Wave climate and trends along the eastern Chukchi Arctic Alaska coast

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, L.H.; Storlazzi, C.D.; Jensen, R.E.

2011-01-01

Due in large part to the difficulty of obtaining measurements in the Arctic, little is known about the wave climate along the coast of Arctic Alaska. In this study, numerical model simulations encompassing 40 years of wave hind-casts were used to assess mean and extreme wave conditions. Results indicate that the wave climate was strongly modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and that mean and extreme wave heights and periods exhibited increasing trends in both the sea and swell frequency bands over the time-period studied (1954-2004). Model simulations also indicate that the upward trend was not due to a decrease in the minimum icepack extent. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Farda, Aleš

2018-02-01

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970-1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020-2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070-2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

2015-01-01

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

Wave climate change, coastline response and hazard prediction in New South Wales, Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodwin, Ian D.; Verdon, Danielle; Cowell, Peter

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Considerable research effort has been directed towards understanding and the gross prediction of shoreline response to sea level rise (eg. Cowell ef a/. 2003a, b). In contrast, synoptic prediction of changes in the planform configuration of shorelines in response to changes in wind and wave climates over many decades has been limited by the lack of geohistorical data on shoreline alignment evolution and long time series of wave climate. This paper presents new data sets on monthly mean wave direction variability based on: a. Waverider buoy data; b. a reconstruction of monthly mid-shelf wave direction, 1877 to 2002 AD from historical MSLP data (Goodwin 2005); and c. a multi-decadal reconstruction of wave direction, in association with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode of climate variability, covering the past millennium. A model of coastline response to the wave climate variability is presented for northern and central New South Wales (NSW) for decadal to multi-decadal time scales, and is based on instrumental and geohistorical data. The sensitivity of the coastline position and alignment, and beach state to mean and extreme wave climate changes is demonstrated (e.g. Goodwin et al. 2006). State changes in geometric shoreline alignment rotation, sand volume (progradation/recession) for NSW and mean wave direction, are shown to be in agreement with the low-frequency change in Pacific-wide climate. Synoptic typing of climate patterns using Self Organised Mapping methods is used to downscale CSIRO GCM output for this century. The synoptic types are correlated to instrumental wave climate data and coastal behaviour. The shifts in downscaled synoptic types for 2030 and 2070 AD are then used as the basis for predicting mean wave climate changes, coastal behaviour and hazards along the NSW coastline. The associated coastal hazards relate to the definition of coastal land loss through rising sea levels and shoreline

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Lowe

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands

Science.gov (United States)

Shope, J.B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, C.A.

2015-01-01

Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast for 2081–2100 using output from four coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Global climate model wind fields were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. December–February 95th percentile extreme significant wave heights under both climate scenarios decreased by 2100 compared to 1976–2010 historical values. Trends under both scenarios were similar, with the higher-emission RCP8.5 scenario displaying a greater decrease in extreme significant wave heights than where emissions are reduced in the RCP4.5 scenario. Central equatorial Pacific Islands displayed the greatest departure from historical values; significant wave heights decreased there by as much as 0.32 m during December–February and associated wave directions rotated approximately 30° clockwise during June–August compared to hindcast data.

Impacts of wave energy conversion devices on local wave climate: observations and modelling from the Perth Wave Energy Project

Science.gov (United States)

Hoeke, Ron; Hemer, Mark; Contardo, Stephanie; Symonds, Graham; Mcinnes, Kathy

2016-04-01

As demonstrated by the Australian Wave Energy Atlas (AWavEA), the southern and western margins of the country possess considerable wave energy resources. The Australia Government has made notable investments in pre-commercial wave energy developments in these areas, however little is known about how this technology may impact local wave climate and subsequently affect neighbouring coastal environments, e.g. altering sediment transport, causing shoreline erosion or accretion. In this study, a network of in-situ wave measurement devices have been deployed surrounding the 3 wave energy converters of the Carnegie Wave Energy Limited's Perth Wave Energy Project. This data is being used to develop, calibrate and validate numerical simulations of the project site. Early stage results will be presented and potential simulation strategies for scaling-up the findings to larger arrays of wave energy converters will be discussed. The intended project outcomes are to establish zones of impact defined in terms of changes in local wave energy spectra and to initiate best practice guidelines for the establishment of wave energy conversion sites.

US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

Long-term wave measurements in a climate change perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Pomaro, Angela; Bertotti, Luciana; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero; Portilla-Yandun, Jesus

2017-04-01

At present multi-decadal time series of wave data needed for climate studies are generally provided by long term model simulations (hindcasts) covering the area of interest. Examples, among many, at different scales are wave hindcasts adopting the wind fields of the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) at the global level and by regional re-analysis as for the Mediterranean Sea (Lionello and Sanna, 2006). Valuable as they are, these estimates are necessarily affected by the approximations involved, the more so because of the problems encountered within modelling processes in small basins using coarse resolution wind fields (Cavaleri and Bertotti, 2004). On the contrary, multi-decadal observed time series are rare. They have the evident advantage of somehow representing the real evolution of the waves, without the shortcomings associated with the limitation of models in reproducing the actual processes and the real variability within the wave fields. Obviously, observed wave time series are not exempt of problems. They represent a very local information, hence their use to describe the wave evolution at large scale is sometimes arguable and, in general, it needs the support of model simulations assessing to which extent the local value is representative of a large scale evolution. Local effects may prevent the identification of trends that are indeed present at large scale. Moreover, a regular maintenance, accurate monitoring and metadata information are crucial issues when considering the reliability of a time series for climate applications. Of course, where available, especially if for several decades, measured data are of great value for a number of reasons and can be valuable clues to delve further into the physics of the processes of interest, especially if considering that waves, as an integrated product of the local climate, if available in an area sensitive to even limited changes of the

Generating electricity at a breakwater in a moderate wave climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schoolderman, J.; Reedijk, B.; Vrijling, J.K.; Molenaar, W.F.; Ten Oever, E.; Zijlema, M.

2011-01-01

A new concept for wave energy conversion is examined as a proof of concept for generating electricity in a moderate wave climate while being integrated in a caisson breakwater. Physical model testing is performed to analyse the preliminary efficiency of the device and to identify areas of

Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change

OpenAIRE

Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

2005-01-01

Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However, in common with other renewables, it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed, evidence indicates that wave heights have been changing over the last 40 years, although there is no proven link to global warming. Changes in the wave climate will impa...

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

2013-07-01

Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

A comparison of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods for regional wave climate projections along French coastlines.

Science.gov (United States)

Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando

2013-04-01

Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

Science.gov (United States)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

An integrated wave modelling framework for extreme and rare events for climate change in coastal areas – the case of Rethymno, Crete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vasiliki K. Tsoukala

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Coastal floods are regarded as among the most dangerous and harmful of all natural disasters affecting urban areas adjacent to the shorelines. Rapid urbanization combined with climate change and poor governance often results in significant increase of flood risk, especially for coastal communities. Wave overtopping and wave run-up are the key mechanisms for monitoring the results of coastal flooding and as such, significant efforts are currently focusing on their predicting. In this paper, an integrated methodology is proposed, accounting for wave overtopping and wave run-up under extreme wave scenarios caused by storm surges. By taking advantage of past and future climatic projections of wind data, a downscaling approach is proposed, utilizing a number of appropriate numerical models than can simulate the wave propagation from offshore up to the swash zone. The coastal zone of Rethymno in Greece is selected as a case study area and simulations of wave characteristics with the model SWAN for the period 1960–2100 in the offshore region are presented. These data are given as boundary conditions to further numerical models (MIKE21 PMS and HD in order to investigate the spatial evolution of the wave and the hydrodynamic field in intermediate and shallow waters. Finally, the calculated wave height serves as input to empirical formulas and time dependent wave propagation models (MIKE21 BW to estimate the wave run-up and wave overtopping (EurOtop. It is suggested that the proposed procedure is generic enough to be applicable to any similar region.

Twenty-first century wave climate projections for Ireland and surface winds in the North Atlantic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Gallagher, Sarah; Gleeson, Emily; Tiron, Roxana; McGrath, Ray; Dias, Frédéric

2016-04-01

Ireland has a highly energetic wave and wind climate, and is therefore uniquely placed in terms of its ocean renewable energy resource. The socio-economic importance of the marine resource to Ireland makes it critical to quantify how the wave and wind climate may change in the future due to global climate change. Projected changes in winds, ocean waves and the frequency and severity of extreme weather events should be carefully assessed for long-term marine and coastal planning. We derived an ensemble of future wave climate projections for Ireland using the EC-Earth global climate model and the WAVEWATCH III® wave model, by comparing the future 30-year period 2070-2099 to the period 1980-2009 for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. This dataset is currently the highest resolution wave projection dataset available for Ireland. The EC-Earth ensemble predicts decreases in mean (up to 2 % for RCP4.5 and up to 3.5 % for RCP8.5) 10 m wind speeds over the North Atlantic Ocean (5-75° N, 0-80° W) by the end of the century, which will consequently affect swell generation for the Irish wave climate. The WAVEWATCH III® model predicts an overall decrease in annual and seasonal mean significant wave heights around Ireland, with the largest decreases in summer (up to 15 %) and winter (up to 10 %) for RCP8.5. Projected decreases in mean significant wave heights for spring and autumn were found to be small for both forcing scenarios (less than 5 %), with no significant decrease found for RCP4.5 off the west coast in those seasons.

Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

2007-01-01

-90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

DANWEC - Empirical Analysis of the Wave Climate at the Danish Wave Energy Centre

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tetu, Amelie; Nielsen, Kim; Kofoed, Jens Peter

information on the DanWEC wave and current climate. In this paper an analysis of the wave climate of the DanWEC test site will be presented. This includes a description of the data quality control and filtration for analysis and the observations and data analysis. Relevant characteristics of the test site...... site for several Danish WECs. In 2013 DanWEC has received Greenlab funding from the EUDP programme to establish the site including more detailed information on its wave climate and bathymetry and seabed conditions. The project “Resource Assessment, Forecasts and WECs O&M strategies at DanWEC and beyond......, as for example scatter diagram (Hm0, Tz) will be analysed and wave power distribution given. Based on the data gathered so far a preliminary analysis of extreme events at the DanWEC test site will be presented. Deployment, control strategies and O&M strategies of wave energy converters are sensitive to the wave...

A generalized multivariate regression model for modelling ocean wave heights

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, X. L.; Feng, Y.; Swail, V. R.

2012-04-01

In this study, a generalized multivariate linear regression model is developed to represent the relationship between 6-hourly ocean significant wave heights (Hs) and the corresponding 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields. The model is calibrated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and MSLP fields for 1981-2000, and is validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2001-2010 and ERA40 reanalysis of Hs and MSLP for 1958-2001. The performance of the fitted model is evaluated in terms of Pierce skill score, frequency bias index, and correlation skill score. Being not normally distributed, wave heights are subjected to a data adaptive Box-Cox transformation before being used in the model fitting. Also, since 6-hourly data are being modelled, lag-1 autocorrelation must be and is accounted for. The models with and without Box-Cox transformation, and with and without accounting for autocorrelation, are inter-compared in terms of their prediction skills. The fitted MSLP-Hs relationship is then used to reconstruct historical wave height climate from the 6-hourly MSLP fields taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al. 2011), and to project possible future wave height climates using CMIP5 model simulations of MSLP fields. The reconstructed and projected wave heights, both seasonal means and maxima, are subject to a trend analysis that allows for non-linear (polynomial) trends.

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of

Wind-wave modelling aspects within complicate topography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Christopoulos

Full Text Available Wave forecasting aspects for basins with complicate geomorphology, such as the Aegean Sea, are investigated through an intercomparison study. The efficiency of the available wind models (ECMWF, UKMO to reproduce wind patterns over special basins, as well as three wave models incorporating different physics and characteristics (WAM, AUT, WACCAS, are tested for selected storm cases representing the typical wind situations over the basin. From the wave results, discussed in terms of time-series and statistical parameters, the crucial role is pointed out of the wind resolution and the reliability of the different wave models to estimate the wave climate in such a basin. The necessary grid resolution is also tested, while for a specific test case (December 1991 ERS-1 satellite data are compared with those of the model.

Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jue Lin-Ye

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents

Numerical climate modeling and verification of selected areas for heat waves of Pakistan using ensemble prediction system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amna, S; Samreen, N; Khalid, B; Shamim, A

2013-01-01

Depending upon the topography, there is an extreme variation in the temperature of Pakistan. Heat waves are the Weather-related events, having significant impact on the humans, including all socioeconomic activities and health issues as well which changes according to the climatic conditions of the area. The forecasting climate is of prime importance for being aware of future climatic changes, in order to mitigate them. The study used the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the purpose of modeling seasonal weather hind-cast of three selected areas i.e., Islamabad, Jhelum and Muzaffarabad. This research was purposely carried out in order to suggest the most suitable climate model for Pakistan. Real time and simulated data of five General Circulation Models i.e., ECMWF, ERA-40, MPI, Meteo France and UKMO for selected areas was acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department. Data incorporated constituted the statistical temperature records of 32 years for the months of June, July and August. This study was based on EPS to calculate probabilistic forecasts produced by single ensembles. Verification was done out to assess the quality of the forecast t by using standard probabilistic measures of Brier Score, Brier Skill Score, Cross Validation and Relative Operating Characteristic curve. The results showed ECMWF the most suitable model for Islamabad and Jhelum; and Meteo France for Muzaffarabad. Other models have significant results by omitting particular initial conditions.

The Red Sea: An Arena for Wind-Wave Modeling in Enclosed Seas

KAUST Repository

Langodan, Sabique

2016-12-01

Wind and waves play a major role in important ocean dynamical processes, such as the exchange of heat, momentum and gases between atmosphere and ocean, that greatly contributes to the earth climate and marine lives. Knowledge on wind and wave weather and climate is crucial for a wide range of applications, including oceanographic studies, maritime activities and ocean engineering. Despite being one of the important world shipping routes, the wind-wave characteristics in the Red Sea are yet to be fully explored. Because of the scarcity of waves data in the Red Sea, numerical models become crucial and provide very powerful tools to extrapolate wind and wave data in space, and backward and forward in time. Unlike open oceans, enclosed basins wave have different characteristics, mainly because of their local generation processes. The complex orography on both sides of the Red Sea makes the local wind, and consequently wave, modeling very challenging. This thesis considers the modeling of wind-wave characteristics in the Red Sea, including their climate variability and trends using state-of-the-art numerical models and all available observations. Different approaches are investigated to model and understand the general and unusual wind and wave conditions in the basin using standard global meteorological products and customised regional wind and wave models. After studying and identifying the main characteristics of the wind-wave variability in the Red Sea, we demonstrate the importance of generating accurate atmospheric forcing through data assimilation for reliable wave simulations. In particular, we show that the state-of-the-art physical formulation of wave models is not suitable to model the unique situation of the two opposing wind-waves systems in the Red Sea Convergence Zone, and propose and successfully test a modification to the input and white-capping source functions to address this problem. We further investigate the climate variability and trends of wind

Long Term Wave Climate at the Danish Test Site DanWEC Based on 35 Years Hindcast Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tetu, Amélie; Jensen, Palle Martin; Kramer, Morten Mejlhede

2017-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of the wave climate of the DanWEC test site based on the 35 years hindcast data. This includes monthly and annual variation of the wave climate at the site together with an analysis of extreme events. This work includees results from the project “Resource Assessment...... and reduce WEC’s costs. The work so far has been concentrated on establishing the base for gaining detailed information on the wave and current climate at DanWEC. In this paper an analysis of the wave climate at the DanWEC test site based on 35 years modelled data will be presented. Relevant characteristics...... of the test site, such as scatter tables in terms of wave height and energy period (Hm0, Te) and weather window characteristics will be given. Based on 35 years of data gathered so far, an analysis of extreme events at the DanWEC test site is also included in this work....

Effect of climate change on wind waves generated by anticyclonic cold front intrusions in the Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Appendini, Christian M.; Hernández-Lasheras, Jaime; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Kurczyn, Jorge A.

2018-01-01

Anticyclonic cold surges entering the Gulf of Mexico (Nortes) generate ocean waves that disrupt maritime activities. Norte derived waves are less energetic than the devastating waves from tropical cyclones, but more frequent ( 22 events/year) and with larger spatial influence. Despite their importance, few studies characterize Nortes derived waves and assess the effects of climate change on their occurrence. This study presents a method to identify and characterize Nortes with relation to their derived waves in the Gulf of Mexico. We based the identification of Nortes on synoptic measurements of pressure differences between Yucatan and Texas and wind speed at different buoy locations in the Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, we identified the events in the CFSR reanalysis (present climate) and the CNRM-M5 model for the present climate and the RCP 8.5 scenario. We then forced a wave model to characterize the wave power generated by each event, followed by a principal component analysis and classification by k-means clustering analysis. Five different Nortes types were identified, each one representing a characteristic intensity and area of influence of the Norte driven waves. Finally, we estimated the occurrence of each Norte type for the present and future climates, where the CNRM-M5 results indicate that the high-intensity events will be less frequent in a warming climate, while mild events will become more frequent. The consequences of such changes may provide relief for maritime and coastal operations because of reduced downtimes. This result is particularly relevant for the operational design of coastal and marine facilities.

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

Science.gov (United States)

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; van Rooijen, Arnold; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia

2015-01-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

Science.gov (United States)

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; Rooijen, Arnold; Cheriton, Olivia; Dongeren, Ap

2015-08-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

Model Test Bed for Evaluating Wave Models and Best Practices for Resource Assessment and Characterization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neary, Vincent Sinclair [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies; Yang, Zhaoqing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Coastal Sciences Division; Wang, Taiping [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Coastal Sciences Division; Gunawan, Budi [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies; Dallman, Ann Renee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies

2016-03-01

A wave model test bed is established to benchmark, test and evaluate spectral wave models and modeling methodologies (i.e., best practices) for predicting the wave energy resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission, IEC TS 62600-101Ed. 1.0 ©2015. Among other benefits, the model test bed can be used to investigate the suitability of different models, specifically what source terms should be included in spectral wave models under different wave climate conditions and for different classes of resource assessment. The overarching goal is to use these investigations to provide industry guidance for model selection and modeling best practices depending on the wave site conditions and desired class of resource assessment. Modeling best practices are reviewed, and limitations and knowledge gaps in predicting wave energy resource parameters are identified.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves over China in regional climate simulations within the CORDEX-EA project

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Pinya; Tang, Jianping; Sun, Xuguang; Liu, Jianyong; Juan, Fang

2018-03-01

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in 20-year regional climate simulations over East Asia, and investigates the capability of WRF to reproduce observational heat waves in China. Within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the WRF model is driven by the ERA-Interim (ERAIN) reanalysis, and five continuous simulations are conducted from 1989 to 2008. Of these, four runs apply the interior spectral nudging (SN) technique with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validations show that WRF can reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in China. Compared with the experiment without SN, the application of SN is effectie on improving the skill of the model in simulating both the spatial distributions and temporal variations of heat waves of different intensities. The WRF model shows advantages in reproducing the synoptic circulations with SN and therefore yields better representations for heat wave events. Besides, the SN method is able to preserve the variability of large-scale circulations quite well, which in turn adjusts the extreme temperature variability towards the observation. Among the four SN experiments, those with stronger nudging coefficients perform better in modulating both the spatial and temporal features of heat waves. In contrast, smaller nudging coefficients weaken the effects of SN on improving WRF's performances.

Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-12-01

Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

Modeling Waves and Coastal Flooding along the Connecticut Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Cifuentes-Lorenzen, A.; Howard-Strobel, M. M.; Fake, T.; McCardell, G.; O'Donnell, J.; Asthita, M.

2015-12-01

We have used a hydrodynamic- wave coupled numerical model (FVCOM-SWAVE) to simulate flooding at the Connecticut coastline during severe storms. The model employed a one-way nesting scheme and an unstructured grid. The parent domain spanned most of the southern New England shelf and the fine resolution grid covered Long Island Sound (LIS) and extended across the Connecticut coast to the 10m elevation contour. The model results for sea level, current and wave statistics from the parent grid have been tested with data from several field campaigns at different locations spanning the western, central and eastern portions of LIS. Waves are fetch limited and improvements to the model-data comparison required modifications to spectral coefficients in the wave model. Finally, the nested results were validated with two field campaigns in shallow water environments (i.e. New Haven and Old Saybrook). To assess the spatial variability of storm wave characteristics the domain was forced with the hindcast winds obtained from meteorological models (NAM and WRF) for 13 severe weather events that affected LIS in the past 15 years. We have also forced the system with a simulation of Superstorm Sandy in a warmer climate to assess the impact a climate change on the character of flooding. The nested grid is currently being used to map flooding risks under severe weather events including the effects of precipitation on river flow and discharge.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of heat waves over Central Europe in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

2015-01-01

Roč. 45, č. 9 (2015), s. 2351-2366 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 505539 - ENSEMBLES Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : heat waves * regional climate models * land–atmosphere coupling * spatial characteristics * interannual variability * ENSEMBLES project Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.708, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2475-7

Overly persistent circulation in climate models contributes to overestimated frequency and duration of heat waves and cold spells

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

2016-01-01

Roč. 46, č. 9 (2016), s. 2805-2820 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265; GA MŠk 7AMB15AR001 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 505539 - ENSEMBLES Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : heat wave * cold spell * atmospheric circulation * persistence * regional climate models * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.146, year: 2016 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2733-8

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

2017-03-27

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

Novel Methods to Explore Building Energy Sensitivity to Climate and Heat Waves Using PNNL's BEND Model

Science.gov (United States)

Burleyson, C. D.; Voisin, N.; Taylor, T.; Xie, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

The DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model to simulate energy usage in residential and commercial buildings responding to changes in weather, climate, population, and building technologies. At its core, BEND is a mechanism to aggregate EnergyPlus simulations of a large number of individual buildings with a diversity of characteristics over large spatial scales. We have completed a series of experiments to explore methods to calibrate the BEND model, measure its ability to capture interannual variability in energy demand due to weather using simulations of two distinct weather years, and understand the sensitivity to the number and location of weather stations used to force the model. The use of weather from "representative cities" reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate (Fig. 1). We quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations across the western U.S., ranging from 8 to roughly 150. Using 8 stations results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 4.0°C. The mean absolute bias drops to 1.5°C using all available stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%. Additionally, using only 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% bias of peak building loads under heat wave or cold snap conditions, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may rely on these types of simulations. This analysis suggests that using 4 stations per climate zone may be sufficient for most purposes. Our novel approach, which requires no new EnergyPlus simulations, could be useful to other researchers designing or calibrating aggregate building model simulations - particularly those looking at

Oscillatory ripples, evaluation of ancient wave climates and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Oscillatory ripples, evaluation of ancient wave climates and epierogeny in the Anambra ... conditions, epierogenic patterns and paleogeographic history of the basins. ... shallow and marked by low to moderate hydrodynamic energy conditions.

Understanding and simulating the link between African easterly waves and Atlantic tropical cyclones using a regional climate model: the role of domain size and lateral boundary conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caron, Louis-Philippe [MISU, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden); Universite du Quebec a Montreal, CRCMD Network, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jones, Colin G. [Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Center, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

2012-07-15

Using a suite of lateral boundary conditions, we investigate the impact of domain size and boundary conditions on the Atlantic tropical cyclone and african easterly Wave activity simulated by a regional climate model. Irrespective of boundary conditions, simulations closest to observed climatology are obtained using a domain covering both the entire tropical Atlantic and northern African region. There is a clear degradation when the high-resolution model domain is diminished to cover only part of the African continent or only the tropical Atlantic. This is found to be the result of biases in the boundary data, which for the smaller domains, have a large impact on TC activity. In this series of simulations, the large-scale Atlantic atmospheric environment appears to be the primary control on simulated TC activity. Weaker wave activity is usually accompanied by a shift in cyclogenesis location, from the MDR to the subtropics. All ERA40-driven integrations manage to capture the observed interannual variability and to reproduce most of the upward trend in tropical cyclone activity observed during that period. When driven by low-resolution global climate model (GCM) integrations, the regional climate model captures interannual variability (albeit with lower correlation coefficients) only if tropical cyclones form in sufficient numbers in the main development region. However, all GCM-driven integrations fail to capture the upward trend in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. In most integrations, variations in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appear uncorrelated with variations in African easterly wave activity. (orig.)

Evaluation of the numerical wave model (SWAN) for wave simulation in the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Akpınar, Adem; van Vledder, Gerbrant Ph.; Kömürcü, Murat İhsan; Özger, Mehmet

2012-12-01

This study summaries the implementation of the SWAN model forced by the ECMWF ERA Interim dataset reanalyzed 10 m winds over the Black Sea which will be used to study the wind-wave climate and wave energy potential in the region, and its verification. The SWAN model results were compared with directional buoy measurements at three locations along the north and south coasts of the Black Sea, parametric model results based on the JONSWAP growth relations, and the results of previous studies. The SWAN model has been applied in a third generation and non-stationary mode with spherical coordinates. The linear and exponential growth from wind input, depth-induced wave breaking, bottom friction, whitecapping, four-wave (for deep water) and triad-wave (for shallow water) nonlinear interactions have been activated in the simulations. The results of this study indicate that agreement between simulated and observed wave parameters is satisfactory and it is slightly more accurate than the results of the previous studies. However, it still has lower estimates for the maximum values of both wave parameters. These lower estimates are probably due to too low wind speeds in the applied ECMWF wind fields, which is probably caused by orographic effects, and due to the relatively course resolution in time and space of the ECMWF (ERA-Interim) wind fields for the Black Sea.

Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 1: Constant wave climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

2013-01-01

integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model.First the length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a stability analysis. Next the further evolution from the linear to the fully non-linear regime is described...

Resiliency of the Nation's Power Grid: Assessing Risks of Premature Failure of Large Power Transformers Under Climate Warming and Increased Heat Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Morgan, E.

2017-12-01

The aging pieces of our nation's power grid - the largest machine ever built - are at a critical time. Key assets in the transmission system, including large power transformers (LPTs), are approaching their originally designed lifetimes. Moreover, extreme weather and climate events upon which these design lifetimes are partially based are expected to change. In particular, more frequent and intense heat waves can accelerate the degradation of LPTs' insulation/cooling system. Thus, there are likely thousands of LPTs across the United States under increasing risk of premature failure - yet this risk has not been assessed. In this study, we investigate the impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in heat waves for critical LPTs located in the Northeast corridor of the United States to assess: To what extent do changes in heat waves/events present a rising threat to the transformer network over the Northeast U.S. and to what extent can climate mitigation reduce this risk? This study focuses on a collection of LPTs with a high degree of "betweenness" - while recognizing other factors such as: connectivity, voltage rating, MVA rating, approximate price, weight, location/proximity to major transportation routes, and age. To assess the risk of future change in heat wave occurrence we use an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of heat waves based on associated large-scale atmospheric conditions. This method is compared to the more conventional approach that uses model-simulated daily maximum temperature. Under future climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both methods indicate strong increases in heat wave frequency during the latter half of this century. Under weak climate mitigation - the risks imposed from heat wave occurrence could quadruple, but a modest mitigation scenario cuts the increasing threat in half. As important, the analogue method substantially improves the model consensus through reduction of the interquartile range by a

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

Deriving nearshore wave climate along South African coast

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rossouw, M

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The present study addressed aspects of the highly interrelated study area of coastal safety and vulnerability, climate change and setback lines for South African coast. A medium resolution numerical wave analysis was undertaken, in the form...

Future Changes in Cyclonic Wave Climate in the North Atlantic, with a Focus on the French West Indies

Science.gov (United States)

Belmadani, A.; Palany, P.; Dalphinet, A.; Pilon, R.; Chauvin, F.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a major environmental hazard in numerous small islands such as the French West Indies (Guadeloupe, Martinique, St-Martin, St-Barthélémy). The intense associated winds, which can reach 300 km/h or more, can cause serious damage in the islands and their coastlines. In particular, the combined action of waves, currents and low atmospheric pressure leads to severe storm surge and coastal flooding. Here we report on future changes in cyclonic wave climate for the North Atlantic basin, as a preliminary step for downscaled projections over the French West Indies at sub-kilometer-scale resolution. A new configuration of the Météo-France ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model on a stretched grid with increased resolution in the tropical North Atlantic ( 15 km) is able to reproduce the observed distribution of maximum surface winds, including extreme events corresponding to Category 5 hurricanes. Ensemble historical simulations (1985-2014, 5 members) and future projections with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) RCP8.5 scenario (2051-2080, 5 members) are used to drive the MFWAM (Météo-France Wave Action Model) over the North Atlantic basin. A lower 50-km resolution grid is used to propagate distant mid-latitude swells into a higher 10-km resolution grid over the cyclonic basin. Wave model performance is evaluated over a few TC case studies including the Sep-Oct 2016 Category 5 Hurricane Matthew, using an operational version of ARPEGE at similar resolution to force MFWAM together with wave buoy data. The latter are also used to compute multi-year wave statistics, which then allow assessing the realism of the MFWAM historical runs. For each climate scenario and ensemble member, a simulation of the cyclonic season (July to mid-November) is performed every year. The simulated sea states over the North Atlantic cyclonic basin over 150 historical simulations are compared to their counterparts over 150 future simulations

Climate model diversity in the Northern Hemisphere Polar vortex response to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, I.; Seager, R.; Hitchcock, P.; Cohen, N.

2017-12-01

Global climate models vary widely in their predictions of the future of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, with some showing a significant strengthening of the vortex, some showing a significant weakening and others displaying a response that is not outside of the range expected from internal variability alone. This inter-model spread in stratospheric predictions may account for some inter-model spread in tropospheric predictions with important implications for the storm tracks and regional climate change, particularly for the North Atlantic sector. Here, our current state of understanding of this model spread and its tropospheric impacts will be reviewed. Previous studies have proposed relationships between a models polar vortex response to climate change and its present day vortex climatology while others have demonstrated links between a models polar vortex response and changing wave activity coming up from the troposphere below under a warming climate. The extent to which these mechanisms can account for the spread in polar vortex changes exhibited by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models will be assessed. In addition, preliminary results from a series of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model will be presented. In these experiments, nudging of the stratospheric zonal mean state has been imposed to mimic the inter-model spread in the polar vortex response to climate change so that the downward influence of the spread in zonal mean stratospheric responses on the tropospheric circulation can be assessed within one model.

Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. M. Griffies

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

Science.gov (United States)

Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

1988-01-01

A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)

2007-12-15

This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

A possible indication of anthropogenic climate change in the wave climate in the central North Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pfizenmayer, A.; Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

2000-07-01

In the central North Sea we observe an increase in the frequency of eastward propagating waves in the recent four decades. To assess the significance of this change the wave statistic for this century was reconstructed with a statistical model. With a linear multivariate technique (redundancy analysis) monthly mean air pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Western Europe were downscaled on the intramonthly frequency of directional wave propagation. When compared against this reference, the recent change appears significant at the 5% level. In order to investigate the reason for this local climatic change, reconstruction was compared with the downscaled results of a transient GCM scenario (ECHAMA-OPYC3) and with results obtained in a high resolution time slice experiment with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Both estimates are qualitatively consistent with the changes observed in the last decades. We suggest that the recent increase of eastward propagation is a local manifestation of anthropogenic global climate change. (orig.) [German] In den letzten Jahrzehnten konnte in der zentralen Nordsee eine Zunahme der Haeufigkeit ostwaerts laufender Wellen beobachtet werden. Mit Hilfe eines statistischen Modells wurde die Wellenstatistik des 20. Jahrhunderts rekonstruiert. Der monatliche mittlere Bodenluftdruck ueber dem Nordatlantik und Westeuropa wurde mit einer linearen multivariaten Technik auf die monatliche Verteilung der Wellenrichtungen regionalisiert. Der Vergleich der juengsten Aenderungen mit dem gesamten Jahrhundert zeigt, dass diese Aenderung im Wellenklima signifikant ist (5-%-Grenze). Zur Untersuchung der Ursachen dieser Veraenderung wurden diese mit den regionalisierten Ergebnissen aus einem transienten Klimaszenario und einem hochaufgeloesten Zeitscheibenexperiment verglichen. Beide Szenarien produzieren bei ansteigenden Treibhausgasen und Aerosolen eine qualitativ konsistente Aenderung. Die Zunahme der oestlich laufenden

Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Mathias; Orth, René; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-03-01

The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heat wave.

Climate simulations for the last interglacial period by means of climate models of different complexity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Montoya, M L [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

1999-07-01

Climatic conditions during the lst interglacial (125,000 years before present) are investigated with two climate models of different complexity: The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM-1/LSG and the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. In particular the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum, and its importance for a consistent simulation of the Mid-Holocene climate, has been investigated (EU project ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models). Comparison of the results of the two models reveals a broad agreement in most large-scale features. Nevertheless, discrepancies are also detected. Essentially, the models differ in their ocean circulation responses. Profiting of the fast turnaround time of CLIMBER-2, a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed to try to explain the possible reasons for these differences, and to analyze additional effects not included in the previous simulations. In particular, the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum has been investigated. Comparison of the simulated responses against CLIMAP reconstructed SSTs for Marine Isotope Stage 5e shows a satisfactory agreement within the data uncertainties. (orig.) [German] Die klimatischen Bedingungen waehrend der letzten interglazialen Periode (vor 125 000 Jahren) werden anhand zweier Klimamodelle unterschiedlicher Komplexitaet untersucht: Dem Ozean-Atmosphaere gekoppelten allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM-1/LSG und dem Klimasystemmodell mittlerer Komplexitaet CLIMBER-2. Inbesondere wurde die Rolle der Vegetation in der letzten interglazialen Periode und ihre Bedeutung fuer eine konsistente Simulation des mittelholozaenischen Klimas untersucht (EU-Projekt ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models - 'Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten'). Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse beider Modelle zeigt eine gute Uebereinstimmung der meisten der grossskaligen Eigenschaften, allerdings zeigen sich auch

Climate simulations for the last interglacial period by means of climate models of different complexity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Montoya, M.L. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

1999-07-01

Climatic conditions during the lst interglacial (125,000 years before present) are investigated with two climate models of different complexity: The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM-1/LSG and the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. In particular the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum, and its importance for a consistent simulation of the Mid-Holocene climate, has been investigated (EU project ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models). Comparison of the results of the two models reveals a broad agreement in most large-scale features. Nevertheless, discrepancies are also detected. Essentially, the models differ in their ocean circulation responses. Profiting of the fast turnaround time of CLIMBER-2, a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed to try to explain the possible reasons for these differences, and to analyze additional effects not included in the previous simulations. In particular, the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum has been investigated. Comparison of the simulated responses against CLIMAP reconstructed SSTs for Marine Isotope Stage 5e shows a satisfactory agreement within the data uncertainties. (orig.) [German] Die klimatischen Bedingungen waehrend der letzten interglazialen Periode (vor 125 000 Jahren) werden anhand zweier Klimamodelle unterschiedlicher Komplexitaet untersucht: Dem Ozean-Atmosphaere gekoppelten allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM-1/LSG und dem Klimasystemmodell mittlerer Komplexitaet CLIMBER-2. Inbesondere wurde die Rolle der Vegetation in der letzten interglazialen Periode und ihre Bedeutung fuer eine konsistente Simulation des mittelholozaenischen Klimas untersucht (EU-Projekt ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models - 'Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten'). Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse beider Modelle zeigt eine gute Uebereinstimmung der meisten der grossskaligen Eigenschaften, allerdings zeigen sich

Regional Wave Climates along Eastern Boundary Currents

Science.gov (United States)

Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro

2016-04-01

, particularly in the lee of headlands, or even more prevalent and more energized than swell. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

Condensation of long-term wave climates for the fatigue design of hydrodynamically sensitive offshore wind turbine support structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Passon, Patrik; Branner, Kim

2016-01-01

important for hydrodynamically sensitive structures since the applied met-ocean parameters have a non-linear influence on calculated fatigue design loads. The present article introduces a new wave lumping method for condensation of the wave climate. The novelty is predominantly based on refined equivalence......Cost-efficient and reliable fatigue designs of offshore wind turbine support structures require an adequate representation of the site-specific wind–wave joint distribution. Establishment of this wind–wave joint distribution for design load calculation purposes requires typically a correlation...... of the marginal wind and wave distribution. This is achieved by condensation of the site-specific wave climate in terms of wave period or wave height lumping, subsequently used as input for a correlation with the corresponding wind climate. The quality of this resulting wind–wave correlation is especially...

Role of soil moisture vs. recent climate change for heat waves in western Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Mathias; Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia

2015-04-01

Using the framework of event attribution, anthropogenic climate change was found to have a discernible influence on the occurence-probability of heat waves, such as the one in Russia in 2010. Soil moisture, on the other hand, is an important physical driver for heat waves as its availability has a large influence on the partitioning of the available surface net radiation into latent and sensible heat flux. The presented study investigates the relative importance of both controls, soil moisture and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, on heat waves in the region of the 2010 Russian heat wave. This is done with a large number of ensemble members from climate simulations with and without interactive soil moisture for both, the 2000s and the 1960s. The simualtions allow to determine the occurence-probability of heat waves with and without the soil moisture-temperature feedback and to compare it to the change caused by climate change. Thereby, we expect to see the largest effect on daytime maximum temperatures (TXx) and a smaller influence of soil moisture on the mean temperatures and cold extremes.

Role of Soil Moisture vs. Recent Climate Change for the 2010 Heat Wave in Western Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Mathias; Orth, René; Seneviratne, Sonia

2016-04-01

Extreme event attribution statements are often conditional on increased greenhouse gas concentrations or a particular ocean state, but not on other physical factors of the climate system. Here we extend the classical framework and assess the influence of soil moisture on a heat wave to obtain a physical attribution statement. In particular, we test the role of soil-moisture-temperature feedbacks which have been shown to be generally relevant for the build-up of exceptionally high temperatures. As a case study we investigate the severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia, which was previously found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. We quantify the relative role of climate change and that of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks with the event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. We find that climate change from 1960 to 2000 alone has approximately tripled the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia. The combined effect of climate change and the dry 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed the basis for this extreme heatwave.

Climate science in the tropics: waves, vortices and PDEs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khouider, Boualem; Majda, Andrew J; Stechmann, Samuel N

2013-01-01

Clouds in the tropics can organize the circulation on planetary scales and profoundly impact long range seasonal forecasting and climate on the entire globe, yet contemporary operational computer models are often deficient in representing these phenomena. On the other hand, contemporary observations reveal remarkably complex coherent waves and vortices in the tropics interacting across a bewildering range of scales from kilometers to ten thousand kilometers. This paper reviews the interdisciplinary contributions over the last decade through the modus operandi of applied mathematics to these important scientific problems. Novel physical phenomena, new multiscale equations, novel PDEs, and numerical algorithms are presented here with the goal of attracting mathematicians and physicists to this exciting research area. (invited article)

Climate science in the tropics: waves, vortices and PDEs

Science.gov (United States)

Khouider, Boualem; Majda, Andrew J.; Stechmann, Samuel N.

2013-01-01

Clouds in the tropics can organize the circulation on planetary scales and profoundly impact long range seasonal forecasting and climate on the entire globe, yet contemporary operational computer models are often deficient in representing these phenomena. On the other hand, contemporary observations reveal remarkably complex coherent waves and vortices in the tropics interacting across a bewildering range of scales from kilometers to ten thousand kilometers. This paper reviews the interdisciplinary contributions over the last decade through the modus operandi of applied mathematics to these important scientific problems. Novel physical phenomena, new multiscale equations, novel PDEs, and numerical algorithms are presented here with the goal of attracting mathematicians and physicists to this exciting research area.

Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

2017-04-01

Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

Wave modelling to assess the storm conditions in the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

2014-05-01

The work proposed herewith presents the results of a ten-year wave hindcast performed in the Black Sea and focused on the storm conditions. A wave modelling system, SWAN based, was implemented in the basin of the Black Sea. Validations have been performed both against in situ and remotely sensed data for the entire ten-year period considered (1999-2008). The wind field provided by NCEP-CFSR (United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) with a spatial resolution of 0.312ºx0.312º and a temporal resolution of 3 hours was considered for forcing the wave model. In statistical terms, the results are in general in line with those provided by similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed seas, the most important factors in increasing the general system reliability being the accuracy and resolution of the wind fields considered. As regards the physical processes, the calibration tests performed show that whitecapping still represents the weak link in deep water wave modelling. The most relevant storm conditions encountered in this ten-year period considered were further analysed. This analysis was performed from the point of view of the intensity, location of occurrence, duration and propagation in the geographical space of the storms. Following the results of the work, the western side of the sea is more energetic and almost each year storms with significant wave heights of about eight meters are encountered in this part of the Black Sea, while in the case of the extreme storms significant wave heights even greater than eleven meters may occur. From this perspective, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information about the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. Moreover, this marine environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and to offshore operations and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce

Projection of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets using 12 CMIP5 models

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiaojun; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying

2017-05-01

Simulation and projection of the characteristics of heat waves over China were investigated using 12 CMIP5 global climate models and the CN05.1 observational gridded dataset. Four heat wave indices (heat wave frequency, longest heat wave duration, heat wave days, and high temperature days) were adopted in the analysis. Evaluations of the 12 CMIP5 models and their ensemble indicated that the multi-model ensemble could capture the spatiotemporal characteristics of heat wave variation over China. The inter-decadal variations of heat waves during 1961-2005 can be well simulated by multi-model ensemble. Based on model projections, the features of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets (1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0 °C) were explored. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of heat waves would increase more dramatically as the global mean temperature rise attained higher warming targets. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the four China-averaged heat wave indices would increase from about 1.0 times/year, 2.5, 5.4, and 13.8 days/year to about 3.2 times/year, 14.0, 32.0, and 31.9 days/year for 1.5 and 5.0 °C warming targets, respectively. Those regions that suffer severe heat waves in the base climate would experience the heat waves with greater frequency and severity following global temperature rise. It is also noteworthy that the areas in which a greater number of severe heat waves occur displayed considerable expansion. Moreover, the model uncertainties exhibit a gradual enhancement with projected time extending from 2006 to 2099.

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Boville, B. A.; Garcia, R. R.; Sassi, F.; Kinnison, D.; Roble, R. G.

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is an upward exten- sion of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model. WACCM simulates the atmosphere from the surface to the lower thermosphere (140 km) and includes both dynamical and chemical components. The salient points of the model formulation will be summarized and several aspects of its performance will be discussed. Comparison with observations indicates that WACCM produces re- alistic temperature and zonal wind distributions. Both the mean state and interannual variability will be summarized. Temperature inversions in the midlatitude mesosphere have been reported by several authors and are also found in WACCM. These inver- sions are formed primarily by planetary wave forcing, but the background state on which they form also requires gravity wave forcing. The response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies will be examined by com- paring simulations with observed SSTs for 1950-1998 to a simulation with clima- tological annual cycle of SSTs. The response to ENSO events is found to extend though the winter stratosphere and mesosphere and a signal is also found at the sum- mer mesopause. The experimental framework allows the ENSO signal to be isolated, because no other forcings are included (e.g. solar variability and volcanic eruptions) which complicate the observational record. The temperature and wind variations asso- ciated with ENSO are large enough to generate significant perturbations in the chem- ical composition of the middle atmosphere, which will also be discussed.

Sensitivity of the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB-CMAM to different gravity-wave drag parameterisations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Mieth

2004-09-01

Full Text Available We report the sensitivity of the Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM to different gravity-wave (GW parameterisations. We perform five perpetual January experiments: 1 Rayleigh friction (RF (control, 2 non-orographic GWs, 3 orographic GWs, 4 orographic and non-orographic GWs with no background stress, and 5 as for 4 but with background stress. We also repeat experiment 4 but for July conditions. Our main aim is to improve the model climatology by introducing orographic and non-orographic parameterisations and to investigate the individual effect of these schemes in the Berlin CMAM. We compare with an RF control to determine the improvement upon a previously-published model version employing RF. Results are broadly similar to previously-published works. The runs having both orographic and non-orographic GWs produce a statistically-significant warming of 4-8K in the wintertime polar lower stratosphere. These runs also feature a cooling of the warm summer pole in the mesosphere by 10-15K, more in line with observations. This is associated with the non-orographic GW scheme. This scheme is also associated with a heating feature in the winter polar upper stratosphere directly below the peak GW-breaking region. The runs with both orographic and non-orographic GWs feature a statistically-significant deceleration in the polar night jet (PNJ of 10-20ms-1 in the lower stratosphere. Both orographic and non-orographic GWs individually produce some latitudinal tilting of the polar jet with height, although the main effect comes from the non-orographic waves. The resulting degree of tilt, although improved, is nevertheless still weaker than that observed. Accordingly, wintertime variability in the zonal mean wind, which peaks at the edge of the vortex, tends to maximise too far polewards in the model compared with observations. Gravity-planetary wave interaction leads to a decrease in the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves 1 and 2 by up to 50% in

Sensitivity of the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB-CMAM to different gravity-wave drag parameterisations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Mieth

2004-09-01

Full Text Available We report the sensitivity of the Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM to different gravity-wave (GW parameterisations. We perform five perpetual January experiments: 1 Rayleigh friction (RF (control, 2 non-orographic GWs, 3 orographic GWs, 4 orographic and non-orographic GWs with no background stress, and 5 as for 4 but with background stress. We also repeat experiment 4 but for July conditions. Our main aim is to improve the model climatology by introducing orographic and non-orographic parameterisations and to investigate the individual effect of these schemes in the Berlin CMAM. We compare with an RF control to determine the improvement upon a previously-published model version employing RF. Results are broadly similar to previously-published works. The runs having both orographic and non-orographic GWs produce a statistically-significant warming of 4-8K in the wintertime polar lower stratosphere. These runs also feature a cooling of the warm summer pole in the mesosphere by 10-15K, more in line with observations. This is associated with the non-orographic GW scheme. This scheme is also associated with a heating feature in the winter polar upper stratosphere directly below the peak GW-breaking region. The runs with both orographic and non-orographic GWs feature a statistically-significant deceleration in the polar night jet (PNJ of 10-20ms^-1 in the lower stratosphere. Both orographic and non-orographic GWs individually produce some latitudinal tilting of the polar jet with height, although the main effect comes from the non-orographic waves. The resulting degree of tilt, although improved, is nevertheless still weaker than that observed. Accordingly, wintertime variability in the zonal mean wind, which peaks at the edge of the vortex, tends to maximise too far polewards in the model compared with observations. Gravity-planetary wave interaction leads to a decrease in the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves 1 and 2 by

Projection of heat waves variation over a warming climate in China

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, X.; Wu, S.; Pan, T.

2016-12-01

Heat waves (HW) have adverse impacts on economies, human health, societies and environment, which have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in a warming climate. However, the variations of HW under climate change over China are not clear yet. Using the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 daily maximum temperature and humidity dataset, variation of heat waves in China for 2021-2050 comparing to 1991-2000 as baseline were analyzed. The CMA-HI (Heat Index standardized by China Meteorological Administration) index was used to calculate the frequency and intensity of head waves. This paper classified the HW into three intensity levels including mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW , and defined a heat wave event (HWE) as that CMA-HI are all above or equal to 2.8 and keep at a intensity level more than five consecutive days. Results show that during 2021to 2050, the distribution area, frequency and duration of each intensity level have an increasing trend over China, and those of severe HW will increase mostly. The distribution area of mild, moderate and severe HW will increase 18%, 22%, 35% respectively. Average HWE frequency of each level will concentrate on 0.5-1instead of 0-0.3 in baseline period. Maximum frequency of each intensity can reach to almost 3 times a year. During 1991-2000, the average frequency of mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW kept a downward sequence. But it will change to increase in the future, and the shift occurs during 2031-2040. In addition, only severe HW duration will increase in the future. Its average value will increase from 9days to 13days, and keep a maximum duration of 42days.While the average duration of mild HW and moderate HW just keep almost 6 days and 8 days as usual. Regionally, both the frequency and duration will keep high value in the region of eastern China, central China, southern China and central Xinjiang autonomous region in the future. And only severe HW has a great change in distribution. Under RCP 8

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway.

Science.gov (United States)

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

2017-05-01

Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.

Brazilian offshore wave climate based on NWW3 reanalysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cássia Pianca

2010-03-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a description of the wave climate off the Brazilian coast based on an eleven-year time series (Jan/1997-Dec/2007 obtained from the NWW3 operational model hindcast reanalysis. Information about wave climate in Brazilian waters is very scarce and mainly based on occasional short-term observations, the present analysis being the first covering such temporal and spatial scales. To define the wave climate, six sectors were defined and analyzed along the Brazilian shelf-break: South (W1, Southeast (W2, Central (W3, East (W4, Northeast (W5 and North (W6. W1, W2 and W3 wave regimes are determined by the South Atlantic High (SAH and the passage of synoptic cold fronts; W4, W5 and W6 are controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and its meridional oscillation. The most energetic waves are from the S, generated by the strong winds associated to the passage of cold fronts, which mainly affect the southern region. Wave power presents a decrease in energy levels from south to north, with its annual variation showing that the winter months are the most energetic in W1 to W4, while in W5 and W6 the most energetic conditions occur during the austral summer. The information presented here provides boundary conditions for studies related to coastal processes, fundamental for a better understanding of the Brazilian coastal zone.O presente trabalho apresenta o clima de ondas da região ao largo da costa brasileira com base em uma série temporal de onze anos (Jan/1997-Dez/2007 obtida através de dados de reanálise do modelo operacional NWW3. Informações sobre o regime de ondas no Brasil são escassas e baseadas em observações ocasionais de curto período, sendo a presente análise inédita na escala espaço-temporal apresentada. Para a definição do clima de ondas foram definidos e analisados seis setores ao longo da quebra da plataforma continental brasileira: Sul (W1, Sudeste (W2, Central (W3, Leste (W4, Nordeste (W5 e Norte

Incident Wave Climate at the OWC Pico Plant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Le Crom, I.; Cabrera Bermejo, H.; Pecher, Arthur

2011-01-01

The aim of the study is to retrieve the incident wave information that coincides with former Pico plant operation periods. The recent implementation of a directional pressure sensor for wave measurement as well as the recovery of the data gathered by a directional wave rider buoy allowed embarkin...... on the validation of two different models by using both wave measurements: a model for wave propagation (SWAN) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This paper, as a first step of a comprehensive study, leads to several recommendations to improve both methodologies in future works....

