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Sample records for warming oceans threaten

  1. Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of

  2. Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging

  3. King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon

    2008-02-19

    Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.

  4. Warming of the Indian Ocean Threatens Eastern and Southern Africa, but could be Mitigated by Agricultural Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris; Dettinger, Michael D.; Brown, Molly E.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Verdin, James P.; Barlow, Mathew; Howell, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high and declining per capita agricultural capacity retards progress towards Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation identify another problematic trend. Main growing season rainfall receipts have diminished by approximately 15% in food insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus late 20th century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling millions of undernourished people as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people. On the other hand, modest increases in per capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.

  5. Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

    2006-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

  6. Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-26

    Global warming has impacted the Arctic Ocean by significantly reducing the extent of the summer ice cover allowing greater access to the region...increased operations in the Arctic region, and DoD must continue to research and develop new and alternate energy sources for its forces. Global warming is

  7. Seagrass ecophysiological performance under ocean warming and acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Repolho, Tiago; Duarte, Bernardo; Dionísio, Gisela; Paula, José Ricardo; Lopes, Ana R; Rosa, Inês C; Grilo, Tiago F; Caçador, Isabel; Calado, Ricardo; Rosa, Rui

    2017-02-01

    Seagrasses play an essential ecological role within coastal habitats and their worldwide population decline has been linked to different types of anthropogenic forces. We investigated, for the first time, the combined effects of future ocean warming and acidification on fundamental biological processes of Zostera noltii, including shoot density, leaf coloration, photophysiology (electron transport rate, ETR; maximum PSII quantum yield, F v /F m ) and photosynthetic pigments. Shoot density was severely affected under warming conditions, with a concomitant increase in the frequency of brownish colored leaves (seagrass die-off). Warming was responsible for a significant decrease in ETR and F v /F m (particularly under control pH conditions), while promoting the highest ETR variability (among experimental treatments). Warming also elicited a significant increase in pheophytin and carotenoid levels, alongside an increase in carotenoid/chlorophyll ratio and De-Epoxidation State (DES). Acidification significantly affected photosynthetic pigments content (antheraxanthin, β-carotene, violaxanthin and zeaxanthin), with a significant decrease being recorded under the warming scenario. No significant interaction between ocean acidification and warming was observed. Our findings suggest that future ocean warming will be a foremost determinant stressor influencing Z. noltii survival and physiological performance. Additionally, acidification conditions to occur in the future will be unable to counteract deleterious effects posed by ocean warming.

  8. Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris; Dettinger, Michael D; Michaelsen, Joel C; Verdin, James P; Brown, Molly E; Barlow, Mathew; Hoell, Andrew

    2008-08-12

    Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by approximately 15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling "millions of undernourished people" as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.

  9. Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris C.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Verdin, James P.; Brown, Molly E.; Barlow, Mathew; Hoell, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by ???15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling 'millions of undernourished people' as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

  10. Ocean warming and acidification have complex interactive effects on the dynamics of a marine fungal disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Gareth J.; Price, Nichole N.; Ushijima, Blake; Aeby, Greta S.; Callahan, Sean M.; Davy, Simon K.; Gove, Jamison M.; Johnson, Maggie D.; Knapp, Ingrid S.; Shore-Maggio, Amanda; Smith, Jennifer E.; Videau, Patrick; Work, Thierry M.

    2014-01-01

    Diseases threaten the structure and function of marine ecosystems and are contributing to the global decline of coral reefs. We currently lack an understanding of how climate change stressors, such as ocean acidification (OA) and warming, may simultaneously affect coral reef disease dynamics, particularly diseases threatening key reef-building organisms, for example crustose coralline algae (CCA). Here, we use coralline fungal disease (CFD), a previously described CCA disease from the Pacific, to examine these simultaneous effects using both field observations and experimental manipulations. We identify the associated fungus as belonging to the subphylum Ustilaginomycetes and show linear lesion expansion rates on individual hosts can reach 6.5 mm per day. Further, we demonstrate for the first time, to our knowledge, that ocean-warming events could increase the frequency of CFD outbreaks on coral reefs, but that OA-induced lowering of pH may ameliorate outbreaks by slowing lesion expansion rates on individual hosts. Lowered pH may still reduce overall host survivorship, however, by reducing calcification and facilitating fungal bio-erosion. Such complex, interactive effects between simultaneous extrinsic environmental stressors on disease dynamics are important to consider if we are to accurately predict the response of coral reef communities to future climate change.

  11. Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

  12. Ocean acidification ameliorates harmful effects of warming in primary consumer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Sindre Andre; Hanssen, Anja Elise

    2018-01-01

    Climate change-induced warming and ocean acidification are considered two imminent threats to marine biodiversity and current ecosystem structures. Here, we have for the first time examined an animal's response to a complete life cycle of exposure to co-occurring warming (+3°C) and ocean acidification (+1,600 μatm CO 2 ), using the key subarctic planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus , as a model species. The animals were generally negatively affected by warming, which significantly reduced the females' energy status and reproductive parameters (respectively, 95% and 69%-87% vs. control). Unexpectedly, simultaneous acidification partially offset the negative effect of warming in an antagonistic manner, significantly improving reproductive parameters and hatching success (233%-340% improvement vs. single warming exposure). The results provide proof of concept that ocean acidification may partially offset negative effects caused by warming in some species. Possible explanations and ecological implications for the observed antagonistic effect are discussed.

  13. Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A

    2018-05-08

    In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

  14. Coherent Multidecadal Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability in the North Atlantic: Blocking Corresponds with Warm Subpolar Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa M.; Rhines, P. B.; Worthen, D. L.

    2012-01-01

    Winters with frequent atmospheric blocking, in a band of latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean. This is evident in atmospheric reanalysis data, both modern and for the full 20th century. Blocking is approximately in phase with Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV). Wintertime atmospheric blocking involves a highly distorted jetstream, isolating large regions of air from the westerly circulation. It influences the ocean through windstress-curl and associated air/sea heat flux. While blocking is a relatively high-frequency phenomenon, it is strongly modulated over decadal timescales. The blocked regime (weaker ocean gyres, weaker air-sea heat flux, paradoxically increased transport of warm subtropical waters poleward) contributes to the warm phase of AMV. Atmospheric blocking better describes the early 20thC warming and 1996-2010 warm period than does the NAO index. It has roots in the hemispheric circulation and jet stream dynamics. Subpolar Atlantic variability covaries with distant AMOC fields: both these connections may express the global influence of the subpolar North Atlantic ocean on the global climate system.

  15. How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

  16. 77 FR 76065 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Draft Revised Recovery Plan for Kendall Warm...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-26

    ...] Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Draft Revised Recovery Plan for Kendall Warm Springs Dace... revised recovery plan for the Kendall Warm Springs dace (Rhinichthys osculus thermalis). This species is... recovery plan. The Kendall Warm Springs dace (Rhinichthys osculus thermalis), found only in one location in...

  17. Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abram, Nerilie J; McGregor, Helen V; Tierney, Jessica E; Evans, Michael N; McKay, Nicholas P; Kaufman, Darrell S

    2016-08-25

    The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

  18. Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Ralph E; Körtzinger, Arne; Gruber, Nicolas

    2010-01-01

    Ocean warming and increased stratification of the upper ocean caused by global climate change will likely lead to declines in dissolved O2 in the ocean interior (ocean deoxygenation) with implications for ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycling, and marine habitat. Ocean models predict declines of 1 to 7% in the global ocean O2 inventory over the next century, with declines continuing for a thousand years or more into the future. An important consequence may be an expansion in the area and volume of so-called oxygen minimum zones, where O2 levels are too low to support many macrofauna and profound changes in biogeochemical cycling occur. Significant deoxygenation has occurred over the past 50 years in the North Pacific and tropical oceans, suggesting larger changes are looming. The potential for larger O2 declines in the future suggests the need for an improved observing system for tracking ocean 02 changes.

  19. Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Gary P; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Gorton, Rebecca; Richardson, Anthony J

    2012-12-01

    An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Seahorses under a changing ocean: the impact of warming and acidification on the behaviour and physiology of a poor-swimming bony-armoured fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Santos, Catarina; Aurélio, Maria L; Pimentel, Marta; Pegado, Maria Rita; Paula, José Ricardo; Calado, Ricardo; Repolho, Tiago; Rosa, Rui

    2015-01-01

    Seahorses are currently facing great challenges in the wild, including habitat degradation and overexploitation, and how they will endure additional stress from rapid climate change has yet to be determined. Unlike most fishes, the poor swimming skills of seahorses, along with the ecological and biological constraints of their unique lifestyle, place great weight on their physiological ability to cope with climate changes. In the present study, we evaluate the effects of ocean warming (+4°C) and acidification (ΔpH = -0.5 units) on the physiological and behavioural ecology of adult temperate seahorses, Hippocampus guttulatus. Adult seahorses were found to be relatively well prepared to face future changes in ocean temperature, but not the combined effect of warming and acidification. Seahorse metabolism increased normally with warming, and behavioural and feeding responses were not significantly affected. However, during hypercapnia the seahorses exhibited signs of lethargy (i.e. reduced activity levels) combined with a reduction of feeding and ventilation rates. Nonetheless, metabolic rates were not significantly affected. Future ocean changes, particularly ocean acidification, may further threaten seahorse conservation, turning these charismatic fishes into important flagship species for global climate change issues.

  1. Responses of the metabolism of the larvae of Pocillopora damicornis to ocean acidification and warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily B Rivest

    Full Text Available Ocean acidification and warming are expected to threaten the persistence of tropical coral reef ecosystems. As coral reefs face multiple stressors, the distribution and abundance of corals will depend on the successful dispersal and settlement of coral larvae under changing environmental conditions. To explore this scenario, we used metabolic rate, at holobiont and molecular levels, as an index for assessing the physiological plasticity of Pocillopora damicornis larvae from this site to conditions of ocean acidity and warming. Larvae were incubated for 6 hours in seawater containing combinations of CO2 concentration (450 and 950 µatm and temperature (28 and 30°C. Rates of larval oxygen consumption were higher at elevated temperatures. In contrast, high CO2 levels elicited depressed metabolic rates, especially for larvae released later in the spawning period. Rates of citrate synthase, a rate-limiting enzyme in aerobic metabolism, suggested a biochemical limit for increasing oxidative capacity in coral larvae in a warming, acidifying ocean. Biological responses were also compared between larvae released from adult colonies on the same day (cohorts. The metabolic physiology of Pocillopora damicornis larvae varied significantly by day of release. Additionally, we used environmental data collected on a reef in Moorea, French Polynesia to provide information about what adult corals and larvae may currently experience in the field. An autonomous pH sensor provided a continuous time series of pH on the natal fringing reef. In February/March, 2011, pH values averaged 8.075 ± 0.023. Our results suggest that without adaptation or acclimatization, only a portion of naïve Pocillopora damicornis larvae may have suitable metabolic phenotypes for maintaining function and fitness in an end-of-the century ocean.

  2. On some aspects of Indian Ocean warm pool

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saji, P.K.; Balchand, A.N.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    Annual and interannual variation of Indian Ocean Warm Pool (IOWP) was studied using satellite and in situ ocean temperature data IOWP surface area undergoes a strong annual cycle attaining a maximum of 24x106km2 during April...

  3. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-11-13

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

  4. Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO 2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming: OCEAN HEAT AND POLAR WARMING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, H. A. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, U.S. DOE Office of Science, Richland WA USA; Rasch, P. J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, U.S. DOE Office of Science, Richland WA USA; Rose, B. E. J. [Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, State University of New York at Albany, Albany NY USA

    2017-10-18

    We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2-doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2-doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high-latitudes warm while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar mid-troposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at high latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.

  5. Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Nicolas

    2011-05-28

    In the coming decades and centuries, the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems will become increasingly stressed by at least three independent factors. Rising temperatures, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation will cause substantial changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment, which will then affect the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems in ways that we are only beginning to fathom. Ocean warming will not only affect organisms and biogeochemical cycles directly, but will also increase upper ocean stratification. The changes in the ocean's carbonate chemistry induced by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) (i.e. ocean acidification) will probably affect many organisms and processes, although in ways that are currently not well understood. Ocean deoxygenation, i.e. the loss of dissolved oxygen (O(2)) from the ocean, is bound to occur in a warming and more stratified ocean, causing stress to macro-organisms that critically depend on sufficient levels of oxygen. These three stressors-warming, acidification and deoxygenation-will tend to operate globally, although with distinct regional differences. The impacts of ocean acidification tend to be strongest in the high latitudes, whereas the low-oxygen regions of the low latitudes are most vulnerable to ocean deoxygenation. Specific regions, such as the eastern boundary upwelling systems, will be strongly affected by all three stressors, making them potential hotspots for change. Of additional concern are synergistic effects, such as ocean acidification-induced changes in the type and magnitude of the organic matter exported to the ocean's interior, which then might cause substantial changes in the oxygen concentration there. Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time scales, i.e. once these changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the ocean to recover. With the emission of CO(2) being the primary driver

  6. Trends in the Indian Ocean Climatology due to anthropogenic induced global warming

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyer, AA

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available clearly show that due to global warming the South West Indian Ocean Climatology has been changing and that this changing trend will continue into the future as global warming continues. The impacts of regional oceanic climate change on the regions coastal...

  7. Ocean warming and acidification synergistically increase coral mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prada, F.; Caroselli, E.; Mengoli, S.; Brizi, L.; Fantazzini, P.; Capaccioni, B.; Pasquini, L.; Fabricius, K. E.; Dubinsky, Z.; Falini, G.; Goffredo, S.

    2017-01-01

    Organisms that accumulate calcium carbonate structures are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA), potentially reducing the socioeconomic benefits of ecosystems reliant on these taxa. Since rising atmospheric CO2 is responsible for global warming and increasing ocean acidity, to correctly predict how OW and OA will affect marine organisms, their possible interactive effects must be assessed. Here we investigate, in the field, the combined temperature (range: 16-26 °C) and acidification (range: pHTS 8.1-7.4) effects on mortality and growth of Mediterranean coral species transplanted, in different seasonal periods, along a natural pH gradient generated by a CO2 vent. We show a synergistic adverse effect on mortality rates (up to 60%), for solitary and colonial, symbiotic and asymbiotic corals, suggesting that high seawater temperatures may have increased their metabolic rates which, in conjunction with decreasing pH, could have led to rapid deterioration of cellular processes and performance. The net calcification rate of the symbiotic species was not affected by decreasing pH, regardless of temperature, while in the two asymbiotic species it was negatively affected by increasing acidification and temperature, suggesting that symbiotic corals may be more tolerant to increasing warming and acidifying conditions compared to asymbiotic ones.

  8. The Change in Oceanic O2 Inventory Associated with Recent Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Ralph; Garcia, Hernan

    2002-01-01

    Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O2 inventory and an associated O2 outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O2 flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol O2 per Joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O2 solubility, indicating that most of the O2 exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O2 inventory through the 1990's is estimated to be 0.3 - 0.4 x 10(exp 14) mol O2 per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O2 flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O2/N2 ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.

  9. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1992-12-01

    During the past three years we have conducted several studies using models and a combination of satellite data, in situ meteorological and oceanic data, and paleoclimate reconstructions, under the DoE program, ''Quantifying the Link Between Change in Radiative Balance and Atmospheric Temperature''. Our goals were to investigate effects of global cloudiness variations on global climate and their implications for cloud feedback and continue development and application of NYU transient climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by both the clouds and oceans. Our original research plan emphasized the use of cloud, surface temperature and ocean data sets interpreted by focused climate/ocean models to develop a cloud radiative forcing scenario for the past 100 years and to assess the transient climate response; to narrow key uncertainties in the system; and to identify those aspects of the climate system most likely to be affected by greenhouse warming over short, medium and long time scales

  10. The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

  11. Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

  12. Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

  13. More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

    2017-10-01

    The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

  14. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-01-01

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east–west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific’s could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries. PMID:23112174

  15. Warming and surface ocean acidification over the last deglaciation: implications for foraminiferal assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyez, K. A.; Hoenisch, B.; deMenocal, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    Although plankton drift with ocean currents, their presence and relative abundance varies across latitudes and environmental seawater conditions (e.g. temperature, pH, salinity). While earlier studies have focused on temperature as the primary factor for determining the regional species composition of planktic foraminiferal communities, evidence has recently been presented that foraminiferal shell thickness varies with ocean pH, and it remains unclear whether ongoing ocean acidification will cause ecological shifts within this plankton group. The transition from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 19,000-23,000 years B.P.) to the late Holocene (0-5,000 years B.P.) was characterized by both warming and acidification of the surface ocean, and thus provides an opportunity to study ecosystem shifts in response to these environmental changes. Here we provide new δ11B, Mg/Ca, and δ18O measurements from a suite of global sediment cores spanning this time range. We use these geochemical data to reconstruct ocean temperature, pH and salinity and pair the new data with previously published analyses of planktic foraminifera assemblages to study the respective effects of ocean warming and acidification on the foraminiferal habitat. At most open-ocean sample locations, our proxies indicate warming and acidification similar to previously published estimates, but in some marginal seas and coastal locations pH changes little between over the glacial termination. At face value, these observations suggest that warming is generally more important for ecosystem changes than acidification, at least over the slow rates of warming and ocean acidification in this time period. While geochemical data collection is being completed, we aim to include these data in an ecological model of foraminiferal habitat preferences.

  16. Deep oceans may acidify faster than anticipated due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Lui, Hon-Kit; Hsieh, Chia-Han; Yanagi, Tetsuo; Kosugi, Naohiro; Ishii, Masao; Gong, Gwo-Ching

    2017-12-01

    Oceans worldwide are undergoing acidification due to the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere1-4. The rate of acidification generally diminishes with increasing depth. Yet, slowing down of the thermohaline circulation due to global warming could reduce the pH in the deep oceans, as more organic material would decompose with a longer residence time. To elucidate this process, a time-series study at a climatically sensitive region with sufficient duration and resolution is needed. Here we show that deep waters in the Sea of Japan are undergoing reduced ventilation, reducing the pH of seawater. As a result, the acidification rate near the bottom of the Sea of Japan is 27% higher than the rate at the surface, which is the same as that predicted assuming an air-sea CO2 equilibrium. This reduced ventilation may be due to global warming and, as an oceanic microcosm with its own deep- and bottom-water formations, the Sea of Japan provides an insight into how future warming might alter the deep-ocean acidification.

  17. Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

    2017-09-01

    Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Ocean acidification and global warming impair shark hunting behaviour and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pistevos, Jennifer C A; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Rossi, Tullio; Olmos, Maxime; Connell, Sean D

    2015-11-12

    Alterations in predation pressure can have large effects on trophically-structured systems. Modification of predator behaviour via ocean warming has been assessed by laboratory experimentation and metabolic theory. However, the influence of ocean acidification with ocean warming remains largely unexplored for mesopredators, including experimental assessments that incorporate key components of the assemblages in which animals naturally live. We employ a combination of long-term laboratory and mesocosm experiments containing natural prey and habitat to assess how warming and acidification affect the development, growth, and hunting behaviour in sharks. Although embryonic development was faster due to temperature, elevated temperature and CO2 had detrimental effects on sharks by not only increasing energetic demands, but also by decreasing metabolic efficiency and reducing their ability to locate food through olfaction. The combination of these effects led to considerable reductions in growth rates of sharks held in natural mesocosms with elevated CO2, either alone or in combination with higher temperature. Our results suggest a more complex reality for predators, where ocean acidification reduces their ability to effectively hunt and exert strong top-down control over food webs.

  19. Frequency of Tropical Ocean Deep Convection and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumann, H. H.; Behrangi, A.; Ruzmaikin, A.

    2017-12-01

    The average of 36 CMIP5 models predicts about 3K of warming and a 4.7% increase in precipitation for the tropical oceans with a doubling of the CO2 by the end of this century. For this scenario we evaluate the increase in the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) in the tropical oceans. We select only DCC which reach or penetrate the tropopause in the 15 km AIRS footprint. The evaluation is based on Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the current temperatures of the tropical oceans, those predicted by the mean of the CMIP5 models and the PDF of the DCC process. The PDF of the DCC process is derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) between the years 2003 and 2016. During this time the variability due Enso years provided a 1 K p-p change in the mean tropical SST. The key parameter is the SST associated with the onset of the DCC process. This parameter shifts only 0.5 K for each K of warming of the oceans. As a result the frequency of DCC is expected to increases by the end of this century by about 50% above the current frequency.

  20. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

    2013-05-16

    Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

  1. Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Liu, Wei

    2015-10-10

    The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

  2. Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the productivity of a rock pool community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legrand, Erwann; Riera, Pascal; Bohner, Olivier; Coudret, Jérôme; Schlicklin, Ferdinand; Derrien, Marie; Martin, Sophie

    2018-05-01

    This study examined experimentally the combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the productivity of rock pool multi-specific assemblages, composed of coralline algae, fleshy algae, and grazers. Natural rock pool communities experience high environmental fluctuations. This may confer physiological advantage to rock pool communities when facing predicted acidification and warming. The effect of ocean acidification and warming have been assessed at both individual and assemblage level to examine the importance of species interactions in the response of assemblages. We hypothesized that rock pool assemblages have physiological advantage when facing predicted ocean acidification and warming. Species exhibited species-specific responses to increased temperature and pCO 2 . Increased temperature and pCO 2 have no effect on assemblage photosynthesis, which was mostly influenced by fleshy algal primary production. The response of coralline algae to ocean acidification and warming depended on the season, which evidenced the importance of physiological adaptations to their environment in their response to climate change. We suggest that rock pool assemblages are relatively robust to changes in temperature and pCO 2 , in terms of primary production. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028

  4. Threatened Caribbean coral is able to mitigate the adverse effects of ocean acidification on calcification by increasing feeding rate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erica K Towle

    Full Text Available Global climate change threatens coral growth and reef ecosystem health via ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA. Whereas the negative impacts of these stressors are increasingly well-documented, studies identifying pathways to resilience are still poorly understood. Heterotrophy has been shown to help corals experiencing decreases in growth due to either thermal or OA stress; however, the mechanism by which it mitigates these decreases remains unclear. This study tested the ability of coral heterotrophy to mitigate reductions in growth due to climate change stress in the critically endangered Caribbean coral Acropora cervicornis via changes in feeding rate and lipid content. Corals were either fed or unfed and exposed to elevated temperature (30°C, enriched pCO2 (800 ppm, or both (30°C/800 ppm as compared to a control (26°C/390 ppm for 8 weeks. Feeding rate and lipid content both increased in corals experiencing OA vs. present-day conditions, and were significantly correlated. Fed corals were able to maintain ambient growth rates at both elevated temperature and elevated CO2, while unfed corals experienced significant decreases in growth with respect to fed conspecifics. Our results show for the first time that a threatened coral species can buffer OA-reduced calcification by increasing feeding rates and lipid content.

  5. The ratio of land to ocean temperature change under global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, c/o University of Victoria, PO Box 1700, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2011-12-15

    The result in climate simulations, supported in the observation-based record, is that the ratio {phi}= T{sub L}/T{sub O} of land-average to ocean-average temperature change is greater than one and varies comparatively modestly as climate changes. This is investigated in results from the CMIP3 data archive of climate change simulations following the B1 and more strongly forced A1B scenarios as well as in 2 x CO{sub 2} integrations. The associated precipitation ratio {psi}=P{sub L}/P{sub O} is also considered briefly. The behaviour of {phi} is analyzed in terms of a forcing-response view of the energy balance over land and ocean regions. The analysis indicates that the value of {phi}> 1 is not maintained by separate local balances over land and ocean but by an energetic balance that also involves a change in transport between the regions. The transport change does not restrain the land warming by exporting energy to the ocean region but, rather, the reverse. The anomalous transport is from the ocean to the land region even though the ocean warms less than the land does. Feedbacks in the ocean region, especially in the equatorial Pacific, do not sufficiently counteract the forcing and the result is an excess of energy that is transported to the land. The land warms in order to radiate away both the energy from the forcing over land but also the extra energy imported from the ocean region, thereby maintaining {phi} > 1. This situation can be understood to parallel the SST-forced case in model studies where {phi} > 1 despite the forcing being confined to the ocean area. The climate system is effective in redistributing forcing so that it is the local feedbacks, rather than the pattern of the forcing, that determine the temperature response. Land and ocean averaged quantities and budgets behave in a consistent manner to provide a simplified representation of the changes in temperature and energetic processes that are occurring. The geographical distributions of the terms

  6. Ocean acidification exerts negative effects during warming conditions in a developing Antarctic fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Erin E; Bjelde, Brittany E; Miller, Nathan A; Todgham, Anne E

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic CO2 is rapidly causing oceans to become warmer and more acidic, challenging marine ectotherms to respond to simultaneous changes in their environment. While recent work has highlighted that marine fishes, particularly during early development, can be vulnerable to ocean acidification, we lack an understanding of how life-history strategies, ecosystems and concurrent ocean warming interplay with interspecific susceptibility. To address the effects of multiple ocean changes on cold-adapted, slowly developing fishes, we investigated the interactive effects of elevated partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and temperature on the embryonic physiology of an Antarctic dragonfish (Gymnodraco acuticeps), with protracted embryogenesis (∼10 months). Using an integrative, experimental approach, our research examined the impacts of near-future warming [-1 (ambient) and 2°C (+3°C)] and ocean acidification [420 (ambient), 650 (moderate) and 1000 μatm pCO2 (high)] on survival, development and metabolic processes over the course of 3 weeks in early development. In the presence of increased pCO2 alone, embryonic mortality did not increase, with greatest overall survival at the highest pCO2. Furthermore, embryos were significantly more likely to be at a later developmental stage at high pCO2 by 3 weeks relative to ambient pCO2. However, in combined warming and ocean acidification scenarios, dragonfish embryos experienced a dose-dependent, synergistic decrease in survival and developed more slowly. We also found significant interactions between temperature, pCO2 and time in aerobic enzyme activity (citrate synthase). Increased temperature alone increased whole-organism metabolic rate (O2 consumption) and developmental rate and slightly decreased osmolality at the cost of increased mortality. Our findings suggest that developing dragonfish are more sensitive to ocean warming and may experience negative physiological effects of ocean acidification only in

  7. Ocean warming ameliorates the negative effects of ocean acidification on Paracentrotus lividus larval development and settlement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Eliseba; Clemente, Sabrina; Hernández, José Carlos

    2015-09-01

    Ocean warming and acidification both impact marine ecosystems. All organisms have a limited body temperature range, outside of which they become functionally constrained. Beyond the absolute extremes of this range, they cannot survive. It is hypothesized that some stressors can present effects that interact with other environmental variables, such as ocean acidification (OA) that have the potential to narrow the thermal range where marine species are functional. An organism's response to ocean acidification can therefore be highly dependent on thermal conditions. This study evaluated the combined effects of predicted ocean warming conditions and acidification, on survival, development, and settlement, of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Nine combined treatments of temperature (19.0, 20.5 and 22.5 °C) and pH (8.1, 7.7 and 7.4 units) were carried out. All of the conditions tested were either within the current natural ranges of seawater pH and temperature or are within the ranges that have been predicted for the end of the century, in the sampling region (Canary Islands). Our results indicated that the negative effects of low pH on P. lividus larval development and settlement will be mitigated by a rise in seawater temperature, up to a thermotolerance threshold. Larval development and settlement performance of the sea urchin P. lividus was enhanced by a slight increase in temperature, even under lowered pH conditions. However, the species did show negative responses to the levels of ocean warming and acidification that have been predicted for the turn of the century. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The deep ocean under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Lisa A.; Le Bris, Nadine

    2015-11-01

    The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems.

  9. Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

    2018-01-01

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

  10. COMBINED EFFECTS OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION, OCEAN WARMING AND OIL SPILL ON ASPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE INVERTEBRATES

    OpenAIRE

    Arnberg, maj

    2016-01-01

    Full version unavailable due to 3rd party copyright restrictions. For decades, humans have impacted marine ecosystems in a variety of ways including contamination by pollution, fishing, and physical destruction of habitats. Global change has, and will, lead to alterations in in a number of abiotic factors of our ocean in particular reduced oxygen saturation, salinity changes, elevated temperature (ocean warming or OW) and elevated carbon dioxide (ocean acidification or OA). Now and in the...

  11. New evidence on the sequence of deglacial warming in the tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.; Govil, P.

    . Quat. Sci., vol.25(7); 2010; 1138-1143 A New Evidence on Sequence of Deglacial Warming in the Tropical Indian Ocean P. Divakar Naidu 1 , Pawan Govil 1,2 1 National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula 403 004, Goa, India 2 National Centre... relative timing of abrupt climate warming in the tropics versus the high latitudes should be known. Therefore, the present communication is aimed to address the start of deglaciation in the Indian Ocean based on sea surface temperature (SST) derived from...

  12. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

    2016-12-01

    The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

  13. Multistressor impacts of warming and acidification of the ocean on marine invertebrates' life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Maria; Przeslawski, Rachel

    2013-10-01

    Benthic marine invertebrates live in a multistressor world where stressor levels are, and will continue to be, exacerbated by global warming and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. These changes are causing the oceans to warm, decrease in pH, become hypercapnic, and to become less saturated in carbonate minerals. These stressors have strong impacts on biological processes, but little is known about their combined effects on the development of marine invertebrates. Increasing temperature has a stimulatory effect on development, whereas hypercapnia can depress developmental processes. The pH, pCO2, and CaCO3 of seawater change simultaneously with temperature, challenging our ability to predict future outcomes for marine biota. The need to consider both warming and acidification is reflected in the recent increase in cross-factorial studies of the effects of these stressors on development of marine invertebrates. The outcomes and trends in these studies are synthesized here. Based on this compilation, significant additive or antagonistic effects of warming and acidification of the ocean are common (16 of 20 species studied), and synergistic negative effects also are reported. Fertilization can be robust to near-future warming and acidification, depending on the male-female mating pair. Although larvae and juveniles of some species tolerate near-future levels of warming and acidification (+2°C/pH 7.8), projected far-future conditions (ca. ≥4°C/ ≤pH 7.6) are widely deleterious, with a reduction in the size and survival of larvae. It appears that larvae that calcify are sensitive both to warming and acidification, whereas those that do not calcify are more sensitive to warming. Different sensitivities of life-history stages and species have implications for persistence and community function in a changing ocean. Some species are more resilient than others and may be potential "winners" in the climate-change stakes. As the ocean will change more gradually over

  14. Ocean acidification but not warming alters sex determination in the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Laura M; O'Connor, Wayne A; Byrne, Maria; Dove, Michael; Coleman, Ross A; Pörtner, Hans-O; Scanes, Elliot; Virtue, Patti; Gibbs, Mitchell; Ross, Pauline M

    2018-02-14

    Whether sex determination of marine organisms can be altered by ocean acidification and warming during this century remains a significant, unanswered question. Here, we show that exposure of the protandric hermaphrodite oyster, Saccostrea glomerata to ocean acidification, but not warming, alters sex determination resulting in changes in sex ratios. After just one reproductive cycle there were 16% more females than males. The rate of gametogenesis, gonad area, fecundity, shell length, extracellular pH and survival decreased in response to ocean acidification. Warming as a sole stressor slightly increased the rate of gametogenesis, gonad area and fecundity, but this increase was masked by the impact of ocean acidification at a level predicted for this century. Alterations to sex determination, sex ratios and reproductive capacity will have flow on effects to reduce larval supply and population size of oysters and potentially other marine organisms. © 2018 The Author(s).

  15. The deep ocean under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Lisa A; Le Bris, Nadine

    2015-11-13

    The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Linkages between ocean circulation, heat uptake and transient warming: a sensitivity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Patrik; Stocker, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Transient global warming due to greenhouse gas radiative forcing is substantially reduced by ocean heat uptake (OHU). However, the fraction of equilibrium warming that is realized in transient climate model simulations differs strongly between models (Frölicher and Paynter 2015). It has been shown that this difference is not only related to the magnitude of OHU, but also to the radiative response the OHU causes, measured by the OHU efficacy (Winton et al., 2010). This efficacy is strongly influenced by the spatial pattern of the OHU and its changes (Rose et al. 2014, Winton et al. 2013), predominantly caused by changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Even in absence of external greenhouse gas forcing, an AMOC weakening causes a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (Peltier and Vettoretti, 2014), inducing in a net warming of the Earth System. We investigate linkages between those findings by performing both freshwater and greenhouse gas experiments in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. To assess the sensitivity of the results to ocean and atmospheric transport as well as climate sensitivity, we use an ensemble of model versions, systematically varying key parameters. We analyze circulation changes and radiative adjustments in conjunction with traditional warming metrics such as the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. This aims to improve the understanding of the influence of ocean circulation and OHU on transient climate change, and of the relevance of different metrics for describing this influence. References: Frölicher, T. L. and D.J. Paynter (2015), Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 075022 Peltier, W. R., and G. Vettoretti (2014), Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A "kicked" salt oscillator in the Atlantic, Geophys. Res

  17. Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schewe

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

  18. Mechanism for the recent ocean warming events on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brickman, D.; Hebert, D.; Wang, Z.

    2018-03-01

    In 2012, 2014, and 2015 anomalous warm events were observed in the subsurface waters in the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. Monthly output from a high resolution numerical ocean model simulation of the North Atlantic ocean for the period 1990-2015 is used to investigate this phenomenon. It is found that the model shows skill in simulating the anomaly fields derived from various sources of data, and the observed warming trend over the last decade. From analysis of the model run it is found that the anomalies originate from the interaction between the Gulf Stream and the Labrador Current at the tail of the Grand Banks (south of Newfoundland). This interaction results in the creation of anomalous warm/salty (or cold/fresh) eddies that travel east-to-west along the shelfbreak. These anomalies penetrate into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, onto the Scotian Shelf, and into the Gulf of Maine via deep channels along the shelfbreak. The observed warming trend can be attributed to an increase in the frequency of creation of warm anomalies during the last decade. Strong anomalous events are commonly observed in the data and model, and thus should be considered as part of the natural variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system.

  19. Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric eGazeau

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of ocean acidification and warming on the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis, specimens were reared in aquarium tanks and exposed to elevated conditions of temperature (+3 °C and acidity (-0.3 pH units for a period of 10 months. The whole system comprised a factorial experimental design with 4 treatments (3 aquaria per treatment: control, lowered pH, elevated temperature and lowered pH/elevated temperature. Mortality was estimated on a weekly basis and every 2 months, various biometrical parameters and physiological processes were measured: somatic and shell growth, metabolic rates and body fluid acid-base parameters. Mussels were highly sensitive to warming, with 100 % mortality observed under elevated temperature at the end of our experiment in October. Mortality rates increased drastically in summer, when water temperature exceeded 25 °C. In contrast, our results suggest that survival of this species will not be affected by a pH decrease of ~0.3 in the Mediterranean Sea. Somatic and shell growth did not appear very sensitive to ocean acidification and warming during most of the experiment, but were reduced, after summer, in the lowered pH treatment. This was consistent with measured shell net dissolution and observed loss of periostracum, as well as uncompensated extracellular acidosis in the lowered pH treatment indicating a progressive insufficiency in acid-base regulation capacity. However, based on the present dataset, we cannot elucidate if these decreases in growth and regulation capacities after summer are a consequence of lower pH levels during that period or a consequence of a combined effect of acidification and warming. To summarize, while ocean acidification will potentially contribute to lower growth rates, especially in summer when mussels are exposed to sub-optimal conditions, ocean warming will likely pose more serious threats to Mediterranean mussels in this region in the coming

  20. The reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea exhibits parabolic responses to ocean acidification and warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Karl D; Ries, Justin B; Bruno, John F; Westfield, Isaac T

    2014-12-22

    Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1-0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1-4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO2 and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO2 and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate-suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species.

  1. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

    2014-07-03

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  2. Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

    2017-11-21

    Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

  3. Ocean Warming Slows Coral Growth in the Central Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Cantin, N. E.; Cohen, A. L.; Karnauskas, K. B.; Tarrant, A. M.; McCorkle, D. C.

    2010-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) across much of the tropics has increased by 0.4° to 1°C since the mid-1970s. A parallel increase in the frequency and extent of coral bleaching and mortality has fueled concern that climate change poses a major threat to the survival of coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Here we show that steadily rising SSTs, not ocean acidification, are already driving dramatic changes in the growth of an important reef-building coral in the central Red Sea. Three-dimensional computed tomography analyses of the massive coral Diploastrea heliopora reveal that skeletal growth of apparently healthy colonies has declined by 30% since 1998. The same corals responded to a short-lived warm event in 1941/1942, but recovered within 3 years as the ocean cooled. Combining our data with climate model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we predict that should the current warming trend continue, this coral could cease growing altogether by 2070.

  4. Ocean Warming Slows Coral Growth in the Central Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Cantin, N. E.

    2010-07-15

    Sea surface temperature (SST) across much of the tropics has increased by 0.4° to 1°C since the mid-1970s. A parallel increase in the frequency and extent of coral bleaching and mortality has fueled concern that climate change poses a major threat to the survival of coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Here we show that steadily rising SSTs, not ocean acidification, are already driving dramatic changes in the growth of an important reef-building coral in the central Red Sea. Three-dimensional computed tomography analyses of the massive coral Diploastrea heliopora reveal that skeletal growth of apparently healthy colonies has declined by 30% since 1998. The same corals responded to a short-lived warm event in 1941/1942, but recovered within 3 years as the ocean cooled. Combining our data with climate model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we predict that should the current warming trend continue, this coral could cease growing altogether by 2070.

  5. Response of Southern Ocean circulation to global warming may enhance basal ice shelf melting around Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, Tore; Levermann, Anders [Potsdam University, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)

    2010-10-15

    We investigate the large-scale oceanic features determining the future ice shelf-ocean interaction by analyzing global warming experiments in a coarse resolution climate model with a comprehensive ocean component. Heat and freshwater fluxes from basal ice shelf melting (ISM) are parameterized following Beckmann and Goosse [Ocean Model 5(2):157-170, 2003]. Melting sensitivities to the oceanic temperature outside of the ice shelf cavities are varied from linear to quadratic (Holland et al. in J Clim 21, 2008). In 1% per year CO{sub 2}-increase experiments the total freshwater flux from ISM triples to 0.09 Sv in the linear case and more than quadruples to 0.15 Sv in the quadratic case after 140 years at which 4 x 280 ppm = 1,120 ppm was reached. Due to the long response time of subsurface temperature anomalies, ISM thereafter increases drastically, if CO{sub 2} concentrations are kept constant at 1,120 ppm. Varying strength of the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) is crucial for ISM increase, because southward advection of heat dominates the warming along the Antarctic coast. On centennial timescales the ACC accelerates due to deep ocean warming north of the current, caused by mixing of heat along isopycnals in the Southern Ocean (SO) outcropping regions. In contrast to previous studies we find an initial weakening of the ACC during the first 150 years of warming. This purely baroclinic effect is due to a freshening in the SO which is consistent with present observations. Comparison with simulations with diagnosed ISM but without its influence on the ocean circulation reveal a number of ISM-related feedbacks, of which a negative ISM-feedback, due to the ISM-related local oceanic cooling, is the dominant one. (orig.)

  6. Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiping; Curry, Judith A

    2010-08-24

    The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models' internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.

  7. Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamdar, A. K.; Ramanathan, V.

    1994-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective

  8. Developmental and physiological challenges of octopus (Octopus vulgaris) early life stages under ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Repolho, Tiago; Baptista, Miguel; Pimentel, Marta S; Dionísio, Gisela; Trübenbach, Katja; Lopes, Vanessa M; Lopes, Ana Rita; Calado, Ricardo; Diniz, Mário; Rosa, Rui

    2014-01-01

    The ability to understand and predict the effects of ocean warming (under realistic scenarios) on marine biota is of paramount importance, especially at the most vulnerable early life stages. Here we investigated the impact of predicted environmental warming (+3 °C) on the development, metabolism, heat shock response and antioxidant defense mechanisms of the early stages of the common octopus, Octopus vulgaris. As expected, warming shortened embryonic developmental time by 13 days, from 38 days at 18 °C to 25 days at 21 °C. Concomitantly, survival decreased significantly (~29.9 %). Size at hatching varied inversely with temperature, and the percentage of smaller premature paralarvae increased drastically, from 0 % at 18 °C to 17.8 % at 21 °C. The metabolic costs of the transition from an encapsulated embryo to a free planktonic form increased significantly with warming, and HSP70 concentrations and glutathione S-transferase activity levels were significantly magnified from late embryonic to paralarval stages. Yet, despite the presence of effective antioxidant defense mechanisms, ocean warming led to an augmentation of malondialdehyde levels (an indicative of enhanced ROS action), a process considered to be one of the most frequent cellular injury mechanisms. Thus, the present study provides clues about how the magnitude and rate of ocean warming will challenge the buffering capacities of octopus embryos and hatchlings' physiology. The prediction and understanding of the biochemical and physiological responses to warmer temperatures (under realistic scenarios) is crucial for the management of highly commercial and ecologically important species, such as O. vulgaris.

  9. Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, John G.; Brewer, Peter G.; Oschlies, Andreas; Watson, Andrew J.

    2017-08-01

    Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduced oxygen levels on fisheries and ecosystems may be far-reaching and significant. At a Royal Society Discussion Meeting convened to discuss these matters, 12 oral presentations and 23 posters were presented, covering a wide range of the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the issue. Overall, it appears that there are still considerable discrepancies between the observations and model simulations of the relevant processes. Our current understanding of both the causes and consequences of reduced oxygen in the ocean, and our ability to represent them in models are therefore inadequate, and the reasons for this remain unclear. It is too early to say whether or not the socio-economic consequences are likely to be serious. However, the consequences are ecologically, biogeochemically and climatically potentially very significant, and further research on these indirect impacts of climate change via reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the oceans should be accorded a high priority. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

  10. Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, John G; Brewer, Peter G; Oschlies, Andreas; Watson, Andrew J

    2017-09-13

    Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduced oxygen levels on fisheries and ecosystems may be far-reaching and significant. At a Royal Society Discussion Meeting convened to discuss these matters, 12 oral presentations and 23 posters were presented, covering a wide range of the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the issue. Overall, it appears that there are still considerable discrepancies between the observations and model simulations of the relevant processes. Our current understanding of both the causes and consequences of reduced oxygen in the ocean, and our ability to represent them in models are therefore inadequate, and the reasons for this remain unclear. It is too early to say whether or not the socio-economic consequences are likely to be serious. However, the consequences are ecologically, biogeochemically and climatically potentially very significant, and further research on these indirect impacts of climate change via reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the oceans should be accorded a high priority.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  11. Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Copepod Abundance, Body Size and Fatty Acid Content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzke, Jessica; Hansen, Thomas; Ismar, Stefanie M H; Sommer, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Concerns about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming have initiated studies on the consequences of multiple-stressor interactions on marine organisms and ecosystems. We present a fully-crossed factorial mesocosm study and assess how warming and acidification affect the abundance, body size, and fatty acid composition of copepods as a measure of nutritional quality. The experimental set-up allowed us to determine whether the effects of warming and acidification act additively, synergistically, or antagonistically on the abundance, body size, and fatty acid content of copepods, a major group of lower level consumers in marine food webs. Copepodite (developmental stages 1-5) and nauplii abundance were antagonistically affected by warming and acidification. Higher temperature decreased copepodite and nauplii abundance, while acidification partially compensated for the temperature effect. The abundance of adult copepods was negatively affected by warming. The prosome length of copepods was significantly reduced by warming, and the interaction of warming and CO2 antagonistically affected prosome length. Fatty acid composition was also significantly affected by warming. The content of saturated fatty acids increased, and the ratios of the polyunsaturated essential fatty acids docosahexaenoic- (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA) to total fatty acid content increased with higher temperatures. Additionally, here was a significant additive interaction effect of both parameters on arachidonic acid. Our results indicate that in a future ocean scenario, acidification might partially counteract some observed effects of increased temperature on zooplankton, while adding to others. These may be results of a fertilizing effect on phytoplankton as a copepod food source. In summary, copepod populations will be more strongly affected by warming rather than by acidifying oceans, but ocean acidification effects can modify some temperature impacts.

  12. Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-09

    USA, 2Naval Research Laboratory, Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Branch, Stennis Space Center, Hancock County, Mississippi, USA, 3Department of Physics ...IO and predominantly located south of the equator. The intraseasonal currents associated with downwelling ER waves act on the temperature gradient to...yield warm anomalies in the western IO, even in the presence of cooling by surface fluxes. The SST gradient is unique to the western IO and likely

  13. Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Copepod Abundance, Body Size and Fatty Acid Content.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Garzke

    Full Text Available Concerns about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming have initiated studies on the consequences of multiple-stressor interactions on marine organisms and ecosystems. We present a fully-crossed factorial mesocosm study and assess how warming and acidification affect the abundance, body size, and fatty acid composition of copepods as a measure of nutritional quality. The experimental set-up allowed us to determine whether the effects of warming and acidification act additively, synergistically, or antagonistically on the abundance, body size, and fatty acid content of copepods, a major group of lower level consumers in marine food webs. Copepodite (developmental stages 1-5 and nauplii abundance were antagonistically affected by warming and acidification. Higher temperature decreased copepodite and nauplii abundance, while acidification partially compensated for the temperature effect. The abundance of adult copepods was negatively affected by warming. The prosome length of copepods was significantly reduced by warming, and the interaction of warming and CO2 antagonistically affected prosome length. Fatty acid composition was also significantly affected by warming. The content of saturated fatty acids increased, and the ratios of the polyunsaturated essential fatty acids docosahexaenoic- (DHA and arachidonic acid (ARA to total fatty acid content increased with higher temperatures. Additionally, here was a significant additive interaction effect of both parameters on arachidonic acid. Our results indicate that in a future ocean scenario, acidification might partially counteract some observed effects of increased temperature on zooplankton, while adding to others. These may be results of a fertilizing effect on phytoplankton as a copepod food source. In summary, copepod populations will be more strongly affected by warming rather than by acidifying oceans, but ocean acidification effects can modify some temperature impacts.

  14. Fish energy budget under ocean warming and flame retardant exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anacleto, Patrícia; Figueiredo, Cátia; Baptista, Miguel; Maulvault, Ana Luísa; Camacho, Carolina; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Valente, Luísa M P; Marques, António; Rosa, Rui

    2018-07-01

    Climate change and chemical contamination are global environmental threats of growing concern for the scientific community and regulatory authorities. Yet, the impacts and interactions of both stressors (particularly ocean warming and emerging chemical contaminants) on physiological responses of marine organisms remain unclear and still require further understanding. Within this context, the main goal of this study was to assess, for the first time, the effects of warming (+ 5 °C) and accumulation of a polybrominated diphenyl ether congener (BDE-209, brominated flame retardant) through dietary exposure on energy budget of the juvenile white seabream (Diplodus sargus). Specifically, growth (G), routine metabolism (R), excretion (faecal, F and nitrogenous losses, U) and food consumption (C) were calculated to obtain the energy budget. The results demonstrated that the energy proportion spent for G dominated the mode of the energy allocation of juvenile white seabream (56.0-67.8%), especially under the combined effect of warming plus BDE-209 exposure. Under all treatments, the energy channelled for R varied around 26% and a much smaller percentage was channelled for excretion (F: 4.3-16.0% and U: 2.3-3.3%). An opposite trend to G was observed to F, where the highest percentage (16.0 ± 0.9%) was found under control temperature and BDE-209 exposure via diet. In general, the parameters were significantly affected by increased temperature and flame retardant exposure, where higher levels occurred for: i) wet weight, relative growth rate, protein and ash contents under warming conditions, ii) only for O:N ratio under BDE-209 exposure via diet, and iii) for feed efficiency, ammonia excretion rate, routine metabolic rate and assimilation efficiency under the combination of both stressors. On the other hand, decreased viscerosomatic index was observed under warming and lower fat content was observed under the combined effect of both stressors. Overall, under future

  15. A century of ocean warming on Florida Keys coral reefs: historic in situ observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Lidz, Barbara H.; Hudson, J. Harold; Anderson, Jeffery S.

