WorldWideScience

Sample records for water budget model

  1. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  2. ENSIS, Pollution inventory, pollution budget model, water quality model and scenario handling. Functional specification

    OpenAIRE

    Bakken, T.H.; Bjørkenes, A.; Dagestad, K.

    2003-01-01

    Årsliste 2003 This is the functional specification of a complete pollution budget model for water. A crucial improvement of this model is implementation of new pollution sources and modification of existing sources. The specification of a water quality model, based on the results from the pollution budget model is also included. The document is intended to give a cost and time estimate of the programming of the functionality it describes, and will be the guideline for implementation of the...

  3. Landscape Water Budget Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    WaterSense created the Water Budget Tool as one option to help builders, landscape professionals, and irrigation professionals certified by a WaterSense labeled program meet the criteria specified in the WaterSense New Home Specification.

  4. Assessing GFDL high-resolution climate model water and energy budgets from AMIP simulations over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Di; Pan, Ming; Jia, Liwei; Vecchi, Gabriel; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-07-01

    This study assessed surface water and energy budgets in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations of a coupled atmosphere-land model developed by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AM2.5)). The AM2.5 water and energy budget variables were compared with four reanalyses data sets and an observational-based reference, the Variable Infiltration Capacity model simulations forced by Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing (PGF/VIC) over 20 year period during 1991-2010 in nine African river basins. Results showed that AM2.5 has closed water and energy budgets. However, the discrepancies between AM2.5 and other data sets were notable in terms of their long-term averages. For the water budget, the AM2.5 mostly overestimated precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff compared to PGF/VIC and reanalyses. The AM2.5, reanalyses, and PGF/VIC showed similar seasonal cycles but discrepant amplitudes. For the energy budget, while the AM2.5 has relatively consistent net radiation with other data sets, it generally showed higher latent heat, lower sensible heat, and lower Bowen ratio than reanalyses and PGF/VIC. In addition, the AM2.5 water and energy budgets terms mostly had the smallest interannual variability compared to both reanalyses and PGF/VIC. The spatial differences of long-term mean precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, and latent heat between AM2.5 and other data sets were reasonably small in dry regions. On average, AM2.5 is closer to PGF/VIC than R2 and 20CR are to PGF/VIC but is not as close as Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis to PGF/VIC. The bias in AM2.5 water and energy budget terms may be associated with the excessive wet surface and parameterization of moisture advection from ocean to land.

  5. Water Budget Model for a Remnant of the Historic Northern Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arceneaux, J. C.; Meselhe, E. A.; Habib, E.; Waldon, M. G.

    2006-12-01

    The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge overlays an area termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1, a 143,000 acre (58,000 ha) freshwater wetland. It is a remnant of the northern Everglades in Palm Beach County, Florida, USA. Sheetflow that naturally would flow across the Refuge wetlands was disrupted in the 1950s and early 1960s by construction of stormwater pumps, and levees with associated borrow canals which hydraulically isolated the Refuge from its watershed. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services (USFWS) concludes that changes in the water quantity, timing, and quality have caused negative impacts to the Refuge ecosystem. It is a top priority of the Refuge to ensure appropriate management that will produce maximum benefits for fish and wildlife, while meeting flood control and water supply needs. Models can improve our understanding and support improvement in these management decisions. The development of a water budget for the Loxahatchee Refuge will provide one useful modeling tool in support of Refuge water management decisions. The water budget model reported here was developed as a double- box (2-compartment) model with a daily time step that predicts temporal variations of water level in the Refuge rim canal and interior marsh based on observed inflows, outflows, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The water budget model was implemented using Microsoft EXCEL. The model calibration period was from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 1999; the validation period extended from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2004. Statistical analyses demonstrate the utility of this simple water budget model to predict the temporal variation of water levels in both the Refuge marsh and rim canal. The Refuge water budget model is currently being applied to evaluate various water management scenarios for the Refuge. Preliminary results modeling the mass balance of water quality constituents, including chloride, total phosphorus are encouraging. Success of this

  6. Multi-Sensor Model-Data Assimilation for Improved Modeling of Savanna Carbon and Water Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, D. J.; Renzullo, L. J.; Guerschman, J.; Hill, M. J.

    2007-12-01

    Model-data assimilation methods are increasingly being used to improve model predictions of carbon pools and fluxes, soil profile moisture contents, and evapotranspiration at catchment to regional scales. In this talk, I will discuss the development of model-data assimilation methods for application to parameter and state estimation problems in the context of savanna carbon and water cycles. A particular focus of this talk will be on the integration of in situ datasets and multiple types of satellite observations with radiative transfer, surface energy balance, and carbon budget models. An example will be drawn from existing work demonstrating regional estimation of soil profile moisture content based on multiple satellite sensors. The data assimilation scheme comprised a forward model, observation operators, multiple observation datasets and an optimization scheme. The forward model propagates model state variables in time based on climate forcing, initial conditions and model parameters and includes processes governing evapotranspiration, water budget and carbon cycle processes. The observation operators calculate modeled land surface temperature and microwave brightness temperatures based on the state variables of profile soil moisture and soil surface layer soil moisture at less than 2.5 cm depth. Satellite observations used in the assimilation scheme are surface brightness temperatures from AMSR-E (passive microwave at 6.9GHz at horizontal polarization) and from AVHRR (thermal channels 4 & 5 from NOAA-18), and land surface reflectances from MODIS Terra (channels 1 and 2 at 250m resolution). These three satellite sensors overpass at approximately the same time of day and provide independent observations of the land surface at different wavelengths. The observed brightness temperatures are used as constraints on the coupled energy balance/microwave radiative transfer model, and a canopy optical model was inverted to retrieve leaf area indices from observed

  7. Water Budget Quick Start Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    WaterSense created the Water Budget Tool as one option to help builders, landscape professionals, and irrigation professionals certified by a WaterSense labeled program meet the criteria specified in the WaterSense New Home Specification.

  8. Spatiotemporal Variability of the Urban Water Budget and Implications for Distributed Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, A. S.; Welty, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2011-12-01

    In seeking to understand the feedbacks between urban development and water availability, we are in the process of coupling an integrated hydrologic model with an urban growth model, both of the Baltimore, Maryland, USA region. We are implementing ParFlow.CLM as the integrated hydrologic model (a subsurface-surface flow/land surface processes model) for the 13,000 sq km Baltimore metropolitan area. This work requires an understanding of the distribution of flows and making decisions on how to best model the short-circuiting of water and other phenomena unique to urban systems. In order to assess the attributes of available data, we conducted a study of the urban water budget from 2000 to 2009 and across an urban to rural gradient of development. For 65 watersheds in the Baltimore metropolitan area we quantified both natural (precipitation, evapotranspiration and streamflow) and engineered or piped (wastewater infiltration and inflow, lawn irrigation, water supply pipe leakage and reservoir withdrawals) water budget components on a monthly basis. We used monthly PRISM grids for precipitation, the land surface model GLDAS- Noah for gridded evapotranspiration estimates and streamflow from USGS gage records. For piped components, we used Baltimore City's comprehensive wastewater monitoring program data, which has infiltration and inflow estimates for most of the city's sewer basins, as well as estimates of lawn irrigation from fine-scale land cover data and lawn watering estimates, and water supply pipe leakage based on system wide values and the distribution of water supply pipes. We found that when solely considering natural components, urban watersheds generally appeared to have excess water, although the spatial variability was much higher for urban watersheds as compared to rural ones. This apparent excess water was more than accounted for by the most significant piped component, the export of groundwater and rainwater by cracks and improper connections to the

  9. Upper Blue Nile basin water budget from a multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hahn Chul; Getirana, Augusto; Policelli, Frederick; McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi R.; Kumar, Sujay; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2017-12-01

    Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, in-situ streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region.

  10. A water-budget model and estimates of groundwater recharge for Guam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Adam G.

    2012-01-01

    On Guam, demand for groundwater tripled from the early 1970s to 2010. The demand for groundwater is anticipated to further increase in the near future because of population growth and a proposed military relocation to Guam. Uncertainty regarding the availability of groundwater resources to support the increased demand has prompted an investigation of groundwater recharge on Guam using the most current data and accepted methods. For this investigation, a daily water-budget model was developed and used to estimate mean recharge for various land-cover and rainfall conditions. Recharge was also estimated for part of the island using the chloride mass-balance method. Using the daily water-budget model, estimated mean annual recharge on Guam is 394.1 million gallons per day, which is 39 percent of mean annual rainfall (999.0 million gallons per day). Although minor in comparison to rainfall on the island, water inflows from water-main leakage, septic-system leachate, and stormwater runoff may be several times greater than rainfall at areas that receive these inflows. Recharge is highest in areas that are underlain by limestone, where recharge is typically between 40 and 60 percent of total water inflow. Recharge is relatively high in areas that receive stormwater runoff from storm-drain systems, but is relatively low in urbanized areas where stormwater runoff is routed to the ocean or to other areas. In most of the volcanic uplands in southern Guam where runoff is substantial, recharge is less than 30 percent of total water inflow. The water-budget model in this study differs from all previous water-budget investigations on Guam by directly accounting for canopy evaporation in forested areas, quantifying the evapotranspiration rate of each land-cover type, and accounting for evaporation from impervious areas. For the northern groundwater subbasins defined in Camp, Dresser & McKee Inc. (1982), mean annual baseline recharge computed in this study is 159.1 million gallons

  11. Distributed modeling of landsurface water and energy budgets in the inland Heihe river basin of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Y.; Ding, X.; Qin, C.; Wang, H.

    2009-10-01

    A distributed model for simulating the land surface hydrological processes in the Heihe river basin was developed and validated on the basis of considering the physical mechanism of hydrological cycle and the artificial system of water utilization in the basin. Modeling approach of every component process was introduced from 2 aspects, i.e., water cycle and energy cycle. The hydrological processes include evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff, groundwater flow, interaction between groundwater and river water, overland flow, river flow and artificial cycle processes of water utilization. A simulation of 21 years from 1982 to 2002 was carried out after obtaining various input data and model parameters. The model was validated for both the simulation of monthly discharge process and that of daily discharge process. Water budgets and spatial and temporal variations of hydrological cycle components as well as energy cycle components in the upper and middle reach Heihe basin (36 728 km2) were studied by using the distributed hydrological model. In addition, the model was further used to predict the water budgets under the future land surface change scenarios in the basin. The modeling results show: (1) in the upper reach watershed, the annual average evapotranspiration and runoff account for 63% and 37% of the annual precipitation, respectively, the snow melting runoff accounts for 19% of the total runoff and 41% of the direct runoff, and the groundwater storage has no obvious change; (2) in the middle reach basin, the annual average evapotranspiration is 52 mm more than the local annual precipitation, and the groundwater storage is of an obvious declining trend because of irrigation water consumption; (3) for the scenario of conservation forest construction in the upper reach basin, although the evapotranspiration from interception may increase, the soil evaporation may reduce at the same time, therefore the total evapotranspiration may not increase obviously; the

  12. Precipitation recycling in West Africa - regional modeling, evaporation tagging and atmospheric water budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald; Knoche, Hans-Richard

    2015-04-01

    Many numerical studies have shown that the West African monsoon is highly sensitive to the state of the land surface. It is however questionable to which extend a local change of land surface properties would affect the local climate, especially with respect to precipitation. This issue is traditionally addressed with the concept of precipitation recycling, defined as the contribution of local surface evaporation to local precipitation. For this study the West African monsoon has been simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using explicit convection, for the domain (1°S-21°N, 18°W-14°E) at a spatial resolution of 10 km, for the period January-October 2013, and using ERA-Interim reanalyses as driving data. This WRF configuration has been selected for its ability to simulate monthly precipitation amounts and daily histograms close to TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. In order to investigate precipitation recycling in this WRF simulation, surface evaporation tagging has been implemented in the WRF source code as well as the budget of total and tagged atmospheric water. Surface evaporation tagging consists in duplicating all water species and the respective prognostic equations in the source code. Then, tagged water species are set to zero at the lateral boundaries of the simulated domain (no inflow of tagged water vapor), and tagged surface evaporation is considered only in a specified region. All the source terms of the prognostic equations of total and tagged water species are finally saved in the outputs for the budget analysis. This allows quantifying the respective contribution of total and tagged atmospheric water to atmospheric precipitation processes. The WRF simulation with surface evaporation tagging and budgets has been conducted two times, first with a 100 km2 tagged region (11-12°N, 1-2°W), and second with a 1000 km2 tagged region (7-16°N, 6°W -3°E). In this presentation we will investigate hydro

  13. A model to estimate hydrological processes and water budget in an irrigation farm pond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying Ouyang; Joel O. Paz; Gary Feng; John J. Read; Ardeshir Adeli; Johnie N. Jenkins

    2017-01-01

    With increased interest to conserve groundwater resources without reducing crop yield potential, more on-farm water storage ponds have been constructed in recent years in USA and around the world. However, the hydrological processes, water budget, and environmental benefits and consequences of these ponds have not yet been fully quantified. This study developed a...

  14. Forecasting Rainfall Induced Landslide using High Resolution DEM and Simple Water Budget Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luzon, P. K. D.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.

    2014-12-01

    Philippines is hit by an average of 20 typhoons per year bringing large amount of rainfall. Monsoon carrying rain coming from the southwest of the country also contributes to the annual total rainfall that causes different hazards. Such is shallow landslide mainly triggered by high saturation of soil due to continuous downpour which could take up from hours to days. Recent event like this happened in Zambales province September of 2013 where torrential rain occurred for 24 hours amounting to half a month of rain. Rainfall intensity measured by the nearest weather station averaged to 21 mm/hr from 10 pm of 22 until 10 am the following day. The monsoon rains was intensified by the presence of Typhoon Usagi positioned north and heading northwest of the country. A number of landslides due to this happened in 3 different municipalities; Subic, San Marcelino and Castillejos. The disaster have taken 30 lives from the province. Monitoring these areas for the entire country is but a big challenge in all aspect of disaster preparedness and management. The approach of this paper is utilizing the available forecast of rainfall amount to monitor highly hazardous area during the rainy seasons and forecasting possible landslide that could happen. A simple water budget model following the equation Perct=Pt-R/Ot-∆STt-AETt (where as the terms are Percolation, Runoff, Change in Storage, and Actual Evapotraspiration) was implemented in quantifying all the water budget component. Computations are in Python scripted grid system utilizing the widely used GIS forms for easy transfer of data and faster calculation. Results of successive runs will let percolation and change in water storage as indicators of possible landslide.. This approach needs three primary sets of data; weather data, topographic data, and soil parameters. This research uses 5 m resolution DEM (IfSAR) to define the topography. Soil parameters are from fieldworks conducted. Weather data are from the Philippine

  15. Atlantic tropical cyclones water budget in observations and CNRM-CM5 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauvin, Fabrice; Douville, Hervé; Ribes, Aurélien

    2017-12-01

    Water budgets in tropical cyclones (TCs) are computed in the ERA-interim (ERAI) re-analysis and the CNRM-CM5 model for the late 20th and 21st centuries. At a 6-hourly timescale and averaged over a 5° × 5° box around a TC center, the main contribution to rainfall is moisture convergence, with decreasing contribution of evaporation for increasing rainfall intensities. It is found that TC rainfall in ERAI and the model are underestimated when compared with the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM), probably due to underestimated TC winds in ERAI vs. observed TCs. It is also found that relative increase in TC rainfall between the second half of the 20th and 21st centuries may surpass the rate of change suggested by the Clausius-Clapeyron formula. It may even reach twice this rate for reduced spatial domains corresponding to the highest cyclonic rainfall. This is in agreement with an expected positive feedback between TC rainfall intensity and dynamics.

  16. Development of a Water and Enthalpy Budget-based Glacier mass balance Model (WEB-GM) and its preliminary validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Baohong; Yang, Kun; Yang, Wei; He, Xiaobo; Chen, Yingying; Lazhu; Guo, Xiaofeng; Wang, Lei; Wu, Hui; Yao, Tandong

    2017-04-01

    This paper presents a new water and energy budget-based glacier mass balance model. Enthalpy, rather than temperature, is used in the energy balance equations to simplify the computation of the energy transfers through the water phase change and the movement of liquid water in the snow. A new parameterization for albedo estimation and state-of-the-art parameterization schemes for rainfall/snowfall type identification and surface turbulent heat flux calculations are implemented in the model. This model was driven with meteorological data and evaluated using mass balance and turbulent flux data collected during a field experiment implemented in the ablation zone of the Parlung No. 4 Glacier on the Southeast Tibetan Plateau during 2009 and 2015-2016. The evaluation shows that the model can reproduce the observed glacier ablation depth, surface albedo, surface temperature, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux with high accuracy. Comparing with a traditional energy budget-based glacier mass balance model, this enthalpy-based model shows a superior capacity in simulation accuracy. Therefore, this model can reasonably simulate the energy budget and mass balance of glacier melting in this region and be used as a component of land surface models and hydrological models.

  17. Stratospheric water vapour budget and convection overshooting the tropopause: modelling study from SCOUT-AMMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. M. Liu

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the impacts of overshooting convection at a local scale on the water distribution in the tropical UTLS. Overshooting convection is assumed to be one of the processes controlling the entry of water vapour mixing ratio in the stratosphere by injecting ice crystals above the tropopause which later sublimate and hydrate the lower stratosphere. For this purpose, we quantify the individual impact of two cases of overshooting convection in Africa observed during SCOUT-AMMA: the case of 4 August 2006 over Southern Chad which is likely to have influenced the water vapour measurements by micro-SDLA and FLASH-B from Niamey on 5 August, and the case of a mesoscale convective system over Aïr on 5 August 2006. We make use of high resolution (down to 1 km horizontally nested grid simulations with the three-dimensional regional atmospheric model BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System. In both cases, BRAMS succeeds in simulating the main features of the convective activity, as well as overshooting convection, though the exact position and time of the overshoots indicated by MSG brightness temperature difference is not fully reproduced (typically 1° displacement in latitude compared with the overshoots indicated by brightness temperature difference from satellite observations for both cases, and several hours shift for the Aïr case on 5 August 2006. Total water budgets associated with these two events show a significant injection of ice particles above the tropopause with maximum values of about 3.7 ton s−1 for the Chad case (4 August and 1.4 ton s−1 for the Aïr case (5 August, and a total upward cross tropopause transport of about 3300 ton h−1 for the Chad case and 2400 ton h−1 for the Aïr case in the third domain of simulation. The order of magnitude of these modelled fluxes is lower but comparable with similar studies in other tropical areas based on

  18. Characteristics of Water Budget Components in Paddy Rice Field under the Asian Monsoon Climate: Application of HSPF-Paddy Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Jin Kim

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The HSPF-Paddy model was applied to the Bochung watershed in Korea to compare water budget components by the land use types under the Asian monsoon climate. The calibration of HSPF-Paddy during 1992–2001 with PEST, a package program to optimize HSPF, and validation during 1985–1991 were carried out. The model efficiencies for monthly stream flow are 0.85 for calibration and 0.84 for validation. The simulation of annual mean runoff met the criteria of water budget analysis with the acceptable error level (less than 10 percent mean error. The simulation of the movement of water from paddy rice field to watershed was successful, and application of HSPF-Paddy coupled with PEST was able to improve accuracy of model simulation with reduced time and efforts for model calibration. The results of water budget analysis show that most of the outflow (86% for the urban area occurred through surface runoff, showing the highest rate among the land use types compared. Significant amounts of water are irrigated to paddy rice fields, and the runoff depth as well as evapotranspiration from paddy rice field is higher than other land use types. Hydrological characteristic of paddy rice field is that most of water movement occurred at the surface area, resulting from the low infiltration rate and manning’s coefficient, as well as ponded water throughout the growing season. Major impact on input and output of water were precipitation and runoff, respectively, influenced by an Asian monsoon climate.

  19. Development of a process-based model to predict pathogen budgets for the Sydney drinking water catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christobel M; Croke, Barry F W; Beatson, Peter J; Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Deere, Daniel A

    2007-06-01

    In drinking water catchments, reduction of pathogen loads delivered to reservoirs is an important priority for the management of raw source water quality. To assist with the evaluation of management options, a process-based mathematical model (pathogen catchment budgets - PCB) is developed to predict Cryptosporidium, Giardia and E. coli loads generated within and exported from drinking water catchments. The model quantifies the key processes affecting the generation and transport of microorganisms from humans and animals using land use and flow data, and catchment specific information including point sources such as sewage treatment plants and on-site systems. The resultant pathogen catchment budgets (PCB) can be used to prioritize the implementation of control measures for the reduction of pathogen risks to drinking water. The model is applied in the Wingecarribee catchment and used to rank those sub-catchments that would contribute the highest pathogen loads in dry weather, and in intermediate and large wet weather events. A sensitivity analysis of the model identifies that pathogen excretion rates from animals and humans, and manure mobilization rates are significant factors determining the output of the model and thus warrant further investigation.

  20. Combining earth observations, gis data and eco-hydrological modelling for predicting carbon budgets and water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Butts, M.; Hansen, S.; Soegaard, H.; Hasager, C. B.; Pilegaard, K.; Haastrup, M.; Henriksen, H. J.; Jensen, N. O.; Kristensen, M.

    2003-04-01

    Remote sensing data, GIS data and an eco-hydrological model (Daisy) are coupled within the project EO-FLUX-BUDGET for the prediction of CO2 budgets and water balance at Zealand which is the major island of Denmark (covering approximately 7.000 km2). In order to catch the surface heterogeneity shaped by the large variety of small fields, a high-resolution (30 m) land surface map is produced from satellite observations and validated using GIS data and national statistics on agricultural land use. GIS information on the housing density of built-up areas was superimposed on the land use map to facilitate the implementation of engineering methods for assessment of surface runoff in these regions. A geological soil map is combined with soil texture data registered in 5439 locations to construct a 3-layer GIS based soil map. The ground water depth is represented by the 10 year average water head elevation which is simulated by a distributed hydrological model (MIKE SHE). The Daisy model is run using grid based meteorological data and the results are evaluated by comparing with eddy covariance atmospheric fluxes recorded in agricultural, forest and urban regions. Temporal maps of vegetation properties are produced using multi-scale remote sensing data (Landsat TM, Terra-MODIS and SPOT-VEGETATION) and used to adjust the simulated leaf area indices. The initial result shows that the model efficiency is improved by the implementation of satellite data.

  1. Simulating the carbon, water, energy budgets and greenhouse gas emissions of arctic soils with the ISBA land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morel, Xavier; Decharme, Bertrand; Delire, Christine

    2017-04-01

    Permafrost soils and boreal wetlands represent an important challenge for future climate simulations. Our aim is to be able to correctly represent the most important thermal, hydrologic and carbon cycle related processes in boreal areas with our land surface model ISBA (Masson et al, 2013). This is particularly important since ISBA is part of the CNRM-CM Climate Model (Voldoire et al, 2012), that is used for projections of future climate changes. To achieve this goal, we replaced the one layer original soil carbon module based on the CENTURY model (Parton et al, 1987) by a multi-layer soil carbon module that represents C pools and fluxes (CO2 and CH4), organic matter decomposition, gas diffusion (Khvorostyanov et al., 2008), CH4 ebullition and plant-mediated transport, and cryoturbation (Koven et al., 2009). The carbon budget of the new model is closed. The soil carbon module is tightly coupled to the ISBA energy and water budget module that solves the one-dimensional Fourier law and the mixed-form of the Richards equation explicitly to calculate the time evolution of the soil energy and water budgets (Boone et al., 2000; Decharme et al. 2011). The carbon, energy and water modules are solved using the same vertical discretization. Snowpack processes are represented by a multi-layer snow model (Decharme et al, 2016). We test this new model on a pair of monitoring sites in Greenland, one in a permafrost area (Zackenberg Ecological Research Operations, Jensen et al, 2014) and the other in a region without permafrost (Nuuk Ecological Research Operations, Jensen et al, 2013); both sites are established within the GeoBasis part of the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program. The site of Chokurdakh, in a permafrost area of Siberia is is our third studied site. We test the model's ability to represent the physical variables (soil temperature and water profiles, snow height), the energy and water fluxes as well as the carbon dioxyde and methane fluxes. We also test the

  2. Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, Franklin R.; Chen, Junye

    2010-01-01

    Reanalyses, retrospectively analyzing observations over climatological time scales, represent a merger between satellite observations and models to provide globally continuous data and have improved over several generations. Balancing the Earth s global water and energy budgets has been a focus of research for more than two decades. Models tend to their own climate while remotely sensed observations have had varying degrees of uncertainty. This study evaluates the latest NASA reanalysis, called the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from a global water and energy cycles perspective. MERRA was configured to provide complete budgets in its output diagnostics, including the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU), the term that represents the observations influence on the analyzed states, alongside the physical flux terms. Precipitation in reanalyses is typically sensitive to the observational analysis. For MERRA, the global mean precipitation bias and spatial variability are more comparable to merged satellite observations (GPCP and CMAP) than previous generations of reanalyses. Ocean evaporation also has a much lower value which is comparable to observed data sets. The global energy budget shows that MERRA cloud effects may be generally weak, leading to excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface. Evaluating the MERRA time series of budget terms, a significant change occurs, which does not appear to be represented in observations. In 1999, the global analysis increments of water vapor changes sign from negative to positive, and primarily lead to more oceanic precipitation. This change is coincident with the beginning of AMSU radiance assimilation. Previous and current reanalyses all exhibit some sensitivity to perturbations in the observation record, and this remains a significant research topic for reanalysis development. The effect of the changing observing system is evaluated for MERRA water and energy budget terms.

  3. A flexible tool for diagnosing water, energy, and entropy budgets in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lembo, Valerio; Lucarini, Valerio

    2017-04-01

    We have developed a new flexible software for studying the global energy budget, the hydrological cycle, and the material entropy production of global climate models. The program receives as input radiative, latent and sensible energy fluxes, with the requirement that the variable names are in agreement with the Climate and Forecast (CF) conventions for the production of NetCDF datasets. Annual mean maps, meridional sections and time series are computed by means of Climate Data Operators (CDO) collection of command line operators developed at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M). If a land-sea mask is provided, the program also computes the required quantities separately on the continents and oceans. Depending on the user's choice, the program also calls the MATLAB software to compute meridional heat transports and location and intensities of the peaks in the two hemispheres. We are currently planning to adapt the program in order to be included in the Earth System Model eValuation Tool (ESMValTool) community diagnostics.

  4. Carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and sulfide budgets in the Black Sea : a biogeochemical model of the whole water column coupling the oxic and anoxic parts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grégoire, M.; Soetaert, K.E.R.

    2010-01-01

    Carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and sulfide budgets are derived for the Black Sea water column from a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. The model is applied in the deep part of the sea and simulates processes over the whole water column including the anoxic layer that extends from similar, equals115 m

  5. Simulating the water budget of a Prairie Potholes complex from LiDAR and hydrological models in North Dakota, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengli; Young, Claudia; Abdul-Aziz, Omar I.; Dahal, Devendra; Feng, Min; Liu, Shuguang

    2013-01-01

    Hydrological processes of the wetland complex in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are difficult to model, partly due to a lack of wetland morphology data. We used Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data sets to derive wetland features; we then modelled rainfall, snowfall, snowmelt, runoff, evaporation, the “fill-and-spill” mechanism, shallow groundwater loss, and the effect of wet and dry conditions. For large wetlands with a volume greater than thousands of cubic metres (e.g. about 3000 m3), the modelled water volume agreed fairly well with observations; however, it did not succeed for small wetlands (e.g. volume less than 450 m3). Despite the failure for small wetlands, the modelled water area of the wetland complex coincided well with interpretation of aerial photographs, showing a linear regression with R2 of around 0.80 and a mean average error of around 0.55 km2. The next step is to improve the water budget modelling for small wetlands.

  6. Comparison of rainfall based SPI drought indices with SMDI and ETDI indices derived from a soil water budget model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houcine, A.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2012-04-01

    Modelling soil water budget is a key issue for assessing drought awareness indices based on soil moisture estimation. The aim of the study is to compare drought indices based on rainfall time series to those based on soil water content time series and evapotranspiration time series. To this end, a vertically averaged water budget over the root zone is implemented to assist the estimation of evapotranspiration flux. A daily time step is adopted to run the water budget model for a lumped watershed of 250 km2 under arid climate where recorded meteorological and hydrological data are available for a ten year period. The water balance including 7 parameters is computed including evapotranspiration, runoff and leakage. Soil properties related parameters are derived according to pedo transfer functions while two remaining parameters are considered as data driven and are subject to calibration. The model is calibrated using daily hydro meteorological data (solar radiation, air temperature, air humidity, mean areal rainfall) as well as daily runoff records and also average annual (or regional) evapotranspiration. The latter is estimated using an empirical sub-model. A set of acceptable solutions is identified according to the values of the Nash coefficients for annual and decadal runoffs as well as the relative bias for average annual evapotranspiration. Using these acceptable solutions several drought indices are computed: SPI (standard precipitation index), SMDI (soil moisture deficit index) and ETDI (evapotranspiration deficit index). While SPI indicators are based only on monthly precipitation time series, SMDI are based on weekly mean soil water content as computed by the hydrological model. On the other hand ETDI indices are based on weekly mean potential and actual evapotranspirations as estimated by the meteorological and hydrological models. For SPI evaluation various time scales are considered from one to twelve months (SPI1, SPI3, SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12). For all

  7. GEWEX Water and Energy Budget Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roads, J.; Bainto, E.; Masuda, K.; Rodell, Matthew; Rossow, W. B.

    2008-01-01

    Closing the global water and energy budgets has been an elusive Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment (GEWEX) goal. It has been difficult to gather many of the needed global water and energy variables and processes, although, because of GEWEX, we now have globally gridded observational estimates for precipitation and radiation and many other relevant variables such as clouds and aerosols. Still, constrained models are required to fill in many of the process and variable gaps. At least there are now several atmospheric reanalyses ranging from the early National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalyses to the more recent ERA40 and JRA-25 reanalyses. Atmospheric constraints include requirements that the models state variables remain close to in situ observations or observed satellite radiances. This is usually done by making short-term forecasts from an analyzed initial state; these short-term forecasts provide the next guess, which is corrected by comparison to available observations. While this analysis procedure is likely to result in useful global descriptions of atmospheric temperature, wind and humidity, there is no guarantee that relevant hydroclimate processes like precipitation, which we can observe and evaluate, and evaporation over land, which we cannot, have similar verisimilitude. Alternatively, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), drives uncoupled land surface models with precipitation, surface solar radiation, and surface meteorology (from bias-corrected reanalyses during the study period) to simulate terrestrial states and surface fluxes. Further constraints are made when a tuned water balance model is used to characterize the global runoff observational estimates. We use this disparate mix of observational estimates, reanalyses, GLDAS and calibrated water balance simulations to try to characterize and close global and terrestrial atmospheric

  8. Mean-annual and mean-seasonal water-budget estimates from a Soil-Water-Balance model of the Appalachian Plateaus, 1980 through 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — As part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Resources Program study of Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, mean-annual and mean-seasonal water-budget estimates for...

  9. Modelling water fluxes in a pine wood soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. Comparison of a water budget and water flow model using different parameter data sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, S.; Jacques, D.; Mallants, D.

    2010-02-15

    For modelling complex hydrological problems, realistic models and accurate hydraulic properties are needed. A mechanistic model (HYDRUS-1D) and a compartment model are evaluated for simulating the water balance in a soil-vegetation-atmosphere system using time series of measured water content at several depths in two lysimeters in a podzol soil with Scots Pine vegetation. 10 calibration scenarios are used to investigate the impact of the model type and the number of horizons in the profile on the calibration accuracy. Main results are: (i) with a large number of soil layers, both models describe accurately the water contents at all depths, (II) the number of soil layers is the major factor that controls the quality of the calibration. The compartment model is as an abstracted model and the mechanistic model is our reference model. Drainage values are the considered output. Drainage values simulated by the abstracted model were close to those of the reference model when averaged over a sufficiently long period (about 9 months). This result suggests that drainage values obtained with an abstracted model are reliably when averaged over sufficiently long periods; the abstracted model needs less computational time without an important loss of accuracy.

  10. West Knox Pond water budget and water quality

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The purpose of this report is to analyze the water budget and water quality for West Knox Pond for the May through September period of 2002 and 2003. The...

  11. Uncertainty in Analyzed Water and Energy Budgets at Continental Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, F. R.; Mocko, D.; Chen, J.

    2011-01-01

    Operational analyses and retrospective-analyses provide all the physical terms of mater and energy budgets, guided by the assimilation of atmospheric observations. However, there is significant reliance on the numerical models, and so, uncertainty in the budget terms is always present. Here, we use a recently developed data set consisting of a mix of 10 analyses (both operational and retrospective) to quantify the uncertainty of analyzed water and energy budget terms for GEWEX continental-scale regions, following the evaluation of Dr. John Roads using individual reanalyses data sets.

  12. Groundwater Modeling as an Alternative Approach to Limited Data in the Northeastern Part of Mt. Hermon (Syria, to Develop a Preliminary Water Budget

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazeer M. Asmael

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In developing countries such as Syria, the lack of hydrological data affects groundwater resource assessment. Groundwater models provide the means to fill the gaps in the available data in order to improve the understanding of groundwater systems. The study area can be considered as the main recharge area of the eastern side of Barada and Awaj basin in the eastern part of Mt. Hermon. The withdrawal for agricultural and domestic purposes removes a considerable amount of water. The steady-state three-dimensional (3D groundwater model (FEFLOW which is an advanced finite element groundwater flow and transport modeling tool, was used to quantify groundwater budget components by using all available data of hydrological year 2009–2010. The results obtained may be considered as an essential tool for groundwater management options in the study area. The calibrated model demonstrates a good agreement between the observed and simulated hydraulic head. The result of the sensitivity analysis shows that the model is highly sensitive to hydraulic conductivity changes and sensitive to a lesser extent to water recharge amount. Regarding the upper aquifer horizon, the water budget under steady-state condition indicates that the lateral groundwater inflow from the Jurassic aquifer into this horizon is the most important recharge component. The major discharge component from this aquifer horizon occurs at its eastern boundary toward the outside of the model domain. The model was able to produce a satisfying estimation of the preliminary water budget of the upper aquifer horizon which indicates a positive imbalance of 4.6 Mm3·y−1.

  13. Constructing a framework for risk analyses of climate change effects on the water budget of differently sloped vineyards with a numeric simulation using the Monte Carlo method coupled to a water balance model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eHofmann

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over two years. The results showed good agreement of modelled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in soil water holding capacity. The improved model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes.

  14. Simulation of carbon and water budgets of a Douglas-fir forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijk, van M.T.; Dekker, S.C.; Bouten, W.; Kohsiek, W.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    The forest growth/hydrology model FORGRO–SWIF, consisting of a forest growth and a soil water model, was applied to quantify the inter-annual variability of the carbon and water budgets of a Douglas-fir forest (Pseudotsuga menziessii (Mirb.) Franco) in The Netherlands. With these budgets, the water

  15. Changes in water budgets and sediment yields from a hypothetical agricultural field as a function of landscape and management characteristics--A unit field modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Jason L.; Capel, Paul D.

    2012-01-01

    Crop agriculture occupies 13 percent of the conterminous United States. Agricultural management practices, such as crop and tillage types, affect the hydrologic flow paths through the landscape. Some agricultural practices, such as drainage and irrigation, create entirely new hydrologic flow paths upon the landscapes where they are implemented. These hydrologic changes can affect the magnitude and partitioning of water budgets and sediment erosion. Given the wide degree of variability amongst agricultural settings, changes in the magnitudes of hydrologic flow paths and sediment erosion induced by agricultural management practices commonly are difficult to characterize, quantify, and compare using only field observations. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to simulate two landscape characteristics (slope and soil texture) and three agricultural management practices (land cover/crop type, tillage type, and selected agricultural land management practices) to evaluate their effects on the water budgets of and sediment yield from agricultural lands. An array of sixty-eight 60-year simulations were run, each representing a distinct natural or agricultural scenario with various slopes, soil textures, crop or land cover types, tillage types, and select agricultural management practices on an isolated 16.2-hectare field. Simulations were made to represent two common agricultural climate regimes: arid with sprinkler irrigation and humid. These climate regimes were constructed with actual climate and irrigation data. The results of these simulations demonstrate the magnitudes of potential changes in water budgets and sediment yields from lands as a result of landscape characteristics and agricultural practices adopted on them. These simulations showed that variations in landscape characteristics, such as slope and soil type, had appreciable effects on water budgets and sediment yields. As slopes increased, sediment yields increased in both the arid and

  16. Modeling the water budget of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abera, Wuletawu; Formetta, Giuseppe; Brocca, Luca; Rigon, Riccardo

    2017-06-01

    The Upper Blue Nile basin is one of the most data-scarce regions in developing countries, and hence the hydrological information required for informed decision making in water resource management is limited. The hydrological complexity of the basin, tied with the lack of hydrometeorological data, means that most hydrological studies in the region are either restricted to small subbasins where there are relatively better hydrometeorological data available, or on the whole-basin scale but at very coarse timescales and spatial resolutions. In this study we develop a methodology that can improve the state of the art by using available, but sparse, hydrometeorological data and satellite products to obtain the estimates of all the components of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, evapotranspiration, discharge, and storage). To obtain the water-budget closure, we use the JGrass-NewAge system and various remote sensing products. The satellite product SM2R-CCI is used for obtaining the rainfall inputs, SAF EUMETSAT for cloud cover fraction for proper net radiation estimation, GLEAM for comparison with NewAge-estimated evapotranspiration, and GRACE gravimetry data for comparison of the total water storage amounts available in the whole basin. Results are obtained at daily time steps for the period 1994-2009 (16 years), and they can be used as a reference for any water resource development activities in the region. The overall water-budget analysis shows that precipitation of the basin is 1360 ± 230 mm per year. Evapotranspiration accounts for 56 % of the annual water budget, runoff is 33 %, storage varies from -10 to +17 % of the water budget.

  17. Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

    2016-03-01

    Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In this study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, a process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081-2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981-2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. These uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the

  18. Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubois, C.; Somot, S.; Deque, M.; Sevault, F. [CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, CNRS, Toulouse (France); Calmanti, S.; Carillo, A.; Dell' Aquilla, A.; Sannino, G. [ENEA, Rome (Italy); Elizalde, A.; Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Gualdi, S.; Oddo, P.; Scoccimarro, E. [INGV, Bologna (Italy); L' Heveder, B.; Li, L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France)

    2012-10-15

    Within the CIRCE project ''Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment'', an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950-2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021-2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961-1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021-2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961-1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing

  19. Estimating Evapotranspiration Using an Observation Based Terrestrial Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, Matthew; McWilliams, Eric B.; Famiglietti, James S.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Nigro, Joseph

    2011-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure at the scales of climate models and climate variability. While satellite retrieval algorithms do exist, their accuracy is limited by the sparseness of in situ observations available for calibration and validation, which themselves may be unrepresentative of 500m and larger scale satellite footprints and grid pixels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and ground-based observations to close the water budgets of seven continental scale river basins (Mackenzie, Fraser, Nelson, Mississippi, Tocantins, Danube, and Ubangi), estimating mean ET as a residual. For any river basin, ET must equal total precipitation minus net runoff minus the change in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), in order for mass to be conserved. We make use of precipitation from two global observation-based products, archived runoff data, and TWS changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission. We demonstrate that while uncertainty in the water budget-based estimates of monthly ET is often too large for those estimates to be useful, the uncertainty in the mean annual cycle is small enough that it is practical for evaluating other ET products. Here, we evaluate five land surface model simulations, two operational atmospheric analyses, and a recent global reanalysis product based on our results. An important outcome is that the water budget-based ET time series in two tropical river basins, one in Brazil and the other in central Africa, exhibit a weak annual cycle, which may help to resolve debate about the strength of the annual cycle of ET in such regions and how ET is constrained throughout the year. The methods described will be useful for water and energy budget studies, weather and climate model assessments, and satellite-based ET retrieval optimization.

  20. Sensitivity of Terrestrial Water and Energy Budgets to CO2-Physiological Forcing: An Investigation Using an Offline Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalakrishnan, Ranjith; Bala, Govindsamy; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Cao, Long; Nemani, Ramakrishna; Ravindranath, N. H.

    2011-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) influence climate by suppressing canopy transpiration in addition to its well-known greenhouse gas effect. The decrease in plant transpiration is due to changes in plant physiology (reduced opening of plant stomata). Here, we quantify such changes in water flux for various levels of CO2 concentrations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research s (NCAR) Community Land Model. We find that photosynthesis saturates after 800 ppmv (parts per million, by volume) in this model. However, unlike photosynthesis, canopy transpiration continues to decline at about 5.1% per 100 ppmv increase in CO2 levels. We also find that the associated reduction in latent heat flux is primarily compensated by increased sensible heat flux. The continued decline in canopy transpiration and subsequent increase in sensible heat flux at elevated CO2 levels implies that incremental warming associated with the physiological effect of CO2 will not abate at higher CO2 concentrations, indicating important consequences for the global water and carbon cycles from anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Keywords: CO2-physiological effect, CO2-fertilization, canopy transpiration, water cycle, runoff, climate change 1.

  1. Water budget analysis of Agulu Lake in Anambra State, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The elements of water budget equation were analyzed for the Agulu lake area and underlying aquifers. The water budget implications for soil and gully erosion were evaluated in relation to the geological formations and hydrogeotechnics. Results show that rainfall constitutes the main source of precipitation. It ranges from ...

  2. A note on India's water budget and evapotranspiration

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Some recent analyses of India 's water budget are based on information attributed to the Ministry of Water Resources.An examination of the budget components indicates that they imply an evapotranspiration estimate that is significantly lower than what one may expect based on information from other sources.If such is the ...

  3. A note on India's water budget and evapotranspiration

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Some recent analyses of India's water budget are based on information attributed to the Ministry of Water Resources. An examination of the budget components indicates that they imply an evapo- transpiration estimate that is significantly lower than what one may expect based on information from other sources. If such is the ...

  4. Drought Early Warning and Agro-Meteorological Risk Assessment using Earth Observation Rainfall Datasets and Crop Water Budget Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnavsky, E.

    2016-12-01

    The water resources satisfaction index (WRSI) model is widely used in drought early warning and food security analyses, as well as in agro-meteorological risk management through weather index-based insurance. Key driving data for the model is provided from satellite-based rainfall estimates such as ARC2 and TAMSAT over Africa and CHIRPS globally. We evaluate the performance of these rainfall datasets for detecting onset and cessation of rainfall and estimating crop production conditions for the WRSI model. We also examine the sensitivity of the WRSI model to different satellite-based rainfall products over maize growing regions in Tanzania. Our study considers planting scenarios for short-, medium-, and long-growing cycle maize, and we apply these for 'regular' and drought-resistant maize, as well as with two different methods for defining the start of season (SOS). Simulated maize production estimates are compared against available reported production figures at the national and sub-national (province) levels. Strengths and weaknesses of the driving rainfall data, insights into the role of the SOS definition method, and phenology-based crop yield coefficient and crop yield reduction functions are discussed in the context of space-time drought characteristics. We propose a way forward for selecting skilled rainfall datasets and discuss their implication for crop production monitoring and the design and structure of weather index-based insurance products as risk transfer mechanisms implemented across scales for smallholder farmers to national programmes.

  5. Water Budget formulation for Ahmadu Bello University, main ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF HORSFALL

    @yahoo.com, awa_ikpo@yahoo.com. ABSTRACT: This study provides a water resources management option through formulation of water budget for the main campus of the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria using secondary data obtained from ...

  6. HCMM energy budget data as a model input for assessing regions of high potential ground-water pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, D. G. (Principal Investigator); Heilman, J.; Tunheim, J.

    1978-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Analysis of soil temperature and water table data indicated that shallow aquifers appear to produce a heat sink effect when the depth to water table is approximately four meters or less.

  7. Studying the impact of overshooting convection on the tropopause tropical layer (TTL) water vapor budget at the continental scale using a mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behera, Abhinna; Rivière, Emmanuel; Marécal, Virginie; Claud, Chantal; Rysman, Jean-François; Geneviève, Seze

    2016-04-01

    Water vapour budget is a key component in the earth climate system. In the tropical upper troposphere, lower stratosphere (UTLS), it plays a central role both on the radiative and the chemical budget. Its abundance is mostly driven by slow ascent above the net zero radiative heating level followed by ice crystals' formation and sedimentation, so called the cold trap. In contrast to this large scale temperature driven process, overshooting convection penetrating the stratosphere could be one piece of the puzzle. It has been proven to hydrate the lower stratosphere at the local scale. Satellite-borne H2O instruments can not measure with a fine enough resolution the water vapour enhancements caused by overshooting convection. The consequence is that it is difficult to estimate the role of overshooting deep convection at the global scale. Using a mesoscale model i.e., Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (BRAMS), past atmospheric conditions have been simulated for the full wet season i.e., Nov 2012 to Mar 2013 having a single grid with horizontal resolution of 20 km × 20km over a large part of Brazil and South America. This resolution is too coarse to reproduce overshooting convection in the model, so that this simulation should be used as a reference (REF) simulation, without the impact of overshooting convection in the TTL water budget. For initialisation, as well as nudging the grid boundary in every 6 hours, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses has been used. The size distribution of hydrometeors and number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are fitted in order to best reproduce accumulated precipitations derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Similarly, GOES and MSG IR mages have been thoroughly compared with model's outputs, using image correlation statistics for the position of the clouds. The model H2O variability during the wet season, is compared with the in situ balloon-borne measurements during

  8. Water budget analysis and management for Bangkok Metropolis, Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singkran, Nuanchan

    2017-09-01

    The water budget of the Bangkok Metropolis system was analyzed using a material flow analysis model. Total imported flows into the system were 80,080 million m3 per year (Mm3 y-1) including inflows from the Chao Phraya and Mae Klong rivers and rainwater. Total exported flows out of the system were 78,528 Mm3 y-1 including outflow into the lower Chao Phraya River and tap water (TW) distributed to suburbs. Total rates of stock exchange (1,552 Mm3 y-1) were found in the processes of water recycling, TW distribution, domestic use, swine farming, aquaculture, and paddy fields. Only 21% of the total amount of wastewater (1,255 Mm3 y-1) was collected, with insufficient treatment capacity of about 415 Mm3 y-1. Domestic and business (industrial and commercial sectors) areas were major point sources, whereas paddy fields were a major non-point source of wastewater. To manage Bangkok's water budget, critical measures have to be considered. Wastewater treatment capacity and efficiency of wastewater collection should be improved. On-site wastewater treatment plants for residential areas should be installed. Urban planning and land use zoning are suggested to control land use activities. Green technology should be supported to reduce wastewater from farming.

  9. Salt balance, fresh water residence time and budget for non ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Water and salt budgets suggest that in order to balance the inflow and outflow of water at Makoba bay, there is net flux of water from the bay to the open ocean during wet season. Residual salt fluxes between the bay and the open ocean indicate advective salt export. Exchange of water between the bay with the open ocean ...

  10. Ecological niche modeling for visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil, using genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction and growing degree day-water budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prixia Nieto

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Two predictive models were developed within a geographic information system using Genetic Algorithm Rule-Set Prediction (GARP and the growing degree day (GDD-water budget (WB concept to predict the distribution and potential risk of visceral leishmaniasis (VL in the State of Bahia, Brazil. The objective was to define the environmental suitability of the disease as well as to obtain a deeper understanding of the eco-epidemiology of VL by associating environmental and climatic variables with disease prevalence. Both the GARP model and the GDDWB model, using different analysis approaches and with the same human prevalence database, predicted similar distribution and abundance patterns for the Lutzomyia longipalpis-Leishmania chagasi system in Bahia. High and moderate prevalence sites for VL were significantly related to areas of high and moderate risk prediction by: (i the area predicted by the GARP model, depending on the number of pixels that overlapped among eleven annual model years, and (ii the number of potential generations per year that could be completed by the Lu. longipalpis-L. chagasi system by GDD-WB analysis. When applied to the ecological zones of Bahia, both the GARP and the GDD-WB prediction models suggest that the highest VL risk is in the interior region of the state, characterized by a semi-arid and hot climate known as Caatinga, while the risk in the Bahia interior forest and the Cerrado ecological regions is lower. The Bahia coastal forest was predicted to be a low-risk area due to the unsuitable conditions for the vector and VL transmission.

  11. A parameter optimization tool for evaluating the physical consistency of the plot-scale water budget of the integrated eco-hydrological model GEOtop in complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoldi, Giacomo; Cordano, Emanuele; Brenner, Johannes; Senoner, Samuel; Della Chiesa, Stefano; Niedrist, Georg

    2017-04-01

    In mountain regions, the plot- and catchment-scale water and energy budgets are controlled by a complex interplay of different abiotic (i.e. topography, geology, climate) and biotic (i.e. vegetation, land management) controlling factors. When integrated, physically-based eco-hydrological models are used in mountain areas, there are a large number of parameters, topographic and boundary conditions that need to be chosen. However, data on soil and land-cover properties are relatively scarce and do not reflect the strong variability at the local scale. For this reason, tools for uncertainty quantification and optimal parameters identification are essential not only to improve model performances, but also to identify most relevant parameters to be measured in the field and to evaluate the impact of different assumptions for topographic and boundary conditions (surface, lateral and subsurface water and energy fluxes), which are usually unknown. In this contribution, we present the results of a sensitivity analysis exercise for a set of 20 experimental stations located in the Italian Alps, representative of different conditions in terms of topography (elevation, slope, aspect), land use (pastures, meadows, and apple orchards), soil type and groundwater influence. Besides micrometeorological parameters, each station provides soil water content at different depths, and in three stations (one for each land cover) eddy covariance fluxes. The aims of this work are: (I) To present an approach for improving calibration of plot-scale soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET). (II) To identify the most sensitive parameters and relevant factors controlling temporal and spatial differences among sites. (III) Identify possible model structural deficiencies or uncertainties in boundary conditions. Simulations have been performed with the GEOtop 2.0 model, which is a physically-based, fully distributed integrated eco-hydrological model that has been specifically designed for mountain

  12. Water budget formulation for Ahmadu Bello University, main campus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study provides a water resources management option through formulation of water budget for the main campus of the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria using secondary data obtained from various sources. The data revealed that, water consumption in the campus in the year 2005 was 3,101 m3/d and 3,125 m3/d in year ...

  13. Ground water budget analysis and cross-formational leakage in an arid basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchison, William R; Hibbs, Barry J

    2008-01-01

    Ground water budget analysis in arid basins is substantially aided by integrated use of numerical models and environmental isotopes. Spatial variability of recharge, storage of water of both modern and pluvial age, and complex three-dimensional flow processes in these basins provide challenges to the development of a good conceptual model. Ground water age dating and mixing analysis with isotopic tracers complement standard hydrogeologic data that are collected and processed as an initial step in the development and calibration of a numerical model. Environmental isotopes can confirm or refute a priori assumptions of ground water flow, such as the general assumption that natural recharge occurs primarily along mountains and mountain fronts. Isotopes also serve as powerful tools during postaudits of numerical models. Ground water models provide a means of developing ground water budgets for entire model domains or for smaller regions within the model domain. These ground water budgets can be used to evaluate the impacts of pumping and estimate the magnitude of capture in the form of induced recharge from streams, as well as quantify storage changes within the system. The coupled analyses of ground water budget analysis and isotope sampling and analysis provide a means to confirm, refute, or modify conceptual models of ground water flow.

  14. Lateral and subsurface flows impact arctic coastal plain lake water budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Joshua C.

    2016-01-01

    Arctic thaw lakes are an important source of water for aquatic ecosystems, wildlife, and humans. Many recent studies have observed changes in Arctic surface waters related to climate warming and permafrost thaw; however, explaining the trends and predicting future responses to warming is difficult without a stronger fundamental understanding of Arctic lake water budgets. By measuring and simulating surface and subsurface hydrologic fluxes, this work quantified the water budgets of three lakes with varying levels of seasonal drainage, and tested the hypothesis that lateral and subsurface flows are a major component of the post-snowmelt water budgets. A water budget focused only on post-snowmelt surface water fluxes (stream discharge, precipitation, and evaporation) could not close the budget for two of three lakes, even when uncertainty in input parameters was rigorously considered using a Monte Carlo approach. The water budgets indicated large, positive residuals, consistent with up to 70% of mid-summer inflows entering lakes from lateral fluxes. Lateral inflows and outflows were simulated based on three processes; supra-permafrost subsurface inflows from basin-edge polygonal ground, and exchange between seasonally drained lakes and their drained margins through runoff and evapotranspiration. Measurements and simulations indicate that rapid subsurface flow through highly conductive flowpaths in the polygonal ground can explain the majority of the inflow. Drained lakes were hydrologically connected to marshy areas on the lake margins, receiving water from runoff following precipitation and losing up to 38% of lake efflux to drained margin evapotranspiration. Lateral fluxes can be a major part of Arctic thaw lake water budgets and a major control on summertime lake water levels. Incorporating these dynamics into models will improve our ability to predict lake volume changes, solute fluxes, and habitat availability in the changing Arctic.

  15. USGS Water Availability and Use Science Program - research Towards a national water budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, M.

    2016-12-01

    A key part of achieving the US Department of the Interior's sustainability goals is informing the public and decision makers about the status and trends of the Nation's water resources. To achieve these goals the USGS has implemented a National Water Census (NWC) to provide a more accurate picture of the quantity of the Nation's water resources and improve forecasting of water availability for current and future economic, energy production, and environmental uses. In 2016, to streamline water sustainability activities, the USGS realigned all water availability and use oriented research, including the NWC, within a new Program - the Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP). WAUSP supports producing a current, comprehensive scientific assessment of the factors that influence water availability through development of nationally consistent datasets on the status and trends of water budget components (precipitation, streamflow, groundwater, and evapotranspiration), as well as human water use; improving the current understanding of flow requirements for ecological purposes; and evaluating water-resource conditions in selected river basins, or Focus Area Studies, where competition for water is a local concern. In addition to supporting research that provides water budget component estimates at the smallest possible spatial and temporal scale, WAUSP has supported the development of new methods and techniques to improve estimation of water use through the National Water Use Science project. These efforts include developing a heat budget-based model to improve estimates of thermoelectric water use, evaluating direct and indirect water use associated with unconventional oil and gas production, and developing methods to estimate irrigation consumptive use at both the local and regional scale. Additionally, WAUSP collaborates with federal, State, local, and University partners on a number of other water use related research including the new Water Use Data and

  16. Water Budget in the UAE for Applications in Food Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Sanchez, R.; Ouarda, T.; Marpu, P. R.; Pearson, S.

    2014-12-01

    The current rate of population growth combined with climate change, have increased the impact on natural resources globally, especially water, land and energy, and therefore the food availability. Arid and semi-arid countries are highly vulnerable to these threats being already aware of the scarcity of resources depending mainly on imports. This study focuses on the UAE, with a very low rainfall, high temperatures and a very high rate of growth. It represents the perfect scenario to study the adaptive strategies that would allow to alleviate the effects of changing climate conditions and increase of population. Water is a key factor to food security especially in dry regions like the UAE, therefore, the first step of this approach is to analyze the water budget, first at a global scale (UAE), and after at smaller scales where particular and in-depth studies can be performed. The water budget is represented by the following equation: total precipitation and desalinated water minus the evapotranspiration equals the change in the terrestrial water storage. The UAE is highly dependent on desalinated water, therefore, this factor is included as a water input in the water budget. The procedure adopted in this study is applicable to other Gulf countries where desalination represents a large component of the water budget. Remotely sensed data will be used to obtain the components of the water budget equation performing a preliminary study of the suitability of TRMM data to estimate the precipitation in the UAE by comparison with six ground stations in the country. GRACE and TRMM data will then be used to obtain the terrestrial water storage and the precipitation respectively. The evapotranspiration will be estimated from the water budget equation and maps of these three variables will be obtained. This spatial analysis of the water resources will help to determine the best areas for cultivation and whether it can be planned in a way that increases the agricultural

  17. 358 water budget position and its implications on basin ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    J = Annual Radiation index. = Sum of monthly j. Though calculating potential evaporation using this formula may yield a slightly higher values in rainy season as the formula is based on temperature readings (Garnier, 1968), the formular according to Olaniran (1983) still retain its validity. Water budget graph for the city was.

  18. Lake Victoria's Water Budget and the Potential Effects of Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents the Lake Victoria water budget for the period 1950-2004 and findings of a study on potential climate change impact on the lake's Hydrology through the 21st Century. The mass balance components are computed from measured and simulated data. A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the Special Report ...

  19. A Water Budget and Water Quality Study of the Dismal Swamp Thesis Proposal

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The main objective of this project is to determine the change in water quality throughout a section of the Dismal Swamp and to calculate the water budget for the...

  20. Effects of Irrigation in India on the Atmospheric Water Budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuinenburg, O.A.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Stacke, T.; Wiltshire, A.; Lucas-Picher, P.

    2014-01-01

    The effect of large-scale irrigation in India on the moisture budget of the atmosphere was investigated using three regional climate models and one global climate model, all of which performed an irrigated run and a natural run without irrigation. Using a common irrigation map, year-round irrigation

  1. A Climate Data Record (CDR) for the global terrestrial water budget: 1984-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Siemann, Amanda L.; Fisher, Colby K.; Liang, Miaoling; Beck, Hylke E.; Wanders, Niko; MacCracken, Rosalyn F.; Houser, Paul R.; Zhou, Tian; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Pinker, Rachel T.; Bytheway, Janice; Kummerow, Christian D.; Wood, Eric F.

    2018-01-01

    Closing the terrestrial water budget is necessary to provide consistent estimates of budget components for understanding water resources and changes over time. Given the lack of in situ observations of budget components at anything but local scale, merging information from multiple data sources (e.g., in situ observation, satellite remote sensing, land surface model, and reanalysis) through data assimilation techniques that optimize the estimation of fluxes is a promising approach. Conditioned on the current limited data availability, a systematic method is developed to optimally combine multiple available data sources for precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and the total water storage change (TWSC) at 0.5° spatial resolution globally and to obtain water budget closure (i.e., to enforce P - ET - R - TWSC = 0) through a constrained Kalman filter (CKF) data assimilation technique under the assumption that the deviation from the ensemble mean of all data sources for the same budget variable is used as a proxy of the uncertainty in individual water budget variables. The resulting long-term (1984-2010), monthly 0.5° resolution global terrestrial water cycle Climate Data Record (CDR) data set is developed under the auspices of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) program. This data set serves to bridge the gap between sparsely gauged regions and the regions with sufficient in situ observations in investigating the temporal and spatial variability in the terrestrial hydrology at multiple scales. The CDR created in this study is validated against in situ measurements like river discharge from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and ET from FLUXNET. The data set is shown to be reliable and can serve the scientific community in understanding historical climate variability in water cycle fluxes and stores, benchmarking the current climate, and

  2. A Climate Data Record (CDR) for the global terrestrial water budget: 1984–2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yu; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Siemann, Amanda L.; Fisher, Colby K.; Liang, Miaoling; Beck, Hylke E.; Wanders, Niko; MacCracken, Rosalyn F.; Houser, Paul R.; Zhou, Tian; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Pinker, Rachel T.; Bytheway, Janice; Kummerow, Christian D.; Wood, Eric F.

