WorldWideScience

Sample records for waste predictive modeling

  1. Ship waste quantities prediction model for the port of Belgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VLADANKA PRESBURGER ULNIKOVIĆ

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the issues related to the waste management in river ports in general and especially in the port of Belgrade. Data on solid waste, waste oils, oily waters, gray water and black water have been collected for a period of five years. The methodology of data collection is presented. Trends of data were analyzed and the regression model was used to predict the waste quantities in the Belgrade port. This data could be utilized as a basis for the calculation of the equipment capacity for waste selective collection, treatment and storage. The results presented in this study establish the need for an orga¬nized management system for this type of waste which can be achieved either by constructing and providing new specialized terminal or by providing mobile floating facilities and other plants in the Port of Belgrade for these kinds of ser¬vices. In addition to the above, the legislative and organizational strategy of waste management has been explored to complete the study because the im¬pact of good waste management on environment and prevention of environ¬mental accidents would be highly beneficial. This study demonstrated that ad¬dressing these issues should be considered at international as well as national level.

  2. E-waste Management and Refurbishment Prediction (EMARP) Model for Refurbishment Industries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resmi, N G; Fasila, K A

    2017-10-01

    This paper proposes a novel algorithm for establishing a standard methodology to manage and refurbish e-waste called E-waste Management And Refurbishment Prediction (EMARP), which can be adapted by refurbishing industries in order to improve their performance. Waste management, particularly, e-waste management is a serious issue nowadays. Computerization has been into waste management in different ways. Much of the computerization has happened in planning the waste collection, recycling and disposal process and also managing documents and reports related to waste management. This paper proposes a computerized model to make predictions for e-waste refurbishment. All possibilities for reusing the common components among the collected e-waste samples are predicted, thus minimizing the wastage. Simulation of the model has been done to analyse the accuracy in the predictions made by the system. The model can be scaled to accommodate the real-world scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Developing models for the prediction of hospital healthcare waste generation rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesfahun, Esubalew; Kumie, Abera; Beyene, Abebe

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the number of health institutions, along with frequent use of disposable medical products, has contributed to the increase of healthcare waste generation rate. For proper handling of healthcare waste, it is crucial to predict the amount of waste generation beforehand. Predictive models can help to optimise healthcare waste management systems, set guidelines and evaluate the prevailing strategies for healthcare waste handling and disposal. However, there is no mathematical model developed for Ethiopian hospitals to predict healthcare waste generation rate. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop models for the prediction of a healthcare waste generation rate. A longitudinal study design was used to generate long-term data on solid healthcare waste composition, generation rate and develop predictive models. The results revealed that the healthcare waste generation rate has a strong linear correlation with the number of inpatients (R(2) = 0.965), and a weak one with the number of outpatients (R(2) = 0.424). Statistical analysis was carried out to develop models for the prediction of the quantity of waste generated at each hospital (public, teaching and private). In these models, the number of inpatients and outpatients were revealed to be significant factors on the quantity of waste generated. The influence of the number of inpatients and outpatients treated varies at different hospitals. Therefore, different models were developed based on the types of hospitals. © The Author(s) 2015.

  4. Gas Generation in Radioactive Wastes - MAGGAS Predictive Life Cycle Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streatfield, R.E.; Hebditch, D.J.; Swift, B.T.; Hoch, A.R.; Constable, M.

    2006-01-01

    Gases may form from radioactive waste in quantities posing different potential hazards throughout the waste package life cycle. The latter includes surface storage, transport, placing in an operating repository, storage in the repository prior to backfill, closure and the post-closure stage. Potentially hazardous situations involving gas include fire, flood, dropped packages, blocked package vents and disruption to a sealed repository. The MAGGAS (Magnox Gas generation) model was developed to assess gas formation for safety assessments during all stages of the waste package life cycle. This is a requirement of the U.K. regulatory authorities and Nirex and progress in this context is discussed. The processes represented in the model include: Corrosion, microbial degradation, radiolysis, solid-state diffusion, chemico-physical degradation and pressurisation. The calculation was split into three time periods. First the 'aerobic phase' is used to model the periods of surface storage, transport and repository operations including storage in the repository prior to backfill. The second and third periods were designated 'anaerobic phase 1' and 'anaerobic phase 2' and used to model the waste packages in the post-closure phase of the repository. The various significant gas production processes are modeled in each phase. MAGGAS (currently Version 8) is mounted on an Excel spreadsheet for ease of use and speed, has 22 worksheets and is operated routinely for assessing waste packages (e.g. for ventilation of stores and pressurisation of containers). Ten operational and decommissioning generic nuclear power station waste streams were defined as initial inputs, which included ion exchange materials, sludges and concentrates, fuel element debris, graphite debris, activated components, contaminated items, desiccants and catalysts. (authors)

  5. Predictive modeling of crystal accumulation in high-level waste glass melters processing radioactive waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyáš, Josef; Gervasio, Vivianaluxa; Sannoh, Sulaiman E.; Kruger, Albert A.

    2017-11-01

    The effectiveness of high-level waste vitrification at Hanford's Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant may be limited by precipitation/accumulation of spinel crystals [(Fe, Ni, Mn, Zn)(Fe, Cr)2O4] in the glass discharge riser of Joule-heated ceramic melters during idling. These crystals do not affect glass durability; however, if accumulated in thick layers, they can clog the melter and prevent discharge of molten glass into canisters. To address this problem, an empirical model was developed that can predict thicknesses of accumulated layers as a function of glass composition. This model predicts well the accumulation of single crystals and/or small-scale agglomerates, but excessive agglomeration observed in high-Ni-Fe glass resulted in an underprediction of accumulated layers, which gradually worsened over time as an increased number of agglomerates formed. The accumulation rate of ∼53.8 ± 3.7 μm/h determined for this glass will result in a ∼26 mm-thick layer after 20 days of melter idling.

  6. An Engineering Model for Prediction of Waste Incineration in a Dump Combustor

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Arunajatesan, S

    1997-01-01

    An engineering model that can be used to obtain predictions of axial distributions of temperature and species concentrations in complex flows has been formulated and applied to waste incineration in a dump combustor...

  7. Model predictive control of a waste heat recovery system for automotive diesel engines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feru, E.; Willems, F.P.T.; de Jager, A.G.; Steinbuch, M.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a switching Model Predictive Control strategy is designed for an automotive Waste Heat Recovery system with two parallel evaporators. The objective is to maximize Waste Heat Recovery system output power, while satisfying safe operation under highly dynamic disturbances from the

  8. Modelling and prediction of radionuclide migration from shallow, subgrade nuclear waste facilities in arid environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A.; Ward, A.; Geldenhuis, S.

    1986-01-01

    Over the past fifteen years, prodigious efforts and significant advances have been made in methods of prediction of the migration rate of dissolved species in aqueous systems. Despite such work, there remain formidable obstacles in prediction of solute transport in the unsaturated zone over the long time periods necessarily related to the radionuclide bearing wastes. The objective of this paper is to consider the methods, issues and problems with the use of predictive solute transport models for radionuclide migration from nuclear waste disposal in arid environments, if and when engineering containment of the waste fails. Having considered the ability for long term solute prediction for a number of geological environments, the advantages of a disposal environment in which the solute transport process is diffusion controlled will be described

  9. Development of Models to Predict the Redox State of Nuclear Waste Containment Glass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinet, O.; Guirat, R.; Advocat, T. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), Departement de Traitement et de Conditionnement des Dechets, Marcoule, BP 71171, 30207 Bagnols-sur-Ceze Cedex (France); Phalippou, J. [Universite de Montpellier II, Laboratoire des Colloides, Verres et Nanomateriaux, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5 (France)

    2008-07-01

    Vitrification is one of the recommended immobilization routes for nuclear waste, and is currently implemented at industrial scale in several countries, notably for high-level waste. To optimize nuclear waste vitrification, research is conducted to specify suitable glass formulations and develop more effective processes. This research is based not only on experiments at laboratory or technological scale, but also on computer models. Vitrified nuclear waste often contains several multi-valent species whose oxidation state can impact the properties of the melt and of the final glass; these include iron, cerium, ruthenium, manganese, chromium and nickel. Cea is therefore also developing models to predict the final glass redox state. Given the raw materials and production conditions, the model predicts the oxygen fugacity at equilibrium in the melt. It can also estimate the ratios between the oxidation states of the multi-valent species contained in the molten glass. The oxidizing or reductive nature of the atmosphere above the glass melt is also taken into account. Unlike the models used in the conventional glass industry based on empirical methods with a limited range of application, the models proposed are based on the thermodynamic properties of the redox species contained in the waste vitrification feed stream. The thermodynamic data on which the model is based concern the relationship between the glass redox state and the oxygen fugacity in the molten glass. The model predictions were compared with oxygen fugacity measurements for some fifty glasses. The experiments carried out at laboratory and industrial scale with a cold crucible melter. The oxygen fugacity of the glass samples was measured by electrochemical methods and compared with the predicted value. The differences between the predicted and measured oxygen fugacity values were generally less than 0.5 Log unit. (authors)

  10. Predictive modeling of crystal accumulation in high-level waste glass melters processing radioactive waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matyáš, Josef; Gervasio, Vivianaluxa; Sannoh, Sulaiman E.; Kruger, Albert A.

    2017-11-01

    The effectiveness of HLW vitrification is limited by precipitation/accumulation of spinel crystals [(Fe, Ni, Mn, Zn)(Fe, Cr)2O4] in the glass discharge riser of Joule-heated ceramic melters during idling. These crystals do not affect glass durability; however, if accumulated in thick layer, they can clog the melter and prevent discharge of molten glass into canisters. To address this problem, an empirical model was developed that can predict thicknesses of accumulated layers as a function of glass composition. This model predicts well the accumulation of single crystals and/or small-scale agglomerates, but, excessive agglomeration observed in high-Ni-Fe glass resulted in an under-prediction of accumulated layers, which gradually worsen over time as an increased number of agglomerates formed. Accumulation rate of ~53.8 ± 3.7 µm/h determined for this glass will result in ~26 mm thick layer in 20 days of melter idling.

  11. Corrosion models for predictions of performance of high-level radioactive-waste containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, J.C.; McCright, R.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Gdowski, G.E. [KMI Energy Services, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1991-11-01

    The present plan for disposal of high-level radioactive waste in the US is to seal it in containers before emplacement in a geologic repository. A proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being evaluated for its suitability as a geologic repository. The containers will probably be made of either an austenitic or a copper-based alloy. Models of alloy degradation are being used to predict the long-term performance of the containers under repository conditions. The models are of uniform oxidation and corrosion, localized corrosion, and stress corrosion cracking, and are applicable to worst-case scenarios of container degradation. This paper reviews several of the models.

  12. Development and validation of a CFD model predicting the backfill process of a nuclear waste gallery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopala, Vinay Ramohalli; Lycklama a Nijeholt, Jan-Aiso; Bakker, Paul; Haverkate, Benno

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → This work presents the CFD simulation of the backfill process of Supercontainers with nuclear waste emplaced in a disposal gallery. → The cement-based material used for backfill is grout and the flow of grout is modelled as a Bingham fluid. → The model is verified against an analytical solution and validated against the flowability tests for concrete. → Comparison between backfill plexiglas experiment and simulation shows a distinct difference in the filling pattern. → The numerical model needs to be further developed to include segregation effects and thixotropic behavior of grout. - Abstract: Nuclear waste material may be stored in underground tunnels for long term storage. The example treated in this article is based on the current Belgian disposal concept for High-Level Waste (HLW), in which the nuclear waste material is packed in concrete shielded packages, called Supercontainers, which are inserted into these tunnels. After placement of the packages in the underground tunnels, the remaining voids between the packages and the tunnel lining is filled-up with a cement-based material called grout in order to encase the stored containers into the underground spacing. This encasement of the stored containers inside the tunnels is known as the backfill process. A good backfill process is necessary to stabilize the waste gallery against ground settlements. A numerical model to simulate the backfill process can help to improve and optimize the process by ensuring a homogeneous filling with no air voids and also optimization of the injection positions to achieve a homogeneous filling. The objective of the present work is to develop such a numerical code that can predict the backfill process well and validate the model against the available experiments and analytical solutions. In the present work the rheology of Grout is modelled as a Bingham fluid which is implemented in OpenFOAM - a finite volume-based open source computational fluid

  13. An empirical model for prediction of household solid waste generation rate - A case study of Dhanbad, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Atul; Samadder, S R

    2017-10-01

    Accurate prediction of the quantity of household solid waste generation is very much essential for effective management of municipal solid waste (MSW). In actual practice, modelling methods are often found useful for precise prediction of MSW generation rate. In this study, two models have been proposed that established the relationships between the household solid waste generation rate and the socioeconomic parameters, such as household size, total family income, education, occupation and fuel used in the kitchen. Multiple linear regression technique was applied to develop the two models, one for the prediction of biodegradable MSW generation rate and the other for non-biodegradable MSW generation rate for individual households of the city Dhanbad, India. The results of the two models showed that the coefficient of determinations (R 2 ) were 0.782 for biodegradable waste generation rate and 0.676 for non-biodegradable waste generation rate using the selected independent variables. The accuracy tests of the developed models showed convincing results, as the predicted values were very close to the observed values. Validation of the developed models with a new set of data indicated a good fit for actual prediction purpose with predicted R 2 values of 0.76 and 0.64 for biodegradable and non-biodegradable MSW generation rate respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Model Predictive Control of Offshore Power Stations With Waste Heat Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierobon, Leonardo; Chan, Richard; Li, Xiangan

    2016-01-01

    The implementation of waste heat recovery units on oil and gas offshore platforms demands advances in both design methods and control systems. Model-based control algorithms can play an important role in the operation of offshore power stations. A novel regulator based on a linear model predictive...... control (MPC) coupled with a steady-state performance optimizer has been developed in the SIMULINK language and is documented in the paper. The test case is the regulation of a power system serving an oil and gas platform in the Norwegian Sea. One of the three gas turbines is combined with an organic...... Rankine cycle (ORC) turbogenerator to increase the energy conversion efficiency. Results show a potential reduction of frequency drop up to 40%for a step in the load set-point of 4 MW, compared to proportional–integral control systems. Fuel savings in the range of 2–3% are also expected by optimizing on...

  15. A model for predicting the lifetimes of Grade-2 titanium nuclear waste containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shoesmith, D W; Ikeda, B M; Bailey, M G; Quinn, M J; LeNeveu, D M [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Pinawa, MB (Canada). Whiteshell Labs.

    1995-08-01

    The development of a model to predict the lifetimes of Grade-2 titanium containers for nuclear fuel waste is described. This model assumes that the corrosion processes most likely to lead to container failure are crevice corrosion, hydrogen-induced cracking and general corrosion. Because of the expected evolution of waste vault conditions from initially warm (<{approx} 100 deg C) and oxidizing to eventually cool (<30 deg C) and non-oxiding, the period for which crevice corrosion can propagate will be limited by repassivation, and long container lifetimes will be achieved since the rate of general corrosion is extremely low. However, in the model presented, not only is it assumed that crevices will initiate rapidly on all containers, but also that the propagation of these crevices will continue indefinitely since conditions will remain sufficiently oxiding for repassivation to be avoided. The mathematical development of the model is described in detail. A simple ramped distribution is used to describe the failures due to the presence of initial defects. For crevice corrosion the propagation rates are assumed to be normally distributed and to be determined predominantly by temperature. The temperature dependence of the crevice propagation rate is determined from the calculated cooling profiles for the containers and an experimentally determined Arrhenius relationship for crevice propagation rates. The cooling profiles are approximated by double or single step functions, depending on the location of the container within the vault. The experimental data upon which this model is based is extensively reviewed. This review includes descriptions of the available data to describe and quantify the processes of general corrosion, crevice corrosion and hydrogen-induced cracking. For crevice corrosion and hydrogen-induced cracking the results of studies on both Grades-2 and -12 are presented. Also, the effects of impurities in the Grade-2 material are discussed.

  16. A model for predicting the lifetimes of Grade-2 titanium nuclear waste containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoesmith, D.W.; Ikeda, B.M.; Bailey, M.G.; Quinn, M.J.; LeNeveu, D.M.

    1995-08-01

    The development of a model to predict the lifetimes of Grade-2 titanium containers for nuclear fuel waste is described. This model assumes that the corrosion processes most likely to lead to container failure are crevice corrosion, hydrogen-induced cracking and general corrosion. Because of the expected evolution of waste vault conditions from initially warm (<∼ 100 deg C) and oxidizing to eventually cool (<30 deg C) and non-oxiding, the period for which crevice corrosion can propagate will be limited by repassivation, and long container lifetimes will be achieved since the rate of general corrosion is extremely low. However, in the model presented, not only is it assumed that crevices will initiate rapidly on all containers, but also that the propagation of these crevices will continue indefinitely since conditions will remain sufficiently oxiding for repassivation to be avoided. The mathematical development of the model is described in detail. A simple ramped distribution is used to describe the failures due to the presence of initial defects. For crevice corrosion the propagation rates are assumed to be normally distributed and to be determined predominantly by temperature. The temperature dependence of the crevice propagation rate is determined from the calculated cooling profiles for the containers and an experimentally determined Arrhenius relationship for crevice propagation rates. The cooling profiles are approximated by double or single step functions, depending on the location of the container within the vault. The experimental data upon which this model is based is extensively reviewed. This review includes descriptions of the available data to describe and quantify the processes of general corrosion, crevice corrosion and hydrogen-induced cracking. For crevice corrosion and hydrogen-induced cracking the results of studies on both Grades-2 and -12 are presented. Also, the effects of impurities in the Grade-2 material are discussed. Special attention is

  17. Predicting Mineral N Release during Decomposition of Organic Wastes in Soil by Use of the SOILNNO Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sogn, T.A.; Haugen, L.E.

    2011-01-01

    In order to predict the mineral N release associated with the use of organic waste as fertilizer in agricultural plant production, the adequacy of the SOILN N O model has been evaluated. The original thought was that the model calibrated to data from simple incubation experiments could predict the mineral N release from organic waste products used as N fertilizer on agricultural land. First, the model was calibrated to mineral N data achieved in a laboratory experiment where different organic wastes were added to soil and incubated at 15 degree C for 8 weeks. Secondly, the calibrated model was tested by use of NO 3 -leaching data from soil columns with barley growing in 4 different soil types, added organic waste and exposed to natural climatic conditions during three growing seasons. The SOILN N O model reproduced relatively well the NO 3 -leaching from some of the soils included in the outdoor experiment, but failed to reproduce others. Use of the calibrated model often induced underestimation of the observed NO 3 -leaching. To achieve a satisfactory simulation of the NO 3 -leaching, recalibration of the model had to be carried out. Thus, SOILN N O calibrated to data from simple incubation experiments in the laboratory could not directly be used as a tool to predict the N-leaching following organic waste application in more natural agronomic plant production systems. The results emphasised the need for site- and system-specific data for model calibration before using a model for predictive purposes related to fertilizer N value of organic wastes applied to agricultural land.

  18. Co-digestion of solid waste: Towards a simple model to predict methane production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouas, Mokhles; Torrijos, Michel; Schmitz, Sabine; Sousbie, Philippe; Sayadi, Sami; Harmand, Jérôme

    2018-04-01

    Modeling methane production is a key issue for solid waste co-digestion. Here, the effect of a step-wise increase in the organic loading rate (OLR) on reactor performance was investigated, and four new models were evaluated to predict methane yields using data acquired in batch mode. Four co-digestion experiments of mixtures of 2 solid substrates were conducted in semi-continuous mode. Experimental methane yields were always higher than the BMP values of mixtures calculated from the BMP of each substrate, highlighting the importance of endogenous production (methane produced from auto-degradation of microbial community and generated solids). The experimental methane productions under increasing OLRs corresponded well to the modeled data using the model with constant endogenous production and kinetics identified at 80% from total batch time. This model provides a simple and useful tool for technical design consultancies and plant operators to optimize the co-digestion and the choice of the OLRs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluation Of The Integrated Solubility Model, A Graded Approach For Predicting Phase Distribution In Hanford Tank Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierson, Kayla L.; Belsher, Jeremy D.; Seniow, Kendra R.

    2012-01-01

    The mission of the DOE River Protection Project (RPP) is to store, retrieve, treat and dispose of Hanford's tank waste. Waste is retrieved from the underground tanks and delivered to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Waste is processed through a pretreatment facility where it is separated into low activity waste (LAW), which is primarily liquid, and high level waste (HLW), which is primarily solid. The LAW and HLW are sent to two different vitrification facilities and glass canisters are then disposed of onsite (for LAW) or shipped off-site (for HLW). The RPP mission is modeled by the Hanford Tank Waste Operations Simulator (HTWOS), a dynamic flowsheet simulator and mass balance model that is used for mission analysis and strategic planning. The integrated solubility model (ISM) was developed to improve the chemistry basis in HTWOS and better predict the outcome of the RPP mission. The ISM uses a graded approach to focus on the components that have the greatest impact to the mission while building the infrastructure for continued future improvement and expansion. Components in the ISM are grouped depending upon their relative solubility and impact to the RPP mission. The solubility of each group of components is characterized by sub-models of varying levels of complexity, ranging from simplified correlations to a set of Pitzer equations used for the minimization of Gibbs Energy

  20. Evaluation Of The Integrated Solubility Model, A Graded Approach For Predicting Phase Distribution In Hanford Tank Waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierson, Kayla L.; Belsher, Jeremy D.; Seniow, Kendra R.

    2012-10-19

    The mission of the DOE River Protection Project (RPP) is to store, retrieve, treat and dispose of Hanford's tank waste. Waste is retrieved from the underground tanks and delivered to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Waste is processed through a pretreatment facility where it is separated into low activity waste (LAW), which is primarily liquid, and high level waste (HLW), which is primarily solid. The LAW and HLW are sent to two different vitrification facilities and glass canisters are then disposed of onsite (for LAW) or shipped off-site (for HLW). The RPP mission is modeled by the Hanford Tank Waste Operations Simulator (HTWOS), a dynamic flowsheet simulator and mass balance model that is used for mission analysis and strategic planning. The integrated solubility model (ISM) was developed to improve the chemistry basis in HTWOS and better predict the outcome of the RPP mission. The ISM uses a graded approach to focus on the components that have the greatest impact to the mission while building the infrastructure for continued future improvement and expansion. Components in the ISM are grouped depending upon their relative solubility and impact to the RPP mission. The solubility of each group of components is characterized by sub-models of varying levels of complexity, ranging from simplified correlations to a set of Pitzer equations used for the minimization of Gibbs Energy.

  1. An analytical one-dimensional model for predicting waste package performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Relyea, J.F.; Wood, M.I.

    1984-01-01

    A method for allocating waste package performance requirements among waste package components with regard to radionuclide isolation has been developed. Modification or change in this approach can be expected as the understanding of radionuclide behavior in the waste package improves. Thus, the performance requirements derived in this document are preliminary and subject to change. However, this kind of analysis is a useful starting point. It has also proved useful for identifying a small group of radionuclides which should be emphasized in a laboratory experimental program designed to characterize the behavior of specific radionuclides in the waste package environment. A simple one-dimensional, two media transport model has been derived and used to calculate radionuclide transport from the waste form-packing material interface of the waste package into the host rock. Cumulative release over 10,000 years, maximum yearly releases and release rates at the packing material-host rock interface were evaluated on a radionuclide-by radionuclide basis. The major parameters controlling radionuclide release were found to be: radionuclide solubility, porosity of the rock, isotopic ratio of the radionuclide and surface area of the waste form-packing material interface. 15 refs., 2 figs., 16 tabs

  2. Multi-gene genetic programming based predictive models for municipal solid waste gasification in a fluidized bed gasifier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Daya Shankar; Pan, Indranil; Das, Saptarshi; Leahy, James J; Kwapinski, Witold

    2015-03-01

    A multi-gene genetic programming technique is proposed as a new method to predict syngas yield production and the lower heating value for municipal solid waste gasification in a fluidized bed gasifier. The study shows that the predicted outputs of the municipal solid waste gasification process are in good agreement with the experimental dataset and also generalise well to validation (untrained) data. Published experimental datasets are used for model training and validation purposes. The results show the effectiveness of the genetic programming technique for solving complex nonlinear regression problems. The multi-gene genetic programming are also compared with a single-gene genetic programming model to show the relative merits and demerits of the technique. This study demonstrates that the genetic programming based data-driven modelling strategy can be a good candidate for developing models for other types of fuels as well. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A fast linear predictive adaptive model of packed bed coupled with UASB reactor treating onion waste to produce biofuel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milquez-Sanabria, Harvey; Blanco-Cocom, Luis; Alzate-Gaviria, Liliana

    2016-10-03

    Agro-industrial wastes are an energy source for different industries. However, its application has not reached small industries. Previous and current research activities performed on the acidogenic phase of two-phase anaerobic digestion processes deal particularly with process optimization of the acid-phase reactors operating with a wide variety of substrates, both soluble and complex in nature. Mathematical models for anaerobic digestion have been developed to understand and improve the efficient operation of the process. At present, lineal models with the advantages of requiring less data, predicting future behavior and updating when a new set of data becomes available have been developed. The aim of this research was to contribute to the reduction of organic solid waste, generate biogas and develop a simple but accurate mathematical model to predict the behavior of the UASB reactor. The system was maintained separate for 14 days during which hydrolytic and acetogenic bacteria broke down onion waste, produced and accumulated volatile fatty acids. On this day, two reactors were coupled and the system continued for 16 days more. The biogas and methane yields and volatile solid reduction were 0.6 ± 0.05 m 3 (kg VS removed ) -1 , 0.43 ± 0.06 m 3 (kg VS removed ) -1 and 83.5 ± 9.8 %, respectively. The model application showed a good prediction of all process parameters defined; maximum error between experimental and predicted value was 1.84 % for alkalinity profile. A linear predictive adaptive model for anaerobic digestion of onion waste in a two-stage process was determined under batch-fed condition. Organic load rate (OLR) was maintained constant for the entire operation, modifying effluent hydrolysis reactor feed to UASB reactor. This condition avoids intoxication of UASB reactor and also limits external buffer addition.

  4. Development of a hybrid model to predict construction and demolition waste: China as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yiliao; Wang, Yong; Liu, Feng; Zhang, Yixin

    2017-01-01

    Construction and demolition waste (C&DW) is currently a worldwide issue, and the situation is the worst in China due to a rapid increase in the construction industry and the short life span of China's buildings. To create an opportunity out of this problem, comprehensive prevention measures and effective management strategies are urgently needed. One major gap in the literature of waste management is a lack of estimations on future C&DW generation. Therefore, this paper presents a forecasting procedure for C&DW in China that can forecast the quantity of each component in such waste. The proposed approach is based on a GM-SVR model that improves the forecasting effectiveness of the gray model (GM), which is achieved by adjusting the residual series by a support vector regression (SVR) method and a transition matrix that aims to estimate the discharge of each component in the C&DW. Through the proposed method, future C&DW volume are listed and analyzed containing their potential components and distribution in different provinces in China. Besides, model testing process provides mathematical evidence to validate the proposed model is an effective way to give future information of C&DW for policy makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Progress toward bridging from atomistic to continuum modeling to predict nuclear waste glass dissolution.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zapol, Peter (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Bourg, Ian (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories, Berkeley, CA); Criscenti, Louise Jacqueline; Steefel, Carl I. (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories, Berkeley, CA); Schultz, Peter Andrew

    2011-10-01

    This report summarizes research performed for the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Subcontinuum and Upscaling Task. The work conducted focused on developing a roadmap to include molecular scale, mechanistic information in continuum-scale models of nuclear waste glass dissolution. This information is derived from molecular-scale modeling efforts that are validated through comparison with experimental data. In addition to developing a master plan to incorporate a subcontinuum mechanistic understanding of glass dissolution into continuum models, methods were developed to generate constitutive dissolution rate expressions from quantum calculations, force field models were selected to generate multicomponent glass structures and gel layers, classical molecular modeling was used to study diffusion through nanopores analogous to those in the interfacial gel layer, and a micro-continuum model (K{mu}C) was developed to study coupled diffusion and reaction at the glass-gel-solution interface.

  6. Prediction of the working parameters of a wood waste gasifier through an equilibrium model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altafini, Carlos R.; Baretto, Ronaldo M. [Caxias do Sul Univ., Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Caxias do Sul, RS (Brazil); Wander, Paulo R. [Caxias do Sul Univ., Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Caxias do Sul, RS (Brazil); Federal Univ. of Rio Grande do Sul State (UFRGS), Mechanical Engineering Postgraduation Program (PROMEC), RS (Brazil)

    2003-10-01

    This paper deals with the computational simulation of a wood waste (sawdust) gasifier using an equilibrium model based on minimization of the Gibbs free energy. The gasifier has been tested with Pinus Elliotis sawdust, an exotic specie largely cultivated in the South of Brazil. The biomass used in the tests presented a moisture of nearly 10% (wt% on wet basis), and the average composition results of the gas produced (without tar) are compared with the equilibrium models used. Sensitivity studies to verify the influence of the moisture sawdust content on the fuel gas composition and on its heating value were made. More complex models to reproduce with better accuracy the gasifier studied were elaborated. Although the equilibrium models do not represent the reactions that occur at relatively high temperatures ( {approx_equal} 800 deg C) very well, these models can be useful to show some tendencies on the working parameter variations of a gasifier. (Author)

  7. Predicting transportation routes for radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joy, D.S.; Johnson, P.E.; Clarke, D.B.; McGuire, S.C.

    1981-01-01

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been involved in transportation logistics of radioactive wastes as part of the overall waste transportation program. A Spent Fuel Logistics Model (SFLM), was developed to predict overall material balances representing the flow of spent fuel assemblies from reactors to away-from-reactor storage facilities and/or to federal repositories. The transportation requirements to make these shipments are also itemized. The next logical step in the overall transportation project was the development of a set of computer codes which would predict likely transportation routes for waste shipments. Two separate routing models are now operational at ORNL. Routes for truck transport can be estimated with the HIGHWAY program, and rail and barge routes can be predicted with the INTERLINE model. This paper discusses examples of the route estimates and applications of the routing models

  8. Prediction of stress-strain state of municipal solid waste with application of soft soil creep model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ofrikhter Vadim Grigor'evich

    Full Text Available The deformation of municipal solid waste is a complex process caused by the nature of MSW, the properties of which differ from the properties of common soils. The mass of municipal solid waste shows the mixed behaviour partially similar to granular soils, and partially - to cohesive. So, one of mechanical characteristics of MSW is the cohesion typical to cohesive soils, but at the same time the filtration coefficient of MSW has an order of 1 m/day that is characteristic for granular soils. It has been established that MSW massif can be simulated like the soil reinforced by randomly oriented fibers. Today a significant amount of the verified and well proved software products are available for numerical modelling of soils. The majority of them use finite element method (FEM. The soft soil creep model (SSC-model seems to be the most suitable for modelling of municipal solid waste, as it allows estimating the development of settlements in time with separation of primary and secondary consolidation. Unlike the soft soil, one of the factors of secondary consolidation of MSW is biological degradation, the influence of which is possible to consider at the definition of the modified parameters essential for soft soil model. Application of soft soil creep model allows carrying out the calculation of stress-strain state of waste from the beginning of landfill filling up to any moment of time both during the period of operation and in postclosure period. The comparative calculation presented in the paper is executed in Plaxis software using the soft-soil creep model in contrast to the calculation using the composite model of MSW. All the characteristics for SSC-model were derived from the composite model. The comparative results demonstrate the advantage of SSC-model for prediction of the development of MSW stress-strain state. As far as after the completion of the biodegradation processes MSW behaviour is similar to cohesion-like soils, the demonstrated

  9. Prediction of waste glass melt rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, L.

    1987-01-01

    Under contract to the Department of Energy, the Du Pont Company has begun construction of a Defense Waste Processing Facility to immobilize radioactive wastes now stored as liquids at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Plant. The immobilization process solidifies waste sludge by vitrification into a leach-resistant borosilicate glass. Development of this process has been the responsibility of the Savannah River Laboratory. As part of the development, a simple model was developed to predict the melt rates for the waste glass melter. This model is based on an energy balance for the cold cap and gives very good agreement with melt rate data obtained from experimental campaigns in smaller scale waste glass melters

  10. Predictive geochemical modeling of contaminant concentrations in laboratory columns and in plumes migrating from uranium mill tailings waste impoundments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, S.R.; Martin, W.J.; Serne, R.J.

    1986-04-01

    A computer-based conceptual chemical model was applied to predict contaminant concentrations in plumes migrating from a uranium mill tailings waste impoundment. The solids chosen for inclusion in the conceptual model were selected based on reviews of the literature, on ion speciation/solubility calculations performed on the column effluent solutions and on mineralogical characterization of the contacted and uncontacted sediments. The mechanism of adsorption included in the conceptual chemical model was chosen based on results from semiselective extraction experiments and from mineralogical characterization procedures performed on the sediments. This conceptual chemical model was further developed and partially validated in laboratory experiments where assorted acidic uranium mill tailings solutions percolated through various sediments. This document contains the results of a partial field and laboratory validation (i.e., test of coherence) of this chemical model. Macro constituents (e.g., Ca, SO 4 , Al, Fe, and Mn) of the tailings solution were predicted closely by considering their concentrations to be controlled by the precipitation/dissolution of solid phases. Trace elements, however, were generally predicted to be undersaturated with respect to plausible solid phase controls. The concentration of several of the trace elements were closely predicted by considering their concentrations to be controlled by adsorption onto the amorphous iron oxyhydroxides that precipitated

  11. New mechanistically based model for predicting reduction of biosolids waste by ozonation of return activated sludge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isazadeh, Siavash; Feng, Min; Urbina Rivas, Luis Enrique; Frigon, Dominic

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Biomass inactivation followed an exponential decay with increasing ozone doses. • From pure cultures, inactivation did not result in significant COD solubilization. • Ozone dose inactivation thresholds resulted from floc structure modifications. • Modeling description of biomass inactivation during RAS-ozonation was improved. • Model best describing inactivation resulted in best performance predictions. - Abstract: Two pilot-scale activated sludge reactors were operated for 98 days to provide the necessary data to develop and validate a new mathematical model predicting the reduction of biosolids production by ozonation of the return activated sludge (RAS). Three ozone doses were tested during the study. In addition to the pilot-scale study, laboratory-scale experiments were conducted with mixed liquor suspended solids and with pure cultures to parameterize the biomass inactivation process during exposure to ozone. The experiments revealed that biomass inactivation occurred even at the lowest doses, but that it was not associated with extensive COD solubilization. For validation, the model was used to simulate the temporal dynamics of the pilot-scale operational data. Increasing the description accuracy of the inactivation process improved the precision of the model in predicting the operational data

  12. New mechanistically based model for predicting reduction of biosolids waste by ozonation of return activated sludge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isazadeh, Siavash; Feng, Min; Urbina Rivas, Luis Enrique; Frigon, Dominic, E-mail: dominic.frigon@mcgill.ca

    2014-04-01

    Highlights: • Biomass inactivation followed an exponential decay with increasing ozone doses. • From pure cultures, inactivation did not result in significant COD solubilization. • Ozone dose inactivation thresholds resulted from floc structure modifications. • Modeling description of biomass inactivation during RAS-ozonation was improved. • Model best describing inactivation resulted in best performance predictions. - Abstract: Two pilot-scale activated sludge reactors were operated for 98 days to provide the necessary data to develop and validate a new mathematical model predicting the reduction of biosolids production by ozonation of the return activated sludge (RAS). Three ozone doses were tested during the study. In addition to the pilot-scale study, laboratory-scale experiments were conducted with mixed liquor suspended solids and with pure cultures to parameterize the biomass inactivation process during exposure to ozone. The experiments revealed that biomass inactivation occurred even at the lowest doses, but that it was not associated with extensive COD solubilization. For validation, the model was used to simulate the temporal dynamics of the pilot-scale operational data. Increasing the description accuracy of the inactivation process improved the precision of the model in predicting the operational data.

  13. New mechanistically based model for predicting reduction of biosolids waste by ozonation of return activated sludge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isazadeh, Siavash; Feng, Min; Urbina Rivas, Luis Enrique; Frigon, Dominic

    2014-04-15

    Two pilot-scale activated sludge reactors were operated for 98 days to provide the necessary data to develop and validate a new mathematical model predicting the reduction of biosolids production by ozonation of the return activated sludge (RAS). Three ozone doses were tested during the study. In addition to the pilot-scale study, laboratory-scale experiments were conducted with mixed liquor suspended solids and with pure cultures to parameterize the biomass inactivation process during exposure to ozone. The experiments revealed that biomass inactivation occurred even at the lowest doses, but that it was not associated with extensive COD solubilization. For validation, the model was used to simulate the temporal dynamics of the pilot-scale operational data. Increasing the description accuracy of the inactivation process improved the precision of the model in predicting the operational data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A conceptual frame for the development of models for the prediction of the local effects of a high level waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacios, Elias; Ferreri, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    Safety analyses assocciated with the elimination of radioactive wastes in rock masses assume, in all cases, the existance of wastes which will corrode the waste canisters producing the liberation of radionuclides in the rocky and their ultimate migration towards the biosphere. A conceptual discussion is presented which allows the specification to be met by the models for the prediction of the effects of the emplacement of a high level waste repository located at a depth of 500 m in a granitic rock. Furthermore, the radionuclides giving the largest contribution to the radiological impact are identified. (Author) [es

  15. Predicting the Lifetimes of Nuclear Waste Containers

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Fraser

    2014-03-01

    As for many aspects of the disposal of nuclear waste, the greatest challenge we have in the study of container materials is the prediction of the long-term performance over periods of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Various methods have been used for predicting the lifetime of containers for the disposal of high-level waste or spent fuel in deep geological repositories. Both mechanical and corrosion-related failure mechanisms need to be considered, although until recently the interactions of mechanical and corrosion degradation modes have not been considered in detail. Failure from mechanical degradation modes has tended to be treated through suitable container design. In comparison, the inevitable loss of container integrity due to corrosion has been treated by developing specific corrosion models. The most important aspect, however, is to be able to justify the long-term predictions by demonstrating a mechanistic understanding of the various degradation modes.

  16. Predictions and implications of a poisson process model to describe corrosion of transuranic waste drums

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyon, B.F.; Holmes, J.A.; Wilbert, K.A.

    1995-01-01

    A risk assessment methodology is described in this paper to compare risks associated with immediate or near-term retrieval of transuranic (TRU) waste drums from bermed storage versus delayed retrieval. Assuming a Poisson process adequately describes corrosion, significant breaching of drums is expected to begin at - 15 and 24 yr for pitting and general corrosion, respectively. Because of this breaching, more risk will be incurred by delayed than by immediate retrieval

  17. Models and criteria for waste repository performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.F.; Cohen, J.J.

    1981-03-01

    A primary objective of the Waste Management Program is to assure that public health is protected. Predictive modeling, to some extent, will play a role in assuring that this objective is met. This paper considers the requirements and limitations of predictive modeling in providing useful inputs to waste management decision making. Criteria development needs and the relation between criteria and models are also discussed

  18. Validation of predictive models for geologic disposal of radioactive waste via natural analogs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, J.J.; Smith, C.F.

    1981-03-01

    The incorporation of toxic or hazardous material in the earth's crust is a phenomenon not unique to radioactive waste burial. Useful insights on the environmental transport and effects of underground toxic or radioactive material can be derived from comparative analysis against natural (mineral) analogs. This paper includes a discussion of the background and rationale for the analog approach, a descripton of several variations of the approach, and some sample applications to illustrate the concept, focusing on Radium-226 and Iodine-129 as specific case studies

  19. Prediction of pressure of bentonite buffer in model test of disposal pit for high-level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komine, Hideo; Osada, Toru; Takao, Hajime; Ueda, Hiroyoshi

    2013-01-01

    Bentonite-based buffer materials for high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal are expected to fill up the space between buffer and a wall of the disposal pit, and/or between buffer and an waste-container called as overpack by its swelling deformation. That is called as self-sealing ability. This study performs the model tests simulated the relationship between buffer and space mentioned above. It also investigates the validity of the theoretical equations for evaluating the swelling characteristics of bentonite-based buffer and backfill material, which were proposed in Komine and Ogata (2003, 2004), by comparing the calculations and the experimental results. (author)

  20. Construction of predictive models for radionuclide sorption applied to radioactive waste deep storage: an overview of the CEA research program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christophe Poinssot; Etienne Tevissen; Jacques Ly; Michael Descostes; Virginie Blin; Catherine Beaucaire; Florence Goutelard; Christelle Latrille; Philippe Jacquier

    2006-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Deep geological storage is studied in France as one of the three potential options for managing long lived nuclear waste in the framework of the 1991 Law. One of the key topics of research deals with the behaviour of radionuclides (RN) in the geological environment, focusing in particular on the retention at the solid/water interfaces (in the engineered barriers or within the host rock), the diffusion process within the rock as well as the coupling between chemistry and transport processes. The final aim is to develop validated and reliable long-term predictive migration models. These researches are mainly coping with Callovo-Oxfordian argilites and near field materials such as cement and bentonite. Research are dealing both with the near-field environment - which is characterised by its evolution with time in terms of temperature, Eh balance, water composition - and the far-field environment, the chemistry of which is assumed to be roughly constant. Modelling the global RN migration in geological disposal requires having models which are intrinsically able to account for the evolution of the physical and chemical conditions of the environment. From the standpoint of performance assessment it is then necessary to acquire thermodynamic descriptions of the retention processes in order to perform calculations of the reactive transport of radionuclides In a first approach, CEA is developing for more than 15 years experiments and modelling to derive reliable predictive models for the RN migration in the geological disposal. For this purpose, a specific approach entitled the Ion-Exchangers Theory IXT was developed. It allows first to characterise the intrinsic retention properties of the pure minerals, i.e. to get evidence about the mono or multi-site character of the surface, to quantify the site(s) concentration(s) and to study the relative affinity of major solutes generally present in natural waters. This work provided a broad data

  1. Long-term behaviour of concrete: development of operational model to predict the evolution of its containment performance. Application to cemented waste packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peycelon, H.; Le Bescop, P.; Richet, C.; Adenot, F.