    2015-01-01

    There is strong evidence that global climate change over the last several decades has caused shifts in species distributions, species extinctions, and alterations in the functioning of ecosystems. However, because of high variability on short (i.e., diurnal, seasonal, and annual) timescales as well as the recency of a comprehensive instrumental record, it is difficult to detect or provide evidence for long-term, site-specific trends in ocean temperature. Here we analyze five in situ datasets from Florida Keys coral reef habitats, including historic measurements taken by lighthouse keepers, to provide three independent lines of evidence supporting approximately 0.8 °C of warming in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last century. Results indicate that the warming observed in the records between 1878 and 2012 can be fully accounted for by the warming observed in recent decades (from 1975 to 2007), documented using in situ thermographs on a mid-shore patch reef. The magnitude of warming revealed here is similar to that found in other SST datasets from the region and to that observed in global mean surface temperature. The geologic context and significance of recent ocean warming to coral growth and population dynamics are discussed, as is the future prognosis for the Florida reef tract.

  16. 77 FR 20774 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Threatened Status for Distinct Population Segments of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 50 CFR Part 223 RIN 0648-XZ58 Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Threatened Status for Distinct Population Segments of the Bearded Seal AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric...

  17. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND WARMING ON THE MORTALITY AND DISSOLUTION OF CORALLINE ALGAE(1).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Kline, David I; Dove, Sophie; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2012-02-01

    Coralline algae are among the most sensitive calcifying organisms to ocean acidification as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 ). Little is known, however, about the combined impacts of increased pCO2 , ocean acidification, and sea surface temperature on tissue mortality and skeletal dissolution of coralline algae. To address this issue, we conducted factorial manipulative experiments of elevated CO2 and temperature and examined the consequences on tissue survival and skeletal dissolution of the crustose coralline alga (CCA) Porolithon (=Hydrolithon) onkodes (Heydr.) Foslie (Corallinaceae, Rhodophyta) on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. We observed that warming amplified the negative effects of high pCO2 on the health of the algae: rates of advanced partial mortality of CCA increased from warming conditions (from 26°C to 29°C). Furthermore, the effect of pCO2 on skeletal dissolution strongly depended on temperature. Dissolution of P. onkodes only occurred in the high-pCO2 treatment and was greater in the warm treatment. Enhanced skeletal dissolution was also associated with a significant increase in the abundance of endolithic algae. Our results demonstrate that P. onkodes is particularly sensitive to ocean acidification under warm conditions, suggesting that previous experiments focused on ocean acidification alone have underestimated the impact of future conditions on coralline algae. Given the central role that coralline algae play within coral reefs, these conclusions have serious ramifications for the integrity of coral-reef ecosystems. © 2011 Phycological Society of America.

  18. Nickel and ocean warming affect scleractinian coral growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biscéré, T; Lorrain, A; Rodolfo-Metalpa, R; Gilbert, A; Wright, A; Devissi, C; Peignon, C; Farman, R; Duvieilbourg, E; Payri, C; Houlbrèque, F

    2017-07-15

    The sensitivity of corals and their Symbiodinium to warming has been extensively documented; however very few studies considered that anthropogenic inputs such as metal pollution have already an impact on many fringing reefs. Thus, today, nickel releases are common in coastal ecosystems. In this study, two major reef-building species Acropora muricata and Pocillopora damicornis were exposed in situ to ambient and moderate nickel concentrations on a short-term period (1h) using benthic chamber experiments. Simultaneously, we tested in laboratory conditions the combined effects of a chronic exposure (8weeks) to moderate nickel concentrations and ocean warming on A. muricata. The in situ experiment highlighted that nickel enrichment, at ambient temperature, stimulated by 27 to 47% the calcification rates of both species but not their photosynthetic performances. In contrast, an exposure to higher nickel concentration, in combination with elevated temperature simulated in aquaria, severely depressed by 30% the growth of A. muricata. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Coral physiology and microbiome dynamics under combined warming and ocean acidification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréa G Grottoli

    Full Text Available Rising seawater temperature and ocean acidification threaten the survival of coral reefs. The relationship between coral physiology and its microbiome may reveal why some corals are more resilient to these global change conditions. Here, we conducted the first experiment to simultaneously investigate changes in the coral microbiome and coral physiology in response to the dual stress of elevated seawater temperature and ocean acidification expected by the end of this century. Two species of corals, Acropora millepora containing the thermally sensitive endosymbiont C21a and Turbinaria reniformis containing the thermally tolerant endosymbiont Symbiodinium trenchi, were exposed to control (26.5°C and pCO2 of 364 μatm and treatment (29.0°C and pCO2 of 750 μatm conditions for 24 days, after which we measured the microbial community composition. These microbial findings were interpreted within the context of previously published physiological measurements from the exact same corals in this study (calcification, organic carbon flux, ratio of photosynthesis to respiration, photosystem II maximal efficiency, total lipids, soluble animal protein, soluble animal carbohydrates, soluble algal protein, soluble algal carbohydrate, biomass, endosymbiotic algal density, and chlorophyll a. Overall, dually stressed A. millepora had reduced microbial diversity, experienced large changes in microbial community composition, and experienced dramatic physiological declines in calcification, photosystem II maximal efficiency, and algal carbohydrates. In contrast, the dually stressed coral T. reniformis experienced a stable and more diverse microbiome community with minimal physiological decline, coupled with very high total energy reserves and particulate organic carbon release rates. Thus, the microbiome changed and microbial diversity decreased in the physiologically sensitive coral with the thermally sensitive endosymbiotic algae but not in the physiologically

  20. Coral physiology and microbiome dynamics under combined warming and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grottoli, Andréa G; Dalcin Martins, Paula; Wilkins, Michael J; Johnston, Michael D; Warner, Mark E; Cai, Wei-Jun; Melman, Todd F; Hoadley, Kenneth D; Pettay, D Tye; Levas, Stephen; Schoepf, Verena

    2018-01-01

    Rising seawater temperature and ocean acidification threaten the survival of coral reefs. The relationship between coral physiology and its microbiome may reveal why some corals are more resilient to these global change conditions. Here, we conducted the first experiment to simultaneously investigate changes in the coral microbiome and coral physiology in response to the dual stress of elevated seawater temperature and ocean acidification expected by the end of this century. Two species of corals, Acropora millepora containing the thermally sensitive endosymbiont C21a and Turbinaria reniformis containing the thermally tolerant endosymbiont Symbiodinium trenchi, were exposed to control (26.5°C and pCO2 of 364 μatm) and treatment (29.0°C and pCO2 of 750 μatm) conditions for 24 days, after which we measured the microbial community composition. These microbial findings were interpreted within the context of previously published physiological measurements from the exact same corals in this study (calcification, organic carbon flux, ratio of photosynthesis to respiration, photosystem II maximal efficiency, total lipids, soluble animal protein, soluble animal carbohydrates, soluble algal protein, soluble algal carbohydrate, biomass, endosymbiotic algal density, and chlorophyll a). Overall, dually stressed A. millepora had reduced microbial diversity, experienced large changes in microbial community composition, and experienced dramatic physiological declines in calcification, photosystem II maximal efficiency, and algal carbohydrates. In contrast, the dually stressed coral T. reniformis experienced a stable and more diverse microbiome community with minimal physiological decline, coupled with very high total energy reserves and particulate organic carbon release rates. Thus, the microbiome changed and microbial diversity decreased in the physiologically sensitive coral with the thermally sensitive endosymbiotic algae but not in the physiologically tolerant coral with

  1. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  2. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-05-12

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

  3. Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Emily M; Townsend, Howard M; Anderson, David J

    2017-01-01

    Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

  4. Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily M Tompkins

    Full Text Available Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

  5. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-11-16

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

  6. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  7. Ocean Depths: The Mesopelagic and Implications for Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Mark J; Breyer, Sean

    2017-01-09

    The mesopelagic or 'twilight zone' of the oceans occurs too deep for photosynthesis, but is a major part of the world's carbon cycle. Depth boundaries for the mesopelagic have now been shown on a global scale using the distribution of pelagic animals detected by compiling echo-soundings from ships around the world, and been used to predict the effect of global warming on regional fish production. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

    2017-12-01

    An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

  9. Moderate ocean warming mitigates, but more extreme warming exacerbates the impacts of zinc from engineered nanoparticles on a marine larva.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mos, Benjamin; Kaposi, Katrina L; Rose, Andrew L; Kelaher, Brendan; Dworjanyn, Symon A

    2017-09-01

    There is growing concern about the combined effects of multiple human-induced stressors on biodiversity. In particular, there are substantial knowledge gaps about the combined effects of existing stressors (e.g. pollution) and predicted environmental stress from climate change (e.g. ocean warming). We investigated the impacts of ocean warming and engineered nanoparticles (nano-zinc oxide, nZnO) on larvae of a cosmopolitan tropical sea urchin, Tripneustes gratilla. Larval T. gratilla were exposed to all combinations of three temperatures, 25, 27 and 29 °C (current SST and near-future predicted warming of +2 and + 4 °C) and six concentrations of nZnO (0, 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1 and 10 mg nZnO·L -1 ). These stressors had strong interactive effects on fertilization, gastrulation and normal development of 5 day old larvae. High concentrations of nZnO had a negative effect, but this impact was less pronounced for sea urchins reared at their preferred temperature of 27 °C compared to 25 or 29 °C. Larval growth was also impacted by combined stress of elevated temperature and nZnO. Subsequent measurement of the dissolution and aggregation of nZnO particles and the direct effect of Zn 2+ ions on larvae, suggest the negative effects of nZnO on larval development and growth were most likely due to Zn 2+ ions. Our results demonstrate that marine larvae may be more resilient to stressors at optimal temperatures and highlight the potential for ocean warming to exacerbate the effects of pollution on marine larvae. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

    2004-01-01

    In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

  11. Warm ocean processes and carbon cycling in the Eocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, Eleanor H; Pearson, Paul N; Coxall, Helen K; Birch, Heather; Wade, Bridget S; Foster, Gavin L

    2013-10-28

    Sea surface and subsurface temperatures over large parts of the ocean during the Eocene epoch (55.5-33.7 Ma) exceeded modern values by several degrees, which must have affected a number of oceanic processes. Here, we focus on the effect of elevated water column temperatures on the efficiency of the biological pump, particularly in relation to carbon and nutrient cycling. We use stable isotope values from exceptionally well-preserved planktonic foraminiferal calcite from Tanzania and Mexico to reconstruct vertical carbon isotope gradients in the upper water column, exploiting the fact that individual species lived and calcified at different depths. The oxygen isotope ratios of different species' tests are used to estimate the temperature of calcification, which we converted to absolute depths using Eocene temperature profiles generated by general circulation models. This approach, along with potential pitfalls, is illustrated using data from modern core-top assemblages from the same area. Our results indicate that, during the Early and Middle Eocene, carbon isotope gradients were steeper (and larger) through the upper thermocline than in the modern ocean. This is consistent with a shallower average depth of organic matter remineralization and supports previously proposed hypotheses that invoke high metabolic rates in a warm Eocene ocean, leading to more efficient recycling of organic matter and reduced burial rates of organic carbon.

  12. Trichodesmium blooms and warm-core ocean surface features in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jyothibabu, R; Karnan, C; Jagadeesan, L; Arunpandi, N; Pandiarajan, R S; Muraleedharan, K R; Balachandran, K K

    2017-08-15

    Trichodesmium is a bloom-forming, diazotrophic, non-heterocystous cyanobacteria widely distributed in the warmer oceans, and their bloom is considered a 'biological indication' of stratification and nitrogen limitation in the ocean surface layer. In the first part of this paper, based on the retrospective analyses of the ocean surface mesoscale features associated with 59 Trichodesmium bloom incidences recorded in the past, 32 from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and 27 from the rest of the world, we have showed that warm-core features have an inducing effect on bloom formation. In the second part, we have considered the environmental preferences of Trichodesmium bloom based on laboratory and field studies across the globe, and proposed a view about how warm-core features could provide an inducing pre-requisite condition for the bloom formation in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Proposed that the subsurface waters of warm-core features maintain more likely chances for the conducive nutrient and light conditions required for the triggering of the blooms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Fukai; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Wan, Xiuquan

    2016-04-15

    Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: 1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared with El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; 2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; 3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and 4) the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different.

  14. The Effect of Warming Oceans at a Tide Gauge Station

    OpenAIRE

    Bâki Iz H.

    2016-01-01

    This study proposes a new paradigm for assessing thermosteric effects of warming oceans at a tide gauge station. For demonstration, the trend due to the global thermosteric sea level at the Key West, FL tide gauge station was estimated using the tide gauge measurements and the global sea surface temperature anomalies that were represented by yearly distributed lags. A comparison of the estimate with the trend estimate from a descriptive model revealed that 0.7±0.1 mm/y...

  15. Thermal Thresholds of Phytoplankton Growth in Polar Waters and Their Consequences for a Warming Polar Ocean

    KAUST Repository

    Coello-Camba, Alexandra

    2017-06-02

    Polar areas are experiencing the steepest warming rates on Earth, a trend expected to continue in the future. In these habitats, phytoplankton communities constitute the basis of the food web and their thermal tolerance may dictate how warming affects these delicate environments. Here, we compiled available data on thermal responses of phytoplankton growth in polar waters. We assembled 53 growth-vs.-temperature curves (25 from the Arctic, 28 from the Southern oceans), indicating the limited information available for these ecosystems. Half of the data from Arctic phytoplankton came from natural communities where low ambient concentrations could limit growth rates. Phytoplankton from polar waters grew faster under small temperature increases until reaching an optimum (TOPT), and slowed when temperatures increased beyond this value. This left-skewed curves were characterized by higher activation energies (Ea) for phytoplankton growth above than below the TOPT. Combining these thermal responses we obtained a community TOPT of 6.5°C (±0.2) and 5.2°C (±0.1) for Arctic and Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, respectively. These threshold temperatures were already exceeded at 70°N during the first half of August 2013, evidenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs, satellite data, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). We forecasted SSTs for the end of the twenty-first century by assuming an overall 3°C increase, equivalent to a low emission scenario. Our forecasts show that SSTs at 70°N are expected to exceed TOPT during summer by 2100, and during the first half of August at 75°N. While recent Arctic spring temperatures average 0.5°C and −0.7°C at 70°N and 75°N, respectively, they could increase to 2.8°C at 70°N and 2.2°C at 75°N as we approach 2100. Such temperature increases could lead to intense phytoplankton blooms, shortened by fast nutrient consumption. As SSTs increase, thermal thresholds for phytoplankton growth would be eventually exceeded during bloom

  16. Thermal Thresholds of Phytoplankton Growth in Polar Waters and Their Consequences for a Warming Polar Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Coello-Camba

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Polar areas are experiencing the steepest warming rates on Earth, a trend expected to continue in the future. In these habitats, phytoplankton communities constitute the basis of the food web and their thermal tolerance may dictate how warming affects these delicate environments. Here, we compiled available data on thermal responses of phytoplankton growth in polar waters. We assembled 53 growth-vs.-temperature curves (25 from the Arctic, 28 from the Southern oceans, indicating the limited information available for these ecosystems. Half of the data from Arctic phytoplankton came from natural communities where low ambient concentrations could limit growth rates. Phytoplankton from polar waters grew faster under small temperature increases until reaching an optimum (TOPT, and slowed when temperatures increased beyond this value. This left-skewed curves were characterized by higher activation energies (Ea for phytoplankton growth above than below the TOPT. Combining these thermal responses we obtained a community TOPT of 6.5°C (±0.2 and 5.2°C (±0.1 for Arctic and Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, respectively. These threshold temperatures were already exceeded at 70°N during the first half of August 2013, evidenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs, satellite data, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov. We forecasted SSTs for the end of the twenty-first century by assuming an overall 3°C increase, equivalent to a low emission scenario. Our forecasts show that SSTs at 70°N are expected to exceed TOPT during summer by 2100, and during the first half of August at 75°N. While recent Arctic spring temperatures average 0.5°C and −0.7°C at 70°N and 75°N, respectively, they could increase to 2.8°C at 70°N and 2.2°C at 75°N as we approach 2100. Such temperature increases could lead to intense phytoplankton blooms, shortened by fast nutrient consumption. As SSTs increase, thermal thresholds for phytoplankton growth would be eventually exceeded

  17. Thermal Thresholds of Phytoplankton Growth in Polar Waters and Their Consequences for a Warming Polar Ocean

    KAUST Repository

    Coello-Camba, Alexandra; Agusti, Susana

    2017-01-01

    Polar areas are experiencing the steepest warming rates on Earth, a trend expected to continue in the future. In these habitats, phytoplankton communities constitute the basis of the food web and their thermal tolerance may dictate how warming affects these delicate environments. Here, we compiled available data on thermal responses of phytoplankton growth in polar waters. We assembled 53 growth-vs.-temperature curves (25 from the Arctic, 28 from the Southern oceans), indicating the limited information available for these ecosystems. Half of the data from Arctic phytoplankton came from natural communities where low ambient concentrations could limit growth rates. Phytoplankton from polar waters grew faster under small temperature increases until reaching an optimum (TOPT), and slowed when temperatures increased beyond this value. This left-skewed curves were characterized by higher activation energies (Ea) for phytoplankton growth above than below the TOPT. Combining these thermal responses we obtained a community TOPT of 6.5°C (±0.2) and 5.2°C (±0.1) for Arctic and Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, respectively. These threshold temperatures were already exceeded at 70°N during the first half of August 2013, evidenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs, satellite data, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). We forecasted SSTs for the end of the twenty-first century by assuming an overall 3°C increase, equivalent to a low emission scenario. Our forecasts show that SSTs at 70°N are expected to exceed TOPT during summer by 2100, and during the first half of August at 75°N. While recent Arctic spring temperatures average 0.5°C and −0.7°C at 70°N and 75°N, respectively, they could increase to 2.8°C at 70°N and 2.2°C at 75°N as we approach 2100. Such temperature increases could lead to intense phytoplankton blooms, shortened by fast nutrient consumption. As SSTs increase, thermal thresholds for phytoplankton growth would be eventually exceeded during bloom

  18. Thermosteric contribution of warming oceans to the global sea level variations

    OpenAIRE

    Bâki Iz H.

    2016-01-01

    Thermosteric contribution of warming oceans to the global sea level variations during the last century was evaluated at globally distributed 27 tide gauge stations with records over 80 years. The assessment was made using a recently proposed lagged model inclusive of a sea level trend, long and decadal periodicities, and lagged sea surface temperature measurements. The new model solutions revealed that almost all the long period periodic sea level changes experienced a...

  19. Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoerling, M.P.; Xu, T.; Bates, G.T. [Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA, Boulder, CO 80305-3328 (United States); Hurrell, J.W.; Phillips, A.S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2004-09-01

    Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden ''switch-on'' of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts. (orig.)

  20. North Pacific deglacial hypoxic events linked to abrupt ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praetorius, Summer K; Mix, Alan C.; Davies, Maureen H.; Wolhowe, Matthew D; Addison, Jason A.; Prahl, Frederick G

    2015-01-01

    Marine sediments from the North Pacific document two episodes of expansion and strengthening of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) accompanied by seafloor hypoxia during the last deglacial transition1, 2, 3, 4. The mechanisms driving this hypoxia remain under debate1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. We present a new high-resolution alkenone palaeotemperature reconstruction from the Gulf of Alaska that reveals two abrupt warming events of 4–5 degrees Celsius at the onset of the Bølling and Holocene intervals that coincide with sudden shifts to hypoxia at intermediate depths. The presence of diatomaceous laminations and hypoxia-tolerant benthic foraminiferal species, peaks in redox-sensitive trace metals12, 13, and enhanced 15N/14N ratio of organic matter13, collectively suggest association with high export production. A decrease in 18O/16O values of benthic foraminifera accompanying the most severe deoxygenation event indicates subsurface warming of up to about 2 degrees Celsius. We infer that abrupt warming triggered expansion of the North Pacific OMZ through reduced oxygen solubility and increased marine productivity via physiological effects; following initiation of hypoxia, remobilization of iron from hypoxic sediments could have provided a positive feedback on ocean deoxygenation through increased nutrient utilization and carbon export. Such a biogeochemical amplification process implies high sensitivity of OMZ expansion to warming.

  1. The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1996-10-01

    This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic change from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.

  2. Adapt, move or die - how will tropical coral reef fishes cope with ocean warming?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habary, Adam; Johansen, Jacob L.; Nay, Tiffany J.

    2017-01-01

    poleward, away from ocean warming hotspots where temperatures 2-3 °C above long-term annual means can compromise critical physiological processes. We examined the capacity of a model species - a thermally sensitive coral reef fish, Chromis viridis (Pomacentridae) - to use preference behaviour to regulate...

  3. The role of meltwater-induced subsurface ocean warming in regulating the Atlantic meridional overturning in glacial climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brady, Esther C.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-10-15

    The Community Climate System Model version 3, (CCSM3) is used to investigate the effect of the high latitude North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature response in idealized freshwater hosing experiments on the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The hosing experiments covered a range of input magnitudes at two locations in a glacial background state. Subsurface subpolar ocean warms when freshwater is added to the high latitude North Atlantic (NATL cases) and weakly cools when freshwater is added to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM cases). All cases show subsurface ocean warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The sensitivity of the AMOC response to the location and magnitude of hosing is related to the induced subsurface temperature response, which affects the magnitude of the large-scale meridional pressure gradient at depth through the effect on upper ocean density. The high latitude subsurface warming induced in the NATL cases lowers the upper ocean density in the deepwater formation region enhancing a density reduction by local freshening. In the GOM cases the effect of SH warming partially offsets the effect of the high latitude freshening on the meridional density gradient. Following the end of hosing, a brief convective event occurs in the largest NATL cases which flushes some of the heat stored in the subsurface layers. This fuels a rapid rise in AMOC that lasts less than a couple of decades before subsequent freshening from increases in precipitation and sea ice melt reverses the initial increase in the meridional density gradient. Thereafter AMOC recovery slows to the rate found in comparable GOM cases. The result for these glacial transient hosing experiments is that the pace of the longer recovery is not sensitive to location of the imposed freshwater forcing. (orig.)

  4. From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Byfield, Valborg; Cochrane, Kevern; Coward, Andrew C; Salim, Shyam S; Gasalla, Maria A; Henson, Stephanie A; Hobday, Alistair J; Pecl, Gretta T; Sauer, Warwick H; Roberts, Michael J

    2016-06-01

    Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future

  5. Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator-prey interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selden, Rebecca L; Batt, Ryan D; Saba, Vincent S; Pinsky, Malin L

    2018-01-01

    Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator-prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968-2014) and with a doubling in CO 2 . Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator-prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species' range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. The atmospheric wet pool: definition and comparison with the oceanic warm pool

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Caiyun; CHEN Ge

    2008-01-01

    The oceanic warm pool (OWP) defined by sea surface temperature (SST) is known as the "heat reservoir" in the ocean. The warmest portion in the ocean mirrors the fact that the wettest region with the largest accumulation of water vapor (WV) in the atmosphere, termed atmospheric wet pool (AWP), should be identified because of the well-known Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between SST and WV. In this study, we used 14-year simultaneous observations of WV and SST from January 1988 to December 2001 to define the AWP and investigate its coupling and co-variations with the OWP. The joint examination of the area variations, centroid locations, and zonal migrations of the AWP and OWP lead to a number of interesting findings. The results hopefully can contribute to our understanding of the air-sea interaction in general and characterization of El Nifio/La Nina events in particular.

  7. The reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea exhibits parabolic responses to ocean acidification and warming

    OpenAIRE

    Castillo, Karl D.; Ries, Justin B.; Bruno, John F.; Westfield, Isaac T.

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1–0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1–4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-...

  8. Mass coral mortality under local amplification of 2 °C ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decarlo, Thomas M.; Cohen, Anne L.; Wong, George T. F.; Davis, Kristen A.; Lohmann, Pat; Soong, Keryea

    2017-03-01

    A 2 °C increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is considered a reasonable target for avoiding the most devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. In June 2015, sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea (SCS) increased by 2 °C in response to the developing Pacific El Niño. On its own, this moderate, short-lived warming was unlikely to cause widespread damage to coral reefs in the region, and the coral reef “Bleaching Alert” alarm was not raised. However, on Dongsha Atoll, in the northern SCS, unusually weak winds created low-flow conditions that amplified the 2 °C basin-scale anomaly. Water temperatures on the reef flat, normally indistinguishable from open-ocean SST, exceeded 6 °C above normal summertime levels. Mass coral bleaching quickly ensued, killing 40% of the resident coral community in an event unprecedented in at least the past 40 years. Our findings highlight the risks of 2 °C ocean warming to coral reef ecosystems when global and local processes align to drive intense heating, with devastating consequences.

  9. Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song

    2018-05-01

    The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

  10. The role of the SST-thermocline relationship in Indian Ocean Dipole skewness and its response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tends to have stronger cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the eastern Indian Ocean with greater impacts than warm SSTAs that occur during its negative phase. Two feedbacks have been suggested as the cause of positive IOD skewness, a positive Bjerknes feedback and a negative SST-cloud-radiation (SCR) feedback, but their relative importance is debated. Using inter-model statistics, we show that the most important process for IOD skewness is an asymmetry in the thermocline feedback, whereby SSTAs respond to thermocline depth anomalies more strongly during the positive phase than negative phase. This asymmetric thermocline feedback drives IOD skewness despite positive IODs receiving greater damping from the SCR feedback. In response to global warming, although the thermocline feedback strengthens, its asymmetry between positive and negative IODs weakens. This behaviour change explains the reduction in IOD skewness that many models display under global warming. PMID:25112717

  11. Differential impacts of ocean acidification and warming on winter and summer progeny of a coastal squid (Loligo vulgaris).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago

    2014-02-15

    Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and warming. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above winter and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer warming (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, Pocean acidification and summer warming scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such conditions is expected to negatively affect the survival success of squid early life stages during the summer spawning period, but not winter spawning.

  12. The simulated response of dimethylsulfide production in the Arctic Ocean to global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabric, Albert J.; Qu, Bo; Hirst, Anthony C.

    2005-01-01

    Sulfate aerosols (of both biogenic and anthropogenic origin) play a key role in the Earth's radiation balance both directly through scattering and absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation, and indirectly by modifying cloud microphysical properties. However, the uncertainties associated with radiative forcing of climate due to aerosols substantially exceed those associated with the greenhouse gases. The major source of sulfate aerosols in the remote marine atmosphere is the biogenic compound dimethylsulfide (DMS), which is ubiquitous in the world's oceans and is synthesized by plankton. Climate models point to significant future changes in sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean due to warming. This will have consequences for primary production and the sea-to-air flux of a number of biogenic compounds, including DMS. In this paper we discuss the impact of warming on the future production of DMS in the Arctic Ocean. A DMS production model has been calibrated to current climate conditions with satellite ocean colour data (SeaWiFS) using a genetic algorithm, an efficient non-derivative based optimization technique. We use the CSIRO Mk 2 climate model to force the DMS model under enhanced greenhouse climate conditions. We discuss the simulated change in DMS flux and its consequences for future aerosol production and the radiative budget of the Arctic. Significant decreases in sea-ice cover (by 18.5% annually and 61% in summer-autumn), increases in mean annual sea surface temperature of 1 deg C, and a decrease of mixed layer depth by 13% annually are predicted to result in annual DMS flux increases of over 80% by the time of equivalent CO 2 tripling (2080). Estimates of the impact of this increase in DMS emissions suggest significant changes to summer aerosol concentrations and the radiative balance in the Arctic region

  13. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

    2013-12-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral

  14. Effect of ocean warming and acidification on a plankton community in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maugendre, L.; Gattuso, J.-P.; Louis, J.; de Kluijver, A.; Marro, S.; Soetaert, K.; Gazeau, F.

    2015-01-01

    The effect of ocean warming and acidification was investigated on a natural plankton assemblage from an oligotrophic area, the bay of Villefranche (NW Mediterranean Sea). The assemblage was sampled in March 2012 and exposed to the following four treatments for 12 days: control (~360 µatm, 14°C),

  15. Algal subsidies enhance invertebrate prey for threatened shorebirds: A novel conservation tool on ocean beaches?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlacher, Thomas A.; Hutton, Briony M.; Gilby, Ben L.; Porch, Nicholaus; Maguire, Grainne S.; Maslo, Brooke; Connolly, Rod M.; Olds, Andrew D.; Weston, Michael A.

    2017-05-01

    Birds breeding on ocean beaches are threatened globally, often requiring significant investments in species conservation and habitat management. Conservation actions typically encompass spatial and temporal threat reductions and protection of eggs and broods. Still, populations decline or recover only slowly, calling for fresh approaches in beach-bird conservation. Because energetic demands are critically high during the nesting and chick rearing phases, and chick survival is particularly low, supplementing prey to breeding birds and their offspring is theoretically attractive as a means to complement more traditional conservation measures. Prey for plovers and similar species on ocean beaches consists of invertebrates (e.g. small crustaceans, insects) many of which feed on stranded masses of plant material (e.g. kelp and seagrass) and use this 'wrack' as habitat. We added wrack to the upper beach where plovers nest and their chicks forage to test whether algal subsidies promote the abundance and diversity of their invertebrate prey. Adding wrack to the upper beach significantly increased the abundance and diversity of invertebrate prey items. At wrack subsidies greater than 50% of surface cover invertebrate assemblages became highly distinct compared with those that received smaller additions of wrack. Substantial (2-4 fold) increases in the abundance amphipods and isopods that are principal prey items for plovers drove these shifts. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates the feasibility of food provisioning for birds on ocean shores. Whilst novel, it is practicable, inexpensive and does not introduce further restrictions or man-made structures. Thus, it can meaningfully add to the broader arsenal of conservation tools for threatened species that are wholly reliant on sandy beaches as breeding and foraging habitats.

  16. Can trans-generational experiments be used to enhance species resilience to ocean warming and acidification?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarti, Leela J; Jarrold, Michael D; Gibbin, Emma M; Christen, Felix; Massamba-N'Siala, Gloria; Blier, Pierre U; Calosi, Piero

    2016-10-01

    Human-assisted, trans-generational exposure to ocean warming and acidification has been proposed as a conservation and/or restoration tool to produce resilient offspring. To improve our understanding of the need for and the efficacy of this approach, we characterized life-history and physiological responses in offspring of the marine polychaete Ophryotrocha labronica exposed to predicted ocean warming (OW: + 3°C), ocean acidification (OA: pH -0.5) and their combination (OWA: + 3°C, pH -0.5), following the exposure of their parents to either control conditions ( within-generational exposure ) or the same conditions ( trans-generational exposure ). Trans-generational exposure to OW fully alleviated the negative effects of within-generational exposure to OW on fecundity and egg volume and was accompanied by increased metabolic activity. While within-generational exposure to OA reduced juvenile growth rates and egg volume, trans-generational exposure alleviated the former but could not restore the latter. Surprisingly, exposure to OWA had no negative impacts within- or trans-generationally. Our results highlight the potential for trans-generational laboratory experiments in producing offspring that are resilient to OW and OA. However, trans-generational exposure does not always appear to improve traits and therefore may not be a universally useful tool for all species in the face of global change.

  17. Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Fürst

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000–2010, both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice discharge from calving glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 to global sea-level rise, with a relative contribution of 60 and 40% respectively. Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, spun up to present day, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these projections, the flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the marine margins. For a suite of 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios, the projected sea-level rise between 2000 and 2100 lies in the range of +1.4 to +16.6 cm. For two low emission scenarios, the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found to abate for the most favourable scenario where the warming peaks in this century, allowing the ice sheet to maintain a geometry close to the present-day state. For the other moderate scenario, loss rates remain at a constant level over 300 years. In any scenario, volume loss is predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin, reducing the ice–ocean contact area. As confirmed by other studies, we find that the effect of enhanced basal lubrication on the volume evolution is negligible on centennial timescales. Our projections show that the observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. Our results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change

  18. Non-additive effects of ocean acidification in combination with warming on the larval proteome of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harney, Ewan; Artigaud, Sébastien; Le Souchu, Pierrick; Miner, Philippe; Corporeau, Charlotte; Essid, Hafida; Pichereau, Vianney; Nunes, Flavia L D

    2016-03-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide results in ocean acidification and warming, significantly impacting marine invertebrate larvae development. We investigated how ocean acidification in combination with warming affected D-veliger larvae of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Larvae were reared for 40h under either control (pH8.1, 20 °C), acidified (pH7.9, 20 °C), warm (pH8.1, 22 °C) or warm acidified (pH7.9, 22 °C) conditions. Larvae in acidified conditions were significantly smaller than in the control, but warm acidified conditions mitigated negative effects on size, and increased calcification. A proteomic approach employing two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE) was used to quantify proteins and relate their abundance to phenotypic traits. In total 12 differentially abundant spots were identified by nano-liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. These proteins had roles in metabolism, intra- and extra-cellular matrix formations, stress response, and as molecular chaperones. Seven spots responded to reduced pH, four to increased temperature, and six to acidification and warming. Reduced abundance of proteins such as ATP synthase and GAPDH, and increased abundance of superoxide dismutase, occurred when both pH and temperature changes were imposed, suggesting altered metabolism and enhanced oxidative stress. These results identify key proteins that may be involved in the acclimation of C. gigas larvae to ocean acidification and warming. Increasing atmospheric CO2 raises sea surface temperatures and results in ocean acidification, two climatic variables known to impact marine organisms. Larvae of calcifying species may be particularly at risk to such changing environmental conditions. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas is ecologically and commercially important, and understanding its ability to acclimate to climate change will help to predict how aquaculture of this species is likely to be impacted. Modest, yet realistic changes in pH and

  19. Decomposing the effects of ocean warming on chlorophyll a concentrations into physically and biologically driven contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olonscheck, D; Hofmann, M; Schellnhuber, H J; Worm, B

    2013-01-01

    Recently compiled observational data suggest a substantial decline in the global median chlorophyll a concentration over the 20th century, a trend that appears to be linked to ocean warming. Several modelling studies have considered changes in the ocean’s physical structure as a possible cause, while experimental work supports a biological mechanism, namely an observed increase in zooplankton grazing rate that outpaces phytoplankton production at higher temperatures. Here, we present transient simulations derived from a coupled ocean general circulation and carbon cycle model forced by atmospheric fields under unabated anthropogenic global warming (IPCC SRES A1FI scenario). The simulations account for both physical and biological mechanisms, and can reproduce about one quarter of the observed chlorophyll a decline during the 20th century, when using realistically parameterized temperature sensitivity of zooplankton metabolism (Q 10 between 2 and 4) and phytoplankton growth (Q 10 ∼ 1.9). Therefore, we have employed and re-calibrated the standard ecosystem model which assumes a lower temperature sensitivity of zooplankton grazing (Q 10 = 1.1049) by re-scaling phytoplankton growth rates and zooplankton grazing rates. Our model projects a global chlorophyll a decline of >50% by the end of the 21st century. While phytoplankton abundance and chlorophyll a experience pronounced negative effects, primary production and zooplankton concentrations are less sensitive to ocean warming. Although changes in physical structure play an important role, much of the simulated change in chlorophyll a and productivity is related to the uneven temperature sensitivity of the marine ecosystem. (letter)

  20. A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-09-15

    A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

  1. Door still open for action on issue of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crow, P.

    1992-01-01

    Global warming may or may not be a legitimate environmental threat, but Washington lobbyists consider it a legislative threat. It does not appear the current Congress will limit or tax use of U.S. fossil fuels, whose burning releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This paper reports that some scientists have claimed a concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will result in a significant warming of the earth by 2050, threatening agriculture, altering ecosystems, and even melting polar ice and causing rising oceans to flood coastal areas and islands. In 1990 a United Nations panel of climate scientists predicted a 2 degrees C. increase in world temperatures within 35 years and 6 degrees by the end of the next century. Some scientists say preventing further increases will require a 60% reduction in current CO 2 emissions. The oil industry already is beginning to feel heat from the global warming issue. The Environmental Protection Agency calculates energy production and use is responsible for 57% of current emissions caused by man

  2. Calcium carbonate production response to future ocean warming and acidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pinsonneault

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions are acidifying the ocean, affecting calcification rates in pelagic organisms, and thereby modifying the oceanic carbon and alkalinity cycles. However, the responses of pelagic calcifying organisms to acidification vary widely between species, contributing uncertainty to predictions of atmospheric CO2 and the resulting climate change. At the same time, ocean warming caused by rising CO2 is expected to drive increased growth rates of all pelagic organisms, including calcifiers. It thus remains unclear whether anthropogenic CO2 emissions will ultimately increase or decrease pelagic calcification rates. Here, we assess the importance of this uncertainty by introducing a dependence of calcium carbonate (CaCO3 production on calcite saturation state (ΩCaCO3 in an intermediate complexity coupled carbon-climate model. In a series of model simulations, we examine the impact of several variants of this dependence on global ocean carbon cycling between 1800 and 3500 under two different CO2 emissions scenarios. Introducing a calcification-saturation state dependence has a significant effect on the vertical and surface horizontal alkalinity gradients, as well as on the removal of alkalinity from the ocean through CaCO3 burial. These changes result in an additional oceanic uptake of carbon when calcification depends on ΩCaCO3 (of up to 270 Pg C, compared to the case where calcification does not depend on acidification. In turn, this response causes a reduction of global surface air temperature of up to 0.4 °C in year 3500. Different versions of the model produced varying results, and narrowing this range of uncertainty will require better understanding of both temperature and acidification effects on pelagic calcifiers. Nevertheless, our results suggest that alkalinity observations can be used

  3. Transgenerational effects of ocean warming on the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Chong; Zhang, Lisheng; Shi, Dongtao; Ding, Jingyun; Yin, Donghong; Sun, Jiangnan; Zhang, Baojing; Zhang, Lingling; Chang, Yaqing

    2018-04-30

    Transgenerational effects, which involve both selection and plasticity, are important for the evolutionary adaptation of echinoderms in the changing ocean. Here, we investigated the effects of breeding design and water temperature for offspring on fertilization, hatchability, larval survival, size, abnormality and metamorphosis of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius, whose dams and sires were exposed to long-term (~15 months) elevated temperature (~3°C above ambient) or ambient temperature. There was no transgenerational effect on fertilization and metamorphosis of S. intermedius, while negative transgenerational effects were found in hatchability and most traits of larval size. Dam and sire effects were highly trait and developmental stage dependent. Interestingly, we found S. intermedius probably cannot achieve transgenerational acclimation to long-term elevated temperature for survival provided their offspring were exposed to an elevated temperature. The present study enriches our understanding of transgenerational effects of ocean warming on sea urchins. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of Antarctic ice shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattyn, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise increases steadily. A fundamental question remains whether the ice discharge will lead to marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and collapse of certain sectors of the ice sheet or whether ice loss will increase linearly with the warming trends. Therefore, we employ a newly developed ice sheet model of the Antarctic ice sheet, called f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model) to simulate ice sheet response to abrupt perturbations in ocean and atmospheric temperature. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid (SSA/SIA) ice sheet model including ice shelves. Although vertically integrated, thermomechanical coupling is ensured through a simplified representation of ice sheet thermodynamics based on an analytical solution of the vertical temperature profile, including strain heating and horizontal advection. The marine boundary is represented by a flux condition either coherent with power-law basal sliding (Pollard & Deconto (2012) based on Schoof (2007)) or according to Coulomb basal friction (Tsai et al., 2015), both taking into account ice-shelf buttressing. Model initialization is based on optimization of the basal friction field. Besides the traditional MISMIP tests, new tests with respect to MISI in plan-view models have been devised. The model is forced with stepwise ocean and atmosphere temperature perturbations. The former is based on a parametrised sub-shelf melt (limited to ice shelves), while the latter is based on present-day mass balance/surface temperature and corrected for elevation changes. Surface melting is introduced using a PDD model. Results show a general linear response in mass loss to ocean warming. Nonlinear response due to MISI occurs under specific conditions and is highly sensitive to the basal conditions near the grounding line, governed by both the initial conditions and the basal sliding/deformation model. The Coulomb friction model leads to significantly higher

  5. Meta-analysis reveals complex marine biological responses to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Ben P; Gwynn-Jones, Dylan; Moore, Pippa J

    2013-01-01

    Ocean acidification and warming are considered two of the greatest threats to marine biodiversity, yet the combined effect of these stressors on marine organisms remains largely unclear. Using a meta-analytical approach, we assessed the biological responses of marine organisms to the effects of ocean acidification and warming in isolation and combination. As expected biological responses varied across taxonomic groups, life-history stages, and trophic levels, but importantly, combining stressors generally exhibited a stronger biological (either positive or negative) effect. Using a subset of orthogonal studies, we show that four of five of the biological responses measured (calcification, photosynthesis, reproduction, and survival, but not growth) interacted synergistically when warming and acidification were combined. The observed synergisms between interacting stressors suggest that care must be made in making inferences from single-stressor studies. Our findings clearly have implications for the development of adaptive management strategies particularly given that the frequency of stressors interacting in marine systems will be likely to intensify in the future. There is now an urgent need to move toward more robust, holistic, and ecologically realistic climate change experiments that incorporate interactions. Without them accurate predictions about the likely deleterious impacts to marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning over the next century will not be possible. PMID:23610641

  6. Physiological responses to ocean acidification and warming synergistically reduce condition of the common cockle Cerastoderma edule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, E Z; Briffa, M; Moens, T; Van Colen, C

    2017-09-01

    The combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the common cockle Cerastoderma edule was investigated in a fully crossed laboratory experiment. Survival of the examined adult organisms remained high and was not affected by elevated temperature (+3 °C) or lowered pH (-0.3 units). However, the morphometric condition index of the cockles incubated under high pCO 2 conditions (i.e. combined warming and acidification) was significantly reduced after six weeks of incubation. Respiration rates increased significantly under low pH, with highest rates measured under combined warm and low pH conditions. Calcification decreased significantly under low pH while clearance rates increased significantly under warm conditions and were generally lower in low pH treatments. The observed physiological responses suggest that the reduced food intake under hypercapnia is insufficient to support the higher energy requirements to compensate for the higher costs for basal maintenance and growth in future high pCO 2 waters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  8. The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Henson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology of oceanic primary production (PP is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

  9. The bioeroding sponge Cliona orientalis will not tolerate future projected ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsby, Blake D; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Smith, Hillary A; Whalan, Steve; Webster, Nicole S

    2018-05-29

    Coral reefs face many stressors associated with global climate change, including increasing sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. Excavating sponges, such as Cliona spp., are expected to break down reef substrata more quickly as seawater becomes more acidic. However, increased bioerosion requires that Cliona spp. maintain physiological performance and health under continuing ocean warming. In this study, we exposed C. orientalis to temperature increments increasing from 23 to 32 °C. At 32 °C, or 3 °C above the maximum monthly mean (MMM) temperature, sponges bleached and the photosynthetic capacity of Symbiodinium was compromised, consistent with sympatric corals. Cliona orientalis demonstrated little capacity to recover from thermal stress, remaining bleached with reduced Symbiodinium density and energy reserves after one month at reduced temperature. In comparison, C. orientalis was not observed to bleach during the 2017 coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef, when temperatures did not reach the 32 °C threshold. While C. orientalis can withstand current temperature extremes (<3 °C above MMM) under laboratory and natural conditions, this species would not survive ocean temperatures projected for 2100 without acclimatisation or adaptation (≥3 °C above MMM). Hence, as ocean temperatures increase above local thermal thresholds, C. orientalis will have a negligible impact on reef erosion.

  10. Boosted food web productivity through ocean acidification collapses under warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldenberg, Silvan U; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Ferreira, Camilo M; Ullah, Hadayet; Connell, Sean D

    2017-10-01

    Future climate is forecast to drive bottom-up (resource driven) and top-down (consumer driven) change to food web dynamics and community structure. Yet, our predictive understanding of these changes is hampered by an over-reliance on simplified laboratory systems centred on single trophic levels. Using a large mesocosm experiment, we reveal how future ocean acidification and warming modify trophic linkages across a three-level food web: that is, primary (algae), secondary (herbivorous invertebrates) and tertiary (predatory fish) producers. Both elevated CO 2 and elevated temperature boosted primary production. Under elevated CO 2 , the enhanced bottom-up forcing propagated through all trophic levels. Elevated temperature, however, negated the benefits of elevated CO 2 by stalling secondary production. This imbalance caused secondary producer populations to decline as elevated temperature drove predators to consume their prey more rapidly in the face of higher metabolic demand. Our findings demonstrate how anthropogenic CO 2 can function as a resource that boosts productivity throughout food webs, and how warming can reverse this effect by acting as a stressor to trophic interactions. Understanding the shifting balance between the propagation of resource enrichment and its consumption across trophic levels provides a predictive understanding of future dynamics of stability and collapse in food webs and fisheries production. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

  12. NEOTEC: Negative-CO2-Emissions Marine Energy With Direct Mitigation of Global Warming, Sea-Level Rise and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rau, G. H.; Baird, J.; Noland, G.

    2016-12-01

    The vertical thermal energy potential in the ocean is a massive renewable energy resource that is growing due to anthropogenic warming of the surface and near-surface ocean. The conversion of this thermal energy to useful forms via Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) has been demonstrated over the past century, albeit at small scales. Because OTEC removes heat from the surface ocean, this could help directly counter ongoing, deleterious ocean/atmosphere warming. The only other climate intervention that could do this is solar radiation "geoengineering". Conventional OTEC requires energy intensive, vertical movement of seawater resulting in ocean and atmospheric chemistry alteration, but this can be avoided via more energy efficient, vertical closed-cycle heating and cooling of working fluid like CO2 or NH3. An energy carrier such as H2 is required to transport energy optimally extracted far offshore, and methods of electrochemically generating H2 while also consuming CO2 and converting it to ocean alkalinity have been demonstrated. The addition of such alkalinity to the ocean would provide vast, stable, carbon storage, while also helping chemically counter the effects of ocean acidification. The process might currently be profitable given the >$100/tonne CO2 credit offered by California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard for transportation fuels like H2. Negative-Emissions OTEC, NEOTEC, thus can potentially provide constant, cost effective, high capacity, negative-emissions energy while: a) reducing surface ocean heat load, b) reducing thermal ocean expansion and sea-level rise, c) utilizing a very large, natural marine carbon storage reservoir, and d) helping mitigate ocean acidification. The technology also avoids the biophysical and land use limitations posed by negative emissions methods that rely on terrestrial biology, such as afforestation and BECCS. NEOTEC and other marine-based, renewable energy and CO2 removal approaches could therefore greatly increase the

  13. Calcification persists with CO2-induced ocean acidification but decreases with warming for the Caribbean coral Siderastrea siderea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, K. D.; Ries, J. B.; Westfield, I. T.; Weiss, J. M.; Bruno, J. F.

    2012-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) induced ocean acidification and rising seawater temperatures are identified as two of the greatest threats to modern coral reefs. Within this century, surface seawater pH is expected to decrease by at least 0.3 units, and sea surface temperature is predicted to rise by 1 to 3 °C. However, uncertainty remains as to whether ocean acidification or ocean warming will have a more deleterious impact on coral reefs by the end of the century. Here, we present results of 95-day laboratory experiments in which we investigated the impact of CO2-induced ocean acidification and temperature on the calcification rate of the tropical reef-building zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea. We found that calcification rates for S. siderea, estimated from buoyant weighing, increased as pCO2 increased from a pre-industrial value of 324 ppm to a near-present-day value of 477 ppm, remained unchanged as pCO2 increased from 477 ppm to the predicted end-of-century value of 604 ppm, and only declined at 6-times the modern pCO2 value of 2553 ppm. Corals reared at average pCO2 of 488 ppm and at temperatures of 25 and 32 °C, approximately the lower and upper temperature extremes for this species, calcified at lower rates relative to corals reared at 28 °C under equivalent pCO2. These results support the existing evidence that scleractinian corals such as S. siderea are able to manipulate the carbonate chemistry at their calcification site, enabling them to maintain their calcification rates under elevated pCO2 levels predicted for the end of this century. However, exposure of S. siderea corals to sea surface temperatures predicted for tropical waters for the end of this century grossly impaired their rate of calcification. These findings suggest that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat to the coral S. siderea than does ocean acidification, at least under scenarios (B1, A1T, and B2) predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

  14. Greenhouse Warming Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent Erik

    2016-01-01

    The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

  15. Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Sonali P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Jonas, Jeff; Sohl, Linda E.; Mankoff, Ken; Dowsett, Harry J.

