WorldWideScience

Sample records for warning devices

  1. 30 CFR 56.14208 - Warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning devices. 56.14208 Section 56.14208 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning devices...

  2. 30 CFR 57.14208 - Warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning devices. 57.14208 Section 57.14208... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning devices shall be used when parked mobile equipment creates a hazard to persons in other mobile...

  3. 30 CFR 75.208 - Warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning devices. 75.208 Section 75.208 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Roof Support § 75.208 Warning devices. Except during...

  4. 33 CFR 143.15 - Lights and warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Lights and warning devices. 143... devices. (a) OCS facilities must meet the lights and warning devices requirements under part 67 of this... devices requirements under the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea 1972 or...

  5. Device for Monitoring - Warning Frequency Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do Nhu Y

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Power quality was assessed by two parameters voltage and frequency, the voltage changes are of a local property, and change the frequency – systematic. Frequency deviation in the grid due to an imbalance in power between the generator and the load will affect the economic and technical indicators of power stations, as well as consumers. To ensure the stability and reliability of the electric system and generator protection to prevent damage during the operation, it is necessary and indispensable device monitoring – warning frequency generator in power stations.

  6. 30 CFR 77.410 - Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices. 77... UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Safeguards for Mechanical Equipment § 77.410 Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices. (a) Mobile equipment such as front-end loaders, forklifts, tractors, graders, and trucks,...

  7. 30 CFR 75.1103-4 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; installation; minimum requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-4 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; installation; minimum requirements. (a) Effective December 31, 2009, automatic fire sensor and warning device...

  8. 30 CFR 75.1103-3 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-3 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general. Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems installed in belt haulageways of...

  9. 76 FR 58301 - Proposed Extension of Existing Information Collection; Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Device...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-20

    ... Sensor and Warning Device Systems; Examination and Test Requirements ACTION: Notice of request for public... Coal Mining. OMB 1219-0145 has been renamed Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Device Systems... to a task in July 2011; OMB 1219-0073 subsumed Sec. 75.1103-5(a)(2)(ii) Automatic fire sensor and...

  10. Human factors field evaluation of automotive headway maintenance/collision warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingus, T A; McGehee, D V; Manakkal, N; Jahns, S K; Carney, C; Hankey, J M

    1997-06-01

    Three on-road studies were conducted to determine how headway maintenance and collision warning displays influence driver behavior. Visual perspective, visual perspective with a pointer, visual perspective combined with an auditory warning, discrete visual warning, and discrete auditory warning were assessed during both coupled headway and deceleration events. Results indicate that when drivers are provided with salient visual information regarding safe headways, they utilize the information and increase their headway when appropriate. Auditory warnings were less effective than visual warnings for increasing headways but may be helpful for improving reaction time during events that require deceleration. Drivers were somewhat insensitive to false alarm rates, at least during short-term use. Finally, and most important, driver headway maintenance increased by as much as 0.5 s when the appropriate visual display was used. However, a study to investigate the longterm effects of such displays on behavior is strongly recommended prior to mass marketing of headway maintenance/collision warning devices.

  11. 30 CFR 75.1103-8 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-8 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements. (a) Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems shall be examined at...

  12. Microsimulation modelling of driver behaviour towards alternative warning devices at railway level crossings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tey, Li-Sian; Zhu, Sicong; Ferreira, Luis; Wallis, Guy

    2014-10-01

    Level crossings are amongst the most complex of road safety issues, due to the addition of rail infrastructure, trains and train operations. The differences in the operational characteristics of different warning devices together with varying crossing, traffic or/and train characteristics, cause different driver behaviour at crossings. This paper compares driver behaviour towards two novel warning devices (rumble strips and in-vehicle audio warning) with two conventional warning devices (flashing light and stop sign) at railway level crossings using microsimulation modelling. Two safety performance indicators directly related to collision risks, violation and time-to-collision, were adopted. Results indicated the active systems were more effective at reducing likely collisions compared to passive devices. With the combined application of driving simulation and traffic microsimulation modelling, traffic safety performance indicators for a level crossing can be estimated. From these, relative safety comparisons for the different traffic devices are derived, or even for absolute safety evaluation with proper calibration from field investigations.

  13. Modelling driver behaviour towards innovative warning devices at railway level crossings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tey, Li-Sian; Wallis, Guy; Cloete, Steven; Ferreira, Luis

    2013-03-01

    Improving safety at railway level crossings is costly and as funds are often limited, it is important to search for cost-effective, evidence-based solutions. The effect that the many existing alternative systems have on driver behaviour is not always known. This paper compares driver behaviour towards two novel warning devices (rumble strips and in-vehicle audio warning) at railway level crossings with two conventional warning devices (flashing light and stop sign). Regression models were developed to reflect driver's responses towards the four different types of devices based on data collected from a driving simulation experiment. The regression models include a binary choice model for predicting the probability of a driver stopping or driving through a railway crossing, as well as mixed regression models for predicting the moment at which a driver will produce specific behavioural responses before stopping at a crossing (e.g. initiation of accelerator release and application of foot-pedal brake). Violation results indicated the active systems produced much higher levels of driver compliance than passive devices. Contributing factors, such as age, gender, speed and types of warning devices were found significant at different approach stages to the level crossings. With the application of such behavioural models and traffic conflict techniques in microscopic simulation tools, traffic safety indicators, such as collision likelihood and time-to-collision can be estimated. From these, relative safety comparisons for the different traffic devices are derived. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. 30 CFR 57.9306 - Warning devices for restricted clearances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH SAFETY AND HEALTH STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND METAL AND NONMETAL MINES Loading, Hauling, and Dumping Safety Devices, Provisions, and Procedures for Roadways, Railroads, and...

  15. 30 CFR 75.1101-10 - Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives. 75.1101-10 Section 75.1101-10 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1101-10 Water...

  16. Stability Analysis of a Repairable System with Warning Device and Repairman Vacation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yangli Ren

    2013-01-01

    probability analysis method, the system is first transformed into a group of integrodifferential equations. Then, the existence and uniqueness as well as regularity of the system dynamic solution are discussed with the functional analysis method. Further, the asymptotic stability, especially the exponential stability of the system dynamic solution, is studied by using the strongly continuous semigroup theory or C0 semigroup theory. The reliability indices and some applications (such as the comparisons of indices and profit of systems with and without warning device, as well as numerical examples, are presented at the end of the paper.

  17. On the design of a (H)EV steerable warning device using acoustic beam forming and advanced numerical acoustic simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Genechten, B.; Vansant, K.; Berkhoff, Arthur P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the simulation-based design methodology used in the eVADER project for the development of targeted acoustic warning devices for increased detectability of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (HEVs) while, at the same time, reducing urban noise pollution. A key component of this system

  18. Research of the Warning Alarm Device of Vehicle Rollover%汽车侧翻预警报警装置的研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈启鹏; 熊巧巧; 周成

    2012-01-01

    阐述了汽车侧翻的危害,以及我国汽车侧翻预警装置的研究现状.简述了汽车侧翻预警报警装置的工作原理,提出了一种基于侧向加速度和基于横向载荷转移率为侧翻判断条件的侧翻预警的方法.指出侧向加速度和横向载荷转移率是开发实用汽车侧翻预警报警系统的关键技术,并对汽车侧翻预警报警装置的实用性进行了探讨.%This paper states the damage of vehicle rollover, and the research status of the warning alarm device of vehicle rollover at home. Additionally, it supplely states the warning alarm device of vehicle rollover,which presents a rollover warning method that based on lateral acceleration and lateral load transfer ratio. And finally,it points out lateral acceleration and lateral load transfer ratio are the key technology of exploiting the application vehicle rollover warning alarm system, and discuss the practicability of vehicle rollover warning alarm device.

  19. Simulation-based design of a steerable acoustic warning device to increase (H)EV detectability while reducing urban noise pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Genechten, B.; Berkhoff, Arthur P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the simulation-based design methodology used in the eVADER project for the development of targeted acoustic warning devices for increased detectability of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (HEVs) while, at the same time, reducing urban noise pollution compared to conventional

  20. Utility of Ochrobactrum anthropi YC152 in a Microbial Fuel Cell as an Early Warning Device for Hexavalent Chromium Determination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guey-Horng Wang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Fast hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI determination is important for environmental risk and health-related considerations. We used a microbial fuel cell-based biosensor inoculated with a facultatively anaerobic, Cr(VI-reducing, and exoelectrogenic Ochrobactrum anthropi YC152 to determine the Cr(VI concentration in water. The results indicated that O. anthropi YC152 exhibited high adaptability to pH, temperature, salinity, and water quality under anaerobic conditions. The stable performance of the microbial fuel cell (MFC-based biosensor indicated its potential as a reliable biosensor system. The MFC voltage decreased as the Cr(VI concentration in the MFC increased. Two satisfactory linear relationships were observed between the Cr(VI concentration and voltage output for various Cr(VI concentration ranges (0.0125–0.3 mg/L and 0.3–5 mg/L. The MFC biosensor is a simple device that can accurately measure Cr(VI concentrations in drinking water, groundwater, and electroplating wastewater in 45 min with low deviations (<10%. The use of the biosensor can help in preventing the violation of effluent regulations and the maximum allowable concentration of Cr(VI in water. Thus, the developed MFC biosensor has potential as an early warning detection device for Cr(VI determination even if O. anthropi YC152 is a possible opportunistic pathogen.

  1. Utility of Ochrobactrum anthropi YC152 in a Microbial Fuel Cell as an Early Warning Device for Hexavalent Chromium Determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guey-Horng; Cheng, Chiu-Yu; Liu, Man-Hai; Chen, Tzu-Yu; Hsieh, Min-Chi; Chung, Ying-Chien

    2016-08-16

    Fast hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) determination is important for environmental risk and health-related considerations. We used a microbial fuel cell-based biosensor inoculated with a facultatively anaerobic, Cr(VI)-reducing, and exoelectrogenic Ochrobactrum anthropi YC152 to determine the Cr(VI) concentration in water. The results indicated that O. anthropi YC152 exhibited high adaptability to pH, temperature, salinity, and water quality under anaerobic conditions. The stable performance of the microbial fuel cell (MFC)-based biosensor indicated its potential as a reliable biosensor system. The MFC voltage decreased as the Cr(VI) concentration in the MFC increased. Two satisfactory linear relationships were observed between the Cr(VI) concentration and voltage output for various Cr(VI) concentration ranges (0.0125-0.3 mg/L and 0.3-5 mg/L). The MFC biosensor is a simple device that can accurately measure Cr(VI) concentrations in drinking water, groundwater, and electroplating wastewater in 45 min with low deviations (<10%). The use of the biosensor can help in preventing the violation of effluent regulations and the maximum allowable concentration of Cr(VI) in water. Thus, the developed MFC biosensor has potential as an early warning detection device for Cr(VI) determination even if O. anthropi YC152 is a possible opportunistic pathogen.

  2. Methodological approach to assess tractor stability in normal operation in field using a commercial warning device

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Rondelli

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Since Roll-Over Protective Structures (ROPS are mandatory on tractors, the number of fatalities caused in the event of an upset is definitely reduced. Nevertheless, fatal accidents caused by machine loss of stability are still of great concern. In fact, despite ROPS have reduced injury to agricultural operators, tractor stability is still a complex issue due to its high versatility in use, especially considering normal operations in field, when interactions with the environment such as soil morphology and climatic conditions are involved, as well as interactions with operator skills and experience. With the aim of collecting data on different variables influencing the dynamics of tractors in field, a commercial device that allows the continuous monitoring of working conditions and the active configuration of the machines was fitted on standard tractors in normal operation at the experimental farm of the Bologna University. The device consists of accelerometers, gyroscope, GSM/GPRS, GPS for geo-referencing and a transceiver for the automatic recognition of tractor-connected equipment. A microprocessor processes data and provides information, through a dedicated algorithm requiring data on the geometry of the tested tractor, on the level of risk for the operator in terms of probable loss of stability and suggests corrective measures to reduce the potential instability of the tractor.

  3. 医疗设备智能定位预警系统的研究%Research on intelligent positionig system of warning device

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    佟东宁; 王丹; 蒋知新; 李侠

    2014-01-01

    Objective:Achieving evaluating soldier injury by infrared imaging method and information management of early warning equipment, boosting the using efficiency of device, lowering the administrative cost of device, serving effectively on clinical, establishing the Internet of Things (IOT) administrative system platform, achieving digitalizing, informative administrative mode.Methods: Adopting RFID radio frequence recognitive technology, designing the intelligence dynamic tracking administrative system.Results: In the using period of equipment in wartime, controlling the status of device at any time, obtaining the working data, bringing about the intellectual informative administration by identity recognition.Conclusion: Using RFID theory and character, combining the device-administrative controlling platform, may achieve the using and flowing condition of real time monitoring device, reflect the mobile tracking record and warning, the administrative statistic statement of device. In order to build an early warning mechanism management which advanced, standard and optimized.%目的:实现战时评估战伤伤情的红外影像方法与设备预警信息化管理,提高设备使用效率,降低设备的管理成本,有效服务于战争环境。方法:采用射频识别(RFID)技术,设计智能动态定位管理系统。建立管理物联网系统平台,实现设备智能定位预警数字化、信息化管理模式。结果:智能定位预警系统的建立,可实时了解战时环境医疗设备的使用周期和使用状态,及时获取有效数据,通过身份识别与定位,实现医疗设备的预警智能信息化管理。结论:利用RFID的原理、特点及医疗设备管理监控平台,能够实时监控医疗设备的使用和流动情况,可实现对医疗设备的移动跟踪记录、报警以及设备的统计报表等管理目标,进一步规范和优化医疗设备的预警管理机制。

  4. Warning systems and public warning response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorensen, J.H.

    1993-09-01

    This background paper reviews current knowledge on warning systems and human response to warnings. It expands on an earlier paper prepared for a workshop on the Second Assessment on Natural Hazards, held in Estes Park, Colorado in July 1992. Although it has a North American perspective, many of the lessons learned are universally applicable. The paper addresses warning systems in terms of dissemination and does not cover physical science issues associated with prediction and forecast. Finally, it covers hazards with relatively short lead times -- 48 hours or less. It does not address topics such as long-term forecasts of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions or early famine warning systems.

  5. Wind gust warning verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primo, Cristina

    2016-07-01

    Operational meteorological centres around the world increasingly include warnings as one of their regular forecast products. Warnings are issued to warn the public about extreme weather situations that might occur leading to damages and losses. In forecasting these extreme events, meteorological centres help their potential users in preventing the damage or losses they might suffer. However, verifying these warnings requires specific methods. This is due not only to the fact that they happen rarely, but also because a new temporal dimension is added when defining a warning, namely the time window of the forecasted event. This paper analyses the issues that might appear when dealing with warning verification. It also proposes some new verification approaches that can be applied to wind warnings. These new techniques are later applied to a real life example, the verification of wind gust warnings at the German Meteorological Centre ("Deutscher Wetterdienst"). Finally, the results obtained from the latter are discussed.

  6. Warning Signs of Bullying

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to talk to kids about bullying. Respond to Bullying Learn how to respond to bullying . From stopping ... Text Size: A A A Warning Signs for Bullying There are many warning signs that may indicate ...

  7. Monitoring and Pre-warning Technology of Important Devices of Nuclear Power Plant%核电厂重要设备的监视与预警技术

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    顾海霞; 王婷; 刘高俊; 谭珂

    2014-01-01

    针对核电厂运行过程中出现的重要设备的异常变化,利用数据挖掘技术,建立重要设备的动态规则库,在核电厂实时信息监控系统的实时数据和历史数据基础上,分析核电厂重要设备的变化趋势和规律,对重要设备的异常情况进行实时在线监视和预警。为操纵员提供判断依据,降低核事故发生的几率,从而有效地提高了核电厂运行的安全性。%Aiming to find out abnormal changes of important devices in nuclear power plant operation process ,combined with data mining technology ,dynamic regular library of important devices was set up .Based on the real‐time data and the history data of real‐time information monitoring system in nuclear power plant , trend and regularity of important devices of nuclear power plant were obtained and analyzed ,so the important devices can be monitored and pre‐warn online .The basis can be provided for the opera‐tors ,so the probability of nuclear accidents would be reduced and the safety of operation for nuclear power plant can be effectively improved .

  8. 基于DSP和FPGA的汽车防撞高速数据采集系统%A high speed data acquisition system for automotive collision warning devices based on DSP-FPGA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋伟

    2012-01-01

    With the continuous development of information technology, data acquisition technology has become an important modern tool, and is also expanding its scope of application. It has been widely used in communication, radar, medical, remote sensing and other fields. This data acquisition system designed is based on a high-speed DSP-FPGA data acquisition, primarily for high-speed acquisition and processing on laser radar echo signal in automotive collision warning devices.%随着信息技术的不断发展,数据采集技术已成为重要的现代化的工具,并且其应用范围也在不断扩大,在通信、雷达、医疗、遥测遥感等领域得到了广泛的应用。本文为了汽车防撞报警设备高速信号处理的目的.采用了DSP和FPGA处理器加上相关算法,实现了对激光雷达回波信号能够高速的采集和处理。

  9. Sound-light Warning Device on Low-water Display of Self-control High-level Water Tank%自制高位水箱低位显示水位声光报警装置

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    翟育东

    2013-01-01

      水位报警装置,实现了对高位水箱水位的实时监测低位显示功能,其功能的实现主要由水箱、连通管、浮筒、控制器等组成。与现有技术相比,方便了由于水箱设置较高,在相对低位水箱水位的观察与监测,从而根据水箱水温变化,及时控制出水温度。同时降低了员工的劳动强度,提高了工作效率。%The water level warning device complete real-time supervision display on water level of head water tank. Its functions enforcement depends on water tank, communicating pipe, float and controller. The main operating principles of water level monitoring device are as follows:1. connect the communicating pipe and set magnetic float on side wall of the water tank; 2.set the magnetic switch on the ectotheca of communicating pipe that may make magnetic float change with the water table, thus the magnetic switch is under control and the corresponding water level condition can be displayed. Compared with the available technology, it is convenient to observe and monitor the water level;accordingly, the temperature of exceeding water can change by water temperature in the tank;meanwhile, it lowers labour intensity and improves work efficiency.

  10. Development of Flood Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joy J. Labo,

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Community-based early warning systems (CBEWS is a “people-centered” system and empowers individuals and communities threatened by hazards to act on sufficient time and in an appropriate manner to reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss of life, damage to property, environment and loss of livelihood. These things lead to the development of the device necessary for the protection of the community against flood hazards as it allows people to get prepared with sufficient time. An alarm system was developed to monitor the water level on Salog River that overflows during heavy rains. The water level sensors were submerged in a canal of water to test the functionality of the device before its installation. Computer programs were created to enhance the monitoring of water level: the River Monitor Software and the Water Level Monitor. The LED arrays emit light according to water level; green for low, orange for medium, and red for high. A siren also alarms with different intervals (30 seconds for low, 15 seconds for medium, and a continuous alarm for high. Automatic emergency lighting was integrated in the design and lights up during power outages powered by rechargeable sealed battery that charges when ac power is supplied to the device. Levels were established based on available data; low water level means awareness; medium water level means preparedness and high water level means immediate response is necessary.

  11. Research of indoor smoke warning and air purification equipment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wangronglong; Zhaoyexing; Fuyunhua

    2015-01-01

    In order to reduce indoor smoke concentration and improve indoor air quality,we put forward the intelligent indoor smoke warning and air purification device. This device can quickly reduce the concentration of indoor smoke by the air purification and fire alarm function. It provides a suitable living environment for people.

  12. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  13. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be tested for the prescribed warning time at least once every 12 months and when the warning system...

  14. Flash floods: forecasting and warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sene, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    ... and levees.The volume discusses the increasing use of meteorological observation and forecasting techniques to extend the lead time available for warning, combined with hydrological models for the river response...

  15. Flash floods: forecasting and warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sene, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    .... Floods of this type are often characterised by fast flowing deep water and a high debris content which - combined with the short lead time available for warnings - add to the risk to people and property...

  16. EVALUATING EFFECTIVENESS OF MOBILE BROWSER SECURITY WARNINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronak Shah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work precisely evaluates whether browser security warnings are as ineffective as proposed by popular sentiments and past writings. This research used different kinds of Android mobile browsers as well as desktop browsers to evaluate security warnings. Security experts and developers should give emphasis on making a user aware of security warnings and should not neglect aim of communicating this to users. Security experts and system architects should emphasis the goal of communicating security information to end users. In most of the browsers, security warnings are not emphasized, and browsers simply do not show warnings, or there are a number of ways to hide those warnings of malicious sites. This work precisely finds that how inconsistent browsers really are in prompting security warnings. In particular, majority of the modern mobile web browsers are vulnerable to these security threats. We find inconsistency in SSL warnings among web browsers. Based on this work, we make recommendations for warning designers and researchers.

  17. Macro finance early warning system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guihuan ZHENG; Xun ZHANG; Wei SHANG; Shanying XU

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a financial early warning informa-tion system is developed based on the multi-dimensional cli-mate approach that is featured with a multi-dimensional in-dex construction and the relevant multi-dimensional analy-sis. Requirement analysis and design issues of building an information system supporting this multi-dimensional cli-mate approach are discussed in detail. And a case using this system to study the macro financial issues is presented to illustrate how the proposed multi-dimensional approach works in the information system we design. This research is an interdisciplinary work of economic theories, macro finan-cial empirical studies, and software engineering. With ad-vanced macro financial early warning theories implemented in a web application, the Macro Financial Early Warning System (FEWS) developed in this research has been proved to be effective in a trial running in the Forecasting research institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  18. Sugary Drink Warnings Hit Home with Teens

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_160860.html Sugary Drink Warnings Hit Home With Teens Fewer choose sweetened ... Health warning labels can steer teens away from sugary drinks, a new study suggests. "The average teen in ...

  19. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Storm Wallets

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is responsible for typhoon forecasts and warnings for the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. After each storm, the JTWC...

  20. 30 CFR 57.14214 - Train warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above the surrounding noise level shall be sounded— (a) Immediately prior to moving trains; (b) When... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Train warnings. 57.14214 Section...

  1. 30 CFR 56.14214 - Train warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above the surrounding noise level shall be sounded— (a) Immediately prior to moving trains; (b) When trains... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Train warnings. 56.14214 Section...

  2. Public response to alerts and warnings using social media: report of a workshop on current knowledge and research gaps

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Computer Science and Telecommunications Board; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council

    "Following an earlier NRC workshop on public response to alerts and warnings delivered to mobile devices, a related workshop was held on February 28 and 29, 2012 to look at the role of social media in disaster response...

  3. Storm Warnings on Lake Balaton,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-04-06

    magnitude of this effect. Consequently, the employees of the Storm Warning Service decided in the course of the summer 1962, to set up a cup -type... anemometer on a passenger ship regularly passing between Si6fok and Balatonfired, and to take wind measurements along this route across the Lake in a...along this route. During the measurements, the reading of the anemometer was taken at intervals and noted together with the time of reading. Since the

  4. 锅炉原煤仓自燃预警与惰化防火装置%Device of spontaneous combustion warning and fire protection for boiler coal bunker

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李岸然

    2014-01-01

    原煤仓存煤自燃是电站锅炉安全运行的重要隐患,长时间以来缺少有效监测和控制手段。通过PLC模块对原煤仓仓壁敏感区域进行连续测温,辅以CO传感器和烟气感应器信号联合判断自燃趋势,避免了人工测量判断的主观误差的弊端。监测信号达到阈值时,自动控制电磁阀喷CO2灭火,实现全过程自动监测和灭火。对于未发生自燃的原煤仓也可自动定期进行气体惰化防火,降低存煤自燃概率,提高了整个系统的安全性。%Lack of effective monitoring and control ing methods makes coal bunker spontaneous combustion into a big risk facor for the power boiler safety operation in a long time. By continuously measuring coal bunker wal sensitive regions temperature,and assisted with CO sensor and gas sensor signals,the PLC module can accu-rately judge the spontaneous combusiton tendency,which avoids the disadvantages of the human subjective er-ror. Once the monitoring signals reach a threshold,the PLC contorl er automatical y opens the solenoid valve to spray CO2 into coal bunker to extinguish fire,and the whole process realizes the automatic control. For unspon-taneous combustion coal bunker,the device can also set program to conduct CO2 inert at fixed intervals,which reduces the probability of spontaneous combustion and improves the security of the whole system.

  5. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) WATERFRONT FACILITIES WATERFRONT FACILITIES HANDLING LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS AND LIQUEFIED HAZARDOUS GAS Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer...

  6. 33 CFR 127.207 - Warning alarms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) WATERFRONT FACILITIES WATERFRONT FACILITIES HANDLING LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS AND LIQUEFIED HAZARDOUS GAS Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Equipment § 127.207 Warning alarms. (a) The...

  7. Communicating risk information and warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mileti, D. S.

    1990-01-01

    Major advances have occurred over the last 20 years about how to effectively communicate risk information and warnings to the public. These lessons have been hard won. Knowledge has mounted on the finding from social scientific studies of risk communication failures, successes and those which fell somewhere in between. Moreover, the last 2 decades have borne witness to the brith, cultivation, and blossoming of information sharing between those physical scientists who discover new information about risk and those communcation scientists who trace its diffusion and then measure pbulic reaction. 

  8. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... (2) Facing outboard towards the water so that the sign may be seen from the water. (b) Except as provided in paragraph (e) of this section, each warning sign must have the following words: (1) Warning. (2) Dangerous Cargo. (3) No Visitors. (4) No Smoking. (5) No Open Lights. (c) Each letter in the words on...

  9. An Infrastructure for a Traffic Warning System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2005-01-01

    The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure support...

  10. Urban Flood Warning Systems using Radar Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, N.; Bedient, P. B.

    2013-12-01

    There have been an increasing number of urban areas that rely on weather radars to provide accurate precipitation information for flood warning purposes. As non-structural tools, radar-based flood warning systems can provide accurate and timely warnings to the public and private entities in urban areas that are prone to flash floods. The wider spatial and temporal coverage from radar increases flood warning lead-time when compared to rain and stream gages alone. The Third Generation Rice and Texas Medical Center (TMC) Flood Alert System (FAS3) has been delivering warning information with 2 to 3 hours of lead time and a R2 value of 93% to facility personnel in a readily understood format for more than 50 events in the past 15 years. The current FAS utilizes NEXRAD Level II radar rainfall data coupled with a real-time hydrologic model (RTHEC-1) to deliver warning information. The system has a user-friendly dashboard to provide rainfall maps, Google Maps based inundation maps, hydrologic predictions, and real-time monitoring at the bayou. This paper will evaluate its reliable performance during the recent events occurring in 2012 and 2013 and the development of a similar radar-based flood warning system for the City of Sugar Land, Texas. Having a significant role in the communication of flood information, FAS marks an important step towards the establishment of an operational and reliable flood warning system for flood-prone urban areas.

  11. An Infrastructure for a Traffic Warning System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2005-01-01

    The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure support...

  12. 49 CFR 571.125 - Standard No. 125; Warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...; (d) Salt spray (fog) test in accordance with American Society of Testing and Materials Standard B-117, Standard Method of Salt Spray (fog) testing, August 1964, except that the test shall be for 4 hours rather... flat magnesium oxide surface, and compute the quotient (percentage) of the luminance of the...

  13. The Ex Hoc Infrastructure - Enhancing Traffic Safety through LIfe WArning Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael; Eskildsen, Toke

    2004-01-01

    New pervasive computing technologies for sensing and communication open up novel possibilities for enhancing traffic safety. We are currently designing and implementing the Ex Hoc infrastructure framework for communication among mobile and stationary units including vehicles. The infrastructure...... will connect sensing devices on vehicles with sensing devices on other vehicles and with stationary communication units placed alongside roads. The current application of Ex Hoc is to enable the collection and dissemination of information on road condition through LIfe Warning Systems (LIWAS) units....

  14. The Ex Hoc Infrastructure - Enhancing Traffic Safety through LIfe WArning Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael; Eskildsen, Toke;

    2004-01-01

    New pervasive computing technologies for sensing and communication open up novel possibilities for enhancing traffic safety. We are currently designing and implementing the Ex Hoc infrastructure framework for communication among mobile and stationary units including vehicles. The infrastructure...... will connect sensing devices on vehicles with sensing devices on other vehicles and with stationary communication units placed alongside roads. The current application of Ex Hoc is to enable the collection and dissemination of information on road condition through LIfe Warning Systems (LIWAS) units....

  15. Vehicle Dynamics Approach to Driver Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youssef A. Ghoneim

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a concept for enhanced active safety by introducing a driver warning system based on vehicle dynamics that predicts a potential loss of control condition prior to stability control activation. This real-time warning algorithm builds on available technologies such as the Electronic Stability Control (ESC. The driver warning system computes several indices based on yaw rate, side-slip velocity, and vehicle understeer using ESC sensor suite. An arbitrator block arbitrates between the different indices and determines the status index of the driving vehicle. The status index is compared to predetermined stability levels which correspond to high and low stability levels. If the index exceeds the high stability level, a warning signal (haptic, acoustic, or visual is issued to alert the driver of a potential loss of control and ESC activation. This alert will remain in effect until the index is less than the low stability level at which time the warning signal will be terminated. A vehicle speed advisory algorithm is integrated with the warning algorithm to provide a desired vehicle speed of a vehicle traveling on a curve. Simulation results and vehicle tests were conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the warning algorithm.

  16. Seismic Activity: Public Alert and Warning: Legal Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zocchetti, D.

    2007-12-01

    governmental actions during emergency situations. At a minimum, the courts have shown a high degree of deference and provided immunity protection for discretionary governmental actions. For example, government organizations are often protected from legal redress for making basic policy decisions such as whether or not to implement an early warning system for emergency actions. Some national and state governments, however, have gone further to provide a legal shield of immunity through specific statutory enactments. Statutory protections generally extend to both the governmental organizations and the decision makers therein. In contrast, these protections are not always extended to third parties such as private businesses, which are often part of the chain of people and organizations that are critical for providing emergency notifications to the public. These businesses include the warning devices manufacturers, the communications systems installers, the software developers, and many other non-governmental parties essential to notifying the public. It can be argued that the legal risk in providing these private sector products or services serves to ensure their quality. But these businesses' real or perceived risk of liability could dissuade their participation in the notification system, or at least chill their innovation. Those involved in designing, developing, implementing, and operating emergency notification systems must consider how their unique situation will be impacted and potentially altered by the legal environment, or in some cases how they should affect change to that legal environment in order to have successful warning systems.

  17. What Are the Warning Signs of Stroke?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cardiovascular Conditions What Are the Warning Signs of Stroke? Brain tissue affected by blockage Stroke is the fifth leading cause of death in ... over 55 years old have more chance of stroke, and the risk gets greater as you get ...

  18. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2008)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  19. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2010)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  20. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2011)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  1. National Weather Service County Warning Area Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains polygons corresponding to the County Warning Areas (CWAs) of each Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in the National Weather Service (NWS).

  2. FDA Warns About Stem Cell Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home For Consumers Consumer Updates FDA Warns About Stem Cell Claims Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing ... blood-forming system. back to top Regulation of Stem Cells FDA regulates stem cells in the U.S. to ...

  3. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  4. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2009)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  5. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2007)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  6. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2006)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  7. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  8. The SuperNova Early Warning System

    OpenAIRE

    Scholberg, K.

    2008-01-01

    A core collapse in the Milky Way will produce an enormous burst of neutrinos in detectors world-wide. Such a burst has the potential to provide an early warning of a supernova's appearance. I will describe the nature of the signal, the sensitivity of current detectors, and SNEWS, the SuperNova Early Warning System, a network designed to alert astronomers as soon as possible after the detected neutrino signal.

  9. Internet sex and dating sites need warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenore, Peter L

    2006-01-01

    For this issue's Commentary column, Peter L. Tenore, MD, discusses risk for infection with HIV or acquisition of sexually transmitted diseases associated with the use of the Internet to find sexual partners and presents results of an informal survey to determine whether Internet sites used to find sexual partners provide warnings about sexually transmitted diseases and HIV. He also calls for the operators of such sites to add warnings to their sites.

  10. Overview of laser warning technology%"解剖"激光告警

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱家健

    2009-01-01

    介绍了激光告警的作用,分析了激光告警器的原理、性能要求和分类,然后分别阐述了典型的光谱识别型、相干识别型和散射探测型激光告警器,并对不同类型的激光告警器进行了比较评价.%An introduction to the role of laser warning on the battlefield is presented, with an overview of the principle, required specifications and classification of laser warning devices. Specific types are described, including those devoted to spectrum recognition, coherent recognition, and scattering detection, and their properties compared. Finally, future developments of laser warning technology are discussed.

  11. Ratings checklist for warnings: a prototype tool to aid experts in the adequacy evaluation of proposed or existing warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenorovitz, David R; Leonard, S David; Karnes, Edward W

    2012-01-01

    In the field of forensic human factors, experts are often called upon to assess and evaluate the adequacy of new or existing products' warnings or warnings systems. The usual goal of this evaluation is to arrive at a simple binary decision regarding the warning in question (i.e., does it "pass/fail", or is it "adequate/inadequate"). However, such a warning assessment process may in fact be quite complex and multidimensional in its execution. The existing warnings research literature has identified a fairly large number of warnings features or factors likely to have an impact on a given warning's effectiveness or adequacy. The tool addressed in this article is intended for use by a warnings expert (as opposed to one less knowledgeable and informed about complex warnings issues), and can serve as a reminder checklist to help ensure that the expert has taken into consideration the most relevant features or factors during such a warnings adequacy assessment.

  12. Instructors' Use of Trigger Warnings and Behavior Warnings in Abnormal Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boysen, Guy A.; Wells, Anna Mae; Dawson, Kaylee J.

    2016-01-01

    College students have been increasingly demanding warnings and accommodations in relation to course topics they believe will elicit strong, negative emotions. These "trigger warnings" are highly relevant to Abnormal Psychology because of the sensitive topics covered in the course (e.g., suicide, trauma, sex). A survey of Abnormal…

  13. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  14. Tsunami early warning and decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Steinmetz

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen

  15. A survey of early warning technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, G.D.; Arlowe, H.D.; Williams, J.D.

    1995-07-01

    This paper presents a survey of technologies useful in providing early warning in physical security systems. Early warning is important in virtually all types of security systems whether they are used for temporary (tactical, portable, or semi-permanent) applications, border warning, fixed-site detection, or standoff surveillance detection. With the exception of the standoff surveillance detection systems, all systems discussed in this paper usually involve a moving target. The fact that a person(s) to be detected in a standoff surveillance scenario is not moving presents challenging problems and requires different applications of technology. The technologies commonly used to detect moving targets and some suggestions for detection of stationary targets are addressed in this paper.

  16. Automatic earthquake confirmation for early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuyuk, H. S.; Colombelli, S.; Zollo, A.; Allen, R. M.; Erdik, M. O.

    2015-07-01

    Earthquake early warning studies are shifting real-time seismology in earthquake science. They provide methods to rapidly assess earthquakes to predict damaging ground shaking. Preventing false alarms from these systems is key. Here we developed a simple, robust algorithm, Authorizing GRound shaking for Earthquake Early warning Systems (AGREEs), to reduce falsely issued alarms. This is a network threshold-based algorithm, which differs from existing approaches based on apparent velocity of P and S waves. AGREEs is designed to function as an external module to support existing earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) and filters out the false events, by evaluating actual shaking near the epicenter. Our retrospective analyses of the 2009 L'Aquila and 2012 Emilia earthquakes show that AGREEs could help an EEWS by confirming the epicentral intensity. Furthermore, AGREEs is able to effectively identify three false events due to a storm, a teleseismic earthquake, and broken sensors in Irpinia Seismic Network, Italy.

  17. Natural risk warning: comparison of two methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cavallo

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Italian network of "Centri Funzionali" is now reaching operational status both in hydro-meteorological risk forecasting and support to the decision making of administrations that issue natural risk warning. Each centre operates for its district of influence. In order to have a nationwide common standard the National Civil Protection Department proposed a quantitative warning methodology based on the definition of rainfall thresholds correlated to historical damages. In the first phase the thresholds have been defined using two studies that cover all Italy: the VAPI (statistics of extreme rainfall and discharges, see reference and the AVI (database of historical flood and landslide events and reported damages, see reference. This work presents one year back analysis that compares the new methodology and the one that has been usied since 2000 by the Liguria Region Meteorological Centre with regard to flood warning, pinpointing the performance differences in terms of false and missed alerts.

  18. Interactive early warning technique based on SVDD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    After reviewing current researches on early warning,it is found that"bad" data of some systems is not easy to obtain,which makes methods proposed by these researches unsuitable for monitored systems.An interactive early warning technique based on SVDD(support vector data description)is proposed to adopt"good" data as samples to overcome the difficulty in obtaining the"bad"data.The process consists of two parts:(1)A hypersphere is fitted on"good"data using SVDD.If the data object are outside the hypersphere,it would be taken as"suspicious";(2)A group of experts would decide whether the suspicious data is"bad"or"good",early warning messages would be issued according to the decisions.And the detailed process of implementation is proposed.At last,an experiment based on data of a macroeconomic system is conducted to verify the proposed technique.

  19. A new French flash flood warning service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Saint-Aubin Céline

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The French State services in charge of flood forecasting supervise about 22,000 km among the 120,000 km of the French rivers within a warning procedure called Vigilance Crues (http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr. Some recent dramatic flood events on small watershed not covered by Vigilance Crues highlight the need for a new warning procedure to anticipate violent flash floods that regularly affect rapid river-basins. Thus the concept emerged of an automatic warning service specifically dedicated to local crisis managers. This service will be less elaborated than Vigilance Crues, probably with false alarms and missed events sometimes, but it will deliver a first information. The generation of the warning is based on a simple rainfall-runoff hydrological model developed by Irstea on all French rivers, fed with radar-gauge rainfall grids provided by Meteo-France. Every fifteen minutes, the hydrological model estimates the discharges on the rivers eligible to the service and determine if certain thresholds corresponding to a high or very high flood are likely to be exceeded. The last step of the real-time system is to determine which municipalities are concerned with flood risk and send them an automatic warning by voice call, optionally by sms or email. A specific web interface is available for users to monitor the evolution of the flood risk on maps that are updated every 15 minutes. This new flash flood warning service will be operational early 2017 as a free service for about 8,000 French municipalities.

  20. Recasting the warning-response problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, C.O.; Otto, F.; Brante, J.;

    2010-01-01

    , accepted, prioritized and responded to by policy-makers. This has led to a simplistic understanding of how communicative, cognitive and political processes involving a range of actors can influence both the perception as well as the response to warnings. The paper also criticizes that many normative...... judgments about the desirability of preventive action are suffering from hindsight bias and insufficient attention to balancing problems related to risk substitution, opportunity costs and moral hazard. In response to these deficits, the paper puts forward a modified model of warning as a persuasive process...