    2001-01-01

    In order to describe the main phenomena during different stages of cement waste packages life-time and to predict the long-term behaviour (containment performance) of concrete, coupled experiments and modelling studies are achieved. With respect to logical methodology, improvement of these studies is accomplished. Degradation of concrete in low mineralized, carbonated and sulfated water lead to an evolution of chemical characteristics (dissolution/precipitation of solid phases) and of transport properties which must be included or coupled in retention/transport modelling of radio nuclides to predict containment performance. (author)

  2. A modelling study for long-term life prediction of carbon steel overpack for geological isolation of High-Level Radioactive Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, Naoki; Honda, Akira; Ishikawa, Hirohisa

    1996-01-01

    Current plans for the geological disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) in Japan include metal overpacks which contain HLW. Overpacks may be required to remain intact for more than several hundred years in order to provide containment of radio nuclides. The main factor limiting the performance of overpacks is considered to be corrosion by groundwater. Carbon steel is one of the candidate material for overpacks. A mathematical model for life prediction of carbon steel overpack has been developed based on corrosion mechanism. General corrosion and localized corrosion are considered because these are likely to initiate in repository conditions. In general corrosion model, the reduction of oxygen and water are considered as cathodic reaction. In localized corrosion model, we have constructed a model which predict the period for localized corrosion based on oxygen transport in bentonite. We also developed a model which predict the propagation rate of localized corrosion that is based on mass balance within the corroding cavity. (author)

  3. Radionuclide migration in groundwater at a low-level waste disposal site: a comparison of predictive performance modeling versus field observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, D.E.; Myers, D.A.; Bergeron, M.P.; Champ, D.R.; Killey, R.W.D.; Moltyaner, G.L.; Young, J.L.

    1985-08-01

    This paper describes a project which is structured to test the concept of modeling a shallow land low-level waste burial site. The project involves a comparison of the actual observed radionuclide migration in groundwaters at a 30-year-old well-monitored field site with the results of predictive transport modeling. The comparison is being conducted as a cooperative program with the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL) at the low-level waste management area at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories, Ontario, Canada. A joint PNL-AECL field inviestigation was conducted in 1983 and 1984 to complement the existing extensive data base on actual radionuclide migration. Predictive transport modeling is currently being conducted for this site; first, as if it were a new location being considered for a low-level waste shallow-land burial site and only minimal information about the site were available, and second, utilizing the extensive data base available for the site. The modeling results will then be compared with the empirical observations to provide insight into the level of effort needed to reasonably predict the spacial and temporal movement of radionuclides in the groundwater enviroment. 8 refs., 5 figs.,

  4. Radionuclide migration in groundwater at a low-level waste disposal site: a comparison of predictive performance modeling versus field observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, D.E.; Myers, D.A.; Abel, K.H.; Bergeron, M.P.; Champ, D.R.; Killey, R.W.D.; Moltyaner, G.L.; Young, J.L.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes a project which is structured to test the concept of modeling a shallow land low-level waste burial site. The project involves a comparison of the actual observed radionuclide migration in groundwaters at a 30-year old well-monitored field site with the results of predictive transport modeling. The comparison is being conducted as a cooperative program with the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL) at the low-level waste management area at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories, Ontario, Canada. A joint PNL-AECL field investigation was conducted in 1983 and 1984 to compliment the existing extensive data base on actual radionuclide migration. Predictive transport modeling is currently being conducted for this site; first, as if it were a new location being considered for a low-level waste shallow-land burial site and only minimal information about the site were available, and second, utilizing the extensive data base available for the site. The modeling results will then be compared with the level of effort needed to reasonably predict the spacial and temporal movement of radionuclides in the groundwater environment

  5. Halomonas desiderata as a bacterial model to predict the possible biological nitrate reduction in concrete cells of nuclear waste disposals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alquier, Marjorie; Kassim, Caroline; Bertron, Alexandra; Sablayrolles, Caroline; Rafrafi, Yan; Albrecht, Achim; Erable, Benjamin

    2014-01-01

    After closure of a waste disposal cell in a repository for radioactive waste, resaturation is likely to cause the release of soluble species contained in cement and bituminous matrices, such as ionic species (nitrates, sulfates, calcium and alkaline ions, etc.), organic matter (mainly organic acids), or gases (from steel containers and reinforced concrete structures as well as from radiolysis within the waste packages). However, in the presence of nitrates in the near-field of waste, the waste cell can initiate oxidative conditions leading to enhanced mobility of redox-sensitive radionuclides (RN). In biotic conditions and in the presence of organic matter and/or hydrogen as electron donors, nitrates may be microbiologically reduced, allowing a return to reducing conditions that promote the safety of storage. Our work aims to analyze the possible microbial reactivity of nitrates at the bitumen - concrete interface in conditions as close as possible to radioactive waste storage conditions in order (i) to evaluate the nitrate reaction kinetics; (ii) to identify the by-products (NO2(-), NH4(+), N2, N2O, etc.); and (iii) to discriminate between the roles of planktonic bacteria and those adhering as a biofilm structure in the denitrifying activity. Leaching experiments on solid matrices (bitumen and cement pastes) were first implemented to define the physicochemical conditions that microorganisms are likely to meet at the bitumen-concrete interface, e.g. highly alkaline pH conditions (10 < pH < 11) imposed by the cement matrix. The screening of a range of anaerobic denitrifying bacterial strains led us to select Halomonas desiderata as a model bacterium capable of catalyzing the reaction of nitrate reduction in these particular conditions of pH. The denitrifying activity of H. desiderata was quantified in a batch bioreactor in the presence of solid matrices and/or leachate from bitumen and cement matrices. Denitrification was relatively fast in the presence of cement

  6. Predictive modeling of hazardous waste landfill total above-ground biomass using passive optical and LIDAR remotely sensed data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadley, Brian Christopher

    This dissertation assessed remotely sensed data and geospatial modeling technique(s) to map the spatial distribution of total above-ground biomass present on the surface of the Savannah River National Laboratory's (SRNL) Mixed Waste Management Facility (MWMF) hazardous waste landfill. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, regression kriging, and tree-structured regression were employed to model the empirical relationship between in-situ measured Bahia (Paspalum notatum Flugge) and Centipede [Eremochloa ophiuroides (Munro) Hack.] grass biomass against an assortment of explanatory variables extracted from fine spatial resolution passive optical and LIDAR remotely sensed data. Explanatory variables included: (1) discrete channels of visible, near-infrared (NIR), and short-wave infrared (SWIR) reflectance, (2) spectral vegetation indices (SVI), (3) spectral mixture analysis (SMA) modeled fractions, (4) narrow-band derivative-based vegetation indices, and (5) LIDAR derived topographic variables (i.e. elevation, slope, and aspect). Results showed that a linear combination of the first- (1DZ_DGVI), second- (2DZ_DGVI), and third-derivative of green vegetation indices (3DZ_DGVI) calculated from hyperspectral data recorded over the 400--960 nm wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum explained the largest percentage of statistical variation (R2 = 0.5184) in the total above-ground biomass measurements. In general, the topographic variables did not correlate well with the MWMF biomass data, accounting for less than five percent of the statistical variation. It was concluded that tree-structured regression represented the optimum geospatial modeling technique due to a combination of model performance and efficiency/flexibility factors.

  7. Predicting the co-melting temperatures of municipal solid waste incinerator fly ash and sewage sludge ash using grey model and neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pai, Tzu-Yi; Lin, Kae-Long; Shie, Je-Lung; Chang, Tien-Chin; Chen, Bor-Yann

    2011-03-01

    A grey model (GM) and an artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to predict co-melting temperature of municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) fly ash and sewage sludge ash (SSA) during formation of modified slag. The results indicated that in the aspect of model prediction, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPEs) were between 1.69 and 13.20% when adopting seven different GM (1, N) models. The MAPE were 1.59 and 1.31% when GM (1, 1) and rolling grey model (RGM (1, 1)) were adopted. The MAPEs fell within the range of 0.04 and 0.50% using different types of ANN. In GMs, the MAPE of 1.31% was found to be the lowest when using RGM (1, 1) to predict co-melting temperature. This value was higher than those of ANN2-1 to ANN8-1 by 1.27, 1.25, 1.24, 1.18, 1.16, 1.14 and 0.81%, respectively. GM only required a small amount of data (at least four data). Therefore, GM could be applied successfully in predicting the co-melting temperature of MSWI fly ash and SSA when no sufficient information is available. It also indicates that both the composition of MSWI fly ash and SSA could be applied on the prediction of co-melting temperature.

  8. Approach to first principles model prediction of measured WIPP [Waste Isolation Pilot Plant] in situ room closure in salt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munson, D.E.; Fossum, A.F.; Senseny, P.E.

    1989-01-01

    The discrepancies between predicted and measured WIPP in situ Room D closures are markedly reduced through the use of a Tresca flow potential, an improved small strain constitutive model, an improved set of material parameters, and a modified stratigraphy. 17 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  9. Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction: Prediction of Cesium Extraction from Actual Wastes and Actual Waste Simulants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delmau, L.H.; Haverlock, T.J.; Sloop, F.V. Jr.; Moyer, B.A.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents the work that followed the CSSX model development completed in FY2002. The developed cesium and potassium extraction model was based on extraction data obtained from simple aqueous media. It was tested to ensure the validity of the prediction for the cesium extraction from actual waste. Compositions of the actual tank waste were obtained from the Savannah River Site personnel and were used to prepare defined simulants and to predict cesium distribution ratios using the model. It was therefore possible to compare the cesium distribution ratios obtained from the actual waste, the simulant, and the predicted values. It was determined that the predicted values agree with the measured values for the simulants. Predicted values also agreed, with three exceptions, with measured values for the tank wastes. Discrepancies were attributed in part to the uncertainty in the cation/anion balance in the actual waste composition, but likely more so to the uncertainty in the potassium concentration in the waste, given the demonstrated large competing effect of this metal on cesium extraction. It was demonstrated that the upper limit for the potassium concentration in the feed ought to not exceed 0.05 M in order to maintain suitable cesium distribution ratios

  10. Development of a general model to predict the rate of radionuclide release (source term) from a low-level waste shallow land burial facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.M.; Kempf, C.R.; Suen, C.J.; Mughabghab, S.M.

    1988-01-01

    Federal Code of Regulations 10 CFR 61 requires that any near surface disposal site be capable of being characterized, analyzed, and modeled. The objective of this program is to assist NRC in developing the ability to model a disposal site that conforms to these regulations. In particular, a general computer model capable of predicting the quantity and rate of radionuclide release from a shallow land burial trench, i.e., the source term, is being developed. The framework for this general model has been developed and consists of four basic compartments that represent the major processes that influence release. These compartments are: water flow, container degradation, release from the waste packages, and radionuclide transport. Models for water flow and radionuclide transport rely on the use of the computer codes FEMWATER and FEMWASTE. These codes are generally regarded as being state-of-the-art and required little modification for their application to this project. Models for container degradation and release from waste packages have been specifically developed for this project. This paper provides a brief description of the models being used in the source term project and examples of their use over a range of potential conditions. 13 refs

  11. Waste Feed Evaporation Physical Properties Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniel, W.E.

    2003-01-01

    This document describes the waste feed evaporator modeling work done in the Waste Feed Evaporation and Physical Properties Modeling test specification and in support of the Hanford River Protection Project (RPP) Waste Treatment Plant (WTP) project. A private database (ZEOLITE) was developed and used in this work in order to include the behavior of aluminosilicates such a NAS-gel in the OLI/ESP simulations, in addition to the development of the mathematical models. Mathematical models were developed that describe certain physical properties in the Hanford RPP-WTP waste feed evaporator process (FEP). In particular, models were developed for the feed stream to the first ultra-filtration step characterizing its heat capacity, thermal conductivity, and viscosity, as well as the density of the evaporator contents. The scope of the task was expanded to include the volume reduction factor across the waste feed evaporator (total evaporator feed volume/evaporator bottoms volume). All the physical properties were modeled as functions of the waste feed composition, temperature, and the high level waste recycle volumetric flow rate relative to that of the waste feed. The goal for the mathematical models was to predict the physical property to predicted simulation value. The simulation model approximating the FEP process used to develop the correlations was relatively complex, and not possible to duplicate within the scope of the bench scale evaporation experiments. Therefore, simulants were made of 13 design points (a subset of the points used in the model fits) using the compositions of the ultra-filtration feed streams as predicted by the simulation model. The chemistry and physical properties of the supernate (the modeled stream) as predicted by the simulation were compared with the analytical results of experimental simulant work as a method of validating the simulation software

  12. LIMCAL: a comprehensive food chain model for predicting radiation exposure to man in long-term nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1982-08-01

    A food chain model, LIMCAL, has been designed to aid in the assessment of the effects of long-term nuclear waste management on man far into the future. LIMCAL is particularly suited to the evaluation of an underground vault. Energy budgets, a basic feature of food chains, have been introduced in LIMCAL to help overcome uncertainties imposed by long time spans. LIMCAL includes all the ingestion pathways leading to man, which comprise terrestrial, fresh-water and saltwater food types and man's and animals' drinking water. The terrestrial pathways include both root uptake and leaf deposition. The basic input terms for LIMCAL are annual average radionuclide concentrations in soil, fresh water and saltwater. Annual average air concentrations can be calculated from soil concentrations by using the resuspension factor or the mass-loading approach. Many of the equations in LIMCAL are similar to those in FOOD II and NEPTUN, existing food chain models for contemporary assessments. The basic output of LIMCAL consists of radionculide concentrations in various food types and drinking water, and the resulting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents for infant and adult man. Dose/ concentration ratios can also be calculated readily by LIMCAL. LIMCAL is best described as a deterministic generic quasi-equilibrium assessment model of the linear-chain type. The parameters of LIMCAL have been reviewed in detail in a separate document

  13. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  14. Prediction of concentration and model validation - key issues in assessment of long term safety for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, S.; Dverstorp, B.; Woerman, A.

    2008-01-01

    Post-closure safety assessments for nuclear waste repositories involve radioecological modelling for en,underground source term. In this paper we discuss critical aspects concerning process understanding and justification of simplified radioecological models used for such safety assessments. This study is part of the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority's (SSI) work on reviewing the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co's (SKB) most recent safety assessment, SR-Can. One of the most challenging tasks in assessments of environmental doses and risk from an underground repository is to estimate radionuclide activity concentrations in various geologic strata in the future. For example, little is known about transport pathways through the quaternary deposits to the discharge points in surface waters and other recipients in the biosphere. Traditionally simplified compartmental models are used in safety assessment to describe the fate of radio-nuclides in surface environment. The possibility to test such models against more detailed process models and site specific data is of key importance for confidence in the safety assessment. As part of SSI's review of SR-Can, alternative modelling approaches were developed to explore the importance of transport process descriptions in the assessment models. The modelling results were compared with the Landscape Dose Factors (LDFs) derived by SKB in SR-Can. LDFs is a new methodology adapted by SKB in SR-Can. The LDFs are defined in the units of Sv/y per Bq/y and express all the radiological information about individual epository sites and ecosystems as a single, radionuclide-specific, number that relates geosphere releases to radiological dose. Further, we suggest a method for validating model parameters using data from field tracer tests. In two companion papers we present the underlying model framework for pathway analyses and a newly developed numerical module within the numerical software Ecolego Toolbox. Transport models

  15. Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1985-08-01

    Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  16. Preliminary ECLSS waste water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Donald L.; Holder, Donald W., Jr.; Alexander, Kevin; Shaw, R. G.; Hayase, John K.

    1991-01-01

    A preliminary waste water model for input to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) Water Processor (WP) has been generated for design purposes. Data have been compiled from various ECLSS tests and flight sample analyses. A discussion of the characterization of the waste streams comprising the model is presented, along with a discussion of the waste water model and the rationale for the inclusion of contaminants in their respective concentrations. The major objective is to establish a methodology for the development of a waste water model and to present the current state of that model.

  17. Predicting liquid immiscibility in multicomponent nuclear waste glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peeler, D.K.; Hrma, P.R.

    1994-01-01

    Taylor's model for predicting amorphous phase separation in complex, multicomponent systems has been applied to high-level (simulated) radioactive waste glasses at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site. Taylor's model is primarily based on additions of modifying cations to a Na 2 O-B 2 O 3 -SiO 2 (NBS) submixture of the multicomponent glass. The position of the submixture relative to the immiscibility dome defines the development probability of amorphous phase separation. Although prediction of amorphous phase separation in Hanford glasses (via experimental SEM/TEM analysis) is the primary thrust of this work; reported durability data is also provides limited insight into the composition/durability relationship. Using a modified model similar to Taylor's, the results indicate that immiscibility may be predicted for multicomponent waste glasses by the addition of Li 2 O to the open-quotes alkaliclose quotes corner of the NBS submixture

  18. Predicting liquid immiscibility in multicomponent nuclear waste glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peeler, D.K.; Hrma, P.R.

    1994-04-01

    Taylor's model for predicting amorphous phase separation in complex, multicomponent systems has been applied to high-level (simulated) radioactive waste glasses at the US Department of Energy's Hanford site. Taylor's model is primarily based on additions of modifying cations to a Na 2 O-B 2 O 3 -SiO 2 (NBS) submixture of the multicomponent glass. The position of the submixture relative to the miscibility dome defines the development probability of amorphous phase separation. Although prediction of amorphous phase separation in Hanford glasses (via experimental SEM/TEM analysis) is the primary thrust of this work; reported durability data is also provides limited insight into the composition/durability relationship. Using a modified model similar to Taylor's, the results indicate that immiscibility may be predicted for multicomponent waste glasses by the addition of Li 2 O to the ''alkali'' corner of the NBS submixture

  19. Radionuclide migration in ground water at a low-level waste disposal site: a comparison of predicted radionuclide transport modeling versus field observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergeron, M.P.; Robertson, D.E.; Champ, D.R.; Killey, R.W.D.; Moltyaner, G.L.

    1987-01-01

    At the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories (CRNL), in Ontario, Canada, a number of LLW shallow-land burial facilities have existed for 25-30 years. These facilities are useful for testing the concept of site modelability. In 1984, CRNL and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) established a cooperative research program to examine two disposal sites having plumes of slightly contaminated ground water for study. This report addresses the LLW Nitrate Disposal Pit site, which received liquid wastes containing approximately 1000-1500 curies of mixed fission products during 1953-54. The objective of this study is to test the regulatory requirement that a site be modeled and to use the Nitrate Disposal Pit site as a field site for testing the reliability of models in predicting radionuclide movement in ground water. The study plan was to approach this site as though it were to be licensed under the requirements of 10 CFR 61. Under the assumption that little was known about this site, a characterization plan was prepared describing the geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical information needed to assess site performance. After completion of the plan, site data generated by CRNL were selected to fill the plan data requirements. This paper describes the site hydrogeology, modeling of ground water flow, the comparison of observed and predicted radionuclide movement, and summarizes the conclusions and recommendations. 3 references, 10 figures

  20. Chemical modeling of waste sludges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, C.F.; Beahm, E.C.

    1996-10-01

    The processing of waste from underground storage tanks at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and other facilities will require an understanding of the chemical interactions of the waste with process chemicals. Two aspects of sludge treatment should be well delineated and predictable: (1) the distribution of chemical species between aqueous solutions and solids, and (2) potential problems due to chemical interactions that could result in process difficulties or safety concerns. It is likely that the treatment of waste tank sludge will begin with washing, followed by basic or acidic leaching. The dissolved materials will be in a solution that has a high ionic strength where activity coefficients are far from unity. Activity coefficients are needed in order to calculate solubilities. Several techniques are available for calculating these values, and each technique has its advantages and disadvantages. The techniques adopted and described here is the Pitzer method. Like any of the methods, prudent use of this approach requires that it be applied within concentration ranges where the experimental data were fit, and its use in large systems should be preceded by evaluating subsystems. While much attention must be given to the development of activity coefficients, other factors such as coprecipitation of species and Ostwald ripening must also be considered when one aims to interpret results of sludge tests or to predict results of treatment strategies. An understanding of sludge treatment processes begins with the sludge tests themselves and proceeds to a general interpretation with the aid of modeling. One could stop with only data from the sludge tests, in which case the table of data would become an implicit model. However, this would be a perilous approach in situations where processing difficulties could be costly or result in concerns for the environment or health and safety

  1. Modelling gas generation in radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agg, P.J.

    1993-02-01

    In a repository containing low- and intermediate-level waste, gas generation will occur principally by the coupled processes of metal corrosion and microbial degradation of cellulosic waste. This Paper describes a mathematical model design to address gas generation by these mechanisms. The metal corrosion model incorporates a three-stage process encompassing both aerobic and anaerobic corrosion regimes; the microbial degradation model simulates the activities of eight different microbial populations, which are maintained as functions both of pH and of the concentrations of particular chemical species. Gas concentrations have been measured over a period of three years in large-scale drum experiments designed to simulate repository conditions. Model predictions are confirmed against the experimental measurements, and a prediction is then made of gas concentrations and generation rates over an assessment period of one million years in a radioactive waste repository. (author)

  2. Modelling gas generation in radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agg, P.J.

    1992-07-01

    In a repository containing low- and intermediate-level waste, gas generation will occur principally by the coupled processes of metal corrosion and microbial degradation of cellulosic waste. This paper describes a mathematical model designed to address gas generation by these mechanisms. The metal corrosion model incorporates a three-stage process encompassing both aerobic and anaerobic corrosion regimes; the microbial degradation model simulates the activities of eight different microbial populations, which are maintained as functions both of pH and of the concentrations of particular chemical species. Gas concentrations have been measured over a period of three years in large-scale drum experiments designed to simulate repository conditions. Model predictions are confirmed against the experimental measurements, and a prediction is then made of gas concentrations and generation rates over an assessment period of one million years in a radioactive waste repository. (Author)

  3. Model for future waste generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundqvist, Jan-Olov; Stenmarck, Aasa; Ekvall, Tomas

    2010-06-15

    The research presented in this report is part of the effort to estimate future Swedish waste quantities in the research programme Towards Sustainable Waste Management. More specifically, we estimate future waste coefficients that are designed to be fed into EMEC, which describes the Swedish economy in terms of 26 industrial sectors, a public sector, and households. Production in the model of industry and public sector requires input of labour, capital, energy, and other commodities. With waste-intensity coefficients added to each production parameter in each sector, EMEC can calculate the future waste quantities generated in different economic scenarios. To produce the waste-intensity coefficients, we make a survey of the current Swedish waste statistics. For each waste category from each sector we estimate whether the quantity depends primarily on the production in the sector, on the inputs of commodities, on the depreciation of capital goods, or on the size of the workforce in the sector. We calculate current waste-intensity coefficients by dividing the waste quantities by the parameter(s) to which they are assigned. We also present five different scenarios to describe how the waste intensity can develop until the year 2030. As far as possible and when deemed to be relevant, we have set the industrial waste generation to depend on the use of a commodity or an energy carrier. The quantity of spent vehicles and most equipment is set to depend on the depreciation of capital goods. Some wastes have been allocated to the staff, for example household waste from business. The quantities of wastes from households have a similar approach where every waste category is assigned to a combination of 26 different commodities

  4. Prediction of municipal solid waste generation using nonlinear autoregressive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younes, Mohammad K; Nopiah, Z M; Basri, N E Ahmad; Basri, H; Abushammala, Mohammed F M; Maulud, K N A

    2015-12-01

    Most of the developing countries have solid waste management problems. Solid waste strategic planning requires accurate prediction of the quality and quantity of the generated waste. In developing countries, such as Malaysia, the solid waste generation rate is increasing rapidly, due to population growth and new consumption trends that characterize society. This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) approach using feedforward nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) to predict annual solid waste generation in relation to demographic and economic variables like population number, gross domestic product, electricity demand per capita and employment and unemployment numbers. In addition, variable selection procedures are also developed to select a significant explanatory variable. The model evaluation was performed using coefficient of determination (R(2)) and mean square error (MSE). The optimum model that produced the lowest testing MSE (2.46) and the highest R(2) (0.97) had three inputs (gross domestic product, population and employment), eight neurons and one lag in the hidden layer, and used Fletcher-Powell's conjugate gradient as the training algorithm.

  5. Theoretical modelling of nuclear waste flows - 16377

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, J.F.; Biggs, S.R.; Fairweather, M.; Njobuenwu, D.; Yao, J.

    2009-01-01

    A large amount of nuclear waste is stored in tailings ponds as a solid-liquid slurry, and liquid flows containing suspensions of solid particles are encountered in the treatment and disposal of this waste. In processing this waste, it is important to understand the behaviour of particles within the flow in terms of their settling characteristics, their propensity to form solid beds, and the re-suspension characteristics of particles from a bed. A clearer understanding of such behaviour would allow the refinement of current approaches to waste management, potentially leading to reduced uncertainties in radiological impact assessments, smaller waste volumes and lower costs, accelerated clean-up, reduced worker doses, enhanced public confidence and diminished grounds for objection to waste disposal. Mathematical models are of significant value in nuclear waste processing since the extent of characterisation of wastes is in general low. Additionally, waste processing involves a diverse range of flows, within vessels, ponds and pipes. To investigate experimentally all waste form characteristics and potential flows of interest would be prohibitively expensive, whereas the use of mathematical models can help to focus experimental studies through the more efficient use of existing data, the identification of data requirements, and a reduction in the need for process optimisation in full-scale experimental trials. Validated models can also be used to predict waste transport behaviour to enable cost effective process design and continued operation, to provide input to process selection, and to allow the prediction of operational boundaries that account for the different types and compositions of particulate wastes. In this paper two mathematical modelling techniques, namely Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and large eddy simulation (LES), have been used to investigate particle-laden flows in a straight square duct and a duct with a bend. The flow solutions provided by

  6. Study of the sorption of actinide analogues on calcite and smectite as a model to predict the evolution of radioactive waste disposal in geological sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budiman Sastrowardoyo, Pratomo

    1991-01-01

    In the framework of the problem of the radioactive waste disposal in deep geological sites, the purpose of this study is to predict the sorption of radionuclides on minerals within the geological barrier, after the rupture of the containers and the release of the radionuclides into underground water. Neodymium labelled by 147 Nd was used as an analogue of trivalent actinides. Calcite and smectite were used as examples of altered minerals of granitic sites. In simple media, neodymium is retained with a high affinity on both minerals. Fast kinetics of fixation, high distribution coefficients and sorption capacities are favorable factors for the slowing down of radionuclide migration in underground water. Fixation on calcite is quasi irreversible. A second kinetic step was observed, leading to an increase of the retention capacity. In the first step, this is probably a superficial sorption, but with a non-homogeneous affinity for sorption sites. An exchange mechanism of Nd 3+ with Na + et Ca 2+ ions of smectite occurs. The Freundlich isotherm observed for both minerals can be used for predicting the retention of radioelements as a function of their concentration and introducing these data in a migration model after comparison with the results of dynamic and field experiments. (author) [fr

  7. Potential tank waste material anomalies located near the liquid observation wells: Model predicted responses of a neutron moisture detection system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finfrock, S.H.; Toffer, H.; Watson, W.T.

    1994-09-01

    Extensive analyses have been completed to demonstrate that a neutron moisture probe can be used to recognize anomalies in materials and geometry surrounding the liquid observation wells (LOWs). Furthermore, techniques can be developed that will permit the interpretation of detector readings, perturbed by the presence of anomalies, as more accurate moisture concentrations. This analysis effort extends the usefulness of a neutron moisture probe system significantly, especially in the complicated geometries and material conditions that may be encountered in the waste tanks. Both static-source and pulsed-source neutron probes were considered in the analyses. Four different detector configurations were investigated: Thermal and epithermal neutron detectors located in both the near and far field

  8. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  9. Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

    1990-08-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

  10. Methodology for predictive modeling of environmental transport and health effects for waste sites at the Savannah River Plant: Environmental information document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephensen, D.E.; King, C.M.; Looney, B.B.; Grant, M.W.

    1987-03-01

    This document provides information on the methods used to predict chemical transport and the associated health risk for various postulated closure activities at waste sites. The document was prepared as background documentation for the Department of Energy's proposed Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on waste management activities for groundwater protection at the Savannah River Plant (SRP). The various mathematical formulations used in the environmental transport analysis, the exposure assessment, and the health risk assessment used in the analysis of all foreseeable scenarios as defined by the National Environmental Policy Act (CFR, 1986) are presented in this document. The scenarios do not necessarily represent actual environmental conditions for every SRP waste site. This document was prepared in support of the National Environmental Policy Act process, but does not by itself satisfy federal or state regulatory requirements. 29 refs., 11 figs

  11. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  12. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-01-01

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval

  13. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-01

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  14. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan [Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  15. Waste isolation pilot plant disposal room model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butcher, B.M.

    1997-08-01

    This paper describes development of the conceptual and mathematical models for the part of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) repository performance assessment that is concerned with what happens to the waste over long times after the repository is decommissioned. These models, collectively referred to as the {open_quotes}Disposal Room Model,{close_quotes} describe the repository closure process during which deformation of the surrounding salt consolidates the waste. First, the relationship of repository closure to demonstration of compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standard (40 CFR 191 Appendix C) and how sensitive performance results are to it are examined. Next, a detailed description is provided of the elements of the disposal region, and properties selected for the salt, waste, and other potential disposal features such as backfill. Included in the discussion is an explanation of how the various models were developed over time. Other aspects of closure analysis, such as the waste flow model and method of analysis, are also described. Finally, the closure predictions used in the final performance assessment analysis for the WIPP Compliance Certification Application are summarized.

  16. Waste isolation pilot plant disposal room model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butcher, B.M.

    1997-08-01

    This paper describes development of the conceptual and mathematical models for the part of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) repository performance assessment that is concerned with what happens to the waste over long times after the repository is decommissioned. These models, collectively referred to as the open-quotes Disposal Room Model,close quotes describe the repository closure process during which deformation of the surrounding salt consolidates the waste. First, the relationship of repository closure to demonstration of compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standard (40 CFR 191 Appendix C) and how sensitive performance results are to it are examined. Next, a detailed description is provided of the elements of the disposal region, and properties selected for the salt, waste, and other potential disposal features such as backfill. Included in the discussion is an explanation of how the various models were developed over time. Other aspects of closure analysis, such as the waste flow model and method of analysis, are also described. Finally, the closure predictions used in the final performance assessment analysis for the WIPP Compliance Certification Application are summarized

  17. Waste vitrification: prediction of acceptable compositions in a lime-soda-silica glass-forming system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilliam, T.M.; Jantzen, C.M.

    1996-10-01

    A model is presented based upon calculated bridging oxygens which allows the prediction of the region of acceptable glass compositions for a lime-soda-silica glass-forming system containing mixed waste. The model can be used to guide glass formulation studies (e.g., treatability studies) or assess the applicability of vitrification to candidate waste streams

  18. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  19. MODEL PREDIKSI PENGARUH LIMBAH CAIR HOTEL TERHADAP KUALITAS AIR LAUT DI PESISIR TELUK KUPANG (A Prediction Model of Liquid Waste Hotel Impact on The Sea Water along The Coast of Kupang Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inty Megarini

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRAK Hotel-hotel di pesisir Teluk Kupang sebagian besar membuang efluen limbah cairnya ke laut. Kondisi ini akan berpengaruh terhadap kualitas air laut dan berdampak pada kelangsungan hidup biota dan mikroorganisme laut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membuat prediksi pengaruh efluen limbah cair hotel yang dibuang terhadap kualitas air laut di hadapannya. Parameter yang diteliti adalah minyak dan lemak dan ortofosfat efluen limbah cair hotel. Parameter kualitas air laut yang diteliti adalah kekeruhan, minyak dan lemak dan klorofil. Metode pengambilan sampel dan pengujian menggunakan SNI dan USEPA. Analisis data menggunakan uji korelasi dan regresi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kekeruhan air laut pada jarak 0 meter dan 25 meter dapat diprediksi dari kadar minyak dan lemak efluen limbah cair hotel melalui model regresi y = 0,0051 x + 4,8456 dan y = 0,0015 x + 4,5440. Kadar klorofil air laut pada jarak 25 meter dan 75 meter dapat diprediksi dari kadar ortofosfat efluen limbah cair hotel melalui persamaan regresi y = 0,0430 x + 0,0004 dan y = 0,0075 x + 0,0001. ABSTRACT Most of the hotels located along the coast of Kupang Bay dump their effluent liquid waste to the sea. This action will definitely affect the sea water quality and in turn, will unavoidably give deep impact on the life of both microorganism and all the living things in the sea. This research intends to make an impact prediction on the sea water quality over the dumping hotels’ affluent liquid waste to the sea. The parameters which are observed are oil and fat and orthophosphate of the hotels’ affluent liquid waste. While the observed parameters of the sea water quality are turbidity, oil and fat, and chlorophyll. The methods used to take and test the sample are SNI and USEPA. And to analyze the data, testing on both correlation and regression are applied. The result of the study reveals that the turbidity of the sea water within the range of 0 to 25 meters can be

  20. Computational Efficient Upscaling Methodology for Predicting Thermal Conductivity of Nuclear Waste forms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Dongsheng; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluated different upscaling methods to predict thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form, a heterogeneous material system. The efficiency and accuracy of these methods were compared. Thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form is an important property specific to scientific researchers, in waste form Integrated performance and safety code (IPSC). The effective thermal conductivity obtained from microstructure information and local thermal conductivity of different components is critical in predicting the life and performance of waste form during storage. How the heat generated during storage is directly related to thermal conductivity, which in turn determining the mechanical deformation behavior, corrosion resistance and aging performance. Several methods, including the Taylor model, Sachs model, self-consistent model, and statistical upscaling models were developed and implemented. Due to the absence of experimental data, prediction results from finite element method (FEM) were used as reference to determine the accuracy of different upscaling models. Micrographs from different loading of nuclear waste were used in the prediction of thermal conductivity. Prediction results demonstrated that in term of efficiency, boundary models (Taylor and Sachs model) are better than self consistent model, statistical upscaling method and FEM. Balancing the computation resource and accuracy, statistical upscaling is a computational efficient method in predicting effective thermal conductivity for nuclear waste form.

  1. A review of the predictive modelling and data requirements for the long-term safety assessment of the deep disposal of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broyd, T.W.

    1988-06-01

    This report considers the Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Pollution research and modelling requirements for a robust post-closure radiological risk assessment methodology applicable to the deep disposal of Low-Level Wastes and Intermediate-Level Wastes. Two disposal concepts have been envisaged: horizontal tunnels or galleries in a low permeability stratum of a sedimentary sequence located inland; vertical boreholes or shafts up to 15m diameter lined with concrete and of the order 500m to 1000m deep sunk into the seabed within territorial coastal waters of the United Kingdom. (author)

  2. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  3. Generalized waste package containment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebetrau, A.M.; Apted, M.J.

    1985-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is developing a performance assessment strategy to demonstrate compliance with standards and technical requirements of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the permanent disposal of high-level nuclear wastes in geologic repositories. One aspect of this strategy is the development of a unified performance model of the entire geologic repository system. Details of a generalized waste package containment (WPC) model and its relationship with other components of an overall repository model are presented in this paper. The WPC model provides stochastically determined estimates of the distributions of times-to-failure of the barriers of a waste package by various corrosion mechanisms and degradation processes. The model consists of a series of modules which employ various combinations of stochastic (probabilistic) and mechanistic process models, and which are individually designed to reflect the current state of knowledge. The WPC model is designed not only to take account of various site-specific conditions and processes, but also to deal with a wide range of site, repository, and waste package configurations. 11 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  4. Mathematical model of the Savannah River Site waste tank farm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, F.G. III.

    1991-01-01

    A mathematical model has been developed to simulate operation of the waste tank farm and the associated evaporator systems at the Savannah River Site. The model solves material balance equations to predict the volumes of liquid waste, salt, and sludge for all of the tanks within each of the evaporator systems. Additional logic is included to model the behavior of waste tanks not directly associated with the evaporators. Input parameters include the Material Management Plan forecast of canyon operations, specification of other waste sources for the evaporator systems, evaporator operating characteristics, and salt and sludge removal schedules. The model determines how the evaporators will operate, when waste transfers can be made, and waste accumulation rates. Output from the model includes waste tank contents, summaries of systems operations, and reports of space gain and the remaining capacity to store waste materials within the tank farm. Model simulations can be made to predict waste tank capacities on a daily basis for up to 20 years. The model is coded as a set of three computer programs designed to run on either IBM compatible or Apple Macintosh II personal computers

  5. Prediction of the compression ratio for municipal solid waste using decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heshmati R, Ali Akbar; Mokhtari, Maryam; Shakiba Rad, Saeed

    2014-01-01

    The compression ratio of municipal solid waste (MSW) is an essential parameter for evaluation of waste settlement and landfill design. However, no appropriate model has been proposed to estimate the waste compression ratio so far. In this study, a decision tree method was utilized to predict the waste compression ratio (C'c). The tree was constructed using Quinlan's M5 algorithm. A reliable database retrieved from the literature was used to develop a practical model that relates C'c to waste composition and properties, including dry density, dry weight water content, and percentage of biodegradable organic waste using the decision tree method. The performance of the developed model was examined in terms of different statistical criteria, including correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, mean absolute error and mean bias error, recommended by researchers. The obtained results demonstrate that the suggested model is able to evaluate the compression ratio of MSW effectively.

  6. Advances in modeling plastic waste pyrolysis processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safadi, Y. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, American University of Beirut, PO Box 11-0236, Beirut (Lebanon); Zeaiter, J. [Chemical Engineering Program, American University of Beirut, PO Box 11-0236, Beirut (Lebanon)

    2013-07-01

    The tertiary recycling of plastics via pyrolysis is recently gaining momentum due to promising economic returns from the generated products that can be used as a chemical feedstock or fuel. The need for prediction models to simulate such processes is essential in understanding in depth the mechanisms that take place during the thermal or catalytic degradation of the waste polymer. This paper presents key different models used successfully in literature so far. Three modeling schemes are identified: Power-Law, Lumped-Empirical, and Population-Balance based equations. The categorization is based mainly on the level of detail and prediction capability from each modeling scheme. The data shows that the reliability of these modeling approaches vary with the degree of details the experimental work and product analysis are trying to achieve.

  7. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using artificial intelligence modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasi, Maryam; El Hanandeh, Ali

    2016-10-01

    Municipal solid waste (MSW) management is a major concern to local governments to protect human health, the environment and to preserve natural resources. The design and operation of an effective MSW management system requires accurate estimation of future waste generation quantities. The main objective of this study was to develop a model for accurate forecasting of MSW generation that helps waste related organizations to better design and operate effective MSW management systems. Four intelligent system algorithms including support vector machine (SVM), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), artificial neural network (ANN) and k-nearest neighbours (kNN) were tested for their ability to predict monthly waste generation in the Logan City Council region in Queensland, Australia. Results showed artificial intelligence models have good prediction performance and could be successfully applied to establish municipal solid waste forecasting models. Using machine learning algorithms can reliably predict monthly MSW generation by training with waste generation time series. In addition, results suggest that ANFIS system produced the most accurate forecasts of the peaks while kNN was successful in predicting the monthly averages of waste quantities. Based on the results, the total annual MSW generated in Logan City will reach 9.4×10(7)kg by 2020 while the peak monthly waste will reach 9.37×10(6)kg. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Predicting the degradability of waste activated sludge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Richard; Parker, Wayne; Zhu, Henry; Houweling, Dwight; Murthy, Sudhir

    2009-08-01

    The objective of this study was to identify methods for estimating anaerobic digestibility of waste activated sludge (WAS). The WAS streams were generated in three sequencing batch reactors (SBRs) treating municipal wastewater. The wastewater and WAS properties were initially determined through simulation of SBR operation with BioWin (EnviroSim Associates Ltd., Flamborough, Ontario, Canada). Samples of WAS from the SBRs were subsequently characterized through respirometry and batch anaerobic digestion. Respirometry was an effective tool for characterizing the active fraction of WAS and could be a suitable technique for determining sludge composition for input to anaerobic models. Anaerobic digestion of the WAS revealed decreasing methane production and lower chemical oxygen demand removals as the SRT of the sludge increased. BioWin was capable of accurately describing the digestion of the WAS samples for typical digester SRTs. For extended digestion times (i.e., greater than 30 days), some degradation of the endogenous decay products was assumed to achieve accurate simulations for all sludge SRTs.

  9. Evaluation of models of waste glass durability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellison, A.

    1995-01-01

    The main variable under the control of the waste glass producer is the composition of the glass; thus a need exists to establish functional relationships between the composition of a waste glass and measures of processability, product consistency, and durability. Many years of research show that the structure and properties of a glass depend on its composition, so it seems reasonable to assume that there also is relationship between the composition of a waste glass and its resistance to attack by an aqueous solution. Several models have been developed to describe this dependence, and an evaluation their predictive capabilities is the subject of this paper. The objective is to determine whether any of these models describe the ''correct'' functional relationship between composition and corrosion rate. A more thorough treatment of the relationships between glass composition and durability has been presented elsewhere, and the reader is encouraged to consult it for a more detailed discussion. The models examined in this study are the free energy of hydration model, developed at the Savannah River Laboratory, the structural bond strength model, developed at the Vitreous State Laboratory at the Catholic University of America, and the Composition Variation Study, developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory

  10. Thermal Predictions of the Cooling of Waste Glass Canisters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donna Post Guillen

    2014-11-01

    Radioactive liquid waste from five decades of weapons production is slated for vitrification at the Hanford site. The waste will be mixed with glass forming additives and heated to a high temperature, then poured into canisters within a pour cave where the glass will cool and solidify into a stable waste form for disposal. Computer simulations were performed to predict the heat rejected from the canisters and the temperatures within the glass during cooling. Four different waste glass compositions with different thermophysical properties were evaluated. Canister centerline temperatures and the total amount of heat transfer from the canisters to the surrounding air are reported.

  11. SimpleTreat: a spreadsheet-based box model to predict the fate of xenobiotics in a municipal waste water treatment plant

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struijs J; van de Meent D; Stoltenkamp J

    1991-01-01

    A non-equilibrium steady state box model is reported, that predicts the fate of new chemicals in a conventional sewage treatment plant from a minimal input data set. The model, written in an electronic spreadsheet (Lotus TM 123), requires a minimum input: some basic properties of the chemical, its

  12. Prediction of long-term behaviour for nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoesmith, D.W.; Ikeda, B.M.; King, F.; Sunder, S.