    2009-01-01

     Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Niño–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Niño event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Niño (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Niño and IOD.

  16. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  17. Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenju; Wang, Guojian; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Santoso, Agus; Lin, Xiaopei; Chen, Zhaohui; Jia, Fan; Yamagata, Toshio

    2018-04-12

    Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) affects weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health worldwide, particularly when exacerbated by an extreme El Niño. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming below 2 °C and ideally below 1.5 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), but how extreme pIOD will respond to this target is unclear. Here we show that the frequency increases linearly as the warming proceeds, and doubles at 1.5 °C warming from the pre-industrial level (statistically significant above the 90% confidence level), underscored by a strong intermodel agreement with 11 out of 13 models producing an increase. However, in sharp contrast to a continuous increase in extreme El Niño frequency long after GMT stabilisation, the extreme pIOD frequency peaks as the GMT stabilises. The contrasting response corresponds to a 50% reduction in frequency of an extreme El Niño preceded by an extreme pIOD from that projected under a business-as-usual scenario.

  18. Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeil, Ben I.; Matear, Richard J.

    2007-01-01

    Oceanic anthropogenic CO 2 uptake will decrease both the pH and the aragonite saturation state (Oarag) of seawater leading to an oceanic acidification. However, the factors controlling future changes in pH and Oarag are independent and will respond differently to oceanic climate change feedbacks such as ocean warming, circulation and biological changes. We examine the sensitivity of these two CO 2 -related parameters to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The ocean warming feedback was found to dominate the climate change responses in the surface ocean. Although surface pH is projected to decrease relatively uniformly by about 0.3 by the year 2100, we find pH to be insensitive to climate change feedbacks, whereas Oarag is buffered by ∼15%. Ocean carbonate chemistry creates a situation whereby the direct pH changes due to ocean warming are almost cancelled by the pH changes associated with dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations changes via a reduction in CO 2 solubility from ocean warming. We show that the small climate change feedback on future surface ocean pH is independent to the amount of ocean warming. Our analysis therefore implies that future projections of surface ocean acidification only need to consider future atmospheric CO 2 levels, not climate change induced modifications in the ocean

  19. Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

    The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

  20. An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooley, Sarah R; Rheuban, Jennie E; Hart, Deborah R; Luu, Victoria; Glover, David M; Hare, Jonathan A; Doney, Scott C

    2015-01-01

    Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean

  1. Long-term effects of ocean warming on vibrios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruzzo, C.; Pezzati, E.; Brettar, I.; Reid, P. C.; Colwell, R.; Höfle, M. G.; vezzulli, L.

    2012-12-01

    Vibrios are a major source of human disease, play an important role in the ecology and health of marine animals and are regarded as an abundant fraction of culturable bacteria of the ocean. There has been a considerable global effort to reduce the risk of Vibrio infections and yet in most countries both human and non-human illnesses associated with these bacteria are increasing. The cause of this increase is not known, but since vibrios are strongly thermodependant there is good reason to believe that global warming may have contributed. To investigate this possibility we examined historical samples from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) archive using advanced molecular analysis and pyrosequencing. For the first time we were able to recover environmental DNA from CPR samples that had been stored for up to ~50 years in a formalin-fixed format, which is suitable for molecular analyses of the associated prokaryotic community. To overcome the problem of DNA degradation due to the sample age and storage in formalin we develop an unbiased index of abundance for Vibrio quantification in CPR samples termed a 'relative Vibrio Abundance Index' (VAI). VAI is defined as the ratio of Vibrio spp. cells to total bacterial cells assessed by Real-Time PCR using genus-specific and universal primers, respectively, producing small amplicons of similar size (~100bp). We assessed VAI index on 55 samples (each representing 10 nautical miles tow equal to 3 m3 of filtered sewater) collected in August by the CPR survey in the North Sea from off the Rhine and Humber estuaries between 1961 to 2005 showing that the genus Vibrio has increased in prevalence in the last 44 years and that this increase is correlated significantly, during the same period, with warming sea surface temperature. In addition, by applying deep sequencing analysis of a subset of these samples we provide evidence that bacteria belonging to the genus Vibrio, including the human pathogen V. cholerae, not only increased

  2. Multimillennium changes in dissolved oxygen under global warming: results from an AOGCM and offline ocean biogeochemical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.

  3. Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

    2018-06-01

    This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

  4. Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

  5. Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

    2014-01-01

    One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

  6. Sea urchins in a high-CO2 world: the influence of acclimation on the immune response to ocean warming and acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brothers, C J; Harianto, J; McClintock, J B; Byrne, M

    2016-08-31

    Climate-induced ocean warming and acidification may render marine organisms more vulnerable to infectious diseases. We investigated the effects of warming and acidification on the immune response of the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma Sea urchins were gradually introduced to four combinations of temperature and pHNIST (17°C/pH 8.15, 17°C/pH 7.6, 23°C/pH 8.15 and 23°C/pH 7.6) and then held in temperature-pH treatments for 1, 15 or 30 days to determine if the immune response would adjust to stressors over time. Coelomocyte concentration and type, phagocytic capacity and bactericidal activity were measured on day 1, 15 and 30 with different sea urchins used each time. At each time point, the coelomic fluid of individuals exposed to increased temperature and acidification had the lowest coelomocyte concentrations, exhibited lower phagocytic capacities and was least effective at inhibiting bacterial growth of the pathogen Vibrio anguillarum Over time, increased temperature alleviated the negative effects of acidification on phagocytic activity. Our results demonstrate the importance of incorporating acclimation time to multiple stressors when assessing potential responses to future ocean conditions and indicate that the immune response of H. erythrogramma may be compromised under near-future ocean warming and acidification. © 2016 The Author(s).

  7. King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming

    OpenAIRE

    Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M.; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C.; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon

    2008-01-01

    Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species,...

  8. Role of the ocean mixed layer processes in the response of the North Pacific winter SST and MLD to global warming in CGCMs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-03-15

    It is investigated how the changes of winter sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) under climate change projections are predicted differently in the North Pacific depending on the coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), and how they are related to the dynamical property of the simulated ocean mixed layer. For this purpose the dataset from eleven CGCMs reported to IPCC's AR4 are used, while detailed analysis is given to the MRI and MIROC models. Analysis of the CGCM data reveals that the increase of SST and the decrease of MLD in response to global warming tend to be smaller for the CGCM in which the ratio of ocean heat transport (OHT) to surface heat flux (SHF), R (=OHT/SHF), is larger in the heat budget of the mixed layer. The negative correlation is found between the changes of OHT and SHF under global warming, which may weaken the response to global warming in the CGCM with larger R. It is also found that the models with low horizontal resolution tend to give broader western boundary currents, larger R, and the smaller changes of SST and MLD under global warming. (orig.)

  9. Interaction strength between different grazers and macroalgae mediated by ocean acidification over warming gradients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, E; Rodil, I F; Vaz-Pinto, F; Fernández, A; Arenas, F

    2017-04-01

    Since the past century, rising CO 2 levels have led to global changes (ocean warming and acidification) with subsequent effects on marine ecosystems and organisms. Macroalgae-herbivore interactions have a main role in the regulation of marine community structure (top-down control). Gradients of warming prompt complex non-linear effects on organism metabolism, cascading into altered trophic interactions and community dynamics. However, not much is known on how will acidification and grazer assemblage composition shape these effects. Within this context, we aimed to assess the combined effects of warming gradients and acidification on macroalgae-herbivore interactions, using three cosmopolitan species, abundant in the Iberian Peninsula and closely associated in nature: the amphipod Melita palmata, the gastropod Gibbula umbilicalis, and the green macroalga Ulva rigida. Under two CO 2 treatments (ΔCO 2 ≃ 450 μatm) across a temperature gradient (13.5, 16.6, 19.9 and 22.1 °C), two mesocosm experiments were performed to assess grazer consumption rates and macroalgae-herbivore interaction, respectively. Warming (Experiment I and II) and acidification (Experiment II) prompted negative effects in grazer's survival and species-specific differences in consumption rates. M. palmata was shown to be the stronger grazer per biomass (but not per capita), and also the most affected by climate stressors. Macroalgae-herbivore interaction strength was markedly shaped by the temperature gradient, while simultaneous acidification lowered thermal optimal threshold. In the near future, warming and acidification are likely to strengthen top-down control, but further increases in disturbances may lead to bottom-up regulated communities. Finally, our results suggest that grazer assemblage composition may modulate future macroalgae-herbivore interactions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The land/ocean temperature contrast in natural variability

    OpenAIRE

    Tyrrell, Nicholas Luke

    2017-01-01

    In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures (T_land) warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/ocean warming temperature contrast. This land/ocean contrast is not only due to the different heat capacities of the land and ocean as it exists for transient and equilibrium scenarios. Similarly, the interannual variability of T_land is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/ocean ...

  11. Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

    2004-01-01

    In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

  12. Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

    2004-01-01

    In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

  13. The combined effects of ocean warming and acidification on shallow-water meiofaunal assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Matthew R; Torres, Rodrigo; Manríquez, Patricio H

    2017-10-01

    Climate change due to increased anthropogenic CO 2 in the atmosphere is causing an increase in seawater temperatures referred to as ocean warming and a decrease in seawater pH, referred to as ocean acidification. The meiofauna play an important role in the ecology of marine ecosystems and the functions they provide. Using microcosms, meiofaunal assemblages were exposed to two temperatures (15 and 19 °C) and two pHs (pCO 2 of 400 and 1000 ppm), both individually and in combination, for a period of 90 days. The hypothesis that increased temperature will increase meiofaunal abundance was not supported. The hypothesis that a reduced pH will reduce meiofaunal abundance and species richness was supported. The combination of future conditions of temperature and pH (19 °C and pCO 2 of 1000 ppm) did not affect overall abundance but the structure of the nematode assemblage changed becoming dominated by a few opportunistic species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A model study of warming-induced phosphorus-oxygen feedbacks in open-ocean oxygen minimum zones on millennial timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeyer, Daniela; Kemena, Tronje P.; Meissner, Katrin J.; Oschlies, Andreas

    2017-05-01

    Observations indicate an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) over the past 50 years, likely related to ongoing deoxygenation caused by reduced oxygen solubility, changes in stratification and circulation, and a potential acceleration of organic matter turnover in a warming climate. The overall area of ocean sediments that are in direct contact with low-oxygen bottom waters also increases with expanding OMZs. This leads to a release of phosphorus from ocean sediments. If anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, higher temperatures will cause enhanced weathering on land, which, in turn, will increase the phosphorus and alkalinity fluxes into the ocean and therefore raise the ocean's phosphorus inventory even further. A higher availability of phosphorus enhances biological production, remineralisation and oxygen consumption, and might therefore lead to further expansions of OMZs, representing a positive feedback. A negative feedback arises from the enhanced productivity-induced drawdown of carbon and also increased uptake of CO2 due to weathering-induced alkalinity input. This feedback leads to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 and weathering rates. Here, we quantify these two competing feedbacks on millennial timescales for a high CO2 emission scenario. Using the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity, our model results suggest that the positive benthic phosphorus release feedback has only a minor impact on the size of OMZs in the next 1000 years. The increase in the marine phosphorus inventory under assumed business-as-usual global warming conditions originates, on millennial timescales, almost exclusively (> 80 %) from the input via terrestrial weathering and causes a 4- to 5-fold expansion of the suboxic water volume in the model.

  15. A model study of warming-induced phosphorus–oxygen feedbacks in open-ocean oxygen minimum zones on millennial timescales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Niemeyer

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Observations indicate an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs over the past 50 years, likely related to ongoing deoxygenation caused by reduced oxygen solubility, changes in stratification and circulation, and a potential acceleration of organic matter turnover in a warming climate. The overall area of ocean sediments that are in direct contact with low-oxygen bottom waters also increases with expanding OMZs. This leads to a release of phosphorus from ocean sediments. If anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, higher temperatures will cause enhanced weathering on land, which, in turn, will increase the phosphorus and alkalinity fluxes into the ocean and therefore raise the ocean's phosphorus inventory even further. A higher availability of phosphorus enhances biological production, remineralisation and oxygen consumption, and might therefore lead to further expansions of OMZs, representing a positive feedback. A negative feedback arises from the enhanced productivity-induced drawdown of carbon and also increased uptake of CO2 due to weathering-induced alkalinity input. This feedback leads to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 and weathering rates. Here, we quantify these two competing feedbacks on millennial timescales for a high CO2 emission scenario. Using the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity, our model results suggest that the positive benthic phosphorus release feedback has only a minor impact on the size of OMZs in the next 1000 years. The increase in the marine phosphorus inventory under assumed business-as-usual global warming conditions originates, on millennial timescales, almost exclusively (> 80 % from the input via terrestrial weathering and causes a 4- to 5-fold expansion of the suboxic water volume in the model.

  16. 76 FR 77465 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Threatened Status for Distinct Population Segments of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-13

    ... Population Segments of the Bearded Seal AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic... population segments (DPS) of the bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus) as threatened species under the... posed to this population by the projected habitat changes. Extension of Final Listing Determination The...

  17. GLOBAL WARMING: IS A NEW THREAT?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayca Eminoglu

    2008-09-30

    In the Post Cold War era, the concepts of ''security'', ''national security'', and ''international security'' have changed with regard to their contents and meanings. Such developments made states to renew their national security policies. Security is a special form of politics as well. All security issues are political problems but not all political conflicts are security issues. In the Post Cold War era, differentiating and increasing numbers of elements that constitutes threat changed the concept of threat and widen the capacity of security. In this term, many elements lost its effect of being a threat but also new threatening elements emerged. Environmental problems, human rights, mass migration, micro nationalism, ethnic conflicts, religious fundamentalism, contagious diseases, international terrorism, economic instabilities, drug and weapon smuggling and human trafficking are the new problems emerged in international security agenda. Environmental problems no longer take place in security issues and can be mentioned as a ''low security'' issue. They are threats to the global commons i.e. the oceans, the seas, the ozone layer and the climate system, which are life supports for mankind as a whole. Global warming is one of the most important environmental issues of our day that effects human life in every field and can be defined as a 'serious threat to international security'. Because of global warming, environmental changes will occur and these changes will cause conflicting issues in international relations. Because of global warming dwindling freshwater supplies, food shortages, political instability and other conflicts may take place. Some IR scholars see a need for global cooperation in order to face the threat. At the background of global warming and its effects, states have to get preventive measures and normally, each state form its own measures, therefore as a

  18. Ocean Warming Enhances Malformations, Premature Hatching, Metabolic Suppression and Oxidative Stress in the Early Life Stages of a Keystone Squid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Rui; Pimentel, Marta S.; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Teixeira, Tatiana; Trübenbach, Katja; Diniz, Mário

    2012-01-01

    Background The knowledge about the capacity of organisms’ early life stages to adapt to elevated temperatures is very limited but crucial to understand how marine biota will respond to global warming. Here we provide a comprehensive and integrated view of biological responses to future warming during the early ontogeny of a keystone invertebrate, the squid Loligo vulgaris. Methodology/Principal Findings Recently-spawned egg masses were collected and reared until hatching at present day and projected near future (+2°C) temperatures, to investigate the ability of early stages to undergo thermal acclimation, namely phenotypic altering of morphological, behavioural, biochemical and physiological features. Our findings showed that under the projected near-future warming, the abiotic conditions inside the eggs promoted metabolic suppression, which was followed by premature hatching. Concomitantly, the less developed newborns showed greater incidence of malformations. After hatching, the metabolic burst associated with the transition from an encapsulated embryo to a planktonic stage increased linearly with temperature. However, the greater exposure to environmental stress by the hatchlings seemed to be compensated by physiological mechanisms that reduce the negative effects on fitness. Heat shock proteins (HSP70/HSC70) and antioxidant enzymes activities constituted an integrated stress response to ocean warming in hatchlings (but not in embryos). Conclusions/Significance The stressful abiotic conditions inside eggs are expected to be aggravated under the projected near-future ocean warming, with deleterious effects on embryo survival and growth. Greater feeding challenges and the lower thermal tolerance limits of the hatchlings are strictly connected to high metabolic demands associated with the planktonic life strategy. Yet, we found some evidence that, in the future, the early stages might support higher energy demands by adjusting some cellular functional properties

  19. Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

    2017-01-01

    The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-08-15

    The response of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models, i.e., the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Here, we examine the role of the simulated upper ocean temperature structure in the different sensitivities of the simulated ENSO variability in the models based on the different level of CO{sub 2} concentrations. In the MRI model, the sea surface temperature (SST) undergoes a rather drastic modification, namely a tendency toward a permanent El Nino-like state. This is associated with an enhanced stratification which results in greater ENSO amplitude for the MRI model. On the other hand, the ENSO simulated by GFDL model is hardly modified although the mean temperature in the near surface layer increases. In order to understand the associated mechanisms we carry out a vertical mode decomposition of the mean equatorial stratification and a simplified heat balance analysis using an intermediate tropical Pacific model tuned from the CGCM outputs. It is found that in the MRI model the increased stratification is associated with an enhancement of the zonal advective feedback and the non-linear advection. In the GFDL model, on the other hand, the thermocline variability and associated anomalous vertical advection are reduced in the eastern equatorial Pacific under global warming, which erodes the thermocline feedback and explains why the ENSO amplitude is reduced in a warmer climate in this model. It is suggested that change in stratification associated with global warming impacts the equatorial wave dynamics in a way that enhances the second baroclinic mode over the gravest one, which leads to the change in feedback processes in the CGCMs. Our results illustrate that the upper ocean vertical structure simulated in the CGCMs is a key parameter of the sensitivity of ENSO

  1. The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiao-Hai; Boyer, Tim; Trenberth, Kevin; Karl, Thomas R.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Nieves, Veronica; Tung, Ka-Kit; Roemmich, Dean

    2016-11-01

    Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.

  2. Phenological and distributional shifts in ichthyoplankton associated with recent warming in the northeast Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auth, Toby D; Daly, Elizabeth A; Brodeur, Richard D; Fisher, Jennifer L

    2018-01-01

    Understanding changes in the migratory and reproductive phenology of fish stocks in relation to climate change is critical for accurate ecosystem-based fisheries management. Relocation and changes in timing of reproduction can have dramatic effects upon the success of fish populations and throughout the food web. During anomalously warm conditions (1-4°C above normal) in the northeast Pacific Ocean during 2015-2016, we documented shifts in timing and spawning location of several pelagic fish stocks based on larval fish samples. Total larval concentrations in the northern California Current (NCC) during winter (January-March) 2015 and 2016 were the highest observed since annual collections first occurred in 1998, primarily due to increased abundances of Engraulis mordax (northern anchovy) and Sardinops sagax (Pacific sardine) larvae, which are normally summer spawning species in this region. Sardinops sagax and Merluccius productus (Pacific hake) exhibited an unprecedented early and northward spawning expansion during 2015-16. In addition, spawning duration was greatly increased for E. mordax, as the presence of larvae was observed throughout the majority of 2015-16, indicating prolonged and nearly continuous spawning of adults throughout the warm period. Larvae from all three of these species have never before been collected in the NCC as early in the year. In addition, other southern species were collected in the NCC during this period. This suggests that the spawning phenology and distribution of several ecologically and commercially important fish species dramatically and rapidly changed in response to the warming conditions occurring in 2014-2016, and could be an indication of future conditions under projected climate change. Changes in spawning timing and poleward migration of fish populations due to warmer ocean conditions or global climate change will negatively impact areas that were historically dependent on these fish, and change the food web structure

  3. The epigenetic landscape of transgenerational acclimation to ocean warming

    KAUST Repository

    Ryu, Tae Woo; Veilleux, Heather D.; Donelson, Jennifer M.; Munday, Philip L.; Ravasi, Timothy

    2018-01-01

    Epigenetic inheritance is a potential mechanism by which the environment in one generation can influence the performance of future generations1. Rapid climate change threatens the survival of many organisms; however, recent studies show that some species can adjust to climate-related stress when both parents and their offspring experience the same environmental change2,3. Whether such transgenerational acclimation could have an epigenetic basis is unknown. Here, by sequencing the liver genome, methylomes and transcriptomes of the coral reef fish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, exposed to current day (+0 °C) or future ocean temperatures (+3 °C) for one generation, two generations and incrementally across generations, we identified 2,467 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) and 1,870 associated genes that respond to higher temperatures within and between generations. Of these genes, 193 were significantly correlated to the transgenerationally acclimating phenotypic trait, aerobic scope, with functions in insulin response, energy homeostasis, mitochondrial activity, oxygen consumption and angiogenesis. These genes may therefore play a key role in restoring performance across generations in fish exposed to increased temperatures associated with climate change. Our study is the first to demonstrate a possible association between DNA methylation and transgenerational acclimation to climate change in a vertebrate.

  4. The epigenetic landscape of transgenerational acclimation to ocean warming

    KAUST Repository

    Ryu, Tae Woo

    2018-04-26

    Epigenetic inheritance is a potential mechanism by which the environment in one generation can influence the performance of future generations1. Rapid climate change threatens the survival of many organisms; however, recent studies show that some species can adjust to climate-related stress when both parents and their offspring experience the same environmental change2,3. Whether such transgenerational acclimation could have an epigenetic basis is unknown. Here, by sequencing the liver genome, methylomes and transcriptomes of the coral reef fish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, exposed to current day (+0 °C) or future ocean temperatures (+3 °C) for one generation, two generations and incrementally across generations, we identified 2,467 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) and 1,870 associated genes that respond to higher temperatures within and between generations. Of these genes, 193 were significantly correlated to the transgenerationally acclimating phenotypic trait, aerobic scope, with functions in insulin response, energy homeostasis, mitochondrial activity, oxygen consumption and angiogenesis. These genes may therefore play a key role in restoring performance across generations in fish exposed to increased temperatures associated with climate change. Our study is the first to demonstrate a possible association between DNA methylation and transgenerational acclimation to climate change in a vertebrate.

  5. Animal behaviour shapes the ecological effects of ocean acidification and warming: moving from individual to community-level responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelkerken, Ivan; Munday, Philip L

    2016-03-01

    Biological communities are shaped by complex interactions between organisms and their environment as well as interactions with other species. Humans are rapidly changing the marine environment through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in ocean warming and acidification. The first response by animals to environmental change is predominantly through modification of their behaviour, which in turn affects species interactions and ecological processes. Yet, many climate change studies ignore animal behaviour. Furthermore, our current knowledge of how global change alters animal behaviour is mostly restricted to single species, life phases and stressors, leading to an incomplete view of how coinciding climate stressors can affect the ecological interactions that structure biological communities. Here, we first review studies on the effects of warming and acidification on the behaviour of marine animals. We demonstrate how pervasive the effects of global change are on a wide range of critical behaviours that determine the persistence of species and their success in ecological communities. We then evaluate several approaches to studying the ecological effects of warming and acidification, and identify knowledge gaps that need to be filled, to better understand how global change will affect marine populations and communities through altered animal behaviours. Our review provides a synthesis of the far-reaching consequences that behavioural changes could have for marine ecosystems in a rapidly changing environment. Without considering the pervasive effects of climate change on animal behaviour we will limit our ability to forecast the impacts of ocean change and provide insights that can aid management strategies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. A simple model of the effect of ocean ventilation on ocean heat uptake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nadiga, Balasubramanya T. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2018-01-27

    Presentation includes slides on Earth System Models vs. Simple Climate Models; A Popular SCM: Energy Balance Model of Anomalies; On calibrating against one ESM experiment, the SCM correctly captures that ESM's surface warming response with other forcings; Multi-Model Analysis: Multiple ESMs, Single SCM; Posterior Distributions of ECS; However In Excess of 90% of TOA Energy Imbalance is Sequestered in the World Oceans; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Including TOA Rad. Imbalance and Ocean Heat in Calibration Improves Repr., but Significant Errors Persist; Improved Vertical Resolution Does Not Fix Problem; A Series of Expts. Confirms That Anomaly-Diffusing Models Cannot Properly Represent Ocean Heat Uptake; Physics of the Thermocline; Outcropping Isopycnals and Horizontally-Averaged Layers; Local interactions between outcropping isopycnals leads to non-local interactions between horizontally-averaged layers; Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat are Well Represented With Just 4 Layers; A Series of Expts. Confirms That When Non-Local Interactions are Allowed, the SCMs Can Represent Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat Uptake; and Summary and Conclusions.

  7. Ocean acidification compromises recruitment success of the threatened Caribbean coral Acropora palmata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Rebecca; Mason, Benjamin; Miller, Margaret; Langdon, Chris

    2010-11-23

    Ocean acidification (OA) refers to the ongoing decline in oceanic pH resulting from the uptake of atmospheric CO(2). Mounting experimental evidence suggests that OA will have negative consequences for a variety of marine organisms. Whereas the effect of OA on the calcification of adult reef corals is increasingly well documented, effects on early life history stages are largely unknown. Coral recruitment, which necessitates successful fertilization, larval settlement, and postsettlement growth and survivorship, is critical to the persistence and resilience of coral reefs. To determine whether OA threatens successful sexual recruitment of reef-building corals, we tested fertilization, settlement, and postsettlement growth of Acropora palmata at pCO(2) levels that represent average ambient conditions during coral spawning (∼400 μatm) and the range of pCO(2) increases that are expected to occur in this century [∼560 μatm (mid-CO(2)) and ∼800 μatm (high-CO(2))]. Fertilization, settlement, and growth were all negatively impacted by increasing pCO(2), and impairment of fertilization was exacerbated at lower sperm concentrations. The cumulative impact of OA on fertilization and settlement success is an estimated 52% and 73% reduction in the number of larval settlers on the reef under pCO(2) conditions projected for the middle and the end of this century, respectively. Additional declines of 39% (mid-CO(2)) and 50% (high-CO(2)) were observed in postsettlement linear extension rates relative to controls. These results suggest that OA has the potential to impact multiple, sequential early life history stages, thereby severely compromising sexual recruitment and the ability of coral reefs to recover from disturbance.

  8. Warm mid-Cretaceous high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the southern Tethys Ocean and cool high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the Arctic Ocean: asymmetric worldwide distribution of dinoflagellates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masure, Edwige; Desmares, Delphine; Vrielynck, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    Dealing with 87 articles and using a Geographical Information System, Masure and Vrielynck (2009) have mapped worldwide biogeography of 38 Late Albian dinoflagellate cysts and have demonstrated Cretaceous oceanic bioclimatic belts. For comparison 30 Aptian species derived from 49 studies (Masure et al., 2013) and 49 Cenomanian species recorded from 33 articles have been encountered. Tropical, Subtropical, Boreal, Austral, bipolar and cosmopolitan species have been identified and Cretaceous dinoflagellate biomes are introduced. Asymmetric distribution of Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian subtropical Tethyan species, from 40°N to 70°S, demonstrates asymmetric Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients with warm water masses in high latitudes of Southern Ocean. The SST gradients were stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. We note that Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian dinoflagellates restricted to subtropical and subpolar latitudes met and mixed at 35-40°N, while they mixed from 30°S to 70°S and from 50°S to 70°S respectively in the Southern Hemisphere. Mixing belts extend on 5° in the Northern Hemisphere and along 40° (Aptian) and 20° (Late Albian/Cenomanian) in the Southern one. The board southern mixing belt of Tethyan and Austral dinoflagellates suggest co-occurrence of warm and cold currents. We record climatic changes such as the Early Aptian cooler period and Late Aptian and Albian warming through the poleward migration of species constrained to cool water masses. These species sensitive to temperature migrated from 35°N to 55°N through the shallow Greenland-Norwergian Seaway connecting the Central Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. While Tethyan species did not migrate staying at 40°N. We suggest that the Greenland-Norwergian Seaway might has been a barrier until Late Albian/Cenomanian for oceanic Tethyan dinoflagellates stopped either by the shallow water column or temperature and salinity

  9. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

    2018-02-01

    Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of

  10. Calcification rates of the Caribbean reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea adversely affected by both seawater warming and CO2-induced ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, K. M.; Connolly, B. D.; Westfield, I. T.; Chow, E.; Castillo, K. D.; Ries, J. B.

    2013-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that atmospheric pCO2 will increase to ca. 550-950 ppm by the end of the century, primarily due to the anthropogenic combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation, and cement production. This is predicted to cause SST to increase by 1-3 °C and seawater pH to decrease by 0.1-0.3 units. Laboratory studies have shown that warming depresses calcification rates of scleractinian corals and that acidification yields mixed effects on coral calcification. With both warming and ocean acidification predicted for the next century, we must constrain the interactive effects of these two CO2-induced stressors on scleractinian coral calcification. Here, we present the results of experiments designed to assess the response of the scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea to both ocean warming and acidification. Coral fragments (12/tank) were reared for 60 days under three temperatures (25.1± 0.02 °C, 28.0± 0.02 °C, 31.8± 0.02 °C) at near modern pCO2 (436 ± 7) and near the highest IPCC estimate for atmospheric pCO2 for the year 2100 AD (883 ± 16). Each temperature and pCO2 treatment was executed in triplicate and contained similarly sized S. Siderea fragments obtained from the same suite of coral colonies equitably distributed amongst the nearshore, backreef, and forereef zones of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System off the coast of southern Belize. Individual coral fragments were hand fed Artemia sp. to satiation twice weekly. Weekly seawater samples (250 ml) were collected and analyzed for dissolved inorganic carbon via coulometry and total alkalinity via closed-cell potentiometric titration. Seawater pCO2, pH, carbonate ion concentration, bicarbonate ion concentration, aqueous CO2, and aragonite saturation state (ΩA) were calculated with the program CO2SYS. Under near-modern atmospheric pCO2 of ca. 436 ± 7 ppm, seawater warming from 25 to 28 to 32°C caused coral calcification rates (estimated from change in

  11. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  12. Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

    2016-07-01

    The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world's highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences.

  13. 78 FR 43145 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-19

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC767 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Commerce. ACTION: Notice of availability. SUMMARY: This...

  14. 78 FR 34653 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-10

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC717 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Commerce. ACTION: Notice of decision and availability of...

  15. Intensified Arctic warming under greenhouse warming by vegetation–atmosphere–sea ice interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Linderholm, Hans W; Chen, Deliang; Kim, Baek-Min; Jun, Sang-Yoon

    2014-01-01

    Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification. (letter)

  16. Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin

    2018-04-01

    Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect

  17. Coral Reef Ecosystems under Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Coral reefs are found in a wide range of environments, where they provide food and habitat to a large range of organisms as well as providing many other ecological goods and services. Warm-water coral reefs, for example, occupy shallow sunlit, warm, and alkaline waters in order to grow and calcify at the high rates necessary to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures. At deeper locations (40–150 m, “mesophotic” (low light coral reefs accumulate calcium carbonate at much lower rates (if at all in some cases yet remain important as habitat for a wide range of organisms, including those important for fisheries. Finally, even deeper, down to 2,000 m or more, the so-called “cold-water” coral reefs are found in the dark depths. Despite their importance, coral reefs are facing significant challenges from human activities including pollution, over-harvesting, physical destruction, and climate change. In the latter case, even lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios (such as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5 are likely drive the elimination of most warm-water coral reefs by 2040–2050. Cold-water corals are also threatened by warming temperatures and ocean acidification although evidence of the direct effect of climate change is less clear. Evidence that coral reefs can adapt at rates which are sufficient for them to keep up with rapid ocean warming and acidification is minimal, especially given that corals are long-lived and hence have slow rates of evolution. Conclusions that coral reefs will migrate to higher latitudes as they warm are equally unfounded, with the observations of tropical species appearing at high latitudes “necessary but not sufficient” evidence that entire coral reef ecosystems are shifting. On the contrary, coral reefs are likely to degrade rapidly over the next 20 years, presenting fundamental challenges for the 500 million people who derive food, income, coastal protection, and a range of

  18. Modeling studies of the Indo-Pacific warm pool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnett, T.P.; Schneider N.; Tyree, M.; Ritchie, J.; Ramanathan, V.; Sherwood, S.; Zhang, G.; Flatau, M.

    1994-01-01

    A wide variety of modeling studies are being conducted, aimed at understanding the interactions of clouds, radiation, and the ocean in the region of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the flywheel of the global climate system. These studies are designed to understand the important physical processes operating in the ocean and atmosphere in the region. A stand alone Atmospheric GCM, forced by observed sea surface temperature, has been used for several purposes. One study with the AGCM shows the high sensitivity of the tropical circulation to variations in mid- to high-level clouds. A stand-alone ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is being used to study the relative role of shortwave radiation changes in the buoyancy flux forcing of the upper ocean. Complete studies of the warm pool can only be conducted with a full coupled ocean/atmosphere model. The latest version of the Hamburg CGCM produces realistic simulations of the ocean/atmosphere system in the Indo-Pacific without use of a flux correction scheme

  19. The Oceans 2015 Initiative, Part II - An updated understanding of the observed and projected impacts of ocean warming and acidification on marine and coastal socioeconomic activities/sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weatherdon, Lauren; Sumaila, Rashid; Cheung, William W.L.; Rogers, Alex; Magnan, Alexandre

    2015-01-01

    Between 1971 and 2010, the oceans have absorbed approximately 93% of the excess heat caused by global warming, leading to several major changes such as the increase in stratification, limitation in the circulation of nutrients from deep waters to the surface, and sea level rise. In addition, the oceans absorbed 26% of anthropogenic CO 2 emitted since the start of the Industrial Revolution, which resulted in ocean acidification. Together, these processes strongly affect marine and coastal species' geographic distribution, abundance, migration patterns and phenology. As a consequence of these complex environmental changes, marine and coastal human sectors (i.e., fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism and health) are in turn at risk. This report provides an updated synthesis of what the science tells us about such a risk, based upon IPCC AR5 (2013- 2014) and published scientific articles and grey literature that have been published between July 2013 and April 2015. Although uncertainty remains strong, there is growing scientific evidence that ocean warming and acidification will affect key resources for societies through ecosystems services. For example, while AR5 indicated that coral reefs had little scope for adaptation, recent research has suggested that there may be some capacity for some coral species to recover from climatic hocks and bleaching events, and to acquire heat resistance through acclimatization. This will have huge implications on many coastal economies in the developing and developed countries. More generally, key sectors will be affected. For example, while the fish catch potential is expected to decrease at the global scale, it will show diversified trends at the regional scale as fish stocks have started shifting in latitudes or by depth. This will impact regional to local fisheries systems. Also, climate and acidification-related impacts to existing aquaculture are expected to be generally negative, with impacts varying by location

  20. Effects of ocean warming and acidification on survival, growth and skeletal development in the early benthic juvenile sea urchin (Heliocidaris erythrogramma).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, Kennedy; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Byrne, Maria

    2013-09-01

    Co-occurring ocean warming, acidification and reduced carbonate mineral saturation have significant impacts on marine biota, especially calcifying organisms. The effects of these stressors on development and calcification in newly metamorphosed juveniles (ca. 0.5 mm test diameter) of the intertidal sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma, an ecologically important species in temperate Australia, were investigated in context with present and projected future conditions. Habitat temperature and pH/pCO2 were documented to place experiments in a biologically and ecologically relevant context. These parameters fluctuated diurnally up to 10 °C and 0.45 pH units. The juveniles were exposed to three temperature (21, 23 and 25 °C) and four pH (8.1, 7.8, 7.6 and 7.4) treatments in all combinations, representing ambient sea surface conditions (21 °C, pH 8.1; pCO2 397; ΩCa 4.7; ΩAr 3.1), near-future projected change (+2-4 °C, -0.3-0.5 pH units; pCO2 400-1820; ΩCa 5.0-1.6; ΩAr 3.3-1.1), and extreme conditions experienced at low tide (+4 °C, -0.3-0.7 pH units; pCO2 2850-2967; ΩCa 1.1-1.0; ΩAr 0.7-0.6). The lowest pH treatment (pH 7.4) was used to assess tolerance levels. Juvenile survival and test growth were resilient to current and near-future warming and acidification. Spine development, however, was negatively affected by near-future increased temperature (+2-4 °C) and extreme acidification (pH 7.4), with a complex interaction between stressors. Near-future warming was the more significant stressor. Spine tips were dissolved in the pH 7.4 treatments. Adaptation to fluctuating temperature-pH conditions in the intertidal may convey resilience to juvenile H. erythrogramma to changing ocean conditions, however, ocean warming and acidification may shift baseline intertidal temperature and pH/pCO2 to levels that exceed tolerance limits. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Chromium Isotope Anomaly Scaling with Past Warming Episodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remmelzwaal, S.; O'Connor, L.; Preston, W.; Parkinson, I. J.; Schmidt, D. N.

    2017-12-01

    The recent expansion of oxygen minimum zones caused by anthropogenic global warming raises questions about the scale of this expansion with different emission scenarios. Ocean deoxygenation will impact marine ecosystems and fisheries demanding an assessment of the possible extent and intensity of deoxygenation. Here, we used past climate warming events to quantify a potential link between warming and the spread of oxygen minimum zones: including Ocean Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, OAE 2 in the Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. We applied the emerging proxy of chromium isotopes in planktic foraminifera to assess redox changes during the PETM, ETM2, and Pleistocene and bulk carbonate for the OAEs. Both δ53Cr and chromium concentrations respond markedly during the PETM indicative of a reduction in dissolved oxygen concentrations caused by changes in ocean ventilation and associated warming [1]. A strong correlation between Δδ53Cr and benthic Δδ18O, a measure of the excursion size in both oxygen and chromium isotopes, suggest temperatures to be one of the main drivers of ocean deoxygenation in the past [1]. Chromium concentrations decrease during ETM2 and OAE1a, and, increase by 4.5 ppm over the Plenus Cold Event during OAE2, which suggests enhanced seafloor ventilation. [1] Remmelzwaal, S.R.C., Dixon, S., Parkinson, I.J., Schmidt, D.N., Monteiro, F.M., Sexton, P., Fehr, M., Peacock, C., Donnadieu, Y., James, R.H., in review. Ocean deoxygenation during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. EPSL.

  2. Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oltmanns, Marilena; Karstensen, Johannes; Fischer, Jürgen

    2018-04-01

    A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1-3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010-2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, 40% of the surface freshwater was retained.

  3. Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P; Joshi, Manoj M

    2016-04-19

    Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies.

  4. Bet hedging in a warming ocean: predictability of maternal environment shapes offspring size variation in marine sticklebacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shama, Lisa N S

    2015-12-01

    Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within-clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17 °C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21 °C), implying selection for different-sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within-female egg size variability, especially at 21 °C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21 °C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21 °C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17 °C mothers reared at 17 °C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment

  5. A simple model of the effect of ocean ventilation on ocean heat uptake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiga, Balu; Urban, Nathan

    2017-11-01

    Transport of water from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior is achieved, in large part, by the process of ventilation-a process associated with outcropping isopycnals. Starting from such a configuration of outcropping isopycnals, we derive a simple model of the effect of ventilation on ocean uptake of anomalous radiative forcing. This model can be seen as an improvement of the popular anomaly-diffusing class of energy balance models (AD-EBM) that are routinely employed to analyze and emulate the warming response of both observed and simulated Earth system. We demonstrate that neither multi-layer, nor continuous-diffusion AD-EBM variants can properly represent both surface-warming and the vertical distribution of ocean heat uptake. The new model overcomes this deficiency. The simplicity of the models notwithstanding, the analysis presented and the necessity of the modification is indicative of the role played by processes related to the down-welling branch of global ocean circulation in shaping the vertical distribution of ocean heat uptake.

  6. Ocean One: A Robotic Avatar for Oceanic Discovery

    KAUST Repository

    Khatib, Oussama; Yeh, Xiyang; Brantner, Gerald; Soe, Brian; Kim, Boyeon; Ganguly, Shameek; Stuart, Hannah; Wang, Shiquan; Cutkosky, Mark; Edsinger, Aaron; Mullins, Phillip; Barham, Mitchell; Voolstra, Christian R.; Salama, Khaled N.; L'Hour, Michel; Creuze, Vincent

    2016-01-01

    The promise of oceanic discovery has long intrigued scientists and explorers, whether with the idea of studying underwater ecology and climate change or with the hope of uncovering natural resources and historic secrets buried deep in archaeological sites. This quest to explore the oceans requires skilled human access, yet much of the oceans are inaccessible to human divers; nearly ninetenths of the ocean floor is at 1 km or deeper [1]. Accessing these depths is imperative since factors such as pollution and deep-sea trawling threaten ecology and archaeological sites. While remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) are inadequate for the task, a robotic avatar could go where humans cannot and still embody human intelligence and intentions through immersive interfaces.

  7. Ocean One: A Robotic Avatar for Oceanic Discovery

    KAUST Repository

    Khatib, Oussama

    2016-11-11

    The promise of oceanic discovery has long intrigued scientists and explorers, whether with the idea of studying underwater ecology and climate change or with the hope of uncovering natural resources and historic secrets buried deep in archaeological sites. This quest to explore the oceans requires skilled human access, yet much of the oceans are inaccessible to human divers; nearly ninetenths of the ocean floor is at 1 km or deeper [1]. Accessing these depths is imperative since factors such as pollution and deep-sea trawling threaten ecology and archaeological sites. While remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) are inadequate for the task, a robotic avatar could go where humans cannot and still embody human intelligence and intentions through immersive interfaces.

  8. Oceans Melting Greenland: Early Results from NASA's Ocean-Ice Mission in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fenty, Ian; Willis, Josh K.; Khazendar, Ala

    2016-01-01

    the continental shelf, and about the extent to which the ocean interacts with glaciers. Early results from NASA's five-year Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission, based on extensive hydrographic and bathymetric surveys, suggest that many glaciers terminate in deep water and are hence vulnerable to increased...... melting due to ocean-ice interaction. OMG will track ocean conditions and ice loss at glaciers around Greenland through the year 2020, providing critical information about ocean-driven Greenland ice mass loss in a warming climate....

  9. Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

    2018-01-01

    A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

  10. Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.; Sun, Xiaoming

    2018-03-01

    Distributions of ocean mixed layer temperature trends and trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere differ, indicating the important role of the transport of heat within the ocean for determining temperature trends. Annual-mean, linear trends in the components of the tropical ocean mixed layer heat budget for 1980-2015 are diagnosed in 4 ocean reanalyses to improve our physical understanding of multidecadal-scale SST trends. The well-known temperature trend in the tropical Pacific, with cooling in the east and warming in the west, is reproduced in each reanalysis with high statistical significance. Cooling in the east is associated with negative trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere and enhanced equatorial upwelling related to a strengthening of the subtropical cells. Negative trends in the net heat flux also occur in the western tropical Pacific, but advective warming associated with a strengthening and shoaling of the equatorial undercurrent overwhelms these negative trends. The strengthening of the equatorial undercurrent is consistent with enhanced easterly wind stress, which is applied to the ocean reanalyses, and differential sea level trends that enhance the negative zonal height gradient across the Pacific. The Pacific North Equatorial countercurrent is also strengthening in all 4 reanalyses in association with a strengthening of the sea level trough at 10°N in the central and eastern Pacific. All 4 ocean reanalyses produce warming of 0.1-0.3 K/decade in the North Atlantic with statistical significance levels ranging from below 90-99%. The Atlantic is similar to the Pacific in having the equatorial undercurrent strengthening, but indications of shoaling are less consistent in the reanalyses and the North Equatorial Countercurrent in the Atlantic is not strengthening. Large-scale ocean mixed layer warming trends in the Indian Ocean in the reanalyses are interrupted by some regional cooling close to the equator. Net surface heat flux trends

  11. Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990's. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall `worsened' atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can `over-powers' the `better' ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

  12. Ocean Warming and CO2-Induced Acidification Impact the Lipid Content of a Marine Predatory Gastropod

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roselyn Valles-Regino

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ocean warming and acidification are current global environmental challenges impacting aquatic organisms. A shift in conditions outside the optimal environmental range for marine species is likely to generate stress that could impact metabolic activity, with consequences for the biosynthesis of marine lipids. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in the lipid content of Dicathais orbita exposed to current and predicted future climate change scenarios. The whelks were exposed to a combination of temperature and CO2-induced acidification treatments in controlled flowthrough seawater mesocosms for 35 days. Under current conditions, D. orbita foot tissue has an average of 6 mg lipid/g tissue, but at predicted future ocean temperatures, the total lipid content dropped significantly, to almost half. The fatty acid composition is dominated by polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA 52% with an n-3:6 fatty acid ratio of almost 2, which remains unchanged under future ocean conditions. However, we detected an interactive effect of temperature and pCO2 on the % PUFAs and n-3 and n-6 fatty acids were significantly reduced by elevated water temperature, while both the saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids were significantly reduced under increased pCO2 acidifying conditions. The present study indicates the potential for relatively small predicted changes in ocean conditions to reduce lipid reserves and alter the fatty acid composition of a predatory marine mollusc. This has potential implications for the growth and survivorship of whelks under future conditions, but only minimal implications for human consumption of D. orbita as nutritional seafood are predicted.

  13. Impacts of Ocean Warming on China's Fisheries Catches: An Application of “Mean Temperature of the Catch” Concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Liang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Ocean warming can strongly impact marine fisheries; notably, it can cause the “mean temperature of the catch” (MTC to increase, an indicator of the tropicalization of fisheries catches. In this contribution, we explore MTC changes in three large marine ecosystems (LMEs along China's coasts, i.e., the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea LMEs, and their relationships to shifts of sea surface temperature (SST. The results show that, while the MTCs began to increase in 1962 in the East China Sea and in 1968 in the Yellow Sea, there was no detectable increase in the South China Sea. There also was a strong relationship between MTC and SST in the Yellow and East China Seas from 1950 to 2010, especially when taking a 3-year time-lag into account. The lack of change of the MTC in the South China Sea is attributed to the relatively small increase in SST over the time period considered, and the fact that the MTC of tropical ecosystems such as the South China Sea is not predicted to increase in the first place, given that their fauna cannot be replaced by another, adapted to higher temperature. Overall, these results suggest that ocean warming is already having an impact on China's marine fisheries, and that policies to curtail greenhouse gas emissions are urgently needed to minimize the increase of these impacts on fisheries.

  14. Hot stuff. Global warming as a giant trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunstad, Bjoern

    2007-01-01

    The article presents various aspects of global warming with focus on meteorological data, global discharges, estimated surface temperature increments, ocean level elevations and net warming effects of various human activities. The consequences for the economic and social developments are discussed. Some action possibilities are mentioned. (tk)

  15. Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

    OpenAIRE

    Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W.; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

    2016-01-01

    The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth?s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world?s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previou...

  16. Historical and future trends in ocean climate and biogeochemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doney, Scott C.; Bopp, Laurent; Long, Matthew C.

