Roger S. Pulwarty
Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.
Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi
Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.
Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford
The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas IntegratedÂ Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Â funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to developÂ and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projectsÂ focus on...
Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.
Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early
Oh, J.; KIM, D.; Kang, M.; Woo, C.; Kim, D.; Seo, J.; Lee, C.; Yoon, H.; Heon, S.
Forest disasters, such as landslides and wildfires, cause huge economic losses and casualties, and the cost of recovery is increasing every year. While forest disaster mitigation technologies have been focused on the development of prevention and response technologies, they are now required to evolve into evacuation and border evacuation, and to develop technologies fused with ICT. In this study, we analyze the SNS (Social Network Service) stream and implement a system to detect the message that the forest disaster occurred or the forest disaster, and search the keyword related to the forest disaster in advance in real time. It is possible to detect more accurate forest disaster messages by repeatedly learning the retrieved results using machine learning techniques. To do this, we designed and implemented a system based on Hadoop and Spark, a distributed parallel processing platform, to handle Twitter stream messages that open SNS. In order to develop the technology to notify the information of forest disaster risk, a linkage of technology such as CBS (Cell Broadcasting System) based on mobile communication, internet-based civil defense siren, SNS and the legal and institutional issues for applying these technologies are examined. And the protocol of the forest disaster warning information service system that can deliver the SNS analysis result was developed. As a result, it was possible to grasp real-time forest disaster situation by real-time big data analysis of SNS that occurred during forest disasters. In addition, we confirmed that it is possible to rapidly propagate alarm or warning according to the disaster situation by using the function of the forest disaster warning information notification service. However, the limitation of system application due to the restriction of opening and sharing of SNS data currently in service and the disclosure of personal information remains a problem to be solved in the future. Keyword : SNS stream, Big data, Machine
Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng
Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.
Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.
Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.
Full Text Available Monitoring and warning of geological disasters accurately and in a timely fashion would dramatically mitigate casualties and economic losses. This paper takes Lanzhou city as an example and designs a Web-based system, namely the information system for geological disaster monitoring and warning (ISGDMW. Presented are its framework, key developing technologies, database, and working flow. The information system adopts a Browser/Server (B/S structure and has three-tier architecture, combining in-situ monitoring instruments, the wireless sensor network, WebGIS techniques and the grey system theory. The framework of the ISGDMW can be divided into three categories: (1 in-situ monitoring system, it aims to monitor geological disaster sites and get state information of geological disaster sites; (2 database, manage in-situ monitoring data, antecedent field investigating data and basic data; (3 analyzing and warning system, analyze in-situ monitoring data, understand the deformation trend of the potential geological disaster, and release disaster warning information to the public. The ISGDMW allow the processes of geological disaster monitoring, in-situ monitoring data analysis, geological disaster warning to be implemented in an efficient and quick way, and can provide scientific suggestions to commanders for quick response to the possibility of geological disaster.
Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.
The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process
...) Integrated Tactical Warning and Attack Assessment (ITW/AA) system. These subsystems provide critical strategic surveillance and attack warning and assessment information to United States and Canadian leaders...
Zhao, Xuyang; Ye, Wenwu
With the development of science and technology, transportation network has grown faster. But at the same time, the quantity of traffic accidents due to fatigue driving grows faster as well. In the meantime, fatigue driving has been one of the main causes of traffic accidents. Therefore, it is indispensable for us to study the detection of fatigue driving to help to driving safety. There are numerous approaches in discrimination method. Each type of method has its reasonable theoretical basis, but the disadvantages of traditional fatigue driving detection methods have been more and more obvious since we study the traditional physiology and psychological features of fatigue drivers. So we set up a new system based on multi-information fusion and pattern recognition theory. In the paper, the fatigue driving pre-warning system discriminates fatigue by analyzing the characteristic parameters, the parameters derived from the steering wheel angle, the driver's power of gripping and the heart rate. And the data analysis system is established based on fuzzy C-means clustering theory. Finally, KNN classifier is used to establish the relation between feature indexes and fatigue degree. It is verified that the system has the better accuracy, agility and robustness according to our confirmatory experiment.
Schmitzer, C.; Kloesch, W.; Stadtmann, H.
A prototype station for a Radiation Early Warning Network has been designed and set up at the Austrian Research Centre Seibersdorf. This unit was developed to measure all relevant parameters necessary to detect and track radioactive contamination at an early stage. The station consists of the following components: Radiation measuring channel for ambient gamma dose rate. Meteorological measurement channels for air temperature and humidity, wind direction and wind speed, and precipitation. Data processing and storage unit. The system is capable of unattended operation and data acquisition even under adverse environmental conditions. Connection to a central processing platform may be achieved via leased line, dial up over public switched telephone network (PSTN), or radio-frequency transmission. The remote station will continue acquiring and storing data for at least a month, even if the communications link is broken. Multiple stations can be combined to form a network, providing detailed information about radiological and meteorological data at each site. Thus increased ambient radiation levels may be discovered, tracked, and forecasted based on calculations using current and local weather data
Full Text Available Due to the particular geographical location and geological condition, Taiwan is constantly attacked by typhoons, flood, landslides, debris flows, and earthquakes. Those natural hazards had caused huge loss of lives and properties. To reduce the damages and losses caused by the natural hazards, an integrated and complete decision support system for decision makers is necessary. In this study, Safe Taiwan information system (SATIS, which includes two subsystems, response operation subsystem for staff members and decision support subsystem for commanders, is developed for preparedness and response of typhoon hazards. It is based on the Web- GIS framework that the disaster information can be distributed via internet technology. When typhoon is approaching, response operation subsystem is used by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR staffs to integrate real-time monitoring information, hazard models and graphical user interfaces to analyze and manage the disaster information such as the current position and possible path of typhoon, the spatial distribution of rainfalls, and potential areas of flooding, landslides and debris flows. The input data of this subsystem includes the basic maps, the real-time information of typhoon and rainfall issued by the Central Weather Bureau, the real-time water information from the Water Resources Agency, and the hazard maps indicating areas of potential landslide, debris flow and flooding made by NCDR herself to estimate endangered areas under the current typhoon. There are four main modules integrated into the subsystem including the rainfall monitoring and forecasting, the estimation of potential inundation areas, the estimation of potential landslide and debris flows, and the management of disaster information. The results of hazard risk analysis which include potential rainfall distribution, inundation and landslide risk areas, early warning messages, and total suggestion over the
Mileti, D. S.
Major advances have occurred over the last 20 years about how to effectively communicate risk information and warnings to the public. These lessons have been hard won. Knowledge has mounted on the finding from social scientific studies of risk communication failures, successes and those which fell somewhere in between. Moreover, the last 2 decades have borne witness to the brith, cultivation, and blossoming of information sharing between those physical scientists who discover new information about risk and those communcation scientists who trace its diffusion and then measure pbulic reaction.
Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...
Bukley, Angelia P.; Mulqueen, John A.
Based on an extensive characterization of natural hazards, and an evaluation of their impacts on humanity, a set of functional technical requirements for a global warning and relief system was developed. Since no technological breakthroughs are required to implement a global system capable of performing the functions required to provide sufficient information for prevention, preparedness, warning, and relief from natural disaster effects, a system is proposed which would combine the elements of remote sensing, data processing, information distribution, and communications support on a global scale for disaster mitigation.
Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily
Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.
Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily
Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620
A.L.P. Nuijten (Arno)
textabstractEscalation of commitment to a chosen course of action is a phenomenon that shows for example when failing strategic Information Systems (IS) projects are continued for much too long. With this study we contribute to the explanation of why managers (Project Owners) respond with the Deaf
Full Text Available Every year, traffic accidents due to human errors cause increasing amounts of deaths and injuries globally. To help reduce the amount of fatalities, in the paper presented here, a new module for Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS which deals with automatic driver drowsiness detection based on visual information and Artificial Intelligence is presented. The aim of this system is to locate, track, and analyze both the drivers face and eyes to compute a drowsiness index, where this real-time system works under varying light conditions (diurnal and nocturnal driving. Examples of different images of drivers taken in a real vehicle are shown to validate the algorithms used.
Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter
Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to
Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.
The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the
Basnayake, S. B.; Jayasinghe, S.; Meechaiya, C.; Markert, K. N.; Lee, H.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.; Okeowo, M. A.
Asia is the most vulnerable region in the world to hydro-meteorological extreme events, exacerbated by climate variability and change. Impacts of floods have been on the rapid increase in the recent decades. Myanmar is one of the most vulnerable countries in the lower Mekong region due to its socioeconomic situation (eg; Nargis in 2008, monsoon floods in 2015, etc). Early warning is an effective way to prepare for hydro-meteorological hazards, to minimize disaster risks; however, early warning systems in Myanmar are seriously hampered by limited observation networks. The Virtual Rain and Stream Gauge Information Service (VRSGIS) has been developed by SERVIR-Mekong program of Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) to address these gaps and to provide dense, satellite-based rainfall and water level data, which are calibrated and validated with available in-situ observations. This service would enhance decision making in lower Mekong countries, including Myanmar, to minimize impacts of impending disasters. This service contains rainfall data from GPM IMERG and GSMap, CMORPH, TRMM, and CHIRPS, and water levels for 15 locations using Jason-2/3 altimetry. The virtual daily rainfall data sets are being calibrated with Gamma distribution method and are made publicly accessible through a user-friendly web interface.This paper presents a case study of satellite-derived rainfall data accessed from VRSGIS for hydrological modeling in Myanmar, to estimate inundation areas in Kalay township area of Chindwin River basin during the country's worst flood in 2015. Twelve out of fourteen States of Myanmar were severely affected, 103 people were killed, and one million were displaced due to heavy rains associated with Komen cyclone. The aforementioned rainfall data products are used as inputs for HEC-HMS hydrological runoff model to calculate river flows along Chindwin River, and HEC-RAS hydraulic model is used to estimate inundation areas in downstream including Kalay township
Darby, L. S.; Mcnutt, C. A.; Ingram, K.; Knox, P.; Martinez, C. J.; Zierden, D.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Verdin, J. P.
From fall 2009 to fall 2010 the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Program Office coordinated several stakeholder meetings in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin, which extends from Georgia into Alabama and Florida. The purpose of the meetings was to ascertain which products and services are needed by basin stakeholders for drought early warning. Drought vulnerabilities across the basin are quite diverse - from changes in salinity that harm oyster bed productivity in Apalachicola Bay, to the health of crops in the agricultural fields of the Flint River basin, to municipal water supply issues for the city of Atlanta and smaller communities along the tributaries. These, and many other vulnerabilities, exist against a backdrop of decades-long water allocation litigation among the three states. The benefits of these stakeholder meetings went beyond information gathering by serving as opportunities for communication across state lines among people with differing needs and perspectives regarding water management decisions in the basin. The meetings also provided a good opportunity for stakeholders from all three states to share lessons learned from various management perspectives during the drought that affected the basin from 2006 to 2009. Common issues and needs identified from all regions of the basin include: (1) Education and Communication - People across the basin agree that education and communication regarding drought needs improvement (e.g., definition of drought, sector-specific impacts); (2) Improved interactions with the US Army Corps of Engineers (e.g., increased data sharing and opportunities for communication between the Corps and other stakeholders); (3) Data - easier access to real-time calibrated and quality-controlled data; (4) ACF Basin-wide webinars and climate outlooks; (5) Drought Index - Can a basin-wide drought index be established?; (6) Resolve perceived discrepancies regarding groundwater (How much
Prasetyo, S. Y. J.; Agus, Y. H.; Dewi, C.; Simanjuntak, B. H.; Hartomo, K. D.
The Government of Indonesia is currently faced with the problems of food, especially rice. It needs in large numbers that have to import from neighboring countries. Actually, the Indonesian government has the ability to produce rice to meet national needs but is still faced with the problem of pest attack rice annually increasing extent. One of the factors is that geographically Indonesia located on the migration path of world rice insect pests (called BPH or Brown Planthoppers) (Nilaparvata lugens Stal.) It leads endemic status annually. One proposed strategy to be applied is to use an early warning system based on a specific region of the main pest population. The proposed information system called GEODATA. GEODATA is Geospatial Outbreak of Disease Tracking and Analysis. The system works using a library ESSA (Exponential Smoothing - Spatial Autocorrelation) developed in previous studies in Satya Wacana Christian University. GEODATA built to meet the qualifications required surveillance device by BMKG (Indonesian Agency of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics’ Central Java Provinces), BPTPH (Indonesian Agency of Plant Protection and Horticulture) Central Java Provinces, BKP-KP District Boyolali, Central Java, (Indonesian Agency of Food Security and Agriculture Field Supervisor, District Boyolali, Central Java Provinces) and farmer groups. GIS GEODATA meets the needs of surveillance devices that include: (1) mapping of the disease, (2) analysis of the dynamics of the disease, and (3) prediction of attacks / disease outbreaks in a particular region. GIS GEODATA is currently under implementation in the laboratory field observations of plant pest in Central Java province, Indonesia.
Full Text Available Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated by successes made in non-disease specific community-based early warning systems with a view to identify opportunities for developing similar systems for malaria. This article reviewed the existing community-based early warning systems documented in literature. The types of disasters that are addressed by these systems and the methodologies utilised in the development of the systems were identified. The review showed that most of the documented community-based early warning systems focus on natural disasters such as floods, drought, and landslides. Community-based early warning systems for human diseases are very few, even though such systems exist at national and regional and global levels. There is a clear gap in terms of community-based malaria early warning systems. The methodologies for the development of the community-based early warning systems reviewed mainly derive from the four elements of early warning systems; namely risk knowledge, monitoring, warning communication and response capability. The review indicated the need for the development of community based early warning systems for human diseases. Keywords: community; early warning; disaster; hazards
Digital systems will continue to enhance operation and safety in the nuclear industry. However, they are complex and operators have found it difficult to demonstrate the levels of reliability needed to justify their use. This article describes just some of the varied experiences collected by Arizona Public Service and lessons learned which show clearly why caution must be used whenever and wherever these are introduced. (author)
Margaret Macherera; Moses J. Chimbari
Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated...
Full Text Available Computerized, continuous monitoring environmental early warning systems are complex networks that merge measurements with the information technology. Accuracy, consistency, reliability and data quality are their most important features. Several effects may disturb their characteristics: hostile environment, unreliable communications, poor quality of equipment nonqualified users or service personnel. According to our experiences, a number of measures should be taken to enhance system performances and to maintain them at the desired level. In the paper, we are presenting an analysis of system requirements, possible disturbances and corrective measures that give the main directives for the design, construction and exploitation of the environmental early warning systems. Procedures which ensure data integrity and quality are mentioned. Finally, the contemporary system approach based on the LAN/WAN network topology with Intranet/Internet software is proposed, together with case descriptions of two already operating systems, based on computer-network principle.
Arrúa, Alejandra; Curutchet, María Rosa; Rey, Natalia; Barreto, Patricia; Golovchenko, Nadya; Sellanes, Andrea; Velazco, Guillermo; Winokur, Medy; Giménez, Ana; Ares, Gastón
Research on the relative influence of package features on children's perception of food products is still necessary to aid policy design and development. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the relative influence of two front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition labelling schemes, the traffic light system and Chilean warning system, and label design on children's choice of two popular snack foods in Uruguay, wafer cookies and orange juice. A total of 442 children in grades 4 to 6 from 12 primary schools in Montevideo (Uruguay) participated in the study. They were asked to complete a choice-conjoint task with wafer cookies and orange juice labels, varying in label design and the inclusion of FOP nutrition information. Half of the children completed the task with labels featuring the traffic-light system (n = 217) and the other half with labels featuring the Chilean warning system (n = 225). Children's choices of wafer cookies and juice labels was significantly influenced by both label design and FOP nutritional labels. The relative impact of FOP nutritional labelling on children's choices was higher for the warning system compared to the traffic-light system. Results from the present work stress the need to regulate the design of packages and the inclusion of nutrient claims, and provide preliminary evidence of the potential of warnings to discourage children's choice of unhealthful products. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Machín, Leandro; Aschemann-Witzel, Jessica; Curutchet, María Rosa; Giménez, Ana; Ares, Gastón
The inclusion of more attention-grabbing and easily interpretable front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition information is one of the public policies that can be implemented to empower consumers to identify unhealthful food products and to make more informed food choices. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the influence of two FOP nutrition labelling schemes - the traffic light labelling and the warning scheme - on consumer food purchases when facing a health goal. The study was conducted with 1182 people from Montevideo (Uruguay), recruited using a Facebook advertisement. Participants were randomly allocated to one of three between-subjects experimental conditions: (i) a control condition with no FOP nutrition information, (ii) FOP nutrition information using a modified version of the traffic light system including information about calorie, saturated fat, sugars and sodium content per portion, and (iii) FOP nutrition information using the Chilean warning system including separate signs for high calorie, saturated fat, sugars and sodium content. Respondents were asked to imagine that they had to purchase food in order to prepare a healthy dinner for themselves and their family, using the website of an online grocery store. Results showed that FOP nutrition information effectively improved the average healthfulness of participants' choices compared to the control condition, both in terms of the average nutritional composition of the purchased products and expenditure in specific product categories. No relevant differences between the effect of the traffic light and the warning system were found. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.
Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.
In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.
In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.
Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole
Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.
Recognizing that a radiological accident may have a widespread effect, the Slovenian government has decided to establish an early warning system. The aim of it is to detect any incident (domestic or foreign) involving radioactivity as fast as possible, to initiate appropriate measures, and to give immediate warning to the population
Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.
Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.
Full Text Available This article discusses aspects of communication architecture for early warning systems (EWS in general and gives details of the specific communication architecture of an early warning system against tsunamis. While its sensors are the "eyes and ears" of a warning system and enable the system to sense physical effects, its communication links and terminals are its "nerves and mouth" which transport measurements and estimates within the system and eventually warnings towards the affected population. Designing the communication architecture of an EWS against tsunamis is particularly challenging. Its sensors are typically very heterogeneous and spread several thousand kilometers apart. They are often located in remote areas and belong to different organizations. Similarly, the geographic spread of the potentially affected population is wide. Moreover, a failure to deliver a warning has fatal consequences. Yet, the communication infrastructure is likely to be affected by the disaster itself. Based on an analysis of the criticality, vulnerability and availability of communication means, we describe the design and implementation of a communication system that employs both terrestrial and satellite communication links. We believe that many of the issues we encountered during our work in the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009 on the design and implementation communication architecture are also relevant for other types of warning systems. With this article, we intend to share our insights and lessons learned.
Meng, Fanxing; Li, Shuling; Cao, Lingzhi; Peng, Qijia; Li, Musen; Wang, Chunhui; Zhang, Wei
Professional drivers have been characterized as experiencing heavy fatigue resulting from long driving time in their daily work. This study aimed to explore the potential demand of Fatigue Warning Systems (FWSs) among professional drivers as a means of reducing the danger of fatigue driving and to examine their opinions regarding the design of FWSs. Six focus groups with 35 participants and a questionnaire survey with 600 respondents were conducted among Chinese truck and taxi drivers to collect qualitative and quantitative data concerning the current situation of fatigue driving and opinions regarding the design of FWSs. The results revealed that both truck and taxi drivers had a positive attitude toward FWSs, and they hoped this system could not only monitor and warn them regarding their fatigue but also somewhat relieve their fatigue before they could stop and rest. As for warning signals, participants preferred auditory warnings, as opposed to visual, vibrotactile or electric stimuli. Interestingly, it was proposed that verbal warnings involving the information regarding consequences of fatigue driving or the wishes of drivers' family members would be more effective. Additionally, different warning patterns, including graded, single and continuous warnings, were discussed in the focus group. Finally, the participants proposed many other suggestions, as well as their concerns regarding FWSs, which will provide valuable information for companies who wish to develop FWSs for professional drivers. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) has implemented a fog detection and warning system on Highway 99 near Fresno. The entire central valley region is susceptible to Tule fog, which can reduce visibility tremendously, sometimes to n...
Bründl, M.; Stoffel, L.
As a consequence of the avalanche winter in January/February 1999 in Switzerland the project "intercantonal early warning and crisis information system" (IFKIS) was initialised. The goal of this project was to close the gaps recognised in the event analysis of this one-month avalanche period, which caused 17 fatalities and over 600 million CHF of damage [1,2]. Whereas the system of integral avalanche protection consisting of technical measures, land use planning and protection forests proved to be successful, the most important gaps were found to be in the organisational part. Especially communities who did not have an every-winter-experience had faced problems in managing the extraordinary event. The main deficiencies were less experienced or even missing local avalanche safety services and missing information and communication. The results of the IFKIS project embrace a concept for education courses, a concept for compulsory booklets and a guideline for the daily work in local avalanche safety services, and the information system IFKIS-InfoManager improving the two-way communication between the national avalanche warning service and the local services on the one side and enhancing the communication between local and regional avalanche services (IFKIS-MIS) on the other side . The results of the project IFKIS are implemented in practice since 10 years. Since 2000 every winter two to three courses were conducted at two levels either in German, French and Italian. Since 2000 about thousand participants completed the courses. Feedback from participants and observations made by cantonal authorities and the national avalanche warning centre SLF revealed that these education courses greatly improved the local capacity for dealing with critical avalanche situations. The system of regular avalanches courses at the community level served meanwhile as a good-practice example for comparable courses initialised by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) as a
Bock, Daniel M.; Kim, Keehoon; Mapar, Jalal
We are developing a Structure Health Assessment and Warning System (SHAWS) based on building displacement measurements and wireless communication. SHAWS will measure and predict the stability/instability of a building, determine whether it is safe for emergency responders to enter during an emergency, and provide individual warnings on the condition of the structure. SHAWS incorporates remote sensing nodes (RSNs) installed on the exterior frame of a building. Each RSN includes a temperature sensor, a three-axis accelerometer making static-acceleration measurements, and a ZigBee wireless system (IEEE 802.15.4). The RSNs will be deployed remotely using an air cannon delivery system, with each RSN having an innovative adhesive structure for fast (<10 min) and strong installation under emergency conditions. Once the building has moved past a threshold (~0.25 in./building story), a warning will be issued to emergency responders. In addition to the RSNs, SHAWS will include a base station located on an emergency responder's primary vehicle, a PDA for mobile data display to guide responders, and individual warning modules that can be worn by each responder. The individual warning modules will include visual and audio indicators with a ZigBee receiver to provide the proper degree of warning to each responder.
Berkowitz, Murray R
Current information systems for use in detecting bioterrorist attacks lack a consistent, overarching information architecture. An overview of the use of biological agents as weapons during a bioterrorist attack is presented. Proposed are the design, development, and implementation of a medical informatics system to mine pertinent databases, retrieve relevant data, invoke appropriate biostatistical and epidemiological software packages, and automatically analyze these data. The top-level information architecture is presented. Systems requirements and functional specifications for this level are presented. Finally, future studies are identified.
Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin
The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7
Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael
The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure...... supporting inter-vehicle communication.This paper presents our results on requirementsidentication, design, and prototyping of the infrastructure.The infrastructure combines communication via mobilephones with communication based on the principles ofad-hoc networking, and it supports units in being...... updatedduring operation. The presented prototypes and associatedexperimental results demonstrate the main functionalitiesof the communication infrastructure, and have led to theinitial deployment of LIWAS units....
Full Text Available Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity.
Cong, Zhen; Luo, Jianjun; Liang, Daan; Nejat, Ali
People may receive tornado warnings from multiple information sources, but little is known about factors that affect the number of warning information sources (WISs). This study examined predictors for the number of WISs with a telephone survey on randomly sampled residents in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri, approximately 1 year after both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5) in 2011. The survey included 1006 finished interviews and the working sample included 903 respondents. Poisson regression and Zero-Inflated Poisson regression showed that older age and having an emergency plan predicted more WISs in both cities. Education, marital status, and gender affected the possibilities of receiving warnings and the number of WISs either in Joplin or in Tuscaloosa. The findings suggest that social disparity affects the access to warnings not only with respect to the likelihood of receiving any warnings but also with respect to the number of WISs. In addition, historical and social contexts are important for examining predictors for the number of WISs. We recommend that the number of WISs should be regarded as an important measure to evaluate access to warnings in addition to the likelihood of receiving warnings. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:168-172).
Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan
Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Ali Awan, Shaukat
Meteorologically, there are two situations which may cause three types of floods in Indus Basin in Pakistan: i) Meteorological Situation for Category-I Floods when the seasonal low is a semi permanent weather system situated over south eastern Balochistan, south western Punjab, adjoining parts of Sindh get intensified and causes the moisture from the Arabian Sea to be brought up to upper catchments of Chenab and Jhelum rivers. (ii) Meteorological Situation for Category-11 and Category-111 Floods, which is linked with monsoon low/depression. Such monsoon systems originate in Bay of Bengal region and then move across India in general west/north westerly direction arrive over Rajasthan or any of adjoining states of India. Flood management in Pakistan is multi-functional process involving a number of different organizations. The first step in the process is issuance of flood forecast/warning, which is performed by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) utilizing satellite cloud pictures and quantitative precipitation measurement radar data, in addition to the conventional weather forecasting facilities. For quantitative flood forecasting, hydrological data is obtained through the Provincial Irrigation Department and WAPDA. Furthermore, improved rainfall/runoff and flood routing models have been developed to provide more reliable and explicit flood information to a flood prone population.(Author)
Talpade, Rajesh; Ghosh, Abhrajit
.... We have empirically validated this hypothesis by analysis of 41,000 trace-routes to 20 Internet targets from 24 Looking-Glass sites, and 30-days of Border Gateway Protocol-derived path information...
Hellman, S. B.; Lisowski, S.; Baker, B.; Hagerty, M.; Lomax, A.; Leifer, J. M.; Thies, D. A.; Schnackenberg, A.; Barrows, J.
Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). While this project was funded by NOAA to solve a specific problem, the requirements that the delivered system be both open source and easily maintainable have resulted in the creation of a variety of open source (OS) software packages. The open source software is now complete and this is a presentation of the OS Software that has been funded by NOAA for benefit of the entire seismic community. The design architecture comprises three distinct components: (1) The user interface, (2) The real-time data acquisition and processing system and (3) The scientific algorithm library. The system follows a modular design with loose coupling between components. We now identify the major project constituents. The user interface, CAVE, is written in Java and is compatible with the existing National Weather Service (NWS) open source graphical system AWIPS. The selected real-time seismic acquisition and processing system is open source SeisComp3 (sc3). The seismic library (libseismic) contains numerous custom written and wrapped open source seismic algorithms (e.g., ML/mb/Ms/Mwp, mantle magnitude (Mm), w-phase moment tensor, bodywave moment tensor, finite-fault inversion, array processing). The seismic library is organized in a way (function naming and usage) that will be familiar to users of Matlab. The seismic library extends sc3 so that it can be called by the real-time system, but it can also be driven and tested outside of sc3, for example, by ObsPy or Earthworm. To unify the three principal components we have developed a flexible and lightweight communication layer called SeismoEdex.
Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal
Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning
Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington
Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to
Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.
The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system
Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.
An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.
Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G
Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
... Information Collection; Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Device Systems; Examination and Test Requirements ACTION: Notice of request for public comments. SUMMARY: The Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA... public comment version of this information collection package. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Roslyn B...
Ionescu, C.; Marmureanu, A.; Grigore, A.; Tataru, D.
Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km.Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk given by strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)
Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wenzel, Friedemann; Bonjer, K. P.
Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km. Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the mega cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk due to strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and issue warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)
Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.
After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.
Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.
An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows
... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION GRADE CROSSING SIGNAL SYSTEM SAFETY AND STATE ACTION PLANS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.211 Security of warning system apparatus...
Biondi, Francesco; Strayer, David L; Rossi, Riccardo; Gastaldi, Massimiliano; Mulatti, Claudio
This study investigated whether multimodal redundant warnings presented by advanced assistance systems reduce brake response times. Warnings presented by assistance systems are designed to assist drivers by informing them that evasive driving maneuvers are needed in order to avoid a potential accident. If these warnings are poorly designed, they may distract drivers, slow their responses, and reduce road safety. In two experiments, participants drove a simulated vehicle equipped with a forward collision avoidance system. Auditory, vibrotactile, and multimodal warnings were presented when the time to collision was shorter than five seconds. The effects of these warnings were investigated with participants performing a concurrent cell phone conversation (Exp. 1) or driving in high-density traffic (Exp. 2). Braking times and subjective workload were measured. Multimodal redundant warnings elicited faster braking reaction times. These warnings were found to be effective even when talking on a cell phone (Exp. 1) or driving in dense traffic (Exp. 2). Multimodal warnings produced higher ratings of urgency, but ratings of frustration did not increase compared to other warnings. Findings obtained in these two experiments are important given that faster braking responses may reduce the potential for a collision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.
The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.
The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.
Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.
In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance
Botma, H. & Oei, H.-L.
This article outlines a method of evaluating a 'local queue warning system', in principle intended only to warn drivers of unexpected congestion at known discontinuities of the road geomctry (bottleneck) and give them advisory speed indications. A prerequisite for installing this system is therefore
Wang, Wen-cong; Hu, Hui-jun; Jin, Dong-dong; Chu, Xin-bo; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Liu, Jin-sheng; Xiao, Ting; Shao, Si-pei
Ultraviolet warning technology is one of the important methods for missile warning. It provides a very effective way to detect the target for missile approaching alarm. With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. Compared to infrared warning, the ultraviolet warning has high efficiency and low false alarm rate. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge of missile warning technology. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. For the ultraviolet warning system, the optimal working waveband is 250 nm 280 nm (Solar Blind UV) due to the strong absorption of ozone layer. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure includes a primary optical system, an ultraviolet reflector array, an ultraviolet imaging system and an ultraviolet interference imaging system. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm.A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.
Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.
This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.
Pescaroli, G.; Magni, M.
Many studies discuss the economic and technical aspects of flood warnings. Less attention has been given to the social and behavioural patterns that affect alert services. In particular, the literature focuses on warnings activated in river basins or marine environments without providing clear evidence on Mediterranean coastal areas, even though these are subjected to growing flood risk related to climate change. This paper is a first attempt to bridge this gap. Our research develops an in-depth analysis of the village of Cesenatico on the Adriatic Sea coast. Here the municipality adopted two complementary warning systems: a siren and an alert via short message service (SMS). The analysis focuses on a survey conducted in 2011 and 2012 with 228 participants. The relationships between social and behavioural variables and warning services are investigated as well as flood preparedness and information dissemination. Qualitative evidence from informal interviews is used to support the understanding of key responses. The conclusions show how different social and behavioural patterns can influence the effectiveness and use of warning systems, regardless of the technology adopted and the structural mitigation measures implemented. Education, training and accountability are seen to be critical elements for implementation. Finally, the statistical output is used to suggest new questions and new directions for research.
... processes and student outcomes. The project responds to a need expressed by members of the REL Midwest's Ohio Dropout Prevention Alliance for clear information about the efficacy of early warning systems. Despite the strong foundational research on the use of early indicators to identify students who are at...
Full Text Available Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows, their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and nonstructural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche
... to the terrain awareness and warning system audio and visual warnings. (d) Exceptions. Paragraphs (a... after March 29, 2002. Except as provided in paragraph (d) of this section, no person may operate a... minimum meets the requirements for Class B equipment in Technical Standard Order (TSO)-C151. (b) Airplanes...
Xu, Yangyang; Wang, Ying
This paper mainly designs a low cost, high-accuracy, micro-miniaturization, and digital display and acousto-optic alarm features of the vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system that based on MCU AT89C51. The vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system includes forward anti-collision warning system, auto parking systems and reversing anti-collision radar system. It mainly develops on the basis of ultrasonic distance measurement, its performance is reliable, thus the driving safety is greatly improved and the parking security and efficiency enhance enormously.
Neal, C.; Girina, O.; Senyukov, S.; Rybin, A.; Osiensky, J.; Izbekov, P.; Ferguson, G.
More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.
Bründl, Michael; Sättele, Martina; Krautblatter, Michael; Straub, Daniel
Rockslides and rockfalls can pose high risk to human settlements and traffic infrastructure. In addition to structural mitigation measures like rockfall nets, warning systems are increasingly installed to reduce rockfall risks. Whereas for structural mitigation measures with reducing effects on the spatial extent a structured evaluation method is existing, no or only few approaches to assess the effectiveness for warning systems are known. Especially for higher magnitude rockfalls structural mitigation measures are not effective, and reliable early warning systems will be essential in future. In response to that, we developed a classification and a framework to assess the reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems (Sättele et al, 2015a; 2016). Here, we demonstrate an application for the rockfall warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012 (Sättele et al., 2015b). We show that it is necessary to design such a warning system as fail-safe construction, which has to incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. With a hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting an event and on initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on related intervention cost. We conclude that it is possible to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of warning systems, which helps to optimize mitigation strategies against rockfall events. References Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Reliability and effectiveness of warning systems for natural hazards: concept and application to debris flow warning, Rel. Eng. Syst. Safety, 142, 192-202, 2015a. Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: How reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 605, 1-14, 2015b. Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and
Boldyreff, Anton S.; Bespalov, Dmitry A.; Adzhiev, Anatoly Kh.
Methods of artificial intelligence are a good solution for weather phenomena forecasting. They allow to process a large amount of diverse data. Recirculation Neural Networks is implemented in the paper for the system of thunderstorm events prediction. Large amounts of experimental data from lightning sensors and electric field mills networks are received and analyzed. The average recognition accuracy of sensor signals is calculated. It is shown that Recirculation Neural Networks is a promising solution in the forecasting of thunderstorms and weather phenomena, characterized by the high efficiency of the recognition elements of the sensor signals, allows to compress images and highlight their characteristic features for subsequent recognition.
Christofides, S [Medical Physics Department, Nicosia General Hospital, Nicosia (Cyprus)
This paper presents the hardware design, the development of the software and the use of the Telemetric Early Warning Environmental Radiation Monitoring System (TEWERMS) of Cyprus. (author). 3 refs, 6 figs.
Full Text Available Pest early warning technology is part of the prerequisite for the timely and effective control of pest outbreaks. Traditional pest warning system with artificial mathematical statistics, radar, and remote sensing has some deficiency in many aspects, such as higher cost, weakness of accuracy, low efficiency, and so on. In this study, Pest image data was collected and information about four major vegetable pests (Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius, Phyllotreta striolata (Fabricius, Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus, and Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande (Thysanoptera, Thripidae in southern China was extracted. A multi-sensor network system was constructed to collect small-scale environmental data on vegetable production sites. The key factors affecting the distribution of pests were discovered by multi-dimensional information, such as soil, environment, eco-climate, and meteorology of vegetable fields, and finally, the vegetable pest warning system that is based on multidimensional big data (VPWS-MBD was implemented. Pest and environmental data from Guangzhou Dongsheng Bio-Park were collected from June 2017 to February 2018. The number of pests is classified as level I (0–56, level II (57–131, level III (132–299, and level IV (above 300 by K-Means algorithm. The Pearson correlation coefficient and the grey relational analysis algorithm were used to calculate the five key influence factors of rainfall, soil temperature, air temperature, leaf surface humidity, and soil moisture. Finally, Back Propagation (BP Neural Network was used for classification prediction. The result shows: I-level warning accuracy was 96.14%, recall rate was 97.56%; II-level pest warning accuracy was 95.34%, the recall rate was 96.45%; III-level pest warning accuracy of 100%, the recall rate was 96.28%; IV-level pest warning accuracy of 100%, recall rate was 100%. It proves that the early warning system can effectively predict vegetable pests and achieve the early warning of
Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline
The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then
Cua, G. B.; Fischer, M.; Caprio, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Cisn Earthquake Early Warning Project Team
The Virtual Seismologist (VS) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm is one of 3 EEW approaches being incorporated into the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a prototype EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. The VS algorithm, implemented by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich, is a Bayesian approach to EEW, wherein the most probable source estimate at any given time is a combination of contributions from a likehihood function that evolves in response to incoming data from the on-going earthquake, and selected prior information, which can include factors such as network topology, the Gutenberg-Richter relationship or previously observed seismicity. The VS codes have been running in real-time at the Southern California Seismic Network since July 2008, and at the Northern California Seismic Network since February 2009. We discuss recent enhancements to the VS EEW algorithm that are being integrated into CISN ShakeAlert. We developed and continue to test a multiple-threshold event detection scheme, which uses different association / location approaches depending on the peak amplitudes associated with an incoming P pick. With this scheme, an event with sufficiently high initial amplitudes can be declared on the basis of a single station, maximizing warning times for damaging events for which EEW is most relevant. Smaller, non-damaging events, which will have lower initial amplitudes, will require more picks to initiate an event declaration, with the goal of reducing false alarms. This transforms the VS codes from a regional EEW approach reliant on traditional location estimation (and the requirement of at least 4 picks as implemented by the Binder Earthworm phase associator) into an on-site/regional approach capable of providing a continuously evolving stream of EEW information starting from the first P-detection. Real-time and offline analysis on Swiss and California waveform datasets indicate that the
Fang, N.; Bedient, P.
