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Sample records for wave prediction models

  1. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  2. Model Predictive Control of a Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom Søndergård; Nielsen, Kirsten Mølgaard

    2015-01-01

    In this paper reactive control and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) are compared. The analysis is based on a WEC from Wave Star A/S designed as a point absorber. The model predictive controller uses wave models based on the dominating sea states combined with a model...... connecting undisturbed wave sequences to sequences of torque. Losses in the conversion from mechanical to electrical power are taken into account in two ways. Conventional reactive controllers are tuned for each sea state with the assumption that the converter has the same efficiency back and forth. MPC...

  3. Improved Modeling and Prediction of Surface Wave Amplitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-31

    AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2017-0162 TR-2017-0162 IMPROVED MODELING AND PREDICTION OF SURFACE WAVE AMPLITUDES Jeffry L. Stevens, et al. Leidos...data does not license the holder or any other person or corporation; or convey any rights or permission to manufacture, use, or sell any patented...SUBTITLE Improved Modeling and Prediction of Surface Wave Amplitudes 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9453-14-C-0225 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER

  4. Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.

  5. Model Predictive Control of Buoy Type Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen N.; Sichani, Mahdi T.; Mirzaei, Mahmood

    2014-01-01

    by forcing this condition. In the paper the theoretical framework for this principal is shown. The optimal controller requires information of the sea state for infinite horizon which is not applicable. Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) can have finite horizon which crosses out this requirement....... This approach is then taken into account and an MPC controller is designed for a model wave energy converter and implemented on a numerical example. Further, the power outtake of this controller is compared to the optimal controller as an indicator of the performance of the designed controller....

  6. Optimization of arterial age prediction models based in pulse wave

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scandurra, A G [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Meschino, G J [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Passoni, L I [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Dai Pra, A L [Engineering Aplied Artificial Intelligence Group, Mathematics Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Introzzi, A R [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Clara, F M [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina)

    2007-11-15

    We propose the detection of early arterial ageing through a prediction model of arterial age based in the coherence assumption between the pulse wave morphology and the patient's chronological age. Whereas we evaluate several methods, a Sugeno fuzzy inference system is selected. Models optimization is approached using hybrid methods: parameter adaptation with Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. Features selection was performed according with their projection on main factors of the Principal Components Analysis. The model performance was tested using the bootstrap error type .632E. The model presented an error smaller than 8.5%. This result encourages including this process as a diagnosis module into the device for pulse analysis that has been developed by the Bioengineering Laboratory staff.

  7. Optimization of arterial age prediction models based in pulse wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scandurra, A G; Meschino, G J; Passoni, L I; Dai Pra, A L; Introzzi, A R; Clara, F M

    2007-01-01

    We propose the detection of early arterial ageing through a prediction model of arterial age based in the coherence assumption between the pulse wave morphology and the patient's chronological age. Whereas we evaluate several methods, a Sugeno fuzzy inference system is selected. Models optimization is approached using hybrid methods: parameter adaptation with Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. Features selection was performed according with their projection on main factors of the Principal Components Analysis. The model performance was tested using the bootstrap error type .632E. The model presented an error smaller than 8.5%. This result encourages including this process as a diagnosis module into the device for pulse analysis that has been developed by the Bioengineering Laboratory staff

  8. Prediction of the Individual Wave Overtopping Volumes of a Wave Energy Converter using Experimental Testing and First Numerical Model Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Victor, L.; Troch, P.; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2009-01-01

    For overtopping wave energy converters (WECs) a more efficient energy conversion can be achieved when the volumes of water, wave by wave, that enter their reservoir are known and can be predicted. A numerical tool is being developed using a commercial CFD-solver to study and optimize...... nearshore 2Dstructure. First numerical model results are given for a specific test with regular waves, and are compared with the corresponding experimental results in this paper....

  9. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  10. Model Predictive Control of Buoy Type Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Mirzaei, Mahmood

    2014-01-01

    by forcing this condition. In the paper the theoretical framework for this principal is shown. The optimal controller requires information of the sea state for infinite horizon which is not applicable. Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) can have finite horizon which crosses out this requirement....... This approach is then taken into account and an MPC controller is designed for a model WEC and implemented on a numerical example. Further, the power outtake of this controller is compared to the optimal controller as an indicator of the performance of the designed controller....

  11. Power maximization of a point absorber wave energy converter using improved model predictive control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Farideh; Moghaddam, Reihaneh Kardehi

    2017-08-01

    This paper considers controlling and maximizing the absorbed power of wave energy converters for irregular waves. With respect to physical constraints of the system, a model predictive control is applied. Irregular waves' behavior is predicted by Kalman filter method. Owing to the great influence of controller parameters on the absorbed power, these parameters are optimized by imperialist competitive algorithm. The results illustrate the method's efficiency in maximizing the extracted power in the presence of unknown excitation force which should be predicted by Kalman filter.

  12. Blast wave injury prediction models for complex scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teland, J.A.; Doormaal, J.C.A.M. van

    2012-01-01

    Blast waves from explosions can cause lethal injuries to humans. Development of injury criteria has been ongoing for many years, but with the main focus on free field conditions. However, with terrorist actions as a new threat, explosions in urban areas have become of much more interest. Urban areas

  13. Nonhydrostatic and surfbeat model predictions of extreme wave run-up in fringing reef environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lashley, Christopher H.; Roelvink, Dano; van Dongeren, Ap R.; Buckley, Mark L.; Lowe, Ryan J.

    2018-01-01

    The accurate prediction of extreme wave run-up is important for effective coastal engineering design and coastal hazard management. While run-up processes on open sandy coasts have been reasonably well-studied, very few studies have focused on understanding and predicting wave run-up at coral reef-fronted coastlines. This paper applies the short-wave resolving, Nonhydrostatic (XB-NH) and short-wave averaged, Surfbeat (XB-SB) modes of the XBeach numerical model to validate run-up using data from two 1D (alongshore uniform) fringing-reef profiles without roughness elements, with two objectives: i) to provide insight into the physical processes governing run-up in such environments; and ii) to evaluate the performance of both modes in accurately predicting run-up over a wide range of conditions. XBeach was calibrated by optimizing the maximum wave steepness parameter (maxbrsteep) in XB-NH and the dissipation coefficient (alpha) in XB-SB) using the first dataset; and then applied to the second dataset for validation. XB-NH and XB-SB predictions of extreme wave run-up (Rmax and R2%) and its components, infragravity- and sea-swell band swash (SIG and SSS) and shoreline setup (), were compared to observations. XB-NH more accurately simulated wave transformation but under-predicted shoreline setup due to its exclusion of parameterized wave-roller dynamics. XB-SB under-predicted sea-swell band swash but overestimated shoreline setup due to an over-prediction of wave heights on the reef flat. Run-up (swash) spectra were dominated by infragravity motions, allowing the short-wave (but not wave group) averaged model (XB-SB) to perform comparably well to its more complete, short-wave resolving (XB-NH) counterpart. Despite their respective limitations, both modes were able to accurately predict Rmax and R2%.

  14. Predicting spiral wave patterns from cell properties in a model of biological self-organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geberth, Daniel; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten

    2008-09-01

    In many biological systems, biological variability (i.e., systematic differences between the system components) can be expected to outrank statistical fluctuations in the shaping of self-organized patterns. In principle, the distribution of single-element properties should thus allow predicting features of such patterns. For a mathematical model of a paradigmatic and well-studied pattern formation process, spiral waves of cAMP signaling in colonies of the slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum, we explore this possibility and observe a pronounced anticorrelation between spiral waves and cell properties (namely, the firing rate) and particularly a clustering of spiral wave tips in regions devoid of spontaneously firing (pacemaker) cells. Furthermore, we observe local inhomogeneities in the distribution of spiral chiralities, again induced by the pacemaker distribution. We show that these findings can be explained by a simple geometrical model of spiral wave generation.

  15. Modeling long period swell in Southern California: Practical boundary conditions from buoy observations and global wave model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, S. C.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Guza, R. T.

    2016-02-01

    Accurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion, coastal flooding, and alongshore transport of sediment, biota and pollutants. On highly sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by uncertainty in offshore boundary conditions. Offshore islands and shoals, and coastline curvature, create complex sheltering patterns over the 250km span of southern California (SC) shoreline. Here, regional wave model skill in SC was compared for different offshore boundary conditions created using offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Watch 3, WW3). Spectral ray-tracing methods were used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04-0.09Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1-deg). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Model skill using buoy-derived boundary conditions is higher than with WW3-derived boundary conditions. Buoy-driven nearshore model results are similar with various assumptions about the true offshore directional distribution (maximum entropy, Bayesian direct, and 2nd derivative smoothness). Two methods combining offshore buoy observations with WW3 predictions in the offshore boundary condition did not improve nearshore skill above buoy-only methods. A case example at Oceanside harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport predictions to different offshore boundary conditions. Despite this uncertainty in alongshore transport magnitude, alongshore gradients in transport (e.g. the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are determined by the local bathymetry, and are similar for all predictions.

  16. Nonlinear model predictive control of a wave energy converter based on differential flatness parameterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guang

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a fast constrained optimization approach, which is tailored for nonlinear model predictive control of wave energy converters (WEC). The advantage of this approach relies on its exploitation of the differential flatness of the WEC model. This can reduce the dimension of the resulting nonlinear programming problem (NLP) derived from the continuous constrained optimal control of WEC using pseudospectral method. The alleviation of computational burden using this approach helps to promote an economic implementation of nonlinear model predictive control strategy for WEC control problems. The method is applicable to nonlinear WEC models, nonconvex objective functions and nonlinear constraints, which are commonly encountered in WEC control problems. Numerical simulations demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

  17. A Model Predictive Control-Based Power Converter System for Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Converters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gimara Rajapakse

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite the predictability and availability at large scale, wave energy conversion (WEC has still not become a mainstream renewable energy technology. One of the main reasons is the large variations in the extracted power which could lead to instabilities in the power grid. In addition, maintaining the speed of the turbine within optimal range under changing wave conditions is another control challenge, especially in oscillating water column (OWC type WEC systems. As a solution to the first issue, this paper proposes the direct connection of a battery bank into the dc-link of the back-to-back power converter system, thereby smoothening the power delivered to the grid. For the second issue, model predictive controllers (MPCs are developed for the rectifier and the inverter of the back-to-back converter system aiming to maintain the turbine speed within its optimum range. In addition, MPC controllers are designed to control the battery current as well, in both charging and discharging conditions. Operations of the proposed battery direct integration scheme and control solutions are verified through computer simulations. Simulation results show that the proposed integrated energy storage and control solutions are capable of delivering smooth power to the grid while maintaining the turbine speed within its optimum range under varying wave conditions.

  18. Considering linear generator copper losses on model predictive control for a point absorber wave energy converter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montoya Andrade, Dan-El; Villa Jaén, Antonio de la; García Santana, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We considered the linear generator copper losses in the proposed MPC strategy. • We maximized the power transferred to the generator side power converter. • The proposed MPC increases the useful average power injected into the grid. • The stress level of the PTO system can be reduced by the proposed MPC. - Abstract: The amount of energy that a wave energy converter can extract depends strongly on the control strategy applied to the power take-off system. It is well known that, ideally, the reactive control allows for maximum energy extraction from waves. However, the reactive control is intrinsically noncausal in practice and requires some kind of causal approach to be applied. Moreover, this strategy does not consider physical constraints and this could be a problem because the system could achieve unacceptable dynamic values. These, and other control techniques have focused on the wave energy extraction problem in order to maximize the energy absorbed by the power take-off device without considering the possible losses in intermediate devices. In this sense, a reactive control that considers the linear generator copper losses has been recently proposed to increase the useful power injected into the grid. Among the control techniques that have emerged recently, the model predictive control represents a promising strategy. This approach performs an optimization process on a time prediction horizon incorporating dynamic constraints associated with the physical features of the power take-off system. This paper proposes a model predictive control technique that considers the copper losses in the control optimization process of point absorbers with direct drive linear generators. This proposal makes the most of reactive control as it considers the copper losses, and it makes the most of the model predictive control, as it considers the system constraints. This means that the useful power transferred from the linear generator to the power

  19. A simple equilibrium theoretical model and predictions for a continuous wave exciplex pumped alkali laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carroll, David L; Verdeyen, Joseph T

    2013-01-01

    The exciplex pumped alkali laser (XPAL) system has been demonstrated in mixtures of Cs vapour, Ar, with and without ethane, by pumping Cs-Ar atomic collision pairs and subsequent dissociation of diatomic, electronically excited CsAr molecules (exciplexes or excimers). The blue satellites of the alkali D 2 lines provide an advantageous pathway for optically pumping atomic alkali lasers on the principal series (resonance) transitions with broad linewidth (>2 nm) semiconductor diode lasers. The development of a simple theoretical analysis of continuous-wave XPAL systems is presented along with predictions as a function of temperature and pump intensity. The model predicts that an optical-to-optical efficiency in the range of 40-50% can be achieved for XPAL.

  20. Model Predictive Control of a Wave Energy Converter with Discrete Fluid Power Power Take-Off System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Hedegaard Hansen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Wave power extraction algorithms for wave energy converters are normally designed without taking system losses into account leading to suboptimal power extraction. In the current work, a model predictive power extraction algorithm is designed for a discretized power take of system. It is shown how the quantized nature of a discrete fluid power system may be included in a new model predictive control algorithm leading to a significant increase in the harvested power. A detailed investigation of the influence of the prediction horizon and the time step is reported. Furthermore, it is shown how the inclusion of a loss model may increase the energy output. Based on the presented results it is concluded that power extraction algorithms based on model predictive control principles are both feasible and favorable for use in a discrete fluid power power take-off system for point absorber wave energy converters.

  1. Model Predictive Control of a Wave Energy Converter with Discrete Fluid Power Power Take-Off System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anders Hedegaard; Asmussen, Magnus Færing; Bech, Michael Møller

    2018-01-01

    Wave power extraction algorithms for wave energy converters are normally designed without taking system losses into account leading to suboptimal power extraction. In the current work, a model predictive power extraction algorithm is designed for a discretized power take of system. It is shown how...... the quantized nature of a discrete fluid power system may be included in a new model predictive control algorithm leading to a significant increase in the harvested power. A detailed investigation of the influence of the prediction horizon and the time step is reported. Furthermore, it is shown how...

  2. Wave Disturbance Reduction of a Floating Wind Turbine Using a Reference Model-based Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Søren; Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Bak, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    pitch such that the state trajectories of the controlled system tracks the reference trajectories. The framework is demonstrated with a reference model of the desired closed-loop system undisturbed by the incident waves. This allows the wave-induced motion of the platform to be damped significantly...... compared to a baseline floating wind turbine controller at the cost of more pitch action....

  3. Influence of wave modelling on the prediction of fatigue for offshore wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, H. F.; van der Tempel, J.

    2005-01-01

    Currently it is standard practice to use Airy linear wave theory combined with Morison's formula for the calculation of fatigue loads for offshore wind turbines. However, offshore wind turbines are typically placed in relatively shallow water depths of 5-25 m where linear wave theory has limited accuracy and where ideally waves generated with the Navier-Stokes approach should be used. This article examines the differences in fatigue for some representative offshore wind turbines that are found if first-order, second-order and fully non-linear waves are used. The offshore wind turbines near Blyth are located in an area where non-linear wave effects are common. Measurements of these waves from the OWTES project are used to compare the different wave models with the real world in spectral form. Some attention is paid to whether the shape of a higher-order wave height spectrum (modified JONSWAP) corresponds to reality for other places in the North Sea, and which values for the drag and inertia coefficients should be used. Copyright

  4. A Numerical Model for Prediction of Residual Stress Using Rayleigh Waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Mao Dan; Kang, To; Kim, Hak Joon; Song, Sung Jin

    2011-01-01

    In this work, a numerical model is proposed for the relation between the magnitudes and the depth residual stress with the velocity of Rayleigh wave. Three cases, stress-free, uniform stress and layered stress, are investigated for the change tendency of the Rayleigh wave speed. Using the simulated signal with variation of residual stress magnitude and depth, investigation of the parameters for fitting residual stress and velocity change are performed. The speed change of Rayleigh wave shows a linear relation with the magnitude and an exponential relation with the depth of residual stress. The combination of these two effects could be used for the depth profile evaluation of the residual stress

  5. A Unified Air-Sea Interface in Fully Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Models for Data Assimilation and Ensemble Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi; Curcic, Milan; Donelan, Mark; Campbell, Tim; Smith, Travis; Chen, Sue; Allard, Rick; Michalakes, John

    2014-05-01

    The goals of this study are to 1) better understand the physical processes controlling air-sea interaction and their impact on coastal marine and storm predictions, 2) explore the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean observations in model verification and data assimilation, and 3) develop a physically based and computationally efficient coupling at the air-sea interface that is flexible for use in a multi-model system and portable for transition to the next generation research and operational coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land models. We have developed a unified air-sea interface module that couples multiple atmosphere, wave, and ocean models using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This standardized coupling framework allows researchers to develop and test air-sea coupling parameterizations and coupled data assimilation, and to better facilitate research-to-operation activities. It also allows for future ensemble forecasts using coupled models that can be used for coupled data assimilation and assessment of uncertainties in coupled model predictions. The current component models include two atmospheric models (WRF and COAMPS), two ocean models (HYCOM and NCOM), and two wave models (UMWM and SWAN). The coupled modeling systems have been tested and evaluated using the coupled air-sea observations (e.g., GPS dropsondes and AXBTs, drifters and floats) collected in recent field campaigns in the Gulf of Mexico and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. This talk will provide an overview of the unified air-sea interface model and fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model predictions over various coastal regions and tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic basins including an example from coupled ensemble prediction of Superstorm Sandy (2012).

  6. Modeling storm waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch.

    1999-01-01

    Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

  7. Predicting the distribution of spiral waves from cell properties in a developmental-path model of Dictyostelium pattern formation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Geberth

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum is one of the model systems of biological pattern formation. One of the most successful answers to the challenge of establishing a spiral wave pattern in a colony of homogeneously distributed D. discoideum cells has been the suggestion of a developmental path the cells follow (Lauzeral and coworkers. This is a well-defined change in properties each cell undergoes on a longer time scale than the typical dynamics of the cell. Here we show that this concept leads to an inhomogeneous and systematic spatial distribution of spiral waves, which can be predicted from the distribution of cells on the developmental path. We propose specific experiments for checking whether such systematics are also found in data and thus, indirectly, provide evidence of a developmental path.

  8. The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dörnbrack

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.

  9. Evaluation of an Approximate Method for Incorporating Floating Docks in Harbor Wave Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-11-25

    fact, Koutandos et al. (2004) even now have had to limit their work only to the x–z plane while using a similar approach. In this paper, therefore, we...breakwater Koutandos et al. (2004) have presented data pertaining to transmission coefficients for waves passing a fixed, infinitely long, floating...4. Values of A and B for determining α. Fig. 5. Wave height comparison with data presented in Koutandos et al. (2004). Fig. 6. Wave transmission past

  10. Wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater using neural network

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Patil, S.G.; Hegde, A.V.

    In the present study, an artificial neural network method has been applied for wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater. Two neural network models are constructed based on the parameters which influence the wave transmission...

  11. New and Accurate Predictive Model for the Efficacy of Extracorporeal Shock Wave Therapy in Managing Patients With Chronic Plantar Fasciitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Mengchen; Chen, Ni; Huang, Quan; Marla, Anastasia Sulindro; Ma, Junming; Ye, Jie; Mo, Wen

    2017-12-01

    To identify factors for the outcome of a minimum clinically successful therapy and to establish a predictive model of extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) in managing patients with chronic plantar fasciitis. Randomized, controlled, prospective study. Outpatient of local medical center settings. Patients treated for symptomatic chronic plantar fasciitis between 2014 and 2016 (N=278). ESWT was performed by the principal authors to treat chronic plantar fasciitis. ESWT was administered in 3 sessions, with an interval of 2 weeks (±4d). In the low-, moderate-, and high-intensity groups, 2400 impulses total of ESWT with an energy flux density of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6mJ/mm 2 , respectively (a rate of 8 impulses per second), were applied. The independent variables were patient age, sex, body mass index, affected side, duration of symptoms, Roles and Maudsley score, visual analog scale (VAS) score when taking first steps in the morning, edema, bone spurs, and intensity grade of ESWT. A minimal reduction of 50% in the VAS score was considered as minimum clinically successful therapy. The correlations between the achievement of minimum clinically successful therapy and independent variables were analyzed. The statistically significant factors identified were further analyzed by multivariate logistic regression, and the predictive model was established. The success rate of ESWT was 66.9%. Univariate analysis found that VAS score when taking first steps in the morning, edema, and the presence of heel spur in radiograph significantly affected the outcome of the treatment. Logistic regression drew the equation: minimum clinically successful therapy=(1+e [.011+42.807×heel spur+.109×edema+5.395×VAS score] ) -1 .The sensitivity of the predictive factors was 96.77%, 87.63%, and 86.02%, respectively. The specificity of the predictive factors was 45.65%, 42.39%, and 85.87%, respectively. The area under the curve of the predictive factors was .751, .650, and .859, respectively. The

  12. Prediction of Compressional Wave Velocity Using Regression and Neural Network Modeling and Estimation of Stress Orientation in Bokaro Coalfield, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Suman; Ali, Muhammad; Chatterjee, Rima

    2018-01-01

    Velocity of compressional wave ( V P) of coal and non-coal lithology is predicted from five wells from the Bokaro coalfield (CF), India. Shear sonic travel time logs are not recorded for all wells under the study area. Shear wave velocity ( Vs) is available only for two wells: one from east and other from west Bokaro CF. The major lithologies of this CF are dominated by coal, shaly coal of Barakar formation. This paper focuses on the (a) relationship between Vp and Vs, (b) prediction of Vp using regression and neural network modeling and (c) estimation of maximum horizontal stress from image log. Coal characterizes with low acoustic impedance (AI) as compared to the overlying and underlying strata. The cross-plot between AI and Vp/ Vs is able to identify coal, shaly coal, shale and sandstone from wells in Bokaro CF. The relationship between Vp and Vs is obtained with excellent goodness of fit ( R 2) ranging from 0.90 to 0.93. Linear multiple regression and multi-layered feed-forward neural network (MLFN) models are developed for prediction Vp from two wells using four input log parameters: gamma ray, resistivity, bulk density and neutron porosity. Regression model predicted Vp shows poor fit (from R 2 = 0.28) to good fit ( R 2 = 0.79) with the observed velocity. MLFN model predicted Vp indicates satisfactory to good R2 values varying from 0.62 to 0.92 with the observed velocity. Maximum horizontal stress orientation from a well at west Bokaro CF is studied from Formation Micro-Imager (FMI) log. Breakouts and drilling-induced fractures (DIFs) are identified from the FMI log. Breakout length of 4.5 m is oriented towards N60°W whereas the orientation of DIFs for a cumulative length of 26.5 m is varying from N15°E to N35°E. The mean maximum horizontal stress in this CF is towards N28°E.

  13. Numerical climate modeling and verification of selected areas for heat waves of Pakistan using ensemble prediction system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amna, S; Samreen, N; Khalid, B; Shamim, A

    2013-01-01

    Depending upon the topography, there is an extreme variation in the temperature of Pakistan. Heat waves are the Weather-related events, having significant impact on the humans, including all socioeconomic activities and health issues as well which changes according to the climatic conditions of the area. The forecasting climate is of prime importance for being aware of future climatic changes, in order to mitigate them. The study used the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the purpose of modeling seasonal weather hind-cast of three selected areas i.e., Islamabad, Jhelum and Muzaffarabad. This research was purposely carried out in order to suggest the most suitable climate model for Pakistan. Real time and simulated data of five General Circulation Models i.e., ECMWF, ERA-40, MPI, Meteo France and UKMO for selected areas was acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department. Data incorporated constituted the statistical temperature records of 32 years for the months of June, July and August. This study was based on EPS to calculate probabilistic forecasts produced by single ensembles. Verification was done out to assess the quality of the forecast t by using standard probabilistic measures of Brier Score, Brier Skill Score, Cross Validation and Relative Operating Characteristic curve. The results showed ECMWF the most suitable model for Islamabad and Jhelum; and Meteo France for Muzaffarabad. Other models have significant results by omitting particular initial conditions.

  14. Effect of water depth on the performance of intelligent computing models in predicting wave transmission of floating pipe breakwater.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Patil, S.G.; Mandal, S.; Hegde, A.V.

    Understanding the physics of complex system plays an important role in selection of data for training intelligent computing models. Based on the physics of the wave transmission of Horizontally Interlaced Multilayer Moored Floating Pipe Breakwater...

  15. Modelling dielectric-constant values of concrete: an aid to shielding effectiveness prediction and ground-penetrating radar wave technique interpretation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourdi, Taoufik; Rhazi, Jamal Eddine; Ballivy, Gérard; Boone, François

    2012-01-01

    A number of efficient and diverse mathematical methods have been used to model electromagnetic wave propagation. Each of these methods possesses a set of key elements which eases its understanding. However, the modelling of the propagation in concrete becomes impossible without modelling its electrical properties. In addition to experimental measurements; material theoretical and empirical models can be useful to investigate the behaviour of concrete's electrical properties with respect to frequency, moisture content (MC) or other factors. These models can be used in different fields of civil engineering such as (1) electromagnetic compatibility which predicts the shielding effectiveness (SE) of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves and (2) in non-destructive testing to predict the radar wave reflected on a concrete slab. This paper presents a comparison between the Jonscher model and the Debye models which is suitable to represent the dielectric properties of concrete, although dielectric and conduction losses are taken into consideration in these models. The Jonscher model gives values of permittivity, SE and radar wave reflected in a very good agreement with those given by experimental measurements and this for different MCs. Compared with other models, the Jonscher model is very effective and is the most appropriate to represent the electric properties of concrete.

  16. Wave Reflection Model Tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.; Larsen, Brian Juul

    The investigation concerns the design of a new internal breakwater in the main port of Ibiza. The objective of the model tests was in the first hand to optimize the cross section to make the wave reflection low enough to ensure that unacceptable wave agitation will not occur in the port. Secondly...

  17. Macroscopic balance model for wave rotors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Gerard E.

    1996-01-01

    A mathematical model for multi-port wave rotors is described. The wave processes that effect energy exchange within the rotor passage are modeled using one-dimensional gas dynamics. Macroscopic mass and energy balances relate volume-averaged thermodynamic properties in the rotor passage control volume to the mass, momentum, and energy fluxes at the ports. Loss models account for entropy production in boundary layers and in separating flows caused by blade-blockage, incidence, and gradual opening and closing of rotor passages. The mathematical model provides a basis for predicting design-point wave rotor performance, port timing, and machine size. Model predictions are evaluated through comparisons with CFD calculations and three-port wave rotor experimental data. A four-port wave rotor design example is provided to demonstrate model applicability. The modeling approach is amenable to wave rotor optimization studies and rapid assessment of the trade-offs associated with integrating wave rotors into gas turbine engine systems.

  18. The Prediction of Wave Competitions in Inhomogeneous Brusselator Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui Xiao-Hua; Dong Yun-Xia; Huang Xiao-Qing; Li Ning

    2015-01-01

    The competition of waves has remained a hot topic in physics over the past few decades, especially the area of pattern control. Because of improved understanding of various dynamic behaviors, many practical applications have sprung up recently. The prediction of wave competitions is also very important and quite useful in these fields. This paper considers the behaviors of wave competitions in simple, inhomogeneous media which is modeled by Brusselator equations. We present a simple rule to judge the results of wave competitions utilizing the dispersion relation curves and the waves coming from different wave sources. Moreover, this rule can also be used to predict the results of wave propagation. It provides methods of obtaining the desired waves with given frequencies in inhomogeneous media. All our results are concluded and verified by computer simulations. (paper)

  19. Instantaneous wave emission model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruer, W.L.

    1970-12-01

    A useful treatment of electrostatic wave emission by fast particles in a plasma is given. First, the potential due to a fast particle is expressed as a simple integration over the particle orbit; several interesting results readily follow. The potential in the wake of an accelerating particle is shown to be essentially that produced through local excitation of the plasma by the particle free-streaming about its instantaneous orbit. Application is made to one dimension, and it is shown that the wave emission and adsorption synchronize to the instantaneous velocity distribution function. Guided by these calculations, we then formulate a test particle model for computing the instantaneous wave emission by fast particles in a Vlasov plasma. This model lends itself to physical interpretation and provides a direct approach to many problems. By adopting a Fokker-Planck description for the particle dynamics, we calculate the broadening of the wave-particle resonance due to velocity diffusion and drag

  20. Application of State of Art Modeling Techniques to Predict Flooding and Waves for an Exposed Coastal Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm L. Spaulding

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs are developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA to provide guidance in establishing the risk to structures and infrastructure in the coastal zone from storm surge and coincidental waves. The maps are used by state agencies and municipalities to help guide coastal planning and establish the minimum elevation standard for new or substantially improved structures. A summary of the methods used and results of 2012 FIRM mapping are presented for Charlestown, RI; a coastal community located along the exposed, southern shoreline of the state. Concerns with the methods used in the 2012 analysis are put in context with the National Research Council’s (NRC 2009 review of the FEMA coastal mapping program. New mapping is then performed using state of the art, fully coupled surge and wave modeling and data analysis methods to address the concerns in the NRC review. The new maps and methodologies are in compliance with FEMA regulations and guidelines. The approach makes extensive use of the numerical modeling results from the recent US Army Corp of Engineers (USACE, North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS 2015. Revised flood maps are presented and compared with the 2012 FIRM map to provide insight into the differences. The new maps highlight the importance of developing better estimates of offshore surge dynamics and its coupling to waves, dune erosion based on local observations, and the advancement in nearshore mapping of waves in flood inundated areas by the use of state of the art, two-dimensional wave transformation models.

  1. Predictability and Variability of Wave and Wind

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, Hans Christian

    This project covers two fields of study: a) Wave energy predictability and electricity markets. b) Variability of the power output of WECs in diversified systems : diversified renewable systems with wave and offshore wind production. See page 2-4 in the report for a executive summery....

  2. Predictability of Wave Energy and Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez

    2012-01-01

    The articlw addresses an important challenge ahead the integration of the electricity generated by wave energy conversion technologies into the electric grid. Particularly, it looks into the role of wave energy within the day-ahead electricity market. For that the predictability of the theoretical...... power outputs of three wave energy technologies in the Danish North Sea are examined. The simultaneous and co-located forecast and buoy-measured wave parameters at Hanstholm, Denmark, during a non-consecutive autumn and winter 3-month period form the basis of the investigation. The objective...

  3. Directional Validation of Wave Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-03-01

    motivators: I) the desire to make the problem more solution is simply to use only variables directly Cx- manageable via frequency-wise integration of direc...ViaW()2 + bi(f), where . = j F(f) d. The calculation in reverse is a, = in, cosO , and b, = ni, sinf0 . Note that if we choose f, andf2 as values close...34). The use of a broader band of frequencies makes the metric more stable, but CALCULATION OF MEAN WAVE DIRECTION AND increases the risk that two

  4. Models of wave memory

    CERN Document Server

    Kashchenko, Serguey

    2015-01-01

    This monograph examines in detail models of neural systems described by delay-differential equations. Each element of the medium (neuron) is an oscillator that generates, in standalone mode, short impulses also known as spikes. The book discusses models of synaptic interaction between neurons, which lead to complex oscillatory modes in the system. In addition, it presents a solution to the problem of choosing the parameters of interaction in order to obtain attractors with predetermined structure. These attractors are represented as images encoded in the form of autowaves (wave memory). The target audience primarily comprises researchers and experts in the field, but it will also be beneficial for graduate students.

  5. J Waves for Predicting Cardiac Events in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuda, Toyonobu; Hayashi, Kenshi; Konno, Tetsuo; Sakata, Kenji; Fujita, Takashi; Hodatsu, Akihiko; Nagata, Yoji; Teramoto, Ryota; Nomura, Akihiro; Tanaka, Yoshihiro; Furusho, Hiroshi; Takamura, Masayuki; Kawashiri, Masa-Aki; Fujino, Noboru; Yamagishi, Masakazu

    2017-10-01

    This study sought to investigate whether the presence of J waves was associated with cardiac events in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). It has been uncertain whether the presence of J waves predicts life-threatening cardiac events in patients with HCM. This study evaluated consecutive 338 patients with HCM (207 men; age 61 ± 17 years of age). A J-wave was defined as J-point elevation >0.1 mV in at least 2 contiguous inferior and/or lateral leads. Cardiac events were defined as sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation or sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardiac defibrillator therapy. The study also investigated whether adding the J-wave in a conventional risk model improved a prediction of cardiac events. J waves were seen in 46 (13.6%) patients at registration. Cardiac events occurred in 31 patients (9.2%) during median follow-up of 4.9 years (interquartile range: 2.6 to 7.1 years). In a Cox proportional hazards model, the presence of J waves was significantly associated with cardiac events (adjusted hazard ratio: 4.01; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78 to 9.05; p = 0.001). Compared with the conventional risk model, the model using J waves in addition to conventional risks better predicted cardiac events (net reclassification improvement, 0.55; 95% CI: 0.20 to 0.90; p = 0.002). The presence of J waves was significantly associated with cardiac events in HCM. Adding J waves to conventional cardiac risk factors improved prediction of cardiac events. Further confirmatory studies are needed before considering J-point elevation as a marker of risk for use in making management decisions regarding risk in patients with HCM. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Experimental Confirmation of Nonlinear-Model- Predictive Control Applied Offline to a Permanent Magnet Linear Generator for Ocean-Wave Energy Conversion

    KAUST Repository

    Tom, Nathan; Yeung, Ronald W.

    2015-01-01

    To further maximize power absorption in both regular and irregular ocean wave environments, nonlinear-model-predictive control (NMPC) was applied to a model-scale point absorber developed at the University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA. The NMPC strategy requires a power-takeoff (PTO) unit that could be turned on and off, as the generator would be inactive for up to 60% of the wave period. To confirm the effectiveness of this NMPC strategy, an in-house-designed permanent magnet linear generator (PMLG) was chosen as the PTO. The time-varying performance of the PMLG was first characterized by dry-bench tests, using mechanical relays to control the electromagnetic conversion process. The on/off sequencing of the PMLG was tested under regular and irregular wave excitation to validate NMPC simulations using control inputs obtained from running the choice optimizer offline. Experimental results indicate that successful implementation was achieved and absorbed power using NMPC was up to 50% greater than the passive system, which utilized no controller. Previous investigations into MPC applied to wave energy converters have lacked the experimental results to confirm the reported gains in power absorption. However, after considering the PMLG mechanical-to-electrical conversion efficiency, the electrical power output was not consistently maximized. To improve output power, a mathematical relation between the efficiency and damping magnitude of the PMLG was inserted in the system model to maximize the electrical power output through continued use of NMPC which helps separate this work from previous investigators. Of significance, results from latter simulations provided a damping time series that was active over a larger portion of the wave period requiring the actuation of the applied electrical load, rather than on/off control.

  7. Model for shock wave chaos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimov, Aslan R; Faria, Luiz M; Rosales, Rodolfo R

    2013-03-08

    We propose the following model equation, u(t) + 1/2(u(2)-uu(s))x = f(x,u(s)) that predicts chaotic shock waves, similar to those in detonations in chemically reacting mixtures. The equation is given on the half line, xorder partial differential equation. The chaos arises in the equation thanks to an interplay between the nonlinearity of the inviscid Burgers equation and a novel forcing term that is nonlocal in nature and has deep physical roots in reactive Euler equations.

  8. A comparison of model-scale experimental measurements and computational predictions for a large transom-stern wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shea, Thomas T.; Beale, Kristy L. C.; Brucker, Kyle A.; Wyatt, Donald C.; Drazen, David; Fullerton, Anne M.; Fu, Tom C.; Dommermuth, Douglas G.

    2010-11-01

    Numerical Flow Analysis (NFA) predictions of the flow around a transom-stern hull form are compared to laboratory measurements collected at NSWCCD. The simulations are two-phase, three-dimensional, and unsteady. Each required 1.15 billion grid cells and 200,000 CPU hours to accurately resolve the unsteady flow and obtain a sufficient statistical ensemble size. Two speeds, 7 and 8 knots, are compared. The 7 knots (Fr=Uo /√gLo=0.38) case is a partially wetted transom condition and the 8 knots (Fr=0.43) case is a dry transom condition. The results of a detailed comparison of the mean free surface elevation, surface roughness (RMS), and spectra of the breaking stern-waves, measured by Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) and Quantitative Visualization (QViz) sensors, are presented. All of the comparisons showed excellent agreement. The concept of height-function processing is introduced, and the application of this type of processing to the simulation data shows a k-5/3 power law behavior for both the 7 and 8 knot cases. The simulations also showed that a multiphase shear layer forms in the rooster-tail region and that its thickness depends on the Froude number.

  9. Model for Shock Wave Chaos

    KAUST Repository

    Kasimov, Aslan R.

    2013-03-08

    We propose the following model equation, ut+1/2(u2−uus)x=f(x,us) that predicts chaotic shock waves, similar to those in detonations in chemically reacting mixtures. The equation is given on the half line, x<0, and the shock is located at x=0 for any t≥0. Here, us(t) is the shock state and the source term f is taken to mimic the chemical energy release in detonations. This equation retains the essential physics needed to reproduce many properties of detonations in gaseous reactive mixtures: steady traveling wave solutions, instability of such solutions, and the onset of chaos. Our model is the first (to our knowledge) to describe chaos in shock waves by a scalar first-order partial differential equation. The chaos arises in the equation thanks to an interplay between the nonlinearity of the inviscid Burgers equation and a novel forcing term that is nonlocal in nature and has deep physical roots in reactive Euler equations.

  10. Predicting Waves in the Pacific Northwest of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozkan-Haller, H. T.; Oskamp, J. A.; Garcia, G.; Kassem, S.; McNutt, J.

    2010-12-01

    The Pacific Northwest region of the US is characterized by an energetic deep water wave climate with large swell and sea waves that can approach from multiple directions. As these waves propagate from the open ocean over the continental shelf towards shore, they are affected by the underwater topography (or bathymetry) of the shelf. The US West Coast shelf is characterized by complicated bathymetry with numerous canyons and large banks. Such features can at places focus wave energy and at others divert waves away. As a result the wave field near the coast (in 10-50m water depth) varies significantly along the coast. Although a comprehensive prediction and validation effort for waves exists for the California shoreline, it is currently lacking for the Pacific Northwest shorelines. Herein, we present comprehensive long-term wave model simulations for several regions within the Oregon coastline, show validation of the results with existing nearshore observations, and discuss the dominant dynamics responsible for the observed wave transformation.

  11. Augmented chaos-multiple linear regression approach for prediction of wave parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Ghorbani

    2017-06-01

    The inter-comparisons demonstrated that the Chaos-MLR and pure MLR models yield almost the same accuracy in predicting the significant wave heights and the zero-up-crossing wave periods. Whereas, the augmented Chaos-MLR model is performed better results in term of the prediction accuracy vis-a-vis the previous prediction applications of the same case study.

  12. Attenuation of surface waves due to monsoon rains: A model study for the north Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vethamony, P.; Kumar, B.P.; Sarma, Y.V.B.

    The dynamic interaction of intense rain with waves based on momentum exchange is applied to a second generation wave model to predict wave attenuation during monsoon. The scheme takes into account the characteristics of rain and wave parameters...

  13. Horizontal circulation and jumps in Hamiltonian wave models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gagarina, Elena; van der Vegt, Jacobus J.W.; Bokhove, Onno

    2013-01-01

    We are interested in the numerical modeling of wave-current interactions around surf zones at beaches. Any model that aims to predict the onset of wave breaking at the breaker line needs to capture both the nonlinearity of the wave and its dispersion. We have therefore formulated the Hamiltonian

  14. COMPARISON STUDY OF EXPERIMENTS AND PREDICTIONS OF WAVE KINEMATICS FOR ROGUE WAVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hae Jin Choi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the wave kinematics under the rogue wave crest, a series of experiments were performed in 2-D wave tank with the application of PIV technique to measure the velocities under the free surface. Three different prediction methods of linear extrapolation, Wheeler stretching, and modified stretching were applied to estimate water wave kinematics and compared with PIV experimental results under the highest wave crest of irregular wave trains satisfying with rogue wave criteria. Also, the cut-off frequency dependence for three prediction methods was investigated with varying spectral peak frequencies to estimate wave kinematics including velocities and accelerations in horizontal and vertical directions. It was suggested that the cut-off frequency for the reasonable prediction of the wave kinematics under the rogue wave crest could be chosen three times of spectral peak wave frequency for the linear extrapolation and higher frequency than four times of spectral peak wave frequency for Wheeler stretching and modified stretching method.

  15. Wave Generation in Physical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Frigaard, Peter

    The present book describes the most important aspects of wave generation techniques in physical models. Moreover, the book serves as technical documentation for the wave generation software AwaSys 6, cf. Aalborg University (2012). In addition to the two main authors also Tue Hald and Michael...

  16. Model for Shock Wave Chaos

    KAUST Repository

    Kasimov, Aslan R.; Faria, Luiz; Rosales, Rodolfo R.

    2013-01-01

    : steady traveling wave solutions, instability of such solutions, and the onset of chaos. Our model is the first (to our knowledge) to describe chaos in shock waves by a scalar first-order partial differential equation. The chaos arises in the equation

  17. Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

    2008-01-01

    Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

  18. Modeling ionization by helicon waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degeling, A.W.; Boswell, R.W.

    1997-01-01

    The response of the electron distribution function in one dimension to a traveling wave electric field is modeled for parameters relevant to a low-pressure helicon wave plasma source, and the resulting change in the ionization rate calculated. This is done by calculating the trajectories of individual electrons in a given wave field and assuming no collisions to build up the distribution function as the distance from the antenna is increased. The ionization rate is calculated for argon by considering the ionization cross section and electron flux at a specified position and time relative to the left-hand boundary, where the distribution function is assumed to be Maxwellian and the wave travels to the right. The simulation shows pulses in the ionization rate that move away from the antenna at the phase velocity of the wave, demonstrating the effect of resonant electrons trapped in the wave close-quote s frame of reference. It is found that the ionization rate is highest when the phase velocity of the wave is between 2 and 3x10 6 m/s, where the electrons interacting strongly with the wave (i.e., electrons with velocities inside the wave close-quote s open-quotes trapping widthclose quotes) have initial energies just below the ionization threshold. Results from the model are compared with experimental data and show reasonable qualitative agreement. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  19. Short-Term Wave Forecasting with AR models in Real-Time Optimal Control of Wave Energy Converters

    OpenAIRE

    Fusco, Francesco; Ringwood, John

    2010-01-01

    Time domain control of wave energy converters requires knowledge of future incident wave elevation in order to approach conditions for optimal energy extraction. Autoregressive models revealed to be a promising approach to the prediction of future values of the wave elevation only from its past history. Results on real wave observations from different ocean locations show that AR models allow to achieve very good predictions for more than one wave period in the future if ...