    1996-09-01

    The modelling procedures developed for the long-term prediction of the corrosion of used fuel and of titanium and copper nuclear waste containers are described. The corrosion behaviour of these materials changes with time as the conditions within the conceptual disposal vault evolve from an early warm, oxidizing phase to an indefinite period of cool, anoxic conditions. For the two candidate container materials, this evolution of conditions means that the containers will be initially susceptible to localized corrosion but that in the long-term, corrosion should be more general in nature. The propagation of the pitting of Cu and of the crevice corrosion of Ti alloys is modelled using statistical models. General corrosion processes are modelled deterministically. For the fuel, deterministic electrochemical models have been developed to predict the long-term dissolution rate of U0 2 . The corrosion behaviour of materials in the disposal vault can be influenced by reengineering the vault environment. For instance, increasing the areal loading of containers will produce higher vault temperatures resulting in more extensive drying of the porous backfill materials. The initiation of crevice corrosion on Ti may then be delayed, leading to longer container lifetimes. For copper containers, minimizing the amount Of O 2 initially trapped in the pores of the backfill, or adding reducing agents to consume this O 2 faster, will limit the extent of corrosion, permitting a reduction of the container wall thickness necessary for containment. (author). 55 refs., 19 figs

  13. Predicting the potential of energy from agricultural wastes in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arifah Bahar; Ahmad Mahir Razali; Kamaruzzaman Sopian

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents the prediction of the potential of energy supply from agricultural wastes in Malaysia until the year 2005. The exponential smoothing method is used to predict the supply of energy from these resources. The prediction is based on four scenarios namely (a) business as usual, (b) increase in the plantation area by 1 % (c) increase in productivity by 1 % with no increase in plantation area and (d) decrease in plantation area of 1%. The agricultural wastes considered are from rubber, oil palm ,cocoa, paddy, coconut and pineapple resources. In Peninsular Malaysia, these resources include groundnut, sugar cane, and tapioca. Assuming an energy conversion of 30%, only three agricultural wastes can contribute as an energy supply i.e. oil palm, paddy and sugar cane wastes. The contribution of these resources to the demand of energy for Malaysia is 21% in the year 2000 and 17% in the year 2005. (Author)

  14. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety

  15. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

  16. Plasma Processing of Model Residential Solid Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messerle, V. E.; Mossé, A. L.; Nikonchuk, A. N.; Ustimenko, A. B.; Baimuldin, R. V.

    2017-09-01

    The authors have tested the technology of processing of model residential solid waste. They have developed and created a pilot plasma unit based on a plasma chamber incinerator. The waste processing technology has been tested and prepared for commercialization.

  17. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  18. Prediction of centrifugal pump-cleaning ability in waste sludge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Churnetski, B.V.

    1981-01-01

    Radioactive waste at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) is being transferred from older waste tanks to new, stress-relieved tanks for more effective waste management. The technology developed for waste removal involves the use of long-shaft, recirculating, centrifugal pumps (slurry pumps). Testing completed at the Savannah River Laboratory's 30-meter-diameter mock-up waste tank related the effective cleaning radius (ECR) of a slurry pump to critical pump and materials characteristics. Presently, this theory is being applied to radioactive waste at SRP. However, the technology can be applied to other remote handling situations where the slurry rheology can be determined. For SRP waste, an equation of the form: ECR α DV 0 (rho/tau 0 )/sup 1/2/ was determined where D is the nozzle diameter, V 0 is the average initial velocity, rho is the density of the slurry, and tau 0 is the yield stress of the slurry. Using this relationship, the cleaning performance of a pump operating in any SRP sludge environment can be predicted. Specifically, yield stress and density measurements on sludge samples can be used to predict the required number and effective location for slurry pumps in actual SRP waste tanks

  19. Case study on prediction of remaining methane potential of landfilled municipal solid waste by statistical analysis of waste composition data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sel, İlker; Çakmakcı, Mehmet; Özkaya, Bestamin; Suphi Altan, H

    2016-10-01

    Main objective of this study was to develop a statistical model for easier and faster Biochemical Methane Potential (BMP) prediction of landfilled municipal solid waste by analyzing waste composition of excavated samples from 12 sampling points and three waste depths representing different landfilling ages of closed and active sections of a sanitary landfill site located in İstanbul, Turkey. Results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used as a decision support tool to evaluation and describe the waste composition variables. Four principal component were extracted describing 76% of data set variance. The most effective components were determined as PCB, PO, T, D, W, FM, moisture and BMP for the data set. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models were built by original compositional data and transformed data to determine differences. It was observed that even residual plots were better for transformed data the R(2) and Adjusted R(2) values were not improved significantly. The best preliminary BMP prediction models consisted of D, W, T and FM waste fractions for both versions of regressions. Adjusted R(2) values of the raw and transformed models were determined as 0.69 and 0.57, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Predicting transport requirements for radioactive-waste slurries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motyka, T.; Randall, C.T.

    1983-01-01

    A method for predicting the transport requirements of radioactive waste slurries was developed. This method involved preparing nonradioactive sludge slurries chemically similar to the actual high-level waste. The rheological and settling characteristics of these synthetic waste slurries were measured and found to compare favorably with data on actual defense waste slurries. Pressure drop versus flow rate data obtained fom a 2-in. slurry test loop confirmed the Bingham plastic behavior of the slurry observed during viscometry measurements. The pipeline tests, however, yielded friction factors 30 percent lower than those predicted from viscometry data. Differences between the sets of data were attributed to inherent problems in interpreting accurate yield-stress values of slurry suspensions with Couette-type viscometers. Equivalent lengths of fittings were also determined and found to be less than that of water at a specified flow rate

  1. WASTES: a waste management logistics/economics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNair, G.W.; Shay, M.R.; Fletcher, J.F.; Cashwell, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The WASTES logistics model is a simulation language based model for analyzing the logistic flow of spent fuel/nuclear waste throughout the waste management system. The model tracks the movement of spent fuel/nuclear waste from point of generation to final destination. The model maintains inventories of spent fuel/nuclear waste at individual reactor sites as well as at various facilities within the waste management system. A maximum of 14 facilities may be utilized within a single run. These 14 facilities may include any combination of the following facilities: (1) federal interim storage (FIS), (2) reprocessing (REP), (3) monitored retrievable storage (MRS), (4) geological disposal facilities (GDF). The movement of spent fuel/nuclear waste between these facilities is controlled by the user specification of loading and unloading rates, annual and maximum capacities and commodity characteristics (minimum age or heat constraints) for each individual facility. In addition, the user may specify varying levels of priority on the spent fuel/nuclear waste that will be eligible for movement within a given year. These levels of priority allow the user to preferentially move spent fuel from reactor sites that are experiencing a loss of full-core-reserve (FCR) margin in a given year or from reactors that may be in the final stages of decommissioning. The WASTES model utilizes the reactor specific data available from the PNL spent fuel database. This database provides reactor specific information on items such as spent fuel basin size, reactor location, and transportation cask preference (i.e., rail or truck cask). In addition, detailed discharge data is maintained that provides the number of assemblies, metric tons, and exposure for both historic and projected discharges at each reactor site

  2. Use Of Stream Analyzer For Solubility Predictions Of Selected Hanford Tank Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierson, Kayla; Belsher, Jeremy; Ho, Quynh-dao

    2012-01-01

    The Hanford Tank Waste Operations Simulator (HTWOS) models the mission to manage, retrieve, treat and vitrify Hanford waste for long-term storage and disposal. HTWOS is a dynamic, flowsheet, mass balance model of waste retrieval and treatment activities. It is used to evaluate the impact of changes on long-term mission planning. The project is to create and evaluate the integrated solubility model (ISM). The ISM is a first step in improving the chemistry basis in HTWOS. On principal the ISM is better than the current HTWOS solubility. ISM solids predictions match the experimental data well, with a few exceptions. ISM predictions are consistent with Stream Analyzer predictions except for chromium. HTWOS is producing more realistic results with the ISM

  3. Review Of Rheology Models For Hanford Waste Blending

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koopman, D. C.; Stone, M.

    2013-09-26

    The area of rheological property prediction was identified as a technology need in the Hanford Tank Waste - waste feed acceptance initiative area during a series of technical meetings among the national laboratories, Department of Energy-Office of River Protection, and Hanford site contractors. Meacham et al. delivered a technical report in June 2012, RPP-RPT-51652 ''One System Evaluation of Waste Transferred to the Waste Treatment Plant'' that included estimating of single shell tank waste Bingham plastic rheological model constants along with a discussion of the issues inherent in predicting the rheological properties of blended wastes. This report was selected as the basis for moving forward during the technical meetings. The report does not provide an equation for predicting rheological properties of blended waste slurries. The attached technical report gives an independent review of the provided Hanford rheological data, Hanford rheological models for single tank wastes, and Hanford rheology after blending provided in the Meacham report. The attached report also compares Hanford to SRS waste rheology and discusses some SRS rheological model equations for single tank wastes, as well as discussing SRS experience with the blending of waste sludges with aqueous material, other waste sludges, and frit slurries. Some observations of note: Savannah River Site (SRS) waste samples from slurried tanks typically have yield stress >1 Pa at 10 wt.% undissolved solids (UDS), while core samples largely have little or no yield stress at 10 wt.% UDS. This could be due to how the waste has been processed, stored, retrieved, and sampled or simply in the differences in the speciation of the wastes. The equations described in Meacham's report are not recommended for extrapolation to wt.% UDS beyond the available data for several reasons; weak technical basis, insufficient data, and large data scatter. When limited data are available, for example two to

  4. Review Of Rheology Models For Hanford Waste Blending

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koopman, D. C.; Stone, M.

    2013-01-01

    The area of rheological property prediction was identified as a technology need in the Hanford Tank Waste - waste feed acceptance initiative area during a series of technical meetings among the national laboratories, Department of Energy-Office of River Protection, and Hanford site contractors. Meacham et al. delivered a technical report in June 2012, RPP-RPT-51652 ''One System Evaluation of Waste Transferred to the Waste Treatment Plant'' that included estimating of single shell tank waste Bingham plastic rheological model constants along with a discussion of the issues inherent in predicting the rheological properties of blended wastes. This report was selected as the basis for moving forward during the technical meetings. The report does not provide an equation for predicting rheological properties of blended waste slurries. The attached technical report gives an independent review of the provided Hanford rheological data, Hanford rheological models for single tank wastes, and Hanford rheology after blending provided in the Meacham report. The attached report also compares Hanford to SRS waste rheology and discusses some SRS rheological model equations for single tank wastes, as well as discussing SRS experience with the blending of waste sludges with aqueous material, other waste sludges, and frit slurries. Some observations of note: Savannah River Site (SRS) waste samples from slurried tanks typically have yield stress >1 Pa at 10 wt.% undissolved solids (UDS), while core samples largely have little or no yield stress at 10 wt.% UDS. This could be due to how the waste has been processed, stored, retrieved, and sampled or simply in the differences in the speciation of the wastes. The equations described in Meacham's report are not recommended for extrapolation to wt.% UDS beyond the available data for several reasons; weak technical basis, insufficient data, and large data scatter. When limited data are available, for example two to three points, the equations

  5. Verification and validation for waste disposal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-07-01

    A set of evaluation criteria has been developed to assess the suitability of current verification and validation techniques for waste disposal methods. A survey of current practices and techniques was undertaken and evaluated using these criteria with the items most relevant to waste disposal models being identified. Recommendations regarding the most suitable verification and validation practices for nuclear waste disposal modelling software have been made

  6. Predictive geology in nuclear-waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brotzen, O.

    1982-01-01

    The present situation at a specific site on the Baltic Shield is viewed in the light of its geologic history. Prediction, at a given level of confidence and from a limited number of drillholes of the minimum average spacing of conductive zones in subsurface rocks of low-hydraulic conductivity, is based on a combination of the binomial and Poisson distributions, regarding the holes as a profile sampling and assuming a cubic pattern of fractures. The data provide an empirical basis for linking the nature and frequency of past geologic events to their local effects. Special attention is given to the preservation of tectonic blocks of large rock volumes with low-hydraulic conductivity throughout the present cratonic stage, whereas intermittent movement can be traced in marked fault zones bordering the Shield and three different orogenies affected the surrounding regions. Rock mechanical, stochastic, and deterministic approaches are utilized to predict future effects from this basis. (author)

  7. Predictive geology in nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brotzen, O.

    1980-07-01

    The present situation at a specific site in the Baltic Shield is viewed in the light of its geologic history. Prediction, at a given level of confidence and from a limited number of drillholes, of the minimum average spacing of conductive zones in subsurface rocks of low hydraulic conductivity is based on a combination of the binomial and Poisson distribution, regarding the holes as a profile sampling and assuming a cubic pattern of fractures. The data provide an empirical basis for linking the nature and frequency of past geologic events to their local effects. Special attenetion is given to the preservation of tectonic blocks of large rock-volumes with very low hydraulic conductivity throughout the present cratonic stage, during which intermittent movement took place in marked fault-zones bordering the Shield, and three different orogenies affected the surrounding regions. Rock-mechanical, stochastic and deterministic approaches are utilized to predict future effects from this basis. (Author)

  8. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  9. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  10. Non-linear model predictive supervisory controller for building, air handling unit with recuperator and refrigeration system with heat waste recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minko, Tomasz; Wisniewski, Rafal; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2016-01-01

    . The retrieved heat excess can be stored in the water tank. For this purpose the charging and the discharging water loops has been designed. We present the non-linear model of the above described system and a non-linear model predictive supervisory controller that according to the received price signal......, occupancy information and ambient temperature minimizes the operation cost of the whole system and distributes set points to local controllers of supermarkets subsystems. We find that when reliable information about the high price period is available, it is profitable to use the refrigeration system...... to generate heat during the low price period, store it and use it to substitute the conventional heater during the high price period....

  11. Analysis on 3RWB model (Reduce, reuse, recycle, and waste bank) in comprehensive waste management toward community-based zero waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Affandy, Nur Azizah; Isnaini, Enik; Laksono, Arif Budi

    2017-06-01

    Waste management becomes a serious issue in Indonesia. Significantly, waste production in Lamongan Regency is increasing in linear with the growth of population and current people activities, creating a gap between waste production and waste management. It is a critical problem that should be solved immediately. As a reaction to the issue, the Government of Lamongan Regency has enacted a new policy regarding waste management through a program named Lamongan Green and Clean (LGC). From the collected data, it showed that the "wet waste" or "organic waste" was approximately 63% of total domestic waste. With such condition, it can be predicted that the trashes will decompose quite quickly. From the observation, it was discovered that the generated waste was approximately 0.25 kg/person/day. Meanwhile, the number of population in Tumenggungan Village, Lamongan (data obtained from Monograph in Lamongan district, 2012) was 4651 people. Thus, it can be estimated the total waste in Lamongan was approximately 0.25 kg/person/day x 4651 characters = 930 kg/day. Within 3RWB Model, several stages have to be conducted. In the planning stage, the promotion of self-awareness among the communities in selecting and managing waste due to their interest in a potential benefit, is done. It indicated that community's awareness of waste management waste grew significantly. Meanwhile in socialization stage, each village staff, environmental expert, and policymaker should bear significant role in disseminating the awareness among the people. In the implementation phase, waste management with 3RWB model is promoted by applying it among of the community, starting from selection, waste management, until recycled products sale through the waste bank. In evaluation stage, the village managers, environmental expert, and waste managers are expected to regularly supervise and evaluate the whole activity of the waste management.

  12. Prediction of radionuclide inventory for the low-and intermediated-level radioactive waste disposal facility the radioactive waste classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Kang Il; Jeong, Noh Gyeom; Moon, Young Pyo; Jeong, Mi Seon; Park, Jin Beak

    2016-01-01

    To meet nuclear regulatory requirements, more than 95% individual radionuclides in the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste inventory have to be identified. In this study, the radionuclide inventory has been estimated by taking the long-term radioactive waste generation, the development plan of disposal facility, and the new radioactive waste classification into account. The state of radioactive waste cumulated from 2014 was analyzed for various radioactive sources and future prospects for predicting the long-term radioactive waste generation. The predicted radionuclide inventory results are expected to contribute to secure the development of waste disposal facility and to deploy the safety case for its long-term safety assessment

  13. A data base approach for prediction of deforestation-induced mass wasting events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, T. L.

    1981-01-01

    A major topic of concern in timber management is determining the impact of clear-cutting on slope stability. Deforestation treatments on steep mountain slopes have often resulted in a high frequency of major mass wasting events. The Geographic Information System (GIS) is a potentially useful tool for predicting the location of mass wasting sites. With a raster-based GIS, digitally encoded maps of slide hazard parameters can be overlayed and modeled to produce new maps depicting high probability slide areas. The present investigation has the objective to examine the raster-based information system as a tool for predicting the location of the clear-cut mountain slopes which are most likely to experience shallow soil debris avalanches. A literature overview is conducted, taking into account vegetation, roads, precipitation, soil type, slope-angle and aspect, and models predicting mass soil movements. Attention is given to a data base approach and aspects of slide prediction.

  14. Enhanced Waste Tank Level Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duignan, M.R.

    1999-06-24

    'With the increased sensitivity of waste-level measurements in the H-Area Tanks and with periods of isolation, when no mass transfer occurred for certain tanks, waste-level changes have been recorded with are unexplained.'

  15. PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.

  16. Model development for household waste prevention behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bortoleto, Ana Paula; Kurisu, Kiyo H.; Hanaki, Keisuke

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We model waste prevention behaviour using structure equation modelling. ► We merge attitude–behaviour theories with wider models from environmental psychology. ► Personal norms and perceived behaviour control are the main behaviour predictors. ► Environmental concern, moral obligation and inconvenience are the main influence on the behaviour. ► Waste prevention and recycling are different dimensions of waste management behaviour. - Abstract: Understanding waste prevention behaviour (WPB) could enable local governments and decision makers to design more-effective policies for reducing the amount of waste that is generated. By merging well-known attitude–behaviour theories with elements from wider models from environmental psychology, an extensive cognitive framework that provides new and valuable insights is developed for understanding the involvement of individuals in waste prevention. The results confirm the usefulness of the theory of planned behaviour and of Schwartz’s altruistic behaviour model as bases for modelling participation in waste prevention. A more elaborate integrated model of prevention was shown to be necessary for the complete analysis of attitudinal aspects associated with waste prevention. A postal survey of 158 respondents provided empirical support for eight of 12 hypotheses. The proposed structural equation indicates that personal norms and perceived behaviour control are the main predictors and that, unlike the case of recycling, subjective norms have a weak influence on WPB. It also suggests that, since social norms have not presented a direct influence, WPB is likely to be influenced by a concern for the environment and the community as well by perceptions of moral obligation and inconvenience. Results also proved that recycling and waste prevention represent different dimensions of waste management behaviour requiring particular approaches to increase individuals’ engagement in future policies.

  17. Model development for household waste prevention behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bortoleto, Ana Paula, E-mail: a.bortoleto@sheffield.ac.uk [Department of Urban Engineering, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan); Kurisu, Kiyo H.; Hanaki, Keisuke [Department of Urban Engineering, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan)

    2012-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model waste prevention behaviour using structure equation modelling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We merge attitude-behaviour theories with wider models from environmental psychology. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Personal norms and perceived behaviour control are the main behaviour predictors. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental concern, moral obligation and inconvenience are the main influence on the behaviour. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Waste prevention and recycling are different dimensions of waste management behaviour. - Abstract: Understanding waste prevention behaviour (WPB) could enable local governments and decision makers to design more-effective policies for reducing the amount of waste that is generated. By merging well-known attitude-behaviour theories with elements from wider models from environmental psychology, an extensive cognitive framework that provides new and valuable insights is developed for understanding the involvement of individuals in waste prevention. The results confirm the usefulness of the theory of planned behaviour and of Schwartz's altruistic behaviour model as bases for modelling participation in waste prevention. A more elaborate integrated model of prevention was shown to be necessary for the complete analysis of attitudinal aspects associated with waste prevention. A postal survey of 158 respondents provided empirical support for eight of 12 hypotheses. The proposed structural equation indicates that personal norms and perceived behaviour control are the main predictors and that, unlike the case of recycling, subjective norms have a weak influence on WPB. It also suggests that, since social norms have not presented a direct influence, WPB is likely to be influenced by a concern for the environment and the community as well by perceptions of moral obligation and inconvenience. Results also proved that recycling and waste prevention represent different dimensions of waste

  18. Solid Waste Management Holistic Decision Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2008-01-01

    This study provides support to the Bank's ability to conduct client dialogue on solid waste management technology selection, and will contribute to client decision-making. The goal of the study was to fully explore the use of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Research Triangle Institute (EPA/RTI) holistic decision model to study alternative solid waste systems in a ...

  19. Combustion modeling in waste tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.; Unal, C.; Travis, J.R.; Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe

    1997-01-01

    This paper has two objectives. The first one is to repeat previous simulations of release and combustion of flammable gases in tank SY-101 at the Hanford reservation with the recently developed code GASFLOW-II. The GASFLOW-II results are compared with the results obtained with the HMS/TRAC code and show good agreement, especially for non-combustion cases. For combustion GASFLOW-II predicts a steeper pressure rise than HMS/TRAC. The second objective is to describe a so-called induction parameter model which was developed and implemented into GASFLOW-II and reassess previous calculations of Bureau of Mines experiments for hydrogen-air combustion. The pressure time history improves compared with the one-step model, and the time rate of pressure change is much closer to the experimental data

  20. WASTES: a waste management logistics/economics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNair, G.W.; Shay, M.R.; Fletcher, J.F.; Cashwell, J.W.

    1985-02-01

    The WASTES model simulates a user defined system for nuclear waste transportation and storage at both temporary and long-term storage facilities. The model is written in FORTRAN 77 as an extension to the SLAM commercial simulation package (Pritsker and Pegden 1979). SLAM (Simulation Language for Alternative Modeling) is utilized in a discrete event mode to model the passage of spent fuel through the system. The system is initiated with individual reactor discharges of spent fuel as described in the reactor discharge data file or as supplied by the user. The reactor discharge file contains deterministic information on the date (year/month) and quantity of spent fuel discharges. From this point, the model is controlled by a combination of source originated and destination originated transfers. Source driven transfers occur when a reactor pool violates the full core reserve (FCR) storage margin or when the reactor is decommissioned. At these times, the source reactor checks destination facilities to see if they can accept material. A dry storage facility is assumed to exist for each reactor and is allowed to grow as necessary to contain spent fuel which cannot be shipped to any other facility. In this way the FCR margin is always maintained. Destination driven transfers occur when the annual capacity of a facility will not be met by full core reserve or decommissioning shipments. An attempt is made at the end of each calendar year to schedule enough shipments of spent fuel from facilities with non-critical storage capacity to fill the annual capacity of each destination facility. Allowable facility types are reprocessing plants, federal interim storage (FIS), monitored retrievable storage (MRS), and repositories. The number, capacities, location and priority for receipt of spent fuel is user specified. This report describes in detail the waste generating model, the waste facilities model, the transportation model and the basic transportation scheme

  1. An integrated degradation and structural model for predicting the service life of buried reinforced concrete structures for low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandstetter, E.R.; Lolcama, J.L.; Reed, S.R.

    1994-01-01

    The primary focus of this study was to determine the possible rates of roof and wall failure and the times to structural collapse of the roof and walls of three vault designs at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site near Aiken, South Carolina. Failure was defined as a loss of ability to divert soil water around the vault. Collapse was defined as the total loss of structure integrity of the vault. Failure and eventual collapse of the three vault types results from concrete deterioration under stress, in the presence of corrosive soil water. Degradation rates for reinforced concrete were utilized, and the resultant changes in properties (such as strength, thickness, cracking and hydraulic conductivity) were evaluated. Baseline times to failure and collapse of the walls and roof components were modeled, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to provide boundaries on these estimated times. Thus, the goal of the project was to provide a bounding analysis of the time to roof and wall failure and potential collapse, rather than an actual prediction of the time to failure, and collapse

  2. Thermodynamic model of natural, medieval and nuclear waste glass durability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jantzen, C.M.; Plodinec, M.J.

    1983-01-01

    A thermodynamic model of glass durability based on hydration of structural units has been applied to natural glass, medieval window glasses, and glasses containing nuclear waste. The relative durability predicted from the calculated thermodynamics correlates directly with the experimentally observed release of structural silicon in the leaching solution in short-term laboratory tests. By choosing natural glasses and ancient glasses whose long-term performance is known, and which bracket the durability of waste glasses, the long-term stability of nuclear waste glasses can be interpolated among these materials. The current Savannah River defense waste glass formulation is as durable as natural basalt from the Hanford Reservation (10 6 years old). The thermodynamic hydration energy is shown to be related to the bond energetics of the glass. 69 references, 2 figures, 1 table

  3. Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

  4. Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

  5. Modeling of urban solid waste management system: The case of Dhaka city

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sufian, M.A.; Bala, B.K.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a system dynamics computer model to predict solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation from solid waste and to assess the needs for waste management of the urban city of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Simulated results show that solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation potential from solid waste increase with time. Population, uncleared waste, untreated waste, composite index and public concern are projected to increase with time for Dhaka city. Simulated results also show that increasing the budget for collection capacity alone does not improve environmental quality; rather an increased budget is required for both collection and treatment of solid wastes of Dhaka city. Finally, this model can be used as a computer laboratory for urban solid waste management (USWM) policy analysis

  6. Modeling of urban solid waste management system: the case of Dhaka city

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sufian, M.A.; Bala, B.K.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a system dynamics computer model to predict solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation from solid waste and to assess the needs for waste management of the urban city Dhaka Bangladesh. Simulated results show that solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation potential from solid waste increase with time. Population, uncleared waste, untreated waste, composite index and public concern are increasing with time for Dhaka city. Simulated results also show that increasing the budge for collection capacity alone does not improve the environmental quality rather increased budget is required for both collection and treatment of solid wastes of Dhaka city. Finally, this model can be used as a compute laboratory for urban solid waste management (USWM) policy analysis. (author)

  7. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  8. Model development for household waste prevention behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortoleto, Ana Paula; Kurisu, Kiyo H; Hanaki, Keisuke

    2012-12-01

    Understanding waste prevention behaviour (WPB) could enable local governments and decision makers to design more-effective policies for reducing the amount of waste that is generated. By merging well-known attitude-behaviour theories with elements from wider models from environmental psychology, an extensive cognitive framework that provides new and valuable insights is developed for understanding the involvement of individuals in waste prevention. The results confirm the usefulness of the theory of planned behaviour and of Schwartz's altruistic behaviour model as bases for modelling participation in waste prevention. A more elaborate integrated model of prevention was shown to be necessary for the complete analysis of attitudinal aspects associated with waste prevention. A postal survey of 158 respondents provided empirical support for eight of 12 hypotheses. The proposed structural equation indicates that personal norms and perceived behaviour control are the main predictors and that, unlike the case of recycling, subjective norms have a weak influence on WPB. It also suggests that, since social norms have not presented a direct influence, WPB is likely to be influenced by a concern for the environment and the community as well by perceptions of moral obligation and inconvenience. Results also proved that recycling and waste prevention represent different dimensions of waste management behaviour requiring particular approaches to increase individuals' engagement in future policies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Life-cycle assessment of municipal solid wastes: Development of the WASTED model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, R.; Warith, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the development of the Waste Analysis Software Tool for Environmental Decisions (WASTED) model. This model provides a comprehensive view of the environmental impacts of municipal solid waste management systems. The model consists of a number of separate submodels that describe a typical waste management process: waste collection, material recovery, composting, energy recovery from waste and landfilling. These submodels are combined to represent a complete waste management system. WASTED uses compensatory systems to account for the avoided environmental impacts derived from energy recovery and material recycling. The model is designed to provide solid waste decision-makers and environmental researchers with a tool to evaluate waste management plans and to improve the environmental performance of solid waste management strategies. The model is user-friendly and compares favourably with other earlier models

  10. Degradation modeling of the ANL ceramic waste form

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanning, T. H.; Morss, L. R.

    2000-01-01

    A ceramic waste form composed of glass-bonded sodalite is being developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) for immobilization and disposition of the molten salt waste stream from the electrometallurgical treatment process for metallic DOE spent nuclear fuel. As part of the spent fuel treatment program at ANL, a model is being developed to predict the long-term release of radionuclides under repository conditions. Dissolution tests using dilute, pH-buffered solutions have been conducted at 40, 70, and 90 C to determine the temperature and pH dependence of the dissolution rate. Parameter values measured in these tests have been incorporated into the model, and preliminary repository performance assessment modeling has been completed. Results indicate that the ceramic waste form should be acceptable in a repository environment

  11. Rapid biochemical methane potential prediction of urban organic waste with near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitamo, Temesgen Mathewos; Triolo, Jin Mi; Boldrin, Alessio

    2017-01-01

    . The aim of the present study is to develop a fast and reliable model based on near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) for the BMP prediction of urban organic waste (UOW). The model comprised 87 UOW samples. Additionally, 88 plant biomass samples were included, to develop a combined model predicting...... BMP. The coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error in prediction (RMSEP) of the UOW model were 0.88 and 44 mL CH4/g VS, while the combined model was 0.89 and 50 mL CH4/g VS. Improved model performance was obtained for the two individual models compared to the combined version...

  12. Mixed waste treatment model: Basis and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, B.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Department of Energy's Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) required treatment system capacities for risk and cost calculation. Los Alamos was tasked with providing these capacities to the PEIS team. This involved understanding the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex waste, making the necessary changes to correct for problems, categorizing the waste for treatment, and determining the treatment system requirements. The treatment system requirements depended on the incoming waste, which varied for each PEIS case. The treatment system requirements also depended on the type of treatment that was desired. Because different groups contributing to the PEIS needed specific types of results, we provided the treatment system requirements in a variety of forms. In total, some 40 data files were created for the TRU cases, and for the MLLW case, there were 105 separate data files. Each data file represents one treatment case consisting of the selected waste from various sites, a selected treatment system, and the reporting requirements for such a case. The treatment system requirements in their most basic form are the treatment process rates for unit operations in the desired treatment system, based on a 10-year working life and 20-year accumulation of the waste. These results were reported in cubic meters and for the MLLW case, in kilograms as well. The treatment system model consisted of unit operations that are linked together. Each unit operation's function depended on the input waste streams, waste matrix, and contaminants. Each unit operation outputs one or more waste streams whose matrix, contaminants, and volume/mass may have changed as a result of the treatment. These output streams are then routed to the appropriate unit operation for additional treatment until the output waste stream meets the treatment requirements for disposal. The total waste for each unit operation was calculated as well as the waste for each matrix treated by the unit

  13. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... signal based on a process model, coping with constraints on inputs and ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes ... section 5 presents the simulation results and section 6.

  14. Development of scaling factor prediction method for radionuclide composition in low-level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jin Beak

    1995-02-01

    Low-level radioactive waste management require the knowledge of the natures and quantities of radionuclides in the immobilized or packaged waste. U. S. NRC rules require programs that measure the concentrations of all relevant nuclides either directly or indirectly by relating difficult-to-measure radionuclides to other easy-to-measure radionuclides with application of scaling factors. Scaling factors previously developed through statistical approach can give only generic ones and have many difficult problem about sampling procedures. Generic scaling factors can not take into account for plant operation history. In this study, a method to predict plant-specific and operational history dependent scaling factors is developed. Realistic and detailed approach are taken to find scaling factors at reactor coolant. This approach begin with fission product release mechanisms and fundamental release properties of fuel-source nuclide such as fission product and transuranic nuclide. Scaling factors at various waste streams are derived from the predicted reactor coolant scaling factors with the aid of radionuclide retention and build up model. This model make use of radioactive material balance within the radioactive waste processing systems. Scaling factors at reactor coolant and waste streams which can include the effects of plant operation history have been developed according to input parameters of plant operation history

  15. Multipurpose optimization models for high level waste vitrification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoza, M.

    1994-08-01

    Optimal Waste Loading (OWL) models have been developed as multipurpose tools for high-level waste studies for the Tank Waste Remediation Program at Hanford. Using nonlinear programming techniques, these models maximize the waste loading of the vitrified waste and optimize the glass formers composition such that the glass produced has the appropriate properties within the melter, and the resultant vitrified waste form meets the requirements for disposal. The OWL model can be used for a single waste stream or for blended streams. The models can determine optimal continuous blends or optimal discrete blends of a number of different wastes. The OWL models have been used to identify the most restrictive constraints, to evaluate prospective waste pretreatment methods, to formulate and evaluate blending strategies, and to determine the impacts of variability in the wastes. The OWL models will be used to aid in the design of frits and the maximize the waste in the glass for High-Level Waste (HLW) vitrification

  16. Chemical speciation of strontium, americium, and curium in high level waste: Predictive modeling of phase partitioning during tank processing. Annual progress report, October 1996--September 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choppin, G.; Felmy, A.R.

    1997-01-01

    'The program at Florida State University was funded to collaborate with Dr. A. Felmy (PNNL) on speciation in high level wastes and with Dr. D. Rai (PNNL) on redox of Pu under high level waste conditions. The funding provided support for 3 research associates (postdoctoral researchers) under Professor G. R. Choppin as P.I. Dr. Kath Morris from U. Manchester (Great Britain), Dr. Dean Peterman and Dr. Amy Irwin (both from U. Cincinnati) joined the laboratory in the latter part of 1996. After an initial training period to become familiar with basic actinide chemistry and radiochemical techniques, they began their research. Dr. Peterman was assigned the task of measuring Th-EDTA complexation prior to measuring Pu(IV)-EDTA complexation. These studies are associated with the speciation program with Dr. Felmy. Drs. Morris and Irwin initiated research on redox of plutonium with agents present in the Hanford Tanks as a result of radiolysis or from use in separations. The preliminary results obtained thus far are described in this report. It is expected that the rate of progress will continue to increase significantly as the researchers gain more experience with plutonium chemistry.'

  17. Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gervasio, V.; Kim, D. S.; Vienna, J. D.; Kruger, A. A.

    2018-03-08

    Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints (Vienna et al. 2016), and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable waste oxide loading (WOL) was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of immobilized high-level waste (IHLW) glass when no uncertainties were taken into account. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). The immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with waste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MT. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.

  18. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Multiple system modelling of waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eriksson, Ola; Bisaillon, Mattias

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Linking of models will provide a more complete, correct and credible picture of the systems. → The linking procedure is easy to perform and also leads to activation of project partners. → The simulation procedure is a bit more complicated and calls for the ability to run both models. - Abstract: Due to increased environmental awareness, planning and performance of waste management has become more and more complex. Therefore waste management has early been subject to different types of modelling. Another field with long experience of modelling and systems perspective is energy systems. The two modelling traditions have developed side by side, but so far there are very few attempts to combine them. Waste management systems can be linked together with energy systems through incineration plants. The models for waste management can be modelled on a quite detailed level whereas surrounding systems are modelled in a more simplistic way. This is a problem, as previous studies have shown that assumptions on the surrounding system often tend to be important for the conclusions. In this paper it is shown how two models, one for the district heating system (MARTES) and another one for the waste management system (ORWARE), can be linked together. The strengths and weaknesses with model linking are discussed when compared to simplistic assumptions on effects in the energy and waste management systems. It is concluded that the linking of models will provide a more complete, correct and credible picture of the consequences of different simultaneous changes in the systems. The linking procedure is easy to perform and also leads to activation of project partners. However, the simulation procedure is a bit more complicated and calls for the ability to run both models.

  20. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  1. Hanford defined waste model limitations and improvements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HARMSEN, R.W.

    1999-01-01

    Recommendation 93-5 Implementation Plan, Milestone 5,6.3.1.i requires issuance of this report which addresses ''updates to the tank contents model''. This report summarizes the review of the Hanford Defined Waste, Revision 4, model limitations and provides conclusions and recommendations for potential updates to the model

  2. Modelling Waste Output from Trout Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, J. O.; From, J.; Larsen, Torben

    1995-01-01

    to calculate waste discharge from existing and planned aquaculture activities. A special purpose is simulating outcome of waste water treatment and altered feeding programmes. Different submodels must be applied for P, N, and organics, as well as for the different phases of food and waste treatment. Altogether...... this calls for an array of co-operating submodels for a sufficient coverage of the options. In all the required fields there is some scientific background for numerical model approaches, and some submodels have been proposed. Because of its multidisciplinary character a synthesized approach is still lacking...

  3. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  4. A new viscosity model for waste glass formulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadler, A.L.K.

    1996-01-01

    Waste glass formulation requires prediction, with reasonable accuracy, of properties over much wider ranges of composition than are typically encountered in any single industrial application. Melt viscosity is one such property whose behavior must be predicted in formulating new waste glasses. A model was developed for silicate glasses which relates the Arrhenius activation energy for flow to an open-quotes effectiveclose quotes measure of non-bridging oxygen content in the melt, NBO eff . The NBO eff parameter incorporates the differing effects of modifying cations on the depolymerization of the silicate network. The activation energy-composition relationship implied by the model is in accordance with experimental behavior. The model was validated against two different databases, with satisfactory results

  5. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  6. Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Wiktorowicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

  7. Prediction of long term stability for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Koide, Hitoshi; Kono, Itoshi

    1998-01-01

    On geological disposal of radioactive wastes, study on prediction of diastrophism has been paid many attentions, and then long term future prediction ranging from some thousands to some tends thousands years may be necessary for some target nuclides. As there are various methods in the future prediction, it is essential to use a computational dynamic procedure to conduct a quantitative prediction. However, it causes an obstacle to advancement of the prediction method that informations on deep underground have a lot of uncertain elements because of their few and indirect data. In this paper, a long term prediction procedure of diastrophism relating to geological disposal of radioactive wastes with low level but isolation terms required to some thousands years was investigated and each one example was shown on flow of the investigation and its modeling method by using the finite element method. It seems to be a key to upgrade accuracy of future diastrophism prediction how an earth fault can be analyzed. And, as the diastrophism is a long term and complex phenomenon and its prediction has many uncertain elements, it is important to judge comprehensively results of its numerical analysis geologically and on rock engineering. (G.K.)

  8. Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

  9. The use of artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression to predict rate of medical waste generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahandideh, Sepideh; Jahandideh, Samad; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari; Askarian, Mehrdad; Movahedi, Mohammad Mehdi; Hosseini, Somayyeh; Jahandideh, Mina

    2009-01-01

    Prediction of the amount of hospital waste production will be helpful in the storage, transportation and disposal of hospital waste management. Based on this fact, two predictor models including artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR) were applied to predict the rate of medical waste generation totally and in different types of sharp, infectious and general. In this study, a 5-fold cross-validation procedure on a database containing total of 50 hospitals of Fars province (Iran) were used to verify the performance of the models. Three performance measures including MAR, RMSE and R 2 were used to evaluate performance of models. The MLR as a conventional model obtained poor prediction performance measure values. However, MLR distinguished hospital capacity and bed occupancy as more significant parameters. On the other hand, ANNs as a more powerful model, which has not been introduced in predicting rate of medical waste generation, showed high performance measure values, especially 0.99 value of R 2 confirming the good fit of the data. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the non-linear nature of ANNs in problem solving which provides the opportunity for relating independent variables to dependent ones non-linearly. In conclusion, the obtained results showed that our ANN-based model approach is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better cost-effective strategy for waste management in future.

  10. Reinvestigation into Closure Predictions of Room D at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reedlunn, Benjamin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Room D was an in-situ, isothermal, underground experiment conducted at theWaste Isolation Pilot Plant between 1984 and 1991. The room was carefully instrumented to measure the horizontal and vertical closure immediately upon excavation and for several years thereafter. Early finite element simulations of salt creep around Room D under predicted the vertical closure by 4.5×, causing investigators to explore a series of changes to the way Room D was modeled. Discrepancies between simulations and measurements were resolved through a series of adjustments to model parameters, which were openly acknowledged in published reports. Interest in Room D has been rekindled recently by the U.S./German Joint Project III and Project WEIMOS, which seek to improve the predictions of rock salt constitutive models. Joint Project participants calibrate their models solely against laboratory tests, and benchmark the models against underground experiments, such as room D. This report describes updating legacy Room D simulations to today’s computational standards by rectifying several numerical issues. Subsequently, the constitutive model used in previous modeling is recalibrated two different ways against a suite of new laboratory creep experiments on salt extracted from the repository horizon of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Simulations with the new, laboratory-based, calibrations under predict Room D vertical closure by 3.1×. A list of potential improvements is discussed.

  11. Reinvestigation into Closure Predictions of Room D at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reedlunn, Benjamin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-09-27

    Room D was an in-situ, isothermal, underground experiment conducted at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant between 1984 and 1991. The room was carefully instrumented to measure the horizontal and vertical closure immediately upon excavation and for several years thereafter. Early finite element simulations of salt creep around Room D under-predicted the vertical closure by 4.5×, causing investigators to explore a series of changes to the way Room D was modeled. Discrepancies between simulations and measurements were resolved through a series of adjustments to model parameters, which were openly acknowledged in published reports. Interest in Room D has been rekindled recently by the U.S./German Joint Project III and Project WEIMOS, which seek to improve the predictions of rock salt constitutive models. Joint Project participants calibrate their models solely against laboratory tests, and benchmark the models against underground experiments, such as room D. This report describes updating legacy Room D simulations to today’s computational standards by rectifying several numerical issues. Subsequently, the constitutive model used in previous modeling is recalibrated two different ways against a suite of new laboratory creep experiments on salt extracted from the repository horizon of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Simulations with the new, laboratory-based, calibrations under-predict Room D vertical closure by 3.1×. A list of potential improvements is discussed.

  12. Salt Repository Project: Waste Package Program (WPP) modeling activiteis: FY 1984 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuhn, W.L.; Simonson, S.A.; Pulsipher, B.A.

    1987-03-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is supporting the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Salt Repository Project (SRP) through its Waste Package Program (WPP). During FY 1984, the WPP continued its program of waste package component development and interactions testing and application of the resulting data base to develop predictive models describing waste package degradation and radionuclide release. Within the WPP, the Modeling Task (Task 04 during FY 1984) was conducted to interpret the tests in such a way that scientifically defensible models can be developed for use in qualification of the waste package

  13. Life cycle assessment modelling of waste-to-energy incineration in Spain and Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margallo, M; Aldaco, R; Irabien, A; Carrillo, V; Fischer, M; Bala, A; Fullana, P

    2014-06-01

    In recent years, waste management systems have been evaluated using a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. A main shortcoming of prior studies was the focus on a mixture of waste with different characteristics. The estimation of emissions and consumptions associated with each waste fraction in these studies presented allocation problems. Waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration is a clear example in which municipal solid waste (MSW), comprising many types of materials, is processed to produce several outputs. This paper investigates an approach to better understand incineration processes in Spain and Portugal by applying a multi-input/output allocation model. The application of this model enabled predictions of WTE inputs and outputs, including the consumption of ancillary materials and combustibles, air emissions, solid wastes, and the energy produced during the combustion of each waste fraction. © The Author(s) 2014.

  14. Waste glass corrosion modeling: Comparison with experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourcier, W.L.