Houston has a long history of flooding problems as a serious nature. For instance, Houstonians suffered from severe flood inundation during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Radar-based flood warning systems as non-structural tools to provide accurate and timely warnings to the public and private entities are greatly needed for urban areas prone to flash floods. Fortunately, the advent of GIS, radar-based rainfall estimation using NEXRAD, and real-time delivery systems on the internet have allowed flood alert systems to provide important advanced warning of impending flood conditions. Thus, emergency personnel can take proper steps to mitigate against catastrophic losses. The Rice and Texas Medical Center (TMC) Flood Alert System (FAS2) has been delivering warning information with 2 to 3 hours of lead time to facility personnel in a readily understood format for more than 40 events since 1997. The system performed well during these major rainfall events with R square value of 93%. The current system has been improved by incorporating a new hydraulic prediction tool - FloodPlain Map Library (FPML). The FPML module aims to provide visualized information such as floodplain maps and water surface elevations instead of just showing hydrographs in real time based on NEXRAD radar rainfall data. During Hurricane Ike (September, 2008), FAS2 successfully provided precise and timely flood warning information to TMC with the peak flow difference of 3.6% and the volume difference of 5.6%; timing was excellent for this double-peaked event. With the funding from the Texas Department of Transportation, a similar flood warning system has been developed at a critical transportation pass along Highway 288 in Houston, Texas. In order to enable emergency personnel to begin flood preparation with as much lead time as possible, FAS2 is being used as a prototype to develop warning system for other flood-prone areas such as City of Sugar Land.
Şahıngıl, Mehmet Cihan
A missile warning system can detect the incoming missile threat(s) and automatically cue the other Electronic Attack (EA) systems in the suit, such as Directed Infrared Counter Measure (DIRCM) system and/or Counter Measure Dispensing System (CMDS). Most missile warning systems are currently based on passive sensor technology operating in either Solar Blind Ultraviolet (SBUV) or Midwave Infrared (MWIR) bands on which there is an intensive emission from the exhaust plume of the threatening missile. Although passive missile warning systems have some clear advantages over pulse-Doppler radar (PDR) based active missile warning systems, they show poorer performance in terms of time-to-impact (TTI) estimation which is critical for optimizing the countermeasures and also "passive kill assessment". In this paper, we consider this problem, namely, TTI estimation from passive measurements and present a TTI estimation scheme which can be used in passive missile warning systems. Our problem formulation is based on Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The algorithm uses the area parameter of the threat plume which is derived from the used image frame.
Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca
Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a
Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel
Early Warning Systems (EWS) are increasingly applied to mitigate the risks posed by natural hazards. To compare the effect of EWS with alternative risk reduction measures and to optimize their design and operation, their reliability and effectiveness must be quantified. In the present contribution, a framework approach to the evaluation of threshold-based EWS for natural hazards is presented. The system reliability is classically represented by the Probability of Detection (POD) and Probability of False Alarms (PFA). We demonstrate how the EWS effectiveness, which is a measure of risk reduction, can be formulated as a function of POD and PFA. To model the EWS and compute the reliability, we develop a framework based on Bayesian Networks, which is further extended to a decision graph, facilitating the optimization of the warning system. In a case study, the framework is applied to the assessment of an existing debris flow EWS. The application demonstrates the potential of the framework for identifying the important factors influencing the effectiveness of the EWS and determining optimal warning strategies and system configurations. - Highlights: • Warning systems are increasingly applied measures to reduce natural hazard risks. • Bayesian Networks (BN) are powerful tools to quantify warning system's reliability. • The effectiveness is defined to assess the optimality of warning systems. • By extending BNs to decision graphs, the optimal warning strategy is identified. • Sensors positioning significantly influence the effectiveness of warning systems
Moeller, E; Bernstein, L
Underwater pipelines for unloading oil tankers, e.g. in 30 km distance from the harbour site, are required to be flexible and require supervision. This is done by implementation of oil sensitive sensors between the inner rubber tube and the following impregnated textile layer. The generated sensor signals, influenced by leak oil, have to be wireless transmitted from 150 meters under water to the supervisory station at the coast. Sensor configurations are described, to derive the point of the leakage from the topologized warning signals.
Samadi, Slina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila
At the close of the twentieth century, natural hazards and disasters are one of the most common forms of disasters around the world. Natural disasters cause in significant loss of life and serious economic, environmental and social impacts that greatly retard the development process. Careful hazard assessment and planning, and a range of social, economic and political measures, can significantly contain these threats. Risk is defined as the potential for loss or damage as the result of a particular action or decision and Risk Management is a process consisting of well-defined steps which, when taken in sequence, support better decision making by contributing to a greater insight into risks and their impacts. Most commonly, there are three components in a natural disaster plan: monitoring and early warning; risk assessment; and mitigation and response. Given the improved tools and technologies available today, it is possible to provide disaster information and minimize the potential damage of disasters. In the following parts of the report, the national early warning systems for flood would be discussed, as one of the important component of natural disaster risk management. In 1. R. of Iran, also, different types of natural disasters occur, such as drought, flood, earthquake, sea-level rise, dust storm, hail, freezing and etc, but Flood hazard and disaster is one of the most frequent and damaging types of natural disasters. They have been the most common type of geophysical disaster in the latter half of the twentieth century in Iran, generating an estimated more than 20 percent of all disasters from 1950 to 2003. One of the hazardous floods of Iran occurred in Golestan and north of Khorasan provinces, located in north-east of the country, on August 2001 and 2002. In this regard, according to the responsibility of I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) on the flood forecasting, the early warning issue of the mentioned flood, issued within 48 hour's in
Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.
In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to
Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.
Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.
The development of an on-site warning system was reported. This system improves the timing of warnings and reduces the number of false alarms by improving the method of estimating the JMA seismic intensity using earthquake early warning system information based on site-specific data. Moreover, the development of an application for practical use in a construction company and an integrated system for realizing system shutdown was also reported. The concept of this system is based on the following. Seismic intensity is not distributed concentrically, and the attenuation relationship cannot explain the distribution of seismic intensity precisely. The standard method of seismic intensity prediction is construed as 'attenuation relationship + soil amplification factor', but this may be improved in the reformulation 'original attenuation relationship for each site + correction factors dependent on the epicenter location and depth' using a seismic intensity database that includes data on recent and historical earthquakes. (authors)
Cindro, M.; Mitic, D.; Stritar, A.
When designing an upgrade of early warning network for radiological emergencies one has to consider physical criteria as well as technical and financial possibilities, making the system the best possible compromise between the above mentioned aspects. In the case of the Slovenian Early Warning System (EWS) upgrade, the design was even harder because of the need to implement the existing measuring sites into the new scheme. We plan to add 35 new locations with external radiation and meteorology measurements to the 42 already existing sites. In the article we will describe the selection criteria for measuring sites and the requirements for the measuring equipment as well as a discussion of the physical quantities that need to be measured. In addition to gamma dose rate measurements, which are essential for radiological emergencies, meteorological measurements also provide vital information for the assessment of the situation. Especially we describe an additional necessary meteorological equipment which has to be installed. Today's communication technologies offer many possibilities for data transfer from the measuring site to the central data gathering unit and one has to choose the most appropriate one, primarily considering reliability but also cost effectiveness. For that reason new measuring sites will be at the locations already used for meteorological measurements by the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia. The Central Unit (CU) of such a network is the core of the system were all data have to be controlled, analysed and presented to the operator providing him with as much data as possible in a simple and clear fashion. (author)
Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir
Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly
Kalin, Lovro; Marija, Mokoric; Tomislav, Kozaric
Croatia, as all Mediterranean countries, is strongly affected by large wildfires, particularly in the coastal region. In the last two decades the number and intensity of fires has been significantly increased, which is unanimously associated with climate change, e.g. global warming. More extreme fires are observed, and the fire-fighting season has been expanded to June and September. The meteorological support for fire protection and planning is therefore even more important. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia a comprehensive monitoring and warning system has been established. It includes standard components, such as short term forecast of Fire Weather Index (FWI), but long range forecast as well. However, due to more frequent hot and dry seasons, FWI index often does not provide additional information of extremely high fire danger, since it regularly takes the highest values for long periods. Therefore the additional tools have been investigated. One of widely used meteorological products is the Haines index (HI). It provides information of potential fire growth, taking into account only the vertical instability of the atmosphere, and not the state of the fuel. Several analyses and studies carried out at the Service confirmed the correlation of high HI values with large and extreme fires. The Haines index forecast has been used at the Service for several years, employing European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global prediction model, as well as the limited-area Aladin model. The verification results show that these forecast are reliable, when compared to radiosonde measurements. All these results provided the introduction of the additional fire warnings, that are issued by the Service's Forecast Department.
Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.
Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the
Dombrowski, H.; Neumaier, S.; Thompson, I. M. G.; Wissmann, F.
In 2006, the European Radiation Dosimetry (EURADOS) Working Group on Environmental Radiation Monitoring (WG3) organised a third European intercomparison of dosimetry systems operated in national early warning networks. Similar to the intercomparisons in 1999 and 2002, the main aim of this exercise was to support the process of harmonisation of area monitoring in Europe by providing the network operators with basic information on the calibration and performance of their dosimetry systems. In order to characterise these systems, their following basic parameters were investigated: the response to terrestrial and cosmic radiation, the detectors' inherent background, the response at low dose rates, the energy dependence of the response as well as the sensitivity of the detector systems to small changes of the dose rate in a natural environmental radiation field. In the 2006 EURADOS intercomparison, scientists from seven countries participated to study the characteristics of 11 detector systems. All results are presented in terms of the operational quantity ambient dose equivalent, H * (10). The advent of this quantity has caused the development of new detector systems for area monitoring. Some of these new systems participated in a EURADOS intercomparison for the first time. The results are consistently presented together with uncertainties so that statistical effects can be distinguished from real detector features, which improves the interpretation of the results. By using the results of this intercomparison, some detectors were re-calibrated. The achievable improvements concerning harmonisation in dose-rate measurements in the natural environment are discussed. (authors)
Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.
The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.
Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Shirshov, G.S.; Melnikova, N.B.; Belleman, R.G.; Rusadi, F.I.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Gouldby, B.P.; Lhomme, J.; Balis, B.; Bubak, M.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Ozhigin, A.V.; Lang, B.; Meijer, R.J.
We present a prototype of the flood early warning system (EWS) developed within the UrbanFlood FP7 project. The system monitors sensor networks installed in flood defenses (dikes, dams, embankments, etc.), detects sensor signal abnormalities, calculates dike failure probability, and simulates
Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.
Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.
Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.
Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.
Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, an...
Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.
Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special
Due to the Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant accident of March 28, 1979, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Federal Emergency Management Agency require a general upgrading of existing Emergency Preparedness Plans. NUREG-0654/FEMA REP-1, Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, dated October 1980, describes the Emergency Plans required and includes the Plant Operator's Onsite Plan, as well as the State, County, and Local Offsite Plans. As part of these Emergency Preparedness Plans, an Emergency Notification System is required to alert the general population within the Emergency Planning Zone surrounding a Nuclear Power Plant that a general emergency has occurred and that they should tune to an Emergency Broadcast Station for further information and instructions. The emergency notification system for Beaver Valley Power Station is described. The system is the capability of alerting 100% of the population with 5 mi of Beaver Valley Power Station within 15 min, and the capability of alerting 100% of the population within 10 mi of Beaver Valley Power Station within 45 min
... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating characteristics of electromagnetic, electronic, or... limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...
Full Text Available The article describes shortly the objectives of a Food Early Warning System (FEWS project, as well as its organisation. The specifie case of Somalia, where the project had to evolve in increasingly difficult situations, and the solutions used so as to preserve the output, are described.
This thesis concerns the development of methods that can provide, in realtime, an early warning for an emerging blackout in electric power systems. The blackout in E-Denmark and S-Sweden on September 23, 2003 is the main motivation for the method development. The blackout was caused by occurrence...
Lipinski, P.; Isajenko, K.
The article describes the software for the management of early warning system based on ASS-500 station. The software can communicate with the central computer using TCP/IP protocol. This allows remote control of the station through modem or local area network connection. The article describes Windows based user interface of the program
Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Kozionov, A.P.; Kusherbaeva, V.T.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Meijer, R.J.; Hinkelmann, R.; Nasermoaddeli, M.H.; Liong, S.Y.; Savic, D.; Fröhle, P.; Daemrich, K.F.
We present in a data-driven approach for detection of anomalies in earthen dam (dike) behaviour that can indicate the onset of flood defence structure failure. This approach is implemented in the UrbanFlood early warning system's Artificial Intelligence component that processes dike measurements in
The Drunk Driving Warning System (DDWS) is a vehicle-mounted device for testing driver impairment and activating alarms. The driver must pass a steering competency test (the Critical Tracking Task or CTT) in order to drive the car in a normal manner....
Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke
Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…
Daniela Couto Carvalho Barra
Full Text Available A hybrid study combining technological production and methodological research aiming to establish associations between the data and information that are part of a Computerized Nursing Process according to the ICNP® Version 1.0, indicators of patient safety and quality of care. Based on the guidelines of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the American Association of Critical Care Nurses for the expansion of warning systems, five warning systems were developed: potential for iatrogenic pneumothorax, potential for care-related infections, potential for suture dehiscence in patients after abdominal or pelvic surgery, potential for loss of vascular access, and potential for endotracheal extubation. The warning systems are a continuous computerized resource of essential situations that promote patient safety and enable the construction of a way to stimulate clinical reasoning and support clinical decision making of nurses in intensive care.
Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.
CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.
Hancock, Holly E; Fisk, Arthur D; Rogers, Wendy A
Two experiments were conducted to determine if age affects comprehension for explicit and implied warning information and, if so, to reveal the nature of such effects. Experiment 1 measured younger (18-23 years) and older (65-75 years) adults' comprehension for real-world warnings via a verification test presented immediately after reading the warnings or after a delay. In Experiment 2, younger (18-22 years) and older (64-76 years) participants also read fabricated warnings that were inconsistent with real-world knowledge. In both experiments, older adults frequently failed to infer the correct hazard and safety information. The older adults also had trouble understanding warning information even when it was explicitly stated (when no inferences were required), especially when memory demands were high and product-specific knowledge could not be used. That many of the older adults did not understand commonly used product warnings indicates that the wording on many household products is not conducive to being understood by everyone who uses them. Actual or potential applications of this research include the recommendation that designers of product labels, warnings, and instructions should consider minimizing memory load and maximizing opportunities for knowledge application when designing consumer warnings.
Gaztelumendi, Santiago; Egaña, Joseba; Liria, Pedro; Gonzalez, Manuel; Aranda, José Antonio; Anitua, Pedro
This work presents the main characteristics of the Basque Meteorology Agency (Euskalmet) maritime-coastal risk warning system, with special emphasis on the latest updates, including a clear differentiation on specific warning messages addressing sea conditions for navigation purposes in the first 2 nautical miles, and expected coastal impacts. Some details of the warning bulletin for maritime and coastal risk situations are also presented, together with other communication products and strategies used in coastal and maritime severe episodes at the Basque coast. Today, three different aspects are included in the coastal-maritime risk warning system in Basque Country, related to the main potential severe events that affecting coastal activities. - "Galerna" risk relates to a sudden wind reversal that can severely affect coastal navigation and recreational activities. - "Navigation" risk relates to severe sea state conditions for 0-2 miles, affecting different navigation activities. - "Coastal impact" risk relates to adverse wave characteristics and tidal surges that induce flooding events and different impacts in littoral areas.
Lemoine, G.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Csak, G.
The number of web based platforms for crop monitoring has grown rapidly over the last years and anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators can be accessed online thanks to a number of web based portals. However, while these systems make available a large amount of crop monitoring data to the agriculture and food security analysts, there is no global platform which provides agricultural production hotspot warning in a highly automatic and timely manner. Therefore a web based system providing timely warning evidence as maps and short narratives is currently under development by the Joint Research Centre. The system (called "HotSpot Detection System of Agriculture Production Anomalies", HSDS) will focus on water limited agricultural systems worldwide. The automatic analysis of relevant meteorological and vegetation indicators at selected administrative units (Gaul 1 level) will trigger warning messages for the areas where anomalous conditions are observed. The level of warning (ranging from "watch" to "alert") will depend on the nature and number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. Information regarding the extent of the agricultural areas concerned by the anomaly and the progress of the agricultural season will complement the warning label. In addition, we are testing supplementary detailed information from other sources for the areas triggering a warning. These regard the automatic web-based and food security-tailored analysis of media (using the JRC Media Monitor semantic search engine) and the automatic detection of active crop area using Sentinel 1, upcoming Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. The basic processing will be fully automated and updated every 10 days exploiting low resolution rainfall estimates and satellite vegetation indices. Maps, trend graphs and statistics accompanied by short narratives edited by a team of crop monitoring experts, will be made available on the website on a
Harriman, Lindsey M.
With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.
Full Text Available In order to solve the shortcomings of the landslide monitoring technology method, a set of landslides monitoring and early warning system is designed. It can achieve real-time sensor data acquisition, remote transmission and query display. In addition, aiming at the harsh environment of landslide monitoring and the performance requirements of the monitoring system, an improved minimum hop routing protocol is proposed. It can reduce network energy consumption, enhance network robustness, and improve node layout and networking flexibility. In order to realize the remote transmission of data, GPRS wireless communication is used to transmit monitoring data. Combined with remote monitoring center, real-time data display, query, preservation and landslide warning and prediction are realized. The results show that the sensor data acquisition system is accurate, the system is stable, and the node network is flexible. Therefore, the monitoring system has a good use value.
Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis
Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.
Bonafe, J. L.
From its first designed airplane, Airbus considered mandatory a help in the crew's decision-making process to initiate an escape maneuver and help to successfully realize it. All the Airbus airplanes designed since 1975 included an alpha-floor function and a speed reference control law imbedded in the speed reference system (SRS) box for A 300 and FAC and FCC for A 310, A300/600 and the A 320. Alpha-Floor function takes into account the airplane energy situation considering angle of attack and observed longitudinal situation in order to apply immediately the full power without any pilot action. Speed reference managers control airspeed and/or ground speed in order to survive a maximum in shear situation. In order to comply with the new FAA regulation: Aerospatiale and Airbus developed more efficient systems. A comparison between 1975 and a newly developed system is given. It is explained how the new system improves the situation.
Huang Huang; Jianhua Ni; Yu Zhang; Tianlu Qian; Dingtao Shen; Jiechen Wang
Landslides are the most frequent type of natural disaster, and they bring about large-scale damage and are a threat to human lives and infrastructure; therefore, the ability to conduct real-time monitoring and early warning is important. In this study, a Web3DGIS (Web3D geographic information systems) system for monitoring and forecasting landslides was developed using the Danjiangkou Reservoir area as a case study. The development of this technique involved system construction, functional de...
Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong
Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords
Reymond, D.; Robert, S.; Thomas, Y.; Schindelé, F.
An integrated system named TREMORS (Tsunami Risk Evaluation through seismic Moment of a Real-time System) has been installed in EVORA station, in Portugal which has been affected by historical tsunamis. The system is based on a three component long period seismic station linked to a compatible IBM_PC with a specific software. The goals of this system are the followings: detect earthquake, locate them, compute their seismic moment, give a seismic warning. The warnings are based on the seismic moment estimation and all the processing are made automatically. The finality of this study is to check the quality of estimation of the main parameters of interest in a goal of tsunami warning: the location which depends of azimuth and distance, and at last the seismic moment, M 0, which controls the earthquake size. The sine qua non condition for obtaining an automatic location is that the 3 main seismic phases P, S, R must be visible. This study gives satisfying results (automatic analysis): ± 5° errors in azimuth and epicentral distance, and a standard deviation of less than a factor 2 for the seismic moment M 0.
Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.
The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.
Full Text Available LED-based system, running with the current of high-voltage lines and converting the current flowing through the line into the light by using a toroid transformer, has been developed. The transformer’s primary winding is constituted by the high voltage power line. Toroidal core consists of two equal parts and the secondary windings are evenly placed on these two parts. The system is mounted on the high-voltage lines as a clamp. The secondary winding ends are connected in series by the connector on the clamp. LEDs are supplied by the voltage at the ends of secondary. Current flowing through highvoltage transmission lines is converted to voltage by the toroidal transformer and the light emitting LEDs are supplied with this voltage. The theory of the conversion of the current flowing through the line into the light is given. The system, running with the current of the line and converting the current into the light, has been developed. System has many application areas such as warning high voltage lines (warning winches to not hinder the high-voltage lines when working under the lines, warning planes to not touch the high-voltage lines, remote measurement of high-voltage line currents, and local illumination of the line area
Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil
Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited SILENT WARNING...PERFORMING OR GANIZATION NA:i\\ti E (S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SP ONSORING /MONIT ORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND...Homeland Sectu’ity Advisory System, Boston Marathon bombing, Christmas Day bomber, tmderwear bomber, hum cane , cotmteiteiTO!’ism, CT AB
White Album by Joan Didion . Copyright © 1979 by Joan Didion . Reprinted with the permission of Simon and Schuster. "Indications, Warning, and Crisis...and the system. The chief symptom is memorably suggested in these passages by the writer, Joan Didion , on an illness she has suffered. Referring to...Science Review, Vol. 73, 1979, pp, 171-180. 210 IWAMS (40) "We tell ourselves": See Joan Didion , The White Album. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1979, p. 11
Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.
Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.
The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical
Sarvari, A.; Cindro, M.; Krizman, M.; Mitic, D.
The main task of the Early Warning System in Slovenia is to warn the competent authorities of the increase of external radiation. Only an efficient Ewes can cope with the situation that we have in case of nuclear or radiation accident. For such purposes the measuring locations have to fulfil some basic radiation monitoring criteria (population density, distance from NPP, precipitation, land use). In this article the results of each criterion as well as the total set is described. The results of the applied criteria are presented with colour contour images. The purpose of this article is to allocate the critical areas on the territory of Slovenia that have to be considered in final determination of the appropriate measuring locations. (author)
Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.
Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.
Hafiz, I; Sidek, L M; Basri, H; Fukami, K; Hanapi, M N; Livia, L; Nor, M D
Floods can bring such disasters to the affected dweller due to loss of properties, crops and even deaths. The damages to properties and crops by the severe flooding are occurred due to the increase in the economic value of the properties as well as the extent of the flood. Flood forecasting and warning system is one of the examples of the non-structural measures which can give early warning to the affected people. People who live near the flood-prone areas will be warned so that they can evacuate themselves and their belongings before the arrival of the flood. This can considerably reduce flood loss and damage and above all, the loss of human lives. Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is a runoff analysis model converting rainfall into runoff for a given river basin. The simulation can be done using either ground or satellite-based rainfall to produce calculated discharge within the river. The calculated discharge is used to generate the flood inundation map within the catchment area for the selected flood event using Infowork RS.
Mandl, Daniel; Frye, Stuart; Cappelaere, Pat; Sohlberg, Robert; Handy, Matthew; Grossman, Robert
Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated
Full Text Available As an important application of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS, advances in intelligent transportation systems (ITS improve driving safety by informing drivers of hazards with warnings in advance. The evaluation of the warning effectiveness is an important issue in facilitating communication of ITS. The goal of the present study was to develop a scale to evaluate the warning utility, namely, the effectiveness of a warning in preventing accidents in general. A driving simulator study was conducted to validate the Verbal Warning Utility Scale (VWUS in a simulated driving environment. The reliability analysis indicated a good split-half reliability for the VWUS with a Spearman-Brown Coefficient of 0.873. The predictive validity of VWUS in measuring the effectiveness of the verbal warnings was verified by the significant prediction of safety benefits indicated by variables, including reduced kinetic energy and collision rate. Compared to conducting experimental studies, this scale provides a simpler way to evaluate overall utility of verbal warnings in communicating associated hazards in intelligent transportation systems. This scale can be further applied to improve the design of warnings of ITS in order to improve transportation safety. The applications of the scale in nonverbal warning situations and limitations of the current scale are also discussed.
Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim
The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System)  project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC  SWE  compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform)  and the open source GIS uDig , integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service)  and WFS (Web Feature Service)  spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service)  to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS  CAP (Common Alerting Protocol)  standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) . Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP  web services. Based on results of GITEWS  - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus  - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the
Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J
Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word "WARNING", and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.
Lai, Yeong-Lin; Chou, Yung-Hua; Chang, Li-Chih
Collisions between emergency vehicles for emergency medical services (EMS) and public road users have been a serious problem, impacting on the safety of road users, emergency medical technicians (EMTs), and the patients on board. The aim of this study is to develop a novel intelligent emergency vehicle warning system for EMS applications. The intelligent emergency vehicle warning system is developed by Internet of Things (IoT), radio-frequency identification (RFID), and Wi-Fi technologies. The system consists of three major parts: a system trigger tag, an RFID system in an emergency vehicle, and an RFID system at an intersection. The RFID system either in an emergency vehicle or at an intersection contains a controller, an ultrahigh-frequency (UHF) RFID reader module, a Wi-Fi module, and a 2.4-GHz antenna. In addition, a UHF ID antenna is especially designed for the RFID system in an emergency vehicle. The IoT system provides real-time visual warning at an intersection and siren warning from an emergency vehicle in order to effectively inform road users about an emergency vehicle approaching. The developed intelligent IoT emergency vehicle warning system demonstrates the capabilities of real-time visual and siren warnings for EMS safety.
Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen
Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing
Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad
Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.
Samadi, Sina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila
Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate; it occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. It occurs in high as well as low rainfall areas. Drought is the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation received over an extended period of time, usually a season or more in length, although other climatic factors (such as high temperatures, high winds, and low relative humidity) are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate the severity of the event. Most parts of the 1. R. of Iran have a high degree of aridity and pronounced rainfall variability in large parts of their territories and are therefore highly vulnerable to drought. Therefore, drought is one of greatest natural disasters in our country. Among all natural disasters, droughts occur the most frequently, have the longest duration, cover the largest area, and cause the greatest losses in agricultural production. The quantification of impacts and the provision of disaster relief are far more difficult tasks for drought than they are for other natural hazards. Since, the drought is a normal part of climate, it is difficult to determine its onset, development, and end. This fact emphasizes the importance of developing comprehensive monitoring or early warning systems. Drought prediction (monthly, seasonal, or yearly trends) is particularly useful for the drought planning and mitigation. Drought Early Warning System is applied as a pilot study during the last two years. The NDEWSI is based on the monitoring drought indices, such as SPI, Palmer and NDVI, and preparedness, where will be discussed in this paper. In this paper, we have presented a brief drought analysis using the SPI and demonstrated its potential use for drought analysis with minimal data requirements. It is our view that development of a drought monitoring system, based largely on meteorological and climatic information, can be a great help for early assessment of drought impacts in
The gamma radiation early warning system in Croatia was established in 1993. The first configuration contained 3 measuring stations connected to the monitoring center and up today the system is expanded with 5 additional locations. Each location is equipped with the MFM202 gamma-monitor and additional equipment that is not unique for all locations. This difference in remote equipment configuration caused by different communication medium used, is the reason to improve existing system trough equipment unification introducing PLC unit in the standard configuration. Such configuration enables additional functions such as automatic alerting and collecting meteorological data. (author)
Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Seibert, Jan
Flood warning and response have normally been focused on the technical aspects and disregarded the connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social dimensions. An increasing body of research, however, points at the importance of considering socio-hydrological aspects to improve flood damage mitigation. One of the key factors is the preparedness of the public and first responders during flood situations, which is influenced by many behavioural traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or denial. In this study, we investigate the impact of social preparedness on the efficiency of flood early warning systems by using the recency of flood experience as a proxy for social preparedness. To this end, we developed a stylised model and a synthetic data-set to perform a hypothetical analysis. The main findings point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially when the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. More specifically, efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings from this study provide insights into the importance of considering social preparedness in decision-making for disaster risk reduction.
Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery
The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.
Full Text Available Repeated boiler tube leak trips in coal fired power plants can increase operating cost significantly. An early detection and diagnosis of boiler trips is essential for continuous safe operations in the plant. In this study two artificial intelligent monitoring systems specialized in boiler tube leak trips have been proposed. The first intelligent warning system (IWS-1 represents the use of pure artificial neural network system whereas the second intelligent warning system (IWS-2 represents merging of genetic algorithms and artificial neural networks as a hybrid intelligent system. The Extreme Learning Machine (ELM methodology was also adopted in IWS-1 and compared with traditional training algorithms. Genetic algorithm (GA was adopted in IWS-2 to optimize the ANN topology and the boiler parameters. An integrated data preparation framework was established for 3 real cases of boiler tube leak trip based on a thermal power plant in Malaysia. Both the IWSs were developed using MATLAB coding for training and validation. The hybrid IWS-2 performed better than IWS-1.The developed system was validated to be able to predict trips before the plant monitoring system. The proposed artificial intelligent system could be adopted as a reliable monitoring system of the thermal power plant boilers.
Brown, Molly E.
Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.
Goyal, A.; Yadav, H.; Tyagi, H.; Gosain, A. K.
Extreme floods are common phenomena during Indian Monsoons. The National Capital Territory area of India, Delhi, frequently experiences fluvial as well as pluvial inundation due to its proximity to river Yamuna and poor functioning of its stormwater drainage system. The urban floods result in severe waterlogging and heavy traffic snarls, bringing life in this megapolis to a halt. The city has witnessed six major floods since 1900 and thus its residents are well conscious of potential flood risks but the city still lacks a flood warning system. The flood related risks can be considerably reduced, if not eliminated, by issuing timely warnings and implementing adaptive measures. Therefore, the present study attempts to develop a web based platform that integrates Web-GIS technology and mathematical simulation modelling to provide an effective and reliable early flood warning service for Delhi. The study makes use of India Metorological Department's Doppler radar-derived near real time rainfall estimates of 15 minutes time step. The developed SWMM model has been validated using information from gauges, monitoring sensors and crowd sourcing techniques and utilises capabilities of cloud computing on server side for fast processing. This study also recommends safe evacuation policy and remedial measures for flooding hotspots as part of flood risk management plan. With heightened risk of floods in fast urbanizing areas, this work becomes highly pertinent as flood warning system with adequate lead time can not only save precious lives but can also substantially reduce flood damages.
Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe
The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce
Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan
To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.
Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.
transfer methodologies. Achieving Context and Meaning: To provide deeper meaning and knowledge about the Early Warning System to users, this stage of the Early Warning System provides more information about specific examples of disturbances seen in the phenological data, as well the spatial and temporal context to these disturbances. The main components of this stage are specific case studies of forest disturbances. Accessing Data: This component of the Early Warning System includes products for research scientists, the aerial detection survey sketch mapper community, and others who will access and analyze the Early Warning System and phenological data. Products and data will be available through online GIS mashups and WMS and KML downloads. Utilizing Services: The final stage of the Early Warning System supports the analysis of phenological data and serves the results to those end users, including forest managers, the forest industry, and the public, who need to locate past, present, and potential forest disturbances. The main components of this stage include data-driven web tools, automated analysis processes, and end user training programs.
Dymov I. S.
Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the development of a new automation recognition and warning system against driver falling asleep in-traffic. The issue of the physical condition control of professional drivers on the voyage has been considered both on the part of efficiency and quality of its determination, and in terms of improving overall road safety. The existing and widely used devices for determining the transition to the stage of sleep of drivers being in-traffic have been analyzed. Their advantages and disadvantages have been detected. It has been established that the main negative factor preventing the mass introduction of pre-existing warning systems is the need to wear one or another monitoring device before starting the movement. Carried out project research work has proposed a complex monitoring of the physical and physiological condition of driving person as a new warning method against falling asleep in-traffic. The proposed variations of algorithmic implementations can be used in long-distance trucks and passenger vehicles. Two different versions of the automatic control status of the driver physical condition have been considered. The first approach has proposed the use of sensors of the biometric parameters of body, pulsus, body temperature, and hands on wheel pressure sensors. The second one has proposed using the tracking cameras. Both for the first and second versions of the automation system a toolset of control devices is being installed inside the vehicle and have no physical, so irritating action on the driver. Software approach for the false operation rejection of the devices has been developed. The paper considers the flow diagrams of the automatic systems and logical structure of analysis and decision-making. The set of impacts intended for driver's awakening has been proposed. The conclusion about the engineering perspectives of the proposed approach of projected automation systems has been made.
Full Text Available Recent research demonstrates that auditory and vibrotactile forward collision warnings presenting a motion signal (e.g., looming or apparent motion across the body surface can facilitate speeded braking reaction times (BRTs. The purpose of the present study was to expand on this work by directly comparing warning signals in which the motion conveyed was constant across all collision events with signals in which the speed of motion was dependent on the closing velocity (CV. Two experiments were conducted using a simulated car-following task and BRTs were measured. In Experiment 1, increasing intensity (looming vibrotactile signals were presented from a single tactor attached to the driver's waist. When the increase in intensity was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster as compared to a no-warning condition, however, they were not significantly different from constant intensity and CV-independent looming warnings. In Experiment 2, a vertical array of three tactors was used to create motion either towards (upwards or away (downwards from the driver's head. When the warning signal presented upwards motion that was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster than all other warning types. Downwards warnings led to a significantly higher number of brake activations in false alarm situations as compared to upwards moving warnings. The effectiveness of dynamic tactile collision warnings would therefore appear to depend on both the link between the warning and collision event and on the directionality of the warning signal.
Full Text Available Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.
Full Text Available The oil system security in a country or region will affect its sustainable development ability. China’s oil security has risen to the national strategic level. It is urgent to construct an early warning indicator system to reflect the oil security level accurately, as well as to diagnose and assess the oil system status effectively and put forward the corresponding proposals for ensuring oil security. An early warning indicator system of China’s oil system covering 23 sub-indicators from three aspects, i.e., resource security, market security and consumption security, was constructed using the SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions factor analysis method. It shows that China’s oil system safety level has been seriously threatened and is generally declining. However, due to the strong introduction of energy policies and increasing energy utilization technology in recent years, the increasing proportion of new energy, renewable energy and oil substitutes eases the energy security threats. In response to complex oil security issues, the Chinese government needs to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control at the policy level continuously, increase efforts to explore resource reserves, upgrade energy conservation and emission reduction technologies, develop new alternatives for oil products, and reduce the dependence on international oil imports.
Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth
Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.
Full Text Available A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System: An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC, where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.
Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale
A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.
Wurman, Gilead; Haering, Edward A, Jr.; Price, Michael J.
Several aerospace companies are designing quiet supersonic business jets for service over the United States. These aircraft have the potential to increase the occurrence of mild sonic booms across the country. This leads to interest among earthquake warning (EQW) developers and the general seismological community in characterizing the effect of sonic booms on seismic sensors in the field, their potential impact on EQW systems, and means of discriminating their signatures from those of earthquakes. The SonicBREWS project (Sonic Boom Resistant Earthquake Warning Systems) is a collaborative effort between Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. (SWS) and NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. This project aims to evaluate the effects of sonic booms on EQW sensors. The study consists of exposing high-sample-rate (1000 sps) triaxial accelerometers to sonic booms with overpressures ranging from 10 to 600 Pa in the free field and the built environment. The accelerometers record the coupling of the sonic boom to the ground and surrounding structures, while microphones record the acoustic wave above ground near the sensor. Sonic booms are broadband signals with more high-frequency content than earthquakes. Even a 1000 sps accelerometer will produce a significantly aliased record. Thus the observed peak ground velocity is strongly dependent on the sampling rate, and increases as the sampling rate is reduced. At 1000 sps we observe ground velocities that exceed those of P-waves from ML 3 earthquakes at local distances, suggesting that sonic booms are not negligible for EQW applications. We present the results of several experiments conducted under SonicBREWS showing the effects of typical-case low amplitude sonic booms and worst-case high amplitude booms. We show the effects of various sensor placements and sensor array geometries. Finally, we suggest possible avenues for discriminating sonic booms from earthquakes for the purposes of EQW.
Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael; Eskildsen, Toke
New pervasive computing technologies for sensing and communication open up novel possibilities for enhancing traffic safety. We are currently designing and implementing the Ex Hoc infrastructure framework for communication among mobile and stationary units including vehicles. The infrastructure...... will connect sensing devices on vehicles with sensing devices on other vehicles and with stationary communication units placed alongside roads. The current application of Ex Hoc is to enable the collection and dissemination of information on road condition through LIfe Warning Systems (LIWAS) units....
Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick
Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Early-warning systems have played an important role in preventing major industrial accidents and technological disasters. These systems record critical operating and performance parameters and raise warnings or alarms if these parameters cross acceptable limits. Most early-warning systems used in hazardous industries focus on the technological system and to a lesser extent on their human operators. However, industrial disasters are caused not only by technological and human failure, but also by organizational, regulatory, infrastructural, and community preparedness failures. Hazardous industries can benefit from the development of early-warning systems that have a broader scope than the core technology. These systems could cover financial, human resource, organizational policies, regulatory, infrastructural, and community-related variables. This paper develops some basic concepts that can help build managerially useful early-warning systems for safety, health, and environmental (SHE) incidents. It identifies variables that should be tracked, the threshold levels for these variables, and possible managerial reactions to warnings
Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.