  20. The U.S. Navy's Global Wind-Wave Models: An Investigation into Sources of Errors in Low-Frequency Energy Predictions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rogers, W

    2002-01-01

    This report describes an investigation to determine the relative importance of various sources of error in the two global-scale models of wind-generated surface waves used operationally by the U.S. Navy...

  1. Improved Wave-vessel Transfer Functions by Uncertainty Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Fønss Bach, Kasper; Iseki, Toshio

    2016-01-01

    This paper deals with uncertainty modelling of wave-vessel transfer functions used to calculate or predict wave-induced responses of a ship in a seaway. Although transfer functions, in theory, can be calculated to exactly reflect the behaviour of the ship when exposed to waves, uncertainty in inp...

  2. A wave model test bed study for wave energy resource characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Neary, Vincent S.; Wang, Taiping; Gunawan, Budi; Dallman, Annie R.; Wu, Wei-Cheng

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a test bed study conducted to evaluate best practices in wave modeling to characterize energy resources. The model test bed off the central Oregon Coast was selected because of the high wave energy and available measured data at the site. Two third-generation spectral wave models, SWAN and WWIII, were evaluated. A four-level nested-grid approach—from global to test bed scale—was employed. Model skills were assessed using a set of model performance metrics based on comparing six simulated wave resource parameters to observations from a wave buoy inside the test bed. Both WWIII and SWAN performed well at the test bed site and exhibited similar modeling skills. The ST4 package with WWIII, which represents better physics for wave growth and dissipation, out-performed ST2 physics and improved wave power density and significant wave height predictions. However, ST4 physics tended to overpredict the wave energy period. The newly developed ST6 physics did not improve the overall model skill for predicting the six wave resource parameters. Sensitivity analysis using different wave frequencies and direction resolutions indicated the model results were not sensitive to spectral resolutions at the test bed site, likely due to the absence of complex bathymetric and geometric features.

  3. LLNL-G3Dv3: Global P wave tomography model for improved regional and teleseismic travel time prediction: LLNL-G3DV3---GLOBAL P WAVE TOMOGRAPHY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simmons, N. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Myers, S. C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Johannesson, G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Matzel, E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2012-10-06

    [1] We develop a global-scale P wave velocity model (LLNL-G3Dv3) designed to accurately predict seismic travel times at regional and teleseismic distances simultaneously. The model provides a new image of Earth's interior, but the underlying practical purpose of the model is to provide enhanced seismic event location capabilities. The LLNL-G3Dv3 model is based on ∼2.8 millionP and Pnarrivals that are re-processed using our global multiple-event locator called Bayesloc. We construct LLNL-G3Dv3 within a spherical tessellation based framework, allowing for explicit representation of undulating and discontinuous layers including the crust and transition zone layers. Using a multiscale inversion technique, regional trends as well as fine details are captured where the data allow. LLNL-G3Dv3 exhibits large-scale structures including cratons and superplumes as well numerous complex details in the upper mantle including within the transition zone. Particularly, the model reveals new details of a vast network of subducted slabs trapped within the transition beneath much of Eurasia, including beneath the Tibetan Plateau. We demonstrate the impact of Bayesloc multiple-event location on the resulting tomographic images through comparison with images produced without the benefit of multiple-event constraints (single-event locations). We find that the multiple-event locations allow for better reconciliation of the large set of direct P phases recorded at 0–97° distance and yield a smoother and more continuous image relative to the single-event locations. Travel times predicted from a 3-D model are also found to be strongly influenced by the initial locations of the input data, even when an iterative inversion/relocation technique is employed.

  4. Predicting Output Power for Nearshore Wave Energy Harvesting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henock Mamo Deberneh

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Energy harvested from a Wave Energy Converter (WEC varies greatly with the location of its installation. Determining an optimal location that can result in maximum output power is therefore critical. In this paper, we present a novel approach to predicting the output power of a nearshore WEC by characterizing ocean waves using floating buoys. We monitored the movement of the buoys using an Arduino-based data collection module, including a gyro-accelerometer sensor and a wireless transceiver. The collected data were utilized to train and test prediction models. The models were developed using machine learning algorithms: SVM, RF and ANN. The results of the experiments showed that measurements from the data collection module can yield a reliable predictor of output power. Furthermore, we found that the predictors work better when the regressors are combined with a classifier. The accuracy of the proposed prediction model suggests that it could be extremely useful in both locating optimal placement for wave energy harvesting plants and designing the shape of the buoys used by them.

  5. A test-bed modeling study for wave resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Neary, V. S.; Wang, T.; Gunawan, B.; Dallman, A.

    2016-02-01

    Hindcasts from phase-averaged wave models are commonly used to estimate standard statistics used in wave energy resource assessments. However, the research community and wave energy converter industry is lacking a well-documented and consistent modeling approach for conducting these resource assessments at different phases of WEC project development, and at different spatial scales, e.g., from small-scale pilot study to large-scale commercial deployment. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate current wave model codes, as well as limitations and knowledge gaps for predicting sea states, in order to establish best wave modeling practices, and to identify future research needs to improve wave prediction for resource assessment. This paper presents the first phase of an on-going modeling study to address these concerns. The modeling study is being conducted at a test-bed site off the Central Oregon Coast using two of the most widely-used third-generation wave models - WaveWatchIII and SWAN. A nested-grid modeling approach, with domain dimension ranging from global to regional scales, was used to provide wave spectral boundary condition to a local scale model domain, which has a spatial dimension around 60km by 60km and a grid resolution of 250m - 300m. Model results simulated by WaveWatchIII and SWAN in a structured-grid framework are compared to NOAA wave buoy data for the six wave parameters, including omnidirectional wave power, significant wave height, energy period, spectral width, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power, and directionality coefficient. Model performance and computational efficiency are evaluated, and the best practices for wave resource assessments are discussed, based on a set of standard error statistics and model run times.

  6. A Novel Grey Wave Method for Predicting Total Chinese Trade Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kedong Yin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The total trade volume of a country is an important way of appraising its international trade situation. A prediction based on trade volume will help enterprises arrange production efficiently and promote the sustainability of the international trade. Because the total Chinese trade volume fluctuates over time, this paper proposes a Grey wave forecasting model with a Hodrick–Prescott filter (HP filter to forecast it. This novel model first parses time series into long-term trend and short-term cycle. Second, the model uses a general GM (1,1 to predict the trend term and the Grey wave forecasting model to predict the cycle term. Empirical analysis shows that the improved Grey wave prediction method provides a much more accurate forecast than the basic Grey wave prediction method, achieving better prediction results than autoregressive moving average model (ARMA.

  7. Modelling of the Overtopping Flow on the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parmeggiani, Stefano; Pecher, Arthur; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2010-01-01

    The Wave Dragon is a floating slack-moored Wave Energy Converter of the overtopping type, which is facing now the last phase of development before the commercial exploitation: the deployment of a full-scale demonstrator. In this phase a modelling tool allowing for accurate predictions of the perf......The Wave Dragon is a floating slack-moored Wave Energy Converter of the overtopping type, which is facing now the last phase of development before the commercial exploitation: the deployment of a full-scale demonstrator. In this phase a modelling tool allowing for accurate predictions...

  8. A novel method for predicting the power outputs of wave energy converters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingguang

    2018-03-01

    This paper focuses on realistically predicting the power outputs of wave energy converters operating in shallow water nonlinear waves. A heaving two-body point absorber is utilized as a specific calculation example, and the generated power of the point absorber has been predicted by using a novel method (a nonlinear simulation method) that incorporates a second order random wave model into a nonlinear dynamic filter. It is demonstrated that the second order random wave model in this article can be utilized to generate irregular waves with realistic crest-trough asymmetries, and consequently, more accurate generated power can be predicted by subsequently solving the nonlinear dynamic filter equation with the nonlinearly simulated second order waves as inputs. The research findings demonstrate that the novel nonlinear simulation method in this article can be utilized as a robust tool for ocean engineers in their design, analysis and optimization of wave energy converters.

  9. Wave and Wind Model Performance Metrics Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, J. K.; Wang, D. W.

    2016-02-01

    Continual improvements and upgrades of Navy ocean wave and wind models are essential to the assurance of battlespace environment predictability of ocean surface wave and surf conditions in support of Naval global operations. Thus, constant verification and validation of model performance is equally essential to assure the progress of model developments and maintain confidence in the predictions. Global and regional scale model evaluations may require large areas and long periods of time. For observational data to compare against, altimeter winds and waves along the tracks from past and current operational satellites as well as moored/drifting buoys can be used for global and regional coverage. Using data and model runs in previous trials such as the planned experiment, the Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real Time (DART), we demonstrated the use of accumulated altimeter wind and wave data over several years to obtain an objective evaluation of the performance the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model running in the Adriatic Sea. The assessment provided detailed performance of wind and wave models by using cell-averaged statistical variables maps with spatial statistics including slope, correlation, and scatter index to summarize model performance. Such a methodology is easily generalized to other regions and at global scales. Operational technology currently used by subject matter experts evaluating the Navy Coastal Ocean Model and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model can be expanded to evaluate wave and wind models using tools developed for ArcMAP, a GIS application developed by ESRI. Recent inclusion of altimeter and buoy data into a format through the Naval Oceanographic Office's (NAVOCEANO) quality control system and the netCDF standards applicable to all model output makes it possible for the fusion of these data and direct model verification. Also, procedures were developed for the accumulation of match-ups of modelled and observed parameters to form a data base

  10. Experimental Modeling of the Overtopping Flow on the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parmeggiani, Stefano; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Friis-Madsen, Erik

    2011-01-01

    The Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter is currently facing a precommercial phase. At this stage of development a reliable overtopping model is highly required, in order to predict the performance of the device at possible deployment locations. A model formulation derived for an overtopping device...... with general geometry has been used so far. The paper presents an updated formulation drawn through the tank testing of a scaled model the Wave Dragon. The sensitivity analysis of the main features influencing the overtopping flow led to an updated model formulation which can be specifically suited...... for the Wave Dragon....

  11. Modelling offshore sand wave evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nemeth, Attila; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; van Damme, Rudolf M.J.

    2007-01-01

    We present a two-dimensional vertical (2DV) flow and morphological numerical model describing the behaviour of offshore sand waves. The model contains the 2DV shallow water equations, with a free water surface and a general bed load formula. The water movement is coupled to the sediment transport

  12. Reduced-order prediction of rogue waves in two-dimensional deep-water waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapsis, Themistoklis; Farazmand, Mohammad

    2017-11-01

    We consider the problem of large wave prediction in two-dimensional water waves. Such waves form due to the synergistic effect of dispersive mixing of smaller wave groups and the action of localized nonlinear wave interactions that leads to focusing. Instead of a direct simulation approach, we rely on the decomposition of the wave field into a discrete set of localized wave groups with optimal length scales and amplitudes. Due to the short-term character of the prediction, these wave groups do not interact and therefore their dynamics can be characterized individually. Using direct numerical simulations of the governing envelope equations we precompute the expected maximum elevation for each of those wave groups. The combination of the wave field decomposition algorithm, which provides information about the statistics of the system, and the precomputed map for the expected wave group elevation, which encodes dynamical information, allows (i) for understanding of how the probability of occurrence of rogue waves changes as the spectrum parameters vary, (ii) the computation of a critical length scale characterizing wave groups with high probability of evolving to rogue waves, and (iii) the formulation of a robust and parsimonious reduced-order prediction scheme for large waves. T.S. has been supported through the ONR Grants N00014-14-1-0520 and N00014-15-1-2381 and the AFOSR Grant FA9550-16-1-0231. M.F. has been supported through the second Grant.

  13. Defining and Predicting Heat Waves in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nissan, H.; Burkart, K.; Coughlan, E.R.; van Aalst, M.; Mason, S.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a heat-wave definition for Bangladesh that could be used to trigger preparedness measures in a heat early warning system (HEWS) and explores the climate mechanisms associated with heat waves. A HEWSrequires a definition of heat waves that is both related to human health outcomes

  14. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  15. Statistical Analysis of Wave Climate Data Using Mixed Distributions and Extreme Wave Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of various aspects of the wave climate at a wave energy test site is essential for the development of reliable and efficient wave energy conversion technology. This paper presents studies of the wave climate based on nine years of wave observations from the 2005–2013 period measured with a wave measurement buoy at the Lysekil wave energy test site located off the west coast of Sweden. A detailed analysis of the wave statistics is investigated to reveal the characteristics of the wave climate at this specific test site. The long-term extreme waves are estimated from applying the Peak over Threshold (POT method on the measured wave data. The significant wave height and the maximum wave height at the test site for different return periods are also compared. In this study, a new approach using a mixed-distribution model is proposed to describe the long-term behavior of the significant wave height and it shows an impressive goodness of fit to wave data from the test site. The mixed-distribution model is also applied to measured wave data from four other sites and it provides an illustration of the general applicability of the proposed model. The methodologies used in this paper can be applied to general wave climate analysis of wave energy test sites to estimate extreme waves for the survivability assessment of wave energy converters and characterize the long wave climate to forecast the wave energy resource of the test sites and the energy production of the wave energy converters.

  16. Forecasting ocean wave energy: A Comparison of the ECMWF wave model with time series methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reikard, Gordon; Pinson, Pierre; Bidlot, Jean

    2011-01-01

    Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several...... days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts...... (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave...

  17. Model Test Bed for Evaluating Wave Models and Best Practices for Resource Assessment and Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neary, Vincent Sinclair [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies; Yang, Zhaoqing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Coastal Sciences Division; Wang, Taiping [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Coastal Sciences Division; Gunawan, Budi [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies; Dallman, Ann Renee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies

    2016-03-01

    A wave model test bed is established to benchmark, test and evaluate spectral wave models and modeling methodologies (i.e., best practices) for predicting the wave energy resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission, IEC TS 62600-101Ed. 1.0 ©2015. Among other benefits, the model test bed can be used to investigate the suitability of different models, specifically what source terms should be included in spectral wave models under different wave climate conditions and for different classes of resource assessment. The overarching goal is to use these investigations to provide industry guidance for model selection and modeling best practices depending on the wave site conditions and desired class of resource assessment. Modeling best practices are reviewed, and limitations and knowledge gaps in predicting wave energy resource parameters are identified.

  18. Turbine Control Strategy using Wave Prediction to Optimise Power Take Off of Overtopping Wave Energy Converters

    OpenAIRE

    Tedd, James; Knapp, Wilfried; Frigaard, Peter; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the control strategy used on Wave Dragon overtopping wave energy converter. The nature of overtopping requires that for optimum performance the water level in the reservoir must be controlled by controlling the turbine outflows. A history of the simulations performed is included. The concept of including an element of prediction, based on wave records a short distance in front of the Wave Dragon, is introduced. Initial simulations indicate a possibility to increase product...

  19. Application of State of the Art Modeling Techniques to Predict Flooding and Waves for a Coastal Area within a Protected Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm L. Spaulding

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs are developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA to provide guidance in establishing the risk to structures and infrastructure from storm surge sand associated waves in the coastal zone. The maps are used by state agencies and municipalities to help guide coastal planning and establish the minimum elevation and construction standards for new or substantially improved structures. A summary of the methods used and a comparison with the results of 2013 FIRM mapping are presented for Warwick, Rhode Island (RI, a coastal community located within Narragansett Bay. Because of its location, Warwick is protected from significant coastal erosion and wave attacks, but is subject to surge amplification. Concerns surrounding the FEMA methods used in the 2013 FIRM analysis are put in context with the National Research Council’s (NRC 2009 review of the FEMA coastal mapping program. New mapping is then performed using state of the art, fully coupled surge and wave modeling, and data analysis methods, to address the NRC concerns. The new maps and methodologies are in compliance with FEMA regulations and guidelines. This new approach makes extensive use of the numerical modeling results from the recent US Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS, 2015. Revised flooding maps are presented and compared to the 2013 FIRM maps, to provide insight into the differences. The new maps highlight the importance of developing better estimates of surge dynamics and the advancement in nearshore mapping of waves in flood inundated areas by the use of state of the art, two-dimensional, wave transformation models.

  20. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  1. A generalized multivariate regression model for modelling ocean wave heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X. L.; Feng, Y.; Swail, V. R.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a generalized multivariate linear regression model is developed to represent the relationship between 6-hourly ocean significant wave heights (Hs) and the corresponding 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields. The model is calibrated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and MSLP fields for 1981-2000, and is validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2001-2010 and ERA40 reanalysis of Hs and MSLP for 1958-2001. The performance of the fitted model is evaluated in terms of Pierce skill score, frequency bias index, and correlation skill score. Being not normally distributed, wave heights are subjected to a data adaptive Box-Cox transformation before being used in the model fitting. Also, since 6-hourly data are being modelled, lag-1 autocorrelation must be and is accounted for. The models with and without Box-Cox transformation, and with and without accounting for autocorrelation, are inter-compared in terms of their prediction skills. The fitted MSLP-Hs relationship is then used to reconstruct historical wave height climate from the 6-hourly MSLP fields taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al. 2011), and to project possible future wave height climates using CMIP5 model simulations of MSLP fields. The reconstructed and projected wave heights, both seasonal means and maxima, are subject to a trend analysis that allows for non-linear (polynomial) trends.

  2. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  3. Modeling sheet-flow sand transport under progressive surface waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kranenburg, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    In the near-shore zone, energetic sea waves generate sheet-flow sand transport. In present day coastal models, wave-induced sheet-flow sand transport rates are usually predicted with semi-empirical transport formulas, based on extensive research on this phenomenon in oscillatory flow tunnels.

  4. Wave Resource Characterization Using an Unstructured Grid Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Cheng Wu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a modeling study conducted on the central Oregon coast for wave resource characterization, using the unstructured grid Simulating WAve Nearshore (SWAN model coupled with a nested grid WAVEWATCH III® (WWIII model. The flexibility of models with various spatial resolutions and the effects of open boundary conditions simulated by a nested grid WWIII model with different physics packages were evaluated. The model results demonstrate the advantage of the unstructured grid-modeling approach for flexible model resolution and good model skills in simulating the six wave resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission in comparison to the observed data in Year 2009 at National Data Buoy Center Buoy 46050. Notably, spectral analysis indicates that the ST4 physics package improves upon the ST2 physics package’s ability to predict wave power density for large waves, which is important for wave resource assessment, load calculation of devices, and risk management. In addition, bivariate distributions show that the simulated sea state of maximum occurrence with the ST4 physics package matched the observed data better than with the ST2 physics package. This study demonstrated that the unstructured grid wave modeling approach, driven by regional nested grid WWIII outputs along with the ST4 physics package, can efficiently provide accurate wave hindcasts to support wave resource characterization. Our study also suggests that wind effects need to be considered if the dimension of the model domain is greater than approximately 100 km, or O (102 km.

  5. Overview of Wave to Wire Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kim; Kramer, Morten Mejlhede; Ferri, Francesco

    A “Wave to Wire” (W2W) model is a numerical tool that can calculate the power output from a specified Wave Energy Converter (WEC), under specified ocean wave conditions. The tool can be used to assess and optimize the performance of a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) design and provide knowledge...

  6. Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

  7. Modeling stress wave propagation in rocks by distinct lattice spring model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaofeng Zhao

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the ability of the distinct lattice spring model (DLSM for modeling stress wave propagation in rocks was fully investigated. The influence of particle size on simulation of different types of stress waves (e.g. one-dimensional (1D P-wave, 1D S-wave and two-dimensional (2D cylindrical wave was studied through comparing results predicted by the DLSM with different mesh ratios (lr and those obtained from the corresponding analytical solutions. Suggested values of lr were obtained for modeling these stress waves accurately. Moreover, the weak material layer method and virtual joint plane method were used to model P-wave and S-wave propagating through a single discontinuity. The results were compared with the classical analytical solutions, indicating that the virtual joint plane method can give better results and is recommended. Finally, some remarks of the DLSM on modeling of stress wave propagation in rocks were provided.

  8. Simulation and Prediction of Weather Radar Clutter Using a Wave Propagator on High Resolution NWP Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benzon, Hans-Henrik; Bovith, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    for prediction of this type of weather radar clutter is presented. The method uses a wave propagator to identify areas of potential non-standard propagation. The wave propagator uses a three dimensional refractivity field derived from the geophysical parameters: temperature, humidity, and pressure obtained from......Weather radars are essential sensors for observation of precipitation in the troposphere and play a major part in weather forecasting and hydrological modelling. Clutter caused by non-standard wave propagation is a common problem in weather radar applications, and in this paper a method...... a high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. The wave propagator is based on the parabolic equation approximation to the electromagnetic wave equation. The parabolic equation is solved using the well-known Fourier split-step method. Finally, the radar clutter prediction technique is used...

  9. Comprehensive Prediction of Large-height Swell-like Waves in East Coast of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, S. J.; Lee, C.; Ahn, S. J.; Kim, H. K.

    2014-12-01

    There have been growing interests in the large-height swell-like wave (LSW) in the east coast of Korea because such big waves have caused human victims as well as damages to facilities such as breakwaters in the coast. The LSW was found to be generated due to an atmospherically great valley in the north area of the East Sea and then propagate long distance to the east coast of Korea in prominently southwest direction (Oh et al., 2010).In this study, we will perform two methods, real-time data based and numerical-model based predictions in order to predict the LSW in the east coast of Korea. First, the real-time data based prediction method uses information which is collected by the directional wave gauge installed near Sokcho. Using the wave model SWAN (Booij et al., 1999) and the wave ray method (Munk and Arthur, 1952), we will estimate wave data in open sea from the real-time data and predict the travel time of LSW from the measurement site (near Sokcho) to several target points in the east coast of Korea. Second, the numerical-model based method uses three different numerical models; WW3 in deep water, SWAN in shallow water, and CADMAS-SURF for wave run-up (CDIT). The surface winds from the 72 hours prediction system of NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) GFS (Global Forecast System) will be inputted in finer grids after interpolating these in certain domains of WW3 and SWAN models. The significant wave heights and peak wave directions predicted by the two methods will be compared to the measured data of LSW at several target points near the coasts. Further, the prediction method will be improved using more measurement sites which will be installed in the future. ReferencesBooij, N., Ris, R.C., and Holthuijsen, L.H. (1999). A third-generation wave model for coastal regions 1. Model description and validation. J. of Geophysical Research, 103(C4), 7649-7666.Munk, W.H. and Arthur, R.S. (1952). Gravity Waves. 13. Wave Intensity along a Refracted Ray

  10. Comparison between predicted and observed sand waves and sand banks in the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; van den Brink, G.M.

    2001-01-01

    For the first time a prediction model of regular morphological patterns on the seabed was tested against observations of sand wave and sand bank occurrence in the entire North Sea. The model, which originates from first physical principles, predicts this occurrence via two dimensionless parameters

  11. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  12. A coupling modulation model of capillary waves from gravity waves: Theoretical analysis and experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Pengzhen; Wang, Xiaoqing; Liu, Li; Chong, Jinsong

    2016-06-01

    According to Bragg theory, capillary waves are the predominant scatterers of high-frequency band (such as Ka-band) microwave radiation from the surface of the ocean. Therefore, understanding the modulation mechanism of capillary waves is an important foundation for interpreting high-frequency microwave remote sensing images of the surface of the sea. In our experiments, we discovered that modulations of capillary waves are significantly larger than the values predicted by the classical theory. Further, analysis shows that the difference in restoring force results in an inflection point while the phase velocity changes from gravity waves region to capillary waves region, and this results in the capillary waves being able to resonate with gravity waves when the phase velocity of the gravity waves is equal to the group velocity of the capillary waves. Consequently, we propose a coupling modulation model in which the current modulates the capillary wave indirectly by modulating the resonant gravity waves, and the modulation of the former is approximated by that of the latter. This model very effectively explains the results discovered in our experiments. Further, based on Bragg scattering theory and this coupling modulation model, we simulate the modulation of normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of typical internal waves and show that the high-frequency bands are superior to the low-frequency bands because of their greater modulation of NRCS and better radiometric resolution. This result provides new support for choice of radar band for observation of wave-current modulation oceanic phenomena such as internal waves, fronts, and shears.

  13. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

  14. Experimental Update of the Overtopping Model Used for the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parmeggiani, Stefano; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Friis-Madsen, Erik

    2013-01-01

    An overtopping model specifically suited for Wave Dragon is needed in order to improve the reliability of its performance estimates. The model shall be comprehensive of all relevant physical processes that affect overtopping and flexible to adapt to any local conditions and device configuration....... An experimental investigation is carried out to update an existing formulation suited for 2D draft-limited, low-crested structures, in order to include the effects on the overtopping flow of the wave steepness, the 3D geometry of Wave Dragon, the wing reflectors, the device motions and the non-rigid connection...... of which can be measured in real-time. Instead of using new fitting coefficients, this approach allows a broader applicability of the model beyond the Wave Dragon case, to any overtopping WEC or structure within the range of tested conditions. Predictions reliability of overtopping over Wave Dragon...

  15. Distributed predictive control of spiral wave in cardiac excitable media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng-Ning, Gan; Xin-Ming, Cheng

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we propose the distributed predictive control strategies of spiral wave in cardiac excitable media. The modified FitzHugh–Nagumo model was used to express the cardiac excitable media approximately. Based on the control-Lyapunov theory, we obtained the distributed control equation, which consists of a positive control-Lyapunov function and a positive cost function. Using the equation, we investigate two kinds of robust control strategies: the time-dependent distributed control strategy and the space-time dependent distributed control strategy. The feasibility of the strategies was demonstrated via an illustrative example, in which the spiral wave was prevented to occur, and the possibility for inducing ventricular fibrillation was eliminated. The strategies are helpful in designing various cardiac devices. Since the second strategy is more efficient and robust than the first one, and the response time in the second strategy is far less than that in the first one, the former is suitable for the quick-response control systems. In addition, our spatiotemporal control strategies, especially the second strategy, can be applied to other cardiac models, even to other reaction-diffusion systems. (general)

  16. Detailed modeling of mountain wave PSCs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Fueglistaler

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs play a key role in polar ozone depletion. In the Arctic, PSCs can occur on the mesoscale due to orographically induced gravity waves. Here we present a detailed study of a mountain wave PSC event on 25-27 January 2000 over Scandinavia. The mountain wave PSCs were intensively observed by in-situ and remote-sensing techniques during the second phase of the SOLVE/THESEO-2000 Arctic campaign. We use these excellent data of PSC observations on 3 successive days to analyze the PSCs and to perform a detailed comparison with modeled clouds. We simulated the 3-dimensional PSC structure on all 3 days with a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model and a microphysical box model (using best available nucleation rates for ice and nitric acid trihydrate particles. We show that the combined mesoscale/microphysical model is capable of reproducing the PSC measurements within the uncertainty of data interpretation with respect to spatial dimensions, temporal development and microphysical properties, without manipulating temperatures or using other tuning parameters. In contrast, microphysical modeling based upon coarser scale global NWP data, e.g. current ECMWF analysis data, cannot reproduce observations, in particular the occurrence of ice and nitric acid trihydrate clouds. Combined mesoscale/microphysical modeling may be used for detailed a posteriori PSC analysis and for future Arctic campaign flight and mission planning. The fact that remote sensing alone cannot further constrain model results due to uncertainities in the interpretation of measurements, underlines the need for synchronous in-situ PSC observations in campaigns.

  17. Extreme wave and wind response predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Olsen, Anders S.; Mansour, Alaa E.

    2011-01-01

    codes and the short duration of the time domain simulations needed (typically 60–300s to cover the hydro- and aerodynamic memory effects in the response) the calculation of the mean out-crossing rates of a given response is fast. Thus non-linear effects can be included. Furthermore, the FORM analysis...... also identifies the most probable wave episodes leading to given responses.Because of the linearization of the failure surface in the FORM procedure the results are only asymptotically exact and thus MCS often also needs to be performed. In the present paper a scaling property inherent in the FORM...

  18. DIOPS: A PC-Based Wave, Tide and Surf Prediction System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Allard, Richard; Dykes, James; Kaihatu, James; Wakeham, Dean

    2005-01-01

    .... Regional and coastal wave predictions are made by the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) wave module that is typically initialized by offshore directional wave spectra from the Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanography Center (FNMOC...

  19. Model wave functions for the deuteron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Certov, A.; Mathelitsch, L.; Moravcsik, M.J.

    1987-01-01

    Model wave functions are constructed for the deuteron to facilitate the unambiguous exploration of dependencies on the percentage D state and on the small-, medium-, and large-distance parts of the deuteron wave function. The wave functions are constrained by those deuteron properties which are accurately known experimentally, and are in an analytic form which is easily integrable in expressions usually encountered in the use of such wave functions

  20. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first-passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on slender members of offshore structures is described. The wave elevation of the sea state is modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  1. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1985-01-01

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on stender members of offshore structures is described . The wave elevation of the sea stateis modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  2. Prediction of regular wave loads on a fixed offshore oscillating water column-wave energy converter using CFD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Elhanafi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, hydrodynamic wave loads on an offshore stationary–floating oscillating water column (OWC are investigated via a 2D and 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD modeling based on the RANS equations and the VOF surface capturing scheme. The CFD model is validated against previous experiments for nonlinear regular wave interactions with a surface-piercing stationary barge. Following the validation stage, the numerical model is modified to consider the pneumatic damping effect, and an extensive campaign of numerical tests is carried out to study the wave–OWC interactions for different wave periods, wave heights and pneumatic damping factors. It is found that the horizontal wave force is usually larger than the vertical one. Also, there a direct relationship between the pneumatic and hydrodynamic vertical forces with a maximum vertical force almost at the device natural frequency, whereas the pneumatic damping has a little effect on the horizontal force. Additionally, simulating the turbine damping with an orifice plate induces higher vertical loads than utilizing a slot opening. Furthermore, 3D modeling significantly escalates and declines the predicted hydrodynamic vertical and horizontal wave loads, respectively.

  3. Monitoring and modeling of ultrasonic wave propagation in crystallizing mixtures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, T.; Challis, R. E.; Tebbutt, J. S.

    2002-05-01

    The utility of ultrasonic compression wave techniques for monitoring crystallization processes is investigated in a study of the seeded crystallization of copper II sulfate pentahydrate from aqueous solution. Simple models are applied to predict crystal yield, crystal size distribution and the changing nature of the continuous phase. A scattering model is used to predict the ultrasonic attenuation as crystallization proceeds. Experiments confirm that modeled attenuation is in agreement with measured results.

  4. Wave model downscaling for coastal applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valchev, Nikolay; Davidan, Georgi; Trifonova, Ekaterina; Andreeva, Nataliya

    2010-05-01

    Downscaling is a suitable technique for obtaining high-resolution estimates from relatively coarse-resolution global models. Dynamical and statistical downscaling has been applied to the multidecadal simulations of ocean waves. Even as large-scale variability might be plausibly estimated from these simulations, their value for the small scale applications such as design of coastal protection structures and coastal risk assessment is limited due to their relatively coarse spatial and temporal resolutions. Another advantage of the high resolution wave modeling is that it accounts for shallow water effects. Therefore, it can be used for both wave forecasting at specific coastal locations and engineering applications that require knowledge about extreme wave statistics at or near the coastal facilities. In the present study downscaling is applied to both ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis of atmospheric pressure over the Black Sea with 2.5 degrees spatial resolution. A simplified regional atmospheric model is employed for calculation of the surface wind field at 0.5 degrees resolution that serves as forcing for the wave models. Further, a high-resolution nested WAM/SWAN wave model suite of nested wave models is applied for spatial downscaling. It aims at resolving the wave conditions in a limited area at the close proximity to the shore. The pilot site is located in the northern part the Bulgarian Black Sea shore. The system involves the WAM wave model adapted for basin scale simulation at 0.5 degrees spatial resolution. The WAM output for significant wave height, mean wave period and mean angle of wave approach is used in terms of external boundary conditions for the SWAN wave model, which is set up for the western Black Sea shelf at 4km resolution. The same model set up on about 400m resolution is nested to the first SWAN run. In this case the SWAN 2D spectral output provides boundary conditions for the high-resolution model run. The models are implemented for a

  5. Modelling of Resonantly Forced Density Waves in Dense Planetary Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, M.; Schmidt, J.; Salo, H.

    2014-04-01

    Density wave theory, originally proposed to explain the spiral structure of galactic disks, has been applied to explain parts of the complex sub-structure in Saturn's rings, such as the wavetrains excited at the inner Lindblad resonances (ILR) of various satellites. The linear theory for the excitation and damping of density waves in Saturn's rings is fairly well developed (e.g. Goldreich & Tremaine [1979]; Shu [1984]). However, it fails to describe certain aspects of the observed waves. The non-applicability of the linear theory is already indicated by the "cusplike" shape of many of the observed wave profiles. This is a typical nonlinear feature which is also present in overstability wavetrains (Schmidt & Salo [2003]; Latter & Ogilvie [2010]). In particular, it turns out that the detailed damping mechanism, as well as the role of different nonlinear effects on the propagation of density waves remain intransparent. First attemps are being made to investigate the excitation and propagation of nonlinear density waves within a hydrodynamical formalism, which is also the natural formalism for describing linear density waves. A simple weakly nonlinear model, derived from a multiple-scale expansion of the hydrodynamic equations, is presented. This model describes the damping of "free" spiral density waves in a vertically integrated fluid disk with density dependent transport coefficients, where the effects of the hydrodynamic nonlinearities are included. The model predicts that density waves are linearly unstable in a ring region where the conditions for viscous overstability are met, which translates to a steep dependence of the shear viscosity with respect to the disk's surface density. The possibility that this dependence could lead to a growth of density waves with increasing distance from the resonance, was already mentioned in Goldreich & Tremaine [1978]. Sufficiently far away from the ILR, the surface density perturbation caused by the wave, is predicted to

  6. Model-based internal wave processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candy, J.V.; Chambers, D.H.

    1995-06-09

    A model-based approach is proposed to solve the oceanic internal wave signal processing problem that is based on state-space representations of the normal-mode vertical velocity and plane wave horizontal velocity propagation models. It is shown that these representations can be utilized to spatially propagate the modal (dept) vertical velocity functions given the basic parameters (wave numbers, Brunt-Vaisala frequency profile etc.) developed from the solution of the associated boundary value problem as well as the horizontal velocity components. Based on this framework, investigations are made of model-based solutions to the signal enhancement problem for internal waves.

  7. On Validation of Directional Wave Predictions: Review and Discussion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rogers, W. E; Wang, David W

    2006-01-01

    This report consists of supplementary materials for an article, accepted for publication in the "Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology," dealing with directional wave model validation by the same authors...

  8. Extreme Wave Analysis by Integrating Model and Wave Buoy Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Dentale

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the extreme values of significant wave height (HS, generally described by the HS return period TR function HS(TR and by its confidence intervals, is a necessity in many branches of coastal science and engineering. The availability of indirect wave data generated by global and regional wind and wave model chains have brought radical changes to the estimation procedures of such probability distribution—weather and wave modeling systems are routinely run all over the world, and HS time series for each grid point are produced and published after assimilation (analysis of the ground truth. However, while the sources of such indirect data are numerous, and generally of good quality, many aspects of their procedures are hidden to the users, who cannot evaluate the reliability and the limits of the HS(TR deriving from such data. In order to provide a simple engineering tool to evaluate the probability of extreme sea-states as well as the quality of such estimates, we propose here a procedure based on integrating HS time series generated by model chains with those recorded by wave buoys in the same area.

  9. Modeling storm waves; Modeliser les houles de tempete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch

    1999-07-01

    Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

  10. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety

  11. Opdriftsbaserede modeller for Wave Star

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kramer, Morten

    Formålet med dette skrift er at få en forhåndsvurdering af mulige effektforøgelser for Wave Star ved anvendelse af aktiv akkumulatordrift. Disse vurderinger baseres på simuleringsmodeller for driften af Wave Star i uregelmæssige bølger. Modellen er udarbejdet i programmeringssproget Delphi og er en...

  12. Radio wave propagation and parabolic equation modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Apaydin, Gokhan

    2018-01-01

    A thorough understanding of electromagnetic wave propagation is fundamental to the development of sophisticated communication and detection technologies. The powerful numerical methods described in this book represent a major step forward in our ability to accurately model electromagnetic wave propagation in order to establish and maintain reliable communication links, to detect targets in radar systems, and to maintain robust mobile phone and broadcasting networks. The first new book on guided wave propagation modeling and simulation to appear in nearly two decades, Radio Wave Propagation and Parabolic Equation Modeling addresses the fundamentals of electromagnetic wave propagation generally, with a specific focus on radio wave propagation through various media. The authors explore an array of new applications, and detail various v rtual electromagnetic tools for solving several frequent electromagnetic propagation problems. All of the methods described are presented within the context of real-world scenari...

  13. Porous models for wave-seabed interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeng, Dong-Sheng [Shanghai Jiaotong Univ., SH (China)

    2013-02-01

    Detailed discussion about the phenomenon of wave-seabed interactions. Novel models for wave-induced seabed response. Intensive theoretical derivations for wave-seabed interactions. Practical examples for engineering applications. ''Porous Models for Wave-seabed Interactions'' discusses the Phenomenon of wave-seabed interactions, which is a vital issue for coastal and geotechnical engineers involved in the design of foundations for marine structures such as pipelines, breakwaters, platforms, etc. The most important sections of this book will be the fully detailed theoretical models of wave-seabed interaction problem, which are particularly useful for postgraduate students and junior researchers entering the discipline of marine geotechnics and offshore engineering. This book also converts the research outcomes of theoretical studies to engineering applications that will provide front-line engineers with practical and effective tools in the assessment of seabed instability in engineering design.

  14. Computer modeling of inelastic wave propagation in porous rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheney, J.A.; Schatz, J.F.; Snell, C.

    1979-01-01

    Computer modeling of wave propagation in porous rock has several important applications. Among them are prediction of fragmentation and permeability changes to be caused by chemical explosions used for in situ resource recovery, and the understanding of nuclear explosion effects such as seismic wave generation, containment, and site hardness. Of interest in all these applications are the distance from the source to which inelastic effects persist and the amount of porosity change within the inelastic region. In order to study phenomena related to these applications, the Cam Clay family of models developed at Cambridge University was used to develop a similar model that is applicable to wave propagation in porous rock. That model was incorporated into a finite-difference wave propagation computer code SOC. 10 figures, 1 table

  15. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  16. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  17. Experimental Update of the Overtopping Model Used for the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Friis-Madsen

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available An overtopping model specifically suited for Wave Dragon is needed in order to improve the reliability of its performance estimates. The model shall be comprehensive of all relevant physical processes that affect overtopping and flexible to adapt to any local conditions and device configuration. An experimental investigation is carried out to update an existing formulation suited for 2D draft-limited, low-crested structures, in order to include the effects on the overtopping flow of the wave steepness, the 3D geometry of Wave Dragon, the wing reflectors, the device motions and the non-rigid connection between platform and reflectors. The study is carried out in four phases, each of them specifically targeted at quantifying one of these effects through a sensitivity analysis and at modeling it through custom-made parameters. These are depending on features of the wave or the device configuration, all of which can be measured in real-time. Instead of using new fitting coefficients, this approach allows a broader applicability of the model beyond the Wave Dragon case, to any overtopping WEC or structure within the range of tested conditions. Predictions reliability of overtopping over Wave Dragon increased, as the updated model allows improved accuracy and precision respect to the former version.

  18. Qualitative Resting Coronary Pressure Wave Form Analysis to Predict Fractional Flow Reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumura, Mitsuaki; Maehara, Akiko; Johnson, Nils P; Fearon, William F; De Bruyne, Bernard; Oldroyd, Keith G; Pijls, Nico H J; Jenkins, Paul; Ali, Ziad A; Mintz, Gary S; Stone, Gregg W; Jeremias, Allen

    2018-03-27

    To evaluate the predictability of resting distal coronary pressure wave forms for fractional flow reserve (FFR). Resting coronary wave forms were qualitatively evaluated for the presence of (i) dicrotic notch; (ii) diastolic dipping; and (iii) ventricularization. In a development cohort (n=88) a scoring system was developed that was then applied to a validation cohort (n=428) using a multivariable linear regression model to predict FFR and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) to predict FFR ≤0.8. In the development cohort, all 3 qualitative parameters were independent predictors of FFR. However, in a multivariable linear regression model in the validation cohort, qualitative wave form analysis did not further improve the ability of resting distal coronary to aortic pressure ratio (Pd/Pa) (p=0.80) or instantaneous wave-free ratio (iFR) (p=0.26) to predict FFR. Using ROC, the area under the curve of resting Pd/Pa (0.86 versus 0.86, P=0.08) and iFR (0.86 versus 0.86, P=0.26) did not improve by adding qualitative analysis. Qualitative coronary wave form analysis showed moderate classification agreement in predicting FFR but did not add substantially to the resting pressure gradients Pd/Pa and iFR; however, when discrepancies between quantitative and qualitative analyses are observed, artifact or pressure drift should be considered.

  19. Directional wave measurements and modelling

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anand, N.M.; Nayak, B.U.; Bhat, S.S.; SanilKumar, V.

    Some of the results obtained from analysis of the monsoon directional wave data measured over 4 years in shallow waters off the west coast of India are presented. The directional spectrum computed from the time series data seems to indicate...

