WorldWideScience

Sample records for watroute model area

  1. A model for lightning in littoral areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blaj, M.A.; Leferink, Frank Bernardus Johannes

    2009-01-01

    The littoral or coastal areas are different compared to the maritime or continental areas considering lightning. Only the last years some research about these areas has been carried out. The need for a model, regarding the lightning activity in these areas is much needed. And now, with the changes

  2. Conceptual geohydrological model of the separations area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Root, R.W.; Marine, I.W.

    1977-01-01

    Subsurface drilling in and around the Separations Areas (F-Area and H-Area of the Savannah River Plant) is providing detailed information for a conceptual model of the geology and hydrology underlying these areas. This conceptual model will provide the framework needed for a mathematical model of groundwater movement beneath these areas. Existing information substantiates the presence of two areally extensive clay layers and several discontinuous clay and sandy-clay layers. These layers occur in and between beds of clayey and silty sand that make up most of the subsurface material. Within these sand beds are geologic units of differing hydraulic conductivity. For the present scale of the model, the subsurface information is considered adequate in H-Area, but additional drilling is planned in F-Area

  3. Career Area Rotation Model: User's Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Richard B.; And Others

    The Career Area Rotation Model (CAROM) was developed as a result of the need for a computer based model describing the rotation of airmen within a specific career area (occupational specialty) through various categories of tour duty, accommodating all policies and interactions which are relevant for evaluation purposes. CAROM is an entity…

  4. E-Area LLWF Vadose Zone Model: Probabilistic Model for Estimating Subsided-Area Infiltration Rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dyer, J. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Flach, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-12-12

    A probabilistic model employing a Monte Carlo sampling technique was developed in Python to generate statistical distributions of the upslope-intact-area to subsided-area ratio (AreaUAi/AreaSAi) for closure cap subsidence scenarios that differ in assumed percent subsidence and the total number of intact plus subsided compartments. The plan is to use this model as a component in the probabilistic system model for the E-Area Performance Assessment (PA), contributing uncertainty in infiltration estimates.

  5. The ONKALO area model. Version 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, K.; Ahokas, T.; Ahokas, H.; Paulamaeki, S.; Paananen, M.; Gehoer, S.; Front, K.

    2007-11-01

    The geological model of the ONKALO area consists of three submodels: the lithological model, the brittle deformation model and the alteration model. The lithological model gives properties of definite rock units that can be defined on the basis the migmatite structures, textures and modal compositions. The brittle deformation model describes the results of brittle deformation, where geophysical and hydrogeological results are added. The alteration model describes occurrence of different alteration types and its possible effects. The rocks of Olkiluoto can be divided into two major classes: (1) supracrustal high-grade metamorphic rocks including various migmatitic gneisses, tonalitic-granodioriticgranitic gneisses, mica gneisses, quartz gneisses and mafic gneisses, and (2) igneous rocks including pegmatitic granites and diabase dykes. The migmatitic gneisses can further be divided into three subgroups in terms of the type of migmatite structure: veined gneisses, stromatic gneisses and diatexitic gneisses. On the basis of refolding and crosscutting relationships, the metamorphic supracrustal rocks have been subject to polyphased ductile deformation, including five stages. In 3D modelling of the lithological units, an assumption has been made, on the basis of measurements in outcrops, investigation trenches and drill cores, that the pervasive, composite foliation produced as a result a polyphase ductile deformation has a rather constant attitude in the ONKALO area. Consequently, the strike and dip of the foliation has been used as a tool, through which the lithologies have been correlated between the drillholes and from the surface to the drillholes. The bedrock in the Olkiluoto site has been subject to extensive hydrothermal alteration, which has taken place at reasonably low temperature conditions, the estimated temperature interval being from slightly over 300 deg C to less than 100 deg C. Two types of alteration can be observed: (1) pervasive (disseminated

  6. Thermohydrogeological modelling of the Whiteshell research area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, T.; Nakka, B.W.; O'Connor, P.A.; Uphori, D.U.; Reid, J.A.K.; Scheier, N.W.; Stanchell, F.W.

    1998-01-01

    This report presents details of the modelling that was done to support the development of the simplified geosphere model (GEONET), which was used in the assessment that was presented in the Environmental Impact Statement on the proposed concept for the disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste. Detailed modelling of groundwater flow, heat transport and contaminant transport through the geosphere was performed using the MOTIF finite-element computer code and the particle-tracking code TRACK3D. The GEONET model was developed using data from the Whiteshell Research Area, with a hypothetical disposal vault located at a depth of 500 m. This report first briefly describes the conceptual model and summarises the two-dimensional (2-D) simulations that were used initially to define an adequate 3-D representation of the system. The analysis showed that the configuration of major fracture zones could have a large influence on the groundwater flow patterns. These major fracture zones can have high velocities and large flows. The proximity of the radionuclide source to a major fracture zone may strongly influence the time for a radionuclide to be transported from the disposal vault to the surface. Groundwater flow was then simulated and advective/convective particle tracking was conducted in the selected 3-D representation of the system, to aid in selecting a suitable form for the simplified model to be used in the overall systems assessment with the SYVAC3-CC3 computer code. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the effects of (a) different natural geometries of part of the model domain, (b) different hydraulic properties, (c) construction, operation and closure of the vault, (d) the presence of a water supply well and (e) the presence of an open borehole. These analyses indicated that the shape of the topography and the presence of a major low-dipping fracture zone focuses groundwater passing through the vault into a discharge area that is much smaller than the area of the

  7. PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR AIRPORT RUNWAY SAFETY AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav SZABO

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The Laboratory of Aviation Safety and Security at CTU in Prague has recently started a project aimed at runway protection zones. The probability of exceeding by a certain distance from the runway in common incident/accident scenarios (take-off/landing overrun/veer-off, landing undershoot is being identified relative to the runway for any airport. As a result, the size and position of safety areas around runways are defined for the chosen probability. The basis for probability calculation is a probabilistic model using statistics from more than 1400 real-world cases where jet airplanes have been involved over the last few decades. Other scientific studies have contributed to understanding the issue and supported the model’s application to different conditions.

  8. Pinogram : a pine growth area model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leersnijder, R.P.

    1992-01-01

    Ideas about forest and forestry in the Netherlands have changed in recent years, partly because nature and recreation are in greater demand, partly because of growing environmental problems (air pollution, global warming) and partly because of the decrease in forest area worldwide. This has

  9. Bedrock model of the Veitsivaara area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Kuivamaeki, A.; Kurimo, M.; Anttila, P.; Front, K.; Pitkaenen, P.; Korkealaakso, J.; Vaittinen, T.

    1993-07-01

    Site investigations were carried out at Veitsivaara, in 1987-1991 in accordance with an investigation programme for radioactive waste disposal drawn up by Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO). The site was modelled in terms of rock types, fracturing, fracture structures and geophysical conditions, the main focus of examination was on fracturing and associated hydraulic conductivity. The various properties of the bedrock structures were classified by means a three-dimensional model. The descriptions of the models were stored in a computer system for illustration purposes. The rock types at Veitsivaara are tonalite gneiss, Tuliniemet potassium granite, amphipolite, granite porphyry and metadiabase, the last two of which occur in dykes

  10. Bedrock model of the Romuvaara area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Paananen, M.; Paulamaeki, S.; Anttila, P.; Pitkaenen, P.; Front, K.; Vaittinen, T.

    1992-05-01

    Site for the final disposal of the spent nuclear fuel investigations implemented in accordance with the research programme drawn up by Teollisuuden Voima Oy were carried out at Romuvaara, Kuhmo, in 1987 - 1991. Model of the site were compiled and used for describing the rock types, fractures, fracturing structures and geohydrological conditions, the main emphasis being on the examination of the bedrock fracturing and related hydraulic conductivity. Three-dimensional models were used for the classification of the various properties of the bedrock structures. The descriptive models were gathered together in a computerized system to facilitate illustration and strage. The rock types at Romuvaara are gneiss, mica gneiss, leucotonalite gneiss, amphibolite, granodiorite and metadiabase. The structural model for fracturing at the site contains 19 zones described in terms of a number of properties. The fracturing observed at Romuvaara ranges from local occurences of dence fracturing to significant, altered fracture zones. The structural model includes deduced values for hydraulic conductivity, deduced points of flow in the boreholes and measured hydraulic heads.Various classifications were used for assessment of hydraulic conductivity in the zones and solid bedrock, and in both cases conductivity was found to diminish with depth. Measured hydraulic heads were mostly found to support structural interpretation. The results were used for estimation of a three-dimensional hydraulic head distribution. Results from pumping tests carried out in the significant flow zone support the geometric interpretation

  11. Bedrock model of the Kivetty area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Paulamaeki, S.; Paananen, M.; Anttila, P.; Front, K.; Pitkaenen, P.; Korkealaakso, J.; Okko, O.

    1993-07-01

    Preliminary site investigations were carried out at Kivetty (in Finland), in 1987-1992 in accordance with the investigation programme drawn up by Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO). The site was modelled in terms of rock type, fracturing, fracture structures and geohydrological conditions, with the main emphasis being placed on fracturing and associated hydraulic conductivity. The various properties of the bedrock structures were classified in relation to a three-dimensional model. The descriptions of the models were stored in a computer system for the purpose of illustration. The principal rock types encountered at the Kivetty site are porphyritic granodiorite and porphyritic granite, in addition to which even-grained granite and granodiorite, gabbro, and small felsic and mafic veins occur. The rocks have undergone two distinct phases of deformation. (41 refs., 50 figs.)

  12. Bedrock model of the Olkiluoto area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Paananen, M.; Paulamaeki, S.; Anttila, P.; Front, K.; Pitkaenen, P.; Hassinen, P.; Ylinen, A.

    1993-07-01

    Site investigations were carried out at Olkiluoto (in Finland) in 1987-1992 in accordance with an investigation programme drawn up by Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO). The site was modelled in terms of rock types, fracturing, fracture structures and geohydrological conditions, the main focus of examination was on fracturing and associated hydraulic conductivity. The various properties of the bedrock structures were classified by means of a three-dimensional model. The descriptions of the models were gathered in a computer system for illustration and storage purposes. The rock types at Olkiluoto are migmatite, which may be divided into mica gneiss and veined gneiss, and also tonalite and coarse-grained migmatite granite (pegmatite). (64 refs., 65 figs.)

  13. A model-based approach to estimating forest area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts

    2006-01-01

    A logistic regression model based on forest inventory plot data and transformations of Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery was used to predict the probability of forest for 15 study areas in Indiana, USA, and 15 in Minnesota, USA. Within each study area, model-based estimates of forest area were obtained for circular areas with radii of 5 km, 10 km, and 15 km and...

  14. Bedrock Model of the Syyry area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Kuivamaeki, A.; Kurimo, M.; Paananen, M.; Anttila, P.; Front, K.; Pitkaenen, P.; Hassinen, P.; Ylinen, A.

    1993-09-01

    Preliminary site investigations implemented in accordance with the research programme drawn up by Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO) were carried out at Syyry (in Finland) in 1987-1992. Models of the site were compiled and used for describing the rock types, fracturing, fracture structures and geohydrological conditions, the main emphasis being on the examination of the bedrock fracturing and related hydraulic conductivity. Three-dimensional models were used for the classification of the various properties of the bedrock structures. The descriptive models were gathered into a computer system to facilitate illustration and storage. The main rock type at Syyry is tonalite. A mica gneiss formation SE of the investigation site dips towards the NW and delimits the tonalite as far as the central part of the investigation site. The miga gneiss has a heterogeneous composition and includes intermediate layers consisting of quartz feldspar schist and amphibolite. There are mafic formations in the vicinity of the investigation site. The intrusive rocks have been deformed during three plastic and three mainly brittle deformation stages. (47 refs., 61 figs.)

  15. Fluid flow modeling in complex areas*, **

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poullet Pascal

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We show first results of 3D simulation of sea currents in a realistic context. We use the full Navier–Stokes equations for incompressible viscous fluid. The problem is solved using a second order incremental projection method associated with the finite volume of the staggered (MAC scheme for the spatial discretization. After validation on classical cases, it is used in a numerical simulation of the Pointe à Pitre harbour area. The use of the fictious domain method permits us to take into account the complexity of bathymetric data and allows us to work with regular meshes and thus preserves the efficiency essential for a 3D code. Dans cette étude, nous présentons les premiers résultats de simulation d’un écoulement d’un fluide incompressible visqueux dans un contexte environnemental réel. L’approche utilisée utilise une méthode de domaines fictifs pour une prise en compte d’un domaine physique tridimensionnel très irrégulier. Le schéma numérique combine un schéma de projection incrémentale et des volumes finis utilisant des volumes de contrôle adaptés à un maillage décalé. Les tests de validation sont menés pour les cas tests de la cavité double entraînée ainsi que l’écoulement dans un canal avec un obstacle placé de manière asymmétrique.

  16. Modeling of terminal-area airplane fuel consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    Accurate modeling of airplane fuel consumption is necessary for air transportation policy-makers to properly : adjudicate trades between competing environmental and economic demands. Existing public models used for : computing terminal-area airplane ...

  17. Predicting artificailly drained areas by means of selective model ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Anders Bjørn; Beucher, Amélie; Iversen, Bo Vangsø

    . The approaches employed include decision trees, discriminant analysis, regression models, neural networks and support vector machines amongst others. Several models are trained with each method, using variously the original soil covariates and principal components of the covariates. With a large ensemble...... out since the mid-19th century, and it has been estimated that half of the cultivated area is artificially drained (Olesen, 2009). A number of machine learning approaches can be used to predict artificially drained areas in geographic space. However, instead of choosing the most accurate model....... The study aims firstly to train a large number of models to predict the extent of artificially drained areas using various machine learning approaches. Secondly, the study will develop a method for selecting the models, which give a good prediction of artificially drained areas, when used in conjunction...

  18. Groundwater Pathway Model for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Technical Area 54, Area G, Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, Philip H. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Chu, Shaoping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Miller, Terry A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Strobridge, Daniel M. [Neptune Inc., Los Alamos, NM (United States); Cole, Gregory L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Birdsell, Kay H. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Robinson, Bruce Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Gable, Carl Walter [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Broxton, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Springer, Everett P. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Schofield, Tracy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-02-10

    This report consists of four major sections, including this introductory section. Section 2 provides an overview of previous investigations related to the development of the current sitescale model. The methods and data used to develop the 3-D groundwater model and the techniques used to distill that model into a form suitable for use in the GoldSim models are discussed in Section 3. Section 4 presents the results of the model development effort and discusses some of the uncertainties involved. Eight attachments that provide details about the components and data used in this groundwater pathway model are also included with this report. The groundwater modeling effort reported here is a revision of the work that was conducted in 2005 (Stauffer et al., 2005a) in support of the 2008 Area G performance assessment and composite analysis (LANL, 2008). The revision effort was undertaken primarily to incorporate new geologic information that has been collected since 2003 at, and in the vicinity of, Area G. The new data were used to create a more accurate geologic framework model (GFM) that forms the basis of the numerical modeling of the site’s long-term performance. The groundwater modeling uses mean hydrologic properties of the geologic strata underlying Area G; this revision includes an evaluation of the impacts that natural variability in these properties may have on the model projections.

  19. An Improved QTM Subdivision Model with Approximate Equal-area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHAO Xuesheng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To overcome the defect of large area deformation in the traditional QTM subdivision model, an improved subdivision model is proposed which based on the “parallel method” and the thought of the equal area subdivision with changed-longitude-latitude. By adjusting the position of the parallel, this model ensures that the grid area between two adjacent parallels combined with no variation, so as to control area variation and variation accumulation of the QTM grid. The experimental results show that this improved model not only remains some advantages of the traditional QTM model(such as the simple calculation and the clear corresponding relationship with longitude/latitude grid, etc, but also has the following advantages: ①this improved model has a better convergence than the traditional one. The ratio of area_max/min finally converges to 1.38, far less than 1.73 of the “parallel method”; ②the grid units in middle and low latitude regions have small area variations and successive distributions; meanwhile, with the increase of subdivision level, the grid units with large variations gradually concentrate to the poles; ③the area variation of grid unit will not cumulate with the increasing of subdivision level.

  20. Leaf Area Estimation Models for Ginger ( Zingibere officinale Rosc ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was carried out to develop leaf area estimation models for three cultivars (37/79, 38/79 and 180/73) and four accessions (29/86, 30/86, 47/86 and 52/86) of ginger. Significant variations were observed among the tested genotypes in leaf length (L), leaf width (W) and actual leaf area (ALA). Leaf area was highly ...

  1. Functional Mixed Effects Model for Small Area Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiti, Tapabrata; Sinha, Samiran; Zhong, Ping-Shou

    2016-09-01

    Functional data analysis has become an important area of research due to its ability of handling high dimensional and complex data structures. However, the development is limited in the context of linear mixed effect models, and in particular, for small area estimation. The linear mixed effect models are the backbone of small area estimation. In this article, we consider area level data, and fit a varying coefficient linear mixed effect model where the varying coefficients are semi-parametrically modeled via B-splines. We propose a method of estimating the fixed effect parameters and consider prediction of random effects that can be implemented using a standard software. For measuring prediction uncertainties, we derive an analytical expression for the mean squared errors, and propose a method of estimating the mean squared errors. The procedure is illustrated via a real data example, and operating characteristics of the method are judged using finite sample simulation studies.

  2. A whole stand basal area projection model for Appalachian hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Brooks; Lichun Jiang; Matthew Perkowski; Benktesh Sharma

    2008-01-01

    Two whole-stand basal area projection models were developed for Appalachian hardwood stands. The proposed equations are an algebraic difference projection form based on existing basal area and the change in age, trees per acre, and/or dominant height. Average equation error was less than 10 square feet per acre and residuals exhibited no irregular trends.

  3. Inverse Gaussian model for small area estimation via Gibbs sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present a Bayesian method for estimating small area parameters under an inverse Gaussian model. The method is extended to estimate small area parameters for finite populations. The Gibbs sampler is proposed as a mechanism for implementing the Bayesian paradigm. We illustrate the method by application to ...

  4. Models to support students’ understanding of measuring area of circles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rejeki, S.; Putri, R. I. I.

    2018-01-01

    Many studies showed that enormous students got confused about the concepts of measuring area of circles. The main reason is because mathematics classroom practices emphasized on memorizing formulas rather than understanding concepts. Therefore, in this study, a set of learning activities were designed as an innovation in learning area measurement of circles. The activities involved two models namely grid paper and reshaping which are respectively as a means and a strategy to support students’ learning of area measurement of circles. Design research was used as the research approach to achieve the aim. Thirty-eight of 8th graders in Indonesia were involved in this study. In this study, together with the contextual problems, the grid paper and reshaping sectors, which used as the models in this learning, helped the students to gradually develop their understanding of the area measurement of circles. The grid papers plays important role in comparing and estimating areas. Whereas, the reshaping sectors might support students’ understanding of the circumference and the area measurement of circles. Those two models could be the tool for promoting the informal theory of area measurement. Besides, the whole activities gave important role on distinguishing the area and perimeter of circles.

  5. General Separations Area (GSA) Groundwater Flow Model Update: Hydrostratigraphic Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bagwell, L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Bennett, P. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Flach, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-02-21

    This document describes the assembly, selection, and interpretation of hydrostratigraphic data for input to an updated groundwater flow model for the General Separations Area (GSA; Figure 1) at the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This report is one of several discrete but interrelated tasks that support development of an updated groundwater model (Bagwell and Flach, 2016).

  6. Mathematical model of parking space unit for triangular parking area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sundari, Teti; Iskandar, Taufiq; Halfiani, Vera; Munzir, Said; Ramli, Marwan

    2018-01-01

    Parking space unit (PSU) is an effective measure for the area size of a vehicle, including the free space and the width of the door opening of the vehicle (car). This article discusses a mathematical model for parking space of vehicles in triangular shape area. An optimization model for triangular parking lot is developed. Integer Linear Programming (ILP) method is used to determine the maximum number of the PSU. The triangular parking lot is in isosceles and equilateral triangles shape and implements four possible rows and five possible angles for each field. The vehicles which are considered are cars and motorcycles. The results show that the isosceles triangular parking area has 218 units of optimal PSU, which are 84 units of PSU for cars and 134 units of PSU for motorcycles. Equilateral triangular parking area has 688 units of optimal PSU, which are 175 units of PSU for cars and 513 units of PSU for motorcycles.

  7. MASKED AREAS IN SHEAR PEAK STATISTICS: A FORWARD MODELING APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bard, D.; Kratochvil, J. M.; Dawson, W.

    2016-01-01

    The statistics of shear peaks have been shown to provide valuable cosmological information beyond the power spectrum, and will be an important constraint of models of cosmology in forthcoming astronomical surveys. Surveys include masked areas due to bright stars, bad pixels etc., which must be accounted for in producing constraints on cosmology from shear maps. We advocate a forward-modeling approach, where the impacts of masking and other survey artifacts are accounted for in the theoretical prediction of cosmological parameters, rather than correcting survey data to remove them. We use masks based on the Deep Lens Survey, and explore the impact of up to 37% of the survey area being masked on LSST and DES-scale surveys. By reconstructing maps of aperture mass the masking effect is smoothed out, resulting in up to 14% smaller statistical uncertainties compared to simply reducing the survey area by the masked area. We show that, even in the presence of large survey masks, the bias in cosmological parameter estimation produced in the forward-modeling process is ≈1%, dominated by bias caused by limited simulation volume. We also explore how this potential bias scales with survey area and evaluate how much small survey areas are impacted by the differences in cosmological structure in the data and simulated volumes, due to cosmic variance

  8. Gravimetric Model of Quasigeoid in the Area of Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juraj Papčo

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available The gravimetric model of quasigeoid in the area of Slovakia was determined by using the revised and homogenised gravity mapping data in the scale of 1:25 000 from the area of Slovakia, and by using the mean Bouguer gravity anomalies with the resolution of 5´x7.5´ in the area 44°<φ<56° and 12°<λ<30° from abroad and by the digital terrain model DMR-2/ERTS89 with the resolution 3“ in the ellipsoidal latitude and 5“ in the ellipsoidal longitude from the area of Slovakia and the digital terrain model GTOPO30 with the resolution of 30“ in the ellipsoidal latitude and 30“ in the ellipsoidal longitude from abroad. The global part of the height anomaly was determined from the global geopotential model EGM96. The residual part of the height anomaly was determined by the Stokes integral formula. For the solution of the Stokes integra,l the Fast Fourier Transformation method in the spherical approximation was used. The gravimetric quasigeoid was tested by the GPS/levelling method using 46 points distributed on the area of Slovakia. The systematic trend of differences between height anomalies was rejected by the surface polynomial of second degree with 6 coefficients. The standard deviation after removing a systematic trend was 0.017 m

  9. Modelling catchment areas for secondary care providers: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Simon; Wardlaw, Jessica; Crouch, Susan; Carolan, Michelle

    2011-09-01

    Hospitals need to understand patient flows in an increasingly competitive health economy. New initiatives like Patient Choice and the Darzi Review further increase this demand. Essential to understanding patient flows are demographic and geographic profiles of health care service providers, known as 'catchment areas' and 'catchment populations'. This information helps Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) to review how their populations are accessing services, measure inequalities and commission services; likewise it assists Secondary Care Providers (SCPs) to measure and assess potential gains in market share, redesign services, evaluate admission thresholds and plan financial budgets. Unlike PCTs, SCPs do not operate within fixed geographic boundaries. Traditionally, SCPs have used administrative boundaries or arbitrary drive times to model catchment areas. Neither approach satisfactorily represents current patient flows. Furthermore, these techniques are time-consuming and can be challenging for healthcare managers to exploit. This paper presents three different approaches to define catchment areas, each more detailed than the previous method. The first approach 'First Past the Post' defines catchment areas by allocating a dominant SCP to each Census Output Area (OA). The SCP with the highest proportion of activity within each OA is considered the dominant SCP. The second approach 'Proportional Flow' allocates activity proportionally to each OA. This approach allows for cross-boundary flows to be captured in a catchment area. The third and final approach uses a gravity model to define a catchment area, which incorporates drive or travel time into the analysis. Comparing approaches helps healthcare providers to understand whether using more traditional and simplistic approaches to define catchment areas and populations achieves the same or similar results as complex mathematical modelling. This paper has demonstrated, using a case study of Manchester, that when estimating

  10. Geodynamic and petrophysical modelling in the Kraka area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frykman, P.

    2001-01-01

    The present report has been prepared with the aim of presenting a model for the burial history of the chalk section in the Kraka field based on seismic mapping, data from wells, backstripping and decompaction. The parameters and models for the petrophysical properties are also presented in the perspective of being usable in dynamic modelling. The present geological model is based on data originating from an existing study, and does therefore not include more recent well data or additional seismic data. The model is intended to be used for initialising the development of geodynamic flow modelling, and the model will therefore be updated and refined as the project processes. The burial history of the Kraka area will be used to guide the development of reservoir parameters in the chalk section through time. (BA)

  11. A New Model for Simulating TSS Washoff in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Crobeddu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the formulation and validation of the conceptual Runoff Quality Simulation Model (RQSM that was developed to simulate the erosion and transport of solid particles in urban areas. The RQSM assumes that solid particle accumulation on pervious and impervious areas is infinite. The RQSM simulates soil erosion using rainfall kinetic energy and solid particle transport with linear system theory. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the RQSM to show the influence of each parameter on the simulated load. Total suspended solid (TSS loads monitored at the outlet of the borough of Verdun in Canada and at three catchment outlets of the City of Champaign in the United States were used to validate the RQSM. TSS loads simulated by the RQSM were compared to measured loads and to loads simulated by the Rating Curve model and the Exponential model of the SWMM software. The simulation performance of the RQSM was comparable to the Exponential and Rating Curve models.

  12. Ecosystem modelling in the Forsmark area. Proceedings from two workshops modelling Eckarfjaerden and Bolundsfjaerden catchment areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Kautsky, Ulrik [eds.

    2004-11-01

    The siting program for a repository of spent fuel currently collects large set of data from the surface ecosystem, as well as from the geosphere. The data collected at the sites will be used for various purposes, mainly for the safety assessment for the repository and for environmental impact assessment. The safety assessment of the encapsulation plant also includes an assessment of the postclosure of the repository (SRCAN) at the two sites of current interest for a repository. To show important methods on how data from the sites should be used in a safety assessment, a report for methods concerning SRCAN will be produced. This report is a first step in showing how the site data will be used to understand the function and dynamics of the ecosystems and how it may be translated in various dose models. A more extensive report from The SurfaceNet taskforce is presented in SKB-R--05-01. This report is based on two workshops held in Grisslehamn, Uppland October 20-23, 2003 and in Marholmen, Uppland April 16-19, 2004. Participants from the site investigation program, the analysis group, safety assessment and research attended the workshops. The groups worked intensively for 3 full days respectively, and achieved the major findings in this report. The two workshops had approximately the same approach, although Marholmen was more focused on the terrestrial ecosystems and Grisslehamn on aquatic systems. Besides the major aim of the workshops, to examine function and dynamics of ecosystems translated into dose modelling, another purpose was to communicate the reasons for the sampling programmes, to train new resources and to get plenty of undisturbed time to generate a large amount of creative work. It also got the important role of increased understanding between different scientific disciplines. High quality data is important for validating the dose- and ecosystem models.

  13. Ecosystem modelling in the Forsmark area. Proceedings from two workshops modelling Eckarfjaerden and Bolundsfjaerden catchment areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Kautsky, Ulrik

    2004-11-01

    The siting program for a repository of spent fuel currently collects large set of data from the surface ecosystem, as well as from the geosphere. The data collected at the sites will be used for various purposes, mainly for the safety assessment for the repository and for environmental impact assessment. The safety assessment of the encapsulation plant also includes an assessment of the postclosure of the repository (SRCAN) at the two sites of current interest for a repository. To show important methods on how data from the sites should be used in a safety assessment, a report for methods concerning SRCAN will be produced. This report is a first step in showing how the site data will be used to understand the function and dynamics of the ecosystems and how it may be translated in various dose models. A more extensive report from The SurfaceNet taskforce is presented in SKB-R--05-01. This report is based on two workshops held in Grisslehamn, Uppland October 20-23, 2003 and in Marholmen, Uppland April 16-19, 2004. Participants from the site investigation program, the analysis group, safety assessment and research attended the workshops. The groups worked intensively for 3 full days respectively, and achieved the major findings in this report. The two workshops had approximately the same approach, although Marholmen was more focused on the terrestrial ecosystems and Grisslehamn on aquatic systems. Besides the major aim of the workshops, to examine function and dynamics of ecosystems translated into dose modelling, another purpose was to communicate the reasons for the sampling programmes, to train new resources and to get plenty of undisturbed time to generate a large amount of creative work. It also got the important role of increased understanding between different scientific disciplines. High quality data is important for validating the dose- and ecosystem models

  14. Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth

    OpenAIRE

    David Levinson; Wei Chen

    2007-01-01

    Empirical data and statistical models are used to answer the question of where new highway routes are most likely to be located. High-quality land-use, population distribution and highway network GIS data for the Twin CitiesMetropolitan Area from 1958 to 1990 are developed for this study. The highway system is classified into three levels, Interstate highways, divided highways, and secondary highways. Binary logit models estimate the new route growth probability of divided highways and second...

  15. Modeling interfacial area transport in multi-fluid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yarbro, Stephen Lee [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Many typical chemical engineering operations are multi-fluid systems. They are carried out in distillation columns (vapor/liquid), liquid-liquid contactors (liquid/liquid) and other similar devices. An important parameter is interfacial area concentration, which determines the rate of interfluid heat, mass and momentum transfer and ultimately, the overall performance of the equipment. In many cases, the models for determining interfacial area concentration are empirical and can only describe the cases for which there is experimental data. In an effort to understand multiphase reactors and the mixing process better, a multi-fluid model has been developed as part of a research effort to calculate interfacial area transport in several different types of in-line static mixers. For this work, the ensemble-averaged property conservation equations have been derived for each fluid and for the mixture. These equations were then combined to derive a transport equation for the interfacial area concentration. The final, one-dimensional model was compared to interfacial area concentration data from two sizes of Kenics in-line mixer, two sizes of concurrent jet and a Tee mixer. In all cases, the calculated and experimental data compared well with the highest scatter being with the Tee mixer comparison.

  16. Limited Area Forecasting and Statistical Modelling for Wind Energy Scheduling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg

    forecast accuracy for operational wind power scheduling. Numerical weather prediction history and scales of atmospheric motion are summarised, followed by a literature review of limited area wind speed forecasting. Hereafter, the original contribution to research on the topic is outlined. The quality...... control of wind farm data used as forecast reference is described in detail, and a preliminary limited area forecasting study illustrates the aggravation of issues related to numerical orography representation and accurate reference coordinates at ne weather model resolutions. For the o shore and coastal...... sites studied limited area forecasting is found to deteriorate wind speed prediction accuracy, while inland results exhibit a steady forecast performance increase with weather model resolution. Temporal smoothing of wind speed forecasts is shown to improve wind power forecast performance by up to almost...

  17. Modelling groundwater discharge areas using only digital elevation models as input data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Biology and Environmental Science

    2006-10-15

    Advanced geohydrological models require data on topography, soil distribution in three dimensions, vegetation, land use, bedrock fracture zones. To model present geohydrological conditions, these factors can be gathered with different techniques. If a future geohydrological condition is modelled in an area with positive shore displacement (say 5,000 or 10,000 years), some of these factors can be difficult to measure. This could include the development of wetlands and the filling of lakes. If the goal of the model is to predict distribution of groundwater recharge and discharge areas in the landscape, the most important factor is topography. The question is how much can topography alone explain the distribution of geohydrological objects in the landscape. A simplified description of the distribution of geohydrological objects in the landscape is that groundwater recharge areas occur at local elevation curvatures and discharge occurs in lakes, brooks, and low situated slopes. Areas in-between these make up discharge areas during wet periods and recharge areas during dry periods. A model that could predict this pattern only using topography data needs to be able to predict high ridges and future lakes and brooks. This study uses GIS software with four different functions using digital elevation models as input data, geomorphometrical parameters to predict landscape ridges, basin fill for predicting lakes, flow accumulations for predicting future waterways, and topographical wetness indexes for dividing in-between areas based on degree of wetness. An area between the village of and Forsmarks' Nuclear Power Plant has been used to calibrate the model. The area is within the SKB 10-metre Elevation Model (DEM) and has a high-resolution orienteering map for wetlands. Wetlands are assumed to be groundwater discharge areas. Five hundred points were randomly distributed across the wetlands. These are potential discharge points. Model parameters were chosen with the

  18. Modelling groundwater discharge areas using only digital elevation models as input data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars

    2006-10-01

    Advanced geohydrological models require data on topography, soil distribution in three dimensions, vegetation, land use, bedrock fracture zones. To model present geohydrological conditions, these factors can be gathered with different techniques. If a future geohydrological condition is modelled in an area with positive shore displacement (say 5,000 or 10,000 years), some of these factors can be difficult to measure. This could include the development of wetlands and the filling of lakes. If the goal of the model is to predict distribution of groundwater recharge and discharge areas in the landscape, the most important factor is topography. The question is how much can topography alone explain the distribution of geohydrological objects in the landscape. A simplified description of the distribution of geohydrological objects in the landscape is that groundwater recharge areas occur at local elevation curvatures and discharge occurs in lakes, brooks, and low situated slopes. Areas in-between these make up discharge areas during wet periods and recharge areas during dry periods. A model that could predict this pattern only using topography data needs to be able to predict high ridges and future lakes and brooks. This study uses GIS software with four different functions using digital elevation models as input data, geomorphometrical parameters to predict landscape ridges, basin fill for predicting lakes, flow accumulations for predicting future waterways, and topographical wetness indexes for dividing in-between areas based on degree of wetness. An area between the village of and Forsmarks' Nuclear Power Plant has been used to calibrate the model. The area is within the SKB 10-metre Elevation Model (DEM) and has a high-resolution orienteering map for wetlands. Wetlands are assumed to be groundwater discharge areas. Five hundred points were randomly distributed across the wetlands. These are potential discharge points. Model parameters were chosen with the

  19. Gridded rainfall estimation for distributed modeling in western mountainous areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreda, F.; Cong, S.; Schaake, J.; Smith, M.

    2006-05-01

    Estimation of precipitation in mountainous areas continues to be problematic. It is well known that radar-based methods are limited due to beam blockage. In these areas, in order to run a distributed model that accounts for spatially variable precipitation, we have generated hourly gridded rainfall estimates from gauge observations. These estimates will be used as basic data sets to support the second phase of the NWS-sponsored Distributed Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP 2). One of the major foci of DMIP 2 is to better understand the modeling and data issues in western mountainous areas in order to provide better water resources products and services to the Nation. We derive precipitation estimates using three data sources for the period of 1987-2002: 1) hourly cooperative observer (coop) gauges, 2) daily total coop gauges and 3) SNOw pack TELemetry (SNOTEL) daily gauges. The daily values are disaggregated using the hourly gauge values and then interpolated to approximately 4km grids using an inverse-distance method. Following this, the estimates are adjusted to match monthly mean values from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Several analyses are performed to evaluate the gridded estimates for DMIP 2 experiments. These gridded inputs are used to generate mean areal precipitation (MAPX) time series for comparison to the traditional mean areal precipitation (MAP) time series derived by the NWS' California-Nevada River Forecast Center for model calibration. We use two of the DMIP 2 basins in California and Nevada: the North Fork of the American River (catchment area 885 sq. km) and the East Fork of the Carson River (catchment area 922 sq. km) as test areas. The basins are sub-divided into elevation zones. The North Fork American basin is divided into two zones above and below an elevation threshold. Likewise, the Carson River basin is subdivided in to four zones. For each zone, the analyses include: a) overall

  20. Dynamic modeling of interfacial structures via interfacial area transport equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seungjin, Kim; Mamoru, Ishii

    2004-01-01

    Full text of publication follows:In the current thermal-hydraulic system analysis codes using the two-fluid model, the empirical correlations that are based on the two-phase flow regimes and regime transition criteria are being employed as closure relations for the interfacial transfer terms. Due to its inherent shortcomings, however, such static correlations are inaccurate and present serious problems in the numerical analysis. In view of this, a new dynamic approach employing the interfacial area transport equation has been studied. The interfacial area transport equation dynamically models the two-phase flow regime transitions and predicts continuous change of the interfacial area concentration along the flow field. Hence, when employed in the thermal-hydraulic system analysis codes, it eliminates artificial bifurcations stemming from the use of the static flow regime transition criteria. Therefore, the interfacial area transport equation can make a leapfrog improvement in the current capability of the two-fluid model from both scientific and practical point of view. Accounting for the substantial differences in the transport phenomena of various sizes of bubbles, the two-group interfacial area transport equations have been developed. The group 1 equation describes the transport of small-dispersed bubbles that are either distorted or spherical in shapes, and the group 2 equation describes the transport of large cap, slug or churn-turbulent bubbles. The source and sink terms in the right hand-side of the transport equations have been established by mechanistically modeling the creation and destruction of bubbles due to major bubble interaction mechanisms. The coalescence mechanisms include the random collision driven by turbulence, and the entrainment of trailing bubbles in the wake region of the preceding bubble. The disintegration mechanisms include the break-up by turbulence impact, shearing-off at the rim of large cap bubbles and the break-up of large cap

  1. Gas Hydrate Petroleum System Modeling in western Nankai Trough Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, M.; Aung, T. T.; Fujii, T.; Wada, N.; Komatsu, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Since 2003, we have been conducting Gas Hydrate (GH) petroleum system models covering the eastern Nankai Trough, Japan, and results of resource potential from regional model shows good match with the value depicted from seismic and log data. In this year, we have applied this method to explore GH potential in study area. In our study area, GH prospects have been identified with aid of bottom simulating reflector (BSR) and presence of high velocity anomalies above the BSR interpreted based on 3D migration seismic and high density velocity cubes. In order to understand the pathway of biogenic methane from source to GH prospects 1D-2D-3D GH petroleum system models are built and investigated. This study comprises lower Miocene to Pleistocene, deep to shallow marine sedimentary successions of Pliocene and Pleistocene layers overlain the basement. The BSR were interpreted in Pliocene and Pleistocene layers. Based on 6 interpreted sequence boundaries from 3D migration seismic and velocity data, construction of a depth 3D framework model is made and distributed by a conceptual submarine fan depositional facies model derived from seismic facies analysis and referring existing geological report. 1D models are created to analyze lithology sensitivity to temperature and vitrinite data from an exploratory well drilled in the vicinity of study area. The PSM parameters are applied in 2D and 3D modeling and simulation. Existing report of the explanatory well reveals that thermogenic origin are considered to exist. For this reason, simulation scenarios including source formations for both biogenic and thermogenic reaction models are also investigated. Simulation results reveal lower boundary of GH saturation zone at pseudo wells has been simulated with sensitivity of a few tens of meters in comparing with interpreted BSR. From sensitivity analysis, simulated temperature was controlled by different peak generation temperature models and geochemical parameters. Progressive folding

  2. Dynamic modeling of interfacial structures via interfacial area transport equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seungjin, Kim; Mamoru, Ishii

    2005-01-01

    The interfacial area transport equation dynamically models the two-phase flow regime transitions and predicts continuous change of the interfacial area concentration along the flow field. Hence, when employed in the numerical thermal-hydraulic system analysis codes, it eliminates artificial bifurcations stemming from the use of the static flow regime transition criteria. Accounting for the substantial differences in the transport phenomena of various sizes of bubbles, the two-group interfacial area transport equations have been developed. The group 1 equation describes the transport of small-dispersed bubbles that are either distorted or spherical in shapes, and the group 2 equation describes the transport of large cap, slug or churn-turbulent bubbles. The source and sink terms in the right-hand-side of the transport equations have been established by mechanistically modeling the creation and destruction of bubbles due to major bubble interaction mechanisms. In the present paper, the interfacial area transport equations currently available are reviewed to address the feasibility and reliability of the model along with extensive experimental results. These include the data from adiabatic upward air-water two-phase flow in round tubes of various sizes, from a rectangular duct, and from adiabatic co-current downward air-water two-phase flow in round pipes of two sizes. (authors)

  3. A Unified Model for BDS Wide Area and Local Area Augmentation Positioning Based on Raw Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Tu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a unified model for BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS wide area and local area augmentation positioning based on raw observations has been proposed. Applying this model, both the Real-Time Kinematic (RTK and Precise Point Positioning (PPP service can be realized by performing different corrections at the user end. This algorithm was assessed and validated with the BDS data collected at four regional stations from Day of Year (DOY 080 to 083 of 2016. When the users are located within the local reference network, the fast and high precision RTK service can be achieved using the regional observation corrections, revealing a convergence time of about several seconds and a precision of about 2–3 cm. For the users out of the regional reference network, the global broadcast State-Space Represented (SSR corrections can be utilized to realize the global PPP service which shows a convergence time of about 25 min for achieving an accuracy of 10 cm. With this unified model, it can not only integrate the Network RTK (NRTK and PPP into a seamless positioning service, but also recover the ionosphere Vertical Total Electronic Content (VTEC and Differential Code Bias (DCB values that are useful for the ionosphere monitoring and modeling.

  4. Structural equation models of VMT growth in US urbanised areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Reid; Hamidi, Shima; Gallivan, Frank; Nelson, Arthur C.; Grace, James B.

    2014-01-01

    Vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is a primary performance indicator for land use and transportation, bringing with it both positive and negative externalities. This study updates and refines previous work on VMT in urbanised areas, using recent data, additional metrics and structural equation modelling (SEM). In a cross-sectional model for 2010, population, income and freeway capacity are positively related to VMT, while gasoline prices, development density and transit service levels are negatively related. Findings of the cross-sectional model are generally confirmed in a more tightly controlled longitudinal study of changes in VMT between 2000 and 2010, the first model of its kind. The cross-sectional and longitudinal models together, plus the transportation literature generally, give us a basis for generalising across studies to arrive at elasticity values of VMT with respect to different urban variables.

  5. Travel Models for Corridors of Metropolitan Areas Served by Railways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brzeziński A.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent years adverse processes of suburbanization have been observed in cities. It has become a serious challenge for urban and transport planners, as it influences largely the quality of space, the quality of life, and the cost of running the city. This paper is dedicated to travel models in areas serviced by a railway system, and is based on a real-life survey example of the Błonie community, a district belonging to the Warsaw metropolitan area. Research carried out in 2014 focused on combined travels behaviors recorded using GPS locators as well as quantitative research (volumes of users across various transport systems.

  6. Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

    2016-02-01

    We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for

  7. Escompte Pre-modelling Studies In The Marseille Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meleux, F.; Rosset, R.

    On June and July 2001, the campaign ESCOMPTE took place in the Marseille area in southern of France, with the aim of generating a detailed 3-D data base for the study of dynamics and chemistry of high pollution events so as to validate and improve air quality models. Previous to this field experiment, a pre-modelling exercise has been performed to document the dynamic interactions between sea and land breezes and orographics flows over this complex topographical area. This study was carried out using a nesting procedure at local and regional scales using the MESO-NH model (jointly developed by Laboratoire d'Aérologie and Meteofrance at Toulouse). Tracers emitted at various locations in the Marseille and Etang de Berre areas were first fol- lowed, then in a second step, full chemistry simulations have been run for two selected periods on June and July 1999, quite similar to the meteorological situations met dur- ing the IOP2a and the IOP4 in the 2001 campaign. The performance of the model has been assessed by comparing measured data with simulated data for meteorological pa- rameters and ozone. The general ability of the model to correctly simulate these two situations allows to further study ozone plume developments in more details. In par- ticular, these studies bear upon the relative roles of O3 transport versus O3 chemical production, as a function of distance within the plume to anthropogenic emissions and biogenic emissions, together with ozone daily variations and peak values observed at rural sites.

  8. Conceptual Modeling Framework for E-Area PA HELP Infiltration Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dyer, J. A. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-11-30

    A conceptual modeling framework based on the proposed E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) closure cap design is presented for conducting Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model simulations of intact and subsided cap infiltration scenarios for the next E-Area Performance Assessment (PA).

  9. Model-Driven Approach for Body Area Network Application Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venčkauskas, Algimantas; Štuikys, Vytautas; Jusas, Nerijus; Burbaitė, Renata

    2016-05-12

    This paper introduces the sensor-networked IoT model as a prototype to support the design of Body Area Network (BAN) applications for healthcare. Using the model, we analyze the synergistic effect of the functional requirements (data collection from the human body and transferring it to the top level) and non-functional requirements (trade-offs between energy-security-environmental factors, treated as Quality-of-Service (QoS)). We use feature models to represent the requirements at the earliest stage for the analysis and describe a model-driven methodology to design the possible BAN applications. Firstly, we specify the requirements as the problem domain (PD) variability model for the BAN applications. Next, we introduce the generative technology (meta-programming as the solution domain (SD)) and the mapping procedure to map the PD feature-based variability model onto the SD feature model. Finally, we create an executable meta-specification that represents the BAN functionality to describe the variability of the problem domain though transformations. The meta-specification (along with the meta-language processor) is a software generator for multiple BAN-oriented applications. We validate the methodology with experiments and a case study to generate a family of programs for the BAN sensor controllers. This enables to obtain the adequate measure of QoS efficiently through the interactive adjustment of the meta-parameter values and re-generation process for the concrete BAN application.

  10. Model-Driven Approach for Body Area Network Application Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venčkauskas, Algimantas; Štuikys, Vytautas; Jusas, Nerijus; Burbaitė, Renata

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the sensor-networked IoT model as a prototype to support the design of Body Area Network (BAN) applications for healthcare. Using the model, we analyze the synergistic effect of the functional requirements (data collection from the human body and transferring it to the top level) and non-functional requirements (trade-offs between energy-security-environmental factors, treated as Quality-of-Service (QoS)). We use feature models to represent the requirements at the earliest stage for the analysis and describe a model-driven methodology to design the possible BAN applications. Firstly, we specify the requirements as the problem domain (PD) variability model for the BAN applications. Next, we introduce the generative technology (meta-programming as the solution domain (SD)) and the mapping procedure to map the PD feature-based variability model onto the SD feature model. Finally, we create an executable meta-specification that represents the BAN functionality to describe the variability of the problem domain though transformations. The meta-specification (along with the meta-language processor) is a software generator for multiple BAN-oriented applications. We validate the methodology with experiments and a case study to generate a family of programs for the BAN sensor controllers. This enables to obtain the adequate measure of QoS efficiently through the interactive adjustment of the meta-parameter values and re-generation process for the concrete BAN application. PMID:27187394

  11. Model-Driven Approach for Body Area Network Application Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Algimantas Venčkauskas

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the sensor-networked IoT model as a prototype to support the design of Body Area Network (BAN applications for healthcare. Using the model, we analyze the synergistic effect of the functional requirements (data collection from the human body and transferring it to the top level and non-functional requirements (trade-offs between energy-security-environmental factors, treated as Quality-of-Service (QoS. We use feature models to represent the requirements at the earliest stage for the analysis and describe a model-driven methodology to design the possible BAN applications. Firstly, we specify the requirements as the problem domain (PD variability model for the BAN applications. Next, we introduce the generative technology (meta-programming as the solution domain (SD and the mapping procedure to map the PD feature-based variability model onto the SD feature model. Finally, we create an executable meta-specification that represents the BAN functionality to describe the variability of the problem domain though transformations. The meta-specification (along with the meta-language processor is a software generator for multiple BAN-oriented applications. We validate the methodology with experiments and a case study to generate a family of programs for the BAN sensor controllers. This enables to obtain the adequate measure of QoS efficiently through the interactive adjustment of the meta-parameter values and re-generation process for the concrete BAN application.

  12. Geological model of the ONKALO area version 0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paananen, M.; Paulamaeki, S.; Gehoer, S.; Kaerki, A.

    2006-03-01

    The geological model of the ONKALO area is composed of four submodels: ductile deformation model, lithological model, brittle deformation model and alteration model. The ductile deformation model describes and models the products of polyphase ductile deformation, which facilitates the definition of dimensions and geometrical properties of individual lithological units determined in the lithological model. The lithological model describes the properties of rock units that can be defined on the basis the migmatite structures, textures and modal compositions. The brittle deformation model describes the products of multiple phases of brittle deformation, and the alteration model describes the types, occurrence and the effects of the hydrothermal alteration. On the basis of refolding and crosscutting relationships, the metamorphic supracrustal rocks have been subject to five stages of ductile deformation. This resulted in a pervasive, composite foliation which shows a rather constant attitude in the ONKALO area. Based on observations in outcrops, investigation trenches and drill cores, 3D modelling of the lithological units is carried out assuming that the contacts are quasiconcordant. Using this assumption, the strike and dip of the foliation has been used as a tool to correlate the lithologies between the drillholes, and from surface and tunnel outcrops to drillholes. Consequently, the strike and dip of the foliation has been used as a tool, through which the lithologies have been correlated between the drillholes and from surface to drillholes. The rocks at Olkiluoto can be divided into two major groups: (1) supracrustal high-grade metamorphic rocks including various migmatitic gneisses, homogeneous tonaliticgranodioritic- granitic gneisses, mica gneisses and quartzitic gneisses, and mafic gneisses, (2) igneous rocks, including pegmatitic granites and diabase dykes. The migmatitic gneisses can further be divided into three subgroups in terms of the type of migmatite

  13. Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, A.; Moore, J.C.; Cui, Xingquan; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

    2016-01-01

     We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135  ×  104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101  × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128  ×  104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future

  14. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2006-01-01

    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  15. Fundamental study on interfacial area transport model (I) (contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishima, Kaichiro; Nakamura, Hideo

    2001-03-01

    Recently, improvement in the best-estimate (BE) code predictive capability is attempted by incorporating the interfacial area transport model (IATM) into a one-dimensional two-fluid model to represent gas-liquid two-phase flows in detail with less uncertainty in the flow predictions. Internationally, the nuclear regulatory commission (NRC) and Purdue University in the U.S.A. and CEA in France have promoted the renewal of their BE codes such as TRAC, RELAP5 and CATHARE, by introducing the IATM in cooperative manner. In Japan, JAERI is underway to develop a one-dimensional code based primarily on the IATM against the licensing procedures of next-generation nuclear reactors. The IATM has a possibility to correctly predict flow transient along flow path for such flows as developing flows, multi-dimensional flows, transitional flows, boiling flows, which are difficult to accurately predict by the two-fluid models employed in the current BE codes. The newly developed code with the IATM would dramatically improve the accuracy in the flow prediction. The model, however, is under development and needs great effort to overcome many difficulties with plenty of theoretical considerations based on much of data bases to be acquired further. This study attempts to measure interfacial area in air-water two-phase flows in a large-diameter tube to understand the characteristic of multi-dimensional flows that usually appear in large-diameter tube flows, and provide data bases, to contribute the development of the IATM. The results obtained by such institutes as Purdue University and CEA France were reviewed first. Clarified are the current status and problems of the IATM, basics and practical methods to measure the interfacial area using multi-sensor miniature local probes; metal needle electro-resistance probe and fiber-optic probe. It was found that the applicability of the IATM is limited mostly to a one-dimensional bubbly flow, and is far from satisfactory for multi

  16. Geochemical Modeling Of F Area Seepage Basin Composition And Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millings, M.; Denham, M.; Looney, B.

    2012-01-01

    From the 1950s through 1989, the F Area Seepage Basins at the Savannah River Site (SRS) received low level radioactive wastes resulting from processing nuclear materials. Discharges of process wastes to the F Area Seepage Basins followed by subsequent mixing processes within the basins and eventual infiltration into the subsurface resulted in contamination of the underlying vadose zone and downgradient groundwater. For simulating contaminant behavior and subsurface transport, a quantitative understanding of the interrelated discharge-mixing-infiltration system along with the resulting chemistry of fluids entering the subsurface is needed. An example of this need emerged as the F Area Seepage Basins was selected as a key case study demonstration site for the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM) Program. This modeling evaluation explored the importance of the wide variability in bulk wastewater chemistry as it propagated through the basins. The results are intended to generally improve and refine the conceptualization of infiltration of chemical wastes from seepage basins receiving variable waste streams and to specifically support the ASCEM case study model for the F Area Seepage Basins. Specific goals of this work included: (1) develop a technically-based 'charge-balanced' nominal source term chemistry for water infiltrating into the subsurface during basin operations, (2) estimate the nature of short term and long term variability in infiltrating water to support scenario development for uncertainty quantification (i.e., UQ analysis), (3) identify key geochemical factors that control overall basin water chemistry and the projected variability/stability, and (4) link wastewater chemistry to the subsurface based on monitoring well data. Results from this study provide data and understanding that can be used in further modeling efforts of the F Area groundwater plume. As identified in this study, key geochemical factors affecting basin

  17. The Estimation Modelling of Damaged Areas by Harmful Animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, R.; Sung, M.; Hwang, J.; Jeon, S. W.

    2017-12-01

    The Republic of Korea has undergone rapid development and urban development without sufficient consideration of the environment. This type of growth is accompanied by a reduction in forest area and wildlife habitat. It is a phenomenon that affects the habitat of large mammals more than small. Especially in Korea, the damage caused by wild boar(Sus scrofa) is harsher than other large mammalian species like water deer(Hydropotes inermis), which also means that the number of these reported cases of this species is higher than ones of other mammals. Wild boar has three to eight cubs per year and it is possible to breed every year, which makes it more populous comparing with the fragmented habitats. It could be regarded as one of the top predators in Korea, which it is inevitable for humans to intervene this creature in population control. In addition, some individuals have been forced to be retreated from other habitats in major habitats, or to invade human activity areas for food activity, thereby destroying crops. Ultimately, this mammal species has been treated as farm pest animals through committing road kills and urban emergences. In this study, we has estimated possible farm pest animal present points from the damage district using 2,505 hazardous wildlife damage areas with four types of geological informations, four kinds of forest information, land cover, and distribution of farmland occurred in Gyeongnam province in Korea. In the estimating model, utilizing MAXENT, information of background point was set to 10,000, 70% of the damaged sites were used to construct the model, 30% was used for verification, and 10 times of crossvalidate were proceeded - verified by AUC of ROC. As a result of analyses, AUC was 0.847, and the percent contribution of the forest information was the distance toward inner-forest areas, 36.1%, the land cover, 16.5%, the distance from the field, 14.9%. Furthermore, the permutation importance was 24.9% of the cover, 12.3% of the height

  18. Groundwater Flow Model of the General Separations Area Using PORFLOW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FLACH, GREGORY

    2004-01-01

    The E Area PA (McDowell-Boyer et al. 2000) includes a steady-state simulation of groundwater flow in the General Separations Area as a prerequisite for saturated zone contaminant transport analyses. The groundwater flow simulations are based on the FACT code (Hamm and Aleman2000). The FACT-based GSA model was selected during preparation of the original PA to take advantage of an existing model developed for environmental restoration applications at the SRS (Flach and Harris 1997, 1999; Flach 1999). The existing GSA/FACT model was then slightly modified for PA use, as described in the PA document. FACT is a finite-element code utilizing deformed brick elements. Material properties are defined at element centers, and state variables such as hydraulic head are located at element vertices. The PORFLOW code (Analytic and Computational Research, Inc. 2000) was selected for performing saturated zone transport simulations of source zone radionuclides and their progeny. PORFLOW utilizes control volume discretization and the nodal point integration method, with all properties and state variables being defined at the center of an interior grid cell. The groundwater flow calculation includes translating the Darcy velocity field computed by FACT into a form compatible for input to PORFLOW. The FACT velocity field is defined at element vertices, whereas PORFLOW requires flux across cell faces. For the present PA, PORFLOW cell face flux is computed in a two-step process. An initial face flux is computed from FACT as an average of the normal components of Darcy velocity at the four corners. The derived flux field approximately conserves mass, but not rigorously. Thus, the flux field is subsequently perturbed to force rigorous mass conservation on a cell-by-cell basis. The undocumented process used is non-unique and can introduce significant artifacts into the final flux field

  19. Assessing Groundwater Model Uncertainty for the Central Nevada Test Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohll, Greg; Pohlmann, Karl; Hassan, Ahmed; Chapman, Jenny; Mihevc, Todd

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to quantify the flow and transport model uncertainty for the Central Nevada Test Area (CNTA). Six parameters were identified as uncertain, including the specified head boundary conditions used in the flow model, the spatial distribution of the underlying welded tuff unit, effective porosity, sorption coefficients, matrix diffusion coefficient, and the geochemical release function which describes nuclear glass dissolution. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior statistical distributions for each of these parameters. Standard Monte Carlo techniques were used to sample from the parameter distributions to determine the full prediction uncertainty. Additional analysis is performed to determine the most cost-beneficial characterization activities. The maximum radius of the tritium and strontium-90 contaminant boundary was used as the output metric for evaluation of prediction uncertainty. The results indicate that combining all of the uncertainty in the parameters listed above propagates to a prediction uncertainty in the maximum radius of the contaminant boundary of 234 to 308 m and 234 to 302 m, for tritium and strontium-90, respectively. Although the uncertainty in the input parameters is large, the prediction uncertainty in the contaminant boundary is relatively small. The relatively small prediction uncertainty is primarily due to the small transport velocities such that large changes in the uncertain input parameters causes small changes in the contaminant boundary. This suggests that the model is suitable in terms of predictive capability for the contaminant boundary delineation

  20. Small Area Model-Based Estimators Using Big Data Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marchetti Stefano

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The timely, accurate monitoring of social indicators, such as poverty or inequality, on a finegrained spatial and temporal scale is a crucial tool for understanding social phenomena and policymaking, but poses a great challenge to official statistics. This article argues that an interdisciplinary approach, combining the body of statistical research in small area estimation with the body of research in social data mining based on Big Data, can provide novel means to tackle this problem successfully. Big Data derived from the digital crumbs that humans leave behind in their daily activities are in fact providing ever more accurate proxies of social life. Social data mining from these data, coupled with advanced model-based techniques for fine-grained estimates, have the potential to provide a novel microscope through which to view and understand social complexity. This article suggests three ways to use Big Data together with small area estimation techniques, and shows how Big Data has the potential to mirror aspects of well-being and other socioeconomic phenomena.

