layer dynamics by increasing low-level convergence and upper-level divergence in the interior of NJ, especially

  5. Basic causes of amplitude modulation in climatic/weather parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1987-11-01

    The continuous interaction between the Earth's spinning motion and energy from the Sun gives rise to some (heat) energy oscillations in the Earth-atmosphere system (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986a; 1986b). Recent results of large scale analysis of East African climatic records have proved that these oscillations significantly link the Sun to climatic/weather variations by systematically modulating key climatic/weather parameters like rainfall and air temperature (Njau, 1987a; 1987b; 1987c; 1987e; 1987f). In this paper, we re-develop the latter proof using a very different approach based upon theoretical analysis. The analysis has confirmed a general law suggested earlier (Njau, 1987d), that, with an exception of the diurnal cycle, any permanent cycle in the net solar energy incident upon a given part of the Earth-Atmosphere system gives rise to a quasi-permanent cycle whose period is approximately twice that of the former. Quasi-biennial as well as double sunspot cycles are shown to be a possible result of this general law. (author). 35 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  6. Process-based modeling of silicate mineral weathering responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwart, Steven A.; Berg, Astrid; Beerling, David J.

    2009-12-01

    A mathematical model describes silicate mineral weathering processes in modern soils located in the boreal coniferous region of northern Europe. The process model results demonstrate a stabilizing biological feedback mechanism between atmospheric CO2 levels and silicate weathering rates as is generally postulated for atmospheric evolution. The process model feedback response agrees within a factor of 2 of that calculated by a weathering feedback function of the type generally employed in global geochemical carbon cycle models of the Earth's Phanerozoic CO2 history. Sensitivity analysis of parameter values in the process model provides insight into the key mechanisms that influence the strength of the biological feedback to weathering. First, the process model accounts for the alkalinity released by weathering, whereby its acceleration stabilizes pH at values that are higher than expected. Although the process model yields faster weathering with increasing temperature, because of activation energy effects on mineral dissolution kinetics at warmer temperature, the mineral dissolution rate laws utilized in the process model also result in lower dissolution rates at higher pH values. Hence, as dissolution rates increase under warmer conditions, more alkalinity is released by the weathering reaction, helping maintain higher pH values thus stabilizing the weathering rate. Second, the process model yields a relatively low sensitivity of soil pH to increasing plant productivity. This is due to more rapid decomposition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) under warmer conditions. Because DOC fluxes strongly influence the soil water proton balance and pH, this increased decomposition rate dampens the feedback between productivity and weathering. The process model is most sensitive to parameters reflecting soil structure; depth, porosity, and water content. This suggests that the role of biota to influence these characteristics of the weathering profile is as important, if not

  7. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

  8. The Climate and its Impacts on deterioration and weathering rate of EI-Nadura Temple in El- Kharga Oasis, Western Desert of Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismael, Hossam

    2015-04-01

    Undoubtedly, El-Kharga Oasis monumental sites are considered an important part of our world's cultural heritage in the South Western Desert of Egypt. These sites are scattered on the floor of the oasis representing ancient civilizations. The Roman stone monuments in Kharga represent cultural heritage of an outstanding universal value. Such those monuments have suffered weathering deterioration. There are various elements which affect the weathering process of stone monuments: climate conditions, shapes of cultural heritages, exposed time periods, terrains, and vegetation around them, etc. Among these, climate conditions are the most significant factor affecting the deterioration of Archeological sites in Egypt. El- Kharga Oasis belongs administratively to the New Valley Governorate. It is located in the southern part of the western desert of Egypt, lies between latitudes 22°30'14" and 26°00'00" N, and between 30°27'00" and 30°47'00" E. The area of El Kharga Oasis covers about 7500 square kilometers. Pilot studies were carried out on the EI-Nadura Temple, composed of sandstones originating from the great sand sea. The major objective of this study is to monitor and measure the weathering features and the weathering rate affecting the building stones forming El-Nadora Roman building rocks in cubic cm. To achieve these aims, the present study used analysis of climatic data such as annual and seasonal solar radiation, Monthly average number of hours of sunshine, maximum and minimum air temperatures, wind speed, which have obtained from actual field measurements and data Meteorological Authority of El-Kharga station for the period 1977 to 2010 (33 years), and from the period 1941-2050 (110 years) as a long term of temperature data. Several samples were collected and examined by polarizing microscopy (PLM), X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray analysis system (SEM-EDX). The results were in

  9. The effect of weather on mood, productivity, and frequency of emotional crisis in a temperate continental climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnston, A. G.

    1988-06-01

    A group of 62 mostly university student subjects kept structured diaries of their feelings and their productivity for six weeks in Illinois in early autumn. During the same period, daily frequency of telephone calls to a crisis intervention service in the same community was monitored, and complete daily weather data for the vicinity were provided by a local meteorological research facility. Major findings are as follows. The weather appears to influence mood and productivity, but only to a smallextent compared with the aggregate of all other controlling factors. Males show a relatively stronger effect than females. Psychologically troubled people generally appear to be more affected by weather than university students. The students and the crisis intervention service clients with “mild” problems tend to be stressed more when the weather is unstable, cloudy, warm and humid, and least stressed during sunny, dry, cool weather with rising barometric pressure. The crisis service clients with “severe” problems react oppositely to these two weather types. The meaning of these and other results and the strengths and weaknesses of this study's design are discussed.

  10. ENSO regimes and the late 1970's climate shift: The role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Kane, Terence J.; Matear, Richard J.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Oke, Peter R.

    2014-01-01

    South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime transition preceded a period of strong and sustained El Nino events. Using an ocean general circulation model forced by the constituent mechanical and thermodynamic components of the reanalysed atmosphere we show that the late 1970's transition coincided with the arrival of a large-scale, subsurface cold and fresh water anomaly in the central tropical Pacific. An ocean reanalysis for the period 1990–2007 that assimilates subsurface Argo, XBT and CTD data, reveals that disturbances occur due to the subduction of negative surface salinity anomalies from near 30° S, 100° W which are advected along the σ=25–26 kgm −3 isopycnal surfaces. These anomalies take, on average, seven years to reach the central equatorial Pacific where they may substantially perturb the thermocline before the remnants ultimately ventilate in the region of the western Pacific warm pool. Positive (warm–salty) disturbances, known to occur due to late winter diapycnal mixing and isopycnal outcropping, arise due to both subduction of subtropical mode waters and subsurface injection. On reaching the equatorial band (10° S–0° S) these disturbances tend to deepen the thermocline reducing the model's ENSO. In contrast the emergence of negative (cold–fresh) disturbances at the equator are associated with a shoaling of the thermocline and El Nino events. Process studies are used to show that the generation and advection of anomalous density compensated thermocline disturbances critically depend on stochastic forcing of the intrinsic ocean by weather. We further show that in the absence of the inter-annual component of the atmosphere

  11. Communicating and managing change during extreme weather events: promising practices for responding to urgent and emergent climate threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Tim L

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios.

  12. KSC Weather and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin

    2016-01-01

    This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

  13. Conclusion to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John E. Hay

    2016-03-01

    The papers in this Special Issue have shown the nature of the scientific and related challenges, the progress made to date, and the challenges, opportunities and constraints yet to be addressed. They have contributed to increased understanding of where, how and why such events manifest themselves, now and into the future. Such insights increase the capacity to manage the risks associated with these events, and thereby reduce the consequences that society might otherwise have suffered.

  14. Exploring clouds, weather, climate, and modeling using bilingual content and activities from the Windows to the Universe program and the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, S. Q.; Johnson, R. M.; Randall, D.; Denning, S.; Russell, R.; Gardiner, L.; Hatheway, B.; Genyuk, J.; Bergman, J.

    2008-12-01

    The need for improving the representation of cloud processes in climate models has been one of the most important limitations of the reliability of climate-change simulations. Now in its third year, the National Science Foundation-funded Center for Multi-scale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP) at Colorado State University is addressing this problem through a revolutionary new approach to representing cloud processes on their native scales, including the cloud-scale interaction processes that are active in cloud systems. CMMAP has set ambitious education and human-resource goals to share basic information about the atmosphere, clouds, weather, climate, and modeling with diverse K-12 and public audiences through its affiliation with the Windows to the Universe (W2U) program at University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). W2U web pages are written at three levels in English and Spanish. This information targets learners at all levels, educators, and families who seek to understand and share resources and information about the nature of weather and the climate system, and career role models from related research fields. This resource can also be helpful to educators who are building bridges in the classroom between the sciences, the arts, and literacy. Visitors to the W2U's CMMAP web portal can access a beautiful new clouds image gallery; information about each cloud type and the atmospheric processes that produce them; a Clouds in Art interactive; collections of weather-themed poetry, art, and myths; links to games and puzzles for children; and extensive classroom- ready resources and activities for K-12 teachers. Biographies of CMMAP scientists and graduate students are featured. Basic science concepts important to understanding the atmosphere, such as condensation, atmosphere pressure, lapse rate, and more have been developed, as well as 'microworlds' that enable students to interact with experimental tools while building fundamental knowledge

  15. Doppler Radar and Analysis for Climate Model Verification and Numerical Weather Prediction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Qin

    1998-01-01

    ... (Qiu and Xu, 1996, Mon. Wea. Rev., 1132-1144). The LS method was further upgraded to including background wind fields and used to improve the initial condition for the ARPS model's short-term prediction...

  16. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

  17. Observations of Space Weather and Space Climate Over the Past 15 Years From SABER (And Longer!)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mlynczak, Marty; Hunt, Linda; Russell, James M., III

    2016-01-01

    The global infrared (IR) energy budget of the thermosphere has been reconstructed back 70 years (to 1947). IR cooling, integrated over a solar cycle, is relatively constant over the 5 complete cycles (19 -23) studied. Result implies that solar energy (particles and photons) has similar, small (< 7%) variation from one cycle to next. From Earth's upper atmosphere perspective, solar cycles are really more similar than different, over their length. No consistent relationship between peak of IR cooling and sunspot number peak. Results submitted to GRL 8/2016.

  18. Netherlands Antilles and French West Indies. Section 23. Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    1965-05-01

    srpport, and veloped for use in the tropic, would provide protection thealements myeound inrthe Subsections on Air, against Inscts wherever food is being...oi I𔃾 it.( halal .................... 1 t 01 2 at Wra ol Illioull ...................... .. in 09 011 47 ,7K (Iroot Sint Jorlm ................ 13 (I

  19. The significance of climate change in the Netherlands. An analysis of historical and future trends (1901-2020) in weather conditions, weather extremes and temperature-related impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visser, H.

    2005-07-01

    A rigorous statistical analysis reveals changes in Dutch climate that are statistically significant over the last century. Annually averaged temperatures have increased by 1.5 about 0.5 degrees Centigrade; the number of summer days has roughly doubled from 14 about 5 to 27 about 9 days; annual precipitation has increased by 120 about 100 mm; and the number of extremely wet days has increased by about 40%, from 19 about 3 to 26 about 3 days. Several other changes in Dutch climate, such as spring temperatures rising more rapidly than winter temperatures, the increase of the coldest temperature in each year by 0.9 degrees Centigrade and the annual maximum day sum of precipitation, turn out to be not (yet) statistically significant. The changes in Dutch climate have already led to several statistically significant impacts. The length of the growing season has increased by nearly a month, and the number of heating-degree days, a measure for the energy needed for the heating of houses and buildings, has decreased by 14 about 5%. Projections of future temperature increase in 2020 based on the statistical analysis closely resemble projections based on climate models: temperatures continue to increase from 10.4 about 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 2003 to 10.7 about 0.6 degrees Centigrade in 2010 and 11.1 about 1.0 degrees Centigrade in 2020. The energy needed for heating of houses and buildings is expected to decrease further. This warming effect is expected to lower projections of future Dutch greenhouse-gas emissions by 3.5 Mton CO2 equivalents, which is relevant in the context of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, over the course of the 20th century the chance on an 'Elfstedentocht', an outdoor skating event in the Netherlands, has decreased from once every five years to once every ten years. Even though this impact change is not yet statistically significant, it resides 'on the edge' of significance: within a few years more evidence may

  20. A 17-year Record of Meteorological Observations Across the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in Southern Patagonia, Chile, Related to Synoptic Weather Types and Climate Modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie S. Weidemann

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The network of long-term meteorological observations in Southernmost Patagonia is still sparse but crucial to improve our understanding of climatic variability, in particular in the more elevated and partially glaciated Southernmost Andes. Here we present a unique 17-year meteorological record (2000–2016 of four automatic weather stations (AWS across the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap (53°S in the Southernmost Andes (Chile and the conventional weather station Jorge Schythe of the Instituto de la Patagonia in Punta Arenas for comparison. We revisit the relationship between in situ observations and large-scale climate models as well as mesoscale weather patterns. For this purpose, a 37-year record of ERA Interim Reanalysis data has been used to compute a weather type classification based on a hierarchical correlation-based leader algorithm. The orographic perturbation on the predominantly westerly airflow determines the hydroclimatic response across the mountain range, leading to significant west-east gradients of precipitation, air temperature and humidity. Annual precipitation sums heavily drop within only tens of kilometers from ~7,500 mm a−1 to less than 800 mm a−1. The occurrence of high precipitation events of up to 620 mm in 5 days and wet spells of up to 61 consecutive days underscore the year-around wet conditions in the Southernmost Andes. Given the strong link between large-scale circulation and orographically controlled precipitation, the synoptic-scale weather conditions largely determine the precipitation and temperature variability on all time scales. Major synoptic weather types with distinct low-pressure cells in the Weddell Sea or Bellingshausen Sea, causing a prevailing southwesterly, northwesterly or westerly airflow, determine the weather conditions in Southernmost Patagonia during 68% of the year. At Gran Campo Nevado, more than 80% of extreme precipitation events occur during the persistence of these weather types. The

  1. Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

    2012-01-01

    Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process...

  2. Origins of forecast skill of weather and climate events on verifiable time scales

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available specific location between the predictor or the predictand and their respective canonical component time series (rj and sk) Barnett, T. P., and Preisendorfer, R. W. 1987: Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States air...

  3. Description of Mixed-Phase Clouds in Weather Forecast and Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    deficits, leading to freeze-up of both sea ice and the ocean surface. The surface albedo and processes impacting the energy content of the upper ocean...appear key to producing a temporal difference be- tween the freeze-up of the sea - ice surface and adjacent open water. While synoptic conditions, atmos...Leck, 2013: Cloud and boundary layer interactions over the Arctic sea - ice in late summer, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 13191-13244, doi

  4. Primary Geography in Australia: Pre-Service Primary Teachers' Understandings of Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Rod

    2015-01-01

    Recent curriculum introductions and revisions on a global scale have highlighted the importance of primary teachers' content knowledge in geography and the lack of research in this area (Catling, 2014). This has become a particular focus in Australia with the introduction of the "Australian Curriculum: Geography" in 2013 and the…

  5. Review Pages: Planning for Livable and Safe Cities: Extreme Weather Events Caused by Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gennaro Angiello

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the relationship between urban planning and mobility management, TeMA has gradually expanded the view of the covered topics, always remaining in the groove of rigorous scientific in-depth analysis. During the last two years a particular attention has been paid on the Smart Cities theme and on the different meanings that come with it. The last section of the journal is formed by the Review Pages. They have different aims: to inform on the problems, trends and evolutionary processes; to investigate on the paths by highlighting the advanced relationships among apparently distant disciplinary fields; to explore the interaction’s areas, experiences and potential applications; to underline interactions, disciplinary developments but also, if present, defeats and setbacks. Inside the journal the Review Pages have the task of stimulating as much as possible the circulation of ideas and the discovery of new points of view. For this reason the section is founded on a series of basic’s references, required for the identification of new and more advanced interactions. These references are the research, the planning acts, the actions and the applications, analysed and investigated both for their ability to give a systematic response to questions concerning the urban and territorial planning, and for their attention to aspects such as the environmental sustainability and the innovation in the practices. For this purpose the Review Pages are formed by five sections (Web Resources; Books; Laws; Urban Practices; News and Events, each of which examines a specific aspect of the broader information storage of interest for TeMA

  6. The use of imprecise processing to improve accuracy in weather and climate prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Düben, Peter D., E-mail: dueben@atm.ox.ac.uk [University of Oxford, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics (United Kingdom); McNamara, Hugh [University of Oxford, Mathematical Institute (United Kingdom); Palmer, T.N. [University of Oxford, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics (United Kingdom)

    2014-08-15

    The use of stochastic processing hardware and low precision arithmetic in atmospheric models is investigated. Stochastic processors allow hardware-induced faults in calculations, sacrificing bit-reproducibility and precision in exchange for improvements in performance and potentially accuracy of forecasts, due to a reduction in power consumption that could allow higher resolution. A similar trade-off is achieved using low precision arithmetic, with improvements in computation and communication speed and savings in storage and memory requirements. As high-performance computing becomes more massively parallel and power intensive, these two approaches may be important stepping stones in the pursuit of global cloud-resolving atmospheric modelling. The impact of both hardware induced faults and low precision arithmetic is tested using the Lorenz '96 model and the dynamical core of a global atmosphere model. In the Lorenz '96 model there is a natural scale separation; the spectral discretisation used in the dynamical core also allows large and small scale dynamics to be treated separately within the code. Such scale separation allows the impact of lower-accuracy arithmetic to be restricted to components close to the truncation scales and hence close to the necessarily inexact parametrised representations of unresolved processes. By contrast, the larger scales are calculated using high precision deterministic arithmetic. Hardware faults from stochastic processors are emulated using a bit-flip model with different fault rates. Our simulations show that both approaches to inexact calculations do not substantially affect the large scale behaviour, provided they are restricted to act only on smaller scales. By contrast, results from the Lorenz '96 simulations are superior when small scales are calculated on an emulated stochastic processor than when those small scales are parametrised. This suggests that inexact calculations at the small scale could reduce

  7. The use of imprecise processing to improve accuracy in weather and climate prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Düben, Peter D.; McNamara, Hugh; Palmer, T.N.

    2014-01-01

    The use of stochastic processing hardware and low precision arithmetic in atmospheric models is investigated. Stochastic processors allow hardware-induced faults in calculations, sacrificing bit-reproducibility and precision in exchange for improvements in performance and potentially accuracy of forecasts, due to a reduction in power consumption that could allow higher resolution. A similar trade-off is achieved using low precision arithmetic, with improvements in computation and communication speed and savings in storage and memory requirements. As high-performance computing becomes more massively parallel and power intensive, these two approaches may be important stepping stones in the pursuit of global cloud-resolving atmospheric modelling. The impact of both hardware induced faults and low precision arithmetic is tested using the Lorenz '96 model and the dynamical core of a global atmosphere model. In the Lorenz '96 model there is a natural scale separation; the spectral discretisation used in the dynamical core also allows large and small scale dynamics to be treated separately within the code. Such scale separation allows the impact of lower-accuracy arithmetic to be restricted to components close to the truncation scales and hence close to the necessarily inexact parametrised representations of unresolved processes. By contrast, the larger scales are calculated using high precision deterministic arithmetic. Hardware faults from stochastic processors are emulated using a bit-flip model with different fault rates. Our simulations show that both approaches to inexact calculations do not substantially affect the large scale behaviour, provided they are restricted to act only on smaller scales. By contrast, results from the Lorenz '96 simulations are superior when small scales are calculated on an emulated stochastic processor than when those small scales are parametrised. This suggests that inexact calculations at the small scale could reduce computation and

  8. Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    R Barbero; J T Abatzoglou; E A Steel

    2014-01-01

    Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ¡­60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric...