  20. Traveling waves in an optimal velocity model of freeway traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Peter; Woods, Andrew

    2001-03-01

    Car-following models provide both a tool to describe traffic flow and algorithms for autonomous cruise control systems. Recently developed optimal velocity models contain a relaxation term that assigns a desirable speed to each headway and a response time over which drivers adjust to optimal velocity conditions. These models predict traffic breakdown phenomena analogous to real traffic instabilities. In order to deepen our understanding of these models, in this paper, we examine the transition from a linear stable stream of cars of one headway into a linear stable stream of a second headway. Numerical results of the governing equations identify a range of transition phenomena, including monotonic and oscillating travelling waves and a time- dependent dispersive adjustment wave. However, for certain conditions, we find that the adjustment takes the form of a nonlinear traveling wave from the upstream headway to a third, intermediate headway, followed by either another traveling wave or a dispersive wave further downstream matching the downstream headway. This intermediate value of the headway is selected such that the nonlinear traveling wave is the fastest stable traveling wave which is observed to develop in the numerical calculations. The development of these nonlinear waves, connecting linear stable flows of two different headways, is somewhat reminiscent of stop-start waves in congested flow on freeways. The different types of adjustments are classified in a phase diagram depending on the upstream and downstream headway and the response time of the model. The results have profound consequences for autonomous cruise control systems. For an autocade of both identical and different vehicles, the control system itself may trigger formations of nonlinear, steep wave transitions. Further information is available [Y. Sugiyama, Traffic and Granular Flow (World Scientific, Singapore, 1995), p. 137].

  1. Modeling of Mud-Wave Interaction: Mud-Induced Wave Transport & Wave-Induced Mud Transport

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Winterwerp, Johan C

    2007-01-01

    .... Also a new rheological model has been proposed to describe liquefaction of soft mud by waves, and the subsequent strength recovery after the passage of the waves. A scheme is presented on how to implement these formulations in Delft3D.

  2. Hybrid Modelling of a Traveling Wave Piezoelectric Motor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    El, Ghouti N.

    a theoretical model is derived. Since the dynamic characteristics of the real motor are difficult to capture in an analytical model, and the parameters of the motor are time varying and highly nonlinear, then some assumptions are required in order to simplify the modeling task and thus provide a suitable model......This thesis considers the modeling of the traveling wave piezoelectric motor (PEM). The rotary traveling wave ultrasonic motor "Shinsei type USR60" is the case study considered in this work. The traveling wave PEM has excellent performance and many useful features such as high holding torque, high....... Despite many attempts a lumped motor model of the PEM is unavailable so far. The dynamical characteristics of the PEM are complicated, highly nonlinear, and the motor parameters are time varying due to temperature rise and changes in motor drive operating conditions. Therefore it is difficult to predict...

  3. Gravitational waves in hybrid quintessential inflationary models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sa, Paulo M [Departamento de Fisica, Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro (Portugal); Henriques, Alfredo B, E-mail: pmsa@ualg.pt, E-mail: alfredo.henriques@ist.utl.pt [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofisica - CENTRA and Departamento de Fisica, Instituto Superior Tecnico, UTL, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2011-09-22

    The generation of primordial gravitational waves is investigated within the hybrid quintessential inflationary model. Using the method of continuous Bogoliubov coefficients, we calculate the full gravitational-wave energy spectrum. The post-inflationary kination period, characteristic of quintessential inflationary models, leaves a clear signature on the spectrum, namely, a sharp rise of the gravitational-wave spectral energy density {Omega}{sub GW} at high frequencies. For appropriate values of the parameters of the model, {Omega}{sub GW} can be as high as 10{sup -12} in the MHz-GHz range of frequencies.

  4. Gravitational waves in hybrid quintessential inflationary models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sa, Paulo M; Henriques, Alfredo B

    2011-01-01

    The generation of primordial gravitational waves is investigated within the hybrid quintessential inflationary model. Using the method of continuous Bogoliubov coefficients, we calculate the full gravitational-wave energy spectrum. The post-inflationary kination period, characteristic of quintessential inflationary models, leaves a clear signature on the spectrum, namely, a sharp rise of the gravitational-wave spectral energy density Ω GW at high frequencies. For appropriate values of the parameters of the model, Ω GW can be as high as 10 -12 in the MHz-GHz range of frequencies.

  5. Magnetospheric pulsations: Models and observations of compressional waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Xiaoming.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of the dissertation models ultralow frequency (ULF) waves in a simplified geometry in order to understand the physics of the mode coupling between the compressional and shear Alfven waves in an inhomogeneous magnetized plasma. Wave mode coupling occurs when a field line resonant frequency (defined by the shear Alfven mode) matches the global mode frequency (defined by the compressional mode). Large wave amplitudes occur near the resonant field line. Although the wave amplitude of the global mode is small away from resonant field lines, significant wave energy is stored in the wave mode due to its large scale nature. It serves as a reservoir to continuously feed energy to resonant field lines. This mechanism may explain why some field line resonances can last for times longer than that predicted from the ionospheric Joule dissipation. A nonmonotonic Alfven velocity divides the magnetosphere into two or more cavities by the local maxima of the Alfven velocity. The global mode is typically localized in one of the cavities except at some preferred frequencies, the global mode can extend through more than one cavity. This may explain ULF wave excitations in the low latitude magnetosphere. The second part of the dissertation is devoted to study compressional waves in the outer magnetosphere using magnetic field and plasma data. Statistical information on the distribution of compressional Pc 5 waves in the outer magnetosphere is obtained. Large amplitude, long period compressional Pc 5 pulsations are found very common near the magnetic equator. They are polarized mainly in a meridian plane with comparable compressional and transverse amplitudes. Close correlation between compressional wave amplitude and plasma β is also found. Several case studies show that compressional waves are quenched in the region where β < 1

  6. Travelling Waves in Hybrid Chemotaxis Models

    KAUST Repository

    Franz, Benjamin

    2013-12-18

    Hybrid models of chemotaxis combine agent-based models of cells with partial differential equation models of extracellular chemical signals. In this paper, travelling wave properties of hybrid models of bacterial chemotaxis are investigated. Bacteria are modelled using an agent-based (individual-based) approach with internal dynamics describing signal transduction. In addition to the chemotactic behaviour of the bacteria, the individual-based model also includes cell proliferation and death. Cells consume the extracellular nutrient field (chemoattractant), which is modelled using a partial differential equation. Mesoscopic and macroscopic equations representing the behaviour of the hybrid model are derived and the existence of travelling wave solutions for these models is established. It is shown that cell proliferation is necessary for the existence of non-transient (stationary) travelling waves in hybrid models. Additionally, a numerical comparison between the wave speeds of the continuum models and the hybrid models shows good agreement in the case of weak chemotaxis and qualitative agreement for the strong chemotaxis case. In the case of slow cell adaptation, we detect oscillating behaviour of the wave, which cannot be explained by mean-field approximations. © 2013 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  7. TE Wave Measurement and Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Sikora, John P; Sonnad, Kiran G; Alesini, David; De Santis, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    In the TE wave method, microwaves are coupled into the beam-pipe and the effect of the electron cloud on these microwaves is measured. An electron cloud (EC) density can then be calculated from this measurement. There are two analysis methods currently in use. The first treats the microwaves as being transmitted from one point to another in the accelerator. The second more recent method, treats the beam-pipe as a resonant cavity. This paper will summarize the reasons for adopting the resonant TE wave analysis as well as give examples from CESRTA and DA{\\Phi}NE of resonant beam-pipe. The results of bead-pull bench measurements will show some possible standing wave patterns, including a cutoff mode (evanescent) where the field decreases exponentially with distance from the drive point. We will outline other recent developments in the TE wave method including VORPAL simulations of microwave resonances, as well as the simulation of transmission in the presence of both an electron cloud and magnetic fields.

  8. Prediction of Vertical-Plane Wave Loading and Ship Responses in High Seas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Z.; Xia, J.; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2000-01-01

    The non-linearities in wave- and slamming-induced rigid-body motions and structural responses of ships such as heave, pitch and vertical bending moments are consistently investigated based on a rational time-domain strip method. A hydrodynamic model for predicting sectional green water force is a...

  9. Hydraulic Model Tests on Modified Wave Dragon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tue; Lynggaard, Jakob

    A floating model of the Wave Dragon (WD) was built in autumn 1998 by the Danish Maritime Institute in scale 1:50, see Sørensen and Friis-Madsen (1999) for reference. This model was subjected to a series of model tests and subsequent modifications at Aalborg University and in the following...... are found in Hald and Lynggaard (2001). Model tests and reconstruction are carried out during the phase 3 project: ”Wave Dragon. Reconstruction of an existing model in scale 1:50 and sequentiel tests of changes to the model geometry and mass distribution parameters” sponsored by the Danish Energy Agency...

  10. Source modelling at the dawn of gravitational-wave astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerosa, Davide

    2016-09-01

    The age of gravitational-wave astronomy has begun. Gravitational waves are propagating spacetime perturbations ("ripples in the fabric of space-time") predicted by Einstein's theory of General Relativity. These signals propagate at the speed of light and are generated by powerful astrophysical events, such as the merger of two black holes and supernova explosions. The first detection of gravitational waves was performed in 2015 with the LIGO interferometers. This constitutes a tremendous breakthrough in fundamental physics and astronomy: it is not only the first direct detection of such elusive signals, but also the first irrefutable observation of a black-hole binary system. The future of gravitational-wave astronomy is bright and loud: the LIGO experiments will soon be joined by a network of ground-based interferometers; the space mission eLISA has now been fully approved by the European Space Agency with a proof-of-concept mission called LISA Pathfinder launched in 2015. Gravitational-wave observations will provide unprecedented tests of gravity as well as a qualitatively new window on the Universe. Careful theoretical modelling of the astrophysical sources of gravitational-waves is crucial to maximize the scientific outcome of the detectors. In this Thesis, we present several advances on gravitational-wave source modelling, studying in particular: (i) the precessional dynamics of spinning black-hole binaries; (ii) the astrophysical consequences of black-hole recoils; and (iii) the formation of compact objects in the framework of scalar-tensor theories of gravity. All these phenomena are deeply characterized by a continuous interplay between General Relativity and astrophysics: despite being a truly relativistic messenger, gravitational waves encode details of the astrophysical formation and evolution processes of their sources. We work out signatures and predictions to extract such information from current and future observations. At the dawn of a revolutionary

  11. Pediatric extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: Predicting successful outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAdams, Sean; Shukla, Aseem R

    2010-10-01

    Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) is currently a first-line procedure of most upper urinary tract stones ionizing radiation, perhaps utilizing advancements in ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. This report provides a review of the current literature evaluating the patient attributes and stone factors that may be predictive of successful ESWL outcomes along with reviewing the role of pre-operative imaging and considerations for patient safety.

  12. A Critical Analysis and Validation of the Accuracy of Wave Overtopping Prediction Formulae for OWECs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Gallach-Sánchez

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of wave energy devices is growing in recent years. One type of device is the overtopping wave energy converter (OWEC, for which the knowledge of the wave overtopping rates is a basic and crucial aspect in their design. In particular, the most interesting range to study is for OWECs with steep slopes to vertical walls, and with very small freeboards and zero freeboards where the overtopping rate is maximized, and which can be generalized as steep low-crested structures. Recently, wave overtopping prediction formulae have been published for this type of structures, although their accuracy has not been fully assessed, as the overtopping data available in this range is scarce. We performed a critical analysis of the overtopping prediction formulae for steep low-crested structures and the validation of the accuracy of these formulae, based on new overtopping data for steep low-crested structures obtained at Ghent University. This paper summarizes the existing knowledge about average wave overtopping, describes the physical model tests performed, analyses the results and compares them to existing prediction formulae. The new dataset extends the wave overtopping data towards vertical walls and zero freeboard structures. In general, the new dataset validated the more recent overtopping formulae focused on steep slopes with small freeboards, although the formulae are underpredicting the average overtopping rates for very small and zero relative crest freeboards.

  13. A Blast Wave Model With Viscous Corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Fries, R. J.

    2017-04-01

    Hadronic observables in the final stage of heavy ion collision can be described well by fluid dynamics or blast wave parameterizations. We improve existing blast wave models by adding shear viscous corrections to the particle distributions in the Navier-Stokes approximation. The specific shear viscosity η/s of a hadron gas at the freeze-out temperature is a new parameter in this model. We extract the blast wave parameters with viscous corrections from experimental data which leads to constraints on the specific shear viscosity at kinetic freeze-out. Preliminary results show η/s is rather small.

  14. A Blast Wave Model With Viscous Corrections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Z; Fries, R J

    2017-01-01

    Hadronic observables in the final stage of heavy ion collision can be described well by fluid dynamics or blast wave parameterizations. We improve existing blast wave models by adding shear viscous corrections to the particle distributions in the Navier-Stokes approximation. The specific shear viscosity η/s of a hadron gas at the freeze-out temperature is a new parameter in this model. We extract the blast wave parameters with viscous corrections from experimental data which leads to constraints on the specific shear viscosity at kinetic freeze-out. Preliminary results show η/s is rather small. (paper)

  15. A wave model for dwarf novae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sparks, W.M.; Kutter, G.S.

    1980-01-01

    The rapid coherent oscillation during a dwarf nova outburst is attributed to an accretion-driven wave going around the white dwarf component of the binary system. The increase and decrease in the period of this oscillation is due to the change in the velocity of the wave as it is first being driven and then damped. Qualitatively, a large number of observations can be explained with such a model. The beginnings of a mathematical representation of this model are developed. (orig.)

  16. Compound waves in a higher order nonlinear model of thermoviscous fluids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønne Rasmussen, Anders; Sørensen, Mads Peter; Gaididei, Yuri B.

    2016-01-01

    A generalized traveling wave ansatz is used to investigate compound shock waves in a higher order nonlinear model of a thermoviscous fluid. The fluid velocity potential is written as a traveling wave plus a linear function of space and time. The latter offers the possibility of predicting...

  17. Prediction of ion-exchange column breakthrough curves by constant-pattern wave approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, I-Hsien; Kuan, Yu-Chung; Chern, Jia-Ming

    2008-03-21

    The release of heavy metals from industrial wastewaters represents one of major threats to environment. Compared with chemical precipitation method, fixed-bed ion-exchange process can effectively remove heavy metals from wastewaters and generate no hazardous sludge. In order to design and operate fixed-bed ion-exchange processes successfully, it is very important to understand the column dynamics. In this study, the column experiments for Cu2+/H+, Zn2+/H+, and Cd2+/H+ systems using Amberlite IR-120 were performed to measure the breakthrough curves under varying operating conditions. The experimental results showed that total cation concentration in the mobile-phase played a key role on the breakthrough curves; a higher feed concentration resulted in an earlier breakthrough. Furthermore, the column dynamics was also predicted by self-sharpening and constant-pattern wave models. The self-sharpening wave model assuming local ion-exchange equilibrium could provide a simple and quick estimation for the breakthrough volume, but the predicted breakthrough curves did not match the experimental data very well. On the contrary, the constant-pattern wave model using a constant driving force model for finite ion-exchange rate provided a better fit to the experimental data. The obtained liquid-phase mass transfer coefficient was correlated to the flow velocity and other operating parameters; the breakthrough curves under varying operating conditions could thus be predicted by the constant-pattern wave model using the correlation.

  18. -Advanced Models for Tsunami and Rogue Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Pravica

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A wavelet , that satisfies the q-advanced differential equation for , is used to model N-wave oscillations observed in tsunamis. Although q-advanced ODEs may seem nonphysical, we present an application that model tsunamis, in particular the Japanese tsunami of March 11, 2011, by utilizing a one-dimensional wave equation that is forced by . The profile is similar to tsunami models in present use. The function is a wavelet that satisfies a q-advanced harmonic oscillator equation. It is also shown that another wavelet, , matches a rogue-wave profile. This is explained in terms of a resonance wherein two small amplitude forcing waves eventually lead to a large amplitude rogue. Since wavelets are used in the detection of tsunamis and rogues, the signal-analysis performance of and is examined on actual data.

  19. Assimilation of satellite data to increase the reliability of the wave predictions in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

    2015-04-01

    In order to improve the wave predictions provided in the Black Sea by a wave modelling system based on the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) spectral model, a technique for assimilating the satellite data has been implemented and evaluated. For this purpose, an approach based on the Optimal Interpolation method has been considered and its results are discussed in the present work. As a first step, SWAN model simulations have been carried out for a 5-year interval (2004-2008). The assimilation is made in terms of the significant wave height (Hs) for each 24 hours considering data coming from 4 satellites (ERS-2, JASON-1, JASON-2, GEOSAT Follow-On). Subsequently, data provided by two other satellites (ENVISAT and TOPEX) are used for validations. To assess the improvement brought in the model predictions by the assimilation scheme, a comparison has been performed between the model results with and without assimilation. The statistical parameters evaluated are: bias, mean absolute error, RMS error, scatter index, correlation coefficient and symmetric slope. The results show that the data assimilation procedure induces a significant improvement of the statistical parameters (lower values for bias, errors and scatter index and values closer to the unity of the correlation coefficient and for the symmetric slope). It was found also that an important factor in improving the wave predictions is represented by the value of the correlation length accounted for the Hs prediction errors (Lmax). Previous studies indicate for this length a value around four degrees in the vicinity of 45 degrees latitude (which corresponds also to the basin of the Black Sea). This value was first considered in the assimilation technique. On the other hand, taking also into account the fact that in the Black Sea the wind-sea waves are dominant, lower values for the parameter Lmax were tested as well and it seems that the most appropriate value for this parameter is between three and four degrees

  20. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  1. User's Manual for the Simulating Waves Nearshore Model (SWAN)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Allard, Richard

    2002-01-01

    The Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model is a numerical wave model used to obtain realistic estimates of wave parameters in coastal areas, lakes, and estuaries from given wind, bottom, and current conditions...

  2. Assessment of multi class kinematic wave models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Wageningen-Kessels, F.L.M.; Van Lint, J.W.C.; Vuik, C.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade many multi class kinematic wave (MCKW) traffic ow models have been proposed. MCKW models introduce heterogeneity among vehicles and drivers. For example, they take into account differences in (maximum) velocities and driving style. Nevertheless, the models are macroscopic and the

  3. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  4. Coupling Hydrodynamic and Wave Propagation Codes for Modeling of Seismic Waves recorded at the SPE Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larmat, C. S.; Rougier, E.; Delorey, A.; Steedman, D. W.; Bradley, C. R.

    2016-12-01

    The goal of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is to bring empirical and theoretical advances to the problem of detection and identification of underground nuclear explosions. For this, the SPE program includes a strong modeling effort based on first principles calculations with the challenge to capture both the source and near-source processes and those taking place later in time as seismic waves propagate within complex 3D geologic environments. In this paper, we report on results of modeling that uses hydrodynamic simulation codes (Abaqus and CASH) coupled with a 3D full waveform propagation code, SPECFEM3D. For modeling the near source region, we employ a fully-coupled Euler-Lagrange (CEL) modeling capability with a new continuum-based visco-plastic fracture model for simulation of damage processes, called AZ_Frac. These capabilities produce high-fidelity models of various factors believed to be key in the generation of seismic waves: the explosion dynamics, a weak grout-filled borehole, the surrounding jointed rock, and damage creation and deformations happening around the source and the free surface. SPECFEM3D, based on the Spectral Element Method (SEM) is a direct numerical method for full wave modeling with mathematical accuracy. The coupling interface consists of a series of grid points of the SEM mesh situated inside of the hydrodynamic code's domain. Displacement time series at these points are computed using output data from CASH or Abaqus (by interpolation if needed) and fed into the time marching scheme of SPECFEM3D. We will present validation tests with the Sharpe's model and comparisons of waveforms modeled with Rg waves (2-8Hz) that were recorded up to 2 km for SPE. We especially show effects of the local topography, velocity structure and spallation. Our models predict smaller amplitudes of Rg waves for the first five SPE shots compared to pure elastic models such as Denny &Johnson (1991).

  5. Turbulent Spot Pressure Fluctuation Wave Packet Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dechant, Lawrence J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Wave packet analysis provides a connection between linear small disturbance theory and subsequent nonlinear turbulent spot flow behavior. The traditional association between linear stability analysis and nonlinear wave form is developed via the method of stationary phase whereby asymptotic (simplified) mean flow solutions are used to estimate dispersion behavior and stationary phase approximation are used to invert the associated Fourier transform. The resulting process typically requires nonlinear algebraic equations inversions that can be best performed numerically, which partially mitigates the value of the approximation as compared to a more complete, e.g. DNS or linear/nonlinear adjoint methods. To obtain a simpler, closed-form analytical result, the complete packet solution is modeled via approximate amplitude (linear convected kinematic wave initial value problem) and local sinusoidal (wave equation) expressions. Significantly, the initial value for the kinematic wave transport expression follows from a separable variable coefficient approximation to the linearized pressure fluctuation Poisson expression. The resulting amplitude solution, while approximate in nature, nonetheless, appears to mimic many of the global features, e.g. transitional flow intermittency and pressure fluctuation magnitude behavior. A low wave number wave packet models also recover meaningful auto-correlation and low frequency spectral behaviors.

  6. Wave Climate and Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    measured by R/V Lance ( black solid line) and predicted by SWAN ( black dashed line) and the ship velocity (grey solid line). (c) BFI ( black solid line) and...and potential future trends; and WAVEWATCH-III® and SWAN wave models with new physics, adapted and validated for the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas...nondimensional spectral width ν ( black dashed line). (d–i) Selected photographs from the ship show local sea ice state. Fig. 6 illustrates a

  7. A delay differential equation model of follicle waves in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panza, Nicole M; Wright, Andrew A; Selgrade, James F

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a mathematical model for hormonal regulation of the menstrual cycle which predicts the occurrence of follicle waves in normally cycling women. Several follicles of ovulatory size that develop sequentially during one menstrual cycle are referred to as follicle waves. The model consists of 13 nonlinear, delay differential equations with 51 parameters. Model simulations exhibit a unique stable periodic cycle and this menstrual cycle accurately approximates blood levels of ovarian and pituitary hormones found in the biological literature. Numerical experiments illustrate that the number of follicle waves corresponds to the number of rises in pituitary follicle stimulating hormone. Modifications of the model equations result in simulations which predict the possibility of two ovulations at different times during the same menstrual cycle and, hence, the occurrence of dizygotic twins via a phenomenon referred to as superfecundation. Sensitive parameters are identified and bifurcations in model behaviour with respect to parameter changes are discussed. Studying follicle waves may be helpful for improving female fertility and for understanding some aspects of female reproductive ageing.

  8. Between tide and wave marks: a unifying model of physical zonation on littoral shores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher E. Bird

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The effects of tides on littoral marine habitats are so ubiquitous that shorelines are commonly described as ‘intertidal’, whereas waves are considered a secondary factor that simply modifies the intertidal habitat. However mean significant wave height exceeds tidal range at many locations worldwide. Here we construct a simple sinusoidal model of coastal water level based on both tidal range and wave height. From the patterns of emergence and submergence predicted by the model, we derive four vertical shoreline benchmarks which bracket up to three novel, spatially distinct, and physically defined zones. The (1 emergent tidal zone is characterized by tidally driven emergence in air; the (2 wave zone is characterized by constant (not periodic wave wash; and the (3 submergent tidal zone is characterized by tidally driven submergence. The decoupling of tidally driven emergence and submergence made possible by wave action is a critical prediction of the model. On wave-dominated shores (wave height ≫ tidal range, all three zones are predicted to exist separately, but on tide-dominated shores (tidal range ≫ wave height the wave zone is absent and the emergent and submergent tidal zones overlap substantially, forming the traditional “intertidal zone”. We conclude by incorporating time and space in the model to illustrate variability in the physical conditions and zonation on littoral shores. The wave:tide physical zonation model is a unifying framework that can facilitate our understanding of physical conditions on littoral shores whether tropical or temperate, marine or lentic.

  9. Simple opdriftsbaserede modeller for Wave Star

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kramer, Morten

    Wave Star modellen er udarbejdet i programmeringssproget Delphi. Modellerne er en videre udarbejdelse af tidligere anvendte Excel-modeller. I forhold til Excelmodellerne udmærker de nye Dephi-modeller sig ved at beregningerne udføres mange gange hurtigere og modellerne kan håndtere lange tidsserier...

  10. Predictions for PP-wave string amplitudes from perturbative SYM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gursoy, Umut

    2003-01-01

    The role of general two-impurity multi-trace operators in the BMN correspondence is explored. Surprisingly, the anomalous dimensions of all two-impurity multi-trace BMN operators to order g 2 2 λ' are completely determined in terms of single-trace anomalous dimensions. This is due to suppression of connected field theory diagrams in the BMN limit and this fact has important implications for some string theory processes on the PP-wave background. We also make gauge theory predictions for the matrix elements of the light-cone string field theory Hamiltonian in the two string-two string and one string-three string sectors. (author)

  11. PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.

  12. Updated thermal model using simplified short-wave radiosity calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, J.A.; Goltz, S.M.

    1994-01-01

    An extension to a forest canopy thermal radiance model is described that computes the short-wave energy flux absorbed within the canopy by solving simplified radiosity equations describing flux transfers between canopy ensemble classes partitioned by vegetation layer and leaf slope. Integrated short-wave reflectance and transmittance-factors obtained from measured leaf optical properties were found to be nearly equal for the canopy studied. Short-wave view factor matrices were approximated by combining the average leaf scattering coefficient with the long-wave view factor matrices already incorporated in the model. Both the updated and original models were evaluated for a dense spruce fir forest study site in Central Maine. Canopy short-wave absorption coefficients estimated from detailed Monte Carlo ray tracing calculations were 0.60, 0.04, and 0.03 for the top, middle, and lower canopy layers corresponding to leaf area indices of 4.0, 1.05, and 0.25. The simplified radiosity technique yielded analogous absorption values of 0.55, 0.03, and 0.01. The resulting root mean square error in modeled versus measured canopy temperatures for all layers was less than 1°C with either technique. Maximum error in predicted temperature using the simplified radiosity technique was approximately 2°C during peak solar heating. (author)

  13. Updated thermal model using simplified short-wave radiosity calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, J. A.; Goltz, S. M.

    1994-02-15

    An extension to a forest canopy thermal radiance model is described that computes the short-wave energy flux absorbed within the canopy by solving simplified radiosity equations describing flux transfers between canopy ensemble classes partitioned by vegetation layer and leaf slope. Integrated short-wave reflectance and transmittance-factors obtained from measured leaf optical properties were found to be nearly equal for the canopy studied. Short-wave view factor matrices were approximated by combining the average leaf scattering coefficient with the long-wave view factor matrices already incorporated in the model. Both the updated and original models were evaluated for a dense spruce fir forest study site in Central Maine. Canopy short-wave absorption coefficients estimated from detailed Monte Carlo ray tracing calculations were 0.60, 0.04, and 0.03 for the top, middle, and lower canopy layers corresponding to leaf area indices of 4.0, 1.05, and 0.25. The simplified radiosity technique yielded analogous absorption values of 0.55, 0.03, and 0.01. The resulting root mean square error in modeled versus measured canopy temperatures for all layers was less than 1°C with either technique. Maximum error in predicted temperature using the simplified radiosity technique was approximately 2°C during peak solar heating. (author)

  14. Wave climate change, coastline response and hazard prediction in New South Wales, Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodwin, Ian D.; Verdon, Danielle; Cowell, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Considerable research effort has been directed towards understanding and the gross prediction of shoreline response to sea level rise (eg. Cowell ef a/. 2003a, b). In contrast, synoptic prediction of changes in the planform configuration of shorelines in response to changes in wind and wave climates over many decades has been limited by the lack of geohistorical data on shoreline alignment evolution and long time series of wave climate. This paper presents new data sets on monthly mean wave direction variability based on: a. Waverider buoy data; b. a reconstruction of monthly mid-shelf wave direction, 1877 to 2002 AD from historical MSLP data (Goodwin 2005); and c. a multi-decadal reconstruction of wave direction, in association with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode of climate variability, covering the past millennium. A model of coastline response to the wave climate variability is presented for northern and central New South Wales (NSW) for decadal to multi-decadal time scales, and is based on instrumental and geohistorical data. The sensitivity of the coastline position and alignment, and beach state to mean and extreme wave climate changes is demonstrated (e.g. Goodwin et al. 2006). State changes in geometric shoreline alignment rotation, sand volume (progradation/recession) for NSW and mean wave direction, are shown to be in agreement with the low-frequency change in Pacific-wide climate. Synoptic typing of climate patterns using Self Organised Mapping methods is used to downscale CSIRO GCM output for this century. The synoptic types are correlated to instrumental wave climate data and coastal behaviour. The shifts in downscaled synoptic types for 2030 and 2070 AD are then used as the basis for predicting mean wave climate changes, coastal behaviour and hazards along the NSW coastline. The associated coastal hazards relate to the definition of coastal land loss through rising sea levels and shoreline

  15. Wave propagation in the Lorenz-96 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Kekem, Dirk L.; Sterk, Alef E.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper we study the spatiotemporal properties of waves in the Lorenz-96 model and their dependence on the dimension parameter n and the forcing parameter F. For F > 0 the first bifurcation is either a supercritical Hopf or a double-Hopf bifurcation and the periodic attractor born at these bifurcations represents a traveling wave. Its spatial wave number increases linearly with n, but its period tends to a finite limit as n → ∞. For F traveling wave also grows linearly with n. For F < 0 and even n, however, a Hopf bifurcation is preceded by either one or two pitchfork bifurcations, where the number of the latter bifurcations depends on whether n has remainder 2 or 0 upon division by 4. This bifurcation sequence leads to stationary waves and their spatiotemporal properties also depend on the remainder after dividing n by 4. Finally, we explain how the double-Hopf bifurcation can generate two or more stable waves with different spatiotemporal properties that coexist for the same parameter values n and F.

  16. Wave propagation in the Lorenz-96 model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. van Kekem

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study the spatiotemporal properties of waves in the Lorenz-96 model and their dependence on the dimension parameter n and the forcing parameter F. For F > 0 the first bifurcation is either a supercritical Hopf or a double-Hopf bifurcation and the periodic attractor born at these bifurcations represents a traveling wave. Its spatial wave number increases linearly with n, but its period tends to a finite limit as n → ∞. For F < 0 and odd n, the first bifurcation is again a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, but in this case the period of the traveling wave also grows linearly with n. For F < 0 and even n, however, a Hopf bifurcation is preceded by either one or two pitchfork bifurcations, where the number of the latter bifurcations depends on whether n has remainder 2 or 0 upon division by 4. This bifurcation sequence leads to stationary waves and their spatiotemporal properties also depend on the remainder after dividing n by 4. Finally, we explain how the double-Hopf bifurcation can generate two or more stable waves with different spatiotemporal properties that coexist for the same parameter values n and F.

  17. Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, J. C.; Yudin, V.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Akmaev, R. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Unified Gravity Wave Physics (UGWP) project for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) is a NOAA collaborative effort between the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environemntal Modeling Center (EMC) and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CU-CIRES) to support upgrades and improvements of GW dynamics (resolved scales) and physics (sub-grid scales) in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)†. As envisioned the global climate, weather and space weather models of NEMS will substantially improve their predictions and forecasts with the resolution-sensitive (scale-aware) formulations planned under the UGWP framework for both orographic and non-stationary waves. In particular, the planned improvements for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of NEMS are: calibration of model physics for higher vertical and horizontal resolution and an extended vertical range of simulations, upgrades to GW schemes, including the turbulent heating and eddy mixing due to wave dissipation and breaking, and representation of the internally-generated QBO. The main priority of the UGWP project is unified parameterization of orographic and non-orographic GW effects including momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere and turbulent heating and eddies due to wave dissipation and breaking. The latter effects are not currently represented in NOAA atmosphere models. The team has tested and evaluated four candidate GW solvers integrating the selected GW schemes into the NGGPS model. Our current work and planned activity is to implement the UGWP schemes in the first available GFS/FV3 (open FV3) configuration including adapted GFDL modification for sub-grid orography in GFS. Initial global model results will be shown for the operational and research GFS configuration for spectral and FV3 dynamical cores. †http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NEMS

  18. Quantification of Wave Model Uncertainties Used for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Wave models used for site assessments are subjected to model uncertainties, which need to be quantified when using wave model results for probabilistic reliability assessments. This paper focuses on determination of wave model uncertainties. Four different wave models are considered, and validation...... data are collected from published scientific research. The bias and the root-mean-square error, as well as the scatter index, are considered for the significant wave height as well as the mean zero-crossing wave period. Based on an illustrative generic example, this paper presents how the quantified...... uncertainties can be implemented in probabilistic reliability assessments....

  19. Determination of Wave Model Uncertainties used for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Wave models used for site assessments are subject to model uncertainties, which need to be quantified when using wave model results for probabilistic reliability assessments. This paper focuses on determination of wave model uncertainties. Considered are four different wave models and validation...... data is collected from published scientific research. The bias, the root-mean-square error as well as the scatter index are considered for the significant wave height as well as the mean zero-crossing wave period. Based on an illustrative generic example it is shown how the estimated uncertainties can...... be implemented in probabilistic reliability assessments....

  20. Real time wave forecasting using wind time history and numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Pooja; Deo, M. C.; Latha, G.; Rajendran, V.

    Operational activities in the ocean like planning for structural repairs or fishing expeditions require real time prediction of waves over typical time duration of say a few hours. Such predictions can be made by using a numerical model or a time series model employing continuously recorded waves. This paper presents another option to do so and it is based on a different time series approach in which the input is in the form of preceding wind speed and wind direction observations. This would be useful for those stations where the costly wave buoys are not deployed and instead only meteorological buoys measuring wind are moored. The technique employs alternative artificial intelligence approaches of an artificial neural network (ANN), genetic programming (GP) and model tree (MT) to carry out the time series modeling of wind to obtain waves. Wind observations at four offshore sites along the east coast of India were used. For calibration purpose the wave data was generated using a numerical model. The predicted waves obtained using the proposed time series models when compared with the numerically generated waves showed good resemblance in terms of the selected error criteria. Large differences across the chosen techniques of ANN, GP, MT were not noticed. Wave hindcasting at the same time step and the predictions over shorter lead times were better than the predictions over longer lead times. The proposed method is a cost effective and convenient option when a site-specific information is desired.

  1. Abnormal Waves Modelled as Second-order Conditional Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents results for the expected second order short-crested wave conditional of a given wave crest at a specific point in time and space. The analysis is based on the second order Sharma and Dean shallow water wave theory. Numerical results showing the importance of the spectral densit...

  2. Identification of wind fields for wave modeling near Qatar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, Sashikant; Balan Sobhana, Sandeepan; Panchang, Vijay

    2016-04-01

    of the order of 50% (on average) for the entire duration. The study therefore suggests the use of a mesoscale weather forecasting model such as WRF, for deriving the wind fields for a large but marginal semi-enclosed sea where small scale phenomena dominate, and when used as forcing in the wave model, it provides wave-climate predictions with less error.

  3. Modeling of Rayleigh wave dispersion in Iberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Badal

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Phase and group velocities of 15–70 s Rayleigh waves propagating across the Iberian Peninsula have been transformed into local dispersion curves by linear inversion of travel times. The procedure permits that the waveform dispersion to be obtained as a continuous period-dependent velocity function at grid points belonging to the area probed by the waves, thus providing phase- and group-velocity contour maps for several periods within the interval of interest. The regionalization process rests on a homogeneous initial data set in which the number of observations remains almost constant for all periods of reference. Damped least-squares inversion of the local dispersion curves for shear-wave velocity structure is performed to obtain depth-dependent S-wave velocity profiles at the grid points covering the model region. The reliability of the results should improve significantly owing to the use of phase and group velocities simultaneously. On this basis, we have built horizontal depth sections that give an updated view of the seismic velocity structure of the peninsula at lithospheric and upper mantle depths (20–200 km. After averaging all the pure-path S-wave velocities previously determined at each grid point, the velocity-depth models so obtained for major tectonic units allow the comparison between the Hercynian basement and other areas of Mesozoic folding and Tertiary basins.

  4. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  5. The sinking of the El Faro: predicting real world rogue waves during Hurricane Joaquin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedele, Francesco; Lugni, Claudio; Chawla, Arun

    2017-09-11

    We present a study on the prediction of rogue waves during the 1-hour sea state of Hurricane Joaquin when the Merchant Vessel El Faro sank east of the Bahamas on October 1, 2015. High-resolution hindcast of hurricane-generated sea states and wave simulations are combined with novel probabilistic models to quantify the likelihood of rogue wave conditions. The data suggests that the El Faro vessel was drifting at an average speed of approximately 2.5 m/s prior to its sinking. As a result, we estimated that the probability that El Faro encounters a rogue wave whose crest height exceeds 14 meters while drifting over a time interval of 10 (50) minutes is ~1/400 (1/130). The largest simulated wave is generated by the constructive interference of elementary spectral components (linear dispersive focusing) enhanced by bound nonlinearities. Not surprisingly then, its characteristics are quite similar to those displayed by the Andrea, Draupner and Killard rogue waves.

  6. Sediment sorting along tidal sand waves: A comparison between field observations and theoretical predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Oyen, Tomas; Blondeaux, Paolo; Van den Eynde, Dries

    2013-07-01

    A site-by-site comparison between field observations and theoretical predictions of sediment sorting patterns along tidal sand waves is performed for ten locations in the North Sea. At each site, the observed grain size distribution along the bottom topography and the geometry of the bed forms is described in detail and the procedure used to obtain the model parameters is summarized. The model appears to accurately describe the wavelength of the observed sand waves for the majority of the locations; still providing a reliable estimate for the other sites. In addition, it is found that for seven out of the ten locations, the qualitative sorting process provided by the model agrees with the observed grain size distribution. A discussion of the site-by-site comparison is provided which, taking into account uncertainties in the field data, indicates that the model grasps the major part of the key processes controlling the phenomenon.

  7. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... signal based on a process model, coping with constraints on inputs and ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes ... section 5 presents the simulation results and section 6.

  8. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Traveling waves in a continuum model of 1D schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Anand; Kanso, Eva; Shelley, Michael

    2017-11-01

    We construct and analyze a continuum model of a 1D school of flapping swimmers. Our starting point is a delay differential equation that models the interaction between a swimmer and its upstream neighbors' wakes, which is motivated by recent experiments in the Applied Math Lab at NYU. We coarse-grain the evolution equations and derive PDEs for the swimmer density and variables describing the upstream wake. We study the equations both analytically and numerically, and find that a uniform density of swimmers destabilizes into a traveling wave. Our model makes a number of predictions about the properties of such traveling waves, and sheds light on the role of hydrodynamics in mediating the structure of swimming schools.

  10. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  11. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  12. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  13. Model for small arms fire muzzle blast wave propagation in air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Juan R.; Desai, Sachi V.

    2011-11-01

    Accurate modeling of small firearms muzzle blast wave propagation in the far field is critical to predict sound pressure levels, impulse durations and rise times, as functions of propagation distance. Such a task being relevant to a number of military applications including the determination of human response to blast noise, gunfire detection and localization, and gun suppressor design. Herein, a time domain model to predict small arms fire muzzle blast wave propagation is introduced. The model implements a Friedlander wave with finite rise time which diverges spherically from the gun muzzle. Additionally, the effects in blast wave form of thermoviscous and molecular relaxational processes, which are associated with atmospheric absorption of sound were also incorporated in the model. Atmospheric absorption of blast waves is implemented using a time domain recursive formula obtained from numerical integration of corresponding differential equations using a Crank-Nicholson finite difference scheme. Theoretical predictions from our model were compared to previously recorded real world data of muzzle blast wave signatures obtained by shooting a set different sniper weapons of varying calibers. Recordings containing gunfire acoustical signatures were taken at distances between 100 and 600 meters from the gun muzzle. Results shows that predicted blast wave slope and exponential decay agrees well with measured data. Analysis also reveals the persistency of an oscillatory phenomenon after blast overpressure in the recorded wave forms.

  14. Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Wiktorowicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

  15. Modelling and Testing of Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter Towards Full Scale Deployment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parmeggiani, Stefano

    -commercial stage in which it has proven difficult to secure the necessary funding for the deployment of a full-scale demonstrator unit. The work presented aims at easing this process, by increasing public and scientific knowledge of the device, as well as by showing the latest progress in its development. Research....... This is mainly due to the development of an updated overtopping model specifically suited to Wave Dragon, which allows greater quality to predictions of the primary energy absorption of the device compared to previous versions. At the same time an equitable approach has been described and used in the performance......, the research has also provided a deeper insight into the physics of the overtopping process by individually assessing the influence of related device configuration and wave features, which goes beyond the present application and may be used for other overtopping WECs as well. Comprehensive analysis...

  16. Pediatric extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: Predicting successful outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean McAdams

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL is currently a first-line procedure of most upper urinary tract stones <2 cm of size because of established success rates, its minimal invasiveness and long-term safety with minimal complications. Given that alternative surgical and endourological options exist for the management of stone disease and that ESWL failure often results in the need for repeat ESWL or secondary procedures, it is highly desirable to identify variables predicting successful outcomes of ESWL in the pediatric population. Despite numerous reports and growing experience, few prospective studies and guidelines for pediatric ESWL have been completed. Variation in the methods by which study parameters are measured and reported can make it difficult to compare individual studies or make definitive recommendations. There is ongoing work and a need for continuing improvement of imaging protocols in children with renal colic, with a current focus on minimizing exposure to ionizing radiation, perhaps utilizing advancements in ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. This report provides a review of the current literature evaluating the patient attributes and stone factors that may be predictive of successful ESWL outcomes along with reviewing the role of pre-operative imaging and considerations for patient safety.