  1. Modelling Local Attitudes to Protected Areas in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Bragagnolo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During a time of intensifying competition for land, Protected Areas (PAs are coming under increasing pressure to justify their status. Positive local attitudes to a PA are a potentially important component of any such justification, especially in the developing world where human pressure on natural resources is often high. However, despite numerous studies our understanding of what drives positive attitudes to PAs is still exceedingly limited. Here, we review the literature on local attitudes towards PAs in developing countries. Our survey reveals a highly fragmented research area where studies typically lack an explicit conceptual basis, and where there is wide variation in choice of statistical approach, explanatory and response variables, and incorporation of contextual information. Nevertheless, there is a relatively high degree of concordance between studies, with certain variables showing strong associations with attitudes. We recommend that PA attitude researchers in developing countries adopt a more rigorous model building approach based on a clear conceptual framework and drawing on the extensive empirical literature. Such an approach would improve the quality of research, increase comparability, and provide a stronger basis to support conservation decision-making.

  2. MODELING OF OIL POLLUTION OF ARTIC SEA COASTAL AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article studies the elastic filtration oil drive of oil in a layer based on the estimation of risks of environmental oil pollution because of accidental releases. The model of oil spillage and resorption by the precoat is based on continuity equation and Darcy rule as well as on equations of state taking into account fluid compressibility due to pressure. Filtering area is a line between the precoat and air. Oil filtering area is limited by soil surface below and by free surface above, its equation is known beforehand and is to be defined. The case of soil pollution from the point source, which is the point of fracture of pipeline or borehole, is considered. Upper and approximate estimates of the oil pollution radius due to different types of underlying terrains and to oil characteristics as well as to environmental conditions. The dynamics of oil free sur- face depending on spillage radii is calculated and presented. The estimates of temporary duration of oil filtering by the pre- coat in terms of light ends and soil type are made. The thickness of the oil film and the square of the spill upon condition of constant speed of oil spillage, horizontal position of underlying terrain and the proximity of pressure to normal are deter- mined. For the numerical implementation of the model different cases of oil spillage were considered. Under given values of air temperature, soil porosity and filtration speed the pollution radii according to light end, the time from the moment of accident till the leakage suppression and the speed of oil spillage was calculated.

  3. Leaf area prediction models for Tsuga canadensis in Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura S. Kenefic; R.S. Seymour

    1999-01-01

    Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. (eastern hemlock) is a common species throughout the Acadian forest. Studies of leaf area and growth efficiency in this forest type have been limited by the lack of equations to predict leaf area of this species. We found that sapwood area was an effective leaf area surrogate in T. canadensis, though...

  4. Process Modeling and Validation for Metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simunovic, Srdjan [ORNL; Nycz, Andrzej [ORNL; Noakes, Mark W. [ORNL; Chin, Charlie [Dassault Systemes; Oancea, Victor [Dassault Systemes

    2017-05-01

    Metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing (mBAAM) is a new additive manufacturing (AM) technology based on the metal arc welding. A continuously fed metal wire is melted by an electric arc that forms between the wire and the substrate, and deposited in the form of a bead of molten metal along the predetermined path. Objects are manufactured one layer at a time starting from the base plate. The final properties of the manufactured object are dependent on its geometry and the metal deposition path, in addition to depending on the basic welding process parameters. Computational modeling can be used to accelerate the development of the mBAAM technology as well as a design and optimization tool for the actual manufacturing process. We have developed a finite element method simulation framework for mBAAM using the new features of software ABAQUS. The computational simulation of material deposition with heat transfer is performed first, followed by the structural analysis based on the temperature history for predicting the final deformation and stress state. In this formulation, we assume that two physics phenomena are coupled in only one direction, i.e. the temperatures are driving the deformation and internal stresses, but their feedback on the temperatures is negligible. The experiment instrumentation (measurement types, sensor types, sensor locations, sensor placements, measurement intervals) and the measurements are presented. The temperatures and distortions from the simulations show good correlation with experimental measurements. Ongoing modeling work is also briefly discussed.

  5. Micro-meteorological modelling in urban areas: pollutant dispersion and radiative effects modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milliez, Maya

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric pollution and urban climate studies require to take into account the complex processes due to heterogeneity of urban areas and the interaction with the buildings. In order to estimate the impact of buildings on flow and pollutant dispersion, detailed numerical simulations were performed over an idealized urban area, with the three-dimensional model Mercure-Saturne, modelling both concentration means and their fluctuations. To take into account atmospheric radiation in built up areas and the thermal effects of the buildings, we implemented a three-dimensional radiative model adapted to complex geometry. This model, adapted from a scheme used for thermal radiation, solves the radiative transfer equation in a semi-transparent media, using the discrete ordinate method. The new scheme was validated with idealized cases and compared to a complete case. (author) [fr

  6. High resolution modelling of extreme precipitation events in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemerink, Martijn; Volp, Nicolette; Schuurmans, Wytze; Deckers, Dave

    2015-04-01

    significant soil consolidation and the low-lying areas are prone to urban flooding. The simulation results are compared with measurements in the sewer network. References [1] Guus S. Stelling G.S., 2012. Quadtree flood simulations with subgrid digital elevation models. Water Management 165 (WM1):1329-1354. [2] Vincenzo Cassuli and Guus S. Stelling, 2013. A semi-implicit numerical model for urban drainage systems. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids. Vol. 73:600-614. DOI: 10.1002/fld.3817

  7. Measured and modeled dry deposition velocities over the ESCOMPTE area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michou, M.; Laville, P.; Serça, D.; Fotiadi, A.; Bouchou, P.; Peuch, V.-H.

    2005-03-01

    Measurements of the dry deposition velocity of ozone have been made by the eddy correlation method during ESCOMPTE (Etude sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphérique et de Transport d'Emissions). The strong local variability of natural ecosystems was sampled over several weeks in May, June and July 2001 for four sites with varying surface characteristics. The sites included a maize field, a Mediterranean forest, a Mediterranean shrub-land, and an almost bare soil. Measurements of nitrogen oxide deposition fluxes by the relaxed eddy correlation method have also been carried out at the same bare soil site. An evaluation of the deposition velocities computed by the surface module of the multi-scale Chemistry and Transport Model MOCAGE is presented. This module relies on a resistance approach, with a detailed treatment of the stomatal contribution to the surface resistance. Simulations at the finest model horizontal resolution (around 10 km) are compared to observations. If the seasonal variations are in agreement with the literature, comparisons between raw model outputs and observations, at the different measurement sites and for the specific observing periods, are contrasted. As the simulated meteorology at the scale of 10 km nicely captures the observed situations, the default set of surface characteristics (averaged at the resolution of a grid cell) appears to be one of the main reasons for the discrepancies found with observations. For each case, sensitivity studies have been performed in order to see the impact of adjusting the surface characteristics to the observed ones, when available. Generally, a correct agreement with the observations of deposition velocities is obtained. This advocates for a sub-grid scale representation of surface characteristics for the simulation of dry deposition velocities over such a complex area. Two other aspects appear in the discussion. Firstly, the strong influence of the soil water content to the plant

  8. Morphodynamics of Wadden Sea Areas – Field Measurements and Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Albers

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Wadden Sea areas of the German North Sea coast are affected by intense morphodynamics. Especially in the mouths of the estuaries sedimentation and erosion occur on different temporal and spatial scales and therefore challenge the decision-makers. To satisfy the requirements, which modern maritime traffic demands, a sustainable concept for sediment management has to be developed to grant an economic and ecologic balanced system. To evaluate different actions and their effects, e.g. by means of numerical models, an improved knowledge of morphodynamic processes on tidal flats is required. The Institute of River and Coastal Engineering at the Hamburg University of Technology runs detailed measurements to collect hydrodynamic and morphodynamic data of tidal flats in the estuary Elbe, that is the approach to the port of Hamburg. Water levels, flow and wave parameters and concentrations of suspended sediments are recorded in high resolution. Furthermore, the bathymetry is determined in frequent intervals with a multi-beam echo sounder.

  9. Groundwater Pathway Model for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Technical Area 21, Material Disposal Area T

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, Philip H. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Levitt, Daniel G. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Miller, Terry Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Jordan, Amy [Neptune Inc, Los Alamos, NM (United States); Chu, Shaoping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dash, Zora [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-02-09

    This report consists of four major sections, including this introductory section. Section 2 provides an overview of previous investigations related to the development of the current sitescale model. The methods and data used to develop the 3-D groundwater model and the techniques used to distill that model into a form suitable for use in the GoldSim models are discussed in Section 3. Section 4 presents the results of the model development effort and discusses some of the uncertainties involved. Three attachments that provide details about the components and data used in this groundwater pathway model are also included with this report.

  10. Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

    2013-01-01

    the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...

  11. Stand basal area model for Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    When evaluating the predictive accuracy of the final model, the first measurement was used for estimation of random parameters. The Chapman–Richards model was finally selected for the basic model based on model-fitting statistics, and both the fitting model and validation data with site-, block- and plot-level random ...

  12. Analysis the Accuracy of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for Flood Modelling on Lowland Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainol Abidin, Ku Hasna Zainurin Ku; Razi, Mohd Adib Mohammad; Bukari, Saifullizan Mohd

    2018-04-01

    Flood is one type of natural disaster that occurs almost every year in Malaysia. Commonly the lowland areas are the worst affected areas. This kind of disaster is controllable by using an accurate data for proposing any kinds of solutions. Elevation data is one of the data used to produce solutions for flooding. Currently, the research about the application of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in hydrology was increased where this kind of model will identify the elevation for required areas. University of Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia is one of the lowland areas which facing flood problems on 2006. Therefore, this area was chosen in order to produce DEM which focussed on University Health Centre (PKU) and drainage area around Civil and Environment Faculty (FKAAS). Unmanned Aerial Vehicle used to collect aerial photos data then undergoes a process of generating DEM according to three types of accuracy and quality from Agisoft PhotoScan software. The higher the level of accuracy and quality of DEM produced, the longer time taken to generate a DEM. The reading of the errors created while producing the DEM shows almost 0.01 different. Therefore, it has been identified there are some important parameters which influenced the accuracy of DEM.

  13. Synergy of modeling processes in the area of soft and hard modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sika Robert

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available High complexity of production processes results in more frequent use of computer systems for their modeling and simulation. Process modeling helps to find optimal solution, verify some assumptions before implementation and eliminate errors. In practice, modeling of production processes concerns two areas: hard modeling (based on differential equations of mathematical physics and soft (based on existing data. In the paper the possibility of synergistic connection of these two approaches was indicated: it means hard modeling support based on the tools used in soft modeling. It aims at significant reducing the time in order to obtain final results with the use of hard modeling. Some test were carried out in the Calibrate module of NovaFlow&Solid (NF&S simulation system in the frame of thermal analysis (ATAS-cup. The authors tested output values forecasting in NF&S system (solidification time on the basis of variable parameters of the thermal model (heat conduction, specific heat, density. Collected data was used as an input to prepare soft model with the use of MLP (Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network regression model. The approach described above enable to reduce the time of production process modeling with use of hard modeling and should encourage production companies to use it.

  14. Pathloss Modelling of less dense urban area in Lagos State using Lee Model

    OpenAIRE

    O. Shoewu

    2017-01-01

    In this study we aim to adopt a propagation model for a less dense urban area in Lagos state by examining one of the popular empirical path loss models for mobile communication. Lee’s model was compared with measured path loss obtain from the field measurement at GSM frequency of 900 MHz . TEMS Investigation tool was used for the drive test. The measurements of the received signal strength were collected through drive test with the aid of an Ericson test mobile system (TEMS). This was conduct...

  15. Modelling of Malaria Risk Areas in Ghana by using Environmental ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2015-12-02

    Dec 2, 2015 ... control in time and space to be prepared for outbreaks, which ... developing dynamic and area-specific risk maps to ... disease outbreaks including vaccination (Haydon et ... analyse malaria data against certain environmental.

  16. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  17. User's guide to the LIRAQ model: an air pollution model for the San Francisco Bay Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCracken, M.C.

    1975-01-01

    The Livermore Regional Air Quality (LIRAQ) model comprises a set of computer programs that have been integrated into an easily used tool for the air quality planner. To assemble and modify the necessary data files and to direct model execution, a problem formulation program has been developed that makes possible the setup of a wide variety of studies involving perturbation of the emission inventory, changes to the initial and boundary conditions, and different choices of grid size and problem domain. In addition to describing the types of air quality problems for which the LIRAQ model may be used, this User's Guide provides detailed information on how to set up and conduct model simulations. Also included are descriptions of the formats of input data files so that the LIRAQ model may be applied to regions other than the San Francisco Bay Area

  18. Mathematical modelling of air-flow in geometrically complicated areas

    OpenAIRE

    Fuka, Vladimír

    2014-01-01

    The Charles University Large-eddy Microscale Model (CLMM) and its application are presented. It is a numerical model for simulation of turbulent flow and dispersion in the planetary boundary layer. CLMM solves the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in the Boussinesq approximation and describes turbulence using the large eddy simulation. Three applications of the model are presented. In the first case, the model is applied to the stable boundary layer over a flat terrain. The second case p...

  19. Use of models in large-area forest surveys: comparing model-assisted, model-based and hybrid estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goran Stahl; Svetlana Saarela; Sebastian Schnell; Soren Holm; Johannes Breidenbach; Sean P. Healey; Paul L. Patterson; Steen Magnussen; Erik Naesset; Ronald E. McRoberts; Timothy G. Gregoire

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where...

  20. User Delay Cost Model and Facilities Maintenance Cost Model for a Terminal Control Area : Volume 1. Model Formulation and Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-05-01

    The User Delay Cost Model (UDCM) is a Monte Carlo computer simulation of essential aspects of Terminal Control Area (TCA) air traffic movements that would be affected by facility outages. The model can also evaluate delay effects due to other factors...

  1. Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

    2014-05-01

    Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem

  2. Agrochemical fate models applied in agricultural areas from Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Santos, Glenda; Yang, Jing; Andreoli, Romano; Binder, Claudia

    2010-05-01

    The misuse application of pesticides in mainly agricultural catchments can lead to severe problems for humans and environment. Especially in developing countries where there is often found overuse of agrochemicals and incipient or lack of water quality monitoring at local and regional levels, models are needed for decision making and hot spots identification. However, the complexity of the water cycle contrasts strongly with the scarce data availability, limiting the number of analysis, techniques, and models available to researchers. Therefore there is a strong need for model simplification able to appropriate model complexity and still represent the processes. We have developed a new model so-called Westpa-Pest to improve water quality management of an agricultural catchment located in the highlands of Colombia. Westpa-Pest is based on the fully distributed hydrologic model Wetspa and a fate pesticide module. We have applied a multi-criteria analysis for model selection under the conditions and data availability found in the region and compared with the new developed Westpa-Pest model. Furthermore, both models were empirically calibrated and validated. The following questions were addressed i) what are the strengths and weaknesses of the models?, ii) which are the most sensitive parameters of each model?, iii) what happens with uncertainties in soil parameters?, and iv) how sensitive are the transfer coefficients?

  3. Radioecological modelling of the biosphere as illustrated by the example of the model area Oberbauenstock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, J.; Fritschi, M.; Schwanner, I.; Resele, G.

    1986-06-01

    The biosphere model is the final link in the chain of radionuclide transport models used for radiation dose calculations for nuclear waste repositories. The dispersion of radionuclides from a low and intermediate level waste repository in the biosphere and their uptake by man through food pathways is investigated with a compartment model. The relevant biosphere parameters were based on the model site at Oberbauenstock and compiled as a model data set for further use in the biosphere modelling. Nuclide concentrations in the biosphere compartments and foodstuffs as well as annual individual radiation doses are calculated with the computer program BIOSPH. The present report contains a description of the model area and its subdivision into 4 compartments, a compilation of the relevant parameters and the simplifying assumptions that have been made, discussion of mathematical modelling of nuclide transport in the biosphere and of the calculation of the individual radiation doses, a technical description of the computer program BIOSPH and a detailed presentation of the results from the model calculations. (author)

  4. SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

  5. inverse gaussian model for small area estimation via gibbs sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADMIN

    For example, MacGibbon and Tomberlin. (1989) have considered estimating small area rates and binomial parameters using empirical Bayes methods. Stroud (1991) used hierarchical Bayes approach for univariate natural exponential families with quadratic variance functions in sample survey applications, while Chaubey ...

  6. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

  7. Logistic regression model for detecting radon prone areas in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elío, J; Crowley, Q; Scanlon, R; Hodgson, J; Long, S

    2017-12-01

    A new high spatial resolution radon risk map of Ireland has been developed, based on a combination of indoor radon measurements (n=31,910) and relevant geological information (i.e. Bedrock Geology, Quaternary Geology, soil permeability and aquifer type). Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of having an indoor radon concentration above the national reference level of 200Bqm -3 in Ireland. The four geological datasets evaluated were found to be statistically significant, and, based on combinations of these four variables, the predicted probabilities ranged from 0.57% to 75.5%. Results show that the Republic of Ireland may be divided in three main radon risk categories: High (HR), Medium (MR) and Low (LR). The probability of having an indoor radon concentration above 200Bqm -3 in each area was found to be 19%, 8% and 3%; respectively. In the Republic of Ireland, the population affected by radon concentrations above 200Bqm -3 is estimated at ca. 460k (about 10% of the total population). Of these, 57% (265k), 35% (160k) and 8% (35k) are in High, Medium and Low Risk Areas, respectively. Our results provide a high spatial resolution utility which permit customised radon-awareness information to be targeted at specific geographic areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2005-01-01

    to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  9. Modelling of particulate matter pollution (PM10) over the Etang de Berre area Determination of areas of homogeneous pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brocheton, F.; Poulet, D.; Mesbah, B.; Hourdin, G.

    2010-01-01

    AIRFOBEP is the association in charge of the air quality monitoring in the Etang de Berre area. AIRFOBEP is managing a network of ten sensors to monitor the PMI (particulate matter index) particulate pollution. This network is updated once a year according to the Air Quality Monitoring Plan (PSQA). Optimizing this network needs to know how the particulate pollution is distributed in the area. In other words, to determine the limits of homogeneous zones of PM 10 pollution. The aim of the project presented in this article is to produce a map of homogeneous zones of PM 10 pollution in the Etang de Berre area. The project was carried out in two steps: - PM 10 atmospheric dispersion modeling, using a ADMS-URBAN software, - Statistic classification, based on the well known Hierarchical Ascending Classification (HAC) technique. Results of the atmospheric dispersion modeling was namely adjusted using an original technique for the 'background PM 10 pollution' computation. Good performances have been obtained when comparing modeling and measurements data. Finally, a set of five homogeneous zones was found to well describe the PM 10 pollution level distribution in the Etang de Berre area. (author)

  10. Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; James A. Westfall

    2014-01-01

    Forest inventory estimates of tree volume for large areas are typically calculated by adding model predictions of volumes for individual trees. However, the uncertainty in the model predictions is generally ignored with the result that the precision of the large area volume estimates is overestimated. The primary study objective was to estimate the effects of model...

  11. Integrated urban water management for residential areas: a reuse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, A B; Argue, J R

    2009-01-01

    Global concern over growing urban water demand in the face of limited water resources has focussed attention on the need for better management of available water resources. This paper takes the "fit for purpose" concept and applies it in the development of a model aimed at changing current practices with respect to residential planning by integrating reuse systems into the design layout. This residential reuse model provides an approach to the design of residential developments seeking to maximise water reuse. Water balance modelling is used to assess the extent to which local water resources can satisfy residential demands with conditions based on the city of Adelaide, Australia. Physical conditions include a relatively flat topography and a temperate climate, with annual rainfall being around 500 mm. The level of water-self-sufficiency that may be achieved within a reuse development in this environment is estimated at around 60%. A case study is also presented in which a conventional development is re-designed on the basis of the reuse model. Costing of the two developments indicates the reuse scenario is only marginally more expensive. Such costings however do not include the benefit to upstream and downstream environments resulting from reduced demand and discharges. As governments look to developers to recover system augmentation and environmental costs the economics of such approaches will increase.

  12. Large-area dry bean yield prediction modeling in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given the importance of dry bean in Mexico, crop yield predictions before harvest are valuable for authorities of the agricultural sector, in order to define support for producers. The aim of this study was to develop an empirical model to estimate the yield of dry bean at the regional level prior t...

  13. Engineering modeling of traffic noise in shielded areas in cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomons, Erik M; Polinder, Henk; Lohman, Walter J A; Zhou, Han; Borst, Hieronymous C; Miedema, Henk M E

    2009-11-01

    A computational study of road traffic noise in cities is presented. Based on numerical boundary-element calculations of canyon-to-canyon propagation, an efficient engineering algorithm is developed to calculate the effect of multiple reflections in street canyons. The algorithm is supported by a room-acoustical analysis of the reverberant sound fields in the source and receiver canyons. Using the algorithm, a simple model for traffic noise in cities is developed. Noise maps and exposure distributions of the city of Amsterdam are calculated with the model, and for comparison also with an engineering model that is currently used for traffic noise impact assessments in cities. Considerable differences between the two model predictions are found for shielded buildings with day-evening-night levels of 40-60 dB at the facades. Further, an analysis is presented of level differences between the most and the least exposed facades of buildings. Large level differences are found for buildings directly exposed to traffic noise from nearby roads. It is shown that by a redistribution of traffic flow around these buildings, one can achieve low sound levels at quiet sides and a corresponding reduction in the percentage of highly annoyed inhabitants from typically 23% to 18%.

  14. Integrated catchment modelling in a Semi-arid area

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bugan, Richard DH

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available , will increasingly need water quality and quantity management tools to be able to make informed decisions. Integrated catchment modelling (ICM) is regarded as being a valuable tool for integrated water resource management. It enables officials and scientists to make...

  15. Regional hydrogeological conceptual model of candidate Beishan area for high level radioactive waste disposal repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Hailong; Guo Yonghai

    2014-01-01

    The numerical modeling of groundwater flow is an important aspect of hydrogeological assessment in siting of a high level radioactive waste disposal repository. Hydrogeological conceptual model is the basic and premise of numerical modeling of groundwater flow. Based on the hydrogeological analysis of candidate Beishan area, surface water system was created by using DEM data and the modeling area is determined. Three-dimensional hydrogeological structure model was created through GMS software. On the basis of analysis and description of boundary condition, flow field, groundwater budget and hydrogeological parameters, hydrogeological conceptual model was set up for the Beishan area. (authors)

  16. A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery

    2015-04-01

    The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.

  17. Modeling surface area to volume effects on borosilicate glass dissolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourcier, W.L.; Ebert, W.L.; Feng, X.

    1992-11-01

    We simulated the reaction of SRL-131 glass with equilibrated J-13 water in order to investigate the effects of surface area to volume ratio (SA/V) on glass dissolution. We show that glass-fluid ion exchange causes solution pH to rise to progressively higher values as SA/V increases. Because the ion exchange is rapid relative to the duration of the glass dissolution experiment, the pH effect does not scale with (SA/V)*time. Experiments compared at the same (SA/V)*time value therefore have different pHs, with higher pHs at higher SA/V ratios. Both experimental data and our simulation results show similar trends of increasing reaction rate as a function of SA/V ratio when scaled to (SA/V)*time. Glasses which react in systems of differing SA/V ratio therefore follow different reaction paths and high SA/V ratios cannot be used to generate data which accurately scales to long time periods unless the ion exchange effect is taken into account. We suggest some simple test designs which enable more reliable high. SA/V accelerated tests

  18. A high performance finite element model for wind farm modeling in forested areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Herbert; Avila, Matias; Folch, Arnau; Cosculluela, Luis; Prieto, Luis

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy has grown significantly during the past decade and is expected to continue growing in the fight against climate change. In the search for new land where the impact of the wind turbines is small several wind farms are currently being installed in forested areas. In order to optimize the distribution of the wind turbines within the wind farm the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes equations are solved over the domain of interest using either commercial or in house codes. The existence of a canopy alters the Atmospheric Boundary Layer wind profile close to the ground. Therefore in order to obtain a more accurate representation of the flow in forested areas modification to both the Navier Stokes and turbulence variables equations need to be introduced. Several existing canopy models have been tested in an academic problem showing that the one proposed by Sogachev et. al gives the best results. This model has been implemented in an in house CFD solver named Alya. It is a high performance unstructured finite element code that has been designed from scratch to be able to run in the world's biggest supercomputers. Its scalabililty has recently been tested up to 100000 processors in both American and European supercomputers. During the past three years the code has been tuned and tested for wind energy problems. Recent efforts have focused on the canopy model following industry needs. In this work we shall benchmark our results in a wind farm that is currently being designed by Scottish Power and Iberdrola in Scotland. This is a very interesting real case with extensive experimental data from five different masts with anemometers at several heights. It is used to benchmark both the wind profiles and the speed up obtained between different masts. Sixteen different wind directions are simulated. The numerical model provides very satisfactory results for both the masts that are affected by the canopy and those that are not influenced by it.

  19. Models for dose assessments. Models adapted to the SFR-area, Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Bergstroem, U.; Meili, M.

    2001-10-01

    This report presents a model system created to be used to predict dose rates to the most exposed individuals in case of a long-term release of radionuclides from the Final repository for radioactive operational waste (SFR) in Forsmark, Sweden. The system accounts for an underground point source emitting radionuclides to the biosphere,their transport and distribution in various ecosystem types, their uptake by various biota, and calculation of doses to man from a multitude of exposure pathways. Long-term aspects include the consideration of processes at geological time scales, such as land uplift and conversion of marine sediments to arable land. Model parameters are whenever possible based on local conditions and recent literature. The system has been used for simulations based on geospheric releases varying over time of a mixture of radionuclides. Here, the models have been subjected to various test scenarios, including different radionuclide entry points and sorption properties. Radionuclides released from SFR are efficiently diluted to low concentrations in the water of the coastal model. A large fraction of the nuclides leave the Model Area quickly as a consequence of the rapid water turnover. The total amount of radionuclides in water is about the same independent of particle affinity (K d ), and at most some percents of the amounts retained in the sediments for some time. The latter is also true for the lake model when releases of radionuclides to the water is simulated. The role of sediments as a radionuclide source seems of minor importance in lakes at least for long-term radiation doses. Modelling the sediments as a source of radionuclides most of the 'low K d radionuclides' will leave the lake whereas the 'high K d nuclides' are still present within the deeper sediments after 1 000 years. The amount of 'low K d radionuclides' present in the water and on suspended matter are about 8x10 -5 of the initial inventory in the sediments. For 'high K d nuclides

  20. NOAA ESRI Grid - sediment size predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size predictions from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  1. NOAA ESRI Grid - depth predictions bathymetry model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  2. TEAM-like workshops in related areas: cooperation in modeling for competitive industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, L. R.

    1999-01-01

    The TEAM Workshops originated from problems in fusion research. Based on recent observations regarding automotive modeling, the author asks whether TEAM-like workshops, and the accompanying cooperation among modelers, are of value in areas of economic competition

  3. PEMODELAN DAERAH TANGKAPAN AIR WADUK KELILING DENGAN MODEL SWAT (Keliling Reservoir Catchment Area Modeling Using SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teuku Ferijal

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to model watershed area of Keliling Reservoir using SWAT model. The reservoir is located in Aceh Besar District, Province of Aceh. The model was setup using 90m x 90m digital elevation model, land use data extracted from remote sensing data and soil characteristic obtained from laboratory analysis on soil samples. Model was calibrated using observed daily reservoir volume and the model performance was analyzed using RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE and percent bias (PBIAS. The model delineated the study area into 3,448 Ha having 13 subwatersheds and 76 land units (HRUs. The watershed is mostly covered by forest (53% and grassland (31%. The analysis revealed the 10 most sensitive parameters i.e. GW_DELAY, CN2, REVAPMN, ALPHA_BF, SOL_AWC, GW_REVAP, GWQMN, CH_K2 and ESCO. Model performances were categorized into very good for monthly reservoir volume with ENS 0.95, RSR 0.23, and PBIAS 2.97. The model performance decreased when it used to analyze daily reservoir inflow with ENS 0.55, RSR 0.67, and PBIAS 3.46. Keywords: Keliling Reservoir, SWAT, Watershed   ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk untuk memodelkan daerah tangkapan air Waduk Keliling dengan menggunakan Model SWAT. Waduk Keliling terletak di Kabupaten Aceh Besar, Propinsi Aceh. Dalam penelitian ini Model SWAT dikembangkan berdasarkan data digital elevasi model resolusi 90 m x90 m, tata guna lahan yang diperoleh dari intepretasi citra satelit dan data soil dari hasil analisa sampel tanah yang diperoleh di daerah penelitian. Model dikalibrasi dengan data volume waduk dan kinerja model dianalisa menggunakan parameter rasio akar rata-rata kuadrat error dan standard deviasi observasi (RSR, efesiensi Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE dan persentase bias (PBIAS. Hasil deleniasi untuk daerah penelitian menghasilkan suatu DAS dengan luas 3,448 Ha dan memiliki 13 Sub DAS yang dikelompokkan menjadi 76 unit lahan. Sebagian besar wilayah study

  4. Incentive Mechanism Model Design for Sharing of Information Resources in Rural Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Xirong; Shan, Lingling

    2013-01-01

    In order to solve the issues concerning the cross-unit sharing of information resources in rural areas, we analyze the incentive problem of the sharing of information resources in rural areas using the incentive theory method; establish corresponding incentive mechanism model (It is divided into positive incentive model and negative incentive model, and only when the two models guarantee each other and are used at the same time can they be effective). Based on this, we put forward the institu...

  5. Hydrological Modelling and data assimilation of Satellite Snow Cover Area using a Land Surface Model, VIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naha

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The snow cover plays an important role in Himalayan region as it contributes a useful amount to the river discharge. So, besides estimating rainfall runoff, proper assessment of snowmelt runoff for efficient management and water resources planning is also required. A Land Surface Model, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity is used at a high resolution grid size of 1 km. Beas river basin up to Thalot in North West Himalayas (NWH have been selected as the study area. At first model setup is done and VIC has been run in its energy balance mode. The fluxes obtained from VIC has been routed to simulate the discharge for the time period of (2003-2006. Data Assimilation is done for the year 2006 and the techniques of Data Assimilation considered in this study are Direct Insertion (D.I and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA to update hydrologic model states. The meteorological forcings were taken from 0.5 deg. resolution VIC global forcing data from 1979-2006 with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature from Climate Research unit (CRU, rainfall from daily variability of NCEP and wind speed from NCEP-NCAR analysis as main inputs and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD data of 0.25 °. NBSSLUP soil map and land use land cover map of ISRO-GBP project for year 2014 were used for generating the soil parameters and vegetation parameters respectively. The threshold temperature i.e. the minimum rain temperature is -0.5°C and maximum snow temperature is about +0.5°C at which VIC can generate snow fluxes. Hydrological simulations were done using both NCEP and IMD based meteorological Forcing datasets, but very few snow fluxes were obtained using IMD data met forcing, whereas NCEP based met forcing has given significantly better snow fluxes throughout the simulation years as the temperature resolution as given by IMD data is 0.5°C and rainfall resolution of 0.25°C. The simulated discharge has been validated

  6. Forest Conservation Opportunity Areas - Conservative Model (ECO_RES.COA_FORREST66)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This layer designates areas with potential for forest conservation. These are areas of natural or semi-natural forest land cover patches that area at least 395 meters away from roads and away from patch edges. OAs were modeled by creating distance grids using the National Land Cover Database and the Census Bureau's TIGER road files.

  7. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Analysis of premature mortality variations via standardized expected years of life lost (SEYLL) measures raises questions about suitable modelling for mortality data, especially when developing SEYLL profiles for areas with small populations. Existing fixed effects estimation methods take no account of correlations in mortality levels over ages, causes, socio-ethnic groups or areas. They also do not specify an underlying data generating process, or a likelihood model that can include trends or correlations, and are likely to produce unstable estimates for small-areas. An alternative strategy involves a fully specified data generation process, and a random effects model which "borrows strength" to produce stable SEYLL estimates, allowing for correlations between ages, areas and socio-ethnic groups. The resulting modelling strategy is applied to gender-specific differences in SEYLL rates in small-areas in NE London, and to cause-specific mortality for leading causes of premature mortality in these areas.

  9. Ocean model system for radionuclides - validation and application to the Rokkasho coastal area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Takuya

    2010-01-01

    Coastal areas have complex environmental systems and often a high influence from the atmosphere, rivers and the open sea. A nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Japan releases liquid radioactive waste from a discharge pipe to such a complex coastal area. Consequently, the development of radionuclide migration forecast system in the ocean plays an important rule for assessing the behavior of radionuclides in the coastal area. The development of ocean model systems will be presented and model application will also be described. (author)

  10. PARATI - a dynamic model for radiological assessments in urban areas. Pt. 1. Modelling of urban areas, their contamination and radiation fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rochedo, E.R.R.; Conti, L.F.C.; Paretzke, H.G.

    1996-01-01

    The structure and mathematical model of PARATI, a detailed computer programme developed for the assessment of the radiological consequences of an accidental contamination of urban areas, is described with respect to the scenarios used for the estimation of exposure fields in a village or town, the models for the initial and secondary contamination with the radionuclide 137 Cs, the concepts for calculating the resulting radiation exposures and the changes with time of the contamination and radiation fields. Kerma rates at various locations in tropical urban areas are given, and the contribution of different contaminated surfaces to these rates after dry or wet deposition are discussed. (orig.). With 6 figs., 12 tabs

  11. A Polygon Model for Wireless Sensor Network Deployment with Directional Sensing Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chun-Hsien; Chung, Yeh-Ching

    2009-01-01

    The modeling of the sensing area of a sensor node is essential for the deployment algorithm of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). In this paper, a polygon model is proposed for the sensor node with directional sensing area. In addition, a WSN deployment algorithm is presented with topology control and scoring mechanisms to maintain network connectivity and improve sensing coverage rate. To evaluate the proposed polygon model and WSN deployment algorithm, a simulation is conducted. The simulation results show that the proposed polygon model outperforms the existed disk model and circular sector model in terms of the maximum sensing coverage rate. PMID:22303159

  12. Models of bedrock surface and overburden thickness over Olkiluoto island and nearby sea area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moenkkoenen, H.

    2012-04-01

    In this report, a model of bedrock surface and a model of overburden thickness over the Olkiluoto Island and the nearby sea area are presented. Also in purpose to produce material for biosphere and radionuclide transport modelling, stratigraphy models of different sediment layers were created at two priority areas north and south of the Olkiluoto Island. The work concentrated on the collection and description of available data of bedrock surface and overburden thickness. Because the information on the bedrock surface and overburden is collected from different sources and is based on a number of types of data the quality and applicability of data sets varies. Consequently also the reliability in different parts of the models varies. Input data for the bedrock surface and overburden thickness models include 2928 single points and additional outcrops observations (611 polygons) in the modelled area. In addition, the input data include 173 seismic refraction lines (6534 points) and acousticseismic sounding lines (26655 points from which 13721 points are located in model area) in the Olkiluoto offshore area. The average elevation of bedrock surface in area is 2.1 metres above the sea level. The average thickness of overburden is 2.5 metres varying typically between 2 - 4 metres. Thickest overburden covers (approximately 16 metres) of terrestrial area are located at the western end of the Olkiluoto Island and in sea basin south of the island. (orig.)

  13. Bayesian Predictive Inference of a Proportion Under a Twofold Small-Area Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandram Balgobin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We extend the twofold small-area model of Stukel and Rao (1997; 1999 to accommodate binary data. An example is the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS, in which pass-fail data for mathematics of students from US schools (clusters are available at the third grade by regions and communities (small areas. We compare the finite population proportions of these small areas. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model in which the firststage binary responses have independent Bernoulli distributions, and each subsequent stage is modeled using a beta distribution, which is parameterized by its mean and a correlation coefficient. This twofold small-area model has an intracluster correlation at the first stage and an intercluster correlation at the second stage. The final-stage mean and all correlations are assumed to be noninformative independent random variables. We show how to infer the finite population proportion of each area. We have applied our models to synthetic TIMSS data to show that the twofold model is preferred over a onefold small-area model that ignores the clustering within areas. We further compare these models using a simulation study, which shows that the intracluster correlation is particularly important.

  14. Models of bedrock surface and overburden thickness over Olkiluoto island and nearby sea area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moenkkoenen, H. [WSP Finland Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

    2012-04-15

    In this report, a model of bedrock surface and a model of overburden thickness over the Olkiluoto Island and the nearby sea area are presented. Also in purpose to produce material for biosphere and radionuclide transport modelling, stratigraphy models of different sediment layers were created at two priority areas north and south of the Olkiluoto Island. The work concentrated on the collection and description of available data of bedrock surface and overburden thickness. Because the information on the bedrock surface and overburden is collected from different sources and is based on a number of types of data the quality and applicability of data sets varies. Consequently also the reliability in different parts of the models varies. Input data for the bedrock surface and overburden thickness models include 2928 single points and additional outcrops observations (611 polygons) in the modelled area. In addition, the input data include 173 seismic refraction lines (6534 points) and acousticseismic sounding lines (26655 points from which 13721 points are located in model area) in the Olkiluoto offshore area. The average elevation of bedrock surface in area is 2.1 metres above the sea level. The average thickness of overburden is 2.5 metres varying typically between 2 - 4 metres. Thickest overburden covers (approximately 16 metres) of terrestrial area are located at the western end of the Olkiluoto Island and in sea basin south of the island. (orig.)

  15. Marine and Coastal Morphology: medium term and long-term area modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn

    This thesis documents development and application of a modelling concept developed in collaboration between DTU and DHI. The modelling concept is used in morphological modelling in coastal areas where the governing sediment transport processes are due to wave action. The modelling concept...... is defined: Hybrid morphological modelling and it is based on coupling calculated sediment transport fields from a traditional process based coastal area model with a parametrised morphological evolution model. The focus of this study is to explore possible parametric formulations of the morphological...... solution has a two dimensional nature. 1.5D shoreline model A so-called “1.5D” implementation which introduces redistribution of sediment within a coastal profile in response to horizontal 2D currents makes it possible to simulate the morphological development in areas where 2D evolution occurs...

  16. Testing the ability of a semidistributed hydrological model to simulate contributing area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengistu, S. G.; Spence, C.

    2016-06-01

    A dry climate, the prevalence of small depressions, and the lack of a well-developed drainage network are characteristics of environments with extremely variable contributing areas to runoff. These types of regions arguably present the greatest challenge to properly understanding catchment streamflow generation processes. Previous studies have shown that contributing area dynamics are important for streamflow response, but the nature of the relationship between the two is not typically understood. Furthermore, it is not often tested how well hydrological models simulate contributing area. In this study, the ability of a semidistributed hydrological model, the PDMROF configuration of Environment Canada's MESH model, was tested to determine if it could simulate contributing area. The study focused on the St. Denis Creek watershed in central Saskatchewan, Canada, which with its considerable topographic depressions, exhibits wide variation in contributing area, making it ideal for this type of investigation. MESH-PDMROF was able to replicate contributing area derived independently from satellite imagery. Daily model simulations revealed a hysteretic relationship between contributing area and streamflow not apparent from the less frequent remote sensing observations. This exercise revealed that contributing area extent can be simulated by a semi-distributed hydrological model with a scheme that assumes storage capacity distribution can be represented with a probability function. However, further investigation is needed to determine if it can adequately represent the complex relationship between streamflow and contributing area that is such a key signature of catchment behavior.

  17. Models for dose assessments. Models adapted to the SFR-area, Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Bergstroem, U.; Meili, M. [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    2001-10-01

    This report presents a model system created to be used to predict dose rates to the most exposed individuals in case of a long-term release of radionuclides from the Final repository for radioactive operational waste (SFR) in Forsmark, Sweden. The system accounts for an underground point source emitting radionuclides to the biosphere,their transport and distribution in various ecosystem types, their uptake by various biota, and calculation of doses to man from a multitude of exposure pathways. Long-term aspects include the consideration of processes at geological time scales, such as land uplift and conversion of marine sediments to arable land. Model parameters are whenever possible based on local conditions and recent literature. The system has been used for simulations based on geospheric releases varying over time of a mixture of radionuclides. Here, the models have been subjected to various test scenarios, including different radionuclide entry points and sorption properties. Radionuclides released from SFR are efficiently diluted to low concentrations in the water of the coastal model. A large fraction of the nuclides leave the Model Area quickly as a consequence of the rapid water turnover. The total amount of radionuclides in water is about the same independent of particle affinity (K{sub d} ), and at most some percents of the amounts retained in the sediments for some time. The latter is also true for the lake model when releases of radionuclides to the water is simulated. The role of sediments as a radionuclide source seems of minor importance in lakes at least for long-term radiation doses. Modelling the sediments as a source of radionuclides most of the 'low K{sub d} radionuclides' will leave the lake whereas the 'high K{sub d} nuclides' are still present within the deeper sediments after 1 000 years. The amount of 'low K{sub d} radionuclides' present in the water and on suspended matter are about 8x10{sup -5} of the

  18. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VII - Tritium Transport Model Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the tritium transport model documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  19. Splitting and non splitting are pollution models photochemical reactions in the urban areas of greater Tehran area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidarinasab, A.; Dabir, B.; Sahimi, M.; Badii, Kh.

    2003-01-01

    During the past years, one of the most important problems has been air pollution in urban areas. In this regards, ozone, as one of the major products of photochemical reactions, has great importance. The term 'photochemical' is applied to a number of secondary pollutants that appear as a result of sun-related reactions, ozone being the most important one. So far various models have been suggested to predict these pollutants. In this paper, we developed the model that has been introduced by Dabir, et al. [4]. In this model more than 48 chemical species and 114 chemical reactions are involved. The result of this development, showed good to excellent agreement across the region for compounds such as O 3 , NO, NO 2 , CO, and SO 2 with regard to VOC and NMHC. The results of the simulation were compared with previous work [4] and the effects of increasing the number of components and reactions were evaluated. The results of the operator splitting method were compared with non splitting solving method. The result showed that splitting method with one-tenth time step collapsed with non splitting method (Crank-Nicolson, under-relaxation iteration method without splitting of the equation terms). Then we developed one dimensional model to 3-D and were compared with experimental data

  20. Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, Hafzullah; Sadan Ozgur Kirca, Veysel; Burgan, Halil Ibrahim; Kellecioglu, Dorukhan

    2016-05-01

    Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are widely used in most studies on water resources. Especially, when the topography and geomorphology of study area are considered, GIS can ease the work load. Detailed data should be used in this kind of studies. Because of, either the complication of the models or the requirement of highly detailed data, model outputs can be obtained fast only with a good optimization. The aim in this study, firstly, is to determine flood-prone areas in a watershed by using a hydrological model considering two wetness indexes; the topographical wetness index, and the SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses) wetness index. The wetness indexes were obtained in the Quantum GIS (QGIS) software by using the Digital Elevation Model of the study area. Flood-prone areas are determined by considering the wetness index maps of the watershed. As the second stage of this study, a hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, was executed to determine flood inundation areas under different return period-flood events. River network cross-sections required for this study were derived from highly detailed digital elevation models by QGIS. Also river hydraulic parameters were used in the hydraulic model. Modelling technology used in this study is made of freely available open source softwares. Based on case studies performed on watersheds in Turkey, it is concluded that results of such studies can be used for taking precaution measures against life and monetary losses due to floods in urban areas particularly.

  1. Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Geographic Information Systems (GIS are widely used in most studies on water resources. Especially, when the topography and geomorphology of study area are considered, GIS can ease the work load. Detailed data should be used in this kind of studies. Because of, either the complication of the models or the requirement of highly detailed data, model outputs can be obtained fast only with a good optimization. The aim in this study, firstly, is to determine flood-prone areas in a watershed by using a hydrological model considering two wetness indexes; the topographical wetness index, and the SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses wetness index. The wetness indexes were obtained in the Quantum GIS (QGIS software by using the Digital Elevation Model of the study area. Flood-prone areas are determined by considering the wetness index maps of the watershed. As the second stage of this study, a hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, was executed to determine flood inundation areas under different return period-flood events. River network cross-sections required for this study were derived from highly detailed digital elevation models by QGIS. Also river hydraulic parameters were used in the hydraulic model. Modelling technology used in this study is made of freely available open source softwares. Based on case studies performed on watersheds in Turkey, it is concluded that results of such studies can be used for taking precaution measures against life and monetary losses due to floods in urban areas particularly.

  2. Explanatory models concerning the effects of small-area characteristics on individual health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigtländer, Sven; Vogt, Verena; Mielck, Andreas; Razum, Oliver

    2014-06-01

    Material and social living conditions at the small-area level are assumed to have an effect on individual health. We review existing explanatory models concerning the effects of small-area characteristics on health and describe the gaps future research should try to fill. Systematic literature search for, and analysis of, studies that propose an explanatory model of the relationship between small-area characteristics and health. Fourteen studies met our inclusion criteria. Using various theoretical approaches, almost all of the models are based on a three-tier structure linking social inequalities (posited at the macro-level), small-area characteristics (posited at the meso-level) and individual health (micro-level). No study explicitly defines the geographical borders of the small-area context. The health impact of the small-area characteristics is explained by specific pathways involving mediating factors (psychological, behavioural, biological). These pathways tend to be seen as uni-directional; often, causality is implied. They may be modified by individual factors. A number of issues need more attention in research on explanatory models concerning small-area effects on health. Among them are the (geographical) definition of the small-area context; the systematic description of pathways comprising small-area contextual as well as compositional factors; questions of direction of association and causality; and the integration of a time dimension.

  3. Non-destructive linear model for leaf area estimation in Vernonia ferruginea Less

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MC. Souza

    Full Text Available Leaf area estimation is an important biometrical trait for evaluating leaf development and plant growth in field and pot experiments. We developed a non-destructive model to estimate the leaf area (LA of Vernonia ferruginea using the length (L and width (W leaf dimensions. Different combinations of linear equations were obtained from L, L2, W, W2, LW and L2W2. The linear regressions using the product of LW dimensions were more efficient to estimate the LA of V. ferruginea than models based on a single dimension (L, W, L2 or W2. Therefore, the linear regression “LA=0.463+0.676WL” provided the most accurate estimate of V. ferruginea leaf area. Validation of the selected model showed that the correlation between real measured leaf area and estimated leaf area was very high.

  4. Species-free species distribution models describe macroecological properties of protected area networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A

    2017-01-01

    Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have

  5. An Illustration of Generalised Arma (garma) Time Series Modeling of Forest Area in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, Thulasyammal Ramiah; Shitan, Mahendran

    Forestry is the art and science of managing forests, tree plantations, and related natural resources. The main goal of forestry is to create and implement systems that allow forests to continue a sustainable provision of environmental supplies and services. Forest area is land under natural or planted stands of trees, whether productive or not. Forest area of Malaysia has been observed over the years and it can be modeled using time series models. A new class of GARMA models have been introduced in the time series literature to reveal some hidden features in time series data. For these models to be used widely in practice, we illustrate the fitting of GARMA (1, 1; 1, δ) model to the Annual Forest Area data of Malaysia which has been observed from 1987 to 2008. The estimation of the model was done using Hannan-Rissanen Algorithm, Whittle's Estimation and Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

  6. Modeling geomorphic changes in sedimentary rock areas. A case study in the Boso Peninsula area, Central Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanatani, Ikuo; Munakata, Masahiro; Kimura, Hideo; Sanga, Tomoji

    2011-01-01

    For the long-term safety of geological disposal of high-level radioactive wastes, evaluation of the radionuclide migration toward the human environment associated with groundwater flow is an issue of utmost importance. Therefore, we are carrying out a program for developing methods for assessing long-term groundwater flow in regional scales. As a part of the above program, we constructed models depicting the influences of geomorphological evolution on long-term groundwater flow. This was done by reconstructing the processes of river deepening with historical simulation of the profiles of four rivers in the Boso Peninsula. This area was selected because the sedimentary rocks are widely distributed with uncomplicated topography and geological structure which enabled the acquisition of a large amount of relevant geological information. The study resulted in the sum of erosion during the past 125,000 years which is the equivalent of one glacial to interglacial cycle. Consequently, the profiles of four rivers during the last glacial age to the present were successfully reconstructed using similar parameters. Also it was found that, in this area, the profiles were sculpted in accordance with the uplifting rates with very little influence of initial topography owing to the relatively soft and easily dissected characteristics of the geological units. However, detailed investigation revealed that the effects of geomorphological evolution differ between the rivers emptying into the inner bay and the rivers emptying into the open sea. In the case of the former two rivers, the river-bed elevation hardly changed during the 125,000 years and shows an extensive concave profile including the marine area. In the latter case, the elevation changed within the range of 20-30 m during the period and a convex profile appears in the marine area where the present water depth is over 30 m. Additionally the estimates of total amount of erosion during 125,000 years in the former group were

  7. FOOTPRINT: A Screening Model for Estimating the Area of a Plume Produced From Gasoline Containing Ethanol

    Science.gov (United States)

    FOOTPRINT is a screening model used to estimate the length and surface area of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) plumes in groundwater, produced from a gasoline spill that contains ethanol.

  8. State-of-the-art report on the theoretical modeling of interfacial area concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Won Jae; Euh, Dong Jin

    1998-03-01

    Classical approaches based on experimental correlations and the mechanistic approaches based on the interfacial area concentration were reviewed. The study focuses on the state-of-the-art researches based on the mechanistic modeling of the interfacial area concentration. The investigation is performed by classifying the mechanistic modeling approaches into those using the number density transport equations supported with a simple algebraic relation for obtaining interfacial area concentration and those using the direct interfacial area transport equations. The modeling approaches are subdivided into one group and multi-group models. The state-of-the-art source terms of transport equations are also investigated for their applicability and limitations. (author). 62 refs., 6 tabs., 49 figs

  9. The New York State Bird Conservation Area (BCA) Program: A Model for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. F. Burger; D. J. Adams; T. Post; L. Sommers; B. Swift

    2005-01-01

    The New York State Bird Conservation Area (BCA) Program, modeled after the National Audubon Society?s Important Bird Areas Program, is based on legislation signed by Governor Pataki in 1997. New York is the first state in the nation to enact such a program. The BCA Program seeks to provide a comprehensive, ecosystem approach to conserving birds and their habitats on...

  10. Forest Conservation Opportunity Areas - Liberal Model (ECO_RES.COA_FORREST33)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This layer designates areas with potential for forest conservation. These are areas of natural or semi-natural forest land cover patches that are at least 75 meters away from roads and away from patch edges. OAs were modeled by creating distance grids using the National Land Cover Database and the Census Bureau's TIGER roads files.

  11. Satellite-based empirical models linking river plume dynamics with hypoxic area andvolume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satellite-based empirical models explaining hypoxic area and volume variation were developed for the seasonally hypoxic (O2 < 2 mg L−1) northern Gulf of Mexico adjacent to the Mississippi River. Annual variations in midsummer hypoxic area and ...

  12. Alternative modelling of brittle structures in a sub-area of the SKB candidate area at Forsmark, eastern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askling, Per; Tiren, Sven A.; Beckholmen, Monica; Straeng, Thomas

    2008-11-01

    One way to test the confidence of a presented model is to construct an alternative model. Such work is cognitive process of skill acquisition and also a process of understanding data in the sense of sorting and classifying data. This is of particular interest for the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) in their technical review of SKB's on-going site investigation programme for potential repository sites. In this study, an alternative brittle deformation model of a selected part of the SKB candidate area in eastern Sweden was constructed. The input data set was obtained from SKB's database SICADA and is a selected set of data from five cored boreholes drilled from two drill-sites and comprises geophysical borehole logs, geological core-logs, hydrological logs (PFL; Posiva Flow Log) and borehole deviation measurements. Statistical cluster analysis applied on the geophysical borehole data were used to obtain the locations of bedrock with contrasting physical characteristics similar to those of brittle deformation zones. The cluster analysis is an objective procedure, contrasting with SKB's more subjective approach to the single-hole interpretation. Thus some differences are expected which could illustrate the effect of methodology that includes subjective 'expert judgement.' and indicate the possibility of alternative interpretations. The information about brittle structures in the geological boreholes logs was sorted and classification was made according to character of the structures (all fractures, open fractures, partly open fractures, frequency, orientate on/identification of fracture sets, sections of crush rock, and alteration). A separate study was performed to relate rock alteration with structures. The resolution applied in the fracture statistics is one metre, i.e. all studied entities were expressed per metre borehole length. All clusters were structurally characterized by the fractures inside the clusters (orientation and density of fractures) and

  13. Alternative modelling of brittle structures in a sub-area of the SKB candidate area at Forsmark, eastern Sweden.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Askling, Per; Tiren, Sven A.; Beckholmen, Monica; Straeng, Thomas (Geosigma AB, Uppsala (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    One way to test the confidence of a presented model is to construct an alternative model. Such work is cognitive process of skill acquisition and also a process of understanding data in the sense of sorting and classifying data. This is of particular interest for the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) in their technical review of SKB's on-going site investigation programme for potential repository sites. In this study, an alternative brittle deformation model of a selected part of the SKB candidate area in eastern Sweden was constructed. The input data set was obtained from SKB's database SICADA and is a selected set of data from five cored boreholes drilled from two drill-sites and comprises geophysical borehole logs, geological core-logs, hydrological logs (PFL; Posiva Flow Log) and borehole deviation measurements. Statistical cluster analysis applied on the geophysical borehole data were used to obtain the locations of bedrock with contrasting physical characteristics similar to those of brittle deformation zones. The cluster analysis is an objective procedure, contrasting with SKB's more subjective approach to the single-hole interpretation. Thus some differences are expected which could illustrate the effect of methodology that includes subjective 'expert judgement.' and indicate the possibility of alternative interpretations. The information about brittle structures in the geological boreholes logs was sorted and classification was made according to character of the structures (all fractures, open fractures, partly open fractures, frequency, orientate on/identification of fracture sets, sections of crush rock, and alteration). A separate study was performed to relate rock alteration with structures. The resolution applied in the fracture statistics is one metre, i.e. all studied entities were expressed per metre borehole length. All clusters were structurally characterized by the fractures inside the clusters (orientation and

  14. Modelling atmospheric deposition flux of Cadmium and Lead in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherin, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    According to WHO, air pollution is responsible for more than 3.7 million premature deaths each year (OMS, 2014). Moreover, among these deaths, more than 70 within urban areas. Consequently, the health and environmental impacts of pollutants within these urban areas are of great concern in air quality studies. The deposition fluxes of air pollutants, which can be significant near sources of pollution, have rarely been modeled within urban areas. Historically, atmospheric deposition studies have focused mostly on remote areas to assess the potential impacts on ecosystems of acid deposition and nitrogen loading. Therefore, current atmospheric deposition models may not be suitable to simulate deposition fluxes in urban areas, which include complex surface geometries and diverse land use types. Atmospheric dry deposition is typically modeled using an average roughness length, which depends on land use. This classical roughness-length approach cannot account for the spatial variability of dry deposition in complex settings such as urban areas. Urban canopy models have been developed to parameterize momentum and heat transfer. We extend this approach here to mass transfer, and a new dry deposition model based on the urban canyon concept is presented. It uses a local mixing-length parameterization of turbulence within the canopy, and a description of the urban canopy via key parameters to provide spatially distributed dry deposition fluxes. This approach provides spatially distributed dry deposition fluxes depending on surfaces (streets, walls, roofs) and flow regimes (recirculation and ventilation) within the urban area. (author) [fr

  15. Landslide susceptibility assessment using Spatial Analysis and GIS modeling in Cluj-Napoca Metropolitan Area, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Eugen Dolean

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In Romania, landslides together with the multitude geomorphological processes linked to them are some of the most common hazards which manifested in vulnerable areas with important human activities can induce many negative effects. From this perspective, identifying the areas affected by landslides, based on GIS spatial analysis models and statistical methods, is a subject frequently discussed in the national and international literature. This research was focused on the methods and practices of GIS spatial analysis, with a target of creating a complex model and a viable methodology of assessment the probability of occurrence of landslides, applicable within any territory. The study was based on the identification and analysis in a bivariate systemic manner of the numerous factors involved in the production of landslides, such as topography, morphology, hydrography, geological, lithology, weather, land use. The area in which the analysis has been conducted, The Metropolitan Area of Cluj-Napoca, was chosen due to the exacerbated urbanization of the recent years, coupled with a massive increase in the number of inhabitants, thus being a space of socioeconomic importance and a real challenge regarding spatial planning. Applying the model in this area has generated relatively good results, with a power of predictability of over 80%, measured in landslides sample areas used for the validation of the results, fact which attest the viability of the model and the fact that the model can be used in different areas with related morphometric and environmental characteristics.

  16. Source Release Modeling for the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory's Subsurface Disposal Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, B.H.