  9. Sun-controlled spatial and time-dependent cycles in the climatic/weather system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1990-11-01

    We show, on the basis of meteorological records, that certain spatial and time-dependent cycles exist in the earth-atmosphere system (EAS). These cycles seem to be associated with sunspot cycles and hence have been referred to in the text as ''data-derived solar cycles''. Our analysis establishes three important characteristics of the data-derived solar cycles (DSC's). Firstly the crests and troughs of these data-derived solar cycles are mostly latitudinally aligned and have (zonal) spatial wavelengths greater than about 7 degrees of longitude. Secondly the DSC's have periods mostly lying between 6 years and 12 years. In certain stations, some DSC's coincide quite well with corresponding sunspot cycles. Thirdly the crests and troughs of the DSC's drift eastwards at speeds exceeding about 1.5 longitude degrees per year. Furthermore, these DSC's display peak-to-peak amplitudes of about 2 deg. C along East Africa. On the basis of earlier work and bearing in mind the considerable temperature-dependence of the stratospheric ozone layer, we predict existence of latitudinally aligned enhancement and depletion structures (corresponding to the DSC's) in the stratospheric ozone layer within cloudless midnight-to-predawn sectors. (author). 9 refs, 5 figs

  10. Forecast Based Financing for Managing Weather and Climate Risks to Reduce Potential Disaster Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is a critical window of time to reduce potential impacts of a disaster after a forecast for heightened risk is issued and before an extreme event occurs. The concept of Forecast-based Financing focuses on this window of opportunity. Through advanced preparation during system set-up, tailored methodologies are used to 1) analyze a range of potential extreme event forecasts, 2) identify emergency preparedness measures that can be taken when factoring in forecast lead time and inherent uncertainty and 3) develop standard operating procedures that are agreed on and tied to guaranteed funding sources to facilitate emergency measures led by the Red Cross or government actors when preparedness measures are triggered. This presentation will focus on a broad overview of the current state of theory and approaches used in developing a forecast-based financing systems - with a specific focus on hydrologic events, case studies of success and challenges in various contexts where this approach is being piloted, as well as what is on the horizon to be further explored and developed from a research perspective as the application of this approach continues to expand.

  11. Impacts of space weather and space climate on pipeline network operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trichtchenko, Larisa

    2014-05-01

    The geomagnetic fluctuations are accompanied by geo-electric (telluric) field and telluric currents at the surface of the Earth and in the pipelines. These currents interfere with pipeline corrosion protection, creating pipe-to-soil potential (PSP) fluctuations. It impacts pipeline operations in two ways. One is that non-disturbed "true" level of the protection is not known, which might lead to the wrong conclusions that a pipeline coating is damaged and digging out the section of the pipeline is needed. The other effect is changes in the electrical conditions in the pipeline-soil interface, compromising the corrosion protection and possibly causing enhancement of the corrosion. The global trend for construction of more pipelines in northern regions means placing them into areas where natural geomagnetic variations are larger and consequently telluric activity is more extreme, in comparison with pipelines located further south. This paper describes the solutions implemented as the result of the two projects done by NRCan researchers led by the author on request from pipeline companies. Two methods were proposed and implemented to address the problems. One is the statistical estimation of the telluric activity in the area of the planned pipelines. These statistical considerations then used as guidance in the design of corrosion protection systems to counteract the excessive corrosion. The other, to deal with the corrupted results during the pipeline surveys, is to forecast the geomagnetic storms for proper planning of the surveys. In addition, the developed telluric activity identification tool can be used in the analysis of the corrupted survey data.

  12. Weathering "A Climate of Unexpectation": Gender Equity and the Radcliffe Institute, 1960-1995.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenmann, Linda

    1995-01-01

    The evolution and role of the Radcliffe Institute for Independent Study, founded to provide year-long, part-time fellowships for women doctorates wishing to pursue independent scholarly or creative projects, are described. The program, which encourages applications from mothers whose intellectual work had been put on hold, is seen as one of the…

  13. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2018-01-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  14. Weather and Climate Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-09-01

    Company. Fantoli, A. (1954). / valori medi della temperatura in Libia. Bulletin of the Italian Geographical Society (Italian), Series. 8, 7, 59-71...Fantoli, A. (1958). La piu aha temperatura del mondo [The highest temperature in the world]. Revue of Aeronautical Meteorology (Italian), 18(3), 53

  15. The use of webcam images to determine tourist-climate aptitude: favourable weather types for sun and beach tourism on the Alicante coast (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarra, Emilio Martínez

    2011-05-01

    Climate has an obvious influence on tourism as a resource and as a location factor for tourist activities. Consequently, the tourist phenomenon in general is heavily controlled by meteorological conditions—in short, by the climate. In this article, the author proposes a set of weather types with which to establish the climate aptitude for sun and beach tourism. To determine these types, the density of use of one of the beaches with the lowest seasonality in continental Europe, the Levante Beach in Benidorm (Alicante, Spain), was analysed. Beach attendance was monitored using a webcam installed by the "Agencia Valenciana de Turismo". The relationship between the density of use of the lower and upper beach areas on the one hand, and meteorological variables on the other, allowed comfort (physiological equivalent temperature) and enjoyment (fractions of solar radiation) thresholds to be established. The appropriate hydric comfort values were obtained by comparing the ranges proposed by Besancenot in 1989 [Besancenot (1989) Clima et turismes. Massom, París] with numbers of visitors to the beach. The wind velocity and precipitation thresholds were selected following consultation with the literature and considering the climatic characteristics of the environment under analysis. Based on a combination of these thresholds, weather types suitable for this specific tourist activity are defined. Thus, this article presents a method for assessing the extent to which a day on the beach can be enjoyed. This has a number of applications, for planners, the tourism business and consumers alike. The use of this (filter) method in climate databases and meteorological forecasts could help determine the tourist season, the suitability of setting up a business associated with sun and beach tourism, as well as help plan holidays and program a day's leisure activities. Thus, the article seeks to improve our understanding of the climate preferences of that tourist activity par

  16. The use of webcam images to determine tourist-climate aptitude: favourable weather types for sun and beach tourism on the Alicante coast (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarra, Emilio Martínez

    2011-05-01

    Climate has an obvious influence on tourism as a resource and as a location factor for tourist activities. Consequently, the tourist phenomenon in general is heavily controlled by meteorological conditions-in short, by the climate. In this article, the author proposes a set of weather types with which to establish the climate aptitude for sun and beach tourism. To determine these types, the density of use of one of the beaches with the lowest seasonality in continental Europe, the Levante Beach in Benidorm (Alicante, Spain), was analysed. Beach attendance was monitored using a webcam installed by the "Agencia Valenciana de Turismo". The relationship between the density of use of the lower and upper beach areas on the one hand, and meteorological variables on the other, allowed comfort (physiological equivalent temperature) and enjoyment (fractions of solar radiation) thresholds to be established. The appropriate hydric comfort values were obtained by comparing the ranges proposed by Besancenot in 1989 [Besancenot (1989) Clima et turismes. Massom, París] with numbers of visitors to the beach. The wind velocity and precipitation thresholds were selected following consultation with the literature and considering the climatic characteristics of the environment under analysis. Based on a combination of these thresholds, weather types suitable for this specific tourist activity are defined. Thus, this article presents a method for assessing the extent to which a day on the beach can be enjoyed. This has a number of applications, for planners, the tourism business and consumers alike. The use of this (filter) method in climate databases and meteorological forecasts could help determine the tourist season, the suitability of setting up a business associated with sun and beach tourism, as well as help plan holidays and program a day's leisure activities. Thus, the article seeks to improve our understanding of the climate preferences of that tourist activity par excellence

  17. The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Where Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, T J; Potter, G L; Williamson, D L; Cederwall, R T; Boyle, J S; Fiorino, M; Hnilo, J J; Olson, J G; Xie, S; Yio, J J

    2003-11-21

    To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands, in particular, that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provied that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be similarly tested. In order to further this method for evaluating and analyzing parameterizations in climate GCMs, the USDOE is funding a joint venture of its Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT). This article elaborates the scientific rationale for CAPT, discusses technical aspects of its methodology, and presents examples of its implementation in a representative climate GCM. Numerical weather prediction methods show promise for improving parameterizations in climate GCMs.

  18. Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

    2015-12-01

    The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

  19. Multi-scalar influence of weather and climate on very large-fires in the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    John T. Abatzoglou; Renaud Barbero; Crystal A. Kolden; Katherine C. Hegewisch; Narasimhan K. Larkin; Harry Podschwit

    2014-01-01

    A majority of area burned in the Eastern United States (EUS) results from a limited number of exceptionally large wildfires. Relationships between climatic conditions and the occurrence of very large-fires (VLF) in the EUS were examined using composite and climate-niche analyses that consider atmospheric factors across inter-annual, sub-seasonal and synoptic temporal...

  20. NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

    2010-01-01

    AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder), was launched, in conjunction with AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) on the NASA polar orbiting research satellite EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite in May 2002 as a next generation atmospheric sounding system. Atmospheric sounders provide information primarily about the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperature and water vapor distribution. This is achieved by measuring outgoing radiation in discrete channels (spectral intervals) which are sensitive primarily to variations of these geophysical parameters. The primary objectives of AIRS/AMSU were to utilize such information in order to improve the skill of numerical weather prediction as well as to measure climate variability and trends. AIRS is a multi-detector array grating spectrometer with 2378 channels covering the spectral range 650/cm (15 microns) to 2660/cm (3.6 microns) with a resolving power (i/a i) of roughly 1200 where a i is the spectral channel bandpass. Atmospheric temperature profile can be determined from channel observations taken within the 15 micron (the long-wave CO2 absorption band) and within the 4.2 micron (the short-wave CO2 absorption band). Radiances in these (and all other) spectral intervals in the infrared are also sensitive to the presence of clouds in the instrument?s field of view (FOV), which are present about 95% of the time. AIRS was designed so as to allow for the ability to produce accurate Quality Controlled atmospheric soundings under most cloud conditions. This was achieved by having 1) extremely low channel noise values in the shortwave portion of the spectrum and 2) a very flat spatial response function within a channel?s FOV. IASI, the high spectral resolution IR interferometer flying on the European METOP satellite, does not contain either of these important characteristics. The AIRS instrument was also designed to be extremely stabile with regard to its spectral radiometric characteristics, which is

  1. Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, J.; DeGenio, A.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, C.; Hannay, C.; Jakob, C.; Jiao, Y.; hide

    2011-01-01

    A model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/ WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June July August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too

  2. Providing the Larger Climate Context During Extreme Weather - Lessons from Local Television News

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, M.; Cullen, H. M.

    2015-12-01

    Local television weathercasters, in their role as Station Scientists, are often called upon to educate viewers about the science and impacts of climate change. Climate Central supports these efforts through its Climate Matters program. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 245 weathercasters from across the country and provides localized information on climate and ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses in both English and Spanish. This presentation will focus on discussing best practices for integrating climate science into the local weather forecast as well as advances in the science of extreme event attribution. The Chief Meteorologist at News10 (Sacramento, CA) will discuss local news coverage of the ongoing California drought, extreme weather and climate literacy.

  3. How lithology and climate affect REE mobility and fractionation along a shale weathering transect of the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, L.; Jin, L.; Dere, A. L.; White, T.; Mathur, R.; Brantley, S. L.

    2012-12-01

    Shale weathering is an important process in global elemental cycles. Accompanied by the transformation of bedrock into regolith, many elements including rare earth elements (REE) are mobilized primarily by chemical weathering in the Critical Zone. Then, REE are subsequently transported from the vadose zone to streams, with eventual deposition in the oceans. REE have been identified as crucial and strategic natural resources; and discovery of new REE deposits will be facilitated by understanding global REE cycles. At present, the mechanisms and environmental factors controlling release, transport, and deposition of REE - the sources and sinks - at Earth's surface remain unclear. Here, we present a systematic study of soils, stream sediments, stream waters, soil water and bedrock in six small watersheds that are developed on shale bedrock in the eastern USA to constrain the mobility and fractionation of REE during early stages of chemical weathering. The selected watersheds are part of the shale transect established by the Susquehanna Shale Hills Observatory (SSHO) and are well suited to investigate weathering on shales of different compositions or within different climate regimes but on the same shale unit. Our REE study from SSHO, a small gray shale watershed in central Pennsylvania, shows that up to 65% of the REE (relative to parent bedrock) is depleted in the acidic and organic-rich soils due to chemical leaching. Both weathering soil profiles and natural waters show a preferential removal of middle REE (MREE: Sm to Dy) relative to light REE (La to Nd) and heavy REE (Ho to Lu) during shale weathering, due to preferential release of MREE from a phosphate phase (rhabdophane). Strong positive Ce anomalies observed in the regolith and stream sediments point to the fractionation and preferential precipitation of Ce as compared to other REE, in the generally oxidizing conditions of the surface environments. One watershed developed on the Marcellus black shale in

  4. Developing a robust methodology for assessing the value of weather/climate services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krijnen, Justin; Golding, Nicola; Buontempo, Carlo

    2016-04-01

    Increasingly, scientists involved in providing weather and climate services are expected to demonstrate the value of their work for end users in order to justify the costs of developing and delivering these services. This talk will outline different approaches that can be used to assess the socio-economic benefits of weather and climate services, including, among others, willingness to pay and avoided costs. The advantages and limitations of these methods will be discussed and relevant case-studies will be used to illustrate each approach. The choice of valuation method may be influenced by different factors, such as resource and time constraints and the end purposes of the study. In addition, there are important methodological differences which will affect the value assessed. For instance the ultimate value of a weather/climate forecast to a decision-maker will not only depend on forecast accuracy but also on other factors, such as how the forecast is communicated to and consequently interpreted by the end-user. Thus, excluding these additional factors may result in inaccurate socio-economic value estimates. In order to reduce the inaccuracies in this valuation process we propose an approach that assesses how the initial weather/climate forecast information can be incorporated within the value chain of a given sector, taking into account value gains and losses at each stage of the delivery process. By this we aim to more accurately depict the socio-economic benefits of a weather/climate forecast to decision-makers.

  5. ClimoBase: Rouse Canadian Surface Observations of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Variables, 1984-1998, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ClimoBase is a collection of surface climate measurements collected in Northern Canada by Dr. Wayne Rouse between 1984 and 1998 in three locations: Churchill,...

  6. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

  7. When truth is personally inconvenient, attitudes change: the impact of extreme weather on implicit support for green politicians and explicit climate-change beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudman, Laurie A; McLean, Meghan C; Bunzl, Martin

    2013-11-01

    A naturalistic investigation of New Jersey residents, both before and after they experienced Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, examined support for politicians committed or opposed to policies designed to combat climate change. At Time 1, before both hurricanes, participants showed negative implicit attitudes toward a green politician, but at Time 2, after the hurricanes, participants drawn from the same cohort showed a reversed automatic preference. Moreover, those who were significantly affected by Hurricane Sandy were especially likely to implicitly prefer the green politician, and implicit attitudes were the best predictor of voting after the storms, whereas explicit climate-change beliefs was the best predictor before the storms. In concert, the results suggest that direct experience with extreme weather can increase pro-environmentalism, and further support conceptualizing affective experiences as a source of implicit attitudes.

  8. Basalt Weathering in a Cold and Icy Climate: Three Sisters, Oregon as an Analog for Early Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampe, E. B.; Horgan, B.; Smith, R. J.; Scudder, N. A.; Rutledge, A. M.; Bamber, E.; Morris, R. V.

    2017-01-01

    There is abundant evidence for liquid water on early Mars, but the debate remains whether early Mars was warm and wet or cold and icy with punctuated periods of melting. To further investigate the hypothesis of a cold and icy early Mars, we collected rocks and sediments from the Collier and Diller glacial valleys in the Three Sisters volcanic complex in Oregon. We analyzed rocks and sediments with X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning and transmission electron microscopies with energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM, TEM, EDS), and visible, short-wave infrared (VSWIR) and thermal-IR (TIR) spectroscopies to characterize chemical weathering and sediment transport through the valleys. Here, we focus on the composition and mineralogy of the weathering products and how they compare to those identified on the martian surface. Phyllosilicates (smectite), zeolites, and poorly crystalline phases were discovered in pro- and supra-glacial sediments, whereas Si-rich regelation films were found on hand samples and boulders in the proglacial valleys. Most phyllosilicates and zeolites are likely detrital, originating from hydrothermally altered units on North Sister. TEM-EDS analyses of the flour samples demonstrate a variety of poorly crystalline (i.e., no long-range crystallographic order) phases: iron oxides, devitrified volcanic glass, and Fe-Si-Al phases. The CheMin XRD on the Curiosity rover in Gale crater has identified significant amounts of X-ray amorphous materials in all samples measured to date. The amorphous component is likely a combination of silicates, iron oxides, and sulfates. Although we have not yet observed amorphous sulfate in the samples from Three Sisters, the variety of poorly crystalline weathering products found at this site is consistent with the variable composition of the X-ray amorphous component identified by CheMin. We suggest that these amorphous phases on Mars could have formed in a similarly cold and icy environment.

  9. Fake News and Indifference to Scientific Fact : President Trump's Confused Tweets on Global Warming, Climate Change and Weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2018-01-01

    markdownabstractA set of 115 tweets on climate change by President Trump, from 2011 to 2015, are analysed by means of the data mining technique, sentiment analysis. The intention is to explore the contents and sentiments of the messages contained, the degree to which they differ, and their

  10. Weather and Flight Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Scott

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews some of the weather hazards involved with flight testing. Some of the hazards reviewed are: turbulence, icing, thunderstorms and winds and windshear. Maps, pictures, satellite pictures of the meteorological phenomena and graphs are included. Also included are pictures of damaged aircraft.

  11. Chemical weathering as a mechanism for the climatic control of bedrock river incision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Brendan P.; Johnson, Joel P. L.; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Sklar, Leonard S.

    2016-04-01

    Feedbacks between climate, erosion and tectonics influence the rates of chemical weathering reactions, which can consume atmospheric CO2 and modulate global climate. However, quantitative predictions for the coupling of these feedbacks are limited because the specific mechanisms by which climate controls erosion are poorly understood. Here we show that climate-dependent chemical weathering controls the erodibility of bedrock-floored rivers across a rainfall gradient on the Big Island of Hawai‘i. Field data demonstrate that the physical strength of bedrock in streambeds varies with the degree of chemical weathering, which increases systematically with local rainfall rate. We find that incorporating the quantified relationships between local rainfall and erodibility into a commonly used river incision model is necessary to predict the rates and patterns of downcutting of these rivers. In contrast to using only precipitation-dependent river discharge to explain the climatic control of bedrock river incision, the mechanism of chemical weathering can explain strong coupling between local climate and river incision.