  1. Angiographic warning of hemorrhagic transformation after stent retriever thrombectomy procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vollman, Andrew T; Bruno, Charles A; Dumeer, Shifali; Malone, Hani; Meyers, Philip M

    2014-01-01

    This study reports cerebral angiographic findings observed after stent retriever thrombectomy that is suggestive of a higher risk of hemorrhagic transformation (HT). A woman aged 65-75 presented with a right middle cerebral artery syndrome confirmed by non-contrast CT brain scan. Endovascular revascularization using the Solitaire device was placed across the thromboembolic occlusion and thromboembolectomy was performed. Angiography showed complete recanalization of the left internal carotid artery, anterior and middle cerebral artery branches. Twelve hours following the procedure the patient had a hemorrhagic conversion of the ischemic infarct with significant mass effect causing herniation. Despite surgical intervention (hemicraniectomy) the patient died. The angiographic features following revascularization of the vessels distal to the occlusion showed subtle dilations which were visualized at the branch points of the vessels. This may be a warning sign of increased risk of HT.

  2. Streamlining Tsunami Messages (e.g., Warnings) of the US National Tsunami Warning Center, Palmer, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, C. E.; Sorensen, J. H.; Vogt Sorensen, B.; Whitmore, P.; Johnston, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    Spurred in part by world-wide interest in improving warning messaging for and response to tsunamis in the wake of several catastrophic tsunamis since 2004 and growing interest at the US National Weather Service (NWS) to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program, the NWS Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii have made great progress toward enhancing tsunami messages. These include numerous products, among them being Tsunami Warnings, Tsunami Advisories and Tsunami Watches. Beginning in 2010 we have worked with US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Warning Coordination and Mitigation and Education Subcommittee members; Tsunami Program administrators; and NWS Weather Forecast Officers to conduct a series of focus group meetings with stakeholders in coastal areas of Alaska, American Samoa, California, Hawaii, North Carolina, Oregon, US Virgin Islands and Washington to understand end-user perceptions of existing messages and their existing needs in message products. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a Tsunami Warning Message Metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order, Formatting, and Receiver Characteristics. A sample message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met, whether the message is a full length or short message. Incrementally, this work contributed to revisions in the format, content and style of message products issued by the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC). Since that time, interest in short warning messages has continued to increase and in May 2016 the NTWC began efforts to revise message products to take advantage of recent NWS policy changes allowing use of mixed-case text

  3. Too Many Americans Have High Blood Pressure, Doctors Warn

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... news/fullstory_163468.html Too Many Americans Have High Blood Pressure, Doctors Warn With February designated National Heart Month, ... physicians warns that too many Americans struggle with high blood pressure. High blood pressure is a major risk factor ...

  4. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2013-01-01

    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the probabi

  5. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions...

  6. Researchers warn of neglect to basic science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Michael

    2010-03-01

    Russia is losing its standing as a scientific powerhouse and its science is in a state of decline, according to a new report by the information-services provider Thomson Reuters. Entitled "The New Geography of Science: Research and Collaboration in Russia", the report warns that the country's research base "has a problem, and it shows little sign of a solution".

  7. Crisis management and warning procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valérie November

    2009-03-01

    territoriale du risque s’avère nécessaire.Based on two flood events that recently affected new housing areas in very different political, organisational and hydrological contexts, this article examines the practices of actors involved in emergency and crisis situations in Switzerland. In both cases, the actors are identified – through their role and their position in the various procedures related to crisis management – and an inventory is made of the documents used. The study examines how the flood events were managed, identifies the organisational changes that followed the crises, and determines how the risk was conceived and to what extent it was formalised by the different actors both before and after the floods. Finally new forecasting and warning procedures that were set up following the events are described. The study shows that floods have a decisive impact on the production of knowledge, but that this phenomenon varies according to the actors. Events such as floods also sometimes reveal the existence of "latent" knowledge, or knowledge that is available but has not yet been integrated into institutional procedures. In terms of both forecasting and crisis management, these events also provide the opportunity to test information channels and to identify and correct any problems relating to organisation, cooperation or the reliability of means of communication. Among other things, the risks and crises related to flooding modify the dynamics and policies of the local area as a result of readjustments in the networks of actors. The introduction of emergency and crisis management measures appears more effective, however, than the reorganisation of planning and development procedures, a process which generally takes a lot longer. Nevertheless, since the recollection of events tends to fade with time, it is important that risks find a more concrete form of spatial expression on the landscape.

  8. Tsunami Warning Services for the Caribbean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, P. M.; Ferris, J. C.; Weinstein, S. A.

    2007-05-01

    Tsunami warning and watch services are currently provided to the Caribbean region through a collaborative effort between the two NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs): the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska. The WCATWC, in coordination with the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN), provides fast-response warning services to the U.S. territories of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PR/VI). The PTWC provides regional watch services to other countries throughout and surrounding the Caribbean Sea as part of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions. This collaboration is analogous to the TWC's responsibilities in the Pacific basin: the WCATWC provides fast-response warning services for the U.S. west coast states, Alaska, and British Columbia in Canada, while the PTWC provides regional services for countries throughout and surrounding the Pacific Ocean (as well as a fast-response service for the U.S. State of Hawaii). Caribbean seismic data are transmitted to the TWCs through several means. The PRSN directly exports data to the WCATWC, providing the Center sufficient seismic data for the PR/VI region. Additionally, the PRSN provides the TWCs with data gathered from other Caribbean nations. Using modern communication capabilities, the seismic data can be processed at the TWCs at the same time it is processed locally. Another source of high- quality seismic data is the new USGS nine-station array that circles the region. The Global Seismic Network maintains several stations in Caribbean, Central American, and South American nations which are available in real-time to the TWCs. Unfortunately, sea level data coverage is sporadic in the region. The PR/VI has a relatively dense array of coastal tide gages, but coastal tide gage coverage is very sparse for the rest of the Caribbean basin. Three deep-ocean pressure

  9. Electrical Distribution System (EDS) and Caution and Warning System (CWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcclung, T.

    1975-01-01

    An astronaut caution and warning system is described which monitors various life support system parameters and detects out-of-range parameter conditions. The warning system generates a warning tone and displays the malfunction condition to the astronaut along with the proper corrective procedures required.

  10. Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cova, Thomas J; Dennison, Philip E; Li, Dapeng; Drews, Frank A; Siebeneck, Laura K; Lindell, Michael K

    2016-07-13

    Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers.

  11. Non-smoking male adolescents' reactions to cigarette warnings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica K Pepper

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA is working to introduce new graphic warning labels for cigarette packages, the first change in cigarette warnings in more than 25 years. We sought to examine whether warnings discouraged participants from wanting to smoke and altered perceived likelihood of harms among adolescent males and whether these warning effects varied by age. METHODS: A national sample of 386 non-smoking American males ages 11-17 participated in an online experiment during fall 2010. We randomly assigned participants to view warnings using a 2 × 2 between-subjects design. The warnings described a harm of smoking (addiction or lung cancer using text only or text plus an image used on European cigarette package warnings. Analyses tested whether age moderated the warnings' impact on risk perceptions and smoking motivations. RESULTS: The warnings discouraged most adolescents from wanting to smoke, but lung cancer warnings discouraged them more than addiction warnings did (60% vs. 34% were "very much" discouraged, p<.001. Including an image had no effect on discouragement. The warnings affected several beliefs about the harms from smoking, and age moderated these effects. Adolescents said addiction was easier to imagine and more likely to happen to them than lung cancer. They also believed that their true likelihood of experiencing any harm was lower than what an expert would say. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that warnings focusing on lung cancer, rather than addiction, are more likely to discourage wanting to smoke among adolescent males and enhance their ability to imagine the harmful consequences of smoking. Including images on warnings had little effect on non-smoking male adolescents' discouragement or beliefs, though additional research on the effects of pictorial warnings for this at-risk population is needed as the FDA moves forward with developing new graphic labels.

  12. Impacts of Fog Characteristics, Forward Illumination, and Warning Beacon Intensity Distribution on Roadway Hazard Visibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullough, John D; Rea, Mark S

    2016-01-01

    Warning beacons are critical for the safety of transportation, construction, and utility workers. These devices need to produce sufficient luminous intensity to be visible without creating glare to drivers. Published standards for the photometric performance of warning beacons do not address their performance in conditions of reduced visibility such as fog. Under such conditions light emitted in directions other than toward approaching drivers can create scattered light that makes workers and other hazards less visible. Simulations of visibility of hazards under varying conditions of fog density, forward vehicle lighting, warning beacon luminous intensity, and intensity distribution were performed to assess their impacts on visual performance by drivers. Each of these factors can influence the ability of drivers to detect and identify workers and hazards along the roadway in work zones. Based on the results, it would be reasonable to specify maximum limits on the luminous intensity of warning beacons in directions that are unlikely to be seen by drivers along the roadway, limits which are not included in published performance specifications.

  13. LIVE DEMONSTRATION OF DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Wächter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of earthquakes, for the monitoring of sea level, ocean floor events, and ground displacements. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems. The introductory part of the demonstration briefly explains the DEWS project, the CCUI in conjunction with operators’ workflow, the system architecture, details of information logistics and the virtual scenario of live demonstration. The live demonstration exhibits the CCUI on screen and the service

  14. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  15. Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yangbo; Zhou, Haolan; Zhang, Hui; Du, Guoming; Zhou, Jinhui

    2015-05-01

    In the past decades, China has observed rapid urbanization, the nation's urban population reached 50% in 2000, and is still in steady increase. Rapid urbanization in China has an adverse impact on urban hydrological processes, particularly in increasing the urban flood risks and causing serious urban flooding losses. Urban flooding also increases health risks such as causing epidemic disease break out, polluting drinking water and damaging the living environment. In the highly urbanized area, non-engineering measurement is the main way for managing urban flood risk, such as flood risk warning. There is no mature method and pilot study for urban flood risk warning, the purpose of this study is to propose the urban flood risk warning method for the rapidly urbanized Chinese cities. This paper first presented an urban flood forecasting model, which produces urban flood inundation index for urban flood risk warning. The model has 5 modules. The drainage system and grid dividing module divides the whole city terrain into drainage systems according to its first-order river system, and delineates the drainage system into grids based on the spatial structure with irregular gridding technique; the precipitation assimilation module assimilates precipitation for every grids which is used as the model input, which could either be the radar based precipitation estimation or interpolated one from rain gauges; runoff production module classifies the surface into pervious and impervious surface, and employs different methods to calculate the runoff respectively; surface runoff routing module routes the surface runoff and determines the inundation index. The routing on surface grid is calculated according to the two dimensional shallow water unsteady flow algorithm, the routing on land channel and special channel is calculated according to the one dimensional unsteady flow algorithm. This paper then proposed the urban flood risk warning method that is called DPSIR model based

  16. Physically based landslide warning at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canli, Ekrem; Mergili, Martin; Glade, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Albeit advancements in the past within the field of geotechnical engineering have led to an increasing in situ damage control in many parts of the world, heavy rainstorms still cause severe damage by triggering landslides. Landslides are usually restricted to the local scale when taking into consideration single events, however, they often tend to occur spatially abundant which makes them a regional phenomenon. This makes the necessity of regional-scale early warning systems (EWS) indispensable. When dealing with landslide EWS, it is impossible to cover all potential early warning situations. Although the calculation of rainfall thresholds is the most common approach for assessing regional landslide early warning, they only represent a simplification of the physical processes involved. In most cases, indeed, there is more than just this one causative factor involved. Here, we present an early prototype for a regional, physically based landslide EWS driven by real-time spatio-temporal rainfall data. Instead of assuming uniform rainfall over a certain area, an automated geostatistical approach is suggested which allows approximating real-time spatially distributed, hourly rainfall predictions based on gauged rainfall data available on the internet. The methodology presented in this study is especially suitable for the implementation in warning systems that contain predefined thresholds and for landslides related to a progressive increase of soil saturation and/or a rising groundwater table. The transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based slope stability (TRIGRS) model is used in a modified way to compute transient pore-pressure changes and associated changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. The geotechnical properties involved are probabilistically integrated within certain predefined ranges to account for the inherent spatial uncertainties. The result is an automatically generated probability of failure raster map that is updated hourly based

  17. Experimental evaluation of fog warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ghamdi, Ali S

    2007-11-01

    Highway safety is a major concern to the public and to transportation professionals, so the number of crashes caused by poor visibility due to fog form an alarming statistic. Drivers respond to poor visibility conditions in different ways: some slow down; others do not. Many drivers simply follow the taillights of the vehicle ahead. Accordingly, hazardous conditions are created in which speeds are both too high for the prevailing conditions and highly variable. Findings are presented from a study of traffic crashes due to fog in the southern region of Saudi Arabia. The primary objective was to assess the effectiveness of fog detection and warning system on driver behavior regarding speed and headway. This warning system includes visibility sensors that automatically activate a variable message sign that posts an advisory speed when hazardous conditions due to fog occur. The system was installed on a 2 km section of a two-lane, rural highway. A data set of 36,013 observations from both experimental and control sections at two study sites was collected and analyzed. The data included vehicle speed, volume, and classification; time headway, time of day, and visibility distance. Although the warning system was ineffective in reducing speed variability, mean speed throughout the experimental sections was reduced by about 6.5 kph. This reduction indicates that the warning system appeared to have a positive effect on driver behavior in fog even though the observed mean speeds were still higher than the posted advisory speed. From relationships found in the literature between mean driving speed and number of crashes, a speed reduction of only 5 kph would yield a 15% decrease in the number of crashes.

  18. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    OpenAIRE

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi,K.

    2013-01-01

    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the probability of dike failure, the ensuing scenarios of dike breaching, predicted flood spreading and escape routes for people from the affected areas. Results are presented on interactive decision support ...

  19. A comparison of different informative vibrotactile forward collision warnings: does the warning need to be linked to the collision event?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Rob; Ho, Cristy; Spence, Charles

    2014-01-01

    Recent research demonstrates that auditory and vibrotactile forward collision warnings presenting a motion signal (e.g., looming or apparent motion across the body surface) can facilitate speeded braking reaction times (BRTs). The purpose of the present study was to expand on this work by directly comparing warning signals in which the motion conveyed was constant across all collision events with signals in which the speed of motion was dependent on the closing velocity (CV). Two experiments were conducted using a simulated car-following task and BRTs were measured. In Experiment 1, increasing intensity (looming) vibrotactile signals were presented from a single tactor attached to the driver's waist. When the increase in intensity was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster as compared to a no-warning condition, however, they were not significantly different from constant intensity and CV-independent looming warnings. In Experiment 2, a vertical array of three tactors was used to create motion either towards (upwards) or away (downwards) from the driver's head. When the warning signal presented upwards motion that was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster than all other warning types. Downwards warnings led to a significantly higher number of brake activations in false alarm situations as compared to upwards moving warnings. The effectiveness of dynamic tactile collision warnings would therefore appear to depend on both the link between the warning and collision event and on the directionality of the warning signal.

  20. A comparison of different informative vibrotactile forward collision warnings: does the warning need to be linked to the collision event?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Gray

    Full Text Available Recent research demonstrates that auditory and vibrotactile forward collision warnings presenting a motion signal (e.g., looming or apparent motion across the body surface can facilitate speeded braking reaction times (BRTs. The purpose of the present study was to expand on this work by directly comparing warning signals in which the motion conveyed was constant across all collision events with signals in which the speed of motion was dependent on the closing velocity (CV. Two experiments were conducted using a simulated car-following task and BRTs were measured. In Experiment 1, increasing intensity (looming vibrotactile signals were presented from a single tactor attached to the driver's waist. When the increase in intensity was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster as compared to a no-warning condition, however, they were not significantly different from constant intensity and CV-independent looming warnings. In Experiment 2, a vertical array of three tactors was used to create motion either towards (upwards or away (downwards from the driver's head. When the warning signal presented upwards motion that was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster than all other warning types. Downwards warnings led to a significantly higher number of brake activations in false alarm situations as compared to upwards moving warnings. The effectiveness of dynamic tactile collision warnings would therefore appear to depend on both the link between the warning and collision event and on the directionality of the warning signal.

  1. Near-field tsunami early warning and emergency planning in the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The new European project Near-field Tsunami Early Warning and Emergency Planning in the Mediterranean Sea (NEARTOWARN faces the need to develop operational tsunami early warning systems in near-field (local conditions where the travel time of the first tsunami wave is very short, that is less than 30 min, which is a typical case in the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea region but also elsewhere around the globe. The operational condition that should be fulfilled is that the time of tsunami detection, plus the time of warning transmitting, plus the time of evacuation should not exceed the travel time of the first tsunami wave from its source to the closest evacuation zone. To this goal the time to detect of the causative earthquake should be compressed at the very minimum. In this context the core of the proposed system is a network of seismic early warning devices, which activate and send alert in a few seconds after the generation of a near-field earthquake, when a seismic ground motion exceeding a prescribed threshold is detected. Then civil protection mobilizes to manage the earthquake crisis but also to detect and manage a possible tsunami through a geographical risk management system. For the tsunami detection the system is supported by tide-gauges of radar type, a database of presimulated tsunami scenarios, and a local tsunami decision matrix. The island of Rhodes in the eastern termination of the Hellenic Arc and Trench has been selected for a pilot and operational development of the local tsunami warning system given that the island is a highly popular tourist destination, historically it was hit by large tsunamigenic earthquakes and was recently the master test-site for the pan-European FP6 tsunami research project Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European Region (TRANSFER.

  2. Perancangan Prototype Early Warning System pada Kontrol On/Off Belt Conveyor Menggunakan PLC Siemens S7-300

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufik Taufik

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, automation system become an important aspect of the manufacturing process because could make integration manufacturing process on it more effective and more efficient. PLC or Programmable Logic Controller is one kind of automation system. Many industries use PLC as automation control device in the manufacturing process to control all kind of process. For example at transportation process of coals in generator industry. Coals could be burned because main elements of coals are carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Base on this prototype early warning system design, we get the result if sensor thermocouple detects temperature larger than setpoint temperature (it is 2000C, then PLC will give an order to shut down the output, that is a belt conveyor. The result of this prototype design could use at coals transportation as an early warning system. The design of prototype early warning system could detect and prevent fire because of the consequence of burned coals until spreading of fire could be avoided.

  3. Implicit motivational impact of pictorial health warning on cigarette packs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Volchan

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The use of pictorial warning labels on cigarette packages is one of the provisions included in the first ever global health treaty by the World Health Organization against the tobacco epidemic. There is substantial evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of graphic health warning labels on intention to quit, thoughts about health risks and engaging in cessation behaviors. However, studies that address the implicit emotional drives evoked by such warnings are still underexplored. Here, we provide experimental data for the use of pictorial health warnings as a reliable strategy for tobacco control. METHODS: Experiment 1 pre-tested nineteen prototypes of pictorial warnings to screen for their emotional impact. Participants (n = 338 were young adults balanced in gender, smoking status and education. Experiment 2 (n = 63 tested pictorial warnings (ten that were stamped on packs. We employed an innovative set-up to investigate the impact of the warnings on the ordinary attitude of packs' manipulation, and quantified judgments of warnings' emotional strength and efficacy against smoking. FINDINGS: Experiment 1 revealed that women judged the warning prototypes as more aversive than men, and smokers judged them more aversive than non-smokers. Participants with lower education judged the prototypes more aversive than participants with higher education. Experiment 2 showed that stamped warnings antagonized the appeal of the brands by imposing a cost to manipulate the cigarette packs, especially for smokers. Additionally, participants' judgments revealed that the more aversive a warning, the more it is perceived as effective against smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Health warning labels are one of the key components of the integrated approach to control the global tobacco epidemic. The evidence presented in this study adds to the understanding of how implicit responses to pictorial warnings may contribute to behavioral change.

  4. How does a collision warning system shape driver's brake response time? The influence of expectancy and automation complacency on real-life emergency braking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruscio, Daniele; Ciceri, Maria Rita; Biassoni, Federica

    2015-04-01

    Brake Reaction Time (BRT) is an important parameter for road safety. Previous research has shown that drivers' expectations can impact RT when facing hazardous situations, but driving with advanced driver assistance systems, can change the way BRT are considered. The interaction with a collision warning system can help faster more efficient responses, but at the same time can require a monitoring task and evaluation process that may lead to automation complacency. The aims of the present study are to test in a real-life setting whether automation compliancy can be generated by a collision warning system and what component of expectancy can impact the different tasks involved in an assisted BRT process. More specifically four component of expectancy were investigated: presence/absence of anticipatory information, previous direct experience, reliability of the device, and predictability of the hazard determined by repeated use of the warning system. Results supply indication on perception time and mental elaboration of the collision warning system alerts. In particular reliable warning quickened the decision making process, misleading warnings generated automation complacency slowing visual search for hazard detection, lack of directed experienced slowed the overall response while unexpected failure of the device lead to inattentional blindness and potential pseudo-accidents with surprise obstacle intrusion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A Video Camera Road Sign System of the Early Warning from Collision with the Wild Animals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matuska Slavomir

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a camera road sign system of the early warning, which can help to avoid from vehicle collision with the wild animals. The system consists of camera modules placed down the particularly chosen route and the intelligent road signs. The camera module consists of the camera device and the computing unit. The video stream is captured from video camera using computing unit. Then the algorithms of object detection are deployed. Afterwards, the machine learning algorithms will be used to classify the moving objects. If the moving object is classified as animal and this animal can be dangerous for safety of the vehicle, warning will be displayed on the intelligent road sings.

  6. Application of Machine Vision to Vehicle Automatic Collision Warning Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jiang-feng; GAO Feng; XU Guo-yan; YAO Sheng-zhuo

    2008-01-01

    Using the new technologies such as information technology, communication technology and electronic control technology, vehicle collision warning system(CWS) can acquire road condition, adjacent vehicle march condition as well as its dynamics performance continuously, then it can forecast the oncoming potential collision and give a warning. Based on the analysis of driver's driving behavior, algorithm's warning norms are determined. Based on warning norms adopting machine vision method, the cooperation collision warning algorithm(CWA) model with multi-input and multi-output is established which is used in supporting vehicle CWS. The CWA is tested using the actual data and the result shows that this algorithm can identify and carry out warning for vehicle collision efficiently, which has important meaning for improving the vehicle travel safety.

  7. The Innovation Research of Financial Early-Warning Index Measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The period economic fluctuation is vital for an enterprise to exist and further develop,it directly affect the enterprise financial health.So,it is significant to build up financial early-warning index and measure the warning condition that the enterprise faces and take the effective measures to eliminate. We criticize Altman's Z calculating model and build up some new indexes for enterprise financial early-warning condition measuring and making sound decision.

  8. Real-time earthquake warning for astronomical observatories

    CERN Document Server

    Coughlin, Michael; Barrientos, Sergio; Claver, Chuck; Harms, Jan; Smith, Christopher; Warner, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Early earthquake warning is a rapidly developing capability that has significant ramifications for many fields, including astronomical observatories. In this work, we describe the susceptibility of astronomical facilities to seismic events, including large telescopes as well as second-generation ground-based gravitational-wave interferometers. We describe the potential warning times for observatories from current seismic networks and propose locations for future seismometers to maximize warning times.

  9. Implicit Motivational Impact of Pictorial Health Warning on Cigarette Packs

    OpenAIRE

    Eliane Volchan; Isabel A David; Gisella Tavares; Nascimento, Billy M.; Oliveira, Jose M.; Sonia Gleiser; Andre Szklo; Cristina Perez; Tania Cavalcante; Mirtes G. Pereira; Leticia Oliveira

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The use of pictorial warning labels on cigarette packages is one of the provisions included in the first ever global health treaty by the World Health Organization against the tobacco epidemic. There is substantial evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of graphic health warning labels on intention to quit, thoughts about health risks and engaging in cessation behaviors. However, studies that address the implicit emotional drives evoked by such warnings are still underexplored. H...

  10. Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

  11. A Quantitative Analysis of Variability Warnings in Linux

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melo, Jean; Flesborg, Elvis; Brabrand, Claus

    2015-01-01

    In order to get insight into challenges with quality in highly-configurable software, we analyze one of the largest open source projects, the Linux kernel, and quantify basic properties of configuration-related warnings. We automatically analyze more than 20 thousand valid and distinct random...... configurations, in a computation that lasted more than a month. We count and classify a total of 400,000 warnings to get an insight in the distribution of warning types, and the location of the warnings. We run both on a stable and unstable version of the Linux kernel. The results show that Linux contains...

  12. A Plant Damage State Early Warning System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsieh, Chih Yao; Chou, Hwai Pwu [National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu (China)

    2014-08-15

    In case of a severe accident, operators need to follow the emergency operating procedures (EOPS) to limit the damage. In order to assist operators to face a lot of Plant Damage States (PDS) suddenly, we try to predict and identify the Plant Damage State (PDS) for early warning and decision making. In this study, Containment Event Tree (CET) is used in this event-oriented approach to help severe accident management. The Taipower Lungmen nuclear power station (LNPS), an advanced boiling water reactor, is chosen for case study. The LNPS full scope engineering simulator is used to generate the testing data for method development.

  13. Early Warning System Ghana: how to successfully implement a disaster early warning system in a data scarce region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.

  14. Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xiaodong; Jiang Haikun; Li Mingxiao

    2008-01-01

    Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting (early warning) has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the aualysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures (buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.

  15. Students' Perceptions of Trigger Warnings in Medical Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beverly, Elizabeth A; Díaz, Sebastián; Kerr, Anna M; Balbo, Jane T; Prokopakis, Kayla E; Fredricks, Todd R

    2017-07-28

    Phenomenon: Trigger warnings are verbal statements or written warnings that alert students in advance to potentially distressing material. Medical education includes numerous subjects frequently identified as triggers, such as abuse, rape, self-injurious behaviors, eating disorders, drug and alcohol addiction, and suicide. Thus, exploring medical students' perceptions of trigger warnings may provide a valuable perspective on the use of these warnings in higher education. As part of a larger descriptive, cross-sectional survey study on medical education, we assessed 1st- and 2nd-year medical students' perceptions of trigger warnings in the preclinical curriculum. Five questions specific to trigger warnings explored students' knowledge, prior experience, and perceptions of trigger warnings in medical education. Frequencies of individual question responses were calculated, and qualitative data were analyzed via content and thematic analyses. Of the 424 medical students invited to participate, 259 completed the survey (M = 24.8 years, SD + 3.4, 51.4% female, 76.1% White, 53.7% 1st-year students). Few students (11.2%) were aware of the term trigger warning and its definition. However, after being presented with a formal definition on the online survey, 38.6% reported having had a professor use one. When asked whether they supported the use of trigger warnings in medical education, respondents were distributed fairly equally by response (yes = 31.0%, maybe = 39.2%, no = 29.7%). Qualitative analysis revealed three themes: (a) Trigger Warnings Allow Students to Know What is Coming and Prepare Themselves: Respondents believed that trigger warnings would benefit students with a history of trauma by providing them additional time to prepare for the material and, if appropriate, seek professional help; (b) Students Need to Learn How to Handle Distressing Information: Respondents agreed that they needed to learn and cope with highly sensitive material because they would be

  16. Warning labels formulated as questions positively influence smoking-related risk perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glock, S.; Müller, B.C.N.; Ritter, S.M.

    2013-01-01

    Research on warning labels printed on cigarette packages has shown that fear inducing health warnings might provoke defensive responses. This study investigated whether reformulating statements into questions could avoid defensive reactions. Smokers were presented with either warning labels formulat

  17. Multimodal warnings to enhance risk communication and safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haas, E.C.; Erp, J.B.F. van

    2014-01-01

    Multimodal warnings incorporate audio and/or skin-based (tactile) cues to supplement or replace visual cues in environments where the user’s visual perception is busy, impaired, or nonexistent. This paper describes characteristics of audio, tactile, and multimodal warning displays and their role in

  18. 75 FR 69523 - Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-12

    ... descriptive printed matter a brief statement of, among other things, the relevant warnings. Moreover, a.... Specifically, the new required warnings are designed to clearly and effectively convey the negative health... at p. 89; see also Ref. 19 at p. 158). Research has shown that some adolescents report symptoms of...

  19. 49 CFR 218.73 - Warning signal display.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... signal display. (a) Warning signals, i.e., a white disk with the words “Occupied Camp Car” in black.... Once the signals have been displayed— (1) The camp cars may not be moved for coupling to other rolling...) Warning signals indicating the presence of occupied camp cars, displayed in accordance with §§ 218.75 and...

  20. The investigation of early warning signs of aggression in forensic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    prof Berno van Meijel; Mirjan van Leeuwen; Mieke Grypdonck; Frans Fluttert; Bjørkly Stal

    2012-01-01

    Aims and objectives. The Forensic Early Warning Signs of Aggression Inventory (FESAI) was developed to assist nurses and patients in identifying early warning signs and constructing individual early detection plans (EDP) for the prevention of aggressive incidents. The aims of this research were as f

  1. Tactical Checkpoint: Hail/Warn Suppress/Stop (Poster)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-15

    distractor , optical suppression , human behavior, checkpoint, ambient light, driver suppression , human experimentation, light, paintball, obscuration...HAIL/WARN AND - SUPPRESS /STOP Poster Presented at the 2010 Directed Energies Professional Society Meeting, 15-19 November 2010. 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER...warning to a driver that is approaching a checkpoint. The laser, MCNC light, and the windshield obscuration were evaluated for their suppression

  2. 21 CFR 330.2 - Pregnancy-nursing warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pregnancy-nursing warning. 330.2 Section 330.2 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS... AND NOT MISBRANDED General Provisions § 330.2 Pregnancy-nursing warning. A pregnancy-nursing...

  3. 46 CFR 98.30-33 - Warning signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signals. 98.30-33 Section 98.30-33 Shipping... Warning signals. (a) If the vessel is moored, no person may transfer to or from a portable tank a product... a red flag. (c) The signal required in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this section must be visible on all...

  4. 49 CFR 393.19 - Hazard warning signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Hazard warning signals. 393.19 Section 393.19... signals. The hazard warning signal operating unit on each commercial motor vehicle shall operate independently of the ignition or equivalent switch, and when activated, cause all turn signals required by § 393...

  5. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wächter

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

    Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.

    In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.

    In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  6. Warning signs prior to aggressive behavior in child psychiatric units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faay, M.D.M.; Valenkamp, M.W.; Nijman, H.L.I.

    2017-01-01

    This study aims at detecting and categorizing early warning signs of aggressive behavior in child psychiatric units. We analyzed 575 violent incident report forms and developed a coding scheme consisting of 16 warning signs. From the 575 incident report forms, a total of 1087 signs were coded. Most

  7. The Effect of Cancer Warning Statements on Alcohol Consumption Intentions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettigrew, Simone; Jongenelis, Michelle I.; Glance, David; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Pratt, Iain S.; Slevin, Terry; Liang, Wenbin; Wakefield, Melanie

    2016-01-01

    In response to increasing calls to introduce warning labels on alcoholic beverages, this study investigated the potential effectiveness of alcohol warning statements designed to increase awareness of the alcohol-cancer link. A national online survey was administered to a diverse sample of Australian adult drinkers (n = 1,680). Along with…

  8. Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Tornado Warning Polygons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindell, M. K.; Huang, S. K.; Wei, H. L.; Samuelson, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    To provide people with more specific information about tornado threats, the National Weather Service has replaced its county-wide warnings with smaller warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area. However, tornado warning polygons do not have a standardized definition regarding tornado strike probabilities (ps) so it is unclear how warning recipients interpret them. To better understand this issue, 155 participants responded to 15 hypothetical warning polygons. After viewing each polygon, they rated the likelihood of a tornado striking their location and the likelihood that they would take nine different response actions ranging from continuing normal activities to getting in a car and driving somewhere safer. The results showed participants inferred that the ps was highest at the polygon's centroid, lower just inside the edges of the polygon, still lower (but not zero) just outside the edges of the polygon, and lowest in locations beyond that. Moreover, higher ps values were associated with lower expectations of continuing normal activities and higher expectations of seeking information from social sources (but not environmental cues) and higher expectations of seeking shelter (but not evacuating in their cars). These results indicate that most people make some errors in their ps judgments but are likely to respond appropriately to the ps they infer from the warning polygons. Overall, the findings from this study and other research can help meteorologists to better understand how people interpret the uncertainty associated with warning polygons and, thus, improve tornado warning systems.

  9. Silent Warning: Understanding the National Terrorism Advisory System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    examination of a terrorism warning system must qualitatively accommodate the complex warning community, determine the level of decision advantage it...costs incurred by state and local governments—and the potential economic losses from reductions in consumer confidence, travel, and tourism —only makes

  10. Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arattano, Massimo; Marchi, Lorenzo

    2008-04-04

    Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows), their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and nonstructural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall) and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche pendulums, photocells

  11. Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Marchi

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows, their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and nonstructural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche

  12. Speak Simply When Warning About After Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, A. J.; Hardebeck, J.; Page, M. T.; van der Elst, N.; Wein, A. M.

    2016-12-01

    When a fault in the ground slips, the ground moves fast and can shake hard. After a big ground shake, there are more shakes. We call them after shocks and these can happen over a long time, for many years. An after shock can shake the ground more than it shook the first time. These shocks can shake and break places where people live and work, make rocks fall down and the ground go soft and wet, and hurt or kill people. After shocks also make people worry. If people are scared, then they may leave the area and not come back. To help people be safe and feel calm we want to tell them what may happen. We often use big words and lots of numbers to give the chances for the number of shakes over days, weeks, and years. That helps some people fix things and do their jobs such as those who work on roads, power, water, phones, hospitals, schools or in the money business. But big words and too many numbers can confuse a lot of people and make them worry more. Studies of talking about the ground shake problem show that it is best to speak simply to people. What if we only use the ten hundred most often used words to talk about these ground shakes. Would that work? Here is a possible warning: Last week's huge ground shake will probably make more ground shakes. This week expect to feel three to ten ground shakes and maybe one big ground shake that could break things. That big ground shake has a chance of 1 in 10. This is normal. Be safe. Stay out of broken houses, shops, and work places. When you feel the ground shake: drop, cover, and hold on. People may feel afraid or be hurt, so check on friends and family. Get some more food and water. Over time there will be fewer ground shakes, but always be ready for them. That warning gives a lot of key ideas: what may happen, whether houses could get broken, that what is happening is normal, and what people may feel and should do. These are the key parts of a good warning. Maybe we should use the most often used words all the time.

  13. An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonry, John L.

    2011-01-01

    Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. It is not possible to detect all hazardous asteroids, and the efforts to detect them years before they strike are only advancing slowly. Similarly, ideas for mitigation of the danger from an impact by moving the asteroid are in their infancy. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. With enough warning, a small asteroid impact should not cause loss of life, and even portable property might be preserved. We describe an early warning system that could provide a week’s notice of most sizeable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This may be all the mitigation needed or desired for small asteroids, and it can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. This system, dubbed Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100 km that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night. Software automatically registers a comparison with the unchanging sky and identifies everything that has moved or changed. Communications between the observatories lock down the orbits of anything approaching the Earth, within one night if its arrival is less than a week. The sensitivity of the system permits detection of 140 m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact and 50 m asteroids a week before arrival. An ATLAS alarm, augmented by other observations, should result in a determination of impact location and time that is accurate to a few kilometers and a few seconds. In addition to detecting and warning of approaching asteroids, ATLAS will continuously monitor the changing universe around us: most of the variable stars in our Galaxy, many microlensing events from stellar

  14. Digital Devices and Distracted Doctoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossey, Garry

    2015-04-01

    During the past twenty years a digital sea change has affected our world. Digital devices have changed the way we live and especially the way we work in our professions. As dentists, we are able to work with far greater accuracy and precision than ever before; we would be foolish not to embrace these advances. But, as is often the case with rapid cultural changes, we need to be aware of the possibility of unintended consequences that may accompany this revolution. Sound scientific studies are beginning to warn of the psychological and physiological problems of overuse of digital devices in our daily lives. We should remember that these devices are neutral. It is up to each of us to use them in ways that enhance patient care.

  15. Systematic ranging and late warning asteroid impacts

    CERN Document Server

    Farnocchia, D; Micheli, M

    2015-01-01

    We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the observations is generally short, perhaps a few hours or even less, which leads to severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process. The systematic ranging approach gets around these degeneracies by performing a raster scan in the poorly-constrained space of topocentric range and range rate, while the plane of sky position and motion are directly tied to the recorded observations. This scan allows us to identify regions corresponding to collision solutions, as well as potential impact times and locations. From the probability distribution of the observation errors, we obtain a probability distribution in the orbital space and then estimate the probability of an Earth impact. We show how this technique is effective for a number of examples, including 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA, the only tw...

  16. Operators in Yemen draw warning from Saudis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-05-04

    This paper reports that foreign oil companies with concessions in northern Yemen have been drawn into a border dispute between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. At least six companies received letters from the Saudi government warning them that steps, as yet undefined, will be taken if exploration extends into disputed areas. A second territorial dispute also appears to be brewing in the region. Iran has ejected United Arab Emirates nationals from the island of Abu Musa in the Persian Gulf, which is jointly administered by Iran and Sharjah, one of the emirates. The U.A.E. government has reported the situation to the Gulf Cooperation Council, triggering a denial from Iran that anyone has been deported from the island.

  17. Tsunami Modeling, Forecast and Warning (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, K.

    2010-12-01

    Tsunami is an infrequent natural hazard; however, once it happens, the effects are devastating and can be on global scale, as demonstrated by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Deterministic modeling of tsunami generation, propagation and coastal behavior has become popular, at least for earthquake tsunamis. Once the earthquake parameters are specified, tsunami arrival times, heights and current velocity at specific coastal points, and inland inundation area can be estimated. Such modeling has been used to make hazard maps usually by assuming largest possible earthquakes. However, smaller tsunamis than such a worst-case scenario occur more frequently. If the hazard maps are used incorrectly, it may lose reliability of coastal residents. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments, similar to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, have been made for some coasts. The output is tsunami hazard curves, i.e. annual probability (or return period) for specified coastal tsunami heights. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and a large number of hazard curves are made for each branch of logic tress representing epistemic uncertainty. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis is used for design of critical facilities but not popularly used for disaster mitigation. Tsunami warning systems, which have been significantly developed since 2004, rely on seismic and sea-level monitoring and pre-made numerical simulation. Real-time data assimilation of offshore sea level measurements can be used to update the warning levels. Tsunami from the February 2010 Chilean earthquake was recorded on many tide gauges and ocean bottom pressure gauges in the Pacific, before it arrived on the Japanese coast about 22 hours after the earthquake. The tsunami height was up to 2 m on the Japanese coast, causing fishery damage amounting 60 million US dollars, but did not cause any human damage.