    2014-01-01

    Changing atmospheric composition due to human activities, primarily carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel burning, is already impacting ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and ecology, and model projections indicate that observed trends will continue or even accelerate over this century. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 alters Earth's radiative balance, leading to global-scale warming and climate change. The ocean stores the majority of resulting anomalous heat, which in turn drives other physical, chemical, and biological impacts. Sea surface warming and increased ocean vertical stratification are projected to reduce global-integrated primary production and export flux as well as to lower subsurface dissolved oxygen concentrations. Upper trophic levels will be affected both directly by warming and indirectly from changes in productivity and expanding low oxygen zones. The ocean also absorbs roughly one-quarter of present-day anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The resulting changes in seawater chemistry, termed ocean acidification, include declining pH and saturation state for calcium carbon minerals that may have widespread impacts on many marine organisms. Climate warming will likely slow ocean CO 2 uptake but is not expected to significantly reduce upper ocean acidification. Improving the accuracy of future model projections requires better observational constraints on current rates of ocean change and a better understanding of the mechanisms controlling key physical and biogeochemical processes. (authors)

  17. Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricke, K L; Caldeira, K; Orr, J C; Schneider, K

    2013-01-01

    Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa 2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results. (letter)

  18. Are climate warming and enhanced atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen threatening tufa landscapes in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, Sichuan, China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Xue; Du, Jie; Lugli, Stefano; Ren, Jinhai; Xiao, Weiyang; Chen, Pan; Tang, Ya

    2016-08-15

    Massive deposition of calcium carbonate in ambient temperature waters (tufa) can form magnificent tufa landscapes, many of which are designated as protected areas. However, tufa landscapes in many areas are threatened by both local anthropogenic activities and climate change. This study, for the first time, posed the question whether the tufa landscape degradation (characterized by tufa degradation and increased biomass of green algae) in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve of China is partially caused by regional air pollution and climate warming. The results indicate that wet deposition (including rain and snow) polluted by anthropogenic SO2, NOx, and NH3 emissions dissolves exposed tufa and may considerably reduce tufa deposition rate and even cause tufa dissolution within shallow waters. These effects of wet deposition on tufa enhanced as pH of wet deposition decreased from 8.01 to 5.06. Annual Volume Weighted Mean concentration of reactive nitrogen (including NH4(+) and NO3(-)) in wet deposition (26.1μmolL(-1)) was 1.8 times of the corresponding value of runoff (14.8μmolL(-1)) and exceeded China's national standard of total nitrogen in runoff for nature reserves (14.3μmolL(-1)), indicating a direct nitrogen fertilization effect of wet deposition on green algae. As water temperature is the major limiting factor of algal growth in Jiuzhaigou and temperature in the top layer (0-5cm) of runoff (depthclimate warming in this region would favor algal growth. In sum, this study suggests that climate warming and enhanced sulfur and nitrogen deposition have contributed to the current degradation of tufa landscape in Jiuzhaigou, but in order to quantify the contributions, further studies are needed, as many other anthropogenic and natural processes also influence tufa landscape evolution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Differences in neurochemical profiles of two gadid species under ocean warming and acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Matthias; Windisch, Heidrun Sigrid; Ludwichowski, Kai-Uwe; Seegert, Sean Lando Levin; Pörtner, Hans-Otto; Storch, Daniela; Bock, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Exposure to future ocean acidification scenarios may alter the behaviour of marine teleosts through interference with neuroreceptor functioning. So far, most studies investigated effects of ocean acidification on the behaviour of fish, either isolated or in combination with environmental temperature. However, only few physiological studies on this issue were conducted despite the putative neurophysiological origin of the CO 2 -induced behavioural changes. Here, we present the metabolic consequences of long-term exposure to projected ocean acidification (396-548 μatm P CO 2 under control and 915-1272 μatm under treatment conditions) and parallel warming in the brain of two related fish species, polar cod ( Boreogadus saida , exposed to 0 °C, 3 °C, 6 °C and 8 °C) and Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua , exposed to 3 °C, 8 °C, 12 °C and 16 °C). It has been shown that B. saida is behaviourally vulnerable to future ocean acidification scenarios, while G. morhua demonstrates behavioural resilience. We found that temperature alters brain osmolyte, amino acid, choline and neurotransmitter concentrations in both species indicating thermal responses particularly in osmoregulation and membrane structure. In B. saida, changes in amino acid and osmolyte metabolism at the highest temperature tested were also affected by CO 2 , possibly emphasizing energetic limitations. We did not observe changes in neurotransmitters, energy metabolites, membrane components or osmolytes that might serve as a compensatory mechanism against CO 2 induced behavioural impairments. In contrast to B. saida , such temperature limitation was not detected in G. morhua ; however, at 8 °C, CO 2 induced an increase in the levels of metabolites of the glutamate/GABA-glutamine cycle potentially indicating greater GABAergic activity in G.morhua . Further, increased availability of energy-rich substrates was detected under these conditions. Our results indicate a change of GABAergic metabolism in

  20. Increased ventilation of Antarctic deep water during the warm mid-Pliocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongshi; Nisancioglu, Kerim H; Ninnemann, Ulysses S

    2013-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene warm period is a recent warm geological period that shares similarities with predictions of future climate. It is generally held the mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must have been stronger, to explain a weak Atlantic meridional δ(13)C gradient and large northern high-latitude warming. However, climate models do not simulate such stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, when forced with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. Proxy reconstructions allow for an alternative scenario that the weak δ(13)C gradient can be explained by increased ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Here this alternative scenario is supported by simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-L), which simulate an intensified and slightly poleward shifted wind field off Antarctica, giving enhanced ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Our findings challenge the prevailing theory and show how increased Southern Ocean ventilation can reconcile existing model-data discrepancies about Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation while explaining fundamental ocean features.

  1. More, smaller bacteria in response to ocean's warming?

    KAUST Repository

    Moran, Xose Anxelu G.

    2015-06-10

    Heterotrophic bacteria play a major role in organic matter cycling in the ocean. Although the high abundances and relatively fast growth rates of coastal surface bacterioplankton make them suitable sentinels of global change, past analyses have largely overlooked this functional group. Here, time series analysis of a decade of monthly observations in temperate Atlantic coastal waters revealed strong seasonal patterns in the abundance, size and biomass of the ubiquitous flow-cytometric groups of low (LNA) and high nucleic acid (HNA) content bacteria. Over this relatively short period, we also found that bacterioplankton cells were significantly smaller, a trend that is consistent with the hypothesized temperature-driven decrease in body size. Although decadal cell shrinking was observed for both groups, it was only LNA cells that were strongly coherent, with ecological theories linking temperature, abundance and individual size on both the seasonal and interannual scale. We explain this finding because, relative to their HNA counterparts, marine LNA bacteria are less diverse, dominated by members of the SAR11 clade. Temperature manipulation experiments in 2012 confirmed a direct effect of warming on bacterial size. Concurrent with rising temperatures in spring, significant decadal trends of increasing standing stocks (3% per year) accompanied by decreasing mean cell size (-1% per year) suggest a major shift in community structure, with a larger contribution of LNA bacteria to total biomass. The increasing prevalence of these typically oligotrophic taxa may severely impact marine foodwebs and carbon fluxes by an overall decrease in the efficiency of the biological pump. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  2. ON THE PAUSED WARMING CONTROVERSY BASED ON IPCC AR5 AND BEYOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIKA J.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paused warming since ca. 2002 (maybe, 1998 is not satisfactorily reflected by the IPCC WGI (2013 Report. The aim of the present study is to collect, present and discuss the key arguments of the issue, selected strictly from this valuable Report. Our study tackles three aspects: (i Symptoms of pausing, including atmospheric changes, near-surface oceans, cryosphere and geographical differences. (ii Possible reasons of the paused warming, including external forcing factors, playing rather minor role, and the enhanced ocean heat uptake. Though missing warming is 0.2 K/decade compared to the model expectations, the whole climate system integrates continuously increasing amount of heat, 95 % of which is locked in the oceans. (iii Consequences of the pausing for the three main branches of the IPCC activity. For climate science, correct simulation of the enhanced heat uptake is a challenge. Since characteristic time scale of most adaptation measures is 1-2 decades, or shorter, near-term projections may not drive adaptation until climate models become able meet this challenge. On the other hand, pausing warming does not question the need for mitigation, since it is physically unlikely, that oceans can uptake endless amount of heat. Vertical temperature gradients of the upper ocean layers already show stagnation.

  3. Characteristics of coupled atmosphere-ocean CO2 sensitivity experiments with different ocean formulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.

    1990-01-01

    The Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research has been coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean model and to a coarse-grid ocean general circulation model (OGCM). This paper compares the responses of simulated climate to increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in these two coupled models. Three types of simulations were run: (1) control runs with both ocean models, with CO 2 held constant at present-day concentrations, (2) instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO 2 (from 330 to 660 ppm) with both ocean models, and (3) a gradually increasing (transient) CO 2 concentration starting at 330 ppm and increasing linearly at 1% per year, with the OGCM. The mixed-layer and OGCM cases exhibit increases of 3.5 C and 1.6 C, respectively, in globally averaged surface air temperature for the instantaneous doubling cases. The transient-forcing case warms 0.7 C by the end of 30 years. The mixed-layer ocean yields warmer-than-observed tropical temperatures and colder-than-observed temperatures in the higher latitudes. The coarse-grid OGCM simulates lower-than-observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics and higher-than-observed SSTs and reduced sea-ice extent at higher latitudes. Sensitivity in the OGCM after 30 years is much lower than in simulations with the same atmosphere coupled to a 50-m slab-ocean mixed layer. The OGCM simulates a weaker thermohaline circulation with doubled CO 2 as the high-latitude ocean-surface layer warms and freshens and the westerly wind stress decreases. Convective overturning in the OGCM decreases substantially with CO 2 warming

  4. Characteristics of coupled atmosphere-ocean CO2 sensitivity experiments with different ocean formulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    The Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research has been coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean model and to a coarse-grid ocean general circulation model (OGCM). This paper compares the responses of simulated climate to increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in these two coupled models. Three types of simulations were run: (1) control runs with both ocean models, with CO 2 held constant at present-day concentrations, (2) instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO 2 (from 330 to 660 ppm) with both ocean models, and (3) a gradually increasing (transient) CO 2 concentration starting at 330 ppm and increasing linearly at 1% per year, with the OGCM. The mixed-layer and OGCM cases exhibit increases of 3.5 C and 1.6 C, respectively, in globally averaged surface air temperature for the instantaneous doubling cases. The transient-forcing case warms 0.7 C by the end of 30 years. The mixed-layer ocean yields warmer-than-observed tropical temperatures and colder-than-observed temperatures in the higher latitudes. The coarse-grid OGCM simulates lower-than-observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics and higher-than-observed SSTs and reduced sea-ice extent at higher latitudes. Sensitivity in the OGCM after 30 years is much lower than in simulations with the same atmosphere coupled to a 50-m slab-ocean mixed layer. The OGCM simulates a weaker thermohaline circulation with doubled CO 2 as the high-latitude ocean-surface layer warms and freshens and the westerly wind stress decreases. Convective overturning in the OGCM decreases substantially with CO 2 warming. 46 refs.; 20 figs.; 1 tab

  5. Global warming and ocean acidification through halted weathering feedback during the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Ploeg, R.; Selby, D. S.; Cramwinckel, M.; Bohaty, S. M.; Sluijs, A.; Middelburg, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) represents a 500 kyr period of global warming 40 million years ago associated with a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but its cause remains enigmatic. Moreover, on the timescale of the MECO, an increase in silicate weathering rates on the continents is expected to balance carbon input and restore the alkalinity of the oceans, but this is in sharp disagreement with observations of extensive carbonate dissolution. Here we show, based on osmium isotope ratios of marine sediments from three different sites, that CO2 rise and warming did not lead to enhanced continental weathering during the MECO, in contrast to expectations from carbon cycle theory. Remarkably, a minor shift to lower, more unradiogenic osmium isotope ratios rather indicates an episode of increased volcanism or reduced continental weathering. This disproves silicate weathering as a geologically constant feedback to CO2 variations. Rather, we suggest that global Early and Middle Eocene warmth diminished the weatherability of continental rocks, ultimately leading to CO2 accumulation during the MECO, and show the plausibility of this scenario using carbon cycle modeling simulations. We surmise a dynamic weathering feedback might explain multiple enigmatic phases of coupled climate and carbon cycle change in the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

  6. Effect of Global Warming and Increased Freshwater Flux on Northern Hemispheric Cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girihagama, L. N.; Nof, D.

    2016-02-01

    We wish to answer the, fairly complicated, question of whether global warming and an increased freshwater flux can cause Northern Hemispheric warming or cooling. Starting from the assumption that the ocean is the primary source of variability in the Northern hemispheric ocean-atmosphere coupled system, we employed a simple non-linear one-dimensional coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The simplicity of the model allows us to analytically predict the evolution of many dynamical variables of interest such as, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperatures of the ocean and atmosphere, mass transports, salinity, and ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes. The model results show that a reduced AMOC transport due to an increased freshwater flux causes cooling in both the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic (NA) deep-water formation region. Cooling in both the ocean and atmosphere can cause reduction of the ocean-atmosphere temperature difference, which in turn reduces heat fluxes in both the ocean and atmosphere. For present day climate parameters, the calculated critical freshwater flux needed to arrest AMOC is 0.08 Sv. For a constant atmospheric zonal flow, there is minimal reduction in the AMOC strength, as well as minimal warming of the ocean and atmosphere. This model provides a conceptual framework for a dynamically sound response of the ocean and atmosphere to AMOC variability as a function of increased freshwater flux. The results are qualitatively consistent with numerous realistic coupled numerical models of varying complexity.

  7. Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, G.; Olsen, S.M.; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing global warming could persist far into the future, because natural processes require decades to hundreds of thousands of years to remove carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel burning from the atmosphere(1-3). Future warming may have large global impacts including ocean oxygen depletion and assoc......Ongoing global warming could persist far into the future, because natural processes require decades to hundreds of thousands of years to remove carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel burning from the atmosphere(1-3). Future warming may have large global impacts including ocean oxygen depletion...... solubility from surface-layer warming accounts for most of the enhanced oxygen depletion in the upper 500 m of the ocean. Possible weakening of ocean overturning and convection lead to further oxygen depletion, also in the deep ocean. We conclude that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel use over the next...

  8. Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

    2012-02-10

    Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

  9. Global warming: A vicious circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

  10. Multiple stressors for oceanic primary production

    KAUST Repository

    Agusti, Susana

    2015-12-15

    Marine ecosystems are increasingly exposed to stress factors of anthropogenic origin that change their function, structure and services they deliver society. Climate change occurs simultaneously with other changes in the environment acting jointly in a context of global environmental change. For oceanic phytoplankton communities, the research conducted so far has identified stress factors associated with global change and their impact individually (warming, acidification, increased UVB radiation, pollutants). But when several stressors act simultaneously interactions and responses are not equal to the sum of individual impacts, but may have synergistic effects (the effects are multiplied) or antagonistic (cancel out the effects) that hinder predictions of the vulnerability of ecosystems to global change. Here we will examine the vulnerability of oceanic primary producers to the accumulation of different stressors associated with global change. The trend for autotrophic picoplankton to increase with temperature in the ocean has led to predictions that autotrophic picoplankton abundance will increase with warming. However, it is documented a trend towards a decline in productivity, due to declined autotroph biomass and production with warming and the associated stratification in the subtropical ocean. Models predicting an increase in abundance are in contradiction with the reported decrease in productivity in several oceanic areas, and associate oligotrophication. Here we perform a global study to analyze the relationships of autotrophic picoplankton with oceanic temperature, nutrients, underwater light and ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, and productivity. We built a model to project the future changes of autotrophic picoplankton considering multiple environmental changes in future climate scenarios for the subtropical gyres. We considered increased water temperature, and associated changes in productivity and underwater light and UVB. The model show that warming and

  11. Multiple stressors for oceanic primary production

    KAUST Repository

    Agusti, Susana; Llabré s, Moira; Lubiá n, Luis M.; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; Estrada, Marta; Duarte, Carlos M.; Cerezo, Maria I.

    2015-01-01

    Marine ecosystems are increasingly exposed to stress factors of anthropogenic origin that change their function, structure and services they deliver society. Climate change occurs simultaneously with other changes in the environment acting jointly in a context of global environmental change. For oceanic phytoplankton communities, the research conducted so far has identified stress factors associated with global change and their impact individually (warming, acidification, increased UVB radiation, pollutants). But when several stressors act simultaneously interactions and responses are not equal to the sum of individual impacts, but may have synergistic effects (the effects are multiplied) or antagonistic (cancel out the effects) that hinder predictions of the vulnerability of ecosystems to global change. Here we will examine the vulnerability of oceanic primary producers to the accumulation of different stressors associated with global change. The trend for autotrophic picoplankton to increase with temperature in the ocean has led to predictions that autotrophic picoplankton abundance will increase with warming. However, it is documented a trend towards a decline in productivity, due to declined autotroph biomass and production with warming and the associated stratification in the subtropical ocean. Models predicting an increase in abundance are in contradiction with the reported decrease in productivity in several oceanic areas, and associate oligotrophication. Here we perform a global study to analyze the relationships of autotrophic picoplankton with oceanic temperature, nutrients, underwater light and ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, and productivity. We built a model to project the future changes of autotrophic picoplankton considering multiple environmental changes in future climate scenarios for the subtropical gyres. We considered increased water temperature, and associated changes in productivity and underwater light and UVB. The model show that warming and

  12. Birth seasonality and offspring production in threatened neotropical primates related to climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiederholt, R.; Post, E.

    2011-01-01

    Given the threatened status of many primate species, the impacts of global warming on primate reproduction and, consequently, population growth should be of concern. We examined relations between climatic variability and birth seasonality, offspring production, and infant sex ratios in two ateline primates, northern muriquis, and woolly monkeys. In both species, the annual birth season was delayed by dry conditions and El Ni??o years, and delayed birth seasons were linked to lower birth rates. Additionally, increased mean annual temperatures were associated with lower birth rates for northern muriquis. Offspring sex ratios varied with climatic conditions in both species, but in different ways: directly in woolly monkeys and indirectly in northern muriquis. Woolly monkeys displayed an increase in the proportion of males among offspring in association with El Ni??o events, whereas in northern muriquis, increases in the proportion of males among offspring were associated with delayed onset of the birth season, which itself was related, although weakly, to warm, dry conditions. These results illustrate that global warming, increased drought frequency, and changes in the frequency of El Ni??o events could limit primate reproductive output, threatening the persistence and recovery of ateline primate populations. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. Complex responses of intertidal molluscan embryos to a warming and acidifying ocean in the presence of UV radiation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew R Davis

    Full Text Available Climate change and ocean acidification will expose marine organisms to synchronous multiple stressors, with early life stages being potentially most vulnerable to changing environmental conditions. We simultaneously exposed encapsulated molluscan embryos to three abiotic stressors-acidified conditions, elevated temperate, and solar UV radiation in large outdoor water tables in a multifactorial design. Solar UV radiation was modified with plastic filters, while levels of the other factors reflected IPCC predictions for near-future change. We quantified mortality and the rate of embryonic development for a mid-shore littorinid, Bembicium nanum, and low-shore opisthobranch, Dolabrifera brazieri. Outcomes were consistent for these model species with embryos faring significantly better at 26°C than 22°C. Mortality sharply increased at the lowest temperature (22°C and lowest pH (7.6 examined, producing a significant interaction. Under these conditions mortality approached 100% for each species, representing a 2- to 4-fold increase in mortality relative to warm (26°C non-acidified conditions. Predictably, development was more rapid at the highest temperature but this again interacted with acidified conditions. Development was slowed under acidified conditions at the lowest temperature. The presence of UV radiation had minimal impact on the outcomes, only slowing development for the littorinid and not interacting with the other factors. Our findings suggest that a warming ocean, at least to a threshold, may compensate for the effects of decreasing pH for some species. It also appears that stressors will interact in complex and unpredictable ways in a changing climate.

  14. Complex Responses of Intertidal Molluscan Embryos to a Warming and Acidifying Ocean in the Presence of UV Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Andrew R.; Coleman, Daniel; Broad, Allison; Byrne, Maria; Dworjanyn, Symon A.; Przeslawski, Rachel

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and ocean acidification will expose marine organisms to synchronous multiple stressors, with early life stages being potentially most vulnerable to changing environmental conditions. We simultaneously exposed encapsulated molluscan embryos to three abiotic stressors—acidified conditions, elevated temperate, and solar UV radiation in large outdoor water tables in a multifactorial design. Solar UV radiation was modified with plastic filters, while levels of the other factors reflected IPCC predictions for near-future change. We quantified mortality and the rate of embryonic development for a mid-shore littorinid, Bembicium nanum, and low-shore opisthobranch, Dolabrifera brazieri. Outcomes were consistent for these model species with embryos faring significantly better at 26°C than 22°C. Mortality sharply increased at the lowest temperature (22°C) and lowest pH (7.6) examined, producing a significant interaction. Under these conditions mortality approached 100% for each species, representing a 2- to 4-fold increase in mortality relative to warm (26°C) non-acidified conditions. Predictably, development was more rapid at the highest temperature but this again interacted with acidified conditions. Development was slowed under acidified conditions at the lowest temperature. The presence of UV radiation had minimal impact on the outcomes, only slowing development for the littorinid and not interacting with the other factors. Our findings suggest that a warming ocean, at least to a threshold, may compensate for the effects of decreasing pH for some species. It also appears that stressors will interact in complex and unpredictable ways in a changing climate. PMID:23405238

  15. Committed warming inferred from observations and an energy balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, R.; Mauritsen, T.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the lifetime of CO2 and thermal inertia of the ocean, the Earth's climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently-improved estimates of Earth's energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the fifth IPCC assessment report. Compared to pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5K [0.9-3.6, 5-95 percentile] at equilibrium, and of 1.3K [0.9-2.3] within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1K [0.7-1.8]. Conservatively, there is a 32% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5K target set in Paris, and that this will likely be crossed prior to 2053. Regular updates of these observationally-constrained committed warming estimates, though simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and understanding the limitations of the framework is advanced.

  16. Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C.L.

    2015-01-01

    Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition ‘worsened' at the same time. The ‘worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the ‘better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling. PMID:25990561

  17. Ocean climate and seal condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crocker Daniel E

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The condition of many marine mammals varies with fluctuations in productivity and food supply in the ocean basin where they forage. Prey is impacted by physical environmental variables such as cyclic warming trends. The weaning weight of northern elephant seal pups, Mirounga angustirostris, being closely linked to maternal condition, indirectly reflects prey availability and foraging success of pregnant females in deep waters of the northeastern Pacific. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of ocean climate on foraging success in this deep-diving marine mammal over the course of three decades, using cohort weaning weight as the principal metric of successful resource accrual. Results The mean annual weaning weight of pups declined from 1975 to the late 1990s, a period characterized by a large-scale, basin-wide warm decadal regime that included multiple strong or long-duration El Niños; and increased with a return to a cool decadal regime from about 1999 to 2004. Increased foraging effort and decreased mass gain of adult females, indicative of reduced foraging success and nutritional stress, were associated with high ocean temperatures. Conclusion Despite ranging widely and foraging deeply in cold waters beyond coastal thermoclines in the northeastern Pacific, elephant seals are impacted significantly by ocean thermal dynamics. Ocean warming redistributes prey decreasing foraging success of females, which in turn leads to lower weaning mass of pups. Annual fluctuations in weaning mass, in turn, reflect the foraging success of females during the year prior to giving birth and signals changes in ocean temperature cycles.

  18. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  19. Coral and mollusc resistance to ocean acidification adversely affected by warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodolfo-Metalpa, R.; Houlbrèque, F.; Tambutté, É.; Boisson, F.; Baggini, C.; Patti, F. P.; Jeffree, R.; Fine, M.; Foggo, A.; Gattuso, J.-P.; Hall-Spencer, J. M.

    2011-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are expectedto decrease surface ocean pH by 0.3-0.5 units by 2100 (refs , ), lowering the carbonate ion concentration of surfacewaters. This rapid acidification is predicted to dramatically decrease calcification in many marine organisms. Reduced skeletal growth under increased CO2 levels has already been shown for corals, molluscs and many other marine organisms. The impact of acidification on the ability of individual species to calcify has remained elusive, however, as measuring net calcification fails to disentangle the relative contributions of gross calcification and dissolution rates on growth. Here, we show that corals and molluscs transplanted along gradients of carbonate saturation state at Mediterranean CO2 vents are able to calcify and grow at even faster than normal rates when exposed to the high CO2 levels projected for the next 300 years. Calcifiers remain at risk, however, owing to the dissolution of exposed shells and skeletons that occurs as pH levels fall. Our results show that tissues and external organic layers play a major role in protecting shells and skeletons from corrosive sea water, limiting dissolution and allowing organisms to calcify. Our combined field and laboratory results demonstrate that the adverse effects of global warming are exacerbated when high temperatures coincide with acidification.

  20. Volcanoes and climate: Krakatoa's signature persists in the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleckler, P J; Wigley, T M L; Santer, B D; Gregory, J M; Achutarao, K; Taylor, K E

    2006-02-09

    We have analysed a suite of 12 state-of-the-art climate models and show that ocean warming and sea-level rise in the twentieth century were substantially reduced by the colossal eruption in 1883 of the volcano Krakatoa in the Sunda strait, Indonesia. Volcanically induced cooling of the ocean surface penetrated into deeper layers, where it persisted for decades after the event. This remarkable effect on oceanic thermal structure is longer lasting than has previously been suspected and is sufficient to offset a large fraction of ocean warming and sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic influences.

  1. Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

    2016-12-02

    Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

  2. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  3. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  4. Global Surface Warming Hiatus Analysis Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data were used to conduct the study of the global surface warming hiatus, an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998....

  5. Correlated Effects of Ocean Acidification and Warming on Behavioral and Metabolic Traits of a Large Pelagic Fish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taryn D. Laubenstein

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Ocean acidification and warming are co-occurring stressors, yet their effects on early life stages of large pelagic fishes are not well known. Here, we determined the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature at levels projected for the end of the century on activity levels, boldness, and metabolic traits (i.e., oxygen uptake rates in larval kingfish (Seriola lalandi, a large pelagic fish with a circumglobal distribution. We also examined correlations between these behavioral and physiological traits measured under different treatments. Kingfish were reared from the egg stage to 25 days post-hatch in a full factorial design of ambient and elevated CO2 (~500 µatm and ~1000 µatm and temperature (21 °C and 25 °C. Activity levels were higher in fish from the elevated temperature treatment compared with fish reared under ambient temperature. However, elevated CO2 did not affect activity, and boldness was not affected by either elevated CO2 or temperature. Both elevated CO2 and temperature resulted in increased resting oxygen uptake rates compared to fish reared under ambient conditions, but neither affected maximum oxygen uptake rates nor aerobic scope. Resting oxygen uptake rates and boldness were negatively correlated under ambient temperature, but positively correlated under elevated temperature. Maximum oxygen uptake rates and boldness were also negatively correlated under ambient temperature. These findings suggest that elevated temperature has a greater impact on behavioral and physiological traits of larval kingfish than elevated CO2. However, elevated CO2 exposure did increase resting oxygen uptake rates and interact with temperature in complex ways. Our results provide novel behavioral and physiological data on the responses of the larval stage of a large pelagic fish to ocean acidification and warming conditions, demonstrate correlations between these traits, and suggest that these correlations could influence the direction and pace of

  6. 75 FR 30769 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Listing of Nine Distinct Population Segments of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-02

    ... Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 50 CFR Parts 223 and 224 RIN 0648-AY49 Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Listing of Nine Distinct Population Segments of Loggerhead Sea Turtles as Endangered or... loggerhead sea turtles as endangered or threatened, which was published on March 16, 2010, until September 13...

  7. Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B; Fischer, Erich M; Knutti, Reto

    2017-05-03

    Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

  8. The future of the oceans past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jeremy B C

    2010-11-27

    Major macroevolutionary events in the history of the oceans are linked to changes in oceanographic conditions and environments on regional to global scales. Even small changes in climate and productivity, such as those that occurred after the rise of the Isthmus of Panama, caused major changes in Caribbean coastal ecosystems and mass extinctions of major taxa. In contrast, massive influxes of carbon at the end of the Palaeocene caused intense global warming, ocean acidification, mass extinction throughout the deep sea and the worldwide disappearance of coral reefs. Today, overfishing, pollution and increases in greenhouse gases are causing comparably great changes to ocean environments and ecosystems. Some of these changes are potentially reversible on very short time scales, but warming and ocean acidification will intensify before they decline even with immediate reduction in emissions. There is an urgent need for immediate and decisive conservation action. Otherwise, another great mass extinction affecting all ocean ecosystems and comparable to the upheavals of the geological past appears inevitable.

  9. Integrated Monitoring of the Soya Warm Current Using HF Ocean Radars, Satellite Altimeters, Coastal Tide Gauges, and a Bottom-Mounted ADCP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebuchi, N.; Fukamachi, Y.; Ohshima, K. I.; Wakatsuchi, M.

    2007-12-01

    The Soya Warm Current (SWC) is a coastal boundary current, which flows along the coast of Hokkaido in the Sea of Okhotsk. The SWC flows into the Sea of Okhotsk from the Sea of Japan through the Soya/La Perouse Strait, which is located between Hokkaido, Japan, and Sakhalin, Russia. It supplies warm, saline water in the Sea of Japan to the Sea of Okhotsk and largely affects the ocean circulation and water mass formation in the Sea of Okhotsk, and local climate, environment and fishery in the region. However, the SWC has never been continuously monitored due to the difficulties involved in field observations related to, for example, severe weather conditions in the winter, political issues at the border strait, and conflicts with fishing activities in the strait. Detailed features of the SWC and its variations have not yet been clarified. In order to monitor variations in the SWC, three HF ocean radar stations were installed around the strait. The radar covers a range of approximately 70 km from the coast. It is shown that the HF radars clearly capture seasonal and subinertial variations of the SWC. The velocity of the SWC reaches its maximum, approximately 1 m/s, in summer, and weakens in winter. The velocity core is located 20 to 30 km from the coast, and its width is approximately 50 km. The surface transport by the Soya Warm Current shows a significant correlation with the sea level difference along the strait, as derived from coastal tide gauge records. The cross-current sea level difference, which is estimated from the sea level anomalies observed by the Jason-1 altimeter and a coastal tide gauge, also exhibits variation in concert with the surface transport and along-current sea level difference.

  10. Prediction on global warming-up. Chikyu ondanka wo yosokusuru

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noda, A [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

    1993-05-01

    This paper introduces models to predict global warming-up caused by greenhouse effect of the earth and increase in greenhouse effect gases, and the prediction results. As a result of CO2 doubling experiments using three-dimensional climate models in predicting the global warming-up, a model that predicted a sharp rise in annual average ground temperatures on the entire earth showed a larger increase in precipitation. According to the result of the CO2 doubling experiments using atmosphere-ocean coupling models, it was learned that the temperature rises higher in high latitude regions rather than rising uniformly over the earth on the whole. The fact that the temperature rise when CO2 has been doubled in a CO2 gradually increasing experiment is smaller than in the doubling experiment can be understood as a delaying effect of oceans generated from their thermal inertia. The former experiment showed a remarkable non-symmetry between the Southern and Northern hemispheres, reflecting the effect of the great oceanic circulation. Increase in cloud amount has an effect of either cooling or warming the earth, but the cooling effect surpasses the warming effect reportedly. Sulfuric acid aerosol in the troposphere is thought to influence the process of solar radiation transmitting through the atmosphere and have an effect to cool down the ground surface. 12 refs., 6 figs.

  11. Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Rheuban, Jennie E.; Luis, Kelly M. A.; Doney, Scott C.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

  12. Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

    2017-04-01

    The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

  13. Next-century ocean acidification and warming both reduce calcification rate, but only acidification alters skeletal morphology of reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, Kimmaree M; Castillo, Karl D; Armstrong, Pualani; Westfield, Isaac T; Courtney, Travis; Ries, Justin B

    2016-07-29

    Atmospheric pCO2 is predicted to rise from 400 to 900 ppm by year 2100, causing seawater temperature to increase by 1-4 °C and pH to decrease by 0.1-0.3. Sixty-day experiments were conducted to investigate the independent and combined impacts of acidification (pCO2 = 424-426, 888-940 ppm-v) and warming (T = 28, 32 °C) on calcification rate and skeletal morphology of the abundant and widespread Caribbean reef-building scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea. Hierarchical linear mixed-effects modelling reveals that coral calcification rate was negatively impacted by both warming and acidification, with their combined effects yielding the most deleterious impact. Negative effects of warming (32 °C/424 ppm-v) and high-temperature acidification (32 °C/940 ppm-v) on calcification rate were apparent across both 30-day intervals of the experiment, while effects of low-temperature acidification (28 °C/888 ppm-v) were not apparent until the second 30-day interval-indicating delayed onset of acidification effects at lower temperatures. Notably, two measures of coral skeletal morphology-corallite height and corallite infilling-were negatively impacted by next-century acidification, but not by next-century warming. Therefore, while next-century ocean acidification and warming will reduce the rate at which corals build their skeletons, next-century acidification will also modify the morphology and, potentially, function of coral skeletons.

  14. Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Gongjie; Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Li, Chongyin

    2018-04-01

    Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300-700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses.

  15. Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

    2015-06-01

    Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

  16. On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beal, L.M.; de Ruijter, W.P.M.; Biastoch, A.; Zahn, R.; SCOR/WCRP/IAPSO Working Group 136; Zinke, J.; Ridderinkhof, H.

    2011-01-01

    The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could

  17. Interacting effects of ocean acidification and warming on growth and DMS-production in the haptophyte coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Hayley E; Kerrison, Philip; Steinke, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The production of the marine trace gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) provides 90% of the marine biogenic sulfur in the atmosphere where it affects cloud formation and climate. The effects of increasing anthropogenic CO2 and the resulting warming and ocean acidification on trace gas production in the oceans are poorly understood. Here we report the first measurements of DMS-production and data on growth, DMSP and DMS concentrations in pH-stated cultures of the phytoplankton haptophyte Emiliania huxleyi. Four different environmental conditions were tested: ambient, elevated CO2 (+CO2 ), elevated temperature (+T) and elevated temperature and CO2 (+TCO2 ). In comparison to the ambient treatment, average DMS production was about 50% lower in the +CO2 treatment. Importantly, temperature had a strong effect on DMS production and the impacts outweighed the effects of a decrease in pH. As a result, the +T and +TCO2 treatments showed significantly higher DMS production of 36.2 ± 2.58 and 31.5 ± 4.66 μmol L(-1) cell volume (CV) h(-1) in comparison with the +CO2 treatment (14.9 ± 4.20 μmol L(-1) CV h(-1) ). As the cultures were aerated with an air/CO2 mixture, DMS was effectively removed from the incubation bottles so that concentration remained relatively low (3.6-6.1 mmol L(-1) CV). Intracellular DMSP has been shown to increase in E. huxleyi as a result of elevated temperature and/or elevated CO2 and our results are in agreement with this finding: the ambient and +CO2 treatments showed 125 ± 20.4 and 162 ± 27.7 mmol L(-1) CV, whereas +T and +TCO2 showed significantly increased intracellular DMSP concentrations of 195 ± 15.8 and 211 ± 28.2 mmol L(-1) CV respectively. Growth was unaffected by the treatments, but cell diameter decreased significantly under elevated temperature. These results indicate that DMS production is sensitive to CO2 and temperature in E. huxleyi. Hence, global environmental change that manifests in ocean acidification and warming may not result in

  18. NW European shelf under climate warming: implications for open ocean – shelf exchange, primary production, and carbon absorption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gröger

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Shelves have been estimated to account for more than one-fifth of the global marine primary production. It has been also conjectured that shelves strongly influence the oceanic absorption of anthropogenic CO2 (carbon shelf pump. Owing to their coarse resolution, currently applied global climate models are inappropriate to investigate the impact of climate change on shelves and regional models do not account for the complex interaction with the adjacent open ocean. In this study, a global ocean general circulation model and biogeochemistry model were set up with a distorted grid providing a maximal resolution for the NW European shelf and the adjacent northeast Atlantic. Using model climate projections we found that already a~moderate warming of about 2.0 K of the sea surface is linked with a reduction by ~ 30% of the biological production on the NW European shelf. If we consider the decline of anthropogenic riverine eutrophication since the 1990s, the reduction of biological production amounts is even larger. The relative decline of NW European shelf productivity is twice as strong as the decline in the open ocean (~ 15%. The underlying mechanism is a spatially well confined stratification feedback along the continental shelf break. This feedback reduces the nutrient supply from the deep Atlantic to about 50%. In turn, the reduced productivity draws down CO2 absorption in the North Sea by ~ 34% at the end of the 21st century compared to the end of the 20th century implying a strong weakening of shelf carbon pumping. Sensitivity experiments with diagnostic tracers indicate that not more than 20% of the carbon absorbed in the North Sea contributes to the long-term carbon uptake of the world ocean. The rest remains within the ocean's mixed layer where it is exposed to the atmosphere. The predicted decline in biological productivity, and decrease of phytoplankton concentration (in the North Sea by averaged 25% due to reduced nutrient imports from

  19. Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification

    OpenAIRE

    McNeil, Ben I.; Matear, Richard J.

    2011-01-01

    Oceanic anthropogenic CO2 uptake will decrease both the pH and the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) of seawater leading to an oceanic acidification. However, the factors controlling future changes in pH and Ωarag are independent and will respond differently to oceanic climate change feedbacks such as ocean warming, circulation and biological changes. We examine the sensitivity of these two CO2-related parameters to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The ocean ...

  20. Sea urchins in a high-CO2 world: partitioned effects of body size, ocean warming and acidification on metabolic rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Nicholas; Harianto, Januar; Byrne, Maria

    2016-04-15

    Body size and temperature are the major factors explaining metabolic rate, and the additional factor of pH is a major driver at the biochemical level. These three factors have frequently been found to interact, complicating the formulation of broad models predicting metabolic rates and hence ecological functioning. In this first study of the effects of warming and ocean acidification, and their potential interaction, on metabolic rate across a broad range in body size (two to three orders of magnitude difference in body mass), we addressed the impact of climate change on the sea urchin ITALIC! Heliocidaris erythrogrammain context with climate projections for southeast Australia, an ocean warming hotspot. Urchins were gradually introduced to two temperatures (18 and 23°C) and two pH levels (7.5 and 8.0), at which they were maintained for 2 months. Identical experimental trials separated by several weeks validated the fact that a new physiological steady state had been reached, otherwise known as acclimation. The relationship between body size, temperature and acidification on the metabolic rate of ITALIC! H. erythrogrammawas strikingly stable. Both stressors caused increases in metabolic rate: 20% for temperature and 19% for pH. Combined effects were additive: a 44% increase in metabolism. Body size had a highly stable relationship with metabolic rate regardless of temperature or pH. None of these diverse drivers of metabolism interacted or modulated the effects of the others, highlighting the partitioned nature of how each influences metabolic rate, and the importance of achieving a full acclimation state. Despite these increases in energetic demand there was very limited capacity for compensatory modulating of feeding rate; food consumption increased only in the very smallest specimens, and only in response to temperature, and not pH. Our data show that warming, acidification and body size all substantially affect metabolism and are highly consistent and

  1. Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

    2016-01-01

    Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

  2. 77 FR 31835 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-30

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC049 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS..., 2012. Angela Somma, Chief, Endangered Species Division, Office of Protected Resources, National Marine...

  3. 76 FR 49735 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-11

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA631 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS.... Therese Conant, Acting Chief, Endangered Species Division, Office of Protected Resources, National Marine...

  4. The metabolic response of marine copepods to environmental warming and ocean acidification in the absence of food

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayor, Daniel J.; Sommer, Ulf; Cook, Kathryn B.; Viant, Mark R.

    2015-09-01

    Marine copepods are central to the productivity and biogeochemistry of marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, the direct and indirect effects of climate change on their metabolic functioning remain poorly understood. Here, we use metabolomics, the unbiased study of multiple low molecular weight organic metabolites, to examine how the physiology of Calanus spp. is affected by end-of-century global warming and ocean acidification scenarios. We report that the physiological stresses associated with incubation without food over a 5-day period greatly exceed those caused directly by seawater temperature or pH perturbations. This highlights the need to contextualise the results of climate change experiments by comparison to other, naturally occurring stressors such as food deprivation, which is being exacerbated by global warming. Protein and lipid metabolism were up-regulated in the food-deprived animals, with a novel class of taurine-containing lipids and the essential polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid, changing significantly over the duration of our experiment. Copepods derive these PUFAs by ingesting diatoms and flagellated microplankton respectively. Climate-driven changes in the productivity, phenology and composition of microplankton communities, and hence the availability of these fatty acids, therefore have the potential to influence the ability of copepods to survive starvation and other environmental stressors.

  5. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Decreasing, Jan, 08, 1998

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Jan. 8, 1998, and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The volume of the warm water pool related to the El Nino has decreased by about 40 percent since its maximum in early November, but the area of the warm water pool is still about one and a half times the size of the continental United States. The volume measurements are computed as the sum of all the sea surface height changes as compared to normal ocean conditions. In addition, the maximum water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is still higher than normal. Until these high temperatures diminish, the El Nino warm water pool still has great potential to disrupt global weather because the high water temperatures directly influence the atmosphere. Oceanographers believe the recent decrease in the size of the warm water pool is a normal part of El Nino's natural rhythm. TOPEX/Poseidon has been tracking these fluctuations of the El Nino warm pool since it began in early 1997. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with their first detailed view of how El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken

  6. 76 FR 5338 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-31

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA183 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... regulations (50 CFR parts 222-226) governing listed fish and wildlife permits. [[Page 5339

  7. 78 FR 77659 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-24

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XD040 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... NMFS regulations (50 CFR parts 222-226) governing listed fish and wildlife permits. [[Page 77660...

  8. 76 FR 6401 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-04

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA110 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... and the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife submitted to NMFS, pursuant to the protective...

  9. 78 FR 4834 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-23

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC444 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... species. Dated: January 16, 2013. Angela Somma, Chief, Endangered Species Division, Office of Protected...

  10. 75 FR 25205 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-07

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XW33 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... permit. Dated: May 4, 2010. Therese Conant, Acting Chief, Endangered Species Division, Office of...

  11. 77 FR 67796 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-14

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC342 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... NMFS regulations governing listed fish and wildlife permits (50 CFR parts 222-226). Those individuals...

  12. Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B.; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

    2017-05-01

    Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

  13. On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

    2018-03-01

    Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

  14. Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

    2011-01-01

    Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research.

  15. Mineralization and carbon turnover in subarctic heath soil as affected by warming and additional litter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinnan, Riikka; Michelsen, Anders; Baath, Erland

    2007-01-01

    Arctic soil carbon (C) stocks are threatened by the rapidly advancing global warming. In addition to temperature, increasing amounts of leaf litter fall following from the expansion of deciduous shrubs and trees in northern ecosystems may alter biogeochemical cycling of C and nutrients. Our aim w...... on C and N transformations during field incubation suggest that microbial activity is an important control on the carbon balance of arctic soils under climate change.......Arctic soil carbon (C) stocks are threatened by the rapidly advancing global warming. In addition to temperature, increasing amounts of leaf litter fall following from the expansion of deciduous shrubs and trees in northern ecosystems may alter biogeochemical cycling of C and nutrients. Our aim...

  16. 76 FR 5339 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-31

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA182 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... are issued in accordance with and are subject to the ESA and NMFS regulations governing listed fish...

  17. 76 FR 78242 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA866 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... Endangered Species Act (ESA) and to help guide management and conservation efforts. The application may be...

  18. 78 FR 23222 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-18

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC630 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... CFR parts 222-226) governing listed fish and wildlife permits. Species Covered in This Notice This...

  19. Shallow methylmercury production in the marginal sea ice zone of the central Arctic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimbürger, Lars-Eric; Sonke, Jeroen E; Cossa, Daniel; Point, David; Lagane, Christelle; Laffont, Laure; Galfond, Benjamin T; Nicolaus, Marcel; Rabe, Benjamin; van der Loeff, Michiel Rutgers

    2015-05-20

    Methylmercury (MeHg) is a neurotoxic compound that threatens wildlife and human health across the Arctic region. Though much is known about the source and dynamics of its inorganic mercury (Hg) precursor, the exact origin of the high MeHg concentrations in Arctic biota remains uncertain. Arctic coastal sediments, coastal marine waters and surface snow are known sites for MeHg production. Observations on marine Hg dynamics, however, have been restricted to the Canadian Archipelago and the Beaufort Sea (Ocean (79-90 °N) profiles for total mercury (tHg) and MeHg. We find elevated tHg and MeHg concentrations in the marginal sea ice zone (81-85 °N). Similar to other open ocean basins, Arctic MeHg concentration maxima also occur in the pycnocline waters, but at much shallower depths (150-200 m). The shallow MeHg maxima just below the productive surface layer possibly result in enhanced biological uptake at the base of the Arctic marine food web and may explain the elevated MeHg concentrations in Arctic biota. We suggest that Arctic warming, through thinning sea ice, extension of the seasonal sea ice zone, intensified surface ocean stratification and shifts in plankton ecodynamics, will likely lead to higher marine MeHg production.

  20. Wind changes above warm Agulhas Current eddies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Roualt, M

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Sea-surface temperature (SST), altimetry derived sea-level anomalies (SLA) and surface current are used south of the Agulhas Current to identify warm core mesoscale ocean eddies presenting a distinct SST perturbation superior to 1(supo...

  1. Climate change and the oceans--what does the future hold?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijma, Jelle; Pörtner, Hans-O; Yesson, Chris; Rogers, Alex D

    2013-09-30

    The ocean has been shielding the earth from the worst effects of rapid climate change by absorbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO2 is driving the ocean along the pH gradient towards more acidic conditions. At the same time ocean warming is having pronounced impacts on the composition, structure and functions of marine ecosystems. Warming, freshening (in some areas) and associated stratification are driving a trend in ocean deoxygenation, which is being enhanced in parts of the coastal zone by upwelling of hypoxic deep water. The combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing. The interactive effects of this deadly trio mirrors similar events in the Earth's past, which were often coupled with extinctions of major species' groups. Here we review the observed impacts and, using past episodes in the Earth's history, set out what the future may hold if carbon emissions and climate change are not significantly reduced with more or less immediate effect. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Constraining the trigger for an ancient warming episode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-08-01

    The Paleocene epoch (˜66-56 million years ago) was sandwiched between sudden climate shifts and mass extinctions. The boundary between the end of the Paleocene and the beginning of the Eocene (the P-E boundary) saw the global average temperature soar by 5°C over a few thousand years, leading to a pronounced reorganization of both terrestrial and oceanic plant and animal communities. The P-E boundary warming was triggered by an influx of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the influx's ultimate trigger is still being debated. Other prominent warming events within the Paleogene (˜66-23 million years ago), the broad time span that encompasses the Paleocene and Eocene, have been linked to regularly recurring changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit that take place on 100,000- and 405,000-year cycles. Proponents of this view suggest that an alignment of the two cycles could lead to the warming of deep ocean waters, melting frozen methane and triggering an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, some studies have suggested that the P-E boundary warming was instead the product of geological processes, where carbon-rich rocks were baked by injected magma, which eventually liberated the carbon to the atmosphere. Deciding between proposed explanations for the cause of the P-E warming, whether they are astronomical or geological, depends on accurately pinning the event in time. (Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, doi:10.1029/2010GC003426, 2011)

  3. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment

  4. 78 FR 31518 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-24

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC690 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW), Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), and U.S. Bureau of...

  5. 77 FR 2037 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-13

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA928 Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... advises the public that a direct take permit has been issued to the Washington Department of Fish and...

  6. Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.

    2018-03-01

    Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

  7. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Increasing, Nov. 10, 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Nov. 10, 1997. The volume of extra warm surface water (shown in white) in the core of the El Nino continues to increase, especially in the area between 15 degrees south latitude and 15 degrees north latitude in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The area of low sea level (shown in purple) has decreased somewhat from late October. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 centimeters and 32 cm (6 inches to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it is about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one-and-one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21 to 30 degrees Celsius (70 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white areas) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmospheric system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

  8. Impacts of marine instability across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on Southern Ocean dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Phipps

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent observations and modelling studies have demonstrated the potential for rapid and substantial retreat of large sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS. This has major implications for ocean circulation and global sea level. Here we examine the effects of increasing meltwater from the Wilkes Basin, one of the major marine-based sectors of the EAIS, on Southern Ocean dynamics. Climate model simulations reveal that the meltwater flux rapidly stratifies surface waters, leading to a dramatic decrease in the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW formation. The surface ocean cools but, critically, the Southern Ocean warms by more than 1 °C at depth. This warming is accompanied by a Southern Ocean-wide “domino effect”, whereby the warming signal propagates westward with depth. Our results suggest that melting of one sector of the EAIS could result in accelerated warming across other sectors, including the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Thus, localised melting of the EAIS could potentially destabilise the wider Antarctic Ice Sheet.