  12. "Share weather" : Design and evaluation of a new concept for sharing weather information

    OpenAIRE

    Elevant, Katarina

    2013-01-01

    Already centuries ago, humans had observed the weather in their everyday lives, seeking ways to understand, comprehend, and predict it. Until the present day, weather has had tremendous impacts on our lives and with climate change human civilizations as well. With new media technologies weather constitutes a part of the information services used by many residents of modern cities, people and businesses worldwide. The rise of Web 2.0, a cyberspace where individuals may connect and interact und...

  13. Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutierrez, Jose M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating

  14. Progress in space weather predictions and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundstedt, H.

    The methods of today's predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday's statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today's applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.

  15. Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trnka, Miroslav; Rötter, Reimund P.; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2014-01-01

    events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed...... crop failure across Europe. This study provides essential information for developing adaptation strategies.......Europe is the largest producer of wheat, the second most widely grown cereal crop after rice. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events are considered a major threat for wheat production. We present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather...

  16. Ellul and the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, John; Glover, Leigh

    2005-01-01

    Global climate change may result in a wide array of social and environmental harms, and this prospect has given rise to an international treaty, the 1992 "UN Framework Convention on Climate Change." Scientific uncertainties, nation state politics, and economic resistance had to be addressed before this landmark environmental agreement could be…

  17. Weather, transport mode choices and emotional travel experiences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Böcker, L.; Dijst, M.J.; Faber, J.

    2016-01-01

    With climate change high on the political agenda, weather has emerged as an important issue in travel behavioral research and urban planning. While various studies demonstrate profound effects of weather on travel behaviors, limited attention has been paid to subjective weather experiences and the

  18. Weather and human impacts on forest fires: 100 years of fire history in two climatic regions of Switzerland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zumbrunnen, T.; Pezzatti, B.; Menendez, P.; Bugmann, H.; Brgi, M.; Conedera, M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the factors driving past fire regimes is crucial in the context of global change as a basis for predicting future changes. In this study, we aimed to identify the impact of climate and human activities on fire occurrence in the most fire-prone regions of Switzerland. We considered

  19. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semi-arid climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, V.; Schoonejans, J.; Opfergelt, S.; Ameijeiras-Marino, Y.; Christl, M.

    2016-12-01

    On Earth, the Critical Zone supports terrestrial life, being the near-surface environment where interactions between the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere take place Quantitative understanding of the interaction between mechanical rock breakdown, chemical weathering, and physical erosion is essential for unraveling Earth's biogeochemical cycles. In this study, we explore the role of soil water balance on regulating soil chemical weathering under water deficit regimes. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We present and compare quantitative information on soil weathering, chemical depletion and total denudation that were derived based on geochemical mass balance, 10Be cosmogenic nuclides and U-series disequilibria. Soil production rates determined based on U-series isotopes (238U, 234U, 230Th and 226Ra) are of the same order of magnitude as 10Be-derived denudation rates, suggesting steady state soil thickness, in two out of three sampling sites. The chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (˜5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Soil weathering extents increase (nonlinearly) with soil thickness and decrease with increasing surface denudation rates, consistent with kinetically limited or controlled weathering. Our study suggests that soil residence time and water availability limit weathering processes in semi-arid climates, which has not been validated previously with field data. An important implication of this finding is that climatic regimes may strongly regulate soil weathering by modulating soil solute fluxes.

  20. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    OpenAIRE

    Jahn, Malte

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  1. Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas

    1990-01-01

    Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

  2. Wine and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Ashenfelter, Orley; Storchmann, Karl

    2014-01-01

    In this article we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine with the goal of describing how climate change is likely to affect their production. We start by discussing the physical impact of weather on vine phenology, berry composition and yields, and then survey the economic literature measuring the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs and profits and how climate change will affect these. We also describe what ha...

  3. Climate adaption and post-fire restoration of a foundational perennial in cold desert: Insights from intraspecific variation in response to weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brabec, Martha M.; Germino, Matthew; Richardson, Bryce A.

    2017-01-01

    1.The loss of foundational but fire-intolerant perennials such as sagebrush due to increases in fire size and frequency in semiarid regions has motivated efforts to restore them, often with mixed or even no success. Seeds of sagebrush Artemisia tridentata and related species must be moved considerable distances from seed source to planting sites, but such transfers have not been guided by an understanding of local climate adaptation. Initial seedling establishment and its response to weather are a key demographic bottleneck that likely varies among subspecies and populations of sagebrush. 2.We assessed differences in survival, growth, and physiological responses of sagebrush to weather among eleven seed sources that varied in subspecies, cytotype, and climates-of-origin over 18 months following outplanting. Diploid or polyploid populations of mountain, Wyoming, and basin big sagebrush (A.tridentata ssp. vaseyana, A.tridentata ssp. wyomingensis, and A.tridentata ssp. tridentata, respectively) were planted onto five burned sites that normally support A.t.wyomingensis with some A.t.tridentata. 3.A.t.wyomingensis had the most growth and survival, and tetraploid populations had greater survival and height than diploids. Seasonal timing of mortality varied among the subspecies/cytotypes and was more closely related to minimum temperatures than water deficit. 4.Temperatures required to induce ice formation were up to 6°C more negative in 4n-A.t.tridentata and A.t.wyomingensis than other subspecies/cytotypes, indicating greater freezing avoidance. In contrast, freezing resistance of photosynthesis varied only 1°C among subspecies/cytotypes, being greatest in A.t.wyomingensis and least in the subspecies normally considered most cold-adapted,A.t.vaseyana. A large spectrum of reliance on freezing-avoidance vs. freezing-tolerance was observed and corresponded to differences in post-fire survivorship among subspecies/cytotypes. Differences in water deficit

  4. Historic Climate Diaries and Journals

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Diaries and Journals containing weather information in a non-tabular format. Records date from 1735 through the early 20th century. Much of the weather and climate...

  5. An Integrative Approach to Improving an Introductory Weather & Climate Course and Developing an Allied NASA Earth & Space Science Certificate Program for Pre-service Secondary Teachers (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, C. A.; Martin-Hansen, L.; Diem, J.; Elliott, W.

    2009-12-01

    An Atlanta-based partnership made up of leaders in science, education, and Georgia’s state-wide STEM Education Initiative are creating an enduring legacy of climate science education for pre-service and in-service teachers in Georgia as well as for underrepresented high school students who participate in an "Early College" program with Georgia State University (GSU). The core elements of our NASA-funded program are to infuse NASA global climate change resources and best pedagogical practice into a popular 4-credit lecture/lab course called “Introduction to Weather & Climate” (GEOG 1112) at GSU, and to establish a sustainable academic program for pre-service teachers in the College of Education called the NASA Earth & Space Science (ESS) Teacher Certificate. The NASA ESS Certificate will require candidates to accomplish the following as part of (or in addition to) standard degree and licensure requirements: 1. successfully complete a graduate section of “Introduction to Weather and Climate” (GEOG 7112), which requires lesson planning related to course content and engagement with GSU's new CO2 monitoring station whose research-quality data will provide unique hands-on opportunities for Metro Atlanta students and teachers; 2) complete an additional advanced course in climate change (GEOG 6784) plus elective hours in physical science disciplines (e.g. astronomy and physics); 3) serve as a lab teaching assistant for GEOG 1112 and a coach for a cadre of Carver Early College students who are taking the course; 4) make at least one of two teaching practica at a Georgia-based NASA Explorer School; and 5) participate or co-present in a week-long, residential, field-based, Summer Institute in Earth & Space Science intended to increase the interest, knowledge, and ability of in-service secondary science educators to fulfill climate-related standards in Earth Science and Earth Systems Science. We will evaluate, document, and disseminate (to the University System of

  6. Proximate weather patterns and spring green-up phenology effect Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) body mass and reproductive success: the implications of climate change and topography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Ruairidh D; Newman, Chris; Macdonald, David W; Rosell, Frank

    2013-04-01

    Low spring temperatures have been found to benefit mobile herbivores by reducing the rate of spring-flush, whereas high rainfall increases forage availability. Cold winters prove detrimental, by increasing herbivore thermoregulatory burdens. Here we examine the effects of temperature and rainfall variability on a temperate sedentary herbivore, the Eurasian beaver, Castor fiber, in terms of inter-annual variation in mean body weight and per territory offspring production. Data pertain to 198 individuals, over 11 years, using capture-mark-recapture. We use plant growth (tree cores) and fAPAR (a satellite-derived plant productivity index) to examine potential mechanisms through which weather conditions affect the availability and the seasonal phenology of beaver forage. Juvenile body weights were lighter after colder winters, whereas warmer spring temperatures were associated with lighter adult body weights, mediated by enhanced green-up phenology rates. Counter-intuitively, we observed a negative association between rainfall and body weight in juveniles and adults, and also with reproductive success. Alder, Alnus incana, (n = 68) growth rings (principal beaver food in the study area) exhibited a positive relationship with rainfall for trees growing at elevations >2 m above water level, but a negative relationship for trees growing beavers at the landscape scale via effects on spring green-up phenology and winter thermoregulation. Rainfall influences beavers at finer spatial scales through topographical interactions with plant growth, where trees near water level, prone to water logging, producing poorer forage in wetter years. Unlike most other herbivores, beavers are an obligate aquatic species that utilize a restricted 'central-place' foraging range, limiting their ability to take advantage of better forage growth further from water during wetter years. With respect to anthropogenic climate change, interactions between weather variables, plant phenology and

  7. The "dirty weather" diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for northern New Zealand, 1839-1851

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorrey, Andrew M.; Chappell, Petra R.

    2016-03-01

    Reverend Richard Davis (1790-1863) was a colonial-era missionary stationed in the Far North of New Zealand who was a key figure in the early efforts of the Church Mission Society. He kept meticulous meteorological records for the early settlements of Waimate North and Kaikohe, and his observations are preserved in a two-volume set in the Sir George Grey Special Collections in the Auckland Central Library. The Davis diary volumes are significant because they constitute some of the earliest land-based meteorological measurements that were continually chronicled for New Zealand. The diary measurements cover nine years within the 1839-1851 time span that are broken into two parts: 1839-1844 and 1848-1851. Davis' meteorological recordings include daily 9 a.m. and noon temperatures and midday pressure measurements. Qualitative comments in the diary note prevailing wind flow, wind strength, cloud cover, climate variability impacts, bio-indicators suggestive of drought, and notes on extreme weather events. "Dirty weather" comments scattered throughout the diary describe disturbed conditions with strong winds and driving rainfall. The Davis diary entries coincide with the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and they indicate southerly and westerly circulation influences and cooler winter temperatures were more frequent than today. A comparison of climate field reconstructions derived from the Davis diary data and tree-ring-based winter temperature reconstructions are supported by tropical coral palaeotemperature evidence. Davis' pressure measurements were corroborated using ship log data from vessels associated with iconic Antarctic exploration voyages that were anchored in the Bay of Islands, and suggest the pressure series he recorded are robust and can be used as "station data". The Reverend Davis meteorological data are expected to make a significant contribution to the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions across the Earth (ACRE) project, which feeds the major data

  8. NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

  9. Effects of Recent Climate Change on Hourly Weather Data for HVAC Design: A Case Study of Osaka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihui Yuan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The current design weather data used for heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC design in Japan was created using an old data period. New design weather data should be created to reflect recent local climate change. Based on our previous proposal of creating design weather data with two weather indices (dry-bulb temperature and enthalpy for HVAC design, design weather data for Osaka was created using more recently-measured weather data (period: 2001~2015 from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA in this study. The effect of recent climate change on the design weather data created with eight proposed methods was found. It showed the change in weather elements for cooling design clearly trends to warmer and drier weather, with more solar radiation and lower enthalpy, while the trends in heating design are less clear, mainly showing higher enthalpy. Furthermore, the difference in the peak load for the heating and cooling designs using the new and old design weather data was compared. The comparison showed that the minimum difference in peak load for the heating design was found using the mean daily dry-bulb temperature as the first and second indices; for the cooling design, the minimum difference in peak load was found using mean daily enthalpy as both the first and second indices.

  10. Weathering of Igneous, Metamorphic, and Sedimentary Rocks in a Semi-arid Climate - An Engineering Application of Petrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, W. J.; Wendlandt, R. F.

    2003-12-01

    Over the last 10 years, analytical methods have been introduced to students in CSM's undergraduate geological engineering program through a multi-year and multi-course approach. Beginning with principles and simple applications of XRD and SEM in sophomore Mineralogy and building on these skills in subsequent junior and senior year courses, geological engineers acquire proficiency in analytical methods. Essential workplace skills are thus acquired without adding an extra course in the undergraduate program. The following exercise is completed by juniors in an integrated Ig.-Met.-Sed. petrology course. The identification of clay mineral assemblages in soils provides a unique opportunity to demonstrate how basic principles of petrology and geochemistry are applied to engineering design criteria in construction site preparation. Specifically, the problem investigates the conditions leading to the formation of smectite in soils and the resulting construction risk due to soil expansion. Students examine soils developed on igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks near Denver, Colorado. The field locations are areas of suburban growth and several have expansive soil problems. The 2-week exercise includes sample collection, description, and preparation, determining clay mineralogy by XRD, and measurement of Atterberg Plasticity Indices. Teaching materials may be found at: http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/petrology03/. This exercise accomplishes three objectives: First, skills in XRD analysis are developed by introducing students to concepts of particle size separation, particle orientation, and sequential analysis steps which are standard practices in clay characterization. Second, lecture material on the geochemistry of weathering of different rock types is reinforced. Students interpret the origin of clay mineral assemblages developed in soils derived from Precambrian gneisses, lower Paleozoic feldspathic sandstones, upper Paleozoic marine shales, and Tertiary

  11. Space Weather Influence on the Earth Climate: Possible Manifestations in Wheat Markets Reaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pustilnik, Lev; Yom Din, Gregory; Zagnetko, Alexander

    We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agri-culture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial con-nections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simul-taneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the ques-tion, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predomi-nant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

  12. Impacts of extreme weather events and climate variability on carbon exchanges in an age-sequence of managed temperate pine forests from 2003 to 201

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    North American temperate forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and regional water resources. A large portion of these forests has traditionally been managed for timber production and other uses. The response of these forests, which are in different stages of development, to extreme weather events such as drought and heat stresses, climate variability and management regimes is not fully understood. In this study, eddy covariance flux measurements in an age sequence (77-, 42-, and 14-years old as of 2016) of white pine (Pinus strobus L.) plantation forests in southern Ontario, Canada are examined to determine the impact of heat and drought stresses and climate variability over a 14 year period (2003 to 2016). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) values were 195 ± 87, 512 ±161 and 103 ± 103 g C m-2 year-1 in 77-, 42- and 14-year-old forests respectively, over the study period. The youngest forest became a net carbon sink in the fifth year of its growth. Air temperature was a dominant control on carbon fluxes and heat stress reduced photosynthesis much more as compared to ecosystem respiration in the growing season. A large decrease in annual NEP was observed during years experiencing heat waves. Drought stress had the strongest impact on the middle age forest which had the largest carbon sink and water demand. In contrast, young forest was more sensitive to heat stress, than drought. Severity of heat and drought stress impacts was highly dependent on the timing of these events. Simultaneous occurrence of heat and drought stress in the early growing season such as in 2012 and 2016 had a drastic negative impact on carbon balance in these forests due to plant-soil-atmosphere feedbacks. Future research should consider the timing of the extreme events, the stage of forest development and effects of extreme events on component fluxes. This research helps to assess the vulnerability of managed forests and their ecological and hydrological

  13. Denudational slope processes on weathered basalt in northern California: 130 ka history of soil development, periods of slope stability and colluviation, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Eric; Harrison, Bruce; Baldwin, John; Page, William; Rood, Dylan

    2017-04-01

    The geomorphic history of hillslope evolution is controlled by multiple types of denudational processes. Detailed analysis of hillslope soil-stratigraphy provides a means to identify the timing of periods of slope stability and non-stability, evidence of the types of denudational processes, and possible links to climatic drivers. Moreover, the degree of soil formation and the presence of buried or truncated soils provide evidence of the relative age of alternating periods of colluviation and stability. We use evaluation of soil stratigraphy, for a small forested hillslope (soils and slope colluvium are derived from highly weathered basalt. Stratigraphic interpretation is reinforced with soil profile development index (PDI) derived age estimates, tephrochronology, luminescence ages on colluvium, and He3 nuclide exposure dates. Soils formed along hilltop ridges are well developed and reflect deep (>2-3 m) in-situ weathering of the basalt bedrock. PDI age estimates and He3 exposure dates indicate that these hilltop soils had been in place for 100-130 ka, implying a long period of relative surface stability. At about 40-30 ka, soil stratigraphy indicates the onset of 3 distinct cycles of denudation of the hilltop and slopes. Evidence for changes in stability and onset of soil erosion is the presence of several buried soils formed in colluvium downslope of the hilltop. These buried soils have formed in sediment derived from erosion of the hilltop soils (i.e. soil parent material of previously weathered soil matrix and basalt cobbles). The oldest buried soil indicates that slope stability was re-established between 32-23 ka, with stability and soil formation lasting to about 10 ka. Soil-stratigraphy indicates that two additional intervals of downslope transport of sediment between 6-10 ka, and 2-5 ka. Soil properties indicate that the primary method of downslope transport is largely due to tree throw and faunal burrowing. Onset of slope instability at 40-30 ka appears to

  14. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker

    2007-01-01

    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  15. Lake Baikal climatic record between 310 and 50 ky BP: Interplay between diatoms, watershed weathering and orbital forcing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grygar, Tomáš; Bláhová, Anna; Hradil, David; Bezdička, Petr; Kadlec, Jaroslav; Schnabl, Petr; Swann, G.; Oberhänsli, H.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 250, 1-4 (2007), s. 50-67 ISSN 0031-0182 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3032401 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40320502; CEZ:AV0Z3013912 Keywords : lake sediments * climate change * spectroscopy Subject RIV: CA - Inorganic Chemistry Impact factor: 2.162, year: 2007

  16. Weather and climate needs for Lidar observations from space and concepts for their realization. [wind, temperature, moisture, and pressure data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlas, D.; Korb, C. L.

    1980-01-01

    The spectrum of weather and climate needs for Lidar observations from space is discussed with emphasis on the requirements for wind, temperature, moisture, and pressure data. It is shown that winds are required to realistically depict all atmospheric scales in the tropics and the smaller scales at higher latitudes, where both temperature and wind profiles are necessary. The need for means to estimate air-sea exchanges of sensible and latent heat also is noted. A concept for achieving this through a combination of Lidar cloud top heights and IR cloud top temperatures of cloud streets formed during cold air outbreaks over the warmer ocean is outlined. Recent theoretical feasibility studies concerning the profiling of temperatures, pressure, and humidity by differential absorption Lidar (DIAL) from space and expected accuracies are reviewed. An alternative approach to Doppler Lidar wind measurements also is presented. The concept involves the measurement of the displacement of the aerosol backscatter pattern, at constant heights, between two successive scans of the same area, one ahead of the spacecraft and the other behind it a few minutes later. Finally, an integrated space Lidar system capable of measuring temperature, pressure, humidity, and winds which combines the DIAL methods with the aerosol pattern displacement concept is described.