    2002-01-01

    A source release model was developed to determine the release of contaminants into the shallow subsurface, as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) evaluation at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory's (INEEL) Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA). The output of the source release model is used as input to the subsurface transport and biotic uptake models. The model allowed separating the waste into areas that match the actual disposal units. This allows quantitative evaluation of the relative contribution to the total risk and allows evaluation of selective remediation of the disposal units within the SDA

  17. Implementation of SNS Model for Intrusion Prevention in Wireless Local Area Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Isah, Abdullahi

    The thesis has proposed and implemented a so-called SNS (Social network security) model for intrusion prevention in the Wireless Local Area Network of an organization. An experimental design was used to implement and test the model at a university in Nigeria.......The thesis has proposed and implemented a so-called SNS (Social network security) model for intrusion prevention in the Wireless Local Area Network of an organization. An experimental design was used to implement and test the model at a university in Nigeria....

  18. Baseline groundwater model update for p-area groundwater operable unit, NBN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, J. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Amidon, M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report documents the development of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model of the hydrogeologic system of the P-Area Reactor Groundwater Operable Unit at the Savannah River Site (SRS) (Figure 1-1). The P-Area model provides a tool to aid in understanding the hydrologic and geochemical processes that control the development and migration of the current tritium, tetrachloroethene (PCE), and trichloroethene (TCE) plumes in this region.

  19. Application of source-receptor models to determine source areas of biological components (pollen and butterflies)

    OpenAIRE

    M. Alarcón; M. Àvila; J. Belmonte; C. Stefanescu; R. Izquierdo

    2010-01-01

    The source-receptor models allow the establishment of relationships between a receptor point (sampling point) and the probable source areas (regions of emission) through the association of concentration values at the receptor point with the corresponding atmospheric back-trajectories, and, together with other techniques, to interpret transport phenomena on a synoptic scale. These models are generally used in air pollution studies to determine the areas of origin of chemical compounds measured...

  20. Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-01-01

    Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied

  1. Off-design performance loss model for radial turbines with pivoting, variable-area stators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meitner, P. L.; Glassman, A. J.

    1980-01-01

    An off-design performance loss model was developed for variable stator (pivoted vane), radial turbines through analytical modeling and experimental data analysis. Stator loss is determined by a viscous loss model; stator vane end-clearance leakage effects are determined by a clearance flow model. Rotor loss coefficient were obtained by analyzing the experimental data from a turbine rotor previously tested with six stators having throat areas from 20 to 144 percent of design area and were correlated with stator-to-rotor throat area ratio. An incidence loss model was selected to obtain best agreement with experimental results. Predicted turbine performance is compared with experimental results for the design rotor as well as with results for extended and cutback versions of the rotor. Sample calculations were made to show the effects of stator vane end-clearance leakage.

  2. Real-time modeling of complex atmospheric releases in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskett, R.L.; Ellis, J.S.; Sullivan, T.J.

    1994-08-01

    If a nuclear installation in or near an urban area has a venting, fire, or explosion, airborne radioactivity becomes the major concern. Dispersion models are the immediate tool for estimating the dose and contamination. Responses in urban areas depend on knowledge of the amount of the release, representative meteorological data, and the ability of the dispersion model to simulate the complex flows as modified by terrain or local wind conditions. A centralized dispersion modeling system can produce realistic assessments of radiological accidents anywhere in a country within several minutes if it is computer-automated. The system requires source-term, terrain, mapping and dose-factor databases, real-time meteorological data acquisition, three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, and experienced staff. Experience with past responses in urban areas by the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory illustrate the challenges for three-dimensional dispersion models

  3. Real-time modelling of complex atmospheric releases in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskett, R.L.; Ellis, J.S.; Sullivan, T.J.

    2000-01-01

    If a nuclear installation in or near an urban area has a venting, fire, or explosion, airborne radioactivity becomes the major concern. Dispersion models are the immediate tool for estimating the dose and contamination. Responses in urban areas depend on knowledge of the amount of the release, representative meteorological data, and the ability of the dispersion model to simulate the complex flows as modified by terrain or local wind conditions. A centralised dispersion modelling system can produce realistic assessments of radiological accidents anywhere in a country within several minutes if it is computer-automated. The system requires source-term, terrain, mapping and dose-factor databases, real-time meteorological data acquisition, three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, and experienced staff. Experience with past responses in urban areas by the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory illustrate the challenges for three-dimensional dispersion models. (author)

  4. Evaluation of various modelling approaches in flood routing simulation and flood area mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    An essential process of flood hazard analysis and mapping is the floodplain modelling. The selection of the modelling approach, especially, in complex riverine topographies such as urban and suburban areas, and ungauged watersheds may affect the accuracy of the outcomes in terms of flood depths and flood inundation area. In this study, a sensitivity analysis implemented using several hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) and the effect of modelling approach on flood modelling and flood mapping was investigated. The digital terrain model (DTMs) used in this study was generated from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data. The modelling approaches included 1-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (1D), 2-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (2D) and the coupled 1D/2D. The 1D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: HECRAS, MIKE11, LISFLOOD, XPSTORM. The 2D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: MIKE21, MIKE21FM, HECRAS (2D), XPSTORM, LISFLOOD and FLO2d. The coupled 1D/2D models employed were: HECRAS(1D/2D), MIKE11/MIKE21(MIKE FLOOD platform), MIKE11/MIKE21 FM(MIKE FLOOD platform), XPSTORM(1D/2D). The validation process of flood extent achieved with the use of 2x2 contingency tables between simulated and observed flooded area for an extreme historical flash flood event. The skill score Critical Success Index was used in the validation process. The modelling approaches have also been evaluated for simulation time and requested computing power. The methodology has been implemented in a suburban ungauged watershed of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. The results of the analysis indicate the necessity of sensitivity analysis application with the use of different hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches especially for areas with complex terrain.

  5. Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Michelle; Wakefield, Jon

    2015-10-01

    Two-phase study designs are appealing since they allow for the oversampling of rare sub-populations which improves efficiency. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of two-phase data. Such a model is particularly appealing in a spatial setting in which random effects are introduced to model between-area variability. In such a situation, one may be interested in estimating regression coefficients or, in the context of small area estimation, in reconstructing the population totals by strata. The efficiency gains of the two-phase sampling scheme are compared to standard approaches using 2011 birth data from the research triangle area of North Carolina. We show that the proposed method can overcome small sample difficulties and improve on existing techniques. We conclude that the two-phase design is an attractive approach for small area estimation.

  6. Modeling and measurement of interfacial area concentration in two-phase flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paranjape, Sidharth; Ishii, Mamoru; Hibiki, Takashi

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents experimental and modeling approaches in characterizing interfacial structures in gas-liquid two-phase flow. For the modeling of the interfacial structure characterization, the interfacial area transport equation proposed earlier has been studied to provide a dynamic and mechanistic prediction tool for two-phase flow analysis. A state-of-the-art four-sensor conductivity probe technique has been developed to obtain detailed local interfacial structure information in a wide range of flow regimes spanning from bubbly to churn-turbulent flows. Newly obtained interfacial area data in 8 x 8 rod-bundle test section are also presented. This paper also reviews available models of the interfacial area sink and source terms and existing databases. The interfacial area transport equation has been benchmarked using condensation bubbly flow data.

  7. Efficient Calculation of Dewatered and Entrapped Areas Using Hydrodynamic Modeling and GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richmond, Marshall C.; Perkins, William A.

    2009-01-01

    River waters downstream of a hydroelectric project are often subject to rapidly changing discharge. Abrupt decreases in discharge can quickly dewater and expose some areas and isolate other areas from the main river channel, potentially stranding or entrapping fish, which often results in mortality. A methodology is described to estimate the areas dewatered or entrapped by a specific reduction in upstream discharge. A one-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate steady flows. Using flow simulation results from the model and a geographic information system (GIS), estimates of dewatered and entrapped areas were made for a wide discharge range. The methodology was applied to the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River in central Washington State. Results showed that a 280 m 3 /s discharge reduction affected the most area at discharges less than 3400 m 3 /s. At flows above 3400 m 3 /s, the affected area by a 280 m 3 /s discharge reduction (about 25 ha) was relatively constant. A 280 m 3 /s discharge reduction at lower flows affected about twice as much area. The methodology and resulting area estimates were, at the time of writing, being used to identify discharge regimes, and associated water surface elevations, that might be expected to minimize adverse impacts on juvenile fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) that rear in the shallow near-shore areas in the Hanford Reach

  8. Modelling of the over-exposed pixel area of CCD cameras caused by laser dazzling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benoist, K.W.; Schleijpen, R.M.A.

    2014-01-01

    A simple model has been developed and implemented in Matlab code, predicting the over-exposed pixel area of cameras caused by laser dazzling. Inputs of this model are the laser irradiance on the front optics of the camera, the Point Spread Function (PSF) of the used optics, the integration time of

  9. Traffic noise in shielded urban areas: comparison of experimental data with model results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Randrianoelina, A.; Salomons, E.M.

    2008-01-01

    Noise maps of cities are commonly produced with rather simple engineering models for sound propagation. These models may be inaccurate in complex urban situations, in particular in situations with street canyons. Street canyons are urban areas that are partly or completely enclosed by buildings, for

  10. Leaf area index uncertainty estimates for model-data fusion applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Richardson; D. Bryan Dail; D.Y. Hollinger

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of data uncertainties are required to integrate different observational data streams as model constraints using model-data fusion. We describe an approach with which random and systematic uncertainties in optical measurements of leaf area index [LAI] can be quantified. We use data from a measurement campaign at the spruce-dominated Howland Forest AmeriFlux...

  11. Modeling the intraurban variation in nitrogen dioxide in urban areas in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurung, Anobha; Levy, Jonathan I; Bell, Michelle L

    2017-05-01

    With growing urbanization, traffic has become one of the main sources of air pollution in Nepal. Understanding the impact of air pollution on health requires estimation of exposure. Land use regression (LUR) modeling is widely used to investigate intraurban variation in air pollution for Western cities, but LUR models are relatively scarce in developing countries. In this study, we developed LUR models to characterize intraurban variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) in urban areas of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, one of the fastest urbanizing areas in South Asia. Over the study area, 135 monitoring sites were selected using stratified random sampling based on building density and road density along with purposeful sampling. In 2014, four sampling campaigns were performed, one per season, for two weeks each. NO 2 was measured using duplicate Palmes tubes at 135 sites, with additional information on nitric oxide (NO), NO 2 , and nitrogen oxide (NOx) concentrations derived from Ogawa badges at 28 sites. Geographical variables (e.g., road network, land use, built area) were used as predictor variables in LUR modeling, considering buffers 25-400m around each monitoring site. Annual average NO 2 by site ranged from 5.7 to 120ppb for the study area, with higher concentrations in the Village Development Committees (VDCs) of Kathmandu and Lalitpur than in Kirtipur, Thimi, and Bhaktapur, and with variability present within each VDC. In the final LUR model, length of major road, built area, and industrial area were positively associated with NO 2 concentration while normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was negatively associated with NO 2 concentration (R 2 =0.51). Cross-validation of the results confirmed the reliability of the model. The combination of passive NO 2 sampling and LUR modeling techniques allowed for characterization of nitrogen dioxide patterns in a developing country setting, demonstrating spatial variability and high pollution levels. Copyright © 2017

  12. Drainage area characterization for evaluating green infrastructure using the Storm Water Management Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joong Gwang; Nietch, Christopher T.; Panguluri, Srinivas

    2018-05-01

    Urban stormwater runoff quantity and quality are strongly dependent upon catchment properties. Models are used to simulate the runoff characteristics, but the output from a stormwater management model is dependent on how the catchment area is subdivided and represented as spatial elements. For green infrastructure modeling, we suggest a discretization method that distinguishes directly connected impervious area (DCIA) from the total impervious area (TIA). Pervious buffers, which receive runoff from upgradient impervious areas should also be identified as a separate subset of the entire pervious area (PA). This separation provides an improved model representation of the runoff process. With these criteria in mind, an approach to spatial discretization for projects using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is demonstrated for the Shayler Crossing watershed (SHC), a well-monitored, residential suburban area occupying 100 ha, east of Cincinnati, Ohio. The model relies on a highly resolved spatial database of urban land cover, stormwater drainage features, and topography. To verify the spatial discretization approach, a hypothetical analysis was conducted. Six different representations of a common urbanscape that discharges runoff to a single storm inlet were evaluated with eight 24 h synthetic storms. This analysis allowed us to select a discretization scheme that balances complexity in model setup with presumed accuracy of the output with respect to the most complex discretization option considered. The balanced approach delineates directly and indirectly connected impervious areas (ICIA), buffering pervious area (BPA) receiving impervious runoff, and the other pervious area within a SWMM subcatchment. It performed well at the watershed scale with minimal calibration effort (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient = 0.852; R2 = 0.871). The approach accommodates the distribution of runoff contributions from different spatial components and

  13. Spatial occupancy models applied to atlas data show Southern Ground Hornbills strongly depend on protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broms, Kristin M; Johnson, Devin S; Altwegg, Res; Conquest, Loveday L

    2014-03-01

    Determining the range of a species and exploring species--habitat associations are central questions in ecology and can be answered by analyzing presence--absence data. Often, both the sampling of sites and the desired area of inference involve neighboring sites; thus, positive spatial autocorrelation between these sites is expected. Using survey data for the Southern Ground Hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri) from the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, we compared advantages and disadvantages of three increasingly complex models for species occupancy: an occupancy model that accounted for nondetection but assumed all sites were independent, and two spatial occupancy models that accounted for both nondetection and spatial autocorrelation. We modeled the spatial autocorrelation with an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model and with a restricted spatial regression (RSR) model. Both spatial models can readily be applied to any other gridded, presence--absence data set using a newly introduced R package. The RSR model provided the best inference and was able to capture small-scale variation that the other models did not. It showed that ground hornbills are strongly dependent on protected areas in the north of their South African range, but less so further south. The ICAR models did not capture any spatial autocorrelation in the data, and they took an order, of magnitude longer than the RSR models to run. Thus, the RSR occupancy model appears to be an attractive choice for modeling occurrences at large spatial domains, while accounting for imperfect detection and spatial autocorrelation.

  14. Numerical model for mapping of complex hydrogeological conditions: the Chmielnik area (South Poland) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buszta, Kamila; Szklarczyk, Tadeusz; Malina, Grzegorz

    2017-04-01

    Detailed analysis of hydrogeological conditions at a study area is the basis for characterising adjacent groundwater circulation systems. It is also an essential element during executing hydrogeological documentations. The goal of this work was to reconstruct on a numerical model natural groundwater circulation systems of the studied area located within the municipality of Chmielnik in the region of Kielce (South Poland). The area is characterized by a complex geological structure, which along with the existing hydrographic network, makes the scheme of groundwater circulation complicated and difficult to map on a numerical model. The studied area is situated at the border of three geological units: on the North - the extended portion of the Palaeozoic Swietokrzyskie Mountains (mainly Devonian and Permian), in the center - the S-W part of the Mesozoic Margin of the Swietokrzyskie Mountains, and on the South - a marginal zone of the Carpathian Foredeep. The whole area belongs to the Vistula river basin, and it includes catchments of its left tributaries: the Nida and Czarna Staszowska rivers. Based on the collected field and archival hydrogeological, hydrological and sozological data a conceptual model was built, under which a numerical model of groundwater flow was developed using the specialized software - Visual MODFLOW. The numerical model maps the five-layer groundwater circulation system in conjunction with surface watercourses. Such division reflects appropriately the variability of hydrogeological parameters within the geological structures. Two principal and exploited aquifers comprise: a fractured-porous Neogene and fractured Upper Jurassic formations. The external model borders are based primarily on surface watercourses and locally on watersheds. The modelled area of 130 km2 was divided into square grids of 50 m. The model consists of 275 rows and 277 columns. Each of five layers was simulated with the same number of active blocks. In the construction of

  15. Ecological-niche modeling and prioritization of conservation-area networks for Mexican herpetofauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbina-Cardona, J Nicolás; Flores-Villela, Oscar

    2010-08-01

    One of the most important tools in conservation biology is information on the geographic distribution of species and the variables determining those patterns. We used maximum-entropy niche modeling to run distribution models for 222 amphibian and 371 reptile species (49% endemics and 27% threatened) for which we had 34,619 single geographic records. The planning region is in southeastern Mexico, is 20% of the country's area, includes 80% of the country's herpetofauna, and lacks an adequate protected-area system. We used probabilistic data to build distribution models of herpetofauna for use in prioritizing conservation areas for three target groups (all species and threatened and endemic species). The accuracy of species-distribution models was better for endemic and threatened species than it was for all species. Forty-seven percent of the region has been deforested and additional conservation areas with 13.7% to 88.6% more native vegetation (76% to 96% of the areas are outside the current protected-area system) are needed. There was overlap in 26 of the main selected areas in the conservation-area network prioritized to preserve the target groups, and for all three target groups the proportion of vegetation types needed for their conservation was constant: 30% pine and oak forests, 22% tropical evergreen forest, 17% low deciduous forest, and 8% montane cloud forests. The fact that different groups of species require the same proportion of habitat types suggests that the pine and oak forests support the highest proportion of endemic and threatened species and should therefore be given priority over other types of vegetation for inclusion in the protected areas of southeastern Mexico.

  16. Small area estimation (SAE) model: Case study of poverty in West Java Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartini, Titin; Sadik, Kusman; Indahwati

    2016-02-01

    This paper showed the comparative of direct estimation and indirect/Small Area Estimation (SAE) model. Model selection included resolve multicollinearity problem in auxiliary variable, such as choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and implemented principal component (PC). Concern parameters in this paper were the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The approach for estimating these parameters could be performed based on direct estimation and SAE. The problem of direct estimation, three area even zero and could not be conducted by directly estimation, because small sample size. The proportion of agricultural venture poor households showed 19.22% and agricultural poor households showed 46.79%. The best model from agricultural venture poor households by choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and the best model from agricultural poor households by implemented PC. The best estimator showed SAE better then direct estimation both of the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The solution overcame small sample size and obtained estimation for small area was implemented small area estimation method for evidence higher accuracy and better precision improved direct estimator.

  17. Digital model analysis of the principal artesian aquifer, Savannah, Georgia area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counts, H.B.; Krause, R.E.

    1977-01-01

    A digital model of the principal artesian aquifer has been developed for the Savannah, Georgia, area. The model simulates the response of the aquifer system to various hydrologic stresses. Model results of the water levels and water-level changes are shown on maps. Computations may be extended in time, indicating changes in pumpage were applied to the system and probable results calculated. Drawdown or water-level differences were computed, showing comparisons of different water management alternatives. (Woodard-USGS)

  18. Development of a resuspension model for contaminated soils. Application to the Palomares area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.

    1993-01-01

    A model is presented which has been used to simulate the wind resuspension and transport of contaminated soil in the area surrounding the Palomares village, in Southern Spain. The model uses site specific data and some generic parameters as resuspension rate and deposition velocity. The model is able to predict the order of magnitude of the observed air concentration of activity. Some lines of research are suggested which could improve the understanding of the phenomena involved. (Author) 20 refs

  19. Development of a resupension model for contaminated soils: Application to the Palomares area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.

    1993-01-01

    A model is presented which has been used to simulate the wind resuspension and transport of contaminated soil in the area surrounding the Palomares village, in Southern Spain. The model uses site specific data and some generic parameters as resuspension rate and deposition velocity. The model is able to predict the order of magnitude of the observed air concentration of activity. Some lines of research are suggested which could improve the understanding of the phenomena involved. (author)

  20. Decision Model on Financing a Project Using Knowledge about Risk Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Ioana POPOVICI; Emil SCARLAT; Francesco RIZZO

    2011-01-01

    The research presents an alternative to the classical method of measuring financial risk in funding a project. The goal of the model described in the paper implies identifying "risky areas" within the financial balance of the project. The model analysis the financial risk behavior studied along four scenarios by varying only the cost of financing source used according to the specific type of funding. The model introduces the time factor into the analysis of financial risk due to the specific ...

  1. Ecosystem Services Modeling as a Tool for Defining Priority Areas for Conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Teixeira Duarte

    Full Text Available Conservationists often have difficulty obtaining financial and social support for protected areas that do not demonstrate their benefits for society. Therefore, ecosystem services have gained importance in conservation science in the last decade, as these services provide further justification for appropriate management and conservation of natural systems. We used InVEST software and a set of GIS procedures to quantify, spatialize and evaluated the overlap between ecosystem services-carbon stock and sediment retention-and a biodiversity proxy-habitat quality. In addition, we proposed a method that serves as an initial approach of a priority areas selection process. The method considers the synergism between ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Our study region is the Iron Quadrangle, an important Brazilian mining province and a conservation priority area located in the interface of two biodiversity hotspots, the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes. The resultant priority area for the maintenance of the highest values of ecosystem services and habitat quality was about 13% of the study area. Among those priority areas, 30% are already within established strictly protected areas, and 12% are in sustainable use protected areas. Following the transparent and highly replicable method we proposed in this study, conservation planners can better determine which areas fulfill multiple goals and can locate the trade-offs in the landscape. We also gave a step towards the improvement of the habitat quality model with a topography parameter. In areas of very rugged topography, we have to consider geomorfometric barriers for anthropogenic impacts and for species movement and we must think beyond the linear distances. Moreover, we used a model that considers the tree mortality caused by edge effects in the estimation of carbon stock. We found low spatial congruence among the modeled services, mostly because of the pattern of sediment retention

  2. Ecosystem Services Modeling as a Tool for Defining Priority Areas for Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira; Ribeiro, Milton Cezar; Paglia, Adriano Pereira

    2016-01-01

    Conservationists often have difficulty obtaining financial and social support for protected areas that do not demonstrate their benefits for society. Therefore, ecosystem services have gained importance in conservation science in the last decade, as these services provide further justification for appropriate management and conservation of natural systems. We used InVEST software and a set of GIS procedures to quantify, spatialize and evaluated the overlap between ecosystem services-carbon stock and sediment retention-and a biodiversity proxy-habitat quality. In addition, we proposed a method that serves as an initial approach of a priority areas selection process. The method considers the synergism between ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Our study region is the Iron Quadrangle, an important Brazilian mining province and a conservation priority area located in the interface of two biodiversity hotspots, the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes. The resultant priority area for the maintenance of the highest values of ecosystem services and habitat quality was about 13% of the study area. Among those priority areas, 30% are already within established strictly protected areas, and 12% are in sustainable use protected areas. Following the transparent and highly replicable method we proposed in this study, conservation planners can better determine which areas fulfill multiple goals and can locate the trade-offs in the landscape. We also gave a step towards the improvement of the habitat quality model with a topography parameter. In areas of very rugged topography, we have to consider geomorfometric barriers for anthropogenic impacts and for species movement and we must think beyond the linear distances. Moreover, we used a model that considers the tree mortality caused by edge effects in the estimation of carbon stock. We found low spatial congruence among the modeled services, mostly because of the pattern of sediment retention distribution.

  3. Analysis of area level and unit level models for small area estimation in forest inventories assisted with LiDAR auxiliary information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauro, Francisco; Monleon, Vicente J; Temesgen, Hailemariam; Ford, Kevin R

    2017-01-01

    Forest inventories require estimates and measures of uncertainty for subpopulations such as management units. These units often times hold a small sample size, so they should be regarded as small areas. When auxiliary information is available, different small area estimation methods have been proposed to obtain reliable estimates for small areas. Unit level empirical best linear unbiased predictors (EBLUP) based on plot or grid unit level models have been studied more thoroughly than area level EBLUPs, where the modelling occurs at the management unit scale. Area level EBLUPs do not require a precise plot positioning and allow the use of variable radius plots, thus reducing fieldwork costs. However, their performance has not been examined thoroughly. We compared unit level and area level EBLUPs, using LiDAR auxiliary information collected for inventorying 98,104 ha coastal coniferous forest. Unit level models were consistently more accurate than area level EBLUPs, and area level EBLUPs were consistently more accurate than field estimates except for large management units that held a large sample. For stand density, volume, basal area, quadratic mean diameter, mean height and Lorey's height, root mean squared errors (rmses) of estimates obtained using area level EBLUPs were, on average, 1.43, 2.83, 2.09, 1.40, 1.32 and 1.64 times larger than those based on unit level estimates, respectively. Similarly, direct field estimates had rmses that were, on average, 1.37, 1.45, 1.17, 1.17, 1.26, and 1.38 times larger than rmses of area level EBLUPs. Therefore, area level models can lead to substantial gains in accuracy compared to direct estimates, and unit level models lead to very important gains in accuracy compared to area level models, potentially justifying the additional costs of obtaining accurate field plot coordinates.

  4. Experimental determination and modelling of interface area concentration in horizontal stratified flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Junqua-Moullet, Alexandra

    2003-01-01

    This research thesis concerns the modelling and experimentation of biphasic liquid/gas flows (water/air) while using the two-fluid model, a six-equation model. The author first addresses the modelling of interfacial magnitudes for a known topology (problem of two-fluid model closure, closure relationships for some variables, equation for a given configuration). She reports the development of an equation system for interfacial magnitudes. The next parts deal with experiments and report the study of stratified flows in the THALC experiment, and more particularly the study of the interfacial area concentration and of the liquid velocities in such flows. Results are discussed, as well as their consistency

  5. Two-group modeling of interfacial area transport in large diameter channels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlegel, J.P., E-mail: schlegelj@mst.edu [Department of Mining and Nuclear Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology, 301 W 14th St., Rolla, MO 65409 (United States); Hibiki, T.; Ishii, M. [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Dr., West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • Implemented updated constitutive models and benchmarking method for IATE in large pipes. • New model and method with new data improved the overall IATE prediction for large pipes. • Not all conditions well predicted shows that further development is still required. - Abstract: A comparison of the existing two-group interfacial area transport equation source and sink terms for large diameter channels with recently collected interfacial area concentration measurements (Schlegel et al., 2012, 2014. Int. J. Heat Fluid Flow 47, 42) has indicated that the model does not perform well in predicting interfacial area transport outside of the range of flow conditions used in the original benchmarking effort. In order to reduce the error in the prediction of interfacial area concentration by the interfacial area transport equation, several constitutive relations have been updated including the turbulence model and relative velocity correlation. The transport equation utilizing these updated models has been modified by updating the inter-group transfer and Group 2 coalescence and disintegration kernels using an expanded range of experimental conditions extending to pipe sizes of 0.304 m [12 in.], gas velocities of up to nearly 11 m/s [36.1 ft/s] and liquid velocities of up to 2 m/s [6.56 ft/s], as well as conditions with both bubbly flow and cap-bubbly flow injection (Schlegel et al., 2012, 2014). The modifications to the transport equation have resulted in a decrease in the RMS error for void fraction and interfacial area concentration from 17.32% to 12.3% and 21.26% to 19.6%. The combined RMS error, for both void fraction and interfacial area concentration, is below 15% for most of the experiments used in the comparison, a distinct improvement over the previous version of the model.

  6. Using analytic element models to delineate drinking water source protection areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, Heather A; Bondoc, Michael; McGinnis, John; Metropulos, Kathy; Heider, Pat; Reed, Allison; Saines, Steve

    2006-01-01

    Since 1999, Ohio EPA hydrogeologists have used two analytic element models (AEMs), the proprietary software GFLOW and U.S. EPA's WhAEM, to delineate protection areas for 535 public water systems. Both models now use the GFLOW2001 solution engine, integrate well with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, have a user-friendly graphical interface, are capable of simulating a variety of complex hydrogeologic settings, and do not rely upon a model grid. These features simplify the modeling process and enable AEMs to bridge the gap between existing simplistic delineation methods and more complex numerical models. Ohio EPA hydrogeologists demonstrated that WhAEM2000 and GFLOW2000 were capable of producing capture zones similar to more widely accepted models by applying the AEMs to eight sites that had been previously delineated using other methods. After the Ohio EPA delineated protection areas using AEMs, more simplistic delineation methods used by other states (volumetric equation and arbitrary fixed radii) were applied to the same water systems to compare the differences between various methods. GIS software and two-tailed paired t-tests were used to quantify the differences in protection areas and analyze the data. The results of this analysis demonstrate that AEMs typically produce significantly different protection areas than the most simplistic delineation methods, in terms of total area and shape. If the volumetric equation had been used instead of AEMs, Ohio would not have protected 265 km2 of critical upgradient area and would have overprotected 269 km2 of primarily downgradient land. Since an increasing number of land-use restrictions are being tied to drinking water protection areas, this analysis has broad policy implications.

  7. [Impact of small-area context on health: proposing a conceptual model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigtländer, S; Mielck, A; Razum, O

    2012-11-01

    Recent empirical studies stress the impact of features related to the small-area context on individual health. However, so far there exists no standard explanatory model that integrates the different kinds of such features and that conceptualises their relation to individual characteristics of social inequality. A review of theoretical publications on the relationship between social position and health as well as existing conceptual models for the impact of features related to the small-area context on health was undertaken. In the present article we propose a conceptual model for the health impact of the small-area context. This model conceptualises the location of residence as one dimension of social inequality that affects health through the resources as well as stressors which are inherent in the small-area context. The proposed conceptual model offers an orientation for future empirical studies and can serve as a basis for further discussions concerning the health relevance of the small-area context. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  8. Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

  9. Three-Dimensional Groundwater Models of the 300 Area at the Hanford Site, Washington State

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Mark D.; Rockhold, Mark L.; Thorne, Paul D.; Chen, Yousu

    2008-09-01

    Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed field-scale groundwater flow and transport simulations of the 300 Area to support the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit Phase III Feasibility Study. The 300 Area is located in the southeast portion of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in Washington State. Historical operations involving uranium fuel fabrication and research activities at the 300 Area have contaminated engineered liquid-waste disposal facilities, the underlying vadose zone, and the uppermost aquifer with uranium. The main objectives of this research were to develop numerical groundwater flow and transport models to help refine the site conceptual model, and to assist assessment of proposed alternative remediation technologies focused on the 300 Area uranium plume.

  10. A high-resolution ocean circulation model of the Gulf of Naples and adjacent areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Ruggero, P.

    2013-01-01

    The implementation of a high-resolution circulation model of a southern Tyrrhenian coastal area is discussed. The sigma-coordinate Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is implemented with a 1/144° resolution in a domain that includes highly urbanized coastal areas, such as the Gulf of Naples and the nearby gulfs of Gaeta and Salerno, that are particularly relevant from oceanographic, ecological and social viewpoints. The model takes initial and boundary conditions from a 1/48° resolution POM model of the whole Tyrrhenian Sea. The main forcing is provided by ECMWF wind data, but an alternative wind field obtained from the Italian Space Agency COSMO-SkyMed X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar data is also tested. Fundamental aspects of coastal modeling, such as the relative importance of local and remote forcing in semi-enclosed seas, and the sensitivity to different wind products are discussed.

  11. MODELS OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ERRORS PREVENTION IN TERMINAL CONTROL AREAS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of this study is to research applied models of air traffic controllers’ errors prevention in terminal control areas (TMA under uncertainty conditions. In this work the theoretical framework descripting safety events and errors of air traffic controllers connected with the operations in TMA is proposed. Methods: optimisation of terminal control area formal description based on the Threat and Error management model and the TMA network model of air traffic flows. Results: the human factors variables associated with safety events in work of air traffic controllers under uncertainty conditions were obtained. The Threat and Error management model application principles to air traffic controller operations and the TMA network model of air traffic flows were proposed. Discussion: Information processing context for preventing air traffic controller errors, examples of threats in work of air traffic controllers, which are relevant for TMA operations under uncertainty conditions.

  12. Coupled geochemical/hydrogeological modelling to assess the origin of salinity at the Tono area (Japan)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guimera, Jordi; Ruiz, Eduardo; Luna, Miguel; Arcos, David; Jordana, Salvador; Saegusa, Hiromitsu

    2005-01-01

    Numerical models are powerful tools for the characterization of groundwater flow, especially when integrating geochemical and hydrogeological data. This paper describes modeling exercises performed in the area surrounding the Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU) Construction Site in central Japan. A particular issue being investigated at the MIU Site is the presence of saline water detected at depth in certain boreholes. The main objective of this study is to develop conceptual physical models for the origin of this salinity and to test these conceptual models using numerical modeling techniques. One scenario being investigated is that the saline fluids represent residual Miocene age seawater which has been slightly altered by water-rock interactions. It is likely that during Miocene times, seawater inundated the Tono area. This hypothesis is partially supported by carbon and oxygen isotopic data of the calcite fracture filling materials. (author)

  13. Atmospheric release model for the E-area low-level waste facility: Updates and modifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    None, None

    2017-01-01

    The atmospheric release model (ARM) utilizes GoldSim® Monte Carlo simulation software (GTG, 2017) to evaluate the flux of gaseous radionuclides as they volatilize from E-Area disposal facility waste zones, diffuse into the air-filled soil pores surrounding the waste, and emanate at the land surface. This report documents the updates and modifications to the ARM for the next planned E-Area PA considering recommendations from the 2015 PA strategic planning team outlined by Butcher and Phifer.

  14. Economic analysis of Marine Protected Areas: Bioeconomic Modeling and Economic Valuation Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Bui, Bich Xuan

    2017-01-01

    The papers 2 and 3 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 2: Xuan, B. B., Sandorf, E. D., Aanesen, M.: “Informing Management Strategies for a Reserve: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment Survey”. (Manuscript). Paper 3: Xuan, B. B.: “Extractive and Non-extractive Values of a Marine Protected Area: A Bio-economic Model Application". (Manuscript). Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established for conservation objectives. Benefits provided by MPAs exceed pure biod...

  15. Atmospheric release model for the E-area low-level waste facility: Updates and modifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2017-11-16

    The atmospheric release model (ARM) utilizes GoldSim® Monte Carlo simulation software (GTG, 2017) to evaluate the flux of gaseous radionuclides as they volatilize from E-Area disposal facility waste zones, diffuse into the air-filled soil pores surrounding the waste, and emanate at the land surface. This report documents the updates and modifications to the ARM for the next planned E-Area PA considering recommendations from the 2015 PA strategic planning team outlined by Butcher and Phifer.

  16. Integration of aerial oblique imagery and terrestrial imagery for optimized 3D modeling in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bo; Xie, Linfu; Hu, Han; Zhu, Qing; Yau, Eric

    2018-05-01

    Photorealistic three-dimensional (3D) models are fundamental to the spatial data infrastructure of a digital city, and have numerous potential applications in areas such as urban planning, urban management, urban monitoring, and urban environmental studies. Recent developments in aerial oblique photogrammetry based on aircraft or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer promising techniques for 3D modeling. However, 3D models generated from aerial oblique imagery in urban areas with densely distributed high-rise buildings may show geometric defects and blurred textures, especially on building façades, due to problems such as occlusion and large camera tilt angles. Meanwhile, mobile mapping systems (MMSs) can capture terrestrial images of close-range objects from a complementary view on the ground at a high level of detail, but do not offer full coverage. The integration of aerial oblique imagery with terrestrial imagery offers promising opportunities to optimize 3D modeling in urban areas. This paper presents a novel method of integrating these two image types through automatic feature matching and combined bundle adjustment between them, and based on the integrated results to optimize the geometry and texture of the 3D models generated from aerial oblique imagery. Experimental analyses were conducted on two datasets of aerial and terrestrial images collected in Dortmund, Germany and in Hong Kong. The results indicate that the proposed approach effectively integrates images from the two platforms and thereby improves 3D modeling in urban areas.

  17. Solar lighting system delivery models for rural areas in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koirala, Binod Prasad; Ortiz, Brisa [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Center for Renewable Energy (ZEE); Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Solare Energiesysteme (ISE), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Modi, Anish [KTH Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden); Mathur, Jyotirmay [Malaviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur (India); Kafle, Nashib [Alternative Energy Promotion Center (AEPC), Kathmandu (Nepal)

    2011-07-01

    Many rural areas in developing countries will not have electricity access from the central grid for several years to come. Autonomous Solar Lighting Systems (SLS) are attractive and enviromentally friendly options for replacing kerosene lamps and providing basic lighting services to such areas. In order to highlight the benefits of these technologies, analysis of reduction in indoor air pollution due to replacement of kerosene lamp by SLS has been carried out. Use of SLS in place of kerosene lamps saves an equivalent of 1341 kg CO{sub 2} emissions per annum from each household. If a suitable mechanism is created, this amount of GHG emissions saving could alone be sufficient to finance solar lighting system for rural households. However, these technologies have not reached most of the poor population. In order to guarantee the access of solar lighting to the people at the Base of the Pyramid (BOP), strengths of different organizations working in the rural areas should be combined together to form successful business models. This paper will discuss business models to disseminate such services to needy people. A comparative study of SLS delivery models based on cash, credit, leasing, subsidy and service is performed. In addition, SWOT analysis for each model is employed. Further, Case studies of few projects to elaborate different models are also presented. If suitable business models for its delivery to rural people are considered, solar lighting systems are viable for providing basic lighting needs of rural areas in developing countries. (orig.)

  18. The RISCOM Model in practice - recent experiences from new areas of application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Kjell; Wene, Clas-Otto

    2006-01-01

    The RISCOM project started with a pilot study in 1997, funded by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI). The RISCOM Model was further developed, tested and used as part of the European RISCOM II project. The RISCOM Model has emerged as a result of efforts in the area of nuclear waste management to make decision processes for e.g. the selection of sites for final disposal transparent. This is also the area where the model was first applied when hearings were designed for the Swedish site selection process. In recent years the RISCOM Model has been used to analyze the prerequisites for transparency in several areas, and the Transparency Forum idea has been applied in practical situations, most notably for risk assessment of mobile telephone systems and cleaning-up and remediation of contaminated sites. In this paper we summarize recent experiences in applying the RISCOM model in different policy making areas, comment on some aspects where the model offers unique possibilities and emphasize some crucial issues with regard to future applications

  19. The RISCOM Model in practice - recent experiences from new areas of application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Kjell [Karita Research AB, Taeby (Sweden); Wene, Clas-Otto [Wenergy, Lund (Sweden)

    2006-09-15

    The RISCOM project started with a pilot study in 1997, funded by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI). The RISCOM Model was further developed, tested and used as part of the European RISCOM II project. The RISCOM Model has emerged as a result of efforts in the area of nuclear waste management to make decision processes for e.g. the selection of sites for final disposal transparent. This is also the area where the model was first applied when hearings were designed for the Swedish site selection process. In recent years the RISCOM Model has been used to analyze the prerequisites for transparency in several areas, and the Transparency Forum idea has been applied in practical situations, most notably for risk assessment of mobile telephone systems and cleaning-up and remediation of contaminated sites. In this paper we summarize recent experiences in applying the RISCOM model in different policy making areas, comment on some aspects where the model offers unique possibilities and emphasize some crucial issues with regard to future applications.

  20. Coupled hydrogeological and reactive transport modelling of the Simpevarp area (Sweden)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molinero, Jorge; Raposo, Juan R.; Galindez, Juan M.; Arcos, David; Guimera, Jordi

    2008-01-01

    The Simpevarp area is one of the alternative sites being considered for the deep geological disposal of high level radioactive waste in Sweden. In this paper, a coupled regional groundwater flow and reactive solute transport model of the Simpevarp area is presented that integrates current hydrogeological and hydrochemical data of the area. The model simulates the current hydrochemical pattern of the groundwater system in the area. To that aim, a conceptual hydrochemical model was developed in order to represent the dominant chemical processes. Groundwater flow conditions were reproduced by taking into account fluid-density-dependent groundwater flow and regional hydrogeologic boundary conditions. Reactive solute transport calculations were performed on the basis of the velocity field so obtained. The model was calibrated and sensitivity analyses were carried out in order to investigate the effects of heterogeneities of hydraulic conductivity in the subsurface medium. Results provided by the reactive transport model are in good agreement with much of the measured hydrochemical data. This paper emphasizes the appropriateness of the use of reactive solute transport models when water-rock interaction reactions are involved, and demonstrates what powerful tools they are for the interpretation of hydrogeological and hydrochemical data from site geological repository characterization programs, by providing a qualitative framework for data analysis and testing of conceptual assumptions in a process-oriented approach

  1. Area and Power Modeling for Networks-on-Chip with Layout Awareness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Meloni

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Networks-on-Chip (NoCs are emerging as scalable interconnection architectures, designed to support the increasing amount of cores that are integrated onto a silicon die. Compared to traditional interconnects, however, NoCs still lack well established CAD deployment tools to tackle the large amount of available degrees of freedom, starting from the choice of a network topology. “Silicon-aware” optimization tools are now emerging in literature; they select an NoC topology taking into account the tradeoff between performance and hardware cost, that is, area and power consumption. A key requirement for the effectiveness of these tools, however, is the availability of accurate analytical models for power and area. Such models are unfortunately not as available and well understood as those for traditional communication fabrics. Further, simplistic models may turn out to be totally inaccurate when applied to wire dominated architectures; this observation demands at least for a model validation step against placed and routed devices. In this work, given an NoC reference architecture, we present a flow to devise analytical models of area occupation and power consumption of NoC switches, and propose strategies for coefficient characterization which have different tradeoffs in terms of accuracy and of modeling activity effort. The models are parameterized on several architectural, synthesis-related, and traffic variables, resulting in maximum flexibility. We finally assess the accuracy of the models, checking whether they can also be applied to placed and routed NoC blocks.

  2. Carbon Monoxide Emission and Concentration Models for Chiang Mai Urban Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    An emission inventory containing emissions from traffic and other sources was complied. Based on the analysis, Carbon Monoxide (CO) emissions from traffic play a very important role in CO levels in Chiang Mai area. Analysis showed that CO emissions from traffic during rush hours contributed approximately 90% of total CO emissions. Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was applied to simulate wind fields and temperatures in the Chiang Mai area, and eight cases were selected to study annual variations in wind fields and temperatures. Model results can reflect major features of wind fields and diurnal variations in temperatures. For evaluating the model performance, model results were compared with observed wind speed, wind direction and temperature, which were monitored at a meteorological tower. Comparison showed that model results are in good agreement with observations, and the model captured many of the observed features. HYbrid Particle And Concentration Transport model (HYPACT) was used to simulate CO concentration in the Chiang Mai area. Model results generally agree well with observed CO concentrations at the air quality monitoring stations, and can explain observed CO diurnal variations.

  3. MODEL SPASIAL DINAMIK GENANGAN AKIBAT KENAIKAN MUKA AIR LAUT DI PESISIR SEMARANG (Spatial Dynamic Model of Inundated area due to Sea Level rise at Semarang coastal Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifan R Suhelmi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRAK Kota Semarang merupakan kota pesisir di Provinsi Jawa Tengah yang memiliki topografi datar pada wilayah laut yang biasa disebut dengan kota bawah dan bergunung pada bagian atasnya yang biasa disebut dengan kota atas. Kota bawah memiliki kerentanan yang tinggi terhadap genangan akibat kenaikan muka air laut, hal ini disebabkan olehkondisi topografi yang datar. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk memberikan gambaran secara dinamik distribusi genangan akibat berbagai skenario kenaikan muka air laut. Model spasial dinamik menggunakan Flash yang berfungsi memberikan gambaran secara interaktif dan real time pada berbagai skenario kenaikan muka air laut. Skenario kenaikan muka air laut menggunakan skenario IPCC hingga tahun 2100. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa terjadi kenaikan jumlah genangan dari 599,4 ha pada tahun 2020 menjadi 4.235,4 ha pada tahun 2100.   ABSTRACT Semarang is one of coastal city located at Central Java Province. It has flatten topography at coastal area called “downside town” and hilly topography at upper area called “topside town”.  Ownside town was highly vulnerable to sea level rise caused by it’s topographic condition and the land subsidence phenomena. This research conducted to mapeed the inundated area due to sea level rise at many scenarios of sea level rise. The dynamic spatialmodel of sea level rise represented using flash techmology to showed distributed area inundated by sea level rise. The scenario of sea level rise by IPCC prediction was used at this study. The stuty showed that the inundated area increased from 599.4 ha at year 2020 to 4,235.4 ha at 2100.

  4. Model of external exposure of population living in the areas subjected to radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golikov, V.Yu.; Balonov, M.I.

    2002-01-01

    In the paper, we formulated the general approach to assessment of external doses to population living in contaminated areas (the model equation and the set of parameters). The model parameters were assessed on the basis of results of monitoring in the environment, phantom experiments, and social and demographic information obtained on the contaminated areas. Verification of model assessments performed by comparison with measurement results of individual external doses in inhabitants within the thermoluminescent dosimetry method have shown that differences in dose assessments within both methods does not exceed 1.5 times at a confidence level of 95%. In the paper, we present the results illustrating specific features of external dose formation in population living in the areas of Russia subjected to radioactive contamination due to nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk test site, radioactive releases from the Mayak enterprise, and the Chernobyl accident. (author)

  5. Macroscopic Model and Simulation Analysis of Air Traffic Flow in Airport Terminal Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Honghai Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We focus on the spatiotemporal characteristics and their evolvement law of the air traffic flow in airport terminal area to provide scientific basis for optimizing flight control processes and alleviating severe air traffic conditions. Methods in this work combine mathematical derivation and simulation analysis. Based on cell transmission model the macroscopic models of arrival and departure air traffic flow in terminal area are established. Meanwhile, the interrelationship and influential factors of the three characteristic parameters as traffic flux, density, and velocity are presented. Then according to such models, the macro emergence of traffic flow evolution is emulated with the NetLogo simulation platform, and the correlativity of basic traffic flow parameters is deduced and verified by means of sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that there are remarkable relations among the three characteristic parameters of the air traffic flow in terminal area. Moreover, such relationships evolve distinctly with the flight procedures, control separations, and ATC strategies.

  6. Impact of intertidal area characteristics on estuarine tidal hydrodynamics: A modelling study for the Scheldt Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, J.; Smolders, S.; Meire, P.; Temmerman, S.

    2017-11-01

    Marsh restoration projects are nowadays being implemented as ecosystem-based strategies to reduce flood risks and to restore intertidal habitat along estuaries. Changes in estuarine tidal hydrodynamics are expected along with such intertidal area changes. A validated hydrodynamic model of the Scheldt Estuary is used to gain fundamental insights in the role of intertidal area characteristics on tidal hydrodynamics and tidal asymmetry in particular through several geomorphological scenarios in which intertidal area elevation and location along the estuary is varied. Model results indicate that the location of intertidal areas and their storage volume relative to the local tidal prism determine the intensity and reach along the estuary over which tidal hydrodynamics are affected. Our model results also suggest that intertidal storage areas that are located within the main estuarine channel system, and hence are part of the flow-carrying part of the estuary, may affect tidal hydrodynamics differently than intertidal areas that are side-basins of the main estuarine channel, and hence only contribute little to the flow-carrying cross-section of the estuary. If tidal flats contribute to the channel cross-section and exert frictional effects on the tidal propagation, the elevation of intertidal flats influences the magnitude and direction of tidal asymmetry along estuarine channels. Ebb-dominance is most strongly enhanced if tidal flats are around mean sea level or slightly above. Conversely, flood-dominance is enhanced if the tidal flats are situated low in the tidal frame. For intertidal storage areas at specific locations besides the main channel, flood-dominance in the estuary channel peaks in the vicinity of those areas and generally reduces upstream and downstream compared to a reference scenario. Finally, the model results indicate an along-estuary varying impact on the tidal prism as a result of adding intertidal storage at a specific location. In addition to known

  7. Evaluation of Ecological Environmental Quality in a Coal Mining Area by Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaodong Yan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to explore the effective method of the comprehensive evaluation of ecological environmental quality in a coal mining area. Firstly, we analyzed the ecological environmental effect of the coal mining area according to Pigovian Tax theory and, according to the results of the analysis and the demand for the selection of evaluation indices by the comprehensive evaluation, built the corresponding comprehensive evaluation index system. We then used the correlation function method to determine the relative weights of each index. We determined the basic standards of a comprehensive evaluation of ecological environmental quality in a coal mining area according to the actual situation of ecological environmental quality assessments in coal mining areas in our country and the relevant provisions of the government. On this basis, we built the two-level extension comprehensive evaluation model for the evaluation of ecological environmental quality in mining areas. Finally, we chose a certain coal mining area of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited as the specific case. We used the relevant statistic data, technical and economic indices and the extension evaluation model to do the applied research of the comprehensive evaluation and tested the effectiveness of the comprehensive evaluation model.

  8. Model of succession in degraded areas based on carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Schwerk

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Degraded areas constitute challenging tasks with respect to sustainable management of natural resources. Maintaining or even establishing certain successional stages seems to be particularly important. This paper presents a model of the succession in five different types of degraded areas in Poland based on changes in the carabid fauna. Mean Individual Biomass of Carabidae (MIB was used as a numerical measure for the stage of succession. The run of succession differed clearly among the different types of degraded areas. Initial conditions (origin of soil and origin of vegetation and landscape related aspects seem to be important with respect to these differences. As characteristic phases, a ‘delay phase’, an ‘increase phase’ and a ‘stagnation phase’ were identified. In general, the runs of succession could be described by four different parameters: (1 ‘Initial degradation level’, (2 ‘delay’, (3 ‘increase rate’ and (4 ‘recovery level’. Applying the analytic solution of the logistic equation, characteristic values for the parameters were identified for each of the five area types. The model is of practical use, because it provides a possibility to compare the values of the parameters elaborated in different areas, to give hints for intervention and to provide prognoses about future succession in the areas. Furthermore, it is possible to transfer the model to other indicators of succession.

  9. Model of succession in degraded areas based on carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerk, Axel; Szyszko, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Degraded areas constitute challenging tasks with respect to sustainable management of natural resources. Maintaining or even establishing certain successional stages seems to be particularly important. This paper presents a model of the succession in five different types of degraded areas in Poland based on changes in the carabid fauna. Mean Individual Biomass of Carabidae (MIB) was used as a numerical measure for the stage of succession. The run of succession differed clearly among the different types of degraded areas. Initial conditions (origin of soil and origin of vegetation) and landscape related aspects seem to be important with respect to these differences. As characteristic phases, a 'delay phase', an 'increase phase' and a 'stagnation phase' were identified. In general, the runs of succession could be described by four different parameters: (1) 'Initial degradation level', (2) 'delay', (3) 'increase rate' and (4) 'recovery level'. Applying the analytic solution of the logistic equation, characteristic values for the parameters were identified for each of the five area types. The model is of practical use, because it provides a possibility to compare the values of the parameters elaborated in different areas, to give hints for intervention and to provide prognoses about future succession in the areas. Furthermore, it is possible to transfer the model to other indicators of succession.

  10. Spatial Hedonic Pricing Models for Testing the Adequacy of Acoustic Areas in Madrid, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José-María Montero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic noise is one of the main concerns of large cities. Most of them have classified their territory in acoustic areas and have constructed strategic noise maps. From both sources we have elaborated seven types of acoustic neighbourhoods according to both their noise gap in regard to the legal standard and the percentage of population exposed to noise. A spatial Durbin model has been selected as the strategy that best models the impact of noise on housing prices. However, results for Madrid do not confirm the hedonic theory and indicate, as one of the possibilities, that the official acoustic areas in Madrid could be incorrectly designed.

  11. Model endophenotype for bipolar disorder: Qualitative Analysis, etiological factors, and research areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naraiana de Oliveira Tavares

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to present an updated view of the writings on the endophenotype model for bipolar disorder using analytical methodologies. A review and analysis of networks was performed through descriptors and keywords that characterize the composition of the endophenotype model as a model of health. Information was collected from between 1992 and 2014, and the main thematic areas covered in the articles were identified. We discuss the results and question their cohesion, emphasizing the need to strengthen and identify the points of connection between etiological factors and characteristics that make up the model of endophenotypes for bipolar disorder.

  12. A 3D gravity and magnetic model for the Entenschnabel area (German North Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dressel, Ingo; Barckhausen, Udo; Heyde, Ingo

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we focus on structural configuration of the Entenschnabel area, a part of the German exclusive economic zone within the North Sea, by means of gravity and magnetic modelling. The starting point of the 3D modelling approach is published information on subseafloor structures for shallow depths, acquired by wells and seismic surveys. Subsequent gravity and magnetic modelling of the structures of the deeper subsurface builds on this geophysical and geological information and on gravity and magnetic data acquired during a research cruise to the Entenschnabel area. On the one hand, our 3D model shows the density and susceptibility distribution of the sediments and the crust. In addition, the potential field modelling provides evidence for a differentiation between lower and upper crust. The thickness distribution of the crust is also discussed with respect to the tectonic framework. Furthermore, gravity as well as magnetic modelling points to an intrusive complex beneath the Central Graben within the Entenschnabel area. On the other hand, this work provides a geological-geophysical consistent 3D gravity and magnetic model that can be used as a starting point for further investigation of this part of the German North Sea.

  13. Modelling the photochemical pollution over the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrego, C.; Monteiro, A.; Ferreira, J.; Moraes, M. R.; Carvalho, A.; Ribeiro, I.; Miranda, A. I.; Moreira, D. M.

    2010-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the photochemical pollution over the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre (MAPA), Brazil, where high concentrations of ozone have been registered during the past years. Due to the restricted spatial coverage of the monitoring air quality network, a numerical modelling technique was selected and applied to this assessment exercise. Two different chemistry-transport models - CAMx and CALGRID - were applied for a summer period, driven by the MM5 meteorological model. The meteorological model performance was evaluated comparing its results to available monitoring data measured at the Porto Alegre airport. Validation results point out a good model performance. It was not possible to evaluate the chemistry models performance due to the lack of adequate monitoring data. Nevertheless, the model intercomparison between CAMx and CALGRID shows a similar behaviour in what concerns the simulation of nitrogen dioxide, but some discrepancies concerning ozone. Regarding the fulfilment of the Brazilian air quality targets, the simulated ozone concentrations surpass the legislated value in specific periods, mainly outside the urban area of Porto Alegre. The ozone formation is influenced by the emission of pollutants that act as precursors (like the nitrogen oxides emitted at Porto Alegre urban area and coming from a large refinery complex) and by the meteorological conditions.

  14. Whole object surface area and volume of partial-view 3D models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulukutla, Gopal K; Proussevitch, Alexander A; Genareau, Kimberly D; Durant, Adam J

    2017-01-01

    Micro-scale 3D models, important components of many studies in science and engineering, are often used to determine morphological characteristics such as shape, surface area and volume. The application of techniques such as stereoscopic scanning electron microscopy on whole objects often results in ‘partial-view’ models with a portion of object not within the field of view thus not captured in the 3D model. The nature and extent of the surface not captured is dependent on the complex interaction of imaging system attributes (e.g. working distance, viewing angle) with object size, shape and morphology. As a result, any simplistic assumptions in estimating whole object surface area or volume can lead to significant errors. In this study, we report on a novel technique to estimate the physical fraction of an object captured in a partial-view 3D model of an otherwise whole object. This allows a more accurate estimate of surface area and volume. Using 3D models, we demonstrate the robustness of this method and the accuracy of surface area and volume estimates relative to true values. (paper)

  15. Simulation of leaf area index on site scale based on model data fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Wang, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    The world's grassland area is about 24 × 108hm2, accounting for about one-fifth of the global land area. It is one of the most widely distributed terrestrial ecosystems on Earth. And currently, it is the most affected area of human activity. A considerable portion of the global CO2 emissions are fixed by grassland, and the grassland carbon cycle plays an important role in the global carbon cycle (Li Bo, Yongshen Peng, Li Yao, China's Prairie, 1990). In recent years, the carbon cycle and its influencing factors of grassland ecosystems have become one of the hotspots in ecology, geology, botany and agronomy under the background of global change ( Mu Shaojie, 2014) . And the model is now as a popular and effective method of research. However, there are still some uncertainties in this approach. CEVSA ( Carbon Exchange between Vegetation, Soil and Atmosphere) is a biogeochemical cycle model based on physiological and ecological processes to simulate plant-soil-atmosphere system energy exchange and water-carbon-nitrogen coupling cycles (Cao at al., 1998a; 1998b; Woodward et al., 1995). In this paper, the remote sensing observation data of leaf area index are integrated into the model, and the CEVSA model of site version is optimized by Markov chain-Monte Carlo method to achieve the purpose of increasing the accuracy of model results.

  16. COMPARISON OF MULTI-SCALE DIGITAL ELEVATION MODELS FOR DEFINING WATERWAYS AND CATCHMENTS OVER LARGE AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Harris

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Digital Elevation Models (DEMs allow for the efficient and consistent creation of waterways and catchment boundaries over large areas. Studies of waterway delineation from DEMs are usually undertaken over small or single catchment areas due to the nature of the problems being investigated. Improvements in Geographic Information Systems (GIS techniques, software, hardware and data allow for analysis of larger data sets and also facilitate a consistent tool for the creation and analysis of waterways over extensive areas. However, rarely are they developed over large regional areas because of the lack of available raw data sets and the amount of work required to create the underlying DEMs. This paper examines definition of waterways and catchments over an area of approximately 25,000 km2 to establish the optimal DEM scale required for waterway delineation over large regional projects. The comparative study analysed multi-scale DEMs over two test areas (Wivenhoe catchment, 543 km2 and a detailed 13 km2 within the Wivenhoe catchment including various data types, scales, quality, and variable catchment input parameters. Historic and available DEM data was compared to high resolution Lidar based DEMs to assess variations in the formation of stream networks. The results identified that, particularly in areas of high elevation change, DEMs at 20 m cell size created from broad scale 1:25,000 data (combined with more detailed data or manual delineation in flat areas are adequate for the creation of waterways and catchments at a regional scale.