    2018-01-01

    Closing the terrestrial water budget is necessary to provide consistent estimates of budget components for understanding water resources and changes over time. Given the lack of in situ observations of budget components at anything but local scale, merging information from multiple data sources (e.g., in situ observation, satellite remote sensing, land surface model, and reanalysis) through data assimilation techniques that optimize the estimation of fluxes is a promising approach. Conditioned on the current limited data availability, a systematic method is developed to optimally combine multiple available data sources for precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and the total water storage change (TWSC) at 0.5° spatial resolution globally and to obtain water budget closure (i.e., to enforce P-ET-R-TWSC = 0) through a constrained Kalman filter (CKF) data assimilation technique under the assumption that the deviation from the ensemble mean of all data sources for the same budget variable is used as a proxy of the uncertainty in individual water budget variables. The resulting long-term (1984–2010), monthly 0.5° resolution global terrestrial water cycle Climate Data Record (CDR) data set is developed under the auspices of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) program. This data set serves to bridge the gap between sparsely gauged regions and the regions with sufficient in situ observations in investigating the temporal and spatial variability in the terrestrial hydrology at multiple scales. The CDR created in this study is validated against in situ measurements like river discharge from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and ET from FLUXNET. The data set is shown to be reliable and can serve the scientific community in understanding historical climate variability in water cycle fluxes and stores, benchmarking the

  3. Responses of Cloud Type Distributions to the Large-Scale Dynamical Circulation: Water Budget-Related Dynamical Phase Space and Dynamical Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Sun; Del Genio, Anthony; Wang, Tao; Kahn, Brian; Fetzer, Eric J.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

    2015-01-01

    Goals: Water budget-related dynamical phase space; Connect large-scale dynamical conditions to atmospheric water budget (including precipitation); Connect atmospheric water budget to cloud type distributions.

  4. Water Budgets: Foundations for Effective Water-Resources and Environmental Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healy, Richard W.; Winter, Thomas C.; LaBaugh, James W.; Franke, O. Lehn

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Water budgets provide a means for evaluating availability and sustainability of a water supply. A water budget simply states that the rate of change in water stored in an area, such as a watershed, is balanced by the rate at which water flows into and out of the area. An understanding of water budgets and underlying hydrologic processes provides a foundation for effective water-resource and environmental planning and management. Observed changes in water budgets of an area over time can be used to assess the effects of climate variability and human activities on water resources. Comparison of water budgets from different areas allows the effects of factors such as geology, soils, vegetation, and land use on the hydrologic cycle to be quantified. Human activities affect the natural hydrologic cycle in many ways. Modifications of the land to accommodate agriculture, such as installation of drainage and irrigation systems, alter infiltration, runoff, evaporation, and plant transpiration rates. Buildings, roads, and parking lots in urban areas tend to increase runoff and decrease infiltration. Dams reduce flooding in many areas. Water budgets provide a basis for assessing how a natural or human-induced change in one part of the hydrologic cycle may affect other aspects of the cycle. This report provides an overview and qualitative description of water budgets as foundations for effective water-resources and environmental management of freshwater hydrologic systems. Perhaps of most interest to the hydrologic community, the concepts presented are also relevant to the fields of agriculture, atmospheric studies, meteorology, climatology, ecology, limnology, mining, water supply, flood control, reservoir management, wetland studies, pollution control, and other areas of science, society, and industry. The first part of the report describes water storage and movement in the atmosphere, on land surface, and in the subsurface, as well as water exchange among these

  5. Water Budget Analysis within the Surrounding of Prominent Lakes and Reservoirs from Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Data and Hydrological Models: Case Studies of the Aral Sea and Lake Mead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alka Singh

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological budget of a region is determined based on the horizontal and vertical water fluxes acting in both inward and outward directions. These integrated water fluxes vary, altering the total water storage and consequently the gravitational force of the region. The time-dependent gravitational field can be observed through the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE gravimetric satellite mission, provided that the mass variation is above the sensitivity of GRACE. This study evaluates mass changes in prominent reservoir regions through three independent approaches viz. fluxes, storages, and gravity, by combining remote sensing products, in-situ data and hydrological model outputs using WaterGAP Global Hydrological Model (WGHM and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS. The results show that the dynamics revealed by the GRACE signal can be better explored by a hybrid method, which combines remote sensing-based reservoir volume estimates with hydrological model outputs, than by exclusive model-based storage estimates. For the given arid/semi-arid regions, GLDAS based storage estimations perform better than WGHM.

  6. Forested hillslope water budget uncertainty: understanding the pathway from precipitation to biota to stream discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speckman, H. N.; Beverly, D.; Mercer, J.; Chitrakar, S.; Thayer, D.; Carr, B.; Parsekian, A.; Ewers, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    Hillslopes provide the necessary scale for linking the hydrological processes that connect precipitation to stream discharge, making them ideal for improving our mechanistic understanding of local water budgets. Critical mechanisms affecting hillslope water flow include surface terrain, subsurface flow paths, and biota. These mechanisms are represented conceptually through the use of water budgets; however, it is important that such models are informed by data, and quantify the uncertainty in simulated hydrological fluxes. Our study site in southeast Wyoming is a montane riparian area hosting a loosing stream. Analyses from the water budget analysis conducted over a week's time indicates an ET flux of 3.5 mm/day, stream discharge of -4.1 mm/day, soil moisture depletion of 0.6 mm/day, and loss of 1.2 mm/day to groundwater recharge. We are testing a phenomenological hillslope water budget model against this data that describes uncertainty associated with hydraulic fluxes through the use of a spatially-explicit Bayesian hierarchy. Data to be integrated include transient, 3D estimates of soil moisture using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground water monitoring, evapotranspiration through Bowen ratio and Granier sap flux sensors, and stream flow measurements. We model the flow of water in each component acknowledging four sources of error: 1) uncertainty in the flux measurements, 2) uncertainty in driving forces, 3) uncertainty in scaling, 4) uncertainty in the process itself. This uncertainty will be carried throughout, affecting other water budget processes, and eventual probabilistic estimates of stream discharge. Our goals for this work include 1) identifying which hydrological processes are associated with the highest amount of uncertainty, 2) proposing ways in which uncertainty associate with such processes could be reduced, and 3) providing more accurate probabilistic predictions of hydraulic fluxes when compared to traditional frequentist

  7. Bark beetle-induced tree mortality alters stand energy budgets due to water budget changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, David E.; Ewers, Brent E.; Pendall, Elise; Frank, John; Kelly, Robert

    2018-01-01

    Insect outbreaks are major disturbances that affect a land area similar to that of forest fires across North America. The recent mountain pine bark beetle ( D endroctonus ponderosae) outbreak and its associated blue stain fungi ( Grosmannia clavigera) are impacting water partitioning processes of forests in the Rocky Mountain region as the spatially heterogeneous disturbance spreads across the landscape. Water cycling may dramatically change due to increasing spatial heterogeneity from uneven mortality. Water and energy storage within trees and soils may also decrease, due to hydraulic failure and mortality caused by blue stain fungi followed by shifts in the water budget. This forest disturbance was unique in comparison to fire or timber harvesting because water fluxes were altered before significant structural change occurred to the canopy. We investigated the impacts of bark beetles on lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta) stand and ecosystem level hydrologic processes and the resulting vertical and horizontal spatial variability in energy storage. Bark beetle-impacted stands had on average 57 % higher soil moisture, 1.5 °C higher soil temperature, and 0.8 °C higher tree bole temperature over four growing seasons compared to unimpacted stands. Seasonal latent heat flux was highly correlated with soil moisture. Thus, high mortality levels led to an increase in ecosystem level Bowen ratio as sensible heat fluxes increased yearly and latent heat fluxes varied with soil moisture levels. Decline in canopy biomass (leaf, stem, and branch) was not seen, but ground-to-atmosphere longwave radiation flux increased, as the ground surface was a larger component of the longwave radiation. Variability in soil, latent, and sensible heat flux and radiation measurements increased during the disturbance. Accounting for stand level variability in water and energy fluxes will provide a method to quantify potential drivers of ecosystem processes and services as well as lead to greater

  8. Bark beetle-induced tree mortality alters stand energy budgets due to water budget changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, David E.; Ewers, Brent E.; Pendall, Elise; Frank, John; Kelly, Robert

    2016-10-01

    Insect outbreaks are major disturbances that affect a land area similar to that of forest fires across North America. The recent mountain pine bark beetle (D endroctonus ponderosae) outbreak and its associated blue stain fungi (Grosmannia clavigera) are impacting water partitioning processes of forests in the Rocky Mountain region as the spatially heterogeneous disturbance spreads across the landscape. Water cycling may dramatically change due to increasing spatial heterogeneity from uneven mortality. Water and energy storage within trees and soils may also decrease, due to hydraulic failure and mortality caused by blue stain fungi followed by shifts in the water budget. This forest disturbance was unique in comparison to fire or timber harvesting because water fluxes were altered before significant structural change occurred to the canopy. We investigated the impacts of bark beetles on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stand and ecosystem level hydrologic processes and the resulting vertical and horizontal spatial variability in energy storage. Bark beetle-impacted stands had on average 57 % higher soil moisture, 1.5 °C higher soil temperature, and 0.8 °C higher tree bole temperature over four growing seasons compared to unimpacted stands. Seasonal latent heat flux was highly correlated with soil moisture. Thus, high mortality levels led to an increase in ecosystem level Bowen ratio as sensible heat fluxes increased yearly and latent heat fluxes varied with soil moisture levels. Decline in canopy biomass (leaf, stem, and branch) was not seen, but ground-to-atmosphere longwave radiation flux increased, as the ground surface was a larger component of the longwave radiation. Variability in soil, latent, and sensible heat flux and radiation measurements increased during the disturbance. Accounting for stand level variability in water and energy fluxes will provide a method to quantify potential drivers of ecosystem processes and services as well as lead to greater

  9. THE METODOLOGICAL APROACHES TO MODEL CREATING OF ENTERPRISE BUDGETING MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.A. Shpak

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available There is the direct definition between the quality of enterprise management and the enterprise competi-tiveness in the conditions of modern market. The main amount of Russian and western enterprises use the technology of budget management in finance for operate management. So far, as practice shows, enter-prises often use such budgeting model, which can not be adequate to the modern market demand and modern Russian economy aspects. Modern budgeting models, their advantages and disadvantages are considered and analyzed in this article.

  10. Impacts of Green Infrastructure on the Water Budget and Other Ecosystem Services in Subhumid Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Y.; Burian, S. J.; Pardyjak, E.; Pomeroy, C. A.

    2014-12-01

    Green infrastructure (GI) measures have been well established as part of low-impact development approaches for stormwater (SW) management. The origin of the concepts, practices and the preponderance of research have taken place in humid climates. Recent work has begun to explore and adapt GI to subhumid and semi-arid climates, which experience warmer and drier periods. But much remains unknown about effects of GI on the water cycle and how to effectively implement to maximize ecosystem benefits. This research synthesizes observation and modeling to address questions related to changes in evapotranspiration (ET), SW runoff volume, and other water cycle processes from GI introduction in Salt Lake City, Utah, USA. First, the water budget of green roofs is being studied via weighing lysimeter systems on two rooftop gardens on the University of Utah campus. ET, outflow, and soil moisture have been measured for approximately one year. Up to this early summer, average ET rates for lysimeters of pure medium, Sedums, and Bluegrass are 1.85±1.01, 1.97±0.94, and 2.31±0.91 mm/d respectively; the maximum ET rate could reach 6.11 mm/d from Sedums. Over 2/3 of total rainfall and irrigation were slowly consumed via ET from green roof. Second, the observation studies are leading to new ET modeling techniques that are being incorporated into the U.S. EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The modified SWMM has been used to simulate ET, SW runoff volume, and overall water budget changes from GI implementation. Preliminary result shows that ET could account for 10% of the total inflows into bioretentions, and 25% of the inflows into landscapes; potential ET rates could vary up to 0.95 mm/hr across 53 subcatchments in the 29 acres catchment. The influence of various design factors for GI on SW runoff reduction and the water budget is also to be estimated. The application of the research is to analyze the water budget of the Red Butte Creek Watershed in Salt Lake City and to

  11. Water budget analysis within the surrounding of prominent lakes and reservoirs from multi-sensor Earth observation data and hydrological models: case studies of the Aral Sea and Lake Mead

    OpenAIRE

    Alka Singh; Florian Seitz; Annette Eicker; Andreas Güntner

    2016-01-01

    The hydrological budget of a region is determined based on the horizontal and vertical water fluxes acting in both inward and outward directions. These integrated water fluxes vary, altering the total water storage and consequently the gravitational force of the region. The time-dependent gravitational field can be observed through the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimetric satellite mission, provided that the mass variation is above the sensitivity of GRACE. This study e...

  12. Evaluating regional water scarcity: Irrigated crop water budgets for groundwater management in the Wisconsin Central Sands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocco, M. A.; Kucharik, C. J.; Kraft, G.

    2013-12-01

    Regional water scarcity dilemmas between agricultural and aquatic land users pervade the humid northern lake states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, where agricultural irrigation relies on groundwater drawn from shallow aquifers. As these aquifers have strong connectivity to surface waters, irrigation lowers water levels in lakes and wetlands and reduces stream discharges. Irrigation expansion has cultivated a 60-year water scarcity dilemma in The Wisconsin Central Sands, the largest irrigated region in the humid northern lake states, dedicated to potato, maize, and processing vegetable production. Irrigation has depleted Wisconsin Central Sands surface waters, lowering levels in some lakes by over 2 m and drying some coldwater trout streams. Aquatic ecosystems, property values, and recreational uses in some surface waters have been devastated. While the causal link between pumping and surface water stress is established, understanding crop-mediated processes, such as the timing and magnitude of groundwater consumption by evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater recharge, will be useful in management of groundwater, irrigated cropping systems, and surface water health. Previous modeling and field efforts have compared irrigated crop water use to a natural reference condition on a net annual basis. As a result, we presently understand that for irrigated potatoes and maize, the average annual ET is greater and therefore, the average annual recharge is less than rainfed row crops, grasslands, and both coniferous and deciduous forests. However, we have a limited understanding of the magnitude and timing of ET and recharge from irrigated cropping systems on shorter time scales that proceed with the annual cropping cycle (i.e. planting, full canopy, harvest, residue cover). We seek to understand the spatiotemporal variability of crop water budgets and associated water scarcity in the Wisconsin Central Sands through detailed measurements of drainage (potential

  13. The water budget of heterogeneous areas : impact of soil and rainfall variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, C.P.

    1995-01-01

    In this thesis the heterogeneity of the soil water budget components is investigated. Heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties and rainfall rate are taken into account by using stochastic methods. The importance of lateral groundwater flow in causing heterogeneity of the water budget

  14. Premelting and the Water Budget in Polycrystalline Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, E. S.; Wilen, L. A.; Wettlaufer, J. S.

    2008-12-01

    A number of mechanisms, generally classified as premelting are responsible for the presence of liquid water at ice interfaces at temperatures well below 0°C . Premelting includes the familiar colligative effects of ions and other impurities, which lower the chemical potential of the liquid solvent, and the Gibbs-Thomson effect which describes the lowering of the melting point for a solid convex into its melt. Such phenomena are known to influence the amount of water in natural and laboratory polycrystalline ice and to control the thermal, chemical, and material transport properties. Thus, liquid water within the solid ice matrix influences the behavior of terrestrial ice over a wide range of length and time scales, from the macroscopic behavior of temperate glacier ice to the distribution of climate proxies within polar ice sheets. Using optical microscopy observations of ice near its melting temperature, rough bounds have been put on the length scales and dihedral angle associated with the liquid network in ice. However, these techniques cannot resolve whether the boundary between any two grains is wet or dry. For this, a more refined light scattering method has been developed. This method and the results are described both in the context of the basic physics and the application to the geophysical setting. The importance of this approach is broad, with implications ranging from the understanding of the role of intermolecular forces in the wetting properties of the ice/ice interface to constructing a budget for the total amount of water in an ice sheet. Additionally, basic applications of grain boundary melting are important in fields from metallurgy and materials science to mineral physics and geoengineering.

  15. Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljedahl, Anna K; Hinzman, Larry D; Kane, Douglas L; Oechel, Walter C; Tweedie, Craig E; Zona, Donatella

    2017-08-01

    Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.

  16. Water and salt budget in the Azikode estuary during postmonsoon season

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Revichandran, C.; Shyam, K.R.; Varma, P.U.; Pylee, A.

    Computed values of flux showed that seaward Eulerian residual flow of water was the major factor influencing the salt and water budget in the Azikode Estuary. Depth integrated residual flow was seaward at all depths. Upstream transport of salt...

  17. Water Budgets for Coeur d'Alene Lake, Idaho, Water Years 2000-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maupin, Molly A.; Weakland, Rhonda J.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, calculated annual water budgets and a mean annual water budget for Coeur d'Alene Lake, Idaho, for water years 2000 through 2005. Mean annual inflow to Coeur d'Alene Lake, including precipitation, was about 167,110 million cubic feet. Mean annual outflow, including evaporation, but excluding wastewater effluent to the Spokane River, was about 167,850 million cubic feet. The amount of water lost from Coeur d'Alene Lake and the Spokane River to the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie aquifer was estimated at 7,250 million cubic feet. Mean annual precipitation into Coeur d'Alene Lake was 3,267 million cubic feet, which exceeded mean annual evaporation of 2,483 million cubic feet. Withdrawals directly from the lake and from wells within a 1,000 foot buffer of the lakeshore for domestic and municipal water uses were reported. However, only the estimate for the consumptive use part of the withdrawals, 265 million cubic feet, was considered in the budget. Mean annual change in lake storage resulted in a net loss of about 49 million cubic feet. The mean annual residual value was about -8,310 million cubic feet.

  18. Investigating water budget dynamics in 18 river basins across the Tibetan Plateau through multiple datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Li, Yanzhong; Zhang, Guoqing; Sang, Yan-Fang; Lim, Wee Ho; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hong; Bai, Peng

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of basin-scale water budgets over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are not well understood nowadays due to the lack of in situ hydro-climatic observations. In this study, we investigate the seasonal cycles and trends of water budget components (e.g. precipitation P, evapotranspiration ET and runoff Q) in 18 TP river basins during the period 1982-2011 through the use of multi-source datasets (e.g. in situ observations, satellite retrievals, reanalysis outputs and land surface model simulations). A water balance-based two-step procedure, which considers the changes in basin-scale water storage on the annual scale, is also adopted to calculate actual ET. The results indicated that precipitation (mainly snowfall from mid-autumn to next spring), which are mainly concentrated during June-October (varied among different monsoons-impacted basins), was the major contributor to the runoff in TP basins. The P, ET and Q were found to marginally increase in most TP basins during the past 30 years except for the upper Yellow River basin and some sub-basins of Yalong River, which were mainly affected by the weakening east Asian monsoon. Moreover, the aridity index (PET/P) and runoff coefficient (Q/P) decreased slightly in most basins, which were in agreement with the warming and moistening climate in the Tibetan Plateau. The results obtained demonstrated the usefulness of integrating multi-source datasets to hydrological applications in the data-sparse regions. More generally, such an approach might offer helpful insights into understanding the water and energy budgets and sustainability of water resource management practices of data-sparse regions in a changing environment.

  19. Estimating the water budget for a peat filter treating septic tank effluent in the field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Geel, Paul J.; Parker, Wayne J.

    2003-02-01

    The use of peat as a filter medium for the treatment of a variety of liquid and gas waste streams has increased over the past decade. Peat has been used as an alternate treatment medium to treat septic tank effluent (STE) from domestic and small communal systems. Very little research has been completed to study the hydraulics and water budget of a peat filter operating in the field. This study evaluated the water budget of a peat filter operating at an elementary school near Ottawa, Canada. The peat filter was instrumented with tensiometers to measure the pore water pressures within the filter and a weather station to collect weather data required to estimate potential evapotranspiration. A one-dimensional unsaturated flow model, SoilCover, was calibrated using the pressure data and weather data collected in the field. The calibrated model was use to estimate the water budget for the filter operating with and without STE loading. The calibrated model predicted that the annual precipitation exceeded evapotranspiration for both scenarios. For the filter treating 50 mm/day of STE, there was a slight dilution due to the infiltration resulting in a net dilution factor of 0.97 (loading divided by the loading plus infiltration). The largest rainfall event of 49.9 mm resulted in a dilution factor of approximately 0.87, which corresponded to an approximate decrease in the hydraulic retention time (HRT) of between 12 and 33% depending on the calculation used to determine the HRT. When the filter does not receive STE, the precipitation exceeds evapotranspiration and hence the filter should not dry out when the filter is not in use.

  20. The comparative topology of energy allocation in budget models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lika, K.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2011-01-01

    The standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model assumes that assimilates of an isomorphic individual are first added to reserve, a fraction κ of mobilised reserve is allocated to soma (somatic maintenance plus growth of structure), and the rest to maturity maintenance and maturation or reproduction.

  1. Anthropogenic impacts on the water and salt budgets of St Lucia estuarine lake in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrie, Robynne A.; Stretch, Derek D.

    2011-05-01

    Lake St Lucia in South Africa is part of a UNESCO World Heritage site and a Ramsar wetland of international importance. Like many coastal wetlands worldwide, anthropogenic activities including catchment land-use changes, water diversions/abstractions, and manipulation of the mouth state have significantly affected its functioning over the past century. Questions concerning its sustainability have motivated a re-evaluation of management decisions made in the past and of options for the future. A model for the water and salt budgets has therefore been used to investigate "what if" scenarios in terms of past anthropogenic interventions. In particular, simulations allow us to evaluate the effects of diverting the Mfolozi river from St Lucia on the functioning of the system and on the occurrence of various water level/salinity states that drive the biological functioning of the ecosystem. In the past, when the St Lucia estuary and the Mfolozi river had a combined inlet, the mouth was predominantly open. The lake had relatively stable water levels but variable salinities that increased during dry conditions due to evaporative losses and saltwater inflows from the sea. If the mouth closed, the Mfolozi flow was diverted into the lake which reduced salinities and maintained or increased water levels. Simulations indicate that without a link to the Mfolozi the lake system would naturally have a mainly closed inlet with lower average salinities but more variable water levels. During dry conditions water levels would reduce and result in desiccation of large areas of the lake as has recently occurred. We conclude that the artificial separation of the St Lucia and Mfolozi inlets underpins the most significant impacts on the water & salt budget of the lake and that its reversal is key to the sustainability of the system.

  2. Water and chemical budgets in an urbanized river system under various hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brion, Natacha; Carbonnel, Vincent; Elskens, Marc; Claeys, Philippe; Verbanck, Michel A.

    2017-04-01

    Since historical times, riversides are preferential settlement places for human life and activities, ultimately leading to the development of Cities. Available water resources are not only essential to ensure human's vital functions, they are also used for the production of food, goods, and energy, as transport routes and as evacuation ways for domestic and industrial waste products. All these activities profoundly modify natural water circulation as well as water quality, with increased hydrological risks (floods, droughts,…) and chemical hazards (untreated sewage releases, industrial pollution,…) as consequence. An extreme example of strongly modified river system is the river Zenne crossing the city of Brussels. In and around the city, the river together with its connected navigation canal, determine a small vertical urbanized area (800 km2) combining extreme land-use landscapes. While the southern upstream part of this area lies in a region of intensive agricultural activities, the central part is occupied by a dense cityscape including a forested area, and the downstream part is mainly under industrial influence. In this context, we established a box-model representation of water and selected polluting chemicals (N and P, biological oxygen demand, and a selection of metals, pesticides and PAHs) budgets for the studied area under variable hydrological conditions. We first have identified the general distribution of water and pollutant tracers in the various background sources of the system: waters in streams located in the very upstream parts of the catchment, and untreated and treated sewage. Secondly we have assessed the distribution of water flows, and pollutant tracer concentrations at the boundaries of the studied water systems for different stable hydrological conditions and during flood events. Finally we will discuss water budgets and pollution tracer budgets for a yearly average hydrological situation and for dry and wet weather conditions in order

  3. Development of Turbulent Diffusion Transfer Algorithms to Estimate Lake Tahoe Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B.; Schladow, S. G.; Reuter, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    The evaporative loss is a dominant component in the Lake Tahoe hydrologic budget because watershed area (813km2) is very small compared to the lake surface area (501 km2). The 5.5 m high dam built at the lake's only outlet, the Truckee River at Tahoe City can increase the lake's capacity by approximately 0.9185 km3. The lake serves as a flood protection for downstream areas and source of water supply for downstream cities, irrigation, hydropower, and instream environmental requirements. When the lake water level falls below the natural rim, cessation of flows from the lake cause problems for water supply, irrigation, and fishing. Therefore, it is important to develop algorithms to correctly estimate the lake hydrologic budget. We developed a turbulent diffusion transfer model and coupled to the dynamic lake model (DLM-WQ). We generated the stream flows and pollutants loadings of the streams using the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) supported watershed model, Loading Simulation Program in C++ (LSPC). The bulk transfer coefficients were calibrated using correlation coefficient (R2) as the objective function. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for the meteorological inputs and model parameters. The DLM-WQ estimated lake water level and water temperatures were in agreement to those of measured records with R2 equal to 0.96 and 0.99, respectively for the period 1994 to 2008. The estimated average evaporation from the lake, stream inflow, precipitation over the lake, groundwater fluxes, and outflow from the lake during 1994 to 2008 were found to be 32.0%, 25.0%, 19.0%, 0.3%, and 11.7%, respectively.

  4. Spatially distributed groundwater recharge for 2010 land cover estimated using a water-budget model for the Island of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i (Version 2.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engott, John A.; Johnson, Adam G.; Bassiouni, Maoya; Izuka, Scot K.; Rotzoll, Kolja

    2015-02-25

    Owing mainly to projected population growth, demand for freshwater on the Island of Oʻahu is expected to increase by about 26 percent between 2010 and 2030, according to the City and County of Honolulu. Estimates of groundwater recharge are needed to evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater. For this study, a water-budget model with a daily computation interval was developed and used to estimate the spatial distribution of recharge on Oʻahu for average climate conditions (1978–2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and for drought conditions (1998–2002 rainfall and 2010 land cover). For average climate conditions, mean annual recharge for Oʻahu is about 660 million gallons per day, or about 36 percent of precipitation (rainfall and fog interception). Recharge for average climate conditions is about 34 percent of total water inflow, which consists of precipitation, irrigation, septic leachate, water-main leakage, and seepage from reservoirs and cesspools. Recharge is high along the crest of the Koʻolau Range, reaching as much as about 180 inches per year in the north-central part of the range. Recharge is much lower outside of the mountainous areas of the island, commonly less than 5 inches per year in unirrigated areas. The island-wide estimate of groundwater recharge for average climate conditions from this study is within 1 percent of the recharge estimate used in the 2008 State of Hawaiʻi Water Resource Protection Plan, which divides the Island of Oʻahu into 23 aquifer systems for groundwater management purposes. To facilitate direct comparisons with this study, these 23 aquifer systems were consolidated into 21 aquifer systems. Recharge estimates from this study are higher for 12 of the aquifer-system areas and lower for 9. Differences in mean rainfall distribution and the inclusion of irrigation in this study are the primary reasons for discrepancies in recharge estimates between this study and the 2008 Hawaiʻi Water Resources Protection Plan. For

  5. Electric solar wind sail mass budget model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Janhunen

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The electric solar wind sail (E-sail is a new type of propellantless propulsion system for Solar System transportation, which uses the natural solar wind to produce spacecraft propulsion. The E-sail consists of thin centrifugally stretched tethers that are kept charged by an onboard electron gun and, as such, experience Coulomb drag through the high-speed solar wind plasma stream. This paper discusses a mass breakdown and a performance model for an E-sail spacecraft that hosts a mission-specific payload of prescribed mass. In particular, the model is able to estimate the total spacecraft mass and its propulsive acceleration as a function of various design parameters such as the number of tethers and their length. A number of subsystem masses are calculated assuming existing or near-term E-sail technology. In light of the obtained performance estimates, an E-sail represents a promising propulsion system for a variety of transportation needs in the Solar System.

  6. Analysis of Water and Energy Budgets and Trends Using the NLDAS Monthly Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vollmer, Bruce E.; Rui, Hualan; Mocko, David M.; Teng, William L.; Lei, Guang-Dih

    2012-01-01

    The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is a collaborative project between NASA GSFC, NOAA, Princeton University, and the University of Washington. NLDAS has created surface meteorological forcing data sets using the best-available observations and reanalyses. The forcing data sets are used to drive four separate land-surface models (LSMs), Mosaic, Noah, VIC, and SAC, to produce data sets of soil moisture, snow, runoff, and surface fluxes. NLDAS hourly data, accessible from the NASA GES DISC Hydrology Data Holdings Portal, http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/hydrology/data-holdings, are widely used by various user communities in modeling, research, and applications, such as drought and flood monitoring, watershed and water quality management, and case studies of extreme events. More information is available at http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/. To further facilitate analysis of water and energy budgets and trends, NLDAS monthly data sets have been recently released by NASA GES DISC.

  7. Water budget considerations regarding groundwater extraction targets in the Calera Aquifer watershed, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groundwater extraction from the Calera Aquifer in the State of Zacatecas, Mexico, for irrigation, urban, and industrial uses has increased over recent decades to unsustainable levels. An annual, watershed-scale water budget analysis was conducted to identify alternative water conservation and water...

  8. Development of Turbulent Diffusion Transfer Model to Estimate Hydrologic Budget of Upper Klamath Lake Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B.; Schladow, G.

    2013-12-01

    Detailed and accurate hydrologic budgets of lake or reservoirs are essential for sustainable water supply and ecosystem managements due to increasing water demand and uncertainties related to climate change. Ensuring sustainable water allocation to stakeholders requires accurate heat and hydrologic budgets. A number of micrometeorological methods have been developed to approximate heat budget components, such as evaporative and sensible heat loss, that are not directly measurable. Although micrometeorological methods estimate the sensible and evaporative loss well for stationary (i.e. ideal) condition, these methods can rarely be approximated for non-idealized condition. We developed a turbulent diffusion transfer model and coupled to the dynamic lake model (DLM-WQ), developed at UC Davis, with the goal of correctly estimating the hydrologic budget of Upper Klamath Lake Oregon, USA. The measured and DLM-WQ estimated lake water temperatures and water elevation are in excellent agreement with correlation coefficient equals 0.95 and 0.99, respectively. Consistent with previous studies, the sensible and latent heat exchange coefficients were found to be site specific. Estimated lake mixing shows that the lake became strongly stratified during summer (between late April and the end of August). For the hypereutrophic shallow Upper Klamath Lake, longer stratification results in low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration at the sediment surface causing DO sensitive habitat destruction and ecological problems. The updated DLM-WQ can provide quantitative estimates of hydrologic components and predict the effects of natural- or human-induced changes in one component of the hydrologic cycle on the lake supplies and associated consequences.

  9. Climate change driven water budget dynamics of a Tibetan inland lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Binquan; Zhang, Jianyun; Yu, Zhongbo; Liang, Zhongmin; Chen, Li; Acharya, Kumud

    2017-03-01

    Understanding the hydrologic processes of inland lake basins in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) could provide insights into the responses of Tibetan lake dynamics to climate change. An efficient approach for this purpose is to represent complex hydrologic behaviors of such Tibetan lake watersheds with plausible hydrologic models. In this study, water level fluctuations of Lake Nam Co, an inland lake in the central TP, were investigated using a lumped lake-watershed model. The degree-day factor method was introduced to improve the model applicability in glacier-covered basins. The model simulated the hydrologic processes as well as the lake water budget. Remote sensing images (Landsat MSS, TM, ETM + and OLI) from 1972 to 2015 were used to identify the glacier and lake boundaries. Multisource climate data (e.g., ground point observation, 0.25o gridded APHRODITE and TRMM 3B42 v7 precipitation products) were used to drive the hydrologic model at a monthly time step. Results of trend analysis showed that basin-wide annual air temperature increased by the rate 0.04 °C/yr from 1961 to 2015. Mean annual precipitation slowly increased from 1961 to the mid-1990s, and then rapidly increased from the late-1990s to the mid-2000s, and finally obviously decreased after the mid-2000s. As a response to climate change, glaciers decreased by 62.69 km2 (29%) and lake area increased by 91.83 km2 (4.7%) from 1972 to 2015. The analysis of lake water budget suggested that, the total basin runoff and on-lake precipitation contributed 1.36 km3/yr (66%) and 0.7 km3/yr (34%), respectively, to mean annual water gain of the lake. Glacier runoff was 14% of the basin runoff and 10% of the total water gain of the lake. The percentages of lake evaporation, water seepage and water surplus were 65%, 20% and 15%, respectively. Lake level increased with the rate of 0.14 m/yr for the study period 1961-2015. It could be concluded that precipitation was the dominant controlling factor for the different

  10. Water and nutrient budgets for Vancouver Lake, Vancouver, Washington, October 2010-October 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheibley, Rich W.; Foreman, James R.; Marshall, Cameron A.; Welch, Wendy B.

    2014-01-01

    Vancouver Lake, a large shallow lake in Clark County, near Vancouver, Washington, has been undergoing water-quality problems for decades. Recently, the biggest concern for the lake are the almost annual harmful cyanobacteria blooms that cause the lake to close for recreation for several weeks each summer. Despite decades of interest in improving the water quality of the lake, fundamental information on the timing and amount of water and nutrients entering and exiting the lake is lacking. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a 2-year field study to quantify water flows and nutrient loads in order to develop water and nutrient budgets for the lake. This report presents monthly and annual water and nutrient budgets from October 2010–October 2012 to identify major sources and sinks of nutrients. Lake River, a tidally influenced tributary to the lake, flows into and out of the lake almost daily and composed the greatest proportion of both the water and nutrient budgets for the lake, often at orders of magnitude greater than any other source. From the water budget, we identified precipitation, evaporation and groundwater inflow as minor components of the lake hydrologic cycle, each contributing 1 percent or less to the total water budget. Nutrient budgets were compiled monthly and annually for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate; and, nitrogen loads were generally an order of magnitude greater than phosphorus loads across all sources. For total nitrogen, flow from Lake River at Felida, Washington, made up 88 percent of all inputs into the lake. For total phosphorus and orthophosphate, Lake River at Felida flowing into the lake was 91 and 76 percent of total inputs, respectively. Nutrient loads from precipitation and groundwater inflow were 1 percent or less of the total budgets. Nutrient inputs from Burnt Bridge Creek and Flushing Channel composed 12 percent of the total nitrogen budget, 8 percent of the total phosphorus budget, and 21 percent

  11. Bark beetle-induced tree mortality alters stand energy budgets due to water budget changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Reed; Brent E. Ewers; Elise Pendall; John Frank; Robert Kelly

    2016-01-01

    Insect outbreaks are major disturbances that affect a land area similar to that of forest fires across North America. The recent mountain pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak and its associated blue stain fungi (Grosmannia clavigera) are impacting water partitioning processes of forests in the Rocky Mountain region as the spatially heterogeneous...

  12. Water and mass budgets of a vertical-flow constructed wetland used for wastewater treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuleman, Arthur F M; Van Logtestijn, Richard; Rijs, Gerard B J; Verhoeven, Jos T A

    To estimate the nutrient and organic matter (Biological Oxygen Demand (BODs) and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD)) removal capacity of a constructed vertical-flow wetland in The Netherlands, a water and nutrient budget study was conducted. Also bacterial water quality enhancement was measured. The

  13. Hydrology and water budget for a forested atlantic coastal plain watershed, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott V. Harder; Devendra M Amatya; Callahan Timothy J.; Carl C. Trettin; Hakkila Jon

    2007-01-01

    Increases in timber demand and urban development in the Atlantic Coastal Plain over the past decade have motivated studies on the hydrology, water quality, and sustainable management of coastal plain watersheds. However, studies on baseline water budgets are limited for the low-lying, forested watersheds of the Atlantic Coastal Plain. The purpose of this study was to...

  14. Coordinated field study for CaPE: Analysis of energy and water budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Steven J.; Duchon, Claude; Kanemasu, Edward T.; Smith, Eric A.; Crosson, William; Laymon, Chip; Luvall, Jeff

    1993-01-01

    The objectives of this hydrologic cycle study are to understand and model (1) surface energy and land-atmosphere water transfer processes, and (2) interactions between convective storms and surface energy fluxes. A surface energy budget measurement campaign was carried out by an interdisciplinary science team during the period July 8 - August 19, 1991 as part of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment (CaPE) in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral, FL. Among the research themes associated with CaPE is the remote estimation of rainfall. Thus, in addition to surface radiation and energy budget measurements, surface mesonet, special radiosonde, precipitation, high-resolution satellite (SPOT) data, geosynchronous (GOES) and polar orbiting (DMSP SSM/I, OLS; NOAA AVHRR) satellite data, and high altitude airplane data (AMPR, MAMS, HIS) were collected. Initial quality control of the seven surface flux station data sets has begun. Ancillary data sets are being collected and assembled for analysis. Browsing of GOES and radar data has begun to classify days as disturbed/undisturbed to identify the larger scale forcing of the pre-convective environment, convection storms and precipitation. The science analysis plan has been finalized and tasks assigned to various investigators.

  15. Water Power Technologies FY 2017 Budget At-A-Glance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-03-01

    The Water Power Program is committed to developing and deploying a portfolio of innovative technologies and market solutions for clean, domestic power generation from water resources across the U.S. (hydropower, marine and hydrokinetics).

  16. EXPENSES FOR SERVICES AND PUBLIC DEVELOPMENT, HOUSING, ENVIRONMENT AND WATER IN LOCAL BUDGETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristinel\tICHIM

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present study we aim to analyze and deepen an important category of expenditure funded from local budgets namely expenses on services and public development, dwellings, environment and water. Our approach begins with determining scientifically the place of such expenses in local spending by clarifying their content and role. A special part of the article treats the particularities and financing of public utilities and finance and making investments related to public utility systems. The research is based on quantitative analysis of expenses for services and public development, dwellings, environment and water in local budgets from existing data in the Statistical Yearbook of Romania and highlights the structure of these types of expenditures and their place within public expenses in local budgets. The study includes an analysis of the dynamics of the share hold by expenses for services and public development, housing, environment and water in total expenditures from local budgets. The research carries out that the evolution and structure of expenses for services and public development, housing, environment and water from local budgets is determined by several variables that differ from one administrative territorial unit to another: the village area, length of roads, sewage system, number and social structure of the population. The research shows that within expenditures for public services and development, dwellings, environment and water the biggest share of expenditure is hold by expenditure on housing, public services and development (about 64%. During the period 2000-2013, the dynamics of expenditures for services and public development, dwellings, environment and water in the total expenditure of local budgets is sinusoidal, reaching a minimum threshold of 11.1% in 2011.

  17. 3D modeling of phytoplankton seasonal variation and nutrient budget in a southern Mediterranean Lagoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béjaoui, Béchir; Solidoro, Cosimo; Harzallah, Ali; Chevalier, Cristèle; Chapelle, Annie; Zaaboub, Noureddine; Aleya, Lotfi

    2017-01-30

    A 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model is developed and applied to Bizerte Lagoon (Tunisia), in order to understand and quantitatively assess its hydrobiological functioning and nutrients budget. The biogeochemical module accounts for nitrogen and phosphorus and includes the water column and upper sediment layer. The simulations showed that water circulation and the seasonal patterns of nutrients, phytoplankton and dissolved oxygen were satisfactorily reproduced. Model results indicate that water circulation in the lagoon is driven mainly by tide and wind. Plankton primary production is co-limited by phosphorus and nitrogen, and is highest in the inner part of the lagoon, due to the combined effects of high water residence time and high nutrient inputs from the boundary. However, a sensitivity analysis highlights the importance of exchanges with the Mediterranean Sea in maintaining a high level of productivity. Intensive use of fertilizers in the catchment area has a significant effect on phytoplankton biomass increase. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Cities and “budget-based” management of the energy-water-climate nexus: Case studies in transportation policy, infrastructure systems, and urban utility risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperling, Joshua B. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO 80401; University of Colorado, Denver CO; Ramaswami, Anu [University of Minnesota, Minneapolis MN 55455; University of Colorado, Denver CO

    2017-11-03

    This article reviews city case studies to inform a framework for developing urban infrastructure design standards and policy instruments that together aim to pursue energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation through city carbon budgets and water use efficiency and climate risk adaptation through city water budgets. This article also proposes combining carbon and water budgeting at the city-scale for achieving successful coupled city carbon and water budget (CCCWB) programs. Under a CCCWB program, key actors including local governments, infrastructure designers/operators, and households would be assigned a GHG emissions and water 'budget' and be required by state or federal levels to keep within this budget through the use of flexibility mechanisms, incentive programs, and sanctions. Multiple incentives and cross-scale governance arrangements would be tied to energy-water systems integration, resource-efficient transportation and infrastructure development, and effective monitoring and management of energy use, emissions, climate risks to, and security of energy-water-transport-food and other critical systems. As a first step to promote strategies for CCCWB development, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings to existing budget-based programs in the UK and US, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of interventions for staying within a budget, and governance. To date, the majority of climate action or sustainability plans by cities, while mentioning climate impacts as a premise for the plan, do not address these impacts in the plan. They focus primarily on GHG mitigation while ignoring resource depletion challenges and energy-climate-water linkages, whereby water supplies can begin to limit energy production and energy shifts to mitigate climate change can limit water availability. Coupled carbon-water budget plans, programs, and policies - described in this study- may address these concerns as

  19. Effects of Land Use Change for Crops on Water and Carbon Budgets in the Midwest USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Sun

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Increasing demand for food and bioenergy has altered the global landscape dramatically in recent years. Land use and land cover change affects the environmental system in many ways through biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms. In this study, we evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change driven by recent crop expansion and conversion on the water budget, carbon exchange, and carbon storage in the Midwest USA. A dynamic global vegetation model was used to simulate and examine the impacts of landscape change in a historical case based on crop distribution data from the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Services. The simulation results indicate that recent crop expansion not only decreased soil carbon sequestration (60 Tg less of soil organic carbon and net carbon flux into ecosystems (3.7 Tg·year−1 less of net biome productivity, but also lessened water consumption through evapotranspiration (1.04 × 1010 m3·year−1 less over 12 states in the Midwest. More water yield at the land surface does not necessarily make more water available for vegetation. Crop residue removal might also exacerbate the soil carbon loss.

  20. Evaluating Land Information System (LIS) capabilities in simulating the water budget and surface water dynamics over data-scarce areas in the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getirana, A.; Jung, H. C.; McNally, A.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Cretaux, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    Despite recent advances in land surface modeling and remote sensing, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. Uncertainties are particularly high in areas where data for model calibration and evaluation are scarce or unavailable. This study presents recent developments in the hydrological modeling over the Tigris-Euphrates River basin. An intercomparison effort is performed in order to determine how models and meteorological forcings represent physical processes. In this sense, multiple experiments are performed using state-of-the-art capabilities implemented in the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The NASA Modern Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Applications (MERRA) and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) meteorological datasets are used as main forcings. Additional experiments are performed replacing their precipitation with the Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset. Both Catchment and Noah land surface models coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are considered to simulate the water budget and surface water dynamics. Due to the scarce ground-based data availability, satellite-based estimates of the terrestrial water storage, evapotranspiration, water level and floodplain extent are used as complimentary information to evaluate the hydrological behavior in the basin. In particular, the water shortage observed in 2015 in that region is analyzed based on model outputs. Finally, we discuss prospects and challenges in considering anthropogenic impacts (irrigation and dams) on the hydrological modeling of the basin.

  1. Improving surface-subsurface water budgeting using high resolution satellite imagery applied on a brownfield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dujardin, J; Batelaan, O; Canters, F; Boel, S; Anibas, C; Bronders, J

    2011-01-15

    The estimation of surface-subsurface water interactions is complex and highly variable in space and time. It is even more complex when it has to be estimated in urban areas, because of the complex patterns of the land-cover in these areas. In this research a modeling approach with integrated remote sensing analysis has been developed for estimating water fluxes in urban environments. The methodology was developed with the aim to simulate fluxes of contaminants from polluted sites. Groundwater pollution in urban environments is linked to patterns of land use and hence it is essential to characterize the land cover in a detail. An object-oriented classification approach applied on high-resolution satellite data has been adopted. To assign the image objects to one of the land-cover classes a multiple layer perceptron approach was adopted (Kappa of 0.86). Groundwater recharge has been simulated using the spatially distributed WetSpass model and the subsurface water flow using MODFLOW in order to identify and budget water fluxes. The developed methodology is applied to a brownfield case site in Vilvoorde, Brussels (Belgium). The obtained land use map has a strong impact on the groundwater recharge, resulting in a high spatial variability. Simulated groundwater fluxes from brownfield to the receiving River Zenne were independently verified by measurements and simulation of groundwater-surface water interaction based on thermal gradients in the river bed. It is concluded that in order to better quantify total fluxes of contaminants from brownfields in the groundwater, remote sensing imagery can be operationally integrated in a modeling procedure. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Water budget of the Calera Aquifer in Zacatecas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the Calera Aquifer Region of the State of Zacatecas, Mexico, limited rainfall and low agricultural water use efficiency in combination with fast growing industrial and urban water demand are contributing to groundwater depletion at an unsustainable rate. Limited data and planning tools were avail...

  3. Late Budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Asger Lau; Lassen, David Dreyer; Nielsen, Lasse Holbøll Westh

    The budget forms the legal basis of government spending. If a budget is not in place at the beginning of the fiscal year, planning as well as current spending are jeopardized and government shutdown may result. This paper develops a continuous-time war-of-attrition model of budgeting...

  4. Examination of water budget using satellite products over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hailong; Guan, Huade; Gutiérrez-Jurado, Hugo A.; Simmons, Craig T.

    2014-04-01

    Large-scale water balance in the Australian continent is examined over an 8-year period (2003-2010) with three commonly used satellite based water cycle components: precipitation (P) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), evapotranspiration (ET) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and terrestrial water storage change (ΔS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). First we evaluate the water balance using the three products over areas with limited annual streamflow to eliminate the influence of runoff in the analysis. We observe more frequent and better closure and consistency in the water balance from the three components over the central part of Western Australia, where low precipitation, high elevation and low relief exist. The data are more coherent at seasonal and annual scales compared to the monthly scale. Application of the three products in Lake Eyre Basin (an internal drainage system) suggests a maximum 6.2 mm/year groundwater inflow to the basin, which is consistent with the regional groundwater flow direction in the area. This result also indicates that the absolute integrated error of the combination of three products should be smaller than 6.2 mm/year, which is about 2.1% of annual precipitation in the basin. If this relative error is assumed for the whole continent, water balance calculation using the three products over the whole Australian continent results in 144.7 ± 11.3 mm/year estimated total runoff to the surrounding oceans during the study period. We found that this estimate is comparable to the estimates of 50-150 mm/year from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and National Water Commission.

  5. Hydrologic budgets for the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers, Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming, water years 1987-96

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Janet M.; Driscoll, Daniel G.; Hamade, Ghaith R.; Jarrell, Gregory J.

    2001-01-01

    The Madison and Minnelusa aquifers are two of the most important aquifers in the Black Hills area of South Dakota and Wyoming. Quantification and evaluation of various hydrologic budget components are important for managing and understanding these aquifers. Hydrologic budgets are developed for two scenarios, including an overall budget for the entire study area and more detailed budgets for subareas. Budgets generally are combined for the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers because most budget components cannot be quantified individually for the aquifers. An average hydrologic budget for the entire study area is computed for water years 1987-96, for which change in storage is approximately equal to zero. Annual estimates of budget components are included in detailed budgets for nine subareas, which consider periods of decreasing storage (1987-92) and increasing storage (1993-96). Inflow components include recharge, leakage from adjacent aquifers, and ground-water inflows across the study area boundary. Outflows include springflow (headwater and artesian), well withdrawals, leakage to adjacent aquifers, and ground-water outflow across the study area boundary. Leakage, ground-water inflows, and ground-water outflows are difficult to quantify and cannot be distinguished from one another. Thus, net ground-water flow, which includes these components, is calculated as a residual, using estimates for the other budget components. For the overall budget for water years 1987-96, net ground-water outflow from the study area is computed as 100 ft3/s (cubic feet per second). Estimates of average combined budget components for the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers are: 395 ft3/s for recharge, 78 ft3/s for headwater springflow, 189 ft3/s for artesian springflow, and 28 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Hydrologic budgets also are quantified for nine subareas for periods of decreasing storage (1987-92) and increasing storage (1993-96), with changes in storage assumed equal but opposite. Common

  6. Satellite Retrieval of Atmospheric Water Budget over Gulf of Mexico- Caribbean Basin: Seasonal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.; Santos, Pablo; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This study presents results from a multi-satellite/multi-sensor retrieval system designed to obtain the atmospheric water budget over the open ocean. A combination of hourly-sampled monthly datasets derived from the GOES-8 5 Imager and the DMSP 7-channel passive microwave radiometer (SSM/I) have been acquired for the Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea basin. Whereas the methodology is being tested over this basin, the retrieval system is designed for portability to any open-ocean region. Algorithm modules using the different datasets to retrieve individual geophysical parameters needed in the water budget equation are designed in a manner that takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GOES-8 measurements, as well as the physical relationships inherent to the SSM/I passive microwave signals in conjunction with water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rainfall. The methodology consists of retrieving the precipitation, surface evaporation, and vapor-cloud water storage terms in the atmospheric water balance equation from satellite techniques, with the water vapor advection term being obtained as the residue needed for balance. Thus, we have sought to develop a purely satellite-based method for obtaining the full set of terms in the atmospheric water budget equation without requiring in situ sounding information on the wind profile. The algorithm is partly validated by first cross-checking all the algorithm components through multiple-algorithm retrieval intercomparisons. More fundamental validation is obtained by directly comparing water vapor transports into the targeted basin diagnosed from the satellite algorithm to those obtained observationally from a network of land-based upper air stations that nearly uniformly surround the basin. Total columnar atmospheric water budget results will be presented for an extended annual cycle consisting of the months of October-97, January-98, April-98, July-98, October-98, and January-1999. These results are used to emphasize

  7. Stream Heat Budget Modeling of Groundwater Inputs: Model Development and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glose, A.; Lautz, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Models of physical processes in fluvial systems are useful for improving understanding of hydrologic systems and for predicting future conditions. Process-based models of fluid flow and heat transport in fluvial systems can be used to quantify unknown spatial and temporal patterns of hydrologic fluxes, such as groundwater discharge, and to predict system response to future change. In this study, a stream heat budget model was developed and calibrated to observed stream water temperature data for Meadowbrook Creek in Syracuse, NY. The one-dimensional (longitudinal), transient stream temperature model is programmed in Matlab and solves the equations for heat and fluid transport using a Crank-Nicholson finite difference scheme. The model considers four meteorologically driven heat fluxes: shortwave solar radiation, longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux. Streambed conduction is also considered. Input data for the model were collected from June 13-18, 2012 over a 500 m reach of Meadowbrook Creek, a first order urban stream that drains a retention pond in the city of Syracuse, NY. Stream temperature data were recorded every 20 m longitudinally in the stream at 5-minute intervals using iButtons (model DS1922L, accuracy of ±0.5°C, resolution of 0.0625°C). Meteorological data, including air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed, were recorded at 5-minute intervals using an on-site weather station. Groundwater temperature was measured in wells adjacent to the stream. Stream dimensions, bed temperatures, and type of bed sediments were also collected. A constant rate tracer injection of Rhodamine WT was used to quantify groundwater inputs every 10 m independently to validate model results. Stream temperatures fluctuated diurnally by ~3-5 °C during the observation period with temperatures peaking around 2 pm and cooling overnight, reaching a minimum between 6 and 7 am. Spatially, the stream shows a cooling trend along the

  8. Development of Monthly Water Budget Estimates for the CONUS and Application to the Mississippi Alluvial Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reitz, M.; Sanford, W. E.; Senay, G. B.; Kress, W. H.; Ladd, D.

    2016-12-01

    As water resources become increasingly strained in the US and globally, the development of reliable methods of water availability estimation becomes ever more critical for making informed water use management decisions. Here we present new monthly 1km-resolution estimates of the set of water budget components of evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff, snow storage, and recharge for the modern time period of 2000-2013. We use a combination of remote sensing products and empirical estimates from ground-based data, to leverage both the spatial/temporal resolution of remote sensing and the overall magnitude checks from field data. For ET we use a combination of the MODIS-based USGS SSEBop data set and long-term ET magnitude estimates based on water balance data. We estimate runoff with an empirical regression against soil and surficial geology data, and use the SNODAS snow water equivalent product of the National Snow and Ice Data Center to incorporate snow storage. Recharge and groundwater storage change are then estimated as the balance of the precipitation for the month. After presenting the methods and CONUS-scale maps, we show an application of this work to understanding water availability in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain region, which has seen significant impacts on water resources due to irrigation and groundwater pumping. Our monthly timescale estimates are compared with results from other methods, and synthesized into a summary of water budget trends in the region.

  9. Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Global Water and Energy Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Chen, Junye

    2009-01-01

    In the Summer of 2009, NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) will have completed 28 years of global satellite data analyses. Here, we characterize the global water and energy budgets of MERRA, compared with available observations and the latest reanalyses. In this analysis, the climatology of the global average components are studied as well as the separate land and ocean averages. In addition, the time series of the global averages are evaluated. For example, the global difference of precipitation and evaporation generally shows the influence of water vapor observations on the system. Since the observing systems change in time, especially remotely sensed observations of water, significant temporal variations can occur across the 28 year record. These then are also closely connected to changes in the atmospheric energy and water budgets. The net imbalance of the energy budget at the surface can be large and different signs for different reanalyses. In MERRA, the imbalance of energy at the surface tends to improve with time being the smallest during the most recent and abundant satellite observations.

  10. A Model of Tax Compliance Under Budget-Constrained Auditors

    OpenAIRE

    Graetz, Michael J.; Jennifer F. Reinganum; Wilde, Louis L.

    1984-01-01

    In the midst of various taxpayer "revolts" and federal budget deficits of unprecedented magnitude, noncompliance with federal and state income tax laws has become an issue of significant policy concern. If the IRS' budget is limited, the probability that any individual taxpayer will be audited depends on the behavior of other taxpayers. Thus the problem of compliance involves a "congestion" effect, which generates strategic interaction among taxpayers as well as between taxpayers and the IRS....

  11. BEYOND BUDGETING

    OpenAIRE

    Edo Cvrkalj; Denis Smolar

    2015-01-01

    Traditional budgeting principles, with strictly defined business goals, have been, since 1998, slowly growing into more sophisticated and organization-adjusted alternative budgeting concepts. One of those alternative concepts is the “Beyond budgeting” model with an implemented performance effects measuring process. In order for the model to be practicable, budget planning and control has to be reoriented to the “bottom up” planning and control approach. In today’s modern bus...

  12. Earth Radiation Budget and Cloudiness Simulations with a General Circulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harshvardhan; Randall, David A.; Corsetti, Thomas G.

    1989-07-01

    The UCLA/GLA general circulation model has been endowed with new parameterizations of solar and terrestrial radiation, as well as new parameterized cloud optical properties. A simple representation of the cloud liquid water feedback is included. We have used the model and several observational datasets to analyze the effects of cloudiness on the Earth's radiation budget.Analysis of January and July results obtained with the full model shows that the simulated Earth radiation budget is in reasonable agreement with Nimbus 7 data. The globally averaged planetary albedo and outgoing longwave radiation am both slightly less than observed. A tropical minimum of the outgoing longwave radiation is simulated, but is weaker than observed. Comparisons of the simulated cloudiness with observations from ISCCP and HIRS2/MSU show that the model overpredicts subtropical and midlatitude cloudiness.The simulated cloud radiative forcings at the top of the atmosphere, at the Earth's surface, and across the atmosphere are discussed, and comparisons are made with the limited observations available. The simulated atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) is comparable in magnitude to the latent heating. We have compared the clear-sky radiation fields obtained using Methods I and II of Cess and Potter; the results show significant differences between the two methods, primarily due to systematic variations of the cloudiness with time of day.An important feature of the new terrestrial radiation parameterization is its incorporation (for the first time in this GCM) of the effects of the water vapor continuum. To determine the effects of this change on the model results, we performed a numerical experiment in which the effects of the water vapor continuum were neglected. The troposphere warmed dramatically, and shallow convection weakened, and the radiative effects of the clouds were significantly enhanced.

  13. Evaluating the performance of land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN v1.0 on water and energy flux estimation with a single- and multi-layer energy budget scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yiying; Ryder, James; Bastrikov, Vladislav; McGrath, Matthew J.; Naudts, Kim; Otto, Juliane; Ottlé, Catherine; Peylin, Philippe; Polcher, Jan; Valade, Aude; Black, Andrew; Elbers, Jan A.; Moors, Eddy; Foken, Thomas; van Gorsel, Eva; Haverd, Vanessa; Heinesch, Bernard; Tiedemann, Frank; Knohl, Alexander; Launiainen, Samuli; Loustau, Denis; Ogée, Jérôme; Vessala, Timo; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

    2016-09-01

    Canopy structure is one of the most important vegetation characteristics for land-atmosphere interactions, as it determines the energy and scalar exchanges between the land surface and the overlying air mass. In this study we evaluated the performance of a newly developed multi-layer energy budget in the ORCHIDEE-CAN v1.0 land surface model (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems - CANopy), which simulates canopy structure and can be coupled to an atmospheric model using an implicit coupling procedure. We aim to provide a set of acceptable parameter values for a range of forest types. Top-canopy and sub-canopy flux observations from eight sites were collected in order to conduct this evaluation. The sites crossed climate zones from temperate to boreal and the vegetation types included deciduous, evergreen broad-leaved and evergreen needle-leaved forest with a maximum leaf area index (LAI; all-sided) ranging from 3.5 to 7.0. The parametrization approach proposed in this study was based on three selected physical processes - namely the diffusion, advection, and turbulent mixing within the canopy. Short-term sub-canopy observations and long-term surface fluxes were used to calibrate the parameters in the sub-canopy radiation, turbulence, and resistance modules with an automatic tuning process. The multi-layer model was found to capture the dynamics of sub-canopy turbulence, temperature, and energy fluxes. The performance of the new multi-layer model was further compared against the existing single-layer model. Although the multi-layer model simulation results showed few or no improvements to both the nighttime energy balance and energy partitioning during winter compared with a single-layer model simulation, the increased model complexity does provide a more detailed description of the canopy micrometeorology of various forest types. The multi-layer model links to potential future environmental and ecological studies such as the assessment of in

  14. Estimates of consumptive use and ground-water return flow using water budgets in Palo Verde Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen-Joyce, Sandra J.; Kimsey, Steven L.

    1987-01-01

    Palo Verde Valley, California, is an agricultural area in the flood plain of the Colorado River where irrigation water is diverted from the river and groundwater is discharged to a network of drainage ditches and (or) the river. Consumptive use by vegetation and groundwater return flow were calculated using water budgets. Consumptive use by vegetation was 484,000 acre-ft in 1981, 453,600 acre-ft in 1982, 364,400 acre-ft in 1983, and 374,300 acre-ft in 1984. The consumptive-use estimates are most sensitive to two measured components of the water budget, the diversion at Palo Verde Dam and the discharge from drainage ditches to the river. Groundwater return flow was 31,700 acre-ft in 1981, 24,000 acre-ft in 1982, 2,500 acre-ft in 1983, and 7 ,900 acre-ft in 1984. The return-flow estimates are most sensitive to discharge from drainage ditches; various irrigation requirements and crop areas, particularly alfalfa; the diversion at Palo Verde Dam; and the estimate of consumptive use. During increasing flows in the river, the estimate of groundwater return flow is sensitive also to change in groundwater storage. Change in groundwater storage was estimated to be -5,700 acre-ft in 1981, -12,600 acre-ft in 1982, 5,200 acre-ft in 1983, and 11 ,600 acre-ft in 1984. Changes in storage can be a significant component in the water budget used to estimate groundwater return flow but is negligible in the water budget used to estimate consumptive use. Change in storage was 1 to 3% of annual consumptive use. Change in storage for the area drained by the river ranged from 7 to 96% of annual groundwater return flow during the 4 years studied. Consumptive use calculated as diversions minus return flows was consistently lower than consumptive use calculated in a water budget. Water-budget estimates of consumptive use account for variations in precipitation, tributary inflow, river stage, and groundwater storage. The calculations for diversions minus return flows do not account for these

  15. Effects of radiation and turbulence on the diabatic heating and water budget of the stratiform region of a tropical cloud cluster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churchill, Dean D.; Houze, Robert A., Jr.

    1991-01-01

    A twi-dimensional kinematic model has been used to diagnose the thermodynamic, water vapor, and hydrometeor fields of the stratiform clouds associated with a mesoscale tropical cloud cluster. The model incorporates ice- and water-cloud microphysics, visible and infrared radiation, and convective adjustment. It is intended to determine the relative contributions of radiation, mycrophysics, and turbulence to diabatic heating, and the effects that radiation has on the water budget of the cluster in the absence of dynamical interactions. The model has been initialized with thermodynamic fields and wind velocities diagnosed from a GATE tropical squall line. It is found that radiation does not directly affect the water budget of the stratiform region, and any radiative effect on hydrometeors must involve interaction with dynamics.

  16. Groundwater levels, geochemistry, and water budget of the Tsala Apopka Lake system, west-central Florida, 2004–12

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, W. Scott; Metz, Patricia A.; Ryan, Patrick J.; Fulkerson, Mark; Downing, Harry C.

    2017-12-18

    , and the Upper Floridan aquifer; and to estimate an annual water budget for each pool and for the entire lake system for 2004–12. The hydrologic interactions were evaluated using hydraulic head and geochemical data. Geochemical data, including major ion, isotope, and age-tracer data, were used to evaluate sources of water and to distinguish flow paths. Hydrologic connection of the surficial environment (lakes, ponds, wetlands, and the surficial aquifer) was quantified on the basis of a conceptualized annual water-budget model. The model included the change in surface water and groundwater storage, precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface-water inflow and outflow, and net groundwater exchange with the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer. The control volume for each pool extended to the base of the surficial aquifer and covered an area defined to exceed the maximum inundated area for each pool during 2004–12 by 0.5 foot. Net groundwater flow was computed as a lumped value and was either positive or negative, with a negative value indicating downward or lateral leakage from the control volume and a positive value indicating upward leakage to the control volume.The annual water budget for Tsala Apopka Lake was calculated using a combination of field observations and remotely sensed data for each of three pools and for the composite three pool area. A digital elevation model at a 5-foot grid spacing and bathymetric survey data were used to define the land-surface elevation and volume of each pool and to calculate the changes in inundated area with change in lake stage. Continuous lake-stage and groundwater-level data were used to define the change in storage for each pool. The rainfall data used in the water-budget calculations were based on daily radar reflectance data and measured rainfall from weather stations. Evapotranspiration was computed as a function of reference evapotranspiration, adjusted to actual evapotranspiration using a monthly land-cover coefficient

  17. Standardized Water Budget Index and Validation in Drought Estimation of Haihe River Basin, North China

    OpenAIRE

    Shaohua Liu; Denghua Yan; Hao Wang; Chuanzhe Li; Baisha Weng; Tianling Qin

    2016-01-01

    The physical-based drought indices such as the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) with the fixed time scale is inadequate for the multiscalar drought assessment, and the multiscalar drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based on the meteorological factors are lack of physical mechanism and cannot depict the actual water budget. To fill this gap, t...

  18. Spatial Distribution of Ground-Water Recharge Estimated with a Water-Budget Method for the Jordan Creek Watershed, Lehigh County, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risser, Dennis W.

    2008-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Geological Survey, to illustrate a water-budget method for mapping the spatial distribution of ground-water recharge for a 76-square-mile part of the Jordan Creek watershed, northwest of Allentown, in Lehigh County, Pennsylvania. Recharge was estimated by using the Hydrological Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) water-budget model for 577 landscape units in Jordan Creek watershed, delineated on the basis of their soils, land use/land cover, and mean annual precipitation during 1951-2000. The water-budget model routes precipitation falling on each landscape unit to components of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, storage, and vertical percolation (recharge) for a five-layer soil column on a daily basis. The spatial distribution of mean annual recharge during 1951-2000 for each landscape unit was mapped by the use of a geographic information system. Recharge simulated by the water-budget model in Jordan Creek watershed during 1951-2000 averaged 12.3 inches per year and ranged by landscape unit from 0.11 to 17.05 inches per year. Mean annual recharge during 1951-2000 simulated by the water-budget model was most sensitive to changes to input values for precipitation and runoff-curve number. Mean annual recharge values for the crop, forest, pasture, and low-density urban land-use/land-cover classes were similar (11.2 to 12.2 inches per year) but were substantially less for high-density urban (6.8 inches per year), herbaceous wetlands (2.5 inches per year), and forested wetlands (1.3 inches per year). Recharge rates simulated for the crop, forest, pasture, and low-density urban land-cover classes were similar because those land-use/land-cover classes are represented in the model with parameter values that either did not significantly affect simulated recharge or tended to have offsetting effects on recharge. For example, for landscapes with forest land

  19. Standardized Water Budget Index and Validation in Drought Estimation of Haihe River Basin, North China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohua Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The physical-based drought indices such as the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI with the fixed time scale is inadequate for the multiscalar drought assessment, and the multiscalar drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI, and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI based on the meteorological factors are lack of physical mechanism and cannot depict the actual water budget. To fill this gap, the Standardized Water Budget Index (SWBI is constructed based on the difference between areal precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (AET, which can describe the actual water budget but also assess the drought at multiple time scales. Then, sc-PDSI was taken as the reference drought index to compare with multiscalar drought indices at different time scale in Haihe River basin. The result shows that SWBI correlates better with sc-PDSI and the RMSE of SWBI is less than other multiscalar drought indices. In addition, all of drought indices show a decreasing trend in Haihe River Basin, possibly due to the decreasing precipitation from 1961 to 2010. The decreasing trends of SWBI were significant and consistent at all the time scales, while the decreasing trends of other multiscalar drought indices are insignificant at time scale less than 3 months.

  20. Water budget and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, S.; Zhai, S.; Chen, B.; Li, T.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) relative humidity, Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation, Institut Français pour la Recherche et l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) evaporation, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) FNL reanalysis and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) tropical cyclone (TC) best track data are used to examine azimuthal mean and shear-relative water budget components associated with western North Pacific TCs of five intensity change categories: weakening, neutral, slowly intensifying, rapidly intensifying (initial) and rapid intensifying (continuing). The results show that: 1) In terms of azimuthal mean, evaporation plays an important role in both of the onset and continuation of storm rapid intensification (RI) and mid-level environmental relative humidity (ERH) within 600 km plays an important role in continuing RI. 2) Downshear left mid-level ERH and downshear right and upshear right evaporation are crucial for the onset of storm RI. 3) Upshear mid-level ERH, evaporation at all quadrants, upshear inner-core moisture flux convergence (MFC) and precipitation at all quadrants except for downshear left are important for continuing RI. 4) Storms undergoing continuing RI have more symmetric distributions of all the water budget components (i.e., ERH, precipitation, evaporation and MFC) than other storms. Our results suggest that different portions of water budget components play different roles in storm RI.

  1. Surface Water Nutrient Budget Controlled by Vegetation Succession in the Deglaciating Copper River Basin, Southcentral Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomco, P. L.; Zulueta, R. C.; Welker, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    In southcentral Alaska, rapid climate change is manifested by extensive recession of glaciers. This is accompanied by an acceleration of plant succession, as recently deglaciated landscapes evolve to form mature forests and wetlands over time. As ice melt exposes ancient labile nutrients, and as vegetation succession generates high ecosystem productivity, changes in the patterns of dissolved C and N transport from terrestrial to aquatic systems are hypothesized, with cascading impacts on in-river, estuarine and possibly ocean nutrient processing. The Copper River watershed, at 63,000 km2, is the largest drainage basin in the Gulf of Alaska, and derives the major portion of discharge from glacier melt. The commercial fishery based on returning salmon is valued at 25 million dollars, and with salmon return directly linked to phytoplankton blooms in the Gulf of Alaska, understanding nutrient delivery to the marine environment is vital in determining population dynamics of marine and freshwater organisms at all trophic levels. To make predictions about the evolution of terrestrial nutrient contributions to the Copper River, we employ a space-for-time substitution at two endmembers representative of glacial successional stages in the watershed: 1) Lakina River, a recently deglaciated ecosystem dominated by rocky glacial debris containing early successional vegetation species (Dryas, spp., Shepherdia spp., and Salix spp.), and 2) May Creek, a mature spruce-dominated forested ecosystem with surface water contributions from permafrost, snow melt, and precipitation. In addition, we attempted to determine the relative contribution of source water to May Creek via sampling of two nearby springs throughout the season. To determine the seasonality of each site's nutrient budget, we measured dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), δ18O, δD, conductivity, NH4-N, NO3-N, Fe (soluble and colloidal), and Si flux from grab

  2. Ground observations and remote sensing data for integrated modelisation of water budget in the Merguellil catchment, Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mougenot, Bernard

    2016-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is affected by water scarcity. Some countries as Tunisia reached the limit of 550 m3/year/capita due overexploitation of low water resources for irrigation, domestic uses and industry. A lot of programs aim to evaluate strategies to improve water consumption at regional level. In central Tunisia, on the Merguellil catchment, we develop integrated water resources modelisations based on social investigations, ground observations and remote sensing data. The main objective is to close the water budget at regional level and to estimate irrigation and water pumping to test scenarios with endusers. Our works benefit from French, bilateral and European projects (ANR, MISTRALS/SICMed, FP6, FP7…), GMES/GEOLAND-ESA) and also network projects as JECAM and AERONET, where the Merguellil site is a reference. This site has specific characteristics associating irrigated and rainfed crops mixing cereals, market gardening and orchards and will be proposed as a new environmental observing system connected to the OMERE, TENSIFT and OSR systems respectively in Tunisia, Morocco and France. We show here an original and large set of ground and remote sensing data mainly acquired from 2008 to present to be used for calibration/validation of water budget processes and integrated models for present and scenarios: - Ground data: meteorological stations, water budget at local scale: fluxes tower, soil fluxes, soil and surface temperature, soil moisture, drainage, flow, water level in lakes, aquifer, vegetation parameters on selected fieds/month (LAI, height, biomass, yield), land cover: 3 times/year, bare soil roughness, irrigation and pumping estimations, soil texture. - Remote sensing data: remote sensing products from multi-platform (MODIS, SPOT, LANDSAT, ASTER, PLEIADES, ASAR, COSMO-SkyMed, TerraSAR X…), multi-wavelength (solar, micro-wave and thermal) and multi-resolution (0.5 meters to 1 km). Ground observations are used (1) to calibrate soil

  3. Monthly Water-Budget Components for Roi-Namur, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, 2000-12

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The zipped folder (Monthly_water_budget_Roi-Namur_2000-12.zip) associated with this metadata file contains 156 polygon shapefiles. Collectively, the 156 shapefiles...

  4. Exploring soil water budget of a pristine oak wood in peri-urban Rome, central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Moretti

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available 72 544x376 Normal 0 14 false false false IT X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabella normale"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";} Exploring soil water budget of a pristine oak wood in peri-urban Rome, central Italy. The water budget in bounded and fenced areas was assessed by analyzing pedo-climatic conditions and the soil moisture content. Water content in the soil was measured using a Theta Probe Soil Moisture sensor (ML2x by Delta-T-Devices with a direct read-out device that provides soil moisture estimates as percent volume. The correlation between the experimental values obtained by the gravimetricmethod and thevalues directly measured by Theta Probe was found significant. Soil moisture at 100 cm depth indicates soil water as permanently available for plants through the year except during exceptionally dry summer periods. Therefore, oaks experienced no water deficiency with normal rainfall rates, possibly suffering root asphyxia during rainy years. Results are collected in fenced areas, sheltered by the action of the local fauna.

  5. Budget constraint and vaccine dosing: A mathematical modelling exercise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Standaert, Baudouin A.; Curran, Desmond; Postma, Maarten J.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Increasing the number of vaccine doses may potentially improve overall efficacy. Decision-makers need information about choosing the most efficient dose schedule to maximise the total health gain of a population when operating under a constrained budget. The objective of this study is to

  6. Neuronet Modelling of the Processes of Budgeting and Use of Labour Resources at Coal Mining Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hlіnska Olha M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers issues of efficient budgeting and use of labour resources at coal mining enterprises. It proves expediency of use of modern neuronet, namely, multilayer perceptron, for solution of tasks of modelling the process of budgeting and use of labour resources at coal mining enterprises. It shows that Statistika is the best software package for creation of neuronets of the multilayer perceptron architecture. On the basis of analysis and comparative characteristic the article selects the topology and builds a neuronet model of budgeting and use of labour resources at coal mining enterprises.

  7. A phosphorus budget for Northern Ireland: inputs to inland and coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, R. V.; Jordan, C.; Annett, J. A.

    2005-03-01

    The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (200/60/EC) requires Member States to restore all surface waters to 'good ecological status' by 2015. There is growing recognition that phosphorus (P) is the key nutrient in controlling the degree of eutrophication of inland waters. Recent increases in the diffuse P enrichment of surface waters from Northern Ireland agriculture, operating at a P surplus of 14.8 kg ha -1 year -1 have nullified the impacts of programmes to reduce P from point sources. The aim of the present study was to identify an overall P budget for the inland and coastal waters of Northern Ireland and to apportion the total to diffuse and point sources. To calculate the diffuse agricultural contribution, export coefficients were used. These had been derived for total P previously by multiple regression analysis for a number of CORINE land cover classes. A GIS was employed to estimate total P losses for these land use types for the whole land cover of Northern Ireland. By this method it was determined that 1130 tonnes of total P are exported from agricultural land to inland and coastal waters. In addition there are other diffuse contributions from urban streets and surfaces, moorland, forests and peat bogs, which total 165 tonnes of total P. The human contribution to the overall P budget was divided into mains-sewered households (945 tonnes), households connected to septic tanks (118 tonnes) and industrial discharges (40 tonnes). Overall agriculture contributes some 48% of all P exports to inland and coastal waters. As a disproportionate amount of the effluent from waste water treatment works discharges directly to sea or estuary, the agricultural contribution to inland waters is increased to 58%.

  8. Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Energy and Water Budgets in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Laura Suzanne

    According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, climate change will exacerbate current climate and non-climate stressors on agricultural systems in sub-Saharan Africa. This will adversely impact food security and the wellbeing of communities. Small-scale farmers grow more than 90 percent of the food produced in the region and many households depend on productive local growing conditions to support for their families. A better understanding of recent and near future climate constraints is important for identifying future food security risks and locally-appropriate adaptation strategies. This dissertation research examines impacts of weather and climate on vegetation productivity in geographically diverse areas of east Africa and the semi-arid Sahel. The focus of this research is how surface energy and water budgets respond to variations in rainfall and temperature. It asks the following questions: Where will warmer temperature pose a hazard to rainfed agriculture in the Sahel in the next 20 years? What environment and weather conditions led to above average surface temperature during the recent decade in east Africa? How have declines in rainfall since the 1980s impacted vegetation productivity and hydrology in Tanzania? The research incorporates a variety of earth observation data, including historical records from in situ, model-derived, and satellite-observed sources and projections from global climate models. A major contribution is the identification of specific areas, mainly in semi-arid climate zones, where increases in temperature and decreases to rainfall have large negative impacts on vegetation productivity. The research also presents new methods for evaluating land-atmosphere interactions in the context of hazards to vegetation.

  9. Application of Dynamic Energy Budget theory for conservation relevant modelling of Bird life histories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teixeira, C.M.G.L.

    2016-01-01

    Teixeira, C.M.G.L. (2016, Januari 13). Application of Dynamic Energy Budget Theory For Conservation Relevant Modelling of Bird Life Histories. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Prom./coprom.: prof. dr. S.A.L.M. Kooijman & T. Sousa.

  10. Changes in water level, land use, and hydrological budget in a semi-permanent playa lake, southwest Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rodríguez, M; Green, A J; López, R; Martos-Rosillo, S

    2012-01-01

    Medina playa lake, a Ramsar site in western Andalusia, is a brackish lowland lake of 120 ha with an average depth of 1 m. Water flows into Medina from its 1,748-ha watershed, but the hydrology of the lake has not previously been studied. This paper describes the application of a water budget model on a monthly scale over a 6-year period, based on a conceptual hydrological model, and considers different future scenarios after calibration to improve the understanding of the lake's hydrological functioning. Climatic variables from a nearby weather station and observational data (water-level evolution) were used to develop the model. Comparison of measured and predicted values demonstrated that each model component provided a reasonable output with a realistic interaction among the components. The model was then used to explore the potential consequences of land-use changes. Irrigation of olive groves would significantly reduce both the hydroperiod (becoming dry 15% of the time) and the average depth of the lake (water level climate change.

  11. A Water Balance Budget for Bung Boraphet—A Flood Plain Wetland-Reservoir Complex in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter R. Hawkins

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available A water balance model was developed for Bung Boraphet reservoir, a large flood plain lake in Thailand, from daily measurements over three inflow outflow cycles between 2003 and 2006. Measurement error was 10% (as one standard deviation of the total measured volume. The specific yield from the Bung Boraphet catchment was 3.9 m3/ha/yr and surface water inflow from the local catchment was the largest gain term and evaporation was the largest loss term in the water budget. Irrigation was the second largest loss term and dry season demand exceeded the storage supply. Uncontrolled extraction of water for irrigation is regarded as a threat to the reservoir fishery, although the increasing drawdown range may benefit wetland biodiversity. Sustainable management of the Bung Boraphet wetland will depend on careful management based on an informed understanding of the ecohydrological requirements of all wetland uses. Water balance models like this one are recommended as a tool to allocate water equitably and in ways which can be integrated across the Chao Phraya basin.

  12. Environmental setting, water budget, and stream assessment for the Broad Run watershed, Chester County, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinotto, Peter J.; Reif, Andrew G.; Olson, Leif E.

    2005-01-01

    The Broad Run watershed lies almost entirely in West Bradford Township, Chester County, Pa., and drains 7.08 square miles to the West Branch Brandywine Creek. Because of the potential effect of encroaching development and other stresses on the Broad Run watershed, West Bradford Township, the Chester County Water Resources Authority, and the Chester County Health Department entered into a cooperative study with the U.S. Geological Survey to complete an annual water budget and stream assessment of overall conditions. The annual water budget quantified the basic parameters of the hydrologic cycle for the climatic conditions present from April 1, 2003, to March 31, 2004. These water-budget data identified immediate needs and (or) deficits that were present within the hydrologic cycle during that period, if present; however, an annual water budget encompassing a single year does not identify long-term trends. The stream assessment was conducted in two parts and assessed the overall condition of the watershed, an overall assessment of the fluvial-geomorphic conditions within the watershed and an overall assessment of the stream-quality conditions. The data collected will document present (2004) conditions and identify potential vulnerabilities to future disturbances. For the annual period from April 1, 2003, to March 31, 2004, determination of an annual water budget indicated that of the 67.8 inches of precipitation that fell on the Broad Run watershed, 38.8 inches drained by way of streamflow to the West Branch Brandywine Creek. Of this 38.8 inches of streamflow, local-minimum hydrograph separation techniques determined that 7.30 inches originated from direct runoff and 31.5 inches originated from base flow. The remaining precipitation went into ground-water storage (1.71 inches) and was lost to evapotranspiration (27.3 inches). Ground-water recharge for this period-35.2 inches-was based on these values and an estimated ground-water evapotranspiration rate of 2 inches

  13. Hydrogeologic framework refinement, ground-water flow and storage, water-chemistry analyses, and water-budget components of the Yuma area, southwestern Arizona and southeastern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Jesse E.; Land, Michael; Faunt, Claudia C.; Leake, S.A.; Reichard, Eric G.; Fleming, John B.; Pool, D.R.

    2006-01-01

    The ground-water and surface-water system in the Yuma area in southwestern Arizona and southeastern California is managed intensely to meet water-delivery requirements of customers in the United States, to manage high ground-water levels in the valleys, and to maintain treaty-mandated water-quality and quantity requirements of Mexico. The following components in this report, which were identified to be useful in the development of a ground-water management model, are: (1) refinement of the hydrogeologic framework; (2) updated water-level maps, general ground-water flow patterns, and an estimate of the amount of ground water stored in the mound under Yuma Mesa; (3) review and documentation of the ground-water budget calculated by the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior (Reclamation); and (4) water-chemistry characterization to identify the spatial distribution of water quality, information on sources and ages of ground water, and information about the productive-interval depths of the aquifer. A refined three-dimensional digital hydrogeologic framework model includes the following hydrogeologic units from bottom to top: (1) the effective hydrologic basement of the basin aquifer, which includes the Pliocene Bouse Formation, Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rocks, and pre-Tertiary metamorphic and plutonic rocks; (2) undifferentiated lower units to represent the Pliocene transition zone and wedge zone; (3) coarse-gravel unit; (4) lower, middle, and upper basin fill to represent the upper, fine-grained zone between the top of the coarse-gravel unit and the land surface; and (5) clay A and clay B. Data for the refined model includes digital elevation models, borehole lithology data, geophysical data, and structural data to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units. The top surface of the coarse-gravel unit, defined by using borehole and geophysical data, varies similarly to terraces resulting from the down cutting of the Colorado River. Clay A

  14. Water and nutrient budgets of ponds in integrated agriculture-aquaculture systems in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nhan, D.K.; Verdegem, M.C.J.; Milstein, A.; Verreth, J.A.J.

    2008-01-01

    A participatory on-farm study analysed water and nutrient budgets of six low and four high water-exchange ponds of integrated agriculture-aquaculture (IAA) farms in the Mekong delta. Water, nitrogen (N), organic carbon (OC) and phosphorus (P) flows through the ponds were monitored, and data on fish

  15. Use of environmental sensors and sensor networks to develop water and salinity budgets for seasonal wetland real-time water quality management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, N.W.T.; Ortega, R.; Rahilly, P.J.A,; Royer, C.W.

    2009-10-01

    Successful management of river salt loads in complex and highly regulated river basins such as the San Joaquin of California presents significant challenges to Information Technology. Models are used as means of simulating major hydrologic processes in the basin which affect water quality and can be useful as tools for organizing basin information in a structured and readily accessible manner. Models can also be used to extrapolate the results of system monitoring since it is impossible to collect data for every point and non-point source of a pollutant in the Basin. Fundamental to every model is the concept of mass balance. This paper describes the use of state-of-the-art sensor technologies deployed in concert to obtain the first water and salinity budgets for a 60,000 hectare tract of seasonally managed wetlands in the San Joaquin Basin of California.

  16. An approach for modeling sediment budgets in supply-limited rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Scott A.; Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Melis, Theodore S.

    2010-01-01

    Reliable predictions of sediment transport and river morphology in response to variations in natural and human-induced drivers are necessary for river engineering and management. Because engineering and management applications may span a wide range of space and time scales, a broad spectrum of modeling approaches has been developed, ranging from suspended-sediment "rating curves" to complex three-dimensional morphodynamic models. Suspended sediment rating curves are an attractive approach for evaluating changes in multi-year sediment budgets resulting from changes in flow regimes because they are simple to implement, computationally efficient, and the empirical parameters can be estimated from quantities that are commonly measured in the field (i.e., suspended sediment concentration and water discharge). However, the standard rating curve approach assumes a unique suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. This assumption is not valid in rivers where sediment supply varies enough to cause changes in particle size or changes in areal coverage of sediment on the bed; both of these changes cause variations in suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. More complex numerical models of hydraulics and morphodynamics have been developed to address such physical changes of the bed. This additional complexity comes at a cost in terms of computations as well as the type and amount of data required for model setup, calibration, and testing. Moreover, application of the resulting sediment-transport models may require observations of bed-sediment boundary conditions that require extensive (and expensive) observations or, alternatively, require the use of an additional model (subject to its own errors) merely to predict the bed-sediment boundary conditions for use by the transport model. In this paper we present a hybrid approach that combines aspects of the rating curve method and the more complex morphodynamic models. Our primary objective

  17. Investigating the relation of thermodynamic processes to local budgets Investigating the relation of thermodynamic processes to local budgets in a mesoscale weather prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrik, R.; Gassmann, A.; Schlünzen, H.

    2009-09-01

    Recent models apply the non-hydrostatic compressible equations and include various physical parameterizations. On the one hand, such models are able to resolve flow structures on a very wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the other hand, their complexity makes it difficult to evaluate and later on to improve the model. One usually verifies the model with meteorological data coming from remote sensing systems or in-situ measurements. Besides the evaluation of the model results, it is essential to evaluate the physical adequacy of the model itself. In this context, a finite volume diagnostic approach, that diagnoses the local budget of various quantities like energy, water mass and total mass in a predefined control volume, is applied for evaluating the physical quality of the mesoscale model COSMO 1. The monitoring of the conservation properties is essential for model development and for the investigation of the hydrological cycle, as well. E. g., the application of different discretization schemes, a variety of physical parameterizations and even non-physical artificial damping mechanisms, added explicitly and implicitly, can detrimentally influence the desired conservation properties. In that talk, it is presented how the introduced diagnostic approach should be applied in order to minimize errors originating from discrete grids and flux reconstructions using an idealized test bed. Starting with a first dry convection test case, the application of our tool to the COSMO model shows good conservation properties far away from the lateral and upper relaxation boundaries. If cloud or rain processes are involved in the simulations, large errors in energy and total mass conservation will reveal. Interestingly, the water mass is not contaminated. It is shown, how physical processes and numerical schemes contaminate the local budgets. Regarding this fact, it is demonstrated how to construct a saturation adjustment technique (SAT) for COSMO to reduce these errors

  18. Modelling shellfish growth with dynamic energy budget models: an application for cockles and mussels in the Oosterschelde (southwest Netherlands)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Troost, T.A.; Wijsman, J.W.M.; Saraiva, S.; Freitas, V.

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic energy budget models for growth of individual cockles (Cerastoderma edule) and mussels (Mytilus edulis) are adjusted and calibrated to the Oosterschelde by formulating and parametrizing their functional responses using an extensive set of field observations. The resulting model predictions

  19. A conceptual framework for budget allocation in the RIVM Chronic Disease Model - A case study of Diabetes Mellitus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogenveen RT; Feenstra TL; Baal PHM van; Baan CA; PZO

    2005-01-01

    The research project 'Priority setting in chronic diseases: methodology for budget allocation' aims to develop a methodology to support optimal allocation of the health care budget with respect to chronic diseases. The current report describes the modelling steps required to address budget

  20. Total Land Water Storage Change over 2003 - 2013 Estimated from a Global Mass Budget Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieng, H. B.; Champollion, N.; Cazenave, A.; Wada, Y.; Schrama, E.; Meyssignac, B.

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the total land water storage (LWS) change between 2003 and 2013 using a global water mass budget approach. Hereby we compare the ocean mass change (estimated from GRACE space gravimetry on the one hand, and from the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for steric effects on the other hand) to the sum of the main water mass components of the climate system: glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, atmospheric water and LWS (the latter being the unknown quantity to be estimated). For glaciers and ice sheets, we use published estimates of ice mass trends based on various types of observations covering different time spans between 2003 and 2013. From the mass budget equation, we derive a net LWS trend over the study period. The mean trend amounts to +0.30 +/- 0.18 mm/yr in sea level equivalent. This corresponds to a net decrease of -108 +/- 64 cu km/yr in LWS over the 2003-2013 decade. We also estimate the rate of change in LWS and find no significant acceleration over the study period. The computed mean global LWS trend over the study period is shown to be explained mainly by direct anthropogenic effects on land hydrology, i.e. the net effect of groundwater depletion and impoundment of water in man-made reservoirs, and to a lesser extent the effect of naturally-forced land hydrology variability. Our results compare well with independent estimates of human-induced changes in global land hydrology.

  1. Outcomes analysis of hospital management model in restricted budget conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virsavia Vaseva

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Facing conditions of market economy and financial crisis, the head of any healthcare facility has to take adequate decisions about the cost-effective functioning of the hospital. Along with cost reduction, the main problem is how to maintain a high level of health services. The aim of our study was to analyse the quality of healthcare services after the implementation of control over expenses due to a reduction in the budgetary resources in Military Medical Academy (MMA, Sofia, Bulgaria. Data from the hospital information system and the Financial Department about the incomes and expenditures for patient treatment were used. We conducted a retrospective study on the main components of clinical indicators in 2013 to reveal the main problems in the hospital management. In 2014, control was imposed on the use of the most expensive medicines and consumables. Comparative analysis was made of the results of the medical services in MMA for 2013 and 2014. Our results showed that despite the limited budget in MMA over the last year, the policy of control over operational costs succeeded in maintaining the quality of healthcare services. While reducing the expenses for medicines, consumables and laboratory investigations by ∼26%, some quality criteria for healthcare services were observed to be improved by ∼9%. Financial crisis and budget reduction urge healthcare economists to create adequate economical instruments to assist the normal functioning of hospital facilities. Our analysis showed that when a right policy is chosen, better results may be achieved with fewer resources.

  2. The carbon budget of a large catchment in the Argentine Pampa plain through hydrochemical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glok Galli, M; Martínez, D E; Kruse, E E

    2014-09-15

    Mar Chiquita is a coastal lagoon located in the Argentine Buenos Aires province in South America. The aim of this study is to estimate the annual contribution of inland waters to the carbon cycle in this lagoon's catchment by estimating the corresponding local carbon budget. Fifteen pairs of water samples were chosen to carry out hydrogeochemical modeling using PHREEQC software. Groundwater samples were considered as recharge water (initial solutions), while streamwater samples were taken as groundwater discharge (final solutions for inverse modeling/reference solutions for direct modeling). Fifteen direct models were performed, where each groundwater sample was constrained to calcite equilibrium under two different carbon dioxide partial pressure (PCO2) conditions: atmospheric conditions (log PCO2 (atm) = -3.5) and a PCO2 value of log PCO2 (atm) = -3. Groundwater samples are close to calcite equilibrium conditions. The calcite precipitation process is kinetically slower than gas diffusion, causing oversaturation of this reactant phase in streamwater samples. This was accompanied by a pH increase of approximately two units due to a PCO2 decrease. From the fifteen inverse models it was estimated that, of the total carbon that enters per year in the hydrological cycle of the study area, about 11.9% is delivered to the atmosphere as CO2 and around 6.7% is buried in sediments. This would indicate that 81.4% of the remaining carbon is retained in equilibrium within the system or discharged into the Mar Chiquita lagoon and/or directly to the ocean through regional flows. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A Methodological Review of US Budget-Impact Models for New Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauskopf, Josephine; Earnshaw, Stephanie

    2016-11-01

    A budget-impact analysis is required by many jurisdictions when adding a new drug to the formulary. However, previous reviews have indicated that adherence to methodological guidelines is variable. In this methodological review, we assess the extent to which US budget-impact analyses for new drugs use recommended practices. We describe recommended practice for seven key elements in the design of a budget-impact analysis. Targeted literature searches for US studies reporting estimates of the budget impact of a new drug were performed and we prepared a summary of how each study addressed the seven key elements. The primary finding from this review is that recommended practice is not followed in many budget-impact analyses. For example, we found that growth in the treated population size and/or changes in disease-related costs expected during the model time horizon for more effective treatments was not included in several analyses for chronic conditions. In addition, all drug-related costs were not captured in the majority of the models. Finally, for most studies, one-way sensitivity and scenario analyses were very limited, and the ranges used in one-way sensitivity analyses were frequently arbitrary percentages rather than being data driven. The conclusions from our review are that changes in population size, disease severity mix, and/or disease-related costs should be properly accounted for to avoid over- or underestimating the budget impact. Since each budget holder might have different perspectives and different values for many of the input parameters, it is also critical for published budget-impact analyses to include extensive sensitivity and scenario analyses based on realistic input values.

  4. Aggregating Hydrometeorological Data from International Monitoring Networks Across Earth's Largest Lake System to Quantify Uncertainty in Historical Water Budget Records, Improve Regional Water Budget Projections, and Differentiate Drivers Behind a Recent Record-Setting Surge in Water Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Bruxer, J.; Smith, J.; Hunter, T.; Fortin, V.; Clites, A. H.; Durnford, D.; Qian, S.; Seglenieks, F.

    2015-12-01

    Resolving and projecting the water budget of the North American Great Lakes basin (Earth's largest lake system) requires aggregation of data from a complex array of in situ monitoring and remote sensing products that cross an international border (leading to potential sources of bias and other inconsistencies), and are relatively sparse over the surfaces of the lakes themselves. Data scarcity over the surfaces of the lakes is a particularly significant problem because, unlike Earth's other large freshwater basins, the Great Lakes basin water budget is (on annual scales) comprised of relatively equal contributions from runoff, over-lake precipitation, and over-lake evaporation. Consequently, understanding drivers behind changes in regional water storage and water levels requires a data management framework that can reconcile uncertainties associated with data scarcity and bias, and propagate those uncertainties into regional water budget projections and historical records. Here, we assess the development of a historical hydrometeorological database for the entire Great Lakes basin with records dating back to the late 1800s, and describe improvements that are specifically intended to differentiate hydrological, climatological, and anthropogenic drivers behind recent extreme changes in Great Lakes water levels. Our assessment includes a detailed analysis of the extent to which extreme cold winters in central North America in 2013-2014 (caused by the anomalous meridional upper air flow - commonly referred to in the public media as the "polar vortex" phenomenon) altered the thermal and hydrologic regimes of the Great Lakes and led to a record setting surge in water levels between January 2014 and December 2015.

  5. Introducing non-flooded crops in rice-dominated landscapes: Impact on carbon, nitrogen and water budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauker, Frank; Wassmann, Reiner; Amelung, Wulf; Breuer, Lutz; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Conrad, Ralf; Ekschmitt, Klemens; Goldbach, Heiner; He, Yao; John, Katharina; Kiese, Ralf; Kraus, David; Reinhold-Hurek, Barbara; Siemens, Jan; Weller, Sebastian; Wolters, Volkmar

    2013-04-01

    Rice production consumes about 30% of all freshwater used worldwide and 45% in Asia. Turning away from permanently flooded rice cropping systems for mitigating future water scarcity and reducing methane emissions, however, will alter a variety of ecosystem services with potential adverse effects to both the environment and agricultural production. Moreover, implementing systems that alternate between flooded and non-flooded crops increases the risk of disruptive effects. The multi-disciplinary DFG research unit ICON aims at exploring and quantifying the ecological consequences of altered water regimes (flooded vs. non-flooded), crop diversification (irrigated rice vs. aerobic rice vs. maize), and different fertilization strategies (conventional, site-specific, and zero N fertilization). ICON particularly focuses on the biogeochemical cycling of carbon and nitrogen, green-house gas (GHG) emissions, water balance, soil biotic processes and other important ecosystem services. The overarching goal is to provide the basic process understanding that is necessary for balancing the revenues and environmental impacts of high-yield rice cropping systems while maintaining their vital ecosystem services. To this aim, a large-scale field experiment has been established at the experimental farm of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI, Philippines). Ultimately, the experimental results are analyzed in the context of management scenarios by an integrated modeling of crop development (ORYZA), carbon and nitrogen cycling (MoBiLE-DNDC), and water fluxes (CMF), providing the basis for developing pathways to a conversion of rice-based systems towards higher yield potentials under minimized environmental impacts. In our presentation, we demonstrate the set-up of the controlled large-scale field experiment for simultaneous assessment of carbon and nitrogen fluxes and water budgets. We show and discuss first results for: - Quantification and assessment of the net-fluxes of CH4

  6. Water, energy, and biogeochemical budgets investigation at Panola Mountain research watershed, Stockbridge, Georgia; a research plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntington, T.G.; Hooper, R.P.; Peters, N.E.; Bullen, T.D.; Kendall, Carol

    1993-01-01

    The Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW), located in the Panola Mountain State Conservation Park near Stockbridge, Georgia has been selected as a core research watershed under the Water, Energy and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) research initiative of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Climate Change Program. This research plan describes ongoing and planned research activities at PMRW from 1984 to 1994. Since 1984, PMRW has been studied as a geochemical process research site under the U.S. Acid Precipitation Thrust Program. Research conducted under this Thrust Program focused on the estimation of dry atmospheric deposition, short-term temporal variability of streamwater chemistry, sulfate adsorption characteristics of the soils, groundwater chemistry, throughfall chemistry, and streamwater quality. The Acid Precipitation Thrust Program continues (1993) to support data collection and a water-quality laboratory. Proposed research to be supported by the WEBB program is organized in 3 interrelated categories: streamflow generation and water-quality evolution, weathering and geochemical evolution, and regulation of soil-water chemistry. Proposed research on streamflow generation and water-quality evolution will focus on subsurface water movement, its influence in streamflow generation, and the associated chemical changes of the water that take place along its flowpath. Proposed research on weathering and geochemical evolution will identify the sources of cations observed in the streamwater at Panola Mountain and quantify the changes in cation source during storms. Proposed research on regulation of soil-water chemistry will focus on the poorly understood processes that regulate soil-water and groundwater chemistry. (USGS)

  7. A Water Budget Approach to Study the Hydrologic Response of Mountain Meadow Restoration Following Conifer Removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Oosbree, G. F.; Surfleet, C. G.; Jasbinsek, J. J.

    2014-12-01

    Mountain meadows are important ecological habitats that have degraded in quality and distribution due to fire suppression and poor land use practices in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Conifer encroachment in mountain meadows has accelerated and is one of the reasons for the decline of meadow habitat. To date there are few studies which quantify the hydrologic response of meadow restoration due to vegetation or conifer removal. This study is using a before after control intervention (BACI) study design to determine the hydrologic response of restoration to a historic meadow encroached by conifers (study meadow). A water budget approach has been developed to quantify the hydrology of the control and study meadow before and after restoration. Measurements of groundwater depth and soil moisture are currently being taken on the control and study meadows. A total of 14 Odyssey water level capacitance instruments were installed to a 1.5 meter depth and 14 soil moisture instruments were installed to a 30 cm depth using a spatially balanced random sampling approach. Electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) was used to determine soil moisture and depth to groundwater across forest-meadow ecotones present on the meadows. Additionally, ERI was used to extrapolate point measurements of groundwater depth and soil moisture across the study and control areas. The weekly water budget indicates differences between the control meadow and study meadow in the first year prior to conifer removal. The ERI indicated differences in sub surface geology, soil moisture, and groundwater depth both between the control and study meadows and along the forest-meadow ecotones. ERI was demonstrated to improve the spatial extrapolation of soil moisture and groundwater point measurements.

  8. Effect of sulfate aerosol on tropospheric NOx and ozone budgets: Model simulations and TOPSE evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tie, Xuexi; Emmons, Louisa; Horowitz, Larry; Brasseur, Guy; Ridley, Brian; Atlas, Elliot; Stround, Craig; Hess, Peter; Klonecki, Andrzej; Madronich, Sasha; Talbot, Robert; Dibb, Jack

    2003-02-01

    The distributions of NOx and O3 are analyzed during TOPSE (Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox). In this study these data are compared with the calculations of a global chemical/transport model (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART)). Specifically, the effect that hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosols has on tropospheric NOx and O3 budgets is studied. The results show that without this heterogeneous reaction, the model significantly overestimates NOx concentrations at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in winter and spring in comparison to the observations during TOPSE; with this reaction, modeled NOx concentrations are close to the measured values. This comparison provides evidence that the hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosol plays an important role in controlling the tropospheric NOx and O3 budgets. The calculated reduction of NOx attributed to this reaction is 80 to 90% in winter at high latitudes over North America. Because of the reduction of NOx, O3 concentrations are also decreased. The maximum O3 reduction occurs in spring although the maximum NOx reduction occurs in winter when photochemical O3 production is relatively low. The uncertainties related to uptake coefficient and aerosol loading in the model is analyzed. The analysis indicates that the changes in NOx due to these uncertainties are much smaller than the impact of hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosol. The effect that hydrolysis of N2O5 on global NOx and O3 budgets are also assessed by the model. The results suggest that in the Northern Hemisphere, the average NOx budget decreases 50% due to this reaction in winter and 5% in summer. The average O3 budget is reduced by 8% in winter and 6% in summer. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the sulfate aerosol loading is significantly smaller than in the Northern Hemisphere. As a result, sulfate aerosol has little impact on NOx and O3 budgets of the Southern Hemisphere.

  9. Budget calculations for ozone and its precursors: Seasonal and episodic features based on model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Memmesheimer, M.; Ebel, A.; Roemer, M.

    1997-01-01

    Results from two air quality models (LOTOS, EURAD) have been used to analyse the contribution of the different terms in the continuity equation to the budget of ozone, NO(x) and PAN. Both models cover large parts of Europe and describe the processes relevant for tropospheric chemistry and dynamics.

  10. Water Balance of the Eğirdir Lake and the Influence of Budget Components, Isparta,Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayşen DAVRAZ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Water budget of lakes must be determined regarding to their sustainable usage as for all water resources. One of the major problems in the management of lakes is the estimation of water budget components. The lack of regularly measured data is the biggest problem in calculation of hydrological balance of a lake. A lake water budget is computed by measuring or estimating all of the lake’s water gains and losses and measuring the corresponding changes in the lake volume over the same time period. Eğirdir Lake is one of the most important freshwater lakes in Turkey and is the most important surface water resources in the region due to different usages. Recharge of the Eğirdir Lake is supplied from especially precipitation, surface and subsurface water inflow. The discharge components of the lake are evaporation and water intake for irrigation, drinking and energy purposes. The difference between recharge and discharge of the lake was calculated as 7.78 hm3 for 1970-2010 period. According to rainfall, evaporation and the lake water level relations, rainfall is dominantly effective on the lake water level such as direct recharge to the lake and indirect recharge with groundwater flow

  11. Hydrogeology, water resources, and water budget of the upper Rio Hondo Basin, Lincoln County, New Mexico, 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darr, Michael J.; McCoy, Kurt J.; Rattray, Gordon W.; Durall, Roger A.

    2014-01-01

    The upper Rio Hondo Basin occupies a drainage area of 585 square miles in south-central New Mexico and comprises three general hydrogeologic terranes: the higher elevation “Mountain Block,” the “Central Basin” piedmont area, and the lower elevation “Hondo Slope.” As many as 12 hydrostratigraphic units serve as aquifers locally and form a continuous aquifer on the regional scale. Streams and aquifers in the basin are closely interconnected, with numerous gaining and losing stream reaches across the study area. In general, the aquifers are characterized by low storage capacity and respond to short-term and long-term variations in recharge with marked water-level fluctuations on short (days to months) and long (decadal) time scales. Droughts and local groundwater withdrawals have caused marked water-table declines in some areas, whereas periodically heavy monsoons and snowmelt events have rapidly recharged aquifers in some areas. A regional-scale conceptual water budget was developed for the study area in order to gain a basic understanding of the magnitude of the various components of input, output, and change in storage. The primary input is watershed yield from the Mountain Block terrane, supplying about 38,200 to 42,300 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) to the basin, as estimated by comparing the residual of precipitation and evapotranspiration with local streamgage data. Streamflow from the basin averaged about 21,200 acre-ft/yr, and groundwater output left the basin at an estimated 2,300 to 5,700 acre-ft/yr. The other major output (about 13,500 acre-ft/yr) was by public water supply, private water supply, livestock, commercial and industrial uses, and the Bonito Pipeline. The residual in the water budget, the difference between the totals of the input and output terms or the potential change in storage, ranged from -2,200 acre-ft/yr to +5,300 acre-ft/yr. There is a high degree of variability in precipitation and consequently in the water supply; small

  12. BEYOND BUDGETING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edo Cvrkalj

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Traditional budgeting principles, with strictly defined business goals, have been, since 1998, slowly growing into more sophisticated and organization-adjusted alternative budgeting concepts. One of those alternative concepts is the “Beyond budgeting” model with an implemented performance effects measuring process. In order for the model to be practicable, budget planning and control has to be reoriented to the “bottom up” planning and control approach. In today’s modern business surroundings one has to take both present and future opportunities and threats into consideration, by valorizing them in a budget which would allow a company to realize a whole pallet of advantages over the traditional budgeting principles which are presented later in the article. It is essential to emphasize the importance of successfully implementing the new budgeting principles within an organization. If the implementation has been lacking and done without a higher goal in mind, it is easily possible that the process has been implemented without coordination, planning and control framework within the organization itself. Further in the article we present an overview of managerial techniques and instruments within the “Beyond budgeting” model such as balanced scorecard, rolling forecast, dashboard, KPI and other supporting instruments. Lastly we define seven steps for implementing the “Beyond budgeting” model and offer a comparison of “Beyond budgeting” model against traditional budgeting principles which lists twelve reasons why “Beyond budgeting” is better suited to modern and market-oriented organizations. Each company faces those challenges in their own characteristic way but implementing new dynamic planning models will soon become essential for surviving in the market.

  13. Effects of Changes in Meteorological Conditions on Lake Evaporation, Water Temperature, and Heat Budget in a Deep Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Yuji; Momii, Kazuro

    To reveal effects of changes in meteorological conditions on lake evaporation, water temperature, and heat budget in a deep lake, sensitivity analyses have been performed for Lake Ikeda, Kagoshima prefecture. In the study, the sensitivities of three aspects to the 10%-increased solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were estimated based on numerical calculations for 1981-2005 with the verified one-dimensional mathematical model that computes thermal transfer in the lake. The results demonstrated that the meteorological component which gives the largest evaporation-promoting effect was solar radiation and the component which brings the largest lake-heating was air temperature. When solar radiation was increased, the vapor pressure difference between lake-surface and atmosphere was increased and the atmospheric stability was decreased, which present the desirable condition for evaporation. Air temperature being higher, the lake-surface was intensively heated by increased atmospheric radiation. As for the humidity case, lake evaporation was decreased in any season due to decrease in vapor pressure difference. Although rise in water temperature was caused by decrease in latent heat, it was inhibited with cooling by sensible heat. Wind being up, water temperature was fallen at the lake-surface and risen around the 20 m depth by vertical thermal mixing effect. The mixing effect prevented from releasing heat to atmosphere, resulting in the secondary large lake-heating but smaller than air temperature case.

  14. A modelling study of the impact of cirrus clouds on the moisture budget of the upper troposphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Fueglistaler

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a modelling study of the effect of cirrus clouds on the moisture budget of the layer wherein the cloud formed. Our framework simplifies many aspects of cloud microphysics and collapses the problem of sedimentation onto a 0-dimensional box model, but retains essential feedbacks between saturation mixing ratio, particle growth, and water removal through particle sedimentation. The water budget is described by two coupled first-order differential equations for dimensionless particle number density and saturation point temperature, where the parameters defining the system (layer depth, reference temperature, amplitude and time scale of temperature perturbation and inital particle number density, which may or may not be a function of reference temperature and cooling rate are encapsulated in a single coefficient. This allows us to scale the results to a broad range of atmospheric conditions, and to test sensitivities. Results of the moisture budget calculations are presented for a range of atmospheric conditions (T: 238–205 K; p: 325–180 hPa and a range of time scales τT of the temperature perturbation that induces the cloud formation. The cirrus clouds are found to efficiently remove water for τT longer than a few hours, with longer perturbations (τT≳10 h required at lower temperatures (T≲210 K. Conversely, we find that temperature perturbations of duration order 1 h and less (a typical timescale for e.g., gravity waves do not efficiently dehydrate over most of the upper troposphere. A consequence is that (for particle densities typical of current cirrus clouds the assumption of complete dehydration to the saturation mixing ratio may yield valid predictions for upper tropospheric moisture distributions if it is based on the large scale temperature field, but this assumption is not necessarily valid if it is based on smaller scale temperature fields.

  15. Soil Organic Carbon Redistribution by Water Erosion - The Role of CO2 Emissions for the Carbon Budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, X.; Cammeraat, E.L.H.; Romeijn, P.; Kalbitz, K.

    2014-01-01

    A better process understanding of how water erosion influences the redistribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) is sorely needed to unravel the role of soil erosion for the carbon (C) budget from local to global scales. The main objective of this study was to determine SOC redistribution and the

  16. A Sediment Budget Case Study: Comparing Watershed Scale Erosion Estimates to Modeled and Empirical Sediment Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDavitt, B.; O'Connor, M.

    2003-12-01

    The Pacific Lumber Company Habitat Conservation Plan requires watershed analyses to be conducted on their property. This paper summarizes a portion of that analysis focusing on erosion and sedimentation processes and rates coupled with downstream sediment routing in the Freshwater Creek watershed in northwest California. Watershed scale erosion sources from hillslopes, roads, and channel banks were quantified using field surveys, aerial photo interpretation, and empirical modeling approaches for different elements of the study. Sediment transport rates for bedload were modeled, and sediment transport rates for suspended sediment were estimated based on size distribution of sediment inputs in relation to sizes transported in suspension. Recent short-term, high-quality estimates of suspended sediment yield that a community watershed group collected with technical assistance from the US Forest Service were used to validate the resulting sediment budget. Bedload yield data from an adjacent watershed, Jacoby Creek, provided another check on the sediment budget. The sediment budget techniques and bedload routing models used for this study generated sediment yield estimates that are in good agreement with available data. These results suggest that sediment budget techniques that require moderate levels of fieldwork can be used to provide relatively accurate technical assessments. Ongoing monitoring of sediment sources coupled with sediment routing models and reach scale field data allows for predictions to be made regarding in-channel sediment storage.

  17. Link Budget Analysis and Modeling of Short-Range UWB Channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Irahhauten, Z.; Dacuna, J.; Janssen, G.J.M.; Nikookar, H.; Yarovoy, A.G.; Ligthart, L.P.

    2008-01-01

    Ultrawideband (UWB) technology is an attractive alternative for short-range applications, e.g., wireless personal area networks. In these applications, transmit and receive antennas are very close to each other and the far-field condition assumed in most of the link budget models may not be

  18. A conceptual framework for budget allocation in the RIVM Chronic Disease Model - A case study of Diabetes Mellitus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogenveen RT; Feenstra TL; van Baal PHM; Baan CA; PZO

    2005-01-01

    Dit rapport beschrijft de elementen van een zogeheten 'budget allocatie model'. Dit model is bedoeld ter ondersteuning van beleidsmakers bij keuzes over de inzet van budget voor primaire preventie en/of preventie in de zorg bij chronische aandoeningen. Als concrete toepassing is gekozen

  19. Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire R.; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffrey B.; Burger, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The East-Central Florida Transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into ET, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams

  20. Contrasting nitrogen and phosphorus budgets in urban watersheds and implications for managing urban water pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbie, Sarah E; Finlay, Jacques C; Janke, Benjamin D; Nidzgorski, Daniel A; Millet, Dylan B; Baker, Lawrence A

    2017-04-18

    Managing excess nutrients remains a major obstacle to improving ecosystem service benefits of urban waters. To inform more ecologically based landscape nutrient management, we compared watershed inputs, outputs, and retention for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in seven subwatersheds of the Mississippi River in St. Paul, Minnesota. Lawn fertilizer and pet waste dominated N and P inputs, respectively, underscoring the importance of household actions in influencing urban watershed nutrient budgets. Watersheds retained only 22% of net P inputs versus 80% of net N inputs (watershed area-weighted averages, where net inputs equal inputs minus biomass removal) despite relatively low P inputs. In contrast to many nonurban watersheds that exhibit high P retention, these urban watersheds have high street density that enhanced transport of P-rich materials from landscapes to stormwater. High P exports in storm drainage networks and yard waste resulted in net P losses in some watersheds. Comparisons of the N/P stoichiometry of net inputs versus storm drain exports implicated denitrification or leaching to groundwater as a likely fate for retained N. Thus, these urban watersheds exported high quantities of N and P, but via contrasting pathways: P was exported primarily via stormwater runoff, contributing to surface water degradation, whereas N losses additionally contribute to groundwater pollution. Consequently, N management and P management require different strategies, with N management focusing on reducing watershed inputs and P management also focusing on reducing P movement from vegetated landscapes to streets and storm drains.

  1. Contrasting nitrogen and phosphorus budgets in urban watersheds and implications for managing urban water pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janke, Benjamin D.; Nidzgorski, Daniel A.; Millet, Dylan B.; Baker, Lawrence A.

    2017-01-01

    Managing excess nutrients remains a major obstacle to improving ecosystem service benefits of urban waters. To inform more ecologically based landscape nutrient management, we compared watershed inputs, outputs, and retention for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in seven subwatersheds of the Mississippi River in St. Paul, Minnesota. Lawn fertilizer and pet waste dominated N and P inputs, respectively, underscoring the importance of household actions in influencing urban watershed nutrient budgets. Watersheds retained only 22% of net P inputs versus 80% of net N inputs (watershed area-weighted averages, where net inputs equal inputs minus biomass removal) despite relatively low P inputs. In contrast to many nonurban watersheds that exhibit high P retention, these urban watersheds have high street density that enhanced transport of P-rich materials from landscapes to stormwater. High P exports in storm drainage networks and yard waste resulted in net P losses in some watersheds. Comparisons of the N/P stoichiometry of net inputs versus storm drain exports implicated denitrification or leaching to groundwater as a likely fate for retained N. Thus, these urban watersheds exported high quantities of N and P, but via contrasting pathways: P was exported primarily via stormwater runoff, contributing to surface water degradation, whereas N losses additionally contribute to groundwater pollution. Consequently, N management and P management require different strategies, with N management focusing on reducing watershed inputs and P management also focusing on reducing P movement from vegetated landscapes to streets and storm drains. PMID:28373560

  2. Fuel for cyclones: The water vapor budget of a hurricane as dependent on its movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarieva, Anastassia M.; Gorshkov, Victor G.; Nefiodov, Andrei V.; Chikunov, Alexander V.; Sheil, Douglas; Nobre, Antonio Donato; Li, Bai-Lian

    2017-09-01

    Despite the dangers associated with tropical cyclones and their rainfall, the origin of the moisture in these storms, which include destructive hurricanes and typhoons, remains surprisingly uncertain. Existing studies have focused on the region 40-400 km from a cyclone's center. It is known that the rainfall within this area cannot be explained by local processes alone but requires imported moisture. Nonetheless, the dynamics of this imported moisture appears unknown. Here, considering a region up to three thousand kilometers from cyclone center, we analyze precipitation, atmospheric moisture and movement velocities for severe tropical cyclones - North Atlantic hurricanes. Our findings indicate that even over such large areas a hurricane's rainfall cannot be accounted for by concurrent evaporation. We propose instead that a hurricane consumes pre-existing atmospheric water vapor as it moves. The propagation velocity of the cyclone, i.e. the difference between its movement velocity and the mean velocity of the surrounding air (steering flow), determines the water vapor budget. Water vapor available to the hurricane through its movement makes the hurricane self-sufficient at about 700 km from the hurricane center obviating the need to concentrate moisture from greater distances. Such hurricanes leave a dry wake, whereby rainfall is suppressed by up to 40% compared to the local long-term mean. The inner radius of this dry footprint approximately coincides with the hurricane's radius of water self-sufficiency. We discuss how Carnot efficiency considerations do not constrain the power of such open systems. Our findings emphasize the incompletely understood role and importance of atmospheric moisture stocks and dynamics in the behavior of severe tropical cyclones.

  3. Using a unit cost model to predict the impact of budget cuts on logistics products and services

    OpenAIRE

    Van Haasteren, Cleve J.

    1992-01-01

    Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited The Director of the Trident Integrated Logistics Support Division at the Naval Sea Systems Command manages a complex and dynamic budget that supports the provision of logistics products and services to the Trident submarine fleet. This thesis focuses on analyzing the Logistics Division budget and developing a model where the impact of a budget cut can be predicted by employing marginal cost. The thesis also explores ...

  4. WATER DRAINAGE MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.B. Case

    2000-05-30

    The drainage of water from the emplacement drift is essential for the performance of the EBS. The unsaturated flow properties of the surrounding rock matrix and fractures determine how well the water will be naturally drained. To enhance natural drainage, it may be necessary to introduce engineered drainage features (e.g. drilled holes in the drifts), that will ensure communication of the flow into the fracture system. The purpose of the Water Drainage Model is to quantify and evaluate the capability of the drift to remove water naturally, using the selected conceptual repository design as a basis (CRWMS M&O, 1999d). The analysis will provide input to the Water Distribution and Removal Model of the EBS. The model is intended to be used to provide postclosure analysis of temperatures and drainage from the EBS. It has been determined that drainage from the EBS is a factor important to the postclosure safety case.

  5. Demonstration of the gypsy moth energy budget microclimate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. E. Anderson; D. R. Miller; W. E. Wallner

    1991-01-01

    The use of a "User friendly" version of "GMMICRO" model to quantify the local environment and resulting core temperature of GM larvae under different conditions of canopy defoliation, different forest sites, and different weather conditions was demonstrated.

  6. Hydrologic characterization for Spring Creek and hydrologic budget and model scenarios for Sheridan Lake, South Dakota, 1962-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Norton, Parker A.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks to characterize hydrologic information relevant to management of water resources associated with Sheridan Lake, which is formed by a dam on Spring Creek. This effort consisted primarily of characterization of hydrologic data for a base period of 1962 through 2006, development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake for this timeframe, and development of an associated model for simulation of storage deficits and drawdown in Sheridan Lake for hypothetical release scenarios from the lake. Historically, the dam has been operated primarily as a 'pass-through' system, in which unregulated outflows pass over the spillway; however, the dam recently was retrofitted with an improved control valve system that would allow controlled releases of about 7 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) or less from a fixed depth of about 60 feet (ft). Development of a hydrologic budget for Sheridan Lake involved compilation, estimation, and characterization of data sets for streamflow, precipitation, and evaporation. The most critical data need was for extrapolation of available short-term streamflow records for Spring Creek to be used as the long-term inflow to Sheridan Lake. Available short-term records for water years (WY) 1991-2004 for a gaging station upstream from Sheridan Lake were extrapolated to WY 1962-2006 on the basis of correlations with streamflow records for a downstream station and for stations located along two adjacent streams. Comparisons of data for the two streamflow-gaging stations along Spring Creek indicated that tributary inflow is approximately proportional to the intervening drainage area, which was used as a means of estimating tributary inflow for the hydrologic budget. Analysis of evaporation data shows that sustained daily rates may exceed maximum monthly rates by a factor of about two. A long-term (1962-2006) hydrologic budget was developed for computation of reservoir outflow from

  7. The effects of atmospheric chemistry on radiation budget in the Community Earth Systems Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Y.; Czader, B.; Diao, L.; Rodriguez, J.; Jeong, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Community Earth Systems Model (CESM)-Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) simulations were performed to study the impact of atmospheric chemistry on the radiation budget over the surface within a weather prediction time scale. The secondary goal is to get a simplified and optimized chemistry module for the short time period. Three different chemistry modules were utilized to represent tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, which differ in how their reactions and species are represented: (1) simplified tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (approximately 30 species), (2) simplified tropospheric chemistry and comprehensive stratospheric chemistry from the Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 3 (MOZART-3, approximately 60 species), and (3) comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (MOZART-4, approximately 120 species). Our results indicate the different details in chemistry treatment from these model components affect the surface temperature and impact the radiation budget.

  8. Use of GOES, SSM/I, TRMM Satellite Measurements Estimating Water Budget Variations in Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean Sea Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.

    2004-01-01

    This study presents results from a multi-satellite/multi-sensor retrieval system designed to obtain the atmospheric water budget over the open ocean. A combination of 3ourly-sampled monthly datasets derived from the GOES-8 5-channel Imager, the TRMM TMI radiometer, and the DMSP 7-channel passive microwave radiometers (SSM/I) have been acquired for the combined Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea basin. Whereas the methodology has been tested over this basin, the retrieval system is designed for portability to any open-ocean region. Algorithm modules using the different datasets to retrieve individual geophysical parameters needed in the water budget equation are designed in a manner that takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GOES-8 measurements, as well as the physical relationships inherent to the TRMM and SSM/I passive microwave measurements in conjunction with water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rainfall. The methodology consists of retrieving the precipitation, surface evaporation, and vapor-cloud water storage terms in the atmospheric water balance equation from satellite techniques, with the water vapor advection term being obtained as the residue needed for balance. Thus, the intent is to develop a purely satellite-based method for obtaining the full set of terms in the atmospheric water budget equation without requiring in situ sounding information on the wind profile. The algorithm is validated by cross-checking all the algorithm components through multiple- algorithm retrieval intercomparisons. A further check on the validation is obtained by directly comparing water vapor transports into the targeted basin diagnosed from the satellite algorithms to those obtained observationally from a network of land-based upper air stations that nearly uniformly surround the basin, although it is fair to say that these checks are more effective m identifying problems in estimating vapor transports from a leaky operational radiosonde network than in verifying

  9. Monthly-Diurnal Water Budget Variability Over Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea Basin from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, E. A.; Santos, P.

    2006-01-01

    This study presents results from a multi-satellite/multi-sensor retrieval system design d to obtain the atmospheric water budget over the open ocean. A combination of hourly-sampled monthly datasets derived from the GOES-8 5-channel Imager, the TRMM TMI radiometer, and the DMSP 7-channel passive microwave radiometers (SSM/I) have been acquired for the combined Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea basin. Whereas the methodology has been tested over this basin, the retrieval system is designed for portability to any open-ocean region. Algorithm modules using the different datasets to retrieve individual geophysical parameters needed in the water budget equation are designed in a manner that takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GOES-8 measurements, as well as the physical relationships inherent to the TRMM and SSM/I passive microwave measurements in conjunction with water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rainfall. The methodology consists of retrieving the precipitation, surface evaporation, and vapor-cloud water storage terms in the atmospheric water balance equation from satellite techniques, with the water vapor advection term being obtained as the residue needed for balance. Thus, the intent is to develop a purely satellite-based method for obtaining the full set of terms in the atmospheric water budget equation without requiring in situ sounding information on the wind profile. The algorithm is validated by cross-checking all the algorithm components through multiple-algorithm retrieval intercomparisons. A further check on the validation is obtained by directly comparing water vapor transports into the targeted basin diagnosed from the satellite algorithms to those obtained observationally from a network of land-based upper air stations that nearly uniformly surround the basin, although it is fair to say that these checks are more effective in identifying problems in estimating vapor transports from a "leaky" operational radiosonde network than in

  10. Participative Budgeting as a Communication Process: A Model and Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-01-01

    If two persona share neither the same comparison objects (that is , are not coor it-ated) nor the attributes concerning these o b j e c ts , other...f f e c t s of this model operatio n. B’— inccrp crat inc toe su~ gestions of the prior research and basing the mode l on well established bud get

  11. An inverse method to derive surface fluxes from the closure of oceanic heat and water budgets: Application to the north-western Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caniaux, G.; Prieur, L.; Giordani, H.; Redelsperger, J.-L.

    2017-04-01

    The large amount of data collected during DeWEX, MOOSE, and HyMeX campaigns in the north-western Mediterranean in 2012-2013 allowed to implement an inverse method to solve the difficult problem of heat and water budget closure. The inverse method is based on the simulation of the observed heat and water budgets, strongly constrained by observations collected during the campaigns and on the deduction of adjusted surface fluxes. The inverse method uses a genetic algorithm that generates 50,000 simulations of a single-column model and optimizes some adjustable coefficients introduced in the surface fluxes. Finally, the single-column model forced by the adjusted fluxes during 1 year and over a test area of about 300 × 300 km2 simulates the daily mean satellite bulk SST with an accuracy/uncertainty of 0.011 ± 0.072°C, as well as daily mean SSS and residual buoyancy series deduced from wintertime analyses with an accuracy of 0.011 ± 0.008 and 0.03 ± 0.012 m2 s-2, respectively. The adjusted fluxes close the annual heat and rescaled water budgets by less than 5 W m-2. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such a flux data set is produced. It can thus be considered as a reference for the north-western Mediterranean and be used for estimating other flux data sets, for forcing regional models and for process studies. Compared with the adjusted fluxes, some operational numerical weather prediction models (ARPEGE, NCEP, ERA-INTERIM, ECMWF, and AROME), often used to force oceanic models, were evaluated: they are unable to retrieve the mean annual patterns and values.

  12. Development of Advanced Eco-hydrologic and Biogeochemical Coupling Model to Re-evaluate Greenhouse Gas Budget of Biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, T.; Maksyutov, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    Inland waters including rivers, lakes, and groundwater are suggested to act as a transport pathway for water and dissolved substances, and play some role in continental biogeochemical cycling (Cole et al., 2007; Battin et al., 2009). The authors have developed process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model (2014, 2015, etc.), which includes feedback between hydrologic-geomorphic-ecological processes. In this study, NICE was further developed to couple with various biogeochemical cycle models in biosphere, those for water quality in aquatic ecosystems, and those for carbon weathering. The NICE-biogeochemical coupling model incorporates connectivity of the biogeochemical cycle accompanied by hydrologic cycle between surface water and groundwater, hillslopes and river networks, and other intermediate regions. The model also includes reaction between inorganic and organic carbons, and its relation to nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial-aquatic continuum. The coupled model showed to improve the accuracy of inundation stress mechanism such as photosynthesis and primary production, which attributes to improvement of CH4 flux in wetland sensitive to fluctuations of shallow groundwater. The model also simulated CO2 evasion from inland water in global scale, and was relatively in good agreement in empirical relation (Aufdenkampe et al., 2011) which has relatively an uncertainty in the calculated flux because of pCO2 data missing in some region and effect of small tributaries, etc. Further, the model evaluated how the expected CO2 evasion might change as inland waters become polluted with nutrients and eutrophication increases from agriculture and urban areas (Pacheco et al., 2013). This advanced eco-hydrologic and biogeochemical coupling model would play important role to re-evaluate greenhouse gas budget of the biosphere, and to bridge gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches (Battin et al., 2009; Regnier et al., 2013).

  13. Stream Water Quality Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — QUAL2K (or Q2K) is a river and stream water quality model that is intended to represent a modernized version of the QUAL2E (or Q2E) model (Brown and Barnwell 1987).

  14. Selected approaches to estimate water-budget components of the High Plains, 1940 through 1949 and 2000 through 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, Jennifer S.; Qi, Sharon L.; Ryter, Derek W.; Falk, Sarah E.; Houston, Natalie A.; Peterson, Steven M.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Christenson, Scott C.

    2011-01-01

    The High Plains aquifer, underlying almost 112 million acres in the central United States, is one of the largest aquifers in the Nation. It is the primary water supply for drinking water, irrigation, animal production, and industry in the region. Expansion of irrigated agriculture throughout the past 60 years has helped make the High Plains one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Nation. Extensive withdrawals of groundwater for irrigation have caused water-level declines in many parts of the aquifer and increased concerns about the long-term sustainability of the aquifer. Quantification of water-budget components is a prerequisite for effective water-resources management. Components analyzed as part of this study were precipitation, evapotranspiration, recharge, surface runoff, groundwater discharge to streams, groundwater fluxes to and from adjacent geologic units, irrigation, and groundwater in storage. These components were assessed for 1940 through 1949 (representing conditions prior to substantial groundwater development and referred to as "pregroundwater development" throughout this report) and 2000 through 2009. Because no single method can perfectly quantify the magnitude of any part of a water budget at a regional scale, results from several methods and previously published work were compiled and compared for this study when feasible. Results varied among the several methods applied, as indicated by the range of average annual volumes given for each component listed in the following paragraphs. Precipitation was derived from three sources: the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, data developed using Next Generation Weather Radar and measured precipitation from weather stations by the Office of Hydrologic Development at the National Weather Service for the Sacramento-Soil Moisture Accounting model, and precipitation measured at weather stations and spatially distributed using an inverse-distance-weighted interpolation

  15. Astrochemical models of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aikawa, Yuri

    We will review the chemical reaction network models of water and its D/H ratio coupled with the dynamics of star formation. Infrared observations show that water ice is abundant even in molecular clouds with relatively low visual extinction (~ 3 mag), which indicates that water ice is formed in early stage of molecular clouds. We thus start from a possible formation site of molecular clouds, i.e. the converging flow of diffuse gas. Then we proceed to dense cloud cores and its gravitational collapse, during which a significant deuterium enrichment occurs. The gas and ice accrete onto the circumstellar disks, which evolve to protoplanetary disks in T Tauri phase. If the disks are turbulent, water could be photodissociated in the disk surface and re-formed in deeper layers. The cycle continues until the dust grains with ice mantle are decoupled from the turbulence and settle to the midplane. The water D/H ratio could thus vary within the disk.

  16. Reliability and quality of water isotope data collected with a low-budget rain collector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prechsl, Ulrich E; Gilgen, Anna K; Kahmen, Ansgar; Buchmann, Nina

    2014-04-30

    Low-budget rain collectors for water isotope analysis, such as the 'ball-in-funnel type collector' (BiFC), are widely used in studies on stable water isotopes of rain. To date, however, an experimental quality assessment of such devices in relation to climatic factors does not exist. We used Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometry (CRDS) to quantify the effects of evaporation on the δ(18)O values of reference water under controlled conditions as a function of the elapsed time between rainfall and collection for isotope analysis, the sample volume and the relative humidity (RH: 31% and 67%; 25 °C). The climate chamber conditions were chosen to reflect the warm and dry end of field conditions that favor evaporative enrichment (EE). We also tested the performance of the BiFC in the field, and compared our δ(2)H/δ(18)O data obtained by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) with those from the Swiss National Network for the Observation of Isotopes in the Water Cycle (ISOT). The EE increased with time, with a 1‰ increase in the δ(18)O values after 10 days (RH: 25%; 25 °C; 35 mL (corresponding to a 5 mm rain event); p <0.001). The sample volume strongly affected the EE (max. value +1.5‰ for 7 mL samples (i.e., 1 mm rain events) after 72 h at 31% and 67% RH; p <0.001), whereas the relative humidity had no significant effect. Using the BiFC in the field, we obtained very tight relationships of the δ(2)H/δ(18)O values (r(2) ≥ 0.95) for three sites along an elevational gradient, not significantly different from that of the next ISOT station. Since the chosen experimental conditions were extreme compared with the field conditions, it was concluded that the BiFC is a highly reliable and inexpensive collector of rainwater for isotope analysis. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Basin-Scale Assessment of the Land Surface Water Budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Youlong; Cosgrove, Brian A.; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ek, Michael B.; Brewer, Michael; Mocko, David; Kumar, Sujay V.; Wei, Helin; Meng, Jesse; hide

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the components of the land surface water budget in the four land surface models (Noah, SAC-Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, (VIC) Variable Infiltration Capacity Model, and Mosaic) applied in the newly implemented National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational and research versions of the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2). This work focuses on monthly and annual components of the water budget over 12 National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Monthly gridded FLUX Network (FLUXNET) evapotranspiration (ET) from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) of Germany, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) total runoff (Q), changes in total water storage (dS/dt, derived as a residual by utilizing MPI ET and USGS Q in the water balance equation), and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observed total water storage anomaly (TWSA) and change (TWSC) are used as reference data sets. Compared to these ET and Q benchmarks, Mosaic and SAC (Noah and VIC) in the operational NLDAS-2 overestimate (underestimate) mean annual reference ET and underestimate (overestimate) mean annual reference Q. The multimodel ensemble mean (MME) is closer to the mean annual reference ET and Q. An anomaly correlation (AC) analysis shows good AC values for simulated monthly mean Q and dS/dt but significantly smaller AC values for simulated ET. Upgraded versions of the models utilized in the research side of NLDAS-2 yield largely improved performance in the simulation of these mean annual and monthly water component diagnostics. These results demonstrate that the three intertwined efforts of improving (1) the scientific understanding of parameterization of land surface processes, (2) the spatial and temporal extent of systematic validation of land surface processes, and (3) the engineering-oriented aspects such as parameter calibration and optimization are key to substantially improving product

  18. The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint

  19. Geohydrology, water quality, and water budgets of Golden Gate Park and the Lake Merced area in the western part of San Francisco, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, E.B.; Hamlin, S.N.; McCann, L.H.

    1990-01-01

    The groundwater resources in the western part of the San Francisco, groundwater budgets for Golden Gate Park and the Lake Merced area, and a surface-water budget for Lake Merced are described. A continuous groundwater basin underlies a 39-sq-mi coastal strip in the San Francisco Peninsula south of the city. Basin fill consists largely of sand and silt. An extensive subsurface clay layer is present near Lake Merced. Recharge is principally from rainfall and irrigation-return flow, with lesser amounts from leaking water and sewer pipes, which were identified in part by stable-isotope and major ion analyses. In Golden Gate Park, about 1, 070 acre-ft/yr of groundwater flows to the ocean. Water levels are not declining, and pumpage could be safely increased. However, nitrate concentrations in excess of Federal drinking-water standards in water from many wells may limit potential uses of groundwater. Groundwater in the Lake Merced area is in a state of overdraft, as indicated by long- term declines in the level of Lake Merced and by groundwater levels persistently below sea level in deep wells. Seawater intrusion has not been detected, however. A surface-water budget for Lake Merced indicates that the largest inflow is from shallow groundwater and the largest outflow is loss by evaporation. (USGS)

  20. Assessment of the discharge regime and water budget of Belo Vrelo (source of the Tolišnica River, central Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Čokorilo-Ilić Marina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A sufficiently long spring discharge regime monitoring data set allows for a large number of analyses, to better understand the process of transformation of precipitation into a discharge hydrograph. It is also possible to determine dynamic groundwater volumes in a karst spring catchment area, the water budget equation parameters and the like. It should be noted that a sufficiently long data set is deemed to be a continuous spring discharge time series of more than 30 years. Such time series are rare in Serbia. They are generally much shorter (less than 15 years, and the respective catchment areas therefore fall into the “ungauged” category. In order to extend existing karst spring discharge time series, we developed a model whose outputs, apart from mean monthly spring discharges, include daily real evapotranspiration rates, catchment size and dynamic volume variation during the analytical period. So far the model has solely been used to assess the discharge regime and water budget of karst springs. The present paper aims to demonstrate that the model also yields good results in the case of springs that drain aquifers developed in marbles. Belo Vrelo (“White Spring”, source of the Tolišnica River, which drains marbles and marbleized limestones and dolomites of Čemerno Mountain, was selected for the present case study. [OI-176022

  1. Mean annual water-budget components for the Island of Oahu, Hawaii, for drought conditions, 1998-2002 rainfall and 2010 land cover

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The shapefile associated with this metadata file represents the spatial distribution of mean annual water-budget components, in inches, for the Island of Oahu,...

  2. Average Estimates of Water-Budget Components Based on Hydrograph Separation and PRISM Precipitation for Gaged Basins in the Appalachian Plateaus Region, 1900-2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Interior — As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Program study of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, estimates of annual water-budget components were...

  3. Mean annual water-budget components for the Island of Oahu, Hawaii, for average climate conditions, 1978-2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The shapefile associated with this metadata file represents the spatial distribution of mean annual water-budget components, in inches, for the Island of Oahu,...

  4. Reconciliation Model of Transparency Value and Bureaucracy Secretion in Management of Local Government Budget

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Putu Yoga Bumi Pradana

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to present a reconciliation model of bureaucratic principles (Secretion and democracy (Transparency through the mapping of public information about managing a local government budget which is accessible to the public and which ones are excluded (secret based on bureaucracy and public perceptions. This study uses a mixed method with sequential exploratory design and data collection research procedures using surveys, depth interviews, and documents. The validation data use source of triangulation techniques. The subjects of this study was divided into 2 (two information assembling that is government bureaucracy and public Kupang determined by purposive. The results of this research showed that Kupang Goverment bureaucracy has 22 types of information perception (33,85% in category information which is open and 42 types of information (64,62% in category information that are closed while the public perceives 29 types of information (44,62% in category information which is open and 26 types of information (40% in the category of information that are closed. Therefore, to achieve the main of reconciliation to end of conflict between bureaucracy and public, later on the amount of information is open budget of management that are 32 types of information (49,2% and the amount of information that is enclosed which includes 33 types of information (50,8 % of the 65 types of management budget information by egulation No. 13 of 2006 on local Financial Management.

  5. Evaluation of the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Global Water and Energy Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, F. R.; Chen, J.

    2010-01-01

    The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses has completed 27 years of data) soon to be caught up to present. Here) we present an evaluation of those years currently available) including comparisons with the existing long reanalyses (ERA40) JRA25 and NCEP I and II) as well as with global data sets for the water and energy cycle. Time series shows that the MERRA budgets can change with some of the variations in observing systems, but that the magnitude of energy imbalance in the system is improved with more observations. We will present all terms of the budgets in MERRA including the time rates of change and analysis increments (tendency due to the analysis of observations).

  6. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the global land surface water budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goteti, G.; Sheffield, J.; Sridhar, V.; Adams, J.; Wood, E.; Lettenmaier, D.

    2003-04-01

    Adequate water resources planning is hampered by a lack of information on the variability of the hydrological cycle. Determining how the components of the land surface water balance vary over seasonal and annual scales is critical in understanding how water resource management can address periods of drought or excess. The potential effects of climate change, and the impacts on climate variability can hopefully be addressed through global-scale modeling studies, given the lack of direct, long-term global-scale observations. A global, multi-decade, sub-daily, 1.0-degree dataset of the water and energy balance has been constructed using simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. This dataset provides long-term, globally consistent and validated land surface water and energy fluxes and states at a high temporal and spatial resolution. The simulation was forced with a meteorological dataset constructed from a combination of existing global datasets with corrections made for wind-induced gauge undercatch of precipitation and underestimation of precipitation in mountainous regions. Using this dataset, we analyze the seasonal and inter-annual variability in the major components of the land surface water balance including precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and changes in soil and snow storage. Where observations are available, we evaluate the magnitude of the simulated variability in these components, including comparison against observed variability in the runoff ratios for a number of major river basins. We also compare with control simulations from two climate models: the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ECHAM model. Spatial variability in the response of the land surface is forced by the spatial variability in climate and the distribution of soil and vegetation type. The analysis shows that there exist large spatial differences in the storage and flux of water across the globe. Results

  7. The impact of water management practices and associated methane emissions on subtropical pasture greenhouse gas budgets and ecosystem service payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, S.; Groffman, P. M.; Boughton, E.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; DeLucia, E. H.; Bernacchi, C.; Sparks, J. P.

    2016-12-01

    Pastures are an extensive land cover type, however patterns in pasture greenhouse gas (GHG) exchange vary widely depending on climate and land management. Understanding this variation is important, as pastures may be a net GHG source or sink depending on these factors. We quantified carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from subtropical pastures in south Florida for three years using eddy covariance, and estimated annual budgets of CO2, CH4, and GHG equivalent emissions. We also explored the influence of water retention practices on pasture GHG budgets by combining data from a multi-year pasture water retention experiment with CH4 flux data from our eddy covariance tower to 1) estimate the influence of water retention on surface soil flooding, and 2) estimate the influence of extended surface soil flooding on CH4 emissions. These findings were then used to assess the impact of CH4 emissions on stakeholder payments for water retention services in a carbon market framework. The pastures were net CO2 sinks sequestering up to 163 ± 54 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1, but were also strong CH4 sources emitting up to 23.5 ± 2.1 g CH4-C m-2 yr-1. Accounting for the global warming potential of CH4, the pastures were strong GHG sources emitting up to 584 ± 78 g CO2 eq. m-2 yr-1. Our analysis suggests CH4 emissions due to increased flooding from water management practices is a small component of the pasture GHG budget, and water retention likely contributes 2-11% of pasture GHG emissions. These emissions could reduce water retention payments by up to 12% if stakeholders were required to pay for current GHG emissions in a carbon market. It would require at least 93.7 kg CH4-C emissions per acre-foot water storage for carbon market costs to exceed water retention payments, and this scenario is highly unlikely as we estimate current practices are responsible for 11.3 ± 7.2 kg CH4-C emissions per acre-foot of water storage. Our results demonstrate that water retention practices

  8. Modelling the carbon budget of intensive forest monitoring sites in Germany using the simulation model BIOME-BGC

    OpenAIRE

    Jochheim, H.; Puhlmann, M.; Beese, F.; Berthold, D.; Einert, P.; Kallweit, R.; Konopatzky, A.; Meesenburg, H.; Meiwes, K.-J.; Raspe, S.; Schulte-Bisping, H.; Schulz, C.

    2008-01-01

    It is shown that by calibrating the simulation model BIOME-BGC with mandatory and optional Level II data, within the ICP Forest programme, a well-founded calculation of the carbon budget of forest stands is achievable and, based on succeeded calibration, the modified BIOME-BGC model is a useful tool to assess the effect of climate change on forest ecosystems. peerReviewed

  9. System of Budget Planning, Programming, Development and Execution and the Defence Resources Management Model (DRMM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davor Čutić

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The system of budget planning, programming, development and execution of the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Croatia (henceforth: the Croatian acronym SPPIIP is the basic system for the strategic management of defence resources through which an effective and rational distribution of available resources is conducted, based on the goals of national security of the Republic of Croatia. This system sets the principles of transparency and democratic management of defence resources while respecting the specificities of the defence system. The SPPIIP allows for decision making based on complete information about alternatives and the choice of the most economical and most efficient way to reach the goal. It unites the strategic plan, program and budget. It consists of four continuous, independent and interconnected phases: planning, programming, development and the execution of the budget. The processes of the phases are dynamic and cyclic. In addition to the SPPIIP, the Defence Resources Management Model (DRMM, Croatian acronym: MURO has also been developed. This is an analytic tool which serves as a decision support system in the SPPIIP. The DRMM is a complex computer model showing graph and tabular overviews in a multi-year period. The model examines three areas: the strength of the forces, expenses and defence programs. The purpose of the model is cost and strength analysis and the analysis of compromise and feasibility, i.e. how sensitive the programs are to fiscal movements in the sphere of the MoD budget in the course of a multiyear cycle, until a certain project ends. The analysis results are an easily understandable basis for decision making. The SPPIIP and the DRMM are mutually independent systems, but they complement each other well. The SPPIIP uses the DRMM in designing and resource allocation based on the goals set. The quality of the DRMM depends on the amount and quality of data in its database. The DRMM can be used as a basis for

  10. Lotic Water Hydrodynamic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judi, David Ryan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Tasseff, Byron Alexander [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-01-23

    Water-related natural disasters, for example, floods and droughts, are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards, both socially and economically. Many of these floods are a result of excess rainfall collecting in streams and rivers, and subsequently overtopping banks and flowing overland into urban environments. Floods can cause physical damage to critical infrastructure and present health risks through the spread of waterborne diseases. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed Lotic, a state-of-the-art surface water hydrodynamic model, to simulate propagation of flood waves originating from a variety of events. Lotic is a two-dimensional (2D) flood model that has been used primarily for simulations in which overland water flows are characterized by movement in two dimensions, such as flood waves expected from rainfall-runoff events, storm surge, and tsunamis. In 2013, LANL developers enhanced Lotic through several development efforts. These developments included enhancements to the 2D simulation engine, including numerical formulation, computational efficiency developments, and visualization. Stakeholders can use simulation results to estimate infrastructure damage and cascading consequences within other sets of infrastructure, as well as to inform the development of flood mitigation strategies.

  11. The Influence of Landuse/Landcover Change on the Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Band, L.; Shin, D.

    2008-05-01

    There have been periodic reports of severe water shortage in North Carolina; the most recent droughts were in 2002 and 2007 (continuing). It is obvious that both climate and landuse/landcover (LULC) affect on water sources over a long period of time. There has been an increasing precipitation and no significant or a small decrease in annual mean temperature in southeastern part of the United States since early 1900. We confirmed these trends with weather data analysis of our research area, northern central part of North Carolina since the early 1900's. In a systems perspective, increasing input, i.e. precipitation, will induce output increment, i.e. stream flow, if internal watershed system conditions remain the same. However, there has been no significant sign of increasing stream flow since the 1920's. Therefore, we hypothesized that transformation of the watershed condition over the last century, in this case LULC conversion from agricultural to forest areas and population increment, might be the main causes of offsetting the increase precipitation in terms of water yield. In order to test our hypothesis, we chose the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating water yield change within LULC change area and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method for calibrating and representing uncertainty in the model predictions. The scenario for long term simulation from early 1920 to current time was applied with behavioral parameter sets for current LULC condition. This scenario supposes that the LULC of 1930's were the same as current condition, i.e. forest, instead of agricultural area. Then, the observed streamflow data from the agricultural area and simulated data (assuming current LULC conditions) were used to investigate the existences of a water yield difference between these observed and simulated dataset. To evaluate the watershed model performance, SWAT was also applied to a control watershed from the late 1950's to current time

  12. A Budget Impact Model for Paclitaxel-eluting Stent in Femoropopliteal Disease in France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Cock, Erwin, E-mail: erwin.decock@unitedbiosource.com [United BioSource Corporation, Peri- and Post-Approval Services (Spain); Sapoval, Marc, E-mail: Marc.sapoval2@egp.aphp.fr [Hopital Europeen Georges Pompidou, Universite Rene Descartes, Department of Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiology (France); Julia, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.julia@egp.aphp.fr [Hopital Europeen Georges Pompidou, Universite Rene Descartes, Cardiovascular Surgery Department (France); Lissovoy, Greg de, E-mail: gdelisso@jhsph.edu [Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Health Policy and Management (United States); Lopes, Sandra, E-mail: Sandra.Lopes@CookMedical.com [Cook Medical, Health Economics and Reimbursement (Denmark)

    2013-04-15

    The Zilver PTX drug-eluting stent (Cook Ireland Ltd., Limerick, Ireland) represents an advance in endovascular treatments for atherosclerotic superficial femoral artery (SFA) disease. Clinical data demonstrate improved clinical outcomes compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). This analysis assessed the likely impact on the French public health care budget of introducing reimbursement for the Zilver PTX stent. A model was developed in Microsoft Excel to estimate the impact of a progressive transition from BMS to Zilver PTX over a 5-year horizon. The number of patients undergoing SFA stenting was estimated on the basis of hospital episode data. The analysis from the payer perspective used French reimbursement tariffs. Target lesion revascularization (TLR) after primary stent placement was the primary outcome. TLR rates were based on 2-year data from the Zilver PTX single-arm study (6 and 9 %) and BMS rates reported in the literature (average 16 and 22 %) and extrapolated to 5 years. Net budget impact was expressed as the difference in total costs (primary stenting and reinterventions) for a scenario where BMS is progressively replaced by Zilver PTX compared to a scenario of BMS only. The model estimated a net cumulative 5-year budget reduction of Euro-Sign 6,807,202 for a projected population of 82,316 patients (21,361 receiving Zilver PTX). Base case results were confirmed in sensitivity analyses. Adoption of Zilver PTX could lead to important savings for the French public health care payer. Despite higher initial reimbursement for the Zilver PTX stent, fewer expected SFA reinterventions after the primary stenting procedure result in net savings.

  13. Effects of water-soluble oil fractions on metabolism, growth, and carbon budget of the shrimp Crangon crangon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, R.R.C.

    1978-01-01

    Juvenile shrimp, Crangon crangon L., were maintained in water-soluble crude oil fractions at 10, 15 and 20/sup 0/C. During chronic exposure to oil fractions, a reduction in respiration and growth rate occurred which was related to strength of the extract. Mortality increased with strength of oil fraction and was highest at 20/sup 0/C. Calculation of carbon budgets indicated that the extract reduced net carbon turnover at each temperature. Physiological consequences resulting from exposure to the oil fractions are discussed.

  14. Effects of Soil Water on Soil Surface CO2 Fluxes and the Carbon Budget of a Deciduous Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, T. B.; Meyers, T. P.; Heuer, M.

    2007-12-01

    The CO2 flux from the soil surface is an important component of the carbon budget in a forest stand. The soil surface CO2 may contribute about 20 percent of the photosynthesis uptake by the forest with the remainder coming from the atmosphere. Since such a large fraction of the total CO2 flux above the forest canopy may originate in the soil, the contribution of soil surface CO2 flux must therefore be considered in using field measurements of CO2 fluxes to evaluate models for predicting the components of photosynthesis. The CO2 flux at the floor of a deciduous forest seems to depend on soil temperature, soil water content, amount of litter, and the photosynthesis capacity of the forest. An important way to understand these factors is to use fast response and accurate instrument to measure soil CO2 fluxes. We used a prototype soil chamber to measure soil CO2 fluxes at two locations in an oak forest in the NOAA-ATDD GEWEX flux tower network in TN, and the results from the measurement were used to evaluate the performance of a soil-plant-atmosphere model important as a gap- filling tool. Soil surface CO2 flux is the result of largely respiration by the soil biomass consisting of plant roots and dead plant materials. The respiration in vegetation environments depends on the capacity and types of vegetation, as well as on the mineralization of the organic matter by soil microbial activity, which provides nutrients for plant growth and development. In our case of the deciduous forest with large litter cover at floor below the canopy, CO2 flux may be produced by chemical reaction between rainwater and the top organic soil layer. During and immediately after rainfall, the CO2 dissolved in rainwater seems to be released from the warm soil relative to the rainwater. Similarly, CO2 may be released from the soil when rainwater displaces gas in the soil pore space. This physical interaction was observed at two flux tower sites in the oak forest reservation in Oak Ridge, TN. The

  15. Carbon budgets for two Portuguese estuaries: implications for the management and conservation of coastal waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana P. Oliveira

    2014-07-01

    The results presented illustrate that Tagus and Sado estuaries represent an important land/ocean boundary for carbon transformation and emission, and confirm the anthropogenic pressure that these estuaries are subject to. Carbon budgets vary markedly within and between these two estuaries reflecting the human pressure. Anthropogenic inputs, autochthonous carbon production and primary production are indicated as the main responsible for the carbon production within the estuaries. Both estuaries export carbon to the ocean and to the atmosphere. The inorganic carbon faction has a major role in the carbon budget, enriching the ocean in carbon dioxide, contributing this for the greenhouse effect. Our understanding of organic and inorganic carbon fluxes in Tagus and Sado estuaries is vital for an efficient protection and preservation of such ecosystems being helpful in limit human-caused damage and in restoring damaged estuarine/coastal ecosystems. In addition, the economic impact of the carbon fluxes to the atmosphere, estimated as €375,000 per year, creates the appropriate incentives to reduce emissions and shift them to higher-value uses. Suggesting, therefore, a coastal management re-oriented towards a more adaptive approach through the use of carbon market-based policies. This study is a contribution to the integration of coastal and global carbon cycles. However, additional efforts are required to fully merge other components subsystems, such as salt marshes, with these budgets. Moreover, a fully comprehension of the community metabolism in these estuaries will greatly improve this integration.

  16. Developing integrated parametric planning models for budgeting and managing complex projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etnyre, Vance A.; Black, Ken U.

    1988-01-01

    The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.

  17. Simulated effects of nitrogen saturation the global carbon budget using the IBIS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Zhang, Xiuying; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhang, Zhen; Peng, Changhui

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 100 years, human activity has greatly changed the rate of atmospheric N (nitrogen) deposition in terrestrial ecosystems, resulting in N saturation in some regions of the world. The contribution of N saturation to the global carbon budget remains uncertain due to the complicated nature of C-N (carbon-nitrogen) interactions and diverse geography. Although N deposition is included in most terrestrial ecosystem models, the effect of N saturation is frequently overlooked. In this study, the IBIS (Integrated BIosphere Simulator) was used to simulate the global-scale effects of N saturation during the period 1961–2009. The results of this model indicate that N saturation reduced global NPP (Net Primary Productivity) and NEP (Net Ecosystem Productivity) by 0.26 and 0.03 Pg C yr−1, respectively. The negative effects of N saturation on carbon sequestration occurred primarily in temperate forests and grasslands. In response to elevated CO2 levels, global N turnover slowed due to increased biomass growth, resulting in a decline in soil mineral N. These changes in N cycling reduced the impact of N saturation on the global carbon budget. However, elevated N deposition in certain regions may further alter N saturation and C-N coupling.

  18. Modeling the Monthly Water Balance of a First Order Coastal Forested Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. V. Harder; Devendra M. Amatya; T. J. Callahan; Carl C. Trettin

    2006-01-01

    A study has been conducted to evaluate a spreadsheet-based conceptual Thornthwaite monthly water balance model and the process-based DRAINMOD model for their reliability in predicting monthly water budgets of a poorly drained, first order forested watershed at the Santee Experimental Forest located along the Lower Coastal Plain of South Carolina. Measured precipitation...

  19. The influence of irrigation water on the hydrology and lake water budgets of two small arid-climate lakes in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, J.; Rosen, Michael R.; Saito, L.; Decker, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    Little is known regarding the origins and hydrology of hundreds of small lakes located in the western Uzbekistan province of Khorezm, Central Asia. Situated in the Aral Sea Basin, Khorezm is a productive agricultural region, growing mainly cotton, wheat, and rice. Irrigation is provided by an extensive canal network that conveys water from the Amu Darya River (AD) throughout the province. The region receives on average 10 cm/year of precipitation, yet potential evapotranspiration exceeds this amount by about 15 times. It was hypothesized that the perennial existence of the lakes of interest depends on periodic input of excess irrigation water. This hypothesis was investigated by studying two small lakes in the region, Tuyrek and Khodjababa. In June and July 2008, surface water and shallow groundwater samples were collected at these lake systems and surrounding communities and analyzed for δ2H, δ18O, and major ion hydrochemistry to determine water sources. Water table and lake surface elevations were monitored, and the local aquifer characteristics were determined through aquifer tests. These data and climate data from a Class A evaporation pan and meteorological stations were used to estimate water budgets for both lakes. Lake evaporation was found to be about 0.7 cm/day during the study period. Results confirm that the waters sampled at both lake systems and throughout central Khorezm were evaporated from AD water to varying degrees. Together, the water budgets and stable isotope and major ion hydrochemistry data suggest that without surface water input from some source (i.e. excess irrigation water), these and other Khorezm lakes with similar hydrology may decrease in volume dramatically, potentially to the point of complete desiccation.

  20. Ozone Budgets from a Global Chemistry/ Transport Model and Comparison to Observations from POLARIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawa, S. Randy

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) field mission was to obtain data to better characterize the summertime seasonal decrease of ozone at mid to high latitudes. The decrease in ozone occurs mainly in the lower stratosphere and is expected to result from in situ chemical destruction. Instrumented balloons and aircraft were used in POLARIS, along with satellites, to measure ozone and chemical species which are involved with stratospheric ozone chemistry. In order to close the seasonal ozone budget, however, ozone transport must also be estimated. Comparison to a global chemistry and transport model (CTM) of the stratosphere indicates how well the summertime ozone loss processes are simulated and thus how well we can predict the ozone response to changing amounts of chemical source gases. Moreover, the model gives insight into the possible relative magnitude of transport contributions to the seasonal ozone decline. Initial comparison to the Goddard CTM, which uses transport winds and temperatures from meteorological data assimilation, shows a high ozone bias in the model and an attenuated summertime ozone loss cycle. Comparison of the model chemical partitioning, and ozone catalytic loss rates to those derived from measurements shows fairly close agreement both at ER-2 altitudes (20 km) and higher. This suggests that the model transport is too active in resupplying ozone to the high latitude region, although chemistry failings cannot be completely ruled out. Comparison of ozone and related species will be shown along with a full diagnosis of the model ozone budget and its possible sources of error.

  1. Ground-Water Budgets for the Wood River Valley Aquifer System, South-Central Idaho, 1995-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolino, James R.

    2009-01-01

    The Wood River Valley contains most of the population of Blaine County and the cities of Sun Valley, Ketchum, Haley, and Bellevue. This mountain valley is underlain by the alluvial Wood River Valley aquifer system which consists of a single unconfined aquifer that underlies the entire valley, an underlying confined aquifer that is present only in the southernmost valley, and the confining unit that separates them. The entire population of the area depends on ground water for domestic supply, either from domestic or municipal-supply wells, and rapid population growth since the 1970s has caused concern about the long-term sustainability of the ground-water resource. To help address these concerns this report describes a ground-water budget developed for the Wood River Valley aquifer system for three selected time periods: average conditions for the 10-year period 1995-2004, and the single years of 1995 and 2001. The 10-year period 1995-2004 represents a range of conditions in the recent past for which measured data exist. Water years 1995 and 2001 represent the wettest and driest years, respectively, within the 10-year period based on precipitation at the Ketchum Ranger Station. Recharge or inflow to the Wood River Valley aquifer system occurs through seven main sources (from largest to smallest): infiltration from tributary canyons, streamflow loss from the Big Wood River, areal recharge from precipitation and applied irrigation water, seepage from canals and recharge pits, leakage from municipal pipes, percolation from septic systems, and subsurface inflow beneath the Big Wood River in the northern end of the valley. Total estimated mean annual inflow or recharge to the aquifer system for 1995-2004 is 270,000 acre-ft/yr (370 ft3/s). Total recharge for the wet year 1995 and the dry year 2001 is estimated to be 270,000 acre-ft/yr (370 ft3/s) and 220,000 acre-ft/yr (300 ft3/s), respectively. Discharge or outflow from the Wood River Valley aquifer system occurs through

  2. WATER DIVERSION MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.B. Case

    1999-12-21

    The distribution of seepage in the proposed repository will be highly variable due in part to variations in the spatial distribution of percolations. The performance of the drip shield and the backfill system may divert the water flux around the waste packages to the invert. Diversion will occur along the drift surface, within the backfill, at the drip shield, and at the Waste Package (WP) surface, even after the drip shield and WP have been breached by corrosion. The purpose and objective of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) are to develop a conceptual model and constitutive properties for bounding the volume and rate of seepage water that flows around the drip shield (CRWMS M&O 1999c). This analysis model is to be compatible with the selected repository conceptual design (Wilkins and Heath, 1999) and will be used to evaluate the performance of the Engineered Barrier System (EBS), and to provide input to the EBS Water Distribution and Removal Model. This model supports the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) postclosure performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (SR). This document characterizes the hydrological constitutive properties of the backfill and invert materials (Section 6.2) and a third material that represents a mixture of the two. These include the Overton Sand which is selected as a backfill (Section 5.2), crushed tuff which is selected as the invert (Section 5.1), and a combined material (Sections 5.9 and 5.10) which has retention and hydraulic conductivity properties intermediate to the selected materials for the backfill and the invert. The properties include the grain size distribution, the dry bulk density and porosity, the moisture retention, the intrinsic permeability, the relative permeability, and the material thermal properties. The van Genuchten relationships with curve fit parameters are used to define the basic retention relationship of moisture potential to volumetric moisture content, and the basic relationship of unsaturated

  3. Carbon and Water Budgets in Multiple Wheat-Based Cropping Systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest US: Comparison of CropSyst Simulations with Eddy Covariance Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinshu Chi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Accurate carbon and water flux simulations for croplands are greatly dependent on high quality representation of management practices and meteorological conditions, which are key drivers of the surface-atmosphere exchange processes. Fourteen site-years of carbon and water fluxes were simulated using the CropSyst model over four agricultural sites in the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW US from October 1, 2011 to September 30, 2015. Model performance for field-scale net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE and evapotranspiration (ET was evaluated by comparing simulations with long-term eddy covariance measurements. The model captured the temporal variations of NEE and ET reasonably well with an overall r of 0.78 and 0.80, and a low RMSE of 1.82 g C m−2 d−1 and 0.84 mm d−1 for NEE and ET, respectively. The model slightly underestimated NEE and ET by 0.51 g C m−2 d−1 and 0.09 mm d−1, respectively. ET simulations showed better agreement with eddy covariance measurements than NEE. The model performed much better for the sites with detailed initial conditions (e.g., SOC content and management practice information (e.g., tillage type. The CropSyst results showed that the winter wheat fields could be annual net carbon sinks or close to neutral with the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB ranging from 92 to −17 g C m−2, while the spring crop fields were net carbon sources or neutral with an annual NECB of −327 to −3 g C m−2. Simulations for the paired tillage sites showed that the no-till site resulted in lower CO2 emissions for the crop rotations of winter wheat-spring garbanzo, but had higher carbon loss into the atmosphere for spring canola compared to the conventional tillage site. Water budgets did not differ significantly between the two tillage systems. Winter wheat in the high-rainfall area had higher crop yields and water use efficiency but emitted larger amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere than in the low-rainfall area. Based on

  4. Spectral Energy Budget of High Resolution General Circulation Models: Simulation of the Direct Energy Cascade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augier, P.; Lindborg, E.

    2012-12-01

    Nastrom and Gage (1985) showed that the atmospheric kinetic energy and potential temperature spectra measured in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere present two inertial ranges. At the mesoscales, the spectra have a kh-5/3 power law dependence. At larger scales, there is a narrow range where the spectra show a kh-3 dependence. Recently, there has been considerable progress in simulating the observed spectra with some high resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) (see e.g.~Hamilton et al., 2008). Our aim is to understand fundamental mechanisms of energy transfer between different scales and how well these mechanisms are described by different GCMs. In particular, we wish to test the hypothesis recently proposed by Vallgren, Deusebio & Lindborg (2011), that the atmospheric kinetic and potential energy spectra can be explained by assuming that there are two cascade processes emanating from the same large-scale energy source at scales of thousands of kilometers. In order to do this, we calculate the spectral budgets of energy using data from different GCMs, including data from the T639L24 AFES model and the T1279L91 ECMWF Integrated Forecast System. The concept of available potential energy (APE, Lorenz, 1955) has been used to formulate the spectral budgets of the so-called ``primitive equations'' in pressure coordinates, with spherical harmonics as the base functions, and taking into account the topography. The ratio of the total APE over the total kinetic energy (KE) is large, of the order of 3. This is due to a larger magnitude of the APE spectrum at the very large scales of the atmosphere (total wavenumber l ≤slant 3). At the other scales, APE and KE spectra are of the same order of magnitude. For the ECMWF model and at the synoptic scales, the APE spectrum is half the KE spectrum as predicted by Charney (1971). The main terms of the spectral energy budget are computed, which allows us to present a spectral representation of the Lorenz energy cycle

  5. Motivation in Beyond Budgeting: A Motivational Paradox?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandalgaard, Niels; Bukh, Per Nikolaj

    In this paper we discuss the role of motivation in relation to budgeting and we analyse how the Beyond Budgeting model functions compared with traditional budgeting. In the paper we focus on budget related motivation (and motivation in general) and conclude that the Beyond Budgeting model...... is a motivational paradox....

  6. Soil organic carbon redistribution by water erosion--the role of CO2 emissions for the carbon budget.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wang

    Full Text Available A better process understanding of how water erosion influences the redistribution of soil organic carbon (SOC is sorely needed to unravel the role of soil erosion for the carbon (C budget from local to global scales. The main objective of this study was to determine SOC redistribution and the complete C budget of a loess soil affected by water erosion. We measured fluxes of SOC, dissolved organic C (DOC and CO2 in a pseudo-replicated rainfall-simulation experiment. We characterized different C fractions in soils and redistributed sediments using density fractionation and determined C enrichment ratios (CER in the transported sediments. Erosion, transport and subsequent deposition resulted in significantly higher CER of the sediments exported ranging between 1.3 and 4.0. In the exported sediments, C contents (mg per g soil of particulate organic C (POC, C not bound to soil minerals and mineral-associated organic C (MOC were both significantly higher than those of non-eroded soils indicating that water erosion resulted in losses of C-enriched material both in forms of POC and MOC. The averaged SOC fluxes as particles (4.7 g C m(-2 yr(-1 were 18 times larger than DOC fluxes. Cumulative emission of soil CO2 slightly decreased at the erosion zone while increased by 56% and 27% at the transport and depositional zone, respectively, in comparison to non-eroded soil. Overall, CO2 emission is the predominant form of C loss contributing to about 90.5% of total erosion-induced C losses in our 4-month experiment, which were equal to 18 g C m(-2. Nevertheless, only 1.5% of the total redistributed C was mineralized to CO2 indicating a large stabilization after deposition. Our study also underlines the importance of C losses by particles and as DOC for understanding the effects of water erosion on the C balance at the interface of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

  7. Soil Organic Carbon Redistribution by Water Erosion – The Role of CO2 Emissions for the Carbon Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiang; Cammeraat, Erik L. H.; Romeijn, Paul; Kalbitz, Karsten

    2014-01-01

    A better process understanding of how water erosion influences the redistribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) is sorely needed to unravel the role of soil erosion for the carbon (C) budget from local to global scales. The main objective of this study was to determine SOC redistribution and the complete C budget of a loess soil affected by water erosion. We measured fluxes of SOC, dissolved organic C (DOC) and CO2 in a pseudo-replicated rainfall-simulation experiment. We characterized different C fractions in soils and redistributed sediments using density fractionation and determined C enrichment ratios (CER) in the transported sediments. Erosion, transport and subsequent deposition resulted in significantly higher CER of the sediments exported ranging between 1.3 and 4.0. In the exported sediments, C contents (mg per g soil) of particulate organic C (POC, C not bound to soil minerals) and mineral-associated organic C (MOC) were both significantly higher than those of non-eroded soils indicating that water erosion resulted in losses of C-enriched material both in forms of POC and MOC. The averaged SOC fluxes as particles (4.7 g C m−2 yr−1) were 18 times larger than DOC fluxes. Cumulative emission of soil CO2 slightly decreased at the erosion zone while increased by 56% and 27% at the transport and depositional zone, respectively, in comparison to non-eroded soil. Overall, CO2 emission is the predominant form of C loss contributing to about 90.5% of total erosion-induced C losses in our 4-month experiment, which were equal to 18 g C m−2. Nevertheless, only 1.5% of the total redistributed C was mineralized to CO2 indicating a large stabilization after deposition. Our study also underlines the importance of C losses by particles and as DOC for understanding the effects of water erosion on the C balance at the interface of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. PMID:24802350

  8. Soil organic carbon redistribution by water erosion--the role of CO2 emissions for the carbon budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiang; Cammeraat, Erik L H; Romeijn, Paul; Kalbitz, Karsten

    2014-01-01

    A better process understanding of how water erosion influences the redistribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) is sorely needed to unravel the role of soil erosion for the carbon (C) budget from local to global scales. The main objective of this study was to determine SOC redistribution and the complete C budget of a loess soil affected by water erosion. We measured fluxes of SOC, dissolved organic C (DOC) and CO2 in a pseudo-replicated rainfall-simulation experiment. We characterized different C fractions in soils and redistributed sediments using density fractionation and determined C enrichment ratios (CER) in the transported sediments. Erosion, transport and subsequent deposition resulted in significantly higher CER of the sediments exported ranging between 1.3 and 4.0. In the exported sediments, C contents (mg per g soil) of particulate organic C (POC, C not bound to soil minerals) and mineral-associated organic C (MOC) were both significantly higher than those of non-eroded soils indicating that water erosion resulted in losses of C-enriched material both in forms of POC and MOC. The averaged SOC fluxes as particles (4.7 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) were 18 times larger than DOC fluxes. Cumulative emission of soil CO2 slightly decreased at the erosion zone while increased by 56% and 27% at the transport and depositional zone, respectively, in comparison to non-eroded soil. Overall, CO2 emission is the predominant form of C loss contributing to about 90.5% of total erosion-induced C losses in our 4-month experiment, which were equal to 18 g C m(-2). Nevertheless, only 1.5% of the total redistributed C was mineralized to CO2 indicating a large stabilization after deposition. Our study also underlines the importance of C losses by particles and as DOC for understanding the effects of water erosion on the C balance at the interface of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

  9. The Energy Budget of Earthquake Rupture: a View From Spontaneous Rupture Modeling and Finite-Source Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mai, P.; Guatteri, M.

    2003-12-01

    It is a common and frustrating experience of many dynamic modelers to initiate spontaneous rupture calculations that subsequently abort before rupturing to the desired earthquake size [Nielsen and Olsen, 2000; Oglesby and Day, 2002]. Source parameters in such dynamic source models are strongly correlated, but stress drop is the main factor affecting the distribution of the other dynamic rupture parameters. Additionally, the position of the hypocenter exerts a strong influence on the dynamic properties of the earthquake, and certain hypocenter positions are not plausible as those would not lead to spontaneous rupture propagation. To further investigate this last statement, we analyze the energy budget during earthquake rupture using spontaneous dynamic rupture calculations and finite-source rupture models. In describing the energy budget during earthquake rupture, we follow Favreau and Archuleta [2003]. Each point on the fault contributes to the radiated seismic energy Ers = Eel - Efr - Erx, where Eel denotes the elasto-static energy and Efr the fracture energy. In this study we neglect for simplicity the relaxation work Erx spent during the stopping of the earthquake. A rupture can be characterized by locally negative seismic energy density values, but its integral over the fault plane must be positive. The fundamental condition for rupture growth is therefore that the integral of Ers on the rupture area remains always positive during rupture propagation. Based on a simple energy budget calculation, we focus on identifying those target slip/stress distribution in dynamic rupture modeling that for a given hypocenter location fail to rupture spontaneously. Additionally, we study the energy budget of finite-source rupture models by analyzing the integrated seismic energy for the inferred slip maps using also hypocenter positions other than the network location. These results indicate how rupture was promoted for the true hypocenter while randomized hypocenters may not

  10. Scale Invariant Power Laws Capture the 3-D Coupling Between Water, Energy and Carbon Budgets Across River Basins of Increasing Horton-Strahler Orders in the Andes-Amazon System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveda, G.; Zapata, A. F.

    2016-12-01

    The Andes-Amazon system exhibits complex interactions and feedbacks between hydrological, ecological, biogeochemical and climatic factors in a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. We aim to understand the coupling existing between water, energy and carbon budgets in the Andes-Amazon system, by performing a systematic study of the system for river basins of increasing Horton-Strahler orders, from the headwaters of the Amazon River basin along the Andes (order ω=1 river sub-basins) to the low-lying larger river sub-basins (order ω=10). To that end, this works introduces a 3-D generalization of the Budyko framework that aims to link the water, energy, and Carbon budgets in river basins. The newly proposed 3-D non-dimensional space is defined by: (1) the ratio between long-term mean values of Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and Precipitation (P), α=AET/P, representing the water balance; (2) the ratio between AET and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), β=AET/PET, representing the energy balance; and (3) the ratio between AET and Aboveground Net Primary Productivity, δ=AET/ANPP, representing the carbon budget. We use a 3" Digital Elevation Model (DEM), which allows defining river basins with Horton-Strahler orders from 1 to 10. The long-term water, energy, and carbon budgets are estimated for increasing values of the Horton-Strahler orders during the period 1987-2007. Data sets pertaining to the water balance come from ORE-HYBAM, potential evapotranspiration (PET) from GLEAM (Global Land-surface Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology). Data for the energy budget are from the Surface Radiation Budget (SRB). Data for the Carbon budget (annual mean net primary productivity, ANPP, gross primary productivity, GPP, and respiration rates, Rr, come from AMAZALERT and ORCHEDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms), as well as from Flux Tower Data and the LBA project. Our results show that scale invariant power-laws emerge to capture the three 2-D

  11. Modelling Ballast Water Transport

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jayakumar, S.; Babu, M.T.; Vethamony, P.

    Ballast water discharges in the coastal environs have caused a great concern over the recent periods as they account for transporting marine organisms from one part of the world to the other. The movement of discharged ballast water as well...

  12. Relationships between lake-level changes and water and salt budgets in the Dead Sea during extreme aridities in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiro, Yael; Goldstein, Steven L.; Garcia-Veigas, Javier; Levy, Elan; Kushnir, Yochanan; Stein, Mordechai; Lazar, Boaz

    2017-04-01

    Thick halite intervals recovered by the Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project cores show evidence for severely arid climatic conditions in the eastern Mediterranean during the last three interglacials. In particular, the core interval corresponding to the peak of the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e or MIS 5e) contains ∼30 m of salt over 85 m of core length, making this the driest known period in that region during the late Quaternary. This study reconstructs Dead Sea lake levels during the salt deposition intervals, based on water and salt budgets derived from the Dead Sea brine composition and the amount of salt in the core. Modern water and salt budgets indicate that halite precipitates only during declining lake levels, while the amount of dissolved Na+ and Cl- accumulates during wetter intervals. Based on the compositions of Dead Sea brines from pore waters and halite fluid inclusions, we estimate that ∼12-16 cm of halite precipitated per meter of lake-level drop. During periods of halite precipitation, the Mg2+ concentration increases and the Na+/Cl- ratio decreases in the lake. Our calculations indicate major lake-level drops of ∼170 m from lake levels of 320 and 310 m below sea level (mbsl) down to lake levels of ∼490 and ∼480 mbsl, during MIS 5e and the Holocene, respectively. These lake levels are much lower than typical interglacial lake levels of around 400 mbsl. These lake-level drops occurred as a result of major decreases in average fresh water runoff, to ∼40% of the modern value (pre-1964, before major fresh water diversions), reflecting severe droughts during which annual precipitation in Jerusalem was lower than 350 mm/y, compared to ∼600 mm/y today. Nevertheless, even during salt intervals, the changes in halite facies and the occurrence of alternating periods of halite and detritus in the Dead Sea core stratigraphy reflect fluctuations between drier and wetter conditions around our estimated average. The halite intervals include

  13. Linking Adverse Outcome Pathways to Dynamic Energy Budgets: A Conceptual Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Cheryl [Michigan State University, East Lansing; Nisbet, Roger [University of California Santa Barbara; Antczak, Philipp [University of Liverpool, UK; Reyero, Natalia [Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg; Gergs, Andre [Gaiac; Lika, Dina [University of Crete; Mathews, Teresa J. [ORNL; Muller, Eric [University of California, Santa Barbara; Nacci, Dianne [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); Peace, Angela L. [ORNL; Remien, Chris [University of Idaho; Schulz, Irv [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Watanabe, Karen [Arizona State University

    2018-02-01

    Ecological risk assessment quantifies the likelihood of undesirable impacts of stressors, primarily at high levels of biological organization. Data used to inform ecological risk assessments come primarily from tests on individual organisms or from suborganismal studies, indicating a disconnect between primary data and protection goals. We know how to relate individual responses to population dynamics using individual-based models, and there are emerging ideas on how to make connections to ecosystem services. However, there is no established methodology to connect effects seen at higher levels of biological organization with suborganismal dynamics, despite progress made in identifying Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) that link molecular initiating events to ecologically relevant key events. This chapter is a product of a working group at the National Center for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) that assessed the feasibility of using dynamic energy budget (DEB) models of individual organisms as a “pivot” connecting suborganismal processes to higher level ecological processes. AOP models quantify explicit molecular, cellular or organ-level processes, but do not offer a route to linking sub-organismal damage to adverse effects on individual growth, reproduction, and survival, which can be propagated to the population level through individual-based models. DEB models describe these processes, but use abstract variables with undetermined connections to suborganismal biology. We propose linking DEB and quantitative AOP models by interpreting AOP key events as measures of damage-inducing processes in a DEB model. Here, we present a conceptual model for linking AOPs to DEB models and review existing modeling tools available for both AOP and DEB.

