WorldWideScience

Sample records for warning area cwa

  1. KZHU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  2. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  3. KZJX Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  4. KZBW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  5. KZFW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  6. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  7. KZME Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  8. KZDV Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  9. KZNY Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  10. KZDC Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  11. KZAU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  12. AIRIS Wide Area Detector for Integrated Early Warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Marinelli, William J; Finson, Michael L; Hagge, John; Gittins, Christopher M; Ustun, Teoman E; Chang, Shing; Rossi, David C; Jensen, James O

    2004-01-01

    ...), toxic industrial chemicals (TIC), and biological warfare agent aerosols. This sensor is capable of detecting CWA vapors at levels required of the non-imaging JSLSCAD sensor, as well as many TICs, at their toxicity threshold...

  13. A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery

    2015-04-01

    The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.

  14. Protective measures while treating CWA casualties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medema, J.

    2009-01-01

    When Chemical Warfare agent casualties are brought into a medical facility they are usually decontaminated before receiving treatment. The decontamination can range from simply undressing to complex entry/exit procedures for a collective protection medical shelter. It is expected that the decontamination has reduced the contamination to such a degree that there is no more hazard for the medical personnel from emanating CWA vapors. However there is quite some evidence that this is usually not the case and additional protective measures are required in order to have the medical staff operating unhindered and not endangered by albeit low but still hazardous CWA vapor concentrations that at the end of the day would have adverse effects on the capabilities of the medical staff. In the paper some simple but effective means will be described that will reduce the exposure of the medical staff to.(author)

  15. Signalling fiscal stress in the euro area - a country-specific early warning system

    OpenAIRE

    Hernández de Cos, Pablo; Koester, Gerrit B.; Moral-Benito, Enrique; Nickel, Christiane

    2014-01-01

    The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build?up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible improvements to enhance existing early warning indicators for fiscal stress, especially for the euro area. We show that a country?specific approach could strongly increase the signalling power of early war...

  16. Flood warnings in coastal areas: how do experience and information influence responses to alert services?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pescaroli, G.; Magni, M.

    2015-04-01

    Many studies discuss the economic and technical aspects of flood warnings. Less attention has been given to the social and behavioural patterns that affect alert services. In particular, the literature focuses on warnings activated in river basins or marine environments without providing clear evidence on Mediterranean coastal areas, even though these are subjected to growing flood risk related to climate change. This paper is a first attempt to bridge this gap. Our research develops an in-depth analysis of the village of Cesenatico on the Adriatic Sea coast. Here the municipality adopted two complementary warning systems: a siren and an alert via short message service (SMS). The analysis focuses on a survey conducted in 2011 and 2012 with 228 participants. The relationships between social and behavioural variables and warning services are investigated as well as flood preparedness and information dissemination. Qualitative evidence from informal interviews is used to support the understanding of key responses. The conclusions show how different social and behavioural patterns can influence the effectiveness and use of warning systems, regardless of the technology adopted and the structural mitigation measures implemented. Education, training and accountability are seen to be critical elements for implementation. Finally, the statistical output is used to suggest new questions and new directions for research.

  17. Flood warnings in coastal areas: how do social and behavioural patterns influence alert services?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pescaroli, G.; Magni, M.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies discuss the economic and technical aspects of flood warnings. Less attention has been given to the social and psychological patterns that affect alert services. In particular, the literature focuses on warnings activated in river basins or marine environments without providing clear evidence of relevance to Mediterranean coastal areas, even though these are subjected to growing flood risk related to climate change. This paper is a first attempt to bridge this gap. Our research develops an in- depth analysis of the village of Cesenatico on the Adriatic Sea coast. Here the municipality adopted two complementary warning systems: a siren and an alert via Short Message Service (SMS). The analysis focuses on a survey conducted in 2011 and 2012 with 228 participants. The relationships between social and behavioural variables and warning services are investigated, and so are flood preparedness and information dissemination. Qualitative evidence from informal interviews is used to support the understanding of key responses. The conclusions show how different social and behavioural patterns can influence the effectiveness and use of warning systems, regardless of the technology adopted and the structural mitigation measures implemented. Education, training and accountability are seen to be critical elements for improvement. Finally, the statistical output is used to suggest new questions and new directions for research.

  18. Early warning of illegal development for protected areas by integrating cellular automata with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xia; Lao, Chunhua; Liu, Yilun; Liu, Xiaoping; Chen, Yimin; Li, Shaoying; Ai, Bing; He, Zijian

    2013-11-30

    Ecological security has become a major issue under fast urbanization in China. As the first two cities in this country, Shenzhen and Dongguan issued the ordinance of Eco-designated Line of Control (ELC) to "wire" ecologically important areas for strict protection in 2005 and 2009 respectively. Early warning systems (EWS) are a useful tool for assisting the implementation ELC. In this study, a multi-model approach is proposed for the early warning of illegal development by integrating cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The objective is to prevent the ecological risks or catastrophe caused by such development at an early stage. The integrated model is calibrated by using the empirical information from both remote sensing and handheld GPS (global positioning systems). The MAR indicator which is the ratio of missing alarms to all the warnings is proposed for better assessment of the model performance. It is found that the fast urban development has caused significant threats to natural-area protection in the study area. The integration of CA, ANN and GPS provides a powerful tool for describing and predicting illegal development which is in highly non-linear and fragmented forms. The comparison shows that this multi-model approach has much better performances than the single-model approach for the early warning. Compared with the single models of CA and ANN, this integrated multi-model can improve the value of MAR by 65.48% and 5.17% respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hua-Li; Jiang, Yuan-Jun; Wang, Jun; Ou, Guo-Qiang

    2018-05-01

    Debris flows are natural disasters that frequently occur in mountainous areas, usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. One of the most commonly used approaches to mitigate the risk associated with debris flows is the implementation of early warning systems based on well-calibrated rainfall thresholds. However, many mountainous areas have little data regarding rainfall and hazards, especially in debris-flow-forming regions. Therefore, the traditional statistical analysis method that determines the empirical relationship between rainstorms and debris flow events cannot be effectively used to calculate reliable rainfall thresholds in these areas. After the severe Wenchuan earthquake, there were plenty of deposits deposited in the gullies, which resulted in several debris flow events. The triggering rainfall threshold has decreased obviously. To get a reliable and accurate rainfall threshold and improve the accuracy of debris flow early warning, this paper developed a quantitative method, which is suitable for debris flow triggering mechanisms in meizoseismal areas, to identify rainfall threshold for debris flow early warning in areas with a scarcity of data based on the initiation mechanism of hydraulic-driven debris flow. First, we studied the characteristics of the study area, including meteorology, hydrology, topography and physical characteristics of the loose solid materials. Then, the rainfall threshold was calculated by the initiation mechanism of the hydraulic debris flow. The comparison with other models and with alternate configurations demonstrates that the proposed rainfall threshold curve is a function of the antecedent precipitation index (API) and 1 h rainfall. To test the proposed method, we selected the Guojuanyan gully, a typical debris flow valley that during the 2008-2013 period experienced several debris flow events, located in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, as a case study. The comparison with other

  20. Electrothermal Desorption of CWA Simulants from Activated Carbon Cloth

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sullivan, Patrick D; Wander, Joseph D; Newsome, Kolin C

    2006-01-01

    The use of activated carbon fabrics (ACFs) that are desorbed electrothermally, also known as the Joule effect, is explored as a potential method to create a regenerating chemical warfare agent (CWA) filter...

  1. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the

  2. Development of a precipitation-area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Deg-Hyo; Lee, Moon-Hwan; Moon, Sung-Keun

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents quantitative criteria for flash flood warning that can be used to rapidly assess flash flood occurrence based on only rainfall estimates. This study was conducted for 200 small mountainous sub-catchments of the Han River basin in South Korea because South Korea has recently suffered many flash flood events. The quantitative criteria are calculated based on flash flood guidance (FFG), which is defined as the depth of rainfall of a given duration required to cause frequent flooding (1-2-year return period) at the outlet of a small stream basin and is estimated using threshold runoff (TR) and antecedent soil moisture conditions in all sub-basins. The soil moisture conditions were estimated during the flooding season, i.e., July, August and September, over 7 years (2002-2009) using the Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. A ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to obtain optimum rainfall values and a generalized precipitation-area (P-A) curve was developed for flash flood warning thresholds. The threshold function was derived as a P-A curve because the precipitation threshold with a short duration is more closely related to basin area than any other variables. For a brief description of the P-A curve, generalized thresholds for flash flood warnings can be suggested for rainfall rates of 42, 32 and 20 mm h-1 in sub-basins with areas of 22-40, 40-100 and > 100 km2, respectively. The proposed P-A curve was validated based on observed flash flood events in different sub-basins. Flash flood occurrences were captured for 9 out of 12 events. This result can be used instead of FFG to identify brief flash flood (less than 1 h), and it can provide warning information to decision-makers or citizens that is relatively simple, clear and immediate.

  3. Operation of a real-time warning system for debris flows in the San Francisco bay area, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Raymond C.; Mark, Robert K.; Barbato, Gary; ,

    1993-01-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have developed an operational warning system for debris flows during severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS makes quantitative forecasts of precipitation from storm systems approaching the Bay area and coordinates a regional network of radio-telemetered rain gages. The USGS has formulated thresholds for the intensity and duration of rainfall required to initiate debris flows. The first successful public warnings were issued during a severe storm sequence in February 1986. Continued operation of the warning system since 1986 has provided valuable working experience in rainfall forecasting and monitoring, refined rainfall thresholds, and streamlined procedures for issuing public warnings. Advisory statements issued since 1986 are summarized.

  4. INSAR For Early Warning Of Possible Highway Instability Over Undermined Area Of Ostrava

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazecky, Milan; Kacmarik, Michal; Rapant, Petr

    2012-01-01

    A part of czech highway D1 connecting Ostrava with Prague and Poland, is built over an undermined area of Ostrava-Svinov. Since the end of 2010, this part of the highway is fully operational. Because of undermining, a subsidence can be expected, however with a very slow rate since the mines are no more active in this area. Several TerraSAR-X images from 2011 are investigated interferometrically in order to estimate a precise deformation model. Subjects of interest are movements of newly built highway bridges, banks and close neighbourhood. Existing C-band multitemporal InSAR processing results of ERS and Envisat are available from an earlier period that reveil a slow trend of residual subsidence. In this project, InSAR will be investigated as a tool for an early warning for highway stability.

  5. Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.

    2016-02-01

    The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

  6. An 'Early Warning System' for the prevention of dredging potential impacts on sensitive areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piermattei, Viviana; Martellucci, Riccardo; Pierattini, Alberto; Bonamano, Simone; Paladini de Mendoza, Francesco; Albani, Marta; Stefanì, Chiara; Madonia, Alice; Fersini, Giorgio; Marcelli, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly subject to multiple pressures and stressors produced by the effects of human activities. Intense and frequent disturbances which affect marine environment can derive from dredging activity, which is a fundamental management for most ports and harbours. The potential environmental effects of dredging procedures are generally due to the excavation of material from the sea bottom and the relocation elsewhere for disposal, overflow from the dredger and loss of material from pipelines during transport. Depending on the location and the intensity of these activities the marine environment, particularly sensitive areas, may be affected by dredging. The main environmental effects can be associated with suspended sediments and increases in turbidity into the water column, which can have adverse effects on marine animals and plants by reducing light penetration and by physical disturbance. For this reason it is fundamental to implement a real time monitoring system to control and prevent negative effects, enabling a rapid response to adverse water quality conditions and a fast activation of mitigation procedures, in agreement with all the reference authorities. In this work we present the development of an innovative 'Early Warning System' based on fixed stations, ad hoc in situ surveys and forecasting models, which was applied to a dredging activity carried out in the Gulf of Gaeta (Latium, Italy). It represents an extension of the C-CEMS (Civitavecchia Coastal Environmental Monitoring System) network, which is operative in the Tyrrhenian sea since 2005.

  7. Evaluation on the Implementation of Early Warning System for Debris Flow in Merapi Area (Case Study at Boyong River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Cahyadi Achmad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of disasters caused by volcanic activity of Mount Merapi is secondary disaster. The disaster usually occurs after eruption and this volcanic activity produces volcanic and pyroclastic material deposit around the top of the mountain as a result of previous eruption. This material might collapse downward in the form of debris flow as it is affected by natural event such as high intensity rainfall. Therefore, a research is needed to analyze whether existing forecasting and early warning system are capable to provide information for the people living in hazardous area before the debris flood occur. This research was carried out using field survey, observation and interview method. Data analysis used qualitative descriptive method by making description of actual condition of the researched location general condition and qualitative analysis of telemetry system installed on Mount Merapi. The qualitative analysis of telemetry system covers network, hardware, software, power supply, security system, operation and maintenance, also human resources. Research analysis used primary and secondary data. Research results revealed that mean rainfall intensity above of 60 mm/hour might trigger debris flood. Early warning should be given at the rainfall intensity level of 50-55 mm/hour, and debris flood time travel from the upstream to the observed location in Pulowatu Village is 45 minute. Based on the analysis of the present forecasting and early warning system, it is known that some of the equipment is not well functioned, so that debris flow cannot be predicted and detected. This is caused by the lack of human resource quality of the officers in operating and maintaining the equipment. Concerning that matter, it is necessary to conduct some improvement to achieve better forecasting and early warning system in order to give information regarding occurrence of debris flow.

  8. Radioactively contaminated areas: Bioindicator species and biomarkers of effect in an early warning scheme for a preliminary risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lourenço, Joana, E-mail: joanalourenco@ua.pt [Department of Biology & CESAM, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, Aveiro (Portugal); Mendo, Sónia [Department of Biology & CESAM, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, Aveiro (Portugal); Pereira, Ruth [Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto & CIIMAR – Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research & GreenUP/CITAB-UP, Porto (Portugal)

    2016-11-05

    Highlights: • Knowing the most used biomarkers and bioindicators used in radioactive areas. • Understanding of the response similarities between human and non-human biota. • Identifying the knowledge gaps. • Proposing an early warning scheme, to perform a screening evaluation of radioactive areas. • Permitting routine assessments without disturbing and alarming local populations. - Abstract: Concerns about the impacts on public health and on the natural environment have been raised regarding the full range of operational activities related to uranium mining and the rest of the nuclear fuel cycle (including nuclear accidents), nuclear tests and depleted uranium from military ammunitions. However, the environmental impacts of such activities, as well as their ecotoxicological/toxicological profile, are still poorly studied. Herein, it is discussed if organisms can be used as bioindicators of human health effects, posed by lifetime exposure to radioactively contaminated areas. To do so, information was gathered from several studies performed on vertebrates, invertebrate species and humans, living in these contaminated areas. The retrieved information was compared, to determine which are the most used bioindicators and biomarkers and also the similarities between human and non-human biota responses. The data evaluated are used to support the proposal for an early warning scheme, based on bioindicator species and on the most sensitive and commonly shared biomarkers, to perform a screening evaluation of radioactively contaminated sites. This scheme could be used to support decision-making for a deeper evaluation of risks to human health, making it possible to screen a large number of areas, without disturbing and alarming local populations.

  9. Effect of In-Vehicle Audio Warning System on Driver’s Speed Control Performance in Transition Zones from Rural Areas to Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuedong Yan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Speeding is a major contributing factor to traffic crashes and frequently happens in areas where there is a mutation in speed limits, such as the transition zones that connect urban areas from rural areas. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of an in-vehicle audio warning system and lit speed limit sign on preventing drivers’ speeding behavior in transition zones. A high-fidelity driving simulator was used to establish a roadway network with the transition zone. A total of 41 participants were recruited for this experiment, and the driving speed performance data were collected from the simulator. The experimental results display that the implementation of the audio warning system could significantly reduce drivers’ operating speed before they entered the urban area, while the lit speed limit sign had a minimal effect on improving the drivers’ speed control performance. Without consideration of different types of speed limit signs, it is found that male drivers generally had a higher operating speed both upstream and in the transition zones and have a larger maximum deceleration for speed reduction than female drivers. Moreover, the drivers who had medium-level driving experience had the higher operating speed and were more likely to have speeding behaviors in the transition zones than those who had low-level and high-level driving experience in the transition zones.

  10. Application of Advanced Wide Area Early Warning Systems with Adaptive Protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blumstein, Carl [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Cibulka, Lloyd [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Thorp, James [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Centeno, Virgilio [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); King, Roger [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Reeves, Kari [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Ashrafi, Frank [Southern California Edison Co., Rosemead, CA (United States); Madani, Vahid [Pacific Gas & Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    Recent blackouts of power systems in North America and throughout the world have shown how critical a reliable power system is to modern societies, and the enormous economic and societal damage a blackout can cause. It has been noted that unanticipated operation of protection systems can contribute to cascading phenomena and, ultimately, blackouts. This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second method detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers.

  11. Designing and implementing more effective Integrated Early Warning Systems in mountain areas: a case study from Northern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina García

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is essential to consider and to understand the social context in which an Early Warning System (EWS is planned and to integrate all of its components, otherwise it is likely to fail. EWS are complex tools for disaster risk reduction which are only effective if they generate an appropriate response in the exposed population. Any effective EWS relies on the reaction capacity of all stakeholders. This reaction capacity is strongly dependent on how well EWS are integrated within their social context, especially with regards to potential marginalized and vulnerable communities. This dependence was confirmed in the study area in Valtellina di Tirano, northern Italy, which is recurrently affected by multiple mountain hazards. The local population is geographically marginalized due to restricted access to the region and exposure to hazardous events, and socially marginalized due to the lack of participation in decision making. Results of a survey show that the local population has low levels of perceived risk, a general lack of self-responsibility with regard to disaster risk reduction, and a tendency to transfer the responsibility to the authorities. However, respondents acknowledge and show interest in addressing their lack of preparedness and in participating actively in disaster risk reduction efforts. A follow-up survey demonstrates that significant variations in vulnerability within a given community over time, occur together with changes in traditional livelihood activities, economic systems and population demographics.

  12. A Case Study of Damage Energy Analysis and an Early Warning by Microseismic Monitoring for Large Area Roof Caving in Shallow Depth Seams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Like Wei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Shallow depth coal seams are widely spread in Shendong mining area, which is located in the Northwestern region of China. When working face is advanced out of concentrated coal pillar in upper room and pillar goaf, strong strata behaviors often cause support crushing accidents, and potentially induce large area residual pillars instability and even wind blast disaster. In order to predict the precise time when the accident happens, guaranteeing life-safety of miner, microseismic monitoring system was for the first time applied in shallow coal seam. Based on damage mechanics correlation theory, the damage energy model is established to describe relationship between damage level and cumulative energy of microseismic events. According to microseismic monitoring data of two support crushing accidents, the damage energy model is verified and an effective early warning method of these accidents is proposed. The field application showed that the early warning method had avoided miners suffering from all support crushing accidents in Shigetai coal mine.

  13. [Assessment and early warning of land ecological security in rapidly urbanizing coastal area: A case study of Caofeidian new district, Hebei, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Chen, Ying; Wang, Shu-tao; Men, Ming-xin; Xu, Hao

    2015-08-01

    Assessment and early warning of land ecological security (LES) in rapidly urbanizing coastal area is an important issue to ensure sustainable land use and effective maintenance of land ecological security. In this study, an index system for the land ecological security of Caofeidian new district was established based on the Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R) model. Initial assessment units of 1 km x 1 km created with the remote sensing data and GIS methods were spatially interpolated to a fine pixel size of 30 m x 30 m, which were combined with the early warning method (using classification tree method) to evaluate the land ecological security of Caofeidian in 2005 and 2013. The early warning level was classed into four categories: security with degradation potential, sub-security with slow degradation, sub-security with rapid degradation, and insecurity. Result indicated that, from 2005 to 2013, the average LES of Caofeidian dropped from 0.55 to 0.52, indicating a degradation of land ecological security from medium security level to medium-low security level. The areas at the levels of insecurity with rapid degradation were mainly located in the rapid urbanization areas, illustrating that rapid expansion of urban construction land was the key factor to the deterioration of the regional land ecological security. Industrial District, Shilihai town and Nanpu saltern, in which the lands at the levels of insecurity and sub-security with rapid degradation or slow degradation accounted for 58.3%, 98.9% and 81.2% of their respective districts, were at the stage of high early warning. Thus, land ecological security regulation for these districts should be strengthened in near future. The study could provide a reference for land use planning and ecological protection of Caofeidian new district.

  14. Flash flood warning in mountainaious areas: using damages reports to evaluate the method at small ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defrance, Dimitri; Javelle, Pierre; Ecrepont, Stéphane; Andreassian, Vazken

    2013-04-01

    In Europe, flash floods mainly occur in the Mediterranean area on small catchments with a short concentration time. Anticipating this kind of events is a major issue in order to reduce the resulting damages. But for many of the impacted catchments, no data are available to calibrate and evaluate hydrological models. In this context, the aims of this study is to develop and evaluate a warning method for the Southern French Alps. This area is of particular interest, because it regroups different hydrological regimes, from purely Mediterranean to purely Alpine influences. Two main issues should be addressed: - How to define the hydrological model and its parameterization for an application in an ungauged context? - How to evaluate the final results on 'real' ungauged catchments? The first issue is a classic one. Using a 'observed' data set (154 streamflow stations with catchment areas ranging from 5 to 1000 km² and distributed rainfall available on the 1997-2006 period), we developed a regional model specifically for the studied area. For this purpose, the AIGA method, initially developed for Mediterranean catchments was adapted, in order to take into account snowmelt and to produce baseflows. Then, different parameterizations were tested, derived from different simple regionalisation techniques: - the same parameters set for the whole area defined as the median of the local calibrated parameters; - the same technique as the previous case, but by considering different sub-areas, defined as "hydro-climatically" homogeneous by previous studies; - and finally the neighbour's method. The second issue is more original. Indeed, in most studies the final evaluation is done using gauged stations as they were 'ungauged', ie keeping the at-site discharge data only for validation ant not for calibration. The main disadvantage of this approach is that the evaluation is made at the scale of the gauged catchments, which are in general greater than the catchments impacted by flash

  15. Training warning flags

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Richard C.

    2003-01-01

    Problems in accredited training programmes at US nuclear stations have resulted in several programmes having their accreditation status designated as probationary. A limited probationary period allows time for problem resolution before the programmes are again reviewed by the National Nuclear Accrediting Board. A careful study of these problems has resulted in the identification of several 'Training Warning Flags' that singularly, or in concert, may indicate or predict degraded training programme effectiveness. These training warning flags have been used by several US nuclear stations as a framework for self-assessments, as a reference in making changes to training programmes, and as a tool in considering student and management feedback on training activities. Further analysis and consideration of the training warning flags has developed precursors for each of the training warning flags. Although more subjective than the training warning flags, the precursors may represent early indicators of factors that may lead to or contribute to degraded training programme effectiveness. Used as evaluative tools, the training warning flags and the precursors may help identify areas for improvements in training programmes and help prioritize training programme improvement efforts. (author)

  16. Clean Water Act (CWA) Action Plan Implementation Priorities: Changes to Improve Water Quality, Increase Compliance and Expand Transparency

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Clean Water Act (CWA) Action Plan Implementation Priorities describes the new approaches to revamp the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permitting, compliance and enforcement program.Issued May 11, 2011

  17. Confusion in regulating coal mine water pollution: Regulatory overlap in SMCRA and the CWA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-11-01

    Whenever a government uses two major pieces of legislation to combat a single public enemy, complaints of over-regulation and questions of jurisdiction from the individuals and industries affected are inevitable. Acid mine drainage (AMD) is a harmful and elusive enemy which threatens the integrity of our nation`s waters. The threat it poses to our environment cannot be solved without the awesome power of government; however, a fair and consistent enforcement of these two acts is imperative. The mining industry`s push to exempt landowners from liability for the acid discharges from abandoned mines is questionable in light of the serious AMD problems from these sources. The burden imposed on landowners to take abatement measures under the CWA is far outweighed by the continuing threat of abandoned mine AMD. The state environmental authorities who must completely reclaim these abandoned mine lands must pursue the landowners and make them pay the costs. In order to accomplish this, the state SMCRA regulators must increase coordination with the EPA`s state counterparts. The deficit problem in the ANL trust fund likely to improve anytime soon. Since SMCRA prohibits holding landowners liable for reclamation costs, the only way the abandoned mine AMD problem can be effectively remedied is by state environmental authorities seeking sanctions under the probably correct in claiming that the current CWA laws governing in-stream impoundments are overly burdensome. The EPA`s interest in protecting the quality of industrial impoundments that have no meaningful wetlands or recreational use seems to serve no rational purpose, especially in light of the onerous burden it places on coal operators attempting to comply with the CWA.

  18. The carbohydrate-binding module (CBM)-like sequence is crucial for rice CWA1/BC1 function in proper assembly of secondary cell wall materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Kanna; Ito, Sachiko; Fujii, Takeo; Suzuki, Ryu; Takenouchi, Sachi; Nakaba, Satoshi; Funada, Ryo; Sano, Yuzou; Kajita, Shinya; Kitano, Hidemi; Katayama, Yoshihiro

    2010-11-01

    We recently reported that the cwa1 mutation disturbed the deposition and assembly of secondary cell wall materials in the cortical fiber of rice internodes. Genetic analysis revealed that cwa1 is allelic to bc1, which encodes glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored COBRA-like protein with the highest homology to Arabidopsis COBRA-like 4 (COBL4) and maize Brittle Stalk 2 (Bk2). Our results suggested that CWA1/BC1 plays a role in assembling secondary cell wall materials at appropriate sites, enabling synthesis of highly ordered secondary cell wall structure with solid and flexible internodes in rice. The N-terminal amino acid sequence of CWA1/BC1, as well as its orthologs (COBL4, Bk2) and other BC1-like proteins in rice, shows weak similarity to a family II carbohydrate-binding module (CBM2) of several bacterial cellulases. To investigate the importance of the CBM-like sequence of CWA1/BC1 in the assembly of secondary cell wall materials, Trp residues in the CBM-like sequence, which is important for carbohydrate binding, were substituted for Val residues and introduced into the cwa1 mutant. CWA1/BC1 with the mutated sequence did not complement the abnormal secondary cell walls seen in the cwa1 mutant, indicating that the CBM-like sequence is essential for the proper function of CWA1/BC1, including assembly of secondary cell wall materials.

  19. Reactive skin decontamination lotion (RSDL) for the decontamination of chemical warfare agent (CWA) dermal exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, M D; Hurst, C G; Kirk, M A; Reedy, S J D; Braue, E H

    2012-08-01

    Rapid decontamination of the skin is the single most important action to prevent dermal absorption of chemical contaminants in persons exposed to chemical warfare agents (CWA) and toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) as a result of accidental or intentional release. Chemicals on the skin may be removed by mechanical means through the use of dry sorbents or water. Recent interest in decontamination systems which both partition contaminants away from the skin and actively neutralize the chemical has led to the development of several reactive decontamination solutions. This article will review the recently FDA-approved Reactive Skin Decontamination Lotion (RSDL) and will summarize the toxicity and efficacy studies conducted to date. Evidence of RSDL's superior performance against vesicant and organophosphorus chemical warfare agents compared to water, bleach, and dry sorbents, suggests that RSDL may have a role in mass human exposure chemical decontamination in both the military and civilian arenas.

  20. Public Notice: J.F. White Contracting Co. and Massachusetts Department of Transportation, CWA-01-2016-0009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notice of Proposed Assessment of Class II Clean Water Act Section 309(g)(2)(B) Administrative Penalties and Opportunity to Comment for J.F. White Contracting Co., Framingham, MA & Massachusetts Department of Transportation, Boston, MA, CWA-01-2016-0009

  1. Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung-Seok; Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline K; Herrera, Victor M; Park, Il-Yeon; Villar, Luis; Farlow, Andrew

    2017-07-10

    Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

  2. Evaluation of the efficacy of a portable LIBS system for detection of CWA on surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'Hermite, D; Vors, E; Vercouter, T; Moutiers, G

    2016-05-01

    Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a laser-based optical technique particularly suited for in situ surface analysis. A portable LIBS instrument was tested to detect surface chemical contamination by chemical warfare agents (CWAs). Test of detection of surface contamination was carried out in a toxlab facility with four CWAs, sarin (GB), lewisite (L1), mustard gas (HD), and VX, which were deposited on different substrates, wood, concrete, military green paint, gloves, and ceramic. The CWAs were detected by means of the detection of atomic markers (As, P, F, Cl, and S). The LIBS instrument can give a direct response in terms of detection thanks to an integrated interface for non-expert users or so called end-users. We have evaluated the capability of automatic detection of the selected CWAs. The sensitivity of our portable LIBS instrument was confirmed for the detection of a CWA at surface concentrations above 15 μg/cm(2). The simultaneous detection of two markers may lead to a decrease of the number of false positive.

  3. FTIR gas analysis with improved sensitivity and selectivity for CWA and TIC detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Charles M.; Tan, Huwei

    2010-04-01

    This presentation describes the use of an FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared)-based spectrometer designed to continuously monitor ambient air for the presence of chemical warfare agents (CWAs) and toxic industrial chemicals (TICs). The necessity of a reliable system capable of quickly and accurately detecting very low levels of CWAs and TICs while simultaneously retaining a negligible false alarm rate will be explored. Technological advancements in FTIR sensing have reduced noise while increasing selectivity and speed of detection. These novel analyzer design characteristics are discussed in detail and descriptions are provided which show how optical throughput, gas cell form factor, and detector response are optimized. The hardware and algorithms described here will explain why this FTIR system is very effective for the simultaneous detection and speciation of a wide variety of toxic compounds at ppb concentrations. Analytical test data will be reviewed demonstrating the system's sensitivity to and selectivity for specific CWAs and TICs; this will include recent data acquired as part of the DHS ARFCAM (Autonomous Rapid Facility Chemical Agent Monitor) project. These results include analyses of the data from live agent testing for the determination of CWA detection limits, immunity to interferences, detection times, residual noise analysis and false alarm rates. Sensing systems such as this are critical for effective chemical hazard identification which is directly relevant to the CBRNE community.

  4. Quake warnings, seismic culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Richard M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Huggins, Tom; Miles, Scott; Otegui, Diego

    2017-01-01

    Since 1990, nearly one million people have died from the impacts of earthquakes. Reducing those impacts requires building a local seismic culture in which residents are aware of earthquake risks and value efforts to mitigate harm. Such efforts include earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that provide seconds to minutes notice of pending shaking. Recent events in Mexico provide an opportunity to assess performance and perception of an EEW system and highlight areas for further improvement. We have learned that EEW systems, even imperfect ones, can help people prepare for earthquakes and build local seismic culture, both beneficial in reducing earthquake-related losses.

  5. Microwave warning device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shriner, W.

    1981-01-01

    A device for warning a person carrying or wearing it of the presence of dangerous microwave radiation is fully powered by the radiations being detected. A very low-wattage gas-discharge lamp is energized by a broadly or a sharply tuned receiver circuit including dipole antennas or one antenna and a ''grounding'' casing element. The casing may be largely and uniformly transparent or have different areas gradedly light-transmissive to indicate varying radiation intensities. The casing can be made in the shape of a pocket watch, fountain pen, bracelet or finger ring, etc

  6. Demonstration of a Novel Synchrophasor-based Situational Awareness System: Wide Area Power System Visualization, On-line Event Replay and Early Warning of Grid Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosso, A.

    2012-12-31

    Since the large North Eastern power system blackout on August 14, 2003, U.S. electric utilities have spent lot of effort on preventing power system cascading outages. Two of the main causes of the August 14, 2003 blackout were inadequate situational awareness and inadequate operator training In addition to the enhancements of the infrastructure of the interconnected power systems, more research and development of advanced power system applications are required for improving the wide-area security monitoring, operation and planning in order to prevent large- scale cascading outages of interconnected power systems. It is critically important for improving the wide-area situation awareness of the operators or operational engineers and regional reliability coordinators of large interconnected systems. With the installation of large number of phasor measurement units (PMU) and the related communication infrastructure, it will be possible to improve the operators’ situation awareness and to quickly identify the sequence of events during a large system disturbance for the post-event analysis using the real-time or historical synchrophasor data. The purpose of this project was to develop and demonstrate a novel synchrophasor-based comprehensive situational awareness system for control centers of power transmission systems. The developed system named WASA (Wide Area Situation Awareness) is intended to improve situational awareness at control centers of the power system operators and regional reliability coordinators. It consists of following main software modules: • Wide-area visualizations of real-time frequency, voltage, and phase angle measurements and their contour displays for security monitoring. • Online detection and location of a major event (location, time, size, and type, such as generator or line outage). • Near-real-time event replay (in seconds) after a major event occurs. • Early warning of potential wide-area stability problems. The system has been

  7. Warning Signs of Bullying

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of Aggressive Behavior Print Share Warning Signs for Bullying There are many warning signs that may indicate ... Get help right away . Signs a Child is Bullying Others Kids may be bullying others if they: ...

  8. Storm Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tammy; Kier, Meredith; Phillips, Kelsey

    2016-01-01

    To show students how engineering design practices reduce the impacts of a natural hazard, the authors--two science educators and an elementary teacher--taught a three-day 5E lesson that focused on hurricanes. They specifically focused on hurricanes because their students are located near a coastal area and are familiar with the effects of this…

  9. Harmonization of European laboratory response networks by implementing CWA 15793: use of a gap analysis and an "insider" exercise as tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundqvist, Bo; Bengtsson, Ulrika Allard; Wisselink, Henk J; Peeters, Ben P H; van Rotterdam, Bart; Kampert, Evelien; Bereczky, Sándor; Johan Olsson, N G; Szekely Björndal, Asa; Zini, Sylvie; Allix, Sébastien; Knutsson, Rickard

    2013-09-01

    Laboratory response networks (LRNs) have been established for security reasons in several countries including the Netherlands, France, and Sweden. LRNs function in these countries as a preparedness measure for a coordinated diagnostic response capability in case of a bioterrorism incident or other biocrimes. Generally, these LRNs are organized on a national level. The EU project AniBioThreat has identified the need for an integrated European LRN to strengthen preparedness against animal bioterrorism. One task of the AniBioThreat project is to suggest a plan to implement laboratory biorisk management CWA 15793:2011 (CWA 15793), a management system built on the principle of continual improvement through the Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycle. The implementation of CWA 15793 can facilitate trust and credibility in a future European LRN and is an assurance that the work done at the laboratories is performed in a structured way with continuous improvements. As a first step, a gap analysis was performed to establish the current compliance status of biosafety and laboratory biosecurity management with CWA 15793 in 5 AniBioThreat partner institutes in France (ANSES), the Netherlands (CVI and RIVM), and Sweden (SMI and SVA). All 5 partners are national and/or international laboratory reference institutes in the field of public or animal health and possess high-containment laboratories and animal facilities. The gap analysis showed that the participating institutes already have robust biorisk management programs in place, but several gaps were identified that need to be addressed. Despite differences between the participating institutes in their compliance status, these variations are not significant. Biorisk management exercises also have been identified as a useful tool to control compliance status and thereby implementation of CWA 15793. An exercise concerning an insider threat and loss of a biological agent was performed at SVA in the AniBioThreat project to evaluate

  10. Application of Clean Water (CWA) Section 404 compensatory wetland mitigation under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbott, D.J.; Straub, C.A.

    1994-01-01

    Pursuant to Section 404 of the Clean Water Act (CWA), activities resulting in the discharge of dredge or fill material into waters of the US, including wetlands, require permit authorization from the US Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE). As part of the Section 404 permitting process, compensatory wetland mitigation in the form of wetland enhancement, restoration, or construction may be required to off-set impacts sustained under a Section 404 permit. Under normal circumstances, compensatory mitigation is a relatively straight forward process; however, issues associated with mitigation become more complex at sites undergoing remediation under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), because on-site response/remedial actions involving dredged and fill material are not subject to the formal Section 404 permitting process. These actions are conducted in accordance with the substantive permitting requirements of the ACOE's Nationwide and individual permitting programs. Wetland mitigatory requirements are determined through application of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) 040(b) (1) Guidelines promulgated in 40 CFR Part 230 and are implemented through compliance with substantive permitting requirements during the conduct of response/remedial actions. A programmatic approach for implementing wetland mitigatory requirements is being developed at a former US Department of Energy (DOE) uranium refinery undergoing CERCLA remediation in southwestern Ohio. The approach is designed to define the regulatory mechanism that will be used to integrate CWA driven wetland mitigatory requirements into the CERCLA process

  11. Communication architecture of an early warning system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Angermann

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses aspects of communication architecture for early warning systems (EWS in general and gives details of the specific communication architecture of an early warning system against tsunamis. While its sensors are the "eyes and ears" of a warning system and enable the system to sense physical effects, its communication links and terminals are its "nerves and mouth" which transport measurements and estimates within the system and eventually warnings towards the affected population. Designing the communication architecture of an EWS against tsunamis is particularly challenging. Its sensors are typically very heterogeneous and spread several thousand kilometers apart. They are often located in remote areas and belong to different organizations. Similarly, the geographic spread of the potentially affected population is wide. Moreover, a failure to deliver a warning has fatal consequences. Yet, the communication infrastructure is likely to be affected by the disaster itself. Based on an analysis of the criticality, vulnerability and availability of communication means, we describe the design and implementation of a communication system that employs both terrestrial and satellite communication links. We believe that many of the issues we encountered during our work in the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009 on the design and implementation communication architecture are also relevant for other types of warning systems. With this article, we intend to share our insights and lessons learned.

  12. New radiation warning sign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mac Kenzie, C.; Mason, C.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: Radiation accidents involving orphan radioactive sources have happened as a result of people not recognizing the radiation trefoil symbol or from being illiterate and not understanding a warning statement on the radiation source. The trefoil symbol has no inherent meaning to people that have not been instructed in its use. A new radiation warning sign, to supplement the existing trefoil symbol, has been developed to address these issues. Human Factors experts, United Nations member states, and members of the international community of radiation protection professionals were consulted for input on the design of a new radiation warning sign that would clearly convey the message of 'Danger- Run Away- Stay Away' when in close proximity to a dangerous source of radiation. Cultural differences of perception on various warning symbols were taken into consideration and arrays of possible signs were developed. The signs were initially tested in international children for identification with the desired message and response. Based on these test results and further input from radiation protection professionals, five warning signs were identified as the most successful in conveying the desired message and response. These five signs were tested internationally in eleven countries by a professional survey company to determine the best sign for this purpose. The conclusion of the international testing is presented. The new radiation warning sign is currently a draft ISO standard under committee review. The design of the propose d radiation warning sign and the proposed implementation strategy outlined in the draft ISO standard is presented. (authors)

  13. Early Warning System Ghana: how to successfully implement a disaster early warning system in a data scarce region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.

  14. Two whisker motor areas in the rat cortex: evidence from thalamocortical connections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Hisham; Jain, Neeraj

    2014-02-15

    In primates, the motor cortex consists of at least seven different areas, which are involved in movement planning, coordination, initiation, and execution. However, for rats, only the primary motor cortex has been well described. A rostrally located second motor area has been proposed, but its extent, organization, and even definitive existence remain uncertain. Only a rostral forelimb area (RFA) has been definitively described, besides few reports of a rostral hindlimb area. We have previously proposed existence of a second whisker area, which we termed the rostral whisker area (RWA), based on its differential response to intracortical microstimulation compared with the caudal whisker area (CWA) in animals under deep anesthesia (Tandon et al. [2008] Eur J Neurosci 27:228). To establish that RWA is distinct from the caudally contiguous CWA, we determined sources of thalamic inputs to the two proposed whisker areas. Sources of inputs to RFA, caudal forelimb area (CFA), and caudal hindlimb region were determined for comparison. The results show that RWA and CWA can be distinguished based on differences in their thalamic inputs. RWA receives major projections from mediodorsal and ventromedial nuclei, whereas the major projections to CWA are from the ventral anterior, ventrolateral, and posterior nuclei. Moreover, the thalamic nuclei that provide major inputs to RWA are the same as for RFA, and the nuclei projecting to CWA are same as for CFA. The results suggest that rats have a second rostrally located motor area with RWA and RFA as its constituents. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    , but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties...... areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions...

  16. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  17. Tsunami early warning and decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Steinmetz

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen

  18. Human Response to Emergency Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, J.

    2009-12-01

    Almost every day people evacuate from their homes, businesses or other sites, even ships, in response to actual or predicted threats or hazards. Evacuation is the primary protective action utilized in large-scale emergencies such as hurricanes, floods, tornados, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, or wildfires. Although often precautionary, protecting human lives by temporally relocating populations before or during times of threat remains a major emergency management strategy. One of the most formidable challenges facing emergency officials is evacuating residents for a fast-moving and largely unpredictable event such as a wildfire or a local tsunami. How to issue effective warnings to those at risk in time for residents to take appropriate action is an on-going problem. To do so, some communities have instituted advanced communications systems that include reverse telephone call-down systems or other alerting systems to notify at-risk residents of imminent threats. This presentation examines the effectiveness of using reverse telephone call-down systems for warning San Diego residents of wildfires in the October of 2007. This is the first systematic study conducted on this topic and is based on interviews with 1200 households in the evacuation areas.

  19. Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pei-Yang Lin

    2011-01-01

    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  20. The potential of Sentinel 2 and PROBA-V images for supporting early warnings of particulate matter pollution episodes in Ploiesti urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunea, Daniel; Iordache, Stefania; Pohoata, Alin; Lungu, Emil; Ianache, Cornel; Ianache, Radu

    2016-04-01

    One of the major air quality stressors in the urban area is particulate matter (PM). PM includes dust, dirt, soot, smoke, and liquid droplets emitted into the air by various sources such as vehicles, factories, and construction activities. PM has been linked to asthma and other respiratory illnesses. Inner-city residents need timely access to air quality synthetic indicators for protecting their respiratory health. Access to air quality forecasts and real-time data can allow residents, especially children and elders, to reduce their exposure when PM levels in conjunction with other pollutants are of potential concern. Ploiesti city is an important industrial center, which experienced a rapid economic growth in the last decade. Its industrial activity is concentrated especially on the oil production and refining industry. Ploiesti is the only city in Europe surrounded by four oil refineries. Monitoring campaigns were carried out in 12 sampling points during the "rush" hours (7.00-12.00 a.m. and 3.00-7.00 p.m.) to assess the potential exposure to high PM levels using an optical portable monitoring system, which is measuring fine and submicrometric fractions with a laser beam (DusttrakTM DRX 8533EP with environmental enclosure). Inverse distance weighting algorithm was used to obtain potential isolines of concentrations at town's scale in GIS environment. NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), respectively the backward trajectory type, was used to overview the contribution of long range transport from the most probable source region of the significant episodes characterized by PM rising of concentrations. Extraction of radiometric indicators from historical databases with multispectral images allowed the spatiotemporal characterization of land use and cloud distribution i.e. Sentinel 2 and PROBA-V (allowing specific characterization of NDVI, which provided canopy and surface reflectance in the pilot area). Resulted data were

  1. Storm Warnings for Cuba

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet : order@rand.org. al Accesion For "Ni %&’ Storm WarningsDTI’ TAB E03 --- - - -for...reaction leading to an uncontrol- lable burgeoning of private entrepreneurial activity. As one observer 14See Acuerdo del Buro Politico , "Para llevar a...34 10Comisi6n de Relaciones Internacionales, Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, Datos, Reflexiones y Argumentos Sobre la Actual Situaci6n de Cuba, n.p

  2. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  3. Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Marchi

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows, their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and nonstructural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche

  4. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be tested for the prescribed warning time at least once every 12 months and when the warning system is...