  17. Comparison of Multi-Scale Digital Elevation Models for Defining Waterways and Catchments Over Large Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, B.; McDougall, K.; Barry, M.

    2012-07-01

    Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) allow for the efficient and consistent creation of waterways and catchment boundaries over large areas. Studies of waterway delineation from DEMs are usually undertaken over small or single catchment areas due to the nature of the problems being investigated. Improvements in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, software, hardware and data allow for analysis of larger data sets and also facilitate a consistent tool for the creation and analysis of waterways over extensive areas. However, rarely are they developed over large regional areas because of the lack of available raw data sets and the amount of work required to create the underlying DEMs. This paper examines definition of waterways and catchments over an area of approximately 25,000 km2 to establish the optimal DEM scale required for waterway delineation over large regional projects. The comparative study analysed multi-scale DEMs over two test areas (Wivenhoe catchment, 543 km2 and a detailed 13 km2 within the Wivenhoe catchment) including various data types, scales, quality, and variable catchment input parameters. Historic and available DEM data was compared to high resolution Lidar based DEMs to assess variations in the formation of stream networks. The results identified that, particularly in areas of high elevation change, DEMs at 20 m cell size created from broad scale 1:25,000 data (combined with more detailed data or manual delineation in flat areas) are adequate for the creation of waterways and catchments at a regional scale.

  18. Extraction and representation of nested catchment areas from digital elevation models in lake-dominated topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, D. Scott; Band, Lawrence E.

    1998-04-01

    This paper presents a new method for extracting flow directions, contributing (upslope) areas, and nested catchments from digital elevation models in lake-dominated areas. Existing tools for acquiring descriptive variables of the topography, such as surface flow directions and contributing areas, were developed for moderate to steep topography. These tools are typically difficult to apply in gentle topography owing to limitations in explicitly handling lakes and other flat areas. This paper addresses the problem of accurately representing general topographic features by first identifying distinguishing features, such as lakes, in gentle topography areas and then using these features to guide the search for topographic flow directions and catchment marking. Lakes are explicitly represented in the topology of a watershed for use in water routing. Nonlake flat features help guide the search for topographic flow directions in areas of low signal to noise. This combined feature-based and grid-based search for topographic features yields improved contributing areas and watershed boundaries where there are lakes and other flat areas. Lakes are easily classified from remotely sensed imagery, which makes automated representation of lakes as subsystems within a watershed system tractable with widely available data sets.

  19. Uncertainty aspects of the digital elevation model for the Forsmark area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stroemgren, Maarten; Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden))

    2009-10-15

    A digital elevation model (DEM) describes the terrain relief. A proper DEM is an important data source for many of the different site description models conducted in the Forsmark region. Input data for the Forsmark DEM is elevation data for both land and sea areas of different origin and quality. No statistical analysis of the error in the Forsmark DEM is so far carried out. However, the Forsmark DEM is part of the quality assessment of the regolith depth model for the Forsmark area since it represents the upper surface of the regolith depth model. The aim of this project was to calculate the errors in different areas in the Forsmark DEM and present them in terms of general descriptive statistics. Measurements have confirmed the knowledge that the 0.25-metre DEM produced from the laser scanning measurements in the Laxemar-Simpevarp area is of very high quality. The 0.25-metre DEM was used to calculate the errors of the 10 and 50-metre DEMs, and the errors for different sea shoreline sources. These error distributions were placed randomly among points for the same data sources in the Forsmark area and used for correction of the original elevation levels. Using the corrected input data for the 10 and 50-metre DEMs and for the sea shoreline, a new DEM was produced. All other input data remained unchanged. The error for the Forsmark DEM was calculated for areas within the data sources corrected from the 0.25-metre DEM. The 0.25-metre DEM from the Laxemar-Simpevarp area was also used for a calculation of how density of input data points used in interpolation affects quality in a 20-metre DEM. Part of the input data was removed in the sea area, new DEMs were produced and compared to the existing Forsmark DEM within the areas of the removed data, to get a measure of the error in these areas of the DEM. In areas of input data for the sea shoreline, the quality of the Forsmark DEM is high. The errors within the SKB 10-metre DEM are slightly less than within the extension

  20. Uncertainty aspects of the digital elevation model for the Forsmark area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroemgren, Maarten; Brydsten, Lars

    2009-10-01

    A digital elevation model (DEM) describes the terrain relief. A proper DEM is an important data source for many of the different site description models conducted in the Forsmark region. Input data for the Forsmark DEM is elevation data for both land and sea areas of different origin and quality. No statistical analysis of the error in the Forsmark DEM is so far carried out. However, the Forsmark DEM is part of the quality assessment of the regolith depth model for the Forsmark area since it represents the upper surface of the regolith depth model. The aim of this project was to calculate the errors in different areas in the Forsmark DEM and present them in terms of general descriptive statistics. Measurements have confirmed the knowledge that the 0.25-metre DEM produced from the laser scanning measurements in the Laxemar-Simpevarp area is of very high quality. The 0.25-metre DEM was used to calculate the errors of the 10 and 50-metre DEMs, and the errors for different sea shoreline sources. These error distributions were placed randomly among points for the same data sources in the Forsmark area and used for correction of the original elevation levels. Using the corrected input data for the 10 and 50-metre DEMs and for the sea shoreline, a new DEM was produced. All other input data remained unchanged. The error for the Forsmark DEM was calculated for areas within the data sources corrected from the 0.25-metre DEM. The 0.25-metre DEM from the Laxemar-Simpevarp area was also used for a calculation of how density of input data points used in interpolation affects quality in a 20-metre DEM. Part of the input data was removed in the sea area, new DEMs were produced and compared to the existing Forsmark DEM within the areas of the removed data, to get a measure of the error in these areas of the DEM. In areas of input data for the sea shoreline, the quality of the Forsmark DEM is high. The errors within the SKB 10-metre DEM are slightly less than within the extension

  1. RANS modeling of scalar dispersion from localized sources within a simplified urban-area model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Riccardo; Capra, Stefano; Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2011-11-01

    The dispersion of a passive scalar downstream a localized source within a simplified urban-like geometry is examined by means of RANS scalar flux models. The computations are conducted under conditions of neutral stability and for three different incoming wind directions (0°, 45°, 90°) at a roughness Reynolds number of Ret = 391. A Reynolds stress transport model is used to close the flow governing equations whereas both the standard eddy-diffusivity closure and algebraic flux models are employed to close the transport equation for the passive scalar. The comparison with a DNS database shows improved reliability from algebraic scalar flux models towards predicting both the mean concentration and the plume structure. Since algebraic flux models do not increase substantially the computational effort, the results indicate that the use of tensorial-diffusivity can be promising tool for dispersion simulations for the urban environment.

  2. MINIMUM SOLID AREA MODELS FOR THE EFFECTIVE PROPERTIES OF POROUS MATERIALS - A REFUTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willi Pabst

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Minimum solid area (MSA models are popular models for the calculation of the effective properties of porous materials and are frequently used to justify the use of a simple exponential relation for fitting purposes. In this contribution it is shown that MSA models, and the simple exponentials they support, are misleading and should be avoided. In particular, taking Young modulus and conductivity (thermal or electrical as examples, it is shown that MSA models are based on the unjustified (and unjustifiable hypothesis that the relative Young modulus and relative conductivity are identical, and moreover equal to the MSA fraction itself. This claim is generally false for isotropic materials, both random or periodic. Although indeed a very specific case exists in which this claim is true for the properties in one specific direction (viz., extremely anisotropic materials with translational invariance, in this specific case MSA models are redundant, because the relative properties are given exactly by the volume- or area-weighted arithmetic mean. It is shown that the mere existence of non-trivial cross-property relations is incompatible with the existence of MSA models. Finally, it is shown by numerical (finite-element modeling that MSA models provide incorrect results even in the simplest of the cases for which they were originally designed, i.e. for simple cubic packings of partially sintered isometric (initially spherical grains. Therefore, paraphrasing Box, MSA models are not only wrong, but also useless, and should be abandoned.

  3. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  4. Multiple Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Richard J.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2008-01-01

    With the exception of Los Angeles, perhaps no urban area in the United States is more at risk from landsliding, triggered by either precipitation or earthquake, than the San Francisco Bay region of northern California. By January each year, seasonal winter storms usually bring moisture levels of San Francisco Bay region hillsides to the point of saturation, after which additional heavy rainfall may induce landslides of various types and levels of severity. In addition, movement at any time along one of several active faults in the area may generate an earthquake large enough to trigger landslides. The danger to life and property rises each year as local populations continue to expand and more hillsides are graded for development of residential housing and its supporting infrastructure. The chapters in the text consist of: *Introduction by Russell W. Graymer *Chapter 1 Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Activity, San Francisco Bay Region, Northern California by Raymond C. Wilson *Chapter 2 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 3 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 4 Landslide Hazard Modeled for the Cities of Oakland, Piedmont, and Berkeley, Northern California, from a M=7.1 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault Zone by Scott B. Miles and David K. Keefer *Chapter 5 Synthesis of Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike The plates consist of: *Plate 1 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike, Russell W. Graymer, Sebastian Roberts, Naomi B. Kalman, and Steven Sobieszczyk *Plate 2 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven

  5. A Multi-Area Stochastic Model for a Covert Visual Search Task.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Schwemmer

    Full Text Available Decisions typically comprise several elements. For example, attention must be directed towards specific objects, their identities recognized, and a choice made among alternatives. Pairs of competing accumulators and drift-diffusion processes provide good models of evidence integration in two-alternative perceptual choices, but more complex tasks requiring the coordination of attention and decision making involve multistage processing and multiple brain areas. Here we consider a task in which a target is located among distractors and its identity reported by lever release. The data comprise reaction times, accuracies, and single unit recordings from two monkeys' lateral interparietal area (LIP neurons. LIP firing rates distinguish between targets and distractors, exhibit stimulus set size effects, and show response-hemifield congruence effects. These data motivate our model, which uses coupled sets of leaky competing accumulators to represent processes hypothesized to occur in feature-selective areas and limb motor and pre-motor areas, together with the visual selection process occurring in LIP. Model simulations capture the electrophysiological and behavioral data, and fitted parameters suggest that different connection weights between LIP and the other cortical areas may account for the observed behavioral differences between the animals.

  6. From groundwater baselines to numerical groundwater flow modelling for the Milan metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosta, Giovanni B.; Frattini, Paolo; Peretti, Lidia; Villa, Federica; Gorla, Maurizio

    2015-04-01

    Contamination of major aquifers in highly densely populated areas is a major concern for stakeholders involved in the use and protection of groundwater resources. Sustainable groundwater withdrawal and management, and the identification of trends in groundwater contamination require a careful hydrochemical baseline characterization. This characterization is fundamental to investigate the presence and evolutionary trend of contaminants. In fact, it allows recovering and understanding: the spatial-temporal trend of contamination; the relative age of the contamination episodes; the reasons for anomalous behavior of some compounds during migration to and in the groundwater; the associations with which some contaminants can be found; the different behaviors in phreatic and semi-confined and confined aquifers. To attain such a characterization for the Milan metropolitan area (about 2,500 km2, ca 4.000.000 inhabitants, Lombardy, Italy), we carried out three main activities. (1) Collection of complete and reliable datasets concerning the geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical (over 60,000 chemical analysis since 2003 to 2013) characteristics of the area and of the involved aquifers. This activity was very demanding because the available data are provided by different authorities (Lombardy Region, Provinces, Lombardy Environmental Agency - ARPA Lombardia, public own companies in charge of water system managements) in raw format and with different database standard, which required a large effort of manual verification and harmonization. (2) Completion of a hydrochemical characterization of the metropolitan area aquifers by classical statistical and multivariate statistical analyses, in order to define a baseline both for some major physical chemical characteristics and for the most relevant contaminants. (3) Development of a three dimensional hydrogeological model for the metropolitan area starting from the above listed datasets and existing models. This model will

  7. Open critical area model and extraction algorithm based on the net flow-axis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Le; Wang Jun-Ping; Gao Yan-Hong; Xu Dan; Li Bo-Bo; Liu Shi-Gang

    2013-01-01

    In the integrated circuit manufacturing process, the critical area extraction is a bottleneck to the layout optimization and the integrated circuit yield estimation. In this paper, we study the problem that the missing material defects may result in the open circuit fault. Combining the mathematical morphology theory, we present a new computation model and a novel extraction algorithm for the open critical area based on the net flow-axis. Firstly, we find the net flow-axis for different nets. Then, the net flow-edges based on the net flow-axis are obtained. Finally, we can extract the open critical area by the mathematical morphology. Compared with the existing methods, the nets need not to divide into the horizontal nets and the vertical nets, and the experimental results show that our model and algorithm can accurately extract the size of the open critical area and obtain the location information of the open circuit critical area. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  8. Assessment of aquifer intrinsic vulnerability using GIS based Drastic model in Sialkot area, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Saqib Khan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.

  9. Development of a Groundwater Management Model for the Project Shoal Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    G. Lamorey; S. Bassett; R. Schumer; D. Boyle; G. Pohll; J. Chapman

    2006-09-01

    This document describes the development of a user-friendly and efficient groundwater management model of the Project Shoal Area (PSA and surrounding area that will allow the U.S. Department of Energy and State of Nevada personnel to evaluate the impact of proposed water-use scenarios. The management model consists of a simple hydrologic model within an interactive groundwater management framework. This framework is based on an object user interface that was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and has been used by the Desert Research Institute researchers and others to couple disparate environmental resource models, manage temporal and spatial data, and evaluate model results for management decision making. This framework was modified and applied to the PSA and surrounding Fairview Basin. The utility of the management model was demonstrated through the application of hypothetical future scenarios including mineral mining, regional expansion of agriculture, and export of water to large urban areas outside the region. While the results from some of the scenarios indicated potential impacts to groundwater levels near the PSA and others did not, together they demonstrate the utility of the management tool for the evaluation of proposed changes in groundwater use in or near the PSA.

  10. Models and Approaches for Integrating Protected Areas with Their Surroundings: A Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenwu Du

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have identified threats that originate in areas surrounding protected areas (PAs. While there have been various efforts to integrate PAs with their surroundings, considerable challenges remain. Here we summarize these efforts to date, discuss their effectiveness, and provide recommendations for future research. Based on a broad literature review of theoretical and applied approaches, we have outlined 68 models for balancing conservation and sustainable development in PAs. We comprehensively analyzed 23 of these models for integrating PAs with their surroundings. They were divided into two categories: area-oriented and process-oriented approaches. This review reveals the absolute necessity of combining these two approaches for future conservation and sustainable development of PAs.

  11. Modeled effects on permittivity measurements of water content in high surface area porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, S.B.; Or, Dani

    2003-01-01

    Time domain reflectometry (TDR) has become an important measurement technique for determination of porous media water content and electrical conductivity due to its accuracy, fast response and automation capability. Water content is inferred from the measured bulk dielectric constant based on travel time analysis along simple transmission lines. TDR measurements in low surface area porous media accurately describe water content using an empirical relationship. Measurement discrepancies arise from dominating influences such as bound water due to high surface area, extreme aspect ratio particles or atypical water phase configuration. Our objectives were to highlight primary factors affecting dielectric permittivity measurements for water content determination in porous mixtures, and demonstrate the influence of these factors on mixture permittivity as predicted by a three-phase dielectric mixture model. Modeled results considering water binding, higher porosity, constituent geometry or phase configuration suggest any of these effects individually are capable of causing permittivity reduction, though all likely contribute in high surface area porous media

  12. Footprint (A Screening Model for Estimating the Area of a Plume Produced from Gasoline Containing Ethanol

    Science.gov (United States)

    FOOTPRINT is a simple and user-friendly screening model to estimate the length and surface area of BTEX plumes in ground water produced from a spill of gasoline that contains ethanol. Ethanol has a potential negative impact on the natural biodegradation of BTEX compounds in groun...

  13. Use of remotely sensed precipitation and leaf area index in a distributed hydrological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, J.; Dybkjær, G.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2002-01-01

    Remotely sensed precipitation from METEOSAT data and leaf area index (LAI) from NOAA AVHRR data is used as input data to the distributed hydrological modelling of three sub catchments (82.000 km(2)) in the Senegal River Basin. Further, root depths of annual vegetation are related to the temporal...

  14. Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

    2005-01-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

  15. Using the SIMGRO regional hydrological model to evaluate salinity control measures in an irrigation area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kupper, E.; Querner, E.P.; Morábito, J.A.; Menenti, M.

    2002-01-01

    In irrigated areas with drainage and an important interaction with the groundwater system, it is often difficult to predict effects of measures to control salinity. Therefore, in order to evaluate measures to control salinity the SIMGRO integrated regional hydrological model was extended with a

  16. Bulgarian fuel models developed for implementation in FARSITE simulations for test cases in Zlatograd area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nina Dobrinkova; LaWen Hollingsworth; Faith Ann Heinsch; Greg Dillon; Georgi Dobrinkov

    2014-01-01

    As a key component of the cross-border project between Bulgaria and Greece known as OUTLAND, a team from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and Rocky Mountain Research Station started a collaborative project to identify and describe various fuel types for a test area in Bulgaria in order to model fire behavior for recent wildfires. Although there have been various...

  17. Geological characterization and solute transport model investigations of contaminated sites in urban areas (Denmark)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Theis Raaschou; Poulsen, Søren Erbs; Thomsen, Peter

    the two field sites includes only lithological profiles from boreholes. In order to increase the density of the field data, the two areas were mapped with Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT). Based on the borehole information and the high-density geophysical data, detailed 3D geological models...

  18. Analyses of gust fronts by means of limited area NWP model outputs

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kašpar, Marek

    67-68, - (2003), s. 559-572 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/00/1451 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : gust front * limited area NWP model * output Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.012, year: 2003

  19. An algorithm for treating flat areas and depressions in digital elevation models using linear interpolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Pan; M. Stieglitz; R.B. McKane

    2012-01-01

    Digital elevation model (DEM) data are essential to hydrological applications and have been widely used to calculate a variety of useful topographic characteristics, e.g., slope, flow direction, flow accumulation area, stream channel network, topographic index, and others. Except for slope, none of the other topographic characteristics can be calculated until the flow...

  20. Development of two-group interfacial area transport equation for confined flow-2. Model evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Xiaodong; Kim, Seungjin; Ishii, Mamoru; Beus, Stephen G.

    2003-01-01

    The bubble interaction mechanisms have been analytically modeled in the first paper of this series to provide mechanistic constitutive relations for the two-group interfacial area transport equation (IATE), which was proposed to dynamically solve the interfacial area concentration in the two-fluid model. This paper presents the evaluation approach and results of the two-group IATE based on available experimental data obtained in confined flow, namely, 11 data sets in or near bubbly flow and 13 sets in cap-turbulent and churn-turbulent flow. The two-group IATE is evaluated in steady state, one-dimensional form. Also, since the experiments were performed under adiabatic, air-water two-phase flow conditions, the phase change effect is omitted in the evaluation. To account for the inter-group bubble transport, the void fraction transport equation for Group-2 bubbles is also used to predict the void fraction for Group-2 bubbles. Agreement between the data and the model predictions is reasonably good and the average relative difference for the total interfacial area concentration between the 24 data sets and predictions is within 7%. The model evaluation demonstrates the capability of the two-group IATE focused on the current confined flow to predict the interfacial area concentration over a wide range of flow regimes. (author)

  1. Using regional bird density distribution models to evaluate protected area networks and inform conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    John D. Alexander; Jaime L. Stephens; Sam Veloz; Leo Salas; Josée S. Rousseau; C. John Ralph; Daniel A. Sarr

    2017-01-01

    As data about populations of indicator species become available, proactive strategies that improve representation of biological diversity within protected area networks should consider finer-scaled evaluations, especially in regions identified as important through course-scale analyses. We use density distribution models derived from a robust regional bird...

  2. Modeling the allocation and economic evaluation of PV panels and wind turbines in urban areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohammadi, S.; Vries, de B.; Schaefer, W.F.; Timmermans, H.

    2014-01-01

    A model for allocating PV panels and wind turbines in urban areas is developed. Firstly, it examines the spatial and technical requirements for the installation of PV panels and wind turbines and then evaluates their economic feasibilities in order to generate the cost effective electricity neutral

  3. IDENTIFICATION OF LANDSLIDES SUSCEPTIBILITY IN THE DOBRIC CATCHMENT AREA USING THE FREQUENCY RATE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROXANA VĂIDEAN

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The landslides susceptibility of the Dobric catchment area (Ilişua river. The territorial geomorfological investigation focuses mainly on the analysis of the present situation, as context of future events occurrence. The previous evolutionary context is secondary in place due also to the particular attention it has received so far. The significance of the knowledge regarding the present events and their evolution is explicit in the attempt to mitigate their impact on the built area and on the resources. The identification of areas characterized by maximum susceptibility in the landslides occurrence is absolutely necessary. The method which makes the identification of these areas possible is none other than the method considering the conditional factors, as well as the spatial distribution of the events that have already occurred. In this regard, the use of the frequency rate model is considered to be ideal.

  4. Software Quality Assurance Plan for GoldSim Models Supporting the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site Performance Assessment Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory J. Shott, Vefa Yucel

    2007-01-01

    This Software Quality Assurance Plan (SQAP) applies to the development and maintenance of GoldSim models supporting the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) performance assessments (PAs) and composite analyses (CAs). Two PA models have been approved by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office (NNSA/NSO) as of November 2006 for the PA maintenance work undertaken by National Security Technologies, LLC (NSTec). NNSA/NSO asked NSTec to assume the custodianship of the models for future development and maintenance. The models were initially developed by Neptune and Company (N and C)

  5. Software Quality Assurance Plan for GoldSim Models Supporting the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites Performance Assessment Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gregory J. Shott, Vefa Yucel

    2007-01-03

    This Software Quality Assurance Plan (SQAP) applies to the development and maintenance of GoldSim models supporting the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) performance assessments (PAs) and composite analyses (CAs). Two PA models have been approved by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office (NNSA/NSO) as of November 2006 for the PA maintenance work undertaken by National Security Technologies, LLC (NSTec). NNSA/NSO asked NSTec to assume the custodianship of the models for future development and maintenance. The models were initially developed by Neptune and Company (N&C).

  6. A high resolution hydrodynamic 3-D model simulation of the malta shelf area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Drago

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal variability of the water masses and transport in the Malta Channel and proximity of the Maltese Islands have been simulated by a high resolution (1.6 km horizontal grid on average, 15 vertical sigma layers eddy resolving primitive equation shelf model (ROSARIO-I. The numerical simulation was run with climatological forcing and includes thermohaline dynamics with a turbulence scheme for the vertical mixing coefficients on the basis of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM. The model has been coupled by one-way nesting along three lateral boundaries (east, south and west to an intermediate coarser resolution model (5 km implemented over the Sicilian Channel area. The fields at the open boundaries and the atmospheric forcing at the air-sea interface were applied on a repeating "perpetual" year climatological cycle. The ability of the model to reproduce a realistic circulation of the Sicilian-Maltese shelf area has been demonstrated. The skill of the nesting procedure was tested by model-modelc omparisons showing that the major features of the coarse model flow field can be reproduced by the fine model with additional eddy space scale components. The numerical results included upwelling, mainly in summer and early autumn, along the southern coasts of Sicily and Malta; a strong eastward shelf surface flow along shore to Sicily, forming part of the Atlantic Ionian Stream, with a presence throughout the year and with significant seasonal modulation, and a westward winter intensified flow of LIW centered at a depth of around 280 m under the shelf break to the south of Malta. The seasonal variability in the thermohaline structure of the domain and the associated large-scale flow structures can be related to the current knowledge on the observed hydrography of the area. The level of mesoscale resolution achieved by the model allowed the spatial and temporal evolution of the changing flow patterns, triggered by internal dynamics, to be followed in

  7. A high resolution hydrodynamic 3-D model simulation of the malta shelf area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Drago

    Full Text Available The seasonal variability of the water masses and transport in the Malta Channel and proximity of the Maltese Islands have been simulated by a high resolution (1.6 km horizontal grid on average, 15 vertical sigma layers eddy resolving primitive equation shelf model (ROSARIO-I. The numerical simulation was run with climatological forcing and includes thermohaline dynamics with a turbulence scheme for the vertical mixing coefficients on the basis of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM. The model has been coupled by one-way nesting along three lateral boundaries (east, south and west to an intermediate coarser resolution model (5 km implemented over the Sicilian Channel area. The fields at the open boundaries and the atmospheric forcing at the air-sea interface were applied on a repeating "perpetual" year climatological cycle.

    The ability of the model to reproduce a realistic circulation of the Sicilian-Maltese shelf area has been demonstrated. The skill of the nesting procedure was tested by model-modelc omparisons showing that the major features of the coarse model flow field can be reproduced by the fine model with additional eddy space scale components. The numerical results included upwelling, mainly in summer and early autumn, along the southern coasts of Sicily and Malta; a strong eastward shelf surface flow along shore to Sicily, forming part of the Atlantic Ionian Stream, with a presence throughout the year and with significant seasonal modulation, and a westward winter intensified flow of LIW centered at a depth of around 280 m under the shelf break to the south of Malta. The seasonal variability in the thermohaline structure of the domain and the associated large-scale flow structures can be related to the current knowledge on the observed hydrography of the area. The level of mesoscale resolution achieved by the model allowed the spatial and temporal evolution of the changing flow patterns, triggered by

  8. Using ANN and EPR models to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in urban area of Tabriz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Shakerkhatibi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Forecasting of air pollutants has become a popular topic of environmental research today. For this purpose, the artificial neural network (AAN technique is widely used as a reliable method for forecasting air pollutants in urban areas. On the other hand, the evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR model has recently been used as a forecasting tool in some environmental issues. In this research, we compared the ability of these models to forecast carbon monoxide (CO concentrations in the urban area of Tabriz city. Methods: The dataset of CO concentrations measured at the fixed stations operated by the East Azerbaijan Environmental Office along with meteorological data obtained from the East Azerbaijan Meteorological Bureau from March 2007 to March 2013, were used as input for the ANN and EPR models. Results: Based on the results, the performance of ANN is more reliable in comparison with EPR. Using the ANN model, the correlation coefficient values at all monitoring stations were calculated above 0.85. Conversely, the R2 values for these stations were obtained <0.41 using the EPR model. Conclusion: The EPR model could not overcome the nonlinearities of input data. However, the ANN model displayed more accurate results compared to the EPR. Hence, the ANN models are robust tools for predicting air pollutant concentrations.

  9. Simulation Models of Leaf Area Index and Yield for Cotton Grown with Different Soil Conditioners.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijun Su

    Full Text Available Simulation models of leaf area index (LAI and yield for cotton can provide a theoretical foundation for predicting future variations in yield. This paper analyses the increase in LAI and the relationships between LAI, dry matter, and yield for cotton under three soil conditioners near Korla, Xinjiang, China. Dynamic changes in cotton LAI were evaluated using modified logistic, Gaussian, modified Gaussian, log normal, and cubic polynomial models. Universal models for simulating the relative leaf area index (RLAI were established in which the application rate of soil conditioner was used to estimate the maximum LAI (LAIm. In addition, the relationships between LAIm and dry matter mass, yield, and the harvest index were investigated, and a simulation model for yield is proposed. A feasibility analysis of the models indicated that the cubic polynomial and Gaussian models were less accurate than the other three models for simulating increases in RLAI. Despite significant differences in LAIs under the type and amount of soil conditioner applied, LAIm could be described by aboveground dry matter using Michaelis-Menten kinetics. Moreover, the simulation model for cotton yield based on LAIm and the harvest index presented in this work provided important theoretical insights for improving water use efficiency in cotton cultivation and for identifying optimal application rates of soil conditioners.

  10. An evolutionary attractor model for sapwood cross section in relation to leaf area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westoby, Mark; Cornwell, William K; Falster, Daniel S

    2012-06-21

    Sapwood cross-sectional area per unit leaf area (SA:LA) is an influential trait that plants coordinate with physical environment and with other traits. We develop theory for SA:LA and also for root surface area per leaf area (RA:LA) on the premise that plants maximizing the surplus of revenue over costs should have competitive advantage. SA:LA is predicted to increase in water-relations environments that reduce photosynthetic revenue, including low soil water potential, high water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and low atmospheric CO(2). Because sapwood has costs, SA:LA adjustment does not completely offset difficult water relations. Where sapwood costs are large, as in tall plants, optimal SA:LA may actually decline with (say) high VPD. Large soil-to-root resistance caps the benefits that can be obtained from increasing SA:LA. Where a plant can adjust water-absorbing surface area of root per leaf area (RA:LA) as well as SA:LA, optimal RA:SA is not affected by VPD, CO(2) or plant height. If selection favours increased height more so than increased revenue-minus-cost, then height is predicted to rise substantially under improved water-relations environments such as high-CO(2) atmospheres. Evolutionary-attractor theory for SA:LA and RA:LA complements models that take whole-plant conductivity per leaf area as a parameter. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Waste area Grouping 2 Phase I remedial investigation: Sediment and Cesium-137 transport modeling report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clapp, R.B.; Bao, Y.S.; Moore, T.D.; Brenkert, A.L.; Purucker, S.T.; Reece, D.K.; Burgoa, B.B.

    1996-06-01

    This report is one of five reports issued in 1996 that provide follow-up information to the Phase I Remedial Investigation (RI) Report for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 2 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The five reports address areas of concern that may present immediate risk to public health at the Clinch River and ecological risk within WAG 2 at ORNL. A sixth report, on groundwater, in the series documenting WAG 2 RI Phase I results were part of project activities conducted in FY 1996. The five reports that complete activities conducted as part of Phase I of the Remedial Investigation (RI) for WAG 2 are as follows: (1) Waste Area Grouping 2, Phase I Task Data Report: Seep Data Assessment, (2) Waste Area Grouping 2, Phase I Task Data Report: Tributaries Data Assessment, (3) Waste Area Grouping 2, Phase I Task Data Report: Ecological Risk Assessment, (4) Waste Area Grouping 2, Phase I Task Data Report: Human Health Risk Assessment, (5) Waste Area Grouping 2, Phase I Task Data Report: Sediment and 137 Cs Transport Modeling In December 1990, the Remedial Investigation Plan for Waste Area Grouping 2 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory was issued (ORNL 1990). The WAG 2 RI Plan was structured with a short-term component to be conducted while upgradient WAGs are investigated and remediated, and a long-term component that will complete the RI process for WAG 2 following remediation of upgradient WAGs. RI activities for the short-term component were initiated with the approval of the Environmental Protection Agency, Region IV (EPA), and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC). This report presents the results of an investigation of the risk associated with possible future releases of 137 Cs due to an extreme flood. The results are based on field measurements made during storms and computer model simulations

  12. Fisheries Closed Areas Strengthen Scallop Larval Settlement and Connectivity Among Closed Areas and Across International Open Fishing Grounds: A Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Kimberley T. A.; Gentleman, W. C.; DiBacco, C.; Johnson, C. L.

    2015-09-01

    This study examined whether a measured increase in average body size of adult sea scallops inside three fishery closed areas on Georges Bank (GB), United States (US), was sufficient to increase larval supply to closed areas and open fishing areas in both US and Canadian areas of the Bank. The effects of adult scallop density-at-size and fecundity-at-size on egg production were compared among open and closed fishery areas, countries, and time periods before and after the closed areas were established. Estimated egg production was then used to define spawning conditions in a coupled biological-physical larval tracking model that simulated larval development, mortality, and dispersal. Results showed that order of magnitude increases in larval settlement after closure were facilitated by increases in size-dependant egg production inside and dispersal from Closed Areas I and II, but not Nantucket Lightship Closed Area. The distributions of both egg production and larval settlement became more uniform across the Bank, causing the relative contribution of Canadian larvae to US scallop aggregations to decrease after establishment of Closed Areas I and II. Decreases in small and medium-sized scallop density in Canada and decreases in large scallops over the US-Southern Flank after closure caused local declines in egg production but were not sufficient to negatively affect larval settlement at the regional scale. Our model suggests that the establishment of fishery closed areas on GB considerably strengthened larval supply and settlement within and among several adult scallop aggregations.

  13. Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dust Transport over Surface Mining Areas and Neighbouring Residential Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Gulikova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Projects focusing on spatio-temporal modelling of the living environment need to manage a wide range of terrain measurements, existing spatial data, time series, results of spatial analysis and inputs/outputs from numerical simulations. Thus, GISs are often used to manage data from remote sensors, to provide advanced spatial analysis and to integrate numerical models. In order to demonstrate the integration of spatial data, time series and methods in the framework of the GIS, we present a case study focused on the modelling of dust transport over a surface coal mining area, exploring spatial data from 3D laser scanners, GPS measurements, aerial images, time series of meteorological observations, inputs/outputs form numerical models and existing geographic resources. To achieve this, digital terrain models, layers including GPS thematic mapping, and scenes with simulation of wind flows are created to visualize and interpret coal dust transport over the mine area and a neighbouring residential zone. A temporary coal storage and sorting site, located near the residential zone, is one of the dominant sources of emissions. Using numerical simulations, the possible effects of wind flows are observed over the surface, modified by natural objects and man-made obstacles. The coal dust drifts with the wind in the direction of the residential zone and is partially deposited in this area. The simultaneous display of the digital map layers together with the location of the dominant emission source, wind flows and protected areas enables a risk assessment of the dust deposition in the area of interest to be performed. In order to obtain a more accurate simulation of wind flows over the temporary storage and sorting site, 3D laser scanning and GPS thematic mapping are used to create a more detailed digital terrain model. Thus, visualization of wind flows over the area of interest combined with 3D map layers enables the exploration of the processes of coal dust

  14. Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimation under a Unit Level Model with Applications in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nageena Nazir

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To studied Bayesian aspect of small area estimation using Unit level model. In this paper we proposed and evaluated new prior distribution for the ratio of variance components in unit level model rather than uniform prior. To approximate the posterior moments of small area means, Laplace approximation method is applied. This choice of prior avoids the extreme skewness, usually present in the posterior distribution of variance components. This property leads to more accurate Laplace approximation. We apply the proposed model to the analysis of horticultural data and results from the model are compared with frequestist approach and with Bayesian model of uniform prior in terms of average relative bias, average squared relative bias and average absolute bias. The numerical results obtained highlighted the superiority of using the proposed prior over the uniform prior. Thus Bayes estimators (with new prior of small area means have good frequentist properties such as MSE and ARB as compared to other traditional methods viz., Direct, Synthetic and Composite estimators.

  15. Modeling of photochemical air pollution in the Barcelona area with highly disaggregated anthropogenic and biogenic emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toll, I.; Baldasano, J.M.

    2000-01-01

    The city of Barcelona and its surrounding area, located in the western Mediterranean basin, can reach high levels of O 3 in spring and summertime. To study the origin of this photochemical pollution, a numerical modeling approach was adopted and the episode that took place between 3 and 5 August 1990 was chosen. The main meteorological mesoscale flows were reproduced with the meteorological non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MEMO for 5 August 1990, when weak pressure synoptic conditions took place. The emissions inventory was calculated with the EIM-LEM model, giving highly disaggregated anthropogenic and biogenic emissions in the zone studied, an 80 x 80 km 2 area around the city of Barcelona. Major sources of VOC were road traffic (51%) and vegetation (34%), while NO x were mostly emitted by road traffic (88%). However, emissions from some industrial stacks can be locally important and higher than those from road traffic. Photochemical simulation with the MARS model revealed that the combination of mesoscale wind flows and the above-mentioned local emissions is crucial in the production and transport of O 3 in the area. On the other hand, the geostrophic wind also played an important role in advecting the air masses away from the places O 3 had been generated. The model simulations were also evaluated by comparing meteorological measurements from nine surface stations and concentration measurements from five surface stations, and the results proved to be fairly satisfactory. (author)

  16. A Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Crashes at Mid-Blocks in Melbourne Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toran Pour Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pedestrian crashes account for 11% of all reported traffic crashes in Melbourne metropolitan area between 2004 and 2013. There are very limited studies on pedestrian accidents at mid-blocks. Mid-block crashes account for about 46% of the total pedestrian crashes in Melbourne metropolitan area. Meanwhile, about 50% of all pedestrian fatalities occur at mid-blocks. In this research, Partial Proportional Odds (PPO model is applied to examine vehicle-pedestrian crash severity at mid-blocks in Melbourne metropolitan area. The PPO model is a logistic regression model that allows the covariates that meet the proportional odds assumption to affect different crash severity levels with the same magnitude; whereas the covariates that do not meet the proportional odds assumption can have different effects on different severity levels. In this research vehicle-pedestrian crashes at mid-blocks are analysed for first time. In addition, some factors such as distance of crashes to public transport stops, average road slope and some social characteristics are considered to develop the model in this research for first time. Results of PPO model show that speed limit, light condition, pedestrian age and gender, and vehicle type are the most significant factors that influence vehicle-pedestrian crash severity at mid-blocks.

  17. Modifying Geometric-Optical Bidirectional Reflectance Model for Direct Inversion of Forest Canopy Leaf Area Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congrong Li

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Forest canopy leaf area index (LAI inversion based on remote sensing data is an important method to obtain LAI. Currently, the most widely-used model to achieve forest canopy structure parameters is the Li-Strahler geometric-optical bidirectional reflectance model, by considering the effect of crown shape and mutual shadowing, which is referred to as the GOMS model. However, it is difficult to retrieve LAI through the GOMS model directly because LAI is not a fundamental parameter of the model. In this study, a gap probability model was used to obtain the relationship between the canopy structure parameter nR2 and LAI. Thus, LAI was introduced into the GOMS model as an independent variable by replacing nR2 The modified GOMS (MGOMS model was validated by application to Dayekou in the Heihe River Basin of China. The LAI retrieved using the MGOMS model with optical multi-angle remote sensing data, high spatial resolution images and field-measured data was in good agreement with the field-measured LAI, with an R-square (R2 of 0.64, and an RMSE of 0.67. The results demonstrate that the MGOMS model obtained by replacing the canopy structure parameter nR2 of the GOMS model with LAI can be used to invert LAI directly and precisely.

  18. Modeling and Analysis of a Piezoelectric Energy Harvester with Varying Cross-Sectional Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maiara Rosa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the modeling and on the experimental verification of electromechanically coupled beams with varying cross-sectional area for piezoelectric energy harvesting. The governing equations are formulated using the Rayleigh-Ritz method and Euler-Bernoulli assumptions. A load resistance is considered in the electrical domain for the estimate of the electric power output of each geometric configuration. The model is first verified against the analytical results for a rectangular bimorph with tip mass reported in the literature. The experimental verification of the model is also reported for a tapered bimorph cantilever with tip mass. The effects of varying cross-sectional area and tip mass on the electromechanical behavior of piezoelectric energy harvesters are also discussed. An issue related to the estimation of the optimal load resistance (that gives the maximum power output on beam shape optimization problems is also discussed.

  19. Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in children from a holoendemic area in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krefis, Anne Caroline; Schwarz, Norbert Georg; Krüger, Andreas; Fobil, Julius; Nkrumah, Bernard; Acquah, Samuel; Loag, Wibke; Sarpong, Nimako; Adu-Sarkodie, Yaw; Ranft, Ulrich; May, Jürgen

    2011-02-01

    Climatic factors influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. They modify the abundance of mosquito populations, the length of the extrinsic parasite cycle in the mosquito, the malarial dynamics, and the emergence of epidemics in areas of low endemicity. The objective of this study was to investigate temporal associations between weekly malaria incidence in 1,993 children < 15 years of age and weekly rainfall. A time series analysis was conducted by using cross-correlation function and autoregressive modeling. The regression model showed that the level of rainfall predicted the malaria incidence after a time lag of 9 weeks (mean = 60 days) and after a time lag between one and two weeks. The analyses provide evidence that high-resolution precipitation data can directly predict malaria incidence in a highly endemic area. Such models might enable the development of early warning systems and support intervention measures.

  20. Site effect classification based on microtremor data analysis using a concentration-area fractal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adib, A.; Afzal, P.; Heydarzadeh, K.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to classify the site effect using concentration-area (C-A) fractal model in Meybod city, central Iran, based on microtremor data analysis. Log-log plots of the frequency, amplification and vulnerability index (k-g) indicate a multifractal nature for the parameters in the area. The results obtained from the C-A fractal modelling reveal that proper soil types are located around the central city. The results derived via the fractal modelling were utilized to improve the Nogoshi and Igarashi (1970, 1971) classification results in the Meybod city. The resulting categories are: (1) hard soil and weak rock with frequency of 6.2 to 8 Hz, (2) stiff soil with frequency of about 4.9 to 6.2 Hz, (3) moderately soft soil with the frequency of 2.4 to 4.9 Hz, and (4) soft soil with the frequency lower than 2.4 Hz.

  1. Site effect classification based on microtremor data analysis using concentration-area fractal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adib, A.; Afzal, P.; Heydarzadeh, K.

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study is to classify the site effect using concentration-area (C-A) fractal model in Meybod city, Central Iran, based on microtremor data analysis. Log-log plots of the frequency, amplification and vulnerability index (k-g) indicate a multifractal nature for the parameters in the area. The results obtained from the C-A fractal modeling reveal that proper soil types are located around the central city. The results derived via the fractal modeling were utilized to improve the Nogoshi's classification results in the Meybod city. The resulted categories are: (1) hard soil and weak rock with frequency of 6.2 to 8 Hz, (2) stiff soil with frequency of about 4.9 to 6.2 Hz, (3) moderately soft soil with the frequency of 2.4 to 4.9 Hz, and (4) soft soil with the frequency lower than 2.4 Hz.

  2. Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shield, Stephen Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dai, Zhenxue [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-08-18

    Meteorological inputs are an important part of subsurface flow and transport modeling. The choice of source for meteorological data used as inputs has significant impacts on the results of subsurface flow and transport studies. One method to obtain the meteorological data required for flow and transport studies is the use of weather generating models. This paper compares the difference in performance of two weather generating models at Technical Area 54 of Los Alamos National Lab. Technical Area 54 is contains several waste pits for low-level radioactive waste and is the site for subsurface flow and transport studies. This makes the comparison of the performance of the two weather generators at this site particularly valuable.

  3. Modeling of surface dust concentration in snow cover at industrial area using neural networks and kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeev, A. P.; Tarasov, D. A.; Buevich, A. G.; Shichkin, A. V.; Tyagunov, A. G.; Medvedev, A. N.

    2017-06-01

    Modeling of spatial distribution of pollutants in the urbanized territories is difficult, especially if there are multiple emission sources. When monitoring such territories, it is often impossible to arrange the necessary detailed sampling. Because of this, the usual methods of analysis and forecasting based on geostatistics are often less effective. Approaches based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) demonstrate the best results under these circumstances. This study compares two models based on ANNs, which are multilayer perceptron (MLP) and generalized regression neural networks (GRNNs) with the base geostatistical method - kriging. Models of the spatial dust distribution in the snow cover around the existing copper quarry and in the area of emissions of a nickel factory were created. To assess the effectiveness of the models three indices were used: the mean absolute error (MAE), the root-mean-square error (RMSE), and the relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE). Taking into account all indices the model of GRNN proved to be the most accurate which included coordinates of the sampling points and the distance to the likely emission source as input parameters for the modeling. Maps of spatial dust distribution in the snow cover were created in the study area. It has been shown that the models based on ANNs were more accurate than the kriging, particularly in the context of a limited data set.

  4. Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Cane

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs, are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project, which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to

  5. Modeled Oil and Gas Atmospheric Impacts in National Parks and Wilderness Areas in the Western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, T. M.; Barna, M. G.; Schichtel, B. A.; Vimont, J.; Moore, C. T.

    2014-12-01

    Oil and gas production in the Western United States has increased considerably over the past 10 years. While many of the still limited oil and gas impact assessments have focused on potential human health impacts, the typically remote locations of production in the Intermountain West suggests that the impacts of oil and gas production on national parks and wilderness areas (class 1&2 areas) could also be important. To evaluate this, we utilize the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) with two year-long modeling episodes representing 2008 and 2011, meteorology and emissions. The model inputs for the 2008 and 2011 episodes were generated as part of the West-wide Jump-start Air Quality Modeling Study (WestJumpAQMS) and Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) respectively. Both studies included a detailed assessment of oil and gas (O&G) emissions in Western States for the respective years. Each year-long modeling episode was run both with and without emissions from O&G production. The difference between these two runs provides an estimate of the contribution of the O&G production to air quality. These data were used to assess the contribution of O&G to the 8 hour average ozone concentrations, daily and annual fine particulate concentrations, annual nitrogen deposition totals and visibility in the modeling domain. We present the results for the class 1&2 areas in the Western US. We also present temporal trends of O&G impacts, differentiating between trends in urban and rural areas.

  6. Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, D.; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L. A.; Ronchi, C.

    2013-05-01

    The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs) runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project), which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present) were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to reproduce well the

  7. Land use change impacts on discharge analysis using SWAT model at Ciherang Pondok DAM catchment area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utamahadi, M. A.; Pandjaitan, N. H.; Rau, M. I.

    2018-05-01

    The prompt increase of population influenced the requirement for new regions to fulfill people’s primary needs. Its increased land use change and caused many impacts on the environment, including watersheds as well. Ciherang Pondok DAM catchment area is part of Cisadane watershed and was selected as the research area. This research aimed to analyse the water supply and water discharge change caused by the Urban Planning (RTRW) in 2020. The analysis was conducted using soil and water assessment tools (SWAT) model. Stages of this research were catchment area delineation, HRU identification, calibration and validation of models, and prediction of discharge and water demand. The result showed that RTRW of 2020 increased the maximum discharge of 1.6 m3/s and decreased the minimum discharge of 0.01 m3/s, hence the maximum and minimum discharge ratio increased 0.26% from 2016. Output discharge in 2020 at Ciherang Pondok Dam Catchment Area was classified as well, with discharge of 6.72 – 126.2 m3/s, and could fulfil water demand. For the best result, it is better to use climate data from weather stations inside the study area and it is required an improvement in data archiving system.

  8. Representation of fine scale atmospheric variability in a nudged limited area quasi-geostrophic model: application to regional climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, H.; Drobinski, P.; Dubos, T.

    2009-09-01

    In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate nudging time on the large and small scales of an idealized limited area model simulation. The limited area model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by its « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. Compared to a previous study by Salameh et al. (2009) who investigated the existence of an optimal nudging time minimizing the error on both large and small scale in a linear model, we here use a fully non-linear model which allows us to represent the chaotic nature of the atmosphere: given the perfect quasi-geostrophic model, errors in the initial conditions, concentrated mainly in the smaller scales of motion, amplify and cascade into the larger scales, eventually resulting in a prediction with low skill. To quantify the predictability of our quasi-geostrophic model, we measure the rate of divergence of the system trajectories in phase space (Lyapunov exponent) from a set of simulations initiated with a perturbation of a reference initial state. Predictability of the "global", periodic model is mostly controlled by the beta effect. In the LAM, predictability decreases as the domain size increases. Then, the effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model” approach. Two sets of experiments were performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic LAM where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. In the two sets of experiments, the best spatial correlation between the nudge simulation and the reference is observed with a nudging time close to the predictability time.

  9. Simple models for predicting leaf area of mango (Mangifera indica L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Ghoreishi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mango (Mangifera indica L., one of the most popular tropical fruits, is cultivated in a considerable part of southern Iran. Leaf area is a valuable parameter in mango research, especially plant physiological and nutrition field. Most of available methods for estimating plant leaf area are difficult to apply, expensive and destructive which could in turn destroy the canopy and consequently make it difficult to perform further tests on the same plant. Therefore, a non-destructive method which is simple, inexpensive, and could yield an accurate estimation of leaf area will be a great benefit to researchers. A regression analysis was performed in order to determine the relationship between the leaf area and leaf width, leaf length, dry and fresh weight. For this purpose 50 mango seedlings of local selections were randomly took from a nursery in the Hormozgan province, and different parts of plants were separated in laboratory. Leaf area was measured by different method included leaf area meter, planimeter, ruler (length and width and the fresh and dry weight of leaves were also measured. The best regression models were statistically selected using Determination Coefficient, Maximum Error, Model Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error and Coefficient of Residual Mass. Overall, based on regression equation, a satisfactory estimation of leaf area was obtained by measuring the non-destructive parameters, i.e. number of leaf per seedling, length of the longest and width of widest leaf (R2 = 0.88 and also destructive parameters, i.e. dry weight (R2 = 0.94 and fresh weight (R2= 0.94 of leaves.

  10. Conceptual model for simulating the water cycle of the Copenhagen area, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Jan; Christensen, Steen; Ladekarl, Ulla Lyngs

    2008-01-01

    A complete water cycle model has been constructed for the Copenhagen area (966 km2) in order to study the development of the water cycle during the period 1850-2003. The urban water cycle is quantified in terms of root zone water balance, water supply, waste water, storm water, groundwater flow......, and the interactions between these systems. The water cycle is simulated by combining a root-zone model, a grid distribution tool, and a modified Modflow-2000 model using existing flow packages and a new sewer package that simulates the interactions between ground water and sewers (or rain drains). Long time series...... cycle. It is also the hope that the model will provide a better and more complete overview of the consequences of different water management scenarios. The model concept and selected simulation results is presented....

  11. Characterization and spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Chen; Liu, Yaolin; Stein, Alfred; Jiao, Limin

    2015-02-01

    Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in China. In this study, we monitor and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system and spatial statistics. We use time-series data to explore the potential socio-economic driving forces behind urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions. The methodology is applied to the city of Wuhan, China, for the period from 1990 to 2013. The results reveal that the built-up land has expanded and has dispersed in urban clusters. Population growth, and economic and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl; however, when they have developed to certain levels, the area affected by construction in urban areas (Jian Cheng Qu (JCQ)) and the area of cultivated land (ACL) tend to be stable. Spatial regression models are shown to be superior to the traditional models. The interaction among districts with the same administrative status is stronger than if one of those neighbors is in the city center and the other in the suburban area. The expansion of urban built-up land is driven by the socio-economic development at the same period, and greatly influenced by its spatio-temporal neighbors. We conclude that the integration of remote sensing, a geographical information system, and spatial statistics offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and interactions among the districts in the sprawling metropolitan areas. Relevant regulations to control the urban sprawl process are suggested accordingly.

  12. Modelling the landslide area and sediment discharge in landslide-dominated region, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Tse-Yang; Huang, -Chuan, Jr.; Lee, Tsung-Yu; Chen, Yi-Chin; Jan, Ming-Young; Liu, Cheng-Chien

    2016-04-01

    Many studies have indicated the magnified increase of rainfall intensification, landsliding and subsequent sediment discharge due to the global warming effect. However, a few works synthesized the "chain reaction" from rainfall, landsliding to sediment discharge at the same time because of the limited observations of landslide area and sediment discharge during episodes. Besides, the sediment transport strongly depends on the sediment supply and stream power which interact conditionally. In this study, our goal is to build a model that can simulate time-series landslide area and subsequent sediment discharge. The synthesized model would be applied onto Tsengwen Reservoir watershed in southern Taiwan, where lots of landslides occur every year. Unlike other studies, our landslide model considers not only rainfall effect but also previous landslide status, which may be applied to landslide-dominated regions and explains the irrelevant relationship between typhoon rainfall and landslide area. Furthermore, our sediment transport model considers the sediment budget which couples transport- and supply-limited of sediment. The result shows that the simulated time-series landslide area and the sediment transport agree with the observation and the R2 are 0.88 and 0.56, respectively. Reactivated ratio of previous landslide area is 72.7% which indicates the high reoccurrence of historical landslide in landslide-dominated regions. We divided nine historical typhoons into three periods to demonstrate the effect of sediment supply/supply-limited condition upon sediment transport. For instance, the rainfall is smaller in period 3 than in period 1 but the sediment transport is higher in period 3 due to the catastrophic landslide (typhoon Morakot) during period 2. We argue that quantifying sediment transport should couple not only with water discharge but sediment budget, which is rarely considered in calculating sediment transport. Moreover, the parameterization of the controlling

  13. A normalization model suggests that attention changes the weighting of inputs between visual areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruff, Douglas A; Cohen, Marlene R

    2017-05-16

    Models of divisive normalization can explain the trial-averaged responses of neurons in sensory, association, and motor areas under a wide range of conditions, including how visual attention changes the gains of neurons in visual cortex. Attention, like other modulatory processes, is also associated with changes in the extent to which pairs of neurons share trial-to-trial variability. We showed recently that in addition to decreasing correlations between similarly tuned neurons within the same visual area, attention increases correlations between neurons in primary visual cortex (V1) and the middle temporal area (MT) and that an extension of a classic normalization model can account for this correlation increase. One of the benefits of having a descriptive model that can account for many physiological observations is that it can be used to probe the mechanisms underlying processes such as attention. Here, we use electrical microstimulation in V1 paired with recording in MT to provide causal evidence that the relationship between V1 and MT activity is nonlinear and is well described by divisive normalization. We then use the normalization model and recording and microstimulation experiments to show that the attention dependence of V1-MT correlations is better explained by a mechanism in which attention changes the weights of connections between V1 and MT than by a mechanism that modulates responses in either area. Our study shows that normalization can explain interactions between neurons in different areas and provides a framework for using multiarea recording and stimulation to probe the neural mechanisms underlying neuronal computations.

  14. Model to predict radiological consequences of transportation accidents involving dispersal of radioactive material in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.M.; Daniel, S.L.

    1978-01-01

    The analysis of accidental releases of radioactive material which may result from transportation accidents in high-density urban areas is influenced by several urban characteristics which make computer simulation the calculational method of choice. These urban features fall into four categories. Each of these categories contains time- and location-dependent parameters which must be coupled to the actual time and location of the release in the calculation of the anticipated radiological consequences. Due to the large number of dependent parameters a computer model, METRAN, has been developed to quantify these radiological consequences. Rather than attempt to describe an urban area as a single entity, a specific urban area is subdivided into a set of cells of fixed size to permit more detailed characterization. Initially, the study area is subdivided into a set of 2-dimensional cells. A uniform set of time-dependent physical characteristics which describe the land use, population distribution, traffic density, etc., within that cell are then computed from various data sources. The METRAN code incorporates several details of urban areas. A principal limitation of the analysis is the limited availability of accurate information to use as input data. Although the code was originally developed to analyze dispersal of radioactive material, it is currently being evaluated for use in analyzing the effects of dispersal of other hazardous materials in both urban and rural areas

  15. Helicopter electromagnetic survey of the Model Land Area, Southeastern Miami-Dade County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitterman, David V.; Deszcz-Pan, Maria; Prinos, Scott T.

    2012-01-01

    This report describes a helicopter electromagnetic survey flown over the Model Land Area in southeastern Miami-Dade County, Florida, to map saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer. The survey, which is located south and east of Florida City, Florida, covers an area of 115 square kilometers with a flight-line spacing of 400 meters. A five-frequency, horizontal, coplanar bird with frequencies ranging from 400 to 100,000 Hertz was used. The data were interpreted using differential resistivity analysis and inversion to produce cross sections and resistivity depth-slice maps. The depth of investigation is as deep as 100 meters in freshwater-saturated portions of the Biscayne aquifer and the depth diminishes to about 50 meters in areas that are intruded by saltwater. The results compare favorably with ground-based, time-domain electromagnetic soundings and induction logs from observation wells in the area. The base of a high-resistivity, freshwater-saturated zone mapped in the northern 2 kilometers of the survey area corresponds quite well with the base of the surficial aquifer that has been determined by drilling. In general, saltwater in the survey area extends 9 to 12 kilometers inland from the coast; however, there is a long nose of saltwater centered along the Card Sound Road Canal that extends 15 kilometers inland. The cause of this preferential intrusion is likely due to uncontrolled surface flow along the canal and subsequent leakage of saltwater into the aquifer. Saltwater also extends farther inland in the area between U.S. Highway 1 and Card Sound Road than it does to the west of this area. Until 1944, a railroad grade occupied the current location of U.S. Highway 1. Borrow ditches associated with the railroad grade connected to Barnes Sound and allowed saltwater to flow during droughts and storm surges to within a few kilometers of Florida City. Relicts of this saltwater that settled to the bottom of the Biscayne aquifer can be seen in the helicopter

  16. Modified two-fluid model for the two-group interfacial area transport equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Xiaodong; Ishii, Mamoru; Kelly, Joseph M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a modified two-fluid model that is ready to be applied in the approach of the two-group interfacial area transport equation. The two-group interfacial area transport equation was developed to provide a mechanistic constitutive relation for the interfacial area concentration in the two-fluid model. In the two-group transport equation, bubbles are categorized into two groups: spherical/distorted bubbles as Group 1 while cap/slug/churn-turbulent bubbles as Group 2. Therefore, this transport equation can be employed in the flow regimes spanning from bubbly, cap bubbly, slug to churn-turbulent flows. However, the introduction of the two groups of bubbles requires two gas velocity fields. Yet it is not practical to solve two momentum equations for the gas phase alone. In the current modified two-fluid model, a simplified approach is proposed. The momentum equation for the averaged velocity of both Group-1 and Group-2 bubbles is retained. By doing so, the velocity difference between Group-1 and Group-2 bubbles needs to be determined. This may be made either based on simplified momentum equations for both Group-1 and Group-2 bubbles or by a modified drift-flux model

  17. Modeling Urban Collaborative Growth Dynamics Using a Multiscale Simulation Model for the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Yu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban agglomeration has become the predominant form of urbanization in China. In this process, spatial interaction evidently played a significant role in promoting the collaborative development of these correlated cities. The traditional urban model’s focus on individual cities should be transformed to an urban system model. In this study, a multi-scale simulation model has been proposed to simulate the agglomeration development process of the Wuhan urban agglomeration area by embedding the multi-scale spatial interaction into the transition rule system of cellular automata (CA. A system dynamic model was used to predict the demand for new urban land at an aggregated urban agglomeration area scale. A data field approach was adopted to measuring the interaction of intercity at city scale. Neighborhood interaction was interpreted with a logistic regression method at the land parcel scale. Land use data from 1995, 2005, and 2015 were used to calibrate and evaluate the model. The simulation results show that there has been continuing urban growth in the Wuhan urban agglomeration area from 1995 to 2020. Although extension-sprawl was the predominant pattern of urban spatial expansion, the trend of extensive growth to intensive growth is clear during the entire period. The spatial interaction among these cities has been reinforced, which guided the collaborative development and formed the regional urban system network.