  18. Insertion devices

    CERN Document Server

    Bahrdt, J

    2006-01-01

    The interaction of an insertion device with the electron beam in a storage ring is discussed. The radiation property including brightness, ux and polarization of an ideal and real planar and helical / elliptical device is described. The magnet design of planar, helical, quasiperiodic devices and of devices with a reduced on axis power density are resumed.

  19. Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability

  20. [Study on early-warning of Chinese materia medica price base on ARMA model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Feng; Mao, Yang-Dui

    2014-05-01

    This study sets up an early-warning system framework of Chinese materia medica price, using price index as early warning indicator to establish black early-warning model, with indicator of price index volatility and limit line of "price principal". The research divides warning degree into 5 parts named negative heavy warning, negative light warning, no warning, positive light warning and positive heavy warning, with 5 corresponding lights to describe the change level of the medicine price. Then make an early-warning empirical research based on Chengdu Chinese materia medica price index from December in 2010 to October in 2013. ARMA model is applied to forecast index and the result of early-warning is analyzed, and finally farmer households, companies, customers and the government are recommended respectively.

  1. Predictors for the Number of Warning Information Sources During Tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Zhen; Luo, Jianjun; Liang, Daan; Nejat, Ali

    2017-04-01

    People may receive tornado warnings from multiple information sources, but little is known about factors that affect the number of warning information sources (WISs). This study examined predictors for the number of WISs with a telephone survey on randomly sampled residents in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri, approximately 1 year after both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5) in 2011. The survey included 1006 finished interviews and the working sample included 903 respondents. Poisson regression and Zero-Inflated Poisson regression showed that older age and having an emergency plan predicted more WISs in both cities. Education, marital status, and gender affected the possibilities of receiving warnings and the number of WISs either in Joplin or in Tuscaloosa. The findings suggest that social disparity affects the access to warnings not only with respect to the likelihood of receiving any warnings but also with respect to the number of WISs. In addition, historical and social contexts are important for examining predictors for the number of WISs. We recommend that the number of WISs should be regarded as an important measure to evaluate access to warnings in addition to the likelihood of receiving warnings. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:168-172).

  2. Comparing Alcohol Marketing and Alcohol Warning Message Policies Across Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Cukier, Samantha N; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2017-08-24

    In order to reduce harms from alcohol, evidence-based policies are to be introduced and sustained. To facilitate the dissemination of policies that reduce alcohol-related harms by documenting, comparing, and sharing information on effective alcohol polices related to restrictions on alcohol marketing and alcohol warning messaging in 10 Canadian provinces. Team members developed measurable indicators to assess policies on (a) restrictions on alcohol marketing, and (b) alcohol warning messaging. Indicators were peer-reviewed by three alcohol policy experts, refined, and data were collected, submitted for validation by provincial experts, and scored independently by two team members. The national average score was 52% for restrictions on marketing policies and 18% for alcohol warning message policies. Most provinces had marketing regulations that went beyond the federal guidelines with penalties for violating marketing regulations. The provincial liquor boards' web pages focused on product promotion, and there were few restrictions on sponsorship activities. No province has implemented alcohol warning labels, and Ontario was the sole province to have legislated warning signs at all points-of-sale. Most provinces provided a variety of warning signs to be displayed voluntarily at points-of-sale; however, the quality of messages varied. Conclusions/Importance: There is extensive alcohol marketing with comparatively few messages focused on the potential harms associated with alcohol. It is recommended that governments collaborate with multiple stakeholders to maximize the preventive impact of restrictions on alcohol marketing and advertising, and a broader implementation of alcohol warning messages.

  3. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  4. Inversion of tsunami waveforms and tsunami warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Chao

    Ever since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the technique of inversion of tsunami data and the importance of tsunami warning have drawn the attention of many researchers. However, since tsunamis are rare and extreme events, developed inverse techniques lack validation, and open questions rise when they are applied to a real event. In this study, several of those open questions are investigated, i.e., the wave dispersion, bathymetry grid size and subfault division. First, tsunami records from three large tsunami events -- 2010 Maule, 2011 Tohoku and 2012 Haida Gwaii -- are analyzed to extract the main characteristics of the leading tsunami waves. Using the tool of wavelet transforming, the instant wave period can be obtained and thus the dispersive parameter mu2 can be calculated. mu2 is found to be smaller than 0.02 for all records, indicating that the wave dispersion is minor for the propagation of tsunami leading waves. Second, inversions of tsunami data are carried out for three tsunami events -- 2011 Tohoku, 2012 Haida Gwaii and 2014 Iquique. By varying the subfault size and the bathymetry grid size in the inversions, general rules are established for choosing those two parameters. It is found that the choice of bathymetry grid size depends on various parameters, such as the subfault size and the depth of subfaults. The global bathymetry data GEBCO with spatial resolution of 30 arcsec is generally good if the subfault size is larger than 40 km x 40 km; otherwise, bathymetry data with finer resolution is desirable. Detailed instructions of choosing the bathymetry size can be found in Chapter 2. By contrast, the choice of subfault size has much more freedom; our study shows that the subfault size can be very large without significant influence on the predicted tsunami waves. For earthquakes with magnitude of 8.0 ˜ 9.0, the subfault size can be 60 km ˜ 100 km. In our study, the maximum subfault size results in 9 ˜ 16 subfault patches on the ruptured fault surface

  5. Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

    2011-11-01

    Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated

  6. Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of a rockfall warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bründl, Michael; Sättele, Martina; Krautblatter, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Rockslides and rockfalls can pose high risk to human settlements and traffic infrastructure. In addition to structural mitigation measures like rockfall nets, warning systems are increasingly installed to reduce rockfall risks. Whereas for structural mitigation measures with reducing effects on the spatial extent a structured evaluation method is existing, no or only few approaches to assess the effectiveness for warning systems are known. Especially for higher magnitude rockfalls structural mitigation measures are not effective, and reliable early warning systems will be essential in future. In response to that, we developed a classification and a framework to assess the reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems (Sättele et al, 2015a; 2016). Here, we demonstrate an application for the rockfall warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012 (Sättele et al., 2015b). We show that it is necessary to design such a warning system as fail-safe construction, which has to incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. With a hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting an event and on initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on related intervention cost. We conclude that it is possible to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of warning systems, which helps to optimize mitigation strategies against rockfall events. References Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Reliability and effectiveness of warning systems for natural hazards: concept and application to debris flow warning, Rel. Eng. Syst. Safety, 142, 192-202, 2015a. Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: How reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 605, 1-14, 2015b. Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and

  7. Communication of emergency public warnings: A social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mileti, D.S. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (USA)); Sorensen, J.H. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA))

    1990-08-01

    More than 200 studies of warning systems and warning response were reviewed for this social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment of communication of emergency public warnings. The major findings are as follows. First, variations in the nature and content of warnings have a large impact on whether or not the public heeds the warning. Relevant factors include the warning source; warning channel; the consistency, credibility, accuracy, and understandability of the message; and the warning frequency. Second, characteristics of the population receiving the warning affect warning response. These include social characteristics such as gender, ethnicity and age, social setting characteristics such as stage of life or family context, psychological characteristics such as fatalism or risk perception, and knowledge characteristics such as experience or training. Third, many current myths about public response to emergency warning are at odds with knowledge derived from field investigations. Some of these myths include the keep it simple'' notion, the cry wolf'' syndrome, public panic and hysteria, and those concerning public willingness to respond to warnings. Finally, different methods of warning the public are not equally effective at providing an alert and notification in different physical and social settings. Most systems can provide a warning given three or more hours of available warning time. Special systems such as tone-alert radios are needed to provide rapid warning. 235 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.

  8. Paradoxical Effects of Warning in the Production of Children's False Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Prete, Francesco; Mirandola, Chiara; Konishi, Mahiko; Cornoldi, Cesare; Ghetti, Simona

    2014-01-01

    The effects of warning on false recognition and associated subjective experience of false recollection and familiarity were investigated in 7-to 13-year-old children and young adults (N = 259) using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Two warning conditions (warning with an example of a critical lure and warning without an example of a…

  9. Most Americans Favor Larger Health Warnings on Cigarette Packs

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_164398.html Most Americans Favor Larger Health Warnings on Cigarette Packs ... According to the study's first author, Sarah Kowitt, "Most adults, including smokers, have favorable attitudes towards larger ...

  10. Warning labels. A source of toxicity information for parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, B E; Klein-Schwartz, W; Oderda, G M; Lucy, J S

    1984-08-01

    The Hazardous Substances Act specifies that warning labels for household products contain specific signal words. This study was designed to determine whether this warning label format provides enough information for parents to accurately assess product toxicity. One hundred forty-two parents from two different sites (community health clinic, private pediatrician's office) were asked to rate the toxicity of four common household products (Crystal Drano, Lysol Basin/Tub and Tile Cleaner, Clorox Bleach, Tempera Poster Paint) and four imaginary products based on the warning labels found on them. Parents had a fairly accurate perception of the toxicity of products and the toxicity to be anticipated based on the warning label. There was considerable variability in response for products which were less toxic or nontoxic. Confusion was noted regarding the meaning of the term nontoxic.

  11. Drug Abuse Warning Network US (DAWN-NS-1997)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) survey is designed to capture data on emergency department (ED) episodes that are induced by or related to the use of an...

  12. Drug Abuse Warning Network US (DAWN-NS-1994)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) survey is designed to capture data on emergency department (ED) episodes that are induced by or related to the use of an...

  13. Application of real-time GPS to earthquake early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Richard M. Allen; Alon Ziv

    2011-01-01

      Real-time GPS can provide static-offset observations during an earthquake Real-time GPS provides a robust constrain on magnitude for warnings GPS networks should be used as a companion to seismic...

  14. Annan warns of 'content divide' between rich and poor

    CERN Multimedia

    Dickson, D

    2003-01-01

    "The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, warned today (10 December) that a "content divide" is threatening to deprive developing countries of the full benefits offered by information and communications technologies (ICTs)" (1 page)

  15. 2004 through 2010 Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that continuously monitors drug-related visits to hospital...

  16. Objective test and performance measurement of automotive crash warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabo, S.; Norcross, R. J.; Falco, J. A.

    2007-04-01

    The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), under an interagency agreement with the United States Department of Transportation (DOT), is supporting development of objective test and measurement procedures for vehicle-based warning systems intended to warn an inattentive driver of imminent rear-end, road-departure and lane-change crash scenarios. The work includes development of track and on-road test procedures, and development of an independent measurement system, which together provide data for evaluating warning system performance. This paper will provide an overview of DOT's Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety System (IVBSS) program along with a review of the approach for objectively testing and measuring warning system performance.

  17. Know the Risks, Warning Signs of Ovarian Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 163117.html Know the Risks, Warning Signs of Ovarian Cancer Older age, family history raise the odds for ... Women need to be aware their risk for ovarian cancer increases with age. Half of all cases affect ...

  18. Warnings reduce false memories for missing aspects of events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrie, Matthew P; Garry, Maryanne

    2011-01-01

    When people see movies with some parts missing, they falsely recognize many of the missing parts later. In two experiments, we examined the effect of warnings on people's false memories for these parts. In Experiment 1, warning subjects about false recognition before the movie (forewarnings) reduced false recognition, but warning them after the movie (postwarnings) reduced false recognition to a lesser extent. In Experiment 2, the effect of the warnings depended on the nature of the missing parts. Forewarnings were more effective than postwarnings in reducing false recognition of missing noncrucial parts, but forewarnings and postwarnings were similarly effective in reducing false recognition of crucial missing parts. We use the source monitoring framework to explain our results.

  19. Fentanyl-Laced 'Norco' Is Lethal, Report Warns

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_160158.html Fentanyl-Laced 'Norco' Is Lethal, Report Warns New street ... study involving the drug. The street drug combines fentanyl -- the synthetic opioid painkiller linked to the death ...

  20. FDA Issues Anesthesia Warning for Pregnant Women, Kids Under 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_162543.html FDA Issues Anesthesia Warning for Pregnant Women, Kids Under ... agency news release. She is director of the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. "Parents and ...

  1. Russian eruption warning systems for aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, C.; Girina, O.; Senyukov, S.; Rybin, A.; Osiensky, J.; Izbekov, P.; Ferguson, G.

    2009-01-01

    More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  2. An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

    CERN Document Server

    Tonry, John L

    2010-01-01

    Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. We describe an "early warning" system that could provide a week's notice of most sizable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This system, dubbed "Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System" (ATLAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100km that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night, and can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. The sensitivity of ATLAS permits detection of 140m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact, and 50m asteroids a week before arrival. An ATLAS alarm, augmented by other observations, should result in a determination of impact location and time that is accura...

  3. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  4. Number of warning information sources and decision making during tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan

    2015-03-01

    Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

    2017-01-01

    Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

  6. Earthquake Early Warning with Seismogeodesy: Detection, Location, and Magnitude Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is critical to reducing injuries and casualties in case of a large magnitude earthquake. The system must rely on near-source data to minimize the time between event onset and issuance of a warning. Early warning systems typically use seismic instruments (seismometers and accelerometers), but these instruments experience difficulty maintaining reliable data in the near-source region and undergo magnitude saturation for large events. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instruments capture the long period motions and have been shown to produce robust estimates of the true size of the earthquake source. However, GNSS is often overlooked in this context in part because it is not precise enough to record the first seismic wave arrivals (P-wave detection), an important consideration for issuing an early warning. GNSS instruments are becoming integrated into early warning, but are not yet fully exploited. Our approach involves the combination of direct measurements from collocated GNSS and accelerometer stations to estimate broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms [Bock et al., 2011], a method known as seismogeodesy. We present the prototype seismogeodetic early warning system developed at Scripps and demonstrate that the seismogeodetic dataset can be used for P-wave detection, hypocenter location, and shaking onset determination. We discuss uncertainties in each of these estimates and include discussion of the sensitivity of our estimates as a function of the azimuthal distribution of monitoring stations. The seismogeodetic combination has previously been shown to be immune to magnitude saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. Rapid magnitude estimation is an important product in earthquake early warning, and is the critical metric in current tsunami hazard warnings. Using the seismogeodetic approach, we refine earthquake magnitude scaling using P-wave amplitudes (Pd) and peak ground displacements (PGD) for a

  7. Research of internet worm warning system based on system identification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tao ZHOU; Guanzhong DAI; Huimin YE

    2006-01-01

    The frequent explosion of Internet worms has been one of the most serious problems in cyberspace security.In this paper, by analyzing the worm's propagation model, we propose a new worm warning system based on the method of system identification, and use recursive least squares algorithm to estimate the worm's infection rate. The simulation result shows the method we adopted is an efficient way to conduct Internet worm warning.

  8. Public Health Surveillance in Pilot Drinking Water Contamination Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Dangel, Chrissy; Allgeier, Steven C.; Gibbons, Darcy; Haas, Adam

    2013-01-01

    Objective This paper describes the lessons learned from operation and maintenance of the public health surveillance (PHS) component of five pilot city drinking water contamination warning systems (CWS) including: Cincinnati, New York, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Dallas. Introduction The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designed a program to pilot multi-component contamination warning systems (CWSs), known as the ?Water Security initiative (WSi).? The Cincinnati pilot has been f...

  9. Enhancement of Delivery of Warning Messages for Mobile Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Sheng Tsai

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V communication systems have been studied extensively in recent years by transportation experts worldwide. Such systems enable the transmission of warning messages (alarms between vehicles without additional roadside infrastructure. Thus, messages can be sent faster than through base stations. Because of these advantages, researchers worldwide are exploring how this technology can improve traffic safety. However, the various V2V schemes proposed thus far share the same problem: (1 unnecessary repetition of warning messages and (2 transmission to inapplicable respondents. This study proposes a new method for delivering V2V warning messages which reduces the redundant messages common in current schemes. Here, three schemes to deliver alarms are considered. One is blind flooding to broadcast alarms. Warning messages are routed by AODV protocol. Another is called Two Lanes. The broadcasting region of alarms is limited in two traffic lanes nearby a traffic accident only. And the last one is the proposed strategy where a warning message received by a car will be simply checked the prime number carried within the alarm header and decided whether the car is responsible to deliver it. If necessary, it will be forwarded to the next nodes. Otherwise, the redundant warning message shall be discarded to release system load and avoid to suspend other normal transmission proceeding. The results reveal that minimizing the delays caused by such redundant messages enables warnings to be sent to drivers more rapidly. Also, it prioritizes warning messages so that drivers are apprised of the most serious and dangerous traffic accidents. Moreover, another key finding in this paper is that the radii of the broadcasting coverage shall be adjusted carefully and adaptively to optimize the system performance.

  10. Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings

    OpenAIRE

    Parker, Dennis J.; Priest, Sally J.; Schildt, Anne; Handmer, John W.

    2008-01-01

    Flood forecasting and warning systems have a significant role to play within integrated flood risk management, either in combination with mobile structural flood defences or as part of an approach which combines a number of non-structural measures. In theory the benefits of flood warnings, in terms of community security, protection of life and flood damage reduction, should be large. The theoretical benefit potential is being driven upwards by important advances in the predictive sciences, an...

  11. Multisensory in-car warning signals for collision avoidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Cristy; Reed, Nick; Spence, Charles

    2007-12-01

    A driving simulator study was conducted in order to assess the relative utility of unimodal auditory, unimodal vibrotactile, and combined audiotactile (i.e., multisensory) in-car warning signals to alert and inform drivers of likely front-to-rear-end collision events in a situation modeled on real-world driving. The implementation of nonvisual in-car warning signals may have important safety implications in lessening any visual overload during driving. Multisensory integration can provide synergistic facilitation effects. The participants drove along a rural road in a car-following scenario in either the presence or absence of a radio program in the background. The brake light signals of the lead vehicle were also unpredictably either enabled or disabled on a trial-by-trial basis. The results showed that the participants initiated their braking responses significantly more rapidly following the presentation of audiotactile warning signals than following the presentation of either unimodal auditory or unimodal vibrotactile warning signals. Multisensory warning signals offer a particularly effective means of capturing driver attention in demanding situations such as driving. The potential value of such multisensory in-car warning signals is explained with reference to recent cognitive neuroscience research.

  12. Photovoltaic device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reese, Jason A; Keenihan, James R; Gaston, Ryan S; Kauffmann, Keith L; Langmaid, Joseph A; Lopez, Leonardo; Maak, Kevin D; Mills, Michael E; Ramesh, Narayan; Teli, Samar R

    2017-03-21

    The present invention is premised upon an improved photovoltaic device ("PV device"), more particularly to an improved photovoltaic device with a multilayered photovoltaic cell assembly and a body portion joined at an interface region and including an intermediate layer, at least one interconnecting structural member, relieving feature, unique component geometry, or any combination thereof.

  13. Photovoltaic device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Jason A.; Keenihan, James R.; Gaston, Ryan S.; Kauffmann, Keith L.; Langmaid, Joseph A.; Lopez, Leonardo C.; Maak, Kevin D.; Mills, Michael E.; Ramesh, Narayan; Teli, Samar R.

    2015-06-02

    The present invention is premised upon an improved photovoltaic device ("PV device"), more particularly to an improved photovoltaic device with a multilayered photovoltaic cell assembly and a body portion joined at an interface region and including an intermediate layer, at least one interconnecting structural member, relieving feature, unique component geometry, or any combination thereof.

  14. Concentration device

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2013-01-01

    A concentration device (2) for filter filtration concentration of particles (4) from a volume of a fluid (6). The concentration device (2) comprises a filter (8) configured to filter particles (4) of a predefined size in the volume of the fluid (6). The concentration device (2) comprises...

  15. Photovoltaic device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Jason A.; Keenihan, James R.; Gaston, Ryan S.; Kauffmann, Keith L.; Langmaid, Joseph A.; Lopez, Leonardo C.; Maak, Kevin D.; Mills, Michael E.; Ramesh, Narayan; Teli, Samar R.

    2015-09-01

    The present invention is premised upon an improved photovoltaic device ("PV device"), more particularly to an improved photovoltaic device (10) with a multilayered photovoltaic cell assembly (100) and a body portion (200) joined at an interface region (410) and including an intermediate layer (500), at least one interconnecting structural member (1500), relieving feature (2500), unique component geometry, or any combination thereof.

  16. Smokers' recall of Australian graphic cigarette packet warnings & awareness of associated health effects, 2005-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Quester Pascale G; Miller Caroline L; Hill David J; Hiller Janet E

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background In 2006, Australia introduced graphic cigarette packet warnings. The new warnings include one of 14 pictures, many depicting tobacco-related pathology. The warnings were introduced in two sets; Set A in March and Set B from November. This study explores their impact on smokers' beliefs about smoking related illnesses. This study also examines the varying impact of different warnings, to see whether warnings with visceral images have greater impact on smokers' beliefs than ...

  17. Augmented reality warnings in vehicles: Effects of modality and specificity on effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Felix; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    In the future, vehicles will be able to warn drivers of hidden dangers before they are visible. Specific warning information about these hazards could improve drivers' reactions and the warning effectiveness, but could also impair them, for example, by additional cognitive-processing costs. In a driving simulator study with 88 participants, we investigated the effects of modality (auditory vs. visual) and specificity (low vs. high) on warning effectiveness. For the specific warnings, we used augmented reality as an advanced technology to display the additional auditory or visual warning information. Part one of the study concentrates on the effectiveness of necessary warnings and part two on the drivers' compliance despite false alarms. For the first warning scenario, we found several positive main effects of specificity. However, subsequent effects of specificity were moderated by the modality of the warnings. The specific visual warnings were observed to have advantages over the three other warning designs concerning gaze and braking reaction times, passing speeds and collision rates. Besides the true alarms, braking reaction times as well as subjective evaluation after these warnings were still improved despite false alarms. The specific auditory warnings were revealed to have only a few advantages, but also several disadvantages. The results further indicate that the exact coding of additional information, beyond its mere amount and modality, plays an important role. Moreover, the observed advantages of the specific visual warnings highlight the potential benefit of augmented reality coding to improve future collision warnings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anunziato, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is

  19. Design and evaluation of security multimedia warnings for children's smartphones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzel, Wiebke; Tuchscheerer, Sven; Fruth, Jana; Kraetzer, Christian; Dittmann, Jana

    2012-02-01

    This article describes primarily the development and empiric validation of a design for security warning messages on smartphones for primary school children (7-10 years old). Our design approach for security warnings for children uses a specific character and is based on recommendations of a paediatrician expert. The design criteria are adapted to children's skills, e.g. their visual, acoustic, and haptic perception and their literacy. The developed security warnings are prototypically implemented in an iOS application (on the iPhone 3G/4G) where children are warned by a simulated anti-malware background service, while they are busy with another task. For the evaluation we select methods for empiric validation of the design approach from the field of usability testing ("think aloud" test, questionnaires, log-files, etc.). Our security warnings prototype is evaluated in an empiric user study with 13 primary school children, aged between 8 and 9 years and of different gender (5 girls, 8 boys). The evaluation analysis shows, that nearly all children liked the design of our security warnings. Surprisingly, on several security warning messages most of the children react in the right way after reading the warning, although the meaning couldn't be interpreted in the right way. Another interesting result is, that several children relate specific information, e.g. update, to a specific character. Furthermore, it could be seen that most of the primary school test candidates have little awareness of security threats on smartphones. It is a very strong argument to develop e.g. tutorials or websites in order to raise awareness and teach children how to recognize security threats and how to react to them. Our design approach of security warnings for children's smartphones can be a basis for warning on other systems or applications like tutorials, which are used by children. In a second investigation, we focus on webpages, designed for children since smartphones and webpages (the

  20. Early Warning Signals - conceptual limitations and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathiany, Sebastian; Claussen, Martin; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Due to potentially large positive feedbacks in the climate system, the existence of tipping points is under debate. At these points, small changes in forcing can lead to abrupt climate change due to the destabilising feedbacks. In order to predict such abrupt changes or to distinguish changes in stability from random state transitions, it has been proposed to exploit statistical precursors of instabilities, also called early warning signals (EWS). However, we argue that the limitations of the underlying concept generally do not allow conclusions on the mechanism of abrupt changes without substantial physical knowledge - the burden of proof lies with the applier of EWS. We demonstrate these limitations with examples from vegetation dynamics and sea ice cover change in models of very different complexity. Apart from the practical problem of short and non-stationary time-series, statistical properties such as variance and autocorrelation usually change for reasons unrelated to the system's stability. In particular, it has to be known, how the natural variability (noise) in a system is caused and how it propagates through the system. A further fundamental limitation is imposed by the large number of spatial degrees of freedom. The benefit of EWS has only been shown in idealised systems of predefined spatial extent. In a more general context like a complex climate system model, the critical subsystem that exhibits a loss in stability (hotspot) and the critical mode of the transition may be unknown. An abrupt change can therefore come as a surprise. However, we suggest that EWS can be applied as a diagnostic tool to find the hotspot of a sudden transition and to distinguish this hotspot from regions experiencing an induced tipping. For this purpose we present a scheme which identifies a hotspot as a certain combination of grid cells which maximise an EWS. The method can provide information on the causality of sudden transitions and may help to improve the knowledge on

  1. Significados e sentidos de saúde socializados por artefatos culturais: leituras das imagens de advertência nos maços de cigarro Senses and meanings of health socialized by cultural devices: readings of the warning images on cigarettes packs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogério Dias Renovato

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Neste artigo, analisamos imagens veiculadas nas embalagens de cigarros, que fazem parte das estratégias do Ministério da Saúde no combate ao tabagismo e disponibilizadas pelo Instituto Nacional de Câncer. Tais imagens trazem o discurso oficial de especialistas e constroem narrativas, entendidas como verdades, alicerçadas no conhecimento científico. Apoiamo-nos no referencial teórico dos estudos culturais, pois suas reflexões ajudam a compreender que as subjetividades são social e culturalmente construídas por vários discursos e artefatos. Não negamos o que está representado, mas estabelecemos diálogos com outras possibilidades de leituras que podem estar presentes nestes artefatos. Entendemos essas imagens como pedagogias culturais - que se comportam como textos a serem lidos, construindo representações, as quais podem ser assumidas como efeitos de verdade - e que atribuem ao sujeito a necessidade de controlar constantemente suas ações. Ao reforçar a biomedicina, as instituições de saúde reproduzem uma visão unidimensional e desconsideram a complexidade desse problema. Entendemos que as pedagogias culturais fazem parte de um território de lutas, onde sentidos e significados podem ser reelaborados, produzindo identidades híbridas, que constroem suas matrizes identitárias nesse emaranhado de relações de poder.This article analyzes the images publicized on cigarettes packs that are part of the strategies from the Ministry of Health to combat the tabagism and available from the Cancer National Institute. These images bring the official speech of specialists and build narratives, understood such as truths, based on scientific knowledge. We have supported our thesis on theoretical referential of Cultural Studies, since its reflections help to understand that the subjectiveness is social and culturally built by different speeches and devices. We do not deny what is represented, but we establish dialogues with other

  2. GITEWS -- The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauterjung, J.; Rudloff, A.

    2005-12-01

    The aim of this work is the implementation of an effective Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean. It is a component part of an Early Warning System that will also be capable of registering other natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The system integrates terrestrial observation networks of seismology und geodesy with marine measurements techniques and satellite observations. The required R & D work will be realized within the framework of a stage-plan, which will, within a short time span of 1-3 years, be able to provide effective warning on the one hand and, which will also allow for an integration of technological developments, currently undergoing further research. The initiative is coordinated by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF), represented by the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ). In view of the geological situation one has to bear in mind that Indonesia especially, due to the fact that the main islands are located next to and above the Sunda seismogenic zone, could most frequently and most intensively in the future be prone to catastrophic Tsunami events. The envisaged Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean consists of different components as broadband seismometers, GPS, tide gauges, ocean-bottom pressure sensors and GPS-Buoys. On the basis of the data and recordings registered a warning can be generated. This presentation gives insight into the creation of the 26 December 2004 Tsunami, introduces the planned technical realization of the Early Warning System, shows first model scenarios and gives an overview of the planned realization of an Early Warning System in the Indian Ocean. http://www.gfz-potsdam.de

  3. Patients’ attention to and understanding of adverse drug reaction warnings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tresa Muir McNeal

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Tresa Muir McNeal1, Colleen Y Colbert1, Christian Cable1, Curtis R Mirkes1, June G Lubowinski2, John D Myers11Department of Medicine, Texas A&M University System HSC College of Medicine, Scott & White Healthcare, Temple, TX, USA; 2RD Haynes Medical Library, Scott & White Healthcare, Temple, TX, USAIntroduction: Medications are critical to the management of patient conditions, and they can have significant effects on the success or failure of medical interventions. Patient perceptions of drug warnings play an important role in medication compliance and ultimately disease management. Several factors may affect patients’ understanding of drug warnings and drug labeling, including health literacy and interactions with physicians and pharmacists.Purpose: The purpose of this article is to provide a review of the literature related to patient perceptions of drug warnings and drug labeling. Descriptive articles and studies regarding patient perceptions and knowledge of adverse drug reaction warnings were reviewed.Methods: The following databases were utilized to search the literature related to patient perceptions of drug warnings: PubMed, Academic Search Premiere, CINAHL, Medline, Psych Info, Business Source Complete, Alternative Healthwatch, Health Source (both Nursing/Academic and Consumer additions, JSTOR, and Master File Premiere. For the purpose of this review, any peer-reviewed article was eligible. Exclusionary criteria included: articles published in languages other than English, articles/studies on patient perceptions of vaccines and chemotherapy, and articles related to perceptions of medications administered in the inpatient setting. Forty-six articles were included in the review.Results: Health literacy has been shown to have a major impact on patients’ ability to understand potential adverse reactions and instructions on correct dosing of medications. Direct communication with physicians and pharmacists is one of the most important and

  4. Microfluidic Device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, Yu-Chong (Inventor); Zheng, Siyang (Inventor); Lin, Jeffrey Chun-Hui (Inventor); Kasdan, Harvey L. (Inventor)

    2017-01-01

    Described herein are particular embodiments relating to a microfluidic device that may be utilized for cell sensing, counting, and/or sorting. Particular aspects relate to a microfabricated device that is capable of differentiating single cell types from dense cell populations. One particular embodiment relates a device and methods of using the same for sensing, counting, and/or sorting leukocytes from whole, undiluted blood samples.

  5. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  6. Conspicuity, memorability, comprehension, and priming in road hazard warning signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlton, Samuel G

    2006-05-01

    This study assessed driver reactions to 16 road hazard warning signs of various formats by projecting life-sized video of road scenes to drivers in a driving simulator. A range of measures, including attentional and search conspicuity, implicit and explicit recognition, dynamic and static comprehension, and sign priming were collected. Of the signs tested, road works and school warning signs were most often detected, remembered, and understood. Slippery surface warnings were associated with some of the lowest detection and comprehension rates. The effectiveness of the different formats depended on the type of hazard sign. In the case of road works warnings, a flashing variable message format was only slightly more conspicuous than the large dimension format, equal in comprehensibility, and perhaps somewhat worse in terms of memorability. For the school warnings, however, the flashing variable message format appeared to convey a greater sense of potential hazard, produced superior search conspicuity and priming, and was equal in terms of memorability and comprehensibility. The range of measures worked well as a whole with the two measures of conspicuity and the measure of static comprehension showing the greatest consistency.

  7. History and evolution of warning labels for automotive friction products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopelovich, Luda M; Thuett, Kerry A; Chapman, Pamela S; Paustenbach, Dennis J

    2014-04-01

    There have been claims over the years that asbestos-containing product manufacturers did not sufficiently warn end users early enough regarding the potential health hazards associated with their products (1930s-1990s). To address this issue, we compared the content of the warnings associated with asbestos-containing friction products (brakes, clutches, and gaskets) manufactured by the US automotive industries to what was expected by regulatory agencies during the time period in which an understanding of asbestos health hazards was being developed. We ended our evaluation around 1990, since asbestos-containing manufacturer supplied automotive products were functionally removed from commerce by 1985 in the United States. We assessed the warnings issued in users' manuals, technical service bulletins, product packaging materials, and labels placed on products themselves. Based on our evaluation, regulatory agencies had no guidelines regarding specific warning language for finished friction products, particularly when a product contained encapsulated asbestos fibers (i.e., modified by a bonding agent). Even today, federal regulations do not require labeling on encapsulated products when, based on professional judgment or sampling, user exposure is not expected to exceed the OSHA PEL. We concluded that, despite limited regulatory guidance, the US automotive industry provided adequate warnings with regards to its friction products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. A brief measure of reactance to health warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Marissa G; Sheeran, Paschal; Noar, Seth M; Ribisl, Kurt M; Boynton, Marcella H; Brewer, Noel T

    2017-06-01

    Reactance to persuasive messages involves perceived threat to freedom, anger, and counterarguing that may undermine the impact of health warnings. To understand reactance's effects, reliable and valid assessment is critical. We sought to develop and validate a brief Reactance to Health Warnings Scale (RHWS). Two independent samples of US adults completed the brief RHWS in studies that presented warnings on cigarette packs that smokers carried with them for 4 weeks (Study 1; n = 2149) or as digital images of cigarette packs that participants viewed briefly (Study 2; n = 1413). The three-item Brief RHWS had good internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The scale correlated with higher trait reactance and exposure to pictorial warnings, supporting its convergent validity. With respect to predictive validity, the Brief RHWS predicted perceived message effectiveness, quit intentions, avoidance of the warnings, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. The Brief RHWS can serve as an efficient adjunct to the development of persuasive messages.

  9. THE INEXPENSIVE DEVICE FOR SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Annunziato

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A new mareograph device has been designed at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission (EC in order improve the sea level network in use for the Tsunami Hazard monitoring in the Mediterranean Sea and in the North Atlantic area (NEAMTWS area of UNESCO. The instrument has the characteristic to be cheap and very effective but its reliability, duration and quality need to be determined and qualified. For this reason a number of experimental campaigns are being conducted, whose first results are presented here. In collaboration with the UNESCO/IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, responsible of the definition of the Tsunami Warning System of this geographical area, a set of 20 devices has been offered by JRC for a period of 1 year of testing of the devices; the surveys for the installation of the devices is under way and the installation should be completed by the end of 2015.

  10. Real time remote monitoring and pre-warning system for Highway landslide in mountain area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yonghui; Li, Hongxu; Sheng, Qian; Wu, Kai; Chen, Guoliang

    2011-06-01

    The wire-pulling trigger displacement meter with precision of 1 mm and the grid pluviometer with precision of 0.1 mm are used to monitor the surface displacement and rainfall for Highway slope, and the measured data are transferred to the remote computer in real time by general packet radio service (GPRS) net of China telecom. The wire-pulling trigger displacement meter, grid pluviometer, data acquisition and transmission unit, and solar power supply device are integrated to form a comprehensive monitoring hardware system for Highway landslide in mountain area, which proven to be economical, energy-saving, automatic and high efficient. Meantime, based on the map and geographic information system (MAPGIS) platform, the software system is also developed for three dimensional (3D) geology modeling and visualization, data inquiring and drawing, stability calculation, displacement forecasting, and real time pre-warning. Moreover, the pre-warning methods based on monitoring displacement and rainfall are discussed. The monitoring and forecasting system for Highway landslide has been successfully applied in engineering practice to provide security for Highway transportation and construction and reduce environment disruption. Copyright © 2011 The Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Development of an early-warning system for monitoring remote volcanoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sauvage

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available Many andesitic volcanoes are quiescent for long time periods: usually (but not always an increase in seismic activity and in deformation precedes an eruption by a few months or a few days. A UNESCO panel has put forward the concept of an early warning system for monitoring dormant volcanoes in remote regions. Simple seismic or deformation measuring devices can in principle be built for monitoring remote volcanoes. These instruments are composed of two units: 1 a processor that measures the baseline «activity» of the volcano and decides when the activity increases above a certain threshold; 2 a transmitter for long distance communication. For slow parameters like tilt or extensometry, the signal can be transmitted every few minutes or hours. For seismology, signals include a large quantity of data and therefore they are usually not transmitted. The processing unit is not easy to design because a single seismic station can record noises that are very similar to «volcanic events». Average noise level on a given time interval, event detection counters and high amplitude ground motion counters are a simple (but not exhaustive way to summarize seismic activity. The transmission of data from the field to a monitoring center is feasible by present and future satellite telemetry. We present our attempt to develop an early warning system for remote volcano monitoring with data transmission by satellite.

  12. Brief communication "Landslide Early Warning System: toolbox and general concepts"

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    E. Intrieri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We define landslide Early Warning Systems and present practical guidelines to assist end-users with limited experience in the design of landslide Early Warning Systems (EWSs.

    In particular, two flow chart-based tools coming from the results of the SafeLand project (7th Framework Program have been created to make them as simple and general as possible and in compliance with a variety of landslide types and settings at single slope scale. We point out that it is not possible to cover all the real landslide early warning situations that might occur, therefore it will be necessary for end-users to adapt the procedure to local peculiarities of the locations where the landslide EWS will be operated.

  13. On-site early-warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dino Bindi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, the development of an on-site early warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan is outlined. Several low cost sensors equipped with MEMS accelerometers are installed in eight buildings distributed within the urban area. The different sensing units communicate each other via wireless links and the seismic data are streamed in real-time to the data center using internet. Since each single sensing unit has computing capabilities, software for data processing can be installed to perform decentralized actions. In particular, each sensing unit can perform event detection task and run software for on-site early warning. If a description for the vulnerability of the building is uploaded in the sensing unit, this piece of information can be exploited to introduce the expected probability of damage in the early-warning protocol customized for a specific structure.

  14. Data Processing Model of Coalmine Gas Early-Warning System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAN Jian-sheng; YIN Hong-sheng; LIU Xiu-rong; HUA Gang; XU Yong-gang

    2007-01-01

    The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so that the data could be processed at different priority levels in C language. Two different data processing models, one with priority and the other without priority, were built based on queuing theory. Their theoretical formulas were determined via a M/M/1 model in order to calculate average occupation time of each measuring point in an early-warning program. We validated the model with the gas early-warning system of the Huaibei Coalmine Group Corp. The results indicate that the average occupation time for gas data processing by using the queuing system model with priority is nearly 1/30 of that of the model without priority..