    1993-11-01

    A chemical model of glass corrosion will be used to predict the rates of release of radionuclides from borosilicate glass waste forms in high-level waste repositories. The model will be used both to calculate the rate of degradation of the glass, and also to predict the effects of chemical interactions between the glass and repository materials such as spent fuel, canister and container materials, backfill, cements, grouts, and others. Coupling between the degradation processes affecting all these materials is expected. Models for borosilicate glass dissolution must account for the processes of (1) kinetically-controlled network dissolution, (2) precipitation of secondary phases, (3) ion exchange, (4) rate-limiting diffusive transport of silica through a hydrous surface reaction layer, and (5) specific glass surface interactions with dissolved cations and anions. Current long-term corrosion models for borosilicate glass employ a rate equation consistent with transition state theory embodied in a geochemical reaction-path modeling program that calculates aqueous phase speciation and mineral precipitation/dissolution. These models are currently under development. Future experimental and modeling work to better quantify the rate-controlling processes and validate these models are necessary before the models can be used in repository performance assessment calculations

  15. GENERAL REQUIREMENTS FOR SIMULATION MODELS IN WASTE MANAGEMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Ian; Kossik, Rick; Voss, Charlie

    2003-01-01

    Most waste management activities are decided upon and carried out in a public or semi-public arena, typically involving the waste management organization, one or more regulators, and often other stakeholders and members of the public. In these environments, simulation modeling can be a powerful tool in reaching a consensus on the best path forward, but only if the models that are developed are understood and accepted by all of the parties involved. These requirements for understanding and acceptance of the models constrain the appropriate software and model development procedures that are employed. This paper discusses requirements for both simulation software and for the models that are developed using the software. Requirements for the software include transparency, accessibility, flexibility, extensibility, quality assurance, ability to do discrete and/or continuous simulation, and efficiency. Requirements for the models that are developed include traceability, transparency, credibility/validity, and quality control. The paper discusses these requirements with specific reference to the requirements for performance assessment models that are used for predicting the long-term safety of waste disposal facilities, such as the proposed Yucca Mountain repository

  16. Thermochemical modeling of nuclear waste glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spear, K.E.; Besmann, T.M.; Beahm, E.C.

    1998-06-01

    The development of assessed and consistent phase equilibria and thermodynamic data for major glass constituents used to incorporate high-level nuclear waste is discussed in this paper. The initial research has included the binary Na 2 O-SiO 2 , Na 2 O-Al 2 O 3 , and SiO 2 -Al 2 O 3 systems. The nuclear waste glass is assumed to be a supercooled liquid containing the constituents in the glass at temperatures of interest for nuclear waste storage. Thermodynamic data for the liquid solutions were derived from mathematical comparisons of phase diagram information and the thermodynamic data available for crystalline solid phases. An associate model is used to describe the liquid solution phases. Utilizing phase diagram information provides very stringent limits on the relative thermodynamic stabilities of all phases which exist in a given system

  17. Scientific basis for long-term prediction of waste-form performance under repository conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendel, J.E.

    1982-10-01

    This paper presents an overview of the fundamental principles involved in predicting long-term performance of waste forms by the as-low-as-reasonably-achievable approach. Repository conditions which make up the waste-form environment, the aging of the waste form, the important radionuclides in the waste form, the chemistry of repository fluids, and multicomponent interactions testing were considered in order to describe these principles. The need for confidence limits on the prediction of waste-form performance and ways of achieving a definition of the confidence limits are discussed

  18. Prediction of boiling points of some organic compounds to be used in volume reduction of liquid radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helal, N.L.; Ezz el-Din, M.R.

    2004-01-01

    Boiling points determination may help in the evaporation process used to solidify high-level liquid wastes and to reduce the volume of wastes that require disposal. The problem that always encountered is how to choose an appropriate method to determine the boiling points of the liquid wastes which will be able to solve. We introduce this work with the aim to use mathematical descriptors and their applications in predicting boiling points essential for the evaporation process. This work was applied for diverse database of two sets of chemicals that may exist in radioactive wastes. The first set was 59 alcohols and amines (group a) and the second was 11 aniline compounds (group b). The results show that the used mathematical descriptors give a reasonable predictive model for the diverse sets of molecules

  19. An approach to thermochemical modeling of nuclear waste glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besmann, T.M.; Beahm, E.C.; Spear, K.E.

    1998-01-01

    This initial work is aimed at developing a basic understanding of the phase equilibria and solid solution behavior of the constituents of waste glass. Current, experimentally determined values are less than desirable since they depend on measurement of the leach rate under non-realistic conditions designed to accelerate processes that occur on a geologic time scale. The often-used assumption that the activity of a species is either unity or equal to the overall concentration of the metal can also yield misleading results. The associate species model, a recent development in thermochemical modeling, will be applied to these systems to more accurately predict chemical activities in such complex systems as waste glasses

  20. Pyrolysis model for an alpha waste incinerator prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orloff, D.I.

    1979-01-01

    The development of a theoretical model of the pyrolysis stage of a Savnnah River Laboratory prototype alpha waste incinerator is discussed. pyrolysis rates for single-component porous bed of Teflon (registered trademark of Du Pont de Nemours and Co.) have been measured on a bench-scale furnace. Experimental pyrolysis rates compare favorably to the predictions of a quasisteady regression model. In addition, the pyrolysis rate is shown to be a weak function of the thermal diffusivity of the porous polymer bed. 13 refs

  1. Pyrolysis model for an alpha waste incinerator prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orloff, D.I.

    1978-01-01

    The development of a theoretical model of the pyrolysis stage of an SRL prototype alpha waste incinerator is discussed. Pyrolysis rates for single component porous beds of Teflon (Registered trademark of Du Pont) and natural rubber have been measured on a bench-scale furnace. Experimental pyrolysis rates compare favorably to the predictions of a quasi-steady regression model. In addition, the pyrolysis rate is shown to be a weak function of the thermal diffusivity of the porous polymer bed. As a consequence, pyrolysis is controlled by thermal degradation kinetics rather than by diffusion or conduction

  2. Low-level radioactive waste source term model development and testing: Topical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.M.; Kempf, C.R.; Suen, C.J.; Mughabghab, S.M.

    1988-08-01

    The Low-Level Waste Source Term Evaluation Project has the objective to develop a system model capable of predicting radionuclide release rates from a shallow land burial facility. The previous topical report for this project discussed the framework and methodology for developing a system model and divided the problem into four compartments: water flow, container degradation, waste form leaching, and radionuclide transport. Each of these compartments is described by submodels which will be coupled into the system model. From February 1987 to March 1988, computer models have been selected to predict water flow (FEMWATER) and radionuclide transport (FEMWASTE) and separate models have been developed to predict pitting corrosion of steel containers and leaching from porous waste forms contained in corrodible containers. This report discusses each of the models in detail and presents results obtained from applying the models to shallow land burial trenches over a range of expected conditions. 68 refs., 34 figs., 14 tabs

  3. Modeling VOC transport in simulated waste drums

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liekhus, K.J.; Gresham, G.L.; Peterson, E.S.; Rae, C.; Hotz, N.J.; Connolly, M.J.

    1993-06-01

    A volatile organic compound (VOC) transport model has been developed to describe unsteady-state VOC permeation and diffusion within a waste drum. Model equations account for three primary mechanisms for VOC transport from a void volume within the drum. These mechanisms are VOC permeation across a polymer boundary, VOC diffusion across an opening in a volume boundary, and VOC solubilization in a polymer boundary. A series of lab-scale experiments was performed in which the VOC concentration was measured in simulated waste drums under different conditions. A lab-scale simulated waste drum consisted of a sized-down 55-gal metal drum containing a modified rigid polyethylene drum liner. Four polyethylene bags were sealed inside a large polyethylene bag, supported by a wire cage, and placed inside the drum liner. The small bags were filled with VOC-air gas mixture and the VOC concentration was measured throughout the drum over a period of time. Test variables included the type of VOC-air gas mixtures introduced into the small bags, the small bag closure type, and the presence or absence of a variable external heat source. Model results were calculated for those trials where the VOC permeability had been measured. Permeabilities for five VOCs [methylene chloride, 1,1,2-trichloro-1,2,2-trifluoroethane (Freon-113), 1,1,1-trichloroethane, carbon tetrachloride, and trichloroethylene] were measured across a polyethylene bag. Comparison of model and experimental results of VOC concentration as a function of time indicate that model accurately accounts for significant VOC transport mechanisms in a lab-scale waste drum

  4. A model of gas generation and transport within TRU [transuranic] waste drums

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, F.G. III.

    1987-01-01

    Gas generation from the radiolytic decomposition of organic material contaminated with plutonium is modeled. Concentrations of gas throughout the waste drum are determined using a diffusional transport model. The model accurately reproduces experimentally measured gas concentrations. With polyethylene waste in unvented drums, the model predicts that hydrogen gas can accumulate to concentrations greater than 4 mole percent (lower flammable limit) with about 5 Ci of plutonium. Polyethylene provides a worst case for combustible waste material. If the drum liner is punctured and a carbon composite filter vent is installed in the drum lid, the plutonium loading can be increased to 240 Ci without generating flammable gas mixtures. 5 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  5. Conceptual models for waste tank mechanistic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allemann, R.T.; Antoniak, Z.I.; Eyler, L.L.; Liljegren, L.M.; Roberts, J.S.

    1992-02-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is conducting a study for Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), a contractor for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The purpose of the work is to study possible mechanisms and fluid dynamics contributing to the periodic release of gases from double-shell waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington. This interim report emphasizing the modeling work follows two other interim reports, Mechanistic Analysis of Double-Shell Tank Gas Release Progress Report -- November 1990 and Collection and Analysis of Existing Data for Waste Tank Mechanistic Analysis Progress Report -- December 1990, that emphasized data correlation and mechanisms. The approach in this study has been to assemble and compile data that are pertinent to the mechanisms, analyze the data, evaluate physical properties and parameters, evaluate hypothetical mechanisms, and develop mathematical models of mechanisms

  6. Two-phase plate-fin heat exchanger modeling for waste heat recovery systems in diesel engines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feru, E.; Jager, de A.G.; Willems, F.P.T.; Steinbuch, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the modeling and model validation for a modular two-phase heat exchanger that recovers energy in heavy-duty diesel engines. The model is developed for temperature and vapor quality prediction and for control design of the waste heat recovery system. In the studied waste heat

  7. Coupling model of aerobic waste degradation considering temperature, initial moisture content and air injection volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jun; Liu, Lei; Ge, Sai; Xue, Qiang; Li, Jiangshan; Wan, Yong; Hui, Xinminnan

    2018-03-01

    A quantitative description of aerobic waste degradation is important in evaluating landfill waste stability and economic management. This research aimed to develop a coupling model to predict the degree of aerobic waste degradation. On the basis of the first-order kinetic equation and the law of conservation of mass, we first developed the coupling model of aerobic waste degradation that considered temperature, initial moisture content and air injection volume to simulate and predict the chemical oxygen demand in the leachate. Three different laboratory experiments on aerobic waste degradation were simulated to test the model applicability. Parameter sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the reliability of parameters. The coupling model can simulate aerobic waste degradation, and the obtained simulation agreed with the corresponding results of the experiment. Comparison of the experiment and simulation demonstrated that the coupling model is a new approach to predict aerobic waste degradation and can be considered as the basis for selecting the economic air injection volume and appropriate management in the future.

  8. A NEW WASTE CLASSIFYING MODEL: HOW WASTE CLASSIFICATION CAN BECOME MORE OBJECTIVE?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burcea Stefan Gabriel

    2015-07-01

    documents available in the virtual space, on the websites of certain international organizations involved in the wide and complex issue of waste management. The second part of the paper contains a proposal classification model with four main criteria in order to make waste classification a more objective process. The new classification model has the main role of transforming the traditional patterns of waste classification into an objective waste classification system and a second role of eliminating the strong contextuality of the actual waste classification models.

  9. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database User's Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for using Version 1.4 of the SWPM database: system requirements and preparation, entering and maintaining data, and performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions and does not Provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established

  10. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  11. Electrochemical Corrosion Studies for Modeling Metallic Waste Form Release Rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poineau, Frederic; Tamalis, Dimitri

    2016-01-01

    The isotope 99 Tc is an important fission product generated from nuclear power production. Because of its long half-life (t 1/2 = 2.13 ∙ 105 years) and beta-radiotoxicity (β - = 292 keV), it is a major concern in the long-term management of spent nuclear fuel. In the spent nuclear fuel, Tc is present as an alloy with Mo, Ru, Rh, and Pd called the epsilon-phase, the relative amount of which increases with fuel burn-up. In some separation schemes for spent nuclear fuel, Tc would be separated from the spent fuel and disposed of in a durable waste form. Technetium waste forms under consideration include metallic alloys, oxide ceramics and borosilicate glass. In the development of a metallic waste form, after separation from the spent fuel, Tc would be converted to the metal, incorporated into an alloy and the resulting waste form stored in a repository. Metallic alloys under consideration include Tc–Zr alloys, Tc–stainless steel alloys and Tc–Inconel alloys (Inconel is an alloy of Ni, Cr and iron which is resistant to corrosion). To predict the long-term behavior of the metallic Tc waste form, understanding the corrosion properties of Tc metal and Tc alloys in various chemical environments is needed, but efforts to model the behavior of Tc metallic alloys are limited. One parameter that should also be considered in predicting the long-term behavior of the Tc waste form is the ingrowth of stable Ru that occurs from the radioactive decay of 99 Tc ( 99 Tc → 99 Ru + β - ). After a geological period of time, significant amounts of Ru will be present in the Tc and may affect its corrosion properties. Studying the effect of Ru on the corrosion behavior of Tc is also of importance. In this context, we studied the electrochemical behavior of Tc metal, Tc-Ni alloys (to model Tc-Inconel alloy) and Tc-Ru alloys in acidic media. The study of Tc-U alloys has also been performed in order to better understand the nature of Tc in metallic spent fuel. Computational modeling

  12. Electrochemical Corrosion Studies for Modeling Metallic Waste Form Release Rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poineau, Frederic [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Tamalis, Dimitri [Florida Memorial Univ., Miami Gardens, FL (United States)

    2016-08-01

    The isotope 99Tc is an important fission product generated from nuclear power production. Because of its long half-life (t1/2 = 2.13 ∙ 105 years) and beta-radiotoxicity (β⁻ = 292 keV), it is a major concern in the long-term management of spent nuclear fuel. In the spent nuclear fuel, Tc is present as an alloy with Mo, Ru, Rh, and Pd called the epsilon-phase, the relative amount of which increases with fuel burn-up. In some separation schemes for spent nuclear fuel, Tc would be separated from the spent fuel and disposed of in a durable waste form. Technetium waste forms under consideration include metallic alloys, oxide ceramics and borosilicate glass. In the development of a metallic waste form, after separation from the spent fuel, Tc would be converted to the metal, incorporated into an alloy and the resulting waste form stored in a repository. Metallic alloys under consideration include Tc–Zr alloys, Tc–stainless steel alloys and Tc–Inconel alloys (Inconel is an alloy of Ni, Cr and iron which is resistant to corrosion). To predict the long-term behavior of the metallic Tc waste form, understanding the corrosion properties of Tc metal and Tc alloys in various chemical environments is needed, but efforts to model the behavior of Tc metallic alloys are limited. One parameter that should also be considered in predicting the long-term behavior of the Tc waste form is the ingrowth of stable Ru that occurs from the radioactive decay of 99Tc (99Tc → 99Ru + β⁻). After a geological period of time, significant amounts of Ru will be present in the Tc and may affect its corrosion properties. Studying the effect of Ru on the corrosion behavior of Tc is also of importance. In this context, we studied the electrochemical behavior of Tc metal, Tc-Ni alloys (to model Tc-Inconel alloy) and Tc-Ru alloys in acidic media. The study of Tc-U alloys has also been performed in order to better understand the

  13. Preliminary corrosion models for BWIP [Basalt Waste Isolation Project] canister materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fish, R.L.; Anantatmula, R.P.

    1983-01-01

    Waste package development for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project (BWIP) requires the generation of materials degradation data under repository relevant conditions. These data are used to develop predictive models for the behavior of each component of waste package. The component models are exercised in performance analyses to optimize the waste package design. This document presents all repository relevant canister materials corrosion data that the BWIP and others have developed to date, describes the methodology used to develop preliminary corrosion models and provides the mathematical description of the models for both low carbon steel and Fe9Cr1Mo steel. Example environment/temperature history and model application calculations are presented to aid in understanding the models. The models are preliminary in nature and will be updated as additional corrosion data become available. 6 refs., 5 tabs

  14. Operational Limitations of Arctic Waste Stabilization Ponds: Insights from Modeling Oxygen Dynamics and Carbon Removal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ragush, Colin M.; Gentleman, Wendy C.; Hansen, Lisbeth Truelstrup

    2018-01-01

    Presented here is a mechanistic model of the biological dynamics of the photic zone of a single-cell arctic waste stabilization pond (WSP) for the prediction of oxygen concentration and the removal of oxygen-demanding substances. The model is an exploratory model to assess the limiting environmen...

  15. A burnout prediction model based around char morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Wu; E. Lester; M. Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). Nottingham Energy and Fuel Centre

    2005-07-01

    Poor burnout in a coal-fired power plant has marked penalties in the form of reduced energy efficiency and elevated waste material that can not be utilized. The prediction of coal combustion behaviour in a furnace is of great significance in providing valuable information not only for process optimization but also for coal buyers in the international market. Coal combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about burnout behaviour and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content, particle size and assumed char porosity in order to make a burnout prediction. This paper presents a new model called the Char Burnout Model (ChB) that also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The model can use data input from one of two sources. Both sources are derived from image analysis techniques. The first from individual analysis and characterization of real char types using an automated program. The second from predicted char types based on data collected during the automated image analysis of coal particles. Modelling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model and burnout data from re-firing the chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen across several residence times. An improved agreement between ChB model and DTF experimental data proved that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models can improve model predictions. 27 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  16. Numerical modeling of the geomechanical response of a rock mass to a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, M.P.; St John, C.M.; Hocking, G.

    1979-06-01

    Geotechnical numerical models capable of predicting the thermomechanical response and groundwater movements around an underground radioactive waste repository are vital to the success of the nuclear waste disposal program. In the absence of directly related engineering experience, the design, risk assessment, and licensing procedures of a repository will be reliant on predictions made using such models. This paper reviews models being used to assist in repository design and summarizes the results of a recent parametric study of underground disposal in basaltic rocks. On the basis of preliminary site data, it is concluded that the allowable areal density of heat-generating waste will be controlled by the stability of placement rooms and the boreholes in which waste canisters are placed. Regional effects including thermally induced upward groundwater flow, appear to present less severe problems

  17. Waste generated in high-rise buildings construction: a quantification model based on statistical multiple regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parisi Kern, Andrea; Ferreira Dias, Michele; Piva Kulakowski, Marlova; Paulo Gomes, Luciana

    2015-05-01

    Reducing construction waste is becoming a key environmental issue in the construction industry. The quantification of waste generation rates in the construction sector is an invaluable management tool in supporting mitigation actions. However, the quantification of waste can be a difficult process because of the specific characteristics and the wide range of materials used in different construction projects. Large variations are observed in the methods used to predict the amount of waste generated because of the range of variables involved in construction processes and the different contexts in which these methods are employed. This paper proposes a statistical model to determine the amount of waste generated in the construction of high-rise buildings by assessing the influence of design process and production system, often mentioned as the major culprits behind the generation of waste in construction. Multiple regression was used to conduct a case study based on multiple sources of data of eighteen residential buildings. The resulting statistical model produced dependent (i.e. amount of waste generated) and independent variables associated with the design and the production system used. The best regression model obtained from the sample data resulted in an adjusted R(2) value of 0.694, which means that it predicts approximately 69% of the factors involved in the generation of waste in similar constructions. Most independent variables showed a low determination coefficient when assessed in isolation, which emphasizes the importance of assessing their joint influence on the response (dependent) variable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Biosphere models for deep waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olyslaegers, G.

    2005-01-01

    The management of the radioactive waste requires the implementation of disposal systems that ensure an adequate degree of isolation of the radioactivity from man and the environment. Because there are still a lot of uncertainties and a lack of consensus with respect to the importance of the exposure pathways of man, a project BioMoSA (Biosphere Models for Safety Assessment) was elaborated in the Fifth Framework Programme of EURATOM). It aimed at improving the scientific basis for the application of biosphere models in the framework of long-term safety studies for radioactive waste disposal facilities. The section radiological evaluations of SCK-CEN took part in the BioMoSA project. n the BioMoSA project, the reference biosphere methodology developed in the IAEA programme BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment methods) is implemented). We used this methodology in order to increase the transparency of biosphere modelling; t evaluate the importance of the different radionuclides and pathways, and to enhance public confidence in the assessment of potential radiological dose to population groups far into the future. Five European locations, covering a wide range of environmental and agricultural conditions are described and characterised. Each participant developed a specific biosphere model for their site. In order to achieve a consistency in this model derivation, a staged approach has been followed. Successively the biosphere is described and conceptual, mathematical and numerical models are constructed. For each of the locations site-specific parameters are selected. In the project, we had the specific task to make a comparison between the model results generated by the different participants. Results from these studies are presented and discussed

  19. Modeling acid mine drainage in waste rock dumps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefebvre, R. [INRS, Quebec (Canada)

    1995-03-01

    Acid mine drainage (AMD) results from the oxidation of sulfides present in mine wastes. The acidity generated by these reactions creates conditions under which metals can be leached and represent a threat for surface and ground waters. Even though leachate collection and neutralization are used to treat the problem, the industry is looking for methods to predict and prevent the generation of AMD at new sites and control methods for sites already producing AMD. Waste rock dumps are generally very large accumulations of barren rocks extracted from open pits to access ore bodies. These rocks contain sulfides, most commonly pyrite, and often generate AMD at rates much higher than in mine tailings which are fine grained by-products of milling operations. Numerous coupled physical processes are involved in AMD production in waste rocks. Sulfide oxidation reactions are strongly exothermic and temperatures beyond 70{degrees}C have been measured in some dumps. That heat is transfered by conduction and fluid advection. Dumps have thick partly saturated zones through which gases flow under thermal gradients and water infiltrates. Oxygen is required by the oxidation reactions and is supplied by diffusion and advection. The reaction products are carried in solution in very concentrated leachates. Numerical modeling of AMD aims to (1) provide a better understanding of the physical processes involved in AMD, (2) allow the integration of available waste rock characterization data, (3) indicate new data or studies which are required to fill the gaps in our quantitative understanding of AMD processes, and (4) supply a tool for the prediction of AMD production, taking into account the impact of control methods. These objectives can only be met through sustained research efforts. This study is part of a wider research effort which as been on-going at La Mine Doyon since 1991.

  20. Hydrogen modelling for vitrified wastes repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voinis, S.; Breton, J.

    1992-01-01

    Safety assessments for High Level Wastes (HLW) have led ANDRA (Agence Nationale pour la gestion des Dechets Radioactifs) to study the occurrence of a gas production rate in a repository. This paper deals with the description of an analytical model used for the gas production rate assessment and brings us the first results. The geometry used is restrained to a single borehole associated with a drift in a crystalline formation. Different concepts were studied in this assessment. First results have been obtained. For example, in the case of a permeable plug, the saturation time of the borehole is about 300 years. 5 refs., 5 figs

  1. Conceptual Model for Systematic Construction Waste Management

    OpenAIRE

    Abd Rahim Mohd Hilmi Izwan; Kasim Narimah

    2017-01-01

    Development of the construction industry generated construction waste which can contribute towards environmental issues. Weaknesses of compliance in construction waste management especially in construction site have also contributed to the big issues of waste generated in landfills and illegal dumping area. This gives sign that construction projects are needed a systematic construction waste management. To date, a comprehensive criteria of construction waste management, particularly for const...

  2. Lean waste classification model to support the sustainable operational practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutrisno, A.; Vanany, I.; Gunawan, I.; Asjad, M.

    2018-04-01

    Driven by growing pressure for a more sustainable operational practice, improvement on the classification of non-value added (waste) is one of the prerequisites to realize sustainability of a firm. While the use of the 7 (seven) types of the Ohno model now becoming a versatile tool to reveal the lean waste occurrence. In many recent investigations, the use of the Seven Waste model of Ohno is insufficient to cope with the types of waste occurred in industrial practices at various application levels. Intended to a narrowing down this limitation, this paper presented an improved waste classification model based on survey to recent studies discussing on waste at various operational stages. Implications on the waste classification model to the body of knowledge and industrial practices are provided.

  3. Geothermal reservoir simulation to enhance confidence in predictions for nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Pruess, Karsten; O'Sullivan, Michael J.; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

    2002-01-01

    Numerical simulation of geothermal reservoirs is useful and necessary in understanding and evaluating reservoir structure and behavior, designing field development, and predicting performance. Models vary in complexity depending on processes considered, heterogeneity, data availability, and study objectives. They are evaluated using computer codes written and tested to study single and multiphase flow and transport under nonisothermal conditions. Many flow and heat transfer processes modeled in geothermal reservoirs are expected to occur in anthropogenic thermal (AT) systems created by geologic disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste. We examine and compare geothermal systems and the AT system expected at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and their modeling. Time frames and spatial scales are similar in both systems, but increased precision is necessary for modeling the AT system, because flow through specific repository locations will affect long-term ability radionuclide retention. Geothermal modeling experience has generated a methodology, used in the AT modeling for Yucca Mountain, yielding good predictive results if sufficient reliable data are available and an experienced modeler is involved. Codes used in geothermal and AT modeling have been tested extensively and successfully on a variety of analytical and laboratory problems

  4. Establishment the code for prediction of waste volume on NPP decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, W. H.; Park, S. K.; Choi, Y. D.; Kim, I. S.; Moon, J. K.

    2013-01-01

    -2 and developed DEMOS(DEcommissioning MOdeling System) and DEPES(DEcommissioning Process Establish System) using these data. These systems may be able to help to establish decommissioning strategy of nuclear power plant. We tried to apply research reactor data to OPR-1000 which is commercial nuclear power plant. But code for research reactor was not consistent when applying to nuclear power plant. The decommissioning activity of nuclear power plant is basically performed by the unit facility or room. In order to apply research reactor data, each WBS code is needed to apply to the object of each facility. This means that one FAC code may have several WBS codes. However, current codes in DECOMMIS are hard to map WBS code to FAC code one by one, and are specialized to research reactor. So it is difficult to apply to nuclear power plant directly. In order to solve this problem, the common code that can be adapted to commercial nuclear power plant as well as to research reactor is required. It may be inferred from the mapping data in the case of mismatching, or it can be applied with some modifications in the case of similar facility. In this paper, the establishment method of the code which uses the research reactor data in decommissioning project of nuclear power plant was studied. Method for prediction of the decommissioning waste volume was discussed on the basis of the domestic nuclear power plant, OPR-1000. Decommissioning experience is very important to apply to the estimation of decommissioning waste volume. So method for the estimation of decommissioning waste volume using common code that link OPR-1000 and KRR-2 was suggested. This research result will be helpful to reliable estimation of decommissioning waste volume and further estimation of the decommissioning cost and establishment of decommissioning strategies

  5. Prediction of cladding life in waste package environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCoy, J.K.; Doering, T.W.

    1994-01-01

    Fuel cladding can potentially provide longer containment or slower release of radionuclides from spent fuel after geologic disposal. To predict the amount of benefit that cladding can provide, we surveyed degradation modes and developed a model for creep rupture by diffusion-controlled cavity growth, the mechanism that several authors have concluded is the most important. In this mechanism, voids nucleate on the grain boundaries and grow by diffusion of vacancies along the grain boundaries to the voids. When a certain fraction of the grain boundary area is covered with voids, the material fails. An analytic expression for cladding lifetime is developed. Besides materials constants, the predicted lifetime depends on the temperature history, the hoop stress in the cladding, the spacing between void nuclei, and the micro-structure. The inclusion of microstructure is a significant new feature of the model; this feature is used to help avoid excessive conservatism. The model is applied in a sample calculation for disposal of spent fuel, and the practice of using temperature limits to evaluate repository designs is examined

  6. Measurements and models for hazardous chemical and mixed wastes. 1998 annual progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holcomb, C.; Louie, B.; Mullins, M.E.; Outcalt, S.L.; Rogers, T.N.; Watts, L.

    1998-01-01

    'Aqueous waste of various chemical compositions constitutes a significant fraction of the total waste produced by industry in the US. A large quantity of the waste generated by the US chemical process industry is waste water. In addition, the majority of the waste inventory at DoE sites previously used for nuclear weapons production is aqueous waste. Large quantities of additional aqueous waste are expected to be generated during the clean-up of those sites. In order to effectively treat, safely handle, and properly dispose of these wastes, accurate and comprehensive knowledge of basic thermophysical property information is paramount. This knowledge will lead to huge savings by aiding in the design and optimization of treatment and disposal processes. The main objectives of this project are: Develop and validate models that accurately predict the phase equilibria and thermodynamic properties of hazardous aqueous systems necessary for the safe handling and successful design of separation and treatment processes for hazardous chemical and mixed wastes. Accurately measure the phase equilibria and thermodynamic properties of a representative system (water + acetone + isopropyl alcohol + sodium nitrate) over the applicable ranges of temperature, pressure, and composition to provide the pure component, binary, ternary, and quaternary experimental data required for model development. As of May, 1998, nine months into the first year of a three year project, the authors have made significant progress in the database development, have begun testing the models, and have been performance testing the apparatus on the pure components.'

  7. Prediction of municipal solid waste generation using artificial neural network approach enhanced by structural break analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamović, Vladimir M; Antanasijević, Davor Z; Ristić, Mirjana Đ; Perić-Grujić, Aleksandra A; Pocajt, Viktor V

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a general regression neural network (GRNN) model for the prediction of annual municipal solid waste (MSW) generation at the national level for 44 countries of different size, population and economic development level. Proper modelling of MSW generation is essential for the planning of MSW management system as well as for the simulation of various environmental impact scenarios. The main objective of this work was to examine the potential influence of economy crisis (global or local) on the forecast of MSW generation obtained by the GRNN model. The existence of the so-called structural breaks that occur because of the economic crisis in the studied period (2000-2012) for each country was determined and confirmed using the Chow test and Quandt-Andrews test. Two GRNN models, one which did not take into account the influence of the economic crisis (GRNN) and another one which did (SB-GRNN), were developed. The novelty of the applied method is that it uses broadly available social, economic and demographic indicators and indicators of sustainability, together with GRNN and structural break testing for the prediction of MSW generation at the national level. The obtained results demonstrate that the SB-GRNN model provide more accurate predictions than the model which neglected structural breaks, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.0 % compared to 6.7 % generated by the GRNN model. The proposed model enhanced with structural breaks can be a viable alternative for a more accurate prediction of MSW generation at the national level, especially for developing countries for which a lack of MSW data is notable.

  8. Stochastic models for predicting pitting corrosion damage of HLRW containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henshall, G.A.

    1991-10-01

    Stochastic models for predicting aqueous pitting corrosion damage of high-level radioactive-waste containers are described. These models could be used to predict the time required for the first pit to penetrate a container and the increase in the number of breaches at later times, both of which would be useful in the repository system performance analysis. Monte Carlo implementations of the stochastic models are described, and predictions of induction time, survival probability and pit depth distributions are presented. These results suggest that the pit nucleation probability decreases with exposure time and that pit growth may be a stochastic process. The advantages and disadvantages of the stochastic approach, methods for modeling the effects of environment, and plans for future work are discussed

  9. Verification and improvement of a predictive model for radionuclide migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.; Benson, L.V.; Carnahan, C.L.

    1982-01-01

    Prediction of the rates of migration of contaminant chemical species in groundwater flowing through toxic waste repositories is essential to the assessment of a repository's capability of meeting standards for release rates. A large number of chemical transport models, of varying degrees of complexity, have been devised for the purpose of providing this predictive capability. In general, the transport of dissolved chemical species through a water-saturated porous medium is influenced by convection, diffusion/dispersion, sorption, formation of complexes in the aqueous phase, and chemical precipitation. The reliability of predictions made with the models which omit certain of these processes is difficult to assess. A numerical model, CHEMTRN, has been developed to determine which chemical processes govern radionuclide migration. CHEMTRN builds on a model called MCCTM developed previously by Lichtner and Benson

  10. EASEWASTE-life cycle modeling capabilities for waste management technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhander, Gurbakhash Singh; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2010-01-01

    Background, Aims and Scope The management of municipal solid waste and the associated environmental impacts are subject of growing attention in industrialized countries. EU has recently strongly emphasized the role of LCA in its waste and resource strategies. The development of sustainable solid...... waste management systems applying a life-cycle perspective requires readily understandable tools for modelling the life cycle impacts of waste management systems. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the structure, functionalities and LCA modelling capabilities of the PC-based life cycle oriented...... waste management model EASEWASTE, developed at the Technical University of Denmark specifically to meet the needs of the waste system developer with the objective to evaluate the environmental performance of the various elements of existing or proposed solid waste management systems. Materials...

  11. Predicting routes of radioactive wastes moved on the US railroad system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillsman, E.L.; Johnson, P.E.; Peterson, B.E.

    1980-01-01

    One of the issues to be considered in the analysis of alternative repository sites for nuclear wastes is the pattern of shipments from reactors and other waste sources to the repository. In the United States, regulations and costs make rail shipments the preferred mode for high-level radioactive waste. The railroad network of the United States is owned by approximately 100 corporations that simultaneously compete for traffic and cooperate to move shipments that require carriage by more than one company. Because changing companies usually delays a shipment, there is a tendency to minimize the number of carriers involved in moving it. Moreover, when several carriers are required, the originating company (specified by the shipper) tends to retain the shipment on its portion of the network. These characteristics are nearly unique among the world's rail systems, and they must be recognized in any model of paths of future shipments through the network. This paper describes the development of a rail routing program that can be applied to the movement of radioactive materials throughout the United States. Shipments can be initiated at a specific location on a specific railroad. A route can be generated and displayed on a map of the United States. The particular route generated depends upon the emphasis placed on various classes of rail lines. Demonstration routings illustrate predicted routes of normal freight shipments, the effect of blocking passage through selected cities, and the effect that the existence of independent railroad companies can have on the patterns of shipments

  12. Modelling the Long Term Leaching Behaviour of 137CS from Different Stabilized Waste Matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Kamash, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Leaching characteristics of ''1''3''7Cs from immobilized waste matrices in different cement-based grouts have been assessed to investigate the influence of the additives on the leaching behavior of the solid waste matrices. The International Atomic Energy's Agency (IAEA) standard leach method has been employed to study the leach pattern of 137 Cs radionuclide from the immobilized waste form. The examination of the leaching data revealed that clay additives reduces the leach rate for the studied radionuclide. The controlling leaching mechanism has been studied and the transport parameters were calculated for all studied waste matrices. Simplified analytical models have been derived to predict the Cumulative Leach Fraction (CLF) of radionuclides over the studied experimental period. These simplified research models could be used as a screening tool to assess the performance of the waste matrix under repository conditions. (author)

  13. Modeling Hydrogen Generation Rates in the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camaioni, Donald M.; Bryan, Samuel A.; Hallen, Richard T.; Sherwood, David J.; Stock, Leon M.

    2004-03-29

    This presentation describes a project in which Hanford Site and Environmental Management Science Program investigators addressed issues concerning hydrogen generation rates in the Hanford waste treatment and immobilization plant. The hydrogen generation rates of radioactive wastes must be estimated to provide for safe operations. While an existing model satisfactorily predicts rates for quiescent wastes in Hanford underground storage tanks, pretreatment operations will alter the conditions and chemical composition of these wastes. Review of the treatment process flowsheet identified specific issues requiring study to ascertain whether the model would provide conservative values for waste streams in the plant. These include effects of adding hydroxide ion, alpha radiolysis, saturation with air (oxygen) from pulse-jet mixing, treatment with potassium permanganate, organic compounds from degraded ion exchange resins and addition of glass-former chemicals. The effects were systematically investigated through literature review, technical analyses and experimental work.

  14. Solid Waste Biodegradation Enhancements and the Evaluation of Analytical Methods Used to Predict Waste Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Kelly, Ryan J.

    2002-01-01

    Conventional landfills are built to dispose of the increasing amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated each year. A relatively new type of landfill, called a bioreactor landfill, is designed to optimize the biodegradation of the contained waste to stabilized products. Landfills with stabilized waste pose little threat to the environment from ozone depleting gases and groundwater contamination. Limited research has been done to determine the importance of biodegradation enhancement tech...

  15. Towards optimization of nuclear waste glass: Constraints, property models, and waste loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrma, P.

    1994-04-01

    Vitrification of both low- and high-level wastes from 177 tanks at Hanford poses a great challenge to glass makers, whose task is to formulate a system of glasses that are acceptable to the federal repository for disposal. The enormous quantity of the waste requires a glass product of the lowest possible volume. The incomplete knowledge of waste composition, its variability, and lack of an appropriate vitrification technology further complicates this difficult task. A simple relationship between the waste loading and the waste glass volume is presented and applied to the predominantly refractory (usually high-activity) and predominantly alkaline (usually low-activity) waste types. Three factors that limit waste loading are discussed, namely product acceptability, melter processing, and model validity. Glass formulation and optimization problems are identified and a broader approach to uncertainties is suggested

  16. Modeling Organic Contaminant Desorption from Municipal Solid Waste Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knappe, D. R.; Wu, B.; Barlaz, M. A.

    2002-12-01

    Approximately 25% of the sites on the National Priority List (NPL) of Superfund are municipal landfills that accepted hazardous waste. Unlined landfills typically result in groundwater contamination, and priority pollutants such as alkylbenzenes are often present. To select cost-effective risk management alternatives, better information on factors controlling the fate of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) in landfills is required. The objectives of this study were (1) to investigate the effects of HOC aging time, anaerobic sorbent decomposition, and leachate composition on HOC desorption rates, and (2) to simulate HOC desorption rates from polymers and biopolymer composites with suitable diffusion models. Experiments were conducted with individual components of municipal solid waste (MSW) including polyvinyl chloride (PVC), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), newsprint, office paper, and model food and yard waste (rabbit food). Each of the biopolymer composites (office paper, newsprint, rabbit food) was tested in both fresh and anaerobically decomposed form. To determine the effects of aging on alkylbenzene desorption rates, batch desorption tests were performed after sorbents were exposed to toluene for 30 and 250 days in flame-sealed ampules. Desorption tests showed that alkylbenzene desorption rates varied greatly among MSW components (PVC slowest, fresh rabbit food and newsprint fastest). Furthermore, desorption rates decreased as aging time increased. A single-parameter polymer diffusion model successfully described PVC and HDPE desorption data, but it failed to simulate desorption rate data for biopolymer composites. For biopolymer composites, a three-parameter biphasic polymer diffusion model was employed, which successfully simulated both the initial rapid and the subsequent slow desorption of toluene. Toluene desorption rates from MSW mixtures were predicted for typical MSW compositions in the years 1960 and 1997. For the older MSW mixture, which had a

  17. Qualitative evaluation of various models for mechanical analysis of nuclear wastes storage in brittle rocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millard, A.

    1994-01-01

    In order to appraise the large scale behaviour of high level nuclear wastes underground repositories in brittle rocks, basic models are presented and evaluated in the case of generic repository configurations. Predictive Capabilities of the models are briefly discussed. 7 figs

  18. Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

  19. Mathematical modeling of olive mill waste composting process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasiliadou, Ioanna A; Muktadirul Bari Chowdhury, Abu Khayer Md; Akratos, Christos S; Tekerlekopoulou, Athanasia G; Pavlou, Stavros; Vayenas, Dimitrios V

    2015-09-01

    The present study aimed at developing an integrated mathematical model for the composting process of olive mill waste. The multi-component model was developed to simulate the composting of three-phase olive mill solid waste with olive leaves and different materials as bulking agents. The modeling system included heat transfer, organic substrate degradation, oxygen consumption, carbon dioxide production, water content change, and biological processes. First-order kinetics were used to describe the hydrolysis of insoluble organic matter, followed by formation of biomass. Microbial biomass growth was modeled with a double-substrate limitation by hydrolyzed available organic substrate and oxygen using Monod kinetics. The inhibitory factors of temperature and moisture content were included in the system. The production and consumption of nitrogen and phosphorous were also included in the model. In order to evaluate the kinetic parameters, and to validate the model, six pilot-scale composting experiments in controlled laboratory conditions were used. Low values of hydrolysis rates were observed (0.002841/d) coinciding with the high cellulose and lignin content of the composting materials used. Model simulations were in good agreement with the experimental results. Sensitivity analysis was performed and the modeling efficiency was determined to further evaluate the model predictions. Results revealed that oxygen simulations were more sensitive on the input parameters of the model compared to those of water, temperature and insoluble organic matter. Finally, the Nash and Sutcliff index (E), showed that the experimental data of insoluble organic matter (E>0.909) and temperature (E>0.678) were better simulated than those of water. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Verifying the performance of artificial neural network and multiple linear regression in predicting the mean seasonal municipal solid waste generation rate: A case study of Fars province, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azadi, Sama; Karimi-Jashni, Ayoub

    2016-02-01

    Predicting the mass of solid waste generation plays an important role in integrated solid waste management plans. In this study, the performance of two predictive models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) was verified to predict mean Seasonal Municipal Solid Waste Generation (SMSWG) rate. The accuracy of the proposed models is illustrated through a case study of 20 cities located in Fars Province, Iran. Four performance measures, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and R were used to evaluate the performance of these models. The MLR, as a conventional model, showed poor prediction performance. On the other hand, the results indicated that the ANN model, as a non-linear model, has a higher predictive accuracy when it comes to prediction of the mean SMSWG rate. As a result, in order to develop a more cost-effective strategy for waste management in the future, the ANN model could be used to predict the mean SMSWG rate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Comparison of predicted versus measured dose rates for low-level radioactive waste cask shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macher, Martin S.

    1992-01-01

    Shippers of low-level radioactive waste must select casks which will provide sufficient shielding to keep dose rates below the federal limit of 10 mr/hr at 2 meters from the vehicle. Chem-Nuclear Systems, Inc. uses a cask selection methodology which is based on shielding analysis code predictions with an additional factor of safety applied to compensate for inhomogeneities in the waste, uncertainties in waste characterization, and inaccuracy in the calculational methods. This proven cask selection methodology is explained and suggested factors of safety are presented based on comparisons of predicted and measured dose rates. A safety factor of 2 is shown to be generally appropriate for relatively homogeneous waste and a safety factor of between 3 and 4 is shown to be generally appropriate for relatively inhomogeneous wastes. (author)

  2. Control of high level radioactive waste-glass melters - Part 5: Modeling of complex redox effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bickford, D.F.; Choi, A.S.