  18. Models for leaf area estimation in dwarf pigeon pea by leaf dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Vieira Pezzini

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aims to determine the most suitable model to estimate the leaf area of dwarf pigeon pea in function of the leaf central leaflet dimension. Six samplings of 200 leaves were performed in the first experiment, at 36, 42, 50, 56, 64, and 72 days after emergence (DAE. In the second experiment, seven samplings of 200 leaves were performed at 29, 36, 43, 49, 57, 65, and 70 DAE, totaling 2600 leaves. The length (L and width (W of the central leaflet were measured in all leaves composed by left, central, and right leaflets, the product of length times width (LW was calculated, and the leaf area (Y – sum of left, central, and right leaflet areas was determined by digital images. Linear, power, quadratic, and cubic models of Y as function of L, W, and LW were built using data from the second experiment. Leaves from the first experiment were used to validate the models. In dwarf pigeon pea, the linear (Ŷ = – 0.4088 + 1.6669x, R2 = 0.9790 is preferable, but power (Ŷ = 1.6097x1.0065, R2 = 0.9766, quadratic (Ŷ = – 0.3625 + 1.663x + 0.00007x2, R2 = 0.9790, and cubic (Ŷ = 0.7216 + 1.522x + 0.005x2 – 5E–05x3, R2 = 0.9791 models in function of LW are also suitable to estimate the leaf area obtained by digital images. The power model (Ŷ = 5.2508x1.7868, R2 = 0.95 based on the central leaflet width is less laborious because requires only one variable, but it presents accuracy reduction.

  19. Critical Source Area Delineation: The representation of hydrology in effective erosion modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, A.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E. S.; Boylan, R. D.

    2017-12-01

    Despite decades of conservation and millions of conservation dollars, nonpoint source sediment loading associated with agricultural disturbance continues to be a significant problem in many parts of the world. Local and national conservation organizations are interested in targeting critical source areas for control strategy implementation. Currently, conservation practices are selected and located based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) hillslope erosion modeling, and the National Resource Conservation Service will soon be transiting to the Watershed Erosion Predict Project (WEPP) model for the same purpose. We present an assessment of critical source areas targeted with RUSLE, WEPP and a regionally validated hydrology model, the Soil Moisture Routing (SMR) model, to compare the location of critical areas for sediment loading and the effectiveness of control strategies. The three models are compared for the Palouse dryland cropping region of the inland northwest, with un-calibrated analyses of the Kamiache watershed using publicly available soils, land-use and long-term simulated climate data. Critical source areas were mapped and the side-by-side comparison exposes the differences in the location and timing of runoff and erosion predictions. RUSLE results appear most sensitive to slope driving processes associated with infiltration excess. SMR captured saturation excess driven runoff events located at the toe slope position, while WEPP was able to capture both infiltration excess and saturation excess processes depending on soil type and management. A methodology is presented for down-scaling basin level screening to the hillslope management scale for local control strategies. Information on the location of runoff and erosion, driven by the runoff mechanism, is critical for effective treatment and conservation.

  20. Modelling past hydrology of an interfluve area in the Campine region (NE Belgium)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leterme, Bertrand; Beerten, Koen; Gedeon, Matej; Vandersteen, Katrijn

    2015-04-01

    This study aims at hydrological model verification of a small lowland interfluve area (18.6 km²) in NE Belgium, for conditions that are different than today. We compare the current state with five reference periods in the past (AD 1500, 1770, 1854, 1909 and 1961) representing important stages of landscape evolution in the study area. Historical information and proxy data are used to derive conceptual model features and boundary conditions specific to each period: topography, surface water geometry (canal, drains and lakes), land use, soils, vegetation and climate. The influence of landscape evolution on the hydrological cycle is assessed using numerical simulations of a coupled unsaturated zone - groundwater model (HYDRUS-MODFLOW). The induced hydrological changes are assessed in terms of groundwater level, recharge, evapotranspiration, and surface water discharge. HYDRUS-MODFLOW coupling allows including important processes such as the groundwater contribution to evapotranspiration. Major land use change occurred between AD 1854 and 1909, with about 41% of the study area being converted from heath to coniferous forest, together with the development of a drainage network. Results show that this led to a significant decrease of groundwater recharge and lowering of the groundwater table. A limitation of the study lies in the comparison of simulated past hydrology with appropriate palaeo-records. Examples are given as how some indicators (groundwater head, swamp zones) can be used to tend to model validation. Quantifying the relative impact of land use and climate changes requires running sensitivity simulations where the models using alternative land use are run with the climate forcing of other periods. A few examples of such sensitivity runs are presented in order to compare the influence of land use and climate change on the study area hydrology.

  1. Extended Analytic Linear Model of Hydraulic Cylinder With Respect Different Piston Areas and Volumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr KOŇAŘÍK

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Standard analytic linear model of hydraulic cylinder usually comes from assumptions of identical action piston areas on both sides of hydraulic cylinder (double piston rod and suitable operation point, which is usually chosen in the middle of piston. By reason of that volumes inside of cylinder are than same. Moreover for control of that arrangement of hydraulic cylinder, usually controlled by 4/3 servovalve, the same mount of flows comes in and comes out to each of chambers of hydraulic cylinder. Presented paper deal with development of extended form of analytic linear model of single piston rod hydraulic cylinder which respects different action piston areas and volumes inside of chambers of hydraulic cylinder and also two different input flows of hydraulic cylinder. In extended model are also considered possibilities of different dead volumes in hoses and intake parts of hydraulic cylinder. Dead volume has impact on damping of hydraulic cylinder. Because the system of hydraulic cylinder is generally presented as a integrative system with inertia of second order: eq , we can than obtain time constants and damping of hydraulic cylinder for each of analytic form model. The model has arisen for needs of model fractionation on two parts. Part of behaviour of chamber A and part of behaviour of chamber B of cylinder. It was created for the reason of analysis and synthesis of control parameters of regulation circuit of multivalve control concept of hydraulic drive with separately controlled chamber A and B which could be then used for.

  2. Automated identification of potential snow avalanche release areas based on digital elevation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bühler, Y.; Kumar, S.; Veitinger, J.; Christen, M.; Stoffel, A.; Snehmani

    2013-05-01

    The identification of snow avalanche release areas is a very difficult task. The release mechanism of snow avalanches depends on many different terrain, meteorological, snowpack and triggering parameters and their interactions, which are very difficult to assess. In many alpine regions such as the Indian Himalaya, nearly no information on avalanche release areas exists mainly due to the very rough and poorly accessible terrain, the vast size of the region and the lack of avalanche records. However avalanche release information is urgently required for numerical simulation of avalanche events to plan mitigation measures, for hazard mapping and to secure important roads. The Rohtang tunnel access road near Manali, Himachal Pradesh, India, is such an example. By far the most reliable way to identify avalanche release areas is using historic avalanche records and field investigations accomplished by avalanche experts in the formation zones. But both methods are not feasible for this area due to the rough terrain, its vast extent and lack of time. Therefore, we develop an operational, easy-to-use automated potential release area (PRA) detection tool in Python/ArcGIS which uses high spatial resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and forest cover information derived from airborne remote sensing instruments as input. Such instruments can acquire spatially continuous data even over inaccessible terrain and cover large areas. We validate our tool using a database of historic avalanches acquired over 56 yr in the neighborhood of Davos, Switzerland, and apply this method for the avalanche tracks along the Rohtang tunnel access road. This tool, used by avalanche experts, delivers valuable input to identify focus areas for more-detailed investigations on avalanche release areas in remote regions such as the Indian Himalaya and is a precondition for large-scale avalanche hazard mapping.

  3. Automated identification of potential snow avalanche release areas based on digital elevation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Bühler

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The identification of snow avalanche release areas is a very difficult task. The release mechanism of snow avalanches depends on many different terrain, meteorological, snowpack and triggering parameters and their interactions, which are very difficult to assess. In many alpine regions such as the Indian Himalaya, nearly no information on avalanche release areas exists mainly due to the very rough and poorly accessible terrain, the vast size of the region and the lack of avalanche records. However avalanche release information is urgently required for numerical simulation of avalanche events to plan mitigation measures, for hazard mapping and to secure important roads. The Rohtang tunnel access road near Manali, Himachal Pradesh, India, is such an example. By far the most reliable way to identify avalanche release areas is using historic avalanche records and field investigations accomplished by avalanche experts in the formation zones. But both methods are not feasible for this area due to the rough terrain, its vast extent and lack of time. Therefore, we develop an operational, easy-to-use automated potential release area (PRA detection tool in Python/ArcGIS which uses high spatial resolution digital elevation models (DEMs and forest cover information derived from airborne remote sensing instruments as input. Such instruments can acquire spatially continuous data even over inaccessible terrain and cover large areas. We validate our tool using a database of historic avalanches acquired over 56 yr in the neighborhood of Davos, Switzerland, and apply this method for the avalanche tracks along the Rohtang tunnel access road. This tool, used by avalanche experts, delivers valuable input to identify focus areas for more-detailed investigations on avalanche release areas in remote regions such as the Indian Himalaya and is a precondition for large-scale avalanche hazard mapping.

  4. Modeling of isothermal bubbly flow with interfacial area transport equation and bubble number density approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sari, Salih [Hacettepe University, Department of Nuclear Engineering, Beytepe, 06800 Ankara (Turkey); Erguen, Sule [Hacettepe University, Department of Nuclear Engineering, Beytepe, 06800 Ankara (Turkey); Barik, Muhammet; Kocar, Cemil; Soekmen, Cemal Niyazi [Hacettepe University, Department of Nuclear Engineering, Beytepe, 06800 Ankara (Turkey)

    2009-03-15

    In this study, isothermal turbulent bubbly flow is mechanistically modeled. For the modeling, Fluent version 6.3.26 is used as the computational fluid dynamics solver. First, the mechanistic models that simulate the interphase momentum transfer between the gas (bubbles) and liquid (continuous) phases are investigated, and proper models for the known flow conditions are selected. Second, an interfacial area transport equation (IATE) solution is added to Fluent's solution scheme in order to model the interphase momentum transfer mechanisms. In addition to solving IATE, bubble number density (BND) approach is also added to Fluent and this approach is also used in the simulations. Different source/sink models derived for the IATE and BND models are also investigated. The simulations of experiments based on the available data in literature are performed by using IATE and BND models in two and three-dimensions. The results show that the simulations performed by using IATE and BND models agree with each other and with the experimental data. The simulations performed in three-dimensions give better agreement with the experimental data.

  5. Modeling of isothermal bubbly flow with interfacial area transport equation and bubble number density approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sari, Salih; Erguen, Sule; Barik, Muhammet; Kocar, Cemil; Soekmen, Cemal Niyazi

    2009-01-01

    In this study, isothermal turbulent bubbly flow is mechanistically modeled. For the modeling, Fluent version 6.3.26 is used as the computational fluid dynamics solver. First, the mechanistic models that simulate the interphase momentum transfer between the gas (bubbles) and liquid (continuous) phases are investigated, and proper models for the known flow conditions are selected. Second, an interfacial area transport equation (IATE) solution is added to Fluent's solution scheme in order to model the interphase momentum transfer mechanisms. In addition to solving IATE, bubble number density (BND) approach is also added to Fluent and this approach is also used in the simulations. Different source/sink models derived for the IATE and BND models are also investigated. The simulations of experiments based on the available data in literature are performed by using IATE and BND models in two and three-dimensions. The results show that the simulations performed by using IATE and BND models agree with each other and with the experimental data. The simulations performed in three-dimensions give better agreement with the experimental data

  6. Simulation-Optimization Model for Seawater Intrusion Management at Pingtung Coastal Area, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P. S.; Chiu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    In 1970's, the agriculture and aquaculture were rapidly developed at Pingtung coastal area in southern Taiwan. The groundwater aquifers were over-pumped and caused the seawater intrusion. In order to remedy the contaminated groundwater and find the best strategies of groundwater usage, a management model to search the optimal groundwater operational strategies is developed in this study. The objective function is to minimize the total amount of injection water and a set of constraints are applied to ensure the groundwater levels and concentrations are satisfied. A three-dimension density-dependent flow and transport simulation model, called SEAWAT developed by U.S. Geological Survey, is selected to simulate the phenomenon of seawater intrusion. The simulation model is well calibrated by the field measurements and replaced by the surrogate model of trained artificial neural networks (ANNs) to reduce the computational time. The ANNs are embedded in the management model to link the simulation and optimization models, and the global optimizer of differential evolution (DE) is applied for solving the management model. The optimal results show that the fully trained ANNs could substitute the original simulation model and reduce much computational time. Under appropriate setting of objective function and constraints, DE can find the optimal injection rates at predefined barriers. The concentrations at the target locations could decrease more than 50 percent within the planning horizon of 20 years. Keywords : Seawater intrusion, groundwater management, numerical model, artificial neural networks, differential evolution

  7. Structure of receptive fields in a computational model of area 3b of primary sensory cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detorakis, Georgios Is; Rougier, Nicolas P

    2014-01-01

    In a previous work, we introduced a computational model of area 3b which is built upon the neural field theory and receives input from a simplified model of the index distal finger pad populated by a random set of touch receptors (Merkell cells). This model has been shown to be able to self-organize following the random stimulation of the finger pad model and to cope, to some extent, with cortical or skin lesions. The main hypothesis of the model is that learning of skin representations occurs at the thalamo-cortical level while cortico-cortical connections serve a stereotyped competition mechanism that shapes the receptive fields. To further assess this hypothesis and the validity of the model, we reproduced in this article the exact experimental protocol of DiCarlo et al. that has been used to examine the structure of receptive fields in area 3b of the primary somatosensory cortex. Using the same analysis toolset, the model yields consistent results, having most of the receptive fields to contain a single region of excitation and one to several regions of inhibition. We further proceeded our study using a dynamic competition that deeply influences the formation of the receptive fields. We hypothesized this dynamic competition to correspond to some form of somatosensory attention that may help to precisely shape the receptive fields. To test this hypothesis, we designed a protocol where an arbitrary region of interest is delineated on the index distal finger pad and we either (1) instructed explicitly the model to attend to this region (simulating an attentional signal) (2) preferentially trained the model on this region or (3) combined the two aforementioned protocols simultaneously. Results tend to confirm that dynamic competition leads to shrunken receptive fields and its joint interaction with intensive training promotes a massive receptive fields migration and shrinkage.

  8. Structure of Receptive Fields in a Computational Model of Area 3b of Primary Sensory Cortex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgios eDetorakis

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In a previous work, we introduced a computational model of area 3b which is built upon the neural field theory and receives input from a simplified model of the index distal finger pad populated by a random set of touch receptors(Merkell cells. This model has been shown to be able to self-organize following the random stimulation of the finger pad model and to cope, to some extent, with cortical or skin lesions. The main hypothesis of the model is that learning of skin representations occurs at the thalamo-cortical level while cortico-cortical connections serve a stereotyped competition mechanism that shapes the receptive fields. To further assess this hypothesis and the validity of the model, we reproduced in this article the exact experimental protocol of DiCarlo et al. that has been used to examine the structure of receptive fields in area 3b of the primary somatosensory cortex. Using the same analysis toolset, the model yields consistent results, having most of the receptive fields to contain a single region of excitation and one to severalregions of inhibition. We further proceeded our study using a dynamic competition that deeply influences the formation of the receptive fields. We hypothesized this dynamic competition to correspond to some form of somatosensory attention that may help to precisely shape the receptive fields. To test this hypothesis, we designed a protocol where an arbitrary region of interest is delineated on the index distal finger pad and we either (1 instructed explicitly the model to attend to this region (simulating an attentional signal (2 preferentially trained the model on this region or (3combined the two aforementioned protocols simultaneously. Results tend to confirm that dynamic competition leads to shrunken receptive fields and its joint interaction with intensive training promotes a massive receptive fields migration and shrinkage.

  9. A mathematical model for leak location and leak area determination in pipeline networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oyedokun O.I.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Prompt leak location and leak area determination in oil and gas pipeline installations is an indispensable approach to controlling petroleum products wastages in pipes. However, there is an evident lack of literature information on this subject. In this paper, we modelled leak location detection and leak area determination in pipes by applying two methodologies and gave an illustrative example using simulated data with the aid of Matlab. A comparison of these two approaches resulted in an error of 6.24%, suggesting that the closer the leak is to the measurement station, the lower will be the time interval between two successive waves that will pass through the leak and get to the measurement station. The relationship between the pipe area and coefficient of reflection is parabolic. This contribution is valuable to pipeline engineers in the economic control of leaks.

  10. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU WenBin; YANG Peng; MENG ChaoYing; SHIBASAKI Ryosuke; ZHOU QingBo; TANG HuaJun; SHI Yun

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions,while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally,the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline.The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  11. Development of a resuspension model for contaminated soils. Application to the Palomares area; Desarrollo de un modelo de resuspension de suelos contaminados. Aplicacion al area de Palomares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Olivares, A

    1993-07-01

    A model is presented which has been used to simulate the wind resuspension and transport of contaminated soil in the area surrounding the Palomares village, in Southern Spain. The model uses site specific data and some generic parameters as resuspension rate and deposition velocity. The model is able to predict the order of magnitude of the observed air concentration of activity. Some lines of research are suggested which could improve the understanding of the phenomena involved. (Author) 20 refs.

  12. COMPUTER MODELING OF HYDRODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AT BOUNDARIES OF WATER INTAKE AREA WITH FILTERING INTAKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boronina Lyudmila Vladimirovna

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Improvement of water intake technologies are of great importance. These technologies are required to provide high quality water intake and treatment; they must be sufficiently simple and reliable, and they must be easily adjustable to particular local conditions. A mathematical model of a water supply area near the filtering water intake is proposed. On its basis, a software package designated for the calculation of parameters of the supply area along with its graphical representation is developed. To improve the efficiency of water treatment plants, the authors propose a new method of their integration into the landscape by taking account of velocity distributions in the water supply area within the water reservoir where the plant installation is planned. In the proposed relationship, the filtration rate and the scattering rate at the outlet of the supply area are taken into account, and they assure more precise projections of the inlet velocity. In the present study, assessment of accuracy of the mathematical model involving the scattering of a turbulent flow has been done. The assessment procedure is based on verification of the mean values equality hypothesis and on comparison with the experimental data. The results and conclusions obtained by means of the method developed by the authors have been verified through comparison of deviations of specific values calculated through the employment of similar algorithms in MathCAD, Maple and PLUMBING. The method of the water supply area analysis, with the turbulent scattering area having been taken into account, and the software package enable to numerically estimate the efficiency of the pre-purification process by tailoring a number of parameters of the filtering component of the water intake to the river hydrodynamic properties. Therefore, the method and the software package provide a new tool for better design, installation and operation of water treatment plants with respect to filtration and

  13. Structural model of the Northern Latium volcanic area constrained by MT, gravity and aeromagnetic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gasparini

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The results of about 120 magnetotelluric soundings carried out in the Vulsini, Vico and Sabatini volcanic areas were modeled along with Bouguer and aeromagnetic anomalies to reconstruct a model of the structure of the shallow (less than 5 km of depth crust. The interpretations were constrained by the information gathered from the deep boreholes drilled for geothermal exploration. MT and aeromagnetic anomalies allow the depth to the top of the sedimentary basement and the thickness of the volcanic layer to be inferred. Gravity anomalies are strongly affected by the variations of morphology of the top of the sedimentary basement, consisting of a Tertiary flysch, and of the interface with the underlying Mesozoic carbonates. Gravity data have also been used to extrapolate the thickness of the neogenic unit indicated by some boreholes. There is no evidence for other important density and susceptibility heterogeneities and deeper sources of magnetic and/or gravity anomalies in all the surveyed area.

  14. Modelling approach for the rainfall erosivity index in sub-humid urban areas in northern Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touaibia, I.; Abderrahmane Guenim, N.; Touaibia, B.

    2014-09-01

    This work presents an approach for storm water erosivity index modelling in the absence of measurement in an urban area, in a sub-humid climate. In torrential storms, floods, loaded with sediments, obstruct storm water drainage. With the aim of estimating the amount of sediment that can be deposited on a stretch of road, adjacent to the study area, the erosivity index is determined from a count of 744 rain showers recorded over a period of 19 years. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) of Wischmeier and Smith is applied, where only the index of erosivity is calculated; it is based on the intensity of the rain starting the process of erosion in the basin. Functional relations are required between this factor and the explanatory variables. A power type regression model is reached, making it possible to bring a decision-making aid in absences of measurements.

  15. Modelling approach for the rainfall erosivity index in sub-humid urban areas in northern Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Touaibia

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an approach for storm water erosivity index modelling in the absence of measurement in an urban area, in a sub-humid climate. In torrential storms, floods, loaded with sediments, obstruct storm water drainage. With the aim of estimating the amount of sediment that can be deposited on a stretch of road, adjacent to the study area, the erosivity index is determined from a count of 744 rain showers recorded over a period of 19 years. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE of Wischmeier and Smith is applied, where only the index of erosivity is calculated; it is based on the intensity of the rain starting the process of erosion in the basin. Functional relations are required between this factor and the explanatory variables. A power type regression model is reached, making it possible to bring a decision-making aid in absences of measurements.

  16. Modelling the bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDF of sea areas polluted by oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Otremba

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the possibilities of modelling the bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF in sea areas polluted by oil. Three sea basin models are considered: a coastal one free of oil, one polluted by an oil film and one polluted by an oil emulsion. The following concentrations of oil were compared: for the film, 1 cm3 of oil per 1 m2 water surface, for the emulsion 1 cm3 of oil in 1 m3 of water. The optical properties of Romashkino crude oil were taken into consideration, as were various angles of incident solar light. The conversion of BRDFs into a directional distribution of the optical contrast of polluted areas is demonstrated.

  17. Hyperspectral water quality retrieval model: taking Malaysia inshore sea area as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tingwei; Zhang, Jie; Ma, Yi; Li, Jing; Lim, Boonleong; Roslinah, Samad

    2007-11-01

    Remote sensing technique provides the possibility of rapid and synchronous monitoring in a large area of the water quality, which is an important element for the aquatic ecosystem quality assessment of islands and coastal zones, especially for the nearshore and tourism sea area. Tioman Island of Malaysia is regarded as one of ten of the best islands in the world and attracts tourists from all over the world for its clear sea, beautiful seashore and charming scenery. In this paper, on the basis of in situ dataset in the study area, distribution discipline of water quality parameters is analyzed to find that phytoplankton pigment, rather than suspended sediment is the main water quality parameter in the study area; seawater there is clean but not very oligotrophic; seawater spectra contains distinct features. Then water quality hyperspectral retrieval models are developed based on in situ data to calculate the chlorophyll a concentration ([chl-a]), transparency (SD) with satisfactory performance. It's suggested that model precision should be validated further using more in-situ data.

  18. Modeling the dynamics of radionuclide concentration in animal derived products after an accident in tropical areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinhas, Denise M.; Rochedo, Elaine R.R.; Wasserman, Maria A.V.; Conti, Luiz F.C.

    2005-01-01

    Following an accidental release of radionuclides to the atmosphere with the contamination of large areas, a detailed and fast methodology to assess the prognosis of public exposure is needed to estimate radiological consequences and optimize decisions to the protection of the public. The German model ECOSYS has been chosen to integrate the SIEM - Integrated Emergency System, developed by IRD/CNEN to assess the doses to the public after an accidental contamination of rural areas. The use the model demands a considerable effort in adapting scenarios to fit the specific conditions of a location, considering the differences related to climate, environmental characteristics, agricultural calendar and practices, along with population diet. The area selected to start this adaptation considers the characteristics of the 50 km radius area surrounding the nuclear power plants at Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro. At a first stage, the concentration on vegetal food products has been studied. This work describes the methodology used to select scenarios and presents results of the dynamics of the predicted concentration of radionuclides in different kinds of animal derived food products. The work provides guidance to the need of radioecological research needed to improve the adequacy of the estimates to actual Brazilian scenarios. (author)

  19. Prospectivity Modeling of Karstic Groundwater Using a Sequential Exploration Approach in Tepal Area, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi, Fereydoun; Arab-Amiri, Ali Reza; Kamkar-Rouhani, Abolghasem; Yousefi, Mahyar; Davoodabadi-Farahani, Meysam

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this study is water prospectivity modeling (WPM) for recognizing karstic water-bearing zones by using analyses of geo-exploration data in Kal-Qorno valley, located in Tepal area, north of Iran. For this, a sequential exploration method applied on geo-evidential data to delineate target areas for further exploration. In this regard, two major exploration phases including regional and local scales were performed. In the first phase, indicator geological features, structures and lithological units, were used to model groundwater prospectivity as a regional scale. In this phase, for karstic WPM, fuzzy lithological and structural evidence layers were generated and combined using fuzzy operators. After generating target areas using WPM, in the second phase geophysical surveys including gravimetry and geoelectrical resistivity were carried out on the recognized high potential zones as a local scale exploration. Finally the results of geophysical analyses in the second phase were used to select suitable drilling locations to access and extract karstic groundwater in the study area.

  20. Evaluation of Water Resource Security Based on an MIV-BP Model in a Karst Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liying Liu

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of water resource security deserves particular attention in water resource planning and management. A typical karst area in Guizhou Province, China, was used as the research area in this paper. First, based on data from Guizhou Province for the past 10 years, the mean impact value–back propagation (MIV-BP model was used to analyze the factors influencing water resource security in the karst area. Second, 18 indices involving five aspects, water environment subsystem, social subsystem, economic subsystem, ecological subsystem, and human subsystem, were selected to establish an evaluation index of water resource security. Finally, a BP artificial neural network model was constructed to evaluate the water resource security of Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2014. The results show that water resource security in Guizhou, which was at a moderate warning level from 2005 to 2009 and a critical safety level from 2010 to 2014, has generally improved. Groundwater supply ratio, industrial water utilization rate, water use efficiency, per capita grain production, and water yield modulus were the obstacles to water resource security. Driving factors were comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste, qualifying rate of industrial wastewater, above moderate rocky desertification area ratio, water requirement per unit gross domestic product (GDP, and degree of development and utilization of groundwater. Our results provide useful suggestions on the management of water resource security in Guizhou Province and a valuable reference for water resource research.

  1. Application of a Groundwater Modeling Tool for Managing Hydrologically Connected Area in State of Nebraska, US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, R.; Flyr, B.; Bradley, J.; Pun, M.; Schneider, J.; Wietjes, J.; Chinta, S.

    2014-12-01

    Determination of the nature and degree of hydrologically connected groundwater and surface water resources is of paramount importance to integrated water management within the State of Nebraska to understand the impact of water uses on available supplies, such as depletion of streams and aquifers caused by groundwater pumping. The ability to quantify effects of surface water-groundwater hydrologic connection and interactions, is regarded as one of the most important steps towards effectively managing water resources in Nebraska and provides the basis for designating management areas. Designation of management areas allows the state and other management entities to focus various efforts and resources towards those projects that have the greatest impact to water users. Nebraska Department of Natural Resources (NDNR) developed a groundwater modeling tool, Cycle Well Analysis, to determine the areas defined to have a high degree of connectivity between groundwater and surface water (in accordance with the state regulations). This tool features two graphic user interfaces to allow the analysis to be fully compatible with most MODFLOW-based numerical groundwater models currently utilized by NDNR. Case studies showed that the tool, in combination of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), can be used to quantify the degree of stream depletion and delineate the boundary of hydrologically connected areas within different political boundaries and subbasins in Nebraska. This approach may be applied to other regions with similar background and need for integrated water management.

  2. Adapted strategic plannig model applied to small business: a case study in the fitness area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduarda Tirelli Hennig

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The strategic planning is an important management tool in the corporate scenario and shall not be restricted to big Companies. However, this kind of planning process in small business may need special adaptations due to their own characteristics. This paper aims to identify and adapt the existent models of strategic planning to the scenario of a small business in the fitness area. Initially, it is accomplished a comparative study among models of different authors to identify theirs phases and activities. Then, it is defined which of these phases and activities should be present in a model that will be utilized in a small business. That model was applied to a Pilates studio; it involves the establishment of an organizational identity, an environmental analysis as well as the definition of strategic goals, strategies and actions to reach them. Finally, benefits to the organization could be identified, as well as hurdles in the implementation of the tool.

  3. Stochastic modeling of total suspended solids (TSS) in urban areas during rain events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Luca; Krejci, Vladimir; Rauch, Wolfgang; Kreikenbaum, Simon; Fankhauser, Rolf; Gujer, Willi

    2005-10-01

    The load of total suspended solids (TSS) is one of the most important parameters for evaluating wet-weather pollution in urban sanitation systems. In fact, pollutants such as heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), phosphorous and organic compounds are adsorbed onto these particles so that a high TSS load indicates the potential impact on the receiving waters. In this paper, a stochastic model is proposed to estimate the TSS load and its dynamics during rain events. Information on the various simulated processes was extracted from different studies of TSS in urban areas. The model thus predicts the probability of TSS loads arising from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) in combined sewer systems as well as from stormwater in separate sewer systems in addition to the amount of TSS retained in treatment devices in both sewer systems. The results of this TSS model illustrate the potential of the stochastic modeling approach for assessing environmental problems.

  4. A Model of Self-Organizing Head-Centered Visual Responses in Primate Parietal Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mender, Bedeho M. W.; Stringer, Simon M.

    2013-01-01

    We present a hypothesis for how head-centered visual representations in primate parietal areas could self-organize through visually-guided learning, and test this hypothesis using a neural network model. The model consists of a competitive output layer of neurons that receives afferent synaptic connections from a population of input neurons with eye position gain modulated retinal receptive fields. The synaptic connections in the model are trained with an associative trace learning rule which has the effect of encouraging output neurons to learn to respond to subsets of input patterns that tend to occur close together in time. This network architecture and synaptic learning rule is hypothesized to promote the development of head-centered output neurons during periods of time when the head remains fixed while the eyes move. This hypothesis is demonstrated to be feasible, and each of the core model components described is tested and found to be individually necessary for successful self-organization. PMID:24349064

  5. Modeling the Joint Labor-Commute Engagement Decisions of San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Ory, David T.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  6. Construction of the seismic wave-speed model by adjoint tomography beneath the Japanese metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyoshi, Takayuki

    2017-04-01

    The Japanese metropolitan area has high risks of earthquakes and volcanoes associated with convergent tectonic plates. It is important to clarify detail three-dimensional structure for understanding tectonics and predicting strong motion. Classical tomographic studies based on ray theory have revealed seismotectonics and volcanic tectonics in the region, however it is unknown whether their models reproduce observed seismograms. In the present study, we construct new seismic wave-speed model by using waveform inversion. Adjoint tomography and the spectral element method (SEM) were used in the inversion (e.g. Tape et al. 2009; Peter et al. 2011). We used broadband seismograms obtained at NIED F-net stations for 140 earthquakes occurred beneath the Kanto district. We selected four frequency bands between 5 and 30 sec and used from the seismograms of longer period bands for the inversion. Tomographic iteration was conducted until obtaining the minimized misfit between data and synthetics. Our SEM model has 16 million grid points that covers the metropolitan area of the Kanto district. The model parameters were the Vp and Vs of the grid points, and density and attenuation were updated to new values depending on new Vs in each iteration. The initial model was assumed the tomographic model (Matsubara and Obara 2011) based on ray theory. The source parameters were basically used from F-net catalog, while the centroid times were inferred from comparison between data and synthetics. We simulated the forward and adjoint wavefields of each event and obtained Vp and Vs misfit kernels from their interaction. Large computation was conducted on K computer, RIKEN. We obtained final model (m16) after 16 iterations in the present study. For the waveform improvement, it is clearly shown that m16 is better than the initial model, and the seismograms especially improved in the frequency bands of longer than 8 sec and changed better for seismograms of the events occurred at deeper than a

  7. Modelling hydrological connectivity in burned areas. A case study from South of Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.; López-Vicente, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    Overland flow connectivity depends on the spatio-temporal interactions of hydrological and geomorphic processes as well as on the human footprint on the landscape. This study deals with the modelling of hydrological connectivity in a burned area with different levels of fire severity. Namely, the objectives are to: i) characterize and ii) modelling the pre- (PreF) and post-fire (PostF) scenarios, as well as iii) evaluate the effect of the vegetation changes due to the fire and the initial ...

  8. Extended Analytic Linear Model of Hydraulic Cylinder With Respect Different Piston Areas and Volumes

    OpenAIRE

    Petr KOŇAŘÍK

    2009-01-01

    Standard analytic linear model of hydraulic cylinder usually comes from assumptions of identical action piston areas on both sides of hydraulic cylinder (double piston rod) and suitable operation point, which is usually chosen in the middle of piston. By reason of that volumes inside of cylinder are than same. Moreover for control of that arrangement of hydraulic cylinder, usually controlled by 4/3 servovalve, the same mount of flows comes in and comes out to each of chambers of hydraulic cyl...

  9. Some models for electric power price clearing in liberalized market area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chogelja, Goran; Pavlov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents some of the basic models for electrical energy price clearing in liberalized market area and competition on level of consumption and level of production. As an example the Amsterdam power exchange APX (spot market) is given and some of another types of markets and methodology for pricing are presented. In detal 'clearing pricing mechanism in day athead market' from the Amsterdam power exchange is presented as well as the methodology for market balancing and financial clearing. (Original)

  10. Research Area 3: Mathematics (3.1 Modeling of Complex Systems)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-31

    Title: RESEARCH AREA 3: MATHEMATICS (3.1 Modeling of Complex Systems). Proposal should be directed to Dr. John Lavery Report Term: 0-Other Email ...Paolo Rosso Email : prosso@dsic.upv.es values of the profile characteristics taken by the users), intersection (they represent the relationship between...accuracy, especially when adding fully connected layers at the end of the network. This work has resulted in the writing of a manuscript for the Journal

  11. A GIS-based atmospheric dispersion model for pollutants emitted by complex source areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teggi, Sergio; Costanzini, Sofia; Ghermandi, Grazia; Malagoli, Carlotta; Vinceti, Marco

    2018-01-01

    Gaussian dispersion models are widely used to simulate the concentrations and deposition fluxes of pollutants emitted by source areas. Very often, the calculation time limits the number of sources and receptors and the geometry of the sources must be simple and without holes. This paper presents CAREA, a new GIS-based Gaussian model for complex source areas. CAREA was coded in the Python language, and is largely based on a simplified formulation of the very popular and recognized AERMOD model. The model allows users to define in a GIS environment thousands of gridded or scattered receptors and thousands of complex sources with hundreds of vertices and holes. CAREA computes ground level, or near ground level, concentrations and dry deposition fluxes of pollutants. The input/output and the runs of the model can be completely managed in GIS environment (e.g. inside a GIS project). The paper presents the CAREA formulation and its applications to very complex test cases. The tests shows that the processing time are satisfactory and that the definition of sources and receptors and the output retrieval are quite easy in a GIS environment. CAREA and AERMOD are compared using simple and reproducible test cases. The comparison shows that CAREA satisfactorily reproduces AERMOD simulations and is considerably faster than AERMOD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Multi-criteria model to support decision-making for the remediation of urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Luca, Christiano; Lopes, Ricardo T., E-mail: christiano_luca@hotmail.com, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Rochedo, Elaine R.R., E-mail: elainerochedo@gmail.com [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Diogo N.G.; Guimaraes, Jean R.D., E-mail: diogons@gmail.com, E-mail: jeanrdg@biof.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Instituto de Biofisica Carlos Chagas Filho; Rochedo, Pedro R.R., E-mail: rochedopedro@gmail.com [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de de Planejamento Energetico; Wasserman, Maria Angelica V., E-mail: mwasserman@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Under the environmental modeling Project of radioecology research area of IRD (CNEN), several tools have been developed to support post-emergency activities. Currently, a multi-criteria model is in development with the aim of supporting decision-making processes under the radiological protection point of view. At this stage, we are focusing on the decontamination of urban areas. The model includes five calculation modules: (1) averted doses to the public due to remediation procedures; (2) occupational exposure of remediation workers; (3) properties of the wastes generated by a remediation procedure; (4) classification of each procedure for a specific urban scenario based on previously calculated quantities; and, (5) multi-criteria rank calculation. The classification of procedures is based on two types of criteria previously defined, both also included as input data of the model. The first type, called Subjective Criteria, is based on experts' opinions collected through questionnaires. The second type, called Technical Criteria, is calculated according to the outputs of the three first modules of the program. The output of the model is a rank order list indicating the priority of procedures to use for each different type of urban environment. The use of results based on criteria and methods developed previously to the occurrence of a contamination event intends not only to provide an input to decision-making processes but also to improve public confidence on authorities responsible for the remediation decisions. (author)

  13. Power scaling and experimentally fitted model for broad area quantum cascade lasers in continuous wave operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suttinger, Matthew; Go, Rowel; Figueiredo, Pedro; Todi, Ankesh; Shu, Hong; Leshin, Jason; Lyakh, Arkadiy

    2018-01-01

    Experimental and model results for 15-stage broad area quantum cascade lasers (QCLs) are presented. Continuous wave (CW) power scaling from 1.62 to 2.34 W has been experimentally demonstrated for 3.15-mm long, high reflection-coated QCLs for an active region width increased from 10 to 20 μm. A semiempirical model for broad area devices operating in CW mode is presented. The model uses measured pulsed transparency current, injection efficiency, waveguide losses, and differential gain as input parameters. It also takes into account active region self-heating and sublinearity of pulsed power versus current laser characteristic. The model predicts that an 11% improvement in maximum CW power and increased wall-plug efficiency can be achieved from 3.15 mm×25 μm devices with 21 stages of the same design, but half doping in the active region. For a 16-stage design with a reduced stage thickness of 300 Å, pulsed rollover current density of 6 kA/cm2, and InGaAs waveguide layers, an optical power increase of 41% is projected. Finally, the model projects that power level can be increased to ˜4.5 W from 3.15 mm×31 μm devices with the baseline configuration with T0 increased from 140 K for the present design to 250 K.

  14. Multi-criteria model to support decision-making for the remediation of urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Luca, Christiano; Lopes, Ricardo T.; Silva, Diogo N.G.; Guimaraes, Jean R.D.

    2015-01-01

    Under the environmental modeling Project of radioecology research area of IRD (CNEN), several tools have been developed to support post-emergency activities. Currently, a multi-criteria model is in development with the aim of supporting decision-making processes under the radiological protection point of view. At this stage, we are focusing on the decontamination of urban areas. The model includes five calculation modules: (1) averted doses to the public due to remediation procedures; (2) occupational exposure of remediation workers; (3) properties of the wastes generated by a remediation procedure; (4) classification of each procedure for a specific urban scenario based on previously calculated quantities; and, (5) multi-criteria rank calculation. The classification of procedures is based on two types of criteria previously defined, both also included as input data of the model. The first type, called Subjective Criteria, is based on experts' opinions collected through questionnaires. The second type, called Technical Criteria, is calculated according to the outputs of the three first modules of the program. The output of the model is a rank order list indicating the priority of procedures to use for each different type of urban environment. The use of results based on criteria and methods developed previously to the occurrence of a contamination event intends not only to provide an input to decision-making processes but also to improve public confidence on authorities responsible for the remediation decisions. (author)

  15. Construction of the Geological Model around KURT area based on the surface investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Kyung Woo; Koh, Yong Kwon; Kim, Kyung Su; Choi, Jong Won

    2009-01-01

    To characterize the geological features in the study area for high-level radioactive waste disposal research, KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been performing several geological investigations such as geophysical surveys and borehole drillings since 1997. Especially, the KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel) constructed to understand the deep geological environments in 2006. Recently, the deep boreholes, which have 500 m depth inside the left research module of the KURT and 1,000 m depth outside the KURT, were drilled to confirm and validate the results from a geological model. The objective of this research was to investigate hydrogeological conditions using a 3-D geological model around the KURT. The geological analysis from the surface and borehole investigations determined four important geological elements including subsurface weathered zone, low-angled fractures zone, fracture zones and bedrock for the geological model. In addition, the geometries of these elements were also calculated for the three-dimensional model. The results from 3-D geological model in this study will be beneficial to understand hydrogeological environment in the study area as an important part of high-level radioactive waste disposal technology.

  16. Modelling technical snow production for skiing areas in the Austrian Alps with the physically based snow model AMUNDSEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanzer, F.; Marke, T.; Steiger, R.; Strasser, U.

    2012-04-01

    Tourism and particularly winter tourism is a key factor for the Austrian economy. Judging from currently available climate simulations, the Austrian Alps show a particularly high vulnerability to climatic changes. To reduce the exposure of ski areas towards changes in natural snow conditions as well as to generally enhance snow conditions at skiing sites, technical snowmaking is widely utilized across Austrian ski areas. While such measures result in better snow conditions at the skiing sites and are important for the local skiing industry, its economic efficiency has also to be taken into account. The current work emerges from the project CC-Snow II, where improved future climate scenario simulations are used to determine future natural and artificial snow conditions and their effects on tourism and economy in the Austrian Alps. In a first step, a simple technical snowmaking approach is incorporated into the process based snow model AMUNDSEN, which operates at a spatial resolution of 10-50 m and a temporal resolution of 1-3 hours. Locations of skiing slopes within a ski area in Styria, Austria, were digitized and imported into the model environment. During a predefined time frame in the beginning of the ski season, the model produces a maximum possible amount of technical snow and distributes the associated snow on the slopes, whereas afterwards, until to the end of the ski season, the model tries to maintain a certain snow depth threshold value on the slopes. Due to only few required input parameters, this approach is easily transferable to other ski areas. In our poster contribution, we present first results of this snowmaking approach and give an overview of the data and methodology applied. In a further step in CC-Snow, this simple bulk approach will be extended to consider actual snow cannon locations and technical specifications, which will allow a more detailed description of technical snow production as well as cannon-based recordings of water and energy

  17. A composite state method for ensemble data assimilation with multiple limited-area models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Kretschmer

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Limited-area models (LAMs allow high-resolution forecasts to be made for geographic regions of interest when resources are limited. Typically, boundary conditions for these models are provided through one-way boundary coupling from a coarser resolution global model. Here, data assimilation is considered in a situation in which a global model supplies boundary conditions to multiple LAMs. The data assimilation method presented combines information from all of the models to construct a single ‘composite state’, on which data assimilation is subsequently performed. The analysis composite state is then used to form the initial conditions of the global model and all of the LAMs for the next forecast cycle. The method is tested by using numerical experiments with simple, chaotic models. The results of the experiments show that there is a clear forecast benefit to allowing LAM states to influence one another during the analysis. In addition, adding LAM information at analysis time has a strong positive impact on global model forecast performance, even at points not covered by the LAMs.

  18. A revised conceptual hydrogeologic model of a crystalline rock environment, Whiteshell research area, southeastern Manitoba, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, D.R.; Brown, A.; Davison, C.C.; Gascoyne, M.; McGregor, R.G.; Ophori, D.U.; Scheier, N.W.; Stanchell, F.; Thorne, G.A.; Tomsons, D.K.

    1996-04-01

    A revised conceptual hydrogeologic model of regional groundwater flow in the crystalline rocks of the Whiteshell Research Area (WRA) has been developed by a team of AECL geoscientists. The revised model updates an earlier model developed in 1985, and has a much broader database. This database was compiled from Landsat and airborne radar images, geophysical surveys and surface mapping, and from analyses of fracture logs, hydraulic tests and water samples collected from a network of deep boreholes drilled across the WRA. The boundaries of the revised conceptual model were selected to coincide with the natural hydraulic boundaries assumed for the regional groundwater flow systems in the WRA. The upper and lower boundaries are the water table and a horizontal plane 4 km below ground surface. For modelling purposes the rocks below 4 km are considered to be impermeable. The rocks of the modelled region were divided on the basis of fracture characteristics into three categories: fractured zones (FZs); moderately fractured rock (MFR); and sparsely fractured rock (SFR). The FZs are regions of intensely fractured rock. Seventy-six FZs were selected to form the fault framework within the revised conceptual model. The physical rock/water properties of the FZs, MFR and SFR were selected by analysis of field data from hydraulic and tracer tests, laboratory test data and water quality data. These properties were used to define a mathematical groundwater flow model of the WRA using AECL's MOTIF finite element code (Ophori et al. 1995, 1996). (author). 29 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs

  19. Computational and Simulation Modeling of Political Attitudes: The 'Tiger' Area of Political Culture Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voinea, Camelia Florela

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In almost one century long history, political attitudes modeling research has accumulated a critical mass of theory and method. Its characteristics and particularities have often suggested that political attitude approach to political persuasion modeling reveals a strong theoretical autonomy of concept which entitles it to become a new separate discipline of research. Though this did not actually happen, political attitudes modeling research has remained the most challenging area – the “tiger” – of political culture modeling research. This paper reviews the research literature on the conceptual, computational and simulation modeling of political attitudes developed starting with the beginning of the 20th century until the present times. Several computational and simulation modeling paradigms have provided support to political attitudes modeling research. These paradigms and the shift from one to another are briefly presented for a period of time of almost one century. The dominant paradigmatic views are those inspired by the Newtonian mechanics, and those based on the principle of methodological individualism and the emergence of macro phenomena from the individual interactions at the micro level of a society. This period of time is divided in eight ages covering the history of ideas in a wide range of political domains, going from political attitudes to polity modeling. Internal and external pressures for paradigmatic change are briefly explained.

  20. Determining Characteristic Vegetation Areas by Terrestrial Laser Scanning for Floodplain Flow Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Jalonen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Detailed modeling of floodplain flows and associated processes requires data on mixed, heterogeneous vegetation at river reach scale, though the collection of vegetation data is typically limited in resolution or lack spatial information. This study investigates physically-based characterization of mixed floodplain vegetation by means of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS. The work aimed at developing an approach for deriving the characteristic reference areas of herbaceous and foliated woody vegetation, and estimating the vertical distribution of woody vegetation. Detailed experimental data on vegetation properties were gathered both in a floodplain site for herbaceous vegetation, and under laboratory conditions for 2–3 m tall trees. The total plant area (Atot of woody vegetation correlated linearly with the TLS-based voxel count, whereas the Atot of herbaceous vegetation showed a linear correlation with TLS-based vegetation mean height. For woody vegetation, 1 cm voxel size was found suitable for estimating both the Atot and its vertical distribution. A new concept was proposed for deriving Atot for larger areas from the point cloud attributes of small sub-areas. The results indicated that the relationships between the TLS attributes and Atot of the sub-areas can be derived either by mm resolution TLS or by manual vegetation sampling.

  1. Modelling of light pollution in suburban areas using remotely sensed imagery and GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalkias, C; Petrakis, M; Psiloglou, B; Lianou, M

    2006-04-01

    This paper describes a methodology for modelling light pollution using geographical information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology. The proposed approach attempts to address the issue of environmental assessment in sensitive suburban areas. The modern way of life in developing countries is conductive to environmental degradation in urban and suburban areas. One specific parameter for this degradation is light pollution due to intense artificial night lighting. This paper aims to assess this parameter for the Athens metropolitan area, using modern analytical and data capturing technologies. For this purpose, night-time satellite images and analogue maps have been used in order to create the spatial database of the GIS for the study area. Using GIS advanced analytical functionality, visibility analysis was implemented. The outputs for this analysis are a series of maps reflecting direct and indirect light pollution around the city of Athens. Direct light pollution corresponds to optical contact with artificial night light sources, while indirect light pollution corresponds to optical contact with the sky glow above the city. Additionally, the assessment of light pollution in different periods allows for dynamic evaluation of the phenomenon. The case study demonstrates high levels of light pollution in Athens suburban areas and its increase over the last decade.

  2. Forest fire effects on transpiration: process modeling of sapwood area reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaletz, Sean; Johnson, Edward

    2010-05-01

    Transpiration is a hydrological process that is strongly affected by forest fires. In crown fires, canopy fine fuels (foliage, buds, and small branches) combust, which kills individual trees and stops transpiration of the entire stand. In surface fires (intensities ≤ 2500 kW m-1), however, effects on transpiration are less predictable becuase heat transfer from the passing fireline can injure or kill fine roots, leaves, and sapwood; post-fire transpiration of forest stands is thus governed by fire effects on individual tree water budgets. Here, we consider fire effects on cross-sectional sapwood area. A two-dimensional model of transient bole heating is used to estimate radial isotherms for a range of fireline intensities typical of surface fires. Isotherms are then used to drive three processes by which heat may reduce sapwood area: 1) necrosis of living cells in contact with xylem conduits, which prevents repair of natural embolism; 2) relaxation of viscoelastic conduit wall polymers (cellulose, hemicelloluse, and lignin), which reduces cross-sectional conduit area; and 3) boiling of metastable water under tension, which causes conduit embolism. Results show that these processes operate on different time scales, suggesting that fire effects on transpiration vary with time since fire. The model can be linked with a three-dimensional physical fire spread model to predict size-dependent effects on individual trees, which can be used to estimate scaling of individual tree and stand-level transpiration.

  3. Integrated surface-subsurface water flow modelling of the Laxemar area. Application of the hydrological model ECOFLOW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sokrut, Nikolay; Werner, Kent; Holmen, Johan

    2007-01-01

    Since 2002, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) performs site investigations in the Simpevarp area, for the siting of a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The site descriptive modelling includes conceptual and quantitative modelling of surface-subsurface water interactions, which are key inputs to safety assessment and environmental impact assessment. Such modelling is important also for planning of continued site investigations. In this report, the distributed hydrological model ECOFLOW is applied to the Laxemar subarea to test the ability of the model to simulate surface water and near-surface groundwater flow, and to illustrate ECOFLOW's advantages and drawbacks. The ECOFLOW model area is generally characterised by large areas of exposed or shallow bedrock. The ECOFLOW modelling results are compared to previous results produced by MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 and PCRaster-POLFLOW, in order to check whether non-calibrated surface and subsurface water flows computed by ECOFLOW are consistent with these previous results. The analyses include quantification and comparison of inflow and outflow terms of the water balance, as well as analyses of groundwater recharge-discharge patterns. ECOFLOW is used to simulate a one-year non calibrated period, considering seven catchments (including three areas with direct runoff to the sea) within the Laxemar subarea. The modelling results show the ability of the model to produce reasonable results for a model domain including both porous media (Quaternary deposits) and discontinuous media (bedrock). The results demonstrate notable differences in the specific discharge between the considered catchments, with specific discharge values in the range 157-212 mm/year; the lowest value (the Lake Frisksjoen catchment) may however be erroneous due to numerical instability in the model. Overall, these results agree with specific discharge values computed by MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 and PCRaster-POLFLOW (190 and 128-186 mm

  4. Integrated surface-subsurface water flow modelling of the Laxemar area. Application of the hydrological model ECOFLOW

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sokrut, Nikolay; Werner, Kent; Holmen, Johan [Golder Associates AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2007-01-15

    Since 2002, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) performs site investigations in the Simpevarp area, for the siting of a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The site descriptive modelling includes conceptual and quantitative modelling of surface-subsurface water interactions, which are key inputs to safety assessment and environmental impact assessment. Such modelling is important also for planning of continued site investigations. In this report, the distributed hydrological model ECOFLOW is applied to the Laxemar subarea to test the ability of the model to simulate surface water and near-surface groundwater flow, and to illustrate ECOFLOW's advantages and drawbacks. The ECOFLOW model area is generally characterised by large areas of exposed or shallow bedrock. The ECOFLOW modelling results are compared to previous results produced by MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 and PCRaster-POLFLOW, in order to check whether non-calibrated surface and subsurface water flows computed by ECOFLOW are consistent with these previous results. The analyses include quantification and comparison of inflow and outflow terms of the water balance, as well as analyses of groundwater recharge-discharge patterns. ECOFLOW is used to simulate a one-year non calibrated period, considering seven catchments (including three areas with direct runoff to the sea) within the Laxemar subarea. The modelling results show the ability of the model to produce reasonable results for a model domain including both porous media (Quaternary deposits) and discontinuous media (bedrock). The results demonstrate notable differences in the specific discharge between the considered catchments, with specific discharge values in the range 157-212 mm/year; the lowest value (the Lake Frisksjoen catchment) may however be erroneous due to numerical instability in the model. Overall, these results agree with specific discharge values computed by MIKE SHE-MIKE 11 and PCRaster-POLFLOW (190 and 128

  5. Annual individual hygienic assessment of natural exposure doses of the Altai territory model areas population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Yu. Potseluev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal is to determine ionizing radiation natural sources exposure regularities of Altai Territory model areas population. The materials and methods. 11376 radon measurements, 1247 gamma radiation meas-urements in an open area and in residential and office buildings were performed, selection of 189 drinking water tests was carried out. Results. Complex radiation and hygienic examination of the region with the most large municipalities number with model areas allocation was conducted. The assessment of the Altai Territory population’s individual annual radiation doses from natural radionuclides has revealed a number of the regularities depending on the terrain’s ecological and geographical type. Following the research results, ranging the region territories taking into account of annual effective doses of the population from natural sources for 2009-2015 was carried out. The annual individual effective dose of the Altai Territory upland areas population presented by the highest values and ranges from 7.36 mSv / year to 8.19 mSv / year. Foothill regions of Altai and in Salair ridge are characterized by increased population exposure from natural sources. Here the dose ranges from 5.09 mSv / year to 6.22 mSv / year. Steppe and forest-steppe territories are characterized by the lowest level of the natural radiation which is ranging from 3.23 mSv / year to 4.11 mSv / year, that doesn’t exceed the all-Russian levels. Most of the hygienic radon equivalent equilibrium volume activity standards exceedances were registered in mountain and foothill areas buildings. A number of radon anomalies is revealed also in steppe areas. Med exceedances ranged from 203 ± 17.8 Bq / m3 to 480 ± 37.9 Bq / m3. Given the fact that most of these buildings belong to the administrative or educational institutions with an eight-hour working day, the dose of radiation for people there can be up to 10 mSv / year. Conclusion. Spreading of individual annual effective

  6. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  7. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  8. Spatially explicit modeling of conflict zones between wildlife and snow sports: prioritizing areas for winter refuges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braunisch, Veronika; Patthey, Patrick; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2011-04-01

    Outdoor winter recreation exerts an increasing pressure upon mountain ecosystems, with unpredictable, free-ranging activities (e.g., ski mountaineering, snowboarding, and snowshoeing) representing a major source of stress for wildlife. Mitigating anthropogenic disturbance requires the spatially explicit prediction of the interference between the activities of humans and wildlife. We applied spatial modeling to localize conflict zones between wintering Black Grouse (Tetrao tetrix), a declining species of Alpine timberline ecosystems, and two free-ranging winter sports (off-piste skiing [including snow-boarding] and snowshoeing). Track data (snow-sports and birds' traces) obtained from aerial photographs taken over a 585-km transect running along the timberline, implemented within a maximum entropy model, were used to predict the occurrence of snow sports and Black Grouse as a function of landscape characteristics. By modeling Black Grouse presence in the theoretical absence of free-ranging activities and ski infrastructure, we first estimated the amount of habitat reduction caused by these two factors. The models were then extrapolated to the altitudinal range occupied by Black Grouse, while the spatial extent and intensity of potential conflict were assessed by calculating the probability of human-wildlife co-occurrence. The two snow-sports showed different distribution patterns. Skiers' occurrence was mainly determined by ski-lift presence and a smooth terrain, while snowshoers' occurrence was linked to hiking or skiing routes and moderate slopes. Wintering Black Grouse avoided ski lifts and areas frequented by free-ranging snow sports. According to the models, Black Grouse have faced a substantial reduction of suitable wintering habitat along the timberline transect: 12% due to ski infrastructure and another 16% when adding free-ranging activities. Extrapolating the models over the whole study area results in an overall habitat loss due to ski infrastructure of

  9. Testing and intercomparison of model predictions of radionuclide migration from a hypothetical area source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, R.S.; Yu, C.; Zeevaert, T.; Olyslaegers, G.; Amado, V.; Setlow, L.W.; Waggitt, P.W.