  5. Connected motorcycle crash warning interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-15

    Crash warning systems have been deployed in the high-end vehicle market segment for some time and are trickling down to additional motor vehicle industry segments each year. The motorcycle segment, however, has no deployed crash warning system to dat...

  6. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  7. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions......, but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties......What does it take to recognise and prevent hazards with international causes and consequences? How can we handle the risks related to financial instability, terrorism, pandemics, air pollution, flooding and climate change? The book brings together scholars and senior practitioners from different...

  8. Cannabis Users' Recommended Warnings for Packages of Legally Sold Cannabis: An Australia-Centered Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malouff, John M; Johnson, Caitlin E; Rooke, Sally E

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Although cannabis use creates health risks, governments have recently been legalizing either medical use or leisure use. These governments can mandate health warnings on cannabis packages. Prior research examined recommended warnings of cannabis experts. The aim of this study was to obtain suggested cannabis health and safety warnings from cannabis users. Methods: We used a media release, Facebook postings, and announcements in university classes to seek individuals who had used cannabis at least once according to their own report. Using online data collection software that keeps participants anonymous, we asked the individuals to suggest a warning that governments could mandate on cannabis packages. Results: In total, 288 users suggested warnings. Categorizing the warnings into content categories led to six warning topics: (1) risk of harm to mental health and psychological functioning; (2) risk of operating machinery while under the influence; (3) short-term physical side effects; (4) responsible use; (5) long-term negative physical effects; and (6) dependence, addiction, or abuse. The user-suggested warnings overlapped with six expert-recommended warnings identified in prior survey research and included two content areas that did not feature in expert-recommended warnings: short-term physical side effects and the importance of responsible use. Conclusions: The results are consistent with prior findings that some youths perceive cannabis use as potentially harmful. The current findings provide possible new content for warnings on cannabis packages.

  9. Radiation early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitzer, C.; Kloesch, W.; Stadtmann, H.

    1993-01-01

    A prototype station for a Radiation Early Warning Network has been designed and set up at the Austrian Research Centre Seibersdorf. This unit was developed to measure all relevant parameters necessary to detect and track radioactive contamination at an early stage. The station consists of the following components: Radiation measuring channel for ambient gamma dose rate. Meteorological measurement channels for air temperature and humidity, wind direction and wind speed, and precipitation. Data processing and storage unit. The system is capable of unattended operation and data acquisition even under adverse environmental conditions. Connection to a central processing platform may be achieved via leased line, dial up over public switched telephone network (PSTN), or radio-frequency transmission. The remote station will continue acquiring and storing data for at least a month, even if the communications link is broken. Multiple stations can be combined to form a network, providing detailed information about radiological and meteorological data at each site. Thus increased ambient radiation levels may be discovered, tracked, and forecasted based on calculations using current and local weather data

  10. Optimization of Evacuation Warnings Prior to a Hurricane Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dian Sun

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The key purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that optimization of evacuation warnings by time period and impacted zone is crucial for efficient evacuation of an area impacted by a hurricane. We assume that people behave in a manner consistent with the warnings they receive. By optimizing the issuance of hurricane evacuation warnings, one can control the number of evacuees at different time intervals to avoid congestion in the process of evacuation. The warning optimization model is applied to a case study of Hurricane Sandy using the study region of Brooklyn. We first develop a model for shelter assignment and then use this outcome to model hurricane evacuation warning optimization, which prescribes an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees. A significant technical contribution is the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the nonlinear formulation, which is shown to be optimal for the case of a single evacuation zone with a single evacuee type case, while it does not guarantee optimality for multiple zones under unusual circumstances. A significant applied contribution is the demonstration of an interface of the evacuation warning method with a public transportation scheme to facilitate evacuation of a car-less population. This heuristic we employ can be readily adapted to the case where response rate is a function of evacuation number in prior periods and other variable factors. This element is also explored in the context of our experiment.

  11. Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yangbo; Zhou, Haolan; Zhang, Hui; Du, Guoming; Zhou, Jinhui

    2015-05-01

    In the past decades, China has observed rapid urbanization, the nation's urban population reached 50% in 2000, and is still in steady increase. Rapid urbanization in China has an adverse impact on urban hydrological processes, particularly in increasing the urban flood risks and causing serious urban flooding losses. Urban flooding also increases health risks such as causing epidemic disease break out, polluting drinking water and damaging the living environment. In the highly urbanized area, non-engineering measurement is the main way for managing urban flood risk, such as flood risk warning. There is no mature method and pilot study for urban flood risk warning, the purpose of this study is to propose the urban flood risk warning method for the rapidly urbanized Chinese cities. This paper first presented an urban flood forecasting model, which produces urban flood inundation index for urban flood risk warning. The model has 5 modules. The drainage system and grid dividing module divides the whole city terrain into drainage systems according to its first-order river system, and delineates the drainage system into grids based on the spatial structure with irregular gridding technique; the precipitation assimilation module assimilates precipitation for every grids which is used as the model input, which could either be the radar based precipitation estimation or interpolated one from rain gauges; runoff production module classifies the surface into pervious and impervious surface, and employs different methods to calculate the runoff respectively; surface runoff routing module routes the surface runoff and determines the inundation index. The routing on surface grid is calculated according to the two dimensional shallow water unsteady flow algorithm, the routing on land channel and special channel is calculated according to the one dimensional unsteady flow algorithm. This paper then proposed the urban flood risk warning method that is called DPSIR model based

  12. A Possible Method for Warning of House Price Bubble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Yanxiang Gu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Metropolitan areas that had the most house price inflation between 1998 and 2006 and the highest price to income ratios are characterized by strong income growth and high population density. Areas with the highest price to income ratios in 2006 and lowest population density suffered the largest percentage price declines after the bubble burst. An equation is established for estimating warning level against house price bubble, and the estimated warning could leave 19 percent room and more than two years of time for action.

  13. EVALUATING EFFECTIVENESS OF MOBILE BROWSER SECURITY WARNINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronak Shah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work precisely evaluates whether browser security warnings are as ineffective as proposed by popular sentiments and past writings. This research used different kinds of Android mobile browsers as well as desktop browsers to evaluate security warnings. Security experts and developers should give emphasis on making a user aware of security warnings and should not neglect aim of communicating this to users. Security experts and system architects should emphasis the goal of communicating security information to end users. In most of the browsers, security warnings are not emphasized, and browsers simply do not show warnings, or there are a number of ways to hide those warnings of malicious sites. This work precisely finds that how inconsistent browsers really are in prompting security warnings. In particular, majority of the modern mobile web browsers are vulnerable to these security threats. We find inconsistency in SSL warnings among web browsers. Based on this work, we make recommendations for warning designers and researchers.

  14. Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

    2015-01-01

    Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

  15. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  16. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    context has been worked out. The generated results contribute significantly in the fields of (1) warning decision and warning levels, (2) warning dissemination and warning message content, (3) early warning chain planning, (4) increasing response capabilities and protective systems, (5) emergency relief and (6) enhancing communities' awareness and preparedness towards tsunami threats. Additionally examples will be given on the potentials of an operational use of risk information in early warning systems as first experiences exist for the tsunami early warning center in Jakarta, Indonesia. Beside this the importance of linking national level early warning information with tsunami risk information available at the local level (e.g. linking warning message information on expected intensity with respective tsunami hazard zone maps at community level for effective evacuation) will be demonstrated through experiences gained in three pilot areas in Indonesia. The presentation seeks to provide new insights on benefits using risk information in early warning and will provide further evidence that practical use of risk information is an important and indispensable component of end-to-end early warning.

  17. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Storm Wallets

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is responsible for typhoon forecasts and warnings for the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. After each storm, the JTWC...

  18. Vantage point - Early warning flaws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swinden, Donna

    2014-08-28

    USING AN EARLY warning score (EWS) system should improve the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. Under such a system, a score is allocated to each of six physiological measurements including respiratory rate and oxygen saturations, which are aggregated to produce an overall score. An aggregated score of seven or higher prompts nursing staff to refer a patient for emergency assessment.

  19. Software for ASS-500 based early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipinski, P.; Isajenko, K.

    1998-01-01

    The article describes the software for the management of early warning system based on ASS-500 station. The software can communicate with the central computer using TCP/IP protocol. This allows remote control of the station through modem or local area network connection. The article describes Windows based user interface of the program

  20. 30 CFR 56.14214 - Train warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above the surrounding noise level shall be sounded— (a) Immediately prior to moving trains; (b) When trains... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Train warnings. 56.14214 Section 56.14214...

  1. 30 CFR 57.14214 - Train warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above the surrounding noise level shall be sounded— (a) Immediately prior to moving trains; (b) When... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Train warnings. 57.14214 Section 57.14214...

  2. Time-to-impact estimation in passive missile warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şahıngıl, Mehmet Cihan

    2017-05-01

    A missile warning system can detect the incoming missile threat(s) and automatically cue the other Electronic Attack (EA) systems in the suit, such as Directed Infrared Counter Measure (DIRCM) system and/or Counter Measure Dispensing System (CMDS). Most missile warning systems are currently based on passive sensor technology operating in either Solar Blind Ultraviolet (SBUV) or Midwave Infrared (MWIR) bands on which there is an intensive emission from the exhaust plume of the threatening missile. Although passive missile warning systems have some clear advantages over pulse-Doppler radar (PDR) based active missile warning systems, they show poorer performance in terms of time-to-impact (TTI) estimation which is critical for optimizing the countermeasures and also "passive kill assessment". In this paper, we consider this problem, namely, TTI estimation from passive measurements and present a TTI estimation scheme which can be used in passive missile warning systems. Our problem formulation is based on Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The algorithm uses the area parameter of the threat plume which is derived from the used image frame.

  3. Superfund TIO videos. Set A. Regulatory overview - CERCLA's relationship to other programs: RCRA, Title III, UST, CWA, SDWA. Part 1. Audio-Visual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The videotape is divided into five sections. Section 1 provides definitions and historical information on both the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). The four types of RCRA regulatory programs - Subtitles C, D, I, and J - are described. Treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) and recycling facilities are also discussed. Section 2 discusses the history behind the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (Title III). The four major provisions of Title III, which are emergency planning, emergency release notification, community right-to-know reporting, and the toxic chemical release inventory are covered. Section 3 outlines the UST program covering notification, record keeping, and the UST Trust Fund. Section 4 outlines the six major provisions of the Clean Water Act (CWA): water quality, pretreatment, prevention of oil and hazardous substance discharges, responses to oil and hazardous substance discharges, discharges of hazardous substances into the ocean, and dredge and fill. Section 5 explains the purpose, regulations, and standards of the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). Specific issues such as underground injection, sole source aquifers, and lead contamination are discussed

  4. Alcohol warnings in TV beer advertisements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, M D; Domenech, M M

    1995-05-01

    Mandated warnings are among the few steps Congress has taken to influence the use of legal substances such as alcohol. The usefulness of such warnings in discouraging abuse of alcohol is, however, controversial. This study examines the impact of televised warnings on probable antecedents of belief change not examined in previous research: confidence in beliefs about beer risks or benefits, and cognitive responses to the advertisements. The present study (N = 75 male and female college students) tests four of the warnings recommended in Senate Bill 674 (1993--the "Thurmond bill") edited into randomly sampled television beer advertisements, using a between-subjects treatment-and-control experimental design. The four advertisements or advertisement/warning pairs were counterbalanced and analyzed as a repeated measures factor. The study indicated, as hypothesized, that subjects exposed to warnings tended to have less confidence in their generally skeptical assessments of beer risks--a likely precursor to belief change in resistant populations. Repeated exposure to the advertisements alone also appeared to lead to increased confidence in generally positive assessments of beer benefits, whereas repeated exposure to warnings led to decreased confidence in such assessments. Repeated exposure to warnings also may have primed negative reactions to subsequent beer advertisements. These results suggest mechanisms by which alcohol warnings may over time influence beliefs. Measures used here may serve as useful criterion variables in future studies on warnings. Further attention to optimizing warning content and presentation is recommended.

  5. Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Ronald L; Ash, Kevin D; Bowser, Gregg C

    2018-02-01

    Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large-casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado-related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information-seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information-seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  7. Operators in Yemen draw warning from Saudis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that foreign oil companies with concessions in northern Yemen have been drawn into a border dispute between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. At least six companies received letters from the Saudi government warning them that steps, as yet undefined, will be taken if exploration extends into disputed areas. A second territorial dispute also appears to be brewing in the region. Iran has ejected United Arab Emirates nationals from the island of Abu Musa in the Persian Gulf, which is jointly administered by Iran and Sharjah, one of the emirates. The U.A.E. government has reported the situation to the Gulf Cooperation Council, triggering a denial from Iran that anyone has been deported from the island

  8. Communicating risk information and warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mileti, D. S.

    1990-01-01

    Major advances have occurred over the last 20 years about how to effectively communicate risk information and warnings to the public. These lessons have been hard won. Knowledge has mounted on the finding from social scientific studies of risk communication failures, successes and those which fell somewhere in between. Moreover, the last 2 decades have borne witness to the brith, cultivation, and blossoming of information sharing between those physical scientists who discover new information about risk and those communcation scientists who trace its diffusion and then measure pbulic reaction. 

  9. Flash floods warning technique based on wireless communication networks data

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Noam; Alpert, Pinhas; Messer, Hagit

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods can occur throughout or subsequent to rainfall events, particularly in cases where the precipitation is of high-intensity. Unfortunately, each year these floods cause severe property damage and heavy casualties. At present, there are no sufficient real time flash flood warning facilities found to cope with this phenomenon. Here we show the tremendous potential of flash floods advanced warning based on precipitation measurements of commercial microwave links. As was recently shown, wireless communication networks supply high resolution precipitation measurements at ground level while often being situated in flood prone areas, covering large parts of these hazardous regions. We present the flash flood warning potential of the wireless communication system for two different cases when floods occurred at the Judean desert and at the northern Negev in Israel. In both cases, an advanced warning regarding the hazard could have been announced based on this system. • This research was supported by THE ISRAEL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (grant No. 173/08). This work was also supported by a grant from the Yeshaya Horowitz Association, Jerusalem. Additional support was given by the PROCEMA-BMBF project and by the GLOWA-JR BMBF project.

  10. The new Euskalmet coastal-maritime warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaztelumendi, Santiago; Egaña, Joseba; Liria, Pedro; Gonzalez, Manuel; Aranda, José Antonio; Anitua, Pedro

    2016-06-01

    This work presents the main characteristics of the Basque Meteorology Agency (Euskalmet) maritime-coastal risk warning system, with special emphasis on the latest updates, including a clear differentiation on specific warning messages addressing sea conditions for navigation purposes in the first 2 nautical miles, and expected coastal impacts. Some details of the warning bulletin for maritime and coastal risk situations are also presented, together with other communication products and strategies used in coastal and maritime severe episodes at the Basque coast. Today, three different aspects are included in the coastal-maritime risk warning system in Basque Country, related to the main potential severe events that affecting coastal activities. - "Galerna" risk relates to a sudden wind reversal that can severely affect coastal navigation and recreational activities. - "Navigation" risk relates to severe sea state conditions for 0-2 miles, affecting different navigation activities. - "Coastal impact" risk relates to adverse wave characteristics and tidal surges that induce flooding events and different impacts in littoral areas.

  11. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana de Oliveira Freitas Miranda

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. Method: a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. Results: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. Conclusion: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied.

  12. Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.

    2017-12-01

    After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.

  13. Crisis management and warning procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valérie November

    2009-03-01

    territoriale du risque s’avère nécessaire.Based on two flood events that recently affected new housing areas in very different political, organisational and hydrological contexts, this article examines the practices of actors involved in emergency and crisis situations in Switzerland. In both cases, the actors are identified – through their role and their position in the various procedures related to crisis management – and an inventory is made of the documents used. The study examines how the flood events were managed, identifies the organisational changes that followed the crises, and determines how the risk was conceived and to what extent it was formalised by the different actors both before and after the floods. Finally new forecasting and warning procedures that were set up following the events are described. The study shows that floods have a decisive impact on the production of knowledge, but that this phenomenon varies according to the actors. Events such as floods also sometimes reveal the existence of "latent" knowledge, or knowledge that is available but has not yet been integrated into institutional procedures. In terms of both forecasting and crisis management, these events also provide the opportunity to test information channels and to identify and correct any problems relating to organisation, cooperation or the reliability of means of communication. Among other things, the risks and crises related to flooding modify the dynamics and policies of the local area as a result of readjustments in the networks of actors. The introduction of emergency and crisis management measures appears more effective, however, than the reorganisation of planning and development procedures, a process which generally takes a lot longer. Nevertheless, since the recollection of events tends to fade with time, it is important that risks find a more concrete form of spatial expression on the landscape.

  14. The pathway to earthquake early warning in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team

    2013-05-01

    The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological

  15. Pictorial warnings on cigarette packets: Effectiveness and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pictorial warnings and their ability to reduce the prevalence of cigarette smoking among youth in Egypt. Through semi-structured in-depth interviews with a sample of cigarette smokers, the research argues that various social, cultural, and economic factors constrain the effectiveness of pictorial warnings. A key finding is that ...

  16. Radiation warning system in Slovenia (ROSS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arh, S.

    1996-01-01

    Recognizing that a radiological accident may have a widespread effect, the Slovenian government has decided to establish an early warning system. The aim of it is to detect any incident (domestic or foreign) involving radioactivity as fast as possible, to initiate appropriate measures, and to give immediate warning to the population

  17. Vrancea early warning system for Bucharest and industrial objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, C.; Marmureanu, A.; Grigore, A.; Tataru, D.

    2005-01-01

    Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km.Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk given by strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)

  18. Vrancea early warning system for Bucharest and industrial objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wenzel, Friedemann; Bonjer, K. P.

    2004-01-01

    Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km. Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the mega cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk due to strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and issue warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)

  19. Reducing online identity disclosure using warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Sandra; Zhu, Feng; Kolimi, Swapna

    2014-09-01

    In an experimental design, we tested whether written warnings can reduce the amount of identity information exposure online. A psychological attack on information privacy that has been shown to be effective in previous research was launched. This attack took advantage of the fact that people respond to certain types of requests in a relatively automatic, or mindless, fashion. The experiment manipulated the word that was used in the alert header: "warning", "caution", or "hazard". All warnings proved to be effective in reducing disclosure, but "hazard" proved to be most effective. Also warnings were more effective in reducing disclosure of driver's license numbers than email addresses. The discussion (a) provides tentative conclusions why these patterns were obtained, (b) suggests how to design warnings in cyber-environments, and (c) addresses future possibilities for research on this topic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  20. ATTACK WARNING: Costs to Modernize NORAD's Computer System Significantly Understated

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cross, F

    1991-01-01

    ...) Integrated Tactical Warning and Attack Assessment (ITW/AA) system. These subsystems provide critical strategic surveillance and attack warning and assessment information to United States and Canadian leaders...

  1. Floods in 2002 and 2013: comparing flood warnings and emergency measures from the perspective of affected parties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Pech, Ina; Schröter, Kai; Müller, Meike; Thieken, Annegret

    2016-04-01

    Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. However, early warning is only helpful if the flood-endangered parties are reached by the warning and if they know how to react effectively. Finding suitable methods for communicating helpful warnings to the "last mile" remains a challenge, but not much information is available. Surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany, asking affected private households and companies about warnings they received and emergency measures they undertook. Results show, that in 2002 early warning did not work well: in too many areas warnings came too late or were too imprecise and many people (27%) and companies (45%) did not receive a flood warning. Afterwards, the warning systems were significantly improved, so that in 2013 only a small share of the affected people (7%) and companies (7 %) was not reached by any warning. Additionally, private households and companies were hardly aware of the flood risk in the Elbe catchment before 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. For instance, in 2002 only 14% of private households clearly knew how to protect themselves and their assets when the warning reached them, in 2013 this fraction was 46 %. Although the share of companies which had an emergency plan in place had increased from 10 % in 2002 to 26 % in 2013, and the share of those conducting regular emergency exercises had increased from 4 % to 13 %, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Therefore, integrated early warning systems from monitoring through to the reaction of the affected parties as well as effective risk and emergency communication need continuous further improvement to protect people and mitigate residual risks in case of floods.

  2. Impact of Waterpipe Tobacco Pack Health Warnings on Waterpipe Smoking Attitudes: A Qualitative Analysis among Regular Users in London.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawad, Mohammed; Bakir, Ali; Ali, Mohammed; Grant, Aimee

    2015-01-01

    Despite the rise in prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking, it has received little legislative enforcement from governing bodies, especially in the area of health warning labels. Twenty regular waterpipe tobacco smokers from London took part in five focus groups discussing the impact of waterpipe tobacco pack health warnings on their attitudes towards waterpipe smoking. We presented them with existing and mock waterpipe tobacco products, designed to be compliant with current and future UK/EU legislation. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Participants felt packs were less attractive and health warnings were more impactful as health warnings increased in size and packaging became less branded. However, participants highlighted their lack of exposure to waterpipe tobacco pack health warnings due to the inherent nature of waterpipe smoking, that is, smoking in a café with the apparatus already prepacked by staff. Health warnings at the point of consumption had more reported impact than health warnings at the point of sale. Waterpipe tobacco pack health warnings are likely to be effective if compliant with existing laws and exposed to end-users. Legislations should be reviewed to extend health warning labels to waterpipe accessories, particularly the apparatus, and to waterpipe-serving premises.

  3. Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

  4. Flood forecasting and early warning system for Dungun River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hafiz, I; Sidek, L M; Basri, H; Fukami, K; Hanapi, M N; Livia, L; Nor, M D

    2013-01-01

    Floods can bring such disasters to the affected dweller due to loss of properties, crops and even deaths. The damages to properties and crops by the severe flooding are occurred due to the increase in the economic value of the properties as well as the extent of the flood. Flood forecasting and warning system is one of the examples of the non-structural measures which can give early warning to the affected people. People who live near the flood-prone areas will be warned so that they can evacuate themselves and their belongings before the arrival of the flood. This can considerably reduce flood loss and damage and above all, the loss of human lives. Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is a runoff analysis model converting rainfall into runoff for a given river basin. The simulation can be done using either ground or satellite-based rainfall to produce calculated discharge within the river. The calculated discharge is used to generate the flood inundation map within the catchment area for the selected flood event using Infowork RS.

  5. LED-Based High-Voltage Lines Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eldar MUSA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available LED-based system, running with the current of high-voltage lines and converting the current flowing through the line into the light by using a toroid transformer, has been developed. The transformer’s primary winding is constituted by the high voltage power line. Toroidal core consists of two equal parts and the secondary windings are evenly placed on these two parts. The system is mounted on the high-voltage lines as a clamp. The secondary winding ends are connected in series by the connector on the clamp. LEDs are supplied by the voltage at the ends of secondary. Current flowing through highvoltage transmission lines is converted to voltage by the toroidal transformer and the light emitting LEDs are supplied with this voltage. The theory of the conversion of the current flowing through the line into the light is given. The system, running with the current of the line and converting the current into the light, has been developed. System has many application areas such as warning high voltage lines (warning winches to not hinder the high-voltage lines when working under the lines, warning planes to not touch the high-voltage lines, remote measurement of high-voltage line currents, and local illumination of the line area

  6. Upgrade of the early warning system in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarvari, A.; Cindro, M.; Krizman, M.; Mitic, D.

    2003-01-01

    The main task of the Early Warning System in Slovenia is to warn the competent authorities of the increase of external radiation. Only an efficient Ewes can cope with the situation that we have in case of nuclear or radiation accident. For such purposes the measuring locations have to fulfil some basic radiation monitoring criteria (population density, distance from NPP, precipitation, land use). In this article the results of each criterion as well as the total set is described. The results of the applied criteria are presented with colour contour images. The purpose of this article is to allocate the critical areas on the territory of Slovenia that have to be considered in final determination of the appropriate measuring locations. (author)

  7. Monitoring and Warning of Landslides Based On Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudhbir, Y.

    Management issues of landslide hazards assume much greater significance in poorest segments of society living in landslide risk prone hilly areas in developing countries. Analysis of the temporal recurrence of landslides shows that disastrous events occur with a frequency higher than the social and economic capacity of these societies to recover from previous events. In the context of landslide hazard management in In- dian Himalayan states this problem assumes much greater significance. Majority of the population lives on hill slopes which experience repeated landsliding activity es- pecially during the summer monsoon rains. Considering the high cost of structural control measures and the lack of necessary spatial database in respect of Quaternary geology, detailed topography and geohydrology etc., there is an acute need to develop a monitoring and warning system which is economical, easy to operate and does not require high technological inputs. Since most of the landslides in these areas are triggered by high incidence of rain, it appears attractive to explore development of a monitoring and warning network based on critical rainfall intensity thresholds. Such an option for management of landslide hazards would also provide useful meteorological data required for assessment of wa- ter resources, soil loss due to erosion, agricultural practices and flood incidence. In this paper, available approaches to the prediction and warning of landslide based on rainfall data will be critically reviewed. Various criteria recommended in litera- ture for threshold rainfall values in rain induced ground movements/failures would be compared and these relationships will be contrasted with the limited data available for the Indian Himalayan landslides. A plan for a network of automatic rain gauges and a suitable warning system will be discussed.

  8. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The first system demonstrator has been designed and implemented to support plausible scenarios demonstrating the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC). The feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes in a hypothetical natural crisis situation caused by a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Developments of the system are based to the largest extent on free and open source software (FOSS) components and industry standards. Emphasis has been and will be made on leveraging open source technologies that support mature system architecture models wherever appropriate. All open source software produced is foreseen to be published on a publicly available software repository thus allowing others to reuse results achieved and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. This live demonstration is linked with the talk "TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management Demonstrator for Tsunamis" (EGU2012-7275) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.7/ESSI1.7).

  9. Application of a Tsunami Warning Message Metric to refine NOAA NWS Tsunami Warning Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D.; Sorensen, J.; Whitmore, P.

    2013-12-01

    In 2010, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) funded a three year project to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program. One of three primary requirements of the grant was to make improvements to tsunami warning messages of the NWS' two Tsunami Warning Centers- the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. We conducted focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa) to qualitatively asses information needs in tsunami warning messages using WCATWC tsunami messages for the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami event. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a tsunami warning message metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. Using findings from this project and findings from a parallel NWS Warning Tiger Team study led by T. Nicolini, the WCATWC implemented the first of two phases of revisions to their warning messages in November 2012. A second phase of additional changes, which will fully implement the redesign of messages based on the metric, is in progress. The resulting messages will reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness. Here we present the message metric; evidence-based rational for message factors; and examples of previous, existing and proposed messages.

  10. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2011)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  11. FDA Warns About Stem Cell Therapies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home For Consumers Consumer Updates FDA Warns About Stem Cell Therapies Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing ... see the boxed section below for more advice. Stem Cell Uses and FDA Regulation The FDA has the ...

  12. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2006)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  13. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  14. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2007)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  15. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  16. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2009)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  17. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2010)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  18. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2008)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  19. Caltrans fog detection and warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) has implemented a fog detection and warning system on Highway 99 near Fresno. The entire central valley region is susceptible to Tule fog, which can reduce visibility tremendously, sometimes to n...

  20. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  1. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  2. 75 FR 51661 - Amendment of the Pacific High and Low Offshore Airspace Areas; California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ... contained the exclusion of active warning area airspace; it was brought to our attention that it was not necessary to exclude active warning areas in the description since active warning areas are excluded by... minimal. Since this is a routine matter that will only affect air traffic procedures and air navigation...

  3. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

    2015-10-28

    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

  4. Structure health assessment and warning system (SHAWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Daniel M.; Kim, Keehoon; Mapar, Jalal

    2008-03-01

    We are developing a Structure Health Assessment and Warning System (SHAWS) based on building displacement measurements and wireless communication. SHAWS will measure and predict the stability/instability of a building, determine whether it is safe for emergency responders to enter during an emergency, and provide individual warnings on the condition of the structure. SHAWS incorporates remote sensing nodes (RSNs) installed on the exterior frame of a building. Each RSN includes a temperature sensor, a three-axis accelerometer making static-acceleration measurements, and a ZigBee wireless system (IEEE 802.15.4). The RSNs will be deployed remotely using an air cannon delivery system, with each RSN having an innovative adhesive structure for fast (<10 min) and strong installation under emergency conditions. Once the building has moved past a threshold (~0.25 in./building story), a warning will be issued to emergency responders. In addition to the RSNs, SHAWS will include a base station located on an emergency responder's primary vehicle, a PDA for mobile data display to guide responders, and individual warning modules that can be worn by each responder. The individual warning modules will include visual and audio indicators with a ZigBee receiver to provide the proper degree of warning to each responder.

  5. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

    2015-01-01

    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

  6. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

  7. Perceptions and acceptability of pictorial health warning labels vs text only--a cross-sectional study in Lao PDR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sychareun, Vanphanom; Hansana, Visanou; Phengsavanh, Alongkone; Chaleunvong, Kongmany; Tomson, Tanja

    2015-10-28

    In Lao PDR, health warnings were first introduced with printed warning messages on the side of the cigarette package in 1993 and again in 2004. Lao PDR same year ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) but has not yet implemented pictorial health warnings. This paper aims to examine the perception and opinion of policymakers on "text-only" and "pictorial" health warnings and to understand lay people's perceptions on current health warnings and their opinions on the recommended types of health warnings. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods were used in this cross-sectional study conducted in 2008. A purposive sample of 15 policymakers, and a representative sample of 1360 smokers and non-smokers were recruited. A range of different areas were covered including consumer attitudes towards current and proposed cigarette package design, views on health warning messages on the flip/slide and inserts, and views on the relative importance of the size, content and pictures of health warning messages. Descriptive statistics and content analysis were used. Policy makers and survey respondents said that the current health warning messages were inappropriate, ineffective, and too small in size. All respondents perceived pictorial health warnings as a potentially powerful element that could be added to the messages that can communicate quickly, and dramatically. The majority of policymakers and survey respondents strongly supported the implementation of pictorial health warnings. The non-smokers agreed that the graphic pictorial health warnings were generally more likely than written health warnings to stimulate thinking about the health risks of smoking, by conveying potential health effects, increasing and reinforcing awareness of the negative health effect of smoking, aiding memorability of the health effects and arousing fear of smoking among smokers. The study suggested that current warnings are too small and that content is

  8. Toward a cross-border early-warning system for Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Stankiewicz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly expanding urban areas in Central Asia are increasingly vulnerable to seismic risk; but at present, no earthquake early warning (EEW systems exist in the region despite their successful implementation in other earthquake-prone areas. Such systems aim to provide short (seconds to tens of seconds warnings of impending disaster, enabling the first risk mitigation and damage control steps to be taken. This study presents the feasibility of a large scale cross-border regional system for Central Asian countries. Genetic algorithms are used to design efficient EEW networks, computing optimal station locations and trigger thresholds in recorded ground acceleration. Installation of such systems within 3 years aims to both reducing the endemic lack of strong motion data in Central Asia that is limiting the possibility of improving seismic hazard assessment, and at providing the first regional earthquake early warning system in the area.

  9. NOAA/WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PACIFIC OCEAN RESPONSE CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garry Rogers

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or pre- computed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite.Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic.This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps. As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

  10. An Advanced Method to Apply Multiple Rainfall Thresholds for Urban Flood Warnings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiun-Huei Jang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Issuing warning information to the public when rainfall exceeds given thresholds is a simple and widely-used method to minimize flood risk; however, this method lacks sophistication when compared with hydrodynamic simulation. In this study, an advanced methodology is proposed to improve the warning effectiveness of the rainfall threshold method for urban areas through deterministic-stochastic modeling, without sacrificing simplicity and efficiency. With regards to flooding mechanisms, rainfall thresholds of different durations are divided into two groups accounting for flooding caused by drainage overload and disastrous runoff, which help in grading the warning level in terms of emergency and severity when the two are observed together. A flood warning is then classified into four levels distinguished by green, yellow, orange, and red lights in ascending order of priority that indicate the required measures, from standby, flood defense, evacuation to rescue, respectively. The proposed methodology is tested according to 22 historical events in the last 10 years for 252 urbanized townships in Taiwan. The results show satisfactory accuracy in predicting the occurrence and timing of flooding, with a logical warning time series for taking progressive measures. For systems with multiple rainfall thresholds already in place, the methodology can be used to ensure better application of rainfall thresholds in urban flood warnings.

  11. Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.

  12. Meteotsunamis, destructive tsunami-like waves: from observations and simulations towards a warning system (MESSI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepic, Jadranka; Vilibic, Ivica

    2016-04-01

    Atmospherically-generated tsunami-like waves, also known as meteotsunamis, pose a severe threat for exposed coastlines. Although not as destructive as ordinary tsunamis, several meters high meteotsunami waves can bring destruction, cause loss of human lives and raise panic. For that reason, MESSI, an integrative meteotsunami research & warning project, has been developed and will be presented herein. The project has a threefold base: (1) research of atmosphere-ocean interaction with focus on (i) source processes in the atmosphere, (ii) energy transfer to the ocean and (iii) along-propagation growth of meteotsunami waves; (2) estimation of meteotsunami occurrence rates in past, present and future climate, and mapping of meteotsunami hazard; (3) construction of a meteotsunami warning system prototype, with the latter being the main objective of the project. Due to a great frequency of meteotsunamis and its complex bathymetry which varies from the shallow shelf in the north towards deep pits in the south, with a number of funnel-shaped bays and harbours substantially amplifying incoming tsunami-like waves, the Adriatic, northernmost of the Mediterranean seas, has been chosen as an ideal area for realization of the MESSI project and implementation of the warning system. This warning system will however be designed to allow for a wider applicability and easy-to-accomplish transfer to other endangered locations. The architecture of the warning system will integrate several components: (1) real-time measurements of key oceanographic and atmospheric parameters, (2) coupled atmospheric-ocean models run in real time (warning) mode, and (3) semi-automatic procedures and protocols for warning of civil protection, local authorities and public. The effectiveness of the warning system will be tested over the historic events.

  13. Seismic Activity: Public Alert and Warning: Legal Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zocchetti, D.

    2007-12-01

    As science and technology evolve in ways that increase our ability to inform the public of potentially destructive seismic activity, there are significant legal issues for consideration. Even though countries and even states within the United States have differing legal tenets that could either change or at least re-shape the outcome of specific legal questions that this session will be pondering, there are fundamental legal principals that will permeate. It is often said that the law lags behind society and in particular its technological developments. No doubt in the area of warning the public of impending destructive forces of nature or society, the law will need to do some catching up. The law is probably adequately developed for at least some preliminary discussion of the key issues. No matter the legal scheme, if there is a failure or perceived failure in the system to warn people of a pending emergencies, albeit an earthquake, tsunami, or other predictable event, those who are harmed or believe they are harmed will seek relief under the law. Every day there are situations wherein the failure to warn or to adequately warn is key, such as with faulty or defective consumer products, escaped prisoners, and police high-speed vehicle chases. With alert and warning systems for disaster, however, we have a unique set of facts. Generally, the systems and their failures occur during emergencies or at least during situations under apparently exigent circumstances when the disaster's predictability is widely recognized as less than 100 percent. The law, in particular United States tort law, has been particularly lenient when people and organizations are operating during compressed timeframes and their actions are generally considered necessary to address circumstances relative to public safety. The legal system has been forgiving when the actor that failed or appeared to fail was government. The courts have liberally applied the principal of sovereign immunity to

  14. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

    2013-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  15. Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and

  16. Instructors' Use of Trigger Warnings and Behavior Warnings in Abnormal Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boysen, Guy A.; Wells, Anna Mae; Dawson, Kaylee J.

    2016-01-01

    College students have been increasingly demanding warnings and accommodations in relation to course topics they believe will elicit strong, negative emotions. These "trigger warnings" are highly relevant to Abnormal Psychology because of the sensitive topics covered in the course (e.g., suicide, trauma, sex). A survey of Abnormal…

  17. A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and

  18. Design and Validation of Affective Warning Pictorial on Cigarette Labels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chanduen Pat-Arin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of present study were to design and validate affective warning pictorials for cigarette label in Thailand. Brainstorming and survey techniques were used to collect the idea of possible warning pictorials. All ideas were grouped for finding candidated pictorials. Then, primary sixty warning pictorials were collected and equally classified into three affective warning pictorial groups as positive, neutral, and negative. Sixty Thai male engineering students participated in affective validation of warning pictorials using SAM rating. The International Affective Picture System (IAPS was used to manipulate the affective state of participants to neutral affective state before the experiments. The results revealed that all affective warning pictorials were successfully evoked target affective states on participants. After refining, thirty affective warning pictorials were provided as positive, neutral, and negative affective warning pictorials for using on cigarette labels. Implications on the affective warning pictorials design and validation.

  19. Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

    2015-04-01

    The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then

  20. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan - Result of recent two years -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimoyama, T.; Doi, K.; Kiyomoto, M.; Hoshiba, M.

    2009-12-01

    Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) started to provide Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) to the general public in October 2007. It was followed by provision of EEW to a limited number of users who understand the technical limit of EEW and can utilize it for automatic control from August 2006. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan definitely means information of estimated amplitude and arrival time of a strong ground motion after fault rupture occurred. In other words, the EEW provided by JMA is defined as a forecast of a strong ground motion before the strong motion arrival. EEW of JMA is to enable advance countermeasures to disasters caused by strong ground motions with providing a warning message of anticipating strong ground motion before the S wave arrival. However, due to its very short available time period, there should need some measures and ideas to provide rapidly EEW and utilize it properly. - EEW is issued to general public when the maximum seismic intensity 5 lower (JMA scale) or greater is expected. - EEW message contains origin time, epicentral region name, and names of areas (unit is about 1/3 to 1/4 of one prefecture) where seismic intensity 4 or greater is expected. Expected arrival time is not included because it differs substantially even in one unit area. - EEW is to be broadcast through the broadcasting media(TV, radio and City Administrative Disaster Management Radio), and is delivered to cellular phones through cell broadcast system. For those who would like to know the more precise estimation and smaller earthquake information at their point of their properties, JMA allows designated private companies to provide forecast of strong ground motion, in which the estimation of a seismic intensity as well as arrival time of S-wave are contained, at arbitrary places under the JMA’s technical assurance. From October, 2007 to August, 2009, JMA issued 11 warnings to general public expecting seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater, including M=7.2 inland

  1. Radar-based Flood Warning System for Houston, Texas and Its Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

    2009-12-01

    Houston has a long history of flooding problems as a serious nature. For instance, Houstonians suffered from severe flood inundation during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Radar-based flood warning systems as non-structural tools to provide accurate and timely warnings to the public and private entities are greatly needed for urban areas prone to flash floods. Fortunately, the advent of GIS, radar-based rainfall estimation using NEXRAD, and real-time delivery systems on the internet have allowed flood alert systems to provide important advanced warning of impending flood conditions. Thus, emergency personnel can take proper steps to mitigate against catastrophic losses. The Rice and Texas Medical Center (TMC) Flood Alert System (FAS2) has been delivering warning information with 2 to 3 hours of lead time to facility personnel in a readily understood format for more than 40 events since 1997. The system performed well during these major rainfall events with R square value of 93%. The current system has been improved by incorporating a new hydraulic prediction tool - FloodPlain Map Library (FPML). The FPML module aims to provide visualized information such as floodplain maps and water surface elevations instead of just showing hydrographs in real time based on NEXRAD radar rainfall data. During Hurricane Ike (September, 2008), FAS2 successfully provided precise and timely flood warning information to TMC with the peak flow difference of 3.6% and the volume difference of 5.6%; timing was excellent for this double-peaked event. With the funding from the Texas Department of Transportation, a similar flood warning system has been developed at a critical transportation pass along Highway 288 in Houston, Texas. In order to enable emergency personnel to begin flood preparation with as much lead time as possible, FAS2 is being used as a prototype to develop warning system for other flood-prone areas such as City of Sugar Land.

  2. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    model COUP). The data are presented in a web- and GIS-based system with daily nationwide maps showing the meteorological and hydrological conditions for the present and the near future from quantitative weather prognosis. In addition a division of the country in homogenous debris flow-prone regions is also under progress based on geomorfological, topographic parameters and loose quaternary deposits distribution. Threshold-levels are being investigated by using statistical analyses of historical debris flows events and measured hydro-meteorological parameters. The debris flow early warning system is currently being tested and is expected to be operational in 2013. Final products will be warning messages and a map showing the different hazard levels, from low to high, indicating the landslide probability and the type of expected damages in a certain area. Many activities are realized in strong collaboration with the road and railway authorities, the geological survey and private consultant companies.

  3. TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Early warning system (EWS) is the most effective method in saving lives and reducing property damages resulted from the catastrophic landslides if properly implemented in populated areas of landslide-prone nations. For predicting the occurrence of landslides, it requires examination of empirical relationship between rainfall characteristics and past landslide occurrence. In developed countries like Japan and the US, precipitation is monitored by rain radars and ground-based rain gauge matrix. However, in developing regions like Southeast Asian countries, very limited number of rain gauges is available, and there is no implemented methodology for issuing effective warming of landslides yet. Correspondingly, satellite precipitation monitoring could be therefore a possible and promising solution for launching landslide quasi-real-time early warning system in those countries. It is due to the fact that TMPA (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) can provides a globally calibration-based sequential scheme for combining precipitation estimates from multiple satellites, and gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (3-hourly with 0.25°x0.25° spatial resolution). It is available both after and in quasi-real time, calibrated by TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation product. However, validation of ground based rain gauge and TRMM satellite data in the vulnerable regions is still not yet operative. Snake-line/Critical-line and Soil Water Index (SWI) are used for issuing warning of landslide occurrence in Japan; whereas, Caine criterion is preferable in Europe and western nations. Herewith, it presents rainfall behavior which took place in Beichuan city (located on the 2008 Chinese Wenchuan earthquake fault), Hofu and Shobara cities in Japan where localized heavy rainfall attacked in 2009 and 2010, respectively, from TRMM 3B42RT correlated with ground based rain gauge data. The 1-day rainfall intensity and 15-day cumulative rainfall

  4. Emergency warning for people with disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putkovich, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The intent of this article is to assess the current state of Emergency Warning capabilities in the United States and make recommendations on what needs to be done to cost effectively establish a National Emergency Warning System to best serve the people of the United States, including those with disabilities. As part of this assessment, terminology will be defined, existing systems will be examined, critical needs and functions will be explained, and recommendations made for a system to deliver emergency messages to those people immediately at risk from natural and human-caused disasters in a timely and effective manner, regardless of location or situational circumstance. The assessment will include the needs and available technologies for delivering emergency warnings to people with disabilities, which are generally little understood, poorly addressed, and often ignored.