  9. Surviving Armageddon - Solutions for a Threatened Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Bill

    2005-07-01

    What do earthquakes, magma, asteroid 1950DA, and global warming have in common? All are very real natural disasters, already under way; all are also the focus of intensive work by scientists, aimed at preventing, predicting, or at least limiting their impact on civilization. Using the latest chilling data and taking care to draw a clear line between scientific fact and fiction, McGuire discusses the various ways that scientists have already started to prepare for survival. Solutions on earth range from 'space reflectors' to prevent global warming, to pressure-relieving 'robot excavators' to stop volcanic eruptions. In space, NASA is developing rocket motors to gently nudge asteroids out of Earth's path, and plans to have all threatening asteroids larger than 1km detected by 2008, thereby enabling us to predict possible collisions up to 2880. The book provides the strategies to the problems we face, and concludes optimistically with ways in which we can use technology to protect our society and planet from global catastrophe.

  10. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Raitsos, D. E.

    2011-07-19

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  11. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

    2011-07-01

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  12. The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Krapp

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available We present simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The model is insofar more consistent than previous models because it captures the essential interactions between ocean and atmosphere and between atmosphere and vegetation. The Middle Miocene topography, which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations, causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present day. Higher than present-day CO2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K. The associated water vapour feedback enhances the greenhouse effect which leads to a polar amplification of the warming. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO2 levels are necessary to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate, also because the dynamic vegetation model simulates a denser vegetation which is in line with fossil records. However, we do not find a flatter than present-day equator-to-pole temperature gradient as has been suggested by marine and terrestrial proxies. Instead, a compensation between atmospheric and ocean heat transport counteracts the flattening of the temperature gradient. The acclaimed role of the large-scale ocean circulation in redistributing heat cannot be supported by our results. Including full ocean dynamics, therefore, does not solve the problem of the flat temperature gradient during the Middle Miocene.

  13. PHYSIOLOGICAL RESPONSES OF ECKLONIA RADIATA (LAMINARIALES) TO A LATITUDINAL GRADIENT IN OCEAN TEMPERATURE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Peter Anton; Wernberg, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    We tested the ability of sporophytes of a small kelp, Ecklonia radiata (C. Agardh) J. Agardh, to adjust their photosynthesis, respiration, and cellular processes to increasingly warm ocean climates along a latitudinal gradient in ocean temperature (~4°C). Tissue concentrations of pigment and nutr......We tested the ability of sporophytes of a small kelp, Ecklonia radiata (C. Agardh) J. Agardh, to adjust their photosynthesis, respiration, and cellular processes to increasingly warm ocean climates along a latitudinal gradient in ocean temperature (~4°C). Tissue concentrations of pigment...... and nutrients decreased with increasing ocean temperature. Concurrently, a number of gradual changes in the metabolic balance of E. radiata took place along the latitudinal gradient. Warm-acclimatized kelps had 50% lower photosynthetic rates and 90% lower respiration rates at the optimum temperature than did...... cool-acclimatized kelps. A reduction in temperature sensitivity was also observed as a reduction in Q10-values from cool- to warm-acclimatized kelps for gross photosynthesis (Q10: 3.35 to 1.45) and respiration (Q10: 3.82 to 1.65). Respiration rates were more sensitive to increasing experimental...

  14. 76 FR 14923 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-18

    ... and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... knowledge of species listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and help guide management and... harvested groundfish species. The survey would collect data on 90+ fish species in the ocean to fulfill the...

  15. Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas A J Graham

    Full Text Available Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change.

  16. Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; McClanahan, Tim R; MacNeil, M Aaron; Wilson, Shaun K; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Jennings, Simon; Chabanet, Pascale; Clark, Susan; Spalding, Mark D; Letourneur, Yves; Bigot, Lionel; Galzin, René; Ohman, Marcus C; Garpe, Kajsa C; Edwards, Alasdair J; Sheppard, Charles R C

    2008-08-27

    Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change.

  17. Ocean (de)oxygenation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the twenty-first century: insights from Earth System models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bopp, L.; Resplandy, L.; Untersee, A.; Le Mezo, P.; Kageyama, M.

    2017-08-01

    All Earth System models project a consistent decrease in the oxygen content of oceans for the coming decades because of ocean warming, reduced ventilation and increased stratification. But large uncertainties for these future projections of ocean deoxygenation remain for the subsurface tropical oceans where the major oxygen minimum zones are located. Here, we combine global warming projections, model-based estimates of natural short-term variability, as well as data and model estimates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ocean oxygenation to gain some insights into the major mechanisms of oxygenation changes across these different time scales. We show that the primary uncertainty on future ocean deoxygenation in the subsurface tropical oceans is in fact controlled by a robust compensation between decreasing oxygen saturation (O2sat) due to warming and decreasing apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) due to increased ventilation of the corresponding water masses. Modelled short-term natural variability in subsurface oxygen levels also reveals a compensation between O2sat and AOU, controlled by the latter. Finally, using a model simulation of the LGM, reproducing data-based reconstructions of past ocean (de)oxygenation, we show that the deoxygenation trend of the subsurface ocean during deglaciation was controlled by a combination of warming-induced decreasing O2sat and increasing AOU driven by a reduced ventilation of tropical subsurface waters. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

  18. Ocean (de)oxygenation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the twenty-first century: insights from Earth System models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bopp, L; Resplandy, L; Untersee, A; Le Mezo, P; Kageyama, M

    2017-09-13

    All Earth System models project a consistent decrease in the oxygen content of oceans for the coming decades because of ocean warming, reduced ventilation and increased stratification. But large uncertainties for these future projections of ocean deoxygenation remain for the subsurface tropical oceans where the major oxygen minimum zones are located. Here, we combine global warming projections, model-based estimates of natural short-term variability, as well as data and model estimates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ocean oxygenation to gain some insights into the major mechanisms of oxygenation changes across these different time scales. We show that the primary uncertainty on future ocean deoxygenation in the subsurface tropical oceans is in fact controlled by a robust compensation between decreasing oxygen saturation (O 2sat ) due to warming and decreasing apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) due to increased ventilation of the corresponding water masses. Modelled short-term natural variability in subsurface oxygen levels also reveals a compensation between O 2sat and AOU, controlled by the latter. Finally, using a model simulation of the LGM, reproducing data-based reconstructions of past ocean (de)oxygenation, we show that the deoxygenation trend of the subsurface ocean during deglaciation was controlled by a combination of warming-induced decreasing O 2sat and increasing AOU driven by a reduced ventilation of tropical subsurface waters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  19. Global Warming and the Microwave Background

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available In the work, the importance of assigning the microwave background to the Earth is ad- dressed while emphasizing the consequences for global climate change. Climate mod- els can only produce meaningful forecasts when they consider the real magnitude of all radiative processes. The oceans and continents both contribute to terrestrial emis- sions. However, the extent of oceanic radiation, particularly in the microwave region, raises concerns. This is not only since the globe is covered with water, but because the oceans themselves are likely to be weaker emitters than currently believed. Should the microwave background truly be generated by the oceans of the Earth, our planet would be a much less efficient emitter of radiation in this region of the electromagnetic spectrum. Furthermore, the oceans would appear unable to increase their emissions in the microwave in response to temperature elevation, as predicted by Stefan’s law. The results are significant relative to the modeling of global warming.

  20. Oceanic an climatic consequences of a sudden large-scale West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarff, Katie; Green, Mattias; Schmittner, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    Atmospheric warming is progressing to the point where the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will experience an elevated rate of discharge. The current discharge rate of WAIS is around 0.005Sv, but this rate will most likely accelerate over this century. The input of freshwater, in the form of ice, may have a profound effect on oceanic circulation systems, including potentially reducing the formation of deep water in the Southern Ocean and thus triggering or enhancing the bipolar seesaw. Using UVic - an intermediate complexity ocean-climate model - we investigate how various hosing rates from the WAIS will impact of the present and future ocean circulation and climate. These scenarios range from observed hosing rates (~0.005Sv) being applied for 100 years, to a total collapse of the WAIS over the next 100 years (the equivalent to a0.7Sv hosing). We show that even the present day observed rates can have a significant impact on the ocean and atmospheric temperatures, and that the bipolar seesaw may indeed be enhanced by the Southern Ocean hosing. Consequently, there is a speed-up of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) early on during the hosing, which leads to a warming over the North Atlantic, and a subsequent reduction in the MOC on centennial scales. The larger hosing cases show more dramatic effects with near-complete shutdowns of the MOC during the hosing. Furthermore, global warming scenarios based on the IPCC "business as usual" scenario show that the atmospheric warming will change the response of the ocean to Southern Ocean hosing and that the warming will dominate the perturbation. The potential feedback between changes in the ocean stratification in the scenarios and tidally driven abyssal mixing via tidal conversion is also explored.

  1. Causes of strong ocean heating during glacial periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimov, N.; Zimov, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    During the last deglaciation period, the strongest climate changes occurred across the North Atlantic regions. Analyses of borehole temperatures from the Greenland ice sheet have yielded air temperature change estimates of 25°C over the deglaciation period (Dahl-Jensen et al. 1998). Such huge temperature changes cannot currently be explained in the frames of modern knowledge about climate. We propose that glacial-interglacial cycles are connected with gradual warming of ocean interior waters over the course of glaciations and quick transport of accumulated heat from ocean to the atmosphere during the deglaciation periods. Modern day ocean circulation is dominated by thermal convection with cold waters subsiding in the Northern Atlantic and filling up the ocean interior with cold and heavy water. However during the glaciation thermal circulation stopped and ocean circulation was driven by 'haline pumps' -Red and Mediterranean seas connected with ocean with only narrow but deep straights acts as evaporative basins, separating ocean water into fresh water which returns to the ocean surface (precipitation) and warm but salty, and therefore heavy, water which flows down to the ocean floor. This haline pump is stratifying the ocean, allowing warmer water locate under the colder water and thus stopping thermal convection in the ocean. Additional ocean interior warming is driven by geothermal heat flux and decomposition of organic rain. To test the hypothesis we present simple ocean box model that describes thermohaline circulation in the World Ocean. The first box is the Red and Mediterranean sea, the second is united high-latitude seas, the third is the ocean surface, and the fourth the ocean interior. The volume of these water masses and straight cross-sections are taken to be close to real values. We have accepted that the exchange of water between boxes is proportional to the difference in water density in these boxes, Sun energy inputs to the ocean and sea surface

  2. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  3. Astrochronology of extreme global warming events during the early Eocene greenhouse climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauretano, V.

    2016-01-01

    The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of enhanced global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system and the relationship between carbon cycling and climate. During this time interval, the Earth’s surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of

  4. The Oceans 2015 Initiative, Part I - An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on physical and biological processes in the oceans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howes, Ella L.; Joos, Fortunat; Eakin, Mark; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    The oceans have absorbed approximately 93% of the excess heat caused by global warming. Warming increases stratification, limiting the circulation of nutrients from deep waters to the surface. There is evidence that enhanced stratification and increasing temperature are causing a decline in dissolved oxygen concentration and expanding existing oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Approximately 26% of anthropogenic CO 2 is absorbed by the oceans, resulting in a reduction in pH and carbonate ion concentration, termed ocean acidification. Anthropogenic CO 2 has caused global ocean pH to decrease by 0.1 units since the start of the Industrial Revolution. The ocean ecosystems are responding to the changing environment, but at different rates and magnitudes and with interspecific and geographic variation in responses. Warming causes shifts in species' geographic distribution, abundance, migration patterns and phenology. Organisms that produce shells and skeletons from calcium carbonate are at most risk from ocean acidification as it lowers the saturation state of the mineral, favouring a dissolution reaction. To date, there are few observations of ocean acidification effects in natural communities; however, experimental evidence suggests that the risk to ecosystems will increase over the coming decades. Decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations and expanding OMZs will favour anaerobic metabolisers such as bacteria and small microbes whilst reducing habitat for larger, oxygen dependent organisms. The interaction of multiple drivers can amplify or alleviate each other's effects. It is likely that marine organisms will experience a combination of warming, acidification and declining oxygen concentrations as well as regionally specific local stressors. This makes it difficult to predict the responses of individual species to multiple drivers, and species interactions make ecosystem- based projections challenging. Using the available evidence, projections have been

  5. Association between mean and interannual equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface temperature bias in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, G.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Prasad, K. V. S. R.; Karmakar, Ananya; Parekh, Anant

    2018-03-01

    In the present study the association between mean and interannual subsurface temperature bias over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) is investigated during boreal summer (June through September; JJAS) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. Anomalously high subsurface warm bias (greater than 3 °C) over the eastern EIO (EEIO) region is noted in CFSv2 during summer, which is higher compared to other parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. Prominent eastward current bias in the upper 100 m over the EIO region induced by anomalous westerly winds is primarily responsible for subsurface temperature bias. The eastward currents transport warm water to the EEIO and is pushed down to subsurface due to downwelling. Thus biases in both horizontal and vertical currents over the EIO region support subsurface warm bias. The evolution of systematic subsurface warm bias in the model shows strong interannual variability. These maximum subsurface warming episodes over the EEIO are mainly associated with La Niña like forcing. Strong convergence of low level winds over the EEIO and Maritime continent enhanced the westerly wind bias over the EIO during maximum warming years. This low level convergence of wind is induced by the bias in the gradient in the mean sea level pressure with positive bias over western EIO and negative bias over EEIO and parts of western Pacific. Consequently, changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with La Niña like conditions affected the ocean dynamics by modulating the current bias thereby enhancing the subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. It is identified that EEIO subsurface warming is stronger when La Niña co-occurred with negative Indian Ocean Dipole events as compared to La Niña only years in the model. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments forced with CFSv2 winds clearly support our hypothesis that ocean dynamics influenced by westerly winds bias is primarily

  6. Will open ocean oxygen stress intensify under climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    A. Gnanadesikan; J. P. Dunne; J. John

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full earth system model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become...

  7. The warm pool in the Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vinayachandran, P.N.; Shetye, S.R.

    is larger and warmer, a peculiarity of the pool in the Indian Ocean is its seasonal variation. The surface area of the pool changes from 24 x 106 km2 in April to 8 x 106 km2 in September due to interaction with the southwest monsoon. The annual cycles of sea...

  8. Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

  9. Intraspecific variation in physiological performance of a benthic elasmobranch challenged by ocean acidification and warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Santo, Valentina

    2016-06-01

    Elucidating the combined effects of increasing temperature and ocean acidification on performance of fishes is central to our understanding of how species will respond to global climate change. Measuring the metabolic costs associated with intense and short activities, such as those required to escape predators, is key to quantifying changes in performance and estimating the potential effects of environmental stressors on survival. In this study, juvenile little skate Leucoraja erinacea from two neighboring locations (Gulf of Maine, or northern location, and Georges Bank, or southern location) were developmentally acclimatized and reared at current and projected temperatures (15, 18 or 20°C) and acidification conditions (pH 8.1 or 7.7), and their escape performance was tested by employing a chasing protocol. The results from this study suggest countergradient variation in growth between skates from the two locations, while the optimum for escape performance was at a lower temperature in individuals from the northern latitudes, which could be related to adaptation to the local thermal environment. Aerobic performance and scope declined in skates from the northern latitudes under simulated ocean warming and acidification conditions. Overall, the southern skates showed lower sensitivity to these climatic stressors. This study demonstrates that even mobile organisms from neighboring locations can exhibit substantial differences in energetic costs of exercise and that skates from the northern part of the geographic range may be more sensitive to the directional increase in temperature and acidification expected by the end of the century. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  10. Implications of Warm Rain in Shallow Cumulus and Congestus Clouds for Large-Scale Circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijens, Louise; Emanuel, Kerry; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan

    2017-11-01

    Space-borne observations reveal that 20-40% of marine convective clouds below the freezing level produce rain. In this paper we speculate what the prevalence of warm rain might imply for convection and large-scale circulations over tropical oceans. We present results using a two-column radiative-convective model of hydrostatic, nonlinear flow on a non-rotating sphere, with parameterized convection and radiation, and review ongoing efforts in high-resolution modeling and observations of warm rain. The model experiments investigate the response of convection and circulation to sea surface temperature (SST) gradients between the columns and to changes in a parameter that controls the conversion of cloud condensate to rain. Convection over the cold ocean collapses to a shallow mode with tops near 850 hPa, but a congestus mode with tops near 600 hPa can develop at small SST differences when warm rain formation is more efficient. Here, interactive radiation and the response of the circulation are crucial: along with congestus a deeper moist layer develops, which leads to less low-level radiative cooling, a smaller buoyancy gradient between the columns, and therefore a weaker circulation and less subsidence over the cold ocean. The congestus mode is accompanied with more surface precipitation in the subsiding column and less surface precipitation in the deep convecting column. For the shallow mode over colder oceans, circulations also weaken with more efficient warm rain formation, but only marginally. Here, more warm rain reduces convective tops and the boundary layer depth—similar to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) studies—which reduces the integrated buoyancy gradient. Elucidating the impact of warm rain can benefit from large-domain high-resolution simulations and observations. Parameterizations of warm rain may be constrained through collocated cloud and rain profiling from ground, and concurrent changes in convection and rain in subsiding and convecting branches of

  11. Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    1999-01-01

    The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface

  12. Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

    2014-08-01

    So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid spacings of 0.44, 0.22, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

  13. Comparing and contrasting Holocene and Eemian warm periods with greenhouse-gas-induced warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCracken, M.C.; Kutzbach, J.

    1990-01-01

    Periods of the past that are estimated to have been warmer than present are of great potential interest for comparison with simulations of future climates associated with greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Certain features of the climates of the mid-Holocene and Eemian periods, both interglacial maxima, are described. The simulated climatic responses to both types of forcing, in terms of land/ocean and latitudinal averages, are also compared. The zonal average and annual (or seasonal) average radiation fluxes associated with the different-from-present orbital conditions that existed for those interglacials are compared to the radiation flux associated with CO 2 -induced warming. There are some similarities but also significant differences in the two types of radiation flux perturbations, and there are both similarities and differences in the simulated climatic responses

  14. The influence of meridional ice transport on Europa's ocean stratification and heat content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, P.; Manucharyan, G.; Thompson, A. F.; Goodman, J. C.; Vance, S.

    2017-12-01

    Jupiter's moon Europa likely hosts a saltwater ocean beneath its icy surface. Geothermal heating and rotating convection in the ocean may drive a global overturning circulation that redistributes heat vertically and meridionally, preferentially warming the ice shell at the equator. Here we assess thepreviously unconstrained influence of ocean-ice coupling on Europa's ocean stratification and heat transport. We demonstrate that a relatively fresh layer can form at the ice-ocean interface due to a meridional ice transport forced by the differential ice shell heating between the equator and the poles. We provide analytical and numerical solutions for the layer's characteristics, highlighting their sensitivity to critical ocean parameters. For a weakly turbulent and highly saline ocean, a strong buoyancy gradient at the base of the freshwater layer can suppress vertical tracer exchange with the deeper ocean. As a result, the freshwater layer permits relatively warm deep ocean temperatures.

  15. Southern ocean warming, sea level and hydrological change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sluijs

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A brief (~150 kyr period of widespread global average surface warming marks the transition between the Paleocene and Eocene epochs, ~56 million years ago. This so-called "Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum" (PETM is associated with the massive injection of 13C-depleted carbon, reflected in a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE. Biotic responses include a global abundance peak (acme of the subtropical dinoflagellate Apectodinium. Here we identify the PETM in a marine sedimentary sequence deposited on the East Tasman Plateau at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP Site 1172 and show, based on the organic paleothermometer TEX86, that southwest Pacific sea surface temperatures increased from ~26 °C to ~33°C during the PETM. Such temperatures before, during and after the PETM are >10 °C warmer than predicted by paleoclimate model simulations for this latitude. In part, this discrepancy may be explained by potential seasonal biases in the TEX86 proxy in polar oceans. Additionally, the data suggest that not only Arctic, but also Antarctic temperatures may be underestimated in simulations of ancient greenhouse climates by current generation fully coupled climate models. An early influx of abundant Apectodinium confirms that environmental change preceded the CIE on a global scale. Organic dinoflagellate cyst assemblages suggest a local decrease in the amount of river run off reaching the core site during the PETM, possibly in concert with eustatic rise. Moreover, the assemblages suggest changes in seasonality of the regional hydrological system and storm activity. Finally, significant variation in dinoflagellate cyst assemblages during the PETM indicates that southwest Pacific climates varied significantly over time scales of 103 – 104 years during this event, a finding comparable to similar studies of PETM successions from the New Jersey Shelf.

  16. Molecular Plasticity under Ocean Warming: Proteomics and Fitness Data Provides Clues for a Better Understanding of the Thermal Tolerance in Fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madeira, Diana; Araújo, José E; Vitorino, Rui; Costa, Pedro M; Capelo, José L; Vinagre, Catarina; Diniz, Mário S

    2017-01-01

    Ocean warming is known to alter the performance and fitness of marine organisms albeit the proteome underpinnings of species thermal tolerance are still largely unknown. In this 1-month experiment we assessed the vulnerability of the gilt-head sea bream Sparus aurata , taken here as a biological model for some key fisheries species, to ocean warming (control 18°C, nursery ground temperature 24°C and heat wave 30°C). Survival was impaired after 28 days, mainly at 30°C although fishes' condition was unaltered. Muscle proteome modulation was assessed at 14 and 21 days, showing that protein expression profiles were similar between fish exposed to 18 and 24°C, differing from fish exposed to 30°C. Fish subjected to 24°C showed an enhanced glycolytic potential and decreased glycogenolysis mainly at 14 days of exposure. Fish subjected to 30°C also showed enhanced glycolytic potential and up-regulated proteins related to gene expression, cellular stress response (CSR), and homeostasis (mostly cytoskeletal dynamics, acid-base balance, chaperoning). However, inflammatory processes were elicited at 21 days along with a down-regulation of the tricarboxylic acid cycle. Thus, juvenile fish seem able to acclimate to 24°C but possibly not to 30°C, which is the predicted temperature for estuaries during heat waves by the year 2100. This may be related with increasing constraints on organism physiology associated with metabolic scope available for performance and fitness at higher temperatures. Consequently, recruitment of commercial sea breams may be in jeopardy, highlighting the need for improved management plans for fish stocks.

  17. Molecular Plasticity under Ocean Warming: Proteomics and Fitness Data Provides Clues for a Better Understanding of the Thermal Tolerance in Fish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Madeira

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Ocean warming is known to alter the performance and fitness of marine organisms albeit the proteome underpinnings of species thermal tolerance are still largely unknown. In this 1-month experiment we assessed the vulnerability of the gilt-head sea bream Sparus aurata, taken here as a biological model for some key fisheries species, to ocean warming (control 18°C, nursery ground temperature 24°C and heat wave 30°C. Survival was impaired after 28 days, mainly at 30°C although fishes' condition was unaltered. Muscle proteome modulation was assessed at 14 and 21 days, showing that protein expression profiles were similar between fish exposed to 18 and 24°C, differing from fish exposed to 30°C. Fish subjected to 24°C showed an enhanced glycolytic potential and decreased glycogenolysis mainly at 14 days of exposure. Fish subjected to 30°C also showed enhanced glycolytic potential and up-regulated proteins related to gene expression, cellular stress response (CSR, and homeostasis (mostly cytoskeletal dynamics, acid-base balance, chaperoning. However, inflammatory processes were elicited at 21 days along with a down-regulation of the tricarboxylic acid cycle. Thus, juvenile fish seem able to acclimate to 24°C but possibly not to 30°C, which is the predicted temperature for estuaries during heat waves by the year 2100. This may be related with increasing constraints on organism physiology associated with metabolic scope available for performance and fitness at higher temperatures. Consequently, recruitment of commercial sea breams may be in jeopardy, highlighting the need for improved management plans for fish stocks.

  18. More, smaller bacteria in response to ocean's warming?

    KAUST Repository

    Moran, Xose Anxelu G.; Alonso-Sá ez, Laura; Nogueira, Enrique; Ducklow, Hugh W.; Gonzá lez, Natalia; Ló pez-Urrutia, Á ngel; Dí az-Pé rez, Laura; Calvo-Dí az, Alejandra; Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Huete-Stauffer, Tamara M.

    2015-01-01

    Heterotrophic bacteria play a major role in organic matter cycling in the ocean. Although the high abundances and relatively fast growth rates of coastal surface bacterioplankton make them suitable sentinels of global change, past analyses have

  19. GLOBAL WARMING. Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieves, Veronica; Willis, Josh K; Patzert, William C

    2015-07-31

    Recent modeling studies have proposed different scenarios to explain the slowdown in surface temperature warming in the most recent decade. Some of these studies seem to support the idea of internal variability and/or rearrangement of heat between the surface and the ocean interior. Others suggest that radiative forcing might also play a role. Our examination of observational data over the past two decades shows some significant differences when compared to model results from reanalyses and provides the most definitive explanation of how the heat was redistributed. We find that cooling in the top 100-meter layer of the Pacific Ocean was mainly compensated for by warming in the 100- to 300-meter layer of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the past decade since 2003. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  20. Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kano, Yuichi; Dudgeon, David; Nam, So; Samejima, Hiromitsu; Watanabe, Katsutoshi; Grudpan, Chaiwut; Grudpan, Jarungjit; Magtoon, Wichan; Musikasinthorn, Prachya; Nguyen, Phuong Thanh; Praxaysonbath, Bounthob; Sato, Tomoyuki; Shibukawa, Koichi; Shimatani, Yukihiro; Suvarnaraksha, Apinun; Tanaka, Wataru; Thach, Phanara; Tran, Dac Dinh; Yamashita, Tomomi; Utsugi, Kenzo

    2016-01-01

    Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more immediately pressing for

  1. Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuichi Kano

    Full Text Available Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more

  2. Biogeochemical modelling of dissolved oxygen in a changing ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Oliver; Buitenhuis, Erik; Le Quéré, Corinne; Suntharalingam, Parvadha

    2017-08-01

    Secular decreases in dissolved oxygen concentration have been observed within the tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) and at mid- to high latitudes over the last approximately 50 years. Earth system model projections indicate that a reduction in the oxygen inventory of the global ocean, termed ocean deoxygenation, is a likely consequence of on-going anthropogenic warming. Current models are, however, unable to consistently reproduce the observed trends and variability of recent decades, particularly within the established tropical OMZs. Here, we conduct a series of targeted hindcast model simulations using a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemistry model in order to explore and review biases in model distributions of oceanic oxygen. We show that the largest magnitude of uncertainty is entrained into ocean oxygen response patterns due to model parametrization of pCO2-sensitive C : N ratios in carbon fixation and imposed atmospheric forcing data. Inclusion of a pCO2-sensitive C : N ratio drives historical oxygen depletion within the ocean interior due to increased organic carbon export and subsequent remineralization. Atmospheric forcing is shown to influence simulated interannual variability in ocean oxygen, particularly due to differences in imposed variability of wind stress and heat fluxes. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

  3. The Ocean: Our Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Independent World Commission On The Oceans; Soares, Mario

    1998-09-01

    The Ocean, Our Future is the official report of the Independent World Commission on the Oceans, chaired by Mário Soares, former President of Portugal. Its aim is to summarize the very real problems affecting the ocean and its future management, and to provide imaginative solutions to these various and interlocking problems. The oceans have traditionally been taken for granted as a source of wealth, opportunity and abundance. Our growing understanding of the oceans has fundamentally changed this perception. We now know that in some areas, abundance is giving way to real scarcity, resulting in severe conflicts. Territorial disputes that threaten peace and security, disruptions to global climate, overfishing, habitat destruction, species extinction, indiscriminate trawling, pollution, the dumping of hazardous and toxic wastes, piracy, terrorism, illegal trafficking and the destruction of coastal communities are among the problems that today form an integral part of the unfolding drama of the oceans. Based on the deliberations, experience and input of more than 100 specialists from around the world, this timely volume provides a powerful overview of the state of our water world.

  4. Our Changing Oceans: All about Ocean Acidification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rickwood, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The consequences of ocean acidification are global in scale. More research into ocean acidification and its consequences is needed. It is already known, for example, that there are regional differences in the vulnerability of fisheries to acidification. The combination of other factors, such as global warming, the destruction of habitats, overfishing and pollution, need to be taken into account when developing strategies to increase the marine environment’s resilience. Among steps that can be taken to reduce the impact is better protection of marine coastal ecosystems, such as mangrove swamps and seagrass meadows, which will help protect fisheries. This recommendation was one of the conclusions of a three-day workshop attended by economists and scientists and organized by the IAEA and the Centre Scientifique de Monaco in November 2012. In their recommendations the workshop also stressed that the impact of increasing ocean acidity must be taken into account in the management of fisheries, particularly where seafood is a main dietary source

  5. The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal

    2015-01-01

    Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon...... stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological...... approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed...

  6. Influences of two types of El Niño event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Haibo; Wu, Qigang; Wu, Zepeng

    2018-01-01

    Based on the HadISST1 and NCEP datasets, we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Niño event (CP-EL) and eastern Pacific El Niño event (EP-EL) on the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean. Considering the remote effect of Indian Ocean warming, we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate. Results show that during the El Niño developing year of EP-EL, cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean. At the end of that autumn, all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs. However, considering the statistical significance, more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year. For further research, EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (EPI-EL) and CP El Niño accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (CPI-EL) events are classified. With the remote effects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies, the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific. For the EPI-EL developing year, large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May, and persist to the autumn of the El Niño decaying year. However, for the CPI-EL, weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Niño decaying spring. Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean, distinct zonal SST gradient, atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Niño decaying years. Specifically, the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years, can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean. The atmospheric

  7. Sponge biomass and bioerosion rates increase under ocean warming and acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, James K H; Mello-Athayde, Matheus A; Schönberg, Christine H L; Kline, David I; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Dove, Sophie

    2013-12-01

    The combination of ocean warming and acidification as a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) is considered to be a significant threat to calcifying organisms and their activities on coral reefs. How these global changes impact the important roles of decalcifying organisms (bioeroders) in the regulation of carbonate budgets, however, is less understood. To address this important question, the effects of a range of past, present and future CO2 emission scenarios (temperature + acidification) on the excavating sponge Cliona orientalis Thiele, 1900 were explored over 12 weeks in early summer on the southern Great Barrier Reef. C. orientalis is a widely distributed bioeroder on many reefs, and hosts symbiotic dinoflagellates of the genus Symbiodinium. Our results showed that biomass production and bioerosion rates of C. orientalis were similar under a pre-industrial scenario and a present day (control) scenario. Symbiodinium population density in the sponge tissue was the highest under the pre-industrial scenario, and decreased towards the two future scenarios with sponge replicates under the 'business-as-usual' CO2 emission scenario exhibiting strong bleaching. Despite these changes, biomass production and the ability of the sponge to erode coral carbonate materials both increased under the future scenarios. Our study suggests that C. orientalis will likely grow faster and have higher bioerosion rates in a high CO2 future than at present, even with significant bleaching. Assuming that our findings hold for excavating sponges in general, increased sponge biomass coupled with accelerated bioerosion may push coral reefs towards net erosion and negative carbonate budgets in the future. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Underway pressure, temperature, and salinity data from the MOANA WAVE from the Pacific warm pool in support of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) from 02 February 1993 to 21 February 1993 (NODC Accession 9600090)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Pressure, temperature, and salinity data were collected while underway from the MOANA WAVE from the Pacific warm pool. Data were collected in support of the Coupled...

  9. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Thinning, Feb, 5, 1998

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Feb. 5, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The area and volume of the El Nino warm water pool that is affecting global weather patterns remains extremely large, but the pool has thinned along the equator and near the coast of South America. This 'thinning' means that the warm water is not as deep as it was a few months ago. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition that they would expect to see during the ocean's gradual transition back to normal sea level. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather conditions that have impacted much of the United States and the world are expected to remain through

  10. On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Benestad

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5°C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area AT with similar results.

    An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean.

    A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.

  11. Long-Term Precipitation Isotope Ratios (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) in the Northeast US Reflect Atlantic Ocean Warming and Shifts in Moisture Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntsag, T.; Welker, J. M.; Mitchell, M. J.; Klein, E. S.; Campbell, J. L.; Likens, G.

    2014-12-01

    The global water cycle is exhibiting dramatic changes as global temperatures increase resulting in increases in: drought extremes, flooding, alterations in storm track patterns with protracted winter storms, and greater precipitation variability. The mechanisms driving these changes can be difficult to assess, but the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) provide a means to help understand these water cycle changes. However, extended temporal records of isotope ratios in precipitation are infrequent, especially in the US. In our study we analyzed precipitation isotope ratio data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire that has the longest US precipitation isotope record, to determine: 1) the monthly composited averages and trends from 1967 to 2012 (45 years); ; 2) the relationships between abiotic properties such as local temperatures, precipitation type, storm tracks and isotope ratio changes; and 3) the influence of regional shifts in moisture sources and/or changes in N Atlantic Ocean water conditions on isotope values. The seasonal variability of Hubbard Brook precipitation isotope ratios is consistent with other studies, as average δ18O values are ~ -15‰ in January and ~ -5 ‰ in July. However, over the 45 year record there is a depletion trend in the δ 18O values (becoming isotopically lighter with a greater proportion of 16O), which coupled with less change in δ 2H leads to increases in d-excess values from ~ -10‰ around 1970 to greater than 10‰ in 2009. These changes occurred during a period of warming as opposed to cooling local temperatures indicating other processes besides temperature are controlling long-term water isotope traits in this region. We have evidence that these changes in precipitation isotope traits are controlled in large part by an increases in moisture being sourced from a warming N Atlantic Ocean that is providing evaporated, isotopically

  12. Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R; Leung, L Ruby; Emanuel, Kerry A

    2016-11-25

    Super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall in places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961-2008 is ∼53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.

  13. Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

    2018-04-16

    The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

  14. Variation in sensitivity of large benthic Foraminifera to the combined effects of ocean warming and local impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prazeres, Martina; Roberts, T Edward; Pandolfi, John M

    2017-03-23

    Large benthic foraminifera (LBF) are crucial marine calcifiers in coral reefs, and sensitive to environmental changes. Yet, many species successfully colonise a wide range of habitats including highly fluctuating environments. We tested the combined effects of ocean warming, local impacts and different light levels on populations of the common LBF Amphistegina lobifera collected along a cross-shelf gradient of temperature and nutrients fluctuations. We analysed survivorship, bleaching frequency, chlorophyll a content and fecundity. Elevated temperature and nitrate significantly reduced survivorship and fecundity of A. lobifera across populations studied. This pattern was exacerbated when combined with below optimum light levels. Inshore populations showed a consistent resistance to increased temperature and nitrate levels, but all populations studied were significantly affected by light reduction. These findings demonstrated the capacity of some populations of LBF to acclimate to local conditions; nonetheless improvements in local water quality can ultimately ameliorate effects of climate change in local LBF populations.

  15. Significant Atmospheric Boundary Layer Change Observed above an Agulhas Current Warm Cored Eddy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Messager

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The air-sea impact of a warm cored eddy ejected from the Agulhas Retroflection region south of Africa was assessed through both ocean and atmospheric profiling measurements during the austral summer. The presence of the eddy causes dramatic atmospheric boundary layer deepening, exceeding what was measured previously over such a feature in the region. This deepening seems mainly due to the turbulent heat flux anomaly above the warm eddy inducing extensive deep and persistent changes in the atmospheric boundary layer thermodynamics. The loss of heat by turbulent processes suggests that this kind of oceanic feature is an important and persistent source of heat for the atmosphere.

  16. Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

    2009-11-17

    Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

  17. Warm Water Entrainment Impacts and Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of a Proposed Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Pilot Plant Offshore Oahu, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauer, Whitney Blanchard

    Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a marine renewable energy technology that uses the temperature difference of large volumes of cold deep and warm surface seawater in tropical regions to generate electricity. One anticipated environmental impact of OTEC operations is the entrainment and subsequent mortality of ichthyoplankton (fish eggs and larvae) from the withdrawal of cold and warm seawater. The potential ichthyoplankton loss from the warm water intake was estimated for a proposed 10 MW OTEC pilot plant offshore Oahu, HI based on ambient vertical distribution data. The estimated losses due to entrainment from the warm water intake were 8.418E+02 larvae/1000 m3, 3.26E+06 larvae/day, and 1.19E+09 larvae/year. The potential entrained larvae/year is 1.86 X greater than at the Kahe Generating Station (Kapolei, HI), a 582 MW oil-fired power plant. Extrapolating to age-1 equivalence (9.2E+02 and 2.9E+02 yellowfin and skipjack tuna, respectively), the estimated yearly losses from warm water entrainment of yellowfin and skipjack tuna fish eggs and larvae represent 0.25-0.26 % and 0.09-0.11 % of Hawaii's commercial yellowfin and skipjack tuna industry in 2011 and 2012. An environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) was developed for the proposed OTEC plant operating for 20 and 40 years with availability factors of 0.85, 0.95, and 1.0 to determine the global warming potential (GWP) and cumulative energy demand (CED) impacts. For a 20 year operational OTEC plant, the GWP, CED, energy return on investment (EROI), and energy payback time (EPBT) ranged from 0.047 to 0.055 kg CO2eq/kWh, 0.678 to 0.798 MJ/kWh, 4.51 to 5.31 (unitless), and 3.77 to 4.43 years, respectively. For a 40 year operational OTEC plant, the GWP, CED, EROI, and EBPT ranged from 0.036 to 0.043 kg CO2eq/kWh, 0.527 to 0.620 MJ/kWh, 5.81 to 6.83 (unitless), and 5.85 to 6.89 years, respectively. The GWP impacts are within the range of renewable energy technologies and less than conventional electricity

  18. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-11-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  19. The effects of global warming on allergic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, A W; Hon, K L; Leung, T F; Ho, M H; Rosa Duque, J S; Lee, T H

    2018-05-29

    Global warming is a public health emergency. Substantial scientific evidence indicates an unequivocal rising trend in global surface temperature that has caused higher atmospheric levels of moisture retention leading to more frequent extreme weather conditions, shrinking ice volume, and gradually rising sea levels. The concomitant rise in the prevalence of allergic diseases is closely related to these environmental changes because warm and moist environments favour the proliferation of common allergens such as pollens, dust mites, molds, and fungi. Global warming also stresses ecosystems, further accelerating critical biodiversity loss. Excessive carbon dioxide, together with the warming of seawater, promotes ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. This results in a progressive decline of phytoplankton and fish growth that in turn promotes the formation of larger oceanic dead zones, disrupting the food chain and biodiversity. Poor environmental biodiversity and a reduction in the microbiome spectrum are risk factors for allergic diseases in human populations. While climate change and the existence of an allergy epidemic are closely linked according to robust international research, efforts to mitigate these have encountered strong resistance because of vested economic and political concerns in different countries. International collaboration to establish legally binding regulations should be mandatory for forest protection and energy saving. Lifestyle and behavioural changes should also be advocated at the individual level by focusing on low carbon living; avoiding food wastage; and implementing the 4Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle, and replace principles. These lifestyle measures are entirely consistent with the current recommendations for allergy prevention. Efforts to mitigate climate change, preserve biodiversity, and prevent chronic diseases are interdependent disciplines.

  20. Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehlert, Dana; Zickfeld, Kirsten

    2018-03-01

    In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1 % yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1 % yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.

  1. Gas hydrate dissociation prolongs acidification of the Anthropocene oceans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudreau, B.P.; Luo, Yiming; Meysman, Filip J R; Middelburg, J.J.; Dickens, G.R.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic warming of the oceans can release methane (CH4) currently stored in sediments as gas hydrates. This CH4 will be oxidized to CO2, thus increasing the acidification of the oceans. We employ a biogeochemical model of the multimillennial carbon cycle to determine the evolution of the

  2. Season exerts differential effects of ocean acidification and warming on growth and carbon metabolism of the seaweed Fucus vesiculosus in the western Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelika eGraiff

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Warming and acidification of the oceans as a consequence of increasing CO2-concentrations occur at large scales. Numerous studies have shown the impact of single stressors on individual species. However, studies on the combined effect of multiple stressors on a multi-species assemblage, which is ecologically much more realistic and relevant, are still scarce. Therefore, we orthogonally crossed the two factors warming and acidification in mesocosm experiments and studied their single and combined impact on the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus associated with its natural community (epiphytes and mesograzers in the Baltic Sea in all seasons (from April 2013 to April 2014. We superimposed our treatment factors onto the natural fluctuations of all environmental variables present in the Benthocosms in so-called delta-treatments. Thereby we compared the physiological responses of F. vesiculosus (growth and metabolites to the single and combined effects of natural Kiel Fjord temperatures and pCO2 conditions with a 5 °C temperature increase and/or pCO2 increase treatment (1100 ppm in the headspace above the mesocosms. Responses were also related to the factor photoperiod which changes over the course of the year. Our results demonstrate complex seasonal pattern. Elevated pCO2 positively affected growth of F. vesiculosus alone and/or interactively with warming. The response direction (additive, synergistic or antagonistic, however, depended on season and daylength. The effects were most obvious when plants were actively growing during spring and early summer. Our study revealed for the first time that it is crucial to always consider the impact of variable environmental conditions throughout all seasons. In summary, our study indicates that in future F. vesiculosus will be more affected by detrimental summer heat-waves than by ocean acidification although the latter consequently enhances growth throughout the year. The mainly negative influence of rising

  3. Moored surface buoy observations of the diurnal warm layer

    KAUST Repository

    Prytherch, J.

    2013-09-01

    An extensive data set is used to examine the dynamics of diurnal warming in the upper ocean. The data set comprises more than 4700 days of measurements at five sites in the tropics and subtropics, obtained from surface moorings equipped to make comprehensive meteorological, incoming solar and infrared radiation, and high-resolution subsurface temperature (and, in some cases, velocity) measurements. The observations, which include surface warmings of up to 3.4°C, are compared with a selection of existing models of the diurnal warm layer (DWL). A simple one-layer physical model is shown to give a reasonable estimate of both the magnitude of diurnal surface warming (model-observation correlation 0.88) and the structure and temporal evolution of the DWL. Novel observations of velocity shear obtained during 346 days at one site, incorporating high-resolution (1 m) upper ocean (5-15 m) acoustic Doppler current profile measurements, are also shown to be in reasonable agreement with estimates from the physical model (daily maximum shear model-observation correlation 0.77). Physics-based improvements to the one-layer model (incorporation of rotation and freshwater terms) are discussed, though they do not provide significant improvements against the observations reported here. The simplicity and limitations of the physical model are used to discuss DWL dynamics. The physical model is shown to give better model performance under the range of forcing conditions experienced across the five sites than the more empirical models. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  4. Moored surface buoy observations of the diurnal warm layer

    KAUST Repository

    Prytherch, J.; Farrar, J. T.; Weller, R. A.

    2013-01-01

    An extensive data set is used to examine the dynamics of diurnal warming in the upper ocean. The data set comprises more than 4700 days of measurements at five sites in the tropics and subtropics, obtained from surface moorings equipped to make comprehensive meteorological, incoming solar and infrared radiation, and high-resolution subsurface temperature (and, in some cases, velocity) measurements. The observations, which include surface warmings of up to 3.4°C, are compared with a selection of existing models of the diurnal warm layer (DWL). A simple one-layer physical model is shown to give a reasonable estimate of both the magnitude of diurnal surface warming (model-observation correlation 0.88) and the structure and temporal evolution of the DWL. Novel observations of velocity shear obtained during 346 days at one site, incorporating high-resolution (1 m) upper ocean (5-15 m) acoustic Doppler current profile measurements, are also shown to be in reasonable agreement with estimates from the physical model (daily maximum shear model-observation correlation 0.77). Physics-based improvements to the one-layer model (incorporation of rotation and freshwater terms) are discussed, though they do not provide significant improvements against the observations reported here. The simplicity and limitations of the physical model are used to discuss DWL dynamics. The physical model is shown to give better model performance under the range of forcing conditions experienced across the five sites than the more empirical models. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  5. Effect of Warm Atlantic Waters on the Climate Anomalies in the West Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Zolotokrylin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012 and «cold» ocean (1960–1970 were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice, surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.

  6. Project CLIMPEAT - Influence of global warming and drought on the carbon sequestration and biodiversity of Sphagnum peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamentowicz, M.; Buttler, A.; Mitchell, E. A. D.; Chojnicki, B.; Słowińska, S.; Słowiński, M.

    2012-04-01

    Northern peatlands represent a globally significant pool of carbon and are subject to the highest rates of climate warming, and most of these peatlands are in continental settings. However, it is unclear if how fast peatlands respond to past and present changes in temperature and surface moisture in continental vs. oceanic climate settings. The CLIMPEAT project brings together scientists from Poland and Switzerland. Our goal is to assess the past and present vulnerability to climate change of Sphagnum peatland plant and microbial communities, peat organic matter transformations and carbon sequestration using a combination of field and mesocosm experiments simulating warming and water table changes and palaeoecological studies. Warming will be achieved using ITEX-type "Open-Top Chambers". The field studies are conducted in Poland, at the limit between oceanic and continental climates, and are part of a network of projects also including field experiments in the French Jura (sub-oceanic) and in Siberia (continental). We will calibrate the response of key biological (plants, testate amoebae) and geochemical (isotopic composition of organic compounds, organic matter changes) proxies to warming and water table changes and use these proxies to reconstruct climate changes during the last 1000 years.

  7. Acute survivorship of the deep-sea coral Lophelia pertusa from the Gulf of Mexico under acidification, warming, and deoxygenation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunden, Jay J.; McNicholl, Conall G.; Sears, Christopher R.; Morrison, Cheryl L.; Cordes, Erik E.

    2014-01-01

    Changing global climate due to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are driving rapid changes in the physical and chemical environment of the oceans via warming, deoxygenation, and acidification. These changes may threaten the persistence of species and populations across a range of latitudes and depths, including species that support diverse biological communities that in turn provide ecological stability and support commercial interests. Worldwide, but particularly in the North Atlantic and deep Gulf of Mexico, Lophelia pertusa forms expansive reefs that support biological communities whose diversity rivals that of tropical coral reefs. In this study, L. pertusa colonies were collected from the Viosca Knoll region in the Gulf of Mexico (390 to 450 m depth), genotyped using microsatellite markers, and exposed to a series of treatments testing survivorship responses to acidification, warming, and deoxygenation. All coral nubbins survived the acidification scenarios tested, between pH of 7.67 and 7.90 and aragonite saturation states of 0.92 and 1.47. However, net calcification generally declined with respect to pH, though a disparate response was evident where select individuals net calcified and others exhibited net dissolution near a saturation state of 1. Warming and deoxygenation both had negative effects on survivorship, with up to 100% mortality observed at temperatures above 14°C and oxygen concentrations of approximately 1.5 ml· l−1. These results suggest that, over the short-term, climate change and OA may negatively impact L. pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico, though the potential for acclimation and the effects of genetic background should be considered in future research.

  8. Determinants of bird conservation-action implementation and associated population trends of threatened species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, David A; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hayward, Matt W; Kester, Marieke E; Lamoreux, John; Upgren, Amy

    2016-12-01

    Conservation actions, such as habitat protection, attempt to halt the loss of threatened species and help their populations recover. The efficiency and the effectiveness of actions have been examined individually. However, conservation actions generally occur simultaneously, so the full suite of implemented conservation actions should be assessed. We used the conservation actions underway for all threatened and near-threatened birds of the world (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species) to assess which biological (related to taxonomy and ecology) and anthropogenic (related to geoeconomics) factors were associated with the implementation of different classes of conservation actions. We also assessed which conservation actions were associated with population increases in the species targeted. Extinction-risk category was the strongest single predictor of the type of conservation actions implemented, followed by landmass type (continent, oceanic island, etc.) and generation length. Species targeted by invasive nonnative species control or eradication programs, ex situ conservation, international legislation, reintroduction, or education, and awareness-raising activities were more likely to have increasing populations. These results illustrate the importance of developing a predictive science of conservation actions and the relative benefits of each class of implemented conservation action for threatened and near-threatened birds worldwide. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

    OpenAIRE

    Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

    2015-01-01

    Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

  10. A note on Arabian Sea warm pool and its possible relation with monsoon onset over Kerala

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chacko, K.V.; HareeshKumar, P.V.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Mathew, B.; Bannur, V.M.