    2008-01-01

    This work was carried out as part of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS program. One aim of the work was to develop scenarios for testing computer models designed for simulating radionuclide migration in the environment, and to use these scenarios for testing the models and comparing predictions from different models. This paper presents the results of the development and testing of a hypothetical area source of NORM waste/residue using two complex computer models and one screening model. There are significant differences in the methods used to model groundwater flow between the complex models. The hypothetical source was used because of its relative simplicity and because of difficulties encountered in finding comprehensive, well-validated data sets for real sites. The source consisted of a simple repository of uniform thickness, with 1 Bq g -1 of uranium-238 ( 238 U) (in secular equilibrium with its decay products) distributed uniformly throughout the waste. These approximate real situations, such as engineered repositories, waste rock piles, tailings piles and landfills. Specification of the site also included the physical layout, vertical stratigraphic details, soil type for each layer of material, precipitation and runoff details, groundwater flow parameters, and meteorological data. Calculations were carried out with and without a cover layer of clean soil above the waste, for people working and living at different locations relative to the waste. The predictions of the two complex models showed several differences which need more detailed examination. The scenario is available for testing by other modelers. It can also be used as a planning tool for remediation work or for repository design, by changing the scenario parameters and running the models for a range of different inputs. Further development will include applying models to real scenarios and integrating environmental impact assessment methods with the safety assessment tools currently

  10. Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling in a tropical area using different algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Fassnacht, Steven; Linh, Nguyen Hoang Khanh

    2018-01-01

    Hydrological modeling outputs are subject to uncertainty resulting from different sources of errors (e.g., error in input data, model structure, and model parameters), making quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling imperative and meant to improve reliability of modeling results. The uncertainty analysis must solve difficulties in calibration of hydrological models, which further increase in areas with data scarcity. The purpose of this study is to apply four uncertainty analysis algorithms to a semi-distributed hydrological model, quantifying different source of uncertainties (especially parameter uncertainty) and evaluate their performance. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was implemented for the watershed in the center of Vietnam. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed, and the model was calibrated. The uncertainty analysis for the hydrological model was conducted based on four algorithms: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI), Parameter Solution method (ParaSol) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of the algorithms was compared using P-factor and Rfactor, coefficient of determination (R 2), the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The results showed the high performance of SUFI and PSO with P-factor>0.83, R-factor 0.91, NSE>0.89, and 0.18model use for policy or management decisions.

  11. Modelling of rock mass response to glaciation in the Dounreay area, Scotland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Errington, M.

    1992-01-01

    This report presents the results of a modelling study undertaken to investigate the potential response of a faulted rock mass to glacial loading. The modelled rock mass was a 10X10X10 km region around Dounreay. This site was selected as one of the two locations under consideration by UK Nirex Ltd for a deep repository for the disposal of low and intermediate radioactive waste. The model selected for the study was 3DEC, a distinct element code which has been used in similar modelling studies in Sweden. A set of seven regional fractures and five rock types were identified in the region to be modelled. Properties for these discontinuities and media were derived from published information where possible or from data for similar regimes. A number of parameters were selected for sensitivity studies. The results of the study form a useful basis for assessing the extent of fracture movement which might be expected in the region modelled. Site-specific results cannot be extended to other areas but the results of the sensitivity study indicate those parameters which have a significant effect on the modelled behaviour of the rock mass and which would thus require site-specific determination. (Author)

  12. A Multi-area Model of a Physical Protection System for a Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2008-01-01

    A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. These efforts include the Nuclear Security Fund established by the IAEA in 2002 and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism which is launched by the USA and Russia in 2006. Without a regular assessment, the PPS might waste valuable resources on unnecessary protection or, worse yet, fail to provide adequate protection at critical points of a facility. Due to the complexity of protection systems, the assessment usually requires computer modeling techniques. Several Codes were developed to model and analyze a PPS. We also devised and implemented new analysis method and named it as Systematic Analysis of physical Protection Effectiveness (SAPE). A SAPE code consumes much time to analyze a PPS over a large area in detail. It is because SAPE uses meshes of an equal size for the analysis of a 2D map. The analysis is more accurate when the meshes of a smaller size are used. However, the analysis time is roughly proportional to the exponential of the number of meshes. Thus, the speed and accuracy is in a trade-off relation. In the paper, we suggest a multi-area model of a PPS for a vulnerability assessment to solve this problem. Using multi areas with different scales, we can accurately analyze a PPS near a target and can analyze it over a large area rather roughly

  13. Evaluation of MEDALUS model for desertification hazard zonation using GIS; study area: Iyzad Khast plain, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Egbal, Mahbobeh Nik

    2007-08-15

    In this study, the MEDALUS model along with GIS mapping techniques are used to determine desertification hazards for a province of Iran to determine the desertification hazard. After creating a desertification database including 20 parameters, the first steps consisted of developing maps of four indices for the MEDALUS model including climate, soil, vegetation and land use were prepared. Since these parameters have mostly been presented for the Mediterranean region in the past, the next step included the addition of other indicators such as ground water and wind erosion. Then all of the layers weighted by environmental conditions present in the area were used (following the same MEDALUS framework) before a desertification map was prepared. The comparison of two maps based on the original and modified MEDALUS models indicates that the addition of more regionally-specific parameters into the model allows for a more accurate representation of desertification processes across the Iyzad Khast plain. The major factors affecting desertification in the area are climate, wind erosion and low land quality management, vegetation degradation and the salinization of soil and water resources.

  14. High-resolution surface analysis for extended-range downscaling with limited-area atmospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei; Fernig, David

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution limited-area model (LAM) simulations are frequently employed to downscale coarse-resolution objective analyses over a specified area of the globe using high-resolution computational grids. When LAMs are integrated over extended time frames, from months to years, they are prone to deviations in land surface variables that can be harmful to the quality of the simulated near-surface fields. Nudging of the prognostic surface fields toward a reference-gridded data set is therefore devised in order to prevent the atmospheric model from diverging from the expected values. This paper presents a method to generate high-resolution analyses of land-surface variables, such as surface canopy temperature, soil moisture, and snow conditions, to be used for the relaxation of lower boundary conditions in extended-range LAM simulations. The proposed method is based on performing offline simulations with an external surface model, forced with the near-surface meteorological fields derived from short-range forecast, operational analyses, and observed temperatures and humidity. Results show that the outputs of the surface model obtained in the present study have potential to improve the near-surface atmospheric fields in extended-range LAM integrations.

  15. Mathematical modelling for distribution of heavy metals in estuary area of Red River (Vietnam)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, N. T. T.; Volkova, I. V.

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, the authors studied the features of spatial distribution of some heavy metals (Pb, Hg, As) in the system “suspended substance - bottom sediments” in the mouth area of the Red River (Vietnam). A mathematical modelling for diffusion processes of heavy metals in a suspended form, in bottom sediments and the spatial analysis for the results of these models were proposed and implemented. The studies were carried out during main hydrological seasons of 2014 - 2016 (during the flood and inter-natal periods). The propagation of heavy metals was modeled by solving the equation of turbulent diffusion. A spatial analysis of the content of heavy metals in the suspended form and in the bottom sediments was implemented by using the interpolation model in ArcGIS 10.2.2. The distribution of Pb, Hg, As concentration of the suspended form and bottom sediment phases in the estuary area of the Red River was characterized by maximum in the mouths of the branches and general decreasing gradient towards the sea. Maximum concentrations of Pb, Hg in suspended forms were observed in the surface layer of water at the river-sea barrier. The content of Hg and As in the estuary region of the Red River was observed in the following order: SSsurfBS.

  16. [Effect of agroforestry model on inhibition of Oncomelania snails in plateau mountainous area of Yunnan Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chun-Hua; Tang, Guo-Yong; Liu, Fang-Yan; Li, Kun

    2012-10-01

    To evaluate the effect of agroforestry models on the inhibition of Oncomelania snails in the plateau mountainous area of Yunnan Province. The experimental field was established at Sanying Village of Eryuan County, Yunnan Province, where the "Flourishing Forest and Controlling Snails Project" was implemented. Different drought crops (alfalfa, vegetables, broad bean, garlic, lettuce, celery, green onions, and wheat) were intercropped under walnut forest in experimental groups, and the crops were not intercropped under walnut forest in a control group. The growth of forest, the change of snails and short-term income of residents were investigated. Agroforestry models promoted the forestry growth and effectively inhibited the growth of snails. There was a little snail in one of the experimental group that forest was intercropped with alfalfa (the occurrence rate of frames with living snails was 3.33%, the average density of living snails was 0.004/0.1 m2, and the declining rates were both 50.00%). The snails were not found in other intercropped models. The income of residents in the experimental groups increased (900-6 800 Yuan per year) compared with that in the control group. The model of walnut forest intercropped with crops not only has the obvious effect on inhibition of snails, but also has good economic and ecological benefits in the plateau mountainous area of Yunnan Province.

  17. Estimation of Areal Mean Rainfall in Remote Areas Using B-SHADE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presented a method to estimate areal mean rainfall (AMR using a Biased Sentinel Hospital Based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE model, together with biased rain gauge observations and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM data, for remote areas with a sparse and uneven distribution of rain gauges. Based on the B-SHADE model, the best linear unbiased estimation of AMR could be obtained. A case study was conducted for the Three-River Headwaters region in the Tibetan Plateau of China, and its performance was compared with traditional methods. The results indicated that B-SHADE obtained the least estimation biases, with a mean error and root mean square error of −0.63 and 3.48 mm, respectively. For the traditional methods including arithmetic average, Thiessen polygon, and ordinary kriging, the mean errors were 7.11, −1.43, and 2.89 mm, which were up to 1027.1%, 127.0%, and 358.3%, respectively, greater than for the B-SHADE model. The root mean square errors were 10.31, 4.02, and 6.27 mm, which were up to 196.1%, 15.5%, and 80.0%, respectively, higher than for the B-SHADE model. The proposed technique can be used to extend the AMR record to the presatellite observation period, when only the gauge data are available.

  18. Modeling contribution of shallow groundwater to evapotranspiration and yield of maize in an arid area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xiaoyu; Huo, Zailin; Qu, Zhongyi; Xu, Xu; Huang, Guanhua; Steenhuis, Tammo S

    2017-02-21

    Capillary rise from shallow groundwater can decrease the need for irrigation water. However, simple techniques do not exist to quantify the contribution of capillary flux to crop water use. In this study we develop the Agricultural Water Productivity Model for Shallow Groundwater (AWPM-SG) for calculating capillary fluxes from shallow groundwater using readily available data. The model combines an analytical solution of upward flux from groundwater with the EPIC crop growth model. AWPM-SG was calibrated and validated with 2-year lysimetric experiment with maize. Predicted soil moisture, groundwater depth and leaf area index agreed with the observations. To investigate the response of model, various scenarios were run in which the irrigation amount and groundwater depth were varied. Simulations shows that at groundwater depth of 1 m capillary upward supplied 41% of the evapotranspiration. This reduced to 6% at groundwater depth of 2 m. The yield per unit water consumed (water productivity) was nearly constant for 2.3 kg/m 3 . The yield per unit water applied (irrigation water productivity) increased with decreasing irrigation water because capillary rise made up in part for the lack of irrigation water. Consequently, using AWPM-SG in irrigation scheduling will be beneficial to save more water in areas with shallow groundwater.

  19. Comparison of the SKI, SKB, and SKN geological and structural models of the Aespoe area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiren, S.A.

    1996-06-01

    Three sets of geological and structural models produced by three different groups are compared. The same set of basic data has been available to each of the groups. The models, all of which are 2 by 2 km by 1 km deep - or smaller, are based entirely on surface-based investigations. The modelled area is centered on the island of Aespoe, where SKB has built the Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) in plutonic bedrock at a depth of 500 m. SKB (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co) has recorded the basic data during the period 1986 to 1991, before starting the underground work. One of the main tasks in the SKB characterization of the HRL rock mass was to predict which of the geological structures will have the greatest rock-mechanical and hydraulic significance. The National Board for Spent Nuclear Fuel (SKN) constructed alternative models in 1992 to verify the SKB model. However, the SKN models were subsequently modified and converted into a hydrogeological model. The Swedish Nuclear Inspectorate (SKI) chose Aespoe as a hypothetical site for storage of nuclear waste in their SITE 94 project. The objective of the project is to assist SKI in their future review of SKB's application for a license to dispose of spent nuclear fuel underground. The agreement of the three models is found to be best where the density of information is greatest. The main difference between the two geological models is related to the inferred effects of block faulting on the rock type distribution. The correlation of moderately to gently inclined zones between the models is relatively poor at depth

  20. Comparison of the SKI, SKB, and SKN geological and structural models of the Aespoe area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tiren, S.A. [Geosigma AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    1996-06-01

    Three sets of geological and structural models produced by three different groups are compared. The same set of basic data has been available to each of the groups. The models, all of which are 2 by 2 km by 1 km deep - or smaller, are based entirely on surface-based investigations. The modelled area is centered on the island of Aespoe, where SKB has built the Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) in plutonic bedrock at a depth of 500 m. SKB (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co) has recorded the basic data during the period 1986 to 1991, before starting the underground work. One of the main tasks in the SKB characterization of the HRL rock mass was to predict which of the geological structures will have the greatest rock-mechanical and hydraulic significance. The National Board for Spent Nuclear Fuel (SKN) constructed alternative models in 1992 to verify the SKB model. However, the SKN models were subsequently modified and converted into a hydrogeological model. The Swedish Nuclear Inspectorate (SKI) chose Aespoe as a hypothetical site for storage of nuclear waste in their SITE 94 project. The objective of the project is to assist SKI in their future review of SKB`s application for a license to dispose of spent nuclear fuel underground. The agreement of the three models is found to be best where the density of information is greatest. The main difference between the two geological models is related to the inferred effects of block faulting on the rock type distribution. The correlation of moderately to gently inclined zones between the models is relatively poor at depth. 46 refs, 30 figs, 18 tabs.

  1. A model to relate wind tunnel measurements to open field odorant emissions from liquid area sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucernoni, F.; Capelli, L.; Busini, V.; Sironi, S.

    2017-05-01

    Waste Water Treatment Plants are known to have significant emissions of several pollutants and odorants causing nuisance to the near-living population. One of the purposes of the present work is to study a suitable model to evaluate odour emissions from liquid passive area sources. First, the models describing volatilization under a forced convection regime inside a wind tunnel device, which is the sampling device that typically used for sampling on liquid area sources, were investigated. In order to relate the fluid dynamic conditions inside the hood to the open field and inside the hood a thorough study of the models capable of describing the volatilization phenomena of the odorous compounds from liquid pools was performed and several different models were evaluated for the open field emission. By means of experimental tests involving pure liquid acetone and pure liquid butanone, it was verified that the model more suitable to describe precisely the volatilization inside the sampling hood is the model for the emission from a single flat plate in forced convection and laminar regime, with a fluid dynamic boundary layer fully developed and a mass transfer boundary layer not fully developed. The proportionality coefficient for the model was re-evaluated in order to account for the specific characteristics of the adopted wind tunnel device, and then the model was related with the selected model for the open field thereby computing the wind speed at 10 m that would cause the same emission that is estimated from the wind tunnel measurement furthermore, the field of application of the proposed model was clearly defined for the considered models during the project, discussing the two different kinds of compounds commonly found in emissive liquid pools or liquid spills, i.e. gas phase controlled and liquid phase controlled compounds. Lastly, a discussion is presented comparing the presented approach for emission rates recalculation in the field, with other approaches

  2. Dispersion Models to Forecast Traffic-related Emissions in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Scannapieco

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Down the centuries, a direct link had been developed between increase in mobility and increase in wealth. On the other hand, air emission of greenhouse gases (GHG due to vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines can be regarded as a negative pressure over the environment. In the coming decades, road transport is likely to remain a significant contributor to air pollution in cities. Many urban trips cover distances of less than 6 km. Since the effectiveness of catalytic converters in the initial minutes of engine operation is small, the average emission per distance driven is very high in urban areas. Also, poorly maintained vehicles that lack exhaust aftertreatment systems are responsible for a major part of pollutant emissions. Therefore in urban areas, where higher concentrations of vehicles can be easily found, air pollution represents a critical issue, being it related with both environment and human health protection: in truth, research in recent decades consistently indicates the adverse effects of outdoor air pollution on human health, and the evidence points to air pollution stemming from transport as an important contributor to these effects. Several institutions (EEA, USEPA, etc. focused their interest in dispersion models because of their potential effectiveness to forecast atmospheric pollution. Furthermore, air micropollutants such as Polycyclic Aromatic Compounds (PAH and Metallic Trace Elements (MTE are traffic-related and although very low concentrations their dispersion is a serious issue. However, dispersion models are usefully implemented to better manage this estimation problem. Nonetheless, policy makers and land managers have to deal with model selection, taking into account that several dispersion models are available, each one of them focused on specific goals (e.g., wind transport of pollutants, land morphology implementation, evaluation of micropollutants transport, etc.; a further aspect to be considered is

  3. Finding big shots: small-area mapping and spatial modelling of obesity among Swiss male conscripts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panczak, Radoslaw; Held, Leonhard; Moser, André; Jones, Philip A; Rühli, Frank J; Staub, Kaspar

    2016-01-01

    In Switzerland, as in other developed countries, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased substantially since the early 1990s. Most of the analyses so far have been based on sporadic surveys or self-reported data and did not offer potential for small-area analyses. The goal of this study was to investigate spatial variation and determinants of obesity among young Swiss men using recent conscription data. A complete, anonymized dataset of conscription records for the 2010-2012 period were provided by Swiss Armed Forces. We used a series of Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models to investigate the spatial pattern of obesity across 3,187 postcodes, varying them by type of random effects (spatially unstructured and structured), level of adjustment by individual (age and professional status) and area-based [urbanicity and index of socio-economic position (SEP)] characteristics. The analysed dataset consisted of 100,919 conscripts, out of which 5,892 (5.8 %) were obese. Crude obesity prevalence increased with age among conscripts of lower individual and area-based SEP and varied greatly over postcodes. Best model's estimates of adjusted odds ratios of obesity on postcode level ranged from 0.61 to 1.93 and showed a strong spatial pattern of obesity risk across the country. Odds ratios above 1 concentrated in central and north Switzerland. Smaller pockets of elevated obesity risk also emerged around cities of Geneva, Fribourg and Lausanne. Lower estimates were observed in North-East and East as well as south of the Alps. Importantly, small regional outliers were observed and patterning did not follow administrative boundaries. Similarly as with crude obesity prevalence, the best fitting model confirmed increasing risk of obesity with age and among conscripts of lower professional status. The risk decreased with higher area-based SEP and, to a lesser degree - in rural areas. In Switzerland, there is a substantial spatial variation in obesity risk

  4. Modelling air pollution transfers in the Fos-Sur-Mer area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dibi, Niagne Martin

    1985-01-01

    A 'puff' gaussian model with determined standard deviations based on transfer times of two classes of vertical stability of the atmosphere was developed in order to evaluate the atmospheric dispersion of industrial discharges in the Fos-sur-Mer area. This research was carried out within the framework of a large study for the processing of the data obtained during the measurement campaign organized by the European Communities. The model in its analytic form allows consideration of the main phenomena which modify the puff content during the transfer: reflectance, wet and dry deposition, physical-chemical transformation of the pollutant SO 2 . The model includes the site meteorological parameters measured in three dimensions (wind speed and direction at ground level and in altitude) and the characteristics of the different stacks. It can also calculate pollutions resulting from a short emission or from continuous emissions. Examples are presented. (author) [fr

  5. Channel Model on Various Frequency Bands for Wearable Body Area Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katayama, Norihiko; Takizawa, Kenichi; Aoyagi, Takahiro; Takada, Jun-Ichi; Li, Huan-Bang; Kohno, Ryuji

    Body Area Network (BAN) is considered as a promising technology in supporting medical and healthcare services by combining with various biological sensors. In this paper, we look at wearable BAN, which provides communication links among sensors on body surface. In order to design a BAN that manages biological information with high efficiency and high reliability, the propagation characteristics of BAN must be thoroughly investigated. As a preliminary effort, we measured the propagation characteristics of BAN at frequency bands of 400MHz, 600MHz, 900MHz and 2400MHz respectively. Channel models for wearable BAN based on the measurement were derived. Our results show that the channel model can be described by using a path loss model for all frequency bands investigated.

  6. Fire safety assessment for the fire areas of the nuclear power plant using fire model CFAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon

    2005-03-01

    Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to develop the assessment methodology for the fire growth and propagation. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST, to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. According to the analysis results, the cable integrity of the pump rooms is maintained and CCDP is reduced about two times than the old one. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will capable to reduce the uncertainty and to develop a more realistic model

  7. Improved capacity to evaluate changes in intestinal mucosal surface area using mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greig, Chasen J; Cowles, Robert A

    2017-07-01

    Quantification of intestinal mucosal growth typically relies on morphometric parameters, commonly villus height, as a surrogate for presumed changes in mucosal surface area (MSA). We hypothesized that using mathematical modeling based on multiple unique measurements would improve discrimination of the effects of interventions on MSA compared to standard measures. To determine the ability of mathematical modeling to resolve differences in MSA, a mouse model with enhanced serotonin (5HT) signaling known to stimulate mucosal growth was used. 5-HT signaling is potentiated by targeting the serotonin reuptake transporter (SERT) molecule. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor-treated wild-type (WT-SSRI), SERT-knockout (SERTKO), and wild-type C57Bl/6 (WT) mice were used. Distal ileal sections were H&E-stained. Villus height (VH), width (VW), crypt width (CW), and bowel diameter were used to calculate surface area enlargement factor (SEF) and MSA. VH alone for SERTKO and SSRI was significantly increased compared to WT, without a difference between SERTKO and WT-SSRI. VW and CW were significantly decreased for both SERTKO and WT-SSRI compared to WT, and VW for WT-SSRI was also decreased compared to SERTKO. These changes increased SEF and MSA for SERTKO and WT-SSRI compared to WT. Additionally, SEF and MSA were significantly increased for WT-SSRI compared to SERTKO. Mathematical modeling provides a valuable tool for differentiating changes in intestinal MSA. This more comprehensive assessment of surface area does not appear to correlate linearly with standard morphometric measures and represents a more comprehensive method for discriminating between therapies aimed at increasing functional intestinal mucosa. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Shear-wave velocity models and seismic sources in Campanian volcanic areas: Vesuvius and Phlegraean fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guidarelli, M; Zille, A; Sarao, A [Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Universita degli Studi di Trieste, Trieste (Italy); Natale, M; Nunziata, C [Dipartimento di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Universita di Napoli ' Federico II' , Napoli (Italy); Panza, G F [Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Universita degli Studi di Trieste, Trieste (Italy); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)

    2006-12-15

    This chapter summarizes a comparative study of shear-wave velocity models and seismic sources in the Campanian volcanic areas of Vesuvius and Phlegraean Fields. These velocity models were obtained through the nonlinear inversion of surface-wave tomography data, using as a priori constraints the relevant information available in the literature. Local group velocity data were obtained by means of the frequency-time analysis for the time period between 0.3 and 2 s and were combined with the group velocity data for the time period between 10 and 35 s from the regional events located in the Italian peninsula and bordering areas and two station phase velocity data corresponding to the time period between 25 and 100 s. In order to invert Rayleigh wave dispersion curves, we applied the nonlinear inversion method called hedgehog and retrieved average models for the first 30-35 km of the lithosphere, with the lower part of the upper mantle being kept fixed on the basis of existing regional models. A feature that is common to the two volcanic areas is a low shear velocity layer which is centered at the depth of about 10 km, while on the outside of the cone and along a path in the northeastern part of the Vesuvius area this layer is absent. This low velocity can be associated with the presence of partial melting and, therefore, may represent a quite diffused crustal magma reservoir which is fed by a deeper one that is regional in character and located in the uppermost mantle. The study of seismic source in terms of the moment tensor is suitable for an investigation of physical processes within a volcano; indeed, its components, double couple, compensated linear vector dipole, and volumetric, can be related to the movements of magma and fluids within the volcanic system. Although for many recent earthquake events the percentage of double couple component is high, our results also show the presence of significant non-double couple components in both volcanic areas. (author)

  9. EXPERIMENTAL CALIBRATION OF UNDERGROUND HEAT TRANSFER MODELS UNDER A WINERY BUILDING IN A RURAL AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Tinti

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ground temperature and hydrogeological conditions are key parameters for many engineering applications, such as the design of building basements and underground spaces and the assessment of shallow geothermal energy potential. Especially in urban areas, in the very shallow depths, it is diffi cult to fi nd natural undisturbed underground thermal conditions because of anthropic interventions. The assessment of underground behaviour in disturbed conditions will become more and more relevant because of increasing awareness to energy effi ciency and renewable energy topics. The purpose of this paper is to show a three-dimensional representation - based on models calibrated on experimental data - of the underground thermal behaviour aff ected by a building in a rural area in Italy. Temperature varies in space and time and it depends on ground, climate and building characteristics, and all these parameters are taken into account by the seasonal periodic modelling implemented. The results obtained in a context of low urbanization indirectly suggest the importance of these eff ects in dense urban areas; taking greater account of these aspects could lead to improvements in the design of underground spaces and geo-exchanger fi elds for geothermal energy exploitation.

  10. Model Accuracy Comparison for High Resolution Insar Coherence Statistics Over Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yue; Fu, Kun; Sun, Xian; Xu, Guangluan; Wang, Hongqi

    2016-06-01

    The interferometric coherence map derived from the cross-correlation of two complex registered synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images is the reflection of imaged targets. In many applications, it can act as an independent information source, or give additional information complementary to the intensity image. Specially, the statistical properties of the coherence are of great importance in land cover classification, segmentation and change detection. However, compared to the amount of work on the statistical characters of SAR intensity, there are quite fewer researches on interferometric SAR (InSAR) coherence statistics. And to our knowledge, all of the existing work that focuses on InSAR coherence statistics, models the coherence with Gaussian distribution with no discrimination on data resolutions or scene types. But the properties of coherence may be different for different data resolutions and scene types. In this paper, we investigate on the coherence statistics for high resolution data over urban areas, by making a comparison of the accuracy of several typical statistical models. Four typical land classes including buildings, trees, shadow and roads are selected as the representatives of urban areas. Firstly, several regions are selected from the coherence map manually and labelled with their corresponding classes respectively. Then we try to model the statistics of the pixel coherence for each type of region, with different models including Gaussian, Rayleigh, Weibull, Beta and Nakagami. Finally, we evaluate the model accuracy for each type of region. The experiments on TanDEM-X data show that the Beta model has a better performance than other distributions.

  11. MODEL ACCURACY COMPARISON FOR HIGH RESOLUTION INSAR COHERENCE STATISTICS OVER URBAN AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The interferometric coherence map derived from the cross-correlation of two complex registered synthetic aperture radar (SAR images is the reflection of imaged targets. In many applications, it can act as an independent information source, or give additional information complementary to the intensity image. Specially, the statistical properties of the coherence are of great importance in land cover classification, segmentation and change detection. However, compared to the amount of work on the statistical characters of SAR intensity, there are quite fewer researches on interferometric SAR (InSAR coherence statistics. And to our knowledge, all of the existing work that focuses on InSAR coherence statistics, models the coherence with Gaussian distribution with no discrimination on data resolutions or scene types. But the properties of coherence may be different for different data resolutions and scene types. In this paper, we investigate on the coherence statistics for high resolution data over urban areas, by making a comparison of the accuracy of several typical statistical models. Four typical land classes including buildings, trees, shadow and roads are selected as the representatives of urban areas. Firstly, several regions are selected from the coherence map manually and labelled with their corresponding classes respectively. Then we try to model the statistics of the pixel coherence for each type of region, with different models including Gaussian, Rayleigh, Weibull, Beta and Nakagami. Finally, we evaluate the model accuracy for each type of region. The experiments on TanDEM-X data show that the Beta model has a better performance than other distributions.

  12. High resolution tsunami modelling for the evaluation of potential risk areas in Setúbal (Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ribeiro

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of high resolution hydrodynamic modelling to simulate the potential effects of tsunami events can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas. Moreover, the consideration of complementary data such as the type of buildings, location of priority equipment, type of roads, enables mapping of the most vulnerable zones, computing of the expected damage on man-made structures, constrain of the definition of rescue areas and escape routes, adaptation of emergency plans and proper evaluation of the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipment.

    Such an approach was used to evaluate the specific risks associated with a potential occurrence of a tsunami event in the region of Setúbal (Portugal, which was one of the areas most seriously affected by the 1755 tsunami.

    In order to perform an evaluation of the hazard associated with the occurrence of a similar event, high resolution wave propagation simulations were performed considering different potential earthquake sources with different magnitudes. Based on these simulations, detailed inundation maps associated with the different events were produced. These results were combined with the available information on the vulnerability of the local infrastructures (building types, roads and streets characteristics, priority buildings in order to impose restrictions in the production of high-scale potential damage maps, escape routes and emergency routes maps.

  13. VEGETATION COVERAGE AND IMPERVIOUS SURFACE AREA ESTIMATED BASED ON THE ESTARFM MODEL AND REMOTE SENSING MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Impervious surface area and vegetation coverage are important biophysical indicators of urban surface features which can be derived from medium-resolution images. However, remote sensing data obtained by a single sensor are easily affected by many factors such as weather conditions, and the spatial and temporal resolution can not meet the needs for soil erosion estimation. Therefore, the integrated multi-source remote sensing data are needed to carry out high spatio-temporal resolution vegetation coverage estimation. Two spatial and temporal vegetation coverage data and impervious data were obtained from MODIS and Landsat 8 remote sensing images. Based on the Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM, the vegetation coverage data of two scales were fused and the data of vegetation coverage fusion (ESTARFM FVC and impervious layer with high spatiotemporal resolution (30 m, 8 day were obtained. On this basis, the spatial variability of the seepage-free surface and the vegetation cover landscape in the study area was measured by means of statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results showed that: 1 ESTARFM FVC and impermeable surface have higher accuracy and can characterize the characteristics of the biophysical components covered by the earth's surface; 2 The average impervious surface proportion and the spatial configuration of each area are different, which are affected by natural conditions and urbanization. In the urban area of Xi'an, which has typical characteristics of spontaneous urbanization, landscapes are fragmented and have less spatial dependence.

  14. Evaluating Trade Areas Using Social Media Data with a Calibrated Huff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yandong Wang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Delimitating trade areas is a major business concern. Today, mobile communication technologies make it possible to use social media data for this purpose. Few studies however, have focused on methods to extract suitable samples from social media data for trade area delimitation. In our case study, we divided Beijing into regular grid cells and extracted activity centers for each social media user. Ten sample sets were obtained by selecting users based on the retail agglomerations they visited and aggregating user activity centers to each grid cell. We calculated distance and visitation frequency attributes for each user and each grid cell. The distance value of a grid cell is the average distance of user activity centers in this grid cell to a retail agglomeration. The visitation frequency of a grid cell refers to the average count of visits to retail agglomerations by user activity centers for a cell. The calculated attribute values of 10 sets were input into a Huff model and the delimitated trade areas were evaluated. Results show that sets obtained by aggregating user activity centers have a better delimitating effect than sets obtained without aggregation. Differences in the distribution and intensity of trade areas also became apparent.

  15. Vegetation Coverage and Impervious Surface Area Estimated Based on the Estarfm Model and Remote Sensing Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Rongming; Wang, Shu; Guo, Jiao; Guo, Liankun

    2018-04-01

    Impervious surface area and vegetation coverage are important biophysical indicators of urban surface features which can be derived from medium-resolution images. However, remote sensing data obtained by a single sensor are easily affected by many factors such as weather conditions, and the spatial and temporal resolution can not meet the needs for soil erosion estimation. Therefore, the integrated multi-source remote sensing data are needed to carry out high spatio-temporal resolution vegetation coverage estimation. Two spatial and temporal vegetation coverage data and impervious data were obtained from MODIS and Landsat 8 remote sensing images. Based on the Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM), the vegetation coverage data of two scales were fused and the data of vegetation coverage fusion (ESTARFM FVC) and impervious layer with high spatiotemporal resolution (30 m, 8 day) were obtained. On this basis, the spatial variability of the seepage-free surface and the vegetation cover landscape in the study area was measured by means of statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results showed that: 1) ESTARFM FVC and impermeable surface have higher accuracy and can characterize the characteristics of the biophysical components covered by the earth's surface; 2) The average impervious surface proportion and the spatial configuration of each area are different, which are affected by natural conditions and urbanization. In the urban area of Xi'an, which has typical characteristics of spontaneous urbanization, landscapes are fragmented and have less spatial dependence.

  16. Benchmarking sensitivity of biophysical processes to leaf area changes in land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Duveiller, Gregory; Georgievski, Goran; Li, Wei; Robestson, Eddy; Kautz, Markus; Lawrence, Peter; Ciais, Philippe; Pongratz, Julia; Sitch, Stephen; Wiltshire, Andy; Arneth, Almut; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Land surface models (LSM) are widely applied as supporting tools for policy-relevant assessment of climate change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems, yet knowledge of their performance skills in representing the sensitivity of biophysical processes to changes in vegetation density is still limited. This is particularly relevant in light of the substantial impacts on regional climate associated with the changes in leaf area index (LAI) following the observed global greening. Benchmarking LSMs on the sensitivity of the simulated processes to vegetation density is essential to reduce their uncertainty and improve the representation of these effects. Here we present a novel benchmark system to assess model capacity in reproducing land surface-atmosphere energy exchanges modulated by vegetation density. Through a collaborative effort of different modeling groups, a consistent set of land surface energy fluxes and LAI dynamics has been generated from multiple LSMs, including JSBACH, JULES, ORCHIDEE, CLM4.5 and LPJ-GUESS. Relationships of interannual variations of modeled surface fluxes to LAI changes have been analyzed at global scale across different climatological gradients and compared with satellite-based products. A set of scoring metrics has been used to assess the overall model performances and a detailed analysis in the climate space has been provided to diagnose possible model errors associated to background conditions. Results have enabled us to identify model-specific strengths and deficiencies. An overall best performing model does not emerge from the analyses. However, the comparison with other models that work better under certain metrics and conditions indicates that improvements are expected to be potentially achievable. A general amplification of the biophysical processes mediated by vegetation is found across the different land surface schemes. Grasslands are characterized by an underestimated year-to-year variability of LAI in cold climates

  17. NOAA ESRI Grid - seafloor hardbottom occurrence predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents hard bottom occurrence predictions from a spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This model builds upon the...

  18. NOAA ESRI Grid - depth uncertainty predictions in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch bathymetry model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth uncertainty predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  19. Spatial Model for Determining the Optimum Placement of Logistics Centers in a Predefined Economic Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona Iulia Țarțavulea (Dieaconescu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The process of globalization has stimulated the demand for logistics services at a level of speed and increased efficiency, which involves using of techniques, tools, technologies and modern models in supply chain management. The aim of this research paper is to present a model that can be used in order to achieve an optimized supply chain, associated with minimum transportation costs. The utilization of spatial modeling for determining the optimal locations for logistics centers in a predefined economic area is proposd in this paper. The principal methods used to design the model are mathematic optimization and linear programming. The output data of the model are the precise placement of one up to ten logistics centers, in terms of minimum operational costs for delivery from the optimum locations to consumer points. The results of the research indicate that by using the proposed model, an efficient supply chain that is consistent with optimization of transport can be designed, in order to streamline the delivery process and thus reduce operational costs

  20. Model Development of Rainwater Management for Agriculture Decision Support System in Semi Arid Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tunggul S.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Land cultivation for agricultural purposes in semiarid area is usually carried out only once a year specifically during the rainy season. The condition is even worse since it is not without the risk of failure because of dry-spell or water-logging. To cope with this situation, the researchers developed a model of Rainwater Management for Agriculture Decision Supporting System (RMA-DSS. The objective of this RMA-DSS is to facilitate the decision making to build water infrastructure. Using this program it is hoped that sufficient water supply for specific crops with correct planting time can be guaranteed, which in turn will optimize harvest. The model consists of three parts, namely, rainfall-runoff-infiltration model, crop water requirement-irrigation-drainage model and rainwater management for agriculture model. The Models are designed using Microsoft Excel’s Macro Visual Basic and finalized with Visual Basic language program for operating spatial database of map object and non spatial database.

  1. An Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Simulating Human Exposure to Environmental Stresses in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Emlyn Yang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Several approaches have been used to assess potential human exposure to environmental stresses and achieve optimal results under various conditions, such as for example, for different scales, groups of people, or points in time. A thorough literature review in this paper identifies the research gap regarding modeling approaches for assessing human exposure to environment stressors, and it indicates that microsimulation tools are becoming increasingly important in human exposure assessments of urban environments, in which each person is simulated individually and continuously. The paper further describes an agent-based model (ABM framework that can dynamically simulate human exposure levels, along with their daily activities, in urban areas that are characterized by environmental stresses such as air pollution and heat stress. Within the framework, decision-making processes can be included for each individual based on rule-based behavior in order to achieve goals under changing environmental conditions. The ideas described in this paper are implemented in a free and open source NetLogo platform. A basic modeling scenario of the ABM framework in Hamburg, Germany, demonstrates its utility in various urban environments and individual activity patterns, as well as its portability to other models, programs, and frameworks. The prototype model can potentially be extended to support environmental incidence management through exploring the daily routines of different groups of citizens, and comparing the effectiveness of different strategies. Further research is needed to fully develop an operational version of the model.

  2. Modeling groundwater flow at the chemical plant area of the Weldon Spring Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durham, L.A.

    1992-10-01

    Groundwater flow in the shallow unconfined aquifer at the chemical plant area of the Weldon Spring site, St. Charles County, Missouri, was modeled with the Coupled Fluid, Energy, and Solute Transport (CFEST) groundwater flow and contaminant transport computer code. The modeling was performed in support of a hydrogeological characterization effort that is part of the remedial investigation/feasibility study-environmental impact statement process being carried out by the US Department of Energy at the site. This report presents the results of model development and calibration. In the calibration procedure, the range of field-measured hydrogeological parameters was tested to obtain the best match between model-predicted and measured groundwater elevations. After calibration, the model was used to evaluate whether the presence of an on-site disposal cell would impact the ability to remediate contaminated groundwater beneath the cell. The results of the numerical modeling, which were based on an evaluation of steady-state groundwater flow velocity plots, indicated that groundwater would flow beneath the disposal cell along natural gradients. The presence of a disposal cell would not significantly affect remediation capability for groundwater contamination

  3. Modeling freshwater snail habitat suitability and areas of potential snail-borne disease transmission in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Jørgensen, Aslak; Kabatereine, N B

    2006-01-01

    -borne disease transmission areas. Furthermore, knowledge of abiotic factors affecting intra-molluscan parasitic development can be used to make "masks" based on remotely sensed climatic data, and these can in turn be used to refine these predictions. We used data from a recent freshwater snail survey from......Geographic information system (GIS-based modeling of an intermediate host snail species environmental requirements using known occurrence records can provide estimates of its spatial distribution. When other data are lacking, this can be used as a rough spatial prediction of potential snail...... Uganda, environmental data and the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) to map the potential distribution of snail species known to act as intermediate hosts of several human and animal parasites. The results suggest that large areas of Uganda are suitable habitats for many of these snail...

  4. Distributed Model Predictive Load Frequency Control of Multi-area Power System with DFIGs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi Zhang; Xiangjie Liu; Bin Qu

    2017-01-01

    Reliable load frequency control(LFC) is crucial to the operation and design of modern electric power systems. Considering the LFC problem of a four-area interconnected power system with wind turbines, this paper presents a distributed model predictive control(DMPC) based on coordination scheme.The proposed algorithm solves a series of local optimization problems to minimize a performance objective for each control area. The generation rate constraints(GRCs), load disturbance changes, and the wind speed constraints are considered. Furthermore, the DMPC algorithm may reduce the impact of the randomness and intermittence of wind turbine effectively. A performance comparison between the proposed controller with and without the participation of the wind turbines is carried out. Analysis and simulation results show possible improvements on closed–loop performance, and computational burden with the physical constraints.

  5. Calculating the consequences of recovery, a European model for inhabited areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Charnock, T.W.; Jones, J.A.; Singer, L.N.

    2009-01-01

    The European Model for Inhabited Areas (ERMIN) was developed to allow a user to explore different recovery options following the contamination of an urban environment with radioactive material and to refine an appropriate strategy for the whole region affected. The input data include a description......, the contamination on urban surfaces, the activity concentration in air from resuspension, the doses to workers undertaking the recovery work, the quantity and activity of waste generated and the cost and work required to implement the countermeasure. ERMIN has been designed to be implemented as a tool that supports...... the approach of decision-makers and allows the area to be broken down into smaller regions where different conditions prevail and different countermeasure packages are enacted....

  6. Validation on groundwater flow model including sea level change. Modeling on groundwater flow in coastal granite area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Takuma; Miyakawa, Kimio

    2009-01-01

    It is important to verify the groundwater flow model that reproduces pressure head, water chemistry, and groundwater age. However, water chemistry and groundwater age are considered to be influenced by historical events. In this study, sea level change during glacial-interglacial cycle was taken into account for simulating salinity and groundwater age at coastal granite area. As a result of simulation, salinity movement could not catch up with sea level changes, and mixing zone was formed below the fresh-water zone. This mixing zone was observed in the field measurement, and the observed salinities were agreed with simulated results including sea level change. The simulated residence time including sea level change is one-tenth of steady state. The reason is that the saline water was washed out during regression and modern sea-water was infiltrated during transgression. As mentioned before, considering sea level change are important to reproduce salinity and helium age at coastal area. (author)

  7. Testing the methodology for site descriptive modelling. Application for the Laxemar area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Johan; Berglund, Johan; Follin, Sven; Hakami, Eva; Halvarson, Jan; Hermanson, Jan; Laaksoharju, Marcus; Rhen, Ingvar; Wahlgren, C.H.

    2002-08-01

    A special project has been conducted where the currently available data from the Laxemar area, which is part of the Simpevarp site, have been evaluated and interpreted into a Site Descriptive Model covering: geology, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry and rock mechanics. Description of the surface ecosystem has been omitted, since it was re-characterised in another, parallel, project. Furthermore, there has been no evaluation of transport properties. The project is primarily a methodology test. The lessons learnt will be implemented in the Site Descriptive Modelling during the coming site investigation. The intent of the project has been to explore whether available methodology for Site Descriptive Modelling based on surface and borehole data is adequate and to identify potential needs for development and improvement in the methodology. The project has developed, with limitations in scope, a Site Descriptive Model in local scale, corresponding to the situation after completion of the Initial Site Investigations for the Laxemar area (i.e. 'version 1.2' using the vocabulary of the general execution program for the site investigations). The Site Descriptive Model should be reasonable, but should not be regarded as a 'real' model. There are limitations both in input data and in the scope of the analysis. The measured (primary) data constitute a wide range of different measurement results including data from two deep core drilled boreholes. These data both need to be checked for consistency and to be interpreted into a format more amenable for three-dimensional modelling. Examples of such evaluations are estimation of surface geology, lineament interpretation, geological single hole interpretation, hydrogeological single hole interpretation and assessment of hydrogeochemical data. Furthermore, while cross discipline interpretation is encouraged there is also a need for transparency. This means that the evaluations first are made within each discipline and after this

  8. Radiological Modeling for Determination of Derived Concentration Levels of an Area with Uranium Residual Material - 13533

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez-Sanchez, Danyl [CIEMAT, Avenida Complutense 40, 28040, Madrid (Spain)

    2013-07-01

    As a result of a pilot project developed at the old Spanish 'Junta de Energia Nuclear' to extract uranium from ores, tailings materials were generated. Most of these residual materials were sent back to different uranium mines, but a small amount of it was mixed with conventional building materials and deposited near the old plant until the surrounding ground was flattened. The affected land is included in an area under institutional control and used as recreational area. At the time of processing, uranium isotopes were separated but other radionuclides of the uranium decay series as Th-230, Ra-226 and daughters remain in the residue. Recently, the analyses of samples taken at different ground's depths confirmed their presence. This paper presents the methodology used to calculate the derived concentration level to ensure that the reference dose level of 0.1 mSv y-1 used as radiological criteria. In this study, a radiological impact assessment was performed modeling the area as recreational scenario. The modelization study was carried out with the code RESRAD considering as exposure pathways, external irradiation, inadvertent ingestion of soil, inhalation of resuspended particles, and inhalation of radon (Rn-222). As result was concluded that, if the concentration of Ra-226 in the first 15 cm of soil is lower than, 0.34 Bq g{sup -1}, the dose would not exceed the reference dose. Applying this value as a derived concentration level and comparing with the results of measurements on the ground, some areas with a concentration of activity slightly higher than latter were found. In these zones the remediation proposal has been to cover with a layer of 15 cm of clean material. This action represents a reduction of 85% of the dose and ensures compliance with the reference dose. (authors)

  9. Modeling the dynamics of radionuclide concentration in food after an accident in tropical areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinhas, Denise M.; Rochedo, Elaine R.R.; Wasserman, Maria Angelica; Conti, Luiz Fernando C.

    2005-01-01

    Following an accidental release of radionuclides to the atmosphere that leads to the contamination of large areas, a detailed and fast methodology to assess the prognosis of public exposure is needed, in order to estimate radiological consequences as a base to propose and optimize decisions related to the protection of the public. The German model ECOSYS has been chosen to integrate the SIEM - Integrated Emergency System, developed by IRD/CNEN to assess the doses to the public at the short, medium and long term after an accidental contamination of rural areas. The use of such a model demands a considerable effort in adapting the scenarios to fit the specific conditions of the location where it is to be applied, in particular considering the differences on climate, environmental characteristics, agricultural calendar and practices, along with population diet. The area selected as reference to start this adaptation process is the 50 km radius area surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plants, at Angra dos Reis County, in Rio de Janeiro State. Radionuclides included in this study were 137 Cs, 90 Sr and 131 I. This work describes the methodology used to select scenarios and describes the results related to the dynamics of the predicted concentration of radionuclides in different kinds of vegetable foods. It also discusses the relevance of criteria, parameter values and site specific aspects that are to be considered in performing assessments of public exposure. The work provides guidance to the need of radioecological research and on the database needed to perform the simulations, in order to improve the adequacy of the estimates to actual Brazilian scenarios. (author)

  10. A decision-making framework to model environmental flow requirements in oasis areas using Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Zhao, Ying; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Feng, Xinlong; Mao, Donglei; Shareef, Muhammad

    2016-09-01

    The competition for water resources between agricultural and natural oasis ecosystems has become an increasingly serious problem in oasis areas worldwide. Recently, the intensive extension of oasis farmland has led to excessive exploitation of water discharge, and consequently has resulted in a lack of water supply in natural oasis. To coordinate the conflicts, this paper provides a decision-making framework for modeling environmental flows in oasis areas using Bayesian networks (BNs). Three components are included in the framework: (1) assessment of agricultural economic loss due to meeting environmental flow requirements; (2) decision-making analysis using BNs; and (3) environmental flow decision-making under different water management scenarios. The decision-making criterion is determined based on intersection point analysis between the probability of large-level total agro-economic loss and the ratio of total to maximum agro-economic output by satisfying environmental flows. An application in the Qira oasis area of the Tarim Basin, Northwest China indicates that BNs can model environmental flow decision-making associated with agricultural economic loss effectively, as a powerful tool to coordinate water-use conflicts. In the case study, the environmental flow requirement is determined as 50.24%, 49.71% and 48.73% of the natural river flow in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. Without further agricultural economic loss, 1.93%, 0.66% and 0.43% of more river discharge can be allocated to eco-environmental water demands under the combined strategy in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. This work provides a valuable reference for environmental flow decision-making in any oasis area worldwide.

  11. Methods for quantitative measurement of tooth wear using the area and volume of virtual model cusps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Soo-Hyun; Park, Young-Seok; Kim, Min-Kyoung; Kim, Sulhee; Lee, Seung-Pyo

    2018-04-01

    Clinicians must examine tooth wear to make a proper diagnosis. However, qualitative methods of measuring tooth wear have many disadvantages. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and evaluate quantitative parameters using the cusp area and volume of virtual dental models. The subjects of this study were the same virtual models that were used in our former study. The same age group classification and new tooth wear index (NTWI) scoring system were also reused. A virtual occlusal plane was generated with the highest cusp points and lowered vertically from 0.2 to 0.8 mm to create offset planes. The area and volume of each cusp was then measured and added together. In addition to the former analysis, the differential features of each cusp were analyzed. The scores of the new parameters differentiated the age and NTWI groups better than those analyzed in the former study. The Spearman ρ coefficients between the total area and the area of each cusp also showed higher scores at the levels of 0.6 mm (0.6A) and 0.8A. The mesiolingual cusp (MLC) showed a statistically significant difference ( P <0.01) from the other cusps in the paired t -test. Additionally, the MLC exhibited the highest percentage of change at 0.6A in some age and NTWI groups. Regarding the age groups, the MLC showed the highest score in groups 1 and 2. For the NTWI groups, the MLC was not significantly different in groups 3 and 4. These results support the proposal that the lingual cusp exhibits rapid wear because it serves as a functional cusp. Although this study has limitations due to its cross-sectional nature, it suggests better quantitative parameters and analytical tools for the characteristics of cusp wear.

  12. Plastic Debris Occurrence, Convergence Areas and Fin Whales Feeding Ground in the Mediterranean Marine Protected Area Pelagos Sanctuary: A Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina Fossi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean Sea is greatly affected by marine litter. In this area, research on the impact of plastic debris (including microplastics on biota, particularly large filter-feeding species such as the fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus, is still in its infancy. We investigated the possible overlap between microplastic, mesoplastic and macrolitter accumulation areas and the fin whale feeding grounds in in a pelagic Specially Protected Area of Mediterranean Importance (SPAMI: the Pelagos Sanctuary. Models of ocean circulation and fin whale potential habitat were merged to compare marine litter accumulation with the presence of whales. Additionally, field data on microplastics, mesoplastics, and macrolitter abundance and cetacean presence were simultaneously collected. The resulting data were compared, as a multi-layer, with the simulated distribution of plastic concentration and the whale habitat model. These data showed a high occurrence of microplastics (mean: 0.082 items/m2, STD ± 0.079 items/m2 spatial distribution agreed with our modeling results. Areas with high microplastic density significantly overlapped with areas of high macroplastic density. The most abundant polymer detected in all the sampling sites was polyethylene (PE, suggesting fragmentation of larger packaging items as the primary source. To our knowledge, this is the first study in the Pelagos Sanctuary in which the simulated microplastic distribution has been confirmed by field observations. The overlap between the fin whale feeding habitat and the microplastic hot spots is an important contribution for risk assessment of fin whale exposure to microplastics.

  13. Predicted Infiltration for Sodic/Saline Soils from Reclaimed Coastal Areas: Sensitivity to Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongdong Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm3. A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ0 was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils.

  14. Predicted infiltration for sodic/saline soils from reclaimed coastal areas: sensitivity to model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dongdong; She, Dongli; Yu, Shuang'en; Shao, Guangcheng; Chen, Dan

    2014-01-01

    This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline) and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline) were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm(3). A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ₀ was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils.

  15. Anopheles atroparvus density modeling using MODIS NDVI in a former malarious area in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, Pedro M; Sousa, Carla A; Seixas, Júlia; Lopes, Pedro; Novo, Maria T; Almeida, A Paulo G

    2011-12-01

    Malaria is dependent on environmental factors and considered as potentially re-emerging in temperate regions. Remote sensing data have been used successfully for monitoring environmental conditions that influence the patterns of such arthropod vector-borne diseases. Anopheles atroparvus density data were collected from 2002 to 2005, on a bimonthly basis, at three sites in a former malarial area in Southern Portugal. The development of the Remote Vector Model (RVM) was based upon two main variables: temperature and the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra satellite. Temperature influences the mosquito life cycle and affects its intra-annual prevalence, and MODIS NDVI was used as a proxy for suitable habitat conditions. Mosquito data were used for calibration and validation of the model. For areas with high mosquito density, the model validation demonstrated a Pearson correlation of 0.68 (pNDVI. RVM is a satellite data-based assimilation algorithm that uses temperature fields to predict the intra- and inter-annual densities of this mosquito species using MODIS NDVI. RVM is a relevant tool for vector density estimation, contributing to the risk assessment of transmission of mosquito-borne diseases and can be part of the early warning system and contingency plans providing support to the decision making process of relevant authorities. © 2011 The Society for Vector Ecology.

  16. Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of an Isolated Hybrid Power System in a Rural Area of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojian Jiang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In some rural areas in the northwest of China, people are suffering from not only the voltage drop due to long distance transmission but also the power outages due to remoteness and poorly maintained grid. In recent few years, the price of solar energy has been reduced drastically every year in China due to the government policy on renewable energy. In the near future, isolated hybrid power systems for home use could be affordable and used by residences in these rural areas. Thus, it is necessary to design a hybrid power system based on local load and weather condition to check system feasibility and expected performance. It includes load simulation, system sizing, and dynamic system modeling and simulation. This paper firstly introduces current development of renewable energy in China and then goes through the sizing, modeling, and simulation of the system design for a typical remote home in China and finally discusses the system’s availability based on the simulation results. In this paper, the NASA website is the source for weather data, and BEopt is used to generate load data. During system modeling, the MPPT algorithm is much simpler designed than the complex incremental method. A soft starter is adopted with the diesel generator for stability. The charge controller of the battery storage provides external command to the MPPT and diesel PID controller to prevent the battery storage from overcharging. The rms value of the fundamental load voltage is used in the voltage control loop of the inverter.

  17. Modelling multiple hospital outcomes: the impact of small area and primary care practice variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congdon Peter

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Appropriate management of care – for example, avoiding unnecessary attendances at, or admissions to, hospital emergency units when they could be handled in primary care – is an important part of health strategy. However, some variations in these outcomes could be due to genuine variations in health need. This paper proposes a new method of explaining variations in hospital utilisation across small areas and the general practices (GPs responsible for patient primary care. By controlling for the influence of true need on such variations, one may identify remaining sources of excess emergency attendances and admissions, both at area and practice level, that may be related to the quality, resourcing or organisation of care. The present paper accordingly develops a methodology that recognises the interplay between population mix factors (health need and primary care factors (e.g. referral thresholds, that allows for unobserved influences on hospitalisation usage, and that also reflects interdependence between hospital outcomes. A case study considers relativities in attendance and admission rates at a North London hospital involving 149 small areas and 53 GP practices. Results: A fixed effects model shows variations in attendances and admissions are significantly related (positively to area and practice need, and nursing home patients, and related (negatively to primary care access and distance of patient homes from the hospital. Modelling the impact of known factors alone is not sufficient to produce a satisfactory fit to the observations, and random effects at area and practice level are needed to improve fit and account for overdispersion. Conclusion: The case study finds variation in attendance and admission rates across areas and practices after controlling for need, and remaining differences between practices may be attributable to referral behaviour unrelated to need, or to staffing, resourcing, and access issues. In

  18. Assessing the quality of digital elevation models obtained from mini unmanned aerial vehicles for overland flow modelling in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, João P.; Moy de Vitry, Matthew; Scheidegger, Andreas; Rieckermann, Jörg

    2016-04-01

    Precise and detailed digital elevation models (DEMs) are essential to accurately predict overland flow in urban areas. Unfortunately, traditional sources of DEM, such as airplane light detection and ranging (lidar) DEMs and point and contour maps, remain a bottleneck for detailed and reliable overland flow models, because the resulting DEMs are too coarse to provide DEMs of sufficient detail to inform urban overland flows. Interestingly, technological developments of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) suggest that they have matured enough to be a competitive alternative to satellites or airplanes. However, this has not been tested so far. In this study we therefore evaluated whether DEMs generated from UAV imagery are suitable for urban drainage overland flow modelling. Specifically, 14 UAV flights were conducted to assess the influence of four different flight parameters on the quality of generated DEMs: (i) flight altitude, (ii) image overlapping, (iii) camera pitch, and (iv) weather conditions. In addition, we compared the best-quality UAV DEM to a conventional lidar-based DEM. To evaluate both the quality of the UAV DEMs and the comparison to lidar-based DEMs, we performed regression analysis on several qualitative and quantitative metrics, such as elevation accuracy, quality of object representation (e.g. buildings, walls and trees) in the DEM, which were specifically tailored to assess overland flow modelling performance, using the flight parameters as explanatory variables. Our results suggested that, first, as expected, flight altitude influenced the DEM quality most, where lower flights produce better DEMs; in a similar fashion, overcast weather conditions are preferable, but weather conditions and other factors influence DEM quality much less. Second, we found that for urban overland flow modelling, the UAV DEMs performed competitively in comparison to a traditional lidar-based DEM. An important advantage of using UAVs to generate DEMs in urban areas is

  19. Inter-comparison of receptor models for PM source apportionment: Case study in an industrial area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana, M.; Pandolfi, M.; Minguillón, M. C.; Querol, X.; Alastuey, A.; Monfort, E.; Celades, I.

    2008-05-01

    Receptor modelling techniques are used to identify and quantify the contributions from emission sources to the levels and major and trace components of ambient particulate matter (PM). A wide variety of receptor models are currently available, and consequently the comparability between models should be evaluated if source apportionment data are to be used as input in health effects studies or mitigation plans. Three of the most widespread receptor models (principal component analysis, PCA; positive matrix factorization, PMF; chemical mass balance, CMB) were applied to a single PM10 data set (n=328 samples, 2002-2005) obtained from an industrial area in NE Spain, dedicated to ceramic production. Sensitivity and temporal trend analyses (using the Mann-Kendall test) were applied. Results evidenced the good overall performance of the three models (r2>0.83 and α>0.91×between modelled and measured PM10 mass), with a good agreement regarding source identification and high correlations between input (CMB) and output (PCA, PMF) source profiles. Larger differences were obtained regarding the quantification of source contributions (up to a factor of 4 in some cases). The combined application of different types of receptor models would solve the limitations of each of the models, by constructing a more robust solution based on their strengths. The authors suggest the combined use of factor analysis techniques (PCA, PMF) to identify and interpret emission sources, and to obtain a first quantification of their contributions to the PM mass, and the subsequent application of CMB. Further research is needed to ensure that source apportionment methods are robust enough for application to PM health effects assessments.