  15. Tobacco branding, plain packaging, pictorial warnings, and symbolic consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoek, Janet; Gendall, Philip; Gifford, Heather; Pirikahu, Gill; McCool, Judith; Pene, Gina; Edwards, Richard; Thomson, George

    2012-05-01

    We use brand association and symbolic consumption theory to explore how plain cigarette packaging would influence the identities young adults cocreate with tobacco products. Group discussions and in-depth interviews with 86 young adult smokers and nonsmokers investigated how participants perceive tobacco branding and plain cigarette packaging with larger health warnings. We examined the transcript data using thematic analysis and explored how removing tobacco branding and replacing this with larger warnings would affect the symbolic status of tobacco brands and their social connotations. Smokers used tobacco brand imagery to define their social attributes and standing, and their connection with specific groups. Plain cigarette packaging usurped this process by undermining aspirational connotations and exposing tobacco products as toxic. Replacing tobacco branding with larger health warnings diminishes the cachet brand insignia creates, weakens the social benefits brands confer on users, and represents a potentially powerful policy measure.

  16. Wavelet analysis of the seismograms for tsunami warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chamoli

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The complexity in the tsunami phenomenon makes the available warning systems not much effective in the practical situations. The problem arises due to the time lapsed in the data transfer, processing and modeling. The modeling and simulation needs the input fault geometry and mechanism of the earthquake. The estimation of these parameters and other aprior information increases the utilized time for making any warning. Here, the wavelet analysis is used to identify the tsunamigenesis of an earthquake. The frequency content of the seismogram in time scale domain is examined using wavelet transform. The energy content in high frequencies is calculated and gives a threshold for tsunami warnings. Only first few minutes of the seismograms of the earthquake events are used for quick estimation. The results for the earthquake events of Andaman Sumatra region and other historic events are promising.

  17. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  18. Dynamic vibrotactile signals for forward collision avoidance warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Fanxing; Gray, Rob; Ho, Cristy; Ahtamad, Mujthaba; Spence, Charles

    2015-03-01

    Four experiments were conducted in order to assess the effectiveness of dynamic vibrotactile collision-warning signals in potentially enhancing safe driving. Auditory neuroscience research has demonstrated that auditory signals that move toward a person are more salient than those that move away. If this looming effect were found to extend to the tactile modality, then it could be utilized in the context of in-car warning signal design. The effectiveness of various vibrotactile warning signals was assessed using a simulated car-following task. The vibrotactile warning signals consisted of dynamic toward-/away-from-torso cues (Experiment 1), dynamic versus static vibrotactile cues (Experiment 2), looming-intensity- and constant-intensity-toward-torso cues (Experiment 3), and static cues presented on the hands or on the waist, having either a low or high vibration intensity (Experiment 4). Braking reaction times (BRTs) were significantly faster for toward-torso as compared to away-from-torso cues (Experiments 1 and 2) and static cues (Experiment 2). This difference could not have been attributed to differential responses to signals delivered to different body parts (i.e., the waist vs. hands; Experiment 4). Embedding a looming-intensity signal into the toward-torso signal did not result in any additional BRT benefits (Experiment 3). Dynamic vibrotactile cues that feel as though they are approaching the torso can be used to communicate information concerning external events, resulting in a significantly faster reaction time to potential collisions. Dynamic vibrotactile warning signals that move toward the body offer great potential for the design of future in-car collision-warning system. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  19. NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2005-01-01

    Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a

  20. Human factors research problems in electronic voice warning system design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, C. A.; Williams, D. H.

    1975-01-01

    The speech messages issued by voice warning systems must be carefully designed in accordance with general principles of human decision making processes, human speech comprehension, and the conditions in which the warnings can occur. The operator's effectiveness must not be degraded by messages that are either inappropriate or difficult to comprehend. Important experimental variables include message content, linguistic redundancy, signal/noise ratio, interference with concurrent tasks, and listener expectations generated by the pragmatic or real world context in which the messages are presented.

  1. VisionSense - An advanced lateral collision warning system

    OpenAIRE

    Dijck, T.; Heijden, van der, M.C.

    2005-01-01

    VisionSense is an advanced driver assistance system which combines a lateral collision warning system with vehicle-to-vehicle communication. This paper shows the results of user needs assessment and traffic safety modelling of VisionSense. User needs were determined by means of a Web-based survey. The results show, that VisionSense is most appreciated when it uses a light signal to warn the driver in a possibly hazardous situation on a highway. The willingness to pay is estimated at 300 Euros...

  2. Early warning of geohazards using space technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tronin, A.

    The societal impact of geological hazards is enormous. Every year volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and subsidence claim thousands of lives, injure many thousands more, devastate peoples' homes and destroy their livelihoods. The costs of damaged infrastructure are taken higher still by insurance premiums and run into the billions in any currency. This affects rich and poor alike, but with a disproportionate impact on the developing world. As the human population increases and more people live in hazardous areas, this impact grows unsustainably. It must be reduced and that requires increased understanding of the geohazards, improved preparedness for disasters and better ways to manage them when they occur. The inter-related disasters that comprise geohazards are all driven directly by geological processes and share ground deformation as a common thread. This means that they can be addressed using similar technology and understood using related scientific modelling processes. Geohazards are a complex phenomenon and no one method can provide all the necessary information and understanding. It is essential that Earth Observation data are integrated with airborne data, in-situ observations and associated historical data archives, and then analysed using GIS and other modelling tools if these hazards are to be understood and managed. Geohazards occur in one form or another in every country. They do not respect national boundaries and have the potential to cause changes in the atmosphere that will be truly global in effect, requiring a global observing infrastructure to monitor them. The current situation in space research of early warning of geohazards indicates a few phenomena, related with geohazard processes: Earth's deformation, surface temperature, gas and aerosol emission, electromagnetic disturbances in ionosphere. Both horizontal and vertical deformations scaled about tens centimetres and meters measured after the shock. Such deformations are recorded by In

  3. Medical device alarms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowski, Matthias; Görges, Matthias; Fried, Roland; Such, Olaf; Wrede, Christian; Imhoff, Michael

    2011-04-01

    The high number of false positive alarms has long been known to be a serious problem in critical care medicine - yet it remains unresolved. At the same time, threats to patient safety due to missing or suppressed alarms are being reported. The purpose of this paper is to present results from a workshop titled "Too many alarms? Too few alarms?" organized by the Section Patient Monitoring and the Workgroup Alarms of the German Association of Biomedical Engineering of the Association for Electrical, Electronic and Information Technologies. The current situation regarding alarms and their problems in intensive care, such as lack of clinical relevance, alarm fatigue, workload increases due to clinically irrelevant alarms, usability problems in alarm systems, problems with manuals and training, and missing alarms due to operator error are outlined, followed by a discussion of solutions and strategies to improve the current situation. Finally, the need for more research and development, focusing on signal quality considerations, networking of medical devices at the bedside, diagnostic alarms and predictive warnings, usability of alarm systems, education of healthcare providers, creation of annotated clinical databases for testing, standardization efforts, and patient monitoring in the regular ward, are called for.

  4. Flow ensemble prediction for flash flood warnings at ungauged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Caseri, Angelica; Ramos, Maria-Helena; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Jurdy, Nicolas

    2015-04-01

    Flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, are difficult to monitor and predict at the spatial and temporal scales of interest due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) need to be taken into account to provide skillful flash flood warnings with increased warning lead time. In France, the AIGA discharge-threshold flood warning system is currently being enhanced to ingest high-resolution ensemble QPFs from convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as well as probabilistic QPEs, to improve flash flood warnings for small-to-medium (from 10 to 1000 km²) ungauged basins. The current deterministic AIGA system is operational in the South of France since 2005. It ingests the operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France to run a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model at a 1-km² resolution every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates of given return periods. Warnings are then provided to the French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) and regional flood forecasting offices, based on the estimated severity of ongoing events. The calibration and regionalization of the hydrologic model has been recently enhanced to implement an operational flash flood warning system for the entire French territory. To quantify the QPF uncertainty, the COSMO-DE-EPS rainfall ensembles from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (20 members at a 2.8-km resolution for a lead time of 21 hours), which are available on the North-eastern part of France, were ingested in the hydrologic model of the AIGA system. Streamflow ensembles were produced and probabilistic flash flood warnings were derived for the Meuse and Moselle river basins and

  5. Instrumental monitoring of lahars for warning purposes: new developments along the Colima Volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coviello, Velio; Capra, Lucia; Vázquez, Rosario; Márquez, Víctor H.; Cruz, Sergio

    2017-04-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for rapid flow-like landslides can be classified into two main types: advance- and event-systems. Advance EWSs predict the flow occurrence by monitoring the parameters that may lead to initiation conditions, typically rainfall. This kind of EWSs are prone to a high number of false alarms because they are strongly affected by uncertainties in both precipitation measurements and in the estimate of rainfall thresholds. Event EWSs are based on the instrumental detection of the flow when it is already in progress. Those systems can be particularly effective to protect vulnerable infrastructures such as communication routes that do not require an excessively long alert time. However, having a much smaller lead time than advance-systems, their effectiveness strictly depends on the possibility to perform accurate and rapid measurements and to automatically process, store and validate monitoring data, that is to integrate an effective warning algorithm. In mountainous regions, several instrumented catchments exist where debris flow monitoring is performed using stage sensors, video cameras, and ground vibration detectors (GVDs). For early warning purpose, the possibility to detect debris flows from a distance is an important advantage of GVDs. In addition, most monitoring devices need to be installed in the channel bed or very close to it, with consequent great danger to be destructed. Consequently, a growing number of monitoring systems of active basins integrate a linear array of GVDs distributed along the channel, in safe locations. A debris flow warning algorithm based on geophone data was recently developed and implemented in the Gadria testing field for EWSs, Northeastern Italian Alps. This algorithm uses the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) as warning parameter instead of a classical intensity/duration threshold. The event detection algorithm adopts a non-simultaneous triggering condition requiring that at least two geophones trigger in order

  6. Range estimation techniques in single-station thunderstorm warning sensors based upon gated, wideband, magnetic direction finder technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pifer, Alburt E.; Hiscox, William L.; Cummins, Kenneth L.; Neumann, William T.

    1991-01-01

    Gated, wideband, magnetic direction finders (DFs) were originally designed to measure the bearing of cloud-to-ground lightning relative to the sensor. A recent addition to this device uses proprietary waveform discrimination logic to select return stroke signatures and certain range dependent features in the waveform to provide an estimate of range of flashes within 50 kms. The enhanced ranging techniques are discussed which were designed and developed for use in single station thunderstorm warning sensor. Included are the results of on-going evaluations being conducted under a variety of meteorological and geographic conditions.

  7. 75 FR 75936 - Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements; Research Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-07

    ... Cigarette Packages and Advertisements; Research Report AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION... warnings and accompanying graphics to be displayed on cigarette packages and in cigarette advertisements... health warning statements appear on cigarette packages and in cigarette advertisements. Section 201...

  8. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating characteristics of electromagnetic, electronic, or... limits within which the system is designed to operate....

  9. Design and Implementation of Anti Lost Bluetooth Low Energy Mobile Device for Mobile Phone

    OpenAIRE

    Prajakta S. Chavan; Uttam L. Bombale

    2014-01-01

    Today mobile phone like smart phone, tablet are very costly ranging from 300 USD to 600 USD , to avoid them to get forget at any social places, we can have mobile device(gadget) which will warn us (beep)this device is left back .To make commercialize product which will act as mobile phone watchmen, with specification and characteristic like smallest device foot print, comfortable to carry along, ultra low power consumption to increase battery life and to avoid frequent chargin...

  10. Ferroelectric devices

    CERN Document Server

    Uchino, Kenji

    2009-01-01

    Updating its bestselling predecessor, Ferroelectric Devices, Second Edition assesses the last decade of developments-and setbacks-in the commercialization of ferroelectricity. Field pioneer and esteemed author Uchino provides insight into why this relatively nascent and interdisciplinary process has failed so far without a systematic accumulation of fundamental knowledge regarding materials and device development.Filling the informational void, this collection of information reviews state-of-the-art research and development trends reflecting nano and optical technologies, environmental regulat

  11. 21 CFR 201.63 - Pregnancy/breast-feeding warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pregnancy/breast-feeding warning. 201.63 Section...) DRUGS: GENERAL LABELING Labeling Requirements for Over-the-Counter Drugs § 201.63 Pregnancy/breast... during pregnancy or while nursing has been established for a particular drug product in a new...

  12. Heeding the warning signs: further displacement predicted for Afghanistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Schmeidl

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There is currently much evidence pointing to another wave of displacement likely to occur in Afghanistan. Ignoring these early warning signs and failing to act may mean paying a higher price in the future, both financially and in human terms.

  13. Public Health Measures: Alerts and Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews various reactive and proactive alert and early warning systems that can be used for the identification of emerging risks to food safety, both within the European Union and at the global level. Recent developments include the establishment of a unit dedicated to emerging risks at

  14. The new Euskalmet coastal-maritime warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaztelumendi, Santiago; Egaña, Joseba; Liria, Pedro; Gonzalez, Manuel; Aranda, José Antonio; Anitua, Pedro

    2016-06-01

    This work presents the main characteristics of the Basque Meteorology Agency (Euskalmet) maritime-coastal risk warning system, with special emphasis on the latest updates, including a clear differentiation on specific warning messages addressing sea conditions for navigation purposes in the first 2 nautical miles, and expected coastal impacts. Some details of the warning bulletin for maritime and coastal risk situations are also presented, together with other communication products and strategies used in coastal and maritime severe episodes at the Basque coast. Today, three different aspects are included in the coastal-maritime risk warning system in Basque Country, related to the main potential severe events that affecting coastal activities. - "Galerna" risk relates to a sudden wind reversal that can severely affect coastal navigation and recreational activities. - "Navigation" risk relates to severe sea state conditions for 0-2 miles, affecting different navigation activities. - "Coastal impact" risk relates to adverse wave characteristics and tidal surges that induce flooding events and different impacts in littoral areas.

  15. Early warning of critical transitions in biodiversity from compositional disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doncaster, C. Patrick; Alonso Chávez, Vasthi; Viguier, Clément;

    2016-01-01

    of species in the community. In a stochastic simulation, sequential correlations over time switch from positive to negative as keystones prevail over canaries, and back to positive with domination of weedy species. The model finds support in empirical tests on multi-decadal time series of fossil diatom...... the identification of early-warning signals from other metrics....

  16. Drug safety and the impact of drug warnings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hostenkamp, G.; Fischer, K. E.; Borch-Johnsen, K.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To analyse the impact of drug safety warnings from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on drug utilisation and their interaction with information released through national reimbursement bodies. Methods Insurance claims data on anti-diabetic drug prescriptions in primary care in Germany ...

  17. Warning signals for poor performance improve human-robot interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brule, R. van den; Bijlstra, G.; Dotsch, R.; Haselager, W.F.G.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot's nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the robot

  18. 40 CFR 156.66 - Child hazard warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Child hazard warning. 156.66 Section 156.66 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) PESTICIDE PROGRAMS..., marketing, storage or use is remote (for example, an industrial use product); or (2) The pesticide...

  19. Warning signals for poor performance improve human-robot interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brule, R. van den; Bijlstra, G.; Dotsch, R.; Haselager, W.F.G.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot's nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the robot

  20. Warning Signals for Poor Performance Improve Human-Robot Interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brule, Rik; Bijlstra, Gijsbert; Dotsch, Ron; Haselager, Pim; Wigboldus, Daniel HJ

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot’s nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the robot

  1. Warning Signals for Poor Performance Improve Human-Robot Interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brule, Rik; Bijlstra, Gijsbert; Dotsch, Ron; Haselager, Pim; Wigboldus, Daniel HJ

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot’s nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the robot

  2. Scheme for evaluating a local queue warning system.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botma, H. & Oei, H.L.

    1977-01-01

    A method of evaluating an automatic queue warning system is outlined. The main object of the evaluation is to measure the effect of such a system on traffic behaviour and road safety, although the overall journey time is also examined. The chosen method of research entails before and after studies,

  3. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was

  4. Reactions to Graphic Health Warnings in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonnemaker, James M.; Choiniere, Conrad J.; Farrelly, Matthew C.; Kamyab, Kian; Davis, Kevin C.

    2015-01-01

    This study reports consumer reactions to the graphic health warnings selected by the Food and Drug Administration to be placed on cigarette packs in the United States. We recruited three sets of respondents for an experimental study from a national opt-in e-mail list sample: (i) current smokers aged 25 or older, (ii) young adult smokers aged 18-24…

  5. Public Health Measures: Alerts and Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews various reactive and proactive alert and early warning systems that can be used for the identification of emerging risks to food safety, both within the European Union and at the global level. Recent developments include the establishment of a unit dedicated to emerging risks at

  6. Warning signals for poor performance improve human-robot interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brule, R. van den; Bijlstra, G.; Dotsch, R.; Haselager, W.F.G.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot's nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the

  7. 46 CFR 105.45-15 - Warning signals and signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signals and signs. 105.45-15 Section 105.45-15 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS... signals and signs. (a) During transfer of cargo while fast to a dock, a red signal (flag by day and...

  8. Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.

  9. Evaluation of the Individualized Study Program: Early Warning System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunziker, Celeste M.

    The Early Warning System (EWS) of the Individualized Study Program (ISP) at the University of California, Davis, was evaluated. Disadvantaged students who have not met the university's entrance requirements are tracked by the EWS during their first year in order to identify academic problems and provide advising and support. Findings include: EWS…

  10. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeyon Janet Kim

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  11. Perception and meaning of warning signals in urban context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogel, Corsin; Polack, Jean-Dominique; Castellengo, Michèle

    1999-01-01

    Perception of warning signals in urban context points out the question of their efficiency, that is, whether they are identified or not. Results show that contextual constraints influence the perceptual threshold and the identification. The classes of signals obtained can be used to determine new...

  12. The Food Early Warning System Project in Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leblanc, M.

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes shortly the objectives of a Food Early Warning System (FEWS project, as well as its organisation. The specifie case of Somalia, where the project had to evolve in increasingly difficult situations, and the solutions used so as to preserve the output, are described.

  13. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was s

  14. Electronic gaming machine warning messages: information versus self-evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, Sally; Blaszczynski, Alex

    2010-01-01

    Regulators have extensively used warning signs in many health domains to enhance knowledge and shift attitudes and behaviors to reduce associated harm. The effectiveness of these signs is influenced by their physical attributes and content. Gambling warning signs traditionally focus on the following: informing individuals of the potentially risky outcomes of gambling and the odds of winning, encouraging gambling within affordable limits, and advertising counseling services. The limited evidence suggests that warning signs for gambling attract attention and improve knowledge but are generally ineffective in modifying players' thoughts and behaviors. Therefore, the authors aimed to determine the optimal content of messages that would enhance responsible gambling practices. The authors conclude that, in contrast with signs displaying probabilities or informing players of the risks associated with gambling, signs designed to encourage players to reflect on, appraise, evaluate, and self-regulate their actions have greater theoretical and empirical support. The authors comment that warning signs should promote the application of self-appraisal and self-regulation skills rather than the simple provision of information on odds and probabilities to maximize their effectiveness as a public health tool.

  15. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was s

  16. Diabetes Drug Gets FDA Warning Due to Amputation Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... html Diabetes Drug Gets FDA Warning Due to Amputation Risk Canagliflozin tied to a doubling of amputations of legs, feet, agency says To use the ... to increase the risk of leg and foot amputations, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration says. The ...

  17. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  18. Scientists Warn of Possible Floods Caused by Melting Glaciers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    @@ Aresearch team led by LI Xin from the Cold &Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute under CAS recently called on the authorities to set up an early warning system for the possible floods due to glacial lake outbursts in China's alpine hinterland.

  19. A communication model for interlinking national tsunami early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.; Esbri Palomares, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The integration of national Tsunami Early Earning Systems (TEWS) to ocean-wide networks is a main objective of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC) tsunami programme. The intention is to interlink national TEWSs leveraging warning communication during hazards. For this purpose a communication model has been developed enabling an efficient message exchange within a centre-to-centre (C2C) communication in a system-of-systems environment. The model, designed to be robust and simple, is based on existing interoperability standards from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization of the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). For the exchange of tsunami warning bulletins the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is used. It supports geospatial referencing by addressing geocoded Points of Interests (POIs), Areas of Interest (AOIs) and Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs). Moreover it supports hazard classification by standardized criticality parameters and the transmission of attachments, e.g. situation maps. The communication model also supports the exchange of sensor observations and measurements such as sea level data or earthquake parameters. For this purpose markup languages of the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) suite are used. Both communication products, warning bulletins and sensor observations, are embedded in an envelope providing addressing and routing information using the Emergency Data Exchange Language Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The communication model has been implemented in a first pilot based on Message Oriented Middleware (MOM). Implementation, test and validation was started in the European research project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and is continued successively in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Stimulated by the concepts and results of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and based on its sensor integration platform

  20. Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a

  1. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use. PMID:28075420

  2. 30 CFR 77.1102 - Warning signs; smoking and open flame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning signs; smoking and open flame. 77.1102... COAL MINES Fire Protection § 77.1102 Warning signs; smoking and open flame. Signs warning against smoking and open flames shall be posted so they can be readily seen in areas or places where fire...

  3. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ce Shang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

  4. Longer Term Impact of Cigarette Package Warnings in Australia Compared with the United Kingdom and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Borland, Ron; Yong, Hua; Cummings, Kenneth M.; Thrasher, James F.; Hitchman, Sara C.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Hammond, David; Bansal-Travers, Maansi

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the effects of different cigarette package warnings in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom up to 5 years post-implementation. The data came from the International Tobacco Control Surveys. Measures included salience of warnings, cognitive responses, forgoing cigarettes and avoiding warnings. Although salience of the UK…

  5. Site correction of earthquake early warning system in Ilan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiao Chu, Hsu; Liang, Wen Kuo; Jyun Yan, Huang

    2015-04-01

    When large earthquake occurs, earthquake early warning (EEW) provides alerts to urban areas of the forthcoming strong ground shaking. Depending on the specific geometry of the epicenter and the strong motion network used in EEW, the warning time can be a few seconds to tens of seconds. This warning time can be extremely important since even a few seconds can be sufficient for pre-programmed systems to have emergency response. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) had already used network EEW system to predict intensity map. Due to leveling of intensity was roughly divided into seven grades according to peak acceleration (PGA) in Taiwan, the warning message is not cautious for company, home and school use, the accuracy of predicted PGA were discuss for our result. A practical site correction approach for EEW was constructed in this study. Period parameter (τc) and an amplitude parameter (Pd)from the initial 3 seconds of P waves were calculated after Wu et al.(2005) first for each site of Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) in Ilan, Taiwan for focal depths less than 35 km and magnitude Mw>=5.0. Two pairs of linear relations had showed in each station between τc, magnitude (Mw) and Pd, hypocenter distance (R) that could be corrected individually. Prediction results of PGA from site correction based ground motion prediction equation (Jean et al. 2006) indicated that the corrected parameters of EEW in this study had improved the accuracy of ground motion prediction. Which means reasonable site correction of each station was needed for EEW system. Key works: earthquake early warning, P wave, site correction

  6. Warning system for hydrogeological hazards in Campania (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biafore, Mauro; Cristiano, Luigi; Gentile, Salvatore; Gentilella, Matteo; Giannattasio, Maurizio; Napoli, Francesca

    2010-05-01

    Campania is the Italian region with the highest population density (419 inhabitants/km2). Almost 20% of its territory (13669 km2) is affected by significant hydrogeological hazards, with related loss scenarios in almost 12% of it. The most critical hydrogeological hazard scenarios are those triggered by extreme rainfall events with duration ranging from a few tens of minutes up 72 hours: flood loss scenarios are expected in catchments with spatial extent from a few Km2 up to 5000 km2; shallow landslides and mudflows are also triggered by rainfall events within a broad range of time scales. This study presents a warning system for hydrogeological hazards, which has been operating in Campania since 2005, designed for mitigating losses due to extreme rainfall events. The warning system is structured into two stages: the meteorological forecasting stage and the hydrological monitoring stage. In the first stage, after evaluating rainfall forecasts provided by numerical weather prediction models (with a forecasting time up to 48 hours), warning messages are issued to the local municipalities grouped in 8 warning zones. Critical rainfall events are identified by three different alert levels, according to their forecasted spatial and temporal extents, each corresponding to a category of expected hazard scenarios at regional level. During the second stage, the dynamic evolution of the hydrological events is monitored by a real-time network of river stage and rain gauges, which are employed to compute one or more precursors for each loss scenario. Loss scenarios have been classified according to the temporal and spatial scales of the corresponding precursors, in order to deal with the difficulties related to the occurrence of significantly different hazard scenarios during the same rainfall event. Three threshold values have been identified for each precursor, corresponding to given hazard and alert levels. As a precursor exceeds a threshold value, warning messages are

  7. Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.

    1996-02-01

    An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

  8. GEOFON, GITEWS and the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Hoffmann, T. L.

    2008-12-01

    After the Mw=9.3 Sumatra earthquake of December 26, 2004, which generated a tsunami that affected the entire Indian Ocean region and caused approximately 230,000 fatalities, the German government funded the German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) Project. The GEOFON group of GFZ Potsdam was nominated to develop and implement the seismological component of the GITEWS system. This poster presentation describes the concept of the GITEWS Earthquake Monitoring System (EMS) and reports on its present status and progress of implementation. The major challenge for an EMS within a tsunami warning system is to determine earthquake source parameters in terms of location, size and possibly rupture propagation as quickly as possible, in order to allow counter measures before a potential tsunami may hit coastal areas. Tsunamigenic earthquakes usually occur along subduction zones, which are often close to coastal lines. In the Indian Ocean this is particularly true for the Sunda Trench off the shore of Indonesia and the Macran subduction zone off the shore of Iran. For an Indian Ocean monitoring system where short warning times are a requirement, a dense real-time network of seismic stations in Indonesia is therefore essential. It must be supplemented by a substantial number of stations in other countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. International cooperation and real-time data exchange across political boundaries are essential for successful tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean region. Within the GITEWS project, up to 40 new broadband and strong motion stations are being installed in the Indian Ocean region until 2010. Up to 22 new stations are set up in Indonesia and another 18 stations distributed over Sri Lanka, Maldives, Yemen, Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar and Israel. Real-time communication is provided by private VSAT communication systems. Another challenging task within the GITEWS project is the design and implementation of efficient and fast acquisition

  9. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  10. Atmospheric effects on voice command intelligibility from acoustic hail and warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostron, Jason H; Brungart, Timothy A; Barnard, Andrew R; McDevitt, Timothy E

    2011-04-01

    Voice command sound pressure levels (SPLs) were recorded at distances up to 1500 m. Received SPLs were related to the meteorological condition during sound propagation and compared with the outdoor sound propagation standard ISO 9613-2. Intelligibility of received signals was calculated using ANSI S3.5. Intelligibility results for the present voice command indicate that meteorological condition imposes little to no effect on intelligibility when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low (0 dB). In these two cases the signal is firmly unintelligible or intelligible, respectively. However, at moderate SNRs, variations in received SPL can cause a fully intelligible voice command to become unintelligible, depending on the meteorological condition along the sound propagation path. These changes in voice command intelligibility often occur on time scales as short as minutes during upward refracting conditions, typically found above ground during the day or upwind of a sound source. Reliably predicting the intelligibility of a voice command in a moderate SNR environment can be challenging due to the inherent variability imposed by sound propagation through the atmosphere.

  11. Use of Cancer-Linked Fibroid Device Declines After FDA Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... The report was published Aug. 23 in the Journal of the American Medical Association . For the study, Wright and colleagues collected ... Huntington Hospital, N.Y.; Aug. 23/30, 2016, Journal of the American Medical Association HealthDay Copyright (c) 2016 HealthDay . All rights ...

  12. Light Aircraft Piston Engine Carburetor Ice Detector/Warning Device Sensitivity/Effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    2 RF5B 1 0 0 0 0 1 SA26 0 0 0 0 1 1 SCOOTER 0 0 1 0 0 1 SPORTS TERK 1 0 1 0 0 2 STITSSALLA 0 0 0 0 1 1 ST3KR 0 1 0 0 0 1 TC45B 0 0 1 0 0 1 UH12D 0 1 0...and the wdter solubility characteristics of tre fuel. hntrained water will freeze in cril fuel and tend to stay in suspension longer since the...specific gravity of ice is approximately the same as that of aviation gasoline. c. Water in suspension may freeze and form ice crystals of sufficient size

  13. Smokers’ and E-Cigarette Users’ Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements

    OpenAIRE

    Wackowski, Olivia A.; David Hammond; O’Connor, Richard J.; Strasser, Andrew A.; Delnevo, Cristine D.

    2016-01-01

    Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Par...

  14. Ventricular assist device

    Science.gov (United States)

    VAD; RVAD; LVAD; BVAD; Right ventricular assist device; Left ventricular assist device; Biventricular assist device; Heart pump; Left ventricular assist system; LVAS; Implantable ventricular assist device

  15. Smokers’ and E-Cigarette Users’ Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia A. Wackowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Participants were open to e-cigarette warnings and provided the strongest reactions to statements warning that e-liquid/e-vapor or e-cigarettes can be poisonous, contain toxins, or are “not a safe alternative to smoking”. However, many also noted that these statements were exaggerated, potentially misleading, and could scare smokers away from reducing their harm by switching to e-cigarettes. Opinions on the Food and Drug Administration’s proposed nicotine addiction warning and warnings that e-cigarettes had not been approved for smoking cessation or had unknown health effects were mixed. Participants perceived MarkTen’s advertisement warning to be stronger and more noticeable than Vuse’s. Care should be taken in developing e-cigarette warnings given their relative recentness and potential for harm reduction compared to other tobacco products. Additional research, including with varied audiences, would be instructive.

  16. Cannabis Users' Recommended Warnings for Packages of Legally Sold Cannabis: An Australia-Centered Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malouff, John M; Johnson, Caitlin E; Rooke, Sally E

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Although cannabis use creates health risks, governments have recently been legalizing either medical use or leisure use. These governments can mandate health warnings on cannabis packages. Prior research examined recommended warnings of cannabis experts. The aim of this study was to obtain suggested cannabis health and safety warnings from cannabis users. Methods: We used a media release, Facebook postings, and announcements in university classes to seek individuals who had used cannabis at least once according to their own report. Using online data collection software that keeps participants anonymous, we asked the individuals to suggest a warning that governments could mandate on cannabis packages. Results: In total, 288 users suggested warnings. Categorizing the warnings into content categories led to six warning topics: (1) risk of harm to mental health and psychological functioning; (2) risk of operating machinery while under the influence; (3) short-term physical side effects; (4) responsible use; (5) long-term negative physical effects; and (6) dependence, addiction, or abuse. The user-suggested warnings overlapped with six expert-recommended warnings identified in prior survey research and included two content areas that did not feature in expert-recommended warnings: short-term physical side effects and the importance of responsible use. Conclusions: The results are consistent with prior findings that some youths perceive cannabis use as potentially harmful. The current findings provide possible new content for warnings on cannabis packages.

  17. Discrimination of Effects between Directional and Nondirectional Information of Auditory Warning on Driving Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuting Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the impacts of directional and nondirectional auditory warning information in a collision warning system (CWS on driving behavior. The data on driving behavior is collected through experiment, with scenarios containing unexpected hazard events that include different warning content. As drivers approached the collision event, either a CWS auditory warning was given or no warning was given for a reference group. Discriminant analysis was used to investigate the relationship between directional auditory warning information and driving behavior. In the experiment, the CWS warnings significantly reduced brake reaction time and prompted drivers to press the brake pedal more heavily, demonstrating the effectiveness of CWS warnings in alerting drivers to avoid red-light running (RLR vehicles when approaching a signalized intersection. Providing a clear warning with directional information about an urgent hazard event could give drivers adequate time to prepare for the potential collision. In terms of deceleration, a directional information warning was shown to greatly help drivers react to critical events at signalized intersections with more moderate braking. From these results, requirements can be derived for the design of effective warning strategies for critical intersections.

  18. Hazard warnings and responses to evacuation orders: the case of Bangladesh's cyclone Sidr.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Bimal K; Dutt, Sohini

    2010-01-01

    On 15 November 2007 Cyclone Sidr, a category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh. Despite early cyclone warnings and evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines dissemination of the warning, assesses the warning responses, and explores the reasons why many residents did not evacuate. Field data collected from 257 Sidr survivors in four severely affected coastal districts revealed that more than three-fourths of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders. Despite the sincere efforts of the Bangladesh government, however, lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures occurred. Field data also revealed several reasons why evacuation orders were not followed. The reasons fell into three broad groups: those involving shelter characteristics; the attributes of the warning message itself; and the respondents' characteristics. Based on our findings, we recommend improved cyclone warnings and utilization of public shelters for similar events in the future.

  19. Separating device

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Jong, T.P.R.

    2001-01-01

    A sorting device (1) suitable for sorting wire from a waste stream, comprising a body (2) that moves when in use, and provided with spikes or similar projections. The body is embodied as a rotatable roll (2), which oscillates axially during its rotation. The roll is coupled to an oscillation engine

  20. Detection device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J.E.

    1981-02-27

    The present invention is directed to a detection device comprising: (1) an entrance chamber; (2) a central chamber; and (3) an exit chamber. The central chamber includes an ionizing gas, anode, and means for connecting the anode with an external power supply and pulse counter.

  1. Assistive Devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a number of assistive devices. These are tools, products or types of equipment that help you perform tasks and activities. They may help you move around, see, communicate, eat, or get dressed. Some are high-tech tools, such as computers. Others are much simpler, ...

  2. Printing Device

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den M.J.; Markies, P.R.; Zuilhof, H.

    2014-01-01

    An ink jetprinting device includes a pressure chamber formed by a plurality of wall segments, a first aperture extending through a wall segment and communicating with an ink jet orifice and a second aperture extending through a wall segment and communicating with an ink supply duct. The pressure

  3. Electrochemical device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimes, Patrick G.; Einstein, Harry; Bellows, Richard J.

    1988-01-12

    A tunnel protected electrochemical device features channels fluidically communicating between manifold, tunnels and cells. The channels are designed to provide the most efficient use of auxiliary power. The channels have a greater hydraulic pressure drop and electrical resistance than the manifold. This will provide a design with the optimum auxiliary energy requirements.

  4. Printing Device

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den M.J.; Markies, P.R.; Zuilhof, H.

    2014-01-01

    An ink jetprinting device includes a pressure chamber formed by a plurality of wall segments, a first aperture extending through a wall segment and communicating with an ink jet orifice and a second aperture extending through a wall segment and communicating with an ink supply duct. The pressure cha

  5. Balancing device

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dorsser, W.D.; Herder, J.L.; Wisse B.M.; Barents, R.

    2007-01-01

    The invention relates to a balancing device for a mass, comprising an arm that is adjustable about a pivoting point and with which the mass is coupled, and an adjustable spring system that is coupled with the arm, which spring system comprises at least one spring, wherein the spring system comprises

  6. Tsunamis detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Joseph, Antony

    2011-01-01

    The devastating impacts of tsunamis have received increased focus since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, the most devastating tsunami in over 400 years of recorded history. This professional reference is the first of its kind: it provides a globally inclusive review of the current state of tsunami detection technology and will be a much-needed resource for oceanographers and marine engineers working to upgrade and integrate their tsunami warning systems. It focuses on the two main tsunami warning systems (TWS): International and Regional. Featured are comparative assessments of detection, monitoring, and real-time reporting technologies. The challenges of detection through remote measuring stations are also addressed, as well as the historical and scientific aspects of tsunamis.

  7. Development of Early Warning Methods for Electric Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jóhannsson, Hjörtur

    This thesis concerns the development of methods that can provide, in realtime, an early warning for an emerging blackout in electric power systems. The blackout in E-Denmark and S-Sweden on September 23, 2003 is the main motivation for the method development. The blackout was caused by occurrence...... methods, that could, in such situations, give an early warning for the emerging blackout. After investigation of data and plots taken from the time of the blackout, it was decided to focus the development on assessment of aperiodic small signal stability. In order to assess the system generators aperiodic...... small signal stability, expressions for stability boundaries were algebraically derived in the injection impedance plane. A method for detecting aperiodic small signal stability was established, which was based on one of the derived boundaries. The method carries out an element-wise assessment...

  8. Earthquake warning system for infrastructures : a scoping analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodsky, Nancy S.; O' Connor, Sharon L.; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Fogleman, William E. (GRIT, Inc., Albuquerque, NM); Vugrin, Eric D.; Corbet, Thomas Frank, Jr.; Brown, Theresa Jean

    2011-09-01

    This report provides the results of a scoping study evaluating the potential risk reduction value of a hypothetical, earthquake early-warning system. The study was based on an analysis of the actions that could be taken to reduce risks to population and infrastructures, how much time would be required to take each action and the potential consequences of false alarms given the nature of the action. The results of the scoping analysis indicate that risks could be reduced through improving existing event notification systems and individual responses to the notification; and production and utilization of more detailed risk maps for local planning. Detailed maps and training programs, based on existing knowledge of geologic conditions and processes, would reduce uncertainty in the consequence portion of the risk analysis. Uncertainties in the timing, magnitude and location of earthquakes and the potential impacts of false alarms will present major challenges to the value of an early-warning system.

  9. Warning against the dangers of wildfires in the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozny, M.; Bares, D.; Virag, M.; Stalmacher, J.

    2009-04-01

    Many fire risk models have been developed for various temporal and spatial scales and application purposes. The integrated warning service in the Czech Republic is used for wildfire risk assessment model of FDI (Fire Danger Index). The FDI model is being developed in the Doksany observatory based on evaluation of weather conditions. FDI model describes danger of wildfire for vegetation covered countryside. There are five levels of danger: 1 - very low risk, 2 - low risk, 3 - moderate risk, 4 - high risk, 5 - very high risk. Simply say higher index value, reflects to higher risk of wildfire. As input data, the model uses measured values from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute stations network as well as ALADIN's model predicted conditions. The modelling process computes upper soil profile moisture, surface moistening and the spreading speed of fire. Early warning system for wildfires prevention in the Czech Republic is used since 2006.

  10. Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2013-01-01

    rather than present specific estimates for these costs. Making the best use of environmental science and modelling helps to make environmental protection and precaution a priority. Producing cost estimates should not be left to economists alone, but should rather be seen as a starting point for a broader...... innovations whilst minimising harms. This chapter revisits some key environmental issues for which estimates of costs of inaction have been carefully developed over many years of research. The aim is to consider the methodological challenges involved in producing estimates that are credible and appropriate......The 2013 Late lessons from early warnings report is the second of its type produced by the European Environment Agency (EEA) in collaboration with a broad range of external authors and peer reviewers. The case studies across both volumes of Late lessons from early warnings cover a diverse range...

  11. Analysis of pilot warning indicator performance in terminal area traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruetenik, J. R.; Lange, W. R.; Thompson, J. H.