    1991-01-01

    Computerized thermodynamic computations are useful in predicting the sequence and products of redox reactions and in assessing process variations. The redox state of waste-glass melters is determined by balance between the reducing potential of organic compounds in the feed, and the oxidizing potential of gases above the melt, and nitrates and polyvalent elements in the waste. Semiquantitative models predicting limitations of organic content have been developed based on crucible testing. Continuous melter test results have been compared to this improved staged-thermodynamic model of redox behavior

  3. Life Cycle Costing Model for Solid Waste Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez-Sanchez, Veronica; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    To ensure sustainability of solid waste management, there is a need for cost assessment models which are consistent with environmental and social assessments. However, there is a current lack of standardized terminology and methodology to evaluate economic performances and this complicates...... LCC, e.g. waste generator, waste operator and public finances and the perspective often defines the systemboundaries of the study, e.g. waste operators often focus on her/his own cost, i.e. technology based,whereas waste generators and public finances often focus on the entire waste system, i.......e. system based. Figure 1 illustrates the proposed modeling framework that distinguishes between: a) budget cost, b) externality costs and 3) transfers and defines unit costs of each technology (per ton of input waste). Unitcosts are afterwards combined with a mass balance to calculate the technology cost...

  4. Numerical modeling of batch formation in waste incineration plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obroučka Karel

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is a mathematical description of algorithm for controlled assembly of incinerated batch of waste. The basis for formation of batch is selected parameters of incinerated waste as its calorific value or content of pollutants or the combination of both. The numerical model will allow, based on selected criteria, to compile batch of wastes which continuously follows the previous batch, which is a prerequisite for optimized operation of incinerator. The model was prepared as for waste storage in containers, as well as for waste storage in continuously refilled boxes. The mathematical model was developed into the computer program and its functionality was verified either by practical measurements or by numerical simulations. The proposed model can be used in incinerators for hazardous and municipal waste.

  5. DSEM, Radioactive Waste Disposal Site Economic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.R.

    2005-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: The Disposal Site Economic Model calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development. 2 - Method of solution: The economic models incorporate default cost data from the Conceptual Design Report (DOE/LLW-60T, June 1987), a study by Rodgers Associates Engineering Corporation. Because all costs are in constant 1986 dollars, the figures must be modified to account for inflation. Interest during construction is either capitalized for the private developer or rolled into the loan for the public developer. All capital costs during construction are depreciated over the operation life of the site using straight-line depreciation for the private sector. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of - 100 years post-operating period, 30 years operating period, 15 years pre-operating period. The model should be used with caution outside the range of 1.8 to 10.5 million cubic feet of total volume. Depreciation is not recognized with public development

  6. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  7. Sedimentary modelling and nuclear-waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Loon, A.J.

    1982-01-01

    Nuclear energy is an important source of energy. Recently a slow down is experienced in its growth rate, due to the following factors: a) the supposed shortage of uranium; b) the fear for the consequences of nuclear accident, and c) the problem of nuclear wastes. Two types of waste are distinguished: a) fission products and actinides, and b) operational waste. The United States have started a program that must lead in 1989 to the first final storage of such waste in salt. Open-pit mines and oil-well drilling are discussed as possible solutions for operational waste storage

  8. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  9. Modelling animal waste pathogen transport from agricultural land to streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandey, Pramod K; Soupir, Michelle L; Ikenberry, Charles

    2014-01-01

    The transport of animal waste pathogens from crop land to streams can potentially elevate pathogen levels in stream water. Applying animal manure into crop land as fertilizers is a common practice in developing as well as in developed countries. Manure application into the crop land, however, can cause potential human health. To control pathogen levels in ambient water bodies such as streams, improving our understanding of pathogen transport at farm scale as well as at watershed scale is required. To understand the impacts of crop land receiving animal waste as fertilizers on stream's pathogen levels, here we investigate pathogen indicator transport at watershed scale. We exploited watershed scale hydrological model to estimate the transport of pathogens from the crop land to streams. Pathogen indicator levels (i.e., E. coli levels) in the stream water were predicted. With certain assumptions, model results are reasonable. This study can be used as guidelines for developing the models for calculating the impacts of crop land's animal manure on stream water

  10. Characterization of Hanford waste and the role of historic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, B.C.; Eberlein, S.J.; Brown, T.M.; Brevick, C.H.; Angew, S.F.

    1996-02-01

    The tank waste characterization process is an integral part of the overall effort to identify, quantify and control the hazards associated with radioactive wastes stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Reservation. Characterization of the current waste tank contents through the use of waste sampling is only partly effective. The historic records must be exploited as much as possible. A model generates an estimate of the current contents of each tank, built up from the estimated volumes of each of the defined waste components. The model combines the best estimate of the waste stream composition for each of the major waste generating processes. All available waste transfer records were compiled and integrated to track waste tank fill history. The behavior of the waste materials in the tanks was modeled, based on general scientific principles augmented with specific measurement data. Sample analysis results were not used directly to generate any of the tank contents estimates, but were used to determine the values of variable parameters such as the solubility. By considering all available information first (including historical model estimates, surveillance data, and past sample analysis results), future sampling resources and other characterization efforts can best be spent on tanks that will provide the largest returns of information

  11. A model for quantifying construction waste in projects according to the European waste list.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llatas, C

    2011-06-01

    The new EU challenge is to recover 70% by weight of C&D waste in 2020. Literature reveals that one major barrier is the lack of data. Therefore, this paper presents a model which allows technicians to estimate C&D waste during the design stage in order to promote prevention and recovery. The types and quantities of CW are estimated and managed according to EU guidelines, by building elements and specifically for each project. The model would allow detection of the source of the waste and to adopt other alternative procedures which delete hazardous waste and reduce CW. Likewise, it develops a systematic structure of the construction process, a waste classification system and some analytical expressions which are based on factors. These factors depend on technology and represent a standard on site. It would allow to develop a database of waste anywhere. A Spanish case study is covered. Factors were obtained by studying over 20 dwellings. The source and types of packaging waste, remains, soil and hazardous waste were estimated in detail and were compared with other studies. Results reveal that the model can be implemented in projects and the chances of reducing and recovery C&D waste could be increased, well above the EU challenge. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    The purpose of the City of Houston`s 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA`s Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  13. A simple model of the batch electrochemical reduction of nitrate/nitrite waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingard, D.A.; Weidner, J.W.; Van Zee, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    A model of a divided parallel plate electrochemical cell operated in a batch mode for the destruction of NO 3 - /NO 2 - in alkaline waste streams is presented. The model uses boundary layer approximations at each electrode and at the separator to minimize computation time. Five competing electrochemical reactions are included at the cathode. The model uses either an explicit Runge-Kutta routine with empirically determined current efficiencies or an implicit stepping routine for each electrode if the current efficiencies are to be predicted. Tim dependent changes of the concentration, temperature, and cell voltage are predicted for constant current operation. Model predictions are compared with experimental data

  14. A coupled reaction and transport model for assessing the injection, migration and fate of waste fluids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, X.; Ortoleva, P.

    1996-01-01

    The use of reaction-transport modeling for reservoir assessment and management in the context of deep well waste injection is evaluated. The study is based on CIRF.A (Chemical Interaction of Rock and Fluid), a fully coupled multiphase flow, contaminant transport, and fluid and mineral reaction model. Although SWIFT (Sandia Waste-Isolation Flow and Transport Model) is often the numerical model of choice, it can not account for chemical reactions involving rock, wastes, and formation fluids and their effects on contaminant transport, rock permeability and porosity, and the integrity of the reservoir and confining units. CIRF.A can simulate all these processes. Two field cases of waste injection were simulated by CIRF.A. Both observation data and simulation results show mineral precipitation in one case and rock dissolution in another case. Precipitation and dissolution change rock porosity and permeability, and hence the pattern of fluid migration. The model is shown to be invaluable in analyzing near borehole and reservoir-scale effects during waste injection and predicting the 10,000 year fate of the waste plume. The benefits of using underpressured compartments as waste repositories were also demonstrated by CIRF.A simulations

  15. Remaining uncertainties in predicting long-term performance of nuclear waste glass from experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grambow, B.

    1994-01-01

    The current knowledge on the glass dissolution mechanism and the representation of glass dissolution concepts within overall repository performance assessment models are briefly summarized and uncertainties related to mechanism, radionuclide chemistry and parameters are discussed. Understanding of the major glass dissolution processes has been significantly increased in recent years. Long-term glass stability is related to the long-term maintenance of silica saturated conditions. The behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass has not been sufficiently and results do no yet allow meaningful predictions. Conserving long-term predictions of glass matrix dissolution as upper limit for radionuclide release can be made with sufficient confidence, however these estimations generally result in a situation where the barrier function of the glass is masked by the efficiency of the geologic barrier. Realistic long-term predictions may show that the borosilicate waste glass contributes to overall repository safety to a much larger extent than indicated by overconservatism. Today realistic predictions remain highly uncertain and much more research work is necessary. In particular, the long-term rate under silica saturated conditions needs to be understood and the behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass deserves more systematic investigations

  16. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  17. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  18. Predictive user modeling with actionable attributes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zliobaite, I.; Pechenizkiy, M.

    2013-01-01

    Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target

  19. Modeling by GASP-IV simulation of high-level nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurstedt, H.A. Jr.; DePorter, E.L.; Turek, J.L.; Funk, S.K.; Rasbach, C.E.

    1981-01-01

    High-level nuclear waste generated by defense-oriented and commercial nuclear energy activities are to be stored ultimately in underground repositories. Research continues on the waste-form and waste-form processing. DOE managers must coordinate the results of this research, the capacities and availability times of the permanent geologic storage repositories, and the capacities and availability times of interim storage facilities (pending availability of permanent repositories). Comprehensive and active DOE program-management information systems contain predicted generation of nuclear wastes from defense and commercial activities; milestones on research on waste-forms; and milestones on research and development, design, acquisition, and construction of facilities and repositories. A GASP IV simulation model is presented which interfaces all of these data. The model accepts alternate management decisions; relates all critical milestones, all research and development data, and the generation of waste nuclear materials; simulates the passage of time; then, predicts the impact of those alternate decisions on the availability of storage capacity for waste nuclear materials. 3 references, 3 figures

  20. Probabilistic finite element modeling of waste rollover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khaleel, M.A.; Cofer, W.F.; Al-fouqaha, A.A.

    1995-09-01

    Stratification of the wastes in many Hanford storage tanks has resulted in sludge layers which are capable of retaining gases formed by chemical and/or radiolytic reactions. As the gas is produced, the mechanisms of gas storage evolve until the resulting buoyancy in the sludge leads to instability, at which point the sludge ''rolls over'' and a significant volume of gas is suddenly released. Because the releases may contain flammable gases, these episodes of release are potentially hazardous. Mitigation techniques are desirable for more controlled releases at more frequent intervals. To aid the mitigation efforts, a methodology for predicting of sludge rollover at specific times is desired. This methodology would then provide a rational basis for the development of a schedule for the mitigation procedures. In addition, a knowledge of the sensitivity of the sludge rollovers to various physical and chemical properties within the tanks would provide direction for efforts to reduce the frequency and severity of these events. In this report, the use of probabilistic finite element analyses for computing the probability of rollover and the sensitivity of rollover probability to various parameters is described

  1. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...

  2. A mechanistic model for leaching from low-level radioactive waste packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kempf, C.R.

    1988-01-01

    The development of a waste leaching model to predict radionuclide releases from porous wastes in corrodible outer containers in unsaturated conditions and/or conditions of intermittent water flow is summarized in this paper. Three major processes have been conceptualized as necessarily participating in waste leaching: infiltration of water to the waste package; interaction of this water with the waste; and exit of radionuclide-laden water from the waste package. Through the exit point, the main features of the whole leaching process ware held in common. The departure occurs in two main ways: 1) the method of entrance of the radionuclides to leachant (i.e. part of the waste-water interaction phase outlined earlier); and 2) the mode of exit from waste form/waste package (i.e., the exit of radionuclide-laden water phase). The first branching point, which occurs in relation to 1), leads to either readily soluble species directly entering leachant on contact, or to other processes - mainly expected to be diffusion, dissolution or ion exchange, or some combination thereof

  3. Waste Reduction Model (WARM) Resources for State and Local Government/Solid Waste Planners

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief overview of how EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM) can be used by state and local government/solid waste planners. The page includes a brief summary of uses of WARM for the audience and links to other resources.

  4. Modeling Analysis For Grout Hopper Waste Tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.

    2012-01-01

    The Saltstone facility at Savannah River Site (SRS) has a grout hopper tank to provide agitator stirring of the Saltstone feed materials. The tank has about 300 gallon capacity to provide a larger working volume for the grout nuclear waste slurry to be held in case of a process upset, and it is equipped with a mechanical agitator, which is intended to keep the grout in motion and agitated so that it won't start to set up. The primary objective of the work was to evaluate the flow performance for mechanical agitators to prevent vortex pull-through for an adequate stirring of the feed materials and to estimate an agitator speed which provides acceptable flow performance with a 45 o pitched four-blade agitator. In addition, the power consumption required for the agitator operation was estimated. The modeling calculations were performed by taking two steps of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling approach. As a first step, a simple single-stage agitator model with 45 o pitched propeller blades was developed for the initial scoping analysis of the flow pattern behaviors for a range of different operating conditions. Based on the initial phase-1 results, the phase-2 model with a two-stage agitator was developed for the final performance evaluations. A series of sensitivity calculations for different designs of agitators and operating conditions have been performed to investigate the impact of key parameters on the grout hydraulic performance in a 300-gallon hopper tank. For the analysis, viscous shear was modeled by using the Bingham plastic approximation. Steady state analyses with a two-equation turbulence model were performed. All analyses were based on three-dimensional results. Recommended operational guidance was developed by using the basic concept that local shear rate profiles and flow patterns can be used as a measure of hydraulic performance and spatial stirring. Flow patterns were estimated by a Lagrangian integration technique along the flow paths

  5. Models for waste life cycle assessment: Review of technical assumptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentil, Emmanuel; Damgaard, Anders; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2010-01-01

    A number of waste life cycle assessment (LCA) models have been gradually developed since the early 1990s, in a number of countries, usually independently from each other. Large discrepancies in results have been observed among different waste LCA models, although it has also been shown that results...... from different LCA studies can be consistent. This paper is an attempt to identify, review and analyse methodologies and technical assumptions used in various parts of selected waste LCA models. Several criteria were identified, which could have significant impacts on the results......, such as the functional unit, system boundaries, waste composition and energy modelling. The modelling assumptions of waste management processes, ranging from collection, transportation, intermediate facilities, recycling, thermal treatment, biological treatment, and landfilling, are obviously critical when comparing...

  6. Modeling and low-level waste management: an interagency workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, C.A.; Stratton, L.E. (comps.)

    1980-01-01

    The interagency workshop on Modeling and Low-Level Waste Management was held on December 1-4, 1980 in Denver, Colorado. Twenty papers were presented at this meeting which consisted of three sessions. First, each agency presented its point of view concerning modeling and the need for models in low-level radioactive waste applications. Second, a larger group of more technical papers was presented by persons actively involved in model development or applications. Last of all, four workshops were held to attempt to reach a consensus among participants regarding numerous waste modeling topics. Abstracts are provided for the papers presented at this workshop.

  7. Modeling and low-level waste management: an interagency workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Stratton, L.E.

    1980-01-01

    The interagency workshop on Modeling and Low-Level Waste Management was held on December 1-4, 1980 in Denver, Colorado. Twenty papers were presented at this meeting which consisted of three sessions. First, each agency presented its point of view concerning modeling and the need for models in low-level radioactive waste applications. Second, a larger group of more technical papers was presented by persons actively involved in model development or applications. Last of all, four workshops were held to attempt to reach a consensus among participants regarding numerous waste modeling topics. Abstracts are provided for the papers presented at this workshop

  8. Robust predictions of the interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casten, R.F.; Koeln Univ.

    1994-01-01

    While most recognized for its symmetries and algebraic structure, the IBA model has other less-well-known but equally intrinsic properties which give unavoidable, parameter-free predictions. These predictions concern central aspects of low-energy nuclear collective structure. This paper outlines these ''robust'' predictions and compares them with the data

  9. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  10. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    combinations of waste recycling, biological treatment, incineration, mechanical–biological treatment and landfilling. The purpose is to compare waste management on a system level and to indentify the steps and treatments within the system contributing the most to the environmental performance of waste...... and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...

  11. A model for a national low level waste program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blankenhorn, James A.

    2009-01-01

    A national program for the management of low level waste is essential to the success of environmental clean-up, decontamination and decommissioning, current operations and future missions. The value of a national program is recognized through procedural consistency and a shared set of resources. A national program requires a clear waste definition and an understanding of waste characteristics matched against available and proposed disposal options. A national program requires the development and implementation of standards and procedures for implementing the waste hierarchy, with a specitic emphasis on waste avoidance, minimization and recycling. It requires a common set of objectives for waste characterization based on the disposal facility's waste acceptance criteria, regulatory and license requirements and performance assessments. Finally, a national waste certification program is required to ensure compliance. To facilitate and enhance the national program, a centralized generator services organization, tasked with providing technical services to the generators on behalf of the national program, is necessary. These subject matter experts are the interface between the generating sites and the disposal facility(s). They provide an invaluable service to the generating organizations through their involvement in waste planning prior to waste generation and through championing implementation of the waste hierarchy. Through their interface, national treatment and transportation services are optimized and new business opportunities are identified. This national model is based on extensive experience in the development and on-going management of a national transuranic waste program and management of the national repository, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. The Low Level Program at the Savannah River Site also successfully developed and implemented the waste hierarchy, waste certification and waste generator services concepts presented below. The Savannah River Site

  12. Standard practice for prediction of the long-term behavior of materials, including waste forms, used in engineered barrier systems (EBS) for geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2007-01-01

    1.1 This practice describes test methods and data analyses used to develop models for the prediction of the long-term behavior of materials, such as engineered barrier system (EBS) materials and waste forms, used in the geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and other high-level nuclear waste in a geologic repository. The alteration behavior of waste form and EBS materials is important because it affects the retention of radionuclides by the disposal system. The waste form and EBS materials provide a barrier to release either directly (as in the case of waste forms in which the radionuclides are initially immobilized), or indirectly (as in the case of containment materials that restrict the ingress of groundwater or the egress of radionuclides that are released as the waste forms and EBS materials degrade). 1.1.1 Steps involved in making such predictions include problem definition, testing, modeling, and model confirmation. 1.1.2 The predictions are based on models derived from theoretical considerat...

  13. Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gervasio, Vivianaluxa [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Vienna, John D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kim, Dong-Sang [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kruger, Albert A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2018-02-19

    Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints (Vienna et al. 2016), and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable WOL was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of IHLW glass when no uncertainties were taken into accound. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). ILAW mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with weaste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MTG. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.

  14. Challenges in Modeling the Degradation of Ceramic Waste Forms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devanathan, Ramaswami; Gao, Fei; Sun, Xin

    2011-09-01

    We identify the state of the art, gaps in current understanding, and key research needs in the area of modeling the long-term degradation of ceramic waste forms for nuclear waste disposition. The directed purpose of this report is to define a roadmap for Waste IPSC needs to extend capabilities of waste degradation to ceramic waste forms, which overlaps with the needs of the subconsinuum scale of FMM interests. The key knowledge gaps are in the areas of (i) methodology for developing reliable interatomic potentials to model the complex atomic-level interactions in waste forms; (ii) characterization of water interactions at ceramic surfaces and interfaces; and (iii) extension of atomic-level insights to the long time and distance scales relevant to the problem of actinide and fission product immobilization.

  15. Challenges in Modeling the Degradation of Ceramic Waste Forms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devanathan, Ramaswami; Gao, Fei; Sun, Xin

    2011-01-01

    We identify the state of the art, gaps in current understanding, and key research needs in the area of modeling the long-term degradation of ceramic waste forms for nuclear waste disposition. The directed purpose of this report is to define a roadmap for Waste IPSC needs to extend capabilities of waste degradation to ceramic waste forms, which overlaps with the needs of the subconsinuum scale of FMM interests. The key knowledge gaps are in the areas of (i) methodology for developing reliable interatomic potentials to model the complex atomic-level interactions in waste forms; (ii) characterization of water interactions at ceramic surfaces and interfaces; and (iii) extension of atomic-level insights to the long time and distance scales relevant to the problem of actinide and fission product immobilization.

  16. Conversion Factors for Predicting Unshielded Dose Rates in Shielded Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clapham, M.; Seamans Jr, J.V.; Arbon, R.E.

    2009-01-01

    This document describes the methodology developed and used by the Advanced Mixed Waste Treatment Project for determining the activity content and the unshielded surface dose rate for lead lined containers contaminated with transuranic waste. Several methods were investigated: - Direct measurement of the dose rate after removing the shielding. - Use of a MicroShield R derived dose conversion factor, (mRem/hr unshielded )/(mRem/hr shielded ), applied to the measured surface dose rate to estimate the unshielded surface dose rate. - Use of a MicroShield R derived activity conversion factor, mRem/hr unshielded /Ci, applied to the measured activity to estimate the unshielded dose rate. - Use of an empirically derived activity conversion factor, mRem/hr unshielded /Ci, applied to the measured activity to estimate the unshielded dose rate. The last approach proved to be the most efficacious by using a combination of nondestructive assay and empirically defined dose rate conversion factors. Empirically derived conversion factors were found to be highly dependent upon the matrix of the waste. Use of conversion factors relied on activity values corrected to address the presence of a lead liner. (authors)

  17. Impact of microbial activity on the radioactive waste disposal: long term prediction of biocorrosion processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libert, Marie; Schütz, Marta Kerber; Esnault, Loïc; Féron, Damien; Bildstein, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    This study emphasizes different experimental approaches and provides perspectives to apprehend biocorrosion phenomena in the specific disposal environment by investigating microbial activity with regard to the modification of corrosion rate, which in turn can have an impact on the safety of radioactive waste geological disposal. It is found that iron-reducing bacteria are able to use corrosion products such as iron oxides and "dihydrogen" as new energy sources, especially in the disposal environment which contains low amounts of organic matter. Moreover, in the case of sulphate-reducing bacteria, the results show that mixed aerobic and anaerobic conditions are the most hazardous for stainless steel materials, a situation which is likely to occur in the early stage of a geological disposal. Finally, an integrated methodological approach is applied to validate the understanding of the complex processes and to design experiments aiming at the acquisition of kinetic data used in long term predictive modelling of biocorrosion processes. © 2013.

  18. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B.

    2005-01-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues

  19. Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-12-01

    Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

  20. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  1. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  2. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  3. Programme of research into the management and storage of radioactive waste. Mathematical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rae, J.

    1984-01-01

    Progress in work on the importance of fractures in rocks to waste disposal studies is reported. The permeability of the fracture system is predicted. Computer programmes are used to solve problems of ground water flow and radionuclide transport, and a new 'dual porosity' mathematical model is assessed for radionuclide transportation. (U.K.)

  4. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing

  5. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Cement Waste Matrix Evaluation and Modelling of the Long Term Stability of Cementitious Waste Matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martensson, P.; Cronstrand, P.

    2013-01-01

    Cement based materials are often used as a solidification matrix for wet radioactive waste from nuclear power plants such as ion exchange resins, sludge and evaporator concentrates. The mechanical and chemical properties of the cement-waste matrix are affected by the type and the concentration of the waste. For this reason the recipe used in the solidification process has to be carefully adjusted to respond to the variations of the waste. At the Ringhals Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) an evaporator was to be taken into operation during the mid 2005. As a result of this process an evaporator concentrate containing boric acid was expected. The aims of the present study were to develop a recipe for the solidification of artificial evaporator concentrates, (AEC), containing H 3 BO 3 and measure the compressive strength of the waste/cement matrix over a period of 4 years. The confirmation of the previously reported retarding properties of H 3 BO 3 and the studies of AEC without H 3 BO 3 were also included as a part of this work. Finally, thermodynamic calculations were used as a tool in order to predict the evolution of the mineralogy and integrity for the different cement-waste specimens over very long periods of time, i.e. up to about 100 000 years. The most important finding was that when an optimized waste/cement matrix recipe was used the compressive strength increased during the entire 4 year period and no signs of degradation were noticed. It was also found that the long-term performance of the waste matrices is to a large extent site-specific. In general, the composition of the infiltrating water is more influential than the waste matrices, both on the degradation of the waste matrices itself as well as on the engineered barriers. (author)

  7. Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schultz, Peter Andrew

    2011-12-01

    The objective of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC) is to provide an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive-waste storage facility or disposal repository. Achieving the objective of modeling the performance of a disposal scenario requires describing processes involved in waste form degradation and radionuclide release at the subcontinuum scale, beginning with mechanistic descriptions of chemical reactions and chemical kinetics at the atomic scale, and upscaling into effective, validated constitutive models for input to high-fidelity continuum scale codes for coupled multiphysics simulations of release and transport. Verification and validation (V&V) is required throughout the system to establish evidence-based metrics for the level of confidence in M&S codes and capabilities, including at the subcontiunuum scale and the constitutive models they inform or generate. This Report outlines the nature of the V&V challenge at the subcontinuum scale, an approach to incorporate V&V concepts into subcontinuum scale modeling and simulation (M&S), and a plan to incrementally incorporate effective V&V into subcontinuum scale M&S destined for use in the NEAMS Waste IPSC work flow to meet requirements of quantitative confidence in the constitutive models informed by subcontinuum scale phenomena.

  8. Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, Peter Andrew

    2011-01-01

    The objective of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC) is to provide an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation (M and S) capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive-waste storage facility or disposal repository. Achieving the objective of modeling the performance of a disposal scenario requires describing processes involved in waste form degradation and radionuclide release at the subcontinuum scale, beginning with mechanistic descriptions of chemical reactions and chemical kinetics at the atomic scale, and upscaling into effective, validated constitutive models for input to high-fidelity continuum scale codes for coupled multiphysics simulations of release and transport. Verification and validation (V and V) is required throughout the system to establish evidence-based metrics for the level of confidence in M and S codes and capabilities, including at the subcontiunuum scale and the constitutive models they inform or generate. This Report outlines the nature of the V and V challenge at the subcontinuum scale, an approach to incorporate V and V concepts into subcontinuum scale modeling and simulation (M and S), and a plan to incrementally incorporate effective V and V into subcontinuum scale M and S destined for use in the NEAMS Waste IPSC work flow to meet requirements of quantitative confidence in the constitutive models informed by subcontinuum scale phenomena.

  9. Comparison of rheological evaluation techniques and turbulent flow prediction of a simulated nuclear waste melter slurry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carleson, T.E.; Hart, R.E.; Drown, D.C.; Peterson, M.E.

    1987-03-01

    An experimental study was performed on a simulated nuclear waste slurry containing the type of waste sludge and glass-forming chemicals that will be converted to a stable glass in a high-temperature furnace. The rheological properties of the slurry must be determined in order to design the transport and mixing systems. The rheological parameters for the slurry were determined by a variety of viscometers including a rotational viscometer, a capillary tube viscometer, and a pipe flow apparatus. Experiments revealed the absence of wall slip and sufficient non-Newtonian behavior to require adjustments of the results. The slurry was characterized as a yield pseudoplastic fluid. Different rheological constants were obtained for all three viscometers. Predictions of the shear stress as a function of shear rate showed good agreement between the constants determined by the rotational viscometer and the pipe loop apparatus. Laminar and turbulent flows in the pipe loop correlated closely with a recent theoretical model. 16 refs., 16 figs., 5 tabs

  10. Time-series-based hybrid mathematical modelling method adapted to forecast automotive and medical waste generation: Case study of Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpušenkaitė, Aistė; Ruzgas, Tomas; Denafas, Gintaras

    2018-05-01

    The aim of the study was to create a hybrid forecasting method that could produce higher accuracy forecasts than previously used 'pure' time series methods. Mentioned methods were already tested with total automotive waste, hazardous automotive waste, and total medical waste generation, but demonstrated at least a 6% error rate in different cases and efforts were made to decrease it even more. Newly developed hybrid models used a random start generation method to incorporate different time-series advantages and it helped to increase the accuracy of forecasts by 3%-4% in hazardous automotive waste and total medical waste generation cases; the new model did not increase the accuracy of total automotive waste generation forecasts. Developed models' abilities to forecast short- and mid-term forecasts were tested using prediction horizon.

  11. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  12. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

  13. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  14. Managing Dog Waste: Campaign Insights from the Health Belief Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Typhina, Eli; Yan, Changmin

    2014-01-01

    Aiming to help municipalities develop effective education and outreach campaigns to reduce stormwater pollutants, such as pet waste, this study applied the Health Belief Model (HBM) to identify perceptions of dog waste and corresponding collection behaviors from dog owners living in a small U.S. city. Results of 455 online survey responses…

  15. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  16. A conflict model for the international hazardous waste disposal dispute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Kaixian; Hipel, Keith W.; Fang, Liping

    2009-01-01

    A multi-stage conflict model is developed to analyze international hazardous waste disposal disputes. More specifically, the ongoing toxic waste conflicts are divided into two stages consisting of the dumping prevention and dispute resolution stages. The modeling and analyses, based on the methodology of graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), are used in both stages in order to grasp the structure and implications of a given conflict from a strategic viewpoint. Furthermore, a specific case study is investigated for the Ivory Coast hazardous waste conflict. In addition to the stability analysis, sensitivity and attitude analyses are conducted to capture various strategic features of this type of complicated dispute.

  17. A conflict model for the international hazardous waste disposal dispute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Kaixian; Hipel, Keith W; Fang, Liping

    2009-12-15

    A multi-stage conflict model is developed to analyze international hazardous waste disposal disputes. More specifically, the ongoing toxic waste conflicts are divided into two stages consisting of the dumping prevention and dispute resolution stages. The modeling and analyses, based on the methodology of graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), are used in both stages in order to grasp the structure and implications of a given conflict from a strategic viewpoint. Furthermore, a specific case study is investigated for the Ivory Coast hazardous waste conflict. In addition to the stability analysis, sensitivity and attitude analyses are conducted to capture various strategic features of this type of complicated dispute.

  18. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  19. Performance Prediction for Large-Scale Nuclear Waste Repositories: Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glassley, W E; Nitao, J J; Grant, W; Boulos, T N; Gokoffski, M O; Johnson, J W; Kercher, J R; Levatin, J A; Steefel, C I

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this project was development of a software package capable of utilizing terascale computational platforms for solving subsurface flow and transport problems important for disposal of high level nuclear waste materials, as well as for DOE-complex clean-up and stewardship efforts. We sought to develop a tool that would diminish reliance on abstracted models, and realistically represent the coupling between subsurface fluid flow, thermal effects and chemical reactions that both modify the physical framework of the rock materials and which change the rock mineralogy and chemistry of the migrating fluid. Providing such a capability would enhance realism in models and increase confidence in long-term predictions of performance. Achieving this goal also allows more cost-effective design and execution of monitoring programs needed to evaluate model results. This goal was successfully accomplished through the development of a new simulation tool (NUFT-C). This capability allows high resolution modeling of complex coupled thermal-hydrological-geochemical processes in the saturated and unsaturated zones of the Earth's crust. The code allows consideration of virtually an unlimited number of chemical species and minerals in a multi-phase, non-isothermal environment. Because the code is constructed to utilize the computational power of the tera-scale IBM ASCI computers, simulations that encompass large rock volumes and complex chemical systems can now be done without sacrificing spatial or temporal resolution. The code is capable of doing one-, two-, and three-dimensional simulations, allowing unprecedented evaluation of the evolution of rock properties and mineralogical and chemical change as a function of time. The code has been validated by comparing results of simulations to laboratory-scale experiments, other benchmark codes, field scale experiments, and observations in natural systems. The results of these exercises demonstrate that the physics and chemistry

  20. Artificial Neural Network Modelling of the Energy Content of Municipal Solid Wastes in Northern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. B. Oumarou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The study presents an application of the artificial neural network model using the back propagation learning algorithm to predict the actual calorific value of the municipal solid waste in major cities of the northern part of Nigeria, with high population densities and intense industrial activities. These cities are: Kano, Damaturu, Dutse, Bauchi, Birnin Kebbi, Gusau, Maiduguri, Katsina and Sokoto. Experimental data of the energy content and the physical characterization of the municipal solid waste serve as the input parameter in nature of wood, grass, metal, plastic, food remnants, leaves, glass and paper. Comparative studies were made by using the developed model, the experimental results and a correlation which was earlier developed by the authors to predict the energy content. While predicting the actual calorific value, the maximum error was 0.94% for the artificial neural network model and 5.20% by the statistical correlation. The network with eight neurons and an R2 = 0.96881 in the hidden layer results in a stable and optimum network. This study showed that the artificial neural network approach could successfully be used for energy content predictions from the municipal solid wastes in Northern Nigeria and other areas of similar waste stream and composition.

  1. Modeling the dissolution behavior of defense waste glass in a salt repository environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGrain, B.P.

    1988-02-01

    A mechanistic model describing a dynamic mass balance between the production and consumption of dissolved silica was found to describe the dissolution behavior of SRL-165 defense waste glass in a high-magnesium brine (PBB3) at a temperature of 90 0 C. The synergistic effect of the waste package container on the glass dissolution rate was found to depend on a precipitation reaction for a ferrous silicate mineral. The model predicted that the ferrous silicate precipitate should be variable in composition where the iron/silica stoichiometry depended on the metal/glass surface area ratio used in the experiment. This prediction was confirmed experimentally by the variable iron/silica ratios observed in filtered leachates. However, the interaction between dissolved silica and iron corrosion products needs to be much better understood before the model can be used with confidence in predicting radionuclide release rates for a salt repository. 25 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  2. Modeling, robust and distributed model predictive control for freeway networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.

    2016-01-01

    In Model Predictive Control (MPC) for traffic networks, traffic models are crucial since they are used as prediction models for determining the optimal control actions. In order to reduce the computational complexity of MPC for traffic networks, macroscopic traffic models are often used instead of

  3. Deep Predictive Models in Interactive Music

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Charles P.; Ellefsen, Kai Olav; Torresen, Jim

    2018-01-01

    Automatic music generation is a compelling task where much recent progress has been made with deep learning models. In this paper, we ask how these models can be integrated into interactive music systems; how can they encourage or enhance the music making of human users? Musical performance requires prediction to operate instruments, and perform in groups. We argue that predictive models could help interactive systems to understand their temporal context, and ensemble behaviour. Deep learning...

  4. Repository thermal response: A preliminary evaluation of the effects of modeled waste stream resolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryder, E.E.; Dunn, E.

    1995-09-01

    One of the primary factors that influences our predictions of host-rock thermal response within a high level waste repository is how the waste stream's represented in the models. In the context of thermal modeling, waste stream refers to an itemized listing of the type (pressurized-water or boiling-water reactor), age, burnup, and enrichment of the spent nuclear fuel assemblies entering the repository over the 25-year emplacement phase. The effect of package-by-package variations in spent fuel characteristics on predicted repository thermal response is the focus of this report. A three-year portion of the emplacement period was modeled using three approaches to waste stream resolution. The first assumes that each package type emplaced in a given year is adequately represented by average characteristics. For comparison, two models that explicitly account for each waste package's individual characteristics were run; the first assuming a random selection of packages and the second an ordered approach aimed at locating the higher power output packages toward the center of the emplacement area. Results indicate that the explicit representation of packages results in hot and cold spots that could have performance assessment and design implications. Furthermore, questions are raised regarding the representativeness of average characteristics with respect to integrated energy output and the possible implications of a mass-based repository loading approach

  5. Optimising the anaerobic co-digestion of urban organic waste using dynamic bioconversion mathematical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitamo, Temesgen Mathewos; Boldrin, Alessio; Dorini, G.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical anaerobic bioconversion models are often used as a convenient way to simulate the conversion of organic materials to biogas. The aim of the study was to apply a mathematical model for simulating the anaerobic co-digestion of various types of urban organic waste, in order to develop...... in a continuously stirred tank reactor. The model's outputs were validated with experimental results obtained in thermophilic conditions, with mixed sludge as a single substrate and urban organic waste as a co-substrate at hydraulic retention times of 30, 20, 15 and 10 days. The predicted performance parameter...... (methane productivity and yield) and operational parameter (concentration of ammonia and volatile fatty acid) values were reasonable and displayed good correlation and accuracy. The model was later applied to identify optimal scenarios for an urban organic waste co-digestion process. The simulation...

  6. Modelling of a combustion process for the incineration of municipal solid waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohyiza Ba'an Sivapalan Kathiravale Mohamad Puad Abu Muhd Noor Muhd Yunus

    2005-01-01

    Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in Malaysia is increasing rapidly with increase in the population and economic growth. Landfill capacity required to accommodate the generated waste is anticipated to exceed 20,000 tons per day by year 2020. The current management system of solely depending on landfill disposal is inadequate and calls for a more environmentally friendly management system, which include the prospects of an eco park. To understand the combustion process, the development of mathematical model based on waste characteristic is required. Hence this paper will present the mathematical model developed to predict the mass and heat balance for MSW combustion process. This results of this mathematical model will be compared against the actual combustion of MSW in Thermal Oxidation Plant, so that the accuracy of the developed model can be determined accordingly. (Author)

  7. Waste management system optimisation for Southern Italy with MARKAL model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvia, M.; Cosmi, C. [Istituto di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi Ambientale, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, C. da S. Loja, 85050 (PZ) Tito Scalo (Italy); Macchiato, M. [Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Universita Federico II, Via Cintia, 80126 Napoli (Italy); Mangiamele, L. [Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell' Ambiente, Universita degli Studi della Basilicata, C. da Macchia Romana, 85100 Potenza (Italy)

    2002-01-01

    The MARKAL models generator was utilised to build up a comprehensive model of the anthropogenic activities system which points out the linkages between productive processes and waste disposal technologies. The aim of such a study is to determine the optimal configuration of the waste management system for the Basilicata region (Southern Italy), in order to support the definition of the regional waste management plan in compliance with the Italian laws. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of landfilling fees on the choice of waste processing technologies, in order to foster waste management strategies which are environmentally sustainable, economically affordable and highly efficient. The results show the key role of separate collection and mechanical pre-treatments in the achievement of the legislative targets.

  8. A Spanish model for quantification and management of construction waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solis-Guzman, Jaime; Marrero, Madelyn; Montes-Delgado, Maria Victoria; Ramirez-de-Arellano, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Currently, construction and demolition waste (C and D waste) is a worldwide issue that concerns not only governments but also the building actors involved in construction activity. In Spain, a new national decree has been regulating the production and management of C and D waste since February 2008. The present work describes the waste management model that has inspired this decree: the Alcores model implemented with good results in Los Alcores Community (Seville, Spain). A detailed model is also provided to estimate the volume of waste that is expected to be generated on the building site. The quantification of C and D waste volume, from the project stage, is essential for the building actors to properly plan and control its disposal. This quantification model has been developed by studying 100 dwelling projects, especially their bill of quantities, and defining three coefficients to estimate the demolished volume (CT), the wreckage volume (CR) and the packaging volume (CE). Finally, two case studies are included to illustrate the usefulness of the model to estimate C and D waste volume in both new construction and demolition projects.

  9. A Spanish model for quantification and management of construction waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solís-Guzmán, Jaime; Marrero, Madelyn; Montes-Delgado, Maria Victoria; Ramírez-de-Arellano, Antonio

    2009-09-01

    Currently, construction and demolition waste (C&D waste) is a worldwide issue that concerns not only governments but also the building actors involved in construction activity. In Spain, a new national decree has been regulating the production and management of C&D waste since February 2008. The present work describes the waste management model that has inspired this decree: the Alcores model implemented with good results in Los Alcores Community (Seville, Spain). A detailed model is also provided to estimate the volume of waste that is expected to be generated on the building site. The quantification of C&D waste volume, from the project stage, is essential for the building actors to properly plan and control its disposal. This quantification model has been developed by studying 100 dwelling projects, especially their bill of quantities, and defining three coefficients to estimate the demolished volume (CT), the wreckage volume (CR) and the packaging volume (CE). Finally, two case studies are included to illustrate the usefulness of the model to estimate C&D waste volume in both new construction and demolition projects.

  10. Neural network models for biological waste-gas treatment systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rene, Eldon R; Estefanía López, M; Veiga, María C; Kennes, Christian

    2011-12-15

    This paper outlines the procedure for developing artificial neural network (ANN) based models for three bioreactor configurations used for waste-gas treatment. The three bioreactor configurations chosen for this modelling work were: biofilter (BF), continuous stirred tank bioreactor (CSTB) and monolith bioreactor (MB). Using styrene as the model pollutant, this paper also serves as a general database of information pertaining to the bioreactor operation and important factors affecting gas-phase styrene removal in these biological systems. Biological waste-gas treatment systems are considered to be both advantageous and economically effective in treating a stream of polluted air containing low to moderate concentrations of the target contaminant, over a rather wide range of gas-flow rates. The bioreactors were inoculated with the fungus Sporothrix variecibatus, and their performances were evaluated at different empty bed residence times (EBRT), and at different inlet styrene concentrations (C(i)). The experimental data from these bioreactors were modelled to predict the bioreactors performance in terms of their removal efficiency (RE, %), by adequate training and testing of a three-layered back propagation neural network (input layer-hidden layer-output layer). Two models (BIOF1 and BIOF2) were developed for the BF with different combinations of easily measurable BF parameters as the inputs, that is concentration (gm(-3)), unit flow (h(-1)) and pressure drop (cm of H(2)O). The model developed for the CSTB used two inputs (concentration and unit flow), while the model for the MB had three inputs (concentration, G/L (gas/liquid) ratio, and pressure drop). Sensitivity analysis in the form of absolute average sensitivity (AAS) was performed for all the developed ANN models to ascertain the importance of the different input parameters, and to assess their direct effect on the bioreactors performance. The performance of the models was estimated by the regression

  11. Long-term prediction of corrosion damage in nuclear waste systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hidekazu Asano; Feron, Damien; Gens, Robert; Padovani, Cristiano; Naoki Taniguchi

    2014-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows: The Fifth International Workshop on Long-Term Prediction of Corrosion Damage in Nuclear Waste Systems was held at the Taisetsu Crystal Hall in Asahikawa, Hokkaido, Japan from October 6 to 10, 2013, following the four previous successful workshops (Cadarache, France, 2001; Nice, France, 2004; Pennsylvania State University, USA, 2007 and Bruges, Belgium, 2010). It was organised by the Japan Society of Corrosion Engineering (JSCE) and supported by the European Federation of Corrosion (EFC): Nuclear Corrosion Working Party (WP4) as of EFC event No.360. Furthermore, it was supported by the Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Environment (NUCE) of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) and The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (JSME). Twenty nine (29) oral presentations were distributed among eleven (11) sessions covering a broad range of subjects. Another twenty eight (28) studies were presented at a poster session. A total of sixty seven (67) participants from twelve (12) countries attended the event. The presentations and the following discussion provided contextual information about the state of some national programmes and covered in detail a range of experimental and modelling studies aimed at evaluating the corrosion behaviour of a range of candidate materials and designs for the storage and disposal of radioactive wastes considered across the globe. These included modelling studies aimed at evaluating the durability of container designs for high level waste (HLW), spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and intermediate level waste (ILW), experimental studies of the corrosion behaviour of copper, carbon steel, and stainless steel in conditions relevant to storage (atmospheric) or disposal (near neutral or alkaline), as well as studies of archaeological artifacts and natural analogues aimed at supporting long-term predictions. Specific sessions were dedicated to microbial induced corrosion (MIC) and to the corrosion properties of

  12. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optimal...... steady state is established for terminal constraint model predictive control (MPC). The region of attraction is the steerable set. Existing analysis methods for closed-loop properties of MPC are not applicable to this new formulation, and a new analysis method is developed. It is shown how to extend...