  20. Revised model of regional groundwater flow in the Whiteshell research area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ophori, D.U.; Brown, A.; Chan, T.; Davison, C.C.; Gascoyne, M.; Scheier, N.W.; Stanchell, F.W.; Stevenson, D.R.

    1996-08-01

    Steady-state regional groundwater flow of the Whiteshell Research Area (WRA) has been simulated in order to evaluate alternate locations for a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault that maximize the retention of vault contaminants in long, slow groundwater flow paths through the geosphere. A revised conceptual model of the hydrogeologic conditions was constructed using all the information obtained from field investigations at the WRA between 1977 and 1994. All the simulations were performed using AECL's three-dimensional finite element code, MOTIF. A base-case simulation was performed using average value estimates of hydraulic parameters obtained from the field data, and freshwater was assumed to occur in the entire groundwater flow region. The simulated freshwater heads did not compare favourably with the freshwater beads that were derived from the field data. The simulated equivalent freshwater heads for the final calibrated model compared reasonably well with measured heads in the network of boreholes at the WRA. The simulated recharge rate for the final model was 4.8 mm/a Most of the groundwater flow in the model occurred in local systems between ground surface and a depth of 1000 m. A particle tracking code, TRACK3D, was used to determine the pathways, travel times and exit locations of particles released from different depths in the groundwater velocity field of the calibrated model. The exit locations of these pathways were found to be controlled by the network of regional fracture zones in the model. These results were used to select a location for a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault in the regional groundwater flow model that maximizes the retention of vault contaminants in long, slow groundwater flow paths. A smaller region of about 75 km 2 was identified around this location for the development of a local geosphere model. (author). 32 refs., 4 tabs., 29 figs

  1. Mitigation of urban heat stress – a modelling case study for the area of Stuttgart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fallmann, Joachim

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2050 the fraction of urban global population will increase to over 69%, which means that around 6.3 billion people are expected to live in urban areas (UN 2011. Cities are the predominant habitation places for humans to live and are vulnerable to extreme weather events aggravating phenomena like heat stress. Finding mitigation strategies to sustain future development is of great importance, given expected influences on human health. In this study, the mesoscale numerical model WRF is used on a regional scale for the urban area of Stuttgart, to simulate the effect of urban planning strategies on dynamical processes affecting urban climate. After comparing two urban parameterisation schemes, a sensitivity study for different scenarios is performed; it shows that a change of the reflective properties of surfaces has the highest impact on near-surface temperatures compared to an increase of urban green areas or a decrease of building density. The Urban Heat Island (UHI describes the temperature difference between urban and rural temperatures; it characterises regional urban climate and is responsible for urban-rural circulation patterns. Applying urban planning measures may decrease the intensity of the UHI in the study area by up to 2 °C by using heat-reflective roof paints or by 1 °C through replacing impervious surfaces by natural vegetation in the urban vicinity – compared to a value of 2.5 °C for the base case. Because of its topographical location in a valley and the overall high temperatures in this region, the area of Stuttgart suffers from heat stress to a comparatively large extent.

  2. [Identification of early irreversible damage area in a rat model of cerebral ischemia and reperfusion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S; Guo, Y

    2000-02-01

    To observe the early neuron ischemic damage in focal cerebral ischemia/reperfusion with histostaining methods of argyrophil III (AG III), Toludine blue(TB), and H&E, and to make out the 'separating line' between the areas of reversible and irreversible early ischemic damage. Forty-two male Wistar rats were randomly divided into the following groups: pseudo-surgical, blank-control, O2R0(occluded for 2 hours and reperfused for 0 hour), O2R0.5, O2R2, O2R4, O2R24. There were 6 rats in each group. Rats in experimental groups were suffered focal cerebral ischemia/reperfusion through a nylon suture method. After a special processor for tissue manage, the brain were coronal sectioned and stained with H&E, TB, and AG III. The area where dark neurons dwell in (ischemic core) were calculated with image analysis system. The success rate of ischemic model for this experiment is 90%. After being stained with argyrophil III method, normal neurons appear yellow or pale brown, which is hardly distinguished from the pale brown background. The ischemic neuron stained black, and has collapsed body and "corkscrew-like" axon or dentries, which were broken to some extent. The neuropil in the dark neurons dwelt area appears gray or pale black, which is apparently different from the pale brown neighborhood area. The distribution of dark neurons in cortex varies according to different layers, and has a character of columnar form. The dark neurons present as early as 2 hours ischemia without reperfusion with AG III method. AG III stain could selectively display early ischemic neurons, the area dwelt by dark neurons represent early ischemic core. Dark neuron is possibly the irreversibly damaged neuron. Identification of dark neurons could be helpful in the discrimination between early ischemic center and penumbra.

  3. Toronto area ozone: Long-term measurements and modeled sources of poor air quality events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whaley, C. H.; Strong, K.; Jones, D. B. A.; Walker, T. W.; Jiang, Z.; Henze, D. K.; Cooke, M. A.; McLinden, C. A.; Mittermeier, R. L.; Pommier, M.; Fogal, P. F.

    2015-11-01

    The University of Toronto Atmospheric Observatory and Environment Canada's Centre for Atmospheric Research Experiments each has over a decade of ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy measurements in southern Ontario. We present the Toronto area FTIR time series from 2002 to 2013 of two tropospheric trace gases—ozone and carbon monoxide—along with surface in situ measurements taken by government monitoring programs. We interpret their variability with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and determine the atmospheric conditions that cause pollution events in the time series. Our analysis includes a regionally tagged O3 model of the 2004-2007 time period, which quantifies the geographical contributions to Toronto area O3. The important emission types for 15 pollution events are then determined with a high-resolution adjoint model. Toronto O3, during pollution events, is most sensitive to southern Ontario and U.S. fossil fuel NOx emissions and natural isoprene emissions. The sources of Toronto pollution events are found to be highly variable, and this is demonstrated in four case studies representing local, short-, middle-, and long-range transport scenarios. This suggests that continental-scale emission reductions could improve air quality in the Toronto region. We also find that abnormally high temperatures and high-pressure systems are common to all pollution events studied, suggesting that climate change may impact Toronto O3. Finally, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of the surface and column measurements to anthropogenic NOx emissions and show that they are remarkably similar. This work thus demonstrates the usefulness of FTIR measurements in an urban area to assess air quality.

  4. The determination of risk areas for muddy floods based on a worst-case erosion modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saathoff, Ulfert; Schindewolf, Marcus; Annika Arévalo, Sarah

    2013-04-01

    Soil erosion and muddy floods are a frequently occurring hazard in the German state of Saxony, because of the topography and the high relief energy together with the high proportion of arable land. Still, the events are rather heterogeneously distributed and we do not know where damage is likely to occur. The goal of this study is to locate hot spots for the risk of muddy floods, with the objective to prevent high economic damage in future. We applied a soil erosion and deposition map of Saxony, calculated with the process based soil erosion model EROSION 3D. This map shows the potential soil erosion and transported sediment for worst case soil conditions and a 10 year rain storm event. Furthermore, a map of the current landuse in the state is used. From the landuse map, we extracted those areas that are especially vulnerable to muddy floods, like residential and industrial areas, infrastructural facilities (e.g. power plants, hospitals) and highways. In combination with the output of the soil erosion model, the amount of sediment, that enters each single landuse entity, is calculated. Based on this data, a state-wide map with classified risks is created. The results are furthermore used to identify the risk of muddy floods for each single municipality in Saxony. The results are evaluated with data of real occurred muddy flood events with documented locations during the period between 2000 and 2010. Additionally, plausibility tests are performed for selected areas (examination of landuse, topography and soil). The results prove to be plausible and most of the documented events can be explained by the modelled risk map. The created map can be used by different institutions like city and traffic planners, to estimate the risk of muddy flood occurrence at specific locations. Furthermore, the risk map can serve insurance companies to evaluate the insurance risk of a building. To make them easily accessible, the risk map will be published online via a web GIS

  5. Urban land use and land cover change analysis and modeling a case study area Malatya, Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Baysal, Gülendam

    2013-01-01

    Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies. This research was conducted to analyze the land use and land cover changes and to model the changes for the case study area Malatya, Turkey. The first step of the study was acquisition of multi temporal data in order to detect the changes over the time. For this purpose satellite images (Landsat 1990-2000-2010) have been used. In order to acquire data from satel...

  6. New model of the vertical crustal movements in the area of Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Kowalczyk, Kamil

    2006-01-01

    In 2003 the fourth levelling campaign has been finished in Poland. This campaign, together with the previous one carried out in 1974–1982, gave a very good opportunity to determine the land uplift in the area of Poland. The paper describes shortly the third and fourth campaigns, the computation of the relative land uplift, computation of land uplift referred to the mean sea level and modeling the land uplift by the least-squares collocation method. Obtained results are compared with the compu...

  7. Hydrogeological conditions in the Finnsjoen area. Compilation of data and conceptual model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, J.E.; Nordqvist, R.; Nyberg, G.; Smellie, J.; Tiren, S.

    1991-02-01

    In the present report all available data gathered from the Finnsjoen area of potential use for numerical modelling are compiled and discussed. The data have been collected during different phases during the period 1977-1989. This inevitably means that the quality of the measured and interpreted data varies in accordance with the continuous developments of improved equipments and interpretation techniques. The present report is an updated version of the SKB progress report 89-24 with the same title and authors, see introduction. (au)

  8. What determines area burned in large landscapes? Insights from a decade of comparative landscape-fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Russ A. Parsons

    2015-01-01

    Understanding what determines area burned in large landscapes is critical for informing wildland fire management in fire-prone environments and for representing fire activity in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. For the past ten years, a group of landscape-fire modellers have been exploring the relative influence of key determinants of area burned in temperate and...

  9. Nested hyper-resolution modeling of urban areas for the National Water Model - The Dallas-Fort Worth Testbed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, S. J.; Kim, S.; Habibi, H.; Seo, D. J.; Welles, E.; Philips, B.; Adams, E.; Smith, M. B.; Wells, E.

    2017-12-01

    With the development of the National Water Model (NWM), the NWS has made a step-change advance in operational water forecasting by enabling high-resolution hydrologic modeling across the US. As a part of a separate initiative to enhance flash flood forecasting and inundation mapping capacity, the NWS has been mandated to provide forecasts at even finer spatiotemporal resolutions when and where such information is demanded. In this presentation, we describe implementation of the NWM at a hyper resolution over a nested domain. We use WRF-Hydro as the core model but at significantly higher resolutions with scale-commensurate model parameters. The demonstration domain is multiple urban catchments within the Cities of Arlington and Grand Prairie in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. This area is susceptible to urban flooding due to the hydroclimatology coupled with large impervious cover. The nested model is based on hyper-resolution terrain data to resolve significant land surface features such as streets and large man-made structures, and forced by the high-resolution radar-based quantitative precipitation information. In this presentation, we summarize progress and preliminary results and share issues and challenges.

  10. High Resolution Tsunami Modelling for the Evaluation of Potential Risk Areas in Setubal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, João.; Silva, Adélio; Leitão, Paulo

    2010-05-01

    Modeling has a relevant role in today's natural hazards mitigation planning as it can cover a wide range of natural phenomena. This is also the case for an event like a tsunami. In order to support the urban planning or prepare emergency response plans it is of major importance to be able to properly evaluate the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipments. The use of high resolution models can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas which complemented with other data such as the type of buildings, location of prioritary equipments, etc., may effectively contribute to better identify the most vulnerable zones, define rescue and escape routes and adequate the emergency plans to the constraints associated to these type of events. In the framework of FP6 SCHEMA project these concepts are being applied to different test sites and a detailed evaluation of the vulnerability of buildings and people to a tsunami event is being evaluated. One of the sites selected it is located in Portugal, in the Atlantic coast, and it refers to Setúbal area which is located about 40 km south of Lisbon. Within this site two specific locations are being evaluated: one is the city of Setúbal (in the Sado estuary right margin) and the other is the Tróia peninsula (in the Sado estuary left margin). Setúbal city is a medium size town with about 114,000 inhabitants while Tróia is a touristic resort located in a shallow area with a high seasonal occupation and has the river Sado as one of the main sources of income to the city. Setúbal was one of the Portuguese villages that was seriously damaged by the of 1755 earthquake event. The 1755 earthquake, also known as the Great Lisbon Earthquake, took place on 1 November 1755, the catholic holiday of All Saints, around 09:30 AM. The earthquake was followed by a tsunami and fires which caused a huge destruction of Lisboa and Setúbal In the framework of the present study, a detailed evaluation of

  11. Is tuberculosis treatment really free in China? A study comparing two areas with different management models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangsang Qiu

    Full Text Available China has implemented a free-service policy for tuberculosis. However, patients still have to pay a substantial proportion of their annual income for treatment of this disease. This study describes the economic burden on patients with tuberculosis; identifies related factors by comparing two areas with different management models; and provides policy recommendation for tuberculosis control reform in China.There are three tuberculosis management models in China: the tuberculosis dispensary model, specialist model and integrated model. We selected Zhangjiagang (ZJG and Taixing (TX as the study sites, which correspond to areas implementing the integrated model and dispensary model, respectively. Patients diagnosed and treated for tuberculosis since January 2010 were recruited as study subjects. A total of 590 patients (316 patients from ZJG and 274 patients from TX were interviewed with a response rate of 81%. The economic burden attributed to tuberculosis, including direct costs and indirect costs, was estimated and compared between the two study sites. The Mann-Whitney U Test was used to compare the cost differences between the two groups. Potential factors related to the total out-of-pocket costs were analyzed based on a step-by-step multivariate linear regression model after the logarithmic transformation of the costs.The average (median, interquartile range total cost was 18793.33 (9965, 3200-24400 CNY for patients in ZJG, which was significantly higher than for patients in TX (mean: 6598.33, median: 2263, interquartile range: 983-6688 (Z = 10.42, P < 0.001. After excluding expenses covered by health insurance, the average out-of-pocket costs were 14304.4 CNY in ZJG and 5639.2 CNY in TX. Based on the multivariable linear regression analysis, factors related to the total out-of-pocket costs were study site, age, number of clinical visits, residence, diagnosis delay, hospitalization, intake of liver protective drugs and use of the second

  12. Ecohydrological modeling: the consideration of agricultural trees is essential in the Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; von Bloh, Werner; Shi, Sinan; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-04-01

    In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall and direct degradation of ecosystems. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the Eastern and Southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive ecohydrological model. Here we present here the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL, "Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land"): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was then successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. A first application of the model indicates that, currently, agricultural trees consume in average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops. Also, different crops show different magnitude of changes in net irrigation requirements due to climate change, being the increases most pronounced in agricultural trees. This is very relevant since the Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 74% from climate change and population growth if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Additionally, future water scarcity might pose further challenges to the agricultural sector: Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain have a high risk of not being able to sustainably meet future irrigation water requirements in some scenarios by the end of the century (1). The importance of including agricultural trees in the ecohydrological models is also shown in the results concerning soil organic carbon (SOC). Since in former model

  13. A new general dynamic model predicting radionuclide concentrations and fluxes in coastal areas from readily accessible driving variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haakanson, Lars

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a general, process-based dynamic model for coastal areas for radionuclides (metals, organics and nutrients) from both single pulse fallout and continuous deposition. The model gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases and concentrations in sediments and fish) for entire defined coastal areas. The model gives monthly variations. It accounts for inflow from tributaries, direct fallout to the coastal area, internal fluxes (sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion, burial, mixing and biouptake and retention in fish) and fluxes to and from the sea outside the defined coastal area and/or adjacent coastal areas. The fluxes of water and substances between the sea and the coastal area are differentiated into three categories of coast types: (i) areas where the water exchange is regulated by tidal effects; (ii) open coastal areas where the water exchange is regulated by coastal currents; and (iii) semi-enclosed archipelago coasts. The coastal model gives the fluxes to and from the following four abiotic compartments: surface water, deep water, ET areas (i.e., areas where fine sediment erosion and transport processes dominate the bottom dynamic conditions and resuspension appears) and A-areas (i.e., areas of continuous fine sediment accumulation). Criteria to define the boundaries for the given coastal area towards the sea, and to define whether a coastal area is open or closed are given in operational terms. The model is simple to apply since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, fallout and month of fallout and parameters expressing coastal size and form as determined from, e.g., digitized bathymetric maps using a GIS program. Selected results: the predictions of radionuclide concentrations in water and fish largely depend on two factors, the concentration in the sea outside the given

  14. Parametric Modeling of the Safety Effects of NextGen Terminal Maneuvering Area Conflict Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, William H.; Waldron, Timothy P.; Stroiney, Steven R.

    2011-01-01

    The goal of this work was to analytically identify and quantify the issues, challenges, technical hurdles, and pilot-vehicle interface issues associated with conflict detection and resolution (CD&R)in emerging operational concepts for a NextGen terminal aneuvering area, including surface operations. To this end, the work entailed analytical and trade studies focused on modeling the achievable safety benefits of different CD&R strategies and concepts in the current and future airport environment. In addition, crew-vehicle interface and pilot performance enhancements and potential issues were analyzed based on review of envisioned NextGen operations, expected equipage advances, and human factors expertise. The results of perturbation analysis, which quantify the high-level performance impact of changes to key parameters such as median response time and surveillance position error, show that the analytical model developed could be useful in making technology investment decisions.

  15. Dynamic model of forest area on flood zone of Padang City, West Sumatra Province-Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewata, Indang; Iswandi, U.

    2018-05-01

    The flood disaster has caused many harm to human life, and the change of watershed characteristic is one of the factors causing the flood disaster. The increase of deforestation due to the increase of water causes the occurrence of flood disaster in the rainy season. The research objective was to develop a dynamic model of forest on flood hazard zone using powersim 10.1. In model development, there are three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. The study shows that in Padang there are about 13 percent of high flood hazard zones. Deforestation of 4.5 percent/year is one cause that may increased the flooding intensity in Padang. There will be 14 percent of total forest area when management policy of forest absence in 2050.

  16. Ranking zones model – a multicriterial approach to the spatial management of urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Marović

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Urban investment planning is highly complex and different views are provided by stakeholders and experts as to the scope, scale and potential solutions. The evaluation of such investments requires explicit consideration of multiple, conflicting and incommensurate criteria that have an important social, economic, and environmental influence on various stakeholders in different ways. To take into account all the dimensions, the proposed model is the Ranking Zones Model (RZM, based on PROMETHEE methods. The RZM comprises several steps providing a rank-list of all observed zones. It helps decision-makers come up with consistent decisions as to which zones to invest in and, at the same time, provides reassurance that the decision was based on a proper comparison of all relevant urban zone areas. The advantage of this approach is that even with a change in the decision-making structure, the actual procedure remains consistent.

  17. From explicit to implicit normal mode initialization of a limited-area model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bijlsma, S.J.

    2013-02-15

    In this note the implicit normal mode initialization of a limited-area model is discussed from a different point of view. To that end it is shown that the equations describing the explicit normal mode initialization applied to the shallow water equations in differentiated form on the sphere can readily be derived in normal mode space if the model equations are separable, but only in the case of stationary Rossby modes can be transformed into the implicit equations in physical space. This is a consequence of the simple relations between the components of the different modes in that case. In addition a simple eigenvalue problem is given for the frequencies of the gravity waves. (orig.)

  18. PM10 modeling in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) by using multivariate adaptive regression splines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Paulino José García; Antón, Juan Carlos Álvarez; Vilán, José Antonio Vilán; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this research work is to build a regression model of the particulate matter up to 10 micrometers in size (PM10) by using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) at local scale. This research work explores the use of a nonparametric regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) which has the ability to approximate the relationship between the inputs and outputs, and express the relationship mathematically. In this sense, hazardous air pollutants or toxic air contaminants refer to any substance that may cause or contribute to an increase in mortality or serious illness, or that may pose a present or potential hazard to human health. To accomplish the objective of this study, the experimental dataset of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3) and dust (PM10) were collected over 3 years (2006-2008) and they are used to create a highly nonlinear model of the PM10 in the Oviedo urban nucleus (Northern Spain) based on the MARS technique. One main objective of this model is to obtain a preliminary estimate of the dependence between PM10 pollutant in the Oviedo urban area at local scale. A second aim is to determine the factors with the greatest bearing on air quality with a view to proposing health and lifestyle improvements. The United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establishes the limit values of the main pollutants in the atmosphere in order to ensure the health of healthy people. Firstly, this MARS regression model captures the main perception of statistical learning theory in order to obtain a good prediction of the dependence among the main pollutants in the Oviedo urban area. Secondly, the main advantages of MARS are its capacity to produce simple, easy-to-interpret models, its ability to estimate the contributions of the input variables, and its computational efficiency. Finally, on the basis of

  19. MLP based models to predict PM10, O3 concentrations, in Sines industrial area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durao, R.; Pereira, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    Sines is an important Portuguese industrial area located southwest cost of Portugal with important nearby protected natural areas. The main economical activities are related with this industrial area, the deep-water port, petrochemical and thermo-electric industry. Nevertheless, tourism is also an important economic activity especially in summer time with potential to grow. The aim of this study is to develop prediction models of pollutant concentration categories (e.g. low concentration and high concentration) in order to provide early warnings to the competent authorities who are responsible for the air quality management. The knowledge in advanced of pollutant high concentrations occurrence will allow the implementation of mitigation actions and the release of precautionary alerts to population. The regional air quality monitoring network consists in three monitoring stations where a set of pollutants' concentrations are registered on a continuous basis. From this set stands out the tropospheric ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) due to the high concentrations occurring in the region and their adverse effects on human health. Moreover, the major industrial plants of the region monitor SO2, NO2 and particles emitted flows at the principal chimneys (point sources), also on a continuous basis,. Therefore Artificial neuronal networks (ANN) were the applied methodology to predict next day pollutant concentrations; due to the ANNs structure they have the ability to capture the non-linear relationships between predictor variables. Hence the first step of this study was to apply multivariate exploratory techniques to select the best predictor variables. The classification trees methodology (CART) was revealed to be the most appropriate in this case.. Results shown that pollutants atmospheric concentrations are mainly dependent on industrial emissions and a complex combination of meteorological factors and the time of the year. In the second step, the Multi

  20. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A Lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-04-10

    The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models.Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data.The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia.Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]).The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest

  1. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demongeot Jacques

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI, issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001. An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007 provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]. The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately

  2. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-01-01

    Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]). The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error

  3. Characterization of the Hanford 300 Area Burial Grounds. Task III: fluid transport and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gee, G.W.; Simmons, C.S.

    1979-08-01

    In Task III, Fluid Transport and Modeling, a computer model was developed and applied to the 300 Area Burial Grounds to analyze the influence of potential evaporation and rainfall patterns on drainage. The model describes one-dimensional unsaturated flow. Fluid transport equations were evaluated to describe the driving forces of fluid flow. The data indicate that the major processes are evaporative drying, capillarity, and gravity flow. Thermally induced transport does not appear significant in the subsurface sediments of the area. Several empirical evaporation methods are available for assessing potential evaporation/evapotranspiration. Four methods were used with the unsaturated flow model. Ultimately, the Blaney-Criddle method was chosen for subsequent simulation examples because it relies only on the climatic data available and gave results comparable to the other methods tested. Simulations showed that a dry layer formation is important in controlling the soil-water balance in the profile. The surface dry layer acts as a mulch to retard the evaporative water losses and increase water storage. The most important climatic factor in determining drainage appears to be yearly rainfall distribution. When rainfall is distributed in fall or winter, during periods of low potential evaporation, both water storage and drainage are increased. Summer showers, on the other hand, were shown to add little to the annual water storage. Rainfall occurring in one year influences the subsequent annual drainage for several succeeding years because of annual changes in water storage capacity and the transient nature of unsaturated flow in the storage zone. 47 figures, 9 tables

  4. Cost-benefit analysis model: A tool for area-wide fruit fly management. Procedures manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enkerlin, W.; Mumford, J.; Leach, A.

    2007-03-01

    The Generic Fruit Fly Cost-Benefit Analysis Model assists in economic decision making associated with area-wide fruit fly control options. The FRUIT FLY COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS PROGRAM (available on 1 CD-ROM from the Joint FAO/IAEA Programme of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture) is an Excel 2000 Windows based program, for which all standard Windows and Excel conventions apply. The Model is user friendly and thus largely self-explanatory. Nevertheless, it includes a procedures manual that has been prepared to guide the user, and thus should be used together with the software. Please note that the table presenting the pest management options in the Introductory Page of the model is controlled by spin buttons and click boxes. These controls are linked to macros that hide non relevant tables and boxes. N.B. it is important that the medium level of security is selected from the Tools menu of Excel, to do this go to Tools|Macros|Security| and select Medium. When the file is opened a form will appear containing three buttons, click on the middle button, 'Enable Macros', so that the macros may be used. Ideally the model should be used as a support tool by working groups aiming at assessing the economic returns of different fruit fly control options (suppression, eradication, containment and prevention). The working group should include professionals in agriculture with experience in area-wide implementation of integrated pest management programmes, an economist or at least someone with basic knowledge in economics, and if relevant, an entomologist with some background in the application of the sterile insect technique (SIT)

  5. Landslide susceptibility mapping in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq: a comparison of different statistical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, A. A.; Gloaguen, R.; Andreani, L.; Rahnama, M.

    2015-03-01

    During the last decades, expansion of settlements into areas prone to landslides in Iraq has increased the importance of accurate hazard assessment. Susceptibility mapping provides information about hazardous locations and thus helps to potentially prevent infrastructure damage due to mass wasting. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare frequency ratio (FR), weight of evidence (WOE), logistic regression (LR) and probit regression (PR) approaches in combination with new geomorphological indices to determine the landslide susceptibility index (LSI). We tested these four methods in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq, where landslides occur frequently. For this purpose, we evaluated 16 geomorphological, geological and environmental predicting factors mainly derived from the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER) satellite. The available reference inventory includes 351 landslides representing a cumulative surface of 3.127 km2. This reference inventory was mapped from QuickBird data by manual delineation and partly verified by field survey. The areas under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and relative landslide density (R index) show that all models perform similarly and that focus should be put on the careful selection of proxies. The results indicate that the lithology and the slope aspects play major roles for landslide occurrences. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that using hypsometric integral as a prediction factor instead of slope curvature gives better results and increases the accuracy of the LSI.

  6. A hydrological prediction system based on the SVS land-surface scheme: efficient calibration of GEM-Hydro for streamflow simulation over the Lake Ontario basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    É. Gaborit

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This work explores the potential of the distributed GEM-Hydro runoff modeling platform, developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC over the last decade. More precisely, the aim is to develop a robust implementation methodology to perform reliable streamflow simulations with a distributed model over large and partly ungauged basins, in an efficient manner. The latest version of GEM-Hydro combines the SVS (Soil, Vegetation and Snow land-surface scheme and the WATROUTE routing scheme. SVS has never been evaluated from a hydrological point of view, which is done here for all major rivers flowing into Lake Ontario. Two established hydrological models are confronted to GEM-Hydro, namely MESH and WATFLOOD, which share the same routing scheme (WATROUTE but rely on different land-surface schemes. All models are calibrated using the same meteorological forcings, objective function, calibration algorithm, and basin delineation. GEM-Hydro is shown to be competitive with MESH and WATFLOOD: the NSE  √  (Nash–Sutcliffe criterion computed on the square root of the flows is for example equal to 0.83 for MESH and GEM-Hydro in validation on the Moira River basin, and to 0.68 for WATFLOOD. A computationally efficient strategy is proposed to calibrate SVS: a simple unit hydrograph is used for routing instead of WATROUTE. Global and local calibration strategies are compared in order to estimate runoff for ungauged portions of the Lake Ontario basin. Overall, streamflow predictions obtained using a global calibration strategy, in which a single parameter set is identified for the whole basin of Lake Ontario, show accuracy comparable to the predictions based on local calibration: the average NSE  √  in validation and over seven subbasins is 0.73 and 0.61, respectively for local and global calibrations. Hence, global calibration provides spatially consistent parameter values, robust performance at gauged locations, and reduces the

  7. A hydrological prediction system based on the SVS land-surface scheme: efficient calibration of GEM-Hydro for streamflow simulation over the Lake Ontario basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaborit, Étienne; Fortin, Vincent; Xu, Xiaoyong; Seglenieks, Frank; Tolson, Bryan; Fry, Lauren M.; Hunter, Tim; Anctil, François; Gronewold, Andrew D.

    2017-09-01

    This work explores the potential of the distributed GEM-Hydro runoff modeling platform, developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) over the last decade. More precisely, the aim is to develop a robust implementation methodology to perform reliable streamflow simulations with a distributed model over large and partly ungauged basins, in an efficient manner. The latest version of GEM-Hydro combines the SVS (Soil, Vegetation and Snow) land-surface scheme and the WATROUTE routing scheme. SVS has never been evaluated from a hydrological point of view, which is done here for all major rivers flowing into Lake Ontario. Two established hydrological models are confronted to GEM-Hydro, namely MESH and WATFLOOD, which share the same routing scheme (WATROUTE) but rely on different land-surface schemes. All models are calibrated using the same meteorological forcings, objective function, calibration algorithm, and basin delineation. GEM-Hydro is shown to be competitive with MESH and WATFLOOD: the NSE √ (Nash-Sutcliffe criterion computed on the square root of the flows) is for example equal to 0.83 for MESH and GEM-Hydro in validation on the Moira River basin, and to 0.68 for WATFLOOD. A computationally efficient strategy is proposed to calibrate SVS: a simple unit hydrograph is used for routing instead of WATROUTE. Global and local calibration strategies are compared in order to estimate runoff for ungauged portions of the Lake Ontario basin. Overall, streamflow predictions obtained using a global calibration strategy, in which a single parameter set is identified for the whole basin of Lake Ontario, show accuracy comparable to the predictions based on local calibration: the average NSE √ in validation and over seven subbasins is 0.73 and 0.61, respectively for local and global calibrations. Hence, global calibration provides spatially consistent parameter values, robust performance at gauged locations, and reduces the complexity and computation burden of the

  8. Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

    2017-11-01

    Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

  9. UCLA space-time area law model: A persuasive foundation for hadronization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abachi, S.; Buchanan, C.; Chien, A.; Chun, S.; Hartfiel, B.

    2007-01-01

    From the studies of rates and distributions of heavy quark (c,b) mesons we have developed additional evidence that hadron formation, at least in the simplest environment of e + e - collisions, is dominantly controlled by a space-time area law (''STAL''), an approach suggested by both non-perturbative QCD and relativistic string models. From the dynamics of heavy quarks whose classical space-time world-lines deviate significantly from the light-cone, we report the exact calculation of the relevant space-time area and the derivation of a Lorentz invariant variable, z eff , which reduces to the light-cone momentum fraction z for low mass quarks. Using z eff in the exponent of our fragmentation function in place of z, we find persuasive agreement with L=0,1 charmed and bottom meson data as well as for u,d,s L=0 states. Presuming STAL to be a valid first-order description for all these meson data, we find the scale of other possible second-order effects to be limited to ∝20% or less of the observed rates. The model favors a b-quark mass of ∝4.5 GeV. (orig.)

  10. Preliminary analysis for model development of groundwater evolution in Horonobe area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yasushi; Yui, Mikazu

    2003-03-01

    The preliminary analysis for model development of groundwater evolution in Horonobe area was performed with data at D-1, HDB-1 and HDB-2 bore hole where hydrogen / oxygen isotope concentration, mineral property in sedimentary rock and physico-chemical parameters (pH, Eh and ionic concentrations) were measured. As a result of analysis for hydrogen and oxygen isotope concentration, saline water in marine sediment was diluted by the mixing with shallow groundwater and diffusion. And as a result of analysis for a concentration of bicarbonate from the difference of pH values measured between in-situ and under air, the estimated in-situ concentration of bicarbonate differs from that measured under air. And minerals which were assumed to be equilibrium with groundwater were selected by thermodynamic calculation. This report presents the results of preliminary analysis for groundwater evolution by using data derived from D-1, HDB-1 and HDB-2 boring research. In order to establish the model which interprets the groundwater evolution as a next step, data which satisfy the representative in-situ property of groundwater chemistry in Horonobe area are needed. Reliable measurements for physico-chemical parameter and property of minerals in sedimentary rock in dominant layer and at the variety of depth are also needed. (author)

  11. Ground target geolocation based on digital elevation model for airborne wide-area reconnaissance system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Chuan; Ding, Yalin; Xu, Yongsen; Xiu, Jihong

    2018-01-01

    To obtain the geographical position of the ground target accurately, a geolocation algorithm based on the digital elevation model (DEM) is developed for an airborne wide-area reconnaissance system. According to the platform position and attitude information measured by the airborne position and orientation system and the gimbal angles information from the encoder, the line-of-sight pointing vector in the Earth-centered Earth-fixed coordinate frame is solved by the homogeneous coordinate transformation. The target longitude and latitude can be solved with the elliptical Earth model and the global DEM. The influences of the systematic error and measurement error on ground target geolocation calculation accuracy are analyzed by the Monte Carlo method. The simulation results show that this algorithm can improve the geolocation accuracy of ground target in rough terrain area obviously. The geolocation accuracy of moving ground target can be improved by moving average filtering (MAF). The validity of the geolocation algorithm is verified by the flight test in which the plane flies at a geodetic height of 15,000 m and the outer gimbal angle is <47°. The geolocation root mean square error of the target trajectory is <45 and <7 m after MAF.

  12. Model evaluation of faecal contamination in coastal areas affected by urban rivers receiving combined sewer overflows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibata, T; Kojima, K; Lee, S A; Furumai, H

    2014-01-01

    Odaiba seaside park is one of the most popular waterfronts in Tokyo Bay, but is easily affected by wet weather pollutant loads through combined sewer overflows (CSOs). The monitoring data of Escherichia coli clearly showed high faecal contamination after a rainfall event on 9-11 November 2007. We estimated the amounts of discharge volume and E. coli pollutant loads of urban rivers receiving CSO from rainfall chambers as well as pumping stations and primary effluent discharge. The result suggested that Sumida River and Meguro River were more influential to the Odaiba coastal area than other sources including the nearest wastewater treatment plant. Subsequently, we simulated the dynamic behaviour of E. coli by a three-dimensional (3D) hydro-dynamic and water quality model. The model simulation reproduced that E. coli concentration after the rainfall event increased rapidly at first and later gradually decreased. The simulations with and without inflow pollutant loads from urban rivers suggested that the E. coli concentration can be influenced by the Meguro River just after the rainfall event and Sumida River about 1 week later. From the spatial and temporal distribution of surface E. coli concentration, after at least 6 days from the rainfall event, high faecal contamination spread to the whole of the coastal area.

  13. The CLAIR model: Extension of Brodmann areas based on brain oscillations and connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Başar, Erol; Düzgün, Aysel

    2016-05-01

    Since the beginning of the last century, the localization of brain function has been represented by Brodmann areas, maps of the anatomic organization of the brain. They are used to broadly represent cortical structures with their given sensory-cognitive functions. In recent decades, the analysis of brain oscillations has become important in the correlation of brain functions. Moreover, spectral connectivity can provide further information on the dynamic connectivity between various structures. In addition, brain responses are dynamic in nature and structural localization is almost impossible, according to Luria (1966). Therefore, brain functions are very difficult to localize; hence, a combined analysis of oscillation and event-related coherences is required. In this study, a model termed as "CLAIR" is described to enrich and possibly replace the concept of the Brodmann areas. A CLAIR model with optimum function may take several years to develop, but this study sets out to lay its foundation. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Pre-analysis techniques applied to area-based correlation aiming Digital Terrain Model generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurício Galo

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Area-based matching is an useful procedure in some photogrammetric processes and its results are of crucial importance in applications such as relative orientation, phototriangulation and Digital Terrain Model generation. The successful determination of correspondence depends on radiometric and geometric factors. Considering these aspects, the use of procedures that previously estimate the quality of the parameters to be computed is a relevant issue. This paper describes these procedures and it is shown that the quality prediction can be computed before performing matching by correlation, trough the analysis of the reference window. This procedure can be incorporated in the correspondence process for Digital Terrain Model generation and Phototriangulation. The proposed approach comprises the estimation of the variance matrix of the translations from the gray levels in the reference window and the reduction of the search space using the knowledge of the epipolar geometry. As a consequence, the correlation process becomes more reliable, avoiding the application of matching procedures in doubtful areas. Some experiments with simulated and real data are presented, evidencing the efficiency of the studied strategy.

  15. Validation of a limited area model over Dome C, Antarctic Plateau, during winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallee, Hubert; Gorodetskaya, Irina V. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement, CNRS, 54, rue Moliere, BP. 96, St Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)

    2010-01-15

    The limited area model MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional) is validated over the Antarctic Plateau for the period 2004-2006, focussing on Dome C during the cold season. MAR simulations are made by initializing the model once and by forcing it through its lateral and top boundaries by the ECMWF operational analyses. Model outputs compare favourably with observations from automatic weather station (AWS), radiometers and atmospheric soundings. MAR is able to simulate the succession of cold and warm events which occur at Dome C during winter. Larger longwave downwelling fluxes (LWD) are responsible for higher surface air temperatures and weaker surface inversions during winter. Warm events are better simulated when the small Antarctic precipitating snow particles are taken into account in radiative transfer computations. MAR stratosphere cools during the cold season, with the coldest temperatures occurring in conjunction with warm events at the surface. The decrease of saturation specific humidity associated with these coldest temperatures is responsible for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) especially in August-September. PSCs then contribute to the surface warming by increasing the surface downwelling longwave flux. (orig.)

  16. Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

    2018-08-01

    This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Interpretation and modeling of a subsurface injection test, 200 East Area, Hanford, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smoot, J.L.; Lu, A.H.

    1994-11-01

    A tracer experiment was conducted in 1980 and 1981 in the unsaturated zone in the southeast portion of the Hanford 200 East Area near the Plutonium-Uranium Extraction (PUREX) facility. The field design consisted of a central injection well with 32 monitoring wells within an 8-m radius. Water containing radioactive and other tracers was injected weekly during the experiment. The unique features of the experiment were the documented control of the inputs, the experiment's three-dimensional nature, the in-situ measurement of radioactive tracers, and the use of multiple injections. The spacing of the test wells provided reasonable lag distribution for spatial correlation analysis. Preliminary analyses indicated spatial correlation on the order of 400 to 500 cm in the vertical direction. Previous researchers found that two-dimensional axisymmetric modeling of moisture content generally underpredicts lateral spreading and overpredicts vertical movement of the injected water. Incorporation of anisotropic hydraulic properties resulted in the best model predictions. Three-dimensional modeling incorporated the geologic heterogeneity of discontinuous layers and lenses of sediment apparent in the site geology. Model results were compared statistically with measured experimental data and indicate reasonably good agreement with vertical and lateral field moisture distributions

  18. Development of a Statistical Model for Forecasting Episodes of Visibility Degradation in the Denver Metropolitan Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, P. J.; Barbarick, D. E.; Osterburg, R. D.

    1995-03-01

    In 1990, the State of Colorado implemented a visibility standard of 0.076 km1 of beta extinction for the Denver metropolitan area. Meteorologists with Colorado's Air Pollution Control Division forecast high pollution days associated with visibility impairment as well as those due to high levels of the federal criteria pollutants. Visibility forecasts are made from a few hours up to about 26 h in advance of the period of interest. Here we discuss the key microscale, mesoscale, and synoptic-scale features associated with episodes of visibility impairment. Data from special studies, case studies, and the 22 NOAA Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services mesonet sites have been invaluable in identifying patterns associated with extremes in visibility conditions. A preliminary statistical forecast model has been developed using variables that represent many of these patterns. Six variables were selected from an initial pool of 27 to be used in a model based on linear logistic regression. These six variables include forecast measures of snow cover, surface pressures and a surface pressure gradient in eastern Colorado, relative humidity, and 500-mb ridge position. The initial testing of the model has been encouraging. The model correctly predicted 76% of the good visibility days and 67% of the poor visibility days for a test set of 171 days.

  19. A scenario and forecast model for Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area and volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne; Obenour, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    For almost three decades, the relative size of the hypoxic region on the Louisiana-Texas continental shelf has drawn scientific and policy attention. During that time, both simple and complex models have been used to explore hypoxia dynamics and to provide management guidance relating the size of the hypoxic zone to key drivers. Throughout much of that development, analyses had to accommodate an apparent change in hypoxic sensitivity to loads and often cull observations due to anomalous meteorological conditions. Here, we describe an adaptation of our earlier, simple biophysical model, calibrated to revised hypoxic area estimates and new hypoxic volume estimates through Bayesian estimation. This application eliminates the need to cull observations and provides revised hypoxic extent estimates with uncertainties, corresponding to different nutrient loading reduction scenarios. We compare guidance from this model application, suggesting an approximately 62% nutrient loading reduction is required to reduce Gulf hypoxia to the Action Plan goal of 5,000 km2, to that of previous applications. In addition, we describe for the first time, the corresponding response of hypoxic volume. We also analyze model results to test for increasing system sensitivity to hypoxia formation, but find no strong evidence of such change.

  20. Storm surge modeling of Superstorm Sandy in the New York City Metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benimoff, A. I.; Blanton, B. O.; Dzedzits, E.; Fritz, W. J.; Kress, M.; Muzio, P.; Sela, L.

    2013-12-01

    Even though the New York/New Jersey area does not lie within the typical 'hurricane belt', recent events and the historical record indicate that large infrequent tropical storms have had direct hits on the region, with impacts being amplified due to the nearly right angle bend in the coastline. The recent plan unveiled by New York City's Mayor Bloomberg lays out mitigation strategies to protect the region's communities, infrastructure, and assets from future storms, and numerical simulation of storm surge and wave hazards driven by potential hurricanes plays a central role in developing and evaluating these strategies. To assist in local planning, recovery, and decision-making, we have used the tide, storm surge, and wind wave model ADCIRC+SWAN to simulate storm surge in one of the most populated areas of the United States: the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area. We have generated a new high-resolution triangular finite-element model grid for the region from recent USGS data as well as recent city topographic maps at 2-foot (0.6m) contour intervals, nautical charts, and details of shipping channels. Our hindcast simulations are compared against Superstorm Sandy. We used the City University of New York High Performance Computing Center's Cray XE6tm at the College of Staten Island for these simulations. Hindcasting and analysis of the Superstorm Sandy storm surge and waves indicates that our simulations produce a reasonable representation of actual events. The grid will be used in an ADCIRC-based forecasting system implementation for the region.

  1. Thermal modelling. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundberg, Jan; Back, Paer-Erik; Bengtsson, Anna; Laendell, Maerta [Geo Innova AB, Linkoeping (Sweden)

    2005-08-01

    This report presents the thermal site descriptive model for the Forsmark area, version 1.2. The main objective of this report is to present the thermal modelling work where data has been identified, quality controlled, evaluated and summarised in order to make an upscaling to lithological domain level possible. The thermal conductivity at canister scale has been modelled for two different lithological domains (RFM029 and RFM012, both dominated by granite to granodiorite (101057)). A main modelling approach has been used to determine the mean value of the thermal conductivity. Two alternative/complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the spatial variability of the thermal conductivity at domain level. The thermal modelling approaches are based on the lithological model for the Forsmark area, version 1.2 together with rock type models constituted from measured and calculated (from mineral composition) thermal conductivities. Results indicate that the mean of thermal conductivity is expected to exhibit a small variation between the different domains, 3.46 W/(mxK) for RFM012 to 3.55 W/(mxK) for RFM029. The spatial distribution of the thermal conductivity does not follow a simple model. Lower and upper 95% confidence limits are based on the modelling results, but have been rounded of to only two significant figures. Consequently, the lower limit is 2.9 W/(mxK), while the upper is 3.8 W/(mxK). This is applicable to both the investigated domains. The temperature dependence is rather small with a decrease in thermal conductivity of 10.0% per 100 deg C increase in temperature for the dominating rock type. There are a number of important uncertainties associated with these results. One of the uncertainties considers the representative scale for the canister. Another important uncertainty is the methodological uncertainties associated with the upscaling of thermal conductivity from cm-scale to canister scale. In addition, the representativeness of rock samples is

  2. Loss model for off-design performance analysis of radial turbines with pivoting-vane, variable-area stators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meitner, P. L.; Glassman, A. J.

    1980-01-01

    An off-design performance loss model for a radial turbine with pivoting, variable-area stators is developed through a combination of analytical modeling and experimental data analysis. A viscous loss model is used for the variation in stator loss with setting angle, and stator vane end-clearance leakage effects are predicted by a clearance flow model. The variation of rotor loss coefficient with stator setting angle is obtained by means of an analytical matching of experimental data for a rotor that was tested with six stators, having throat areas from 20 to 144% of the design area. An incidence loss model is selected to obtain best agreement with experimental data. The stator vane end-clearance leakage model predicts increasing mass flow and decreasing efficiency as a result of end-clearances, with changes becoming significantly larger with decreasing stator area.

  3. Underperformance of African protected area networks and the case for new conservation models: insights from Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey, Peter A; Nyirenda, Vincent R; Barnes, Jonathan I; Becker, Matthew S; McRobb, Rachel; Tambling, Craig J; Taylor, W Andrew; Watson, Frederick G; t'Sas-Rolfes, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Many African protected areas (PAs) are not functioning effectively. We reviewed the performance of Zambia's PA network and provide insights into how their effectiveness might be improved. Zambia's PAs are under-performing in ecological, economic and social terms. Reasons include: a) rapidly expanding human populations, poverty and open-access systems in Game Management Areas (GMAs) resulting in widespread bushmeat poaching and habitat encroachment; b) underfunding of the Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) resulting in inadequate law enforcement; c) reliance of ZAWA on extracting revenues from GMAs to cover operational costs which has prevented proper devolution of user-rights over wildlife to communities; d) on-going marginalization of communities from legal benefits from wildlife; e) under-development of the photo-tourism industry with the effect that earnings are limited to a fraction of the PA network; f) unfavourable terms and corruption which discourage good practice and adequate investment by hunting operators in GMAs; g) blurred responsibilities regarding anti-poaching in GMAs resulting in under-investment by all stakeholders. The combined effect of these challenges has been a major reduction in wildlife densities in most PAs and the loss of habitat in GMAs. Wildlife fares better in areas with investment from the private and/or NGO sector and where human settlement is absent. There is a need for: elevated government funding for ZAWA; greater international donor investment in protected area management; a shift in the role of ZAWA such that they focus primarily on national parks while facilitating the development of wildlife-based land uses by other stakeholders elsewhere; and new models for the functioning of GMAs based on joint-ventures between communities and the private and/or NGO sector. Such joint-ventures should provide defined communities with ownership of land, user-rights over wildlife and aim to attract long-term private/donor investment. These

  4. Models for the runoff from a glaciated catchment area using measurements of environmental isotope contents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behrens, H.; Moser, H.; Oerter, H.; Rauert, W.; Stichler, W.; Ambach, W.; Kirchlechner, P.

    1979-01-01

    For several years, in the glaciated catchment area of the Rofenache (Oetztal Alps, Austria), measurements have been made of the environmental isotopes 2 H, 18 O and 3 H in precipitation, snow and ice samples and in the runoff. Furthermore, the electrolytic conductivity of runoff samples was measured and tracing experiments were made with fluorescent dyes. From core samples drilled in the accumulation area of the Vernagtferner, the gross beta activity was investigated and compared with the data from 2 H, 3 H and 18 O analyses and the data from mass balance studies. It is shown that the annual net balance from previous years can be recovered on temperate glaciers using environmental isotope techniques. From the diurnal variations of the 2 H and 3 H contents and the electrolytic conductivity, the following proportions in the runoff of the Vernagtferner catchment area were obtained during a 24-hour interval at a time of strong ablation (August 1976): about 50% ice meltwater, 25% direct runoff of firn and snow meltwater, and 7% of mineralized groundwater. The rest of the runoff consists of non-mineralized meltwater seeping from the glacier body. The annual variations of the 2 H and 3 H contents in the runoff of the glaciated catchment area permit conclusions on the time sequence of the individual ablation periods, and on the residence time, on the basis of model concepts. The residence times of approximately 100 days or four years, respectively, are obtained from the decrease in the 2 H content at the end of the ablation period and from the variation of the 3 H content in the winter discharge. (author)

  5. [Two compartment model of body composition and abdominal fat area in postmenopausal women - pilot study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milewska, Magdalena; Mioduszewska, Milena; Pańczyk, Mariusz; Kucharska, Alicja; Sińska, Beata; Dąbrowska-Bender, Marta; Michota-Katulska, Ewa; Zegan, Magdalena; Szabla, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Both menopausal period and aging have influence on body composition, increase of total body fat and visceral fat in particular. We should be aware that changes in body composition, mainly fat translocation to abdominal region, can occur without significant changes in body weight. Therefore quantitative abdominal fat assessment should be our aim. Body composition analysis based on two compartment model and abdominal fat area assessment in cross section. Subjects in postmenopausal period (41 women) were recruited for this study and divided into 2 groups: group 1 - women aged 45-56 years and group 2 - women aged 57-79 years. Body composition analysis and abdominal fat area assessment were conducted by using bioelectrical impedance method with BioScan 920 (Maltron int.) accordingly with standardized procedure. Women in early postmenopausal stage (Group 1) had statistically significant lower total body fat percentage in comparison with women in late postmenopausal period (Group 2) (41.09 ± 7.72% vs. 50.7 ± 9.88%, p=0.0021). Also women in group 1 were characterized by significant lower visceral fat area (VAT) as well as subcutaneous fat area (SAT) in comparison with group 2 (respectively VAT 119.25 ± 30.09 cm2 vs. 199.36 ± 87.38 cm2, p=0.0011; SAT 175.19 ±57.67 cm2 vs. 223.4±74.29 cm2, p=0.0336). According to VAT criteria (>120 cm2), 44% of women in group 1 and 80% in group 2 had excess of visceral fat. Both total body fat and intra-abdominal fat increased with age, independently of weight changes.

  6. Models for the runoff from a glacierized catchment area using measurements of environmental isotope contents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behrens, H.; Moser, H.; Oerter, H.; Rauert, W.; Stichler, W.; Ambach, W.; Kirchlechner, P.

    1978-01-01

    In the glacierized catchment area of the Rofenache (Oetztal Alps, Austria) during several years measurements have been made of the environmental isotopes 2 H, 18 O and 3 H in the precipitation, in snow and ice samples and in the runoff. Furthermore the electrolytic conductivity of runoff samples was measured and tracing experiments were made with fluorescent dyes. From core samples drilled in the accumulation area of the Vernagtferner, the gross beta activity was investigated and compared with both, the data from 2 H, 3 H und 18 O analyses and the data from mass balance studies. It is shown that the annual net balance from previous years can be recovered on temperate glaciers using environmental isotope techniques. From the diurnal variations of the 2 H and 3 H contents and the electrolytic conductivity the following proportions in the runoff of the Vernagtferner catchment area were obtained during a 24-hour interval at a time of strong ablation (August 1976): about 50% of ice melt water, 25% of direct runoff fo firn- and snow melt water, and 7% of mineralized groundwater. The rest of the runoff consists of not mineralized melt water seeping from the glacier body. The annual variations of the 2 H and 3 H contents in the runoff of the glacierized catchment area permit conclusions on the time sequence of the individual ablation periods and on the residence time on the basis of model concepts. The residence times of approximately 100 days or 4 years, respectively, are obtained from the decrease in the 2 H content at the end of the ablation period and from the variation of the 3 H content in the winter discharge. (orig.) [de

  7. ELEMENTS FOR A MODEL OF ENTREPRENEURIAL SCHOOL FOR WOMEN IN RURAL AREAS OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarcza Teodora Mihaela

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Romanian mentality, especially in rural areas is deeply influenced by culture, literature and history of the Romanian people. This proves to be both adaptable and rooted in the old Romanian traditions and customs. In the last two decades, the transition from socialism to capitalism, modern society, the socio-economic development of the country has left strong impressions on the way of thought, expression and action of the Romanian people. Women in rural areas are no exception. As some groups of people interested in their development of social-economic scale, rural women are trying to adapt, to evolve, to overcome the barriers imposed at psychologically, socially and financially. The paper highlights the results of a survey on a sample of 979 women students in the project "Entrepreneurship and Equal Opportunities. An inter-regional model for women entrepreneurial school "(AntrES acronym, which certified mediators intention to initiate their own business.The results of questionnaires have provided important information about the character, ambition, motivation, courage, and moral support and financial support to women entrepreneurs based in Romania, including those in rural areas. The information obtained inetrmediul "I shattered" 7 myths about starting a business in our country. Romanian entrepreneur spirit, women in rural areas in Romania is not only a manifestation of strong desire to improve living standards in financial terms, but rather an "effort" to improve and "beauty" of the individual, family, environment and society we belong! In developed countries, at its home, female entrepreneurship is trying to reform, to seek new solutions to rethink the principles, to exercise imagination, to learn. Here, in Romania standard behavior still predominates. Female entrepreneurs are doing what everyone else in the same category does. The future however belongs to those who will opt diversity, surprise, excitement, personalization. How could this

  8. A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pascale

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability.

    This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency.

    This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases:

    1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard;

    2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system;

    3. the definition of the

  9. [Water environmental capacity calculation model for the rivers in drinking water source conservation area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ding-jiang; Lü, Jun; Shen, Ye-na; Jin, Shu-quan; Shi, Yi-ming

    2008-09-01

    Based on the one-dimension model for water environmental capacity (WEC) in river, a new model for the WEC estimation in river-reservoir system was developed in drinking water source conservation area (DWSCA). In the new model, the concept was introduced that the water quality target of the rivers in DWSCA was determined by the water quality demand of reservoir for drinking water source. It implied that the WEC of the reservoir could be used as the water quality control target at the reach-end of the upstream rivers in DWSCA so that the problems for WEC estimation might be avoided that the differences of the standards for a water quality control target between in river and in reservoir, such as the criterions differences for total phosphorus (TP)/total nitrogen (TN) between in reservoir and in river according to the National Surface Water Quality Standard of China (GB 3838-2002), and the difference of designed hydrology conditions for WEC estimation between in reservoir and in river. The new model described the quantitative relationship between the WEC of drinking water source and of the river, and it factually expressed the continuity and interplay of these low water areas. As a case study, WEC for the rivers in DWSCA of Laohutan reservoir located in southeast China was estimated using the new model. Results indicated that the WEC for TN and TP was 65.05 t x a(-1) and 5.05 t x a(-1) in the rivers of the DWSCA, respectively. According to the WEC of Laohutan reservoir and current TN and TP quantity that entered into the rivers, about 33.86 t x a(-1) of current TN quantity should be reduced in the DWSCA, while there was 2.23 t x a(-1) of residual WEC of TP in the rivers. The modeling method was also widely applicable for the continuous water bodies with different water quality targets, especially for the situation of higher water quality control target in downstream water body than that in upstream.

  10. E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Vadose Zone Model: Confirmation of Water Mass Balance for Subsidence Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dyer, J. A. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-11-30

    In preparation for the next revision of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) Performance Assessment (PA), a mass balance model was developed in Microsoft Excel to confirm correct implementation of intact- and subsided-area infiltration profiles for the proposed closure cap in the PORFLOW vadose-zone model. The infiltration profiles are based on the results of Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model simulations for both intact and subsided cases.

  11. Modeling And Simulation As The Basis For Hybridity In The Graphic Discipline Learning/Teaching Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Žiljak Vujić

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Only some fifteen years have passed since the scientific graphics discipline was established. In the transition period from the College of Graphics to «Integrated Graphic Technology Studies» to the contemporary Faculty of Graphics Arts with the University in Zagreb, three main periods of development can be noted: digital printing, computer prepress and automatic procedures in postpress packaging production. Computer technology has enabled a change in the methodology of teaching graphics technology and studying it on the level of secondary and higher education. The task has been set to create tools for simulating printing processes in order to master the program through a hybrid system consisting of methods that are separate in relation to one another: learning with the help of digital models and checking in the actual real system. We are setting a hybrid project for teaching because the overall acquired knowledge is the result of completely different methods. The first method is on the free programs level functioning without consequences. Everything remains as a record in the knowledge database that can be analyzed, statistically processed and repeated with new parameter values of the system being researched. The second method uses the actual real system where the results are in proving the value of new knowledge and this is something that encourages and stimulates new cycles of hybrid behavior in mastering programs. This is the area where individual learning incurs. The hybrid method allows the possibility of studying actual situations on a computer model, proving it on an actual real model and entering the area of learning envisaging future development.

  12. Modeling and Simulation as the Basis for Hybridity in the Graphic Discipline Learning/Teaching Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilko Ziljak

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Only some fifteen years have passed since the scientific graphics discipline was established. In the transition period from the College of Graphics to «Integrated Graphic Technology Studies» to the contemporary Faculty of Graphics Arts with the University in Zagreb, three main periods of development can be noted: digital printing, computer prepress and automatic procedures in postpress packaging production. Computer technology has enabled a change in the methodology of teaching graphics technology and studying it on the level of secondary and higher education. The task has been set to create tools for simulating printing processes in order to master the program through a hybrid system consisting of methods that are separate in relation to one another: learning with the help of digital models and checking in the actual real system.  We are setting a hybrid project for teaching because the overall acquired knowledge is the result of completely different methods. The first method is on the free programs level functioning without consequences. Everything remains as a record in the knowledge database that can be analyzed, statistically processed and repeated with new parameter values of the system being researched. The second method uses the actual real system where the results are in proving the value of new knowledge and this is something that encourages and stimulates new cycles of hybrid behavior in mastering programs. This is the area where individual learning incurs. The hybrid method allows the possibility of studying actual situations on a computer model, proving it on an actual real model and entering the area of learning envisaging future development.