Surfing wave climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

2014-10-01

International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.

Climate modulates internal wave activity in the Northern South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

DeCarlo, Thomas M.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Davis, Kristen A.; Wong, George T. F.

2015-02-01

Internal waves (IWs) generated in the Luzon Strait propagate into the Northern South China Sea (NSCS), enhancing biological productivity and affecting coral reefs by modulating nutrient concentrations and temperature. Here we use a state-of-the-art ocean data assimilation system to reconstruct water column stratification in the Luzon Strait as a proxy for IW activity in the NSCS and diagnose mechanisms for its variability. Interannual variability of stratification is driven by intrusions of the Kuroshio Current into the Luzon Strait and freshwater fluxes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Warming in the upper 100 m of the ocean caused a trend of increasing IW activity since 1900, consistent with global climate model experiments that show stratification in the Luzon Strait increases in response to radiative forcing. IW activity is expected to increase in the NSCS through the 21st century, with implications for mitigating climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems.

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

Science.gov (United States)

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

2016-01-01

Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season. PMID:28943813

A review of wave climate and prediction along the Spanish Mediterranean coast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Sánchez-Arcilla

2008-11-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews the characterization of wave storms along the Spanish/Catalan Mediterranean coast. It considers the "physical" and "statistical" description of wave parameters and how they are affected by the prevailing meteo patterns and the sharp gradients in orography and bathymetry. The available field data and numerically simulated wave fields are discussed from this perspective. The resulting limits in accuracy and predictability are illustrated with specific examples. This allows deriving some conclusions for both short-term operational predictions and a long-term climatic assessment.

Indian Ocean dipole modulated wave climate of eastern Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Anoop, T.R.; SanilKumar, V.; Shanas, P.R.; Glejin, J.; Amrutha, M.M.

–378, 2016 www.ocean-sci.net/12/369/2016/ doi:10.5194/os-12-369-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Indian Ocean Dipole modulated wave climate of eastern Arabian Sea T. R. Anoop1, V. Sanil Kumar1, P. R. Shanas1,2, J. Glejin1, and M. M. Amrutha1... are available on the website of the Japanese Agency of Marine–Earth Science and Technology (www.jamstec.go.jp). The tropical IO displays strong inter-annual climate vari- ability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the IOD (Murtugudde et...

A wave model test bed study for wave energy resource characterization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Neary, Vincent S.; Wang, Taiping; Gunawan, Budi; Dallman, Annie R.; Wu, Wei-Cheng

2017-12-01

This paper presents a test bed study conducted to evaluate best practices in wave modeling to characterize energy resources. The model test bed off the central Oregon Coast was selected because of the high wave energy and available measured data at the site. Two third-generation spectral wave models, SWAN and WWIII, were evaluated. A four-level nested-grid approach—from global to test bed scale—was employed. Model skills were assessed using a set of model performance metrics based on comparing six simulated wave resource parameters to observations from a wave buoy inside the test bed. Both WWIII and SWAN performed well at the test bed site and exhibited similar modeling skills. The ST4 package with WWIII, which represents better physics for wave growth and dissipation, out-performed ST2 physics and improved wave power density and significant wave height predictions. However, ST4 physics tended to overpredict the wave energy period. The newly developed ST6 physics did not improve the overall model skill for predicting the six wave resource parameters. Sensitivity analysis using different wave frequencies and direction resolutions indicated the model results were not sensitive to spectral resolutions at the test bed site, likely due to the absence of complex bathymetric and geometric features.

Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Y; Fu, J S; Drake, J B; Liu, Y; Lamarque, J-F

2012-01-01

This study is the first evaluation of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on a 4 km × 4 km high resolution scale in the eastern US driven by the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0). First we examined the global and regional climate model results, and corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask. In comparison with observations, WRF shows statistically significant improvement over CESM in reproducing extreme weather events, with improvement for heat wave frequency estimation as high as 98%. The fossil fuel intensive scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 was used to study a possible future mid-century climate extreme in 2057–9. Both the heat waves and the extreme precipitation in 2057–9 are more severe than the present climate in the Eastern US. The Northeastern US shows large increases in both heat wave intensity (3.05 °C higher) and annual extreme precipitation (107.3 mm more per year). (letter)

Wave Climate and Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-30

measured by R/V Lance ( black solid line) and predicted by SWAN ( black dashed line) and the ship velocity (grey solid line). (c) BFI ( black solid line) and...and potential future trends; and WAVEWATCH-III® and SWAN wave models with new physics, adapted and validated for the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas...nondimensional spectral width ν ( black dashed line). (d–i) Selected photographs from the ship show local sea ice state. Fig. 6 illustrates a

Identification of wind fields for wave modeling near Qatar

Science.gov (United States)

Nayak, Sashikant; Balan Sobhana, Sandeepan; Panchang, Vijay

2016-04-01

of the order of 50% (on average) for the entire duration. The study therefore suggests the use of a mesoscale weather forecasting model such as WRF, for deriving the wind fields for a large but marginal semi-enclosed sea where small scale phenomena dominate, and when used as forcing in the wave model, it provides wave-climate predictions with less error.

A hydrodynamic model of nearshore waves and wave-induced currents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Khaled Seif

2011-09-01

Full Text Available In This study develops a quasi-three dimensional numerical model of wave driven coastal currents with accounting the effects of the wave-current interaction and the surface rollers. In the wave model, the current effects on wave breaking and energy dissipation are taken into account as well as the wave diffraction effect. The surface roller associated with wave breaking was modeled based on a modification of the equations by Dally and Brown (1995 and Larson and Kraus (2002. Furthermore, the quasi-three dimensional model, which based on Navier-Stokes equations, was modified in association with the surface roller effect, and solved using frictional step method. The model was validated by data sets obtained during experiments on the Large Scale Sediment Transport Facility (LSTF basin and the Hazaki Oceanographical Research Station (HORS. Then, a model test against detached breakwater was carried out to investigate the performance of the model around coastal structures. Finally, the model was applied to Akasaki port to verify the hydrodynamics around coastal structures. Good agreements between computations and measurements were obtained with regard to the cross-shore variation in waves and currents in nearshore and surf zone.

Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Jimmy; Lewis, Mark A

2016-11-01

Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.

TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

Assessing the Wave Energy Potential of Jamaica, a Greater Antilles Island, through Dynamic Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Daley, A. P., Jr.; Dorville, J. F. M.; Taylor, M. A.

2017-12-01

Globally wave energy has been on the rise as a result of the impacts of climate change and continuous fluctuation in oil prices. The water's inertia provides waves with greater stability than that of other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Jamaica is part of the Greater Antilles Arc and has over 1000 km of coast line with an abundance of shallow water approximately 80% within a 50km band. This configuration provides a wealth of sites for wave exploitation even in minimal wave energy conditions. Aside from harnessing the oceans waves converters can be viewed as a tool for protection of coastal areas against natural marine occurrences. Jamica has done extensive studies where solar, hydro and wind resouces are concerned. However, there has been no studies done to date on the country's wave energy resources.The aim of this study is to bridge this gap by characterizing Jamaica's wave energy resources generating in a half-closed Caribbean Sea using data available from: buoys, altimetric satellite, and numerical model. Available data has been used to assess the available resource on the coastal area for the last 12 years. Statistical analysis of the available energy is determined using the sea state (Hs, Tp and Dir) and the atmospheric forcing (10m-wind, atmospheric pressure, sea-air temperature) relating to the season.The chain of dynamical model is presented (WW3-SWAN-SWASH), allowing for the tracking of the propagation of the wave energy from an offshore region to nearshore zone along with their interaction with areas of shallow depth. This will provide a better assessment of the energy and the quality of the waves closer to the electrical grid.Climate prediction is used to estimate the sea state and wave energy exploitable up to 2100. An analysis of the possible usage of the available coastal resource up to 2100. The main results present small but exploitable resources with seasonal variability in the energy available but not wave direction.

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Science.gov (United States)

Glotter, Michael J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Elliott, Joshua W.

2015-01-01

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

Awareness of and Attitudes towards Heat Waves within the Context of Climate Change among a Cohort of Residents in Adelaide, Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iain A. Walker

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Heat waves are a public health concern in Australia and unprecedented heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide over recent years. The aim of this study was to examine the perception and attitudes towards heat waves in the context of climate change among a group of residents in Adelaide, an Australian city with a temperate climate. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the summer of 2012 among a sample of 267 residents. The results of the survey found that television (89.9%, radio (71.2%, newspapers (45.3% were the main sources from which respondents received information about heat waves. The majority of the respondents (73.0% followed news about heat waves very or somewhat closely. About 26.6% of the respondents were extremely or very concerned about the effects of heat waves on them personally. The main issues that were of personal concern for respondents during a heat wave were their personal comfort (60.7%, their garden (48.7%, and sleeping well (47.6%. Overall, respondents were more concerned about the impacts of heat waves to the society than on themselves. There was a significant association between gender (χ² = 21.2, df = 3, p = 0.000, gross annual household income (p = 0.03 and concern for the societal effects of heat waves. Less than half (43.2% of the respondents believed that heat waves will extremely or very likely increase in Adelaide according to climate projections. Nearly half (49.3% believed that the effects of heat waves were already being felt in Adelaide. These findings may inform the reframing and communication strategies for heat waves in Adelaide in the context of climate change.

Climate models and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1997-12-31

In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

Climate models and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1996-12-31

In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

A GIS-model for predicting the impact of climate change on shore erosion in hydroelectric reservoirs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penner, L.A.; Zimmer, T.A.M.; St Laurent, M.

2008-01-01

Shoreline erosion affects inland lakes and hydroelectric reservoirs in several ways. This poster described a vector-based geographic information system (GIS) model designed to predict changes in shore zone geometry, top-of-bluff recession, and eroded sediment volumes. The model was designed for use in Manitoba Hydro's reservoirs in northern Manitoba, and simulated near-shore downcutting and bank recession caused by wind-generated waves. Parameters for the model included deep water wave energy, and water level fluctuations. Effective wave energy was seen as a function of the water level fluctuation range, wave conditions, and near-shore slope. The model was validated by field monitoring studies that included repeated shore zone transect surveys and sediment coring studies. Results of the study showed that the model provides a systematic method of predicting potential changes in erosion associated with climatic change. The volume and mass of eroded sediment predicted for the different modelling scenarios will be used as input data for future sedimentation models. tabs., figs

Temporal variability of gravity wave drag - vertical coupling and possible climate links

Science.gov (United States)

Miksovsky, Jiri; Sacha, Petr; Kuchar, Ales; Pisoft, Petr

2017-04-01

In the atmosphere, the internal gravity waves (IGW) are one of the fastest ways of natural information transfer in the vertical direction. Tropospheric changes that result in modification of sourcing, propagation or breaking conditions for IGWs almost immediately influence the distribution of gravity wave drag in the stratosphere. So far most of the related studies deal with IGW impacts higher in the upper stratospheric/mesospheric region and with the modulation of IGWs by planetary waves. This is most likely due to the fact that IGWs induce highest accelerations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region. However, the imposed drag force is much bigger in the stratosphere. In the presented analysis, we have assessed the relationship between the gravity wave activity in the stratosphere and other climatic phenomena through statistical techniques. Multivariable regression has been applied to investigate the IGW-related eastward and northward wind tendencies in the CMAM30-SD data, subject to the explanatory variables involving local circulation characteristics (derived from regional configuration of the thermobaric field) as well as the phases of the large-scale internal climate variability modes (ENSO, NAO, QBO). Our tests have highlighted several geographical areas with statistically significant responses of the orographic gravity waves effect to each of the variability modes under investigation; additional experiments have also indicated distinct signs of nonlinearity in some of the links uncovered. Furthermore, we have also applied composite analysis of displaced and split stratospheric polar vortex events (SPV) from CMAM30-SD to focus on how the strength and occurrence of the IGW hotspots can play a role in SPV occurrence and frequency.

Wave model downscaling for coastal applications

Science.gov (United States)

Valchev, Nikolay; Davidan, Georgi; Trifonova, Ekaterina; Andreeva, Nataliya

2010-05-01

Downscaling is a suitable technique for obtaining high-resolution estimates from relatively coarse-resolution global models. Dynamical and statistical downscaling has been applied to the multidecadal simulations of ocean waves. Even as large-scale variability might be plausibly estimated from these simulations, their value for the small scale applications such as design of coastal protection structures and coastal risk assessment is limited due to their relatively coarse spatial and temporal resolutions. Another advantage of the high resolution wave modeling is that it accounts for shallow water effects. Therefore, it can be used for both wave forecasting at specific coastal locations and engineering applications that require knowledge about extreme wave statistics at or near the coastal facilities. In the present study downscaling is applied to both ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis of atmospheric pressure over the Black Sea with 2.5 degrees spatial resolution. A simplified regional atmospheric model is employed for calculation of the surface wind field at 0.5 degrees resolution that serves as forcing for the wave models. Further, a high-resolution nested WAM/SWAN wave model suite of nested wave models is applied for spatial downscaling. It aims at resolving the wave conditions in a limited area at the close proximity to the shore. The pilot site is located in the northern part the Bulgarian Black Sea shore. The system involves the WAM wave model adapted for basin scale simulation at 0.5 degrees spatial resolution. The WAM output for significant wave height, mean wave period and mean angle of wave approach is used in terms of external boundary conditions for the SWAN wave model, which is set up for the western Black Sea shelf at 4km resolution. The same model set up on about 400m resolution is nested to the first SWAN run. In this case the SWAN 2D spectral output provides boundary conditions for the high-resolution model run. The models are implemented for a

Macroscopic balance model for wave rotors

Science.gov (United States)

Welch, Gerard E.

1996-01-01

A mathematical model for multi-port wave rotors is described. The wave processes that effect energy exchange within the rotor passage are modeled using one-dimensional gas dynamics. Macroscopic mass and energy balances relate volume-averaged thermodynamic properties in the rotor passage control volume to the mass, momentum, and energy fluxes at the ports. Loss models account for entropy production in boundary layers and in separating flows caused by blade-blockage, incidence, and gradual opening and closing of rotor passages. The mathematical model provides a basis for predicting design-point wave rotor performance, port timing, and machine size. Model predictions are evaluated through comparisons with CFD calculations and three-port wave rotor experimental data. A four-port wave rotor design example is provided to demonstrate model applicability. The modeling approach is amenable to wave rotor optimization studies and rapid assessment of the trade-offs associated with integrating wave rotors into gas turbine engine systems.

Heat wave vulnerability classification of residential buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heijden, van der M.G.M.; Blocken, B.J.E.; Hensen, J.L.M.

2012-01-01

General circulation models of climate change predict that the intensity and frequency of heat waves will increase, which are a significant threat to public health (Luber and McGeehin 2008). The effect of heat waves on the public health became apparent during the 2003 heat wave in France, where

SST and OLR relationship during Indian summer monsoon: a coupled climate modelling perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam; Pokhrel, Samir; Chakrabarty, Chandrima; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Sreenivas, P.

2018-04-01

The study mainly investigates sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) relationships in coupled climate model. To support the analysis, high-level cloud and OLR relationship is also investigated. High-level cloud and OLR relationship depicts significant negative correlation over the entire monsoon regime. Coupled climate model is able to produce the same. SST and OLR relationship in observation also depicts significant negative relationship, in particular, over the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is able to portray the negative relationship over EIO region; however, it is underestimated as compared to observation. Significant negative correlations elucidate that local SSTs regulate the convection and further it initiates Bjerknes feedback in the central Indian Ocean. It connotes that SST anomalies during monsoon period tend to be determined by oceanic forcing. The heat content of the coastal Bay of Bengal shows highest response to EIO SST by a lag of 1 month. It suggests that the coastal region of the Bay of Bengal is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which might have come from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Sea surface height anomalies, depth at 20 °C isotherms and depth at 26 isotherms also supports the above hypothesis. Composite analysis based on EIO index and coupled climate model sensitivity experiments also suggest that the coastal Bay of Bengal region is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which are propagated from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Thus, SST and OLR relationship pinpoints that the Bay of Bengal OLR (convection) is governed by local ocean-atmospheric coupling, which is influenced by the delayed response from EIO brought forward through oceanic planetary waves at a lag of 1 month. These results have utmost predictive value for seasonal and extended range forecasting. Thus, OLR and SST relationship can constitute a pivotal role in investigating the

Projected impact of climate change on waves at Mumbai High

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Pentapatim, S.; Deo, M.C.; Kerkar, J.; Vethamony, P.

.5), a numerical wave model of the past and future wave conditions was simulated over a 40-year period. A statistical analysis of both past and projected datasets obtained significant wave heights with a 100-year return. The comparison of wave heights...

Prototype Testing of the Wave Energy Converter Wave Dragon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kofoed, Jens Peter; Frigaard, Peter; Friis-Madsen, Erik

2006-01-01

The Wave Dragon is an offshore wave energy converter of the overtopping type. It consists of two wave reflectors focusing the incoming waves towards a ramp, a reservoir for collecting the overtopping water and a number of hydro turbines for converting the pressure head into power. In the period...... from 1998 to 2001 extensive wave tank testing on a scale model was carried at Aalborg University. Then, a 57!27 m wide and 237 tonnes heavy (incl. ballast) prototype of the Wave Dragon, placed in Nissum Bredning, Denmark, was grid connected in May 2003 as the world’s first offshore wave energy...... converter. The prototype is fully equipped with hydro turbines and automatic control systems, and is instrumented in order to monitor power production, wave climate, forces in mooring lines, stresses in the structure and movements of the Wave Dragon. In the period May 2003 to January 2005 an extensive...

Prototype Testing of the Wave Energy Converter Wave Dragon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kofoed, Jens Peter; Frigaard, Peter Bak; Friis-Madsen, Erik

2004-01-01

The Wave Dragon is an offshore wave energy converter of the overtopping type. It consists of two wave reflectors focusing the incoming waves towards a ramp, a reservoir for collecting the overtopping water and a number of hydro turbines for converting the pressure head into power. In the period...... from 1998 to 2001 extensive wave tank testing on a scale model was carried at Aalborg University. Then, a 57 x 27 m wide and 237 tonnes heavy (incl. ballast) prototype of the Wave Dragon, placed in Nissum Bredning, Denmark, was grid connected in May 2003 as the world's first offshore wave energy...... converter. The prototype is fully equipped with hydro turbines and automatic control systems, and is instrumented in order to monitor power production, wave climate, forces in mooring lines, stresses in the structure and movements of the Wave Dragon. During the last months, extensive testing has started...

Model-based internal wave processing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Candy, J.V.; Chambers, D.H.

1995-06-09

A model-based approach is proposed to solve the oceanic internal wave signal processing problem that is based on state-space representations of the normal-mode vertical velocity and plane wave horizontal velocity propagation models. It is shown that these representations can be utilized to spatially propagate the modal (dept) vertical velocity functions given the basic parameters (wave numbers, Brunt-Vaisala frequency profile etc.) developed from the solution of the associated boundary value problem as well as the horizontal velocity components. Based on this framework, investigations are made of model-based solutions to the signal enhancement problem for internal waves.

WAVE-E: The WAter Vapour European-Explorer Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Jimenez-LLuva, David; Deiml, Michael; Pavesi, Sara

2017-04-01

In the last decade, stratosphere-troposphere coupling processes in the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) have been increasingly recognized to severely impact surface climate and high-impact weather phenomena. Weakened stratospheric circumpolar jets have been linked to worldwide extreme temperature and high-precipitation events, while anomalously strong stratospheric jets can lead to an increase in surface winds and tropical cyclone intensity. Moreover, stratospheric water vapor has been identified as an important forcing for global decadal surface climate change. In the past years, operational weather forecast and climate models have adapted a high vertical resolution in the UTLS region in order to capture the dynamical processes occurring in this highly stratified region. However, there is an evident lack of available measurements in the UTLS region to consistently support these models and further improve process understanding. Consequently, both the IPCC fifth assessment report and the ESA-GEWEX report 'Earth Observation and Water Cycle Science Priorities' have identified an urgent need for long-term observations and improved process understanding in the UTLS region. To close this gap, the authors propose the 'WAter Vapour European - Explorer' (WAVE-E) space mission, whose primary goal is to monitor water vapor in the UTLS at 1 km vertical, 25 km horizontal and sub-daily temporal resolution. WAVE-E consists of three quasi-identical small ( 500 kg) satellites (WAVE-E 1-3) in a constellation of Sun-Synchronous Low Earth Orbits, each carrying a limb sounding and cross-track scanning mid-infrared passive spectrometer (824 cm-1 to 829 cm-1). The core of the instruments builds a monolithic, field-widened type of Michelson interferometer without any moving parts, rendering it rigid and fault tolerant. Synergistic use of WAVE-E and MetOp-NG operational satellites is identified, such that a data fusion algorithm could provide water vapour profiles from the

Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, J.; Zhao, F.; Reyer, C.; Breuer, L.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Eddy, T.; Elliott, J. W.; Francois, L. M.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Huber, V.; Kim, H.; Lotze, H. K.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral "super-ensemble" of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts.

Changes in Southern Hemisphere circulation variability in climate change modelling experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grainger, Simon; Frederiksen, Carsten; Zheng, Xiaogu

2007-01-01

Full text: The seasonal mean of a climate variable can be considered as a statistical random variable, consisting of a signal and noise components (Madden 1976). The noise component consists of internal intraseasonal variability, and is not predictable on time-scales of a season or more ahead. The signal consists of slowly varying external and internal variability, and is potentially predictable on seasonal time-scales. The method of Zheng and Frederiksen (2004) has been applied to monthly time series of 500hPa Geopotential height from models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) experiment to obtain covariance matrices of the intraseasonal and slow components of covariability for summer and winter. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of the intraseasonal and slow covariance matrices for the second half of the 20th century are compared with those observed by Frederiksen and Zheng (2007). The leading EOF in summer and winter for both the intraseasonal and slow components of covariability is the Southern Annular Mode (see, e.g. Kiladis and Mo 1998). This is generally reproduced by the CMIP3 models, although with different variance amounts. The observed secondary intraseasonal covariability modes of wave 4 patterns in summer and wave 3 or blocking in winter are also generally seen in the models, although the actual spatial pattern is different. For the slow covariabilty, the models are less successful in reproducing the two observed ENSO modes, with generally only one of them being represented among the leading EOFs. However, most models reproduce the observed South Pacific wave pattern. The intraseasonal and slow covariances matrices of 500hPa geopotential height under three climate change scenarios are also analysed and compared with those found for the second half of the 20th century. Through aggregating the results from a number of CMIP3 models, a consensus estimate of the changes in Southern Hemisphere variability, and their

Air-Sea Momentum and Enthalpy Exchange in Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Curcic, M.; Chen, S. S.

2016-02-01

The atmosphere and ocean are coupled through momentum, enthalpy, and mass fluxes. Accurate representation of these fluxes in a wide range of weather and climate conditions is one of major challenges in prediction models. Their current parameterizations are based on sparse observations in low-to-moderate winds and are not suited for high wind conditions such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and winter storms. In this study, we use the Unified Wave INterface - Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a high resolution, fully-coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model, to better understand the role of ocean surface waves in mediating air-sea momentum and enthalpy exchange in TCs. In particular, we focus on the explicit treatment of wave growth and dissipation for calculating atmospheric and oceanic stress, and its role in upper ocean mixing and surface cooling in the wake of the storm. Wind-wave misalignment and local wave disequilibrium result in difference between atmospheric and oceanic stress being largest on the left side of the storm. We find that explicit wave calculation in the coupled model reduces momentum transfer into the ocean by more than 10% on average, resulting in reduced cooling in TC's wake and subsequent weakening of the storm. We also investigate the impacts of sea surface temperature and upper ocean parameterization on air-sea enthalpy fluxes in the fully coupled model. High-resolution UWIN-CM simulations of TCs with various intensities and structure are conducted in this study to better understand the complex TC-ocean interaction and improve the representation of air-sea coupling processes in coupled prediction models.

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

2000-06-01

A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

2015-01-01

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

Awareness of and Attitudes towards Heat Waves within the Context of Climate Change among a Cohort of Residents in Adelaide, Australia

OpenAIRE

Akompab, Derick; Bi, Peng; Williams, Susan; Grant, Janet; Walker, Iain; Augoustinos, Martha

2012-01-01

Heat waves are a public health concern in Australia and unprecedented heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide over recent years. The aim of this study was to examine the perception and attitudes towards heat waves in the context of climate change among a group of residents in Adelaide, an Australian city with a temperate climate. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the summer of 2012 among a sample of 267 residents. The results of the survey found that television (89.9%), radio (71.2%)...