  17. Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.

    2015-01-01

    Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

  18. Patterns of volcanism, weathering, and climate history from high-resolution geochemistry of the BINGO core, Mono Lake, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, S. R.; Starratt, S.; Hemming, S. R.

    2012-12-01

    Mono Lake, California is a closed-basin lake on the east side of the Sierra Nevada, and inflow from snowmelt dominates the modern hydrology. Changes in wetness during the last glacial period (>12,000 years ago) and over the last 2,000 years have been extensively described, but are poorly known for the intervening period. We have recovered a 6.25 m-long core from ~3 m of water in the western embayment of Mono Lake, which is shown by initial radiocarbon dates to cover at least the last 10,000 years. The sediments of the core are variable, ranging from black to gray silts near the base, laminated olive-green silt through the center, to layers of peach-colored carbonate nodules interbedded with gray and olive silts and pea-green organic ooze. Volcanic tephras from Bodie and Adobe Hills to the north, east, and south. The rhyolitic tephras of the Mono-Inyo Craters are much lower in TiO2 than the bedrock (10,000 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP) higher in the core, and significant disruption of the fine layers, this interval likely indicates a relatively deep lake persisting into the early Holocene, after the initial dramatic regression from late Pleistocene levels. The finely laminated olive-green silt of the period ~10,700 to ~7500 cal yr BP is very homogenous chemically, probably indicating a stable, stratified lake and a relatively wet climate. This section merits mm-scale scanning and petrographic examination in the future. The upper boundary of the laminated section shows rising Ca/K and decreasing Ti and Si/K, marking the appearance of authigenic carbonate layers. After ~7500 cal yr BP, the sediment in BINGO becomes highly variable, with increased occurrence of tephra layers and carbonate, indicating a lower and more variable lake level. A short interval of olive-green, laminated fine sand/silt just above a radiocarbon date of 3870 ± 360 cal yr BP may record the Dechambeau Ranch highstand of Stine (1990; PPP v. 78 pp 333-381), and is marked by a distinct

  19. Large-eddy simulation of stable atmospheric boundary layers to develop better turbulence closures for climate and weather models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Zeid, Elie; Huang, Jing; Golaz, Jean-Christophe

    2011-11-01

    A disconnect remains between our improved physical understanding of boundary layers stabilized by buoyancy and how we parameterize them in coarse atmospheric models. Most operational climate models require excessive turbulence mixing in such conditions to prevent decoupling of the atmospheric component from the land component, but the performance of such a model is unlikely to be satisfactory under weakly and moderately stable conditions. Using Large-eddy simulation, we revisit some of the basic challenges in parameterizing stable atmospheric boundary layers: eddy-viscosity closure is found to be more reliable due to an improved alignment of vertical Reynolds stresses and mean strains under stable conditions, but the dependence of the magnitude of the eddy viscosity on stability is not well represented by several models tested here. Thus, we propose a new closure that reproduces the different stability regimes better. Subsequently, tests of this model in the GFDL's single-column model (SCM) are found to yield good agreement with LES results in idealized steady-stability cases, as well as in cases with gradual and sharp changes of stability with time.

  20. Effects of Weather on Tourism and its Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. H.; Kim, S.; Lee, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Tourism is weather sensitive industry (Gómez Martín, 2005). As climate change has been intensifying, the concerns about negative effects of weather on tourism also have been increasing. This study attempted to find ways that mitigate the negative effects from weather on tourism, by analyzing a path of the effects of weather on intention to revisit and its moderation. The data of the study were collected by a self-recording online questionnaire survey of South Korean domestic tourists during August 2015, and 2,412 samples were gathered. A path model of effects of weather on intention to revisit that including moderating effects from physical attraction satisfaction and service satisfaction was ran. Season was controlled in the path model. The model fit was adequate (CMIN/DF=2.372(p=.000), CFI=.974, RMSEA=.024, SRMR=0.040), and the Model Comparison, which assumes that the base model to be correct with season constrained model, showed that there was a seasonal differences in the model ( DF=24, CMIN=32.430, P=.117). By the analysis, it was figured out that weather and weather expectation affected weather satisfaction, and the weather satisfaction affected intention to revisit (spring/fall: .167**, summer: .104**, and winter: .114**). Meanwhile physical attraction satisfaction (.200**), and service satisfaction (.210**) of tourism positively moderated weather satisfaction in summer, and weather satisfaction positively moderated physical attraction (.238**) satisfaction and service satisfaction (.339**). In other words, in summer, dissatisfaction from hot weather was moderated by satisfaction from physical attractions and services, and in spring/fall, comfort weather conditions promoted tourists to accept tourism experience and be satisfied from attractions and services positively. Based on the result, it was expected that if industries focus on offering the good attractions and services based on weather conditions, there would be positive effects to alleviate tourists

  1. Variability of Blowing Dust Weather Frequency over Semi-Arid Areas of China (Baicheng, Jilin Province and Relationships with Climatic Factors During 1951 - 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-Fei Wu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed the variability of blowing dust weather frequency (BDWF and patterns in climatic factors over Baicheng for the period 1951 - 2006 in this study. The data showed that blowing dust over Baicheng occurs intensively during the spring and shows significant inter-decadal variability. One of the main findings is that the occurrence of blowing dust has significantly decreased after the mid-1980s. The mean wind speed (WS, diurnal temperature range (DTR, relative humidity (RH and precipitation at Baicheng during the spring show decreasing trends. The decreasing trends of the mean WS and DTR are significant at 99% confidence levels according to the t-test; the dataset also indicated a sharp decrease in WS occurred after the mid-1980s. The mean surface air temperature (SAT escalated in a fluctuating manner during 1951 - 2006. BDWF at Baicheng was significantly related to local WS, SAT and DTR during the spring [correlation coefficients (CCs are 0.41, -0.47 and 0.36, respectively]. The correlation between BDWF at Baicheng and selected climatic factors over the sand-dust source regions and transmission paths were also calculated. We found that BDWF is well correlated to the mean WS and SAT during the spring, with CCs of 0.45 and -0.48, respectively. The most likely causes for the dramatic decrease observed in BDWF after the mid-1980s were related to the adjustment of large-scale circulation patterns in response to a decrease of meridional temperature differences, the weakening of steering westerlies and the strengthening of downward motions that has occurred at the middle latitudes of eastern Eurasia in recent decades.

  2. Semi-supervised tracking of extreme weather events in global spatio-temporal climate datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. K.; Prabhat, M.; Williams, D. N.

    2017-12-01

    Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to solve problem to detect extreme weather events in large scale climate datasets and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous hand-crafted methods. Recent work has shown that multichannel spatiotemporal encoder-decoder CNN architecture is able to localize events in semi-supervised bounding box. Motivated by this work, we propose new learning metric based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) and Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to track extreme weather events in spatio-temporal dataset. We consider spatio-temporal object tracking problems as learning probabilistic distribution of continuous latent features of auto-encoder using stochastic variational inference. For this, we assume that our datasets are i.i.d and latent features is able to be modeled by Gaussian distribution. In proposed metric, we first train VAE to generate approximate posterior given multichannel climate input with an extreme climate event at fixed time. Then, we predict bounding box, location and class of extreme climate events using convolutional layers given input concatenating three features including embedding, sampled mean and standard deviation. Lastly, we train LSTM with concatenated input to learn timely information of dataset by recurrently feeding output back to next time-step's input of VAE. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the first semi-supervised end-to-end architecture based on VAE to track extreme weather events which can apply to massive scaled unlabeled climate datasets. Second, the information of timely movement of events is considered for bounding box prediction using LSTM which can improve accuracy of localization. To our knowledge, this technique has not been explored neither in climate community or in Machine Learning community.

  3. A Simple Exploration of Complexity at the Climate-Weather-Social-Conflict Nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, M.

    2017-12-01

    The conceptualization, exploration, and prediction of interplay between climate, weather, important resources, and social and economic - so political - human behavior is cast, and analyzed, in terms familiar from statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics. A simple threshold toy model is presented which emulates human tendencies to either actively engage in responses deriving, in part, from environmental circumstances or to maintain some semblance of status quo, formulated based on efforts drawn from the sociophysics literature - more specifically vis a vis a model akin to spin glass depictions of human behavior - with threshold/switching of individual and collective dynamics influenced by relatively more detailed weather and land surface model (hydrological) analyses via a land data assimilation system (a custom rendition of the NASA GSFC Land Information System). Parameters relevant to human systems' - e.g., individual and collective switching - sensitivity to hydroclimatology are explored towards investigation of overall system behavior; i.e., fixed points/equilibria, oscillations, and bifurcations of systems composed of human interactions and responses to climate and weather through, e.g., agriculture. We discuss implications in terms of conceivable impacts of climate change and associated natural disasters on socioeconomics, politics, and power transfer, drawing from relatively recent literature concerning human conflict.

  4. Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

    2017-03-01

    The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

  5. Weathering climate change. Some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fankhauser, Samuel; Smith, Joel B.; Tol, Richard S.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate. Such a strategy will have to reflect the long time horizon of, and the prevailing uncertainties about, climate change. An intuitively appealing approach therefore seems to be to enhance the flexibility and resilience of systems to react to and cope with climate shocks and extremes, as well as to improve information. In addition, in the case of quasi-irreversible investments with a long lifetime (e.g. infrastructure investments, development of coastal zones), precautionary adjustments may be called for to increase the robustness of structures, or to increase the rate of depreciation to allow for earlier replacement. Many of these measures may already have to be considered now, and could be worthwhile in their own right, independent of climate change considerations

  6. Designing and Implementing Weather Generators as Web Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rassarin Chinnachodteeranun

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate and weather realizations are essential inputs for simulating crop growth and yields to analyze the risks associated with future conditions. To simplify the procedure of generating weather realizations and make them available over the Internet, we implemented novel mechanisms for providing weather generators as web services, as well as a mechanism for sharing identical weather realizations given a climatological information. A web service for preparing long-term climate data was implemented based on an international standard, Sensor Observation Service (SOS. The weather generator services, which are the core components of the framework, analyze climatological data, and can take seasonal climate forecasts as inputs for generating weather realizations. The generated weather realizations are encoded in a standard format, which are ready for use to crop modeling. All outputs are generated in SOS standard, which broadens the extent of data sharing and interoperability with other sectoral applications, e.g., water resources management. These services facilitate the development of other applications requiring input weather realizations, as these can be obtained easily by just calling the service. The workload of analysts related to data preparation and handling of legacy weather generator programs can be reduced. The architectural design and implementation presented here can be used as a prototype for constructing further services on top of an interoperable sensor network system.

  7. Distinguishing the impacts of human activities and climate variability on runoff and sediment load change based on paired periods with similar weather conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Fei; Hessel, Rudi; Mu, Xingmin; Maroulis, Jerry; Zhao, Guangju; Geissen, Violette; Ritsema, Coen

    2015-01-01

    Runoff and sediment loads from river basin are largely affected by the interplay of climate variability and human activities within the basin. However, distinguishing the impacts of climate variability and human activities would vastly improve our knowledge of water resources, climate variability

  8. Fire weather and large fire potential in the northern Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon M. Collins

    2014-01-01

    Fuels, weather, and topography all contribute to observed fire behavior. Of these, weather is not only the most dynamic factor, it is the most likely to be directly influenced by climate change. In this study 40 years of daily fire weather observations from five weather stations across the northern Sierra Nevada were analyzed to investigate potential changes or trends...

  9. Enhanced Continental Weathering on Antarctica During the Mid Miocene Climatic Optima Based on Pb Isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, E. E.; Fenn, C.; Basak, C.

    2012-12-01

    Feedbacks between climate and continental weathering can be monitored over geologic time scales using Pb isotopes preserved in marine sediments. During chemical weathering, radiogenic Pb is preferentially released to the dissolved phase, producing weathering solutions with more radiogenic isotopic values than the parent rock. The offset between the composition of the solution and rock tend to increase with the intensity of incongruent weathering (von Blanckenburg and Nägler, 2001; Harlavan and Erel, 2002). The seawater isotopic signal extracted from Fe-Mn oxides on bulk marine sediments is interpreted to represent the composition of local dissolved weathering inputs. For example, increasing seawater Pb isotopes observed during the most recent deglaciation are believed to reflect enhanced weathering of newly exposed glacial rock flour under warm conditions (Foster and Vance, 2006; Kurzweil et al., 2010). For this study we evaluated Nd and Pb isotopes from both the seawater fraction (extracted from Fe-Mn oxides) and parent rock (the detrital fraction of marine sediment) during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) and subsequent cooling and East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) expansion (18 to 8 Ma) from Ocean Drilling Program site 744 on Kerguelen Plateau (2300 m; Indian sector) and sites 689 and 690 on Maud Rise (2080 m and 2914 m; Atlantic sector). The absolute value of seawater 206Pb/204Pb and separation between values for seawater and detrital fractions increased during the MMCO, suggesting enhanced weathering in proglacial and deglaciated areas exposed by ice sheet meltback during the warm interval. During the ensuing cooling, seawater values and the offset between the two archives decreased. Similar trends are displayed by 207Pb/204Pb and 208Pb/204Pb, although 207Pb/204Pb detrital values tend to be higher than seawater values. Reconstructions of atmospheric pCO2 in the Miocene have suggested both 1) decoupling between pCO2 and climate with consistently low

  10. Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease Updated:Sep 16,2015 Th is winter ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Cardiovascular Conditions • Conditions Home • Arrhythmia and Atrial Fibrillation • Cardiac ...

  11. Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

    2017-10-01

    Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

  12. Climate | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jump to Content Enter Search Terms Weather Climate Oceans & Coasts Fisheries Satellites your local weather Enter your ZIP code GO Enter Search Terms Content OUR WORK Climate From to help people understand and prepare for climate variability and change. Climate. NOAA From

  13. Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News ; Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Monitoring Weather & Climate in Realtime Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Preliminary Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Figures Monthly Atmospheric & Sea Surface Temperature Indices

  14. Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Auchmann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

  15. PREVISÕES TRADICIONAIS DE TEMPO E CLIMA NO CEARÁ: O CONHECIMENTO POPULAR À SERVIÇO DA CIÊNCIA / Traditional weather and climate forecasts in Ceará: lay knowledge in the service of science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Donald

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the meteorological interpretations of phenomenon that are made bycareful observers of nature. The climate forecasts, made by the sertanejos and based onempirical observations, have relevance for the probability-based climate forecasts developedby meteorological institutions. In 1998 research was carried out in six different municípiosand microclimates during the months of January and February. A total of 484 householdinterviews were conducted. One research objective was to better understand the lay methodsinvolved in developing weather and climate forecasts. Both the lay forecasts as well as theinstitutional forecasts are incomplete and constantly improving. Increasing our understandingof how empirically based forecasts are used by the sertanejos is one way to influence the acceptance of other methods of predicting climatic conditions.Keywords:

  16. Climate change and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

  17. Assessment of weather indicators for possible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maqssood, H.; Ahmed, S.I.

    2014-01-01

    From 20 century onwards, a great concern has been expressed regarding global climate change. This study attempts to perform detailed analysis of temperature and precipitation for Karachi city of Pakistan, to assess the possible climate change, using two data sets (51-year data: 1961-2012 and 31-year data: 1981-2012) for different parameters. Trends were generated using linear regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK), which depicted that daily and annual temperatures were increasing, with changes in minimum temperature being more significant than maximum temperature. Analyses also showed increase in extreme temperature at night and during winter, showing that urbanization was a major factor, as the heat from buildings trapped in between dissipates at nights. The daily and monthly precipitation levels increased in contrast to annual precipitation trend, which is justified by the averaged monthly analysis showing that decreasing trends were much more significant than increasing trends. In addition, monthly precipitation showed an increase of 4.3 mm, using LR and MK test. It can be noticed that two extreme winter months (December and January) and two extreme hot months (May and October) received increased rainfall. However, statistical analyses showed overall annual decrease in rainfall. Furthermore, decadal analysis indicated sinusoidal behaviour of change in climate indicators; making climatic change evident but cyclic in nature. (author)

  18. New software methods in radar ornithology using WSR-88D weather data and potential application to monitoring effects of climate change on bird migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Reginald; Paxton, John; Sojda, Richard S.; Swayne, David A.; Yang, Wanhong; Voinov, A.A.; Rizzoli, A.; Filatova, T.

    2010-01-01

    Radar ornithology has provided tools for studying the movement of birds, especially related to migration. Researchers have presented qualitative evidence suggesting that birds, or at least migration events, can be identified using large broad scale radars such as the WSR-88D used in the NEXRAD weather surveillance system. This is potentially a boon for ornithologists because such data cover a large portion of the United States, are constantly being produced, are freely available, and have been archived since the early 1990s. A major obstacle to this research, however, has been that identifying birds in NEXRAD data has required a trained technician to manually inspect a graphically rendered radar sweep. A single site completes one volume scan every five to ten minutes, producing over 52,000 volume scans in one year. This is an immense amount of data, and manual classification is infeasible. We have developed a system that identifies biological echoes using machine learning techniques. This approach begins with training data using scans that have been classified by experts, or uses bird data collected in the field. The data are preprocessed to ensure quality and to emphasize relevant features. A classifier is then trained using this data and cross validation is used to measure performance. We compared neural networks, naive Bayes, and k-nearest neighbor classifiers. Empirical evidence is provided showing that this system can achieve classification accuracies in the 80th to 90th percentile. We propose to apply these methods to studying bird migration phenology and how it is affected by climate variability and change over multiple temporal scales.

  19. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  20. Climate Control Load Reduction Strategies for Electric Drive Vehicles in Warm Weather

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffers, M. A.; Chaney, L.; Rugh, J. P.

    2015-04-30

    Passenger compartment climate control is one of the largest auxiliary loads on a vehicle. Like conventional vehicles, electric vehicles (EVs) require climate control to maintain occupant comfort and safety, but cabin heating and air conditioning have a negative impact on driving range for all electric vehicles. Range reduction caused by climate control and other factors is a barrier to widespread adoption of EVs. Reducing the thermal loads on the climate control system will extend driving range, thereby reducing consumer range anxiety and increasing the market penetration of EVs. Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have investigated strategies for vehicle climate control load reduction, with special attention toward EVs. Outdoor vehicle thermal testing was conducted on two 2012 Ford Focus Electric vehicles to evaluate thermal management strategies for warm weather, including solar load reduction and cabin pre-ventilation. An advanced thermal test manikin was used to assess a zonal approach to climate control. In addition, vehicle thermal analysis was used to support testing by exploring thermal load reduction strategies, evaluating occupant thermal comfort, and calculating EV range impacts. Through stationary cooling tests and vehicle simulations, a zonal cooling configuration demonstrated range improvement of 6%-15%, depending on the drive cycle. A combined cooling configuration that incorporated thermal load reduction and zonal cooling strategies showed up to 33% improvement in EV range.