  13. Testing the methodology for site descriptive modelling. Application for the Laxemar area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Johan [JA Streamflow AB, Aelvsjoe (Sweden); Berglund, Johan [SwedPower AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Follin, Sven [SF Geologic AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Hakami, Eva [Itasca Geomekanik AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Halvarson, Jan [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, Stockholm (Sweden); Hermanson, Jan [Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Laaksoharju, Marcus [Geopoint (Sweden); Rhen, Ingvar [Sweco VBB/VIAK, Stockholm (Sweden); Wahlgren, C.H. [Sveriges Geologiska Undersoekning, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2002-08-01

    A special project has been conducted where the currently available data from the Laxemar area, which is part of the Simpevarp site, have been evaluated and interpreted into a Site Descriptive Model covering: geology, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry and rock mechanics. Description of the surface ecosystem has been omitted, since it was re-characterised in another, parallel, project. Furthermore, there has been no evaluation of transport properties. The project is primarily a methodology test. The lessons learnt will be implemented in the Site Descriptive Modelling during the coming site investigation. The intent of the project has been to explore whether available methodology for Site Descriptive Modelling based on surface and borehole data is adequate and to identify potential needs for development and improvement in the methodology. The project has developed, with limitations in scope, a Site Descriptive Model in local scale, corresponding to the situation after completion of the Initial Site Investigations for the Laxemar area (i.e. 'version 1.2' using the vocabulary of the general execution program for the site investigations). The Site Descriptive Model should be reasonable, but should not be regarded as a 'real' model. There are limitations both in input data and in the scope of the analysis. The measured (primary) data constitute a wide range of different measurement results including data from two deep core drilled boreholes. These data both need to be checked for consistency and to be interpreted into a format more amenable for three-dimensional modelling. Examples of such evaluations are estimation of surface geology, lineament interpretation, geological single hole interpretation, hydrogeological single hole interpretation and assessment of hydrogeochemical data. Furthermore, while cross discipline interpretation is encouraged there is also a need for transparency. This means that the evaluations first are made within each discipline

  14. User Delay Cost Model and Facilities Maintenance Cost Model for a Terminal Control Area : Volume 2. User's Manual and Program Documentation for the User Delay Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-05-01

    The User Delay Cost Model (UDCM) is a Monte Carlo simulation of certain classes of movement of air traffic in the Boston Terminal Control Area (TCA). It incorporates a weather module, an aircraft generation module, a facilities module, and an air con...

  15. Flood evolution assessment and monitoring using hydrological modelling techniques: analysis of the inundation areas at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podhoranyi, M.; Kuchar, S.; Portero, A.

    2016-08-01

    The primary objective of this study is to present techniques that cover usage of a hydrodynamic model as the main tool for monitoring and assessment of flood events while focusing on modelling of inundation areas. We analyzed the 2010 flood event (14th May - 20th May) that occurred in the Moravian-Silesian region (Czech Republic). Under investigation were four main catchments: Opava, Odra, Olše and Ostravice. Four hydrodynamic models were created and implemented into the Floreon+ platform in order to map inundation areas that arose during the flood event. In order to study the dynamics of the water, we applied an unsteady flow simulation for the entire area (HEC-RAS 4.1). The inundation areas were monitored, evaluated and recorded semi-automatically by means of the Floreon+ platform. We focused on information about the extent and presence of the flood areas. The modeled flooded areas were verified by comparing them with real data from different sources (official reports, aerial photos and hydrological networks). The study confirmed that hydrodynamic modeling is a very useful tool for mapping and monitoring of inundation areas. Overall, our models detected 48 inundation areas during the 2010 flood event.

  16. Effect of uncertainty in Digital Surface Models on the boundary of inundated areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nalbantis, I.; Papageorgaki, I.; Sioras, P.; Ioannidis, Ch.

    2012-04-01

    The planning, design and operation of flood damage reduction works or non-structural measures require the construction of maps that indicate zones to be potentially inundated during floods. Referring to floods due to heavy rainfall, the common procedure for flood mapping consists of the following five computational steps: (1) Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall; (2) construction of design hyetographs for various return periods; (3) construction of the related direct runoff hydrographs; (4) routing of these hydrographs through the hydrographic network; (5) mapping of the inundated area that corresponds to the temporally maximum depth for each location in the flood plain. Steps 3 through 5 require the use of spatial information which can be easily obtained from a Digital Surface Model (DSM). The DSM contains grid-based elevations of the ground or overlying objects that influence the propagation of flood waves. In this work, the SCS-CN method is used in step 3 in combination with a synthetic Unit Hydrograph based on the SCS dimensionless Unit Hydrograph. In step 4, the full one-dimensional Saint Venant equations for non-uniform unsteady flow on fixed bed are used, which are numerically solved. The impact of uncertainty in the DSM on the inundated area boundary is investigated. For this the Monte Carlo simulation method is employed to produce a large number of erroneous DSMs through introducing errors in elevation with a standard deviation equal to σ. These DSMs are then used for delineating potentially flooded areas. The standard deviation of the distance (from the riverbed axis) of the boundary of these areas, herein denoted as σF, is used as the measure of the resulting uncertainty. The link between σ and σF is examined for a spectrum of large return periods (100 to 10000). A computer experiment was set up based on data from two drainage basins. The first basin is located in East Attica and is drained by a branch of the Erasinos Torrent named the South

  17. Monitoring Water Resources in Pastoral Areas of East Africa Using Satellite Data and Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemu, H.; Senay, G. B.; Velpuri, N.; Asante, K. O.

    2008-12-01

    The nomadic pastoral communities in East Africa heavily depend on small water bodies and artificial lakes for domestic and livestock uses. The shortage of water in the region has made these water resources of great importance to them and sometimes even the reason for conflicts amongst rival communities in the region. Satellite-based data has significantly transformed the way we track and estimate hydrological processes such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. This approach has been particularly useful in remote places where conventional station-based weather networks are scarce. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data were extracted for the study region. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data were used to extract the climatic parameters needed to calculate reference evapotranspiration. The elevation data needed to delineate the watersheds were extracted from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) with spatial resolution of 90m. The waterholes (most of which have average surface area less than a hectare) were identified using Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images with a spatial resolution of 15 m. As part of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) funded enhancement to a livestock early warning decision support system, a simple hydrologic water balance model was developed to estimate daily waterhole depth variations. The model was run for over 10 years from 1998 till 2008 for 10 representative waterholes in the region. Although there were no independent datasets to validate the results, the temporal patterns captured both the seasonal and inter-annual variations, depicting known drought and flood years. Future research includes the installation of staff-gauges for model calibration and validation. The simple modeling approach demonstrated the effectiveness of integrating dynamic coarse resolution datasets such as TRMM with

  18. Ecohydrology in Mediterranean areas: a numerical model to describe growing seasons out of phase with precipitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Pumo

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The probabilistic description of soil moisture dynamics is a relatively new topic in hydrology. The most common ecohydrological models start from a stochastic differential equation describing the soil water balance, where the unknown quantity, the soil moisture, depends both on spaces and time. Most of the solutions existing in literature are obtained in a probabilistic framework and under steady-state condition; even if this last condition allows the analytical handling of the problem, it has considerably simplified the same problem by subtracting generalities from it.

    The steady-state hypothesis, appears perfectly applicable in arid and semiarid climatic areas like those of African's or middle American's savannas, but it seems to be no more valid in areas with Mediterranean climate, where, notoriously, the wet season foregoes the growing season, recharging water into the soil. This moisture stored at the beginning of the growing season (known as soil moisture initial condition has a great importance, especially for deep-rooted vegetation, by enabling survival in absence of rainfalls during the growing season and, however, keeping the water stress low during the first period of the same season.

    The aim of this paper is to analyze the soil moisture dynamics using a simple non-steady numerical ecohydrological model. The numerical model here proposed is able to reproduce soil moisture probability density function, obtained analytically in previous studies for different climates and soils in steady-state conditions; consequently it can be used to compute both the soil moisture time-profile and the vegetation static water stress time-profile in non-steady conditions.

    Here the differences between the steady-analytical and the non-steady numerical probability density functions are analyzed, showing how the proposed numerical model is able to capture the effects of winter recharge on the soil moisture. The dynamic

  19. Gbm.auto: A software tool to simplify spatial modelling and Marine Protected Area planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Officer, Rick; Clarke, Maurice; Reid, David G.; Brophy, Deirdre

    2017-01-01

    .auto for management in various settings By bridging the gap between advanced statistical methods for species distribution modelling and conservation science, management and policy, these tools can allow improved spatial abundance predictions, and therefore better management, decision-making, and conservation. Although this package was built to support spatial management of a data-limited marine elasmobranch fishery, it should be equally applicable to spatial abundance modelling, area protection, and stakeholder engagement in various scenarios. PMID:29216310

  20. Gbm.auto: A software tool to simplify spatial modelling and Marine Protected Area planning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Dedman

    tools can allow improved spatial abundance predictions, and therefore better management, decision-making, and conservation. Although this package was built to support spatial management of a data-limited marine elasmobranch fishery, it should be equally applicable to spatial abundance modelling, area protection, and stakeholder engagement in various scenarios.

  1. Impact of biogenic emissions on ozone formation in the Mediterranean area - a BEMA modelling study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thunis, P.; Cuvelier, C.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this modelling study is to understand and quantify the influence of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions on the formation of tropospheric ozone in the Burriana area (north of Valencia) on the east coast of Spain. The mesoscale modelling system used consists of the meteorology/transport module TVM and the chemical reaction mechanism RACM. The results of the model simulations are validated and compared with the data collected during the biogenic emissions in the mediterranean area (BEMA) field campaign that took place in June 1997. Anthropogenic and biogenic emission inventories have been constructed with an hourly resolution. Averaged (over the land area and over 24 h) emission fluxes for AVOC, anthropogenic NO x , BVOC and biogenic NO x are given by 16.0, 9.9, 6.2, and 0.7 kg km -2 day -1 , respectively. The impact of biogenic emissions is investigated on peak ozone values by performing simulations with and without biogenic emissions; while keeping anthropogenic emissions constant. The impact on ozone formation is also studied in combination with some anthropogenic emissions reduction strategies, i.e. when anthropogenic VOC emissions and/or NO x emissions are reduced. A factor separation technique is applied to isolate the impact due to biogenic emissions from the overall impact due to biogenic and anthropogenic emissions together. The results indicate that the maximum impact of biogenic emissions on ozone formation represents at the most 10 ppb, while maximum ozone values are of the order of 100 ppb. At different locations the maximum impact is reached at different times of the day depending on the arrival time of the sea breeze. It is also shown that this impact does not coincide in time with the maximum simulated ozone concentrations that are reached over the day. By performing different emission reduction scenarios, BVOC impacts are found to be sensitive mainly to NO x , and not to AVOC. Finally, it is shown that amongst the various

  2. Regional groundwater flow model for C, K. L. and P reactor areas, Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flach, G.P.

    2000-02-11

    A regional groundwater flow model encompassing approximately 100 mi2 surrounding the C, K, L, and P reactor areas has been developed. The reactor flow model is designed to meet the planning objectives outlined in the General Groundwater Strategy for Reactor Area Projects by providing a common framework for analyzing groundwater flow, contaminant migration and remedial alternatives within the Reactor Projects team of the Environmental Restoration Department. The model provides a quantitative understanding of groundwater flow on a regional scale within the near surface aquifers and deeper semi-confined to confined aquifers. The model incorporates historical and current field characterization data up through Spring 1999. Model preprocessing is automated so that future updates and modifications can be performed quickly and efficiently. The CKLP regional reactor model can be used to guide characterization, perform scoping analyses of contaminant transport, and serve as a common base for subsequent finer-scale transport and remedial/feasibility models for each reactor area.

  3. Regional groundwater flow model for C, K. L. and P reactor areas, Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flach, G.P.

    2000-01-01

    A regional groundwater flow model encompassing approximately 100 mi2 surrounding the C, K, L, and P reactor areas has been developed. The reactor flow model is designed to meet the planning objectives outlined in the General Groundwater Strategy for Reactor Area Projects by providing a common framework for analyzing groundwater flow, contaminant migration and remedial alternatives within the Reactor Projects team of the Environmental Restoration Department. The model provides a quantitative understanding of groundwater flow on a regional scale within the near surface aquifers and deeper semi-confined to confined aquifers. The model incorporates historical and current field characterization data up through Spring 1999. Model preprocessing is automated so that future updates and modifications can be performed quickly and efficiently. The CKLP regional reactor model can be used to guide characterization, perform scoping analyses of contaminant transport, and serve as a common base for subsequent finer-scale transport and remedial/feasibility models for each reactor area

  4. Measurements and modelling of atmospheric pollution over the Paris area: an overview of the ESQUIF Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menut

    2000-11-01

    Full Text Available The "Étude et Simulation de la QUalité de l'air en Ile de France" (ESQUIF project is the first integrated project dedicated to the study of the processes leading to air pollution events over the Paris area. The project was carried out over two years (summer 1998 to winter 2000 to document all types of meteorological conditions favourable to air quality degradation, and in particular to photo oxydant formation. The goals of ESQUIF are (1 to improve our understanding of the relevant chemical and dynamical processes and, in turn, improve their parametrizations in numerical models, and (2 to improve and validate existing models dedicated to pollution analysis, scenarios and/or forecasting, by establishing a comprehensive and thorough database. We present the rationale of the ESQUIF project and we describe the experimental set-up. We also report on the first experiments which took place during the summer of 1998 involving surface networks, and remote sensing instruments as well as several aircraft. Focusing on three days of August 1998, the relative contributions of long-range transported and locally-produced ozone to the elevated ozone concentrations observed during this period are discussed and chemistry-transport model preliminary results on this period are compared to measurements.Key words: Atmospheric composition and structure (pollution – urban and regional; troposphere – composition and chemistry – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology

  5. Measurements and modelling of atmospheric pollution over the Paris area: an overview of the ESQUIF project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menut, L; Vautard, R; Flamant, P H [Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique; Flamant, C; Beekmann, M; Megie, G; Sicard, M [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 91 - Verrieres-le-Buisson (France). Service d' Aeronomie; Abonnel, C; Lefebvre, M P; Lossec, B [Meteo-France, 75 - Paris (France); Chazette, P; Martin, D [CNRS (France). Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement; Gombert, D [AIRPARIF, Paris (France); Guedalia, D [CNRS-Universite Paul Sabatier (France). Lab. d' Aerologie; Kley, D [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany); Perros, P; Toupance, G [CNRS (France). Lab. Interuniversitaire des Systemes Atmospheriques

    2000-11-01

    The ''etude et simulation de la qualite de l'air en ile de France'' (ESQUIF) project is the first integrated project dedicated to the study of the processes leading to air pollution events over the Paris area. The project was carried out over two years (summer 1998 to winter 2000) to document all types of meteorological conditions favourable to air quality degradation, and in particular to photo oxydant formation. The goals of ESQUIF are (1) to improve our understanding of the relevant chemical and dynamical processes and, in turn, improve their parametrizations in numerical models, and (2) to improve and validate existing models dedicated to pollution analysis, scenarios and/or forecasting, by establishing a comprehensive and thorough database. We present the rationale of the ESQUIF project and we describe the experimental set-up. We also report on the first experiments which took place during the summer of 1998 involving surface networks, and remote sensing instruments as well as several aircraft. Focusing on three days of August 1998, the relative contributions of long-range transported and locally-produced ozone to the elevated ozone concentrations observed during this period are discussed and chemistry-transport model preliminary results on this period are compared to measurements. (orig.)

  6. UNSAT-H infiltration model calibration at the Subsurface Disposal Area, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martian, P.

    1995-10-01

    Soil moisture monitoring data from the expanded neutron probe monitoring network located at the Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA) of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) were used to calibrate numerical infiltration models for 15 locations within and near the SDA. These calibrated models were then used to simulate infiltration into the SDA surficial sediments and underlying basalts for the entire operational period of the SDA (1952--1995). The purpose of performing the simulations was to obtain a time variant infiltration source term for future subsurface pathway modeling efforts as part of baseline risk assessment or performance assessments. The simulation results also provided estimates of the average recharge rate for the simulation period and insight into infiltration patterns at the SDA. These results suggest that the average aquifer recharge rate below the SDA may be at least 8 cm/yr and may be as high as 12 cm/yr. These values represent 38 and 57% of the average annual precipitation occurring at the INEL, respectively. The simulation results also indicate that the maximum evaporative depth may vary between 28 and 148 cm and is highly dependent on localized lithology within the SDA

  7. Electrical Resistivity Models in Geological Formations in the Southern Area of the East of Cuba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Antonio García-Gutiérrez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to develop electrical resistivity models in geological formations of greater interest for geological engineering in the southern area of the East of Cuba. A procedure for the generalization of the geo-electrical database was prepared to generate the referred geo-electrical models. A total of 38 works with 895 vertical electrical surveys, of which 317 (35.4% located near (parametrical drills. Three models for the Paso Real formation and one for the Capdevila, the most distributed in the region under investigation were defined. The surface quartz sands from the municipality of Sandino were identified to have higher electrical resistivity averages (1241 Ω•m, while they do not exceed 86 Ω•m in the lower horizons to resolve basic tasks of the geological engineering investigations. The assessment of the cover clayey sandy soils was satisfactory in both geological formations while the determination of the water table depth was unfavorable. The remaining tasks varied between relatively favorable to unfavorable according to the geological formations.

  8. Mathematical model of small water-plane area twin-hull and application in marine simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiufeng; Lyu, Zhenwang; Yin, Yong; Jin, Yicheng

    2013-09-01

    Small water-plane area twin-hull (SWATH) has drawn the attention of many researchers due to its good sea-keeping ability. In this paper, MMG's idea of separation was used to perform SWATH movement modeling and simulation; respectively the forces and moment of SWATH were divided into bare hull, propeller, rudder at the fluid hydrodynamics, etc. Wake coefficient at the propellers which reduces thrust coefficient, and rudder mutual interference forces among the hull and propeller, for the calculation of SWATH, were all considered. The fourth-order Runge-Kutta method of integration was used by solving differential equations, in order to get SWATH's movement states. As an example, a turning test at full speed and full starboard rudder of `Seagull' craft is shown. The simulation results show the SWATH's regular pattern and trend of motion. It verifies the correctness of the mathematical model of the turning movement. The SWATH's mathematical model is applied to marine simulator in order to train the pilots or seamen, or safety assessment for ocean engineering project. Lastly, the full mission navigation simulating system (FMNSS) was determined to be a successful virtual reality technology application sample in the field of navigation simulation.

  9. An ecological assessment of pasturelands in the Balkhash area of Kazakhstan with remote sensing and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebed, L; Qi, J; Heilman, P

    2012-01-01

    The 187 million hectares of pasturelands in Kazakhstan play a key role in the nation’s economy, as livestock production accounted for 54% of total agricultural production in 2010. However, more than half of these lands have been degraded as a result of unregulated grazing practices. Therefore, effective long term ecological monitoring of pasturelands in Kazakhstan is imperative to ensure sustainable pastureland management. As a case study in this research, we demonstrated how the ecological conditions could be assessed with remote sensing technologies and pastureland models. The example focuses on the southern Balkhash area with study sites on a foothill plain with Artemisia-ephemeral plants and a sandy plain with psammophilic vegetation in the Turan Desert. The assessment was based on remotely sensed imagery and meteorological data, a geobotanical archive and periodic ground sampling. The Pasture agrometeorological model was used to calculate biological, ecological and economic indicators to assess pastureland condition. The results showed that field surveys, meteorological observations, remote sensing and ecological models, such as Pasture, could be combined to effectively assess the ecological conditions of pasturelands and provide information about forage production that is critically important for balancing grazing and ecological conservation. (letter)

  10. Measurements and modelling of atmospheric pollution over the Paris area: an overview of the ESQUIF Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menut

    Full Text Available The "Étude et Simulation de la QUalité de l'air en Ile de France" (ESQUIF project is the first integrated project dedicated to the study of the processes leading to air pollution events over the Paris area. The project was carried out over two years (summer 1998 to winter 2000 to document all types of meteorological conditions favourable to air quality degradation, and in particular to photo oxydant formation. The goals of ESQUIF are (1 to improve our understanding of the relevant chemical and dynamical processes and, in turn, improve their parametrizations in numerical models, and (2 to improve and validate existing models dedicated to pollution analysis, scenarios and/or forecasting, by establishing a comprehensive and thorough database. We present the rationale of the ESQUIF project and we describe the experimental set-up. We also report on the first experiments which took place during the summer of 1998 involving surface networks, and remote sensing instruments as well as several aircraft. Focusing on three days of August 1998, the relative contributions of long-range transported and locally-produced ozone to the elevated ozone concentrations observed during this period are discussed and chemistry-transport model preliminary results on this period are compared to measurements.

    Key words: Atmospheric composition and structure (pollution – urban and regional; troposphere – composition and chemistry – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology

  11. Feedforward and feedback projections of caudal belt and parabelt areas of auditory cortex: refining the hierarchical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy A Hackett

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Our working model of the primate auditory cortex recognizes three major regions (core, belt, parabelt, subdivided into thirteen areas. The connections between areas are topographically ordered in a manner consistent with information flow along two major anatomical axes: core-belt-parabelt and caudal-rostral. Remarkably, most of the connections supporting this model were revealed using retrograde tracing techniques. Little is known about laminar circuitry, as anterograde tracing of axon terminations has rarely been used. The purpose of the present study was to examine the laminar projections of three areas of auditory cortex, pursuant to analysis of all areas. The selected areas were: middle lateral belt (ML; caudomedial belt (CM; and caudal parabelt (CPB. Injections of anterograde tracers yielded data consistent with major features of our model, and also new findings that compel modifications. Results supporting the model were: 1 feedforward projection from ML and CM terminated in CPB; 2 feedforward projections from ML and CPB terminated in rostral areas of the belt and parabelt; and 3 feedback projections typified inputs to the core region from belt and parabelt. At odds with the model was the convergence of feedforward inputs into rostral medial belt from ML and CPB. This was unexpected since CPB is at a higher stage of the processing hierarchy, with mainly feedback projections to all other belt areas. Lastly, extending the model, feedforward projections from CM, ML, and CPB overlapped in the temporal parietal occipital area (TPO in the superior temporal sulcus, indicating significant auditory influence on sensory processing in this region. The combined results refine our working model and highlight the need to complete studies of the laminar inputs to all areas of auditory cortex. Their documentation is essential for developing informed hypotheses about the neurophysiological influences of inputs to each layer and area.

  12. Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Understanding route choice behavior is crucial to explain travelers’ preferences and to predict traffic flows under different scenarios. A growing body of literature has concentrated on public transport users without, however, concentrating on multimodal public transport networks because......,641 public transport users in the Greater Copenhagen Area.A two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and route choice model estimation allowed uncovering the preferences of the users of this multimodal large-scale public transport network. The results illustrate the rates of substitution...... not only of the in-vehicle times for different public transport modes, but also of the other time components (e.g., access, walking, waiting, transfer) composing the door-to-door experience of using a multimodal public transport network, differentiating by trip length and purpose, and accounting...

  13. Modeling thermo-optic effect in large mode area double cladding photonic crystal fibers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coscelli, Enrico; Cucinotta, Annamaria

    2014-02-01

    The impact of thermally-induced refractive index changes on the single-mode (SM) properties of large mode area (LMA) photonic crystal fibers are thoroughly investigated by means of a full-vector modal solver with integrated thermal model. Three photonic crystal fiber designs are taken into account, namely the 19-cell core fiber, the large-pitch fiber (LPF) and the distributed modal filtering (DMF) fiber, to assess the effects of the interplay between thermal effects and the high-order mode (HOM) suppression mechanisms exploited in order to obtain effectively SM guiding. The results have shown significant differences in the way the SM regime is changed by the increase of heat load, providing useful hints for the design of LMA fibers for high power lasers.

  14. [Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk: A new organisational model for global control of risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armario, P; Jericó, C; Vila, L; Freixa, R; Martin-Castillejos, C; Rotllan, M

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality that increases the cost of care. Currently there is a low degree of control of the main cardiovascular risk factors, although we have a good therapeutic arsenal. To achieve the improvement of this reality, a good coordination and multidisciplinary participation are essential. The development of new organizational models such as the Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk can facilitate the therapeutic harmonization and unification of the health messages offered by different levels of care, based on clinical practice guidelines, in order to provide patient-centred integrated care. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  15. Performance and evaluation of a coupled prognostic model TAPM over a mountainous complex terrain industrial area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthaios, Vasileios N.; Triantafyllou, Athanasios G.; Albanis, Triantafyllos A.; Sakkas, Vasileios; Garas, Stelios

    2018-05-01

    Atmospheric modeling is considered an important tool with several applications such as prediction of air pollution levels, air quality management, and environmental impact assessment studies. Therefore, evaluation studies must be continuously made, in order to improve the accuracy and the approaches of the air quality models. In the present work, an attempt is made to examine the air pollution model (TAPM) efficiency in simulating the surface meteorology, as well as the SO2 concentrations in a mountainous complex terrain industrial area. Three configurations under different circumstances, firstly with default datasets, secondly with data assimilation, and thirdly with updated land use, ran in order to investigate the surface meteorology for a 3-year period (2009-2011) and one configuration applied to predict SO2 concentration levels for the year of 2011.The modeled hourly averaged meteorological and SO2 concentration values were statistically compared with those from five monitoring stations across the domain to evaluate the model's performance. Statistical measures showed that the surface temperature and relative humidity are predicted well in all three simulations, with index of agreement (IOA) higher than 0.94 and 0.70 correspondingly, in all monitoring sites, while an overprediction of extreme low temperature values is noted, with mountain altitudes to have an important role. However, the results also showed that the model's performance is related to the configuration regarding the wind. TAPM default dataset predicted better the wind variables in the center of the simulation than in the boundaries, while improvement in the boundary horizontal winds implied the performance of TAPM with updated land use. TAPM assimilation predicted the wind variables fairly good in the whole domain with IOA higher than 0.83 for the wind speed and higher than 0.85 for the horizontal wind components. Finally, the SO2 concentrations were assessed by the model with IOA varied from 0

  16. Modelling plant invasion pathways in protected areas under climate change: implication for invasion management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-J. Wang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change may enable invasive plant species (IPS to invade protected areas (PAs, but plant invasion on a global scale has not yet been explicitly addressed. Here, we mapped the potential invasion pathways for IPS in PAs across the globe and explored potential factors determining the pathways of plant invasion under climate change. We used species distribution modelling to estimate the suitable habitats of 386 IPS and applied a corridor analysis to compute the potential pathways of IPS in PAs under climate change. Subsequently, we analysed the potential factors affecting the pathways in PAs. According to our results, the main potential pathways of IPS in PAs are in Europe, eastern Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, and eastern regions of South America and are strongly influenced by changes in temperature and precipitation. Protected areas can play an important role in preventing and controlling the spread of IPS under climate change. This is due to the fact that measures are taken to monitor climate change in detail, to provide effective management near or inside PAs, and to control the introduction of IPS with a high capacity for natural dispersal. A review of conservation policies in PAs is urgently needed.

  17. Business Centre Development Model of Airport Area in Supporting Airport Sustainability in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiawan, MI; Surjokusumo, S.; Ma'soem, DM; Johan, J.; Hasyim, C.; Kurniasih, N.; Sukoco, A.; Dhaniarti, I.; Suyono, J.; Sudapet, IN; Nasihien, RD; Mudjanarko, SW; Wulandari, A.; Ahmar, Ansari S.; Wajdi, MBN

    2018-01-01

    Airport is expected to play the role in enhancing the economic level of the region, especially the local people around the airport. The Aero City concept in developing an airport might also develop a city centreed in the airport that combining airport oriented business development, business actors and local people around the airport area. This study aims to generate development model of business centre at the airports in Indonesia. This is a mixed method based study. The population includes 296 airports under government management, government subsidiary and military. By using stratified random sampling, there were 151 sample airports. The results show that business centre development in the airport area will be related with the airport management and the commercial property (business centre) growth at the airport. Aero City in Indonesia can be developed by partnership system between government and private sector that consists of construction, development, and implementation of commercial property such as hotel, apartment, retail, office, etc. Based on the result of T-Value test, Airport Performance variable predicted to have significant influence on Gross Regional Domestic Product Central Business District performance.

  18. Measuring Leaf Area in Soy Plants by HSI Color Model Filtering and Mathematical Morphology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benalcázar, M; Padín, J; Brun, M; Pastore, J; Ballarin, V; Peirone, L; Pereyra, G

    2011-01-01

    There has been lately a significant progress in automating tasks for the agricultural sector. One of the advances is the development of robots, based on computer vision, applied to care and management of soy crops. In this task, digital image processing plays an important role, but must solve some important problems, like the ones associated to the variations in lighting conditions during image acquisition. Such variations influence directly on the brightness level of the images to be processed. In this paper we propose an algorithm to segment and measure automatically the leaf area of soy plants. This information is used by the specialists to evaluate and compare the growth of different soy genotypes. This algorithm, based on color filtering using the HSI model, detects green objects from the image background. The segmentation of leaves (foliage) was made applying Mathematical Morphology. The foliage area was estimated counting the pixels that belong to the segmented leaves. From several experiments, consisting in applying the algorithm to measure the foliage of about fifty plants of various genotypes of soy, at different growth stages, we obtained successful results, despite the high brightness variations and shadows in the processed images.

  19. Modelling of PM10 concentration for industrialized area in Malaysia: A case study in Shah Alam

    Science.gov (United States)

    N, Norazian Mohamed; Abdullah, M. M. A.; Tan, Cheng-yau; Ramli, N. A.; Yahaya, A. S.; Fitri, N. F. M. Y.

    In Malaysia, the predominant air pollutants are suspended particulate matter (SPM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). This research is on PM10 as they may trigger harm to human health as well as environment. Six distributions, namely Weibull, log-normal, gamma, Rayleigh, Gumbel and Frechet were chosen to model the PM10 observations at the chosen industrial area i.e. Shah Alam. One-year period hourly average data for 2006 and 2007 were used for this research. For parameters estimation, method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was selected. Four performance indicators that are mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and prediction accuracy (PA), were applied to determine the goodness-of-fit criteria of the distributions. The best distribution that fits with the PM10 observations in Shah Alamwas found to be log-normal distribution. The probabilities of the exceedences concentration were calculated and the return period for the coming year was predicted from the cumulative density function (cdf) obtained from the best-fit distributions. For the 2006 data, Shah Alam was predicted to exceed 150 μg/m3 for 5.9 days in 2007 with a return period of one occurrence per 62 days. For 2007, the studied area does not exceed the MAAQG of 150 μg/m3

  20. Measuring Leaf Area in Soy Plants by HSI Color Model Filtering and Mathematical Morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benalcázar, M.; Padín, J.; Brun, M.; Pastore, J.; Ballarin, V.; Peirone, L.; Pereyra, G.

    2011-12-01

    There has been lately a significant progress in automating tasks for the agricultural sector. One of the advances is the development of robots, based on computer vision, applied to care and management of soy crops. In this task, digital image processing plays an important role, but must solve some important problems, like the ones associated to the variations in lighting conditions during image acquisition. Such variations influence directly on the brightness level of the images to be processed. In this paper we propose an algorithm to segment and measure automatically the leaf area of soy plants. This information is used by the specialists to evaluate and compare the growth of different soy genotypes. This algorithm, based on color filtering using the HSI model, detects green objects from the image background. The segmentation of leaves (foliage) was made applying Mathematical Morphology. The foliage area was estimated counting the pixels that belong to the segmented leaves. From several experiments, consisting in applying the algorithm to measure the foliage of about fifty plants of various genotypes of soy, at different growth stages, we obtained successful results, despite the high brightness variations and shadows in the processed images.

  1. Gamma Ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) Balloon Flight Engineering Model: Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, D. J.; Godfrey, G.; Williams, S. M.; Grove, J. E.; Mizuno, T.; Sadrozinski, H. F.-W.; Kamae, T.; Ampe, J.; Briber, Stuart; Dann, James; hide

    2001-01-01

    The Gamma Ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) Large Area Telescope (LAT) is a pair-production high-energy (greater than 20 MeV) gamma-ray telescope being built by an international partnership of astrophysicists and particle physicists for a satellite launch in 2006, designed to study a wide variety of high-energy astrophysical phenomena. As part of the development effort, the collaboration has built a Balloon Flight Engineering Model (BFEM) for flight on a high-altitude scientific balloon. The BFEM is approximately the size of one of the 16 GLAST-LAT towers and contains all the components of the full instrument: plastic scintillator anticoincidence system (ACD), high-Z foil/Si strip pair-conversion tracker (TKR), CsI hodoscopic calorimeter (CAL), triggering and data acquisition electronics (DAQ), commanding system, power distribution, telemetry, real-time data display, and ground data processing system. The principal goal of the balloon flight was to demonstrate the performance of this instrument configuration under conditions similar to those expected in orbit. Results from a balloon flight from Palestine, Texas, on August 4, 2001, show that the BFEM successfully obtained gamma-ray data in this high-background environment.

  2. Modelling of the local chemistry in stagnant areas in the PWR primary circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, Rick; Fruzzetti, Keith; Ahluwalia, Al; Summe, Alex; Dame, Cecile; Schmitt, Kyle

    2014-01-01

    MRP-236 demonstrated a correlation between stagnant or low flow conditions and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of stainless steel components in the PWR primary system. Of the approximately 140 SCC events documented (affecting 15 different components), 83% involved stagnant or low flow conditions that were likely to be associated with chemical environments different from the well mixed bulk coolant. The chemistry in such locations is typically not monitored, and sampling is difficult or impossible. Actions to improve chemistry in regions of low or no coolant flow, such as flushing, cycling of components and imposition of more stringent make up water chemistry controls affect both operational costs and outage schedules. Similarly, design changes to improve flow in affected areas are costly or impracticable. Improving the understanding of the factors controlling chemistry in such areas and development of the capability to predict typical and worst case conditions will allow an informed assessment of procedural actions and/or design changes to improve local chemistry and thereby reduce SCC susceptibility. A project was undertaken to develop a model to predict local chemistry conditions in stagnant locations. The model comprises the iterative application of the EPRI MULTEQ solution chemistry equilibrium code and standard thermodynamic relationships to predict local chemistry conditions considered likely to have been present at the surfaces of components when SCC was initiated. The starting chemistry conditions are based on PWR primary system chemistry from different plant maneuvers (e.g., startup and shutdown conditions). The model was applied to three example components where SCC has occurred in the field. The selected components were: control rod drive mechanism canopy seals; valve drain lines; and reactor vessel o-ring leak-off lines. This paper provides a summary of the model and predicted local chemistry conditions that develop for the three example component as a

  3. Modelling changes in small area disability free life expectancy: trends in London wards between 2001 and 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-12-20

    Existing analyses of trends in disability free life expectancy (DFLE) are mainly at aggregate level (national or broad regional). However, major differences in DFLE, and trends in these expectancies, exist between different neighbourhoods within regions, so supporting a small area perspective. However, this raises issues regarding the stability of conventional life table estimation methods at small area scales. This paper advocates a Bayesian borrowing strength technique to model trends in mortality and disability differences across 625 small areas in London, using illness data from the 2001 and 2011 population Censuses, and deaths data for two periods centred on the Census years. From this analysis, estimates of total life expectancy and DFLE are obtained. The spatio-temporal modelling perspective allows assessment of whether significant compression or expansion of morbidity has occurred in each small area. Appropriate models involve random effects that recognise correlation and interaction effects over relevant dimensions of the observed deaths and illness data (areas, ages), as well as major spatial trends (e.g. gradients in health and mortality according to area deprivation category). Whilst borrowing strength is a primary consideration (and demonstrated by raised precision for estimated life expectancies), so also is model parsimony. Therefore, pure borrowing strength models are compared with models allowing selection of random age-area interaction effects using a spike-slab prior, and in fact borrowing strength combined with random effects selection provides better fit. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  5. A hydrogeological conceptual model of the Suio hydrothermal area (central Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saroli, Michele; Lancia, Michele; Albano, Matteo; Casale, Anna; Giovinco, Gaspare; Petitta, Marco; Zarlenga, Francesco; dell'Isola, Marco

    2017-09-01

    A hydrogeological conceptual model has been developed that describes the hydrothermal system of Suio Terme (central Italy). The studied area is located along the peri-Tyrrhenian zone of the central Apennines, between the Mesozoic and Cenozoic carbonate platform sequences of the Aurunci Mountains and the volcanic sequences of the Roccamonfina. A multi-disciplinary approach was followed, using new hydrogeological surveys, the interpretation of stratigraphic logs of boreholes and water wells, and geophysical data—seismic sections, shear-wave velocity (Vs) crustal model and gravimetric model. The collected information allowed for construction of a conceptual hydrogeological model and characterization of the hydrothermal system. The Suio hydrothermal system is strongly influenced by the Eastern Aurunci hydrostructure. Along the southeastern side, the top of the hydrostructure sinks to -1,000 m relative to sea level via a series of normal faults which give origin to the Garigliano graben. Geological and hydrogeological data strongly suggest the propagation and mixing of hot fluids, with cold waters coming from the shallow karst circuit. The aquitard distribution, the normal tectonic displacements and the fracturing of the karst hydrostructure strongly influence the hydrothermal basin. Carbon dioxide and other gasses play a key role in the whole circuit, facilitating the development of the hydrothermal system. The current level of knowledge suggests that the origin of the Suio hydrothermalism is the result of interaction between the carbonate reservoir of the Eastern Aurunci Mountains and the hot and deep crust of this peri-Tyrrhenian sector, where the Roccamonfina volcano represents the shallowest expression.

  6. Identification of high risk areas for avian influenza outbreaks in California using disease distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaber Belkhiria

    Full Text Available The coexistence of different types of poultry operations such as free range and backyard flocks, large commercial indoor farms and live bird markets, as well as the presence of many areas where wild and domestic birds co-exist, make California susceptible to avian influenza outbreaks. The 2014-2015 highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI outbreaks affecting California and other states in the United States have underscored the need for solutions to protect the US poultry industry against this devastating disease. We applied disease distribution models to predict where Avian influenza is likely to occur and the risk for HPAI outbreaks is highest. We used observations on the presence of Low Pathogenic Avian influenza virus (LPAI in waterfowl or water samples at 355 locations throughout the state and environmental variables relevant to the disease epidemiology. We used two algorithms, Random Forest and MaxEnt, and two data-sets Presence-Background and Presence-Absence data. The models performed well (AUCc > 0.7 for testing data, particularly those using Presence-Background data (AUCc > 0.85. Spatial predictions were similar between algorithms, but there were large differences between the predictions with Presence-Absence and Presence-Background data. Overall, predictors that contributed most to the models included land cover, distance to coast, and broiler farm density. Models successfully identified several counties as high-to-intermediate risk out of the 8 counties with observed outbreaks during the 2014-2015 HPAI epizootics. This study provides further insights into the spatial epidemiology of AI in California, and the high spatial resolution maps may be useful to guide risk-based surveillance and outreach efforts.

  7. Diagnostic test of predicted height model in Indonesian elderly: a study in an urban area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatmah Fatmah

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim In an anthropometric assessment, elderly are frequently unable to measure their height due to mobility and skeletal deformities. An alternative is to use a surrogate value of stature from arm span, knee height, and sitting height. The equations developed for predicting height in Indonesian elderly using these three predictors. The equations put in the nutritional assessment card (NSA of older people. Before the card which is the first new technology in Indonesia will be applied in the community, it should be tested. The study aimed was to conduct diagnostic test of predicted height model in the card compared to actual height.Methods Model validation towards 400 healthy elderly conducted in Jakarta City with cross-sectional design. The study was the second validation test of the model besides Depok City representing semi urban area which was undertaken as the first study.Result Male elderly had higher mean age, height, weight, arm span, knee height, and sitting height as compared to female elderly. The highest correlation between knee height and standing height was similar in women (r = 0.80; P < 0.001 and men (r = 0.78; P < 0.001, and followed by arm span and sitting height. Knee height had the lowest difference with standing height in men (3.13 cm and women (2.79 cm. Knee height had the biggest sensitivity (92.2%, and the highest specificity on sitting height (91.2%.Conclusion Stature prediction equation based on knee-height, arm span, and sitting height are applicable for nutritional status assessment in Indonesian elderly. (Med J Indones 2010;19:199-204Key words: diagnostic test, elderly, predicted height model

  8. Can limited area NWP and/or RCM models improve on large scales inside their domain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesinger, Fedor; Veljovic, Katarina

    2017-04-01

    In a paper in press in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics at the time this abstract is being written, Mesinger and Veljovic point out four requirements that need to be fulfilled by a limited area model (LAM), be it in NWP or RCM environment, to improve on large scales inside its domain. First, NWP/RCM model needs to be run on a relatively large domain. Note that domain size in quite inexpensive compared to resolution. Second, NWP/RCM model should not use more forcing at its boundaries than required by the mathematics of the problem. That means prescribing lateral boundary conditions only at its outside boundary, with one less prognostic variable prescribed at the outflow than at the inflow parts of the boundary. Next, nudging towards the large scales of the driver model must not be used, as it would obviously be nudging in the wrong direction if the nested model can improve on large scales inside its domain. And finally, the NWP/RCM model must have features that enable development of large scales improved compared to those of the driver model. This would typically include higher resolution, but obviously does not have to. Integrations showing improvements in large scales by LAM ensemble members are summarized in the mentioned paper in press. Ensemble members referred to are run using the Eta model, and are driven by ECMWF 32-day ensemble members, initialized 0000 UTC 4 October 2012. The Eta model used is the so-called "upgraded Eta," or "sloping steps Eta," which is free of the Gallus-Klemp problem of weak flow in the lee of the bell-shaped topography, seemed to many as suggesting the eta coordinate to be ill suited for high resolution models. The "sloping steps" in fact represent a simple version of the cut cell scheme. Accuracy of forecasting the position of jet stream winds, chosen to be those of speeds greater than 45 m/s at 250 hPa, expressed by Equitable Threat (or Gilbert) skill scores adjusted to unit bias (ETSa) was taken to show the skill at large scales

  9. Hydrogeochemical evaluation for Simpevarp model version 1.2. Preliminary site description of the Simpevarp area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laaksoharju, Marcus

    2004-12-01

    to Type C groundwaters. Main reactions involve water/rock interaction for long residence non-marine brines driven by diffusion. A modelling approach was used to simulate the composition of the highly saline or brine groundwaters and, in the Simpevarp area, concluded that mixing is the main irreversible process. It controls chloride concentration that, in turn, determines the re-equilibrium path (water-rock interaction) triggered by mixing. Coupled transport modelling was used to model the groundwater age, tritium content and calcite dissolution/precipitation processes at shallow groundwater depths at both Laxemar and Simpevarp. The modelled results provide additional support to hydrogeological models by using independent hydrochemical information and added support to the general hydrogeochemical understanding of the site. In this evaluation the groundwater model has been updated, the salinity distribution, mixing processes and the major reactions altering the groundwaters have been modelled down to a depth of 1000 m, and an updated Hydrogeochemical Site Descriptive Model version 1.2 has been produced. More groundwater and isotopic data, together with microbial information, colloids and gases, provided additional site descriptive information. Finally, the introduction of coupled modelling provided additional possibilities to address independently the various processes in question

  10. Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

    2014-05-01

    Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as

  11. Estimating irrigated areas from satellite and model soil moisture data over the contiguous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaussinger, Felix; Dorigo, Wouter; Gruber, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Information about irrigation is crucial for a number of applications such as drought- and yield management and contributes to a better understanding of the water-cycle, land-atmosphere interactions as well as climate projections. Currently, irrigation is mainly quantified by national agricultural statistics, which do not include spatial information. The digital Global Map of Irrigated Areas (GMIA) has been the first effort to quantify irrigation at the global scale by merging these statistics with remote sensing data. Also, the MODIS-Irrigated Agriculture Dataset (MirAD-US) was created by merging annual peak MODIS-NDVI with US county level irrigation statistics. In this study we aim to map irrigated areas by confronting time series of various satellite soil moisture products with soil moisture from the ERA-Interim/Land reanalysis product. We follow the assumption that irrigation signals are not modelled in the reanalysis product, nor contributing to its forcing data, but affecting the spatially continuous remote sensing observations. Based on this assumption, spatial patterns of irrigation are derived from differences between the temporal slopes of the modelled and remotely sensed time series during the irrigation season. Results show that a combination of ASCAT and ERA-Interim/Land show spatial patterns which are in good agreement with the MIrAD-US, particularly within the Mississippi Delta, Texas and eastern Nebraska. In contrast, AMSRE shows weak agreements, plausibly due to a higher vegetation dependency of the soil moisture signal. There is no significant agreement to the MIrAD-US in California, which is possibly related to higher crop-diversity and lower field sizes. Also, a strong signal in the region of the Great Corn Belt is observed, which is generally not outlined as an irrigated area. It is not yet clear to what extent the signal obtained in the Mississippi Delta is related to re-reflection effects caused by standing water due to flood or furrow

  12. Modeling risks: effects of area deprivation, family socio-economic disadvantage and adverse life events on young children's psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flouri, Eirini; Mavroveli, Stella; Tzavidis, Nikos

    2010-06-01

    The effects of contextual risk on young children's behavior are not appropriately modeled. To model the effects of area and family contextual risk on young children's psychopathology. The final study sample consisted of 4,618 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) children, who were 3 years old, clustered in lower layer super output areas in nine strata in the UK. Contextual risk was measured by socio-economic disadvantage (SED) at both area and family level, and by distal and proximal adverse life events at family level. Multivariate response multilevel models that allowed for correlated residuals at both individual and area level, and univariate multilevel models estimated the effect of contextual risk on specific and broad psychopathology measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. The area SED/broad psychopathology association remained significant after family SED was controlled, but not after maternal qualifications and family adverse life events were added to the model. Adverse life events predicted psychopathology in all models. Family SED did not predict emotional symptoms or hyperactivity after child characteristics were added to the model with the family-level controls. Area-level SED predicts child psychopathology via family characteristics; family-level SED predicts psychopathology largely by its impact on development; and adverse life events predict psychopathology independently of earlier adversity, SED and child characteristics, as well as maternal psychopathology, parenting and education.

  13. Underperformance of African protected area networks and the case for new conservation models: insights from Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter A Lindsey

    Full Text Available Many African protected areas (PAs are not functioning effectively. We reviewed the performance of Zambia's PA network and provide insights into how their effectiveness might be improved. Zambia's PAs are under-performing in ecological, economic and social terms. Reasons include: a rapidly expanding human populations, poverty and open-access systems in Game Management Areas (GMAs resulting in widespread bushmeat poaching and habitat encroachment; b underfunding of the Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA resulting in inadequate law enforcement; c reliance of ZAWA on extracting revenues from GMAs to cover operational costs which has prevented proper devolution of user-rights over wildlife to communities; d on-going marginalization of communities from legal benefits from wildlife; e under-development of the photo-tourism industry with the effect that earnings are limited to a fraction of the PA network; f unfavourable terms and corruption which discourage good practice and adequate investment by hunting operators in GMAs; g blurred responsibilities regarding anti-poaching in GMAs resulting in under-investment by all stakeholders. The combined effect of these challenges has been a major reduction in wildlife densities in most PAs and the loss of habitat in GMAs. Wildlife fares better in areas with investment from the private and/or NGO sector and where human settlement is absent. There is a need for: elevated government funding for ZAWA; greater international donor investment in protected area management; a shift in the role of ZAWA such that they focus primarily on national parks while facilitating the development of wildlife-based land uses by other stakeholders elsewhere; and new models for the functioning of GMAs based on joint-ventures between communities and the private and/or NGO sector. Such joint-ventures should provide defined communities with ownership of land, user-rights over wildlife and aim to attract long-term private/donor investment

  14. Mathematical Decision Models Applied for Qualifying and Planning Areas Considering Natural Hazards and Human Dealing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, Jose M.; Grau, Juan B.; Tarquis, Ana M.; Sanchez, Elena; Andina, Diego

    2014-05-01

    The authors were involved in the use of some Mathematical Decision Models, MDM, to improve knowledge and planning about some large natural or administrative areas for which natural soils, climate, and agro and forest uses where main factors, but human resources and results were important, natural hazards being relevant. In one line they have contributed about qualification of lands of the Community of Madrid, CM, administrative area in centre of Spain containing at North a band of mountains, in centre part of Iberian plateau and river terraces, and also Madrid metropolis, from an official study of UPM for CM qualifying lands using a FAO model from requiring minimums of a whole set of Soil Science criteria. The authors set first from these criteria a complementary additive qualification, and tried later an intermediate qualification from both using fuzzy logic. The authors were also involved, together with colleagues from Argentina et al. that are in relation with local planners, for the consideration of regions and of election of management entities for them. At these general levels they have adopted multi-criteria MDM, used a weighted PROMETHEE, and also an ELECTRE-I with the same elicited weights for the criteria and data, and at side AHP using Expert Choice from parallel comparisons among similar criteria structured in two levels. The alternatives depend on the case study, and these areas with monsoon climates have natural hazards that are decisive for their election and qualification with an initial matrix used for ELECTRE and PROMETHEE. For the natural area of Arroyos Menores at South of Rio Cuarto town, with at North the subarea of La Colacha, the loess lands are rich but suffer now from water erosions forming regressive ditches that are spoiling them, and use of soils alternatives must consider Soil Conservation and Hydraulic Management actions. The use of soils may be in diverse non compatible ways, as autochthonous forest, high value forest, traditional

  15. Evaluation of the source area of rooftop scalar measurements in London, UK using wind tunnel and modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocklehurst, Aidan; Boon, Alex; Barlow, Janet; Hayden, Paul; Robins, Alan

    2014-05-01

    The source area of an instrument is an estimate of the area of ground over which the measurement is generated. Quantification of the source area of a measurement site provides crucial context for analysis and interpretation of the data. A range of computational models exists to calculate the source area of an instrument, but these are usually based on assumptions which do not hold for instruments positioned very close to the surface, particularly those surrounded by heterogeneous terrain i.e. urban areas. Although positioning instrumentation at higher elevation (i.e. on masts) is ideal in urban areas, this can be costly in terms of installation and maintenance costs and logistically difficult to position instruments in the ideal geographical location. Therefore, in many studies, experimentalists turn to rooftops to position instrumentation. Experimental validations of source area models for these situations are very limited. In this study, a controlled tracer gas experiment was conducted in a wind tunnel based on a 1:200 scale model of a measurement site used in previous experimental work in central London. The detector was set at the location of the rooftop site as the tracer was released at a range of locations within the surrounding streets and rooftops. Concentration measurements are presented for a range of wind angles, with the spread of concentration measurements indicative of the source area distribution. Clear evidence of wind channeling by streets is seen with the shape of the source area strongly influenced by buildings upwind of the measurement point. The results of the wind tunnel study are compared to scalar concentration source areas generated by modelling approaches based on meteorological data from the central London experimental site and used in the interpretation of continuous carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration data. Initial conclusions will be drawn as to how to apply scalar concentration source area models to rooftop measurement sites and

  16. Turning soil survey data into digital soil maps in the Energy Region Eger Research Model Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pásztor, László; Dobos, Anna; Kürti, Lívia; Takács, Katalin; Laborczi, Annamária

    2015-04-01

    Agria-Innoregion Knowledge Centre of the Eszterházy Károly College has carried out targeted basic researches in the field of renewable energy sources and climate change in the framework of TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV project. The project has covered certain issues, which require the specific knowledge of the soil cover; for example: (i) investigation of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of natural and landscape resources; (ii) determination of local amount and characteristics of renewable energy sources; (iii) natural/environmental risk analysis by surveying the risk factors. The Energy Region Eger Research Model Area consists of 23 villages and is located in North-Hungary, at the Western part of Bükkalja. Bükkalja is a pediment surface with erosional valleys and dense river network. The diverse morphology of this area results diversity in soil types and soil properties as well. There was large-scale (1:10,000 and 1:25,000 scale) soil mappings in this area in the 1960's and 1970's which provided soil maps, but with reduced spatial coverage and not with fully functional thematics. To achive the recent tasks (like planning suitable/optimal land-use system, estimating biomass production and development of agricultural and ecomonic systems in terms of sustainable regional development) new survey was planned and carried out by the staff of the College. To map the soils in the study area 10 to 22 soil profiles were uncovered per settlement in 2013 and 2014. Field work was carried out according to the FAO Guidelines for Soil Description and WRB soil classification system was used for naming soils. According to the general goal of soil mapping the survey data had to be spatially extended to regionalize the collected thematic local knowledge related to soil cover. Firstly three thematic maps were compiled by digital soil mapping methods: thickness of topsoil, genetic soil type and rate of surface erosion. High resolution digital elevation model, Earth

  17. Highway runoff quality models for the protection of environmentally sensitive areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents novel highway runoff quality models using artificial neural networks (ANN) which take into account site-specific highway traffic and seasonal storm event meteorological factors to predict the event mean concentration (EMC) statistics and mean daily unit area load (MDUAL) statistics of common highway pollutants for the design of roadside ditch treatment systems (RDTS) to protect sensitive receiving environs. A dataset of 940 monitored highway runoff events from fourteen sites located in five countries (Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand, and China) was compiled and used to develop ANN models for the prediction of highway runoff suspended solids (TSS) seasonal EMC statistical distribution parameters, as well as the MDUAL statistics for four different heavy metal species (Cu, Zn, Cr and Pb). TSS EMCs are needed to estimate the minimum required removal efficiency of the RDTS needed in order to improve highway runoff quality to meet applicable standards and MDUALs are needed to calculate the minimum required capacity of the RDTS to ensure performance longevity.

  18. Forward-looking Assimilation of MODIS-derived Snow Covered Area into a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Rodell, Matthew

    2008-01-01

    Snow cover over land has a significant impact on the surface radiation budget, turbulent energy fluxes to the atmosphere, and local hydrological fluxes. For this reason, inaccuracies in the representation of snow covered area (SCA) within a land surface model (LSM) can lead to substantial errors in both offline and coupled simulations. Data assimilation algorithms have the potential to address this problem. However, the assimilation of SCA observations is complicated by an information deficit in the observation SCA indicates only the presence or absence of snow, and not snow volume and by the fact that assimilated SCA observations can introduce inconsistencies with atmospheric forcing data, leading to non-physical artifacts in the local water balance. In this paper we present a novel assimilation algorithm that introduces MODIS SCA observations to the Noah LSM in global, uncoupled simulations. The algorithm utilizes observations from up to 72 hours ahead of the model simulation in order to correct against emerging errors in the simulation of snow cover while preserving the local hydrologic balance. This is accomplished by using future snow observations to adjust air temperature and, when necessary, precipitation within the LSM. In global, offline integrations, this new assimilation algorithm provided improved simulation of SCA and snow water equivalent relative to open loop integrations and integrations that used an earlier SCA assimilation algorithm. These improvements, in turn, influenced the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes both during the snow season and, in some regions, on into the following spring.

  19. Modeling of wastewater quality in an urban area during festival and rainy days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obaid, H A; Shahid, S; Basim, K N; Chelliapan, S

    2015-01-01

    Water pollution during festival periods is a major problem in all festival cities across the world. Reliable prediction of water pollution is essential in festival cities for sewer and wastewater management in order to ensure public health and a clean environment. This article aims to model the biological oxygen demand (BOD(5)), and total suspended solids (TSS) parameters in wastewater in the sewer networks of Karbala city center during festival and rainy days using structural equation modeling and multiple linear regression analysis methods. For this purpose, 34 years (1980-2014) of rainfall, temperature and sewer flow data during festival periods in the study area were collected, processed, and employed. The results show that the TSS concentration increases by 26-46 mg/l while BOD(5) concentration rises by 9-19 mg/l for an increase of rainfall by 1 mm during festival periods. It was also found that BOD(5) concentration rises by 4-17 mg/l for each increase of 10,000 population.

  20. Flexible quality of service model for wireless body area sensor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Yangzhe; Leeson, Mark S; Higgins, Matthew D

    2016-03-01

    Wireless body area sensor networks (WBASNs) are becoming an increasingly significant breakthrough technology for smart healthcare systems, enabling improved clinical decision-making in daily medical care. Recently, radio frequency ultra-wideband technology has developed substantially for physiological signal monitoring due to its advantages such as low-power consumption, high transmission data rate, and miniature antenna size. Applications of future ubiquitous healthcare systems offer the prospect of collecting human vital signs, early detection of abnormal medical conditions, real-time healthcare data transmission and remote telemedicine support. However, due to the technical constraints of sensor batteries, the supply of power is a major bottleneck for healthcare system design. Moreover, medium access control (MAC) needs to support reliable transmission links that allow sensors to transmit data safely and stably. In this Letter, the authors provide a flexible quality of service model for ad hoc networks that can support fast data transmission, adaptive schedule MAC control, and energy efficient ubiquitous WBASN networks. Results show that the proposed multi-hop communication ad hoc network model can balance information packet collisions and power consumption. Additionally, wireless communications link in WBASNs can effectively overcome multi-user interference and offer high transmission data rates for healthcare systems.

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