    The possible relation of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool (ASWP) with monsoon onset over Kerala is studied by utilizing the TRMM Microwave Imager data during the period 2007-2011 (5 years). The ASWP is a part of the Indian Ocean warm pool and forms...

  11. Pathways of warm water to the Northeast Greenland outlet glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffer, Janin; Timmermann, Ralph; Kanzow, Torsten; Arndt, Jan Erik; Mayer, Christoph; Schauer, Ursula

    2015-04-01

    The ocean plays an important role in modulating the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet by delivering heat to the marine-terminating outlet glaciers surrounding the Greenland coast. The warming and accumulation of Atlantic Water in the subpolar North Atlantic has been suggested to be a potential driver of the glaciers' retreat over the last decades. The shelf regions thus play a critical role for the transport of Atlantic Water towards the glaciers, but also for the transfer of freshwater towards the deep ocean. A key region for the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. This large ice stream drains the second-largest basin of the Greenland Ice Sheet and feeds three outlet glaciers. The largest one is Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79°N-Glacier) featuring an 80 km long floating ice tongue. Both the ocean circulation on the continental shelf off Northeast Greenland and the circulation in the cavity below the ice tongue are weakly constrained so far. In order to study the relevant processes of glacier-ocean interaction we combine observations and model work. Here we focus on historic and recent hydrographic observations and on the complex bathymetry in the Northeast Greenland shelf region, which is thought to steer the flux of warm Atlantic water onto the continental shelf and into the sub-ice cavity beneath the 79°N-Glacier. We present a new global topography data set, RTopo-2, which includes the most recent surveys on the Northeast Greenland continental shelf and provides a detailed bathymetry for all around Greenland. In addition, RTopo-2 contains ice and bedrock surface topographies for Greenland and Antarctica. Based on the updated ocean bathymetry and a variety of hydrographic observations we show the water mass distribution on the continental shelf off Northeast Greenland. These maps enable us to discuss possible supply pathways of warm modified Atlantic waters on the continental shelf and thus potential ways of heat

  12. Oceans, microbes, and global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Danovaro, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine life and on microbial components. Prokaryotes (Bacteria and Archaea), viruses and other microbial life forms are impacted by ...

  13. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  14. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  15. Trends of coastal and oceanic ST along the Western Iberian Peninsula over the period 1975- 2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, F.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.; deCastro, M.; Álvarez, I.; Sousa, M. C.

    2012-04-01

    Temperature is observed to have different trends at coastal and oceanic locations along the western Iberian Peninsula (from 43.25oN to 37.25oN and from 9.75°W to 14.75°W) from 1975 to 2006. This period corresponds with the last warming period in the area under study. The analysis was carried out by means of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package. Reanalysis of ocean climate variability are available at monthly scale with a horizontal resolution of 0.5o- 0.5o and a vertical resolution of 40 levels which allows us to obtain information beneath the sea surface levels (http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ocean/). Only the first 21 vertical levels (from 5.0 m to 729.35 m) were considered since the most important changes in the heat content observed in the world ocean during the last decades, correspond to the upper 700m (Levitus et al., 2009). Warming was observed to be considerably higher at ocean locations than at coastal ones at the same latitude. This behavior is observed throughout the water column. Ocean warming ranged from values on the order of 0.3 °C dec-1 near surface to 0.1 °C dec-1 at 500 m depth. On the contrary, the coastal warming is much smaller, reaching values close to 0.2 °C dec-1 near surface and decreasing rapidly at values below 0.1 °C dec-1 for depths on the order of 50 m. Actually, coastal warming is practically negligible under 50 m. The different warming rates near coast and at ocean locations have been previously described for SST by the authors (Santos et al, 2011, 2012). The weaker coastal warming compared with the ocean warming at the same latitude was related to the presence of coastal upwelling. Coastal upwelling is the most importing forcing mechanism in the western coast of the Iberian Peninsula pumping cold water from below to near surface layers. In this sense, the heat diffusion from the atmosphere is constrained to near surface area by advection, which mixes deeper colder water with warmer surface water. The heat content

  16. 50 CFR 222.103 - Federal/state cooperation in the conservation of endangered and threatened species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Federal regulations for grant administration and cost accounting principles. (3)(i) The payment of the... conservation of endangered and threatened species. 222.103 Section 222.103 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MARINE...

  17. Asymmetric Response of the Equatorial Pacific SST to Climate Warming and Cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Fukai [Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Luo, Yiyong [Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Lu, Jian [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Garuba, Oluwayemi [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Wan, Xiuquan [Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China

    2017-09-01

    The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show a strong asymmetry in SST changes. In the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), the warming responding to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing; while in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), it is the other way around and the cooling surpasses the warming. This leads to a zonal dipole asymmetric structure, with positive values in the east and negative values in the west. A surface heat budget analysis suggests that the SST asymmetry is mainly resulted from the oceanic horizontal advection and vertical entrainment, with both of their linear and nonlinear components playing a role. For the linear component, its change appears to be more significant over the EEP (WEP) in the positive (negative) forcing scenario, favoring the seesaw pattern of the SST asymmetry. For the nonlinear component, its change acts to warm (cool) the EEP (WEP) in both scenarios, also favorable for the development of the SST asymmetry. Additional experiments with a slab ocean confirm the dominant role of ocean dynamical processes for this SST asymmetry. The net surface heat flux, in contrast, works to reduce the SST asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components, with the former being related to the nonlinear relationship between SST and convection, and the latter being attributable to Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. The suppressing effect of shortwave radiation on SST asymmetry is further verified by partially coupled overriding experiments.

  18. Warming, soil moisture, and loss of snow increase Bromus tectorum’s population growth rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldo Compagnoni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1 warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2 reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to warming. We used infrared heaters operating continuously to create the warming treatment, but turned heaters on only during snowfalls for the snowmelt treatment. We monitored cheatgrass population growth rate and the vital rates that determine it: emergence, survival and fecundity. Growth rate increased in both warming and snowmelt treatments. The largest increases occurred in warming plots during the wettest year, indicating that the magnitude of response to warming depends on moisture availability. Warming increased both fecundity and survival, especially in the wet year, while snowmelt contributed to the positive effects of warming by increasing survival. Our results indicate that increasing temperature will exacerbate cheatgrass impacts, especially where warming causes large reductions in the depth and duration of snow cover.

  19. Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra, Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lestari, R Kartika; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Imada, Yukiko; Shiogama, Hideo; Field, Robert D; Takemura, Toshihiko

    2014-01-01

    Uncontrolled biomass burning in Indonesia during drought periods damages the landscape, degrades regional air quality, and acts as a disproportionately large source of greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of forest fires is mostly observed in October in Sumatra favored by persistent droughts during the dry season from June to November. The contribution of anthropogenic warming to the probability of severe droughts is not yet clear. Here, we show evidence that past events in Sumatra were exacerbated by anthropogenic warming and that they will become more frequent under a future emissions scenario. By conducting two sets of atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments driven by observed sea surface temperature for 1960–2011, one with and one without an anthropogenic warming component, we found that a recent weakening of the Walker circulation associated with tropical ocean warming increased the probability of severe droughts in Sumatra, despite increasing tropical-mean precipitation. A future increase in the frequency of droughts is then suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model ensembles. Increasing precipitation to the north of the equator accompanies drier conditions over Indonesia, amplified by enhanced ocean surface warming in the central equatorial Pacific. The resultant precipitation decrease leads to a ∼25% increase in severe drought events from 1951–2000 to 2001–2050. Our results therefore indicate the global warming impact to a potential of wide-spreading forest fires over Indonesia, which requires mitigation policy for disaster prevention. (letter)

  20. Arctic Sea Ice Basal Melt Onset Variability and Associated Ocean Surface Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, R. A.; Hutchings, J. K.

    2015-12-01

    The interannual and regional variability in Arctic sea ice melt has previously been characterized only in terms of surface melting. A focus on the variability in the onset of basal melt is additionally required to understand Arctic melt patterns. Monitoring basal melt provides a glimpse into the importance of ocean heating to sea ice melt. This warming is predominantly through seawater exposure due to lead opening and the associated solar warming at the ocean's surface. We present the temporal variability in basal melt onset observed by ice mass balance buoys throughout the Arctic Ocean since 2003, providing a different perspective than the satellite microwave data used to measure the onset of surface melt. We found that melt onset varies greatly, even for buoys deployed within 100km of each other. Therefore large volumes of data are necessary to accurately estimate the variability of basal melt onset. Once the variability of basal melt onset has been identified, we can investigate how this range has been changing as a response to atmospheric and oceanic warming, changes in ice morphology as well as the intensification of the ice albedo feedback.

  1. Ocean CO{sub 2} disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shindo, Yuji; Hakuta, Toshikatsu [National Inst. of Materials and Chemical Research, AIST, MITI, Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Most countries in the world will continue to depend on fossil fuels for their main energy at least for half a country, even in the confrontation with the threat of global warming. This indicates that the development of CO{sub 2} removal technologies such as recovering CO{sub 2} from flue gases and sequestering it of in the deep oceans or subterranean sites is necessary, at least until non-fossil fuel dependent society is developed. Ocean CO{sub 2} disposal is one of the promising options for the sequestration of CO{sub 2} recovered from flue gases. Oceans have sufficient capacity to absorb all the CO{sub 2} emitted in the world. It is very significant to research and develop the technologies for ocean CO{sub 2} disposal.

  2. Vulnerability of Southeast Greenland Glaciers to Warm Atlantic Water From Operation IceBridge and Ocean Melting Greenland Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, R.; Rignot, E.; Mouginot, J.; Wood, M.; Bjørk, A. A.; Morlighem, M.

    2018-03-01

    We employ National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s Operation IceBridge high-resolution airborne gravity from 2016, NASA's Ocean Melting Greenland bathymetry from 2015, ice thickness from Operation IceBridge from 2010 to 2015, and BedMachine v3 to analyze 20 major southeast Greenland glaciers. The results reveal glacial fjords several hundreds of meters deeper than previously thought; the full extent of the marine-based portions of the glaciers; deep troughs enabling warm, salty Atlantic Water (AW) to reach the glacier fronts and melt them from below; and few shallow sills that limit the access of AW. The new oceanographic and topographic data help to fully resolve the complex pattern of historical ice front positions from the 1930s to 2017: glaciers exposed to AW and resting on retrograde beds have retreated rapidly, while glaciers perched on shallow sills or standing in colder waters or with major sills in the fjords have remained stable.

  3. A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, A.P.; Funk, Chris [University of California, Santa Barbara, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

    2011-12-15

    Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by {proportional_to}40 longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55 E-140 W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980-2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the 'long-rains' season of March-June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more 'El Nino-like' conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning. (orig.)

  4. Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shaomin; Wu, Guang

    2011-02-01

    To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

  5. Possible role of oceanic heat transport in early Eocene climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloan, L. C.; Walker, J. C.; Moore, T. C. Jr

    1995-01-01

    Increased oceanic heat transport has often been cited as a means of maintaining warm high-latitude surface temperatures in many intervals of the geologic past, including the early Eocene. Although the excess amount of oceanic heat transport required by warm high latitude sea surface temperatures can be calculated empirically, determining how additional oceanic heat transport would take place has yet to be accomplished. That the mechanisms of enhanced poleward oceanic heat transport remain undefined in paleoclimate reconstructions is an important point that is often overlooked. Using early Eocene climate as an example, we consider various ways to produce enhanced poleward heat transport and latitudinal energy redistribution of the sign and magnitude required by interpreted early Eocene conditions. Our interpolation of early Eocene paleotemperature data indicate that an approximately 30% increase in poleward heat transport would be required to maintain Eocene high-latitude temperatures. This increased heat transport appears difficult to accomplish by any means of ocean circulation if we use present ocean circulation characteristics to evaluate early Eocene rates. Either oceanic processes were very different from those of the present to produce the early Eocene climate conditions or oceanic heat transport was not the primary cause of that climate. We believe that atmospheric processes, with contributions from other factors, such as clouds, were the most likely primary cause of early Eocene climate.

  6. Deep ocean communities impacted by changing climate over 24 y in the abyssal northeast Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kenneth L; Ruhl, Henry A; Kahru, Mati; Huffard, Christine L; Sherman, Alana D

    2013-12-03

    The deep ocean, covering a vast expanse of the globe, relies almost exclusively on a food supply originating from primary production in surface waters. With well-documented warming of oceanic surface waters and conflicting reports of increasing and decreasing primary production trends, questions persist about how such changes impact deep ocean communities. A 24-y time-series study of sinking particulate organic carbon (food) supply and its utilization by the benthic community was conducted in the abyssal northeast Pacific (~4,000-m depth). Here we show that previous findings of food deficits are now punctuated by large episodic surpluses of particulate organic carbon reaching the sea floor, which meet utilization. Changing surface ocean conditions are translated to the deep ocean, where decadal peaks in supply, remineralization, and sequestration of organic carbon have broad implications for global carbon budget projections.

  7. Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

    2009-08-01

    The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

  8. The impacts and costs of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyre, N.J.

    1991-01-01

    There is now a scientific consensus that current rates of accumulation of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere will result in significant global warming and climate change. These changes are likely to have important impacts on a wide range of human activities and the natural environment. There has now been a considerable weight of literature published on the impacts of global warming, much of it very recent. This report seeks to summarise the important results, to analyse the uncertainties and to make a preliminary analysis of the feasibility of monetarising these environmental costs. The impacts of global warming are divided into ten major categories: agriculture, forests and forestry, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, hydrology and water resources, sea level rise and coastal zones, energy, infrastructure/transport/industry, human health and air quality, oceans, and cryospheric impacts. The results of major summary reports are analysed, notably the report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC). (author)

  9. Interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming on coral reef associated epilithic algal communities under past, present-day and future ocean conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, N.; Cantin, N. E.; Strahl, J.; Kaniewska, P.; Bay, L.; Wild, C.; Uthicke, S.

    2016-06-01

    Epilithic algal communities play critical ecological roles on coral reefs, but their response to individual and interactive effects of ocean warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA) is still largely unknown. We investigated growth, photosynthesis and calcification of early epilithic algal community assemblages exposed for 6 months to four temperature profiles (-1.1, ±0.0, +0.9, +1.6 °C) that were crossed with four carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) levels (360, 440, 650, 940 µatm), under flow-through conditions and natural light regimes. Additionally, we compared the cover of heavily calcified crustose coralline algae (CCA) and lightly calcified red algae of the genus Peyssonnelia among treatments. Increase in cover of epilithic communities showed optima under moderately elevated temperatures and present pCO2, while cover strongly decreased under high temperatures and high-pCO2 conditions, particularly due to decreasing cover of CCA. Similarly, community calcification rates were strongly decreased at high pCO2 under both measured temperatures. While final cover of CCA decreased under high temperature and pCO2 (additive negative effects), cover of Peyssonnelia spp. increased at high compared to annual average and moderately elevated temperatures. Thus, cover of Peyssonnelia spp. increased in treatment combinations with less CCA, which was supported by a significant negative correlation between organism groups. The different susceptibility to stressors most likely derived from a different calcification intensity and/or mineral. Notably, growth of the epilithic communities and final cover of CCA were strongly decreased under reduced-pCO2 conditions compared to the present. Thus, CCA may have acclimatized from past to present-day pCO2 conditions, and changes in carbonate chemistry, regardless in which direction, negatively affect them. However, if epilithic organisms cannot further acclimatize to OW and OA, the interacting effects of both factors may change

  10. Stand Up for Science: Lessons on Ocean Acidification from the Agua Hedionda Lagoon

    OpenAIRE

    Waters, Shannon

    2016-01-01

    Climate science has been a hallmark discipline at Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) and other oceanographic institutions for decades. However, despite the dedication from researchers to investigate the connections between climate science and ocean health, people outside the scientific community are largely unaware of climate-related ocean health issues like ocean warming and ocean acidification.  And yet one demographic group seems especially interested in ocean health issues: teenage...

  11. Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J; Fedorov, Alexey V; Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Tiedemann, Ralf; Haug, Gerald H

    2017-09-01

    An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, the world's largest ocean, where relatively fresh surface waters inhibit North Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400-ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redox-sensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.

  12. Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Jones, Leslie A.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Boyer, Matthew C.; Leary, Robb F.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Luikart, Gordon; Allendorf, Fred W.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will decrease worldwide biodiversity through a number of potential pathways, including invasive hybridization (cross-breeding between invasive and native species). How climate warming influences the spread of hybridization and loss of native genomes poses difficult ecological and evolutionary questions with little empirical information to guide conservation management decisions. Here we combine long-term genetic monitoring data with high-resolution climate and stream temperature predictions to evaluate how recent climate warming has influenced the spatio-temporal spread of human-mediated hybridization between threatened native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) and non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), the world’s most widely introduced invasive fish. Despite widespread release of millions of rainbow trout over the past century within the Flathead River system, a large relatively pristine watershed in western North America, historical samples revealed that hybridization was prevalent only in one (source) population. During a subsequent 30-year period of accelerated warming, hybridization spread rapidly and was strongly linked to interactions between climatic drivers—precipitation and temperature—and distance to the source population. Specifically, decreases in spring precipitation and increases in summer stream temperature probably promoted upstream expansion of hybridization throughout the system. This study shows that rapid climate warming can exacerbate interactions between native and non-native species through invasive hybridization, which could spell genomic extinction for many species.

  13. Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Jones, Leslie A.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Boyer, Matthew C.; Leary, Robb F.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Luikart, Gordon; Allendorf, Fred W.

    2014-07-01

    Climate change will decrease worldwide biodiversity through a number of potential pathways, including invasive hybridization (cross-breeding between invasive and native species). How climate warming influences the spread of hybridization and loss of native genomes poses difficult ecological and evolutionary questions with little empirical information to guide conservation management decisions. Here we combine long-term genetic monitoring data with high-resolution climate and stream temperature predictions to evaluate how recent climate warming has influenced the spatio-temporal spread of human-mediated hybridization between threatened native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) and non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), the world's most widely introduced invasive fish. Despite widespread release of millions of rainbow trout over the past century within the Flathead River system, a large relatively pristine watershed in western North America, historical samples revealed that hybridization was prevalent only in one (source) population. During a subsequent 30-year period of accelerated warming, hybridization spread rapidly and was strongly linked to interactions between climatic drivers--precipitation and temperature--and distance to the source population. Specifically, decreases in spring precipitation and increases in summer stream temperature probably promoted upstream expansion of hybridization throughout the system. This study shows that rapid climate warming can exacerbate interactions between native and non-native species through invasive hybridization, which could spell genomic extinction for many species.

  14. Will open ocean oxygen stress intensify under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

    2011-07-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full earth system model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in oxygen is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of oxygen due to lateral diffusion. compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model.

  15. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nyenzi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  16. Ocean sunfish as indicators for the 'rise of slime'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grémillet, David; White, Craig R; Authier, Matthieu; Dorémus, Ghislain; Ridoux, Vincent; Pettex, Emeline

    2017-12-04

    Overfishing and ocean warming are drastically altering the community composition and size structure of marine ecosystems, eliminating large bodied species [1]. Against a backdrop of such environmental change, the heaviest of all bony fish, the ocean sunfish (Mola mola), seems an improbable survivor. Indeed this indolent giant is killed globally as bycatch, and is listed as 'Vulnerable'[2]. We undertook the most extensive aerial surveys of sunfish ever conducted and found surprisingly high abundances off the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts of Western Europe. With up to 475 individuals per 100 km 2 , these figures are one order of magnitude higher than abundance estimates for other areas [3-5]. Using bioenergetic modelling, we estimate that each sunfish requires 71 kg day -1 of jellyfish, a biomass intake more than an order of magnitude greater than predicted for a similarly sized teleost. Scaled up to the population level, this equates to a remarkable 20,774 tonnes day -1 of predated jellyfish across our study area in summer. Sunfish abundance may be facilitated by overfishing and ocean warming, which together cause reduced predation of sunfish by sharks and elevated jellyfish biomass. Our combined survey and bioenergetic data provide the first-ever estimate of spatialized ocean sunfish daily food requirements, and stress the importance of this species as a global indicator for the 'rise of slime'. This hypothesis posits that, in an overfished world ocean exposed to global warming, gelatinous zooplankton should flourish, to the detriment of other mesotrophic species such as small pelagic fish, causing irreversible trophic cascades as well as a series of other environmental and economic issues. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 91 Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century A. S. Unnikrishnan National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa-403004 unni@nio.org Introduction Sea-level... rise is one of the good indicators of global warming. Rise in sea level occurs mainly through melting of glaciers, thermal expansion due to ocean warming and some other processes of relatively smaller magnitudes. Sea level rise is a global...

  18. Implementation of methane cycling for deep-time global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Gary; Fernández Villanueva, Esteban; Rondanelli, Roberto; Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Jens; Malskær Olsen, Steffen; Huber, Matthew

    2017-11-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean-atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean-atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example, greater carbon dioxide release

  19. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

    2016-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

  20. Changes in equatorial zonal circulations and precipitation in the context of the global warming and natural modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, B. H.; Ha, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    The strengthening and westward shift of Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is observed during the recent decades. However, the relative roles of global warming and natural variability on the change in PWC unclearly remain. By conducting numerical atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments using the spatial SST patterns in the global warming and natural modes which are obtained by the multi-variate EOF analysis from three variables including precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and divergent zonal wind, we indicated that the westward shift and strengthening of PWC are caused by the global warming SST pattern in the global warming mode and the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like SST pattern in the natural mode. The SST distribution of the Pacific Ocean (PO) has more influence on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations and tropical precipitation than that of the Indian Ocean (IO) and Atlantic Ocean (AO). The change in precipitation is also related to the equatorial zonal circulations variation through the upward and downward motions of the circulations. The IO and AO SST anomalies in the global warming mode can affect on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations, but the influence of PO SST disturbs the Indian Walker circulation and Atlantic Walker circulation changes by the IO and AO. The zonal shift of PWC is found to be highly associated with a zonal gradient of SST over the PO through the idealized numerical AGCM experiments and predictions of CMIP5 models.

  1. Warming alters energetic structure and function but not resilience of soil food webs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Benjamin; Barnes, Andrew D.; Thakur, Madhav P.; Brose, Ulrich; Ciobanu, Marcel; Reich, Peter B.; Rich, Roy L.; Rosenbaum, Benjamin; Stefanski, Artur; Eisenhauer, Nico

    2017-12-01

    Climate warming is predicted to alter the structure, stability, and functioning of food webs1-5. Yet, despite the importance of soil food webs for energy and nutrient turnover in terrestrial ecosystems, the effects of warming on these food webs—particularly in combination with other global change drivers—are largely unknown. Here, we present results from two complementary field experiments that test the interactive effects of warming with forest canopy disturbance and drought on energy flux in boreal-temperate ecotonal forest soil food webs. The first experiment applied a simultaneous above- and belowground warming treatment (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) to closed-canopy and recently clear-cut forest, simulating common forest disturbance6. The second experiment crossed warming with a summer drought treatment (-40% rainfall) in the clear-cut habitats. We show that warming reduces energy flux to microbes, while forest canopy disturbance and drought facilitates warming-induced increases in energy flux to higher trophic levels and exacerbates the reduction in energy flux to microbes, respectively. Contrary to expectations, we find no change in whole-network resilience to perturbations, but significant losses in ecosystem functioning. Warming thus interacts with forest disturbance and drought, shaping the energetic structure of soil food webs and threatening the provisioning of multiple ecosystem functions in boreal-temperate ecotonal forests.

  2. Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, M. D.; Roberts, C. D.; Balmaseda, M.; Chang, Y.-S.; Chepurin, G.; Ferry, N.; Fujii, Y.; Good, S. A.; Guinehut, S.; Haines, K.; Hernandez, F.; Köhl, A.; Lee, T.; Martin, M. J.; Masina, S.; Masuda, S.; Peterson, K. A.; Storto, A.; Toyoda, T.; Valdivieso, M.; Vernieres, G.; Wang, O.; Xue, Y.

    2017-08-01

    Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0-300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993-2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997-2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997-2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0-700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization `shock' over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady

  3. Geochemistry of coral from Papua New Guinea as a proxy for ENSO ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayliffe, Linda K.; Bird, Michael I.; Gagan, Michael K.; Isdale, Peter J.; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Parker, Bruce; Griffin, David; Nongkas, Michael; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

    2004-12-01

    A Porites sp. coral growing offshore from the Sepik and Ramu Rivers in equatorial northern Papua New Guinea has yielded an accurate 20-year history (1977-1996) of sea surface temperature (SST), river discharge, and wind-induced mixing of the upper water column. Depressions in average SSTs of about 0.5-1.0 °C (indicated by coral Sr/Ca) and markedly diminished freshwater runoff to the coastal ocean (indicated by coral δ18O, δ13C and UV fluorescence) are evident during the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1982-1983, 1987 and 1991-1993. The perturbations recorded by the coral are in good agreement with changes in instrumental SST and river discharge/precipitation records, which are known to be diagnostic of the response of the Pacific Warm Pool ocean-atmosphere system to El Niño. Consideration of coastal ocean dynamics indicates that the establishment of northwest monsoon winds promotes mixing of near-surface waters to greater depths in the first quarter of most years, making the coral record sensitive to changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon cycle. Sudden cooling of SSTs by ˜1°C following westerly wind episodes, as indicated by the coral Sr/Ca, is consistent with greater mixing in the upper water column at these times. Furthermore, the coral UV fluorescence and oxygen isotope data indicate minimal contribution of river runoff to surface ocean waters at the beginning of most years, during the time of maximum discharge. This abrupt shift in flood-plume behaviour appears to reflect the duration and magnitude of northwest monsoon winds, which tend to disperse flood plume waters to a greater extent in the water column when wind-mixing is enhanced. Our results suggest that a multi-proxy geochemical approach to the production of long coral records should provide comprehensive reconstructions of tropical paleoclimate processes operating on interannual timescales.

  4. Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2018-06-01

    We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

  5. Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2017-09-01

    We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

  6. The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal; Watson, Elizabeth J.; Turner, T. Edward; Roland, Thomas P.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Kokfelt, Ulla; Schoning, Kristian; Pratte, Steve; Gallego-Sala, Angela; Charman, Dan J.; Sanderson, Nicole; Garneau, Michelle; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Woulds, Clare; Holden, Joseph; Parry, Lauren; Galloway, Jennifer M.

    2015-01-01

    Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms. PMID:26647837

  7. Sources and pathways of 90Sr in the North Atlantic-Arctic region: present day and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Yongqi; Drange, Helge; Johannessen, Ola M.; Pettersson, Lasse H.

    2009-01-01

    The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides 137 Cs and 90 Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing, the Sellafield reprocessing plant in the Irish Sea (UK), and from the Ob and Yenisey river discharges to the Arctic Ocean, have been simulated using the global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysis fields for the period of 1948-1999. Comparison of the temporal evolution of the observed and the simulated concentrations of 90 Sr has been performed in the Kara Sea. The relative contributions of the different sources on the temporal and spatial distributions of the surface 90 Sr are quantified over the simulated period. It follows that the Ob river discharge dominated the surface 90 Sr over most of the Arctic Ocean and along the eastern and western coasts of Greenland before 1960. During the period of 1980-1990, the atmospheric fallout and the Ob river discharge were equally important for the 90 Sr distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, an attempt has been made to explore the possible dispersion of accidental released 90 Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers under a global warming scenario (2 x CO 2 ). The difference between the present-day and the global warming scenario runs indicates that more of the released 90 Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is confined to the Arctic Ocean in the global warming run, particularly in the near coastal, non-European part of the Arctic Ocean.

  8. Late Cretaceous seasonal ocean variability from the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E S; Pike, Jennifer

    2009-07-09

    The modern Arctic Ocean is regarded as a barometer of global change and amplifier of global warming and therefore records of past Arctic change are critical for palaeoclimate reconstruction. Little is known of the state of the Arctic Ocean in the greenhouse period of the Late Cretaceous epoch (65-99 million years ago), yet records from such times may yield important clues to Arctic Ocean behaviour in near-future warmer climates. Here we present a seasonally resolved Cretaceous sedimentary record from the Alpha ridge of the Arctic Ocean. This palaeo-sediment trap provides new insight into the workings of the Cretaceous marine biological carbon pump. Seasonal primary production was dominated by diatom algae but was not related to upwelling as was previously hypothesized. Rather, production occurred within a stratified water column, involving specially adapted species in blooms resembling those of the modern North Pacific subtropical gyre, or those indicated for the Mediterranean sapropels. With increased CO(2) levels and warming currently driving increased stratification in the global ocean, this style of production that is adapted to stratification may become more widespread. Our evidence for seasonal diatom production and flux testify to an ice-free summer, but thin accumulations of terrigenous sediment within the diatom ooze are consistent with the presence of intermittent sea ice in the winter, supporting a wide body of evidence for low temperatures in the Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean, rather than recent suggestions of a 15 degrees C mean annual temperature at this time.

  9. Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtman, Ben P.; Rousset, Clement; Siqueira, Leo [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Coral Gables, FL (United States); Bitz, Cecilia [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Science, Seattle, WA (United States); Bryan, Frank; Dennis, John; Hearn, Nathan; Loft, Richard; Tomas, Robert; Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Collins, William [University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA (United States); Kinter, James L.; Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2012-09-15

    The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.5 (CCSM3.5) - the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0.5 atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0.625 meridional resolution 0.5 ; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1.2 and meridional resolution varying from 0.27 at the equator to 0.54 in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0.1 ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0.2 C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i.e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the

  10. New perspectives in ocean acidification research: editor's introduction to the special feature on ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munday, Philip L

    2017-09-01

    Ocean acidification, caused by the uptake of additional carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere, will have far-reaching impacts on marine ecosystems (Gattuso & Hansson 2011 Ocean acidification Oxford University Press). The predicted changes in ocean chemistry will affect whole biological communities and will occur within the context of global warming and other anthropogenic stressors; yet much of the biological research conducted to date has tested the short-term responses of single species to ocean acidification conditions alone. While an important starting point, these studies may have limited predictive power because they do not account for possible interactive effects of multiple climate change drivers or for ecological interactions with other species. Furthermore, few studies have considered variation in responses among populations or the evolutionary potential within populations. Therefore, our knowledge about the potential for marine organisms to adapt to ocean acidification is extremely limited. In 2015, two of the pioneers in the field, Ulf Riebesell and Jean-Pierre Gattuso, noted that to move forward as a field of study, future research needed to address critical knowledge gaps in three major areas: (i) multiple environmental drivers, (ii) ecological interactions and (iii) acclimation and adaptation (Riebesell and Gattuso 2015 Nat. Clim. Change 5 , 12-14 (doi:10.1038/nclimate2456)). In May 2016, more than 350 researchers, students and stakeholders met at the 4th International Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO 2 World in Hobart, Tasmania, to discuss the latest advances in understanding ocean acidification and its biological consequences. Many of the papers presented at the symposium reflected this shift in focus from short-term, single species and single stressor experiments towards multi-stressor and multispecies experiments that address knowledge gaps about the ecological impacts of ocean acidification on marine communities. The nine papers in this

  11. Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem; Allen, Julian Icarus; Bopp, Laurent; Schrum, Corinna; Holt, Jason T.; Tsiaras, Kostas P.; Zavatarelli, Marco; Chifflet, Marina; Cannaby, Heather; Dadou, Isabelle C.; Daewel, Ute; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Machú , Eric; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Butenschö n, Momme; Artioli, Yuri; Petihakis, George; Smith, Chris J M; Garç on, Vé ronique C.; Goubanova, Katerina; Le Vu, Briac; Fach, Bettina A.; Salihoglu, Baris; Clementi, Emanuela; Irigoien, Xabier

    2014-01-01

    Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and

  12. Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem

    2014-05-07

    Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and

  13. Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chust, Guillem; Allen, J Icarus; Bopp, Laurent; Schrum, Corinna; Holt, Jason; Tsiaras, Kostas; Zavatarelli, Marco; Chifflet, Marina; Cannaby, Heather; Dadou, Isabelle; Daewel, Ute; Wakelin, Sarah L; Machu, Eric; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Butenschon, Momme; Artioli, Yuri; Petihakis, George; Smith, Chris; Garçon, Veronique; Goubanova, Katerina; Le Vu, Briac; Fach, Bettina A; Salihoglu, Baris; Clementi, Emanuela; Irigoien, Xabier

    2014-07-01

    Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and

  14. The effect of the global warming on marine ecosystems in the Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wassmann, Paul

    2007-01-01

    The article discusses various results from studies of development in the ecosystems in the Arctic region and the effect the global warming may have. The warming in these areas is larger than in the central Europe and influence the economic and social development of the region. The focus is on the fisheries, exploitation of oil and gas, transport, diversity in species, acidification of the oceans, meteorological phenomena etc.. Some environmental and energy related aspects are mentioned. (tk)

  15. Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; hide

    2016-01-01

    We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C

  16. Acute survivorship of the deep-sea coral Lophelia pertusa from the Gulf of Mexico under acidification, warming, and deoxygenation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay J Lunden

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Changing global climate due to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are driving rapid changes in the physical and chemical environment of the oceans via warming, deoxygenation, and acidification. These changes may threaten the persistence of species and populations across a range of latitudes and depths, including species that support diverse biological communities that in turn provide ecological stability and support commercial interests. Worldwide, but particularly in the North Atlantic and deep Gulf of Mexico, Lophelia pertusa forms expansive reefs that support biological communities whose diversity rivals that of tropical coral reefs. In this study, L. pertusa colonies were collected from the Viosca Knoll region in the Gulf of Mexico (390 to 450 m depth, genotyped using microsatellite markers, and exposed to a series of treatments testing survivorship responses to acidification, warming, and deoxygenation. All coral nubbins survived the acidification scenarios tested, between pH of 7.67 and 7.90 and aragonite saturation states of 0.92 and 1.47. However, calcification generally declined with respect to pH, though a disparate response was evident where select individuals net calcified and others exhibited net dissolution near a saturation state of 1. Warming and deoxygenation both had negative effects on survivorship, with up to 100% mortality observed at temperatures above 14ºC and oxygen concentrations of approximately 1.5 ml·l-1. These results suggest that, over the short-term, climate change and OA may negatively impact L. pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico, though the potential for acclimation and the effects of genetic background should be considered in future research.

  17. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  18. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  19. Temperature dependence of plankton community metabolism in the subtropical and tropical oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Garcia-Corral, Lara S.; Holding, Johnna M.; Carrillo-de-Albornoz, Paloma; Steckbauer, Alexandra; Pé rez-Lorenzo, Marí a; Navarro, Nuria; Serret, Pablo; Gasol, Josep M.; Moran, Xose Anxelu G.; Estrada, Marta; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; Bení tez-Barrios, Veró nica; Agusti, Susana; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2017-01-01

    Here we assess the temperature dependence of the metabolic rates (gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and the ratio GPP/CR) of oceanic plankton communities. We compile data from 133 stations of the Malaspina 2010 Expedition, distributed among the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. We used the in vitro technique to measured metabolic rates during 24 h incubations at three different sampled depths: surface, 20%, and 1% of the photosynthetically active radiation measured at surface. We also measured the % of ultraviolet B radiation (UVB) penetrating at surface waters. GPP and CR rates increased with warming, albeit different responses were observed for each sampled depth. The overall GPP/CR ratio declined with warming. Higher activation energies (E-a) were derived for both processes (GPP(Chla) = 0.97; CRChla = 1.26; CRHPA = 0.95 eV) compared to those previously reported. The Indian Ocean showed the highest E-a (GPP(Chla) = 1.70; CRChla = 1.48; CRHPA = 0.57 eV), while the Atlantic Ocean showed the lowest (GPP(Chla) = 0.86; CRChla = 0.77; CRHPA = -0.13 eV). We believe that the difference between previous assessments and the ones presented here can be explained by the overrepresentation of Atlantic communities in the previous data sets. We found that UVB radiation also affects the temperature dependence of surface GPP, which decreased rather than increased under high levels of UVB. Ocean warming, which causes stratification and oligotrophication of the subtropical and tropical oceans, may lead to reduced surface GPP as a result of increased penetration of UVB radiation.

  20. Temperature dependence of plankton community metabolism in the subtropical and tropical oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Garcia-Corral, Lara S.

    2017-06-22

    Here we assess the temperature dependence of the metabolic rates (gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and the ratio GPP/CR) of oceanic plankton communities. We compile data from 133 stations of the Malaspina 2010 Expedition, distributed among the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. We used the in vitro technique to measured metabolic rates during 24 h incubations at three different sampled depths: surface, 20%, and 1% of the photosynthetically active radiation measured at surface. We also measured the % of ultraviolet B radiation (UVB) penetrating at surface waters. GPP and CR rates increased with warming, albeit different responses were observed for each sampled depth. The overall GPP/CR ratio declined with warming. Higher activation energies (E-a) were derived for both processes (GPP(Chla) = 0.97; CRChla = 1.26; CRHPA = 0.95 eV) compared to those previously reported. The Indian Ocean showed the highest E-a (GPP(Chla) = 1.70; CRChla = 1.48; CRHPA = 0.57 eV), while the Atlantic Ocean showed the lowest (GPP(Chla) = 0.86; CRChla = 0.77; CRHPA = -0.13 eV). We believe that the difference between previous assessments and the ones presented here can be explained by the overrepresentation of Atlantic communities in the previous data sets. We found that UVB radiation also affects the temperature dependence of surface GPP, which decreased rather than increased under high levels of UVB. Ocean warming, which causes stratification and oligotrophication of the subtropical and tropical oceans, may lead to reduced surface GPP as a result of increased penetration of UVB radiation.

  1. Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

    2011-01-01

    Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

  2. Ocean climate coupling in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past fifty years: implications and feedbacks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiujun; Murtugudde, Ragu; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The tropical Pacific plays an important role in climate because of its significant air-sea exchanges of heat, freshwater, and carbon dioxide (C02), and because of its direct linkage to climate variability. There are two dominant modes of climate variability in the Tropics: the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). There has been strong evidence of ENSO and PDO impacts on tropical Pacific physics and biogeochemistry, including heat content, ocean circulation (McPhaden and Zhang 2002), and carbon fluxes (Feely ef al. 2006; Wang ef al. 2006). In this study, we apply a basin-scale ocean circulation-ecosystem-carbon model (Wang ef al. 2006) to study the responses of the tropical Pacific ecosystem, biogeochemistry and carbon cycle to climate forcing over the past 50 years. The model produces strong spatial and temporal variability in surface nutrient concentration, phytoplankton biomass, carbon uptake, and sea-to-air C02 flux, which are largely associated with the ENSO phenomenon. In particular, the size of the tropical Pacific C02 source is large during the ENSO cold phase but small during the ENSO warm phase. There are significant decadal variations in tropical Pacific carbon fluxes, reflecting physical and biogeochemical changes associated with the 1977 and 1997/98 PDO shifts. The 1977 regime shift caused 1 0 C warming in sea surface temperature and -50% reduction in surface iron concentration in the Niho3.4 area, leading to decreased biological activity. While there is a large decrease in phytoplankton growth and biomass, reduction in carbon uptake is smaller than expected, due to phytoplankton photoadaption, which increases the carbon to chlorophyll ratio in the upper euphotic zone and enhances sub-surface production. Photoadaption also results in clearer water near the surface, leading to less heating near the ocean surface and allowing more solar radiation to penetrate the subsurface. Our studies

  3. 75 FR 25840 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Recovery Plans; Recovery Plan for the Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtle

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-10

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XS00 Endangered and Threatened Species; Recovery Plans; Recovery Plan for the Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtle AGENCIES...-National Recovery Plan (Plan) for the Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtle (Lepidochelys kempii). The Kemp's Ridley...

  4. 75 FR 12496 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Recovery Plans; Recovery Plan for the Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtle

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XS00 Endangered and Threatened Species; Recovery Plans; Recovery Plan for the Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtle AGENCIES... Plan (Plan) for the Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtle (Lepidochelys kempii). The Kemp's Ridley Recovery Plan is...

  5. Southern Ocean carbon-wind stress feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronselaer, Ben; Zanna, Laure; Munday, David R.; Lowe, Jason

    2018-02-01

    The Southern Ocean is the largest sink of anthropogenic carbon in the present-day climate. Here, Southern Ocean pCO2 and its dependence on wind forcing are investigated using an equilibrium mixed layer carbon budget. This budget is used to derive an expression for Southern Ocean pCO2 sensitivity to wind stress. Southern Ocean pCO2 is found to vary as the square root of area-mean wind stress, arising from the dominance of vertical mixing over other processes such as lateral Ekman transport. The expression for pCO2 is validated using idealised coarse-resolution ocean numerical experiments. Additionally, we show that increased (decreased) stratification through surface warming reduces (increases) the sensitivity of the Southern Ocean pCO2 to wind stress. The scaling is then used to estimate the wind-stress induced changes of atmospheric pCO_2 in CMIP5 models using only a handful of parameters. The scaling is further used to model the anthropogenic carbon sink, showing a long-term reversal of the Southern Ocean sink for large wind stress strength.

  6. Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Anderson

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

  7. Responses of Seasonal Precipitation Intensity to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia

    2016-04-01

    Under global warming, the water vapor increases with rising temperature at the rate of 7%/K. Most previous studies focus on the spatial differences of precipitation and suggest that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier. Our recent studies show a temporal disparity of global precipitation, which the wet season becomes wetter and dry season becomes drier; therefore, the annual range increases. However, such changes in the annual range are not homogeneous globally, and in fact, the drier trend over the ocean is much larger than that over the land, where the dry season does not become drier. Such precipitation change over land is likely because of decreased omega at 500hPa (more upward motion) in the reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2013. The trends of vertical velocity and moist static energy profile over the increased precipitation regions become more unstable. The instability is most likely attributed to the change in specific humility below 400hPa. Further, we will use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate whether the precipitation responses in dry season are different between the ocean and land under global warming.

  8. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hansen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms

  9. Gas hydrate dissociation prolongs acidification of the Anthropocene oceans

    OpenAIRE

    Boudreau, B.P.; Luo, Y.; Meysman, F.J.R.; Middelburg, J

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic warming of the oceans can release methane (CH4) currently stored in sediments as gas hydrates. This CH4 will be oxidized to CO2, thus increasing the acidification of the oceans. We employ a biogeochemical model of the multimillennial carbon cycle to determine the evolution of the oceanic dissolved carbonate system over the next 13?kyr in response to CO2 from gas hydrates, combined with a reasonable scenario for long-term anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Hydrate-derived CO2 will appr...

  10. Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

    2015-01-01

    The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

  11. The oceanic forecasting system near the Shimokita Peninsula, Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In, Teiji; Nakayama, Tomoharu; Matsuura, Yasutaka; Shima, Shigeki; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Awaji, Toshiyuki; Kobayashi, Takuya; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Togawa, Orihiko; Toyoda, Takahiro

    2007-01-01

    The oceanic forecasting system off the Shimokita Peninsula was constructed. To evaluate the performance of this system, we carried out the hindcast experiment for the oceanic conditions in 2003. The results showed the system had good reproducibility. Especially, it was able to reproduce the feature of seasonal variation of the Tsugaru Warm Water (TWW). We expect it has enough performance in actual forecasting. (author)

  12. Deglacial Millennial-scale Calcium Carbonate Spikes in the North Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chikamoto, M. O.; Timmermann, A.; Harada, N.; Okazaki, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Numerous paleoproxy records from the subarctic Pacific Ocean show two very pronounced deglacial peaks in calcium carbonate content for the Heinrich 1/ Bolling-Allerod (H1-BA) transition (at 14 ka) and for the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition (at 11 ka). Focusing on the H1-BA transition, some model simulations capture the North Pacific shift from ventilated to stratified conditions and from cooling to warming conditions via oceanic and atmospheric connections between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. To test the impact of these physical scenarios (variations in ocean stratification and temperature during the H1-BA transition) on calcite production or preservation, we conduct a series of idealized experiments using the Earth System Model Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM. The variations in North Pacific Ocean stratification by anomalous freshwater forcing show low calcite productivity in associated with the subsurface nutrient decline. On the other hand, the rapid H1-BA warming of the North Pacific Ocean induced by anomalous heat forcing in turn increases calcite productivity due to the temperature-dependent growth rate of phytoplankton. These results suggest the possibility that the millennial-scale calcium carbonate peaks are the result of surface biogeochemical responses to the climate transition, not by the deep circulation response.