  1. Mixed severity fire effects within the Rim fire: Relative importance of local climate, fire weather, topography, and forest structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van R. Kane; C. Alina Cansler; Nicholas A. Povak; Jonathan T. Kane; Robert J. McGaughey; James A. Lutz; Derek J. Churchill; Malcolm P. North

    2015-01-01

    Recent and projected increases in the frequency and severity of large wildfires in the western U.S. makes understanding the factors that strongly affect landscape fire patterns a management priority for optimizing treatment location. We compared the influence of variations in the local environment on burn severity patterns on the large 2013 Rim fire that burned under...

  2. Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

  3. Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coughlan, E.R.; van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; van Aalst, M.; Jongman, B.; Klose, T.; Suarez, P.

    2015-01-01

    Disaster risk reduction efforts traditionally focus on long-term preventative measures or post-disaster response. Outside of these, there are many short-term actions, such as evacuation, that can be implemented in the period of time between a warning and a potential disaster to reduce the risk of

  4. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  5. Post-Palaeozoic evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda by tectonically controlled deep weathering and stripping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, R. G.; Howard, K. W. F.

    1998-11-01

    A model for the evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda is developed using available geotectonic, climatic, sedimentological and chronological data. The model demonstrates the pivotal role of tectonic uplift in inducing cycles of stripping, and tectonic quiescence for cycles of deep weathering. It is able to account for the development of key landforms, such as inselbergs and duricrust-capped plateaux, which previous hypotheses of landscape evolution that are based on climatic or eustatic controls are unable to explain. Development of the Ugandan landscape is traced back to the Permian. Following late Palaeozoic glaciation, a trend towards warmer and more humid climates through the Mesozoic enabled deep weathering of the Jurassic/mid-Cretaceous surface in Uganda during a period of prolonged tectonic quiescence. Uplift associated with the opening South Atlantic Ocean terminated this cycle and instigated a cycle of stripping between the mid-Cretaceous and early Miocene. Deep weathering on the succeeding Miocene to recent (African) surface has occurred from Miocene to present but has been interrupted in the areas adjacent to the western rift where development of a new drainage base level has prompted cycles of stripping in the Miocene and Pleistocene.

  6. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M; Gerlinger, K; Herrmann, N; Klein, R J.T.; Schneider, M; Sterr, H; Schellnhuber, H J

    2000-05-01

    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  7. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M.; Gerlinger, K.; Herrmann, N.; Klein, R.J.T.; Schneider, M.; Sterr, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2000-05-01

    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  8. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  9. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    OpenAIRE

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

  10. The NOAA Local Climate Analysis Tool - An Application in Support of a Weather Ready Nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeyeva, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M.

    2012-12-01

    Citizens across the U.S., including decision makers from the local to the national level, have a multitude of questions about climate, such as the current state and how that state fits into the historical context, and more importantly, how climate will impact them, especially with regard to linkages to extreme weather events. Developing answers to these types of questions for locations has typically required extensive work to gather data, conduct analyses, and generate relevant explanations and graphics. Too frequently providers don't have ready access to or knowledge of reliable, trusted data sets, nor sound, scientifically accepted analysis techniques such that they can provide a rapid response to queries they receive. In order to support National Weather Service (NWS) local office forecasters with information they need to deliver timely responses to climate-related questions from their customers, we have developed the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT). LCAT uses the principles of artificial intelligence to respond to queries, in particular, through use of machine technology that responds intelligently to input from users. A user translates customer questions into primary variables and issues and LCAT pulls the most relevant data and analysis techniques to provide information back to the user, who in turn responds to their customer. Most responses take on the order of 10 seconds, which includes providing statistics, graphical displays of information, translations for users, metadata, and a summary of the user request to LCAT. Applications in Phase I of LCAT, which is targeted for the NWS field offices, include Climate Change Impacts, Climate Variability Impacts, Drought Analysis and Impacts, Water Resources Applications, Attribution of Extreme Events, and analysis techniques such as time series analysis, trend analysis, compositing, and correlation and regression techniques. Data accessed by LCAT are homogenized historical COOP and Climate Prediction Center

  11. Intra and inter ‘local climate zone’ variability of air temperature as observed by crowdsourced citizen weather stations in Berlin, Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Fenner

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A one-year data set for the year 2015 of near-surface air temperature (T$T$, crowdsourced from ‘Netatmo’ citizen weather stations (CWS in Berlin, Germany, and surroundings was analysed. The CWS data set, which has been quality-checked and filtered in a previous study, consists of T$T$ measurements from several hundred CWS. It was investigated (1 how CWS are distributed among urban and rural environments, as represented by ‘local climate zones’ (LCZ, (2 how LCZ are characterised in T$T$ along the annual cycle and concerning intra-LCZ T$T$ variability, and (3 if significant T$T$ differences between LCZ (ΔT$\\Delta T$ can be detected with CWS data. Further, it was investigated how the results from CWS compare to reference data from standard meteorological measurement stations. It can be shown that all ‘urban’ LCZ are covered by CWS, but only few CWS are located in ‘natural’ LCZ (e.g. forests or urban parks. CWS data along the annual cycle show generally good agreement to reference data, though for some LCZ monthly means between both data sets differ up to 1 K. Intra-LCZ T$T$ variability is particularly large during night-time. Statistically significant ΔT$\\Delta T$ can be detected with CWS data between various LCZ pairs, particularly for structurally dissimilar LCZ, and the results are in agreement with existing literature on LCZ or the urban heat island. Furthermore, annual mean ΔT$\\Delta T$ in CWS data agree well with reference data, thus showing the potential of CWS data for long-term studies. Several challenges related to crowdsourced CWS data need further investigation, namely missing meta data, the non-standard measurement locations, the imbalanced availability in time and space, and potentials to combine CWS and reference data to benefit from the main advantages of both, i.e., the large number of stations and the high quality of data, respectively.

  12. Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra arthropods using weather and seasonal variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulp, I.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

  13. Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra Arthropods using weather and seasonal variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulp, I.Y.M.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

  14. Vehicle automation and weather : challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-25

    Adverse weather has major impacts on the safety and operations of all roads, from signalized arterials to Interstate highways. Weather affects driver behavior, vehicle performance, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure, thereby increasing the...

  15. Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-31

    Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

  16. Surficial weathering of iron sulfide mine tailings under semi-arid climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Sarah M; Root, Robert A; Perdrial, Nicolas; Maier, Raina; Chorover, Jon

    2014-09-15

    Mine wastes introduce anthropogenic weathering profiles to the critical zone that often remain unvegetated for decades after mining cessation. As such, they are vulnerable to wind and water dispersion of particulate matter to adjacent ecosystems and residential communities. In sulfide-rich ore tailings, propagation to depth of the oxidative weathering front controls the depth-variation in speciation of major and trace elements. Despite the prevalence of surficial mine waste deposits in arid regions of the globe, few prior studies have been conducted to resolve the near-surface profile of sulfide ore tailings weathered under semi-arid climate. We investigated relations between gossan oxidative reaction-front propagation and the molecular speciation of iron and sulfur in tailings subjected to weathering under semi-arid climate at an EPA Superfund Site in semi-arid central Arizona (USA). Here we report a multi-method data set combining wet chemical and synchrotron-based X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) methods to resolve the tight coupling of iron (Fe) and sulfur (S) geochemical changes in the top 2 m of tailings. Despite nearly invariant Fe and S concentration with depth (130-140 and 100-120 g kg -1 , respectively), a sharp redox gradient and distinct morphological change was observed within the top 0.5 m, associated with a progressive oxidative alteration of ferrous sulfides to (oxyhydr)oxides and (hydroxy)sulfates. Transformation is nearly complete in surficial samples. Trends in molecular-scale alteration were co-located with a decrease in pH from 7.3 to 2.3, and shifts in Fe and S lability as measured via chemical extraction. Initial weathering products, ferrihydrite and gypsum, transform to schwertmannite, then jarosite-group minerals with an accompanying decrease in pH. Interestingly, thermodynamically stable phases such as goethite and hematite were not detected in any samples, but ferrihydrite was observed even in

  17. Surficial weathering of iron sulfide mine tailings under semi-arid climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Sarah M.; Root, Robert A.; Perdrial, Nicolas; Maier, Raina M.; Chorover, Jon

    2014-09-01

    Mine wastes introduce anthropogenic weathering profiles to the critical zone that often remain unvegetated for decades after mining cessation. As such, they are vulnerable to wind and water dispersion of particulate matter to adjacent ecosystems and residential communities. In sulfide-rich ore tailings, propagation to depth of the oxidative weathering front controls the depth-variation in speciation of major and trace elements. Despite the prevalence of surficial mine waste deposits in arid regions of the globe, few prior studies have been conducted to resolve the near-surface profile of sulfide ore tailings weathered under semi-arid climate. We investigated relations between gossan oxidative reaction-front propagation and the molecular speciation of iron and sulfur in tailings subjected to weathering in a semi-arid climate at an EPA Superfund Site in central Arizona (USA). Here we report a multi-method data set combining wet chemical and synchrotron-based X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) methods to resolve the tight coupling of iron (Fe) and sulfur (S) geochemical changes in the top 2 m of tailings. Despite nearly invariant Fe and S concentration with depth (130-140 and 100-120 g kg-1, respectively), a sharp redox gradient and distinct morphological change was observed within the top 0.5 m, associated with a progressive oxidative alteration of ferrous sulfides to (oxyhydr)oxides and (hydroxy)sulfates. Transformation is nearly complete in surficial samples. Trends in molecular-scale alteration were co-located with a decrease in pH from 7.3 to 2.3, and shifts in Fe and S lability as measured via chemical extraction. Initial weathering products, ferrihydrite and gypsum, transform to schwertmannite, then jarosite-group minerals with an accompanying decrease in pH. Interestingly, thermodynamically stable phases such as goethite and hematite were not detected in any samples, but ferrihydrite was observed even in samples with

  18. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  19. Hourly test reference weather data in the changing climate of Finland for building energy simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsti Jylhä

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic building energy simulations need hourly weather data as input. The same high temporal resolution is required for assessments of future heating and cooling energy demand. The data presented in this article concern current typical values and estimated future changes in outdoor air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and global, diffuse and normal solar radiation components. Simulated annual and seasonal delivered energy consumptions for heating of spaces, heating of ventilation supply air and cooling of spaces in the current and future climatic conditions are also presented for an example house, with district heating and a mechanical space cooling system. We provide details on how the synthetic future weather files were created and utilised as input data for dynamic building energy simulations by the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy program and also for calculations of heating and cooling degree-day sums. The information supplied here is related to the research article titled “Energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential houses in Finland in a changing climate” [1].

  20. Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO2 through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Pollard

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying how C fluxes will change in the future is a complex task for models because of the coupling between climate, hydrology, and biogeochemical reactions. Here we investigate how pedogenesis of the Peoria loess, which has been weathering for the last 13 kyr, will respond over the next 100 yr of climate change. Using a cascade of numerical models for climate (ARPEGE, vegetation (CARAIB and weathering (WITCH, we explore the effect of an increase in CO2 of 315 ppmv (1950 to 700 ppmv (2100 projection. The increasing CO2 results in an increase in temperature along the entire transect. In contrast, drainage increases slightly for a focus pedon in the south but decreases strongly in the north. These two variables largely determine the behavior of weathering. In addition, although CO2 production rate increases in the soils in response to global warming, the rate of diffusion back to the atmosphere also increases, maintaining a roughly constant or even decreasing CO2 concentration in the soil gas phase. Our simulations predict that temperature increasing in the next 100 yr causes the weathering rates of the silicates to increase into the future. In contrast, the weathering rate of dolomite – which consumes most of the CO2 – decreases in both end members (south and north of the transect due to its retrograde solubility. We thus infer slower rates of advance of the dolomite reaction front into the subsurface, and faster rates of advance of the silicate reaction front. However, additional simulations for 9 pedons located along the north–south transect show that the dolomite weathering advance rate will increase in the central part of the Mississippi Valley, owing to a maximum in the response of vertical drainage to the ongoing climate change. The carbonate reaction front can be likened to a terrestrial lysocline because it represents a depth interval over which carbonate dissolution rates increase drastically. However, in contrast to the lower

  1. The sun and space weather Second Edition

    CERN Document Server

    Hanslmeier, Arnold

    2007-01-01

    This second edition is a great enhancement of literature which will help the reader get deeper into the specific topics. There are new sections included such as space weather data sources and examples, new satellite missions, and the latest results. At the end a comprehensive index is given which will allow the reader to quickly find his topics of interest. The Sun and Space weather are two rapidly evolving topics. The importance of the Sun for the Earth, life on Earth, climate and weather processes was recognized long ago by the ancients. Now, for the first time there is a continuous surveillance of solar activity at nearly all wavelengths. These data can be used to improve our understanding of the complex Sun-Earth interaction. The first chapters of the book deal with the Sun as a star and its activity phenomena as well as its activity cycle in order to understand the complex physics of the Sun-Earth system. The reader will see that there are many phenomena but still no definite explanations and models exis...

  2. Climate change: linking traditional and scientific knowledge

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Riewe, R. R. (Roderick R.); Oakes, Jill E. (Jill Elizabeth)

    2006-01-01

    This book includes papers written by over 50 community experts and scientists addressing theoretical concerns, knowledge transfer, adapting to climate change, implications of changing weather, water...

  3. Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

  4. Climatology of salt transitions and implications for stone weathering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grossi, C.M.; Brimblecombe, P.; Menendez, B.; Benavente, D.; Harris, I.; Deque, M.

    2011-01-01

    This work introduces the notion of salt climatology. It shows how climate affects salt thermodynamic and the potential to relate long-term salt damage to climate types. It mainly focuses on specific sites in Western Europe, which include some cities in France and Peninsular Spain. Salt damage was parameterised using the number of dissolution-crystallisation events for unhydrated (sodium chloride) and hydrated (sodium sulphate) systems. These phase transitions have been calculated using daily temperature and relative humidity from observation meteorological data and Climate Change models' output (HadCM3 and ARPEGE). Comparing the number of transitions with meteorological seasonal data allowed us to develop techniques to estimate the frequency of salt transitions based on the local climatology. Results show that it is possible to associate the Koeppen-Geiger climate types with potential salt weathering. Temperate fully humid climates seem to offer the highest potential for salt damage and possible higher number of transitions in summer. Climates with dry summers tend to show a lesser frequency of transitions in summer. The analysis of temperature, precipitation and relative output from Climate Change models suggests changes in the Koeppen-Geiger climate types and changes in the patterns of salt damage. For instance, West Europe areas with a fully humid climate may change to a more Mediterranean like or dry climates, and consequently the seasonality of different salt transitions. The accuracy and reliability of the projections might be improved by simultaneously running multiple climate models (ensembles). - Research highlights: → We introduce the notion of salt climatology for heritage conservation. → Climate affects salt thermodynamics on building materials. → We associate Koeppen-Geiger climate types with potential salt weathering. → We offer future projections of salt damage in Western Europe due to climate change. → Humid climate areas may change to

  5. Climatology of salt transitions and implications for stone weathering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grossi, C.M., E-mail: c.grossi-sampedro@uea.ac.uk [School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom); Brimblecombe, P. [School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom); Menendez, B. [Geosciences et Environnement Cergy, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise 95031 Cergy-Pontoise cedex (France); Benavente, D. [Lab. Petrologia Aplicada, Unidad Asociada UA-CSIC, Dpto. Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Alicante, Alicante 03080 (Spain); Harris, I. [Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom); Deque, M. [Meteo-France/CNRM, CNRS/GAME, 42 Avenue Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, Cedex 01 (France)

    2011-06-01

    This work introduces the notion of salt climatology. It shows how climate affects salt thermodynamic and the potential to relate long-term salt damage to climate types. It mainly focuses on specific sites in Western Europe, which include some cities in France and Peninsular Spain. Salt damage was parameterised using the number of dissolution-crystallisation events for unhydrated (sodium chloride) and hydrated (sodium sulphate) systems. These phase transitions have been calculated using daily temperature and relative humidity from observation meteorological data and Climate Change models' output (HadCM3 and ARPEGE). Comparing the number of transitions with meteorological seasonal data allowed us to develop techniques to estimate the frequency of salt transitions based on the local climatology. Results show that it is possible to associate the Koeppen-Geiger climate types with potential salt weathering. Temperate fully humid climates seem to offer the highest potential for salt damage and possible higher number of transitions in summer. Climates with dry summers tend to show a lesser frequency of transitions in summer. The analysis of temperature, precipitation and relative output from Climate Change models suggests changes in the Koeppen-Geiger climate types and changes in the patterns of salt damage. For instance, West Europe areas with a fully humid climate may change to a more Mediterranean like or dry climates, and consequently the seasonality of different salt transitions. The accuracy and reliability of the projections might be improved by simultaneously running multiple climate models (ensembles). - Research highlights: {yields} We introduce the notion of salt climatology for heritage conservation. {yields} Climate affects salt thermodynamics on building materials. {yields} We associate Koeppen-Geiger climate types with potential salt weathering. {yields} We offer future projections of salt damage in Western Europe due to climate change. {yields} Humid

  6. Visualization of uncertainty and ensemble data: Exploration of climate modeling and weather forecast data with integrated ViSUS-CDAT systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, Kristin; Pascucci, Valerio; Johhson, Chris; Wilson, Andrew; Bremer, Peer-Timo; Williams, Dean; Doutriaux, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Climate scientists and meteorologists are working towards a better understanding of atmospheric conditions and global climate change. To explore the relationships present in numerical predictions of the atmosphere, ensemble datasets are produced that combine time- and spatially-varying simulations generated using multiple numeric models, sampled input conditions, and perturbed parameters. These data sets mitigate as well as describe the uncertainty present in the data by providing insight into the effects of parameter perturbation, sensitivity to initial conditions, and inconsistencies in model outcomes. As such, massive amounts of data are produced, creating challenges both in data analysis and in visualization. This work presents an approach to understanding ensembles by using a collection of statistical descriptors to summarize the data, and displaying these descriptors using variety of visualization techniques which are familiar to domain experts. The resulting techniques are integrated into the ViSUS/Climate Data and Analysis Tools (CDAT) system designed to provide a directly accessible, complex visualization framework to atmospheric researchers.