A New Wave of European Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a 2030 Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanrahan, Gina

2013-06-11

Against a complex, challenging, and often contradictory background, the EU is currently trying to decide what kind of climate and energy regime it wants and needs in the post-2020 period. Should it replicate the formula of the 2008 Climate and Energy Package to 2030 and beyond? Or are there other pathways that may prove more effective or politically palatable? The European Commission has recently published a consultation paper on a 2030 climate and energy framework and enormous efforts are being expended in Brussels and across the Member States as stakeholders work to shape to terms of the debate. This policy brief attempts to provide an understanding of the current debates and to illuminate the key challenges in designing a new wave of European climate policy. It first sets out the current EU energy and climate framework and discusses progress made to date, before going on to outline a range of key challenges in the design of a 2030 framework. This is the fourth in a series of Environment Nexus policy briefs by experts in the field of climate, energy, agriculture and water.

Travelling Waves in Hybrid Chemotaxis Models

KAUST Repository

Franz, Benjamin

2013-12-18

Hybrid models of chemotaxis combine agent-based models of cells with partial differential equation models of extracellular chemical signals. In this paper, travelling wave properties of hybrid models of bacterial chemotaxis are investigated. Bacteria are modelled using an agent-based (individual-based) approach with internal dynamics describing signal transduction. In addition to the chemotactic behaviour of the bacteria, the individual-based model also includes cell proliferation and death. Cells consume the extracellular nutrient field (chemoattractant), which is modelled using a partial differential equation. Mesoscopic and macroscopic equations representing the behaviour of the hybrid model are derived and the existence of travelling wave solutions for these models is established. It is shown that cell proliferation is necessary for the existence of non-transient (stationary) travelling waves in hybrid models. Additionally, a numerical comparison between the wave speeds of the continuum models and the hybrid models shows good agreement in the case of weak chemotaxis and qualitative agreement for the strong chemotaxis case. In the case of slow cell adaptation, we detect oscillating behaviour of the wave, which cannot be explained by mean-field approximations. © 2013 Society for Mathematical Biology.

Future changes in heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities

Science.gov (United States)

Guerreiro, Selma; Dawson, Richard; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elizabeth; Ford, Alistair

2017-04-01

Future changes in heat-waves, droughts and floods were assessed for 571 European cities. We used all available climate model runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - CMIP5 - for their higher emission scenario (RCP8.5) and grouped the projections into Low, Mid and High impact scenarios. This resulted in impact projections outside the range of published literature, but enabled us to better understand uncertainties in future climate projections (both due to climate model errors but also the effects of natural variability) therefore providing the basis for broad scale risk analysis and thereafter identification of robust adaptation strategies. While heat-waves will worsen for every European city, changes in droughts and floods are spatially variable and climate model dependent. The largest increases in the number of heat-wave days are shown to be in southern Europe, but higher heat-wave maximum temperature increases are expected in the mid-latitudes. In the low impact scenario, drought conditions are expected to intensify only in southern Europe while river flooding in expected to worsen in the north. However, in the high impact scenario most European cities show increases in both drought conditions and river flooding. There is a very wide range of projections for future changes in Europe with disagreement between different studies, partly due to their methodological differences but potentially also due to the small number of climate model runs that limits the uncertainties due to natural variability and model errors that each study captures.

The use of the k - {epsilon} turbulence model within the Rossby Centre regional ocean climate model: parameterization development and results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Markus Meier, H.E. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden). Rossby Centre

2000-09-01

As mixing plays a dominant role for the physics of an estuary like the Baltic Sea (seasonal heat storage, mixing in channels, deep water mixing), different mixing parameterizations for use in 3D Baltic Sea models are discussed and compared. For this purpose two different OGCMs of the Baltic Sea are utilized. Within the Swedish regional climate modeling program, SWECLIM, a 3D coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea has been coupled with an improved version of the two-equation k - {epsilon} turbulence model with corrected dissipation term, flux boundary conditions to include the effect of a turbulence enhanced layer due to breaking surface gravity waves and a parameterization for breaking internal waves. Results of multi-year simulations are compared with observations. The seasonal thermocline is simulated satisfactory and erosion of the halocline is avoided. Unsolved problems are discussed. To replace the controversial equation for dissipation the performance of a hierarchy of k-models has been tested and compared with the k - {epsilon} model. In addition, it is shown that the results of the mixing parameterization depend very much on the choice of the ocean model. Finally, the impact of two mixing parameterizations on Baltic Sea climate is investigated. In this case the sensitivity of mean SST, vertical temperature and salinity profiles, ice season and seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is quite large.

Modeling glacial climates

Science.gov (United States)

North, G. R.; Crowley, T. J.

1984-01-01

Mathematical climate modelling has matured as a discipline to the point that it is useful in paleoclimatology. As an example a new two dimensional energy balance model is described and applied to several problems of current interest. The model includes the seasonal cycle and the detailed land-sea geographical distribution. By examining the changes in the seasonal cycle when external perturbations are forced upon the climate system it is possible to construct hypotheses about the origin of midlatitude ice sheets and polar ice caps. In particular the model predicts a rather sudden potential for glaciation over large areas when the Earth's orbital elements are only slightly altered. Similarly, the drift of continents or the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological time induces radical changes in continental ice cover. With the advance of computer technology and improved understanding of the individual components of the climate system, these ideas will be tested in far more realistic models in the near future.

Quantification of Wave Model Uncertainties Used for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

Wave models used for site assessments are subjected to model uncertainties, which need to be quantified when using wave model results for probabilistic reliability assessments. This paper focuses on determination of wave model uncertainties. Four different wave models are considered, and validation...... data are collected from published scientific research. The bias and the root-mean-square error, as well as the scatter index, are considered for the significant wave height as well as the mean zero-crossing wave period. Based on an illustrative generic example, this paper presents how the quantified...... uncertainties can be implemented in probabilistic reliability assessments....

Determination of Wave Model Uncertainties used for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Wave models used for site assessments are subject to model uncertainties, which need to be quantified when using wave model results for probabilistic reliability assessments. This paper focuses on determination of wave model uncertainties. Considered are four different wave models and validation...... data is collected from published scientific research. The bias, the root-mean-square error as well as the scatter index are considered for the significant wave height as well as the mean zero-crossing wave period. Based on an illustrative generic example it is shown how the estimated uncertainties can...... be implemented in probabilistic reliability assessments....

Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

1999-10-01

We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

Modeling stress wave propagation in rocks by distinct lattice spring model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaofeng Zhao

2014-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the ability of the distinct lattice spring model (DLSM for modeling stress wave propagation in rocks was fully investigated. The influence of particle size on simulation of different types of stress waves (e.g. one-dimensional (1D P-wave, 1D S-wave and two-dimensional (2D cylindrical wave was studied through comparing results predicted by the DLSM with different mesh ratios (lr and those obtained from the corresponding analytical solutions. Suggested values of lr were obtained for modeling these stress waves accurately. Moreover, the weak material layer method and virtual joint plane method were used to model P-wave and S-wave propagating through a single discontinuity. The results were compared with the classical analytical solutions, indicating that the virtual joint plane method can give better results and is recommended. Finally, some remarks of the DLSM on modeling of stress wave propagation in rocks were provided.

Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first-passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on slender members of offshore structures is described. The wave elevation of the sea state is modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

1985-01-01

velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on stender members of offshore structures is described . The wave elevation of the sea stateis modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

Porous models for wave-seabed interactions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeng, Dong-Sheng [Shanghai Jiaotong Univ., SH (China)

2013-02-01

Detailed discussion about the phenomenon of wave-seabed interactions. Novel models for wave-induced seabed response. Intensive theoretical derivations for wave-seabed interactions. Practical examples for engineering applications. ''Porous Models for Wave-seabed Interactions'' discusses the Phenomenon of wave-seabed interactions, which is a vital issue for coastal and geotechnical engineers involved in the design of foundations for marine structures such as pipelines, breakwaters, platforms, etc. The most important sections of this book will be the fully detailed theoretical models of wave-seabed interaction problem, which are particularly useful for postgraduate students and junior researchers entering the discipline of marine geotechnics and offshore engineering. This book also converts the research outcomes of theoretical studies to engineering applications that will provide front-line engineers with practical and effective tools in the assessment of seabed instability in engineering design.

An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stegehuis, A.I.; Vautard, R.; Ciais, P.; Teuling, A.J.; Gonzalez Miralles, D.; Wild, M.

2015-01-01

Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes, such as heat wave conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with a large combination of different atmospheric physics schemes, in combination with the NOAH land-surface

Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

2011-01-01

Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

Humid Heat Waves at different warming levels

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, S.; Sillmann, J.; Sterl, A.

2017-12-01

The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify humid heat wave hazard in the recent past and at different levels of global warming.We find that the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves, such as the ones observed in Chicago in 1995 and China in 2003, have been strongly amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest that the percentage of area where heat wave magnitude and peak are amplified by humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering the effect of humidity at 1.5o and 2o global warming, highly populated regions, such as the Eastern US and China, could experience heat waves with magnitude greater than the one in Russia in 2010 (the most severe of the present era).The apparent temperature peak during such humid-heat waves can be greater than 55o. According to the US Weather Service, at this temperature humans are very likely to suffer from heat strokes. Humid-heat waves with these conditions were never exceeded in the present climate, but are expected to occur every other year at 4o global warming. This calls for respective adaptation measures in some key regions of the world along with international climate change mitigation efforts.

Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results

Science.gov (United States)

Huebener, Heike; Hoffmann, Peter; Keuler, Klaus; Pfeifer, Susanne; Ramthun, Hans; Spekat, Arne; Steger, Christian; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten

2017-07-01

Communication between providers and users of climate model simulation results still needs to be improved. In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De a midterm user workshop was conducted to allow the intended users of the project results to assess the preliminary results and to streamline the final project results to their needs. The user feedback highlighted, in particular, the still considerable gap between climate research output and user-tailored input for climate impact research. Two major requests from the user community addressed the selection of sub-ensembles and some condensed, easy to understand information on the strengths and weaknesses of the climate models involved in the project.

Modeling wave attenuation by salt marshes in Jamaica Bay, New York, using a new rapid wave model

Science.gov (United States)

Marsooli, Reza; Orton, Philip M.; Mellor, George

2017-07-01

Using a new rapid-computation wave model, improved and validated in the present study, we quantify the value of salt marshes in Jamaica Bay—a highly urbanized estuary located in New York City—as natural buffers against storm waves. We augment the MDO phase-averaged wave model by incorporating a vegetation-drag-induced energy dissipation term into its wave energy balance equation. We adopt an empirical formula from literature to determine the vegetation drag coefficient as a function of environmental conditions. Model evaluation using data from laboratory-scale experiments show that the improved MDO model accurately captures wave height attenuation due to submerged and emergent vegetation. We apply the validated model to Jamaica Bay to quantify the influence of coastal-scale salt marshes on storm waves. It is found that the impact of marsh islands is largest for storms with lower flood levels, due to wave breaking on the marsh island substrate. However, the role of the actual marsh plants, Spartina alterniflora, grows larger for storms with higher flood levels, when wave breaking does not occur and the vegetative drag becomes the main source of energy dissipation. For the latter case, seasonality of marsh height is important; at its maximum height in early fall, S. alterniflora causes twice the reduction as when it is at a shorter height in early summer. The model results also indicate that the vegetation drag coefficient varies 1 order of magnitude in the study area, and suggest exercising extra caution in using a constant drag coefficient in coastal wetlands.

An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stegehuis, A.I.; Vautard, R.; Ciais, P.; Teuling, A.J.; Miralles, D.G.; Wild, M.

2015-01-01

Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes, such as heat wave conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with a large combination of different atmospheric physics schemes, in combination with the NOAH land-surface

Unraveling Climatic Wind and Wave Trends in the Red Sea Using Wave Spectra Partitioning

KAUST Repository

Langodan, Sabique

2017-12-27

The wind and wave climatology of the Red Sea is derived from a validated 30-year high-resolution model simulation. After describing the relevant features of the basin, the main wind and wave systems are identified by using an innovative spectral partition technique to explain their genesis and characteristics. In the northern part of the sea, wind and waves of the same intensity are present throughout the year, while the central and southern zones are characterized by a marked seasonality. The partition technique allows the association of a general decrease in the energy of the different wave systems with a specific weather pattern. The most intense decrease is found in the northern storms, which are associated with meteorological pulses from the Mediterranean Sea.

Unraveling Climatic Wind and Wave Trends in the Red Sea Using Wave Spectra Partitioning

KAUST Repository

Langodan, Sabique; Cavaleri, Luigi; Pomaro, Angela; Portilla, Jesus; Abualnaja, Yasser; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-01-01

The wind and wave climatology of the Red Sea is derived from a validated 30-year high-resolution model simulation. After describing the relevant features of the basin, the main wind and wave systems are identified by using an innovative spectral partition technique to explain their genesis and characteristics. In the northern part of the sea, wind and waves of the same intensity are present throughout the year, while the central and southern zones are characterized by a marked seasonality. The partition technique allows the association of a general decrease in the energy of the different wave systems with a specific weather pattern. The most intense decrease is found in the northern storms, which are associated with meteorological pulses from the Mediterranean Sea.

The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Dommenget, D.

2013-12-01

The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

Instantaneous wave emission model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruer, W.L.

1970-12-01

A useful treatment of electrostatic wave emission by fast particles in a plasma is given. First, the potential due to a fast particle is expressed as a simple integration over the particle orbit; several interesting results readily follow. The potential in the wake of an accelerating particle is shown to be essentially that produced through local excitation of the plasma by the particle free-streaming about its instantaneous orbit. Application is made to one dimension, and it is shown that the wave emission and adsorption synchronize to the instantaneous velocity distribution function. Guided by these calculations, we then formulate a test particle model for computing the instantaneous wave emission by fast particles in a Vlasov plasma. This model lends itself to physical interpretation and provides a direct approach to many problems. By adopting a Fokker-Planck description for the particle dynamics, we calculate the broadening of the wave-particle resonance due to velocity diffusion and drag

On coupling global biome models with climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

Modeling the water balance of sloped vineyards under various climate change scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hofmann Marco

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture, models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up to 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over two years. The results showed good agreement of modelled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in soil water holding capacity. The model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes.

Regionalizing global climate models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

2012-01-01

Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

Hydro-climatic conditions and thermoelectric electricity generation – Part I: Development of models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koch, Hagen; Vögele, Stefan

2013-01-01

In recent years there have been several heat waves affecting the use of thermoelectric power plants, e.g. in Europe and the U.S. In this paper the linkage between hydro-climatic conditions and possible electricity generation restrictions is described. The coupling of hydrological models and a power plant model is presented. In this approach each power plant is considered separately with its technical specifications. Also environmental regulations, e.g. permissible rise in the cooling water temperature, are considered for the respective power plant. The hydrological models developed to simulate river runoff and water temperature are also site specific. The approach presented is applied to Krümmel nuclear power plant in Germany. Analysed are the uncertainties with regard to electricity generation restrictions on account of climatic developments and corresponding higher water temperatures and low flows. Overall, increased water temperatures and declining river runoff lead to more frequent and more severe generation restrictions. It is concluded that the site-specific approach is necessary to reliably simulate power plants water demand, river runoff and water temperature. Using a simulation time step of one day, electricity generation restrictions are significantly higher than for simulations at monthly time step. - Highlights: • An approach to assess climate effects on electricity generation is presented. • Site specific models for power plants, water temperature and discharge are used. • Monthly and daily simulation time-steps give different results. • Climate change effects on generation depend on cooling system and climate scenario

Experimental modelling of wave amplification over irregular bathymetry for investigations of boulder transport by extreme wave events.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Boyle, Louise; Whittaker, Trevor; Cox, Ronadh; Elsäßer, Björn

2017-04-01

nearshore multibeam sonar survey. Water surface elevation is recorded using twin-wire resistance type wave probes along a shore-normal bathymetry transect as the waves shoal. Variations in significant wave height and maximum elevation are presented for both regular and irregular bathymetry and for a number of typical North Atlantic sea states. These results are significant for calibration of numerical wave propagation models over irregular bathymetry and for those seeking to understand the magnitude of nearshore extreme wave events. References [1] Met Éireann, 2014, Winter 2013/2014: Monthly Weather Bulletin, December issue, p. 1-5. http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/winterstorms13_14.pdf. [2] Cox, R. et. al., 2016, Movement of boulders and megagravel by storm waves Vol. 18, EGU2016-10535, 2016 EGU General Assembly 2016

Modeling ionization by helicon waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Degeling, A.W.; Boswell, R.W.

1997-01-01

The response of the electron distribution function in one dimension to a traveling wave electric field is modeled for parameters relevant to a low-pressure helicon wave plasma source, and the resulting change in the ionization rate calculated. This is done by calculating the trajectories of individual electrons in a given wave field and assuming no collisions to build up the distribution function as the distance from the antenna is increased. The ionization rate is calculated for argon by considering the ionization cross section and electron flux at a specified position and time relative to the left-hand boundary, where the distribution function is assumed to be Maxwellian and the wave travels to the right. The simulation shows pulses in the ionization rate that move away from the antenna at the phase velocity of the wave, demonstrating the effect of resonant electrons trapped in the wave close-quote s frame of reference. It is found that the ionization rate is highest when the phase velocity of the wave is between 2 and 3x10 6 m/s, where the electrons interacting strongly with the wave (i.e., electrons with velocities inside the wave close-quote s open-quotes trapping widthclose quotes) have initial energies just below the ionization threshold. Results from the model are compared with experimental data and show reasonable qualitative agreement. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

Numerical simulation of wave-induced scour and backfilling processes beneath submarine pipelines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuhrman, David R.; Baykal, Cüneyt; Sumer, B. Mutlu

2014-01-01

A fully-coupled hydrodynamic/morphodynamic numerical model is presented and utilized for the simulation of wave-induced scour and backfilling processes beneath submarine pipelines. The model is based on solutions to Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, coupled with k−ω turbulence closure......≤30 demonstrate reasonable match with previous experiments, both in terms of the equilibrium scour depth as well as the scour time scale. Wave-induced backfilling processes are additionally studied by subjecting initial conditions taken from scour simulations with larger KC to new wave climates...... characterized by lower KC values. The simulations considered demonstrate the ability of the model to predict backfilling toward expected equilibrium scour depths based on the new wave climate, in line with experimental expectations. The simulated backfilling process is characterized by two stages: (1...

Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

2011-02-01

Devastating health effects from recent heat waves, and projected increases in frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves from climate change, highlight the importance of understanding health consequences of heat waves. We analyzed mortality risk for heat waves in 43 U.S. cities (1987-2005) and investigated how effects relate to heat waves' intensity, duration, or timing in season. Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile for the community for 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, and timing in season. Within each community, we estimated mortality risk during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days, controlling for potential confounders. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate overall effects at the community, regional, and national levels. We estimated how heat wave mortality effects were modified by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, timing in season). Nationally, mortality increased 3.74% [95% posterior interval (PI), 2.29-5.22%] during heat waves compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality risk increased 2.49% for every 1°F increase in heat wave intensity and 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. Mortality increased 5.04% (95% PI, 3.06-7.06%) during the first heat wave of the summer versus 2.65% (95% PI, 1.14-4.18%) during later heat waves, compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality impacts and effect modification by heat wave characteristics were more pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest compared with the South. We found higher mortality risk from heat waves that were more intense or longer, or those occurring earlier in summer. These findings have implications for decision makers and researchers estimating health effects from climate change.

Modeling of Mud-Wave Interaction: Mud-Induced Wave Transport & Wave-Induced Mud Transport

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Winterwerp, Johan C

2007-01-01

.... Also a new rheological model has been proposed to describe liquefaction of soft mud by waves, and the subsequent strength recovery after the passage of the waves. A scheme is presented on how to implement these formulations in Delft3D.

Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Steffens

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses.

Extreme Wave Analysis by Integrating Model and Wave Buoy Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabio Dentale

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Estimating the extreme values of significant wave height (HS, generally described by the HS return period TR function HS(TR and by its confidence intervals, is a necessity in many branches of coastal science and engineering. The availability of indirect wave data generated by global and regional wind and wave model chains have brought radical changes to the estimation procedures of such probability distribution—weather and wave modeling systems are routinely run all over the world, and HS time series for each grid point are produced and published after assimilation (analysis of the ground truth. However, while the sources of such indirect data are numerous, and generally of good quality, many aspects of their procedures are hidden to the users, who cannot evaluate the reliability and the limits of the HS(TR deriving from such data. In order to provide a simple engineering tool to evaluate the probability of extreme sea-states as well as the quality of such estimates, we propose here a procedure based on integrating HS time series generated by model chains with those recorded by wave buoys in the same area.

Extreme wind-wave modeling and analysis in the south Atlantic ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Campos, R. M.; Alves, J. H. G. M.; Guedes Soares, C.; Guimaraes, L. G.; Parente, C. E.

2018-04-01

A set of wave hindcasts is constructed using two different types of wind calibration, followed by an additional test retuning the input source term Sin in the wave model. The goal is to improve the simulation in extreme wave events in the South Atlantic Ocean without compromising average conditions. Wind fields are based on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR/NCEP). The first wind calibration applies a simple linear regression model, with coefficients obtained from the comparison of CFSR against buoy data. The second is a method where deficiencies of the CFSR associated with severe sea state events are remedied, whereby "defective" winds are replaced with satellite data within cyclones. A total of six wind datasets forced WAVEWATCH-III and additional three tests with modified Sin in WAVEWATCH III lead to a total of nine wave hindcasts that are evaluated against satellite and buoy data for ambient and extreme conditions. The target variable considered is the significant wave height (Hs). The increase of sea-state severity shows a progressive increase of the hindcast underestimation which could be calculated as a function of percentiles. The wind calibration using a linear regression function shows similar results to the adjustments to Sin term (increase of βmax parameter) in WAVEWATCH-III - it effectively reduces the average bias of Hs but cannot avoid the increase of errors with percentiles. The use of blended scatterometer winds within cyclones could reduce the increasing wave hindcast errors mainly above the 93rd percentile and leads to a better representation of Hs at the peak of the storms. The combination of linear regression calibration of non-cyclonic winds with scatterometer winds within the cyclones generated a wave hindcast with small errors from calm to extreme conditions. This approach led to a reduction of the percentage error of Hs from 14% to less than 8% for extreme waves, while also improving the RMSE.

Wave Reflection Model Tests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burcharth, H. F.; Larsen, Brian Juul

The investigation concerns the design of a new internal breakwater in the main port of Ibiza. The objective of the model tests was in the first hand to optimize the cross section to make the wave reflection low enough to ensure that unacceptable wave agitation will not occur in the port. Secondly...

Experimental Modeling of the Overtopping Flow on the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parmeggiani, Stefano; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Friis-Madsen, Erik

2011-01-01

The Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter is currently facing a precommercial phase. At this stage of development a reliable overtopping model is highly required, in order to predict the performance of the device at possible deployment locations. A model formulation derived for an overtopping device...... with general geometry has been used so far. The paper presents an updated formulation drawn through the tank testing of a scaled model the Wave Dragon. The sensitivity analysis of the main features influencing the overtopping flow led to an updated model formulation which can be specifically suited...... for the Wave Dragon....

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

Science.gov (United States)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

Coupling alongshore variations in wave energy to beach morphologic change using the SWAN wave model at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, CA

Science.gov (United States)

Eshleman, Jodi L.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.; Hanes, Daniel M.