A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will
Kim, Sehun; Shin, Seong-Jun; Kim, Hyunwoo; Kwon, Ki Hoon; Han, Younggoo
Recently, cyber attacks have become a serious hindrance to the stability of Internet. These attacks exploit interconnectivity of networks, propagate in an instant, and have become more sophisticated and evolutionary. Traditional Internet security systems such as firewalls, IDS and IPS are limited in terms of detecting recent cyber attacks in advance as these systems respond to Internet attacks only after the attacks inflict serious damage. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion forecasting system framework for an early warning system. The proposed system utilizes three types of forecasting methods: time-series analysis, probabilistic modeling, and data mining method. By combining these methods, it is possible to take advantage of the forecasting technique of each while overcoming their drawbacks. Experimental results show that the hybrid intrusion forecasting method outperforms each of three forecasting methods.
Wu, Y. M.
The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.
Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano
The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process
Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong; Zhang, Bo
Knowing the information dissemination mechanisms of different media and having an efficient information dissemination plan for disaster pre-warning plays a very important role in reducing losses and ensuring the safety of human beings. In this paper we established models of information dissemination for six typical information media, including short message service (SMS), microblogs, news portals, cell phones, television, and oral communication. Then, the information dissemination capability ...
Full Text Available GPS (Global Positioning System technology is widely used for positioning applications. Many of them have high requirements with respect to precision, reliability or fast product delivery, but usually not all at the same time as it is the case for early warning applications. The tasks for the GPS-based components within the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009 are to support the determination of sea levels (measured onshore and offshore and to detect co-seismic land mass displacements with the lowest possible latency (design goal: first reliable results after 5 min. The completed system was designed to fulfil these tasks in near real-time, rather than for scientific research requirements. The obtained data products (movements of GPS antennas are supporting the warning process in different ways. The measurements from GPS instruments on buoys allow the earliest possible detection or confirmation of tsunami waves on the ocean. Onshore GPS measurements are made collocated with tide gauges or seismological stations and give information about co-seismic land mass movements as recorded, e.g., during the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004 (Subarya et al., 2006. This information is important to separate tsunami-caused sea height movements from apparent sea height changes at tide gauge locations (sensor station movement and also as additional information about earthquakes' mechanisms, as this is an essential information to predict a tsunami (Sobolev et al., 2007.
This article gives an end-to-end overview of the GITEWS GPS-component system, from the GPS sensors (GPS receiver with GPS antenna and auxiliary systems, either onshore or offshore to the early warning centre displays. We describe how the GPS sensors have been installed, how they are operated and the methods used to collect, transfer and process the GPS data in near real-time. This includes the sensor system design, the communication
Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José
During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena
This SpringerBrief provides a general overview of the role of satellite applications for disaster mitigation, warning, planning, recovery and response. It covers both the overall role and perspective of the emergency management community as well as the various space applications that support their work. Key insights are provided as to how satellite telecommunications, remote sensing, navigation systems, GIS, and the emerging domain of social media are utilized in the context of emergency management needs and requirements. These systems are now critical in addressing major man-made and natural disasters. International policy and treaties are covered along with various case studies from around the world. These case studies indicate vital lessons that have been learned about how to use space systems more effectively in addressing the so-called “Disaster Cycle.” This book is appropriate for practicing emergency managers, Emergency Management (EM) courses, as well as for those involved in various space applica...
Thomson, Lisa M; Vandenberg, Brian; Fitzgerald, John L
To identify general and specific features of health information warning labels on alcohol beverage containers that could potentially inform the development and implementation of a new labelling regime in Australia. Mixed methods, including a cross-sectional population survey and a qualitative study of knowledge, attitudes and behaviours regarding alcohol beverage labelling. The population survey used computer-assisted telephone interviews of 1500 persons in Victoria, Australia to gauge the level of support for health information and warning labels. The qualitative study used six focus groups to test the suitability of 12 prototype labels that were placed in situ on a variety of alcohol beverage containers. The telephone survey found 80% to 90% support for a range of information that could potentially be mandated by government authorities for inclusion on labels (nutritional information, alcohol content, health warning, images). Focus group testing of the prototype label designs found that labels should be integrated with other alcohol-related health messages, such as government social advertising campaigns, and specific labels should be matched appropriately to specific consumer groups and beverage types. There are high levels of public support for health information and warning labels on alcohol beverages. This study contributes much needed empirical guidance for developing alcohol beverage labelling strategies in an Australian context. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.
Yang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, C.; Tang, D.
With the continuous development of social economy, the interaction between mankind and nature has become increasingly evident. Disastrous global catastrophes have occurred from time to time, causing huge losses to people's lives and property. All governments recognize the importance of the establishment of disaster early warning and release mechanisms, and it is also an urgent issue to improve the comprehensive service level of emergency response and disaster relief. However, disaster early warning and emergency relief information is usually generated by different departments, and the diverse data sources, difficult integration, and limited release speed have always been difficult issues to be solved. Block data is the aggregation of various distributed (point data) and segmentation (data) big data on a specific platform and make them happen continuous polymerization effect, block data theory is a good solution to cross-sectoral, cross-platform Disaster information data sharing and integration problems. This paper attempts to discuss the integrated service mechanism of disaster information aggregation and disaster relief based on block data theory and introduces a location-based integrated service system for disaster early warning and disaster relief.
Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong; Zhang, Bo
Knowing the information dissemination mechanisms of different media and having an efficient information dissemination plan for disaster pre-warning plays a very important role in reducing losses and ensuring the safety of human beings. In this paper we established models of information dissemination for six typical information media, including short message service (SMS), microblogs, news portals, cell phones, television, and oral communication. Then, the information dissemination capability of each medium concerning individuals of different ages, genders, and residential areas was simulated, and the dissemination characteristics were studied. Finally, radar graphs were used to illustrate comprehensive assessments of the six media; these graphs show directly the information dissemination characteristics of all media. The models and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of information dissemination for the purpose of disaster pre-warning and for formulating emergency plans which help to reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in a disaster.
Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.
Hellman, S. B.; Baker, B. I.; Hagerty, M. T.; Leifer, J. M.; Lisowski, S.; Thies, D. A.; Donnelly, B. K.; Griffith, F. P.
The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a project spearheaded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to update the United States' Tsunami Warning System software currently employed at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (Eva Beach, Hawaii) and the National Tsunami Warning Center (Palmer, Alaska). This entirely open source software project will integrate various seismic processing utilities with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's core software, AWIPS2. For the real-time and near real-time seismic processing aspect of this project, NOAA has elected to integrate the open source portions of GFZ's SeisComP 3 (SC3) processing system into AWIPS2. To provide for better tsunami threat assessments we are developing open source tools for magnitude estimations (e.g., moment magnitude, energy magnitude, surface wave magnitude), detection of slow earthquakes with the Theta discriminant, moment tensor inversions (e.g. W-phase and teleseismic body waves), finite fault inversions, and array processing. With our reliance on common data formats such as QuakeML and seismic community standard messaging systems, all new facilities introduced into AWIPS2 and SC3 will be available as stand-alone tools or could be easily integrated into other real time seismic monitoring systems such as Earthworm, Antelope, etc. Additionally, we have developed a template based design paradigm so that the developer or scientist can efficiently create upgrades, replacements, and/or new metrics to the seismic data processing with only a cursory knowledge of the underlying SC3.
Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.
Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.
This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A
Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall
Tang Lijuan; Huang Shunxiang; Wang Xinming
The issue of nuclear safety becomes the attention focus of international society after the nuclear accident happened in Fukushima. Aiming at the requirements of the prevention and controlling of Nuclear Accident establishment of Nuclear Accident Hazard Predicting, Warning and optimized Controlling System (NAPWS) is a imperative project that our country and army are desiderating, which includes multiple fields of subject as nuclear physics, atmospheric science, security science, computer science and geographical information technology, etc. Multiplatform, multi-system and multi-mode are integrated effectively based on GIS, accordingly the Predicting, Warning, and Optimized Controlling technology System of Nuclear Accident Hazard is established. (authors)
Veldhuis, J.; Konijn, E.A.; Seidell, J.C.
The present study investigated whether information or warnings about depictions of the thin-body ideal in mass media are effective in counteracting media-induced negative body perceptions of adolescent girls. Based on counter-advertising and reactance theories, our hypotheses were tested in a 3
Full Text Available This work precisely evaluates whether browser security warnings are as ineffective as proposed by popular sentiments and past writings. This research used different kinds of Android mobile browsers as well as desktop browsers to evaluate security warnings. Security experts and developers should give emphasis on making a user aware of security warnings and should not neglect aim of communicating this to users. Security experts and system architects should emphasis the goal of communicating security information to end users. In most of the browsers, security warnings are not emphasized, and browsers simply do not show warnings, or there are a number of ways to hide those warnings of malicious sites. This work precisely finds that how inconsistent browsers really are in prompting security warnings. In particular, majority of the modern mobile web browsers are vulnerable to these security threats. We find inconsistency in SSL warnings among web browsers. Based on this work, we make recommendations for warning designers and researchers.
Full Text Available Canada has coastlines on three of the four oceans on the globe, namely, the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans. The Pacific and Atlantic oceans are connected to the Arctic Ocean in the north, but still they are three distinct oceans, and need three individual tsunami warning systems. Tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are not as well documented as in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. From what is known, tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are rare and probably are small in amplitude. Because of very low population density, around the Canadian Arctic, at present, there is no priority for a tsunami warning system for Arctic Canada. For the Pacific Ocean, a tsunami warning system is in existence since 1948. In at least one sense, the warning aspects of the tsunami warning system for the Pacific coast of Canada, is relatively simple and straight forward, because it involves only the federal government (PSEPC and the provincial government of British Columbia (PEP. For the Atlantic Ocean, A tsunami warning system is now being established. The warning aspects will be some what more complex for eastern Canada, since it not only involves the federal government, but also five provinces, namely, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Quebec. The Alaska tsunami warning center (ATWC in Palmer, Alaska, provides tsunami warnings for both Pacific and Atlantic Canada.
Blanpied, M. L.; McBride, S.; Hardebeck, J.; Michael, A. J.; van der Elst, N.
Scientific organizations like the United States Geological Survey (USGS) release information to support effective responses during an earthquake crisis. Information is delivered to the White House, the National Command Center, the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security (including FEMA), Transportation, Energy, and Interior. Other crucial stakeholders include state officials and decision makers, emergency responders, numerous public and private infrastructure management centers (e.g., highways, railroads and pipelines), the media, and the public. To meet the diverse information requirements of these users, rapid earthquake notifications have been developed to be delivered by e-mail and text message, as well as a suite of earthquake information resources such as ShakeMaps, Did You Feel It?, PAGER impact estimates, and data are delivered via the web. The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system being developed for the U.S. West Coast will identify and characterize an earthquake a few seconds after it begins, estimate the likely intensity of ground shaking, and deliver brief but critically important warnings to people and infrastructure in harm's way. Currently the USGS is also developing a capability to deliver Operational Earthquake Forecasts (OEF). These provide estimates of potential seismic behavior after large earthquakes and during evolving aftershock sequences. Similar work is underway in New Zealand, Japan, and Italy. In the development of OEF forecasts, social science research conducted during these sequences indicates that aftershock forecasts are valued for a variety of reasons, from informing critical response and recovery decisions to psychologically preparing for more earthquakes. New tools will allow users to customize map-based, spatiotemporal forecasts to their specific needs. Hazard curves and other advanced information will also be available. For such authoritative information to be understood and used during the pressures of an earthquake
On December 7, 1988 a severe earthquake occurred at Spitak, approximately 90-100 km far from the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant in Yerivan. Another one named Vrancea earthquake which occurred on 4 March, 1977. During this earthquake, the Kozloduj NPP (Bulgaria) was strongly damaged. Until this event, seismic loadings had received scant attention in the siting of WWER's. However after the Kozlodui damage Soviet designers changed their opinion. In this study, the seismicity of the Black Sea region and eastern Europe, seismic requirements for WWER's and the changes in plants for which to resistant against to the earthquake are given. During the earthquake radiation levels obtained by Turkish early warning system is also given
R. F. Gee
The full operational test of the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) Public Warning Siren System (PWSS) was successfully conducted on September 27, 2000. The annual test is a full-scale sounding of the individual siren systems around each of the three Department of Energy (DOE) sites in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The purpose of the annual test is to demonstrate and validate the siren systems' ability to alert personnel outdoors in the Immediate Notification Zones (INZ) (approximately two miles) around each site. The success of this test is based on two critical functions of the siren system. The first function is system operability. The system is considered operable if 90% of the sirens are operational. System diagnostics and direct field observations were used to validate the operability of the siren systems. Based on the diagnostic results and field observations, greater than 90% of the sirens were considered operational. The second function is system audibility. The system is considered audible if the siren could be heard in the immediate notification zones around each of the three sites. Direct field observations, along with sound level measurements, were used to validate the audibility of the siren system. Based on the direct field observations and sound level measurements, the siren system was considered audible. The combination of field observations, system diagnostic status reports, and sound level measurements provided a high level of confidence that the system met and would meet operational requirements upon demand. As part of the overall system test, the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) activated the Emergency Alerting System (EAS), which utilized area radio stations to make announcements regarding the test and to remind residents of what to do in the event of an actual emergency
Broek, T.H.A. van den; Ploeg, J.
In this paper, a collision warning method between the host vehicle and target object(s) is studied. A probabilistic collision warning method is proposed, which is, in particular, useful for objects, e.g. vulnerable road users, which trajectories can rapidly change heading and/or velocity with
Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to
Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.
Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological
T. Perkins, R. Sundberg, J. Cordell, Z. Tun , and M. Owen, Real-time Target Motion Animation for Missile Warning System Testing, Proc. SPIE Vol 6208...Z39-18 Real-time target motion animation for missile warning system testing Timothy Perkins*a, Robert Sundberga, John Cordellb, Zaw Tunb, Mark
Magaletti, Erika; Garaventa, Francesca; David, Matej; Castriota, Luca; Kraus, Romina; Luna, Gian Marco; Silvestri, Cecilia; Forte, Cosmo; Bastianini, Mauro; Falautano, Manuela; Maggio, Teresa; Rak, Giulietta; Gollasch, Stephan
This paper describes the methodological approach used for the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Non Indigenous Species (NIS) and ballast water management and summarizes the results obtained. The specific goals of the EWS are firstly to warn vessels to prevent loading of ballast water when critical biological conditions occur in ports and surrounding areas i.e. mass development or blooms of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens (HAOP). Secondly, to warn environmental and health authorities when NIS or pathogens are present in ports or surrounding areas to enable an early response and an implementation of remediation measures. The EWS is designed to be used for implementing various parallel obligations, by taking into consideration different legal scopes, associated information and decision-making needs. The EWS was elaborated, tested in the Adriatic Sea and illustrated by two case studies. Although the EWS was developed with an Adriatic Sea focus, it is presented in a format so that it may be used as a model when establishing similar systems in other locations. The role of the various actors is discussed and recommendations on further developments of the EWS are presented. It was concluded that the EWS is a suitable tool to reduce the spread of potentially harmful and ballast water mediated species.
Full Text Available Prescribing inappropriate pill splitting is not rare in clinical practice. To reduce inappropriate pill splitting, we developed an automatic warning system linked to a computerized physician order entry (CPOE system for special oral formulation drugs in outpatient settings. We examined the impact of the warning system on inappropriate prescribing of pill splitting and assess prescribers' responses to the warnings.Drugs with extended-release or enteric-coated formulations that were not originally intended to be split were recognized as "special oral formulations". A hard-stop system which could examine non-integer doses of drugs with special oral formulations, provide warnings to interrupt inappropriate prescriptions was integrated in CPOE in a medical center since June 2010. We designed an intervention study to compare the inappropriate splitting before and after the implementation of the warning system (baseline period 2010 January to May vs. intervention period 2010 June to 2011 August. During the intervention period, prescription changes in response to a warning were logged and analyzed.A total of 470,611 prescribed drug items with 34 different drugs with special oral formulations were prescribed in the study period. During the 15-month intervention period, 909 warnings for 26 different drugs were triggered among 354,523 prescribed drug items with special oral formulations. The warning rate of inappropriate splitting in the late intervention period was lower than those in baseline period (0.16% vs. 0.61%, incidence rate ratio 0.27, 95% CI 0.23-0.31, P<0.001. In respond to warnings, physicians had to make adjustments, of which the majority was changing to an unsplit pill (72.9%.The interruptive warning system could avoid the prescriptions with inappropriate pill splitting. Accordingly, physicians changed their behavior of prescribing special oral formulations regarding inappropriate pill splitting. We suggest the establishment of such system
Park, Kwang-Soon; Kwon, Jae-Il; Kim, Jin-Ah; Heo, Ki-Young; Jun, Kicheon
Coastal hazards caused by both Mother Nature and humans cost tremendous social, economic and environmental damages. To mitigate these damages many countries have been running the operational forecasting or warning systems. Since 2009 Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) has been developed by the leading of Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) in Korea and KOOS has been operated in 2012. KOOS is consists of several operational modules of numerical models and real-time observations and produces the basic forecasting variables such as winds, tides, waves, currents, temperature and salinity and so on. In practical application systems include storm surges, oil spills, and search and rescue prediction models. In particular, abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves) have occurred in the East coast of Korea peninsula during winter season owing to the local meteorological condition over the East Sea, causing property damages and the loss of human lives. In order to improve wave forecast accuracy even very local wave characteristics, numerical wave modeling system using SWAN is established with data assimilation module using 4D-EnKF and sensitivity test has been conducted. During the typhoon period for the prediction of sever waves and the decision making support system for evacuation of the ships, a high-resolution wave forecasting system has been established and calibrated.
Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem
Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement
Brown, Timothy; He, Yefei; Roe, Cheryl; Schnell, Thomas
Pedestrian fatalities as a result of vehicle collisions are much more likely to happen at night than during day time. Poor visibility due to darkness is believed to be one of the causes for the higher vehicle collision rate at night. Existing studies have shown that night vision enhancement systems (NVES) may improve recognition distance, but may increase drivers' workload. The use of automatic warnings (AW) may help minimize workload, improve performance, and increase safety. In this study, we used a driving simulator to examine performance differences of a NVES with six different configurations of warning cues, including: visual, auditory, tactile, auditory and visual, tactile and visual, and no warning. Older drivers between the ages of 65 and 74 participated in the study. An analysis based on the distance to pedestrian threat at the onset of braking response revealed that tactile and auditory warnings performed the best, while visual warnings performed the worst. When tactile or auditory warnings were presented in combination with visual warning, their effectiveness decreased. This result demonstrated that, contrary to general sense regarding warning systems, multi-modal warnings involving visual cues degraded the effectiveness of NVES for older drivers.
Filman, Robert E.
I flew to Washington last week, a trip rich in distributed information management. Buying tickets, at the gate, in flight, landing and at the baggage claim, myriad messages about my reservation, the weather, our flight plans, gates, bags and so forth flew among a variety of travel agency, airline and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) computers and personnel. By and large, each kind of information ran on a particular application, often specialized to own data formats and communications network. I went to Washington to attend an FAA meeting on System-Wide Information Management (SWIM) for the National Airspace System (NAS) (http://www.nasarchitecture.faa.gov/Tutorials/NAS101.cfm). NAS (and its information infrastructure, SWIM) is an attempt to bring greater regularity, efficiency and uniformity to the collection of stovepipe applications now used to manage air traffic. Current systems hold information about flight plans, flight trajectories, weather, air turbulence, current and forecast weather, radar summaries, hazardous condition warnings, airport and airspace capacity constraints, temporary flight restrictions, and so forth. Information moving among these stovepipe systems is usually mediated by people (for example, air traffic controllers) or single-purpose applications. People, whose intelligence is critical for difficult tasks and unusual circumstances, are not as efficient as computers for tasks that can be automated. Better information sharing can lead to higher system capacity, more efficient utilization and safer operations. Better information sharing through greater automation is possible though not necessarily easy.
Pe Benito-Claudio, C.
This study starts by defining and explaining key concepts about warning, both as a process and a system. Thereafter, it presents a quantitative, probabilistic, and decision-oriented methodology for designing and evaluating a warning system. It illustrates the methodology for the case of rare, controllable, and potentially disastrous technological events, such as accidents in nuclear power plants. The methodology covers and links the three principal components of a warning system - signal (which is mainly technical), warning dissemination, and warning response (which are mainly social) - thereby allowing the relative evaluation of technological and social measures for reducing risks. Analytical principles and techniques of risk and decision analyses are applied. It defines a probabilistic performance measure to characterize each component of a warning system, and a value measure to assess the overall effectiveness of the system. An important aspect of this work is the integration, into one analytical model, of the results of engineering studies, such as probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants, and of empirical findings on human response to warning in sociological research. The models, calculations, and sensitivity analyses are done with influence diagrams that are both intuitive and mathematical. This work puts particular emphasis on the study of behavioral response of individuals to warning
Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.
Landslide early warning systems (EWSs) have to be implemented in areas with large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements (e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable signal levels of deployed sensors before being established) and specific issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23 monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual models.
The accident at Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant in 1979 was an emergency management disaster. Chief among the problems was ineffective public warning and communications. While it is difficult to assign blame for that condition to any given party or determine if it was due to unique situational factors, the failure led to fairly significant regulatory changes in the arena of public warning and notification. These changes are intended to avoid the problems that arose during the TMI accident. This chapter reviews these regulations and suggests an alternative set of criteria for evaluating warning systems. The criteria are used to assess the effectiveness of the warning system at the Ft. St. Vrain nuclear power plant in Colorado. The paper concludes with some discussion of the lessons learned from the TMI experience as they apply to warning systems for all nuclear generating stations
Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.
Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.
Full Text Available Landslides are the most frequent type of natural disaster, and they bring about large-scale damage and are a threat to human lives and infrastructure; therefore, the ability to conduct real-time monitoring and early warning is important. In this study, a Web3DGIS (Web3D geographic information systems system for monitoring and forecasting landslides was developed using the Danjiangkou Reservoir area as a case study. The development of this technique involved system construction, functional design, organizing and managing multi-source spatial data, and implementing a forecasting plan and landslide-forecasting model. By integrating sensor technologies, spatial information technologies, 3D visualization technologies, and a landslide-forecasting model, the results of this study provide a tool for real-time monitoring at potential landslide sites. When relevant data from these sites reach threshold values, the model automatically initiates forecasting procedures, and sends information to disaster prevention sectors for emergency management.
Kim, Tae Woo; Yun, Hong Sik
The holt of the seawater desalination process for fifty five days due to the eight-month long red tide in 2008 in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, had lost about 10 billion KRW. The POSCO Seawater Desalination facility, located in Gwangyang Bay Area in the Southern Sea, has produced 30,000 tons of fresh water per day since 2014. Since there has been an incident of red time in the area for three months in August, 2012, it is necessary to establish a warning system for red tide that threatens the stable operation of the seawater desalination facility. A red tide warning system can offer the seawater desalination facility manager customized services on red tide information and potential red tide inflow to the water intake. This study aimed to develop a red tide warning system in Gwangyang Bay Area by combining RS, modeling and monitoring technologies, which provides red tide forecasting information with which to effectively control the seawater desalination process. Using the proposed system, the seawater desalination facility manager can take phased measures to cope with the inflow of red tide. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was supported by a grant(16IFIP-C088924-03) from Industrial Facilities & Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MOLIT) of the Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA). This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2014R1A1A2054975).
Full Text Available Abstract Background Alcohol warning labels have a limited effect on drinking behavior, potentially because people devote minimal attention to them. We report findings from two studies in which we measured the extent to which alcohol consumers attend to warning labels on alcohol packaging, and aimed to identify if increased attention to warning labels is associated with motivation to change drinking behavior. Methods Study 1 (N = 60 was an exploratory cross-sectional study in which we used eye-tracking to measure visual attention to brand and health information on alcohol and soda containers. In study 2 (N = 120 we manipulated motivation to reduce drinking using an alcohol brief intervention (vs control intervention and measured heavy drinkers’ attention to branding and warning labels with the same eye-tracking paradigm as in study 1. Then, in a separate task we experimentally manipulated attention by drawing a brightly colored border around health (or brand information before measuring participants’ self-reported drinking intentions for the subsequent week. Results Study 1 showed that participants paid minimal attention to warning labels (7% of viewing time. Participants who were motivated to reduce drinking paid less attention to alcohol branding and alcohol warning labels. Results from study 2 showed that the alcohol brief intervention decreased attention to branding compared to the control condition, but it did not affect attention to warning labels. Furthermore, the experimental manipulation of attention to health or brand information did not influence drinking intentions for the subsequent week. Conclusions Alcohol consumers allocate minimal attention to warning labels on alcohol packaging and even if their attention is directed to these warning labels, this has no impact on their drinking intentions. The lack of attention to warning labels, even among people who actively want to cut down, suggests that there is room for
Kersbergen, Inge; Field, Matt
Alcohol warning labels have a limited effect on drinking behavior, potentially because people devote minimal attention to them. We report findings from two studies in which we measured the extent to which alcohol consumers attend to warning labels on alcohol packaging, and aimed to identify if increased attention to warning labels is associated with motivation to change drinking behavior. Study 1 (N = 60) was an exploratory cross-sectional study in which we used eye-tracking to measure visual attention to brand and health information on alcohol and soda containers. In study 2 (N = 120) we manipulated motivation to reduce drinking using an alcohol brief intervention (vs control intervention) and measured heavy drinkers' attention to branding and warning labels with the same eye-tracking paradigm as in study 1. Then, in a separate task we experimentally manipulated attention by drawing a brightly colored border around health (or brand) information before measuring participants' self-reported drinking intentions for the subsequent week. Study 1 showed that participants paid minimal attention to warning labels (7% of viewing time). Participants who were motivated to reduce drinking paid less attention to alcohol branding and alcohol warning labels. Results from study 2 showed that the alcohol brief intervention decreased attention to branding compared to the control condition, but it did not affect attention to warning labels. Furthermore, the experimental manipulation of attention to health or brand information did not influence drinking intentions for the subsequent week. Alcohol consumers allocate minimal attention to warning labels on alcohol packaging and even if their attention is directed to these warning labels, this has no impact on their drinking intentions. The lack of attention to warning labels, even among people who actively want to cut down, suggests that there is room for improvement in the content of health warnings on alcohol packaging.
Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.
The Drunk Driving Warning System (DDWS) is a vehicle-mounted device for testing driver impairment and activating alarms. The driver must pass a steering competency test in order to drive the car in a normal manner. The emergency flasher system operat...
Full Text Available Introduction: With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS. HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. Objective: To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. Methods: We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Findings and Conclusions: Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans.
Iranata, Data; Wahyuni, Endah; Murtiadi, Suryawan; Widodo, Amien; Riksakomara, Edwin; Sani, Nisfu Asrul
Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limit value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results
Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.
A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter
Gregory L. Alexander
Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of an early illness warning system used by an interdisciplinary team composed of clinicians and engineers in an independent living facility. The early illness warning system consists of algorithms which analyze resident activity patterns obtained from sensors embedded in residents' apartments. The engineers designed an automated reasoning system to generate clinically relevant alerts which are sent to clinicians when significant changes occur in the sensor data, for example declining activity levels. During January 2010 through July 2010, clinicians and engineers conducted weekly iterative review cycles of the early illness warning system to discuss concerns about the functionality of the warning system, to recommend solutions for the concerns, and to evaluate the implementation of the solutions. A total of 45 concerns were reviewed during this period. Iterative reviews resulted in greater efficiencies and satisfaction for clinician users who were monitoring elder activity patterns.
Spoor, J. H.; Hodge, W. H.; Fluk, M. J.; Bamford, T. F.
The Disaster Warning System (DWS) is a conceptual system which will provide the National Weather Service (NWS) with communication services in the 1980s to help minimize losses caused by natural disasters. The object of this study is a comparative analysis between a terrestrial DWS and a satellite DWS. Baseline systems satisfying the NOAA requirements were synthesized in sufficient detail so that a comparison could be made in terms of performance and cost. The cost of both baseline systems is dominated by the disaster warning and spotter reporting functions. An effort was undertaken to reduce system cost through lower-capacity alternative systems generated by modifying the baseline systems. By reducing the number of required channels and modifying the spotter reporting techniques, alternative satellite systems were synthesized. A terrestrial alternative with the coverage reduced to an estimated 95 percent of the population was considered.
Yu, Yanan; Wang, Xiaoxun; He, Chengcheng; Lai, Chenlong; Liu, Yuanchao
For overcoming the problems such as remote operation and dangerous tasks, multi-terminal remote monitoring and warning system based on STC89C52 Micro Control Unit and wireless communication technique was proposed. The system with MCU as its core adopted multiple sets of sensor device to monitor environment parameters of different locations, such as temperature, humidity, smoke other harmful gas concentration. Data information collected was transmitted remotely by wireless transceiver module, and then multi-channel data parameter was processed and displayed through serial communication protocol between the module and PC. The results of system could be checked in the form of web pages within a local network which plays a wireless monitoring and warning role. In a remote operation, four-rotor micro air vehicle which fixed airborne data acquisition device was utilized as a middleware between collecting terminal and PC to increase monitoring scope. Whole test system has characteristics of simple construction, convenience, real time ability and high reliability, which could meet the requirements of actual use.
Full Text Available The work considers different information systems, includingthe infonnation ~ystems with autonomous units, whichcany all their intelligence around with them, and those withcommunicating units, which infonn the motorist about the currentsituation of the road system by radio or other means. Thesymbols of various messages have three main objectives: to provideinstruction, to warn of oncoming dange1~ or to give adviceregarding parking or looking for altemative routes. When notused for these pwposes, they are used to provide general informationabout the weathe1~ temperature or possible attractions.The in-vehicle information systems fly to assist the motorist indriving, and they are promoted as part of the comprehensive intelligenttransport system.
Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.
Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put
Haimes, Yacov Y
... for both structural and nonstructural measures. The unifing theme of these results is that the design and evaluation of structural and nonstructural measures for flood mitigation, including flood warning and preparedness systems, is an integrative...
Moore, Linda K; Reese, Shawn
... tested. Much has been accomplished in recent years but the current hodgepodge of warning and alert systems is inadequate for fully alerting the public about terrorist attacks or natural disasters...
This paper evaluates the condition (i.e. health) of a tropical cyclone warning system (TCWS) during a 'quiet period' between infrequent intense cyclones. Capacity to make pre-disaster evaluations is important--disaster warning systems need to be in sound condition before, not after, disaster. The research--part of the UK's International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction Flagship Programme--focuses upon an evaluatory method first used on flood warning systems. The Criteria-development Matrix comprises social, organisational and institutional criteria by which a TCWS may be assessed using a five-stage development scale. This method is used to evaluate Mauritius's TCWS using in-depth interview data. Ways to enhance the method and apply it to other disaster warning systems are discussed. The TCWS in Mauritius is a relatively sound one from which others can learn. Weaknesses requiring attention for Mauritius's TCWS to progress to an advanced level of development are identified.
Chub, V.E.; Agaltseva, N.A.; Myagkov, S.V.
In Article 10 point 2 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and Drought it is pointed out that the National Action Plans 'envisage the strengthening of the national basis of the climatic, meteorological and hydrological studies and the extending the possibilities for the creation of the system of the early drought forecasting'. The Pilot Project << Early warning system of Drought,, was executed in Uzbekistan at support of Germany project on Convention to combat Desertification (GTZ-CCD). The objective of the project is the creation of the regional automated information system for the early drought warning (AISEWS). In the framework of the project it is proposed to fulfil the main following tasks: - development of concepts of preparing the databases on drought factors and keeping on the databank of drought conditions on territory of Republic Uzbekistan; - the creation of the regional informational basis of the hydro meteorological and agrometeorological information and the system of its keeping on the basis of GIS technique; - analysis of hydro meteorological situations causing the drought in the Aral sea basin; - experimental agrometeorological (in the course of the field studies) and numerical estimation of the parameters of the model of the runoff formation and soil drought; - adaptation of the models complex set of the runoff formation for hydrological objects; - development of out the technique for the long-term drought forecasting basing on the mathematical models of the runoff formation in the river basin; -development of the computer information system for the early drought forecasting with the elements of the operational information transfer to the users. For the Central Asian region the drought means, first of all, the deficit of the water resources that is why the forecasting of the water availability in rivers in the years with the water deficit is of the utmost importance. The following tasks should be fulfilled for the achieving the designed
The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)  is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In China, from local communities to entire nations, there was a patchwork of specialized hazard public alerting systems. And each system was often designed just for certain emergency situations and for certain communications media. Application took place in the NEWAS (National Early Warning Alerting Systems) project where CAP serves as central message to integrate all kind of hazard situations, including the natural calamity, accident disaster, public health emergency , social safety etc. Officially operated on May 2015, NEWAS now has completed docking work with 14 departments including civil administration, safety supervision, forestry, land, water conservancy, earthquake, traffic, meteorology, agriculture, tourism, food and drug supervision, public security and oceanic administration. Thus, several items in CAP has been modified, redefined and extended according to the various grading standards and publishing strategies, as well as the characteristics of Chinese Geocoding. NEWAS successfully delivers information to end users through 4 levels (i.e. State, province, prefecture and county) structure and by various means.  CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap  http://www.12379.cn/
Farid, M. M.; Prawito, Susila, I. P.; Yuniarto, A.
One effort to protect the environment from the increasing of potentially environmental radiation hazards as an impact of radiation discharge around nuclear facilities is by a continuous monitoring of the environmental radiation in real time It is important to disclose the dose rate information to public or authorities for radiological protection. In this research, we have designed a nuclear preparedness early warning system around the Serpong nuclear facility. The design is based on Arduino program, general packet radio service (GPRS) shield, and radio frequencies technology to transmit environmental radiation result of the measurement and meteorological data. Data was collected at a certain location at The Center for Informatics and Nuclear Strategic Zone Utilization BATAN Serpong. The system consistency models are defined by the quality of data and the level of radiation exposure in the deployed environment. Online users can access the website which displays the radiation dose on the environment marked on Google Map. This system is capable to issue an early warning emergency when the dose reaches three times of the background radiation exposure value, 250 nSv/hour.
Gunawan, Hendar; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan; Harjadi, Prih
Earthquake pose serious threat of live and properties for urban area near subduction zone offshore and active fault on land. Jakarta and Bandung is an example of big city that no system of Earthquake early warning (EEW) event very high urbanization, and has many important infra structure in the area. The capital city is potentially high risk ground shaking. EEW can be usefull tool for reducing earthquake hazard, if spatial relation between cities and earthquake source is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to response early warning message. An EEW and rapid response system can provide the critical information needed to minimized lost of live and property and direct rescue. Earthquake ground shaking with magnitude M>6.0 from zone of Megathrust, southern of West Java should potentially damage in the area of west java especially Bandung and Jakarta City. This research development of EEW parameter such as amplitude displacement (Pd), rapid magnitude determination (M) and Peak ground Velocity (PGV). We explore the practical approach to EEW with the use of Broadband seismogram signal. Time effective EEW which epicenter from megathrust zone has potential to provide EEW in the area of west java such as Jakarta first ground shaking more or less 60 second later and strong shaking 118 second after EEW Alarm on CISI Station. EEW notification at potentially damage in the area of west java can be predicted from the characteristic of Pd > 0.5 cm, M> 6 and PGV > 10 cm/sec. GIS as a tool for presentation of hazard mapping in the affected area.
Madureira, Guilherme; Carrilho, Fernando
Portugal mainland is located near the border between the Eurasian and Nubian plates, whose interaction is the main responsible for a significant seismic activity in the area, with historical occurrence of several catastrophic events (e.g. Lisbon 1755 earthquake [Mag 8.7]), most of which haviguilhng epicenter rise in submerged area, located in the Cadiz Gulf and Southwest of San Vincent Cape. Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is presently a very effective concept to be applied in the mitigation of the effects caused by large earthquakes. For the mentioned area a feasibility study of a EEWS was made in the ALERT-ES project. It was found that the system could be effective to protect cities and infrastructures located at larger distances (ex: Lisbon) from the areas, located south and southwest of PT mainland, where the larger earthquakes are expected to be originated. Considering the use of a new strong-motion network recently implemented in the south of PT mainland, we concluded that the lead-times could be improved. We opted by the implementation of the well known computational platform PRESTO. In the adaptation of the mentioned platform to the local reality one of the challenges was the computation of fast moment magnitude estimates, because regional attenuation must be properly considered, and a specific study was made on this issue. The several simulations that were performed showed a reasonably good performance of the system, both on magnitude evaluation and epicentre location. However we also noted that the problems in the acquisition instruments are a very important source of disturbance in the performance of the EEWS, pointing to a need of a very accurate quality control of the strong-motion network. Considering end-users, we are also developing specific software for intensity estimation at the target places and to trigger visual and audio alerts in accordance to the expected level of shaking. This work is supported by the EU project TSUMAPS-NEAM, Agreement Number
Full Text Available discrete switching state variable st, a latent continuous variable ht and an observable continuous variable vt. The graphical model of the SLDS is illustrated in Figure 2. The latent and observable variables form a linear dy- namic system (LDS). The LDS... is a state space model (Barber, 2012). The SLDS is modelled according to the following state space equations ht = A(st)ht−1 + ηht (st), (7.1) vt = B(st)ht + ηvt (st). (7.2) The matrix A(st) is referred to as the state transition matrix or the system...