  13. Imbalanced nutrient recycling in a warmer ocean driven by differential response of extracellular enzymatic activities

    KAUST Repository

    Ayo, Begoñ a; Abad, Naiara; Artolozaga, Itxaso; Azua, Iñ igo; Bañ a, Zuriñ e; Unanue, Marian; Gasol, Josep M.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Iriberri, Juan

    2017-01-01

    Ocean oligotrophication concurrent with warming weakens the capacity of marine primary producers to support marine food webs and act as a CO2 sink, and is believed to result from reduced nutrient inputs associated to the stabilization of the thermocline. However, nutrient supply in the oligotrophic ocean is largely dependent on the recycling of organic matter. This involves hydrolytic processes catalyzed by extracellular enzymes released by bacteria, which temperature-dependence has not yet been evaluated. Here we report a global assessment of the temperature-sensitivity, as represented by the activation energies (Ea ), of extracellular β-glucosidase (βG), leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) and alkaline phosphatase (AP) enzymatic activities, which enable the uptake by bacteria of substrates rich in carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. These Ea were calculated from two different approaches, temperature experimental manipulations and a space-for-time substitution approach, which generated congruent results. The three activities showed contrasting Ea in the subtropical and tropical ocean, with βG increasing the fastest with warming, followed by LAP, while AP showed the smallest increase. The estimated activation energies predict that the hydrolysis products under projected warming scenarios will have higher C:N, C:P and N:P molar ratios than those currently generated, and suggest that the warming of oceanic surface waters leads to a decline in the nutrient supply to the microbial heterotrophic community relative to that of carbon, particularly so for phosphorus, slowing down nutrient recycling and contributing to further ocean oligotrophication. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  14. Imbalanced nutrient recycling in a warmer ocean driven by differential response of extracellular enzymatic activities

    KAUST Repository

    Ayo, Begoña

    2017-06-08

    Ocean oligotrophication concurrent with warming weakens the capacity of marine primary producers to support marine food webs and act as a CO2 sink, and is believed to result from reduced nutrient inputs associated to the stabilization of the thermocline. However, nutrient supply in the oligotrophic ocean is largely dependent on the recycling of organic matter. This involves hydrolytic processes catalyzed by extracellular enzymes released by bacteria, which temperature-dependence has not yet been evaluated. Here we report a global assessment of the temperature-sensitivity, as represented by the activation energies (Ea ), of extracellular β-glucosidase (βG), leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) and alkaline phosphatase (AP) enzymatic activities, which enable the uptake by bacteria of substrates rich in carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. These Ea were calculated from two different approaches, temperature experimental manipulations and a space-for-time substitution approach, which generated congruent results. The three activities showed contrasting Ea in the subtropical and tropical ocean, with βG increasing the fastest with warming, followed by LAP, while AP showed the smallest increase. The estimated activation energies predict that the hydrolysis products under projected warming scenarios will have higher C:N, C:P and N:P molar ratios than those currently generated, and suggest that the warming of oceanic surface waters leads to a decline in the nutrient supply to the microbial heterotrophic community relative to that of carbon, particularly so for phosphorus, slowing down nutrient recycling and contributing to further ocean oligotrophication. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. Imbalanced nutrient recycling in a warmer ocean driven by differential response of extracellular enzymatic activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayo, Begoña; Abad, Naiara; Artolozaga, Itxaso; Azua, Iñigo; Baña, Zuriñe; Unanue, Marian; Gasol, Josep M; Duarte, Carlos M; Iriberri, Juan

    2017-10-01

    Ocean oligotrophication concurrent with warming weakens the capacity of marine primary producers to support marine food webs and act as a CO 2 sink, and is believed to result from reduced nutrient inputs associated to the stabilization of the thermocline. However, nutrient supply in the oligotrophic ocean is largely dependent on the recycling of organic matter. This involves hydrolytic processes catalyzed by extracellular enzymes released by bacteria, which temperature dependence has not yet been evaluated. Here, we report a global assessment of the temperature-sensitivity, as represented by the activation energies (E a ), of extracellular β-glucosidase (βG), leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) and alkaline phosphatase (AP) enzymatic activities, which enable the uptake by bacteria of substrates rich in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, respectively. These E a were calculated from two different approaches, temperature experimental manipulations and a space-for-time substitution approach, which generated congruent results. The three activities showed contrasting E a in the subtropical and tropical ocean, with βG increasing the fastest with warming, followed by LAP, while AP showed the smallest increase. The estimated activation energies predict that the hydrolysis products under projected warming scenarios will have higher C:N, C:P and N:P molar ratios than those currently generated, and suggest that the warming of oceanic surface waters leads to a decline in the nutrient supply to the microbial heterotrophic community relative to that of carbon, particularly so for phosphorus, slowing down nutrient recycling and contributing to further ocean oligotrophication. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

    2017-09-13

    Photosynthetic O 2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O 2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O 2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O 2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q 10  = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O 2 production in a warmer ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  17. Design of the MISMIP+, ISOMIP+, and MISOMIP ice-sheet, ocean, and coupled ice sheet-ocean intercomparison projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asay-Davis, Xylar; Cornford, Stephen; Martin, Daniel; Gudmundsson, Hilmar; Holland, David; Holland, Denise

    2015-04-01

    The MISMIP and MISMIP3D marine ice sheet model intercomparison exercises have become popular benchmarks, and several modeling groups have used them to show how their models compare to both analytical results and other models. Similarly, the ISOMIP (Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project) experiments have acted as a proving ground for ocean models with sub-ice-shelf cavities.As coupled ice sheet-ocean models become available, an updated set of benchmark experiments is needed. To this end, we propose sequel experiments, MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+, with an end goal of coupling the two in a third intercomparison exercise, MISOMIP (the Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project). Like MISMIP3D, the MISMIP+ experiments take place in an idealized, three-dimensional setting and compare full 3D (Stokes) and reduced, hydrostatic models. Unlike the earlier exercises, the primary focus will be the response of models to sub-shelf melting. The chosen configuration features an ice shelf that experiences substantial lateral shear and buttresses the upstream ice, and so is well suited to melting experiments. Differences between the steady states of each model are minor compared to the response to melt-rate perturbations, reflecting typical real-world applications where parameters are chosen so that the initial states of all models tend to match observations. The three ISOMIP+ experiments have been designed to to make use of the same bedrock topography as MISMIP+ and using ice-shelf geometries from MISMIP+ results produced by the BISICLES ice-sheet model. The first two experiments use static ice-shelf geometries to simulate the evolution of ocean dynamics and resulting melt rates to a quasi-steady state when far-field forcing changes in either from cold to warm or from warm to cold states. The third experiment prescribes 200 years of dynamic ice-shelf geometry (with both retreating and advancing ice) based on a BISICLES simulation along with similar flips between warm and

  18. 76 FR 58781 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Recovery Plans; Recovery Plan for the Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtle

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-22

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XS00 Endangered and Threatened Species; Recovery Plans; Recovery Plan for the Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtle AGENCY... Sea Turtle (Lepidochelys kempii). The Recovery Plan is a bi-national plan developed by the NMFS and...

  19. Incubation under Climate Warming Affects Behavioral Lateralisation in Port Jackson Sharks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Vila Pouca

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is warming the world’s oceans at an unprecedented rate. Under predicted end-of-century temperatures, many teleosts show impaired development and altered critical behaviors, including behavioral lateralisation. Since laterality is an expression of brain functional asymmetries, changes in the strength and direction of lateralisation suggest that rapid climate warming might impact brain development and function. However, despite the implications for cognitive functions, the potential effects of elevated temperature in lateralisation of elasmobranch fishes are unknown. We incubated and reared Port Jackson sharks at current and projected end-of-century temperatures and measured preferential detour responses to left or right. Sharks incubated at elevated temperature showed stronger absolute laterality and were significantly biased towards the right relative to sharks reared at current temperature. We propose that animals reared under elevated temperatures might have more strongly lateralized brains to cope with deleterious effects of climate change on brain development and growth. However, far more research in elasmobranch lateralisation is needed before the significance of these results can be fully comprehended. This study provides further evidence that elasmobranchs are susceptible to the effects of future ocean warming, though behavioral mechanisms might allow animals to compensate for some of the challenges imposed by climate change.

  20. Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A

    2017-04-10

    Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

  1. Ocean water cycle: its recent amplification and impact on ocean circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinogradova, Nadya

    2016-04-01

    Oceans are the largest reservoir of the world's water supply, accounting for 97% of the Earth's water and supplying more than 75% of the evaporated and precipitated water in the global water cycle. Therefore, in order to predict the future of the global hydrological cycle, it is essential to understand the changes in its largest component, which is the flux of freshwater over the oceans. Here we examine the change in the ocean water cycle and the ocean's response to such changes that were happening during the last two decades. The analysis is based on a data-constrained ocean state estimate that synthesizes all of the information available in the surface fluxes, winds, observations of sea level, temperature, salinity, geoid, etc., as well as in the physical constraints, dynamics, and conservation statements that are embedded in the equations of the MIT general circulation model. Closeness to observations and dynamical consistency of the solution ensures a physically realistic correspondence between the atmospheric forcing and oceanic fluxes, including the ocean's response to freshwater input. The results show a robust pattern of change in the ocean water cycle in the last twenty years. The pattern of changes indicates a general tendency of drying of the subtropics, and wetting in the tropics and mid-to-high latitudes, following the "rich get richer and the poor get poorer" paradigm in many ocean regions. Using a closed property budget analysis, we then investigate the changes in the oceanic state (salinity, temperature, sea level) during the same twenty-year period. The results are discussed in terms of the origin of surface signatures, and differentiated between those that are attributed to short-term natural variability and those that result from an intensified hydrological cycle due to warming climate.

  2. Effect of climate-ocean changes on the abundance of Pacific saury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Yeong; Suh, Young Sang

    2013-01-01

    Effects of ocean climate changes on the population structure and abundance of Pacific saury (Cololabis sira) were investigated on the basis of climate indices, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, catch and body size information from the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region (Yellow Sea, East China Sea and East/Japan Sea) during the period 1950-2010. It is suggested that oceanic regime shifts in the early 1970s, late 1980s and late 1990s occurred in the TWC region in winter, but the regime shifts in the mid-1970s and in the late 1980s were not evident in the spring SST anomaly series. The abundance and body size of Pacific saury fluctuated in association with the winter oceanic changes in the TWC region. The catch rates and abundance of large size saury were far bellow average during their northward migrations in the TWC region in the years with abnormally cool winters (e.g., 1963, 1970, 1977, 1981-1989 and 2006) and above average in the years with warm winters. These patterns demonstrate decadal-scale variations together with large inter-annual fluctuations in the structure and abundance of Pacific saury in association with the climatic-oceanic changes. These results, along with an alternation of dominant pelagic fish species, indicate the status of the saury population in the TWC region is in good condition, similar to that in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC) region during the warm regime after the late 1980s climate regime shift.

  3. Sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean gas hydrate to climate changes in the period of 1948-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malakhova, Valentina V.; Golubeva, Elena N.; Iakshina, Dina F.

    2017-11-01

    The objective of the present study is to analyze the interactions between a methane hydrates stability zone and the ocean temperature variations and to define the hydrate sensitivity to the contemporary warming in the Arctic Ocean. To obtain the spatial-temporary variability of the ocean bottom temperature we employ the ICMMG regional Arctic-North Atlantic ocean model that has been developed in the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics. With the ice-ocean model the Arctic bottom water temperatures were analyzed. The resulting warming ocean bottom water is spatially inhomogeneous, with a strong impact by the Atlantic inflow on shallow regions of 200-500 m depth. Results of the mathematical modeling of the dynamics of methane hydrate stability zone in the Arctic Ocean sediment are reported. We find that the reduction of the methane hydrate stability zone occurs in the Arctic Ocean between 250 and 400 m water depths within the upper 100 m of sediment in the area influenced by the Atlantic inflow. We have identified the areas of the Arctic Ocean where an increase in methane release is probable to occur at the present time.

  4. The oceanic response to carbon emissions over the next century: investigation using three ocean carbon cycle models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuck, A.; Tyrrell, T.; Holligan, P.M.; Totterdell, I.J.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study of coupled atmospheric carbon dioxide and the biosphere found alarming sensitivity of next-century atmospheric pCO 2 (and hence planetary temperature) to uncertainties in terrestrial processes. Here we investigate whether there is similar sensitivity associated with uncertainties in the behaviour of the ocean carbon cycle. We investigate this important question using three models of the ocean carbon cycle of varying complexity: (1) a new three-box oceanic carbon cycle model; (2) the HILDA multibox model with high vertical resolution at low latitudes; (3) the Hadley Centre ocean general circulation model (HadOCC). These models were used in combination to assess the quantitative significance (to year 2100 pCO 2 ) of potential changes to the ocean stimulated by global warming and other anthropogenic activities over the period 2000-2100. It was found that an increase in sea surface temperature and a decrease in the mixing rate due to stratification give rise to the greatest relative changes in pCO 2 , both being positive feedbacks. We failed to find any comparable large sensitivity due to the ocean

  5. Ocean warming and acidification: Unifying physiological principles linking organism response to ecosystem change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pörtner, H. O.; Bock, C.; Lannig, G.; Lucassen, M.; Mark, F. C.; Stark, A.; Walther, K.; Wittmann, A.

    2011-12-01

    The effects of ocean warming and acidification on individual species of marine ectothermic animals may be based on some common denominators, i.e. physiological responses that can be assumed to reflect unifying principles, common to all marine animal phyla. Identification of these principles requires studies, which reach beyond the species-specific response, and consider multiple stressors, for example temperature, CO2 or extreme hypoxia. Analyses of response and acclimation include functional traits of physiological performance on various levels of biological organisation, from changes in the transcriptome to patterns of acid-base regulation and whole animal thermal tolerance. Conclusions are substantiated by comparisons of species and phyla from temperate, Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems and also benefit from the interpretation of paleo-patterns based on the use of a unifying physiological concept, suitable to integrate relevant environmental factors into a more comprehensive picture. Studying the differential specialization of animals on climate regimes and their sensitivity to climate leads to improved understanding of ongoing and past ecosystem change and should then support more reliable projections of future scenarios. For example, accumulating CO2 causes disturbances in acid-base status. Resilience to ocean acidification may be reflected in the capacity to compensate for these disturbances or their secondary effects. Ion and pH regulation comprise thermally sensitive active and passive transfer processes across membranes. Specific responses of ion transporter genes and their products to temperature and CO2 were found in fish, crustaceans and bivalves. However, compensation may cause unfavourable shifts in energy budget and beyond that hamper cellular and mitochondrial metabolism, which are directly linked to the animal's aerobic performance window. In crabs, oysters and, possibly, fishes, a narrowing of the thermal window is caused by moderate increases in

  6. Warm Bias and Parameterization of Boundary Upwelling in Ocean Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cessi, Paola; Wolfe, Christopher

    2012-11-06

    It has been demonstrated that Eastern Boundary Currents (EBC) are a baroclinic intensification of the interior circulation of the ocean due to the emergence of mesoscale eddies in response to the sharp buoyancy gradients driven by the wind-stress and the thermal surface forcing. The eddies accomplish the heat and salt transport necessary to insure that the subsurface flow is adiabatic, compensating for the heat and salt transport effected by the mean currents. The EBC thus generated occurs on a cross-shore scale of order 20-100 km, and thus this scale needs to be resolved in climate models in order to capture the meridional transport by the EBC. Our result indicate that changes in the near shore currents on the oceanic eastern boundaries are linked not just to local forcing, such as coastal changes in the winds, but depend on the basin-wide circulation as well.

  7. Formation of well-mixed warm water column in central Bohai Sea during summer: Role of high-frequency atmospheric forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Weiwei; Wan, Xiuquan; Wang, Zhankun; Liu, Yulong; Wan, Kai

    2017-12-01

    The influence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing on the formation of a well-mixed summer warm water column in the central Bohai Sea is investigated comparing model simulations driven by daily surface forcing and those using monthly forcing data. In the absence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing, numerical simulations have repeatedly failed to reproduce this vertically uniform column of warm water measured over the past 35 years. However, high-frequency surface forcing is found to strongly influence the structure and distribution of the well-mixed warm water column, and simulations are in good agreement with observations. Results show that high frequency forcing enhances vertical mixing over the central bank, intensifies downward heat transport, and homogenizes the water column to form the Bohai central warm column. Evidence presented shows that high frequency forcing plays a dominant role in the formation of the well-mixed warm water column in summer, even without the effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. The present study thus provides a practical and rational way of further improving the performance of oceanic simulations in the Bohai Sea and can be used to adjust parameterization schemes of ocean models.

  8. Submesoscale processes promote seasonal restratification in the Subantarctic Ocean

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Du Plessis, M

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, the mechanism driving the seasonal restratification of the Southern Ocean mixed layer (ML) is thought to be the onset of springtime warming. Recent developments in numerical modeling and North Atlantic observations have shown...

  9. Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shay, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial mixed layer depth and strength of the stratification that essentially set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the mixed layer. In oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean to form cold wakes which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture transfers are available through the enthalpy fluxes (typically 1 to 1.5 kW m-2) into the hurricane boundary layer. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions, tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. Thus, to constrain these models, having complete 3-D ocean profiles juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements prior, during and subsequent to passage is an absolute necessity framed within regional scale satellite derived fields.

  10. Cocos (Keeling) corals reveal 200 years of multidecadal modulation of southeast Indian Ocean hydrology by Indonesian throughflow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hennekam, R.; Zinke, J.; van Sebille, E.; ten Have, M.; Brummer, G.-J. A.; Reichart, G.-J.

    2018-01-01

    The only low latitude pathway of heat and salt from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean,known as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), has been suggested to modulate Global Mean SurfaceTemperature (GMST) warming through redistribution of surface Pacific Ocean heat. ITF observations are onlyavailable since

  11. Diving of great shearwaters (Puffinus gravis in cold and warm water regions of the South Atlantic Ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A Ronconi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Among the most widespread seabirds in the world, shearwaters of the genus Puffinus are also some of the deepest diving members of the Procellariiformes. Maximum diving depths are known for several Puffinus species, but dive depths or diving behaviour have never been recorded for great shearwaters (P. gravis, the largest member of this genus. This study reports the first high sampling rate (2 s of depth and diving behaviour for Puffinus shearwaters. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Time-depth recorders (TDRs were deployed on two female great shearwaters nesting on Inaccessible Island in the South Atlantic Ocean, recording 10 consecutive days of diving activity. Remote sensing imagery and movement patterns of 8 males tracked by satellite telemetry over the same period were used to identify probable foraging areas used by TDR-equipped females. The deepest and longest dive was to 18.9 m and lasted 40 s, but most (>50% dives were <2 m deep. Diving was most frequent near dawn and dusk, with <0.5% of dives occurring at night. The two individuals foraged in contrasting oceanographic conditions, one in cold (8 to 10°C water of the Sub-Antarctic Front, likely 1000 km south of the breeding colony, and the other in warmer (10 to 16°C water of the Sub-tropical Frontal Zone, at the same latitude as the colony, possibly on the Patagonian Shelf, 4000 km away. The cold water bird spent fewer days commuting, conducted four times as many dives as the warm water bird, dived deeper on average, and had a greater proportion of bottom time during dives. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: General patterns of diving activity were consistent with those of other shearwaters foraging in cold and warm water habitats. Great shearwaters are likely adapted to forage in a wide range of oceanographic conditions, foraging mostly with shallow dives but capable of deep diving.

  12. Ocean acidification in a geoengineering context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Phillip; Turley, Carol

    2012-01-01

    Fundamental changes to marine chemistry are occurring because of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Ocean acidity (H+ concentration) and bicarbonate ion concentrations are increasing, whereas carbonate ion concentrations are decreasing. There has already been an average pH decrease of 0.1 in the upper ocean, and continued unconstrained carbon emissions would further reduce average upper ocean pH by approximately 0.3 by 2100. Laboratory experiments, observations and projections indicate that such ocean acidification may have ecological and biogeochemical impacts that last for many thousands of years. The future magnitude of such effects will be very closely linked to atmospheric CO2; they will, therefore, depend on the success of emission reduction, and could also be constrained by geoengineering based on most carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques. However, some ocean-based CDR approaches would (if deployed on a climatically significant scale) re-locate acidification from the upper ocean to the seafloor or elsewhere in the ocean interior. If solar radiation management were to be the main policy response to counteract global warming, ocean acidification would continue to be driven by increases in atmospheric CO2, although with additional temperature-related effects on CO2 and CaCO3 solubility and terrestrial carbon sequestration. PMID:22869801

  13. The role of salinity on the dynamics of the Arabian Sea mini warm pool

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nyadjro, E.S.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Murty, V.S.N.; Shriver, J.F.

    using a simplified image reconstruction algorithm, spatial and temporal aggregation of TB and correction for instrument errors (calibration), foam cover, geophysical parameters (e.g. surface roughness, sun and moon glint) and radio frequency 4..., J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 22, 1588–1601. Kurian, J., and P. N. Vinayachandran (2007), Mechanisms of formation of the Arabian Sea mini warm pool in a high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C05009, doi:10...

  14. 76 FR 20302 - Listing Endangered and Threatened Species; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Chinook Salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-12

    ... a Petition To List Chinook Salmon AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic... salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Upper Klamath and Trinity Rivers Basin as threatened or... conduct a status review of the Chinook salmon in the Upper Klamath and Trinity Rivers Basin to determine...

  15. 77 FR 16538 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Initiation of 5-Year Review for the North Atlantic Right Whale...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-21

    ... and Threatened Species; Initiation of 5-Year Review for the North Atlantic Right Whale and the North Pacific Right Whale AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric...: NMFS announces a 5-year review of North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) and North Pacific...

  16. Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature

  17. Oligocene sea water temperatures offshore Wilkes Land (Antarctica) indicate warm and stable glacial-interglacial variation and show no 'late Oligocene warming'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Julian; Bijl, Peter; Peterse, Francien; Schouten, Stefan; Salabarnada, Ariadna; Bohaty, Steven; Escutia, Carlota; Brinkhuis, Henk; Sangiorgi, Francesca

    2017-04-01

    At present, warming of the waters below the Antarctic ice shelves is a major contributor to the instability of the Antarctic cryosphere. In order to get insight into future melt behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet, it is important to look at past warm periods that can serve as an analogue for the future. The Oligocene ( 34-23 Ma) is a period within the range of CO2 concentrations predicted by the latest IPCC report for the coming century and is characterized by a very dynamic Antarctic ice sheet, as suggested by benthic δ18O records from ice-distal sites. We suspect that, like today, environmental changes in the Southern Ocean are in part responsible for this dynamicity. To gain more insight into this, we have reconstructed sea water temperatures (SWT) based on Thaumarchaeotal lipids (TEX86) for the Oligocene record obtained from the ice-proximal Site U1356 (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program), offshore Wilkes Land. Part of our record shows a strong coupling between the lithology and SWT, which we attribute to glacial-interglacial variation. Our data shows that both glacial and interglacial temperatures are relatively warm throughout the Oligocene: 14°C and 18°C respectively, which is consistent with previously published estimates based on UK'37 and clumped isotopes for the early Oligocene. Our SST records show only a minor decline between 30 and 24 Ma, and thus show no evidence for a 'late Oligocene warming' as was suggested based on benthic δ18O records from low latitudes. Instead, the discrepancy between our SST trend and the δ18O trend suggests that the late-Oligocene benthic δ18O decrease is likely related to a decline in ice volume. After 24 Ma, however, glacial-interglacial temperature variation appears to increase. In particular, some large temperature drops occur, one of which can be related to the Mi-1 event and a major expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet.

  18. The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Nino Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shu-Chih; Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Nino event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances are compared with those using static error covariances that are not flow dependent. The flow-dependent error covariances reflect the error structures related to the background ENSO instability and are generated by the coupled breeding method. The ocean analyses used in this study result from the assimilation of temperature and salinity, with the salinity data available from Argo floats. Of the analyses, the one using information from the coupled bred vectors (BV) replicates the observed equatorial long wave propagation best and exhibits more warming features leading to the 2006 El Nino event. The forecasts initialized from the BV-based analysis agree best with the observations in terms of the growth of the warm anomaly through two warming phases. This better performance is related to the impact of the salinity analysis on the state evolution in the equatorial thermocline. The early warming is traced back to salinity differences in the upper ocean of the equatorial central Pacific, while the second warming, corresponding to the mature phase, is associated with the effect of the salinity assimilation on the depth of the thermocline in the western equatorial Pacific. The series of forecast experiments conducted here show that the structure of the salinity in the initial conditions is important to the forecasts of the extension of the warm pool and the evolution of the 2006 El Ni o event.

  19. Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Queiros, A. M.

    2016-02-01

    Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an inter-disciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterise a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual level responses, while acidification has a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors

  20. The Once and Future North Atlantic: How the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Can Increase Stakeholder Preparedness in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, P.; de Mutsert, K.

    2013-12-01

    Paleoclimatic reconstructions, particularly from periods that may serve as an analog to the present and future greenhouse-driven warming, are increasingly being used to validate climate models as well as to provide constraints on broad impacts such as global temperature and sea level change. However, paleoclimatic data remains under-utilized in decision-making processes by stakeholders, who typically rely on scenarios produced by computer models or naive extrapolation of present trends. We hope to increase the information available to stakeholders by incorporating paleoclimatic data from the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ~3ma) into a fisheries model of the North Atlantic. North Atlantic fisheries are economically important and are expected to be sensitive to climatic change. State of the art climate models remain unable to realistically simulate the North Atlantic, both over the observational record as well as during times in the geologic past such as the mPWP. Given that the mPWP shares many of the same boundary conditions as those likely to be seen in the near future, we seek to answer the question 'What if the climate of the future looks more like the climate of the past?' relative to what state of the art computer models currently project. To that end we have created a suite of future North Atlantic Ocean scenarios using output from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 modeling experiments, as well as the PRISM group's Mid-Pliocene ocean reconstruction. We use these scenarios to drive an ecosystem-based fisheries model using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software to identify differences between the scenarios as the North Atlantic Ocean changes through time. Additionally, we examine the spatial component of these differences by using the Ecospace module of EwE. Whereas the Ecosim realizations are intended to capture the dynamic response to changing oceanographic parameters (SST, SSS, DO) over time, the Ecospace experiments are intended to explore the impact of different

  1. Fugitive carbon dioxide: It's not hiding in the ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, R.A.

    1992-01-01

    The fugitive carbon is the difference between the 7 billion or so tons that spew as carbon dioxide from smokestacks and burning tropical forests and the 3.4 billion tons known to stay in the atmosphere. Finding the other 3 billion or 4 billion tons has frustrated researchers for the past 15 years. The oceans certainly take up some of it. Any forecast of global warming has to be based on how much of the carbon dioxide released by human activity will remain in the atmosphere, and predictions vary by 30% depending on the mix of oceanic and terrestrial processes assumed to be removing the gas. What's more, those predictions assume that the processes at work today will go on operating. But not knowing where all the carbon is going raises the unnerving possibility that whatever processes are removing it may soon fall down on the job without warning, accelerating any warming. Such concerns add urgency to the question of whether the ocean harbors the missing carbon. But there's no simple way to find out. The obvious strategy might seem to be to measure the carbon content of the ocean repeatedly to see how much it increases year by year. The trouble is that several billion tons of added carbon, though impressive on a human scale, are undetectable against the huge swings in ocean carbon that occur from season to season, year to year, and place to place

  2. Phytoplankton Community Structure in 2011-2013 Compared to the Extratropical Warming Event of 2014-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, X.; Peterson, W. T.

    2018-02-01

    Coastal waters of the Northern California Current experienced "normal" ocean conditions in 2011-2012, weak upwelling in 2013-2014, then suddenly warmed in September 2014. The response of phytoplankton community structure to contrasting ocean conditions was determined from samples collected off Newport, Oregon. Cluster analysis identified three prominent phytoplankton community types: one that occurred during the upwelling season characterized by the highest abundance and diversity of diatoms, a preupwelling/relaxation community characterized by lower abundance, lowest diversity of diatoms and dinoflagellates, and another one associated with the warm anomalies from September 2014 through 2015 with reduced diatom abundance and diversity but the highest dinoflagellate diversity. The changes of diatom and dinoflagellate community were correlated with local factors (silicate, silicate: nitrate ratios, temperature, and salinity), and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  3. Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

    2018-05-01

    An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

  4. Transgenerational acclimation of fishes to climate change and ocean acidification

    OpenAIRE

    Munday, Philip L.

    2014-01-01

    There is growing concern about the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine organisms and ecosystems, yet the potential for acclimation and adaptation to these threats is poorly understood. Whereas many short-term experiments report negative biological effects of ocean warming and acidification, new studies show that some marine species have the capacity to acclimate to warmer and more acidic environments across generations. Consequently, transgenerational plasticity may be...

  5. Implementation of methane cycling for deep-time global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Shaffer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean–atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean–atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example

  6. Mass Coral Bleaching in 2010 in the Southern Caribbean

    OpenAIRE

    Alemu I, Jahson Berhane; Clement, Ysharda

    2014-01-01

    Ocean temperatures are increasing globally and the Caribbean is no exception. An extreme ocean warming event in 2010 placed Tobago's coral reefs under severe stress resulting in widespread coral bleaching and threatening the livelihoods that rely on them. The bleaching response of four reef building taxa was monitored over a six month period across three major reefs systems in Tobago. By identifying taxa resilient to bleaching we propose to assist local coral reef managers in the decision mak...

  7. The response of three dominant Arctic copepod species to elevated CO2 concentrations and water temperatures

    OpenAIRE

    Hildebrandt, Nicole

    2014-01-01

    Ocean acidification (OA) and ocean warming are threatening marine life. Within the framework of the research project BIOACID, this thesis aims to provide a comprehensive overview on the sensitivity of the dominant Arctic calanoid copepod species Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis and C. hyperboreus to elevated pCO2 and temperatures. Controlled laboratory experiments have shown that subadult and adult Calanus life stages are rather robust to the direct effects of OA during both active and rest...

  8. Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera

    2010-06-15

    A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

  9. Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricke, Katharine L; Caldeira, Ken

    2014-01-01

    It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO 2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO 2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations. (letter)

  10. Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, Katharine L.; Caldeira, Ken

    2014-12-01

    It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6-30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.

  11. Splitting of Atlantic water transport towards the Arctic Ocean into the Fram Strait and Barents Sea Branches - mechanisms and consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beszczynska-Möller, Agnieszka; Skagseth, Øystein; von Appen, Wilken-Jon; Walczowski, Waldemar; Lien, Vidar

    2016-04-01

    The heat content in the Arctic Ocean is to a large extent determined by oceanic advection from the south. During the last two decades the extraordinary warm Atlantic water (AW) inflow has been reported to progress through the Nordic Seas into the Arctic Ocean. Warm anomalies can result from higher air temperatures (smaller heat loss) in the Nordic Seas, and/or from an increased oceanic advection. But the ultimate fate of warm anomalies of Atlantic origin depends strongly on their two possible pathways towards the Arctic Ocean. The AW temperature changes from 7-10°C at the entrance to the Nordic Seas, to 6-6.5°C in the Barents Sea opening and 3-3.5°C as the AW leaving Fram Strait enters the Arctic Ocean. When AW passes through the shallow Barents Sea, nearly all its heat is lost due to atmospheric cooling and AW looses its signature. In the deep Fram Strait the upper part of Atlantic water becomes transformed into a less saline and colder surface layer and thus AW preserves its warm core. A significant warming and high variability of AW volume transport was observed in two recent decades in the West Spitsbergen Current, representing the Fram Strait Branch of Atlantic inflow. The AW inflow through Fram Strait carries between 26 and 50 TW of heat into the Arctic Ocean. While the oceanic heat influx to the Barents Sea is of a similar order, the heat leaving it through the northern exit into the Arctic Ocean is negligible. The relative strength of two Atlantic water branches through Fram Strait and the Barents Sea governs the oceanic heat transport into the Arctic Ocean. According to recently proposed mechanism, the Atlantic water flow in the Barents Sea Branch is controlled by the strength of atmospheric low over the northern Barents Sea, acting through a wind-induced Ekman divergence, which intensifies eastward AW flow. The Atlantic water transport in the Fram Strait Branch is mainly forced by the large-scale low-pressure system over the eastern Norwegian and

  12. Depth perception: the need to report ocean biogeochemical rates as functions of temperature, not depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Peter G.; Peltzer, Edward T.

    2017-08-01

    For over 50 years, ocean scientists have oddly represented ocean oxygen consumption rates as a function of depth but not temperature in most biogeochemical models. This unique tradition or tactic inhibits useful discussion of climate change impacts, where specific and fundamental temperature-dependent terms are required. Tracer-based determinations of oxygen consumption rates in the deep sea are nearly universally reported as a function of depth in spite of their well-known microbial basis. In recent work, we have shown that a carefully determined profile of oxygen consumption rates in the Sargasso Sea can be well represented by a classical Arrhenius function with an activation energy of 86.5 kJ mol-1, leading to a Q10 of 3.63. This indicates that for 2°C warming, we will have a 29% increase in ocean oxygen consumption rates, and for 3°C warming, a 47% increase, potentially leading to large-scale ocean hypoxia should a sufficient amount of organic matter be available to microbes. Here, we show that the same principles apply to a worldwide collation of tracer-based oxygen consumption rate data and that some 95% of ocean oxygen consumption is driven by temperature, not depth, and thus will have a strong climate dependence. The Arrhenius/Eyring equations are no simple panacea and they require a non-equilibrium steady state to exist. Where transient events are in progress, this stricture is not obeyed and we show one such possible example. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

  13. Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and

  14. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  15. Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

    2009-12-01

    The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

  16. Decarbonization and sequestration for mitigating global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinberg, M.

    2000-01-01

    Mitigating the global warming greenhouse effect while maintaining a fossil fuel economy, requires improving efficiency of utilization of fossil fuels, use of high hydrogen content fossil fuels, decarbonization of fossil fuels, and sequestering of carbon and CO 2 applied to all the sectors of the economy, electric power generation, transportation, and industrial, and domestic power and heat generation. Decarbonization means removal of carbon as C or CO 2 either before or after fossil fuel combustion and sequestration means disposal of the recovered C or CO 2 including its utilization. Removal and recovery of CO 2 from power generation plants and sequestration in the ocean represents one possibility of making a major impact on reducing CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. This paper will briefly review the progress made in ocean disposal and present some alternative schemes. (author)

  17. Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

    2018-05-01

    The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

  18. Effect of global warming in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suphat Vongvisessomjai

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The earth absorbs much radiation from the sun to warm the atmosphere, the land, and the oceans. This energy is reradiatedback into space. In the past, the thermal budget of the earth is more or less balanced, with radiation from the sun onpar with thermal radiation from the earth. With increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, some of the thermal radiationis absorbed by these gases resulting in an increase of global mean surface temperature, melting of polar ices and thuscontributing to a rising of sea level. However, sea-level changes depend upon four main processes: 1 Glacio-eustasy, 2Emergence/subsidence of land, 3 Man-made activities, and 4 Ocean-atmosphere effects. The assessment report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1990, which was based on past data in Europe and the USA, including theNorth Atlantic Ocean, published a mean temperature of 14°C and an actual increase of 1°C in the last century, plus an increaseof CO2 from 370 ppmv to 550 ppmv, and a three-fold temperature increase of 3°C in this century. All these changes are projectinga sea level rise (SLR of 31-110 cm per century on global scale, which was in fact applicable to the North Atlantic. Theassessment report of the IPCC Working Group I (1996 has realized that differential SLR occurs due to different geographicalconditions. It identified ten regions on earth and compared the actual climate change to what it was postulated to be, andcame up with SLR of 15-95 cm per century. The assessment report of the IPCC Working Group II (2001 employed improveddata obtained from tide gauges and satellite images as well as mathematical model results with the most convincing evidencein the North Atlantic, and it concluded an SLR of 9-88 cm per century. But it had, however, noted a lack of data in the Pacificand Indian Ocean. The assessment report of the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (SPM, 2007 that included six differentarctic and antarctic climate science

  19. Hemispheric Asymmetry of Global Warming Explained by a Conceptual Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funke, C. S.; Alexeev, V. A.

    2017-12-01

    Polar Amplification, the process of amplified warming at high latitudes, manifests itself differently in the Arctic and Antarctic. Not only is the temperature increase in the Arctic more pronounced than in the Antarctic but the dramatic sea ice decline in the Arctic over the last few decades also contrasts sharply with trendless to weak positive trend of Antarctic sea ice throughout the same period. This asymmetric behavior is often partly attributed to the differences in configuration of continents in the Arctic and Antarctic: the Arctic Ocean is surrounded by land while the Southern Ocean has a continent in the middle. A simple conceptual energy balance model of Budyko-Sellers type, accounting for differences between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, is applied to study the mechanisms of climate sensitivity to a variety of forcings. Asymmetry in major modes of variability is explained using an eigenmode analysis of the linearized model. Negative forcings over Antarctica such as from ozone depletion were found to have an amplified effect on southern hemisphere climate and may be an important cause of the muted warming and slightly positive Antarctic sea ice trend.

  20. Drift in ocean currents impacts intergenerational microbial exposure to temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doblin, Martina A; van Sebille, Erik

    2016-05-17

    Microbes are the foundation of marine ecosystems [Falkowski PG, Fenchel T, Delong EF (2008) Science 320(5879):1034-1039]. Until now, the analytical framework for understanding the implications of ocean warming on microbes has not considered thermal exposure during transport in dynamic seascapes, implying that our current view of change for these critical organisms may be inaccurate. Here we show that upper-ocean microbes experience along-trajectory temperature variability up to 10 °C greater than seasonal fluctuations estimated in a static frame, and that this variability depends strongly on location. These findings demonstrate that drift in ocean currents can increase the thermal exposure of microbes and suggests that microbial populations with broad thermal tolerance will survive transport to distant regions of the ocean and invade new habitats. Our findings also suggest that advection has the capacity to influence microbial community assemblies, such that regions with strong currents and large thermal fluctuations select for communities with greatest plasticity and evolvability, and communities with narrow thermal performance are found where ocean currents are weak or along-trajectory temperature variation is low. Given that fluctuating environments select for individual plasticity in microbial lineages, and that physiological plasticity of ancestors can predict the magnitude of evolutionary responses of subsequent generations to environmental change [Schaum CE, Collins S (2014) Proc Biol Soc 281(1793):20141486], our findings suggest that microbial populations in the sub-Antarctic (∼40°S), North Pacific, and North Atlantic will have the most capacity to adapt to contemporary ocean warming.

  1. Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

  2. Assessing and Upgrading Ocean Mixing for the Study of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Lindo, F.; Tulsee, V.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Dubovikov, M. S.; Leboissetier, A.

    2016-12-01

    Climate is critical. Climate variability affects us all; Climate Change is a burning issue. Droughts, floods, other extreme events, and Global Warming's effects on these and problems such as sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption threaten lives. Citizens must be informed to make decisions concerning climate such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to keep warming within bounds. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. To make useful predictions we must realistically model each component of the climate system, including the ocean, whose critical role includes transporting&storing heat and dissolved CO2. We need physically based parameterizations of key ocean processes that can't be put explicitly in a global climate model, e.g. vertical&lateral mixing. The NASA-GISS turbulence group uses theory to model mixing including: 1) a comprehensive scheme for small scale vertical mixing, including convection&shear, internal waves & double-diffusion, and bottom tides 2) a new parameterization for the lateral&vertical mixing by mesoscale eddies. For better understanding we write our own programs. To assess the modelling MATLAB programs visualize and calculate statistics, including means, standard deviations and correlations, on NASA-GISS OGCM output with different mixing schemes and help us study drift from observations. We also try to upgrade the schemes, e.g. the bottom tidal mixing parameterizations' roughness, calculated from high resolution topographic data using Gaussian weighting functions with cut-offs. We study the effects of their parameters to improve them. A FORTRAN program extracts topography data subsets of manageable size for a MATLAB program, tested on idealized cases, to visualize&calculate roughness on. Students are introduced to modeling a complex system, gain a deeper appreciation of climate science, programming skills and familiarity with MATLAB, while furthering climate

  3. Glacial greenhouse-gas fluctuations controlled by ocean circulation changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmittner, Andreas; Galbraith, Eric D

    2008-11-20

    Earth's climate and the concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) varied strongly on millennial timescales during past glacial periods. Large and rapid warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic were followed by more gradual cooling, and are highly correlated with fluctuations of N(2)O as recorded in ice cores. Antarctic temperature variations, on the other hand, were smaller and more gradual, showed warming during the Greenland cold phase and cooling while the North Atlantic was warm, and were highly correlated with fluctuations in CO(2). Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have often been invoked to explain the physical characteristics of these Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations, but the mechanisms for the greenhouse-gas variations and their linkage to the AMOC have remained unclear. Here we present simulations with a coupled model of glacial climate and biogeochemical cycles, forced only with changes in the AMOC. The model simultaneously reproduces characteristic features of the Dansgaard-Oeschger temperature, as well as CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations. Despite significant changes in the land carbon inventory, CO(2) variations on millennial timescales are dominated by slow changes in the deep ocean inventory of biologically sequestered carbon and are correlated with Antarctic temperature and Southern Ocean stratification. In contrast, N(2)O co-varies more rapidly with Greenland temperatures owing to fast adjustments of the thermocline oxygen budget. These results suggest that ocean circulation changes were the primary mechanism that drove glacial CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations on millennial timescales.

  4. Transcriptomic Changes in Coral Holobionts Provide Insights into Physiological Challenges of Future Climate and Ocean Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulina Kaniewska

    Full Text Available Tropical reef-building coral stress levels will intensify with the predicted rising atmospheric CO2 resulting in ocean temperature and acidification increase. Most studies to date have focused on the destabilization of coral-dinoflagellate symbioses due to warming oceans, or declining calcification due to ocean acidification. In our study, pH and temperature conditions consistent with the end-of-century scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC caused major changes in photosynthesis and respiration, in addition to decreased calcification rates in the coral Acropora millepora. Population density of symbiotic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium under high levels of ocean acidification and temperature (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP8.5 decreased to half of that found under present day conditions, with photosynthetic and respiratory rates also being reduced by 40%. These physiological changes were accompanied by evidence for gene regulation of calcium and bicarbonate transporters along with components of the organic matrix. Metatranscriptomic RNA-Seq data analyses showed an overall down regulation of metabolic transcripts, and an increased abundance of transcripts involved in circadian clock control, controlling the damage of oxidative stress, calcium signaling/homeostasis, cytoskeletal interactions, transcription regulation, DNA repair, Wnt signaling and apoptosis/immunity/ toxins. We suggest that increased maintenance costs under ocean acidification and warming, and diversion of cellular ATP to pH homeostasis, oxidative stress response, UPR and DNA repair, along with metabolic suppression, may underpin why Acroporid species tend not to thrive under future environmental stress. Our study highlights the potential increased energy demand when the coral holobiont is exposed to high levels of ocean warming and acidification.

  5. Transcriptomic Changes in Coral Holobionts Provide Insights into Physiological Challenges of Future Climate and Ocean Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaniewska, Paulina; Chan, Chon-Kit Kenneth; Kline, David; Ling, Edmund Yew Siang; Rosic, Nedeljka; Edwards, David; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Dove, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Tropical reef-building coral stress levels will intensify with the predicted rising atmospheric CO2 resulting in ocean temperature and acidification increase. Most studies to date have focused on the destabilization of coral-dinoflagellate symbioses due to warming oceans, or declining calcification due to ocean acidification. In our study, pH and temperature conditions consistent with the end-of-century scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) caused major changes in photosynthesis and respiration, in addition to decreased calcification rates in the coral Acropora millepora. Population density of symbiotic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium) under high levels of ocean acidification and temperature (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP8.5) decreased to half of that found under present day conditions, with photosynthetic and respiratory rates also being reduced by 40%. These physiological changes were accompanied by evidence for gene regulation of calcium and bicarbonate transporters along with components of the organic matrix. Metatranscriptomic RNA-Seq data analyses showed an overall down regulation of metabolic transcripts, and an increased abundance of transcripts involved in circadian clock control, controlling the damage of oxidative stress, calcium signaling/homeostasis, cytoskeletal interactions, transcription regulation, DNA repair, Wnt signaling and apoptosis/immunity/ toxins. We suggest that increased maintenance costs under ocean acidification and warming, and diversion of cellular ATP to pH homeostasis, oxidative stress response, UPR and DNA repair, along with metabolic suppression, may underpin why Acroporid species tend not to thrive under future environmental stress. Our study highlights the potential increased energy demand when the coral holobiont is exposed to high levels of ocean warming and acidification.

  6. Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. A review of recent findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Chunzai [NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States); Kucharski, Fred; Barimalala, Rondrotiana [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Section Trieste (Italy); Bracco, Annalisa [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia, Inst. of Tech., Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2009-08-15

    Recent studies found that tropical Atlantic variability may affect the climate in both the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, possibly modulating the Indian summer monsoon and Pacific ENSO events. A warm tropical Atlantic Ocean forces a Gill-Matsuno-type quadrupole response with a low-level anticyclone located over India that weakens the Indian monsoon circulation, and vice versa for a cold tropical Atlantic Ocean. The tropical Atlantic Ocean can also induce changes in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). especially along the coast of Africa and in the western side of the Indian basin. Additionally, it can influence the tropical Pacific Ocean via an atmospheric teleconnection that is associated with the Atlantic Walker circulation. Although the Pacific El Nino does not contemporaneously correlate with the Atlantic Nino, anomalous warming or cooling of the two equatorial oceans can form an inter-basin SST gradient that induces surface zonal wind anomalies over equatorial South America and other regions in both ocean basins. The zonal wind anomalies act as a bridge linking the two ocean basins, and in turn reinforce the inter-basin SST gradient through the atmospheric Walker circulation and oceanic processes. Thus, a positive feedback seems to exist for climate variability of the tropical Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and atmospheric system, in which the inter-basin SST gradient is coupled to the overlying atmospheric wind. (orig.)

  7. The 2014-2015 warming anomaly in the Southern California Current System observed by underwater gliders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaba, Katherine D.; Rudnick, Daniel L.

    2016-02-01

    Large-scale patterns of positive temperature anomalies persisted throughout the surface waters of the North Pacific Ocean during 2014-2015. In the Southern California Current System, measurements by our sustained network of underwater gliders reveal the coastal effects of the recent warming. Regional upper ocean temperature anomalies were greatest since the initiation of the glider network in 2006. Additional observed physical anomalies included a depressed thermocline, high stratification, and freshening; induced biological consequences included changes in the vertical distribution of chlorophyll fluorescence. Contemporaneous surface heat flux and wind strength perturbations suggest that local anomalous atmospheric forcing caused the unusual oceanic conditions.

  8. Observational Analysis of Cloud and Precipitation in Midlatitude Cyclones: Northern Versus Southern Hemisphere Warm Fronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

    2012-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones are responsible for most of the precipitation and wind damage in the midlatitudes during the cold season, but there are still uncertainties on how they will change in a warming climate. An ubiquitous problem amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a lack of cloudiness over the southern oceans that may be in part caused by a lack of clouds in cyclones. We analyze CloudSat, CALIPSO and AMSR-E observations for 3 austral and boreal cold seasons and composite cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation at the warm fronts for northern and southern hemisphere oceanic cyclones. We find that cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation rate are similar in the early stage of the cyclone life cycle in both northern and southern hemispheres. As cyclones evolve and reach their mature stage, cloudiness and precipitation at the warm front increase in the northern hemisphere but decrease in the southern hemisphere. This is partly caused by lower amounts of precipitable water being available to southern hemisphere cyclones, and smaller increases in wind speed as the cyclones evolve. Southern hemisphere cloud occurrence at the warm front is found to be more sensitive to the amount of moisture in the warm sector than to wind speeds. This suggests that cloudiness in southern hemisphere storms may be more susceptible to changes in atmospheric water vapor content, and thus to changes in surface temperature than their northern hemisphere counterparts. These differences between northern and southern hemisphere cyclones are statistically robust, indicating A-Train-based analyses as useful tools for evaluation of GCMs in the next IPCC report.

  9. Disease prevalence and snail predation associated with swell-generated damage on the threatened coral, Acropora palmata (Lamarck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allan Joseph Bright

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances such as tropical storms cause coral mortality and reduce coral cover as a direct result of physical damage. Storms can be one of the most important disturbances in coral reef ecosystems, and it is crucial to understand their long-term impacts on coral populations. The primary objective of this study was to determine trends in disease prevalence and snail predation on damaged and undamaged colonies of the threatened coral species, Acropora palmata, following an episode of heavy ocean swells in the US Virgin Islands (USVI. At three sites on St. Thomas and St. John, colonies of A. palmata were surveyed monthly over one year following a series of large swells in March 2008 that fragmented 30 to 93% of colonies on monitored reefs. Post-disturbance surveys conducted from April 2008 through March 2009 showed that swell-generated damage to A. palmata caused negative indirect effects that compounded the initial direct effects of physical disturbance. During the 12 months after the swell event, white pox disease prevalence was 41% higher for colonies that sustained damage from the swells than for undamaged colonies (df = 207, p = 0.01 with greatest differences in disease prevalence occurring during warm water months. In addition, the corallivorous snail, Coralliophila abbreviata, was 46% more abundant on damaged corals than undamaged corals during the 12 months after the swell event (df = 207, p = 0.006.

  10. Disease prevalence and snail predation associated with swell-generated damage on the threatened coral, Acropora palmata (Lamarck)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Allan J.; Rogers, Caroline S.; Brandt, Marilyn E.; Muller, Erinn; Smith, Tyler B.

    2016-01-01

    Disturbances such as tropical storms cause coral mortality and reduce coral cover as a direct result of physical damage. Storms can be one of the most important disturbances in coral reef ecosystems, and it is crucial to understand their long-term impacts on coral populations. The primary objective of this study was to determine trends in disease prevalence and snail predation on damaged and undamaged colonies of the threatened coral species, Acropora palmata, following an episode of heavy ocean swells in the US Virgin Islands (USVI). At three sites on St. Thomas and St. John, colonies of A. palmata were surveyed monthly over 1 year following a series of large swells in March 2008 that fragmented 30–93% of colonies on monitored reefs. Post-disturbance surveys conducted from April 2008 through March 2009 showed that swell-generated damage to A. palmata caused negative indirect effects that compounded the initial direct effects of physical disturbance. During the 12 months after the swell event, white pox disease prevalence was 41% higher for colonies that sustained damage from the swells than for undamaged colonies (df = 207, p = 0.01) with greatest differences in disease prevalence occurring during warm water months. In addition, the corallivorous snail, Coralliophila abbreviata, was 46% more abundant on damaged corals than undamaged corals during the 12 months after the swell event (df = 207, p = 0.006).

  11. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Returns to Near Normal State, Mar, 14, 1998

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Mar. 14, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The image shows that the sea surface height along the central equatorial Pacific has returned to a near normal state. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition. Remnants of the El Nino warm water pool, shown in red and white, are situated to the north and south of the equator. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with a detailed view of how the 1997-98 El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather

  12. High-latitude ocean ventilation and its role in Earth's climate transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naveira Garabato, Alberto C; MacGilchrist, Graeme A; Brown, Peter J; Evans, D Gwyn; Meijers, Andrew J S; Zika, Jan D

    2017-09-13

    The processes regulating ocean ventilation at high latitudes are re-examined based on a range of observations spanning all scales of ocean circulation, from the centimetre scales of turbulence to the basin scales of gyres. It is argued that high-latitude ocean ventilation is controlled by mechanisms that differ in fundamental ways from those that set the overturning circulation. This is contrary to the assumption of broad equivalence between the two that is commonly adopted in interpreting the role of the high-latitude oceans in Earth's climate transitions. Illustrations of how recognizing this distinction may change our view of the ocean's role in the climate system are offered.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Authors.