  17. Falsification of Leggett's model using neutron matter waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Yuji; Sponar, Stephan; Durstberger-Rennhofer, Katharina; Badurek, Gerald; Schmitzer, Claus; Bartosik, Hannes; Klepp, Jürgen

    2012-01-01

    According to Bell's theorem, no theory based on the joint assumption of realism and locality can reproduce certain predictions of quantum mechanics. Another class of realistic models, proposed by Leggett, that demands realism but abandons reliance on locality, is predicted to be in conflict with quantum mechanics. In this paper, we report on an experimental test of a contextual realistic model analogous to the model of Leggett performed with matter waves, more precisely with neutrons. Correlation measurements of the spin-energy entangled single-particle system show violation of a Leggett-type inequality by more than 7.6 standard deviations. Our experimental data falsify the contextual realistic model and are fully in favor of quantum mechanics. (paper)

  18. Prediction of a thermodynamic wave train from the monsoon to the Arctic following extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, Vinay

    2017-04-01

    This study addresses numerical prediction of atmospheric wave trains that provide a monsoonal link to the Arctic ice melt. The monsoonal link is one of several ways that heat is conveyed to the Arctic region. This study follows a detailed observational study on thermodynamic wave trains that are initiated by extreme rain events of the northern summer south Asian monsoon. These wave trains carry large values of heat content anomalies, heat transports and convergence of flux of heat. These features seem to be important candidates for the rapid melt scenario. This present study addresses numerical simulation of the extreme rains, over India and Pakistan, and the generation of thermodynamic wave trains, simulations of large heat content anomalies, heat transports along pathways and heat flux convergences, potential vorticity and the diabatic generation of potential vorticity. We compare model based simulation of many features such as precipitation, divergence and the divergent wind with those evaluated from the reanalysis fields. We have also examined the snow and ice cover data sets during and after these events. This modeling study supports our recent observational findings on the monsoonal link to the rapid Arctic ice melt of the Canadian Arctic. This numerical modeling suggests ways to interpret some recent episodes of rapid ice melts that may require a well-coordinated field experiment among atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow cover scientists. Such a well-coordinated study would sharpen our understanding of this one component of the ice melt, i.e. the monsoonal link, which appears to be fairly robust.

  19. Application of Soft Computing Tools for Wave Prediction at Specific Locations in the Arabian Sea Using Moored Buoy Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Vimala

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge of design and operational values of significant wave heights is perhaps the single most important input needed in ocean engineering studies. Conventionally such information is obtained using classical statistical analysis and stochastic methods. As the causative variables are innumerable and underlying physics is too complicated, the results obtained from the numerical models may not always be very satisfactory. Soft computing tools like Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS may therefore be useful to predict significant wave heights in some situations. The study is aimed at forecasting of significant wave height values in real time over a period of 24hrs at certain locations in Indian seas using the models of ANN and ANFIS. The data for the work were collected by National Institute of Ocean Technology, Chennai. It was found that the predictions of wave heights can be done by both methods with equal efficiency and satisfaction.

  20. Wave modelling for the North Indian Ocean using MSMR analysed winds

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vethamony, P.; Sudheesh, K.; Rupali, S.P.; Babu, M.T.; Jayakumar, S.; Saran, A; Basu, S.K.; Kumar, R.; Sarkar, A

    prediction when NCMRWF winds blended with MSMR winds are utilised in the wave model. A comparison between buoy and TOPEX wave heights of May 2000 at 4 buoy locations provides a good match, showing the merit of using altimeter data, wherever it is difficult...

  1. Astrophysical Model Selection in Gravitational Wave Astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew R.; Cornish, Neil J.; Littenberg, Tyson B.

    2012-01-01

    Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.

  2. Conditional Stochastic Processes Applied to Wave Load Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2015-01-01

    The concept of conditional stochastic processes provides a powerful tool for evaluation and estimation of wave loads on ships and offshore structures. This article first considers conditional waves with a focus on critical wave episodes. Then the inherent uncertainty in the results is illustrated...

  3. A model to predict the sound reflection from forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wunderli, J.M.; Salomons, E.M.

    2009-01-01

    A model is presented to predict the reflection of sound at forest edges. A single tree is modelled as a vertical cylinder. For the reflection at a cylinder an analytical solution is given based on the theory of scattering of spherical waves. The entire forest is represented by a line of cylinders

  4. DIOPS: A PC-Based Wave, Tide and Surf Prediction System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Allard, Richard; Dykes, James; Kaihatu, James; Wakeham, Dean

    2005-01-01

    The Distributed Integrated Ocean Prediciton System (DIOPS) is a PC-based wave tide and surf prediction system designed to provide DoD accurate and timely surf predictions for essentially any world-wide location...

  5. Inflationary gravitational waves in collapse scheme models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariani, Mauro, E-mail: mariani@carina.fcaglp.unlp.edu.ar [Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Paseo del Bosque S/N, 1900 La Plata (Argentina); Bengochea, Gabriel R., E-mail: gabriel@iafe.uba.ar [Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), UBA-CONICET, CC 67, Suc. 28, 1428 Buenos Aires (Argentina); León, Gabriel, E-mail: gleon@df.uba.ar [Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria – Pab. I, 1428 Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2016-01-10

    The inflationary paradigm is an important cornerstone of the concordance cosmological model. However, standard inflation cannot fully address the transition from an early homogeneous and isotropic stage, to another one lacking such symmetries corresponding to our present universe. In previous works, a self-induced collapse of the wave function has been suggested as the missing ingredient of inflation. Most of the analysis regarding the collapse hypothesis has been solely focused on the characteristics of the spectrum associated to scalar perturbations, and within a semiclassical gravity framework. In this Letter, working in terms of a joint metric-matter quantization for inflation, we calculate, for the first time, the tensor power spectrum and the tensor-to-scalar ratio corresponding to the amplitude of primordial gravitational waves resulting from considering a generic self-induced collapse.

  6. Towards Predicting the Added Resistance of Slow Ships in Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amini Afshar, Mostafa

    been implemented using the Overture framework for solving partial differential equations on overset, boundary-fitted grids. This library includes support for parallel processing and a variety of direct and iterative system solvers. The non-linear water water wave problem is linearised about two base......-surface boundary conditions. The field continuity equation has been discretised by a centered fourth-order finite difference scheme which also includes ghost layers at the boundaries. For the zero-speed hydrodynamic problem, the same centered scheme can be utilised to calculate the free-surface derivatives...... can be applied to the solution after each time step. The filtering scheme can be used with the centered finite difference scheme. Both of these strategies introduce numerical diffusion into the model to ensure the stability in the case of the forward-speed hydrodynamic problems. The developed...

  7. Submillimetre wave imaging and security: imaging performance and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appleby, R.; Ferguson, S.

    2016-10-01

    Within the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), CONSORTIS (Concealed Object Stand-Off Real-Time Imaging for Security) has designed and is fabricating a stand-off system operating at sub-millimetre wave frequencies for the detection of objects concealed on people. This system scans people as they walk by the sensor. This paper presents the top level system design which brings together both passive and active sensors to provide good performance. The passive system operates in two bands between 100 and 600GHz and is based on a cryogen free cooled focal plane array sensor whilst the active system is a solid-state 340GHz radar. A modified version of OpenFX was used for modelling the passive system. This model was recently modified to include realistic location-specific skin temperature and to accept animated characters wearing up to three layers of clothing that move dynamically, such as those typically found in cinematography. Targets under clothing have been modelled and the performance simulated. The strengths and weaknesses of this modelling approach are discussed.

  8. Renormalization group approach to a p-wave superconducting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Continentino, Mucio A.; Deus, Fernanda; Caldas, Heron

    2014-01-01

    We present in this work an exact renormalization group (RG) treatment of a one-dimensional p-wave superconductor. The model proposed by Kitaev consists of a chain of spinless fermions with a p-wave gap. It is a paradigmatic model of great actual interest since it presents a weak pairing superconducting phase that has Majorana fermions at the ends of the chain. Those are predicted to be useful for quantum computation. The RG allows to obtain the phase diagram of the model and to study the quantum phase transition from the weak to the strong pairing phase. It yields the attractors of these phases and the critical exponents of the weak to strong pairing transition. We show that the weak pairing phase of the model is governed by a chaotic attractor being non-trivial from both its topological and RG properties. In the strong pairing phase the RG flow is towards a conventional strong coupling fixed point. Finally, we propose an alternative way for obtaining p-wave superconductivity in a one-dimensional system without spin–orbit interaction.

  9. Applicability of WaveWatch-III wave model to fatigue assessment of offshore floating structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zou, T.; Kaminski, M.L.

    2016-01-01

    In design and operation of floating offshore structures, one has to avoid fatigue failures caused by action of ocean waves. The aim of this paper is to investigate the applicability of WaveWatch-III wave model to fatigue assessment of offshore floating structures. The applicability was investigated

  10. Waves, currents and sediment transport modelling at the Wave Hub site

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez-Santamaria, Raul

    2013-01-01

    Primary supervisory team: Qingping Zou and Shunqi Pan This research project uses an integrated modelling system to investigate the effects of a wave farm on nearshore sediment transport at the Wave Hub site. The Wave Hub project is a large scale demonstration site for the development of the operation of arrays of wave energy generation devices located at the southwest coast of the UK where multiple field measurements took place. Particular attention of this study was paid to th...

  11. Modeling internal wave generation by seamounts in oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, L.; Buijsman, M. C.; Comino, E. L.; Swinney, H.

    2017-12-01

    Recent global bathymetric data at 30 arc-sec resolution has revealed that there are 33,452 seamounts and 138,412 knolls in the oceans. To develop an estimate for the energy converted from tidal flow to internal gravity waves, we have conducted numerical simulations using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology circulation model (MITgcm) to compute the energy conversion by randomly distributed Gaussian-shaped seamounts. We find that for an isolated axisymmetric seamount of height 1100 m and radius 1600 m, which corresponds to the Wessel height-to-radius ratio 0.69, the conversion rate is 100 kW, assuming a tidal speed amplitude 1 cm/s, buoyancy frequency 1e-3 rad/s, and circularly polarized tidal motion, and taking into account the earth's rotation. The 100 kW estimate is about 60% less than the 3-D linear theory prediction because fluid goes around a seamount instead of over it. Our estimate accounts the suppression of energy conversion due to wave interference at the generation site of closely spaced seamounts. We conclude that for randomly distributed Gaussian seamounts of varying widths and separations, separated on average by 18 km as in the oceans, wave interference reduces the energy conversion by seamounts by only about 16%. This result complements previous studies of wave interference for 2-D ridges.

  12. Stochastic Procedures for Extreme Wave Load Predictions- Wave Bending Moment in Ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2009-01-01

    A discussion of useful stochastic procedures for stochastic wave load problems is given, covering the range from slightly linear to strongly non-linear (bifurcation) problems. The methods are: Hermite transformation, Critical wave episodes and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proced......). The procedures will be illustrated by results for the extreme vertical wave bending moment in ships....

  13. Estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity has similar predictive value as measured carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Sara V; Blicher, Marie K; Kruger, Ruan

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) adds significantly to traditional cardiovascular risk prediction, but is not widely available. Therefore, it would be helpful if cfPWV could be replaced by an estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (ePWV) using age and mean blood pres...... that these traditional risk scores have underestimated the complicated impact of age and blood pressure on arterial stiffness and cardiovascular risk....

  14. Middle Atmosphere Dynamics with Gravity Wave Interactions in the Numerical Spectral Model: Tides and Planetary Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, J. G.; Chan, K. L.; Huang, F. T.

    2010-01-01

    As Lindzen (1981) had shown, small-scale gravity waves (GW) produce the observed reversals of the zonal-mean circulation and temperature variations in the upper mesosphere. The waves also play a major role in modulating and amplifying the diurnal tides (DT) (e.g., Waltersheid, 1981; Fritts and Vincent, 1987; Fritts, 1995a). We summarize here the modeling studies with the mechanistic numerical spectral model (NSM) with Doppler spread parameterization for GW (Hines, 1997a, b), which describes in the middle atmosphere: (a) migrating and non-migrating DT, (b) planetary waves (PW), and (c) global-scale inertio gravity waves. Numerical experiments are discussed that illuminate the influence of GW filtering and nonlinear interactions between DT, PW, and zonal mean variations. Keywords: Theoretical modeling, Middle atmosphere dynamics, Gravity wave interactions, Migrating and non-migrating tides, Planetary waves, Global-scale inertio gravity waves.

  15. Wave Modelling - The State of the Art

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-27

    8217) - -16 C-Ax( M) (I - 2y) -N +1CgAx’(1 -y)(6y’ - 6y + 1) + O(At4), (8.2) 24OX where p is the Courant- Friedrichs -Lewy (CFL) number, j = CgxAt/Ax. Thus...attainable time step is at the best of the order of min- utes . For early third generation wave models, this was unacceptable, and methods were developed to be... Barbara Channel. In: Beal, R. (Ed.), 5th California Islands Symposium, March 29-31. Mineral Management Service, Santa Barbara , CA. Onorato, M., Osborne

  16. The viscous lee wave problem and its implications for ocean modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakespeare, Callum J.; Hogg, Andrew McC.

    2017-05-01

    Ocean circulation models employ 'turbulent' viscosity and diffusivity to represent unresolved sub-gridscale processes such as breaking internal waves. Computational power has now advanced sufficiently to permit regional ocean circulation models to be run at sufficiently high (100 m-1 km) horizontal resolution to resolve a significant part of the internal wave spectrum. Here we develop theory for boundary generated internal waves in such models, and in particular, where the waves dissipate their energy. We focus specifically on the steady lee wave problem where stationary waves are generated by a large-scale flow acting across ocean bottom topography. We generalise the energy flux expressions of [Bell, T., 1975. Topographically generated internal waves in the open ocean. J. Geophys. Res. 80, 320-327] to include the effect of arbitrary viscosity and diffusivity. Applying these results for realistic parameter choices we show that in the present generation of models with O(1) m2s-1 horizontal viscosity/diffusivity boundary-generated waves will inevitably dissipate the majority of their energy within a few hundred metres of the boundary. This dissipation is a direct consequence of the artificially high viscosity/diffusivity, which is not always physically justified in numerical models. Hence, caution is necessary in comparing model results to ocean observations. Our theory further predicts that O(10-2) m2s-1 horizontal and O(10-4) m2s-1 vertical viscosity/diffusivity is required to achieve a qualitatively inviscid representation of internal wave dynamics in ocean models.

  17. Prediction and near-field observation of skull-guided acoustic waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Héctor; Rebling, Johannes; Razansky, Daniel

    2017-06-21

    Ultrasound waves propagating in water or soft biological tissue are strongly reflected when encountering the skull, which limits the use of ultrasound-based techniques in transcranial imaging and therapeutic applications. Current knowledge on the acoustic properties of the cranial bone is restricted to far-field observations, leaving its near-field unexplored. We report on the existence of skull-guided acoustic waves, which was herein confirmed by near-field measurements of optoacoustically-induced responses in ex-vivo murine skulls immersed in water. Dispersion of the guided waves was found to reasonably agree with the prediction of a multilayered flat plate model. We observed a skull-guided wave propagation over a lateral distance of at least 3 mm, with a half-decay length in the direction perpendicular to the skull ranging from 35 to 300 μm at 6 and 0.5 MHz, respectively. Propagation losses are mostly attributed to the heterogenous acoustic properties of the skull. It is generally anticipated that our findings may facilitate and broaden the application of ultrasound-mediated techniques in brain diagnostics and therapy.

  18. Prediction and near-field observation of skull-guided acoustic waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Héctor; Rebling, Johannes; Razansky, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    Ultrasound waves propagating in water or soft biological tissue are strongly reflected when encountering the skull, which limits the use of ultrasound-based techniques in transcranial imaging and therapeutic applications. Current knowledge on the acoustic properties of the cranial bone is restricted to far-field observations, leaving its near-field unexplored. We report on the existence of skull-guided acoustic waves, which was herein confirmed by near-field measurements of optoacoustically-induced responses in ex-vivo murine skulls immersed in water. Dispersion of the guided waves was found to reasonably agree with the prediction of a multilayered flat plate model. We observed a skull-guided wave propagation over a lateral distance of at least 3 mm, with a half-decay length in the direction perpendicular to the skull ranging from 35 to 300 μm at 6 and 0.5 MHz, respectively. Propagation losses are mostly attributed to the heterogenous acoustic properties of the skull. It is generally anticipated that our findings may facilitate and broaden the application of ultrasound-mediated techniques in brain diagnostics and therapy.

  19. Rogue waves in a water tank: Experiments and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechuga, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Recently many rogue waves have been reported as the main cause of ship incidents on the sea. One of the main characteristics of rogue waves is its elusiveness: they present unexpectedly and disappear in the same wave. Some authors (Zakharov and al.2010) are attempting to find the probability of their appearances apart from studyingthe mechanism of the formation. As an effort on this topic we tried the generation of rogue waves in a water wave tank using a symmetric spectrum(Akhmediev et al. 2011) as input on the wave maker. The produced waves were clearly rogue waves with a rate (maximum wave height/ Significant wave height) of 2.33 and a kurtosis of 4.77 (Janssen 2003, Onorato 2006). These results were already presented (Lechuga 2012). Similar waves (in pattern aspect, but without being extreme waves) were described as crossing waves in a water tank(Shemer and Lichter1988). To go on further the next step has been to apply a theoretical model to the envelope of these waves. After some considerations the best model has been an analogue of the Ginzburg-Landau equation. This apparently amazing result is easily explained: We know that the Ginzburg-Landau model is related to some regular structures on the surface of a liquid and also in plasmas, electric and magnetic fields and other media. Another important characteristic of the model is that their solutions are invariants with respectto the translation group. The main aim of this presentation is to extract conclusions of the model and the comparison with the measured waves in the water tank.The nonlinear structure of waves and their regularity make suitable the use of the Ginzburg-Landau model to the envelope of generated waves in the tank,so giving us a powerful tool to cope with the results of our experiment.

  20. Genetic algorithm based support vector machine regression in predicting wave transmission of horizontally interlaced multi-layer moored floating pipe breakwater

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Patil, S.G.; Mandal, S.; Hegde, A.V.

    studies on floating breakwaters in the past but failed to give a simple mathematical model to predict the wave transmission through floating breakwaters by considering all the boundary conditions. Computational intelligence techniques, such as, Artificial...

  1. Estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity has similar predictive value as measured carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Michael; Greve, Sara; Blicher, Marie

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) adds significantly to traditional cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction, but is not widely available. Therefore, it would be helpful if cfPWV could be replaced by an estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (ePWV) using age and mean blood...... pressure and previously published equations. The aim of this study was to investigate whether ePWV could predict CV events independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and/or cfPWV. DESIGN AND METHOD: cfPWV was measured and ePWV calculated in 2366 apparently healthy subjects from four age...

  2. Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil D; Milledge, Simon A H; Bulling, Mark T; Fisher, Brendan; Smart, James C R; Clarke, G Philip; Mhoro, Boniface E; Lewis, Simon L

    2010-08-17

    Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of approximately 0.5 Pgxy(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 kmxy(-1), and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 kmxy(-1). This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mgxha(-1); 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity.

  3. A methodology for spectral wave model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siqueira, S. A.; Edwards, K. L.; Rogers, W. E.

    2017-12-01

    Model evaluation is accomplished by comparing bulk parameters (e.g., significant wave height, energy period, and mean square slope (MSS)) calculated from the model energy spectra with those calculated from buoy energy spectra. Quality control of the observed data and choice of the frequency range from which the bulk parameters are calculated are critical steps in ensuring the validity of the model-data comparison. The compared frequency range of each observation and the analogous model output must be identical, and the optimal frequency range depends in part on the reliability of the observed spectra. National Data Buoy Center 3-m discus buoy spectra are unreliable above 0.3 Hz due to a non-optimal buoy response function correction. As such, the upper end of the spectrum should not be included when comparing a model to these data. Bioufouling of Waverider buoys must be detected, as it can harm the hydrodynamic response of the buoy at high frequencies, thereby rendering the upper part of the spectrum unsuitable for comparison. An important consideration is that the intentional exclusion of high frequency energy from a validation due to data quality concerns (above) can have major implications for validation exercises, especially for parameters such as the third and fourth moments of the spectrum (related to Stokes drift and MSS, respectively); final conclusions can be strongly altered. We demonstrate this by comparing outcomes with and without the exclusion, in a case where a Waverider buoy is believed to be free of biofouling. Determination of the appropriate frequency range is not limited to the observed spectra. Model evaluation involves considering whether all relevant frequencies are included. Guidance to make this decision is based on analysis of observed spectra. Two model frequency lower limits were considered. Energy in the observed spectrum below the model lower limit was calculated for each. For locations where long swell is a component of the wave

  4. Spin-Wave Wave Function for Quantum Spin Models : Condensed Matter and Statistical Physics

    OpenAIRE

    Franjo, FRANJIC; Sandro, SORELLA; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia International School for Advance Studies; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia International School for Advance Studies

    1997-01-01

    We present a new approach to determine an accurate variational wave function for general quantum spin models, completely defined by a consistency requirement with the simple and well-known linear spin-wave expansion. With this wave function, it is also possible to obtain the correct behavior of the long distance correlation functions for the 1D S=1/2 antiferromagnet. In 2D the proposed spin-wave wave function represents an excellent approximation to the exact ground state of the S=1.2 XY mode...

  5. DeRisk - Accurate prediction of ULS wave loads. Outlook and first results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredmose, Henrik; Dixen, Martin; Ghadirian, Amin

    2016-01-01

    Loads from extreme waves can be dimensioning for the substructures of offshore wind turbines. The DeRisk project (2015-2019) aims at an improved load evaluation procedure for extreme waves through application of advanced wave models, laboratory tests of load effects, development of hydrodynamic...... load models, aero-elastic response calculations and statistical analysis. This first paper from the project outlines the content and philosophy behind DeRisk. Next, the first results from laboratory tests with irregular waves are presented, including results for 2D and 3D focused wave groups....... The results of focused wave group tests and a 6-hour (full scale duration) test are reproduced numerically by re-application of the wave paddle signal in a fully nonlinear potential flow wave model. A good match for the free surface elevation and associated exceedance probability curve is obtained. Finally...

  6. Traveling waves and conservation laws for highly nonlinear wave equations modeling Hertz chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Przedborski, Michelle; Anco, Stephen C.

    2017-09-01

    A highly nonlinear, fourth-order wave equation that models the continuum theory of long wavelength pulses in weakly compressed, homogeneous, discrete chains with a general power-law contact interaction is studied. For this wave equation, all solitary wave solutions and all nonlinear periodic wave solutions, along with all conservation laws, are derived. The solutions are explicitly parameterized in terms of the asymptotic value of the wave amplitude in the case of solitary waves and the peak of the wave amplitude in the case of nonlinear periodic waves. All cases in which the solution expressions can be stated in an explicit analytic form using elementary functions are worked out. In these cases, explicit expressions for the total energy and total momentum for all solutions are obtained as well. The derivation of the solutions uses the conservation laws combined with an energy analysis argument to reduce the wave equation directly to a separable first-order differential equation that determines the wave amplitude in terms of the traveling wave variable. This method can be applied more generally to other highly nonlinear wave equations.

  7. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave transformation

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chandramohan, P.; Nayak, B.U.; SanilKumar, V.

    A software has been developed for numerical refraction study based on finite amplitude wave theories. Wave attenuation due to shoaling, bottom friction, bottom percolation and viscous dissipation has also been incorporated. The software...

  8. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere...

  9. Seismic prediction ahead of tunnel construction using Rayleigh-waves

    OpenAIRE

    Jetschny, Stefan; De Nil, Denise; Bohlen, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    To increase safety and efficiency of tunnel constructions, online seismic exploration ahead of a tunnel can become a valuable tool. We developed a new forward looking seismic imaging technique e.g. to determine weak and water bearing zones ahead of the constructions. Our approach is based on the excitation and registration of tunnel surface-waves. These waves are excited at the tunnel face behind the cutter head of a tunnel boring machine and travel into drilling direction. Arriving at the fr...

  10. Can P wave wavelet analysis predict atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassilikos, Vassilios; Dakos, George; Chouvarda, Ioanna; Karagounis, Labros; Karvounis, Haralambos; Maglaveras, Nikolaos; Mochlas, Sotirios; Spanos, Panagiotis; Louridas, George

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was the evaluation of Morlet wavelet analysis of the P wave as a means of predicting the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients who undergo coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The P wave was analyzed using the Morlet wavelet in 50 patients who underwent successful CABG. Group A consisted of 17 patients, 12 men and 5 women, of mean age 66.9 +/- 5.9 years, who developed AF postoperatively. Group B consisted of 33 patients, 29 men and 4 women, mean age 62.4 +/- 7.8 years, who remained arrhythmid-free. Using custom-designed software, P wave duration and wavelet parameters expressing the mean and maximum energy of the P wave were calculated from 3-channel digital recordings derived from orthogonal ECG leads (X, Y, and Z), and the vector magnitude (VM) was determined in each of 3 frequency bands (200-160 Hz, 150-100 Hz and 90-50 Hz). Univariate logistic-regression analysis identified a history of hypertension, the mean and maximum energies in all frequency bands along the Z axis, the mean and maximum energies (expressed by the VM) in the 200-160 Hz frequency band, and the mean energy in the 150-100 Hz frequency band along the Y axis as predictors for post-CABG AF. Multivariate analysis identified hypertension, ejection fraction, and the maximum energies in the 90-50 Hz frequency band along the Z and composite-vector axes as independent predictors. This multivariate model had a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 65%. We conclude that the Morlet wavelet analysis of the P wave is a very sensitive method of identifying patients who are likely to develop AF after CABG. The occurrence of post-CABG AF can be explained by a different activation pattern along the Z axis.

  11. Boussinesq Modeling of Wave Propagation and Runup over Fringing Coral Reefs, Model Evaluation Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Demirbilek, Zeki; Nwogu, Okey G

    2007-01-01

    ..., for waves propagating over fringing reefs. The model evaluation had two goals: (a) investigate differences between laboratory and field characteristics of wave transformation processes over reefs, and (b...

  12. Alfvén Wave Turbulence as a Coronal Heating Mechanism: Simultaneously Predicting the Heating Rate and the Wave-induced Emission Line Broadening

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oran, R. [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02139 (United States); Landi, E.; Holst, B. van der; Sokolov, I. V.; Gombosi, T. I., E-mail: roran@mit.edu [Atmospheric, Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Michigan, 2455 Hayward, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109 (United States)

    2017-08-20

    We test the predictions of the Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), a global wave-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar atmosphere, against high-resolution spectra emitted by the quiescent off-disk solar corona. AWSoM incorporates Alfvén wave propagation and dissipation in both closed and open magnetic field lines; turbulent dissipation is the only heating mechanism. We examine whether this mechanism is consistent with observations of coronal EUV emission by combining model results with the CHIANTI atomic database to create synthetic line-of-sight spectra, where spectral line widths depend on thermal and wave-related ion motions. This is the first time wave-induced line broadening is calculated from a global model with a realistic magnetic field. We used high-resolution SUMER observations above the solar west limb between 1.04 and 1.34 R {sub ⊙} at the equator, taken in 1996 November. We obtained an AWSoM steady-state solution for the corresponding period using a synoptic magnetogram. The 3D solution revealed a pseudo-streamer structure transversing the SUMER line of sight, which contributes significantly to the emission; the modeled electron temperature and density in the pseudo-streamer are consistent with those observed. The synthetic line widths and the total line fluxes are consistent with the observations for five different ions. Further, line widths that include the contribution from the wave-induced ion motions improve the correspondence with observed spectra for all ions. We conclude that the turbulent dissipation assumed in the AWSoM model is a viable candidate for explaining coronal heating, as it is consistent with several independent measured quantities.

  13. Modelling the effect of acoustic waves on nucleation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haqshenas, S. R., E-mail: seyyed.haqshenas.12@ucl.ac.uk; Saffari, N., E-mail: n.saffari@ucl.ac.uk [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 7JE (United Kingdom); Ford, I. J., E-mail: i.ford@ucl.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

    2016-07-14

    A phase transformation in a metastable phase can be affected when it is subjected to a high intensity ultrasound wave. In this study we determined the effect of oscillation in pressure and temperature on a phase transformation using the Gibbs droplet model in a generic format. The developed model is valid for both equilibrium and non-equilibrium clusters formed through a stationary or non-stationary process. We validated the underlying model by comparing the predicted kinetics of water droplet formation from the gas phase against experimental data in the absence of ultrasound. Our results demonstrated better agreement with experimental data in comparison with classical nucleation theory. Then, we determined the thermodynamics and kinetics of nucleation and the early stage of growth of clusters in an isothermal sonocrystallisation process. This new contribution shows that the effect of pressure on the kinetics of nucleation is cluster size-dependent in contrast to classical nucleation theory.

  14. Turbine Control Strategy using Wave Prediction to Optimise Power Take Off of Overtopping Wave Energy Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedd, James; Knapp, Wilfried; Frigaard, Peter

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the control strategy used on Wave Dragon overtopping wave energy converter. The nature of overtopping requires that for optimum performance the water level in the reservoir must be controlled by controlling the turbine outflows. A history of the simulations performed is included...

  15. Wind-Wave Effects on Vertical Mixing in Chesapeake Bay, USA: comparing observations to second-moment closure predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, A. W.; Sanford, L. P.; Scully, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Coherent wave-driven turbulence generated through wave breaking or nonlinear wave-current interactions, e.g. Langmuir turbulence (LT), can significantly enhance the downward transfer of momentum, kinetic energy, and dissolved gases in the oceanic surface layer. There are few observations of these processes in the estuarine or coastal environments, where wind-driven mixing may co-occur with energetic tidal mixing and strong density stratification. This presents a major challenge for evaluating vertical mixing parameterizations used in modeling estuarine and coastal dynamics. We carried out a large, multi-investigator study of wind-driven estuarine dynamics in the middle reaches of Chesapeake Bay, USA, during 2012-2013. The center of the observational array was an instrumented turbulence tower with both atmospheric and marine turbulence sensors as well as rapidly sampled temperature and conductivity sensors. For this paper, we examined the impacts of surface gravity waves on vertical profiles of turbulent mixing and compared our results to second-moment turbulence closure predictions. Wave and turbulence measurements collected from the vertical array of Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADVs) provided direct estimates of the dominant terms in the TKE budget and the surface wave field. Observed dissipation rates, TKE levels, and turbulent length scales are compared to published scaling relations and used in the calculation of second-moment nonequilibrium stability functions. Results indicate that in the surface layer of the estuary, where elevated dissipation is balanced by vertical divergence in TKE flux, existing nonequilibrium stability functions underpredict observed eddy viscosities. The influences of wave breaking and coherent wave-driven turbulence on modeled and observed stability functions will be discussed further in the context of turbulent length scales, TKE and dissipation profiles, and the depth at which the wave-dominated turbulent transport layer

  16. A coupled DEM-CFD method for impulse wave modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tao; Utili, Stefano; Crosta, GiovanBattista

    2015-04-01

    Rockslides can be characterized by a rapid evolution, up to a possible transition into a rock avalanche, which can be associated with an almost instantaneous collapse and spreading. Different examples are available in the literature, but the Vajont rockslide is quite unique for its morphological and geological characteristics, as well as for the type of evolution and the availability of long term monitoring data. This study advocates the use of a DEM-CFD framework for the modelling of the generation of hydrodynamic waves due to the impact of a rapid moving rockslide or rock-debris avalanche. 3D DEM analyses in plane strain by a coupled DEM-CFD code were performed to simulate the rockslide from its onset to the impact with still water and the subsequent wave generation (Zhao et al., 2014). The physical response predicted is in broad agreement with the available observations. The numerical results are compared to those published in the literature and especially to Crosta et al. (2014). According to our results, the maximum computed run up amounts to ca. 120 m and 170 m for the eastern and western lobe cross sections, respectively. These values are reasonably similar to those recorded during the event (i.e. ca. 130 m and 190 m respectively). In these simulations, the slope mass is considered permeable, such that the toe region of the slope can move submerged in the reservoir and the impulse water wave can also flow back into the slope mass. However, the upscaling of the grains size in the DEM model leads to an unrealistically high hydraulic conductivity of the model, such that only a small amount of water is splashed onto the northern bank of the Vajont valley. The use of high fluid viscosity and coarse grain model has shown the possibility to model more realistically both the slope and wave motions. However, more detailed slope and fluid properties, and the need for computational efficiency should be considered in future research work. This aspect has also been

  17. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipton, Alex [Merrill Lynch, Mlfc Main, 2 King Edward Street, London EC1A 1HQ (United Kingdom); Sepp, Artur [Merrill Lynch, 4 World Financial Center, New York, NY 10080 (United States)], E-mail: Alex_Lipton@ml.com, E-mail: Artur_Sepp@ml.com

    2008-08-29

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

  18. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

    2008-08-01

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

  19. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

    2008-01-01

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics

  20. Prediction of separation of gases and gaseous isotopes in a curved shock wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tunstall, J.N.; Harris, W.L.; Childs, K.W.

    1976-01-01

    An examination of the species separation induced by a curved shock wave in a supersonic flow of a binary gas mixture has been undertaken. The objectives of this investigation are to determine the importance of physical mechanisms operative in such flows per the species separation and to develop a self-consistent model for predicting species separation in such flows. The formulation of the model examined in this paper is based on the continuum Navier-Stokes equations. The effects of a specified flow field downstream of the shock have been neglected. The parameters which characterize the separation induced by the shock have been identified. Results show a mathematically self-consistent and physically plausible dependence on the parameters which characterize the phenomenon. A comparison with existing theoretical models and experimental data shows good agreement

  1. Millimeter Wave Radio Frequency Propagation Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-28

    be not be exceeded due to rain could be 95%. However, if the location were in a tropical rain forest , then then threshold might not be exceeded for...molecules grows. Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited. 14 Figure 3. Specific Attenuation Due to Water Vapor and Dry Air 3.1.1.2 Rain ... rain being the most detrimental and uncertain. Predictive models of rain attenuation claim some degree of accuracy up to 55 GHz, although they are

  2. Prediction of the Low Frequency Wave Field on Open Coastal Beaches

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ozkan-Haller, H. T

    2005-01-01

    ... (both abrupt and gradual) affect the resulting low frequency wave climate. 3. The assessment of the importance of interactions between different modes of time-varying motions in the nearshore region, as well as interactions between these modes and the incident wave field. 4. To arrive at a predictive understanding of low frequency motions.

  3. The effects of tropical wind data on the prediction of ultralong waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, W. E.

    1981-01-01

    The influence of tropical wind data on the prediction of planetary waves were studied. Two assimilation experiments were performed, one with and one without FGGE tropical winds. The planetary wave error was then analyzed in 72 h forecasts from the initial conditions provided by the two assimilations.

  4. An overview of the numerical and neural network accosts of ocean wave prediction

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    .8 1.2 1.6 Avg. Measured wave height (m) 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 Fo re ca ste d a vg . w av e h eig ht (m ) COPEDEC VI, 2003, Colombo, Sri Lanka 8 5. CONCLUSIONS The use of neural network for wave prediction will have future application...

  5. Theoretical prediction of a rotating magnon wave packet in ferromagnets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Ryo; Murakami, Shuichi

    2011-05-13

    We theoretically show that the magnon wave packet has a rotational motion in two ways: a self-rotation and a motion along the boundary of the sample (edge current). They are similar to the cyclotron motion of electrons, but unlike electrons the magnons have no charge and the rotation is not due to the Lorentz force. These rotational motions are caused by the Berry phase in momentum space from the magnon band structure. Furthermore, the rotational motion of the magnon gives an additional correction term to the magnon Hall effect. We also discuss the Berry curvature effect in the classical limit of long-wavelength magnetostatic spin waves having macroscopic coherence length.

  6. Experimental modelling of wave amplification over irregular bathymetry for investigations of boulder transport by extreme wave events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Boyle, Louise; Whittaker, Trevor; Cox, Ronadh; Elsäßer, Björn

    2017-04-01

    During the winter of 2013-2014 the west coast of Ireland was exposed to 6 storms over a period of 8 weeks with wind speeds equating to hurricane categories 3 and 4. During this period, the largest significant wave height recorded at the Marine Institute M6 wave buoy, approximately 300km from the site, was 13.6m (on 26th January 2014). However, this may not be the largest sea state of that winter, because the buoy stopped logging on 30th January and therefore failed to capture the full winter period. During the February 12th 2014 "Darwin" storm, the Kinsale Energy Gas Platform off Ireland's south coast measured a wave height of 25 m, which remains the highest wave measured off Ireland's coasts[1]. Following these storms, significant dislocation and transportation of boulders and megagravel was observed on the Aran Islands, Co. Galway at elevations of up to 25m above the high water mark and distances up to 220 m inland including numerous clasts with masses >50t, and at least one megagravel block weighing >500t [2]. Clast movements of this magnitude would not have been predicted from the measured wave heights. This highlights a significant gap in our understanding of the relationships between storms and the coastal environment: how are storm waves amplified and modified by interactions with bathymetry? To gain further understanding of wave amplification, especially over steep and irregular bathymetry, we have designed Froude-scaled wave tank experiments using the 3D coastal wave basin facility at Queen's University Belfast. The basin is 18m long by 16m wide with wave generation by means of a 12m wide bank of 24 top hinged, force feedback, sector carrier wave paddles at one end. The basin is equipped with gravel beaches to dissipate wave energy on the remaining three sides, capable of absorbing up to 99% of the incident wave energy, to prevent unwanted reflections. Representative bathymetry for the Aran Islands is modelled in the basin based on a high resolution

  7. A hydrodynamic model of nearshore waves and wave-induced currents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Khaled Seif

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In This study develops a quasi-three dimensional numerical model of wave driven coastal currents with accounting the effects of the wave-current interaction and the surface rollers. In the wave model, the current effects on wave breaking and energy dissipation are taken into account as well as the wave diffraction effect. The surface roller associated with wave breaking was modeled based on a modification of the equations by Dally and Brown (1995 and Larson and Kraus (2002. Furthermore, the quasi-three dimensional model, which based on Navier-Stokes equations, was modified in association with the surface roller effect, and solved using frictional step method. The model was validated by data sets obtained during experiments on the Large Scale Sediment Transport Facility (LSTF basin and the Hazaki Oceanographical Research Station (HORS. Then, a model test against detached breakwater was carried out to investigate the performance of the model around coastal structures. Finally, the model was applied to Akasaki port to verify the hydrodynamics around coastal structures. Good agreements between computations and measurements were obtained with regard to the cross-shore variation in waves and currents in nearshore and surf zone.

  8. Coupling atmospheric and ocean wave models for storm simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting

    the atmosphere must, by conservation, result in the generation of the surface waves and currents. The physics-based methods are sensitive to the choice of wind-input source function (Sin), parameterization of high-frequency wave spectra tail, and numerical cut-off frequencies. Unfortunately, literature survey......This thesis studies the wind-wave interactions through the coupling between the atmospheric model and ocean surface wave models. Special attention is put on storm simulations in the North Sea for wind energy applications in the coastal zones. The two aspects, namely storm conditions and coastal...... shows that in most wind-wave coupling systems, either the Sin in the wave model is different from the one used for the momentum flux estimation in the atmospheric model, or the methods are too sensitive to the parameterization of high-frequency spectra tail and numerical cut-off frequencies. To confront...

  9. Considerations of the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-01

    predict first P arrival times. Since this is a 3-D model, the travel times are predicted with a 3-D finite-difference code solving the eikonal equations...for the eikonal wave equation should provide more accurate predictions of travel-time from 3D models. These techniques and others are being

  10. Modeling deflagration waves out of hot spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partom, Yehuda

    2017-01-01

    It is widely accepted that shock initiation and detonation of heterogeneous explosives comes about by a two-step process known as ignition and growth. In the first step a shock sweeping through an explosive cell (control volume) creates hot spots that become ignition sites. In the second step, deflagration waves (or burn waves) propagate out of those hot spots and transform the reactant in the cell into reaction products. The macroscopic (or average) reaction rate of the reactant in the cell depends on the speed of those deflagration waves and on the average distance between neighboring hot spots. Here we simulate the propagation of deflagration waves out of hot spots on the mesoscale in axial symmetry using a 2D hydrocode, to which we add heat conduction and bulk reaction. The propagation speed of the deflagration waves may depend on both pressure and temperature. It depends on pressure for quasistatic loading near ambient temperature, and on temperature at high temperatures resulting from shock loading. From the simulation we obtain deflagration fronts emanating out of the hot spots. For 8 to 13 GPa shocks, the emanating fronts propagate as deflagration waves to consume the explosive between hot spots. For higher shock levels deflagration waves may interact with the sweeping shock to become detonation waves on the mesoscale. From the simulation results we extract average deflagration wave speeds.

  11. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  12. A review of wave climate and prediction along the Spanish Mediterranean coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sánchez-Arcilla

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the characterization of wave storms along the Spanish/Catalan Mediterranean coast. It considers the "physical" and "statistical" description of wave parameters and how they are affected by the prevailing meteo patterns and the sharp gradients in orography and bathymetry. The available field data and numerically simulated wave fields are discussed from this perspective. The resulting limits in accuracy and predictability are illustrated with specific examples. This allows deriving some conclusions for both short-term operational predictions and a long-term climatic assessment.

  13. Wave Tank Testing and Model Validation of an Autonomous Wave Energy Converter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bret Bosma

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A key component in bringing ocean wave energy converters from concept to commercialization is the building and testing of scaled prototypes to provide model validation. A one quarter scale prototype of an autonomous two body heaving point absorber was modeled, built, and tested for this work. Wave tank testing results are compared with two hydrodynamic and system models—implemented in both ANSYS AQWA and MATLAB/Simulink—and show model validation over certain regions of operation. This work will serve as a guide for future developers of wave energy converter devices, providing insight in taking their design from concept to prototype stage.

  14. Model-based dispersive wave processing: A recursive Bayesian solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candy, J.V.; Chambers, D.H.

    1999-01-01

    Wave propagation through dispersive media represents a significant problem in many acoustic applications, especially in ocean acoustics, seismology, and nondestructive evaluation. In this paper we propose a propagation model that can easily represent many classes of dispersive waves and proceed to develop the model-based solution to the wave processing problem. It is shown that the underlying wave system is nonlinear and time-variable requiring a recursive processor. Thus the general solution to the model-based dispersive wave enhancement problem is developed using a Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) approach and shown to lead to the recursive, nonlinear extended Kalman filter (EKF) processor. The problem of internal wave estimation is cast within this framework. The specific processor is developed and applied to data synthesized by a sophisticated simulator demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. copyright 1999 Acoustical Society of America.

  15. The use of a wave boundary layer model in SWAN

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting; Bolaños, Rodolfo; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo

    2017-01-01

    A Wave Boundary Layer Model (WBLM) is implemented in the third-generation ocean wave model SWAN to improve the wind-input source function under idealized, fetch-limited condition. Accordingly, the white capping dissipation parameters are re-calibrated to fit the new wind-input source function...