2007-01-01

Coastal managers have faced increasing pressure to manage their resources wisely over the last century as a result of heightened development and changing environmental forcing. It is crucial to understand seasonal changes in beach volume and shape in order to identify areas vulnerable to accelerated erosion. Shepard (1950) was among the first to quantify seasonal beach cycles. Sonu and Van Beek (1971) and Wright et al. (1985) described commonly occurring beach states. Most studies utilize widest spaced 2-D cross shore profiles or shorelines extracted from aerial photographs (e.g. Winant et al. 1975; Aubrey, 1979, Aubrey and Ross, 1985; Larson and Kraus, 1994; Jimenez et al., 1977; Lacey and Peck, 1998; Guillen et al., 1999; Norcorss et al., 2002) to analyzed systematic changes in beach evolution. But with the exception of established field stations, such as Duck, NC (Birkemeier and Mason, 1984), ans Hazaki Oceanographical Research Station (HORS) in Japan (Katoh, 1997), there are very few beach change data sets with high temporal and spatial resolutions (e.g. Dail et al., 2000; Ruggiero et al., 2005; Yates et al., in press). Comprehensive sets of nearshore morphological data and local in situ measurements outside of these field stations are very rare and virtually non-existent high-energy coasts. Studied that have attempted to relate wave statistics to beach morphology change require some knowledge of the nearshore wave climate, and have had limited success using offshore measurement (Sonu and Van Beek, 1971; Dail et al., 2000). The primary objective of this study is to qualitatively compare spatially variable nearshore wave predictions to beach change measurements in order to understand the processes responsible for a persistent erosion 'hotspot' at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, CA. Local wave measurements are used to calibrate and validate a wave model that provides nearshore wave prediction along the beach. The model is run for thousands of binned offshore wave

Assessing the impacts of droughts and heat waves at thermoelectric power plants in the United States using integrated regression, thermodynamic, and climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret A. Cook

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Recent droughts and heat waves have revealed the vulnerability of some power plants to effects from higher temperature intake water for cooling. In this evaluation, we develop a methodology for predicting whether power plants are at risk of violating thermal pollution limits. We begin by developing a regression model of average monthly intake temperatures for open loop and recirculating cooling pond systems. We then integrate that information into a thermodynamic model of energy flows within each power plant to determine the change in cooling water temperature that occurs at each plant and the relationship of that water temperature to other plants in the river system. We use these models together with climate change models to estimate the monthly effluent temperature at twenty-six power plants in the Upper Mississippi River Basin and Texas between 2015 and 2035 to predict which ones are at risk of reaching thermal pollution limits. The intake model shows that two plants could face elevated intake temperatures between 2015 and 2035 compared to the 2010–2013 baseline. In general, a rise in ambient cooling water temperature of 1 °C could cause a drop in power output of 0.15%–0.5%. The energy balance shows that twelve plants might exceed state summer effluent limits.

Modeling North Atlantic Nor'easters With Modern Wave Forecast Models

Science.gov (United States)

Perrie, Will; Toulany, Bechara; Roland, Aron; Dutour-Sikiric, Mathieu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Qi, Jianhua; Hu, Yongcun; Casey, Michael P.; Shen, Hui

2018-01-01

Three state-of-the-art operational wave forecast model systems are implemented on fine-resolution grids for the Northwest Atlantic. These models are: (1) a composite model system consisting of SWAN implemented within WAVEWATCHIII® (the latter is hereafter, WW3) on a nested system of traditional structured grids, (2) an unstructured grid finite-volume wave model denoted "SWAVE," using SWAN physics, and (3) an unstructured grid finite element wind wave model denoted as "WWM" (for "wind wave model") which uses WW3 physics. Models are implemented on grid systems that include relatively large domains to capture the wave energy generated by the storms, as well as including fine-resolution nearshore regions of the southern Gulf of Maine with resolution on the scale of 25 m to simulate areas where inundation and coastal damage have occurred, due to the storms. Storm cases include three intense midlatitude cases: a spring Nor'easter storm in May 2005, the Patriot's Day storm in 2007, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010. Although these wave model systems have comparable overall properties in terms of their performance and skill, it is found that there are differences. Models that use more advanced physics, as presented in recent versions of WW3, tuned to regional characteristics, as in the Gulf of Maine and the Northwest Atlantic, can give enhanced results.

A test-bed modeling study for wave resource assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Z.; Neary, V. S.; Wang, T.; Gunawan, B.; Dallman, A.

2016-02-01

Hindcasts from phase-averaged wave models are commonly used to estimate standard statistics used in wave energy resource assessments. However, the research community and wave energy converter industry is lacking a well-documented and consistent modeling approach for conducting these resource assessments at different phases of WEC project development, and at different spatial scales, e.g., from small-scale pilot study to large-scale commercial deployment. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate current wave model codes, as well as limitations and knowledge gaps for predicting sea states, in order to establish best wave modeling practices, and to identify future research needs to improve wave prediction for resource assessment. This paper presents the first phase of an on-going modeling study to address these concerns. The modeling study is being conducted at a test-bed site off the Central Oregon Coast using two of the most widely-used third-generation wave models - WaveWatchIII and SWAN. A nested-grid modeling approach, with domain dimension ranging from global to regional scales, was used to provide wave spectral boundary condition to a local scale model domain, which has a spatial dimension around 60km by 60km and a grid resolution of 250m - 300m. Model results simulated by WaveWatchIII and SWAN in a structured-grid framework are compared to NOAA wave buoy data for the six wave parameters, including omnidirectional wave power, significant wave height, energy period, spectral width, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power, and directionality coefficient. Model performance and computational efficiency are evaluated, and the best practices for wave resource assessments are discussed, based on a set of standard error statistics and model run times.

On coupling global biome models with climate models

OpenAIRE

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

Modeling storm waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch.

1999-01-01

Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

Lagrangian modelling of ocean surface waves and synthetic aperture radar wave measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fouques, Sebastien

2005-07-01

The present thesis is concerned with the estimation of the ocean wave spectrum from synthetic aperture radar imaging and the modelling of ocean surface waves using the Lagrangian formalism. The first part gives a short overview of the theories of ocean surface waves and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) whereas the second part consists of five independent publications. The first two articles investigate the influence of the radar backscatter model on the SAR imaging of ocean waves. In Article I, Monte Carlo simulations of SAR images of the ocean surface are carried out using a nonlinear backscatter model that include both specular reflection and Bragg scattering and the results are compared to simulations from the classical Hasselmann integral transform (Hasselmann and Hasselmann, 1991). It is shown that nonlinearities in the backscatter model strongly influence the imaging of range-travelling waves and that the former can suppress the range-splitting effect (Bruning et al., 1988). Furthermore, in Article II a database of Envisat-ASAR Wave Mode products co-located with directional wave spectra from the numerical model WAM and which contains range-travelling wave cases only, is set up. The WAM spectra are used as input to several ocean-to-SAR integral transforms, with various real aperture radar (RAR) models and the obtained SAR image cross-spectra are compared to the Envisat-ASAR observations. A first result is that the use of a linear backscatter model leads to a high proportion of non-physical negative backscatter values in the RAR image, as suggested by Schulz-Stellenfleth (2001). Then, a comparison between the observed SAR cross-spectra and the ones simulated through Hasselmann's integral transform reveals that only twenty percents of the observations show a range-splitting effect as strong as in the simulations. A much better agreement is obtained when using the integral transform by Schulz-Stellenfleth (2003), which is based on a nonlinear hackscatter model

Overview of Wave to Wire Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Kim; Kramer, Morten Mejlhede; Ferri, Francesco

A “Wave to Wire” (W2W) model is a numerical tool that can calculate the power output from a specified Wave Energy Converter (WEC), under specified ocean wave conditions. The tool can be used to assess and optimize the performance of a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) design and provide knowledge...

Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III.

1992-08-01

Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today's climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling

Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, J.; Lacis, A.; Miller, R.; Schmidt, G.A.; Russell, G.; Canuto, V.; Del Genio, A.; Hall, T.; Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, S.; Chandler, M.; Faluvegi, G.; Jonas, J.; Ruedy, R.; Lo, K.; Cheng, Y.; Lacis, A.; Schmidt, G.A.; Del Genio, A.; Miller, R.; Cairns, B.; Hall, T.; Baum, E.; Cohen, A.; Fleming, E.; Jackman, C.; Friend, A.; Kelley, M.

2007-01-01

We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcing. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcing, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcing are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcing, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcing, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcing, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistic weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcing are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. (authors)

Urban Heat Wave Vulnerability Analysis Considering Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

JE, M.; KIM, H.; Jung, S.

2017-12-01

Much attention has been paid to thermal environments in Seoul City in South Korea since 2016 when the worst heatwave in 22 years. It is necessary to provide a selective measure by singling out vulnerable regions in advance to cope with the heat wave-related damage. This study aims to analyze and categorize vulnerable regions of thermal environments in the Seoul and analyzes and discusses the factors and risk factors for each type. To do this, this study conducted the following processes: first, based on the analyzed various literature reviews, indices that can evaluate vulnerable regions of thermal environment are collated. The indices were divided into climate exposure index related to temperature, sensitivity index including demographic, social, and economic indices, and adaptation index related to urban environment and climate adaptation policy status. Second, significant variables were derived to evaluate a vulnerable region of thermal environment based on the summarized indices in the above. this study analyzed a relationship between the number of heat-related patients in Seoul and variables that affected the number using multi-variate statistical analysis to derive significant variables. Third, the importance of each variable was calculated quantitatively by integrating the statistical analysis results and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Fourth, a distribution of data for each index was identified based on the selected variables and indices were normalized and overlapped. Fifth, For the climate exposure index, evaluations were conducted as same as the current vulnerability evaluation method by selecting future temperature of Seoul predicted through the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios as an evaluation variable. The results of this study can be utilized as foundational data to establish a countermeasure against heatwave in Seoul. Although it is limited to control heatwave occurrences itself completely, improvements

Modelling of the Overtopping Flow on the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parmeggiani, Stefano; Pecher, Arthur; Kofoed, Jens Peter

2010-01-01

The Wave Dragon is a floating slack-moored Wave Energy Converter of the overtopping type, which is facing now the last phase of development before the commercial exploitation: the deployment of a full-scale demonstrator. In this phase a modelling tool allowing for accurate predictions of the perf......The Wave Dragon is a floating slack-moored Wave Energy Converter of the overtopping type, which is facing now the last phase of development before the commercial exploitation: the deployment of a full-scale demonstrator. In this phase a modelling tool allowing for accurate predictions...

Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, A. C.

2016-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

An introduction to atmospheric gravity waves

CERN Document Server

Nappo, Carmen J

2012-01-01

Gravity waves exist in all types of geophysical fluids, such as lakes, oceans, and atmospheres. They play an important role in redistributing energy at disturbances, such as mountains or seamounts and they are routinely studied in meteorology and oceanography, particularly simulation models, atmospheric weather models, turbulence, air pollution, and climate research. An Introduction to Atmospheric Gravity Waves provides readers with a working background of the fundamental physics and mathematics of gravity waves, and introduces a wide variety of applications and numerous recent advances. Nappo provides a concise volume on gravity waves with a lucid discussion of current observational techniques and instrumentation.An accompanying website contains real data, computer codes for data analysis, and linear gravity wave models to further enhance the reader's understanding of the book's material. Companion web site features animations and streaming video Foreword by George Chimonas, a renowned expert on the interac...

The SAO and Kelvin waves in the EuroGRIPS GCMS and the UK Met. Office analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Amodei

Full Text Available We compare the tropical oscillations and planetary scale Kelvin waves in four troposphere-stratosphere climate models and the assimilated dataset produced by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO. The comparison has been made in the GRIPS framework "GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC", where SPARC is Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate, a project of the World Climate Research Program. The four models evaluated are European members of GRIPS: the UKMO Unified Model (UM, the model of the Free University in Berlin (FUB–GCM, the ARPEGE-climat model of the French National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM, and the Extended UGAMP GCM (EUGCM of the Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling (CGAM. The integrations were performed with different, but annually periodic external conditions (e.g., sea-surface temperature, sea ice, and incoming solar radiation. The structure of the tropical winds and the strengths of the Kelvin waves are examined. In the analyses where the SAO (Semi-Annual Oscillation and the QBO (Quasi-Biennal Oscillation are reasonably well captured, the amplitude of these analysed Kelvin waves is close to that observed in independent data from UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. In agreement with observations, the Kelvin waves generated in the models propagate into the middle atmosphere as wave packets, consistent with a convective forcing origin. In three of the models, slow Kelvin waves propagate too high and their amplitudes are overestimated in the upper stratosphere and in the mesosphere, the exception is the UM which has weaker waves. None of the modelled waves are sufficient to force realistic eastward phases of the QBO or SAO. Although the SAO is represented by all models, only two of them are able to generate westerlies between 10 hPa and 50 hPa. The importance of the role played in the SAO by unresolved gravity waves is emphasized. Although it exhibits some unrealistic features, the

The SAO and Kelvin waves in the EuroGRIPS GCMS and the UK Met. Office analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Amodei

2001-01-01

Full Text Available We compare the tropical oscillations and planetary scale Kelvin waves in four troposphere-stratosphere climate models and the assimilated dataset produced by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO. The comparison has been made in the GRIPS framework "GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC", where SPARC is Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate, a project of the World Climate Research Program. The four models evaluated are European members of GRIPS: the UKMO Unified Model (UM, the model of the Free University in Berlin (FUB–GCM, the ARPEGE-climat model of the French National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM, and the Extended UGAMP GCM (EUGCM of the Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling (CGAM. The integrations were performed with different, but annually periodic external conditions (e.g., sea-surface temperature, sea ice, and incoming solar radiation. The structure of the tropical winds and the strengths of the Kelvin waves are examined. In the analyses where the SAO (Semi-Annual Oscillation and the QBO (Quasi-Biennal Oscillation are reasonably well captured, the amplitude of these analysed Kelvin waves is close to that observed in independent data from UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. In agreement with observations, the Kelvin waves generated in the models propagate into the middle atmosphere as wave packets, consistent with a convective forcing origin. In three of the models, slow Kelvin waves propagate too high and their amplitudes are overestimated in the upper stratosphere and in the mesosphere, the exception is the UM which has weaker waves. None of the modelled waves are sufficient to force realistic eastward phases of the QBO or SAO. Although the SAO is represented by all models, only two of them are able to generate westerlies between 10 hPa and 50 hPa. The importance of the role played in the SAO by unresolved gravity waves is emphasized. Although it exhibits some unrealistic features, the

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

2011-12-01

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Mahowald

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

Radio wave propagation and parabolic equation modeling

CERN Document Server

Apaydin, Gokhan

2018-01-01

A thorough understanding of electromagnetic wave propagation is fundamental to the development of sophisticated communication and detection technologies. The powerful numerical methods described in this book represent a major step forward in our ability to accurately model electromagnetic wave propagation in order to establish and maintain reliable communication links, to detect targets in radar systems, and to maintain robust mobile phone and broadcasting networks. The first new book on guided wave propagation modeling and simulation to appear in nearly two decades, Radio Wave Propagation and Parabolic Equation Modeling addresses the fundamentals of electromagnetic wave propagation generally, with a specific focus on radio wave propagation through various media. The authors explore an array of new applications, and detail various v rtual electromagnetic tools for solving several frequent electromagnetic propagation problems. All of the methods described are presented within the context of real-world scenari...

Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li; Hegermiller, Christie

2016-01-01

Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

Construction of a novel economy-climate model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CHOU JieMing; DONG WenJie; YE DuZheng

2007-01-01

An attempt has been made to construct a novel economy-climate model by combining climate change research with agricultural economy research to evaluate the influence of global climate change on grain yields. The insertion of a climate change factor into the economic C-D (Cobb-Dauglas) production function model yields a novel evaluation model, which connects the climate change factor to the economic variation factor, and the performance and reasonableness of the novel evaluation model are also preliminarily simulated and verified.

Model for Shock Wave Chaos

KAUST Repository

Kasimov, Aslan R.; Faria, Luiz; Rosales, Rodolfo R.

2013-01-01

: steady traveling wave solutions, instability of such solutions, and the onset of chaos. Our model is the first (to our knowledge) to describe chaos in shock waves by a scalar first-order partial differential equation. The chaos arises in the equation

Changes in the shoreline at Paradip Port, India in response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Gopikrishna, B.; Deo, M. C.

2018-02-01

One of the popular methods to predict shoreline shifts into the future involves use of a shoreline evolution model driven by the historical wave climate. It is however understood by now that historical wave conditions might substantially change in future in response to climate change induced by the global warming. The future shoreline changes as well as sediment transport therefore need to be determined with the help of future projections of wave climate. In this work this is done at the port of Paradip situated along the east coast of India. The high resolution wind resulting from a climate modelling experiment called: CORDEX, South Asia, was used to simulate waves over two time-slices of 25 years each in past and future. The wave simulations were carried out with the help of a numerical wave model. Thereafter, rates of longshore sediment transport as well as shoreline shifts were determined over past and future using a numerical shoreline model. It was found that at Paradip Port the net littoral drift per metre width of cross-shore might go up by 37% and so also the net accumulated drift over the entire cross-shore width by 71%. This could be caused by an increase in the mean significant wave height of around 32% and also by changes in the frequency and direction of waves. The intensification of waves in turn might result from an increase in the mean wind speed of around 19%. Similarly, the horizontal extent of the beach accretion and erosion at the port's southern breakwater might go up by 4 m and 8 m, respectively, from the current level in another 25 years. This study should be useful in framing future port management strategies.

Multi-Decadal Coastal Behavioural States From A Fusion Of Geohistorical Conceptual Modelling With 2-D Morphodynamic Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Goodwin, I. D.; Mortlock, T.

2016-02-01

Geohistorical archives of shoreline and foredune planform geometry provides a unique evidence-based record of the time integral response to coupled directional wave climate and sediment supply variability on annual to multi-decadal time scales. We develop conceptual shoreline modelling from the geohistorical shoreline archive using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, and historical bathymetry. The conceptual modelling allows for the discrimination of directional wave climate shifts and the relative contributions of cross-shore and along-shore sand supply rates at multi-decadal resolution. We present regional examples from south-eastern Australia over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) that illustrate the morphodynamic evolution and reorganization to wave climate change. We then use the conceptual modeling to inform a two-dimensional coupled spectral wave-hydrodynamic-morphodynamic model to investigate the shoreface response to paleo-directional wind and wave climates. Unlike one-line shoreline modelling, this fully dynamical approach allows for the investigation of cumulative and spatial bathymetric change due to wave-induced currents, as well as proxy-shoreline change. The fusion of the two modeling approaches allows for: (i) the identification of the natural range of coastal planform geometries in response to wave climate shifts; and, (ii) the decomposition of the multidecadal coastal change into the cross-shore and along-shore sand supply drivers, according to the best-matching planforms.

Validating predictions from climate envelope models

Science.gov (United States)

Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James I Watling

Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

Effect of climate change on morphology around a port

Science.gov (United States)

Bharathan Radhamma, R.; Deo, M. C.

2017-12-01

It is well known that with the construction of a port and harbour structure the natural shoreline gets interrupted and this disturbs the surrounding coastal morphology. Added to this concern is another one of recent origin, namely, the likely impact of climate change induced by global warming. The present work addresses this issue by describing a case study at New Mangalore Port situated along the west coast of India. The harbour was formed by constructing two breakwaters along either side of the port since the year 1975. We have first determined the rate of change of the shoreline surrounding the port using historic satellite imageries over a period of 36 years. Thereafter a numerical shoreline change model: LITPACK was used to do the same and it was forced by waves simulated over a period of past 36 years varying from 1979 to 2016 and future 36 years ranging from 2016 to 2052. The wave simulation was done with the help of numerical wave model: Mike21-SW which was driven by the wind from a regional climate model called CORDEX. This climate model was earlier run for a moderate global warming pathway called: RCP-4.5. The analysis of satellite imageries indicated that in the past the shoreline change varied from -1.69 m/year to 2.56 m/year with an uncertainty of ± 0.35 m/year and approximately half of the coastal stretch faced extensive erosion. It was found that the wind and waves at this region would intensify in future and also raise the probability of occurrence of high waves. As per the numerical shoreline modelling this would give rise to a much enhanced rate of erosion, namely -2.87 m/year to -3.62 m/year. This would call for a modified shoreline management strategy around the port area. The study highlights the importance of considering potential changes in wind and wave forcing because of the climate change in evaluating future rates of shoreline changes around a port and harbour structure.

Climate change signal and uncertainty in CMIP5-based projections of global ocean surface wave heights

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaolan L.; Feng, Yang; Swail, Val R.

2015-05-01

This study uses the analysis of variance approaches to quantify the climate change signal and uncertainty in multimodel ensembles of statistical simulations of significant wave height (Hs), which are based on the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenario simulations of sea level pressure. Here the signal of climate change refers to the temporal variations caused by the prescribed forcing. "Significant" means "significantly different from zero at 5% level." In a four-model ensemble of Hs simulations, the common signal—the signal that is simulated in all the four models—is found to strengthen over time. For the historical followed by RCP8.5 scenario, the common signal in annual mean Hs is found to be significant in 16.6% and 82.2% of the area by year 2005 and 2099, respectively. The global average of the variance proportion of the common signal increases from 0.75% in year 2005 to 12.0% by year 2099. The signal is strongest in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), featuring significant increases in both the annual mean and maximum of Hs in this region. The climate model uncertainty (i.e., intermodel variability) is significant nearly globally; its magnitude is comparable to or greater than that of the common signal in most areas, except in the ETP where the signal is much larger. In a 20-model ensemble of Hs simulations for the period 2006-2099, the model uncertainty is found to be significant globally; it is about 10 times as large as the variability between the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The copyright line for this article was changed on 10 JUNE 2015 after original online publication.

A methodology for spectral wave model evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Siqueira, S. A.; Edwards, K. L.; Rogers, W. E.

2017-12-01

Model evaluation is accomplished by comparing bulk parameters (e.g., significant wave height, energy period, and mean square slope (MSS)) calculated from the model energy spectra with those calculated from buoy energy spectra. Quality control of the observed data and choice of the frequency range from which the bulk parameters are calculated are critical steps in ensuring the validity of the model-data comparison. The compared frequency range of each observation and the analogous model output must be identical, and the optimal frequency range depends in part on the reliability of the observed spectra. National Data Buoy Center 3-m discus buoy spectra are unreliable above 0.3 Hz due to a non-optimal buoy response function correction. As such, the upper end of the spectrum should not be included when comparing a model to these data. Bioufouling of Waverider buoys must be detected, as it can harm the hydrodynamic response of the buoy at high frequencies, thereby rendering the upper part of the spectrum unsuitable for comparison. An important consideration is that the intentional exclusion of high frequency energy from a validation due to data quality concerns (above) can have major implications for validation exercises, especially for parameters such as the third and fourth moments of the spectrum (related to Stokes drift and MSS, respectively); final conclusions can be strongly altered. We demonstrate this by comparing outcomes with and without the exclusion, in a case where a Waverider buoy is believed to be free of biofouling. Determination of the appropriate frequency range is not limited to the observed spectra. Model evaluation involves considering whether all relevant frequencies are included. Guidance to make this decision is based on analysis of observed spectra. Two model frequency lower limits were considered. Energy in the observed spectrum below the model lower limit was calculated for each. For locations where long swell is a component of the wave

Wave and Wind Model Performance Metrics Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, J. K.; Wang, D. W.

2016-02-01

Continual improvements and upgrades of Navy ocean wave and wind models are essential to the assurance of battlespace environment predictability of ocean surface wave and surf conditions in support of Naval global operations. Thus, constant verification and validation of model performance is equally essential to assure the progress of model developments and maintain confidence in the predictions. Global and regional scale model evaluations may require large areas and long periods of time. For observational data to compare against, altimeter winds and waves along the tracks from past and current operational satellites as well as moored/drifting buoys can be used for global and regional coverage. Using data and model runs in previous trials such as the planned experiment, the Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real Time (DART), we demonstrated the use of accumulated altimeter wind and wave data over several years to obtain an objective evaluation of the performance the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model running in the Adriatic Sea. The assessment provided detailed performance of wind and wave models by using cell-averaged statistical variables maps with spatial statistics including slope, correlation, and scatter index to summarize model performance. Such a methodology is easily generalized to other regions and at global scales. Operational technology currently used by subject matter experts evaluating the Navy Coastal Ocean Model and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model can be expanded to evaluate wave and wind models using tools developed for ArcMAP, a GIS application developed by ESRI. Recent inclusion of altimeter and buoy data into a format through the Naval Oceanographic Office's (NAVOCEANO) quality control system and the netCDF standards applicable to all model output makes it possible for the fusion of these data and direct model verification. Also, procedures were developed for the accumulation of match-ups of modelled and observed parameters to form a data base

Waves, currents and sediment transport modelling at the Wave Hub site

OpenAIRE

Gonzalez-Santamaria, Raul

2013-01-01

Primary supervisory team: Qingping Zou and Shunqi Pan This research project uses an integrated modelling system to investigate the effects of a wave farm on nearshore sediment transport at the Wave Hub site. The Wave Hub project is a large scale demonstration site for the development of the operation of arrays of wave energy generation devices located at the southwest coast of the UK where multiple field measurements took place. Particular attention of this study was paid to th...

Swell impact on wind stress and atmospheric mixing in a regional coupled atmosphere-wave model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Lichuan; Rutgersson, Anna; Sahlée, Erik

2016-01-01

Over the ocean, the atmospheric turbulence can be significantly affected by swell waves. Change in the atmospheric turbulence affects the wind stress and atmospheric mixing over swell waves. In this study, the influence of swell on atmospheric mixing and wind stress is introduced into an atmosphere-wave-coupled...... regional climate model, separately and combined. The swell influence on atmospheric mixing is introduced into the atmospheric mixing length formula by adding a swell-induced contribution to the mixing. The swell influence on the wind stress under wind-following swell, moderate-range wind, and near......-neutral and unstable stratification conditions is introduced by changing the roughness length. Five year simulation results indicate that adding the swell influence on atmospheric mixing has limited influence, only slightly increasing the near-surface wind speed; in contrast, adding the swell influence on wind stress...

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2010-12-15

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

2016-01-01

Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

2016-01-01

Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2016-01-01

Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

2011-01-01

This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul

2015-10-01

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO₂ concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.