  5. A new French flash flood warning service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Saint-Aubin Céline

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The French State services in charge of flood forecasting supervise about 22,000 km among the 120,000 km of the French rivers within a warning procedure called Vigilance Crues (http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr. Some recent dramatic flood events on small watershed not covered by Vigilance Crues highlight the need for a new warning procedure to anticipate violent flash floods that regularly affect rapid river-basins. Thus the concept emerged of an automatic warning service specifically dedicated to local crisis managers. This service will be less elaborated than Vigilance Crues, probably with false alarms and missed events sometimes, but it will deliver a first information. The generation of the warning is based on a simple rainfall-runoff hydrological model developed by Irstea on all French rivers, fed with radar-gauge rainfall grids provided by Meteo-France. Every fifteen minutes, the hydrological model estimates the discharges on the rivers eligible to the service and determine if certain thresholds corresponding to a high or very high flood are likely to be exceeded. The last step of the real-time system is to determine which municipalities are concerned with flood risk and send them an automatic warning by voice call, optionally by sms or email. A specific web interface is available for users to monitor the evolution of the flood risk on maps that are updated every 15 minutes. This new flash flood warning service will be operational early 2017 as a free service for about 8,000 French municipalities.

  6. Development of a Global Agricultural Hotspot Detection and Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, G.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Csak, G.

    2015-12-01

    The number of web based platforms for crop monitoring has grown rapidly over the last years and anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators can be accessed online thanks to a number of web based portals. However, while these systems make available a large amount of crop monitoring data to the agriculture and food security analysts, there is no global platform which provides agricultural production hotspot warning in a highly automatic and timely manner. Therefore a web based system providing timely warning evidence as maps and short narratives is currently under development by the Joint Research Centre. The system (called "HotSpot Detection System of Agriculture Production Anomalies", HSDS) will focus on water limited agricultural systems worldwide. The automatic analysis of relevant meteorological and vegetation indicators at selected administrative units (Gaul 1 level) will trigger warning messages for the areas where anomalous conditions are observed. The level of warning (ranging from "watch" to "alert") will depend on the nature and number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. Information regarding the extent of the agricultural areas concerned by the anomaly and the progress of the agricultural season will complement the warning label. In addition, we are testing supplementary detailed information from other sources for the areas triggering a warning. These regard the automatic web-based and food security-tailored analysis of media (using the JRC Media Monitor semantic search engine) and the automatic detection of active crop area using Sentinel 1, upcoming Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. The basic processing will be fully automated and updated every 10 days exploiting low resolution rainfall estimates and satellite vegetation indices. Maps, trend graphs and statistics accompanied by short narratives edited by a team of crop monitoring experts, will be made available on the website on a

  7. Recasting the warning-response problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, C.O.; Otto, F.; Brante, J.

    2010-01-01

    , accepted, prioritized and responded to by policy-makers. This has led to a simplistic understanding of how communicative, cognitive and political processes involving a range of actors can influence both the perception as well as the response to warnings. The paper also criticizes that many normative...... judgments about the desirability of preventive action are suffering from hindsight bias and insufficient attention to balancing problems related to risk substitution, opportunity costs and moral hazard. In response to these deficits, the paper puts forward a modified model of warning as a persuasive process...

  8. Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

  9. An Infrastructure for a Traffic Warning System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2005-01-01

    The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure...... supporting inter-vehicle communication.This paper presents our results on requirementsidentication, design, and prototyping of the infrastructure.The infrastructure combines communication via mobilephones with communication based on the principles ofad-hoc networking, and it supports units in being...... updatedduring operation. The presented prototypes and associatedexperimental results demonstrate the main functionalitiesof the communication infrastructure, and have led to theinitial deployment of LIWAS units....

  10. The Global Emergency Observation and Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukley, Angelia P.; Mulqueen, John A.

    1994-01-01

    Based on an extensive characterization of natural hazards, and an evaluation of their impacts on humanity, a set of functional technical requirements for a global warning and relief system was developed. Since no technological breakthroughs are required to implement a global system capable of performing the functions required to provide sufficient information for prevention, preparedness, warning, and relief from natural disaster effects, a system is proposed which would combine the elements of remote sensing, data processing, information distribution, and communications support on a global scale for disaster mitigation.

  11. Prototype Rail Crossing Violation Warning Application Project Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-05

    This report is the Project Report for the Rail Crossing Violation Warning (RCVW) safety application developed for the project on Rail Crossing Violation Warning Application and Infrastructure Connection, providing a means for equipped connected vehic...

  12. Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

  13. Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Christianson, Amy; Becker, Julia; Keys, Harry

    2008-05-01

    PurposeThis paper examines the unique challenges to volcanic risk management associated with having a ski area on an active volcano. Using a series of simulated eruption/lahar events at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, as a context, a model of risk management that integrates warning system design and technology, risk perceptions and the human response is explored. Principal resultsDespite increases in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk, a persistent minority of the public continued to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take during a warning and failed to respond effectively. A relationship between level of staff competence and correct public response allowed the level of public response to be used to identify residual risk and additional staff training needs. The quality of staff awareness, action and decision-making has emerged as a critical factor, from detailed staff and public interviews and from exercise observations. Staff actions are especially important for mobilising correct public response at Ruapehu ski areas due to the transient nature of the visitor population. Introduction of education material and staff training strategies that included the development of emergency decision-making competencies improved knowledge of correct actions, and increased the proportion of people moving out of harm's way during blind tests. Major conclusionsWarning effectiveness is a function of more than good hazard knowledge and the generation and notification of an early warning message. For warning systems to be effective, these factors must be complemented by accurate knowledge of risk and risk management actions. By combining the Ruapehu findings with those of other warning system studies in New Zealand, and internationally, a practical five-step model for effective early warning systems is discussed. These steps must be based upon sound and

  14. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2013-01-01

    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the

  15. 16 CFR 307.2 - Required warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Required warnings. 307.2 Section 307.2 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION REGULATIONS UNDER SPECIFIC ACTS OF CONGRESS REGULATIONS UNDER... Comprehensive Smokeless Tobacco Health Education Act of 1986 is the law that requires the enactment of these...

  16. Brake wear warning device: A concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, S. F.

    1973-01-01

    Heat-insulated wire is introduced through brake shoe and partially into brake lining. Wire is connected to positive terminal and light bulb. When brakes wear to critical point, contact between wire and wheel drum grounds circuit and turns on warning light.

  17. 30 CFR 75.208 - Warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Roof Support § 75.208 Warning devices. Except during the..., or a physical barrier shall be installed to impede travel beyond permanent support. ...

  18. 2013 Copyright © 2013, CRISA Publications PictoriAl WArningS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Key Words: Cigarette smoking; tobacco; pictorial warning messages; late adolescents corresponding author: ... messages on the prevention of smoking ... centrate on the effect of social smoking .... The research's aim was explained to the.

  19. The Association between Warning Label Requirements and Cigarette Smoking Prevalence by Education-Findings from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Ce; Huang, Jidong; Cheng, Kai-Wen; He, Yanyun; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2017-01-21

    The Guidelines for the implementation of Article 11 of the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) require that cigarette health warning labels should include pictures and take up 50% or more of the principal display area. This study examined how the association between large pictorial warnings, those covering ≥50% of the front and back of the package, and the prevalence of cigarette smoking varies by educational attainment. We pooled individual-level tobacco use data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) in 18 countries between 2008 and 2013 and linked them with warning label requirements during the same period from the MPOWER database and reports regarding warnings. The respondents' self-reported exposure to warnings was examined according to education. Logistic regressions were further employed to analyze education-specific associations between large pictorial warnings and smoking prevalence, and whether such association differed by education was examined using an interaction test. At the time of the survey, eight out of 18 countries had imposed graphic warning labels that covered ≥50% of the package. These warnings were associated with a 10.0% (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.97; p ≤ 0.01) lower cigarette smoking prevalence among adults with less than a secondary education or no formal education, but not among respondents with at least a secondary education. Less educated respondents were also less likely to be exposed to warnings in all 18 countries. The association between strong warnings and lower smoking prevalence among less educated respondents could be greater if their exposure to warnings increases. Prominent pictorial warning labels can potentially reduce health disparities resulting from smoking across different education levels.

  20. The Association between Warning Label Requirements and Cigarette Smoking Prevalence by Education-Findings from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ce Shang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Guidelines for the implementation of Article 11 of the World Health Organization (WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC require that cigarette health warning labels should include pictures and take up 50% or more of the principal display area. This study examined how the association between large pictorial warnings, those covering ≥50% of the front and back of the package, and the prevalence of cigarette smoking varies by educational attainment. Methods: We pooled individual-level tobacco use data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS in 18 countries between 2008 and 2013 and linked them with warning label requirements during the same period from the MPOWER database and reports regarding warnings. The respondents’ self-reported exposure to warnings was examined according to education. Logistic regressions were further employed to analyze education-specific associations between large pictorial warnings and smoking prevalence, and whether such association differed by education was examined using an interaction test. Results: At the time of the survey, eight out of 18 countries had imposed graphic warning labels that covered ≥50% of the package. These warnings were associated with a 10.0% (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.97; p ≤ 0.01 lower cigarette smoking prevalence among adults with less than a secondary education or no formal education, but not among respondents with at least a secondary education. Less educated respondents were also less likely to be exposed to warnings in all 18 countries. The association between strong warnings and lower smoking prevalence among less educated respondents could be greater if their exposure to warnings increases. Conclusions: Prominent pictorial warning labels can potentially reduce health disparities resulting from smoking across different education levels.

  1. 78 FR 6056 - Smokeless Tobacco Product Warning Statements; Request for Comments and Scientific Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-29

    ... warnings that must appear on smokeless tobacco product packages and advertising. The Smokeless Tobacco Act (15 U.S.C. 4402(a)(1) and (b)(1)), requires that smokeless tobacco product packages and advertising... color graphics to accompany the text, increase the required label area from 30 up to 50 percent of the...

  2. Trigger Warnings as Respect for Student Boundaries in University Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Leland G.; Kulbaga, Theresa A.

    2018-01-01

    The fierce public and scholarly debate over trigger warnings in university classrooms has often characterized the issue as one of academic freedom and ignored the social justice arguments for trigger warnings. In this essay, we argue that trigger warnings expand academic speech by engaging students more fully in their own learning. Specifically,…

  3. Warnings and Human Response in the Oroville Dam Crisis, February 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, J. H.; Mileti, D. S.; Needham, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    On February 7, 2017, erosion was detected in the primary spillway for Oroville Dam in northern California, causing an elevated concern for the safety of downstream communities. The situation seemed stable until heavy rains on February 11 resulted in the flow of water over the emergency spillway. On February 12, erosion below the emergency spillway was observed. At 4:21 PM on February 12, the Butte County Sheriff issued an evacuation order for "low levels of Oroville and downstream areas". Counties downstream followed with evacuation warnings. The purpose of this paper is to present preliminary results of research, conducted for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, on the Oroville event. This investigation is part of a research program designed to collect and analyze data on: 1) The timing of the decisions to order public evacuation warnings including the flow of information between engineers and geologist monitoring the hazard and local officials. 2) The method and timing of the dissemination of those warnings including the diffusion or warning by various communication channels. 3) The interpretation and response of the public to those warnings, including the timing of protective action decisions. The findings from these studies will be incorporated into risk assessment models used in assessing the impacts of dam and levee failures on a national basis.

  4. Study of Water Pollution Early Warning Framework Based on Internet of Things

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chengfang, H.; Xiao, X.; Dingtao, S.; Bo, C.; Xiongfei, W.

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  5. STUDY OF WATER POLLUTION EARLY WARNING FRAMEWORK BASED ON INTERNET OF THINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Chengfang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  6. Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cova, Thomas J; Dennison, Philip E; Li, Dapeng; Drews, Frank A; Siebeneck, Laura K; Lindell, Michael K

    2017-04-01

    Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  8. Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.

  9. The lower effectiveness of text-only health warnings in China compared to pictorial health warnings in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elton-Marshall, Tara; Xu, Steve Shaowei; Meng, Gang; Quah, Anne C K; Sansone, Genevieve C; Feng, Guoze; Jiang, Yuan; Driezen, Pete; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2015-11-01

    In 2009, China changed its health warnings on cigarette packs from side-only text warnings to two text-only warnings on 30% of the bottom of the front and back of the pack. Also in 2009, Malaysia changed from similar text warnings to pictorial health warnings consistent with Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) Article 11 Guidelines. To measure the impact of the change in health warnings in China and to compare the text-only health warnings to the impact of the pictorial health warnings introduced in Malaysia. We measured changes in key indicators of warning effectiveness among a longitudinal cohort sample of smokers from Waves 1 to 3 (2006-2009) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey and from Waves 3 to 4 (2008-2009) of the ITC Malaysia Survey. Each cohort consisted of representative samples of adult (≥18 years) smokers from six cities in China (n=6575) and from a national sample in Malaysia (n=2883). Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to examine the impact of the health warnings on subsequent changes in salience of warnings, cognitive and behavioural outcomes. Compared to Malaysia, the weak text-only warning labels in China led to a significant change in only two of six key indicators of health warning effectiveness: forgoing cigarettes and reading the warning labels. The change to pictorial health warnings in Malaysia led to significant and substantial increases in five of six indicators (noticing, reading, forgoing, avoiding, thinking about quitting). The delay in implementing pictorial health warnings in China constitutes a lost opportunity for increasing knowledge and awareness of the harms of cigarettes, and for motivating smokers to quit. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  10. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    could be to immediately install a single station system to establish some level of warning. Subsequently, supporting the implementation of a full network-based EEW system on the Island of Hawaiʻi would provide additional benefit in the form of improved warning times once the system is fully installed and operational, which may take several years. Distributed populations across the Hawaiian Islands, including those outside the major cities and far from the likely earthquake source areas, would likely only benefit from a network approach such as ShakeAlert to provide warnings of strong shaking.

  11. Geoethical issues involved in Tsunami Warning System concepts and operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process

  12. Interpretation and misinterpretation of warning signage: perceptions of rockfalls in a naturalistic setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aucote, Helen M; Miner, Anthony; Dahlhaus, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the factors relating to non-adherence to warning signs about falling rocks from coastal cliff faces. Face-to-face interviews (n = 62) in a naturalistic setting (in the vicinity of a high-risk rockfall area) were conducted to investigate attention to and comprehension of warning signs, as well as beliefs relating to non-adherence of the signage. It was found that, while most participants could correctly identify the danger in the area and had noticed the warning signage, less than half of the participants could correctly interpret the signage. The perception of danger did not differ significantly between the participants who had, or had not, entered the high-risk zone. Differences in knowledge and beliefs between local residents and visitors to the area were identified. It was concluded that the warning signs did not provide enough detail for people to make informed decisions about safe behaviours. Comprehension of the signage may have been hampered by a lack of prior-knowledge of the particular risk, a failure to think carefully about the situation (i.e. low-effort processing), and the pictorial representation on the signs misleading the participants as to the true danger.

  13. Influence of Health Warnings on Beliefs about the Health Effects of Cigarette Smoking, in the Context of an Experimental Study in Four Asian Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica L. Reid

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Cigarette package health warnings can be an important and low-cost means of communicating the health risks of smoking. We examined whether viewing health warnings in an experimental study influenced beliefs about the health effects of smoking, by conducting surveys with ~500 adult male smokers and ~500 male and female youth (age 16–18 in Beijing, China (n = 1070, Mumbai area, India (n = 1012, Dhaka, Bangladesh (n = 1018, and Republic of Korea (n = 1362. Each respondent was randomly assigned to view and rate pictorial health warnings for 2 of 15 different health effects, after which they reported beliefs about whether smoking caused 12 health effects. Respondents who viewed relevant health warnings (vs. other warnings were significantly more likely to believe that smoking caused that particular health effect, for several health effects in each sample. Approximately three-quarters of respondents in China (Beijing, Bangladesh (Dhaka, and Korea (which had general, text-only warnings thought that cigarette packages should display more health information, compared to approximately half of respondents in the Mumbai area, India (which had detailed pictorial warnings. Pictorial health warnings that convey the risk of specific health effects from smoking can increase beliefs and knowledge about the health consequences of smoking, particularly for health effects that are lesser-known.

  14. Social Interactions Sparked by Pictorial Warnings on Cigarette Packs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marissa G. Hall

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The Message Impact Framework suggests that social interactions may offer smokers the opportunity to process pictorial warnings on cigarette packs more deeply. We aimed to describe adult smokers’ social interactions about pictorial cigarette pack warnings in two longitudinal pilot studies. In Pilot Study 1, 30 smokers used cigarette packs with one of nine pictorial warnings for two weeks. In Pilot Study 2, 46 smokers used cigarette packs with one of five pictorial warnings for four weeks. Nearly all smokers (97%/96% in Pilot Study 1/2 talked about the warnings with other people, with the most common people being friends (67%/87% and spouses/significant others (34%/42%. Pilot Study 2 found that 26% of smokers talked about the warnings with strangers. Discussions about the health effects of smoking and quitting smoking were more frequent during the first week of exposure to pictorial warnings than in the week prior to beginning the study (both p < 0.05. Pictorial warnings sparked social interactions about the warnings, the health effects of smoking, and quitting smoking, indicating that pictorial warnings may act as a social intervention reaching beyond the individual. Future research should examine social interactions as a potential mediator of the impact of pictorial warnings on smoking behavior.

  15. The design of the light-flash warning light

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junli

    2018-05-01

    In today's society, the warning light has been used widely in people's daily life and various industries and agricultures. It is important to protect people's life and security. Light-flashing warning light is a kind of warning light control equipment which can control warning light automatically open and work in the state of blinking after dark, and it can automatically shut down after the dawn. It can achieve the flashing light automatic control and dual function. At present, light-flashing warning lights are mainly used in the projects of municipal construction. It is helpful to warn people and vehicles that passed in the construction site and ensure personal safety through using light-flashing warning light. Its design is simple, its performance is stable and it is also very convince to use it.

  16. Tsunami Warning Services for the U.S. and Canadian Atlantic Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, P. M.; Knight, W.

    2008-12-01

    In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed a tsunami warning program for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Within a year, this program extended further to the Atlantic coast of Canada and the Caribbean Sea. Warning services are provided to U.S. and Canadian coasts (including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) by the NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) while the NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) provides services for non-U.S. entities in the Caribbean Basin. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is also an active partner in the Caribbean Basin warning system. While the nature of the tsunami threat in the Atlantic Basin is different than in the Pacific, the warning system philosophy is similar. That is, initial messages are based strictly on seismic data so that information is provided to those at greatest risk as fast as possible while supplementary messages are refined with sea level observations and forecasts when possible. The Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) acquire regional seismic data through many agencies, such as the United States Geological Survey, Earthquakes Canada, regional seismic networks, and the PRSN. Seismic data quantity and quality are generally sufficient throughout most of the Atlantic area-of-responsibility to issue initial information within five minutes of origin time. Sea level data are mainly provided by the NOAA/National Ocean Service. Coastal tide gage coverage is generally denser along the Atlantic coast than in the Pacific. Seven deep ocean pressure sensors (DARTs), operated by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Data Buoy Center, are located in the Atlantic Basin (5 in the Atlantic Ocean, 1 in the Caribbean, and 1 in the Gulf of Mexico). The DARTs provide TWCs with the means to verify tsunami generation in the Atlantic and provide critical data with which to calibrate forecast models. Tsunami warning response criteria in the Atlantic Basin

  17. Automatic early warning systems for the environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesjak Martin

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Computerized, continuous monitoring environmental early warning systems are complex networks that merge measurements with the information technology. Accuracy, consistency, reliability and data quality are their most important features. Several effects may disturb their characteristics: hostile environment, unreliable communications, poor quality of equipment nonqualified users or service personnel. According to our experiences, a number of measures should be taken to enhance system performances and to maintain them at the desired level. In the paper, we are presenting an analysis of system requirements, possible disturbances and corrective measures that give the main directives for the design, construction and exploitation of the environmental early warning systems. Procedures which ensure data integrity and quality are mentioned. Finally, the contemporary system approach based on the LAN/WAN network topology with Intranet/Internet software is proposed, together with case descriptions of two already operating systems, based on computer-network principle.

  18. Home seismometer for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horiuchi, Shigeki; Horiuchi, Yuko; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Wu, Changjiang; Rydelek, Paul A.; Kachi, Masaaki

    2009-02-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has started the practical service of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and a very dense deployment of receiving units is expected in the near future. The receiving/alarm unit of an EEW system is equipped with a CPU and memory and is on-line via the internet. By adding an inexpensive seismometer and A/D converter, this unit is transformed into a real-time seismic observatory, which we are calling a home seismometer. If the home seismometer is incorporated in the standard receiving unit of EEW, then the number of seismic observatories will be drastically increased. Since the background noise inside a house caused by human activity may be very large, we have developed specialized software for on-site warning using the home seismometer. We tested our software and found that our algorithm can correctly distinguish between noise and earthquakes for nearly all the events.

  19. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  20. Early warnings : a phenomenon in project management

    OpenAIRE

    Nikander, Ilmari O.

    2002-01-01

    The emergence of Concurrent Engineering has caused growing demands on project management. The classic project management methods are often slow: problems may already exist when those methods are applied. The objective of the present study is to improve the opportunities of those responsible for a project's operational management to receive advance information about potential problems and final results through early warnings typical of the theory of weak signals by Igor Ansoff. The researc...

  1. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  2. A comparison of different informative vibrotactile forward collision warnings: does the warning need to be linked to the collision event?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Gray

    Full Text Available Recent research demonstrates that auditory and vibrotactile forward collision warnings presenting a motion signal (e.g., looming or apparent motion across the body surface can facilitate speeded braking reaction times (BRTs. The purpose of the present study was to expand on this work by directly comparing warning signals in which the motion conveyed was constant across all collision events with signals in which the speed of motion was dependent on the closing velocity (CV. Two experiments were conducted using a simulated car-following task and BRTs were measured. In Experiment 1, increasing intensity (looming vibrotactile signals were presented from a single tactor attached to the driver's waist. When the increase in intensity was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster as compared to a no-warning condition, however, they were not significantly different from constant intensity and CV-independent looming warnings. In Experiment 2, a vertical array of three tactors was used to create motion either towards (upwards or away (downwards from the driver's head. When the warning signal presented upwards motion that was CV-linked, BRTs were significantly faster than all other warning types. Downwards warnings led to a significantly higher number of brake activations in false alarm situations as compared to upwards moving warnings. The effectiveness of dynamic tactile collision warnings would therefore appear to depend on both the link between the warning and collision event and on the directionality of the warning signal.

  3. The Monumental Task of Warning Future Generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    NA

    2005-01-01

    Describing preliminary concepts for permanent warning monuments or markers on the mountain's surface will be part of the US Department of Energy's license application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The NRC requires that the monuments or markers accurately identify the location of the repository, be designed to be as permanent as practicable and convey a warning against intrusion into the underground repository, because of risk to public health and safety from radioactive wastes. Current concepts include both monuments and markers, but the designs will not be final for some time because they will not be approved by the NRC until shortly before the repository is to be permanently sealed and closed. Closure of the repository would be at least 50 years, and possibly up to 300 years, after the first waste is emplaced deep underground. Design ideas for the monuments and markers have been drawn from a broad range of sources: Yucca Mountain's natural conditions, worldwide archeological studies, materials science, and verbal and symbolic linguistics. The monumental challenge is to address how warnings can be coherently conveyed for thousands of years into the future when human society and languages could change radically

  4. REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

    2014-05-01

    Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

  5. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

    2017-07-10

    to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com

  6. Near Real Time Flood Warning System for National Capital Territory of Delhi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, A.; Yadav, H.; Tyagi, H.; Gosain, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme floods are common phenomena during Indian Monsoons. The National Capital Territory area of India, Delhi, frequently experiences fluvial as well as pluvial inundation due to its proximity to river Yamuna and poor functioning of its stormwater drainage system. The urban floods result in severe waterlogging and heavy traffic snarls, bringing life in this megapolis to a halt. The city has witnessed six major floods since 1900 and thus its residents are well conscious of potential flood risks but the city still lacks a flood warning system. The flood related risks can be considerably reduced, if not eliminated, by issuing timely warnings and implementing adaptive measures. Therefore, the present study attempts to develop a web based platform that integrates Web-GIS technology and mathematical simulation modelling to provide an effective and reliable early flood warning service for Delhi. The study makes use of India Metorological Department's Doppler radar-derived near real time rainfall estimates of 15 minutes time step. The developed SWMM model has been validated using information from gauges, monitoring sensors and crowd sourcing techniques and utilises capabilities of cloud computing on server side for fast processing. This study also recommends safe evacuation policy and remedial measures for flooding hotspots as part of flood risk management plan. With heightened risk of floods in fast urbanizing areas, this work becomes highly pertinent as flood warning system with adequate lead time can not only save precious lives but can also substantially reduce flood damages.

  7. Dynamic Critical Rainfall-Based Flash Flood Early Warning and Forecasting for Medium-Small Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Yang, D.; Hu, J.

    2012-04-01

    China is extremely frequent food disasters hit countries, annual flood season flash floods triggered by rainfall, mudslides, landslides have caused heavy casualties and property losses, not only serious threaten the lives of the masses, but the majority of seriously restricting the mountain hill areas of economic and social development and the people become rich, of building a moderately prosperous society goals. In the next few years, China will focus on prevention and control area in the flash flood disasters initially built "for the surveillance, communications, forecasting, early warning and other non-engineering measure based, non-engineering measures and the combinations of engineering measures," the mitigation system. The latest progresses on global torrential flood early warning and forecasting techniques are reviewed in this paper, and then an early warning and forecasting approach is proposed on the basis of a distributed hydrological model according to dynamic critical rainfall index. This approach has been applied in Suichuanjiang River basin in Jiangxi province, which is expected to provide valuable reference for building a national flash flood early warning and forecasting system as well as control of such flooding.

  8. Implicit motivational impact of pictorial health warning on cigarette packs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Volchan

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The use of pictorial warning labels on cigarette packages is one of the provisions included in the first ever global health treaty by the World Health Organization against the tobacco epidemic. There is substantial evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of graphic health warning labels on intention to quit, thoughts about health risks and engaging in cessation behaviors. However, studies that address the implicit emotional drives evoked by such warnings are still underexplored. Here, we provide experimental data for the use of pictorial health warnings as a reliable strategy for tobacco control. METHODS: Experiment 1 pre-tested nineteen prototypes of pictorial warnings to screen for their emotional impact. Participants (n = 338 were young adults balanced in gender, smoking status and education. Experiment 2 (n = 63 tested pictorial warnings (ten that were stamped on packs. We employed an innovative set-up to investigate the impact of the warnings on the ordinary attitude of packs' manipulation, and quantified judgments of warnings' emotional strength and efficacy against smoking. FINDINGS: Experiment 1 revealed that women judged the warning prototypes as more aversive than men, and smokers judged them more aversive than non-smokers. Participants with lower education judged the prototypes more aversive than participants with higher education. Experiment 2 showed that stamped warnings antagonized the appeal of the brands by imposing a cost to manipulate the cigarette packs, especially for smokers. Additionally, participants' judgments revealed that the more aversive a warning, the more it is perceived as effective against smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Health warning labels are one of the key components of the integrated approach to control the global tobacco epidemic. The evidence presented in this study adds to the understanding of how implicit responses to pictorial warnings may contribute to behavioral change.

  9. A review of studies on community based early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Macherera

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated by successes made in non-disease specific community-based early warning systems with a view to identify opportunities for developing similar systems for malaria. This article reviewed the existing community-based early warning systems documented in literature. The types of disasters that are addressed by these systems and the methodologies utilised in the development of the systems were identified. The review showed that most of the documented community-based early warning systems focus on natural disasters such as floods, drought, and landslides. Community-based early warning systems for human diseases are very few, even though such systems exist at national and regional and global levels. There is a clear gap in terms of community-based malaria early warning systems. The methodologies for the development of the community-based early warning systems reviewed mainly derive from the four elements of early warning systems; namely risk knowledge, monitoring, warning communication and response capability. The review indicated the need for the development of community based early warning systems for human diseases. Keywords: community; early warning; disaster; hazards

  10. Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing

  11. Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Intrieri

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System: An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC, where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

  12. Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

    2017-10-01

    A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

  13. Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

  14. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  15. Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory

  16. Implicit Motivational Impact of Pictorial Health Warning on Cigarette Packs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volchan, Eliane; David, Isabel A.; Tavares, Gisella; Nascimento, Billy M.; Oliveira, Jose M.; Gleiser, Sonia; Szklo, Andre; Perez, Cristina; Cavalcante, Tania; Pereira, Mirtes G.; Oliveira, Leticia

    2013-01-01

    Objective The use of pictorial warning labels on cigarette packages is one of the provisions included in the first ever global health treaty by the World Health Organization against the tobacco epidemic. There is substantial evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of graphic health warning labels on intention to quit, thoughts about health risks and engaging in cessation behaviors. However, studies that address the implicit emotional drives evoked by such warnings are still underexplored. Here, we provide experimental data for the use of pictorial health warnings as a reliable strategy for tobacco control. Methods Experiment 1 pre-tested nineteen prototypes of pictorial warnings to screen for their emotional impact. Participants (n = 338) were young adults balanced in gender, smoking status and education. Experiment 2 (n = 63) tested pictorial warnings (ten) that were stamped on packs. We employed an innovative set-up to investigate the impact of the warnings on the ordinary attitude of packs’ manipulation, and quantified judgments of warnings’ emotional strength and efficacy against smoking. Findings Experiment 1 revealed that women judged the warning prototypes as more aversive than men, and smokers judged them more aversive than non-smokers. Participants with lower education judged the prototypes more aversive than participants with higher education. Experiment 2 showed that stamped warnings antagonized the appeal of the brands by imposing a cost to manipulate the cigarette packs, especially for smokers. Additionally, participants’ judgments revealed that the more aversive a warning, the more it is perceived as effective against smoking. Conclusions Health warning labels are one of the key components of the integrated approach to control the global tobacco epidemic. The evidence presented in this study adds to the understanding of how implicit responses to pictorial warnings may contribute to behavioral change. PMID:23977223

  17. A review of studies on community based early warning systems

    OpenAIRE

    Margaret Macherera; Moses J. Chimbari

    2016-01-01

    Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated...

  18. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2008-01-09

    As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τ c and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV) could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τ c and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  19. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroo Kanamori

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  20. Exploring the utility of real-time hydrologic data for landslide early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, B. B.; Smith, J. B.; Becker, R.; Baum, R. L.; Koss, E.

    2017-12-01

    Early warning systems can provide critical information for operations managers, emergency planners, and the public to help reduce fatalities, injuries, and economic losses due to landsliding. For shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides early warning systems typically use empirical rainfall thresholds, whereas the actual triggering mechanism involves the non-linear hydrological processes of infiltration, evapotranspiration, and hillslope drainage that are more difficult to quantify. Because hydrologic monitoring has demonstrated that shallow landslides are often preceded by a rise in soil moisture and pore-water pressures, some researchers have developed early warning criteria that attempt to account for these antecedent wetness conditions through relatively simplistic storage metrics or soil-water balance modeling. Here we explore the potential for directly incorporating antecedent wetness into landslide early warning criteria using recent landslide inventories and in-situ hydrologic monitoring near Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. We use continuous, near-real-time telemetered soil moisture and pore-water pressure data measured within a few landslide-prone hillslopes in combination with measured and forecasted rainfall totals to inform easy-to-interpret landslide initiation thresholds. Objective evaluation using somewhat limited landslide inventories suggests that our new thresholds based on subsurface hydrologic monitoring and rainfall data compare favorably to the capabilities of existing rainfall-only thresholds for the Seattle area, whereas there are no established rainfall thresholds for the Portland area. This preliminary investigation provides a proof-of-concept for the utility of developing landslide early warning criteria in two different geologic settings using real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements from in-situ instrumentation.

  1. Leakage warning system for flexible underwater pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, E; Bernstein, L

    1985-08-01

    Underwater pipelines for unloading oil tankers, e.g. in 30 km distance from the harbour site, are required to be flexible and require supervision. This is done by implementation of oil sensitive sensors between the inner rubber tube and the following impregnated textile layer. The generated sensor signals, influenced by leak oil, have to be wireless transmitted from 150 meters under water to the supervisory station at the coast. Sensor configurations are described, to derive the point of the leakage from the topologized warning signals.

  2. Early warning signals of simulated Amazon dieback

    OpenAIRE

    Boulton, Chris; Good, Peter; Lenton, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Dieback of the Amazon rainforest has been considered a potential tipping point in the Earth system due to the belief that there is more than one stable attractor in its dynamics and for future projections within global climate models (GCMs), in some cases a huge amount of forest is lost abruptly. The rainforest is a huge carbon sink, playing a critical role in the global carbon cycle and so if dieback is going to happen over a short period of time, it is important to have some early warning t...

  3. Early warning network of the Czech Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drabova, D.; Kuca, P.; Prouza, Z.

    1998-01-01

    The Early Warning Network encompasses 48 measuring sites covering the whole territory of the Czech Republic; 38 of them are located at observatories of the Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute (28 at round-the-clock manned observatories, 10 at unmanned, automated observatories) and 10 are located at air contamination measuring points operated by the National Radiation Protection Institute and Regional Centres of the State Office for Nuclear Safety. The network operates in one of 3 modes: the standard mode, alert mode, and emergency mode. (P.A.)

  4. An analysis of legal warnings after drug approval in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriphiromya, Pakawadee; Theeraroungchaisri, Anuchai

    2015-02-01

    Drug risk management has many tools for minimizing risk and black-boxed warnings (BBWs) are one of those tools. Some serious adverse drug reactions (ADRs) emerge only after a drug is marketed and used in a larger population. In Thailand, additional legal warnings after drug approval, in the form of black-boxed warnings, may be applied. Review of their characteristics can assist in the development of effective risk mitigation. This study was a cross sectional review of all legal warnings imposed in Thailand after drug approval (2003-2012). Any boxed warnings for biological products and revised warnings which were not related to safety were excluded. Nine legal warnings were evaluated. Seven related to drugs classes and two to individual drugs. The warnings involved four main types of predictable ADRs: drug-disease interactions, side effects, overdose and drug-drug interactions. The average time from first ADRs reported to legal warnings implementation was 12 years. The triggers were from both safety signals in Thailand and regulatory measures in other countries outside Thailand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A Quantitative Analysis of Variability Warnings in Linux

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melo, Jean; Flesborg, Elvis; Brabrand, Claus

    2015-01-01

    In order to get insight into challenges with quality in highly-configurable software, we analyze one of the largest open source projects, the Linux kernel, and quantify basic properties of configuration-related warnings. We automatically analyze more than 20 thousand valid and distinct random...... configurations, in a computation that lasted more than a month. We count and classify a total of 400,000 warnings to get an insight in the distribution of warning types, and the location of the warnings. We run both on a stable and unstable version of the Linux kernel. The results show that Linux contains...

  6. Warning: you are being primed! The effect of a warning on the impact of subliminal ads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verwijmeren, T.; Karremans, J.C.; Bernritter, S.F.; Stroebe, W.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.

    2013-01-01

    As it has been demonstrated that subliminal advertising can affect consumers’ decisions - if the ad is goal relevant - the question rises whether consumers are able to shield themselves from subliminal influences. In the present research it was examined whether warning people of the presence of

  7. Warning: You are being primed! The effect of a warning on the impact of subliminal ads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verwijmeren, T.; Karremans, J.C.T.M.; Bernritter, S.F.; Stroebe, W.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.

    2013-01-01

    As it has been demonstrated that subliminal advertising can affect consumers' decisions – if the ad is goal relevant – the question rises whether consumers are able to shield themselves from subliminal influences. In the present research it was examined whether warning people of the presence of

  8. Towards an Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Vanacore, E. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Caribbean region (CR) has a documented history of large damaging earthquakes and tsunamis that have affected coastal areas, including the events of Jamaica in 1692, Virgin Islands in 1867, Puerto Rico in 1918, the Dominican Republic in 1946 and Haiti in 2010. There is clear evidence that tsunamis have been triggered by large earthquakes that deformed the ocean floor around the Caribbean Plate boundary. The CR is monitored jointly by national/regional/local seismic, geodetic and sea level networks. All monitoring institutions are participating in the UNESCO ICG/Caribe EWS, the purpose of this initiative is to minimize loss of life and destruction of property, and to mitigate against catastrophic economic impacts via promoting local research, real time (RT) earthquake, geodetic and sea level data sharing and improving warning capabilities and enhancing education and outreach strategies. Currently more than, 100 broad-band seismic, 65 sea levels and 50 GPS high rate stations are available in real or near real-time. These real-time streams are used by Local/Regional or Worldwide detection and warning institutions to provide earthquake source parameters in a timely manner. Currently, any Caribbean event detected to have a magnitude greater than 4.5 is evaluated, and sea level is measured, by the TWC for tsumanigenic potential. The regional cooperation is motivated both by research interests as well as geodetic, seismic and tsunami hazard monitoring and warning. It will allow the imaging of the tectonic structure of the Caribbean region to a high resolution which will consequently permit further understanding of the seismic source properties for moderate and large events and the application of this knowledge to procedures of civil protection. To reach its goals, the virtual network has been designed following the highest technical standards: BB sensors, 24 bits A/D converters with 140 dB dynamic range, real-time telemetry. Here we will discuss the state of the PR

  9. Observed activation status of lane departure warning and forward collision warning of Honda vehicles at dealership service centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reagan, Ian J; McCartt, Anne T

    2016-11-16

    There are little objective data on whether drivers with lane departure warning and forward collision warning systems actually use them, but self-report data indicate that lane departure warning may be used less and viewed less favorably than forward collision warning. The current study assessed whether the systems were turned on when drivers brought their vehicles to dealership service stations and whether the observational protocol is a feasible method for collecting similar data on various manufacturers' systems. Observations of 2013-2015 Honda Accords, 2014-2015 Odysseys, and 2015 CR-Vs occurred at 2 U.S. Honda dealerships for approximately 4 weeks during Summer 2015. Of the 265 vehicles observed to have the 2 systems, 87 (32.8%) had lane departure warning turned on. Accords were associated with a 66% increase in the likelihood that lane departure warning was turned on compared with Odysseys, but the rate was still only about 40% in Accords. In contrast, forward collision warning was turned on in all but one of the observed vehicles. Observations found that the activation rate was much higher for forward collision warning than lane departure warning. The observation method worked well and appears feasible for extending to other manufacturers.

  10. Enhanced chemical weapon warning via sensor fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaherty, Michael; Pritchett, Daniel; Cothren, Brian; Schwaiger, James

    2011-05-01

    Torch Technologies Inc., is actively involved in chemical sensor networking and data fusion via multi-year efforts with Dugway Proving Ground (DPG) and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). The objective of these efforts is to develop innovative concepts and advanced algorithms that enhance our national Chemical Warfare (CW) test and warning capabilities via the fusion of traditional and non-traditional CW sensor data. Under Phase I, II, and III Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) contracts with DPG, Torch developed the Advanced Chemical Release Evaluation System (ACRES) software to support non real-time CW sensor data fusion. Under Phase I and II SBIRs with DTRA in conjunction with the Edgewood Chemical Biological Center (ECBC), Torch is using the DPG ACRES CW sensor data fuser as a framework from which to develop the Cloud state Estimation in a Networked Sensor Environment (CENSE) data fusion system. Torch is currently developing CENSE to implement and test innovative real-time sensor network based data fusion concepts using CW and non-CW ancillary sensor data to improve CW warning and detection in tactical scenarios.

  11. Early Warning of El Nino Impacts on Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Hillbruner, C.; Budde, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Before and during the El Niño of 2015-2016, regular and frequent application of climate monitoring and seasonal forecasts enabled early warning of food insecurity in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. As it happened, drought associated with the quasi-El Niño of 2014 had already adversely impacted harvests in Central America, Haiti, and Southern Africa, so the effects of the El Niño of 2015-2016 were especially hard-hitting and particularly devastating to crop conditions and food security. In the case of Ethiopia, 2014 conditions were normal but there were record rainfall deficits in 2015, with consequent crop failure, inadequate forage, and sharply curtailed water availability. Combining such agro-climatological information with knowledge of household economies, livelihood systems, markets & trade, and health & nutrition, FEWS NET constructed scenarios of food insecurity eight months into the future, with monthly updates. These scenarios informed assistance programming by USAID and partners. Overall, FEWS NET estimates that at least 18 million people will be severely food insecure during 2015/16 as a direct result of the impact of El Nino on rainfall. However, in Ethiopia, the contrast with the 1982-1983 El Niño is dramatic; though the two events were climatically similar, the human impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño are much less, thanks not only to well-functioning early warning systems and large scale emergency response, but also improved social safety nets and lack of ongoing armed conflict. In southern Africa, El Nino resulted in extensive failed crops, with some areas of South Africa and Zimbabwe having insufficient rain to plant crops. Remote sensing products provided relevant information to depict the severity of rainfall and vegetation deficits. Likewise, in Central America and the Caribbean (Hispaniola), rainfall deficits were portrayed in the perspective of 30+ years of data.

  12. Application of the Haines Index in the fire warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalin, Lovro; Marija, Mokoric; Tomislav, Kozaric

    2016-04-01

    Croatia, as all Mediterranean countries, is strongly affected by large wildfires, particularly in the coastal region. In the last two decades the number and intensity of fires has been significantly increased, which is unanimously associated with climate change, e.g. global warming. More extreme fires are observed, and the fire-fighting season has been expanded to June and September. The meteorological support for fire protection and planning is therefore even more important. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia a comprehensive monitoring and warning system has been established. It includes standard components, such as short term forecast of Fire Weather Index (FWI), but long range forecast as well. However, due to more frequent hot and dry seasons, FWI index often does not provide additional information of extremely high fire danger, since it regularly takes the highest values for long periods. Therefore the additional tools have been investigated. One of widely used meteorological products is the Haines index (HI). It provides information of potential fire growth, taking into account only the vertical instability of the atmosphere, and not the state of the fuel. Several analyses and studies carried out at the Service confirmed the correlation of high HI values with large and extreme fires. The Haines index forecast has been used at the Service for several years, employing European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global prediction model, as well as the limited-area Aladin model. The verification results show that these forecast are reliable, when compared to radiosonde measurements. All these results provided the introduction of the additional fire warnings, that are issued by the Service's Forecast Department.

  13. Avoidance of cigarette pack health warnings among regular cigarette smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Olivia M; Attwood, Angela; O'Brien, Laura; Brooks, Sabrina; Hedge, Craig; Leonards, Ute; Munafò, Marcus R

    2014-03-01

    Previous research with adults and adolescents indicates that plain cigarette packs increase visual attention to health warnings among non-smokers and non-regular smokers, but not among regular smokers. This may be because regular smokers: (1) are familiar with the health warnings, (2) preferentially attend to branding, or (3) actively avoid health warnings. We sought to distinguish between these explanations using eye-tracking technology. A convenience sample of 30 adult dependent smokers participated in an eye-tracking study. Participants viewed branded, plain and blank packs of cigarettes with familiar and unfamiliar health warnings. The number of fixations to health warnings and branding on the different pack types were recorded. Analysis of variance indicated that regular smokers were biased towards fixating the branding rather than the health warning on all three pack types. This bias was smaller, but still evident, for blank packs, where smokers preferentially attended the blank region over the health warnings. Time-course analysis showed that for branded and plain packs, attention was preferentially directed to the branding location for the entire 10s of the stimulus presentation, while for blank packs this occurred for the last 8s of the stimulus presentation. Familiarity with health warnings had no effect on eye gaze location. Smokers actively avoid cigarette pack health warnings, and this remains the case even in the absence of salient branding information. Smokers may have learned to divert their attention away from cigarette pack health warnings. These findings have implications for cigarette packaging and health warning policy. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Web3DGIS-Based System for Reservoir Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

    OpenAIRE

    Huang Huang; Jianhua Ni; Yu Zhang; Tianlu Qian; Dingtao Shen; Jiechen Wang

    2016-01-01

    Landslides are the most frequent type of natural disaster, and they bring about large-scale damage and are a threat to human lives and infrastructure; therefore, the ability to conduct real-time monitoring and early warning is important. In this study, a Web3DGIS (Web3D geographic information systems) system for monitoring and forecasting landslides was developed using the Danjiangkou Reservoir area as a case study. The development of this technique involved system construction, functional de...

  15. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  16. Warning Model for Shallow Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lien-Kwei Chien

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the geophysical properties of the landslide-prone catchment of the Gaoping River in Taiwan were investigated using zones based on landslide history in conjunction with landslide analysis using a deterministic approach based on the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability model. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was selected as a simulation scenario to calibrate the combination of geophysical parameters in each zone before analyzing changes in the factor of safety (FS. Considering the amount of response time required for typhoons, suitable FS thresholds for landslide warnings are proposed for each town in the catchment area. Typhoon Fanapi of 2010 was used as a test scenario to verify the applicability of the FS as well as the efficacy of the cumulative rainfall thresholds derived in this study. Finally, the amount of response time provided by the FS thresholds in cases of yellow and red alerts was determined. All five of the landslide events reported by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby demonstrating its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of yellow and red alerts with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.

  17. Brake reactions of distracted drivers to pedestrian Forward Collision Warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbe, Nils

    2017-06-01

    Forward Collision Warning (FCW) can be effective in directing driver attention towards a conflict and thereby aid in preventing or mitigating collisions. FCW systems aiming at pedestrian protection have been introduced onto the market, yet an assessment of their safety benefits depends on the accurate modeling of driver reactions when the system is activated. This study contributes by quantifying brake reaction time and brake behavior (deceleration levels and jerk) to compare the effectiveness of an audio-visual warning only, an added haptic brake pulse warning, and an added Head-Up Display in reducing the frequency of collisions with pedestrians. Further, this study provides a detailed data set suited for the design of assessment methods for car-to-pedestrian FCW systems. Brake response characteristics were measured for heavily distracted drivers who were subjected to a single FCW event in a high-fidelity driving simulator. The drivers maintained a self-regulated speed of 30km/h in an urban area, with gaze direction diverted from the forward roadway by a secondary task. Collision rates and brake reaction times differed significantly across FCW settings. Brake pulse warnings resulted in the lowest number of collisions and the shortest brake reaction times (mean 0.8s, SD 0.29s). Brake jerk and deceleration were independent of warning type. Ninety percent of drivers exceeded a maximum deceleration of 3.6m/s 2 and a jerk of 5.3m/s 3 . Brake pulse warning was the most effective FCW interface for preventing collisions. In addition, this study presents the data required for driver modeling for car-to-pedestrian FCW similar to Euro NCAP's 2015 car-to-car FCW assessment. Practical applications: Vehicle manufacturers should consider the introduction of brake pulse warnings to their FCW systems. Euro NCAP could introduce an assessment that quantifies the safety benefits of pedestrian FCW systems and thereby aid the proliferation of effective systems. Copyright © 2017

  18. Establishment and Practical Application of Flood Warning Stage in Taiwan's River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Sheng-Hsueh; Chia Yeh, Keh-

    2017-04-01

    In the face of extreme flood events or the possible impact of climate change, non-engineering disaster prevention and early warning work is particularly important. Taiwan is an island topography with more than 3,900 meters of high mountains. The length of the river is less than 100 kilometers. Most of the watershed catchment time is less than 24 hours, which belongs to the river with steep slope and rapid flood. Every year in summer and autumn, several typhoon events invade Taiwan. Typhoons often result in rainfall events in excess of 100 mm/hr or 250 mm/3hr. In the face of Taiwan's terrain and extreme rainfall events, flooding is difficult to avoid. Therefore, most of the river has embankment protection, so that people do not have to face every year flooding caused by economic and life and property losses. However, the river embankment protection is limited. With the increase of the hydrological data, the design criteria for the embankment protection standards in the past was 100 year of flood return period and is now gradually reduced to 25 or 50 year of flood return period. The river authorities are not easy to rise the existing embankment height. The safety of the river embankment in Taiwan is determined by the establishment of the flood warning stage to cope with the possible increase in annual floods and the impact of extreme hydrological events. The flood warning stage is equal to the flood control elevation minus the flood rise rate multiply by the flood early warning time. The control elevation can be the top of the embankment, the design flood level of the river, the embankment gap of the river section, the height of the bridge beam bottom, etc. The flood rise rate is consider the factors such as hydrological stochastic and uncertain rainfall and the effect of flood discharge operation on the flood in the watershed catchment area. The maximum value of the water level difference between the two hours or five hours before the peak value of the analysis

  19. Earthquake Prediction Research In Iceland, Applications For Hazard Assessments and Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, R.

    Earthquake prediction research in Iceland, applications for hazard assessments and warnings. The first multinational earthquake prediction research project in Iceland was the Eu- ropean Council encouraged SIL project of the Nordic countries, 1988-1995. The path selected for this research was to study the physics of crustal processes leading to earth- quakes. It was considered that small earthquakes, down to magnitude zero, were the most significant for this purpose, because of the detailed information which they pro- vide both in time and space. The test area for the project was the earthquake prone region of the South Iceland seismic zone (SISZ). The PRENLAB and PRENLAB-2 projects, 1996-2000 supported by the European Union were a direct continuation of the SIL project, but with a more multidisciplinary approach. PRENLAB stands for "Earthquake prediction research in a natural labo- ratory". The basic objective was to advance our understanding in general on where, when and how dangerous NH10earthquake motion might strike. Methods were devel- oped to study crustal processes and conditions, by microearthquake information, by continuous GPS, InSAR, theoretical modelling, fault mapping and paleoseismology. New algorithms were developed for short term warnings. A very useful short term warning was issued twice in the year 2000, one for a sudden start of an eruption in Volcano Hekla February 26, and the other 25 hours before a second (in a sequence of two) magnitude 6.6 (Ms) earthquake in the South Iceland seismic zone in June 21, with the correct location and approximate size. A formal short term warning, although not going to the public, was also issued before a magnitude 5 earthquake in November 1998. In the presentation it will be shortly described what these warnings were based on. A general hazard assessmnets was presented in scientific journals 10-15 years ago assessing within a few kilometers the location of the faults of the two 2000 earthquakes and suggesting

  20. Collision warning system based on probability density functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broek, T.H.A. van den; Ploeg, J.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, a collision warning method between the host vehicle and target object(s) is studied. A probabilistic collision warning method is proposed, which is, in particular, useful for objects, e.g. vulnerable road users, which trajectories can rapidly change heading and/or velocity with

  1. 14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... to the terrain awareness and warning system audio and visual warnings. (d) Exceptions. Paragraphs (a... after March 29, 2002. Except as provided in paragraph (d) of this section, no person may operate a... minimum meets the requirements for Class B equipment in Technical Standard Order (TSO)-C151. (b) Airplanes...

  2. 49 CFR 571.125 - Standard No. 125; Warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL MOTOR VEHICLE SAFETY STANDARDS Federal... in motor vehicles and used to warn approaching traffic of the presence of a stopped vehicle, except... the driver activate the vehicular hazard warning signal lamps before leaving the vehicle to erect the...

  3. 49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION GRADE CROSSING SIGNAL SYSTEM SAFETY AND STATE ACTION PLANS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.211 Security of warning system apparatus...

  4. Multimodal warnings to enhance risk communication and safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haas, E.C.; Erp, J.B.F. van

    2014-01-01

    Multimodal warnings incorporate audio and/or skin-based (tactile) cues to supplement or replace visual cues in environments where the user’s visual perception is busy, impaired, or nonexistent. This paper describes characteristics of audio, tactile, and multimodal warning displays and their role in

  5. An exploration of public knowledge of warning signs for cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeney, Sinead; McKenna, Hugh; Fleming, Paul; McIlfatrick, Sonja

    2011-02-01

    Warning signs of cancer have long been used as an effective way to summarise and communicate early indications of cancer to the public. Given the increasing global burden of cancer, the communication of these warning signs to the public is more important than ever before. This paper presents part of a larger study which explored the attitudes, knowledge and behaviours of people in mid-life towards cancer prevention. The focus of this paper is on the assessment of the knowledge of members of the public aged between 35 and 54 years of age. A questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of the population listing 17 warning signs of cancer. These included the correct warning signs and distracter signs. Respondents were asked to correctly identify the seven warning signs. Findings show that respondents could identify 4.8 cancer warning signs correctly. Analysis by demographics shows that being female, being older, having a higher level of educational attainment and being in a higher socio-economic group are predictors of better level of knowledge of cancer warning signs. Recommendations are proffered with regard to better targeting, clarification and communication of cancer warning signs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. 21 CFR 501.17 - Animal food labeling warning statements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Animal food labeling warning statements. 501.17... (CONTINUED) ANIMAL DRUGS, FEEDS, AND RELATED PRODUCTS ANIMAL FOOD LABELING General Provisions § 501.17 Animal food labeling warning statements. (a) Self-pressurized containers. (1) The label of a food packaged in...

  7. A scheme for evaluating a local queue warning system.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botma, H. & Oei, H.-L.

    2018-01-01

    This article outlines a method of evaluating a 'local queue warning system', in principle intended only to warn drivers of unexpected congestion at known discontinuities of the road geomctry (bottleneck) and give them advisory speed indications. A prerequisite for installing this system is therefore

  8. 30 CFR 77.410 - Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices. 77... UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Safeguards for Mechanical Equipment § 77.410 Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices. (a) Mobile equipment such as front-end loaders, forklifts, tractors, graders, and trucks, except...

  9. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wächter

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

    Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.

    In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.

    In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  10. Warning Signs for Suicide: Theory, Research, and Clinical Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudd, M. David; Berman, Alan L.; Joiner, Thomas E., Jr.; Nock, Matthew K.; Silverman, Morton M.; Mandrusiak, Michael; Van Orden, Kimberly; Witte, Tracy

    2006-01-01

    The current article addresses the issue of warning signs for suicide, attempting to differentiate the construct from risk factors. In accordance with the characteristic features discussed, a consensus set of warning signs identified by the American Association of Suicidology working group are presented, along with a discussion of relevant clinical…

  11. The investigation of early warning signs of aggression in forensic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frans Fluttert; prof Berno van Meijel; Mieke Grypdonck; Bjørkly Stal; Mirjan van Leeuwen

    2012-01-01

    Aims and objectives. The Forensic Early Warning Signs of Aggression Inventory (FESAI) was developed to assist nurses and patients in identifying early warning signs and constructing individual early detection plans (EDP) for the prevention of aggressive incidents. The aims of this research were as

  12. The Mental Health Counselor and "Duty to Warn."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietrofesa, John J.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Reviews background and case histories surrounding legal concept of "duty to warn" and confidentiality limits of counseling. Discusses professional, ethical, and legal responsibilities of mental health counselors and identifies steps to follow for counselors who have to warn potential victims of danger from their clients. (Author/ABL)

  13. The Effect of Cancer Warning Statements on Alcohol Consumption Intentions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettigrew, Simone; Jongenelis, Michelle I.; Glance, David; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Pratt, Iain S.; Slevin, Terry; Liang, Wenbin; Wakefield, Melanie

    2016-01-01

    In response to increasing calls to introduce warning labels on alcoholic beverages, this study investigated the potential effectiveness of alcohol warning statements designed to increase awareness of the alcohol-cancer link. A national online survey was administered to a diverse sample of Australian adult drinkers (n = 1,680). Along with…

  14. Red warning for air pollution in China: Exploring residents' perceptions of the first two red warnings in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hanping; Wang, Fangping; Niu, Chence; Wang, Han; Zhang, Xiaoxue

    2018-02-01

    Air pollution early warnings have been issued in China to mitigate the effects of high pollution days. Public perceptions and views about early warning signals can affect individual behaviors and play a major role in the public's response to air pollution risks. This study examined public attitudes and responses to the first two red warnings for air pollution in Beijing in 2015. An online survey was sent out, and 664 respondents (response rate = 90%) provided their perspectives on the red warnings. Descriptive statistics, sign tests and binary logit models were used to analyze the data. More than half of the respondents reported that their life and work were affected by the red warning in December 2015. In contrast to their perceptions about the second red warning period, the public thought that the first red warning should have been issued earlier and that the number of consecutive days of warnings should have been reduced. The respondents also recommended that instead of reducing the number of red warnings, the red warning emergency measures should be adjusted. Specifically, the public preferred the installation of air purifiers in schools rather than closing schools and strengthening road flushing and dust pollution controls over restrictions on driving. Data analyses were conducted to examine the affected groups and different groups' perceptions of the necessity of implementing emergency measures. The results indicated that men and more educated respondents were more likely to be affected by driving limitations, and men were less supportive of these limitations. The age and education of respondents were significantly negatively associated with the opinion that schools should be closed, whereas wealthier respondents were more supportive of school closings. The finding of a negative attitude among the public toward the first two red warnings may be used to help local governments modify protective measures and pollution mitigation initiatives to increase

  15. Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

    2017-04-01

    During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena

  16. Car Gestures - Advisory warning using additional steering wheel angles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maag, Christian; Schneider, Norbert; Lübbeke, Thomas; Weisswange, Thomas H; Goerick, Christian

    2015-10-01

    Advisory warning systems (AWS) notify the driver about upcoming hazards. This is in contrast to the majority of currently deployed advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) that manage emergency situations. The target of this study is to investigate the effectiveness, acceptance, and controllability of a specific kind of AWS that uses the haptic information channel for warning the driver. This could be beneficial, as alternatives for using the visual modality can help to reduce the risk of visual overload. The driving simulator study (N=24) compared an AWS based on additional steering wheel angle control (Car Gestures) with a visual warning presented in a simulated head-up display (HUD). Both types of warning were activated 3.5s before the hazard object was reached. An additional condition of unassisted driving completed the experimental design. The subjects encountered potential hazards in a variety of urban situations (e.g. a pedestrian standing on the curbs). For the investigated situations, subjective ratings show that a majority of drivers prefer visual warnings over haptic information via gestures. An analysis of driving behavior indicates that both warning approaches guide the vehicle away from the potential hazard. Whereas gestures lead to a faster lateral driving reaction (compared to HUD warnings), the visual warnings result in a greater safety benefit (measured by the minimum distance to the hazard object). A controllability study with gestures in the wrong direction (i.e. leading toward the hazard object) shows that drivers are able to cope with wrong haptic warnings and safety is not reduced compared to unassisted driving as well as compared to (correct) haptic gestures and visual warnings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

    2016-04-01

    To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and

  18. Early warning of climate tipping points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenton, Timothy M.

    2011-07-01

    A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.

  19. Ionizing-radiation warning - Supplementary symbol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This International Standard specifies the symbol to warn of the presence of a dangerous level of ionizing radiation from a high-level sealed radioactive source that can cause death or serious injury if handled carelessly. This symbol is not intended to replace the basic ionizing radiation symbol [ISO 361, ISO 7010:2003, Table 1 (Reference number W003)], but to supplement it by providing further information on the danger associated with the source and the necessity for untrained or uninformed members of the public to stay away from it. This symbol is recommended for use with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Category 1, 2, and 3 sealed radioactive sources. These sources are defined by the IAEA as having the ability to cause death or serious injuries. The paper informs about scope, shape, proportions and colour of the symbol, and application of the symbol. An annex provides the technical specifications of the symbol

  20. Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are increasingly applied to mitigate the risks posed by natural hazards. To compare the effect of EWS with alternative risk reduction measures and to optimize their design and operation, their reliability and effectiveness must be quantified. In the present contribution, a framework approach to the evaluation of threshold-based EWS for natural hazards is presented. The system reliability is classically represented by the Probability of Detection (POD) and Probability of False Alarms (PFA). We demonstrate how the EWS effectiveness, which is a measure of risk reduction, can be formulated as a function of POD and PFA. To model the EWS and compute the reliability, we develop a framework based on Bayesian Networks, which is further extended to a decision graph, facilitating the optimization of the warning system. In a case study, the framework is applied to the assessment of an existing debris flow EWS. The application demonstrates the potential of the framework for identifying the important factors influencing the effectiveness of the EWS and determining optimal warning strategies and system configurations. - Highlights: • Warning systems are increasingly applied measures to reduce natural hazard risks. • Bayesian Networks (BN) are powerful tools to quantify warning system's reliability. • The effectiveness is defined to assess the optimality of warning systems. • By extending BNs to decision graphs, the optimal warning strategy is identified. • Sensors positioning significantly influence the effectiveness of warning systems

  1. Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

    2010-12-01

    Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology

  2. A unique radiation area monitoring system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, P.C.; Allen, G.C.

    1978-01-01

    The Remote Area Monitoring Systems (RAMS) monitors four radiation areas with two independent systems in each area. Each system consists of power supplies, four ionization chambers, and four analog and digital circuits. The first system controls the warning beacons, horns, annunciation panel and interlocks. The second system presents a quantitative dose rate indication at the console and in the radiation area

  3. Impact of a health safety warning and prior authorisation on the use of piroxicam: a time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carracedo-Martínez, Eduardo; Pia-Morandeira, Agustin; Figueiras, Adolfo

    2012-03-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the quantitative changes in systemic use of piroxicam after the issue of a health safety warning about its risks and the subsequent implementation of prior authorisation. We determined the number of monthly daily defined doses/1000 inhabitants/day (DHDs) of piroxicam in the period 2005-2008 in a health area in Spain. The data were analysed graphically, and the impact of the safety warning and introduction of prior authorisation were estimated by using segmented regression analysis. The graph showed that the number of DHDs of piroxicam was stable both before and after the health safety warning but registered a very marked decrease after implementation of prior authorisation, after which DHDs of piroxicam remained stable at a 98% inferior level compared with previous to prior authorisation. Segmented regression analysis showed no statistically significant immediate jump in piroxicam utilisation after the safety warning nor a change in the slope afterwards, but it did show a significant immediate jump after prior authorisation. Population exposure to systemic piroxicam remained unaffected by a previous health safety warning but declined sharply after the introduction of prior authorisation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. EURADOS intercomparison 2006 to harmonise European early warning dosimetry systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dombrowski, H.; Neumaier, S.; Thompson, I. M. G.; Wissmann, F.

    2009-01-01

    In 2006, the European Radiation Dosimetry (EURADOS) Working Group on Environmental Radiation Monitoring (WG3) organised a third European intercomparison of dosimetry systems operated in national early warning networks. Similar to the intercomparisons in 1999 and 2002, the main aim of this exercise was to support the process of harmonisation of area monitoring in Europe by providing the network operators with basic information on the calibration and performance of their dosimetry systems. In order to characterise these systems, their following basic parameters were investigated: the response to terrestrial and cosmic radiation, the detectors' inherent background, the response at low dose rates, the energy dependence of the response as well as the sensitivity of the detector systems to small changes of the dose rate in a natural environmental radiation field. In the 2006 EURADOS intercomparison, scientists from seven countries participated to study the characteristics of 11 detector systems. All results are presented in terms of the operational quantity ambient dose equivalent, H * (10). The advent of this quantity has caused the development of new detector systems for area monitoring. Some of these new systems participated in a EURADOS intercomparison for the first time. The results are consistently presented together with uncertainties so that statistical effects can be distinguished from real detector features, which improves the interpretation of the results. By using the results of this intercomparison, some detectors were re-calibrated. The achievable improvements concerning harmonisation in dose-rate measurements in the natural environment are discussed. (authors)

  5. Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

  6. Developing and testing an Early Warning System for Non Indigenous Species and Ballast Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magaletti, Erika; Garaventa, Francesca; David, Matej; Castriota, Luca; Kraus, Romina; Luna, Gian Marco; Silvestri, Cecilia; Forte, Cosmo; Bastianini, Mauro; Falautano, Manuela; Maggio, Teresa; Rak, Giulietta; Gollasch, Stephan

    2018-03-01

    This paper describes the methodological approach used for the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Non Indigenous Species (NIS) and ballast water management and summarizes the results obtained. The specific goals of the EWS are firstly to warn vessels to prevent loading of ballast water when critical biological conditions occur in ports and surrounding areas i.e. mass development or blooms of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens (HAOP). Secondly, to warn environmental and health authorities when NIS or pathogens are present in ports or surrounding areas to enable an early response and an implementation of remediation measures. The EWS is designed to be used for implementing various parallel obligations, by taking into consideration different legal scopes, associated information and decision-making needs. The EWS was elaborated, tested in the Adriatic Sea and illustrated by two case studies. Although the EWS was developed with an Adriatic Sea focus, it is presented in a format so that it may be used as a model when establishing similar systems in other locations. The role of the various actors is discussed and recommendations on further developments of the EWS are presented. It was concluded that the EWS is a suitable tool to reduce the spread of potentially harmful and ballast water mediated species.

  7. Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

    2017-09-01

    The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

  8. Designing Fatigue Warning Systems: The perspective of professional drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Fanxing; Li, Shuling; Cao, Lingzhi; Peng, Qijia; Li, Musen; Wang, Chunhui; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    Professional drivers have been characterized as experiencing heavy fatigue resulting from long driving time in their daily work. This study aimed to explore the potential demand of Fatigue Warning Systems (FWSs) among professional drivers as a means of reducing the danger of fatigue driving and to examine their opinions regarding the design of FWSs. Six focus groups with 35 participants and a questionnaire survey with 600 respondents were conducted among Chinese truck and taxi drivers to collect qualitative and quantitative data concerning the current situation of fatigue driving and opinions regarding the design of FWSs. The results revealed that both truck and taxi drivers had a positive attitude toward FWSs, and they hoped this system could not only monitor and warn them regarding their fatigue but also somewhat relieve their fatigue before they could stop and rest. As for warning signals, participants preferred auditory warnings, as opposed to visual, vibrotactile or electric stimuli. Interestingly, it was proposed that verbal warnings involving the information regarding consequences of fatigue driving or the wishes of drivers' family members would be more effective. Additionally, different warning patterns, including graded, single and continuous warnings, were discussed in the focus group. Finally, the participants proposed many other suggestions, as well as their concerns regarding FWSs, which will provide valuable information for companies who wish to develop FWSs for professional drivers. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Comparing Alcohol Marketing and Alcohol Warning Message Policies Across Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Cukier, Samantha N; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2017-08-24

    In order to reduce harms from alcohol, evidence-based policies are to be introduced and sustained. To facilitate the dissemination of policies that reduce alcohol-related harms by documenting, comparing, and sharing information on effective alcohol polices related to restrictions on alcohol marketing and alcohol warning messaging in 10 Canadian provinces. Team members developed measurable indicators to assess policies on (a) restrictions on alcohol marketing, and (b) alcohol warning messaging. Indicators were peer-reviewed by three alcohol policy experts, refined, and data were collected, submitted for validation by provincial experts, and scored independently by two team members. The national average score was 52% for restrictions on marketing policies and 18% for alcohol warning message policies. Most provinces had marketing regulations that went beyond the federal guidelines with penalties for violating marketing regulations. The provincial liquor boards' web pages focused on product promotion, and there were few restrictions on sponsorship activities. No province has implemented alcohol warning labels, and Ontario was the sole province to have legislated warning signs at all points-of-sale. Most provinces provided a variety of warning signs to be displayed voluntarily at points-of-sale; however, the quality of messages varied. Conclusions/Importance: There is extensive alcohol marketing with comparatively few messages focused on the potential harms associated with alcohol. It is recommended that governments collaborate with multiple stakeholders to maximize the preventive impact of restrictions on alcohol marketing and advertising, and a broader implementation of alcohol warning messages.

  10. Predictors for the Number of Warning Information Sources During Tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Zhen; Luo, Jianjun; Liang, Daan; Nejat, Ali

    2017-04-01

    People may receive tornado warnings from multiple information sources, but little is known about factors that affect the number of warning information sources (WISs). This study examined predictors for the number of WISs with a telephone survey on randomly sampled residents in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri, approximately 1 year after both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5) in 2011. The survey included 1006 finished interviews and the working sample included 903 respondents. Poisson regression and Zero-Inflated Poisson regression showed that older age and having an emergency plan predicted more WISs in both cities. Education, marital status, and gender affected the possibilities of receiving warnings and the number of WISs either in Joplin or in Tuscaloosa. The findings suggest that social disparity affects the access to warnings not only with respect to the likelihood of receiving any warnings but also with respect to the number of WISs. In addition, historical and social contexts are important for examining predictors for the number of WISs. We recommend that the number of WISs should be regarded as an important measure to evaluate access to warnings in addition to the likelihood of receiving warnings. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:168-172).

  11. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  12. Information dissemination analysis of different media towards the application for disaster pre-warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong; Zhang, Bo

    2014-01-01

    Knowing the information dissemination mechanisms of different media and having an efficient information dissemination plan for disaster pre-warning plays a very important role in reducing losses and ensuring the safety of human beings. In this paper we established models of information dissemination for six typical information media, including short message service (SMS), microblogs, news portals, cell phones, television, and oral communication. Then, the information dissemination capability of each medium concerning individuals of different ages, genders, and residential areas was simulated, and the dissemination characteristics were studied. Finally, radar graphs were used to illustrate comprehensive assessments of the six media; these graphs show directly the information dissemination characteristics of all media. The models and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of information dissemination for the purpose of disaster pre-warning and for formulating emergency plans which help to reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in a disaster.

  13. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) - Application in Early Warning Systems for Natural Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In conjunction with the Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element (-DE) [2] these data formats can be used for warning message dissemination in early warning systems for natural hazards. Application took place in the DEWS (Distance Early Warning System) [3] project where CAP serves as central message format containing both human readable warnings and structured data for automatic processing by message receivers. In particular the spatial reference capabilities are of paramount importance both in CAP and EDXL. Affected areas are addressable via geo codes like HASC (Hierarchical Administrative Subdivision Codes) [4] or UN/LOCODE [5] but also with arbitrary polygons that can be directly generated out of GML [6]. For each affected area standardized criticality values (urgency, severity and certainty) have to be set but also application specific key-value-pairs like estimated time of arrival or maximum inundation height can be specified. This enables - together with multilingualism, message aggregation and message conversion for different dissemination channels - the generation of user-specific tailored warning messages. [1] CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap [2] EDXL-DE, http://docs.oasis-open.org/emergency/edxl-de/v1.0/EDXL-DE_Spec_v1.0.pdf [3] DEWS, http://www.dews-online.org [4] HASC, "Administrative Subdivisions of Countries: A Comprehensive World Reference, 1900 Through 1998" ISBN 0-7864-0729-8 [5] UN/LOCODE, http://www.unece.org/cefact/codesfortrade/codes_index.htm [6] GML, http://www.opengeospatial.org/standards/gml

  14. Health warning messages on tobacco products: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, David

    2011-09-01

    To review evidence on the impact of health warning messages on tobacco packages. Articles were identified through electronic databases of published articles, as well as relevant 'grey' literature using the following keywords: health warning, health message, health communication, label and labelling in conjunction with at least one of the following terms: smoking, tobacco, cigarette, product, package and pack. Relevant articles available prior to January 2011 were screened for six methodological criteria. A total of 94 original original articles met inclusion criteria, including 72 quantitative studies, 16 qualitative studies, 5 studies with both qualitative and qualitative components, and 1 review paper: Canada (n=35), USA (n=29) Australia (n=16), UK (n=13), The Netherlands (n=3), France (n=3), New Zealand (n=3), Mexico (n=3), Brazil (n=2), Belgium (n=1), other European countries (n=10), Norway (n=1), Malaysia (n=1) and China (n=1). The evidence indicates that the impact of health warnings depends upon their size and whereas obscure text-only warnings appear to have little impact, prominent health warnings on the face of packages serve as a prominent source of health information for smokers and non-smokers, can increase health knowledge and perceptions of risk and can promote smoking cessation. The evidence also indicates that comprehensive warnings are effective among youth and may help to prevent smoking initiation. Pictorial health warnings that elicit strong emotional reactions are significantly more effective. Health warnings on packages are among the most direct and prominent means of communicating with smokers. Larger warnings with pictures are significantly more effective than smaller, text-only messages.

  15. Setting up a French national flash flood warning system for ungauged catchments based on the AIGA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javelle Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Occurring at small temporal and spatial scales, flash floods (FF can cause severe economic damages and human losses. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French Ministry in charge of Ecology has decided to set up a national FF warning system over the French territory. This automated system will be run by the SCHAPI, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting, providing warnings for fast-responding ungauged catchments (area ranging from ~10 to ~1000 km2. It will therefore be complementary to the SCHAPI’s national “vigilance” system which concerns only gauged catchments. The FF warning system to be implemented in 2017 will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014. This method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr. It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km2 resolution to reference flood quantiles of different (e.g., 2-, 10- and 50-year return periods. Therefore the system characterizes in real time the severity of ongoing events by the range of the return period estimated by AIGA at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France and takes into account the baseflow and the initial soil humidity conditions to better estimate the basin response to rainfall inputs. To meet the requirements of the future FF warning system, the AIGA method has been extended to the whole French territory (except Corsica and overseas French territories. The calibration, regionalization and validation procedures of the hydrologic model were carried out using data for ~700 hydrometric stations from the 2002-2015 period. Performance of the warning system was evaluated with various contingency criteria (e.g., probability of detection and success rate. Furthermore, specific

  16. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceccato Pietro

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to

  17. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  18. Boosting flood warning schemes with fast emulator of detailed hydrodynamic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellos, V.; Carbajal, J. P.; Leitao, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Floods are among the most destructive catastrophic events and their frequency has incremented over the last decades. To reduce flood impact and risks, flood warning schemes are installed in flood prone areas. Frequently, these schemes are based on numerical models which quickly provide predictions of water levels and other relevant observables. However, the high complexity of flood wave propagation in the real world and the need of accurate predictions in urban environments or in floodplains hinders the use of detailed simulators. This sets the difficulty, we need fast predictions that meet the accuracy requirements. Most physics based detailed simulators although accurate, will not fulfill the speed demand. Even if High Performance Computing techniques are used (the magnitude of required simulation time is minutes/hours). As a consequence, most flood warning schemes are based in coarse ad-hoc approximations that cannot take advantage a detailed hydrodynamic simulation. In this work, we present a methodology for developing a flood warning scheme using an Gaussian Processes based emulator of a detailed hydrodynamic model. The methodology consists of two main stages: 1) offline stage to build the emulator; 2) online stage using the emulator to predict and generate warnings. The offline stage consists of the following steps: a) definition of the critical sites of the area under study, and the specification of the observables to predict at those sites, e.g. water depth, flow velocity, etc.; b) generation of a detailed simulation dataset to train the emulator; c) calibration of the required parameters (if measurements are available). The online stage is carried on using the emulator to predict the relevant observables quickly, and the detailed simulator is used in parallel to verify key predictions of the emulator. The speed gain given by the emulator allows also to quantify uncertainty in predictions using ensemble methods. The above methodology is applied in real

  19. Design of vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yangyang; Wang, Ying

    2018-05-01

    This paper mainly designs a low cost, high-accuracy, micro-miniaturization, and digital display and acousto-optic alarm features of the vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system that based on MCU AT89C51. The vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system includes forward anti-collision warning system, auto parking systems and reversing anti-collision radar system. It mainly develops on the basis of ultrasonic distance measurement, its performance is reliable, thus the driving safety is greatly improved and the parking security and efficiency enhance enormously.

  20. Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of a rockfall warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bründl, Michael; Sättele, Martina; Krautblatter, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Rockslides and rockfalls can pose high risk to human settlements and traffic infrastructure. In addition to structural mitigation measures like rockfall nets, warning systems are increasingly installed to reduce rockfall risks. Whereas for structural mitigation measures with reducing effects on the spatial extent a structured evaluation method is existing, no or only few approaches to assess the effectiveness for warning systems are known. Especially for higher magnitude rockfalls structural mitigation measures are not effective, and reliable early warning systems will be essential in future. In response to that, we developed a classification and a framework to assess the reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems (Sättele et al, 2015a; 2016). Here, we demonstrate an application for the rockfall warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012 (Sättele et al., 2015b). We show that it is necessary to design such a warning system as fail-safe construction, which has to incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. With a hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting an event and on initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on related intervention cost. We conclude that it is possible to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of warning systems, which helps to optimize mitigation strategies against rockfall events. References Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Reliability and effectiveness of warning systems for natural hazards: concept and application to debris flow warning, Rel. Eng. Syst. Safety, 142, 192-202, 2015a. Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: How reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 605, 1-14, 2015b. Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and

  1. Development of earthquake early warning system using real time signal of broadband seismogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunawan, Hendar; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan; Harjadi, Prih

    2012-01-01

    Earthquake pose serious threat of live and properties for urban area near subduction zone offshore and active fault on land. Jakarta and Bandung is an example of big city that no system of Earthquake early warning (EEW) event very high urbanization, and has many important infra structure in the area. The capital city is potentially high risk ground shaking. EEW can be usefull tool for reducing earthquake hazard, if spatial relation between cities and earthquake source is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to response early warning message. An EEW and rapid response system can provide the critical information needed to minimized lost of live and property and direct rescue. Earthquake ground shaking with magnitude M>6.0 from zone of Megathrust, southern of West Java should potentially damage in the area of west java especially Bandung and Jakarta City. This research development of EEW parameter such as amplitude displacement (Pd), rapid magnitude determination (M) and Peak ground Velocity (PGV). We explore the practical approach to EEW with the use of Broadband seismogram signal. Time effective EEW which epicenter from megathrust zone has potential to provide EEW in the area of west java such as Jakarta first ground shaking more or less 60 second later and strong shaking 118 second after EEW Alarm on CISI Station. EEW notification at potentially damage in the area of west java can be predicted from the characteristic of Pd > 0.5 cm, M> 6 and PGV > 10 cm/sec. GIS as a tool for presentation of hazard mapping in the affected area.

  2. Shake Warning: Helping People Stay Safe With Lots of Small Boxes in the Ground to Warn Them About Strong Shaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reusch, M.

    2017-12-01

    A group of people at schools are joining with the group of people in control of making pictures of the state of rocks on the ground and water in our land. They are working on a plan to help all people be safe in the case of very big ground shaking (when ground breaks in sight or under ground). They will put many small boxes all over the states in the direction of where the sun sets to look for the first shake that might be a sign of an even bigger shake to come. They tell a big computer (with much power) in several large cities in those states. These computers will decide if the first shake is a sign of a very large and close ground shake, a far-away ground shake, a small but close ground shake, or even just a sign of a shake that people wanted to make. If it is a sign of a close and really big shake, then the computers will tell the phones and computers of many people to help them take safe steps before the big shaking arrives where they are. This warning might be several seconds or maybe a couple of minutes. People will be able to hide, take cover, and hold on under tables and desks in case things fall from walls and places up high in their home and work. Doctors will be able to pause hard work and boxes that move people up and down in homes, businesses, and stores will be able to stop on the next floor and open their doors to let people out and not get stuck. It will help slow down trains to be safe and not fly off of the track as well as it will help to shut off water and air that warms homes and is used for when you make food hot. To make this plan become real, people who work for these groups are putting more small boxes in areas where there are not enough and that there are many people. They are also putting small boxes in places where there are no boxes but the big shake might come from that direction. There are problems to get past such as needing many more small boxes, more people to help with this plan, and getting all people who live in these areas to

  3. Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold

  4. Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

    2012-12-01

    A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will

  5. Drought early warning system in I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samadi, Sina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila

    2004-01-01

    Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate; it occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. It occurs in high as well as low rainfall areas. Drought is the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation received over an extended period of time, usually a season or more in length, although other climatic factors (such as high temperatures, high winds, and low relative humidity) are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate the severity of the event. Most parts of the 1. R. of Iran have a high degree of aridity and pronounced rainfall variability in large parts of their territories and are therefore highly vulnerable to drought. Therefore, drought is one of greatest natural disasters in our country. Among all natural disasters, droughts occur the most frequently, have the longest duration, cover the largest area, and cause the greatest losses in agricultural production. The quantification of impacts and the provision of disaster relief are far more difficult tasks for drought than they are for other natural hazards. Since, the drought is a normal part of climate, it is difficult to determine its onset, development, and end. This fact emphasizes the importance of developing comprehensive monitoring or early warning systems. Drought prediction (monthly, seasonal, or yearly trends) is particularly useful for the drought planning and mitigation. Drought Early Warning System is applied as a pilot study during the last two years. The NDEWSI is based on the monitoring drought indices, such as SPI, Palmer and NDVI, and preparedness, where will be discussed in this paper. In this paper, we have presented a brief drought analysis using the SPI and demonstrated its potential use for drought analysis with minimal data requirements. It is our view that development of a drought monitoring system, based largely on meteorological and climatic information, can be a great help for early assessment of drought impacts in

  6. Early warnings of heart rate deterioration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Vania G; Nabney, Ian T

    2016-08-01

    Hospitals can experience difficulty in detecting and responding to early signs of patient deterioration leading to late intensive care referrals, excess mortality and morbidity, and increased hospital costs. Our study aims to explore potential indicators of physiological deterioration by the analysis of vital-signs. The dataset used comprises heart rate (HR) measurements from MIMIC II waveform database, taken from six patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and diagnosed with severe sepsis. Different indicators were considered: 1) generic early warning indicators used in ecosystems analysis (autocorrelation at-1-lag (ACF1), standard deviation (SD), skewness, kurtosis and heteroskedasticity) and 2) entropy analysis (kernel entropy and multi scale entropy). Our preliminary findings suggest that when a critical transition is approaching, the equilibrium state changes what is visible in the ACF1 and SD values, but also by the analysis of the entropy. Entropy allows to characterize the complexity of the time series during the hospital stay and can be used as an indicator of regime shifts in a patient's condition. One of the main problems is its dependency of the scale used. Our results demonstrate that different entropy scales should be used depending of the level of entropy verified.

  7. Flood forecasting and warning systems in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali Awan, Shaukat

    2004-01-01

    Meteorologically, there are two situations which may cause three types of floods in Indus Basin in Pakistan: i) Meteorological Situation for Category-I Floods when the seasonal low is a semi permanent weather system situated over south eastern Balochistan, south western Punjab, adjoining parts of Sindh get intensified and causes the moisture from the Arabian Sea to be brought up to upper catchments of Chenab and Jhelum rivers. (ii) Meteorological Situation for Category-11 and Category-111 Floods, which is linked with monsoon low/depression. Such monsoon systems originate in Bay of Bengal region and then move across India in general west/north westerly direction arrive over Rajasthan or any of adjoining states of India. Flood management in Pakistan is multi-functional process involving a number of different organizations. The first step in the process is issuance of flood forecast/warning, which is performed by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) utilizing satellite cloud pictures and quantitative precipitation measurement radar data, in addition to the conventional weather forecasting facilities. For quantitative flood forecasting, hydrological data is obtained through the Provincial Irrigation Department and WAPDA. Furthermore, improved rainfall/runoff and flood routing models have been developed to provide more reliable and explicit flood information to a flood prone population.(Author)

  8. Russian eruption warning systems for aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, C.; Girina, O.; Senyukov, S.; Rybin, A.; Osiensky, J.; Izbekov, P.; Ferguson, G.

    2009-01-01

    More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  9. Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier; hide

    2013-01-01

    Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at

  10. 76 FR 36627 - Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-22

    ...The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is amending its regulations to add a new requirement for the display of health warnings on cigarette packages and in cigarette advertisements. This rule implements a provision of the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (Tobacco Control Act) that requires FDA to issue regulations requiring color graphics, depicting the negative health consequences of smoking, to accompany the nine new textual warning statements required under the Tobacco Control Act. The Tobacco Control Act amends the Federal Cigarette Labeling and Advertising Act (FCLAA) to require each cigarette package and advertisement to bear one of nine new textual warning statements. This final rule specifies the color graphic images that must accompany each of the nine new textual warning statements.

  11. Ten Warning Signs Your Older Family Member May Need Help

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Warning Signs Your Older Family Member May Need Help Changes in physical and cognitive abilities that may ... and their family members, friends, and caregivers. To help in determining when an older adult may need ...

  12. Annan warns of 'content divide' between rich and poor

    CERN Multimedia

    Dickson, D

    2003-01-01

    "The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, warned today (10 December) that a "content divide" is threatening to deprive developing countries of the full benefits offered by information and communications technologies (ICTs)" (1 page)

  13. The Telemetric Early Warning Environmental Radiation Monitoring System of Cyprus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christofides, S [Medical Physics Department, Nicosia General Hospital, Nicosia (Cyprus)

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents the hardware design, the development of the software and the use of the Telemetric Early Warning Environmental Radiation Monitoring System (TEWERMS) of Cyprus. (author). 3 refs, 6 figs.

  14. Test of thermal shields for early warning station detectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jesper

    1997-01-01

    The properties of thermal shields around NaI crystal scintillators for early warning stations have been checked in order to assure that external temperature variations cannot influence the stability of the measurements....

  15. Report on dynamic speed harmonization and queue warning algorithm design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-02-01

    This report provides a detailed description of the algorithms that will be used to generate harmonized recommended speeds : and queue warning information in the proposed Intelligent Network Flow Optimization (INFLO) prototype. This document : describ...

  16. Drug Abuse Warning Network US (DAWN-NS-1994)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) survey is designed to capture data on emergency department (ED) episodes that are induced by or related to the use of an...

  17. Drug Abuse Warning Network US (DAWN-NS-1997)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) survey is designed to capture data on emergency department (ED) episodes that are induced by or related to the use of an...

  18. Required warnings for cigarette packages and advertisements. Final rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-22

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is amending its regulations to add a new requirement for the display of health warnings on cigarette packages and in cigarette advertisements. This rule implements a provision of the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (Tobacco Control Act) that requires FDA to issue regulations requiring color graphics, depicting the negative health consequences of smoking, to accompany the nine new textual warning statements required under the Tobacco Control Act. The Tobacco Control Act amends the Federal Cigarette Labeling and Advertising Act (FCLAA) to require each cigarette package and advertisement to bear one of nine new textual warning statements. This final rule specifies the color graphic images that must accompany each of the nine new textual warning statements.

  19. Paradoxical Effects of Warning in the Production of Children's False Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Prete, Francesco; Mirandola, Chiara; Konishi, Mahiko; Cornoldi, Cesare; Ghetti, Simona

    2014-01-01

    The effects of warning on false recognition and associated subjective experience of false recollection and familiarity were investigated in 7-to 13-year-old children and young adults (N = 259) using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Two warning conditions (warning with an example of a critical lure and warning without an example of a…

  20. Communication of emergency public warnings: A social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mileti, D.S. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (USA)); Sorensen, J.H. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA))

    1990-08-01

    More than 200 studies of warning systems and warning response were reviewed for this social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment of communication of emergency public warnings. The major findings are as follows. First, variations in the nature and content of warnings have a large impact on whether or not the public heeds the warning. Relevant factors include the warning source; warning channel; the consistency, credibility, accuracy, and understandability of the message; and the warning frequency. Second, characteristics of the population receiving the warning affect warning response. These include social characteristics such as gender, ethnicity and age, social setting characteristics such as stage of life or family context, psychological characteristics such as fatalism or risk perception, and knowledge characteristics such as experience or training. Third, many current myths about public response to emergency warning are at odds with knowledge derived from field investigations. Some of these myths include the keep it simple'' notion, the cry wolf'' syndrome, public panic and hysteria, and those concerning public willingness to respond to warnings. Finally, different methods of warning the public are not equally effective at providing an alert and notification in different physical and social settings. Most systems can provide a warning given three or more hours of available warning time. Special systems such as tone-alert radios are needed to provide rapid warning. 235 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.

  1. Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2013-10-01

    Landslide early warning systems (EWSs) have to be implemented in areas with large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements (e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable signal levels of deployed sensors before being established) and specific issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23 monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual models.

  2. Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

  3. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2014-10-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

  4. Number of warning information sources and decision making during tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan

    2015-03-01

    Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. PICTORICAL WARNING PADA KEMASAN ROKOK: KOMUNIKASI PERSUASIF DALAM KAMPANYE KESEHATAN

    OpenAIRE

    Sherly Hindra Negoro

    2016-01-01

    Smoking has became the serious problem which always to be the classical dynamic of health communication’s field. Through health campaign by using pictorical warning in cigarette packs, Indonesian Government has priority to reduce the number of smokers in Indonesia. Pictorical warning in cigarette packs was regard as one of communication strategic for implementing. Health campaign has outcome that could change the health behavior for the persuadee. Visualization by using image b...

  6. Improving the effectiveness of nighttime temporary traffic control warning devices, volume 2 : evaluation of nighttime mobile warning lights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Vehicle-mounted warning lights for nighttime mobile highway operations provide critical protection to workers and the driving : public. Alerting the traveling public of the approaching work activity and providing guidance is vital to maintaining safe...

  7. Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

  8. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

    OpenAIRE

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, an...

  9. Augmented reality warnings in vehicles: Effects of modality and specificity on effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Felix; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    In the future, vehicles will be able to warn drivers of hidden dangers before they are visible. Specific warning information about these hazards could improve drivers' reactions and the warning effectiveness, but could also impair them, for example, by additional cognitive-processing costs. In a driving simulator study with 88 participants, we investigated the effects of modality (auditory vs. visual) and specificity (low vs. high) on warning effectiveness. For the specific warnings, we used augmented reality as an advanced technology to display the additional auditory or visual warning information. Part one of the study concentrates on the effectiveness of necessary warnings and part two on the drivers' compliance despite false alarms. For the first warning scenario, we found several positive main effects of specificity. However, subsequent effects of specificity were moderated by the modality of the warnings. The specific visual warnings were observed to have advantages over the three other warning designs concerning gaze and braking reaction times, passing speeds and collision rates. Besides the true alarms, braking reaction times as well as subjective evaluation after these warnings were still improved despite false alarms. The specific auditory warnings were revealed to have only a few advantages, but also several disadvantages. The results further indicate that the exact coding of additional information, beyond its mere amount and modality, plays an important role. Moreover, the observed advantages of the specific visual warnings highlight the potential benefit of augmented reality coding to improve future collision warnings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Improvement of the performance of animal crossing warning signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalilikhah, Majid; Heaslip, Kevin

    2017-09-01

    Animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs) can result in serious injury and death to drivers, animals' death, and significant economic costs. However, the cost effectiveness of the majority of AVC mitigation measures is a significant issue. A mobile-based data collection effort was deployed to measure signs under the Utah Department of Transportation's (UDOT) jurisdiction. The crash data were obtained from the UDOT risk management database. ArcGIS was employed to link these two data sets and extract animal-related crashes and signs. An algorithm was developed to process the data and identify AVCs that occurred within sign recognition distance. Kernel density estimation (KDE) technique was applied to identify potential crash hotspots. Only 2% of AVCs occurred within the recognition distance of animal crossing signs. Almost 58% of animal-related crashes took place on the Interstate and U.S. highways, wherein only 30% of animal crossing signs were installed. State routes with a higher average number of signs experienced a lower number of AVCs per mile. The differences between AVCs that occurred within versus outside of sign recognition distance were not statistically significant regarding crash severity, time of crash, weather condition, driver age, vehicle speed, and type of animal. It is more likely that drivers become accustomed to deer crossing signs than cow signs. Based on the historical crash data and landscape structure, with attention given to the low cost safety improvement methods, a combination of different types of AVC mitigation measures can be developed to reduce the number of animal-related crashes. After an in-depth analysis of AVC data, warning traffic signs, coupled with other low cost mitigation countermeasures can be successfully placed in areas with higher priority or in critical areas. Practical applications: The findings of this study assist transportation agencies in developing more efficient mitigation measures against AVCs. Copyright © 2017 National

  11. Lightning risk warnings based on atmospheric electric field measurements in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antonio da Silva Ferro*

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology that employs the electrostatic field variations caused by thundercloud formation or displacement to generate lightning warnings over a region of interest in Southeastern Brazil. These warnings can be used to prevent accidents during hazardous operations, such as the manufacturing, loading, and test of motor-rockets. In these cases, certain equipment may be moved into covered facilities and personnel are required to take shelter. It is also possible to avoid the threat of natural and triggered lightning to launches. The atmospheric electric field database, including the summer seasons of 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 (from November to February, and, for the same period and region, the cloud-to-ground lightning data provided by the Brazilian lightning detection network – BrasilDAT – were used in order to perform a comparative analysis between the lightning warnings and the cloud-to- ground lightning strikes that effectively occurred inside the area of concern. The analysis was done for three areas surrounding the sensor installation defined as circles with 5, 10 and 15 km of radius to determine the most effective detection range. For each area it was done using several critical electric field thresholds: +/- 0.5; +/- 0.8; +/- 0.9; +/- 1.0; +/- 1.2; and +/- 1.5 kV/m. As a result of the reduction of atmospheric electric field data provided by the sensor installed in area of concern and lightning provided by BrasilDAT, it was possible, for each of the areas of alert proposals, to obtain the following parameters: the number of effective alarms; the number of false alarms; and the number of failure to warning. From the analysis of these parameters, it was possible to conclude that, apparently, the most interesting critical electric field threshold to be used is the level of 0.9 kV/m in association with a distance range of 10 km around the point where the sensor is installed.

  12. A Plan to Develop a Red Tide Warning System for Seawater Desalination Process Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae Woo; Yun, Hong Sik

    2017-04-01

    The holt of the seawater desalination process for fifty five days due to the eight-month long red tide in 2008 in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, had lost about 10 billion KRW. The POSCO Seawater Desalination facility, located in Gwangyang Bay Area in the Southern Sea, has produced 30,000 tons of fresh water per day since 2014. Since there has been an incident of red time in the area for three months in August, 2012, it is necessary to establish a warning system for red tide that threatens the stable operation of the seawater desalination facility. A red tide warning system can offer the seawater desalination facility manager customized services on red tide information and potential red tide inflow to the water intake. This study aimed to develop a red tide warning system in Gwangyang Bay Area by combining RS, modeling and monitoring technologies, which provides red tide forecasting information with which to effectively control the seawater desalination process. Using the proposed system, the seawater desalination facility manager can take phased measures to cope with the inflow of red tide. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was supported by a grant(16IFIP-C088924-03) from Industrial Facilities & Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MOLIT) of the Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA). This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2014R1A1A2054975).

  13. Tsunami Ionospheric warning and Ionospheric seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lognonne, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie; Rakoto, Virgile; Coisson, Pierdavide; Occhipinti, Giovanni; Larmat, Carene; Walwer, Damien; Astafyeva, Elvira; Hebert, Helene; Okal, Emile; Makela, Jonathan

    2014-05-01

    The last decade demonstrated that seismic waves and tsunamis are coupled to the ionosphere. Observations of Total Electron Content (TEC) and airglow perturbations of unique quality and amplitude were made during the Tohoku, 2011 giant Japan quake, and observations of much lower tsunamis down to a few cm in sea uplift are now routinely done, including for the Kuril 2006, Samoa 2009, Chili 2010, Haida Gwai 2012 tsunamis. This new branch of seismology is now mature enough to tackle the new challenge associated to the inversion of these data, with either the goal to provide from these data maps or profile of the earth surface vertical displacement (and therefore crucial information for tsunami warning system) or inversion, with ground and ionospheric data set, of the various parameters (atmospheric sound speed, viscosity, collision frequencies) controlling the coupling between the surface, lower atmosphere and the ionosphere. We first present the state of the art in the modeling of the tsunami-atmospheric coupling, including in terms of slight perturbation in the tsunami phase and group velocity and dependance of the coupling strength with local time, ocean depth and season. We then show the confrontation of modelled signals with observations. For tsunami, this is made with the different type of measurement having proven ionospheric tsunami detection over the last 5 years (ground and space GPS, Airglow), while we focus on GPS and GOCE observation for seismic waves. These observation systems allowed to track the propagation of the signal from the ground (with GPS and seismometers) to the neutral atmosphere (with infrasound sensors and GOCE drag measurement) to the ionosphere (with GPS TEC and airglow among other ionospheric sounding techniques). Modelling with different techniques (normal modes, spectral element methods, finite differences) are used and shown. While the fits of the waveform are generally very good, we analyse the differences and draw direction of future

  14. EVALUATION OF DISASTER MITIGATION SYSTEM AGAINST LAHAR FLOW OF PUTIH RIVER, MT. MERAPI AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Maksal Saputra

    2013-05-01

    Result of the evaluation shows that the existing early warning system does not produce sufficient time for the sand miners to save themselves. The proposed solution is to divide sand mine area in Putih River into 3 zones, each zone has different procedure of the early warning and evacuation. This is arranged to avoid casualties to the sand miners. Keywords: Lahar flood, sand miners, early warning.

  15. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7

  16. Patients’ attention to and understanding of adverse drug reaction warnings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tresa Muir McNeal

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Tresa Muir McNeal1, Colleen Y Colbert1, Christian Cable1, Curtis R Mirkes1, June G Lubowinski2, John D Myers11Department of Medicine, Texas A&M University System HSC College of Medicine, Scott & White Healthcare, Temple, TX, USA; 2RD Haynes Medical Library, Scott & White Healthcare, Temple, TX, USAIntroduction: Medications are critical to the management of patient conditions, and they can have significant effects on the success or failure of medical interventions. Patient perceptions of drug warnings play an important role in medication compliance and ultimately disease management. Several factors may affect patients’ understanding of drug warnings and drug labeling, including health literacy and interactions with physicians and pharmacists.Purpose: The purpose of this article is to provide a review of the literature related to patient perceptions of drug warnings and drug labeling. Descriptive articles and studies regarding patient perceptions and knowledge of adverse drug reaction warnings were reviewed.Methods: The following databases were utilized to search the literature related to patient perceptions of drug warnings: PubMed, Academic Search Premiere, CINAHL, Medline, Psych Info, Business Source Complete, Alternative Healthwatch, Health Source (both Nursing/Academic and Consumer additions, JSTOR, and Master File Premiere. For the purpose of this review, any peer-reviewed article was eligible. Exclusionary criteria included: articles published in languages other than English, articles/studies on patient perceptions of vaccines and chemotherapy, and articles related to perceptions of medications administered in the inpatient setting. Forty-six articles were included in the review.Results: Health literacy has been shown to have a major impact on patients’ ability to understand potential adverse reactions and instructions on correct dosing of medications. Direct communication with physicians and pharmacists is one of the most important and

  17. Contribution of an exposure indicator to better anticipate damages with the AIGA flood warning method: a case study in the South of France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine; Douvinet, Johnny; Javelle, Pierre; Vinet, Freddy

    2016-04-01

    On the 3rd October 2015, heavy localized precipitations have occurred in South Eastern France leading to major flash floods on the Mediterranean coast. The severity of those floods has caused 20 fatalities and important damage in almost 50 municipalities in the French administrative area of Alpes-Maritimes. The local recording rain gauges have shown how fast the event has happened: 156 mm of rain were recorded in Mandelieu-la-Napoule and 145 mm in Cannes within 2 hours. As the affected rivers are not monitored, no anticipation was possible from the authorities in charge of risk management. In this case, forecasting floods is indeed complex because of the small size of the watersheds which implies a reduced catchment response time. In order to cope with the need of issuing flood warnings on un-monitored small catchments, Irstea and Météo-France have developed an alternative warning system for ungauged basins called the AIGA method. AIGA is a flood warning system based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1 km² resolution using real time radar rainfall information (Javelle, Demargne, Defrance, Pansu, & Arnaud, 2014). The flood warnings, produced every 15 minutes, result of the comparison of the real time runoff data produced by the model with statistical runoff values. AIGA is running in real time in the South of France, within the RHYTMME project (https://rhytmme.irstea.fr/). Work is on-going in order to offer a similar service for the whole French territory. More than 200 impacts of the 3rd October floods have been located using media, social networks and fieldwork. The first comparisons between these impacts and the AIGA warning levels computed for this event show several discrepancies. However, these latter discrepancies appear to be explained by the land-use. An indicator of the exposure of territories to flooding has thus been created to weight the levels of the AIGA hydrological warnings with the land-use of the area surrounding the streams

  18. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  19. The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

  20. Implementation of a Seismic Early Warning System in Portugal Mainland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madureira, Guilherme; Carrilho, Fernando

    2017-04-01

    Portugal mainland is located near the border between the Eurasian and Nubian plates, whose interaction is the main responsible for a significant seismic activity in the area, with historical occurrence of several catastrophic events (e.g. Lisbon 1755 earthquake [Mag 8.7]), most of which haviguilhng epicenter rise in submerged area, located in the Cadiz Gulf and Southwest of San Vincent Cape. Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is presently a very effective concept to be applied in the mitigation of the effects caused by large earthquakes. For the mentioned area a feasibility study of a EEWS was made in the ALERT-ES project. It was found that the system could be effective to protect cities and infrastructures located at larger distances (ex: Lisbon) from the areas, located south and southwest of PT mainland, where the larger earthquakes are expected to be originated. Considering the use of a new strong-motion network recently implemented in the south of PT mainland, we concluded that the lead-times could be improved. We opted by the implementation of the well known computational platform PRESTO. In the adaptation of the mentioned platform to the local reality one of the challenges was the computation of fast moment magnitude estimates, because regional attenuation must be properly considered, and a specific study was made on this issue. The several simulations that were performed showed a reasonably good performance of the system, both on magnitude evaluation and epicentre location. However we also noted that the problems in the acquisition instruments are a very important source of disturbance in the performance of the EEWS, pointing to a need of a very accurate quality control of the strong-motion network. Considering end-users, we are also developing specific software for intensity estimation at the target places and to trigger visual and audio alerts in accordance to the expected level of shaking. This work is supported by the EU project TSUMAPS-NEAM, Agreement Number

  1. Warnings on alcohol containers and advertisements: international experience and evidence on effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Claire; Room, Robin

    2009-07-01

    In light of possible introduction of alcohol warning labels in Australia and New Zealand, this paper discusses the international experience with and evidence of effects of alcohol warning labels. The report describes international experience with providing information and warnings concerning the promotion or sale of alcoholic beverages, and considers the evidence on the effects of such information and warnings. The experience with and evaluations of the effects of tobacco warning labels are also considered. The most methodologically sound evaluations of alcohol warning labels are based on the US experience. Although these evaluations find little evidence that the introduction of the warning label in the USA had an impact on drinking behaviour, there is evidence that they led to an increase in awareness of the message they contained. In contrast, evaluations of tobacco warning labels find clear evidence of effects on behaviour. There is a need and opportunity for a rigorous evaluation of the impacts of introducing alcohol warning labels to add to the published work on their effectiveness. The experience with tobacco labels might guide the way for more effective alcohol warning labels. Alcohol warning labels are an increasingly popular alcohol policy initiative. It is clear that warning labels can be ineffective, but the tobacco experience suggests that effective warning labels are possible. Any introduction of alcohol warning labels should be evaluated in terms of effects on attitudes and behaviour.

  2. Quantitative prop support estimation and remote monitor early warning for hard roof weighting at the Muchengjian Mine in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Y.; Zhao, T.; Xiao, Y. [Shandong Univ. of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong (China). Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control

    2010-09-15

    Pillar extraction is the method used to mine the ore in the Muchengjian Coal Mine in China because the coal seams are too unstable for canopy-powered or shield-powered support. This study involved a retrospective analysis of roof cave-ins to determine the tensile strength by examining the complex coal seam structure and hard roof at the mine. The objective was to ensure workers' safety when hard roof strata cave in. The roof caving span and thickness was analyzed to determine the prop spacing or number of hydraulic props needed per unit area. The study showed that the early warning threshold bedding vertical separation velocity for hard roof caving at the Muchengjian Coal Mine was about 14 mm/day. The newly developed bedding separation remote monitoring system (BSRMS) was used for the first time for early warning of a roof fall. A total of 48 trials of early warning roof weighting were performed at the Muchengjian Mine on the no. 4 face. The roof above the coal seam consists of 3 layers. The roof is supported by hydraulic props connected to an articulated roof beam manufactured in China. It was concluded that the early warnings from the BSRMS proved to be accurate. The BSRMS also indicated that the support system is safe and reliable. 12 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs.

  3. A probabilistic approach of the Flash Flood Early Warning System (FF-EWS) in Catalonia based on radar ensemble generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, David; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Llort, Xavier; Velasco, Enrique

    2010-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are commonly identified as the most efficient tools in order to improve the preparedness and risk management against heavy rains and Flash Floods (FF) with the objective of reducing economical losses and human casualties. In particular, flash floods affecting torrential Mediterranean catchments are a key element to be incorporated within operational EWSs. The characteristic high spatial and temporal variability of the storms requires high-resolution data and methods to monitor/forecast the evolution of rainfall and its hydrological impact in small and medium torrential basins. A first version of an operational FF-EWS has been implemented in Catalonia (NE Spain) under the name of EHIMI system (Integrated Tool for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) with the support of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Flash flood warnings are issued based on radar-rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimation is performed on radar observations with high spatial and temporal resolution (1km2 and 10 minutes) in order to adapt the warning scale to the 1-km grid of the EWS. The method is based on comparing observed accumulated rainfall against rainfall thresholds provided by the regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The so-called "aggregated rainfall warning" at every river cell is obtained as the spatially averaged rainfall over its associated upstream draining area. Regarding the time aggregation of rainfall, the critical duration is thought to be an accumulation period similar to the concentration time of each cachtment. The warning is issued once the forecasted rainfall accumulation exceeds the rainfall thresholds mentioned above, which are associated to certain probability of occurrence. Finally, the hazard warning is provided and shown to the decision-maker in terms of exceeded return periods at every river cell covering the whole area of Catalonia. The objective of the present work includes the

  4. Real time forest fire warning and forest fire risk zoning: a Vietnamese case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, T.; Pham, D.; Phung, T.; Ha, A.; Paschke, M.

    2016-12-01

    Forest fire occurs seriously in Vietnam and has been considered as one of the major causes of forest lost and degradation. Several studies of forest fire risk warning were conducted using Modified Nesterov Index (MNI) but remaining shortcomings and inaccurate predictions that needs to be urgently improved. In our study, several important topographic and social factors such as aspect, slope, elevation, distance to residential areas and road system were considered as "permanent" factors while meteorological data were updated hourly using near-real-time (NRT) remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS Terra/Aqua and TRMM) for the prediction and warning of fire. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Vietnam, data from all active stations (i.e. 178) were used with the satellite data to calibrate and upscale meteorological variables. These data with finer resolution were then used to generate MNI. The only significant "permanent" factors were selected as input variables based on the correlation coefficients that computed from multi-variable regression among true fire-burning (collected from 1/2007) and its spatial characteristics. These coefficients also used to suggest appropriate weight for computing forest fire risk (FR) model. Forest fire risk model was calculated from the MNI and the selected factors using fuzzy regression models (FRMs) and GIS based multi-criteria analysis. By this approach, the FR was slightly modified from MNI by the integrated use of various factors in our fire warning and prediction model. Multifactor-based maps of forest fire risk zone were generated from classifying FR into three potential danger levels. Fire risk maps were displayed using webgis technology that is easy for managing data and extracting reports. Reported fire-burnings thereafter have been used as true values for validating the forest fire risk. Fire probability has strong relationship with potential danger levels (varied from 5.3% to 53.8%) indicating that the higher

  5. Development of Generic Tools for Coastal Early Warning and Decision Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogaard Tom

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent and historic high-impact events demonstrated coastal risk (Xynthia, Europe, 2010; Katrina, USA, 2005. This is only to get worse, because risk is increasing due to increase in both hazard intensity, frequency and increase in consequences (increased coastal development. Adaptation requires a re-evaluation of coastal disaster risk reduction (DRR strategies and a new mix of prevention, mitigation (e.g. limiting construction in flood-prone areas and preparedness (e.g. Early warning systems, EWS measures. Within the EU funded project RISC-KIT the focus is on preparedness measures and its aim is to demonstrate robustness and applicability of coastal EWS (Early Warning Systems and DSS (Decision Support Systems. Delft-FEWS, a generic tool for Early Warning Systems has been extended, to be applied at sites all across Europe. The challenges for developing a modern EWS are found in the integration of large data sets, specialised modules to process the data, and open interfaces to allow easy integration of existing modelling capacities. In response to these challenges, Delft-FEWS provides a state of the art EWS framework, which is highly customizable to the specific requirements of an individual organisation. For ten case study sites on all EU regional seas a EWS has been developed, to provide real-time (short-term forecasts and early warnings. The EWS component is a 2D model framework of hydro-meteo and morphological models which computes hazard intensities. The total expected impact of a hazard can be obtained by using a Bayesian network DSS. This DSS, which is incorporated in the Delft-FEWS platform is a tool that links coastal multi-hazards to their socioeconomic and environmental consequences. An important innovation of the EWS/DSS lies in its application in dual mode: as a forecast and warning system and as a consistent ex-ante planning tool to evaluate the long-term vulnerability due to multiple (low-frequency coastal hazards, under various

  6. Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

    2015-12-01

    Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

  7. Oak Ridge Reservation Public Warning Siren System Annual Test Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R. F. Gee

    2000-01-01

    The full operational test of the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) Public Warning Siren System (PWSS) was successfully conducted on September 27, 2000. The annual test is a full-scale sounding of the individual siren systems around each of the three Department of Energy (DOE) sites in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The purpose of the annual test is to demonstrate and validate the siren systems' ability to alert personnel outdoors in the Immediate Notification Zones (INZ) (approximately two miles) around each site. The success of this test is based on two critical functions of the siren system. The first function is system operability. The system is considered operable if 90% of the sirens are operational. System diagnostics and direct field observations were used to validate the operability of the siren systems. Based on the diagnostic results and field observations, greater than 90% of the sirens were considered operational. The second function is system audibility. The system is considered audible if the siren could be heard in the immediate notification zones around each of the three sites. Direct field observations, along with sound level measurements, were used to validate the audibility of the siren system. Based on the direct field observations and sound level measurements, the siren system was considered audible. The combination of field observations, system diagnostic status reports, and sound level measurements provided a high level of confidence that the system met and would meet operational requirements upon demand. As part of the overall system test, the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) activated the Emergency Alerting System (EAS), which utilized area radio stations to make announcements regarding the test and to remind residents of what to do in the event of an actual emergency

  8. Tobacco branding, plain packaging, pictorial warnings, and symbolic consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoek, Janet; Gendall, Philip; Gifford, Heather; Pirikahu, Gill; McCool, Judith; Pene, Gina; Edwards, Richard; Thomson, George

    2012-05-01

    We use brand association and symbolic consumption theory to explore how plain cigarette packaging would influence the identities young adults cocreate with tobacco products. Group discussions and in-depth interviews with 86 young adult smokers and nonsmokers investigated how participants perceive tobacco branding and plain cigarette packaging with larger health warnings. We examined the transcript data using thematic analysis and explored how removing tobacco branding and replacing this with larger warnings would affect the symbolic status of tobacco brands and their social connotations. Smokers used tobacco brand imagery to define their social attributes and standing, and their connection with specific groups. Plain cigarette packaging usurped this process by undermining aspirational connotations and exposing tobacco products as toxic. Replacing tobacco branding with larger health warnings diminishes the cachet brand insignia creates, weakens the social benefits brands confer on users, and represents a potentially powerful policy measure.

  9. Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan

    2017-10-01

    The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

  10. Wavelet analysis of the seismograms for tsunami warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chamoli

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The complexity in the tsunami phenomenon makes the available warning systems not much effective in the practical situations. The problem arises due to the time lapsed in the data transfer, processing and modeling. The modeling and simulation needs the input fault geometry and mechanism of the earthquake. The estimation of these parameters and other aprior information increases the utilized time for making any warning. Here, the wavelet analysis is used to identify the tsunamigenesis of an earthquake. The frequency content of the seismogram in time scale domain is examined using wavelet transform. The energy content in high frequencies is calculated and gives a threshold for tsunami warnings. Only first few minutes of the seismograms of the earthquake events are used for quick estimation. The results for the earthquake events of Andaman Sumatra region and other historic events are promising.

  11. Antecedents of Interview faking: Honesty-Humility and Warning instructions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie J Law

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, we examined the antecedents and processes that impact job interviewees’ decisions to engage in deceptive impression management (i.e. interview faking. Willingness and capacity to engage in faking were found to be the processes underlying the decision to use deceptive impression management in the interview. We also examined a personality antecedent to this behaviour, Honesty-Humility, which was negatively related to the use of deceptive impression management through increased willingness to engage in these behaviours. We also tested a possible intervention to reduce IM. In particular, we found that warnings against faking – specifically, an identification warning - reduced both the perceived capacity to engage in interview faking, and subsequent use of several faking behaviors. Moreover, this warning reduced faking without adversely impacting applicant reactions.

  12. Warnings to Counter Choice Blindness for Identification Decisions: Warnings Offer an Advantage in Time but Not in Rate of Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Sagana

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Choice blindness for identification decisions refers to the inability of eyewitnesses to detect that an originally recognized target was swapped for a non-identified lineup member. The robustness of the effect calls for measures that can prevent or reduce the negative consequences of choice blindness manipulations. Here, we investigated whether pre- and post-warnings given to participants about the possibility of mistakes reduces choice blindness for identification decisions. Participants (N = 119 were presented with identifications they never made and were asked to justify those decisions. Either before or after the presentation of the manipulated identification outcome, participants were or were not warned about the possibility of mistakes in the identification process. Although warnings were not sufficient to reduce choice blindness for identification decisions they provided a time-related detection advantage. Pre-warned participants questioned the legitimacy of the manipulated outcome sooner (i.e., concurrent detection than participants in other conditions. Hence, pre-warnings can help detect mistakes in the identification procedure at an earlier stage, before they contaminate the memory of the witness and other pieces of evidence. From a theoretical stance, our findings attest to the strength of self-suggestion and indicate that choice blindness effects are deeply rooted in cognition.

  13. Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L

    2015-05-01

    weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental

  15. Health warnings promote healthier dietary decision making: Effects of positive versus negative message framing and graphic versus text-based warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblatt, Daniel H; Bode, Stefan; Dixon, Helen; Murawski, Carsten; Summerell, Patrick; Ng, Alyssa; Wakefield, Melanie

    2018-08-01

    Food product health warnings have been proposed as a potential obesity prevention strategy. This study examined the effects of text-only and text-and-graphic, negatively and positively framed health warnings on dietary choice behavior. In a 2 × 5 mixed experimental design, 96 participants completed a dietary self-control task. After providing health and taste ratings of snack foods, participants completed a baseline measure of dietary self-control, operationalized as participants' frequency of choosing healthy but not tasty items and rejecting unhealthy yet tasty items to consume at the end of the experiment. Participants were then randomly assigned to one of five health warning groups and presented with 10 health warnings of a given form: text-based, negative framing; graphic, negative framing; text, positive framing; graphic, positive framing; or a no warning control. Participants then completed a second dietary decision making session to determine whether health warnings influenced dietary self-control. Linear mixed effects modeling revealed a significant interaction between health warning group and decision stage (pre- and post-health warning presentation) on dietary self-control. Negatively framed graphic health warnings promoted greater dietary self-control than other health warnings. Negatively framed text health warnings and positively framed graphic health warnings promoted greater dietary self-control than positively framed text health warnings and control images, which did not increase dietary self-control. Overall, HWs primed healthier dietary decision making behavior, with negatively framed graphic HWs being most effective. Health warnings have potential to become an important element of obesity prevention. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A Case Study of Array-based Early Warning System for Tsunami Offshore Ventura, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Meng, L.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme scenarios of M 7.5+ earthquakes on the Red Mountain and Pitas Point faults can potentially generate significant local tsunamis in southern California. The maximum water elevation could be as large as 10 m in the nearshore region of Oxnard and Santa Barbara. Recent development in seismic array processing enables rapid tsunami prediction and early warning based on the back-projection approach (BP). The idea is to estimate the rupture size by back-tracing the seismic body waves recorded by stations at local and regional distances. A simplified source model of uniform slip is constructed and used as an input for tsunami simulations that predict the tsunami wave height and arrival time. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in southern California by implementing it in a simulated real-time environment and applying to a hypothetical M 7.7 Dip-slip earthquake scenario on the Pitas Point fault. Synthetic seismograms are produced using the SCEC broadband platform based on the 3D SoCal community velocity model. We use S-wave instead of P-wave to avoid S-minus-P travel times shorter than rupture duration. Two clusters of strong-motion stations near Bakersfield and Palmdale are selected to determine the back-azimuth of the strongest high-frequency radiations (0.5-1 Hz). The back-azimuths of the two clusters are then intersected to locate the source positions. The rupture area is then approximated by enclosing these BP radiators with an ellipse or a polygon. Our preliminary results show that the extent of 1294 square kilometers rupture area and magnitude of 7.6 obtained by this approach is reasonably close to the 1849 square kilometers and 7.7 of the input model. The average slip of 7.3 m is then estimated according to the scaling relation between slip and rupture area, which is close to the actual average dislocation amount, 8.3 m. Finally, a tsunami simulation is conducted to assess the wave height and arrival time. The errors of -3 to +9 s in arrival time

  17. Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

    2014-05-01

    Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

  18. Forecasting and Warning of Tropical Cyclones in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bangzhong Wang

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available With the development of the global economy, the impact of tropical cyclones has become far-reaching. Thus they are a fundamental issue to be addressed both nationally and globally. The socio-economic impact is particularly noticeable in developing countries, especially China. This paper begins with the effects of cyclones on regional and global economies. Then a brief introduction to the past and current situations and progress in cyclones forecasting and warning in China are presented. Finally the paper gives recommendations about improving and perfecting the tropical cyclone forecasting and warning systems.

  19. Application of τc*Pd in earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Po-Lun; Lin, Ting-Li; Wu, Yih-Min

    2015-03-01

    Rapid assessment of damage potential and size of an earthquake at the station is highly demanded for onsite earthquake early warning. We study the application of τc*Pd for its estimation on the earthquake size using 123 events recorded by the borehole stations of KiK-net in Japan. The new type of earthquake size determined by τc*Pd is more related to the damage potential. We find that τc*Pd provides another parameter to measure the size of earthquake and the threshold to warn strong ground motion.

  20. Hospital outpatients' responses to taking medications with driving warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, T; Sheehan, M; Siskind, V

    2013-01-01

    The study investigates the knowledge, intentions, and driving behavior of persons prescribed medications that display a warning about driving. It also examines their confidence that they can self-assess possible impairment, as is required by the Australian labeling system. We surveyed 358 outpatients in an Australian public hospital pharmacy, representing a well-advised group taking a range of medications including those displaying a warning label about driving. A brief telephone follow-up survey was conducted with a subgroup of the participants. The sample had a median age of 53.2 years and was 53 percent male. Nearly three quarters (73.2%) had taken a potentially impairing class of medication and more than half (56.1%) had taken more than one such medication in the past 12 months. Knowledge of the potentially impairing effects of medication was relatively high for most items; however, participants underestimated the possibility of increased impairment from exceeding the prescribed dose and at commencing treatment. Participants' responses to the safety implications of taking drugs with the highest level of warning varied. Around two thirds (62.8%) indicated that they would consult a health practitioner for advice and around half would modify their driving in some way. However, one fifth (20.9%) would drive when the traffic was thought to be less heavy and over a third (37.7%) would modify their medication regime so that they could drive. The findings from the follow-up survey of a subsample taking target drugs at the time of the first interview were also of concern. Only just over half (51%) recalled seeing the warning label on their medications and, of this group, three quarters (78%) reported following the warning label advice. These findings indicated that there remains a large proportion of people who either did not notice or did not consider the warning when deciding whether to drive. There was a very high level of confidence in this group that they could

  1. PICTORICAL WARNING PADA KEMASAN ROKOK: KOMUNIKASI PERSUASIF DALAM KAMPANYE KESEHATAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherly Hindra Negoro

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Smoking has became the serious problem which always to be the classical dynamic of health communication’s field. Through health campaign by using pictorical warning in cigarette packs, Indonesian Government has priority to reduce the number of smokers in Indonesia. Pictorical warning in cigarette packs was regard as one of communication strategic for implementing. Health campaign has outcome that could change the health behavior for the persuadee. Visualization by using image becomes persuasive communication tools cigarette packs as the communication media. EPPM model was used to analysis this case. This paper was using literature study to understand this problem.

  2. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2017-01-10

    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word "WARNING", and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

  3. Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

    2014-05-01

    Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement

  4. Assessment Analysis and Forecasting for Security Early Warning of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions in Hebei Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Liang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Against the backdrop of increasingly serious global climate change and the development of the low-carbon economy, the coordination between energy consumption carbon emissions (ECCE and regional population, resources, environment, economy and society has become an important subject. In this paper, the research focuses on the security early warning of ECCE in Hebei Province, China. First, an assessment index system of the security early warning of ECCE is constructed based on the pressure-state-response (P-S-R model. Then, the variance method and linearity weighted method are used to calculate the security early warning index of ECCE. From the two dimensions of time series and spatial pattern, the security early warning conditions of ECCE are analyzed in depth. Finally, with the assessment analysis of the data from 2000 to 2014, the prediction of the security early warning of carbon emissions from 2015 to 2020 is given, using a back propagation neural network based on a kidney-inspired algorithm (KA-BPNN model. The results indicate that: (1 from 2000 to 2014, the security comprehensive index of ECCE demonstrates a fluctuating upward trend in general and the trend of the alarm level is “Severe warning”–“Moderate warning”–“Slight warning”; (2 there is a big spatial difference in the security of ECCE, with relatively high-security alarm level in the north while it is relatively low in the other areas; (3 the security index shows the trend of continuing improvement from 2015 to 2020, however the security level will remain in the state of “Semi-secure” for a long time and the corresponding alarm is still in the state of “Slight warning”, reflecting that the situation is still not optimistic.

  5. Preliminary numerical simulations of the 27 February 2010 Chile tsunami: first results and hints in a tsunami early warning perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.; Armigliato, A.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Gallazzi, Sara; Bressan, Lidia

    2010-05-01

    try to give some clues for discussion on the deficiencies of the existing tsunami early warning concepts as regards the warning to the areas which are found close to the tsunami source, and on the strategies that should be followed in the near future in order to make significant progress in the protection and safeguarding of local communities.

  6. Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

    2016-04-01

    Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

  7. Using warnings to reduce categorical false memories in younger and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Anna M; Gutchess, Angela H

    2016-07-01

    Warnings about memory errors can reduce their incidence, although past work has largely focused on associative memory errors. The current study sought to explore whether warnings could be tailored to specifically reduce false recall of categorical information in both younger and older populations. Before encoding word pairs designed to induce categorical false memories, half of the younger and older participants were warned to avoid committing these types of memory errors. Older adults who received a warning committed fewer categorical memory errors, as well as other types of semantic memory errors, than those who did not receive a warning. In contrast, young adults' memory errors did not differ for the warning versus no-warning groups. Our findings provide evidence for the effectiveness of warnings at reducing categorical memory errors in older adults, perhaps by supporting source monitoring, reduction in reliance on gist traces, or through effective metacognitive strategies.

  8. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating characteristics of electromagnetic, electronic, or... limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...

  9. MAFALDA: An early warning modeling tool to forecast volcanic ash dispersal and deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

    2008-12-01

    Forecasting the dispersal of ash from explosive volcanoes is a scientific challenge to modern volcanology. It also represents a fundamental step in mitigating the potential impact of volcanic ash on urban areas and transport routes near explosive volcanoes. To this end we developed a Web-based early warning modeling tool named MAFALDA (Modeling and Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere) able to quantitatively forecast ash concentrations in the air and on the ground. The main features of MAFALDA are the usage of (1) a dispersal model, named VOL-CALPUFF, that couples the column ascent phase with the ash cloud transport and (2) high-resolution weather forecasting data, the capability to run and merge multiple scenarios, and the Web-based structure of the procedure that makes it suitable as an early warning tool. MAFALDA produces plots for a detailed analysis of ash cloud dynamics and ground deposition, as well as synthetic 2-D maps of areas potentially affected by dangerous concentrations of ash. A first application of MAFALDA to the long-lasting weak plumes produced at Mt. Etna (Italy) is presented. A similar tool can be useful to civil protection authorities and volcanic observatories in reducing the impact of the eruptive events. MAFALDA can be accessed at http://mafalda.pi.ingv.it.

  10. Geodetic Finite-Fault-based Earthquake Early Warning Performance for Great Earthquakes Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    GNSS-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault-finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available datasets. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a GNSS-based finite-fault algorithm developed as part of the ShakeAlert EEW system in the western US. Performance evaluations using synthetic earthquakes offshore Cascadia showed that G-larmS satisfactorily recovers magnitude and fault length, providing useful alerts 30-40 s after origin time and timely warnings of ground motion for onshore urban areas. An end-to-end test of the ShakeAlert system demonstrated the need for GNSS data to accurately estimate ground motions in real-time. We replay real data from several subduction-zone earthquakes worldwide to demonstrate the value of GNSS-based EEW for the largest, most damaging events. We compare predicted ground acceleration (PGA) from first-alert-solutions with those recorded in major urban areas. In addition, where applicable, we compare observed tsunami heights to those predicted from the G-larmS solutions. We show that finite-fault inversion based on GNSS-data is essential to achieving the goals of EEW.

  11. Integrated representation of hydropower facilities in an operational flood warning system for a mountainous watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude Aurélien

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated flood forecasting system adapted to mountain basins is under construction at the flood forecasting service of the French Northern Alps (SPCAN, whose jurisdiction area covers the whole Isère River basin (12000km2. Most parts of this area are harnessed for hydropower production, thus modifying flows at all the main sections of the stream network. A semi-distributed conceptual modeling approach was chosen for predicting warning levels at daily time step. Before giving results on the strategic warning point of Montmèlian, simulations on two representative sub-basins of about 1000 km2 are detailed. The first sub-basin includes the large Sautet dam, on the Drac River. The second, on the Isère River, includes the large dam of Tignes and is characterized by multiple diversions. The influence of hydroelectric facilities was analyzed for reconstituting natural flows. Then, a two-steps modeling strategy was deployed: firstly, natural reconstituted flows were simulated; next, the effect of hydroelectric works was introduced, considering the operating status of the main reservoirs and of the water intakes, the latter being aggregated together as a unique equivalent device. While keeping a reasonable level of model complexity, the developed tool provides accurate simulations of observed flood events and is planned to be further used in real-time.

  12. A hybrid hydrologically complemented warning model for shallow landslides induced by extreme rainfall in Korean Mountain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh Pradhan, Ananta Man; Kang, Hyo-Sub; Kim, Yun-Tae

    2016-04-01

    This study uses a physically based approach to evaluate the factor of safety of the hillslope for different hydrological conditions, in Mt Umyeon, south of Seoul. The hydrological conditions were determined using intensity and duration of whole Korea of known landslide inventory data. Quantile regression statistical method was used to ascertain different probability warning levels on the basis of rainfall thresholds. Physically based models are easily interpreted and have high predictive capabilities but rely on spatially explicit and accurate parameterization, which is commonly not possible. Statistical probabilistic methods can include other causative factors which influence the slope stability such as forest, soil and geology, but rely on good landslide inventories of the site. In this study a hybrid approach has described that combines the physically-based landslide susceptibility for different hydrological conditions. A presence-only based maximum entropy model was used to hybrid and analyze relation of landslide with conditioning factors. About 80% of the landslides were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby presenting its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of warning levels with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.

  13. Early warning system realized by ENVINET a.s., domestic and abroad

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sury, J.; Skala, L.; Holcak, P.; Matousek, P.

    2014-01-01

    Within recent years, research and development has expanded the portfolio of applied results in the field of early warning systems - both stationary and mobile standalone. Their implementation in different areas all over the world in different climatic conditions and their coincidence of possible communication interface software, databases, data collection and assessment of the radiation situations allow the users to respond to possible events and thus significantly affect the decision-making level for the preventive countermeasures including their utilization during radiation accidents. Some of the results will be presented during the presentation: - Implementation of monitoring stations in Varazdin, Velika Gorica, Sisak, Virovitica, Beli Manastir, Zadar, Knin and Ploce in Croatia 2014. Other locations such as Plitvice, Sibenik and Koprivnica are also considered. Radiometric monitoring station NuEM RAMS, dose rate from 10 nSv h -1 to 1 Sv h -1 . - Implementation of radiation monitoring stations in Warszawa, Zagan, Wroclaw, Szczecin, Krakow, Lublin, Gdynia, Bydgoszcz, Rzeszow, Bartoszyce, Srem, Swinoujscie, and Ustka in Poland 2014-2015. Radiometric monitoring station NuEM RAMS, dose rate from 10 nSv h -1 to 9 Sv h -1 . Purpose of stations - for a radiation monitoring network in a given area and for integration into the networks of early warning system. Measurement by using smart probe with 2 (3) GM tubes according to a measuring range. Power supply from photo-voltaic panel for the standalone mode. Transmission of measured data is done by using a GSM network. Data are stored into database at a web server. - Early warning system in Latvia 2013-2014. 20 pcs of stationary spectrometric AGR or IGS type or equivalent stations, NaI (Tl) or LaBr detector for on-line identification of radionuclides based on integrated isotope base with at least 10 indicated radionuclides (K-40, Mo-99, Ru-103, Rh -106, Te-129, I-131, Te-132, I-133, Cs-134, Cs-137, and Ba-140). Objective

  14. Low-cost warning device industry assessment : research results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Virtually all of the grade crossing train detection and warning systems in the United States use a variant of the track circuit technology developed over a century ago. Track circuits have evolved through the years, but the design and principles of o...

  15. The comparison of modified early warning score and Glasgow coma ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: The purpose of this study is to assess and compare the discriminatory ability of the Glasgow coma scale (GCS)‑age‑systolic blood pressure (GAP) score and modified early warning scoring system (mEWS) score for 4‑week mortality, for the patients being in the triage category 1 and 2 who refer to Emergency ...

  16. Flood early warning system : Design, implementation and computational modules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Shirshov, G.S.; Melnikova, N.B.; Belleman, R.G.; Rusadi, F.I.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Gouldby, B.P.; Lhomme, J.; Balis, B.; Bubak, M.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Ozhigin, A.V.; Lang, B.; Meijer, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    We present a prototype of the flood early warning system (EWS) developed within the UrbanFlood FP7 project. The system monitors sensor networks installed in flood defenses (dikes, dams, embankments, etc.), detects sensor signal abnormalities, calculates dike failure probability, and simulates

  17. Sensitivity to selected contaminants in a biological early warning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Several early warning systems for the monitoring of water quality are based on the assessment of valve opening/closing in bivalves. Tests were conducted to assess the sensitivity of the mussel Anodonta woodiana, installed on the Mosselmonitor, to seven contaminants and evaluate the usefulness of these sensors for ...

  18. The comparison of modified early warning score and Glasgow coma ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-02-08

    Feb 8, 2016 ... 4‑week mortality, for the patients being in the triage category 1 and 2 who refer to Emergency ... early warning scoring system (EWS) was defined by Morgan et al. on .... method in identifying the risky patients, since there are.

  19. Drug safety and the impact of drug warnings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hostenkamp, G.; Fischer, K. E.; Borch-Johnsen, K.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To analyse the impact of drug safety warnings from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on drug utilisation and their interaction with information released through national reimbursement bodies. Methods Insurance claims data on anti-diabetic drug prescriptions in primary care in Germany...

  20. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was

  1. The Food Early Warning System Project in Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leblanc, M.

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes shortly the objectives of a Food Early Warning System (FEWS project, as well as its organisation. The specifie case of Somalia, where the project had to evolve in increasingly difficult situations, and the solutions used so as to preserve the output, are described.

  2. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeyon Janet Kim

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  3. Development of Early Warning Methods for Electric Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jóhannsson, Hjörtur

    This thesis concerns the development of methods that can provide, in realtime, an early warning for an emerging blackout in electric power systems. The blackout in E-Denmark and S-Sweden on September 23, 2003 is the main motivation for the method development. The blackout was caused by occurrence...

  4. Warning Signals for Poor Performance Improve Human-Robot Interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brule, Rik; Bijlstra, Gijsbert; Dotsch, Ron; Haselager, Pim; Wigboldus, Daniel HJ

    2016-01-01

    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot’s nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the

  5. Do Simple Warning Signs Enhance the Use of Stairs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksay, Ebubekir

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the use of stairways/moving stairways in shopping malls and examine the extent to which simple warning signs determined whether people took the stairs. Design: Large posters that could readily be seen by mall visitors were situated between the stairs and moving stairways in shopping malls.…

  6. Environmental Change & Fragile States Early Warning and Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-12

    Natural Resources and Ecosystem Services] Sources: Adapted from Maslow , 1943; Butts as reported by Damonte, 2006 8  Research...how positions of competing interests will evolve. Synthesizes political science, microeconomics, game theory , decision theory , and spatial...explanation of why outcomes occur (actor motivations ) Senturion Software 19 Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS)  Developed By DARPA

  7. Warning citizens; influencing self-reliance in emergencies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sillem, S.

    2010-01-01

    An important part of the response to an emergency is making sure that people are able to take themselves and others to a place of safety. To make people aware that there is an emergency, there are three steps that have to be taken: there has to be a warning that something is going on, people have to

  8. Reactions to Graphic Health Warnings in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonnemaker, James M.; Choiniere, Conrad J.; Farrelly, Matthew C.; Kamyab, Kian; Davis, Kevin C.

    2015-01-01

    This study reports consumer reactions to the graphic health warnings selected by the Food and Drug Administration to be placed on cigarette packs in the United States. We recruited three sets of respondents for an experimental study from a national opt-in e-mail list sample: (i) current smokers aged 25 or older, (ii) young adult smokers aged 18-24…

  9. For easy sleep along the shore: Making hazard warnings more ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-01-27

    Jan 27, 2011 ... For easy sleep along the shore: Making hazard warnings more effective ... to alert the public; local leaders trained to make the right decisions; .... and the sirens sound, its people will have the motivation and the capacity to act?

  10. Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

    2014-01-01

    A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

  11. Heeding the warning signs: further displacement predicted for Afghanistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Schmeidl

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There is currently much evidence pointing to another wave of displacement likely to occur in Afghanistan. Ignoring these early warning signs and failing to act may mean paying a higher price in the future, both financially and in human terms.

  12. 21 CFR 330.2 - Pregnancy-nursing warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pregnancy-nursing warning. 330.2 Section 330.2 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS FOR HUMAN USE OVER-THE-COUNTER (OTC) HUMAN DRUGS WHICH ARE GENERALLY RECOGNIZED AS SAFE AND EFFECTIVE...

  13. Signal Processing Methods for Flood Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Kozionov, A.P.; Kusherbaeva, V.T.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Meijer, R.J.; Hinkelmann, R.; Nasermoaddeli, M.H.; Liong, S.Y.; Savic, D.; Fröhle, P.; Daemrich, K.F.

    2012-01-01

    We present in a data-driven approach for detection of anomalies in earthen dam (dike) behaviour that can indicate the onset of flood defence structure failure. This approach is implemented in the UrbanFlood early warning system's Artificial Intelligence component that processes dike measurements in

  14. Duty-to-Warn Guidelines for Mental Health Counselors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Luann; Altekruse, Michael

    1994-01-01

    Summarizes legal cases in which duty-to-warn was an issue. Suggests that guidelines for counselors are few and lack definition. Offers a model to guide counselors in making clinical judgments in cases and case examples to exemplify possible ethical dilemmas in the practice of counseling. Includes 36 citations. (Author/CRR)

  15. Drunk driving warning system (DDWS). Volume 2, Field test evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-12-01

    The Drunk Driving Warning System (DDWS) is a vehicle-mounted device for testing driver impairment and activating alarms. The driver must pass a steering competency test (the Critical Tracking Task or CTT) in order to drive the car in a normal manner....

  16. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  17. Considerations and Future Research Directions for E-Cigarette Warnings?Findings from Expert Interviews

    OpenAIRE

    Wackowski, Olivia A.; Hammond, David; O?Connor, Richard J.; Strasser, Andrew A.; Delnevo, Cristine D.

    2017-01-01

    Tobacco warning labels are important sources of risk information but research historically has been cigarette-centric. This qualitative study aimed to inform future direction and research on warnings for e-cigarettes. Between June and August 2016, we conducted interviews with 10 researchers with expertise in tobacco warning label research. Interviewees were registrants of a 2016 National Cancer Institute grantee meeting on tobacco warnings. Several participants agreed that the Food and Drug A...

  18. Local Tsunami Warnings using GNSS and Seismic Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirshorn, B. F.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami warning Centers (TWC's) must issue warnings based on imperfect and limited data. Uncertainties increase in the near field, where a tsunami reaches the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake in a half hour or less. In the absence of a warning, the usual advice is "When the ground shakes so severely that it's difficult to stand, move uphill and away from the coast." But, what if the shaking is not severe? If, for example, the earthquake ruptures slowly (producing very little perceived shaking) this advice will fail. Unfortunately these "Tsunami" earthquakes are not rare: tsunamis from slow earthquakes off of Nicaragua in 1992, and Java in 1994 and 2006, killed 179, 250 and 637 people, respectively, even though very few nearby coastal residents felt any strong ground shaking. TWC's must therefore warn the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake, where over 80% of the Tsunami based casualties typically occur, as soon possible after earthquake rupture begins. The NWS Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) currently issue local Tsunami Warnings for the US West Coast, Hawaii, and the Puerto Rico - Virgin Island region within 2-4 minutes after origin time. However, our initial short period Magnitude estimates saturate over about Mw 6.5, and Mwp underestimates Mw for events larger than about Mw 7.5 when using data in the 0 to 3 degree epicentral distance range, severely underestimating the danger of a potential Tsunami in the near field. Coastal GNSS networks complement seismic monitoring networks, and enable unsaturated estimates of Mw within 2-3 minutes of earthquake origin time. NASA/JPL, SIO, USGS, CWU, UCB and UW, with funding and guidance from NASA, and leveraging the USGS funded ShakeAlert development, have been working with the National Weather Service TWC's to incorporate real-time GNSS and seismogeodetic data into their operations. These data will soon provide unsaturated estimates of moment magnitude, Centroid Moment Tensor

  19. Validation of an abbreviated Vitalpac™ Early Warning Score (ViEWS) in 75,419 consecutive admissions to a Canadian regional hospital.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, John

    2012-03-01

    The early warning score derived from 198,755 vital sign sets in the Vitalpac™ database (ViEWS) has an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for death of acute unselected medical patients within 24h of 88%.

  20. National Environmental Radiation Warning And Monitoring Network And Proposed Radiation Monitoring Programme For The 1st Nuclear Power Plant Ninth Thuan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuong Thu Bac

    2011-01-01

    National Environmental Radiation Warning and Monitoring Network has been gradually setting up based on some of legislative documents which have been issued in recent years. Studies and surveys to build an environmental radiation monitoring program for nuclear power plant (NPP) have also been implemented. This paper aims to introduce National Environmental Radiation Warning and Monitoring Network in Vietnam which has been approved by the government, the draft program for environmental radiation monitoring Ninh Thuan NPP and some initial results of research about environmental radiation in the planning area for building first NPP in Vietnam. (author)

  1. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ce Shang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

  2. 49 CFR 214.329 - Train approach warning provided by watchmen/lookouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Protection § 214.329 Train approach warning provided by watchmen/lookouts. Roadway workers in a roadway work group who foul any track outside of working limits shall be given warning of approaching trains by one... shall clearly signify to all recipients of the warning that a train or other on-track equipment is...

  3. Effectiveness of pictorial health warnings on cigarette packs among Lebanese school and university students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaouie, Hala; Afifi, Rema A; Haddad, Pascale; Mahfoud, Ziyad; Nakkash, Rima

    2015-03-01

    Pictorial health warnings are more effective than text warnings in enhancing motivation to quit and not to start smoking among youth. In Lebanon, packs still have only a very small text warning. The aim of this study was to evaluate the perceived effectiveness of pictorial health warnings on cigarette packs among Lebanese youth. This was a cross-sectional study including school students (n=1412) aged 13-18 years recruited from 28 schools and university students (n=1217) aged 18-25 years recruited from 7 universities. A variety of warnings were adapted from other countries. In all, 4 warnings were tested among school students and 18 among university students. All pictorial warnings were considered more effective than the current text warning on message-related and impact-related variables, including intentions to quit or not to start smoking among school and university students. Selected examples related to the top-ranked pictorial warnings are: among male non-smoking school students, 81% agreed that the 'lung' warning had more impact on their intentions not to start smoking as compared to 57% for the current text warning (pnegative economic consequences of smoking, and to find that such a warning was effective among specific sociodemographic groups. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  4. A Test of the Effectiveness of a List of Suicide Warning Signs for the Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Orden, Kimberly A.; Joiner, Thomas E., Jr.; Hollar, Daniel; Rudd, M. David; Mandrusiak, Michael; Silverman, Morton M.

    2006-01-01

    In this study we examined the effect that reading a list of warning signs for suicide has on beliefs about suicide, including the belief that one can recognize a suicidal crisis. All participants read two sets of warning signs (with only the experimental group reading the suicide warning signs) and then answered questions concerning beliefs…

  5. 75 FR 26269 - Draft Programmatic Environmental Assessment for the Integrated Public Alert and Warning Program's...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-11

    ... system to alert and warn the American people in situations of war, terrorist attack, natural disaster, or... Order 13407, Public Alert and Warning System, by providing robust and survivable power generation, fuel... of interoperable public alert and warning systems, to identify technologies and standards that...

  6. Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.

    1996-02-01

    An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

  7. Earthquake Warning Performance in Vallejo for the South Napa Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurman, G.; Price, M.

    2014-12-01

    In 2002 and 2003, Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. installed first-generation QuakeGuardTM earthquake warning devices at all eight fire stations in Vallejo, CA. These devices are designed to detect the P-wave of an earthquake and initiate predetermined protective actions if the impending shaking is estimated at approximately Modifed Mercalli Intensity V or greater. At the Vallejo fire stations the devices were set up to sound an audio alert over the public address system and to command the equipment bay doors to open. In August 2014, after more than 11 years of operating in the fire stations with no false alarms, the five units that were still in use triggered correctly on the MW 6.0 South Napa earthquake, less than 16 km away. The audio alert sounded in all five stations, providing fire fighters with 1.5 to 2.5 seconds of warning before the arrival of the S-wave, and the equipment bay doors opened in three of the stations. In one station the doors were disconnected from the QuakeGuard device, and another station lost power before the doors opened completely. These problems highlight just a small portion of the complexity associated with realizing actionable earthquake warnings. The issues experienced in this earthquake have already been addressed in subsequent QuakeGuard product generations, with downstream connection monitoring and backup power for critical systems. The fact that the fire fighters in Vallejo were afforded even two seconds of warning at these epicentral distances results from the design of the QuakeGuard devices, which focuses on rapid false positive rejection and ground motion estimates. We discuss the performance of the ground motion estimation algorithms, with an emphasis on the accuracy and timeliness of the estimates at close epicentral distances.

  8. System of prediction and warning of floods in the water basin of Struma/ Strymonas River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mimides, Theologos; Rizos, Spyros; Soulis, Kostas; Dimitrov, Dobri

    2004-01-01

    Struma is collecting waters from four countries: Bulgaria, Serbia, FYROM and Greece. Most of its basin area is located in Bulgaria and Greece, while the upper part of its basin is in Bulgaria. There are important hydro technical structures just below the Bulgarian-Greek border, and the floods generated in the Bulgarian part of the basin could significantly affect the security of those structures and their operational rules. That is why several years ago a project related to flood warning at Struma/ Strymonas river basin was formulated and its first phase was completed in 2000. The main objective of the project was to demonstrate the principal possibility for issuing reliable warnings for hazardous flood events with sufficient lead-time to organize flood mitigation measures. The project implementation team included various scientists from the Agricultural University of Athens-Greece (leader), from the Center of Remote Sensing, Bristol University-UK, and from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Sofia - Bulgaria. The work program of the first project phase included a range of activities implemented by the Bulgarian and Greek team members, coordinated by the Agricultural University of Athens. Among the activities of the Project are included: a) a preliminary model for peak flood hydrographs and specifications of an early warning system, b) a real time flood forecasting by routing flood hydrographs through the system of the river and Kerkini lake, c) thematic maps of vegetation and land cover derived by satellite remote sensing, d) satellite snow monitoring in the basin, e) an adaptation of the Alladin Weather Forecast Model at the hydrological basin and scaling of the Crocus Snow Model at a preliminary stage, and f) development of a geo environmental recording system.(Author)

  9. Implementation and evaluation of early gastroscopy for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs in Primary Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Alonso, Francisco Javier; Hernández Tejero, María; Rubio Benito, Elvira; Valer, Paz; Guerra, Iván; García Ceballos, Victoria Gema; Noguerol, Mar; Llinares, Victoria; Bermejo, Fernando

    2017-05-01

    Dyspepsia is a common disorder in both Primary (PC) and Specialised Care (SC). Gastroscopy is recommended at the start of the study if there are warning signs, although it is not always available in PC. We developed a pilot project establishing an early gastroscopy programme for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs in PC, subsequently extending it to the entire healthcare area. The aim was to evaluate the requirements, impact and opinion of this service at the PC level. Demographic, symptomatic and endoscopic variables on the patients referred to SC from the pilot centre were recorded. A satisfaction survey was conducted among the PC physicians. The one-year pilot study and the first year of implementation of the programme were evaluated. A total of 355 patients were included (median age 56.4 years; IQR 45.5-64.3); 61.2% (56.1-66.3%) were women. The waiting time for examination was 1.5 weeks (IQR 1.5-2.5). Gastroscopy was correctly indicated in 82.7% (78.4-86.3%) of patients. The median number of requests per month was 1.1 per 10,000 adults (range 0.8-1.6). Monthly referrals to SC clinics from the pilot centre fell by 11 subjects (95% CI 5.9-16) with respect to the previous median of 58 (IQR 48-64.5). Almost all those polled (98.4%) considered the programme useful in routine practice. The availability of an early gastroscopy programme in PC for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs reduced the number of referrals to SC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U., AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  10. Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui

    2017-01-01

    The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable. PMID:28257122

  11. Research on early warning of food security using a system dynamics model: evidence from Jiangsu province in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianling; Ding, Yi

    2015-01-01

    Analyzing the early warning of food security, this paper sets the self-sufficiency rate as the principal indicator in a standpoint of supplement. It is common to use the quantitative methods to forecast and warning the insecurity. However, this paper considers more about the probable outcome when the government intervenes. By constructing the causal feedbacks among grain supplement, demand, productive input, and the policy factors to simulate the future food security in Jiangsu province, conclusions can be drawn as the following: (1) The situation of food security is insecure if the self-sufficiency rate is under 68.3% according to the development of system inertia. (2) it is difficult to guarantee the food security in Jiangsu just depending on the increase of grain sown area. (3) The valid solution to ensure the food security in Jiangsu is to improve the productivity. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

  12. Perception of the mexican public about the warning symbols of ionizing radiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paredes, L.; Ramos, L.; Avila, G.; Canales, G.; Altamirano, R.

    2007-01-01

    The perception and familiarization of the mexican public on the terms of 'ionizing radiation' and 'radioactive material' and the traditional warning symbol of ionizing radiation, it has been strongly influenced by the television series 'The Simpson' and their character 'Homero Simpson', which has been the means of communication that of agreement to the results of the anonymous survey carried out in the cities of Mexico, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Veracruz and Merida, it has treated these impact topics in the public opinion in a simple way in different chapters of the series, jointly with the medical common practice of carrying out studies of X rays to the patients and the signals placed in the access doors in the imagenology areas. A bigger percentage is reported to 70% of those interviewed that they have listened the terms of 'ionizing radiation' and 'radioactive material. The traditional symbol of warning of ionizing radiation, 12% recognizes it at first sight, the logo doesn't mean him anything, and only a small group that knows the safety color code associates the yellow color of the bottom with the message of warning-danger. For the case of the new symbol, 100% of the interviewees indicates to ignore it at first sight, however the logo stops in 95% of the cases an opinion to have a meaning, being the perception of death 68%, danger 24%, to run 8% and the red color the message of danger. Inside the public with more familiarity with terminology and the derived traditional symbol of warning of their activities in the work, they were identified the firemen. Of the analysis of the surveys it is observed that the perception of fear to the radioactive material is of 42%, continued by that of ionizing radiations with 32% of the mentions. The presented arguments are that it produces cancer 80% and it can exploit 20% for the first case and it produces cancer 100% for the second case. 98% of the public is interested one in receiving bigger information on these topics and

  13. A flexible hydrological warning system in Denmark for real-time surface water and groundwater simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xin; Stisen, Simon; Wiese, Marianne B.; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans

    2015-04-01

    In Denmark, increasing focus on extreme weather events has created considerable demand for short term forecasts and early warnings in relation to groundwater and surface water flooding. The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) has setup, calibrated and applied a nationwide water resources model, the DK-Model, primarily for simulating groundwater and surface water flows and groundwater levels during the past 20 years. So far, the DK-model has only been used in offline historical and future scenario simulations. Therefore, challenges arise in operating such a model for online forecasts and early warnings, which requires access to continuously updated observed climate input data and forecast data of precipitation, temperature and global radiation for the next 48 hours or longer. GEUS has a close collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute in order to test and enable this data input for the DK model. Due to the comprehensive physical descriptions of the DK-Model, the simulation results can potentially be any component of the hydrological cycle within the models domain. Therefore, it is important to identify which results need to be updated and saved in the real-time mode, since it is not computationally economical to save every result considering the heavy load of data. GEUS have worked closely with the end-users and interest groups such as water planners and emergency managers from the municipalities, water supply and waste water companies, consulting companies and farmer organizations, in order to understand their possible needs for real time simulation and monitoring of the nationwide water cycle. This participatory process has been supported by a web based questionnaire survey, and a workshop that connected the model developers and the users. For qualifying the stakeholder engagement, GEUS has selected a representative catchment area (Skjern River) for testing and demonstrating a prototype of the web based hydrological warning system at the

  14. Operational warnings issued by the SMC in the 8th March snow event in Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilaclara, E.; Segalà, S.; Andrés, A.; Aran, M.

    2010-09-01

    The snowfall event of 8th March 2010 was one of the most important of the last years in Catalonia, with high societal impact in the communication and in the power distribution. Since 2002, after an agreement between Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) and Civil Protection authority, the SMC is the agency responsible to carry out meteorological warnings in Catalonia. These warnings are issued depending on the thresholds which are expected to be exceeded (three different probability degrees are defined), and are characterized by a high spatial and temporal resolution. In the snow event of 8th March, forecasting team of the SMC did the first meteorological warning three days before, on 5th March. During the two following days broadcasted four different warnings, taking into account the high probability of exceeding 2 cm of snow above 200 meters, 15 above 400 m and 30 above 800 m. Furthermore, the SMC disseminated also two special press releases with the aim to extend the forecast to the public. In the afternoon of Sunday, 7th March, the snow precipitation started in some areas of Catalonia. From this moment, the SMC followed the surveillance of situation with the remote sensing tools and the Meteorological Observers Network data. This network is formed by a hundred of spotters with mobile phones able to transmit observations in real time to our web site. This surveillance and the conceptual model of snow events in Catalonia allowed the forecasters to improve the estimation of the snow level forecasted by mesoscale meteorological models. In this event, the snow level obtained from these models was higher than the real one. In spite of the accuracy of the forecast, the impact was very important in Catalonia. On one hand, it was due to the exceptionality of the event, with 3 cm of snow in Barcelona in the afternoon of a working day. On the other hand, the large amount of wet snow precipitation (until 100 mm), and the wind, contributed to an important snow

  15. Cigarette Graphic Warning Labels Are Not Created Equal: They Can Increase or Decrease Smokers' Quit Intentions Relative to Text-Only Warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Shoben, Abigail B; Meilleur, Louise R; Klein, Elizabeth G; Tompkins, Mary Kate; Romer, Daniel; Tusler, Martin

    2017-10-01

    Cigarette graphic-warning labels elicit negative emotion. Research suggests negative emotion drives greater risk perceptions and quit intentions through multiple processes. The present research compares text-only warning effectiveness to that of graphic warnings eliciting more or less negative emotion. Nationally representative online panels of 736 adult smokers and 469 teen smokers/vulnerable smokers were randomly assigned to view one of three warning types (text-only, text with low-emotion images, or text with high-emotion images) four times over 2 weeks. Participants recorded their emotional reaction to the warnings (measured as arousal), smoking risk perceptions, and quit intentions. Primary analyses used structural equation modeling. Participants in the high-emotion condition reported greater emotional reaction than text-only participants (bAdult = 0.21; bTeen = 0.27, p's labels with images that elicit more negative emotional reaction are associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions in adults and teens relative to text-only warnings. However, graphic warnings containing images which evoke little emotional reaction can backfire and reduce risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. This research is the first to directly manipulate two emotion levels in sets of nine cigarette graphic warning images and compare them with text-only warnings. Among adult and teen smokers, high-emotion graphic warnings were associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. Low-emotion graphic warnings backfired and tended to reduce risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. Policy makers should be aware that merely placing images on cigarette packaging is insufficient to increase smokers' risk perceptions and quit intentions. Low-emotion graphic warnings will not necessarily produce desired population-level benefits relative to text-only or high-emotion warnings. © The Author 2016

  16. Believability of Cigarette Warnings About Addiction: National Experiments of Adolescents and Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazard, Allison J; Kowitt, Sarah D; Huang, Li-Ling; Noar, Seth M; Jarman, Kristen L; Goldstein, Adam O

    2018-06-07

    We conducted two experiments to examine the believability of three addiction-focused cigarette warnings and the influence of message source on believability among adolescents and adults in the United States. Experimental data were collected using national phone surveys of adolescents (age 13-17; n = 1125; response rate, 66%) and adults (age 18+; n = 5014; response rate, 42%). We assessed the believability of three cigarette warnings about addiction attributed to four message sources (Food and Drug Administration [FDA], Surgeon General, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], no source). The majority of adolescents and adults reported the three cigarette warnings were very believable (49%-81% for adolescents; 47%-76% for adults). We found four to five times higher odds of adolescents believing a warning that cigarettes are addictive (warning 1) or that nicotine was an addictive chemical (warning 2) compared to a warning that differentiated the addictive risks of menthol versus traditional cigarettes (warning 3), warning 1 adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 4.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.10, 6.63; warning 2 aOR: 3.87, 95% CI: 2.70, 5.50. Similarly, we found three to five times higher odds of adults (including current smokers) believing the same warnings, warning 1 aOR: 3.74, 95% CI: 2.82, 4.95; warning 2 aOR: 3.24, 95% CI: 2.45, 4.28. Message source had no overall impact on the believability of warnings for either population. Our findings support the implementation of FDA's required warnings that cigarettes are addictive and that nicotine is an addictive chemical. These believable warnings may deter adolescents from initiating smoking and encourage adults to quit smoking. This article describes, for the first time, the believability of different cigarette warnings about addiction. We now know that the majority of adolescents and adults believe cigarette warnings that highlight cigarettes as addictive and that nicotine is an addictive chemical in tobacco

  17. Smokers? and E-Cigarette Users? Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements

    OpenAIRE

    Wackowski, Olivia A.; Hammond, David; O?Connor, Richard J.; Strasser, Andrew A.; Delnevo, Cristine D.

    2016-01-01

    Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Par...

  18. Verification of warnings at the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalin, Lovro

    2017-04-01

    The role of national meteorological services is increasingly related to warnings. This is particularly stressed due to more frequent extreme events and severe weather. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia various warnings products are introduced, from Civil protection service and MeteoAlarm to different specialized products, such as heat spells, cold spells, forest fire warnings, etc. Verification of warnings is a relatively new field, with spurious methods and diverse data. Still, various results of warnings will be presented in this paper, mostly through contingency tables and related verification scores. These results provide an insight to the forecast system, it's properties and give a good feed-back to the forecasters.

  19. ERT to aid in WSN based early warning system for landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    T, H.

    2017-12-01

    Amrita University's landslide monitoring and early warning system using Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) consists of heterogeneous sensors like rain gauge, moisture sensor, piezometer, geophone, inclinometer, tilt meter etc. The information from the sensors are accurate and limited to that point. In order to monitor a large area, ERT can be used in conjunction with WSN technology. To accomplish the feasibility of ERT in landslide early warning along with WSN technology, we have conducted experiments in Amrita's landslide laboratory setup. The experiment was aimed to simulate landslide, and monitor the changes happening in the soil using moisture sensor and ERT. Simulating moisture values from resistivity measurements to a greater accuracy can help in landslide monitoring for large areas. For accomplishing the same we have adapted two mathematical approaches, 1) Regression analysis between resistivity measurements and actual moisture values from moisture sensor, and 2) Using Waxman Smith model to simulate moisture values from resistivity measurements. The simulated moisture values from Waxman Smith model is compared with the actual moisture values and the Mean Square Error (MSE) is found to be 46.33. Regression curve is drawn for the resistivity vs simulated moisture values from Waxman model, and it is compared with the regression curve of actual model, which is shown in figure-1. From figure-1, it is clear that there the regression curve from actual moisture values and the regression curve from simulated moisture values, follow the similar pattern and there is a small difference between them. Moisture values can be simulated to a greater accuracy using actual regression equation, but the limitation is that, regression curves will differ for different sites and different soils. Regression equation from actual moisture values can be used, if we have conducted experiment in the laboratory for a particular soil sample, otherwise with the knowledge of soil properties

  20. Scientists warn DOE of dwindling funding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Fusion scientists have raised their voices to let the Department of Energy know that they are concerned about the DOE's commitment to fusion research. In a letter dated February 28, 1994, 37 scientists from 21 institutions noted that open-quotes US funding for fusion has steadily decreased: It is now roughly half its level of 1980. This peculiar and painful circumstance has forced the program to contract drastically, losing skilled technical personnel, even as it faces its most exciting opportunities.close quotes The letter was addressed to Martha Krebs, the DOE's director of the Office of Energy Research, and N. Anne Davies, associated director for fusion energy. The scientists wanted to make two points. The first was that fusion energy research, only midway between concept and commercialization, deserves major reinvestment. The second was that basic scientific knowledge in the area of fusion, not just applied engineering, must remain a priority

  1. Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

  2. Driving with a partially autonomous forward collision warning system: how do drivers react?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhrer, Elke; Reinprecht, Klaus; Vollrath, Mark

    2012-10-01

    The effects of a forward collision warning (FCW) and braking system (FCW+) were examined in a driving simulator study analyzing driving and gaze behavior and the engagement in a secondary task. In-depth accident analyses indicate that a lack of appropriate expectations for possible critical situations and visual distraction may be the major causes of rear-end crashes. Studies with FCW systems have shown that a warning alone was not enough for a driver to be able to avoid the accident. Thus,an additional braking intervention by such systems could be necessary. In a driving simulator experiment, 30 drivers took part in a car-following scenario in an urban area. It was assumed that different lead car behaviors and environmental aspects would lead to different drivers' expectations of the future traffic situation. Driving with and without FCW+ was introduced as a between-subjects factor. Driving with FCW+ resulted in significantly fewer accidents in critical situations. This result was achieved by the system's earlier reaction time as compared with that of drivers. The analysis of the gaze behavior showed that driving with the system did not lead to a stronger involvement in secondary tasks. The study supports the hypotheses about the importance of missing expectations for the occurrence of accidents. These accidents can be prevented by an FCW+ that brakes autonomously. The results indicate that an autonomous braking intervention should be implemented in FCW systems to increase the effectiveness of these assistance systems.

  3. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Di; Gao Jie

    2011-01-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + −1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  4. A web based on-line radiation early warning system for emergency preparedness and response centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhujbal, Vaibhav; Saindane, Shashank S.; Narasaiah, M.V.R.; Murali, S.

    2018-01-01

    The topography of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay site, where all major components of nuclear fuel cycle activities are located is very complex in nature. The assessment of the radiological impact, if any, due to atmospheric releases from these facilities within BARC site is being carried out by using a Local Area Network (LAN) based Radiation Early Warning System and meteorological parameters. The upgraded system is aimed at providing data during normal operation of the various facilities at site and for providing early warning to decision makers in case of any onset of an emergency. It is carried out by acquiring both on-line and off-line data on releases from the plants, the environmental radiation dose rate at selected locations and other related parameters. The monitors placed at these selected locations including strategic point around the BARC site can also help in detecting any attempt of unauthorized trafficking of the radioactive sources. This paper explains different aspects of the system operating at BARC

  5. A Prototype Flood Early Warning SensorWeb System for Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohlberg, R. A.; Mandl, D.; Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Szarzynski, J.; Policelli, F.; van Langenhove, G.

    2010-12-01

    During the past two years, there have been extensive floods in the country of Namibia, Africa which have affected up to a quarter of the population. Via a collaboration between a group funded by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) at NASA that has been performing various SensorWeb prototyping activities for disasters, the Department of Hydrology in Namibia and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) , experiments were conducted on how to apply various satellite resources integrated into a SensorWeb architecture along with in-situ sensors such as river gauges and rain gauges into a flood early warning system. The SensorWeb includes a global flood model and a higher resolution basin specific flood model. Furthermore, flood extent and status is monitored by optical and radar types of satellites and integrated via some automation. We have taken a practical approach to find out how to create a working system by selectively using the components that provide good results. The vision for the future is to combine this with the country side dwelling unit data base to create risk maps that provide specific warnings to houses within high risk areas based on near term predictions. This presentation will show some of the highlights of the effort thus far plus our future plans.

  6. Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

    2015-12-01

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  7. Smokers’ and E-Cigarette Users’ Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wackowski, Olivia A.; Hammond, David; O’Connor, Richard J.; Strasser, Andrew A.; Delnevo, Cristine D.

    2016-01-01

    Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Participants were open to e-cigarette warnings and provided the strongest reactions to statements warning that e-liquid/e-vapor or e-cigarettes can be poisonous, contain toxins, or are “not a safe alternative to smoking”. However, many also noted that these statements were exaggerated, potentially misleading, and could scare smokers away from reducing their harm by switching to e-cigarettes. Opinions on the Food and Drug Administration’s proposed nicotine addiction warning and warnings that e-cigarettes had not been approved for smoking cessation or had unknown health effects were mixed. Participants perceived MarkTen’s advertisement warning to be stronger and more noticeable than Vuse’s. Care should be taken in developing e-cigarette warnings given their relative recentness and potential for harm reduction compared to other tobacco products. Additional research, including with varied audiences, would be instructive. PMID:27376310

  8. Smokers' and E-Cigarette Users' Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wackowski, Olivia A; Hammond, David; O'Connor, Richard J; Strasser, Andrew A; Delnevo, Cristine D

    2016-06-30

    Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Participants were open to e-cigarette warnings and provided the strongest reactions to statements warning that e-liquid/e-vapor or e-cigarettes can be poisonous, contain toxins, or are "not a safe alternative to smoking". However, many also noted that these statements were exaggerated, potentially misleading, and could scare smokers away from reducing their harm by switching to e-cigarettes. Opinions on the Food and Drug Administration's proposed nicotine addiction warning and warnings that e-cigarettes had not been approved for smoking cessation or had unknown health effects were mixed. Participants perceived MarkTen's advertisement warning to be stronger and more noticeable than Vuse's. Care should be taken in developing e-cigarette warnings given their relative recentness and potential for harm reduction compared to other tobacco products. Additional research, including with varied audiences, would be instructive.

  9. Smokers’ and E-Cigarette Users’ Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia A. Wackowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Participants were open to e-cigarette warnings and provided the strongest reactions to statements warning that e-liquid/e-vapor or e-cigarettes can be poisonous, contain toxins, or are “not a safe alternative to smoking”. However, many also noted that these statements were exaggerated, potentially misleading, and could scare smokers away from reducing their harm by switching to e-cigarettes. Opinions on the Food and Drug Administration’s proposed nicotine addiction warning and warnings that e-cigarettes had not been approved for smoking cessation or had unknown health effects were mixed. Participants perceived MarkTen’s advertisement warning to be stronger and more noticeable than Vuse’s. Care should be taken in developing e-cigarette warnings given their relative recentness and potential for harm reduction compared to other tobacco products. Additional research, including with varied audiences, would be instructive.

  10. The role of warning behaviors in threat assessment: an exploration and suggested typology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid Meloy, J; Hoffmann, Jens; Guldimann, Angela; James, David

    2012-01-01

    The concept of warning behaviors offers an additional perspective in threat assessment. Warning behaviors are acts which constitute evidence of increasing or accelerating risk. They are acute, dynamic, and particularly toxic changes in patterns of behavior which may aid in structuring a professional's judgment that an individual of concern now poses a threat - whether the actual target has been identified or not. They require an operational response. A typology of eight warning behaviors for assessing the threat of intended violence is proposed: pathway, fixation, identification, novel aggression, energy burst, leakage, directly communicated threat, and last resort warning behaviors. Previous research on risk factors associated with such warning behaviors is reviewed, and examples of each warning behavior from various intended violence cases are presented, including public figure assassination, adolescent and adult mass murder, corporate celebrity stalking, and both domestic and foreign acts of terrorism. Practical applications and future research into warning behaviors are suggested. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

    2015-04-01

    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region

  12. A pocket warning γ-dosimeter with numerical display

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.R.

    1980-09-01

    A pocket warning dosimeter is described. It provides alarms (continuous tone and a flashing red light) when a presettable dose has been accumulated in the range .064 - 16.4 rads (0.64 - 164 μGy). This warning level can be selected in nine steps of 2 with a switch inside the dosimeter. The dose rate is indicated by a series of sound pulses whose repetition rate is proportional to the dose rate. At 1 rad/h (10 mGy/h) about 17 pluses/minute are emitted. The accumulated dose up to 20 rads (0.2 Gy) is displayed in steps of 1 mrad (10 μGy) with a liquid crystal display. A red LED lights before battery failure occurs. The effects of changes in temperature, battery voltage, dose rate and photon energy upon dosimeter sensitivity are presented. Finally, the applications of the dosimeter are discussed. (auth)

  13. Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.

    2017-12-01

    Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

  14. Bioethics and deliberative democracy: five warnings from Hobbes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotter, Griffin

    2006-06-01

    Thomas Hobbes is one of the most ardent and thoroughgoing opponents of participatory democracy among Western political philosophers. Though Hobbes's alternative to participatory democracy-assent by subjects to rule by an absolute sovereign-no longer constitutes a viable political alternative for Westerners, his critique of participatory democracy is a potentially valuable source of insight about its liabilities. This essay elaborates five theses from Hobbes that stand as cogent warnings to those who embrace participatory democracy, especially those (such as most bioethicists) advocating for deliberative democracy based on a rational consensus model. In light of these warnings, the author suggests an alternative, modus vivendi approach to deliberative democracy that would radically alter the current practice of bioethics.

  15. Tsunamis detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Joseph, Antony

    2011-01-01

    The devastating impacts of tsunamis have received increased focus since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, the most devastating tsunami in over 400 years of recorded history. This professional reference is the first of its kind: it provides a globally inclusive review of the current state of tsunami detection technology and will be a much-needed resource for oceanographers and marine engineers working to upgrade and integrate their tsunami warning systems. It focuses on the two main tsunami warning systems (TWS): International and Regional. Featured are comparative assessments of detection, monitoring, and real-time reporting technologies. The challenges of detection through remote measuring stations are also addressed, as well as the historical and scientific aspects of tsunamis.

  16. Nuclear radiation-warning detector that measures impedance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savignac, Noel Felix; Gomez, Leo S; Yelton, William Graham; Robinson, Alex; Limmer, Steven

    2013-06-04

    This invention is a nuclear radiation-warning detector that measures impedance of silver-silver halide on an interdigitated electrode to detect light or radiation comprised of alpha particles, beta particles, gamma rays, X rays, and/or neutrons. The detector is comprised of an interdigitated electrode covered by a layer of silver halide. After exposure to alpha particles, beta particles, X rays, gamma rays, neutron radiation, or light, the silver halide is reduced to silver in the presence of a reducing solution. The change from the high electrical resistance (impedance) of silver halide to the low resistance of silver provides the radiation warning that detected radiation levels exceed a predetermined radiation dose threshold.

  17. Design of Early Warning System Based on Wireless Sensor Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gan Bo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to solve the shortcomings of the landslide monitoring technology method, a set of landslides monitoring and early warning system is designed. It can achieve real-time sensor data acquisition, remote transmission and query display. In addition, aiming at the harsh environment of landslide monitoring and the performance requirements of the monitoring system, an improved minimum hop routing protocol is proposed. It can reduce network energy consumption, enhance network robustness, and improve node layout and networking flexibility. In order to realize the remote transmission of data, GPRS wireless communication is used to transmit monitoring data. Combined with remote monitoring center, real-time data display, query, preservation and landslide warning and prediction are realized. The results show that the sensor data acquisition system is accurate, the system is stable, and the node network is flexible. Therefore, the monitoring system has a good use value.

  18. Evacuating the Area of a Hurricane

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-08-10

    If a hurricane warning is issued for your area, or authorities tell you to evacuate, take only essential items. If you have time, turn off gas, electricity, and water and disconnect appliances.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 10/10/2007.

  19. Climate science and famine early warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

    2005-11-29

    Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

  20. Tsunamis: Detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.

    upon, which are relevant to tsunami warning, include public announcement siren systems and numerical models. Special attention has been paid to the submarine cable-mounted systems. Due importance has been attached to the instrumented era which... of appropriate emergency measures. Whereas satellite-based reporting is one option, a simple and cost-effective methodology for real-time reporting of tsunami from coastal regions and islands is cellular based GPRS technology. From an operational point...

  1. Viagra warning re "poppers" and notice re protease inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, J S

    1998-05-01

    Pfizer, Inc., manufacturer of Viagra (sildenafil), is warning patients that Viagra is contraindicated with nitrate inhalers (poppers). Nitrates in any form or nitric oxide donors can potentially cause hypotension. Pfizer also recommends that patients using protease inhibitors, particularly ritonavir, use a lower dose of Viagra (25 mg) because they interfere with the elimination of Viagra. This interaction does not pose a significant risk to the patient.

  2. Improved Intelligence Warning in an Age of Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-21

    failure to warn about the Egyptian and Syrian invasion in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Despite closely monitoring the Egyptian and Syrian war preparations and...highly probable the possibility that the Egyptian and the Syrian state of alert derives from fear from us, and as slightly probable the possibility...and Complexity: a Platform for Designing Business Architecture . Boston: Butterworth-Heinemann, 1999. Gladwell, Malcolm. Blink: the Power of

  3. Early Warnings of Cyber Threats in Online Discussions

    OpenAIRE

    Sapienza, Anna; Bessi, Alessandro; Damodaran, Saranya; Shakarian, Paulo; Lerman, Kristina; Ferrara, Emilio

    2018-01-01

    We introduce a system for automatically generating warnings of imminent or current cyber-threats. Our system leverages the communication of malicious actors on the darkweb, as well as activity of cyber security experts on social media platforms like Twitter. In a time period between September, 2016 and January, 2017, our method generated 661 alerts of which about 84% were relevant to current or imminent cyber-threats. In the paper, we first illustrate the rationale and workflow of our system,...

  4. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  5. Silent Warning: Understanding the National Terrorism Advisory System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited SILENT WARNING...PERFORMING OR GANIZATION NA:i\\ti E (S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SP ONSORING /MONIT ORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND...Homeland Sectu’ity Advisory System, Boston Marathon bombing, Christmas Day bomber, tmderwear bomber, hum cane , cotmteiteiTO!’ism, CT AB

  6. Indications and Warning Analysis Management System IWAMS. A Design Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-03-01

    White Album by Joan Didion . Copyright © 1979 by Joan Didion . Reprinted with the permission of Simon and Schuster. "Indications, Warning, and Crisis...and the system. The chief symptom is memorably suggested in these passages by the writer, Joan Didion , on an illness she has suffered. Referring to...Science Review, Vol. 73, 1979, pp, 171-180. 210 IWAMS (40) "We tell ourselves": See Joan Didion , The White Album. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1979, p. 11

  7. Low cancer suspicion following experience of a cancer 'warning sign'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitaker, Katriina L; Winstanley, Kelly; Macleod, Una; Scott, Suzanne E; Wardle, Jane

    2015-11-01

    Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a higher risk of late-stage cancer diagnosis. A number of explanations have been advanced for this, but one which has attracted recent attention is lower patient knowledge of cancer warning signs, leading to delay in help-seeking. However, although there is psychometric evidence of SES differences in knowledge of cancer symptoms, no studies have examined differences in 'cancer suspicion' among people who are actually experiencing a classic warning sign. A 'health survey' was mailed to 9771 adults (⩾50years, no cancer diagnosis) with a symptom list including 10 cancer 'warning signs'. Respondents were asked if they had experienced any of the symptoms in the past 3months, and if so, were asked 'what do you think caused it?' Any mention of cancer was scored as 'cancer suspicion'. SES was indexed by education. Nearly half the respondents (1732/3756) had experienced a 'warning sign', but only 63/1732 (3.6%) mentioned cancer as a possible cause. Lower education was associated with lower likelihood of cancer suspicion: 2.6% of respondents with school-only education versus 7.3% with university education suspected cancer as a possible cause. In multivariable analysis, low education was the only demographic variable independently associated with lower cancer suspicion (odds ratio (OR)=0.34, confidence interval (CI): 0.20-0.59). Levels of cancer suspicion were low overall in this community sample, and even lower in people from less educated backgrounds. This may hinder early symptomatic presentation and contribute to inequalities in stage at diagnosis. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. ATTACK WARNING: Better Management Required to Resolve NORAD Integration Deficiencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-07-01

    protocols, Cumbersome Integration different manufacturers’ computer systems can communicate with eachother . The warning and assessment subsystems...by treating TW/AA system as a single system subject to program review and oversight by the Defense Acquisition Board. Within this management...restore the unit to operation quickly enough after a power loss to meet NORAD mis- sion requirements. The Air Force intends to have the contractor

  9. Strengthening flood warning systems: the benefits of encouraging social preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Seibert, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Flood warning and response have normally been focused on the technical aspects and disregarded the connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social dimensions. An increasing body of research, however, points at the importance of considering socio-hydrological aspects to improve flood damage mitigation. One of the key factors is the preparedness of the public and first responders during flood situations, which is influenced by many behavioural traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or denial. In this study, we investigate the impact of social preparedness on the efficiency of flood early warning systems by using the recency of flood experience as a proxy for social preparedness. To this end, we developed a stylised model and a synthetic data-set to perform a hypothetical analysis. The main findings point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially when the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. More specifically, efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings from this study provide insights into the importance of considering social preparedness in decision-making for disaster risk reduction.

  10. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  11. Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

  12. Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željka Asanović

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

  13. Marketing strategies and warning labels on children's toothpaste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basch, Corey Hannah; Rajan, Sonali

    2014-10-01

    The overconsumption of toothpaste has negative consequences, particularly for children. This study's objectives were to describe misleading marketing strategies used in selling children's fluoridated toothpaste and identify warning label characteristics. Two researchers independently coded the packaging from 26 over-the-counter toothpastes that are specifically marketed for children. Aggressive marketing strategies targeting children were identified: every toothpaste in this sample displayed at least 1 children's animated character, 50% had at least 1 picture of a food item, 92.3% stated they were flavored and 26.9% depicted a full swirl of toothpaste, directly contradicting dentist recommendations for young children. Further, on most toothpaste tubes, warnings regarding fluoride overconsumption for young children were only listed on the back and in very small font. Misleading marketing strategies are regularly used in selling children's toothpaste as if it is a food product, while warnings regarding overconsumption among youth are minimized. Dental hygienists are in an important position to help parents of young children implement safe oral care practices. Copyright © 2014 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

  14. An automatic tsunami warning system: TREMORS application in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reymond, D.; Robert, S.; Thomas, Y.; Schindelé, F.

    1996-03-01

    An integrated system named TREMORS (Tsunami Risk Evaluation through seismic Moment of a Real-time System) has been installed in EVORA station, in Portugal which has been affected by historical tsunamis. The system is based on a three component long period seismic station linked to a compatible IBM_PC with a specific software. The goals of this system are the followings: detect earthquake, locate them, compute their seismic moment, give a seismic warning. The warnings are based on the seismic moment estimation and all the processing are made automatically. The finality of this study is to check the quality of estimation of the main parameters of interest in a goal of tsunami warning: the location which depends of azimuth and distance, and at last the seismic moment, M 0, which controls the earthquake size. The sine qua non condition for obtaining an automatic location is that the 3 main seismic phases P, S, R must be visible. This study gives satisfying results (automatic analysis): ± 5° errors in azimuth and epicentral distance, and a standard deviation of less than a factor 2 for the seismic moment M 0.

  15. Airborne Turbulence Detection and Warning ACLAIM Flight Test Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannon, Stephen M.; Bagley, Hal R.; Soreide, Dave C.; Bowdle, David A.; Bogue, Rodney K.; Ehernberger, L. Jack

    1999-01-01

    The Airborne Coherent Lidar for Advanced Inflight Measurements (ACLAIM) is a NASA/Dryden-lead program to develop and demonstrate a 2 micrometers pulsed Doppler lidar for airborne look-ahead turbulence detection and warning. Advanced warning of approaching turbulence can significantly reduce injuries to passengers and crew aboard commercial airliners. The ACLAIM instrument is a key asset to the ongoing Turbulence component of NASA's Aviation Safety Program, aimed at reducing the accident rate aboard commercial airliners by a factor of five over the next ten years and by a factor of ten over the next twenty years. As well, the advanced turbulence warning capability can prevent "unstarts" in the inlet of supersonic aircraft engines by alerting the flight control computer which then adjusts the engine to operate in a less fuel efficient, and more turbulence tolerant, mode. Initial flight tests of the ACLAIM were completed in March and April of 1998. This paper and presentation gives results from these initial flights, with validated demonstration of Doppler lidar wind turbulence detection several kilometers ahead of the aircraft.

  16. Financial distress in Brazilian banks: an early warning model,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Sérgio Rosa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aims to propose an early warning model for predicting financial distress events in Brazilian banking institutions. Initially, a set of economic-financial indicators is evaluated, suggested by the risk management literature for identifying situations of bank insolvency and exclusively taking public information into account. For this, multivariate logistic regressions are performed, using as independent variables financial indicators involving capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity. The empirical analysis was based on a sample of 142 financial institutions, including privately and publicly held and state-owned companies, using monthly data from 2006 to 2014, which resulted in panel data with 12,136 observations. In the sample window there were nine cases of Brazilian Central Bank intervention or mergers and acquisitions motivated by financial distress. The results were evaluated based on the estimation of the in-sample parameters, out-of-sample tests, and the early warning model signs for a 12-month forecast horizon. These obtained true positive rates of 81%, 94%, and 89%, respectively. We conclude that typical balance-sheet indicators are relevant for the early warning signs of financial distress in Brazilian banks, which contributes to the literature on financial intermediary credit risk, especially from the perspective of bank supervisory agencies acting towards financial stability.

  17. Young Adult Smokers' Neural Response to Graphic Cigarette Warning Labels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Adam E; Mays, Darren; Falk, Emily B; Vallone, Donna; Gallagher, Natalie; Richardson, Amanda; Tercyak, Kenneth P; Abrams, David B; Niaura, Raymond S

    2016-06-01

    The study examined young adult smokers' neural response to graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packs using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Nineteen young adult smokers ( M age 22.9, 52.6% male, 68.4% non-white, M 4.3 cigarettes/day) completed pre-scan, self-report measures of demographics, cigarette smoking behavior, and nicotine dependence, and an fMRI scanning session. During the scanning session participants viewed cigarette pack images (total 64 stimuli, viewed 4 seconds each) that varied based on the warning label (graphic or visually occluded control) and pack branding (branded or plain packaging) in an event-related experimental design. Participants reported motivation to quit (MTQ) in response to each image using a push-button control. Whole-brain blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) functional images were acquired during the task. GWLs produced significantly greater self-reported MTQ than control warnings ( p branded versus plain cigarette packages. In this sample of young adult smokers, GWLs promoted neural activation in brain regions involved in cognitive and affective decision-making and memory formation and the effects of GWLs did not differ on branded or plain cigarette packaging. These findings complement other recent neuroimaging GWL studies conducted with older adult smokers and with adolescents by demonstrating similar patterns of neural activation in response to GWLs among young adult smokers.

  18. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Schöne

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  19. Early warning: Avian flu and nuclear science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belak, S.

    2006-01-01

    Avian flu has spread to 51 countries, 36 this year alone, many of which are densely populated and deprived. The joint FAO/IAEA programme is working on the rapid detection of emerging diseases, including bird flu, and using nuclear and radiation techniques in the process. The problems are serious and challenging, but nuclear technologies may offer a solution. For most developing countries, TAD (transboundary animal diseases) detection is still vital. The bottleneck is their inability to rapidly detect the virus and to determine early enough whether it is H5N1 or another subtype, so that authorities can take appropriate control measures. Serious efforts are focused on the early detection of the agents. Timely recognition of such viral infections would prevent the spread of the diseases to large animal populations in huge geographic areas. Thus, the development of novel, powerful diagnostic nuclear and nuclear-related assays is a crucial issue today in veterinary research and animal health care. Molecular virology offers a range of new methods, which are able to accelerate and improve the diagnosis of infectious diseases in animals and in man. The molecular detection assays, like the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technologies, provide possibilities for a very rapid diagnosis. The detection of viruses can be completed within hours or hopefully even within minutes with a sensitivity level of less than one pathogenic organism. Molecular approaches have contributed significantly to the rapid detection of well-established, as well as newly emerging, infectious agents such as Nipah and Hendra viruses or corona viruses in the SARS scenario and the detection and molecular characterisation of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 subtype that threatens the world today. The nucleic acid amplification assays, although they were at first expensive and cumbersome, have become relatively cheap and user-friendly tools in the diagnostic laboratories

  20. Establishment of turbidity forecasting model and early-warning system for source water turbidity management using back-propagation artificial neural network algorithm and probability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tsung-Ming; Fan, Shu-Kai; Fan, Chihhao; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to establish a turbidity forecasting model as well as an early-warning system for turbidity management using rainfall records as the input variables. The Taipei Water Source Domain was employed as the study area, and ANOVA analysis showed that the accumulative rainfall records of 1-day Ping-lin, 2-day Ping-lin, 2-day Fei-tsui, 2-day Shi-san-gu, 2-day Tai-pin and 2-day Tong-hou were the six most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. The artificial neural network model was developed and proven capable of predicting the turbidity concentration in the investigated catchment downstream area. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to developing the turbidity early-warning system. Using a previously determined turbidity as the threshold, the rainfall criterion, above which the downstream turbidity would possibly exceed this respective threshold turbidity, for the investigated rain gauge stations was determined. An exemplary illustration demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed turbidity early-warning system as a precautionary alarm of possible significant increase of downstream turbidity. This study is the first report of the establishment of the turbidity early-warning system. Hopefully, this system can be applied to source water turbidity forecasting during storm events and provide a useful reference for subsequent adjustment of drinking water treatment operation.

  1. Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

  2. Graphic warnings and text warning labels on cigarette packages in Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Awareness and perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoda Jradi

    2018-01-01

    CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that while graphic warning labels are perceived as necessary on cigarette packages the currently used messages are not clear and therefore do not serve their intended purposes. Measures should be undertaken to ensure that pictorial cigarette labels used in Saudi Arabia are culturally and ethnically appropriate and are rotated on a regular basis to ensure salience among smokers and nonsmokers alike.

  3. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  4. Feasibility Study of Earthquake Early Warning in Hawai`i For the Mauna Kea Thirty Meter Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okubo, P.; Hotovec-Ellis, A. J.; Thelen, W. A.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquakes, including large damaging events, are as central to the geologic evolution of the Island of Hawai`i as its more famous volcanic eruptions and lava flows. Increasing and expanding development of facilities and infrastructure on the island continues to increase exposure and risk associated with strong ground shaking resulting from future large local earthquakes. Damaging earthquakes over the last fifty years have shaken the most heavily developed areas and critical infrastructure of the island to levels corresponding to at least Modified Mercalli Intensity VII. Hawai`i's most recent damaging earthquakes, the M6.7 Kiholo Bay and M6.0 Mahukona earthquakes, struck within seven minutes of one another off of the northwest coast of the island in October 2006. These earthquakes resulted in damage at all thirteen of the telescopes near the summit of Mauna Kea that led to gaps in telescope operations ranging from days up to four months. With the experiences of 2006 and Hawai`i's history of damaging earthquakes, we have begun a study to explore the feasibility of implementing earthquake early warning systems to provide advanced warnings to the Thirty Meter Telescope of imminent strong ground shaking from future local earthquakes. One of the major challenges for earthquake early warning in Hawai`i is the variety of earthquake sources, from shallow crustal faults to deeper mantle sources, including the basal decollement separating the volcanic pile from the ancient oceanic crust. Infrastructure on the Island of Hawai`i may only be tens of kilometers from these sources, allowing warning times of only 20 s or less. We assess the capability of the current seismic network to produce alerts for major historic earthquakes, and we will provide recommendations for upgrades to improve performance.

  5. Community Based Warning and Evacuation System against Debris Flow in the Upper Jeneberang River, Gowa, South Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutikno Hardjosuwarno

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Gigantic collapse of the Caldera wall of Mt. Bawakaraeng (2,830 m in March 2004 had supplied the sediment volume of 230 million to the most upper stream of Jeneberang River, which flowed down to the lower reach in the form of debris flow which is triggered by rainfall. The purpose of the research is to provide a system which is able to forecast the occurrence of debris flow, to identify the weak points along the river course, to identify the hazard areas and how to inform effectively and efficiently the warning messages to the inhabitants in the dangerous area by using the existing modern equipment combined with the traditional one. The standard rainfall which is used to judge the occurrence of debris flow was established by Yano method. It is based on the historical data of rainfall that trigger and not trigger to the occurrence of debris flow which is widely used in Japan so far. The hazard area was estimated by Two-Dimensional Simulation Model for debris flow, the debris flow arrival time at each point in the river were estimated by dividing their distance from reference point by debris flow velocity, where the check dam no. 7-1 in Manimbahoi was designated as reference point. The existing evacuation routes were checked by field survey, the strength and coverage of sound for kentongan and manual siren were examined using sound pressure level at the location of the existing monitoring post and the effectiveness of warning and evacuation were evaluated by comparing the warning and evacuation time against the debris flow arrival time. It was resulted that debris flow occurrence was triggered by short duration of high rainfall intensity, long duration of low rainfall intensity and the outbreak of natural dam which is formed by land slide or bank collapses. The hazard area of upper Jeneberang River are mostly located on the river terraces where the local inhabitants earn their living through cultivating the river terraces as paddy fields, dry

  6. Evaluation of the National Weather Service Extreme Cold Warning Experiment in North Dakota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Cindy H; Vagi, Sara J; Wolkin, Amy F; Martin, John Paul; Noe, Rebecca S

    2014-01-01

    Dangerously cold weather threatens life and property. During periods of extreme cold due to wind chill, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues wind chill warnings to prompt the public to take action to mitigate risks. Wind chill warnings are based on ambient temperatures and wind speeds. Since 2010, NWS has piloted a new extreme cold warning issued for cold temperatures in wind and nonwind conditions. The North Dakota Department of Health, NWS, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated in conducting household surveys in Burleigh County, North Dakota, to evaluate this new warning. The objectives of the evaluation were to assess whether residents heard the new warning and to determine if protective behaviors were prompted by the warning. This was a cross-sectional survey design using the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology to select a statistically representative sample of households from Burleigh County. From 10 to 11 April 2012, 188 door-to-door household interviews were completed. The CASPER methodology uses probability sampling with weighted analysis to estimate the number and percentage of households with a specific response within Burleigh County. The majority of households reported having heard both the extreme cold and wind chill warnings, and both warnings prompted protective behaviors. These results suggest this community heard the new warning and took protective actions after hearing the warning.

  7. Smokers' recall of Australian graphic cigarette packet warnings & awareness of associated health effects, 2005-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quester Pascale G

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2006, Australia introduced graphic cigarette packet warnings. The new warnings include one of 14 pictures, many depicting tobacco-related pathology. The warnings were introduced in two sets; Set A in March and Set B from November. This study explores their impact on smokers' beliefs about smoking related illnesses. This study also examines the varying impact of different warnings, to see whether warnings with visceral images have greater impact on smokers' beliefs than other images. Methods Representative samples of South Australian smokers were interviewed in four independent cross-sectional omnibus surveys; in 2005 (n = 504, 2006 (n = 525, 2007 (n = 414 and 2008 (n = 464. Results Unprompted recall of new graphic cigarette warnings was high in the months following their introduction, demonstrating that smokers' had been exposed to them. Smokers also demonstrated an increase in awareness about smoking-related diseases specific to the warning messages. Warnings that conveyed new information and had emotive images demonstrated greater impact on recall and smokers' beliefs than more familiar information and less emotive images. Conclusions Overall graphic pack warnings have had the intended impact on smokers. Some have greater impact than others. The implications for policy makers in countries introducing similar warnings are that fresh messaging and visceral images have the greatest impact.

  8. Graphic warning labels on plain cigarette packs: will they make a difference to adolescents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCool, Judith; Webb, Lisa; Cameron, Linda D; Hoek, Janet

    2012-04-01

    Graphic warning labels and plain cigarette packaging are two initiatives developed to increase quit behaviour among smokers. Although a little is known about how adolescents interpret graphic warning labels, very few studies have examined how plain cigarette packaging would affect adolescents' perceptions of cigarette smoking and smoking behaviour. We explored how teens interpret and respond to graphic warning labels and the plain packaging of cigarettes, to assess the potential these strategies may offer in deterring smoking initiation. Twelve focus group interviews with a sample of 80 14-16 year old students from a diverse range of schools in Auckland, New Zealand were undertaken between June and August 2009. Textual analysis revealed that graphic warning labels may influence adolescents by reiterating a negative image of smokers. Graphic warning on a plain cigarette pack increased the attention paid to graphic warning labels and the overall perceptions of harm caused by cigarette smoking, and reduced the social appeal of cigarette smoking. This research offers evidence on how adolescents are appraising and interpreting graphic warning labels, and explores how dominant appraisals may affect the role graphic warning labels play in preventing smoking. Not only would plain cigarette packaging enhance the salience and impact of graphic warning labels, but it would potentially bolster the overall message that cigarette smoking is harmful. In the context of a comprehensive tobacco control programme, graphic warning labels on plain cigarette packaging present an explicit message about the risks (to health and image) associated with cigarette smoking. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. False alarms and missed events: the impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G

    2015-01-01

    Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Future Developments for the Earthquake Early Warning System following the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) caused significant damage over a large area of northeastern Honshu. An earthquake early warning was issued to the public in the Tohoku region about 8 seconds after the first P-arrival, which is 31 seconds after the origin time. There was no 'blind zone', and warnings were received at all locations before S-wave arrivals, since the earthquake was fairly far offshore. Although the early warning message was properly reported in Tohoku region which was the most severely affected area, a message was not sent to the more distant Tokyo region because the intensity was underestimated. . This underestimation was because the magnitude determination in the first few seconds was relatively small (Mj8.1)., and there was no consideration of a finite fault with a long length. Another significant issue is that warnings were sometimes not properly provided for aftershocks. Immediately following the earthquake, the waveforms of some large aftershocks were contaminated by long-period surface waves from the mainshock, which made it difficult to pick P-wave arrivals. Also, correctly distinguishing and locating later aftershocks was sometimes difficult, when multiple events occurred within a short period of time. This masinhock begins with relatively small moment release for the first 10 s . Since the amplitude of the initial waveforms is small, most methods that use amplitudes and periods of the P-wave (e.g. Wu and Kanamori, 2005) cannot correctly determine the size of the4 earthquake in the first several seconds. The current JMA system uses the peak displacement amplitude for the magnitude estimation, and the magnitude saturated at about M8 1 minute after the first P-wave arrival. . Magnitudes of smaller earthquakes can be correctly identified from the first few seconds of P- or S-wave arrivals, but this M9 event cannot be characterized in such a short time. The only way to correctly characterize the size of the Tohoku

  11. Real-Time Detection of Rupture Development: Earthquake Early Warning Using P Waves From Growing Ruptures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Yuki

    2018-01-01

    Large earthquakes with long rupture durations emit P wave energy throughout the rupture period. Incorporating late-onset P waves into earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms could contribute to robust predictions of strong ground motion. Here I describe a technique to detect in real time P waves from growing ruptures to improve the timeliness of an EEW algorithm based on seismic wavefield estimation. The proposed P wave detector, which employs a simple polarization analysis, successfully detected P waves from strong motion generation areas of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake rupture. An analysis using 23 large (M ≥ 7) events from Japan confirmed that seismic intensity predictions based on the P wave detector significantly increased lead times without appreciably decreasing the prediction accuracy. P waves from growing ruptures, being one of the fastest carriers of information on ongoing rupture development, have the potential to improve the performance of EEW systems.

  12. Real-Time Surveillance in Emergencies Using the Early Warning Alert and Response Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordes, Kristina M; Cookson, Susan T; Boyd, Andrew T; Hardy, Colleen; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Mala, Peter; El Tahir, Khalid; Everard, Marthe; Jasiem, Mohamad; Husain, Farah

    2017-11-01

    Humanitarian emergencies often result in population displacement and increase the risk for transmission of communicable diseases. To address the increased risk for outbreaks during humanitarian emergencies, the World Health Organization developed the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) for early detection of epidemic-prone diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked with the World Health Organization, ministries of health, and other partners to support EWARN through the implementation and evaluation of these systems and the development of standardized guidance. Although protocols have been developed for the implementation and evaluation of EWARN, a need persists for standardized training and additional guidance on supporting these systems remotely when access to affected areas is restricted. Continued collaboration between partners and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for surveillance during emergencies is necessary to strengthen capacity and support global health security.

  13. A warning system based on the RFID technology for running-out of injection fluid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chi-Fang; Lin, Jen-Hung

    2011-01-01

    For providing an automatic warning system of running-out of injection fluid, RFID technology is applied in this work to propose an infrastructure with low cost to help nurses and patient's company. Specially, a RFID tag is designed and attached on a bag of intravenous drip to demonstrate the benefits in the present system. The main idea of this system is that, tag is disabled when the bag is not empty because of the EM loading due to the liquid contained. The bag can be any kind in the current market and be without any electronic attachment or modification. LAN (Local Area Network) is also applied as a part of this infrastructure for data transmission.

  14. Assessing Potential of VIIRS Data for Contribution to a Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the contributions by the Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) towards using Visible Infrared Imager / Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data in assessing the damage to forests. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandates development of national Early Warning System (EWS) for forest threat monitoring and mitigation. NASA Stennis is working with the US Forest Service to develop needed components of this EWS. The use of MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales is a componet of this program. This RPC experiment was initiated to assess potential of the MODIS follow-on, VIIRS, for monitoring forest disturbance at broad scales and thereby contributing to the EWS. This presentation reviews the potential use of the VIIRS to examine the damage to forests caused by gyspy moths in the West Virginia and Virginia area.

  15. Web3DGIS-Based System for Reservoir Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Huang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are the most frequent type of natural disaster, and they bring about large-scale damage and are a threat to human lives and infrastructure; therefore, the ability to conduct real-time monitoring and early warning is important. In this study, a Web3DGIS (Web3D geographic information systems system for monitoring and forecasting landslides was developed using the Danjiangkou Reservoir area as a case study. The development of this technique involved system construction, functional design, organizing and managing multi-source spatial data, and implementing a forecasting plan and landslide-forecasting model. By integrating sensor technologies, spatial information technologies, 3D visualization technologies, and a landslide-forecasting model, the results of this study provide a tool for real-time monitoring at potential landslide sites. When relevant data from these sites reach threshold values, the model automatically initiates forecasting procedures, and sends information to disaster prevention sectors for emergency management.

  16. An Early-Warning System for Volcanic Ash Dispersal: The MAFALDA Procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

    2006-12-01

    Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash is a fundamental goal in order to mitigate its potential impact on urbanized areas and transport routes surrounding explosive volcanoes. To this aim we developed an early- warning procedure named MAFALDA (Modeling And Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere). Such tool is able to quantitatively forecast the atmospheric concentration of ash as well as the ground deposition as a function of time over a 3D spatial domain.\\The main features of MAFALDA are: (1) the use of the hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian code VOL-CALPUFF able to describe both the rising column phase and the atmospheric dispersal as a function of weather conditions, (2) the use of high-resolution weather forecasting data, (3) the short execution time that allows to analyse a set of scenarios and (4) the web-based CGI software application (written in Perl programming language) that shows the results in a standard graphical web interface and makes it suitable as an early-warning system during volcanic crises.\\MAFALDA is composed by a computational part that simulates the ash cloud dynamics and a graphical interface for visualizing the modelling results. The computational part includes the codes for elaborating the meteorological data, the dispersal code and the post-processing programs. These produces hourly 2D maps of aerial ash concentration at several vertical levels, extension of "threat" area on air and 2D maps of ash deposit on the ground, in addition to graphs of hourly variations of column height.\\The processed results are available on the web by the graphical interface and the users can choose, by drop-down menu, which data to visualize. \\A first partial application of the procedure has been carried out for Mt. Etna (Italy). In this case, the procedure simulates four volcanological scenarios characterized by different plume intensities and uses 48-hrs weather forecasting data with a resolution of 7 km provided by the Italian Air Force.

  17. An organizational early-warning system for safety, health, and environmental crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrivastava, P.

    1992-01-01

    Early-warning systems have played an important role in preventing major industrial accidents and technological disasters. These systems record critical operating and performance parameters and raise warnings or alarms if these parameters cross acceptable limits. Most early-warning systems used in hazardous industries focus on the technological system and to a lesser extent on their human operators. However, industrial disasters are caused not only by technological and human failure, but also by organizational, regulatory, infrastructural, and community preparedness failures. Hazardous industries can benefit from the development of early-warning systems that have a broader scope than the core technology. These systems could cover financial, human resource, organizational policies, regulatory, infrastructural, and community-related variables. This paper develops some basic concepts that can help build managerially useful early-warning systems for safety, health, and environmental (SHE) incidents. It identifies variables that should be tracked, the threshold levels for these variables, and possible managerial reactions to warnings

  18. Health Warning Labels for Smokeless Tobacco: The Impact of Graphic Images on Attention, Recall, and Craving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Elizabeth G; Quisenberry, Amanda J; Shoben, Abigail B; Cooper, Sarah; Ferketich, Amy K; Berman, Micah; Peters, Ellen; Wewers, Mary Ellen

    2017-10-01

    Little research has examined the impacts of graphic health warnings on the users of smokeless tobacco products. A convenience sample of past-month, male smokeless tobacco users (n = 142; 100% male) was randomly assigned to view a smokeless tobacco advertisement with a graphic health warning (GHW) or a text-only warning. Eye-tracking equipment measured viewing time, or dwell time, in milliseconds. Following the advertisement exposure, participants self-reported smokeless tobacco craving and recalled any content in the health warning message (unaided recall). Linear and logistic regression analyses evaluated the proportion of time viewing the GHW, craving, and GHW recall. Participants who viewed a GHW spent a significantly greater proportion of their ad viewing time on GHWs (2.87 seconds or 30%), compared to those viewing a text-only warning (2.05 seconds or 24%). Although there were no significant differences by condition in total advertisement viewing duration, those participants viewing a GHW had increased recall of health warning messages compared to the text-only warning (76% had any warning message recall compared to 53%; p recall of health warning messages compared to text-only warnings among rural male smokeless tobacco users. Among a sample of rural smokeless tobacco users, GHWs attracted more attention and recall of health warning messages compared to text-only warnings when viewed within smokeless tobacco advertising. These findings provide additional empirical support that GHWs are an effective tobacco control tool for all tobacco products and advertisements. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2012-01-01

    Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

  20. World Antimalarial Resistance Network (WARN IV: Clinical pharmacology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbotosho Grace O

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A World Antimalarial Resistance Network (WARN database has the potential to improve the treatment of malaria, through informing current drug selection and use and providing a prompt warning of when treatment policies need changing. This manuscript outlines the contribution and structure of the clinical pharmacology component of this database. The determinants of treatment response are multi-factorial, but clearly providing adequate blood concentrations is pivotal to curing malaria. The ability of available antimalarial pharmacokinetic data to inform optimal dosing is constrained by the small number of patients studied, with even fewer (if any studies conducted in the most vulnerable populations. There are even less data relating blood concentration data to the therapeutic response (pharmacodynamics. By pooling all available pharmacokinetic data, while paying careful attention to the analytical methodologies used, the limitations of small (and thus underpowered individual studies may be overcome and factors that contribute to inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic parameters defined. Key variables for pharmacokinetic studies are defined in terms of patient (or study subject characteristics, the formulation and route of administration of the antimalarial studied, the sampling and assay methodology, and the approach taken to data analysis. Better defining these information needs and criteria of acceptability of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD studies should contribute to improving the quantity, relevance and quality of these studies. A better understanding of the pharmacokinetic properties of antimalarials and a more clear definition of what constitutes "therapeutic drug levels" would allow more precise use of the term "antimalarial resistance", as it would indicate when treatment failure is not caused by intrinsic parasite resistance but is instead the result of inadequate drug levels. The clinical pharmacology component

  1. The Effect of Sonic Booms on Earthquake Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurman, Gilead; Haering, Edward A, Jr.; Price, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Several aerospace companies are designing quiet supersonic business jets for service over the United States. These aircraft have the potential to increase the occurrence of mild sonic booms across the country. This leads to interest among earthquake warning (EQW) developers and the general seismological community in characterizing the effect of sonic booms on seismic sensors in the field, their potential impact on EQW systems, and means of discriminating their signatures from those of earthquakes. The SonicBREWS project (Sonic Boom Resistant Earthquake Warning Systems) is a collaborative effort between Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. (SWS) and NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. This project aims to evaluate the effects of sonic booms on EQW sensors. The study consists of exposing high-sample-rate (1000 sps) triaxial accelerometers to sonic booms with overpressures ranging from 10 to 600 Pa in the free field and the built environment. The accelerometers record the coupling of the sonic boom to the ground and surrounding structures, while microphones record the acoustic wave above ground near the sensor. Sonic booms are broadband signals with more high-frequency content than earthquakes. Even a 1000 sps accelerometer will produce a significantly aliased record. Thus the observed peak ground velocity is strongly dependent on the sampling rate, and increases as the sampling rate is reduced. At 1000 sps we observe ground velocities that exceed those of P-waves from ML 3 earthquakes at local distances, suggesting that sonic booms are not negligible for EQW applications. We present the results of several experiments conducted under SonicBREWS showing the effects of typical-case low amplitude sonic booms and worst-case high amplitude booms. We show the effects of various sensor placements and sensor array geometries. Finally, we suggest possible avenues for discriminating sonic booms from earthquakes for the purposes of EQW.

  2. Automation warning system against driver falling asleep in-traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dymov I. S.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the development of a new automation recognition and warning system against driver falling asleep in-traffic. The issue of the physical condition control of professional drivers on the voyage has been considered both on the part of efficiency and quality of its determination, and in terms of improving overall road safety. The existing and widely used devices for determining the transition to the stage of sleep of drivers being in-traffic have been analyzed. Their advantages and disadvantages have been detected. It has been established that the main negative factor preventing the mass introduction of pre-existing warning systems is the need to wear one or another monitoring device before starting the movement. Carried out project research work has proposed a complex monitoring of the physical and physiological condition of driving person as a new warning method against falling asleep in-traffic. The proposed variations of algorithmic implementations can be used in long-distance trucks and passenger vehicles. Two different versions of the automatic control status of the driver physical condition have been considered. The first approach has proposed the use of sensors of the biometric parameters of body, pulsus, body temperature, and hands on wheel pressure sensors. The second one has proposed using the tracking cameras. Both for the first and second versions of the automation system a toolset of control devices is being installed inside the vehicle and have no physical, so irritating action on the driver. Software approach for the false operation rejection of the devices has been developed. The paper considers the flow diagrams of the automatic systems and logical structure of analysis and decision-making. The set of impacts intended for driver's awakening has been proposed. The conclusion about the engineering perspectives of the proposed approach of projected automation systems has been made.

  3. Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2015-03-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline

  4. Estimation for aerial detection effectiveness with cooperation efficiency factors of early-warning aircraft in early-warning detection SoS under BSC framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Feng; Hu, Xiaofeng; He, Xiaoyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Kaiming; Yang, Lu

    2017-11-01

    In the military field, the performance evaluation of early-warning aircraft deployment or construction is always an important problem needing to be explored. As an effective approach of enterprise management and performance evaluation, Balanced Score Card (BSC) attracts more and more attentions and is studied more and more widely all over the world. It can also bring feasible ideas and technical approaches for studying the issue of the performance evaluation of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft which is the important component in early-warning detection system of systems (SoS). Therefore, the deep explored researches are carried out based on the previously research works. On the basis of the characteristics of space exploration and aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS and the cardinal principle of BSC are analyzed simply, and the performance evaluation framework of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft is given, under this framework, aimed at the evaluation issue of aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS with the cooperation efficiency factors of the early-warning aircraft and other land based radars, the evaluation indexes are further designed and the relative evaluation model is further established, especially the evaluation radar chart being also drawn to obtain the evaluation results from a direct sight angle. Finally, some practical computer simulations are launched to prove the validity and feasibility of the research thinking and technologic approaches which are proposed in the paper.

  5. Improvements of existing early warning system in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomisa, T.

    2000-01-01

    The gamma radiation early warning system in Croatia was established in 1993. The first configuration contained 3 measuring stations connected to the monitoring center and up today the system is expanded with 5 additional locations. Each location is equipped with the MFM202 gamma-monitor and additional equipment that is not unique for all locations. This difference in remote equipment configuration caused by different communication medium used, is the reason to improve existing system trough equipment unification introducing PLC unit in the standard configuration. Such configuration enables additional functions such as automatic alerting and collecting meteorological data. (author)

  6. The Indian Ocean disaster: Tsunami physics and early warning dilemmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomnitz, Cinna; Nilsen-Hofseth, Sara

    Understanding the physics of tsunamis may save lives, especially near the epicenter of a large earthquake where the danger is highest and early warning is least likely to be effective.Normal modes of Earth are standing waves of the Love (toroidal) or the Rayleigh (spheroidal) variety. The Indian Ocean tsunami may have been partly or wholly caused by low-order spheroidal modes of the Earth such as 0S2, 0S3, and 0S4, that may have excited a waveguide—a layer that confines and guides a propagating wave—in the ocean.

  7. Ozone generation by rock fracture: Earthquake early warning?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baragiola, Raul A.; Dukes, Catherine A.; Hedges, Dawn [Engineering Physics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904 (United States)

    2011-11-14

    We report the production of up to 10 ppm ozone during crushing and grinding of typical terrestrial crust rocks in air, O{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} at atmospheric pressure, but not in helium or nitrogen. Ozone is formed by exoelectrons emitted by high electric fields, resulting from charge separation during fracture. The results suggest that ground level ozone produced by rock fracture, besides its potential health hazard, can be used for early warning in earthquakes and other catastrophes, such as landslides or land shifts in excavation tunnels and underground mines.

  8. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  9. Considerations and Future Research Directions for E-Cigarette Warnings-Findings from Expert Interviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wackowski, Olivia A; Hammond, David; O'Connor, Richard J; Strasser, Andrew A; Delnevo, Cristine D

    2017-07-14

    Tobacco warning labels are important sources of risk information but research historically has been cigarette-centric. This qualitative study aimed to inform future direction and research on warnings for e-cigarettes. Between June and August 2016, we conducted interviews with 10 researchers with expertise in tobacco warning label research. Interviewees were registrants of a 2016 National Cancer Institute grantee meeting on tobacco warnings. Several participants agreed that the Food and Drug Administration's new nicotine addiction warning for e-cigarettes could be informative but that it might not resonate with young people. Many agreed that more than one warning would be important as e-cigarette science evolves and that research on additional warning themes (e.g., nicotine exposure, harmful constituents) and execution styles (including use of pictorials) was important. Participants were somewhat mixed about the use of reduced-risk messages within e-cigarette warnings, but agreed that research on how to communicate about cigarette/e-cigarette relative risks was needed. Overall, more research is needed on tobacco warnings for non-cigarette products, including on the message content, placement, execution and potential impact on audiences' product knowledge, risk perceptions and use intentions. This is particularly needed for products such as e-cigarettes which may have harm-reduction potential relative to cigarettes and require unique considerations.

  10. Is More Better? - Night Vision Enhancement System's Pedestrian Warning Modes and Older Drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Timothy; He, Yefei; Roe, Cheryl; Schnell, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Pedestrian fatalities as a result of vehicle collisions are much more likely to happen at night than during day time. Poor visibility due to darkness is believed to be one of the causes for the higher vehicle collision rate at night. Existing studies have shown that night vision enhancement systems (NVES) may improve recognition distance, but may increase drivers' workload. The use of automatic warnings (AW) may help minimize workload, improve performance, and increase safety. In this study, we used a driving simulator to examine performance differences of a NVES with six different configurations of warning cues, including: visual, auditory, tactile, auditory and visual, tactile and visual, and no warning. Older drivers between the ages of 65 and 74 participated in the study. An analysis based on the distance to pedestrian threat at the onset of braking response revealed that tactile and auditory warnings performed the best, while visual warnings performed the worst. When tactile or auditory warnings were presented in combination with visual warning, their effectiveness decreased. This result demonstrated that, contrary to general sense regarding warning systems, multi-modal warnings involving visual cues degraded the effectiveness of NVES for older drivers.

  11. Is More Better? — Night Vision Enhancement System’s Pedestrian Warning Modes and Older Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Timothy; He, Yefei; Roe, Cheryl; Schnell, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Pedestrian fatalities as a result of vehicle collisions are much more likely to happen at night than during day time. Poor visibility due to darkness is believed to be one of the causes for the higher vehicle collision rate at night. Existing studies have shown that night vision enhancement systems (NVES) may improve recognition distance, but may increase drivers’ workload. The use of automatic warnings (AW) may help minimize workload, improve performance, and increase safety. In this study, we used a driving simulator to examine performance differences of a NVES with six different configurations of warning cues, including: visual, auditory, tactile, auditory and visual, tactile and visual, and no warning. Older drivers between the ages of 65 and 74 participated in the study. An analysis based on the distance to pedestrian threat at the onset of braking response revealed that tactile and auditory warnings performed the best, while visual warnings performed the worst. When tactile or auditory warnings were presented in combination with visual warning, their effectiveness decreased. This result demonstrated that, contrary to general sense regarding warning systems, multi-modal warnings involving visual cues degraded the effectiveness of NVES for older drivers. PMID:21050616

  12. Pictorial cigarette pack warnings: a meta-analysis of experimental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noar, Seth M; Hall, Marissa G; Francis, Diane B; Ribisl, Kurt M; Pepper, Jessica K; Brewer, Noel T

    2016-05-01

    To inform international research and policy, we conducted a meta-analysis of the experimental literature on pictorial cigarette pack warnings. We systematically searched 7 computerised databases in April 2013 using several search terms. We also searched reference lists of relevant articles. We included studies that used an experimental protocol to test cigarette pack warnings and reported data on both pictorial and text-only conditions. 37 studies with data on 48 independent samples (N=33,613) met criteria. Two independent coders coded all study characteristics. Effect sizes were computed from data extracted from study reports and were combined using random effects meta-analytic procedures. Pictorial warnings were more effective than text-only warnings for 12 of 17 effectiveness outcomes (all pnegative pack attitudes and negative smoking attitudes and (4) more effectively increased intentions to not start smoking and to quit smoking. Participants also perceived pictorial warnings as being more effective than text-only warnings across all 8 perceived effectiveness outcomes. The evidence from this international body of literature supports pictorial cigarette pack warnings as more effective than text-only warnings. Gaps in the literature include a lack of assessment of smoking behaviour and a dearth of theory-based research on how warnings exert their effects. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  13. Advanced driver assistance systems: Using multimodal redundant warnings to enhance road safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Francesco; Strayer, David L; Rossi, Riccardo; Gastaldi, Massimiliano; Mulatti, Claudio

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated whether multimodal redundant warnings presented by advanced assistance systems reduce brake response times. Warnings presented by assistance systems are designed to assist drivers by informing them that evasive driving maneuvers are needed in order to avoid a potential accident. If these warnings are poorly designed, they may distract drivers, slow their responses, and reduce road safety. In two experiments, participants drove a simulated vehicle equipped with a forward collision avoidance system. Auditory, vibrotactile, and multimodal warnings were presented when the time to collision was shorter than five seconds. The effects of these warnings were investigated with participants performing a concurrent cell phone conversation (Exp. 1) or driving in high-density traffic (Exp. 2). Braking times and subjective workload were measured. Multimodal redundant warnings elicited faster braking reaction times. These warnings were found to be effective even when talking on a cell phone (Exp. 1) or driving in dense traffic (Exp. 2). Multimodal warnings produced higher ratings of urgency, but ratings of frustration did not increase compared to other warnings. Findings obtained in these two experiments are important given that faster braking responses may reduce the potential for a collision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. CONCEPTUAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PACIFIC, ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEMS FOR CANADA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.S. Murty

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Canada has coastlines on three of the four oceans on the globe, namely, the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans. The Pacific and Atlantic oceans are connected to the Arctic Ocean in the north, but still they are three distinct oceans, and need three individual tsunami warning systems. Tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are not as well documented as in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. From what is known, tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are rare and probably are small in amplitude. Because of very low population density, around the Canadian Arctic, at present, there is no priority for a tsunami warning system for Arctic Canada. For the Pacific Ocean, a tsunami warning system is in existence since 1948. In at least one sense, the warning aspects of the tsunami warning system for the Pacific coast of Canada, is relatively simple and straight forward, because it involves only the federal government (PSEPC and the provincial government of British Columbia (PEP. For the Atlantic Ocean, A tsunami warning system is now being established. The warning aspects will be some what more complex for eastern Canada, since it not only involves the federal government, but also five provinces, namely, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Quebec. The Alaska tsunami warning center (ATWC in Palmer, Alaska, provides tsunami warnings for both Pacific and Atlantic Canada.