  16. Modelling of Performance of Caisson Type Breakwaters under Extreme Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güney Doǧan, Gözde; Özyurt Tarakcıoǧlu, Gülizar; Baykal, Cüneyt

    2016-04-01

    Many coastal structures are designed without considering loads of tsunami-like waves or long waves although they are constructed in areas prone to encounter these waves. Performance of caisson type breakwaters under extreme swells is tested in Middle East Technical University (METU) Coastal and Ocean Engineering Laboratory. This paper presents the comparison of pressure measurements taken along the surface of caisson type breakwaters and obtained from numerical modelling of them using IH2VOF as well as damage behavior of the breakwater under the same extreme swells tested in a wave flume at METU. Experiments are conducted in the 1.5 m wide wave flume, which is divided into two parallel sections (0.74 m wide each). A piston type of wave maker is used to generate the long wave conditions located at one end of the wave basin. Water depth is determined as 0.4m and kept constant during the experiments. A caisson type breakwater is constructed to one side of the divided flume. The model scale, based on the Froude similitude law, is chosen as 1:50. 7 different wave conditions are applied in the tests as the wave period ranging from 14.6 s to 34.7 s, wave heights from 3.5 m to 7.5 m and steepness from 0.002 to 0.015 in prototype scale. The design wave parameters for the breakwater were 5m wave height and 9.5s wave period in prototype. To determine the damage of the breakwater which were designed according to this wave but tested under swell waves, video and photo analysis as well as breakwater profile measurements before and after each test are performed. Further investigations are carried out about the acting wave forces on the concrete blocks of the caisson structures via pressure measurements on the surfaces of these structures where the structures are fixed to the channel bottom minimizing. Finally, these pressure measurements will be compared with the results obtained from the numerical study using IH2VOF which is one of the RANS models that can be applied to simulate

  17. Numerical modelling of extreme waves by Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Dao

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of extreme/rogue waves can lead to serious damage of vessels as well as marine and coastal structures. Such extreme waves in deep water are characterized by steep wave fronts and an energetic wave crest. The process of wave breaking is highly complex and, apart from the general knowledge that impact loadings are highly impulsive, the dynamics of the breaking and impact are still poorly understood. Using an advanced numerical method, the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics enhanced with parallel computing is able to reproduce well the extreme waves and their breaking process. Once the waves and their breaking process are modelled successfully, the dynamics of the breaking and the characteristics of their impact on offshore structures could be studied. The computational methodology and numerical results are presented in this paper.

  18. Analytical and computational modelling for wave energy systems: the example of oscillating wave surge converters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Frédéric; Renzi, Emiliano; Gallagher, Sarah; Sarkar, Dripta; Wei, Yanji; Abadie, Thomas; Cummins, Cathal; Rafiee, Ashkan

    2017-08-01

    The development of new wave energy converters has shed light on a number of unanswered questions in fluid mechanics, but has also identified a number of new issues of importance for their future deployment. The main concerns relevant to the practical use of wave energy converters are sustainability, survivability, and maintainability. Of course, it is also necessary to maximize the capture per unit area of the structure as well as to minimize the cost. In this review, we consider some of the questions related to the topics of sustainability, survivability, and maintenance access, with respect to sea conditions, for generic wave energy converters with an emphasis on the oscillating wave surge converter. New analytical models that have been developed are a topic of particular discussion. It is also shown how existing numerical models have been pushed to their limits to provide answers to open questions relating to the operation and characteristics of wave energy converters.

  19. Analytical and computational modelling for wave energy systems: the example of oscillating wave surge converters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Frédéric; Renzi, Emiliano; Gallagher, Sarah; Sarkar, Dripta; Wei, Yanji; Abadie, Thomas; Cummins, Cathal; Rafiee, Ashkan

    2017-01-01

    The development of new wave energy converters has shed light on a number of unanswered questions in fluid mechanics, but has also identified a number of new issues of importance for their future deployment. The main concerns relevant to the practical use of wave energy converters are sustainability, survivability, and maintainability. Of course, it is also necessary to maximize the capture per unit area of the structure as well as to minimize the cost. In this review, we consider some of the questions related to the topics of sustainability, survivability, and maintenance access, with respect to sea conditions, for generic wave energy converters with an emphasis on the oscillating wave surge converter. New analytical models that have been developed are a topic of particular discussion. It is also shown how existing numerical models have been pushed to their limits to provide answers to open questions relating to the operation and characteristics of wave energy converters.

  20. Prediction of LVH from average of R wave amplitude in leads I and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Aim: The aim of this study was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values of average of R wave amplitude in leads I and V5 in predicting LVH Methodology: This is a cross-sectional descriptive study of adult hypertensive subjects. Participants were assessed for LVH using the ...

  1. Evaluation of the numerical wave model (SWAN) for wave simulation in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akpınar, Adem; van Vledder, Gerbrant Ph.; Kömürcü, Murat İhsan; Özger, Mehmet

    2012-12-01

    This study summaries the implementation of the SWAN model forced by the ECMWF ERA Interim dataset reanalyzed 10 m winds over the Black Sea which will be used to study the wind-wave climate and wave energy potential in the region, and its verification. The SWAN model results were compared with directional buoy measurements at three locations along the north and south coasts of the Black Sea, parametric model results based on the JONSWAP growth relations, and the results of previous studies. The SWAN model has been applied in a third generation and non-stationary mode with spherical coordinates. The linear and exponential growth from wind input, depth-induced wave breaking, bottom friction, whitecapping, four-wave (for deep water) and triad-wave (for shallow water) nonlinear interactions have been activated in the simulations. The results of this study indicate that agreement between simulated and observed wave parameters is satisfactory and it is slightly more accurate than the results of the previous studies. However, it still has lower estimates for the maximum values of both wave parameters. These lower estimates are probably due to too low wind speeds in the applied ECMWF wind fields, which is probably caused by orographic effects, and due to the relatively course resolution in time and space of the ECMWF (ERA-Interim) wind fields for the Black Sea.

  2. Spectral analysis of surface waves method to assess shear wave velocity within centrifuge models

    OpenAIRE

    MURILLO, Carol Andrea; THOREL, Luc; CAICEDO, Bernardo

    2009-01-01

    The method of the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) is tested out on reduced scale centrifuge models, with a specific device, called the mini Falling Weight, developed for this purpose. Tests are performed on layered materials made of a mixture of sand and clay. The shear wave velocity VS determined within the models using the SASW is compared with the laboratory measurements carried out using the bender element test. The results show that the SASW technique applied to centrifuge test...

  3. Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment. Part 2: Variability and predictability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, Edward B.L.; Bahaj, AbuBakr S.; Challenor, Peter G.

    2010-01-01

    The uncertainty in estimates of the energy yield from a wave energy converter (WEC) is considered. The study is presented in two articles. The first article considered the accuracy of the historic data and the second article, presented here, considers the uncertainty which arises from variability in the wave climate. Mean wave conditions exhibit high levels of interannual variability. Moreover, many previous studies have demonstrated longer-term decadal changes in wave climate. The effect of interannual and climatic changes in wave climate on the predictability of long-term mean WEC power is examined for an area off the north coast of Scotland. In this location anomalies in mean WEC power are strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This link enables the results of many previous studies on the variability of the NAO and its sensitivity to climate change to be applied to WEC power levels. It is shown that the variability in 5, 10 and 20 year mean power levels is greater than if annual power anomalies were uncorrelated noise. It is also shown that the change in wave climate from anthropogenic climate change over the life time of a wave farm is likely to be small in comparison to the natural level of variability. Finally, it is shown that despite the uncertainty related to variability in the wave climate, improvements in the accuracy of historic data will improve the accuracy of predictions of future WEC yield. (author)

  4. Wind-wave modelling aspects within complicate topography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Christopoulos

    Full Text Available Wave forecasting aspects for basins with complicate geomorphology, such as the Aegean Sea, are investigated through an intercomparison study. The efficiency of the available wind models (ECMWF, UKMO to reproduce wind patterns over special basins, as well as three wave models incorporating different physics and characteristics (WAM, AUT, WACCAS, are tested for selected storm cases representing the typical wind situations over the basin. From the wave results, discussed in terms of time-series and statistical parameters, the crucial role is pointed out of the wind resolution and the reliability of the different wave models to estimate the wave climate in such a basin. The necessary grid resolution is also tested, while for a specific test case (December 1991 ERS-1 satellite data are compared with those of the model.

  5. TWO-DIMENSIONAL MODELLING OF ACCIDENTAL FLOOD WAVES PROPAGATION

    OpenAIRE

    Lorand Catalin STOENESCU

    2011-01-01

    The study presented in this article describes a modern modeling methodology of the propagation of accidental flood waves in case a dam break; this methodology is applied in Romania for the first time for the pilot project „Breaking scenarios of Poiana Uzului dam”. The calculation programs used help us obtain a bidimensional calculation (2D) of the propagation of flood waves, taking into consideration the diminishing of the flood wave on a normal direction to the main direction; this diminishi...

  6. Jacobian elliptic wave solutions in an anharmonic molecular crystal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teh, C.G.R.; Lee, B.S.; Koo, W.K.

    1997-07-01

    Explicit Jacobian elliptic wave solutions are found in the anharmonic molecular crystal model for both the continuum limit and discrete modes. This class of wave solutions include the famous pulse-like and kink-like solitary modes. We would also like to report on the existence of some highly discrete staggered solitary wave modes not found in the continuum limit. (author). 9 refs, 1 fig

  7. An analytical model for the prediction of rip spacing in intermediate ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    61

    study, an analytical model was presented to predict the spacing of channel rip currents (Srip) ... beach and normal wave incidence in two cases with the fixed breaking line and variable one .... On the other hand, in the above relations radiation.

  8. Surf Wave Hydrodynamics in the Coastal Environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salmon, J.E.

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic wave models play a central role in our present-day wave modelling capabilities. They are frequently used to compute wave statistics, to generate boundary conditions and to include wave effects in coupled model systems. Historically, such models were developed to predict the wave field

  9. Finite element modeling of acoustic wave propagation and energy deposition in bone during extracorporeal shock wave treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaofeng; Matula, Thomas J.; Ma, Yong; Liu, Zheng; Tu, Juan; Guo, Xiasheng; Zhang, Dong

    2013-06-01

    It is well known that extracorporeal shock wave treatment is capable of providing a non-surgical and relatively pain free alternative treatment modality for patients suffering from musculoskeletal disorders but do not respond well to conservative treatments. The major objective of current work is to investigate how the shock wave (SW) field would change if a bony structure exists in the path of the acoustic wave. Here, a model of finite element method (FEM) was developed based on linear elasticity and acoustic propagation equations to examine SW propagation and deflection near a mimic musculoskeletal bone. High-speed photography experiments were performed to record cavitation bubbles generated in SW field with the presence of mimic bone. By comparing experimental and simulated results, the effectiveness of FEM model could be verified and strain energy distributions in the bone were also predicted according to numerical simulations. The results show that (1) the SW field will be deflected with the presence of bony structure and varying deflection angles can be observed as the bone shifted up in the z-direction relative to SW geometric focus (F2 focus); (2) SW deflection angels predicted by the FEM model agree well with experimental results obtained from high-speed photographs; and (3) temporal evolutions of strain energy distribution in the bone can also be evaluated based on FEM model, with varied vertical distance between F2 focus and intended target point on the bone surface. The present studies indicate that, by combining MRI/CT scans and FEM modeling work, it is possible to better understand SW propagation characteristics and energy deposition in musculoskeletal structure during extracorporeal shock wave treatment, which is important for standardizing the treatment dosage, optimizing treatment protocols, and even providing patient-specific treatment guidance in clinic.

  10. A deterministic combination of numerical and physical models for coastal waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Haiwen

    2006-01-01

    of numerical and physical modelling hence provides an attractive alternative to the use of either tool on it's own. The goal of this project has been to develop a deterministically combined numerical/physical model where the physical wave tank is enclosed in a much larger computational domain, and the two......Numerical and physical modelling are the two main tools available for predicting the influence of water waves on coastlines and structures placed in the near-shore environment. Numerical models can cover large areas at the correct scale, but are limited in their ability to capture strong...... nonlinearities, wave breaking, splash, mixing, and other such complicated physics. Physical models naturally include the real physics (at the model scale), but are limited by the physical size of the facility and must contend with the fact that different physical effects scale differently. An integrated use...

  11. Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

    2017-04-01

    The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution NEMO model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force and the sea-state dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water level and current predictions.

  12. Modeling the Buoyancy System of a Wave Energy Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Tom S.; Nielsen, Kirsten M.

    2009-01-01

    A nonlinear dynamic model of the buoyancy system in a wave energy power plant is presented. The plant ("Wave Dragon") is a floating device using the potential energy in overtopping waves to produce power. A water reservoir is placed on top of the WD, and hydro turbines lead the water to the sea...... producing electrical power. Through air chambers it is possible to control the level of the WD. It is important to control the level in order to maximize the power production in proportion to the wave height, here the amount of overtopping water and the amount of potential energy is conflicting...

  13. Variational Boussinesq model for strongly nonlinear dispersive waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lawrence, C.; Adytia, D.; van Groesen, E.

    2018-01-01

    For wave tank, coastal and oceanic applications, a fully nonlinear Variational Boussinesq model with optimized dispersion is derived and a simple Finite Element implementation is described. Improving a previous weakly nonlinear version, high waves over flat and varying bottom are shown to be

  14. Models for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered porous media

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kudarova, A.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Drijkoningen, G.G.

    2014-01-01

    Several models are discussed for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered poroelastic media where layers represent mesoscopic-scale heterogeneities that are larger than the pore and grain sizes but smaller than the wavelength. The layers behave according to Biot’s theory. Wave propagation

  15. Particle transport model sensitivity on wave-induced processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Ricker, Marcel; Krüger, Oliver; Breivik, Oyvind; Stanev, Emil; Schrum, Corinna

    2017-04-01

    Different effects of wind waves on the hydrodynamics in the North Sea are investigated using a coupled wave (WAM) and circulation (NEMO) model system. The terms accounting for the wave-current interaction are: the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state dependent momentum and energy flux. The role of the different Stokes drift parameterizations is investigated using a particle-drift model. Those particles can be considered as simple representations of either oil fractions, or fish larvae. In the ocean circulation models the momentum flux from the atmosphere, which is related to the wind speed, is passed directly to the ocean and this is controlled by the drag coefficient. However, in the real ocean, the waves play also the role of a reservoir for momentum and energy because different amounts of the momentum flux from the atmosphere is taken up by the waves. In the coupled model system the momentum transferred into the ocean model is estimated as the fraction of the total flux that goes directly to the currents plus the momentum lost from wave dissipation. Additionally, we demonstrate that the wave-induced Stokes-Coriolis force leads to a deflection of the current. During the extreme events the Stokes velocity is comparable in magnitude to the current velocity. The resulting wave-induced drift is crucial for the transport of particles in the upper ocean. The performed sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the model skill depends on the chosen processes. The results are validated using surface drifters, ADCP, HF radar data and other in-situ measurements in different regions of the North Sea with a focus on the coastal areas. The using of a coupled model system reveals that the newly introduced wave effects are important for the drift-model performance, especially during extremes. Those effects cannot be neglected by search and rescue, oil-spill, transport of biological material, or larva drift modelling.

  16. Prediction of Compressional, Shear, and Stoneley Wave Velocities from Conventional Well Log Data Using a Committee Machine with Intelligent Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asoodeh, Mojtaba; Bagheripour, Parisa

    2012-01-01

    Measurement of compressional, shear, and Stoneley wave velocities, carried out by dipole sonic imager (DSI) logs, provides invaluable data in geophysical interpretation, geomechanical studies and hydrocarbon reservoir characterization. The presented study proposes an improved methodology for making a quantitative formulation between conventional well logs and sonic wave velocities. First, sonic wave velocities were predicted from conventional well logs using artificial neural network, fuzzy logic, and neuro-fuzzy algorithms. Subsequently, a committee machine with intelligent systems was constructed by virtue of hybrid genetic algorithm-pattern search technique while outputs of artificial neural network, fuzzy logic and neuro-fuzzy models were used as inputs of the committee machine. It is capable of improving the accuracy of final prediction through integrating the outputs of aforementioned intelligent systems. The hybrid genetic algorithm-pattern search tool, embodied in the structure of committee machine, assigns a weight factor to each individual intelligent system, indicating its involvement in overall prediction of DSI parameters. This methodology was implemented in Asmari formation, which is the major carbonate reservoir rock of Iranian oil field. A group of 1,640 data points was used to construct the intelligent model, and a group of 800 data points was employed to assess the reliability of the proposed model. The results showed that the committee machine with intelligent systems performed more effectively compared with individual intelligent systems performing alone.

  17. Modeling aspects of wave kinematics in offshore structures dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spanos, P.D.; Ghanem, R.; Bhattacharjee, S.

    1993-01-01

    Magnitude and phase related issues of modeling of ocean wave kinematics are addressed. Causal and non-causal filters are examined. It is shown that if for a particular ocean engineering problem only the magnitude representation of wave spectra spatial relation is critical, analog filters can be quite useful models in conjunction with the technique of statistical linearization, for calculating dynamic analyses. This is illustrated by considering the dynamic response of a simple model of a guyed tower

  18. Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite

    OpenAIRE

    Schlaudraff, Kai-Uwe; Kiessling, Maren C; Császár, Nikolaus BM; Schmitz, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Kai-Uwe Schlaudraff,1 Maren C Kiessling,2 Nikolaus BM Császár,2 Christoph Schmitz21Concept Clinic, Geneva, Switzerland; 2Department of Anatomy II, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Munich, GermanyBackground: Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predict...

  19. Experimental study of strain prediction on wave induced structures using modal decomposition and quasi static Ritz vectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skafte, Anders; Kristoffersen, Julie; Vestermark, Jonas

    2017-01-01

    into two parts using complementary filters: Low frequency response caused by the quasi-static effect of the waves acting on the structure, and the high frequency response given by the modal properties of the structure. The high frequency response is then decomposed into modal coordinates using...... the experimental mode shapes. Strain histories are predicted by multiplying the modal coordinates with the expanded strain mode shapes. The low frequency response is decomposed using Ritz-vectors corresponding to the shapes that the structure vibrates with due to the wave loading. Strain Ritz......-vectors are then extracted from the finite element model by applying a load corresponding to a representative wave and the strain history for the low frequency response is found by multiplying the decomposed signal with the strain Ritz-vectors. Finally the combined strain history is found by adding the strain histories from...

  20. Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

  1. A Weakly Nonlinear Model for the Damping of Resonantly Forced Density Waves in Dense Planetary Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Marius; Schmidt, Jürgen; Salo, Heikki

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we address the stability of resonantly forced density waves in dense planetary rings. Goldreich & Tremaine have already argued that density waves might be unstable, depending on the relationship between the ring’s viscosity and the surface mass density. In the recent paper Schmidt et al., we have pointed out that when—within a fluid description of the ring dynamics—the criterion for viscous overstability is satisfied, forced spiral density waves become unstable as well. In this case, linear theory fails to describe the damping, but nonlinearity of the underlying equations guarantees a finite amplitude and eventually a damping of the wave. We apply the multiple scale formalism to derive a weakly nonlinear damping relation from a hydrodynamical model. This relation describes the resonant excitation and nonlinear viscous damping of spiral density waves in a vertically integrated fluid disk with density dependent transport coefficients. The model consistently predicts density waves to be (linearly) unstable in a ring region where the conditions for viscous overstability are met. Sufficiently far away from the Lindblad resonance, the surface mass density perturbation is predicted to saturate to a constant value due to nonlinear viscous damping. The wave’s damping lengths of the model depend on certain input parameters, such as the distance to the threshold for viscous overstability in parameter space and the ground state surface mass density.

  2. Experimental and modeling analysis of fast ionization wave discharge propagation in a rectangular geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takashima, Keisuke; Adamovich, Igor V.; Xiong Zhongmin; Kushner, Mark J.; Starikovskaia, Svetlana; Czarnetzki, Uwe; Luggenhoelscher, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    Fast ionization wave (FIW), nanosecond pulse discharge propagation in nitrogen and helium in a rectangular geometry channel/waveguide is studied experimentally using calibrated capacitive probe measurements. The repetitive nanosecond pulse discharge in the channel was generated using a custom designed pulsed plasma generator (peak voltage 10-40 kV, pulse duration 30-100 ns, and voltage rise time ∼1 kV/ns), generating a sequence of alternating polarity high-voltage pulses at a pulse repetition rate of 20 Hz. Both negative polarity and positive polarity ionization waves have been studied. Ionization wave speed, as well as time-resolved potential distributions and axial electric field distributions in the propagating discharge are inferred from the capacitive probe data. ICCD images show that at the present conditions the FIW discharge in helium is diffuse and volume-filling, while in nitrogen the discharge propagates along the walls of the channel. FIW discharge propagation has been analyzed numerically using quasi-one-dimensional and two-dimensional kinetic models in a hydrodynamic (drift-diffusion), local ionization approximation. The wave speed and the electric field distribution in the wave front predicted by the model are in good agreement with the experimental results. A self-similar analytic solution of the fast ionization wave propagation equations has also been obtained. The analytic model of the FIW discharge predicts key ionization wave parameters, such as wave speed, peak electric field in the front, potential difference across the wave, and electron density as functions of the waveform on the high voltage electrode, in good agreement with the numerical calculations and the experimental results.

  3. Thermodynamic model of the compaction of powder materials by shock waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijken, Durandus; Hosson, J.Th.M. De

    1994-01-01

    For powder materials a model is proposed to predict the mean temperature behind the shock wave, the ratio between the increase of thermal energy and increase of total internal energy, as well as the mean final temperature after release of adiabatic pressure. Further, the change of pressure, specific

  4. Solvable model of spiral wave chimeras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Erik A; Laing, Carlo R; Strogatz, Steven H

    2010-01-29

    Spiral waves are ubiquitous in two-dimensional systems of chemical or biological oscillators coupled locally by diffusion. At the center of such spirals is a phase singularity, a topological defect where the oscillator amplitude drops to zero. But if the coupling is nonlocal, a new kind of spiral can occur, with a circular core consisting of desynchronized oscillators running at full amplitude. Here, we provide the first analytical description of such a spiral wave chimera and use perturbation theory to calculate its rotation speed and the size of its incoherent core.

  5. Solvable Model of Spiral Wave Chimeras

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martens, Erik Andreas; Laing, Carlo R.; Strogatz, Steven H.

    2010-01-01

    Spiral waves are ubiquitous in two-dimensional systems of chemical or biological oscillators coupled locally by diffusion. At the center of such spirals is a phase singularity, a topological defect where the oscillator amplitude drops to zero. But if the coupling is nonlocal, a new kind of spiral...... can occur, with a circular core consisting of desynchronized oscillators running at full amplitude. Here, we provide the first analytical description of such a spiral wave chimera and use perturbation theory to calculate its rotation speed and the size of its incoherent core....

  6. Computational study of nonlinear plasma waves. I. Simulation model and monochromatic wave propagtion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matda, Y.; Crawford, F.W.

    1974-12-01

    An economical low noise plasma simulation model is applied to a series of problems associated with electrostatic wave propagation in a one-dimensional, collisionless, Maxwellian plasma, in the absence of magnetic field. The model is described and tested, first in the absence of an applied signal, and then with a small amplitude perturbation, to establish the low noise features and to verify the theoretical linear dispersion relation at wave energy levels as low as 0.000,001 of the plasma thermal energy. The method is then used to study propagation of an essentially monochromatic plane wave. Results on amplitude oscillation and nonlinear frequency shift are compared with available theories. The additional phenomena of sideband instability and satellite growth, stimulated by large amplitude wave propagation and the resulting particle trapping, are described. (auth)

  7. Modelization of highly nonlinear waves in coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Maïté; Ducrozet, Guillaume; Ferrant, Pierre

    2015-04-01

    The proposed work deals with the development of a highly non-linear model for water wave propagation in coastal regions. The accurate modelization of surface gravity waves is of major interest in ocean engineering, especially in the field of marine renewable energy. These marine structures are intended to be settled in coastal regions where the effect of variable bathymetry may be significant on local wave conditions. This study presents a numerical model for the wave propagation with complex bathymetry. It is based on High-Order Spectral (HOS) method, initially limited to the propagation of non-linear wave fields over flat bottom. Such a model has been developed and validated at the LHEEA Lab. (Ecole Centrale Nantes) over the past few years and the current developments will enlarge its application range. This new numerical model will keep the interesting numerical properties of the original pseudo-spectral approach (convergence, efficiency with the use of FFTs, …) and enable the possibility to propagate highly non-linear wave fields over long time and large distance. Different validations will be provided in addition to the presentation of the method. At first, Bragg reflection will be studied with the proposed approach. If the Bragg condition is satisfied, the reflected wave generated by a sinusoidal bottom patch should be amplified as a result of resonant quadratic interactions between incident wave and bottom. Comparisons will be provided with experiments and reference solutions. Then, the method will be used to consider the transformation of a non-linear monochromatic wave as it propagates up and over a submerged bar. As the waves travel up the front slope of the bar, it steepens and high harmonics are generated due to non-linear interactions. Comparisons with experimental data will be provided. The different test cases will assess the accuracy and efficiency of the method proposed.

  8. New Gravity Wave Treatments for GISS Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Marvin A.; Zhou, Tiehan; Ruedy, Reto; Aleinov, Igor; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tausnev, Nikolai L.; Sun, Shan; Kelley, Maxwell; Cheng, Ye

    2011-01-01

    Previous versions of GISS climate models have either used formulations of Rayleigh drag to represent unresolved gravity wave interactions with the model-resolved flow or have included a rather complicated treatment of unresolved gravity waves that, while being climate interactive, involved the specification of a relatively large number of parameters that were not well constrained by observations and also was computationally very expensive. Here, the authors introduce a relatively simple and computationally efficient specification of unresolved orographic and nonorographic gravity waves and their interaction with the resolved flow. Comparisons of the GISS model winds and temperatures with no gravity wave parameterization; with only orographic gravity wave parameterization; and with both orographic and nonorographic gravity wave parameterizations are shown to illustrate how the zonal mean winds and temperatures converge toward observations. The authors also show that the specifications of orographic and nonorographic gravity waves must be different in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Then results are presented where the nonorographic gravity wave sources are specified to represent sources from convection in the intertropical convergence zone and spontaneous emission from jet imbalances. Finally, a strategy to include these effects in a climate-dependent manner is suggested.

  9. Dynamical criteria for rogue waves in nonlinear Schrödinger models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calini, Annalisa; Schober, Constance M

    2012-01-01

    We investigate rogue waves in deep water in the framework of the nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) and Dysthe equations. Amongst the homoclinic orbits of unstable NLS Stokes waves, we seek good candidates to model actual rogue waves. In this paper we propose two selection criteria: stability under perturbations of initial data, and persistence under perturbations of the NLS model. We find that requiring stability selects homoclinic orbits of maximal dimension. Persistence under (a particular) perturbation selects a homoclinic orbit of maximal dimension all of whose spatial modes are coalesced. These results suggest that more realistic sea states, described by JONSWAP power spectra, may be analyzed in terms of proximity to NLS homoclinic data. In fact, using the NLS spectral theory, we find that rogue wave events in random oceanic sea states are well predicted by proximity to homoclinic data of the NLS equation. (invited article)

  10. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  11. Nonlinear whistler wave model for lion roars in the Earth's magnetosheath

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwivedi, N. K.; Singh, S.

    2017-09-01

    In the present study, we construct a nonlinear whistler wave model to explain the magnetic field spectra observed for lion roars in the Earth's magnetosheath region. We use two-fluid theory and semi-analytical approach to derive the dynamical equation of whistler wave propagating along the ambient magnetic field. We examine the magnetic field localization of parallel propagating whistler wave in the intermediate beta plasma applicable to the Earth's magnetosheath. In addition, we investigate spectral features of the magnetic field fluctuations and the spectral slope value. The magnetic field spectrum obtained by semi-analytical approach shows a spectral break point and becomes steeper at higher wave numbers. The observations of IMP 6 plasma waves and magnetometer experiment reveal the existence of short period magnetic field fluctuations in the magnetosheath. The observation shows the broadband spectrum with a spectral slope of -4.5 superimposed with a narrow band peak. The broadband fluctuations appear due to the energy cascades attributed by low-frequency magnetohydrodynamic modes, whereas, a narrow band peak is observed due to the short period lion roars bursts. The energy spectrum predicted by the present theoretical model shows a similar broadband spectrum in the wave number domain with a spectral slope of -3.2, however, it does not show any narrow band peak. Further, we present a comparison between theoretical energy spectrum and the observed spectral slope in the frequency domain. The present semi-analytical model provides exposure to the whistler wave turbulence in the Earth's magnetosheath.

  12. Identification and modeling of internal waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Murty, T.V.R.; Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, M.M.M.; SujithKumar, S.; Maneesha, K.; Sandhya, K.S.; Prakash, S.S.; Chandramouli, P.; Murthy, K.S.R.

    Analyses of Internal Wave (IW) signatures by insitu observations off Visakhapatnam have been presented to study the impact of IWs on acoustic field. Temperature data were collected for 44 hours off Visakhapatnam (17° 26.46’N and 83° 31.20’E...

  13. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  14. Stem breakage of salt marsh vegetation under wave forcing: A field and model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuik, Vincent; Suh Heo, Hannah Y.; Zhu, Zhenchang; Borsje, Bas W.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

    2018-01-01

    One of the services provided by coastal ecosystems is wave attenuation by vegetation, and subsequent reduction of wave loads on flood defense structures. Therefore, stability of vegetation under wave forcing is an important factor to consider. This paper presents a model which determines the wave load that plant stems can withstand before they break or fold. This occurs when wave-induced bending stresses exceed the flexural strength of stems. Flexural strength was determined by means of three-point-bending tests, which were carried out for two common salt marsh species: Spartina anglica (common cord-grass) and Scirpus maritimus (sea club-rush), at different stages in the seasonal cycle. Plant stability is expressed in terms of a critical orbital velocity, which combines factors that contribute to stability: high flexural strength, large stem diameter, low vegetation height, high flexibility and a low drag coefficient. In order to include stem breakage in the computation of wave attenuation by vegetation, the stem breakage model was implemented in a wave energy balance. A model parameter was calibrated so that the predicted stem breakage corresponded with the wave-induced loss of biomass that occurred in the field. The stability of Spartina is significantly higher than that of Scirpus, because of its higher strength, shorter stems, and greater flexibility. The model is validated by applying wave flume tests of Elymus athericus (sea couch), which produced reasonable results with regards to the threshold of folding and overall stem breakage percentage, despite the high flexibility of this species. Application of the stem breakage model will lead to a more realistic assessment of the role of vegetation for coastal protection.

  15. Machine-Learning-Based Future Received Signal Strength Prediction Using Depth Images for mmWave Communications

    OpenAIRE

    Okamoto, Hironao; Nishio, Takayuki; Nakashima, Kota; Koda, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Koji; Morikura, Masahiro; Asai, Yusuke; Miyatake, Ryo

    2018-01-01

    This paper discusses a machine-learning (ML)-based future received signal strength (RSS) prediction scheme using depth camera images for millimeter-wave (mmWave) networks. The scheme provides the future RSS prediction of any mmWave links within the camera's view, including links where nodes are not transmitting frames. This enables network controllers to conduct network operations before line-of-sight path blockages degrade the RSS. Using the ML techniques, the prediction scheme automatically...

  16. Wave speeds in the macroscopic extended model for ultrarelativistic gases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borghero, F., E-mail: borghero@unica.it [Dip. Matematica e Informatica, Università di Cagliari, Via Ospedale 72, 09124 Cagliari (Italy); Demontis, F., E-mail: fdemontis@unica.it [Dip. Matematica, Università di Cagliari, Viale Merello 92, 09123 Cagliari (Italy); Pennisi, S., E-mail: spennisi@unica.it [Dip. Matematica, Università di Cagliari, Via Ospedale 72, 09124 Cagliari (Italy)

    2013-11-15

    Equations determining wave speeds for a model of ultrarelativistic gases are investigated. This model is already present in literature; it deals with an arbitrary number of moments and it was proposed in the context of exact macroscopic approaches in Extended Thermodynamics. We find these results: the whole system for the determination of the wave speeds can be divided into independent subsystems which are expressed by linear combinations, through scalar coefficients, of tensors all of the same order; some wave speeds, but not all of them, are expressed by square roots of rational numbers; finally, we prove that these wave speeds for the macroscopic model are the same of those furnished by the kinetic model.

  17. Can plane wave modes be physical modes in soliton models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldabe, F.

    1995-08-01

    I show that plane waves may not be used as asymptotic states in soliton models because they describe unphysical states. When asymptotic states are taken to the physical there is not T-matrix of O(1). (author). 9 refs

  18. Computational study of nonlinear plasma waves. I. Simulation model and monochromatic wave propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Y.; Crawford, F.W.

    1975-01-01

    An economical low-noise plasma simulation model originated by Denavit is applied to a series of problems associated with electrostatic wave propagation in a one-dimensional, collisionless, Maxwellian plasma, in the absence of magnetic field. The model is described and tested, first in the absence of an applied signal, and then with a small amplitude perturbation. These tests serve to establish the low-noise features of the model, and to verify the theoretical linear dispersion relation at wave energy levels as low as 10 -6 of the plasma thermal energy: Better quantitative results are obtained, for comparable computing time, than can be obtained by conventional particle simulation models, or direct solution of the Vlasov equation. The method is then used to study propagation of an essentially monochromatic plane wave. Results on amplitude oscillation and nonlinear frequency shift are compared with available theories

  19. Ocean wave characteristic in the Sunda Strait using Wave Spectrum Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachmayani, R.; Ningsih, N. S.; Adiprabowo, S. R.; Nurfitri, S.

    2018-03-01

    The wave characteristics including significant wave height and direction, seas and swell in the Sunda Strait are analyzed seasonally to provide marine weather information. This is crucial for establishing secured marine activities between islands of Sumatera and Java. Ocean wave characteristics in the Sunda Strait are simulated for one year (July 1996–June 1977) by using SWAN numerical model. The ocean wave characteristics in the Sunda Strait are divided into three areas of interest; southern, centre and northern part of the Sunda Strait. Despite a weaker local wind, the maximum significant wave height is captured at the southern part with its height of 2.6 m in November compared to other seasonally months. This is associated with the dominated swell from the Indian Ocean contributes on wave energy toward the Sunda Strait. The 2D spectrum analysis exhibits the monthly wave characteristic at southern part that is dominated by seas along the year and swell propagating from the Indian Ocean to the Sunda Strait during December to February (northwest monsoon), May, and November. Seas and swell at northern part of the Sunda Strait are apprehended weaker compared to other parts of the Sunda Strait due to its location is farther from the Indian Ocean.

  20. An Arctic Ice/Ocean Coupled Model with Wave Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    discussed by DRI participants may aid our understanding as well, e.g. those conducted in the Hamburg Ship Model Basin. Our theoretical advances benefit...the project are – continued modifications to the Arctic wide WIM code in association with advances relating to a new ice/ocean model known as... Auckland , December 2014. Montiel, F. Transmission of ocean waves through a row of randomly perturbed circular ice floes. Minisymposium on Wave Motions of

  1. Modeling Stop-and-Go Waves in Pedestrian Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Portz, Andrea; Seyfried, Armin

    2010-01-01

    Several spatially continuous pedestrian dynamics models have been validated against empirical data. We try to reproduce the experimental fundamental diagram (velocity versus density) with simulations. In addition to this quantitative criterion, we tried to reproduce stop-and-go waves as a qualitative criterion. Stop-and-go waves are a characteristic phenomenon for the single file movement. Only one of three investigated models satisfies both criteria.

  2. A Dirac sea pilot-wave model for quantum field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colin, S; Struyve, W

    2007-01-01

    We present a pilot-wave model for quantum field theory in which the Dirac sea is taken seriously. The model ascribes particle trajectories to all the fermions, including the fermions filling the Dirac sea. The model is deterministic and applies to the regime in which fermion number is superselected. This work is a further elaboration of work by Colin, in which a Dirac sea pilot-wave model is presented for quantum electrodynamics. We extend his work to non-electromagnetic interactions, we discuss a cut-off regularization of the pilot-wave model and study how it reproduces the standard quantum predictions. The Dirac sea pilot-wave model can be seen as a possible continuum generalization of a lattice model by Bell. It can also be seen as a development and generalization of the ideas by Bohm, Hiley and Kaloyerou, who also suggested the use of the Dirac sea for the development of a pilot-wave model for quantum electrodynamics

  3. Coupling of high-resolution meteorological and wave models over southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Bertotti

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of RISKMED project, three different high-resolution limited area meteorological models (BOLAM, MOLOCH and WRF have been run over southern Italy for the retrospective analysis of three case studies characterized by strong winds and severe wave conditions in the Ionian, southern Adriatic and southern Tyrrhenian seas. All the models were able to reproduce the main meteorological features of each event.

    The wind fields simulated by the meteorological models and those provided by the ECMWF analysis have been ingested into a wave model (WAM for the hindcast of the main wave parameters. The results have been compared with the observations of three buoys whose measurements were available in the area of interest.

    A remarkable improvement in the representation of the significant wave height came out using the limited area model data with respect to the simulations where the ECMWF analyses were used as forcing. Among the limited area models, the BOLAM-MOLOCH modelling system provided slightly better performances. From the limited set of simulations, the different model predictions came out closer to each other and more skilful in areas where the waves approach the coastline perpendicularly from the open sea.

  4. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  5. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  6. Predictive user modeling with actionable attributes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zliobaite, I.; Pechenizkiy, M.

    2013-01-01

    Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target

  7. Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This report documents the outcome of the assessment.

  8. Metaheuristic optimization approaches to predict shear-wave velocity from conventional well logs in sandstone and carbonate case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emami Niri, Mohammad; Amiri Kolajoobi, Rasool; Khodaiy Arbat, Mohammad; Shahbazi Raz, Mahdi

    2018-06-01

    Seismic wave velocities, along with petrophysical data, provide valuable information during the exploration and development stages of oil and gas fields. The compressional-wave velocity (VP ) is acquired using conventional acoustic logging tools in many drilled wells. But the shear-wave velocity (VS ) is recorded using advanced logging tools only in a limited number of wells, mainly because of the high operational costs. In addition, laboratory measurements of seismic velocities on core samples are expensive and time consuming. So, alternative methods are often used to estimate VS . Heretofore, several empirical correlations that predict VS by using well logging measurements and petrophysical data such as VP , porosity and density are proposed. However, these empirical relations can only be used in limited cases. The use of intelligent systems and optimization algorithms are inexpensive, fast and efficient approaches for predicting VS. In this study, in addition to the widely used Greenberg–Castagna empirical method, we implement three relatively recently developed metaheuristic algorithms to construct linear and nonlinear models for predicting VS : teaching–learning based optimization, imperialist competitive and artificial bee colony algorithms. We demonstrate the applicability and performance of these algorithms to predict Vs using conventional well logs in two field data examples, a sandstone formation from an offshore oil field and a carbonate formation from an onshore oil field. We compared the estimated VS using each of the employed metaheuristic approaches with observed VS and also with those predicted by Greenberg–Castagna relations. The results indicate that, for both sandstone and carbonate case studies, all three implemented metaheuristic algorithms are more efficient and reliable than the empirical correlation to predict VS . The results also demonstrate that in both sandstone and carbonate case studies, the performance of an artificial bee

  9. Assessing the performance of wave breaking parameterizations in shallow waters in spectral wave models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shangfei; Sheng, Jinyu

    2017-12-01

    Depth-induced wave breaking is the primary dissipation mechanism for ocean surface waves in shallow waters. Different parametrizations were developed for parameterizing depth-induced wave breaking process in ocean surface wave models. The performance of six commonly-used parameterizations in simulating significant wave heights (SWHs) is assessed in this study. The main differences between these six parameterizations are representations of the breaker index and the fraction of breaking waves. Laboratory and field observations consisting of 882 cases from 14 sources of published observational data are used in the assessment. We demonstrate that the six parameterizations have reasonable performance in parameterizing depth-induced wave breaking in shallow waters, but with their own limitations and drawbacks. The widely-used parameterization suggested by Battjes and Janssen (1978, BJ78) has a drawback of underpredicting the SWHs in the locally-generated wave conditions and overpredicting in the remotely-generated wave conditions over flat bottoms. The drawback of BJ78 was addressed by a parameterization suggested by Salmon et al. (2015, SA15). But SA15 had relatively larger errors in SWHs over sloping bottoms than BJ78. We follow SA15 and propose a new parameterization with a dependence of the breaker index on the normalized water depth in deep waters similar to SA15. In shallow waters, the breaker index of the new parameterization has a nonlinear dependence on the local bottom slope rather than the linear dependence used in SA15. Overall, this new parameterization has the best performance with an average scatter index of ∼8.2% in comparison with the three best performing existing parameterizations with the average scatter index between 9.2% and 13.6%.

  10. Modeling elastic wave propagation in kidney stones with application to shock wave lithotripsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleveland, Robin O; Sapozhnikov, Oleg A

    2005-10-01

    A time-domain finite-difference solution to the equations of linear elasticity was used to model the propagation of lithotripsy waves in kidney stones. The model was used to determine the loading on the stone (principal stresses and strains and maximum shear stresses and strains) due to the impact of lithotripsy shock waves. The simulations show that the peak loading induced in kidney stones is generated by constructive interference from shear waves launched from the outer edge of the stone with other waves in the stone. Notably the shear wave induced loads were significantly larger than the loads generated by the classic Hopkinson or spall effect. For simulations where the diameter of the focal spot of the lithotripter was smaller than that of the stone the loading decreased by more than 50%. The constructive interference was also sensitive to shock rise time and it was found that the peak tensile stress reduced by 30% as rise time increased from 25 to 150 ns. These results demonstrate that shear waves likely play a critical role in stone comminution and that lithotripters with large focal widths and short rise times should be effective at generating high stresses inside kidney stones.

  11. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...