Model wave functions for the deuteron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Certov, A.; Mathelitsch, L.; Moravcsik, M.J.

1987-01-01

Model wave functions are constructed for the deuteron to facilitate the unambiguous exploration of dependencies on the percentage D state and on the small-, medium-, and large-distance parts of the deuteron wave function. The wave functions are constrained by those deuteron properties which are accurately known experimentally, and are in an analytic form which is easily integrable in expressions usually encountered in the use of such wave functions

Wave Generation in Physical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Frigaard, Peter

The present book describes the most important aspects of wave generation techniques in physical models. Moreover, the book serves as technical documentation for the wave generation software AwaSys 6, cf. Aalborg University (2012). In addition to the two main authors also Tue Hald and Michael...

Projected Heat Wave Characteristics over the Korean Peninsula During the Twenty-First Century

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Jongsoo; Olson, Roman; An, Soon-Il

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles have been constructed using both simple and weighted averaging. Results from both methods are similar and show that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.

Particle transport model sensitivity on wave-induced processes

Science.gov (United States)

Staneva, Joanna; Ricker, Marcel; Krüger, Oliver; Breivik, Oyvind; Stanev, Emil; Schrum, Corinna

2017-04-01

Different effects of wind waves on the hydrodynamics in the North Sea are investigated using a coupled wave (WAM) and circulation (NEMO) model system. The terms accounting for the wave-current interaction are: the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state dependent momentum and energy flux. The role of the different Stokes drift parameterizations is investigated using a particle-drift model. Those particles can be considered as simple representations of either oil fractions, or fish larvae. In the ocean circulation models the momentum flux from the atmosphere, which is related to the wind speed, is passed directly to the ocean and this is controlled by the drag coefficient. However, in the real ocean, the waves play also the role of a reservoir for momentum and energy because different amounts of the momentum flux from the atmosphere is taken up by the waves. In the coupled model system the momentum transferred into the ocean model is estimated as the fraction of the total flux that goes directly to the currents plus the momentum lost from wave dissipation. Additionally, we demonstrate that the wave-induced Stokes-Coriolis force leads to a deflection of the current. During the extreme events the Stokes velocity is comparable in magnitude to the current velocity. The resulting wave-induced drift is crucial for the transport of particles in the upper ocean. The performed sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the model skill depends on the chosen processes. The results are validated using surface drifters, ADCP, HF radar data and other in-situ measurements in different regions of the North Sea with a focus on the coastal areas. The using of a coupled model system reveals that the newly introduced wave effects are important for the drift-model performance, especially during extremes. Those effects cannot be neglected by search and rescue, oil-spill, transport of biological material, or larva drift modelling.

Rogue waves in a water tank: Experiments and modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Lechuga, Antonio

2013-04-01

Recently many rogue waves have been reported as the main cause of ship incidents on the sea. One of the main characteristics of rogue waves is its elusiveness: they present unexpectedly and disappear in the same wave. Some authors (Zakharov and al.2010) are attempting to find the probability of their appearances apart from studyingthe mechanism of the formation. As an effort on this topic we tried the generation of rogue waves in a water wave tank using a symmetric spectrum(Akhmediev et al. 2011) as input on the wave maker. The produced waves were clearly rogue waves with a rate (maximum wave height/ Significant wave height) of 2.33 and a kurtosis of 4.77 (Janssen 2003, Onorato 2006). These results were already presented (Lechuga 2012). Similar waves (in pattern aspect, but without being extreme waves) were described as crossing waves in a water tank(Shemer and Lichter1988). To go on further the next step has been to apply a theoretical model to the envelope of these waves. After some considerations the best model has been an analogue of the Ginzburg-Landau equation. This apparently amazing result is easily explained: We know that the Ginzburg-Landau model is related to some regular structures on the surface of a liquid and also in plasmas, electric and magnetic fields and other media. Another important characteristic of the model is that their solutions are invariants with respectto the translation group. The main aim of this presentation is to extract conclusions of the model and the comparison with the measured waves in the water tank.The nonlinear structure of waves and their regularity make suitable the use of the Ginzburg-Landau model to the envelope of generated waves in the tank,so giving us a powerful tool to cope with the results of our experiment.

Model confirmation in climate economics

Science.gov (United States)

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

Experimental Measurement of Wave Field Variations around Wave Energy Converter Arrays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louise O’Boyle

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Wave energy converters (WECs inherently extract energy from incident waves. For wave energy to become a significant power provider in the future, large farms of WECs will be required. This scale of energy extraction will increase the potential for changes in the local wave field and coastal environment. Assessment of these effects is necessary to inform decisions on the layout of wave farms for optimum power output and minimum environmental impact, as well as on potential site selection. An experimental campaign to map, at high resolution, the wave field variation around arrays of 5 oscillating water column WECs and a methodology for extracting scattered and radiated waves is presented. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the full extent of the WEC behavior when assessing impacts on the wave field. The effect of radiated waves on the wave field is not immediately apparent when considering changes to the entire wave spectrum, nor when observing changes in wave climate due to scattered and radiated waves superimposed together. The results show that radiated waves may account for up to 50% of the effects on wave climate in the near field in particular operating conditions.

On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solow, A.R.

1991-01-01

Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question. 9 refs

On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solow, A.R.

1990-01-01

Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question

Wave Tank Testing and Model Validation of an Autonomous Wave Energy Converter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bret Bosma

2015-08-01

Full Text Available A key component in bringing ocean wave energy converters from concept to commercialization is the building and testing of scaled prototypes to provide model validation. A one quarter scale prototype of an autonomous two body heaving point absorber was modeled, built, and tested for this work. Wave tank testing results are compared with two hydrodynamic and system models—implemented in both ANSYS AQWA and MATLAB/Simulink—and show model validation over certain regions of operation. This work will serve as a guide for future developers of wave energy converter devices, providing insight in taking their design from concept to prototype stage.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Model Predictive Control of a Wave Energy Converter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom Søndergård; Nielsen, Kirsten Mølgaard

2015-01-01

In this paper reactive control and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) are compared. The analysis is based on a WEC from Wave Star A/S designed as a point absorber. The model predictive controller uses wave models based on the dominating sea states combined with a model...... connecting undisturbed wave sequences to sequences of torque. Losses in the conversion from mechanical to electrical power are taken into account in two ways. Conventional reactive controllers are tuned for each sea state with the assumption that the converter has the same efficiency back and forth. MPC...

Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-12-01

Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

Gravitational waves in hybrid quintessential inflationary models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sa, Paulo M; Henriques, Alfredo B

2011-01-01

The generation of primordial gravitational waves is investigated within the hybrid quintessential inflationary model. Using the method of continuous Bogoliubov coefficients, we calculate the full gravitational-wave energy spectrum. The post-inflationary kination period, characteristic of quintessential inflationary models, leaves a clear signature on the spectrum, namely, a sharp rise of the gravitational-wave spectral energy density Ω GW at high frequencies. For appropriate values of the parameters of the model, Ω GW can be as high as 10 -12 in the MHz-GHz range of frequencies.

Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

1994-01-01

An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

Science.gov (United States)

Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

2009-04-01

An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

Climate sensitivity of marine energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, G.P.; Wallace, A.R.

2005-01-01

Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversion: where the resource is constrained, production and economic performance may suffer; alternatively, stormier climates may create survival issues. Here, a relatively simple sensitivity study is used to quantify how changes in mean wind speed - as a proxy for wider climate change - influence wind and wave energy production and economics. (author)

The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

Science.gov (United States)

Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

2017-04-01

One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

Wave Resource Characterization Using an Unstructured Grid Modeling Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Cheng Wu

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a modeling study conducted on the central Oregon coast for wave resource characterization, using the unstructured grid Simulating WAve Nearshore (SWAN model coupled with a nested grid WAVEWATCH III® (WWIII model. The flexibility of models with various spatial resolutions and the effects of open boundary conditions simulated by a nested grid WWIII model with different physics packages were evaluated. The model results demonstrate the advantage of the unstructured grid-modeling approach for flexible model resolution and good model skills in simulating the six wave resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission in comparison to the observed data in Year 2009 at National Data Buoy Center Buoy 46050. Notably, spectral analysis indicates that the ST4 physics package improves upon the ST2 physics package’s ability to predict wave power density for large waves, which is important for wave resource assessment, load calculation of devices, and risk management. In addition, bivariate distributions show that the simulated sea state of maximum occurrence with the ST4 physics package matched the observed data better than with the ST2 physics package. This study demonstrated that the unstructured grid wave modeling approach, driven by regional nested grid WWIII outputs along with the ST4 physics package, can efficiently provide accurate wave hindcasts to support wave resource characterization. Our study also suggests that wind effects need to be considered if the dimension of the model domain is greater than approximately 100 km, or O (102 km.

A multi-decadal wind-wave hindcast for the North Sea 1949-2014: coastDat2

Science.gov (United States)

Groll, Nikolaus; Weisse, Ralf

2017-12-01

Long and consistent wave data are important for analysing wave climate variability and change. Moreover, such wave data are also needed in coastal and offshore design and for addressing safety-related issues at sea. Using the third-generation spectral wave model WAM a multi-decadal wind-wave hindcast for the North Sea covering the period 1949-2014 was produced. The hindcast is part of the coastDat database representing a consistent and homogeneous met-ocean data set. It is shown that despite not being perfect, data from the wave hindcast are generally suitable for wave climate analysis. In particular, comparisons of hindcast data with in situ and satellite observations show on average a reasonable agreement, while a tendency towards overestimation of the highest waves could be inferred. Despite these limitations, the wave hindcast still provides useful data for assessing wave climate variability and change as well as for risk analysis, in particular when conservative estimates are needed. Hindcast data are stored at the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) and can be freely accessed using the doi:10.1594/WDCC/coastDat-2_WAM-North_Sea Groll and Weisse(2016) or via the coastDat web-page http://www.coastdat.de.

Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

Comparison of Grid Nudging and Spectral Nudging Techniques for Dynamical Climate Downscaling within the WRF Model

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, X.; Chen, L.; Ma, Z.

2010-12-01

Climate downscaling has been an active research and application area in the past several decades focusing on regional climate studies. Dynamical downscaling, in addition to statistical methods, has been widely used in downscaling as the advanced modern numerical weather and regional climate models emerge. The utilization of numerical models enables that a full set of climate variables are generated in the process of downscaling, which are dynamically consistent due to the constraints of physical laws. While we are generating high resolution regional climate, the large scale climate patterns should be retained. To serve this purpose, nudging techniques, including grid analysis nudging and spectral nudging, have been used in different models. There are studies demonstrating the benefit and advantages of each nudging technique; however, the results are sensitive to many factors such as nudging coefficients and the amount of information to nudge to, and thus the conclusions are controversy. While in a companion work of developing approaches for quantitative assessment of the downscaled climate, in this study, the two nudging techniques are under extensive experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using the same model provides fair comparability. Applying the quantitative assessments provides objectiveness of comparison. Three types of downscaling experiments were performed for one month of choice. The first type is serving as a base whereas the large scale information is communicated through lateral boundary conditions only; the second is using the grid analysis nudging; and the third is using spectral nudging. Emphases are given to the experiments of different nudging coefficients and nudging to different variables in the grid analysis nudging; while in spectral nudging, we focus on testing the nudging coefficients, different wave numbers on different model levels to nudge.

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

2015-12-01

Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

Forecasting ocean wave energy: A Comparison of the ECMWF wave model with time series methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reikard, Gordon; Pinson, Pierre; Bidlot, Jean

2011-01-01

Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several...... days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts...... (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave...

Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubasch, Ulrich

2007-01-01

Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Cavalieri, D. J.; Haekkinen, S.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave 1 pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach for determining significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Gravitational waves in hybrid quintessential inflationary models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sa, Paulo M [Departamento de Fisica, Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro (Portugal); Henriques, Alfredo B, E-mail: pmsa@ualg.pt, E-mail: alfredo.henriques@ist.utl.pt [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofisica - CENTRA and Departamento de Fisica, Instituto Superior Tecnico, UTL, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

2011-09-22

The generation of primordial gravitational waves is investigated within the hybrid quintessential inflationary model. Using the method of continuous Bogoliubov coefficients, we calculate the full gravitational-wave energy spectrum. The post-inflationary kination period, characteristic of quintessential inflationary models, leaves a clear signature on the spectrum, namely, a sharp rise of the gravitational-wave spectral energy density {Omega}{sub GW} at high frequencies. For appropriate values of the parameters of the model, {Omega}{sub GW} can be as high as 10{sup -12} in the MHz-GHz range of frequencies.

Structure and dynamics of a wave train along the wintertime Asian jet and its impact on East Asian climate

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Kaiming; Huang, Gang; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Lin

2017-04-01

Based on observational and reanalysis datasets, this study investigates the structure and dynamics of a wave-like atmospheric teleconnection pattern along the wintertime Asian jet and its influence on East Asian climate. Along the jet, the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of monthly meridional winds at 250-hPa in winter (December, January, and February) is organized as a wave train with maximum anomalies at upper troposphere. The wave train propagates northeastward from the North Atlantic to Europe, turns southeastward to the Middle East with amplifying amplitude, propagates along the jet to South China, and reaches Japan, which is partly induced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the sector from Europe to the Middle East, the anomalous vortices in the wave train tilt northwestward with height and tilt northeast/southwest in horizontal at 250 hPa, favoring for extracting available potential energy and kinetic energy from mean flows effectively. In addition, there exists a positive feedback between transient eddies and the wave train-related anomalous circulation over the North Atlantic and Europe. These processes help to maintain and amplify the wave train. Moreover, the wave train can exert significant influences on the wintertime climate in East Asia. When it is in the phase with a cyclone (anticyclone) over South China (Japan), rainfall tends to be above normal in South and East China and surface air temperature tends to be above normal around Japan and the Korea peninsula.

Modeling and assessing international climate financing

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

2016-06-01

Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mearns, L.O.

1990-01-01

One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

Evaluation of Simulated Marine Aerosol Production Using the WaveWatchIII Prognostic Wave Model Coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model within the Community Earth System Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Long, M. S. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). School of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Keene, William C. [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Zhang, J. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Reichl, B. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Shi, Y. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Hara, T. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Reid, J. S. [Naval Research Lab. (NRL), Monterey, CA (United States); Fox-Kemper, B. [Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States). Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences; Craig, A. P. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Erickson, D. J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computer Science and Mathematics Division; Ginis, I. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Webb, A. [Univ. of Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Ocean Technology, Policy, and Environment

2016-11-08

Primary marine aerosol (PMA) is emitted into the atmosphere via breaking wind waves on the ocean surface. Most parameterizations of PMA emissions use 10-meter wind speed as a proxy for wave action. This investigation coupled the 3^rd generation prognostic WAVEWATCH-III wind-wave model within a coupled Earth system model (ESM) to drive PMA production using wave energy dissipation rate – analogous to whitecapping – in place of 10-meter wind speed. The wind speed parameterization did not capture basin-scale variability in relations between wind and wave fields. Overall, the wave parameterization did not improve comparison between simulated versus measured AOD or Na⁺, thus highlighting large remaining uncertainties in model physics. Results confirm the efficacy of prognostic wind-wave models for air-sea exchange studies coupled with laboratory- and field-based characterizations of the primary physical drivers of PMA production. No discernible correlations were evident between simulated PMA fields and observed chlorophyll or sea surface temperature.

WaveSAX device: design optimization through scale modelling and a PTO strategical control system

Science.gov (United States)

Peviani, Maximo; Danelli, Andrea; Dadone, Gianluca; Dalmasso, Alberto

2017-04-01

WaveSAX is an innovative OWC (Oscillating Water Column) device for the generation of electricity from wave power, conceived to be installed in coastal marine structures, such as ports and harbours. The device - especially designed for the typical wave climate of Mediterranean Sea - is characterized by two important aspects: flexibility to fit in different structural configurations and replication in a large number of units. A model of the WaveSAX device on a scale 1:5 has been built and tested in the ocean tank at Ecole Centrale de Nantes (France). The study aimed to analyse the behaviour of the device, including two Wells turbine configurations (with three and four blades), with regular and irregular wave conditions in the ocean wave tank. The model and the wave basin were equipped with a series of sensors which allowed to measure the following parameters during the tests: pressure in different points inside the device, the free water surface displacement inside and outside the device, the rotational velocity and the torque at the top of the axis. The tests had the objective to optimize the device design, especially as far as the characteristics of the rotor of the turbine is concern. Although the performance of the WaveSAX has been satisfactory for regular wave conditions, the behaviour of the Wells turbines for irregular wave climate has shown limitations in terms of maintaining the capacity to transform hydraulics energy into mechanical power. To optimize the efficiency of the turbine, an electronical system has been built on the basis of the ocean tank tests. It allows to continuously monitor and command the rotational speed and the torque of the rotor connected with the turbine, and to control in real time the electrical flow of a motor-generator, either absorbing energy as a generator, or providing power to the turbine working as an engine. Two strategies - based on the velocity and the torque control - have been investigate in the electronic test bench

Horizontal circulation and jumps in Hamiltonian wave models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gagarina, Elena; van der Vegt, Jacobus J.W.; Bokhove, Onno

2013-01-01

We are interested in the numerical modeling of wave-current interactions around surf zones at beaches. Any model that aims to predict the onset of wave breaking at the breaker line needs to capture both the nonlinearity of the wave and its dispersion. We have therefore formulated the Hamiltonian

XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea

Science.gov (United States)

Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.

2012-04-01

Projection of regional climate changes for XXI century is one of the priorities of EC environmental programme. Potential worsening of the waves' statistics, sea level rise and extreme surges are the principal negative consequences of the climate change for marine environment. That is why the main purpose of this presentation is to discuss the above issue for the Black sea region (with a strong focus to the south-west subregion because the maximum heights of waves exceeding 10 m occur just here) using output of several global coupled models (GCM) for XXI century, wave simulation, long-term observations of sea level and statistical techniques. First of all we tried to choose the best coupled model (s) simulated the Black sea climate change and variability using the control experiments for 20 century (203). The principal result is as follows. There is not one model which is simulating adequately even one atmospheric parameter for all seasons. Therefore we considered (for the climate projection) different outputs form various models. When it was possible we calculated also the ensemble mean projection for the selected model (s) and emission scenarios. To calculate the wave projection we used the output of SWAN model forced by the GCM wind projection for 2010 to 2100. To estimate the sea level rise in XXI century and future surges statistics we extrapolate the observed sea level rise tendencies, statistical relation between wave heights and sea level and wave scenarios. Results show that in general, the climate change in XXI century doesn't lead to the catastrophic change of the Black sea wind-wave statistics including the extreme waves in the S-W Black sea. The typical atmospheric pattern leading to the intense storm in the S-W Black sea is characterized by the persistent anticyclonic area to the North of the Black sea and cyclonic conditions in the Southern Black sea region. Such pressure pattern causes persistent and strong eastern or north-eastern wind which

Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei

2017-01-01

An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

The effects of plastic waves on the numerical convergence of the viscous-plastic and elastic-viscous-plastic sea-ice models

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, James; Tremblay, L. Bruno; Lemieux, Jean-François

2017-07-01

The plastic wave speed is derived from the linearized 1-D version of the widely used viscous-plastic (VP) and elastic-viscous-plastic (EVP) sea-ice models. Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) conditions are derived using the propagation speed of the wave. 1-D numerical experiments of the VP, EVP and EVP* models successfully recreate a reference solution when the CFL conditions are satisfied, in agreement with the theory presented. The IMplicit-EXplicit (IMEX) method is shown to effectively alleviate the plastic wave CFL constraint on the timestep in the implicitly solved VP model in both 1-D and 2-D. In 2-D, the EVP and EVP* models show first order error in the simulated velocity field when the plastic wave is not resolved. EVP simulations are performed with various advective timestep, number of subcycles, and elastic-wave damping timescales. It is found that increasing the number of subcycles beyond that needed to resolve the elastic wave does not improve the quality of the solution. It is found that reducing the elastic wave damping timescale reduces the spatial extent of first order errors cause by the unresolved plastic wave. Reducing the advective timestep so that the plastic wave is resolved also reduces the velocity error in terms of magnitude and spatial extent. However, the parameter set required for convergence to within the error bars of satellite (RGPS) deformation fields is impractical for use in climate model simulations. The behavior of the EVP* method is analogous to that of the EVP method except that it is not possible to reduce the damping timescale with α = β.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

Experimental Update of the Overtopping Model Used for the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erik Friis-Madsen

2013-04-01

Full Text Available An overtopping model specifically suited for Wave Dragon is needed in order to improve the reliability of its performance estimates. The model shall be comprehensive of all relevant physical processes that affect overtopping and flexible to adapt to any local conditions and device configuration. An experimental investigation is carried out to update an existing formulation suited for 2D draft-limited, low-crested structures, in order to include the effects on the overtopping flow of the wave steepness, the 3D geometry of Wave Dragon, the wing reflectors, the device motions and the non-rigid connection between platform and reflectors. The study is carried out in four phases, each of them specifically targeted at quantifying one of these effects through a sensitivity analysis and at modeling it through custom-made parameters. These are depending on features of the wave or the device configuration, all of which can be measured in real-time. Instead of using new fitting coefficients, this approach allows a broader applicability of the model beyond the Wave Dragon case, to any overtopping WEC or structure within the range of tested conditions. Predictions reliability of overtopping over Wave Dragon increased, as the updated model allows improved accuracy and precision respect to the former version.

Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

1998-01-01

Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

Wave energy potential in Galicia (NW Spain)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iglesias, G.; Lopez, M.; Carballo, R.; Castro, A. [University of Santiago de Compostela, Hydraulic Engineering, E.P.S., Campus Universitario s/n, 27002 Lugo (Spain); Fraguela, J.A. [University of A Coruna, E.P.S., Campus de Esteiro s/n, Ferrol (Spain); Frigaard, P. [University of Aalborg, Sohngaardsholmsvej 57, DK 9000 (Denmark)

2009-11-15

Wave power presents significant advantages with regard to other CO{sub 2}-free energy sources, among which the predictability, high load factor and low visual and environmental impact stand out. Galicia, facing the Atlantic on the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula, is subjected to a very harsh wave climate; in this work its potential for energy production is assessed based on three-hourly data from a third generation ocean wave model (WAM) covering the period 1996-2005. Taking into account the results of this assessment along with other relevant considerations such as the location of ports, navigation routes, and fishing and aquaculture zones, an area is selected for wave energy exploitation. The transformation of the offshore wave field as it propagates into this area is computed by means of a nearshore wave model (SWAN) in order to select the optimum locations for a wave farm. Two zones emerge as those with the highest potential for wave energy exploitation. The large modifications in the available wave power resulting from relatively small changes of position are made apparent in the process. (author)

Experimental Update of the Overtopping Model Used for the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parmeggiani, Stefano; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Friis-Madsen, Erik

2013-01-01

An overtopping model specifically suited for Wave Dragon is needed in order to improve the reliability of its performance estimates. The model shall be comprehensive of all relevant physical processes that affect overtopping and flexible to adapt to any local conditions and device configuration....... An experimental investigation is carried out to update an existing formulation suited for 2D draft-limited, low-crested structures, in order to include the effects on the overtopping flow of the wave steepness, the 3D geometry of Wave Dragon, the wing reflectors, the device motions and the non-rigid connection...... of which can be measured in real-time. Instead of using new fitting coefficients, this approach allows a broader applicability of the model beyond the Wave Dragon case, to any overtopping WEC or structure within the range of tested conditions. Predictions reliability of overtopping over Wave Dragon...

-Advanced Models for Tsunami and Rogue Waves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. W. Pravica

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A wavelet , that satisfies the q-advanced differential equation for , is used to model N-wave oscillations observed in tsunamis. Although q-advanced ODEs may seem nonphysical, we present an application that model tsunamis, in particular the Japanese tsunami of March 11, 2011, by utilizing a one-dimensional wave equation that is forced by . The profile is similar to tsunami models in present use. The function is a wavelet that satisfies a q-advanced harmonic oscillator equation. It is also shown that another wavelet, , matches a rogue-wave profile. This is explained in terms of a resonance wherein two small amplitude forcing waves eventually lead to a large amplitude rogue. Since wavelets are used in the detection of tsunamis and rogues, the signal-analysis performance of and is examined on actual data.

Morphological development of coasts at very oblique wave incidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Dorthe Pia; Deigaard, Rolf; Fredsøe, Jørgen

2003-01-01

This study focuses on one distinct feature to be found on coasts exposed to a very oblique wave incidence, namely an accumulating spit. That is a spit where no retreat of the shoreline is going on along the spit. This requires a monotonically decreasing sediment transport capacity from the updrift...... that such a spit grows without changing its shape i.e. an equilibrium form emerge if the coast is exposed to a constant wave climate. During experiments conducted in a wave tank where a uniform stretch of coast was exposed to waves approaching at a very oblique angle an accumulating spit was formed at the down......-drift end of the coast. The spits approached equilibrium forms when constant wave climates were applied. The sediment transport around the spit has been investigated by two-dimensional models. The characteristic length scale for the equilibrium form depends linearly on the width of the surf zone...