  15. MONITORING AND EARLY-WARNING OF METEOROLOGICAL RISK SITUATIONS IN OLTENIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BURADA CRISTINA

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Among the natural hazards affecting the human well-being and properties, meterological events are first to come in mind, due to their frequency, (immediate effects and (improving predictability. Assesment of these components are the first step in risk management, when the knowledge on the hazard type and characteristics is essential for defining the vulnerability and exposure and thus for preparing the mitigation plans. The spatial scale of dangerous meteorological situations is, in most cases, the regional one, but sometimes the area of major intensity or even the area of manifestation is small enough (e.g. hail, heavy rain showers to be classifed as ‚local’. Furthermore, other factors like the local geographical features, population density, goods and properties at risk (e.g. cultivated areas, buildings, infrastructure etc come into play in defining the severity of the weather event and/or the needs for interventions aiming to reduce the effects of the weather situation. In this context, the monitoring of potentially dangerous meteorological conditions and the improved forecasting capabilities and accuracy become increasingly important. In this paper, we present a short overview of the severe meteorological events affecting the Oltenia region along with aspects regarding their monitoring, early-warning and socio-economical impact in the area of interest, with a focus on the Dolj county during the 2013-2015 period.

  16. Development of an advanced radioactive airborne particle monitoring system for use in early warning networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, A; Corbacho, J A; Caballero, J M; Ontalba, M A; Vasco, J; Valencia, D

    2017-09-25

    Automatic real-time warning networks are essential for the almost immediate detection of anomalous levels of radioactivity in the environment. In the case of Extremadura region (SW Spain), a radiological network (RARE) has been operational in the vicinity of the Almaraz nuclear power plant and in other areas farther away since 1992. There are ten air monitoring stations equipped with Geiger-Müller counters in order to evaluate the external ambient gamma dose rate. Four of these stations have a commercial system that provides estimates of the total artificial alpha and beta activity concentrations in aerosols, and of the 131 I activity (gaseous fraction). Despite experience having demonstrated the benefits and robustness of these commercial systems, important improvements have been made to one of these air monitoring systems. In this paper, the analytical and maintenance shortcomings of the original commercial air monitoring system are described first; the new custom-designed advanced air monitoring system is then presented. This system is based mainly on the incorporation of gamma spectrometry using two scintillation detectors, one of NaI:Tl and the other of LaBr 3 :Ce, and compact multichannel analysers. Next, a comparison made of the results provided by the two systems operating simultaneously at the same location for three months shows the advantages of the new advanced air monitoring system. As a result, the gamma spectrometry analysis allows passing from global alpha and beta activity determinations due to artificial radionuclides in aerosols, and the inaccurate measurement of the gaseous 131 I activity concentration, to the possibility of identifying a large number of radionuclides and quantifying each of their activity concentrations. Moreover, the new station's dual capacity is designed to work in early warning monitoring mode and surveillance monitoring mode. This is based on custom developed software that includes an intelligent system to issue the

  17. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pclimate variables. Comparing the four multivariate models(i.e.1, 4, 9 and 13 weeks ahead), we found that including the climate variables improves the prediction RMSE as high as 3.24%, 10.39%, 17.96%, 21.81% respectively, in contrast to univariate models. Furthermore, the ability of the four multivariate models to determine whether the epidemic threshold would be exceeded in any given week during the forecasting period of 2010-2015 was

  18. Food and Drug Administration warning on anesthesia and brain development: implications for obstetric and fetal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olutoye, Olutoyin A; Baker, Byron Wycke; Belfort, Michael A; Olutoye, Oluyinka O

    2018-01-01

    There has been growing concern about the detrimental effects of certain anesthetic agents on the developing brain. Preclinical studies in small animal models as well as nonhuman primates suggested loss or death of brain cells and consequent impaired neurocognitive function following anesthetic exposure in neonates and late gestation fetuses. Human studies in this area are limited and currently inconclusive. On Dec. 14, 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration issued a warning regarding impaired brain development in children following exposure to certain anesthetic agents used for general anesthesia, namely the inhalational anesthetics isoflurane, sevoflurane, and desflurane, and the intravenous agents propofol and midazolam, in the third trimester of pregnancy. Furthermore, this warning recommends that health care professionals should balance the benefits of appropriate anesthesia in young children and pregnant women against potential risks, especially for procedures that may last >3 hours or if multiple procedures are required in children surgery in the second and third trimester; this exposure is typically longer than that for cesarean delivery. Very few studies address the effect of anesthetic exposure on the fetus in the second trimester when most nonobstetric and fetal surgical procedures are performed. It is also unclear how the plasticity of the fetal brain at this stage of development will modulate the consequences of anesthetic exposure. Strategies that may circumvent possible untoward long-term neurologic effects of anesthesia in the baby include: (1) use of nonimplicated (nongamma-aminobutyric acid agonist) agents for sedation such as opioids (remifentanil, fentanyl) or the alpha-2 agonist, dexmedetomidine, when appropriate; (2) minimizing the duration of exposure to inhalational anesthetics for fetal, obstetric, and nonobstetric procedures in the pregnant patient, as much as possible within safe limits; and (3) commencing surgery promptly and limiting

  19. A new Bayesian Inference-based Phase Associator for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Men-Andrin; Heaton, Thomas; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    State of the art network-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide warnings for large magnitude 7+ earthquakes. Although regions in the direct vicinity of the epicenter will not receive warnings prior to damaging shaking, real-time event characterization is available before the destructive S-wave arrival across much of the strongly affected region. In contrast, in the case of the more frequent medium size events, such as the devastating 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake, providing timely warning to the smaller damage zone is more difficult. For such events the "blind zone" of current systems (e.g. the CISN ShakeAlert system in California) is similar in size to the area over which severe damage occurs. We propose a faster and more robust Bayesian inference-based event associator, that in contrast to the current standard associators (e.g. Earthworm Binder), is tailored to EEW and exploits information other than only phase arrival times. In particular, the associator potentially allows for reliable automated event association with as little as two observations, which, compared to the ShakeAlert system, would speed up the real-time characterizations by about ten seconds and thus reduce the blind zone area by up to 80%. We compile an extensive data set of regional and teleseismic earthquake and noise waveforms spanning a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and tectonic regimes. We pass these waveforms through a causal real-time filterbank with passband filters between 0.1 and 50Hz, and, updating every second from the event detection, extract the maximum amplitudes in each frequency band. Using this dataset, we define distributions of amplitude maxima in each passband as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude. For the real-time data, we pass incoming broadband and strong motion waveforms through the same filterbank and extract an evolving set of maximum amplitudes in each passband. We use the maximum amplitude distributions to check

  20. Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick

    2012-12-15

    Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  1. Nipple Discharge: An Early Warning Sign of Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthasarathy, Veda; Rathnam, Usharani

    2012-01-01

    Nipple discharge (ND) can be the earliest presenting symptom of breast cancer. We hereby present two cases of breast cancer with no palpable mass manifesting as isolated ND, which was whitish in color. In both cases, cytology of the discharge revealed highly pleomorphic cells indicating a high grade malignancy. Mammography showed diffuse, extensive microcalcifications. Simple mastectomy with axillary clearance was done. Histology in both cases revealed diffusely spreading intraductal carcinoma, with focus of microinvasion in one case. ND if scanty or not blood stained is often ignored by the patients and at times, the clinicians. This article highlights that ND can be an early warning sign of intraductal carcinomas that are non-invasive in early stage. Irrespective of the color or nature of the discharge, unilateral ND needs to be evaluated. Proper clinical assessment, cytological evaluation of the ND, and mammography ought to be performed in all such cases. Considering the low level of awareness in women regarding the warning signs of breast cancer, the current focus is to create “breast awareness.” Women should be sensitized to recognize any unusual changes in their breasts and report to their health care providers at the earliest. PMID:23189234

  2. Forecasting in Intelligence: Indications and Warning Methodology in Modern Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Gennadievna Vlasova

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Today the national security system effectiveness seriously depends on the professional analysis of information and timely forecasts. Thus the efficient methods of forecasting in the sphere of international relations are of current importance for the modern intelligence services. The Indications and Warning Technique that was a key element of forecasting methodology in intelligence until the end of Cold War is estimated in the present article. Is this method still relevant in the contemporary world with its new international order, new security challenges and technological revolution in the data collection and processing? The main conclusion based on the overview of current researches and known intelligence practice is that indicators technique is still relevant for the early warning of national security threats but requires some adaptation to today’s issues. The most important trends in adaptation are supposed to be a creation of broadest possible spectrum of threatens scenarios as well as research of current strategic threatens and corresponding indicators. Also the appropriate software that automates the use of indications technique by the security services is very important. The author believes that the cooperation between intelligence services and academic community can increase the efficiency of the Indications Methodology and of the strategic forecasting as well.

  3. Hybrid Intelligent Warning System for Boiler tube Leak Trips

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Deshvin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Repeated boiler tube leak trips in coal fired power plants can increase operating cost significantly. An early detection and diagnosis of boiler trips is essential for continuous safe operations in the plant. In this study two artificial intelligent monitoring systems specialized in boiler tube leak trips have been proposed. The first intelligent warning system (IWS-1 represents the use of pure artificial neural network system whereas the second intelligent warning system (IWS-2 represents merging of genetic algorithms and artificial neural networks as a hybrid intelligent system. The Extreme Learning Machine (ELM methodology was also adopted in IWS-1 and compared with traditional training algorithms. Genetic algorithm (GA was adopted in IWS-2 to optimize the ANN topology and the boiler parameters. An integrated data preparation framework was established for 3 real cases of boiler tube leak trip based on a thermal power plant in Malaysia. Both the IWSs were developed using MATLAB coding for training and validation. The hybrid IWS-2 performed better than IWS-1.The developed system was validated to be able to predict trips before the plant monitoring system. The proposed artificial intelligent system could be adopted as a reliable monitoring system of the thermal power plant boilers.

  4. An Early Warning System for Oil Security in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingsong Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The oil system security in a country or region will affect its sustainable development ability. China’s oil security has risen to the national strategic level. It is urgent to construct an early warning indicator system to reflect the oil security level accurately, as well as to diagnose and assess the oil system status effectively and put forward the corresponding proposals for ensuring oil security. An early warning indicator system of China’s oil system covering 23 sub-indicators from three aspects, i.e., resource security, market security and consumption security, was constructed using the SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions factor analysis method. It shows that China’s oil system safety level has been seriously threatened and is generally declining. However, due to the strong introduction of energy policies and increasing energy utilization technology in recent years, the increasing proportion of new energy, renewable energy and oil substitutes eases the energy security threats. In response to complex oil security issues, the Chinese government needs to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control at the policy level continuously, increase efforts to explore resource reserves, upgrade energy conservation and emission reduction technologies, develop new alternatives for oil products, and reduce the dependence on international oil imports.

  5. Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey : Status Update 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kalafat, D.; Yilmazer, M.; Comoglu, M.; Sanli, U.; Gurbuz, C.; Erdik, M.

    2012-04-01

    This is an update to EGU2011-3094 informing on the progress of the establishment of a National Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey (NTWC-TR) under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission - Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (IOC-ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative. NTWC-TR is integrated into the 24/7 operational National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC) of KOERI comprising 129 BB and 61 strong motion sensors. Based on an agreement with the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (DEMP), data from 10 BB stations located in the Aegean and Mediterranean Coast is now transmitted in real time to KOERI. Real-time data transmission from 6 primary and 10 auxiliary stations from the International Monitoring System will be in place in the very near future based on an agreement concluded with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in 2011. In an agreement with a major Turkish GSM company, KOERI is enlarging its strong-motion network to promote real-time seismology and to extend Earthquake Early Warning system countrywide. 25 accelerometers (included in the number given above) have been purchased and installed at Base Transceiver Station Sites in coastal regions within the scope of this initiative. Data from 3 tide gauge stations operated by General Command of Mapping (GCM) is being transmitted to KOERI via satellite connection and the aim is to integrate all tide-gauge stations operated by GCM into NTWC-TR. A collaborative agreement has been signed with the European Commission - Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) and MOD1 Tsunami Scenario Database and TAT (Tsunami Analysis Tool) are received by KOERI and user training was provided. The database and the tool are linked to SeisComp3 and currently operational. In addition KOERI is continuing the work towards providing contributions to JRC in order to develop an improved database

  6. Flood early warning system in I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samadi, Slina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila

    2004-01-01

    At the close of the twentieth century, natural hazards and disasters are one of the most common forms of disasters around the world. Natural disasters cause in significant loss of life and serious economic, environmental and social impacts that greatly retard the development process. Careful hazard assessment and planning, and a range of social, economic and political measures, can significantly contain these threats. Risk is defined as the potential for loss or damage as the result of a particular action or decision and Risk Management is a process consisting of well-defined steps which, when taken in sequence, support better decision making by contributing to a greater insight into risks and their impacts. Most commonly, there are three components in a natural disaster plan: monitoring and early warning; risk assessment; and mitigation and response. Given the improved tools and technologies available today, it is possible to provide disaster information and minimize the potential damage of disasters. In the following parts of the report, the national early warning systems for flood would be discussed, as one of the important component of natural disaster risk management. In 1. R. of Iran, also, different types of natural disasters occur, such as drought, flood, earthquake, sea-level rise, dust storm, hail, freezing and etc, but Flood hazard and disaster is one of the most frequent and damaging types of natural disasters. They have been the most common type of geophysical disaster in the latter half of the twentieth century in Iran, generating an estimated more than 20 percent of all disasters from 1950 to 2003. One of the hazardous floods of Iran occurred in Golestan and north of Khorasan provinces, located in north-east of the country, on August 2001 and 2002. In this regard, according to the responsibility of I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) on the flood forecasting, the early warning issue of the mentioned flood, issued within 48 hour's in

  7. An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Vanderkimpen, P.; El Afandi, G.; Abdelkhalek, A.; Fockedey, S.; El Sammany, M.; Abdallah, G.; El Bihery, M.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2012-02-01

    An early warning system (EWS) for flash floods has been developed for part of the Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data (field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images) complemented with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge. Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1) an inventory of past significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2) the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall events and (3) transmission and infiltration losses and (4) thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr (1979-2010), only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.

  8. Impact of a warning CPOE system on the inappropriate pill splitting of prescribed medications in outpatients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Chen Hsu

    Full Text Available Prescribing inappropriate pill splitting is not rare in clinical practice. To reduce inappropriate pill splitting, we developed an automatic warning system linked to a computerized physician order entry (CPOE system for special oral formulation drugs in outpatient settings. We examined the impact of the warning system on inappropriate prescribing of pill splitting and assess prescribers' responses to the warnings.Drugs with extended-release or enteric-coated formulations that were not originally intended to be split were recognized as "special oral formulations". A hard-stop system which could examine non-integer doses of drugs with special oral formulations, provide warnings to interrupt inappropriate prescriptions was integrated in CPOE in a medical center since June 2010. We designed an intervention study to compare the inappropriate splitting before and after the implementation of the warning system (baseline period 2010 January to May vs. intervention period 2010 June to 2011 August. During the intervention period, prescription changes in response to a warning were logged and analyzed.A total of 470,611 prescribed drug items with 34 different drugs with special oral formulations were prescribed in the study period. During the 15-month intervention period, 909 warnings for 26 different drugs were triggered among 354,523 prescribed drug items with special oral formulations. The warning rate of inappropriate splitting in the late intervention period was lower than those in baseline period (0.16% vs. 0.61%, incidence rate ratio 0.27, 95% CI 0.23-0.31, P<0.001. In respond to warnings, physicians had to make adjustments, of which the majority was changing to an unsplit pill (72.9%.The interruptive warning system could avoid the prescriptions with inappropriate pill splitting. Accordingly, physicians changed their behavior of prescribing special oral formulations regarding inappropriate pill splitting. We suggest the establishment of such system

  9. [Reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening psychological, behavioral and developmental problems of children].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X N; Zhang, Y; Feng, W W; Wang, H S; Cao, B; Zhang, B; Yang, Y F; Wang, H M; Zheng, Y; Jin, X M; Jia, M X; Zou, X B; Zhao, C X; Robert, J; Jing, Jin

    2017-06-02

    Objective: To evaluate the reliability and validity of warning signs checklist developed by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHFPC), so as to determine the screening effectiveness of warning signs on developmental problems of early childhood. Method: Stratified random sampling method was used to assess the reliability and validity of checklist of warning sign and 2 110 children 0 to 6 years of age(1 513 low-risk subjects and 597 high-risk subjects) were recruited from 11 provinces of China. The reliability evaluation for the warning signs included the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability. With the use of Age and Stage Questionnaire (ASQ) and Gesell Development Diagnosis Scale (GESELL) as the criterion scales, criterion validity was assessed by determining the correlation and consistency between the screening results of warning signs and the criterion scales. Result: In terms of the warning signs, the screening positive rates at different ages ranged from 10.8%(21/141) to 26.2%(51/137). The median (interquartile) testing time for each subject was 1(0.6) minute. Both the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability of warning signs reached 0.7 or above, indicating that the stability was good. In terms of validity assessment, there was remarkable consistency between ASQ and warning signs, with the Kappa value of 0.63. With the use of GESELL as criterion, it was determined that the sensitivity of warning signs in children with suspected developmental delay was 82.2%, and the specificity was 77.7%. The overall Youden index was 0.6. Conclusion: The reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening early childhood developmental problems have met the basic requirements of psychological screening scales, with the characteristics of short testing time and easy operation. Thus, this warning signs checklist can be used for screening psychological and behavioral problems of early childhood

  10. Development of Early Warning System Using ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 Data to Detect and Prevent Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, M.; Nagatani, I.; Watanabe, T.; Tadono, T.; Miyoshi, H.; Watanabe, M.; Koyama, C.; Shimada, M.; Ogawa, T.; Ishii, K.; Higashiuwatoko, T.; Miura, M.; Okonogi, H.; Adachi, K.; Morita, T.

    2017-12-01

    Satellite observation is an efficient method for monitoring deforestation, and a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is useful especially in cloudy tropical forest regions. In this context, JICA and JAXA cooperate to operate the deforestation monitoring system acquired data by the Phased Array type L-band SAR-2 (PALSAR-2) onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2), which is named as "JICA-JAXA Forest Early Warning System in the Tropics" (JJ-FAST), and it have been released on November 2016. JJ-FAST detects deforestation areas, and provides their positional information for 77 countries, which is covering almost all tropical forests. It uses PALSAR-2 ScanSAR observation mode (wide-observation swath width) image, which is 50 m spatial resolution acquired at 1.5 months interval. The dark change areas compared with in two acquisitions by PALSAR-2 HV-polarization images are identified as deforestations in the system. We conducted field surveys to validate detection accuracy of the JJ-FAST in Peru (November and December, 2016), Botswana (April, 2017), and Gabon (July, 2017). As the results, 15 of 18 detected areas were correct deforestation areas, therefore user's accuracy could be confirmed as 83.3 % from limited number of the validation data. Erroneous detection areas were caused by seasonal change in agricultural land and open burning in grass land. For improvement of the accuracy, such areas must be excluded from the analysis by additional algorithms e.g. estimation of accurate masking for non-forested areas. Therefore, we are revising the forest map used for pre-processing step in the system. The JJ-FAST can be expected to contribute to monitor and reduce illegal deforestation activities in tropical forests.

  11. Model slope infiltration experiments for shallow landslides early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiano, E.; Greco, R.; Guida, A.; Olivares, L.; Picarelli, L.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of fast landslides has become more and more dangerous during the last decades, due to the increased density of settlements, industrial plants and infrastructures. Such problem is particularly worrying in Campania (Southern Italy), where the fast population growth led a diffuse building activity without planning: indeed, recent flowslides caused hundreds of victims and heavy damages to buildings, roads and other infrastructures. Large mountainous areas in Campania are mantled by loose pyroclastic granular soils up to a depth of a few meters from top soil surface. These soils have usually a grain size that falls in the domain of silty sands, including pumice interbeds (gravelly sands), with saturated hydraulic conductivities up to the order of 10-1 cm/min. Such deposits often cover steep slopes, which stability is guaranteed by the apparent cohesion due to suction under unsaturated conditions, that are the most common conditions for these slopes [Olivares and Picarelli, 2001]. Whereas rainfall infiltration causes soil to approach saturation, suction vanishes and slope failure may occur. Besides soil physical properties, landslide triggering is influenced by several factors, such as rainfall intensity, soil initial moisture and suction, slope inclination, boundary conditions. Whereas slope failure occurs with soil close to being saturated, landslide may develop in form of fast and destructive flowslide. Calibration of reliable mathematical models of such a complex phenomenon requires availability of experimental observations of the major variables of interest, such as soil moisture and suction, soil deformation and displacements, pore water pressure, during the entire process of infiltration until slope failure. Due to the sudden trigger and extremely rapid propagation of such type of landslides, such data sets are rarely available for natural slopes where flowslides occurred. As a consequence landslide risk assessment and early warning in Campania rely on

  12. Application of earthquake early warning system for disaster prevention in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, C.; Dumitru, G.; Oprescu, T.; Ana, E.; Sofilca, N.; Grigore, D.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The Romanian seismicity is dominated by the Vrancea deep (60-200 km) earthquakes which take place in a small volume located at the bend of Carpathian mountains, the place where three tectonic units are interacting: East-European, Intra-Alpine plates and Moesic sub-plate. Two or three events per century are devastating; having high energy they are felt over large and highly populated areas. The achievement of a seismic vulnerability reduction system for industrial and technological processes in the nuclear field intends to reduce possible after-earthquake damages which can take place in nuclear facilities situated in an extended area as compared to the usual one affected by Vrancea earthquakes. In this situation there are nuclear specific facilities like: - Van de Graaff Accelerator of IFIN-HH at Magurele; - TRIGA reactor operated at Pitesti, Mioveni, Jud. Arges; - Experimental Pilot Plant for tritium and deuterium separation of ICSI at Ramnicu Valcea; - Heavy water plant Drobeta Turnu Severin, Mehedinti. We intend to implement EEWS in the above sites in order to have a warning decision for earthquakes produced in Vrancea, Campulung Muscel and Herculane areas and its error-free transmission for activating the safety regulations for these facilities. (authors)

  13. [System construction of early warning for ecological security at cultural and natural heritage mixed sites and its application: a case study of Wuyishan Scenery District].

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Wei-Bin; He, Dong-Jin; Qin, De-Hua; Ji, Zhi-Rong; Wu, Li-Yun; Yu, Jian-An; Chen, Bing-Rong; Tan, Yong

    2014-05-01

    This paper proposed a new concept of ecological security for protection by a comprehensive analysis of the contents and standards of world heritage sites. A frame concept model named "Pressure-State-Control" for early warning of ecological security at world heritage mixed sites was constructed and evaluation indicators of this frame were also selected. Wuyishan Scenery District was chosen for a case study, which has been severely disturbed by natural and artificial factors. Based on the frame model of "Pressure-State-Control" and by employing extension analysis, the matter-element model was established to assess the ecological security status of this cultural and natural world heritage mixed site. The results showed that the accuracy of ecological security early warning reached 84%. Early warning rank was I level (no alert status) in 1997 and 2009, but that in 2009 had a higher possibility to convert into II level. Likewise, the early-warning indices of sensitive ranks were different between 1997 and 2009. Population density, population growth rate, area index for tea garden, cultivated land owned per capita, level of drought, and investment for ecological and environmental construction were the main limiting factors to hinder the development of ecological security from 2009 to future. In general, the status of Wuyishan Scenery District ecological security was relatively good and considered as no alert level, while risk conditions also existed in terms of a few early-warning indicators. We still need to pay more attention to serious alert indicators and adopt effective prevention and control measures to maintain a good ecological security status of this heritage site.

  14. Cigarette graphic warning labels increase both risk perceptions and smoking myth endorsement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Shoben, Abigail B; Meilleur, Louise R; Klein, Elizabeth G; Tompkins, Mary Kate; Tusler, Martin

    2018-02-01

    Cigarette graphic warning labels elicit negative emotion, which increases risk perceptions through multiple processes. We examined whether this emotion simultaneously affects motivated cognitions like smoking myth endorsement (e.g. 'exercise can undo the negative effects of smoking') and perceptions of cigarette danger versus other products. 736 adult and 469 teen smokers/vulnerable smokers viewed one of three warning label types (text-only, low emotion graphic or high emotion graphic) four times over two weeks. Emotional reactions to the warnings were reported during the first and fourth exposures. Participants reported how often they considered the warnings, smoking myth endorsement, risk perceptions and perceptions of cigarette danger relative to smokeless tobacco and electronic cigarettes. In structural equation models, emotional reactions influenced risk perceptions and smoking myth endorsement through two processes. Emotion acted as information about risk, directly increasing smoking risk perceptions and decreasing smoking myth endorsement. Emotion also acted as a spotlight, motivating consideration of the warning information. Warning consideration increased risk perceptions, but also increased smoking myth endorsement. Emotional reactions to warnings decreased perceptions of cigarette danger relative to other products. Emotional reactions to cigarette warnings increase smoking risk perceptions, but also smoking myth endorsement and misperceptions that cigarettes are less dangerous than potentially harm-reducing tobacco products.

  15. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

  16. ʿHello! I'm behind you’: Warnings at trouble moments in forklift driving

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nevile, Maurice Richard; Wagner, Johannes

    , movement, or activity, to another driver who then responds to the warning in appropriate ways. We examine precisely when such warnings occur in the order and course of progressing routine task performance, and especially how forms of talk (e.g. ‘hello!’, ‘I’m passing behind you’) relate to details...

  17. Key Parameters Estimation and Adaptive Warning Strategy for Rear-End Collision of Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Song

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The rear-end collision warning system requires reliable warning decision mechanism to adapt the actual driving situation. To overcome the shortcomings of existing warning methods, an adaptive strategy is proposed to address the practical aspects of the collision warning problem. The proposed strategy is based on the parameter-adaptive and variable-threshold approaches. First, several key parameter estimation algorithms are developed to provide more accurate and reliable information for subsequent warning method. They include a two-stage algorithm which contains a Kalman filter and a Luenberger observer for relative acceleration estimation, a Bayesian theory-based algorithm of estimating the road friction coefficient, and an artificial neural network for estimating the driver’s reaction time. Further, the variable-threshold warning method is designed to achieve the global warning decision. In the method, the safety distance is employed to judge the dangerous state. The calculation method of the safety distance in this paper can be adaptively adjusted according to the different driving conditions of the leading vehicle. Due to the real-time estimation of the key parameters and the adaptive calculation of the warning threshold, the strategy can adapt to various road and driving conditions. Finally, the proposed strategy is evaluated through simulation and field tests. The experimental results validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  18. 37 CFR 201.14 - Warnings of copyright for use by certain libraries and archives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... by certain libraries and archives. 201.14 Section 201.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights COPYRIGHT OFFICE, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS COPYRIGHT OFFICE AND PROCEDURES GENERAL PROVISIONS § 201.14 Warnings of copyright for use by certain libraries and archives. (a) Definitions. (1) A Display Warning of...

  19. A psychophysiological evaluation of the perceived urgency of auditory warning signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, J. L.; Bartolome, D. S.; Burdette, D. W.; Comstock, J. R. Jr

    1995-01-01

    One significant concern that pilots have about cockpit auditory warnings is that the signals presently used lack a sense of priority. The relationship between auditory warning sound parameters and perceived urgency is, therefore, an important topic of enquiry in aviation psychology. The present investigation examined the relationship among subjective assessments of urgency, reaction time, and brainwave activity with three auditory warning signals. Subjects performed a tracking task involving automated and manual conditions, and were presented with auditory warnings having various levels of perceived and situational urgency. Subjective assessments revealed that subjects were able to rank warnings on an urgency scale, but rankings were altered after warnings were mapped to a situational urgency scale. Reaction times differed between automated and manual tracking task conditions, and physiological data showed attentional differences in response to perceived and situational warning urgency levels. This study shows that the use of physiological measures sensitive to attention and arousal, in conjunction with behavioural and subjective measures, may lead to the design of auditory warnings that produce a sense of urgency in an operator that matches the urgency of the situation.

  20. Effectiveness of pictorial health warning on cigarette packages: A cross-sectional study in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Specific health warning placed on the tobacco product packages is considered as an effective and low-cost method for increasing the knowledge and awareness among the community. Thus, a study was conducted to assess the perception of pictorial health warnings (PHWs against smoking among the adult rural population of Sarawak.

  1. 16 CFR 307.12 - Rotation, display, and dissemination of warning statements in smokeless tobacco advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... proper rotation in different advertising media in sufficient detail to ensure compliance with the Act and... warning statements in smokeless tobacco advertising. 307.12 Section 307.12 Commercial Practices FEDERAL... warning statements in smokeless tobacco advertising. (a) In the case of advertising for a smokeless...

  2. Design and evaluation of warning systems: application to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pe Benito-Claudio, C.

    1986-01-01

    This study starts by defining and explaining key concepts about warning, both as a process and a system. Thereafter, it presents a quantitative, probabilistic, and decision-oriented methodology for designing and evaluating a warning system. It illustrates the methodology for the case of rare, controllable, and potentially disastrous technological events, such as accidents in nuclear power plants. The methodology covers and links the three principal components of a warning system - signal (which is mainly technical), warning dissemination, and warning response (which are mainly social) - thereby allowing the relative evaluation of technological and social measures for reducing risks. Analytical principles and techniques of risk and decision analyses are applied. It defines a probabilistic performance measure to characterize each component of a warning system, and a value measure to assess the overall effectiveness of the system. An important aspect of this work is the integration, into one analytical model, of the results of engineering studies, such as probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants, and of empirical findings on human response to warning in sociological research. The models, calculations, and sensitivity analyses are done with influence diagrams that are both intuitive and mathematical. This work puts particular emphasis on the study of behavioral response of individuals to warning

  3. Real-Time Target Motion Animation for Missile Warning System Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-04-01

    T. Perkins, R. Sundberg, J. Cordell, Z. Tun , and M. Owen, Real-time Target Motion Animation for Missile Warning System Testing, Proc. SPIE Vol 6208...Z39-18 Real-time target motion animation for missile warning system testing Timothy Perkins*a, Robert Sundberga, John Cordellb, Zaw Tunb, Mark

  4. The Influence of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Health Warning Labels on Parents' Choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberto, Christina A; Wong, Diandra; Musicus, Aviva; Hammond, David

    2016-02-01

    US states have introduced bills requiring sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) to display health warning labels. This study examined how such labels may influence parents and which labels are most impactful. In this study, 2381 demographically and educationally diverse parents participated in an online survey. Parents were randomly assigned to 1 of 6 conditions: (1) no warning label (control); (2) calorie label; or (3-6) 1 of 4 text versions of a warning label (eg, Safety Warning: Drinking beverages with added sugar[s] contributes to obesity, diabetes, and tooth decay). Parents chose a beverage for their child in a vending machine choice task, rated perceptions of different beverages, and indicated interest in receiving beverage coupons. Regression analyses controlling for frequency of beverage purchases were used to compare the no warning label group, calorie label group, and all warning label groups combined. Significantly fewer parents chose an SSB for their child in the warning label condition (40%) versus the no label (60%) and calorie label conditions (53%). Parents in the warning label condition also chose significantly fewer SSB coupons, believed that SSBs were less healthy for their child, and were less likely to intend to purchase SSBs. All P values parents' understanding of health harms associated with overconsumption of such beverages and may reduce parents' purchase of SSBs for their children. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  5. Not so Scary: Using and Defusing Content Warnings in the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenner, Sofia

    2018-01-01

    Content warnings--notices to students that class material may evoke their past traumas--have become entangled in (over)heated debates about the role of free speech on campus. Critics denounce content warnings as silencing tools intended to promote censorship, preclude discussion of difficult topics or punish professors who hold unpopular views.…

  6. Comprehending product warning information: age-related effects and the roles of memory, inferencing, and knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Holly E; Fisk, Arthur D; Rogers, Wendy A

    2005-01-01

    Two experiments were conducted to determine if age affects comprehension for explicit and implied warning information and, if so, to reveal the nature of such effects. Experiment 1 measured younger (18-23 years) and older (65-75 years) adults' comprehension for real-world warnings via a verification test presented immediately after reading the warnings or after a delay. In Experiment 2, younger (18-22 years) and older (64-76 years) participants also read fabricated warnings that were inconsistent with real-world knowledge. In both experiments, older adults frequently failed to infer the correct hazard and safety information. The older adults also had trouble understanding warning information even when it was explicitly stated (when no inferences were required), especially when memory demands were high and product-specific knowledge could not be used. That many of the older adults did not understand commonly used product warnings indicates that the wording on many household products is not conducive to being understood by everyone who uses them. Actual or potential applications of this research include the recommendation that designers of product labels, warnings, and instructions should consider minimizing memory load and maximizing opportunities for knowledge application when designing consumer warnings.

  7. Viewing alcohol warning advertising reduces urges to drink in young adults: an online experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Stautz, Kaidy; Marteau, Theresa M

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background Tobacco counter-advertising is effective at promoting smoking cessation. Few studies have evaluated the impact of alcohol warning advertising on alcohol consumption and possible mechanisms of effect. This pilot study aimed to assess whether alcohol warning advertising is effective in reducing urges to drink alcohol, if emotional responses to advertising explain any such effect or perceived effectiveness, and whether e...

  8. NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, P.; Refidaff, C.; Caropolo, M.; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Knight, W.; Sammler, W.; Sandrik, A.

    2009-01-01

    West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

  9. Predictors of compliance with tornado warnings issued in Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Bimal Kanti; Stimers, Mitchel; Caldas, Marcellus

    2015-01-01

    Joplin, a city in the southwest corner of Missouri, United States, suffered an EF-5 tornado in the late afternoon of 22 May 2011. This event, which claimed the lives of 162 people, represents the deadliest single tornado to strike the US since modern record-keeping began in 1950. This study examines the factors associated with responses to tornado warnings. Based on a post-tornado survey of survivors in Joplin, it reveals that tornado warnings were adequate and timely. Multivariate logistic regression identified four statistically significant determinants of compliance with tornado warnings: number of warning sources, whether respondents were at home when the tornado struck, past tornado experience, and gender. The findings suggest several recommendations, the implementation of which will further improve responses to tornado warnings. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  10. Diagnosis and Early Warning of Wind Turbine Faults Based on Cluster Analysis Theory and Modified ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan Zhou

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The construction of large-scale wind farms results in a dramatic increase of wind turbine (WT faults. The failure mode is also becoming increasingly complex. This study proposes a new model for early warning and diagnosis of WT faults to solve the problem of Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA systems, given that the traditional threshold method cannot provide timely warning. First, the characteristic quantity of fault early warning and diagnosis analyzed by clustering analysis can obtain in advance abnormal data in the normal threshold range by considering the effects of wind speed. Based on domain knowledge, Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS is then modified to establish the fault early warning and diagnosis model. This approach improves the accuracy of the model under the condition of absent and sparse training data. Case analysis shows that the effect of the early warning and diagnosis model in this study is better than that of the traditional threshold method.

  11. Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

    2018-01-01

    Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

  12. Evaluating the effectiveness of warning systems for nuclear power plant emergencies: criteria and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorensen, J.H.

    1984-01-01

    The accident at Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant in 1979 was an emergency management disaster. Chief among the problems was ineffective public warning and communications. While it is difficult to assign blame for that condition to any given party or determine if it was due to unique situational factors, the failure led to fairly significant regulatory changes in the arena of public warning and notification. These changes are intended to avoid the problems that arose during the TMI accident. This chapter reviews these regulations and suggests an alternative set of criteria for evaluating warning systems. The criteria are used to assess the effectiveness of the warning system at the Ft. St. Vrain nuclear power plant in Colorado. The paper concludes with some discussion of the lessons learned from the TMI experience as they apply to warning systems for all nuclear generating stations

  13. [Application of Big Data Mining Technology in Monitoring and Early-warning of Schistosomiasis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kun; Li, Shi-zhu

    2015-12-01

    The prevalence of schistosomiasis will soon be controlled to a low level in China. It is therefore imperative to establish a more sensitive and effective early warning system for schistosomiasis, so as to consolidate the achievements of the disease control. By covering four topics including the importance of early warning system for schistosomiasis and its research direction, as well as recent development in big data mining and its application in monitoring and early-warning of schistosomiasis, this review discusses the feasibility of data mining technology for monitoring and early warning of the disease. It is hoped that this technology would increase the efficacy of studies on monitoring and early warning, and promote the elimination of schistosomiasis in China.

  14. Impact of the New Malaysian Cigarette Pack Warnings on Smokers’ Awareness of Health Risks and Interest in Quitting Smoking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ron Borland

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research was to compare the response of adult smokers in Malaysia to newly proposed pictorial cigarette warnings against the current text-only warnings. The study population included 140 adult male smokers who were enrolled in a randomized trial to view either the new pictorial warnings (intervention or the old text-only warnings (control. Participants completed pre-exposure and post-exposure questionnaires that assessed their awareness of the health risks of smoking, response to the package warnings, and interest in quitting smoking. Exposure to the pictorial warnings resulted in increased awareness of the risks of smoking, stronger behavioral response to the warnings and increased interest in quitting smoking. The new warnings in Malaysia will increase smokers’ knowledge of the adverse health effects of smoking and have a positive effect on interest in quitting.

  15. Impact of the new Malaysian cigarette pack warnings on smokers' awareness of health risks and interest in quitting smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathelrahman, Ahmed I; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Cummings, K Michael; Borland, Ron; Bin Mohd Samin, Ahmad Shalihin

    2010-11-01

    The objective of this research was to compare the response of adult smokers in Malaysia to newly proposed pictorial cigarette warnings against the current text-only warnings. The study population included 140 adult male smokers who were enrolled in a randomized trial to view either the new pictorial warnings (intervention) or the old text-only warnings (control). Participants completed pre-exposure and post-exposure questionnaires that assessed their awareness of the health risks of smoking, response to the package warnings, and interest in quitting smoking. Exposure to the pictorial warnings resulted in increased awareness of the risks of smoking, stronger behavioral response to the warnings and increased interest in quitting smoking. The new warnings in Malaysia will increase smokers' knowledge of the adverse health effects of smoking and have a positive effect on interest in quitting.

  16. Perceived effectiveness of graphic health warnings as a deterrent for smoking initiation among adolescents in selected schools in southwest Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. O. Adebiyi

    2016-03-01

    Introduction of graphic health warnings, especially with an imagery depicting cancer and impotence may influence non-smokers to remain abstinent. Therefore, this study provides a template for a future policy-relevant study on graphic health warning in Nigeria.

  17. The effectiveness of current French health warnings displayed on alcohol advertisements and alcoholic beverages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossou, Gloria; Gallopel-Morvan, Karine; Diouf, Jacques-François

    2017-08-01

    Many countries use health warnings in an attempt to regulate alcohol consumption. However, there is a lack of conclusive evidence in the research on alcohol warnings to support decision-making on effective health policies. This study explores the effectiveness of two mandatory warnings introduced in France in 1991 and 2007: the first (Alcohol abuse is harmful) is displayed on alcohol advertisements; the second (a pictogram) on bottles. Given that advertising content regulations have been implemented in some countries to reduce the attractiveness of alcohol marketing (e.g. the Evin law in France), this research also aims to explore whether such regulations can improve the effectiveness of warnings. In-depth interviews were conducted with 26 French people aged 15-29 years. The effectiveness of health warnings was assessed in terms of recall, noticeability, credibility, comprehension, responsiveness, and ability to encourage moderate drinking and abstinence during pregnancy. Participants were shown alcohol advertisements and bottles that either followed or challenged content regulations. The data were analyzed using double manual coding and NVivo software. While both warnings suffered from a lack of visibility and noticeability due to their size, location, and outdatedness and because of competition from marketing design elements, the warning on the advertisement that followed content regulations was most visible. Both warnings were considered to be informationally vague, lacking in credibility and ineffective in terms of making participants feel concerned and influencing consumption habits. Current French warnings are ineffective and require modification. Improvements are suggested regarding the design and content of warnings to help increase their effectiveness. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  18. Analysis and design of the ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen-cong; Hu, Hui-jun; Jin, Dong-dong; Chu, Xin-bo; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Liu, Jin-sheng; Xiao, Ting; Shao, Si-pei

    2017-10-01

    Ultraviolet warning technology is one of the important methods for missile warning. It provides a very effective way to detect the target for missile approaching alarm. With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. Compared to infrared warning, the ultraviolet warning has high efficiency and low false alarm rate. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge of missile warning technology. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. For the ultraviolet warning system, the optimal working waveband is 250 nm 280 nm (Solar Blind UV) due to the strong absorption of ozone layer. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure includes a primary optical system, an ultraviolet reflector array, an ultraviolet imaging system and an ultraviolet interference imaging system. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm.A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

  19. Polish Early Warning Systems In Predicting Risk Of Bankruptcy Ff Wawel S.A In The Years 2013-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Tokarski

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The always relevant issues of the assessment of bankruptcy risk for enterprises require that bankruptcy processes occurring in Poland are analysed on a continuous basis. This leads to verification of the existing theory on economics of bankruptcies and business failures on the one hand, and its further evolution on the other hand. For business practice, of significant importance in this area are methods for effective (pre-emptive diagnosis of the signs of the deteriorating economic and financial situation of an enterprise, which can precede an enterprise’s loss of the ability to pay and consequently permanent insolvency (bankruptcy. The traditional ex post indicator analysis has become by far insufficient. Thus, as it evolved, various science and research centres around the around, including in Poland, were undertaking efforts to create new early warning systems to ensure pre-emptive assessment of the bankruptcy risk level for economic entities. An early warning system is one of the elements designed to assess the economic and financial situation of a company. It allows us to identify the risk at an early stage and implement appropriate corrective processes. Early identification of the signs of a pending crisis should thus be one of the basic tasks in the management of a company. The aim of the paper is to assess the identification of bankruptcy risk for the company Wawel S.A, with the analysis covering the period from 2013 to 2015 in the company's operation. Moreover, the authors of the paper show the possibility of the application of Polish models for bankruptcy risk assessment by both internal and external stakeholders, who can use the information contained in financial statements and calculated financial indicators to assess whether a given economic entity is a healthy or sick entity. The research methods used in the paper are: literature analysis, calculations by Polish early warning systems and analysis of the case study of the company

  20. Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Kuldeep; Pradhan, D.

    2018-01-01

    Two events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34 cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31 cm and Baran received 25 cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5 cm), Pratapgarh (23.2 cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7 cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on day 1 and day 2 forecasts and with small errors in intensity and space for day 3.