  7. Modulation of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic climate by variable drawdown of atmospheric pCO2 from weathering of basaltic provinces on continents drifting through the equatorial humid belt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Kent

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The small reservoir of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (pCO2 that modulates climate through the greenhouse effect reflects a delicate balance between large fluxes of sources and sinks. The major long-term source of CO2 is global outgassing from sea-floor spreading, subduction, hotspot activity, and metamorphism; the ultimate sink is through weathering of continental silicates and deposition of carbonates. Most carbon cycle models are driven by changes in the source flux scaled to variable rates of ocean floor production, but ocean floor production may not be distinguishable from being steady since 180 Ma. We evaluate potential changes in sources and sinks of CO2 for the past 120 Ma in a paleogeographic context. Our new calculations show that decarbonation of pelagic sediments by Tethyan subduction contributed only modestly to generally high pCO2 levels from the Late Cretaceous until the early Eocene, and thus shutdown of this CO2 source with the collision of India and Asia at the early Eocene climate optimum at around 50 Ma was inadequate to account for the large and prolonged decrease in pCO2 that eventually allowed the growth of significant Antarctic ice sheets by around 34 Ma. Instead, variation in area of continental basalt terranes in the equatorial humid belt (5° S–5° N seems to be a dominant factor controlling how much CO2 is retained in the atmosphere via the silicate weathering feedback. The arrival of the highly weatherable Deccan Traps in the equatorial humid belt at around 50 Ma was decisive in initiating the long-term slide to lower atmospheric pCO2, which was pushed further down by the emplacement of the 30 Ma Ethiopian Traps near the equator and the southerly tectonic extrusion of SE Asia, an arc terrane that presently is estimated to account for 1/4 of CO2 consumption from all basaltic provinces that account for ~1/3 of the total CO2 consumption by continental silicate weathering (Dessert et al., 2003. A negative climate

  8. Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data - Regional Climate Maps:

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site government Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > U.S. Climate Data > ; Precipitation & Temperature > Regional Climate Maps: USA Menu Weekly 1-Month 3-Month 12-Month Weekly

  9. Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

  10. GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David; Nyenhuis, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin; Pappenberger, Florian

    2013-04-01

    "Understanding the Earth system — its weather, climate, oceans, atmosphere, water, land, geodynamics, natural resources, ecosystems, and natural and human-induced hazards — is crucial to enhancing human health, safety and welfare, alleviating human suffering including poverty, protecting the global environment, reducing disaster losses, and achieving sustainable development. Observations of the Earth system constitute critical input for advancing this understanding." With this in mind, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) started implementing the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOWOW, short for "GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water", is supporting this objective. GEOWOW's main challenge is to improve Earth observation data discovery, accessibility and exploitability, and to evolve GEOSS in terms of interoperability, standardization and functionality. One of the main goals behind the GEOWOW project is to demonstrate the value of the TIGGE archive in interdisciplinary applications, providing a vast amount of useful and easily accessible information to the users through the GEO Common Infrastructure (GCI). GEOWOW aims at developing funcionalities that will allow easy discovery, access and use of TIGGE archive data and of in-situ observations, e.g. from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), to support applications such as river discharge forecasting.TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) is a key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. The TIGGE archive consists of ensemble weather forecast data from ten global NWP centres, starting from October 2006, which has been made available for scientific research. The TIGGE archive has been used to analyse hydro-meteorological forecasts of flooding in Europe as well as in China. In general the analysis has been favourable in terms of

  11. Stormy weather: 101 solutions to global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dauncey, G.; Mazza, P.

    2001-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive guide to energy efficiency measures that would rid the world of the threat of global warming caused by the wasteful use of hydrocarbon fuels and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. The actions to be taken are not directed to governments and industry alone; indeed, the change must involve every segment of society to be effective. Accordingly, the book recommends actions that could be taken by individuals, citizen organizations, municipalities, businesses and organizations, energy companies, automobile companies, states and provinces, national governments, developing nations and global solutions. The recommendations range from choosing energy efficient appliances and buying green power, through increased recycling, reuse and reduced consumption, building solar and other renewable energy capacity, using sustainable fuels in automobiles, introducing tax measures favouring energy efficiency and sustainable development, to launching macro-level plans for a global green deal, establishing a global climate fund, accelerating the phase-out of CHCs, HCFCs and HFCs, forming a global ecological alliance and declaring a century of ecological restoration. Bibliographic notes, illustrations

  12. Weather and the Built Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course provides broadcast meteorologists, educators, and the public with an overview of the evolution of our modern urban environment with a focus on impacts on the urban watershed, air quality, and climate.

  13. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

    2002-01-01

    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  14. Can we expect to predict climate if we cannot shadow weather?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Leonard

    2010-05-01

    What limits our ability to predict (or project) useful statistics of future climate? And how might we quantify those limits? In the early 1960s, Ed Lorenz illustrated one constraint on point forecasts of the weather (chaos) while noting another (model imperfections). In the mid-sixties he went on to discuss climate prediction, noting that chaos, per se, need not limit accurate forecasts of averages and the distributions that define climate. In short, chaos might place draconian limits on what we can say about a particular summer day in 2010 (or 2040), but it need not limit our ability to make accurate and informative statements about the weather over this summer as a whole, or climate distributions of the 2040's. If not chaos, what limits our ability to produce decision relevant probability distribution functions (PDFs)? Is this just a question of technology (raw computer power) and uncertain boundary conditions (emission scenarios)? Arguably, current model simulations of the Earth's climate are limited by model inadequacy: not that the initial or boundary conditions are unknown but that state-of-the-art models would not yield decision-relevant probability distributions even if they were known. Or to place this statement in an empirically falsifiable format: that in 2100 when the boundary conditions are known and computer power is (hopefully) sufficient to allow exhaustive exploration of today's state-of-the-art models: we will find today's models do not admit a trajectory consistent with our knowledge of the state of the earth in 2009 which would prove of decision support relevance for, say, 25 km, hourly resolution. In short: today's models cannot shadow the weather of this century even after the fact. Restating this conjecture in a more positive frame: a 2100 historian of science will be able to determine the highest space and time scales on which 2009 models could have (i) produced trajectories plausibly consistent with the (by then) observed twenty

  15. Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.

    Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

  16. Capturing the WUnder: Using weather stations and WeatherUnderground to increase middle school students' understanding and interest in science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schild, K. M.; Dunne, P.

    2014-12-01

    New models of elementary- and middle-school level science education are emerging in response to the need for science literacy and the development of the Next Generation Science Standards. One of these models is fostered through the NSF's Graduate Teaching Fellows in K-12 Education (GK-12) program, which pairs a graduate fellow with a science teacher at a local school for an entire school year. In our project, a PhD Earth Sciences student was paired with a local middle school science teacher with the goal of installing a weather station, and incorporating the station data into the 8th grade science curriculum. Here we discuss how we were able to use a school weather station to introduce weather and climate material, engage and involve students in the creative process of science, and motivate students through inquiry-based lessons. In using a weather station as the starting point for material, we were able to make science tangible for students and provide an opportunity for each student to experience the entire process of scientific inquiry. This hands-on approach resulted in a more thorough understanding the system beyond a knowledge of the components, and was particularly effective in challenging prior weather and climate misconceptions. We were also able to expand the reach of the lessons by connecting with other weather stations in our region and even globally, enabling the students to become members of a larger system.

  17. Meteorology and Climate Inspire Secondary Science Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Maskell, Kathy; Reynolds, Ross; South, Rachel; Wood, Curtis

    2010-01-01

    As part of its National Science and Engineering Week activities in 2009 and 2010, the University of Reading organised two open days for 60 local key stage 4 pupils. The theme of both open days was "How do we predict weather and climate?" Making use of the students' familiarity with weather and climate, several concepts of relevance to secondary…

  18. The interdecadal worsening of weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in the Beijing area in relation to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhong, Junting; Wang, Jizhi; Wang, Yaqiang; Liu, Yanju

    2018-04-01

    The weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its vicinity (BIV) in wintertime have worsened in recent years, particularly after 2010. The relation between interdecadal changes in weather conditions and climate warming is uncertain. Here, we analyze long-term variations of an integrated pollution-linked meteorological index (which is approximately and linearly related to aerosol pollution), the extent of changes in vertical temperature differences in the boundary layer (BL) in BIV, and northerly surface winds from Lake Baikal during wintertime to evaluate the potential contribution of climate warming to changes in meteorological conditions directly related to aerosol pollution in this area; this is accomplished using NCEP reanalysis data, surface observations, and long-term vertical balloon sounding observations since 1960. The weather conditions affecting BIV aerosol pollution are found to have worsened since the 1960s as a whole. This worsening is more significant after 2010, with PM2.5 reaching unprecedented high levels in many cities in China, particularly in BIV. The decadal worsening of meteorological conditions in BIV can partly be attributed to climate warming, which is defined by more warming in the higher layers of the boundary layer (BL) than the lower layers. This worsening can also be influenced by the accumulation of aerosol pollution, to a certain extent (particularly after 2010), because the increase in aerosol pollution from the ground leads to surface cooling by aerosol-radiation interactions, which facilitates temperature inversions, increases moisture accumulations, and results in the extra deterioration of meteorological conditions. If analyzed as a linear trend, weather conditions have worsened by ˜ 4 % each year from 2010 to 2017. Given such a deterioration rate, the worsening of weather conditions may lead to a corresponding amplitude increase in PM2.5 in BIV during wintertime in the next 5 years (i.e., 2018 to 2022

  19. Climate Prediction Center - Forecasts & Outlook Maps, Graphs and Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News list below The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is responsible for issuing seasonal climate outlook maps , and National Centers for Environmental Prediction). These weather and climate products comprise the

  20. Climate Trends and Impacts in China

    OpenAIRE

    Chris Sall

    2013-01-01

    This discussion paper summarizes observed and projected trends in extreme weather events, present-day climate variability, and future climate change and their impacts on China's different regions. Findings are presented from China's national assessment report on climate change (2007) and second national assessment report on climate change (2011) as well as other studies by Chinese and inte...

  1. Space weather and space anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

  2. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  3. Extinction of an introduced warm-climate alien species, Xenopus laevis, by extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinsley, Richard C; Stott, Lucy C; Viney, Mark E; Mable, Barbara K; Tinsley, Matthew C

    Invasive, non-native species represent a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. The African amphibian Xenopus laevis is widely regarded as an invasive species and a threat to local faunas. Populations originating at the Western Cape, South Africa, have been introduced on four continents, mostly in areas with a similar Mediterranean climate. Some introduced populations are also established in cooler environments where persistence for many decades suggests a capacity for long-term adaptation. In these cases, recent climate warming might enhance invasion ability, favouring range expansion, population growth and negative effects on native faunas. In the cool temperate UK, populations have been established for about 50 years in Wales and for an unknown period, probably >20 years, in England (Lincolnshire). Our field studies over 30 and 10 years, respectively, show that in favourable conditions there may be good recruitment, fast individual growth rates and large body size; maximum longevity exceeds 23 years. Nevertheless, areas of distribution remained limited, with numbers extinct. The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 experienced extreme cold and drought (December 2010 was the coldest in 120 years and the third driest in 100 years). The extinction of X. laevis in these areas indicates that even relatively long-established alien species remain vulnerable to rare extreme weather conditions.

  4. Developmental phenotypic plasticity helps bridge stochastic weather events associated with climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burggren, Warren

    2018-05-10

    The slow, inexorable rise in annual average global temperatures and acidification of the oceans are often advanced as consequences of global change. However, many environmental changes, especially those involving weather (as opposed to climate), are often stochastic, variable and extreme, particularly in temperate terrestrial or freshwater habitats. Moreover, few studies of animal and plant phenotypic plasticity employ realistic (i.e. short-term, stochastic) environmental change in their protocols. Here, I posit that the frequently abrupt environmental changes (days, weeks, months) accompanying much longer-term general climate change (e.g. global warming over decades or centuries) require consideration of the true nature of environmental change (as opposed to statistical means) coupled with an expansion of focus to consider developmental phenotypic plasticity. Such plasticity can be in multiple forms - obligatory/facultative, beneficial/deleterious - depending upon the degree and rate of environmental variability at specific points in organismal development. Essentially, adult phenotypic plasticity, as important as it is, will be irrelevant if developing offspring lack sufficient plasticity to create modified phenotypes necessary for survival. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  5. Evaluating the quality and usability of crowdsourced weather data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koole, Martijn; Siegmund, Peter

    2016-04-01

    In April 2015 the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) launched the Weather Observations Website (WOW-NL, https://wow.knmi.nl/) in the Netherlands in cooperation with the UK Met Office, who launched a similar WOW-UK website in 2011. WOW-NL functions as a platform to collect weather data that is measured by amateurs or organizations who own an automatic weather station. Such data can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of existing observation networks. This can be meaningful for better understanding of e.g. urban climate (urban heat islands) and the occurrence of extreme meteorological events. In November 2015 the number of Dutch participants of WOW-NL was approximately 250. The following meteorological parameters are uploaded to the website every 10 minutes: air temperature, air pressure, rainfall rate, humidity, wind speed and wind direction. To get an idea about the location and environment at which the weather stations are placed, participants are asked to rate their station based on exposure, type of devices used and the level of urbanization. They can also specify the elevation and add a short description of the equipment that is used. This study examines the quality of the crowd-sourced weather data by using interpolated weather data that is measured at official weather stations that are operated by KNMI. Measurements at amateur stations are compared with the interpolated measurements and differences are explained using the metadata that the participants specified. A number of days is selected where interesting meteorological situations occurred, such as extremely hot weather, cold fronts, rain fronts or heavy winds. Based on this, recommendations are presented about possible applications of crowd-sourced weather data with respect to the quality level.

  6. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Watari

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  7. Evaluation of fertilizer and water management effect on rice performance and greenhouse gas intensity in different seasonal weather of tropical climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Hyun-Hwoi; Hayashi, Keiichi; Agbisit, Ruth; Villegas-Pangga, Gina

    2017-12-01

    Intensively double cropping rice increases greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in tropical countries, and hence, finding better management practices is imperative for reducing global warming potential (GWP), while sustaining rice yield. This study demonstrated an efficient fertilizer and water management practice targeting seasonal weather conditions effects on rice productivity, nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), GWP, and GHG intensity (GHGI). Two-season experiments were conducted with two pot-scale experiments using urea and urea+cattle manure (CM) under continuous flooding (CF) during the wet season (2013WS), and urea with/without CaSiO 3 application under alternate wetting and drying (AWD) during the dry season (2014DS). In 2013WS, 120kgNha -1 of urea fertilizer resulted in lower CH 4 emission and similar rice production compared to urea+CM. In 2014DS, CaSiO 3 application showed no difference in yields and led to significant reduction of N 2 O emission, but increased CH 4 emission and GWP. Due to significant increases in GHG emissions in urea+CM and CaSiO 3 application, we compared a seasonal difference in a local rice cultivation to test two water management practices. CF was adopted during 2013WS while AWD was adopted during 2014DS. Greater grain yields and yield components and NUE were obtained in 2014DS than in 2013WS. Furthermore, higher grain yields contributed to similar values of GHGI although GWP of cumulative GHG emissions was increased in 2014DS. Thus, utilizing urea only application under AWD is a preferred practice to minimize GWP without yield decline for double cropping rice in tropical countries. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

    2017-12-01

    The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

  9. Under the weather?-The direct effects of climate warming on a threatened desert lizard are mediated by their activity phase and burrow system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Danae; Stow, Adam; Kearney, Michael Ray

    2018-05-01

    For ectotherms such as lizards, the importance of behavioural thermoregulation in avoiding thermal extremes is well-established and is increasingly acknowledged in modern studies of climate warming and its impacts. Less appreciated and understood are the buffering roles of retreat sites and activity phase, in part because of logistical challenges of studying below-ground activity. Burrowing and nocturnal activity are key behavioural adaptations that have enabled a diverse range of reptiles to survive extreme environmental temperatures within hot desert regions. Yet, the direct impact of recent global warming on activity potential has been hypothesised to have caused extinctions in desert lizards, including the Australian arid zone skink Liopholis kintorei. We test the relevance of this hypothesis through a detailed characterisation of the above- and below-ground thermal and hydric microclimates available to, and used by, L. kintorei. We integrate operative temperatures with observed body temperatures to construct daily activity budgets, including the inference of subterranean behaviour. We then assess the likelihood that contemporary and future local extinctions in this species, and those of similar burrowing habits, could be explained by the direct effects of warming on its activity budget and exposure to thermal extremes. We found that L. kintorei spent only 4% of its time active on the surface, primarily at dusk, and that overall potential surface activity will be increased, not restricted, with climate warming. The burrow system provides an exceptional buffer to current and future maximum extremes of temperature (≈40°C reduction from potential surface temperatures), and desiccation (burrows near 100% humidity). Therefore, any climate warming impacts on this species are likely to be indirect. Our findings reflect the general buffering capacity of underground microclimates, therefore, our conclusions for L. kintorei are more generally applicable to

  10. Arts and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cegnar, T.

    2010-09-01

    Arts and climate science have more in common points than it appears at first glance. Artistic works can help us to directly or indirectly learn about climatic conditions and weather events in the past, but are also very efficient in raising awareness about climate change nowadays. Long scientific articles get very little response among general public, because most people don't want to read long articles. There is a need to communicate climate change issues more powerfully and more directly, with simple words, pictures, sculptures, installations. Artistic works can inspire people to take concrete action. A number of communication media can fit this purpose. Artists can speak to people on an emotional and intellectual level; they can help people to see things from another perspective and in new ways. Artists can motivate change; they have the freedom to weave facts, opinions, thoughts, emotion and colour all together. Paintings are witnesses of the past climatic conditions. We can learn from paintings, architectural constructions and sculptures about the vegetation, weather events, animals, and way of living. Mentioning only some few examples: old paintings in caves, also Flemish painters are often shown for their winter landscapes, and paintings are very useful to illustrate how fast glaciers are melting. At the end, we shall not forget that dilapidation of art masterpieces often depends on climatic conditions.

  11. Disclosure of weather risks of European Utilities : Assessment of the current situation of listed utilities domiciled in Germany, France, Austria, United Kingdom and Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Leibfried, Peter; Schuchter, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    With regards to the scientific fact about climate change, weather risk is of increased importance to companies in weather dependent industries. Increasing volatility in temperatures and precipitation as well as unseasonal weather result in increased financial risk to weather dependent companies. This white paper assesses the current situation disclosure of weather dependency and weather risks of European exchange listed companies with the aim to promote transparency in risk reporting to ...

  12. Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

    2010-01-01

    Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

  13. Climatic impact on isovolumetric weathering of a coarse-grained schist in the northern Piedmont Province of the central Atlantic states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleaves, E.T.

    1993-01-01

    The possible impact of periglacial climates on the rate of chemical weathering of a coarse-grained plagioclase-muscovite-quartz schist has been determined for a small watershed near Baltimore, Maryland. The isovolumetric chemical weathering model formulated from the geochemical mass balance study of the watershed shows that the weathering front advances at a velocity of 9.1 m/m.y., if the modern environmental parameters remain the same back through time. However, recent surficial geological mapping demonstrates that periglacial climates have impacted the area. Such an impact significantly affects two key chemical weathering parameters, the concentration of CO2 in the soil and groundwater moving past the weathering front. Depending upon the assumptions used in the model, the rate of saprolitization varies from 2.2 to 5.3 m/m.y. The possible impact of periglacial processes suggested by the chemical weathering rates indicates a need to reconsider theories of landscape evolution as they apply to the northern Piedmont Province of the mid-Atlantic states. I suggest that from the Late Miocene to the present that the major rivers have become incised in their present locations; this incision has enhanced groundwater circulation and chemical weathering such that crystalline rocks beneath interfluvial areas remain mantled by saprolite; and the saprolite mantle has been partially stripped as periglacial conditions alternate with humid-temperate conditions. ?? 1993.

  14. Road weather information for travelers : improving road weather messages and dissemination methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) recently completed a study titled Human Factors Analysis of Road Weather Advisory and Control Information (Publication No. FHWAJPO- 10-053). The goal of the study was to...

  15. Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Outreach > Publications > Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Forecast Climate Diagnostics

  16. Irrigation as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change: The Relative Influence of Groundwater and Canal Irrigation on Winter Crop Production and its Sensitivity to Weather Variability in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, M.; Fishman, R.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; Naeem, S.; Modi, V.; DeFries, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    India is a hotspot for food security issues over the upcoming decades, due to increasing population pressures, groundwater depletion, and climate change. Investing in additional irrigation infrastructure may bolster food security, however, the relative influence of different types of irrigation (e.g. groundwater versus canal) on agricultural production remains unclear. One reason that the relative impact of different irrigation strategies on agricultural production has not been analyzed across India is because national-scale data on crop production and the types of irrigation technologies used are typically available at too coarse of spatial and temporal resolutions to answer this question adequately. Thus, we develop a novel algorithm to map cropped area across India at a 1 x 1 km scale using MODIS satellite data, and link these high-resolution cropped area maps with village-level data (n = 600,000) on irrigation. This allowed us to assess the relative impact of groundwater (i.e. dug, shallow, and deep wells) and canal irrigation (i.e. surface lift and flow canals) on winter cropped area and its sensitivity to rainfall across India at the village-scale from 2000 to 2006. We find that deep well irrigation is both associated with the greatest amount of winter cropped area, and is also the least sensitive to monsoon and winter rainfall variability. However, the effectiveness of deep well irrigation varies across India, with the greatest benefits seen in the regions that are most at risk for losing groundwater as a possible source of irrigation over the upcoming decades (e.g. Northwest India). This work highlights the need to develop ways to use remaining groundwater more efficiently (e.g. drip irrigation, less water-intensive crops) given that canal irrigation is not an adequate substitute, particularly in the regions that are facing the greatest levels of groundwater depletion.

  17. Connecting stakeholders and climate science: A summary of farmer, rancher, and forester climate data needs and climate change attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mission of the USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is to provide farmers, ranchers and forest land owners and managers with information and resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. As such, a clear understanding of landowner needs for weather and climate data and their attitudes abo...

  18. Types of Forecast and Weather-Related Information Used among Tourism Businesses in Coastal North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayscue, Emily P.

    This study profiles the coastal tourism sector, a large and diverse consumer of climate and weather information. It is crucial to provide reliable, accurate and relevant resources for the climate and weather-sensitive portions of this stakeholder group in order to guide them in capitalizing on current climate and weather conditions and to prepare them for potential changes. An online survey of tourism business owners, managers and support specialists was conducted within the eight North Carolina oceanfront counties asking respondents about forecasts they use and for what purposes as well as why certain forecasts are not used. Respondents were also asked about their perceived dependency of their business on climate and weather as well as how valuable different forecasts are to their decision-making. Business types represented include: Agriculture, Outdoor Recreation, Accommodations, Food Services, Parks and Heritage, and Other. Weekly forecasts were the most popular forecasts with Monthly and Seasonal being the least used. MANOVA and ANOVA analyses revealed outdoor-oriented businesses (Agriculture and Outdoor Recreation) as perceiving themselves significantly more dependent on climate and weather than indoor-oriented ones (Food Services and Accommodations). Outdoor businesses also valued short-range forecasts significantly more than indoor businesses. This suggests a positive relationship between perceived climate and weather dependency and forecast value. The low perceived dependency and value of short-range forecasts of indoor businesses presents an opportunity to create climate and weather information resources directed at how they can capitalize on positive climate and weather forecasts and how to counter negative effects with forecasted adverse conditions. The low use of long-range forecasts among all business types can be related to the low value placed on these forecasts. However, these forecasts are still important in that they are used to make more

  19. [Perceived pain and weather changes in rheumatic patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, L Cunha; Parente, M; Silva, C; Clemente-Coelho, P; Santos, H; Cortes, S; Medeiros, D; Ribeiro, J Saraiva; Barcelos, F; Sousa, M; Miguel, C; Figueiredo, R; Mediavilla, M; Simões, E; Silva, M; Patto, J Vaz; Madeira, H; Ferreira, J; Micaelo, M; Leitão, R; Las, V; Faustino, A; Teixeira, A

    2007-01-01

    Rheumatic patients with chronic pain describe in a vivid way the influence of climate on pain and disease activity. Several studies seem to confirm this association. To evaluate and compare in a population of rheumatic patients the perceived influence of weather changes on pain and disease activity This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. For three weeks an assisted self-reported questionnaire with nine dimensions and a VAS pain scale was performed on consecutive out-patients in our clinic. 955 patients 787 female 168 male mean age 57.9 years with several rheumatologic diagnosis were evaluated. Overall 70 of the patients believed that the weather influenced their disease and 40 believed that the influence was high. Morning stiffness was influenced in 54 high influenced in 34 . Autumn and Winter were the most influential periods as well as humidity 67 and low temperatures 59 . In our study as well as in literature we found that a high percentage of patients 70 perceived that weather conditions influenced their pain and disease. Fibromyalgia patients seemed to be strongly influenced by weather changes. Our study confirms that patients perception on the influence of climate on pain and therefore their disease is an important clinical factor and it should be considered when evaluating rheumatic patients.

  20. Tile Low Rank Cholesky Factorization for Climate/Weather Modeling Applications on Manycore Architectures

    KAUST Repository

    Akbudak, Kadir; Ltaief, Hatem; Mikhalev, Aleksandr; Keyes, David E.

    2017-01-01

    Covariance matrices are ubiquitous in computational science and engineering. In particular, large covariance matrices arise from multivariate spatial data sets, for instance, in climate/weather modeling applications to improve prediction using statistical methods and spatial data. One of the most time-consuming computational steps consists in calculating the Cholesky factorization of the symmetric, positive-definite covariance matrix problem. The structure of such covariance matrices is also often data-sparse, in other words, effectively of low rank, though formally dense. While not typically globally of low rank, covariance matrices in which correlation decays with distance are nearly always hierarchically of low rank. While symmetry and positive definiteness should be, and nearly always are, exploited for performance purposes, exploiting low rank character in this context is very recent, and will be a key to solving these challenging problems at large-scale dimensions. The authors design a new and flexible tile row rank Cholesky factorization and propose a high performance implementation using OpenMP task-based programming model on various leading-edge manycore architectures. Performance comparisons and memory footprint saving on up to 200K×200K covariance matrix size show a gain of more than an order of magnitude for both metrics, against state-of-the-art open-source and vendor optimized numerical libraries, while preserving the numerical accuracy fidelity of the original model. This research represents an important milestone in enabling large-scale simulations for covariance-based scientific applications.

  1. Tile Low Rank Cholesky Factorization for Climate/Weather Modeling Applications on Manycore Architectures

    KAUST Repository

    Akbudak, Kadir

    2017-05-11

    Covariance matrices are ubiquitous in computational science and engineering. In particular, large covariance matrices arise from multivariate spatial data sets, for instance, in climate/weather modeling applications to improve prediction using statistical methods and spatial data. One of the most time-consuming computational steps consists in calculating the Cholesky factorization of the symmetric, positive-definite covariance matrix problem. The structure of such covariance matrices is also often data-sparse, in other words, effectively of low rank, though formally dense. While not typically globally of low rank, covariance matrices in which correlation decays with distance are nearly always hierarchically of low rank. While symmetry and positive definiteness should be, and nearly always are, exploited for performance purposes, exploiting low rank character in this context is very recent, and will be a key to solving these challenging problems at large-scale dimensions. The authors design a new and flexible tile row rank Cholesky factorization and propose a high performance implementation using OpenMP task-based programming model on various leading-edge manycore architectures. Performance comparisons and memory footprint saving on up to 200K×200K covariance matrix size show a gain of more than an order of magnitude for both metrics, against state-of-the-art open-source and vendor optimized numerical libraries, while preserving the numerical accuracy fidelity of the original model. This research represents an important milestone in enabling large-scale simulations for covariance-based scientific applications.

  2. Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Oceanic & Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Monitoring Weather & Climate in Realtime Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Preliminary Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Figures Monthly Atmospheric & Sea Surface

  3. Weather and Air Quality Data of Helsinki

    OpenAIRE

    Bhuiyan, Fairuz

    2016-01-01

    The topic of this thesis is “Weather and air quality data of Helsinki” and the main objective was researching, analyzing and classifying the contents and of the weather and air quality data for the Cityzer project. The final objective was to map and understand the data and the business ecosystem around it, and then classify the data and paint a picture of the whole ecosystem around the data. The aim was to work with the weather companies and partners, such as Vaisala, Pegasor, The Finnish...

  4. Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Y; Fu, J S; Drake, J B; Liu, Y; Lamarque, J-F

    2012-01-01

    This study is the first evaluation of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on a 4 km × 4 km high resolution scale in the eastern US driven by the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0). First we examined the global and regional climate model results, and corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask. In comparison with observations, WRF shows statistically significant improvement over CESM in reproducing extreme weather events, with improvement for heat wave frequency estimation as high as 98%. The fossil fuel intensive scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 was used to study a possible future mid-century climate extreme in 2057–9. Both the heat waves and the extreme precipitation in 2057–9 are more severe than the present climate in the Eastern US. The Northeastern US shows large increases in both heat wave intensity (3.05 °C higher) and annual extreme precipitation (107.3 mm more per year). (letter)

  5. Relationships between CO2, thermodynamic limits on silicate weathering, and the strength of the silicate weathering feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winnick, Matthew J.; Maher, Kate

    2018-03-01

    of equilibrium solute concentrations on pCO2 may represent a direct weathering feedback largely independent of climate and modulated by belowground organic carbon respiration.

  6. Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters, such as precipitation, temperature Oscillations (ENSO) and other climate patterns such as the North Atlantic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, and

  7. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

  8. Space weather and coronal mass ejections

    CERN Document Server

    Howard, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Space weather has attracted a lot of attention in recent times. Severe space weather can disrupt spacecraft, and on Earth can be the cause of power outages and power station failure. It also presents a radiation hazard for airline passengers and astronauts. These ""magnetic storms"" are most commonly caused by coronal mass ejections, or CMES, which are large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun that can reach speeds of several thousand km/s. In this SpringerBrief, Space Weather and Coronal Mass Ejections, author Timothy Howard briefly introduces the coronal mass ejection, its sc

  9. Atmosphere, water, sun, carbon dioxide, weather, climate, living - some fundamental terms; Atmosphaere, Wasser, Sonne, Kohlenstoffdioxid, Wetter, Klima, Leben - einige Grundbegriffe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hopp, Vollrath

    2012-07-01

    The author of the book under consideration explains the physical, chemical and meteorological principles. The knowledge of these fundamentals is necessary in order to understand the weather in its manifold manifestations. Solar energy, atmosphere, oceans and continents are interrelated. Large amounts of energy are exchanged at their interfaces causing high temperature differences and strong materials flows. A historical review shows that the climatic change is determined by changes in solar activity, cosmic radiation, inclination of the earth's axis (from about 24.5 to 22.5 ) in periods of up to 41,000 years, the Earth's magnetic field, the gravitation and by large volcanic eruptions.

  10. Erratum: A space weather mission concept: Observatories of the solar corona and active regions (oscar) (Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (2015) 5 (A4) DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2015003)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strugarek, Antoine; Janitzek, Nils; Lee, Arrow

    2017-01-01

    et al. (2011). At the time we developed OSCAR, EASCO was one of the inspirational mission concepts on which we built our new and original concept of twin satellites leading and trailing the Earth with a separation angle of 68°. The omission of EASCO in our original paper was unintentional, and we...

  11. Relationship between onset of spontaneous pneumothorax and weather conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishina, Taijiro; Watanabe, Atsushi; Miyajima, Masahiro; Nakazawa, Junji

    2017-09-01

    Spontaneous pneumothorax (SP) results from the rupture of blebs or bullae. It has been suggested that changes in weather conditions may trigger the onset of SP. Our aim was to examine the association between the onset of primary SP with weather changes in the general population in Sapporo, Japan. From January 2008 through September 2013, 345 consecutive cases with a diagnosis of primary SP were reviewed. All cases of primary SP developed in the area within 40 km from the Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory. Climatic measurements were obtained from the Observatory, which included 1-h readings of weather conditions. Logistic regression model was used to obtain predicted risks for the onset of SP with respect to weather conditions. SP occurred significantly when the atmospheric pressure decreased by - 18 hPa or less during 96 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.379, P = 0.026), when the pressure increased by 15 hPa or more during 72 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.095, P = 0.007) and when maximum fluctuation in atmospheric pressure over 22 hPa was observed during 96 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.519, P = 0.001). Other weather conditions, including the presence of thunderstorms, were not significantly correlated with the onset of pneumothorax. Changes in atmospheric pressure influence the onset of SP. Future studies on the relationship between the onset of SP and weather conditions on days other than before the onset and with large number of patients may enable us to predict the onset of SP in various regions and weather conditions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  12. The Evolution of Land Plants and the Silicate Weathering Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarra, D. E.; Caves Rugenstein, J. K.; Bachan, A.; Baresch, A.; Lau, K. V.; Thomas, D.; Lee, J. E.; Boyce, C. K.; Chamberlain, C. P.

    2017-12-01

    suggest a feedback where the increase in solute concentrations is compensated by a decrease in runoff and temperature, permitting lower steady-state atmospheric pCO2. Consequently, plants have increased the strength of the climatic feedback on silicate weathering since the late Paleozoic.

  13. Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiita, Joanne

    2013-07-30

    The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

  14. Planning support system for climate adaptation: Composing effective sets of blue-green measures to reduce urban vulnerability to extreme weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voskamp, I.M.; Ven, Van de F.H.M.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of pluvial flooding, heat stress and drought is increasing due to climate change. To increase urban resilience to extreme weather events, it is essential to combine green and blue infrastructure and link enhanced storage capacity in periods of water surplus with moments of water shortage as

  15. Characterization of weathering profile in granites and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and Environmental Engineering (2iE), 01 BP 594 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. 2Laboratoire ...... A 1984 Isotope studies as a final stage in groundwater investigations on ... of the hydrogeology of deeply weathered crystalline rock: Evidence ...

  16. Climatology of salt transitions and implications for stone weathering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossi, C M; Brimblecombe, P; Menéndez, B; Benavente, D; Harris, I; Déqué, M

    2011-06-01

    This work introduces the notion of salt climatology. It shows how climate affects salt thermodynamic and the potential to relate long-term salt damage to climate types. It mainly focuses on specific sites in Western Europe, which include some cities in France and Peninsular Spain. Salt damage was parameterised using the number of dissolution-crystallisation events for unhydrated (sodium chloride) and hydrated (sodium sulphate) systems. These phase transitions have been calculated using daily temperature and relative humidity from observation meteorological data and Climate Change models' output (HadCM3 and ARPEGE). Comparing the number of transitions with meteorological seasonal data allowed us to develop techniques to estimate the frequency of salt transitions based on the local climatology. Results show that it is possible to associate the Köppen-Geiger climate types with potential salt weathering. Temperate fully humid climates seem to offer the highest potential for salt damage and possible higher number of transitions in summer. Climates with dry summers tend to show a lesser frequency of transitions in summer. The analysis of temperature, precipitation and relative output from Climate Change models suggests changes in the Köppen-Geiger climate types and changes in the patterns of salt damage. For instance, West Europe areas with a fully humid climate may change to a more Mediterranean like or dry climates, and consequently the seasonality of different salt transitions. The accuracy and reliability of the projections might be improved by simultaneously running multiple climate models (ensembles). Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A case of the tail wagging the dog? Reverse weathering and Earth's CO2 thermostat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Feedbacks between climate, the global carbon cycle, and the chemistry of seawater stabilize Earth's surface temperature on geologic timescales and are likely responsible for its habitability over billions of years of Earth history. The most important component of the geologic carbon cycle is the precipitation and burial of carbonate sediments. The amount of carbonate sediment produced depends, in turn, on the alkalinity generated during silicate weathering less the amount consumed during the formation of secondary clay minerals both on the continents and in the ocean. In marine enviroments this process, often referred to as reverse weathering, consumes seawater alkalinity (and cations) via reaction with degraded Al-silicate minerals. Because these reactions constitute a sink of seawater alkalinity, changes in the amount of reverse weathering will lead to imbalances between alkalinity sources and sinks. The net effect is that on timescales greater than the timescale of carbonate compensation (< 10 kyr), changes in reverse weathering will lead to changes in the rate of continental silicate weathering through the dependence of continental silicate weathering on atmospheric CO2 and climate. This mechanism is capable of changing rates of continental silicate weathering without changing either the rate of volcanic outgassing or the rate constant for continental silicate weathering (i.e. through mountain-building or the exposure of different rock types) and as a result represents a unique way of modulating the global carbon cycle and Earth's climate on geologic timescales.

  18. The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR) Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Yaqin He; Brian J. Revell; Bofeng Leng; Zhongchao Feng

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yiel...

  19. Climate adaptation and innovation in Mekong aquaculture ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate adaptation and innovation in Mekong aquaculture – AQUADAPT Mekong ... severe weather events and rising sea levels that impact regional hydrology. ... Research and Development Institute, Cambodia; National University of Laos; ...

  20. Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

  1. NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard; hide

    2012-01-01

    The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

  2. Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refai, Mohamad S.; Windhorst, Robert

    2011-01-01

    The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers

  3. Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts; Sale temps pour le GIEC: Du prix Nobel aux affaires, grandeur et decadence des experts du climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubuis, E.

    2010-07-01

    The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

  4. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  5. Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

    2013-01-01

    Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

  6. Weather and Tourism: Thermal Comfort and Zoological Park Visitor Attendance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Perkins

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Weather events have the potential to greatly impact business operations and profitability, especially in outdoor-oriented economic sectors such as Tourism, Recreation, and Leisure (TRL. Although a substantive body of work focuses on the macroscale impacts of climate change, less is known about how daily weather events influence attendance decisions, particularly relating to the physiological thermal comfort levels of each visitor. To address this imbalance, this paper focuses on ambient thermal environments and visitor behavior at the Phoenix and Atlanta zoos. Daily visitor attendances at each zoo from September 2001 to June 2011, were paired with the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET to help measure the thermal conditions most likely experienced by zoo visitors. PET was calculated using hourly atmospheric variables of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and cloud cover from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at each zoological park location and then classified based on thermal comfort categories established by the American Society of Heating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE. The major findings suggested that in both Phoenix and Atlanta, optimal thermal regimes for peak attendance occurred within “slightly warm” and “warm” PET-based thermal categories. Additionally, visitors seemed to be averse to the most commonly occurring thermal extreme since visitors appeared to avoid the zoo on excessively hot days in Phoenix and excessively cold days in Atlanta. Finally, changes in the daily weather impacted visitor attendance as both zoos experienced peak attendance on days with dynamic changes in the thermal regimes and depressed attendances on days with stagnant thermal regimes. Building a better understanding of how weather events impact visitor demand can help improve our assessments of the potential impacts future climate change may have on tourism.