User's Manual for the Simulating Waves Nearshore Model (SWAN)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Allard, Richard

2002-01-01

The Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model is a numerical wave model used to obtain realistic estimates of wave parameters in coastal areas, lakes, and estuaries from given wind, bottom, and current conditions...

Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

2012-01-01

Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

Updated vegetation information in high resolution regional climate simulations using WRF

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Joakim Refslund; Dellwik, Ebba; Hahmann, Andrea N.

Climate studies show that the frequency of heat wave events and above-average high temperatures during the summer months over Europe will increase in the coming decades. Such climatic changes and long-term meteorological conditions will impact the seasonal development of vegetation and ultimately...... modify the energy distribution at the land surface. In weather and climate models it is important to represent the vegetation variability accurately to obtain reliable results. The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model uses a green vegetation fraction (GVF) climatology to represent the seasonal...... or changes in management practice since it is derived more than twenty years ago. In this study, a new high resolution, high quality GVF product is applied in a WRF climate simulation over Denmark during the 2006 heat wave year. The new GVF product reflects the year 2006 and it was previously tested...

'Oscillator-wave' model: properties and heuristic instances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damgov, Vladimir; Trenchev, Plamen; Sheiretsky, Kostadin

2003-01-01

The article considers a generalized model of an oscillator, subjected to the influence of an external wave. It is shown that the systems of diverse physical background, which this model encompasses by their nature, should belong to the broader, proposed in previous works class of 'kick-excited self-adaptive dynamical systems'. The theoretical treatment includes an analytic approach to the conditions for emergence of small and large amplitudes, i.e. weak and strong non-linearity of the system. Derived also are generalized conditions for the transition of systems of this 'oscillator-wave' type to non-regular and chaotic behaviour. For the purpose of demonstrating the heuristic properties of the generalized oscillator-wave model from this point of view are considered the relevant systems and phenomena of the quantized cyclotron resonance and the megaquantum resonance-wave model of the Solar System. We point to a number of other natural and scientific phenomena, which can be effectively analyzed from the point of view of the developed approach. In particular we stress on the possibility for development and the wide applicability of specific wave influences, for example for the improvement and the speeding up of technological processes

A coupling modulation model of capillary waves from gravity waves: Theoretical analysis and experimental validation

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Pengzhen; Wang, Xiaoqing; Liu, Li; Chong, Jinsong

2016-06-01

According to Bragg theory, capillary waves are the predominant scatterers of high-frequency band (such as Ka-band) microwave radiation from the surface of the ocean. Therefore, understanding the modulation mechanism of capillary waves is an important foundation for interpreting high-frequency microwave remote sensing images of the surface of the sea. In our experiments, we discovered that modulations of capillary waves are significantly larger than the values predicted by the classical theory. Further, analysis shows that the difference in restoring force results in an inflection point while the phase velocity changes from gravity waves region to capillary waves region, and this results in the capillary waves being able to resonate with gravity waves when the phase velocity of the gravity waves is equal to the group velocity of the capillary waves. Consequently, we propose a coupling modulation model in which the current modulates the capillary wave indirectly by modulating the resonant gravity waves, and the modulation of the former is approximated by that of the latter. This model very effectively explains the results discovered in our experiments. Further, based on Bragg scattering theory and this coupling modulation model, we simulate the modulation of normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of typical internal waves and show that the high-frequency bands are superior to the low-frequency bands because of their greater modulation of NRCS and better radiometric resolution. This result provides new support for choice of radar band for observation of wave-current modulation oceanic phenomena such as internal waves, fronts, and shears.

Short-Term Wave Forecasting with AR models in Real-Time Optimal Control of Wave Energy Converters

OpenAIRE

Fusco, Francesco; Ringwood, John

2010-01-01

Time domain control of wave energy converters requires knowledge of future incident wave elevation in order to approach conditions for optimal energy extraction. Autoregressive models revealed to be a promising approach to the prediction of future values of the wave elevation only from its past history. Results on real wave observations from different ocean locations show that AR models allow to achieve very good predictions for more than one wave period in the future if ...

Modelization of highly nonlinear waves in coastal regions

Science.gov (United States)

Gouin, Maïté; Ducrozet, Guillaume; Ferrant, Pierre

2015-04-01

The proposed work deals with the development of a highly non-linear model for water wave propagation in coastal regions. The accurate modelization of surface gravity waves is of major interest in ocean engineering, especially in the field of marine renewable energy. These marine structures are intended to be settled in coastal regions where the effect of variable bathymetry may be significant on local wave conditions. This study presents a numerical model for the wave propagation with complex bathymetry. It is based on High-Order Spectral (HOS) method, initially limited to the propagation of non-linear wave fields over flat bottom. Such a model has been developed and validated at the LHEEA Lab. (Ecole Centrale Nantes) over the past few years and the current developments will enlarge its application range. This new numerical model will keep the interesting numerical properties of the original pseudo-spectral approach (convergence, efficiency with the use of FFTs, …) and enable the possibility to propagate highly non-linear wave fields over long time and large distance. Different validations will be provided in addition to the presentation of the method. At first, Bragg reflection will be studied with the proposed approach. If the Bragg condition is satisfied, the reflected wave generated by a sinusoidal bottom patch should be amplified as a result of resonant quadratic interactions between incident wave and bottom. Comparisons will be provided with experiments and reference solutions. Then, the method will be used to consider the transformation of a non-linear monochromatic wave as it propagates up and over a submerged bar. As the waves travel up the front slope of the bar, it steepens and high harmonics are generated due to non-linear interactions. Comparisons with experimental data will be provided. The different test cases will assess the accuracy and efficiency of the method proposed.

Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

KAUST Repository

Merlis, Timothy M.; Held, Isaac M.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Horowitz, Larry W.

2014-01-01

Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

KAUST Repository

Merlis, Timothy M.

2014-10-01

Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

Wave energy potential in Galicia (NW Spain)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iglesias, Gregorio; López, Mario; Carballo, Rodrigo

2009-01-01

Wave power presents significant advantages with regard to other CO2-free energy sources, among which the predictability, high load factor and low visual and environmental impact stand out. Galicia, facing the Atlantic on the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula, is subjected to a very...... harsh wave climate; in this work its potential for energy production is assessed based on three-hourly data from a third generation ocean wave model (WAM) covering the period 1996 - 2005. Taking into account the results of this assessment along with other relevant considerations such as the location...

An evaluation of gravity waves and gravity wave sources in the Southern Hemisphere in a 7 km global climate simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Holt, L A; Alexander, M J; Coy, L; Liu, C; Molod, A; Putman, W; Pawson, S

2017-07-01

In this study, gravity waves (GWs) in the high-resolution GEOS-5 Nature Run are first evaluated with respect to satellite and other model results. Southern Hemisphere winter sources of non-orographic GWs in the model are then investigated by linking measures of tropospheric non-orographic gravity wave generation tied to precipitation and frontogenesis with absolute gravity wave momentum flux in the lower stratosphere. Finally, non-orographic GW momentum flux is compared to orographic gravity wave momentum flux and compared to previous estimates. The results show that the global patterns in GW amplitude, horizontal wavelength, and propagation direction are realistic compared to observations. However, as in other global models, the amplitudes are weaker and horizontal wavelengths longer than observed. The global patterns in absolute GW momentum flux also agree well with previous model and observational estimates. The evaluation of model non-orographic GW sources in the Southern Hemisphere winter shows that strong intermittent precipitation (greater than 10 mm h -1 ) is associated with GW momentum flux over the South Pacific, whereas frontogenesis and less intermittent, lower precipitation rates (less than 10 mm h -1 ) are associated with GW momentum flux near 60°S. In the model, orographic GWs contribute almost exclusively to a peak in zonal mean momentum flux between 70 and 75°S, while non-orographic waves dominate at 60°S, and non-orographic GWs contribute a third to a peak in zonal mean momentum flux between 25 and 30°S.

Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

Middle Atmosphere Dynamics with Gravity Wave Interactions in the Numerical Spectral Model: Tides and Planetary Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, J. G.; Chan, K. L.; Huang, F. T.

2010-01-01

As Lindzen (1981) had shown, small-scale gravity waves (GW) produce the observed reversals of the zonal-mean circulation and temperature variations in the upper mesosphere. The waves also play a major role in modulating and amplifying the diurnal tides (DT) (e.g., Waltersheid, 1981; Fritts and Vincent, 1987; Fritts, 1995a). We summarize here the modeling studies with the mechanistic numerical spectral model (NSM) with Doppler spread parameterization for GW (Hines, 1997a, b), which describes in the middle atmosphere: (a) migrating and non-migrating DT, (b) planetary waves (PW), and (c) global-scale inertio gravity waves. Numerical experiments are discussed that illuminate the influence of GW filtering and nonlinear interactions between DT, PW, and zonal mean variations. Keywords: Theoretical modeling, Middle atmosphere dynamics, Gravity wave interactions, Migrating and non-migrating tides, Planetary waves, Global-scale inertio gravity waves.

Computational study on full-wave inversion based on the acoustic wave-equation; Onkyoha hado hoteishiki full wave inversion no model keisan ni yoru kento

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watanabe, T; Sassa, K [Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan); Uesaka, S [Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

1996-10-01

The effect of initial models on full-wave inversion (FWI) analysis based on acoustic wave-equation was studied for elastic wave tomography of underground structures. At present, travel time inversion using initial motion travel time is generally used, and inverse analysis is conducted using the concept `ray,` assuming very high wave frequency. Although this method can derive stable solutions relatively unaffected by initial model, it uses only the data of initial motion travel time. FWI calculates theoretical waveform at each receiver using all of observed waveforms as data by wave equation modeling where 2-D underground structure is calculated by difference calculus under the assumption that wave propagation is described by wave equation of P wave. Although it is a weak point that FWI is easily affected by noises in an initial model and data, it is featured by high resolution of solutions. This method offers very excellent convergence as a proper initial model is used, resulting in sufficient performance, however, it is strongly affected by initial model. 2 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

Can We Use Single-Column Models for Understanding the Boundary Layer Cloud-Climate Feedback?

Science.gov (United States)

Dal Gesso, S.; Neggers, R. A. J.

2018-02-01

This study explores how to drive Single-Column Models (SCMs) with existing data sets of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs, with the aim of studying the boundary layer cloud response to climate change in the marine subtropical trade wind regime. The EC-EARTH SCM is driven with the large-scale tendencies and boundary conditions as derived from two different data sets, consisting of high-frequency outputs of GCM simulations. SCM simulations are performed near Barbados Cloud Observatory in the dry season (January-April), when fair-weather cumulus is the dominant low-cloud regime. This climate regime is characterized by a near equilibrium in the free troposphere between the long-wave radiative cooling and the large-scale advection of warm air. In the SCM, this equilibrium is ensured by scaling the monthly mean dynamical tendency of temperature and humidity such that it balances that of the model physics in the free troposphere. In this setup, the high-frequency variability in the forcing is maintained, and the boundary layer physics acts freely. This technique yields representative cloud amount and structure in the SCM for the current climate. Furthermore, the cloud response to a sea surface warming of 4 K as produced by the SCM is consistent with that of the forcing GCM.

Future heat waves due to climate change threaten the survival of Posidonia oceanica seedlings.

Science.gov (United States)

Guerrero-Meseguer, Laura; Marín, Arnaldo; Sanz-Lázaro, Carlos

2017-11-01

Extreme weather events are major drivers of ecological change, and their occurrence is likely to increase due to climate change. The transient increases in atmospheric temperatures are leading to a greater occurrence of heat waves, extreme events that can produce a substantial warming of water, especially in enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean Sea. Here, we tested the effects of current and predicted heat waves on the early stages of development of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Temperatures above 27 °C limited the growth of the plant by inhibiting its photosynthetic system. It suffered a reduction in leaf growth and faster leaf senescence, and in some cases mortality. This study demonstrates that the greater frequency of heat waves, along with anticipated temperature rises in coming decades, are expected to negatively affect the germination of P. oceanica seedlings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spin-Wave Wave Function for Quantum Spin Models : Condensed Matter and Statistical Physics

OpenAIRE

Franjo, FRANJIC; Sandro, SORELLA; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia International School for Advance Studies; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia International School for Advance Studies

1997-01-01

We present a new approach to determine an accurate variational wave function for general quantum spin models, completely defined by a consistency requirement with the simple and well-known linear spin-wave expansion. With this wave function, it is also possible to obtain the correct behavior of the long distance correlation functions for the 1D S=1/2 antiferromagnet. In 2D the proposed spin-wave wave function represents an excellent approximation to the exact ground state of the S=1.2 XY mode...

MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

1992-01-01

An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

Coupling atmospheric and ocean wave models for storm simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Du, Jianting

the atmosphere must, by conservation, result in the generation of the surface waves and currents. The physics-based methods are sensitive to the choice of wind-input source function (Sin), parameterization of high-frequency wave spectra tail, and numerical cut-off frequencies. Unfortunately, literature survey......This thesis studies the wind-wave interactions through the coupling between the atmospheric model and ocean surface wave models. Special attention is put on storm simulations in the North Sea for wind energy applications in the coastal zones. The two aspects, namely storm conditions and coastal...... shows that in most wind-wave coupling systems, either the Sin in the wave model is different from the one used for the momentum flux estimation in the atmospheric model, or the methods are too sensitive to the parameterization of high-frequency spectra tail and numerical cut-off frequencies. To confront...

Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

Science.gov (United States)

Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2012-12-01

Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that

Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

Science.gov (United States)

MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

2009-01-01

Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

Assessment of the Ability of Contemporary Climate Models to Assess Adequately the Risk of Possible Regional Anomalies and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Mokhov, I. I.

2018-04-01

The results describing the ability of contemporary global and regional climate models not only to assess the risk of general trends of changes but also to predict qualitatively new regional effects are presented. In particular, model simulations predicted spatially inhomogeneous changes in the wind and wave conditions in the Arctic basins, which have been confirmed in recent years. According to satellite and reanalysis data, a qualitative transition to the regime predicted by model simulations occurred about a decade ago.

The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yuying [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Marchand, Roger [University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Kollias, Pavlos [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Clothiaux, Eugene E. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Johnson, Karen [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Swales, Dustin [CIRES and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Tang, Shuaiqi [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Haynes, John M. [Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Collis, Scott [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois; Jensen, Michael [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Bharadwaj, Nitin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Hardin, Joseph [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Isom, Bradley [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

2018-01-01

Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are

An analytical model for climatic predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1990-12-01

A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

2017-12-01

Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

Wave Model Development in Multi-Ion Plasmas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sung-Hee Song

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Near-earth space is composed of plasmas which embed a number of plasma waves. Space plasmas consist of electrons and multi-ion that determine local wave propagation characteristics. In multi-ion plasmas, it is di cult to find out analytic solution from the dispersion relation in general. In this work, we have developed a model with an arbitrary magnetic field and density as well as multi-ion plasmas. This model allows us to investigate how plasma waves behave when they propagate along realistic magnetic field lines, which are assumed by IGRF(International Geomagnetic Reference Field. The results are found to be useful for the analysis of the in situ observational data in space. For instance, if waves are assumed to propagate into the polar region, from the equatorial region, our model quantitatively shows how polarization is altered along earth travel path.

Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

2012-11-01

In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

Understanding and Improving Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for modeling Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Clarke, J.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.; Dubovikov, M. S.

2017-12-01

Climate is vital. Earth is only habitable due to the atmosphere&oceans' distribution of energy. Our Greenhouse Gas emissions shift overall the balance between absorbed and emitted radiation causing Global Warming. How much of these emissions are stored in the ocean vs. entering the atmosphere to cause warming and how the extra heat is distributed depends on atmosphere&ocean dynamics, which we must understand to know risks of both progressive Climate Change and Climate Variability which affect us all in many ways including extreme weather, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption. Citizens must be informed to make decisions such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to avert catastrophe. Simulations of Climate Change provide needed knowledge but in turn need reliable parameterizations of key physical processes, including ocean mixing, which greatly impacts transport&storage of heat and dissolved CO2. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS seeks to use physical theory to improve parameterizations of ocean mixing, including smallscale convective, shear driven, double diffusive, internal wave and tidal driven vertical mixing, as well as mixing by submesoscale eddies, and lateral mixing along isopycnals by mesoscale eddies. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. We write our own programs in MATLAB and FORTRAN to visualize and process output of ocean simulations including producing statistics to help judge impacts of different parameterizations on fidelity in reproducing realistic temperatures&salinities, diffusivities and turbulent power. The results can help upgrade the parameterizations. Students are introduced to complex system modeling and gain deeper appreciation of climate science and programming skills, while furthering climate science. We are incorporating climate projects into the Medgar Evers college curriculum. The PI is both a member of the turbulence group at

The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Muthers

2017-11-01

Full Text Available After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden–Württemberg. With an additional mean summer mortality of +7.9% (2003 and +5.8% (2015 both years mark the top-two records of the summer mortality in the period 1968–2015. In each summer, one major heat wave contributed strongly to the excess summer mortality: In August 2003, daily mortality reached anomalies of +70% and in July 2015 maximum deviations of +56% were observed. The August 2003 heat wave was very long-lasting and characterized by exceptional high maximum and minimum temperatures. In July 2015, temperatures were slightly lower than in 2003, however, the high air humidity during the day and night, lead to comparable heat loads. Furthermore, the heat wave occurred earlier during the summer, when the population was less acclimated to heat stress. Using regional climate models we project an increasing probability for future 2003- and 2015-like heat waves already in the near future (2021–2050, with a 2015-like event occurring about every second summer. In the far future (2070–2099 pronounced increases with more than two 2015-like heat waves per summer are possible.

Reevaluation of design waves off the western Indian coast considering climate change

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Satyavathi, P.; Deo, M.C.; Kerkar, J.; Vethamony, P.

of the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, while future wave data are generated by a state-of-the-art Canadian general circulation model. A statistical extreme value analysis of past and projected wave...

Benchmark Modeling of the Near-Field and Far-Field Wave Effects of Wave Energy Arrays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rhinefrank, Kenneth E; Haller, Merrick C; Ozkan-Haller, H Tuba

2013-01-26

This project is an industry-led partnership between Columbia Power Technologies and Oregon State University that will perform benchmark laboratory experiments and numerical modeling of the near-field and far-field impacts of wave scattering from an array of wave energy devices. These benchmark experimental observations will help to fill a gaping hole in our present knowledge of the near-field effects of multiple, floating wave energy converters and are a critical requirement for estimating the potential far-field environmental effects of wave energy arrays. The experiments will be performed at the Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory (Oregon State University) and will utilize an array of newly developed Buoys' that are realistic, lab-scale floating power converters. The array of Buoys will be subjected to realistic, directional wave forcing (1:33 scale) that will approximate the expected conditions (waves and water depths) to be found off the Central Oregon Coast. Experimental observations will include comprehensive in-situ wave and current measurements as well as a suite of novel optical measurements. These new optical capabilities will include imaging of the 3D wave scattering using a binocular stereo camera system, as well as 3D device motion tracking using a newly acquired LED system. These observing systems will capture the 3D motion history of individual Buoys as well as resolve the 3D scattered wave field; thus resolving the constructive and destructive wave interference patterns produced by the array at high resolution. These data combined with the device motion tracking will provide necessary information for array design in order to balance array performance with the mitigation of far-field impacts. As a benchmark data set, these data will be an important resource for testing of models for wave/buoy interactions, buoy performance, and far-field effects on wave and current patterns due to the presence of arrays. Under the proposed project we will initiate

Turbulent Spot Pressure Fluctuation Wave Packet Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dechant, Lawrence J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

Wave packet analysis provides a connection between linear small disturbance theory and subsequent nonlinear turbulent spot flow behavior. The traditional association between linear stability analysis and nonlinear wave form is developed via the method of stationary phase whereby asymptotic (simplified) mean flow solutions are used to estimate dispersion behavior and stationary phase approximation are used to invert the associated Fourier transform. The resulting process typically requires nonlinear algebraic equations inversions that can be best performed numerically, which partially mitigates the value of the approximation as compared to a more complete, e.g. DNS or linear/nonlinear adjoint methods. To obtain a simpler, closed-form analytical result, the complete packet solution is modeled via approximate amplitude (linear convected kinematic wave initial value problem) and local sinusoidal (wave equation) expressions. Significantly, the initial value for the kinematic wave transport expression follows from a separable variable coefficient approximation to the linearized pressure fluctuation Poisson expression. The resulting amplitude solution, while approximate in nature, nonetheless, appears to mimic many of the global features, e.g. transitional flow intermittency and pressure fluctuation magnitude behavior. A low wave number wave packet models also recover meaningful auto-correlation and low frequency spectral behaviors.

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

2014-08-01

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Zhang

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but

Model for Shock Wave Chaos

KAUST Repository

Kasimov, Aslan R.

2013-03-08

We propose the following model equation, ut+1/2(u2−uus)x=f(x,us) that predicts chaotic shock waves, similar to those in detonations in chemically reacting mixtures. The equation is given on the half line, x<0, and the shock is located at x=0 for any t≥0. Here, us(t) is the shock state and the source term f is taken to mimic the chemical energy release in detonations. This equation retains the essential physics needed to reproduce many properties of detonations in gaseous reactive mixtures: steady traveling wave solutions, instability of such solutions, and the onset of chaos. Our model is the first (to our knowledge) to describe chaos in shock waves by a scalar first-order partial differential equation. The chaos arises in the equation thanks to an interplay between the nonlinearity of the inviscid Burgers equation and a novel forcing term that is nonlocal in nature and has deep physical roots in reactive Euler equations.

The Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Ines, A. V. M.; Han, E.; Baethgen, W.

2017-12-01

Advances in seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) during the past decades have brought great potential to improve agricultural climate risk managements associated with inter-annual climate variability. In spite of popular uses of crop simulation models in addressing climate risk problems, the models cannot readily take seasonal climate predictions issued in the format of tercile probabilities of most likely rainfall categories (i.e, below-, near- and above-normal). When a skillful SCF is linked with the crop simulation models, the informative climate information can be further translated into actionable agronomic terms and thus better support strategic and tactical decisions. In other words, crop modeling connected with a given SCF allows to simulate "what-if" scenarios with different crop choices or management practices and better inform the decision makers. In this paper, we present a decision support tool, called CAMDT (Climate Agriculture Modeling and Decision Tool), which seamlessly integrates probabilistic SCFs to DSSAT-CSM-Rice model to guide decision-makers in adopting appropriate crop and agricultural water management practices for given climatic conditions. The CAMDT has a functionality to disaggregate a probabilistic SCF into daily weather realizations (either a parametric or non-parametric disaggregation method) and to run DSSAT-CSM-Rice with the disaggregated weather realizations. The convenient graphical user-interface allows easy implementation of several "what-if" scenarios for non-technical users and visualize the results of the scenario runs. In addition, the CAMDT also translates crop model outputs to economic terms once the user provides expected crop price and cost. The CAMDT is a practical tool for real-world applications, specifically for agricultural climate risk management in the Bicol region, Philippines, having a great flexibility for being adapted to other crops or regions in the world. CAMDT GitHub: https://github.com/Agro-Climate/CAMDT

Trend analysis of wave storminess: wave direction and its impact on harbour agitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Casas-Prat

2010-11-01

Full Text Available In the context of wave climate variability, long-term alterations in the wave storminess pattern of the Catalan coast (northwestern Mediterranean Sea are analysed in terms of wave energy content and wave direction, on the basis of wave hindcast data (from 44-year time series. In general, no significant temporal trends are found for annual mean and maximum energy. However, the same analysis carried out separately for different wave directions reveals a remarkable increase in the storm energy of events from the south, which is partly due to a rise in the annual percentage of such storms. A case study of Tarragona Port (on the southern Catalan coast highlights the importance of including changes in wave direction in the study of potential impacts of climate change. In particular, an increase in the frequency of storms from the south leads to greater agitation inside the Port.

Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feser, F.

2005-07-01

In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

Traveling waves and conservation laws for highly nonlinear wave equations modeling Hertz chains

Science.gov (United States)

Przedborski, Michelle; Anco, Stephen C.

2017-09-01

A highly nonlinear, fourth-order wave equation that models the continuum theory of long wavelength pulses in weakly compressed, homogeneous, discrete chains with a general power-law contact interaction is studied. For this wave equation, all solitary wave solutions and all nonlinear periodic wave solutions, along with all conservation laws, are derived. The solutions are explicitly parameterized in terms of the asymptotic value of the wave amplitude in the case of solitary waves and the peak of the wave amplitude in the case of nonlinear periodic waves. All cases in which the solution expressions can be stated in an explicit analytic form using elementary functions are worked out. In these cases, explicit expressions for the total energy and total momentum for all solutions are obtained as well. The derivation of the solutions uses the conservation laws combined with an energy analysis argument to reduce the wave equation directly to a separable first-order differential equation that determines the wave amplitude in terms of the traveling wave variable. This method can be applied more generally to other highly nonlinear wave equations.