  13. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  14. Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models

    OpenAIRE

    David Ebert

    2006-01-01

    One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...

  15. CFD modeling and experience of waste-to-energy plant burning waste wood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rajh, B.; Yin, Chungen; Samec, N.

    2013-01-01

    Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is being increasingly used in industry for in-depth understanding of the fundamental mixing, combustion, heat transfer and pollutant formation in combustion processes and for design and optimization of Waste-to-Energy (WtE) plants. In this paper, CFD modeling...... the conversion of the waste wood in the fuel bed on the grate, which provides the appropriate inlet boundary condition for the freeboard 3D CFD simulation. The CFD analysis reveals the detailed mixing and combustion characteristics in the waste wood-fired furnace, pinpointing how to improve the design...

  16. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  17. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  18. Biosphere model for assessing doses from nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, R.; Amiro, B.D.; Davis, P.A.; Sheppard, S.C.; Szekeley, J.G.

    1994-01-01

    The biosphere model, BIOTRAC, for predicting long term nuclide concentrations and radiological doses from Canada's nuclear fuel waste disposal concept of a vault deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield is presented. This generic, boreal zone biosphere model is based on scenario analysis and systems variability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Conservatism is used to bridge uncertainties, even though this creates a small amount of extra nuclide mass. Environmental change over the very long assessment period is mainly handled through distributed parameter values. The dose receptors are a critical group of humans and four generic non-human target organisms. BIOTRAC includes six integrated submodels and it interfaces smoothly with a geosphere model. This interface includes a bedrock well. The geosphere model defines the discharge zones of deep groundwater where nuclides released from the vault enter the biosphere occupied by the dose receptors. The size of one of these zones is reduced when water is withdrawn from the bedrock well. Sensitivity analysis indicates 129 I is by far the most important radionuclide. Results also show bedrock-well water leads to higher doses to man than lake water, but the former doses decrease with the size of the critical group. Under comparable circumstances, doses to the non-human biota are greater than those for man

  19. Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

  20. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...

  12. GLASS COMPOSITION-TCLP RESPONSE MODEL FOR WASTE GLASSES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong-Sang; Vienna, John D.

    2004-01-01

    A first-order property model for normalized Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) release as a function of glass composition was developed using data collected from various studies. The normalized boron release is used to estimate the release of toxic elements based on the observation that the boron release represents the conservative release for those constituents of interest. The current TCLP model has two targeted application areas: (1) delisting of waste-glass product as radioactive (not mixed) waste and (2) designating the glass wastes generated from waste-glass research activities as hazardous or non-hazardous. This paper describes the data collection and model development for TCLP releases and discusses the issues related to the application of the model

  13. Modeling transient heat transfer in nuclear waste repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shaw-Yang; Yeh, Hund-Der

    2009-09-30

    The heat of high-level nuclear waste may be generated and released from a canister at final disposal sites. The waste heat may affect the engineering properties of waste canisters, buffers, and backfill material in the emplacement tunnel and the host rock. This study addresses the problem of the heat generated from the waste canister and analyzes the heat distribution between the buffer and the host rock, which is considered as a radial two-layer heat flux problem. A conceptual model is first constructed for the heat conduction in a nuclear waste repository and then mathematical equations are formulated for modeling heat flow distribution at repository sites. The Laplace transforms are employed to develop a solution for the temperature distributions in the buffer and the host rock in the Laplace domain, which is numerically inverted to the time-domain solution using the modified Crump method. The transient temperature distributions for both the single- and multi-borehole cases are simulated in the hypothetical geological repositories of nuclear waste. The results show that the temperature distributions in the thermal field are significantly affected by the decay heat of the waste canister, the thermal properties of the buffer and the host rock, the disposal spacing, and the thickness of the host rock at a nuclear waste repository.

  14. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  15. System dynamic modeling on construction waste management in Shenzhen, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Vivian W Y; Li, Jingru; Cai, Hong

    2014-05-01

    This article examines the complexity of construction waste management in Shenzhen, Mainland China. In-depth analysis of waste generation, transportation, recycling, landfill and illegal dumping of various inherent management phases is explored. A system dynamics modeling using Stella model is developed. Effects of landfill charges and also penalties from illegal dumping are also simulated. The results show that the implementation of comprehensive policy on both landfill charges and illegal dumping can effectively control the illegal dumping behavior, and achieve comprehensive construction waste minimization. This article provides important recommendations for effective policy implementation and explores new perspectives for Shenzhen policy makers.

  16. Spent fuel: prediction model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almassy, M.Y.; Bosi, D.M.; Cantley, D.A.

    1979-07-01

    The need for spent fuel disposal performance modeling stems from a requirement to assess the risks involved with deep geologic disposal of spent fuel, and to support licensing and public acceptance of spent fuel repositories. Through the balanced program of analysis, diagnostic testing, and disposal demonstration tests, highlighted in this presentation, the goal of defining risks and of quantifying fuel performance during long-term disposal can be attained

  17. Navy Recruit Attrition Prediction Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    have high correlation with attrition, such as age, job characteristics, command climate, marital status, behavior issues prior to recruitment, and the...the additive model. glm(formula = Outcome ~ Age + Gender + Marital + AFQTCat + Pay + Ed + Dep, family = binomial, data = ltraining) Deviance ...0.1 ‘ ‘ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance : 105441 on 85221 degrees of freedom Residual deviance

  18. Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963

  19. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  20. Finding furfural hydrogenation catalysts via predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strassberger, Z.; Mooijman, M.; Ruijter, E.; Alberts, A.H.; Maldonado, A.G.; Orru, R.V.A.; Rothenberg, G.

    2010-01-01

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes

  1. FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL STRESSES IN ... the transverse residual stress in the x-direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa ... the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

  2. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic

  3. Quality assurance criteria for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-07-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) as a deep geologic repository for transuranic (TRU) and TRU-mixed wastes generated by DOE Defense Program activities. Regulatory agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and New Mexico Environment Department, will be forced to rely upon system modeling to determine the potential compliance of the WIPP facility with federal regulations. Specifically, long-term modeling efforts are focused on compliance with 40 CFR Part 268, ''Land Disposal Restrictions,'' and 40 CFR Part 191, ''Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level, and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes.'' DOE plans to use the similar conceptual models and numerical codes to demonstrate compliance under both of these regulations. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been developing a system model that will be used to demonstrate potential waste migration from the WIPP facility. Because the geologic system underlying the WIPP site is not completely understood, the software code to model the system must be developed to exacting standards for its predictions to be reliable and defensible. This is a complex model that consists of many submodules used to describe various migration pathways and processes that affect potential waste migration

  4. Overview of resuspension model: application to low level waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Healy, J.W.

    1980-01-01

    Resuspension is one of the potential pathways to man for radioactive or chemical contaminants that are in the biosphere. In waste management, spills or other surface contamination can serve as a source for resuspension during the operational phase. After the low-level waste disposal area is closed, radioactive materials can be brought to the surface by animals or insects or, in the long term, the surface can be removed by erosion. Any of these methods expose the material to resuspension in the atmosphere. Intrusion into the waste mass can produce resuspension of potential hazard to the intruder. Removal of items from the waste mass by scavengers or archeologists can result in potential resuspension exposure to others handling or working with the object. The ways in which resuspension can occur are wind resuspension, mechanical resuspension and local resuspension. While methods of predicting exposure are not accurate, they include the use of the resuspension factor, the resuspension rate and mass loading of the air

  5. An empirical modeling tool and glass property database in development of US-DOE radioactive waste glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, I.; Gan, H.

    1997-01-01

    An integrated glass database has been developed at the Vitreous State Laboratory of Catholic University of America. The major objective of this tool was to support glass formulation using the MAWS approach (Minimum Additives Waste Stabilization). An empirical modeling capability, based on the properties of over 1000 glasses in the database, was also developed to help formulate glasses from waste streams under multiple user-imposed constraints. The use of this modeling capability, the performance of resulting models in predicting properties of waste glasses, and the correlation of simple structural theories to glass properties are the subjects of this paper. (authors)

  6. Utilizing the non-bridge oxygen model to predict the glass viscosity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kwansik; Sheng, Jiawei; Maeng, Sung Jun; Song, Myung Jae

    1998-01-01

    Viscosity is the most important process property of waste glass. Viscosity measurement is difficult and costs much. Non-bridging Oxygen (NBO) model which relates glass composition to viscosity had been developed for high level waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS). This research utilized this NBO model to predict the viscosity of KEPRI's 55 glasses. It was found that there was a linear relationship between the measured viscosity and the predicted viscosity. The NBO model could be used to predict glass viscosity in glass formulation development. However the precision of predicted viscosity is out of satisfaction because the composition ranges are very different between the SRS and KEPRI glasses. The modification of NBO calculation, which included modification of alkaline earth elements and TiO 2 , could not strikingly improve the precision of predicted values

  7. A model based on feature objects aided strategy to evaluate the methane generation from food waste by anaerobic digestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Meijuan; Zhao, Mingxing; Huang, Zhenxing; Xi, Kezhong; Shi, Wansheng; Ruan, Wenquan

    2018-02-01

    A model based on feature objects (FOs) aided strategy was used to evaluate the methane generation from food waste by anaerobic digestion. The kinetics of feature objects was tested by the modified Gompertz model and the first-order kinetic model, and the first-order kinetic hydrolysis constants were used to estimate the reaction rate of homemade and actual food waste. The results showed that the methane yields of four feature objects were significantly different. The anaerobic digestion of homemade food waste and actual food waste had various methane yields and kinetic constants due to the different contents of FOs in food waste. Combining the kinetic equations with the multiple linear regression equation could well express the methane yield of food waste, as the R 2 of food waste was more than 0.9. The predictive methane yields of the two actual food waste were 528.22 mL g -1  TS and 545.29 mL g -1  TS with the model, while the experimental values were 527.47 mL g -1  TS and 522.1 mL g -1  TS, respectively. The relative error between the experimental cumulative methane yields and the predicted cumulative methane yields were both less than 5%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Buried Waste Integrated Demonstration stakeholder involvement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaupanger, R.M.; Kostelnik, K.M.; Milam, L.M.

    1994-04-01

    The Buried Waste Integrated Demonstration (BWID) is a program funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Development. BWID supports the applied research, development, demonstration, and evaluation of a suite of advanced technologies that together form a comprehensive remediation system for the effective and efficient remediation of buried waste. Stakeholder participation in the DOE Environmental Management decision-making process is critical to remediation efforts. Appropriate mechanisms for communication with the public, private sector, regulators, elected officials, and others are being aggressively pursued by BWID to permit informed participation. This document summarizes public outreach efforts during FY-93 and presents a strategy for expanded stakeholder involvement during FY-94

  9. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  10. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  11. An Optimization Waste Load Allocation Model in River Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirpoor Daylami, A.; jarihani, A. A.; Aminisola, K.

    2012-04-01

    In many river systems, increasing of the waste discharge leads to increasing pollution of these water bodies. While the capacity of the river flow for pollution acceptance is limited and the ability of river to clean itself is restricted, the dischargers have to release their waste into the river after a primary pollution treatment process. Waste Load Allocation as a well-known water quality control strategy is used to determine the optimal pollutant removal at a number of point sources along the river. This paper aim at developing a new approach for treatment and management of wastewater inputs into the river systems, such that water quality standards in these receiving waters are met. In this study, inspired by the fact that cooperation among some single point source waste dischargers can lead to a more waste acceptance capacity and/or more optimum quality control in a river, an efficient approach was implemented to determine both primary waste water treatment levels and/or the best releasing points of the waste into the river. In this methodology, a genetic algorithm is used as an optimization tool to calculate optimal fraction removal levels of each one of single or shared discharger. Besides, a sub-model embedded to optimization model was used to simulate water quality of the river in each one of discharging scenarios based on the modified Streeter and Phelps quality equations. The practical application of the model is illustrated with a case study of the Gharesoo river system in west of Iran.

  12. Numerical modeling capabilities to predict repository performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-09-01

    This report presents a summary of current numerical modeling capabilities that are applicable to the design and performance evaluation of underground repositories for the storage of nuclear waste. The report includes codes that are available in-house, within Golder Associates and Lawrence Livermore Laboratories; as well as those that are generally available within the industry and universities. The first listing of programs are in-house codes in the subject areas of hydrology, solute transport, thermal and mechanical stress analysis, and structural geology. The second listing of programs are divided by subject into the following categories: site selection, structural geology, mine structural design, mine ventilation, hydrology, and mine design/construction/operation. These programs are not specifically designed for use in the design and evaluation of an underground repository for nuclear waste; but several or most of them may be so used

  13. Modeling of nuclear waste disposal by rock melting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuze, F.E.

    1982-04-01

    Today, the favored option for disposal of high-level nuclear wastes is their burial in mined caverns. As an alternative, the concept of deep disposal by rock melting (DRM) also has received some attention. DRM entails the injection of waste, in a cavity or borehole, 2 to 3 kilometers down in the earth crust. Granitic rocks are the prime candidate medium. The high thermal loading initially will melt the rock surrounding the waste. Following resolidification, a rock/waste matrix is formed, which should provide isolation for many years. The complex thermal, mechanical, and hydraulic aspects of DRM can be studied best by means of numerical models. The models must accommodate the coupling of the physical processes involved, and the temperature dependency of the granite properties, some of which are subject to abrupt discontinuities, during α-β phase transition and melting. This paper outlines a strategy for such complex modeling

  14. Domain Specific Language for Modeling Waste Management Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zarrin, Bahram

    environmental technologies i.e. solid waste management systems. Flow-based programming is used to support concurrent execution of the processes, and provides a model-integration language for composing processes from homogeneous or heterogeneous domains. And a domain-specific language is used to define atomic......In order to develop sustainable waste management systems with considering life cycle perspective, scientists and domain experts in environmental science require readily applicable tools for modeling and evaluating the life cycle impacts of the waste management systems. Practice has proved...... a domain specific language for modeling of waste-management systems on the basis of our framework. We evaluate the language by providing a set of case studies. The contributions of this thesis are; addressing separation of concerns in Flow-based programming and providing the formal specification of its...

  15. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  16. Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Rezaee

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...

  17. Measurements and modeling of gas fluxes in unsaturated mine waste materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabwe, L.K.

    2008-07-01

    A technique known as dynamic closed chamber (DDC) was recently developed to measure carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) fluxes from the soil surface to the atmosphere. The field application of the DCC was investigated in this thesis with a particular focus on quantifying reaction rates in 2 waste-rock piles at the Key Lake uranium mine in northern Saskatchewan. The dominant geochemical reactions in both waste-rock piles were not typical of acid rock drainage (ARD) waste-rock piles. The CO{sub 2} fluxes measured in this study occur in the organic material underlying the waste rocks. The study provided a complete suite of measurements needed to characterize spatial distribution of CO{sub 2} fluxes on larger-scale studies of waste-rock piles. In comparison to other CO{sub 2} flux measuring techniques, the DCC method accurately quantified field soil respiration and had an added advantage in terms of speed and repeatability. The DCC was also used to investigate CO{sub 2} fluxes under the climatic variables that affect soil water content in waste-rock piles. A simple model for predicting the effects of soil water content on CO{sub 2} diffusion coefficient and concentration profiles was developed and verified. It was concluded that the DCC method is suitable for field applications to quantify CO{sub 2} fluxes and to characterize the spatial and temporal dynamics of CO{sub 2} fluxes from unsaturated C-horizon soils and waste-rock piles.

  18. Low-level waste shallow land disposal source term model: Data input guides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.M.; Suen, C.J.

    1989-07-01

    This report provides an input guide for the computational models developed to predict the rate of radionuclide release from shallow land disposal of low-level waste. Release of contaminants depends on four processes: water flow, container degradation, waste from leaching, and contaminant transport. The computer code FEMWATER has been selected to predict the movement of water in an unsaturated porous media. The computer code BLT (Breach, Leach, and Transport), a modification of FEMWASTE, has been selected to predict the processes of container degradation (Breach), contaminant release from the waste form (Leach), and contaminant migration (Transport). In conjunction, these two codes have the capability to account for the effects of disposal geometry, unsaturated/water flow, container degradation, waste form leaching, and migration of contaminants releases within a single disposal trench. In addition to the input requirements, this report presents the fundamental equations and relationships used to model the four different processes previously discussed. Further, the appendices provide a representative sample of data required by the different models. 14 figs., 27 tabs

  19. Modeling for speciation of radionuclides in waste packages with high-level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weyand, Torben; Bracke, Guido; Seher, Holger

    2016-10-01

    Based on a literature search on radioactive waste inventories adequate thermodynamic data for model inventories were derived for geochemical model calculations using PHREEQC in order to determine the solid phase composition of high-level radioactive wastes in different containers. The calculations were performed for different model inventories (PWR-MOX, PWR-UO2, BWR-MOX, BMR-UO2) assuming intact containers under reduction conditions. The effect of a defect in the container on the solid phase composition was considered in variation calculations assuming air contact induced oxidation.

  20. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  1. High-Level Waste Glass Formulation Model Sensitivity Study 2009 Glass Formulation Model Versus 1996 Glass Formulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belsher, J.D.; Meinert, F.L.

    2009-01-01

    This document presents the differences between two HLW glass formulation models (GFM): The 1996 GFM and 2009 GFM. A glass formulation model is a collection of glass property correlations and associated limits, as well as model validity and solubility constraints; it uses the pretreated HLW feed composition to predict the amount and composition of glass forming additives necessary to produce acceptable HLW glass. The 2009 GFM presented in this report was constructed as a nonlinear optimization calculation based on updated glass property data and solubility limits described in PNNL-18501 (2009). Key mission drivers such as the total mass of HLW glass and waste oxide loading are compared between the two glass formulation models. In addition, a sensitivity study was performed within the 2009 GFM to determine the effect of relaxing various constraints on the predicted mass of the HLW glass.

  2. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  3. Development of a Novel Food Waste Collection Kiosk and Waste-to-Energy Business Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Franchetti

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. generates more than 37 million metric tons of food waste each year, and over 95% of it is disposed of at U.S. landfills. This paper describes the development of a novel food waste collection kiosk and business model called “Greenbox” that will collect and store food waste from households and restaurants with incentives for user participation to spur food waste-to-energy production in a local community. Greenbox offers a low-cost collection point to divert food waste from landfills, reduce greenhouse gases from decomposition, and aid in generating cleaner energy. A functional prototype was successfully developed by a team of engineering students and a business model was created as part of a senior design capstone course. Each Greenbox unit has the potential to reduce 275 metric tons of food waste per year, remove 1320 kg of greenhouse gases, and create 470,000 liters of methane gas while providing a payback period of 4.2 years and a rate of return of 14.9%.

  4. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  5. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  6. BIOLEACH: Coupled modeling of leachate and biogas production on solid waste landfills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo-Clavero, Maria-Elena; Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier

    2015-04-01

    One of the most important factors to address when performing the environmental impact assessment of urban solid waste landfills is to evaluate the leachate production. Leachate management (collection and treatment) is also one of the most relevant economical aspects to take into account during the landfill life. Leachate is formed as a solution of biological and chemical components during operational and post-operational phases on urban solid waste landfills as a combination of different processes that involve water gains and looses inside the solid waste mass. Infiltration of external water coming from precipitation is the most important component on this water balance. However, anaerobic waste decomposition and biogas formation processes play also a role on the balance as water-consuming processes. The production of leachate one biogas is therefore a coupled process. Biogas production models usually consider optimal conditions of water content on the solid waste mass. However, real conditions during the operational phase of the landfill may greatly differ from these optimal conditions. In this work, the first results obtained to predict both the leachate and the biogas production as a single coupled phenomenon on real solid waste landfills are shown. The model is applied on a synthetic case considering typical climatological conditions of Mediterranean catchments.

  7. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-09-10

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (k(H):k(D)=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R(2)=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model's predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization.

  8. Mechanistic modelling of the corrosion behaviour of copper nuclear fuel waste containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, F; Kolar, M

    1996-10-01

    A mechanistic model has been developed to predict the long-term corrosion behaviour of copper nuclear fuel waste containers in a Canadian disposal vault. The model is based on a detailed description of the electrochemical, chemical, adsorption and mass-transport processes involved in the uniform corrosion of copper, developed from the results of an extensive experimental program. Predictions from the model are compared with the results of some of these experiments and with observations from a bronze cannon submerged in seawater saturated clay sediments. Quantitative comparisons are made between the observed and predicted corrosion potential, corrosion rate and copper concentration profiles adjacent to the corroding surface, as a way of validating the long-term model predictions. (author). 12 refs., 5 figs.

  9. Modeling a Predictive Energy Equation Specific for Maintenance Hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byham-Gray, Laura D; Parrott, J Scott; Peters, Emily N; Fogerite, Susan Gould; Hand, Rosa K; Ahrens, Sean; Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Fiutem, Justin J

    2017-03-01

    Hypermetabolism is theorized in patients diagnosed with chronic kidney disease who are receiving maintenance hemodialysis (MHD). We aimed to distinguish key disease-specific determinants of resting energy expenditure to create a predictive energy equation that more precisely establishes energy needs with the intent of preventing protein-energy wasting. For this 3-year multisite cross-sectional study (N = 116), eligible participants were diagnosed with chronic kidney disease and were receiving MHD for at least 3 months. Predictors for the model included weight, sex, age, C-reactive protein (CRP), glycosylated hemoglobin, and serum creatinine. The outcome variable was measured resting energy expenditure (mREE). Regression modeling was used to generate predictive formulas and Bland-Altman analyses to evaluate accuracy. The majority were male (60.3%), black (81.0%), and non-Hispanic (76.7%), and 23% were ≥65 years old. After screening for multicollinearity, the best predictive model of mREE ( R 2 = 0.67) included weight, age, sex, and CRP. Two alternative models with acceptable predictability ( R 2 = 0.66) were derived with glycosylated hemoglobin or serum creatinine. Based on Bland-Altman analyses, the maintenance hemodialysis equation that included CRP had the best precision, with the highest proportion of participants' predicted energy expenditure classified as accurate (61.2%) and with the lowest number of individuals with underestimation or overestimation. This study confirms disease-specific factors as key determinants of mREE in patients on MHD and provides a preliminary predictive energy equation. Further prospective research is necessary to test the reliability and validity of this equation across diverse populations of patients who are receiving MHD.

  10. Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.

    1994-01-01

    The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in

  11. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  12. Composition models for the viscosity and chemical durability of West Valley related nuclear waste glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, X.; Saad, E.E.; Freeborn, W.P.; Macedo, P.B.; Pegg, I.L.; Sassoon, R.E.; Barkatt, A.; Finger, S.M.

    1988-01-01

    There are two important criteria that must be satisfied by a nuclear waste glass durability and processability. The chemical composition of the glass must be such that it does not dissolve or erode appreciably faster than the decay of the radioactive materials embedded in it. The second criterion, processability, means that the glass must melt with ease, must be easily pourable, and must not crystallize appreciably. This paper summarizes the development of simple models for predicting the durability and viscosity of nuclear waste glasses from their composition

  13. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  14. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  15. Hanford tank residual waste - Contaminant source terms and release models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deutsch, William J.; Cantrell, Kirk J.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Lindberg, Michael L.; Jeffery Serne, R.

    2011-01-01

    available mass in the waste) than previously predicted. This may be due to the coprecipitation of trace concentrations of Tc in relatively insoluble phases such as Fe oxide/hydroxide solids.

  16. Predicting the emission from an incineration plant - a modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohyiza Baan

    2004-01-01

    The emissions from combustion process of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) have become an important issue in incineration technology. Resulting from unstable combustion conditions, the formation of undesirable compounds such as CO, SO 2 , NO x , PM 10 and dioxin become the source of pollution concentration in the atmosphere. The impact of emissions on criteria air pollutant concentrations could be obtained directly using ambient air monitoring equipment or predicted using dispersion modelling. Literature shows that the complicated atmospheric processes that occur in nature can be described using mathematical models. This paper will highlight the air dispersion model as a tool to relate and simulate the release and dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere. The technique is based on a programming approach to develop the air dispersion ground level concentration model with the use of Gaussian and Pasquil equation. This model is useful to study the consequences of various sources of air pollutant and estimating the amount of pollutants released into the air from existing emission sources. From this model, it was found that the difference in percentage of data between actual conditions and the model's prediction is about 5%. (Author)

  17. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  18. Practical Modeling of aluminum species in high-pH waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.A.

    1995-10-01

    One of the main components of the nuclear waste stored at the Hanford Site is aluminum. As efforts are made to dispose of the waste, the need to predict the various phases of the aluminum becomes important for modeling of the disposal processes. Current databases of the aluminum species are not adequate as they stand. This study is not an attempt to present a rigorous discussion of aluminum chemistry, but to approach aluminum solubility as a practical application. The approach considers two different forms of aluminate; Al(OH) 4 - and AlO 2 - . By taking both of these forms of aluminate into consideration, a workable system of aluminium chemistry is formed that can be used to model the various waste disposal processes

  19. A reaction-transport model and its application to performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y.; McGrail, B.P.; Engel, D.W.

    1996-01-01

    One important issue in assessing the performance of a geological repository for nuclear waste disposal is to project the migration behaviour of radionuclides in subsurface environments over long time scales of 10,000 years or even longer. Obviously such projections cannot be achieved by laboratory measurements alone. Instead, scientists must rely on sophisticated predictive models that are built on a sound physico-chemical basis. The most important processes affecting the migration of radionuclides are usually classified into two types: 1) transport processes, including advection, diffusion and dispersion and 2) chemical reactions, including corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, precipitation of secondary phases, adsorption of radionuclides on the surface of solids, aqueous complexation etc. Typically the migration behaviour of radionuclides in geologic environments has been simulated by two types of models, hydrogeological and geochemical

  20. The aeration period of a model nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharland, S.M.; Tasker, P.W.

    1987-02-01

    We have constructed a model of the evolution of oxygen in a cement backfill which includes both its depletion through the canister corrosion reactions and its migration in the cement pores. The results indicate that the duration in which mild steel waste canisters may be subject to localised corrosion is very much shorter than the intended lifetime of the repository components, provided there is no external source of oxygen. For canisters spaced 1.2m apart, the model predicts a maximum aeration period of approximately 65 years, assuming high oxygen content and diffusivity in the backfill and low leakage current on the canisters (0.01 μA cm -2 ). In such a case a reducing environment is established throughout the backfill within this period. Under conditions of more restricted oxygen transport, reducing conditions are still established within a relatively short time in the immediate vicinity of the canisters, but the oxidation potential elsewhere in the backfill is then controlled by the uniform corrosion rate of the canisters. (author)

  1. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  2. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-01-01

    Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (kH:kD=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R2=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model’s predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization. PMID:23193388

  3. Model for acquiring innovative waste immobilization technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dole, L.R.; Singh, S.P.N.

    1988-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Oak Ridge Operations (ORO) has established the Waste Management Technology Center (WMTC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to assist in meeting the environmental requirements for federal facilities as stated in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). The WMTC will bring innovative mixed chemical and radioactive waste treatment and site closure technologies to bear on the many mixed chemical and radioactive waste problems at the DOE-ORO facilities located in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio. The WMTC seeks innovative technologies through a phased procurement cycle that encourages the teaming of emerging technologies with experienced contractors in order to comply with on-site requirements of DOE orders concerning protection of the environment. This three-phase procurement cycle includes: (1) a feasibility study and implementation plan, (2) an on-site pilot demonstration, and (3) full-scale implementation. This paper describes the statements of work for some related demonstrations and remedial actions

  4. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  5. Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors

    OpenAIRE

    GÖKÇE, Dila

    2011-01-01

    This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...

  6. A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

  7. Mass Transfer Model for a Breached Waste Package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, C.; McClure, J.

    2004-01-01

    The degradation of waste packages, which are used for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel in the repository, can result in configurations that may increase the probability of criticality. A mass transfer model is developed for a breached waste package to account for the entrainment of insoluble particles. In combination with radionuclide decay, soluble advection, and colloidal transport, a complete mass balance of nuclides in the waste package becomes available. The entrainment equations are derived from dimensionless parameters such as drag coefficient and Reynolds number and based on the assumption that insoluble particles are subjected to buoyant force, gravitational force, and drag force only. Particle size distributions are utilized to calculate entrainment concentration along with geochemistry model abstraction to calculate soluble concentration, and colloid model abstraction to calculate colloid concentration and radionuclide sorption. Results are compared with base case geochemistry model, which only considers soluble advection loss

  8. MCNP Modeling Results for Location of Buried TRU Waste Drums

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinman, D K; Schweitzer, J S

    2006-01-01

    In the 1960's, fifty-five gallon drums of TRU waste were buried in shallow pits on remote U.S. Government facilities such as the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (now split into the Idaho National Laboratory and the Idaho Completion Project [ICP]). Subsequently, it was decided to remove the drums and the material that was in them from the burial pits and send the material to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. Several technologies have been tried to locate the drums non-intrusively with enough precision to minimize the chance for material to be spread into the environment. One of these technologies is the placement of steel probe holes in the pits into which wireline logging probes can be lowered to measure properties and concentrations of material surrounding the probe holes for evidence of TRU material. There is also a concern that large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOC) are also present that would contaminate the environment during removal. In 2001, the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) built two pulsed neutron wireline logging tools to measure TRU and VOC around the probe holes. The tools are the Prompt Fission Neutron (PFN) and the Pulsed Neutron Gamma (PNG), respectively. They were tested experimentally in surrogate test holes in 2003. The work reported here estimates the performance of the tools using Monte-Carlo modelling prior to field deployment. A MCNP model was constructed by INEEL personnel. It was modified by the authors to assess the ability of the tools to predict quantitatively the position and concentration of TRU and VOC materials disposed around the probe holes. The model was used to simulate the tools scanning the probe holes vertically in five centimetre increments. A drum was included in the model that could be placed near the probe hole and at other locations out to forty-five centimetres from the probe-hole in five centimetre increments. Scans were performed with no chlorine in the

  9. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  10. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Integrated municipal solid waste scenario model using advanced pretreatment and waste to energy processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Gabriela; Rada, Elena Cristina; Ragazzi, Marco; Mărculescu, Cosmin; Badea, Adrian; Apostol, Tiberiu

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Appropriate solution for MSW management in new and future EU countries. • Decrease of landfill disposal applying an Integrated MSW approach. • Technological impediments and environmental assessment. - Abstract: In this paper an Integrated Municipal Solid Waste scenario model (IMSW-SM) with a potential practical application in the waste management sector is analyzed. The model takes into account quantification and characterization of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) streams from different sources, selective collection (SC), advanced mechanical sorting, material recovery and advanced thermal treatment. The paper provides a unique chain of advanced waste pretreatment stages of fully commingled waste streams, leading to an original set of suggestions and future contributions to a sustainable IMSWS, taking into account real data and EU principles. The selection of the input data was made on MSW management real case studies from two European regions. Four scenarios were developed varying mainly SC strategies and thermal treatment options. The results offer useful directions for decision makers in order to calibrate modern strategies in different realities

  12. PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Silveira Amaro

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.

  13. Alcator C-Mod predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pankin, Alexei; Bateman, Glenn; Kritz, Arnold; Greenwald, Martin; Snipes, Joseph; Fredian, Thomas

    2001-01-01

    Predictive simulations for the Alcator C-mod tokamak [I. Hutchinson et al., Phys. Plasmas 1, 1511 (1994)] are carried out using the BALDUR integrated modeling code [C. E. Singer et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 49, 275 (1988)]. The results are obtained for temperature and density profiles using the Multi-Mode transport model [G. Bateman et al., Phys. Plasmas 5, 1793 (1998)] as well as the mixed-Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model [M. Erba et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 39, 261 (1997)]. The simulated discharges are characterized by very high plasma density in both low and high modes of confinement. The predicted profiles for each of the transport models match the experimental data about equally well in spite of the fact that the two models have different dimensionless scalings. Average relative rms deviations are less than 8% for the electron density profiles and 16% for the electron and ion temperature profiles

  14. Limitations to the use of two-dimensional thermal modeling of a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, B.W.

    1979-01-01

    Thermal modeling of a nuclear waste repository is basic to most waste management predictive models. It is important that the modeling techniques accurately determine the time-dependent temperature distribution of the waste emplacement media. Recent modeling studies show that the time-dependent temperature distribution can be accurately modeled in the far-field using a 2-dimensional (2-D) planar numerical model; however, the near-field cannot be modeled accurately enough by either 2-D axisymmetric or 2-D planar numerical models for repositories in salt. The accuracy limits of 2-D modeling were defined by comparing results from 3-dimensional (3-D) TRUMP modeling with results from both 2-D axisymmetric and 2-D planar. Both TRUMP and ADINAT were employed as modeling tools. Two-dimensional results from the finite element code, ADINAT were compared with 2-D results from the finite difference code, TRUMP; they showed almost perfect correspondence in the far-field. This result adds substantially to confidence in future use of ADINAT and its companion stress code ADINA for thermal stress analysis. ADINAT was found to be somewhat sensitive to time step and mesh aspect ratio. 13 figures, 4 tables

  15. DEVELOPMENT OF A KINETIC MODEL OF BOEHMITE DISSOLUTION IN CAUSTIC SOLUTIONS APPLIED TO OPTIMIZE HANFORD WASTE PROCESSING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Disselkamp, R.S.

    2011-01-01

    Boehmite (e.g., aluminum oxyhydroxide) is a major non-radioactive component in Hanford and Savannah River nuclear tank waste sludge. Boehmite dissolution from sludge using caustic at elevated temperatures is being planned at Hanford to minimize the mass of material disposed of as high-level waste (HLW) during operation of the Waste Treatment Plant (WTP). To more thoroughly understand the chemistry of this dissolution process, we have developed an empirical kinetic model for aluminate production due to boehmite dissolution. Application of this model to Hanford tank wastes would allow predictability and optimization of the caustic leaching of aluminum solids, potentially yielding significant improvements to overall processing time, disposal cost, and schedule. This report presents an empirical kinetic model that can be used to estimate the aluminate production from the leaching of boehmite in Hanford waste as a function of the following parameters: (1) hydroxide concentration; (2) temperature; (3) specific surface area of boehmite; (4) initial soluble aluminate plus gibbsite present in waste; (5) concentration of boehmite in the waste; and (6) (pre-fit) Arrhenius kinetic parameters. The model was fit to laboratory, non-radioactive (e.g. 'simulant boehmite') leaching results, providing best-fit values of the Arrhenius A-factor, A, and apparent activation energy, E A , of A = 5.0 x 10 12 hour -1 and E A = 90 kJ/mole. These parameters were then used to predict boehmite leaching behavior observed in previously reported actual waste leaching studies. Acceptable aluminate versus leaching time profiles were predicted for waste leaching data from both Hanford and Savannah River site studies.

  16. Modeling of physico-chemical characteristics of mortar-waste mixture of radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plecas, I.; Arbutina, D.

    2015-01-01

    An optimization of mortar (as matrix), improved with bentonite clay, used for immobilization of radionuclides 137 Cs is presented. A relatively simple mathematical model is given, which permits minimization of leach rate and permeability and maximization of compressive strength. An optimal solution, based on experimental data, is given. These results will be used for a future Serbian radioactive waste disposal center. (authors)

  17. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

  18. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  19. The Sort on Radioactive Waste Type model: A method to sort single-shell tanks into characteristic groups. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, J.G.; Simpson, B.C.

    1994-08-01

    The Sort on Radioactive Waste Type (SORWT) model presents a method to categorize Hanford Site single-shell tanks (SSTs) into groups of tanks expected to exhibit similar chemical and physical characteristics based on their major waste types and processing histories. This model has identified 29 different waste-type groups encompassing 135 of the 149 SSTs and 93% of the total waste volume in SSTs. The remaining 14 SSTs and associated wastes could not be grouped according to the established criteria and were placed in an ungrouped category. This letter report will detail the assumptions and methodologies used to develop the SORWT model and present the grouping results. Included with this report is a brief description and approximate compositions of the single-shell tank waste types. In the near future, the validity of the predicted groups will be statistically tested using analysis of variance of characterization data obtained from recent (post-1989) core sampling and analysis activities. In addition, the SORWT model will be used to project the nominal waste characteristics of entire waste type groups that have some recent characterization data available. These subsequent activities will be documented along with these initial results in a comprehensive, formal PNL report cleared for public release by September 1994

  20. Monitoring of covering model of the National radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jezikova, M.

    2009-01-01

    The subject of this rigorous report is justification of cover model building at radioactive waste repository in Mochovce as a very important engineering barrier preventing significant release of radioactive substances into the environment and providing protection against ionizing radiation. This rigorous report includes a theoretical part, which describes radioactive waste characterization, radioactive waste management and summary of the preliminary activities prior to the building cover model, particularly involving the selection of appropriate variables and parameters and creation of monitoring plan during the long term monitoring for evaluation of this barrier in order to ensure minimization of any leak of radioactive substances from RAW. The next part includes evaluation of the values of parameters and variables to build cover model of RAW in Mochovce during 2006-2008 (author)

  1. Modeling of waste/near field interactions for a waste repository in bedded salt: the Dynamic Network (DNET) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cranwell, R.M.

    1983-01-01

    The Fuel Cycle Risk Analysis Division of Sandia National Laboratories has been funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to develop a methodology for use in assessing the long-term risk from the disposal of radioactive wastes in deep geologic formations. As part of this program, the Dynamic Network (DNET) model was developed to investigate waste/near field interactions associated with the disposal of radioactive wastes in bedded salt formations. The model is a quasi-multi-dimensional network model with capabilities for simulating processes such as fluid flow, heat transport, salt dissolution, salt creep, and the effects of thermal expansion and subsedence on the rock units surrounding the repository. The use of DNET has been demonstrated in the analysis of a hypothetical disposal site containing a bedded salt formation as the host medium for the repository. An example of this demonstration analysis is discussed. Furthermore, the outcome of sensitivity analyses performed on the DNET model are presented

  2. Numerical aspects of the modelling of the local effects of a high level waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreri, J.C.; Ventura, M.A.

    1985-01-01

    The numerical approximations adapted for the development of the computational models for the prediction of the effects of the emplacement of a high level waste repository are reviewed. The problems considered include: the thermal history of the rocky mass constituting the burial media, the flow of underground water and the associated migration of radionuclides in the same media. Results associated with verification of the implemented codes are presented. Their limitations and advantages are discussed. (Author) [es

  3. Comparison of two ordinal prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

    2015-01-01

    system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....

  4. Mixing-controlled uncertainty in long-term predictions of acid rock drainage from heterogeneous waste-rock piles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedretti, D.; Beckie, R. D.; Mayer, K. U.

    2015-12-01

    The chemistry of drainage from waste-rock piles at mine sites is difficult to predict because of a number of uncertainties including heterogeneous reactive mineral content, distribution of minerals, weathering rates and physical flow properties. In this presentation, we examine the effects of mixing on drainage chemistry over timescales of 100s of years. We use a 1-D streamtube conceptualization of flow in waste rocks and multicomponent reactive transport modeling. We simplify the reactive system to consist of acid-producing sulfide minerals and acid-neutralizing carbonate minerals and secondary sulfate and iron oxide minerals. We create multiple realizations of waste-rock piles with distinct distributions of reactive minerals along each flow path and examine the uncertainty of drainage geochemistry through time. The limited mixing of streamtubes that is characteristic of the vertical unsaturated flow in many waste-rock piles, allows individual flowpaths to sustain acid or neutral conditions to the base of the pile, where the streamtubes mix. Consequently, mixing and the acidity/alkalinity balance of the streamtube waters, and not the overall acid- and base-producing mineral contents, control the instantaneous discharge chemistry. Our results show that the limited mixing implied by preferential flow and the heterogeneous distribution of mineral contents lead to large uncertainty in drainage chemistry over short and medium time scales. However, over longer timescales when one of either the acid-producing or neutralizing primary phases is depleted, the drainage chemistry becomes less controlled by mixing and in turn less uncertain. A correct understanding of the temporal variability of uncertainty is key to make informed long-term decisions in mining settings regarding the management of waste material.

  5. Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Paul

    2012-04-01

    Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.

  6. Predictive performance models and multiple task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D.; Larish, Inge; Contorer, Aaron

    1989-01-01

    Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.

  7. Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....

  8. Distributed Model Predictive Control via Dual Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents dual decomposition as a means to coordinate a number of subsystems coupled by state and input constraints. Each subsystem is equipped with a local model predictive controller while a centralized entity manages the subsystems via prices associated with the coupling constraints...

  9. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.3)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.3 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement

  10. Description of waste pretreatment and interfacing systems dynamic simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garbrick, D.J.; Zimmerman, B.D.

    1995-05-01

    The Waste Pretreatment and Interfacing Systems Dynamic Simulation Model was created to investigate the required pretreatment facility processing rates for both high level and low level waste so that the vitrification of tank waste can be completed according to the milestones defined in the Tri-Party Agreement (TPA). In order to achieve this objective, the processes upstream and downstream of the pretreatment facilities must also be included. The simulation model starts with retrieval of tank waste and ends with vitrification for both low level and high level wastes. This report describes the results of three simulation cases: one based on suggested average facility processing rates, one with facility rates determined so that approximately 6 new DSTs are required, and one with facility rates determined so that approximately no new DSTs are required. It appears, based on the simulation results, that reasonable facility processing rates can be selected so that no new DSTs are required by the TWRS program. However, this conclusion must be viewed with respect to the modeling assumptions, described in detail in the report. Also included in the report, in an appendix, are results of two sensitivity cases: one with glass plant water recycle steams recycled versus not recycled, and one employing the TPA SST retrieval schedule versus a more uniform SST retrieval schedule. Both recycling and retrieval schedule appear to have a significant impact on overall tank usage

  11. Prediction of long-term crustal movement for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Tabei, Kazuto; Koide, Hitoshi; Tashiro, Toshiharu

    2000-01-01

    Long-term stability of the geological environment is essential for the safe geological disposal of radioactive waste, for which it is necessary to predict the crustal movement during an assessment period. As a case study, a numerical analysis method for the prediction of crustal movement in Japan is proposed. A three-dimensional elastic analysis by FEM for the geological block structure of the Kinki region and the Awaji-Rokko area is presented. Stability analysis for a disposal cavern is also investigated. (author)

  12. A general model for the dissolution of nuclear waste glasses in salt brine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGrail, B.P.; Strachan, D.M.