Simón Soria, Fernando; Guillén Enríquez, Francisco Javier
The world is changing more and faster than ever before. New diseases are coming to light each year, controlled diseases are reemerging as potential threats, and natural or man-made disasters are increasingly affecting human health. The "International Health Regulations (2005)" reflect the changes in the response of public health to this new situation. Surveillance of specific diseases and predefined control measures have been replaced by surveillance of public health events of international concern and control measures adapted to each situation. The public health events of international interest are characterized by their seriousness, predictability, the risk of international spread and potential for travel or trade restrictions. The development of the European Early Warning and Response System in 1998 and the creation of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control in 2005 demonstrate political commitment in Europe, with early detection of and response to public health threats. However, timely risk evaluation and response at a national level requires improved data digitalization and accessibility, automatic notification processes, data analysis and dissemination of information, the combination of information from multiple sources and adaptation of public health services. The autonomous regions in Spain are initiating this adaptation process, but interoperability between systems and the development of guidelines for a coordinated response should be steered by the National Interregional Health Council and coordinated by the Ministry of Health. Efficient early warning systems of health threats that allow for a timely response and reduce uncertainty about information would help to minimize the risk of public health crises. The profile of public health threats is nonspecific. Early detection of threats requires access to information from multiple sources and efficient risk assessment. Key factors for improving the response to public health threats are the
Full Text Available Background: One of the important aspects of hospital preparedness in disasters is its rapid early warning system. In this study, the activation of early warning system was evaluated under the monitoring of disasters workgroup of the Ministry of Health based on the national program of “hospitals preparedness in disasters” in Shahid Motahari Hospital. Materials and Methods: The sample was composed of 801 adults exposed to the earthquake. Two months after the earthquake, all subjects were surveyed with measures administrated in a standard order as follows: demographic data sheet, disaster experiences scale (DES, general health questionnaire (GHQ, and symptom checklist 90-revised (SCL-90-R. Results: The results revealed that 23% of the survivors in the exposed group had ASD, 10% had anxiety symptoms, 7.5% depression, 4% MADD, 5% psychosomatic disorders, 10% phobia, 7% aggressive behavior, and 10% insomnia. Conclusion: This article has summarized the current status of information on mental disorders caused by experiencing or witnessing a life threatening severe earthquake. The experience of fear, helplessness, and panic during the earthquake, and the appraisal by the victims of serious psychological, social, as well as demographical consequences after the earthquake, were positively related to the subscale scores and the total score of GHQ, SCL-90-R, and DES.
Sohlberg, R. A.; Mandl, D.; Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Szarzynski, J.; Policelli, F.; van Langenhove, G.
During the past two years, there have been extensive floods in the country of Namibia, Africa which have affected up to a quarter of the population. Via a collaboration between a group funded by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) at NASA that has been performing various SensorWeb prototyping activities for disasters, the Department of Hydrology in Namibia and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) , experiments were conducted on how to apply various satellite resources integrated into a SensorWeb architecture along with in-situ sensors such as river gauges and rain gauges into a flood early warning system. The SensorWeb includes a global flood model and a higher resolution basin specific flood model. Furthermore, flood extent and status is monitored by optical and radar types of satellites and integrated via some automation. We have taken a practical approach to find out how to create a working system by selectively using the components that provide good results. The vision for the future is to combine this with the country side dwelling unit data base to create risk maps that provide specific warnings to houses within high risk areas based on near term predictions. This presentation will show some of the highlights of the effort thus far plus our future plans.
Sepic, Jadranka; Vilibic, Ivica
Atmospherically-generated tsunami-like waves, also known as meteotsunamis, pose a severe threat for exposed coastlines. Although not as destructive as ordinary tsunamis, several meters high meteotsunami waves can bring destruction, cause loss of human lives and raise panic. For that reason, MESSI, an integrative meteotsunami research & warning project, has been developed and will be presented herein. The project has a threefold base: (1) research of atmosphere-ocean interaction with focus on (i) source processes in the atmosphere, (ii) energy transfer to the ocean and (iii) along-propagation growth of meteotsunami waves; (2) estimation of meteotsunami occurrence rates in past, present and future climate, and mapping of meteotsunami hazard; (3) construction of a meteotsunami warning system prototype, with the latter being the main objective of the project. Due to a great frequency of meteotsunamis and its complex bathymetry which varies from the shallow shelf in the north towards deep pits in the south, with a number of funnel-shaped bays and harbours substantially amplifying incoming tsunami-like waves, the Adriatic, northernmost of the Mediterranean seas, has been chosen as an ideal area for realization of the MESSI project and implementation of the warning system. This warning system will however be designed to allow for a wider applicability and easy-to-accomplish transfer to other endangered locations. The architecture of the warning system will integrate several components: (1) real-time measurements of key oceanographic and atmospheric parameters, (2) coupled atmospheric-ocean models run in real time (warning) mode, and (3) semi-automatic procedures and protocols for warning of civil protection, local authorities and public. The effectiveness of the warning system will be tested over the historic events.
Wenker, Koen; Bogaard, Thom
In order to reduce the societal risk associated with natural hazards novel technologies could help to advance in early warning systems. In our study we evaluate the use of multi-sensor technologies as possible early-warning systems for landslides and man-made structures, and the integration of the information in a simple Decision Support System (DSS). In this project, particular attention will be paid to some new possibilities available in the field of distributed monitoring systems of relevant parameters for landslide and man-made structures monitoring (such as large dams and bridges), and among them the distributed monitoring of temperature, strain and acoustic signals by FO cables. Fiber Optic measurements are becoming more and more popular. Fiber optic cables have been developed in the telecommunication business to send large amounts of information over large distances with the speed of light. Because of the commercial application, production costs are relatively low. Using fiber optics for measurements has several advantages. This novel technology is, for instance, immune to electromagnetic interference, appears stable, very accurate, and has the potential to measure several independent physical properties in a distributed manner. The high resolution spatial and temporal distributed information on e.g. temperature or strain (or both) make fiber optics an interesting measurement technique. Several applications have been developed in both engineering as science and the possibilities seem numerous. We will present a thorough literature review that was done to assess the applicability and limitations of FO cable technology. This review was focused but not limited to application in landslide research. Several examples of current practices will be shown, also from outside the natural hazard practice and possible application will be discussed.
Rivero-Martín, M J; Prieto-Martínez, S; García-Solano, M; Montilla-Pérez, M; Tena-Martín, E; Ballesteros-García, M M
The aims of this study were to introduce a paediatric early warning score (PEWS) into our daily clinical practice, as well as to evaluate its ability to detect clinical deterioration in children admitted, and to train nursing staff to communicate the information and response effectively. An analysis was performed on the implementation of PEWS in the electronic health records of children (0-15 years) in our paediatric ward from February 2014 to September 2014. The maximum score was 6. Nursing staff reviewed scores >2, and if >3 medical and nursing staff reviewed it. Monitoring indicators: % of admissions with scoring; % of complete data capture; % of scores >3; % of scores >3 reviewed by medical staff, % of changes in treatment due to the warning system, and number of patients who needed Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admission, or died without an increased warning score. The data were collected from all patients (931) admitted. The scale was measured 7,917 times, with 78.8% of them with complete data capture. Very few (1.9%) showed scores >3, and 14% of them with changes in clinical management (intensifying treatment or new diagnostic tests). One patient (scored 2) required PICU admission. There were no deaths. Parents or nursing staff concern was registered in 80% of cases. PEWS are useful to provide a standardised assessment of clinical status in the inpatient setting, using a unique scale and implementing data capture. Because of the lack of severe complications requiring PICU admission and deaths, we will have to use other data to evaluate these scales. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
Hoffmann, T. L.; Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Weber, B.; Becker, J.; Heinloo, A.; Hoffmann, M.
For several years GFZ Potsdam is operating a global earthquake monitoring system. Since the beginning of 2008, this system is also used as an experimental seismic background data center for two different regional Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS), the IOTWS (Indian Ocean) and the interim NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic and Mediterranean). The SeisComP3 (SC3) software, developed within the GITEWS (German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System) project, capable to acquire, archive and process real-time data feeds, was extended for export and import of individual processing results within the two clusters of connected SC3 systems. Therefore not only real-time waveform data are routed to the attached warning centers through GFZ but also processing results. While the current experimental NEAMTWS cluster consists of SC3 systems in six designated national warning centers in Europe, the IOTWS cluster presently includes seven centers, with another three likely to join in 2009/10. For NEAMTWS purposes, the GFZ virtual real-time seismic network (GEOFON Extended Virtual Network -GEVN) in Europe was substantially extended by adding many stations from Western European countries optimizing the station distribution. In parallel to the data collection over the Internet, a GFZ VSAT hub for secured data collection of the EuroMED GEOFON and NEAMTWS backbone network stations became operational and first data links were established through this backbone. For the Southeast Asia region, a VSAT hub has been established in Jakarta already in 2006, with some other partner networks connecting to this backbone via the Internet. Since its establishment, the experimental system has had the opportunity to prove its performance in a number of relevant earthquakes. Reliable solutions derived from a minimum of 25 stations were very promising in terms of speed. For important events, automatic alerts were released and disseminated by emails and SMS. Manually verified solutions are added as soon as they become
Wogalter, Michael S; Laughery, Kenneth R
A scenario of an automotive accident caused by tire failure is given followed by a human factors analysis of the information available to consumers on tire aging. Consumers have not been told that the age of the tire is a safety concern. It is not easy to decode the date of manufacture on tires. More publicity and prominent warnings are needed to communicate the dangers of older tires. Also, better ways to present the date of manufacture so that consumers can more easily and accurately assess tire age are needed.
Full Text Available The collision avoidance warning system is an emerging technology designed to assist drivers in avoiding red-light running (RLR collisions at intersections. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of auditory warning information on collision avoidance behaviors in the RLR pre-crash scenarios and further to examine the casual relationships among the relevant factors. A driving-simulator-based experiment was designed and conducted with 50 participants. The data from the experiments were analyzed by approaches of ANOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM. The collisions avoidance related variables were measured in terms of brake reaction time (BRT, maximum deceleration and lane deviation in this study. It was found that the collision avoidance warning system can result in smaller collision rates compared to the without-warning condition and lead to shorter reaction times, larger maximum deceleration and less lane deviation. Furthermore, the SEM analysis illustrate that the audio warning information in fact has both direct and indirect effect on occurrence of collisions, and the indirect effect plays a more important role on collision avoidance than the direct effect. Essentially, the auditory warning information can assist drivers in detecting the RLR vehicles in a timely manner, thus providing drivers more adequate time and space to decelerate to avoid collisions with the conflicting vehicles.
Dąbrowski, R.; Dombrowski, H.; Kessler, P.; Röttger, A.; Neumaier, S.
Short-term pronounced increases of the ambient dose equivalent rate, due to rainfall are a well-known phenomenon. Increases in the same order of magnitude or even below may also be caused by a nuclear or radiological event, i.e. by artificial radiation. Hence, it is important to be able to identify natural rain events in dosimetric early warning networks and to distinguish them from radiological events. Novel spectrometric systems based on scintillators may be used to differentiate between the two scenarios, because the measured gamma spectra provide significant nuclide-specific information. This paper describes three simple, automatic methods to check whether an dot H*(10) increase is caused by a rain event or by artificial radiation. These methods were applied to measurements of three spectrometric systems based on CeBr3, LaBr3 and SrI2 scintillation crystals, investigated and tested for their practicability at a free-field reference site of PTB.
Full Text Available Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC, which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research
Samadzadegan, F.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Saber, M.; Ghazi khanlou, H. J.
Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research proposed an
Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip
U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).
Shang, Ce; Weaver, Scott R; Zahra, Nahleen; Huang, Jidong; Cheng, Kai-Wen; Chaloupka, Frank J
(1) Background: Several brands of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) carry voluntary health warning messages. This study examined how potential exposure to ENDS magazine ads with these voluntary health warnings were associated with the perceived harmfulness of ENDS. (2) Methods: Risk perception measures and self-reported exposure to ENDS ads were obtained from the 2014 Georgia State University (GSU) Tobacco Products and Risk Perceptions Survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. We examined the association between potential exposure to magazine ads with warnings and the perceived harms of ENDS relative to cigarettes, using binary logistic regressions and controlling for general ENDS ad exposure and socio-demographic characteristics. (3) Results: Potential exposure to ENDS magazine ads with warnings was associated with a lower probability of considering ENDS to be more or equally harmful compared to cigarettes, particularly among non-smokers (OR = 0.16; 95% CI: 0.04-0.77). In addition, ad exposure, ENDS use history, race/ethnicity, gender, education, and income were also associated with harm perceptions. (4) Conclusions: This study did not find evidence that magazine ads with warnings increased misperceptions that ENDS are equally or more harmful than cigarettes. With more ENDS advertisements carrying warnings, more research is needed to determine how the warnings in advertisements convey relative harm information to consumers and the public.
Ruscio, Daniele; Ciceri, Maria Rita; Biassoni, Federica
Brake Reaction Time (BRT) is an important parameter for road safety. Previous research has shown that drivers' expectations can impact RT when facing hazardous situations, but driving with advanced driver assistance systems, can change the way BRT are considered. The interaction with a collision warning system can help faster more efficient responses, but at the same time can require a monitoring task and evaluation process that may lead to automation complacency. The aims of the present study are to test in a real-life setting whether automation compliancy can be generated by a collision warning system and what component of expectancy can impact the different tasks involved in an assisted BRT process. More specifically four component of expectancy were investigated: presence/absence of anticipatory information, previous direct experience, reliability of the device, and predictability of the hazard determined by repeated use of the warning system. Results supply indication on perception time and mental elaboration of the collision warning system alerts. In particular reliable warning quickened the decision making process, misleading warnings generated automation complacency slowing visual search for hazard detection, lack of directed experienced slowed the overall response while unexpected failure of the device lead to inattentional blindness and potential pseudo-accidents with surprise obstacle intrusion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.
The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.
Gurnain Pasricha; Tom Roberts; Ian Christensen; Brad Howell
This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use...
Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T dur . T dur can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus (μ) while T dur may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or μ. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/μ, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T dur is proportional L and greater Mo/μ. Because Mo/μ is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 4–5 min after an earthquake
Mazet-Roux, G.; Bossu, R; Tome, M.; Giovambattista, R. Di
Every year a few damaging earthquakes occur in the European-Mediterranean region. It is therefore indispensable to operate a real-time warning system in order to provide rapidly reliable estimates of the location, depth and magnitude of these seismic events. In order to provide this information in a timely manner both to the scientific community and to the European and national authorities dealing with natural hazards and relief organisation, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) has federated a network of seismic networks exchanging their data in quasi real-time. Today, thanks to the Internet, the EMSC receives real-time information about earthquakes from about thirty seismological institutes. As soon as data reach the EMSC, they are displayed on the EMSC Web pages (www.emsc-csem.org). A seismic alert is generated for any potentially damaging earthquake in the European-Mediterranean region and disseminated within one hour following its occurrence. Potentially damaging earthquakes are defined as seismic events of magnitude 5 or above in the European-Mediterranean region. The utility of this EMSC service is clearly demonstrated by its following among the public: EMSC e-mail dissemination list has been subscribed by about 300 institutions (ECHO, NGO, civil defence services, seismological institutes) or individuals and the rate of internet connections to EMSC web site dramatically increase following an alert. The aim of this presentation is to give a complete technical description of the EMSC warning system. We will also take this opportunity to thank each of the contributing institutions for their support and efforts to enhance the system performances. (authors)
Li, N.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhou, X. T.; Leng, J.; Liang, Z.; Zheng, C.; Sun, X. F.
Though the brief introduction of the completed structural health and safety monitoring warning systems for Shenzhen-Hongkong western corridor Shenzhen bay highway bridge (SZBHMS), the self-developed system frame, hardware and software scheme of this practical research project are systematically discussed in this paper. The data acquisition and transmission hardware and the basic software based on the NI (National Instruments) Company virtual instruments technology were selected in this system, which adopted GPS time service receiver technology and so on. The objectives are to establish the structural safety monitoring and status evaluation system to monitor the structural responses and working conditions in real time and to analyze the structural working statue using information obtained from the measured data. It will be also provided the scientific decision-making bases for the bridge management and maintenance. Potential technical approaches to the structural safety warning systems, status identification and evaluation method are presented. The result indicated that the performance of the system has achieved the desired objectives, ensure the longterm high reliability, real time concurrence and advanced technology of SZBHMS. The innovate achievement which is the first time to implement in domestic, provide the reference for long-span bridge structural health and safety monitoring warning systems design.
Ali Cahyadi Achmad
Full Text Available One of disasters caused by volcanic activity of Mount Merapi is secondary disaster. The disaster usually occurs after eruption and this volcanic activity produces volcanic and pyroclastic material deposit around the top of the mountain as a result of previous eruption. This material might collapse downward in the form of debris flow as it is affected by natural event such as high intensity rainfall. Therefore, a research is needed to analyze whether existing forecasting and early warning system are capable to provide information for the people living in hazardous area before the debris flood occur. This research was carried out using field survey, observation and interview method. Data analysis used qualitative descriptive method by making description of actual condition of the researched location general condition and qualitative analysis of telemetry system installed on Mount Merapi. The qualitative analysis of telemetry system covers network, hardware, software, power supply, security system, operation and maintenance, also human resources. Research analysis used primary and secondary data. Research results revealed that mean rainfall intensity above of 60 mm/hour might trigger debris flood. Early warning should be given at the rainfall intensity level of 50-55 mm/hour, and debris flood time travel from the upstream to the observed location in Pulowatu Village is 45 minute. Based on the analysis of the present forecasting and early warning system, it is known that some of the equipment is not well functioned, so that debris flow cannot be predicted and detected. This is caused by the lack of human resource quality of the officers in operating and maintaining the equipment. Concerning that matter, it is necessary to conduct some improvement to achieve better forecasting and early warning system in order to give information regarding occurrence of debris flow.
Full Text Available Rapidly expanding urban areas in Central Asia are increasingly vulnerable to seismic risk; but at present, no earthquake early warning (EEW systems exist in the region despite their successful implementation in other earthquake-prone areas. Such systems aim to provide short (seconds to tens of seconds warnings of impending disaster, enabling the first risk mitigation and damage control steps to be taken. This study presents the feasibility of a large scale cross-border regional system for Central Asian countries. Genetic algorithms are used to design efficient EEW networks, computing optimal station locations and trigger thresholds in recorded ground acceleration. Installation of such systems within 3 years aims to both reducing the endemic lack of strong motion data in Central Asia that is limiting the possibility of improving seismic hazard assessment, and at providing the first regional earthquake early warning system in the area.
Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific
Pulwarty, R. S.
The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.
Full Text Available The background of this study was the lack of awareness Indonesian society toward syariah life insurance andit needed to be investigated whether there was a problem on its financial instruments by using Early WarningSystem ratio. The purpose of this study was to prove the influence of Early Warning System ratio for contributionrevenue growth syariah life insurance companies in Indonesia period 2010-2013. The sampling techniqueused was purposive sampling. Samples that acquired the criteria were 10 companies. Data were analyzedusing multiple linear regression. The ratio of the Early Warning System consisted of 6 solvencies: solvencymargin ratio, change in surplus ratio, return on investment ratio, liquidity ratio, agent’s balance to surplusratio and technical ratio. The result of this study was Early Warning System ratio influenced simultaneouslyon contribution revenue growth ratio and partial contribution of technical ratio influenced positively tocontribution revenue growth ratio. So, Early Warning System ratio could be applied in order to increasecontribution revenue growth of life insurance syariah units companies.
... deviation alerting system. 121.360 Section 121.360 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... Equipment Requirements § 121.360 Ground proximity warning-glide slope deviation alerting system. (a) No... system that meets the performance and environmental standards of TSO-C92 (available from the FAA, 800...
Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed
Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Christianson, Amy; Becker, Julia; Keys, Harry
PurposeThis paper examines the unique challenges to volcanic risk management associated with having a ski area on an active volcano. Using a series of simulated eruption/lahar events at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, as a context, a model of risk management that integrates warning system design and technology, risk perceptions and the human response is explored. Principal resultsDespite increases in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk, a persistent minority of the public continued to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take during a warning and failed to respond effectively. A relationship between level of staff competence and correct public response allowed the level of public response to be used to identify residual risk and additional staff training needs. The quality of staff awareness, action and decision-making has emerged as a critical factor, from detailed staff and public interviews and from exercise observations. Staff actions are especially important for mobilising correct public response at Ruapehu ski areas due to the transient nature of the visitor population. Introduction of education material and staff training strategies that included the development of emergency decision-making competencies improved knowledge of correct actions, and increased the proportion of people moving out of harm's way during blind tests. Major conclusionsWarning effectiveness is a function of more than good hazard knowledge and the generation and notification of an early warning message. For warning systems to be effective, these factors must be complemented by accurate knowledge of risk and risk management actions. By combining the Ruapehu findings with those of other warning system studies in New Zealand, and internationally, a practical five-step model for effective early warning systems is discussed. These steps must be based upon sound and
for real-time processing of BCI devices. All of these methods are evaluated through two sets of recorded brain signals which were recorded by g.TEC CO. as an external source and recorded brain signals during our car driving simulator experiments. The final discussion is about how the presence of an SSVEP based warning system could affect drivers' performances which is defined by their reaction distance and Time to Collision (TTC). Three different scenarios with and without warning LEDs were planned to measure the subjects' normal driving behavior and their performance while they use a warning system during their driving task. Finally, warning scenarios are divided into short and long warning periods without and with informing the subjects, respectively. The long warning period scenario attempts to determine the level of drivers' distraction or vigilance during driving. The good outcome of warning scenarios can bridge between vehicle safety studies and online BCI system design research. The preliminary results show some promise of the developed methods for in-vehicle safety systems. However, for any decisive conclusion that considers using a BCI system as a helpful in-vehicle assistive device requires far deeper scrutinizing.
Full Text Available A traditional off-line screw-down monitoring system performs not well on real-time signal analysis or process, which cannot provide simultaneous fault pre-warning either. A diagnostic monitoring system as well as a remotely accessible graphic user interface is presented in this paper. The main objective of this work is to develop an online and available technique for monitoring the kinetic, hydrodynamic and electrical parameters of the rolling mill screw-down device, and analyze these figures to support online fault pre-warning. A series of transducers are installed in suitable locations to measure parameters decried above including the vibration acceleration of a rolling mill stand, the rolling force of a screw-down device, the stroke of a hydraulic cylinder, the system source pressure, the in-cylinder stress and the output value of an electro-hydraulic servo valve. An industrial personal computer picks up the information transformed by an extra high-speed data acquisition board embedded inside, processes the signals via a software designed by means of Laborary Virtual Instrument Engineering Workbench (LabVIEW and indicates fault conditions through the graphic user interface. Besides, the data of the overall system can be published over the Internet using LabVIEW Web Server capabilities. The results of experiments suggest that the system works well on real-time data acquisition and online fault pre- warning. The statistics saved contributes to the research of vibration performance and malfunction analysis of a rolling mill.
Jiang, Chilong; Zou, Dehua; Long, Chenhai; Yang, Miao; Zhang, Zhanlong; Mei, Daojun
Live-line working is an essential part in the operations in an electric power system. Live-line workers are required to wear shielding clothing. Shielding clothing, however, acts as a closed environment for the human body. Working in a closed environment for a long time can change the physiological responses of the body and even endanger personal safety. According to the typical conditions of live-line working, this study synthesizes environmental factors related to shielding clothing and the physiological factors of the body to establish the heart rate variability index RMSSD and the comprehensive security warning index SWI. On the basis of both indices, this paper proposes a security warning method and system for the safety live-line workers. The system can monitor the real-time status of workers during live-line working to provide security warning and facilitate the effective safety supervision by the live operation center during actual live-line working.
Due to the huge amount of recorded data, an automatic procedure was developed and used to test different methods to rapidly evaluate earthquake magnitude from the first seconds of the P wave. In order to test all the algorithms involved in detection and rapid earthquake magnitude estimation, several tests were performed, in order to avoid false alarms. A special detection algorithm was developed, that is based on the classical STA/LTA algorithm and tuned for early warning purpose. A method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4 seconds from detection of P wave in the epicenter is proposed. The method was tested on al recorded data, and the magnitude error determination is acceptable taking into account that it is computed from only 3 stations in a very short time interval. (author)
Bhansali, Archita H; Sangani, Darshan S; Mhatre, Shivani K; Sansgiry, Sujit S
To compare three over-the-counter (OTC) Drug Facts panel versions for information processing optimization among college students. University of Houston students (N = 210) participated in a cross-sectional survey from January to May 2010. A current FDA label was compared to two experimental labels developed using the theory of CHREST to test information processing by re-positioning the warning information within the Drug Facts panel. Congruency was defined as placing like information together. Information processing was evaluated using the OTC medication Label Evaluation Process Model (LEPM): label comprehension, ease-of-use, attitude toward the product, product evaluation, and purchase intention. Experimental label with chunked congruent information (uses-directions-other information-warnings) was rated significantly higher than the current FDA label and had the best average scores among the LEPM information processing variables. If replications uphold these findings, the FDA label design might be revised to improve information processing.
Full Text Available Though we are in urgent need of environmental warnings to slow environmental deterioration, currently, there is no internationally concise method for environmental warnings. In addition, the existing approaches do not combine the three aspects of ecology, resources, and environment. At the same time, the three elements of the environment (air, water, and soil are separated in most environmental warning systems. Thus, the method this paper gives is an innovative attempt and aims to make environmental assessment more practical. This paper establishes the index system of an environmental early warning based on the Driving–Pressure–State–Influence–Response (DPSIR model. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method was used to determine the weights. Next, single and integrated index methods further assess the environmental warning state, in which the weighted summation method is used to summarize the data and results. The case of Tianjin is used to confirm the applicability of this method. In conclusion, the method in this paper is more well-behaved and, therefore, more suitable to assist cities in their environmental assessment.
Homberg, M.J.C. van den; Posthumus, A.L.
Christian Aid, Cordaid, PVGS and Practical Action established a community-based early warning system for cross-border floods between India and Nepal in 45 Indian villages. The project will scale to 95 villages early 2016. The number of stakeholders and organizational levels of this system with four
Smet, S.; Van der Meer, K.
In order to prevent nuclear proliferation, nuclear fuels and other strategic materials have to be responsibly managed. Non-proliferation aims to counteract the uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear materials worldwide. SCK-CEN is developing an innovative nuclear warning system based on political and economic indicators. Such a system should allow the early detection of the development of a nuclear weapons programme.
Cools, J.; Vanderkimpen, P.; El Afandi, G.; Abdelkhalek, A.; Fockedey, S.; El Sammany, M.; Abdallah, G.; El Bihery, M.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.
An early warning system (EWS) for flash floods has been developed for part of the Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data (field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images) complemented with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge. Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1) an inventory of past significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2) the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall events and (3) transmission and infiltration losses and (4) thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr (1979-2010), only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.
Full Text Available Flooding is one of the major disasters occurring in various parts of the world. The system for real-time monitoring ofwater conditions: water level; flow; and precipitation level, was developed to be employed in monitoring flood in Nakhon SiThammarat, a southern province in Thailand. The two main objectives of the developed system is to serve 1 as informationchannel for flooding between the involved authorities and experts to enhance their responsibilities and collaboration and2 as a web based information source for the public, responding to their need for information on water condition and flooding.The developed system is composed of three major components: sensor network, processing/transmission unit, and database/application server. These real-time data of water condition can be monitored remotely by utilizing wireless sensors networkthat utilizes the mobile General Packet Radio Service (GPRS communication in order to transmit measured data to theapplication server. We implemented a so-called VirtualCOM, a middleware that enables application server to communicatewith the remote sensors connected to a GPRS data unit (GDU. With VirtualCOM, a GDU behaves as if it is a cable directlyconnected the remote sensors to the application server. The application server is a web-based system implemented usingPHP and JAVA as the web application and MySQL as its relational database. Users can view real-time water conditionas well as the forecasting of the water condition directly from the web via web browser or via WAP. The developed systemhas demonstrated the applicability of today’s sensors in wirelessly monitor real-time water conditions.
Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.
Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.
Haener, Rainer; Waechter, Joachim; Hammitzsch, Martin
The project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme focuses on real-time intelligent information management in earth management. The addressed challenges include the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration of existing resources, components and systems. Key challenge for TRIDEC is establishing a network of independent systems, cooperatively interacting as a collective in a system-of-systems (SoS). For this purpose TRIDEC adopts enhancements of service-oriented architecture (SOA) principles in terms of an event-driven architecture (EDA) design (SOA 2.0). In this way TRIDEC establishes large-scale concurrent and intelligent information management of a manifold of crisis types by focusing on the integration of autonomous, task-oriented and geographically distributed systems. To this end TRIDEC adapts both ways SOA 2.0 offers: orchestration and choreography. In orchestration, a central knowledge-based processing framework takes control over the involved services and coordinates their execution. Choreography on the other hand avoids central coordination. Rather, each system involved in the SoS follows a global scenario without a single point of control but specifically defined (enacted, agreed upon) trigger conditions. More than orchestration choreography allows collaborative business processes of various heterogeneous sub-systems (e.g. cooperative decision making) by concurrent Complex Event Processing (CEP) and asynchronous communication. These types of interaction adapt the concept of decoupled relationships between information producers (e.g. sensors and sensor systems) and information consumers (e.g. warning systems and warning dissemination systems). Asynchronous communication is useful if a participant wants to trigger specific actions by delegating the responsibility (separation of concerns
Tien, Yu-Chuan; Tung, Ching-Ping; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Lin, Chia-Yu
In the last twenty years, Hsinchu, a county of Taiwan, has experienced a tremendous growth in water demand due to the development of Hsinchu Science Park. In order to fulfill the water demand, the government has built the new reservoir, Baoshan second reservoir. However, short term droughts still happen. One of the reasons is that the water level of the reservoirs in Hsinchu cannot be reasonably forecasted, which sometimes even underestimates the severity of drought. The purpose of this study is to build a drought early warning system that projects the water levels of two important reservoirs, Baoshan and Baoshan second reservoir, and also the spatial distribution of water shortagewith the lead time of three months. Furthermore, this study also attempts to assist the government to improve water resources management. Hence, a system dynamics model of Touchien River, which is the most important river for public water supply in Hsinchu, is developed. The model consists of several important subsystems, including two reservoirs, water treatment plants and agricultural irrigation districts. Using the upstream flow generated by seasonal weather forecasting data, the model is able to simulate the storage of the two reservoirs and the distribution of water shortage. Moreover, the model can also provide the information under certain emergency scenarios, such as the accident or failure of a water treatment plant. At last, the performance of the proposed method and the original water resource management method that the government used were also compared. Keyword: Water Resource Management, Hydrology, Seasonal Climate Forecast, Reservoir, Early Warning, Drought
Amrita University's landslide monitoring and early warning system using Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) consists of heterogeneous sensors like rain gauge, moisture sensor, piezometer, geophone, inclinometer, tilt meter etc. The information from the sensors are accurate and limited to that point. In order to monitor a large area, ERT can be used in conjunction with WSN technology. To accomplish the feasibility of ERT in landslide early warning along with WSN technology, we have conducted experiments in Amrita's landslide laboratory setup. The experiment was aimed to simulate landslide, and monitor the changes happening in the soil using moisture sensor and ERT. Simulating moisture values from resistivity measurements to a greater accuracy can help in landslide monitoring for large areas. For accomplishing the same we have adapted two mathematical approaches, 1) Regression analysis between resistivity measurements and actual moisture values from moisture sensor, and 2) Using Waxman Smith model to simulate moisture values from resistivity measurements. The simulated moisture values from Waxman Smith model is compared with the actual moisture values and the Mean Square Error (MSE) is found to be 46.33. Regression curve is drawn for the resistivity vs simulated moisture values from Waxman model, and it is compared with the regression curve of actual model, which is shown in figure-1. From figure-1, it is clear that there the regression curve from actual moisture values and the regression curve from simulated moisture values, follow the similar pattern and there is a small difference between them. Moisture values can be simulated to a greater accuracy using actual regression equation, but the limitation is that, regression curves will differ for different sites and different soils. Regression equation from actual moisture values can be used, if we have conducted experiment in the laboratory for a particular soil sample, otherwise with the knowledge of soil properties
Full Text Available With the rapid increase in computational power of mobile devices the amount of ambient intelligence-based smart environment systems has increased greatly in recent years. A proposition of such a solution is described in this paper, namely real time monitoring of an electrocardiogram (ECG signal during everyday activities for identification of life threatening situations. The paper, being both research and review, describes previous work of the authors, current state of the art in the context of the authors’ work and the proposed aforementioned system. Although parts of the solution were described in earlier publications of the authors, the whole concept is presented completely for the first time along with the prototype implementation on mobile device—a Windows 8 tablet with Modern UI. The system has three main purposes. The first goal is the detection of sudden rapid cardiac malfunctions and informing the people in the patient’s surroundings, family and friends and the nearest emergency station about the deteriorating health of the monitored person. The second goal is a monitoring of ECG signals under non-clinical conditions to detect anomalies that are typically not found during diagnostic tests. The third goal is to register and analyze repeatable, long-term disturbances in the regular signal and finding their patterns.
Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve
U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.
Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui
The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable. PMID:28257122
... (TSO)-C151c, Terrain Awareness and Warning System (TAWS) ACTION: Notice of availability and request for... second draft of Technical Standard Order (TSO)- C151c, Terrain Awareness and Warning System. Comments.... b. Addition of Localizer Performance with Vertical guidance (LPV) and Global Navigation Satellite...
Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.
By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal
Gravirov, V.V.; Kislov, K.V.
There are two methods to earthquake early warning system: the method based on a network of seismic stations and the single-sensor method. Both have advantages and drawbacks. The current systems rely on high density seismic networks. Attempts at implementing techniques based on the single-station principle encounter difficulties in the identification of earthquake in noise. The noise may be very diverse, from stationary to impulsive. It seems a promising line of research to develop hybrid warning systems with single-sensors being incorporated in the overall early warning network. This will permit using all advantages and will help reduce the radius of the hazardous zone where no earthquake warning can be produced. The main problems are highlighted and the solutions of these are discussed. The system is implemented to include three detection processes in parallel. The first is based on the study of the co-occurrence matrix of the signal wavelet transform. The second consists in using the method of a change point in a random process and signal detection in a moving time window. The third uses artificial neural networks. Further, applying a decision rule out the final earthquake detection is carried out and estimate its reliability. (author)
Lestano, [No Value; Jacobs, Jan; Kuper, Gerard H.
Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of
Groot, J.F. de; Damen, N.; Loos, E. de; Steeg, L. van de; Rosias, P.; Bruijn, M.; Goorhuis, J.; Wagner, C.
Background: Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS) are increasingly being used for early identification and management of clinical deterioration in paediatric patients. A PEWS system includes scores, cut-off points and appropriate early intervention. In 2011, The Dutch Ministry of Health advised
F.M. Hoffman; R.T. Mills; J. Kumar; S.S. Vulli; W.W. Hargrove
We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster...
Gattermann, K.; Hefftler, C.
The Early Warning System gives national parliaments the right to intervene in European Union policy-making. This article investigates their incentives to submit reasoned opinions. It analyses the reactions of 40 parliamentary chambers to 411 draft legislative acts between 1 January 2010 and 31
Knowles, Jared E.
The state of Wisconsin has one of the highest four year graduation rates in the nation, but deep disparities among student subgroups remain. To address this the state has created the Wisconsin Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS), a predictive model of student dropout risk for students in grades six through nine. The Wisconsin DEWS is in use…
Axelsen, Jørgen Aagaard; Munk, Lisa; Ørum, Jens Erik
This paper is dealing with the results of a knowledge synthesis on monitoring, warning and decision systems made for the Danish environmental protection agency during 2011. The knowledge synthesis document is a volume of about 160 pages written in Danish and the present paper is the English versi...
Fathani, Teuku Faisal; Karnawati, Dwikorita; Wilopo, Wahyu
Landslides are one of the most widespread and commonly occurring natural hazards. In regions of high vulnerability, these complex hazards can cause significant negative social and economic impacts. Considering the worldwide susceptibility to landslides, it is necessary to establish a standard for early warning systems specific to landslide disaster risk reduction. This standard would provide guidance in conducting landslide detection, prediction, interpretation, and response...
Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Esbrí, M. Á.
The command and control unit's graphical user interface (GUI) is a central part of early warning systems (EWS) for man-made and natural hazards. The GUI combines and concentrates the relevant information of the system and offers it to human operators. It has to support operators successfully performing their tasks in complex workflows. Most notably in critical situations when operators make important decisions in a limited amount of time, the command and control unit's GUI has to work reliably and stably, providing the relevant information and functionality with the required quality and in time. The design of the GUI application is essential in the development of any EWS to manage hazards effectively. The design and development of such GUI is performed repeatedly for each EWS by various software architects and developers. Implementations differ based on their application in different domains. But similarities designing and equal approaches implementing GUIs of EWS are not quite harmonized enough with related activities and do not exploit possible synergy effects. Thus, the GUI's implementation of an EWS for tsunamis is successively introduced, providing a generic approach to be applied in each EWS for man-made and natural hazards.
Full Text Available The command and control unit's graphical user interface (GUI is a central part of early warning systems (EWS for man-made and natural hazards. The GUI combines and concentrates the relevant information of the system and offers it to human operators. It has to support operators successfully performing their tasks in complex workflows. Most notably in critical situations when operators make important decisions in a limited amount of time, the command and control unit's GUI has to work reliably and stably, providing the relevant information and functionality with the required quality and in time.
The design of the GUI application is essential in the development of any EWS to manage hazards effectively. The design and development of such GUI is performed repeatedly for each EWS by various software architects and developers. Implementations differ based on their application in different domains. But similarities designing and equal approaches implementing GUIs of EWS are not quite harmonized enough with related activities and do not exploit possible synergy effects. Thus, the GUI's implementation of an EWS for tsunamis is successively introduced, providing a generic approach to be applied in each EWS for man-made and natural hazards.
Indrasari, W.; Iswanto, B. H.; Andayani, M.
A flood disaster provides considerable losses to the people who live around the river. To mitigate losses of material due to flood disaster required an early warning system of flood disaster. For that reason, it necessary to design a system that provide alert to the people prior the flood disaster. And this paper describes development of a device for early detection system of flood disasters. This device consists of two ultrasonic sensors as a water level detector, and a water flow sensor as a water flow velocity sensor. The wireless technology and GSM is used as an information medium. The system is designed based on water level conditions in the Katulampa Dam, Bogor. Characterization of water level detector showed that the device effectively works in a range of water level of 14-250 cm, with a maximum relative error of 4.3%. Meanwhile the wireless works properly as far as 75 m, and the SMS transmission time is 8.20 second.
Ambarish G. Mohapatra
Full Text Available Collision Avoidance System solves many problems caused by traffic congestion worldwide and a synergy of new information technologies for simulation, real-time control and communications networks. The above system is characterized as an intelligent vehicle system. Traffic congestion has been increasing world-wide as a result of increased motorization, urbanization, population growth and changes in population density. Congestion reduces utilization of the transportation infrastructure and increases travel time, air pollution, fuel consumption and most importantly traffic accidents. The main objective of this work is to develop a machine vision system for lane departure detection and warning to measure the lane related parameters such as heading angle, lateral deviation, yaw rate and sideslip angle from the road scene image using standard image processing technique that can be used for automation of steering a motor vehicle. The exact position of the steering wheel can be monitored using a steering wheel sensor. This core part of this work is based on Hough transformation based edge detection technique for the detection of lane departure parameters. The prototype designed for this work has been tested in a running vehicle for the monitoring of real-time lane related parameters.
Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana
On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI and IPMA. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room and deployed at IPMA has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC and for the Portuguese NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. Secondly, the feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering ICG/NEAMTWS standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions beyond ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes for hypothetical tsunami-related crisis situations in the context of
Forward Collision Warning (FCW) can be effective in directing driver attention towards a conflict and thereby aid in preventing or mitigating collisions. FCW systems aiming at pedestrian protection have been introduced onto the market, yet an assessment of their safety benefits depends on the accurate modeling of driver reactions when the system is activated. This study contributes by quantifying brake reaction time and brake behavior (deceleration levels and jerk) to compare the effectiveness of an audio-visual warning only, an added haptic brake pulse warning, and an added Head-Up Display in reducing the frequency of collisions with pedestrians. Further, this study provides a detailed data set suited for the design of assessment methods for car-to-pedestrian FCW systems. Brake response characteristics were measured for heavily distracted drivers who were subjected to a single FCW event in a high-fidelity driving simulator. The drivers maintained a self-regulated speed of 30km/h in an urban area, with gaze direction diverted from the forward roadway by a secondary task. Collision rates and brake reaction times differed significantly across FCW settings. Brake pulse warnings resulted in the lowest number of collisions and the shortest brake reaction times (mean 0.8s, SD 0.29s). Brake jerk and deceleration were independent of warning type. Ninety percent of drivers exceeded a maximum deceleration of 3.6m/s 2 and a jerk of 5.3m/s 3 . Brake pulse warning was the most effective FCW interface for preventing collisions. In addition, this study presents the data required for driver modeling for car-to-pedestrian FCW similar to Euro NCAP's 2015 car-to-car FCW assessment. Practical applications: Vehicle manufacturers should consider the introduction of brake pulse warnings to their FCW systems. Euro NCAP could introduce an assessment that quantifies the safety benefits of pedestrian FCW systems and thereby aid the proliferation of effective systems. Copyright © 2017
Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C
The U.S. New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) now tests for forward collision warning (FCW) and lane departure warning (LDW). The design of these warnings differs greatly between vehicles and can result in different real-world field performance in preventing or mitigating the effects of collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the expected number of crashes and injured drivers that could be prevented if all vehicles in the fleet were equipped with the FCW and LDW systems tested under the U.S. NCAP. To predict the potential crashes and serious injury that could be prevented, our approach was to computationally model the U.S. crash population. The models simulated all rear-end and single-vehicle road departure collisions that occurred in a nationally representative crash database (NASS-CDS). A sample of 478 single-vehicle crashes from NASS-CDS 2012 was the basis for 24,822 simulations for LDW. A sample of 1,042 rear-end collisions from NASS-CDS years 1997-2013 was the basis for 7,616 simulations for FCW. For each crash, 2 simulations were performed: (1) without the system present and (2) with the system present. Models of each production safety system were based on 54 model year 2010-2014 vehicles that were evaluated under the NCAP confirmation procedure for LDW and/or FCW. NCAP performed 40 LDW and 45 FCW tests of these vehicles. The design of the FCW systems had a dramatic impact on their potential to prevent crashes and injuries. Between 0 and 67% of crashes and 2 and 69% of moderately to fatally injured drivers in rear-end impacts could have been prevented if all vehicles were equipped with the FCW systems. Earlier warning times resulted in increased benefits. The largest effect on benefits, however, was the lower operating speed threshold of the systems. Systems that only operated at speeds above 20 mph were less than half as effective as those that operated above 5 mph with similar warning times. The production LDW systems could have prevented
Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng
Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.
Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.
Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of
Martin, Vincent; De Simone, Lorenzo; Lubroth, Juan; Ceccato, Pietro; Chevalier, Véronique
Recent disease epidemics and their spread around the world have illustrated the weaknesses of disease surveillance and early warning systems (EWS), both at national and international levels. These diseases continuously threaten the livestock sector on a worldwide basis, some with major public health impact. EWS and accurate forecasting of new outbreaks of epidemic livestock diseases that may also affect wildlife, and the capacity for spread of such diseases to new areas is an essential pre-requisite to their effective containment and control. Because both the geographical and seasonal distribution of many infectious diseases are linked to climate, the possibility of using climaterelated environmental factors as predictive indicators, in association with regular disease surveillance activities, has proven to be relevant when establishing EWS for climate-related diseases. This article reviews the growing importance of using geographical information systems in predictive veterinary epidemiology and its integration into EWS, with a special focus on Rift Valley fever. It shows that, once fully validated in a country or region, this technology appears highly valuable and could play an increasing role in forecasting major epidemics, providing lead time to national veterinary services to take action to mitigate the impact of the disease in a cost-effective manner.
Shengelia, L.; Kordzakhia, G.; Tvauri, G.; Tatishvili, M.; Mkurnalidze, I.
The peculiarities of the use of the information of the satellites for early warning of disasters of meteorological and hydrological origin for the territory of Georgia are investigated. The various characteristics of modern satellites and sensors installed are reviewed. The spheres of their implementation are indicated. The disasters that are typical of Georgia and to which the application of satellite information is effective are considered. (author)
van Gasteren, H.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.; Ginati, A.; Garofalo, G.
Every year billions of birds migrate from breeding areas to their wintering ranges, some travelling over 10,000 km. Stakeholders interested in aviation flight safety, spread of disease, conservation, education, urban planning, meteorology, wind turbines and bird migration ecology are interested in information on bird movements. Collecting and disseminating useful information about such mobile creatures exhibiting diverse behaviour is no simple task. However, ESA’s Integrated Application Promo...
Heun, Michael; Schlink, Torsten
The objective of this paper is to implement a prototype of a currency crisis model as part of an early warning system framework for Uganda. The financial systems of developing countries like Uganda are especially vulnerable and therefore robust instruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is based on the signals approach developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). The basic idea of the signals approach is to monitor several indicators that tend ...
Albinati, Julio; Meira Jr, Wagner; Pappa, Gisele Lobo
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease present in all Brazilian territory. Brazilian government, however, lacks an accurate early warning system to quickly predict future dengue outbreaks. Such system would help health authorities to plan their actions and to reduce the impact of the disease in the country. However, most attempts to model dengue fever use parametric models which enforce a specific expected behaviour and fail to capture the inherent complexity of dengue dynamics. Therefore, ...
Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are currently operating nationwide in Japan and are in beta-testing in California. Such a system detects an earthquake initiation using online signals from a seismic sensor network and broadcasts a warning of the predicted location and magnitude a few seconds to a minute or so before an earthquake hits a site. Such a system can be used synergistically with installed structural health monitoring (SHM) systems to enhance pre-event prognosis and post-event diagnosis of structural health. For pre-event prognosis, the EEW system information can be used to make probabilistic predictions of the anticipated damage to a structure using seismic loss estimation methodologies from performance-based earthquake engineering. These predictions can support decision-making regarding the activation of appropriate mitigation systems, such as stopping traffic from entering a bridge that has a predicted high probability of damage. Since the time between warning and arrival of the strong shaking is very short, probabilistic predictions must be rapidly calculated and the decision making automated for the mitigation actions. For post-event diagnosis, the SHM sensor data can be used in Bayesian updating of the probabilistic damage predictions with the EEW predictions as a prior. Appropriate Bayesian methods for SHM have been published. In this paper, we use pre-trained surrogate models (or emulators) based on machine learning methods to make fast damage and loss predictions that are then used in a cost-benefit decision framework for activation of a mitigation measure. A simple illustrative example of an infrastructure application is presented.
To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.
Tsuchiya, Ken'ichi; Kurosawa, Kenji; Akiba, Norimitsu; Kakuda, Hidetoshi; Imoto, Daisuke; Hirabayashi, Manato; Kuroki, Kenro
Counter-terrorisms against radiological and nuclear threat are significant issues toward Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games. In terms of cost benefit, it is not easy to build a warning system for nuclear detection to prevent a Dirty Bomb attack (dispersion of radioactive materials using a conventional explosive) or a Silent Source attack (hidden radioactive materials) from occurring. We propose a nuclear detection system using the installed secure cameras. We describe a method to estimate radiation dose from noise pattern in CCD images caused by radiation. Some dosimeters under neutron and gamma-ray irradiations (0.1mSv-100mSv) were taken in CCD video camera. We confirmed amount of noise in CCD images increased in radiation exposure. The radiation detection using CMOS in secure cameras or cell phones has been implemented. However, in this presentation, we propose a warning system including neutron detection to search shielded nuclear materials or radiation exposure devices using criticality. (author)
Harben, P.E.; Jarpe, S.P.; Hunter, S.; Johnston, C.A.
An aftershock warning system (AWS) is a real-time warning system that is deployed immediately after a large damaging earthquake in the epicentral region of the main shock. The primary purpose of such a system is to warn rescue teams and workers within damaged structures of imminent destructive shaking. The authors have examined the utility of such a system (1) by evaluating historical data, and (2) by developing and testing a prototype system during the 1992 Landers, California, aftershock sequence. Analyzing historical data is important in determining when and where damaging aftershocks are likely to occur and the probable usefulness of an AWS in a particular region. As part of this study, they analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of large (magnitude >5.0) aftershocks from earthquakes with magnitudes >6.0 that took place between 1942 and 1991 in California and Nevada. They found that one-quarter of these large aftershocks occurred from 2 days-2 months after the main event, nearly one-half occurred within the first two days of the main event, and greater than one-half occurred within 20 km of the main shock's epicenter. They also reviewed a case study of the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, which showed that an AWS could have given Mexico City a warning of ∼60 sec before the magnitude 7.6 aftershock that occurred 36 hr. after the main event. They deployed a four-station prototype AWS near Landers after a magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred on June 28, 1992. The aftershock data, collected from July 3-10, showed that the aftershocks in the vicinity of the four stations varied in magnitude from 3.0-4.4. Using a two-station detection criterion to minimize false alarms, this AWS reliably discriminated between smaller and larger aftershocks within 3 sec of the origin time of the events. This prototype could have provided 6 sec of warning to Palm Springs and 20 sec of warning to San Bernardino of aftershocks occurring in the main-shock epicentral region
Wu, Yih-Min; Kanamori, Hiroo
As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τ c and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV) could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τ c and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.
Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter ÃÂ„c and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from ÃÂ„c and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, ÃÂ„c and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.
Amatayakul, Margret K.
This paper examines the current status of “hospital information systems” with respect to the distinction between data systems and information systems. It is proposed that the systems currently existing are incomplete data dystems resulting in ineffective information systems.
An editorial in the February 2005 edition of the Magazine for European Research pointed to the very issue of responsibility: Improvements are always possible, of course, but the very nature of a 'natural disaster' is that while not entirely absolving humans of responsibility it surpasses our means to deal with and even understand the forces at work. But science can help enhance our knowledge. For if there is one subject that the Asian tragedy has highlighted, it is the importance of putting in place coordinated early warning systems for earthquakes and, in particular, the absence of effective monitoring of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. A concerted effort is now being made to develop a coordinated system of systems - bringing together organizations and initiatives that together can put in place an early warning system. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), set-up to monitor adherence to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, is one organization seen to contribute to a coordinated early warning system
Full Text Available Gigantic collapse of the Caldera wall of Mt. Bawakaraeng (2,830 m in March 2004 had supplied the sediment volume of 230 million to the most upper stream of Jeneberang River, which flowed down to the lower reach in the form of debris flow which is triggered by rainfall. The purpose of the research is to provide a system which is able to forecast the occurrence of debris flow, to identify the weak points along the river course, to identify the hazard areas and how to inform effectively and efficiently the warning messages to the inhabitants in the dangerous area by using the existing modern equipment combined with the traditional one. The standard rainfall which is used to judge the occurrence of debris flow was established by Yano method. It is based on the historical data of rainfall that trigger and not trigger to the occurrence of debris flow which is widely used in Japan so far. The hazard area was estimated by Two-Dimensional Simulation Model for debris flow, the debris flow arrival time at each point in the river were estimated by dividing their distance from reference point by debris flow velocity, where the check dam no. 7-1 in Manimbahoi was designated as reference point. The existing evacuation routes were checked by field survey, the strength and coverage of sound for kentongan and manual siren were examined using sound pressure level at the location of the existing monitoring post and the effectiveness of warning and evacuation were evaluated by comparing the warning and evacuation time against the debris flow arrival time. It was resulted that debris flow occurrence was triggered by short duration of high rainfall intensity, long duration of low rainfall intensity and the outbreak of natural dam which is formed by land slide or bank collapses. The hazard area of upper Jeneberang River are mostly located on the river terraces where the local inhabitants earn their living through cultivating the river terraces as paddy fields, dry
Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso
The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was
data sources , gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this...after each cognitive activity is captured in an android device which doubles as the server for a wireless body area network (WBAN). Thus the operator...MindWave Mobile (NeuroSky, Inc., USA) will be a possible solution. NeuroSky is a non-invasive EEG that connects the user to iOS and Android platforms
Sonck, Michel; Desmedt, Michel; Claes, Jurgen; Sombre, Lionel; Vandecasteele, Christian
The TELERAD network is primarily a measurement and early warning network. Its 212 stations constantly measure the overall radioactivity of the air, atmospheric dusts and river waters (Meuse, Sambre and Molse Nete) on the Belgian territory. These stations are linked to a centralised system that is automatically alerted in case an abnormal rise in radioactivity level is detected. The TELERAD network is supplemented by meteorological masts (10 meters and 30 meters height), which measure wind speed and direction, and by a set of mobile stations that can be deployed at any location on the territory. In the event of a nuclear accident, the discharge of radioactive substances into the atmosphere could lead to the launch of the nuclear emergency plan foreseen by the authorities. The TELERAD network would then play a crucial role in assessing the gravity of the accident, supporting decision making, optimising interventions and measures to be implemented to avert the effects of the accident and, subsequently, to remedy them, as well as informing the population on an ongoing basis. In normal circumstances, the TELERAD network measures the ambient dose rate due to external gamma radiation. This dose rate is essentially linked to the level of natural radioactivity. (author)
.... The use of multiple sensors and the Probabilistic Neural Networks alarm algorithm in the EWFD system resulted in improved performance compared to only an ionization or photoelectric smoke detector...
Maris, John Michael
An archival study was conducted to determine the influence of stall warning system performance on aircrew decision-making outcomes during airborne icing encounters. A Conservative Icing Response Bias (CIRB) model was developed to explain the historical variability in aircrew performance in the face of airframe icing. The model combined Bayes' Theorem with Signal Detection Theory (SDT) concepts to yield testable predictions that were evaluated using a Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) multivariate technique applied to two archives: the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident database, and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident databases, both covering the period January 1, 1988 to October 2, 2015. The CIRB model predicted that aircrew would experience more incorrect response outcomes in the face of missed stall warnings than with stall warning False Alarms. These predicted outcomes were observed at high significance levels in the final sample of 132 NASA/NTSB cases. The CIRB model had high sensitivity and specificity, and explained 71.5% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance of aircrew decision-making outcomes during the icing encounters. The reliability and validity metrics derived from this study suggest indicate that the findings are generalizable to the population of U.S. registered turbine-powered aircraft. These findings suggest that icing-related stall events could be reduced if the incidence of stall warning Misses could be minimized. Observed stall warning Misses stemmed from three principal causes: aerodynamic icing effects, which reduced the stall angle-of-attack (AoA) to below the stall warning calibration threshold; tail stalls, which are not monitored by contemporary protection systems; and icing-induced system issues (such as frozen pitot tubes), which compromised stall warning system effectiveness and airframe envelope protections. Each of these sources of missed stall warnings could be addressed by Aerodynamic Performance
Lee, J H; Song, C H; Kim, B C; Gu, M B
A multi-channel continuous toxicity monitoring system developed in our laboratory, based on two-stage mini-bioreactors, was successfully implemented in the form of computer-based data acquisition. The multi-channel system consists of a series of a two-stage minibioreactor systems connected by a fiber optic probe to a luminometer, and uses genetically engineered bioluminescent bacteria for the detection of the potential toxicity from the soluble chemicals. This system can be stably and continuously operated due to the separation of the culture reactor from the test reactor and accomplish easy and long-term monitoring without system shut down by abrupt inflows of severe polluting chemicals. Four different recombinant bioluminescent bacteria were used in different channels so that the modes of the samples toxicities can be reasonably identified and evaluated based upon the response signature of each channel. The bioluminescent signatures were delivered from four channels by switching one at once, while the data is automatically logged to an IBM compatible computer. We also achieved the enhancement of the system through the manipulation of the dilution rate and the use of thermo-lux fusion strains. Finally, this system is now being implemented to a drinking water reservoir and river for remote sensing as an early warning system.
Kerin, Igor; Bekić, Damir; Michalis, Panagiotis; Šolman, Hrvoje; Cahill, Paul; Gilja, Gordon; Pakrashi, Vikram; Lapthorne, John; McKeogh, Eamon
Recent advances in computational speed, cloud systems and GPRS data are some of the factors that have resulted in an increased number of operational and fully automatized Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS). Flood forecasting is becoming a well-recognised solution for flood management as an indirect measure for minimising the risk should preventive or defence measures prove ineffective or are not feasible for implementation. Public acceptance of FEWS as a standalone solution is still considered to be at low level. Further public engagement regarding engineering risks and providing timely notifications and warnings can, however, establish the true value of such a system to the society in general. Flood risks can be direct, resulting in damage to buildings, infrastructure and natural resources, or indirect, which can be related to disaster losses leading to declines in commercial output or revenue and impact on wellbeing of people, typically from disruptions to the flow of goods and services. Flood risk and structural risks are closely related, thereby impacting the maintenance and management of bridges assets over watercourses. Many studies indicate that most bridge collapses are related to hydraulic effects and consequently scour issues (i.e. the removal of riverbed around bridge foundations due to flowing water). Consequently, hydraulic, hydrologic and geotechnical expertise and knowledge can lead to introducing FEWS as a key tool for Bridge Scour Management System (BSMS), forming a part of a BMS. The implementation of this concept was initiated with the EU/FP7 funded project BRIDGE SMS. The project introduces BSMS into the overall BMS to develop a reliable decision support tool which would efficiently manage bridge failure risks in a cost-effective way. This is accomplished through the development of FEWS, alongside monitoring systems that can provide important information about environmental and structural conditions at the catchment area and bridge site
Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah
Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has
Sheeran, C.T.; Franklin, J.C.
A commercially available microprocessor-based system capable of monitoring 512 channels has been interfaced with monitors for radon, working level, air velocity, and fan power. The basic system utilizes both Z80 and 8080 microprocessors in a desktop central processing unit (CPU). CPU hardware includes keyboard, video display (CRT), and disk drive; a printer is used to keep permanent data records. Signals from all channels are transmitted to the computer in digital form where they are processed for alarm status. Software developed for the system allows for audiovisual alarms in the event of low and high readings, rate change, change of state, or communication failure. Up to six channels can be continuously displayed on the CRT for current readings. Shift reports and trend logs may be generated to help the ventilation engineer determine average working levels and ventilation effectiveness. Additional software permits the operator to program command sequencies which may be used to automatically restart fans after a power outage
Sun, Fuyu; Zhou, Jianping; Xu, Zheyao
This study proposes a new simulation platform named Simulation Integrated Management (SIM) for the analysis of parallel and distributed systems. The platform eases the process of designing and testing both applications and architectures. The main characteristics of SIM are flexibility, scalability, and expandability. To improve the efficiency of project development, new models of early-warning satellite system were designed based on the SIM platform. Finally, through a series of experiments, the correctness of SIM platform and the aforementioned early-warning satellite models was validated, and the systematical analyses for the orbital determination precision of the ballistic missile during its entire flight process were presented, as well as the deviation of the launch/landing point. Furthermore, the causes of deviation and prevention methods will be fully explained. The simulation platform and the models will lay the foundations for further validations of autonomy technology in space attack-defense architecture research.
Kandel, Nirmal; Hapsari, Ratna Budi; Riana, Dyah Armi; Setiawaty, Vivi; Larasati, Wita; Wulandari, Endang; Purwanto, Edy
Background: Establishment of Early Warning Alert and Response System (EWARS) in Indonesia was initiated since 2009 in few selected provinces and government was planning to roll out in other provinces. Before initiating this roll out the assessment of performance of EWARS in 2012 was conducted. The aim of the assessment is to strengthen laboratory for supporting to EWARS for alerts testing. Methods: Laboratory capacity mapping tool and laboratory algorithm for twenty two priority diseases of ...
Hayashi, M.; Nagatani, I.; Watanabe, T.; Tadono, T.; Miyoshi, H.; Watanabe, M.; Koyama, C.; Shimada, M.; Ogawa, T.; Ishii, K.; Higashiuwatoko, T.; Miura, M.; Okonogi, H.; Adachi, K.; Morita, T.
Satellite observation is an efficient method for monitoring deforestation, and a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is useful especially in cloudy tropical forest regions. In this context, JICA and JAXA cooperate to operate the deforestation monitoring system acquired data by the Phased Array type L-band SAR-2 (PALSAR-2) onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2), which is named as "JICA-JAXA Forest Early Warning System in the Tropics" (JJ-FAST), and it have been released on November 2016. JJ-FAST detects deforestation areas, and provides their positional information for 77 countries, which is covering almost all tropical forests. It uses PALSAR-2 ScanSAR observation mode (wide-observation swath width) image, which is 50 m spatial resolution acquired at 1.5 months interval. The dark change areas compared with in two acquisitions by PALSAR-2 HV-polarization images are identified as deforestations in the system. We conducted field surveys to validate detection accuracy of the JJ-FAST in Peru (November and December, 2016), Botswana (April, 2017), and Gabon (July, 2017). As the results, 15 of 18 detected areas were correct deforestation areas, therefore user's accuracy could be confirmed as 83.3 % from limited number of the validation data. Erroneous detection areas were caused by seasonal change in agricultural land and open burning in grass land. For improvement of the accuracy, such areas must be excluded from the analysis by additional algorithms e.g. estimation of accurate masking for non-forested areas. Therefore, we are revising the forest map used for pre-processing step in the system. The JJ-FAST can be expected to contribute to monitor and reduce illegal deforestation activities in tropical forests.
Li, M; Zhao, L; Chen, M; Wen, D; Liu, R; Yang, X
Background: Solar greenhouses are very popular in the north of China as a way of meeting the demand for fresh local winter vegetables. Nonetheless, they are more susceptible to biological and meteorological disasters, such as diseases, pests, fog, haze and cold temperatures. Although we have deployed many record keeping equipment and weather stations, we have lower efficiency of usage on data. Big data has great potential in the future. Thus, our aim is to investigate a big data system for di...
The method described enables overheating to be detected at the incipient stage of a five. Freon-filled microcapsules are applied in the form of powder or paint to the surfaces being monitored. The microcapsules burst at a given temperature and the released freon can be sensed by halogen detectors coupled to the normal smoke-detector system. Alternatively, the noise of the bursting microcapsules can be simply detected by microphones. (Auth.)
Fleury, Laurence; Brissebrat, Guillaume; Boichard, Jean-Luc; Cloché, Sophie; Mière, Arnaud; Moulaye, Oumarou; Ramage, Karim; Favot, Florence; Boulanger, Damien
ESPRI in France: http://database.amma-international.org. The complete system is fully duplicated and operated by CRA in Niger: http://amma.agrhymet.ne/amma-data. (ii) A day-to-day chart display software has been designed and operated in order to monitor meteorological and environment information and to meet the observational team needs during the AMMA 2006 SOP (http://aoc.amma-international.org) and FENNEC 2011 campaign (http://fenoc.sedoo.fr). At present the websites constitute a synthetic view on the campaigns and a preliminary investigation tool for researchers. Since 2011, the same application enables a group of French and Senegalese researchers and forecasters to exchange in near real-time physical indices and diagnosis calculated from numerical weather operational forecasts, satellite products and in situ operational observations along the monsoon season, in order to better assess, understand and anticipate the monsoon intraseasonal variability (http://misva.sedoo.fr). Another similar website is dedicated to diagnosis and forecast of heat waves in West Africa (http://acasis.sedoo.fr). It aims at becoming an operational component for national early warning systems. (iii) A collaborative WIKINDX tool has been set on line in order to gather together scientific publications, theses and communications of interest: http://biblio.amma-international.org. At present the bibliographic database counts about 1200 references. It is the most exhaustive document collection about the West African monsoon available for all. Every scientist is invited to make use of the AMMA online tools and data. Scientists or project leaders who have management needs for existing or future datasets concerning West Africa are welcome to use the AMMA database framework and to contact ammaAdmin@sedoo.fr .
Xu, Yunzhen; Du, Pei; Wang, Jianzhou
As the atmospheric environment pollution has been becoming more and more serious in China, it is highly desirable to develop a scientific and effective early warning system that plays a great significant role in analyzing and monitoring air quality. However, establishing a robust early warning system for warning the public in advance and ameliorating air quality is not only an extremely challenging task but also a public concerned problem for human health. Most previous studies are focused on improving the prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significance of uncertainty information and comprehensive evaluation concerning air pollutants. Therefore, in this paper a novel robust early warning system was successfully developed, which consists of three modules: evaluation module, forecasting module and characteristics estimating module. In this system, a new dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed and applied to determine air quality levels and primary pollutants, which can be regarded as the research objectives; Moreover, to further mine and analyze the characteristics of air pollutants, four different distribution functions and interval forecasting method are also employed that can not only provide predictive range, confidence level and the other uncertain information of the pollutants future values, but also assist decision-makers in reducing and controlling the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. Case studies utilizing hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 data collected from Tianjin and Shanghai in China are applied as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. Experimental results obviously indicated that the developed novel early warning system is much suitable for analyzing and monitoring air pollution, which can also add a novel viable option for decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Rasha K. Bader
Full Text Available Abstract Background Pictorial warning labels (PWLs deter initiation and motivate quitting. Assessing PWLs is important to track effectiveness and wear out. Jordan introduced an updated set of PWLs in 2013. This study assessed the effectiveness of the set after 2.5 years on the market. Methods We administered a survey in a cross-sectional sample of young adults aged 17–26 years. For convenience, respondents were recruited on university campuses. For heterogeneity, respondents were solicited from the different schools in four geographically diverse university campuses. The study compared perceptions of effectiveness surveyed in 2015 to perceptions gauged in 2010 during a pre-launch evaluation exercise. Outcomes of interest were: salience, fear evocation, adding information, and ability to motivate quitting smoking (for smokers or deterring starting (for non-smokers. Results Results indicate awareness of the set among smokers and non-smokers, and their recall of at least one PWL message. Results also indicate effectiveness of the set: (1 1/3 smokers who frequently saw them reported PWLs to trigger considering quitting, (2 and among both smokers and non-smokers the set in 2015 sustained ability to motivate quitting and staying smoke-free. However, results uncover erosion of salience, suggesting that the set has reached its end of life. Finally, results reveal variability in performance among PWLs; the one PWL that depicts human suffering significantly outperformed the others, and its ability to motivate was most strongly associated with its ability to evoke fear. Conclusion Based on the early signs of wear-out (i.e. erosion of salience, and understanding the importance of sustaining upstream outcomes (especially fear evocation to sustain motivation, we recommend retiring this set of PWLs and replacing it with a stronger set in line with proven standards.
Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.
Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we
The early warning score is a decision-making tool that has a simple design, yet its implementation in healthcare organisations is proving complex. This article reports the results of a survey that evaluated the nurses’ experiences of using the NEWS (National Early Warning Score) in an acute hospital in Ireland. Staff reported that the NEWS was easy to use, did not increase workload and enhanced their ability to identify deteriorating patients. However, they also identified problems related to doctors’ delayed response times, doctors lack of training in the use of the tool, and a failure by doctors to modify parameters for patients with chronic conditions. NEWS enhances nurses’ role in early detection of patient deterioration but delays in response times by doctors, exposes systematic flaws in healthcare. This suggests that it is not only an indicator of patient deterioration but also of deteriorating healthcare systems.
Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong
The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.
Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Stoeger, Angela S
The decline of habitat for elephants due to expanding human activity is a serious conservation problem. This has continuously escalated the human-elephant conflict in Africa and Asia. Elephants make extensive use of powerful infrasonic calls (rumbles) that travel distances of up to several kilometers. This makes elephants well-suited for acoustic monitoring because it enables detecting elephants even if they are out of sight. In sight, their distinct visual appearance makes them a good candidate for visual monitoring. We provide an integrated overview of our interdisciplinary project that established the scientific fundamentals for a future early warning and monitoring system for humans who regularly experience serious conflict with elephants. We first draw the big picture of an early warning and monitoring system, then review the developed solutions for automatic acoustic and visual detection, discuss specific challenges and present open future work necessary to build a robust and reliable early warning and monitoring system that is able to operate in situ. We present a method for the automated detection of elephant rumbles that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in situ. We evaluated the method on an extensive set of audio data recorded under natural field conditions. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches and accurately detects elephant rumbles. Our visual detection method shows that tracking elephants in wildlife videos (of different sizes and postures) is feasible and particularly robust at near distances. From our project results we draw a number of conclusions that are discussed and summarized. We clearly identified the most critical challenges and necessary improvements of the proposed detection methods and conclude that our findings have the potential to form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. We discuss challenges that need to be solved and summarize open topics in the context of
Guffanti, Marianne; Scott, William E.; Driedger, Carolyn L.; Ewert, John W.
The importance of investing in monitoring, mitigation, and preparedness before natural hazards occur has been amply demonstrated by recent disasters such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in December 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in August 2005. Playing catch-up with hazardous natural phenomena such as these limits our ability to work with public officials and the public to lessen adverse impacts. With respect to volcanic activity, the starting point of effective pre-event mitigation is monitoring capability sufficient to detect and diagnose precursory unrest so that communities at risk have reliable information and sufficient time to respond to hazards with which they may be confronted. Recognizing that many potentially dangerous U.S. volcanoes have inadequate or no ground-based monitoring, the U.S Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) and partners recently evaluated U.S. volcano-monitoring capabilities and published 'An Assessment of Volcanic Threat and Monitoring Capabilities in the United States: Framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS).' Results of the NVEWS volcanic threat and monitoring assessment are being used to guide long-term improvements to the national volcano-monitoring infrastructure operated by the USGS and affiliated groups. The NVEWS report identified the need to convene a workshop of a broad group of stakeholders--such as representatives of emergency- and land-management agencies at the Federal, State, and local levels and the aviation sector--to solicit input about implementation of NVEWS and their specific information requirements. Accordingly, an NVEWS Stakeholders Workshop was held in Portland, Oregon, on 22-23 February 2006. A summary of the workshop is presented in this document.
... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be tested for the prescribed warning time at least once every 12 months and when the warning system is...
Bueno, Mercedes; Fabrigoule, Colette; Deleurence, Philippe; Ndiaye, Daniel; Fort, Alexandra
Driver distraction has been identified as the most important contributing factor in rear-end collisions. In this context, Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS) have been developed specifically to warn drivers of potential rear-end collisions. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of a surrogate FCWS and of its reliability according to the driver's attentional state by recording both behavioral and electrophysiological data. Participants drove following a lead motorcycle in a simplified simulator with or without a warning system which gave forewarning of the preceding vehicle braking. Participants had to perform this driving task either alone (simple task) or simultaneously with a secondary cognitive task (dual task). Behavioral and electrophysiological data contributed to revealing a positive effect of the warning system. Participants were faster in detecting the brake light when the system was perfect or imperfect, and the time and attentional resources allocation required for processing the target at higher cognitive level were reduced when the system was completely reliable. When both tasks were performed simultaneously, warning effectiveness was considerably affected at both performance and neural levels; however, the analysis of the brain activity revealed fewer differences between distracted and undistracted drivers when using the warning system. These results show that electrophysiological data could be a valuable tool to complement behavioral data and to have a better understanding of how these systems impact the driver. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
P. L. N. Raju
Full Text Available North Eastern Region (NER of India comprising of eight states considered to be most unique and one of the most challenging regions to govern due to its unique physiographic condition, rich biodiversity, disaster prone and diverse socio-economic characteristics. Operational Remote Sensing services increased manifolds in the region with the establishment of North Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC in the year 2000. Since inception, NESAC has been providing remote sensing services in generating inventory, planning and developmental activities, and management of natural resources, disasters and dissemination of information and services through geo-web services for NER. The operational remote sensing services provided by NESAC can be broadly divided into three categories viz. natural resource planning and developmental services, disaster risk reduction and early warning services and information dissemination through geo-portal services. As a apart of natural resources planning and developmental services NESAC supports the state forest departments in preparing the forest working plans by providing geospatial inputs covering entire NER, identifying the suitable culturable wastelands for cultivation of silkworm food plants, mapping of natural resources such as land use/land cover, wastelands, land degradation etc. on temporal basis. In the area of disaster risk reduction, NESAC has initiated operational services for early warning and post disaster assessment inputs for flood early warning system (FLEWS using satellite remote sensing, numerical weather prediction, hydrological modeling etc.; forest fire alert system with actionable attribute information; Japanese Encephalitis Early Warning System (JEWS based on mosquito vector abundance, pig population and historical disease intensity and agriculture drought monitoring for the region. The large volumes of geo-spatial databases generated as part of operational services are made available to the
Raju, P. L. N.; Sarma, K. K.; Barman, D.; Handique, B. K.; Chutia, D.; Kundu, S. S.; Das, R. Kr.; Chakraborty, K.; Das, R.; Goswami, J.; Das, P.; Devi, H. S.; Nongkynrih, J. M.; Bhusan, K.; Singh, M. S.; Singh, P. S.; Saikhom, V.; Goswami, C.; Pebam, R.; Borgohain, A.; Gogoi, R. B.; Singh, N. R.; Bharali, A.; Sarma, D.; Lyngdoh, R. B.; Mandal, P. P.; Chabukdhara, M.