  12. Geometric models of nested field wave forms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winters, D.

    1984-01-01

    The authors start with two dimensions. ''Maybe there's this thing we ought to call a 'compressible medium' that seems to be around here''. Maybe it's air or ether. There seems to be this compressible medium which has this quality which is that it conveys inertia momentum. And it is compressible. So, given that, and given not much else, they ought to be able to build things like atomic tables and fundamental concepts of physics. The idea is that the principles of creation are principles of superposition of wave shapes. The suggestion is that wave shape archetypally, naturally builds geometry, and that is the clue to the information structure of atoms and molecules and people

  13. Ultrasonic inspection of studs (bolts) using dynamic predictive deconvolution and wave shaping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, D M; Kim, W W; Chung, J G

    1999-01-01

    Bolt degradation has become a major issue in the nuclear industry since the 1980's. If small cracks in stud bolts are not detected early enough, they grow rapidly and cause catastrophic disasters. Their detection, despite its importance, is known to be a very difficult problem due to the complicated structures of the stud bolts. This paper presents a method of detecting and sizing a small crack in the root between two adjacent crests in threads. The key idea is from the fact that the mode-converted Rayleigh wave travels slowly down the face of the crack and turns from the intersection of the crack and the root of thread to the transducer. Thus, when a crack exists, a small delayed pulse due to the Rayleigh wave is detected between large regularly spaced pulses from the thread. The delay time is the same as the propagation delay time of the slow Rayleigh wave and is proportional to the site of the crack. To efficiently detect the slow Rayleigh wave, three methods based on digital signal processing are proposed: wave shaping, dynamic predictive deconvolution, and dynamic predictive deconvolution combined with wave shaping.

  14. Holographic p-wave superconductor models with Weyl corrections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Zhang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We study the effect of the Weyl corrections on the holographic p-wave dual models in the backgrounds of AdS soliton and AdS black hole via a Maxwell complex vector field model by using the numerical and analytical methods. We find that, in the soliton background, the Weyl corrections do not influence the properties of the holographic p-wave insulator/superconductor phase transition, which is different from that of the Yang–Mills theory. However, in the black hole background, we observe that similarly to the Weyl correction effects in the Yang–Mills theory, the higher Weyl corrections make it easier for the p-wave metal/superconductor phase transition to be triggered, which shows that these two p-wave models with Weyl corrections share some similar features for the condensation of the vector operator.

  15. Wave Model Development in Multi-Ion Plasmas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Hee Song

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Near-earth space is composed of plasmas which embed a number of plasma waves. Space plasmas consist of electrons and multi-ion that determine local wave propagation characteristics. In multi-ion plasmas, it is di cult to find out analytic solution from the dispersion relation in general. In this work, we have developed a model with an arbitrary magnetic field and density as well as multi-ion plasmas. This model allows us to investigate how plasma waves behave when they propagate along realistic magnetic field lines, which are assumed by IGRF(International Geomagnetic Reference Field. The results are found to be useful for the analysis of the in situ observational data in space. For instance, if waves are assumed to propagate into the polar region, from the equatorial region, our model quantitatively shows how polarization is altered along earth travel path.

  16. Collapse of the wave function models, ontology, origin, and implications

    CERN Document Server

    2018-01-01

    This is the first single volume about the collapse theories of quantum mechanics, which is becoming a very active field of research in both physics and philosophy. In standard quantum mechanics, it is postulated that when the wave function of a quantum system is measured, it no longer follows the Schrödinger equation, but instantaneously and randomly collapses to one of the wave functions that correspond to definite measurement results. However, why and how a definite measurement result appears is unknown. A promising solution to this problem are collapse theories in which the collapse of the wave function is spontaneous and dynamical. Chapters written by distinguished physicists and philosophers of physics discuss the origin and implications of wave-function collapse, the controversies around collapse models and their ontologies, and new arguments for the reality of wave function collapse. This is an invaluable resource for students and researchers interested in the philosophy of physics and foundations of ...

  17. A Real-Time Nearshore Wave and Current Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    this component of the The Dclfl3D system, developed by Delft Hydraulics nearshorc modeling system was tailored specifically tbr ( htp :,’www.wldelft.nl...Walstra. DA-., 2004. Keeping it simple by using Tolman. ILL., 2002. U.ser Manual and Systrn [Documentation of complex models, The 6th tnt. Conf. an...Stelling, 6.S., Van Kester, J.A.TM., 1994. Otil the approximation of WL D)elft I lvdratifis. 2001. User Manual l)MIUD-FLIAW. horizontal gradients in

  18. Clinical value of liver and spleen shear wave velocity in predicting the prognosis of patients with portal hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Mao, Da-Feng; Zhang, Mei-Wu; Fan, Xiao-Xiang

    2017-12-07

    To explore the relationship of liver and spleen shear wave velocity in patients with liver cirrhosis combined with portal hypertension, and assess the value of liver and spleen shear wave velocity in predicting the prognosis of patients with portal hypertension. All 67 patients with liver cirrhosis diagnosed as portal hypertension by hepatic venous pressure gradient in our hospital from June 2014 to December 2014 were enrolled into this study. The baseline information of these patients was recorded. Furthermore, 67 patients were followed-up at 20 mo after treatment, and liver and spleen shear wave velocity were measured by acoustic radiation force impulse at the 1 st week, 3 rd month and 9 th month after treatment. Patients with favorable prognosis were assigned into the favorable prognosis group, while patients with unfavorable prognosis were assigned into the unfavorable prognosis group. The variation and difference in liver and spleen shear wave velocity in these two groups were analyzed by repeated measurement analysis of variance. Meanwhile, in order to evaluate the effect of liver and spleen shear wave velocity on the prognosis of patients with portal hypertension, Cox's proportional hazard regression model analysis was applied. The ability of those factors in predicting the prognosis of patients with portal hypertension was calculated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The liver and spleen shear wave velocity in the favorable prognosis group revealed a clear decline, while those in the unfavorable prognosis group revealed an increasing tendency at different time points. Furthermore, liver and spleen shear wave velocity was higher in the unfavorable prognosis group, compared with the favorable prognosis group; the differences were statistically significant ( P portal hypertension was significantly affected by spleen hardness at the 3 rd month after treatment [relative risk (RR) = 3.481]. At the 9 th month after treatment, the prognosis

  19. Interacting wave fronts and rarefaction waves in a second order model of nonlinear thermoviscous fluids : Interacting fronts and rarefaction waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anders Rønne; Sørensen, Mads Peter; Gaididei, Yuri Borisovich

    2011-01-01

    A wave equation including nonlinear terms up to the second order for a thermoviscous Newtonian fluid is proposed. In the lossless case this equation results from an expansion to third order of the Lagrangian for the fundamental non-dissipative fluid dynamical equations. Thus it preserves the Hami...... is proposed. The dynamics of the rarefaction wave is approximated by a collective coordinate approach in the energy balance equation. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.......A wave equation including nonlinear terms up to the second order for a thermoviscous Newtonian fluid is proposed. In the lossless case this equation results from an expansion to third order of the Lagrangian for the fundamental non-dissipative fluid dynamical equations. Thus it preserves...... the Hamiltonian structure, in contrast to the Kuznetsov equation, a model often used in nonlinear acoustics. An exact traveling wave front solution is derived from a generalized traveling wave assumption for the velocity potential. Numerical studies of the evolution of a number of arbitrary initial conditions...

  20. Antiferromagnetism and d-wave superconductivity in the Hubbard model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krahl, H.C.

    2007-07-25

    The two-dimensional Hubbard model is a promising effective model for the electronic degrees of freedom in the copper-oxide planes of high temperature superconductors. We present a functional renormalization group approach to this model with focus on antiferromagnetism and d-wave superconductivity. In order to make the relevant degrees of freedom more explicitly accessible on all length scales, we introduce composite bosonic fields mediating the interaction between the fermions. Spontaneous symmetry breaking is reflected in a non-vanishing expectation value of a bosonic field. The emergence of a coupling in the d-wave pairing channel triggered by spin wave fluctuations is demonstrated. Furthermore, the highest temperature at which the interaction strength for the electrons diverges in the renormalization flow is calculated for both antiferromagnetism and d-wave superconductivity over a wide range of doping. This ''pseudo-critical'' temperature signals the onset of local ordering. Moreover, the temperature dependence of d-wave superconducting order is studied within a simplified model characterized by a single coupling in the d-wave pairing channel. The phase transition within this model is found to be of the Kosterlitz-Thouless type. (orig.)

  1. Robust predictions of the interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casten, R.F.; Koeln Univ.

    1994-01-01

    While most recognized for its symmetries and algebraic structure, the IBA model has other less-well-known but equally intrinsic properties which give unavoidable, parameter-free predictions. These predictions concern central aspects of low-energy nuclear collective structure. This paper outlines these ''robust'' predictions and compares them with the data

  2. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  3. Lagrangian modelling of ocean surface waves and synthetic aperture radar wave measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fouques, Sebastien

    2005-07-01

    The present thesis is concerned with the estimation of the ocean wave spectrum from synthetic aperture radar imaging and the modelling of ocean surface waves using the Lagrangian formalism. The first part gives a short overview of the theories of ocean surface waves and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) whereas the second part consists of five independent publications. The first two articles investigate the influence of the radar backscatter model on the SAR imaging of ocean waves. In Article I, Monte Carlo simulations of SAR images of the ocean surface are carried out using a nonlinear backscatter model that include both specular reflection and Bragg scattering and the results are compared to simulations from the classical Hasselmann integral transform (Hasselmann and Hasselmann, 1991). It is shown that nonlinearities in the backscatter model strongly influence the imaging of range-travelling waves and that the former can suppress the range-splitting effect (Bruning et al., 1988). Furthermore, in Article II a database of Envisat-ASAR Wave Mode products co-located with directional wave spectra from the numerical model WAM and which contains range-travelling wave cases only, is set up. The WAM spectra are used as input to several ocean-to-SAR integral transforms, with various real aperture radar (RAR) models and the obtained SAR image cross-spectra are compared to the Envisat-ASAR observations. A first result is that the use of a linear backscatter model leads to a high proportion of non-physical negative backscatter values in the RAR image, as suggested by Schulz-Stellenfleth (2001). Then, a comparison between the observed SAR cross-spectra and the ones simulated through Hasselmann's integral transform reveals that only twenty percents of the observations show a range-splitting effect as strong as in the simulations. A much better agreement is obtained when using the integral transform by Schulz-Stellenfleth (2003), which is based on a nonlinear hackscatter model

  4. Extreme winds and waves for offshore turbines: Coupling atmosphere and wave modeling for design and operation in coastal zones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Bolanos, Rodolfo; Du, Jianting

    modeling for oshore wind farms. This modeling system consists of the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the wave model SWAN and an interface the Wave Boundary Layer Model WBLM, within the framework of coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system COAWST...... (Hereinafter the WRF-WBLM-SWAN model). WBLM is implemented in SWAN, and it calculates stress and kinetic energy budgets in the lowest atmospheric layer where the wave-induced stress is introduced to the atmospheric modeling. WBLM ensures consistent calculation of stress for both the atmospheric and wave......, which can aect the choice of the off-shore wind turbine type. X-WiWa examined various methodologies for wave modeling. The offline coupling system using atmospheric data such as WRF or global reanalysis wind field to the MIKE 21 SW model has been improved with considerations of stability, air density...

  5. Spectral analysis of surface waves method to assess shear wave velocity within centrifuge models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murillo, Carol Andrea; Thorel, Luc; Caicedo, Bernardo

    2009-06-01

    The method of the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) is tested out on reduced scale centrifuge models, with a specific device, called the mini Falling Weight, developed for this purpose. Tests are performed on layered materials made of a mixture of sand and clay. The shear wave velocity VS determined within the models using the SASW is compared with the laboratory measurements carried out using the bender element test. The results show that the SASW technique applied to centrifuge testing is a relevant method to characterize VS near the surface.

  6. Modelling of wave propagation over a submerged sand bar using SWASH

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jishad, M.; Vu, T.T.T.; JayaKumar, S.

    cases The wave heights and wave induced velocities obtained from the model and the laboratory experimental resultsare compared The model without the morphology feedback provided good correlation with the measurements for case of low wave energy, whereas...

  7. Unstructured Spectral Element Model for Dispersive and Nonlinear Wave Propagation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter; Eskilsson, Claes; Bigoni, Daniele

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a new stabilized high-order and unstructured numerical model for modeling fully nonlinear and dispersive water waves. The model is based on a nodal spectral element method of arbitrary order in space and a -transformed formulation due to Cai, Langtangen, Nielsen and Tveito (1998). In...

  8. Self-organized Criticality Model for Ocean Internal Waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Gang; Hou Yijun; Lin Min; Qiao Fangli

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a simple spring-block model for ocean internal waves based on the self-organized criticality (SOC). The oscillations of the water blocks in the model display power-law behavior with an exponent of -2 in the frequency domain, which is similar to the current and sea water temperature spectra in the actual ocean and the universal Garrett and Munk deep ocean internal wave model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 2 (1972) 225; J. Geophys. Res. 80 (1975) 291]. The influence of the ratio of the driving force to the spring coefficient to SOC behaviors in the model is also discussed. (general)

  9. Modelling Acoustic Wave Propagation in Axisymmetric Varying-Radius Waveguides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Willatzen, Morten

    2008-01-01

    A computationally fast and accurate model (a set of coupled ordinary differential equations) for fluid sound-wave propagation in infinite axisymmetric waveguides of varying radius is proposed. The model accounts for fluid heat conduction and fluid irrotational viscosity. The model problem is solved...... by expanding solutions in terms of cross-sectional eigenfunctions following Stevenson’s method. A transfer matrix can be easily constructed from simple model responses of a given waveguide and later used in computing the response to any complex wave input. Energy losses due to heat conduction and viscous...

  10. Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-12-01

    Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

  11. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  12. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  13. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  14. Test particle modeling of wave-induced energetic electron precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, H.C.; Inan, U.S.

    1985-01-01

    A test particle computer model of the precipitation of radiation belt electrons is extended to compute the dynamic energy spectrum of transient electron fluxes induced by short-duration VLF wave packets traveling along the geomagnetic field lines. The model is adapted to estimate the count rate and associated spectrum of precipitated electrons that would be observed by satellite-based particle detectors with given geometric factor and orientation with respect to the magnetic field. A constant-frequency wave pulse and a lightning-induced whistler wave packet are used as examples of the stimulating wave signals. The effects of asymmetry of particle mirror heights in the two hemispheres and the atmospheric backscatter of loss cone particles on the computed precipitated fluxes are discussed

  15. Suppression of Spiral Wave in Modified Orengonator Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Jun; Wang Chunni; Jin Wuyin; Yi Ming

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a spatial perturbation scheme is proposed to suppress the spiral wave in the modified Orengonator model, which is used to describe the chemical reaction in the light-sensitive media. The controllable external illumination Φ is perturbed with a spatial linear function. In our numerical simulation, the scheme is investigated by imposing the external controllable illumination on the space continuously and/or intermittently. The numerical simulation results confirm that the stable rotating spiral wave still can be removed with the scheme proposed in this paper even if the controllable Φ changed vs. time and space synchronously. Then the scheme is also used to control the spiral wave and turbulence in the modified Fitzhugh-Nagumo model. It is found that the scheme is effective to remove the sable rotating and meandering spiral wave but it costs long transient period and intensity of the gradient parameter to eliminate the spiral turbulence

  16. DLCQ and plane wave matrix Big Bang models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blau, Matthias; O'Loughlin, Martin

    2008-09-01

    We study the generalisations of the Craps-Sethi-Verlinde matrix big bang model to curved, in particular plane wave, space-times, beginning with a careful discussion of the DLCQ procedure. Singular homogeneous plane waves are ideal toy-models of realistic space-time singularities since they have been shown to arise universally as their Penrose limits, and we emphasise the role played by the symmetries of these plane waves in implementing the flat space Seiberg-Sen DLCQ prescription for these curved backgrounds. We then analyse various aspects of the resulting matrix string Yang-Mills theories, such as the relation between strong coupling space-time singularities and world-sheet tachyonic mass terms. In order to have concrete examples at hand, in an appendix we determine and analyse the IIA singular homogeneous plane wave - null dilaton backgrounds.

  17. DLCQ and plane wave matrix Big Bang models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blau, Matthias; O'Loughlin, Martin

    2008-01-01

    We study the generalisations of the Craps-Sethi-Verlinde matrix big bang model to curved, in particular plane wave, space-times, beginning with a careful discussion of the DLCQ procedure. Singular homogeneous plane waves are ideal toy-models of realistic space-time singularities since they have been shown to arise universally as their Penrose limits, and we emphasise the role played by the symmetries of these plane waves in implementing the flat space Seiberg-Sen DLCQ prescription for these curved backgrounds. We then analyse various aspects of the resulting matrix string Yang-Mills theories, such as the relation between strong coupling space-time singularities and world-sheet tachyonic mass terms. In order to have concrete examples at hand, in an appendix we determine and analyse the IIA singular homogeneous plane wave - null dilaton backgrounds.

  18. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing

  19. Modeling wave attenuation by salt marshes in Jamaica Bay, New York, using a new rapid wave model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsooli, Reza; Orton, Philip M.; Mellor, George

    2017-07-01

    Using a new rapid-computation wave model, improved and validated in the present study, we quantify the value of salt marshes in Jamaica Bay—a highly urbanized estuary located in New York City—as natural buffers against storm waves. We augment the MDO phase-averaged wave model by incorporating a vegetation-drag-induced energy dissipation term into its wave energy balance equation. We adopt an empirical formula from literature to determine the vegetation drag coefficient as a function of environmental conditions. Model evaluation using data from laboratory-scale experiments show that the improved MDO model accurately captures wave height attenuation due to submerged and emergent vegetation. We apply the validated model to Jamaica Bay to quantify the influence of coastal-scale salt marshes on storm waves. It is found that the impact of marsh islands is largest for storms with lower flood levels, due to wave breaking on the marsh island substrate. However, the role of the actual marsh plants, Spartina alterniflora, grows larger for storms with higher flood levels, when wave breaking does not occur and the vegetative drag becomes the main source of energy dissipation. For the latter case, seasonality of marsh height is important; at its maximum height in early fall, S. alterniflora causes twice the reduction as when it is at a shorter height in early summer. The model results also indicate that the vegetation drag coefficient varies 1 order of magnitude in the study area, and suggest exercising extra caution in using a constant drag coefficient in coastal wetlands.

  20. Numerical Modeling of a Wave Energy Point Absorber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hernandez, Lorenzo Banos; Frigaard, Peter; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2009-01-01

    The present study deals with numerical modelling of the Wave Star Energy WSE device. Hereby, linear potential theory is applied via a BEM code on the wave hydrodynamics exciting the floaters. Time and frequency domain solutions of the floater response are determined for regular and irregular seas....... Furthermore, these results are used to estimate the power and the energy absorbed by a single oscillating floater. Finally, a latching control strategy is analysed in open-loop configuration for energy maximization....

  1. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  2. Coupled wave and surge modelling for the eastern Irish Sea and implications for model wind-stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jennifer M.; Wolf, Judith

    2009-05-01

    We revisit the surge of November 1977, a storm event which caused damage on the Sefton coast in NW England. A hindcast has been made with a coupled surge-tide-wave model, to investigate whether a wave-dependent surface drag is necessary for accurate surge prediction, and also if this can be represented by an optimised Charnock parameter. The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Modelling System-Wave Model (POLCOMS-WAM) has been used to model combined tides, surges, waves and wave-current interaction in the Irish Sea on a 1.85 km grid. This period has been previously thoroughly studied, e.g. Jones and Davies [Jones, J.E., Davies, A.M., 1998. Storm surge computations for the Irish Sea using a three-dimensional numerical model including wave-current interaction. Continental Shelf Research 18(2), 201-251] and we build upon this previous work to validate the POLCOMS-WAM model to test the accuracy of surge elevation predictions in the study area. A one-way nested approach has been set up from larger scale models to the Irish Sea model. It was demonstrated that (as expected) swell from the North Atlantic does not have a significant impact in the eastern Irish Sea. To capture the external surge generated outside of the Irish Sea a (1/9° by 1/6°) model extending beyond the continental shelf edge was run using the POLCOMS model for tide and surge. The model results were compared with tide gauge observations around the eastern Irish Sea. The model was tested with different wind-stress formulations including Smith and Banke [Smith, S.D., Banke, E.G., 1975. Variation of the surface drag coefficient with wind speed. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorology Society, 101(429), 665-673] and Charnock [Charnock, H., 1955. Wind-stress on a water surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 81(350), 639-640]. In order to get a single parameterisation that works with wave-coupling, the wave-derived surface roughness length has been imposed in the surge model

  3. Modeling Waves and Coastal Flooding along the Connecticut Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifuentes-Lorenzen, A.; Howard-Strobel, M. M.; Fake, T.; McCardell, G.; O'Donnell, J.; Asthita, M.

    2015-12-01

    We have used a hydrodynamic- wave coupled numerical model (FVCOM-SWAVE) to simulate flooding at the Connecticut coastline during severe storms. The model employed a one-way nesting scheme and an unstructured grid. The parent domain spanned most of the southern New England shelf and the fine resolution grid covered Long Island Sound (LIS) and extended across the Connecticut coast to the 10m elevation contour. The model results for sea level, current and wave statistics from the parent grid have been tested with data from several field campaigns at different locations spanning the western, central and eastern portions of LIS. Waves are fetch limited and improvements to the model-data comparison required modifications to spectral coefficients in the wave model. Finally, the nested results were validated with two field campaigns in shallow water environments (i.e. New Haven and Old Saybrook). To assess the spatial variability of storm wave characteristics the domain was forced with the hindcast winds obtained from meteorological models (NAM and WRF) for 13 severe weather events that affected LIS in the past 15 years. We have also forced the system with a simulation of Superstorm Sandy in a warmer climate to assess the impact a climate change on the character of flooding. The nested grid is currently being used to map flooding risks under severe weather events including the effects of precipitation on river flow and discharge.

  4. Prediction of Near-Field Wave Attenuation Due to a Spherical Blast Source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jae-Kwang; Park, Duhee

    2017-11-01

    Empirical and theoretical far-field attenuation relationships, which do not capture the near-field response, are most often used to predict the peak amplitude of blast wave. Jiang et al. (Vibration due to a buried explosive source. PhD Thesis, Curtin University, Western Australian School of Mines, 1993) present rigorous wave equations that simulates the near-field attenuation to a spherical blast source in damped and undamped media. However, the effect of loading frequency and velocity of the media have not yet been investigated. We perform a suite of axisymmetric, dynamic finite difference analyses to simulate the propagation of stress waves induced by spherical blast source and to quantify the near-field attenuation. A broad range of loading frequencies, wave velocities, and damping ratios are used in the simulations. The near-field effect is revealed to be proportional to the rise time of the impulse load and wave velocity. We propose an empirical additive function to the theoretical far-field attenuation curve to predict the near-field range and attenuation. The proposed curve is validated against measurements recorded in a test blast.

  5. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  6. Wave climatology of the Indian Ocean derived from altimetry and wave model

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vethamony, P.; Rao, L.V.G.; Kumar, R.; Sarkar, A.; Mohan, M.; Sudheesh, K.; Karthikeyan, S.B.

    are found to be low compared to model values. As expected, central Indian Ocean region is found to have higher waves, generally swells, generated by strong winds prevailing over there in all seasons. In July, the entire Arabian Sea is under the influence...

  7. Travelling waves in models of neural tissue: from localised structures to periodic waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, Hil Gaétan Ellart; Coombes, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    We consider travelling waves (fronts, pulses and periodics) in spatially extended one dimensional neural field models. We demonstrate for an excitatory field with linear adaptation that, in addition to an expected stable pulse solution, a stable anti-pulse can exist. Varying the adaptation strength

  8. Attenuation of surface waves in porous media: Shock wave experiments and modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chao, G.E; Smeulders, D.M.J.; Dongen, van M.E.H.

    2005-01-01

    In this project we conduct experimental and numerical investigations on the attenuation mechanisms of surface waves in poroelastic materials. Viscous dissipation effects are modelled in the framework of Biot's theory. The experiments are performed using a shock tube technique. Quantitative agreement

  9. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

  10. Simulating Freak Waves in the Ocean with CFD Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manolidis, M.; Orzech, M.; Simeonov, J.

    2017-12-01

    Rogue, or freak, waves constitute an active topic of research within the world scientific community, as various maritime authorities around the globe seek to better understand and more accurately assess the risks that the occurrence of such phenomena entail. Several experimental studies have shed some light on the mechanics of rogue wave formation. In our work we numerically simulate the formation of such waves in oceanic conditions by means of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software. For this purpose we implement the NHWAVE and OpenFOAM software packages. Both are non-hydrostatic, turbulent flow solvers, but NHWAVE implements a shock-capturing scheme at the free surface-interface, while OpenFOAM utilizes the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method. NHWAVE has been shown to accurately reproduce highly nonlinear surface wave phenomena, such as soliton propagation and wave shoaling. We conducted a range of tests simulating rogue wave formation and horizontally varying currents to evaluate and compare the capabilities of the two software packages. Then we used each model to investigate the effect of ocean currents and current gradients on the formation of rogue waves. We present preliminary results.

  11. A parametric costing model for wave energy technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This document describes the philosophy and technical approach to a parametric cost model for offshore wave energy systems. Consideration is given both to existing known devices and other devices yet to be conceptualised. The report is complementary to a spreadsheet based cost estimating model. The latter permits users to derive capital cost estimates using either inherent default data or user provided data, if a particular scheme provides sufficient design definition for more accurate estimation. The model relies on design default data obtained from wave energy device designs and a set of specifically collected cost data. (author)

  12. Extreme value predictions and critical wave episodes for marine structures by FORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2007-01-01

    The aim of the present paper is to advocate for a very effective stochastic procedure, based on the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), for extreme value predictions related to wave induced loads. Three different applications will be illustrated. The first deals with a jack-up rig where second...... order stochastic waves are included in the analysis. The second application is parametric roll motions of ships. Finally, the motion of a TLP floating foundation for an offshore wind turbine is analysed taking into account large motions....

  13. Extreme value predictions and critical wave episodes for marine structures by FORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the present paper is to advocate for a very effective stochastic procedure, based on the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), for extreme value predictions related to wave induced loads. Three different applications will be illustrated. The first deals with a jack-up rig where second...... order stochastic waves are included in the analysis. The second application is parametric roll motions of ships. Finally, the motion of a TLP floating foundation for an offshore wind turbine is analysed taking into account large motions....

  14. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  15. Heat waves over Central Europe in regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-05-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have become a powerful tool for exploring impacts of global climate change on a regional scale. The aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of RCMs to reproduce characteristics of major heat waves over Central Europe in their simulations of the recent climate (1961-2000), with a focus on the most severe and longest Central European heat wave that occurred in 1994. We analyzed 7 RCM simulations with a high resolution (0.22°) from the ENSEMBLES project, driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. In observed data (the E-OBS 9.0 dataset), heat waves were defined on the basis of deviations of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) from the 95% quantile of summer Tmax distribution in grid points over Central Europe. The same methodology was applied in the RCM simulations; we used corresponding 95% quantiles (calculated for each RCM and grid point) in order to remove the bias of modelled Tmax. While climatological characteristics of heat waves are reproduced reasonably well in the RCM ensemble, we found major deficiencies in simulating heat waves in individual years. For example, METNOHIRHAM simulated very severe heat waves in 1996, when no heat wave was observed. Focusing on the major 1994 heat wave, considerable differences in simulated temperature patterns were found among the RCMs. The differences in the temperature patterns were clearly linked to the simulated amount of precipitation during this event. The 1994 heat wave was almost absent in all RCMs that did not capture the observed precipitation deficit, while it was by far most pronounced in KNMI-RACMO that simulated virtually no precipitation over Central Europe during the 15-day period of the heat wave. By contrast to precipitation, values of evaporative fraction in the RCMs were not linked to severity of the simulated 1994 heat wave. This suggests a possible major contribution of other factors such as cloud cover and associated downward shortwave radiation. Therefore, a more detailed

  16. A clinical nomogram to predict the successful shock wave lithotripsy of renal and ureteral calculi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesenthal, Joshua D; Ghiculete, Daniela; Ray, A Andrew; Honey, R John D'A; Pace, Kenneth T

    2011-08-01

    Although shock wave lithotripsy is dependent on patient and stone related factors, there are few reliable algorithms predictive of its success. In this study we develop a comprehensive nomogram to predict renal and ureteral stone shock wave lithotripsy outcomes. During a 5-year period data from patients treated at our lithotripsy unit were reviewed. Analysis was restricted to patients with a solitary renal or ureteral calculus 20 mm or less. Demographic, stone, patient, treatment and 3-month followup data were collected from a prospective database. All patients were treated using the Philips Lithotron® lithotripter. A total of 422 patients (69.7% male) were analyzed. Mean stone size was 52.3±39.3 mm2 for ureteral stones and 78.9±77.3 mm2 for renal stones, with 95 (43.6%) of the renal stones located in the lower pole. The single treatment success rates for ureteral and renal stones were 60.3% and 70.2%, respectively. On univariate analysis predictors of shock wave lithotripsy success, regardless of stone location, were age (p=0.01), body mass index (p=0.01), stone size (pstone density (pstone distance (pstone area and skin to stone distance were significant predictors with an AUC of 0.75. For ureteral calculi predictive factors included body mass index and stone size (AUC 0.70). Patient and stone parameters have been identified to create a nomogram that predicts shock wave lithotripsy outcomes using the Lithotron lithotripter, which can facilitate optimal treatment based decisions and provide patients with more accurate single treatment success rates for shock wave lithotripsy tailored to patient specific situations. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Modeling of the attenuation of stress waves in concrete based on the Rayleigh damping model using time-reversal and PZT transducers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Zhen; Huo, Linsheng; Gao, Weihang; Li, Hongnan; Song, Gangbing

    2017-10-01

    Wave-based concrete structural health monitoring has attracted much attention. A stress wave experiences significant attenuation in concrete, however there is a lack of a unified method for predicting the attenuation coefficient of the stress wave. In this paper, a simple and effective absorption attenuation model of stress waves in concrete is developed based on the Rayleigh damping model, which indicates that the absorption attenuation coefficient of stress waves in concrete is directly proportional to the square of the stress wave frequency when the damping ratio is small. In order to verify the theoretical model, related experiments were carried out. During the experiments, a concrete beam was designed in which the d33-model piezoelectric smart aggregates were embedded to detect the propagation of stress waves. It is difficult to distinguish direct stress waves due to the complex propagation paths and the reflection and scattering of stress waves in concrete. Hence, as another innovation of this paper, a new method for computing the absorption attenuation coefficient based on the time-reversal method is developed. Due to the self-adaptive focusing properties of the time-reversal method, the time-reversed stress wave focuses and generates a peak value. The time-reversal method eliminates the adverse effects of multipaths, reflection, and scattering. The absorption attenuation coefficient is computed by analyzing the peak value changes of the time-reversal focused signal. Finally, the experimental results are found to be in good agreement with the theoretical model.

  18. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  19. Travelling Waves in Hybrid Chemotaxis Models

    KAUST Repository

    Franz, Benjamin; Xue, Chuan; Painter, Kevin J.; Erban, Radek

    2013-01-01

    . Bacteria are modelled using an agent-based (individual-based) approach with internal dynamics describing signal transduction. In addition to the chemotactic behaviour of the bacteria, the individual-based model also includes cell proliferation and death

  20. Wave attenuation model for dephasing and measurement of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    An analysis of previous models to simulate inelastic scattering in such systems is presented and a relatively new model based on wave attenuation is introduced. The problem of Aharonov–Bohm (AB) oscillations in conductance of a mesoscopic ring is studied. We show that the conductance is symmetric under flux reversal ...

  1. A water wave model with horizontal circulation and accurate dispersion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cotter, C.; Bokhove, Onno

    We describe a new water wave model which is variational, and combines a depth-averaged vertical (component of) vorticity with depth-dependent potential flow. The model facilitates the further restriction of the vertical profile of the velocity potential to n-th order polynomials or a finite element

  2. Simple model for decay of laser generated shock waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trainor, R.J.

    1980-01-01

    A simple model is derived to calculate the hydrodynamic decay of laser-generated shock waves. Comparison with detailed hydrocode simulations shows good agreement between calculated time evolution of shock pressure, position, and instantaneous pressure profile. Reliability of the model decreases in regions of the target where superthermal-electron preheat effects become comparable to shock effects

  3. Non-homogeneous polymer model for wave propagation and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article concerns certain aspects of four parameter polymer models to study harmonic waves in the non-homogeneous polymer rods of varying density. There are two sections of this paper, in first section, the rheological behaviour of the model is discussed numerically and then it is solved analytically with the help of ...

  4. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 1: Constant wave climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model.First the length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a stability analysis. Next the further evolution from the linear to the fully non-linear regime is described...

  5. Wave-particle duality in a quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudder, S.P.

    1984-01-01

    A quark model based on finite-dimensional quantum mechanics is presented. Observables associated with color, flavor, charge, and spin are considered. Using these observables, quark and baryon Hamiltonians are constructed. Wave-particle dualities in this model are pointed out. (Auth.)

  6. Modeling, robust and distributed model predictive control for freeway networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.

    2016-01-01

    In Model Predictive Control (MPC) for traffic networks, traffic models are crucial since they are used as prediction models for determining the optimal control actions. In order to reduce the computational complexity of MPC for traffic networks, macroscopic traffic models are often used instead of

  7. Deep Predictive Models in Interactive Music

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Charles P.; Ellefsen, Kai Olav; Torresen, Jim

    2018-01-01

    Automatic music generation is a compelling task where much recent progress has been made with deep learning models. In this paper, we ask how these models can be integrated into interactive music systems; how can they encourage or enhance the music making of human users? Musical performance requires prediction to operate instruments, and perform in groups. We argue that predictive models could help interactive systems to understand their temporal context, and ensemble behaviour. Deep learning...

  8. TWO-DIMENSIONAL MODELLING OF ACCIDENTAL FLOOD WAVES PROPAGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorand Catalin STOENESCU

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The study presented in this article describes a modern modeling methodology of the propagation of accidental flood waves in case a dam break; this methodology is applied in Romania for the first time for the pilot project „Breaking scenarios of Poiana Uzului dam”. The calculation programs used help us obtain a bidimensional calculation (2D of the propagation of flood waves, taking into consideration the diminishing of the flood wave on a normal direction to the main direction; this diminishing of the flood wave is important in the case of sinuous courses of water or with urban settlements very close to the minor river bed. In the case of Poiana Uzului dam, 2 scenarios were simulated with the help of Ph.D. Eng. Dan Stematiu, plausible scenarios but with very little chances of actually producing. The results were presented as animations with flooded surfaces at certain time steps successively.

  9. Models for short-wave instability in inviscid shear flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimshaw, Roger

    1999-11-01

    The generation of instability in an invsicid fluid occurs by a resonance between two wave modes, where here the resonance occurs by a coincidence of phase speeds for a finite, non-zero wavenumber. We show that in the weakly nonlinear limit, the appropriate model consists of two coupled equations for the envelopes of the wave modes, in which the nonlinear terms are balanced with low-order cross-coupling linear dispersive terms rather than the more familiar high-order terms which arise in the nonlinear Schrodinger equation, for instance. We will show that this system may either contain gap solitons as solutions in the linearly stable case, or wave breakdown in the linearly unstable case. In this latter circumstance, the system either exhibits wave collapse in finite time, or disintegration into fine-scale structures.

  10. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

  11. 'Oscillator-wave' model: properties and heuristic instances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damgov, Vladimir; Trenchev, Plamen; Sheiretsky, Kostadin

    2003-01-01

    The article considers a generalized model of an oscillator, subjected to the influence of an external wave. It is shown that the systems of diverse physical background, which this model encompasses by their nature, should belong to the broader, proposed in previous works class of 'kick-excited self-adaptive dynamical systems'. The theoretical treatment includes an analytic approach to the conditions for emergence of small and large amplitudes, i.e. weak and strong non-linearity of the system. Derived also are generalized conditions for the transition of systems of this 'oscillator-wave' type to non-regular and chaotic behaviour. For the purpose of demonstrating the heuristic properties of the generalized oscillator-wave model from this point of view are considered the relevant systems and phenomena of the quantized cyclotron resonance and the megaquantum resonance-wave model of the Solar System. We point to a number of other natural and scientific phenomena, which can be effectively analyzed from the point of view of the developed approach. In particular we stress on the possibility for development and the wide applicability of specific wave influences, for example for the improvement and the speeding up of technological processes

  12. A Bingham-plastic model for fluid mud transport under waves and currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chun-rong; Wu, Bo; Huhe, Ao-de

    2014-04-01

    Simplified equations of fluid mud motion, which is described as Bingham-Plastic model under waves and currents, are presented by order analysis. The simplified equations are non-linear ordinary differential equations which are solved by hybrid numerical-analytical technique. As the computational cost is very low, the effects of wave current parameters and fluid mud properties on the transportation velocity of the fluid mud are studied systematically. It is found that the fluid mud can move toward one direction even if the shear stress acting on the fluid mud bed is much smaller than the fluid mud yield stress under the condition of wave and current coexistence. Experiments of the fluid mud motion under current with fluctuation water surface are carried out. The fluid mud transportation velocity predicted by the presented mathematical model can roughly match that measured in experiments.

  13. Mathematical Modeling of Oscillating Water Columns Wave-Structure Interaction in Ocean Energy Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aitor J. Garrido

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Oscillating Water Column (OWC-based power take-off systems are one of the potential solutions to the current energy problems arising from the use of nuclear fission and the consumption of fossil fuels. This kind of energy converter turns wave energy into electric power by means of three different stages: firstly wave energy is transformed into pneumatic energy in the OWC chamber, and then a turbine turns it into mechanical energy and finally the turbogenerator module attached to the turbine creates electric power from the rotational mechanical energy. To date, capture chambers have been the least studied part. In this context, this paper presents an analytical model describing the dynamic behavior of the capture chamber, encompassing the wave motion and its interaction with the OWC structure and turbogenerator module. The model is tested for the case of the Mutriku wave power plant by means of experimental results. For this purpose, representative case studies are selected from wave and pressure drop input-output data. The results show an excellent matching rate between the values predicted by the model and the experimental measured data with a small bounded error in all cases, so that the validity of the proposed model is proven.

  14. Results of fatigue tests and prediction of fatigue life under superposed stress wave and combined superposed stress wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takasugi, Shunji; Horikawa, Takeshi; Tsunenari, Toshiyasu; Nakamura, Hiroshi

    1983-01-01

    In order to examine fatigue life prediction methods at high temperatures where creep damage need not be taken into account, fatigue tests were carried out on plane bending specimens of alloy steels (SCM 435, 2 1/4Cr-1Mo) under superposed and combined superposed stress waves at room temperature and 500 0 C. The experimental data were compared with the fatigue lives predicted by using the cycle counting methods (range pair, range pair mean and zero-cross range pair mean methods), the modified Goodman's equation and the modified Miner's rule. The main results were as follows. (1) The fatigue life prediction method which is being used for the data at room temperature is also applicable to predict the life at high temperatures. The range pair mean method is especially better than other cycle counting methods. The zero-cross range pair mean method gives the estimated lives on the safe side of the experimental lives. (2) The scatter bands of N-bar/N-barsub(es) (experimental life/estimated life) becomes narrower when the following equation is used instead of the modified Goodman's equation for predicting the effect of mean stress on fatigue life. σ sub(t) = σ sub(a) / (1 - Sigma-s sub(m) / kσ sub(B)) σ sub(t); stress amplitude at zero mean stress (kg/mm 2 ) σ sub(B); tensile strength (kg/mm 2 ) σ sub(m); mean stress (kg/mm 2 ) σ sub(a); stress amplitude (kg/mm 2 ) k; modified coefficient of σ sub(B) (author)

  15. Forward modeling of space-borne gravitational wave detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubbo, Louis J.; Cornish, Neil J.; Poujade, Olivier

    2004-01-01

    Planning is underway for several space-borne gravitational wave observatories to be built in the next 10 to 20 years. Realistic and efficient forward modeling will play a key role in the design and operation of these observatories. Space-borne interferometric gravitational wave detectors operate very differently from their ground-based counterparts. Complex orbital motion, virtual interferometry, and finite size effects complicate the description of space-based systems, while nonlinear control systems complicate the description of ground-based systems. Here we explore the forward modeling of space-based gravitational wave detectors and introduce an adiabatic approximation to the detector response that significantly extends the range of the standard low frequency approximation. The adiabatic approximation will aid in the development of data analysis techniques, and improve the modeling of astrophysical parameter extraction

  16. Improvements on Semi-Classical Distorted-Wave model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun Weili; Watanabe, Y.; Kuwata, R. [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan); Kohno, M.; Ogata, K.; Kawai, M.

    1998-03-01

    A method of improving the Semi-Classical Distorted Wave (SCDW) model in terms of the Wigner transform of the one-body density matrix is presented. Finite size effect of atomic nuclei can be taken into account by using the single particle wave functions for harmonic oscillator or Wood-Saxon potential, instead of those based on the local Fermi-gas model which were incorporated into previous SCDW model. We carried out a preliminary SCDW calculation of 160 MeV (p,p`x) reaction on {sup 90}Zr with the Wigner transform of harmonic oscillator wave functions. It is shown that the present calculation of angular distributions increase remarkably at backward angles than the previous ones and the agreement with the experimental data is improved. (author)

  17. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optimal...... steady state is established for terminal constraint model predictive control (MPC). The region of attraction is the steerable set. Existing analysis methods for closed-loop properties of MPC are not applicable to this new formulation, and a new analysis method is developed. It is shown how to extend...

  18. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  19. Advanced Computational Modeling Approaches for Shock Response Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derkevorkian, Armen; Kolaini, Ali R.; Peterson, Lee

    2015-01-01

    Motivation: (1) The activation of pyroshock devices such as explosives, separation nuts, pin-pullers, etc. produces high frequency transient structural response, typically from few tens of Hz to several hundreds of kHz. (2) Lack of reliable analytical tools makes the prediction of appropriate design and qualification test levels a challenge. (3) In the past few decades, several attempts have been made to develop methodologies that predict the structural responses to shock environments. (4) Currently, there is no validated approach that is viable to predict shock environments overt the full frequency range (i.e., 100 Hz to 10 kHz). Scope: (1) Model, analyze, and interpret space structural systems with complex interfaces and discontinuities, subjected to shock loads. (2) Assess the viability of a suite of numerical tools to simulate transient, non-linear solid mechanics and structural dynamics problems, such as shock wave propagation.