    1988-07-01

    A mechanistic model describing a dynamic mass balance between the production and consumption of dissolved silica was found to describe the dissolution of SRL-165 defense waste glass in a high-magnesium (PBB3) brine at a temperature of 90/degree/C. The synergetic effect of the waste package container on the glass dissolution rate was found to depend on a precipitation reaction for a ferrous silicate mineral. The model predicted that the ferrous silicate precipitate should be variable in composition where the iron-silica ratio depended on the metal-to-glass surface area ratio used in the experiment. This prediction was confirmed experimentally by the variable iron-silica ratios observed in filtered leachates. However, the interaction between dissolved silica and iron corrosion products needs to be much better understood before the model could be used with confidence in predicting radionuclide release rates for a salt repository. If the deleterious effects of the iron corrosion products can be shown to be transient, and the fracturing of the glass can be minimized, it appears that the performance of SRL-165 defense waste glass will be near the NRC regulatory criterion for fraction release of one part in 100,000 in PBB3 brine at 90/degree/C under silica-saturated conditions. 47 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  13. A stepwise model to predict monthly streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood Al-Juboori, Anas; Guven, Aytac

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a stepwise model empowered with genetic programming is developed to predict the monthly flows of Hurman River in Turkey and Diyalah and Lesser Zab Rivers in Iraq. The model divides the monthly flow data to twelve intervals representing the number of months in a year. The flow of a month, t is considered as a function of the antecedent month's flow (t - 1) and it is predicted by multiplying the antecedent monthly flow by a constant value called K. The optimum value of K is obtained by a stepwise procedure which employs Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Nonlinear Generalized Reduced Gradient Optimization (NGRGO) as alternative to traditional nonlinear regression technique. The degree of determination and root mean squared error are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The results of the proposed model are compared with the conventional Markovian and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models based on observed monthly flow data. The comparison results based on five different statistic measures show that the proposed stepwise model performed better than Markovian model and ARIMA model. The R2 values of the proposed model range between 0.81 and 0.92 for the three rivers in this study.

  14. Verification and validation of the decision analysis model for assessment of TWRS waste treatment strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awadalla, N.G.; Eaton, S.C.F.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the verification and validation final report for the Decision Analysis Model for Assessment of Tank Waste Remediation System Waste Treatment Strategies. This model is also known as the INSIGHT Model

  15. Modelling sensitivity and uncertainty in a LCA model for waste management systems - EASETECH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Clavreul, Julie; Baumeister, Hubert

    2013-01-01

    In the new model, EASETECH, developed for LCA modelling of waste management systems, a general approach for sensitivity and uncertainty assessment for waste management studies has been implemented. First general contribution analysis is done through a regular interpretation of inventory and impact...

  16. Development of a Thermodynamic Model for the Hanford Tank Waste Operations Simulator - 12193

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, Robert; Seniow, Kendra [Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC, Richland, Washington (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The Hanford Tank Waste Operations Simulator (HTWOS) is the current tool used by the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor for system planning and assessment of different operational strategies. Activities such as waste retrievals in the Hanford tank farms and washing and leaching of waste in the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) are currently modeled in HTWOS. To predict phase compositions during these activities, HTWOS currently uses simple wash and leach factors that were developed many years ago. To improve these predictions, a rigorous thermodynamic framework has been developed based on the multi-component Pitzer ion interaction model for use with several important chemical species in Hanford tank waste. These chemical species are those with the greatest impact on high-level waste glass production in the WTP and whose solubility depends on the processing conditions. Starting with Pitzer parameter coefficients and species chemical potential coefficients collated from open literature sources, reconciliation with published experimental data led to a self-consistent set of coefficients known as the HTWOS Pitzer database. Using Gibbs energy minimization with the Pitzer ion interaction equations in Microsoft Excel,1 a number of successful predictions were made for the solubility of simple mixtures of the chosen species. Currently, this thermodynamic framework is being programmed into HTWOS as the mechanism for determining the solid-liquid phase distributions for the chosen species, replacing their simple wash and leach factors. Starting from a variety of open literature sources, a collection of Pitzer parameters and species chemical potentials, as functions of temperature, was tested for consistency and accuracy by comparison with available experimental thermodynamic data (e.g., osmotic coefficients and solubility). Reconciliation of the initial set of parameter coefficients with the experimental data led to the development of the self-consistent set known

  17. Biosphere models for safety assesment of radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proehl, G; Olyslaegers, G; Zeevaert, T [SCK/CEN, Mol (Belgium); Kanyar, B [University of Veszprem (Hungary). Dept. of Radiochemistry; Pinedo, P; Simon, I [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas Medioambientales y Tecnologicas (CIEMAT), Madrid (Spain); Bergstroem, U; Hallberg, B [Studsvik Ecosafe, Nykoeping (Sweden); Mobbs, S; Chen, Q; Kowe, R [NRPB, Chilton, Didcot (United Kingdom)

    2004-07-01

    The aim of the BioMoSA project has been to contribute in the confidence building of biosphere models, for application in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal. The detailed objectives of this project are: development and test of practical biosphere models for application in long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal to different European locations, identification of features, events and processes that need to be modelled on a site-specific rather than on a generic base, comparison of the results and quantification of the variability of site-specific models developed according to the reference biosphere methodology, development of a generic biosphere tool for application in long term safety studies, comparison of results from site-specific models to those from generic one, Identification of possibilities and limitations for the application of the generic biosphere model. (orig.)

  18. Biosphere models for safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proehl, G.; Olyslaegers, G.; Zeevaert, T.; Kanyar, B.; Bergstroem, U.; Hallberg, B.; Mobbs, S.; Chen, Q.; Kowe, R.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of the BioMoSA project has been to contribute in the confidence building of biosphere models, for application in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal. The detailed objectives of this project are: development and test of practical biosphere models for application in long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal to different European locations, identification of features, events and processes that need to be modelled on a site-specific rather than on a generic base, comparison of the results and quantification of the variability of site-specific models developed according to the reference biosphere methodology, development of a generic biosphere tool for application in long term safety studies, comparison of results from site-specific models to those from generic one, Identification of possibilities and limitations for the application of the generic biosphere model. (orig.)

  19. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.; Cillan, T.

    1993-09-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.4 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement. Those interested in using the SWPM database should refer to the SWPM Database User's Guide. This document is available from the PNL Task M Project Manager (D. L. Stiles, 509-372-4358), the PNL Task L Project Manager (L. L. Armacost, 509-372-4304), the WHC Restoration Projects Section Manager (509-372-1443), or the WHC Waste Characterization Manager (509-372-1193)

  20. Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)

    2014-02-15

    The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  1. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  2. Predictive Models, How good are they?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasch, Helge

    The WAD grading system has been used for more than 20 years by now. It has shown long-term viability, but with strengths and limitations. New bio-psychosocial assessment of the acute whiplash injured subject may provide better prediction of long-term disability and pain. Furthermore, the emerging......-up. It is important to obtain prospective identification of the relevant risk underreported disability could, if we were able to expose these hidden “risk-factors” during our consultations, provide us with better predictive models. New data from large clinical studies will present exciting new genetic risk markers...

  3. Predicting the calorific value of refuse derived fuel from the characteristics of municipal solid waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sivapalan Kathiravale; Muhd Noor Muhd Yunus; Mohamad Puad Abu; Mohamad Azman Che Mat Isa; Mohd Fairus Abdul Farid; Norasalwa Zakaria; Khaironie Mohd Takip; Rohyiza Ba'an

    2006-01-01

    The Imposing need to manage the municipal solid waste generated by society in a proper manner has urged municipalities to look into new management methods, which are not only environmentally friendly but also economically profitable. One such way is by converting this waste material into fuel. Currently, Kajang in the State of Selangor, Malaysia, generates about 700 tons of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) a day. Due to rapid development, lack of land area for new landfill and the environmental impact of raw landfills, the local municipal council has collaborated with a local company in the management of this waste. The company has proposed to convert the MSW to Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF). In view of this, a pilot plant to convert MSW to RDF was erected by the company and begun operation in January 2002. This pilot plant has the capability of converting 15 tons of MSW to 5 tons of RDF. At the same time studies, have been carried out to assess the plant performance, the flue gas analysis, and also the MSW and RDF characteristic. This paper will highlight the findings of the MSW and RDF characterization work carried out over the past year. Sampling and analysis was carried in accordance with ASTM standards. Results of the waste analysis showed that the calorific value of the resulting RDF could be predicted from the physical characteristics as well as the moisture content. Regression analysis on the available data has been used to create equations relating the proximate composition and moisture content of the incoming municipal solid waste to the calorific value of the RDF

  4. NONLINEAR MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF CHEMICAL PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SILVA R. G.

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available A new algorithm for model predictive control is presented. The algorithm utilizes a simultaneous solution and optimization strategy to solve the model's differential equations. The equations are discretized by equidistant collocation, and along with the algebraic model equations are included as constraints in a nonlinear programming (NLP problem. This algorithm is compared with the algorithm that uses orthogonal collocation on finite elements. The equidistant collocation algorithm results in simpler equations, providing a decrease in computation time for the control moves. Simulation results are presented and show a satisfactory performance of this algorithm.

  5. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  6. The international intraval project to study validation of geosphere transport models for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    INTRAVAL is an international project concerned with the use of mathematical models for predicting the potential transport of radioactive substances in the geosphere. Such models are used to help assess the longterm safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. The INTRAVAL project was established to evaluate the validity of these models. Results from a set of selected laboratory and field experiments as well as studies of occurrences of radioactive substances in nature (natural analogues) are compared in a systematic way with model predictions. Discrepancies between observations and predictions are discussed and analyzed

  7. Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to

  8. Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlachos D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.

  9. Characterize and Model Final Waste Formulations and Offgas Solids from Thermal Treatment Processes - FY-98 Final Report for LDRD 2349

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kessinger, Glen Frank; Nelson, Lee Orville; Grandy, Jon Drue; Zuck, Larry Douglas; Kong, Peter Chuen Sun; Anderson, Gail

    1999-08-01

    The purpose of LDRD #2349, Characterize and Model Final Waste Formulations and Offgas Solids from Thermal Treatment Processes, was to develop a set of tools that would allow the user to, based on the chemical composition of a waste stream to be immobilized, predict the durability (leach behavior) of the final waste form and the phase assemblages present in the final waste form. The objectives of the project were: • investigation, testing and selection of thermochemical code • development of auxiliary thermochemical database • synthesis of materials for leach testing • collection of leach data • using leach data for leach model development • thermochemical modeling The progress toward completion of these objectives and a discussion of work that needs to be completed to arrive at a logical finishing point for this project will be presented.

  10. Hydromechanical modelling with application in sealing for underground waste deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasal, Martin, E-mail: martin.hasal@vsb.cz; Michalec, Zdeněk; Blaheta, Radim [Institute of Geonics AS CR, Studentska 1768, 70800 Ostrava-Poruba (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    Hydro-mechanical models appear in simulation of many environmental problems related to construction of engineering barriers for contaminant spreading. The presented work aims in modelling bentonite-sand barriers, which can be used for nuclear waste isolation and similar problems. Particularly, we use hydro-mechanical model coupling unsaturated flow and (nonlinear) elasticity, implement such model in COMSOL software and show application in simulation of an infiltration test (2D axisymmetric model) and the SEALEX Water test WT1 experiment (3D model). Finally, we discuss the needs and possibilities of parallel high performance computing.

  11. Estimating methane emissions from landfills based on rainfall, ambient temperature, and waste composition: The CLEEN model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanjekar, Richa V; Bhatt, Arpita; Altouqui, Said; Jangikhatoonabad, Neda; Durai, Vennila; Sattler, Melanie L; Hossain, M D Sahadat; Chen, Victoria

    2015-12-01

    Accurately estimating landfill methane emissions is important for quantifying a landfill's greenhouse gas emissions and power generation potential. Current models, including LandGEM and IPCC, often greatly simplify treatment of factors like rainfall and ambient temperature, which can substantially impact gas production. The newly developed Capturing Landfill Emissions for Energy Needs (CLEEN) model aims to improve landfill methane generation estimates, but still require inputs that are fairly easy to obtain: waste composition, annual rainfall, and ambient temperature. To develop the model, methane generation was measured from 27 laboratory scale landfill reactors, with varying waste compositions (ranging from 0% to 100%); average rainfall rates of 2, 6, and 12 mm/day; and temperatures of 20, 30, and 37°C, according to a statistical experimental design. Refuse components considered were the major biodegradable wastes, food, paper, yard/wood, and textile, as well as inert inorganic waste. Based on the data collected, a multiple linear regression equation (R(2)=0.75) was developed to predict first-order methane generation rate constant values k as functions of waste composition, annual rainfall, and temperature. Because, laboratory methane generation rates exceed field rates, a second scale-up regression equation for k was developed using actual gas-recovery data from 11 landfills in high-income countries with conventional operation. The Capturing Landfill Emissions for Energy Needs (CLEEN) model was developed by incorporating both regression equations into the first-order decay based model for estimating methane generation rates from landfills. CLEEN model values were compared to actual field data from 6 US landfills, and to estimates from LandGEM and IPCC. For 4 of the 6 cases, CLEEN model estimates were the closest to actual. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modeling unsteady-state VOC transport in simulated waste drums

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liekhus, K.J.; Gresham, G.L.; Peterson, E.S.; Rae, C.; Hotz, N.J.; Connolly, M.J.

    1994-01-01

    This report is a revision of an EG ampersand G Idaho informal report originally titled Modeling VOC Transport in Simulated Waste Drums. A volatile organic compound (VOC) transport model has been developed to describe unsteady-state VOC permeation and diffusion within a waste drum. Model equations account for three primary mechanisms for VOC transport from a void volume within the drum. These mechanisms are VOC permeation across a polymer boundary, VOC diffusion across an opening in a volume boundary, and VOC solubilization in a polymer boundary. A series of lab-scale experiments was performed in which the VOC concentration was measured in simulated waste drums under different conditions. A lab-scale simulated waste drum consisted of a sized-down 55-gal metal drum containing a modified rigid polyethylene drum liner. Four polyethylene bags were sealed inside a large polyethylene bag, supported by a wire cage, and placed inside the drum liner. The small bags were filled with VOC-air gas mixture and the VOC concentration was measured throughout the drum over a period of time. Test variables included the type of VOC-air gas mixtures introduced into the small bags, the small bag closure type, and the presence or absence of a variable external heat source. Model results were calculated for those trials where the permeability had been measured

  13. Groundwater Impacts of Radioactive Wastes and Associated Environmental Modeling Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Liu, Chongxuan

    2012-11-01

    This article provides a review of the major sources of radioactive wastes and their impacts on groundwater contamination. The review discusses the major biogeochemical processes that control the transport and fate of radionuclide contaminants in groundwater, and describe the evolution of mathematical models designed to simulate and assess the transport and transformation of radionuclides in groundwater.

  14. Overview of geochemical modeling needs for nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isherwood, D.J.; Wolery, T.J.

    1985-01-01

    Geochemical modeling needs for nuclear waste management are discussed with an emphasis on data base development and computer code. Other areas for future research include: precipitation kinetics, fixed fugacity, sorption, glasslt. slashwater interactions, redox disequilibrium and kinetics, radiolysis, solid solutions, and isotopic fractionation. 15 references

  15. Waste Reduction Model (WARM) Resources for Small Businesses and Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief overview of how EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM) can be used by small businesses and organizations. The page includes a brief summary of uses of WARM for the audience and links to other resources.

  16. Models for estimation of service life of concrete barriers in low-level radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walton, J.C.; Plansky, L.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1990-09-01

    Concrete barriers will be used as intimate parts of systems for isolation of low level radioactive wastes subsequent to disposal. This work reviews mathematical models for estimating the degradation rate of concrete in typical service environments. The models considered cover sulfate attack, reinforcement corrosion, calcium hydroxide leaching, carbonation, freeze/thaw, and cracking. Additionally, fluid flow, mass transport, and geochemical properties of concrete are briefly reviewed. Example calculations included illustrate the types of predictions expected of the models. 79 refs., 24 figs., 6 tabs

  17. Models for estimation of service life of concrete barriers in low-level radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walton, J.C.; Plansky, L.E.; Smith, R.W. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA))

    1990-09-01

    Concrete barriers will be used as intimate parts of systems for isolation of low level radioactive wastes subsequent to disposal. This work reviews mathematical models for estimating the degradation rate of concrete in typical service environments. The models considered cover sulfate attack, reinforcement corrosion, calcium hydroxide leaching, carbonation, freeze/thaw, and cracking. Additionally, fluid flow, mass transport, and geochemical properties of concrete are briefly reviewed. Example calculations included illustrate the types of predictions expected of the models. 79 refs., 24 figs., 6 tabs.

  18. Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t

  19. Coupled geomechanical/hydrological modeling: an overview of basalt waste isolation project studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baca, R.G.; Case, J.B.; Patricio, J.G.

    1980-07-01

    Basalt Waste Isolation Project investigations of the Columbia River basalts are multi-disciplinary in nature with a broad scope spanning such areas as geology, seismology, geochemistry, hydrology, rock mechanics, and many other disciplines as well. In this paper, an overview is presented which surveys recent work on numerical modeling of geomechanical and hydrological processes in a basalt rock environment. A major objective of the ongoing numerical modeling work is to establish a predictive technology base with which to: interpret the interrelationships between geomechanical behavior of rock media, the natural hydrologic phenomena, and repository conditions; evaluate the effectiveness of preconceptual repository designs and assist in the design of in situ field testing; and assess the waste isolation capability of candidate host rocks within the Columbia River basalts. To accomplish this objective, a systems approach has been adopted which is based on the use of digital simulation models

  20. Thermodynamic sorption modelling in support of radioactive waste disposal safety cases - NEA sorption project phase III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    and uncertainty analysis; 4. Approaches for applying TSMs to intact and complex materials: Introduction; Real substrates (What makes them complex?); Determination and estimation of TSM parameters in real systems; TSM application for Kd estimation on chemically complex substrates; Sorption modelling in clay rocks and compacted clay systems; TSM applications to crystalline host rocks; Application of generalised TSMs to complex and intact materials: concluding remarks and key messages; 5 - General guidelines and recommendations: Framework for TSM applications in the context of radioactive waste disposal; Purposes and predictive capabilities of TSMs; Strategies for building TSMs; Recommendations; Building a scientifically defensible, calibrated TSM for radioactive waste applications; Concluding comments; 6 - References; 7 - Annexes: List of authors and external experts; List of acronyms

  1. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  2. SEM Model Medical Solid Waste Hospital Management In Medan City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simarmata, Verawaty; Pandia, Setiaty; Mawengkang, Herman

    2018-01-01

    In daily activities, hospitals, as one of the important health care unit, generate both medical solid waste and non-medical solid waste. The occurrence of medical solid waste could be from the results of treatment activities, such as, in the treatment room for a hospital inpatient, general clinic, a dental clinic, a mother and child clinic, laboratories and pharmacies. Most of the medical solid waste contains infectious and hazardous materials. Therefore it should be managed properly, otherwise it could be a source of new infectious for the community around the hospital as well as for health workers themselves. Efforts surveillance of various environmental factors need to be applied in accordance with the principles of sanitation focuses on environmental cleanliness. One of the efforts that need to be done in improving the quality of the environment is to undertake waste management activities, because with proper waste management is the most important in order to achieve an optimal degree of human health. Health development in Indonesian aims to achieve a future in which the Indonesian people live in a healthy environment, its people behave clean and healthy, able to reach quality health services, fair and equitable, so as to have optimal health status, health development paradigm anchored to the healthy. The healthy condition of the individual and society can be influenced by the environment. Poor environmental quality is a cause of various health problems. Efforts surveillance of various environmental factors need to be applied in accordance with the principles of sanitation focuses on environmental cleanliness. This paper proposes a model for managing the medical solid waste in hospitals in Medan city, in order to create healthy environment around hospitals.

  3. Radioactive waste disposal assessment - overview of biosphere processes and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughtrey, P.J.

    1992-09-01

    This report provides an overview of biosphere processes and models in the general context of the radiological assessment of radioactive waste disposal as a basis for HMIP's response to biosphere aspects of Nirex's submissions for disposal of radioactive wastes in a purpose-built repository at Sellafield, Cumbria. The overview takes into account published information from the UK as available from Nirex's safety and assessment research programme and HMIP's disposal assessment programme, as well as that available from studies in the UK and elsewhere. (Author)

  4. What a public-relations-model regarding radioactive waste implicates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohnishi, Teruaki [CRC Research Institute, Inc., Tokyo (Japan)]|[Energy Research Center Wakasa Bay, Fukui (Japan)

    1996-12-31

    The behavior of public attitude to radioactive waste with time was investigated by using a mathematical model which was developed for estimating the extent of attitude change, being based on the assumption that the change of public attitude to a certain subject is caused by the information environment mainly formed by the newsmedia. Investigations were also made on the extent the public relations activity can contribute to the change of public opinion for the radioactive waste, and on the method of assortment and execution of various types of activity which brings the maximum change of attitude under a given condition of budget.

  5. Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Grüne, Lars

    2017-01-01

    This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...

  6. Baryogenesis model predicting antimatter in the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirilova, D.

    2003-01-01

    Cosmic ray and gamma-ray data do not rule out antimatter domains in the Universe, separated at distances bigger than 10 Mpc from us. Hence, it is interesting to analyze the possible generation of vast antimatter structures during the early Universe evolution. We discuss a SUSY-condensate baryogenesis model, predicting large separated regions of matter and antimatter. The model provides generation of the small locally observed baryon asymmetry for a natural initial conditions, it predicts vast antimatter domains, separated from the matter ones by baryonically empty voids. The characteristic scale of antimatter regions and their distance from the matter ones is in accordance with observational constraints from cosmic ray, gamma-ray and cosmic microwave background anisotropy data

  7. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-01-01

    Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre t...

  8. Predictive Modeling in Actinide Chemistry and Catalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-16

    These are slides from a presentation on predictive modeling in actinide chemistry and catalysis. The following topics are covered in these slides: Structures, bonding, and reactivity (bonding can be quantified by optical probes and theory, and electronic structures and reaction mechanisms of actinide complexes); Magnetic resonance properties (transition metal catalysts with multi-nuclear centers, and NMR/EPR parameters); Moving to more complex systems (surface chemistry of nanomaterials, and interactions of ligands with nanoparticles); Path forward and conclusions.

  9. The Sort on Radioactive Waste Type model: A method to sort single-shell tanks into characteristic groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, J.G.; Simpson, B.C.

    1994-04-01

    The Sort on Radioactive Waste Type (SORWT) model presents a method to categorize Hanford Site single-shell tanks (SSTs) into groups of tank expected to exhibit similar chemical and physical characteristics based on their major waste types and processing histories. This model has identified 29 different waste-type groups encompassing 135 of the 149 SSTs and 93% of the total waste volume in SSTs. The remaining 14 SSTs and associated wastes could not be grouped according to the established criteria and were placed in an ungrouped category. This letter report will detail the assumptions and methodologies used to develop the SORWT model and present the grouping results. In the near future, the validity of the predicted groups will be statistically tested using analysis of variance of characterization data obtained from recent (post-1989) core sampling and analysis activities. In addition, the SORWT model will be used to project the nominal waste characteristics of entire waste type groups that have some recent characterization data available. These subsequent activities will be documented along with these initial results in a comprehensive, formal PNL report cleared for public release by September 1994

  10. Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.

    2018-04-01

    Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough

  11. Correlation models for waste tank sludges and slurries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahoney, L.A.; Trent, D.S.

    1995-07-01

    This report presents the results of work conducted to support the TEMPEST computer modeling under the Flammable Gas Program (FGP) and to further the comprehension of the physical processes occurring in the Hanford waste tanks. The end products of this task are correlation models (sets of algorithms) that can be added to the TEMPEST computer code to improve the reliability of its simulation of the physical processes that occur in Hanford tanks. The correlation models can be used to augment, not only the TEMPEST code, but other computer codes that can simulate sludge motion and flammable gas retention. This report presents the correlation models, also termed submodels, that have been developed to date. The submodel-development process is an ongoing effort designed to increase our understanding of sludge behavior and improve our ability to realistically simulate the sludge fluid characteristics that have an impact on safety analysis. The effort has employed both literature searches and data correlation to provide an encyclopedia of tank waste properties in forms that are relatively easy to use in modeling waste behavior. These properties submodels will be used in other tasks to simulate waste behavior in the tanks. Density, viscosity, yield strength, surface tension, heat capacity, thermal conductivity, salt solubility, and ammonia and water vapor pressures were compiled for solutions and suspensions of sodium nitrate and other salts (where data were available), and the data were correlated by linear regression. In addition, data for simulated Hanford waste tank supernatant were correlated to provide density, solubility, surface tension, and vapor pressure submodels for multi-component solutions containing sodium hydroxide, sodium nitrate, sodium nitrite, and sodium aluminate

  12. Development of a unit cell model for interim performance assessment of vitrified low level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kline, N.W.

    1995-09-01

    The unit cell modeling approach has been developed and used in analysis of some design options for a vitrified low level waste disposal facility. The unit cell modeling approach is likely to be useful in interim performance assessment for the facility. The present unit cell model will probably need to be refitted in terms of some model parameters for the latter purpose. Two present disposal facility concepts differ in the length of a capillary barrier proposed to limit effective recharge through the top of the facility. Results of the study summarized herein suggest design of a capillary barrier which can reduce a recharge rate of 0.1 cm/yr by one or two orders of magnitude seems feasible for both concepts. A benchmark comparison of the unit cell model against a full facility model shows comparable predictive accuracy in less than one percent of the computer time. Results suggest that model parameters include capillary barrier performance, inter-canister spacing, rate of moisture withdrawal due to glass corrosion, contaminant inventory, and the well interceptor factor. It is also important that variations of waste form hydraulic parameters suggest that transport through the waste form is dominated by diffusion

  13. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  14. FRIDA: A model for the generation and handling of solid waste in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Helge V.; Møller Andersen, Frits

    2012-01-01

    Since 1994, Danish waste treatment plants have been obliged to report to the Danish EPA the annual amounts of waste treated. Applying these data, we analyse the development, link amounts of waste to economic and demographic variables, and present a model for the generation and treatment of waste...... in Denmark. Using the model and official projections of the economic development, a baseline projection for the generation and treatment of waste is presented. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  15. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  16. Waste Disposal: Long-term Performance Studies for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Hydrogeological Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marivoet, J

    2000-07-01

    The main objectives of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on long-term performance studies are: (1) to develop a methodology and associated tools for assessing the long-term safety of geological disposal of all types of radioactive waste in clay formations and of the shallow-land burial of low-level waste; (2) to assess the performance and to identify the most influential elements of integrated repository systems for the disposal of radioactive waste; (3) to collect geological, piezometric and hydraulic data required for studying the hydrogeological system in north-eastern Belgium; (4) to develop a regional aquifer model for north-easter Belgium and to apply it in the performance assessments for the Mol site; (5) to test, verify and improve computer codes used in the performance assessment calculations of waste disposal concepts and contaminated sites (the computer codes simulate water flow and transport of radionuclides in engineered barriers, aquifers and contaminated sites). The scientific programme and achievements in 1999 are described.

  17. Two stage neural network modelling for robust model predictive control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patan, Krzysztof

    2018-01-01

    The paper proposes a novel robust model predictive control scheme realized by means of artificial neural networks. The neural networks are used twofold: to design the so-called fundamental model of a plant and to catch uncertainty associated with the plant model. In order to simplify the optimization process carried out within the framework of predictive control an instantaneous linearization is applied which renders it possible to define the optimization problem in the form of constrained quadratic programming. Stability of the proposed control system is also investigated by showing that a cost function is monotonically decreasing with respect to time. Derived robust model predictive control is tested and validated on the example of a pneumatic servomechanism working at different operating regimes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  19. Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coker, Robert F.; Knox, James C.

    2016-01-01

    As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.

  20. Study on high-level waste geological disposal metadata model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Xiaobin; Wang Changhong; Zhu Hehua; Li Xiaojun

    2008-01-01

    This paper expatiated the concept of metadata and its researches within china and abroad, then explain why start the study on the metadata model of high-level nuclear waste deep geological disposal project. As reference to GML, the author first set up DML under the framework of digital underground space engineering. Based on DML, a standardized metadata employed in high-level nuclear waste deep geological disposal project is presented. Then, a Metadata Model with the utilization of internet is put forward. With the standardized data and CSW services, this model may solve the problem in the data sharing and exchanging of different data form A metadata editor is build up in order to search and maintain metadata based on this model. (authors)

  1. Training courses on integrated safety assessment modelling for waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallants, D.

    2007-01-01

    Near-surface or deep repositories of radioactive waste are being developed and evaluated all over the world. Also, existing repositories for low- and intermediate-level waste often need to be re-evaluated to extend their license or to obtain permission for final closure. The evaluation encompasses both a technical feasibility as well as a safety analysis. The long term safety is usually demonstrated by means of performance or safety assessment. For this purpose computer models are used that calculate the migration of radionuclides from the conditioned radioactive waste, through engineered barriers to the environment (groundwater, surface water, and biosphere). Integrated safety assessment modelling addresses all relevant radionuclide pathways from source to receptor (man), using in combination various computer codes in which the most relevant physical, chemical, mechanical, or even microbiological processes are mathematically described. SCK-CEN organizes training courses in Integrated safety assessment modelling that are intended for individuals who have either a controlling or supervising role within the national radwaste agencies or regulating authorities, or for technical experts that carry out the actual post-closure safety assessment for an existing or new repository. Courses are organised by the Department of Waste and Disposal

  2. Mixing Modeling Analysis For SRS Salt Waste Disposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.

    2011-01-01

    Nuclear waste at Savannah River Site (SRS) waste tanks consists of three different types of waste forms. They are the lighter salt solutions referred to as supernate, the precipitated salts as salt cake, and heavier fine solids as sludge. The sludge is settled on the tank floor. About half of the residual waste radioactivity is contained in the sludge, which is only about 8 percentage of the total waste volume. Mixing study to be evaluated here for the Salt Disposition Integration (SDI) project focuses on supernate preparations in waste tanks prior to transfer to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The methods to mix and blend the contents of the SRS blend tanks were evalutaed to ensure that the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank such as Tank 50H to the SWPF feed tank. The work consists of two principal objectives to investigate two different pumps. One objective is to identify a suitable pumping arrangement that will adequately blend/mix two miscible liquids to obtain a uniform composition in the tank with a minimum level of sludge solid particulate in suspension. The other is to estimate the elevation in the tank at which the transfer pump inlet should be located where the solid concentration of the entrained fluid remains below the acceptance criterion (0.09 wt% or 1200 mg/liter) during transfer operation to the SWPF. Tank 50H is a Waste Tank that will be used to prepare batches of salt feed for SWPF. The salt feed must be a homogeneous solution satisfying the acceptance criterion of the solids entrainment during transfer operation. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The modeling results will provide quantitative design and operation information during the mixing/blending process and the transfer operation of the blended

  3. Modeling of container failure and radionuclide release from a geologic nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chang Lak; Kim, Jhin Wung; Choi, Kwang Sub; Cho, Chan Hee

    1989-02-01

    Generally, two processes are involved in leaching and dissolution; (1) chemical reactions and (2) mass transfer by diffusion. The chemical reaction controls the dissolution rates only during the early stage of exposure to groundwater. The exterior-field mass transfer may control the long-term dissolution rates from the waste solid in a geologic repository. Masstransfer analyses rely on detailed and careful application of the governing equations that describe the mechanistic processes of transport of material between and within phases. We develop analytical models to predict the radionuclide release rate into the groundwater with five different approaches: a measurement-based model, a diffusion model, a kinetics model, a diffusion-and-kinetics model, and a modified diffusion model. We also collected experimental leaching data for a partial validation of the radionuclide release model based on the mass transfer theory. Among various types of corrosions, pitting is the most significant because of its rapid growth. The failure time of the waste container, which also can be interpreted as the containment time, is a milestone of the performance of a repository. We develop analytical models to predict the pit growth rate on the container surface with three different approaches: an experimental method, a statistical method, and a mathematical method based on the diffusion theory. (Author)

  4. Performance modeling of concrete/metal barriers used in low-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, R.; Chau, Nam; Icenhour, A.S.; Godbee, H.W.; Tharp, M.L.

    1993-01-01

    Low-Level radioactive wastes generated in government and commercial operations involving nuclear materials need to be isolated from the environment almost in perpetuity. An increasing number of disposal sites are using concrete/metal barriers (so called ''engineered'' barriers) to isolate these wastes from the environment. Two major concerns hamper the use of engineered barriers; namely, the lack of ability to reliably predict the service life of these barriers and to estimate the confidence level of the service life predicted. Computer codes (SOURCE1 and SOURCE2) for estimating the long-term (centuries to millennia) service life of these barriers are presented. These codes use mathematical models (based on past observations, currently accepted data, and established theories) to predict behavior into the future. Processes modeled for concrete degradation include sulfate attack, calcium hydroxide leaching, and reinforcement corrosion. The loss of structural integrity due to cracking is also modeled. Mechanisms modeled for nuclide leaching include advection and diffusion. The coupled or linked effects of these models are addressed in the codes. Outputs from the codes are presented and analyzed

  5. Prediction of combustible waste generation and estimate of potential energy by applying waste to energy technologies in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jang-Soo; Cho, Sung-Jin; Jung, Hae-Young; Lee, Ki-Bae; Seo, Yong-Chil

    2010-01-01

    In 2007 total waste generation rate in Korea was 318,670 ton,day. In general waste generation rate shows rising trend since 2000. Wastes are composed of municipal waste 14.9 % industrial waste 34.1 % and construction waste 51.0 %. Treatment of wastes by recycling was 81.1 % landfill 11.1 % incineration 5.3 % and ocean dumping 2.4 %. National waste energy policies have been influenced by various factors such as environmental problem economy technology level (could be made energy), and so on. Korea has the worlds third dense population density environmental pollution load per unit land area is the highest in OECD countries caused due to the fast development in economy, industrialization and urbanization in recent. Also, land area per person is just 2,072 m 2 . Landfill capacity reaches the upper limit, industrial waste generation is increasing. Searching new-renewable energy is vital to substitute fossil fuel considering its increasing price. Korea is the world's 10th biggest energy consuming country and 97% of energy depends on importing. Korea aims to increases supply of new-renewable energy by 5% until the 2011. In this study, we computed the amount of combustible waste from municipality generated by the multiple regression analysis. The existing technologies for converting waste to energy were surveyed and the technologies under development or utilizing in future were also investigated. Based on the technology utilization, the amount of energy using waste to energy technology could be estimated in future. (author)

  6. Geochemical Testing And Model Development - Residual Tank Waste Test Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantrell, K.J.; Connelly, M.P.

    2010-01-01

    This Test Plan describes the testing and chemical analyses release rate studies on tank residual samples collected following the retrieval of waste from the tank. This work will provide the data required to develop a contaminant release model for the tank residuals from both sludge and salt cake single-shell tanks. The data are intended for use in the long-term performance assessment and conceptual model development.

  7. Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Kheradmandi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

  8. Healthcare waste management: an interpretive structural modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Vikas; Anbanandam, Ramesh

    2016-06-13

    Purpose - The World Health Organization identified infectious healthcare waste as a threat to the environment and human health. India's current medical waste management system has limitations, which lead to ineffective and inefficient waste handling practices. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to: first, identify the important barriers that hinder India's healthcare waste management (HCWM) systems; second, classify operational, tactical and strategical issues to discuss the managerial implications at different management levels; and third, define all barriers into four quadrants depending upon their driving and dependence power. Design/methodology/approach - India's HCWM system barriers were identified through the literature, field surveys and brainstorming sessions. Interrelationships among all the barriers were analyzed using interpretive structural modeling (ISM). Fuzzy-Matrice d'Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée á un Classement (MICMAC) analysis was used to classify HCWM barriers into four groups. Findings - In total, 25 HCWM system barriers were identified and placed in 12 different ISM model hierarchy levels. Fuzzy-MICMAC analysis placed eight barriers in the second quadrant, five in third and 12 in fourth quadrant to define their relative ISM model importance. Research limitations/implications - The study's main limitation is that all the barriers were identified through a field survey and barnstorming sessions conducted only in Uttarakhand, Northern State, India. The problems in implementing HCWM practices may differ with the region, hence, the current study needs to be replicated in different Indian states to define the waste disposal strategies for hospitals. Practical implications - The model will help hospital managers and Pollution Control Boards, to plan their resources accordingly and make policies, targeting key performance areas. Originality/value - The study is the first attempt to identify India's HCWM system barriers and prioritize

  9. Testing and intercomparison of model predictions of radionuclide migration from a hypothetical area source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, R.S.; Yu, C.; Zeevaert, T.; Olyslaegers, G.; Amado, V.; Setlow, L.W.; Waggitt, P.W.

    2008-01-01

    This work was carried out as part of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS program. One aim of the work was to develop scenarios for testing computer models designed for simulating radionuclide migration in the environment, and to use these scenarios for testing the models and comparing predictions from different models. This paper presents the results of the development and testing of a hypothetical area source of NORM waste/residue using two complex computer models and one screening model. There are significant differences in the methods used to model groundwater flow between the complex models. The hypothetical source was used because of its relative simplicity and because of difficulties encountered in finding comprehensive, well-validated data sets for real sites. The source consisted of a simple repository of uniform thickness, with 1 Bq g -1 of uranium-238 ( 238 U) (in secular equilibrium with its decay products) distributed uniformly throughout the waste. These approximate real situations, such as engineered repositories, waste rock piles, tailings piles and landfills. Specification of the site also included the physical layout, vertical stratigraphic details, soil type for each layer of material, precipitation and runoff details, groundwater flow parameters, and meteorological data. Calculations were carried out with and without a cover layer of clean soil above the waste, for people working and living at different locations relative to the waste. The predictions of the two complex models showed several differences which need more detailed examination. The scenario is available for testing by other modelers. It can also be used as a planning tool for remediation work or for repository design, by changing the scenario parameters and running the models for a range of different inputs. Further development will include applying models to real scenarios and integrating environmental impact assessment methods with the safety assessment tools currently

  10. Plant control using embedded predictive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godbole, S.S.; Gabler, W.E.; Eschbach, S.L.

    1990-01-01

    B and W recently undertook the design of an advanced light water reactor control system. A concept new to nuclear steam system (NSS) control was developed. The concept, which is called the Predictor-Corrector, uses mathematical models of portions of the controlled NSS to calculate, at various levels within the system, demand and control element position signals necessary to satisfy electrical demand. The models give the control system the ability to reduce overcooling and undercooling of the reactor coolant system during transients and upsets. Two types of mathematical models were developed for use in designing and testing the control system. One model was a conventional, comprehensive NSS model that responds to control system outputs and calculates the resultant changes in plant variables that are then used as inputs to the control system. Two other models, embedded in the control system, were less conventional, inverse models. These models accept as inputs plant variables, equipment states, and demand signals and predict plant operating conditions and control element states that will satisfy the demands. This paper reports preliminary results of closed-loop Reactor Coolant (RC) pump trip and normal load reduction testing of the advanced concept. Results of additional transient testing, and of open and closed loop stability analyses will be reported as they are available

  11. Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, Nato; Godoladze, Tea; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino

    2016-04-01

    Ground motion prediction models (GMPMs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Since 2003 development of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models is obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. In this study site ground conditions are additionally considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. Empirical ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This work presents a holistic framework for the development of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA) GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain.

  12. Modeling and Prediction of Krueger Device Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yueping; Burley, Casey L.; Thomas, Russell H.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a noise prediction model for aircraft Krueger flap devices that are considered as alternatives to leading edge slotted slats. The prediction model decomposes the total Krueger noise into four components, generated by the unsteady flows, respectively, in the cove under the pressure side surface of the Krueger, in the gap between the Krueger trailing edge and the main wing, around the brackets supporting the Krueger device, and around the cavity on the lower side of the main wing. For each noise component, the modeling follows a physics-based approach that aims at capturing the dominant noise-generating features in the flow and developing correlations between the noise and the flow parameters that control the noise generation processes. The far field noise is modeled using each of the four noise component's respective spectral functions, far field directivities, Mach number dependencies, component amplitudes, and other parametric trends. Preliminary validations are carried out by using small scale experimental data, and two applications are discussed; one for conventional aircraft and the other for advanced configurations. The former focuses on the parametric trends of Krueger noise on design parameters, while the latter reveals its importance in relation to other airframe noise components.

  13. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi

  14. Evaluating Predictive Models of Software Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaschini, V.; Canaparo, M.; Ronchieri, E.; Salomoni, D.

    2014-06-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  15. Predicting FLDs Using a Multiscale Modeling Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z.; Loy, C.; Wang, E.; Hegadekatte, V.

    2017-09-01

    The measurement of a single forming limit diagram (FLD) requires significant resources and is time consuming. We have developed a multiscale modeling scheme to predict FLDs using a combination of limited laboratory testing, crystal plasticity (VPSC) modeling, and dual sequential-stage finite element (ABAQUS/Explicit) modeling with the Marciniak-Kuczynski (M-K) criterion to determine the limit strain. We have established a means to work around existing limitations in ABAQUS/Explicit by using an anisotropic yield locus (e.g., BBC2008) in combination with the M-K criterion. We further apply a VPSC model to reduce the number of laboratory tests required to characterize the anisotropic yield locus. In the present work, we show that the predicted FLD is in excellent agreement with the measured FLD for AA5182 in the O temper. Instead of 13 different tests as for a traditional FLD determination within Novelis, our technique uses just four measurements: tensile properties in three orientations; plane strain tension; biaxial bulge; and the sheet crystallographic texture. The turnaround time is consequently far less than for the traditional laboratory measurement of the FLD.

  16. PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (P≤ 0.05 among cultivars. Paceño and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients ≥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (P≤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.

  17. Evaluating predictive models of software quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D

    2014-01-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  18. Gamma-Ray Pulsars Models and Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Harding, A K

    2001-01-01

    Pulsed emission from gamma-ray pulsars originates inside the magnetosphere, from radiation by charged particles accelerated near the magnetic poles or in the outer gaps. In polar cap models, the high energy spectrum is cut off by magnetic pair production above an energy that is dependent on the local magnetic field strength. While most young pulsars with surface fields in the range B = 10^{12} - 10^{13} G are expected to have high energy cutoffs around several GeV, the gamma-ray spectra of old pulsars having lower surface fields may extend to 50 GeV. Although the gamma-ray emission of older pulsars is weaker, detecting pulsed emission at high energies from nearby sources would be an important confirmation of polar cap models. Outer gap models predict more gradual high-energy turnovers at around 10 GeV, but also predict an inverse Compton component extending to TeV energies. Detection of pulsed TeV emission, which would not survive attenuation at the polar caps, is thus an important test of outer gap models. N...