    1971-01-01

    Three pilot warning indicator concepts for collision hazard avoidance are analyzed using computer fast-time simulation. A hazard measure is defined based on a 1/2-g maximum horizontal acceleration, a maximum climb or dive angle of 10 deg for each aircraft, and a 20-sec warning time, through escape completion. The traffic model is based on flight tracks recorded in the Atlanta terminal area over an 11 hr period during August 1967. The basic PWI concept studied alarms on range to flashing beacons mounted on intruder aircraft as a function of relative azimuth and elevation. The alarm-hazard epoch ratio is about 17/1 to maintain the missed-alarm rate below 10%. Beacon vignetting or range-rate discrimination are shown to reduce the false-alarm rate by about 75%.

  12. Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse

    CERN Document Server

    Feng, Qing Yi; Dijkstra, Henk A

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a crucial part of the climate system because of its associated northward heat transport. The present-day MOC is sensitive to freshwater anomalies and may collapse to a state with a strongly reduced northward heat transport. A future collapse of the Atlantic MOC has been identified as one of the most dangerous tipping points in the climate system. It is therefore crucial to develop early warning indicators for such a potential collapse based on relatively short time series. So far, attempts to use indicators based on critical slowdown have been marginally successful. Based on complex climate network reconstruction, we here present a promising new indicator for the MOC collapse that efficiently monitors spatial changes in deep ocean circulation. Through our analysis of the performance of this indicator we formulate optimal locations of measurement of the MOC to provide early warning signals of a collapse. Our results imply that an increase in spatial reso...

  13. The Forecasting and Warning System of Geological Disasters in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YaoXuexiang; XuJing

    2004-01-01

    Geological disasters such as landslide and mudslide can be caused by many factors. Collaborations among different governmental agencies and multi-disciplines are necessary to establish a forecasting and warning system of geological disasters ( FWSGD). A FWSGD in China has been in operation since June 1 , 2003 as a joint project between the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the Ministry of Land and Resources ( MLR). This system has successfully shown very good social and economic benefits. The temporal-spatial distributions of China geological disasters and their causes have been analyzed in this paper. The FWSGD is described and its possible existing issues are also discussed. Authors suggest a new approach to study these disasters from interactions of the earth systems. Finally, a monitoring, forecasting, warning and preventing system for geological disasters in China is proposed.

  14. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  15. Multi-Use Seismic Stations for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, T.; Townsend, B.; Moores, A. O.; Bainbridge, G. S.; Easton, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning network performance improves with the number and density of sensing stations, quality of the sites, quality of strong-motion instrumentation, degree of coverage near at-risk populated areas and potential fault zones, and minimizing latency of signal processing and transmission. Seismic research tends to emphasize competing requirements: low-noise sites, high-performance broadband seismic instrumentation, and high-quality signal processing without regard for latency. Recent advances in instrumentation and processing techniques have made feasible the concept of a multi-use seismic station in which strong-motion and weak-motion seismometry are both cost-effectively served without compromising the performance demands of either. We present a concept for a multi-use seismic station that cost-effectively meets the needs of both earthquake early warning and high-quality seismic research. One significant enabler is a 6-channel dual-sensor instrument that combines a 120s broadband seismometer and a class A accelerometer in a single ultra-compact sonde suitable for direct burial. Combining two sensors into one effectively adds broadband capability to a station without increasing the already optimized site footprint, preparation and management costs associated with shallow direct-burial installations. The combined sensors also complement each other, simplifying and speeding installation (for example, the accelerometer provides real-time tilt readings useful to leveling the seismometer). Integration simplifies alignment to North, as there is only one instrument to orient. A dual-use 6-channel digitizer simultaneously provides two sets of independently processed streams from both sensors, one set optimized for low-latency earthquake warning, and the other set for high quality seismic research purposes. Such a dual-use seismic station can serve both seismic research and civil warning infrastructure objectives without adding significantly to the cost of a

  16. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  17. NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbee, Brent; Syal, Megan Bruck; Gisler, Galen

    2016-01-01

    This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

  18. Connecting earthquake source products to local tsunami warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melgar, D.; Allen, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Issuing warning of a tsunami in advance of its arrival to the coastlines immediately adjacent to large earthquakes remains a challenging problem. The heterogeneous development state of regional geophysical monitoring infrastructure across subduction zones worldwide means that a flexible approach to warning, capable of ingesting multiple data types and earthquake source products, is the most appealing. We will present results from the study of 3 recent large events that have been observed with diverse geophysical measurements; the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki, the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule and 2014 Mw8.2 Iquique events. First, we will show that earthquake slip models derived from combination of land (GPS and strong motion) as well as off-shore (tide gauges, ocean-bottom pressure, and GPS buoy) can be coupled to tsunami propagation models to produce simulations that closely match the measured run-up at the local coastlines. Using these models as a baseline for validation we will demonstrate a methodology that takes advantage of simpler, but more readily available earthquake source products such as rapid point-source magnitude estimates from coastal GPS observations and regional moment tensors. We will show that while trading-off precision for speed, these simpler earthquake source models produce inundation forecasts reliable enough to be used for warning within minutes of earthquake onset. Most subduction zones around the world already have some geophysical infrastructure and are producing some form of real-time earthquake source product, our results strongly argue that by coupling these data products to tsunami propagation models local tsunami warning is possible at most subduction zones with already available infrastructure.

  19. Indications and Warning Analysis Management System IWAMS. A Design Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-03-01

    Narrative; any number of works concerning New Critics and New Criticism , a powerful move- ment in the literary world influential especially in the 1940...search for the secrets of life itself, But in some sense this dream of Al is the archetypal dream of much of contemporary inquiry. It is not to find a... literary theory .... We have not minimized the obstacles to effective warning analysis by the human -- there is ample discussion of these below -- but it

  20. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    OpenAIRE

    Z. A. Thomas; Kwasniok, F.; C. A. Boulton; Cox, P.M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; C. S. M. Turney

    2015-01-01

    Palaeo-records from China demonstrate that the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesized that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem δ18O records fro...

  1. Australia's double standard on Thailand's alcohol warning labels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Paula

    2013-01-01

    Since 2010, members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), including Australia, have opposed Thailand's proposal for graphic warnings on alcohol containers. This paper aims to provide an account of the arguments for/against Thailand and to examine the arguments' legal and political validity. This paper reviews primary WTO records in relation to Thailand's proposal to reveal the arguments for/against Thailand's proposal. The paper analyses these arguments in light of WTO cases to identify the legal strengths and weaknesses of Thailand's position. The paper then considers whether the attacks on Thailand by Australia are justified in light of the Australian Government's position on (i) alcohol warning labels in Australia and (ii) tobacco plain packaging. The legal arguments against Thailand are: only harmful alcohol consumption should be prevented; there is no evidence that graphic warning labels can reduce alcohol-related harm; the labels unnecessarily restrict international trade. There are some legal weaknesses in Thailand's proposal. Yet, Australia's opposition to Thailand cannot be justified whilst Australia is (i) mandating pregnancy-related alcohol warnings in Australia and (ii) defending its plain packaging law against similar WTO attacks. No WTO member is obliged to challenge another member for being non-compliant. The case tests the willingness of WTO members like Australia to respect the autonomy of other countries to pursue their public health goals and trial novel interventions. Australia's actions suggest it is willing to protect its alcohol industry at the expense of public health in Thailand. © 2012 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  2. Suborbital Asteroid Intercept and Fragmentation for Very Short Warning Time Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupp, Ryan; Dewald, Spencer; Wie, Bong; Barbee, Brent W.

    2015-01-01

    Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) 50150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. However, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt).We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a fictitious incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally, at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances.Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEOwould strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total V 9.511 kms) could intercept incoming NEOs over a day prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of NEO intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

  3. Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupp, Ryan; DeWald, Spencer; Wie, Bong; Barbee, Brent W.

    2015-01-01

    Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) is approx. 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total deltaV is approx. 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

  4. Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željka Asanović

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

  5. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  6. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities’ preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities’ capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change. PMID:27649547

  7. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  8. Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

  9. Neural network strategies for issuing flood warning alerts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahart, R.; Dawson, C.; See, L.; Wilby, R.

    2003-04-01

    Most neural network hydrological forecasting involves modelling standard combinations of traditional rainfall-runoff variables in a supervised learning environment. These computational solutions have to date produced reasonable approximations but various problems still exist in the manner of input and output data inadequacies and weak deterministic hydrological relationships. The supervised learning model also puts an arduous burden on the instructor mechanism which requires a comprehensive set of meaningful real-world input-output situations. It is argued that the information content on either side of the equation must be modified if such tools are to achieve improved performance and that alternative relationships might be used to build superior modelling solutions e.g. to predict Fourier Series Parameters instead of Measured Hydrological Variables. This paper thus compares alternative strategies that can be used to deliver neural network flood warning alerts based on a six-hour forecasting horizon for the River Ouse in Yorkshire - a river that experiences major floods. The first solution uses a standard neural network modelling procedure to predict river level outputs which are then classified into four flood alert codes: ALL CLEAR; FLOOD WATCH; FLOOD WARNING; SEVERE FLOOD WARNING. The other solutions use identical data inputs to predict a simpler output function that is easier to learn; comprising the four individual event codes modelled as a set of categorical entities. The non-standard approaches that are considered consist of: [i] single-winner, [ii] thermometer method and [iii] a self-organising map.

  10. Progress in developing an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, S.; Mooney, W. D.; Kelly, A.; Atwater, B.; Sipkin, S.; Petersen, M.; Hudnut, K.

    2007-12-01

    Nearly three years following the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, there is much progress to report on building a new Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) which will provide tsunami early warnings and framework for disaster management and response systems. To date, the IOTWS has utilized the leadership and technical expertise of many countries including Indonesia, Thailand, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, together with assistance from international partners. Inter-agency cooperation has combined expertise in a broad range of disciplines to accomplish several goals including: 1) developing infrastructures for both real-time analysis of seismic data and rapid communication and warnings (including the upgrade of several Indonesian seismic and GPS stations), 2) land use planning and community preparation aimed at minimizing damage and loss of life from future disasters, and 3) international support for logistics, communications, training, management and administration. Throughout the implementation of the IOTWS, a primary focus was placed on "in-country capacity building," so that individual nations can be self-sustaining in their efforts. We believe that this has been accomplished through extensive training sessions, workshops and site visits.

  11. An operational heat/health warning system in shanghai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Jianguo; Kalkstein, L. S.; Huang, Jiaxin; Lin, Songbai; Yin, Hebao; Shao, Demin

    . Previous research has noted that high surface temperatures within certain ``offensive'' air masses can lead to increased mortality. This study assesses the relationship between daily mortality rates and weather within the city of Shanghai, China, while introducing an operational heat/health warning system for the city. Using numerous meteorological observations, the spatial synoptic classification has been used to classify each summer day from 1989 to 1998 into one of eight air mass types for Shanghai. Through the comparative analysis of the daily air mass type and the corresponding Shanghai mortality rate, ``moist tropical plus'' (MT+), an extremely hot and humid air mass, was identified as an offensive air mass with the highest rates of mortality. Using stepwise regression, an algorithm was produced to help predict the number of excess deaths that will occur with each occurence of the MT+ airmass. The heat/health warning system was run experimentally in the summer of 2001 and illustrated that the use of a warning system can alert the city's residents of potentially offensive weather situations that can lead to a deterioration in human health.

  12. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Z. A.; Kwasniok, F.; Boulton, C. A.; Cox, P. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; Turney, C. S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Palaeo-records from China demonstrate that the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesized that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem δ18O records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China, spanning the penultimate glacial cycle. We find that although there are increases in both autocorrelation and variance preceding some of the monsoon transitions during this period, it is only immediately prior to the abrupt monsoon shift at the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) that statistically significant increases are detected. To supplement our data analysis, we produce and analyse multiple model simulations that we derive from these data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. However, signals of critical slowing down, which occur on the approach to a bifurcation, are only detectable in the model simulations when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the data set. This raises the possibility that the early warning "alarms" were missed in the speleothem data over the period 224-150 kyr and it was only at the monsoon termination that the change in the system stability was sufficiently slow to detect early warning signals.

  13. Strengthening flood warning systems: the benefits of encouraging social preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Seibert, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Flood warning and response have normally been focused on the technical aspects and disregarded the connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social dimensions. An increasing body of research, however, points at the importance of considering socio-hydrological aspects to improve flood damage mitigation. One of the key factors is the preparedness of the public and first responders during flood situations, which is influenced by many behavioural traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or denial. In this study, we investigate the impact of social preparedness on the efficiency of flood early warning systems by using the recency of flood experience as a proxy for social preparedness. To this end, we developed a stylised model and a synthetic data-set to perform a hypothetical analysis. The main findings point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially when the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. More specifically, efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings from this study provide insights into the importance of considering social preparedness in decision-making for disaster risk reduction.

  14. Airborne Turbulence Detection and Warning ACLAIM Flight Test Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannon, Stephen M.; Bagley, Hal R.; Soreide, Dave C.; Bowdle, David A.; Bogue, Rodney K.; Ehernberger, L. Jack

    1999-01-01

    The Airborne Coherent Lidar for Advanced Inflight Measurements (ACLAIM) is a NASA/Dryden-lead program to develop and demonstrate a 2 micrometers pulsed Doppler lidar for airborne look-ahead turbulence detection and warning. Advanced warning of approaching turbulence can significantly reduce injuries to passengers and crew aboard commercial airliners. The ACLAIM instrument is a key asset to the ongoing Turbulence component of NASA's Aviation Safety Program, aimed at reducing the accident rate aboard commercial airliners by a factor of five over the next ten years and by a factor of ten over the next twenty years. As well, the advanced turbulence warning capability can prevent "unstarts" in the inlet of supersonic aircraft engines by alerting the flight control computer which then adjusts the engine to operate in a less fuel efficient, and more turbulence tolerant, mode. Initial flight tests of the ACLAIM were completed in March and April of 1998. This paper and presentation gives results from these initial flights, with validated demonstration of Doppler lidar wind turbulence detection several kilometers ahead of the aircraft.

  15. The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  16. Marketing strategies and warning labels on children's toothpaste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basch, Corey Hannah; Rajan, Sonali

    2014-10-01

    The overconsumption of toothpaste has negative consequences, particularly for children. This study's objectives were to describe misleading marketing strategies used in selling children's fluoridated toothpaste and identify warning label characteristics. Two researchers independently coded the packaging from 26 over-the-counter toothpastes that are specifically marketed for children. Aggressive marketing strategies targeting children were identified: every toothpaste in this sample displayed at least 1 children's animated character, 50% had at least 1 picture of a food item, 92.3% stated they were flavored and 26.9% depicted a full swirl of toothpaste, directly contradicting dentist recommendations for young children. Further, on most toothpaste tubes, warnings regarding fluoride overconsumption for young children were only listed on the back and in very small font. Misleading marketing strategies are regularly used in selling children's toothpaste as if it is a food product, while warnings regarding overconsumption among youth are minimized. Dental hygienists are in an important position to help parents of young children implement safe oral care practices. Copyright © 2014 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

  17. LED-Based High-Voltage Lines Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eldar MUSA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available LED-based system, running with the current of high-voltage lines and converting the current flowing through the line into the light by using a toroid transformer, has been developed. The transformer’s primary winding is constituted by the high voltage power line. Toroidal core consists of two equal parts and the secondary windings are evenly placed on these two parts. The system is mounted on the high-voltage lines as a clamp. The secondary winding ends are connected in series by the connector on the clamp. LEDs are supplied by the voltage at the ends of secondary. Current flowing through highvoltage transmission lines is converted to voltage by the toroidal transformer and the light emitting LEDs are supplied with this voltage. The theory of the conversion of the current flowing through the line into the light is given. The system, running with the current of the line and converting the current into the light, has been developed. System has many application areas such as warning high voltage lines (warning winches to not hinder the high-voltage lines when working under the lines, warning planes to not touch the high-voltage lines, remote measurement of high-voltage line currents, and local illumination of the line area

  18. Capacity Building for Caribbean Tsunami Warnings: A Regional Training Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, A.; Robertson, R.; Kong, L.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; McCreery, C.; Yamamoto, M.; Mooney, W. D.; Lynch, L.

    2007-12-01

    Between June 25 and June 30 the Seismic Research Unit (SRU) of the University of the West Indies (UWI) hosted a Caribbean regional training program in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings. A total of 43 participants from 21 countries and territories, representing meteorological, emergency management, and seismological institutions in the region, attended this training aimed at developing their understanding of the science of tsunamis, hazard and risk assessment, preparedness, education, and outreach, and operational best practices. As an outcome of the course the participants drafted six recommendations (outlined on the poster) that they felt were priority action items for expeditious realization of a Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System. The program was conducted under the UNESCO IOC banner in response to a call for such a training program at the Second Session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS II), held in Cumanã, Venezuela, March 12-14, 2007. The majority of funding for the course was provided by the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (ODFA) of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Disaster Reduction Center of the UWI, and the US Geological Survey (USGS).

  19. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Schöne

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  20. Establishment and Assessment of Plasma Disruption and Warning Databases from EAST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Robert, Granetz; Xiao, Bingjia; Li, Jiangang; Yang, Fei; Li, Junjun; Chen, Dalong

    2016-12-01

    Disruption database and disruption warning database of the EAST tokamak had been established by a disruption research group. The disruption database, based on Structured Query Language (SQL), comprises 41 disruption parameters, which include current quench characteristics, EFIT equilibrium characteristics, kinetic parameters, halo currents, and vertical motion. Presently most disruption databases are based on plasma experiments of non-superconducting tokamak devices. The purposes of the EAST database are to find disruption characteristics and disruption statistics to the fully superconducting tokamak EAST, to elucidate the physics underlying tokamak disruptions, to explore the influence of disruption on superconducting magnets and to extrapolate toward future burning plasma devices. In order to quantitatively assess the usefulness of various plasma parameters for predicting disruptions, a similar SQL database to Alcator C-Mod for EAST has been created by compiling values for a number of proposed disruption-relevant parameters sampled from all plasma discharges in the 2015 campaign. The detailed statistic results and analysis of two databases on the EAST tokamak are presented. supported by the National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Science Program of China (No. 2014GB103000)

  1. Reflections on the US FDA's Warning on Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Seon-Hee; Chung, Yeun-Jun

    2014-12-01

    In November 2013, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) sent a warning letter to 23andMe, Inc. and ordered the company to discontinue marketing of the 23andMe Personal Genome Service (PGS) until it receives FDA marketing authorization for the device. The FDA considers the PGS as an unclassified medical device, which requires premarket approval or de novo classification. Opponents of the FDA's action expressed their concerns, saying that the FDA is overcautious and paternalistic, which violates consumers' rights and might stifle the consumer genomics field itself, and insisted that the agency should not restrict direct-to-consumer (DTC) genomic testing without empirical evidence of harm. Proponents support the agency's action as protection of consumers from potentially invalid and almost useless information. This action was also significant, since it reflected the FDA's attitude towards medical application of next-generation sequencing techniques. In this review, we followed up on the FDA-23andMe incident and evaluated the problems and prospects for DTC genetic testing.

  2. [Establishment of malaria early warning system in Jiangsu Province III effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei-Ming; Zhou, Hua-Yun; Liu, Yao-Bao; Cao, Yuan-Yuan; Cao, Jun; Gao, Qi

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination in Jiangsu Province through the operation of the national automatic early warning system of infectious diseases. The malaria early warning information was collected from the automatic early warning information subsystem in the national information system for diseases control and prevention. Malaria early warning signals were analyzed from September 1 to December 31, 2012. The statistical analysis was conducted for the completion rates of case investigation within 3 days before and after the application of malaria early warning information system. Jiangsu Province received 85 mobile phone short messages (SMS) of malaria case from early warning system from September 1 to December 31, 2012. After judgments, 23 cases were deleted including 8 repeated cases and 15 cases that were excluded through the microscopy examination and epidemiological investigation by the confirmation of county CDC. From July to December in 2012, the monthly completion rates of case investigation within 3 days were 55.56%, 78.57%, 90.00%, 100%, 100% and 100%, respectively. The completion rates of case investigation within 3 days in July, August, September and October were significantly different by chi2 test ( chi2 = 10.66, P system. The malaria warning system from the national infectious diseases can effectively improve the response to malaria cases for primary CDC. It also plays an important role for the timely confirmation and diagnosis of malaria cases.

  3. "Distinvar" device

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN PhotoLab

    1965-01-01

    The alignment of one of the accelerator magnets being checked by the AR Division survey group. A "distinvar" device, invented by the group, using calibrated invar wires stretched between the fixed survey pillar (on the left) and a fixed point on the magnet. In two days it is thus possible to measure the alignment of the 100 magnets with an accuracy better than 1/10.

  4. Magnetohydrodynamic device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorlin, S.M.; Ljubimov, G.A.; Bitjurin, V.A.; Kovbasjuk, V.I.; Maximenko, V.I.; Medin, S.A.; Barshak, A.E.

    1979-12-25

    A magnetohydrodynamic device having a duct for a conducting gas to flow at an angle with the direction of the magnetic field induction vector is described. The duct is situated in the magnetic system and is provided with a plurality of electrodes adapted to interact electrically with the gas, whereas the cross-sectional shape of the duct working space is bounded by a closed contour formed by a curve inscribed into a rectangle. 1 claim.

  5. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance

  6. Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi

    2015-04-01

    In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to

  7. Communicating tobacco health risks: How effective are the warning labels on tobacco products?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amandeep Chopra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Health hazards of tobacco are well known but only small numbers of tobacco users are fully aware of the harmful effects of tobacco. Warning labels on tobacco products are an effective way of communicating the consequences of tobacco use and bring about behavioural changes like quitting and reducing the tobacco consumption. So the present study was conducted to investigate the awareness and effectiveness of warning labels on tobacco products among health and non-healthcare professional of Barwala, Panchkula. Materials and Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional survey was carried out among 408 subjects who were randomly selected from different professional colleges of Barwala, Panchkula. Data obtained were anlysed using descriptive statistics and Chi-square test using SPSS 20.0. Results: Most of study participants has noticed the warnings on tobacco products and most of them believe that they could understand warning labels. More that 70% believe that warnings create awareness about health hazards of tobacco and help in reducing or quitting tobacco. Pictorial warning was found to be better as compared to text warning. Health professionals were able to assess pictorial warnings more correctly as compared to non-healthcare professionals. Conclusion: Warning labels on tobacco packs effectively inform people about adverse health effects of tobacco but the mandated warnings do not serve the desired purpose since they are not properly understood.

  8. Design and evaluation of multimedia security warnings for the interaction between humans and industrial robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fruth, Jana; Kraetzer, Christian; Dittmann, Jana

    2011-01-01

    In this document a multi-media security warning design approach for automated production scenarios with industrial robots is introduced. This first approach is based on and adapts design principles of common security programs and a German VDI standard for safety warnings design. We focus on direct human-to-robot interaction scenarios, e.g. the online-programming of industrial robots, because of their potential indirect safety impacts, which could be caused by malicious codes infection of a robots control computer. We designed ten different multi-media security warnings, composed of visual and acoustical information. Visual information of warnings is transported via a traffic light metaphor (symbolizing three different threat levels), different warn icons (symbolizing properties of malicious codes) and instructions icons to programmers or operators and additional textual information. With an acknowledgment button in the middle of the warning, the programmer's confirmation of the reception of the warning is verified. Additionally, three different acoustical signals also indicate the threat level of the warning. Furthermore, an evaluation is presented, which uses concepts known from usability testing (method of loud thinking, questionnaire, time measurement). The aim is to evaluate general design criteria of our developed security warnings and tendency of user perception for further advancement of our warnings design.

  9. Graphic warning labels on plain cigarette packs: will they make a difference to adolescents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCool, Judith; Webb, Lisa; Cameron, Linda D; Hoek, Janet

    2012-04-01

    Graphic warning labels and plain cigarette packaging are two initiatives developed to increase quit behaviour among smokers. Although a little is known about how adolescents interpret graphic warning labels, very few studies have examined how plain cigarette packaging would affect adolescents' perceptions of cigarette smoking and smoking behaviour. We explored how teens interpret and respond to graphic warning labels and the plain packaging of cigarettes, to assess the potential these strategies may offer in deterring smoking initiation. Twelve focus group interviews with a sample of 80 14-16 year old students from a diverse range of schools in Auckland, New Zealand were undertaken between June and August 2009. Textual analysis revealed that graphic warning labels may influence adolescents by reiterating a negative image of smokers. Graphic warning on a plain cigarette pack increased the attention paid to graphic warning labels and the overall perceptions of harm caused by cigarette smoking, and reduced the social appeal of cigarette smoking. This research offers evidence on how adolescents are appraising and interpreting graphic warning labels, and explores how dominant appraisals may affect the role graphic warning labels play in preventing smoking. Not only would plain cigarette packaging enhance the salience and impact of graphic warning labels, but it would potentially bolster the overall message that cigarette smoking is harmful. In the context of a comprehensive tobacco control programme, graphic warning labels on plain cigarette packaging present an explicit message about the risks (to health and image) associated with cigarette smoking.

  10. Smokers' recall of Australian graphic cigarette packet warnings & awareness of associated health effects, 2005-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quester Pascale G

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2006, Australia introduced graphic cigarette packet warnings. The new warnings include one of 14 pictures, many depicting tobacco-related pathology. The warnings were introduced in two sets; Set A in March and Set B from November. This study explores their impact on smokers' beliefs about smoking related illnesses. This study also examines the varying impact of different warnings, to see whether warnings with visceral images have greater impact on smokers' beliefs than other images. Methods Representative samples of South Australian smokers were interviewed in four independent cross-sectional omnibus surveys; in 2005 (n = 504, 2006 (n = 525, 2007 (n = 414 and 2008 (n = 464. Results Unprompted recall of new graphic cigarette warnings was high in the months following their introduction, demonstrating that smokers' had been exposed to them. Smokers also demonstrated an increase in awareness about smoking-related diseases specific to the warning messages. Warnings that conveyed new information and had emotive images demonstrated greater impact on recall and smokers' beliefs than more familiar information and less emotive images. Conclusions Overall graphic pack warnings have had the intended impact on smokers. Some have greater impact than others. The implications for policy makers in countries introducing similar warnings are that fresh messaging and visceral images have the greatest impact.

  11. False alarms and missed events: the impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G

    2015-01-01

    Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  13. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  14. Intravascular foreign bodies: danger of unretrieved fragmented medical devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tateishi, Minori; Tomizawa, Yasuko

    2009-01-01

    A warning on the danger of unretrieved device fragments and recommendations to mitigate the danger were issued by the Food and Drug Administration in January 2008. The causes of intravascular foreign bodies are classified into three main categories: improper manipulation and usage, device defects, and others, such as patient and anatomical factors. Device failure after long-term use is rarely predicted at the time of approval, since device abnormality is rarely experienced in animal studies and clinical trials conducted during development of the device. Stent fracture due to metal fatigue is one example. Complex complications could occur from simultaneous use of two or more devices with diverse characteristics. The success rate of percutaneous retrieval of intravascular foreign bodies has improved with the advances in commercially available devices. However, the procedure is not always successful and sometimes surgical removal becomes necessary. Appropriate device selection and acquisition of experience in using the device are important. When an intravascular foreign body cannot be retrieved, the risk of complication could be high. Magnetic resonance imaging examination sometimes causes adverse events, including burns due to the heat generated by metal movement. Such information should be correctly recorded. Furthermore, it is necessary to provide patients with adequate information about the characteristics of implanted devices and unretrieved fragments. We reviewed the literature on unretrieved medical device fragments and include articles that describe the Japanese experience.

  15. Electrooptical devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, C. E.

    1980-03-01

    This report covers work carried out with support of the Department of the Air Force during the period 1 October 1979 through 31 March 1980. A part of this support was provided by the Rome Air Development Center. CW operation at temperatures up to 55 C has been achieved for GaInAsP/InP double-heterostructure (DH) lasers emitting at 1.5 micrometers, which were grown without a GaInAsP buffer layer. These devices are of interest for use as sources in fiber-optics communications systems, since the lowest transmission loss reported for fused-silica optical fibers occurs at 1.55 micrometers. Surface passivation techniques developed for InP and GaInAsP avalanche photodiodes have resulted in reductions of dark current as large as four orders of magnitude, to values as low as .0000016 A/sq cm at 0.9 V(b) where V(b) is the breakdown voltage. Devices consisting entirely of InP have been passivated with plasma-deposited Si3N4, and those with a GaInAsP layer but with the p-n junction in InP have been passivated with polyimide. Neither of these techniques successfully reduces dark currents in devices with the p-n junction in the GaInAsP, but a film of photoresist sprayed with SF6 as the propellant has given excellent results. The electrical characteristics in InP ion implanted with Sn, Ge, Si, and C have been investigated. All of these column IV elements yielded n-type conductivity and Sn, Ge, and Si showed high electrical activation; however, implanted C was found to have a net electrical activation of only about 5 percent.

  16. A Warning System for Overspeed at the Corner Using Visible Light Based Road-To-Vehicle Communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuniyoshi Okuda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available When a car enters a corner with over speed, it rises the accident risk higher. To warn the risk and urging the caution to drivers, many of the accident-prone corners have warning rights. The driver can decelerate the car smoothly and pass through the corner safety by those devices. However, appropriate speed for each corner is different by curvature of the corner and characteristics of the vehicle. The driver has to suppose the safe speed for every corner only by experience, usually. Of course too much slow causes traffic jam. Especially at the first road in the first place for the driver, it is difficult to suppose the curvatures of the corners. Then, we propose a visible light communication system so that the warning lights in the corner send appropriate warning information. Visible light communication transmits a signal by blinking the light. One of the characteristics of visible light communication is that it can use existing lighting equipment as a transmitter. In our system, we can distribute the warning information to the driver using the visible light communication. Though the curvature(R:radious of the corner does not change, the speed of each vehicle to approach the corner always to different. Focusing the distance from the corner to the car, we consider a communication system to send different kind of information according to that distance. If the distance is enough long, the driver has a plenty of time to decelerate the vehicle. The more the distance becomes short, the more the driver is required rapid deceleration. Therefore, to distribute the appropriate warning information to the driver, dividing the distance from the corner into some areas, we make the system to send different information in each area. Generally in communication system, modulation primarily changes the amplitude, phase or frequency. In visible light communication, change of the amplitude changes the brightness, which causes flickering that burdens the drivers

  17. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  18. Lack of pregnancy warnings on over-the-counter dermatologic products containing potentially harmful hydroquinone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bio, L L; Cies, J J

    2017-07-01

    To determine the presence of pregnancy warnings on over-the-counter (OTC) dermatologic products with hydroquinone, a potentially harmful ingredient. Data were obtained from the Food and Drug Administration National Drug Code Directory and Label Repository to identify OTC dermatologic products containing hydroquinone. Products were stratified based on pregnancy or general warning presence (WP) or absence (WA). Product characteristics were compared between groups: hydroquinone concentration, presence of external packaging, indication and warning statements. Of the 112 products studied, 21 had a pregnancy warning and 3 included a general warning against use: WP (n=24) and WA (n=88) group. External packaging was more prevalent in the WP group compared to WA (62.5% vs 29.5%, P=0.004). Majority of OTC dermatologic products containing hydroquinone did not have a pregnancy warning. This highlights the need for improved labeling and informs providers caring for pregnant women of OTC labeling limitations.

  19. Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nambiar, Shrrirup P.; Hussein, Alaa; Silva-Martinez, Jackelynne; Reinert, Jessica; Gonzalez, Fernando

    2016-01-01

    Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning

  20. Planetary Defense Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nambiar, Shrrirup; Hussein, Alaa; Silva-Martinez, Jackelynne; Reinert, Jessica; Gonzalez, Fernando

    2016-01-01

    Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning

  1. Scalable devices

    KAUST Repository

    Krüger, Jens J.

    2014-01-01

    In computer science in general and in particular the field of high performance computing and supercomputing the term scalable plays an important role. It indicates that a piece of hardware, a concept, an algorithm, or an entire system scales with the size of the problem, i.e., it can not only be used in a very specific setting but it\\'s applicable for a wide range of problems. From small scenarios to possibly very large settings. In this spirit, there exist a number of fixed areas of research on scalability. There are works on scalable algorithms, scalable architectures but what are scalable devices? In the context of this chapter, we are interested in a whole range of display devices, ranging from small scale hardware such as tablet computers, pads, smart-phones etc. up to large tiled display walls. What interests us mostly is not so much the hardware setup but mostly the visualization algorithms behind these display systems that scale from your average smart phone up to the largest gigapixel display walls.

  2. Rotation of tobacco pack health warnings by the tobacco industry in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana I Andreeva

    2017-05-01

    Tobacco industry consistently overproduces packs with certain health warnings on tobacco packs to minimize the presentation of others. This might be caused by the industry's estimates of comparative potential impact various health warnings might have on users. To properly inform smokers of various aspect of tobacco-related harm, national legislation needs to require each health warning should appear on an equal number of packages.

  3. A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2012-01-01

    Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

  4. Pictorial health warnings on cigarette packs and the impact on women

    OpenAIRE

    Lorna Bittencourt; Person, Sharina D.; Regina Celina Cruz; Scarinci, Isabel C.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE : To analyze the association between the pictorial graphic health warnings on cigarette packs and their impact on intention to quit smoking among women. METHODS : Population-based cross-sectional study among 265 women daily smokers in the State of Paraná in 2010. The sample size was calculated using cluster sampling. Participants were asked whether they had seen any pictorial graphic health warnings in the past 30 days, whether these warnings made them think about quitting,...

  5. Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

    2015-04-01

    The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then

  6. Practical microwave electron devices

    CERN Document Server

    Meurant, Gerard

    2013-01-01

    Practical Microwave Electron Devices provides an understanding of microwave electron devices and their applications. All areas of microwave electron devices are covered. These include microwave solid-state devices, including popular microwave transistors and both passive and active diodes; quantum electron devices; thermionic devices (including relativistic thermionic devices); and ferrimagnetic electron devices. The design of each of these devices is discussed as well as their applications, including oscillation, amplification, switching, modulation, demodulation, and parametric interactions.

  7. ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System Updates and Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, A. I.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm has been detecting earthquakes throughout California since 2007. It is one of the algorithms that contributes to CISN's ShakeAlert, a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed for California. Overall, ElarmS performance has been excellent. Over the past year (July 1, 2014 - July 1, 2015), ElarmS successfully detected all but three of the significant earthquakes (M4+) that occurred within California. Of the 24 events that were detected, the most notable was the M6.0 South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. The first alert for this event was sent in 5.1 seconds with an initial magnitude estimate of M5.7. This alert provided approximately 8 seconds of warning of the impending S-wave arrival to the city of San Francisco. The magnitude estimate increased to the final value of M6.0 within 15 seconds of the initial alert. One of the two events that were not detected by ElarmS occurred within 30 seconds of the M6.0 Napa mainshock. The two other missed events occurred offshore in a region with sparse station coverage in the Eureka area. Since its inception, ElarmS has evolved and adapted to meet new challenges. On May 30, 2015, an extraordinarily deep (678km) M7.8 teleseism in Japan generated 5 false event detections for earthquakes greater than M4 within a minute due to the simultaneous arrival of the P-waves at stations throughout California. In order to improve the speed and accuracy of the ElarmS detections, we are currently exploring new methodologies to quickly evaluate incoming triggers from individual stations. Rapidly determining whether or not a trigger at a given station is due to a local earthquake or some other source (such as a distant teleseism) could dramatically increase the confidence in individual triggers and reduce false alerts.

  8. The Effect of Sonic Booms on Earthquake Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurman, Gilead; Haering, Edward A, Jr.; Price, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Several aerospace companies are designing quiet supersonic business jets for service over the United States. These aircraft have the potential to increase the occurrence of mild sonic booms across the country. This leads to interest among earthquake warning (EQW) developers and the general seismological community in characterizing the effect of sonic booms on seismic sensors in the field, their potential impact on EQW systems, and means of discriminating their signatures from those of earthquakes. The SonicBREWS project (Sonic Boom Resistant Earthquake Warning Systems) is a collaborative effort between Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. (SWS) and NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. This project aims to evaluate the effects of sonic booms on EQW sensors. The study consists of exposing high-sample-rate (1000 sps) triaxial accelerometers to sonic booms with overpressures ranging from 10 to 600 Pa in the free field and the built environment. The accelerometers record the coupling of the sonic boom to the ground and surrounding structures, while microphones record the acoustic wave above ground near the sensor. Sonic booms are broadband signals with more high-frequency content than earthquakes. Even a 1000 sps accelerometer will produce a significantly aliased record. Thus the observed peak ground velocity is strongly dependent on the sampling rate, and increases as the sampling rate is reduced. At 1000 sps we observe ground velocities that exceed those of P-waves from ML 3 earthquakes at local distances, suggesting that sonic booms are not negligible for EQW applications. We present the results of several experiments conducted under SonicBREWS showing the effects of typical-case low amplitude sonic booms and worst-case high amplitude booms. We show the effects of various sensor placements and sensor array geometries. Finally, we suggest possible avenues for discriminating sonic booms from earthquakes for the purposes of EQW.

  9. Refining Prescription Warning Labels Using Patient Feedback: A Qualitative Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka O Shiyanbola

    Full Text Available The complexity of written medication information hinders patients' understanding and leads to patient misuse of prescribed medications. Incorporating patient feedback in designing prescription warning labels (PWLs is crucial in enhancing patient comprehension of medication warning instructions. This qualitative study explored patient feedback on five newly designed PWLs. In-depth semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 21 patients, who were 18 years and older, spoke English, and took a prescription medication. These patients were shown different variations of the five most commonly used PWLs-Take with Food, Do not Drink Alcohol, Take with a Full glass of Water, Do not Chew or Break, and Protect from Sunlight. The 60-minute interviews explored feedback on patient comprehension of the PWL instructions and their suggestions for improving the clarity of the PWLs. At the end of the interview, patient self-reported socio-demographic information was collected with a 3-minute survey and a brief health literacy assessment was completed using the Newest Vital Sign. Twenty-one patients completed the interviews. Most patients were female (n = 15, 71.4% with ages ranging from 23 to 66 years old (mean: 47.6 ± 13.3. The mean health literacy score was 2.4 on a scale of 0-6. Qualitative content analysis based on the text, pictures, and placement of the PWLs on the pill bottle showed preferences for including 'WARNING' on the PWL to create alertness, inclusion of a picture together with the text, yellow color highlighting behind the text, and placement of the PWL on the front of the pill bottle. Although patients had positive opinions of the redesigned PWLs, patients wanted further improvements to the content and design of the PWLs for enhanced clarity and understandability.

  10. World Antimalarial Resistance Network (WARN IV: Clinical pharmacology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbotosho Grace O

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A World Antimalarial Resistance Network (WARN database has the potential to improve the treatment of malaria, through informing current drug selection and use and providing a prompt warning of when treatment policies need changing. This manuscript outlines the contribution and structure of the clinical pharmacology component of this database. The determinants of treatment response are multi-factorial, but clearly providing adequate blood concentrations is pivotal to curing malaria. The ability of available antimalarial pharmacokinetic data to inform optimal dosing is constrained by the small number of patients studied, with even fewer (if any studies conducted in the most vulnerable populations. There are even less data relating blood concentration data to the therapeutic response (pharmacodynamics. By pooling all available pharmacokinetic data, while paying careful attention to the analytical methodologies used, the limitations of small (and thus underpowered individual studies may be overcome and factors that contribute to inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic parameters defined. Key variables for pharmacokinetic studies are defined in terms of patient (or study subject characteristics, the formulation and route of administration of the antimalarial studied, the sampling and assay methodology, and the approach taken to data analysis. Better defining these information needs and criteria of acceptability of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD studies should contribute to improving the quantity, relevance and quality of these studies. A better understanding of the pharmacokinetic properties of antimalarials and a more clear definition of what constitutes "therapeutic drug levels" would allow more precise use of the term "antimalarial resistance", as it would indicate when treatment failure is not caused by intrinsic parasite resistance but is instead the result of inadequate drug levels. The clinical pharmacology component

  11. CONCEPTUAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PACIFIC, ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEMS FOR CANADA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.S. Murty

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Canada has coastlines on three of the four oceans on the globe, namely, the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans. The Pacific and Atlantic oceans are connected to the Arctic Ocean in the north, but still they are three distinct oceans, and need three individual tsunami warning systems. Tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are not as well documented as in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. From what is known, tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are rare and probably are small in amplitude. Because of very low population density, around the Canadian Arctic, at present, there is no priority for a tsunami warning system for Arctic Canada. For the Pacific Ocean, a tsunami warning system is in existence since 1948. In at least one sense, the warning aspects of the tsunami warning system for the Pacific coast of Canada, is relatively simple and straight forward, because it involves only the federal government (PSEPC and the provincial government of British Columbia (PEP. For the Atlantic Ocean, A tsunami warning system is now being established. The warning aspects will be some what more complex for eastern Canada, since it not only involves the federal government, but also five provinces, namely, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Quebec. The Alaska tsunami warning center (ATWC in Palmer, Alaska, provides tsunami warnings for both Pacific and Atlantic Canada.

  12. Is More Better? — Night Vision Enhancement System’s Pedestrian Warning Modes and Older Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Timothy; He, Yefei; Roe, Cheryl; Schnell, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Pedestrian fatalities as a result of vehicle collisions are much more likely to happen at night than during day time. Poor visibility due to darkness is believed to be one of the causes for the higher vehicle collision rate at night. Existing studies have shown that night vision enhancement systems (NVES) may improve recognition distance, but may increase drivers’ workload. The use of automatic warnings (AW) may help minimize workload, improve performance, and increase safety. In this study, we used a driving simulator to examine performance differences of a NVES with six different configurations of warning cues, including: visual, auditory, tactile, auditory and visual, tactile and visual, and no warning. Older drivers between the ages of 65 and 74 participated in the study. An analysis based on the distance to pedestrian threat at the onset of braking response revealed that tactile and auditory warnings performed the best, while visual warnings performed the worst. When tactile or auditory warnings were presented in combination with visual warning, their effectiveness decreased. This result demonstrated that, contrary to general sense regarding warning systems, multi-modal warnings involving visual cues degraded the effectiveness of NVES for older drivers. PMID:21050616

  13. The Construction of Early-warning Index System in Regional Circular Economy of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Yanqing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the model of early warning system for circular economy development system was studied, the early-warning system for circular economy provides a quantitative model to support the pollution control. Specifically, this paper built an early warning index system of regional circular economy, and put forward the measure model for the development of circular economy. In addition, this paper constructed prediction model of the circulation economy development. Finally, by the proposed early warning model, this paper analysed the circular economy of Henan province and targeted policy suggestions were put forward for the construction of circular economy of Henan province.

  14. A European precipitation index for extreme rain‐storm and flash flood early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alfieri, L; Thielen, J

    2015-01-01

    .... Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are still based on rainfall measurements from rain gauges...

  15. 76 FR 67197 - Small Entity Compliance Guide: Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-31

    ... Cigarette Packages and Advertisements; Availability; Correction AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS... of a guidance for industry entitled ``Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements...

  16. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economou, T; Stephenson, D B; Rougier, J C; Neal, R A; Mylne, K R

    2016-10-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

  17. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economou, T.; Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

    2016-10-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

  18. Geoethical issues involved in Tsunami Warning System concepts and operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process

  19. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  20. Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: supporting databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Jakowski

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The use of data is essential in the context of nowcasting, forecasting and warning of ionospheric propagation conditions, with roles to play in the development, evaluation and operation of models and services. Descriptions are given of three databases that have been established in the course of the COST 271 Action: a database of prompt ionospheric soundings, an extension to a database generated by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radars, and a database intended to facilitate evaluation of TEC estimation methods. Each database includes some background information, a description of the contents and interface, and instructions as to how to gain access to it.

  1. Predictions of flood warning threshold exceedance computed with logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diomede, Tommaso; Marsigli, Chiara; Stefania Tesini, Maria

    2017-04-01

    A method based on logistic regression is proposed for the prediction of river level threshold exceedance at different lead times (from +6h up to +42h). The aim of the study is to provide a valuable tool for the issue of warnings by the authority responsible of public safety in case of flood. The role of different precipitation periods as predictors for the exceedance of a fixed river level has been investigated, in order to derive significant information for flood forecasting. Based on catchment-averaged values, a separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" rainfall amounts as independent variables is attempted. In particular, the following flood-related precipitation periods have been considered: (i) the period from 1 to n days before the forecast issue time, which may be relevant for the soil saturation ("state of the catchment"), (ii) the last 24 hours, which may be relevant for the current water level in the river ("state of the river"), and (iii) the period from 0 to x hours in advance with respect to the forecast issue time, when the flood-triggering precipitation generally occurs ("state of the atmosphere"). Several combinations and values of these predictors have been tested to optimise the method implementation. In particular, the period for the precursor antecedent precipitation ranges between 5 and 45 days; the current "state of the river" can be represented by the last 24-h precipitation or, as alternative, by the current river level. The flood-triggering precipitation has been cumulated over the next 18-42 hours, or the previous 6-12h, according to the forecast lead time. The proposed approach requires a specific implementation of logistic regression for each river section and warning threshold. The method performance has been evaluated over several catchments in the Emilia-Romagna Region, northern Italy, which dimensions range from 100 to 1000 km2. A statistical analysis in terms of false alarms, misses and related scores was carried out by using

  2. Advanced Technology Demonstrator for IR Imaging Missile Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-02-01

    13 Figure 9: Paraglider ...but also mountains, towers, other flying platform and e.g. paratroopers/ paragliders . Some of these objects have no plume, this excludes UV-devices for...Figure 9: Paraglider - The device also has to have the ability to recognize these a.m. objects, so it has to be an imaging device with intelligent image

  3. Electrophoresis device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, P. H.; Snyder, R. S. (Inventor)

    1982-01-01

    A device for separating cellular particles of a sample substance into fractionated streams of different cellular species includes a casing having a distribution chamber, a separation chamber, and a collection chamber. The electrode chambers are separated from the separation chamber interior by means of passages such that flow variations and membrane variations around the slotted portion of the electrode chamber do not enduce flow perturbations into the laminar buffer curtain flowing in the separation chamber. The cellular particles of the sample are separated under the influence of the electrical field and the separation chamber into streams of different cellular species. The streams of separated cells enter a partition array in the collection chamber where they are fractionated and collected.

  4. Stratification devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon

    2008-01-01

    heating system. High temperatures in the top of the storage tank established by the energy from the solar collector reduce the use of auxiliary energy. Low temperatures in the bottom of the storage tank improve the operation conditions for the solar collector. Using thermal stratified heat storages...... results in longer operation periods and improved utilization of the solar collector. Thermal stratification can be achieved, for example by using inlet stratification devices at all inlets to the storage tank. This paper presents how thermal stratification is established and utilized by means of inlet......Thermal stratification in the storage tank is extremely important in order to achieve high thermal performance of a solar heating system. High temperatures in the top of the storage tank and low temperatures in the bottom of the storage tank lead to the best operation conditions for any solar...

  5. Design of Expressway communication protocol for automotive collision warning systems%高速公路汽车防碰撞预警系统的通信协议设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邹光寿; 蔡启仲; 蓝全钊; 翁超; 包华倩; 潘绍明

    2013-01-01

    文章根据自主设计的一种高速公路汽车防碰撞预警系统,车载装置检测车辆运行状况,判断车辆运行是否异常或有故障,自动或手动发送信息预警,高速公路路边装置接收车载装置的信息,根据信息类型向该车辆行驶方向后面的路边装置发送信息,后面的路边装置将车辆前方的交通异常状况发送给车载装置。文章中构建Zigbee无线网络,设计无线通信协议,规范了车载装置与路边装置,路边装置相互之间,车载装置与入口测试启动装置,出口关闭装置,通信频率设置的通信协议,给出了程序流程图,经过测试满足高速公路汽车防碰撞预警系统的应用要求。%Presented a highway motor vehicle collision warning systems, autonomous speed highway-vehicle devices on vehicles, and to determine whether the vehicle speed set security value below the highway automatically, you can manually send message warning, freeway on-ramp test starter on highway vehicle performance testing device, start the highway-vehicle device, set up safe speed limit, Highway closed highways closed device-vehicle device features Highway direction of travel frequency settings, device settings Highway truck-mounted communications device in the highway direction frequencies, expressway monitoring and communication device real-time monitoring of vehicle travel, and while the vehicles are in normal form, anti-collision warning output; The highway vehicle collision warning systems can be monitored in real time and receive the abnormal traffic safety warnings ahead, sent the safe speed limit values due to weather and road conditions change, improves the safety of highway traffic.

  6. Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna

    2017-07-01

    Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.

  7. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of theinfluenza pandemic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ren Di; Gao Jie

    2011-01-01

    Over the course of human history,influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters,so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars.Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties,chemical characteristics,external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus,and some results have been achieved.Based on the chaos game representation walk model,this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010,and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic.The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years,while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller.In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

  8. Multi-parameter algorithm for Earthquake Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakhi Bhardwaj

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake Early Warning (EEW system is a real-time earthquake damage mitigation system. It detects, analyzes and transmits information of the impending event at the potential user sites. In the present study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-parameter-based EEW algorithm for accurate and reliable issuance of EEW. In the present study, not only the individual parameters such as maximum predominant period (, average period (τc, peak displacement (Pd, cumulative absolute velocity and root sum of squares cumulative velocity have been used to develop an algorithm but also various combinations have been attempted to issue alarm. The criterion for issuing warning is based on the alarm status of combinations of parameters at nearest four stations within selected epicentral distance of the event. It has been concluded that three parameter preference-based approach provides most efficient results at a time window of 4 s. The data-set for estimating various parameters required for multi-parameter algorithm has been taken from K-NET seismic array (Japan. The algorithm has been validated on the data taken from different regions. Based on the validation carried out using Indian and PEER-NGA database, the results revealed better performance of multi-parametric EEW algorithm.

  9. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  10. Superficial siderosis is a warning sign for future intracranial hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linn, Jennifer; Wollenweber, Frank A; Lummel, Nina; Bochmann, Katja; Pfefferkorn, Thomas; Gschwendtner, Andreas; Bruckmann, Hartmut; Dichgans, Martin; Opherk, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Supratentorial superficial siderosis (SS) is a frequent imaging marker of cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA). It is most probably caused by focal subarachnoid hemorrhages (fSAHs). Based on single-case observations, it has been proposed that such fSAHs might be a predisposing factor for future intracranial hemorrhage. Here we tested the hypothesis if a SS as a residue of fSAHs must be regarded as a warning sign for future intracranial hemorrhage. Fifty-one consecutive patients with SS and no apparent cause other than possible or probable CAA were identified through a database search and followed-up for a median interval of 35.3 months (range 6-120 months). Main outcome measures were rate and location of new intracranial hemorrhages. Twenty-four patients (47.1 %) had experienced any new intracranial hemorrhage, 18 patients (35.3 %) had an intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and in 13 of them (25.5 %), the hemorrhage was located at the site of pre-existing siderosis. Six patients (11.7 %) had developed a new subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), four of them at the site of siderosis. Patients with SS are at substantial risk for subsequent intracranial hemorrhage. SS can be considered a warning sign of future ICH or SAH, which frequently occur adjacent to pre-existing SS. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

  11. Interpretations of cigarette advertisement warning labels by Philadelphia Puerto Ricans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Nancy; Gilpin, Dawn R; Lenos, Melissa; Hobbs, Renee

    2011-09-01

    This study examined Philadelphia Puerto Ricans' interpretations of the Surgeon General's warnings that appear on cigarette packaging and in advertisements. In-home family focus groups in which participants were asked to comment on magazine cigarette advertisements showed a great variety of interpretations of the legally mandated warning labels. These findings (a) corroborate and add to research in public health and communications regarding the possibility of wide variations in message interpretations and (b) support the call for public health messages to be carefully tested for effectiveness among different social groups. The article's focus on Puerto Ricans addresses the problem of misleading conclusions that can arise from aggregating all Latino subpopulations into one group. The use of a naturalistic setting to examine interpretations of messages about smoking departs from the experimental methods typically used for such research and provides new evidence that even a seemingly straightforward message can be interpreted in multiple ways. Understanding and addressing differences in message interpretation can guide public health campaigns aimed at reducing health disparities. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

  12. Effect of directional speech warnings on road hazard detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Jesús; Di Stasi, Leandro L; Megías, Alberto; Catena, Andrés

    2011-12-01

    In the last 2 decades, cognitive science and the transportation psychology field have dedicated a lot of effort to designing advanced driver support systems. Verbal warning systems are increasingly being implemented in modern automobiles in an effort to increase road safety. The study presented here investigated the impact of directional speech alert messages on the participants' speed to judge whether or not naturalistic road scenes depicted a situation of impending danger. Thirty-eight volunteers performed a computer-based key-press reaction time task. Findings indicated that semantic content of verbal warning signals can be used for increasing driving safety and improving hazard detection. Furthermore, the classical result regarding signal accuracy is confirmed: directional informative speech messages lead to faster hazard detection compared to drivers who received a high rate of false alarms. Notwithstanding some study limitations (lack of driver experience and low ecological validity), this evidence could provide important information for the specification of future Human-Machine-interaction (HMI) design guidelines.

  13. Early warning of changing drinking water quality by trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomperi, Jani; Juuso, Esko; Leiviskä, Kauko

    2016-06-01

    Monitoring and control of water treatment plants play an essential role in ensuring high quality drinking water and avoiding health-related problems or economic losses. The most common quality variables, which can be used also for assessing the efficiency of the water treatment process, are turbidity and residual levels of coagulation and disinfection chemicals. In the present study, the trend indices are developed from scaled measurements to detect warning signs of changes in the quality variables of drinking water and some operating condition variables that strongly affect water quality. The scaling is based on monotonically increasing nonlinear functions, which are generated with generalized norms and moments. Triangular episodes are classified with the trend index and its derivative. Deviation indices are used to assess the severity of situations. The study shows the potential of the described trend analysis as a predictive monitoring tool, as it provides an advantage over the traditional manual inspection of variables by detecting changes in water quality and giving early warnings.

  14. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  15. A geomagnetically induced current warning system: model development and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, A.; Clarke, E.; Reay, S.; Thomson, A.

    Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC), which can flow in technological systems at the Earth's surface, are a consequence of magnetic storms and Space Weather. A well-documented practical problem for the power transmission industry is that GIC can affect the lifetime and performance of transformers within the power grid. Operational mitigation is widely considered to be one of the best strategies to manage the Space Weather and GIC risk. Therefore in the UK a magnetic storm warning and GIC monitoring and analysis programme has been under development by the British Geological Survey and Scottish Power plc (the power grid operator for Central Scotland) since 1999. Under the auspices of the European Space Agency's service development activities BGS is developing the capability to meet two key user needs that have been identified. These needs are, firstly, the development of a near real-time solar wind shock/ geomagnetic storm warning, based on L1 solar wind data and, secondly, the development of an integrated surface geo-electric field and power grid network model that should allow prediction of GIC throughout the power grid in near real time. While the final goal is a `seamless package', the components of the package utilise diverse scientific techniques. We review progress to date with particular regard to the validation of the individual components of the package. The Scottish power grid response to the October 2003 magnetic storms is also discussed and model and validation data are presented.

  16. Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Ronald L; Ash, Kevin D; Bowser, Gregg C

    2017-06-30

    Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large-casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado-related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information-seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information-seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eveslage, Ingmar; Fischer, Joachim; Kühnlenz, Frank; Lichtblau, Björn; Milkereit, Claus; Picozzi, Matteo

    2010-05-01

    The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures (as we could proof during the L'Aquila earthquake) or technical systems and most recently for seismic microzonation. Nevertheless the main purpose SOSEWIN was initially invented for is the earthquake early warning and rapid response, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected cooperatively in a two-level hierarchical alarming protocol. Experiences and experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. The limited size of this installation with currently 20 nodes allows not answering certain questions regarding the useful or possible size of a SOSEWIN installation

  18. Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey : Status Update 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kalafat, D.; Yilmazer, M.; Comoglu, M.; Sanli, U.; Gurbuz, C.; Erdik, M.

    2012-04-01

    This is an update to EGU2011-3094 informing on the progress of the establishment of a National Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey (NTWC-TR) under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission - Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (IOC-ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative. NTWC-TR is integrated into the 24/7 operational National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC) of KOERI comprising 129 BB and 61 strong motion sensors. Based on an agreement with the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (DEMP), data from 10 BB stations located in the Aegean and Mediterranean Coast is now transmitted in real time to KOERI. Real-time data transmission from 6 primary and 10 auxiliary stations from the International Monitoring System will be in place in the very near future based on an agreement concluded with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in 2011. In an agreement with a major Turkish GSM company, KOERI is enlarging its strong-motion network to promote real-time seismology and to extend Earthquake Early Warning system countrywide. 25 accelerometers (included in the number given above) have been purchased and installed at Base Transceiver Station Sites in coastal regions within the scope of this initiative. Data from 3 tide gauge stations operated by General Command of Mapping (GCM) is being transmitted to KOERI via satellite connection and the aim is to integrate all tide-gauge stations operated by GCM into NTWC-TR. A collaborative agreement has been signed with the European Commission - Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) and MOD1 Tsunami Scenario Database and TAT (Tsunami Analysis Tool) are received by KOERI and user training was provided. The database and the tool are linked to SeisComp3 and currently operational. In addition KOERI is continuing the work towards providing contributions to JRC in order to develop an improved database

  19. Integrated device architectures for electrochromic devices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frey, Jonathan Mack; Berland, Brian Spencer

    2015-04-21

    This disclosure describes systems and methods for creating monolithically integrated electrochromic devices which may be a flexible electrochromic device. Monolithic integration of thin film electrochromic devices may involve the electrical interconnection of multiple individual electrochromic devices through the creation of specific structures such as conductive pathway or insulating isolation trenches.

  20. Weather based warning systems for bean angular-leaf-spot and anthracnose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erlei Melo Reis

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Data available in the literature were used to develop a warning system for bean angular leaf spot and anthracnose, caused by Phaeoisariopsis griseola and Colletotrichum lindemuthianum, respectively. The model is based on favorable environmental conditions for the infectious process such as continuous leaf wetness duration and mean air temperature during this subphase of the pathogen-host relationship cycle. Equations published by DALLA PRIA (1977 showing the interactions of those two factors on the disease severity were used. Excell spreadsheet was used to calculate the leaf wetness period needed to cause different infection probabilities at different temperature ranges. These data were employed to elaborate critical period tables used to program a computerized electronic device that records leaf wetness duration and mean temperature and automatically shows the daily disease severity value (DDSV for each disease. The model should be validated in field experiments under natural infection for which the daily disease severity sum (DDSS should be identified as a criterion to indicate the beginning and the interval of fungicide applications to control both diseases.

  1. Early warning system for detection of microbial contamination of source waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogensen, Claus Tilsted; Bentien, Anders; Lau, Mogens; Højris, Bo; Iversen, Kåre; Klinting, Mette; Berg, Tommy Winter; Agersnap, Niels; Valvik, Martin

    2011-06-01

    Ensuring chemical and microbial water quality is an ever increasing important issue world-wide. Currently, determination of microbial water quality is a time (and money) consuming manual laboratory process. We have developed and field-tested an online and real-time sensor for measuring the microbial water quality of a wide range of source waters. The novel optical technique, in combination with advanced data analysis, yields a measure for the microbial content present in the sample. This gives a fast and reliable detection capability of microbial contamination of the source. Sample acquisition and analysis is performed real-time where objects in suspension are differentiated into e.g. organic/inorganic subgroups. The detection system is a compact, low power, reagentless device and thus ideal for applications where long service intervals and remote operations are desired. Due to the very large dynamic range in measured parameters, the system is able to monitor process water in industry and food production as well as monitor waste water, source water and water distribution systems. The applications envisioned for this system includes early warning of source water contamination and/or variation. This includes: water plants/water distribution networks, filtration systems (water purification), commercial buildings, swimming pools, waste water effluent, and industry in general.

  2. Laser device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Jill R.; Tremblay, Paul L.

    2007-07-10

    A laser device includes a target position, an optical component separated a distance J from the target position, and a laser energy source separated a distance H from the optical component, distance H being greater than distance J. A laser source manipulation mechanism exhibits a mechanical resolution of positioning the laser source. The mechanical resolution is less than a spatial resolution of laser energy at the target position as directed through the optical component. A vertical and a lateral index that intersect at an origin can be defined for the optical component. The manipulation mechanism can auto align laser aim through the origin during laser source motion. The laser source manipulation mechanism can include a mechanical index. The mechanical index can include a pivot point for laser source lateral motion and a reference point for laser source vertical motion. The target position can be located within an adverse environment including at least one of a high magnetic field, a vacuum system, a high pressure system, and a hazardous zone. The laser source and an electro-mechanical part of the manipulation mechanism can be located outside the adverse environment. The manipulation mechanism can include a Peaucellier linkage.

  3. Key Parameters Estimation and Adaptive Warning Strategy for Rear-End Collision of Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Song

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The rear-end collision warning system requires reliable warning decision mechanism to adapt the actual driving situation. To overcome the shortcomings of existing warning methods, an adaptive strategy is proposed to address the practical aspects of the collision warning problem. The proposed strategy is based on the parameter-adaptive and variable-threshold approaches. First, several key parameter estimation algorithms are developed to provide more accurate and reliable information for subsequent warning method. They include a two-stage algorithm which contains a Kalman filter and a Luenberger observer for relative acceleration estimation, a Bayesian theory-based algorithm of estimating the road friction coefficient, and an artificial neural network for estimating the driver’s reaction time. Further, the variable-threshold warning method is designed to achieve the global warning decision. In the method, the safety distance is employed to judge the dangerous state. The calculation method of the safety distance in this paper can be adaptively adjusted according to the different driving conditions of the leading vehicle. Due to the real-time estimation of the key parameters and the adaptive calculation of the warning threshold, the strategy can adapt to various road and driving conditions. Finally, the proposed strategy is evaluated through simulation and field tests. The experimental results validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  4. 32 CFR 644.531 - Warning to public of danger in handling explosive missiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Warning to public of danger in handling explosive... Contamination from Proposed Excess Land and Improvements § 644.531 Warning to public of danger in handling... of contaminants remaining on the land and the inherent danger of handling explosives or...

  5. Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

  6. [Research of early-warning method for regional groundwater pollution based on risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Li-Ping; Wang, Ye-Yao; Guo, Yong-Li; Zhou, You-Ya; Liu, Li; Yan, Zeng-Guang; Li, Fa-Sheng

    2014-08-01

    Groundwater is the main source of water supply in China, and China's overall situation of groundwater pollution is not optimistic at present. Groundwater pollution risk evaluation and early-warning are the effective measures to prevent groundwater pollution. At present, research of groundwater early-warning method at home and abroad is still at the exploratory stage, and the sophisticated technology has not been developed for reference. This paper briefly described the data and technological demand of the early-warning method in different scales, and the main factors influencing the early-warning results of groundwater pollution were classified as protection performance of geological medium, characteristics of pollution sources, groundwater dynamics and groundwater value. Then the main early-warning indexes of groundwater pollution were screened to establish the early-warning model of regional or watershed scale by the index overlay method. At last, the established early-warning model was used in Baotou plain, and the different early-warning grades were zoned by the model. The research results could provide scientific support for the local management department to protect the groundwater resources.

  7. 76 FR 70971 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Societal Response to Tornado Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-16

    ... Response to Tornado Warnings AGENCY: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). ACTION: Notice... examine the societal impacts of tornado warnings, specifically the methods of receipt, response, and the... Following a particularly deadly year of tornadoes in the United States despite the existence of adequate...

  8. 37 CFR 201.24 - Warning of copyright for software lending by nonprofit libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... software lending by nonprofit libraries. 201.24 Section 201.24 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights COPYRIGHT OFFICE, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS COPYRIGHT OFFICE AND PROCEDURES GENERAL PROVISIONS § 201.24 Warning of copyright for software lending by nonprofit libraries. (a) Definition. A Warning of Copyright for...

  9. 37 CFR 201.14 - Warnings of copyright for use by certain libraries and archives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... by certain libraries and archives. 201.14 Section 201.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights COPYRIGHT OFFICE, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS COPYRIGHT OFFICE AND PROCEDURES GENERAL PROVISIONS § 201.14 Warnings of copyright for use by certain libraries and archives. (a) Definitions. (1) A Display Warning...

  10. FloodAlert: a simplified radar-based EWS for urban flood warning

    OpenAIRE

    Llort Pavon, Xavier; Sánchez-Diezma Guijarro, Rafael; Rodríguez, Álvaro; De Sancho, David; Berenguer Ferrer, Marc; Sempere Torres, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In this work we present FloodAlert, a simplified flood Early Warning System [EWS] based on the use of radar observations and radar nowcasting to issue local flood warnings. It is a web-based platform and it is complemented with a flexible and powerful dissemination module.

  11. 49 CFR 176.325 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in... material. (b) A sign carrying the legend: FLAMMABLE VAPORS KEEP LIGHTS AND FIRE AWAY NO SMOKING must...

  12. 49 CFR 176.220 - Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs... CARRIAGE BY VESSEL Detailed Requirements for Class 2 (Compressed Gas) Materials § 176.220 Smoking or open flame and posting of warning signs. (a) Smoking or the use of open flame is prohibited in any hold...

  13. 21 CFR 369.4 - Warnings suggested for drugs by formal or informal statements of policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Warnings suggested for drugs by formal or informal statements of policy. 369.4 Section 369.4 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS FOR HUMAN USE INTERPRETATIVE STATEMENTS RE WARNINGS ON DRUGS...

  14. A Microseismic Method for Dynamic Warning of Rockburst Development Processes in Tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Guang-Liang; Feng, Xia-Ting; Chen, Bing-rui; Xiao, Ya-Xun; Yu, Yang

    2015-09-01

    Early warning of rockbursts remains a worldwide challenge in rock engineering. In this work, a microseismicity-based method of rockburst warning in tunnels is proposed to warn of and reduce the risk of rockburst. The method uses real-time microseismic data and an established rockburst warning formula to provide dynamic warning of rockburst risk during excavation of a tunnel. The establishment of the rockburst warning formula involves several key parts. These include a rockburst database, selection of typical rockburst cases, functional relationships between microseismicity and rockbursts, optimal weighting coefficients, and dynamic updating. By using the proposed method, the probability of strain and strain-structure slip rockbursts of different intensity (extremely intense, intense, moderate, slight, and none) can be warned of in real time. The method has been successfully applied to rockburst warning in deeply buried tunnels at the Jinping II hydropower project (about 11.6 km in total for D & B tunnels). This success illustrates the applicability of the proposed method. In addition, it is found that during the rockburst development process, the microseismic eigenvalues for strainbursts are bigger than in strain-structure slip rockbursts of the same intensity.

  15. 40 CFR 82.110 - Form of label bearing warning statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... contrast are: black letters on a dark blue or dark green background, dark red letters on a light red... warning statement shall be the standard chemical name of the substance as listed in 40 CFR part 82... size for the warning statement on any alternative placement which meets the requirements of §...

  16. 76 FR 55332 - Federal Bureau of Investigation Anti-Piracy Warning Seal Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-07

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE 41 CFR Part 128-1 RIN 1110-AA32 Federal Bureau of Investigation Anti-Piracy Warning Seal Program AGENCY...- Piracy Warning Seal (APW Seal). The proposed rule will provide access to the APW Seal to all...

  17. 49 CFR 214.329 - Train approach warning provided by watchmen/lookouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Train approach warning provided by watchmen... Protection § 214.329 Train approach warning provided by watchmen/lookouts. Roadway workers in a roadway work... or more watchmen/lookouts in accordance with the following provisions: (a) Train approach...

  18. 21 CFR 369.9 - General warnings re accidental ingestion by children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false General warnings re accidental ingestion by... OVER-THE-COUNTER SALE Definitions and Interpretations § 369.9 General warnings re accidental ingestion... possibility of accidental ingestion of drugs, it is not only suggested but is recommended that one of these...

  19. Desire versus efficacy in smokers' paradoxical reactions to pictorial health warnings for cigarettes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Romer

    Full Text Available Pictorial health warnings on cigarette packs create aversive emotional reactions to smoking and induce thoughts about quitting; however, contrary to models of health behavior change, they do not appear to alter intentions to quit smoking. We propose and test a novel model of intention to quit an addictive habit such as smoking (the efficacy-desire model that can explain this paradoxical effect. At the core of the model is the prediction that self-efficacy and desire to quit an addictive habit are inversely related. We tested the model in an online experiment that randomly exposed smokers (N = 3297 to a cigarette pack with one of three increasing levels of warning intensity. The results supported the model's prediction that despite the effects of warnings on aversion to smoking, intention to quit smoking is an inverted U-shape function of the smoker's self-efficacy for quitting. In addition, smokers with greater (lesser quit efficacy relative to smoking efficacy increase (decrease intentions to quit. The findings show that previous failures to observe effects of pictorial warning labels on quit intentions can be explained by the contradictory individual differences that warnings produce. Thus, the model explains the paradoxical finding that quit intentions do not change at the population level, even though smokers recognize the implications of warnings. The model suggests that pictorial warnings are effective for smokers with stronger quit-efficacy beliefs and provides guidance for how cigarette warnings and tobacco control strategies can be designed to help smokers quit.

  20. Caution: Alcohol Advertising and the Surgeon General's Alcohol Warnings May Have Adverse Effects on Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blood, Deborah J.; Snyder, Leslie B.

    A study investigated the effects of the newly introduced Surgeon General's alcohol warnings and advertisements on college students. One hundred fifty-nine undergraduates in communication sciences at the University of Connecticut viewed slides of alcohol products, with or without advertisements and warnings. Following the viewings, subjects filled…

  1. 30 CFR 817.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 817.11. The operator...

  2. 30 CFR 816.66 - Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings... STANDARDS-SURFACE MINING ACTIVITIES § 816.66 Use of explosives: Blasting signs, warnings, and access control. (a) Blasting signs. Blasting signs shall meet the specifications of § 816.11. The operator shall—...

  3. Graphic Warning Labels Elicit Affective and Thoughtful Responses from Smokers: Results of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abigail T Evans

    Full Text Available Observational research suggests that placing graphic images on cigarette warning labels can reduce smoking rates, but field studies lack experimental control. Our primary objective was to determine the psychological processes set in motion by naturalistic exposure to graphic vs. text-only warnings in a randomized clinical trial involving exposure to modified cigarette packs over a 4-week period. Theories of graphic-warning impact were tested by examining affect toward smoking, credibility of warning information, risk perceptions, quit intentions, warning label memory, and smoking risk knowledge.Adults who smoked between 5 and 40 cigarettes daily (N = 293; mean age = 33.7, did not have a contra-indicated medical condition, and did not intend to quit were recruited from Philadelphia, PA and Columbus, OH. Smokers were randomly assigned to receive their own brand of cigarettes for four weeks in one of three warning conditions: text only, graphic images plus text, or graphic images with elaborated text.Data from 244 participants who completed the trial were analyzed in structural-equation models. The presence of graphic images (compared to text-only caused more negative affect toward smoking, a process that indirectly influenced risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk perception->quit intention. Negative affect from graphic images also enhanced warning credibility including through increased scrutiny of the warnings, a process that also indirectly affected risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk scrutiny->warning credibility->risk perception->quit intention. Unexpectedly, elaborated text reduced warning credibility. Finally, graphic warnings increased warning-information recall and indirectly increased smoking-risk knowledge at the end of the trial and one month later.In the first naturalistic clinical trial conducted, graphic warning labels are more effective than text-only warnings

  4. A new type of tri-axial accelerometers with high dynamic range MEMS for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chaoyong; Chen, Yang; Chen, Quansheng; Yang, Jiansi; Wang, Hongti; Zhu, Xiaoyi; Xu, Zhiqiang; Zheng, Yu

    2017-03-01

    Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) has shown its efficiency for earthquake damage mitigation. As the progress of low-cost Micro Electro Mechanical System (MEMS), many types of MEMS-based accelerometers have been developed and widely used in deploying large-scale, dense seismic networks for EEWS. However, the noise performance of these commercially available MEMS is still insufficient for weak seismic signals, leading to the large scatter of early-warning parameters estimation. In this study, we developed a new type of tri-axial accelerometer based on high dynamic range MEMS with low noise level using for EEWS. It is a MEMS-integrated data logger with built-in seismological processing. The device is built on a custom-tailored Linux 2.6.27 operating system and the method for automatic detecting seismic events is STA/LTA algorithms. When a seismic event is detected, peak ground parameters of all data components will be calculated at an interval of 1 s, and τc-Pd values will be evaluated using the initial 3 s of P wave. These values will then be organized as a trigger packet actively sent to the processing center for event combining detection. The output data of all three components are calibrated to sensitivity 500 counts/cm/s2. Several tests and a real field test deployment were performed to obtain the performances of this device. The results show that the dynamic range can reach 98 dB for the vertical component and 99 dB for the horizontal components, and majority of bias temperature coefficients are lower than 200 μg/°C. In addition, the results of event detection and real field deployment have shown its capabilities for EEWS and rapid intensity reporting.

  5. Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for Geological Hazards Based on Logistic Regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Jing; YANG Chi; ZHANG Guoping

    2007-01-01

    Information model is adopted to integrate factors of various geosciences to estimate the susceptibility of geological hazards. Further combining the dynamic rainfall observations, Logistic regression is used for modeling the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences, upon which hierarchical warnings for rainfall-induced geological hazards are produced. The forecasting and warning model takes numerical precipitation forecasts on grid points as its dynamic input, forecasts the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences on the same grid, and translates the results into likelihoods in the form of a 5-level hierarchy. Validation of the model with observational data for the year 2004 shows that 80% of the geological hazards of the year have been identified as "likely enough to release warning messages". The model can satisfy the requirements of an operational warning system, thus is an effective way to improve the meteorological warnings for geological hazards.

  6. Predictors of compliance with tornado warnings issued in Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Bimal Kanti; Stimers, Mitchel; Caldas, Marcellus

    2015-01-01

    Joplin, a city in the southwest corner of Missouri, United States, suffered an EF-5 tornado in the late afternoon of 22 May 2011. This event, which claimed the lives of 162 people, represents the deadliest single tornado to strike the US since modern record-keeping began in 1950. This study examines the factors associated with responses to tornado warnings. Based on a post-tornado survey of survivors in Joplin, it reveals that tornado warnings were adequate and timely. Multivariate logistic regression identified four statistically significant determinants of compliance with tornado warnings: number of warning sources, whether respondents were at home when the tornado struck, past tornado experience, and gender. The findings suggest several recommendations, the implementation of which will further improve responses to tornado warnings. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  7. Response time effects of alerting tone and semantic context for synthesized voice cockpit warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, C. A.; Williams, D. H.

    1980-01-01

    Some handbooks and human factors design guides have recommended that a voice warning should be preceded by a tone to attract attention to the warning. As far as can be determined from a search of the literature, no experimental evidence supporting this exists. A fixed-base simulator flown by airline pilots was used to test the hypothesis that the total 'system-time' to respond to a synthesized voice cockpit warning would be longer when the message was preceded by a tone because the voice itself was expected to perform both the alerting and the information transfer functions. The simulation included realistic ATC radio voice communications, synthesized engine noise, cockpit conversation, and realistic flight routes. The effect of a tone before a voice warning was to lengthen response time; that is, responses were slower with an alerting tone. Lengthening the voice warning with another work, however, did not increase response time.

  8. Geo-hazards risk zonation and warning system based on GIS in Anshan City of Liaoning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhishuang YANG; Mao PAN; Xiaopeng WANG

    2006-01-01

    Debris flow and Karst collapse are the main parts of geological disasters in Anshan, which have affected on the construction and development of the social economy of Anshan. In order to enhance the studies of rules of disaster and give scientific estimation and alarm ahead of schedule warning, we established the warning system of Anshan and investigated the corresponding software, which are based on the deep discussions about the crisis estimation and methods of prediction of disasters. In this paper, the foundation of model used in estimating the alarm ahead of schedule for disaster and the methods of appraisal for the alarm ahead of schedule are discussed. This system for warning and evaluating is the combination of the models of warning and GIS flat roof, with so many virtues, such as complete functions, convenience, applicability, which has considered the output of data, analyses of space, chooses of model, output of production, report of information for warning and the statements and help of system.

  9. NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, P.; Refidaff, C.; Caropolo, M.; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Knight, W.; Sammler, W.; Sandrik, A.

    2009-01-01

    West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

  10. Diagnosis and Early Warning of Wind Turbine Faults Based on Cluster Analysis Theory and Modified ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan Zhou

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The construction of large-scale wind farms results in a dramatic increase of wind turbine (WT faults. The failure mode is also becoming increasingly complex. This study proposes a new model for early warning and diagnosis of WT faults to solve the problem of Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA systems, given that the traditional threshold method cannot provide timely warning. First, the characteristic quantity of fault early warning and diagnosis analyzed by clustering analysis can obtain in advance abnormal data in the normal threshold range by considering the effects of wind speed. Based on domain knowledge, Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS is then modified to establish the fault early warning and diagnosis model. This approach improves the accuracy of the model under the condition of absent and sparse training data. Case analysis shows that the effect of the early warning and diagnosis model in this study is better than that of the traditional threshold method.

  11. Overview of Existing Landslide Early-Warning Systems in Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2012-04-01

    The project SafeLand is intended to develop generic risk management tools and strategies for landslides. Indeed, the intention of the screening study is to provide guidelines that will help and facilitate the establishment of new early warning systems (EWS) and to increase the quality of existing systems (Bazin et al., 2012). Consequently, one of the first steps is to merge actual knowledge and expert judgments. Thus, as part of this study, we gathered experiences from organizations in charge of landslide EWSs and risk management in order to compile information about the state of the art technologies and existing strategies. To ensure those objectives, a questionnaire was produced by UNIL, ICG and ÅTB. Divided in 5 parts, the questionnaires collected information about: 1. General information on the unit in charge of the EWS; 2. Knowledge about the monitored landslide; 3. Pre-investigations used to design the EWS; 4. Monitoring parameters, thresholds and sensors evaluation; 5. Warnings, communications and decision making process. Finally, sent in June 2011 to about hundred organizations in charge of one or several EWS, 14 institutions from 8 countries sent the questionnaires back during the summer and autumn 2011, speaking about 23 landslides. The compilation and analysis of the most interesting answers are the scope of this poster. First, there are no common requirements to design and operate EWSs. From the surveyed countries, only Norway and Slovakia have produced codes or recommendations for this purpose. Secondly, more than 81% of the EWSs are based on displacement monitoring, certainly because it is the direct evidence of deformations. Then the weather conditions are monitored for more than half of the cases. It is also an essential parameter since rainfalls are a destabilizing factor for more than 80% of the studied landslides. Then, advantages and limitations of existing EWSs are clearly defined. Indeed, an EWS should be (1) robust, (2) simple, (3) redundant

  12. Aircraft Low Altitude Wind Shear Detection and Warning System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, Peter C.; Kuhn, Peter M.

    1991-01-01

    There is now considerable evidence to substantiate the causal relationship between low altitude wind shear (LAWS) and the recent increase in low-altitude aircraft accidents. The National Research Council has found that for the period 1964 to 1982, LAWS was involved in nearly all the weather-related air carrier fatalities. However, at present, there is no acceptable method, technique, or hardware system that provides the necessary safety margins, for spatial and timely detection of LAWS from an aircraft during the critical phases of landing and takeoff. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has addressed this matter and supports the development of an airborne system for detecting hazardous LAWS with at least a one minute warning of the potential hazard to the pilot. One of the purposes of this paper is to show from some of our preliminary flight measurement research that a forward looking infrared radiometer (FLIR) system can be used to successfully detect the cool downdraft of downbursts [microbursts/macrobursts (MB)] and thunderstorm gust front outflows that are responsible for most of the LAWS events. The FLIR system provides a much greater safety margin for the pilot than that provided by reactive designs such as inertial-air speed systems that require the actual penetration of the MB before a pilot warning can be initiated. Our preliminary results indicate that an advanced airborne FLIR system could provide the pilot with remote indication of MB threat, location, movement, and predicted MB hazards along the flight path ahead of the aircraft.In a proof-of-concept experiment, we have flight tested a prototype FLIR system (nonscanning, fixed range) near and within Colorado MBs with excellent detectability. The results show that a minimum warning time of one-four minutes (5×10 km), depending on aircraft speed, is available to the pilot prior to a MB encounter. Analysis of the flight data with respect to a modified `hazard index' indicates the severe hazard

  13. Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of

  14. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  15. Medical devices: US medical device regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarow, Jonathan P; Baxley, John H

    2015-03-01

    Medical devices are regulated by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) within the Center for Devices and Radiological Health. Center for Devices and Radiological Health is responsible for protecting and promoting the public health by ensuring the safety, effectiveness, and quality of medical devices, ensuring the safety of radiation-emitting products, fostering innovation, and providing the public with accurate, science-based information about the products we oversee, throughout the total product life cycle. The FDA was granted the authority to regulate the manufacturing and marketing of medical devices in 1976. It does not regulate the practice of medicine. Devices are classified based on complexity and level of risk, and "pre-1976" devices were allowed to remain on the market after being classified without FDA review. Post-1976 devices of lower complexity and risk that are substantially equivalent to a marketed "predicate" device may be cleared through the 510(k) premarket notification process. Clinical data are typically not needed for 510(k) clearance. In contrast, higher-risk devices typically require premarket approval. Premarket approval applications must contain data demonstrating reasonable assurance of safety and efficacy, and this information typically includes clinical data. For novel devices that are not high risk, the de novo process allows FDA to simultaneously review and classify new devices. Devices that are not legally marketed are permitted to be used for clinical investigation purposes in the United States under the Investigational Device Exemptions regulation.

  16. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

    2016-04-01

    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  17. Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

    CERN Document Server

    Squartini, Tiziano; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2013-01-01

    The financial crisis marked a paradigm shift, from traditional studies of individual risk to recent research on the "systemic risk" generated by whole networks of institutions. However, the reverse effects of realized defaults on network topology are poorly understood. Here we analyze the Dutch interbank network over the period 1998-2008, ending with the global crisis. We find that many topological properties, after controlling for overall density effects, display an abrupt change in 2008, thus providing a clear but unpredictable signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the intrinsic heterogeneity of banks is controlled for, the same properties undergo a slow and continuous transition, gradually connecting the crisis period to a much earlier stationary phase. This early-warning signal begins in 2005, and is preceded by an even earlier period of "risk autocatalysis" characterized by anomalous debt loops. These remarkable precursors are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific inf...

  18. Space systems for disaster warning, response, and recovery

    CERN Document Server

    Madry, Scott

    2015-01-01

    This SpringerBrief provides a general overview of the role of satellite applications for disaster mitigation, warning, planning, recovery and response. It covers both the overall role and perspective of the emergency management community as well as the various space applications that support their work. Key insights are provided as to how satellite telecommunications, remote sensing, navigation systems, GIS, and the emerging domain of social media are utilized in the context of emergency management needs and requirements. These systems are now critical in addressing major man-made and natural disasters. International policy and treaties are covered along with various case studies from around the world. These case studies indicate vital lessons that have been learned about how to use space systems more effectively in addressing the so-called “Disaster Cycle.” This book is appropriate for practicing emergency managers, Emergency Management (EM) courses, as well as for those involved in various space applica...

  19. Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Montesarchio

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions. Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate for the case study of Mignone River are presented.

  20. Rapid estimate of earthquake source duration: application to tsunami warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reymond, Dominique; Jamelot, Anthony; Hyvernaud, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    We present a method for estimating the source duration of the fault rupture, based on the high-frequency envelop of teleseismic P-Waves, inspired from the original work of (Ni et al., 2005). The main interest of the knowledge of this seismic parameter is to detect abnormal low velocity ruptures that are the characteristic of the so called 'tsunami-earthquake' (Kanamori, 1972). The validation of the results of source duration estimated by this method are compared with two other independent methods : the estimated duration obtained by the Wphase inversion (Kanamori and Rivera, 2008, Duputel et al., 2012) and the duration calculated by the SCARDEC process that determines the source time function (M. Vallée et al., 2011). The estimated source duration is also confronted to the slowness discriminant defined by Newman and Okal, 1998), that is calculated routinely for all earthquakes detected by our tsunami warning process (named PDFM2, Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism, (Clément and Reymond, 2014)). Concerning the point of view of operational tsunami warning, the numerical simulations of tsunami are deeply dependent on the source estimation: better is the source estimation, better will be the tsunami forecast. The source duration is not directly injected in the numerical simulations of tsunami, because the cinematic of the source is presently totally ignored (Jamelot and Reymond, 2015). But in the case of a tsunami-earthquake that occurs in the shallower part of the subduction zone, we have to consider a source in a medium of low rigidity modulus; consequently, for a given seismic moment, the source dimensions will be decreased while the slip distribution increased, like a 'compact' source (Okal, Hébert, 2007). Inversely, a rapid 'snappy' earthquake that has a poor tsunami excitation power, will be characterized by higher rigidity modulus, and will produce weaker displacement and lesser source dimensions than 'normal' earthquake. References: CLément, J

  1. Early Warning System: a juridical notion to be built

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarelli, A.

    2007-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are becoming effective tools for real time mitigation of the harmful effects arising from widely different hazards, which range from famine to financial crisis, malicious attacks, industrial accidents, natural catastrophes, etc. Early warning of natural catastrophic events allows to implement both alert systems and real time prevention actions for the safety of people and goods exposed to the risk However the effective implementation of early warning methods is hindered by the lack of a specific juridical frame. Under a juridical point of view, in fact, EWS and in general all the activities of prevention need a careful regulation, mainly with regards to responsibility and possible compensation for damage caused by the implemented actions. A preventive alarm, in fact, has an active influence on infrastructures in control of public services which in turn will suffer suspensions or interruptions because of the early warning actions. From here it is necessary to possess accurate normative references related to the typology of structures or infrastructures upon which the activity of readiness acts; the progressive order of suspension of public services; the duration of these suspensions; the corporate bodies or administrations that are competent to assume such decisions; the actors responsible for the consequences of false alarm, missed or delayed alarms; the mechanisms of compensation for damage; the insurance systems; etc In the European Union EWS are often quoted as preventive methods of mitigation of the risk. Nevertheless, a juridical notion of EWS of general use is not available. In fact, EW is a concept that finds application in many different circles, each of which require specific adaptations, and may concern subjects for which the European Union doesn't have exclusive competence as may be the responsibility of the member states to assign the necessary regulations. In so far as the juridical arrangement of the EWS, this must be

  2. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, T

    2016-01-01

    was to investigate whether the aggregate weighted track and trigger system early warning score (EWS) can be used as a simple observational tool to identify patients at risk and predict mortality in a population of patients with acute stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients admitted with acute stroke...... at the Copenhagen University Hospital, Nordsjaellands Hospital, Denmark, from May to September 2012 were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study (n = 274). Vital signs were measured immediately after admission and consistently during the hospitalization period. Based on the vital signs, a single composite EWS...... the EWS at admission (AUROC 0.856; 95% CI 0.760-0.951; P-value score is a simple and valid...

  3. Multicriteria Early Warning System of Enterprises against the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Korol

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.  

  4. An Imbalanced Learning based MDR-TB Early Warning System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sheng; Tang, Bo; He, Haibo

    2016-07-01

    As a man-made disease, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is mainly caused by improper treatment programs and poor patient supervision, most of which could be prevented. According to the daily treatment and inspection records of tuberculosis (TB) cases, this study focuses on establishing a warning system which could early evaluate the risk of TB patients converting to MDR-TB using machine learning methods. Different imbalanced sampling strategies and classification methods were compared due to the disparity between the number of TB cases and MDR-TB cases in historical data. The final results show that the relative optimal predictions results can be obtained by adopting CART-USBagg classification model in the first 90 days of half of a standardized treatment process.

  5. Submarine Cables for Ocean/Climate Monitoring and Disaster Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bueti, Cristina; Barnes, Chris; Meldrum, David

    2013-04-01

    A joint initiative between International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO is examining novel uses for submarine telecommunication cables. The initiative addresses two main issues: the need for sustained climate-quality data from the sparsely observed deep oceans, and the desire to increase the reliability and integrity of the global tsunami warning networks. In the latter case, a significant proportion of the network suffers from failure and vandalism of the sea-surface telemetry buoys that relay the tsunami signals from the sea-bed sensor package: incorporating the sensors within a submarine cable repeater is an obvious way of increasing system reliability. At the present time, plans are well advanced to launch a pilot project with the active involvement of cable industry players.

  6. Clairvoyance vs. common sense: therapist's duty to warn and protect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonkin, D J

    1986-01-01

    This article addresses the issue of a therapist's duty to warn and protect victims of domestic violence. In three different cases, California courts have found therapists liable for violent acts perpetrated by clients in their care. Based on the landmark Tarasoff case that mandated the therapist to report threats made by their clients regarding a specific victim, the courts have now extended the therapist's duty to include the reporting of those clients they assess as dangerous but who have not made specific threats, as well as the protection of unintended victims of violence, such as children. Therapists are concerned that the courts are expecting them to be clairvoyant and that psychologists may not be able to predict dangerousness. This article will discuss these concerns in light of the current state of the art regarding the prediction of dangerousness and its relationship to domestic violence. The author suggests specific clinical interventions for victims and perpetrators of domestic violence.

  7. Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sättele

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Early warning systems (EWS are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWS is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWS and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWS is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWS. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

  8. Geological hazards: from early warning systems to public health toolkits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samarasundera, Edgar; Hansell, Anna; Leibovici, Didier; Horwell, Claire J; Anand, Suchith; Oppenheimer, Clive

    2014-11-01

    Extreme geological events, such as earthquakes, are a significant global concern and sometimes their consequences can be devastating. Geographic information plays a critical role in health protection regarding hazards, and there are a range of initiatives using geographic information to communicate risk as well as to support early warning systems operated by geologists. Nevertheless we consider there to remain shortfalls in translating information on extreme geological events into health protection tools, and suggest that social scientists have an important role to play in aiding the development of a new generation of toolkits aimed at public health practitioners. This viewpoint piece reviews the state of the art in this domain and proposes potential contributions different stakeholder groups, including social scientists, could bring to the development of new toolkits.

  9. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bednarczyk Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which

  10. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m , we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m , identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m , then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m . For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the

  11. Some new pre-warning criteria for creep slope failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HACK; Robert

    2011-01-01

    The forecasting of the failure time of a slope remains a worldwide problem because of many different possibilities of geological conditions in combination with many varying external factors such as climate and vegetation,and not well-defined or unknown time effects in deformation and failure models.The aim of this paper is to suggest a new method to carry out the phase division and to explore tangential angular features of the displacement-time curve of creep slopes as well as the acceleration characteristics in the process of slope deformation and the pre-warning criteria for critical failure.An imminent failure is pro-ceeded with usually three basic deformation phases,namely primary creep("decelerated") ,secondary creep("steadystate") and tertiary creep("accelerated") .Mostly,only during the accelerated phase the imminence of a possible slope failure is rec-ognized.The analysis of displacement data from a series of landslides allowed to recognize different evolutionary patterns of displacement.A quantitative approach was proposed to describe the tangential angle of the displacement-time curve and a new criterion based on the angle was put forward to divide the accelerated phase into three sub-phases:initial acceleration,medium acceleration,and the critical failure.A pre-warning criterion for critical failure is also proposed consequently. Changes of acceleration showed completely different characteristics from those of cumulative displacement and displacement in the process of slope deformation.The values of acceleration usually oscillate around 0 prior to the critical failure phase,whereas the acceleration increases abruptly when the deformation moves into the critical failure phase.This allows,therefore,for a method to forecast the time of the failure.So it is possible to define different alert acceleration threshold values to be used for emergency management.

  12. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarczyk, Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

  13. Early Warning of El Nino Impacts on Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Hillbruner, C.; Budde, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Before and during the El Niño of 2015-2016, regular and frequent application of climate monitoring and seasonal forecasts enabled early warning of food insecurity in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. As it happened, drought associated with the quasi-El Niño of 2014 had already adversely impacted harvests in Central America, Haiti, and Southern Africa, so the effects of the El Niño of 2015-2016 were especially hard-hitting and particularly devastating to crop conditions and food security. In the case of Ethiopia, 2014 conditions were normal but there were record rainfall deficits in 2015, with consequent crop failure, inadequate forage, and sharply curtailed water availability. Combining such agro-climatological information with knowledge of household economies, livelihood systems, markets & trade, and health & nutrition, FEWS NET constructed scenarios of food insecurity eight months into the future, with monthly updates. These scenarios informed assistance programming by USAID and partners. Overall, FEWS NET estimates that at least 18 million people will be severely food insecure during 2015/16 as a direct result of the impact of El Nino on rainfall. However, in Ethiopia, the contrast with the 1982-1983 El Niño is dramatic; though the two events were climatically similar, the human impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño are much less, thanks not only to well-functioning early warning systems and large scale emergency response, but also improved social safety nets and lack of ongoing armed conflict. In southern Africa, El Nino resulted in extensive failed crops, with some areas of South Africa and Zimbabwe having insufficient rain to plant crops. Remote sensing products provided relevant information to depict the severity of rainfall and vegetation deficits. Likewise, in Central America and the Caribbean (Hispaniola), rainfall deficits were portrayed in the perspective of 30+ years of data.

  14. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.

    2016-12-01

    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  15. Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the U.S. for Warn Early Warning System for Forest Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

    2012-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).

  16. Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

    2017-04-01

    In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

  17. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depp, Colin; Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-09-07

    Recognition and timely action around "warning signs" of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations.

  18. Ten years after the FDA black box warning for antidepressant drugs: a critical narrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Martínez-Aguayo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Background The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA has warned about the increased suicidality risk associated with the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI and venlafaxine in children and adolescents. Objectives To critically appraise the available evidence supporting the FDA Black box warning concerning to the use of antidepressants in child and adolescents. Methods A critical review of articles in Medline/PubMed and SciELO databases regarding the FDA Black box warning for antidepressants, and the impact of FDA warnings on antidepressant prescriptions and suicide rates. Results The warning was based on surveys that did not report either cases of suicide nor a significant difference supporting an increased suicidality rate. The concept was defined in an ambiguous way and there is currently more available evidence to support such definition. The use of SSRI and venlafaxine has been associated to lower suicidality rates, but the prescription fall due to the warning increased suicide rates. Discussion Suicidality is an inherent feature of depressive disorders so it would be desirable to consider how much of the phenomenon may be attributed to antidepressants per se. It would be appropriate to consider that suicide rates might increase also as a consequence of the warning.

  19. APPLICATION OF FUZZY OPTIMIZATION MODEL IN ECOLOGICAL SECURITY PRE-WARNING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Kai-ya; HU Shu-heng; SUN Shi-qun

    2005-01-01

    Ecological security is a vital problem that people all over the world today have to face and solve, and the situation of ecological security is getting more and more severe and has begun to impede heavily the sustainable development of social economy. Ecological environment pre-warning has become a hotspot for the modern environment science. This paper introduces the theories of ecological security pre-warning and tries to constitute a pre-warning model of ecological security. In terms of pressure-state-response model, the pre-warning guide line of ecological security is constructed while the pre-warning degree judging model of ecological security is established based on fuzzy optimization. As a case, the model is used to assess the present condition pre-warning of the ecological security of Anhui Province. The result is in correspondence with the real condition: the ecological security situations of 8 cities are dangerous and 9 cities are secure. The result shows that this model is scientific and effective for regional ecological security pre-warning.

  20. Cable Overheating Risk Warning Method Based on Impedance Parameter Estimation in Distribution Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao

    2017-05-01

    Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.

  1. Alcohol Warnings and Moderate Drinking Patterns among Italian University Students: An Exploratory Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annunziata, Azzurra; Vecchio, Riccardo; Mariani, Angela

    2017-06-17

    The introduction of health warnings on labels to correct externalities associated with alcohol consumption is heavily debated and has been explored from different perspectives. The current paper aims to analyse the interest and attitudes of Italian university students regarding health warnings on alcoholic beverages and to verify the existence of segments that differ in terms of attitudes towards such warnings. Our results show that young consumers consider health warnings quite important, although the degree of perceived utility differs in relation to the type of warning. Cluster analysis shows the existence of three groups of young consumers with different degrees of attention and perceived utility of warnings on alcoholic beverages, but also in relation to drinking behaviour and awareness of social and health risks related to alcohol consumption. In brief, Italian young adults with moderate consumption behaviour view label warnings positively, while this attitude is weaker among younger adults and those with riskier consumption behaviours. Our findings, albeit limited and based on stated and not revealed data, support the need for appropriate tools to improve the availability of information among young adults on the risks of excessive alcohol consumption and increased awareness of the importance of moderate drinking.

  2. Viewing alcohol warning advertising reduces urges to drink in young adults: an online experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stautz, Kaidy; Marteau, Theresa M

    2016-07-08

    Tobacco counter-advertising is effective at promoting smoking cessation. Few studies have evaluated the impact of alcohol warning advertising on alcohol consumption and possible mechanisms of effect. This pilot study aimed to assess whether alcohol warning advertising is effective in reducing urges to drink alcohol, if emotional responses to advertising explain any such effect or perceived effectiveness, and whether effects differ among heavier drinkers. One hundred fifty-two young adult (aged 18-25) alcohol users completed an online experiment in which they were randomly assigned to view one of three sets of six advertisements: (i) alcohol warning; (ii) alcohol promoting; or (iii) advertisements for non-alcohol products. Urges to drink alcohol were self-reported post-exposure. Affective responses (pleasure and arousal) to each advertisement and perceived effectiveness of each advertisement were recorded. Typical level of alcohol consumption was measured as a potential effect modifier. Participants exposed to alcohol warning advertisements reported significantly lower urges to drink alcohol than those who viewed either alcohol promoting or non-alcohol advertisements. This effect was fully mediated by negative affective responses (displeasure) to the alcohol warning advertisements. Perceived effectiveness of alcohol warning advertisements was associated with high arousal responses. Impact of the advertisements was unaffected by typical level of alcohol consumption, although the study was not powered to detect anything other than large effects. In line with findings from the tobacco literature, alcohol warning advertisements that elicit negative affect reduce urges to drink alcohol. Their impact upon actual consumption awaits investigation.

  3. Cigarette packaging and health warnings: the impact of plain packaging and message framing on young smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, Darren; Niaura, Raymond S; Evans, W Douglas; Hammond, David; Luta, George; Tercyak, Kenneth P

    2015-03-01

    This study examined the impact of pictorial cigarette-warning labels, warning-label message framing and plain cigarette packaging, on young adult smokers' motivation to quit. Smokers aged 18-30 years (n=740) from a consumer research panel were randomised to one of four experimental conditions where they viewed online images of four cigarette packs with warnings about lung disease, cancer, stroke/heart disease and death, respectively. Packs differed across conditions by warning-message framing (gain vs loss) and packaging (branded vs plain). Measures captured demographics, smoking behaviour, covariates and motivation to quit in response to cigarette packs. Pictorial warnings about lung disease and cancer generated the strongest motivation to quit across conditions. Adjusting for pretest motivation and covariates, a message framing by packaging interaction revealed gain-framed warnings on plain packs generated greater motivation to quit for lung disease, cancer and mortality warnings (ppackaging regulations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  4. A visual warning system to reduce struck-by or pinning accidents involving mobile mining equipment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammarco, J; Gallagher, S; Mayton, A; Srednicki, J

    2012-11-01

    This paper describes an experiment to examine whether a visual warning system can improve detection of moving machine hazards that could result in struck-by or pinning accidents. Thirty-six participants, twelve each in one of three age groups, participated in the study. A visual warning system capable of providing four different modes of warning was installed on a continuous mining machine that is used to mine coal. The speed of detecting various machine movements was recorded with and without the visual warning system. The average speed of detection for forward and reverse machine movements was reduced by 75% when using the flashing mode of the visual warning system. This translated to 0.485 m of machine travel for the fast speed condition of 19.8 m/min, which is significant in the context of the confined spaces of a mine. There were no statistically significant differences among age groups in the ability to detect machine movements for the visual warning modes in this study. The visual warning system shows promise as a safety intervention for reducing struck-by or pinning accidents involving continuous mining machines. The methods and results of this study could be applied to other moving machinery used in mining or other industries where moving machinery poses struck-by or pinning hazards.

  5. Alcohol Warnings and Moderate Drinking Patterns among Italian University Students: An Exploratory Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azzurra Annunziata

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of health warnings on labels to correct externalities associated with alcohol consumption is heavily debated and has been explored from different perspectives. The current paper aims to analyse the interest and attitudes of Italian university students regarding health warnings on alcoholic beverages and to verify the existence of segments that differ in terms of attitudes towards such warnings. Our results show that young consumers consider health warnings quite important, although the degree of perceived utility differs in relation to the type of warning. Cluster analysis shows the existence of three groups of young consumers with different degrees of attention and perceived utility of warnings on alcoholic beverages, but also in relation to drinking behaviour and awareness of social and health risks related to alcohol consumption. In brief, Italian young adults with moderate consumption behaviour view label warnings positively, while this attitude is weaker among younger adults and those with riskier consumption behaviours. Our findings, albeit limited and based on stated and not revealed data, support the need for appropriate tools to improve the availability of information among young adults on the risks of excessive alcohol consumption and increased awareness of the importance of moderate drinking.

  6. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-01-01

    Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

  7. Earthquake Early Warning using a Seismogeodetic Approach: An operational plan for Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B. W.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.; Schmidt, D. A.; Melbourne, T. I.; Scrivner, C. W.; Santillan, V. M.; Szeliga, W. M.; Minson, S. E.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2013-12-01

    We present an operational plan for implementing combined seismic and geodetic time series in an earthquake early warning system for Cascadia. The Cascadian subduction zone presents one of the greatest risks for a megaquake in the continental United States. Ascertaining the full magnitude and extent of large earthquakes is problematic for earthquake early warning systems due to instability when double integrating strong-motion records to ground displacement. This problem can be mitigated by augmenting earthquake early warning systems with real-time GPS data, allowing for the progression and spatial extent of large earthquakes to be better resolved due to GPS's ability to measure both dynamic and permanent displacements. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) at the University of Washington is implementing an integrated seismogeodetic approach to earthquake early warning. Regional GPS data are provided by the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (PANGA) at Central Washington University. Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are sent from PANGA to the PNSN through JSON formatted streams and processed with a Python-based quality control (QC) module. The QC module also ingest accelerations from PNSN seismic stations through the Earthworm seismic acquisition and processing system for the purpose of detecting outliers and Kalman filtering when collocated instruments exist. The QC module outputs time aligned and cleaned displacement waveforms to ActiveMQ, an XML-based messaging broker that is currently used in seismic early warning architecture. Earthquake characterization modules read displacement information from ActiveMQ when triggered by warnings from ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm. Peak ground displacement and P-wave scaling relationships from Kalman filtered waveforms provide initial magnitude estimates. Additional modules perform more complex source modeling such as centroid moment tensors and slip inversions that characterize the full size and

  8. Motivation to quit smoking and acceptability of shocking warnings on cigarette packages in Lebanon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layoun, Nelly; Salameh, Pascal; Waked, Mirna; Aoun Bacha, Z; Zeenny, Rony M; El Hitti, Eric; Godin, Isabelle; Dramaix, Michèle

    2017-01-01

    Health warnings on tobacco packages have been considered an essential pillar in filling the gap of knowledge and communicating the health risks of tobacco use to consumers. Our primary objective was to report the perception of smokers on the textual health warnings already appearing on tobacco packages in Lebanon versus shocking pictures about the health-related smoking consequences and to evaluate their impact on smoking behaviors and motivation. A pilot cross-sectional study was undertaken between 2013 and 2015 in five hospitals in Lebanon. Participants answered a questionnaire inquiring about sociodemographic characteristics, chronic respiratory symptoms, smoking behavior and motivation to quit smoking. Only-text warning versus shocking pictures was shown to the smokers during the interview. Exactly 66% of the participants reported that they thought shocking pictorial warnings would hypothetically be more effective tools to reduce/quit tobacco consumption compared to only textual warnings. Also, 31.9% of the smokers who were motivated to stop smoking reported that they actually had stopped smoking for at least 1 month secondary to the textual warnings effects. A higher motivation to quit cigarette smoking was seen among the following groups of smokers: males (odds ratio [OR] =1.8, P=0.02), who had stopped smoking for at least 1 month during the last year due to textual warning (OR =2.79, Pshocking images on the pack (OR =1.95, P=0.004). Low-dependent smokers and highly motivated to quit smokers appeared to be more hypothetically susceptible to shocking pictorial warnings. Motivation to quit was associated with sensitivity to warnings, but not with the presence of all chronic respiratory symptoms.

  9. Motivation to quit smoking and acceptability of shocking warnings on cigarette packages in Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layoun, Nelly; Salameh, Pascal; Waked, Mirna; Aoun Bacha, Z; Zeenny, Rony M; El Hitti, Eric; Godin, Isabelle; Dramaix, Michèle

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Health warnings on tobacco packages have been considered an essential pillar in filling the gap of knowledge and communicating the health risks of tobacco use to consumers. Our primary objective was to report the perception of smokers on the textual health warnings already appearing on tobacco packages in Lebanon versus shocking pictures about the health-related smoking consequences and to evaluate their impact on smoking behaviors and motivation. Methods A pilot cross-sectional study was undertaken between 2013 and 2015 in five hospitals in Lebanon. Participants answered a questionnaire inquiring about sociodemographic characteristics, chronic respiratory symptoms, smoking behavior and motivation to quit smoking. Only-text warning versus shocking pictures was shown to the smokers during the interview. Results Exactly 66% of the participants reported that they thought shocking pictorial warnings would hypothetically be more effective tools to reduce/quit tobacco consumption compared to only textual warnings. Also, 31.9% of the smokers who were motivated to stop smoking reported that they actually had stopped smoking for at least 1 month secondary to the textual warnings effects. A higher motivation to quit cigarette smoking was seen among the following groups of smokers: males (odds ratio [OR] =1.8, P=0.02), who had stopped smoking for at least 1 month during the last year due to textual warning (OR =2.79, Pmotivated to quit smokers appeared to be more hypothetically susceptible to shocking pictorial warnings. Motivation to quit was associated with sensitivity to warnings, but not with the presence of all chronic respiratory symptoms.

  10. Medical Device Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    A medical device is any product used to diagnose, cure, or treat a condition, or to prevent disease. They ... may need one in a hospital. To use medical devices safely Know how your device works. Keep ...

  11. TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC: Brief Historical Review of its Establishment and Institutional Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The year 2015 marks the 50th anniversary of operations of the International Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Ocean. The present report describes briefly the establishment of the rudimentary early tsunami warning system in 1948 by the USA after the disastrous tsunami of April 1, 1946, generated by a great earthquake in the Aleutian Islands, struck without warning the Hawaiian Islands and other parts of the Pacific. Also reviewed are the progressive improvements made to the U.S. warning system, following the destructive tsunamis of 1952, 1957, 1960 and 1964, and of the early, support efforts undertaken in the U.S.A., initially by the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics of the University of Hawaii, by the U. S. Coast and Geodetic Survey and by the Honolulu Observatory - later renamed Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC. Following the 1964 Alaska tsunami, there was increased international cooperation, which resulted in a better understanding of the tsunami phenomenon and the development of a new field of Science of Tsunami Hazards in support of the early U.S. Warning System. Continuous supporting international cooperative efforts after 1965, resulted in the integration of the U.S. early warning system with other early regional tsunami warning systems of other nations to become the International Tsunami Warning System under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC of UNESCO for the purpose of mitigating the disaster’s impact in the Pacific, but later expanded to include other regions. Briefly reviewed in this paper is the subsequent institutional support of the International Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific, by the International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC, the International Tsunami Coordination Group (ICG/ITS, the Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (ATWC, the Joint Tsunami Research Effort (JTRE, NOAA’s National Geophysical Center (NGDC, the Pacific Marine Laboratory (PMEL of NOAA and of the later

  12. Research on Technology Early-Warning System Based on Dynamic Information Monitoring

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-feng; ZHU Dong-hua; LIU Song; LIU Jia

    2009-01-01

    Relying on the advanced information technologies,such as information monitoring,data mining,natural language processing etc.,the dynamic technology early-warning system is constructed.The system consists of technology information automatic retrieval,technology information monitoring,technology threat evaluation,and crisis response and management subsystem,which implements uninterrupted dynamic monitoring,trace and crisis early-warning to the specific technology.Empirical study testifies that the system improves the accuracy,timeliness and reliability of technology early-warning.

  13. The Application of Big data Mining in Risk Warning for Food Safety

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yajie; WANG; Bing; YANG; Yan; LUO; Jinlin; HE; Hong; TAN

    2015-01-01

    Comprehensive evaluation and warning is very important and difficult in food safety. This paper mainly focuses on introducing the application of using big data mining in food safety warning field. At first,we introduce the concept of big data miming and three big data methods. At the same time,we discuss the application of the three big data miming methods in food safety areas. Then we compare these big data miming methods,and propose how to apply Back Propagation Neural Network in food safety risk warning.

  14. Study on the early warning mechanism for the security of blast furnace hearths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hong-bo; Huo, Shou-feng; Cheng, Shu-sen

    2013-04-01

    The campaign life of blast furnace (BF) hearths has become the limiting factor for safety and high efficiency production of modern BFs. However, the early warning mechanism of hearth security has not been clear. In this article, based on heat transfer calculations, heat flux and erosion monitoring, the features of heat flux and erosion were analyzed and compared among different types of hearths. The primary detecting elements, mathematical models, evaluating standards, and warning methods were discussed. A novel early warning mechanism with the three-level quantificational standards was proposed for BF hearth security.

  15. Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

    2017-06-01

    An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post

  16. A new multi-sensor approach to simulation assisted tsunami early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, J.; Androsov, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Harig, S.; Klaschka, F.; Mentrup, L.

    2010-06-01

    A new tsunami forecasting method for near-field tsunami warning is presented. This method is applied in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, as part of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Center in Jakarta, Indonesia. The method employs a rigorous approach to minimize uncertainty in the assessment of tsunami hazard in the near-field. Multiple independent sensors are evaluated simultaneously in order to achieve an accurate estimation of coastal arrival times and wave heights within very short time after a submarine earthquake event. The method is validated employing a synthetic (simulated) tsunami event, and in hindcasting the minor tsunami following the Padang 30 September 2009 earthquake.

  17. Implantable electronic medical devices

    CERN Document Server

    Fitzpatrick, Dennis

    2014-01-01

    Implantable Electronic Medical Devices provides a thorough review of the application of implantable devices, illustrating the techniques currently being used together with overviews of the latest commercially available medical devices. This book provides an overview of the design of medical devices and is a reference on existing medical devices. The book groups devices with similar functionality into distinct chapters, looking at the latest design ideas and techniques in each area, including retinal implants, glucose biosensors, cochlear implants, pacemakers, electrical stimulation t

  18. Ultraefficient Themoelectric Devices Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Thermoelectric (TE) devices already found a wide range of commercial, military and aerospace applications. However, at present commercially available TE devices...

  19. Snow drift: acoustic sensors for avalanche warning and research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehning, M.; Naaim, F.; Naaim, M.; Brabec, B.; Doorschot, J.; Durand, Y.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Michaux, J.-L.; Zimmerli, M.

    Based on wind tunnel measurements at the CSTB (Jules Verne) facility in Nantes and based on field observations at the SLF experimental site Versuchsfeld Weissfluhjoch, two acoustic wind drift sensors are evaluated against different mechanical snow traps and one optical snow particle counter. The focus of the work is the suitability of the acoustic sensors for applications such as avalanche warning and research. Although the acoustic sensors have not yet reached the accuracy required for typical research applications, they can, however, be useful for snow drift monitoring to help avalanche forecasters. The main problem of the acoustic sensors is a difficult calibration that has to take into account the variable snow properties. Further difficulties arise from snow fall and high wind speeds. However, the sensor is robust and can be operated remotely under harsh conditions. It is emphasized that due to the lack of an accurate reference method for snow drift measurements, all sensors play a role in improving and evaluating snow drift models. Finally, current operational snow drift models and snow drift sensors are compared with respect to their usefulness as an aid for avalanche warning. While drift sensors always make a point measurement, the models are able to give a more representative drift index that is valid for a larger area. Therefore, models have the potential to replace difficult observations such as snow drift in operational applications. Current models on snow drift are either only applicable in flat terrain, are still too complex for an operational application (Lehning et al., 2000b), or offer only limited information on snow drift, such as the SNOWPACK drift index (Lehning et al., 2000a). On the other hand, snow drift is also difficult to measure. While mechanical traps (Mellor 1960; Budd et al., 1966) are probably still the best reference, they require more or less continuous manual operation and are thus not suitable for remote locations or long

  20. Snow drift: acoustic sensors for avalanche warning and research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Lehning

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on wind tunnel measurements at the CSTB (Jules Verne facility in Nantes and based on field observations at the SLF experimental site Versuchsfeld Weissfluhjoch, two acoustic wind drift sensors are evaluated against different mechanical snow traps and one optical snow particle counter. The focus of the work is the suitability of the acoustic sensors for applications such as avalanche warning and research. Although the acoustic sensors have not yet reached the accuracy required for typical research applications, they can, however, be useful for snow drift monitoring to help avalanche forecasters. The main problem of the acoustic sensors is a difficult calibration that has to take into account the variable snow properties. Further difficulties arise from snow fall and high wind speeds. However, the sensor is robust and can be operated remotely under harsh conditions. It is emphasized that due to the lack of an accurate reference method for snow drift measurements, all sensors play a role in improving and evaluating snow drift models. Finally, current operational snow drift models and snow drift sensors are compared with respect to their usefulness as an aid for avalanche warning. While drift sensors always make a point measurement, the models are able to give a more representative drift index that is valid for a larger area. Therefore, models have the potential to replace difficult observations such as snow drift in operational applications. Current models on snow drift are either only applicable in flat terrain, are still too complex for an operational application (Lehning et al., 2000b, or offer only limited information on snow drift, such as the SNOWPACK drift index (Lehning et al., 2000a. On the other hand, snow drift is also difficult to measure. While mechanical traps (Mellor 1960; Budd et al., 1966 are probably still the best reference, they require more or less continuous manual operation and are thus not suitable for remote locations

  1. A rainfall-based warning model for shallow landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yi-Chao; Wang, Ji-Shang; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Yin, Hsiao-Yuan; Lo, Wen-Chun

    2016-04-01

    boundaries of the probability range must be defined. The lower critical line (LRTI10) is defined as 10% of rainfall values for the historical rainfall events no matter triggering or not. An upper critical line (LRTI90) is defined as 90 % of rainfall values for all rainfall events exceeded the lower critical line. Further, the various probability of shallow landslide occurrence is analyzed between these two boundaries. Two assessing indexes are used for determining appropriate probability rainfall threshold which are the disaster-capture ratio and false-alarm ratio. The result shows that LRTI70 is preferred adopted as the warning threshold of shallow landslides in this study because of the higher disaster-capture ratio (95%) and lower false-alarm ratio (13%). By the proposed approach, the warning threshold can be determined more reliability and objectivity than the conventional methods (e.g. minimum rainfall threshold or empirical rainfall threshold). The application of the Gaoping River watershed in southern Taiwan was proved that the proposed method can effectively provide early warning before landslides occurred.

  2. Public Health Surveillance in Pilot Drinking Water Contamination Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangel, Chrissy; Allgeier, Steven C.; Gibbons, Darcy; Haas, Adam

    2013-01-01

    Objective This paper describes the lessons learned from operation and maintenance of the public health surveillance (PHS) component of five pilot city drinking water contamination warning systems (CWS) including: Cincinnati, New York, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Dallas. Introduction The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designed a program to pilot multi-component contamination warning systems (CWSs), known as the “Water Security initiative (WSi).” The Cincinnati pilot has been fully operational since January 2008, and an additional four pilot utilities will have their own, custom CWSs by the end of 2012. A workshop amongst the pilot cities was conducted in May 2012 to discuss lessons learned from the design, implementation, operation, maintenance, and evaluation of each city’s PHS component. Methods When evaluating potential surveillance tools to integrate into a drinking water contamination warning system, it is important to consider design decisions, dual use applications/considerations, and the unique capabilities of each tool. The pilot cities integrated unique surveillance tools, which included a combination of automated event detection tools and communication and coordination procedures into their respective PHS components. The five pilots performed a thorough, technical evaluation of each component of their CWS, including PHS. Results Four key lessons learned were identified from implementation of the PHS component in the five pilot cities. First, improved communication and coordination between public health and water utilities was emphasized as an essential goal even if it were not feasible to implement automated surveillance systems. The WSi pilot project has helped to strengthen this communication pathway through the process of collaborating to develop the component, and through the need to investigate PHS alerts. Second, the approximate location of specific cases associated with PHS alerts was found to be an essential feature that

  3. International importance of robust breast device registries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, Rodney D; Barker, Shane; Carroll, Sean M; Evans, Gregory R D; von Fritschen, Uwe; Hoflehner, Helmut; Le Louarn, Claude; Lumenta, David B; Mathijssen, Irene M J; McNeil, John; Mulgrew, Stephen; Mureau, Marc A M; Perks, Graeme; Rakhorst, Hinne; Randquist, Charles; Topaz, Moris; Verheyden, Charles; de Waal, John

    2015-02-01

    Breast implants are high-risk devices that have been at the epicenter of much debate and controversy. In light of the Poly Implant Prothèse crisis, data registries among 11 national societies around the world are cooperatively calling for the urgent need to establish robust national clinical quality registries based on international best practice within a framework of international collaboration. A survey was conducted on the historic and current status of national breast device registries. Eleven countries participated in the study, illustrating different data collection systems and registries around the world. Data collection was designed to illustrate the capabilities of current national registries, with particular focus on capture rate and outcome reporting mechanisms. A study of national breast implant registries revealed that less than half of the participating countries had operational registries and that none of these had adequately high data capture to enable reliable outcome analysis. The study revealed that the two most common problems that discouraged participation are the complexity of data sets and the opt-in consent model. Recent implant crises have highlighted the need for robust registries. This article argues the importance of securing at least 90 percent data capture, which is achievable through the opt-out consent model. Since adopting this model, the Australian Breast Device Registry has increased data capture from 4 percent to over 97 percent. Simultaneously, it is important to foster international collaboration from the outset to avoid duplication of efforts and enable the development of effective international early warning systems.

  4. Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for famine early warning (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C.; Budde, M. E.; Lietzow, R.; Senay, G. B.; Smith, R.; Pedreros, D.; Rowland, J.; Artan, G. A.; Husak, G. J.; Michaelsen, J.; Adoum, A.; Galu, G.; Magadzire, T.; Rodriguez, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) makes quantitative estimates of food insecure populations, and identifies the places and periods during which action must be taken to assist them. Subsistence agriculture and pastoralism are the predominant livelihood systems being monitored, and they are especially drought-sensitive. At the same time, conventional climate observation networks in developing countries are often sparse and late in reporting. Consequently, remote sensing has played a significant role since FEWS NET began in 1985. Initially there was heavy reliance on vegetation index imagery from AVHRR to identify anomalies in landscape greenness indicative of drought. In the latter part of the 1990s, satellite rainfall estimates added a second, independent basis for identification of drought. They are used to force crop water balance models for the principal rainfed staple crops in twenty FEWS NET countries. Such models reveal seasonal moisture deficits associated with yield reduction on a spatially continuous basis. In 2002, irrigated crops in southwest Asia became a concern, and prompted the implementation of a gridded energy balance model to simulate the seasonal mountain snow pack, the main source of irrigation water. MODIS land surface temperature data are also applied in these areas to directly estimate actual seasonal evapotranspiration on the irrigated lands. The approach reveals situations of reduced irrigation water supply and crop production due to drought. The availability of MODIS data after 2000 also brought renewed interest in vegetation index imagery. MODIS NDVI data have proven to be of high quality, thanks to significant spectral and spatial resolution improvements over AVHRR. They are vital to producing rapid harvest assessments for drought-impacted countries in Africa and Asia. The global food crisis that emerged in 2008 has led to expansion of FEWS NET monitoring to over 50 additional countries. Unlike previous practice, these

  5. Benefits of Earthquake Early Warning to Large Municipalities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Featherstone, J.

    2013-12-01

    The City of Los Angeles has been involved in the testing of the Cal Tech Shake Alert, Earthquake Early Warning (EQEW) system, since February 2012. This system accesses a network of seismic monitors installed throughout California. The system analyzes and processes seismic information, and transmits a warning (audible and visual) when an earthquake occurs. In late 2011, the City of Los Angeles Emergency Management Department (EMD) was approached by Cal Tech regarding EQEW, and immediately recognized the value of the system. Simultaneously, EMD was in the process of finalizing a report by a multi-discipline team that visited Japan in December 2011, which spoke to the effectiveness of EQEW for the March 11, 2011 earthquake that struck that country. Information collected by the team confirmed that the EQEW systems proved to be very effective in alerting the population of the impending earthquake. The EQEW in Japan is also tied to mechanical safeguards, such as the stopping of high-speed trains. For a city the size and complexity of Los Angeles, the implementation of a reliable EQEW system will save lives, reduce loss, ensure effective and rapid emergency response, and will greatly enhance the ability of the region to recovery from a damaging earthquake. The current Shake Alert system is being tested at several governmental organizations and private businesses in the region. EMD, in cooperation with Cal Tech, identified several locations internal to the City where the system would have an immediate benefit. These include the staff offices within EMD, the Los Angeles Police Department's Real Time Analysis and Critical Response Division (24 hour crime center), and the Los Angeles Fire Department's Metropolitan Fire Communications (911 Dispatch). All three of these agencies routinely manage the collaboration and coordination of citywide emergency information and response during times of crisis. Having these three key public safety offices connected and included in the

  6. Progress of KOERI Tsunami Warning System for the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Yilmazer, Mehmet; Cokacar, Tulay; Comoglu, Mustafa; Pinar, Ali; Kekovali, Kivanc

    2016-04-01

    This presentation provides a progress report on the activities of the Bogazici University / Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute - Regional Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring Center (KOERI-RETMC) which provides services as a Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) of ICG/NEAMTWS in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Seas since 1 July 2012. KOERI continues to operate 178 BB and 97 strong motion and 6 short period sensors and the regional coverage includes 77 stations from GFZ and additional 16 stations through bilateral agreements. One radar-type tide-gauge has been installed in Fethiye within the framework of "Inexpensive Device for Sea-Level Measurement" (IDSL) initiative offered as donation by the EC/JRC and planning is in progress for the possible installation of three more IDSLs in selected locations in the Aegean Sea coast of Turkey. The capabilities and the limitations of HF Radar technology for the purpose of tsunami detection in the Eastern Mediterranean has been identified and the maturity and the applicability of these systems for the possible use under the Tsunami Warning System has been determined. The development of the TsuComp as a user-friendly interface to be used in the assessment of tsunamigenic potential and as a single-point entry for message dissemination has been finalized. The work towards the creation of Tsunami Inundation Maps at the Tsunami Forecast Points in Turkey is near finalization. This work is partially funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839. The authors would like to thank EC/JRC and Mr. Alessandro Annunziato for their continuous support in the operational activities of RETMC and IDSL initiative.

  7. Integrating Low-Cost Mems Accelerometer Mini-Arrays (mama) in Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nof, R. N.; Chung, A. I.; Rademacher, H.; Allen, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Current operational Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) acquire data with networks of single seismic stations, and compute source parameters assuming earthquakes to be point sources. For large events, the point-source assumption leads to an underestimation of magnitude, and the use of single stations leads to large uncertainties in the locations of events outside the network. We propose the use of mini-arrays to improve EEWS. Mini-arrays have the potential to: (a) estimate reliable hypocentral locations by beam forming (FK-analysis) techniques; (b) characterize the rupture dimensions and account for finite-source effects, leading to more reliable estimates for large magnitudes. Previously, the high price of multiple seismometers has made creating arrays cost-prohibitive. However, we propose setting up mini-arrays of a new seismometer based on low-cost (<$150), high-performance MEMS accelerometer around conventional seismic stations. The expected benefits of such an approach include decreasing alert-times, improving real-time shaking predictions and mitigating false alarms. We use low-resolution 14-bit Quake Catcher Network (QCN) data collected during Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (RAMP) in Christchurch, NZ following the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in September 2010. As the QCN network was so dense, we were able to use small sub-array of up to ten sensors spread along a maximum area of 1.7x2.2 km2 to demonstrate our approach and to solve for the BAZ of two events (Mw4.7 and Mw5.1) with less than ±10° error. We will also present the new 24-bit device details, benchmarks, and real-time measurements.

  8. NOAA/NWS Short Duration Severe Weather Warnings WMS/WFS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A prototype Web Map Service (WMS) displaying NOAA National Weather Service short duration weather warning polygons. The data are updated on five minute intervals....

  9. U.S. Medical Experts Issue Warning on Yellow Fever's Advance

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 164012.html U.S. Medical Experts Issue Warning on Yellow Fever's Advance Brazil outbreak has officials worried, and transmission ... another potential mosquito-borne health threat to Americans -- yellow fever. In an essay published Wednesday in the New ...

  10. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    M. Calvello; L. Piciullo

    2015-01-01

    The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps...

  11. Study of Enterprises Marketing Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Network Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Mei-hua; WANG Fu-dong; ZHANG Hong-hong

    2006-01-01

    For effectively early warning the marketing risk caused along with the varied environment, a BP neural network method was introduced on the basis of analyzing the shortcomings of the risk early warning method, and combined with the practical conditions of dairy enterprises, the index system caused by the marketing risk was also studied. The principal component method was used for screening the indexes, the grades and critical values of the marketing risk were determined. Through the configuration of BP network, node processing and error analysis, the early warning results of the marketing risk were obtained. The results indicate that BP neural network method can be effectively applied through the function approach in the marketing early warning with incomplete information and complex varied conditions.

  12. Snow White and the Seven Warnings: Threats to Authentic Evaluation (Assessment).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harman, Susan

    1992-01-01

    Identifies and analyzes seven threats to authentic evaluation, and predicts implications. Warns educators to beware of the term "standards"; norm-referencing; aggregation; credibility, comparability, and calibration; multiple measures; schemes that rule out varieties of excellence; and "untests." (SR)

  13. Ethical dilemmas related to predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phua, Kai-Lit; Hue, J W

    2013-01-01

    Scientists and policy makers issuing predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster are faced with two major challenges, that is, failure to warn and issuing a false alarm. The consequences of failure to warn can be serious for society overall, for example, significant economic losses, heavy infrastructure and environmental damage, large number of human casualties, and social disruption. Failure to warn can also have serious for specific individuals, for example, legal proceedings against disaster research scientists, as in the L'Aquila earthquake affair. The consequences of false alarms may be less serious. Nevertheless, false alarms may violate the principle of nonmaleficence (do no harm), affect individual autonomy (eg, mandatory evacuations), and may result in the "cry wolf" effect. Other ethical issues associated with natural disasters include the promotion of global justice through international predisaster technical assistance and postdisaster aid. Social justice within a particular country is promoted through greater postdisaster aid allocation to the less privileged.

  14. Evolution of an Early Illness Warning System to Monitor Frail Elders in Independent Living

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory L. Alexander

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of an early illness warning system used by an interdisciplinary team composed of clinicians and engineers in an independent living facility. The early illness warning system consists of algorithms which analyze resident activity patterns obtained from sensors embedded in residents' apartments. The engineers designed an automated reasoning system to generate clinically relevant alerts which are sent to clinicians when significant changes occur in the sensor data, for example declining activity levels. During January 2010 through July 2010, clinicians and engineers conducted weekly iterative review cycles of the early illness warning system to discuss concerns about the functionality of the warning system, to recommend solutions for the concerns, and to evaluate the implementation of the solutions. A total of 45 concerns were reviewed during this period. Iterative reviews resulted in greater efficiencies and satisfaction for clinician users who were monitoring elder activity patterns.

  15. 7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's | Alzheimer's disease | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of this page please turn Javascript on. Feature: Alzheimer's Disease 7 Warning Signs of Alzheimer's Past Issues / Fall 2010 Table of Contents The ... Suncoast Gerontology Center, University of South Florida. How Alzheimer's Changes the Brain The only definite way to ...

  16. Early warning for geo-hazards based on the weather condition in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chuanzheng LIU; Yanhui LIU; Mingsheng WEN; Can TANG; Tiefeng LI; Jianfa LIAN

    2006-01-01

    According to national early warning practice for geo-hazards from 2003 to 2005, it is systematically concluded that the basic characteristics of geo-hazards, early warning method and forecast result based on the geological maps of China in a scale 1∶6 000 000. With the contrast of different characters between sustained rainfall and typhoon rainfall inducing geo-hazards, the disaster reduction result and some problems are preliminarily analyzed. Some basic recognition is that early warning to geo-hazards is feasible, national scale forecast is only to call attention, but can't immediately be used to disaster reduction decision-making. And, the future direction is to build a united disaster reduction framework of early warning system including national, provincial and county levels based on weather factors in different scale of area.

  17. EPA, NASA, NOAA and USGS Creating Early Warning System to Detect Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    WASHINGTON- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that it is developing an early warning indicator system using historical and current satellite data to detect algal blooms. EPA researchers will develop a mobile app to inform water

  18. Method for warning of radiological and chemical substances using detection paints on a vehicle surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Joseph C [Tracy, CA

    2012-03-13

    A system for warning of corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances. The system comprises painting a surface with a paint or coating that includes an indicator material and monitoring the surface for indications of the corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances.

  19. Surface with two paint strips for detection and warning of chemical warfare and radiological agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Joseph C.

    2013-04-02

    A system for warning of corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances. The system comprises painting a surface with a paint or coating that includes an indicator material and monitoring the surface for indications of the corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances.

  20. ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING METHODS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF EARLY WARNING CONCEPT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Early warning system (EWS based on a reliable forecasting process has become a critical component of the management of large complex industrial projects in the globalized transnational environment. The purpose of this research is to critically analyze the forecasting methods from the point of view of early warning, choosing those useful for the construction of EWS. This research addresses complementary techniques, using Bayesian Networks, which addresses both uncertainties and causality in project planning and execution, with the goal of generating early warning signals for project managers. Even though Bayesian networks have been widely used in a range of decision-support applications, their application as early warning systems for project management is still new.

  1. Current National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, or Advisories for the United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center uses RSS feeds to disseminate all watches, warnings and advisories for the United States that are...

  2. Instant tsunami early warning based on real-time GPS – Tohoku 2011 case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hoechner

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Taking the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as an example, we demonstrate the ability of real-time GPS to provide qualified tsunami early warning within minutes. While in earlier studies we demonstrated the power of the so-called GPS shield concept based on synthetic data, we here present a complete processing chain starting from actual GPS raw data and fully simulate the situation as it would be in a warning center. The procedure includes processing of GPS observations with predicted high precision orbits, inversion for slip and computation of the tsunami propagation and coastal warning levels. We show that in case of the Tohoku earthquake, it would be feasible to provide accurate tsunami warning as soon as 3 min after the beginning of the earthquake.

  3. A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and

  4. Paint for detection of corrosion and warning of chemical and radiological attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Joseph C.

    2010-08-24

    A system for warning of corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances. The system comprises painting a surface with a paint or coating that includes an indicator material and monitoring the surface for indications of the corrosion, chemical, or radiological substances.

  5. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  6. Operational Forecasting and Warning systems for Coastal hazards in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Kwang-Soon; Kwon, Jae-Il; Kim, Jin-Ah; Heo, Ki-Young; Jun, Kicheon

    2017-04-01

    Coastal hazards caused by both Mother Nature and humans cost tremendous social, economic and environmental damages. To mitigate these damages many countries have been running the operational forecasting or warning systems. Since 2009 Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) has been developed by the leading of Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) in Korea and KOOS has been operated in 2012. KOOS is consists of several operational modules of numerical models and real-time observations and produces the basic forecasting variables such as winds, tides, waves, currents, temperature and salinity and so on. In practical application systems include storm surges, oil spills, and search and rescue prediction models. In particular, abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves) have occurred in the East coast of Korea peninsula during winter season owing to the local meteorological condition over the East Sea, causing property damages and the loss of human lives. In order to improve wave forecast accuracy even very local wave characteristics, numerical wave modeling system using SWAN is established with data assimilation module using 4D-EnKF and sensitivity test has been conducted. During the typhoon period for the prediction of sever waves and the decision making support system for evacuation of the ships, a high-resolution wave forecasting system has been established and calibrated.

  7. pSNOWPACK: a forecasting tool for avalanche warning services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bellaire

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Avalanche danger is often estimated based on snow cover stratigraphy and snow stability data. In Canada, single forecasting regions are very large (>50 000 km2 and snow cover data are often not available. To provide additional information on the snow cover and its seasonal evolution the Swiss snow cover model SNOWPACK was therefore coupled with a regional weather forecasting model GEM15. We assess the capability of this model chain (pSNOWPACK to forecast three key factors of snow cover instability at a single point: new snow amounts, surface hoar formation and crust formation. The output of GEM15 was compared to meteorological data from Mt. Fidelity, British Columbia, Canada, for five winters between 2005 and 2010. Forecasted precipitation amounts were generally over-estimated. The forecasted data were therefore filtered and used as input for the snow cover model. Comparison between the model output and manual observations showed that after pre-processing the input data the snow depth, new snow events and amounts were well modelled. Relevant critical layers, i.e. melt-freeze crusts and surface hoar layers were reproduced. Overall, the model chain pSNOWPACK shows promising potential as a forecasting tool for avalanche warning services in Canadian data sparse areas and could thus well be applied to similarly large regions elsewhere.

  8. Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Michoud

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Landslide early warning systems (EWSs have to be implemented in areas with large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements (e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable signal levels of deployed sensors before being established and specific issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23 monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual models.

  9. A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. V. Martina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

  10. Spatial early warning signals in a lake manipulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butitta, Vince L; Carpenter, Stephen R; Loken, Luke; Pace, Michael L; Stanley, Emily H.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid changes in state have been documented for many of Earth's ecosystems. Despite a growing toolbox of methods for detecting declining resilience or early warning indicators (EWIs) of ecosystem transitions, these methods have rarely been evaluated in whole-ecosystem trials using reference ecosystems. In this study, we experimentally tested EWIs of cyanobacteria blooms based on changes in the spatial structure of a lake. We induced a cyanobacteria bloom by adding nutrients to an experimental lake and mapped fine-resolution spatial patterning of cyanobacteria using a mobile sensor platform. Prior to the bloom, we detected theoretically predicted spatial EWIs based on variance and spatial autocorrelation, as well as a new index based on the extreme values. Changes in EWIs were not discernible in an unenriched reference lake. Despite the fluid environment of a lake where spatial heterogeneity driven by biological processes may be overwhelmed by physical mixing, spatial EWIs detected an approaching bloom suggesting the utility of spatial metrics for signaling ecological thresholds.

  11. Warning Model for Shallow Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lien-Kwei Chien

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the geophysical properties of the landslide-prone catchment of the Gaoping River in Taiwan were investigated using zones based on landslide history in conjunction with landslide analysis using a deterministic approach based on the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability model. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was selected as a simulation scenario to calibrate the combination of geophysical parameters in each zone before analyzing changes in the factor of safety (FS. Considering the amount of response time required for typhoons, suitable FS thresholds for landslide warnings are proposed for each town in the catchment area. Typhoon Fanapi of 2010 was used as a test scenario to verify the applicability of the FS as well as the efficacy of the cumulative rainfall thresholds derived in this study. Finally, the amount of response time provided by the FS thresholds in cases of yellow and red alerts was determined. All five of the landslide events reported by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby demonstrating its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of yellow and red alerts with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.

  12. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. A. Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Palaeo-records from China (Cheng et al., 2009; Wang et al., 2008, 2001 demonstrate the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesised that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them (Schewe et al., 2012. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China (Wang et al., 2008, 2001, spanning the penultimate glacial cycle, and in multiple model simulations derived from the data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. We detect critical slowing down prior to an abrupt monsoon shift during the penultimate deglaciation consistent with long-term orbital forcing. However, such signals are only detectable when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the dataset, raising the possibility that the alarm was missed and a similar forcing drove earlier EASM shifts.

  13. Reality Check Algorithm for Complex Sources in Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakus, G.; Heaton, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    In almost all currently operating earthquake early warning (EEW) systems, presently available seismic data are used to predict future shaking. In most cases, location and magnitude are estimated. We are developing an algorithm to test the goodness of that prediction in real time. We monitor envelopes of acceleration, velocity, and displacement; if they deviate significantly from the envelope predicted by Cua's envelope gmpe's then we declare an overfit (perhaps false alarm) or an underfit (possibly a larger event has just occurred). This algorithm is designed to provide a robust measure and to work as quickly as possible in real-time. We monitor the logarithm of the ratio between the envelopes of the ongoing observed event and the envelopes derived from the predicted envelopes of channels of ground motion of the Virtual Seismologist (VS) (Cua, G. and Heaton, T.). Then, we recursively filter this result with a simple running median (de-spiking operator) to minimize the effect of one single high value. Depending on the result of the filtered value we make a decision such as if this value is large enough (e.g., >1), then we would declare, 'that a larger event is in progress', or similarly if this value is small enough (e.g., <-1), then we would declare a false alarm. We design the algorithm to work at a wide range of amplitude scales; that is, it should work for both small and large events.

  14. Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2017-04-01

    In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating

  15. Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and

  16. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

    2013-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  17. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M.; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-01-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are...

  18. Dead Bird Clusters as an Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Activity

    OpenAIRE

    2003-01-01

    An early warning system for West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks could provide a basis for targeted public education and surveillance activities as well as more timely larval and adult mosquito control. We adapted the spatial scan statistic for prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks, applied the results to data on dead birds reported from New York City in 2000, and reviewed its utility in providing an early warning of WNV activity in 2001. Prospective geographic cluster analysis of ...

  19. Developing models to estimate the benefits from flood warnings: executive summary

    OpenAIRE

    Parker, Dennis J.; Priest, Sally J.; Tapsell, Sue M.; Handmer, John W.; Schildt, Anne

    2008-01-01

    Flood forecasting and warning systems have a significant role to play within integrated flood risk management, either in combination with mobile structural flood defences or as part of an approach which combines a number of non-structural measures. In theory the benefits of flood warnings, in terms of community security, protection of life and flood damage reduction, should be large. The theoretical benefit potential is being driven upwards by important advances in the predictive sciences, an...

  20. National women's knowledge of stroke warning signs, overall and by race/ethnic group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochari-Greenberger, Heidi; Towfighi, Amytis; Mosca, Lori

    2014-04-01

    Recognition of stroke warning signs may reduce treatment delays. The purpose of this study was to evaluate contemporary knowledge of stroke warning signs and knowledge to call 9-1-1, among a nationally representative sample of women, overall and by race/ethnic group. A study of cardiovascular disease awareness was conducted by the American Heart Association in 2012 among English-speaking US women ≥25 years identified through random-digit dialing (n=1205; 54% white, 17% black, 17% Hispanic, and 12% other). Knowledge of stroke warning signs, and what to do first if experiencing stroke warning signs, was assessed by standardized open-ended questions. Half of women surveyed (51%) identified sudden weakness/numbness of face/limb on one side as a stroke warning sign; this did not vary by race/ethnic group. Loss of/trouble talking/understanding speech was identified by 44% of women, more frequently among white versus Hispanic women (48% versus 36%; P<0.05). Fewer than 1 in 4 women identified sudden severe headache (23%), unexplained dizziness (20%), or sudden dimness/loss of vision (18%) as warning signs, and 1 in 5 (20%) did not know 1 stroke warning sign. The majority of women said that they would call 9-1-1 first if they thought they were experiencing signs of a stroke (84%), and this did not vary among black (86%), Hispanic (79%), or white/other (85%) women. Knowledge of stroke warning signs was low among a nationally representative sample of women, especially among Hispanics. In contrast, knowledge to call 9-1-1 when experiencing signs of stroke was high.

  1. Toxic Algae and Early Warning Management in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song; Lun; Song; Guangjun; Song; Yonggang; Xu; Xiaohong

    2014-01-01

    The research status of toxic algae in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are reviewed from the aspects of toxicity characteristics,toxic mechanism and early warning management,and the existing toxic algae and their toxicity in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are analyzed in the paper. The early warning level of toxic algae in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China is put forward,and the research direction of shellfish poisoning in future is summarized.

  2. REMOTE OPERATION OF THE WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alec H. Medbery

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The remote control of real time derivation of earthquake location and magnitude and the issuance of tsunami and earthquake bulletins was done using off-the-shelf remote control software and hardware. Such remote operation of the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center can decrease the time needed to respond to an earthquake by eliminating travel from the duty standers’ home to the tsunami warning center.

  3. Distribution of new graphic warning labels: Are tobacco companies following regulations?

    OpenAIRE

    Hoek Janet; Edwards Richard; Li Judy; Peace Jo; Wilson Nick; Stanley James; Thomson George

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Objective To test the hypothesis that tobacco companies would not follow a regulation that required seven new graphic health warnings (GHWs) to be evenly distributed on cigarette packs and that they would distribute fewer packs featuring warnings regarded by smokers as being more disturbing. Methods Cross-sectional survey of purchased packs (n = 168) and street-collected discarded packs (convenience sample of New Zealand cities and towns, n = 1208 packs) with statistical analysis of ...

  4. GEODATA: Information System Based on Geospatial for Early Warning Tracking and Analysis Agricultural Plant Diseases in Central Java

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyo, S. Y. J.; Agus, Y. H.; Dewi, C.; Simanjuntak, B. H.; Hartomo, K. D.

    2017-03-01

    The Government of Indonesia is currently faced with the problems of food, especially rice. It needs in large numbers that have to import from neighboring countries. Actually, the Indonesian government has the ability to produce rice to meet national needs but is still faced with the problem of pest attack rice annually increasing extent. One of the factors is that geographically Indonesia located on the migration path of world rice insect pests (called BPH or Brown Planthoppers) (Nilaparvata lugens Stal.) It leads endemic status annually. One proposed strategy to be applied is to use an early warning system based on a specific region of the main pest population. The proposed information system called GEODATA. GEODATA is Geospatial Outbreak of Disease Tracking and Analysis. The system works using a library ESSA (Exponential Smoothing - Spatial Autocorrelation) developed in previous studies in Satya Wacana Christian University. GEODATA built to meet the qualifications required surveillance device by BMKG (Indonesian Agency of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics’ Central Java Provinces), BPTPH (Indonesian Agency of Plant Protection and Horticulture) Central Java Provinces, BKP-KP District Boyolali, Central Java, (Indonesian Agency of Food Security and Agriculture Field Supervisor, District Boyolali, Central Java Provinces) and farmer groups. GIS GEODATA meets the needs of surveillance devices that include: (1) mapping of the disease, (2) analysis of the dynamics of the disease, and (3) prediction of attacks / disease outbreaks in a particular region. GIS GEODATA is currently under implementation in the laboratory field observations of plant pest in Central Java province, Indonesia.

  5. Distribution of new graphic warning labels: Are tobacco companies following regulations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoek Janet

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective To test the hypothesis that tobacco companies would not follow a regulation that required seven new graphic health warnings (GHWs to be evenly distributed on cigarette packs and that they would distribute fewer packs featuring warnings regarded by smokers as being more disturbing. Methods Cross-sectional survey of purchased packs (n = 168 and street-collected discarded packs (convenience sample of New Zealand cities and towns, n = 1208 packs with statistical analysis of seven types of new GHWs. A priori warning impact was judged using three criteria, which were tested against data from depth interviews with retailers. Results The GHWs on the purchased packs and street-collected packs both showed a distribution pattern that was generally consistent with the hypothesis ie, there were disproportionately more packs featuring images judged as "least disturbing" and disproportionately fewer of those with warnings judged "more disturbing". The overall patterns were statistically significant, suggesting an unequal frequency of the different warnings for both purchased (p Conclusion These results suggest that tobacco companies are not following the regulations, which requires even distribution of the seven different GHWs on cigarette packs; further monitoring is required to estimate the extent of this non-compliance. As an immediate measure, governments should strictly enforce all regulations applying to health warnings, particularly given that these are an effective tobacco control intervention that cost tax payers nothing.

  6. The Method of Oilfield Development Risk Forecasting and Early Warning Using Revised Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihua Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Oilfield development aiming at crude oil production is an extremely complex process, which involves many uncertain risk factors affecting oil output. Thus, risk prediction and early warning about oilfield development may insure operating and managing oilfields efficiently to meet the oil production plan of the country and sustainable development of oilfields. However, scholars and practitioners in the all world are seldom concerned with the risk problem of oilfield block development. The early warning index system of blocks development which includes the monitoring index and planning index was refined and formulated on the basis of researching and analyzing the theory of risk forecasting and early warning as well as the oilfield development. Based on the indexes of warning situation predicted by neural network, the method dividing the interval of warning degrees was presented by “3σ” rule; and a new method about forecasting and early warning of risk was proposed by introducing neural network to Bayesian networks. Case study shows that the results obtained in this paper are right and helpful to the management of oilfield development risk.

  7. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  8. Unveiling the truth: warnings reduce the repetition-based truth effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadarevic, Lena; Aßfalg, André

    2017-07-01

    Typically, people are more likely to consider a previously seen or heard statement as true compared to a novel statement. This repetition-based "truth effect" is thought to rely on fluency-truth attributions as the underlying cognitive mechanism. In two experiments, we tested the nature of the fluency-attribution mechanism by means of warning instructions, which informed participants about the truth effect and asked them to prevent it. In Experiment 1, we instructed warned participants to consider whether a statement had already been presented in the experiment to avoid the truth effect. However, warnings did not significantly reduce the truth effect. In Experiment 2, we introduced control questions and reminders to ensure that participants understood the warning instruction. This time, warning reduced, but did not eliminate the truth effect. Assuming that the truth effect relies on fluency-truth attributions, this finding suggests that warned participants could control their attributions but did not disregard fluency altogether when making truth judgments. Further, we found no evidence that participants overdiscount the influence of fluency on their truth judgments.

  9. Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.

  10. Effects of Shared Electronic Health Record Systems on Drug-Drug Interaction and Duplication Warning Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Rinner

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Shared electronic health records (EHRs systems can offer a complete medication overview of the prescriptions of different health care providers. We use health claims data of more than 1 million Austrians in 2006 and 2007 with 27 million prescriptions to estimate the effect of shared EHR systems on drug-drug interaction (DDI and duplication warnings detection and prevention. The Austria Codex and the ATC/DDD information were used as a knowledge base to detect possible DDIs. DDIs are categorized as severe, moderate, and minor interactions. In comparison to the current situation where only DDIs between drugs issued by a single health care provider can be checked, the number of warnings increases significantly if all drugs of a patient are checked: severe DDI warnings would be detected for 20% more persons, and the number of severe DDI warnings and duplication warnings would increase by 17%. We show that not only do shared EHR systems help to detect more patients with warnings but DDIs are also detected more frequently. Patient safety can be increased using shared EHR systems.

  11. Graphic gambling warnings: how they affect emotions, cognitive responses and attitude change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Yaromir; Chebat, Jean-Charles; Borges, Adilson

    2013-09-01

    The present study focuses on the effects of graphic warnings related to excessive gambling. It is based upon a theoretical model derived from both the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). We focus on video lottery terminal (VLT), one of the most hazardous format in the gaming industry. Our cohort consisted of 103 actual gamblers who reported previous gambling activity on VLT's on a regular basis. We assess the effectiveness of graphic warnings vs. text-only warnings and the effectiveness of two major arguments (i.e., family vs. financial disruption). A 2 × 2 factorial design was used to test the direct and combined effects of two variables (i.e., warning content and presence vs. absence of a graphic). It was found that the presence of a graphic enhances both cognitive appraisal and fear, and has positive effects on the Depth of Information Processing. In addition, graphic content combined with family disruptions is more effective for changing attitudes and complying with the warning than other combinations of the manipulated variables. It is proposed that ELM and PMT complement each other to explain the effects of warnings. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

  12. The efficacy of cigarette warning labels on health beliefs in the United States and Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutti, Seema; Hammond, David; Reid, Jessica L; Thrasher, James F

    2013-01-01

    Concern over health risks is the most common motivation for quitting smoking. Health warnings on tobacco packages are among the most prominent interventions to convey the health risks of smoking. Face-to-face surveys were conducted in Mexico (n = 1,072), and a web-based survey was conducted in the US (n = 1,449) to examine the efficacy of health warning labels on health beliefs. Respondents were randomly assigned to view two sets of health warnings (each with one text-only warning and 5-6 pictorial warnings) for two different health effects. Respondents were asked whether they believed smoking caused 12 different health effects. Overall, the findings indicate high levels of health knowledge in both countries for some health effects, although significant knowledge gaps remained; for example, less than half of respondents agreed that smoking causes impotence and less than one third agreed that smoking causes gangrene. Mexican respondents endorsed a greater number of correct beliefs about the health effects of smoking than did the U.S. sample. In both countries, viewing related health warning labels increased beliefs about the health risks of smoking, particularly for less well-known health effects such as gangrene, impotence, and stroke.

  13. Conceptual design and RCS performance research of shipborne early warning aircraft

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kuizhi Yue; Yong Gao; Guanxiong Li; Dazhao Yu

    2014-01-01

    In order to improve the survivability of the aircraft, conceptual design and radar cross section (RCS) performance research are done. The CATIA software is used to design the 3D digital model of the shipborne early warning aircraft, and some measures are taken to reduce the RCS characteristics of the early warning aircraft at the same time. Based on the physical optics method and the equivalent electromagnetic flow method, the aircraft’s RCS characteristics and strength distribution charac-teristics are simulated numerical y, and compared with the foreign advanced shipborne early warning aircraft. The simulation results show that under the X radar band, when the incident wave pitching angle is 0◦, compared with the foreign advanced shipborne early warning aircraft, the forward RCS average value of the concep-tual shipborne early warning aircraft is reduced to 24.49%, the lateral RCS average value is reduced to 5.04%, and the backward RCS average value is reduced to 39.26%. The research results of this paper are expected to provide theoretical basis and technical support for the conceptual design and the stealth design of the shipborne early warning aircraft.

  14. [Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

    2015-06-01

    Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.

  15. Optimization of rainfall thresholds for a flood warning system to Taiwan urban areas during storm events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hao-Yu; Pan, Tsung-Yi; Su, Ming-Daw; Hsieh, Ming-Chang; Tan, Yih-Chi

    2016-04-01

    Flood is one of the most damage disaster that always happen around the world. Because of the extreme weather change, the flood disaster damage becomes higher than before. In recent years, Taiwan suffered from flood damage frequently by excessive rainfall induced by extreme weather, like typhoons. Therefore, it is necessary to build an effective flood warning system to reduce the flood damage. The operational flood warning system in Taiwan is based on the rainfall thresholds. When cumulative rainfall over the rainfall thresholds, the flood warning system would alert the local government where region would happen flood disaster. According to the flood warning system alert, the governments have more time to prepare how to face the flood disaster before happens. Although Taiwanese government has a preliminary flood warning system, the system has still lack of theoretical background. For this reason, the alert accuracy of the system is limited. Thus it is important to develop the effective rainfall thresholds that could predict flood disaster successfully. The research aims to improve the accuracy of the system through statistical methods. When the accumulated rainfall reaches the alert value, the warning message would be announced early to government for dealing with flooding damage which would happen. According to extreme events, the data driven and statistical methods are adopted to calculate the optimum rainfall thresholds. The results of this study could be applied to enhance rainfall thresholds forecasting accuracy, and could reduce the risk of floods.

  16. Effects of auditory and tactile warning on response to visual hazards under a noisy environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, Atsuo; Kuroda, Takashi; Karwowski, Waldemar

    2017-04-01

    A warning signal presented via a visual or an auditory cue might interfere with auditory or visual information inside and outside a vehicle. On the other hand, such interference would be certainly reduced if a tactile cue is used. Therefore, it is expected that tactile cues would be promising as warning signals, especially in a noisy environment. In order to determine the most suitable modality of cue (warning) to a visual hazard in noisy environments, auditory and tactile cues were examined in this study. The condition of stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) was set to 0ms, 500ms, and 1000ms. Two types of noises were used: white noise and noise outside a vehicle recorded in a real-world driving environment. The noise level LAeq (equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure level) inside the experimental chamber of each type of noise was adjusted to approximately 60 dB (A), 70 dB (A), and 80 dB (A). As a result, it was verified that tactile warning was more effective than auditory warning. When the noise outside a vehicle from a real-driving environment was used as the noise inside the experimental chamber, the reaction time to the auditory warning was not affected by the noise level.

  17. NOAA/WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PACIFIC OCEAN RESPONSE CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garry Rogers

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or pre- computed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite.Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic.This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps. As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

  18. General Consumer Awareness of Warnings Regarding the Consumption of Alcoholic Beverages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ohtsu,Tadahiro

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Over the past two decades, the liquor industry in Japan has strived to address alcohol-related problems through initiatives such as warnings in the various media. In this study, we conducted an Internet-based questionnaire survey to examine general consumer awareness of such warnings, and the media by which they are conveyed, on the consumption of alcoholic beverages. A total of 985 subjects (males:487, females:498 in age groups ranging from 20s to 70s responded (response rate:22.4%. The awareness rates for warnings regarding underage drinking, drunk driving, and drinking during pregnancy, and those for messages encouraging moderation in drinking, were 96.4%, 83.7%, 59.6%, and 45.5%, respectively. Logistic regression analysis adjusted for habitual alcohol consumption demonstrated significant gender- and/or age-based differences in the rates of awareness of warnings and the media publicizing them. For example, the odds ratio of awareness among women of warnings against underage drinking was significantly higher than that of awareness among men. Issues that must be addressed in the future include:(1 increasing public awareness about messages regarding drinking during pregnancy and drinking in moderation;(2 reviewing the wording of warnings to make them more effective;and (3 devising and employing, on a regular basis, more effective means of transmitting messages in consideration of gender and age.

  19. How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

    2017-04-01

    Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

  20. NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, P.; Benz, H.; Bolton, M.; Crawford, G.; Dengler, L.; Fryer, G.; Goltz, J.; Hansen, R.; Kryzanowski, K.; Malone, S.; Oppenheimer, D.; Petty, E.; Rogers, G.; Wilson, Jim

    2008-01-01

    New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.