North Eastern Region (NER) of India comprising of eight states considered to be most unique and one of the most challenging regions to govern due to its unique physiographic condition, rich biodiversity, disaster prone and diverse socio-economic characteristics. Operational Remote Sensing services increased manifolds in the region with the establishment of North Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC) in the year 2000. Since inception, NESAC has been providing remote sensing services in generating inventory, planning and developmental activities, and management of natural resources, disasters and dissemination of information and services through geo-web services for NER. The operational remote sensing services provided by NESAC can be broadly divided into three categories viz. natural resource planning and developmental services, disaster risk reduction and early warning services and information dissemination through geo-portal services. As a apart of natural resources planning and developmental services NESAC supports the state forest departments in preparing the forest working plans by providing geospatial inputs covering entire NER, identifying the suitable culturable wastelands for cultivation of silkworm food plants, mapping of natural resources such as land use/land cover, wastelands, land degradation etc. on temporal basis. In the area of disaster risk reduction, NESAC has initiated operational services for early warning and post disaster assessment inputs for flood early warning system (FLEWS) using satellite remote sensing, numerical weather prediction, hydrological modeling etc.; forest fire alert system with actionable attribute information; Japanese Encephalitis Early Warning System (JEWS) based on mosquito vector abundance, pig population and historical disease intensity and agriculture drought monitoring for the region. The large volumes of geo-spatial databases generated as part of operational services are made available to the administrators and
Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Norman, S.; Christie, W.; Hoffman, F. M.
The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Western Wildland Environmental Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service have collaborated with NASA Stennis Space Center to develop ForWarn, a forest monitoring tool that uses MODIS satellite imagery to produce weekly snapshots of vegetation conditions across the lower 48 United States. Forest and natural resource managers can use ForWarn to rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, severe weather, or other natural or human-caused events. ForWarn detects most types of forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, and landslides. It also detects drought, flood, and temperature effects, and shows early and delayed seasonal vegetation development. Operating continuously since January 2010, results show ForWarn to be a robust and highly capable tool for detecting changes in forest conditions. ForWarn is the first national-scale system of its kind based on remote sensing developed specifically for forest disturbances. It has operated as a prototype since January 2010 and has provided useful information about the location and extent of disturbances detected during the 2011 growing season, including tornadoes, wildfires, and extreme drought. The ForWarn system had an official unveiling and rollout in March 2012, initiated by a joint NASA and USDA press release. The ForWarn home page has had 2,632 unique visitors since rollout in March 2012, with 39% returning visits. ForWarn was used to map tornado scars from the historic April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, and detected timber damage within more than a dozen tornado tracks across northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. ForWarn is the result of an ongoing, substantive cooperation among four different government agencies: USDA, NASA, USGS, and DOE. Disturbance maps are available on the
Full Text Available The always relevant issues of the assessment of bankruptcy risk for enterprises require that bankruptcy processes occurring in Poland are analysed on a continuous basis. This leads to verification of the existing theory on economics of bankruptcies and business failures on the one hand, and its further evolution on the other hand. For business practice, of significant importance in this area are methods for effective (pre-emptive diagnosis of the signs of the deteriorating economic and financial situation of an enterprise, which can precede an enterprise’s loss of the ability to pay and consequently permanent insolvency (bankruptcy. The traditional ex post indicator analysis has become by far insufficient. Thus, as it evolved, various science and research centres around the around, including in Poland, were undertaking efforts to create new early warning systems to ensure pre-emptive assessment of the bankruptcy risk level for economic entities. An early warning system is one of the elements designed to assess the economic and financial situation of a company. It allows us to identify the risk at an early stage and implement appropriate corrective processes. Early identification of the signs of a pending crisis should thus be one of the basic tasks in the management of a company. The aim of the paper is to assess the identification of bankruptcy risk for the company Wawel S.A, with the analysis covering the period from 2013 to 2015 in the company's operation. Moreover, the authors of the paper show the possibility of the application of Polish models for bankruptcy risk assessment by both internal and external stakeholders, who can use the information contained in financial statements and calculated financial indicators to assess whether a given economic entity is a healthy or sick entity. The research methods used in the paper are: literature analysis, calculations by Polish early warning systems and analysis of the case study of the company
Pallares, Elena; Hernandez, Hector; Moré, Jordi; Espino, Manuel; Sairouni, Abdel
between the 5th and the 8th day of the prediction. The information obtained is then included in an early warning system, designed in the framework of the European project iCoast (ECHO/SUB/2013/661009) with the aim of set alarms in coastal areas depending on the wave conditions, the sea level, the flooding and the run up in the coast.
Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald
Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are
Wilson, Raymond C.; Mark, Robert K.; Barbato, Gary; ,
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have developed an operational warning system for debris flows during severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS makes quantitative forecasts of precipitation from storm systems approaching the Bay area and coordinates a regional network of radio-telemetered rain gages. The USGS has formulated thresholds for the intensity and duration of rainfall required to initiate debris flows. The first successful public warnings were issued during a severe storm sequence in February 1986. Continued operation of the warning system since 1986 has provided valuable working experience in rainfall forecasting and monitoring, refined rainfall thresholds, and streamlined procedures for issuing public warnings. Advisory statements issued since 1986 are summarized.
McGaughey, Jennifer; O'Halloran, Peter; Porter, Sam; Trinder, John; Blackwood, Bronagh
To test the Rapid Response Systems programme theory against actual practice components of the Rapid Response Systems implemented to identify those contexts and mechanisms which have an impact on the successful achievement of desired outcomes in practice. Rapid Response Systems allow deteriorating patients to be recognized using Early Warning Systems, referred early via escalation protocols and managed at the bedside by competent staff. Realist evaluation. The research design was an embedded multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland which followed the principles of Realist Evaluation. We used various mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation of nursing practice between June-November 2010 and document analysis of Early Warning Systems audit data between May-October 2010 and hospital acute care training records over 4.5 years from 2003-2008. Data were analysed using NiVivo8 and SPPS. A cross-case analysis highlighted similar patterns of factors which enabled or constrained successful recognition, referral and response to deteriorating patients in practice. Key enabling factors were the use of clinical judgement by experienced nurses and the empowerment of nurses as a result of organizational change associated with implementation of Early Warning System protocols. Key constraining factors were low staffing and inappropriate skill mix levels, rigid implementation of protocols and culturally embedded suboptimal communication processes. Successful implementation of Rapid Response Systems was dependent on adopting organizational and cultural changes that facilitated staff empowerment, flexible implementation of protocols and ongoing experiential learning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab
Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53
Bueno, Mercedes; Fort, Alexandra; Francois, Mathilde; Ndiaye, Daniel; Deleurence, Philippe; Fabrigoule, Colette
Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS) are expected to assist drivers; however, it is not completely clear whether these systems are of benefit to distracted drivers as much as they are to undistracted drivers. This study aims at investigating further the analysis of the effectiveness of a surrogate FCWS according to the attentional state of participants. In this experiment electrophysiological and behavioural data were recording while participants were required to drive in a simple car simulator and to react to the braking of the lead vehicle which could be announced by a warning system. The effectiveness of this warning system was evaluated when drivers were distracted or not by a secondary cognitive task. In a previous study, the warning signal was not completely effective likely due to the presence of another predictor of the forthcoming braking which competes with the warning. By eliminating this secondary predictor in the present study, the results confirmed the negative effect of the secondary task and revealed the expected effectiveness of the warning system at behavioural and electrophysiological levels. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Department of Transportation — The Aeronautical Information System (AIS) is a leased weather automated system that provides a means of collecting and distributing aeronautical weather information...
Full Text Available Early warning system is one of the technology to detect land fires by utilizing a network of wireless sensors. Constant data transmission by the sensor nodes consumes a large amount of energy on the nodes’ sides that could affect the battery’s longevity. This research is done to discover the amount of power consumption and battery longevity during fire emergencies, and during non-emergency situation on peatlands. Power saving on the fire detecting system uses an LM35 temperature sensor, ATmega8 micro-controller and HC-12 transmission module. The overall result of powered by a 9 volt battery during fire emergencies, and during non-emergency, the power consumption reaches up to 1 Wh, with various longevity levels of the battery. The implementation of sleep/wake up mode scheduling during fire emergencies and non-emergencies could save battery for 2 hours compared to those without the power saving mode implementation. Power saving during fire emergency could be minimalized by activating the sleep mode activation power-down on the micro controller and it can also set the data transmission schedule to minimalize data usage during fire emergency, so that the usage of sleep/wake up mode interval scheduling during transmission could minimalize energy consumption and elongate the power supply active period.
Muhrer, Elke; Reinprecht, Klaus; Vollrath, Mark
The effects of a forward collision warning (FCW) and braking system (FCW+) were examined in a driving simulator study analyzing driving and gaze behavior and the engagement in a secondary task. In-depth accident analyses indicate that a lack of appropriate expectations for possible critical situations and visual distraction may be the major causes of rear-end crashes. Studies with FCW systems have shown that a warning alone was not enough for a driver to be able to avoid the accident. Thus,an additional braking intervention by such systems could be necessary. In a driving simulator experiment, 30 drivers took part in a car-following scenario in an urban area. It was assumed that different lead car behaviors and environmental aspects would lead to different drivers' expectations of the future traffic situation. Driving with and without FCW+ was introduced as a between-subjects factor. Driving with FCW+ resulted in significantly fewer accidents in critical situations. This result was achieved by the system's earlier reaction time as compared with that of drivers. The analysis of the gaze behavior showed that driving with the system did not lead to a stronger involvement in secondary tasks. The study supports the hypotheses about the importance of missing expectations for the occurrence of accidents. These accidents can be prevented by an FCW+ that brakes autonomously. The results indicate that an autonomous braking intervention should be implemented in FCW systems to increase the effectiveness of these assistance systems.
A radar-based proximity warning system was evaluated by researchers at the Spokane Research Laboratory of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to determine if the system would be effective in detecting objects in the blind spots of an off-highway dump truck. An average of five fatalities occur each year in surface mines as a result of an equipment operator not being aware of a smaller vehicle, person or change in terrain near the equipment. Sensor technology that can detect such obstacles and that also is designed for surface mining applications is rare. Researchers worked closely with the radar system manufacturer to test and modify the system on large, off-highway dump trucks at a surface mine over a period of 2 years. The final system was thoroughly evaluated by recording video images from a camera on the rear of the truck and by recording all alarms from the rear-mounted radar. Data show that the system reliably detected small vehicles, berms, people and other equipment. However, alarms from objects that posed no immediate danger were common, supporting the assertion that sensor-based systems for proximity warning should be used in combination with other devices, such as cameras, that would allow the operator to check the source of any alarm.
Samadzadegan, F.; Saber, M.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Joze Ghazi Khanlou, H.
Rapidly discovering, sharing, integrating and applying geospatial information are key issues in the domain of emergency response and disaster management. Due to the distributed nature of data and processing resources in disaster management, utilizing a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) to take advantages of workflow of services provides an efficient, flexible and reliable implementations to encounter different hazardous situation. The implementation specification of the Web Processing Service (WPS) has guided geospatial data processing in a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) platform to become a widely accepted solution for processing remotely sensed data on the web. This paper presents an architecture design based on OGC web services for automated workflow for acquisition, processing remotely sensed data, detecting fire and sending notifications to the authorities. A basic architecture and its building blocks for an automated fire detection early warning system are represented using web-based processing of remote sensing imageries utilizing MODIS data. A composition of WPS processes is proposed as a WPS service to extract fire events from MODIS data. Subsequently, the paper highlights the role of WPS as a middleware interface in the domain of geospatial web service technology that can be used to invoke a large variety of geoprocessing operations and chaining of other web services as an engine of composition. The applicability of proposed architecture by a real world fire event detection and notification use case is evaluated. A GeoPortal client with open-source software was developed to manage data, metadata, processes, and authorities. Investigating feasibility and benefits of proposed framework shows that this framework can be used for wide area of geospatial applications specially disaster management and environmental monitoring.
Full Text Available Rapidly discovering, sharing, integrating and applying geospatial information are key issues in the domain of emergency response and disaster management. Due to the distributed nature of data and processing resources in disaster management, utilizing a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA to take advantages of workflow of services provides an efficient, flexible and reliable implementations to encounter different hazardous situation. The implementation specification of the Web Processing Service (WPS has guided geospatial data processing in a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA platform to become a widely accepted solution for processing remotely sensed data on the web. This paper presents an architecture design based on OGC web services for automated workflow for acquisition, processing remotely sensed data, detecting fire and sending notifications to the authorities. A basic architecture and its building blocks for an automated fire detection early warning system are represented using web-based processing of remote sensing imageries utilizing MODIS data. A composition of WPS processes is proposed as a WPS service to extract fire events from MODIS data. Subsequently, the paper highlights the role of WPS as a middleware interface in the domain of geospatial web service technology that can be used to invoke a large variety of geoprocessing operations and chaining of other web services as an engine of composition. The applicability of proposed architecture by a real world fire event detection and notification use case is evaluated. A GeoPortal client with open-source software was developed to manage data, metadata, processes, and authorities. Investigating feasibility and benefits of proposed framework shows that this framework can be used for wide area of geospatial applications specially disaster management and environmental monitoring.
Documentation for 201447 Spending more on ShakeAlert now and including sustainable operating costs can be justified. In a 2016 publication in...Seismological Research Letters, entitled “ Benefits and Costs of Earthquake Early Warning,” Strauss and Allen determine that “according to FEMA’s cost ...statistical life in the United States is USD 6.6 million.”48 As such, the benefits outweigh the costs as the earthquake early warning system alone would
Bálint, András; Fagerlind, Helen; Kullgren, Anders
In this paper, a test-based assessment method for pre-crash warning and braking systems is presented where the effectiveness of a system is measured by its ability to reduce the number of injuries of a given type or severity in car-to-car rear-end collisions. Injuries with whiplash symptoms lasting longer than 1 month and MAIS2+ injuries in both vehicles involved in the crash are considered in the assessment. The injury reduction resulting from the impact speed reduction due to a pre-crash system is estimated using a method which has its roots in the dose-response model. Human-machine interaction is also taken into account in the assessment. The results reflect the self-protection as well as the partner-protection performance of a pre-crash system in the striking vehicle in rear-end collisions and enable a comparison between two or more systems. It is also shown how the method may be used to assess the importance of warning as part of a pre-crash system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Yang, Ming; Kiang, Melody; Shang, Wei
Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are believed to be a leading cause of death in the world. Pharmacovigilance systems are aimed at early detection of ADRs. With the popularity of social media, Web forums and discussion boards become important sources of data for consumers to share their drug use experience, as a result may provide useful information on drugs and their adverse reactions. In this study, we propose an automated ADR related posts filtering mechanism using text classification methods. In real-life settings, ADR related messages are highly distributed in social media, while non-ADR related messages are unspecific and topically diverse. It is expensive to manually label a large amount of ADR related messages (positive examples) and non-ADR related messages (negative examples) to train classification systems. To mitigate this challenge, we examine the use of a partially supervised learning classification method to automate the process. We propose a novel pharmacovigilance system leveraging a Latent Dirichlet Allocation modeling module and a partially supervised classification approach. We select drugs with more than 500 threads of discussion, and collect all the original posts and comments of these drugs using an automatic Web spidering program as the text corpus. Various classifiers were trained by varying the number of positive examples and the number of topics. The trained classifiers were applied to 3000 posts published over 60 days. Top-ranked posts from each classifier were pooled and the resulting set of 300 posts was reviewed by a domain expert to evaluate the classifiers. Compare to the alternative approaches using supervised learning methods and three general purpose partially supervised learning methods, our approach performs significantly better in terms of precision, recall, and the F measure (the harmonic mean of precision and recall), based on a computational experiment using online discussion threads from Medhelp. Our design provides
Mimides, Theologos; Rizos, Spyros; Soulis, Kostas; Dimitrov, Dobri
Struma is collecting waters from four countries: Bulgaria, Serbia, FYROM and Greece. Most of its basin area is located in Bulgaria and Greece, while the upper part of its basin is in Bulgaria. There are important hydro technical structures just below the Bulgarian-Greek border, and the floods generated in the Bulgarian part of the basin could significantly affect the security of those structures and their operational rules. That is why several years ago a project related to flood warning at Struma/ Strymonas river basin was formulated and its first phase was completed in 2000. The main objective of the project was to demonstrate the principal possibility for issuing reliable warnings for hazardous flood events with sufficient lead-time to organize flood mitigation measures. The project implementation team included various scientists from the Agricultural University of Athens-Greece (leader), from the Center of Remote Sensing, Bristol University-UK, and from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Sofia - Bulgaria. The work program of the first project phase included a range of activities implemented by the Bulgarian and Greek team members, coordinated by the Agricultural University of Athens. Among the activities of the Project are included: a) a preliminary model for peak flood hydrographs and specifications of an early warning system, b) a real time flood forecasting by routing flood hydrographs through the system of the river and Kerkini lake, c) thematic maps of vegetation and land cover derived by satellite remote sensing, d) satellite snow monitoring in the basin, e) an adaptation of the Alladin Weather Forecast Model at the hydrological basin and scaling of the Crocus Snow Model at a preliminary stage, and f) development of a geo environmental recording system.(Author)
Gheorghe Popescu; Veronica Adriana Popescu; Cristina Raluca Popescu
The article covers:Defining an information system; benefits obtained by introducing new information technologies; IT management;Defining prerequisites, analysis, design, implementation of IS; Information security management system; aspects regarding IS security policy; Conceptual model of a security system; Auditing information security systems and network infrastructure security.
Smith, D. L.; Kerns, J. P.; Walker, N. R.; Payne, A. F.; Horvath, B.; Inguagiato, J. C.; Kaminski, J. E.; Tomaso-Peterson, M.
Dollar spot is one of the most common diseases of golf course turfgrass and numerous fungicide applications are often required to provide adequate control. Weather-based disease warning systems have been developed to more accurately time fungicide applications; however, they tend to be ineffective and are not currently in widespread use. The primary objective of this research was to develop a new weather-based disease warning system to more accurately advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot activity across a broad geographic and climactic range. The new dollar spot warning system was developed from data collected at field sites in Madison, WI and Stillwater, OK in 2008 and warning system validation sites were established in Madison, WI, Stillwater, OK, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Starkville, MS, and Storrs, CT between 2011 and 2016. A meta-analysis of all site-years was conducted and the most effective warning system for dollar spot development consisted of a five-day moving average of relative humidity and average daily temperature. Using this model the highest effective probability that provided dollar spot control similar to that of a calendar-based program across the numerous sites and years was 20%. Additional analysis found that the 20% spray threshold provided comparable control to the calendar-based program while reducing fungicide usage by up to 30%, though further refinement may be needed as practitioners implement this warning system in a range of environments not tested here. The weather-based dollar spot warning system presented here will likely become an important tool for implementing precision disease management strategies for future turfgrass managers, especially as financial and regulatory pressures increase the need to reduce pesticide usage on golf course turfgrass. PMID:29522560
Blethyn, Stanley G
Designing Information Systems focuses on the processes, methodologies, and approaches involved in designing information systems. The book first describes systems, management and control, and how to design information systems. Discussions focus on documents produced from the functional construction function, users, operators, analysts, programmers and others, process management and control, levels of management, open systems, design of management information systems, and business system description, partitioning, and leveling. The text then takes a look at functional specification and functiona
Mountain societies are in a crucial transition phase in terms of the management of natural hazards. Advances in geographic technologies, such as a variety of remote-sensing tools and mobile communication systems, have drastically changed the way of early warning methods in difficult accessible high mountain environments compared to those of ancient times. In order to implement new natural hazard policies, it is essential to unravel the traditional ways of disaster management which is presented here by a case study from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas. In the rugged relief of the Himalaya Region, the exchange of information was a labor-intensive and time-consuming task for remote high mountain villages before the infrastructural development and the introduction of modern communication systems. Therefore, early warning of natural hazards with long run-out distances seems to have been rather impossible. However, in the present study a historical optical long-distance and fast operating communication system over horizontal distances of several hundred kilometers was discovered during field investigations in the Hindukush-Karakoram and the transmission paths reconstructed in the following years. The so called Puberanch-system relied on a chain of fire signals as used by ancient societies in other mountain and coastal environments in the world. It was originally in use for the alert against war attacks from hostile neighboring communities. Later on, it served as an early warning system for glacier lake outbursts, which have been in the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century one of the most devastating natural hazards in the region. Remarkable is the fact that fire posts were located in extremely harsh environments at altitudes above 4000 m requiring a highly sophisticated supply system of fire wood and food. Interviews with local inhabitants, the evaluation of historical travel records and international newspapers proved, that the system has been
Lizurek, Grzegorz; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wiszniowski, Jan
Bucharest, with a population of approximately 2 million people, has suffered damage from earthquakes in the Vrancea seismic zone, which is located about 170 km from Bucharest, at a depth of 80-200 km. Consequently, an earthquake early warning system (Bucharest Rapid earthquake Early Warning System or BREWS) was constructed to provide some warning about impending shaking from large earthquakes in the Vrancea zone. In order to provide quick estimates of magnitude, seismic moment was first determined from P-waves and then a moment magnitude was determined from the moment. However, this magnitude may not be consistent with previous estimates of magnitude from the Romanian Seismic Network. This paper introduces the algorithm using P-wave spectral levels and compares them with catalog estimates. The testing procedure used waveforms from about 90 events with catalog magnitudes from 3.5 to 5.4. Corrections to the P-wave determined magnitudes according to dominant intermediate depth events mechanism were tested for November 22, 2014, M5.6 and October 17, M6 events. The corrections worked well, but unveiled overestimation of the average magnitude result of about 0.2 magnitude unit in the case of shallow depth event ( H < 60 km). The P-wave spectral approach allows for the relatively fast estimates of magnitude for use in BREWS. The average correction taking into account the most common focal mechanism for radiation pattern coefficient may lead to overestimation of the magnitude for shallow events of about 0.2 magnitude unit. However, in case of events of intermediate depth of M6 the resulting M w is underestimated at about 0.1-0.2. We conclude that our P-wave spectral approach is sufficiently robust for the needs of BREWS for both shallow and intermediate depth events.
Sury, J.; Skala, L.; Holcak, P.; Matousek, P.
Within recent years, research and development has expanded the portfolio of applied results in the field of early warning systems - both stationary and mobile standalone. Their implementation in different areas all over the world in different climatic conditions and their coincidence of possible communication interface software, databases, data collection and assessment of the radiation situations allow the users to respond to possible events and thus significantly affect the decision-making level for the preventive countermeasures including their utilization during radiation accidents. Some of the results will be presented during the presentation: - Implementation of monitoring stations in Varazdin, Velika Gorica, Sisak, Virovitica, Beli Manastir, Zadar, Knin and Ploce in Croatia 2014. Other locations such as Plitvice, Sibenik and Koprivnica are also considered. Radiometric monitoring station NuEM RAMS, dose rate from 10 nSv h -1 to 1 Sv h -1 . - Implementation of radiation monitoring stations in Warszawa, Zagan, Wroclaw, Szczecin, Krakow, Lublin, Gdynia, Bydgoszcz, Rzeszow, Bartoszyce, Srem, Swinoujscie, and Ustka in Poland 2014-2015. Radiometric monitoring station NuEM RAMS, dose rate from 10 nSv h -1 to 9 Sv h -1 . Purpose of stations - for a radiation monitoring network in a given area and for integration into the networks of early warning system. Measurement by using smart probe with 2 (3) GM tubes according to a measuring range. Power supply from photo-voltaic panel for the standalone mode. Transmission of measured data is done by using a GSM network. Data are stored into database at a web server. - Early warning system in Latvia 2013-2014. 20 pcs of stationary spectrometric AGR or IGS type or equivalent stations, NaI (Tl) or LaBr detector for on-line identification of radionuclides based on integrated isotope base with at least 10 indicated radionuclides (K-40, Mo-99, Ru-103, Rh -106, Te-129, I-131, Te-132, I-133, Cs-134, Cs-137, and Ba-140). Objective
He, Xin; Stisen, Simon; Wiese, Marianne B.; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans
In Denmark, increasing focus on extreme weather events has created considerable demand for short term forecasts and early warnings in relation to groundwater and surface water flooding. The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) has setup, calibrated and applied a nationwide water resources model, the DK-Model, primarily for simulating groundwater and surface water flows and groundwater levels during the past 20 years. So far, the DK-model has only been used in offline historical and future scenario simulations. Therefore, challenges arise in operating such a model for online forecasts and early warnings, which requires access to continuously updated observed climate input data and forecast data of precipitation, temperature and global radiation for the next 48 hours or longer. GEUS has a close collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute in order to test and enable this data input for the DK model. Due to the comprehensive physical descriptions of the DK-Model, the simulation results can potentially be any component of the hydrological cycle within the models domain. Therefore, it is important to identify which results need to be updated and saved in the real-time mode, since it is not computationally economical to save every result considering the heavy load of data. GEUS have worked closely with the end-users and interest groups such as water planners and emergency managers from the municipalities, water supply and waste water companies, consulting companies and farmer organizations, in order to understand their possible needs for real time simulation and monitoring of the nationwide water cycle. This participatory process has been supported by a web based questionnaire survey, and a workshop that connected the model developers and the users. For qualifying the stakeholder engagement, GEUS has selected a representative catchment area (Skjern River) for testing and demonstrating a prototype of the web based hydrological warning system at the
Munoz, Yaromir; Chebat, Jean-Charles; Suissa, Jacob Amnon
Video lottery terminals (VLT) are a highly lucrative gambling format, but at the same time they are among the most hazardous. Previous research has shown that threatening warnings may be an appropriate approach for promoting protective behavior. The present study explores the potential benefits of threatening warnings in the fight against compulsive gambling. A 4 × 2 factorial design experiment was used to test our model based on both Elaboration Likelihood Model and Protection Motivation Theory. 258 VLT adult players (58% males, 42% females) with various degrees of problem gambling were exposed to three threat levels (plus a control condition) from two different sources (i.e., either a medical source or a source related to the provider of VLT's). Our results show that both higher threat warnings and the medical source of warnings enhance Depth of Information Processing. It was also found that Depth of Information Processing affects positively attitude change and compliance intentions. The theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.
Mccann, Robert S.; Spirkovska, Lilly; Smith, Irene
Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) technologies have advanced to the point where they can provide significant automated assistance with real-time fault detection, diagnosis, guided troubleshooting, and failure consequence assessment. To exploit these capabilities in actual operational environments, however, ISHM information must be integrated into operational concepts and associated information displays in ways that enable human operators to process and understand the ISHM system information rapidly and effectively. In this paper, we explore these design issues in the context of an advanced caution and warning system (ACAWS) for next-generation crewed spacecraft missions. User interface concepts for depicting failure diagnoses, failure effects, redundancy loss, "what-if" failure analysis scenarios, and resolution of ambiguity groups are discussed and illustrated.
Shang, Ce; Huang, Jidong; Chaloupka, Frank J; Emery, Sherry L
To examine the impact of flavour, device type and health warning messages on youth preference for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and to provide evidence and data to inform the Food and Drug Administration's potential regulatory actions on ENDS. An online discrete choice experiment was conducted in September 2015. Each participant was given nine choice sets and asked to choose one out of two alternative ENDS products, with varying characteristics in three attributes (flavour, device type and warning message). The impact of the attributes on the probability of choosing ENDS was analysed using conditional and nested logit regressions, controlling for individual sociodemographic characteristics and current smoking status. A general population sample of 515 participants (50 ever-users and 465 never-users of ENDS) aged 14-17 years were recruited to complete the experiment using an online panel. Fruit/sweets/beverage flavours significantly increase the probability of choosing ENDS among youth (pe-cigarettes, increase (p<0.05) the probability of choosing ENDS among adolescent never-users. Warning messages reduce (p<0.01) the probability of choosing ENDS among never-users. Restricting fruit/sweets/beverage flavours in ENDS, regulating modifiable vaping devices and adopting strong health warning messages may reduce the uptake of ENDS among youth. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; Rocklöv, Joacim; Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Tejeda, Gustavo; Benitez, David; Gill, Balvinder; Hakim, S Lokman; Gomes Carvalho, Roberta; Bowman, Leigh; Petzold, Max
Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people's health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level. We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users' recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user's workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico. 34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion. EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities.
Full Text Available Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people's health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level.We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users' recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user's workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico.34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion.EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities.
Bhujbal, Vaibhav; Saindane, Shashank S.; Narasaiah, M.V.R.; Murali, S.
The topography of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay site, where all major components of nuclear fuel cycle activities are located is very complex in nature. The assessment of the radiological impact, if any, due to atmospheric releases from these facilities within BARC site is being carried out by using a Local Area Network (LAN) based Radiation Early Warning System and meteorological parameters. The upgraded system is aimed at providing data during normal operation of the various facilities at site and for providing early warning to decision makers in case of any onset of an emergency. It is carried out by acquiring both on-line and off-line data on releases from the plants, the environmental radiation dose rate at selected locations and other related parameters. The monitors placed at these selected locations including strategic point around the BARC site can also help in detecting any attempt of unauthorized trafficking of the radioactive sources. This paper explains different aspects of the system operating at BARC
Hong, Y.; Adler, R.; Huffman, G.
Many governmental emergency management agencies or non-governmental organizations need real-time information on emerging disasters for preparedness and response. However, progress in warnings for hydrologic disasters has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of rainfall fluxes continuously over space and time, due largely to insufficient ground monitoring networks, long delay in data transmission and absence of data sharing protocols among many geopolitically trans-boundary basins. In addition, in-situ gauging stations are often washed away by the very floods they are designed to monitor, making reconstruction of gauges a common post-flood activity around the world. In reality, remote sensing precipitation estimates may be the only source of rainfall information available over much of the globe, particularly for vulnerable countries in the tropics where abundant extreme rain storms and severe flooding events repeat every year. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and weather radar sensors. Today, remote sensing imagery acquired and processed in real time can provide near-real-time rainfall fluxes at relatively fine spatiotemporal scales (kilometers to tens of kilometers and 30-minute to 3-hour). These new suites of rainfall products have the potential to support daily decision-making in analysis of hydrologic hazards. This talk will address several key issues, including remote sensing rainfall retrieval and data assimilation, for hydrologists to develop alternative satellite-based flood warning systems that may supplement in-situ infrastructure when conventional data sources are denied due to natural or administrative causes. This talk will also assess a module-structure global flood prediction system that has been running at real-time by integrating remote sensing forcing
Hirsch, Michael J; Murphey, Robert
Our understanding of information and information dynamics has outgrown classical information theory. This book presents the research explaining the importance of information in the evolution of a distributed or networked system. It presents techniques for measuring the value or significance of information within the context of a system
Full Text Available Nowadays, automation system become an important aspect of the manufacturing process because could make integration manufacturing process on it more effective and more efficient. PLC or Programmable Logic Controller is one kind of automation system. Many industries use PLC as automation control device in the manufacturing process to control all kind of process. For example at transportation process of coals in generator industry. Coals could be burned because main elements of coals are carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Base on this prototype early warning system design, we get the result if sensor thermocouple detects temperature larger than setpoint temperature (it is 2000C, then PLC will give an order to shut down the output, that is a belt conveyor. The result of this prototype design could use at coals transportation as an early warning system. The design of prototype early warning system could detect and prevent fire because of the consequence of burned coals until spreading of fire could be avoided.
Baeza, A; Corbacho, J A; Caballero, J M; Ontalba, M A; Vasco, J; Valencia, D
Automatic real-time warning networks are essential for the almost immediate detection of anomalous levels of radioactivity in the environment. In the case of Extremadura region (SW Spain), a radiological network (RARE) has been operational in the vicinity of the Almaraz nuclear power plant and in other areas farther away since 1992. There are ten air monitoring stations equipped with Geiger-Müller counters in order to evaluate the external ambient gamma dose rate. Four of these stations have a commercial system that provides estimates of the total artificial alpha and beta activity concentrations in aerosols, and of the 131 I activity (gaseous fraction). Despite experience having demonstrated the benefits and robustness of these commercial systems, important improvements have been made to one of these air monitoring systems. In this paper, the analytical and maintenance shortcomings of the original commercial air monitoring system are described first; the new custom-designed advanced air monitoring system is then presented. This system is based mainly on the incorporation of gamma spectrometry using two scintillation detectors, one of NaI:Tl and the other of LaBr 3 :Ce, and compact multichannel analysers. Next, a comparison made of the results provided by the two systems operating simultaneously at the same location for three months shows the advantages of the new advanced air monitoring system. As a result, the gamma spectrometry analysis allows passing from global alpha and beta activity determinations due to artificial radionuclides in aerosols, and the inaccurate measurement of the gaseous 131 I activity concentration, to the possibility of identifying a large number of radionuclides and quantifying each of their activity concentrations. Moreover, the new station's dual capacity is designed to work in early warning monitoring mode and surveillance monitoring mode. This is based on custom developed software that includes an intelligent system to issue the
Department of Transportation — Aeronautical Information System Replacement is a web-enabled, automation means for the collection and distribution of Service B messages, weather information, flight...
Full Text Available Occurring at small temporal and spatial scales, flash floods (FF can cause severe economic damages and human losses. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French Ministry in charge of Ecology has decided to set up a national FF warning system over the French territory. This automated system will be run by the SCHAPI, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting, providing warnings for fast-responding ungauged catchments (area ranging from ~10 to ~1000 km2. It will therefore be complementary to the SCHAPI’s national “vigilance” system which concerns only gauged catchments. The FF warning system to be implemented in 2017 will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014. This method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr. It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km2 resolution to reference flood quantiles of different (e.g., 2-, 10- and 50-year return periods. Therefore the system characterizes in real time the severity of ongoing events by the range of the return period estimated by AIGA at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France and takes into account the baseflow and the initial soil humidity conditions to better estimate the basin response to rainfall inputs. To meet the requirements of the future FF warning system, the AIGA method has been extended to the whole French territory (except Corsica and overseas French territories. The calibration, regionalization and validation procedures of the hydrologic model were carried out using data for ~700 hydrometric stations from the 2002-2015 period. Performance of the warning system was evaluated with various contingency criteria (e.g., probability of detection and success rate. Furthermore, specific
Fanti, Riccardo; Segoni, Samuele; Rosi, Ascanio; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Catani, Filippo
SIGMA is a regional landslide warning system that operates in the Emilia Romagna region (Italy). In this work, we depict its birth and the continuous development process, still ongoing, after over a decade of operational employ. Traditionally, landslide rainfall thresholds are defined by the empirical correspondence between a rainfall database and a landslide database. However, in the early stages of the research, a complete catalogue of dated landslides was not available. Therefore, the prototypal version of SIGMA was based on rainfall thresholds defined by means of a statistical analysis performed over the rainfall time series. SIGMA was purposely designed to take into account both shallow and deep seated landslides and it was based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of accumulated rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering. The statistical distribution of the rainfall series was analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) were used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. In the warning system, the measured and the forecasted rainfall are compared with these thresholds. Since the response of slope stability to rainfall may be complex, SIGMA is based on a decision algorithm aimed at identifying short but exceptionally intense rainfalls and mild but exceptionally prolonged rains: while the former are commonly associated with shallow landslides, the latter are mainly associated with deep-seated landslides. In the first case, the rainfall threshold is defined by high σ values and short durations (i.e. a few days); in the second case, σ values are lower but the decision algorithm checks long durations (i.e. some months). The exact definition of "high" and "low" σ values and of "short" and "long" duration varied through time according as it was adjusted during the evolution of the model. Indeed, since 2005, a constant work was carried out to gather and organize newly available data (rainfall
Isler, Robert B; Starkey, Nicola J
This study used a video-based braking simulation dual task to carry out a preliminary evaluation of the effect of a sudden brake warning system (SBWS) in a leading passenger vehicle on the response time of the following driver. The primary task required the participants (N=25, 16 females, full NZ license holders) to respond to sudden braking manoeuvres of a lead vehicle during day and night driving, wet and dry conditions and in rural and urban traffic, while concurrently performing a secondary tracking task using a computer mouse. The SBWS in the lead vehicle consisted of g-force controlled activation of the rear hazard lights (the rear indicators flashed), in addition to the standard brake lights. Overall, the results revealed that responses to the braking manoeuvres of the leading vehicles when the hazard lights were activated by the warning system were 0.34 s (19%) faster compared to the standard brake lights. The SBWS was particularly effective when the simulated braking scenario of the leading vehicle did not require an immediate and abrupt braking response. Given this, the SBWS may also be beneficial for allowing smoother deceleration, thus reducing fuel consumption. These preliminary findings justify a larger, more ecologically valid laboratory evaluation which may lead to a naturalistic study in order to test this new technology in 'real world' braking situations. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Zakhidova, D. V.; Kadyrhodjaev, A.; Scientific Team Of Hydroengeo Institute On Natural Hazards
. Combination of multidisciplinary, systematic feature, multifactorness of the account, probabilistic and statistical methods of the calculation, complex use of geological and satellite data, using modern technology processing and analysis of information - all these aspects were collected in one at proposed by authors approach to solve the question of defining the area of possible landslide activation. Proposed by authors method could be a part of the monitoring system for early warning of landslide activation. Thus, the authors propose to initialize the project “System development over the monitoring for the purpose of early warning of population from the threat of landslides”. In the process of project implementation there to be revealed such results like: 1. System of Geo-indicators in order to early warn quick-running landslide processes. 2. United interconnected system for remote, surface and underground types of observations over Geo-indicators. 3. Notification system of population about forthcoming threat by means of alerts, light signals, mobilization of municipalities and related ministries. In the result of project implementation there considered to reveal economic, technical, and social outputs.
Full Text Available For firefighters and rescuers, the disaster relief works are difficulty performed in the tunnels because of their constricted space. To reduce the losses of accident, the safety of tunnels and factories should be ordinarily kept under surveillance. Hence, a multisensor based smart tracked vehicle is designed for the application of autonomous detection and surveillance in this paper. Besides, multisensors, communication modules, wireless cameras, an electronic compass, and a GPS module are installed in the vehicle. The key feature is the integration of disaster detection and warning systems so that the vehicle can move autonomously. Furthermore, a LabVIEW graphical programming software is applied to design a human machine interface (HMI and integrate all systems such that the vehicle can be guided by High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSHPA based remote control. Moreover, basic stamp microcontrollers are utilized as its control kernel such that the remote monitoring and control system (RMCS can be constructed successfully.
Huang, Chi-Fang; Lin, Jen-Hung
For providing an automatic warning system of running-out of injection fluid, RFID technology is applied in this work to propose an infrastructure with low cost to help nurses and patient's company. Specially, a RFID tag is designed and attached on a bag of intravenous drip to demonstrate the benefits in the present system. The main idea of this system is that, tag is disabled when the bag is not empty because of the EM loading due to the liquid contained. The bag can be any kind in the current market and be without any electronic attachment or modification. LAN (Local Area Network) is also applied as a part of this infrastructure for data transmission.
Full Text Available The last decade has witnessed the development of a vast literature devoted to the study of several phenomena like banking crises or episodes of vulnerability and distress, characterized by inadequate capitalization, impairment of the asset quality and of the credit institutions' rating. The purpose of this study is to design an early warning system in order to highlight at an earlier stage the likelihood of deterioration of the Romanian banking system credit portfolio's quality. We have applied an econometric model which constitutes a reference for this type of analysis, having as purpose the identification of a significant correlation between increasing weight of bad loans in total assets, on the one hand, and a number of macroeconomic variables and indicators of the banking system, on the other hand.
Piovani, Duccio; Grujić, Jelena; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft
We analyse in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems by application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology and high dimensional replicator systems with a stochastic element. A high dimensional stability matrix is derived in the mean field approximation to the stochastic dynamics. This allows us to determine the stability spectrum about the observed quasi-stable configurations. From overlap of the instantaneous configuration vector of the full stochastic system with the eigenvectors of the unstable directions of the deterministic mean field approximation, we are able to construct a good early-warning indicator of the transitions occurring intermittently. (paper)
Liu, Yung-Ching; Jhuang, Jing-Wun
A driving simulator study was conducted to evaluate the effects of five in-vehicle warning information displays upon drivers' emergent response and decision performance. These displays include visual display, auditory displays with and without spatial compatibility, hybrid displays in both visual and auditory format with and without spatial compatibility. Thirty volunteer drivers were recruited to perform various tasks that involved driving, stimulus-response, divided attention and stress rating. Results show that for displays of single-modality, drivers benefited more when coping with visual display of warning information than auditory display with or without spatial compatibility. However, auditory display with spatial compatibility significantly improved drivers' performance in reacting to the divided attention task and making accurate S-R task decision. Drivers' best performance results were obtained for hybrid display with spatial compatibility. Hybrid displays enabled drivers to respond the fastest and achieve the best accuracy in both S-R and divided attention tasks. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.
The chapter gives an introduction to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with particular focus on their application within environmental management.......The chapter gives an introduction to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with particular focus on their application within environmental management....
Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier
Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315
Full Text Available An integrated flood forecasting system adapted to mountain basins is under construction at the flood forecasting service of the French Northern Alps (SPCAN, whose jurisdiction area covers the whole Isère River basin (12000km2. Most parts of this area are harnessed for hydropower production, thus modifying flows at all the main sections of the stream network. A semi-distributed conceptual modeling approach was chosen for predicting warning levels at daily time step. Before giving results on the strategic warning point of Montmèlian, simulations on two representative sub-basins of about 1000 km2 are detailed. The first sub-basin includes the large Sautet dam, on the Drac River. The second, on the Isère River, includes the large dam of Tignes and is characterized by multiple diversions. The influence of hydroelectric facilities was analyzed for reconstituting natural flows. Then, a two-steps modeling strategy was deployed: firstly, natural reconstituted flows were simulated; next, the effect of hydroelectric works was introduced, considering the operating status of the main reservoirs and of the water intakes, the latter being aggregated together as a unique equivalent device. While keeping a reasonable level of model complexity, the developed tool provides accurate simulations of observed flood events and is planned to be further used in real-time.
Simpson, Sue; Hyde, Chris; Cook, Alison; Packer, Claire; Stevens, Andrew
Early warning systems are an integral part of many health technology assessment programs. Despite this finding, to date, there have been no quantitative evaluations of the accuracy of predictions made by these systems. We report a study evaluating the accuracy of predictions made by the main United Kingdom early warning system. As prediction of impact is analogous to diagnosis, a method normally applied to determine the accuracy of diagnostic tests was used. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the National Horizon Scanning Centre's prediction methods were estimated with reference to an (imperfect) gold standard, that is, expert opinion of impact 3 to 5 years after prediction. The sensitivity of predictions was 71 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.92), and the specificity was 73 percent (95 percent CI, 0.64-0.8). The negative predictive value was 98 percent (95 percent CI, 0.92-0.99), and the positive predictive value was 14 percent (95 percent CI, 0.06-0.3). Forecasting is difficult, but the results suggest that this early warning system's predictions have an acceptable level of accuracy. However, there are caveats. The first is that early warning systems may themselves reduce the impact of a technology, as helping to control adoption and diffusion is their main purpose. The second is that the use of an imperfect gold standard may bias the results. As early warning systems are viewed as an increasingly important component of health technology assessment and decision making, their outcomes must be evaluated. The method used here should be investigated further and the accuracy of other early warning systems explored.
Department of Transportation — The Airports Geographic Information System maintains the airport and aeronautical data required to meet the demands of the Next Generation National Airspace System....
Zollo, Aldo; Colombelli, Simona; Caruso, Alessandro; Elia, Luca; Brondi, Piero; Emolo, Antonio; Festa, Gaetano; Martino, Claudio; Picozzi, Matteo
predicted P-wave amplitude at a dense spatial grid, including the nodes of the accelerometer/velocimeter array deployed in the earthquake source area. Within times of the order of ten seconds from the earthquake origin, the information about the area where moderate to strong ground shaking is expected to occur, can be sent to inner and outer sites, allowing the activation of emergency measurements to protect people , secure industrial facilities and optimize the site resilience after the disaster. Depending of the network density and spatial source coverage, this method naturally accounts for effects related to the earthquake rupture extent (e.g. source directivity) and spatial variability of strong ground motion related to crustal wave propagation and site amplification. In QuakeUp, the P-wave parameters are continuously measured, using progressively expanded P-wave time windows, and providing evolutionary and reliable estimates of the ground shaking distribution, especially in the case of very large events. Furthermore, to minimize the S-wave contamination on the P-wave signal portion, an efficient algorithm, based on the real-time polarization analysis of the three-component seismogram, for the automatic detection of the S-wave arrival time has been included. The final output of QuakeUp will be an automatic alert message that is transmitted to sites to be secured during the earthquake emergency. The message contains all relevant information about the expected potential damage at the site and the time available for security actions (lead-time) after the warning. A global view of the system performance during and after the event (in play-back mode) is obtained through an end-user visual display, where the most relevant pieces of information will be displayed and updated as soon as new data are available. The software platform Quake-Up is essentially aimed at improving the reliability and the accuracy in terms of parameter estimation, minimizing the uncertainties in the
Rosczyk, S.; Hauf, T.; Leifeld, C.
In-flight icing is one of the most hazardous problems in aviation. It was determined as contributing factor in more than 800 incidents worldwide. And though the meteorological factors of airframe icing become more and more transparent, they have to be integrated into the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) certification rules first. Therefore best way to enhance aviational safety is to know the areas of dangerous icing conditions in order to prevent flying in them. For this reason the German Weather Service (DWD), the Institute for Atmospheric Physics at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (ImuK) of the University of Hanover started developingADWICE - theAdvanced Diagnosis and Warning system for aircraft ICing Environments - in 1998. This algorithm is based on the DWDLocal Model (LM) forecast of temperature and humidity, in fusion with radar and synop and, coming soon, satellite data. It gives an every-hour nowcast of icing severity and type - divided into four categories: freezing rain, convective, stratiform and general - for the middle European area. A first validation of ADWICE took place in 1999 with observational data from an in-flight icing campaign during EURICE in 1997. The momentary validation deals with a broader database. As first step the output from ADWICE is compared to observations from pilots (PIREPs) to get a statistic of the probability of detecting icing and either no-icing conditions within the last icing-seasons. There were good results of this method with the AmericanIntegrated Icing Diagnostic Algorithm (IIDA). A problem though is the small number of PIREPs from Europe in comparison to the US. So a temporary campaign of pilots (including Lufthansa and Aerolloyd) collecting cloud and icing information every few miles is intended to solve this unpleasant situation. Another source of data are the measurements of theFalcon - a DLR research aircraft carrying an icing sensor. In addition to that
Valentijn, E.; Belikov, A. N.
The Lofar Information System is a solution for Lofar Long Term Archive that is capable to store and handle PBs of raw and processed data. The newly created information system is based on Astro-WISE - the information system for wide field astronomy. We review an adaptation of Astro-WISE for the new
Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen
Ramgopal, Sriram; Thome-Souza, Sigride; Jackson, Michele; Kadish, Navah Ester; Sánchez Fernández, Iván; Klehm, Jacquelyn; Bosl, William; Reinsberger, Claus; Schachter, Steven; Loddenkemper, Tobias
Nearly one-third of patients with epilepsy continue to have seizures despite optimal medication management. Systems employed to detect seizures may have the potential to improve outcomes in these patients by allowing more tailored therapies and might, additionally, have a role in accident and SUDEP prevention. Automated seizure detection and prediction require algorithms which employ feature computation and subsequent classification. Over the last few decades, methods have been developed to detect seizures utilizing scalp and intracranial EEG, electrocardiography, accelerometry and motion sensors, electrodermal activity, and audio/video captures. To date, it is unclear which combination of detection technologies yields the best results, and approaches may ultimately need to be individualized. This review presents an overview of seizure detection and related prediction methods and discusses their potential uses in closed-loop warning systems in epilepsy. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Pinto, Augusto; Saeed, Mubarak; El Sakka, Hammam; Rashford, Adrienne; Colombo, Alessandro; Valenciano, Marta; Sabatinelli, Guido
In April-May 2004, the World Health Organization (WHO) implemented, with local authorities, United Nations (UN) agencies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), an early warning system (EWS) in Darfur, West Sudan, for internally displaced persons (IDPs). The number of consultations and deaths per week for 12 health events is recorded for two age groups (less than five years and five years and above). Thresholds are used to detect potential outbreaks. Ten weeks after the introduction of the system, NGOs were covering 54 camps, and 924,281 people (IDPs and the host population). Of these 54 camps, 41 (76%) were reporting regularly under the EWS. Between 22 May and 30 July, 179,795 consultations were reported: 18.7% for acute respiratory infections; 15% for malaria; 8.4% for bloody diarrhoea; and 1% for severe acute malnutrition. The EWS is useful for detecting outbreaks and monitoring the number of consultations required to trigger actions, but not for estimating mortality.
Obermayer, Richard W.; Nugent, William A.
The SPAWAR Systems Center San Diego is currently developing an advanced Multi-Modal Watchstation (MMWS); design concepts and software from this effort are intended for transition to future United States Navy surface combatants. The MMWS features multiple flat panel displays and several modes of user interaction, including voice input and output, natural language recognition, 3D audio, stylus and gestural inputs. In 1999, an extensive literature review was conducted on basic and applied research concerned with alerting and warning systems. After summarizing that literature, a human computer interaction (HCI) designer's guide was prepared to support the design of an attention allocation subsystem (AAS) for the MMWS. The resultant HCI guidelines are being applied in the design of a fully interactive AAS prototype. An overview of key findings from the literature review, a proposed design methodology with illustrative examples, and an assessment of progress made in implementing the HCI designers guide are presented.
Li, Weifeng; Ling, Wencui; Liu, Suoxiang; Zhao, Jing; Liu, Ruiping; Chen, Qiuwen; Qiang, Zhimin; Qu, Jiuhui
Water leakage in drinking water distribution systems is a serious problem for many cities and a huge challenge for water utilities. An integrated system for the detection, early warning, and control of pipeline leakage has been developed and successfully used to manage the pipeline networks in selected areas of Beijing. A method based on the geographic information system has been proposed to quickly and automatically optimize the layout of the instruments which detect leaks. Methods are also proposed to estimate the probability of each pipe segment leaking (on the basis of historic leakage data), and to assist in locating the leakage points (based on leakage signals). The district metering area (DMA) strategy is used. Guidelines and a flowchart for establishing a DMA to manage the large-scale looped networks in Beijing are proposed. These different functions have been implemented into a central software system to simplify the day-to-day use of the system. In 2007 the system detected 102 non-obvious leakages (i.e., 14.2% of the total detected in Beijing) in the selected areas, which was estimated to save a total volume of 2,385,000 m3 of water. These results indicate the feasibility, efficiency and wider applicability of this system.
José Luis de Castro Ruano
Full Text Available This article analyses and evaluates the Basque Parliament’s participation in the EU’s Early Warning System (EWS for checking the application of the subsidiarity principle in the EU’s legislative process. The Early Warning System is an instrument created by the Lisbon Treaty (signed in 2007 and in force since 2009 to safeguard the subsidiarity principle. One of its most interesting innovations is that it facilitates the participation of regional parliaments in the control of the subsidiarity principle. Two years after its introduction, the Basque Parliament is one of the most active regional actors in this regard.
Starr, Stan; Sharp, David; Merceret, Francis; Madura, John; Murphy, Martin
NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high precision lightning location system to provide lightning related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning-sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations [45th Weather Squadron, U. S. Air Force (USAF)] where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 MHz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. NASA and Global Atmospherics, Inc. are developing a new system that will replace the unique LDAR components with commercially available and maintainable components having improved capabilities. These components will be phased in to ensure full continuity and access to this important warning technology. These LDAR systems are expected to eventually be available for installation and use by the public at specialized facilities, such as airports, and for general weather warnings via the National Weather Service (NWS) or television broadcast. The NWS in Melbourne has had access to real-time LDAR data since 1993 on an experimental basis. This use of LDAR has shown promise for the improvement of aviation forecasts and severe weather warnings. More so, it has opened the door to investigate the feasibility of issuing lightning-related public advisories. The success of its early use suggests that this technology may improve safety and potentially save lives, therefore constituting a significant benefit to the public. This paper describes the LDR system, the plans and progress of these upgrades, and the potential benefits of its use.
Bruce, Mary; Bridgeland, John M.; Fox, Joanna Hornig; Balfanz, Robert
Over the past decade, schools, districts, and states have become increasingly savvy with data collection and analysis to drive student outcomes. The development and use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems (EWS) are at the cutting edge of the data- driven, outcomes-focused, high-impact education movement. These systems can increase…
Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.
This RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) experiment will demonstrate the use of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission) sensor data as significant input to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) ICON/ CREWS (Integrated Coral Reef Observation System/Coral Reef Early Warning System). The project affects the Coastal Management Program Element of the Applied Sciences Program.
Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang
Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pclimate variables. Comparing the four multivariate models(i.e.1, 4, 9 and 13 weeks ahead), we found that including the climate variables improves the prediction RMSE as high as 3.24%, 10.39%, 17.96%, 21.81% respectively, in contrast to univariate models. Furthermore, the ability of the four multivariate models to determine whether the epidemic threshold would be exceeded in any given week during the forecasting period of 2010-2015 was
John Sweller; Susan Sweller
Natural information processing systems such as biological evolution and human cognition organize information used to govern the activities of natural entities. When dealing with biologically secondary information, these systems can be specified by five common principles that we propose underlie natural information processing systems. The principles equate: (1) human long-term memory with a genome; (2) learning from other humans with biological reproduction; (3) problem solving through random ...
Developing countries need mechanisms by which the information they generate themselves and development information from the rest of the world can be retrieved. The international cooperative information system is such a mechanism. Delegates to the Seminar on International Cooperative Information Systems were informed about various existing systems (INIS, AGRIS, INFOTERRA, TCDC/INRES, POPIN, DEVSIS, and INPADROC), some specialized information systems and services (CDS/ISIS and the Cassava Information Centre), and computer programs for information processing (INIS/AGRIS, CDS/ISIS, and MINISIS). The participants suggested some changes that should be made on both the national and the international levels to ensure that these systems meet the needs of developing countries more effectively. (LL)
The basic concepts, structure, and operation of the Agency Safeguards Information System is discussed with respect to its role in accomplishing the overall objectives of safeguards. The basis and purposes of the Agency's information system, the structure and flow of information within the Agency's system, the relationship of the components is the Agency system, the requirements of Member States in respect of their reporting to the Agency, and the relationship of accounting data vis-a-vis facility and inspection data are described
Jensen, Claus Sixtus; Nielsen, Pia Bonde; Olesen, Hanne Vebert
PURPOSE: Pediatric early warning score (PEWS) systems are used to monitor pediatric patients' vital signs and facilitate the treatment of patients at risk of deteriorating. The aim of this study was to gain knowledge about nurses' experiences with PEWS and to highlight factors facilitating...... and impeding the use of PEWS tools in clinical practice. DESIGN AND METHODS: An exploratory qualitative design was chosen using focus group interviews to gain a deeper understanding of nurses' experiences with PEWS. A total of five focus group interviews were conducted at three hospitals, and a qualitative......'s - a challenge, v) PEWS helps to visualize the need for escalating care, vi) an inflexible and challenging tool, and vii) supportive tools enhance the nurses' experiences of PEWS positively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that attention should be given to nurses' perceptions of how both clinical judgment...
Spruce, Joseph P.
This viewgraph presentation reviews the contributions by the Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) towards using Visible Infrared Imager / Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data in assessing the damage to forests. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandates development of national Early Warning System (EWS) for forest threat monitoring and mitigation. NASA Stennis is working with the US Forest Service to develop needed components of this EWS. The use of MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales is a componet of this program. This RPC experiment was initiated to assess potential of the MODIS follow-on, VIIRS, for monitoring forest disturbance at broad scales and thereby contributing to the EWS. This presentation reviews the potential use of the VIIRS to examine the damage to forests caused by gyspy moths in the West Virginia and Virginia area.
Information is provided on technological and social trends as background for a workshop designed to heighten the consciousness of workers in community information systems. Initially, the basic terminology is considered in its implications for an integrated perspective of community information systems, with particular attention given to the meaning…
Asif, Muhammad; Krogstie, John
Purpose: A mobile student information system (MSIS) based on mobile computing and context-aware application concepts can provide more user-centric information services to students. The purpose of this paper is to describe a system for providing relevant information to students on a mobile platform. Design/methodology/approach: The research…
Metaphors are useful because they are efficient: they transfer a complex of meaning in a few words. Information systems are social constructs. Therefore, metaphors seem to be especially useful for explaining the space of possible meaning complexes or designs of information systems. Three information
Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.
The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.
Full Text Available Indonesia is located along the most prominent active continental margin in the Indian Ocean, the so-called Sunda Arc and, therefore, is one of the most threatened regions of the world in terms of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis. On 26 December 2004 the third largest earthquake ever instrumentally recorded (magnitude 9.3, Stein and Okal, 2005 occurred off-shore northern Sumatra and triggered a mega-tsunami affecting the whole Indian Ocean. Almost a quarter of a million people were killed, as the region was not prepared either in terms of early-warning or in terms of disaster response.
In order to be able to provide, in future, a fast and reliable warning procedure for the population, Germany, immediately after the catastrophe, offered during the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Hyogo/Japan in January 2005 technical support for the development and installation of a tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean in addition to assistance in capacity building in particular for local communities. This offer was accepted by Indonesia but also by other countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives and some East-African countries. Anyhow the main focus of our activities has been carried out in Indonesia as the main source of tsunami threat for the entire Indian Ocean. Challenging for the technical concept of this warning system are the extremely short warning times for Indonesia, due to its vicinity to the Sunda Arc. For this reason the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS integrates different modern and new scientific monitoring technologies and analysis methods.
Ulslev Pedersen, Rasmus; Kühn Pedersen, Mogens
such as medical and manufacturing. These new sensor applications have implications for information systems (IS) and, the authors visualize this new class of information systems as fractals growing from an established class of systems; namely that of information systems (IS). The identified applications...... and implications are used as an empirical basis for creating a model for these small new information systems. Such sensor systems are called embedded systems in the technical sciences, and the authors want to couple it with general IS. They call the merger of these two important research areas (IS and embedded...... systems) for micro information systems (micro-IS). It is intended as a new research field within IS research. An initial framework model is established, which seeks to capture both the possibilities and constraints of this new paradigm, while looking simultaneously at the fundamental IS and ICT aspects...
Burgin, Laura; Sanders, Christopher; Carpenter, Simon; Mellor, Philip; Gloster, John
Since 2006 northern Europe has been in the midst of an extensive epidemic of the animal disease, Bluetongue, which has cost the European economy hundreds of millions of euros due to death, sickness and movement restrictions of livestock. Bluetongue is spread by biting midges which can be carried for hundreds of kilometers on the wind. A scheme within the UK Met Office's dispersion model, the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), has been developed to reflect the effects of meteorology on the long-distance transport of these midge vectors. The scheme is based on data from field and laboratory experiments carried out at the Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright. From these experiments, certain threshold values which define when midges do not become airborne have been obtained for several meteorological variables. Within NAME, particles representing midges are removed from the model atmosphere if these thresholds are exceeded. Following outbreaks of the disease in Belgium and the Netherlands in 2006, an early-warning website was developed based on the model, to provide the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) advance knowledge of potential disease incursions by infected midges carried on the wind across the English Channel. The service has been in daily operation since April 2007 and correctly warned of the high risk of an incursion of infected midges causing the first UK outbreak in Suffolk on 4 August 2007. The website has since been expanded to predict potential incursions of disease into the Channel Islands and Northern Ireland and was used to inform on vaccination policy decisions by Defra and the Scottish government.
Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe
Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of
Sarupria, J.S.; Kunte, P.D.
The nature of oceanographic data and the management of inventory level information are described in Integrated Inventory Information System (IIIS). It is shown how a ROSCOPO (report on observations/samples collected during oceanographic programme...
Blume, Steffen O P; Sansavini, Giovanni
Complex dynamical systems face abrupt transitions into unstable and catastrophic regimes. These critical transitions are triggered by gradual modifications in stressors, which push the dynamical system towards unstable regimes. Bifurcation analysis can characterize such critical thresholds, beyond which systems become unstable. Moreover, the stochasticity of the external stressors causes small-scale fluctuations in the system response. In some systems, the decomposition of these signal fluctuations into precursor signals can reveal early warning signs prior to the critical transition. Here, we present a dynamical analysis of a power system subjected to an increasing load level and small-scale stochastic load perturbations. We show that the auto- and cross-correlations of bus voltage magnitudes increase, leading up to a Hopf bifurcation point, and further grow until the system collapses. This evidences a gradual transition into a state of "critical coupling," which is complementary to the established concept of "critical slowing down." Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the type of load perturbation and load characteristics on early warning signs and find that gradient changes in the autocorrelation provide early warning signs of the imminent critical transition under white-noise but not for auto-correlated load perturbations. Furthermore, the cross-correlation between all voltage magnitude pairs generally increases prior to and beyond the Hopf bifurcation point, indicating "critical coupling," but cannot provide early warning indications. Finally, we show that the established early warning indicators are oblivious to limit-induced bifurcations and, in the case of the power system model considered here, only react to an approaching Hopf bifurcation.
Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing
surface model-flood inundation model to produce hydrological variables and indices at daily, 0.25-degree resolution, globally. The system is updated in near real-time (products from the system include real-time and forecast drought indices for precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, and flood magnitude and extent indices. The model outputs are complemented by satellite based products and indices based on satellite data for vegetation health (MODIS NDVI) and soil moisture (SMAP). We show examples of the validation of the system at regional scales, including how local information can significantly improve predictions, and examples of how the system can be used to understand large-scale water resource issues, and in real-world contexts for early warning, decision making and planning.
Lemmond, Tracy D; Hanley, William G; Guensche, Joseph Wendell; Perry, Nathan C; Nitao, John J; Kidwell, Paul Brandon; Boakye, Kofi Agyeman; Glaser, Ron E; Prenger, Ryan James
An information extraction system and methods of operating the system are provided. In particular, an information extraction system for performing meta-extraction of named entities of people, organizations, and locations as well as relationships and events from text documents are described herein.
Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim
The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)  is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In conjunction with the Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element (-DE)  these data formats can be used for warning message dissemination in early warning systems for natural hazards. Application took place in the DEWS (Distance Early Warning System)  project where CAP serves as central message format containing both human readable warnings and structured data for automatic processing by message receivers. In particular the spatial reference capabilities are of paramount importance both in CAP and EDXL. Affected areas are addressable via geo codes like HASC (Hierarchical Administrative Subdivision Codes)  or UN/LOCODE  but also with arbitrary polygons that can be directly generated out of GML . For each affected area standardized criticality values (urgency, severity and certainty) have to be set but also application specific key-value-pairs like estimated time of arrival or maximum inundation height can be specified. This enables - together with multilingualism, message aggregation and message conversion for different dissemination channels - the generation of user-specific tailored warning messages.  CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap  EDXL-DE, http://docs.oasis-open.org/emergency/edxl-de/v1.0/EDXL-DE_Spec_v1.0.pdf  DEWS, http://www.dews-online.org  HASC, "Administrative Subdivisions of Countries: A Comprehensive World Reference, 1900 Through 1998" ISBN 0-7864-0729-8  UN/LOCODE, http://www.unece.org/cefact/codesfortrade/codes_index.htm  GML, http://www.opengeospatial.org/standards/gml
Blumstein, Carl [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Cibulka, Lloyd [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Thorp, James [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Centeno, Virgilio [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); King, Roger [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Reeves, Kari [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Ashrafi, Frank [Southern California Edison Co., Rosemead, CA (United States); Madani, Vahid [Pacific Gas & Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)
Recent blackouts of power systems in North America and throughout the world have shown how critical a reliable power system is to modern societies, and the enormous economic and societal damage a blackout can cause. It has been noted that unanticipated operation of protection systems can contribute to cascading phenomena and, ultimately, blackouts. This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second method detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers.
Ifedapo Abdullahi, Salami; Hadi Habaebi, Mohamed; Surya Gunawan, Teddy; Rafiqul Islam, MD
This study presents the performance of a prototype miniaturised water flow and water level monitoring sensor designed towards supporting flood disaster early warning systems. The design involved selection of sensors, coding to control the system mechanism, and automatic data logging and storage. During the design phase, the apparatus was constructed where all the components were assembled using locally sourced items. Subsequently, under controlled laboratory environment, the system was tested by running water through the inlet during which the flow rate and rising water levels are automatically recorded and stored in a database via Microsoft Excel using Coolterm software. The system is simulated such that the water level readings measured in centimeters is output in meters using a multiplicative of 10. A total number of 80 readings were analyzed to evaluate the performance of the system. The result shows that the system is sensitive to water level rise and yielded accurate measurement of water level. But, the flow rate fluctuates due to the manual water supply that produced inconsistent flow. It was also observed that the flow sensor has a duty cycle of 50% of operating time under normal condition which implies that the performance of the flow sensor is optimal.
Study of the capability for rapid warnings of solar flare radiation hazards to aircraft. Part I. Forecasts and warnings of solar flare radiation hazards. Part II. An FAA polar flight solar cosmic radiation forecast/warning communication system study. Technical memo
Sauer, H.H.; Stonehocker, G.H.
The first part of the report provides background information on the occurrence of solar activity and the consequent sporadic production of electromagnetic and particle emissions from the sun. A summary is given of the current procedures for the forecasting of solar activity together with procedures used to verify these forecasts as currently available. A summary of current forecasting of radiation hazards as provided in support of the Concorde SST program is also given. The second part of the report describes a forecast message distribution system developed in conjunction with solar cosmic radiation forecasts and warnings of the Space Environment Laboratory of NOAA for the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Office of Aviation Medicine. The study analyzes the currently available and future aeronautical telecommunication system facilities to determine an optimum system to distribute forecasts to the preflight planning centers in the international flight service stations for polar-flying subsonic and supersonic transport (SST) type aircraft. Also recommended for the system are timely and reliable distribution of warnings to individual in-flight aircraft in polar areas by the responsible air traffic control authority
Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.
Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.
Research on management information systems is illusive in many respects. Part of the basic research problem in MIS stems from the absence of standard...decision making. But the transition from these results to the realization of ’satisfactory’ management information systems remains difficult indeed. The...paper discusses several aspects of research on management information systems and reviews a selection of efforts that appear significant for future progress. (Author)
The nationalities universities and colleges set up the crisis pre-warning management system, not only related to the management of our nationalities universities and colleges and their growth, but also related to the country's national unity plan in some way. However, because of minority students in the particularity of the national cultural…
Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov
The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…
Data Quality Campaign, 2012
Supporting early warning systems is important because keeping students on track is vital to graduating all students college and career ready. Failing to keep students on track toward completing high school has perilous consequences for students, communities, and the economy. Predictive analyses are important to ensuring students are on track.…
Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.
Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash is a fundamental goal in order to mitigate its potential impact on urbanized areas and transport routes surrounding explosive volcanoes. To this aim we developed an early- warning procedure named MAFALDA (Modeling And Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere). Such tool is able to quantitatively forecast the atmospheric concentration of ash as well as the ground deposition as a function of time over a 3D spatial domain.\\The main features of MAFALDA are: (1) the use of the hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian code VOL-CALPUFF able to describe both the rising column phase and the atmospheric dispersal as a function of weather conditions, (2) the use of high-resolution weather forecasting data, (3) the short execution time that allows to analyse a set of scenarios and (4) the web-based CGI software application (written in Perl programming language) that shows the results in a standard graphical web interface and makes it suitable as an early-warning system during volcanic crises.\\MAFALDA is composed by a computational part that simulates the ash cloud dynamics and a graphical interface for visualizing the modelling results. The computational part includes the codes for elaborating the meteorological data, the dispersal code and the post-processing programs. These produces hourly 2D maps of aerial ash concentration at several vertical levels, extension of "threat" area on air and 2D maps of ash deposit on the ground, in addition to graphs of hourly variations of column height.\\The processed results are available on the web by the graphical interface and the users can choose, by drop-down menu, which data to visualize. \\A first partial application of the procedure has been carried out for Mt. Etna (Italy). In this case, the procedure simulates four volcanological scenarios characterized by different plume intensities and uses 48-hrs weather forecasting data with a resolution of 7 km provided by the Italian Air Force.
Full Text Available Indonesia has an Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purpose of this study is to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor Sea, Banda Sea, Arafura Sea and Pacific Ocean using a direct procedure and software developed Lomax and Michelini for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential by deriving two simple measures from vertical component broadband P-wave velocity record. The first is the high-frequency apparent rupture duration, Tdur which may be related to can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L, depth (z, and shear modulus (μ. The second is a confirmation of the earlier finding by Lomax and Michelini, namely that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and Depth. We analyzed at least 510 vertical seismogram recorded by GEOFON-IA and IRIS-DMC networks. Our analysis shows that the seismic potency, LWD, which is more obviously related to capability to generate a tsunami than former. The larger Tdur the larger is the seismic potency LWD because Tdur is proportional to L/vr (with vr – rupture velocity. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 3 to 8 min after the P-onset.
Sheffield, A. M.
After more than 5 years of drought, extreme precipitation brought drought relief in California and Nevada and presents an opportunity to reflect upon lessons learned while planning for the future. NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) in June 2017 convened a regional coordination workshop to provide a forum to discuss and build upon past drought efforts in the region and increase coordination, collaboration and information sharing across the region as a whole. Participants included federal, tribal, state, academic, and local partners who provided a post-mortem on the recent drought and impacts as well as recent innovations in drought monitoring, forecasts, and decision support tools in response to the historic drought. This presentation will highlight lessons learned from stakeholder outreach and engagement around flooding during drought, and pathways for moving forward coordination and collaboration in the region. Additional focus will be on the potential opportunities from examining California decision making calendars from this drought. Identified gaps and challenges will also be shared, such as the need to connect observations with social impacts, capacity building around available tools and resources, and future drought monitoring needs. Drought will continue to impact California and Nevada, and the CA-NV DEWS works to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.
Hloupis, George; Stavrakas, Ilias; Triantis, Dimos
Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are one of the emerging areas that received great attention during the last few years. This is mainly due to the fact that WSNs have provided scientists with the capability of developing real-time monitoring systems equipped with sensors based on Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS). WSNs have great potential for many applications in environmental monitoring since the sensor nodes that comprised from can host several MEMS sensors (such as temperature, humidity, inertial, pressure, strain-gauge) and transducers (such as position, velocity, acceleration, vibration). The resulting devices are small and inexpensive but with limited memory and computing resources. Each sensor node contains a sensing module which along with an RF transceiver. The communication is broadcast-based since the network topology can change rapidly due to node failures . Sensor nodes can transmit their measurements to central servers through gateway nodes without any processing or they make preliminary calculations locally in order to produce results that will be sent to central servers . Based on the above characteristics, two prototypes using WSNs are presented in this paper: A Landslide detection system and a Flood warning system. Both systems sent their data to central processing server where the core of processing routines exists. Transmission is made using Zigbee and IEEE 802.11b protocol but is capable to use VSAT communication also. Landslide detection system uses structured network topology. Each measuring node comprises of a columnar module that is half buried to the area under investigation. Each sensing module contains a geophone, an inclinometer and a set of strain gauges. Data transmitted to central processing server where possible landslide evolution is monitored. Flood detection system uses unstructured network topology since the failure rate of sensor nodes is expected higher. Each sensing module contains a custom water level sensor
Kohler, Monica D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Neuhauser, Doug; Hensen, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Bodin, Paul; Kress, Victor; Thompson, Stephen; Felizardo, Claude; Brody, Jeff; Bhadha, Rayo; Schwarz, Stan
Earthquake early warning (EEW) is an application of seismological science that can give people, as well as mechanical and electrical systems, up to tens of seconds to take protective actions before peak earthquake shaking arrives at a location. Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in collaboration with several partners to develop EEW for the United States. The goal is to create and operate an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the highest risk areas of the United States, starting with the West Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. In early 2016, the Production Prototype v.1.0 was established for California; then, in early 2017, v.1.2 was established for the West Coast, with earthquake notifications being distributed to a group of beta users in California, Oregon, and Washington. The new ShakeAlert Production Prototype was an outgrowth from an earlier demonstration EEW system that began sending test notifications to selected users in California in January 2012. ShakeAlert leverages the considerable physical, technical, and organizational earthquake monitoring infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System, a nationwide federation of cooperating seismic networks. When fully implemented, the ShakeAlert system may reduce damage and injury caused by large earthquakes, improve the nation’s resilience, and speed recovery.
Vesterbacka, K.; Lahtinen, J.; Ilander, T. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Research and Environmental Surveillance, Helsinki (Finland)
The Finnish early warning system for nuclear emergencies consists of the nation-wide automatic external dose-rate monitoring network and the control system, which is known as USVA. The monitoring network comprises of approx. 300 AAM95 central stations and substations equipped with RD-02 or RD-02L GM tubes. Stations are thoroughly inspected on a routine basis every 4-5 years. During the inspection the GM tube, battery and power adapters of the station are replaced with new ones, as is also the modem if necessary, and the alarm connections to USVA are tested. The USVA system utilizes advanced www technology (including a browser-based, easy-to-use user interface) and a network of PCs with dedicated tasks. USVA's central hardware is located at STUK. USVA began its operation in the beginning of the year 2000, replacing the older y2k incompatible system. In a routine situation, USVA collects the monitoring data once a day. The USVA is capable of connecting (via telephone lines) to eight AAM stations concurrently, and the results from the whole country are obtained in about 15 minutes. When the system receives an alarm message from the network, it sends a text message to the mobile phones defined in a separate list and starts an automatic data collection procedure at all the stations situated within a certain distance (100 km) from the alarm-causing station. (orig.)