  7. Aerosols and their Impact on Radiation, Clouds, Precipitation & Severe Weather Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zhanqing; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Fan, Jiwen

    2017-09-22

    Aerosols, the tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere, have been in the forefront of environmental and climate change sciences as the primary atmospheric pollutant and external force affecting Earth’s weather and climate. There are two dominant mechanisms by which aerosols affect weather and climate: aerosol-radiation interactions (ARI) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). ARI arises from aerosol scattering and absorption, which alters the radiation budgets of the atmosphere and surface, while ACI is rooted to the fact that aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Both ARI and ACI are coupled with atmospheric dynamics to produce a chain of complex interactions with a large range of meteorological variables that influence both weather and climate. Elaborated here are the impacts of aerosols on the radiation budget, clouds (microphysics, structure, and lifetime), precipitation, and severe weather events (lightning, thunderstorms, hail, and tornados). Depending on environmental variables and aerosol properties, the effects can be both positive and negative, posing the largest uncertainties in the external forcing of the climate system. This has considerably hindered our ability in projecting future climate changes and in doing accurate numerical weather predictions.

  8. Weather based risks and insurances for crop production in Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as late frosts, droughts, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The risk of soil moisture deficit increases towards harvesting, such that drought stress occurs in spring and summer. Conversely, waterlogging occurs mostly during early spring and autumn. Risks of temperature stress appear during winter and spring for chilling and during summer for heat. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, the regional crop model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims for different crops. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage as demonstrated for cropping systems in Belgium. Extreme weather events have already precipitated contraction of insurance coverage in some markets (e.g. hail insurance), and the process can be expected to continue if the losses or damages from such events increase in the future. Climate

  9. A Fresh Look at Weather Impact on Peak Electricity Demand and Energy Use of Buildings Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

    2013-05-01

    Buildings consume more than one third of the world?s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980 to 2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: 1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does on energy use in buildings; 2) the simulated energy use using the TMY3 weather data is not necessarily representative of the average energy use over a long period, and the TMY3 results can be significantly higher or lower than those from the AMY data; 3) the weather impact is greater for buildings in colder climates than warmer climates; 4) the weather impact on the medium-sized office building was the greatest, followed by the large office and then the small

  10. Revisiting the effects of hydrodynamic sorting and sedimentary recycling on chemical weathering indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yulong; Yang, Shouye; Su, Ni; Li, Chao; Yin, Ping; Wang, Zhongbo

    2018-04-01

    Although the proxies based on elemental geochemistry of siliciclastic sediments have been well developed to indicate the intensity of chemical weathering in various catchments, their geological indications and limitations, and especially how the differentiation of minerals and sediment grain size influences the applications of these proxies needs more clarification. This paper investigates the interactive effects of weathering, hydraulic sorting and sedimentary recycling on river sediment chemistry, and further validates the application of various weathering indices by measuring mineralogical and geochemical compositions of bank sediments and suspended particulate matters (SPMs) from five rivers in East China bearing various sizes, geologic settings and climatic regimes. For a specific river, the silicate weathering intensity registered in the fine SPMs is systematically stronger than that in the coarse-grained bank sediments. Most of the weathering indices not only reflect the integrated weathering history of various catchments but also depend on hydraulic sorting effect during sediment transport and depositional processes. The correlation between CIA (chemical index of alteration) and WIP (weathering index of Parker) offers an approach to predict the weathering trends of the fine SPMs, coarse bank sediments and recycled sediments under the influence of quartz dilution. To minimize the effects of hydrodynamic sorting and sedimentary recycling, we suggest that the fine sediments (e.g. SPMs and <2 μm fraction of bank sediments) in rivers can better reflect the average of present-day weathering crust in catchments and the weathered terrigenous materials into marginal seas and oceans.

  11. Yesterday's dinner, tomorrow's weather, today's news? US newspaper coverage of food system contributions to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neff, Roni A; Chan, Iris L; Smith, Katherine Clegg

    2009-07-01

    There is strong evidence that what we eat and how it is produced affects climate change. The present paper examines coverage of food system contributions to climate change in top US newspapers. Using a sample of sixteen leading US newspapers from September 2005 to January 2008, two coders identified 'food and climate change' and 'climate change' articles based on specified criteria. Analyses examined variation across time and newspaper, the level of content relevant to food systems' contributions to climate change, and how such content was framed. There were 4582 'climate change' articles in these newspapers during this period. Of these, 2.4% mentioned food or agriculture contributions, with 0.4% coded as substantially focused on the issue and 0.5% mentioning food animal contributions. The level of content on food contributions to climate change increased across time. Articles initially addressed the issue primarily in individual terms, expanding to address business and government responsibility more in later articles. US newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change during the study period increased, but still did not reflect the increasingly solid evidence of the importance of these effects. Increased coverage may lead to responses by individuals, industry and government. Based on co-benefits with nutritional public health messages and climate change's food security threats, the public health nutrition community has an important role to play in elaborating and disseminating information about food and climate change for the US media.

  12. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  13. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. (Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States)); Witherspoon, M.J. (National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States)); Brown, M.A. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy's national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

  14. The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Witherspoon, M.J. [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States); Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1992-05-01

    This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy`s national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

  15. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  16. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  17. Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly time steps for water supply and flood reduction, respectively. Simulating consecutive drought and flood events simultaneously requires a weather generator to produce different temporal resolution data. This work develops a continuous weather generator to generate daily and hourly precipitation data for regular wet days and severe storms, respectively. Daily rainfall data is generated for regular wet days using Exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, while the total rainfall data for severe storms is generated using the Pearson type III or Log Pearson type III distribution. Moreover, hourly rainfall is determined based on generated hyetographs. Simulation results indicate that the proposed continuous weather generator can generate daily and hourly rainfall reasonably. The proposed weather generator is thus highly promising for use in evaluating how climate change impacts reservoir operations that are significantly influenced by more frequent and intensive consecutive drought and flood events.

  18. The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, T.J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper examines the impacts of climate fluctuations on carbon emissions using monthly models of US energy demand. The econometric analysis estimates price, income, and weather elasticities of short-run energy demand. Our model simulations suggest that warmer climate conditions in the US since 1982 slightly reduced carbon emissions in the US. Lower energy use associated with reduced heating requirements offsets higher fuel consumption to meet increased air-conditioning needs. The analysis also suggests that climate change policies should allow some variance in carbon emissions due to short-term weather variations

  19. INDICATION OF INSENSITIVITY OF PLANETARY WEATHERING BEHAVIOR AND HABITABLE ZONE TO SURFACE LAND FRACTION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbot, Dorian S.; Ciesla, Fred J.; Cowan, Nicolas B.

    2012-01-01

    It is likely that unambiguous habitable zone terrestrial planets of unknown water content will soon be discovered. Water content helps determine surface land fraction, which influences planetary weathering behavior. This is important because the silicate-weathering feedback determines the width of the habitable zone in space and time. Here a low-order model of weathering and climate, useful for gaining qualitative understanding, is developed to examine climate evolution for planets of various land-ocean fractions. It is pointed out that, if seafloor weathering does not depend directly on surface temperature, there can be no weathering-climate feedback on a waterworld. This would dramatically narrow the habitable zone of a waterworld. Results from our model indicate that weathering behavior does not depend strongly on land fraction for partially ocean-covered planets. This is powerful because it suggests that previous habitable zone theory is robust to changes in land fraction, as long as there is some land. Finally, a mechanism is proposed for a waterworld to prevent complete water loss during a moist greenhouse through rapid weathering of exposed continents. This process is named a 'waterworld self-arrest', and it implies that waterworlds can go through a moist greenhouse stage and end up as planets like Earth with partial ocean coverage. This work stresses the importance of surface and geologic effects, in addition to the usual incident stellar flux, for habitability.

  20. INDICATION OF INSENSITIVITY OF PLANETARY WEATHERING BEHAVIOR AND HABITABLE ZONE TO SURFACE LAND FRACTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbot, Dorian S.; Ciesla, Fred J. [Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Cowan, Nicolas B., E-mail: abbot@uchicago.edu [Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2131 Tech Drive, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States)

    2012-09-10

    It is likely that unambiguous habitable zone terrestrial planets of unknown water content will soon be discovered. Water content helps determine surface land fraction, which influences planetary weathering behavior. This is important because the silicate-weathering feedback determines the width of the habitable zone in space and time. Here a low-order model of weathering and climate, useful for gaining qualitative understanding, is developed to examine climate evolution for planets of various land-ocean fractions. It is pointed out that, if seafloor weathering does not depend directly on surface temperature, there can be no weathering-climate feedback on a waterworld. This would dramatically narrow the habitable zone of a waterworld. Results from our model indicate that weathering behavior does not depend strongly on land fraction for partially ocean-covered planets. This is powerful because it suggests that previous habitable zone theory is robust to changes in land fraction, as long as there is some land. Finally, a mechanism is proposed for a waterworld to prevent complete water loss during a moist greenhouse through rapid weathering of exposed continents. This process is named a 'waterworld self-arrest', and it implies that waterworlds can go through a moist greenhouse stage and end up as planets like Earth with partial ocean coverage. This work stresses the importance of surface and geologic effects, in addition to the usual incident stellar flux, for habitability.

  1. Testing the Role of Climate Change in Species Decline: Is the Eastern Quoll a Victim of a Change in the Weather?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn A Fancourt

    Full Text Available To conserve a declining species we first need to diagnose the causes of decline. This is one of the most challenging tasks faced by conservation practitioners. In this study, we used temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs to test whether shifting weather can explain the recent decline of a marsupial carnivore, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus. We developed an SDM using weather variables matched to occurrence records of the eastern quoll over the last 60 years, and used the model to reconstruct variation through time in the distribution of climatically suitable range for the species. The weather model produced a meaningful prediction of the known distribution of the species. Abundance of quolls, indexed by transect counts, was positively related to the modelled area of suitable habitat between 1990 and 2004. In particular, a sharp decline in abundance from 2001 to 2003 coincided with a sustained period of unsuitable weather over much of the species' distribution. Since 2004, abundance has not recovered despite a return to suitable weather conditions, and abundance and area of suitable habitat have been uncorrelated. We suggest that fluctuations in weather account for the species' recent decline, but other unrelated factors have suppressed recovery.

  2. Weather based risks and insurances for agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as frost, drought, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The principle of return periods or frequencies of natural hazards is adopted in many countries as the basis of eligibility for the compensation of associated losses. For adequate risk management and eligibility, hazard maps for events with a 20-year return period are often used. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar therefore requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event in the farming calendar. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage. Subsequent examination of the frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and soil moisture stress in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages allows for risk profiles to be confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims. The methodology is demonstrated for arable food crops, bio-energy crops and fruit. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. Though average yields have risen continuously due to technological advances, there is no evidence that relative tolerance to adverse weather events has improved. The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

  3. Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Ma, H.-Y.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Bazile, E.; Berg, L. K.; Cheng, A.; Cheruy, F.; Cole, J.; Forbes, R.; Gustafson, W. I.; Huang, M.; Lee, W.-S.; Liu, Y.; Mellul, L.; Merryfield, W. J.; Qian, Y.; Roehrig, R.; Wang, Y.-C.; Xie, S.; Xu, K.-M.; Zhang, C.; Klein, S.; Petch, J.

    2018-03-01

    We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from nine institutes, perform a series of 5 day hindcasts, each initialized from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

  4. Weatherization and Indoor Air Quality: Measured Impacts in Single Family Homes Under the Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pigg, Scott [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Cautley, Dan [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Francisco, Paul [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Hawkins, Beth A [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Brennan, Terry M [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2014-09-01

    This report summarizes findings from a national field study of indoor air quality parameters in homes treated under the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). The study involved testing and monitoring in 514 single-family homes (including mobile homes) located in 35 states and served by 88 local weatherization agencies.

  5. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  6. Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, Maryia; Reidsma, Pytrik; Ittersum, van Martin K.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is expressed in both a shift of mean climatic conditions and an increase in the frequency and severity of weather extremes. The weather extremes are often projected to have a larger impact on agricultural production than the average increase in temperature or average change in

  7. Swarm Products and Space Weather Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolle, Claudia; Olsen, Nils; Martini, Daniel

    The Swarm satellite constellation mission provides high precision magnetic field data and models and other observations that enable us to explore near Earth space for example in terms of in situ electron density and electric fields. On board GPS observables can be used for sounding ionospheric...... in aeronomy and space weather. We will emphasize results from the Swarm mission....

  8. CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are . P., and A. Kumar, 2000: Understanding and predicting extratropical teleconnections related to ENSO extratropical circulation anomalies during the 1986-1989 ENSO cycle. J. Climate, 6, 595-616. Ropelewski, C. F

  9. Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

    2011-12-01

    This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

  10. Weather during bloom affects pollination and yield of highbush blueberry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuell, Julianna K; Isaacs, Rufus

    2010-06-01

    Weather plays an important role in spring-blooming fruit crops due to the combined effects on bee activity, flower opening, pollen germination, and fertilization. To determine the effects of weather on highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum L., productivity, we monitored bee activity and compared fruit set, weight, and seed number in a field stocked with honey bees, Apis mellifera L., and common eastern bumble bees, Bombus impatiens (Cresson). Flowers were subjected to one of five treatments during bloom: enclosed, open, open during poor weather only, open during good weather only, or open during poor and good weather. Fewer bees of all types were observed foraging and fewer pollen foragers returned to colonies during poor weather than during good weather. There were also changes in foraging community composition: honey bees dominated during good weather, whereas bumble bees dominated during poor weather. Berries from flowers exposed only during poor weather had higher fruit set in 1 yr and higher berry weight in the other year compared with enclosed clusters. In both years, clusters exposed only during good weather had > 5 times as many mature seeds, weighed twice as much, and had double the fruit set of those not exposed. No significant increase over flowers exposed during good weather was observed when clusters were exposed during good and poor weather. Our results are discussed in terms of the role of weather during bloom on the contribution of bees adapted to foraging during cool conditions.

  11. Using crowdsourced data from citizen weather stations to analyse air temperature in 'local climate zones' in Berlin, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenner, Daniel; Meier, Fred; Bechtel, Benjamin; Otto, Marco; Scherer, Dieter

    2017-04-01

    Provision of observational data with high spatial coverage over extended time periods still remains as one of the biggest challenges in urban climate research. Classical meteorological networks are seldomly designed to monitor atmospheric conditions in a broad variety of urban environments, though the heterogeneity of urban structures leads to distinct thermal characteristics on local scales, i.e., hundreds of metres to several kilometres. One approach to overcome the aforementioned challenges of observation networks is to use data from weather stations that are maintained by citizens. The private company 'netatmo' (www.netatmo.com) produces and distributes such citizen weather stations (CWS) around the world. The stations automatically send their data to the netatmo server, and the user decides if data are publicly shared. Shared data can freely be retrieved via an application programming interface. We collected air temperature (T) data for the year 2015 for the city of Berlin, Germany, and surroundings with more than 1500 'netatmo' CWS in the study area. The entire data set was thoroughly quality checked, and filter techniques, involving data from a reference network, were developed to address different types of errors associated with CWS data. Additionally, the accuracy of 'netatmo' CWS was checked in a climate chamber and in a long-term field experiment. Since the terms 'urban' and 'rural' are ambiguous in urban climate studies, Stewart and Oke (2012) developed the 'local climate zone' (LCZ) concept to enhance understanding and interpretation of air temperature differences in urban regions. LCZ classification for the study region was conducted using the 'WUDAPT' approach by Bechtel et al. (2015). The quality-checked CWS data were used to analyse T characteristics of LCZ classes in Berlin and surroundings. Specifically, we analysed how LCZ classes are represented by CWS in 2015, how T varies within each LCZ class ('intra-LCZ variability'), and if significant

  12. The Conditions of Creation and Prospects of Weather Derivatives Development on the Domestic Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Analysing the possibility of creations and prospects of weather derivatives development on the domestic market the first of all should be identify the business areas that are strongly exposed for weather risk, which are: energy, agricultural, building and transportation. The specificity of the Polish climate is the high volatility of the major weather factors like temperature or precipitations. Similar to other European countries where weather derivatives markets already exist (e.g.: Germany, France, and United Kingdom. Having in mind dynamic grow of companies with regards to management processes, used technologies and marketing strategies, the exposure for weather risk is getting higher. Therefore, there is a strong pressure for creation of mechanisms and instruments that will allow reducing that kind of risks. Currently in Poland there are no conditions for development of weather derivatives market due to lack of demand. That situation is caused by low level of awareness regarding to possibilities of reducing weather risks. Within a few years the demand for such the instruments will appear ñ together with growing awareness. Once the demand for weather derivative will appear, the existing infrastructure of financial sector is ready for its implementation. Of course it is hard to say what will be the direction of whether derivatives grow on the domestic financial market but taking into consideration its dynamic grow and strong correlations with global markets, there is a small probability that weather derivatives will not appear on the Polish market ñ it is only the matter of time.

  13. A fresh look at weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings using 30-year actual weather data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use. • Weather impact varies with building type, building efficiency level, and location. • Simulated results using TMY3 weather data can under or over estimate those of AMY. • It is crucial to assess performance of buildings using long-term actual weather data. • Findings enable building stakeholders to make better decisions on weather impact. - Abstract: Buildings consume more than one third of the world’s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980–2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: (1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does

  14. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Weather Service Modernization and Weather Satellite Program

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Willemssen, Joel

    2000-01-01

    ...). At your request, we will discuss the status of the National Weather Service (NWS) systems modernization and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) program...

  15. The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaqin He

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yield variation. Spatial and temporal patterns of the relationships between OSR yield, climatic factors were estimated together with the effects of farmer adaptation and management practices on yield variability. The analysis revealed that yields in the low-latitude production regions were more sensitive to temperature increases and likely to decline. Precipitation iwas the most influential factor on yield at the first two growth stages; temperature and sunshine hours were most important at the third and fourth growth stages, respectively. Labour input was the most influential management factor affecting yields compared with fertilizer and other inputs. The study concludes that projection of future climate change impacts will need inter alia to incorporate more sophisticated and detailed measures of climatic variables than simple means of temperature and precipitation, incorporating timing in relation to plant growth and yield.

  16. Vulnerability and adaptation to severe weather events in the American southwest

    OpenAIRE

    Boero, Riccardo; Bianchini, Laura; Pasqualini, Donatella

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can induce changes in the frequency of severe weather events representing a threat to socio-economic development. It is thus of uttermost importance to understand how the vulnerability to the weather of local communities is determined and how adaptation public policies can be effectively put in place. We focused our empirical analysis on the American Southwest. Results show that, consistently