  13. Weak oceanic heat transport as a cause of the instability of glacial climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colin de Verdiere, Alain [Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans, Alain Colin de Verdiere, Brest 3 (France); Te Raa, L. [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO, The Hague (Netherlands)

    2010-12-15

    The stability of the thermohaline circulation of modern and glacial climates is compared with the help of a two dimensional ocean - atmosphere - sea ice coupled model. It turns out to be more unstable as less freshwater forcing is required to induce a polar halocline catastrophy in glacial climates. The large insulation of the ocean by the extensive sea ice cover changes the temperature boundary condition and the deepwater formation regions moves much further South. The nature of the instability is of oceanic origin, identical to that found in ocean models under mixed boundary conditions. With similar strengths of the oceanic circulation and rates of deep water formation for warm and cold climates, the loss of stability of the cold climate is due to the weak thermal stratification caused by the cooling of surface waters, the deep water temperatures being regulated by the temperature of freezing. Weaker stratification with similar overturning leads to a weakening of the meridional oceanic heat transport which is the major negative feedback stabilizing the oceanic circulation. Within the unstable regime periodic millennial oscillations occur spontaneously. The climate oscillates between a strong convective thermally driven oceanic state and a weak one driven by large salinity gradients. Both states are unstable. The atmosphere of low thermal inertia is carried along by the oceanic overturning while the variation of sea ice is out of phase with the oceanic heat content. During the abrupt warming events that punctuate the course of a millennial oscillation, sea ice variations are shown respectively to damp (amplify) the amplitude of the oceanic (atmospheric) response. This sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to a reduced concentration of greenhouse gases and to freshwater forcing adds support to the hypothesis that the millennial oscillations of the last glacial period, the so called Dansgaard - Oeschger events, may be internal instabilities of the climate system

  14. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

    OpenAIRE

    Couce, Elena M; Ridgwell, Andy J; Hendy, Erica

    2013-01-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world’s tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches...

  15. Depth perception: the need to report ocean biogeochemical rates as functions of temperature, not depth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Peter G; Peltzer, Edward T

    2017-09-13

    For over 50 years, ocean scientists have oddly represented ocean oxygen consumption rates as a function of depth but not temperature in most biogeochemical models. This unique tradition or tactic inhibits useful discussion of climate change impacts, where specific and fundamental temperature-dependent terms are required. Tracer-based determinations of oxygen consumption rates in the deep sea are nearly universally reported as a function of depth in spite of their well-known microbial basis. In recent work, we have shown that a carefully determined profile of oxygen consumption rates in the Sargasso Sea can be well represented by a classical Arrhenius function with an activation energy of 86.5 kJ mol -1 , leading to a Q 10 of 3.63. This indicates that for 2°C warming, we will have a 29% increase in ocean oxygen consumption rates, and for 3°C warming, a 47% increase, potentially leading to large-scale ocean hypoxia should a sufficient amount of organic matter be available to microbes. Here, we show that the same principles apply to a worldwide collation of tracer-based oxygen consumption rate data and that some 95% of ocean oxygen consumption is driven by temperature, not depth, and thus will have a strong climate dependence. The Arrhenius/Eyring equations are no simple panacea and they require a non-equilibrium steady state to exist. Where transient events are in progress, this stricture is not obeyed and we show one such possible example.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  16. Sensitivity of the Humboldt current system to global warming: a downscaling experiment of the IPSL-CM4 model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Echevin, Vincent [LOCEAN, Paris (France); Goubanova, Katerina; Dewitte, Boris [LEGOS, Toulouse (France); IMARPE, IGP, LEGOS, Lima (Peru); Belmadani, Ali [LOCEAN, Paris (France); LEGOS, Toulouse (France); University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States)

    2012-02-15

    The impact of climate warming on the seasonal variability of the Humboldt Current system ocean dynamics is investigated. The IPSL-CM4 large scale ocean circulation resulting from two contrasted climate scenarios, the so-called Preindustrial and quadrupling CO{sub 2}, are downscaled using an eddy-resolving regional ocean circulation model. The intense surface heating by the atmosphere in the quadrupling CO{sub 2} scenario leads to a strong increase of the surface density stratification, a thinner coastal jet, an enhanced Peru-Chile undercurrent, and an intensification of nearshore turbulence. Upwelling rates respond quasi-linearly to the change in wind stress associated with anthropogenic forcing, and show a moderate decrease in summer off Peru and a strong increase off Chile. Results from sensitivity experiments show that a 50% wind stress increase does not compensate for the surface warming resulting from heat flux forcing and that the associated mesoscale turbulence increase is a robust feature. (orig.)

  17. Different ecophysiological responses of freshwater fish to warming and acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesus, Tiago F; Rosa, Inês C; Repolho, Tiago; Lopes, Ana R; Pimentel, Marta S; Almeida-Val, Vera M F; Coelho, Maria M; Rosa, Rui

    2018-02-01

    Future climate change scenarios predict threatening outcomes to biodiversity. Available empirical data concerning biological response of freshwater fish to climate change remains scarce. In this study, we investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of two Iberian freshwater fish species (Squalius carolitertii and the endangered S. torgalensis), inhabiting different climatic conditions, to projected future scenarios of warming (+3°C) and acidification (ΔpH=-0.4). Herein, metabolic enzyme activities of glycolytic (citrate synthase - CS, lactate dehydrogenase - LDH) and antioxidant (glutathione S-transferase, catalase and superoxide dismutase) pathways, as well as the heat shock response (HSR) and lipid peroxidation were determined. Our results show that, under current water pH, warming causes differential interspecific changes on LDH activity, increasing and decreasing its activity in S. carolitertii and in S. torgalensis, respectively. Furthermore, the synergistic effect of warming and acidification caused an increase in LDH activity of S. torgalensis, comparing with the warming condition. As for CS activity, acidification significantly decreased its activity in S. carolitertii whereas in S. torgalensis no significant effect was observed. These results suggest that S. carolitertii is more vulnerable to climate change, possibly as the result of its evolutionary acclimatization to milder climatic condition, while S. torgalensis evolved in the warmer Mediterranean climate. However, significant changes in HSR were observed under the combined warming and acidification (S. carolitertii) or under acidification (S. torgalensis). Our results underlie the importance of conducting experimental studies and address species endpoint responses under projected climate change scenarios to improve conservation strategies, and to safeguard endangered freshwater fish. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Tom N; Garnett, Mark H; Ward, Susan E; Oakley, Simon; Bardgett, Richard D; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2016-05-01

    Northern peatlands have accumulated one third of the Earth's soil carbon stock since the last Ice Age. Rapid warming across northern biomes threatens to accelerate rates of peatland ecosystem respiration. Despite compensatory increases in net primary production, greater ecosystem respiration could signal the release of ancient, century- to millennia-old carbon from the peatland organic matter stock. Warming has already been shown to promote ancient peatland carbon release, but, despite the key role of vegetation in carbon dynamics, little is known about how plants influence the source of peatland ecosystem respiration. Here, we address this issue using in situ (14)C measurements of ecosystem respiration on an established peatland warming and vegetation manipulation experiment. Results show that warming of approximately 1 °C promotes respiration of ancient peatland carbon (up to 2100 years old) when dwarf-shrubs or graminoids are present, an effect not observed when only bryophytes are present. We demonstrate that warming likely promotes ancient peatland carbon release via its control over organic inputs from vascular plants. Our findings suggest that dwarf-shrubs and graminoids prime microbial decomposition of previously 'locked-up' organic matter from potentially deep in the peat profile, facilitating liberation of ancient carbon as CO2. Furthermore, such plant-induced peat respiration could contribute up to 40% of ecosystem CO2 emissions. If consistent across other subarctic and arctic ecosystems, this represents a considerable fraction of ecosystem respiration that is currently not acknowledged by global carbon cycle models. Ultimately, greater contribution of ancient carbon to ecosystem respiration may signal the loss of a previously stable peatland carbon pool, creating potential feedbacks to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Ocean heat content variability in an ensemble of twentieth century ocean reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boisséson, Eric; Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Mayer, Michael

    2017-08-01

    This paper presents a ten-member ensemble of twentieth century Ocean ReAnalyses called ORA-20C. ORA-20C assimilates temperature and salinity profiles and is forced by the ECMWF twentieth century atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-20C) over the 1900-2010 period. This study attempts to identify robust signals of ocean heat content change in ORA-20C and detect contamination by model errors, initial condition uncertainty, surface fluxes and observing system changes. It is shown that ORA-20C trends and variability in the first part of the century result from the surface fluxes and model drift towards a warmer mean state and weak meridional overturning circulation. The impact of the observing system in correcting the mean state causes the deceleration of the warming trend and alters the long-term climate signal. The ensemble spread reflects the long-lasting memory of the initial conditions and the convergence of the system to a solution compatible with surface fluxes, the ocean model and observational constraints. Observations constrain the ocean heat uptake trend in the last decades of the twentieth century, which is similar to trend estimations from the post-satellite era. An ocean heat budget analysis attributes ORA-20C heat content changes to surface fluxes in the first part of the century. The heat flux variability reflects spurious signals stemming from ERA-20C surface fields, which in return result from changes in the atmospheric observing system. The influence of the temperature assimilation increments on the heat budget is growing with time. Increments control the most recent ocean heat uptake signals, highlighting imbalances in forced reanalysis systems in the ocean as well as in the atmosphere.

  20. Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  1. Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, Govindasamy; Nag, Bappaditya [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change and Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India)

    2012-09-15

    A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO{sub 2} leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (-8.2 W m{sup -2}) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO{sub 2} (3.3 W m{sup -2}) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (-4.2 W m{sup -2}). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification. (orig.)

  2. The effect of sudden ice sheet melt on ocean circulation and surface climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Wickert, A. D.; Valdes, P. J.; Burke, A.

    2017-12-01

    Collapse of ice sheets can cause significant sea-level rise and widespread climate change. Around 14.6 thousand years ago, global mean sea level rose by 15 m in less than 350 years during an event known as Meltwater Pulse 1a. Ice sheet modelling and sea-level fingerprinting has suggested that approximately half of this 50 mm yr-1 sea level rise may have come from a North American ice Saddle Collapse that drained into the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. However, dating uncertainties make it difficult to determine the sequence of events and their drivers, leaving many fundamental questions. For example, was melting from the northern ice sheets responsible for the Older-Dryas or other global-scale cooling events, or did a contribution from Antarctica counteract the climatic effects? What was the role of the abrupt Bølling Warming? And how were all these signals linked to changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation?To address these questions, we examined the effect of the North American ice Saddle Collapse using a high resolution network drainage model coupled to an atmosphere-ocean-vegetation General Circulation Model. Here, we present the quantitative routing estimates of the consequent meltwater discharge and its impact on climate. We also tested a suite of more idealised meltwater forcing scenarios to examine the global influence of Arctic versus Antarctic ice melt. The results show that 50% of the Saddle Collapse meltwater pulse was routed via the Mackenzie River into the Arctic Ocean, and 50% was discharged directly into the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. This meltwater flux, equivalent to a total of 7.3 m of sea-level rise, caused a strong (6 Sv) weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling of 1-5 °C. The greatest cooling is in the Arctic (5-10 °C in the winter), but there is also significant winter warming over eastern North America (1-3 °C). We propose that this robust submillennial mechanism was

  3. Reactions to threatening health messages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ten Hoor, Gill A; Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Y; Kalagi, Janice; de Groot, Lianne; Grootjans, Karlijne; Huschens, Alexander; Köhninger, Constanze; Kölgen, Lizan; Pelssers, Isabelle; Schütt, Toby; Thomas, Sophia; Ruiter, Robert A C; Kok, Gerjo

    2012-11-21

    Threatening health messages that focus on severity are popular, but frequently have no effect or even a counterproductive effect on behavior change. This paradox (i.e. wide application despite low effectiveness) may be partly explained by the intuitive appeal of threatening communication: it may be hard to predict the defensive reactions occurring in response to fear appeals. We examine this hypothesis by using two studies by Brown and colleagues, which provide evidence that threatening health messages in the form of distressing imagery in anti-smoking and anti-alcohol campaigns cause defensive reactions. We simulated both Brown et al. experiments, asking participants to estimate the reactions of the original study subjects to the threatening health information (n = 93). Afterwards, we presented the actual original study outcomes. One week later, we assessed whether this knowledge of the actual study outcomes helped participants to more successfully estimate the effectiveness of the threatening health information (n = 72). Results showed that participants were initially convinced of the effectiveness of threatening health messages and were unable to anticipate the defensive reactions that in fact occurred. Furthermore, these estimates did not improve after participants had been explained the dynamics of threatening communication as well as what the effects of the threatening communication had been in reality. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the effectiveness of threatening health messages is intuitively appealing. What is more, providing empirical evidence against the use of threatening health messages has very little effect on this intuitive appeal.

  4. Future changes in coastal upwelling ecosystems with global warming: The case of the California Current System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiu, Peng; Chai, Fei; Curchitser, Enrique N; Castruccio, Frederic S

    2018-02-12

    Coastal upwelling ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, meaning that their response to climate change is of critical importance. Our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems is largely limited to the open ocean, mainly because coastal upwelling is poorly reproduced by current earth system models. Here, a high-resolution model is used to examine the response of nutrients and plankton dynamics to future climate change in the California Current System (CCS). The results show increased upwelling intensity associated with stronger alongshore winds in the coastal region, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in both the CCS and open ocean. Warming of the open ocean forces isotherms downwards, where they make contact with water masses with higher nutrient concentrations, thereby enhancing the nutrient flux to the deep source waters of the CCS. Increased winds and eddy activity further facilitate upward nutrient transport to the euphotic zone. However, the plankton community exhibits a complex and nonlinear response to increased nutrient input, as the food web dynamics tend to interact differently. This analysis highlights the difficulty in understanding how the marine ecosystem responds to a future warming climate, given to range of relevant processes operating at different scales.

  5. Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swann, Abigail L; Fung, Inez Y; Levis, Samuel; Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

    2010-01-26

    Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the next 100 years and increases in temperature will likely lead to changes in the distribution and makeup of the Arctic biosphere. A largely deciduous ecosystem has been suggested as a possible landscape for future Arctic vegetation and is seen in paleo-records of warm times in the past. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive terrestrial biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is up to 1.5 times larger than the forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea-ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea-ice.

  6. Orbital-scale Central Arctic Ocean Temperature Records from Benthic Foraminiferal δ18O and Ostracode Mg/Ca Ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, K.; Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G. S.; Farmer, J. R.; Poirier, R. K.; Schaller, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Orbital-scale climate variability is often amplified in the polar region, for example in changes in seawater temperature, sea-ice cover, deep-water formation, ecosystems, heat storage and carbon cycling. Yet, the relationship between the Arctic Ocean and global climate remains poorly understood due largely to limited orbital-scale paleoclimate records, the complicated nature of sea-ice response to climate and limited abundance of deep sea biological proxies. Here we reconstruct central Arctic Ocean bottom temperatures over the last 600 kyr using ostracode Mg/Ca ratios (genus Krithe) and benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratios (δ18Obf - I. teretis, O. tener, P. bulloides, C. reniforme, C. wuellerstorfi) in six sediment cores recovered from the Mendeleev and Northwind Ridges (700- 2726 m water depth). We examined glacial-interglacial cycles in Arctic seawater temperatures and Arctic δ18Obf chronostratigraphy to reconcile effects of changing bottom water temperature, ice volume and regional hydrography on δ18Obf records. Results show lower ( 10-12 mmol/mol) interglacial and higher ( 16-23 mmol/mol) glacial Mg/Ca ratios, signifying intermediate depth ocean warming during glacials of up to 2 ºC. These temperature maxima are likely related to a deepening of the halocline and the corresponding deeper influence of warm Atlantic water. Glacial-interglacial δ18Obf ranges are smaller in the Arctic ( 0.8-1‰ VPDB) than in the global ocean ( 1.8 ‰). However, when the distinct glacial-interglacial temperature histories of the Arctic (glacial warming) and global ocean (glacial cooling) are accounted for, both Arctic and global ocean seawater δ18O values (δ18Osw) exhibit similar 1.2-1.3 ‰ glacial-interglacial ranges. Thus, Arctic δ18Obf confirms glacial Arctic warming inferred from ostracode Mg/Ca. This study will discuss the strengths and limitations of applying paired Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope proxies in reconstructing more robust paleoceanographic changes in the

  7. History of oceanic front development in the New Zealand sector of the Southern Ocean during the Cenozoic: a synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, C.S.; Cooke, P.J.

    2001-01-01

    The New Zealand sector of the Southern Ocean (NZSSO) has opened about the Indian-Pacific spreading ridge throughout the Cenozoic. Today the NZSSO is characterised by broad zonal belts of antarctic (cold), subantarctic (cool), and subtropical (warm) surface-water masses separated by prominent oceanic fronts: the Subtropical Front (STF) c. 43 degrees S, Subantarctic Front (SAF) c. 50 degrees S, and Antarctic Polar Front (AAPF) c. 60 degrees S. Despite a meagre database, the broad pattern of Cenozoic evolution of these fronts is reviewed from the results of Deep Sea Drilling Project-based studies of sediment facies, microfossil assemblages and diversity, and stable isotope records, as well as from evidence in onland New Zealand Cenozoic sequences. Results are depicted schematically on seven paleogeographic maps covering the NZSSO at 10 m.y. intervals through the Cenozoic. During the Paleocene and most of the Eocene (65-35 Ma), the entire NZSSO was under the influence of warm to cool subtropical waters, with no detectable oceanic fronts. In the latest Eocene (c. 35 Ma), a proto-STF is shown separating subantarctic and subtropical waters offshore from Antarctica, near 65 degrees S paleolatitude. During the earliest Oligocene, this front was displaced northwards by development of an AAPF following major global cooling and biotic turnover associated with ice sheet expansion to sea level on East Antarctica. Early Oligocene full opening (c. 31 Ma) of the Tasmanian gateway initiated vigorous proto-circum-Antarctic flow of cold/cool waters, possibly through a West Antarctic seaway linking the southern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, including detached northwards 'jetting' onto the New Zealand plateau where condensation and unconformity development was widespread in cool-water carbonate facies. Since this time, a broad tripartite division of antarctic, subantarctic, and subtropical waters has existed in the NZSSO, including possible development of a proto-SAF within the

  8. Primary Life Stage Boron Isotope and Trace Elements Incorporation in Aposymbiotic Acropora millepora Coral under Ocean Acidification and Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry C. Wu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Early-life stages of reef-building corals are vital to coral existence and reef maintenance. It is therefore crucial to study juvenile coral response to future climate change pressures. Moreover, corals are known to be reliable recorders of environmental conditions in their skeletal materials. Aposymbiotic Acropora millepora larvae were cultured in different seawater temperature (27 and 29°C and pCO2 (390 and 750 μatm conditions to understand the impacts of “end of century” ocean acidification (OA and ocean warming (OW conditions on skeletal morphology and geochemistry. The experimental conditions impacted primary polyp juvenile coral skeletal morphology and growth resulting in asymmetric translucent appearances with brittle skeleton features. The impact of OA resulted in microstructure differences with decreased precipitation or lengthening of fasciculi and disorganized aragonite crystals that led to more concentrations of centers of calcifications. The coral skeletal δ11B composition measured by laser ablation MC-ICP-MS was significantly affected by pCO2 (p = 0.0024 and water temperature (p = 1.46 × 10−5. Reconstructed pH of the primary polyp skeleton using the δ11B proxy suggests a difference in coral calcification site and seawater pH consistent with previously observed coral pH up-regulation. Similarly, trace element results measured by laser ablation ICP-MS indicate the impact of pCO2. Primary polyp juvenile Sr/Ca ratio indicates a bias in reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST under higher pCO2 conditions. Coral microstructure content changes (center of calcification and fasciculi due to OA possibly contributed to the variability in B/Ca ratios. Our results imply that increasing OA and OW may lead to coral acclimation issues and species-specific inaccuracies of the commonly used Sr/Ca-SST proxy.

  9. Temperature trends with reduced impact of ocean air temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lansner, Frank; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    Temperature data 1900-2010 from meteorological stations across the world have been analysed and it has been found that all areas generally have two different valid temperature trends. Coastal stations and hill stations facing dominant ocean winds are normally more warm-trended than the valley sta...

  10. Temperature trends with reduced impact of ocean air temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lansner, Frank; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    2018-01-01

    Temperature data 1900–2010 from meteorological stations across the world have been analyzed and it has been found that all land areas generally have two different valid temperature trends. Coastal stations and hill stations facing ocean winds are normally more warm-trended than the valley station...

  11. Acidification and warming affect both a calcifying predator and prey, but not their interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landes, Anja; Zimmer, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Both ocean warming and acidification have been demonstrated to affect the growth, performance and reproductive success of calcifying invertebrates. However, relatively little is known regarding how such environmental change may affect interspecific interactions. We separately treated green crabs...... to environmental change. Acidification negatively affected the closer-muscle length of the crusher chela and correspondingly the claw-strength increment in C. maenas. The effects of warming and/or acidification on L. littorea were less consistent but indicated weaker shells in response to acidification...... Carcinus maenas and periwinkles Littorina littorea under conditions that mimicked either ambient conditions (control) or warming and acidification, both separately and in combination, for 5 mo. After 5 mo, the predators, prey and predator-prey interactions were screened for changes in response...

  12. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-06-03

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

  13. Impact of El Niño Variability on Oceanic Phytoplankton

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Fanny Racault

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Oceanic phytoplankton respond rapidly to a complex spectrum of climate-driven perturbations, confounding attempts to isolate the principal causes of observed changes. A dominant mode of variability in the Earth-climate system is that generated by the El Niño phenomenon. Marked variations are observed in the centroid of anomalous warming in the Equatorial Pacific under El Niño, associated with quite different alterations in environmental and biological properties. Here, using observational and reanalysis datasets, we differentiate the regional physical forcing mechanisms, and compile a global atlas of associated impacts on oceanic phytoplankton caused by two extreme types of El Niño. We find robust evidence that during Eastern Pacific (EP and Central Pacific (CP types of El Niño, impacts on phytoplankton can be felt everywhere, but tend to be greatest in the tropics and subtropics, encompassing up to 67% of the total affected areas, with the remaining 33% being areas located in high-latitudes. Our analysis also highlights considerable and sometimes opposing regional effects. During EP El Niño, we estimate decreases of −56 TgC/y in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and −82 TgC/y in the western Indian Ocean, and increase of +13 TgC/y in eastern Indian Ocean, whereas during CP El Niño, we estimate decreases −68 TgC/y in the tropical western Pacific Ocean and −10 TgC/y in the central Atlantic Ocean. We advocate that analysis of the dominant mechanisms forcing the biophysical under El Niño variability may provide a useful guide to improve our understanding of projected changes in the marine ecosystem in a warming climate and support development of adaptation and mitigation plans.

  14. Reactions to threatening health messages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ten Hoor Gill A

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Threatening health messages that focus on severity are popular, but frequently have no effect or even a counterproductive effect on behavior change. This paradox (i.e. wide application despite low effectiveness may be partly explained by the intuitive appeal of threatening communication: it may be hard to predict the defensive reactions occurring in response to fear appeals. We examine this hypothesis by using two studies by Brown and colleagues, which provide evidence that threatening health messages in the form of distressing imagery in anti-smoking and anti-alcohol campaigns cause defensive reactions. Methods We simulated both Brown et al. experiments, asking participants to estimate the reactions of the original study subjects to the threatening health information (n = 93. Afterwards, we presented the actual original study outcomes. One week later, we assessed whether this knowledge of the actual study outcomes helped participants to more successfully estimate the effectiveness of the threatening health information (n = 72. Results Results showed that participants were initially convinced of the effectiveness of threatening health messages and were unable to anticipate the defensive reactions that in fact occurred. Furthermore, these estimates did not improve after participants had been explained the dynamics of threatening communication as well as what the effects of the threatening communication had been in reality. Conclusions These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the effectiveness of threatening health messages is intuitively appealing. What is more, providing empirical evidence against the use of threatening health messages has very little effect on this intuitive appeal.

  15. Drift in ocean currents impacts intergenerational microbial exposure to temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doblin, Martina A.; Van Sebille, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Microbes are the foundation of marine ecosystems [Falkowski PG, Fenchel T, Delong EF (2008) Science 320(5879):1034-1039]. Until now, the analytical framework for understanding the implications of ocean warming on microbes has not considered thermal exposure during transport in dynamic seascapes,

  16. Ocean Acidification: Investigation and Presentation of the Effects of Elevated Carbon Dioxide Levels on Seawater Chemistry and Calcareous Organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buth, Jeffrey M.

    2016-01-01

    Ocean acidification refers to the process by which seawater absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, producing aqueous carbonic acid. Acidic conditions increase the solubility of calcium carbonate, threatening corals and other calcareous organisms that depend on it for protective structures. The global nature of ocean acidification and the…

  17. Impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the marine nitrogen cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez-Rey, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The marine nitrogen cycle is responsible for two climate feedbacks in the Earth System. Firstly, it modulates the fixed nitrogen pool available for phytoplankton growth and hence it modulates in part the strength of the biological pump, one of the mechanisms contributing to the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 . Secondly, the nitrogen cycle produces a powerful greenhouse gas and ozone (O 3 ) depletion agent called nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Future changes of the nitrogen cycle in response to global warming, ocean deoxygenation and ocean acidification are largely unknown. Processes such as N 2 -fixation, nitrification, denitrification and N 2 O production will experience changes under the simultaneous effect of these three stressors. Global ocean biogeochemical models allow us to study such interactions. Using NEMO-PISCES and the CMIP5 model ensemble we project changes in year 2100 under the business-as-usual high CO 2 emissions scenario in global scale N 2 -fixation rates, nitrification rates, N 2 O production and N 2 O sea-to-air fluxes adding CO 2 sensitive functions into the model parameterizations. Second order effects due to the combination of global warming in tandem with ocean acidification on the fixed nitrogen pool, primary productivity and N 2 O radiative forcing feedbacks are also evaluated in this thesis. (author) [fr

  18. Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G. [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change, Bangalore (India); Indian Institute of Science, Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India); Caldeira, Ken; Cao, Long; Ban-Weiss, George; Shin, Ho-Jeong [Carnegie Institution, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, CA (United States); Nemani, Rama [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States)

    2011-09-15

    Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO{sub 2} changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management ''geoengineering'' proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale. (orig.)

  19. Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

    2017-07-01

    Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. In a warming climate, just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Landman7_2011.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 3538 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Landman7_2011.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 In a warming climate... at UK Met Office N9 members SA Japan UKUSA USA Brazil* SA SASA * IBSA-Ocean In use Near future Far future VCM/UTCM ENSEMBLES Strong anthropogenically forced warming trends have been observed over southern Africa and are projected...

  1. Volcanic signals in oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2009-08-22

    Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

  2. A Review of Ocean/Sea Subsurface Water Temperature Studies from Remote Sensing and Non-Remote Sensing Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elahe Akbari

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Oceans/Seas are important components of Earth that are affected by global warming and climate change. Recent studies have indicated that the deeper oceans are responsible for climate variability by changing the Earth’s ecosystem; therefore, assessing them has become more important. Remote sensing can provide sea surface data at high spatial/temporal resolution and with large spatial coverage, which allows for remarkable discoveries in the ocean sciences. The deep layers of the ocean/sea, however, cannot be directly detected by satellite remote sensors. Therefore, researchers have examined the relationships between salinity, height, and temperature of the oceans/Seas to estimate their subsurface water temperature using dynamical models and model-based data assimilation (numerical based and statistical approaches, which simulate these parameters by employing remotely sensed data and in situ measurements. Due to the requirements of comprehensive perception and the importance of global warming in decision making and scientific studies, this review provides comprehensive information on the methods that are used to estimate ocean/sea subsurface water temperature from remotely and non-remotely sensed data. To clarify the subsurface processes, the challenges, limitations, and perspectives of the existing methods are also investigated.

  3. Zooplankton excretion metabolites stimulate Southern Ocean phytoplankton growth

    KAUST Repository

    Coello-Camba, A.; Llabré s, M.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Agusti, Susana

    2017-01-01

    Warming over Antarctica is leading to changes in the zooplankton communities inhabiting the Southern Ocean. It has been observed that zooplankton not only regulates phytoplankton through grazing, but also through the recycling of nutrients that are essential for phytoplankton growth. In this way, the effects of warming on zooplankton populations will change the amount or proportion at which recycled nutrients are restored. To estimate how the recycled nutrients released by zooplankton populations, dominated by krill (Euphausia superba), amphipods or copepods, affect the phytoplankton uptake and communities, we performed four incubation experiments: two close to the Antarctic Peninsula and two at the Southern Atlantic Ocean. Our results showed a stimulating effect of the addition of metabolites on ammonia removal rates and on the net growth of phytoplankton communities, with different responses amongst the different phytoplankton groups. According to our results, phytoplankton net growth and community composition may be altered if this relevant source of nutrients is lost due to projected changes in the abundance or distribution of these zooplankton populations.

  4. Zooplankton excretion metabolites stimulate Southern Ocean phytoplankton growth

    KAUST Repository

    Coello-Camba, A.

    2017-04-24

    Warming over Antarctica is leading to changes in the zooplankton communities inhabiting the Southern Ocean. It has been observed that zooplankton not only regulates phytoplankton through grazing, but also through the recycling of nutrients that are essential for phytoplankton growth. In this way, the effects of warming on zooplankton populations will change the amount or proportion at which recycled nutrients are restored. To estimate how the recycled nutrients released by zooplankton populations, dominated by krill (Euphausia superba), amphipods or copepods, affect the phytoplankton uptake and communities, we performed four incubation experiments: two close to the Antarctic Peninsula and two at the Southern Atlantic Ocean. Our results showed a stimulating effect of the addition of metabolites on ammonia removal rates and on the net growth of phytoplankton communities, with different responses amongst the different phytoplankton groups. According to our results, phytoplankton net growth and community composition may be altered if this relevant source of nutrients is lost due to projected changes in the abundance or distribution of these zooplankton populations.

  5. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

  6. Giant Clams and Rising CO2: Light May Ameliorate Effects of Ocean Acidification on a Solar-Powered Animal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sue-Ann Watson

    Full Text Available Global climate change and ocean acidification pose a serious threat to marine life. Marine invertebrates are particularly susceptible to ocean acidification, especially highly calcareous taxa such as molluscs, echinoderms and corals. The largest of all bivalve molluscs, giant clams, are already threatened by a variety of local pressures, including overharvesting, and are in decline worldwide. Several giant clam species are listed as 'Vulnerable' on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and now climate change and ocean acidification pose an additional threat to their conservation. Unlike most other molluscs, giant clams are 'solar-powered' animals containing photosynthetic algal symbionts suggesting that light could influence the effects of ocean acidification on these vulnerable animals. In this study, juvenile fluted giant clams Tridacna squamosa were exposed to three levels of carbon dioxide (CO2 (control ~400, mid ~650 and high ~950 μatm and light (photosynthetically active radiation 35, 65 and 304 μmol photons m-2 s-1. Elevated CO2 projected for the end of this century (~650 and ~950 μatm reduced giant clam survival and growth at mid-light levels. However, effects of CO2 on survival were absent at high-light, with 100% survival across all CO2 levels. Effects of CO2 on growth of surviving clams were lessened, but not removed, at high-light levels. Shell growth and total animal mass gain were still reduced at high-CO2. This study demonstrates the potential for light to alleviate effects of ocean acidification on survival and growth in a threatened calcareous marine invertebrate. Managing water quality (e.g. turbidity and sedimentation in coastal areas to maintain water clarity may help ameliorate some negative effects of ocean acidification on giant clams and potentially other solar-powered calcifiers, such as hard corals.

  7. Giant Clams and Rising CO2: Light May Ameliorate Effects of Ocean Acidification on a Solar-Powered Animal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Sue-Ann

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change and ocean acidification pose a serious threat to marine life. Marine invertebrates are particularly susceptible to ocean acidification, especially highly calcareous taxa such as molluscs, echinoderms and corals. The largest of all bivalve molluscs, giant clams, are already threatened by a variety of local pressures, including overharvesting, and are in decline worldwide. Several giant clam species are listed as 'Vulnerable' on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and now climate change and ocean acidification pose an additional threat to their conservation. Unlike most other molluscs, giant clams are 'solar-powered' animals containing photosynthetic algal symbionts suggesting that light could influence the effects of ocean acidification on these vulnerable animals. In this study, juvenile fluted giant clams Tridacna squamosa were exposed to three levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) (control ~400, mid ~650 and high ~950 μatm) and light (photosynthetically active radiation 35, 65 and 304 μmol photons m-2 s-1). Elevated CO2 projected for the end of this century (~650 and ~950 μatm) reduced giant clam survival and growth at mid-light levels. However, effects of CO2 on survival were absent at high-light, with 100% survival across all CO2 levels. Effects of CO2 on growth of surviving clams were lessened, but not removed, at high-light levels. Shell growth and total animal mass gain were still reduced at high-CO2. This study demonstrates the potential for light to alleviate effects of ocean acidification on survival and growth in a threatened calcareous marine invertebrate. Managing water quality (e.g. turbidity and sedimentation) in coastal areas to maintain water clarity may help ameliorate some negative effects of ocean acidification on giant clams and potentially other solar-powered calcifiers, such as hard corals.

  8. Wet-to-dry shift over Southwest China in 1994 tied to the warming of tropical warm pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Huang, Gang; Chen, Wen; Zhou, Wen; Wang, Weiqiang

    2018-01-01

    The autumn climate in Southwest China (SWC) experienced a notable wet-to-dry shift in 1994. Associated with this change in precipitation, decadal signatures of large-scale atmospheric circulation and SST identify a likely dynamical origin: the tropical warm pool (TWP) consisting of tropical northwest Pacific (TNWP, 3°S-12°N and 110°E-150°E) sector and tropical east Indian Ocean (TEI, 10°S-3°N and 80°E-110°E) sector. A cold-to-warm phase switch of TWP SST occurred in 1994, coinciding exactly with the timing of the regime transition of SWC precipitation. During post-1994 period, warm states in the TNWP and TEI sectors plays in a synergistic fashion to invoke dry decades in SWC. On the one side, warm SST over the TNWP sector excites an anomalous cyclone centered on the South China Sea directed opposite to the climatological moisture transport and strengthened zonal wind to its west accompanied by a weakening of the poleward flux; on the other side, warm SST over the TEI sector acts to intensify inflow into TEI with less concurrent transfer of moisture to SWC and to steer moisture to the northern Arabic Sea and away from the SWC-oriented track. Meanwhile, the troposphere over SWC is capped by subsidence, which is jointly contributed by TNWP and TEI. It then follows a reduced moisture supply, suppressed convective activity, and anomalous divergence in SWC, bringing a precipitation deficit there. In contrast, cold TWP SST during 1961-1994 favors wet conditions in SWC, given a perfectly symmetrical circulation pattern. Further, the dominant role of TWP is confirmed, because the modeled response to TWP SST forcing alone bears a great resemblance to the observed evidence. Finally, it is also found that the teleconnected influence induced by TWP is stronger in southern SWC than in northern SWC, which explains the south-north gradient of interdecadal signal of SWC precipitation.

  9. Coral bleaching under unconventional scenarios of climate warming and ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, Lester; Cox, Peter; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Wiltshire, Andy J.

    2015-08-01

    Elevated sea surface temperatures have been shown to cause mass coral bleaching. Widespread bleaching, affecting >90% of global coral reefs and causing coral degradation, has been projected to occur by 2050 under all climate forcing pathways adopted by the IPCC for use within the Fifth Assessment Report. These pathways include an extremely ambitious pathway aimed to limit global mean temperature rise to 2 °C (ref. ; Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6--RCP2.6), which assumes full participation in emissions reductions by all countries, and even the possibility of negative emissions. The conclusions drawn from this body of work, which applied widely used algorithms to estimate coral bleaching, are that we must either accept that the loss of a large percentage of the world’s coral reefs is inevitable, or consider technological solutions to buy those reefs time until atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be reduced. Here we analyse the potential for geoengineering, through stratospheric aerosol-based solar radiation management (SRM), to reduce the extent of global coral bleaching relative to ambitious climate mitigation. Exploring the common criticism of geoengineering--that ocean acidification and its impacts will continue unabated--we focus on the sensitivity of results to the aragonite saturation state dependence of bleaching. We do not, however, address the additional detrimental impacts of ocean acidification on processes such as coral calcification that will further determine the benefit to corals of any SRM-based scenario. Despite the sensitivity of thermal bleaching thresholds to ocean acidification being uncertain, stabilizing radiative forcing at 2020 levels through SRM reduces the risk of global bleaching relative to RCP2.6 under all acidification-bleaching relationships analysed.

  10. The next generation of iron fertilization experiments in the southern Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Smetacek, V.; Naqvi, S.W.A.

    Of the various macro-engineering schemes proposed to mitigate global warming, ocean iron fertilization (OIF) is one that could be started at short notice on relevant scales. It is based on the reasoning that adding trace amounts of iron to iron...

  11. Shifting baselines in Antarctic ecosystems; ecophysiological response to warming in Lissarca miliaris at Signy Island, Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Adam J; Thatje, Sven; Linse, Katrin

    2012-01-01

    The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid increase in atmospheric temperature over the last 50 years. Whether or not marine organisms thriving in this cold stenothermal environment are able to cope with warming is of concern. Here, we present changes to the growth and shell characteristics of the ecologically important, small and short lived brooding bivalve Lissarca miliaris from Signy Island, Antarctica. Using material collected from the 1970's to the present day, we show an increase in growth rate and adult shell deterioration accompanied by a decrease in offspring size, associated with an increase in annual average temperatures. Critical changes to the bivalve's ecology seen today evidence the problem of a shift in baseline since the onset of warming recorded in Antarctica. These small bivalves are demonstrating ecophysiological responses to subtle warming that, provided warming continues, could soon surpass a physiological tipping point, adding to warming associated threats such as increased predatory pressure and ocean acidification.

  12. Shifting baselines in Antarctic ecosystems; ecophysiological response to warming in Lissarca miliaris at Signy Island, Antarctica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J Reed

    Full Text Available The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid increase in atmospheric temperature over the last 50 years. Whether or not marine organisms thriving in this cold stenothermal environment are able to cope with warming is of concern. Here, we present changes to the growth and shell characteristics of the ecologically important, small and short lived brooding bivalve Lissarca miliaris from Signy Island, Antarctica. Using material collected from the 1970's to the present day, we show an increase in growth rate and adult shell deterioration accompanied by a decrease in offspring size, associated with an increase in annual average temperatures. Critical changes to the bivalve's ecology seen today evidence the problem of a shift in baseline since the onset of warming recorded in Antarctica. These small bivalves are demonstrating ecophysiological responses to subtle warming that, provided warming continues, could soon surpass a physiological tipping point, adding to warming associated threats such as increased predatory pressure and ocean acidification.

  13. The evolution of a coupled ice shelf-ocean system under different climate states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosfeld, Klaus; Sandhäger, Henner

    2004-07-01

    Based on a new approach for coupled applications of an ice shelf model and an ocean general circulation model, we investigate the evolution of an ice shelf-ocean system and its sensitivity to changed climatic boundary conditions. Combining established 3D models into a coupled model system enabled us to study the reaction and feedbacks of each component to changes at their interface, the ice shelf base. After calculating the dynamics for prescribed initial ice shelf and bathymetric geometries, the basal mass balance determines the system evolution. In order to explore possible developments for given boundary conditions, an idealized geometry has been chosen, reflecting basic features of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The model system is found to be especially sensitive in regions where high ablation or accretion rates occur. Ice Shelf Water formation as well as the build up of a marine ice body, resulting from accretion of marine ice, is simulated, indicating strong interaction processes. To improve consistency between modeled and observed ice shelf behavior, we incorporate the typical cycle of steady ice front advance and sudden retreat due to tabular iceberg calving in our time-dependent simulations. Our basic hypothesis is that iceberg break off is associated with abrupt crack propagation along elongated anomalies of the inherent stress field of the ice body. This new concept yields glaciologically plausible results and represents an auspicious basis for the development of a thorough calving criterion. Experiments under different climatic conditions (ocean warming of 0.2 and 0.5 °C and doubled surface accumulation rates) show the coupled model system to be sensitive especially to ocean warming. Increased basal melt rates of 100% for the 0.5 °C ocean warming scenario and an asymmetric development of ice shelf thicknesses suggest a high vulnerability of ice shelf regions, which represent pivotal areas between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern

  14. Human activities threaten coral reefs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveitdal, Svein; Bjoerke, Aake

    2002-01-01

    Research indicates that 58 per cent of the coral reefs of the world are threatened by human activities. Pollution and global heating represent some of the threats. Coral reefs just beneath the surface of the sea are very sensitive to temperature changes. Since 1979, mass death of coral reefs has been reported increasingly often. More than 1000 marine species live in the coral reefs, among these are one fourth of all marine species of fish. It is imperative that the coral reefs be preserved, as coastal communities all over the world depend on them as sources of food and as they are the raw materials for important medicines. The article discusses the threats to the coral reefs in general and does not single out any particular energy-related activity as the principal threat. For instance, the El-Nino phenomenon of the Pacific Ocean is probably involved in mass death of coral reefs and in the North Sea large parts of deep-water reefs have been crushed by heavy beam trawlers fishing for bottom fish

  15. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-08-21

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  16. Marine ecosystems in alteration under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prestrud, Paal

    2004-01-01

    It is commonly thought among fishermen, researchers and in the fishing industries that the administration and harvesting of the fish resources is more important for the stock of fish than are changes in the climate. However, many scientific investigations now link changes in temperature with changes in the spreading, survival and beginning of life processes. There is solid evidence that there are important changes in progress in the North Atlantic marine ecosystem caused by global warming. If the heating of the water masses continues, it will probably have a large impact on the ocean's productivity and consequently for the fishing industry

  17. Ocean acidification impacts mussel control on biomineralisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzer, Susan C; Phoenix, Vernon R; Cusack, Maggie; Kamenos, Nicholas A

    2014-08-28

    Ocean acidification is altering the oceanic carbonate saturation state and threatening the survival of marine calcifying organisms. Production of their calcium carbonate exoskeletons is dependent not only on the environmental seawater carbonate chemistry but also the ability to produce biominerals through proteins. We present shell growth and structural responses by the economically important marine calcifier Mytilus edulis to ocean acidification scenarios (380, 550, 750, 1000 µatm pCO2). After six months of incubation at 750 µatm pCO2, reduced carbonic anhydrase protein activity and shell growth occurs in M. edulis. Beyond that, at 1000 µatm pCO2, biomineralisation continued but with compensated metabolism of proteins and increased calcite growth. Mussel growth occurs at a cost to the structural integrity of the shell due to structural disorientation of calcite crystals. This loss of structural integrity could impact mussel shell strength and reduce protection from predators and changing environments.

  18. Sustaining observations of the unsteady ocean circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frajka-Williams, E

    2014-09-28

    Sustained observations of ocean properties reveal a global warming trend and rising sea levels. These changes have been documented by traditional ship-based measurements of ocean properties, whereas more recent Argo profiling floats and satellite records permit estimates of ocean changes on a near real-time basis. Through these and newer methods of observing the oceans, scientists are moving from quantifying the 'state of the ocean' to monitoring its variability, and distinguishing the physical processes bringing signals of change. In this paper, I give a brief overview of the UK contributions to the physical oceanographic observations, and the role they have played in the wider global observing systems. While temperature and salinity are the primary measurements of physical oceanography, new transbasin mooring arrays also resolve changes in ocean circulation on daily timescales. Emerging technologies permit routine observations at higher-than-ever spatial resolutions. Following this, I then give a personal perspective on the future of sustained observations. New measurement techniques promise exciting discoveries concerning the role of smaller scales and boundary processes in setting the large-scale ocean circulation and the ocean's role in climate. The challenges now facing the scientific community include sustaining critical observations in the case of funding system changes or shifts in government priorities. These long records will enable a determination of the role and response of the ocean to climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  19. Subtropical Arctic Ocean temperatures during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sluijs, A.; Schouten, S.; Pagani, M.; Woltering, M.; Brinkhuis, H.; Damste, J.S.S.; Dickens, G.R.; Huber, M.; Reichart, G.-J.; Stein, R.; Matthiessen, J.; Lourens, L.J.; Pedentchouk, N.; Backman, J.; Moran, K.; Clemens, S.; Cronin, T.; Eynaud, F.; Gattacceca, J.; Jakobsson, M.; Jordan, R.; Kaminski, M.; King, J.; Koc, N.; Martinez, N.C.; McInroy, D.; Moore, T.C.; O'Regan, M.; Onodera, J.; Palike, H.; Rea, B.; Rio, D.; Sakamoto, T.; Smith, D.C.; St John, K.E.K.; Suto, I.; Suzuki, N.; Takahashi, K.; Watanabe, M. E.; Yamamoto, M.

    2006-01-01

    The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum, ???55 million years ago, was a brief period of widespread, extreme climatic warming, that was associated with massive atmospheric greenhouse gas input. Although aspects of the resulting environmental changes are well documented at low latitudes, no data were available to quantify simultaneous changes in the Arctic region. Here we identify the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum in a marine sedimentary sequence obtained during the Arctic Coring Expedition. We show that sea surface temperatures near the North Pole increased from ???18??C to over 23??C during this event. Such warm values imply the absence of ice and thus exclude the influence of ice-albedo feedbacks on this Arctic warming. At the same time, sea level rose while anoxic and euxinic conditions developed in the ocean's bottom waters and photic zone, respectively. Increasing temperature and sea level match expectations based on palaeoclimate model simulations, but the absolute polar temperatures that we derive before, during and after the event are more than 10??C warmer than those model-predicted. This suggests that higher-than-modern greenhouse gas concentrations must have operated in conjunction with other feedback mechanisms-perhaps polar stratospheric clouds or hurricane-induced ocean mixing-to amplify early Palaeogene polar temperatures. ?? 2006 Nature Publishing Group.

  20. Seasonality in the relationship between El Nino and Indian Ocean dipole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roxy, Mathew [Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Centre for Climate Change Research, Pune (India); Gualdi, Silvio; Navarra, Antonio [Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Lee Drbohlav, Hae-Kyung [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2011-07-15

    The seasonal change in the relationship between El Nino and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is examined using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and the twentieth century simulations (20c3m) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model, version 2.1. It is found that, both in ERA-40 and the model simulations, the correlation between El Nino (Nino3 index) and the eastern part of the IOD (90-110 E; 10 S-equator) is predominantly positive from January to June, and then changes to negative from July to December. Correlation maps of atmospheric and oceanic variables with respect to the Nino3 index are constructed for each season in order to examine the spatial structure of their seasonal response to El Nino. The occurrence of El Nino conditions during January to March induces low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean, which counteracts the climatological cyclonic circulation in that region. As a result, evaporation decreases and the southeastern Indian Ocean warms up as the El Nino proceeds, and weaken the development of a positive phase of an IOD. This warming of the southeastern Indian Ocean associated with the El Nino does not exist past June because the climatological winds there develop into the monsoon-type flow, enhancing the anomalous circulation over the region. Furthermore, the development of El Nino from July to September induces upwelling in the southeastern Indian Ocean, thereby contributing to further cooling of the region during the summer season. This results in the enhancement of a positive phase of an IOD. Once the climatological circulation shifts from the boreal summer to winter mode, the negative correlation between El Nino and SST of the southeastern Indian Ocean changes back to a positive one. (orig.)