  19. Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim T. Yousif

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available   Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature.    The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor  affecting the output of the model.     The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.

  20. Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

    2015-01-01

    Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction.

  1. Mental Models of Radioactivity and Attitudes towards Radioactive Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleznik, N.

    2010-01-01

    Siting of a radioactive waste repository presents a great problem in almost every country that produces such waste. The main problem is not a technical one, but socio-psychological, namely the acceptability of this kind of repository. Previous research on people's perception of the LILW repository construction, their attitudes towards radioactive waste, their willingness to accept it, indicated significant differences in answers of experts and lay persons, mainly regarding evaluation of the consequences of repository construction. Based on the findings of pilot investigations a mental model approach to the radioactivity, radioactive waste and repository was used as a method for development better risk communication strategies with local communities. The mental models were obtained by adjustment of the method developed by Morgan and co-workers where expert model of radioactivity is compared with mental model of lay people obtained through individual opened interviews. Additional information on trust, risk perception, role of main actors in the site selection process and their credibility was gained with the overall questionnaire on the representative sample of Slovenian population. Results of the survey confirm some already known findings, in addition we gained new cognitions and with analyses obtained the relationships and ratios between different factors, which are characteristics both for the general public and for the public, which is involved in the site selection process for a longer period and has been living beside a nuclear power plant for one generation. People have in general negative associations regarding the repository, the perceived risk for nuclear facilities is high, and trust in representatives of governmental institutions is low. Mental models of radioactivity, radioactive waste and the LILW repository are mostly irregular and differ from the experts' models. This is particularly valid for the models of radioactivity and the influences of

  2. Modeling the energy content of combustible ship-scrapping waste at Alang-Sosiya, India, using multiple regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, M Srinivasa; Basha, Shaik; Joshi, H V; Sravan Kumar, V G; Jha, B; Ghosh, P K

    2005-01-01

    Alang-Sosiya is the largest ship-scrapping yard in the world, established in 1982. Every year an average of 171 ships having a mean weight of 2.10 x 10(6)(+/-7.82 x 10(5)) of light dead weight tonnage (LDT) being scrapped. Apart from scrapped metals, this yard generates a massive amount of combustible solid waste in the form of waste wood, plastic, insulation material, paper, glass wool, thermocol pieces (polyurethane foam material), sponge, oiled rope, cotton waste, rubber, etc. In this study multiple regression analysis was used to develop predictive models for energy content of combustible ship-scrapping solid wastes. The scope of work comprised qualitative and quantitative estimation of solid waste samples and performing a sequential selection procedure for isolating variables. Three regression models were developed to correlate the energy content (net calorific values (LHV)) with variables derived from material composition, proximate and ultimate analyses. The performance of these models for this particular waste complies well with the equations developed by other researchers (Dulong, Steuer, Scheurer-Kestner and Bento's) for estimating energy content of municipal solid waste.

  3. Three multimedia models used at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; Fthenakis, V.M.; Holtzman, S.; Sun, L.C.; Rambaugh, J.O.; Potter, S.

    1996-02-01

    Multimedia models are used commonly in the initial phases of the remediation process where technical interest is focused on determining the relative importance of various exposure pathways. This report provides an approach for evaluating and critically reviewing the capabilities of multimedia models. This study focused on three specific models MEPAS Version 3.0, MMSOILS Version 2.2, and PRESTO-EPA-CPG Version 2.0. These models evaluate the transport and fate of contaminants from source to receptor through more than a single pathway. The presence of radioactive and mixed wastes at a site poses special problems. Hence, in this report, restrictions associated with the selection and application of multimedia models for sites contaminated with radioactive and mixed wastes are highlighted. This report begins with a brief introduction to the concept of multimedia modeling, followed by an overview of the three models. The remaining chapters present more technical discussions of the issues associated with each compartment and their direct application to the specific models. In these analyses, the following components are discussed: source term; air transport; ground water transport; overland flow, runoff, and surface water transport; food chain modeling; exposure assessment; dosimetry/risk assessment; uncertainty; default parameters. The report concludes with a description of evolving updates to the model; these descriptions were provided by the model developers

  4. Modeling of Sulfate Double-Salt in Nuclear Wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toghiani, B.; Lindner, J.S.; Weber, C.F.; Hunt, R.D.

    2000-01-01

    The Environmental Simulation Program (ESP) continues to adequately predict the solubility of most key chemical systems in the Hanford tank waste. For example, the ESP predictions were in fair agreement with the solubility experiments for the fluoride-phosphate system, although ESP probably underestimates the aqueous amounts. Due to the importance of this system in the formation of pipeline plugs, additional experiments have been made at elevated temperatures, and improvements to the ESP database will be made. ESP encountered problems with sulfate systems because the Public database for ESP does not include anhydrous sodium sulfate in mixed solutions below 32.4 C. This limitation leads to convergence problems and to spurious predictions of solubility near the transition point with sodium sulfate decahydrate when other salts such as sodium nitrate are present. However, ESP was able to make reasonable solubility predictions with a corrected database, demonstrating the need to validate and document the various databases that can be used by ESP. Even though ESP does not include the sulfate-nitrate double salt, this omission does not appear to be a major problem. The solubility predictions with and without the sulfate-nitrate double salt are comparable. In sharp contrast, the sulfate-fluoride double salt is included, but ESP still underestimates solubility in some cases. This problem can misrepresent the ionic strength of the solution, which is an important factor in the formation of pipeline plugs. Solubility tests on the sulfate-fluoride system are planned to provide additional data at higher temperatures and in caustic solutions. These results will be used to improve the range and accuracy of ESP predictions. ESP will continue to provide important predictions for waste processing operations while being evaluated and improved. For example, ESP will be used to determine the amount of water for the saltcake dissolution efforts at Hanford. When ESP underestimates the

  5. Modelling the work flow of a nuclear waste management program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeyer Mortensen, K. [Aarhus Univ., Computer Science Dept. (Denmark); Pinci, V. [Meta Software Corporation, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1997-03-01

    In this paper we describe a modelling project to improve a nuclear waste management program in charge of the creation of a new system for the permanent disposal of nuclear waste. SADT (Structural Analysis and Design Technique) is used in order to provide a work-flow description of the functions to be performed by the waste management program. This description is then translated into a number of Coloured Petri Nets (CPN or CP-nets) corresponding to different program functions where additional behavioural inscriptions provide basis for simulation. Each of these CP-nets is simulated to produce timed event charts that are useful for understanding the behaviour of the program functions under different scenarios. Then all the CPN models are linked together to form a single stand-alone application that is useful for validating the interaction and cooperation between the different program functions. A technique for linking executable CPN models is developed for supporting large modelling projects and parallel development of independent CPN models. (au) 11 refs.

  6. Modelling the work flow of a nuclear waste management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeyer Mortensen, K.; Pinci, V.

    1997-03-01

    In this paper we describe a modelling project to improve a nuclear waste management program in charge of the creation of a new system for the permanent disposal of nuclear waste. SADT (Structural Analysis and Design Technique) is used in order to provide a work-flow description of the functions to be performed by the waste management program. This description is then translated into a number of Coloured Petri Nets (CPN or CP-nets) corresponding to different program functions where additional behavioural inscriptions provide basis for simulation. Each of these CP-nets is simulated to produce timed event charts that are useful for understanding the behaviour of the program functions under different scenarios. Then all the CPN models are linked together to form a single stand-alone application that is useful for validating the interaction and cooperation between the different program functions. A technique for linking executable CPN models is developed for supporting large modelling projects and parallel development of independent CPN models. (au) 11 refs

  7. Parameter values for the long-term nuclear waste management food chain model LIMCAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1982-09-01

    Eighteen parameters of LIMCAL, a comprehensive food chain model for predicting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents to man due to long-term nuclear waste management are reviewed. The parameters are: soil bulk density, plowlayer depth, soil surface layer depth, resusupension factor, atmospheric dust load, deposition velocity, plant interception fraction, plant environmental half-time, translocation factor, time of above-ground exposure, plant yield, holdup time, animals' feed consumption rate, animals' water consumption rate, man's water consumption rate, food type calorie conversion factors, man's total caloric intake rate and food type calorie fractions. LIMCAL has both traditional and unique parameters. The former occur in most of the currently used assessment models for nuclear installations, whereas the latter do not. For each of the parameters of LIMCAL, a suitable generic value for long-term nuclear waste management was determined. Thus, the general literature and the values currently used or recommended by various agencies were reviewed

  8. Modeling Nitrogen Decrease in Water Lettuce Ponds from Waste Stabilization Ponds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putri, Gitta Agnes; Sunarsih

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents about the dynamic modeling of the Water Lettuce ponds as a form of improvement from the Water Hyacinth ponds. The purpose of this paper is to predict nitrogen decrease and nitrogen transformation in Water Lettuce ponds integrated with Waste Stabilization Ponds. The model consists of 4 mass balances, namely Dissolved Organic Nitrogen (DON), Particulate Organic Nitrogen (PON), ammonium (NH4+), Nitrate and Nitrite (NOx). The process of nitrogen transformation which considered in a Water Lettuce ponds, namely hydrolysis, mineralization, nitrification, denitrification, plant and bacterial uptake processes. Numerical simulations are performed by giving the values of parameters and the initial values of nitrogen compounds based on a review of previous studies. Numerical results show that the rate of change in the concentration of nitrogen compounds in the integration ponds of waste stabilization and water lettuce decreases and reaches stable at different times.

  9. An analytical model for climatic predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1990-12-01

    A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

  10. An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric

    2005-08-01

    As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test.

  11. An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric

    2005-01-01

    As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test

  12. Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeliazkova, Nina

    2012-07-01

    The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.

  13. Dynamic metabolic modeling of heterotrophic and mixotrophic microalgal growth on fermentative wastes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Baroukh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Microalgae are promising microorganisms for the production of numerous molecules of interest, such as pigments, proteins or triglycerides that can be turned into biofuels. Heterotrophic or mixotrophic growth on fermentative wastes represents an interesting approach to achieving higher biomass concentrations, while reducing cost and improving the environmental footprint. Fermentative wastes generally consist of a blend of diverse molecules and it is thus crucial to understand microalgal metabolism in such conditions, where switching between substrates might occur. Metabolic modeling has proven to be an efficient tool for understanding metabolism and guiding the optimization of biomass or target molecule production. Here, we focused on the metabolism of Chlorella sorokiniana growing heterotrophically and mixotrophically on acetate and butyrate. The metabolism was represented by 172 metabolic reactions. The DRUM modeling framework with a mildly relaxed quasi-steady-state assumption was used to account for the switching between substrates and the presence of light. Nine experiments were used to calibrate the model and nine experiments for the validation. The model efficiently predicted the experimental data, including the transient behavior during heterotrophic, autotrophic, mixotrophic and diauxic growth. It shows that an accurate model of metabolism can now be constructed, even in dynamic conditions, with the presence of several carbon substrates. It also opens new perspectives for the heterotrophic and mixotrophic use of microalgae, especially for biofuel production from wastes.

  14. Predicting routes of radioactive wastes moved on the U.S. railroad system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillsman, E.L.; Johnson, P.E.; Peterson, B.E.

    1980-01-01

    Relative to the use of public roads, railroads offer several advantages for the movement of radioactive wastes. These include the ability to accommodate large, heavy containers, the ability to transfer large volumes in a single movement, and the safety of a dedicated, centrally controlled right-of-way. The principal disadvantage of railroads is that the shipper has considerably less freedom to specify the route a shipment will take. The lower density of the railroad network, the need to coordinate waste shipments with other traffic in the system, and the private ownership of the US network all reduce the shippers routing power. Although the shipper can dictate an exact route, this could require the use of a special train at an increased cost. Before considering the general use of special trains to move radioactive wastes, it is first desirable to determine how these materials would move as general rail traffic. This paper describes the development of a system to predict routes of general rail traffic at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  15. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  16. A Predictive Maintenance Model for Railway Tracks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Rui; Wen, Min; Salling, Kim Bang

    2015-01-01

    presents a mathematical model based on Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) which is designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballasted track for the time horizon up to four years. The objective function is setup to minimize the actual costs for the tamping machine (measured by time......). Five technical and economic aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality...

  17. Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

    2007-10-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.

  18. Effective modelling for predictive analytics in data science ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effective modelling for predictive analytics in data science. ... the nearabsence of empirical or factual predictive analytics in the mainstream research going on ... Keywords: Predictive Analytics, Big Data, Business Intelligence, Project Planning.

  19. Waste incineration models for operation optimization. Phase 1: Advanced measurement equipment for improved operation of waste fired plants; Affaldsforbraendingsmodeller til driftsoptimering. Fase 1: Avanceret maeleudstyr til forbedret drift af affaldsfyrede anlaeg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-06-01

    This report describes results from the PSO projects ELTRA-5294 and ELTRA-5348: Waste incineration models for operation optimization. Phase 1, and Advanced measurement equipment for improved operation of waste fired plants. Phase 1. The two projects form the first step in a project course build on a long-term vision of a fully automatic system using a wide range of advanced measurement data, advanced dynamic models for prediction of operation and advanced regulation methods for optimization of the operation of waste incinerator plants. (BA)

  20. A model of pyritic oxidation in waste rock dumps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, G.B.; Ritchie, A.I.M.

    1983-01-01

    The oxidation of pyrite can lead to high acid levels and high concentrations of trace metals in the water that runs off and percolates through pyritic material. This is the situation at the abandoned uranium mine at Rum Jungle in the Northern Territory of Australia, where pyritic oxidation in the waste rock dumps resulting from open cut mining of the uranium orebody has led to pollution of the nearby East Branch of the Finniss River, with trace metals such as copper, manganese and zinc. Mathematical equations are formulated which describe a model of pyritic oxidation within a waste rock dump, where it is assumed that oxygen transport is the rate limiting step in the oxidation process and that oxygen is transported by gaseous diffusion through the pore space of the dump, followed by diffusion into oxidation sites within the particles that comprise the dump. The equations have been solved numerically assuming values for such parameters as porosity, sulphur density and oxygen diffusion coefficients which are applicable to the waste rock dumps at Rum Jungle. An approximate solution to the equations is also presented. Calculations of the heat source distribution and the total SO 4 production rate are presented for both single size particles and for a range of particle sizes in the dump. The usefulness of the approximate solution, and of calculations based on single size particles in the dump in assessing the effectiveness of strategies to reduce pollution from such waste rock dumps are discussed

  1. Tobacco industry responsibility for butts: a Model Tobacco Waste Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Clifton; Novotny, Thomas E; Lee, Kelley; Freiberg, Mike; McLaughlin, Ian

    2017-01-01

    Cigarette butts and other postconsumer products from tobacco use are the most common waste elements picked up worldwide each year during environmental cleanups. Under the environmental principle of Extended Producer Responsibility, tobacco product manufacturers may be held responsible for collection, transport, processing and safe disposal of tobacco product waste (TPW). Legislation has been applied to other toxic and hazardous postconsumer waste products such as paints, pesticide containers and unused pharmaceuticals, to reduce, prevent and mitigate their environmental impacts. Additional product stewardship (PS) requirements may be necessary for other stakeholders and beneficiaries of tobacco product sales and use, especially suppliers, retailers and consumers, in order to ensure effective TPW reduction. This report describes how a Model Tobacco Waste Act may be adopted by national and subnational jurisdictions to address the environmental impacts of TPW. Such a law will also reduce tobacco use and its health consequences by raising attention to the environmental hazards of TPW, increasing the price of tobacco products, and reducing the number of tobacco product retailers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  2. Combining GPS measurements and IRI model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Juan, J.M.; Sanz, J.; Bilitza, D.

    2002-01-01

    The free electrons distributed in the ionosphere (between one hundred and thousands of km in height) produce a frequency-dependent effect on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals: a delay in the pseudo-orange and an advance in the carrier phase. These effects are proportional to the columnar electron density between the satellite and receiver, i.e. the integrated electron density along the ray path. Global ionospheric TEC (total electron content) maps can be obtained with GPS data from a network of ground IGS (international GPS service) reference stations with an accuracy of few TEC units. The comparison with the TOPEX TEC, mainly measured over the oceans far from the IGS stations, shows a mean bias and standard deviation of about 2 and 5 TECUs respectively. The discrepancies between the STEC predictions and the observed values show an RMS typically below 5 TECUs (which also includes the alignment code noise). he existence of a growing database 2-hourly global TEC maps and with resolution of 5x2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude can be used to improve the IRI prediction capability of the TEC. When the IRI predictions and the GPS estimations are compared for a three month period around the Solar Maximum, they are in good agreement for middle latitudes. An over-determination of IRI TEC has been found at the extreme latitudes, the IRI predictions being, typically two times higher than the GPS estimations. Finally, local fits of the IRI model can be done by tuning the SSN from STEC GPS observations

  3. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

  4. Melodie: A global risk assessment model for radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewi, J.; Assouline, M.; Bareau, J.; Raimbault, P.

    1987-03-01

    The Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (IPSN), which is part of the French Atomic Energy Commission (C.E.A.) develops since 1984 in collaboration with different groups inside and outside the C.E.A. a computer model for risk assessment of nuclear waste repositories in deep geological formations. The main characteristics of the submodels, the data processing structure and some examples of applications are presented

  5. Modeling a novel glass immobilization waste treatment process using flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrada, J.J.; Nehls, J.W. Jr.; Welch, T.D.; Giardina, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    One option for control and disposal of surplus fissile materials is the Glass Material Oxidation and Dissolution System (GMODS), a process developed at ORNL for directly converting Pu-bearing material into a durable high-quality glass waste form. This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the GMODS process flowsheet using FLOW, a chemical process simulator. The simulation showed that the glass chemistry postulated ion the models has acceptable levels of risks

  6. Mathematical models for indoor radon prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malanca, A.; Pessina, V.; Dallara, G.

    1995-01-01

    It is known that the indoor radon (Rn) concentration can be predicted by means of mathematical models. The simplest model relies on two variables only: the Rn source strength and the air exchange rate. In the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) model several environmental parameters are combined into a complex equation; besides, a correlation between the ventilation rate and the Rn entry rate from the soil is admitted. The measurements were carried out using activated carbon canisters. Seventy-five measurements of Rn concentrations were made inside two rooms placed on the second floor of a building block. One of the rooms had a single-glazed window whereas the other room had a double pane window. During three different experimental protocols, the mean Rn concentration was always higher into the room with a double-glazed window. That behavior can be accounted for by the simplest model. A further set of 450 Rn measurements was collected inside a ground-floor room with a grounding well in it. This trend maybe accounted for by the LBL model

  7. Hydrology model evaluation at the Hanford Nuclear Waste Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-04-01

    One and two-dimensional flow and contaminant transport computer models have been developed at Hanford to assess the rate and direction of contaminant movement from waste disposal sites. The primary objective of this work was to evaluate the potential improvement in accuracy that a three-dimensional model might offer over the simpler one and two-dimensional models. INTERA's hydrology contaminant transport model was used for this evaluation. Although this study was conceptual in nature, an attempt was made to relate it as closely as possible to Hanford conditions. Two-dimensional model runs were performed over the period of 1968 to 1973 using estimates of waste discharge flows, tritium concentrations, vertically averaged values of aquifer properties and boundary conditions. The well test interpretation runs confirmed the applicability of the areal hydraulic conductivity distribution. Velocity fields calculated by the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models and surface concentration profiles calculated by the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models show significant differences. Vertical concentration profiles calculated by a three-dimensional model show better qualitative agreement with the limited observed concentration profile data supplied by ARHCO

  8. Towards predictive models for transitionally rough surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abderrahaman-Elena, Nabil; Garcia-Mayoral, Ricardo

    2017-11-01

    We analyze and model the previously presented decomposition for flow variables in DNS of turbulence over transitionally rough surfaces. The flow is decomposed into two contributions: one produced by the overlying turbulence, which has no footprint of the surface texture, and one induced by the roughness, which is essentially the time-averaged flow around the surface obstacles, but modulated in amplitude by the first component. The roughness-induced component closely resembles the laminar steady flow around the roughness elements at the same non-dimensional roughness size. For small - yet transitionally rough - textures, the roughness-free component is essentially the same as over a smooth wall. Based on these findings, we propose predictive models for the onset of the transitionally rough regime. Project supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).

  9. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period

  10. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana, E-mail: rotchana.in@gmail.com [Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Abdul Salam, P., E-mail: salam@ait.ac.th [Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Kumar, S., E-mail: kumar@ait.ac.th [Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Untong, Akarapong, E-mail: akarapong_un@hotmail.com [School of Tourism Development, Maejo University, Chiangmai (Thailand)

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  11. Integrated economic model of waste management: Case study for South Moravia region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Hřebíček

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces and discusses the developed integrated economic model of municipal waste management of the Czech Republic, which was developed by authors as a balanced network model for a set of sources (mostly municipalities of municipal solid waste connected with a set of chosen waste treatment facilities processing their waste. Model is implemented as a combination of several economic submodels including environmental and economic point of view. It enables to formulate the optimisation problem in a concise way and the resulting model is easily scalable. Model involves submodels of waste prevention, collection and transport optimization, submodels of waste energy utilization (incineration and biogas plants and material recycling (composting and submodel of landfilling. Its size (number of sources and facilities depends only upon available data. Its application is used in the case study of the South Moravia region with verification of using time series waste data. The results enable to improve decision making in waste management sector.

  12. Resource-estimation models and predicted discovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, G.W.

    1982-01-01

    Resources have been estimated by predictive extrapolation from past discovery experience, by analogy with better explored regions, or by inference from evidence of depletion of targets for exploration. Changes in technology and new insights into geological mechanisms have occurred sufficiently often in the long run to form part of the pattern of mature discovery experience. The criterion, that a meaningful resource estimate needs an objective measure of its precision or degree of uncertainty, excludes 'estimates' based solely on expert opinion. This is illustrated by development of error measures for several persuasive models of discovery and production of oil and gas in USA, both annually and in terms of increasing exploration effort. Appropriate generalizations of the models resolve many points of controversy. This is illustrated using two USA data sets describing discovery of oil and of U 3 O 8 ; the latter set highlights an inadequacy of available official data. Review of the oil-discovery data set provides a warrant for adjusting the time-series prediction to a higher resource figure for USA petroleum. (author)

  13. Numerical Modeling of Fin and Tube Heat Exchanger for Waste Heat Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Shobhana; Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph

    In the present work, multiphysics numerical modeling is carried out to predict the performance of a liquid-gas fin and tube heat exchanger design. Three-dimensional (3D) steady-state numerical model using commercial software COMSOL based on finite element method (FEM) is developed. The study...... associates conjugate heat transfer phenomenon with the turbulent flow to describe the variable temperature and velocity profile. The performance of heat exchanger design is investigated in terms of overall heat transfer coefficient, Nusselt number, Colburn j-factor, flow resistance factor, and efficiency...... between fin and tube. The present numerical model predicts the performance of the heat exchanger design, therefore, can be applied to existing waste heat recovery systems to improve the overall performance with optimized design and process-dependent parameters....

  14. Comparing urban solid waste recycling from the viewpoint of urban metabolism based on physical input–output model: A case of Suzhou in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Sai; Zhang Tianzhu

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Impacts of solid waste recycling on Suzhou’s urban metabolism in 2015 are analyzed. ► Sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. ► Technical levels of reusing scrap tires and food wastes should be improved. ► Other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. ► Secondary wastes from reusing food wastes and sludge should be concerned. - Abstract: Investigating impacts of urban solid waste recycling on urban metabolism contributes to sustainable urban solid waste management and urban sustainability. Using a physical input–output model and scenario analysis, urban metabolism of Suzhou in 2015 is predicted and impacts of four categories of solid waste recycling on urban metabolism are illustrated: scrap tire recycling, food waste recycling, fly ash recycling and sludge recycling. Sludge recycling has positive effects on reducing all material flows. Thus, sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. Moreover, technical levels of scrap tire recycling and food waste recycling should be improved to produce positive effects on reducing more material flows. Fly ash recycling for cement production has negative effects on reducing all material flows except solid wastes. Thus, other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. In addition, the utilization and treatment of secondary wastes from food waste recycling and sludge recycling should be concerned.

  15. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  16. Evaluating and controlling the characteristics of the nuclear waste in the FWMS using waste stream analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andress, D.; McLeod, N.B.; Joy, D.S.

    1990-01-01

    The Waste Stream Analysis (WSA) Model is used by the Department of Energy to model the item and location dependent properties of the nuclear waste stream in the Federal Waste Managements System and at utility spent fuel storage facilities. WSA can simulate a wide variety of FWMS configurations and operating strategies and can select and sequence spent fuel for optimal efficiency in the FWMS while minimizing adverse impact on the utility sector. WSA tracks each assembly from the time of discharge to ultimate geologic disposal including all shipping cask and waste package loadings and both at-reactor and FWMS consolidation. WSA selects the highest capacity shipping cask or waste package that does not violate external dose rate or heat limitations for a group of spent fuel assemblies to be containerized. This paper presents an overview of the Waste Stream Analysis Model and a number of key results from a set of coordinated SIMS runs, which illustrates both the impact of waste characteristics on system performance and the ability to control waste characteristics by use of selection and sequencing strategies. 7 refs., 6 figs

  17. An Operational Model for the Prediction of Jet Blast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-09

    This paper presents an operational model for the prediction of jet blast. The model was : developed based upon three modules including a jet exhaust model, jet centerline decay : model and aircraft motion model. The final analysis was compared with d...

  18. Neural and hybrid modeling: an alternative route to efficiently predict the behavior of biotechnological processes aimed at biofuels obtainment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curcio, Stefano; Saraceno, Alessandra; Calabrò, Vincenza; Iorio, Gabriele

    2014-01-01

    The present paper was aimed at showing that advanced modeling techniques, based either on artificial neural networks or on hybrid systems, might efficiently predict the behavior of two biotechnological processes designed for the obtainment of second-generation biofuels from waste biomasses. In particular, the enzymatic transesterification of waste-oil glycerides, the key step for the obtainment of biodiesel, and the anaerobic digestion of agroindustry wastes to produce biogas were modeled. It was proved that the proposed modeling approaches provided very accurate predictions of systems behavior. Both neural network and hybrid modeling definitely represented a valid alternative to traditional theoretical models, especially when comprehensive knowledge of the metabolic pathways, of the true kinetic mechanisms, and of the transport phenomena involved in biotechnological processes was difficult to be achieved.

  19. Neural and Hybrid Modeling: An Alternative Route to Efficiently Predict the Behavior of Biotechnological Processes Aimed at Biofuels Obtainment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Curcio

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper was aimed at showing that advanced modeling techniques, based either on artificial neural networks or on hybrid systems, might efficiently predict the behavior of two biotechnological processes designed for the obtainment of second-generation biofuels from waste biomasses. In particular, the enzymatic transesterification of waste-oil glycerides, the key step for the obtainment of biodiesel, and the anaerobic digestion of agroindustry wastes to produce biogas were modeled. It was proved that the proposed modeling approaches provided very accurate predictions of systems behavior. Both neural network and hybrid modeling definitely represented a valid alternative to traditional theoretical models, especially when comprehensive knowledge of the metabolic pathways, of the true kinetic mechanisms, and of the transport phenomena involved in biotechnological processes was difficult to be achieved.

  20. Data driven propulsion system weight prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerth, Richard J.

    1994-10-01

    The objective of the research was to develop a method to predict the weight of paper engines, i.e., engines that are in the early stages of development. The impetus for the project was the Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) project, where engineers need to evaluate alternative engine designs. Since the SSTO is a performance driven project the performance models for alternative designs were well understood. The next tradeoff is weight. Since it is known that engine weight varies with thrust levels, a model is required that would allow discrimination between engines that produce the same thrust. Above all, the model had to be rooted in data with assumptions that could be justified based on the data. The general approach was to collect data on as many existing engines as possible and build a statistical model of the engines weight as a function of various component performance parameters. This was considered a reasonable level to begin the project because the data would be readily available, and it would be at the level of most paper engines, prior to detailed component design.

  1. Predictive modeling of emergency cesarean delivery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Campillo-Artero

    Full Text Available To increase discriminatory accuracy (DA for emergency cesarean sections (ECSs.We prospectively collected data on and studied all 6,157 births occurring in 2014 at four public hospitals located in three different autonomous communities of Spain. To identify risk factors (RFs for ECS, we used likelihood ratios and logistic regression, fitted a classification tree (CTREE, and analyzed a random forest model (RFM. We used the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC curves (AUCs to assess their DA.The magnitude of the LR+ for all putative individual RFs and ORs in the logistic regression models was low to moderate. Except for parity, all putative RFs were positively associated with ECS, including hospital fixed-effects and night-shift delivery. The DA of all logistic models ranged from 0.74 to 0.81. The most relevant RFs (pH, induction, and previous C-section in the CTREEs showed the highest ORs in the logistic models. The DA of the RFM and its most relevant interaction terms was even higher (AUC = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93-0.95.Putative fetal, maternal, and contextual RFs alone fail to achieve reasonable DA for ECS. It is the combination of these RFs and the interactions between them at each hospital that make it possible to improve the DA for the type of delivery and tailor interventions through prediction to improve the appropriateness of ECS indications.

  2. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...... and related to the uncertainty of the impulse response coefficients. The simulations can be used to benchmark l2 MPC against FIR based robust MPC as well as to estimate the maximum performance improvements by robust MPC....

  3. State-of-the-Art Solid Waste Management Life-Cycle Modeling Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Levis, James W.

    There are many alternatives for the management of solid waste including recycling, biological treatment, thermal treatment and landfill disposal. In many cases, solid waste management systems include the use of several of these processes. Solid waste life-cycle assessment models are often used...... to evaluate the environmental consequences of various waste management strategies. The foundation of every life-cycle model is the development and use of process models to estimate the emissions from solid waste unit processes. The objective of this workshop is to describe life-cycle modeling of the solid...... waste processes and systems. The workshop will begin with an introduction to solid waste life-cycle modeling and available models, which will be followed by sessions on life-cycle process modeling for individual processes (e.g., landfills, biological treatment, and thermal treatment). The first part...

  4. Computational modelling of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC waste heat recovery system for an aircraft engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saadon S.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Escalating fuel prices and carbon dioxide emission are causing new interest in methods to increase the thrust force of an aircraft engine with limitation of fuel consumption. One viable means is the conversion of exhaust engine waste heat to a more useful form of energy or to be used in the aircraft environmental system. A one-dimensional analysis method has been proposed for the organic Rankine cycle (ORC waste heat recovery system for turbofan engine in this paper. The paper contains two main parts: validation of the numerical model and a performance prediction of turbofan engine integrated to an ORC system. The cycle is compared with industrial waste heat recovery system from Hangzhou Chinen Steam Turbine Power CO., Ltd. The results show that thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC of the turbofan engine reach lowest value at 0.91 lbm/lbf.h for 7000 lbf of thrust force. When the system installation weight is applied, the system results in a 2.0% reduction in fuel burn. Hence implementation of ORC system for waste heat recovery to an aircraft engine can bring a great potential to the aviation industry.

  5. Geologic modeling in risk assessment methodology for radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, S.E.; Berbano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    Under contract to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the University of New Mexico is developing a computer based assessment methodology for evaluating public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of radioactive waste in geologic formations. Methodology incorporates a release or fault tree model, an environmental model, and an economic model. The release model and its application to a model repository in bedded salt is described. Fault trees are constructed to provide the relationships between various geologic and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material beyond the immediate environs of the repository. The environmental model includes: 1) the transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, 2) pathways from these environmental concentrations, and 3) radiation dose to man. Finally, economic results are used to compare and assess various disposal configurations as a basis for formulatin

  6. Research requirements for a unified approach to modelling chemical effects associated with radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krol, A.A.; Read, D.

    1986-09-01

    This report contains the results of a review of the current modelling, laboratory experiments and field experiments being conducted in the United Kingdom to aid understanding and improve prediction of the effects of chemistry on the disposal of radioactive wastes. The aim has been to summarise present work and derive a structure for future research effort that would support the use of probabilistic risk assessment (pra) methods for the disposal of radioactive wastes. The review was conducted by a combination of letter and personal visits, and preliminary results were reported to a plenary meeting of participants held in April, 1986. Following this meeting, copies of the report were circulated to participants at draft stage, so that the finalised report should be taken to provide as far as possible a consensus of opinion of research requirements. (author)

  7. Methodology for Designing Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Zarinara; Mohammad Mahdi Akhondi; Hojjat Zeraati; Koorsh Kamali; Kazem Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: The prediction models for infertility treatment success have presented since 25 years ago. There are scientific principles for designing and applying the prediction models that is also used to predict the success rate of infertility treatment. The purpose of this study is to provide basic principles for designing the model to predic infertility treatment success. Materials and Methods: In this paper, the principles for developing predictive models are explained and...

  8. Development of a computer code to predict a ventilation requirement for an underground radioactive waste storage tank

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Y.J.; Dalpiaz, E.L. [ICF Kaiser Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Computer code, WTVFE (Waste Tank Ventilation Flow Evaluation), has been developed to evaluate the ventilation requirement for an underground storage tank for radioactive waste. Heat generated by the radioactive waste and mixing pumps in the tank is removed mainly through the ventilation system. The heat removal process by the ventilation system includes the evaporation of water from the waste and the heat transfer by natural convection from the waste surface. Also, a portion of the heat will be removed through the soil and the air circulating through the gap between the primary and secondary tanks. The heat loss caused by evaporation is modeled based on recent evaporation test results by the Westinghouse Hanford Company using a simulated small scale waste tank. Other heat transfer phenomena are evaluated based on well established conduction and convection heat transfer relationships. 10 refs., 3 tabs.

  9. THE HANFORD WASTE FEED DELIVERY OPERATIONS RESEARCH MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, J.; Gallaher, B.N.

    2011-01-01

    Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), the Hanford tank farm contractor, is tasked with the long term planning of the cleanup mission. Cleanup plans do not explicitly reflect the mission effects associated with tank farm operating equipment failures. EnergySolutions, a subcontractor to WRPS has developed, in conjunction with WRPS tank farms staff, an Operations Research (OR) model to assess and identify areas to improve the performance of the Waste Feed Delivery Systems. This paper provides an example of how OR modeling can be used to help identify and mitigate operational risks at the Hanford tank farms.

  10. Mathematical modeling in low-level radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D.S.; Yeh, G.T.

    1978-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of moisture transport through near-surface infiltration reduction seals above low-level waste trenches may be used to aid in the evaluation of engineering design alternatives. The infiltration of rainwater must be reduced for successful radionuclide containment within a typical shallow trench. Clay admixtures offer not only long-term integrity, but the necessary durability. The use of models is exemplified in the calculation of spatial moisture content and velocity distributions in the vicinity of a near-surface seal

  11. Business model and problem about the radioactive wastes management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Norimasa; Torii, Hiroyuki

    2007-01-01

    The PFI (Private Finance Initiative) is a new method to construct, maintain and manage public facilities by using private capital, management skills, and technical abilities. This article described business model and related problem for making use of PFI for the management of low-level radioactive wastes produced at reactors and nuclear fuel facilities of research institutes, universities and others. This service projects could provide public services with higher quality while reducing the business costs to the country and the local authority. Social impacts, business models and risks of the projects had been assessed. (T. Tanaka)

  12. Development of a low-level radioactive waste shipper model. National Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-03-01

    During 1982, Inter/Face Associates, Inc., conducted a low-level radioactive waste management survey of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensees in Massachusetts for the US Department of Energy's National Low-Level Waste Management Program. In the process of conducting the survey, a model was developed, based on existing NRC license classification systems, that would identify licensees who ship low-level waste for disposal. This report presents the model and documents the procedures used in developing and testing it. After the model was tested, several modifications were developed with the goal of determining the model's ability to identify waste shippers under different parameters. The report includes a discussion of the modifications

  13. Finite Unification: Theory, Models and Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Heinemeyer, S; Zoupanos, G

    2011-01-01

    All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs) are very interesting N=1 supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories (GUTs) realising an old field theory dream, and moreover have a remarkable predictive power due to the required reduction of couplings. The reduction of the dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI) relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exist RGI relations among dimensional couplings that guarantee the vanishing of all beta-functions in certain N=1 GUTs even to all orders. Furthermore developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations, i.e. reduction of couplings, in this dimensionful sector of the theory, too. Based on the above theoretical framework phenomenologically consistent FUTs have been constructed. Here we review FUT models based on the SU(5) and SU(3)^3 gauge groups and their predictions. Of particular interest is the Hig...

  14. Thermal response modeling of a contact-handled transuranic waste shipping container system to a fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suchsland, K.E.; Kwong, K.C.; Fretter, E.F.; Boyd, R.D.; Auerbach, I.; Yoshimura, H.R.

    1980-01-01

    A one-dimensional thermal model has been developed to predict the response of a transuranic (TRU) waste shipping container accidentally exposed to a fire environment. The basic wall structure of the container consists of polyurethane foam (64 kg/m 3 ) sandwiched between two steel plates. The foam thermal model, based on high temperature experimental data, is developed for the case in which the virgin foam is in a nonoxidizing environment. The experimental results indicate that foam decomposition is highly heat rate dependent. At low quasi-steady heating rates, the foam changes to a bubbling black viscous liquid. At very high heating rates, pyrolysis gases are formed as the foam decomposes and a 20% (by weight) residual char remains. This porous char acts as a radiation shield which can significantly reduce thermal transport. In the case of a TRU shipping container wall, this char will slow the thermal penetration rate and drastically reduce the heat load to the container contents. When the front surface of the wall was subjected to 1333 0 K, numerical computations predict that after approximately 1800 s the foam temperature rise at a depth of 10.2 cm was less than 200 K (uncharred). After approximately 3600 s the foam temperature rise at a depth of 20.4 cm was 23 0 K. Typical waste contents temperature rise was predicted to be less than 56 0 K after 3600 s of heating

  15. Nuclide separation modeling through reverse osmosis membranes in radioactive liquid waste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung-Sik Lee

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to investigate the transport mechanism of radioactive nuclides through the reverse osmosis (RO membrane and to estimate its effectiveness for nuclide separation from radioactive liquid waste. An analytical model is developed to simulate the RO separation, and a series of experiments are set up to confirm its estimated separation behavior. The model is based on the extended Nernst–Plank equation, which handles the convective flux, diffusive flux, and electromigration flux under electroneutrality and zero electric current conditions. The distribution coefficient which arises due to ion interactions with the membrane material and the electric potential jump at the membrane interface are included as boundary conditions in solving the equation. A high Peclet approximation is adopted to simplify the calculation, but the effect of concentration polarization is included for a more accurate prediction of separation. Cobalt and cesium are specifically selected for the experiments in order to check the separation mechanism from liquid waste composed of various radioactive nuclides and nonradioactive substances, and the results are compared with the estimated cobalt and cesium rejections of the RO membrane using the model. Experimental and calculated results are shown to be in excellent agreement. The proposed model will be very useful for the prediction of separation behavior of various radioactive nuclides by the RO membrane.

  16. Nuclide separation modeling through reverse osmosis membranes in radioactive liquid waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Byung Sik [KEPCO Engineering and Construction, Gimcheon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    The aim of this work is to investigate the transport mechanism of radioactive nuclides through the reverse osmosis (RO) membrane and to estimate its effectiveness for nuclide separation from radioactive liquid waste. An analytical model is developed to simulate the RO separation, and a series of experiments are set up to confirm its estimated separation behavior. The model is based on the extended Nernst-Plank equation, which handles the convective flux, diffusive flux, and electromigration flux under electroneutrality and zero electric current conditions. The distribution coefficient which arises due to ion interactions with the membrane material and the electric potential jump at the membrane interface are included as boundary conditions in solving the equation. A high Peclet approximation is adopted to simplify the calculation, but the effect of concentration polarization is included for a more accurate prediction of separation. Cobalt and cesium are specifically selected for the experiments in order to check the separation mechanism from liquid waste composed of various radioactive nuclides and nonradioactive substances, and the results are compared with the estimated cobalt and cesium rejections of the RO membrane using the model. Experimental and calculated results are shown to be in excellent agreement. The proposed model will be very useful for the prediction of separation behavior of various radioactive nuclides by the RO membrane.

  17. Revised predictive equations for salt intrusion modelling in estuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gisen, J.I.A.; Savenije, H.H.G.; Nijzink, R.C.

    2015-01-01

    For one-dimensional salt intrusion models to be predictive, we need predictive equations to link model parameters to observable hydraulic and geometric variables. The one-dimensional model of Savenije (1993b) made use of predictive equations for the Van der Burgh coefficient $K$ and the dispersion

  18. Neutrino nucleosynthesis in supernovae: Shell model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haxton, W.C.

    1989-01-01

    Almost all of the 3 · 10 53 ergs liberated in a core collapse supernova is radiated as neutrinos by the cooling neutron star. I will argue that these neutrinos interact with nuclei in the ejected shells of the supernovae to produce new elements. It appears that this nucleosynthesis mechanism is responsible for the galactic abundances of 7 Li, 11 B, 19 F, 138 La, and 180 Ta, and contributes significantly to the abundances of about 15 other light nuclei. I discuss shell model predictions for the charged and neutral current allowed and first-forbidden responses of the parent nuclei, as well as the spallation processes that produce the new elements. 18 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  19. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    units. The approach is inspired by smart-grid electric power production and consumption systems, where the flexibility of a large number of power producing and/or power consuming units can be exploited in a smart-grid solution. The objective is to accommodate the load variation on the grid, arising......This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...... on one hand from varying consumption, on the other hand by natural variations in power production e.g. from wind turbines. The approach presented is based on quadratic optimization and possess the properties of low algorithmic complexity and of scalability. In particular, the proposed design methodology...

  20. Distributed model predictive control made easy

    CERN Document Server

    Negenborn, Rudy

    2014-01-01

    The rapid evolution of computer science, communication, and information technology has enabled the application of control techniques to systems beyond the possibilities of control theory just a decade ago. Critical infrastructures such as electricity, water, traffic and intermodal transport networks are now in the scope of control engineers. The sheer size of such large-scale systems requires the adoption of advanced distributed control approaches. Distributed model predictive control (MPC) is one of the promising control methodologies for control of such systems.   This book provides a state-of-the-art overview of distributed MPC approaches, while at the same time making clear directions of research that deserve more attention. The core and rationale of 35 approaches are carefully explained. Moreover, detailed step-by-step algorithmic descriptions of each approach are provided. These features make the book a comprehensive guide both for those seeking an introduction to distributed MPC as well as for those ...