  14. Impact of soil hydrology formulation on water budget and phenology over the Amazon basin. Sensitivity of simulated hydrology to the dry-season length.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimberteau, Matthieu; Ciais, Philippe; Ducharne, Agnès; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Peng, Shushi; De Weirdt, Marjolein; Verbeeck, Hans

    2014-05-01

    The role of soil moisture in controlling evapotranspiration (ET) is important over the Amazon basin, and particularly in south Amazonia, where a high rate of water recycling is sustained through transpiration. Thus, soil moisture parametrization in Land Surface Models (LSMs) plays a critical role in accurate modeling of the hydro-climatology and CO2 fluxes. Multilayer schemes have been introduced in LSMs to better describe the water diffusion through the soil. The main question we address here is "Does the use of a soil diffusion scheme, rather than a simpler bucket-type scheme, improve the simulation of water storage dynamics and water fluxes?". For the first time, we compare two soil models embedded in ORCHIDEE coupled to the same river routing scheme and interactive phenology/carbon cycle module: a simple 2 layer soil scheme with a bucket topped by an evaporative layer (2LAY) and an 11 layer soil diffusion scheme (11LAY). We tested their different impacts on the estimated Amazonian water budget and carbon flux dynamics, which are compared with several datasets, at the scale of the five major tributary sub-basins. The use of the 11LAY did not significantly change the Amazonian water budget simulation when compared to the 2LAY. However, the higher water holding capacity of the soil and the physically based representation of runoff and drainage in the 11LAY resulted in higher dynamic of soil water storage variations and improved simulation of the total terrestrial water storage when compared to GRACE satellite estimates. The greater soil water storage within the 11LAY resulted in increased dry-season ET in the southeastern sub-basins such as the Xingu. Lower plant water stress simulated by the 11LAY led to better simulation of the seasonal cycle of photosynthesis (GPP) when compared to a GPP data-driven model based upon eddy-covariance and satellite greenness measurements. Simulated LAI was consequently higher with the 11LAY but exhibited too low a variation when

  15. Modelling the reactive nitrogen budget across Germany using LOTOS-EUROS between 2000 and 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaap, Martijn; Banzhaf, Sabine; Hendriks, Carlijn; Kranenburg, Richard

    2017-04-01

    Nitrogen deposition causes soil acidification and enhances eutrophication causing biodiversity loss. Currently, a major contribution to N-deposition derives from ammonia. Furthermore, ammonia contributes to the formation of secondary inorganic aerosol, a major contributor to atmospheric particulate matter levels. The aerosol formation provides a means of long range transport of reactive nitrogen as the life time of the aerosols is larger than that of ammonia itself. Despite its central role in these environmental threats, little is known about the ammonia budget. In this study we report on recent modelling study to assess the ammonia and reactive nitrogen budget over Germany for a period of 14 years (2000-2013). Prior to the long term simulation the process descriptions in the LOTOS-EUROS CTM were updated and a sensitivity simulation was performed showing that the impact of the compensation point for ammonia and the changes in aerosol deposition had the largest impact against earlier studies. Next, sensitivity simulations were performed to assess the impact of newly reported emissions totals (with 30 higher emissions caused by adjusted emission factors for fertilizer spreading), different spatial and temporal emission variability. Long term evaluation showed that the model is well able to reproduce the variability in wet deposition fluxes induced by varying precipitation amounts, but that systematic changes remain. These sensitivity simulations showed that detailing the seasonal emission variability is more important to remove systematic differences than lowering the uncertainty in dry deposition parametrization. Evaluation with the ammonia retrievals of the IASI satellite confirm that the newly reported emission data for fertilizer application have positive impacts on the modelled ammonia distribution. The new emission information confirms an emission area observed by the satellite in the northeast of Germany, which was previously absent from the national scale

  16. Water quality, nutrient budget, and pollutant loads in Chinese mitten crab ( Eriocheir sinensis) farms around East Taihu Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chunfang; Gu, Xiaohong; Huang, Hezhong; Dai, Xiuying; Ye, Yuantu; Shi, Chenjiang

    2012-01-01

    To understand the factors causing frequent outbreaks of harmful algae blooms in the Taihu Lake, China, we studied water quality and nutrient budget in Chinese mitten crab ( Eriocheir sinensis) farm ponds in the eastern part of the lake from November 2007 to December 2009. We estimated the nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) loads. Materials input and output ponds, water exchange, and applied management practices of 838.5-hm2 crab ponds were surveyed using questionnaires. Water quality of 12 ponds, which were located no more than 2 km from East Taihu Lake, were monitored. The results show that water quality in the crab ponds was better than reference data. Feeds, including corn seed, commercial feed, trash fish, and gastropod, were the major sources of N and P input in the crab ponds, contributing 88.7% and 94.9%, respectively. In total, 60.5% of N and 37.3% of P were sequestered by macrophytes, and only 15.7% and 8.5% of them were discharged as effluent. The net loads of N and P in effluent were 16.43 kg/hm2/cycle and 2.16 kg/hm2/cycle, respectively, while the COD load was -17.88 kg/hm2/cycle. This indicated that crab farming caused minor negative impact on the trophic status of the lake area, which was attenuated by macrophytes. However, wastewater purification is still necessary in crab faming.

  17. Budget of tropospheric ozone during TOPSE from two chemical transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmons, L. K.; Hess, P.; Klonecki, A.; Tie, X.; Horowitz, L.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Kinnison, D.; Brasseur, G.; Atlas, E.; Browell, E.; Cantrell, C.; Eisele, F.; Mauldin, R. L.; Merrill, J.; Ridley, B.; Shetter, R.

    2003-04-01

    The tropospheric ozone budget during the Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox (TOPSE) campaign has been studied using two chemical transport models (CTMs): HANK and the Model of Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2). The two models have similar chemical schemes but use different meteorological fields, with HANK using MM5 (Pennsylvania State University, National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Modeling System) and MOZART-2 driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fields. Both models simulate ozone in good agreement with the observations but underestimate NOx. The models indicate that in the troposphere, averaged over the northern middle and high latitudes, chemical production of ozone drives the increase of ozone seen in the spring. Both ozone gross chemical production and loss increase greatly over the spring months. The in situ production is much larger than the net stratospheric input, and the deposition and horizontal fluxes are relatively small in comparison to chemical destruction. The net production depends sensitively on the concentrations of H2O, HO2 and NO, which differ slightly in the two models. Both models underestimate the chemical production calculated in a steady state model using TOPSE measurements, but the chemical loss rates agree well. Measures of the stratospheric influence on tropospheric ozone in relation to in situ ozone production are discussed. Two different estimates of the stratospheric fraction of O3 in the Northern Hemisphere troposphere indicate it decreases from 30-50% in February to 15-30% in June. A sensitivity study of the effect of a perturbation in the vertical flux on tropospheric ozone indicates the contribution from the stratosphere is approximately 15%.

  18. Revisiting the global surface energy budgets with maximum-entropy-production model of surface heat fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shih-Yu; Deng, Yi; Wang, Jingfeng

    2017-09-01

    The maximum-entropy-production (MEP) model of surface heat fluxes, based on contemporary non-equilibrium thermodynamics, information theory, and atmospheric turbulence theory, is used to re-estimate the global surface heat fluxes. The MEP model predicted surface fluxes automatically balance the surface energy budgets at all time and space scales without the explicit use of near-surface temperature and moisture gradient, wind speed and surface roughness data. The new MEP-based global annual mean fluxes over the land surface, using input data of surface radiation, temperature data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (NASA CERES) supplemented by surface specific humidity data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), agree closely with previous estimates. The new estimate of ocean evaporation, not using the MERRA reanalysis data as model inputs, is lower than previous estimates, while the new estimate of ocean sensible heat flux is higher than previously reported. The MEP model also produces the first global map of ocean surface heat flux that is not available from existing global reanalysis products.

  19. A process to estimate net infiltration using a site-scale water-budget approach, Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, 2002–05

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David W.; Moreo, Michael T.; Garcia, C. Amanda; Halford, Keith J.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

    2017-08-29

    This report documents a process used to estimate net infiltration from precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil data acquired at two sites on Rainier Mesa. Rainier Mesa is a groundwater recharge area within the Nevada National Security Site where recharged water flows through bedrock fractures to a deep (450 meters) water table. The U.S. Geological Survey operated two ET stations on Rainier Mesa from 2002 to 2005 at sites characterized by pinyon-juniper and scrub-brush vegetative cover. Precipitation and ET data were corrected to remove measurement biases and gap-filled to develop continuous datasets. Net infiltration (percolation below the root zone) and changes in root-zone water storage were estimated using a monthly water-balance model.Site-scale water-budget results indicate that the heavily-fractured welded-tuff bedrock underlying thin (<40 centimeters) topsoil is a critical water source for vegetation during dry periods. Annual precipitation during the study period ranged from fourth lowest (182 millimeters [mm]) to second highest (708 mm) on record (record = 55 years). Annual ET exceeded precipitation during dry years, indicating that the fractured-bedrock reservoir capacity is sufficient to meet atmospheric-evaporative demands and to sustain vegetation through extended dry periods. Net infiltration (82 mm) was simulated during the wet year after the reservoir was rapidly filled to capacity. These results support previous conclusions that preferential fracture flow was induced, resulting in an episodic recharge pulse that was detected in nearby monitoring wells. The occurrence of net infiltration only during the wet year is consistent with detections of water-level rises in nearby monitoring wells that occur only following wet years.

  20. Estimation of packaged water consumption and associated plastic waste production from household budget surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardrop, Nicola A.; Dzodzomenyo, Mawuli; Aryeetey, Genevieve; Hill, Allan G.; Bain, Robert E. S.; Wright, Jim

    2017-08-01

    Packaged water consumption is growing in low- and middle-income countries, but the magnitude of this phenomenon and its environmental consequences remain unclear. This study aims to quantify both the volumes of packaged water consumed relative to household water requirements and associated plastic waste generated for three West African case study countries. Data from household expenditure surveys for Ghana, Nigeria and Liberia were used to estimate the volumes of packaged water consumed and thereby quantify plastic waste generated in households with and without solid waste disposal facilities. In Ghana, Nigeria and Liberia respectively, 11.3 (95% confidence interval: 10.3-12.4), 10.1 (7.5-12.5), and 0.38 (0.31-0.45) Ml day-1 of sachet water were consumed. This generated over 28 000 tonnes yr-1 of plastic waste, of which 20%, 63% and 57% was among households lacking formal waste disposal facilities in Ghana, Nigeria and Liberia respectively. Reported packaged water consumption provided sufficient water to meet daily household drinking-water requirements for 8.4%, less than 1% and 1.6% of households in Ghana, Nigeria and Liberia respectively. These findings quantify packaged water’s contribution to household water needs in our study countries, particularly Ghana, but indicate significant subsequent environmental repercussions.

  1. Modelling water temperature in TOXSWA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, C.M.J.; Deneer, J.W.; Adriaanse, P.I.

    2010-01-01

    A reasonably accurate estimate of the water temperature is necessary for a good description of the degradation of plant protection products in water which is used in the surface water model TOXSWA. Based on a consideration of basic physical processes that describe the influence of weather on the

  2. A budget impact model for biosimilar infliximab in Crohn's disease in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodszky, Valentin; Rencz, Fanni; Péntek, Márta; Baji, Petra; Lakatos, Péter L; Gulácsi, László

    2016-01-01

    To estimate the budget impact of the introduction of biosimilar infliximab for the treatment of Crohn's disease (CD) in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. A 3-year, prevalence-based budget impact analysis for biosimilar infliximab to treat CD was developed from third-party payers' perspective. The model included various scenarios depending on whether interchanging originator infliximab with biosimilar infliximab was allowed or not. Total cost savings achieved in biosimilar scenario 1 (interchanging not allowed) and BSc2 (interchanging allowed in 80% of the patients) were estimated to €8.0 million and €16.9 million in the six countries. Budget savings may cover the biosimilar infliximab therapy for 722-1530 additional CD patients. Introduction of biosimilar infliximab to treat CD may offset the inequity in access to biological therapy for CD between Central and Eastern European countries.

  3. Idealized numerical modeling of polar mesocyclones dynamics diagnosed by energy budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeev, Dennis; Stepanenko, Victor

    2014-05-01

    Polar mesocyclones (MC) refer to a wide class of mesoscale vortices occuring poleward of the main polar front [1]. Their subtype - polar low - is commonly known for its intensity, that can result in windstorm damage of infrastructure in high latitudes. The observational data sparsity and the small size of polar MCs are major limitations for the clear understanding and numerical prediction of the evolution of these objects. The origin of polar MCs is still a matter of uncertainty, though the recent numerical investigations have exposed a strong dependence of the polar mesocyclone development upon the magnitude of baroclinicity and upon the water vapor concentration in the atmosphere. However, most of the previous studies focused on the individual polar low (the so-called case studies), with too many factors affecting it simultaneously and none of them being dominant in polar MC generation. This study focuses on the early stages of polar MC development within an idealized numerical experiments with mesoscale atmospheric model, where it is possible to look deeper into each single physical process. Our aim is to explain the role of such mechanisms as baroclinic instability or diabatic heating by comparing their contribution to the structure and dynamics of the vortex. The baroclinic instability, as reported by many researchers [2], can be a crucial factor in a MC's life cycle, especially in polar regions. Besides the baroclinic instability several diabatic processes can contribute to the energy generation that fuels a polar mesocyclone. One of the key energy sources in polar regions is surface heat fluxes. The other is the moisture content in the atmosphere that can affect the development of the disturbance by altering the latent heat release. To evaluate the relative importance of the diabatic and baroclinic energy sources for the development of the polar mesocyclone we apply energy diagnostics. In other words, we examine the rate of change of the kinetic energy (that

  4. Water budget and the role of land-sea interactions of a coastal wetland at the German Baltic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronstert, Axel; Thomas, Graeff; Konrad, Miegel; Selle, Benny; Thomas, Salzmann; Christian, Franck

    2017-04-01

    Coastal low moors are characteristic elements of the landscapes along Germany's Baltic Sea coastline. Under natural conditions, their hydrological peculiarities include exchange processes between the fens and the Baltic Sea. Due to human interventions such as the construction of dunes and dykes, drainage systems and lately also renaturation measures, their hydrological regime has been changed various times during the past centuries. The nature reserve "Hütelmoor und Heiligensee" northeast of the city Rostock has been selected as a natural observatory, instrumented with a number of measurement devices, and is therefore well-suited for investigating the effects of past and future changes. This contribution presents the observational programme and aims at identifying the relevant hydrological processes that affect the water balance of such wetlands. The investigations are based on a monitoring network measuring groundwater levels and electric conductivity within the moor's body since 2009, as well as on measurements of the surface water fluxes across the catchment boundaries and of meteorological parameters. The measurements enable the identification of the governing hydrological processes and patterns. On the basis of a system water budgeting approach we derived balancing of the different water flows across the system's borders (precipitation, evapotranspiration, inflows from the neighbouring parts of the catchment area, subterranean exchange processes with the Baltic Sea and the area's superficial discharge). Furthermore, the episodic input of salty water in case of heavy storm tides may provide a natural tracer. This tracer allows to better identify both vertical processes in the lowland (precipitation, evaporation and rising groundwater levels) as well as lateral transport processes (such as, e.g., water fluxes between groundwater bodies and the area`s trench system or land-sea interactions).

  5. Operational budgeting using fuzzy goal programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Mohammadi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Having an efficient budget normally has different advantages such as measuring the performance of various organizations, setting appropriate targets and promoting managers based on their achievements. However, any budgeting planning requires prediction of different cost components. There are various methods for budgeting planning such as incremental budgeting, program budgeting, zero based budgeting and performance budgeting. In this paper, we present a fuzzy goal programming to estimate operational budget. The proposed model uses fuzzy triangular as well as interval number to estimate budgeting expenses. The proposed study of this paper is implemented for a real-world case study in province of Qom, Iran and the results are analyzed.

  6. Water Stress Projection Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    En gi ne er in g R es ea rc h La bo ra to ry Juliana M. Wilhoit, Grace M. Díaz-Estrada, James P. Miller, and James Westervelt September 2016...Raster Grids. Recharge rates and land use data were available in raster Geographic Information System ( GIS ) grids (1-km and 30-meter, respec- tively...climatic drivers (Roy et al. 2012). Shifts in ag- ricultural water withdrawals may be affected by factors such as water rights, crops being irrigated

  7. Closing the agricultural water budget: Return flow, ET and the role of laser scintillometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, S. N.; Gordon, B. L.

    2016-12-01

    As one of the western United States' oldest and largest water users, irrigation is of increasing interest as energy development, agricultural production, and population growth alter existing regional dynamics. When irrigation water is applied to agricultural fields, a portion of the applied water is consumed by crops in the process of evapotranspiration. The remaining water eventually makes its way back to adjacent streams and aquifers in the form of return flows. Statewide and regional estimates for both evapotranspiration requirements and return flow vary. Research was conducted in a semi-arid agricultural system adjacent to Bear Creek in northwestern Wyoming. Using an agricultural water balance as a general framework for investigation, we combined hydrological, ecophysiological, and geophysical measurements to quantify total evapotranspiration from agricultural fields. Total return flow contribution from flood irrigation was also quantified using a network of submersible pressure transducers in Bear Creek. The study found that empirical estimates generally over-predict measured evapotranspiration. To quantify the evapotranspiration from the study area we deployed a laser scintillometer over a 664 meter long path representative of the vegetation of the site. Separate totals for measurements taken during unstable periods and during stable/unstable periods were calculated for two reasons: 1) to determine whether comparison during periods of instability were more or less accurate than comparisons over the full day; and 2) to determine whether the inclusion of measurements taken during stable periods drastically altered the seasonal total obtained from the scintillometer. Our results indicated that the inclusion of stable measurements only marginally changed total seasonal ET. The closure in the water balance resulting from using the scintillometer was 94.0% for the 2015 irrigation season water balance. 38.20% of applied water returned to the Bear Creek system and 20

  8. Fuel for cyclones: How the water vapor budget of a hurricane depends on its motion

    CERN Document Server

    Makarieva, Anastassia M; Nefiodov, Andrei V; Chikunov, Alexander V; Sheil, Douglas; Nobre, Antonio D; Li, Bai-Lian

    2016-01-01

    Tropical cyclones are fueled by water vapor. Here we estimate the oceanic evaporation within an Atlantic hurricane to be less than one sixth of the total moisture flux precipitating over the same area. So how does the hurricane get the remaining water vapor? Our analysis of TRMM rainfall, MERRA atmospheric moisture and hurricane translation velocities suggests that access to water vapor relies on the hurricane's motion -- as it moves through the atmosphere, the hurricane consumes the water vapor it encounters. This depletion of atmospheric moisture by the hurricane leaves a "dry footprint" of suppressed rainfall in its wake. The thermodynamic efficiency of hurricanes -- defined as kinetic energy production divided by total latent heat release associated with the atmospheric moisture supply -- remains several times lower than Carnot efficiency even in the most intense hurricanes. Thus, maximum observed hurricane power cannot be explained by the thermodynamic Carnot limit.

  9. Energy and water budgets of larks in a life history perspective : Parental effort varies with aridity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tieleman, BI; Williams, JB; Visser, GH

    We compared physiological, demographic, and ecological variables of larks to gain insights into life history variation along an aridity gradient, incorporating phylogenetic relationships in analyses when appropriate. Quantifying field metabolic rate (FMR). and water influx rate (WIR) of parents

  10. Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

    2013-01-01

    Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period

  11. Public Health and Budget Impact of Probiotics on Common Respiratory Tract Infections: A Modelling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; Gerlier, Laetitia; Bresson, Jean-Louis; Le Pen, Claude; Berdeaux, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Two recent meta-analyses by the York Health Economics Consortium (YHEC) and Cochrane demonstrated probiotic efficacy in reducing the duration and number of common respiratory tract infections (CRTI) and associated antibiotic prescriptions. A health-economic analysis was undertaken to estimate the public health and budget consequences of a generalized probiotic consumption in France. Methods A virtual age- and gender-standardized population was generated using a Markov microsimulation model. CRTI risk factors incorporated into this model were age, active/passive smoking and living in a community setting. Incidence rates and resource utilization were based on the 2011-2012 flu season and retrieved from the French GPs Sentinelles network. Results of both meta-analyses were independently applied to the French population to estimate CRTI events, assuming a generalized probiotic use compared to no probiotics during winter months: -0.77 days/CRTI episode (YHEC scenario) or odds-ratio 0.58 for ≥1 CRTI episode (Cochrane scenario) with vs. without probiotics. Economic perspectives were National Health System (NHS), society, family. Outcomes included cost savings related to the reduced numbers of CRTI episodes, days of illness, number of antibiotic courses, sick leave days, medical and indirect costs. Results For France, generalized probiotic use would save 2.4 million CRTI-days, 291,000 antibiotic courses and 581,000 sick leave days, based on YHEC data. Applying the Cochrane data, reductions were 6.6 million CRTI days, 473,000 antibiotic courses and 1.5 million sick days. From the NHS perspective, probiotics’ economic impact was about €14.6 million saved according to YHEC and €37.7 million according to Cochrane. Higher savings were observed in children, active smokers and people with more frequent human contacts. Conclusions Public health and budget impact of probiotics are substantial, whether they reduce CRTI episodes frequency or duration. Noteworthy

  12. Public health and budget impact of probiotics on common respiratory tract infections: a modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Lenoir-Wijnkoop

    Full Text Available Two recent meta-analyses by the York Health Economics Consortium (YHEC and Cochrane demonstrated probiotic efficacy in reducing the duration and number of common respiratory tract infections (CRTI and associated antibiotic prescriptions. A health-economic analysis was undertaken to estimate the public health and budget consequences of a generalized probiotic consumption in France.A virtual age- and gender-standardized population was generated using a Markov microsimulation model. CRTI risk factors incorporated into this model were age, active/passive smoking and living in a community setting. Incidence rates and resource utilization were based on the 2011-2012 flu season and retrieved from the French GPs Sentinelles network. Results of both meta-analyses were independently applied to the French population to estimate CRTI events, assuming a generalized probiotic use compared to no probiotics during winter months: -0.77 days/CRTI episode (YHEC scenario or odds-ratio 0.58 for ≥1 CRTI episode (Cochrane scenario with vs. without probiotics. Economic perspectives were National Health System (NHS, society, family. Outcomes included cost savings related to the reduced numbers of CRTI episodes, days of illness, number of antibiotic courses, sick leave days, medical and indirect costs.For France, generalized probiotic use would save 2.4 million CRTI-days, 291,000 antibiotic courses and 581,000 sick leave days, based on YHEC data. Applying the Cochrane data, reductions were 6.6 million CRTI days, 473,000 antibiotic courses and 1.5 million sick days. From the NHS perspective, probiotics' economic impact was about €14.6 million saved according to YHEC and €37.7 million according to Cochrane. Higher savings were observed in children, active smokers and people with more frequent human contacts.Public health and budget impact of probiotics are substantial, whether they reduce CRTI episodes frequency or duration. Noteworthy, the 2011-12 winter CRTI

  13. Public health and budget impact of probiotics on common respiratory tract infections: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; Gerlier, Laetitia; Bresson, Jean-Louis; Le Pen, Claude; Berdeaux, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    Two recent meta-analyses by the York Health Economics Consortium (YHEC) and Cochrane demonstrated probiotic efficacy in reducing the duration and number of common respiratory tract infections (CRTI) and associated antibiotic prescriptions. A health-economic analysis was undertaken to estimate the public health and budget consequences of a generalized probiotic consumption in France. A virtual age- and gender-standardized population was generated using a Markov microsimulation model. CRTI risk factors incorporated into this model were age, active/passive smoking and living in a community setting. Incidence rates and resource utilization were based on the 2011-2012 flu season and retrieved from the French GPs Sentinelles network. Results of both meta-analyses were independently applied to the French population to estimate CRTI events, assuming a generalized probiotic use compared to no probiotics during winter months: -0.77 days/CRTI episode (YHEC scenario) or odds-ratio 0.58 for ≥1 CRTI episode (Cochrane scenario) with vs. without probiotics. Economic perspectives were National Health System (NHS), society, family. Outcomes included cost savings related to the reduced numbers of CRTI episodes, days of illness, number of antibiotic courses, sick leave days, medical and indirect costs. For France, generalized probiotic use would save 2.4 million CRTI-days, 291,000 antibiotic courses and 581,000 sick leave days, based on YHEC data. Applying the Cochrane data, reductions were 6.6 million CRTI days, 473,000 antibiotic courses and 1.5 million sick days. From the NHS perspective, probiotics' economic impact was about €14.6 million saved according to YHEC and €37.7 million according to Cochrane. Higher savings were observed in children, active smokers and people with more frequent human contacts. Public health and budget impact of probiotics are substantial, whether they reduce CRTI episodes frequency or duration. Noteworthy, the 2011-12 winter CRTI incidence was low

  14. Impact of Climate Change on Yields and Components of the Water and Nitrogen Budgets of Dryland Wheat Systems in the US Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, T.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.

    2016-12-01

    As part of the Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) project (funded by USDA-NIFA), a regional assessment of historical and future yields and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of dryland wheat-based cropping systems in the US Pacific Northwest is being conducted. Two issues of interest in the region are changes in the water footprint and nitrogen use of wheat-based systems as a result of climate change. These two are related to the interaction between crop performance and the partitioning of water and nitrogen budget components. They also inform the tradeoff between crop production and environmental services and the sustainability of wheat systems in the future. Computer simulation-based assessment is being done using the CropSyst cropping systems simulation model and daily weather data downscaled to a 4x4 km grid. Future weather is projected using 12 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways of future atmospheric CO2 (rcp 4.5 and rcp 8.5). The study region is divided in 3 agro-ecological classes (AECs): grain fallow, grain fallow transition and continuous cropping classes. The following rotations were included by AEC: WW - SF, WW - SW - SF and WW - SW - SP, where WW is winter wheat, SW is spring wheat, SP is spring peas, and SF is summer fallow. A typical conventional tillage (CT) cropping system in each AEC is evaluated as a baseline.

  15. Mediterranean sea water budget long-term trend inferred from salinity observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skliris, N.; Zika, J. D.; Herold, L.; Josey, S. A.; Marsh, R.

    2018-01-01

    Changes in the Mediterranean water cycle since 1950 are investigated using salinity and reanalysis based air-sea freshwater flux datasets. Salinity observations indicate a strong basin-scale multi-decadal salinification, particularly in the intermediate and deep layers. Evaporation, precipitation and river runoff variations are all shown to contribute to a very strong increase in net evaporation of order 20-30%. While large temporal uncertainties and discrepancies are found between E-P multi-decadal trend patterns in the reanalysis datasets, a more robust and spatially coherent structure of multi-decadal change is obtained for the salinity field. Salinity change implies an increase in net evaporation of 8 to 12% over 1950-2010, which is considerably lower than that suggested by air-sea freshwater flux products, but still largely exceeding estimates of global water cycle amplification. A new method based on water mass transformation theory is used to link changes in net evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea with changes in the volumetric distribution of salinity. The water mass transformation distribution in salinity coordinates suggests that the Mediterranean basin salinification is driven by changes in the regional water cycle rather than changes in salt transports at the straits.

  16. Global model simulations of the impact of ocean-going ships on aerosols, clouds, and the radiation budget

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lauer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available International shipping contributes significantly to the fuel consumption of all transport related activities. Specific emissions of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2 per kg of fuel emitted are higher than for road transport or aviation. Besides gaseous pollutants, ships also emit various types of particulate matter. The aerosol impacts the Earth's radiation budget directly by scattering and absorbing the solar and thermal radiation and indirectly by changing cloud properties. Here we use ECHAM5/MESSy1-MADE, a global climate model with detailed aerosol and cloud microphysics to study the climate impacts of international shipping. The simulations show that emissions from ships significantly increase the cloud droplet number concentration of low marine water clouds by up to 5% to 30% depending on the ship emission inventory and the geographic region. Whereas the cloud liquid water content remains nearly unchanged in these simulations, effective radii of cloud droplets decrease, leading to cloud optical thickness increase of up to 5–10%. The sensitivity of the results is estimated by using three different emission inventories for present-day conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that shipping contributes to 2.3% to 3.6% of the total sulfate burden and 0.4% to 1.4% to the total black carbon burden in the year 2000 on the global mean. In addition to changes in aerosol chemical composition, shipping increases the aerosol number concentration, e.g. up to 25% in the size range of the accumulation mode (typically >0.1 μm over the Atlantic. The total aerosol optical thickness over the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Northeastern Pacific increases by up to 8–10% depending on the emission inventory. Changes in aerosol optical thickness caused by shipping induced modification of aerosol particle number concentration and chemical composition lead to a change in the shortwave radiation budget at the top of the

  17. Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land-estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yang; Friedrichs, Marjorie A M; Wilkin, John; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Hofmann, Eileen E; Wiggert, Jerry D; Hood, Raleigh R

    2015-08-01

    The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within-estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite-derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001-2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 10(9) g N yr(-1)) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 10(9) g N yr(-1)) and buried (46 × 10(9) g N yr(-1)) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 10(9) g N yr(-1)) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50-60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf.

  18. Chesapeake Bay nitrogen fluxes derived from a land‐estuarine ocean biogeochemical modeling system: Model description, evaluation, and nitrogen budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Wilkin, John; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Hood, Raleigh R.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land‐estuarine‐ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within‐estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite‐derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001–2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen budget. The 5 year simulation was characterized by large riverine inputs of nitrogen (154 × 109 g N yr−1) split roughly 60:40 between inorganic:organic components. Much of this was denitrified (34 × 109 g N yr−1) and buried (46 × 109 g N yr−1) within the estuarine system. A positive net annual ecosystem production for the bay further contributed to a large advective export of organic nitrogen to the shelf (91 × 109 g N yr−1) and negligible inorganic nitrogen export. Interannual variability was strong, particularly for the riverine nitrogen fluxes. In years with higher than average riverine nitrogen inputs, most of this excess nitrogen (50–60%) was exported from the bay as organic nitrogen, with the remaining split between burial, denitrification, and inorganic export to the coastal ocean. In comparison to previous simulations using generic shelf biogeochemical model formulations inside the estuary, the estuarine biogeochemical model described here produced more realistic and significantly greater exports of organic nitrogen and lower exports of inorganic nitrogen to the shelf. PMID:27668137

  19. Measurements of hydroxyl and hydroperoxy radicals during CalNex-LA: Model comparisons and radical budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, S. M.; Hansen, R. F.; Dusanter, S.; Michoud, V.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W. C.; Veres, P. R.; Graus, M.; de Gouw, J. A.; Roberts, J.; Young, C.; Washenfelder, R.; Brown, S. S.; Thalman, R.; Waxman, E.; Volkamer, R.; Tsai, C.; Stutz, J.; Flynn, J. H.; Grossberg, N.; Lefer, B.; Alvarez, S. L.; Rappenglueck, B.; Mielke, L. H.; Osthoff, H. D.; Stevens, P. S.

    2016-04-01

    Measurements of hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxy (HO2*) radical concentrations were made at the Pasadena ground site during the CalNex-LA 2010 campaign using the laser-induced fluorescence-fluorescence assay by gas expansion technique. The measured concentrations of OH and HO2* exhibited a distinct weekend effect, with higher radical concentrations observed on the weekends corresponding to lower levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx). The radical measurements were compared to results from a zero-dimensional model using the Regional Atmospheric Chemical Mechanism-2 constrained by NOx and other measured trace gases. The chemical model overpredicted measured OH concentrations during the weekends by a factor of approximately 1.4 ± 0.3 (1σ), but the agreement was better during the weekdays (ratio of 1.0 ± 0.2). Model predicted HO2* concentrations underpredicted by a factor of 1.3 ± 0.2 on the weekends, while measured weekday concentrations were underpredicted by a factor of 3.0 ± 0.5. However, increasing the modeled OH reactivity to match the measured total OH reactivity improved the overall agreement for both OH and HO2* on all days. A radical budget analysis suggests that photolysis of carbonyls and formaldehyde together accounted for approximately 40% of radical initiation with photolysis of nitrous acid accounting for 30% at the measurement height and ozone photolysis contributing less than 20%. An analysis of the ozone production sensitivity reveals that during the week, ozone production was limited by volatile organic compounds throughout the day during the campaign but NOx limited during the afternoon on the weekends.

  20. A comparison of scope for growth (SFG) and dynamic energy budget (DEB) models applied to the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis)

    OpenAIRE

    Filgueira, Ramón; Rosland, R.; Grant, Jon

    2011-01-01

    Growth of Mytilus edulis was simulated using individual based models following both Scope For Growth (SFG) and Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) approaches. These models were parameterized using independent studies and calibrated for each dataset by adjusting the half-saturation coefficient of the food ingestion function term, XK, a common parameter in both approaches related to feeding behavior. Auto-calibration was carried out using an optimization tool, which provides an objective way of tuning ...

  1. Hydrogeologic framework, groundwater movement, and water budget in the Puyallup River Watershed and vicinity, Pierce and King Counties, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Wendy B.; Johnson, Kenneth H.; Savoca, Mark E.; Lane, Ron C.; Fasser, Elisabeth T.; Gendaszek, Andrew S.; Marshall, Cameron; Clothier, Burt G.; Knoedler, Eric N.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents information used to characterize the groundwater-flow system in the Puyallup River Watershed and vicinity, and includes descriptions of the geology and hydrogeologic framework; groundwater recharge and discharge; groundwater levels and flow directions; seasonal groundwater level fluctuations; interactions between aquifers and the surface-water system; and a water budget. The study area covers about 1,220 square miles in northern Pierce and southern King Counties, Washington; extends north to the Green River and Auburn Valley and southwest to the Puyallup River and adjacent uplands; and is bounded on the south and east by foothills of the Cascade Range and on the west by Puget Sound. The area is underlain by a northwest-thickening sequence of unconsolidated glacial and interglacial deposits, which overlie sedimentary and volcanic bedrock units that crop out in the foothills along the southern and eastern margin of the study area. Geologic units were grouped into 13 hydrogeologic units consisting of aquifers, confining units, and an underlying bedrock unit. A surficial hydrogeologic unit map was developed and used with well information from 1,012 drillers’ logs to construct 8 hydrogeologic sections, and unit extent and thickness maps.

  2. Water-carbon Links in a Tropical Forest: How Interbasin Groundwater Flow Affects Carbon Fluxes and Ecosystem Carbon Budgets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Genereux, David [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States); Osburn, Christopher [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States); Oberbauer, Steven [Florida Intl Univ., Miami, FL (United States); Oviedo Vargas, Diana [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States); Dierick, Diego [Florida Intl Univ., Miami, FL (United States)

    2017-03-27

    This report covers the outcomes from a quantitative, interdisciplinary field investigation of how carbon fluxes and budgets in a lowland tropical rainforest are affected by the discharge of old regional groundwater into streams, springs, and wetlands in the forest. The work was carried out in a lowland rainforest of Costa Rica, at La Selva Biological Station. The research shows that discharge of regional groundwater high in dissolved carbon dioxide represents a significant input of carbon to the rainforest "from below", an input that is on average larger than the carbon input "from above" from the atmosphere. A stream receiving discharge of regional groundwater had greatly elevated emissions of carbon dioxide (but not methane) to the overlying air, and elevated downstream export of carbon from its watershed with stream flow. The emission of deep geological carbon dioxide from stream water elevates the carbon dioxide concentrations in air above the streams. Carbon-14 tracing revealed the presence of geological carbon in the leaves and stems of some riparian plants near streams that receive inputs of regional groundwater. Also, discharge of regional groundwater is responsible for input of dissolved organic matter with distinctive chemistry to rainforest streams and wetlands. The discharge of regional groundwater in lowland surface waters has a major impact on the carbon cycle in this and likely other tropical and non-tropical forests.

  3. Role of six European tree species and land-use legacy for nitrogen and water budgets in forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis Christiansen, Jesper; Vesterdal, Lars; Callesen, Ingeborg

    2010-01-01

    Water and nutrient fluxes for single stands of different tree species have been reported in numerous studies, but comparative studies of nutrient and hydrological budgets of common European deciduous tree species are rare. Annual fluxes of water and inorganic nitrogen (N) were established in a 30...... in Denmark, Mattrup and Vallø during 2 years. Mean annual percolation below the root zone (mm yr−1±SE, n=4) ranked in the following order: maple (351±38)>lime (284±32), oak (271±25), beech (257±30), ash (307±69)≫ spruce (75±24). There were few significant tree species effects on N fluxes. However, the annual...... mean N throughfall flux (kg N ha−1 yr−1±SE, n=4) for spruce (28±2) was significantly larger than for maple (12±1), beech (11±1) and oak (9±1) stands but not different from that of lime (15±3). Ash had a low mean annual inorganic N throughfall deposition of 9.1 kg ha−1, but was only present at Mattrup...

  4. Pipe replacement in a water supply network: coordinated versus uncoordinated replacement and budget effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijk, van D.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2016-01-01

    Operators of underground water supply networks are challenged with pipe replacement
    decisions, because pipes are subject to increased failure rates as they age and financial resources
    are often limited.We study the optimal replacement time and optimal number of pipe replacements
    such

  5. MODEL OF DISTRIBUTION OF THE BUDGET OF THE PORTFOLIO OF IT PROJECTS TAKING IN-TO ACCOUNT THEIR PRIORITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita V. Sotnikova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Article is devoted to a problem of effective distribution of the general budget of a portfolio between the IT projects which are its part taking into ac-count their priority. The designated problem is actual in view of low results of activity of the consulting companies in the sphere of information technologies.For determination of priority of IT projects the method of analytical networks developed by T. Saati is used. For the purpose of application of this method the system of criteria (indicators reflecting influence of IT projects of a portfolio on the most significant purposes of implementation of IT projects of a portfolio is developed. As system of criteria the key indicators of efficiency defined when developing the Balanced system of indicators which meet above-mentioned requirements are used. The essence of a method of analytical net-works consists in paired comparison of key indicators of efficiency concerning the purpose of realization of a portfolio and IT projects which are a part of a portfolio. Result of use of a method of analytical networks are coefficients of priority of each IT project of a portfolio. The received coefficients of priority of IT projects are used in the offered model of distribution of the budget of a portfolio between IT projects. Thus, the budget of a portfolio of IT projects is distributed between them taking into account not only the income from implementation of each IT project, but also other criteria, important for the IT company, for example: the degree of compliance of the IT project to strategic objectives of the IT company defining expediency of implementation of the IT project; the term of implementation of the IT project determined by the customer. The developed model of distribution of the budget of a portfolio between IT projects is approved on the example of distribution of the budget between IT projects of the portfolio consisting of three IT projects. Taking into account the received

  6. Stochastic Still Water Response Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2002-01-01

    In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model...... water bending moment is compared to statistics from available regression formulas. It is found that the suggested model predicts a coefficient of variation of the maximum still water bending moment that is a factor of two to three times lower than that obtained by use of the regression formula. It turns...

  7. Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

    2017-06-02

    An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a

  8. Modeling the water balance of sloped vineyards under various climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hofmann Marco

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture, models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up to 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over two years. The results showed good agreement of modelled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in soil water holding capacity. The model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes.

  9. Earth radiation budget from a surface perspective and its representation in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, M.

    2012-04-01

    The genesis and evolution of Earth's climate is largely regulated by the global energy balance. Despite the central importance of the global energy balance for the climate system and climate change, substantial uncertainties still exist in the quantification of its different components, and their representation in climate models (e.g., Wild et al. 1998 Clim. Dyn., Wild 2008 Tellus). While the net radiative energy flow in and out of the climate system at the top of atmosphere (TOA) is known with considerable accuracy from new satellite programs such as CERES, much less is known about the energy distribution within the climate system and at the Earth surface. Here we use direct surface observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) to provide better constraints on the surface radiative components as well as to investigate their temporal changes. We analyze radiation budgets of the latest generation of global climate models as used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and in the upcoming Fifth IPCC assessment report (IPCCAR5). Compared to a comprehensive set of surface observations, the CMIP5 models overestimate the shortwave radiation incident at the surface by 5-10 Wm-2 on average, due to a lack of absorption in the atmosphere. This suggests that the best estimate for the global mean absorbed shortwave radiation at the surface should be lower than the simulated estimates, which are on average slightly below 170 Wm-2, so that a value of no more than 160 Wm-2 might be the most realistic estimate for the global mean absorbed shortwave radiation at the surface. In contrast, the longwave downward radiation at the surface is underestimated by a similar amount in these models, suggesting that the best estimate for the global mean downward longwave radiation should be rather around 345 Wm-2 than the model average of 338 Wm-2. There is further increasing evidence from the direct

  10. Global atmospheric sulfur budget under volcanically quiescent conditions: Aerosol-chemistry-climate model predictions and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheng, Jian-Xiong; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Luo, Bei-Ping; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Anet, Julien; Bingemer, Heinz; Peter, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The global atmospheric sulfur budget and its emission dependence have been investigated using the coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AER. The aerosol module comprises gaseous and aqueous sulfur chemistry and comprehensive microphysics. The particle distribution is resolved by 40 size bins spanning radii from 0.39 nm to 3.2 μm, including size-dependent particle composition. Aerosol radiative properties required by the climate model are calculated online from the aerosol module. The model successfully reproduces main features of stratospheric aerosols under nonvolcanic conditions, including aerosol extinctions compared to Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) and Halogen Occultation Experiment, and size distributions compared to in situ measurements. The calculated stratospheric aerosol burden is 109 Gg of sulfur, matching the SAGE II-based estimate (112 Gg). In terms of fluxes through the tropopause, the stratospheric aerosol layer is due to about 43% primary tropospheric aerosol, 28% SO2, 23% carbonyl sulfide (OCS), 4% H2S, and 2% dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Turning off emissions of the short-lived species SO2, H2S, and DMS shows that OCS alone still establishes about 56% of the original stratospheric aerosol burden. Further sensitivity simulations reveal that anticipated increases in anthropogenic SO2 emissions in China and India have a larger influence on stratospheric aerosols than the same increase in Western Europe or the U.S., due to deep convection in the western Pacific region. However, even a doubling of Chinese and Indian emissions is predicted to increase the stratospheric background aerosol burden only by 9%. In contrast, small to moderate volcanic eruptions, such as that of Nabro in 2011, may easily double the stratospheric aerosol loading.

  11. Ground-Atmosphere Interactions at Gale: Determination of the Surface Energy Budget, Thermal Inertia and Water Sorption on the Regolith

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, German; Renno, Nilton; Fischer, Erik; Borlina, Caue; Hallet, Bernard; De la Torre Juarez, Manuel; Vasavada, Aswhin; Gomez-Elvira, Javier

    2014-05-01

    The analysis of the Surface Energy Budget (SEB) yields insights into the local climate and the soil-atmosphere interactions, while the analysis of the thermal inertia of the shallow subsurface augments surface observations, providing information about the local geology. The Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer and the Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System have measured near subsurface thermal inertia from orbit at scales of ~104 m2 to ~10 km2. Here we report analysis of the thermal inertia at a few locations at Gale Crater at scales of 100 m2. The thermal inertia is calculated by solving the heat conduction equation in the soil using hourly measurements by the Rover Environmental Station (REMS) ground temperature sensor as an upper boundary condition. Three Sols representative of different environmental conditions and soil properties, namely, Sol 82 at Rocknest (RCK), Sol 112 at Point Lake (PL) and Sol 139 at Yellowknife Bay (YKB) are analyzed in detail. The largest thermal inertia (I) value is found at YKB, I = 445 J m-2 K-1 s-1/2 or 445 tiu (thermal inertia unit), followed by PL with I= 300 tiu and RCK withI = 280 tiu [1]. These values are consistent with the type of terrain imaged by MastCam and with previous satellite estimates at Gale Crater [2,3]. The SEB is calculated by using all REMS data products as well as dust opacity values derived from MastCam measurements, whereas previously, the SEB has been calculated using numerical models only [4]. At each location and during the daytime, the SEB is dominated by the downwelling shortwave (SW) solar radiation (~450-500 W/m2) and the upwelling longwave (LW) radiation emitted by the surface (~300-400 W/m2). The sum of these two terms accounts for at least 70% of the net surface heating rate between 0900 and 1400 local solar time. At nighttime, the SEB is dominated by the upwelling LW radiation emitted by the surface (~50-100 W/m2) and the downwelling LW radiation from the atmosphere (~50 W/m2

  12. Modeling Water Filtration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Melissa

    2014-01-01

    Model-eliciting activities (MEAs) are not new to those in engineering or mathematics, but they were new to Melissa Parks. Model-eliciting activities are simulated real-world problems that integrate engineering, mathematical, and scientific thinking as students find solutions for specific scenarios. During this process, students generate solutions…

  13. Exploring the Dynamics and Modeling National Budget as a Supply Chain System: A Proposal for Reengineering the Budgeting Process and for Developing a Management Flight Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Keynesian and the Balanced-Budget case. Finally, a general framework of forming, implementing auditing budgets is initialized and, using the...are other activities that are associated with the implementation stage. Lastly, the review stage consists of all the actions related to audits ...process, which can be proved as a “futile and hopeless labour ” (Olivares-Caminal, 2010). However, previous experience of defaults (i.e. Argentina

  14. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used throughout the world for planning, analysis and design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban areas.

  15. System Budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Palle

    1996-01-01

    The lecture note is aimed at introducing system budgets for optical communication systems. It treats optical fiber communication systems (six generations), system design, bandwidth effects, other system impairments and optical amplifiers.......The lecture note is aimed at introducing system budgets for optical communication systems. It treats optical fiber communication systems (six generations), system design, bandwidth effects, other system impairments and optical amplifiers....

  16. DCS Budget Tracking System

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — DCS Budget Tracking System database contains budget information for the Information Technology budget and the 'Other Objects' budget. This data allows for monitoring...

  17. A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB model to describe Laternula elliptica (King, 1832 seasonal feeding and metabolism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Agüera

    Full Text Available Antarctic marine organisms are adapted to an extreme environment, characterized by a very low but stable temperature and a strong seasonality in food availability arousing from variations in day length. Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global climate change with some regions being impacted by temperature increase and changes in primary production. Climate change also affects the biotic components of marine ecosystems and has an impact on the distribution and seasonal physiology of Antarctic marine organisms. Knowledge on the impact of climate change in key species is highly important because their performance affects ecosystem functioning. To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems, a holistic understanding of the life history and physiology of Antarctic key species is urgently needed. DEB (Dynamic Energy Budget theory captures the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model is a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. In this study, we estimate the DEB model parameters for the bivalve Laternula elliptica using literature-extracted and field data. The DEB model we present here aims at better understanding the biology of L. elliptica and its levels of adaptation to its habitat with a special focus on food seasonality. The model parameters describe a metabolism specifically adapted to low temperatures, with a low maintenance cost and a high capacity to uptake and mobilise energy, providing this organism with a level of energetic performance matching that of related species from temperate regions. It was also found that L. elliptica has a large energy reserve that allows enduring long periods of starvation. Additionally, we applied DEB parameters to time-series data on biological traits (organism condition, gonad growth to describe the

  18. A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model to describe Laternula elliptica (King, 1832) seasonal feeding and metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agüera, Antonio; Ahn, In-Young; Guillaumot, Charlène; Danis, Bruno

    2017-01-01

    Antarctic marine organisms are adapted to an extreme environment, characterized by a very low but stable temperature and a strong seasonality in food availability arousing from variations in day length. Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global climate change with some regions being impacted by temperature increase and changes in primary production. Climate change also affects the biotic components of marine ecosystems and has an impact on the distribution and seasonal physiology of Antarctic marine organisms. Knowledge on the impact of climate change in key species is highly important because their performance affects ecosystem functioning. To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems, a holistic understanding of the life history and physiology of Antarctic key species is urgently needed. DEB (Dynamic Energy Budget) theory captures the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model is a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. In this study, we estimate the DEB model parameters for the bivalve Laternula elliptica using literature-extracted and field data. The DEB model we present here aims at better understanding the biology of L. elliptica and its levels of adaptation to its habitat with a special focus on food seasonality. The model parameters describe a metabolism specifically adapted to low temperatures, with a low maintenance cost and a high capacity to uptake and mobilise energy, providing this organism with a level of energetic performance matching that of related species from temperate regions. It was also found that L. elliptica has a large energy reserve that allows enduring long periods of starvation. Additionally, we applied DEB parameters to time-series data on biological traits (organism condition, gonad growth) to describe the effect of a

  19. Morphology-dependent water budgets and nutrient fluxes in arctic thaw ponds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Joshua C.; Gurney, Kirsty; Wipfli, Mark S.

    2014-01-01

    Thaw ponds on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska are productive ecosystems, providing habitat and food resources for many fish and bird species. Permafrost in this region creates unique pond morphologies: deep troughs, shallow low-centred polygons (LCPs) and larger coalescent ponds. By monitoring seasonal trends in pond volume and chemistry, we evaluated whether pond morphology and size affect water temperature and desiccation, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) fluxes. Evaporation was the largest early-summer water flux in all pond types. LCPs dried quickly and displayed high early-summer nutrient concentrations and losses. Troughs consistently received solute-rich subsurface inflows, which accounted for 12 to 42 per cent of their volume and may explain higher P in the troughs. N to P ratios increased and ammonium concentrations decreased with pond volume, suggesting that P and inorganic N availability may limit ecosystem productivity in older, larger ponds. Arctic summer temperatures will likely increase in the future, which may accelerate mid-summer desiccation. Given their morphology, troughs may remain wet, become warmer and derive greater nutrient loads from their thawing banks. Overall, seasonal- to decadal-scale warming may increase ecosystem productivity in troughs relative to other Arctic Coastal Plain ponds. 

  20. A comparison of estimates of basin-scale soil-moisture evapotranspiration and estimates of riparian groundwater evapotranspiration with implications for water budgets in the Verde Valley, Central Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Fred; Wiele, Stephen M.; Pool, Donald R.

    2015-01-01

    Population growth in the Verde Valley in Arizona has led to efforts to better understand water availability in the watershed. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a substantial component of the water budget and a critical factor in estimating groundwater recharge in the area. In this study, four estimates of ET are compared and discussed with applications to the Verde Valley. Higher potential ET (PET) rates from the soil-water balance (SWB) recharge model resulted in an average annual ET volume about 17% greater than for ET from the basin characteristics (BCM) recharge model. Annual BCM PET volume, however, was greater by about a factor of 2 or more than SWB actual ET (AET) estimates, which are used in the SWB model to estimate groundwater recharge. ET also was estimated using a method that combines MODIS-EVI remote sensing data and geospatial information and by the MODFLOW-EVT ET package as part of a regional groundwater-flow model that includes the study area. Annual ET volumes were about same for upper-bound MODIS-EVI ET for perennial streams as for the MODFLOW ET estimates, with the small differences between the two methods having minimal impact on annual or longer groundwater budgets for the study area.

  1. Characteristics of Heat and Water Budget of Arctic Permafrost Sites: Dominant Processes and Observed Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boike, Julia

    2010-05-01

    Permafrost plays a significant role in the land surface energy and moisture balance, and thus in the climate and hydrologic system. The goal of our group is to establish spatial and temporal linkages between water and energy fluxes at the plot and landscape scales at different permafrost affected ecosystems. We chose typical Arctic ecosystems spanning contrasting bioclimatic zones with different climate and landcover conditions: (i) warm, maritime conditions with low above ground biomass (Spitsbergen) and (ii) cold, continental conditions with medium biomass (Lena River Delta, Siberia) and (iii) medium to cold continental conditions with high biomass (upper Lena-Viluiy catchment). At these sites, weather stations have been operated for at least 10 years. Spitsbergen has a mild, maritime winter climate due to the influence of the Atlantic currents and is underlain by warm permafrost (mean annual ground temp. (MAGT): -2.9 °C; mean annual air temp. (MAAT): -6.3°C). Warming is observed in permafrost temperatures, due to recently warmer winter air temperature and an increase of snow depth. The island Samoylov located in the Lena River Delta is characterized by wetland polygonal tundra, thermokarst lakes and cold permafrost (MAGT: -9.2 °C, MAAT: -13.6°C). Latent heat fluxes, such as sublimation of snow during spring and evapotranspiration during the summer are important components of the energy balance. Overall, the water balance is more or less equilibrated, i.e. the precipitation (rain and snow) input equals loss through evapotranspiration. Only during years of extreme dryness, where summer evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation, the pond water level falls below the ground surface. The study site in Central Yakutia shows a 30 yr warming trend with an increase of about 0.1 °C/year. Summer and winter precipitation shows a large spatial and temporal variability, with an increase at most stations. The analysis of satellite images using Landsat and Soyus data shows

  2. Recent climatic changes and their impacts on energy and water budgets over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, K.; Qin, J.; Tang, W.; Guo, X.

    2011-12-01

    Since the early of 1980s, the TP surfaces have been experiencing an overall rapid warming and wetting while wind speed and sunshine duration have been declining. This paper reviews recent progress in Tibetan Plateau (TP) climate changes studies. First, the surface warming rate shows clear increases from 3000 m to 4800 m ASL, and then becomes quite stable with a slight decline near the highest elevations. This altitudinal dependence of the warming rate has a significant implication for TP water resources and environmental changes, since most glaciers and snow surfaces are located above 5000 m ASL over the TP (refer to: Qin et al., 2009, Climatic Change, 97, 321-327). Second, an obvious transition from brightening to dimming around 1978 is found over the TP, and the dimming has been continued up to now. This transition is different from the average status of whole China, where solar radiation reached a stable level since the 1990s. As aerosol loads are very low over TP, this difference indicates that the importance of cloud changes in altering solar radiation may be comparable to or even exceed that of the aerosol changes (refer to: Tang et al., 2011, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 393-406). Third, a state-of-the-art estimate of atmospheric heating source over the TP, which enhances the Asian monsoon, indicates that sensible heat, radiative convergence, and the total heat source have decreased since the 1980s, but their weakening trends were overestimated in a recent study (refer to: Yang et al., 2011, Journal of Climate, 24, 1525-1541). Last, surface water balance has been changed in recent decades. Observed precipitation shows insignificant increasing trends in central TP and decreasing trends along the TP periphery while evaporation shows overall increasing trends, leading to decreased discharge at major TP water resource areas (semi-humid and humid zones in the eastern and southern TP). The increase of evaporation is approximately consistent with the decrease of

  3. Identifying influences on model uncertainty: an application using a forest carbon budget model

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2001-01-01

    Uncertainty is an important consideration for both developers and users of environmental simulation models. Establishing quantitative estimates of uncertainty for deterministic models can be difficult when the underlying bases for such information are scarce. We demonstrate an application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis that provides for refinements in...

  4. Improved predictive ability of climate-human-behaviour interactions with modifications to the COMFA outdoor energy budget model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanos, J. K.; Warland, J. S.; Gillespie, T. J.; Kenny, N. A.

    2012-11-01

    The purpose of this paper is to implement current and novel research techniques in human energy budget estimations to give more accurate and efficient application of models by a variety of users. Using the COMFA model, the conditioning level of an individual is incorporated into overall energy budget predictions, giving more realistic estimations of the metabolism experienced at various fitness levels. Through the use of VO2 reserve estimates, errors are found when an elite athlete is modelled as an unconditioned or a conditioned individual, giving budgets underpredicted significantly by -173 and -123 W m-2, respectively. Such underprediction can result in critical errors regarding heat stress, particularly in highly motivated individuals; thus this revision is critical for athletic individuals. A further improvement in the COMFA model involves improved adaptation of clothing insulation ( I cl), as well clothing non-uniformity, with changing air temperature ( T a) and metabolic activity ( M act). Equivalent T a values (for I cl estimation) are calculated in order to lower the I cl value with increasing M act at equal T a. Furthermore, threshold T a values are calculated to predict the point at which an individual will change from a uniform I cl to a segmented I cl (full ensemble to shorts and a T-shirt). Lastly, improved relative velocity ( v r) estimates were found with a refined equation accounting for the degree angle of wind to body movement. Differences between the original and improved v r equations increased with higher wind and activity speeds, and as the wind to body angle moved away from 90°. Under moderate microclimate conditions, and wind from behind a person, the convective heat loss and skin temperature estimates were 47 W m-2 and 1.7°C higher when using the improved v r equation. These model revisions improve the applicability and usability of the COMFA energy budget model for subjects performing physical activity in outdoor environments

  5. River water quality modelling: II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shanahan, P.; Henze, Mogens; Koncsos, L.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. EPA QUAL2E model is currently the standard for river water quality modelling. While QUAL2E is adequate for the regulatory situation for which it was developed (the U.S. wasteload allocation process), there is a need for a more comprehensive framework for research and teaching. Moreover......, and to achieve robust model calibration. Mass balance problems arise from failure to account for mass in the sediment as well as in the water column and due to the fundamental imprecision of BOD as a state variable. (C) 1998 IAWQ Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  6. Growth potential of blue mussels (M. edulis) exposed to different salinities evaluated by a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maar, Marie; Saurel, Camille; Landes, Anja

    2015-01-01

    For bluemussels,Mytilus edulis, onemajor constrain in the Baltic Sea is the low salinities that reduce the efficiency of mussel production. However, the effects of living in low and variable salinity regimes are rarely considered in models describing mussel growth. The aim of the present study...... was to incorporate the effects of low salinity into an eco-physiological model of blue mussels and to identify areas suitable for mussel production. A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model was modified with respect to i) the morphological parameters (DW/WW-ratio, shape factor), ii) change in ingestion rate and iii...

  7. Dynamic energy budget theory meets individual-based modelling: a generic and accessible implementation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martin, B.; Zimmer, E.; Grimm, V.; Jager, T.

    2012-01-01

    1.Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory was designed to understand the dynamics of biological systems from cells to populations and ecosystems via a mass balance approach of individuals. However, most work so far has focused on the level of the individual. To encourage further use of DEB theory in a

  8. An energy budget agent-based model of earthworm populations and its application to study the effects of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, A S A; Hodson, M E; Thorbek, P; Alvarez, T; Sibly, R M

    2014-05-24

    Earthworms are important organisms in soil communities and so are used as model organisms in environmental risk assessments of chemicals. However current risk assessments of soil invertebrates are based on short-term laboratory studies, of limited ecological relevance, supplemented if necessary by site-specific field trials, which sometimes are challenging to apply across the whole agricultural landscape. Here, we investigate whether population responses to environmental stressors and pesticide exposure can be accurately predicted by combining energy budget and agent-based models (ABMs), based on knowledge of how individuals respond to their local circumstances. A simple energy budget model was implemented within each earthworm Eisenia fetida in the ABM, based on a priori parameter estimates. From broadly accepted physiological principles, simple algorithms specify how energy acquisition and expenditure drive life cycle processes. Each individual allocates energy between maintenance, growth and/or reproduction under varying conditions of food density, soil temperature and soil moisture. When simulating published experiments, good model fits were obtained to experimental data on individual growth, reproduction and starvation. Using the energy budget model as a platform we developed methods to identify which of the physiological parameters in the energy budget model (rates of ingestion, maintenance, growth or reproduction) are primarily affected by pesticide applications, producing four hypotheses about how toxicity acts. We tested these hypotheses by comparing model outputs with published toxicity data on the effects of copper oxychloride and chlorpyrifos on E. fetida. Both growth and reproduction were directly affected in experiments in which sufficient food was provided, whilst maintenance was targeted under food limitation. Although we only incorporate toxic effects at the individual level we show how ABMs can readily extrapolate to larger scales by providing

  9. Effect of copper on the growth of shrimps Litopenaeus vannamei: water parameters and copper budget in a recirculating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Bo; Liu, Ying; Yang, Hongsheng; Song, Yi; Li, Xian

    2014-09-01

    Shrimps ( Litopenaeus vannamei) were intensively cultured in a recirculating aquaculture system for 98 days to investigate effects of 0.3 mg/L Cu on its performance, Cu budget, and Cu distribution. Shrimps in Cu-treated systems had greater mean final weight (11.10 vs 10.50 g), body length (107.23 vs 106.42 mm), survival rate (67.80% vs 66.40%), and yield (6.42 vs 5.99 kg/m3), and lower feed conversion ratio (1.20 vs 1.29) than those in control systems but the differences were not significant. Vibrio numbers remained stable (104-106 colony forming units/mL) in the rearing tanks of both control and treated systems. Total ammonium-N, nitrite-N, nitrate-N, pH, chemical oxygen demand, 5-day carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, and total suspended solids were similar in controls and treatments. Dissolved Cu concentration in the treated systems decreased from 0.284 to 0.089 mg/L while in the control systems it increased from 0.006 2 to 0.018 mg/L. The main sources of Cu in the treated systems were the artificially added component (75.7% of total input), shrimp feed (21.0%), water (2.06%), and shrimp biomass (1.22%). The major outputs of Cu occurred via the mechanical filter (41.7%), water renewal (15.6%), and draining of the sediment trap (15.1%). The foam fractionator removed only 0.69% of total Cu input. Harvested shrimp biomass accounted for 11.68% of Cu input. The Cu concentration of shrimps in the Cu-treated systems (30.70 mg/kg wet weight) was significantly higher than that in control systems (22.02 mg/kg). Both were below the maximum permissible concentration (50 mg/kg) for Cu in seafood for human consumption in China. Therefore, recirculating systems can be used for commercial on-growing of Litopenaeus vannamei without loss of shrimp quality, even in water polluted by 0.30 mg/L Cu. The mechanical filter is the main route for Cu removal.

  10. Global budget of tropospheric ozone: Evaluating recent model advances with satellite (OMI), aircraft (IAGOS), and ozonesonde observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Lu; Jacob, Daniel J.; Liu, Xiong; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Lin; Kim, Patrick S.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yantosca, Robert M.

    2017-10-01

    The global budget of tropospheric ozone is governed by a complicated ensemble of coupled chemical and dynamical processes. Simulation of tropospheric ozone has been a major focus of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) over the past 20 years, and many developments over the years have affected the model representation of the ozone budget. Here we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the standard version of GEOS-Chem (v10-01) with ozone observations from ozonesondes, the OMI satellite instrument, and MOZAIC-IAGOS commercial aircraft for 2012-2013. Global validation of the OMI 700-400 hPa data with ozonesondes shows that OMI maintained persistent high quality and no significant drift over the 2006-2013 period. GEOS-Chem shows no significant seasonal or latitudinal bias relative to OMI and strong correlations in all seasons on the 2° × 2.5° horizontal scale (r = 0.88-0.95), improving on previous model versions. The most pronounced model bias revealed by ozonesondes and MOZAIC-IAGOS is at high northern latitudes in winter-spring where the model is 10-20 ppbv too low. This appears to be due to insufficient stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Model updates to lightning NOx, Asian anthropogenic emissions, bromine chemistry, isoprene chemistry, and meteorological fields over the past decade have overall led to gradual increase in the simulated global tropospheric ozone burden and more active ozone production and loss. From simulations with different versions of GEOS meteorological fields we find that tropospheric ozone in GEOS-Chem v10-01 has a global production rate of 4960-5530 Tg a-1, lifetime of 20.9-24.2 days, burden of 345-357 Tg, and STE of 325-492 Tg a-1. Change in the intensity of tropical deep convection between these different meteorological fields is a major factor driving differences in the ozone budget.

  11. Water Distribution and Removal Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y. Deng; N. Chipman; E.L. Hardin

    2005-08-26

    The design of the Yucca Mountain high level radioactive waste repository depends on the performance of the engineered barrier system (EBS). To support the total system performance assessment (TSPA), the Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport Process Model Report (EBS PMR) is developed to describe the thermal, mechanical, chemical, hydrological, biological, and radionuclide transport processes within the emplacement drifts, which includes the following major analysis/model reports (AMRs): (1) EBS Water Distribution and Removal (WD&R) Model; (2) EBS Physical and Chemical Environment (P&CE) Model; (3) EBS Radionuclide Transport (EBS RNT) Model; and (4) EBS Multiscale Thermohydrologic (TH) Model. Technical information, including data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documents will be provided to defend the applicability of these models for their intended purpose of evaluating the postclosure performance of the Yucca Mountain repository system. The WD&R model ARM is important to the site recommendation. Water distribution and removal represents one component of the overall EBS. Under some conditions, liquid water will seep into emplacement drifts through fractures in the host rock and move generally downward, potentially contacting waste packages. After waste packages are breached by corrosion, some of this seepage water will contact the waste, dissolve or suspend radionuclides, and ultimately carry radionuclides through the EBS to the near-field host rock. Lateral diversion of liquid water within the drift will occur at the inner drift surface, and more significantly from the operation of engineered structures such as drip shields and the outer surface of waste packages. If most of the seepage flux can be diverted laterally and removed from the drifts before contacting the wastes, the release of radionuclides from the EBS can be controlled, resulting in a proportional reduction in dose release at the accessible environment. The purposes

  12. Flow based vs. demand based energy-water modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozos, Evangelos; Nikolopoulos, Dionysis; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koukouvinos, Antonios; Makropoulos, Christos

    2015-04-01

    The water flow in hydro-power generation systems is often used downstream to cover other type of demands like irrigation and water supply. However, the typical case is that the energy demand (operation of hydro-power plant) and the water demand do not coincide. Furthermore, the water inflow into a reservoir is a stochastic process. Things become more complicated if renewable resources (wind-turbines or photovoltaic panels) are included into the system. For this reason, the assessment and optimization of the operation of hydro-power systems are challenging tasks that require computer modelling. This modelling should not only simulate the water budget of the reservoirs and the energy production/consumption (pumped-storage), but should also take into account the constraints imposed by the natural or artificial water network using a flow routing algorithm. HYDRONOMEAS, for example, uses an elegant mathematical approach (digraph) to calculate the flow in a water network based on: the demands (input timeseries), the water availability (simulated) and the capacity of the transmission components (properties of channels, rivers, pipes, etc.). The input timeseries of demand should be estimated by another model and linked to the corresponding network nodes. A model that could be used to estimate these timeseries is UWOT. UWOT is a bottom up urban water cycle model that simulates the generation, aggregation and routing of water demand signals. In this study, we explore the potentials of UWOT in simulating the operation of complex hydrosystems that include energy generation. The evident advantage of this approach is the use of a single model instead of one for estimation of demands and another for the system simulation. An application of UWOT in a large scale system is attempted in mainland Greece in an area extending over 130×170 km². The challenges, the peculiarities and the advantages of this approach are examined and critically discussed.

  13. Public Health and Budget Impact of Probiotics on Common Respiratory Tract Infections: A Modelling Study

    OpenAIRE

    Irene Lenoir-Wijnkoop; Laetitia Gerlier; Jean-Louis Bresson; Claude Le Pen; Gilles Berdeaux

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Two recent meta-analyses by the York Health Economics Consortium (YHEC) and Cochrane demonstrated probiotic efficacy in reducing the duration and number of common respiratory tract infections (CRTI) and associated antibiotic prescriptions. A health-economic analysis was undertaken to estimate the public health and budget consequences of a generalized probiotic consumption in France. Methods A virtual age- and gender-standardized population was generated using a Markov microsimulati...

  14. Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getirana, Augusto C. V.; Dutra, Emanuel; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Kam, Jonghun; Li, Hong-Yi; Decharme, Bertrand; Zhang, Zhengqiu; Ducharne, Agnes; Boone, Aaron; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; hide

    2014-01-01

    Despite recent advances in land surfacemodeling and remote sensing, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-ofthe- art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables (terrestrial water storage TWS, evapotranspiration ET, surface runoff R, and base flow B) are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 18 spatial resolution were used to run 14 LSMs. Precipitation datasets that have been rescaled to matchmonthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) andGlobal Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) datasets and the daily Hydrologie du Bassin de l'Amazone (HYBAM) dataset were used to perform three experiments. The Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme was forced with R and B and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration datasets andGravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE)TWSestimates in two subcatchments of main tributaries (Madeira and Negro Rivers).At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39 to 3.26 mm day(exp -1) and a low spatial correlation between ET and precipitation indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget components vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation dataset, but simulated TWS generally agrees with GRACE estimates at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using HYBAM, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network and the rescaling at a finer temporal scale.

  15. Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang Wei; Timothy E. Link; Andrew T. Hudak; John D. Marshall; Kathleen L. Kavanagh; John T. Abatzoglou; Hang Zhou; Robert E. Pangle; Gerald N. Flerchinger

    2016-01-01

    Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long-term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal...

  16. Modelling canopy radiation budget through multiple scattering approximation: a case study of coniferous forest in Mexico City Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silván-Cárdenas, Jose L.; Corona-Romero, Nirani

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we describe some results from a study on hyperspectral analysis of coniferous canopy scattering for the purpose of estimating forest biophysical and structural parameters. Georeferenced airborne hyperspectral measurements were taken from a flying helicopter over a coniferous forest dominated by Pinus hartweguii and Abies religiosa within the Federal District Conservation Land in Mexico City. Hyperspectral data was recorded in the optical range from 350 to 2500 nm at 1nm spectral resolution using the FieldSpec 4 (ASD Inc.). Spectral measurements were also carried out in the ground for vegetation and understory components, including leaf, bark, soil and grass. Measurements were then analyzed through a previously developed multiple scattering approximation (MSA) model, which represents above-canopy spectral reflectance through a non-linear combination of pure spectral components (endmembers), as well as through a set of photon recollision probabilities and interceptance fractions. In this paper we provide an expression for the canopy absorptance as the basis for estimating the components of canopy radiation budget using the MSA model. Furthermore, since MSA does not prescribe a priori the endmembers to incorporate in the model, a multiple endmember selection method (MESMSA) was developed and tested. Photon recollision probabilities and interceptance fractions were estimated by fitting the model to airborne spectral reflectance and selected endmembers where then used to estimate the canopy radiation budget at each measured location.

  17. A mathematical model for maximizing the value of phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating budget constraints and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Nitin R; Ankolekar, Suresh; Antonijevic, Zoran; Rajicic, Natasa

    2013-05-10

    We describe a value-driven approach to optimizing pharmaceutical portfolios. Our approach incorporates inputs from research and development and commercial functions by simultaneously addressing internal and external factors. This approach differentiates itself from current practices in that it recognizes the impact of study design parameters, sample size in particular, on the portfolio value. We develop an integer programming (IP) model as the basis for Bayesian decision analysis to optimize phase 3 development portfolios using expected net present value as the criterion. We show how this framework can be used to determine optimal sample sizes and trial schedules to maximize the value of a portfolio under budget constraints. We then illustrate the remarkable flexibility of the IP model to answer a variety of 'what-if' questions that reflect situations that arise in practice. We extend the IP model to a stochastic IP model to incorporate uncertainty in the availability of drugs from earlier development phases for phase 3 development in the future. We show how to use stochastic IP to re-optimize the portfolio development strategy over time as new information accumulates and budget changes occur. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. A project summary: Water and energy budget assessment for a non-tidal wetland in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, F.E.; Snyder, R.L.; Paw, U.K.T.; Drexler, J.Z.

    2004-01-01

    The methods used to obtain universal cover coefficient (Kc) values for a non-tidal restored wetland in the Sacramento-San Joaquin river delta, US, during the summer of the year 2002 and to investigate possible differences during changing wind patterns are described. A micrometeorological tower over the wetland was established to quantify actual evapotranspiration (ETa) rates and surface energy fluxes for water and energy budget analysis. The eddy-covariance (EC) system was used to measure the surface energy budget data in the period from May 23 to November 6, 2002. The results show that K c values should be lower during westerly than northerly wind events during the midseason period due to the reduced vapor pressure deficit.

  19. Impact of the Hoa Binh dam (Vietnam) on water and sediment budgets in the Red River basin and delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinh, V. D.; Ouillon, S.; Thanh, T. D.; Chu, L. V.

    2014-10-01

    The Hoa Binh dam (HBD), located on a tributary of the Red River in Vietnam, has a capacity of 9.45 × 109 m3 and was commissioned in December 1988. Although it is important for flood prevention, electricity production and irrigation in northern Vietnam, the Hoa Binh dam has also highly influenced the suspended sediment distribution in the lower Red River basin, in the delta and in the coastal zone. Its impact was analysed from a 50-year data set of water discharge and suspended sediment concentration (1960-2010), and the distribution of water and sediment across the nine mouths of the delta was simulated using the MIKE11 numerical model before and after the dam settlement. Although water discharge at the delta inlet decreased by only 9%, the yearly suspended sediment flux dropped, on average, by 61% at Son Tay near Hanoi (from 119 to 46 × 106 t yr-1). Along the coast, reduced sedimentation rates are coincident with the lower sediment delivery observed since the impoundment of the Hoa Binh dam. Water regulation has led to decreased water discharge in the wet season (-14% in the Red River at Son Tay) and increased water discharge in the dry season (+12% at the same station). The ratios of water and suspended sediment flows, as compared to the total flows in the nine mouths, increased in the northern and southern estuaries and decreased in the central, main Ba Lat mouth. The increasing volume of dredged sediments in the Haiphong harbour is evidence of the silting up of the northern estuary of Cam-Bach Dang. The effect of tidal pumping on enhanced flow occurring in the dry season and resulting from changed water regulation is discussed as a possible cause of the enhanced siltation of the estuary after Hoa Binh dam impoundment.

  20. Maintenance Budgeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. McCree

    Three methods for the preparation of maintenance budgets are discussed--(1) a traditional method, inconclusive and obsolete, based on gross square footage, (2) the formula approach method based on building classification (wood-frame, masonry-wood, masonry-concrete) with maintenance cost factors for each type plus custodial service rates by type of…

  1. The "covariation method" for estimating the parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget model I: Philosophy and approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lika, Konstadia; Kearney, Michael R.; Freitas, Vânia; van der Veer, Henk W.; van der Meer, Jaap; Wijsman, Johannes W. M.; Pecquerie, Laure; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    The Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory for metabolic organisation captures the processes of development, growth, maintenance, reproduction and ageing for any kind of organism throughout its life-cycle. However, the application of DEB theory is challenging because the state variables and parameters are abstract quantities that are not directly observable. We here present a new approach of parameter estimation, the covariation method, that permits all parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model to be estimated from standard empirical datasets. Parameter estimates are based on the simultaneous minimization of a weighted sum of squared deviations between a number of data sets and model predictions or the minimisation of the negative log likelihood function, both in a single-step procedure. The structure of DEB theory permits the unusual situation of using single data-points (such as the maximum reproduction rate), which we call "zero-variate" data, for estimating parameters. We also introduce the concept of "pseudo-data", exploiting the rules for the covariation of parameter values among species that are implied by the standard DEB model. This allows us to introduce the concept of a generalised animal, which has specified parameter values. We here outline the philosophy behind the approach and its technical implementation. In a companion paper, we assess the behaviour of the estimation procedure and present preliminary findings of emerging patterns in parameter values across diverse taxa.

  2. Global runoff anomalies over 1993–2009 estimated from coupled Land–Ocean–Atmosphere water budgets and its relation with climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munier

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Whether the global runoff (or freshwater discharge from land to the ocean is currently increasing and the global water cycle is intensifying is still a controversial issue. Here we compute land–atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere water budgets and derive two independent estimates of the global runoff over the period 1993–2009. Water storage variations in the land, ocean and atmosphere reservoirs are estimated from different types of data sets: atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, satellite altimetry and in situ ocean temperature data (the difference between altimetry based global mean sea level and ocean thermal expansion providing an estimate of the ocean mass component. These data sets are first validated using independent data, and then the global runoff is computed from the two methods. Results for the global runoff show a very good correlation between both estimates. More importantly, no significant trend is observed over the whole period. Besides, the global runoff appears to be clearly impacted by large-scale climate phenomena such as major ENSO events. To infer this, we compute the zonal runoff over four latitudinal bands and set up for each band a new index (combined runoff index obtained by optimization of linear combinations of various climate indices. Results show that, in particular, the intertropical and northern mid-latitude runoffs are mainly driven by ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO with opposite behavior. Indeed, the zonal runoff in the intertropical zone decreases during major El Niño events, whereas it increases in the northern mid-latitudes, suggesting that water masses over land are shifted northward/southward during El Niño/La Niña. In addition to this study, we propose an innovative method to estimate the global ocean thermal expansion. The method is based on the assumption that the difference between both runoff estimates is mainly due to the thermal expansion term not accounted for in

  3. Modeling Water Pollution of Soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Doležel

    2008-01-01

    depth of 220–300 m below the terrain. As an alternative, thinner stoppers were considered, but this option was discarded.The aim of this paper is to describe the design of the stoppers applied to separate the two types of water along the contact horizon using Desai’s DSC theory (Distinct State Concept, and generalized plane strain in the multiphase problem of water flow in a porous medium. In addition, a comparison of some results from scale experimental models with numerical solutions was carried out. The intrinsic material properties of stoppers for numerical computations were obtained from physical and chemical laboratory tests. The models were evaluated for the complete underground work, particularly in its final stage of construction. 

  4. Estimating hydrologic budgets for six Persian Gulf watersheds, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Majid; Ghafouri, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, MahmoudReza; Goodarzi, Masoud; Mokarian, Zeinab

    2017-10-01

    Estimation of the major components of the hydrologic budget is important for determining the impacts on the water supply and quality of either planned or proposed land management projects, vegetative changes, groundwater withdrawals, and reservoir management practices and plans. As acquisition of field data is costly and time consuming, models have been created to test various land use practices and their concomitant effects on the hydrologic budget of watersheds. To simulate such management scenarios realistically, a model should be able to simulate the individual components of the hydrologic budget. The main objective of this study is to perform the SWAT2012 model for estimation of hydrological budget in six subbasin of Persian Gulf watershed; Golgol, Baghan, Marghab Shekastian, Tangebirim and Daragah, which are located in south and south west of Iran during 1991-2009. In order to evaluate the performance of the model, hydrological data, soil map, land use map and digital elevation model (DEM) are obtained and prepared for each catchment to run the model. SWAT-CUP with SUFI2 program was used for simulation, uncertainty and validation with 95 Percent Prediction Uncertainty. Coefficient of determination ( R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) were used for evaluation of the model simulation results. Comparison of measured and predicted values demonstrated that each component of the model gave reasonable output and that the interaction among components was realistic. The study has produced a technique with reliable capability for annual and monthly water budget components in Persian Gulf watershed.

  5. MUREX: a land-surface field experiment to study the annual cycle of the energy and water budgets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-C. Calvet

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The MUREX (monitoring the usable soil reservoir experimentally experiment was designed to provide continuous time series of field data over a long period, in order to improve and validate the Soil-vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT parameterisations employed in meteorological models. Intensive measurements were performed for more than three years over fallow farmland in southwestern France. To capture the main processes controlling land-atmosphere exchanges, the local climate was fully characterised, and surface water and energy fluxes, vegetation biomass, soil moisture profiles, surface soil moisture and surface and soil temperature were monitored. Additional physiological measurements were carried out during selected periods to describe the biological control of the fluxes. The MUREX data of 1995, 1996, and 1997 are presented. Four SVAT models are applied to the annual cycle of 1995. In general, they succeed in simulating the main features of the fallow functioning, although some shortcomings are revealed.Key words. Hydrology (evapotranspiration; soil moisture; water-energy interactions.

  6. CDO budgeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesladek, Pavel; Wiswesser, Andreas; Sass, Björn; Mauermann, Sebastian

    2008-04-01

    The Critical dimension off-target (CDO) is a key parameter for mask house customer, affecting directly the performance of the mask. The CDO is the difference between the feature size target and the measured feature size. The change of CD during the process is either compensated within the process or by data correction. These compensation methods are commonly called process bias and data bias, respectively. The difference between data bias and process bias in manufacturing results in systematic CDO error, however, this systematic error does not take into account the instability of the process bias. This instability is a result of minor variations - instabilities of manufacturing processes and changes in materials and/or logistics. Using several masks the CDO of the manufacturing line can be estimated. For systematic investigation of the unit process contribution to CDO and analysis of the factors influencing the CDO contributors, a solid understanding of each unit process and huge number of masks is necessary. Rough identification of contributing processes and splitting of the final CDO variation between processes can be done with approx. 50 masks with identical design, material and process. Such amount of data allows us to identify the main contributors and estimate the effect of them by means of Analysis of variance (ANOVA) combined with multivariate analysis. The analysis does not provide information about the root cause of the variation within the particular unit process, however, it provides a good estimate of the impact of the process on the stability of the manufacturing line. Additionally this analysis can be used to identify possible interaction between processes, which cannot be investigated if only single processes are considered. Goal of this work is to evaluate limits for CDO budgeting models given by the precision and the number of measurements as well as partitioning the variation within the manufacturing process. The CDO variation splits according to

  7. Oscillating water column structural model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copeland, Guild [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jepsen, Richard Alan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gordon, Margaret Ellen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-09-01

    An oscillating water column (OWC) wave energy converter is a structure with an opening to the ocean below the free surface, i.e. a structure with a moonpool. Two structural models for a non-axisymmetric terminator design OWC, the Backward Bent Duct Buoy (BBDB) are discussed in this report. The results of this structural model design study are intended to inform experiments and modeling underway in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated Reference Model Project (RMP). A detailed design developed by Re Vision Consulting used stiffeners and girders to stabilize the structure against the hydrostatic loads experienced by a BBDB device. Additional support plates were added to this structure to account for loads arising from the mooring line attachment points. A simplified structure was designed in a modular fashion. This simplified design allows easy alterations to the buoyancy chambers and uncomplicated analysis of resulting changes in buoyancy.

  8. Accounting for Water Insecurity in Modeling Domestic Water Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaitsis, S. E.; Huber-lee, A. T.; Vogel, R. M.; Naumova, E.

    2013-12-01

    Water demand management uses price elasticity estimates to predict consumer demand in relation to water pricing changes, but studies have shown that many additional factors effect water consumption. Development scholars document the need for water security, however, much of the water security literature focuses on broad policies which can influence water demand. Previous domestic water demand studies have not considered how water security can affect a population's consumption behavior. This study is the first to model the influence of water insecurity on water demand. A subjective indicator scale measuring water insecurity among consumers in the Palestinian West Bank is developed and included as a variable to explore how perceptions of control, or lack thereof, impact consumption behavior and resulting estimates of price elasticity. A multivariate regression model demonstrates the significance of a water insecurity variable for data sets encompassing disparate water access. When accounting for insecurity, the R-squaed value improves and the marginal price a household is willing to pay becomes a significant predictor for the household quantity consumption. The model denotes that, with all other variables held equal, a household will buy more water when the users are more water insecure. Though the reasons behind this trend require further study, the findings suggest broad policy implications by demonstrating that water distribution practices in scarcity conditions can promote consumer welfare and efficient water use.

  9. One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Randall T.; Boyce, Scott E.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hughes, Joseph D.; Mehl, Steffen W.; Leake, Stanley A.; Maddock, Thomas; Niswonger, Richard G.

    2014-01-01

    -constrained conditions. From large- to small-scale settings, MF-OWHM has the unique set of capabilities to simulate and analyze historical, present, and future conjunctive-use conditions. MF-OWHM is especially useful for the analysis of agricultural water use where few data are available for pumpage, land use, or agricultural information. The features presented in this IHM include additional linkages with SFR, SWR, Drain-Return (DRT), Multi-Node Wells (MNW1 and MNW2), and Unsaturated-Zone Flow (UZF). Thus, MF-OWHM helps to reduce the loss of water during simulation of the hydrosphere and helps to account for “all of the water everywhere and all of the time.” In addition to groundwater, surface-water, and landscape budgets, MF-OWHM provides more options for observations of land subsidence, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration (ET) than previous models. Detailed landscape budgets combined with output of estimates of actual evapotranspiration facilitates linkage to remotely sensed observations as input or as additional observations for parameter estimation or water-use analysis. The features of FMP have been extended to allow for temporally variable water-accounting units (farms) that can be linked to land-use models and the specification of both surface-water and groundwater allotments to facilitate sustainability analysis and connectivity to the Groundwater Management Process (GWM). An example model described in this report demonstrates the application of MF-OWHM with the addition of land subsidence and a vertically deforming mesh, delayed recharge through an unsaturated zone, rejected infiltration in a riparian area, changes in demand caused by deficiency in supply, and changes in multi-aquifer pumpage caused by constraints imposed through the Farm Process and the MNW2 Package, and changes in surface water such as runoff, streamflow, and canal flows through SFR and SWR linkages.

  10. Modeling the impacts of climate change, landuse change, and human population dynamics on water availability and demands in the Southeastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Erika Cohen; David Wear

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a method to fully budget annual water supply (Precipitation - Evapotranspiration (ET) + Groundwater supply + Return Flow) and water use from thermoelectric, irrigation, domestic, industry, livestock, minirig, and commercial uses at the regional scale. We used a generalized annual ET model that estimates water loss as a function...

  11. Drafting Multiannual Local Budgets by Economic-Mathematical Modelling of the Evolution of Revenues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan Radu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Although seen as a sector with a high degree of inertia and conservatism the public administration system determines the public institutions to record a set of influences both from the internal and external environment. The public administration system is influenced by the frequent legislative changes and recently by the requirements claimed by the European Union. Given the complexity and dynamics of the competitive environment the approach of strategic management tools at the level of public administration becomes more and more important and necessary. One of the main types of exercise of strategic management is represented by financial planning moulded into policies, strategies, plans and programmes whose generation is based on multiannual budgets.

  12. Water Isotope framework for lake water balance monitoring and modelling in the Nam Co Basin, Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shichang Kang

    2017-08-01

    New hydrological insights: A water isotope framework for the Nam Co basin, including the Local Meteoric Water Line, limiting isotopic composition of evaporation and two hypothetical evaporation trajectories, is established. We further applied the isotope mass balance model to estimate the overall isotopic composition of input water to the Nam Co, the evaporation over inputs ratios (E/I for three consecutive years, and the water yields (Wy, depth equivalent runoff at a basin scale. Our results clearly suggest a positive water budget (i.e., E/I < 1, providing another line of evidence that the subsurface leakage from Nam Co is likely. The discrepancy between isotope-based water yields estimations and field-based runoff observations suggest that, compared to the well-studied Nyainqentanglha Mountains and southwestern mountains, the ridge-and-valley landscape in the western highlands and northwestern hogbacks are possibly low yields area, which should draw more research attentions in future hydrological investigations.

  13. Drinking Water Temperature Modelling in Domestic Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Moerman, A.; Blokker, M.; Vreeburg, J.; van der Hoek, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Domestic water supply systems are the final stage of the transport process to deliver potable water to the customers’ tap. Under the influence of temperature, residence time and pipe materials the drinking water quality can change while the water passes the domestic drinking water system. According to the Dutch Drinking Water Act the drinking water temperature may not exceed the 25 °C threshold at point-of-use level. This paper provides a mathematical approach to model the heating of drinking...

  14. Estimation of energy budget of ionosphere-thermosphere system during two CIR-HSS events: observations and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verkhoglyadova Olga

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the energy budget of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT system during two High-Speed Streams (HSSs on 22–31 January, 2007 (in the descending phase of solar cycle 23 and 25 April–2 May, 2011 (in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 to understand typical features, similarities, and differences in magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (IT coupling during HSS geomagnetic activity. We focus on the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere (by using coupling functions and energy partitioning within the IT system during these intervals. The Joule heating is estimated empirically. Hemispheric power is estimated based on satellite measurements. We utilize observations from TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry to estimate nitric oxide (NO and carbon dioxide (CO2 cooling emission fluxes. We perform a detailed modeling study of these two similar HSS events with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM and different external driving inputs to understand the IT response and to address how well the model reproduces the energy transport. GITM is run in a mode with forecastable inputs. It is shown that the model captures the main features of the energy coupling, but underestimates NO cooling and auroral heating in high latitudes. Lower thermospheric forcing at 100 km altitude is important for correct energy balance of the IT system. We discuss challenges for a physics-based general forecasting approach in modeling the energy budget of moderate IT storms caused by HSSs.

  15. IASMHYN: A web tool for mapping Soil Water Budget and agro-hydrological assessment trough the integration of monitoring and remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagli, Stefano; Pistocchi, Alberto; Mazzoli, Paolo; Borga, Marco; Bertoldi, Giacomo; Brenner, Johannes; Luzzi, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change, increasing pressure on farmland to satisfy the growing demand, and need to ensure environmental quality for agriculture in order to be competitive require an increasing capacity of water management. In this context, web-based for forecasting and monitoring the hydrological conditions of topsoil can be an effective means to save water, maximize crop protection and reduce soil loss and the leaching of pollutants. Such tools need to be targeted to the users and be accessible in a simple way in order to allow adequate take up in the practice. IASMHYN "Improved management of Agricultural Systems by Monitoring and Hydrological evaluation" is a web mapping service designed to provide and update on a daily basis the main water budget variables for farmland management. A beta version of the tool is available at www.gecosistema.com/iasmhyn . IASMHYN is an instrument for "second level monitoring" that takes into account accurate hydro-meteorological information's from ground stations and remote sensing sources, and turns them into practically usable decision variables for precision farming, making use of geostatistical analysis and hydrological models The main routines embedded in IASMYHN exclusively use open source libraries (R packages and Python), to perform following operations: (1) Automatic acquisition of observed data, both from ground stations and remote sensing, concerning precipitation (RADAR) and temperature (MODIS-LST) available from various sources; (2) Interpolation of acquisitions through regression kriging in order to spatially map the meteorological data; (3) Run of hydrological models to obtain spatial information of hydrological soil variables of immediate interest in agriculture. The real time results that are produced are available trough a web interface and provide the user with spatial maps and time series of the following variables, supporting decision on irrigation, soil protection from erosion, pollution risk of groundwater and

  16. Groundwater influence on water budget of a small constructed floodplain wetland in the Ridge and Valley of Virginia, USA

    OpenAIRE

    Ludwig, Andrea L.; Hession, W. Cully

    2015-01-01

    Study region: A floodplain in the headwaters of a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay, Ridge and Valley of the Eastern United States. Study focus: This study investigated the influence of groundwater exchange in the annual wetland hydrologic budget and identified spatial and temporal variability in groundwater hydraulic gradients using an array of nested piezometers. New hydrological insights for the region: Data showed that the created wetland met hydrologic success criteria, and that the ...

  17. Large-scale dynamical influence of a gravity wave generated over the Antarctic Peninsula – regional modelling and budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOEL Arnault

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The case study of a mountain wave triggered by the Antarctic Peninsula on 6 October 2005, which has already been documented in the literature, is chosen here to quantify the associated gravity wave forcing on the large-scale flow, with a budget analysis of the horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy. In particular, a numerical simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is compared to a control simulation with flat orography to separate the contribution of the mountain wave from that of other synoptic processes of non-orographic origin. The so-called differential budgets of horizontal wind components and horizontal kinetic energy (after subtracting the results from the simulation without orography are then averaged horizontally and vertically in the inner domain of the simulation to quantify the mountain wave dynamical influence at this scale. This allows for a quantitative analysis of the simulated mountain wave's dynamical influence, including the orographically induced pressure drag, the counterbalancing wave-induced vertical transport of momentum from the flow aloft, the momentum and energy exchanges with the outer flow at the lateral and upper boundaries, the effect of turbulent mixing, the dynamics associated with geostrophic re-adjustment of the inner flow, the deceleration of the inner flow, the secondary generation of an inertia–gravity wave and the so-called baroclinic conversion of energy between potential energy and kinetic energy.

  18. [Simulation and data mining model for identifying and prediction budget changes in the care of patients with hypertension].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyanes-Aguilar, Luis; Castaño, Néstor J; Osorio, José H

    2015-10-01

    Objective To present a simulation model that establishes the economic impact to the health care system produced by the diagnostic evolution of patients suffering from arterial hypertension. Methodology The information used corresponds to that available in Individual Health Records (RIPs, in Spanish). A statistical characterization was carried out and a model for matrix storage in MATLAB was proposed. Data mining was used to create predictors. Finally, a simulation environment was built to determine the economic cost of diagnostic evolution. Results 5.7 % of the population progresses from the diagnosis, and the cost overrun associated with it is 43.2 %. Conclusions Results shows the applicability and possibility of focussing research on establishing diagnosis relationships using all the information reported in the RIPS in order to create econometric indicators that can determine which diagnostic evolutions are most relevant to budget allocation.

  19. Evaluating LSM-Based Water Budgets Over a West African Basin Assisted with a River Routing Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getirana, Augusto C. V.; Boone, Aaron; Peugeot, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    Within the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (ALMIP-2), this study evaluates the water balance simulated by the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) over the upper Oum River basin, in Benin, using a mesoscale river routing scheme (RRS). The RRS is based on the nonlinear Muskingum Cunge method coupled with two linear reservoirs that simulate the time delay of both surface runoff and base flow that are produced by land surface models. On the basis of the evidence of a deep water-table recharge in that region,a reservoir representing the deep-water infiltration (DWI) is introduced. The hydrological processes of the basin are simulated for the 2005-08 AMMA field campaign period during which rainfall and stream flow data were intensively collected over the study area. Optimal RRS parameter sets were determined for three optimization experiments that were performed using daily stream flow at five gauges within the basin. Results demonstrate that the RRS simulates stream flow at all gauges with relative errors varying from -22% to 3% and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients varying from 0.62 to 0.90. DWI varies from 24% to 67% of the base flow as a function of the sub-basin. The relatively simple reservoir DWI approach is quite robust, and further improvements would likely necessitate more complex solutions (e.g., considering seasonality and soil type in ISBA); thus, such modifications are recommended for future studies. Although the evaluation shows that the simulated stream flows are generally satisfactory, further field investigations are necessary to confirm some of the model assumptions.

  20. Modern Modeling of Water Hammer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urbanowicz Kamil

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Hydraulic equipment on board ships is common. It assists in the work of: steering gear, pitch propellers, watertight doors, cargo hatch covers, cargo and mooring winches, deck cranes, stern ramps etc. The damage caused by transient flows (which include among others water hammer are often impossible to repair at sea. Hence, it is very important to estimate the correct pressure runs and associated side effects during their design. The presented study compares the results of research on the impact of a simplified way of modeling the hydraulic resistance and simplified effective weighting functions build of two and three-terms on the estimated results of the pressure changes. As it turns out, simple effective two-terms weighting functions are able to accurately model the analyzed transients. The implementation of the presented method will soon allow current automatic protection of hydraulic systems of the adverse effects associated with frequent elevated and reduced pressures.

  1. Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulibaly, Lassina; Jakus, Paul M.; Keith, John E.

    2014-07-01

    A significant portion of the world's population lives in areas where public water delivery systems are unreliable and/or deliver poor quality water. In response, people have developed important alternatives to publicly supplied water. To date, most water demand research has been based on single-equation models for a single source of water, with very few studies that have examined water demand from two sources of water (where all nonpublic system water sources have been aggregated into a single demand). This modeling approach leads to two outcomes. First, the demand models do not capture the full range of alternatives, so the true economic relationship among the alternatives is obscured. Second, and more seriously, economic theory predicts that demand for a good becomes more price-elastic as the number of close substitutes increases. If researchers artificially limit the number of alternatives studied to something less than the true number, the price elasticity estimate may be biased downward. This paper examines water demand in a region with near universal access to piped water, but where system reliability and quality is such that many alternative sources of water exist. In extending the demand analysis to four sources of water, we are able to (i) demonstrate why households choose the water sources they do, (ii) provide a richer description of the demand relationships among sources, and (iii) calculate own-price elasticity estimates that are more elastic than those generally found in the literature.

  2. Estimating the glacial melt water contribution to the fresh water budget from salinity and δ18O measurements in Godthåbsfjord

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzner, Antje; van As, Dirk; Bendtsen, Jorgen; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Fettweis, Xavier; Mortensen, John; Rysgaard, Soren

    2013-04-01

    The mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet increases due to changes in the surface mass balance and accelerated ice discharge through numerous outlet glaciers at the margins. The melt has global and local consequences. Globally the sea level rises and locally the increased fresh water inflow affects fishery and transportation. In this study we focus on the fjord system near Nuuk in West Greenland, Godthåbsfjord. Godthåbsfjord is a unique fjord with its length of about 300 km and a shallow sill at the fjord entrance that protects the fjord system. There are several tidewater glaciers terminating into the fjord and two land-terminating glaciers along the fjord contributing to the fresh water content in the fjord. The largest tidewater glacier is Kangiata Nunåta Sermia. The freshwater originates primarily from three processes: surface melt, ice berg calving and basal melt. Observations and climate models can give estimates for calving and surface melt. Basal melt, however, cannot be observed directly. Even though mass loss by basal melting is neglected on the global scale, it plays an important role in the small regional environment like fjords and the glaciers itself. Warmer ocean temperatures increase basal melt, and resulting lubrication accelerates tidewater glaciers. Overall, the freshwater content in the fjord increases. Salinity measurements taken in the fjord between 2007 and 2011 show a seasonal variability originating from the variation in fresh water inflow. Based on salinity records only, it is not possible to distinguish between the different fresh water sources like precipitation and melt. Hence, δ18O measurements are used in addition to salinity records to determine the origin of the fresh water because of the different δ18O signatures of run-off and glacial melt water. The resulting fresh water inflow and the glacial melt contribution are compared to independent estimates and regional climate model output.

  3. Impact of microwave derived soil moisture on hydrologic simulations using a spatially distributed water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, D. S.; Wood, E. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Mancini, M.

    1994-01-01

    Spatial distributions of soil moisture over an agricultural watershed with a drainage area of 60 ha were derived from two NASA microwave remote sensors, and then used as a feedback to determine the initial condition for a distributed water balance model. Simulated hydrologic fluxes over a period of twelve days were compared with field observations and with model predictions based on a streamflow derived initial condition. The results indicated that even the low resolution remotely sensed data can improve the hydrologic model's performance in simulating the dynamics of unsaturated zone soil moisture. For the particular watershed under study, the simulated water budget was not sensitive to the resolutions of the microwave sensors.

  4. Generalized hydrogeology and ground-water budget for the C Aquifer, Little Colorado River Basin and parts of the Verde and Salt River Basins, Arizona and New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Robert J.; Ward, John J.; Bills, Donald J.; Flynn, Marilyn E.

    2002-01-01

    The C aquifer underlies the Little Colorado River Basin and parts of the Verde and Salt River Basins and is named for the primary water-bearing rock unit of the aquifer, the Coconino Sandstone. The areal extent of this aquifer is more than 27,000 square miles. More than 1,000 well and spring sites were identified in the U.S. Geological Survey database for the C aquifer in Arizona and New Mexico. The C aquifer is the most productive aquifer in the Little Colorado River Basin. The Little Colorado River is the primary surface-water feature in the area, and it has a direct hydraulic connection with the C aquifer in some areas. Spring discharge as base flow from the C aquifer occurs predominantly in the lower 13 miles of the Little Colorado River subsequent to downward leakage into the deeper Redwall-Muav Limestone aquifer. Ground-water mounds or divides exist along the southern and northeastern boundaries of the Little Colorado River Basin. The ground-water divides are significant boundaries of the C aquifer; however, the location and persistence of the divides potentially can be affected by ground-water withdrawals. Ground-water development in the C aquifer has increased steadily since the 1940s because population growth has produced an increased need for agricultural, industrial, and public water supply. Ground-water pumpage from the C aquifer during 1995 was about 140,000 acre-feet. Ground-water budget components for the C aquifer were evaluated using measured or estimated discharge values. The system was assumed to be in a steady-state condition with respect to natural recharge and discharge, and the stability of discharge from major springs during the past several decades supported the steady-state assumption. Downward leakage to the Redwall-Muav Limestone aquifer is a major discharge component for the ground-water budget. Discharge from the C aquifer is estimated to be 319,000 acre-feet per year.

  5. Nationwide water availability data for energy-water modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidwell, Vincent Carroll [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Zemlick, Katie M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Klise, Geoffrey Taylor [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2013-11-01

    The purpose of this effort is to explore where the availability of water could be a limiting factor in the siting of new electric power generation. To support this analysis, water availability is mapped at the county level for the conterminous United States (3109 counties). Five water sources are individually considered, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water (western U.S. only), municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Also mapped is projected growth in non-thermoelectric consumptive water demand to 2035. Finally, the water availability metrics are accompanied by estimated costs associated with utilizing that particular supply of water. Ultimately these data sets are being developed for use in the National Renewable Energy Laboratories' (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, designed to investigate the likely deployment of new energy installations in the U.S., subject to a number of constraints, particularly water.

  6. The July 2016 Study of the water VApour in the polar AtmosPhere (SVAAP) campaign at Thule, Greenland: surface radiation budget and role of clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meloni, Daniela; Di Iorio, Tatiana; di Sarra, Alcide; Iaccarino, Antonio; Pace, Giandomenico; Mevi, Gabriele; Muscari, Giovanni; Cacciani, Marco; Gröbner, Julian

    2017-04-01

    The Study of the water VApour in the polar AtmosPhere (SVAAP) project, funded by the Italian Programme for Antarctic Research, is aimed at investigating the surface radiation budget (SRB), the variability of atmospheric water vapour, and the long-term variations in stratospheric composition and structure at Thule, Greenland, in the framework of the international Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). Thule High Arctic Atmospheric Observatory (THAAO, 76.5° N, 68.8° W) is devoted to study climate change and has been operational since 1990, with the contribution of different international institutions: DMI, NCAR, ENEA, INGV, Universities of Roma and Firenze (http://www.thuleatmos-it.it). As part of SVAAP an intensive field campaign was held at Thule from 5 to 28 July 2016. The campaign was also aimed at supporting the installation of VESPA-22, a new microwave radiometer for water vapour profiling in the upper atmosphere and integrated water vapour (IWV), and offered the possibility to study the cloud physical and optical properties and their impact on the SRB. Measurements of downward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) irradiance were already available since 2009. Additional observations were added to obtain the SRB and to characterize the atmospheric state: upward SW and LW irradiance, upwelling and downwelling photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), downward irradiance in the 8-14 µm infrared window, temperature and relative humidity tropospheric profiles, IWV, liquid water path (LWP), lidar tropospheric backscattering profiles, sky brightness temperature (BT) in the 9.6-11.5 µm spectral range, visible and infrared sky images, surface meteorological parameters. Moreover, 23 radiosonde were launched during the campaign. Data from the period 14-28 July are presented in this study. The first part of the campaign was characterized by stable cloud-free conditions, while alternation of cloudy and cloud-free sky occurred after 18 July. The

  7. High spatial resolution radiation budget for Europe: derived from satellite data, validation of a regional model; Raeumlich hochaufgeloeste Strahlungsbilanz ueber Europa: Ableitung aus Satellitendaten, Validation eines regionalen Modells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    2000-07-01

    Since forty years instruments onboard satellites have been demonstrated their usefulness for many applications in the field of meteorology and oceanography. Several experiments, like ERBE, are dedicated to establish a climatology of the global Earth radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere. Now the focus has been changed to the regional scale, e.g. GEWEX with its regional sub-experiments like BALTEX. To obtain a regional radiation budget for Europe in the first part of the work the well calibrated measurements from ScaRaB (scanner for radiation budget) are used to derive a narrow-to-broadband conversion, which is applicable to the AVHRR (advanced very high resolution radiometer). It is shown, that the accuracy of the method is in the order of that from SCaRaB itself. In the second part of the work, results of REMO have been compared with measurements of ScaRaB and AVHRR for March 1994. The model reproduces the measurements overall well, but it is overestimating the cold areas and underestimating the warm areas in the longwave spectral domain. Similarly it is overestimating the dark areas and underestimating the bright areas in the solar spectral domain. (orig.)

  8. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and select aldehydes in cloud and fog water: the role of the aqueous phase in impacting trace gas budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ervens, B.; Wang, Y.; Eagar, J.; Leaitch, W. R.; Macdonald, A. M.; Valsaraj, K. T.; Herckes, P.

    2013-05-01

    Cloud and fog droplets efficiently scavenge and process water-soluble compounds and, thus, modify the chemical composition of the gas and particle phases. The concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the aqueous phase reach concentrations on the order of ~ 10 mgC L-1 which is typically on the same order of magnitude as the sum of inorganic anions. Aldehydes and carboxylic acids typically comprise a large fraction of DOC because of their high solubility. The dissolution of species in the aqueous phase can lead to (i) the removal of species from the gas phase preventing their processing by gas phase reactions (e.g., photolysis of aldehydes) and (ii) the formation of unique products that do not have any efficient gas phase sources (e.g., dicarboxylic acids). We present measurements of DOC and select aldehydes in fog water at high elevation and intercepted clouds at a biogenically-impacted location (Whistler, Canada) and in fog water in a more polluted area (Davis, CA). Concentrations of formaldehyde, glyoxal and methylglyoxal were in the micromolar range and comprised ≤ 2% each individually of the DOC. Comparison of the DOC and aldehyde concentrations to those at other locations shows good agreement and reveals highest levels for both in anthropogenically impacted regions. Based on this overview, we conclude that the fraction of organic carbon (dissolved and insoluble inclusions) in the aqueous phase of clouds or fogs, respectively, comprises 2-~ 40% of total organic carbon. Higher values are observed to be associated with aged air masses where organics are expected to be more highly oxidised and, thus, more soluble. Accordingly, the aqueous/gas partitioning ratio expressed here as an effective Henry's law constant for DOC (KH*DOC) increases by an order of magnitude from 7 × 103 M atm-1 to 7 × 104 M atm-1 during the ageing of air masses. The measurements are accompanied by photochemical box model simulations. These simulations are used to contrast two

  9. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC and select aldehydes in cloud and fog water: the role of the aqueous phase in impacting trace gas budgets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ervens

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Cloud and fog droplets efficiently scavenge and process water-soluble compounds and, thus, modify the chemical composition of the gas and particle phases. The concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC in the aqueous phase reach concentrations on the order of ~ 10 mgC L−1 which is typically on the same order of magnitude as the sum of inorganic anions. Aldehydes and carboxylic acids typically comprise a large fraction of DOC because of their high solubility. The dissolution of species in the aqueous phase can lead to (i the removal of species from the gas phase preventing their processing by gas phase reactions (e.g., photolysis of aldehydes and (ii the formation of unique products that do not have any efficient gas phase sources (e.g., dicarboxylic acids. We present measurements of DOC and select aldehydes in fog water at high elevation and intercepted clouds at a biogenically-impacted location (Whistler, Canada and in fog water in a more polluted area (Davis, CA. Concentrations of formaldehyde, glyoxal and methylglyoxal were in the micromolar range and comprised ≤ 2% each individually of the DOC. Comparison of the DOC and aldehyde concentrations to those at other locations shows good agreement and reveals highest levels for both in anthropogenically impacted regions. Based on this overview, we conclude that the fraction of organic carbon (dissolved and insoluble inclusions in the aqueous phase of clouds or fogs, respectively, comprises 2–~ 40% of total organic carbon. Higher values are observed to be associated with aged air masses where organics are expected to be more highly oxidised and, thus, more soluble. Accordingly, the aqueous/gas partitioning ratio expressed here as an effective Henry's law constant for DOC (KH*DOC increases by an order of magnitude from 7 × 103 M atm−1 to 7 × 104 M atm−1 during the ageing of air masses. The measurements are accompanied by photochemical box model simulations. These simulations are

  10. Augmentations to the Noah model physics for application to the Yellow River source area. Part I: Soil water flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, Donghai; van der Velde, R.; Su, Zhongbo; Wang, X.; Wen, J.; Booij, Martijn J.; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Chen, Y.

    2015-01-01

    This is the first part of a study focusing on evaluating the performance of the Noah land surface model (LSM) in simulating surface water and energy budgets for the high-elevation source region of the Yellow River (SRYR). A comprehensive dataset is utilized that includes in situ micrometeorological

  11. Water balance model for Kings Creek

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric F.

    1990-01-01

    Particular attention is given to the spatial variability that affects the representation of water balance at the catchment scale in the context of macroscale water-balance modeling. Remotely sensed data are employed for parameterization, and the resulting model is developed so that subgrid spatial variability is preserved and therefore influences the grid-scale fluxes of the model. The model permits the quantitative evaluation of the surface-atmospheric interactions related to the large-scale hydrologic water balance.

  12. Coupled surface-water and ground-water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, Eric D.; Wexler, Eliezer J.

    1991-01-01

    In areas with dynamic and hydraulically well connected ground-water and surface-water systems, it is desirable that stream-aquifer interaction be simulated with models of equal sophistication and accuracy. Accordingly, a new, coupled ground-water and surface-water model was developed by combining the U.S. Geological Survey models MODFLOW and BRANCH. MODFLOW is the widely used modular three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water model and BRANCH is a one-dimensional numerical model commonly used to simulate flow in open-channel networks. Because time steps used in ground-water modeling commonly are much longer than those used in surface-water simulations, provision has been made for handling multiple BRANCH time steps within one MODFLOW time step. Verification testing of the coupled model was done using data from previous studies and by comparing results with output from a simpler four-point implicit open-channel flow model linked with MODFLOW.

  13. The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) and its Contributions to Space Weather Research, the Flare Energy Budget, and Instrument Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlin, Phillip

    2008-01-01

    The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models. The seminar will begin with a brief overview of the FISM model, and also how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM. Some current studies will then be presented that use FISM estimations of the solar VUV irradiance to quantify the contributions of the increased irradiance from flares to Earth's increased thermospheric and ionospheric densites. Initial results will also be presented from a study looking at the electron density increases in the Martian atmosphere during a solar flare. Results will also be shown quantifying the VUV contributions to the total flare energy budget for both the impulsive and gradual phases of solar flares. Lastly, an example of how FISM can be used to simplify the design of future solar VUV irradiance instruments will be discussed, using the future NOAA GOES-R Extreme Ultraviolet and X-Ray Sensors (EXIS) space weather instrument.

  14. Top-down approach to West Siberian regional carbon budget: combination of the CO2 observations and inverse modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksyutov, S.; Machida, T.; Shimoyama, K.; Carouge, C.; Peregon, A.; Patra, P.; Arshinov, M.; Krasnov, O.; Belan, B.; Fedoseev, N.; Shvidenko, A.; Inoue, G.

    2006-12-01

    Joint Japanese-Russian project is aiming at top-down approach to West Siberian regional carbon budget estimation. Study is combining three main components: regional atmospheric CO2 observing network, regional carbon inventory (bottom-up approach), and inverse model of atmospheric CO2 surface emissions, sinks and transport, that links together CO2 observations and carbon inventories. Airborne air sampling programs and observations are conducted over Siberia since 1993, now at 4 sites. A tower network has been established in West Siberia since 2002 with total of planned 10 tower sites, 6 of them operating in 2005. Bottom-up inventory of the regional carbon pools is based on analysis of the forest/wetland biomass inventories and interannual changes in forest survey totals on eco-region levels. To support the forward and inverse model simulations, detailed soil and vegetation type maps, soil profile and vegetation structure databases were developed. The inverse model of the surface CO2 sources and sinks was used for observation network design and is applied now to the first complete set observational data for year 2005. Preliminary analysis of the multiyear Siberian CO2 observations with inverse model suggest that more carbon sink is needed in Siberia to match the atmospheric data than implied without the regional observations.

  15. Modeling the eco-physiology of the purple mauve stinger, Pelagia noctiluca using Dynamic Energy Budget theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustine, Starrlight; Rosa, Sara; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.; Carlotti, François; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

    2014-11-01

    Parameters for the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model were estimated for the purple mauve stinger, Pelagia noctiluca, using literature data. Overall, the model predictions are in good agreement with data covering the full life-cycle. The parameter set we obtain suggests that P. noctiluca is well adapted to survive long periods of starvation since the predicted maximum reserve capacity is extremely high. Moreover we predict that the reproductive output of larger individuals is relatively insensitive to changes in food level while wet mass and length are. Furthermore, the parameters imply that even if food were scarce (ingestion levels only 14% of the maximum for a given size) an individual would still mature and be able to reproduce. We present detailed model predictions for embryo development and discuss the developmental energetics of the species such as the fact that the metabolism of ephyrae accelerates for several days after birth. Finally we explore a number of concrete testable model predictions which will help to guide future research. The application of DEB theory to the collected data allowed us to conclude that P. noctiluca combines maximizing allocation to reproduction with rather extreme capabilities to survive starvation. The combination of these properties might explain why P. noctiluca is a rapidly growing concern to fisheries and tourism.

  16. Mosquito breeding site water temperature observations and simulations towards improved vector-borne disease models for Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest O. Asare

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available An energy budget model is developed to predict water temperature of typical mosquito larval developmental habitats. It assumes a homogeneous mixed water column driven by empirically derived fluxes. The model shows good agreement at both hourly and daily time scales with 10-min temporal resolution observed water temperatures, monitored between June and November 2013 within a peri-urban area of Kumasi, Ghana. There was a close match between larvae development times calculated using either the model-derived or observed water temperatures. The water temperature scheme represents a significant improvement over assuming the water temperature to be equal to air temperature. The energy budget model requires observed minimum and maximum temperatures, information that is generally available from weather stations. Our results show that hourly variations in water temperature are important for the simulation of aquatic-stage development times. By contrast, we found that larval development is insensitive to sub-hourly variations. Modelling suggests that in addition to water temperature, accurate estimation of degree-day development time is very important to correctly predict the larvae development times. The results highlight the potential of the model to predict water temperature of temporary bodies of surface water. Our study represents an important contribution towards the improvement of weatherdriven dynamical disease models, including those designed for malaria early forecasting systems.

  17. Mosquito breeding site water temperature observations and simulations towards improved vector-borne disease models for Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asare, Ernest O; Tompkins, Adrian M; Amekudzi, Leonard K; Ermert, Volker; Redl, Robert

    2016-03-31

    An energy budget model is developed to predict water temperature of typical mosquito larval developmental habitats. It assumes a homogeneous mixed water column driven by empirically derived fluxes. The model shows good agreement at both hourly and daily time scales with 10-min temporal resolution observed water temperatures, monitored between June and November 2013 within a peri-urban area of Kumasi, Ghana. There was a close match between larvae development times calculated using either the model-derived or observed water temperatures. The water temperature scheme represents a significant improvement over assuming the water temperature to be equal to air temperature. The energy budget model requires observed minimum and maximum temperatures, information that is generally available from weather stations. Our results show that hourly variations in water temperature are important for the simulation of aquatic-stage development times. By contrast, we found that larval development is insensitive to sub-hourly variations. Modelling suggests that in addition to water temperature, accurate estimation of degree-day development time is very important to correctly predict the larvae development times. The results highlight the potential of the model to predict water temperature of temporary bodies of surface water. Our study represents an important contribution towards the improvement of weatherdriven dynamical disease models, including those designed for malaria early forecasting systems.

  18. Tagging Water Sources in Atmospheric Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, M.

    2003-01-01

    Tagging of water sources in atmospheric models allows for quantitative diagnostics of how water is transported from its source region to its sink region. In this presentation, we review how this methodology is applied to global atmospheric models. We will present several applications of the methodology. In one example, the regional sources of water for the North American Monsoon system are evaluated by tagging the surface evaporation. In another example, the tagged water is used to quantify the global water cycling rate and residence time. We will also discuss the need for more research and the importance of these diagnostics in water cycle studies.

  19. Alluvial and colluvial sediment storage in the Geul River catchment (The Netherlands) — Combining field and modelling data to construct a Late Holocene sediment budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Moor, J.J.W.; Verstraeten, G.

    2007-01-01

    We used a combined approach of a two-dimensional erosion and hillslope sediment delivery model (WATEM/SEDEM) and detailed geomorphological reconstructions to quantify the different components in a sediment budget for the Geul River catchment (southern Netherlands) since the High Middle Ages.

  20. Budgeting for School Media Centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drott, M. Carl

    1978-01-01

    Describes various forms of budgets and discusses concepts in budgeting useful to supervisors of school media centers: line item budgets, capital budgets, creating budgets, the budget calendar, innovations, PPBS (Planning, Programing, Budgeting System), zero-based budgeting, cost-benefit analysis, benefits, benefit guidelines, and budgeting for the…

  1. Assessing the Water-Resources Potential of Istanbul by Using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Hydrological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gokhan Cuceloglu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainties due to climate change and population growth have created a critical situation for many megacities. Investigating spatio-temporal variability of water resources is, therefore, a critical initial step for water-resource management. This paper is a first study on the evaluation of water-budget components of water resources in Istanbul using a high-resolution hydrological model. In this work, the water resources of Istanbul and surrounding watersheds were modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, which is a continuous-time, semi-distributed, process-based model. The SWAT-CUP program was used for calibration/validation of the model with uncertainty analysis using the SUFI-2 algorithm over the period 1977–2013 at 25 gauge stations. The results reveal that the annual blue-water potential of Istanbul is 3.5 billion m3, whereas the green-water flow and storage are 2.9 billion m3 and 0.7 billion m3, respectively. Watersheds located on the Asian side of the Istanbul megacity yield more blue-water resources compared to the European side, and constitute 75% of the total potential water resources. The model highlights the water potential of the city under current circumstances and gives an insight into its spatial distribution over the region. This study provides a strong basis for forthcoming studies concerning better water-resources management practices, climate change and water-quality studies, as well as other socio-economic scenario analyses in the region.

  2. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Adachi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available More reliable estimates of the carbon (C stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems in Southeast Asia, including the impacts of land-use conversion. The observed aboveground biomass in the seasonal dry tropical forest in Thailand (226.3 t C ha−1 and the rainforest in Malaysia (201.5 t C ha−1 indicate that tropical forests of Southeast Asia are among the most C-abundant ecosystems in the world. The model simulation results in rainforests were consistent with field data, except for the NEP, however, the VISIT model tended to underestimate C budget and stock in the seasonal dry tropical forest. The gross primary production (GPP based on field observations ranged from 32.0 to 39.6 t C ha−1 yr−1 in the two primary forests, whereas the model slightly underestimated GPP (26.5–34.5 t C ha−1 yr−1. The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after the deforestation event. According to the model simulation, the total C stock (total biomass and soil C of the oil palm plantation was about 35% of the rainforest's C stock at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation. However, there were few field data of C budget and stock, especially in oil palm plantation. The C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over the long term using both the model simulations and observations to

  3. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Ishida, A.; Kadir, W. R.; Ladpala, P.; Yamagata, Y.

    2011-09-01

    More reliable estimates of the carbon (C) stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT) was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia) and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia) to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems in Southeast Asia, including the impacts of land-use conversion. The observed aboveground biomass in the seasonal dry tropical forest in Thailand (226.3 t C ha-1) and the rainforest in Malaysia (201.5 t C ha-1) indicate that tropical forests of Southeast Asia are among the most C-abundant ecosystems in the world. The model simulation results in rainforests were consistent with field data, except for the NEP, however, the VISIT model tended to underestimate C budget and stock in the seasonal dry tropical forest. The gross primary production (GPP) based on field observations ranged from 32.0 to 39.6 t C ha-1 yr-1 in the two primary forests, whereas the model slightly underestimated GPP (26.5-34.5 t C ha-1 yr-1). The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after the deforestation event. According to the model simulation, the total C stock (total biomass and soil C) of the oil palm plantation was about 35% of the rainforest's C stock at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation. However, there were few field data of C budget and stock, especially in oil palm plantation. The C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over the long term using both the model simulations and observations to understand the effects of climate and land-use conversion on C budgets in tropical forest

  4. Annual variation in carbon budget using remote-sensing data and a process model in Borneo Island, Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Takeuchi, W.; Yamagata, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD) is one of the most important carbon emission reduction efforts in the tropical region. Deforestation and land use changes are human activities with major impact on the regional carbon budged and the other greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) emissions. Forest carbon biomass in Southeast Asia is largest in Asia region; however, the area of primary forest had continuously decreased due to land-use conversion. The objective of the present study was to evaluate carbon budged and greenhouse gases induced by deforestation from Borneo Island. We used time-series satellite remote-sensing data to track deforestation history in Borneo Island, Southeast Asia, and estimated the resulting forest carbon budget using a process-based model (VISIT: Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases). The forest/non-forest area was mapped by applying the ALOS/PALSAR-calibrated threshold value to MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION, and NOAA-AVHRR images. The model allowed us to estimate changes in carbon budged and greenhouse gases by human disturbances, including land-use conversion from primary forest to cropland (e.g., oil-palm plantation). The estimated carbon stocks, budged, and greenhouse gases were verified using field observation of previous studies at some point of Borneo Island. Our results suggested that the southern part of Borneo Island was a large carbon source due to deforestation, although the VISIT model need be revised to account for tropical peatland.

  5. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second model (so-called multiple-trend, the time series is divided into a number of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on the lake water level data shows that four segments, each fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the simulated lake water level.

  6. C and N gross efficiencies of copepod egg production studies using a dynamic energy budget model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, L.D.J.; Anderson, T.R.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2004-01-01

    Simple stoichiometric models based on the principle that limiting elements are used with high efficiency have been unable to capture the apparently constant and low nitrogen gross growth efficiency that characterizes egg production in marine copepods. A new model of egg production is presented based

  7. C and N gross efficiencies of copepod egg production studies using a dynamic energy budget model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, L.D.J.; Anderson, T.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2003-01-01

    Simple stoichiometric models based on the principle that limiting elements are used with high efficiency have been unable to capture the apparently constant and low nitrogen gross growth efficiency that characterizes egg production in marine copepods. A new model of egg production is presented based

  8. The surface heat budget of Hudson Bay

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Danielson, E.W

    1969-01-01

    ... which information the heat budget calculations are based. These data include surface air and sea temperatures, ice concentration, cloudiness, wind, atmospheric moisture, ice and water movement, and heat storage amounts within Hudson Bay waters...

  9. Modeling Equity for Alternative Water Rate Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, R.; Mjelde, J.

    2011-12-01

    The rising popularity of increasing block rates for urban water runs counter to mainstream economic recommendations, yet decision makers in rate design forums are attracted to the notion of higher prices for larger users. Among economists, it is widely appreciated that uniform rates have stronger efficiency properties than increasing block rates, especially when volumetric prices incorporate intrinsic water value. Yet, except for regions where water market purchases have forced urban authorities to include water value in water rates, economic arguments have weakly penetrated policy. In this presentation, recent evidence will be reviewed regarding long term trends in urban rate structures while observing economic principles pertaining to these choices. The main objective is to investigate the equity of increasing block rates as contrasted to uniform rates for a representative city. Using data from four Texas cities, household water demand is established as a function of marginal price, income, weather, number of residents, and property characteristics. Two alternative rate proposals are designed on the basis of recent experiences for both water and wastewater rates. After specifying a reasonable number (~200) of diverse households populating the city and parameterizing each household's characteristics, every household's consumption selections are simulated for twelve months. This procedure is repeated for both rate systems. Monthly water and wastewater bills are also computed for each household. Most importantly, while balancing the budget of the city utility we compute the effect of switching rate structures on the welfares of households of differing types. Some of the empirical findings are as follows. Under conditions of absent water scarcity, households of opposing characters such as low versus high income do not have strong preferences regarding rate structure selection. This changes as water scarcity rises and as water's opportunity costs are allowed to

  10. Measurements of the summer surface heat budget of the Northeast Water Polynya. USCGC Polar Sea cruise, July 15--August 15, 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minnett, P.J.

    1994-03-01

    A research cruise of the USCGC Polar Sea to the Northeast Water Polynya, off the eastern coast of Greenland (77--81{degree}N, 6--17{degree}W), was made from mid-July to mid-August of 1992 (NEWP `92) as the first field component of the multi-disciplinary study of a high-Arctic polynya funded by the NSF as part of the Arctic Systems Science program. Instruments to measure the components of the surface heat budget of the polynya were installed on a foremast at the bow of the ship. This report presents the measured variables and derived surface fluxes in graphical and tabulated form. Profiles of atmospheric temperature and humidity were taken using radiosondes, and these are also presented.

  11. WATER LAW AND MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE WATER USAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitri Olegovitch Sivakov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As it is known, the water law regulates dynamic social relationships concerning study, usage and protection of water objects, as well as their transformation. The water law explicitly regulates water economic activities. The regulatory method of the water law has a mixed nature and thus is not distinctive. It predetermines in some cases equality and independence of subjects of relationships (water usage agreement and in other – power and submission (permissive nature of water usage. The aim of the publication is to promote scientific ideas about the fate of the water law in order to make a further polygonal and productive discussion in which the reader is invited to participate. Scientific novelty. In 2016 the monograph of D.O. Sivakov “Water law: dynamics, problems, perspectives: monograph” (second edition, reviewed and updated. Moscow: Stolitsa, 2016. 540 p. was published. In 2017 the author reconsidered some conclusions of his monograph and applied scientific achievements of theory of state and law in water sphere. In accordance with this, it is important to mention research of Petrov D.E. related to issues of differentiation and integration of structural formations of Russian legal system. The scientific novelty of the article includes the synthesis of ideas of the monograph and some achievements of theory of state and law. Methods of research. The author of the article relies on some collective and individual monographic studies in the sphere of theory of state and law, natural resource law, arctic law, financial law. Basic results of research. The author promotes the model of responsible water usage. This model shall be based not on the unstable balance of economic and environmental interests (which shall practically lead to the domination of economic interests, but on the obligatory combination of economic activities with technologies, ensuring maximal preservation of water resources. Responsible water usage shall mean a system of

  12. Automated Budget System -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Automated Budget System (ABS) automates management and planning of the Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center (MMAC) budget by providing enhanced capability to plan,...

  13. An Energy Budget Model to Calculate the Low Atmosphere Profiles of Effective Sound Speed at Night

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tunick, Arnold

    2003-01-01

    ...) for generating low atmosphere profiles of effective sound speed at night. The alternate model is based on the solution of a quartic equation for surface temperature, which assumes a balance between the net long wave...

  14. Effect of surface albedo, water vapour, and atmospheric aerosols on the cloud-free shortwave radiative budget in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Biagio, C. [ENEA, Laboratory for Earth Observations and Analyses, Rome (Italy); University of Siena, Department of Earth Science, Siena (Italy); Di Sarra, A. [ENEA, Laboratory for Earth Observations and Analyses, Rome (Italy); Eriksen, P. [Danish Climate Centre, DMI, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark); Ascanius, S.E. [DMI, Danish Meteorological Institute, Qaanaaq (Greenland); Muscari, G. [INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome (Italy); Holben, B. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    This study is based on ground-based measurements of downward surface shortwave irradiance (SW), columnar water vapour (wv), and aerosol optical depth ({tau}) obtained at Thule Air Base (Greenland) in 2007-2010, together with MODIS observations of the surface shortwave albedo (A). Radiative transfer model calculations are used in combination with measurements to separate the radiative effect of A ({Delta}SW{sub A}), wv ({Delta}SW{sub wv}), and aerosols ({Delta}SW{sub {tau}}) in modulating SW in cloud-free conditions. The shortwave radiation at the surface is mainly affected by water vapour absorption, which produces a reduction of SW as low as -100 Wm{sup -2} (-18%). The seasonal change of A produces an increase of SW by up to +25 Wm{sup -2} (+4.5%). The annual mean radiative effect is estimated to be -(21-22) Wm{sup -2} for wv, and +(2-3) Wm{sup -2} for A. An increase by +0.065 cm in the annual mean wv, to which corresponds an absolute increase in {Delta}SW{sub wv} by 0.93 Wm{sup -2} (4.3%), has been observed to occur between 2007 and 2010. In the same period, the annual mean A has decreased by -0.027, with a corresponding decrease in {Delta}SW{sub A} by 0.41 Wm{sup -2} (-14.9%). Atmospheric aerosols produce a reduction of SW as low as -32 Wm{sup -2} (-6.7%). The instantaneous aerosol radiative forcing (RF{sub {tau}}) reaches values of -28 Wm{sup -2} and shows a strong dependency on surface albedo. The derived radiative forcing efficiency (FE{sub {tau}}) for solar zenith angles between 55 and 70 is estimated to be (-120.6 {+-} 4.3) for 0.1 < A < 0.2, and (-41.2 {+-} 1.6) Wm{sup -2} for 0.5 < A < 0.6. (orig.)

  15. STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY REGRESSION MODELING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY REGRESSION MODELING OF IMO RIVER SYSTEM: A CASE STUDY. ... Journal of Modeling, Design and Management of Engineering Systems ... Possible sources of contamination of Imo-river system within Nekede and Obigbo hydrological stations watershed were traced.

  16. Water budgets and groundwater volumes for abandoned underground mines in the Western Middle Anthracite Coalfield, Schuylkill, Columbia, and Northumberland Counties, Pennsylvania-Preliminary estimates with identification of data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goode, Daniel J.; Cravotta, Charles A.; Hornberger, Roger J.; Hewitt, Michael A.; Hughes, Robert E.; Koury, Daniel J.; Eicholtz, Lee W.

    2011-01-01

    This report, prepared in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PaDEP), the Eastern Pennsylvania Coalition for Abandoned Mine Reclamation, and the Dauphin County Conservation District, provides estimates of water budgets and groundwater volumes stored in abandoned underground mines in the Western Middle Anthracite Coalfield, which encompasses an area of 120 square miles in eastern Pennsylvania. The estimates are based on preliminary simulations using a groundwater-flow model and an associated geographic information system that integrates data on the mining features, hydrogeology, and streamflow in the study area. The Mahanoy and Shamokin Creek Basins were the focus of the study because these basins exhibit extensive hydrologic effects and water-quality degradation from the abandoned mines in their headwaters in the Western Middle Anthracite Coalfield. Proposed groundwater withdrawals from the flooded parts of the mines and stream-channel modifications in selected areas have the potential for altering the distribution of groundwater and the interaction between the groundwater and streams in the area. Preliminary three-dimensional, steady-state simulations of groundwater flow by the use of MODFLOW are presented to summarize information on the exchange of groundwater among adjacent mines and to help guide the management of ongoing data collection, reclamation activities, and water-use planning. The conceptual model includes high-permeability mine voids that are connected vertically and horizontally within multicolliery units (MCUs). MCUs were identified on the basis of mine maps, locations of mine discharges, and groundwater levels in the mines measured by PaDEP. The locations and integrity of mine barriers were determined from mine maps and groundwater levels. The permeability of intact barriers is low, reflecting the hydraulic characteristics of unmined host rock and coal. A steady-state model was calibrated to measured groundwater

  17. A theoretical model of water and trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Qian; Konar, Megan; Reimer, Jeffrey J.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Lin, Xiaowen; Zeng, Ruijie

    2016-03-01

    Water is an essential input for agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of agricultural commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that emphasizes four tradeoffs involving water-use decision-making that are important yet not always considered in a consistent framework. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different economic sectors. A second tradeoff examines the possibility that certain types of agricultural investments can offset water use. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using commodities. The fourth tradeoff concerns how variability in water supplies influences farmer decision-making. We show conditions under which trade liberalization affect water use. Two policy scenarios to reduce water use are evaluated. First, we derive a target tax that reduces water use without offsetting the gains from trade liberalization, although important tradeoffs exist between economic performance and resource use. Second, we show how subsidization of water-saving technologies can allow producers to use less water without reducing agricultural production, making such subsidization an indirect means of influencing water use decision-making. Finally, we outline conditions under which riskiness of water availability affects water use. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

  18. Water sound recognition based on physical models

    OpenAIRE

    Guyot, Patrice; PINQUIER, Julien; André-Obrecht, Régine

    2013-01-01

    This article describes an audio signal processing algorithm to detect water sounds, built in the context of a larger system aiming to monitor daily activities of elderly people. While previous proposals for water sound recognition relied on classical machine learning and generic audio features to characterize water sounds as a flow texture, we describe here a recognition system based on a physical model of air bubble acoustics. This system is able to recognize a wide variety of water sounds a...

  19. Integrated water resources modelling for assessing sustainable water governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoulikaris, Charalampos; Ganoulis, Jacques; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Makropoulos, Christos; Gkatzogianni, Eleni; Michas, Spyros

    2015-04-01

    Climatic variations and resulting future uncertainties, increasing anthropogenic pressures, changes in political boundaries, ineffective or dysfunctional governance of natural resources and environmental degradation are some of the most fundamental challenges with which worldwide initiatives fostering the "think globally, act locally" concept are concerned. Different initiatives target the protection of the environment through sustainable development; Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and Transboundary Water Resources Management (TWRM) in the case of internationally shared waters are frameworks that have gained wide political acceptance at international level and form part of water resources management planning and implementation on a global scale. Both concepts contribute in promoting economic efficiency, social equity and environmental sustainability. Inspired by these holistic management approaches, the present work describes an effort that uses integrated water resources modelling for the development of an integrated, coherent and flexible water governance tool. This work in which a sequence of computer based models and tools are linked together, aims at the evaluation of the sustainable operation of projects generating renewable energy from water as well as the sustainability of agricultural demands and environmental security in terms of environmental flow under various climatic and operational conditions. More specifically, catchment hydrological modelling is coupled with dams' simulation models and thereafter with models dedicated to water resources management and planning,while the bridging of models is conducted through geographic information systems and custom programming tools. For the case of Mesta/Nestos river basin different priority rules in the dams' operational schedule (e.g. priority given to power production as opposed to irrigation needs and vice versa), as well as different irrigation demands, e.g. current water demands as opposed to

  20. Modeling Benthic Sediment Processes to Predict Water ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The benthic sediment acts as a huge reservoir of particulate and dissolved material (within interstitial water) which can contribute to loading of contaminants and nutrients to the water column. A benthic sediment model is presented in this report to predict spatial and temporal benthic fluxes of nutrients and chemicals in Narragansett Bay. A benthic sediment model is presented in this report to identify benthic flux into the water column in Narragansett Bay. Benthic flux is essential to properly model water quality and ecology in estuarine and coastal systems.

  1. Teaching Wound Care Management: A Model for the Budget Conscious Educator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, David C.

    2012-01-01

    For the author, the concept of wound care has always been a challenging topic to demonstrate. How to teach the concept without having a student in need of wound care or without having to spend money to buy another simulation manikin/model? The author has recently created a simulation to demonstrate and practice the cleaning, closing, and dressing…

  2. An end-to-end model of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) Earth-viewing nonscanning radiometric channels

    OpenAIRE

    Priestly, Kory James

    1993-01-01

    The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) active-cavity radiometers are used to measure the incoming solar, reflected solar, and emitted longwave radiation from the Earth and its atmosphere. The radiometers are carried by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 spacecraft. Four Earth-viewing nonscanning active-cavity radiometers are carried by e...

  3. Development of an interdisciplinary model cluster for tidal water environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Stephan; Winterscheid, Axel; Jens, Wyrwa; Hartmut, Hein; Birte, Hein; Stefan, Vollmer; Andreas, Schöl

    2013-04-01

    Global climate change has a high potential to influence both the persistence and the transport pathways of water masses and its constituents in tidal waters and estuaries. These processes are linked through dispersion processes, thus directly influencing the sediment and solid suspend matter budgets, and thus the river morphology. Furthermore, the hydrologic regime has an impact on the transport of nutrients, phytoplankton, suspended matter, and temperature that determine the oxygen content within water masses, which is a major parameter describing the water quality. This project aims at the implementation of a so-called (numerical) model cluster in tidal waters, which includes the model compartments hydrodynamics, morphology and ecology. For the implementation of this cluster it is required to continue with the integration of different models that work in a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The model cluster is thus suggested to lead to a more precise knowledge of the feedback processes between the single interdisciplinary model compartments. In addition to field measurements this model cluster will provide a complementary scientific basis required to address a spectrum of research questions concerning the integral management of estuaries within the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG, Germany). This will in particular include aspects like sediment and water quality management as well as adaptation strategies to climate change. The core of the model cluster will consist of the 3D-hydrodynamic model Delft3D (Roelvink and van Banning, 1994), long-term hydrodynamics in the estuaries are simulated with the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model HAMSOM (Backhaus, 1983; Hein et al., 2012). The simulation results will be compared with the unstructured grid based SELFE model (Zhang and Bapista, 2008). The additional coupling of the BfG-developed 1D-water quality model QSim (Kirchesch and Schöl, 1999; Hein et al., 2011) with the morphological/hydrodynamic models is an

  4. Assessment of the terrestrial water balance using the global water availability and use model WaterGAP - status and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Döll, Petra

    2017-04-01

    The estimation of the World's water resources has a long tradition and numerous methods for quantification exists. The resulting numbers vary significantly, leaving room for improvement. Since some decades, global hydrological models (GHMs) are being used for large scale water budget assessments. GHMs are designed to represent the macro-scale hydrological processes and many of those models include human water management, e.g. irrigation or reservoir operation, making them currently the first choice for global scale assessments of the terrestrial water balance within the Anthropocene. The Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) is a model framework that comprises both the natural and human water dimension and is in development and application since the 1990s. In recent years, efforts were made to assess the sensitivity of water balance components to alternative climate forcing input data and, e.g., how this sensitivity is affected by WaterGAP's calibration scheme. This presentation shows the current best estimate of terrestrial water balance components as simulated with WaterGAP by 1) assessing global and continental water balance components for the climate period 1971-2000 and the IPCC reference period 1986-2005 for the most current WaterGAP version using a homogenized climate forcing data, 2) investigating variations of water balance components for a number of state-of-the-art climate forcing data and 3) discussing the benefit of the calibration approach for a better observation-data constrained global water budget. For the most current WaterGAP version 2.2b and a homogenized combination of the two WATCH Forcing Datasets, global scale (excluding Antarctica and Greenland) river discharge into oceans and inland sinks (Q) is assessed to be 40 000 km3 yr-1 for 1971-2000 and 39 200 km3 yr-1 for 1986-2005. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is close to each other with around 70 600 (70 700) km3 yr-1 as well as water consumption with 1000 (1100) km3 yr-1. The

  5. STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY REGRESSION MODELING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The upper reaches of Imo-river system between Nekede and Obigbo hydrological stations (a stretch of 24km) have been studied for the purpose of water quality and streamflow modeling. Model's applications on water supply to Nekede and Obigbo communities were equally explored with the development of mass curves.

  6. Water regime of Playa Lakes from southern Spain: conditioning factors and hydrological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Miguel; Beltrán, Manuel; Benavente, José; Cifuentes, Victor Juan

    2013-07-01

    Andalusia's lowland countryside has a network of small geographically isolated playa lakes scattered across an area of 9000 km2 whose watersheds are mostly occupied by clayey rocks. The hydrological model proposed by the authors seeks to find equilibrium among usefulness, simplicity, and applicability to isolated playas in a semiarid context elsewhere. Based in such model, the authors have used monthly climatic data, water stage measurements, and the basin morphometry of a particular case (Los Jarales playa lake) to calibrate the soil water budget in the catchment and the water inputs from the watershed (runoff plus groundwater flow) at different scales, from monthly to daily. After the hydrologic model was calibrated, the authors implemented simulations with the goal of reproducing the past hydrological dynamics and forecasting water regime changes that would be caused by a modification of the wetland morphometry.

  7. A Theoretical Model of Water and Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Q.; Konar, M.; Reimer, J.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Lin, X.; Zeng, R.

    2015-12-01

    Water is an essential factor of agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of food commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model of a small open economy that explicitly incorporates water resources. The model emphasizes three tradeoffs involving water decision-making that are important yet not always considered within the existing literature. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different sectors when there is a shock to one of the sectors only, such as trade liberalization and consequent higher demand for the product. A second tradeoff concerns the possibility that there may or may not be substitutes for water, such as increased use of sophisticated irrigation technology as a means to increase crop output in the absence of higher water availability. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using products. A number of propositions are proven. For example, while trade liberalization tends to increase water use, increased pressure on water supplies can be moderated by way of a tax that is derivable with observable economic phenomena. Another example is that increased riskiness of water availability tends to cause water users to use less water than would be the case under profit maximization. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

  8. The chlorine budget of the present-day atmosphere - A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, Nien-Dak

    1992-01-01

    The contribution of source gases to the total amount of inorganic chlorine (ClY) is examined analytically with a time-dependent model employing 11 source gases. The source-gas emission data are described, and the modeling methodology is set forth with attention given to the data interpretation. The abundances and distributions are obtained for all 11 source gases with corresponding ClY production rates and mixing ratios. It is shown that the ClY production rate and the ClY mixing ratio for each source gas are spatially dependent, and the change in the relative contributions from 1950 to 1990 is given. Ozone changes in the past decade are characterized by losses in the polar and midlatitude lower stratosphere. The values for CFC-11, CCl4, and CH3CCl3 suggest that they are more evident in the lower stratosphere than is suggested by steady-state estimates based on surface concentrations.

  9. Budgeting based on need: a model to determine sub-national allocation of resources for health services in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ensor Tim

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Allocating national resources to regions based on need is a key policy issue in most health systems. Many systems utilise proxy measures of need as the basis for allocation formulae. Increasingly these are underpinned by complex statistical methods to separate need from supplier induced utilisation. Assessment of need is then used to allocate existing global budgets to geographic areas. Many low and middle income countries are beginning to use formula methods for funding however these attempts are often hampered by a lack of information on utilisation, relative needs and whether the budgets allocated bear any relationship to cost. An alternative is to develop bottom-up estimates of the cost of providing for local need. This method is viable where public funding is focused on a relatively small number of targeted services. We describe a bottom-up approach to developing a formula for the allocation of resources. The method is illustrated in the context of the state minimum service package mandated to be provided by the Indonesian public health system. Methods A standardised costing methodology was developed that is sensitive to the main expected drivers of local cost variation including demographic structure, epidemiology and location. Essential package costing is often undertaken at a country level. It is less usual to utilise the methods across different parts of a country in a way that takes account of variation in population needs and location. Costing was based on best clinical practice in Indonesia and province specific data on distribution and costs of facilities. The resulting model was used to estimate essential package costs in a representative district in each province of the country. Findings Substantial differences in the costs of providing basic services ranging from USD 15 in urban Yogyakarta to USD 48 in sparsely populated North Maluku. These costs are driven largely by the structure of the population

  10. Budgeting based on need: a model to determine sub-national allocation of resources for health services in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensor, Tim; Firdaus, Hafidz; Dunlop, David; Manu, Alex; Mukti, Ali Ghufron; Ayu Puspandari, Diah; von Roenne, Franz; Indradjaya, Stephanus; Suseno, Untung; Vaughan, Patrick

    2012-08-29

    Allocating national resources to regions based on need is a key policy issue in most health systems. Many systems utilise proxy measures of need as the basis for allocation formulae. Increasingly these are underpinned by complex statistical methods to separate need from supplier induced utilisation. Assessment of need is then used to allocate existing global budgets to geographic areas. Many low and middle income countries are beginning to use formula methods for funding however these attempts are often hampered by a lack of information on utilisation, relative needs and whether the budgets allocated bear any relationship to cost. An alternative is to develop bottom-up estimates of the cost of providing for local need. This method is viable where public funding is focused on a relatively small number of targeted services. We describe a bottom-up approach to developing a formula for the allocation of resources. The method is illustrated in the context of the state minimum service package mandated to be provided by the Indonesian public health system. A standardised costing methodology was developed that is sensitive to the main expected drivers of local cost variation including demographic structure, epidemiology and location. Essential package costing is often undertaken at a country level. It is less usual to utilise the methods across different parts of a country in a way that takes account of variation in population needs and location. Costing was based on best clinical practice in Indonesia and province specific data on distribution and costs of facilities. The resulting model was used to estimate essential package costs in a representative district in each province of the country. Substantial differences in the costs of providing basic services ranging from USD 15 in urban Yogyakarta to USD 48 in sparsely populated North Maluku. These costs are driven largely by the structure of the population, particularly numbers of births, infants and children and also key

  11. Estimating regional distribution of surface heat fluxes by combining satellite data and a heat budget model over the Kherlen River Basin, Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsushima, Dai

    2007-01-01

    SummaryThe regional distribution of surface heat fluxes and related parameters over a semi-arid region was estimated using a technique that incorporates the thermal-infrared brightness temperature from a satellite into a heat budget model of land surface including vegetation canopy. We studied the western part of the Kherlen River Basin in Mongolia, where typical steppe dominates, including forest-steppe in the northern part and dry-steppe in the southern part of the basin. Our goal was to estimate the temporal change of surface heat fluxes at a location in the typical steppe over a growing season, and to estimate the spatial distribution of surface heat fluxes over the study area. Seven parameters, including the bulk transfer coefficients, the evaporation efficiency, and the subsurface thermal inertia, which are relevant to the surface heat fluxes, were optimized employing the simplex method. To compensate for insufficient satellite data samples to reproduce the diurnal change of surface heat fluxes, the spatial distribution of the surface brightness temperature was used in the optimization rather than using diurnal change, which is referred to as spatial optimization. Diurnal changes in the surface heat fluxes estimated by spatial optimization were validated by observation. The surface heat fluxes were reasonably accurately reproduced on a daily basis, with the root-mean-squares error of the sensible and the latent heat within 15 W m -2 over the growing season. The evaporation efficiency of canopy and the subsurface thermal inertia optimized in this study correlated well with the volumetric soil water content in a shallow layer on a daily basis, which suggests that thermal inertia can be an indicator of water conditions in a shallow subsurface layer. Spatial distribution of estimated sensible and latent heat after rainfall on successive summer days is discussed.

  12. Modelling study of boundary-layer ozone over northern China - Part I: Ozone budget in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Guiqian; Zhu, Xiaowan; Xin, Jinyuan; Hu, Bo; Song, Tao; Sun, Yang; Zhang, Jinqiang; Wang, Lili; Cheng, Mengtian; Chao, Na; Kong, Lingbin; Li, Xin; Wang, Yuesi

    2017-05-01

    Regional photochemical pollution caused by ozone (O3) is serious in northern China during summer. In this study, we combined network observation data with the Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State/National Centre for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model -Community Multiscale Air Quality (MM5-CMAQ) model system to simulate O3 and its precursors'concentrations over northern China in June 2008. Comparisons of the simulations and observations indicate that the model can accurately reproduce the temporal and spatial distributions of temperature, humidity, and wind as well as the evolution of O3 and its precursors over northern China. The monthly mean of the total oxidants (nitrogen dioxide + O3) at 15:00 LT exceeded 90 ppbv across the North China Plain, thereby indicating significant photochemical pollution in this area. Vertical diffusion is the main source of the near-ground O3, with contributions of more than 20 ppbv h- 1 in the urban areas. Dry deposition and chemical reactions are the main sinks for O3, with contributions of more than 20 ppbv h- 1 and 7 ppbv h- 1 in the forest and urban areas, respectively. Although vertical diffusion is the main source of near-ground O3, photochemical reactions dominate the O3 concentrations in the boundary layer because of the circulation between the lower and upper boundary layers. Considering that O3 is mainly produced in the upper boundary layer, both nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compounds should be controlled on the North China Plain. The results presented here are intended to provide guidance for redefining strategies to control photochemical pollution over northern China.

  13. Global atmospheric budget of acetaldehyde: 3-D model analysis and constraints from in-situ and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Millet

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available We construct a global atmospheric budget for acetaldehyde using a 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem, and use an ensemble of observations to evaluate present understanding of its sources and sinks. Hydrocarbon oxidation provides the largest acetaldehyde source in the model (128 Tg a−1, a factor of 4 greater than the previous estimate, with alkanes, alkenes, and ethanol the main precursors. There is also a minor source from isoprene oxidation. We use an updated chemical mechanism for GEOS-Chem, and photochemical acetaldehyde yields are consistent with the Master Chemical Mechanism. We present a new approach to quantifying the acetaldehyde air-sea flux based on the global distribution of light absorption due to colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM derived from satellite ocean color observations. The resulting net ocean emission is 57 Tg a−1, the second largest global source of acetaldehyde. A key uncertainty is the acetaldehyde turnover time in the ocean mixed layer, with quantitative model evaluation over the ocean complicated by known measurement artifacts in clean air. Simulated concentrations in surface air over the ocean generally agree well with aircraft measurements, though the model tends to overestimate the vertical gradient. PAN:NOx ratios are well-simulated in the marine boundary layer, providing some support for the modeled ocean source. We introduce the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1 for acetaldehyde and ethanol and use it to quantify their net flux from living terrestrial plants. Including emissions from decaying plants the total direct acetaldehyde source from the land biosphere is 23 Tg a−1. Other terrestrial acetaldehyde sources include biomass burning (3 Tg a−1 and anthropogenic emissions (2 Tg a−1. Simulated concentrations in the continental boundary layer are generally unbiased and capture the spatial

  14. Particulate nitrogen and phosphorus in the East China Sea and its adjacent Kuroshio waters and evaluation of budgets for the East China Sea Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Jiulong; Song, Jinming; Yuan, Huamao; Li, Xuegang; Li, Ning; Duan, Liqin

    2016-12-01

    Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in suspended particles are important to the cycles of N and P in marine ecosystem. Suspended particles were collected from the East China Sea (ECS) and its adjacent Kuroshio waters to investigate the composing and distribution characteristics of particulate inorganic and organic nitrogen and phosphorus (PIN, PIP, PON and POP, respectively). The particulate N and P concentrations were fairly low in the Kuroshio water but much higher in the ECS water, especially in nearshore waters. PON and PIP were the dominant forms of particulate N and P, with an exception that POP was the major form of particulate P in the Kuroshio upper water. The regime of particulate N and P in the ECS was strongly influenced by riverine input, oceanic input, ocean current and photosynthesis. Among them, PON and POP were mainly from biogenic source, while PIN and PIP were originated from biogenic and external sources. And sedimentation, remineralization and resuspension were important influencing factors for the vertical distributions of particulate N and P. The budgets of particulate N and P for the ECS Shelf during rainy season (May-October) were also evaluated. The total particulate N and P (TPN and TPP) fluxes from oceanic input are respectively 10.99 and 2.49 times of those from riverine input. And oceanic input contains more POP, which is liable to be decomposed into phosphate, than riverine input. Furthermore, particulate nutrients fluxes from photosynthesis are the overriding source of total influxes for the ECS Shelf, accounting for 90.93% of TPN and 89.37% of TPP influxes. As for the photosynthetic fixed N and P, only 6.17% and 7.60% of them can reach the seafloor, while up to 87.73% and 60.06% of them are likely to be remineralized. The POP-rich oceanic input and the intensive photosynthesis and remineralization processes play important roles in the biogeochemical cycles of N and P in the ECS.

  15. Water quality modelling of Jadro spring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margeta, J; Fistanic, I

    2004-01-01

    Management of water quality in karst is a specific problem. Water generally moves very fast by infiltration processes but far more by concentrated flows through fissures and openings in karst. This enables the entire surface pollution to be transferred fast and without filtration into groundwater springs. A typical example is the Jadro spring. Changes in water quality at the spring are sudden, but short. Turbidity as a major water quality problem for the karst springs regularly exceeds allowable standards. Former practice in problem solving has been reduced to intensive water disinfection in periods of great turbidity without analyses of disinfection by-products risks for water users. The main prerequisite for water quality control and an optimization of water disinfection is the knowledge of raw water quality and nature of occurrence. The analysis of monitoring data and their functional relationship with hydrological parameters enables establishment of a stochastic model that will help obtain better information on turbidity in different periods of the year. Using the model a great number of average monthly and extreme daily values are generated. By statistical analyses of these data possibility of occurrence of high turbidity in certain months is obtained. This information can be used for designing expert system for water quality management of karst springs. Thus, the time series model becomes a valuable tool in management of drinking water quality of the Jadro spring.

  16. A system model for water management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, Colin; Roquier, Bastien; Soutter, Marc; Mermoud, André

    2009-03-01

    Although generally accepted as a necessary step to improve water management and planning, integrated water resources management (IWRM) methodology does not provide a clear definition of what should be integrated. The various water-related issues that IWRM might encompass are well documented in the literature, but they are generally addressed separately. Therefore, water management lacks a holistic, systems-based description, with a special emphasis on the interrelations between issues. This article presents such a system model for water management, including a graphical representation and textual descriptions of the various water issues, their components, and their interactions. This model is seen as an aide-memoire and a generic reference, providing background knowledge helping to elicit actual system definitions, in possible combination with other participatory systems approaches. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through its application to two test case studies.

  17. Error budget analysis of SCIAMACHY limb ozone profile retrievals using the SCIATRAN model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Rahpoe

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive error characterization of SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric CHartographY limb ozone profiles has been established based upon SCIATRAN transfer model simulations. The study was carried out in order to evaluate the possible impact of parameter uncertainties, e.g. in albedo, stratospheric aerosol optical extinction, temperature, pressure, pointing, and ozone absorption cross section on the limb ozone retrieval. Together with the a posteriori covariance matrix available from the retrieval, total random and systematic errors are defined for SCIAMACHY ozone profiles. Main error sources are the pointing errors, errors in the knowledge of stratospheric aerosol parameters, and cloud interference. Systematic errors are of the order of 7%, while the random error amounts to 10–15% for most of the stratosphere. These numbers can be used for the interpretation of instrument intercomparison and validation of the SCIAMACHY V 2.5 limb ozone profiles in a rigorous manner.

  18. Balancing regional sea level budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuliette, E. W.; Miller, L.; Tamisiea, M. E.

    2015-12-01

    Balancing the sea-level budget is critical to understanding recent and future climate change as well as balancing Earth's energy budget and water budget. During the last decade, advancements in the ocean observing system — satellite altimeters, hydrographic profiling floats, and space-based gravity missions — have allowed the global mean sea level budget to?be assessed with unprecedented accuracy from direct, rather than inferred, estimates. In particular, several recent studies have used the sea-level budget to bound the rate of deep ocean warming [e.g. Llovel et al. 2014]. On a monthly basis, the sum of the steric component estimated from Argo and the ocean mass (barostatic) component from GRACE agree total sea level from Jason within the estimated uncertainties with the residual difference having an r.m.s. of less than 2 mm [Leuliette 2014]. Direct measurements of ocean warming above 2000 m depth during January 2005 and July 2015 explain about one-third of the observed annual rate of global mean sea-level rise. Extending the understanding of the sea-level budget from global mean sea level to regional patterns of sea level change is crucial for identifying regional differences in recent sea level change. The local sea-level budget can be used to identify any systematic errors in the global ocean observing system. Using the residuals from closing the sea level budget, we demonstrate that systematic regional errors remain, in part due to Argo sampling. We also show the effect of applying revised geocentric pole-tide corrections for GRACE [Wahr et al. 2015] and altimetry [Desai et al., 2015].

  19. Precipitation and Runoff Simulations of the Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains, and Updated Estimates of Ground-Water Inflow and the Ground-Water Budgets for Basin-Fill Aquifers of Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeton, Anne E.; Maurer, Douglas K.

    2007-01-01

    Recent estimates of ground-water inflow to the basin-fill aquifers of Carson Valley, Nevada, and California, from the adjacent Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains ranged from 22,000 to 40,000 acre-feet per year using water-yield and chloride-balance methods. In this study, watershed models were developed for watersheds with perennial streams and for watersheds with ephemeral streams in the Carson Range and Pine Nut Mountains to provide an independent estimate of ground-water inflow. This report documents the development and calibration of the watershed models, presents model results, compares the results with recent estimates of ground-water inflow to the basin-fill aquifers of Carson Valley, and presents updated estimates of the ground-water budget for basin-fill aquifers of Carson Valley. The model used for the study was the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Geographic Information System software was used to manage spatial data, characterize model drainages, and to develop Hydrologic Response Units. Models were developed for * Two watersheds with gaged perennial streams in the Carson Range and two watersheds with gaged perennial streams in the Pine Nut Mountains using measured daily mean runoff, * Ten watersheds with ungaged perennial streams using estimated daily mean runoff, * Ten watershed with ungaged ephemeral streams in the Carson Range, and * A large area of ephemeral runoff near the Pine Nut Mountains. Models developed for the gaged watersheds were used as index models to guide the calibration of models for ungaged watersheds. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for 4 gaged watersheds and for 10 ungaged watersheds in the Carson Range estimated in a previous study. The models were further constrained by annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study to provide

  20. Secondary flow structure in a model curved artery: 3D morphology and circulation budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulusu, Kartik V.; Plesniak, Michael W.

    2015-11-01

    In this study, we examined the rate of change of circulation within control regions encompassing the large-scale vortical structures associated with secondary flows, i.e. deformed Dean-, Lyne- and Wall-type (D-L-W) vortices at planar cross-sections in a 180° curved artery model (curvature ratio, 1/7). Magnetic resonance velocimetry (MRV) and particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiments were performed independently, under the same physiological inflow conditions (Womersley number, 4.2) and using Newtonian blood-analog fluids. The MRV-technique performed at Stanford University produced phase-averaged, three-dimensional velocity fields. Secondary flow field comparisons of MRV-data to PIV-data at various cross-sectional planes and inflow phases were made. A wavelet-decomposition-based approach was implemented to characterize various secondary flow morphologies. We hypothesize that the persistence and decay of arterial secondary flow vortices is intrinsically related to the influence of the out-of-plane flow, tilting, in-plane convection and diffusion-related factors within the control regions. Evaluation of these factors will elucidate secondary flow structures in arterial hemodynamics. Supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Number CBET-0828903, and GW Center for Biomimetics and Bioinspired Engineering (COBRE). The MRV data were acquired at Stanford University in collaboration with Christopher Elkins and John Eaton.

  1. A Defense Budget Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-12-09

    budget practices. See Appendix D for the actual timetable of congressional action on the FY1999 budget.65 See James V. Saturno , The Appropriations...details, see James V. Saturno , The Appropriations Process and the Congressional69 Budget Act, CRS Report 97-947. Table 6. Milestone Votes on the Defense...James V. Saturno , The74 Appropriations Process and the Congressional Budget Act, CRS Report 97-947. The Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 and subsequent

  2. Bank Erosion, Mass Wasting, Water Clarity, Bathymetry and a Sediment Budget Along the Dam-Regulated Lower Roanoke River, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, Edward R.; Hupp, Cliff R.; Richter, Jean M.; Kroes, Daniel E.

    2010-01-01

    Dam construction and its impact on downstream fluvial processes may substantially alter ambient bank stability, floodplain inundation patterns, and channel morphology. Most of the world's largest rivers have been dammed, which has prompted management efforts to mitigate dam effects. Three high dams (completed between 1953 and 1963) occur along the Piedmont portion of the Roanoke River, North Carolina; just downstream, the lower part of the river flows across largely unconsolidated Coastal Plain deposits. To document bank erosion rates along the lower Roanoke River, more than 700 bank erosion pins were installed along 124 bank transects. Additionally, discrete measurements of channel bathymetry, water clarity, and presence or absence of mass wasting were documented along the entire 153-kilometer-long study reach. Amounts of bank erosion in combination with prior estimates of floodplain deposition were used to develop a bank erosion and floodplain deposition sediment budget for the lower river. Present bank erosion rates are relatively high [mean 42 milimeters per year (mm/yr)] and are greatest along the middle reaches (mean 60 mm/yr) and on lower parts of the bank on all reaches. Erosion rates were likely higher along upstream reaches than present erosion rates such that erosion rate maxima have migrated downstream. Mass wasting and water clarity also peak along the middle reaches.

  3. Development of EOS-aided procedures for the determination of the water balance of hydrologic budget of a large watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congalton, Russell G.; Thomas, Randall W.; Zinke, Paul J.

    1986-01-01

    Work focused on the acquisition of remotely sensed data for the 1985 to 1986 hydrogolic year; continuation of the field measurement program; continued acquisition and construction of passive microwave remote sensing instruments; a compilation of data necessary for an initial water balance computation; and participation with the EOS Simulataneity Team in reviewing the Feather River watershed as a possible site for a simultaneity experiment.

  4. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and generate runoff and pollutant loads. The routing portion of SWMM transports this runoff through a system of pipes, channels, storage/treatment devices, pumps, and regulators. SWMM tracks the quantity and quality of runoff generated within each subcatchment, and the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period comprised of multiple time steps. The reference manual for this edition of SWMM is comprised of three volumes. Volume I describes SWMM’s hydrologic models, Volume II its hydraulic models, and Volume III its water quality and low impact development models. Reference manual presenting underlying mathematics of the Storm Water Management Model - Volume III Water Quality Modules

  5. FY 1996 Congressional budget request: Budget highlights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-02-01

    The FY 1996 budget presentation is organized by the Department`s major business lines. An accompanying chart displays the request for new budget authority. The report compares the budget request for FY 1996 with the appropriated FY 1995 funding levels displayed on a comparable basis. The FY 1996 budget represents the first year of a five year plan in which the Department will reduce its spending by $15.8 billion in budget authority and by $14.1 billion in outlays. FY 1996 is a transition year as the Department embarks on its multiyear effort to do more with less. The Budget Highlights are presented by business line; however, the fifth business line, Economic Productivity, which is described in the Policy Overview section, cuts across multiple organizational missions, funding levels and activities and is therefore included in the discussion of the other four business lines.

  6. Modelling stable water isotopes: Status and perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Werner M.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Modelling of stable water isotopes H2 18O and HDO within various parts of the Earth’s hydrological cycle has clearly improved our understanding of the interplay between climatic variations and related isotope fractionation processes. In this article key principles and major research results of stable water isotope modelling studies are described. Emphasis is put on research work using explicit isotope diagnostics within general circulation models as this highly complex model setup bears many resemblances with studies using simpler isotope modelling approaches.

  7. Improving Climate Projections Through the Assessment of Model Uncertainty and Bias in the Global Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Noel C.

    The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); these simulations are ensemble-averaged to construct projections for the 21st century climate. However, a significant degree of bias and variability in the model simulations for the 20th century climate is well-known at both global and regional scales. Based on that insight, this study provides an alternative approach for constructing climate projections that incorporates knowledge of model bias. This approach is demonstrated to be a viable alternative which can be easily implemented by water resource managers for potentially more accurate projections. Tests of the new approach are provided on a global scale with an emphasis on semiarid regional studies for their particular vulnerability to water resource changes, using both the former CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and current Phase 5 (CMIP5) model archives. This investigation is accompanied by a detailed analysis of the dynamical processes and water budget to understand the behaviors and sources of model biases. Sensitivity studies of selected CMIP5 models are also performed with an atmospheric component model by testing the relationship between climate change forcings and model simulated response. The information derived from each study is used to determine the progressive quality of coupled climate models in simulating the global water cycle by rigorously investigating sources of model bias related to the moisture budget. As such, the conclusions of this project are highly relevant to model development and potentially may be used to further improve climate projections.

  8. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Ishida, A.; W. R. Kadir; P. Ladpala; Yamagata, Y.

    2011-01-01

    More reliable estimates of the carbon (C) stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT) was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia) and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia) to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems in Southeast Asia, including...

  9. Retirement decisions in a discrete choice model and implications for the government budget: the case of Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepermans, G

    1992-08-01

    "The purpose of this paper was to analyse the determinants of the retirement decision of the elderly in Belgium, and, by making some simulations, to find out what would be the financial implications for the government budget of changes in the social security system.... The largest effect on labor supply is caused by changes in pensionable age. Giving a lump-sum pension to part-time workers seems an interesting policy to withdraw individuals from the labor market at a relatively low cost. Introducing flexible retirement also is beneficial for the government budget and has, especially for women, a relatively large positive effect on labor supply." excerpt

  10. Modelling anisotropic water transport in polymer composite ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This work reports anisotropic water transport in a polymer composite consisting of an epoxy matrix reinforced with aligned triangular bars made of vinyl ester. By gravimetric experiments, water diffusion in resin and polymer composites were characterized. Parameters for Fickian diffusion and polymer relaxation models were ...

  11. Water Resource Assessment in KRS Reservoir Using Remote Sensing and GIS Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manubabu, V. H.; Gouda, K. C.; Bhat, N.; Reddy, A.

    2014-12-01

    In the recent time the fresh water resource becomes very important because of various reasons like population growth, pollution, over exploitation of the ground water resources etc. As there is no efficient and proper measures for recharging ground water exists and also the climatological impacts on water resources like global warming exacerbating water shortages, growing populations and rising demand for freshwater in agriculture, industry, and energy production. There is a need and challenging task for analyzing the future changes in regional water availability and it is also very much necessary to asses and predict the fresh water present in a lake or reservoir to make better decision making in the optimal usage of surface water. In the present study is intended to provide a practical discussion of methodology that deals with how to asses and predict amount of surface water available in the future using Remote Sensing(RS) data , Geographical Information System(GIS) techniques, and GCM (Global Circulation Model). Basically the study emphasized over one of the biggest reservoir i.e. the Krishna Raja Sagara (KRS) reservoir situated in the state of Karnataka in India. Multispectral satellite images like IRS LISS III and Landsat L8 from different open source web portals like NRSC-Bhuvan and NASA Earth Explorer respectively are used for the present analysis. The multispectral satellite images are used to identify the temporal changes of the water quantity in the reservoir for the period 2000 to 2014. Also the water volume are being calculated using Advances Space born Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global DEM over the reservoir basin. The hydro meteorological parameters are also studied using multi-source observed data and the empirical water budget models for the reservoir in terms of rainfall, temperature, run off, water inflow and outflow etc. are being developed and analyzed. Statistical analysis are also carried out to quantify the relation

  12. Water quality improvements from afforestation in an agricultural catchment in Denmark illustrated with the INCA model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastrup-Birk, A.; Gundersen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Intensive agricultural land use across Europe has altered nitrogen (N) budget of catchments substantially, causing widespread N pollution of freshwater. Although the N cycle in forests has changed due to increased N deposition, most forest soil waters in Europe have low nitrate concentrations...... (INCA) model. The model was calibrated on the Horndrup catchment in the eastern part of Jutland, Denmark, which is dominated by agricultural land use but also covered by 18% of forest land. The dynamics of nitrate concentrations in the stream water were simulated successfully by INCA over a three......-year period. The simulation of the dynamics of nitrate concentrations in the soil water is closely linked to the simulation of the hydrological dynamics and especially to the rainfall. The best fit was achieved for both arable and forest land during the wettest year of the study period. The model...

  13. EWAM: a model for predicting food and water ingestion, and inhalation rates of man

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zach, R.; Barnard, J.W.

    1985-09-01

    A computer model, EWAM (Energy, Water and Air Model), has been designed and implemented for predicting food and water ingestion, and inhalation rates of man for use in environmental assessment models. EWAM uses physiological, energetic, nutritional and physical relationships in combination with activity time budgets, and mass and energy balances. The calculated ingestion and inhalation rates are closely related. Various age and sex classes of man are taken into account. EWAM is best described as a deterministic equilibrium or steady-state model, operating on a daily time-scale with both detailed research and more general assessment model features. The parameters of EWAM are reviewed and suitable values recommended to allow biologically meaningful predictions. 78 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.

  14. Phosphorus budget in the water-agro-food system at nested scales in two contrasted regions of the world (ASEAN-8 and EU-27)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Josette; Lassaletta, Luis; Billen, Gilles; Romero, Estela; Grizzetti, Bruna; Némery, Julien; Le, Thi Phuong Quynh; Pistocchi, Chiara; Aissa-Grouz, Najla; Luu, Thi Nguyet Minh; Vilmin, Lauriane; Dorioz, Jean-Marcel

    2015-09-01

    Phosphorus (P) plays a strategic role in agricultural production as well as in the occurrence of freshwater and marine eutrophication episodes throughout the world. Moreover, the scarcity and uneven distribution of minable P resources is raising concerns about the sustainability of long-term exploitation. In this paper we analyze the P cycle in anthropic systems with an original multiscale approach (world region, country, and large basin scales) in two contrasting world regions representative of different trajectories in socioeconomic development for the 1961-2009 period: Europe (EU-27)/France and the Seine River Basin, and Asia (ASEAN-8)/Vietnam and the Red River Basin. Our approach highlights different trends in the agricultural and food production systems of the two regions. Whereas crop production increased until the 1980s in Europe and France and has stabilized thereafter, in ASEAN-8 and Vietnam it began to increase in the 1980s and it is still rising today. These trends are related to the increasing use of fertilizers, although in European countries the amount of fertilizers sharply decreased after the 1980s. On average, the total P delivered from rivers to the sea is 3 times higher for ASEAN-8 (300 kg P km-2 yr-1) than for EU-27 countries (100 kg P km-2 yr-1) and is twice as high in the Red River (200 kg P km-2 yr-1) than in the Seine River (110 kg P km-2 yr-1), with agricultural losses to water in ASEAN-8 3 times higher than in EU-27. Based on the P flux budgets, this study discusses early warnings and management options according to the particularities of the two world regions, newly integrating the perspective of surface water quality with agricultural issues (fertilizers, crop production, and surplus), food/feed exchanges, and diet, defining the so-called water-agro-food system.

  15. Heat, Moisture, and Momentum Budgets of Isolated Deep Midlatitude and Tropical Convective Clouds as Diagnosed from Three-Dimensional Model Output. Part I: Control Experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlesinger, Robert E.

    1994-12-01

    This project uses a three-dimensional anelastic cloud model with a simple ice phase parameterization to evaluate the feedback between isolated deep convective clouds and their near surroundings. The horizontal Reynolds averaging approach of Anthes is adopted to diagnose the vertical profiles of the individual budget terms for heat, moisture, and horizontal momentum, as well as the resultant effects of each budget as defined by apparent sources or sinks. The averaging area, 33.75 km on a side, is comparable to one grid cell for typical mesoscale numerical weather prediction models.Two comparative simulations are run, one for a severe Oklahoma thunderstorm in strong vertical wind shear and the other for a tropical Atlantic cumulonimbus in much weaker shear. The midlatitude cloud evolves to a vigorous quasi-steady mature stage with several supercell characteristics including an erect large-diameter updraft, a strong and vertically extensive mesolow, and a well-developed highly asymmetric cold pool that spreads rapidly. In contrast, the tropical updraft is much narrower and slower with a shallow weak midlevel mesolow, leans markedly downshear, and evolves early into slow decay modulated by bubblelike pulsations, while the cold pool is weak and quasi-circular and spreads slowly.There are several similarities between corresponding budgets in the two runs. Most notably: 1) The heat and moisture budgets are dominated by condensation, which is maximized in the midtroposphere. 2) The horizontal pressure gradient force dominates the momentum budget. 3) Vertical eddy transport (flux divergence) is highly important to each budget. Thermodynamically, it acts to mainly cool and dry the lower troposphere, while warming and moistening the upper troposphere, though with a lower crossover level for moisture than for heat. 4) The altitudes of the peak apparent heat sources are determined by the vertical eddy transport of heat. 5) Net evaporation has 40% as much amplitude as the

  16. Development of Ensemble Model Based Water Demand Forecasting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Byung-Seop

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and optimal pump operation and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. Existing water demand forecasting models are categorized into two groups in view of modeling and predicting their behavior in time series. One is to consider embedded patterns such as seasonality, periodicity and trends, and the other one is an autoregressive model that is using short memory Markovian processes (Emmanuel et al., 2012). The main disadvantage of the abovementioned model is that there is a limit to predictability of water demands of about sub-daily scale because the system is nonlinear. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The proposed model is consist of two parts. One is a multi-model scheme that is based on combination of independent prediction model. The other one is a cross validation scheme named Bagging approach introduced by Brieman (1996) to derive weighting factors corresponding to individual models. Individual forecasting models that used in this study are linear regression analysis model, polynomial regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS), SVM(support vector machine). The concepts are demonstrated through application to observed from water plant at several locations in the South Korea. Keywords: water demand, non-linear model, the ensemble forecasting model, uncertainty. Acknowledgements This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Projects for Developing Eco-Innovation Technologies (GT-11-G-02-001-6)

  17. Incorporation of salinity in Water Availability Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurbs, Ralph A.; Lee, Chihun

    2011-10-01

    SummaryNatural salt pollution from geologic formations in the upper watersheds of several large river basins in the Southwestern United States severely constrains the use of otherwise available major water supply sources. The Water Rights Analysis Package modeling system has been routinely applied in Texas since the late 1990s in regional and statewide planning studies and administration of the state's water rights permit system, but without consideration of water quality. The modeling system was recently expanded to incorporate salinity considerations in assessments of river/reservoir system capabilities for supplying water for environmental, municipal, agricultural, and industrial needs. Salinity loads and concentrations are tracked through systems of river reaches and reservoirs to develop concentration frequency statistics that augment flow frequency and water supply reliability metrics at pertinent locations for alternative water management strategies. Flexible generalized capabilities are developed for using limited observed salinity data to model highly variable concentrations imposed upon complex river regulation infrastructure and institutional water allocation/management practices.

  18. The AquaDEB project: Physiological flexibility of aquatic animals analysed with a generic dynamic energy budget model (phase II).

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alunno-Bruscia, M.; v.d. Veer, H.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2011-01-01

    This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007-2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5. years' project,

  19. The "covariation method" for estimating the parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget model I: Philosophy and approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lika, K.; Kearney, M.R.; Freitas, V.; van der Veer, H.W.; van der Meer, J.; Wijsman, J.W.M.; Pecquerie, L.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2011-01-01

    The Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory for metabolic organisation captures the processes of development, growth, maintenance, reproduction and ageing for any kind of organism throughout its life-cycle. However, the application of DEB theory is challenging because the state variables and parameters

  20. Groundwater influence on water budget of a small constructed floodplain wetland in the Ridge and Valley of Virginia, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea L. Ludwig

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Data showed that the created wetland met hydrologic success criteria, and that the wetland storage was fully connected with the groundwater table. Water-surface storage fluctuation was not fully explained by precipitation and evapotranspiration, suggesting that storage was highly influenced by groundwater inputs. The potentiometric surface showed that hillslope seep recharge was the dominant groundwater vector. However, during the summer and fall months, the adjacent stream channel was a losing system, and storm-driven rise in stream stage affected wetland storage. The complex hydrology of this relatively small wetland indicates that predicting the fluctuations of storage for design of unconfined floodplain wetlands is challenging, and that if the influence of groundwater seepage is negated, then fluctuations may be underestimated to the point of harming vegetation.

  1. The "covariation method" for estimating the parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget model II: Properties and preliminary patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lika, Konstadia; Kearney, Michael R.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    The covariation method for estimating the parameters of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model provides a single-step method of accessing all the core DEB parameters from commonly available empirical data. In this study, we assess the robustness of this parameter estimation procedure and analyse the role of pseudo-data using elasticity coefficients. In particular, we compare the performance of Maximum Likelihood (ML) vs. Weighted Least Squares (WLS) approaches and find that the two approaches tend to converge in performance as the number of uni-variate data sets increases, but that WLS is more robust when data sets comprise single points (zero-variate data). The efficiency of the approach is shown to be high, and the prior parameter estimates (pseudo-data) have very little influence if the real data contain information about the parameter values. For instance, the effects of the pseudo-value for the allocation fraction κ is reduced when there is information for both growth and reproduction, that for the energy conductance is reduced when information on age at birth and puberty is given, and the effects of the pseudo-value for the maturity maintenance rate coefficient are insignificant. The estimation of some parameters (e.g., the zoom factor and the shape coefficient) requires little information, while that of others (e.g., maturity maintenance rate, puberty threshold and reproduction efficiency) require data at several food levels. The generality of the standard DEB model, in combination with the estimation of all of its parameters, allows comparison of species on the basis of parameter values. We discuss a number of preliminary patterns emerging from the present collection of parameter estimates across a wide variety of taxa. We make the observation that the estimated value of the fraction κ of mobilised reserve that is allocated to soma is far away from the value that maximises reproduction. We recognise this as the reason why two very different

  2. WaterSense Program: Methodology for National Water Savings Analysis Model Indoor Residential Water Use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitehead, Camilla Dunham; McNeil, Michael; Dunham_Whitehead, Camilla; Letschert, Virginie; della_Cava, Mirka

    2008-02-28

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) influences the market for plumbing fixtures and fittings by encouraging consumers to purchase products that carry the WaterSense label, which certifies those products as performing at low flow rates compared to unlabeled fixtures and fittings. As consumers decide to purchase water-efficient products, water consumption will decline nationwide. Decreased water consumption should prolong the operating life of water and wastewater treatment facilities.This report describes the method used to calculate national water savings attributable to EPA?s WaterSense program. A Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, the National Water Savings (NWS) analysis model, accompanies this methodology report. Version 1.0 of the NWS model evaluates indoor residential water consumption. Two additional documents, a Users? Guide to the spreadsheet model and an Impacts Report, accompany the NWS model and this methodology document. Altogether, these four documents represent Phase One of this project. The Users? Guide leads policy makers through the spreadsheet options available for projecting the water savings that result from various policy scenarios. The Impacts Report shows national water savings that will result from differing degrees of market saturation of high-efficiency water-using products.This detailed methodology report describes the NWS analysis model, which examines the effects of WaterSense by tracking the shipments of products that WaterSense has designated as water-efficient. The model estimates market penetration of products that carry the WaterSense label. Market penetration is calculated for both existing and new construction. The NWS model estimates savings based on an accounting analysis of water-using products and of building stock. Estimates of future national water savings will help policy makers further direct the focus of WaterSense and calculate stakeholder impacts from the program.Calculating the total gallons of water the

  3. Historical analysis and modeling of the forest carbon dynamics using the Carbon Budget Model: an example for the Trento Province (NE, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilli R

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Historical analysis and modeling of the forest carbon dynamics using the Carbon Budget Model: an example for the Trento Province (NE, Italy. The Carbon Budget Model (CBM-CFS3 developed by the Canadian Forest Service was applied to data collected by the last Italian National Forest Inventory (INFC for the Trento Province (NE, Italy. CBM was modified and adapted to the different management types (i.e., even-aged high forests, uneven-aged high forests and coppices and silvicultural systems (including clear cuts, single tree selection systems and thinning applied in this province. The aim of this study was to provide an example of down-scaling of this model from a national to a regional scale, providing (i an historical analysis, from 1995 to 2011, and (ii a projection, from 2012 to 2020, of the forest biomass and the carbon stock evolution. The analysis was based on the harvest rate reported by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (from 1995 to 2011, corrected according to the last INFC data and distinguished between timber and fuel woods and between conifers and broadleaves. Since 2012, we applied a constant harvest rate, equal to about 1300 Mm3 yr-1, estimated from the average harvest rate for the period 2006-2011. Model results were consistent with similar data reported in the literature. The average biomass C stock was 90 Mg C ha-1 and the biomass C stock change was 0.97 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 and 0.87 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, for the period 1995 -2011 and 2012-2020, respectively. The C stock cumulated by the timber products since 1995 was 96 Gg C yr-1, i.e., about 28% of the average annual C stock change of the forests, equal to 345 Gg C yr-1. CBM also provided estimates on the evolution of the age class distribution of the even-aged forests and on the C stock of the DOM forest pools (litter, dead wood and soil. This study demonstrates the utility of CBM to provide estimates at a regional or local scale, using not only the data provided by the forest

  4. Using Simulation and Budget Models to Scale-Up Nitrogen Leaching from Field to Region in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.C. Huffman

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Efforts are underway at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC to develop an integrated, nationally applicable, socioeconomic/biophysical modeling capability in order to predict the environmental impacts of policy and program scenarios. This paper outlines our Decision Support System (DSS, which integrates the IROWCN (Indicator of the Risk of Water Contamination by Nitrogen index with the agricultural policy model CRAM (Canadian Regional Agricultural Model and presents an outline of our methodology to provide independent assessments of the IROWCN results through the use of nitrogen (N simulation models in select, data-rich areas. Three field-level models — DSSAT, N_ABLE, and EPIC — were evaluated using local measured data. The results show that all three dynamic models can be used to simulate biomass, grain yield, and soil N dynamics at the field level; but the accuracy of the models differ, suggesting that models need to be calibrated using local measured data before they are used in Canada. Further simulation of IROWCN in a maize field using N_ABLE showed that soil-mineral N levels are highly affected by the amount of fertilizer N applied and the time of year, meaning that fertilizer and manure N applications and weather data are crucial for improving IROWCN. Methods of scaling-up simulated IROWCN from field-level to soil-landscape polygons and CRAM regions are discussed.

  5. Beyond Zero Based Budgeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, Daniel M., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    Suggests that the most practical budgeting system for most managers is a formalized combination of incremental and zero-based analysis because little can be learned about most programs from an annual zero-based budget. (Author/IRT)

  6. Fiscal Year 2015 Budget

    Data.gov (United States)

    Montgomery County of Maryland — This dataset includes the Fiscal Year 2015 Council-approved operating budget for Montgomery County. The dataset does not include revenues and detailed agency budget...

  7. Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Robustness of river basin water quality models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Blois, Chris; Wind, H.G.; de Kok, Jean-Luc; Koppeschaar, K.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the concept of robustness is introduced and applied to a model for the analysis of the impacts of spatially distributed policy measures on the surface water quality on a river basin scale. In this model the influence of precipitation on emissions and resuspension of pollutants in the

  9. New challenges in integrated water quality modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rode, M.; Arhonditsis, G.; Balin, D.; Kebede, T.; Krysanova, V.; Griensven, A.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is an increasing pressure for development of integrated water quality models that effectively couple catchment and in-stream biogeochemical processes. This need stems from increasing legislative requirements and emerging demands related to contemporary climate and land use changes. Modelling

  10. Modeling terahertz heating effects on water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Torben T.L.; Withayachumnankul, Withawat; Jepsen, Peter Uhd

    2010-01-01

    We apply Kirchhoff’s heat equation to model the influence of a CW terahertz beam on a sample of water, which is assumed to be static. We develop a generalized model, which easily can be applied to other liquids and solids by changing the material constants. If the terahertz light source is focused...

  11. Storm Water Management Model Applications Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model that computes runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. This manual is a practical application guide for new SWMM users who have already had some previous training in hydrolog...

  12. Modelling water uptake efficiency of root systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Daniel; Tron, Stefania; Schröder, Natalie; Bodner, Gernot; Javaux, Mathieu; Vanderborght, Jan; Vereecken, Harry; Schnepf, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Water uptake is crucial for plant productivity. Trait based breeding for more water efficient crops will enable a sustainable agricultural management under specific pedoclimatic conditions, and can increase drought resistance of plants. Mathematical modelling can be used to find suitable root system traits for better water uptake efficiency defined as amount of water taken up per unit of root biomass. This approach requires large simulation times and large number of simulation runs, since we test different root systems under different pedoclimatic conditions. In this work, we model water movement by the 1-dimensional Richards equation with the soil hydraulic properties described according to the van Genuchten model. Climatic conditions serve as the upper boundary condition. The root system grows during the simulation period and water uptake is calculated via a sink term (after Tron et al. 2015). The goal of this work is to compare different free software tools based on different numerical schemes to solve the model. We compare implementations using DUMUX (based on finite volumes), Hydrus 1D (based on finite elements), and a Matlab implementation of Van Dam, J. C., & Feddes 2000 (based on finite differences). We analyse the methods for accuracy, speed and flexibility. Using this model case study, we can clearly show the impact of various root system traits on water uptake efficiency. Furthermore, we can quantify frequent simplifications that are introduced in the modelling step like considering a static root system instead of a growing one, or considering a sink term based on root density instead of considering the full root hydraulic model (Javaux et al. 2008). References Tron, S., Bodner, G., Laio, F., Ridolfi, L., & Leitner, D. (2015). Can diversity in root architecture explain plant water use efficiency? A modeling study. Ecological modelling, 312, 200-210. Van Dam, J. C., & Feddes, R. A. (2000). Numerical simulation of infiltration, evaporation and shallow

  13. The global methane budget 2000-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Poulter, Ben; Peregon, Anna; Ciais, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Bastviken, David; Houweling, Sander; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Castaldi, Simona; Jackson, Robert B.; Alexe, Mihai; Arora, Vivek K.; Beerling, David J.; Bergamaschi, Peter; Blake, Donald R.; Brailsford, Gordon; Brovkin, Victor; Bruhwiler, Lori; Crevoisier, Cyril; Crill, Patrick; Covey, Kristofer; Curry, Charles; Frankenberg, Christian; Gedney, Nicola; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Ishizawa, Misa; Ito, Akihiko; Joos, Fortunat; Kim, Heon-Sook; Kleinen, Thomas; Krummel, Paul; Lamarque, Jean-François; Langenfelds, Ray; Locatelli, Robin; Machida, Toshinobu; Maksyutov, Shamil; McDonald, Kyle C.; Marshall, Julia; Melton, Joe R.; Morino, Isamu; Naik, Vaishali; O'Doherty, Simon; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Patra, Prabir K.; Peng, Changhui; Peng, Shushi; Peters, Glen P.; Pison, Isabelle; Prigent, Catherine; Prinn, Ronald; Ramonet, Michel; Riley, William J.; Saito, Makoto; Santini, Monia; Schroeder, Ronny; Simpson, Isobel J.; Spahni, Renato; Steele, Paul; Takizawa, Atsushi; Thornton, Brett F.; Tian, Hanqin; Tohjima, Yasunori; Viovy, Nicolas; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; van Weele, Michiel; van der Werf, Guido R.; Weiss, Ray; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Wilton, David J.; Wiltshire, Andy; Worthy, Doug; Wunch, Debra; Xu, Xiyan; Yoshida, Yukio; Zhang, Bowen; Zhang, Zhen; Zhu, Qiuan

    2016-12-01

    . Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr-1, range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (˜ 64 % of the global budget, wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

  14. Fine-resolution Modeling of Urban-Energy Systems' Water Footprint in River Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManamay, R.; Surendran Nair, S.; Morton, A.; DeRolph, C.; Stewart, R.

    2015-12-01

    Characterizing the interplay between urbanization, energy production, and water resources is essential for ensuring sustainable population growth. In order to balance limited water supplies, competing users must account for their realized and virtual water footprint, i.e. the total direct and indirect amount of water used, respectively. Unfortunately, publicly reported US water use estimates are spatially coarse, temporally static, and completely ignore returns of water to rivers after use. These estimates are insufficient to account for the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of water budgets in urbanizing systems. Likewise, urbanizing areas are supported by competing sources of energy production, which also have heterogeneous water footprints. Hence, a fundamental challenge of planning for sustainable urban growth and decision-making across disparate policy sectors lies in characterizing inter-dependencies among urban systems, energy producers, and water resources. A modeling framework is presented that provides a novel approach to integrate urban-energy infrastructure into a spatial accounting network that accurately measures water footprints as changes in the quantity and quality of river flows. River networks (RNs), i.e. networks of branching tributaries nested within larger rivers, provide a spatial structure to measure water budgets by modeling hydrology and accounting for use and returns from urbanizing areas and energy producers. We quantify urban-energy water footprints for Atlanta, GA and Knoxville, TN (USA) based on changes in hydrology in RNs. Although water intakes providing supply to metropolitan areas were proximate to metropolitan areas, power plants contributing to energy demand in Knoxville and Atlanta, occurred 30 and 90km outside the metropolitan boundary, respectively. Direct water footprints from urban landcover primarily comprised smaller streams whereas indirect footprints from water supply reservoirs and energy producers included

  15. Water-management model in Florida from LANDSAT-1 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higer, A. L.; Cordes, E. H.; Coker, A. E.; Rogers, R. H.

    1975-01-01

    A prototype data acquisition and dissemination network and its effectiveness in improving and/or solving hydrologic problems in southern Florida are evaluated. The network utilized LANDSAT MSS imagery and in situ monitoring by LANDSAT-DCS. Results show water level and rain fall measurements were collected and disseminated in less than two hours, a significant improvement over conventional methods which took up to two months. Improved network performance has also aided the development of water budgets and water distribution to the people, funa, and flora in the area. Imagery from LANDSAT was also found to enhance the utility of ground measurements.

  16. The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

  17. The AquaDEB project: Physiological flexibility of aquatic animals analysed with a generic dynamic energy budget model (phase II)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; van der Veer, Henk W.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007-2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5 years' project, present context for the papers in this volume and discuss future directions. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB were (i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability within the context of DEB theory for metabolic organisation, and (ii) to evaluate the inter-relationships between different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). AquaDEB phase I focussed on quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species ( e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) and phase II on: (i) comparing of energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and identifying the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; (ii) considering different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) scaling up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes. Apart from the three special issues in the Journal of Sea Research — including the DEBIB collaboration (see vol. 65 issue 2), a theme issue on DEB theory appeared in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (vol 365, 2010); a large number of publications were produced; the third edition of the DEB book appeared (2010); open-source software was substantially expanded (over 1000 functions); a large open-source systematic collection of ecophysiological data and DEB parameters has been set up; and a series of DEB

  18. Between Bedside and Budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.L.T. Blank; E. Eggink

    1998-01-01

    Original title: Tussen bed en budget. The report Between bedside and budget (Tussen bed en budget) describes an extensive empirical study of the efficiency of general and university hospitals in the Netherlands. A policy summary recaps the main findings of the study. Those findings

  19. Library Budget Primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Alice Sizer

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the advantages and disadvantages of six types of budgets commonly used by many different kinds of libraries. The budget types covered are lump-sum; formula; line or line-item; program; performance or function; and zero-based. Accompanying figures demonstrate the differences between four of the budget types. (three references) (KRN)

  20. Understanding Long-term, Large-scale Shoreline Change and the Sediment Budget on Fire Island, NY, using a 3D hydrodynamics-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, J. H.; Safak, I.; Warner, J. C.; Schwab, W. C.; Hapke, C. J.; Lentz, E. E.

    2016-02-01

    The processes responsible for long-term (decadal) shoreline change and the related imbalance in the sediment budget on Fire Island, a 50 km long barrier island on the south coast of Long Island, NY, has been the subject of debate. The estimated net rate of sediment leaving the barrier at the west end of the island is approximately double the estimated net rate of sediment entering in the east, but the island-wide average sediment volume change associated with shoreline change is near zero and cannot account for this deficit. A long-held hypothesis is that onshore sediment flux from the inner continental shelf within the western half of the island is responsible for balancing the sediment budget. To investigate this possibility, we use a nested, 3-D, hydrodynamics-based modeling system (COAWST) to simulate the island-wide alongshore and cross-shore transport, in combination with shoreline change observations. The modeled, net alongshore transport gradients in the nearshore predict that the central part of Fire Island should be erosional, yet shoreline change observations show this area to be accretionary. We compare the model-predicted alongshore transport gradients with the flux gradients that would be required to generate the observed shoreline change, to give the pattern of sediment volume gains or losses that cannot be explained by the modeled alongshore transport gradients. Results show that the western 30 km of coast requires an input of sediment, supporting the hypothesis of onshore flux in this area. The modeled cross-shore flux of sediment between the shoreface and inner shelf is consistent these results, with onshore-directed bottom currents creating an environment more conducive to onshore sediment flux in the western 30 km of the island compared to the eastern 20 km. We conclude that the cross-shore flux of sediment can explain the shoreline change observations, and is an integral component of Fire Island's sediment budget.

  1. Dual integral porosity shallow water model for urban flood modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guinot, Vincent; Sanders, Brett F.; Schubert, Jochen E.

    2017-05-01

    With CPU times 2 to 3 orders of magnitude smaller than classical shallow water-based models, the shallow water equations with porosity are a promising tool for large-scale modelling of urban floods. In this paper, a new model formulation called the Dual Integral Porosity (DIP) model is presented and examined analytically and computationally with a series of benchmark tests. The DIP model is established from an integral mass and momentum balance whereby both porosity and flow variables are defined separately for control volumes and boundaries, and a closure scheme is introduced to link control volume- and boundary-based flow variables. Previously developed Integral Porosity (IP) models were limited to a single set of flow variables. A new transient momentum dissipation model is also introduced to account for the effects of sub-grid scale wave action on porosity model solutions, effects which are validated by fine-grid solutions of the classical shallow-water equations and shown to be important for achieving similarity in dam-break solutions. One-dimensional numerical test cases show that the proposed DIP model outperforms the IP model, with significantly improved wave propagation speeds, water depths and discharge calculations. A two-dimensional field scale test case shows that the DIP model performs better than the IP model in mapping the floods extent and is slightly better in reproducing the anisotropy of the flow field when momentum dissipation parameters are calibrated.

  2. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  3. Applying the WEAP Model to Water Resource

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Jingjing; Christensen, Per; Li, Wei

    in assessing the effects on water resources using a case study on a Coal Industry Development Plan in an arid region in North Western China. In the case the WEAP model (Water Evaluation And Planning System) were used to simulate various scenarios using a diversity of technological instruments like irrigation...... thus providing a good basis for an SEA that can support the choice among different alternative scenarios and contribute to adjusting and optimizing the original plan....

  4. Urban Runoff and Water Quality Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jong Tae [Kyonggi University, Suwon (Korea)

    1998-12-31

    The characteristics of storm and water quality are investigated based on the measuring data of the test river, the Hongje. The water quality of the test river is generally good comparing to other urban rivers in Seoul, because of the interception of sewer flow. But this system makes the river dry up for 3-4 months in winter. On the other hand, in rainy period the storm from the combined sewer system causes rapid increasing pollutants loads. In order to simulate the urban storm and water quality of the test basin, the models such as SWMM, ILLUDAS, STORM, HEC-1 were applied and the results are compared in its applicability and accuracy aspects. All models discussed here have shown good results and it seems that SWMM is the most effective model in simulating both quantity and quality. Also, regression relations between the water quantity and quality were derived and their applicabilities were discussed. This regression model is a simple effective tool for estimating the pollutant loads in the rainy period, but if the amount of discharge is bigger than measuring range of raw data, the accuracy becomes poor. This model could be supplemented by expanding the range of collecting data and introducing the river characteristics. The HEC-1 would be another effective model to simulate storm runoff of a river basin including urban area. (author). 15 refs., 13 tabs., 13 figs.

  5. Modelling batch microwave heating of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeong, S. P.; Law, M. C.; Lee, C. C. Vincent; Chan, Y. S.

    2017-07-01

    A numerical model of the microwave heating of distilled water is developed using COMSOL Multiphysics software to investigate the microwave effects on the heating rate. Three frequencies (0.915GHz, 2GHz and 2.45 GHz) have been applied in the model in order to study their influences on the water temperature. It is found that the water heats up at 2GHz and 2.45GHz, however, there is no sign of heating at 915MHz. This is supported with the figures of the electric field distribution in the microwave cavity. The results shown in the developed model is validated with the experimental results obtained at 2.45 GHz.

  6. The East Asian Atmospheric Water Cycle and Monsoon Circulation in the Met Office Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, José M.; Milton, Sean F.; Marzin, Charline

    2017-10-01

    In this study the low-level monsoon circulation and observed sources of moisture responsible for the maintenance and seasonal evolution of the East Asian monsoon are examined, studying the detailed water budget components. These observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulation performance in capturing the circulation and water cycle at a variety of model horizontal resolutions and in fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We study the role of large-scale circulation in determining the hydrological cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model simulations. MetUM climate simulations exhibit robust circulation errors, including a weakening of the summer west Pacific Subtropical High, which leads to an underestimation of the southwesterly monsoon flow over the region. Precipitation and implied diabatic heating biases in the South Asian monsoon and Maritime Continent region are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to have an impact on the East Asian monsoon circulation. By inference, the improvement of these tropical biases with increased model horizontal resolution is hypothesized to be a factor in improvements seen over East Asia with increased resolution. Results from the annual cycle of the hydrological budget components in five domains show a good agreement between MetUM simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis in northern and Tibetan domains. In simulations, the contribution from moisture convergence is larger than in reanalysis, and they display less precipitation recycling over land. The errors are closely linked to monsoon circulation biases.

  7. Klang River water quality modelling using music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahari, Nazirul Mubin; Zawawi, Mohd Hafiz; Muda, Zakaria Che; Sidek, Lariyah Mohd; Fauzi, Nurfazila Mohd; Othman, Mohd Edzham Fareez; Ahmad, Zulkepply

    2017-09-01

    Water is an essential resource that sustains life on earth; changes in the natural quality and distribution of water have ecological impacts that can sometimes be devastating. Recently, Malaysia is facing many environmental issues regarding water pollution. The main causes of river pollution are rapid urbanization, arising from the development of residential, commercial, industrial sites, infrastructural facilities and others. The purpose of the study was to predict the water quality of the Connaught Bridge Power Station (CBPS), Klang River. Besides that, affects to the low tide and high tide and. to forecast the pollutant concentrations of the Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) and Total Suspended Solid (TSS) for existing land use of the catchment area through water quality modeling (by using the MUSIC software). Besides that, to identifying an integrated urban stormwater treatment system (Best Management Practice or BMPs) to achieve optimal performance in improving the water quality of the catchment using the MUSIC software in catchment areas having tropical climates. Result from MUSIC Model such as BOD5 at station 1 can be reduce the concentration from Class IV to become Class III. Whereas, for TSS concentration from Class III to become Class II at the station 1. The model predicted a mean TSS reduction of 0.17%, TP reduction of 0.14%, TN reduction of 0.48% and BOD5 reduction of 0.31% for Station 1 Thus, from the result after purposed BMPs the water quality is safe to use because basically water quality monitoring is important due to threat such as activities are harmful to aquatic organisms and public health.

  8. Zero Based Budgeting for Voc Ed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Ying C.

    1977-01-01

    To help vocational education budget planners take a good look each year at where they are going, what they are trying to accomplish, and where to put their money, this article describes the 12 steps in a model commonly used for zero based budgeting. (Author/HD)

  9. Interactive Water Resources Modeling and Model Use: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loucks, Daniel P.; Kindler, Janusz; Fedra, Kurt

    1985-02-01

    This serves as an introduction for the following sequence of five papers on interactive water resources and environmental management, policy modeling, and model use. We review some important shortcomings of many management and policy models and argue for improved human-computer-model interaction and communication. This interaction can lead to more effective model use which in turn should facilitate the exploration, analysis, and synthesis of alternative designs, plans, and policies by those directly involved in the planning, management, or policy making process. Potential advantages of interactive modeling and model use, as well as some problems and research needs, are discussed.

  10. Modelling of water potential and water uptake rate of tomato plants in the greenhouse: preliminary results.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruggink, G.T.; Schouwink, H.E.; Gieling, Th.H.

    1988-01-01

    A dynamic model is presented which predicts water potential and water uptake rate of greenhouse tomato plants using transpiration rate as input. The model assumes that water uptake is the resultant of water potential and hydraulic resistance, and that water potential is linearly related to water

  11. Modelling carbon and water flows in terrestrial ecosystems in the boreal zone - examples from Oskarshamn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlberg, Louise [Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm (Sweden); Gu stafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik [Royal Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Land and Water Resources Engineering, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-12-15

    Carbon budgets and mean residence times were estimated in four hypothetical ecosystems. The greatest uncertainties in the estimations lie in the calculation of fluxes to and from the field layer. A parametrisation method based on multiple criteria, synthesising a wide range of empirical knowledge on ecosystem behaviour, proved to be useful both in the estimation of unknown parameters, to demonstrate model sensitivity, and to identify processes where our current knowledge is limited. The parameterizations derived from the study of the hypothetical systems were used to estimate site-specific carbon and water budgets for four ecosystems located within the Oskarshamn study-area. Measured soil respiration was used to calibrate the simulations. An analysis of the simulated carbon fluxes indicated that two of the ecosystems, namely the grassland and the spruce forest, were net sources of carbon dioxide, while the alder and the pine forest were net sinks of CO{sub 2}. In the former case, this was interpreted as a result of recent drainage of the organogenic soils and the concurrent increase in decomposition. The results from the study conformed rather well with results from a previous study on carbon budgets from the Oskarshamn study area.

  12. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  13. Modeling groundwater/surface-water interactions in an Alpine valley (the Aosta Plain, NW Italy): the effect of groundwater abstraction on surface-water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefania, Gennaro A.; Rotiroti, Marco; Fumagalli, Letizia; Simonetto, Fulvio; Capodaglio, Pietro; Zanotti, Chiara; Bonomi, Tullia

    2018-02-01

    A groundwater flow model of the Alpine valley aquifer in the Aosta Plain (NW Italy) showed that well pumping can induce river streamflow depletions as a function of well location. Analysis of the water budget showed that ˜80% of the water pumped during 2 years by a selected well in the downstream area comes from the baseflow of the main river discharge. Alluvial aquifers hosted in Alpine valleys fall within a particular hydrogeological context where groundwater/surface-water relationships change from upstream to downstream as well as seasonally. A transient groundwater model using MODFLOW2005 and the Streamflow-Routing (SFR2) Package is here presented, aimed at investigating water exchanges between the main regional river (Dora Baltea River, a left-hand tributary of the Po River), its tributaries and the underlying shallow aquifer, which is affected by seasonal oscillations. The three-dimensional distribution of the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer was obtained by means of a specific coding system within the database TANGRAM. Both head and flux targets were used to perform the model calibration using PEST. Results showed that the fluctuations of the water table play an important role in groundwater/surface-water interconnections. In upstream areas, groundwater is recharged by water leaking through the riverbed and the well abstraction component of the water budget changes as a function of the hydraulic conditions of the aquifer. In downstream areas, groundwater is drained by the river and most of the water pumped by wells comes from the base flow component of the river discharge.

  14. Installed water resource modelling systems for catchment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Following international trends there are a growing number of modelling systems being installed for integrated water resource management, in Southern Africa. Such systems are likely to be installed for operational use in ongoing learning, research, strategic planning and consensus-building amongst stakeholders in the ...

  15. Understanding the Budget Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mesut Yalvaç

    2000-03-01

    Full Text Available Many different budgeting techniques can be used in libraries, and some combination of these will be appropriate for almost any individual situation. Li-ne-item, program, performance, formula, variable, and zero-base budgets all have features that may prove beneficial in the preparation of a budget. Budgets also serve a variety of functions, providing for short-term and long-term financial planning as well as for cash management over a period of time. Short-term plans are reflected in the operating budget, while long-term plans are reflected in the capital budget. Since the time when cash is available to an organization does not usually coincide with the time that disbursements must be made, it is also important to carefully plan for the inflow and outflow of funds by means of a cash budget.      During the budget process an organization selects its programs and activities by providing the necessary funding; the library, along with others in the organization, must justify its requests. Because of the cyclical nature of the budget process, it is possible continually to gather information and evaluate alternatives for the next budget period so that the library may achieve its maximum potential for service to its patrons.

  16. A comparison study of water impact and water exit models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korobkin Alexander

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In problems of global hydroelastic ship response in severe seas including the whipping problem, we need to know the hydrodynamic forces acting on the ship hull during almost arbitrary ship motions. In terms of ship sections, some of them can enter water but others exit from water. Computations of nonlinear free surface flows, pressure distributions and hydrodynamic forces in parallel with the computations of the ship motions including elastic vibrations of the ship hull are time consuming and are suitable only for research purposes but not for practical calculations. In this paper, it is shown that the slamming forces can be decomposed in two components within three semi-analytical models of water entry. Only heave motion is considered. The first component is proportional to the entry speed squared and the second one to the body acceleration. The coefficients in these two components are functions of the penetration depth only and can be precomputed for given shape of the body. During the exit stage the hydrodynamic force is proportional to the acceleration of the body and independent of the body shape for bodies with small deadrise angles.

  17. Simulation of the water balance of boreal watersheds of northeastern British Columbia, Canada using MIKE SHE, an integrated hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadzadesahraei, S.; Déry, S.; Rex, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Northeastern British Columbia (BC) is undergoing rapid development for oil and gas extraction, largely depending on subsurface hydraulic fracturing (fracking), which relies on available freshwater. Even though this industrial activity has made substantial contributions to regional and provincial economies, it is important to ensure that sufficient and sustainable water supplies are available for all those dependent on the resource, including ecological systems. Further, BC statistics predict that the northeastern region's population will increase by 30% over the next 25 years, thereby amplifying the demands of domestic and industrial water usage. Hence, given the increasing demands for surface water in the complex wetlands of northeastern BC, obtaining accurate long-term water balance information is of vital importance. Thus, this study aims to simulate the 1979-2014 water balance at two boreal watersheds using the MIKE SHE model. More specifically, this research intends to quantify the historical, and regional, water budgets and their associated hydrological processes at two boreal watersheds—the Coles Lake and Tsea Lake watersheds—in northeastern BC. The development of coupled groundwater and surface water model of these watersheds are discussed. The model setup, calibration process, and results are presented, focusing on the water balance of boreal watersheds. Hydrological components within these watersheds are quantified through a combination of intensive fieldwork, observational data, analysis and numerical modeling. The output from the model provides important information for decision makers to manage water resources in northeastern BC. Keywords: Northeastern BC; boreal watershed; water balance; MIKE SHE hydrological model.

  18. The carbon budget of Mono Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxburgh, Rachel; Broecker, Wallace S.; Wanninkhof, Richard H.

    1991-12-01

    Radiocarbon measurements suggest that 14C-free carbon enters from beneath Mono Lake at a rate of about 1 mol/m2/yr. An input of this magnitude should be manifested in the inorganic carbon budget of the lake and with this in mind we have devised a model to reconstruct the evolution of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) over the past 150 years. This encompasses a period (1945 to present) during which major diversions of source waters via the Los Angeles aqueduct have been in effect, significantly increasing the salinity of the lake and hence its pCO2. The model has been constrained by experimental characterization of the carbonate chemistry of the lake water, by the temperature dependence of pCO2 for the lake water, and by pCO2 measurements made on the lake water in 1966, 1969,1981, and 1989. Our calculations suggest that prior to 1945 the pCO2 of Mono Lake water was about 1.3 times the atmospheric value. To produce this excess, an input of CO2 of about 3.3 mol/m2/yr is required. Volcanic activity beneath the lake is a probable source of this input.

  19. Verification of uncertainty budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    The quality of analytical results is expressed by their uncertainty, as it is estimated on the basis of an uncertainty budget; little effort is, however, often spent on ascertaining the quality of the uncertainty budget. The uncertainty budget is based on circumstantial or historical data......, and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...

  20. Effects of brush management on the hydrologic budget and water quality in and adjacent to Honey Creek State Natural Area, Comal County, Texas, 2001-10

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, J. Ryan; Slattery, Richard N.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service, the Edwards Region Grazing Lands Conservation Initiative, the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, the San Antonio River Authority, the Edwards Aquifer Authority, Texas Parks and Wildlife, the Guadalupe Blanco River Authority, and the San Antonio Water System, evaluated the hydrologic effects of ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) removal as a brush management conservation practice in and adjacent to the Honey Creek State Natural Area in Comal County, Tex. By removing the ashe juniper and allowing native grasses to reestablish in the area as a brush management conservation practice, the hydrology in the watershed might change. Using a simplified mass balance approach of the hydrologic cycle, the incoming rainfall was distributed to surface water runoff, evapotranspiration, or groundwater recharge. After hydrologic data were collected in adjacent watersheds for 3 years, brush management occurred on the treatment watershed while the reference watershed was left in its original condition. Hydrologic data were collected for another 6 years. Hydrologic data include rainfall, streamflow, evapotranspiration, and water quality. Groundwater recharge was not directly measured but potential groundwater recharge was calculated using a simplified mass balance approach. The resulting hydrologic datasets were examined for differences between the watersheds and between pre- and post-treatment periods to assess the effects of brush management. The streamflow to rainfall relation (expressed as event unit runoff to event rainfall relation) did not change between the watersheds during pre- and post-treatment periods. The daily evapotranspiration rates at the reference watershed and treatment watershed sites exhibited a seasonal cycle during the pre- and post-treatment periods, with intra- and interannual variability. Statistical analyses indicate the mean

  1. Hydrology and sediment budget of Los Laureles Canyon, Tijuana, MX: Modelling channel, gully, and rill erosion with 3D photo-reconstruction, CONCEPTS, and AnnAGNPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniguchi, Kristine; Gudiño, Napoleon; Biggs, Trent; Castillo, Carlos; Langendoen, Eddy; Bingner, Ron; Taguas, Encarnación; Liden, Douglas; Yuan, Yongping

    2015-04-01

    Several watersheds cross the US-Mexico boundary, resulting in trans-boundary environmental problems. Erosion in Tijuana, Mexico, increases the rate of sediment deposition in the Tijuana Estuary in the United States, altering the structure and function of the ecosystem. The well-being of residents in Tijuana is compromised by damage to infrastructure and homes built adjacent to stream channels, gully formation in dirt roads, and deposition of trash. We aim to understand the dominant source of sediment contributing to the sediment budget of the watershed (channel, gully, or rill erosion), where the hotspots of erosion are located, and what the impact of future planned and unplanned land use changes and Best Management Practices (BMPs) will be on sediment and storm flow. We will be using a mix of field methods, including 3D photo-reconstruction of stream channels, with two models, CONCEPTS and AnnAGNPS to constrain estimates of the sediment budget and impacts of land use change. Our research provides an example of how 3D photo-reconstruction and Structure from Motion (SfM) can be used to model channel evolution.

  2. The Sensitivity of Atmospheric Water Isotopes to Entrainment and Precipitation Efficiency in a Bulk Plume Model of Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, S.; Wright, J. S.; Romps, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric water isotopes have been proposed as potentially powerful constraints on the physics of convective clouds and parameterizations of convective processes in models. We have previously derived an analytical model of water vapor (H2O) and one of its heavy isotopes (HDO) in convective environments based on a bulk-plume convective water budget in radiative convective equilibrium. This analytical model provides a useful starting point for examining the joint responses of water vapor and its isotopic composition to changes in convective parameters; however, certain idealistic assumptions are required to make the model analytically solvable. Here, we develop a more flexible numerical framework that enables a wider range of model configurations and includes additional isotopic tracers. This model provides a bridge between Rayleigh distillation, which is simple but inflexible, and more complicated convection schemes and cloud resolving models, which are more realistic but also more difficult to perturb and interpret. Application of realistic in-cloud water profiles in our model produces vertical distributions of δD that qualitatively match satellite observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). We test the sensitivity of water vapor and its isotopic composition to a wide range of perturbations in the model parameters and their vertical profiles. In this presentation, we focus especially on establishing constraints for convective entrainment and precipitation efficiency. We conclude by discussing the potential application of this model as part of a larger water isotope toolkit for use with offline diagnostics provided by reanalyses and GCMs.

  3. 7 CFR 3402.14 - Budget and budget narrative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Budget and budget narrative. 3402.14 Section 3402.14 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COOPERATIVE STATE RESEARCH, EDUCATION... budget narrative. Applicants must prepare the Budget, Form CSREES-2004, and a budget narrative...

  4. Modeling of soil-water-structure interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tang, Tian

    in the surrounding water, are calculated using a linear elastic solver. Finally, the direct wave loads on the seabed and the indirect wave loads on the seabed-structure interface through the structure are provided as input for a dynamic soil response calculation. Simulation results in general demonstrate that...... to dynamic ocean waves. The goal of this research project is to develop numerical soil models for computing realistic seabed response in the interacting offshore environment, where ocean waves, seabed and offshore structure highly interact with each other. The seabed soil models developed are based...... as the developed nonlinear soil displacements and stresses under monotonic and cyclic loading. With the FVM nonlinear coupled soil models as a basis, multiphysics modeling of wave-seabed-structure interaction is carried out. The computations are done in an open source code environment, OpenFOAM, where FVM models...

  5. Dynamical influence of gravity waves generated by the Vestfjella Mountains in Antarctica: radar observations, fine-scale modelling and kinetic energy budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Arnault

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Gravity waves generated by the Vestfjella Mountains (in western Droning Maud Land, Antarctica, southwest of the Finnish/Swedish Aboa/Wasa station have been observed with the Moveable atmospheric radar for Antarctica (MARA during the SWEDish Antarctic Research Programme (SWEDARP in December 2007/January 2008. These radar observations are compared with a 2-month Weather Research Forecast (WRF model experiment operated at 2 km horizontal resolution. A control simulation without orography is also operated in order to separate unambiguously the contribution of the mountain waves on the simulated atmospheric flow. This contribution is then quantified with a kinetic energy budget analysis computed in the two simulations. The results of this study confirm that mountain waves reaching lower-stratospheric heights break through convective overturning and generate inertia gravity waves with a smaller vertical wavelength, in association with a brief depletion of kinetic energy through frictional dissipation and negative vertical advection. The kinetic energy budget also shows that gravity waves have a strong influence on the other terms of the budget, i.e. horizontal advection and horizontal work of pressure forces, so evaluating the influence of gravity waves on the mean-flow with the vertical advection term alone is not sufficient, at least in this case. We finally obtain that gravity waves generated by the Vestfjella Mountains reaching lower stratospheric heights generally deplete (create kinetic energy in the lower troposphere (upper troposphere–lower stratosphere, in contradiction with the usual decelerating effect attributed to gravity waves on the zonal circulation in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere.

  6. Integrated Water Resources Simulation Model for Rural Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.-H.; Liao, W.-T.; Tung, C.-P.

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop several water resources simulation models for residence houses, constructed wetlands and farms and then integrate these models for a rural community. Domestic and irrigation water uses are the major water demand in rural community. To build up a model estimating domestic water demand for residence houses, the average water use per person per day should be accounted first, including water uses of kitchen, bathroom, toilet and laundry. On the other hand, rice is the major crop in the study region, and its productive efficiency sometimes depends on the quantity of irrigation water. The water demand can be estimated by crop water use, field leakage and water distribution loss. Irrigation water comes from rainfall, water supply system and reclaimed water which treated by constructed wetland. In recent years, constructed wetlands play an important role in water resources recycle. They can purify domestic wastewater for water recycling and reuse. After treating from constructed wetlands, the reclaimed water can be reused in washing toilets, watering gardens and irrigating farms. Constructed wetland is one of highly economic benefits for treating wastewater through imitating the processing mechanism of natural wetlands. In general, the treatment efficiency of constructed wetlands is determined by evapotranspiration, inflow, and water temperature. This study uses system dynamics modeling to develop models for different water resource components in a rural community. Furthermore, these models are integrated into a whole system. The model not only is utilized to simulate how water moves through different components, including residence houses, constructed wetlands and farms, but also evaluates the efficiency of water use. By analyzing the flow of water, the water resource simulation model can optimizes water resource distribution under different scenarios, and the result can provide suggestions for designing water resource system of a

  7. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    models were used to model and predict the relationship between water resources mobilization WRM and ... (WRM) and response variables were applied to ... of water management and education ... ANN models are mathematical tools,.

  8. Verification and calibration of Energy- and Flux-Budget (EFB) turbulence closure model through large eddy simulations and direct numerical simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadantsev, Evgeny; Fortelius, Carl; Druzhinin, Oleg; Mortikov, Evgeny; Glazunov, Andrey; Zilitinkevich, Sergej

    2016-04-01

    We examine and validate the EFB turbulence closure model (Zilitinkevich et al., 2013), which is based on the budget equations for basic second moments, namely, two energies: turbulent kinetic energy EK and turbulent potential energy EP, and vertical turbulent fluxes of momentum and potential temperature, τi (i = 1, 2) and Fz. Instead of traditional postulation of down-gradient turbulent transport, the EFB closure determines the eddy viscosity and eddy conductivity from the steady-state version of the budget equations for τi and Fz. Furthermore, the EFB closure involves new prognostic equation for turbulent dissipation time scale tT, and extends the theory to non-steady turbulence regimes accounting for non-gradient and non-local turbulent transports (when the traditional concepts of eddy viscosity and eddy conductivity become generally inconsistent). Our special interest is in asymptotic behavior of the EFB closure in strongly stable stratification. For this purpose, we consider plane Couette flow, namely, the flow between two infinite parallel plates, one of which is moving relative to another. We use a set of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) experiments at the highest possible Reynolds numbers for different bulk Richardson numbers (Druzhinin et al., 2015). To demonstrate potential improvements in Numerical Weather Prediction models, we test the new closure model in various idealized cases, varying stratification from the neutral and conventionally neutral to stable (GABLS1) running a test RANS model and HARMONIE/AROME model in single-column mode. Results are compared with DNS and LES (Large Eddy Simulation) runs and different numerical weather prediction models.

  9. A Well-Designed Budget Yields Long-Term Rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinola, Mary; Knirk, Frederick G.

    1984-01-01

    Defines zero-based budgeting, compares it to traditional budgeting, and discusses five steps of a zero-base budget model: determining organization's goals and refining them into objectives; listing activities to achieve objectives in decision packages; evaluating decision packages; ranking packages by order of importance; and funding decision…

  10. Understanding transport in model water desalination membranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Edwin

    Polyamide based thin film composites represent the the state-of-the-art nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes used in water desalination. The performance of these membranes is enabled by the ultrathin (~100 nm) crosslinked polyamide film in facilitating the selective transport of water over salt ions. While these materials have been refined over the last several decades, understanding the relationships between polyamide structure and membrane performance remains a challenge because of the complex and heterogeneous nature of the polyamide film. In this contribution, we present our approach to addressing this challenge by studying the transport properties of model polyamide membranes synthesized via molecular layer-by-layer (mLbL) assembly. First, we demonstrate that mLbL can successfully construct polyamide membranes with well-defined nanoscale thickness and roughness using a variety of monomer formulations. Next, we present measurement tools for characterizing the network structure and transport of these model polyamide membranes. Specifically, we used X-ray and neutron scattering techniques to characterize their structure as well as a recently-developed indentation based poromechanics approach to extrapolate their water diffusion coefficient. Finally, we illustrate how these measurements can provide insight into the original problem by linking the key polyamide network properties, i.e. water-polyamide interaction parameter and characteristic network mesh size, to the membrane performance.

  11. Development of urban water consumption models for the City of Los Angeles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

    2011-12-01

    Population growth and rapid urbanization coupled with uncertain climate change are causing new challenges for meeting urban water needs. In arid and semi-arid regions, increasing drought periods and decreasing precipitation have led to water supply shortages and cities are struggling with trade-offs between the water needs of growing urban populations and the well-being of urban ecosystems. The goal of the current research is to build models that can represent urban water use patterns in semi-arid cities by identifying the determinants that control both total and outdoor residential water use over the Los Angeles urban domain. The initial database contains monthly water use records aggregated to the zip code level collected from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) from 2000 to 2010. Residential water use was normalized per capita and was correlated with socio-demographic, economic, climatic and vegetation characteristics across the City for the 2000-2010 period. Results show that ethnicity, per capita income, and the average number of persons per household are linearly related to total water use per capita. Inter-annual differences in precipitation and implementation of conservation measures affect water use levels across the City. The high variability in water use patterns across the City also appears strongly influenced by income and education levels. The temporal analysis of vegetation indices in the studied neighborhoods shows little correlation between precipitation patterns and vegetation greenness. Urban vegetation appears well-watered, presenting the same greenness activity over the study period despite an overall decrease in water use across the City. We hypothesize that over-watering is occurring and that outdoor water use represents a significant part of the residential water budget in various regions of the City. A multiple regression model has been developed that integrates these fundamental controlling factors to simulate residential

  12. Closing the gap between budget formulation and execution

    OpenAIRE

    Lowery, Erainust

    2000-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis is a case study analysis of the Resource Management Office of the Bureau of Naval Personnel (PERS-02). Specifically, an analysis of projected versus actual budget figures was conducted. The purpose of the research was to explain anomalies in the budget formulation figures as compared to actual budget execution figures and define ways to improve the protocol between budget activities. Based on model comparisons, document rev...

  13. Political Budget Cycles in the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Gregor

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides research on the theme of the political budget cycles. The goal is to find out whether or not the government tries to manipulate the state budget and its components for the purpose of re-election across the countries of the European Union. In order to verify this theory a dynamic panel data model was used. The results were significant, but only if predetermined elections were not counted into the estimations. In that case, the theory of the political budget cycles could be accepted as valid for the EU countries. The main driving force of the political budget cycles across the countries of the European Union is fluctuation of the government expenditures. During the election year, the government expenditures are higher, and a year after the election, government expenditures are lower. This is reflected into the state budget balance.

  14. A hierarchy of energy- and flux-budget (EFB) turbulence closure models for stably stratified geophysical flows

    CERN Document Server

    Zilitinkevich, S S; Kleeorin, N; Rogachevskii, I; Esau, I

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we advance physical background of the EFB turbulence closure and present its comprehensive description. It is based on four budget equations for the second moments: turbulent kinetic and potential energies (TKE and TPE) and vertical turbulent fluxes of momentum and buoyancy; a new relaxation equation for the turbulent dissipation time-scale; and advanced concept of the inter-component exchange of TKE. The EFB closure is designed for stratified, rotating geophysical flows from neutral to very stable. In accordance to modern experimental evidence, it grants maintaining turbulence by the velocity shear at any gradient Richardson number Ri, and distinguishes between the two principally different regimes: "strong turbulence" at Ri 1 typical of the free atmosphere or deep ocean, where Pr_T asymptotically linearly increases with increasing Ri that implies strong suppressing of the heat transfer compared to momentum transfer. For use in different applications, the EFB turbulence closure is formulated a...

  15. Lattice model for water-solute mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlan, A P; Almarza, N G; Barbosa, M C

    2016-10-14

    A lattice model for the study of mixtures of associating liquids is proposed. Solvent and solute are modeled by adapting the associating lattice gas (ALG) model. The nature of interaction of solute/solvent is controlled by tuning the energy interactions between the patches of ALG model. We have studied three set of parameters, resulting in, hydrophilic, inert, and hydrophobic interactions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations were carried out, and the behavior of pure components and the excess properties of the mixtures have been studied. The pure components, water (solvent) and solute, have quite similar phase diagrams, presenting gas, low density liquid, and high density liquid phases. In the case of solute, the regions of coexistence are substantially reduced when compared with both the water and the standard ALG models. A numerical procedure has been developed in order to attain series of results at constant pressure from simulations of the lattice gas model in the grand canonical ensemble. The excess properties of the mixtures, volume and enthalpy as the function of the solute fraction, have been studied for different interaction parameters of the model. Our model is able to reproduce qualitatively well the excess volume and enthalpy for different aqueous solutions. For the hydrophilic case, we show that the model is able to reproduce the excess volume and enthalpy of mixtures of small alcohols and amines. The inert case reproduces the behavior of large alcohols such as propanol, butanol, and pentanol. For the last case (hydrophobic), the excess properties reproduce the behavior of ionic liquids in aqueous solution.

  16. Modeling regulated water utility investment incentives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, S.; Harou, J. J.

    2014-12-01

    This work attempts to model the infrastructure investment choices of privatized water utilities subject to rate of return and price cap regulation. The goal is to understand how regulation influences water companies' investment decisions such as their desire to engage in transfers with neighbouring companies. We formulate a profit maximization capacity expansion model that finds the schedule of new supply, demand management and transfer schemes that maintain the annual supply-demand balance and maximize a companies' profit under the 2010-15 price control process in England. Regulatory incentives for costs savings are also represented in the model. These include: the CIS scheme for the capital expenditure (capex) and incentive allowance schemes for the operating expenditure (opex) . The profit-maximizing investment program (what to build, when and what size) is compared with the least cost program (social optimum). We apply this formulation to several water companies in South East England to model performance and sensitivity to water network particulars. Results show that if companies' are able to outperform the regulatory assumption on the cost of capital, a capital bias can be generated, due to the fact that the capital expenditure, contrarily to opex, can be remunerated through the companies' regulatory capital value (RCV). The occurrence of the 'capital bias' or its entity depends on the extent to which a company can finance its investments at a rate below the allowed cost of capital. The bias can be reduced by the regulatory penalties for underperformances on the capital expenditure (CIS scheme); Sensitivity analysis can be applied by varying the CIS penalty to see how and to which extent this impacts the capital bias effect. We show how regulatory changes could potentially be devised to partially remove the 'capital bias' effect. Solutions potentially include allowing for incentives on total expenditure rather than separately for capex and opex and allowing

  17. Water Quality Modeling System for Coastal Archipelagos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuomi, L.; Miettunen, E.; Lukkari, K.; Puttonen, I.; Ropponen, J.; Tikka, K.; Piiparinen, J.; Lignell, R.

    2016-02-01

    Coastal seas are encountering pressures from eutrophication, fishing, ship emissions and coastal construction. Sustainable development and use of these areas require science-based guidance with high quality data and efficient tools. Our study area, the Archipelago Sea, is located in the northern part of the semi-enclosed and brackish water Baltic Sea. It is a shallow, topographically heterogeneous and eutrophic sub-basin, covered with thousands of small islands and islets. The catchment area is 8950 km2and has ca. 500 000 inhabitants. We are developing a modeling system that can be used by local authorities and in ministry level decision making to evaluate the environmental impacts that may result from decisions and changes made both in the watershed and in the coastal areas. The modeling system consists of 3D hydrodynamic model COHERENS and water quality model FICOS, both applied to the area with high spatial resolution. Models use river discharge and nutrient loading data supplied by watershed model VEMALA and include loading from multiple point sources located in the Archipelago Sea. An easy-to-use interface made specifically to answer the end-user needs, includes possibility to modify the nutrient loadings and perform model simulations to selected areas and time periods. To ensure the quality and performance of the modeling system, comprehensive measurement dataset including hydrographic, nutrient, chlorophyll-a and bottom sediment data, was gathered based on monitoring and research campaigns previously carried out in the Archipelago Sea. Verification showed that hydrodynamic model was able to simulate surface temperature and salinity fields and their seasonal variation with good accuracy in this complex area. However, the dynamics of the deeper layers need to be improved, especially in areas that have sharp bathymetric gradients. The preliminary analysis of the water quality model results showed that the model was able to reproduce the basic characteristics of

  18. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) | Science Inventory ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stormwater discharges continue to cause impairment of our Nation’s waterbodies. Regulations that require the retention and/or treatment of frequent, small storms that dominate runoff volumes and pollutant loads are becoming more common. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to help support local, state, and national stormwater management objectives to reduce runoff through infiltration and retention. SWMM was first developed in 1971 and has undergone several major upgrades since then. To inform the public on EPA's green infrastructure models.

  19. Integrating the effects of salinity on the physiology of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, in the northern Gulf of Mexico through a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavaud, Romain; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Casas, Sandra M.; Bacher, C.; La Peyre, Jerome F.

    2017-01-01

    We present a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, which enables the inclusion of salinity as a third environmental variable, on top of the standard foodr and temperature variables. Salinity changes have various effects on the physiology of oysters, potentially altering filtration and respiration rates, and ultimately impacting growth, reproduction and mortality. We tested different hypotheses as to how to include these effects in a DEB model for C. virginica. Specifically, we tested two potential mechanisms to explain changes in oyster shell growth (cm), tissue dry weight (g) and gonad dry weight (g) when salinity moves away from the ideal range: 1) a negative effect on filtration rate and 2) an additional somatic maintenance cost. Comparative simulations of shell growth, dry tissue biomass and dry gonad weight in two monitored sites in coastal Louisiana experiencing salinity from 0 to 28 were statistically analyzed to determine the best hypothesis. Model parameters were estimated through the covariation method, using literature data and a set of specifically designed ecophysiological experiments. The model was validated through independent field studies in estuaries along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Our results suggest that salinity impacts C. virginica’s energy budget predominantly through effects on filtration rate. With an overwhelming number of environmental factors impacting organisms, and increasing exposure to novel and extreme conditions, the mechanistic nature of the DEB model with its ability to incorporate more than the standard food and temperature variables provides a powerful tool to verify hypotheses and predict individual organism performance across a range of conditions.

  20. WFIRST: Coronagraph Systems Engineering and Performance Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poberezhskiy, Ilya; cady, eric; Frerking, Margaret A.; Kern, Brian; Nemati, Bijan; Noecker, Martin; Seo, Byoung-Joon; Zhao, Feng; Zhou, Hanying

    2018-01-01

    The WFIRST coronagraph instrument (CGI) will be the first in-space coronagraph using active wavefront control to directly image and characterize mature exoplanets and zodiacal disks in reflected starlight. For CGI systems engineering, including requirements development, CGI performance is predicted using a hierarchy of performance budgets to estimate various noise components — spatial and temporal flux variations — that obscure exoplanet signals in direct imaging and spectroscopy configurations. These performance budgets are validated through a robust integrated modeling and testbed model validation efforts.We present the performance budgeting framework used by WFIRST for the flow-down of coronagraph science requirements, mission constraints, and observatory interfaces to measurable instrument engineering parameters.

  1. Multimedia Budget Presentations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Jonathon T.; Rodabaugh, Karl

    This book provides an overview of the potential of multimedia budget proposals. The text reviews the fundamentals of multimedia, emphasizing how it improves communication by using multiple levels of input. A process for analyzing many of the budget decisions that must be made, as adapted from Robert Finney's five-step process of "Gap…

  2. Monthly Water Balance Model Hydrology Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andy; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2016-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (MWBM) was driven with precipitation and temperature using a station-based dataset for current conditions (1950 to 2010) and selected statistically-downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) for current and future conditions (1950 to 2099) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using hydrologic response units from the Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling (http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.5066/F7542KMD). Six MWBM output variables (actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff (RO), streamflow (STRM), soil moisture storage (SOIL), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the two MWBM input variables (atmospheric temperature (TAVE) and precipitation (PPT)) were summarized for hydrologic response units and aggregated at points of interest on a stream network. Results were then organized into the Monthly Water Balance Hydrology Futures database, an open-access database using netCDF format (http://cida-eros-mows1.er.usgs.gov/thredds/dodsC/nwb_pub/).  Methods used to calibrate and parameterize the MWBM are detailed in the Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)  paper "Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States" by Bock and others (2016).  See the discussion paper link in the "Related External Resources" section for access.  Supplemental data files related to the plots and data analysis in Bock and others (2016) can be found in the HESS-2015-325.zip folder in the "Attached Files" section.  Detailed information on the files and data can be found in the ReadMe.txt contained within the zipped folder. Recommended citation of discussion paper:Bock, A.R., Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Markstrom, S.L., and Atkinson, R.D., 2016, Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 20, 2861-2876, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2861-2016, 2016

  3. Preparing the operating budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, R B

    1983-12-01

    The process of preparing a hospital pharmacy budget is presented. The desired characteristics of a budget and the process by which it is developed and approved are described. Fixed, flexible, and zero-based budget types are explained, as are the major components of a well-developed budget: expense, workload, productivity, revenue, and capital equipment and other expenditures. Specific methods for projecting expenses and revenues, based on historical data, are presented along with a discussion of variables that must be considered in order to achieve an accurate and useful budget. The current shift in emphasis away from revenue capture toward critical analysis of pharmacy costs underscores the importance of budgetary analysis for hospital pharmacy managers.

  4. Density maximum and polarizable models of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Péter T.; Baranyai, András

    2012-08-01

    To estimate accurately the density of water over a wide range of temperatures with a density maximum at 4 °C is one of the most stringent tests of molecular models. The shape of the curve influences the ability to describe critical properties and to predict the freezing temperature. While it was demonstrated that with a proper parameter fit nonpolarizable models can approximate this behavior accurately, it is much more difficult to do this for polarizable models. We provide a short overview of ρ-T diagrams for existing models, then we give an explanation of this difficulty. We present a version of the BK model [A. Baranyai and P. T. Kiss, J. Chem. Phys. 133, 144109 (2010), 10.1063/1.3490660; A. Baranyai and P. T. Kiss, J. Chem. Phys. 135, 234110 (2011)], 10.1063/1.3670962 which is capable to predict the density of water over a wide range of temperature. The BK model uses the charge-on-spring method with three Gaussian charges. Since the experimental dipole moment and the geometry is fixed, and the quadrupole moment is approximated by a least mean square procedure, parameters of the repulsion and dispersive attraction forces remained as free tools to match experimental properties. Relying on a simplified but plausible justification, the new version of the model uses repulsion and attraction as functions of the induced dipole moment of the molecule. The repulsive force increases, while the attractive force decreases with the size of the molecular dipole moment. At the same time dipole moment dependent dispersion forces are taking part in the polarization of the molecule. This scheme iterates well and, in addition to a reasonable density-temperature function, creates dipole distributions with accurate estimation of the dielectric constant of the liquid.

  5. Modeling terahertz heating effects on water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Torben T L; Withayachumnankul, Withawat; Jepsen, Peter U; Abbott, Derek

    2010-03-01

    We apply Kirchhoff's heat equation to model the influence of a CW terahertz beam on a sample of water, which is assumed to be static. We develop a generalized model, which easily can be applied to other liquids and solids by changing the material constants. If the terahertz light source is focused down to a spot with a diameter of 0.5 mm, we find that the steady-state temperature increase per milliwatt of transmitted power is 1.8?C/mW. A quantum cascade laser can produce a CW beam in the order of several milliwatts and this motivates the need to estimate the effect of beam power on the sample temperature. For THz time domain systems, we indicate how to use our model as a worst-case approximation based on the beam average power. It turns out that THz pulses created from photoconductive antennas give a negligible increase in temperature. As biotissue contains a high water content, this leads to a discussion of worst-case predictions for THz heating of the human body in order to motivate future detailed study. An open source Matlab implementation of our model is freely available for use at www.eleceng.adelaide.edu.au/thz.

  6. Modelling trihalomethanes formation in water supply systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Cristo, Cristiana; Esposito, Giovanni; Leopardi, Angelo

    2013-01-01

    Chlorination is the most widely used method for disinfection of drinking water, but there are concerns about the formation of by-products, such as trihalomethanes (THMs), since the chronic exposure to them may pose risks to human health. For these reasons regulations fix maximum acceptable THMs levels throughout distribution networks, so it is very important to be able to correctly reproduce their formation. In the literature many models for predicting THMs formation have been developed, both based on empirical relationships and on kinetics involved during chlorine reactions. In this work the use of some of these models and their reliability in real situations is investigated through the application to the Aurunci-Valcanneto Water Supply System in Southern Lazio (Italy). The comparison of the performances of 18 selected literature empirical models furnishes interesting observations, indicating that the formula, developed using field data, results in being more suitable for reproducing THMs formation for the presented case study. Other considerations are also offered from the comparison with the results obtained using a simple first order kinetic model, calibrated using measured data.

  7. Modelling Shallow Water Wakes Using a Hybrid Turbulence Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clemente Rodriguez-Cuevas

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical research with different turbulence models for shallow water equations was carried out. This was done in order to investigate which model has the ability to reproduce more accurately the wakes produced by the shock of the water hitting a submerged island inside a canal. The study of this phenomenon is important for the numerical methods application advancement in the simulation of free surface flows since these models involve a number of simplifications and assumptions that can have a significant impact on the numerical solutions quality and thus can not reproduce correctly the physical phenomenon. The numerical experiments were carried out on an experimental case under controlled conditions, consisting of a channel with a submerged conical island. The numerical scheme is based on the Eulerian-Lagrangian finite volume method with four turbulence models, three mixing lengths (ml, and one joining k-ϵ on the horizontal axis with a mixing-length model (ml on the vertical axis. The experimental results show that a k-ϵ with ml turbulence model makes it possible to approach the experimental results in a more qualitative manner. We found that when using only a k-ϵ model in the vertical and horizontal direction, the numerical results overestimate the experimental data. Additionally the computing time is reduced by simplifying the turbulence model.

  8. Modelling of water permeability in cementitious materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guang, Ye; Lura, Pietro; van Breugel, K.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a network model to predict the permeability of cement paste from a numerical simulation of its microstructure. Based on a linked list pore network structure, the effective hydraulic conductivity is estimated and the fluid flow is calculated according to the Hagen-Poiseuille law....... The pressure gradient at all nodes is calculated with the Gauss elimination method and the absolute permeability of the pore network is calculated directly from Darcy's law. Finally, the permeability model is validated by comparison with direct water permeability measurements. According to this model...... and by the connectivity of the pore structure, regardless of w/c ratio and curing age. The permeability of cement pastes could be predicted reasonably well when a minimum particle size 1 mu m was chosen for the cement....

  9. Modelling water and salt balances in a deep, groundwater-throughflow lake-Lake Purrumbete, southeastern Australia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John; Leahy, Paul

    2016-01-01

    .... A modified difference water budget method for lakes, that estimates net groundwater flux through the difference between the level of the lake and the water table, along with the specific yield...

  10. Suitability of the water balance model LARSIM to determine the impact of climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlinger, K.

    2003-04-01

    The Large Area Runoff Simulation Model (LARSIM) was developed to simulate continuously the water balance of large river basins. Beside the runoff generation in the area and the translation and retention in river channels, LARSIM includes the processes of interception, evapo-transpiration and water storage in soils and aquifers. Snow accumulation and snow melt can be considered as well as artificial influences (e.g. storage basins, diversions or water transfer between different basins). LARSIM combines well-tried deterministic hydrological model components, which are as far as possible generally applicable and are based on accessible system data for the land surface. Emphasis is laid on the reliable determination of evapotranspiration by using the Penman-Monteith-equations. Evapotranspiration and the soil water budget are calculated separately for different land uses and field capacities of the soils. For the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg (SW-Germany, approx. 36.000 km2) water balance models were set up which are based on raster cells (square grid 1 km2). The model build up was done to a large extent computer-aided on the basis of extensive digital system data (elevation model, vectored river network, satellite classification of land use, field capacities of soils). For each raster cell up to 16 land use classes are considered separately. The models shall be used for the estimation of the effects of possible climatic modifications on the water regime (like discharge, infiltration, evaporation). The results of the regional hydrostatic atmospheric circulation model REMO will be applied as input data to the water balance models to define the impact of climate change on the hydrological processes. Especially for flood prevention, State officials and the administration expect reliable information on the expected changes. Prior to the use of the water balance model for climatic change calculations, the uncertainty of the model to simulate the actual hydrological conditions

  11. Global Carbon Budget 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Sitch, Stephen; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Manning, Andrew C.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Houghton, Richard A.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Alin, Simone; Andrews, Oliver D.; Anthoni, Peter; Barbero, Leticia; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Currie, Kim; Delire, Christine; Doney, Scott C.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Harris, Ian; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Hoppema, Mario; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lombardozzi, Danica; Melton, Joe R.; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; O'Brien, Kevin; Olsen, Are; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Ono, Tsuneo; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rödenbeck, Christian; Salisbury, Joe; Schuster, Ute; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Takahashi, Taro; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Viovy, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke

    2016-11-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9

  12. Global Carbon Budget 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quéré, Corinne Le; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Sitch, Stephen; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Manning, Andrew C.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Houghton, Richard A.; hide 12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20170008485_hide">

    2016-01-01

    Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured dir