Bye, B. L.; Plag, H.
Science permeates our society. Its role and its perceived importance evolves with time. Scientists today are highly specialized, yet society demands they master a variety of skills requiring not only a number of different competencies but also a broad mindset. Scientists are subjected to a meritocracy in terms of having to produce scientific papers. Peer-reviewed scientific publications used to be sufficient to meet the various laws and regulations with respect to dissemination of scientific results. This has dramatically changed; both expressed directly through public voices (such as in the climate change discourses), but also by politicians and policy makers. In some countries research funding now comes with specific requirements concerning public outreach that go way beyond peer-reviewed publications and presentation at scientific conferences. Science policies encourage multidisciplinary cooperation and scientific questions themselves often cannot be answered without knowledge and information from several scientific areas. Scientists increasingly need to communicate knowledge and results in more general terms as well as educating future generations. A huge challenge lies in developing the knowledge, human capacity and mindset that will allow an individual academician to contribute to education, communicate across scientific fields and sectors in multidisciplinary cross sectoral cooperations and also reach out to the general public while succeeding within the scientific meritocracy. We demonstrate how research, education and communication within and outside academia can effectively be combined through a presentation of the International Airways Volcano Watch that encompasses an operational volcanic ash warning system for the aviation industry. This presentation will show the role of science throughout the information flow, from basic science to the pilots' decision-making. Furthermore, it will illustrate how one can connect specific scientific topics to societal
Berg, R. F.; Holcomb, J. E.; Kelroy, E. A.; Levine, D. A.; Mee, C., III
Generalized information storage and retrieval system capable of generating and maintaining a file, gathering statistics, sorting output, and generating final reports for output is reviewed. File generation and file maintenance programs written for the system are general purpose routines.
Department of Transportation — The Integrated Reporting Information System (IRIS) is a flexible and scalable web-based system that supports post operational analysis and evaluation of the National...
Sajtakova, E.; Spisakova, K.
In this presentation the Slovak National Emission Information System (NEIS) is presented. The NEIS represents hierarchical oriented modular system of acquisition, verification, saving and reporting of data about annual emissions and payments for pollution of atmosphere
Brooks, Cynthia L.
Airport Surface Movement Area is but one of the actions taken to increase the capacity and safety of existing airport facilities. The System Integration Branch (SIB) has designed an integrated system consisting of an electronic moving display in the cockpit, and includes display of taxi routes which will warn controllers and pilots of the position of other traffic and warning information automatically. Although, this system has in test simulation proven to be accurate and helpful; the initial process of obtaining an airport layout of the taxi-routes and designing each of them is a very tedious and time-consuming process. Other methods of preparing the display maps are being researched. One such method is the use of the Geographical Information System (GIS). GIS is an integrated system of computer hardware and software linking topographical, demographic and other resource data that is being referenced. The software can support many areas of work with virtually unlimited information compatibility due to the system's open architecture. GIS will allow us to work faster with increased efficiency and accuracy while providing decision making capabilities. GIS is currently being used at the Langley Research Center with other applications and has been validated as an accurate system for that task. GIS usage for our task will involve digitizing aerial photographs of the topology for each taxi-runway and identifying each position according to its specific spatial coordinates. The information currently being used can be integrated with the GIS system, due to its ability to provide a wide variety of user interfaces. Much more research and data analysis will be needed before this technique will be used, however we are hopeful this will lead to better usage of man-power and technological capabilities for the future.
Xuefeng, W.; Zhongyuan, H.; Gongli, L.; Li, Z.
Large-scale urbanization construction and new countryside construction, frequent natural disasters, and natural corrosion pose severe threat to the great ruins. It is not uncommon that the cultural relics are damaged and great ruins are occupied. Now the ruins monitoring mainly adopt general monitoring data processing system which can not effectively exert management, display, excavation analysis and data sharing of the relics monitoring data. Meanwhile those general software systems require layout of large number of devices or apparatuses, but they are applied to small-scope relics monitoring only. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to make use of the stereoscopic cartographic satellite technology to improve and supplement the great ruins monitoring index system and combine GIS and GPS to establish a highly automatic, real-time and intelligent great ruins monitoring and early-warning system in order to realize collection, processing, updating, spatial visualization, analysis, distribution and sharing of the monitoring data, and provide scientific and effective data for the relics protection, scientific planning, reasonable development and sustainable utilization.
Antonio Skarmeta Gómez
Full Text Available A flood warning system incorporates telemetered rainfall and flow/water level data measured at various locations in the catchment area. Real-time accurate data collection is required for this use, and sensor networks improve the system capabilities. However, existing sensor nodes struggle to satisfy the hydrological requirements in terms of autonomy, sensor hardware compatibility, reliability and long-range communication. We describe the design and development of a real-time measurement system for flood monitoring, and its deployment in a flash-flood prone 650 km2 semiarid watershed in Southern Spain. A developed low-power and long-range communication device, so-called DatalogV1, provides automatic data gathering and reliable transmission. DatalogV1 incorporates self-monitoring for adapting measurement schedules for consumption management and to capture events of interest. Two tests are used to assess the success of the development. The results show an autonomous and robust monitoring system for long-term collection of water level data inmany sparse locations during flood events.
Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine
Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system
management system named Archival Information Management System (AIMS), designed to meet the audit trail requirement for studies completed under the...are to be archived to the extent that future reproducibility and interrogation of results will exist. This report presents a prototype information
This article offers a dynamic view of continuously changes in a specific informational system illustrated through a case study in a small network company. Central aspects of the evolutionary process will be identified and framed in relation to the informational system change. It will be argued th...
Alterescu, S.; Hipkins, K. R.; Friedman, C. A.
On-line interactive information processing system easily and rapidly handles all aspects of data management related to patient care. General purpose system is flexible enough to be applied to other data management situations found in areas such as occupational safety data, judicial information, or personnel records.
Ciabatta, Luca; Brocca, Luca; Ponziani, Francesco; Berni, Nicola; Stelluti, Marco; Moramarco, Tommaso
The Umbria Region, located in Central Italy, is one of the most landslide risk prone area in Italy, almost yearly affected by landslides events at different spatial scales. For early warning procedures aimed at the assessment of the hydrogeological risk, the rainfall thresholds represent the main tool for the Italian Civil Protection System. As shown in previous studies, soil moisture plays a key-role in landslides triggering. In fact, acting on the pore water pressure, soil moisture influences the rainfall amount needed for activating a landslide. In this work, an operational physically-based early warning system, named PRESSCA, that takes into account soil moisture for the definition of rainfall thresholds is presented. Specifically, the soil moisture conditions are evaluated in PRESSCA by using a distributed soil water balance model that is recently coupled with near real-time satellite soil moisture product obtained from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) and from in-situ monitoring data. The integration of three different sources of soil moisture information allows to estimate the most accurate possible soil moisture condition. Then, both observed and forecasted rainfall data are compared with the soil moisture-based thresholds in order to obtain risk indicators over a grid of ~ 5 km. These indicators are then used for the daily hydrogeological risk evaluation and management by the Civil Protection regional service, through the sharing/delivering of near real-time landslide risk scenarios (also through an open source web platform: www.cfumbria.it). On the 11th-12th November, 2013, Umbria Region was hit by an exceptional rainfall event with up to 430mm/72hours that resulted in significant economic damages, but fortunately no casualties among the population. In this study, the results during the rainfall event of PRESSCA system are described, by underlining the model capability to reproduce, two days in advance, landslide risk scenarios in good spatial and temporal
Technology is the science that studies processes, methods and operations run or applied onto raw materials, matters or data, in order to obtain a certain product. Information is the material signal able to launch a material reaction of a dynamic auto-tuning system for which the system is conditioned and finalized. Information Technology is the technology needed for handling (procuring, processing, storing converting and transmitting) information, in particular, with the use of computers [Long...
Management information systems (MIS) is a commonly used term in computer profession. The new information technology has caused management to expect more from computer. The process of supplying information follows a well defined procedure. MIS should be capable for providing usable information to the various areas and levels of organization. MIS is different from data processing. MIS and business hierarchy provides a good framework for many organization which are using computers. (A.B.)
Hermanns, R. L.; Zentel, K.-O.; Wenzel, F.; Hövel, M.; Hesse, A.
In order to benefit from synergies and to avoid replication in the field of disaster re- duction programs and related scientific projects it is important to create an overview on the state of art, the fields of activity and their key aspects. Therefore, the German Committee for Disaster Reduction intends to document projects and institution related to natural disaster prevention in three databases. One database is designed to docu- ment scientific programs and projects related to natural hazards. In a first step data acquisition concentrated on projects carried out by German institutions. In a second step projects from all other European countries will be archived. The second database focuses on projects on early-warning systems and has no regional limit. Data mining started in November 2001 and will be finished soon. The third database documents op- erational projects dealing with disaster prevention and concentrates on international projects or internationally funded projects. These databases will be available on the internet end of spring 2002 (http://www.dkkv.org) and will be updated continuously. They will allow rapid and concise information on various international projects, pro- vide up-to-date descriptions, and facilitate exchange as all relevant information in- cluding contact addresses are available to the public. The aim of this contribution is to present concepts and the work done so far, to invite participation, and to contact other organizations with similar objectives.
Salzano, Ernesto; Garcia Agreda, Anita; Di Carluccio, Antonio; Fabbrocino, Giovanni
Industrial equipments and systems can suffer structural damage when hit by earthquakes, so that accidental scenarios as fire, explosion and dispersion of toxic substances can take place. As a result, overall damage to people, environment and properties increases. The present paper deals with seismic risk analysis of industrial facilities where atmospheric storage tanks (anchored or unanchored to ground), horizontal pressurised tanks, reactors and pumps are installed. Simplified procedures and methodologies based on historical database and literature data on natural-technological (Na-Tech) accidents for seismic risk assessment are discussed. Equipment-specific fragility curves have been thus derived depending on a single earthquake measure, peak ground acceleration (PGA). Fragility parameters have been then transformed to linear probit coefficients in order to obtain reliable threshold values for earthquake intensity measure, both for structural damage and loss of containment. These threshold values are of great interest when development of active and passive mitigation actions and systems, safety management, and the implementation of early warning system are concerned. The approach is general and can be implemented in any available code or procedure for risk assessment. Some results of seismic analysis of atmospheric storage tanks are also presented for validation.
Roshan, A.D.; Pisharady, Ajai S.; Bishnoi, L.R.; Shah, Meet
Coastal region of India has been experiencing tsunamis since historical times. Many nuclear facilities including nuclear power plants (NPPs), located along the coast are thus exposed to the hazards of tsunami. For the safety of these facilities as well as the safety of the citizens it is necessary to predict the possibility of occurrence of tsunamis for a recorded earthquake event and evaluate the tsunami hazard posed by the earthquake. To address these concerns, this work aims to design an expert system for Tsunami Warning for the Indian Coast with emphasis on evaluation of tsunami heights and arrival times at various nuclear facility sites. The expert system identifies possibility or otherwise of a tsunamigenic event based on earthquake data inputs. Rupture parameters are worked out for the event and unit tsunami source estimations which are available as precomputed database are combined appropriately to estimate the wave heights and time of arrivals at desired locations along the coast. The system also predicts tsunami wave heights at some pre-defined locations such as Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and other nuclear facility sites. Time of arrivals of first wave along Indian coast is also evaluated
Piermattei, Viviana; Martellucci, Riccardo; Pierattini, Alberto; Bonamano, Simone; Paladini de Mendoza, Francesco; Albani, Marta; Stefanì, Chiara; Madonia, Alice; Fersini, Giorgio; Marcelli, Marco
Coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly subject to multiple pressures and stressors produced by the effects of human activities. Intense and frequent disturbances which affect marine environment can derive from dredging activity, which is a fundamental management for most ports and harbours. The potential environmental effects of dredging procedures are generally due to the excavation of material from the sea bottom and the relocation elsewhere for disposal, overflow from the dredger and loss of material from pipelines during transport. Depending on the location and the intensity of these activities the marine environment, particularly sensitive areas, may be affected by dredging. The main environmental effects can be associated with suspended sediments and increases in turbidity into the water column, which can have adverse effects on marine animals and plants by reducing light penetration and by physical disturbance. For this reason it is fundamental to implement a real time monitoring system to control and prevent negative effects, enabling a rapid response to adverse water quality conditions and a fast activation of mitigation procedures, in agreement with all the reference authorities. In this work we present the development of an innovative 'Early Warning System' based on fixed stations, ad hoc in situ surveys and forecasting models, which was applied to a dredging activity carried out in the Gulf of Gaeta (Latium, Italy). It represents an extension of the C-CEMS (Civitavecchia Coastal Environmental Monitoring System) network, which is operative in the Tyrrhenian sea since 2005.
Zennifa, Fadilla; Fitrilina; Kamil, Husnil; Iramina, Keiji
Heart Disease affects approximately 70 million people worldwide where most people do not even know the symptoms. This research examines the prototype of early warning system for heart disease by android application. It aims to facilitate users to early detect heart disease which can be used independently. To build the application in android phone, variable centered intelligence rule system (VCIRS) as decision makers and pulse sensor - Arduino as heart rate detector were applied in this study. Moreover, in Arduino, the heart rate will become an input for symptoms in Android Application. The output of this system is the conclusion statement of users diagnosed with either coronary heart disease, hypertension heart disease, rheumatic heart disease or do not get any kind of heart disease. The result of diagnosis followed by analysis of the value of usage variable rate (VUR) rule usage rate (RUR) and node usage rate (NUR) that shows the value of the rule that will increase when the symptoms frequently appear. This application was compared with the medical analysis from 35 cases of heart disease and it showed concordance between diagnosis from android application and expert diagnosis of the doctors.
Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.
We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region
Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013
The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…
Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013
The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…
Since 1900, around 90,000 people have lost their lives in 76 earthquakes in Turkey, with a total affected population of around 7 million and direct losses of around 25 billion USD. Based on a time-dependent model that includes coseismic and post-seismic effects of the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake with moment magnitude Mw = 7.4, Parsons (J Geophys Res. 109, 2004) concluded that the probability of an earthquake with Mw > 7 in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul is 35 to 70 % in the next 30 years. According to a 2011 study, an earthquake with Mw = 7.25 on the Main Marmara Fault is expected to heavily damage or destroy 2 to 4 % of around 1,000,000 buildings in Istanbul with a population around 13 million, with 9 to 15 % of the buildings receiving medium damage and 20 to 34 % of the buildings damaged lightly (Erdik, Science 341:72, 2013). In the absence of adequate post-earthquake assembly areas especially in the heavily urbanized Istanbul, it is evident that after a major earthquake, especially in the coastal parts of the city, citizens would be storming to landfill assembly and recreational areas. Besides earthquakes, around 30 tsunamis have been reported by Altınok et al. (Natural Hazards Earth System Science 11:273-293, 2011) in the Marmara Sea. Among those, catastrophic earthquakes such as 1509, 1766, and 1894 resulted in considerable tsunamis and some damage. The latest tsunami observed in Marmara was due to a triggered submarine landslide of the 1999 Mw = 7.4 Kocaeli earthquake which led to reported run-up heights of 1-3 m in most places (Tinti et al., Marine Geology 225:311-330, 2006). In this study, I propose a design for a tsunami warning system specific for the Marmara region that is strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system (due to the short arrival times of tsunami) and stakeholders of the tsunami mitigation activities, such as local and regional components of disaster and emergency management and civil protection units, to ensure that the citizens
Limback, Nathan P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Medina, Melanie A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Silva, Michelle E [Los Alamos National Laboratory
The Information Systems Analysis and Development (ISAD) Team of the Safeguards Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has been developing web based information and knowledge management systems for sixteen years. Our vision is to rapidly and cost effectively provide knowledge management solutions in the form of interactive information systems that help customers organize, archive, post and retrieve nonproliferation and safeguards knowledge and information vital to their success. The team has developed several comprehensive information systems that assist users in the betterment and growth of their organizations and programs. Through our information systems, users are able to streamline operations, increase productivity, and share and access information from diverse geographic locations. The ISAD team is also producing interactive visual models. Interactive visual models provide many benefits to customers beyond the scope of traditional full-scale modeling. We have the ability to simulate a vision that a customer may propose, without the time constraints of traditional engineering modeling tools. Our interactive visual models can be used to access specialized training areas, controlled areas, and highly radioactive areas, as well as review site-specific training for complex facilities, and asset management. Like the information systems that the ISAD team develops, these models can be shared and accessed from any location with access to the internet. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on the capabilities of information systems and interactive visual models as well as consider the possibility of combining the two capabilities to provide the next generation of infonnation systems. The collection, processing, and integration of data in new ways can contribute to the security of the nation by providing indicators and information for timely action to decrease the traditional and new nuclear threats. Modeling and simulation tied to comprehensive
The goal of this project is to create responsive design portal with the tools for its administration which lets users to access tourist relevant information. In order to achieve the goal certain tasks were formulated, few technical analysis were done and similar systems which already exist were reviewed. The result is creation of information system with administrative tools, which can be used by several user types which have rights to take adequate actions. The system has account control modu...
In 2008, there were 2,395 incidents at highway-rail intersections (level crossings) in the United States, resulting in 939 injuries and 287 fatalities. Crossing elimination, grade separation, and the implementation of traditional warning devices are ...
As a major ITS initiative, the Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (VII) program is to revolutionize : transportation by creating an enabling communication infrastructure that will open up a wide range of : safety applications. The road-condition warn...
Hernández de Cos, Pablo; Koester, Gerrit B.; Moral-Benito, Enrique; Nickel, Christiane
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build?up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible improvements to enhance existing early warning indicators for fiscal stress, especially for the euro area. We show that a country?specific approach could strongly increase the signalling power of early war...
Sirintrapun, S Joseph; Artz, David R
This article provides surgical pathologists an overview of health information systems (HISs): what they are, what they do, and how such systems relate to the practice of surgical pathology. Much of this article is dedicated to the electronic medical record. Information, in how it is captured, transmitted, and conveyed, drives the effectiveness of such electronic medical record functionalities. So critical is information from pathology in integrated clinical care that surgical pathologists are becoming gatekeepers of not only tissue but also information. Better understanding of HISs can empower surgical pathologists to become stakeholders who have an impact on the future direction of quality integrated clinical care. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available The objective of this contribution is to characterize alternatives of information systems used for managing, processing and evaluation of information related to company vehicles. Especially we focus on logging, transferring and processing of on-road vehicle movement information in inland and international transportation. This segment of company information system has to monitor the car movement – actively or passively – according to demand of the company and after the processing it has to evaluate and give the complex monitoring of a situation of all the company vehicles to the controller.
Frech, M.; Holzaepfel, F.; Gerz, T. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Konopka, J. [Deutsche Flugsicherung (DFS) GmbH, Langen (Germany)
A wake vortex warning system (WVWS) has been developed for Frankfurt airport. This airport has two parallel runways which are separated by 518 m, a distance too short to operate them independently because wake vortices may be advected to the adjacent runway. The objective of the WVWS is to enable operation with reduced separation between two aircraft approaching the parallel runways at appropriate wind conditions. The WVWS applies a statistical persistence model to predict the crosswind within a 20 minute period. One of the main problems identified in the old WVWS are discontinuities between successive forecasts. These forecast breakdowns were not acceptable to airtraffic controllers. At least part of the problem was related to the fact that the forecast was solely based on the prediction of crosswind. A new method is developed on the basis of 523 days of sonic anemometer measurements at Frankfurt airport. It is demonstrated that the prediction of the horizontal wind vector avoids these difficulties and significantly improves the system's performance. (orig.)
Excessive heat events (EHE) affect security of Nations in multiple direct and indirect ways. EHE are the top cause for morbidity/mortality associated to any atmospheric extremes. Higher energy consumption used for cooling can lead to black-outs and social disorder. EHE affect the food supply chain reducing crop yield and increasing the probability of food contamination during delivery and storage. Distribution of goods during EHE can be severely disrupted due to mechanical failure of transportation equipment. EHE during athletic events e.g., marathons, may result to a high number of casualties. Finally, EHE may also affect military planning by e.g. reducing hours of exercise and by altering combat gear. Early warning systems for EHE allow for building resilience. In this paper we first define EHE as at least two consecutive heat days; a heat day is defined as a day with a maximum heat index with probability of occurrence that exceeds a certain threshold. We then use retrospective forecasts performed with a multitude of operational models and show that it is feasible to forecast EHE at forecast lead of week-2 and week-3 over the contiguous United States. We finally introduce an improved definition of EHE based on an intensity index and investigate forecast skill of the predictive system in the tropics and subtropics.
Wan Zakaria Wan Muhamad Tahir, Lakam Mejus; Johari Abd Latif
Many options of electronic instrumentation are available for monitoring unstable and/or potentially unstable slopes. One of the tools is applying TDR technology which is now regarded as a cost effective and alternative means for locating the depth to a shear plane or zone in a landslide. TDR uses an electronic voltage pulse that is reflected like radar from a damaged or deformed location in a coaxial cable. To monitor slope movement, coaxial cables are grouted in boreholes and interrogated using a TDR cable tester, which is attached to a programmed data logger. Characteristic cable signatures can be stored and compared over time for any changes indicating slope movement. This paper describes a case study documenting TDR installation procedure, data acquisition system and on-site TDR data collection of an unstable hill slope in Kampong Bharu -Bukit Tinggi, Bentong. A possibility of using a remotely automated monitoring system (advanced telemetry and data logger) that can incorporate with other types of sensors (e.g. rain gauge, vibrating wire piezometer, in-place inclinometer) together with many TDR sensor cables as an integrated package for early-warning of potential unstable slope movement around the area was highlighted and proposed. (Author)
MartInez, M A; Ruiz, J; Cuevas, E [Agencia Estatal de MeteorologIa (AEMET) (Spain)], E-mail: email@example.com
The Visible/IR images of SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager), on board Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites, are used to monitor dust events. Satellite-based detection of dust is a difficult problem due in part to the observing-system limitations. The main difficulty is that the dust can be confused with water/ice clouds. SEVIRI is not as optimal for the viewing of dust as SEAWIFS or MODIS, due to the fact that both of them count with additional short-wavelength channels. However, the SEVIRI 15-minute loop images can detect small dust plumes as well as subtle changes from one image to the next. A description of how the AEMET, former INM, is developing the environment to support MSG satellite imagery to the WMO/GEO Sand and Dust Storm Warning System (SDS WS) for Europe, Africa and Middle East Regional Centre will be briefly presented, together with some on-going operational developments to best monitor dust events.
Madlazim; Prastowo, Tjipto
Twenty-two of a total of 30 earthquake events reported by the Indonesian Agency for Geophysics, Climatology and Meteorology during the time period 2007-2010 were falsely issued as tsunamigenic by the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS). These 30 earthquakes were of different magnitudes and occurred in different locations. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Ina-TEWS using common earthquake parameters, including the earthquake magnitude, origin time, depth, and epicenter. In total, 298 datasets assessed by the Ina-TEWS and the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) method were assessed. The global CMT method is considered by almost all seismologists to be a reference for the determination of these parameters as they have been proved to be accurate. It was found that the earthquake magnitude, origin time, and depth provided by the Ina-TEWS were significantly different from those given in the global CMT catalog, whereas the latitude and longitude positions of the events provided by both tsunami assessment systems were coincident. The performance of the Ina-TEWS, particularly in terms of accuracy, remains questionable and needs to be improved.
Velasco, David; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Llort, Xavier; Velasco, Enrique
Early Warning Systems (EWS) are commonly identified as the most efficient tools in order to improve the preparedness and risk management against heavy rains and Flash Floods (FF) with the objective of reducing economical losses and human casualties. In particular, flash floods affecting torrential Mediterranean catchments are a key element to be incorporated within operational EWSs. The characteristic high spatial and temporal variability of the storms requires high-resolution data and methods to monitor/forecast the evolution of rainfall and its hydrological impact in small and medium torrential basins. A first version of an operational FF-EWS has been implemented in Catalonia (NE Spain) under the name of EHIMI system (Integrated Tool for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) with the support of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Flash flood warnings are issued based on radar-rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimation is performed on radar observations with high spatial and temporal resolution (1km2 and 10 minutes) in order to adapt the warning scale to the 1-km grid of the EWS. The method is based on comparing observed accumulated rainfall against rainfall thresholds provided by the regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The so-called "aggregated rainfall warning" at every river cell is obtained as the spatially averaged rainfall over its associated upstream draining area. Regarding the time aggregation of rainfall, the critical duration is thought to be an accumulation period similar to the concentration time of each cachtment. The warning is issued once the forecasted rainfall accumulation exceeds the rainfall thresholds mentioned above, which are associated to certain probability of occurrence. Finally, the hazard warning is provided and shown to the decision-maker in terms of exceeded return periods at every river cell covering the whole area of Catalonia. The objective of the present work includes the
Dugar, S.; MacClune, K.; Venkateswaran, K.; Yadav, S.; Szoenyi, M.
Implementing Community Based Flood Early Warning System (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal is challenging. Complex topography and geology combined with a sparse network of river and rainfall gauges and little predictive meteorological capacity both nationally and regionally dramatically constrain EWS options. This paper provides a synopsis of the hydrological and meteorological conditions that led to flooding in the Karnali River, West Nepal during mid-August 2014, and analyses the effectiveness of flood EWS in the region. On August 14-15, 2014, a large, slow moving weather system deposited record breaking rainfall in the foothills of the Karnali River catchment. Precipitation depths of 200 to 500 mm were recorded over a 24-hour period, which led to rapid rise of river heights. At the Chisapani river gauge station used for the existing EWS, where the Karnali River exits the Himalaya onto the Indo-Gangetic Plain, water levels rapidly exceeded the 11 meter danger level. Between 3 to 6 am, water levels rose from 11 to 16. 1 meters, well beyond the design height of 15 meters. Analysis suggests that 2014 floods may have been a one-in-1000 year event. Starting with the onset of intense rainfall, the Chisapani gauge reader was in regular communication with downstream stakeholders and communities providing them with timely information regarding rising water level. This provided people just enough time to move to safe places with their livestock and key assets. Though households still lost substantial assets, without the EWS, floodwaters would have caught communities completely unaware and damage would almost certainly have been much worse. In particular, despite the complications associated with access to the Chisapani gauge and failure of critical communication nodes during the floods, EWS was instrumental in saving lives. This study explores both the details of the flood event and performance of the early warning system, and identifies lessons learned to help
Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Zaniboni, Filippo
Italy is characterized by a great coastal extension, and by a series of possible tsunamigenic sources: many active faults, onshore and offshore, also near the shoreline and in shallow water, active volcanoes (Etna, Stromboli, Campi Flegrei for example), continental margins where landslides can occur. All these threats justify the establishment of a tsunami early warning system (TEWS), especially in Southern Italy where most of the sources capable of large disastrous tsunamis are located. One of the main characteristics of such sources, that however is common to other countries in not only in the Mediterranean, is their vicinity to the coast, which means that the tsunami lead time for attacking the coastal system is expected to be within 10-15 minutes in several cases. This constraint of time imposes to conceive and adopt specific plans aiming at a quick tsunami detection and alert dissemination for the TEWS, since obviously the TEWS alert must precede and not follow the tsunami first arrival. The need to be quick introduces the specific problem of uncertainty that is though inherent to any forecast system, but it is a very big issue especially when time available is short, since crucial decisions have to be taken in presence of incomplete data and incomplete processing. This is just the big problem that has to be faced by a system like the a TEWS in Italy. Uncertainties can be reduced by increasing the capabilities of the tsunami monitoring system by densifying the traditional instrumental networks (e.g. by empowering seismic and especially coastal and offshore sea-level observation systems) in the identified tsunamigenic source areas. However, uncertainties, though are expected to have a decreasing trend as time passes after the tsunami initiation, cannot be eliminated and have to be appropriately dealt with: uncertainties lead to under- and overestimation of the tsunami size and arrival times, and to missing or to false alerts, or in other terms they degrade the
Suzuki, Yoshiaki; Nishiyama, Kenji; Ono, Shuuji; Fukuda, Kouin
An overview of the review conducted on H-2 Orbiting Plane (HOPE) is presented. A prototype model was constructed by inputting various technical information proposed by related laboratories. Especially operation flow which enables understanding of correlation between various analysis items, judgement criteria, technical data, and interfaces with others was constructed. Technical information data base and retrieval systems were studied. A Macintosh personal computer was selected for information shaping because of its excellent function, performance, operability, and software completeness.
the technology and expertise to process and share ... services. GEHS supports efforts that reach beyond healthcare institutions to capture evidence ... Health information systems are a foundation for quality care, and can increase accountability ...
Home > Building Energy Information Systems and Performance Monitoring (EIS-PM) Building Energy evaluate and improve performance monitoring tools for energy savings in commercial buildings. Within the and visualization capabilities to energy and facility managers. As an increasing number of
Department of Transportation — The Matter Tracking Information System (MTIS) principle function is to streamline and integrate the workload and work activity generated or addressed by our 300 plus...
US Agency for International Development — USAID/OIG has initiated its new Audit Information Management System (AIMS) to track OIG's audit recommendations and USAID's management decisions. OIG's in-house...
Department of Transportation — EIS is an automated management information system that tracks the FAA’s enforcement actions on a nationwide basis. EIS is the FAA’s primary database for tracking...
Genetic testing reveals information about a patient's health status and predictions about the patient's future wellness, while also potentially disclosing health information relevant to other family members. With the increasing availability and affordability of genetic testing and the integration of genetics into mainstream medicine, the importance of clarifying the scope of confidentiality and the rules regarding disclosure of genetic findings to genetic relatives is prime. The United Nations International Declaration on Human Genetic Data urges an appreciation for principles of equality, justice, solidarity and responsibility in the context of genetic testing, including a commitment to honoring the privacy and security of the person tested. Considering this global mandate and recent professional statements in the context of a legal amendment to patient privacy policies in Australia, a fresh scrutiny of the legal history of a physician's duty to warn is warranted. This article inquiries whether there may be anything ethically or socially amiss with a potential future recommendation for health professionals or patients to universally disclose particular cancer predisposition genetic diagnosis to genetic family members. While much of the discussion remains applicable to all genetic diagnosis, the article focuses on the practice of disclosure within the context of BRCA1/2 diagnosis. An 'ethic of care' interpretation of legal tradition and current practice will serve to reconcile law and medical policy on the issue of physician disclosure of genetic results to family members without patient consent. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Najafi, Shahriar; Flintsch, Gerardo W; Khaleghian, Seyedmeysam
Minimizing roadway crashes and fatalities is one of the primary objectives of highway engineers, and can be achieved in part through appropriate maintenance practices. Maintaining an appropriate level of friction is a crucial maintenance practice, due to the effect it has on roadway safety. This paper presents a fuzzy logic inference system that predicts the rate of vehicle crashes based on traffic level, speed limit, and surface friction. Mamdani and Sugeno fuzzy controllers were used to develop the model. The application of the proposed fuzzy control system in a real-time slippery road warning system is demonstrated as a proof of concept. The results of this study provide a decision support model for highway agencies to monitor their network's friction and make appropriate judgments to correct deficiencies based on crash risk. Furthermore, this model can be implemented in the connected vehicle environment to warn drivers of potentially slippery locations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Bens Pardamean; Anindito; Anjela Djoeang; Nana Tobing
The study designed an information system model for Disease Management (DisMan) that met the specifications and needs of a consumer electronics manufacturer. The diseases monitored by this study were diabetes, hypertension and tuberculosis. Data were collected through interviews with the companyâs human resources department and occupational health provider. As for the model, literature and online research were conducted to collect health standards and information system standards on existing D...
Cojazzi, Giacomo G.M.; Van Der Goot, Erik; Verile, Marco; Wolfart, Erik; Rutan Fowler, Marcy; Feldman, Yana; Hammond, William; Schweighardt, John; Ferguson, Mattew
Acquisition and analysis of open source information plays an increasingly important role in the IAEA’s move towards safeguards implementation based on all safeguards relevant information known about a State. The growing volume of open source information requires the development of technology and tools capable of effectively collecting relevant information, filtering out “noise”, organizing valuable information in a clear and accessible manner, and assessing its relevance. In this context, the IAEA’s Division of Information Management (SGIM) and the EC’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) are currently implementing a joint project to advance the effectiveness and efficiency of the IAEA’s workflow for open source information collection and analysis. The objective is to provide tools to support SGIM in the production of the SGIM Open Source Highlights, which is a daily news brief consisting of the most pertinent news stories relevant to safeguards and non-proliferation. The process involves the review and selection of hundreds of articles from a wide array of specifically selected sources. The joint activity exploits the JRC’s Europe Media Monitor (EMM) and NewsDesk applications: EMM automatically collects and analyses news articles from a pre-defined list of web sites, and NewsDesk allows an analyst to manually select the most relevant articles from the EMM stream for further processing. The paper discusses the IAEA’s workflow for the production of SGIM Open Source Highlights and describes the capabilities of EMM and NewsDesk. It then provides an overview of the joint activities since the project started in 2011, which were focused i) on setting up a separate EMM installation dedicated to the nuclear safeguards and security domain (Nuclear Security Media Monitor, NSMM) and ii) on evaluating the NSMM/NewsDesk for meeting the IAEA’s needs. Finally, it presents the current use NSMM/NewsDesk at the IAEA and proposes options for further integration with the
Wang, Zijun; Zhao, Boming
We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral ( ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.
Full Text Available The impact of natural disasters increases every year with more casualties and damage to property and the environment. Therefore, it is important to prevent consequences by implementation of the early warning system (EWS in order to announce the possibility of the harmful phenomena occurrence. In this paper, focus is placed on the implementation of the EWS on the micro location in order to announce possible harmful phenomena occurrence caused by wind. In order to predict such phenomena (wind speed, an artificial neural network (ANN prediction model is developed. The model is developed on the basis of the input data obtained by local meteorological station on the University of Rijeka campus area in the Republic of Croatia. The prediction model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches, after which it was found that it is possible to perform very good wind speed prediction for time steps Δt=1 h, Δt=3 h, and Δt=8 h. The developed model is implemented in the EWS as a decision support for improvement of the existing “procedure plan in a case of the emergency caused by stormy wind or hurricane, snow and occurrence of the ice on the University of Rijeka campus.”
Dimitrova, R.; Lurponglukana, N.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Runger, G. C.; Hyde, P.; Hedquist, B. C.; Anderson, J.; Bannister, W.; Johnson, W.
Statistically significant correlations between increase of asthma attacks in children and elevated concentrations of particulate matter of diameter 10 microns and less (PM10) were determined for metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona. Interpolated concentrations from a five-site network provided spatial distribution of PM10 that was mapped onto census tracts with population health records. The case-crossover statistical method was applied to determine the relationship between PM10 concentration and asthma attacks. For children ages 5-17, a significant relationship was discovered between the two, while children ages 0-4 exhibited virtually no relationship. The risk of adverse health effects was expressed as a function of the change from the 25th to 75th percentiles of mean level PM10 (36 μg m-3). This increase in concentration was associated with a 12.6% (95% CI: 5.8%, 19.4%) increase in the log odds of asthma attacks among children ages 5-17. Neither gender nor other demographic variables were significant. The results are being used to develop an asthma early warning system for the study area.
Lester, Benjamin D; Sager, Lauren N; Dawson, Jeffrey; Hacker, Sarah D; Aksan, Nazan; Rizzo, Matthew; Kitazaki, Satoshi
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have largely been developed with a "one-size-fits-all" approach. This approach neglects the large inter-individual variability in perceptual and cognitive abilities that affect aging ADAS users. We investigated the effectiveness of a forward collision warning (FCW) with fixed response parameters in young and older drivers with differing levels of cognitive functioning. Drivers responded to a pedestrian stepping into the driver's path on a simulated urban road. Behavioral metrics included response times (RT) for pedal controls and two indices of risk penetration (e.g., maximum deceleration and minimum time-to-collision (TTC)). Older drivers showed significantly slower responses at several time points compared to younger drivers. The FCW facilitated response times (RTs) for older and younger drivers. However, older drivers still showed smaller safety gains compared to younger drivers at accelerator pedal release and initial brake application when the FCW was active. No significant differences in risk metrics were observed within the condition studied. The results demonstrate older drivers likely differ from younger drivers using a FCW with a fixed parameter set. Finally, we briefly discuss how future research should examine predictive relationships between domains of cognitive functioning and ADAS responses to develop parameter sets to fit the individual.