  20. Comparison of Transmission Line Methods for Surface Acoustic Wave Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, William; Atkinson, Gary

    2009-01-01

    Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) technology is low cost, rugged, lightweight, extremely low power and can be used to develop passive wireless sensors. For these reasons, NASA is investigating the use of SAW technology for Integrated Vehicle Health Monitoring (IVHM) of aerospace structures. To facilitate rapid prototyping of passive SAW sensors for aerospace applications, SAW models have been developed. This paper reports on the comparison of three methods of modeling SAWs. The three models are the Impulse Response Method (a first order model), and two second order matrix methods; the conventional matrix approach, and a modified matrix approach that is extended to include internal finger reflections. The second order models are based upon matrices that were originally developed for analyzing microwave circuits using transmission line theory. Results from the models are presented with measured data from devices. Keywords: Surface Acoustic Wave, SAW, transmission line models, Impulse Response Method.

  1. Modeling Tides, Planetary Waves, and Equatorial Oscillations in the MLT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, J. G.; Mayr, H. G.; Drob, D. P.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Applying Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization for gravity waves (GW), our 3D model reproduces some essential features that characterize the observed seasonal variations of tides and planetary waves in the upper mesosphere. In 2D, our model also reproduces the large Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) and Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) observed in this region at low latitudes. It is more challenging to describe these features combined in a more comprehensive self consistent model, and we give a progress report that outlines the difficulties and reports some success. In 3D, the GW's are partially absorbed by tides and planetary waves to amplify them. Thus the waves are less efficient in generating the QBO and SAO at equatorial latitudes. Some of this deficiency is compensated by the fact that the GW activity is observed to be enhanced at low latitudes. Increasing the GW source has the desired effect to boost the QBO, but the effect is confined primarily to the stratosphere. With increasing altitude, the meridional circulation becomes more important in redistributing the momentum deposited in the background flow by the GW's. Another factor involved is the altitude at which the GW's originate, which we had originally chosen to be the surface. Numerical experiments show that moving this source altitude to the top of the troposphere significantly increases the efficiency for generating the QBO without affecting much the tides and planetary waves in the model. Attention to the details in which the GW source comes into play thus appears to be of critical importance in modeling the phenomenology of the MLT. Among the suite of numerical experiments reported, we present a simulation that produced significant variations of tides and planetary waves in the upper mesosphere. The effect is related to the QBO generated in the model, and GW filtering is the likely cause.

  2. Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models

    OpenAIRE

    David Ebert

    2006-01-01

    One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...

  3. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  4. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  5. Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

  6. Bounds on quantum collapse models from matter-wave interferometry: calculational details

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toroš, Marko; Bassi, Angelo

    2018-03-01

    We present a simple derivation of the interference pattern in matter-wave interferometry predicted by a class of quantum master equations. We apply the obtained formulae to the following collapse models: the Ghirardi-Rimini-Weber (GRW) model, the continuous spontaneous localization (CSL) model together with its dissipative (dCSL) and non-Markovian generalizations (cCSL), the quantum mechanics with universal position localization (QMUPL), and the Diósi-Penrose (DP) model. We discuss the separability of the dynamics of the collapse models along the three spatial directions, the validity of the paraxial approximation, and the amplification mechanism. We obtain analytical expressions both in the far field and near field limits. These results agree with those already derived in the Wigner function formalism. We compare the theoretical predictions with the experimental data from two recent matter-wave experiments: the 2012 far-field experiment of Juffmann T et al (2012 Nat. Nanotechnol. 7 297-300) and the 2013 Kapitza-Dirac-Talbot-Lau (KDTL) near-field experiment of Eibenberger et al (2013 Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 15 14696-700). We show the region of the parameter space for each collapse model that is excluded by these experiments. We show that matter-wave experiments provide model-insensitive bounds that are valid for a wide family of dissipative and non-Markovian generalizations.

  7. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...

  19. Dynamics of a charged particle in a circularly polarized travelling electromagnetic wave. Self-consistent model for the wave-particle dynamical interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourdier, A.

    1999-01-01

    This work concerns mainly the dynamics of a charged particle in an electromagnetic wave. It is a first step in elaborating a more general model permitting to predict the wave-particle interaction. We show how deriving a first integral gives an idea on how to create an electron current in a cold electron plasma. We present results which can be used to test the 2D and 3D Vlasov-Maxwell codes being built up in CEA-DAM. These codes will allow the calcination of the magnetic field created by an electromagnetic wave like the one due to the inverse Faraday effect when a circularly polarized wave drives the electrons of a plasma into circular orbits. (author)

  20. Wave Transformation Over Reefs: Evaluation of One-Dimensional Numerical Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Demirbilek, Zeki; Nwogu, Okey G; Ward, Donald L; Sanchez, Alejandro

    2009-01-01

    Three one-dimensional (1D) numerical wave models are evaluated for wave transformation over reefs and estimates of wave setup, runup, and ponding levels in an island setting where the beach is fronted by fringing reef and lagoons...

  1. Transient wave behaviour over an underwater sliding hump from experiments and analytical and numerical modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaghan, David P.; Nielsen, Peter [The University of Queensland, School of Civil Engineering, Brisbane (Australia); Ahmadi, Afshin [Kellogg Brown and Root Pty Ltd, Brisbane, QLD (Australia)

    2011-12-15

    Flume measurements of a one-dimensional sliding hump starting from rest in quiescence fresh water indicate that when the hump travels at speed less than the shallow-water wave celerity, three waves emerge, travelling in two directions. One wave travels in the opposite direction to the sliding hump at approximately the shallow-water wave celerity (backward free wave). Another wave travels approximately in step with the hump (forced wave), and the remaining wave travels in the direction of the hump at approximately the shallow-water wave celerity (forward free wave). These experiments were completed for a range of sliding hump speed relative to the shallow-water wave celerity, up to unity of this ratio, to investigate possible derivation from solutions of the Euler equation with non-linear and non-hydrostatic terms being included or excluded. For the experimental arrangements tested, the forced waves were negative (depression or reduced water surface elevation) waves while the free waves were positive (bulges or increased water surface elevation). For experiments where the sliding hump travelled at less than 80% of the shallow-water wave celerity did not include transient behaviour measurements (i.e. when the three waves still overlapped). The three wave framework was partially supported by these measurements in that the separated forward and forced waves were compared to measurements. For the laboratory scale experiments, the forward free wave height was predicted reasonably by the long-wave equation (ignoring non-linear and non-hydrostatic terms) when the sliding hump speed was less than 80% of the shallow-water wave celerity. The forced wave depression magnitude required the Euler equations for all hump speed tested. The long-wave solution, while being valid in a limited parameter range, does predict the existence of the three waves as found in these experiments (forward travelling waves measured quantitatively while the backward travelling waves visually by video

  2. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  3. Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbas, Nikhar [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tom, Nathan M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-06-03

    Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalman filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.

  4. Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan

    2017-09-01

    Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalman filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.

  5. Effective Orthorhombic Anisotropic Models for Wave field Extrapolation

    KAUST Repository

    Ibanez Jacome, Wilson

    2013-05-01

    Wavefield extrapolation in orthorhombic anisotropic media incorporates complicated but realistic models, to reproduce wave propagation phenomena in the Earth\\'s subsurface. Compared with the representations used for simpler symmetries, such as transversely isotropic or isotropic, orthorhombic models require an extended and more elaborated formulation that also involves more expensive computational processes. The acoustic assumption yields more efficient description of the orthorhombic wave equation that also provides a simplified representation for the orthorhombic dispersion relation. However, such representation is hampered by the sixth-order nature of the acoustic wave equation, as it also encompasses the contribution of shear waves. To reduce the computational cost of wavefield extrapolation in such media, I generate effective isotropic inhomogeneous models that are capable of reproducing the first-arrival kinematic aspects of the orthorhombic wavefield. First, in order to compute traveltimes in vertical orthorhombic media, I develop a stable, efficient and accurate algorithm based on the fast marching method. The derived orthorhombic acoustic dispersion relation, unlike the isotropic or transversely isotropic one, is represented by a sixth order polynomial equation that includes the fastest solution corresponding to outgoing P-waves in acoustic media. The effective velocity models are then computed by evaluating the traveltime gradients of the orthorhombic traveltime solution, which is done by explicitly solving the isotropic eikonal equation for the corresponding inhomogeneous isotropic velocity field. The inverted effective velocity fields are source dependent and produce equivalent first-arrival kinematic descriptions of wave propagation in orthorhombic media. I extrapolate wavefields in these isotropic effective velocity models using the more efficient isotropic operator, and the results compare well, especially kinematically, with those obtained from the

  6. Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandrolini, L; Reggiani, U; Ogunsola, A

    2007-01-01

    Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed

  7. Spent fuel: prediction model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almassy, M.Y.; Bosi, D.M.; Cantley, D.A.

    1979-07-01

    The need for spent fuel disposal performance modeling stems from a requirement to assess the risks involved with deep geologic disposal of spent fuel, and to support licensing and public acceptance of spent fuel repositories. Through the balanced program of analysis, diagnostic testing, and disposal demonstration tests, highlighted in this presentation, the goal of defining risks and of quantifying fuel performance during long-term disposal can be attained

  8. Navy Recruit Attrition Prediction Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    have high correlation with attrition, such as age, job characteristics, command climate, marital status, behavior issues prior to recruitment, and the...the additive model. glm(formula = Outcome ~ Age + Gender + Marital + AFQTCat + Pay + Ed + Dep, family = binomial, data = ltraining) Deviance ...0.1 ‘ ‘ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance : 105441 on 85221 degrees of freedom Residual deviance

  9. Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963

  10. Optimal parametric modelling of measured short waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    the importance of selecting a suitable sampling interval for better estimates of parametric modelling and also for better statistical representation. Implementation of the above algorithms in a structural monitoring system has the potential advantage of storing...

  11. Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2010-01-01

    Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70–90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale.

  12. Frontiers in Anisotropic Shock-Wave Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Epoxy IFPT simulated and experimental back surface velocities for 572, 788, and 1015 m/s. The experimental data Kevlar / Epoxy materials recovered after...model development for the Nextel and Kevlar / Epoxy materials subject to hypervelocity impact. They also performed the experimental inverse flyer test...IFPT) for Nextel and Kevlar / Epoxy . Their models were to be macro-mechanically based and suitable for implementation into a hydrocode coupled with EOS

  13. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  14. Finding furfural hydrogenation catalysts via predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strassberger, Z.; Mooijman, M.; Ruijter, E.; Alberts, A.H.; Maldonado, A.G.; Orru, R.V.A.; Rothenberg, G.

    2010-01-01

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes

  15. FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL STRESSES IN ... the transverse residual stress in the x-direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa ... the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

  16. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic

  17. Predicting cyberbullying perpetration in emerging adults: A theoretical test of the Barlett Gentile Cyberbullying Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher; Chamberlin, Kristina; Witkower, Zachary

    2017-04-01

    The Barlett and Gentile Cyberbullying Model (BGCM) is a learning-based theory that posits the importance of positive cyberbullying attitudes predicting subsequent cyberbullying perpetration. Furthermore, the tenants of the BGCM state that cyberbullying attitude are likely to form when the online aggressor believes that the online environment allows individuals of all physical sizes to harm others and they are perceived as anonymous. Past work has tested parts of the BGCM; no study has used longitudinal methods to examine this model fully. The current study (N = 161) employed a three-wave longitudinal design to test the BGCM. Participants (age range: 18-24) completed measures of the belief that physical strength is irrelevant online and anonymity perceptions at Wave 1, cyberbullying attitudes at Wave 2, and cyberbullying perpetration at Wave 3. Results showed strong support for the BGCM: anonymity perceptions and the belief that physical attributes are irrelevant online at Wave 1 predicted Wave 2 cyberbullying attitudes, which predicted subsequent Wave 3 cyberbullying perpetration. These results support the BGCM and are the first to show empirical support for this model. Aggr. Behav. 43:147-154, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Investigation of hurricane Ivan using the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.

    2014-01-01

    The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) model is used to hindcast Hurricane Ivan (2004), an extremely intense tropical cyclone (TC) translating through the Gulf of Mexico. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity in ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled exchange processes are performed to assess the impacts of coupling on the predictions of the atmosphere, ocean, and wave environments during the occurrence of a TC. Modest improvement in track but significant improvement in intensity are found when using the fully atmosphere–ocean-wave coupled configuration versus uncoupled (e.g., standalone atmosphere, ocean, or wave) model simulations. Surface wave fields generated in the fully coupled configuration also demonstrates good agreement with in situ buoy measurements. Coupled and uncoupled model-simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields are compared with both in situ and remote observations. Detailed heat budget analysis reveals that the mixed layer temperature cooling in the deep ocean (on the shelf) is caused primarily by advection (equally by advection and diffusion).

  19. A Coupled Atmospheric and Wave Modeling System for Storm Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Bolanos, R.

    2015-01-01

    to parametrize z0. The results are validated through QuikScat data and point measurements from an open ocean site Ekosk and a coastal, relatively shallow water site Horns Rev. It is found that the modeling system captures in general better strong wind and strong wave characteristics for open ocean condition than......This study aims at improving the simulation of wind and waves during storms in connection with wind turbine design and operations in coastal areas. For this particular purpose, we investigated the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System which couples the Weather...... resolution ranging from 25km to 2km. Meanwhile, the atmospheric forcing data of dierent spatial resolution, with one about 100km (FNL) and the other about 38km (CFSR) are both used. In addition, bathymatry data of diferent resolutions (1arc-minute and 30arc-seconds) are used. We used three approaches...

  20. Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roubíček, Tomáš

    2018-03-01

    The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

  1. Modeling quiescent phase transport of air bubbles induced by breaking waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Fengyan; Kirby, James T.; Ma, Gangfeng

    Simultaneous modeling of both the acoustic phase and quiescent phase of breaking wave-induced air bubbles involves a large range of length scales from microns to meters and time scales from milliseconds to seconds, and thus is computational unaffordable in a surfzone-scale computational domain. In this study, we use an air bubble entrainment formula in a two-fluid model to predict air bubble evolution in the quiescent phase in a breaking wave event. The breaking wave-induced air bubble entrainment is formulated by connecting the shear production at the air-water interface and the bubble number intensity with a certain bubble size spectra observed in laboratory experiments. A two-fluid model is developed based on the partial differential equations of the gas-liquid mixture phase and the continuum bubble phase, which has multiple size bubble groups representing a polydisperse bubble population. An enhanced 2-DV VOF (Volume of Fluid) model with a k - ɛ turbulence closure is used to model the mixture phase. The bubble phase is governed by the advection-diffusion equations of the gas molar concentration and bubble intensity for groups of bubbles with different sizes. The model is used to simulate air bubble plumes measured in laboratory experiments. Numerical results indicate that, with an appropriate parameter in the air entrainment formula, the model is able to predict the main features of bubbly flows as evidenced by reasonable agreement with measured void fraction. Bubbles larger than an intermediate radius of O(1 mm) make a major contribution to void fraction in the near-crest region. Smaller bubbles tend to penetrate deeper and stay longer in the water column, resulting in significant contribution to the cross-sectional area of the bubble cloud. An underprediction of void fraction is found at the beginning of wave breaking when large air pockets take place. The core region of high void fraction predicted by the model is dislocated due to use of the shear

  2. Wave-induced stress and breaking of sea ice in a coupled hydrodynamic discrete-element wave-ice model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Agnieszka

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, a coupled sea ice-wave model is developed and used to analyze wave-induced stress and breaking in sea ice for a range of wave and ice conditions. The sea ice module is a discrete-element bonded-particle model, in which ice is represented as cuboid grains floating on the water surface that can be connected to their neighbors by elastic joints. The joints may break if instantaneous stresses acting on them exceed their strength. The wave module is based on an open-source version of the Non-Hydrostatic WAVE model (NHWAVE). The two modules are coupled with proper boundary conditions for pressure and velocity, exchanged at every wave model time step. In the present version, the model operates in two dimensions (one vertical and one horizontal) and is suitable for simulating compact ice in which heave and pitch motion dominates over surge. In a series of simulations with varying sea ice properties and incoming wavelength it is shown that wave-induced stress reaches maximum values at a certain distance from the ice edge. The value of maximum stress depends on both ice properties and characteristics of incoming waves, but, crucially for ice breaking, the location at which the maximum occurs does not change with the incoming wavelength. Consequently, both regular and random (Jonswap spectrum) waves break the ice into floes with almost identical sizes. The width of the zone of broken ice depends on ice strength and wave attenuation rates in the ice.

  3. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  4. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  5. Competition between spin, charge, and bond waves in a Peierls-Hubbard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venegas, P.A.; Henriquez, C.; Roessler, J.

    1996-01-01

    We study a one-dimensional extended Peierls-Hubbard model coupled to intracell and intercell phonons for a half-filled band. The calculations are made using the Hartree-Fock and adiabatic approximations for arbitrary temperature. In addition to static spin, charge, and bond density waves, we predict intermediate phases that lack inversion symmetry, and phase transitions that reduce symmetry on increasing temperature. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  6. Cross-Shore Numerical Model CSHORE for Waves, Currents, Sediment Transport and Beach Profile Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    still water shoreline. This modification is necessary for a berm that is slanted downward toward the toe of a dune . The wet probability Pw on the...high dune provides storm protection and damage reduction, recreational and economical benefits, and biological habitats for plants and animals. Most...has been used to predict wave overwash of dunes . The hydrodynamic model has also been extended to the wet and dry zone on a permeable bottom for

  7. On observational foundations of models with a wave spiral structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suchkov, A.A.

    1978-01-01

    The validity of the density wave models of the spiral structure is considered. It is shown that the density wave in the Galaxy is doverned by its flat subsystem only, whereas the disk and the halo do not contribute significantly into the wave. It is found that the density wave model of the spiral structure of the Galaxy is confirmed by the value of the pattern speed derived from observational data (Ω = 20-25 km s -1 kpc -1 ). The position and the properties of the outer Lindblad resonance are confirmed by the existence and position of gas ring features in outer regions of our Galaxy and external galaxies. The corotation region in the Galaxy is situated at R=10/12 kpc. Near the corotation region the galactic shock wave is not expected to develop. The observed rapid decrease in the number of H2 regions while moving from R=5 kpc to R=10 kpc confirms this conclusion. The similar consistency between the positions of corotation region and outer resonance and the observed properties of H2 and H1 distribution has also been found for a number of extermal galaxies

  8. Signal extraction and wave field separation in tunnel seismic prediction by independent component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Y.; Jiang, T.; Zhou, Q.

    2017-12-01

    In order to ensure the rationality and the safety of tunnel excavation, the advanced geological prediction has been become an indispensable step in tunneling. However, the extraction of signal and the separation of P and S waves directly influence the accuracy of geological prediction. Generally, the raw data collected in TSP system is low quality because of the numerous disturb factors in tunnel projects, such as the power interference and machine vibration interference. It's difficult for traditional method (band-pass filtering) to remove interference effectively as well as bring little loss to signal. The power interference, machine vibration interference and the signal are original variables and x, y, z component as observation signals, each component of the representation is a linear combination of the original variables, which satisfy applicable conditions of independent component analysis (ICA). We perform finite-difference simulations of elastic wave propagation to synthetic a tunnel seismic reflection record. The method of ICA was adopted to process the three-component data, and the results show that extract the estimates of signal and the signals are highly correlated (the coefficient correlation is up to more than 0.93). In addition, the estimates of interference that separated from ICA and the interference signals are also highly correlated, and the coefficient correlation is up to more than 0.99. Thus, simulation results showed that the ICA is an ideal method for extracting high quality data from mixed signals. For the separation of P and S waves, the conventional separation techniques are based on physical characteristics of wave propagation, which require knowledge of the near-surface P and S waves velocities and density. Whereas the ICA approach is entirely based on statistical differences between P and S waves, and the statistical technique does not require a priori information. The concrete results of the wave field separation will be presented in

  9. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  10. Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Rezaee

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...

  11. Empirical assessment of the validity limits of the surface wave full ray theory using realistic 3-D Earth models

    KAUST Repository

    Parisi, Laura

    2016-02-10

    The surface wave full ray theory (FRT) is an efficient tool to calculate synthetic waveforms of surface waves. It combines the concept of local modes with exact ray tracing as a function of frequency, providing a more complete description of surface wave propagation than the widely used great circle approximation (GCA). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of the FRT approach to model teleseismic long-period surface waveforms (T ∼ 45–150 s) in the context of current 3-D Earth models to empirically assess its validity domain and its scope for future studies in seismic tomography. To achieve this goal, we compute vertical and horizontal component fundamental mode synthetic Rayleigh waveforms using the FRT, which are compared with calculations using the highly accurate spectral element method. We use 13 global earth models including 3-D crustal and mantle structure, which are derived by successively varying the strength and lengthscale of heterogeneity in current tomographic models. For completeness, GCA waveforms are also compared with the spectral element method. We find that the FRT accurately predicts the phase and amplitude of long-period Rayleigh waves (T ∼ 45–150 s) for almost all the models considered, with errors in the modelling of the phase (amplitude) of Rayleigh waves being smaller than 5 per cent (10 per cent) in most cases. The largest errors in phase and amplitude are observed for T ∼ 45 s and for the three roughest earth models considered that exhibit shear wave anomalies of up to ∼20 per cent, which is much larger than in current global tomographic models. In addition, we find that overall the GCA does not predict Rayleigh wave amplitudes well, except for the longest wave periods (T ∼ 150 s) and the smoothest models considered. Although the GCA accurately predicts Rayleigh wave phase for current earth models such as S20RTS and S40RTS, FRT\\'s phase errors are smaller, notably for the shortest wave periods considered (T

  12. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  13. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  14. Full-wave modeling of ICRF waves: global and quasi-local descriptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumont, R. J.

    2007-01-01

    Waves in the Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) undergo significant space dispersion as they propagate in magnetic fusion plasmas, making it necessary to incorporate non-local effects in their physical description. Full-wave codes are routinely employed to simulate ICRF heating experiments in tokamaks. The vast majority of these codes rely on a description of the plasma based on a 'quasi-local' derivation of the dielectric tensor, i.e. assuming that the range of space dispersion remains small compared to the system dimensions. However, non-local effects caused by wide particle orbits are expected to play a significant role in current and future experiments featuring wave-driven fast ions, fusion-born alpha particles... Global formalisms have thus been proposed to include these effects in a more comprehensive fashion. Based on a description of the particle dynamics in terms of action-angle variables, a full-wave code, named EVE, is currently under development. Its first version, presented here, incorporates quasi-local expressions valid to second order in Larmor radius, derived from the more general Hamiltonian formalism. The obtained tool has the advantage of being compatible with the current requirements of integrated modeling, and lends itself to direct comparisons with existing codes

  15. Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanya, J.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.

    2018-03-01

    This article focuses on developing a ground motion prediction equation based on artificial neural network (ANN) technique for shallow crustal earthquakes. A hybrid technique combining genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for training the model. The present model is developed to predict peak ground velocity, and 5% damped spectral acceleration. The input parameters for the prediction are moment magnitude ( M w), closest distance to rupture plane ( R rup), shear wave velocity in the region ( V s30) and focal mechanism ( F). A total of 13,552 ground motion records from 288 earthquakes provided by the updated NGA-West2 database released by Pacific Engineering Research Center are utilized to develop the model. The ANN architecture considered for the model consists of 192 unknowns including weights and biases of all the interconnected nodes. The performance of the model is observed to be within the prescribed error limits. In addition, the results from the study are found to be comparable with the existing relations in the global database. The developed model is further demonstrated by estimating site-specific response spectra for Shimla city located in Himalayan region.

  16. Variational Boussinesq model for simulation of coastal waves and tsunamis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adytia, D.; Adytia, Didit; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.; Tan, Soon Keat; Huang, Zhenhua

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we describe the basic ideas of a so-called Variational Boussinesq Model which is based on the Hamiltonian structure of gravity surface waves. By using a rather simple approach to prescribe the profile of vertical fluid potential in the expression for the kinetic energy, we obtain a set

  17. Non-homogeneous polymer model for wave propagation and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    density are functions of space i.e. non-homogeneous engineering material. .... The Solution of equation Eq. (9) in the form of Eq. (10) can be obtained by taking a phase ..... Viscoelastic Model Applied to a Particular Case .... p m i exp m α α σ σ σ. = −. +. −. (35). The progressive harmonic wave which starts from the end. 0 x =.

  18. The second-order decomposition model of nonlinear irregular waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Zhi Wen; Bingham, Harry B.; Li, Jin Xuan

    2013-01-01

    into the first- and the second-order super-harmonic as well as the second-order sub-harmonic components by transferring them into an identical Fourier frequency-space and using a Newton-Raphson iteration method. In order to evaluate the present model, a variety of monochromatic waves and the second...

  19. FDTD Modelling of Electromagnetic waves in Stratified Medium ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The technique is an adaptation of the finite-difference time domain (FDTD) approach usually applied to model electromagnetic wave propagation. In this paper a simple 2D implementation of FDTD algorithm in mathematica environment is presented. Source implementation and the effect of conductivity on the incident field ...

  20. Gravitational Jaynes–Cummings model beyond the rotating wave

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, the quantum properties of a two-level atom and the cavity-field in the Jaynes–Cummings model with the gravity beyond the rotating wave approximation are investigated. For this purpose, by solving the Schrödinger equation in the interaction picture, the evolving state of the system is found by which the ...

  1. Lake St. Clair: Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    R. A. Luettich, C. Dawson, V. J. Cardone , A. T. Cox, M. D. Powell, H. J. Westerink, and H. J. Roberts. 2010. A high resolution coupled riverine flow...Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Tyler J. Hesser

  2. Innovative technologies to accurately model waves and moored ship motions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    van der Molen, W

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Late in 2009 CSIR Built Environment in Stellenbosch was awarded a contract to carry out extensive physical and numerical modelling to study the wave conditions and associated moored ship motions, for the design of a new iron ore export jetty for BHP...

  3. Revisiting the difference between traveling-wave and standing-wave thermoacoustic engines - A simple analytical model for the standing-wave one

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasui, Kyuichi; Kozuka, Teruyuki; Yasuoka, Masaki; Kato, Kazumi

    2015-11-01

    There are two major categories in a thermoacoustic prime-mover. One is the traveling-wave type and the other is the standing-wave type. A simple analytical model of a standing-wave thermoacoustic prime-mover is proposed at relatively low heat-flux for a stack much shorter than the acoustic wavelength, which approximately describes the Brayton cycle. Numerical simulations of Rott's equations have revealed that the work flow (acoustic power) increases by increasing of the amplitude of the particle velocity (| U|) for the traveling-wave type and by increasing cosΦ for the standing-wave type, where Φ is the phase difference between the particle velocity and the acoustic pressure. In other words, the standing-wave type is a phase-dominant type while the traveling-wave type is an amplitude-dominant one. The ratio of the absolute value of the traveling-wave component (| U|cosΦ) to that of the standing-wave component (| U|sinΦ) of any thermoacoustic engine roughly equals the ratio of the absolute value of the increasing rate of | U| to that of cosΦ. The different mechanism between the traveling-wave and the standing-wave type is discussed regarding the dependence of the energy efficiency on the acoustic impedance of a stack as well as that on ωτα, where ω is the angular frequency of an acoustic wave and τα is the thermal relaxation time. While the energy efficiency of the traveling-wave type at the optimal ωτα is much higher than that of the standing-wave type, the energy efficiency of the standing-wave type is higher than that of the traveling-wave type at much higher ωτα under a fixed temperature difference between the cold and the hot ends of the stack.

  4. Predictability and Spatial Characteristics of New-York-City-Area Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, C.; Horton, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    The origins, characteristics, and predictability of extreme heat waves in the Northeast U.S. are simultaneously examined at multiple scales, using hourly observational data from 1948-2014 and focusing in particular on the region surrounding New York City. A novel definition of heat waves - incorporating both temperature and moisture at hourly resolution - is used to identify 3-to-5-day heat waves whose dynamics are then analyzed from 3 weeks prior to 3 weeks subsequent to the event. Inter-event differences in dynamics such as the strength and position of geopotential-height anomalies; the strength, persistence, and orientation of sea breezes; and the dominant 850-hPa wind azimuth, all of which are filtered via local terrain and land-use to create differences in conditions between events at specific locations. In particular, using composite maps and back trajectories, they are found to play an important role in creating mesoscale differences in low-level moisture content, from one side of the metropolitan area to the other. Evidence is presented supporting the influence of coastline orientation in explaining the differences in the relationships between wind azimuth and temperature & moisture advection between New York City proper and northern New Jersey. Self-organizing maps are employed to classify heat waves based on the small-scale differences in temperature and moisture between events, and the results of this classification are then used in correlations with synoptic- and hemispheric-scale geopotential-height anomalies. Considerable predictability of event type on the small-scale (as well as occurrence of a heat wave of any kind) is found, originating primarily from central Pacific and western Atlantic SSTs.

  5. Shock waves and rarefaction waves in magnetohydrodynamics. Pt. 1: A model system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myong, R.S.; Roe, P.L.

    1997-01-01

    The present study consists of two parts. Here in Part I, a model set of conservation laws exactly preserving the MHD hyperbolic singularities is investigated to develop the general theory of the nonlinear evolution of MHD shock waves. Great emphasis is placed on shock admissibility conditions. By developing the viscosity admissibility condition, it is shown that the intermediate shocks are necessary to ensure that the planar Riemann problem is well-posed. In contrast, it turns out that the evolutionary condition is inappropriate for determining physically relevant MHD, shocks. In the general non-planar case, by studying canonical cases, we show that the solution of the Riemann problem is not necessarily unique - in particular, that it depends not only on reference states but also on the associated internal structure. Finally, the stability of intermediate shocks is discussed, and a theory of their nonlinear evolution is proposed. In Part 2, the theory of nonlinear waves developed for the model is applied to the MHD problem. It is shown that the topology of the MHD Hugoniot and wave curves is identical to that of the model problem. (Author)

  6. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  7. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  8. Latitudinal amplitude-phase structure of MHD waves: STARE radar observations and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilipenko V.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We have developed a numerical model that yields a steady-state distribution of field components of MHD wave in an inhomogeneous plasma box simulating the realistic magnetosphere. The problem of adequate boundary condition at the ionosphere–magnetosphere interface for coupled MHD mode is considered. To justify the model’s assumptions, we have derived the explicit inequality showing when the ionospheric inductive Hall effect can be neglected upon the consideration of Alfven wave reflection from the ionospheric boundaries. The model predicts a feature of the ULF spatial amplitude/phase distribution that has not been noticed by the field line resonance theory: the existence of a region with opposite phase delays on the source side of the resonance. This theoretical prediction is supported by the amplitude-phase latitudinal structures of Pc5 waves observed by STARE radar and IMAGE magnetometers. A gradual decrease in azimuthal wave number m at smaller L-shells was observed at longitudinally separated radar beams.

  9. A flowing plasma model to describe drift waves in a cylindrical helicon discharge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, L.; Hole, M. J.; Corr, C. S.

    2011-01-01

    A two-fluid model developed originally to describe wave oscillations in the vacuum arc centrifuge, a cylindrical, rapidly rotating, low temperature, and confined plasma column, is applied to interpret plasma oscillations in a RF generated linear magnetized plasma [WOMBAT (waves on magnetized beams and turbulence)], with similar density and field strength. Compared to typical centrifuge plasmas, WOMBAT plasmas have slower normalized rotation frequency, lower temperature, and lower axial velocity. Despite these differences, the two-fluid model provides a consistent description of the WOMBAT plasma configuration and yields qualitative agreement between measured and predicted wave oscillation frequencies with axial field strength. In addition, the radial profile of the density perturbation predicted by this model is consistent with the data. Parameter scans show that the dispersion curve is sensitive to the axial field strength and the electron temperature, and the dependence of oscillation frequency with electron temperature matches the experiment. These results consolidate earlier claims that the density and floating potential oscillations are a resistive drift mode, driven by the density gradient. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed physics model of flowing plasmas in the diffusion region away from the RF source. Possible extensions to the model, including temperature nonuniformity and magnetic field oscillations, are also discussed.

  10. Wave propagation model of heat conduction and group speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Long; Zhang, Xiaomin; Peng, Song

    2018-03-01

    In view of the finite relaxation model of non-Fourier's law, the Cattaneo and Vernotte (CV) model and Fourier's law are presented in this work for comparing wave propagation modes. Independent variable translation is applied to solve the partial differential equation. Results show that the general form of the time spatial distribution of temperature for the three media comprises two solutions: those corresponding to the positive and negative logarithmic heating rates. The former shows that a group of heat waves whose spatial distribution follows the exponential function law propagates at a group speed; the speed of propagation is related to the logarithmic heating rate. The total speed of all the possible heat waves can be combined to form the group speed of the wave propagation. The latter indicates that the spatial distribution of temperature, which follows the exponential function law, decays with time. These features show that propagation accelerates when heated and decelerates when cooled. For the model media that follow Fourier's law and correspond to the positive heat rate of heat conduction, the propagation mode is also considered the propagation of a group of heat waves because the group speed has no upper bound. For the finite relaxation model with non-Fourier media, the interval of group speed is bounded and the maximum speed can be obtained when the logarithmic heating rate is exactly the reciprocal of relaxation time. And for the CV model with a non-Fourier medium, the interval of group speed is also bounded and the maximum value can be obtained when the logarithmic heating rate is infinite.

  11. Rockslide and Impulse Wave Modelling in the Vajont Reservoir by DEM-CFD Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, T.; Utili, S.; Crosta, G. B.

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the generation of hydrodynamic water waves due to rockslides plunging into a water reservoir. Quasi-3D DEM analyses in plane strain by a coupled DEM-CFD code are adopted to simulate the rockslide from its onset to the impact with the still water and the subsequent generation of the wave. The employed numerical tools and upscaling of hydraulic properties allow predicting a physical response in broad agreement with the observations notwithstanding the assumptions and characteristics of the adopted methods. The results obtained by the DEM-CFD coupled approach are compared to those published in the literature and those presented by Crosta et al. (Landslide spreading, impulse waves and modelling of the Vajont rockslide. Rock mechanics, 2014) in a companion paper obtained through an ALE-FEM method. Analyses performed along two cross sections are representative of the limit conditions of the eastern and western slope sectors. The max rockslide average velocity and the water wave velocity reach ca. 22 and 20 m/s, respectively. The maximum computed run up amounts to ca. 120 and 170 m for the eastern and western lobe cross sections, respectively. These values are reasonably similar to those recorded during the event (i.e. ca. 130 and 190 m, respectively). Therefore, the overall study lays out a possible DEM-CFD framework for the modelling of the generation of the hydrodynamic wave due to the impact of a rapid moving rockslide or rock-debris avalanche.

  12. Investigation of Wave Energy Converter Effects on Wave Fields: A Modeling Sensitivity Study in Monterey Bay CA.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, Jesse D.; Grace Chang; Jason Magalen; Craig Jones

    2014-08-01

    A n indust ry standard wave modeling tool was utilized to investigate model sensitivity to input parameters and wave energy converter ( WEC ) array deploym ent scenarios. Wave propagation was investigated d ownstream of the WECs to evaluate overall near - and far - field effects of WEC arrays. The sensitivity study illustrate d that b oth wave height and near - bottom orbital velocity we re subject to the largest pote ntial variations, each decreas ed in sensitivity as transmission coefficient increase d , as number and spacing of WEC devices decrease d , and as the deployment location move d offshore. Wave direction wa s affected consistently for all parameters and wave perio d was not affected (or negligibly affected) by varying model parameters or WEC configuration .

  13. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-09-10

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (k(H):k(D)=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R(2)=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model's predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization.

  14. Assessing the Wave Energy Potential of Jamaica, a Greater Antilles Island, through Dynamic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, A. P., Jr.; Dorville, J. F. M.; Taylor, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Globally wave energy has been on the rise as a result of the impacts of climate change and continuous fluctuation in oil prices. The water's inertia provides waves with greater stability than that of other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Jamaica is part of the Greater Antilles Arc and has over 1000 km of coast line with an abundance of shallow water approximately 80% within a 50km band. This configuration provides a wealth of sites for wave exploitation even in minimal wave energy conditions. Aside from harnessing the oceans waves converters can be viewed as a tool for protection of coastal areas against natural marine occurrences. Jamica has done extensive studies where solar, hydro and wind resouces are concerned. However, there has been no studies done to date on the country's wave energy resources.The aim of this study is to bridge this gap by characterizing Jamaica's wave energy resources generating in a half-closed Caribbean Sea using data available from: buoys, altimetric satellite, and numerical model. Available data has been used to assess the available resource on the coastal area for the last 12 years. Statistical analysis of the available energy is determined using the sea state (Hs, Tp and Dir) and the atmospheric forcing (10m-wind, atmospheric pressure, sea-air temperature) relating to the season.The chain of dynamical model is presented (WW3-SWAN-SWASH), allowing for the tracking of the propagation of the wave energy from an offshore region to nearshore zone along with their interaction with areas of shallow depth. This will provide a better assessment of the energy and the quality of the waves closer to the electrical grid.Climate prediction is used to estimate the sea state and wave energy exploitable up to 2100. An analysis of the possible usage of the available coastal resource up to 2100. The main results present small but exploitable resources with seasonal variability in the energy available but not wave direction.

  15. Wave modelling to assess the storm conditions in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

    2014-05-01

    The work proposed herewith presents the results of a ten-year wave hindcast performed in the Black Sea and focused on the storm conditions. A wave modelling system, SWAN based, was implemented in the basin of the Black Sea. Validations have been performed both against in situ and remotely sensed data for the entire ten-year period considered (1999-2008). The wind field provided by NCEP-CFSR (United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) with a spatial resolution of 0.312ºx0.312º and a temporal resolution of 3 hours was considered for forcing the wave model. In statistical terms, the results are in general in line with those provided by similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed seas, the most important factors in increasing the general system reliability being the accuracy and resolution of the wind fields considered. As regards the physical processes, the calibration tests performed show that whitecapping still represents the weak link in deep water wave modelling. The most relevant storm conditions encountered in this ten-year period considered were further analysed. This analysis was performed from the point of view of the intensity, location of occurrence, duration and propagation in the geographical space of the storms. Following the results of the work, the western side of the sea is more energetic and almost each year storms with significant wave heights of about eight meters are encountered in this part of the Black Sea, while in the case of the extreme storms significant wave heights even greater than eleven meters may occur. From this perspective, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information about the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. Moreover, this marine environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and to offshore operations and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce

  16. A robust absorbing layer method for anisotropic seismic wave modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Métivier, L., E-mail: ludovic.metivier@ujf-grenoble.fr [LJK, CNRS, Université de Grenoble, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France); ISTerre, Université de Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France); Brossier, R. [ISTerre, Université de Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France); Labbé, S. [LJK, CNRS, Université de Grenoble, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France); Operto, S. [Géoazur, Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, CNRS, IRD, OCA, Villefranche-sur-Mer (France); Virieux, J. [ISTerre, Université de Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 09 (France)

    2014-12-15

    When applied to wave propagation modeling in anisotropic media, Perfectly Matched Layers (PML) exhibit instabilities. Incoming waves are amplified instead of being absorbed. Overcoming this difficulty is crucial as in many seismic imaging applications, accounting accurately for the subsurface anisotropy is mandatory. In this study, we present the SMART layer method as an alternative to PML approach. This method is based on the decomposition of the wavefield into components propagating inward and outward the domain of interest. Only outgoing components are damped. We show that for elastic and acoustic wave propagation in Transverse Isotropic media, the SMART layer is unconditionally dissipative: no amplification of the wavefield is possible. The SMART layers are not perfectly matched, therefore less accurate than conventional PML. However, a reasonable increase of the layer size yields an accuracy similar to PML. Finally, we illustrate that the selective damping strategy on which is based the SMART method can prevent the generation of spurious S-waves by embedding the source in a small zone where only S-waves are damped.

  17. A robust absorbing layer method for anisotropic seismic wave modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Métivier, L.; Brossier, R.; Labbé, S.; Operto, S.; Virieux, J.

    2014-01-01

    When applied to wave propagation modeling in anisotropic media, Perfectly Matched Layers (PML) exhibit instabilities. Incoming waves are amplified instead of being absorbed. Overcoming this difficulty is crucial as in many seismic imaging applications, accounting accurately for the subsurface anisotropy is mandatory. In this study, we present the SMART layer method as an alternative to PML approach. This method is based on the decomposition of the wavefield into components propagating inward and outward the domain of interest. Only outgoing components are damped. We show that for elastic and acoustic wave propagation in Transverse Isotropic media, the SMART layer is unconditionally dissipative: no amplification of the wavefield is possible. The SMART layers are not perfectly matched, therefore less accurate than conventional PML. However, a reasonable increase of the layer size yields an accuracy similar to PML. Finally, we illustrate that the selective damping strategy on which is based the SMART method can prevent the generation of spurious S-waves by embedding the source in a small zone where only S-waves are damped

  18. Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.

    1994-01-01

    The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in

  19. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  20. Endogenous Crisis Waves: Stochastic Model with Synchronized Collective Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gualdi, Stanislao; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Cencetti, Giulia; Tarzia, Marco; Zamponi, Francesco

    2015-02-01

    We propose a simple framework to understand commonly observed crisis waves in macroeconomic agent-based models, which is also relevant to a variety of other physical or biological situations where synchronization occurs. We compute exactly the phase diagram of the model and the location of the synchronization transition in parameter space. Many modifications and extensions can be studied, confirming that the synchronization transition is extremely robust against various sources of noise or imperfections.

  1. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  2. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  3. Ultrasonic wave propagation in real-life austenitic V-butt welds: Numerical modeling and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannemann, R.; Marklein, R.; Langenberg, K. J.; Schurig, C.; Koehler, B.; Walte, F.

    2000-01-01

    In nondestructive testing the evaluation of austenitic steel welds with ultrasound is a commonly used method. But, since the wave propagation, scattering, and diffraction effects in such complicated media are hardly understood, computer simulations are very helpful to increase the knowledge of the physical phenomena in such samples. A particularly powerful numerical time domain modeling tool is the well established Elastodynamic Finite Integration Technique (EFIT). Recently, EFIT has been extended to simulate elastic waves in inhomogeneous anisotropic media. In this paper, the step-by-step evaluation of ultrasonic wave propagation in inhomogeneous anisotropic media will be described and the results will be validated against measurements. As a simplified model, a V-butt weld with perpendicular grain structure is investigated. The coincidence between the B Scans of the simulation and the measurement of an idealized V-butt weld is remarkable and even effects predicted by theory and simulation - the appearance of two coupled quasi-SV waves - can be observed. As a next step, an improved and more realistic model of the grain orientation inside the V-butt weld is introduced. This model has been implemented in the EFIT code and has been validated against measurements. For this verification, measured and simulated B-Scans for a real-life V-butt weld have been compared and a significant coincidence has been observed. Furthermore, the main pulses in the B-Scans are interpreted by analyzing the snapshot-movies of the wavefronts

  4. Experimentally validated multiphysics computational model of focusing and shock wave formation in an electromagnetic lithotripter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fovargue, Daniel E; Mitran, Sorin; Smith, Nathan B; Sankin, Georgy N; Simmons, Walter N; Zhong, Pei

    2013-08-01

    A multiphysics computational model of the focusing of an acoustic pulse and subsequent shock wave formation that occurs during extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy is presented. In the electromagnetic lithotripter modeled in this work the focusing is achieved via a polystyrene acoustic lens. The transition of the acoustic pulse through the solid lens is modeled by the linear elasticity equations and the subsequent shock wave formation in water is modeled by the Euler equations with a Tait equation of state. Both sets of equations are solved simultaneously in subsets of a single computational domain within the BEARCLAW framework which uses a finite-volume Riemann solver approach. This model is first validated against experimental measurements with a standard (or original) lens design. The model is then used to successfully predict the effects of a lens modification in the form of an annular ring cut. A second model which includes a kidney stone simulant in the domain is also presented. Within the stone the linear elasticity equations incorporate a simple damage model.

  5. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  6. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-01-01

    Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (kH:kD=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R2=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model’s predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization. PMID:23193388

  7. Satellite- versus temperature-derived green wave indices for predicting the timing of spring migration of avian herbivores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shariati Najafabadi, M.; Najafabadi, M.S.; Darvishzadeh, R.; Skidmore, A.K.; Kölzsch, Andrea; Vrieling, A.; Nolet, Bart A.; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Meratnia, Nirvana; Havinga, Paul J.M.; Stahl, Julia; Toxopeus, A.G.

    2015-01-01

    According to the green wave hypothesis, herbivores follow the flush of spring growth of forage plants during their spring migration to northern breeding grounds. In this study we compared two green wave indices for predicting the timing of the spring migration of avian herbivores: the

  8. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  9. The Navy’s Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-15

    7300 Security, Code 1226 Office of Counsel,Code 1008.3 ADOR/Director NCST E. R. Franchi , 7000 Public Affairs (Unclassified/ Unlimited Only...Office as both a global model and relocatable regional model. The wave components of the system are run operationally at production centers at both...utilizes meteorological observations including radiosondes, satellite data, ship reports, and ocean observations with time-dependent global

  10. Computational study on full-wave inversion based on the acoustic wave-equation; Onkyoha hado hoteishiki full wave inversion no model keisan ni yoru kento

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watanabe, T; Sassa, K [Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan); Uesaka, S [Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1996-10-01

    The effect of initial models on full-wave inversion (FWI) analysis based on acoustic wave-equation was studied for elastic wave tomography of underground structures. At present, travel time inversion using initial motion travel time is generally used, and inverse analysis is conducted using the concept `ray,` assuming very high wave frequency. Although this method can derive stable solutions relatively unaffected by initial model, it uses only the data of initial motion travel time. FWI calculates theoretical waveform at each receiver using all of observed waveforms as data by wave equation modeling where 2-D underground structure is calculated by difference calculus under the assumption that wave propagation is described by wave equation of P wave. Although it is a weak point that FWI is easily affected by noises in an initial model and data, it is featured by high resolution of solutions. This method offers very excellent convergence as a proper initial model is used, resulting in sufficient performance, however, it is strongly affected by initial model. 2 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Efficient uncertainty quantification of a fully nonlinear and dispersive water wave model with random inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bigoni, Daniele; Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter; Eskilsson, Claes

    2016-01-01

    A major challenge in next-generation industrial applications is to improve numerical analysis by quantifying uncertainties in predictions. In this work we present a formulation of a fully nonlinear and dispersive potential flow water wave model with random inputs for the probabilistic description...... at different points in the parameter space, allowing for the reuse of existing simulation software. The choice of the applied methods is driven by the number of uncertain input parameters and by the fact that finding the solution of the considered model is computationally intensive. We revisit experimental...... benchmarks often used for validation of deterministic water wave models. Based on numerical experiments and assumed uncertainties in boundary data, our analysis reveals that some of the known discrepancies from deterministic simulation in comparison with experimental measurements could be partially explained...

  12. Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors

    OpenAIRE

    GÖKÇE, Dila

    2011-01-01

    This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...

  13. Modeling of a Surface Acoustic Wave Strain Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, W. C.; Atkinson, Gary M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA Langley Research Center is investigating Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) sensor technology for harsh environments aimed at aerospace applications. To aid in development of sensors a model of a SAW strain sensor has been developed. The new model extends the modified matrix method to include the response of Orthogonal Frequency Coded (OFC) reflectors and the response of SAW devices to strain. These results show that the model accurately captures the strain response of a SAW sensor on a Langasite substrate. The results of the model of a SAW Strain Sensor on Langasite are presented

  14. Analysis of elastic wave propagation through anisotropic stainless steel using elastodynamic FEM and ultrasonic beam model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Seog Je; Jeong, Hyun Jo

    1999-01-01

    The wave propagation problem in anisotropic media is modeled by the Gauss-Hermite beam and tile finite element method and their results are compared. Gauss-Hermite mettled is computationally fast and simple, and explicitly incorporates beam spreading. In the 2-D model problem chosen, the ultrasonic beam leaves a transducer, propagates through a layer of ferritic steel and through a planar interface into a region of columnar cast stainless steel with two directions. After propagation to a reference plane, comparison .if made of the time-domain waveforms predicted by tile two models. The predictions of the two models are found to be in good agreement near the center of the beam, with deviations developing as one moves away from tile central ray. These are interpreted to be a consequence of the Fresnel approximation, made in the Gauss-Hermite model.

  15. A Full-wave Model for Wave Propagation and Dissipation in the Inner Magnetosphere Using the Finite Element Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeo, Ernest; Johnson, Jay R.; Kim, Eun-Hwa; Phillips, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    A wide variety of plasma waves play an important role in the energization and loss of particles in the inner magnetosphere. Our ability to understand and model wave-particle interactions in this region requires improved knowledge of the spatial distribution and properties of these waves as well as improved understanding of how the waves depend on changes in solar wind forcing and/or geomagnetic activity. To this end, we have developed a two-dimensional, finite element code that solves the full wave equations in global magnetospheric geometry. The code describes three-dimensional wave structure including mode conversion when ULF, EMIC, and whistler waves are launched in a two-dimensional axisymmetric background plasma with general magnetic field topology. We illustrate the capabilities of the code by examining the role of plasmaspheric plumes on magnetosonic wave propagation; mode conversion at the ion-ion and Alfven resonances resulting from external, solar wind compressions; and wave structure and mode conversion of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves launched in the equatorial magnetosphere, which propagate along the magnetic field lines toward the ionosphere. We also discuss advantages of the finite element method for resolving resonant structures, and how the model may be adapted to include nonlocal kinetic effects.

  16. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  17. Wave refraction and prediction of breaker parameters along the Kerala Coast, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sajeev, R.; Chandramohan, P.; SanilKumar, V.

    significantly from place to place due to wave refraction and shoaling. The covergence and divergence of wave energy induce non-uniform distribution of wave heights during the monsoon period. Ezhimala promontory causes waves to refract considerably along...

  18. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  19. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. New approach for T-wave peak detection and T-wave end location in 12-lead paced ECG signals based on a mathematical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madeiro, João P V; Nicolson, William B; Cortez, Paulo C; Marques, João A L; Vázquez-Seisdedos, Carlos R; Elangovan, Narmadha; Ng, G Andre; Schlindwein, Fernando S

    2013-08-01

    This paper presents an innovative approach for T-wave peak detection and subsequent T-wave end location in 12-lead paced ECG signals based on a mathematical model of a skewed Gaussian function. Following the stage of QRS segmentation, we establish search windows using a number of the earliest intervals between each QRS offset and subsequent QRS onset. Then, we compute a template based on a Gaussian-function, modified by a mathematical procedure to insert asymmetry, which models the T-wave. Cross-correlation and an approach based on the computation of Trapezium's area are used to locate, respectively, the peak and end point of each T-wave throughout the whole raw ECG signal. For evaluating purposes, we used a database of high resolution 12-lead paced ECG signals, recorded from patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy (ICM) in the University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, UK, and the well-known QT database. The average T-wave detection rates, sensitivity and positive predictivity, were both equal to 99.12%, for the first database, and, respectively, equal to 99.32% and 99.47%, for QT database. The average time errors computed for T-wave peak and T-wave end locations were, respectively, -0.38±7.12 ms and -3.70±15.46 ms, for the first database, and 1.40±8.99 ms and 2.83±15.27 ms, for QT database. The results demonstrate the accuracy, consistency and robustness of the proposed method for a wide variety of T-wave morphologies studied. Copyright © 2012 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Non-invasive prediction of catheter ablation outcome in persistent atrial fibrillation by fibrillatory wave amplitude computation in multiple electrocardiogram leads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarzoso, Vicente; Latcu, Decebal G; Hidalgo-Muñoz, Antonio R; Meo, Marianna; Meste, Olivier; Popescu, Irina; Saoudi, Nadir

    2016-12-01

    Catheter ablation (CA) of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) is challenging, and reported results are capable of improvement. A better patient selection for the procedure could enhance its success rate while avoiding the risks associated with ablation, especially for patients with low odds of favorable outcome. CA outcome can be predicted non-invasively by atrial fibrillatory wave (f-wave) amplitude, but previous works focused mostly on manual measures in single electrocardiogram (ECG) leads only. To assess the long-term prediction ability of f-wave amplitude when computed in multiple ECG leads. Sixty-two patients with persistent AF (52 men; mean age 61.5±10.4years) referred for CA were enrolled. A standard 1-minute 12-lead ECG was acquired before the ablation procedure for each patient. F-wave amplitudes in different ECG leads were computed by a non-invasive signal processing algorithm, and combined into a mutivariate prediction model based on logistic regression. During an average follow-up of 13.9±8.3months, 47 patients had no AF recurrence after ablation. A lead selection approach relying on the Wald index pointed to I, V1, V2 and V5 as the most relevant ECG leads to predict jointly CA outcome using f-wave amplitudes, reaching an area under the curve of 0.854, and improving on single-lead amplitude-based predictors. Analysing the f-wave amplitude in several ECG leads simultaneously can significantly improve CA long-term outcome prediction in persistent AF compared with predictors based on single-lead measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  2. PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Silveira Amaro

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.

  3. Alcator C-Mod predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pankin, Alexei; Bateman, Glenn; Kritz, Arnold; Greenwald, Martin; Snipes, Joseph; Fredian, Thomas

    2001-01-01

    Predictive simulations for the Alcator C-mod tokamak [I. Hutchinson et al., Phys. Plasmas 1, 1511 (1994)] are carried out using the BALDUR integrated modeling code [C. E. Singer et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 49, 275 (1988)]. The results are obtained for temperature and density profiles using the Multi-Mode transport model [G. Bateman et al., Phys. Plasmas 5, 1793 (1998)] as well as the mixed-Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model [M. Erba et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 39, 261 (1997)]. The simulated discharges are characterized by very high plasma density in both low and high modes of confinement. The predicted profiles for each of the transport models match the experimental data about equally well in spite of the fact that the two models have different dimensionless scalings. Average relative rms deviations are less than 8% for the electron density profiles and 16% for the electron and ion temperature profiles

  4. Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schlaudraff KU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Kai-Uwe Schlaudraff,1 Maren C Kiessling,2 Nikolaus BM Császár,2 Christoph Schmitz21Concept Clinic, Geneva, Switzerland; 2Department of Anatomy II, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Munich, GermanyBackground: Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predicted by the patient's individual cellulite grade at baseline, individual patient age, body mass index (BMI, weight, and/or height.Methods: Fourteen Caucasian females with cellulite were enrolled in a prospective, single-center, randomized, open-label Phase II study. The mean (± standard error of the mean cellulite grade at baseline was 2.5±0.09 and mean BMI was 22.8±1.17. All patients were treated with radial extracorporeal shock waves using the Swiss DolorClast® device (Electro Medical Systems, S.A., Nyon, Switzerland. Patients were treated unilaterally with 2 weekly treatments for 4 weeks on a randomly selected side (left or right, totaling eight treatments on the selected side. Treatment was performed at 3.5–4.0 bar, with 15,000 impulses per session applied at 15 Hz. Impulses were homogeneously distributed over the posterior thigh and buttock area (resulting in 7,500 impulses per area. Treatment success was evaluated after the last treatment and 4 weeks later by clinical examination, photographic documentation, contact thermography, and patient satisfaction questionnaires.Results: The mean cellulite grade improved from 2.5±0.09 at baseline to 1.57±0.18 after the last treatment (ie, mean δ-1 was 0.93 cellulite grades and 1.68±0.16 at follow-up (ie, mean δ-2 was 0.82 cellulite grades. Compared with baseline, no patient's condition worsened, the treatment was well tolerated, and no unwanted side effects were observed. No statistically significant (ie, P<0

  5. Initiation and dynamics of a spiral wave around an ionic heterogeneity in a model for human cardiac tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defauw, Arne; Dawyndt, Peter; Panfilov, Alexander V

    2013-12-01

    In relation to cardiac arrhythmias, heterogeneity of cardiac tissue is one of the most important factors underlying the onset of spiral waves and determining their type. In this paper, we numerically model heterogeneity of realistic size and value and study formation and dynamics of spiral waves around such heterogeneity. We find that the only sustained pattern obtained is a single spiral wave anchored around the heterogeneity. Dynamics of an anchored spiral wave depend on the extent of heterogeneity, and for certain heterogeneity size, we find abrupt regional increase in the period of excitation occurring as a bifurcation. We study factors determining spatial distribution of excitation periods of anchored spiral waves and discuss consequences of such dynamics for cardiac arrhythmias and possibilities for experimental testings of our predictions.

  6. Nonlinear plasma wave models in 3D fluid simulations of laser-plasma interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Thomas; Berger, Richard; Arrighi, Bill; Langer, Steve; Banks, Jeffrey; Brunner, Stephan

    2017-10-01

    Simulations of laser-plasma interaction (LPI) in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) conditions require multi-mm spatial scales due to the typical laser beam size and durations of order 100 ps in order for numerical laser reflectivities to converge. To be computationally achievable, these scales necessitate a fluid-like treatment of light and plasma waves with a spatial grid size on the order of the light wave length. Plasma waves experience many nonlinear phenomena not naturally described by a fluid treatment, such as frequency shifts induced by trapping, a nonlinear (typically suppressed) Landau damping, and mode couplings leading to instabilities that can cause the plasma wave to decay rapidly. These processes affect the onset and saturation of stimulated Raman and Brillouin scattering, and are of direct interest to the modeling and prediction of deleterious LPI in ICF. It is not currently computationally feasible to simulate these Debye length-scale phenomena in 3D across experimental scales. Analytically-derived and/or numerically benchmarked models of processes occurring at scales finer than the fluid simulation grid offer a path forward. We demonstrate the impact of a range of kinetic processes on plasma reflectivity via models included in the LPI simulation code pF3D. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  7. P-wave characteristics on routine preoperative electrocardiogram improve prediction of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation in cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Jim K; Lobato, Robert L; Pinesett, Andre; Maxwell, Bryan G; Mora-Mangano, Christina T; Perez, Marco V

    2014-12-01

    To test the hypothesis that including preoperative electrocardiogram (ECG) characteristics with clinical variables significantly improves the new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation prediction model. Retrospective analysis. Single-center university hospital. Five hundred twenty-six patients, ≥ 18 years of age, who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, aortic valve replacement, mitral valve replacement/repair, or a combination of valve surgery and coronary artery bypass grafting requiring cardiopulmonary bypass. Retrospective review of medical records. Baseline characteristics and cardiopulmonary bypass times were collected. Digitally-measured timing and voltages from preoperative electrocardiograms were extracted. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was defined as atrial fibrillation requiring therapeutic intervention. Two hundred eight (39.5%) patients developed postoperative atrial fibrillation. Clinical predictors were age, ejection fractionelectrocardiogram variables to the prediction model with only clinical predictors significantly improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, from 0.71 to 0.78 (p<0.01). Overall net reclassification improvement was 0.059 (p = 0.09). Among those who developed postoperative atrial fibrillation, the net reclassification improvement was 0.063 (p = 0.03). Several p-wave characteristics are independently associated with postoperative atrial fibrillation. Addition of these parameters improves the postoperative atrial fibrillation prediction model. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeling and Simulation of a Wave Energy Converter INWAVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Kwan Song

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available INGINE Inc. developed its own wave energy converter (WEC named INWAVE and has currently installed three prototype modules in Jeju Island, Korea. This device is an on-shore-type WEC that consists of a buoy, pulleys fixed to the sea-floor and a power take off module (PTO. Three ropes are moored tightly on the bottom of the buoy and connected to the PTO via the pulleys, which are moving back and forth according to the motion of the buoy. Since the device can harness wave energy from all six degrees of movement of the buoy, it is possible to extract energy efficiently even under low energy density conditions provided in the coastal areas. In the PTO module, the ratchet gears convert the reciprocating movement of the rope drum into a uni-directional rotation and determine the transmission of power from the relation of the angular velocities between the rope drum and the generator. In this process, the discontinuity of the power transmission occurs and causes the modeling divergence. Therefore, we introduce the concept of the virtual torsion spring in order to prevent the impact error in the ratchet gear module, thereby completing the PTO modeling. In this paper, we deal with dynamic analysis in the time domain, based on Newtonian mechanics and linear wave theory. We derive the combined dynamics of the buoy and PTO modules via geometric relation between the buoy and mooring ropes, then suggest the ratchet gear mechanism with the virtual torsion spring element to reduce the dynamic errors during the phase transitions. Time domain simulation is carried out under irregular waves that reflect the actual wave states of the installation area, and we evaluate the theoretical performance using the capture width ratio.

  9. Real-time shear wave elastography may predict autoimmune thyroid disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlad, Mihaela; Golu, Ioana; Bota, Simona; Vlad, Adrian; Timar, Bogdan; Timar, Romulus; Sporea, Ioan

    2015-05-01

    To evaluate and compare the values of the elasticity index as measured by shear wave elastography in healthy subjects and in patients with autoimmune thyroid disease, in order to establish if this investigation can predict the occurrence of autoimmune thyroid disease. A total of 104 cases were included in the study group: 91 women (87.5%), out of which 52 (50%) with autoimmune thyroid disease diagnosed by specific tests and 52 (50%) healthy volunteers, matched for age and gender. For all the subjects, three measurements were performed on each thyroid lobe and a mean value was calculated. The data were expressed in kPa. The investigation was performed with an Aixplorer system (SuperSonic Imagine, France), using a linear high-resolution 15-4 MHz transducer. The mean value for the elasticity index was similar in the right and the left thyroid lobes, both in normal subjects and in patients with autoimmune thyroid disease: 19.6 ± 6.6 vs. 19.5 ± 6.8 kPa, p = 0.92, and 26.6 ± 10.0 vs. 25.8 ± 11.7 kPa, p = 0.71, respectively. This parameter was significantly higher in patients with autoimmune thyroid disease than in controls (p < 0.001). For a cut-off value of 22.3 kPa, which resulted in the highest sum of sensitivity and specificity, the elasticity index assessed by shear wave elastography had a sensitivity of 59.6% and a specificity of 76.9% (AUROC = 0.71; p < 0.001) for predicting the presence of autoimmune thyroid disease. Quantitative elasticity index measured by shear wave elastography was significantly higher in autoimmune thyroid disease than in normal thyroid parenchyma and may predict the presence of autoimmune thyroid disease.

  10. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  11. Modelling and Experiments of a Standing Wave Piezomotor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, B.; Helbo, Jan; Blanke, Mogens

    The paper presents a new contact model for standing wave piezomotors. The contact model is based on the Hertz theory for normal contact deformations and elastic contact theory for tangential loads. The contact theory is simplified into a model with discrete springs for normal and tangential loads...... which allows the calculation of slip/stick transitions. Simulations show that tip trajectories in general cannot be prescribed. The paper presents the principle of a bending resonator. Experiments indicate that the bending vibrations are too small to generate rotor rotations. However, due to unintended...

  12. Modelling and Experiments of a Standing Wave Piezomotor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helbo, Jan; Andersen, Brian; Blanke, Mogens

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a new contact model for standing wave piezomotors. The contact model is based on the Hertz theory for normal contact deformations and elastic contact theory for tangential loads. The contact theory is simplified into a model with discrete springs for normal and tangential loads...... which allows the calculation of slip/stick transitions. Simulations show that tip trajectories in general cannot be prescribed. The paper presents the principle of a bending resonator. Experiments indicate that the bending vibrations are too small to generate rotor rotations. However, due to unintended...

  13. A particle model of rolling grain ripples under waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste

    2001-01-01

    A simple model for the formation of rolling grain ripples on a flat sand bed by the oscillatory flow generated by a surface wave is presented. An equation of motion is derived for the individual ripples, seen as "particles," on the otherwise flat bed. The model accounts for the initial appearance...... of the ripples, the subsequent coarsening of the ripples, and the final equilibrium state. The model is related to the physical parameters of the problem, and an analytical approximation for the equilibrium spacing of the ripples is developed. It is found that the spacing between the ripples scales...

  14. Prediction and measurement of the electromagnetic environment of high-power medium-wave and short-wave broadcast antennas in far field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhanghong; Wang, Qun; Ji, Zhijiang; Shi, Meiwu; Hou, Guoyan; Tan, Danjun; Wang, Pengqi; Qiu, Xianbo

    2014-12-01

    With the increasing city size, high-power electromagnetic radiation devices such as high-power medium-wave (MW) and short-wave (SW) antennas have been inevitably getting closer and closer to buildings, which resulted in the pollution of indoor electromagnetic radiation becoming worsened. To avoid such radiation exceeding the exposure limits by national standards, it is necessary to predict and survey the electromagnetic radiation by MW and SW antennas before constructing the buildings. In this paper, a modified prediction method for the far-field electromagnetic radiation is proposed and successfully applied to predict the electromagnetic environment of an area close to a group of typical high-power MW and SW wave antennas. Different from currently used simplified prediction method defined in the Radiation Protection Management Guidelines (H J/T 10. 3-1996), the new method in this article makes use of more information such as antennas' patterns to predict the electromagnetic environment. Therefore, it improves the prediction accuracy significantly by the new feature of resolution at different directions. At the end of this article, a comparison between the prediction data and the measured results is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new method. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. On accuracy of the wave finite element predictions of wavenumbers and power flow: A benchmark problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Søe-Knudsen, Alf; Sorokin, Sergey

    2011-06-01

    This rapid communication is concerned with justification of the 'rule of thumb', which is well known to the community of users of the finite element (FE) method in dynamics, for the accuracy assessment of the wave finite element (WFE) method. An explicit formula linking the size of a window in the dispersion diagram, where the WFE method is trustworthy, with the coarseness of a FE mesh employed is derived. It is obtained by the comparison of the exact Pochhammer-Chree solution for an elastic rod having the circular cross-section with its WFE approximations. It is shown that the WFE power flow predictions are also valid within this window.

  16. Developing regionalized models of lithospheric thickness and velocity structure across Eurasia and the Middle East from jointly inverting P-wave and S-wave receiver functions with Rayleigh wave group and phase velocities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Julia, J; Nyblade, A; Hansen, S; Rodgers, A; Matzel, E

    2009-07-06

    In this project, we are developing models of lithospheric structure for a wide variety of tectonic regions throughout Eurasia and the Middle East by regionalizing 1D velocity models obtained by jointly inverting P-wave and S-wave receiver functions with Rayleigh wave group and phase velocities. We expect the regionalized velocity models will improve our ability to predict travel-times for local and regional phases, such as Pg, Pn, Sn and Lg, as well as travel-times for body-waves at upper mantle triplication distances in both seismic and aseismic regions of Eurasia and the Middle East. We anticipate the models will help inform and strengthen ongoing and future efforts within the NNSA labs to develop 3D velocity models for Eurasia and the Middle East, and will assist in obtaining model-based predictions where no empirical data are available and for improving locations from sparse networks using kriging. The codes needed to conduct the joint inversion of P-wave receiver functions (PRFs), S-wave receiver functions (SRFs), and dispersion velocities have already been assembled as part of ongoing research on lithospheric structure in Africa. The methodology has been tested with synthetic 'data' and case studies have been investigated with data collected at an open broadband stations in South Africa. PRFs constrain the size and S-P travel-time of seismic discontinuities in the crust and uppermost mantle, SRFs constrain the size and P-S travel-time of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and dispersion velocities constrain average S-wave velocity within frequency-dependent depth-ranges. Preliminary results show that the combination yields integrated 1D velocity models local to the recording station, where the discontinuities constrained by the receiver functions are superimposed to a background velocity model constrained by the dispersion velocities. In our first year of this project we will (i) generate 1D velocity models for open broadband seismic stations

  17. Improved bag models of P-wave baryons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Fan; Wong Chunwa

    1988-01-01

    Problems in two previous bag-model calculations of P-wave baryon states are pointed out. The two-body matrix elements used in one of these models, the Myhrer-Wroldsen bag model, have now been revised and corrected by Myhrer, Umino and Wroldsen. We use their corrected matrix elements to construct simple bag models in which baryon masses are stabilized against collapse by using a finite pion size. We find that baryon masses in both ground and excited states can be fitted with the same model parameters. Models with small-bag baryons of the type proposed by Brown and Rho are then obtained. Typical bag radii are 0.5 fm for N, 0.6 fm for Δ and 0.7 fm for P-wave nonstrange baryons. In these models, the mixing angles are still unsatisfactory, while inadequacy in the treatment of center-of-mass motion found in an earlier paper persists. These results are briefly discussed. especially in connection with skyrmion models. (orig.)

  18. Comparison of two ordinal prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

    2015-01-01

    system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....

  19. Modelling performance of a small array of Wave Energy Converters: Comparison of Spectral and Boussinesq models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenwood, Charles; Christie, David; Venugopal, Vengatesan; Morrison, James; Vogler, Arne

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents results from numerical simulations of three Oscillating Wave Surge Converters (OWSC) using two different computational models, Boussinesq wave (BW) and Spectral wave (SW) of the commercial software suite MIKE. The simulation of a shallow water wave farm applies alternative methods for implementing a frequency dependent absorption in both the BW and SW models, where energy extraction is based on experimental data from a scaled Oyster device. The effects of including wave diffraction within the SW model is tested by using diffraction smoothing steps and various directional wave conditions. The results of this study reveal important information on the models realms of validity that is heavily dependent on the incident sea state and the removal of diffraction for the SW model. This yields an increase in simulation accuracy for far-field disturbances when diffraction is entirely removed. This highlights specific conditions where the BW and SW model may thrive but also regions where reduced performance is observed. The results presented in this paper have not been validated with real sea site wave device array performance, however, the methodology described would be useful to device developers to arrive at preliminary decisions on array configurations and to minimise negative environmental impacts.

  20. Influence of Wind Model Performance on Wave Forecasts of the Naval Oceanographic Office

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay, P. S.; Edwards, K. L.

    2017-12-01

    Significant discrepancies between the Naval Oceanographic Office's significant wave height (SWH) predictions and observations have been noted in some model domains. The goal of this study is to evaluate these discrepancies and identify to what extent inaccuracies in the wind predictions may explain inaccuracies in SWH predictions. A one-year time series of data is evaluated at various locations in Southern California and eastern Florida. Correlations are generally quite good, ranging from 73% at Pendleton to 88% at both Santa Barbara, California, and Cape Canaveral, Florida. Correlations for month-long periods off Southern California drop off significantly in late spring through early autumn - less so off eastern Florida - likely due to weaker local wind seas and generally smaller SWH in addition to the influence of remotely-generated swell, which may not propagate accurately into and through the wave models. The results of this study suggest that it is likely that a change in meteorological and/or oceanographic conditions explains the change in model performance, partially as a result of a seasonal reduction in wind model performance in the summer months.

  1. Simulations of short-crested harbour waves with variational Boussinesq modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adytia, D.

    2014-01-01

    Waves propagating from the deep ocean to the coast show large changes in wave height, wave length and direction. The challenge to simulate the essential wave characteristics is in particular to model the speed and nonlinear interaction correctly. All these physical phenomena are present, but hidden,

  2. Cnoidal waves as solutions of the nonlinear liquid drop model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ludu, Andrei; Sandulescu, Aureliu; Greiner Walter

    1997-01-01

    By introducing in the hydrodynamic model, i.e. in the hydrodynamic equation and the corresponding boundary conditions, the higher order terms in the deviation of the shape, we obtain in the second order the Korteweg de Vries equations (KdV). The same equation is obtained by introducing in the liquid drop model (LDM), i.e. in the kinetic, surface and Coulomb terms, the higher terms in the second order. The KdV equation has the cnoidal waves as steady-state solutions. These waves could describe the small anharmonic vibrations of spherical nuclei up to the solitary waves. The solitons could describe the preformation of clusters on the nuclear surface. We apply this nonlinear liquid drop model to the alpha formation in heavy nuclei. We find an additional minimum in the total energy of such systems, corresponding to the solitons as clusters on the nuclear surface. By introducing the shell effects we choose this minimum to be degenerated with the ground state. The spectroscopic factor is given by ratio of the square amplitudes in the two minima. (authors)

  3. Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Paul

    2012-04-01

    Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.

  4. Predictive performance models and multiple task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D.; Larish, Inge; Contorer, Aaron

    1989-01-01

    Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.

  5. Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....

  6. Distributed Model Predictive Control via Dual Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents dual decomposition as a means to coordinate a number of subsystems coupled by state and input constraints. Each subsystem is equipped with a local model predictive controller while a centralized entity manages the subsystems via prices associated with the coupling constraints...

  7. Impacts of wave energy conversion devices on local wave climate: observations and modelling from the Perth Wave Energy Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeke, Ron; Hemer, Mark; Contardo, Stephanie; Symonds, Graham; Mcinnes, Kathy

    2016-04-01

    As demonstrated by the Australian Wave Energy Atlas (AWavEA), the southern and western margins of the country possess considerable wave energy resources. The Australia Government has made notable investments in pre-commercial wave energy developments in these areas, however little is known about how this technology may impact local wave climate and subsequently affect neighbouring coastal environments, e.g. altering sediment transport, causing shoreline erosion or accretion. In this study, a network of in-situ wave measurement devices have been deployed surrounding the 3 wave energy converters of the Carnegie Wave Energy Limited's Perth Wave Energy Project. This data is being used to develop, calibrate and validate numerical simulations of the project site. Early stage results will be presented and potential simulation strategies for scaling-up the findings to larger arrays of wave energy converters will be discussed. The intended project outcomes are to establish zones of impact defined in terms of changes in local wave energy spectra and to initiate best practice guidelines for the establishment of wave energy conversion sites.

  8. Modeling North Atlantic Nor'easters With Modern Wave Forecast Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrie, Will; Toulany, Bechara; Roland, Aron; Dutour-Sikiric, Mathieu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Qi, Jianhua; Hu, Yongcun; Casey, Michael P.; Shen, Hui

    2018-01-01

    Three state-of-the-art operational wave forecast model systems are implemented on fine-resolution grids for the Northwest Atlantic. These models are: (1) a composite model system consisting of SWAN implemented within WAVEWATCHIII® (the latter is hereafter, WW3) on a nested system of traditional structured grids, (2) an unstructured grid finite-volume wave model denoted "SWAVE," using SWAN physics, and (3) an unstructured grid finite element wind wave model denoted as "WWM" (for "wind wave model") which uses WW3 physics. Models are implemented on grid systems that include relatively large domains to capture the wave energy generated by the storms, as well as including fine-resolution nearshore regions of the southern Gulf of Maine with resolution on the scale of 25 m to simulate areas where inundation and coastal damage have occurred, due to the storms. Storm cases include three intense midlatitude cases: a spring Nor'easter storm in May 2005, the Patriot's Day storm in 2007, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010. Although these wave model systems have comparable overall properties in terms of their performance and skill, it is found that there are differences. Models that use more advanced physics, as presented in recent versions of WW3, tuned to regional characteristics, as in the Gulf of Maine and the Northwest Atlantic, can give enhanced results.

  9. An investigation of r.f. travelling wave current drive using the model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertram, W.K.

    1988-01-01

    Previous experimental investigations in the use of travelling r.f. waves to drive steady toroidal currents in a toroidal plasma have shown that I t , the amount of current driven, is strongly dependent on the ratio of the static toroidal magnetic field B z , to the strength of the r.f. magnetic field B ω . This dependence is characterised by an initial increase and subsequent decrease of I t when B t /B ω increases. It is shown that this observed behaviour is entirely consistent with the behaviour predicted by the current drive model. Results from numerical computations using the model show good quantitative agreement with the published experimental results

  10. Numerical modeling of heat and mass transfer in the human eye under millimeter wave exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karampatzakis, Andreas; Samaras, Theodoros

    2013-05-01

    Human exposure to millimeter wave (MMW) radiation is expected to increase in the next several years. In this work, we present a thermal model of the human eye under MMW illumination. The model takes into account the fluid dynamics of the aqueous humor and predicts a frequency-dependent reversal of its flow that also depends on the incident power density. The calculated maximum fluid velocity in the anterior chamber and the temperature rise at the corneal apex are reported for frequencies from 40 to 100 GHz and different values of incident power density. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Hybrid CFD/CAA Modeling for Liftoff Acoustic Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strutzenberg, Louise L.; Liever, Peter A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents development efforts at the NASA Marshall Space flight Center to establish a hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics and Computational Aero-Acoustics (CFD/CAA) simulation system for launch vehicle liftoff acoustics environment analysis. Acoustic prediction engineering tools based on empirical jet acoustic strength and directivity models or scaled historical measurements are of limited value in efforts to proactively design and optimize launch vehicles and launch facility configurations for liftoff acoustics. CFD based modeling approaches are now able to capture the important details of vehicle specific plume flow environment, identifY the noise generation sources, and allow assessment of the influence of launch pad geometric details and sound mitigation measures such as water injection. However, CFD methodologies are numerically too dissipative to accurately capture the propagation of the acoustic waves in the large CFD models. The hybrid CFD/CAA approach combines the high-fidelity CFD analysis capable of identifYing the acoustic sources with a fast and efficient Boundary Element Method (BEM) that accurately propagates the acoustic field from the source locations. The BEM approach was chosen for its ability to properly account for reflections and scattering of acoustic waves from launch pad structures. The paper will present an overview of the technology components of the CFD/CAA framework and discuss plans for demonstration and validation against test data.

  12. Wave

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo

    2008-01-01

    Estimates for the amount of potential wave energy in the world range from 1-10 TW. The World Energy Council estimates that a potential 2TW of energy is available from the world’s oceans, which is the equivalent of twice the world’s electricity production. Whilst the recoverable resource is many...... times smaller it remains very high. For example, whilst there is enough potential wave power off the UK to supply the electricity demands several times over, the economically recoverable resource for the UK is estimated at 25% of current demand; a lot less, but a very substantial amount nonetheless....

  13. A stepwise model to predict monthly streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood Al-Juboori, Anas; Guven, Aytac

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a stepwise model empowered with genetic programming is developed to predict the monthly flows of Hurman River in Turkey and Diyalah and Lesser Zab Rivers in Iraq. The model divides the monthly flow data to twelve intervals representing the number of months in a year. The flow of a month, t is considered as a function of the antecedent month's flow (t - 1) and it is predicted by multiplying the antecedent monthly flow by a constant value called K. The optimum value of K is obtained by a stepwise procedure which employs Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Nonlinear Generalized Reduced Gradient Optimization (NGRGO) as alternative to traditional nonlinear regression technique. The degree of determination and root mean squared error are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The results of the proposed model are compared with the conventional Markovian and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models based on observed monthly flow data. The comparison results based on five different statistic measures show that the proposed stepwise model performed better than Markovian model and ARIMA model. The R2 values of the proposed model range between 0.81 and 0.92 for the three rivers in this study.

  14. Analytical model for vibration prediction of two parallel tunnels in a full-space

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chao; Zhou, Shunhua; Guo, Peijun; Di, Honggui; Zhang, Xiaohui

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a three-dimensional analytical model for the prediction of ground vibrations from two parallel tunnels embedded in a full-space. The two tunnels are modelled as cylindrical shells of infinite length, and the surrounding soil is modelled as a full-space with two cylindrical cavities. A virtual interface is introduced to divide the soil into the right layer and the left layer. By transforming the cylindrical waves into the plane waves, the solution of wave propagation in the full-space with two cylindrical cavities is obtained. The transformations from the plane waves to cylindrical waves are then used to satisfy the boundary conditions on the tunnel-soil interfaces. The proposed model provides a highly efficient tool to predict the ground vibration induced by the underground railway, which accounts for the dynamic interaction between neighbouring tunnels. Analysis of the vibration fields produced over a range of frequencies and soil properties is conducted. When the distance between the two tunnels is smaller than three times the tunnel diameter, the interaction between neighbouring tunnels is highly significant, at times in the order of 20 dB. It is necessary to consider the interaction between neighbouring tunnels for the prediction of ground vibrations induced underground railways.

  15. Extreme value prediction of the wave-induced vertical bending moment in large container ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ingrid Marie Vincent; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2015-01-01

    increase the extreme hull girder response significantly. Focus in the present paper is on the influence of the hull girder flexibility on the extreme response amidships, namely the wave-induced vertical bending moment (VBM) in hogging, and the prediction of the extreme value of the same. The analysis...... in the present paper is based on time series of full scale measurements from three large container ships of 8600, 9400 and 14000 TEU. When carrying out the extreme value estimation the peak-over-threshold (POT) method combined with an appropriate extreme value distribution is applied. The choice of a proper...... threshold level as well as the statistical correlation between clustered peaks influence the extreme value prediction and are taken into consideration in the present paper....

  16. A Comparison of Surface Acoustic Wave Modeling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, W. c.; Atkinson, G. M.

    2009-01-01

    Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) technology is low cost, rugged, lightweight, extremely low power and can be used to develop passive wireless sensors. For these reasons, NASA is investigating the use of SAW technology for Integrated Vehicle Health Monitoring (IVHM) of aerospace structures. To facilitate rapid prototyping of passive SAW sensors for aerospace applications, SAW models have been developed. This paper reports on the comparison of three methods of modeling SAWs. The three models are the Impulse Response Method a first order model, and two second order matrix methods; the conventional matrix approach, and a modified matrix approach that is extended to include internal finger reflections. The second order models are based upon matrices that were originally developed for analyzing microwave circuits using transmission line theory. Results from the models are presented with measured data from devices.

  17. Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading. Volume 2, Part 1; Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O.; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approximately 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

  18. Application of multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models in radiation belt modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryan, H.; Kang, S. B.; Balikhin, M. A.; Fok, M. C. H.; Agapitov, O. V.; Komar, C. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Nagai, T.; Sibeck, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model along with many other radiation belt models require inputs for pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. In this study we incorporate recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of MeV electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multi-parameter wave models resembles the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.

  19. Benchmark Modeling of the Near-Field and Far-Field Wave Effects of Wave Energy Arrays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rhinefrank, Kenneth E; Haller, Merrick C; Ozkan-Haller, H Tuba

    2013-01-26

    This project is an industry-led partnership between Columbia Power Technologies and Oregon State University that will perform benchmark laboratory experiments and numerical modeling of the near-field and far-field impacts of wave scattering from an array of wave energy devices. These benchmark experimental observations will help to fill a gaping hole in our present knowledge of the near-field effects of multiple, floating wave energy converters and are a critical requirement for estimating the potential far-field environmental effects of wave energy arrays. The experiments will be performed at the Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory (Oregon State University) and will utilize an array of newly developed Buoys' that are realistic, lab-scale floating power converters. The array of Buoys will be subjected to realistic, directional wave forcing (1:33 scale) that will approximate the expected conditions (waves and water depths) to be found off the Central Oregon Coast. Experimental observations will include comprehensive in-situ wave and current measurements as well as a suite of novel optical measurements. These new optical capabilities will include imaging of the 3D wave scattering using a binocular stereo camera system, as well as 3D device motion tracking using a newly acquired LED system. These observing systems will capture the 3D motion history of individual Buoys as well as resolve the 3D scattered wave field; thus resolving the constructive and destructive wave interference patterns produced by the array at high resolution. These data combined with the device motion tracking will provide necessary information for array design in order to balance array performance with the mitigation of far-field impacts. As a benchmark data set, these data will be an important resource for testing of models for wave/buoy interactions, buoy performance, and far-field effects on wave and current patterns due to the presence of arrays. Under the proposed project we will initiate

  20. Evaluation of Simulated Marine Aerosol Production Using the WaveWatchIII Prognostic Wave Model Coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model within the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, M. S. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). School of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Keene, William C. [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Zhang, J. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Reichl, B. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Shi, Y. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Hara, T. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Reid, J. S. [Naval Research Lab. (NRL), Monterey, CA (United States); Fox-Kemper, B. [Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States). Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences; Craig, A. P. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Erickson, D. J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computer Science and Mathematics Division; Ginis, I. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Webb, A. [Univ. of Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Ocean Technology, Policy, and Environment

    2016-11-08

    Primary marine aerosol (PMA) is emitted into the atmosphere via breaking wind waves on the ocean surface. Most parameterizations of PMA emissions use 10-meter wind speed as a proxy for wave action. This investigation coupled the 3rd generation prognostic WAVEWATCH-III wind-wave model within a coupled Earth system model (ESM) to drive PMA production using wave energy dissipation rate – analogous to whitecapping – in place of 10-meter wind speed. The wind speed parameterization did not capture basin-scale variability in relations between wind and wave fields. Overall, the wave parameterization did not improve comparison between simulated versus measured AOD or Na+, thus highlighting large remaining uncertainties in model physics. Results confirm the efficacy of prognostic wind-wave models for air-sea exchange studies coupled with laboratory- and field-based characterizations of the primary physical drivers of PMA production. No discernible correlations were evident between simulated PMA fields and observed chlorophyll or sea surface temperature.