Extreme winds and waves for offshore turbines: Coupling atmosphere and wave modeling for design and operation in coastal zones

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Bolanos, Rodolfo; Du, Jianting

modeling for oshore wind farms. This modeling system consists of the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the wave model SWAN and an interface the Wave Boundary Layer Model WBLM, within the framework of coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system COAWST...... (Hereinafter the WRF-WBLM-SWAN model). WBLM is implemented in SWAN, and it calculates stress and kinetic energy budgets in the lowest atmospheric layer where the wave-induced stress is introduced to the atmospheric modeling. WBLM ensures consistent calculation of stress for both the atmospheric and wave......, which can aect the choice of the off-shore wind turbine type. X-WiWa examined various methodologies for wave modeling. The offline coupling system using atmospheric data such as WRF or global reanalysis wind field to the MIKE 21 SW model has been improved with considerations of stability, air density...

Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Cho, Chunho

2012-01-01

The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also

The Red Sea: An Arena for Wind-Wave Modeling in Enclosed Seas

KAUST Repository

Langodan, Sabique

2016-01-01

weather and climate is crucial for a wide range of applications, including oceanographic studies, maritime activities and ocean engineering. Despite being one of the important world shipping routes, the wind-wave characteristics in the Red Sea are yet

Application of multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models in radiation belt modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Aryan, H.; Kang, S. B.; Balikhin, M. A.; Fok, M. C. H.; Agapitov, O. V.; Komar, C. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Nagai, T.; Sibeck, D. G.

2017-12-01

Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model along with many other radiation belt models require inputs for pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. In this study we incorporate recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of MeV electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multi-parameter wave models resembles the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.

The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Young-Kwon

2014-01-01

Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

Maximizing effectiveness of adaptation action in Pacific Island communities using coastal wave attenuation models

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, H.; Carruthers, T.; Allison, M. A.; Weathers, D.; Moss, L.; Timmermans, H.

2017-12-01

Pacific Island communities are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, specifically accelerating rates of sea level rise, changes to storm intensity and associated rainfall patterns resulting in flooding and shoreline erosion. Nature-based adaptation is being planned not only to reduce the risk from shoreline erosion, but also to support benefits of a healthy ecosystem (e.g., supporting fisheries or coral reefs). In order to assess potential effectiveness of the nature-based actions to dissipate wave energy, two-dimensional X-Beach models were developed to predict the wave attenuation effect of coastal adaptation actions at the pilot sites—the villages of Naselesele and Somosomo on Taveuni island, Fiji. Both sites are experiencing serious shoreline erosion due to sea level rise and storm wave. The water depth (single-beam bathymetry), land elevation (truck-based LiDAR), and vegetation data including stem density and height were collected in both locations in a June 2017 field experiment. Wave height and water velocity were also measured for the model setup and calibration using a series of bottom-mounted instruments deployed in the 0-15 m water depth portions of the study grid. The calibrated model will be used to evaluate a range of possible adaptation actions identified by the community members of Naselesele and Somosomo. Particularly, multiple storm scenario runs with management-relevant shoreline restoration/adaptation options will be implemented to evaluate efficiencies of each adaptation action (e.g., no action, with additional planted trees, with sand mining, with seawalls constructed with natural materials, etc.). These model results will help to better understand how proposed adaption actions may influence future shoreline change and maximize benefits to communities in island nations across the SW Pacific.

Climate change at the coast: from global to local

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watkinson, A.R.

2009-01-01

The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

Wave-induced stress and breaking of sea ice in a coupled hydrodynamic discrete-element wave-ice model

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Agnieszka

2017-11-01

In this paper, a coupled sea ice-wave model is developed and used to analyze wave-induced stress and breaking in sea ice for a range of wave and ice conditions. The sea ice module is a discrete-element bonded-particle model, in which ice is represented as cuboid grains floating on the water surface that can be connected to their neighbors by elastic joints. The joints may break if instantaneous stresses acting on them exceed their strength. The wave module is based on an open-source version of the Non-Hydrostatic WAVE model (NHWAVE). The two modules are coupled with proper boundary conditions for pressure and velocity, exchanged at every wave model time step. In the present version, the model operates in two dimensions (one vertical and one horizontal) and is suitable for simulating compact ice in which heave and pitch motion dominates over surge. In a series of simulations with varying sea ice properties and incoming wavelength it is shown that wave-induced stress reaches maximum values at a certain distance from the ice edge. The value of maximum stress depends on both ice properties and characteristics of incoming waves, but, crucially for ice breaking, the location at which the maximum occurs does not change with the incoming wavelength. Consequently, both regular and random (Jonswap spectrum) waves break the ice into floes with almost identical sizes. The width of the zone of broken ice depends on ice strength and wave attenuation rates in the ice.

Applicability of WaveWatch-III wave model to fatigue assessment of offshore floating structures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zou, T.; Kaminski, M.L.

2016-01-01

In design and operation of floating offshore structures, one has to avoid fatigue failures caused by action of ocean waves. The aim of this paper is to investigate the applicability of WaveWatch-III wave model to fatigue assessment of offshore floating structures. The applicability was investigated

Computational study of nonlinear plasma waves. I. Simulation model and monochromatic wave propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuda, Y.; Crawford, F.W.

1975-01-01

An economical low-noise plasma simulation model originated by Denavit is applied to a series of problems associated with electrostatic wave propagation in a one-dimensional, collisionless, Maxwellian plasma, in the absence of magnetic field. The model is described and tested, first in the absence of an applied signal, and then with a small amplitude perturbation. These tests serve to establish the low-noise features of the model, and to verify the theoretical linear dispersion relation at wave energy levels as low as 10 -6 of the plasma thermal energy: Better quantitative results are obtained, for comparable computing time, than can be obtained by conventional particle simulation models, or direct solution of the Vlasov equation. The method is then used to study propagation of an essentially monochromatic plane wave. Results on amplitude oscillation and nonlinear frequency shift are compared with available theories

A wave model for dwarf novae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sparks, W.M.; Kutter, G.S.

1980-01-01

The rapid coherent oscillation during a dwarf nova outburst is attributed to an accretion-driven wave going around the white dwarf component of the binary system. The increase and decrease in the period of this oscillation is due to the change in the velocity of the wave as it is first being driven and then damped. Qualitatively, a large number of observations can be explained with such a model. The beginnings of a mathematical representation of this model are developed. (orig.)

Estimating daily climatologies for climate indices derived from climate model data and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Mahlstein, Irina; Spirig, Christoph; Liniger, Mark A; Appenzeller, Christof

2015-01-01

Climate indices help to describe the past, present, and the future climate. They are usually closer related to possible impacts and are therefore more illustrative to users than simple climate means. Indices are often based on daily data series and thresholds. It is shown that the percentile-based thresholds are sensitive to the method of computation, and so are the climatological daily mean and the daily standard deviation, which are used for bias corrections of daily climate model data. Sample size issues of either the observed reference period or the model data lead to uncertainties in these estimations. A large number of past ensemble seasonal forecasts, called hindcasts, is used to explore these sampling uncertainties and to compare two different approaches. Based on a perfect model approach it is shown that a fitting approach can improve substantially the estimates of daily climatologies of percentile-based thresholds over land areas, as well as the mean and the variability. These improvements are relevant for bias removal in long-range forecasts or predictions of climate indices based on percentile thresholds. But also for climate change studies, the method shows potential for use. Key Points More robust estimates of daily climate characteristics Statistical fitting approach Based on a perfect model approach PMID:26042192

Computational study of nonlinear plasma waves. I. Simulation model and monochromatic wave propagtion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matda, Y.; Crawford, F.W.

1974-12-01

An economical low noise plasma simulation model is applied to a series of problems associated with electrostatic wave propagation in a one-dimensional, collisionless, Maxwellian plasma, in the absence of magnetic field. The model is described and tested, first in the absence of an applied signal, and then with a small amplitude perturbation, to establish the low noise features and to verify the theoretical linear dispersion relation at wave energy levels as low as 0.000,001 of the plasma thermal energy. The method is then used to study propagation of an essentially monochromatic plane wave. Results on amplitude oscillation and nonlinear frequency shift are compared with available theories. The additional phenomena of sideband instability and satellite growth, stimulated by large amplitude wave propagation and the resulting particle trapping, are described. (auth)

Pleistocene climate, phylogeny, and climate envelope models: an integrative approach to better understand species' response to climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Michelle Lawing

Full Text Available Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models, phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species, and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr.

Hydraulic Model Tests on Modified Wave Dragon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hald, Tue; Lynggaard, Jakob

A floating model of the Wave Dragon (WD) was built in autumn 1998 by the Danish Maritime Institute in scale 1:50, see Sørensen and Friis-Madsen (1999) for reference. This model was subjected to a series of model tests and subsequent modifications at Aalborg University and in the following...... are found in Hald and Lynggaard (2001). Model tests and reconstruction are carried out during the phase 3 project: ”Wave Dragon. Reconstruction of an existing model in scale 1:50 and sequentiel tests of changes to the model geometry and mass distribution parameters” sponsored by the Danish Energy Agency...

Near shore waves, long-shore currents and sediment transport along micro-tidal beaches, central west coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Philip, C.S.; SanilKumar, V.; Dora, G.U.; Johnson, G.

Coastlines are undergoing constant geomorphologic changes with respect to the incident wave climate. Based on waves measured at 9 m water depth, simulation of near shore wave transformation is done using REFDIF-1 numerical model and the near shore...

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

Science.gov (United States)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

A Blast Wave Model With Viscous Corrections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Z; Fries, R J

2017-01-01

Hadronic observables in the final stage of heavy ion collision can be described well by fluid dynamics or blast wave parameterizations. We improve existing blast wave models by adding shear viscous corrections to the particle distributions in the Navier-Stokes approximation. The specific shear viscosity η/s of a hadron gas at the freeze-out temperature is a new parameter in this model. We extract the blast wave parameters with viscous corrections from experimental data which leads to constraints on the specific shear viscosity at kinetic freeze-out. Preliminary results show η/s is rather small. (paper)

A Blast Wave Model With Viscous Corrections

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Z.; Fries, R. J.

2017-04-01

Hadronic observables in the final stage of heavy ion collision can be described well by fluid dynamics or blast wave parameterizations. We improve existing blast wave models by adding shear viscous corrections to the particle distributions in the Navier-Stokes approximation. The specific shear viscosity η/s of a hadron gas at the freeze-out temperature is a new parameter in this model. We extract the blast wave parameters with viscous corrections from experimental data which leads to constraints on the specific shear viscosity at kinetic freeze-out. Preliminary results show η/s is rather small.

Wave and tidal level analysis, maritime climate change, navigation's strategy and impact on the costal defences - Study case of São Paulo State Coastline Harbour Areas (Brazil)

Science.gov (United States)

Alfredini, P.; Pezzoli, A.; Cristofori, E. I.; Dovetta, A.; Arasaki, E.

2012-04-01

São Paulo State Coastline Harbour Area concentrates around of 40% of Brazilian GNP, Santos Harbour is the America South Atlantic Hub Port and São Sebastião Oil Maritime Terminal is the most important oil and gas facility of PETROBRAS, the Brazilian National Petroleum Company. Santos Harbour had in the last decade increased rapidly the container handling rate, being the first in Latin America. In the last decade important oil and gas reserves were discovered in the Santos Oceanic Basin and São Paulo Coastline received a big demand for supplier ships harbours for the petroleum industry. Santos Metropolitan Region is one of the most important of Brazilian Coastline, also considering the turism. For that great economic growth scenario it is very important to have the main maritime hydrodynamics forcing processes, wave climate and tidal levels, well known, considering the sea hazards influence in ship operations. Since the hindcast just represents the deep water wave climate, to make time-series of the waves parameters in coastal waters, for evaluation of sea hazards and ship operations, it is necessary to take into acount the variations of those parameters in shallow waters with coastal instrumental data. Analysis of long term wave data-base (1957-2002) generated by a comparison between wave's data modeled by a "deep water model" (ERA40-ECMWF) and measured wave's data in the years 1982-1984 by a coastal buoy in Santos littoral (São Paulo State, Brazil) was made. Calibration coefficients according to angular sectors of wave's direction were obtained by the comparison of the instrument data with the modeled ones, and applied to the original scenarios. Validation checking procedures with instrumental measurements of storm surges made in other years than 1982-1984 shows high level of confidence. The analysis of the wave climate change on the extreme storm surge wave's conditions, selecting cases of Hs > 3,0 m, using that virtual data-base shows an increase in the Hs

Investigation of Wave Energy Converter Effects on Wave Fields: A Modeling Sensitivity Study in Monterey Bay CA.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roberts, Jesse D.; Grace Chang; Jason Magalen; Craig Jones

2014-08-01

A n indust ry standard wave modeling tool was utilized to investigate model sensitivity to input parameters and wave energy converter ( WEC ) array deploym ent scenarios. Wave propagation was investigated d ownstream of the WECs to evaluate overall near - and far - field effects of WEC arrays. The sensitivity study illustrate d that b oth wave height and near - bottom orbital velocity we re subject to the largest pote ntial variations, each decreas ed in sensitivity as transmission coefficient increase d , as number and spacing of WEC devices decrease d , and as the deployment location move d offshore. Wave direction wa s affected consistently for all parameters and wave perio d was not affected (or negligibly affected) by varying model parameters or WEC configuration .

Climate of migration? How climate triggered migration from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century

Science.gov (United States)

Glaser, Rüdiger; Himmelsbach, Iso; Bösmeier, Annette

2017-11-01

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the extent to which climate and climatic change can have a negative impact on societies by triggering migration, or even contribute to conflict. It summarizes results from the transdisciplinary project Climate of migration (funded 2010-2014), whose innovative title was created by Franz Mauelshagen and Uwe Lübken. The overall goal of this project was to analyze the relation between climatic and socioeconomic parameters and major migration waves from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century. The article assesses the extent to which climatic conditions triggered these migration waves. The century investigated was in general characterized by the Little Ice Age with three distinct cooling periods, causing major glacier advances in the alpine regions and numerous climatic extremes such as major floods, droughts and severe winter. Societal changes were tremendous, marked by the warfare during the Napoleonic era (until 1815), the abolition of serfdom (1817), the bourgeois revolution (1847/48), economic freedom (1862), the beginning of industrialization accompanied by large-scale rural-urban migration resulting in urban poverty, and finally by the foundation of the German Empire in 1871.The presented study is based on quantitative data and a qualitative, information-based discourse analysis. It considers climatic conditions as well as socioeconomic and political issues, leading to the hypothesis of a chain of effects ranging from unfavorable climatic conditions to a decrease in crop yields to rising cereal prices and finally to emigration. These circumstances were investigated extensively for the peak emigration years identified with each migration wave. Furthermore, the long-term relations between emigration and the prevailing climatic conditions, crop yields and cereal prices were statistically evaluated with a sequence of linear models which were significant with explanatory power between 22 and 38 %.

Improvements on Semi-Classical Distorted-Wave model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun Weili; Watanabe, Y.; Kuwata, R. [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan); Kohno, M.; Ogata, K.; Kawai, M.

1998-03-01

A method of improving the Semi-Classical Distorted Wave (SCDW) model in terms of the Wigner transform of the one-body density matrix is presented. Finite size effect of atomic nuclei can be taken into account by using the single particle wave functions for harmonic oscillator or Wood-Saxon potential, instead of those based on the local Fermi-gas model which were incorporated into previous SCDW model. We carried out a preliminary SCDW calculation of 160 MeV (p,p`x) reaction on {sup 90}Zr with the Wigner transform of harmonic oscillator wave functions. It is shown that the present calculation of angular distributions increase remarkably at backward angles than the previous ones and the agreement with the experimental data is improved. (author)

Model-based dispersive wave processing: A recursive Bayesian solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Candy, J.V.; Chambers, D.H.

1999-01-01

Wave propagation through dispersive media represents a significant problem in many acoustic applications, especially in ocean acoustics, seismology, and nondestructive evaluation. In this paper we propose a propagation model that can easily represent many classes of dispersive waves and proceed to develop the model-based solution to the wave processing problem. It is shown that the underlying wave system is nonlinear and time-variable requiring a recursive processor. Thus the general solution to the model-based dispersive wave enhancement problem is developed using a Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) approach and shown to lead to the recursive, nonlinear extended Kalman filter (EKF) processor. The problem of internal wave estimation is cast within this framework. The specific processor is developed and applied to data synthesized by a sophisticated simulator demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. copyright 1999 Acoustical Society of America.

Animating climate model data

Science.gov (United States)

DaPonte, John S.; Sadowski, Thomas; Thomas, Paul

2006-05-01

This paper describes a collaborative project conducted by the Computer Science Department at Southern Connecticut State University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS). Animations of output from a climate simulation math model used at GISS to predict rainfall and circulation have been produced for West Africa from June to September 2002. These early results have assisted scientists at GISS in evaluating the accuracy of the RM3 climate model when compared to similar results obtained from satellite imagery. The results presented below will be refined to better meet the needs of GISS scientists and will be expanded to cover other geographic regions for a variety of time frames.

Modeling elastic wave propagation in kidney stones with application to shock wave lithotripsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Cleveland, Robin O; Sapozhnikov, Oleg A

2005-10-01

A time-domain finite-difference solution to the equations of linear elasticity was used to model the propagation of lithotripsy waves in kidney stones. The model was used to determine the loading on the stone (principal stresses and strains and maximum shear stresses and strains) due to the impact of lithotripsy shock waves. The simulations show that the peak loading induced in kidney stones is generated by constructive interference from shear waves launched from the outer edge of the stone with other waves in the stone. Notably the shear wave induced loads were significantly larger than the loads generated by the classic Hopkinson or spall effect. For simulations where the diameter of the focal spot of the lithotripter was smaller than that of the stone the loading decreased by more than 50%. The constructive interference was also sensitive to shock rise time and it was found that the peak tensile stress reduced by 30% as rise time increased from 25 to 150 ns. These results demonstrate that shear waves likely play a critical role in stone comminution and that lithotripters with large focal widths and short rise times should be effective at generating high stresses inside kidney stones.

Economy-Energy-Climate Interaction. The Model Wiagem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kemfert, C.

2001-09-01

This paper presents an integrated economy-energy-climate model WIAGEM (World Integrated Assessment General Equilibrium Model) which incorporates economic, energetic and climatic modules in an integrated assessment approach. In order to evaluate market and non-market costs and benefits of climate change WIAGEM combines an economic approach with a special focus on the international energy market and integrates climate interrelations by temperature changes and sea level variations. WIAGEM bases on 25 world regions which are aggregated to 11 trading regions and 14 sectors within each region. The representation of the economic relations is based on an intertemporal general equilibrium approach and contains the international markets for oil, coal and gas. The model incorporates all greenhouse gases (GHG) which influence the potential global temperature, the sea level variation and the assessed probable impacts in terms of costs and benefits of climate change. Market and non market damages are evaluated due to the damage costs approaches of Tol (2001). Additionally, this model includes net changes in GHG emissions from sources and removals by sinks resulting from land use change and forest activities. This paper describes the model structure in detail and outlines some general results, especially the impacts of climate change. As a result, climate change impacts do matter within the next 50 years, developing regions face high economic losses in terms of welfare and GDP losses. The inclusion of sinks and other GHG changes results significantly

Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

Science.gov (United States)

Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem

2010-01-01

Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. P. French

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

Development of Wave Dragon from Scale 1:50 to Prototype

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soerensen, H. C.; Friis-Madsen, E.; Panhauser, W.

2003-01-01

The Wave Dragon is a 4 to 11 MW offshore wave energy converter of the overtopping type. It basically consists of two wave reflectors focusing the waves towards a ramp, a reservoir for collecting the overtopping water and a number of hydro turbines for converting the pressure head into power....... In the period from 1998 to 2001 extensive testing on a scale 1:50 model was carried out. During the last month, testing has started on a prototype of the Wave Dragon in Nissum Bredning, Denmark (wave climate in scale 1:4.5 of the North Sea). The prototype has been grid connected in June 2003 as the world...

Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

2009-01-01

This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H.J.; Dubus, I.G.; Nolan, B.T.; Hollis, J.M.

2008-01-01

A climatic classification for Europe suitable for pesticide fate modelling was constructed using a 3-stage process involving the identification of key climatic variables, the extraction of the dominant modes of spatial variability in those variables and the use of k-means clustering to identify regions with similar climates. The procedure identified 16 coherent zones that reflect the variability of climate across Europe whilst maintaining a manageable number of zones for subsequent modelling studies. An analysis of basic climatic parameters for each zone demonstrates the success of the scheme in identifying distinct climatic regions. Objective criteria were used to identify one representative 26-year daily meteorological series from a European dataset for each zone. The representativeness of each series was then verified against the zonal classifications. These new FOOTPRINT climate zones provide a state-of-the-art objective classification of European climate complete with representative daily data that are suitable for use in pesticide fate modelling. - The FOOTPRINT climatic zones provide an objective climatic classification and daily climate series that may be used for the modelling of pesticide fate across Europe

Climate sensitivity of marine energy

OpenAIRE

Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

2005-01-01

Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversi...

Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2014-11-01

Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

Antiferromagnetism and d-wave superconductivity in the Hubbard model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krahl, H.C.

2007-07-25

The two-dimensional Hubbard model is a promising effective model for the electronic degrees of freedom in the copper-oxide planes of high temperature superconductors. We present a functional renormalization group approach to this model with focus on antiferromagnetism and d-wave superconductivity. In order to make the relevant degrees of freedom more explicitly accessible on all length scales, we introduce composite bosonic fields mediating the interaction between the fermions. Spontaneous symmetry breaking is reflected in a non-vanishing expectation value of a bosonic field. The emergence of a coupling in the d-wave pairing channel triggered by spin wave fluctuations is demonstrated. Furthermore, the highest temperature at which the interaction strength for the electrons diverges in the renormalization flow is calculated for both antiferromagnetism and d-wave superconductivity over a wide range of doping. This ''pseudo-critical'' temperature signals the onset of local ordering. Moreover, the temperature dependence of d-wave superconducting order is studied within a simplified model characterized by a single coupling in the d-wave pairing channel. The phase transition within this model is found to be of the Kosterlitz-Thouless type. (orig.)

Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2013-04-01

Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

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Xian-Ge Hu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

Evaluation of major heat waves' mechanisms in EURO-CORDEX RCMs over Central Europe

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Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

2018-06-01

The main aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate major heat waves in Central Europe and their associated meteorological factors. Three reference major heat waves (1994, 2006, and 2015) were identified in the E-OBS gridded data set, based on their temperature characteristics, length and spatial extent. Atmospheric circulation, precipitation, net shortwave radiation, and evaporative fraction anomalies during these events were assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The analogous major heat waves and their links to the aforementioned factors were analysed in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs driven by various global climate models in the 1970-2016 period. All three reference major heat waves were associated with favourable circulation conditions, precipitation deficit, reduced evaporative fraction and increased net shortwave radiation. This joint contribution of large-scale circulation and land-atmosphere interactions is simulated with difficulties in majority of the RCMs, which affects the magnitude of modelled major heat waves. In some cases, the seemingly good reproduction of major heat waves' magnitude is erroneously achieved through extremely favourable circulation conditions compensated by a substantial surplus of soil moisture or vice versa. These findings point to different driving mechanisms of major heat waves in some RCMs compared to observations, which should be taken into account when analysing and interpreting future projections of these events.

Development of ALARO-Climate regional climate model for a very high resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Skalak, Petr; Farda, Ales; Brozkova, Radmila; Masek, Jan

2014-05-01

ALARO-Climate is a new regional climate model (RCM) derived from the ALADIN LAM model family. It is based on the numerical weather prediction model ALARO and developed at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The model is expected to able to work in the so called "grey zone" physics (horizontal resolution of 4 - 7 km) and at the same time retain its ability to be operated in resolutions in between 20 and 50 km, which are typical for contemporary generation of regional climate models. Here we present the main results of the RCM ALARO-Climate model simulations in 25 and 6.25 km resolutions on the longer time-scale (1961-1990). The model was driven by the ERA-40 re-analyses and run on the integration domain of ~ 2500 x 2500 km size covering the central Europe. The simulated model climate was compared with the gridded observation of air temperature (mean, maximum, minimum) and precipitation from the E-OBS version dataset 8. Other simulated parameters (e.g., cloudiness, radiation or components of water cycle) were compared to the ERA-40 re-analyses. The validation of the first ERA-40 simulation in both, 25 km and 6.25 km resolutions, revealed significant cold biases in all seasons and overestimation of precipitation in the selected Central Europe target area (0° - 30° eastern longitude ; 40° - 60° northern latitude). The differences between these simulations were small and thus revealed a robustness of the model's physical parameterization on the resolution change. The series of 25 km resolution simulations with several model adaptations was carried out to study their effect on the simulated properties of climate variables and thus possibly identify a source of major errors in the simulated climate. The current investigation suggests the main reason for biases is related to the model physic. Acknowledgements: This study was performed within the frame of projects ALARO (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation) and CzechGlobe Centre (CZ.1

Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting